WorldWideScience

Sample records for short-term energy supply

  1. Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the second quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding

  2. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Quarterly projections. Fourth quarter 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-05

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

  3. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-08-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The principal users of the Outlook are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1992 through the fourth quarter of 1993. Values for the second quarter of 1992, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding

  4. Short-term energy outlook, July 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  5. Measuring Short-term Energy Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Ensuring energy security has been at the centre of the IEA mission since its inception, following the oil crises of the early 1970s. While the security of oil supplies remains important, contemporary energy security policies must address all energy sources and cover a comprehensive range of natural, economic and political risks that affect energy sources, infrastructures and services. In response to this challenge, the IEA is currently developing a Model Of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) to evaluate the energy security risks and resilience capacities of its member countries. The current version of MOSES covers short-term security of supply for primary energy sources and secondary fuels among IEA countries. It also lays the foundation for analysis of vulnerabilities of electricity and end-use energy sectors. MOSES contains a novel approach to analysing energy security, which can be used to identify energy security priorities, as a starting point for national energy security assessments and to track the evolution of a country's energy security profile. By grouping together countries with similar 'energy security profiles', MOSES depicts the energy security landscape of IEA countries. By extending the MOSES methodology to electricity security and energy services in the future, the IEA aims to develop a comprehensive policy-relevant perspective on global energy security. This Brochure provides and overview of the analysis and results. Readers interested in an in-depth discussion of methodology are referred to the MOSES Working Paper.

  6. Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, second quarter 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates, are available on the Internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The paper discusses outlook assumptions; US energy prices; world oil supply and the oil production cutback agreement of March 1998; international oil demand and supply; world oil stocks, capacity, and net trade; US oil demand and supply; US natural gas demand and supply; US coal demand and supply; US electricity demand and supply; US renewable energy demand; and US energy demand and supply sensitivities. 29 figs., 19 tabs.

  7. Short-term energy outlook, January 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from January 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the fourth quarter 1998, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the January 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  8. Designing indicators of long-term energy supply security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, J.C.; Van Arkel, W.G.; Boots, M.G.

    2004-01-01

    To our knowledge, so far amazingly little research work has been undertaken to construct meaningful indicators of long-run energy supply security for a particular nation or region. Currently, in addressing energy supply security, policy makers tend to emphasise short-term supply disruptions. In contrast, this pre-study accords with the broader Sustainability Outlook in considering the long-term perspective. This report starts with taking stock, in a concise way, of the official EU energy outlook and issues related to the opportunities to administer changes in the energy mix at the level of major energy use categories. Then a brief survey of relevant literature is made on long-term strategies to ensure survival of systems - be it biological, social, etc. - in an environment largely characterised by high uncertainty and a lot of unchartered territory. We found the work of Andrew Stirling very inspiring in this context. Based on his work and considering the limitations of the present research activity, we retained the Shannon index as the best 'simple' indicator of diversity. In the core of the report, the Shannon index is elaborated into four indicators of long-term energy supply security. Stepwise, additional aspects of long-term energy supply security are introduced. These aspects are: Diversification of energy sources in energy supply; Diversification of imports with respect to imported energy sources; Long-term political stability in regions of origin; The resource base in regions of origin, including the home region/country itself. After small adjustments to allow for data availability, these indicators were applied to the reference year 2030 of four long-term scenarios with data of base year 1995 and projections for underlying variables provided by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP). Preliminary interpretation of the results suggests the usefulness of the indicators presented in this report. A second activity undertaken in this report was

  9. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-10-14

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for printed publication in January, April, July, and October in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates on or about the 6th of each interim month, are available on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the fourth quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. 19 tabs.

  10. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, first quarter 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-02-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the fourth quarter of 1994, however, are preliminary EIA estimates or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the first quarter 1995 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. The EIA model is available on computer tape from the National Technical Information Service

  11. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, 2nd quarter 1994

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-05-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1994 through the fourth quarter of 1995. Values for the first quarter of 1994, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available. The historical energy data, compiled into the second quarter 1994 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the STIFS. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. The EIA model is available on computer tape from the National Technical Information Service.

  12. The IEA Model of Short-term Energy Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Ensuring energy security has been at the centre of the IEA mission since its inception, following the oil crises of the early 1970s. While the security of oil supplies remains important, contemporary energy security policies must address all energy sources and cover a comprehensive range of natural, economic and political risks that affect energy sources, infrastructures and services. In response to this challenge, the IEA is currently developing a Model Of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) to evaluate the energy security risks and resilience capacities of its member countries. The current version of MOSES covers short-term security of supply for primary energy sources and secondary fuels among IEA countries. It also lays the foundation for analysis of vulnerabilities of electricity and end-use energy sectors. MOSES contains a novel approach to analysing energy security, which can be used to identify energy security priorities, as a starting point for national energy security assessments and to track the evolution of a country's energy security profile. By grouping together countries with similar 'energy security profiles', MOSES depicts the energy security landscape of IEA countries. By extending the MOSES methodology to electricity security and energy services in the future, the IEA aims to develop a comprehensive policy-relevant perspective on global energy security. This Working Paper is intended for readers who wish to explore the MOSES methodology in depth; there is also a brochure which provides an overview of the analysis and results.

  13. Short-term energy outlook, October 1998. Quarterly projections, 1998 4. quarter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-10-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the Internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from October 1998 through December 1999. Values for third quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the October 1998 version of the Short-term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding.

  14. The role of nuclear energy for Korean long-term energy supply strategy : application of energy demand-supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chae, Kyu Nam

    1995-02-01

    An energy demand and supply analysis is carried out to establish the future nuclear energy system of Korea in the situation of environmental restriction and resource depletion. Based on the useful energy intensity concept, a long-term energy demand forecasting model FIN2USE is developed to integrate with a supply model. The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Long-term demand for useful energy used as an exogeneous input of the energy supply model is derived from the trend of useful energy intensity by sectors and energy carriers. Supply-side optimization is performed for the overall energy system linked with the reactor and nuclear fuel cycle strategy. The limitation of fossil fuel resources and the CO 2 emission constraints are reflected as determinants of the future energy system. As a result of optimization of energy system using linear programming with the objective of total discounted system cost, the optimal energy system is obtained with detailed results on the nuclear sector for various scenarios. It is shown that the relative importance of nuclear energy would increase especially in the cases of CO 2 emission constraint. It is concluded that nuclear reactor strategy and fuel cycle strategy should be incorporated with national energy strategy and be changed according to environmental restriction and energy demand scenarios. It is shown that this modelling approach is suitable for a decision support system of nuclear energy policy

  15. Short-term energy outlook, April 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-04-01

    The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from April 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the first quarter 1999, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the April 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated forecasting system (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 25 figs., 19 tabs.

  16. Short-term energy outlook, annual supplement 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-08-01

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (Supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts

  17. Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1993-08-06

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

  18. Long-term strategies in world energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefele, W.

    1980-01-01

    The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis of Laxenburg, Austria has carried out a comprehensive systems analysis in which the problems of the long-term world energy supply are treated first qualitatively and then quantiatively. The results of this five-year study have been published in a book entitled 'Energy in a Finite World: a Global Energy Systems Analysis.' This summary of the book indicates that the world's energy supply in the next fifty years will not be limited by resources, but the rates at which new technologies will be built up. (orig.) [de

  19. Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Coq, Chloe [SITE, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, Stockholm 11383 (Sweden); Paltseva, Elena [Department of Economics, Copenhagen University, Oester Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, 1353 Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2009-11-15

    The security of energy supply is one of the main objectives of EU energy policy. In this paper, we introduce an index designed to evaluate the short-term risks associated with the external supply of energy to the EU Member States. It combines measures of energy import diversification, political risks of the supplying country, risk associated with energy transit, and the economic impact of a supply disruption. We construct separate indexes for three primary energy types, oil, gas and coal, and demonstrate that Member States' levels of supply risk exposure differ across energies. Most other studies of this kind provide aggregate indexes combining different types of energy. Our results suggest that an aggregate approach could be misleading, at least for discussions of the short-term response to risks. We discuss the implications of our findings for the common energy policy. (author)

  20. Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Coq, Chloe; Paltseva, Elena

    2009-01-01

    The security of energy supply is one of the main objectives of EU energy policy. In this paper, we introduce an index designed to evaluate the short-term risks associated with the external supply of energy to the EU Member States. It combines measures of energy import diversification, political risks of the supplying country, risk associated with energy transit, and the economic impact of a supply disruption. We construct separate indexes for three primary energy types, oil, gas and coal, and demonstrate that Member States' levels of supply risk exposure differ across energies. Most other studies of this kind provide aggregate indexes combining different types of energy. Our results suggest that an aggregate approach could be misleading, at least for discussions of the short-term response to risks. We discuss the implications of our findings for the common energy policy. (author)

  1. Energy supply and demand result in fiscal 1995 and a short-term prospect. Report submitted by the energy supply and demand trend investigation committee; 1995 nendo energy jukyu jisseki to tanki tenbo. Energy jukyu doko chosa iinkai hokoku

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-10-01

    This paper describes the energy demand and supply result in fiscal 1995 and a short-term prospect. The business condition in Japan is regaining some brightness. While the net GDP growth has stayed at 0.9%, the domestic primary energy supply has increased by 2.9% and the final energy consumption by 3.2% over the previous year, respectively. The energy consumption has increased by 3.7% with the background of increase in production levels in the industrial department in material industries induced by external demand. The consumer department showed as high growth as 5.1% centering on household room heating due to cold winter. The business and transportation departments presented an increase of 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively. Sharp growth of 3.0% was shown in the net GDP during January through March, 1996, having the net GDP growth rate for fiscal 1995 escaped from zero growth that has lasted three years. The recovery of the domestic business condition is moving gradually centering on the consumer demand, wherein the point to be focused from now on is how much the recovery can compensate for decline in the public demand and reduction in the external demand. Attention is given on path of the business condition recovery and future trends in energy demand under the situation of risen consumption tax and deregulated oil business. 42 figs., 73 tabs.

  2. The role of nuclear energy system for Korean long-term energy supply strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chae, K.N.; Lee, D.G.; Lim, C.Y.; Lee, B.W.

    1995-01-01

    The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE-III is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Emphasis is placed on the potential contribution of nuclear energy in case of environmental constraints and energy resource limitation. The time horizon is 1993-2040. A program to forecast useful energy demand is developed, and optimization is performed from the overall energy system to the nuclear energy system. Reactor and fuel cycle strategy and the expanded utilization options for nuclear energy system are suggested. FBRs, HTGRs and thorium fuel cycle would play key roles in the long run. The most important factors for nuclear energy in Korean energy supply strategy would be the availability of fossil fuels, CO 2 reduction regulation, and the supply capability of nuclear energy. (author)

  3. The uranium industry: long-term planning for short-term competition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vottero, X.; Georges Capus, G.

    2001-01-01

    Long term planning for short term competition Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. Firstly, the risk of investing in new mining projects in western countries is growing because, on the one hand, of very erratic market conditions and, on the other hand, of increasingly lengthy, complex and unpredictable regulatory conditions. Secondly, the supply of other sources of uranium (uranium derived from nuclear weapons, uranium produced in CIS countries, ...) involve other risks, mainly related to politics and commercial restrictions. Consequently, competitive uranium supply requires not only technical competence but also financial strength and good marketing capabilities in order to anticipate long-term market trends, in terms of both demand and supply. It also requires taking into account new parameters such as politics, environment, regulations, etc. Today, a supplier dedicated to the sustainable production of nuclear electricity must manage a broad range of long-term risks inherent to the procurement of uranium. Taking into account all these parameters in a context of short-term, fast-changing market is a great challenge for the future generation. World Uranium Civilian Supply and Demand. (authors)

  4. Long-term equilibrium effects of constraints in energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brookes, L.G.

    1984-01-01

    The subject is covered in sections, entitled: introduction; the economic role of energy; the economics of energy price; a first attempt to model long term effects (energy consumption and economic activity); what is a price hike (energy supply and demand functions before and after price hike); modelling energy price hikes; implications and lessons for nuclear energy; the present reality. (U.K.)

  5. Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Coq, Chloe; Paltseva, Elena

    2009-01-01

    The security of energy supply is one of the main objectives of EU energy policy. In this paper, we introduce an index designed to evaluate the short-term risks associated with the external supply of energy to the EU Member States. It combines measures of energy import diversification, political...

  6. Panorama 2013 - Short term trends in the gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecarpentier, Armelle

    2012-10-01

    The outlook for gas industry development in the short term is clouded by uncertainties (impact of the economic slowdown, competition between energies, price fluctuations, etc.). However, as in 2012, many favorable factors in terms of natural gas supply and demand point to sustained and sustainable growth of this energy. (author)

  7. Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, first quarter 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-01-01

    The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1998 through the fourth quarter of 1999. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the first quarter 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 24 figs., 19 tabs.

  8. An analysis of the performance benefits of short-term energy storage in wind-diesel hybrid power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirazi, M.; Drouilhet, S.

    1996-01-01

    A variety of prototype high penetration wind-diesel hybrid power systems have been implemented with different amounts of energy storage. They range from systems with no energy storage to those with many hours worth of energy storage. There has been little consensus among wind-diesel system developers as to the appropriate role and amount of energy storage in such systems. Some researchers advocate providing only enough storage capacity to supply power during the time it takes the diesel genset to start. Others install large battery banks to allow the diesel(s) to operate at full load and/or to time-shift the availability of wind-generated electricity to match the demand. Prior studies indicate that for high penetration wind-diesel systems, short-term energy storage provides the largest operational and economic benefit. This study uses data collected in Deering, Alaska, a small diesel-powered village, and the hybrid systems modeling software Hybrid2 to determine the optimum amount of short-term storage for a particular high penetration wind-diesel system. These findings were then generalized by determining how wind penetration, turbulence intensity, and load variability affect the value of short term energy storage as measured in terms of fuel savings, total diesel run time, and the number of diesel starts

  9. Real-time energy resources scheduling considering short-term and very short-term wind forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Marco; Sousa, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Vale, Zita [Polytechnic of Porto (Portugal). GECAD - Knowledge Engineering and Decision Support Research Center

    2012-07-01

    This paper proposes an energy resources management methodology based on three distinct time horizons: day-ahead scheduling, hour-ahead scheduling, and real-time scheduling. In each scheduling process the update of generation and consumption operation and of the storage and electric vehicles storage status are used. Besides the new operation conditions, the most accurate forecast values of wind generation and of consumption using results of short-term and very short-term methods are used. A case study considering a distribution network with intensive use of distributed generation and electric vehicles is presented. (orig.)

  10. Security of supply in the liberalized energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boffa, Federico

    2007-01-01

    The incentive schemes in the liberalized energy markets do not ensure short-term security of supply. The paper analyzes the regulatory measures suitable to tackle the issue, and evaluates their effects on market power [it

  11. An interim report on the outlook of long-term energy supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    An interim report was presented by the supply/demand committee in Over-all Energy Council concerning the energy demand and supply outlook for fiscal 1990 as compared with fiscal 1980. The background for deciding the outlook of energy supply and demand and basic ideas for energy policy, and the outlook for energy supply and demand are outlined. The outlook was prepared, assuming yearly economic growth of about 5 % in 1980s and the utmost efforts by people in energy situation. The energy situation both domestic and abroad is largely changing, including energy saving efforts and petroleum price. The aggregate energy demand for fiscal 1990 was put at about 590 million kl in terms of crude oil. Then, concerning nuclear power generation, the power supply by nuclear energy in fiscal 1990 was estimated at 46 million kw accounting for 11.3 % of the total power supply. (Mori, K.)

  12. PENGARUH KEDALAMAN AIR TERHADAP SHORT TERM MEMORY DAN KONSUMSI ENERGI PADA PENYELAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rini Dharmastiti

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian ini akan melihat pengaruh kedalaman air terhadap short term memory dan konsumsi energi penyelam. Penelitian ini mengambil sampel 10 mahasiswa pria dan 5 wanita. Pengukuran performansi short term memory dilakukan dengan cara setiap obyek diperlihatkan deretan 7 angka acak yang diberikan selama 5 detik dan setelah 15 detik kemudian dilakukan pemanggilan kembali informasi yang baru saja diberikan. Setiap obyek diuji sebangak 30 kali untuk setiap kedalaman (1 m; 2,5 m; dan 4 m. Pengukuran konsumsi energi dilakukan dengan menghitung denyut jantung menggunakan metode palpasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa semakin meningkat kedalaman air, maka performasi short term memory penyelam tersebut semakin menurun.  Penurunan ini berlaku untuk pria dan wanita. Penambahan kedalaman ini juga meningkatkan konsumsi energi baik pada pria maupun wanita. Perbedaan jenis kelamin mempengaruhi performansi short term memory secara signifikan. Pria memiliki performansi rata-rata short term memory sebesar 91,67% pada kedalaman 1 m, 90,67% pada kedalaman 2,5 m, dan 86,33% pada kedalaman 4 m. Sedangkan wanita memiliki performansi rata-rata sebesar 86% pada kedalaman 1 m, 84% pada kedalaman 2,5 m, dan 80,67% pada kedalaman 4 m. Rata-rata konsumsi energi pria adalah 3,19 kkal, 3,34 kkal, dan 3,65 kkal pada kedalaman 1 m; 2,5 m; dan 4 m berturut-turut. Sedangkan rata-rata konsumsi energi wanita adalah 3,81 kkal, 4,07 kkal, dan 4,54 kkal pada kedalaman yang sama dengan pria.     Kata kunci : tekanan, kedalaman air, performansi short term memory, konsumsi energi.       This research is to observe water depth effects on short term memory and energy expenditure of diver. This research objects are 10 male and 5 female students. Short term memory performance measurement held by every object has been shown 7 random numerics (as information for 5 seconds and after 15 seconds later they write down the information on a paper. Every object got 30 tests for every

  13. Securing of supply in short and longer term of wood and straw

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, Gert

    2003-01-01

    In Denmark - as well as in the rest of Europe - the importance of biomass as energy source has developed during the last two decades. In the Nordic countries we have seen a rise in utilisation of wood, straw and biogas. Concurrently with this development the trade of biomass has grown and a market has been build up while prices for biofuels has declined by up to 40% in real term prices. The trade of biofuels is expected to increase in the future in order to meet the overall goal and fulfil the international agreements of climate change and reduction of CO 2 . Basically the object of securing supply of biomass for energy production is the same as for all types of fuel or other commodities: to make supply and demand meet at prices the market are able and willing to pay. Price and security of supply are of vital importance for users of biomass - such as Energi E2. Based on these criteria biomass would never have been a fuel for electricity production. The market and supply of biomass is small compared to fossil fuels and the price is 2-3 times the price of coal calculated on an energy basis. But legislation, financial support and tax on fossil fuels have made biomass a competitive fuel for production of electricity and heat. (au)

  14. The role and position of nuclear energy in the long-term energy supply of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bao Yunqiao

    1992-03-01

    The history for development of world nuclear energy and policies in various countries are retrospected, and the development of world nuclear energy is reviewed. On the basis of analysis for the economy of nuclear power in abroad, it is verified that the cost of nuclear power is cheaper than that of coal-fired power. In the future, the nuclear power is still competitive in economy. The prospect for long-term energy supply in China is predicted on the present situation of energy industry. It is estimated that the gap between energy demands and supply will become larger and larger. The solution is to develop nuclear energy in south-east area. The long-term demands of electricity and electrical resources are estimated in China, and if nuclear energy is utilized, it will optimize the constitution of electricity. The economy of nuclear power is also evaluated. It is expected that the nuclear power will be cheaper than that of coal-fired power in China after equipment are made domestically and serially. From the analysis of the conditions of communication, transportation and pollution, the development of nuclear energy will reduce the tension of transportation and improve the environmental quality. Finally, the prospect of developing nuclear heating and the supply level of uranium resources in China are analyzed

  15. Modelling supply and demand of bioenergy from short rotation coppice and Miscanthus in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauen, A W; Dunnett, A J; Richter, G M; Dailey, A G; Aylott, M; Casella, E; Taylor, G

    2010-11-01

    Biomass from lignocellulosic energy crops can contribute to primary energy supply in the short term in heat and electricity applications and in the longer term in transport fuel applications. This paper estimates the optimal feedstock allocation of herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic energy crops for England and Wales based on empirical productivity models. Yield maps for Miscanthus, willow and poplar, constrained by climatic, soil and land use factors, are used to estimate the potential resource. An energy crop supply-cost curve is estimated based on the resource distribution and associated production costs. The spatial resource model is then used to inform the supply of biomass to geographically distributed demand centres, with co-firing plants used as an illustration. Finally, the potential contribution of energy crops to UK primary energy and renewable energy targets is discussed. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Short-term Canadian natural gas deliverability 2008-2010 : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-10-01

    This document examined the factors that affect gas supply in the short term and presented an outlook for deliverability through 2010. Its primary purpose was to advance public understanding of the short-term gas supply situation in Canada. For the past several years, Canadian natural gas has provided about 25 per cent of combined Canadian and U.S. production. Canadian gas deliverability remained within a narrow range from 2000 to mid-2007 at around 483 million cubic metres and has since begun to decline. About 98 per cent of the Canadian volume comes from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), with most of the rest coming from Atlantic Canada. Although drilling and development activity in the WCSB has depended on the price of natural gas relative to costs, that price was influenced by uncertainties such as weather-driven market demand, changes in natural gas supply, cost, attractiveness of other basins, availability of imported liquefied natural gas and possible supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. Shale gas and tight gas prospects in the Horn River and Montney plays of northeast British Columbia have attracted considerable interest from Canada's upstream industry. Early stages of shale gas development are also underway in Quebec and the Maritimes. However, the viability of large scale commercial development of shale gas in Canada has yet to be proven. In order to reflect the short-term uncertainty of the North American natural gas market, this report project deliverability under 3 cases that reflect different levels of drilling investment, namely reference case, high case and low case scenarios. 4 tabs., 12 figs

  17. Short-term Canadian natural gas deliverability 2008-2010 : an energy market assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-10-15

    This document examined the factors that affect gas supply in the short term and presented an outlook for deliverability through 2010. Its primary purpose was to advance public understanding of the short-term gas supply situation in Canada. For the past several years, Canadian natural gas has provided about 25 per cent of combined Canadian and U.S. production. Canadian gas deliverability remained within a narrow range from 2000 to mid-2007 at around 483 million cubic metres and has since begun to decline. About 98 per cent of the Canadian volume comes from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), with most of the rest coming from Atlantic Canada. Although drilling and development activity in the WCSB has depended on the price of natural gas relative to costs, that price was influenced by uncertainties such as weather-driven market demand, changes in natural gas supply, cost, attractiveness of other basins, availability of imported liquefied natural gas and possible supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. Shale gas and tight gas prospects in the Horn River and Montney plays of northeast British Columbia have attracted considerable interest from Canada's upstream industry. Early stages of shale gas development are also underway in Quebec and the Maritimes. However, the viability of large scale commercial development of shale gas in Canada has yet to be proven. In order to reflect the short-term uncertainty of the North American natural gas market, this report project deliverability under 3 cases that reflect different levels of drilling investment, namely reference case, high case and low case scenarios. 4 tabs., 12 figs.

  18. A review of 'long-term energy supply and demand outlook'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoshino, Yuko; Hamagata, Sumio; Nagata, Yutaka

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we reviewed the 'Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook' based on our original Japan's Economy and Energy Outlook toward 2030. 'The Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook' was based on the following three basic policies: (1) Energy self-sufficiency rate in 2030 should be around 25 percent. (2) Electricity Costs in 2030 should be lower than the current level in 2013. (3) Emissions target of GHGs in 2030 should not be lower than that of EU and the US. Moreover, there were many assumptions or constraints, such as assumed economic growth rate consistent to the government's macro-economic policy and the share of renewable energy more than 20 percent. In order to satisfy the above mentioned conditions, an extraordinary energy saving should be implemented in the scenario. The assumed intensity of energy saving is as much as that after the two oil crises. We estimated the cost of that magnitude of energy saving based on our model simulation, which revealed that in order to achieve the energy saving target, the electricity price should be 80% higher than the business as usual case. In addition, we reviewed the long-term energy supply and demand scenarios of major developed countries such as the UK, the US, Italy, Germany and Australia. We found that most of the scenarios depend on a large scale of energy saving in order to achieve the GHG emissions reductions targets. The reality of those energy saving targets should be carefully re-examined under the low oil price environment. (author)

  19. Short-term outlook for natural gas and natural gas liquids to 2006 : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-10-01

    In recent years, natural gas markets in North America have seen a close balance between supply and demand, resulting in high and volatile natural gas prices. The National Energy Board monitors the supply of all energy commodities in Canada along with the demand for Canadian energy commodities in domestic and export markets. This is the NEB's first energy market assessment report that presents a combined short-term analysis and outlook of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs), such as ethane, propane and butane. It provides comprehensive information on the complexity of natural gas and NGL industries and highlights recent developments and topical issues. As a major producer of natural gas, western Canada has a correspondingly large natural gas processing capability that was developed specifically to extract NGLs. A world-scale petrochemical industry was developed in Alberta to convert NGLs into even higher valued products such as ethylene. Since NGLs in Canada are sourced mostly from natural gas, changes to the supply and demand for natural gas would impact NGL supply. This report addressed the issue of commodity prices with reference to crude oil, natural gas and NGL prices. Natural gas supply in terms of North American production and natural gas from coal (NGC) was also reviewed along with natural gas demand for residential and commercial heating, industrial use, power generation, and enhanced recovery for oil sand operations. There are about 692 gas plants in Canada that process raw natural gas into marketable gas and NGLs. Most are small field plants that process raw natural gas production to remove impurities such as sulphur, water and other contaminants. This report also discussed this infrastructure, with reference to field plants, straddle plants, pipelines, distribution and storage, including underground NGL storage. 3 tabs., 27 figs., 5 appendices

  20. Effect of nutrient supply on photosynthesis and pigmentation to short-term stress (UV radiation) in Gracilaria conferta (Rhodophyta)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueroa, F.L.; Israel, A.; Neori, A.; Martinez, B.; Malta, E.J.; Put, A.; Inken, S.; Marquardt, R.; Abdala, R.; Korbee, N.

    2010-01-01

    The effects of increased photosynthetic active radiation (PAR), UV radiation (UVR), and nutrient supply on photosynthetic activity, pigment content, C:N ratio and biomass yield were studied in tank cultivated Gracilaria conferta (Rhodophyta). Electron transport rate (ETR) and biliprotein content were higher under high nutrient supply (HNS), obtained from fishpond effluents, compared to low nutrient supply (LNS), in contrast to mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs) dynamic. The high MAA content in LNS-algae could be explained by higher UVR penetration in the thallus and by the competition for the use of nutrients with other processes. Effective quantum yield decreased after short-term exposure to high irradiance whereas full recovery in shade was produced only under slightly heat shock. UVA radiation provoked an additional decrease in photosynthesis under high water temperature. UVB radiation reversed UVA's negative effect mainly with HNS. Results support that nutrient-sufficiency help G. conferta to resist environmental changes as short-term temperature increase.

  1. Short Term Cyber Attacks with Long Term Effects and Degradation of Supply Chain Capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference, 271–275, St. Augustine: Florida. Goetschalckx, Marc. 2011. Supply Chain Engineering. New York: Springer...term risks in a network supply chain to establish the existence of black swan events. 14. SUBJECT TERMS cybersecurity , supply chain risk...Mission, and Information System View (NIST SP 800–39) .....50 6. Cybersecurity Instruction for the DOD (DODI 8500.01) .........51 7. Risk Management

  2. Closing the gap between short- and long-term scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, F. L.; Rogner, H.-H.

    2005-01-01

    Many scenarios published in recent years explore the driving forces and assess plausible ranges of global energy use and the resources they draw on. Some scenarios (e.g., OECD IEA, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development International Energy Agency, 2004) focus on the next decade or two and project the evolution of world energy demand, supply as well as the resources, technologies, and prices to match them. Other scenarios (e.g., the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2000) explore the long term with a view to resource availability and depletion, technological transformations, and environmental concerns, predominantly climate change. A persistent gap (see Figure 1) can be observed in the projections for nuclear energy: near-term scenarios typically project a flat or slightly declining contribution of nuclear energy to the world energy supply whereas medium- and long-term scenarios anticipate significant increases. The magnitude of the gap between the OECD IEA (2002) projections and the median of the 40 IPCC SRES scenarios for the year 2020 amounts to almost 300 GWe installed capacity. Reasons for the gap originate in the differences between the analytical frameworks (including projection techniques) adopted by the short- and long-term studies. Another, closely related reason is the difference in the underlying assumptions, particularly their relations to recent trends and the current situation. In addition, near-term projections are heavily influenced by the social context (perceived unpopularity or outright rejection of nuclear power after Chernobyl), political factors (government pronouncements and policies at the national level, diplomacy and balancing of national positions at international organizations), economic aspects (energy market deregulation and liberalization unveiling excess capacities; financial risks), technology matters (the role of learning, definition of

  3. Short-term trends in the gas industry - Panorama 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    In a context of high investment costs and rising energy prices, and recurring unseasonably warm temperatures in recent years, the growth of natural gas demand is slowing. On the supply side, and on the demand side too, new trends are emerging, with potentially powerful impact on the short-and long-term development of the industry

  4. Analysis of recurrent neural networks for short-term energy load forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Persio, Luca; Honchar, Oleksandr

    2017-11-01

    Short-term forecasts have recently gained an increasing attention because of the rise of competitive electricity markets. In fact, short-terms forecast of possible future loads turn out to be fundamental to build efficient energy management strategies as well as to avoid energy wastage. Such type of challenges are difficult to tackle both from a theoretical and applied point of view. Latter tasks require sophisticated methods to manage multidimensional time series related to stochastic phenomena which are often highly interconnected. In the present work we first review novel approaches to energy load forecasting based on recurrent neural network, focusing our attention on long/short term memory architectures (LSTMs). Such type of artificial neural networks have been widely applied to problems dealing with sequential data such it happens, e.g., in socio-economics settings, for text recognition purposes, concerning video signals, etc., always showing their effectiveness to model complex temporal data. Moreover, we consider different novel variations of basic LSTMs, such as sequence-to-sequence approach and bidirectional LSTMs, aiming at providing effective models for energy load data. Last but not least, we test all the described algorithms on real energy load data showing not only that deep recurrent networks can be successfully applied to energy load forecasting, but also that this approach can be extended to other problems based on time series prediction.

  5. Supply-cost curves for geographically distributed renewable-energy resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Izquierdo, Salvador; Dopazo, Cesar; Fueyo, Norberto

    2010-01-01

    The supply-cost curves of renewable-energy sources are an essential tool to synthesize and analyze large-scale energy-policy scenarios, both in the short and long terms. Here, we suggest and test a parametrization of such curves that allows their representation for modeling purposes with a minimal set of information. In essence, an economic potential is defined based on the mode of the marginal supply-cost curves; and, using this definition, a normalized log-normal distribution function is used to model these curves. The feasibility of this proposal is assessed with data from a GIS-based analysis of solar, wind and biomass technologies in Spain. The best agreement is achieved for solar energy.

  6. Short-term uranium price formation: a methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsieh, L.Y.; de Graffenried, C.L.

    1987-01-01

    One of the major problems in analyzing the short-term uranium market is the lack of a well-defined spot market price. The two primary sources of price data covering the US uranium market are the series published by the US Dept. of Energy (DOE) and by the Nuclear Exchange Corporation (NUEXCO), a private brokerage firm. Because of the differences in both definition and coverage, these two series are not directly comparable. In this study, an econometric model was developed for analyzing the interrelationship between short-term uranium price (NUEXCO exchange value), supply, demand, and future price expectations formed by market participants. The validity of this model has been demonstrated by the fact that all simulation statistics derived are highly significant. Three forecasting scenarios were developed in this study

  7. Proposal on concept of security of energy supply with nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ujita, Hiroshi; Matsui, Kazuaki; Yamada, Eiji

    2009-01-01

    Security of energy supply (SoS) was a major concern for OECD governments in the early 1970s. Since then, successive oil crises, volatility of hydrocarbon prices, as well as terrorist risks and natural disasters, have brought the issue back to the centre stage of policy agendas. SoS concept has been proposed which is defined by time frame and space frame as well. Wide meaning SoS consists of narrow meaning SoS of short-term energy crisis, which is the traditional concept, and long-term global energy problem, which has become important recently. Three models have been proposed here for evaluating SoS. A method to estimate energy security level in a quantitative manner by comparing with various measures has been also proposed, in which nuclear energy contribution onto SoS can be further measured. (author)

  8. Long vs. short-term energy storage:sensitivity analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenung, Susan M. (Longitude 122 West, Inc., Menlo Park, CA); Hassenzahl, William V. (,Advanced Energy Analysis, Piedmont, CA)

    2007-07-01

    This report extends earlier work to characterize long-duration and short-duration energy storage technologies, primarily on the basis of life-cycle cost, and to investigate sensitivities to various input assumptions. Another technology--asymmetric lead-carbon capacitors--has also been added. Energy storage technologies are examined for three application categories--bulk energy storage, distributed generation, and power quality--with significant variations in discharge time and storage capacity. Sensitivity analyses include cost of electricity and natural gas, and system life, which impacts replacement costs and capital carrying charges. Results are presented in terms of annual cost, $/kW-yr. A major variable affecting system cost is hours of storage available for discharge.

  9. A simulation approach for analysis of short-term security of natural gas supply in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villada, Juan; Olaya, Yris

    2013-01-01

    Achieving security of gas supply implies diversifying gas sources, while having enough supply, transportation, and storage capacity to meet demand peaks and supply interruptions. Devising a strategy for securing gas supply is not straightforward because gas supply depends on complex interactions of production, demand and infrastructure, and it is exposed to economic, regulatory, political, environmental and technical risks. To address this complexity, we propose a simulation approach that replicates the structure of the gas supply chain, including transportation constraints and demand fluctuations. We build and calibrate a computer model for the Colombian gas sector, and run the model to assess the impact of expanding transportation capacity and increasing market flexibility on the security of supply. Our analysis focuses on the operation and planned and proposed expansions of the transportation infrastructure because adequate regulation and development of this infrastructure can contribute to increase the security of supply in the gas sector. We find that proposed import facilities, specifically LNG import terminals at Buenaventura, increase system's security under the current market structure. - Highlights: ► We build a simulation model for analyzing natural gas trade in Colombia. ► The model captures the structure of the gas network and on market rules. ► We simulate investment decisions to increase short-term security of supply. ► Securing supply would need LNG imports and expansion of pipeline capacity.

  10. Development of oil supply and demand planning model for mid- and long-term

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung Hyun [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1997-10-01

    Despite the liberalization of oil market, a systematic model is required for reasonable supply and demand of oil, which still has an important influence on industry and state economy. It is required a demand model deriving prospects of each sector and product and a supply model examining the optimum rate of operation, production mix of products, stock, export and import, and the size of equipment investment to meet given demand. As the first phase for the development of supply and demand model, the existing oil and energy models in domestic and overseas were reviewed and recommendations for establishing a Korean oil supply and demand model were derived in this study. Based on these, a principle for establishing a model and a rough framework were set up. In advance of mid- and long-term prospects, a short-term prospect model was established and the short-term prospects for the first quarter of 1999 and for the year 1999 were presented on trial. Due to the size and characters of a supply model, a plan for an ideal model was first explained and then a plan for creating a model step by step was presented as a realistic scheme. (author). 16 refs., 9 figs., 19 tabs.

  11. Supply side energy management for sustainable energy ( development in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uqaili, M.A.; Harijan, K.; Memon, M.

    2005-01-01

    Pakistan is an energy deficient country. Indigenous reserves of oil and gas are limited and the country heavily depends on imported energy. The indigenous coal is of poor quality. Environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from energy use are becoming significant environmental issues in the country. Sustainability is regarded as a major consideration for both urban and rural development in Pakistan. People in the country have been exploiting the natural resources with no consideration to the effects-both short term (environmental) and long term (resource crunch). The urban areas of the country depend to a large extent on commercial energy sources. The rural areas use non-commercial sources like firewood, agricultural wastes and animal dung. Even this is decreasing over the years, with the villagers wanting to adopt the ready to use sophisticated technology. The debate now is to identify a suitable via media. The option that fills this gap aptly is the renewable energy source. This paper analyses the supply side management of energy resources in relation to sustainable energy development. The present study shows that for achieving long-term environmental sustainable development, renewable energy is the major option that could meet the growing energy needs in Pakistan. (author)

  12. Formulating an optimal long-term energy supply strategy for Syria using MESSAGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hainoun, A.; Seif Aldin, M.; Almoustafa, S.

    2010-01-01

    An optimal long-term energy supply strategy has been formulated based on minimizing the total system costs for the entire study period 2003-2030. The national energy chain was modelled covering all energy levels and conversion technologies. The results indicate that the primary energy will grow at annual average rate of 4.8% arriving 68 Mtoe in 2030. The total installed electric capacity will be optimally expanded from 6885 to 19500 MW in 2030. Furthermore, to ensure supply security the future national energy system will rely mainly upon oil and natural gas (NG) with limited contribution of renewables and nuclear to the end of study period. The share of NG will increase gradually up to 2020 and then retreat. Owing to the continuous decrease of oil production, oil export is expected to vanish in 2012 and the country will import about 63% of its primary energy demand in 2030. Thus, the expected long-term development of national energy sector indicates a hard challenge for the future national economy. The employing of sensitivity analysis clarifies the importance of wind turbines operation time and discount rate. The analysis proves that nuclear option is insensitive to overnight cost increase up to 85% of the reference case value.

  13. Supply assurance by versatile energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaek, W.

    1982-01-01

    The scope of future possibilities of covering the energy requirements of the Federal Republic of Germany has been explained in four sessions handling the topics: structure and covering of the primary energy requirements, contributions of fossil and other energy sources, hydrocarbons and nuclear energy as well as perspectives and political reaction. All energy carriers are required in order to guarantee supply safety, but the industrial nations should make greater use of their know-how and capitals in order to meet short supply of raw material with flexibility. (orig.) [de

  14. Pro short-term procurement - Broker/trader

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoellen, E.E.

    1990-01-01

    The author presents his opinion on the issue of short-term versus long-term procurement of uranium and enrichment and the impact on reliability of supply. The progression of the market has been one of increasing commoditization. Utility buyers have moved towards purchasing uranium on the spot market and linking long-term contracts to spot-market pricing. There is some logic to the argument that utilities and the industry in general would be best served by this approach. Inventories would be worked off much more quickly, and unnecessary supply would be shut off until prices recovered to profitable levels. The result would be a healthier market with no detriment to the reliability of supply

  15. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

    2011-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  16. Short term scheduling of multiple grid-parallel PEM fuel cells for microgrid applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Sharkh, M.Y.; Rahman, A.; Alam, M.S. [Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL 36688 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    This paper presents a short term scheduling scheme for multiple grid-parallel PEM fuel cell power plants (FCPPs) connected to supply electrical and thermal energy to a microgrid community. As in the case of regular power plants, short term scheduling of FCPP is also a cost-based optimization problem that includes the cost of operation, thermal power recovery, and the power trade with the local utility grid. Due to the ability of the microgrid community to trade power with the local grid, the power balance constraint is not applicable, other constraints like the real power operating limits of the FCPP, and minimum up and down time are therefore used. To solve the short term scheduling problem of the FCPPs, a hybrid technique based on evolutionary programming (EP) and hill climbing technique (HC) is used. The EP is used to estimate the optimal schedule and the output power from each FCPP. The HC technique is used to monitor the feasibility of the solution during the search process. The short term scheduling problem is used to estimate the schedule and the electrical and thermal power output of five FCPPs supplying a maximum power of 300 kW. (author)

  17. Perspective of long term demand and supply of energy and general inspection of energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    Since the oil crisis, Japanese energy policy was promoted to get rid of the excess dependence on petroleum and to attain energy security, but energy situation largely changed during the past ten years, and it has become necessary to make general inspection on the long term demand and supply of energy and the energy policy. After the second oil crisis, the worldwide demand of petroleum decreased drastically due to the rapid price rise, and the base price of crude oil was lowered for the first time. It is necessary to positively endeavor to reduce energy cost with new idea. The points of the general inspection are the correspondence of the energy policy to the large structural change of energy, the most desirable system for attaining the optimum structure of energy demand and supply and the utilization of market mechanism as far as possible. This report is the results of discussion held eight times since April, 1983. The change of energy situation in Japan and abroad and the perspective, the new problems in energy countermeasures and the trend of response, the preferential and effective promotion of general energy countermeasures and so on are reported. This report shows the fundamental direction of energy countermeasures hereafter, and the concrete and special examination must be made on many remaining problems. (Kako, I.)

  18. Long term trends in world energy demand and supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frisch, J.

    1992-01-01

    In this address, the author discusses projected changes in fuel use, shifts in energy consumption and projected increases in carbon dioxide emissions. He expects these energy issues to cause geopolitical uncertainties that will complicate attempts to reduce greenhouse gases. There is great concern for the poverty-stricken areas of Asia and Africa. Thirty-five to forty-five percent of their energy needs will be supplied by scarce fuelwood and poor animal and vegetal residues by the year 2020. International cooperation will be needed to alleviate the tensions caused by these inequities of energy supplies

  19. Short-term LNG-markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eldegard, Tom; Lund, Arne-Christian; Miltersen, Kristian; Rud, Linda

    2005-01-01

    The global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry has experienced substantial growth in the past decades. In the traditional trade patterns of LNG the product has typically been handled within a dedicated chain of plants and vessels fully committed by long term contracts or common ownership, providing risk sharing of large investments in a non-liquid market. Increasing gas prices and substantial cost reductions in all parts of the LNG chain have made LNG projects viable even if only part of the capacity is secured by long-term contracts, opening for more flexible trade of the remainder. Increasing gas demand, especially in power generation, combined with cost reductions in the cost of LNG terminals, open new markets for LNG. For the LNG supplier, the flexibility of shifting volumes between regions represents an additional value. International trade in LNG has been increasing, now accounting for more than one fifth of the world's cross-border gas trade. Despite traditional vertical chain bonds, increased flexibility has contributed in fact to an increasing LNG spot trade, representing 8% of global trade in 2002. The focus of this paper is on the development of global short-term LNG markets, and their role with respect to efficiency and security of supply in European gas markets. Arbitrage opportunities arising from price differences between regional markets (such as North America versus Europe) are important impetuses for flexible short-term trade. However, the short-term LNG trade may suffer from problems related to market access, e.g. limited access to terminals and regulatory issues, as well as rigidities connected to vertical binding within the LNG chain. Important issues related to the role of short-term LNG-trade in the European gas market are: Competition, flexibility in meeting peak demand, security of supply and consequences of differences in pricing policies (oil-linked prices in Europe and spot market prices in North America). (Author)

  20. 2009 reference case scenario : Canadian energy demand and supply to 2020 : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The National Energy Board regulates the construction and operation of interprovincial and international oil and gas pipelines and power lines as well as the tolls and tariffs for the pipelines under its jurisdictions. The import and export of natural gas is also regulated by the NEB. The NEB examined the possible energy futures that might unfold for Canadians up to the year 2020. The factors that affect the supply of crude oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, electricity and coal in the short term were examined to determine the outlook for deliverability through 2020. The growing demand for energy was reviewed along with the adequacy of future energy supplies, and related issues of emerging technologies, energy infrastructure and energy exports. This assessment provided separate production outlooks for hydrocarbons, electricity and coal and outlined the key uncertainties to the supply outlook. The likely impact of recent economic, energy and policy trends on energy demand and supply were considered. It was concluded that energy markets in Canada will continue to function well. Energy prices will provide appropriate market signals for the development of energy resources to meet Canadian and export demand. A significant portion of Canadian demand for energy will be met by fossil fuels. However, the demand to move towards greener energy fuels should result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions. 1 tab., 27 figs.

  1. Risk and risk policy in the field of energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nydegger, A.

    1980-01-01

    The economic and energy-political questions relating to securing the supply of energy to Switzerland are considered. Several points are made: 1. The fear of an imminent global shortage of oil is exaggerated. For various reasons the demand for oil will fall significantly in the next ten years, long before oil and other conventional energy resources begin to fail. 2. The short-term supply of oil should not be put at risk by excessive parsimony in using supplies from the North Sea and North America with the object of conserving them. 3. Switzerland should take much more vigorous steps to deal with a sudden breakdown of oil supplies by substituting electricity for direct oil burning, and developing electricity generation and transmission, cultivating coal imports, causing local authorities to develop plans for dealing with a sudden failure of energy supplies and industry (e.g. the food refrigeration industry) to plan for energy rationing. 4. Thought should be given to legal and political problems that would be caused by acute energy shortage, and due consideration given to this possibility in judging the need for additional nuclear generation. 5. The eminence of Switzerland in banking and engineering should be fully used to encourage stability and rationality in the pricing of oil and adequate recycling of oil funds to support development in the Third World. (C.J.O.G.)

  2. A policy study on energy supply and demand of several countries (China, Indonesia, Mexico)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Byung Ryeal [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-03-01

    Korea is depending 97% of primary energy consumption on imports. To have a stable supply of energy required for a continuous growth, it is recommended to utilize international energy market actively for short-term while it is required to reinforce resources diplomacy with other countries with full of resources for mid- and long-term. This study reviewed energy supply and demand and major policies of China, Indonesia and Mexico, which give direct or indirect influence on energy supply and demand of Korea. With the geographical adjacency, Korea imports coal from China and exports petroleum products to China. Furthermore, it is very likely to have a trade related to nuclear power plant and natural gas. Indonesia exports coal, crude oil, and LNG to Korea. Especially LNG is occupied 60% of total amount of imports. It is expected to get help from Mexico because there are many similar aspects between Mexico and Korea such as GNP or a conservative idea on energy industry. (author). 49 refs., 6 figs., 42 tabs.

  3. Long-term outlook of energy demand and supply in Japan. Estimation of energy demand and supply for 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' of JAEA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatematsu, Kenji; Kawasaki, Hirotsugu; Nemoto, Masahiro; Murakami, Masakazu

    2009-06-01

    In this study, we showed an energy demand and supply scenario toward the year 2100 in Japan, which underlies JAEA's 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' published in October 2008. This energy demand and supply scenario aimed at the coexistence of the reduction of the carbon dioxide emission and the energy security through reduction of the fossil fuel usage, positive electrification and the nuclear energy usage. We reduced the ratio of the fossil fuel in the primary energy supply to about 1/3 and extend the share of renewable and nuclear energy to 70% from current 15%. As a result, the carbon dioxide emission was reduced to current 10%, and it developed that the half was the contribution of the nuclear energy. (author)

  4. Nuclear primary energy carriers. Short version

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeck, W

    1978-04-01

    Basing on our present knowledge the following energy sources for energy supply must be taken into consideration in the long term: regenerative energy sources, fission energy gained by breeder reactors, nuclear fusion. While regenerative energy sources were treated at full length in the study 'Energy Sources for Tomorrow' the present study specifies the other two energy options. The availability and the reliability of nuclear primary energy carrier supply is described in detail and the conversion systems available or still being developed are investigated with regard to their specific consumption of primary energy. Topical questions concerning the proliferation stability of the fuel cycles and techniques are subject to the INFCE program. With reference to the nuclear energy documentation activities of the Federal Government this study is supposed to supply further fundamental material on nuclear primary energy carriers, consumption and readiness for application. Thus it will contribute to the question: 'Is nuclear energy an option which guarantees energy supply in the long term for the Federal Republic of Germany'. (orig.) 891 UA 892 ARA.

  5. The influence of blood supply pattern of hepatic metastases on the short-term effect of TACE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Guowen; Liang Zhaoyu; Yu Xiaoping; Gu Shanzhi; Zhang Tiegang; He Qing; Xiong Zhengping; Huang Manping

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To discuss the influence of blood supply pattern of hepatic metastases on the short-term effect of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE). Methods: A total of 58 cases of liver metastases who had been treated with TACE were selected, the clinical data and short-term effects were retrospectively analyzed. Results: Based on the DSA findings, 58 cases of liver metastases were divided into the hypervascular pattern (n=14), the isovascular pattern (n=12) and the hypovascular pattern group (n=32). After TACE the clinical effective rate (CR + PR) of hypervascular, isovascular and hypo vascular pattern group was 92.9% (13 /14), 83.3% (10/12) and 9.4% (3/32) respectively, with a significant difference existing between hyper vascular and hypo vascular group as well as between iso vascular and hypo vascular group (P 0.05). The survival rate at half and one year after Tace treatment for all cases was 67.2% and 42.3%, respectively. The survival rate at half and one year for hyper vascular, iso vascular and hypo vascular group was 100% and 78.6%, 100% and 58.3%, 40.6% and 7.6%, respectively. A significant difference in the survival rate existed between hypervascular and hypovascular group as well as between isovascular and hypovascular group (P 0.05). Conclusion: TACE shows much better effectiveness for the hypervascular hepatic metastases, and it is very useful for making an appropriate therapeutic plan to distinguish the blood supply pattern of hepatic metastases. (authors)

  6. Short-term trends in the gas industry - Panorama 2008; Tendances a court terme de l'industrie gaziere - Panorama 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    In a context of high investment costs and rising energy prices, and recurring unseasonably warm temperatures in recent years, the growth of natural gas demand is slowing. On the supply side, and on the demand side too, new trends are emerging, with potentially powerful impact on the short-and long-term development of the industry.

  7. Long-term energy supply contracts in European competition policy: Fuzzy not crazy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauteclocque, Adrien de; Glachant, Jean-Michel

    2009-01-01

    Long-term supply contracts often have ambiguous effects on the competitive structure, investment and consumer welfare in the long term. In the new market context, these effects are likely to be worsened and thus even harder to assess. Since liberalization and especially since the release of the Energy Sector Inquiry in early 2007, the portfolio of long-term supply contracts of the former incumbents have become a priority for review by the European Commission and the national competition authorities. It is widely believed that European Competition authorities take a dogmatic view on these contracts and systemically emphasize the risk of foreclosure over their positive effects on investment and operation. This paper depicts the methodology that has emerged in the recent line of cases and argues that this interpretation is largely misguided. It shows that a multiple-step approach is used to reduce regulation costs and balance anti-competitive effects with potential efficiency gains. However, if an economic approach is now clearly implemented, competition policy is constrained by the procedural aspect of the legal process and the remedies imposed remain open for discussion.

  8. Interim report on the long-term outlook of energy demands and supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    The supply/demand committee on Overall Energy Council has long deliberated on the outlook of energy demands and supplies, and finalized its report, assuming a yearly economic growth of about 5% in 1980s and utmost efforts by both the people and the government: the background and basic ideas to decide the outlook, the outlook of energy demands and supplies, and conclusions. The energy demand for fiscal 1990 is put at 590 million kl (crude oil equivalent) and for fiscal 2000 at 770 million kl with energy saving ratios 15.5% and 25%, respectively. The energy supply by nuclear power for fiscal 1990 is then put at 46,000 MW with 11.3% of the total. In the energy supply outlook for fiscal 1990, the aspects of the economy and stability as well as the quantity of respective energy sources are considered, overall to reduce the reliance on petroleum. (Mori, K.)

  9. Energy supply today and tomorrow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janssen, W.

    1980-01-01

    The paper is the synthesis of two lectures on the energy market in the FRG and the problems of the future energy supply. The main point of the explanations is nuclear energy and power supply the basic thoughts of which are explained in detail. A general view at the present situation on the individual energy sections shows that by using regenerative energy sources and energy savings only the increasing energy need cannot be met. Also in the case of coal, when having used it for a long time through the technologies of gasification and liquidation, its quantitative limits will be seen sooner than it would be the case otherwise. For long terms, nuclear energy is the only way to guarantee the mankind a relatively rishless supply of energy in the generation of power and process heat, especially when the fast breeders are used. (UA) [de

  10. Short-term Canadian natural gas deliverability 2005-2007 : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-10-01

    This document examined the factors that influence gas supply in the short-term and presented an outlook for deliverability from 2005 to 2007. Recent trends in the production characteristics of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and the east coast offshore provide a better understanding of the short-term gas supply situation. High natural gas prices have resulted in record levels of drilling in Canada's natural gas exploration and production industry. Drilling levels are expected to remain high as industry will continue to maximize efforts to increase production. However, due to the maturity of the WCSB, the effort will result in only a modest increase in production over the next 2 years. The low decline characteristics of natural gas from coal (NGC) wells will have a stabilizing effect on WCSB deliverability over the long-term. It was noted that approximately 98 per cent of Canadian gas is produced from the WCSB with Alberta accounting for 80 per cent of the output. This assessment provided separate deliverability estimates for conventional gas in the WCSB, NGC, and offshore Nova Scotia. The contribution from offshore Nova Scotia will likely remain in the range of 10 to 11 million cubic metres per day until late 2006, and rise to an average of 13 million cubic metres per day in 2007 with added compression. It was concluded that Canadian deliverability will increase slightly through an increase in drilling activity. It was also noted that the province of Alberta and the petroleum industry are addressing the issue of drilling density, access to resources, noise and other environmental aspects of the expected increase in NGC activity. 3 tabs., 16 figs., 3 appendices

  11. Short Term Energy Storage for Grid Support in Wind Power Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stroe, Daniel Ioan; Stan, Ana-Irina; Diosi, Robert

    2012-01-01

    The penetration of wind power into the power system has been increasing in the recent years. Therefore, a lot of concerns related to the reliable operation of the power system have been addressed. An attractive solution to minimize the limitations faced by the wind power grid integration, and thus...... to increase the power system stability and the energy quality, is to integrate energy storage devices into wind power plants. This paper gives an overview of the state-of-the-art short-term energy storage devices and presents several applications which can be provided by the energy storage device - wind power...

  12. Sustainable electric energy supply by decentralized alternative energy technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zahedi, A., E-mail: Ahmad.Zahedi@jcu.edu.au [James Cook University, Queensland (Australia). School of Engineering and Physical Sciences

    2010-07-01

    The most available and affordable sources of energy in today's economic structure are fossil fuels, namely, oil, gas, and coal. Fossil fuels are non-renewable, have limited reserves, and have serious environmental problems associated with their use. Coal and nuclear energy are used in central and bulky power stations to produce electricity, and then this electricity is delivered to customers via expensive transmission lines and distribution systems. Delivering electric power via transmission and distribution lines to the electricity users is associated with high electric power losses. These power losses are costly burdens on power suppliers and users. One of the advantages of decentralized generation (DG) is that DG is capable of minimizing power losses because electric power is generated at the demand site. The world is facing two major energy-related issues, short term and long term. These issues are (i) not having enough and secure supplies of energy at affordable prices and (ii) environmental damages caused by consuming too much energy in an unsustainable way. A significant amount of the current world energy comes from limited resources, which when used, cannot be replaced. Hence the energy production and consumption do not seem to be sustainable, and also carries the threat of severe and irreversible damages to the environment including climate change.The price of energy is increasing and there are no evidences suggesting that this trend will reverse. To compensate for this price increase we need to develop and use high energy efficient technologies and focusing on energy technologies using renewable sources with less energy conversion chains, such as solar and wind. The world has the potential to expand its capacity of clean, renewable, and sustainable energy to offset a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions from conventional power use. The increasing utilization of alternative sources such as hydro, biomass, geothermal, ocean energy, solar and

  13. RUSTEC: Greening Europe's energy supply by developing Russia's renewable energy potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boute, Anatole; Willems, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    The North-West of Russia is characterized by a large renewable energy resource base in geographic proximity to the EU. At the same time, EU Member States are bound by mandatory renewable energy targets which could prove to be costly to achieve in the current budgetary context and which often face strong local opposition. Directive 2009/28/EC on Renewable Energy makes it possible for Member States to achieve their targets by importing electricity produced from renewable energy sources from non-EU countries. So far, most attention has been on the Mediterranean Solar Plan or Desertec. An EU–Russia Renewable Energy Plan or RUSTEC – being based on onshore wind/biomass/hydro energy and on-land interconnection, rather than solar power and subsea lines – could present a cost-efficient and short-term complement to Desertec. This article examines the political, geopolitical, economic, social and legal challenges and opportunities of exporting “green” energy from Russia to the EU. It argues that EU–Russian cooperation in the renewable energy field would present a win-win situation: Member States could achieve their targets on the basis of Russia's renewable energy potential, while Russia could begin to develop a national renewable energy industry without risking potential price increases for domestic consumers—a concern of great political sensitivity in Russia. - Highlights: ► Russia has a huge renewable energy potential in geographic proximity to the EU. ► This potential could help the EU decarbonize its electricity supply at least cost.► EU–Russia green energy export is a win-win situation but lacks political attention.► RUSTEC could be a short-term and cost-efficient complement to Desertec. ► RUSTEC would diversify EU energy imports/Russian exports and stimulate innovation.

  14. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Yophy, E-mail: yohuanghaka@gmail.com [Deptartment of Public Finance and Tax Administration, National Taipei College of Business, Taipei Taiwan, 10051 (China); Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey [Deptartment of Economics, Chinese Culture University, Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei, 11114, Taiwan (China); Peng, Chieh-Yu [Statistics Department, Taoyuan District Court, No. 1 Fazhi Road, Taoyuan City 33053, Taiwan (China)

    2011-11-15

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research Highlights: > The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. > Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO{sub 2} emission. > The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. > Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. > Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  15. Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Energy Generation for a Photovoltaic System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinh V.T.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a short-term forecast of electric energy output of a photovoltaic (PV system towards Tomsk city, Russia climate variations (module temperature and solar irradiance. The system is located at Institute of Non-destructive Testing, Tomsk Polytechnic University. The obtained results show good agreement between actual data and prediction values.

  16. An adaptive short-term prediction scheme for wind energy storage management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blonbou, Ruddy; Monjoly, Stephanie; Dorville, Jean-Francois

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → We develop a real time algorithm for grid-connected wind energy storage management. → The method aims to guarantee, with ±5% error margin, the power sent to the grid. → Dynamic scheduling of energy storage is based on short-term energy prediction. → Accurate predictions reduce the need in storage capacity. -- Abstract: Efficient forecasting scheme that includes some information on the likelihood of the forecast and based on a better knowledge of the wind variations characteristics along with their influence on power output variation is of key importance for the optimal integration of wind energy in island's power system. In the Guadeloupean archipelago (French West-Indies), with a total wind power capacity of 25 MW; wind energy can represent up to 5% of the instantaneous electricity production. At this level, wind energy contribution can be equivalent to the current network primary control reserve, which causes balancing difficult. The share of wind energy is due to grow even further since the objective is set to reach 118 MW by 2020. It is an absolute evidence for the network operator that due to security concerns of the electrical grid, the share of wind generation should not increase unless solutions are found to solve the prediction problem. The University of French West-Indies and Guyana has developed a short-term wind energy prediction scheme that uses artificial neural networks and adaptive learning procedures based on Bayesian approach and Gaussian approximation. This paper reports the results of the evaluation of the proposed approach; the improvement with respect to the simple persistent prediction model was globally good. A discussion on how such a tool combined with energy storage capacity could help to smooth the wind power variation and improve the wind energy penetration rate into island utility network is also proposed.

  17. Carbon neutral archipelago – 100% renewable energy supply for the Canary Islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gils, Hans Christian; Simon, Sonja

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A pathway to a 100% renewable energy supply for the Canary Islands is presented. • Hourly system operation is analysed, considering flexibility options and sector linkage. • Results show feasibility of a carbon neutral energy supply with local resources. • High resolution power system model highlights importance of grid connections. - Abstract: As many other small islands and archipelagos, the Canary Islands depend to a high degree on energy imports. Despite its small surface, the archipelago has a high potential for renewable energy (RE) technologies. In this paper, we present a scenario pathway to a 100% RE supply in the Canary Islands by 2050. It relies on a back-casting approach linking the bottom-up accounting framework Mesap-PlaNet and the high resolution power system model REMix. Our analysis shows that locally available technology potentials are sufficient for a fully renewable supply of the islands’ power, heat, and land transport energy demands. To follow the pathway for achieving a carbon neutral supply, expansion of RE technology deployment needs to be accelerated in the short-term and efforts towards greater energy efficiency must be increased. According to our results, an extended linkage between energy sectors through electric vehicles as well as electric heating, and the usage of synthetic hydrogen can contribute notably to the integration of intermittent RE power generation. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of power transmission in RE supply systems. Supply costs are found 15% lower in a scenario considering sea cable connections between all islands.

  18. The Energy Supply of Sweden. Short term prognosis 2008-08-15; Energifoersoerjningen i Sverige. Kortsiktsprognos 2008-08-15

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-08-15

    The domestic energy use, which includes the use in industry, transport and housing and services, amounted in 2007 to 396 TWh. Year 2010 we forecast the energy use to amount to 410 TWh. Energy use in residential and services sectors is estimated to be 142.8 TWh in 2008, which is at the level of energy use in 2006, but a slight decrease compared with 2007. The first half of 2008 was much warmer than normal. In the forecast we assume that the rest of 2008 and full years 2009 and 2010 will have normal temperature conditions. Under these conditions the energy use will amount to 149 TWh in 2009 and 149.5 TWh in 2010. Oil use for heating will be reduce continuously over the forecasting period. Throughout the forecast period the industry's energy use is expected to increase barely 1% To 158 TWh, equivalent to 1.4 TWh. Energy use in the transport sector, excluding bunkering for foreign shipping and aviation, is expected to increase by about 6% during the period 2007-2010. In terms of terawatt hours, this means that energy use will increase from about 96 TWh to approximately 102 TWh. These figures are comparable with the previous forecast. Foreign maritime and air transport is expected to increase by 14%, from about 34 TWh to about 39 TWh. The total district heating supply amounted to 54.3 TWh in 2007. For 2010 the forecast district heating supply amounts to 58.9 TWh. Net electricity generation in Sweden amounted to 144.9 TWh in 2007 and preliminary statistics point to an output of 147.9 for the year 2008. Electricity production in the country is projected to continue to increase in both 2009 and 2010, 154.4 TWh for the year 2009 and 156.2 for 2010. The capacity increases markedly at present with many new wind and cogeneration plants and power uprates in nuclear power plants. Hydroelectric power produced 65.6 TWh of electricity in 2007. For 2008, preliminary statistics indicate to 65.5 TWh net production. Between the years 1985-2005, the average production from

  19. Development of a global electricity supply model and investigation of electricity supply by renewable energies with a focus on energy storage requirements for Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troendle, Tobias Wolfgang

    2014-12-12

    Electricity supply at present requires about 38% of the global primary energy demand and it is likely to rise further in the coming decades. Facing major problems, such as limited resources of fuels and an ongoing anthropogenic climate change, a sustainable electricity supply based on renewable energies is absolutely vital. Wind and solar power will play an extensive role in future supplies but require energy storage capacities to meet electricity demand. To investigate the relationship of power plant mix and required energy storage capacity, a computer model based on global weather data has been developed to enable the simulation of electricity supply scenarios by up to ten different power plant types for various regions. The focus of the investigation has been on the energy storage requirements of an electricity supply for Europe by wind and solar power. The minimum required energy storage capacity for a totally weather dependent electricity supply occurs at a ratio of 30% wind and 70% photovoltaic (PV) power plant capacity installed. Thus, the required energy storage capacity rises from a transition of to-day's electricity supply to the afore-mentioned 100% renewable wind and PV scenario exponentially to about 150 TWh (3.8% of the annual electricity demand). The installation of additional excess wind and PV power plant capacity was seen to be an efficient way to reduce the required energy storage. Already 10% excess capacity lead to a reduction by 50% of the required storage capacity. To use different storage technologies in an optimised way in terms of storage capacity and efficiency, the storage tasks can be separated into a daily and a seasonal usage. While the seasonal storage capacity has to be about two orders of magnitude larger than the required capacity of the storage for the daily cycle, the sum of stored energy during one year is almost equal for the long and short time storage. In summary, an electricity supply by wind and PV power was shown to

  20. Development of a global electricity supply model and investigation of electricity supply by renewable energies with a focus on energy storage requirements for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Troendle, Tobias Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    Electricity supply at present requires about 38% of the global primary energy demand and it is likely to rise further in the coming decades. Facing major problems, such as limited resources of fuels and an ongoing anthropogenic climate change, a sustainable electricity supply based on renewable energies is absolutely vital. Wind and solar power will play an extensive role in future supplies but require energy storage capacities to meet electricity demand. To investigate the relationship of power plant mix and required energy storage capacity, a computer model based on global weather data has been developed to enable the simulation of electricity supply scenarios by up to ten different power plant types for various regions. The focus of the investigation has been on the energy storage requirements of an electricity supply for Europe by wind and solar power. The minimum required energy storage capacity for a totally weather dependent electricity supply occurs at a ratio of 30% wind and 70% photovoltaic (PV) power plant capacity installed. Thus, the required energy storage capacity rises from a transition of to-day's electricity supply to the afore-mentioned 100% renewable wind and PV scenario exponentially to about 150 TWh (3.8% of the annual electricity demand). The installation of additional excess wind and PV power plant capacity was seen to be an efficient way to reduce the required energy storage. Already 10% excess capacity lead to a reduction by 50% of the required storage capacity. To use different storage technologies in an optimised way in terms of storage capacity and efficiency, the storage tasks can be separated into a daily and a seasonal usage. While the seasonal storage capacity has to be about two orders of magnitude larger than the required capacity of the storage for the daily cycle, the sum of stored energy during one year is almost equal for the long and short time storage. In summary, an electricity supply by wind and PV power was shown to

  1. The Energy Supply of Sweden. Short term prognosis 2009-07-08; Energifoersoerjningen i Sverige. Kortsiktsprognos 2009-07-08

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-08-15

    The domestic energy use, which includes the use in industry, transport and housing and services, amounted in 2008 to 388 TWh. Year 2011 we forecast the energy use to amount to 384 TWh. The temperature adjusted energy use in residential and services sectors is estimated to be 145.9 TWh in 2009, a reduction of 3 TWh compared to 2008. In the forecast we assume that the rest of 2009 and full years 2010 and 2011 will have normal temperature conditions. Under these conditions the energy use will amount to 146.2 TWh in 2010 and 147.1 TWh in 2011. Energy use in the transport sector, excluding bunkering for foreign shipping and aviation, is expected to increase by about 0.6% during the period 2008-2011. In terms of terawatt hours, this means that energy use will increase from about 95.3 TWh to approximately 95.9 TWh. Foreign maritime and air transport is expected to decrease by 7%, from about 33 TWh to about 31 TWh. The total district heating supply amounted to 55.1 TWh in 2008. For 2011 the forecast district heating supply amounts to 58.6 TWh. Net electricity generation in Sweden amounted to 145.9 TWh in 2008 and preliminary statistics point to an output of 141.0 for the year 2009. Electricity production in the country is projected to increase in both 2010 and 2011, 153.7 TWh for the year 2010 and 156.6 for 2011. Hydroelectric power produced 68.3 TWh of electricity in 2008. For 2009, preliminary statistics indicate to 62.5 TWh net production. Between the years 1985-2007, the average production from hydropower was 67.2 TWh which is what is supposed to be produced years 2010 and 2011. The year 2008 nuclear power produced 61.3 TWh of electricity. Nuclear power is estimated in the forecast to reach a production of 61.5 TWh in 2009. For the years 2010 and 2011 the production is estimated to be 67.0 and 68.4 TWh respectively. Electricity production in district heating cogeneration plants was high in 2008 and continues to increase during the forecast period from 7.7 TWh in 2008

  2. Short-Term Multiple Forecasting of Electric Energy Loads for Sustainable Demand Planning in Smart Grids for Smart Homes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeshina Y. Alani

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Energy consumption in the form of fuel or electricity is ubiquitous globally. Among energy types, electricity is crucial to human life in terms of cooking, warming and cooling of shelters, powering of electronic devices as well as commercial and industrial operations. Users of electronic devices sometimes consume fluctuating amounts of electricity generated from smart-grid infrastructure owned by the government or private investors. However, frequent imbalance is noticed between the demand and supply of electricity, hence effective planning is required to facilitate its distribution among consumers. Such effective planning is stimulated by the need to predict future consumption within a short period. Although several interesting classical techniques have been used for such predictions, they still require improvement for the purpose of reducing significant predictive errors when used for short-term load forecasting. This research develops a near-zero cooperative probabilistic scenario analysis and decision tree (PSA-DT model to address the lacuna of enormous predictive error faced by the state-of-the-art models. The PSA-DT is based on a probabilistic technique in view of the uncertain nature of electricity consumption, complemented by a DT to reinforce the collaboration of the two techniques. Based on detailed experimental analytics on residential, commercial and industrial data loads, the PSA-DT model outperforms the state-of-the-art models in terms of accuracy to a near-zero error rate. This implies that its deployment for electricity demand planning will be of great benefit to various smart-grid operators and homes.

  3. Natural gas supply for the EU in the short to medium term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahan, A.

    2004-03-01

    For the European Union it is predicted that gas will become the fastest growing source of energy, increasing in share of total EU energy consumption from 21% in 2001 to 27% in 2020. At the same time indigenous production will decrease so that the EU will increasingly become dependent on imports. This paper makes an inventory of and critically reviews the widely quoted publications which assess the options for the EU's natural gas supply up to 2010. In contrast to the more optimistic tone set by most of the publications used as reference material for this study, the paper concludes that supply for especially the North West European market might easily be very tight by 2010. The report features an overview of the perspectives for supplies from Norway, Algeria, Russia and LNG sources. Particular attention is also paid to the increasing importance of indigenous production and flexibility instruments for the accommodation of growing import volumes

  4. Short-term influences and long-term fundamentals: stabilizing and destabilizing effects in the energy industries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, Silvan [Royal Inst. of International Affairs, London (United Kingdom)

    1992-10-01

    The ideology of the market economy has become dominant in all walks of economic life and the energy industries are no exception. In the oil business, the stabilizing structures of the international majors and of long-term prices have been replaced by industrial fragmentation and market price mechanisms. Monopolies in other energy industries are being progressively dismantled. This live experiment is being conducted on an industry which historically has suffered from feast and famine economics and has tried to protect itself through various forms of cartelization. The short-term effects of this open market have so far tended to improve flexibility and consumer choice. The price instability has proved manageable. The danger is that cash flow compression will reduced investments in the future and an ability to make very long lead time shifts in the energy mix. For this some government intervention in markets is necessary. (author).

  5. The economic benefit of short-term forecasting for wind energy in the UK electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barthelmie, R.J.; Murray, F.; Pryor, S.C.

    2008-01-01

    In the UK market, the total price of renewable electricity is made up of the Renewables Obligation Certificate and the price achieved for the electricity. Accurate forecasting improves the price if electricity is traded via the power exchange. In order to understand the size of wind farm for which short-term forecasting becomes economically viable, we develop a model for wind energy. Simulations were carried out for 2003 electricity prices for different forecast accuracies and strategies. The results indicate that it is possible to increase the price obtained by around pound 5/MWh which is about 14% of the electricity price in 2003 and about 6% of the total price. We show that the economic benefit of using short-term forecasting is also dependant on the accuracy and cost of purchasing the forecast. As the amount of wind energy requiring integration into the grid increases, short-term forecasting becomes more important to both wind farm owners and the transmission/distribution operators. (author)

  6. Choice evaluation of power supply composition using the mapping method of the long-term energy demand-and-supply scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatematsu, Kenji

    2013-03-01

    Long-term energy demand-and-supply were analyzed for our country using the MARKAL model, supposing six kinds of energy demand-and-supply scenarios where different installed capacity of nuclear power generation and the emission standard of carbon-dioxide were employed. It was shown that even when nuclear power generation was not used, the carbon-dioxide emissions in the whole country and a power generation sector are reducible by 37% and 47% in 2050 from the 1990 level, respectively. However, when nuclear power generation was phase-out and renewable energy and natural gas were substituted, it was found that an average power generating cost was higher than the case where use of nuclear or coal was continued, 3.7 yen/kWh or more. Moreover, in the case where immediate cessation of the nuclear power generation was carried out, it was also shown that a current average power generating cost rose by 4.4 yen/kWh. In order to evaluate and visualize the influence of power supply composition change on both the average power generating cost and the carbon-dioxide emissions, a new mapping method was proposed where diversity of an energy source, the carbon-dioxide emissions, and the average power generating cost were used as indexes. Based on the result of model analysis, when nuclear power generation was substituted with renewable energy, natural gas, or coal, oligopoly of an energy source was shown to increase sharply by abolition of nuclear power generation. These results showed that by continuing use of the nuclear power generation with a fixed scale, less carbon-dioxide emissions, avoiding oligopolization of an energy source and suppressing the steep rise of an average power generating cost were possible. (author)

  7. Perspectives on long-term Eurasian energy supply: the role of the energy charter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemper, R.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines Croatian energy outlook in the broader 'Eurasian' context, taking into consideration the prospect of increasing energy import dependency in Western and Central Europe, and assesses the contribution that multilateral instruments, such as the Energy Charter Treaty, can make in promoting security of supply.(author)

  8. Short-term power plant operation scheduling in thermal systems with long-term boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolter, H.

    1990-01-01

    For the first time, the modeling of long-term quantitative conditions within the short-term planning of the application of power stations is made via their shadow prices. It corresponds to a decomposition of the quantitative conditions by means of the method of the Langrange relaxation. The shadow prices determined by the planning for energy application regarding long- term quantitative conditions pass into the short-term planning for power station application and subsidize or rather punish the application of limited amounts as for as they are not claimed for sufficiently or excessively. The clear advantage of this modeling is that the short-term planning of power station application can deviate from the envisioned energy application regarding the total optimum, because the shadow prices contain all information about the cost effect of the energy shifts in the residual total period, which become necessary due to the deviations in the short-term period to be planned in the current short-term period. (orig./DG) [de

  9. Options for new Swiss energy supply strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gantner, U.; Hirschberg, S.; Jakob, M.

    1999-01-01

    Ecologically neutral, cost efficient, without supply shortages, independent from foreign countries, risk- and waste-free - that is the image of an ideal future energy supply. But even if considerable ecological and economical improvements of various energy supply options can be achieved, the next generation of heat and power plants with the associated up- and down-stream parts of energy chains, will not comply with all such idealistic requirements. As research in the framework of the GaBE Project on 'Comprehensive Assessment of Energy Systems' has shown, among the reasons for this are the limited medium term potential of renewable energy sources, and the necessity to employ primarily non-renewable energy carriers for the emerging more efficient energy conversion processes. (author)

  10. Long-term uranium supply-demand analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-12-01

    It is the intention of this study to investigate the long-term uranium supply demand situation using a number of supply and demand related assumptions. For supply, these assumptions as used in the Resources and Production Projection (RAPP) model include country economic development status, and consequent lead times for exploration and development, uranium development status, country infrastructure, and uranium resources including the Reasonably Assured (RAR), Estimated Additional, Categories I and II, (EAR-I and II) and Speculative Resource categories. The demand assumptions were based on the ''pure'' reactor strategies developed by the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements for the 1986 OECD (NEA)/IAEA reports ''Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle: Prospects to 2025''. In addition for this study, a mixed strategy case was computed using the averages of the Plutonium (Pu) burning LWR high, and the improved LWR low cases. It is understandable that such a long-term analysis cannot present hard facts, but it can show which variables may in fact influence the long-term supply-demand situation. It is hoped that results of this study will provide valuable information for planners in the uranium supply and demand fields. Periodical re-analyses with updated data bases will be needed from time to time

  11. Long-term energy supply programs in West Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidt-Kuester, W J; Wagner, H F

    1977-07-01

    A discussion of the energy research and development plans, priorities, strategies, timetables, and current projects of the West German Government covers the measures aimed at the rational use of energy for home heating, expanded electricity production by light-water reactors, and solar energy use for hot-water production by 1985; at energy savings in industry and transport, improvements in secondary energy technology, large-scale production of gas, electricity, liquids, and coke from coal, underground gasification, construction of fast breeder reactors, solar heating in industrial applications, and local use of geothermal and wind energy by 2000; and at complete reliance on coal, nuclear fission, controlled nuclear fusion, and solar sources after the year 2000; the changes in the energy supply and demand structure in these periods; the share of the various projects in the B.R.D. budget for energy; and the status of current pilot-plant activity in the areas of, e.g., liquefaction, gasification, fission, and energy conversion and storage.

  12. Long term contracts in portfolios of core LDC gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    John, F.E.

    1992-01-01

    This paper recommends that local distribution companies (LDCs) should use a portfolio approach for their gas supply strategy. The author recommends that LDCs not rely on spot supplies to meet the peak needs of the core residential and commercial markets. He recommends that a secure supply through long-term contracts are better sources than spot or even intermediate term suppliers. The paper provides a brief outline format of the advantages to the use of a portfolio approach which include the rapid restructuring of the market, general changes in the market, and general market performance. By maintaining a portfolio, a list of available natural gas suppliers is always available. This portfolio also acts to compare pricing between short, medium, and long-term pricing for the LDCs

  13. Natural gas and energy security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saga, B.P.

    1996-01-01

    This paper relates to energy security by natural gas supply seen in an International Energy Agency perspective. Topics are: Security of supply, what is it; the role gas on the European energy scene; short term security of supply; long term security of supply; future structural and regulatory developments and possible implications for security of supply. 6 figs

  14. Agro-energy supply chain planning: a procedure to evaluate economic, energy and environmental sustainability

    OpenAIRE

    Fabrizio Ginaldi; Francesco Danuso; Franco Rosa; Alvaro Rocca; Oxana Bashanova; Emiliano Sossai

    2012-01-01

    The increasing demand for energy and expected shortage in the medium term, solicit innovative energy strategies to fulfill the increasing gap between demand-supply. For this purpose it is important to evaluate the potential supply of the energy crops and finding the areas of EU where it is most convenient. This paper proposes an agro-energy supply chain approach to planning the biofuel supply chain at a regional level. The proposed methodology is the result of an interdisciplinary team work a...

  15. The security of energy supplies in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuillemin, Francois

    2002-01-01

    As an attempt occurred against a French oil tanker in the Persian Gulf (in 2002), and showed that security of oil supplies is not only related to oil shock or to political environment such as the Cold War, this article discusses issues of security for European energy supplies. It first addresses the situation and the evolution of energy needs and resources in the World and in Europe: predictions of evolution of consumption and production, major role of fossil fuels in the European consumption. It discusses the outage risks: the supply security can be analysed with respect to consumption per sector, per usage or per energy product, and Europe must face three major risks (no more hydrocarbon resources at a reasonable cost, economic risk due to market volatility, geopolitical risk). The next part discusses the perspective of a European strategy. It identifies several elements of choice for Europe in terms of energy demand management, of opening up to competition of electricity and gas markets. It discusses European ambitions in terms of supply security: need of a community framework, actual propositions of a directive for oil and gas

  16. Security of supply and regulation of energy networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamasb, Tooraj; Pollitt, Michael

    2008-01-01

    In recent years, the security of energy supplies has re-emerged as a central issue in the energy policy arena in the UK and elsewhere. This re-emergence takes place against a backdrop of increased liberalisation of the energy markets, so that security of supply needs to be revisited within this context. Security of supply is multifaceted, but is often discussed in terms of physical availability of energy sources and their commodity price risk. This paper discusses the relationship between security of supply and network regulation - that is, how the energy networks, and appropriate regulation of them, can contribute to security of supply in liberalised energy sectors. Energy networks are predominantly natural monopolies and as a result are generally subject to regulatory oversight. We discuss a range of issues and trends that pose challenges and opportunities to network regulation and which call for new and innovative measures. The paper identifies a number of areas where network regulation can play a significant role in increasing the security of supply of future energy systems. (author)

  17. Model analyses for sustainable energy supply under CO2 restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuhashi, Ryuji; Ishitani, Hisashi.

    1995-01-01

    This paper aims at clarifying key points for realizing sustainable energy supply under restrictions on CO 2 emissions. For this purpose, possibility of solar breeding system is investigated as a key technology for the sustainable energy supply. The authors describe their mathematical model simulating global energy supply and demand in ultra-long term. Depletion of non-renewable resources and constraints on CO 2 emissions are taken into consideration in the model. Computed results have shown that present energy system based on non-renewable resources shifts to a system based on renewable resources in the ultra-long term with appropriate incentives

  18. Nuclear power: energy security and supply assurances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.; McDonald, A.

    2008-01-01

    Expectations are high for nuclear power. This paper first summarizes recent global and regional projections for the medium-term, including the 2007 updates of IAEA projections plus International Energy Agency and World Energy Technology Outlook projections to 2030 and 2050. One driving force for nuclear power is concern about energy supply security. Two potential obstacles are concerns about increased nuclear weapon proliferation risks, and concerns by some countries about potential politically motivated nuclear fuel supply interruptions. Concerning supply security, the paper reviews different definitions, strategies and costs. Supply security is not free; nor does nuclear power categorically increase energy supply security in all situations. Concerning proliferation and nuclear fuel cut-off risks, the IAEA and others are exploring possible 'assurance of supply' mechanisms with 2 motivations. First, the possibility of a political fuel supply interruption is a non-market disincentive discouraging investment in nuclear power. Fuel supply assurance mechanisms could reduce this disincentive. Second, the risk of interruption creates an incentive for a country to insure against that risk by developing a national enrichment capability. Assurance mechanisms could reduce this incentive, thereby reducing the possible spread of new national enrichment capabilities and any associated weapon proliferation risks. (orig.)

  19. Illusion of the public philosophy related to a new energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bockris, J.O'M.

    1986-01-01

    The public philosophy is examined in respect to beliefs, alleged here to be irrational, concerning the lastingness of coal, acid rain, alternatives to energy sources which cause environmental damage, the dangers of hydrogen, a dependence upon a supposed 'government energy overseer' and the individual's powerlessness to affect energy progress. Energy scientists are alleged to believe that a nuclear base to the energy supply can avoid plutonium; that fusion would lack environmental hazards, and that 'energy costs are small' so that, for instance, doubling them will not greatly effect the economy. Such thinking is short term: it lacks an ecological component; suffers from inertia, and from projecting the position of the seller, never that of the buyer. Barriers to a change to inexhaustible energy sources are socio-political, and economic. A positive step is suggested for remedying this situation. (author)

  20. Hybrid ARIMAX quantile regression method for forecasting short term electricity consumption in east java

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prastuti, M.; Suhartono; Salehah, NA

    2018-04-01

    The need for energy supply, especially for electricity in Indonesia has been increasing in the last past years. Furthermore, the high electricity usage by people at different times leads to the occurrence of heteroscedasticity issue. Estimate the electricity supply that could fulfilled the community’s need is very important, but the heteroscedasticity issue often made electricity forecasting hard to be done. An accurate forecast of electricity consumptions is one of the key challenges for energy provider to make better resources and service planning and also take control actions in order to balance the electricity supply and demand for community. In this paper, hybrid ARIMAX Quantile Regression (ARIMAX-QR) approach was proposed to predict the short-term electricity consumption in East Java. This method will also be compared to time series regression using RMSE, MAPE, and MdAPE criteria. The data used in this research was the electricity consumption per half-an-hour data during the period of September 2015 to April 2016. The results show that the proposed approach can be a competitive alternative to forecast short-term electricity in East Java. ARIMAX-QR using lag values and dummy variables as predictors yield more accurate prediction in both in-sample and out-sample data. Moreover, both time series regression and ARIMAX-QR methods with addition of lag values as predictor could capture accurately the patterns in the data. Hence, it produces better predictions compared to the models that not use additional lag variables.

  1. The best-mix of power demand and supply. Energy system integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogimoto, Kazuhiko

    2012-01-01

    In September 2012 after nationwide discussions, Energy and Environmental Council decided 'Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment': (1) Realization of a society not dependent on nuclear power, (2) Realization of green energy revolution, (3) For ensuring stable supply of energy, (4) Bold implementation of reform of electricity power systems and (5) Steady implementation of global warming countermeasures. Energy problem should be considered as supply and demand of whole energy. However, long-term energy problem such as in 2050 should assume global limits of fossil fuel supply and carbon dioxide emission and then in order to realize sustainable demand and supply of energy, maximum deployment of renewable energy power in primary energy and most practicable electrification of final demand for energy conservation should be implemented. Best mix of power and energy demand and supply would be significant to some extent. This article outlined analysis of power demand and supply in a long term, future power technologies and demand side management, and problems of power system operation and their solution, and then described energy system integration to realize power and energy/society best mix. (T. Tanaka)

  2. Comparison of centralized and decentralized energy supply systems

    OpenAIRE

    Pfeifer, Thomas; Fahl, Ulrich; Voß, Alfred

    1991-01-01

    Communal energy programs are often embedded in a conception of a decentralized energy supply system where electricity is produced by a number of smaller power plants. For a comprehensive survey the question arises whether these decentralized systems are more advantageous than centralized systems with regard to the criterions energy consumption, safety of supply, environmental compatibility and economy. In the following, after a definition of the term "decentralized", the present structure of ...

  3. Nuclear energy and ensuring the long-term energy supply in the German Federal Republic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koenig, H.H.

    1975-01-01

    The author reports on the papers read at the Reactor Conference in 1975. He pays special attention to the development of energy supply from nuclear stations, investigates the motives behind the growing resistance of the public, and shows that the acceptance procedure ensures the construction and operation of safe nuclear power installations. He also discusses the possibilities of improved energy utilisation, the climatic changes in coming generations, the characteristics of supply with nuclear district heating and process heat, as well as the state of building projects with high-temperature reactors and fast breeders. (orig.) [de

  4. Japan revises its long-term energy supply and demand outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1988-01-01

    A report, published recently by the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry, revises earlier official views about how the industrial colossus plans to meet its energy needs to the end of century and beyond. A small chapter is devoted to the role of nuclear power in Japans energy supply. (qui)

  5. Creating a vision for the future. Long-term R and D on a short sighted electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markussen, P.; Darsoe, L.

    2005-01-01

    Historically well-established networks among the politicians, power companies, industry, and research institutions have with success dominated innovation in the energy sector. As a consequence of the liberalization in the late 90s, long-term investments have been reduced and because of the increased competition R and D in power companies around Europe is dominated by short-term projects focusing on technological performance and efficiency of the power stations. The energy sector is, however, still faced with long-term problems such as security of supply, environmental responsibilities and economic performance, and these challenges demand new solutions, which, in our opinion, should be obtained through collaboration and co-creation. This calls for social innovation based on new types of relations between research institutions, politicians and the energy supply sector. Thus the goals of this paper are to: 1) suggest a preject phase (Darsoe, 2001), where it is possible and legitimate for the stakeholders to discuss longterm visions that encompass a diversity of technologies, and 2) use scenario techniques as tools for conceptualizing and prototyping this vision. The main question is: How can we create a long-term vision for the Danish energy system that is meaningful to multiple stakeholders? (au)

  6. Creating a vision for the future. Long-term R and D on a short sighted electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Markussen, P. [Elsam (Denmark); Darsoe, L. [Learning Lab. Denmark (Denmark)

    2005-06-01

    Historically well-established networks among the politicians, power companies, industry, and research institutions have with success dominated innovation in the energy sector. As a consequence of the liberalization in the late 90s, long-term investments have been reduced and because of the increased competition R and D in power companies around Europe is dominated by short-term projects focusing on technological performance and efficiency of the power stations. The energy sector is, however, still faced with long-term problems such as security of supply, environmental responsibilities and economic performance, and these challenges demand new solutions, which, in our opinion, should be obtained through collaboration and co-creation. This calls for social innovation based on new types of relations between research institutions, politicians and the energy supply sector. Thus the goals of this paper are to: 1) suggest a preject phase (Darsoe, 2001), where it is possible and legitimate for the stakeholders to discuss longterm visions that encompass a diversity of technologies, and 2) use scenario techniques as tools for conceptualizing and prototyping this vision. The main question is: How can we create a long-term vision for the Danish energy system that is meaningful to multiple stakeholders? (au)

  7. Current problems of the Bulgarian energy industry against the background of global short-term energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batov, S.

    1999-01-01

    The energy demand during the next century due first of all to the expected growth of population necessitates more efficient technologies and huge investments. The production of nuclear energy requires higher safety as well as reduction of costs. A new form of partnership between the developed and developing countries is needed for transferring capital and technologies at special framework terms in order to avoid errors in the process of transition. The Energy Forum'99 highlights the current problems of Bulgarian energy branch and the projects for its future including better utilization of the existing energy resources, for development of new or renewable energy sources, not well utilized at present, and to harmonize the sector with better environmental protection. The most important problems discussed are: 1. Structure and restructuring strategy of the energy sector. Prices and tariffs. Privatization aspects. Construction of new replacement generating capacities; 2. Thermal power plants; 3. Nuclear power plants; 4. District heating and natural gas supply; 5. Efficient energy utilization; 6. Renewable energy sources; 7. Environmental protection and 8. Education

  8. Long-range outlook of energy demands and supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    An interim report on the long-range outlook of energy demands and supplies in Japan as prepared by an ad hoc committee, Advisory Committee for Energy was given for the period up to the year 2000. As the energy demands in terms of crude oil, the following figures are set: 460 million kl for 1990, 530 million kl for 1995, and 600 million kl for 2000. In Japan, without domestic energy resources, over 80% of the primary energy has been imported; the reliance on Middle East where political situation is unstable, for petroleum is very large. The following things are described. Background and policy; energy demands in industries, transports, and people's livelihood; energy supplies by coal, nuclear energy, petroleum, etc.; energy demand/supply outlook for 2000. (Mori, K.)

  9. Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Using the Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization Based Hybrid Method

    OpenAIRE

    Wen-Yeau Chang

    2013-01-01

    High penetration of wind power in the electricity system provides many challenges to power system operators, mainly due to the unpredictability and variability of wind power generation. Although wind energy may not be dispatched, an accurate forecasting method of wind speed and power generation can help power system operators reduce the risk of an unreliable electricity supply. This paper proposes an enhanced particle swarm optimization (EPSO) based hybrid forecasting method for short-term wi...

  10. Energy supply. Energieversorgung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eickhof, N.

    1983-01-01

    This anthology presents nine papers dealing with the following subjects: 1) international and national aspects of energy supply, 2) regional and local energy supply concepts, and 3) issues of district-heat supply. Each of the nine papers was entered separately.

  11. Developing Exchange in Short Local Foods Supply Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Engelseth

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The supply chain management of foods is commonly associated with modernistic large-scale production. This involves long transport distances of foods to reach consumers. In the case of local foods, supply chains are shorter. Based on a case study of five local foods producer's supply of their products to a common retailer, the supply chain of local foods is modelled conceptually and modes of development are pointed out based on contingency theory and supply chain management literature. Findings reveal that since these chains are transparent, reciprocal interdependency is abundant mainly because human perception creates a sufficient understanding of the operations management issues pertinent within this simple inter-organisational structure. Local foods supply chains are similar to service supply chains. This includes that both are short in nature and associated with bi-directional interaction between the customer and supplier. Developing short supply chains in local foods supply is associated with improving the exchange economy found in short supply chains. This also implies that development of local foods supply is associated with two paths which may be complementary. First, the use of improved intensive technology associated with reciprocal interdependency to develop efficiencies in the bi-directional and somewhat complex interaction. Alternatively local foods suppliers may seek to reduce this form of reciprocal interdependency thereby increasing the impact of pooled interdependencies and enabling using mediating technology involving standardising interaction such as through increased standardised products and packaging as well as automation of information connectivity.

  12. Issue on supply chain of renewable energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cucchiella, Federica; D’Adamo, Idiano

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • One of the most relevant debates, is related to energy and environmental issue. • The development of renewable energy usage is due to several factors. • Indeed challenges from a supply chain point of view are required. • Thorough survey on topics of supply chain and renewable energy has been conducted. • Findings are discussed against the backdrop of SCs as sustainable RE option. - Abstract: Actually, one of the most relevant debates, among both citizens that government, is related to energy and environmental issue. The development of renewable energy usage is due to several factors such as the political strategic decisions and geographical situation. Indeed the high development of renewable energies requires challenges from a supply chain point of view. In this paper, a thorough survey of the extant literature on the topic of supply chain (SC) and renewable energy (RE) has been conducted. English papers published on international peer-reviewed journals from 2003 to 2013 have been considered. Sustainable Supply Chain Management (SSCM) resolves the duality between environmental, economic and social aspects. Sustainable manufacturing practices play an essential role in promoting renewable energy development and commercialization; this will require significant changes to the industry’s traditional Supply Chain Management and business model. The aim of the paper is investigate literature insights useful to increase the performance and overcome barriers to the RE supply chain development. Like many typical supply chains, also supply chain related to RE includes elements such as: physical, information, and financial flows. The present research is useful to individualize characteristics of a RE supply chain. Moreover, the research is useful improve the performance of RE supply chain in some aspects like: • better control supply chain costs to make renewable energy more affordable; • manage supply chain to address weakened demand in the near

  13. Energy storage systems impact on the short-term frequency stability of distributed autonomous microgrids, an analysis using aggregate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Serban, Ioan; Teodorescu, Remus; Marinescu, Corneliu

    2013-01-01

    This study analyses the integration impact of battery energy storage systems (BESSs) on the short-term frequency control in autonomous microgrids (MGs). Short-term frequency stability relates with the primary or speed control level, as defined in the regulations of the classical grids. The focus...

  14. Evaluation of nuclear power development scenarios in romania envisaging the long-term national energy sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margeanu, C.; Apostol, M.; Visan, I.; Prodea, I.

    2015-01-01

    The paper summarizes the results of RATEN ICN Pitesti experts' activities in the IAEA's Collaborative Project INPRO-SYNERGIES. Romanian study proposes to evaluate and analyze development of the nuclear capacity and increasing of its share in national energy sector, envisaging the long term national and regional energy sustainability by keeping options open for the future while bringing solutions to short/medium-term challenges. The study focused on the modelling of national NES (Nuclear Energy System) development on short and medium-term (time horizon 2050), considering the existing NFC (Nuclear Fuel Cycle) infrastructure and legislation, provisions of strategic documents in force and including also the possibility of regional collaboration regarding U/fresh fuel supply and SF (Spent Fuel) storage, as services provided at international market prices. The energy system modelling was realized by using the IAEA's MESSAGE program. The study results offer a clear image and also the possible answer to several key questions regarding: potential of nuclear energy to participate with an important share in national energy mix, in conditions of cost competitiveness, safety and security of supply; impact on national energy mix portfolio of capacities and electricity production; impact on Uranium domestic resources; economic projection/investments needed for new nuclear capacities addition; fresh fuel requirements for nuclear capacities; SF annually discharged and transferred to interim wet storage for cooling; SF volume in interim dry storage, etc. (authors)

  15. Optimization of operation of energy supply systems with co-generation and absorption refrigeration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stojiljković Mirko M.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Co-generation systems, together with absorption refrigeration and thermal storage, can result in substantial benefits from the economic, energy and environmental point of view. Optimization of operation of such systems is important as a component of the entire optimization process in pre-construction phases, but also for short-term energy production planning and system control. This paper proposes an approach for operational optimization of energy supply systems with small or medium scale co-generation, additional boilers and heat pumps, absorption and compression refrigeration, thermal energy storage and interconnection to the electric utility grid. In this case, the objective is to minimize annual costs related to the plant operation. The optimization problem is defined as mixed integer nonlinear and solved combining modern stochastic techniques: genetic algorithms and simulated annealing with linear programming using the object oriented “ESO-MS” software solution for simulation and optimization of energy supply systems, developed as a part of this research. This approach is applied to optimize a hypothetical plant that might be used to supply a real residential settlement in Niš, Serbia. Results are compared to the ones obtained after transforming the problem to mixed 0-1 linear and applying the branch and bound method.

  16. Copenhagen Energy Vision

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Lund, Rasmus Søgaard; Connolly, David

    The short-term goal for The City of Copenhagen is a CO2 neutral energy supply by the year 2025, and the long-term vision for Denmark is a 100% renewable energy (RE) supply by the year 2050. In this project, it is concluded that Copenhagen plays a key role in this transition. The long-term vision...

  17. Natural Gas Year 2014 and Short-Term Outlook First Estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hureau, Geoffroy; Lecarpentier, Armelle

    2015-01-01

    CEDIGAZ first estimates confirm the slowdown in the growth of gas supply seen in the past two years. CEDIGAZ expects a moderate 1.1% growth, on a par with the previous year. Net slowdown in China's gas demand growth (+ 8% in 2014, versus 16%/y over 2008-13). European natural gas consumption decline worsened (- 10%), largely due to mild weather. Strong decline in CIS' gas production and consumption amidst the Ukraine conflict. Surging US production (+ 5.7%), driven by shale gas. Significant decline in international pipeline trade (- 4.8%): Russian gas exports at the lowest in decade: -13% (- 9.7% to Europe, - 24% to the CIS); US net pipeline imports down 5% (effect of shale gas). 2014 showed a turnaround on the LNG market, after four years of market tightening: Additional LNG supply in Asia, combined with weather-related weak demand. Dramatic reduction of both European and Asian spot LNG prices in this context. Positive developments of US LNG projects (Cameron, Cove Point, Freeport all took FID...), which will likely delay other competing LNG projects (Russia, Canada, East Africa). In the short term, global gas demand growth is likely to remain moderate. The European market will continue to suffer from strong competition with coal and renewables + slowdown in Chinese gas demand growth. Uncertainties on the future evolution of the well-supplied LNG market and international prices until 2020 (demand in price-sensitive emerging markets...). Increasing pressure to cut subsidies in emerging markets in order to increase supply for a more viable development of natural gas in the long term. Recent structural and not temporary factors which could affect long term gas demand growth, such as the competition with other energy fuels (coal). Energy policies and general environmental regulations will thus be critical factors influencing natural gas demand (China). The Asian market will keep a major influence on the global LNG market

  18. Mexico's long-term energy outlook : results of a detailed energy supply and demand simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conzelmann, G.; Quintanilla, J.; Conde, L.A.; Fernandez, J.; Mar, E.; Martin del Campo, C.; Serrato, G.; Ortega, R.

    2006-01-01

    This article discussed the results of a bottom-up analysis of Mexico's energy markets which was conducted using an energy and power evaluation program. The program was used to develop energy market forecasts to the year 2025. In the first phase of the study, dynamic optimization software was used to determine the optimal, least-cost generation system expansion path to meet growing demand for electricity. A separate model was used to determine the optimal generating strategy of mixed hydro-thermal electric power systems. In phase 2, a nonlinear market-based approach was used to determine the energy supply and demand balance for the entire energy system, as well as the response of various segments of the energy system to changes in energy price and demand levels. Basic input parameters included information on the energy system structure; base-year energy statistics; and, technical and policy constraints. A total of 14 scenarios were modelled to examine variations in load growth, sensitivities to changes in projected fuel prices, variations in assumed natural gas availability, system reliability targets, and the potential for additional nuclear capacity. Forecasts for the entire energy system were then developed for 4 scenarios: (1) reference case; (2) limited gas scenario; (3) renewable energy; and (4) additional nuclear power generation capacity. Results of the study showed that Mexico's crude oil production is projected to increase annually by 1 per cent to 2025. Imports of petroleum products resulting from the country's rapidly growing transportation sector will increase. Demand for natural gas is expected to outpace projected domestic production. The long-term market outlook for Mexico's electricity industry shows a heavy reliance on natural gas-based generating technologies. It was concluded that alternative results for a constrained-gas scenario showed a substantial shift to coal-based generation and associated effects on the natural gas market. 4 refs., 26

  19. In the Way of Peacemaker Guide Curve between Water Supply and Flood Control for Short Term Reservoir Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uysal, G.; Sensoy, A.; Yavuz, O.; Sorman, A. A.; Gezgin, T.

    2012-04-01

    Effective management of a controlled reservoir system where it involves multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives is a complex problem especially in real time operations. Yuvacık Dam Reservoir, located in the Marmara region of Turkey, is built to supply annual demand of 142 hm3 water for Kocaeli city requires such a complex management strategy since it has relatively small (51 hm3) effective capacity. On the other hand, the drainage basin is fed by both rainfall and snowmelt since the elevation ranges between 80 - 1548 m. Excessive water must be stored behind the radial gates between February and May in terms of sustainability especially for summer and autumn periods. Moreover, the downstream channel physical conditions constraint the spillway releases up to 100 m3/s although the spillway is large enough to handle major floods. Thus, this situation makes short term release decisions the challenging task. Long term water supply curves, based on historical inflows and annual water demand, are in conflict with flood regulation (control) levels, based on flood attenuation and routing curves, for this reservoir. A guide curve, that is generated using both water supply and flood control of downstream channel, generally corresponds to upper elevation of conservation pool for simulation of a reservoir. However, sometimes current operation necessitates exceeding this target elevation. Since guide curves can be developed as a function of external variables, the water potential of a basin can be an indicator to explain current conditions and decide on the further strategies. Besides, releases with respect to guide curve are managed and restricted by user-defined rules. Although the managers operate the reservoir due to several variable conditions and predictions, still the simulation model using variable guide curve is an urgent need to test alternatives quickly. To that end, using HEC-ResSim, the several variable guide curves are defined to meet the requirements by

  20. Assessing reliability in energy supply systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCarthy, Ryan W.; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Daniel

    2007-01-01

    Reliability has always been a concern in the energy sector, but concerns are escalating as energy demand increases and the political stability of many energy supply regions becomes more questionable. But how does one define and measure reliability? We introduce a method to assess reliability in energy supply systems in terms of adequacy and security. It derives from reliability assessment frameworks developed for the electricity sector, which are extended to include qualitative considerations and to be applicable to new energy systems by incorporating decision-making processes based on expert opinion and multi-attribute utility theory. The method presented here is flexible and can be applied to any energy system. To illustrate its use, we apply the method to two hydrogen pathways: (1) centralized steam reforming of imported liquefied natural gas with pipeline distribution of hydrogen, and (2) on-site electrolysis of water using renewable electricity produced independently from the electricity grid

  1. Design and performance of a clean and economic power supply targeting energy independence and operative security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mushtaha, Mohammed

    2012-07-01

    Stand alone wind-diesel power systems address the major issues for the supply of remotely located consumers or the provision of enhanced energy independence. The specific configuration considered here comprises a prior wind turbine driven induction generator and a supplementary synchronous generator driven by a combustion engine, the latter caring for frequency control and reactive power balance. An accumulator-bank and a hydrogen storage path consisting of an electrolyzer and a hydrogen storage tank are added as short-term and long-term storage devices - respectively - in order to adjust volatile wind generation and varying load demand. The hydrogen re-conversion to electricity is achieved by design of the drive of the synchronous generator as a dual-fuel engine, fed with stored hydrogen primarily, and with diesel oil in case of the rare event of hydrogen storage emptiness. An elementary waste heat recovery from engine cooling water and from exhaust gases makes the system even more energy efficient and environment friendly. For proper sizing of the particular system components under minimization of the life cycle cost - which are composed of the initial installation cost, the replacement cost, the operation and maintenance cost as well as the remaining fuel cost - the meta-heuristic computational method of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was applied. The crucial task of intelligently managing the energy storage strategy depending on their actual states of charge and the current excess power under a given load profile was solved by a fuzzy system and a subsequent time scheduler, the latter providing definite set-point steps for definite periods of time to the electrolyzer in order to achieve smooth and conservative operation. The concrete design and performance of the proposed system structure is shown with the two relevant application examples of independent electricity supply of the main hospital in Gaza-Strip, Palestine, and a remotely located dairy farm. For

  2. Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration's (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook

  3. Long term outlook for gas supply and demand 2007-2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-05-01

    Given the economic crisis and the even greater focus of energy policy in recent years on energy efficiency and renewables, earlier expectations in respect of gas demand have to be lowered. Nonetheless, there are still good prospects for gas expanding its position in the EU energy market in the medium to long term. Environmental friendliness and highly efficient technologies in all areas of energy supply give gas a key role in a realistic EU climate policy, the goals of which cannot be achieved solely through increased use of renewables. Its green qualities make gas attractive in direct utilisation in homes and businesses, in centralised power generation, in local CHP plant (including micro-CHP), and - in some member states - in the transport sector too. The current slump in demand is accompanied by strong supply pressure on European procurement markets. Experts do not predict that the present excess supply situation will continue in the long term. It is expected that imports to Europe will rise in order to compensate for the impending fall in domestic European production and to supply additional gas. The procurement challenge cannot be considered in isolation from global developments. The increasing demand for gas worldwide will intensify the competition for global gas reserves on international markets. The European gas industry emphasises the importance of fostering long-term relationships with major suppliers, transit countries and key partners in the EU as well as with multilateral organisations and structures.

  4. An Empirical Study on the Driving Path of Optimizing the Resources Allocation of Foreign Trade Enterprises from the Perspective of Energy Supply-side Reform

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Yu-cong; Yi, Lu-xia

    2017-11-01

    From the perspective of energy supply-side reform, this paper, by conducting an empirical study on foreign trade enterprises, conducts a research on the cross-role effect of optimizing the resources allocation and enhancing the energy efficiency. Methodologically, this paper creatively introduces the HILE's probabilistic structured property into Granger causality test analysis, forming an HILE-Granger (H-G) model, so as to empirically estimate both the short-term and long-term causal relationship effects between the energy efficiency and resources allocation. Conclusion is drawn that optimization of resources allocation is positively proportional with the energy efficiency enhancement. This paper is to provide a decision-making reference for the supply side reform strategy of foreign trade enterprises under the background of green energy economy.

  5. Accelerator-driven thermal fission systems may provide energy supply advantages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linford, R.K.

    1992-01-01

    This presentation discusses the energy supply advantages of using accelerator-driven thermal fission systems. Energy supply issues as related to cost, fuel supply stability, environmental impact, and safety are reviewed. It is concluded that the Los Alamos Accelerator Transmutation of Waste (ATW) concept, discussed here, has the following advantages: improved safety in the form of low inventory and subcriticality; reduced high-level radioactive waste management timescales for both fission products and actinides; and a very long-term fuel supply requiring no enrichment

  6. The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perwez, Usama; Sohail, Ahmed; Hassan, Syed Fahad; Zia, Usman

    2015-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of electricity demand and supply has assumed significant importance in fundamental research to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity issues. In this article, we provide an overview of structure of electric power sector of Pakistan and a summary of historical electricity demand & supply data, current status of divergent set of energy policies as a framework for development and application of a LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternate Planning) model of Pakistan's electric power sector. Pakistan's LEAP model is used to analyze the supply policy selections and demand assumptions for future power generation system on the basis of economics, technicality and implicit environmental implications. Three scenarios are enacted over the study period (2011–2030) which include BAU (Business-As-Usual), NC (New Coal) & GF (Green Future). The results of these scenarios are compared in terms of projected electricity demand & supply, net present cost analysis (discount rate at 4%, 7% and 10%) and GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reductions, along with sensitivity analysis to study the effect of varying parameters on total cost. A concluding section illustrates the policy implications of model for futuristic power generation and environmental policies in Pakistan. - Highlights: • Pakistan-specific electricity demand model is presented. • None of the scenarios exceeded the price of 12 US Cents/kWh. • By 2030, fuel cost is the most dominant factor to influence electricity per unit cost. • By 2030, CO_2 emissions per unit electricity will increase significantly in coal scenario relative to others. • By 2030, the penetration of renewable energy and conservation policies can save 70.6 tWh electricity.

  7. A study on energy security and nuclear energy role

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ujita, Hiroshi

    2011-01-01

    Energy security was a major concern for OECD governments in the early 1970s. Since then, successive oil crises, volatility of hydrocarbon prices, as well as terrorist risks and natural disasters, have brought the issue back to the centre stage of policy agendas. Here, an energy security concept has been proposed, which is defined by time frame and space frame as well. Wide-meaning energy security is divided broadly into two categories. One is short-term (∼10 y) energy crisis, which is narrow-meaning energy security. Short-term energy crisis is further divided into contingent crisis, such as energy supply chain (sealane) interruption due to conflict, accident, terrorism, etc., and structural crisis, such as price fluctuations, supply shortage, energy demand increase in Asia, technology development stagnation, etc. The other is long-term (∼100 y) energy crisis and global energy problems, such as fossil fuel exhaustion and global warming. (author)

  8. Transient analysis of the output short-circuit fault of high power and high voltage DC power supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Zhigang; Zhang Jian; Huang Yiyun; Hao Xu; Sun Haozhang; Guo Fei

    2014-01-01

    The transient conditions of output short-circuit fault of high voltage DC power supply was introduced, and the energy of power supply injecting into klystron during the protection process of three-electrode gas switch were analyzed and calculated in detail when klystron load happening electrode arc faults. The results of calculation and simulation are consistent with the results of the experiment. When the output short-circuit fault of high voltage power supply occurs, switch can be shut off in the microsecond, and the short circuit current can be controlled in 200 A. It has verified the rapidity and reliability of the three-electrode gas switch protection, and it has engineering application value. (authors)

  9. The uranium industry: long term planning for short term competition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vottero, X.

    2000-01-01

    Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. (authors)

  10. Study of a nuclear energy supplied steelmaking system for near-term application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan, Xing L.; Kasahara, Seiji; Tachibana, Yukio; Kunitomi, Kazuhiko

    2012-01-01

    Conventional steelmaking processes involve intensive fossil fuel consumption and CO 2 emission. The system resulting from this study ties a steelmaking plant to a nuclear plant. The latter supplies the former all energy and feedstock with the exception of iron ore. The actual design takes on a multi-disciplinary approach: The nuclear plant employs a proven next-generation technology of fission reactor with 950 °C outlet temperature to produce electricity and heat. The plant construction saving and high efficiency keep the cogeneration cost down. The steelmaking plant employs conventional furnaces but substitutes hydrogen and oxygen for hydrocarbons as reactant and fuel. Water decomposition through an experimentally-demonstrated thermochemical process manufactures the feedstock gases required. Through essential safety features, particular a fully-passive nuclear safety, the design achieves physical proximity and yet operational independence of the two plants to facilitate inter-plant energy transmission. Calculated energy and material balance of the integrated system yields slightly over 1000 t steel per 1 MWt yr nuclear thermal energy. The steel cost is estimated competitive. The CO 2 emission amounts to 1% of conventional processes. The sustainable performance, economical potential, robust safety, and use of verified technological bases attract near-term deployment of this nuclear steelmaking system. -- Highlights: ► A steelmaking concept is proposed based on multi-disciplinary approach. ► It ties advanced nuclear fission reactor and energy conversion to thermochemical manufacture and direct iron making. ► Technological strength of each area is exploited to integrate a final process. ► Heat and material balance of the process is made to predict performance and cost. ► The system rules out fossil fuel use and CO 2 emission, and is near-term deployable.

  11. Short-Term Effects of Drying-Rewetting and Long-Term Effects of Nutrient Loading on Periphyton N:P Stoichiometry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andres D. Sola

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Nitrogen (N and phosphorus (P concentrations and N:P ratios critically influence periphyton productivity and nutrient cycling in aquatic ecosystems. In coastal wetlands, variations in hydrology and water source (fresh or marine influence nutrient availability, but short-term effects of drying and rewetting and long-term effects of nutrient exposure on periphyton nutrient retention are uncertain. An outdoor microcosm experiment simulated short-term exposure to variation in drying-rewetting frequency on periphyton mat nutrient retention. A 13-year dataset from freshwater marshes of the Florida Everglades was examined for the effect of long-term proximity to different N and P sources on mat-forming periphyton nutrient standing stocks and stoichiometry. Field sites were selected from one drainage with shorter hydroperiod and higher connectivity to freshwater anthropogenic nutrient supplies (Taylor Slough/Panhandle, TS/Ph and another drainage with longer hydroperiod and higher connectivity to marine nutrient supplies (Shark River Slough, SRS. Total P, but not total N, increased in periphyton mats exposed to both low and high drying-rewetting frequency with respect to the control mats in our experimental microcosm. In SRS, N:P ratios slightly decreased downstream due to marine nutrient supplies, while TS/Ph increased. Mats exposed to short-term drying-rewetting had higher nutrient retention, similar to nutrient standing stocks from long-term field data. Periphyton mat microbial communities may undergo community shifts upon drying-rewetting and chronic exposure to nutrient loads. Additional work on microbial species composition may further explain how periphyton communities interact with drying-rewetting dynamics to influence nutrient cycling and retention in wetlands.

  12. Estimating Swedish biomass energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansson, J.; Lundqvist, U.

    1999-01-01

    Biomass is suggested to supply an increasing amount of energy in Sweden. There have been several studies estimating the potential supply of biomass energy, including that of the Swedish Energy Commission in 1995. The Energy Commission based its estimates of biomass supply on five other analyses which presented a wide variation in estimated future supply, in large part due to differing assumptions regarding important factors. In this paper, these studies are assessed, and the estimated potential biomass energy supplies are discusses regarding prices, technical progress and energy policy. The supply of logging residues depends on the demand for wood products and is limited by ecological, technological, and economic restrictions. The supply of stemwood from early thinning for energy and of straw from cereal and oil seed production is mainly dependent upon economic considerations. One major factor for the supply of willow and reed canary grass is the size of arable land projected to be not needed for food and fodder production. Future supply of biomass energy depends on energy prices and technical progress, both of which are driven by energy policy priorities. Biomass energy has to compete with other energy sources as well as with alternative uses of biomass such as forest products and food production. Technical progress may decrease the costs of biomass energy and thus increase the competitiveness. Economic instruments, including carbon taxes and subsidies, and allocation of research and development resources, are driven by energy policy goals and can change the competitiveness of biomass energy

  13. What is the place of the energy supply security and energy independence in the energy policy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-12-01

    Since the petroleum crisis and the electric power cuts of the 1999 storm, the energy security interest is growing. The author recall the structural risks of the energy systems and the vulnerability of the occidental economies to the supply disruptions. They propose then a long term cooperation between producer and consumer countries, a development of operational tools to face the crisis and a supply security inside the europe. (A.L.B.)

  14. Short term economic emission power scheduling of hydrothermal energy systems using improved water cycle algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haroon, S.S.; Malik, T.N.

    2017-01-01

    Due to the increasing environmental concerns, the demand of clean and green energy and concern of atmospheric pollution is increasing. Hence, the power utilities are forced to limit their emissions within the prescribed limits. Therefore, the minimization of fuel cost as well as exhaust gas emissions is becoming an important and challenging task in the short-term scheduling of hydro-thermal energy systems. This paper proposes a novel algorithm known as WCA-ER (Water Cycle Algorithm with Evaporation Rate) to inspect the short term EEPSHES (Economic Emission Power Scheduling of Hydrothermal Energy Systems). WCA has its ancestries from the natural hydrologic cycle i.e. the raining process forms streams and these streams start flowing towards the rivers which finally flow towards the sea. The worth of WCA-ER has been tested on the standard economic emission power scheduling of hydrothermal energy test system consisting of four hydropower and three thermal plants. The problem has been investigated for the three case studies (i) ECS (Economic Cost Scheduling), (ii) ES (Economic Emission Scheduling) and (iii) ECES (Economic Cost and Emission Scheduling). The results obtained show that WCA-ER is superior to many other methods in the literature in bringing lower fuel cost and emissions. (author)

  15. Natural gas market assessment. Natural gas supply, western Canada: Recent developments (1982-1992), [and] short-term deliverability outlook (1993-1996)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-11-01

    A review is presented of the evolution of gas supply from western Canada over the last ten years and a short-term forecast of gas deliverability. To illustrate the changed supply conditions, selected trends and market developments are summarized, including trends in excess deliverability, changes in reserves, the regional distribution of cumulative production, the pace of tieing-in of previously discovered pools for production, the expansion in deliverability from gas storage reservoirs, and recent increases in drilling activity. On the basis of analyses and observations, it is concluded that estimated productive capacity is likely to exceed pipeline capacity on a peak-day basis by a narrow margin over 1993-96. Increasing deliverability from gas storage reservoirs located in the producing provinces is an important factor in handling peak day requirements. From time to time, high demand due to extreme weather conditions could result in pronounced tightness and price fluctuations similar to those seen in winter 1992/93. A strong economic recovery could also result in market tightness, depending on the speed and size of supply response. The growing estimates of resource potential in the western Canada sedimentary basin provide an encouraging indication of the availability of future supply. 29 figs., 3 tabs

  16. Short-Term Load Forecast in Electric Energy System in Bulgaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Asenova

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available As the accuracy of the electricity load forecast is crucial in providing better cost effective risk management plans, this paper proposes a Short Term Electricity Load Forecast (STLF model with high forecasting accuracy. Two kind of neural networks, Multilayer Perceptron network model and Radial Basis Function network model, are presented and compared using the mean absolute percentage error. The data used in the models are electricity load historical data. Even though the very good performance of the used model for the load data, weather parameters, especially the temperature, take important part for the energy predicting which is taken into account in this paper. A comparative evaluation between a traditional statistical method and artificial neural networks is presented.

  17. Short-term alteration of nitrogen supply prior to harvest affects quality in hydroponic-cultivated spinach (Spinacia oleracea).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Xian Yong; Liu, Xiao Xia; Zhang, Ying Peng; Zhou, Yuan Qing; Hu, Yan; Chen, Qiu Hui; Zhang, Yong Song; Jin, Chong Wei

    2014-03-30

    Quality-associated problems, such as excessive in planta accumulation of oxalate, often arise in soillessly cultivated spinach (Spinacia oleracea). Maintaining a higher level of ammonium (NH₄⁺) compared to nitrate (NO₃⁻) during the growth period can effectively decrease the oxalate content in hydroponically cultivated vegetables. However, long-term exposure to high concentrations of NH₄⁺ induces toxicity in plants, and thus decreases the biomass production. Short-term application of NH₄⁺ before harvesting in soilless cultivation may provide an alternative strategy to decrease oxalate accumulation in spinach, and minimise the yield reduction caused by NH₄⁺ toxicity. The plants were pre-cultured in 8 mmol L⁻¹ NO₃⁻ nutrient solution. Next, 6 days before harvest, the plants were transferred to a nutrient solution containing 4 mmol L⁻¹ NO₃⁻ and 4 mmol L⁻¹ NH₄⁺. This new mix clearly reduced oxalate accumulation, increased levels of several antioxidant compounds, and enhanced antioxidant capacity in the edible parts of spinach plants, but it did not affect biomass production. However, when the 8 mmol L⁻¹ NO₃⁻ was shifted to either nitrogen-free, 4 mmol L⁻¹ NH₄⁺ or 8 mmol L⁻¹ NH₄⁺ treatments, although some of the quality indexes were improved, yields were significantly reduced. Short-term alteration of nitrogen supply prior to harvest significantly affects quality and biomass of spinach plants, and we strongly recommend to simultaneously use NO₃⁻ and NH₄⁺ in hydroponic cultivation, which improves vegetable quality without decreasing biomass production. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

  18. Country profiles: Lithuania [Analysis of energy supply options and security of energy supply in the Baltic States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Lithuania is a very dependent country in terms of energy resources. In 2000 only about 13.8% of the primary energy requirement was covered by domestic resources. The remaining primary fuel requirement is imported from neighbouring countries, mainly from Russia - all crude oil, natural gas and nuclear fuel are imported from this country. There is a concern about the political and economic consequences of this dependence. There is a good interconnection with neighbouring countries for both electrical grid and gas pipelines. The supply of crude oil is also available via pipeline from Russia and two existing oil terminals from other countries, including orimulsion from Venezuela. Coal can be supplied by railway from both Russia and Poland

  19. Security of Energy Supply - Indicators for Measuring Vulnerability and Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinrich, C.

    2010-01-01

    In an era of increasing globalization, secure and affordable energy supplies are an essential requirement for economies to work, much less develop and grow in the long term. The present study, Energy security of supply - indicators for measuring vulnerability and risk, develops a broad methodical assessment concept to raise awareness among policy makers and the public regarding the vulnerability of energy supplies to potential energy crises. It explores the different aspects of vulnerability, from the primary energy level to energy infrastructure (storage, networks, power plant parks) to the efficiency and cost of energy consumption for end users. The individual characteristics of the formal concept were quantitatively evaluated for several OECD regions (Germany, UK, Sweden, Poland, Italy, France and the US) using a comprehensive empirical database and reduced to a single indicator for assessing energy supply vulnerability. Part of the database comprises historical observations for the period between 1978 and 2007.(author).

  20. Energy supplies yesterday, today, and tomorrow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knizia, K

    1987-08-20

    The article is based on a paper read in May 1987 on the following subjects: Trends on the German energy market; the risk of dependence on imported oil; coal and nuclear power; the energy situation worldwide, in Western Europe, and in the Third World; the increasing importance of electric power generation; towards a power-plus-hydrogen economy. According to the author, only coal and nuclear power combined will be able to assure energy supply on a long-term basis and to make Germany independent of the unstable world energy market. (MOS).

  1. Law for Accelerated Network Expansion (NABEG) / Law on the Expansion of Energy Supply Lines (EnLAG) / Energy Economy Law (EnWG). Commentary on laws concerning the construction of energy supply lines.; NABEG/EnLAG/EnWG. Kommentar zum Recht des Energieleitungsbaus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinbach, Armin (ed.) [Bundeswirtschaftsministerium, Berlin (Germany)

    2013-09-01

    The legislative package which launched the energy turnaround in 2011 has brought with it a fundamental reform of licensing regulations for energy supply lines. The new legal framework brought about by the Law for Accelerated Network Expansion (NABEG) and the amendment to the Energy Economy Law (EnWG) impact on the entire planning and licensing process, starting from demand planning for new supply lines and ending with planning approval for specific supply line projects. The instrument of special federal planning has taken the place of regional impact assessments. Moreover a number of procedural innovations have been introduced, notably in the area of public participation. Beside being charged with regulatory tasks the Federal Network Agency will in future also be the authority responsible for the planning and licensing of the electricity motorways. In short: With this reform the legislature has ventured on untrodden ground both in institutional terms and with respect to substantive law. The new regulations confront all involved - network operators, public authorities, legal consultants and others - with the challenge of applying them in practice. The present book is intended to provide practical orientation in interpreting and applying this new body of regulations.

  2. Part I. Alternative fuel-cycle and deployment strategies: their influence on long-term energy supply and resource usage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Till, C.E.; Chang, Y.I.; Rudolph, R.R.

    1980-01-01

    This report examines the implications of alternative fast breeder fuel cycles and deployment strategies on long-term energy supply and uranium resource utilization. An international-aggregate treatment for nuclear energy demand and resource base assumptions was adopted where specific assumptions were necessary for system analyses, but the primary emphasis was placed on understanding the general relationships between energy demand, uranium resource and breeder deployment option. The fast breeder deployment options studied include the reference Pu/U cycle as well as alternative cycles with varying degrees of thorium utilization

  3. Short-term indicators. Intensities as a proxy for savings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boonekamp, P.G.M.; Gerdes, J. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Faberi, S. [Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems ISIS, Rome (Italy)

    2013-12-15

    The ODYSSEE database on energy efficiency indicators (www.odyssee-indicators.org) has been set up to enable the monitoring and evaluation of realised energy efficiency improvements and related energy savings. The database covers the 27 EU countries as well as Norway and Croatia and data are available from 1990 on. This work contributes to the growing need for quantitative monitoring and evaluation of the impacts of energy policies and measures, both at the EU and national level, e.g. due to the Energy Services Directive and the proposed Energy Efficiency Directive. Because the underlying data become available only after some time, the savings figures are not always timely available. This is especially true for the ODEX efficiency indices per sector that rely on a number of indicators. Therefore, there is a need for so-called short-term indicators that become available shortly after the year has passed for which data are needed. The short term indicators do not replace the savings indicators but function as a proxy for the savings in the most recent year. This proxy value is faster available, but will be less accurate than the saving indicators themselves. The short term indicators have to be checked regularly with the ODEX indicators in order to see whether they can function still as a proxy.

  4. Retiring the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, S. Kirk

    2010-01-01

    The author argues that the aggregate demand/aggregate supply (AD/AS) model is significantly improved--although certainly not perfected--by trimming it of the short-run aggregate supply (SRAS) curve. Problems with the SRAS curve are shown first for the AD/AS model that casts the AD curve as identifying the equilibrium level of output associated…

  5. Waste Biomass Based Energy Supply Chain Network Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hatice Güneş Yıldız

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Reducing dependence on fossil fuels, alleviating environmental impacts and ensuring sustainable economic growth are among the most promising aspects of utilizing renewable energy resources. Biomass is a major renewable energy resource that has the potential for creating sustainable energy systems that are critical in terms of social welfare. Utilization of biomass for bioenergy production is an efficient alternative for meeting rising energy demands, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and thus alleviating climate change. A supply chain for such an energy source is crucial for assisting deliverance of a competitive end product to end-user markets. Considering the existing constraints, a mixed integer linear programming (MILP model for waste biomass based supply chain was proposed in this study for economic performance optimization. Performance of the proposed modelling approach was demonstrated with a real life application study realized in İstanbul. Moreover, sensitivity analyses were conducted which would serve as a foresight for efficient management of the supply chain as a whole

  6. Benefits for wind energy in electricity markets from using short term wind power prediction tools: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usaola, J.; Ravelo, O.; Gonzalez, G.; Soto, F.; Davila, M.C.; Diaz-Guerra, B.

    2004-01-01

    One of the characteristics of wind energy, from the grid point of view, is its non-dispatchability, i.e. generation cannot be ordered, hence integration in electrical networks may be difficult. Short-term wind power prediction-tools could make this integration easier, either by their use by the grid System Operator, or by promoting the participation of wind farms in the electricity markets and using prediction tools to make their bids in the market. In this paper, the importance of a short-term wind power-prediction tool for the participation of wind energy systems in electricity markets is studied. Simulations, according to the current Spanish market rules, have been performed to the production of different wind farms, with different degrees of accuracy in the prediction tool. It may be concluded that income from participation in electricity markets is increased using a short-term wind power prediction-tool of average accuracy. This both marginally increases income and also reduces the impact on system operation with the improved forecasts. (author)

  7. Energy (r)evolution. Towards a fully renewable energy supply in the EU 27

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teske, S. [Greenpeace International, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Zervos, A.; Lins, C.; Muth, J. [European Renewable Energy Council EREC, Brussels (Belgium); Krewitt, W.; Simon, S.; Pregger, T.; Naegler, T. [DLR, Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment, Stuttgart (Germany); Schmid, S. [DLR, Institute of Vehicle Concepts, Stuttgart (DE); Graus, W.; Blomen, E. [Ecofys, Utrecht (Netherlands); Baer, P. [Greenhouse Development Rights, EcoEquity, Assistant Professor, School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Aubrey, C. (ed.)

    2010-06-15

    Europe's energy policy is at a crossroads. Many of its power stations are nearing the end of their working lives and its infrastructure is aging. Important issues are at stake; energy security, stability of supply, growing demand, the employment of thousands and the urgent need to cut emissions and head off climate change. But an answer is within reach: energy savings and renewable energy, with zero fuel costs, zero reliance on scarce resources, and zero climate damaging emissions, is an increasingly attractive option. This study shows that investing in green energy will nudge up the cost of electricity in the short to medium term. But it will save trillions of Euros in fuel costs alone from 2030 and represents an immediate investment in jobs and energy security. It presents a revolution that will give Europe a global competitive advantage and act as a beacon to other regions looking to steer a course away from the dangerous climate change approaching from the horizon. The revolution is feasible, as calculations done by the Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment department of the German Aerospace Center show. But it is going to rely on supportive policies at European and member state level.

  8. The long-term supply/demand trend of world energy and the current oil situation in the Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okamoto, Hiroyuki

    1996-01-01

    Total world primary energy consumption excluding the FSU increased by 2.9% in 1995, which is somewhat above the 10 year average rate of 2.4%. This reflected strong economic growth in most parts of the world. The increase in demand confirmed the recovery of the link between the economic growth and consumption of primary energy, which broke down in the period of oil crises. Oil demand in the Asian Emerging Market Economies has continued to be very strong. Oil demand has doubled in a decade in this region and is now one sixth of world consumption. Malaysia was the fastest growing oil market in the world in 1995 at 15.5%. In volume terms, S. Korea grew the most in the world by 170,000 b/d, closely followed by China and India. Because of the fast growing oil demand, many energy economists expect a tight supply situation in the Asian oil market in the early 21st Century. However, recent technological developments would be able to supply crude oil appropriate for an increase in oil demand. (author)

  9. The Security of Energy Supply and the Contribution of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    What contribution can nuclear energy make to improve the security of energy supply? This study, which examines a selection of OECD member countries, qualitatively and quantitatively validates the often intuitive assumption that, as a largely domestic source of electricity with stable costs and no greenhouse gas emissions during production, nuclear energy can make a positive contribution. Following an analysis of the meaning and context of security of supply, the study uses transparent and policy-relevant indicators to show that, together with improvements in energy efficiency, nuclear energy has indeed contributed significantly to enhanced energy supply security in OECD countries over the past 40 years. Content: Foreword; Executive Summary; 1. The Security of Energy Supply and the Contribution of Nuclear Energy - Concepts and Issues: - Energy supply security: An introduction, - Why security of energy supply remains a policy issue in OECD countries, - The external dimension: import dependence, resource exhaustion and carbon policy, - The internal dimension: economic, financial and technical considerations for energy supply security - Orientations for government policies to enhance the security of energy supply, - Conclusions; 2. Indicators and Models for Measuring Security of Energy Supply Risks: - Introduction, - Different approaches towards designing the Supply/Demand Index, - A detailed review of selected security of supply indicators, - Comprehensive models for assessing the security of energy supply, - The Supply/Demand Index, - Concluding observations; 3. Evolution of the Security of Energy Supply in OECD Countries: - Time-dependent quantification of the security of energy supply, - Changes in security of supply in selected OECD countries, - Electricity generation and the security of energy supply, - The contribution of nuclear energy and energy intensity to the security of energy supply, - The geographical distribution of SSDI values, - Conclusions; 4. Public

  10. Social-economic and environmental sustainability of short supply chains: opportunities for development rural territories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mykola Babych

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper substantiates the expediency of developing short supply chains at the local level. The focus of this paper is to determine opportunities for developing rural territories in Ukraine on the basis of the development of short supply chains in terms of ensuring social, economic and environmental sustainability. It is established that such an approach provides stability of development of rural territory, in particular, it promotes: social interaction (trust, justice, solidarity and common values between consumers and producers, community development (just relationships, pride, social cohesion and community affiliation, strengthening local culture and identity, health and well-being of the population (healthy diet; access to healthy food, health improvement, which ensures social sustainability of the system; rural development and economic recovery (increase of workplaces, tourism development, increase of local incomes, development of small and medium-sized farms, achievement of economic benefits to farms (reduction of overheads, fixed margin and premium for quality, increase of competitiveness and economic viability, sustainable use resources, which ensures economic stability of the system; reducing energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions (reducing transport and storage time; using alternative technologies; maximizing manual labor; reducing the use of plastic packaging; reducing food losses; sustainability of agro-systems (promoting agro-biodiversity; using local varieties; highlighting ecological and organic production, which ensures the ecological stability of the system.

  11. A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koreneff, G.; Seppaelae, A.; Lehtonen, M.; Kekkonen, V.; Laitinen, E.; Haekli, J.; Antila, E.

    1998-01-01

    In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

  12. A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koreneff, G; Seppaelae, A; Lehtonen, M; Kekkonen, V [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Laitinen, E; Haekli, J [Vaasa Univ. (Finland); Antila, E [ABB Transmit Oy (Finland)

    1998-08-01

    In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

  13. Defect production in simulated cascades: Cascade quenching and short-term annealing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinisch, H.L.

    1983-01-01

    Defect production in displacement cascades in copper has been modeled using the MARLOWE code to generate cascades and the stochastic annealing code ALSOME to simulate cascade quenching and short-term annealing of isolated cascades. Quenching is accomplished by using exaggerated values for defect mobilities and for critical reaction distances in ALSOME for a very short time. The quenched cascades are then short-term annealed with normal parameter values. The quenching parameter values were empirically determined by comparison with results of resistivity measurements. Throughout the collisional, quenching and short-term annealing phases of cascade development, the high energy cascades continue to behave as a collection of independent lower energy lobes. For recoils above about 30 keV the total number of defects and the numbers of free defects scale with the damage energy. As the energy decreases from 30 keV, defect production varies with the changing nature of the cascade configuration, resulting in more defects per unit damage energy. The simulated annealing of a low fluence of interacting cascades revealed an interstitial shielding effect on depleted zones during Stage I recovery. (orig.)

  14. Marine renewable energy sector early-stage supply chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    Marine renewable energy is an emergent sector in Canada. Although supply chain studies have been performed on the United Kingdom and the United States markets, no study has been conducted yet in Canada. The aim of this study was therefore to perform a supply chain analysis in Canada to assess the maturity, strengths, and weaknesses of the sector and determine where the opportunities lie. The study emphasises that the sector is still at the prototype stage in Canada and that the industry must learn to improve its technology and begin to take on large scale projects. Canada has several strengths in the marine renewable energy sector, mainly in terms of resources and facilities, but there are also weaknesses pertaining to technology development and experience. The study concluded that the development of the sector must be centered on a solid vision; in the near term, technological innovation is needed to reach pre-commercialization while in the long term, the sector should aim for commercial application.

  15. Closed Loop Short Rotation Woody Biomass Energy Crops

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, Michael [CRC Development, LLC, Oakland, CA (United States)

    2012-09-30

    CRC Development LLC is pursuing commercialization of shrub willow crops to evaluate and confirm estimates of yield, harvesting, transportation and renewable energy conversion costs and to provide a diverse resource in its supply portfolio.The goal of Closed Loop Short Rotation Woody Biomass Energy Crops is supply expansion in Central New York to facilitate the commercialization of willow biomass crops as part of the mix of woody biomass feedstocks for bioenergy and bioproducts. CRC Development LLC established the first commercial willow biomass plantation acreage in North America was established on the Tug Hill in the spring of 2006 and expanded in 2007. This was the first 230- acres toward the goal of 10,000 regional acres. This project replaces some 2007-drought damaged acreage and installs a total of 630-acre new planting acres in order to demonstrate to regional agricultural producers and rural land-owners the economic vitality of closed loop short rotation woody biomass energy crops when deployed commercially in order to motivate new grower entry into the market-place. The willow biomass will directly help stabilize the fuel supply for the Lyonsdale Biomass facility, which produces 19 MWe of power and exports 15,000 pph of process steam to Burrows Paper. This project will also provide feedstock to The Biorefinery in New York for the manufacture of renewable, CO2-neutral liquid transportation fuels, chemicals and polymers. This project helps end dependency on imported fossil fuels, adds to region economic and environmental vitality and contributes to national security through improved energy independence.

  16. On the optimum energy mix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujii, Yasumasa

    2011-01-01

    After the Fukushima accident occurred in March 2011, reform of Japan's basic energy plan and energy supply system was reported to be under discussion such as to reduce dependence on nuclear power. Planning of energy policy should be considered based on four evaluation indexes of 'economics'. 'environmental effects', 'stable supply of energy' and 'sustainability'. 'Stable supply of energy' should include stability of domestic energy supply infrastructure against natural disasters in addition to stable supply of overseas resources. 'Sustainability' meant long-term availability of resources. Since there did not exist an almighty energy source and energy supply system superior in terms of every above-mentioned evaluation index, it would be wise to use combining various energy sources and supply system in rational way. This combination lead to optimum energy mix, so-called 'Energy Best Mix'. The author evaluated characteristics of energy sources and energy supply system in terms of four indexes and showed best energy mix from short-, medium- and long-term perspectives. Since fossil fuel resources would deplete anyhow, it would be inevitable for human being to be dependent on non-fossil energy resources regardless of greenhouse effects. At present it would be difficult and no guarantee to establish society fully dependent on renewable energy, then it would be probable to need utilization of nuclear energy in the long term. (T. Tanaka)

  17. THE COSTS OF ENERGY SUPPLY SECURITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rogner, H.H.; Langlois, L.M.; McDonald, A.; Weisser, D.; Howells, M.

    2007-07-01

    In general, increasing a country's energy supply security does not come for free. It costs money to build up a strategic reserve, to increase supply diversity or even to accelerate energy efficiency improvements. Nor are all investments in increasing energy supply security cost effective, even if the shocks they are designed to insure against can be predicted with 100% accuracy. The first half of the paper surveys different definitions and strategies associated with the concept of energy supply security, and compares current initiatives to establish an 'assured supply of nuclear fuel' to the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) system of strategic national oil reserves. The second half of the paper presents results from several case studies of the costs and effectiveness of selected energy supply security policies. One case study examines alternative strategies for Lithuania following the scheduled closure of the Ignalina-2 nuclear reactor in 2009. The second case study examines, for countries with different energy resources and demand structures, the effectiveness of a policy to increase supply diversity by expanding renewable energy supplies. (auth)

  18. Short term wind speed forecasting in La Venta, Oaxaca, Mexico, using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadenas, Erasmo [Facultad de Ingenieria Mecanica, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de Hidalgo, Santiago Tapia No. 403, Centro, 5000, Mor., Mich. (Mexico); Rivera, Wilfrido [Centro de Ivestigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Apartado Postal 34, Temixco 62580, Morelos (Mexico)

    2009-01-15

    In this paper the short term wind speed forecasting in the region of La Venta, Oaxaca, Mexico, applying the technique of artificial neural network (ANN) to the hourly time series representative of the site is presented. The data were collected by the Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE) during 7 years through a network of measurement stations located in the place of interest. Diverse configurations of ANN were generated and compared through error measures, guaranteeing the performance and accuracy of the chosen models. First a model with three layers and seven neurons was chosen, according to the recommendations of diverse authors, nevertheless, the results were not sufficiently satisfactory so other three models were developed, consisting of three layers and six neurons, two layers and four neurons and two layers and three neurons. The simplest model of two layers, with two input neurons and one output neuron, was the best for the short term wind speed forecasting, with mean squared error and mean absolute error values of 0.0016 and 0.0399, respectively. The developed model for short term wind speed forecasting showed a very good accuracy to be used by the Electric Utility Control Centre in Oaxaca for the energy supply. (author)

  19. The electricity supply industry in England and Wales. Medium term development plan 1986-93

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-09-01

    The main objective of the Electricity Supply Industry in England and Wales is to develop and maintain electricity supplies to meet customers' needs as cheaply as possible. Over the medium term, 1986 - 1993, the goal is to reduce the real average price per kWh sold, whilst maintaining high standards of service and meeting financial obligations. The strategy set out comprises reducing controllable costs per kWh sold to 1992/3, pursuing a vigorous and selective marketing strategy so that an expected sales increase of 10% is achieved, securing a long term supply of coal at minimum cost by developing the commercial relationship with British Coal, increasing the proportion of electrical energy supplied by nuclear energy to 25% by 1992/3 and being environmentally concerned. The introduction outlines the medium term business, energy and economic environment, financial targets and price prospects. Plans to support the strategy outlined are presented. Each section sets out the objectives and the plans to achieve these. The strategy for new power stations is to develop fossil-fueled and nuclear as well as to develop alternative technologies. (UK)

  20. Audit of long-term and short-term liabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korinko M.D.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article determines the importance of long-term and short-term liabilities for the management of financial and material resources of an enterprise. It reviews the aim, objects and information generators for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations. The organizing and methodical providing of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities of an enterprise are generalized. The authors distinguish the stages of realization of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities, the aim of audit on each of the presented stages, and recommend methodical techniques. It is fixed that it is necessary to conduct the estimation of the systems of internal control and record-keeping of an enterprise by implementation of public accountant procedures for determination of volume and maintenance of selection realization. After estimating the indicated systems, a public accountant determines the methodology for realization of public accountant verification of long-term and short-term liabilities. The analytical procedures that public accountants are expedient to use for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations are determined. The authors suggest the classification of the educed defects on the results of the conducted public accountant verification of short-term and long-term obligations.

  1. Will the short-term capital crisis have long-term effects on supply and infrastructure?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theal, C.

    2003-01-01

    Natural gas supply and infrastructure is influenced by market segmentation and capital crises. The dynamics of market segmentation was highlighted and the implications for growth in the pipeline business were outlined. It was noted that the strategy for growth must mirror exploration and production trends in frontier gas and in oil sands growth. Acquisitions will likely shift from traditional regulated companies to energy infrastructure companies such as non-regulated midstream assets, natural gas liquids facilities, and liquefied natural gas infrastructure. In 2001, U.S. companies had a significant influence on the Canadian market by acquiring several Canadian assets. Several graphs were included with this presentation depicting: evolving U.S. based presence; distribution of Canadian exploration and production assets; changing composition of acquirers in 2002; increased U.S. presence from 1999; Canadian consolidation trends; the American advantage; the capital crisis; year to year activity levels by the independents; impact on industry activity levels; capital spending trends; growth spending outside the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin; Royalty Trusts as the new intermediate sub-sector; and, reshaping the landscape. A final section of the presentation described the impact on supply and infrastructure of both oil and natural gas with reference to gas storage and pipelines. In particular the economics of developing frontier gas and shipping it via the Alaska pipeline and the proposed Mackenzie Delta pipeline was discussed. 3 tabs., 28 figs

  2. Nuclear energy and the security of energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertel, E.

    2005-01-01

    Security of energy supply was a major concern for OECD governments in the early 1970. Since then, successive oil crises, volatility of hydrocarbon prices, as well as terrorist risks and natural disasters, have brought the issue back to the centre stage of policy agendas. In this paper, the author discusses the problem of energy supply security. Can security of supply be measured? What is the role of government and of nuclear energy? And what are measures for ensuring security of supply? (A.L.B.)

  3. Supply of basic food, energy, and energy-supplying foodstuffs to the population of Jordan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamdan, M R

    1979-04-27

    The supply of energy and energy-supplying foodstuffs to the population of Jordan is determined on a regional basis. Food is supplied by the agricultural sector and by imports. The influence of prices on foreign trade and consumption is analyzed. The investigation shows that most of the food supplied is of vegetable origin. The demand for animal protein is covered by 82% on an average. There are no symptoms of malnutrition among the population.

  4. EU initiative on energy infrastructures and continuity of supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heller, W.

    2004-01-01

    On December 10, 2003, the European Commission presented a comprehensive legislative package about energy infrastructure and continuity of supply. The proposals result in an agglomeration and extension of Community law provisions in the energy sector. A key role is played by the proposed directive ensuring the continuity of electricity supply and investments into infrastructure. This implies the need for the member countries henceforth to define the roles and responsibilities of grid operators and suppliers. The Energy Services Directive is to create a harmonized framework in the field of energy services and energy efficiency by providing common definitions, instruments, and methods. The legislative package has been forwarded to the European Parliament and to the Council. A first reading in the European Parliament is to be completed still in this legislative term by early May 2004. The Energy Ministers of the EU member countries were presented the package on continuity of supply on December 15, 2003. European legislation in the energy sector is keeping member countries busy, leaving them fewer and fewer possibilities for shaping policies of their own. There is danger of overregulation. (orig.)

  5. Hepatocellular Carcinoma Supplied From the Short Gastric Artery: Treatment With Chemoembolization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeon, Ung Bae, E-mail: junwb73@pnuyh.co.kr; Lee, Jun Woo, E-mail: jwlee@pusan.ac.kr; Baik, Seung Kug, E-mail: skbaik9@gmail.com; Kim, Tae Un, E-mail: kimtaeun78@hanmail.net; Choo, Ki Seok, E-mail: kschoo0618@naver.com; Kim, Kun Il, E-mail: kikim@pusan.ac.kr; Kim, Yong-Woo, E-mail: kyw47914@yahoo.co.kr; Moon, Tae-Yong, E-mail: tymn@pusan.ac.kr [Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital, Department of Radiology (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-12-15

    We report a case of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) to treat hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that was supplied by the short gastric artery. A 67-year-old woman with two nodular HCCs underwent repeated TACE. One of the nodules was supplied by the short gastric artery.

  6. Hepatocellular Carcinoma Supplied From the Short Gastric Artery: Treatment With Chemoembolization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeon, Ung Bae; Lee, Jun Woo; Baik, Seung Kug; Kim, Tae Un; Choo, Ki Seok; Kim, Kun Il; Kim, Yong-Woo; Moon, Tae-Yong

    2012-01-01

    We report a case of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) to treat hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that was supplied by the short gastric artery. A 67-year-old woman with two nodular HCCs underwent repeated TACE. One of the nodules was supplied by the short gastric artery.

  7. Energy economics and supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1977-01-01

    This section of the book, Part I, consists of four chapters (1--4). Chapter 1, Energy and the Economic Future, covers the following subjects: general economics of energy; predicting energy demand; a model of energy and the economy; and interpretations. Chapter 2, Uranium and Fossil Fuel Supplies, covers the following subjects: uranium resources; oil and gas supplies; coal resources. Chapter 3, Economics of Nuclear Power, covers information on sources of uncertainty; cost of nuclear power; cost of coal-generated electricity. Chapter 4, Alternative Energy Sources, sums information on solar energy, geothermal energy, fusion power, conservation, and transmission

  8. Biomass energy consumption in Nigeria: integrating demand and supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Momoh, S.; Soaga, J.

    1999-01-01

    The study examined the present and future consumption of biomass energy in Nigeria. Direct consumption of fire wood for domestic purposes is the predominant form of biomass energy consumption. Charcoal plays minot roles in biomass energy supply. The current and expected demand for fuelwood is projected to increase by 399% whereas supply is expected to decrease by 17.2% between 1995 and year 2010. Resource adequacy in terms of planned supply is on the decline. Forest estates which is the only planned strategy for fuelwood and wood production is projected to decline from 6.37 million ha. in 1990 to 2.4 million ha, in year 2010. The possibilities of meeting the fuelwood demand in the future is precarious. Policy measures aimed at increasing forest estates. reduction of loss of forest lands to other uses and encouragement of private forestry are recommended

  9. Sustainable energy supply - a key to global growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, J.K.

    2002-01-01

    From this overall concept of what constitutes sustainability, a range of considerations on equity of energy supply across regions, time scales over which fuel and energy source mixes and technology changes and the like, can be developed. Within the spatial dimension, considerations of sustainability that operate at the global scale need to be translated to the operations of large and small companies, national and local governments down to individual households. It is a complex mix in an increasingly complex world. But one thing is certain, the world's energy demand is going to continue to increase. This demand will be largely satisfied by fossil fuels and this use is not sustainable using current technology in the long term. Massive changes are required to turn the world around onto a more sustainable pathway that will probably take many decades even to make a significant start. The aim of this paper is to briefly explore some of the possible technological options that will guide us on the road to a more sustainable energy future. A genuinely sustainable energy system that also promotes sustainable growth with an improving standard of living for all is obviously a major challenge. At the same time the global demand for energy will continue to increase. On the global scale, the prospect of climate change imposes a major long-term constraint on the use of GHG emitting fuels and generating technologies. The long-term development of a sustainable energy system will require multiple interventions and a pluralistic approach to energy management. Ingredients within the mix are likely to require: 1. innovation in the way we currently generate and supply power 2. continued integration and greater penetration of renewables 3. greater use of embedded and distributed energy generation 4. aggressive end-use efficiency 5. development of technologies to enable continued use of fossil fuels until the transition to sustainability is completed. A combination of market and regulatory

  10. Critical Metals in Strategic Energy Technologies. Assessing Rare Metals as Supply-Chain Bottlenecks in Low-Carbon Energy Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moss, R.L.; Tzimas, E.; Kara, H.; Willis, P.; Kooroshy, J.

    2011-11-01

    Due to the rapid growth in demand for certain materials, compounded by political risks associated with the geographical concentration of the supply of them, a shortage of these materials could be a potential bottleneck to the deployment of low-carbon energy technologies. In order to assess whether such shortages could jeopardise the objectives of the EU's Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan), an improved understanding of these risks is vital. In particular, this report examines the use of metals in the six low-carbon energy technologies of SET-Plan, namely: nuclear, solar, wind, bioenergy, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and electricity grids. The study looks at the average annual demand for each metal for the deployment of the technologies in Europe between 2020 and 2030. The demand of each metal is compared to the respective global production volume in 2010. This ratio (expressed as a percentage) allows comparing the relative stress that the deployment of the six technologies in Europe is expected to create on the global supplies for these different metals. The study identifies 14 metals for which the deployment of the six technologies will require 1% or more (and in some cases, much more) of current world supply per annum between 2020 and 2030. These 14 metals, in order of decreasing demand, are tellurium, indium, tin, hafnium, silver, dysprosium, gallium, neodymium, cadmium, nickel, molybdenum, vanadium, niobium and selenium. The metals are examined further in terms of the risks of meeting the anticipated demand by analysing in detail the likelihood of rapid future global demand growth, limitations to expanding supply in the short to medium term, and the concentration of supply and political risks associated with key suppliers. The report pinpoints 5 of the 14 metals to be at high risk, namely: the rare earth metals neodymium and dysprosium, and the by-products (from the processing of other metals) indium, tellurium and gallium. The report explores a

  11. Panorama 2016 - Short-term trends in the gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecarpentier, Armelle

    2015-12-01

    In an environment marked by slowing economic growth in emerging markets and developing countries, trends in gas market fundamentals varied widely across the regions during 2015. Structural economic factors stifled growth in natural gas demand, which was unable to take up all the excess supply, leading to imbalance in the global gas market and price weakness which is expected to continue in the short and medium-term. (author)

  12. Role and potential of renewable energy and energy efficiency for global energy supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krewitt, Wolfram; Nienhaus, Kristina [German Aerospace Center e.V. (DLR), Stuttgart (Germany); Klessmann, Corinna; Capone, Carolin; Stricker, Eva [Ecofys Germany GmbH, Berlin (Germany); Graus, Wina; Hoogwijk, Monique [Ecofys Netherlands BV, Utrecht (Netherlands); Supersberger, Nikolaus; Winterfeld, Uta von; Samadi, Sascha [Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy GmbH, Wuppertal (Germany)

    2009-12-15

    The analysis of different global energy scenarios in part I of the report confirms that the exploitation of energy efficiency potentials and the use of renewable energies play a key role in reaching global CO2 reduction targets. An assessment on the basis of a broad literature research in part II shows that the technical potentials of renewable energy technologies are a multiple of today's global final energy consumption. The analysis of cost estimates for renewable electricity generation technologies and even long term cost projections across the key studies in part III demonstrates that assumptions are in reasonable agreement. In part IV it is shown that by implementing technical potentials for energy efficiency improvements in demand and supply sectors by 2050 can be limited to 48% of primary energy supply in IEA's ''Energy Technology Perspectives'' baseline scenario. It was found that a large potential for cost-effective measures exists, equivalent to around 55-60% of energy savings of all included efficiency measures (part V). The results of the analysis on behavioural changes in part VI show that behavioural dimensions are not sufficiently included in energy scenarios. Accordingly major research challenges are revealed. (orig.)

  13. Energy discharge heater power supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaskierny, W.

    1992-11-01

    The heater power supply is intended to supply capacitively stored,energy to embedded heater strips in cryo magnets. The amount of energy can be controlled by setting different charge different capacitor values. Two chassis' can be operated in series or interlocks are provided. The charge voltage, number of capacitors pulse can be monitored. There and dual channel has two discharge supplies in one chassis. This report reviews the characteristics of this power supply further

  14. Life-cycle energy impacts for adapting an urban water supply system to droughts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Ka Leung; Stokes-Draut, Jennifer R; Horvath, Arpad; Lane, Joe L; Kenway, Steven J; Lant, Paul A

    2017-12-15

    In recent years, cities in some water stressed regions have explored alternative water sources such as seawater desalination and potable water recycling in spite of concerns over increasing energy consumption. In this study, we evaluate the current and future life-cycle energy impacts of four alternative water supply strategies introduced during a decade-long drought in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. These strategies were: seawater desalination, indirect potable water recycling, network integration, and rainwater tanks. Our work highlights the energy burden of alternative water supply strategies which added approximately 24% life-cycle energy use to the existing supply system (with surface water sources) in SEQ even for a current post-drought low utilisation status. Over half of this additional life-cycle energy use was from the centralised alternative supply strategies. Rainwater tanks contributed an estimated 3% to regional water supply, but added over 10% life-cycle energy use to the existing system. In the future scenario analysis, we compare the life-cycle energy use between "Normal", "Dry", "High water demand" and "Design capacity" scenarios. In the "Normal" scenario, a long-term low utilisation of the desalination system and the water recycling system has greatly reduced the energy burden of these centralised strategies to only 13%. In contrast, higher utilisation in the unlikely "Dry" and "Design capacity" scenarios add 86% and 140% to life-cycle energy use of the existing system respectively. In the "High water demand" scenario, a 20% increase in per capita water use over 20 years "consumes" more energy than is used by the four alternative strategies in the "Normal" scenario. This research provides insight for developing more realistic long-term scenarios to evaluate and compare life-cycle energy impacts of drought-adaptation infrastructure and regional decentralised water sources. Scenario building for life-cycle assessments of water supply

  15. Forecast demand and supply of energy in the short period. Its forecast and sensitivity analysis until the 2004 fiscal year

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, Yukari; Suehiro, Shigeru; Yanagisawa, Akira; Imaeda, Toshiya; Komiyama, Ryouichi

    2004-01-01

    The object of this report is forecast demand and supply of energy in the 2003 and 2004 fiscal year, which correspond to a business recovery period. A macroeconomics model and an energy supply model are calculated by changing actual GNP, crude oil rate and the rerunning period of nuclear power plants. The calculation results are compared with the reference case. In the first chapter, forecast Japanese economy until the 2004 fiscal year is explained. In the second chapter, the results of energy demand and supply in the first chapter are investigated by the home supply and consumption of primary energy (the reference case) and each energy resources. The sensitivity analytical results of actual GNP, consumer price index, home supply of the primary energy, energy expenditure, sales account of electric power, city gas and fuel by five cases such as reference, increase and decrease of oil cost and increase and decrease of economic growth are investigated. The effects of fast rerunning period of nuclear power plant and atmosphere temperature on these above demands of energies are indicated in the third chapter. (S.Y.)

  16. Energy Demand and Supply Analysis and Outlook - Energy Forecast for 2001 and Policy Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Na, In Gang; Ryu, Ji Chul [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2000-12-01

    The energy consumption in Korea has grown at impressive rates during the last 3 decades, along with the economic growth. The global concern about the environment issue and the restructuring in Korea energy industry has an effect on the pattern and trend of energy demand in Korea. Under the situation, this research are focusing on the analysis of energy consumption and forecast of energy demand. First of all, we analyze the trends and major characteristics of energy consumption, beginning with 1970s and up to the third quarter of 2000. In the analysis of energy consumption by energy types, we also perform qualitative analysis on the trends and characteristics of each energy types, including institutional analysis. In model section, we start with the brief description of synopsis and outline the survey on empirical models for energy demand. The econometric model used in KEEI's short-term energy forecast is outlined, followed by the result of estimations. The 2001 energy demand forecast is predicted in detail by sectors and energy types. In the year 2001, weak demand is projected to continue through the First Half, and pick up its pace of growth only in the Second Half. Projected total demand is 201.3 million TOE or 4.4% growth. In the last section, the major policy issues are summarized in three sub-sections: the restructuring in energy industry, the security of energy demand and supply, international energy cooperation including south-north energy cooperation. (author). 86 refs., 43 figs., 73 tabs.

  17. Energy management of a university campus utilizing short-term load forecasting with an artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palchak, David

    Electrical load forecasting is a tool that has been utilized by distribution designers and operators as a means for resource planning and generation dispatch. The techniques employed in these predictions are proving useful in the growing market of consumer, or end-user, participation in electrical energy consumption. These predictions are based on exogenous variables, such as weather, and time variables, such as day of week and time of day as well as prior energy consumption patterns. The participation of the end-user is a cornerstone of the Smart Grid initiative presented in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and is being made possible by the emergence of enabling technologies such as advanced metering infrastructure. The optimal application of the data provided by an advanced metering infrastructure is the primary motivation for the work done in this thesis. The methodology for using this data in an energy management scheme that utilizes a short-term load forecast is presented. The objective of this research is to quantify opportunities for a range of energy management and operation cost savings of a university campus through the use of a forecasted daily electrical load profile. The proposed algorithm for short-term load forecasting is optimized for Colorado State University's main campus, and utilizes an artificial neural network that accepts weather and time variables as inputs. The performance of the predicted daily electrical load is evaluated using a number of error measurements that seek to quantify the best application of the forecast. The energy management presented utilizes historical electrical load data from the local service provider to optimize the time of day that electrical loads are being managed. Finally, the utilization of forecasts in the presented energy management scenario is evaluated based on cost and energy savings.

  18. RECAP, Replacement Energy Cost for Short-Term Reactor Plant Shut-Down

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    VanKuiken, J.C.; Daun, C.J.; Jusko, M.J.

    1995-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: RECAP (Replacement Energy Cost Analysis Package) determines the replacement energy costs associated with short-term shutdowns or de-ratings of one or more nuclear reactors. Replacement energy cost refers to the change in generating-system production cost that results from shutting down a reactor. The cost calculations are based on the seasonal, unit-specific cost estimates for 1988-1991 for all 117 nuclear electricity-generating units in the U.S. RECAP is menu-driven, allowing the user to define specific case studies in terms of parameters such as the units to be included, the length and timing of the shutdown or de-rating period, the unit capacity factors, and the reference year for reporting cost results. In addition to simultaneous shutdown cases, more complicated situations, such as overlapping shutdown periods or shutdowns that occur in different years, can be examined through use of a present-worth calculation option. 2 - Method of solution: The user selects a set of units for analysis, defines a shutdown (or de-rating) period, and specifies any planned maintenance outages, delays in unit start-ups, or changes in default capacity factors. The program then determines which seasonal cost numbers to apply, estimates total and daily costs, and makes the appropriate adjustments for multiple outages if they are encountered. The change in production cost is determined from the difference between the total variable costs (variable fuel cost, variable operation and maintenance cost, and purchased energy cost) when the reactor is available for generation and when it is not. Changes in reference-year dollars are based on gross national product (GNP) price deflators or on optional use inputs. Once RECAP has completed the initial cost estimates for a case study (or series of case studies), present-worth analysis can be conducted using different reference-year dollars and discount rates, as specified by the user. The program uses

  19. Synergies between energy supply networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Jianzhnog; Yan, Jinyue; Desideri, Umberto

    2017-01-01

    Energy system integration uses a whole-system approach to optimize the synergies between energy supply networks to facilitate and coordinate the grid integration of distributed energy resources while enabling the synergies and conflicts between the local distribution networks and the national lev...... and integration of local renewables including solar energy wind geothermal waste heat and biomass is presented.......Energy system integration uses a whole-system approach to optimize the synergies between energy supply networks to facilitate and coordinate the grid integration of distributed energy resources while enabling the synergies and conflicts between the local distribution networks and the national level...... objectives to be understood and optimally coordinated. The latest research on the network coupling technologies analysis of synergies between energy supply networks and optimal use of synergies in network operation is discussed. A diagram on the possible interactions between different energy networks...

  20. Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazighi, Ahmed El Hachemi

    2004-01-01

    Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long-term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries; price risk, through the high volatility for gas, induces an increase in options prices; there is no evidence to suggest that money-lenders' appetite for financing gas infrastructure projects will continue in a short-term trading system. This would be a threat to consumers' security of supply. (Author)

  1. Alternative energy supply strategies for Pakistan and their economic implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jalal, A.I.; Khan, A.M.; Khan, S.B.

    1984-01-01

    Pakistan is beset with serious energy supply difficulties arising from a fast growing demand for commercial energy, a poor energy resource base and the high cost of imported energy. The commercial energy requirements are expected to rise from 22.4 million tonnes of coal equivalent (tce) in 1980 to 80 million tce by the year 2000 and to about 200 million tce by 2020, while the country's proven fossil-fuel reserves are only 440 million tce and cannot cope with the demand for long. Pakistan is already dependent on imported energy for 90% of its oil requirements or 30% of the total commercial energy, and is spending 5.5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on energy imports. The paper analyses the economic implications of a few alternative energy supply strategies. These strategies correspond to two different rates of petroleum exploration and development activity, a high and a low average size of new petroleum finds, and the large-scale use of nuclear power starting in 1990 or after the year 2000. It is found that in the most favourable case (high level of petroleum drilling activity with a high success rate and nuclear power use starting in 1990) Pakistan would be able to achieve self-sufficiency in oil by 2010 and in the total energy supply shortly after 2020. The energy sector's investment requirement will, however, increase gradually from 3% of GDP now to almost 6% of GDP by 2020. (author)

  2. Renewables in Global Energy Supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    Renewable energies are essential contributors to the energy supply portfolio as they contribute to world energy supply security, reducing dependency on fossil fuel resources, and provide opportunities for mitigating greenhouse gases. Differences in definition and lack of adequate data complicated the discussion between participants on these key issues. The International Energy Agency believes that this fact sheet can be of use to all to facilitate the debate on the past, current and future place and role of renewables in total energy supply. Our goal is to present as objectively as possible the main elements of the current renewables energy situation. The definitions and coverage of national statistics vary between countries and organisations. In this fact sheet, the renewables definition includes combustible renewables and waste (CRW), hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, tide and wave energy.

  3. Food and water supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popov, I. G.

    1975-01-01

    Supplying astronauts with adequate food and water on short and long-term space flights is discussed based on experiences gained in space flight. Food consumption, energy requirements, and suitability of the foodstuffs for space flight are among the factors considered. Physicochemical and biological methods of food production and regeneration of water from astronaut metabolic wastes, as well as wastes produced in a closed ecological system, or as a result of technical processes taking place in various spacecraft systems are suggested for long-term space flights.

  4. Short-term overeating results in incomplete energy intake compensation regardless of energy density or macronutrient composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apolzan, John W; Bray, George A; Hamilton, Marc T; Zderic, Theodore W; Han, Hongmei; Champagne, Catherine M; Shepard, Desti; Martin, Corby K

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate the effects of overeating (140% of energy requirements) a high-fat low-energy density diet (HF/LED, 1.05 kcal/g), high-fat high-energy density diet (HF/HED, 1.60 kcal/g), and high-carbohydrate (HC) LED (1.05 kcal/g) for 2-days on subsequent 4-day energy intake (EI), activity levels, appetite, and mood. Using a randomized cross-over design, energy expenditure and EI were standardized during overeating. In 20 adults with a mean ± SD BMI of 30.7 ± 4.6 kg/m(2) , EI was not suppressed until the second day after overeating and accounted for ∼30% of the excess EI. Reductions in EI did not differ among the three diets or across days. Overeating had no effect on subsequent energy expenditure but steps/day decreased after the HC/LED and HF/HED. Sleep time was increased after the HF/HED compared to both LEDs. After overeating a HF/HED vs. HF/LED, carbohydrate cravings, hunger, prospective food consumption, and sadness increased and satisfaction, relaxation, and tranquility decreased. Diet type, time, or their interaction had no impact on compensation over 4 days. No adaptive thermogenesis was observed. The HF/HED vs. HF/LED had detrimental effects on food cravings, appetite, and mood. These results suggest short-term overeating is associated with incomplete compensation. Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.

  5. Nuclear power and sustainable energy supply for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilden, W.

    2006-01-01

    Developing and promoting a farsighted energy policy is a key aspect in achieving sustainable development in the European Union. Factors to be coped with in this context are the Union's increasing dependence on energy imports, and the threats facing the climate. Moreover, it is imperative that the Lisbon strategy be pursued, according to which Europe is to be made the world's most dynamic knowledge-based economic region by 2010. As early as in 2000, the EU Commission published its Green Paper, ''Towards a European Strategy of Continuity in Power Supply.'' Continuity of supply, in this context, not only stands for maximized self-sufficiency or minimized dependencies. What is at stake is a reduction of the risks stemming from dependence on imports and from changes in the environment. This goal can be achieved through a balanced and diverse structure both of energy resources and of the geographic origins of fuels. The right energy mix is decisive. The European Commission feels that nuclear power can make an important contribution towards sustainable energy supply in Europe. Nuclear power should keep its place in the European energy mix. One important aspect in this regard is improved public acceptance through communication, transparency, and confidence building. High safety standards and a credible approach to the safe long-term management of radioactive waste are major components of this sustainable energy source. (orig.)

  6. Long-term contracts vs. short-term trade of natural gas - a European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhoff, Karsten; Hirschhausen, Christian von

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyses the economics of long-term gas contracts under changing institutional conditions, mainly gas sector liberalisation. The paper is motivated by the increasingly tense debate in continental Europe, UK and the US on the security of long-term gas supply. We discuss the main issues regarding long-term contracts, i.e. the changing role of the flexibility clause, the effect of abandoning the destination clause, and the strategic behaviour of producers between long-term sales and spot-sales. The literature suggests consumers and producers benefit from risk hedging through long-term contracts. Furthermore long-term contracts may reduce exercise of market power. Our analysis adds an additional benefit if the long-run demand elasticity is significantly lower than the short-run elasticity, both strategic producers and consumers benefit from lower prices and larger market volume. Some policy implications of the findings are also discussed. (Author)

  7. Agro-energy supply chain planning: a procedure to evaluate economic, energy and environmental sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrizio Ginaldi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The increasing demand for energy and expected shortage in the medium term, solicit innovative energy strategies to fulfill the increasing gap between demand-supply. For this purpose it is important to evaluate the potential supply of the energy crops and finding the areas of EU where it is most convenient. This paper proposes an agro-energy supply chain approach to planning the biofuel supply chain at a regional level. The proposed methodology is the result of an interdisciplinary team work and is aimed to evaluate the potential supply of land for the energy production and the efficiency of the processing plants considering simultaneously economic, energy and environmental targets. The crop simulation, on the basis of this approach, takes into account environmental and agricultural variables (soil, climate, crop, agronomic technique that affect yields, energy and economic costs of the agricultural phase. The use of the Dijkstra’s algorithm allows minimizing the biomass transport path from farm to collecting points and the processing plant, to reduce both the transport cost and the energy consumption. Finally, a global sustainability index (ACSI, Agro-energy Chain Sustainability Index is computed combining economic, energy and environmental aspects to evaluate the sustainability of the Agroenergy supply chain (AESC on the territory. The empirical part consists in a pilot study applied to the whole plain of Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG a region situated in the North-Eastern part of Italy covering about 161,300 ha. The simulation has been applied to the maize cultivation using three different technologies (different levels of irrigation and nitrogen fertilization: low, medium and high input. The higher input technologies allow to achieve higher crop yields, but affect negatively both the economic and energy balances. Low input levels provides, on the average, the most favourable energy and economic balances. ACSI indicates that low inputs levels

  8. Security of energy supply: Account of the security of supply in Denmark; Energiforsyningssikkerhed. Redegoerelse om forsyningssikkerheden i Danmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-02-15

    A secure and stable energy supply is a prerequisite for a society like the Danish. Through many years of active energy policy we in Denmark have developed an efficient energy system with a very high security of supply. In coming decades it is necessary to implement a major transformation of our energy supplies to more renewable energy and phase out fossil fuels. The Government's vision is that we must have a Denmark that is independent of fossil fuels. With such a fundamental transformation of our energy supply and energy system it becomes a challenge to maintain the high security of supply, as we know it today. Conversely, it is not a long term solution to continue to allow society to be dependent on fossil fuels. And it is against this background, the Danish Minister for Climate and Energy submit this account on security of energy supplies in Denmark. The account shows that we in Denmark have a high security of supply. There is still access to sufficient energy resources, we have a well-functioning infrastructure, and we have good access to the exchange of energy within the EU and other countries. This places Denmark in a good situation. Today, Denmark has a significant import of especially petroleum and coal and export of petroleum and gas. The future declining production of oil and gas in the North Sea means an increasing need for imported fuels from fewer and fewer countries and regions, and at the same time there will be an increased international demand for the same fuels. This brings Denmark in the same situation as the other EU countries. Thus we have the basis for reducing consumption of fossil fuels and instead accommodate increasing amounts of renewable energy in our energy supply, but it requires a further development of the system to be possible to store energy and manage energy consumption. It will be necessary if the growing parts of our energy must come from fluctuating sources like wind and solar energy. Efficiency in energy supply has

  9. Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Divina

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The ability to predict short-term electric energy demand would provide several benefits, both at the economic and environmental level. For example, it would allow for an efficient use of resources in order to face the actual demand, reducing the costs associated to the production as well as the emission of CO 2 . To this aim, in this paper we propose a strategy based on ensemble learning in order to tackle the short-term load forecasting problem. In particular, our approach is based on a stacking ensemble learning scheme, where the predictions produced by three base learning methods are used by a top level method in order to produce final predictions. We tested the proposed scheme on a dataset reporting the energy consumption in Spain over more than nine years. The obtained experimental results show that an approach for short-term electricity consumption forecasting based on ensemble learning can help in combining predictions produced by weaker learning methods in order to obtain superior results. In particular, the system produces a lower error with respect to the existing state-of-the art techniques used on the same dataset. More importantly, this case study has shown that using an ensemble scheme can achieve very accurate predictions, and thus that it is a suitable approach for addressing the short-term load forecasting problem.

  10. Wind energy in a competitive electricity supply environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strbac, G; Jenkins, N [Manchester Centre for Electrical Energy, Manchester (United Kingdom)

    1996-12-31

    In the UK, there has been an increasing interest in the commercial aspects of the impact of wind energy on transmission and distribution networks. In a competitive electricity supply environment, mechanisms for pricing network services are considered to be the main vehicle for evaluating that impact. This article reviews the major pricing strategies based on embedded costs, short and long run marginal costing theory as well as time-of-use pricing, and comments on the influence of each particular strategy on the calculated value of wind energy. Also, prospective tools for evaluating savings in capital and operating network costs due to wind generation, are identified. (author)

  11. Wind energy in a competitive electricity supply environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strbac, G.; Jenkins, N. [Manchester Centre for Electrical Energy, Manchester (United Kingdom)

    1995-12-31

    In the UK, there has been an increasing interest in the commercial aspects of the impact of wind energy on transmission and distribution networks. In a competitive electricity supply environment, mechanisms for pricing network services are considered to be the main vehicle for evaluating that impact. This article reviews the major pricing strategies based on embedded costs, short and long run marginal costing theory as well as time-of-use pricing, and comments on the influence of each particular strategy on the calculated value of wind energy. Also, prospective tools for evaluating savings in capital and operating network costs due to wind generation, are identified. (author)

  12. Interaction between supply and end-use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skytte, K.; Noergaard, P.; Togeby, M.

    2005-01-01

    In a future power system with a high proportion of distributed and intermittent generation, it will be difficult and costly to ensure short-term security of supply if demand is unable to react to fluctuations on the supply side. At present, most power consumers in the EU, with the exception of the largest consumers such as energy intensive industries, buy their power on fixed tariffs. Fixed tariffs provide no incentives for consumers to alter their patterns of power consumption. This calls for more interaction between the supply and demand sides, which in turn would allow better matching of demand to intermittent supply. The development of cheap and reliable electronic communication technologies has made this a realistic option, so we are left with the general question of how the demand side can become more active in the future power market. Liberalisation of the wholesale power markets has introduced market-based pricing for the marginal electricity supply. Prices are set hourly, or even more frequently, by reference to the balance between the expected demand and supply at the time. If the expected demand exceeds supply, prices increase until demand falls or more generation comes on line. If supply exceeds demand, prices fall. In this way, market prices are used to determine the balance level between generation and consumption. In liquid markets, the power price is a reliable indicator of the state of the electricity system. Price fluctuations reveal the cost of marginal production capacity; very high prices indicate that capacity is limited compared with demand. At present, it is mostly the generation side that adjust their supply in order to create balance between supply and expected demand. If demand, as well as supply, could respond to price signals from the market, the flexibility of the energy system would increase. This would make it easier to increase the proportion of intermittent renewable energy sources in the system. Demand response (DR) is the term

  13. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations

    KAUST Repository

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2012-04-01

    The emphasis on renewable energy and concerns about the environment have led to large-scale wind energy penetration worldwide. However, there are also significant challenges associated with the use of wind energy due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High-quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This article begins with an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends. It then reviews some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series approaches and more advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular, the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented. © 2012 The Authors. International Statistical Review © 2012 International Statistical Institute.

  14. Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

    Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

  15. Economics of solar energy: Short term costing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klee, H.

    The solar economics based on life cycle costs are refuted as both imaginary and irrelevant. It is argued that predicting rates of inflation and fuel escalation, expected life, maintenance costs, and legislation over the next ten to twenty years is pure guesswork. Furthermore, given the high mobility level of the U.S. population, the average consumer is skeptical of long run arguments which will pay returns only to the next owners. In the short term cost analysis, the house is sold prior to the end of the expected life of the system. The cash flow of the seller and buyer are considered. All the relevant factors, including the federal tax credit and the added value of the house because of the solar system are included.

  16. Short term solar radiation forecasting: Island versus continental sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boland, John; David, Mathieu; Lauret, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    Due its intermittency, the large-scale integration of solar energy into electricity grids is an issue and more specifically in an insular context. Thus, forecasting the output of solar energy is a key feature to efficiently manage the supply-demand balance. In this paper, three short term forecasting procedures are applied to island locations in order to see how they perform in situations that are potentially more volatile than continental locations. Two continental locations, one coastal and one inland are chosen for comparison. At the two time scales studied, ten minute and hourly, the island locations prove to be more difficult to forecast, as shown by larger forecast errors. It is found that the three methods, one purely statistical combining Fourier series plus linear ARMA models, one combining clear sky index models plus neural net models, and a third using a clear sky index plus ARMA, give similar forecasting results. It is also suggested that there is great potential of merging modelling approaches on different horizons. - Highlights: • Solar energy forecasting is more difficult for insular than continental sites. • Fourier series plus linear ARMA models are one forecasting method tested. • Clear sky index models plus neural net models are also tested. • Clear sky index models plus linear ARMA is also an option. • All three approaches have similar skill.

  17. Very Short-term Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation - with Application to Solar Energy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Golestaneh, Faranak; Pinson, Pierre; Gooi, Hoay Beng

    2016-01-01

    Due to the inherent uncertainty involved in renewable energy forecasting, uncertainty quantification is a key input to maintain acceptable levels of reliability and profitability in power system operation. A proposal is formulated and evaluated here for the case of solar power generation, when only...... approach to generate very short-term predictive densities, i.e., for lead times between a few minutes to one hour ahead, with fast frequency updates. We rely on an Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) as a fast regression model, trained in varied ways to obtain both point and quantile forecasts of solar power...... generation. Four probabilistic methods are implemented as benchmarks. Rival approaches are evaluated based on a number of test cases for two solar power generation sites in different climatic regions, allowing us to show that our approach results in generation of skilful and reliable probabilistic forecasts...

  18. SUSTAINABILITY OF SHORT FOOD SUPPLY CHAINS: ANALYSIS OF RAW MATERIAL SUPPLY IN MILAN PUBLIC SCHOOL CATERING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. D’Anna

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The demand of short food supply chains is becoming more pressing by consumers, especially in the largest school catering. The implementation of the short chain in a large catering company of Milan, is described in this practical contribution. Several aspects of short food chains sustainability: legal, commercial and economic sustainability, hygienic and gastronomic sustainability, are discussed.

  19. A study of the role played by renewable energies in China's sustainable energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xiliang; Molin, Huo; Ruoshui, Wang; Martinot, Eric

    2010-01-01

    This paper first provides an overview of the context of renewable energy development in China, including the country's recent renewable energy legislation. Further, it summarizes the current status of renewable energy development and the role it plays in the national energy supply. Next it introduces the national indicative targets for renewable energies in 2010 and 2020, and conducts a long term scenario of the role of renewable energies in China's energy system transition till 2050. It discusses the main risks involved in China's renewable energy development, and proposes some policy measures for risk management. (author)

  20. An energy supply and demand model for South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silberberg, R.B.

    1981-08-01

    The topic of this thesis is the development of a model of energy supply and demand in South Africa to project energy flows up to the year 2005 and also to assess the implications of policy actions. In this thesis, a method of determining energy flows taking generally accepted economic and technological factors into account is developed. Also, various situations are tested, in order to determine the following: 1) Likely energy flows up to 2005, as well as possible upper and lower bounds. 2) Significant final demand sectors, in terms of energy requirements. 3) The effects of changes in supply and demand sector technology. 4) The implications of policy options such as enengy independence. Owing to the different characteristics of the energy supply and demand sectors, the following techniques were used: 1) Energy demand sectors. 2) Energy supply sectors. 3) Supply/demand equilibration 4) Output. Through successive runs of the model, the policy-maker is able to indentify likely values of energy flows, as well as upper and lower boundaries given the described set of assumptions. The following statements are made as conclusions: 1) The growth rate of domectic coal demand is likely to be 5,5 % per annum up to 2005. 2) The Iron and Steel industry and the Mining industry have the greatest potential effect on coal demand. 3) The coal growth rate stated above implies certain improvements in coal to liquid fuel and electricity conversion. 4) The coal demands of oil energy independence are listed, highlighting the fact that major coal exports and energy independence may be mutually exclusive. Other conclusions regarding capital requirements, oil imports and coking coal utilization are described. The model permits a consistent and inteqrated forecast of national energy flows to be made, providing the policymaker with projections that include the effects of uncertainty with regard to future technologies and economic output. This feature is crucial for policy formulation

  1. A cost optimization model for 100% renewable residential energy supply systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milan, Christian; Bojesen, Carsten; Nielsen, Mads Pagh

    2012-01-01

    The concept of net zero energy buildings (Net ZEB) has received increased attention throughout the last years. A well adapted and optimized design of the energy supply system is crucial for the performance of these buildings. To achieve this, a holistic approach is needed which accounts for the i......The concept of net zero energy buildings (Net ZEB) has received increased attention throughout the last years. A well adapted and optimized design of the energy supply system is crucial for the performance of these buildings. To achieve this, a holistic approach is needed which accounts......'s involving on-site production of heat and electricity in combination with electricity exchanged with the public grid. The model is based on linear programming and determines the optimal capacities for each relevant supply technology in terms of the overall system costs. It has been successfully applied...

  2. Energy trading and pricing in microgrids with uncertain energy supply

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Kai; Hu, Shubing; Yang, Jie

    2017-01-01

    This paper studies an energy trading and pricing problem for microgrids with uncertain energy supply. The energy provider with the renewable energy (RE) generation (wind power) determines the energy purchase from the electricity markets and the pricing strategy for consumers to maximize its profi....... In particular, the uncertainty of the energy supply from the energy provider is considered. Simulation results show that the energy provider can obtain more profit using the proposed decision-making scheme.......This paper studies an energy trading and pricing problem for microgrids with uncertain energy supply. The energy provider with the renewable energy (RE) generation (wind power) determines the energy purchase from the electricity markets and the pricing strategy for consumers to maximize its profit...

  3. Short term decisions for long term problems - The effect of foresight on model based energy systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppo, Ilkka; Strubegger, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the development and demonstration of a limited foresight energy system model. The presented model is implemented as an extension to a large, linear optimization model, MESSAGE. The motivation behind changing the model is to provide an alternative decision framework, where information for the full time frame is not available immediately and sequential decision making under incomplete information is implied. While the traditional optimization framework provides the globally optimal decisions for the modeled problem, the framework presented here may offer a better description of the decision environment, under which decision makers must operate. We further modify the model to accommodate flexible dynamic constraints, which give an option to implement investments faster, albeit with a higher cost. Finally, the operation of the model is demonstrated using a moving window of foresight, with which decisions are taken for the next 30 years, but can be reconsidered later, when more information becomes available. We find that the results demonstrate some of the pitfalls of short term planning, e.g. lagging investments during earlier periods lead to higher requirements later during the century. Furthermore, the energy system remains more reliant on fossil based energy carriers, leading to higher greenhouse gas emissions.

  4. Long-term stability analysis and effect evaluation of energy supply and demand in asia and pacific regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, B.R. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-06-01

    The competition in the supply of energy in Northeast Asian countries including Korea is forecasted to be intensively unfolded because of the soaring energy consumption the region. It is because the consumption of coal in Asia will be curtailed due to heightened global attention to environment, the import of Middle Eastern crude oil will be largely increasing since crude oil production in China and Indonesia is experiencing a slow-down. Therefore, close international cooperation is requested for the smooth supply of crude oil and natural gas to back up the economic growth. This study checked the energy supply and demand status in the Asian region that is changing since the 1990s, and analyzed the pressure factors in the energy supply sector. It needs to develop the Far Eastern region of Russia intensively as the energy supply base together with the Middle Eastern oil- producing regions as the plan to alleviate the energy competition within the region and seek economic development concurrently. Since this region requires large- scale investment as an never-expedited area, multilateral cooperation including neighboring countries that need energy and international enterprises who are interested in the profitability of the business are urgently required. Therefore, it is necessary to form and operate Northeast Asia Energy Forum (NAEF) which is a centripetal point that will actually carry out the resources development of Northeast Asia. Korea who is at the centripetal point of Northeast Asian tension should actively participate and support in the formation of this organization within the region in order to utilize it as the cornerstone of national north and south unification. 41 refs., 7 figs., 53 tabs.

  5. Energy supply options for Lithuania: A detailed multi-sector integrated energy demand, supply and environmental analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-09-01

    The Technical Co-operation (TC) project Energy Supply Options for Lithuania: A Detailed Multi-Sector Integrated Energy Demand, Supply and Environmental Analysis (LIT/0/004) was implemented 2001-2002 by a national team with support from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The principal objective of the project was to conduct a comprehensive assessment of Lithuania's future energy supply options taking into consideration the early closure of the Ignalina nuclear power plant (Ignalina NPP). Lithuania, a country in transition to full membership of the European Union, has to comply with the energy acquis (Chapter 14). The 'acquis communautaire' (the body of common rights and obligations which bind all the Member States together) must be adopted by all applicant countries. Implementing the acquis requires not only adequate legislation, well functioning institutions (e.g. a regulatory body as required in the electricity and gas directives) or schedules for restructuring the energy sector but also measures to enhance energy supply security, improvement of energy networks, efficiency improvements throughout the energy system and compliance with European environmental standards. Within the overall context of the transition to EU membership, this study focuses on the future development of the electricity sector and the impacts on energy supply security and environmental performance of a closure of Ignalina NPP by 2009, a pre-condition for accession stipulated by the European Union. The project coincided with the preparation of the new National Energy Strategy for Lithuania and therefore was set up to support the strategy formulation process

  6. Long term natural gas supply in North America: prospects for mexican exports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elizalde Baltierra, A.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this work is to discuss the most important factors and uncertainties likely to affect future Mexican natural gas exports to the United States. Firstly, we study the long term natural gas supply/demand balance in North America over the period from 2000 to 2020. Secondly, we analyze the main driving forces determining future natural gas supply and demand in Mexico, which also allows us to discuss the prospects for Mexican gas exports. Finally, our analysis suggests that: in the short and medium term (2000-2010), Mexico will probably continue to increase imports of USA gas in order to satisfy increasing demand and will probably not export large volumes of gas to the USA; in the long term (2020-2020), Mexico could resume exports to the USA in sizeable quantities. Two main conditions appear necessary to resume exports: Premex's budgetary constraints should be relaxed and/or new foreign investment should be able to participate in the Mexican upstream oil and gas sector. (author)

  7. Franchise agreements as seen by the local authority. Terms of contract and termination of contract used as means for achieving environmentally and socially compatible energy supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apfelstedt, G.

    1988-01-01

    The fact that community energy demands are presently covered by various suppliers calls for solutions concerning responsible negotiations meeting the requirements of present legal structures. Community members, industry, and public utilities should have a say in the distribution of electric power and gas supplies. The agreements made decide on the long-term economic efficiency of energy supplies and have an influence on different conditions deciding on local energy conservation measures and their feasibility. The municipal administrative authorities are requested not to be thoughtless about the standard agreements offered by the utilities. Legal aspects relevant to negotiations and agreements are discussed in detail. (BWI).

  8. European energy supplies; some considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahgat, G.

    2009-01-01

    European leaders are increasing conscious of their heavy dependence on energy supplies from Russia. In an attempt to articulate a strategy to improve energy security and Solidarity Action Plan in november 2008. This essay examines the E U-Russia energy partnership and argues that despite a number of supply-interruptions, of threats of interruptions, the interdependence between Brussels and Moscow is likely to endure, at least the foreseeable future. [it

  9. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2017-01-01

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term...

  10. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2018-02-01

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

  11. Qualitative and quantitative assessment of the short- and long-term consequences of opting out of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briem, G.; Halstrick, M.; Heilemann, U.; Hillebrand, B.; Kiy, M.; Neuhaus, R.; Knieper, O.; Schmidt, H.W.; Weiss, T.

    1986-08-01

    A reference scenario establishes the prospective development of the energy and overall economy under status-quo conditions, i.e. assuming especially the continued use of nuclear energy, while two scenarios (alternative I: 'immediate opting out' and alternative II: 'opting out in the long term') try to assess the consequences of a shutdown of nuclear energy for the economic development of the Federal Republic of Germany. Especially, the study deals with the effects on the power industry, the ecological consequences, and the overall economic effects both in the short and long run. In all three scenarios, the development of the home consumption of electric power is first of all determined by a structure model of the entire economy. The capacity required to meet that demand and its use are calculated with the aid of a power plant model; short- and long-term cost-minimization programmes making allowance especially for fuel and capital costs from the elements from which these quantities are derived. Fuel and capital costs operate as variables in the structure model to determine the sectoral and overall economic development. The report in addition investigates separately, in partial models, the effects on the chemical industry and the branches of industry processing iron, steel, and non-ferrous metals, all of which are greatly in demand of electric power. (orig./UA) [de

  12. Multi-perspective analysis of China's energy supply security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geng, Jiang-Bo; Ji, Qiang

    2014-01-01

    China's energy supply security has faced many challenges such as the drastic change of the international energy environment and the domestic energy situation and so on. This paper constructs a multi-dimensional indicator system for the main risks deriving from four aspects to evaluate the situation of China's energy supply security and analyze its evolution characteristics from 1994 to 2011. The results indicate that the situation of China's energy supply security generally presented a downtrend during 1994–2008, as a result of increasing international energy market monopoly and high volatility of international crude oil prices. After 2008, the overall level of China's energy supply security has improved to the level of 2003, which is attributed to the relatively stable international energy environment as well as the effective implementation of energy policies. - Highlights: • A multi-dimensional index system for energy supply security is constructed. • The dynamic influences of external and internal risks are analyzed. • China's energy supply security presents a downward trend during 1994–2008. • The level of China's energy supply security has improved since 2009

  13. Energy Choices. Global Energy Trends and Problems to Supply the Energy Demand; Vaegval Energi. Globala energitrender och problem att tillgodose energibehoven

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radetzki, Marian (Luleaa Univ. of Technology, Luleaa (Sweden))

    2008-09-15

    Although the use of renewable fuels is increasing, oil and other fossil fuels still dominate the global energy supply the next decades, as shown by a review of energy sector development from 1990 to today and projections up to 2030. Nothing indicates that the supplies of oil or any other fossil fuel will be depleted during the coming decades. Resource Nationalism has long characterized the oil market. OPEC has since 1970 successfully controlled the supply and price of oil for its producing member countries. The cartel's grip on the oil market has been strengthened in the 2000s commodity boom, not least as a result of improved production discipline among member countries. At the same time, the long-term trend in the world's great centers of consumption is towards a lower degree of self-sufficiency in energy. The EU dependence on import of oil is expected to rise to over ninety per cent by year 2030. In order to secure a stable energy supply, clear strategies in the oil-importing countries are needed. Tools include diversified import, storage and securing supplies through futures trading on commodity exchanges. Energy policy has long been focused on supply. But the environmental aspects of energy production and use has grown in importance and now the climate issue dominates the energy policy. So far, however, the policy measures to curb the effects of climate change has been both limited and cost-ineffective. The cost to seriously limit emissions of greenhouse gases will be high. To carry out serious climate measures will annually take at least one percent of global GDP, according to an estimate by the British economist Nicholas Stern. This can be compared to the additional cost of approximately five percent of global GDP as energy consumers had to absorb between 2005 and 2008 because of rising prices for fossil fuels

  14. Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market: A neural network approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catalao, J.P.S.; Mariano, S.J.P.S.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Ferreira, L.A.F.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes a neural network approach for forecasting short-term electricity prices. Almost until the end of last century, electricity supply was considered a public service and any price forecasting which was undertaken tended to be over the longer term, concerning future fuel prices and technical improvements. Nowadays, short-term forecasts have become increasingly important since the rise of the competitive electricity markets. In this new competitive framework, short-term price forecasting is required by producers and consumers to derive their bidding strategies to the electricity market. Accurate forecasting tools are essential for producers to maximize their profits, avowing profit losses over the misjudgement of future price movements, and for consumers to maximize their utilities. A three-layered feedforward neural network, trained by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, is used for forecasting next-week electricity prices. We evaluate the accuracy of the price forecasting attained with the proposed neural network approach, reporting the results from the electricity markets of mainland Spain and California. (author)

  15. Electricity and long term supply security. Search for power market respectful legal instruments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finon, D.; Pignon, V.

    2006-01-01

    This paper, also published in 'ISMEA Economie et Societe' Journal (Energy series 2006, no.10), deals with theoretical aspects of long term electricity supply security. Market prices and contractual arrangements on the physical and financial electricity markets do not allow to create sufficient incentives to invest in adequate capacity for guaranteeing the appropriate level of supply in every circumstance. The long term security of supply by capacity adequacy must be conceptualized as a collective good. Alternative solutions to reach capacity adequacy which have been adopted in different markets are successively considered: public procurement of strategic reserves, capacity payment, capacity obligation with exchangeable rights. Each one presents theoretical limits and practical drawbacks when implemented in complex markets. That brings out the interest of mechanism of centralized auctions for forward capacity contracts (or reliability options); it combines controls by quantity and by price while stabilizing investment in peak power plants and is compatible with energy and reserves markets, that is not the case of the three other instruments. (authors)

  16. Biomass for biogas plants in Denmark - in the short and long term; Biomasse til biogasanlaeg i Danmark - pae kort og langt sigt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Birkmose, T.; Hjort-Gregersen, K.; Stefanek, K.

    2013-04-15

    In the short term, it is one of the major challenges for the developments of the biogas sector that resources of organic waste of the type (organic industrial wastes) that have heretofore been used, generally are estimated to be nearly exhausted. This has led to a number of new biogas projects based on the use of corn (energy crops) as additional biomass to livestock manure. However, Danish policy now has implemented a restriction on the use of corn and other energy crops for biogas production. It is with the restriction clarified that there is a need to use other additional biomass for biogas production. There is a need in the short term to clarify how alternative biomasses such as straw, nature preservation biomass, household waste, etc. in a technically and economically reliable and satisfactory way can be used for biogas production, so that the dependence of energy crops can be reduced. Additionally, it will be essential if the yield of using manure can be increased to reduce economic dependence on energy crops. In the longer term it is essential to strengthen the assessment of the resource potential of biomass available for the production of biogas, and thus what the contribution of biogas in the long term is estimated to be in the future energy supply based on renewable energy. The present report presents the current and future biomass resources potential and biogas production potential. The biomass resources are primarily agricultural and municipal wastes. (LN)

  17. Monitoring the Vulnerability of Energy Supply System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnansonounou, E.

    2006-01-01

    Due to the increasing complexity of the world evolution, the public decision makers, the energy supply industry and the consumers in industrialised countries are more and more sensitive to the vulnerability of energy supply. The emergence of new big consumer countries and the perspective of oil and gas depletion at the end of the current century raise the concerns about how to share fairly the remaining resources for the common and sustainable development of the mankind. Erratic energy prices discourage investment and delay the energy transition. Voluntary measures are needed mainly in industrialised countries in order to develop alternative and sustainable energy sources and to avoid world struggle for energy procurement. In this contribution a synthetic energy vulnerability index is defined for monitoring energy supply vulnerability. The proposed index is based on energy intensity, oil and gas import dependency, CO 2 content of primary energy supply, electricity supply vulnerability and non-diversity in transport fuels. The preliminary assessment of this synthetic index for selected industrialised countries provides promising results that need however further refinement.(author)

  18. Pro short-term procurement - U.S. utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    The author expresses the opinion that rather than focusing market discussions around short-term versus long-term procurement strategies, the parties need to be focusing on how long it is going to take to get to a predominantly market-based price both in uranium and enrichment. Long-term contracts are going to be around and will always be an important part of buyers' and sellers' strategies. It is evident that the annual term contract price renegotiations around the world are resulting in continually lower prices. When these price negotiations finally arrive in the range of the market price, a commodity market that resembles other energy commodity markets can be obtained

  19. Challenges in assessment of clean energy supply-chains based on byproduct minerals: A case study of tellurium use in thin film photovoltaics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bustamante, Michele L.; Gaustad, Gabrielle

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Byproduct mining presents unique challenges to quantifying energy security issues. • This case study shows Te scarcity is closely tied to Cu demand and production. • Material intensity changes over time have a significant impact on projections. • Recycling as a mitigation strategy is shown to have poor short-term results. - Abstract: Transitioning to a sustainable energy supply will be critical to meeting future economic and environmental goals. This transition will require optimizing and commercializing a portfolio of new clean energy technologies. However, many promising clean energy technologies are based on materials with inherent risks in their supply; these risks include scarcity, price volatility, criticality, and other potential supply-chain disruptions. Using tellurium use in CdTe photovoltaics as a case study, this paper presents analysis of some of the key challenges associated with modeling byproduct systems (a supply-chain where a key material is actually a byproduct of extraction of another material, copper in the case of tellurium). This work presents a novel modeling approach; the results of the case study are used to identify potential supply risks facing this clean technology, with a unique focus on sensitivity to changes in the preliminary lifecycle stages. Supply-chain sensitivities are connected with direct environmental impacts to frame the implications in a broader sustainability context and to emphasize the future role of recycling. Ultimately, it was shown that if historical supply and demand trends continue, supply gap conditions will emerge before the end of the current decade. However, improvements in byproduct yield, end-use recycling rate, and end-use material intensity exhibit significant leverage to minimize risk in the energy-critical tellurium supply-chain

  20. Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costantini, V.; Markandya, A.; Vicini, G.

    2007-01-01

    This policy compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyse projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy-importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level. (author)

  1. Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costantini, Valeria; Gracceva, Francesco; Markandya, Anil; Vicini, Giorgio

    2007-01-01

    This paper compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyse projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy-importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level

  2. Nuclear power and sustainable energy supply for Europe. European Commission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilden, W.

    2005-01-01

    The right energy mix is decisive. The European Commission feels that nuclear power can make an important contribution towards sustainable energy supply in Europe. Nuclear power should keep its place in the European energy mix. One important aspect in this regard is improved public acceptance through communication, transparency, and confidence building. High safety standards and a credible approach to the safe long-term management of radioactive waste are major components of this sustainable energy source. (orig./GL)

  3. Short-Term Memory as an Additional Predictor of School Achievement for Immigrant Children?

    Science.gov (United States)

    te Nijenhuis, Jan; Resing, Wilma; Tolboom, Elsbeth; Bleichrodt, Nico

    2004-01-01

    The predictive validity and utility of assessment procedures can be increased by adding predictors to the prediction supplied by general ability tests. Of Jensen's early work comes the suggestion of focusing on the cognitive ability short-term memory (STM), especially for low-"g" Black children. Meta-analysis convincingly shows high…

  4. Dangerous dream: Nuclear power. With an attached short dictionary of terms in nuclear energy. Der gefaehrliche Traum: Atomkraft. Mit kleinem Lexikon der Atom-Energie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paul, R

    1986-01-01

    After Chernobyl: Necessary basic knowledge and information, data on safety hazards and risks, sketches of all German nuclear power plants and brief accounts of incidents reported so far, consequences of the Chernobyl and Harrisburg accidents for man and the environment, emergency control plans. With an attached short dictionary of terms in nuclear energy.

  5. Long term plan of atomic energy development and utilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    The atomic energy utilization and development in Japan have progressed remarkably, and already nuclear power generation has borne an important part in electric power supply, while radiation has been utilized in the fields of industry, agriculture, medicine and so on. Now, atomic energy is indispensable for national life and industrial activity. The former long term plan was decided in September, 1978, and the new long term plan should be established since the situation has changed largely. The energy substituting for petroleum has been demanded, and the expectation to nuclear power generation has heightened because it enables stable and economical power supply. The independently developed technology related to atomic energy must be put in practical use. The peaceful utilization of atomic energy must be promoted, while contributing to the nuclear non-proliferation policy. The Atomic Energy Commission of Japan decided the new long term plan to clearly show the outline of the important measures related to atomic energy development and utilization in 10 years hereafter, and the method of its promotion. The basic concept of atomic energy development and utilization, the long term prospect and the concept on the promotion, the method of promoting the development and utilization, and the problems of funds, engineers and location are described. (kako, I.)

  6. Non-OPEC Oil Supply: Economics and Energy Policy Options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mourik, Maarten van [Paris (France); Shepherd, Richard K. [Perpignan (France)

    2003-07-01

    shift in investment strategy than the lure of better profits. However strong the evidence of an imminent peaking of offshore and perhaps total non-OPEC oil supply, the reality is that governments will not readily recognise a 'bad news' scenario that will inevitably tarnish their own political image. It follows that a global and permanent threat to their economies and energy security from a shortfall in oil supply outside the Persian Gulf and central Asia will only become a policy assumption if viable and attractive energy policy options are available. If there is single focus to any energy supply threat, then it is the market for transportation fuels, the strongest growing segment of the energy market and the only segment of the energy market where there are no significant alternatives already on offer. The second half of this paper suggests that there are industrial or financial obstacles to the large-scale introduction of fuels other than current specification gasoline and diesel. Almost all the current initiatives to explore and encourage alternative fuels address a long-term future in which fuel cells or hydrogen or 'California-clean' liquids replace the current fuels at the pump. Further, most research concentrates on the environmental aspects of the alternatives rather than their large-scale industrial availability. Yet the hard reality is that any solution to the global oil supply dilemma must be large scale (at least 10% of the total market for transportation fuels) and soon, which means within a decade. The technical facts are that fuels such as ethanol and methanol can be produced in very large volumes and delivered to the consumer without any significant change to the huge infrastructure constituted by the global internal combustion engine manufacturing industry and by the existing fuel distribution networks. This large, immediate and obvious opportunity has not been grasped so far for the excellent reason that the status quo is profitable

  7. Evaluation of NEB energy markets and supply monitoring function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-09-01

    Canada's National Energy Board regulates the exports of oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids and electricity. It also regulates the construction, operation and tolls of international and interprovincial pipelines and power lines. It also monitors energy supply and market developments in Canada. The Board commissioned an evaluation of the monitoring function to ensure the effectiveness and efficiency of the monitoring activities, to identify gaps in these activities and to propose recommendations. The objectives of the monitoring mandate are to provide Canadians with information regarding Canadian energy markets, energy supply and demand, and to ensure that exports of natural gas, oil, natural gas liquids and electricity do not occur at the detriment of Canadian energy users. The Board ensures that Canadians have access to domestically produced energy on terms that are as favourable as those available to export buyers. The following recommendations were proposed to improve the monitoring of energy markets and supply: (1) increase focus and analysis on the functioning of gas (first priority) and other commodity markets, (2) increase emphasis on forward-looking market analysis and issue identification, (3) demonstrate continued leadership by encouraging public dialogue on a wide range of energy market issues, (4) improve communication and increase visibility of the NEB within the stakeholder community, (5) build on knowledge management and organizational learning capabilities, (6) improve communication and sharing of information between the Applications and Commodities Business Units, and (7) enhance organizational effectiveness of the Commodities Business Unit. figs

  8. The Vision of the Role of Hydrogen in Energy Supply in the Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbir, F.

    2008-01-01

    Europe is in a very difficult situation regarding the future of energy supply because it is highly dependent on import of oil and natural gas. In addition, because of environmental pollution, global climate changes, ?nite World reserves of fossil fuels and geo-political implications of distribution of those reserves, such an energy system is not sustainable. The need for inevitable changes in energy supply is becoming more and more obvious. This includes not only a change of the energy sources, but also in energy carriers and technologies for their conversion into useful forms of energy, as well as a change in the ways energy is used today. Based on present knowledge, the only energy sources that satisfy the sustainability requirements are the renewable energy sources - direct solar insolation and its consequences (wind, hydro, biomass). As the renewable energy sources cannot be utilized directly in most of applications there is a need for such energy carriers which can be produced from renewable energy sources and which can satisfy all the energy needs at the end use, again satisfying the sustainability requirements. Electricity is one of such energy carrier which may be used in most but not in all applications. There is a need for other energy carriers in the form of fuels which can be stored and used, for example, in the transportation sector. This is a role that hydrogen can fulfill in a future energy system - hydrogen satisfies the conditions of sustainability, can be produced from renewable energy sources and together with electricity can satisfy all energy needs. Although the role of hydrogen in a future energy system can be envisioned with some certainty, the problem is the transition, i.e. switching from the present energy system based on fossil fuels to the future energy system based on renewable energy sources. Of course, such transition cannot happen overnight, but the question is where and how to start and at which pace to proceed. Insistence on short

  9. Energy and supply concepts. Pt. 3. Energie- und Versorgungskonzepte. T. 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolodziejczyk, K

    1989-01-01

    Part three deals with the classification of energy and supply concepts (primary and secondary energy sources, energy conversion processes). A discussion of classification criteria (4 criteria, different process levels) is followed by a description of process and energy flows (flowsheet showing the energy flow of an interconnected system combining electric power/steam/heat supplies and refrigeration), a presentation of concrete energy and supply concepts (flow sheet, selection and evaluation criteria, situation and process analysis, cost-benefit analysis, use of computers, system value analysis), approaches and solutions (decisions). The complex task of finding appropriate supply solutions is found to be depending on the knowledge, creativity, and methodical skill of those in charge. (HWJ).

  10. Proceedings of the 13th forum: Croatian Energy Day: Long-term planning and consumer supply safety in open market conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granic, G.; Jelavic, B.

    2004-01-01

    The process of opening up the energy market has been proceeding at an accelerating pace; legislative and institutional prerequisites have come into existence for a transparent and nondiscriminatory approach to energy systems (networks), and for an easy market access to suppliers by granting customers the right of supplier choice. National borders - once an obstacle to energy market development - are thus eliminated. Advantages of this sort of development strategy for energy markets include top-quality competition and market de-monopolization, which in turn, as a rule, imply a more favorable position for the users of energy system services, for energy buyers / purchasers, and for consumers. However, the coexistence of internal (national) and international competitions raises the issue of the framework and contents of long-term planning, as well as of the liability of states and government institutions for the adequacy, security, and stability of energy sources, and consequently for customer supply security

  11. Securitization of energy supply chains in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leung, Guy C.K.; Cherp, Aleh; Jewell, Jessica; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Three sources of energy security risks, namely sovereignty, robustness and resilience, affect China’s energy chains. • Energy security issues in China both have shaped and at the same time were shaped by ideas and institutions. • China remains rigid with equating ‘security’ with ‘national security’ and the notion of “national” is socially constructed. • Powerful actors, such as Chinese NOCs, inclined to interpret the problem so that it fits their preferred solution. • Securitization of any energy supply chains results from their historical roots, system properties and institutional agents. - Abstract: Energy policies in China, the world’s largest energy consumer, are an important factor in shaping the global energy system. While scholars agree that energy security is a major driver of China’s energy policies, there is insufficient understanding of what exactly constitutes China’s energy security from the policy perspective. We apply recent insights from the Global Energy Assessment, particularly the idea of vital energy systems, and the securitization theory to propose a framework for explaining China’s energy security policies in their historic evolution. We pay specific attention to explaining how particular energy supply chains are constructed and securitized. We draw data from over 300 Chinese and over 100 English publications and 30 interviews with energy officials and experts in China. We demonstrate that China’s focus on vulnerabilities of its oil supply chain at the expense of improving the reliability of domestic electricity supply is not accidental. It has its roots in historic events, properties of energy systems, as well as the presence of powerful institutional agents interested in securitizing the oil supply chain but not other vital energy systems. We suggest that this focus on the oil supply chain is likely to be maintained in the future, possibly accompanied by increasing concerns over natural gas

  12. Short-term versus long-term market opportunities and financial constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrari, Angelo

    1999-01-01

    This presentation discusses gas developments in Europe, the European Gas Directive, short term vs. long term, and Snam's new challenges. The European gas market is characterized by (1) The role of gas in meeting the demand for energy, which varies greatly from one country to another, (2) A growing market, (3) Decreasing role of domestic production, and (4) Increasing imports. Within the European Union, the Gas Directive aims to transform single national markets into one integrated European market by introducing third party access to the network for eligible clients as a means of increasing the competition between operators. The Gas Directive would appear to modify the form of the market rather than its size, and in particular the sharing of responsibility and risk among operators. The market in the future will offer operators the possibility to exploit opportunities deriving mainly from demands for increased flexibility. Opportunities linked to entrepreneurial initiatives require long-term investments characteristic of the gas business. Risks and opportunities must be balanced evenly between different operators. If everyone takes on their own risks and responsibilities, this means a wider distribution of the risks of long-term vs. short-term, currently borne by the gas companies that are integrated, into a market that tends to favour the short-term. A gradual liberalization process should allow incumbent operators to gradually diversify their activities in new gas market areas or enter new business activities. They could move beyond their local and European boundaries in pursuit of an international dimension. The market will have to make the transition from the national to the European dimension: as an example, Snam covers 90% of the Italian market, but its share of an integrated European market will be about 15%

  13. Energy supply and energy saving in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.M. Ilchenko

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the main problems and solutions of energy saving and energy supply in Ukraine. Low energy efficiency has become one of the main factors of the crisis in the Ukrainian economy. The most relevant scientific and methodical approaches to assessment of the level of energy consumption and saving are indicated. The comparative analysis of annual energy use has been made. A potential to solve energy supply problems is strongly correlated with the ability to ensure the innovative development of economy for efficient and economical use of existing and imported energy resources. The ways for reducing of energy resource consumption have been suggested. Creation of technological conditions for the use of alternative energy sources is considered to be rational also. The development of renewable sources of energy (alternative and renewable energy sources will provide a significant effect in reducing the use of traditional energy sources, harmful emissions and greenhouse gas. Under these conditions, increasing of energy efficiency of economy and its competitiveness can be real. Improvement of environmental and social conditions of citizens of the country will mark a positive step towards the EU, and also will cancel some problems of the future generation.

  14. Short-term versus long-term contracting for uranium enrichment services

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rudy, G.P.

    1990-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (US DOE) is the world's largest and most experienced supplier of uranium enrichment services. Through the late 1970s and early 1980s, emerging market forces transformed what was once a monopoly into a highly competitive industry. In the early 1980's the DOE lost market share. But as we enter the 1990s, new market forces have emerged. The US DOE believes a responsible balance between long-term and short-term contracting will be the key to success and the key to assuring the long-term health and reliability of the nuclear fuel industry. The US DOE intends to be in this nuclear business for a long time and will continue to offer reliable and responsive services second to none

  15. Defect production in simulated cascades: cascade quenching and short-term annealing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinisch, H.L.

    1982-01-01

    Defect production in high energy displacement cascades has been modeled using the computer code MARLOWE to generate the cascades and the stochastic computer code ALSOME to simulate the cascade quenching and short-term annealing of isolated cascades. The quenching is accomplished by using ALSOME with exaggerated values for defect mobilities and critical reaction distanes for recombination and clustering, which are in effect until the number of defect pairs is equal to the value determined from resistivity experiments at 4K. Then normal mobilities and reaction distances are used during short-term annealing to a point representative of Stage III recovery. Effects of cascade interactions at low fluences are also being investigated. The quenching parameter values were empirically determined for 30 keV cascades. The results agree well with experimental information throughout the range from 1 keV to 100 keV. Even after quenching and short-term annealing the high energy cascades behave as a collection of lower energy subcascades and lobes. Cascades generated in a crystal having thermal displacements were found to be in better agreement with experiments after quenching and annealing than those generated in a non-thermal crystal

  16. Panorama 2012 - Short-term trends in the gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecarpentier, Armelle

    2011-12-01

    Against the background of an energy market beset by the Fukushima crisis, the Arab spring and economic uncertainty, 2011 saw dynamic growth in demand for natural gas, although developments varied widely from region to region. New trends are emerging in the gas market, and these will have both short-term and longer-term impacts on how the industry develops. (author)

  17. Long-term factors in oil supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banks, F E

    1984-01-01

    The Stanford Energy Supply Forum prediction that world oil demand in 1990 will press on supply and send prices into an irreversible climb assumes that the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries will control unemployment, that Third World population growth will require more energy, and that several oil exporters will be reducing their output. The author points out disappointing exploration results, OPEC's continued strength, downward projections of reserves by geological surveys, and other economic factors to show that oil supplies are likely to last less than 40 years, with remaining reserves concentrated in fewer producing countries. This will make it harder for non-OPEC countries to influence prices, in contrast to more positive forecasts from the oil industry.

  18. Supply Chain Management for Improved Energy Efficiency: Review and Opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatrice Marchi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Energy efficiency represents a key resource for economic and social development, providing substantial benefits to different stakeholders, ranging from the entities which develop energy efficient measures to everyone in society. In addition to cost savings, multiple benefits can be achieved by supporting a better alignment between energy issues and strategic business priorities: e.g., improved competitiveness, profitability, quality, etc. Thus, energy efficiency can be a strategic advantage, not just a marginal issue, for companies. However, most firms, especially small and medium enterprises (SMEs, face many problems and, in some cases, hostility when trying to effectively implement energy efficiency actions. The most dominant barriers are the access to capital and the lack of awareness (especially in terms of life cycle cost effects. The supply chain viewpoint represents one of the main opportunities for overcoming those barriers and improving energy performance even for weaker companies. Since the current literature on energy efficiency and practical approaches to ensure energy efficiency mainly focus on energy performance on a single-firm basis, this paper aims to provide a systematic review of papers on the integration of energy efficiency in supply chain design and management published in academic journal, thereby defining potential research streams to close the gaps in the literature. A number of literature reviews have been published focusing on specific aspects of sustainable or on green supply chain management; however, to the best of our knowledge, no review has focused on the energy efficiency issue. Firstly, the present paper shows how considering energy consumption in supply chain management can contribute to more energy-efficient processes from a systemic point of view. Then, the review methodology used is defined and the sampled papers are analyzed and categorized based on the different approaches they propose. From these

  19. Water Use of Fossil Energy Production and Supply in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Lin

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Fossil energy and water resources are both important for economic and social development in China, and they are tightly interlinked. Fossil energy production consumes large amounts of water, and it is essential to investigate the water footprint of fossil energy production (WFEP in China. In addition, fossil energy is supplied to consumers in China by both domestic and foreign producers, and understanding the water footprint of fossil energy supply (WFES is also highly significant for water and energy development programs in the long-term. The objectives of this paper were to provide an estimation of the blue component of WFEP and WFES in China for the period from 2001 to 2014, and to evaluate the impact on water resources from energy production, the contribution of internal and external WFES, and water-energy related issues of the international energy trade by applying water footprint analysis based on the bottom-up approach. The results indicate that generally, the WFEP and WFES in China both maintained steady growth before 2013, with the WFEP increasing from approximately 3900 million m3/year to 10,400 million m3/year, while the WFES grew from 3900 million m3/year to 11,600 million m3/year. The fossil energy production caps of the 13th Five Year Plan can bring the water consumed for fossil energy production back to a sustainable level. Over the long-term, China’s energy trade plan should also consider the water and energy resources of the countries from which fossil energy is imported.

  20. Energy in 2010 - 2020. Long term challenges; Energie 2010-2020. Les defis du long terme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dessus, Benjamin [ed.] [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France)

    2000-02-02

    This report presents the results of a workshop intending to anticipate the long term challenges, to guide better the short term power options, to understand the available political, economical and technical assumptions for the prospective world situation, to give some strategic hints on the necessary transition. Indeed, the difficult issue which the workshop tried to tackle was how should we prepare to reveal the energetic challenge of the development of the eight to ten billion inhabitants of our Planet in the next century without jeopardizing its existence. The energetic problems, a hardcore of the international preoccupation of both growth and environment, as it was recently evidenced by the climatic conference in Kyoto, have ever been the object of a particular attention on the part of General Commissariat of Plan. Thus, the commission 'Energy in 2010 - 2020' has been instituted in April 1996 in order to update the works done in 1990 - 1991 by the commission 'Energy 2010'. Soon it occurred to this new commission the task of illuminating its works by a long term (2050 - 2100) world prospective analysis of the challenges and problems linked to energy, growth and environment. In conclusion, this document tried to find answers to questions like: - which are the risks the energy consumption augmentation entail? - can we control them by appropriate urbanism and transport policies or technological innovation?. Four options for immediate action are suggested: - the energy efficiency should become a priority objective of policies; -coping with the long term challenges requires acting at present; - building the transition between governmental leadership and market; - taking profit of all the possible synergies between short and long term planning.

  1. Effect of feeding greater amounts of dietary energy for a short-term with or without eCG injection on reproductive performance, serum metabolites and hormones in ewes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habibizad, Javad; Riasi, Ahmad; Kohram, Hamid; Rahmani, Hamid Reza

    2015-09-01

    This study was conducted to compare the effect of transient high-energy diet in a short-term period with or without eCG injection on ovarian follicle development, twining rate, serum metabolites and hormones in ewes. A total of 45 estrous cyclic Naeini ewes were randomly assigned to three experimental groups: 1-Control (control), 2-High energy short-term feeding (HE), and 3-high energy short-term feeding + eCG injection (HEe). Ewes were housed in individual pens with free access to feed and water. The stage of the estrous cycle of all ewes was synchronized by insertion of intravaginal progesterone sponges. Focus feeding started from 4 days before until 1 day after sponge removal. Follicle development was monitored from 4 days before until 1 day after sponge removal and blood samples were taken during this time. Results showed that ewes fed high energy diets (HE and HEe) had greater (P ewes fed high energy diets had less (P ewes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. 77 FR 31182 - Final Withdrawal of Regulations Pertaining to Imports of Cotton Woven Fabric and Short Supply...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-25

    ... Woven Fabric and Short Supply Procedures AGENCY: Import Administration, International Trade... final rule withdrawing regulations pertaining to imports of cotton woven fabric and short supply..., and the short supply voluntary restraints have not affected U.S. trade for over 19 years. The removal...

  3. Industrial energy management; Betriebliches Energiemanagement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goebel, D.

    2007-07-01

    Effective and successful energy and facility management uses a holistic view in which the life cycles of plants and buildings are considered, plus efficient controlling and reporting. The challenge is not in short-term cost reduction but in ensuring long-term effects. This requires management strategies which make use of synergy effects by means of interdisciplinary measures. Main topics: management of energy utilization, energy conversion and energy supply. (GL)

  4. Uruguay Energy Supply Options Study: a Detailed Multi-Sector Integrated Energy Supply and Demand Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conzelmann, G.; Veselka, T.

    1997-01-01

    Uruguay is in the middle of making critical decisions affecting the design of its future energy supply system.Momentum for change is expected to come from several directions including recent and foreseeable upgrades and modifications to energy conversion facilities, the importation of natural gas from Argentina, the possibility for a stronger interconnection of regional electricity systems, the country s membership in MERCOSUR, and the potential for energy sector reforms by the Government of Uruguay.The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of several fuel diversification strategies on Uruguay s energy supply system.The analysis pays special attention to fuel substitution trends due to potential imports of natural gas via a gas pipeline from Argentina and increasing electricity ties with neighboring countries.The Government of Uruguay contracted Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to study several energy development scenario ns with the support of several Uruguayan Institutions.Specifically, ANL was asked to conduct a detailed energy supply and demand analysis, develop energy demand projections based on an analysis of past energy demand patterns with support from local institutions, evaluate the effects of potential natural gas imports and electricity exchanges, and determine the market penetration of natural gas under various scenarios

  5. Towards a sustainable global energy supply infrastructure: Net energy balance and density considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kessides, Ioannis N.; Wade, David C.

    2011-01-01

    This paper employs a framework of dynamic energy analysis to model the growth potential of alternative electricity supply infrastructures as constrained by innate physical energy balance and dynamic response limits. Coal-fired generation meets the criteria of longevity (abundance of energy source) and scalability (ability to expand to the multi-terawatt level) which are critical for a sustainable energy supply chain, but carries a very heavy carbon footprint. Renewables and nuclear power, on the other hand, meet both the longevity and environmental friendliness criteria. However, due to their substantially different energy densities and load factors, they vary in terms of their ability to deliver net excess energy and attain the scale needed for meeting the huge global energy demand. The low power density of renewable energy extraction and the intermittency of renewable flows limit their ability to achieve high rates of indigenous infrastructure growth. A significant global nuclear power deployment, on the other hand, could engender serious risks related to proliferation, safety, and waste disposal. Unlike renewable sources of energy, nuclear power is an unforgiving technology because human lapses and errors can have ecological and social impacts that are catastrophic and irreversible. Thus, the transition to a low carbon economy is likely to prove much more challenging than early optimists have claimed. - Highlights: → We model the growth potential of alternative electricity supply infrastructures. → Coal is scalable and abundant but carries a heavy carbon footprint. → Renewables and nuclear meet the longevity and environmental friendliness criteria. → The low power density and intermittency of renewables limit their growth potential. → Nuclear power continues to raise concerns about proliferation, safety, and waste.

  6. Potential Evaluation of Energy Supply System in Grid Power System, Commercial, and Residential Sectors by Minimizing Energy Cost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oda, Takuya; Akisawa, Atushi; Kashiwagi, Takao

    If the economic activity in the commercial and residential sector continues to grow, improvement in energy conversion efficiencies of energy supply systems is necessary for CO2 mitigation. In recent years, the electricity driven hot water heat pump (EDHP) and the solar photo voltaic (PV) are commercialized. The fuel cell (FC) of co-generation system (CGS) for the commercial and residential sector will be commercialized in the future. The aim is to indicate the ideal energy supply system of the users sector, which both manages the economical cost and CO2 mitigation, considering the grid power system. In the paper, cooperative Japanese energy supply systems are modeled by linear-programming. It includes the grid power system and energy systems of five commercial sectors and a residential sector. The demands of sectors are given by the objective term for 2005 to 2025. 24 hours load for each 3 annual seasons are considered. The energy systems are simulated to be minimize the total cost of energy supply, and to be mitigate the CO2 discharge. As result, the ideal energy system at 2025 is shown. The CGS capacity grows to 30% (62GW) of total power system, and the EDHP capacity is 26GW, in commercial and residential sectors.

  7. SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF DIESEL OIL ON PHYTOPLANKTON

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. EKWEME

    Short-term effect of Nigerian diesel oil was tested on the phytoplankton species in Great Kwa River ... aquatic environment. Plant life is the basis of all food web in nature and hence constitutes the makes this fundamental contribution by photosynthesis, utilizing radiant energy to .... (2 cells/ml) re-colonized the area. The three ...

  8. Short and long term supply curves for crude oil and the consequences for the market; Kurz- und langfristige Angebotskurven fuer Rohoel und die Konsequenzen fuer den Markt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlothmann, Daniel

    2016-03-08

    In this work, supply curves for 22 major oil producing countries were identified and then aggregated into global supply curves. According to the identified supply curves, almost all oil-producing oil projects currently under development in the study countries are also profitable at the current oil price of $ 35 to $ 40 per barrel, taking short-term marginal costs into account. However, if the price of oil remains at this level in the coming years, a supply bottleneck on the global oil market will occur until 2024, as the development of cost-intensive, unconventional deposits and of deposits in deep and very deep waters is necessary to meet future demand. In order to avoid such a supply bottleneck by 2024, an oil price of at least US $ 80 per barrel is required, according to the long-term market equilibrium determined. [German] In dieser Arbeit wurden Angebotskurven fuer 22 bedeutende Oelfoerderlaender ermittelt und anschliessend zu globalen Angebotskurven aggregiert. Gemaess den ermittelten Angebotskurven sind nahezu alle gegenwaertig in der Foerderphase befindlichen Oelprojekte in den Untersuchungslaendern auch beim aktuellen Oelpreis von 35 bis 40 US-$ je Barrel unter Beruecksichtigung der kurzfristigen Grenzkosten rentabel. Sollte der Oelpreis jedoch in den kommenden Jahren auf diesem Niveau verharren, wird es bis zum Jahr 2024 zu einem Angebotsengpass auf dem globalen Oelmarkt kommen, da zur Deckung der zukuenftigen Nachfrage die Erschliessung kostenintensiver, unkonventioneller Lagerstaetten und von Lagerstaetten in tiefen und sehr tiefen Gewaessern notwendig ist. Damit es bis zum Jahr 2024 nicht zu einem solchen Angebotsengpass kommt, ist gemaess des ermittelten langfristigen Marktgleichgewichts ein Oelpreis von mindestens 80 (2014er) US-$ je Barrel notwendig.

  9. National energy plan. V. 1 and 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The first volume, presents a general outlook of the energy situation of the country where the demand and supply, prices of energy are analyzed. The second volume, describes alternatives of short, medium and long terms, making emphasis in structural strengthening of energy sector

  10. 76 FR 67721 - PNE Energy Supply, LLC;

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-02

    ... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. ER12-186-000] PNE Energy Supply, LLC; Supplemental Notice that Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request for Blanket... Supply, LLC's application for market-based rate authority, with an accompanying rate tariff, noting that...

  11. Energy supply in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weidou Ni; Niendak Sze

    1995-01-01

    Coal is the main primary energy source in China. How to use coal cleanly and efficiently is the extremely important problem in China. Energy conservation and technology innovation are the key measures for mitigation of the pressure of energy supply. Import of energy (petroleum, LNG and high calorific coal) is inevitable. China has quite abundant energy resources, but the energy resource per capita is rather low. Because of the structure of industry and backwardness of technology, the energy consumption per unit GNP is also very low

  12. Combined heat and power production planning in a waste-to-energy plant on a short-term basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Touš, Michal; Pavlas, Martin; Putna, Ondřej; Stehlík, Petr; Crha, Lukáš

    2015-01-01

    In many cases, WtE (waste-to-energy) plants are CHP (combined heat and power) producers. They are often integrated into a central heating system and they also export electricity to the grid. Therefore, they have to plan their operation on a long-term basis (months, years) as well as on a short-term basis (hours, days). Simulation models can effectively support decision making in CHP production planning. In general, CHP production planning on a short-term basis is a challenging task for WtE plants. This article presents a simulation based support. It is demonstrated on an example involving a real WtE plant. Most of the models of relevant WtE sub-systems (boilers, steam turbine) are developed using operational data and applying linear regression and artificial neural network technique. The process randomness given mainly by fluctuating heating value of waste leads to uncertainty in a calculation of CHP production and a stochastic approach is appropriate. The models of the sub-systems are, therefore, extended of a stochastic part and Monte-Carlo simulation is applied. Compared to the current planning strategy in the involved WtE plant, the stochastic simulation based planning provides increased CHP production resulting in better net thermal efficiency and increased revenue. This is demonstrated through a comparison using real operational data. - Highlights: • Introduction of a stochastic model of a CHP production in a waste-to-energy plant. • An application of the model for the next day CHP production planning. • Better net thermal efficiency and therefore increased revenue achieved.

  13. Energy supplying of the Europe and foreign policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, P.

    1998-03-01

    This paper aims to answer the question on the impact of the energy supply in Europe on the foreign and safety policy. The geo-political principles of the energy, the european petroleum and gaseous supply and the american policy facing the european energy supply are analyzed. (A.L.B.)

  14. A methodology based on dynamic artificial neural network for short-term forecasting of the power output of a PV generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almonacid, F.; Pérez-Higueras, P.J.; Fernández, Eduardo F.; Hontoria, L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The output of the majority of renewables energies depends on the variability of the weather conditions. • The short-term forecast is going to be essential for effectively integrating solar energy sources. • A new method based on artificial neural network to predict the power output of a PV generator one hour ahead is proposed. • This new method is based on dynamic artificial neural network to predict global solar irradiance and the air temperature. • The methodology developed can be used to estimate the power output of a PV generator with a satisfactory margin of error. - Abstract: One of the problems of some renewables energies is that the output of these kinds of systems is non-dispatchable depending on variability of weather conditions that cannot be predicted and controlled. From this point of view, the short-term forecast is going to be essential for effectively integrating solar energy sources, being a very useful tool for the reliability and stability of the grid ensuring that an adequate supply is present. In this paper a new methodology for forecasting the output of a PV generator one hour ahead based on dynamic artificial neural network is presented. The results of this study show that the proposed methodology could be used to forecast the power output of PV systems one hour ahead with an acceptable degree of accuracy

  15. Simulation of Mechanical Processes in Gas Storage Caverns for Short-Term Energy Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttcher, Norbert; Nagel, Thomas; Kolditz, Olaf

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, Germany's energy management has started to be transferred from fossil fuels to renewable and sustainable energy carriers. Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power are subjected by fluctuations, thus the development and extension of energy storage capacities is a priority in German R&D programs. This work is a part of the ANGUS+ Project, funded by the federal ministry of education and research, which investigates the influence of subsurface energy storage on the underground. The utilization of subsurface salt caverns as a long-term storage reservoir for fossil fuels is a common method, since the construction of caverns in salt rock is inexpensive in comparison to solid rock formations due to solution mining. Another advantage of evaporate as host material is the self-healing behaviour of salt rock, thus the cavity can be assumed to be impermeable. In the framework of short-term energy storage (hours to days), caverns can be used as gas storage reservoirs for natural or artificial fuel gases, such as hydrogen, methane, or compressed air, where the operation pressures inside the caverns will fluctuate more frequently. This work investigates the influence of changing operation pressures at high frequencies on the stability of the host rock of gas storage caverns utilizing numerical models. Therefore, we developed a coupled Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical (THM) model based on the finite element method utilizing the open-source software platform OpenGeoSys. The salt behaviour is described by well-known constitutive material models which are capable of predicting creep, self-healing, and dilatancy processes. Our simulations include the thermodynamic behaviour of gas storage process, temperature development and distribution on the cavern boundary, the deformation of the cavern geometry, and the prediction of the dilatancy zone. Based on the numerical results, optimal operation modes can be found for individual caverns, so the risk of host rock damage

  16. Exploring energy saving policy measures by renewable energy supplying cooperatives (REScoops)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coenen, Franciscus H.J.M.; Hoppe, Thomas; Chalkiadakis, Georgios; Tsoutsos, Theocharis; Akasiadis, Charilaos

    2017-01-01

    Cooperatives for renewable energy supply (REScoops) provide their members renewably generated energy within a cooperative model that enables members to co-decide on the cooperative’s future. REScoops do not only collectively own renewable energy production facilities and supply this to their

  17. Energy demand and supply, energy policies, and energy security in the Republic of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hoseok; Shin, Eui-soon; Chung, Woo-jin

    2011-01-01

    The Republic of Korea (ROK) has enjoyed rapid economic growth and development over the last 30 years. Rapid increases in energy use-especially petroleum, natural gas, and electricity, and especially in the industrial and transport sectors-have fueled the ROK's economic growth, but with limited fossil fuel resources of its own, the result has been that the ROK is almost entirely dependent on energy imports. The article that follows summarizes the recent trends in the ROK energy sector, including trends in energy demand and supply, and trends in economic, demographic, and other activities that underlie trends in energy use. The ROK has been experiencing drastic changes in its energy system, mainly induced by industrial, supply security, and environmental concerns, and energy policies in the ROK have evolved over the years to address such challenges through measures such as privatization of energy-sector activities, emphases on enhancing energy security through development of energy efficiency, nuclear power, and renewable energy, and a related focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The assembly of a model for evaluating energy futures in the ROK (ROK2010 LEAP) is described, and results of several policy-based scenarios focused on different levels of nuclear energy utilization are described, and their impacts on of energy supply and demand in the ROK through the year 2030 are explored, along with their implications for national energy security and long-term policy plans. Nuclear power continues to hold a crucial position in the ROK's energy policy, but aggressive expansion of nuclear power alone, even if possible given post-Fukushima global concerns, will not be sufficient to attain the ROK's 'green economy' and greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals. - Research highlights: →Rapid industrialization caused ROK energy use to increase over 10-fold during 1970-2000, with dramatic structural changes. → Growth in energy use after 2000 slowed to under 5%/yr, and

  18. Energy-Cost Optimisation in Water-Supply System

    OpenAIRE

    Farrukh Mahmood; Haider Ali

    2013-01-01

    Households as well as community water-supply systems for utilisation of underground aquifers are massive consumers of energy. Prevailing energy crisis and focus of the government on demand-side energy policies (i.e., energy conservation) in Pakistan raises need of using energy efficient techniques in almost every aspect of life. This paper analyses performance of community relative to household water-supply system in connection with efficient energy utilisation. Results suggest that total ope...

  19. Short-term variability of CYG X-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oda, M.; Doi, K.; Ogawara, Y.; Takagishi, K.; Wada, M.

    1975-01-01

    The short-term X-ray variability distinguishes Cyg X-1, which is the most likely candidate of the black hole, from other X-ray sources. Present status of our knowledge on this short-term variation mainly from the Uhuru, the MIT and the GSFC observations is reviewed. The nature of impulsive variations which compose the time variation exceeding the statistical fluctuation is discussed. There are indications that the energy spectrum of large pulses is harder than the average spectrum or the large pulses are the characteristics of the hard component of the spectrum if it is composed of two, soft and hard, components. Features of the variations may be partly simulated by the superposition of random short-noise pulses with a fraction of a second duration. However, the autocorrelation analysis and the dynamic spectrum analysis indicate that the correlation lasts for several seconds and in the variation buried are some regularities which exhibit power concentrations in several frequency bands; 0.2 -- 0.3, 0.4 -- 0.5, 0.8, 1.2 -- 1.5 Hz. There are several possible interpretation of these results in terms of: e.g. a) a mixture of short-noise pulses with two or more constant durations, b) the shape of the basic shot-noise pulse, c) bunching of the pulses, d) superposition of wave-packets or temporal oscillations. But we have not yet reached any definite understandings in the nature of the variabilities. The sub-structure of the fluctuations on a time scale of milli-second suggested by two investigations is also discussed. (auth.)

  20. Opening remarks for a panel discussion on short-term vs long-term procurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Courtenay, R.H.

    1990-01-01

    Long-term contracting in the late 1970's and early 1980's is blamed for some of the inequities that plague the uranium industry today. Utilities are obliged to pay prices far above prevailing levels and relatively low cost producers are forced to shut down while watching less efficient suppliers stay in business thanks to their long term supply agreements. Furthermore, it is argued that long-term contracts have contributed to supply instability by forcing the buildup of surplus inventories and by supporting excess incremental production by suppliers who have a baseload of long-term contracts. The depressed prices resulting from this oversupply are in turn jeopardizing future resource development and damaging supply reliability. In summary, the author's argument is that supply reliability will be greatly enhanced by the assurance of adequate primary supply from traditional sources such as Canada. This will not happen without long-term contracts. This conclusion may not be expected coming from a representative of Canada's largest uranium producer. But the final comment is less self serving. Many of the critics of long term contracts apparently expect a continuing and plentiful supply of East Bloc uranium to the spot market. A further question is to what extent East Bloc suppliers will eventually require long-term contracts in order to maintain production facilitates in economies that are no longer centrally planned, and where there is open competition for capital. Ultimately, reliability of supply from the non-traditional suppliers may also depend on long-term contracts

  1. Policy implications of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010, 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The paper summarizes the 1993 edition of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, and presents the implications of the projection that are important for GRI research and development planning and the gas industry. The survey of supply and demand considerations is followed by a breakdown of energy demand by type of fuel, by consumption sector, and by service application. Gas supply and prices are analyzed in terms of two scenarios: a constrained energy demand scenario, and an optimistic scenario. Tables and charts accompany the summary

  2. What are the differences between long-term, short-term, and working memory?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    In the recent literature there has been considerable confusion about the three types of memory: long-term, short-term, and working memory. This chapter strives to reduce that confusion and makes up-to-date assessments of these types of memory. Long- and short-term memory could differ in two fundamental ways, with only short-term memory demonstrating (1) temporal decay and (2) chunk capacity limits. Both properties of short-term memory are still controversial but the current literature is rather encouraging regarding the existence of both decay and capacity limits. Working memory has been conceived and defined in three different, slightly discrepant ways: as short-term memory applied to cognitive tasks, as a multi-component system that holds and manipulates information in short-term memory, and as the use of attention to manage short-term memory. Regardless of the definition, there are some measures of memory in the short term that seem routine and do not correlate well with cognitive aptitudes and other measures (those usually identified with the term "working memory") that seem more attention demanding and do correlate well with these aptitudes. The evidence is evaluated and placed within a theoretical framework depicted in Fig. 1.

  3. Perspectives of energy supply in unified Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gieske, F.

    1991-01-01

    This article deals with the role of the various energy carriers within a future energy concept. The energy supply industry aims at a well-balanced energy mixture which is to include nuclear energy as well as domestic and imported coal. The supply industry will not turn a deaf ear to opening up the competitive scene, the author thinks, however, there well have to be special economic and technical preconditions. (orig.) [de

  4. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

  5. Energy and Competitiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Bureau , Dominique; Fontagné , Lionel; Martin , Philippe

    2013-01-01

    When energy prices are expected to rise over the next twenty years, it is essential that industrial innovation efforts and the supply of goods and service off erings be directed towards energy-efficient technologies. However, a more significant increase in energy prices in France than in other countries would be detrimental to the short-term competitiveness of French industry. The present Note outlines the terms of the trade-off France has to confront between reserving a significant part of i...

  6. Fiscal 1999 survey report on long-term energy technological strategies and the like. Long-term energy technological strategy survey (Medium-term energy technological strategy survey); 1999 nendo choki energy gijutsu senryaku nado ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. Choki energy gijutsu senryaku chosa (chuki energy gijutsu senryaku chosa)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    Energy strategies to be implemented under the New Sunshine Program by around 2010 have been compiled, with nation's industrial technological strategies, long-term energy outlook, and the like taken into consideration. The present survey aims to work out medium-term energy technological strategies. In Chapter 2, by conducting studies on the state of energy strategies in the national industry technological strategies as primarily compiled, long-term energy supply and demand outlook, and the history so far of the New Sunshine Program, and social conditions surrounding energy/environmental technologies and energy conditions are arranged in order and then analyzed with a view to deriving social needs. In Chapter 3, in view of the derived social needs, medium-term energy technological strategies are broken down into strategic target details, based on the important regions and major and minor strategic targets of the national industry technological strategies. In Chapter 4, medium-term energy technological strategies are worked out. In Chapter 5, 'basic ideas,' 'measures for promoting technology development,' 'return of the fruits to society' are mentioned as the methods of realizing the strategies. In Chapter 6, surveys and researches are summarized, and future development is predicted. (NEDO)

  7. New Industrial Park Energy Supply (NIPES): a method of efficiently supplying energy to a community of industrial users

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-08-01

    The New Industrial Park Energy Supply (NIPES) concept allows the use of coal by small as well as large industrial users. The NIPES concept consists of a system of Energy Supply Stations groups of cogeneration plants) and steam transmission lines that supplies process heat and electricity to multiple existing and/or new users in an industrial park(s) setting. The Energy Supply Stations grow along with the industrial park(s) as new industries are attracted by a reliable reasonably priced energy source. The growth of the Energy Supply Stations over a period of years allows the introduction of new energy sources and technologies as they become established. This report describes the generic NIPES concept and the results of the evaluation of a specific NIPES system for the Lake Charles, Louisiana, area. A ten-year process steam load growth scenario is developed including both new and existing industrial users. During the initial years of the growth scenario, process steam is supplied to the industrial users by several coal-fired plants. Later, as the process steam load develops, a two-unit nuclear plant is integrated into the specific NIPES system. An evaluation is also performed for a NIPES system consisting of all coal-fired plants. The specific NIPES system is compared to: (1) individual user owned oil-fired facilities for existing industrial users; and (2) individual user owned coal-fired facilities for new industrial plants. A financial analysis is performed to determine the total economic advantages associated with the NIPES system: savings in a steam costs for industrial users, potential return on investment for investors

  8. New Industrial Park Energy Supply (NIPES): a method of efficiently supplying energy to a community of industrial users

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1984-08-01

    The New Industrial Park Energy Supply (NIPES) concept allows the use of coal by small as well as large industrial users. The NIPES concept consists of a system of Energy Supply Stations groups of cogeneration plants) and steam transmission lines that supplies process heat and electricity to multiple existing and/or new users in an industrial park(s) setting. The Energy Supply Stations grow along with the industrial park(s) as new industries are attracted by a reliable reasonably priced energy source. The growth of the Energy Supply Stations over a period of years allows the introduction of new energy sources and technologies as they become established. This report describes the generic NIPES concept and the results of the evaluation of a specific NIPES system for the Lake Charles, Louisiana, area. A ten-year process steam load growth scenario is developed including both new and existing industrial users. During the initial years of the growth scenario, process steam is supplied to the industrial users by several coal-fired plants. Later, as the process steam load develops, a two-unit nuclear plant is integrated into the specific NIPES system. An evaluation is also performed for a NIPES system consisting of all coal-fired plants. The specific NIPES system is compared to: (1) individual user owned oil-fired facilities for existing industrial users; and (2) individual user owned coal-fired facilities for new industrial plants. A financial analysis is performed to determine the total economic advantages associated with the NIPES system: savings in a steam costs for industrial users, potential return on investment for investors.

  9. On the way towards smart energy supply in cities: The impact of interconnecting geographically distributed district heating grids on the energy system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dominkovic, D. F.; Bačeković, I.; Sveinbjörnsson, D.

    2017-01-01

    assessed. Moreover, the impact of industrial waste heat on the DH supply was also assessed. In the reference year (2013) two out of four interconnections proved to be economically viable. The results for the future energy system (2029) showed that interconnecting geographically distributed DH grids reduces...... of the future energy supply system with interconnected DH grids and installed industrial waste heat recuperation results in the lowest primary energy demand, emissions and costs. Finally, the benefits of the interconnected DH grid, in terms of system flexibility, CO2 emissions, total costs and energy efficiency...... primary energy supply by 9.5%, CO2 emissions by 11.1% and total system costs by 6.3%. Inclusion of industrial waste heat in the fully interconnected DH grid reduced primary energy supply for an additional 3%, CO2 emissions for an additional 2.2% and total system costs for an additional 1.3%. The case...

  10. A comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emission control in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalaquazzaman, Mohammad

    2005-02-01

    This report presents a comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emissions projections from energy demand and supply sectors in Bangladesh covering the period 2000 to 2020. The study was conducted employing the IAEA's tool ENPEP- BALANCE model. This study presents a reliable energy system plan with minimal carbon emission for the country. Primary energy demands distributed by energy carriers and electricity demand have been projected based on macro-economic growth scenarios constructed for national energy policy of 1996. The conservation of indigenous energy resources was emphasized to build a long-term secured energy supply system. The potential energy supply options including nuclear energy and prospective greenhouse gas mitigation options were analyzed

  11. Development and supply of the world energy requirement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulz, E.

    1981-01-01

    Recently published research reveals that the world energy requirement can and must grow more slowly than previously anticipated. In order to supply developing nations with the energy necessary for the expansion of their economies, energy saving and oil substitution assume greater significance in the industrialised countries such as the Federal Republic. Future fulfillment of the world energy requirement will be characterised by escalating costs for supply, especially for the current main energy carrier oil, on the one hand and by increased use of coal and nuclear energy as well unconventional fossils such as regenerative energies on the other. Nuclear energy and thus the electricity economy must play a key function in the future energy supply of industrial nations such as Federal Germany. Nuclear energy enables, both directly and indirectly, the substitution of oil in the heat market, supplies the process heat required for coal production and, due to the ease of storage or uranium, provides a hedge against fluctuations on the world energy market. (orig.) [de

  12. Modelling the water energy nexus: should variability in water supply impact on decision making for future energy supply options?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. S. Cullis

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Many countries, like South Africa, Australia, India, China and the United States, are highly dependent on coal fired power stations for energy generation. These power stations require significant amounts of water, particularly when fitted with technology to reduce pollution and climate change impacts. As water resources come under stress it is important that spatial variability in water availability is taken into consideration for future energy planning particularly with regards to motivating for a switch from coal fired power stations to renewable technologies. This is particularly true in developing countries where there is a need for increased power production and associated increasing water demands for energy. Typically future energy supply options are modelled using a least cost optimization model such as TIMES that considers water supply as an input cost, but is generally constant for all technologies. Different energy technologies are located in different regions of the country with different levels of water availability and associated infrastructure development and supply costs. In this study we develop marginal cost curves for future water supply options in different regions of a country where different energy technologies are planned for development. These water supply cost curves are then used in an expanded version of the South Africa TIMES model called SATIM-W that explicitly models the water-energy nexus by taking into account the regional nature of water supply availability associated with different energy supply technologies. The results show a significant difference in the optimal future energy mix and in particular an increase in renewables and a demand for dry-cooling technologies that would not have been the case if the regional variability of water availability had not been taken into account. Choices in energy policy, such as the introduction of a carbon tax, will also significantly impact on future water resources, placing

  13. Modelling the water energy nexus: should variability in water supply impact on decision making for future energy supply options?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullis, James D. S.; Walker, Nicholas J.; Ahjum, Fadiel; Juan Rodriguez, Diego

    2018-02-01

    Many countries, like South Africa, Australia, India, China and the United States, are highly dependent on coal fired power stations for energy generation. These power stations require significant amounts of water, particularly when fitted with technology to reduce pollution and climate change impacts. As water resources come under stress it is important that spatial variability in water availability is taken into consideration for future energy planning particularly with regards to motivating for a switch from coal fired power stations to renewable technologies. This is particularly true in developing countries where there is a need for increased power production and associated increasing water demands for energy. Typically future energy supply options are modelled using a least cost optimization model such as TIMES that considers water supply as an input cost, but is generally constant for all technologies. Different energy technologies are located in different regions of the country with different levels of water availability and associated infrastructure development and supply costs. In this study we develop marginal cost curves for future water supply options in different regions of a country where different energy technologies are planned for development. These water supply cost curves are then used in an expanded version of the South Africa TIMES model called SATIM-W that explicitly models the water-energy nexus by taking into account the regional nature of water supply availability associated with different energy supply technologies. The results show a significant difference in the optimal future energy mix and in particular an increase in renewables and a demand for dry-cooling technologies that would not have been the case if the regional variability of water availability had not been taken into account. Choices in energy policy, such as the introduction of a carbon tax, will also significantly impact on future water resources, placing additional water

  14. Energy consumption in the food supply system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamp, Andreas; Østergård, Hanne; Hauggaard-Nielsen, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    Historically, productivity gains have been possible by the application of energy intensive technologies. In the future, new technologies and practices based on energy from renewable resources are central for the development of our food supply system and they will contribute in two different ways....... As the energy sector increasingly bases energy supply on renewable sources, the energy requirements of the food sector will automatically substitute renewable energy for non-renewable energy in all stages of food supply. In principle, the food sector does not need to change if renewable energy is sufficient...... and available as the energy carriers that we are used to today. We may think of this as passive adaptation. A passive adaptation strategy may support a development towards the image ‘high input – high output’. The food sector, however, may also actively adapt to a future without fossil fuels and change...

  15. Short-term marginal costs in French agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Latruffe, Laure; LETORT, Elodie

    2011-01-01

    The paper investigates short-term marginal costs in French agriculture for field cropping, beef cattle, and dairy farms during the period 1995-2006. The multi-input multi-output Symmetric Generalised MacFadden cost function is used, with three variable inputs (crop-specific, animal-specific, energy costs), four outputs and three quasi-fixed inputs. Results indicate that marginal costs are on average lower for crop farms than for livestock samples. However, for crop farms, Common Agricultural ...

  16. Short-term impacts of air pollutants in Switzerland: Preliminary scenario calculations for selected Swiss energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S; Keller, J [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    In the frame of the comprehensive assessment of Swiss energy systems, air quality simulations were performed by using a 3-dimensional photo-chemical dispersion model. The objective is to investigate the impacts of pollutants in Switzerland for future options of Swiss energy systems. Four scenarios were investigated: Base Case: simulations with the projected emissions for the year 2030, Scenario 1) all nuclear power plants were replaced by oil-driven combined cycle plants (CCP), Scenarios 2 to 4) traffic emissions were reduced in whole Switzerland as well as in the cities and on the highways separately. Changes in the pollutant concentrations and depositions, and the possible short-term impacts are discussed on the basis of exceedences of critical levels for plants and limits given to protect the public health. (author) 2 figs., 7 refs.

  17. Regionalized LCA-based optimization of building energy supply: method and case study for a Swiss municipality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saner, Dominik; Vadenbo, Carl; Steubing, Bernhard; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2014-07-01

    This paper presents a regionalized LCA-based multiobjective optimization model of building energy demand and supply for the case of a Swiss municipality for the minimization of greenhouse gas emissions and particulate matter formation. The results show that the environmental improvement potential is very large: in the optimal case, greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply could be reduced by more than 75% and particulate emissions by over 50% in the municipality. This scenario supposes a drastic shift of heat supply systems from a fossil fuel dominated portfolio to a portfolio consisting of mainly heat pump and woodchip incineration systems. In addition to a change in heat supply technologies, roofs, windows and walls would need to be refurbished in more than 65% of the municipality's buildings. The full potential of the environmental impact reductions will hardly be achieved in reality, particularly in the short term, for example, because of financial constraints and social acceptance, which were not taken into account in this study. Nevertheless, the results of the optimization model can help policy makers to identify the most effective measures for improvement at the decision making level, for example, at the building level for refurbishment and selection of heating systems or at the municipal level for designing district heating networks. Therefore, this work represents a starting point for designing effective incentives to reduce the environmental impact of buildings. While the results of the optimization model are specific to the municipality studied, the model could readily be adapted to other regions.

  18. The Demonstration of Short-Term Consolidation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolicoeur, Pierre; Dell'Acqua, Roberto

    1998-01-01

    Results of seven experiments involving 112 college students or staff using a dual-task approach provide evidence that encoding information into short-term memory involves a distinct process termed short-term consolidation (STC). Results suggest that STC has limited capacity and that it requires central processing mechanisms. (SLD)

  19. Development of compact rapid charging power supply for capacitive energy storage in pulsed power drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Surender Kumar; Shyam, Anurag

    2015-02-01

    High energy capacitor bank is used for primary electrical energy storage in pulsed power drivers. The capacitors used in these pulsed power drivers have low inductance, low internal resistance, and less dc life, so it has to be charged rapidly and immediately discharged into the load. A series resonant converter based 45 kV compact power supply is designed and developed for rapid charging of the capacitor bank with constant charging current up to 150 mA. It is short circuit proof, and zero current switching technique is used to commute the semiconductor switch. A high frequency resonant inverter switching at 10 kHz makes the overall size small and reduces the switching losses. The output current of the power supply is limited by constant on-time and variable frequency switching control technique. The power supply is tested by charging the 45 kV/1.67 μF and 15 kV/356 μF capacitor banks. It has charged the capacitor bank up to rated voltage with maximum charging current of 150 mA and the average charging rate of 3.4 kJ/s. The output current of the power supply is limited by reducing the switching frequency at 5 kHz, 3.3 kHz, and 1.7 kHz and tested with 45 kV/1.67 μF capacitor bank. The protection circuit is included in the power supply for over current, under voltage, and over temperature. The design details and the experimental testing results of the power supply for resonant current, output current, and voltage traces of the power supply with capacitive, resistive, and short circuited load are presented and discussed.

  20. Energy demand and supply in human skeletal muscle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, C J

    2017-04-01

    The energy required for muscle contraction is provided by the breakdown of ATP but the amount of ATP in muscles cells is sufficient to power only a short duration of contraction. Buffering of ATP by phosphocreatine, a reaction catalysed by creatine kinase, extends the duration of activity possible but sustained activity depends on continual regeneration of PCr. This is achieved using ATP generated by oxidative processes and, during intense activity, by anaerobic glycolysis. The rate of ATP breakdown ranges from 70 to 140 mM min -1 during isometric contractions of various intensity to as much as 400 mM min -1 during intense, dynamic activity. The maximum rate of oxidative energy supply in untrained people is ~50 mM min -1 which, if the contraction duty cycle is 0.5 as is often the case in cyclic activity, is sufficient to match an ATP breakdown rate during contraction of 100 mM min -1 . During brief, intense activity the rate of ATP turnover can exceed the rates of PCr regeneration by combined oxidative and glycolytic energy supply, resulting in a net decrease in PCr concentration. Glycolysis has the capacity to produce between 30 and 50 mM of ATP so that, for example, anaerobic glycolysis could provide ATP at an average of 100 mM min -1 over 30 s of exhausting activity. The creatine kinase reaction plays an important role not only in buffering ATP but also in communicating energy demand from sites of ATP breakdown to the mitochondria. In that role, creatine kinases acts to slow and attenuate the response of mitochondria to changes in energy demand.

  1. Balancing the supply mix to meet tomorrow's energy needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiggin, M.

    2004-01-01

    This presentation emphasized the need to balance the power supply mix to ensure future energy needs. A balanced supply includes generation supply options that include renewable energy sources, natural gas, oil or coal. The role of combined heat and power (CHP) and district energy in this supply mix is considered to be a potential generation solution. The challenge facing Ontario's Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO) is to balance supply and demand, phase out coal, promote renewables, diminish demand and determine the new role for natural gas. A graph by the National Energy Board depicting Canada's energy future and scenarios for supply and demand to 2025 indicates that gas yields from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin are declining. It is expected that with growing demands for natural gas, prices will remain high and there will be a need for new generation capacity. The viable options for energy supply include a re-examination of the district energy advantage through industrial waste heat, biomass and other renewables, and the integration of industrial and community energy systems. Other options include the continued recognition of distributed generation in the form of combined heat and power. 4 figs

  2. Storm impacts on a high energy sandy beach system, northwest Ireland: short (event) to long term (decadal) behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew; O'Connor, Marianne

    2017-04-01

    Long-term monitoring of beach dynamics is an important element in risk prevention and management of both natural and human resources at the coast. The predicted intensification in storminess (frequency, duration and magnitude), partly associated with climate change, represents a pressing concern for coastal communities globally and has undoubtedly led to an improvement in available techniques and technologies for observation and analysis. Here we examine a high energy Atlantic beach system at Five Fingers strand (NW Ireland) to help understand hydrodynamic forcing on beach response under various wave energy scenarios. The system, which has been modally attuned to a large swell wave environment, periodically undergoes significant morphological changes over various spatial and temporal scales manifest in the development and movements of dynamic nearshore bars and a nearshore ebb-tide delta. A combination of field and laboratory techniques (GPS, Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) Instrumentation, Drone surveys) implemented from the shoreface to the beach, captures the response and evolution of the system over the short (event), medium (weeks to months) and long-term (multiyear) timescale. Numerical modelling of nearshore wave hydrodynamics (using SWAN wave simulation model) helps understanding wave forcing across shoreface area and is ran under a number of iterative time intervals. Here, we investigate the role of infrequent and sometimes extreme events in the system to understand the importance of clustering of storminess and the occurrence of single high-magnitude storm events that perturb the inlet-beach system and thus induce key morphodynamic changes. Preliminary results show that ultimately the configuration of the ebb-tide channel influences the geomorphic response of the system. In the short term, a storm induced erosion of the shoreface is observed, which also appears to lead to changes in the ebb-tide channel, and ultimately the welding of a nearshore bar

  3. Altered Appetite-Mediating Hormone Concentrations Precede Compensatory Overeating After Severe, Short-Term Energy Deprivation in Healthy Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Kristie L; Scisco, Jenna L; Smith, Tracey J; Young, Andrew J; Montain, Scott J; Price, Lori Lyn; Lieberman, Harris R; Karl, J Philip

    2016-02-01

    Adaptive responses of appetite-mediating hormones to negative energy balance are thought to contribute to a counterregulatory response that drives weight regain, but they have not been studied while controlling for reduced diet volume. In this secondary analysis, we aimed to determine the effects of short-term, severe energy deprivation (ED) on appetite and appetite-mediating hormone concentrations. Twenty-one adults with a mean ± SD age of 21 ± 3 y and body mass index of 25 ± 3 kg/m(2) consumed isovolumetric diets provided over separate 48-h periods while increasing habitual energy expenditure by 1683 ± 329 kcal/d through light- and moderate-intensity exercise. Energy intake was matched to energy expenditure to maintain energy balance (EB) (-44 ± 92 kcal/d) or was overeating, suggesting that in adults without obesity, altered sensitivity to appetite-mediating hormones may contribute to an adaptive counterregulatory response during the initial stages of negative EB. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01603550. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

  4. Distribution strategy of energy supply chain based on corporate social responsibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Qiaona

    2018-02-01

    From corporate social responsibilities influence on the consumer`s preferences, applying the basic Idea of game theory, the study on tactics of profit distribution of the one-period game between manufacturer and vendor in energy supply chain,then the repetitive game results of the two partners are discussed. The results show that alliance pricing is the unique nash equilibrium of the one-period game between manufacturer and vendor,and the expect profit of both manufacturer and vendor will increase after cooperation in the range of agreed value of the profit distribution factor. It`s optimal for manufacturer and vendor to insist on alliance pricing for their long-term benefits in energy supply chain.

  5. A valuation study of fuel supply stability of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagano, Koji; Nagata, Yutaka; Hitomi, Kazumi; Hamagata, Sumio; Asaoka, Yoshiyuki

    2008-01-01

    In order to assess potential benefits of nuclear power with regard to its characteristics of fuel supply stability, the following three aspects are valuated under the Japanese energy and electricity mix: a) economic stability; i.e. nuclear power's contribution to the whole energy and electricity mix in terms of resistance to fluctuation and/or fuel price hikes, b) procurement stability; i.e. natural uranium, the raw fuel material for nuclear power generation, is being imported from more reliable sources through adequately diverse markets than in the cases of oil and natural gas, and, c) passive reserve effect; i.e. fuel materials as running stocks at power stations and fuel service facilities could maintain nuclear power generation running for a certain duration under unexpected disruption of fuel supply. (author)

  6. What are the differences between long-term, short-term, and working memory?

    OpenAIRE

    Cowan, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    In the recent literature there has been considerable confusion about the three types of memory: long-term, short-term, and working memory. This chapter strives to reduce that confusion and makes up-to-date assessments of these types of memory. Long- and short-term memory could differ in two fundamental ways, with only short-term memory demonstrating (1) temporal decay and (2) chunk capacity limits. Both properties of short-term memory are still controversial but the current literature is rath...

  7. Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Using the Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization Based Hybrid Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Yeau Chang

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available High penetration of wind power in the electricity system provides many challenges to power system operators, mainly due to the unpredictability and variability of wind power generation. Although wind energy may not be dispatched, an accurate forecasting method of wind speed and power generation can help power system operators reduce the risk of an unreliable electricity supply. This paper proposes an enhanced particle swarm optimization (EPSO based hybrid forecasting method for short-term wind power forecasting. The hybrid forecasting method combines the persistence method, the back propagation neural network, and the radial basis function (RBF neural network. The EPSO algorithm is employed to optimize the weight coefficients in the hybrid forecasting method. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the method is tested on the practical information of wind power generation of a wind energy conversion system (WECS installed on the Taichung coast of Taiwan. Comparisons of forecasting performance are made with the individual forecasting methods. Good agreements between the realistic values and forecasting values are obtained; the test results show the proposed forecasting method is accurate and reliable.

  8. Outlook for electricity markets 2005-2006 : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-06-01

    The National Energy Board monitors the supply of electricity as well as its demand in both domestic and export markets. This document was produced in response to a survey with power generation, transmission and distribution companies, marketers, end-users, environmental groups and government agencies who demonstrated the need for more short-and medium-term energy market assessments to supplement the Board's longer term energy analysis. It on the short-term (2005-2006) issues that can have a long-term effect on the electricity sector. The document presents an analysis of Canadian electricity markets with particular focus on the main drivers affecting current trends in generation, demand, prices, infrastructure additions, and inter-regional and international trade. Current restructuring activities in Canada's electricity industry were also described along with the close relationship between the electricity sectors in Canada and the United States which stems from the integrated nature of the North American power grid. A regional market assessment and a summary was provided for each of Canada's provinces and territories with reference to market structure and current market developments. It was revealed that Canada's electricity markets have developed along provincial or regional boundaries. Utilities have tried to provide adequate and reliable electricity supply, environmental sustainability and acceptable electricity prices. It was concluded that supply is adequate in all regions in the short-term, but tight supply conditions could emerge as early as 2007. Alternative and renewable resource and demand management are becoming more important in addressing air quality issues and supply adequacy. Since uncertainty may delay investment and development of new infrastructure, utilities may be forced to increase electricity prices. It was suggested that interprovincial energy transfers should be further explored. Five recommendations were presented to address the key

  9. Perspectives of energy supply. Possibilities for restructuring the energy supply of Baden-Wuerttemberg with special regard to power supply. Materials volume 9. Economic and ecological aspects of energy consumption. Perspektiven der Energieversorgung. Moeglichkeiten der Umstrukturierung der Energieversorgung Baden-Wuerttembergs unter besonderer Beruecksichtigung der Stromversorgung. Materialienband 9. Wirtschaftliche und oekologische Aspekte der Energienutzung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voss, A; Fiedler, F; Luhmann, H J

    1987-01-01

    The accident of Chernobyl certainly is a good reason to make once more a critical and very thorough review of the part nuclear energy will play in future in the supply of energy. The government of the Land Baden-Wuerttemberg commissioned an expert opinion in the summer of 1986 with the following intentions: To make a comprehensive analysis of ways technically feasible to safeguard the energy supply of Baden-Wuerttemberg in the long term, evaluate these as to their ecological, economic, and social repercussions, and to investigate in particular whether, to what extent and by what steps nuclear energy use can be made superfluous and what consequences this will entail. Building on the current state of knowledge, the expert opinion is to provide the basic data for weighing the benefits and risks of different technically feasible forms that the energy supply of Baden-Wuerttemberg may take in future. This publication presents the results of more than a year's intensive research work. This volume contains the complete scientific data of the sub-project 'Scenario of Energy Consumption and Energy Supply in Baden-Wuerttemberg'. The summarizing final report indicates the position of this sub-project within the overall problem.

  10. Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    How much oil will the world consume in 2012? What role will OPEC play in global oil production? Will biofuels become an important part of the oil market? How will the refinery sector cope? The International Energy Agency (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report tackles these questions, adopting a perspective that goes beyond the traditional short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. Drawing on current futures curves and the investment threshold for upstream projects, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report analyses how global demand and supply balances may develop. By assessing all firmly planned upstream and downstream projects worldwide, this report forecasts supply and demand potential for crude and petroleum products over the next five years. The results provide an invaluable insight into vital issues such as surplus production capacity and product supply. An essential report for all policymakers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

  11. Fiscal 1999 survey report on long-term energy technological strategies and the like. Long-term energy technological strategy survey (Medium-term energy technological strategy survey); 1999 nendo choki energy gijutsu senryaku nado ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. Choki energy gijutsu senryaku chosa (chuki energy gijutsu senryaku chosa)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    Energy strategies to be implemented under the New Sunshine Program by around 2010 have been compiled, with nation's industrial technological strategies, long-term energy outlook, and the like taken into consideration. The present survey aims to work out medium-term energy technological strategies. In Chapter 2, by conducting studies on the state of energy strategies in the national industry technological strategies as primarily compiled, long-term energy supply and demand outlook, and the history so far of the New Sunshine Program, and social conditions surrounding energy/environmental technologies and energy conditions are arranged in order and then analyzed with a view to deriving social needs. In Chapter 3, in view of the derived social needs, medium-term energy technological strategies are broken down into strategic target details, based on the important regions and major and minor strategic targets of the national industry technological strategies. In Chapter 4, medium-term energy technological strategies are worked out. In Chapter 5, 'basic ideas,' 'measures for promoting technology development,' 'return of the fruits to society' are mentioned as the methods of realizing the strategies. In Chapter 6, surveys and researches are summarized, and future development is predicted. (NEDO)

  12. Short-term memory across eye blinks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, David E

    2014-01-01

    The effect of eye blinks on short-term memory was examined in two experiments. On each trial, participants viewed an initial display of coloured, oriented lines, then after a retention interval they viewed a test display that was either identical or different by one feature. Participants kept their eyes open throughout the retention interval on some blocks of trials, whereas on others they made a single eye blink. Accuracy was measured as a function of the number of items in the display to determine the capacity of short-term memory on blink and no-blink trials. In separate blocks of trials participants were instructed to remember colour only, orientation only, or both colour and orientation. Eye blinks reduced short-term memory capacity by approximately 0.6-0.8 items for both feature and conjunction stimuli. A third, control, experiment showed that a button press during the retention interval had no effect on short-term memory capacity, indicating that the effect of an eye blink was not due to general motoric dual-task interference. Eye blinks might instead reduce short-term memory capacity by interfering with attention-based rehearsal processes.

  13. Short-term memory and dual task performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, J. E.

    1982-01-01

    Two hypotheses concerning the way in which short-term memory interacts with another task in a dual task situation are considered. It is noted that when two tasks are combined, the activity of controlling and organizing performance on both tasks simultaneously may compete with either task for a resource; this resource may be space in a central mechanism or general processing capacity or it may be some task-specific resource. If a special relationship exists between short-term memory and control, especially if there is an identity relationship between short-term and a central controlling mechanism, then short-term memory performance should show a decrement in a dual task situation. Even if short-term memory does not have any particular identity with a controlling mechanism, but both tasks draw on some common resource or resources, then a tradeoff between the two tasks in allocating resources is possible and could be reflected in performance. The persistent concurrence cost in memory performance in these experiments suggests that short-term memory may have a unique status in the information processing system.

  14. Frameworks and communication: perspectives in tackling the climate change challenge for energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenstra, W.J.; Engelenburg, B.C.W. van; Grootveld, G. van

    1999-01-01

    Energy supply is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. In the long term these emissions will have to be greatly reduced (especially in the industrialised countries where reductions on the order of 50-80% will be needed) in order to stabilise the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Such a reduction is very ambitious and given the inertia of the energy supply system, the path to this goal should preferably be set out immediately. The perspective for thinking about this problem is sustainable development. We will elaborate on the perspective starting from the positive results of the Netherlands governmental research programme on sustainable technological development. The resulting approach or method of this programme can be summarised in five golden rules, which will be explained. The core of the method is the development of a vision regarding a sustainable future. In our case this vision is based on a step-by-step approach towards a climate neutral and possibly renewable energy supply. The costs for emission abatement are assumed to increase in each step. For each step we will present a general picture of the expected changes in the supply system. Such a picture is not the only conceivable reality for energy supply but is an indicative framework. These frameworks are useful tools to structure the discussion about the future of energy supply. We will show that the vision not only leads to drawing general conclusion but also has led to a real project which deals with the development of technologies to produce climate neutral energy-carriers. (Author)

  15. Simulation of demand side participation in Spanish short term electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valencia-Salazar, I.; Alvarez, C.; Escriva-Escriva, G.; Alcazar-Ortega, M.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Benefits from customer active participation can be obtained with a proper generation of bids and offers. → Simulation of Spanish customers' participation is shown in daily, intra-daily and balancing markets. → Market efficiency and economics profits arise in balancing markets by using customer load reductions. → Real market prices and real customers' consumptions profiles are used in the simulations. -- Abstract: Demand response resources management is one of the most investigated solutions oriented to improve the efficiency in electricity markets. In this paper, the capability of customers to participate in short term markets is analyzed. An available methodology to analyze the daily and monthly energy consumptions of large customers is used to create energy offers and bids. This allows customers to participate in energy markets in order to buy, as first step, the usual electricity consumption and, additionally, to offer demand reductions in the short term electricity markets. Additionally, this paper shows the customer potential to participate in the Spanish electricity markets.

  16. Energy Storage on the Grid and the Short-term Variability of Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hittinger, Eric Stephen

    profitability of wind farms. We find that market scenarios using existing price signals to motivate wind to reduce variability allow wind generators to participate in variability reduction when the market conditions are favorable, and can reduce short-term (30-minute) fluctuations while having little effect on wind farm revenue.

  17. Risk Analysis of Reservoir Operations Considering Short-Term Flood Control and Long-Term Water Supply: A Case Study for the Da-Han Creek Basin in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Ming Cheng

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study applies an integrated methodology to assess short-term over-levee risk and long-term water shortage risk in the Da-Han Creek basin, which is the most important flood control and water storage system in northern Taiwan. An optimization model for reservoir flood control and water supply is adopted, to determine reservoir releases based on synthetic inflow hydrographs during typhoons, which are generated by Monte Carlo simulations. The release is then used to calculate the water level at a downstream control point using a novel developed back-propagation neural network-based model, to reduce computational complexity and achieve automatic-efficient risk evaluation. The calculated downstream water levels and final reservoir water levels after a typhoon event are used to evaluate the mapped over-levee risk and water shortage risk, respectively. The results showed that the different upper limit settings for the reservoir have a significant influence on the variation of 1.19 × 10−5% to 75.6% of the water shortage risk. This occurs because of the insufficient inflow and narrow storage capacity of the Shih-Men Reservoir during drought periods. However, the upper limit settings have a minor influence (with a variation of only 0.149% to 0.157% on the over-levee risk in typhoon periods, because of the high protection standards for the downstream embankment.

  18. Effective electrical energy policies in terms of DSM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Hyunah

    2010-09-15

    This paper investigates how well energy policies are adopted and operated. In terms of DSM or the Demand Side Management, ways of modifying energy demand are introduced. Also their effects are showed. Furthermore future plans of DSM are illustrated shortly.

  19. Supplementing an energy adequate, higher protein diet with protein does not enhance fat-free mass restoration after short-term severe negative energy balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berryman, C E; Sepowitz, J J; McClung, H L; Lieberman, H R; Farina, E K; McClung, J P; Ferrando, A A; Pasiakos, S M

    2017-06-01

    Negative energy balance during military operations can be severe and result in significant reductions in fat-free mass (FFM). Consuming supplemental high-quality protein following such military operations may accelerate restoration of FFM. Body composition (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry) and whole body protein turnover (single-pool [ 15 N]alanine method) were determined before (PRE) and after 7 days (POST) of severe negative energy balance during military training in 63 male US Marines (means ± SD, 25 ± 3 yr, 84 ± 9 kg). After POST measures were collected, volunteers were randomized to receive higher protein (HIGH: 1,103 kcal/day, 133 g protein/day), moderate protein (MOD: 974 kcal/day, 84 g protein/day), or carbohydrate-based low protein control (CON: 1,042 kcal/day, 7 g protein/day) supplements, in addition to a self-selected, ad libitum diet, for the 27-day intervention (REFED). Measurements were repeated POST-REFED. POST total body mass (TBM; -5.8 ± 1.0 kg, -7.0%), FFM (-3.1 ± 1.6 kg, -4.7%), and net protein balance (-1.7 ± 1.1 g protein·kg -1 ·day -1 ) were lower and proteolysis (1.1 ± 1.9 g protein·kg -1 ·day -1 ) was higher compared with PRE ( P energy (4,498 ± 725 kcal/day). All volunteers, independent of group assignment, achieved positive net protein balance (0.4 ± 1.0 g protein·kg -1 ·day -1 ) and gained TBM (5.9 ± 1.7 kg, 7.8%) and FFM (3.6 ± 1.8 kg, 5.7%) POST-REFED compared with POST ( P energy-adequate, higher protein diets with additional protein may not be necessary to restore FFM after short-term severe negative energy balance. NEW & NOTEWORTHY This article demonstrates 1 ) the majority of physiological decrements incurred during military training (e.g., total and fat-free mass loss), with the exception of net protein balance, resolve and return to pretraining values after 27 days and 2 ) protein supplementation, in addition to an ad libitum, higher protein (~2.0 g·kg -1 ·day -1 ), energy adequate diet, is not necessary to

  20. Changing landscape for North American supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deegan, J.

    2005-01-01

    The United States represents 29 per cent of world natural gas consumption but holds 5 per cent of world natural gas resources. Supply and demand balances in the United States were examined in this PowerPoint presentation. Issues concerning market considerations and the Energy Policy Act were reviewed. The impacts of hurricanes were assessed and the U.S. supply and demand balance for the winter of 2004-2005 was considered. Growing producer expenditures were reviewed, and average finding and development cost increases were presented. New supply sources were examined, and details of expected major domestic supply contributors by 2010 were presented by region. It was suggested that unconventional sources will play a greater role in U.S. natural gas supply, and that liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be needed to attract resources within the world market. Increased regulatory certainty and supply flexibility is essential to economical supply development decisions. Issues concerning the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's role in LNG terminal siting were examined. Permits, taxes and royalty incentives for deep water exploration were discussed. It was suggested that the Energy Policy Act falls short on increasing access to new supply. It was observed that traditional North American producing areas will provide only 75 per cent of long-term U.S. needs. Access to multi-use, non-park, non-wilderness federal lands for gas exploration will be needed. It was concluded that non-conventional resources are more costly and face greater public resistance than conventional resource plays. tabs., figs

  1. Changing landscape for North American supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deegan, J. [Natural Gas Supply Association, Washington DC (United States)

    2005-07-01

    The United States represents 29 per cent of world natural gas consumption but holds 5 per cent of world natural gas resources. Supply and demand balances in the United States were examined in this PowerPoint presentation. Issues concerning market considerations and the Energy Policy Act were reviewed. The impacts of hurricanes were assessed and the U.S. supply and demand balance for the winter of 2004-2005 was considered. Growing producer expenditures were reviewed, and average finding and development cost increases were presented. New supply sources were examined, and details of expected major domestic supply contributors by 2010 were presented by region. It was suggested that unconventional sources will play a greater role in U.S. natural gas supply, and that liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be needed to attract resources within the world market. Increased regulatory certainty and supply flexibility is essential to economical supply development decisions. Issues concerning the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's role in LNG terminal siting were examined. Permits, taxes and royalty incentives for deep water exploration were discussed. It was suggested that the Energy Policy Act falls short on increasing access to new supply. It was observed that traditional North American producing areas will provide only 75 per cent of long-term U.S. needs. Access to multi-use, non-park, non-wilderness federal lands for gas exploration will be needed. It was concluded that non-conventional resources are more costly and face greater public resistance than conventional resource plays. tabs., figs.

  2. Modelling the long-run supply of coal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steenblik, R.P.

    1992-01-01

    There are many issues facing policy-makers in the fields of energy and the environment that require knowledge of coal supply and cost. Such questions arise in relation to decisions concerning, for example, the discontinuation of subsidies, or the effects of new environmental laws. The very complexity of these questions makes them suitable for analysis by models. Indeed, models have been used for analysing the behaviour of coal markets and the effects of public policies on them for many years. For estimating short-term responses econometric models are the most suitable. For estimating the supply of coal over the longer term, however - i.e., coal that would come from mines as yet not developed - depletion has to be taken into account. Underlying the normal supply curve relating cost to the rate of production is a curve that increases with cumulative production - what mineral economists refer to as the potential supply curve. To derive such a curve requires at some point in the analysis using process-oriented modelling techniques. Because coal supply curves can convey so succinctly information about the resource's long-run supply potential and costs, they have been influential in several major public debates on energy policy. And, within the coal industry itself, they have proved to be powerful tools for undertaking market research and long-range planning. The purpose of this paper is to describe in brief the various approaches that have been used to model long-run coal supply, to highlight their strengths, and to identify areas in which further progress is needed. (author)

  3. Short-rotation forestry for energy production in Hawaii

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, V.C.; Liu, W. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States); Merriam, R.A.

    1993-12-31

    In Hawaii, imports of fossil fuels continue to accelerate and now provide over 90% of the total energy supply at a cost exceeding $1 {times} 10{sup 9} annually exported from the local economy. Concurrently, sugarcane and pineapple crops, the traditional mainstays of the state`s economy, have declined such that as much as 80,000 hectares of agricultural land are now available for alternative land uses. The feasibility of short-rotation forestry for sustainable energy production on these former sugarcane and pineapple plantation lands is being evaluated using species- and site-specific empirical models to predict yields of Eucalyptus grandis, E. saligna, and Leucaena leucocephala, a system model to estimate delivered costs, and a geographic information system to extend the analysis to areas where no field trials exist and to present results in map form. The island of Hawaii is showcased as an application of the methodology. Modeling results of methanol, ethanol, and electricity production from tropical hardwoods are presented. Short-rotation forestry appears to hold promise for the greening of Hawaii`s energy system and agricultural lands for the benefit of the state`s citizens and visitors. The methodology is readily transferable to other regions of the United States and rest of the world.

  4. Energy costs and Portland water supply system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, W.M.; Hawley, R.P.

    1981-10-01

    The changing role of electrical energy on the Portland, Oregon, municipal-water-supply system is presented. Portland's actions in energy conservation include improved operating procedures, pump modifications, and modifications to the water system to eliminate pumping. Portland is implementing a small hydroelectric project at existing water-supply dams to produce an additional source of power for the area. Special precautions in construction and operation are necessary to protect the high quality of the water supply. 2 references, 7 figures.

  5. False security: the effects of long-term oil supply disruptions in a slack oil market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kah, M; Kruvant, W J

    1984-01-01

    The authors contention that the US should continue to be concerned about energy emergency preparedness, in the event of a long-term disruption of oil supplies, despite current slack economic conditions on the international market is outlined. One quarter of the world's total supply still comes from politically volatile areas of North Africa and the Middle East, and although oil imports have fallen off, the US is still vulnerable.

  6. Short-term incentive schemes for hospital managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas Malambe

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: Short-term incentives, considered to be an extrinsic motivation, are commonly used to motivate performance. This study explored hospital managers’ perceptions of short term incentives in maximising performance and retention. Research purpose: The study explored the experiences, views and perceptions of private hospital managers in South Africa regarding the use of short-term incentives to maximise performance and retention, as well as the applicability of the findings to public hospitals. Motivation for the study: Whilst there is an established link between performance reward schemes and organisational performance, there is little understanding of the effects of short term incentives on the performance and retention of hospital managers within the South African context. Research design, approach, and method: The study used a qualitative research design: interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 19 hospital managers, and a thematic content analysis was performed. Main findings: Short-term incentives may not be the primary motivator for hospital managers, but they do play a critical role in sustaining motivation. Participants indicated that these schemes could also be applicable to public hospitals. Practical/managerial implications: Hospital managers are inclined to be more motivated by intrinsic than extrinsic factors. However, hospital managers (as middle managers also seem to be motivated by short-term incentives. A combination of intrinsic and extrinsic motivators should thus be used to maximise performance and retention. Contribution/value-add: Whilst the study sought to explore hospital managers’ perceptions of short-term incentives, it also found that an adequate balance between internal and external motivators is key to implementing an effective short-term incentive scheme.

  7. Short-Term Intercultural Psychotherapy: Ethnographic Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeley, Karen M.

    2004-01-01

    This article examines the challenges specific to short-term intercultural treatments and recently developed approaches to intercultural treatments based on notions of cultural knowledge and cultural competence. The article introduces alternative approaches to short-term intercultural treatments based on ethnographic inquiry adapted for clinical…

  8. Why do short term workers have high mortality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolstad, Henrik; Olsen, Jørn

    1999-01-01

    or violence, the rate ratios for short term employment were 2.30 (95% Cl 1.74-3.06) and 1.86 (95% Cl 1.35-2.56), respectively. An unhealthy lifestyle may also be a determinant of short term employment. While it is possible in principle to adjust for lifestyle factors if proper data are collected, the health......Increased mortality is often reported among workers in short term employment. This may indicate either a health-related selection process or the presence of different lifestyle or social conditions among short term workers. The authors studied these two aspects of short term employment among 16...

  9. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  10. The Energy Chart'93

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shervashidze, N.

    1993-01-01

    The Energy Chart'93 is developed with respect to forthcoming restructuring of energy sector in Bulgaria and contains its main directions for both short- and long-term periods. The priorities are given to: energy supply, stabilization of the existing units, ecological development, domestic energy sources, atomic energy, gas energy, utilization of the available hydrological potential. The leading role of legislation in this area is also pointed out, as well as the regulating function of the Committee of Energy. (author)

  11. Renewable energy sources in European energy supply and interactions with emission trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moest, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a model-based approach, which allows to determine the optimised structure and operation of the EU-15 electricity supply under different political and economic framework conditions, with a focus on the integration of renewable energy sources for electricity generation (RES-E) in the EU-15 countries. The approach is designed to take into account the characteristics of power production from both renewable and conventional sources, including the technological and economic characteristics of existing plants as well as those of future capacity expansion options. Beyond that, fuel supply structures are modelled, as well as the international markets for power and CO 2 -certificates with their restrictions. Thus, a profound evaluation of the exploitation of mid-term renewable potentials and an assessment of the market penetration of the various renewable power generation technologies under the (normative) premise of a cost-optimised evolution of the power system becomes possible. Results show that a promotion of renewable energies reduces the scarcity of CO 2 -emission allowances and thus lowers marginal costs of CO 2 reduction up to 30% in 2030. Despite the higher overall costs, a diversification of the energy resource base by RES-E use is observed, as primarily natural gas and nuclear fuels are replaced.

  12. Research on energy supply, demand and economy forecasting in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiba, Tsuyoshi; Kamezaki, Hiroshi; Yuyama, Tomonori; Suzuki, Atsushi

    1999-10-01

    This project aims to do research on forecasts of energy demand structure and electricity generation cost in each power plant in Japan in the 21st century, considering constructing successful FBR scenario. During the process of doing research on forecasts of energy demand structure in Japan, documents published from organizations in inside and outside of Japan were collected. These documents include prospects of economic growth rate, forecasts of amount for energy supply and demand, the maximum amount of introducing new energy resources, CO2 regulation, and evaluation of energy best mixture. Organizations in Japan such as Economic Council and Japan Energy Economic Research Institute have provided long-term forecasts until the early 21st century. Meanwhile, organizations overseas have provided forecasts of economic structure, and demand and supply for energy in OECD and East Asia including Japan. In connection with forecasts of electricity generation cost in each power plant, views on the ultimate reserves and cost of resources are reviewed in this report. According to some views on oil reserves, making assumptions based on reserves/production ratio, the maximum length of the time that oil reserves will last is 150 years. In addition, this report provides summaries of cost and potential role of various resources, including solar energy and wind energy; and views on waste, safety, energy security-related externality cost, and the price of transferring CO2 emission right. (author)

  13. Energy supply scenarios and sustainable development: A total view on economy and ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voss, A.

    2000-01-01

    'Sustainable development' is the guiding principle of the ecological, economic and development policy debate. Although the guiding principle of 'sustainable development' meets with unanimous approval as a general rule, there is a broad spectrum of views and interpretations of this guiding principle in terms of its normative and theoretical scientific basis as well as with regard to the aims and line of action to be taken. This applies especially to the energy sector. This lecture endeavours to concretise the guiding principle of 'sustainable development' for the energy sector, or to put in more exact terms, for the sector providing energy services. Major options for the supply of energy are classified and evaluated in terms of their importance for the sustainable provision of energy based on the results of a comprehensive review of materials and different types of energy. (orig.) [de

  14. Long-term trends in U.S. gas supply and prices: 1992 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1991-12-01

    The paper summarizes the gas supply outlook in the 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, which has been adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) 1993 research and development program. The 1992 projection presents the GRI planning outlook for the economic and the energy supply and demand situation to the year 2010. It was prepared independently by GRI using publicly available data and a framework of commercially available models that GRI has developed over several years. It is not derived from the views of GRI member companies. The 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. gas industry in which increased gas supply can be obtained at competitive prices. The gas prices in the 1992 projection support growth in all major U.S. gas supply sources: lower-48, Alaska, Canada, Mexico, and LNG. By about 2005, U.S. gas supply is at its highest level ever. By 2010, U.S. gas supply has grown to almost 25 quads. U.S. gas production increases 2.6 quads between 1990 and 2010; imports increase 2.2 quads. Although imports do not increase as much as U.S. gas production, they account for an increased share of U.S. gas supply. The import share grows from 7 percent to 12 percent over the projection period. Supplemental gas sources provide about 1 percent of U.S. gas supply

  15. National economic aspects of energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tschopp, P.

    1981-01-01

    The author discusses the economic place value of energy supply for production, the influence of energy on national economy structure and specialisation, cost/gain effects of alternative energy strategies, the effects of energy policy on the labour market, and the need for clearer aims in energy policy. (H.V.H.)

  16. The Comparison Study of Short-Term Prediction Methods to Enhance the Model Predictive Controller Applied to Microgrid Energy Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Hernández-Hernández

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Electricity load forecasting, optimal power system operation and energy management play key roles that can bring significant operational advantages to microgrids. This paper studies how methods based on time series and neural networks can be used to predict energy demand and production, allowing them to be combined with model predictive control. Comparisons of different prediction methods and different optimum energy distribution scenarios are provided, permitting us to determine when short-term energy prediction models should be used. The proposed prediction models in addition to the model predictive control strategy appear as a promising solution to energy management in microgrids. The controller has the task of performing the management of electricity purchase and sale to the power grid, maximizing the use of renewable energy sources and managing the use of the energy storage system. Simulations were performed with different weather conditions of solar irradiation. The obtained results are encouraging for future practical implementation.

  17. What scenario studies tell about security of energy supply in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lako, P.; Jansen, J.C.

    2001-06-01

    A technical fact-finding study on security of energy supply has been performed from the European point of view and from the point of view of the Netherlands. A brief assessment is presented of fossil fuel resources. Based on data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other literature, the reserves/production ratio of conventional and unconventional oil is estimated at approximately 200 years. Based on the same USGS data, the reserves/production ratio of conventional natural gas is estimated at 190 years. The unconventional gas resources are extremely large. However, environmental damage has to be prevented. The amount of recoverable resources will remain a question mark for the time being. The world's proved recoverable coal reserves amount to a reserves/production ratio of 230 years. All in all, oil remains a strategic fossil fuel, whereas the supply of natural gas seems to be more well-balanced and the supply of coal is more secure than both of oil and gas. The so-called Shared analysis project, performed by a number of research institutes in the EU, gives useful points of departure for energy policy formulation. However, the results of notably the reference scenario and to a lesser extent its variants in terms of primary energy use, CO2 emissions, and the EU's import dependence for fossil fuels have to be regarded carefully. A similar picture arises from IEA's World Energy Outlook 2000. The 'Out-look' gives due attention to OECD Europe's dependence on imported oil and gas. The share of oil imports is due to rise from 32% in 1990 to 80% in 2020. Due to a projected steady growth of gas consumption, import dependence with respect to natural gas is due to rise from 34% in 1997 to about 65% in 2020. In the scenarios developed by CPB, in collaboration with AVV, ECN, and RIVM, in 1997, the share of natural gas in total primary energy demand is projected to increase to 50-55% in all of the scenarios. In the most energy intensive scenarios, natural gas is

  18. Energy supply and environmental protection as conflicting targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier, G.

    1976-01-01

    The conflict between sufficient energy supply and efficient environmental protection is didactically analysed as a complex of topics for the political education. Education principles and sequencies basing on opinions of supporters and opponents of nuclear energy are shown. Aims of education are briefly shown with the examples of the energy supply of the FRG and the energy problems of Europe. (HP) [de

  19. Short-term outlook for Canadian crude oil to 2006 : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-09-01

    The National Energy Board monitors the supply of all energy commodities in Canada along with the demand for Canadian energy commodities in domestic and export markets. This report is intended to expand the effectiveness of the Board's monitoring activities by providing an assessment of the current state of the petroleum industry and the potential for growth. It provides an 18-month outlook on international and domestic crude oil prices; drilling and exploration activity; supply projections for Canadian crude oil and petroleum products; Canada's crude oil trade balance and markets for Canadian crude; existing export pipeline networks and project expansion plans; and, the Canadian petroleum products industry and the impact of higher prices. It also identifies the major issues and challenges associated with the development of Canada's crude oil. The 2 major oil producing areas in Canada are the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) including the oil sands, and offshore eastern Canada. While conventional production in the WCSB is declining, development focus has shifted to Alberta's oil sands as well as Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose, the 3 major oil fields offshore Newfoundland and Labrador. High energy prices have resulted in record profits for the Canadian oil and gas industry, and has stimulated billions of dollars in investment, with Alberta's oil sands being the main beneficiary. The 19 refineries in Canada have been operating at about 90 per cent capacity for the last several years due to strong demand for transportation fuels. 10 tabs., 37 figs., 2 appendices

  20. Trends in economic growth, poverty and energy in Colombia: long-run and short-run effects

    OpenAIRE

    Cotte Poveda, Alexander; Pardo Martínez, Clara

    2011-01-01

    This research analyses the long run and short run relationships among economic growth, poverty and energy using the Colombian case. In this study, we use the time-series methodologies. The results regarding the relationship among economic growth, poverty and energy show that increases in gross domestic product and energy supply per capita should lead a decrease of poverty, which should demonstrate that access to modern and adequate energy services help to decrease poverty and to increase econ...

  1. Experiment of Power Supply Method for WLAN Sensor Using Both Energy Harvesting and Microwave Power Transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakaguchi, K; Yamashita, S; Yamamoto, K; Nishio, T; Morikura, M; Huang, Y; Shinohara, N

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes to improve effectiveness of supplying a sensor with energy using microwave power transmission (MPT) and energy harvesting (EH). The MPT duration should be as short as possible to avoid serious interference between the MPT and wireless local area network data transmission when co-channel operation of both microwave power transmission (MPT) and wireless data transmissions is performed. To shorten the MPT duration, we use multiple power sources such as an MPT source and an EH source to supply a sensor with power. Here, an overcharge or an energy shortage could occur at the sensor if the power supplied by both the MPT and EH sources is not adjusted appropriately. To solve this problem, the power supplied by multiple sources should be estimated precisely. In this paper, we propose a scheme for estimating the power supplied by multiple sources on the basis of an existing MPT scheduling system and then conducted an experiment using the scheme. From the experimental results, it is confirmed to estimate the power supplied by multiple sources successfully. In addition, the required MPT duration when the EH source is used is reduced compared to that when it is not used. Moreover, it is confirmed that the sensor station successfully estimates the power supplied by an MPT source and that by an EH source and adequately configures the MPT duration

  2. Energy supply and energy policy in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiener, E.

    1985-01-01

    The article gives an outline of the problems of energy supply in Switzerland, with some emphasis upon the extent to which Federal and Cantonal constitutions and the functioning of Swiss democracy, notably the relatively frequent recourse to referendums and the strong public interest in conservation and ecology, affect the nature of decisions upon technical matters such as the authorisation and siting of generating plants and the construction of transmission lines. The dominating factor in the energy situation in Switzerland has been and will remain the need to import about 84% of the energy used, mainly in the form of oil, the cost of which is nearly 10% of the total value of all imports. Water power accounts for 13% of the total supply and is approaching the limit of its possible development. The use of energy constantly increases but the political difficulties in the way of providing the consequently necessary resources increase if anything still more rapidly. The resulting difficult situation is discussed in some detail. The author urges the energy industry to view its political difficulties in a positive manner, and to see them rather as a spur to effort than as merely an unwelcome obstacle to private enterprise. (C.J.O.G.)

  3. Supply and demand outlook for Japan's economic and energy up to FY2018

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoshima, Momoko; Yorita, Yasuo; Tsunoda, Miyuki

    2017-01-01

    Japan's economy has gradually expanded, with real GDP in the first quarter of 2017 becoming positive growth for five consecutive quarters for the first time since 2005 to 2006. Although the uncertain factors are increasing both in terms of politics and economy, the world economy is also growing moderately. As the main premises in the standard scenario, the following are supposed: (1) world economy grows moderately, with worldwide growth rate reaching 3.0% in FY2017 and 3.3% in FY2018, (2) exchange rate is about ¥115/$ in both FY2017 and FY2018 average, (3) as for nuclear power generation, cumulative restarted unit number reaches 10 basis until the end of FY2018, with average months of operation in FY2018 reaching 9 months, and with power generation amount reaching 65.6 billion kWh (7% of the power supply composition ratio), and (4) as for the supply and demand for power, the supply reserve ratio of 3% necessary for stable electric power supply can be secured nationwide. Thus, the supply and demand outlook for Japan's economic and energy up to FY2018 was made. The following various evaluation analyses were carried out: (1) macro economy, (2) production activities, (3) primary energy domestic supply, (4) final energy consumption, (5) electricity sales volume and power supply composition (electric power companies), (6) city gas sales volume (gas companies), fuel oil and LPG sales volume and crude oil throughput, and (7) in-depth analysis; demand trend of light oil, renewable energy power generation, and effects of restart of nuclear power plants. (A.O.)

  4. Supplying safety and energy independence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maillard, D.

    2001-03-01

    The french Observatory of the Energy wonders about the energy independence notion. Many risks are possible: physical, economical, geo-political, social and ecological risks. Because those risks are numerous, the answers for a supplying safety are also numerous. In this context the energy policy is a difficult art which the public opinion needs to be more and more aware. (A.L.B.)

  5. Short-term mechanisms influencing volumetric brain dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikki Dieleman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI and brain analysis tools, it has become possible to measure brain volume changes up to around 0.5%. Besides long-term brain changes caused by atrophy in aging or neurodegenerative disease, short-term mechanisms that influence brain volume may exist. When we focus on short-term changes of the brain, changes may be either physiological or pathological. As such determining the cause of volumetric dynamics of the brain is essential. Additionally for an accurate interpretation of longitudinal brain volume measures by means of neurodegeneration, knowledge about the short-term changes is needed. Therefore, in this review, we discuss the possible mechanisms influencing brain volumes on a short-term basis and set-out a framework of MRI techniques to be used for volumetric changes as well as the used analysis tools. 3D T1-weighted images are the images of choice when it comes to MRI of brain volume. These images are excellent to determine brain volume and can be used together with an analysis tool to determine the degree of volume change. Mechanisms that decrease global brain volume are: fluid restriction, evening MRI measurements, corticosteroids, antipsychotics and short-term effects of pathological processes like Alzheimer's disease, hypertension and Diabetes mellitus type II. Mechanisms increasing the brain volume include fluid intake, morning MRI measurements, surgical revascularization and probably medications like anti-inflammatory drugs and anti-hypertensive medication. Exercise was found to have no effect on brain volume on a short-term basis, which may imply that dehydration caused by exercise differs from dehydration by fluid restriction. In the upcoming years, attention should be directed towards studies investigating physiological short-term changes within the light of long-term pathological changes. Ultimately this may lead to a better understanding of the physiological short-term effects of

  6. Supply of biofuels in short term and long term; Utbudet av biobraenslen paa kort och laang sikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundmark, Robert (Luleaa Univ. of Technology, Luleaa (Sweden))

    2009-07-01

    The report aims to assess the economics of biofuels-supply in Sweden. This is done by constructing supply curves for the relevant categories of biomass. Further assessment is made on the future supply with a 10- and 25-year perspective, inter alia, to allow the adaptation of forest and agricultural sector technologies to more efficient use of biomass. The presence of regional and international markets is also included in the analysis. The model allows an estimate of a range for each category of biomass. These then form the basis for constructing different aggregate supply curves. The results indicate economic opportunities to increase the harvesting of biomass for a given cost. This increase is dependent on the prevailing cost. However, the results indicate that previous studies overestimate the potential reasons, why a higher degree of confidence is needed in order to formulate various policy measures

  7. Verbal Short-Term Memory Span in Speech-Disordered Children: Implications for Articulatory Coding in Short-Term Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raine, Adrian; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Children with speech disorders had lower short-term memory capacity and smaller word length effect than control children. Children with speech disorders also had reduced speech-motor activity during rehearsal. Results suggest that speech rate may be a causal determinant of verbal short-term memory capacity. (BC)

  8. Feasibility study on the potential of development of renewable energies for the ZAC de l'Horloge in Romainville. Study of opportunities in renewable energies and definition of energy supply scenarios. Analysis and comparison of energy supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-12-01

    A first report proposes an overview of available renewable energy sources (geothermal, solar, and wind energy, green electricity, methanization, wood energy, waste water valorisation, connection to an existing heat network). For each of them, it presents a resource assessment, a discussion of constraints, or, should the occasion occur an overview of local providers (for wood), or an assessment of different options (small and large wind energy installations). It also presents demands made by existing sites on the studied area and at its neighbourhood. Energy supply scenarios are briefly defined. The second report proposes an analysis and a comparison of these scenarios. After a presentation of hypotheses and methodology, scenarios are presented in terms of energy needs, energy production and its relationship with the performance of positive energy buildings, adequacy with resource. Beside a reference scenario, these scenarios are named Dogger, Biomass, Wood, Clustered sectors. Comparison is performed in terms of energetic, economic and environmental assessments

  9. Energy security of supply under EU climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenenberg, H.; Wetzelaer, B.J.H.W.

    2006-12-01

    The implications of various climate policies for the security of supply in the EU-25 were investigated. The security of supply was quantified using the Supply/Demand (S/D) Index. This index aggregates quantitative information on a country's energy system into one single figure. It takes a value between 0 and 100, with higher values indicating a more secure energy system. The S/D Index was calculated for the year 2020 based on the information in a series of policy scenarios, including a baseline (S/D Index 50.7), an energy efficiency scenario (53.8), two renewable energy scenarios (52.6 and 53.3) and two scenarios with combined policies (55.9 and 55.6).The S/D Index proved a useful indicator for assessing the implications of climate policies for the security of supply. As climate policies become more stringent, CO2 index fall, and the S/D index increases. The magnitude of the changes in the two indices is not always similar however. Major falls in CO2 indices in the order of 20% for two scenarios with combined energy efficiency and renewable energy polices lead to less noteworthy improvements in the associated S/D indices. Nevertheless, this combination of policies leads to the greatest improvements in the security of supply

  10. ENERGY STAR Certified Uninterruptible Power Supplies

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Certified models meet all ENERGY STAR requirements as listed in the Version 1.0 ENERGY STAR Program Requirements for Uninterruptible Power Supplies that are...

  11. Energy supply security in Europe: principles and measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppler, J.H.

    2007-01-01

    After having recalled a dozen of reasons for some worries about energy supply security in Europe during the past months (oil price increase, intentional interruption of gas and oil deliveries by Russia respectively to Ukraine and Belarus, creation of a new CO 2 trading scheme, tensions on the European electricity markets, and so on), the author distinguishes and discusses those which are actually a threat to energy supply and those which are not. Then, he proposes a classification of these threats in relationship with the reasons for delivery interruption, production capacity limitation, or price increase. These reasons can be political situations and decisions, technical problems, commercial reasons. Then, the author examines what European policy makers can do to manage these risks and ensure energy supply security. This needs economic as well as political responses, coherence between domestic energy policies and energy supply security, and an efficient foreign policy based on a multilateral approach

  12. Decentralised energy supply in 2020 - Commercial aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kleimaier, M.

    2007-01-01

    This comprehensive article summarises the commercial aspects of a study made by the German Association of Electrical, Electronic and Information Technologies VDE on the topic of decentralised energy supply in the year 2020. In a previous article, the technical aspects were examined. This article looks at the findings in connection with commercial aspects of the production of power in decentralised facilities including those using renewable sources of energy. The potential of these forms of electricity generation for the year 2020 is looked at both from the political and economical points of view. The general conditions prevailing for the implementation of decentralised power production in Germany such as the Renewable Energy Law and legislation on combined heat and power generation are discussed. The influence of electricity tariffs and competition in the market is examined, as are various scenarios and concepts for the supply of both power and heating energy. Ways of providing a sustainable energy supply without having to subsidise particular concepts are discussed

  13. The Mind and Brain of Short-Term Memory

    OpenAIRE

    Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.; Nee, Derek Evan; Lustig, Cindy A.; Berman, Marc G.; Moore, Katherine Sledge

    2008-01-01

    The past 10 years have brought near-revolutionary changes in psychological theories about short-term memory, with similarly great advances in the neurosciences. Here, we critically examine the major psychological theories (the “mind”) of short-term memory and how they relate to evidence about underlying brain mechanisms. We focus on three features that must be addressed by any satisfactory theory of short-term memory. First, we examine the evidence for the architecture of short-term memory, w...

  14. CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in BRIC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pao, H.-T.; Tsai, C.-M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions, energy consumption and output for a panel of BRIC countries over the period 1971-2005, except for Russia (1990-2005). In long-run equilibrium energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on emissions, while real output exhibits the inverted U-shape pattern associated with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis with the threshold income of 5.393 (in logarithms). In the short term, changes in emissions are driven mostly by the error correction term and short term energy consumption shocks, as opposed to short term output shocks for each country. Short-term deviations from the long term equilibrium take from 0.770 years (Russia) to 5.848 years (Brazil) to correct. The panel causality results indicate there are energy consumption-emissions bidirectional strong causality and energy consumption-output bidirectional long-run causality, along with unidirectional both strong and short-run causalities from emissions and energy consumption, respectively, to output. Overall, in order to reduce emissions and not to adversely affect economic growth, increasing both energy supply investment and energy efficiency, and stepping up energy conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage of energy can be initiated for energy-dependent BRIC countries. - Research highlights: →Energy has a positive impact on emissions, while output supports EKC hypothesis. →Changes in emissions are driven mostly by the ECT and short term energy shocks. →Short-term deviations from the long-term equilibrium take 0.77-5.85 years to correct. →There are energy-emissions and energy-output bidirectional long-run causalities. →There are unidirectional strong causalities from emissions and energy to output.

  15. Very-long-term and short-term chromatic adaptation: are their influences cumulative?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belmore, Suzanne C; Shevell, Steven K

    2011-02-09

    Very-long-term (VLT) chromatic adaptation results from exposure to an altered chromatic environment for days or weeks. Color shifts from VLT adaptation are observed hours or days after leaving the altered environment. Short-term chromatic adaptation, on the other hand, results from exposure for a few minutes or less, with color shifts measured within seconds or a few minutes after the adapting light is extinguished; recovery to the pre-adapted state is complete in less than an hour. Here, both types of adaptation were combined. All adaptation was to reddish-appearing long-wavelength light. Shifts in unique yellow were measured following adaptation. Previous studies demonstrate shifts in unique yellow due to VLT chromatic adaptation, but shifts from short-term chromatic adaptation to comparable adapting light can be far greater than from VLT adaptation. The question considered here is whether the color shifts from VLT adaptation are cumulative with large shifts from short-term adaptation or, alternatively, does simultaneous short-term adaptation eliminate color shifts caused by VLT adaptation. The results show the color shifts from VLT and short-term adaptation together are cumulative, which indicates that both short-term and very-long-term chromatic adaptation affect color perception during natural viewing. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Optimizing energy for a 'green' vaccine supply chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, John; McCarney, Steve; Ouhichi, Ramzi; Lydon, Patrick; Zaffran, Michel

    2015-02-11

    This paper describes an approach piloted in the Kasserine region of Tunisia to increase the energy efficiency of the distribution of vaccines and temperature sensitive drugs. The objectives of an approach, known as the 'net zero energy' (NZE) supply chain were demonstrated within the first year of operation. The existing distribution system was modified to store vaccines and medicines in the same buildings and to transport them according to pre-scheduled and optimized delivery circuits. Electric utility vehicles, dedicated to the integrated delivery of vaccines and medicines, improved the regularity and reliability of the supply chains. Solar energy, linked to the electricity grid at regional and district stores, supplied over 100% of consumption meeting all energy needs for storage, cooling and transportation. Significant benefits to the quality and costs of distribution were demonstrated. Supply trips were scheduled, integrated and reliable, energy consumption was reduced, the recurrent cost of electricity was eliminated and the release of carbon to the atmosphere was reduced. Although the initial capital cost of scaling up implementation of NZE remain high today, commercial forecasts predict cost reduction for solar energy and electric vehicles that may permit a step-wise implementation over the next 7-10 years. Efficiency in the use of energy and in the deployment of transport is already a critical component of distribution logistics in both private and public sectors of industrialized countries. The NZE approach has an intensified rationale in countries where energy costs threaten the maintenance of public health services in areas of low population density. In these countries where the mobility of health personnel and timely arrival of supplies is at risk, NZE has the potential to reduce energy costs and release recurrent budget to other needs of service delivery while also improving the supply chain. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd

  17. Future energy supplies. Lessons from the world energy outlook 2001. Insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cattier, F.

    2002-01-01

    At a global level, primary energy resources are amply sufficient to meet the growing needs expected over the coming decades. Energy supplies may however be affected by economic, technological or political conditions. Supplies of oil and natural gas will be dependent in particular on the carrying out of the necessary investments in the field of development, production capacity, transport and distribution within a suitable time. The future for coal is above all linked to future environmental policies to be put in place and on the capacity of 'clean' coal technologies to respond to these. Due to their costs, which remain high, and to a lack of incentive policies, renewable energy sources should find it difficult to gain a major share of world energy markets. Finally, the future for nuclear energy remains dependent upon policies concerning security of supply or the fight against climatic change. (author)

  18. Nuclear fuel cycle requirements and supply considerations, through the long-term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-02-01

    The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency have for many years published a joint report entitled ''Uranium Resources, Production and Demand'', and a revised edition of this work, dated December 1977, is now available. This report, on the other hand, is the result of a separate study of the supply and demand outlook for all fuel cycle services, as well as for uranium, through the long-term. The work was undertaken by the Nuclear Energy Agency's Working Party on Uranium Demand, whose members are listed in Appendix III. The intent here has been to contribute to the orderly development of nuclear power, by: 1. identifying potential problems in the supply of uranium and fuel cycle services, and possible areas for international co-operation in the resolution of such problems; 2. examining several long-range scenarios to determine the comparative needs of advanced reactors for uranium and for supporting services, thereby establishing the basis for the further development of uranium resources and specific reactor systems; and 3. assisting those having responsibilities in planning, forecasting, and programme management. This report is the work of a group of technical experts and does not necessarily reflect official policy or endorsement of the report's projections and conclusions by the Member Governments of the Nuclear Energy Agency

  19. CO{sub 2} emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in BRIC countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pao, Hsiao-Tien; Tsai, Chung-Ming [Department of Management Science, National Chiao Tung University (China)

    2010-12-15

    This paper examines dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions, energy consumption and output for a panel of BRIC countries over the period 1971-2005, except for Russia (1990-2005). In long-run equilibrium energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on emissions, while real output exhibits the inverted U-shape pattern associated with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis with the threshold income of 5.393 (in logarithms). In the short term, changes in emissions are driven mostly by the error correction term and short term energy consumption shocks, as opposed to short term output shocks for each country. Short-term deviations from the long term equilibrium take from 0.770 years (Russia) to 5.848 years (Brazil) to correct. The panel causality results indicate there are energy consumption-emissions bidirectional strong causality and energy consumption-output bidirectional long-run causality, along with unidirectional both strong and short-run causalities from emissions and energy consumption, respectively, to output. Overall, in order to reduce emissions and not to adversely affect economic growth, increasing both energy supply investment and energy efficiency, and stepping up energy conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage of energy can be initiated for energy-dependent BRIC countries. (author)

  20. Green paper. Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    access to resources? 6. How can we ensure the development and better operation of energy transport networks in the European Union and neighbouring countries that enable the internal market to function properly and guarantee security of supply? 7. The development of some renewable energy sources calls for major efforts in terms of research and technological development, investment aid and operational aid. Should co-financing of this aid include a contribution from sectors which received substantial initial development aid and which are now highly profitable? 8. How can the Community find a solution to the problem of nuclear waste, reinforcing nuclear safety and developing research into reactors of the future, in particular fusion technology? 9. Which policies should permit the European Union to fulfill its obligations within the Kyoto Protocol? 10. Can an ambitious programme to promote biofuels and other substitute fuels, including hydrogen, geared to 20 % of total fuel consumption by 2020, continue to be implemented via national initiatives, or are coordinated decisions required on taxation, distribution and prospects for agricultural production? 11. Should energy saving in buildings be promoted through incentives such as tax breaks, or are regulatory measures required along the lines of those adopted for major industrial installations? 12. Energy saving in the transport sector depends on redressing the growing imbalance between road haulage and rail. Is this imbalance inevitable, or could corrective action be taken, however unpopular, notably to encourage lower use of cars in urban areas? 13. How can we develop more collaborative visions and integrate the long-term dimension into deliberations and actions undertaken by public authorities and other involved parties in order to evolve a sustainable system of energy supply? (A.L.B.)

  1. Green paper. Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    access to resources? 6. How can we ensure the development and better operation of energy transport networks in the European Union and neighbouring countries that enable the internal market to function properly and guarantee security of supply? 7. The development of some renewable energy sources calls for major efforts in terms of research and technological development, investment aid and operational aid. Should co-financing of this aid include a contribution from sectors which received substantial initial development aid and which are now highly profitable? 8. How can the Community find a solution to the problem of nuclear waste, reinforcing nuclear safety and developing research into reactors of the future, in particular fusion technology? 9. Which policies should permit the European Union to fulfill its obligations within the Kyoto Protocol? 10. Can an ambitious programme to promote biofuels and other substitute fuels, including hydrogen, geared to 20 % of total fuel consumption by 2020, continue to be implemented via national initiatives, or are coordinated decisions required on taxation, distribution and prospects for agricultural production? 11. Should energy saving in buildings be promoted through incentives such as tax breaks, or are regulatory measures required along the lines of those adopted for major industrial installations? 12. Energy saving in the transport sector depends on redressing the growing imbalance between road haulage and rail. Is this imbalance inevitable, or could corrective action be taken, however unpopular, notably to encourage lower use of cars in urban areas? 13. How can we develop more collaborative visions and integrate the long-term dimension into deliberations and actions undertaken by public authorities and other involved parties in order to evolve a sustainable system of energy supply? (A.L.B.)

  2. Costs and advantages of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almoguera, R.

    2006-01-01

    Recent studies on nuclear energy competitiveness show that considering only the economics this option is the most economic one to generate the base load electricity in most of the countries which do not have plenty of alternative fuels, being this advantage both for the actual prices formation and for their stability on the long term. Should we add the strategic and environmental benefits linked to: Kioto emissions limits, short and long term supply security, national wealth increase due to quality and price of the supply and enhancement of related enterprises, the goodness of nuclear energy to supply a significant share of the electricity demand in most of the countries is evident. For the investors to make decisions for this option, some conditions have to be assured: regulatory stability, favourable national energy policy and expectation for the future, predictable and proven licensing process and expectation for moderate interest rates in the long term. (Author)

  3. Medium and long-term supply of the FRG with natural uranium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephany, M

    1976-08-01

    A short survey is presented of the situation concerning the FRG's uranium supply taking into special consideration the economical aspects. Characteristic for the demand-supply-situation is the fact that the development of prices does not influence the costs as much as this is the case with other fuels, and that assurance of supply for the FRG is underpinned by participation in foreign enterprises.

  4. The energy supply situation in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lederer, P.

    2007-01-01

    The focus is on 4 energy supply issues of decisive relevance to energy supply in Germany, but also in other countries in Europe and worldwide: (1) How will the global energy situation develop? (2) What is the organization, and the development, of the market in which we are doing business? (3) What are the challenges facing the power industry in view of a threatening climate change? (4) Against this backdrop, how do we design the energy mix of the future? Analysis of these 4 points shows that, for a foreseeable time, all types of energy generation are necessary if Germany and Europe are to be supplied energy efficiently, securely, and in a way not polluting the environment. Hence, these concrete conclusions can be drawn: (1) We need more renewable energies in Germany, in Europe, and worldwide. (2) We need the development of 700 C coalfired power plant technology in order to first advance the development of CCS (carbon capture and storage) technology and thus minimize CO 2 emissions from fossil-fired power plants. (3) We need increases in energy efficiency which help us satisfy the steadily growing need for energy with dwindling fossil resources. (4) We need nuclear power because of its ability to produce baseload electricity free from CO 2 . For nuclear power, it is now important that politics and the power industry jointly find ways and means to reassess, in an unbiased way, the plant operating lives laid down in the current Atomic Energy Act. This is required, inter alia, because of the challenges in climate policy and because of global economic boundary conditions. (orig.)

  5. Short-term Treatment of Daumone Improves Hepatic Inflammation in Aged Mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong Hee; Ha, Hunjoo

    2015-05-01

    Chronic inflammation has been proposed as one of the main molecular mechanisms of aging and age-related diseases. Although evidence in humans is limited, short-term calorie restriction (CR) has been shown to have anti-inflammatory effects in aged experimental animals. We reported on the long-term treatment of daumone, a synthetic pheromone secreted by Caenorhabditis elegans in an energy deficient environment, extends the life-span and attenuates liver injury in aged mice. The present study examined whether late onset short-term treatment of daumone exerts anti-inflammatory effects in the livers of aged mice. Daumone was administered orally at doses of 2 or 20 mg/kg/day for 5 weeks to 24-month-old male C57BL/6J mice. Increased liver macrophage infiltration and gene expression of proinflammatory cytokines in aged mice were significantly attenuated by daumone treatment, suggesting that short-term oral administration of daumone may have hepatoprotective effects. Daumone also dose-dependently suppressed tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α)-induced nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) phosphorylation in HepG2 cells. The present data demonstrated that short-term treatment of daumone has anti-inflammatory effects in aged mouse livers possibly through suppression of NF-κB signaling and suggest that daumone may become a lead compound targeting aging and age-associated diseases.

  6. Short term memory in echo state networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jaeger, H.

    2001-01-01

    The report investigates the short-term memory capacity of echo state recurrent neural networks. A quantitative measure MC of short-term memory capacity is introduced. The main result is that MC 5 N for networks with linear Output units and i.i.d. input, where N is network size. Conditions under which these maximal memory capacities are realized are described. Several theoretical and practical examples demonstrate how the short-term memory capacities of echo state networks can be exploited for...

  7. Energy supply technologies. Hydro, ocean, wave and tidal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fenhann, J.; Larsen, Hans [Risoe National Lab. - DTU (Denmark)

    2007-11-15

    This chapter presents an overview of current hydro, ocean, wave and tidal initiatives. Large hydro remains one of the lowest-cost generating technologies, although environmental constraints, resettlement impacts and the limited availability of sites have restricted further growth in many countries. Large hydro supplied 16 % of global electricity in 2004, down from 19 % a decade ago. Large hydro capacity totalled about 720 GW worldwide in 2004 and has grown historically at slightly more than 2 % annually. China installed nearly 8 GW of large hydro in 2004, taking the country to number one in terms of installed capacity (74 GW). With the completion of the Three Gorges Dam, China will add some 18.2 GW of hydro capacity in 2009. The socio-economic benefits of hydro include improved flood control and water supply. The socio-economic benefits of hydro include improved flood control and water supply. The socio-economic cost of hydro includes displacements and submergence. Further hydro can improve peak-capacity management. Ocean currents, some of which runs close to European coasts, carry a lot of kinetic energy. Part of this energy can be captured by sub-marine windmills and converted into electricity. These are more compact than the wind turbines used on land, simply because water is much denser than air. The main European countries with useful current power potential are France and the UK. Ocean tides are driven by the gravitational pull of the moon. With one high tide every 12 hours, a tidal power plant can operate for only four or five hours per cycle, so power from a single plant is intermittent. A suitably-designed tidal plant can, however, operate as a pimped storage system, using electricity during periods of low demand to store energy that can be recovered later. The only large, modern example of a tidal power plant is the 240 MW La Rance plant, built in France in the 1960s, which represents 91 % of the world tidal power capacity. Wave energy can be seen as

  8. 20% wind by 2030: Overcoming the challenge - U.S. wind supply chain bottlenecks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaw, Meghan

    2010-09-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) provided PowerAdvocate with funding to evaluate the challenges facing the supply chain and provide strategic solutions to overcoming the short and long term supply chain challenges. PowerAdvocate conducted market research and interviews with wind developers, turbine and component suppliers and offshore wind development experts. PowerAdvocate created a comprehensive model. The model includes labor statistics, wind facility cost forecasting, and component supplier manufacturing investments in order to estimate the total cost to build a supply chain that supports the DOE's 20% by 2030 wind installation goal.

  9. A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanamura, Takashi

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

  10. A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanamura, Takashi [J-POWER, 15-1, Ginza 6-Chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-8165 (Japan)

    2009-09-15

    This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

  11. Long term assurance of supply of heavy water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    The answer of Switzerland and Great Britain to a number of questions concerning the long-term assurance of the supply of heavy water are presented. The original problems are seen in the wider context of raw materials supply and its assurance in general. Non-proliferation aspects are touched

  12. Short term and medium term power distribution load forecasting by neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yalcinoz, T.; Eminoglu, U.

    2005-01-01

    Load forecasting is an important subject for power distribution systems and has been studied from different points of view. In general, load forecasts should be performed over a broad spectrum of time intervals, which could be classified into short term, medium term and long term forecasts. Several research groups have proposed various techniques for either short term load forecasting or medium term load forecasting or long term load forecasting. This paper presents a neural network (NN) model for short term peak load forecasting, short term total load forecasting and medium term monthly load forecasting in power distribution systems. The NN is used to learn the relationships among past, current and future temperatures and loads. The neural network was trained to recognize the peak load of the day, total load of the day and monthly electricity consumption. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to real load shapes from the Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation (TEDAS) in Nigde. The data represents the daily and monthly electricity consumption in Nigde, Turkey

  13. A Combined Methodology of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Genetic Algorithm for Short-term Energy Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KAMPOUROPOULOS, K.

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This document presents an energy forecast methodology using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS and Genetic Algorithms (GA. The GA has been used for the selection of the training inputs of the ANFIS in order to minimize the training result error. The presented algorithm has been installed and it is being operating in an automotive manufacturing plant. It periodically communicates with the plant to obtain new information and update the database in order to improve its training results. Finally the obtained results of the algorithm are used in order to provide a short-term load forecasting for the different modeled consumption processes.

  14. Energy Levels and Co-evolution of Product Innovation in Supply Chain Clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Guojun

    In the last decade supply chain clusters phenomenon has emerged as a new approach in product innovation studies. This article makes three contributions to the approach by addressing some open issues. The first contribution is to explicitly incorporate the energy levels in the analysis. Hence, the unit of analysis is widened from sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems. Hence, the unit of analysis is widened from sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems. The second contribution is to suggest an analytical distinction between different evolution method, actors involved in them, and the institutions which guide actor's perceptions and activities. Thirdly, the article opens up the black box of institutions, making them an integral part of supply chain. The article provides a coherent conceptual multi-level perspective, using insights from sociology, institutional theory and innovation studies. The perspective is particularly useful to analyze long-term dynamics supply chain clusters phenomenon, shifts from one energy level to another and the co-evolution of product innovation.

  15. Towards a Carbon-Neutral Energy Sector: Opportunities and Challenges of Coordinated Bioenergy Supply Chains-A PSE Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Puigjaner

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The electricity generation sector needs to reduce its environmental impact and dependence on fossil fuel, mainly from coal. Biomass is one of the most promising future options to produce electricity, given its potential contribution to climate change mitigation. Even though biomass is an old source of energy, it is not yet a well-established commodity. The use of biomass in large centralised systems requires the establishment of delivery channels to provide the desired feedstock with the necessary attributes, at the right time and place. In terms of time to deployment and cost of the solution, co-combustion/co-gasification of biomass and coal are presented as transition and short-medium term alternatives towards a carbon-neutral energy sector. Hence, there is a need to assess an effective introduction of co-combustion/co-gasification projects in the current electricity production share. The purpose of this work is to review recent steps in Process Systems Engineering towards bringing into reality individualised and ad-hoc solutions, by building a common but adjustable design platform to tailored approaches of biomass-based supply chains. Current solutions and the latest developments are presented and future needs under study are also identified.

  16. Stimulating Investments in Energy Efficiency Through Supply Chain Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatrice Marchi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Attention to energy efficiency is recently experiencing substantial growth. To overcome the several barriers currently existing that represent an obstacle to the successful implementation of the wide set of energy efficiency measures available, the cooperation among members of a supply chain offers a huge potential. In supply chains, in addition to the traditional coordination of the operations, the members may also share financial resources or act jointly on the capital market. This study presents a two-stage supply chain model considering the opportunity to invest in new energy efficient technologies which are affected by learning effects: the member of the supply chain with better energy performance and/or better financial conditions may find it more profitable to invest in the development of the energy efficiency of its partner. The objective of the model is to determine the optimal investment for each supply chain member so as to maximize the Net Present Value of the supply chain. The impacts of the proposed joint decision-making are investigated through some numerical analysis and managerial insights are proposed: the joint decision-making process on the financial flows for the energy efficiency investments results are especially advantageous (up to a 20% increase of the supply chain Net Present Value when members have different access to capital, which could be the result of different economic conditions in companies’ countries, as well as different credit policies or different credit ratings.

  17. Modeling sustainability in renewable energy supply chain systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Fei

    This dissertation aims at modeling sustainability of renewable fuel supply chain systems against emerging challenges. In particular, the dissertation focuses on the biofuel supply chain system design, and manages to develop advanced modeling framework and corresponding solution methods in tackling challenges in sustaining biofuel supply chain systems. These challenges include: (1) to integrate "environmental thinking" into the long-term biofuel supply chain planning; (2) to adopt multimodal transportation to mitigate seasonality in biofuel supply chain operations; (3) to provide strategies in hedging against uncertainty from conversion technology; and (4) to develop methodologies in long-term sequential planning of the biofuel supply chain under uncertainties. All models are mixed integer programs, which also involves multi-objective programming method and two-stage/multistage stochastic programming methods. In particular for the long-term sequential planning under uncertainties, to reduce the computational challenges due to the exponential expansion of the scenario tree, I also developed efficient ND-Max method which is more efficient than CPLEX and Nested Decomposition method. Through result analysis of four independent studies, it is found that the proposed modeling frameworks can effectively improve the economic performance, enhance environmental benefits and reduce risks due to systems uncertainties for the biofuel supply chain systems.

  18. Short-term wind power prediction based on LSSVM–GSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Xiaohui; Chen, Chen; Yuan, Yanbin; Huang, Yuehua; Tan, Qingxiong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid model is developed for short-term wind power prediction. • The model is based on LSSVM and gravitational search algorithm. • Gravitational search algorithm is used to optimize parameters of LSSVM. • Effect of different kernel function of LSSVM on wind power prediction is discussed. • Comparative studies show that prediction accuracy of wind power is improved. - Abstract: Wind power forecasting can improve the economical and technical integration of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Due to its intermittency and randomness, it is hard to forecast wind power accurately. For the purpose of utilizing wind power to the utmost extent, it is very important to make an accurate prediction of the output power of a wind farm under the premise of guaranteeing the security and the stability of the operation of the power system. In this paper, a hybrid model (LSSVM–GSA) based on the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) is proposed to forecast the short-term wind power. As the kernel function and the related parameters of the LSSVM have a great influence on the performance of the prediction model, the paper establishes LSSVM model based on different kernel functions for short-term wind power prediction. And then an optimal kernel function is determined and the parameters of the LSSVM model are optimized by using GSA. Compared with the Back Propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model, the simulation results show that the hybrid LSSVM–GSA model based on exponential radial basis kernel function and GSA has higher accuracy for short-term wind power prediction. Therefore, the proposed LSSVM–GSA is a better model for short-term wind power prediction

  19. Dynamics of energy-related CO2 emissions in China during 1980-2002: the relative importance of energy supply-side and demand-side effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Libo Wu; Kaneko, Shinji; Matsuoka, Shunji

    2006-01-01

    Based on a newly developed model that integrates energy production, transformation and consumption processes, this paper compares the relative importance of some traditionally recognized factors operating on the energy demand side with a body of newly defined factors on the supply side, in terms of their contribution to trends in China's CO 2 emissions related to the total primary energy supply (C-TPES). Before 1996, changes in China's C-TPES were mainly driven by changes on the energy demand side. Factors operating on the energy supply side played trivial roles. During the period 1996-2000, however, increasing demand-side effects declined dramatically and at the same time decreasing effects from supply side expanded significantly. Such changes resulted directly in a decline in the C-TPES. The decreasing effects from international trade as well as statistical imbalances between supply and demand reinforced the declining trend. The shrinkage of demand side effects mainly arose from the slowdown of economic growth and speed of decrease in energy intensity. The expansion of supply-side effects was principally attributed to the speed of decrease in gross unit consumption in transformation sectors, especially in electricity sector. Therefore, the acceleration of efficiency improvements in end-use and transformation sectors accounted for the decline in the C-TPES over the period 1996-2000. (author)

  20. Unpacking Coordination Benefits in Supply Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrick, Irene J.; Maitland, Carleen; Pogrebnyakov, Nicolai

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines how coordination among firms in supply networks generates benefits in the short and long terms for firms. It focuses on information technology (IT) and process improvement coordination. Analysis was performed on quantitative and qualitative data from a sample of SMEs in plastics...... manufacturing in Pennsylvania. Results indicate that coordination on both IT and process improvement leads to short- and long-term benefits. These relationships were mediated by the adoption of innovations (when coordinating on IT) and access to new capabilities (in process improvement coordination......). These results extend the understanding of how participation in supply networks benefits individual firms....

  1. Energy supply - a global problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barthelt, K.

    1990-01-01

    The text of a speech celebrating the 10 years operation of the nuclear power plant in Goesgen. The author expresses his opinion on the future of nuclear energy, on the responsibility towards the next generation and on the energy supply for the Third World. He draws attention to the gap between north and south and to the limited amount of resources and mention the CO2-problem and the potential of nuclear energy

  2. Speaker's presentations. Energy supply security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierret, Ch.

    2000-01-01

    This document is a collection of most of the papers used by the speakers of the European Seminar on Energy Supply Security organised in Paris (at the French Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry) on 24 November 2000 by the General Direction of Energy and Raw Materials, in co-operation with the European Commission and the French Planning Office. About 250 attendees were present, including a lot of high level Civil Servants from the 15 European State members, and their questions have allowed to create a rich debate. It took place five days before the publication, on 29 November 2000, by the European Commission, of the Green Paper 'Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply'. This French initiative, which took place within the framework of the European Presidency of the European Union, during the second half-year 2000. will bring a first impetus to the brainstorming launched by the Commission. (author)

  3. Energy supply in the field of tension between utopia and reality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knizia, K.

    1988-01-01

    In a strategy covering at least the basic needs of world population but which has also to consider environmental protection, in particular the CO 2 overloading of the atmosphere, biomass, in particular timber, has to be replaced to an increasing extent as a source of energy in less developed countries. This has to be realized by an increasing consumption of oil and coal, in fact in the framework of investments and technologies which are reasonable and controllable for these countries. Although these countries start out from very different conditions, the capital and technology transfer from the industrialized nations will have to rise in general. Industrial regions must also intensify their investments in energy supply and develop and introduce substitution and stretching methods for conventional kinds of energy bound to a high technological infrastructure. The development of nuclear energy is part of this task; the other part consists in the development and introduction of plants using the fossil energy reserves more economically and ecologically. Coal, which is the largest long-term resource in quantity, has to be assigned in due time and due consideration of economic aspects the task to stretch the oil supplies. (orig./DG) [de

  4. North American natural gas supply dynamics: A focus on U.S. supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, R.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses US natural gas supply dynamics in the context of the North American gas marketplace. Supply fundamentals are examined, methodology is briefly presented, regional supply outlooks are discussed. Assumptions, drivers and issues are highlighted. The analysis and outlook indicate that the sizeable North American resource base can be economically developed to supply growing US natural gas requirements. The major incremental supply sources are likely to come from deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Rocky Mountain regions, onshore Texas and imports from Canada. Given this outlook, major business and investment opportunities exist for the gas upstream and midstream sectors despite some short-term challenges

  5. A novel inclusion of intermittent generation resources in long term energy auctions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marambio, Rodrigo; Rudnick, Hugh

    2017-01-01

    Long term energy auctions are positioning as a valuable tool in order to attract new investments into power systems, especially in Latin American countries where emergent economies characteristics and their correspondent risks are usually present. Even though the focus of these auctions is the long term, there are short term issues involved which actual auction designs fail to include, resulting in an energy allocation that is not necessarily optimal for the system, a condition which becomes more evident in the presence of intermittent renewable technologies. A novel mechanism is formulated to obtain the optimal allocation in long term energy auctions, considering short term generation profiles from both intermittent and conventional base load technologies, and also their risk aversions. The proposed mechanism is developed and simulations are made for some scenarios in the Chilean power market, with different levels of renewable penetration. Significant cost savings are achieved for the final consumers in relation to energy purchases, in comparison with a mechanism that follows the demand profile. As more renewable intermittent capacity enters the power system it is evident the need for changes in the energy auctions allocation mechanisms, including elements to exploit the synergies among participants in the short term. - Highlights: • Risk management consideration in technology neutral auctions allocation. • Allocation mechanism in technology neutral auctions with intermittent technologies. • Renewable and conventional technologies energy auction offer curves. • Increase bid prices in auctions as a consequence of solar technology support.

  6. Long-term trends in US gas supply and prices: 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1993-03-01

    A Summary of the gas supply outlook in the 1993 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, adopted as a major input to the planning cycle of the 1994 research and development program, is presented. Significant changes were made in developing the gas supply and price trends for the 1993 edition of the projection. The GRI Hydrocarbon Model was expanded to include the Canadian hydrocarbon resource base. Thus, Canadian and lower-48 gas production and prices were developed on a fully integrated basis in the 1993 projection. The lower-48 hydrocarbon resource estimate was increased, reflecting the results of the recent National Petroleum Council gas study and ongoing GRI resource work. The effects of new technology and practice on drilling costs and exploration efficiency were included for the first time. Appendices include comparisons of supply and price trends

  7. Energy supply and demand in Canada and export demand for Canadian energy, 1966--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1969-01-01

    This report presents the results of a National Energy Board staff study of energy supply and demand in Canada to 1990. The study covers all forms of energy in Canada, and probable sources of supply for serving both indigenous and export demand for Canadian energy. Energy demand by market sector (residential and commercial, industrial, and transportation) is discussed in Chapters III, IV and V, respectively. Chapters VI, VII, VIII, and IX deal with supply prospects for Canadian petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity serving indigenous and export markets. A summary of the report is contained in Chapter II. Appendix A reviews general assumptions including those relating to population and household growth. Appendix B summarizes the methodology used for estimating residential energy demand, automobile transportation energy demand, and electricity supply. Appendix C includes a number of tables which provide detailed information. A list of definitions and abbreviations follows the Table of Contents.

  8. Short-Term Memory and Aphasia: From Theory to Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minkina, Irene; Rosenberg, Samantha; Kalinyak-Fliszar, Michelene; Martin, Nadine

    2017-02-01

    This article reviews existing research on the interactions between verbal short-term memory and language processing impairments in aphasia. Theoretical models of short-term memory are reviewed, starting with a model assuming a separation between short-term memory and language, and progressing to models that view verbal short-term memory as a cognitive requirement of language processing. The review highlights a verbal short-term memory model derived from an interactive activation model of word retrieval. This model holds that verbal short-term memory encompasses the temporary activation of linguistic knowledge (e.g., semantic, lexical, and phonological features) during language production and comprehension tasks. Empirical evidence supporting this model, which views short-term memory in the context of the processes it subserves, is outlined. Studies that use a classic measure of verbal short-term memory (i.e., number of words/digits correctly recalled in immediate serial recall) as well as those that use more intricate measures (e.g., serial position effects in immediate serial recall) are discussed. Treatment research that uses verbal short-term memory tasks in an attempt to improve language processing is then summarized, with a particular focus on word retrieval. A discussion of the limitations of current research and possible future directions concludes the review. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  9. Switzerland's electricity supply industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inwyler, Ch.

    1980-01-01

    After a short description of Switzerland's electricity supply industry, the author comments on the production and consumption of electrical energy as well as on Switzerland's role within the European grid. A brief survey of electricity supply as a service is followed by a discussion of the political tools (such as e.g. the referendum, the hearing procedure etc.), which are an essential clue for understanding the position of the electricity supply industry in Switzerland. (Auth.)

  10. Long term assurance of supply of raw materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    The working group discussed the long-term assurance of uranium supply. A number of key questions is presented along with the answers given by representatives of 10 countries and by EC commission. Emphasis is laid on market stability and on the difficulties in adopting to sudden changes in the supply and demand situation

  11. Vision 2050: sustainable energy supply and use in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, M.; Brodmann, U.; Ott, W.

    2003-01-01

    This executive summary for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy SFOE summarises the results of a study carried out on the topic of how long-term strategies for Swiss energy policy. can be developed. A proposed series of studies is examined that is to show how Switzerland can find the way to a sustainable energy supplies and their sustainable use by the year 2050. Research areas are defined, particularly in the technical, behavioural and political sectors. Technical potentials in several areas, strategies and instruments are looked at, as is the social acceptance of proposed measures. Also, models for the analysis of economic effects are examined. Sustainability indicators and targets are reviewed, as are the benefits of developing strategies as early as possible. The report is completed with recommendations for further action

  12. Sustainability and energy security : the squeeze on natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoover, G.; Howatson, A.; Parmenter, R.

    2004-01-01

    This paper outlines the impact of environmental policy on natural gas demand and describes alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, biomass and clean coal that can increase energy supplies. This briefing also establishes the short-, medium-, and long-term consequences of current natural gas realities. It also outlines the driving forces in Canada and the United States behind the demand for natural gas. The impact of policy formation and the phase-out of coal in Ontario are addressed along with natural gas supply prospects and the prospects and obstacles for riskier incremental supplies such as liquefied natural gas, natural gas from coal, and frontier natural gas. It was concluded that strong demand and tight supply are the factors that have driven up natural gas prices. Continued high natural gas prices in the short term will likely motivate conservation strategies at the personal household level as well as in the business and industrial sectors. Although wind power is seen as a clean, competitively prices alternative to natural gas-fired electricity generation, its contribution is not expected to change the supply and demand equilibrium. Initiatives such as the Mackenzie Valley Pipeline, the Alaskan Pipeline and drilling in the Atlantic may help balance natural gas supply and demand in the mid-term. 44 refs., 2 tabs., 7 figs

  13. Supply reliability and dynamic safety analysis of an alternative energy supply chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herbert-Hansen, Zaza Nadja Lee; Markert, Frank; Jacobsen, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on the integration of risk and supply chain modelling by means of analysing a case concerning a Hydrogen Refuelling Station in Berlin. It presents a framework that can analyse an energy supply chain and at the same time enables easy reporting and presentation of various results...

  14. Short-term forecasting of non-OPEC supply: a test of seasonality and seasonal decomposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jazayeri, S.M.R.T.; Yahyai, A.

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this study is, first to find out, based on historical data, whether quarterly averages of non-OPEC supply follow a seasonal pattern. If that is mathematically established, then, secondly, it is attempted to estimate the best seasonal factors to decompose the estimated yearly average into seasonal averages. This study applies the Fourier analysis to quarterly supply series to test for seasonality, and provides estimates of seasonal factors for the year 2001 by applying the so-called X-11 decomposition method to the annual estimate. A set of historical data, consisting of quarterly supply averages of individual countries, regional subtotals and aggregate non-OPEC for the period 1971-2000, forms the basis of the analysis. Through the application of the Fourier analysis and X-11 decomposition method, it is demonstrated that quarterly non-OPEC supply, be it by an individual major producer or regional sub-totals, clearly follows a seasonal pattern. This is a very useful conclusion for the market analyst involved with forecasting the quarterly supply. (author)

  15. An energy strategy for France; Une strategie energetique pour la France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fontaine, N.

    2003-10-01

    The present report endeavors tpo make a synthesis of the debate about energy to deduce numerous measures devoted to define the French energy strategy for the short, middle and long term. Two parts are studied in this report. In the first one, the landscape of energy is set, the market is tackled, the energy supply and demand are object of controversy. In the second part, the objective for an energy policy are summarized, elements for the control of energy demand are studied, the energy supply is equally tackled. (N.C.)

  16. Short-Term Optimal Operation of a Wind-PV-Hydro Complementary Installation: Yalong River, Sichuan Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinshuo Zhang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available How to effectively use clean renewable energy to improve the capacity of the power grid to absorb new energy and optimize the power grid structure has become one of China’s current issues. The Yalong River Wind-PV-Hydro complementary clean energy base was chosen as the research object from which to analyze the output complementarity principle and characteristics of wind farms, photovoltaic power plants, and hydropower stations. Then, an optimization scheduling model was established with the objective of minimizing the amount of abandoned wind and photovoltaic power and maximizing the stored energy in cascade hydropower stations. A Progress Optimality Algorithm (POA was used for the short-term optimal operation of Wind-PV-Hydro combinations. The results show that use of cascaded hydropower storage capacity can compensate for large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power, provide a relatively sustained and stable power supply for the grid. Wind-PV-Hydro complementary operation not only promotes wind power and photovoltaic power consumption but also improves the efficiency of using the original transmission channel of hydropower. This is of great significance to many developing countries in formatting a new green approach, realizing low-carbon power dispatch and trade and promoting regional economic development.

  17. Linking consumer energy efficiency with security of supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutherford, J.P.; Scharpf, E.W.; Carrington, C.G.

    2007-01-01

    Most modern energy policies seek to achieve systematic ongoing incremental increases in consumer energy efficiency, since this contributes to improved security of supply, favourable environmental outcomes and increased economic efficiency. Yet realised levels of efficiency are typically well below the most cost-effective equilibrium due to variety of behavioural and organisational barriers, which are often linked to information constraints. In addition efficient users are normally unrewarded for collective benefits to system security and to the environment, thus reducing the incentives for energy consumers to invest in efficiency improvements. This paper examines the dichotomies and symmetries between supply- and demand-side solutions to energy security concerns and reviews opportunities to overcome barriers to improved consumer efficiency. A security market is identified as a mechanism to promote both demand- and supply-side investments that support electricity system security. Such a market would assist in setting the optimal quantity of reserves while achieving an efficient balance between supply- and demand-side initiatives. It would also help to smooth overall investment throughout the energy system by encouraging incremental approaches, such as distributed generation and demand-side alternatives where they provide competitive value. Although the discussion is applicable to energy systems in general, it focuses primarily on electricity in New Zealand

  18. A multilayered analysis of energy security research and the energy supply process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiriyama, Eriko; Kajikawa, Yuya

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The analysis reveals that energy security research is highly multidisciplinary. • Diversification is important for ensuring security in the energy supply process. • A multilayered overview of the energy supply process is important for energy risk management. • Consumer lifestyle innovation will be a part of energy security in the future. - Abstract: After the Fukushima nuclear disaster, a reassessment of the energy system is needed in order to include such aspects as human security and resilience. More open and careful discussions are needed concerning the various risks and uncertainties of future energy options, both in Japan and globally. In this paper, we aim to offer a fundamental basis for discourse on energy security by analyzing the status and trends in academic publications on that issue. Our bibliometrics analysis indicates that research has shifted from promoting strategies for ensuring the self-sufficiency of the primary energy to diversification of the secondary energy supply chain by introducing energy networks consisting of an infrastructure established through international coordination. In the literature, the concept of energy security is ambiguous and allows for multiple interpretations. Our results illustrate the existence of highly multidisciplinary topics within energy security, which can be categorized into four perspectives: geopolitical, economic, policy related, and technological

  19. International Conference SES 2006. Secure Energy Supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The International Conference SES 2006 (Secure Energy Supply, Bezpecna dodavka energie) was realised in Bratislava, during September 26 - 29, 2006 in the hotel Crowne Plaza and deals with most important problems of world and Slovak energetics. In work of Conference took part 108 slovak and 33 foreign participant from 11 countries of the world. Negotiations were realised in five sessions. First two days were devoted to lectures and second two days were visits of selected slovak energetic equipment. On the Conference has resounded matter of fact, that secure energy supply is extremely important subject for economy, but also for population

  20. Energy Management Control Systems: Tools for Energy Savings and Environmental Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zsebik, Albin; Zala, Laszlo F.

    2002-01-01

    The change in the price of energy has encouraged the increase of energy efficiency. This report will discuss a tool to promote energy efficiency in intelligent buildings, energy management control systems (EMCS). In addition to the online control of energy production, supply, and consumption, the function of the EMCS is to support short- and long-term planning of the system operation as well as to collect, store, and regularly evaluate operation data. The strategies behind planning and implementing the EMCS as well as the manipulating the resulting data are discussed in this report.

  1. What is the place of the energy supply security and energy independence in the energy policy?; Quelle est la place des preoccupations de securite d'approvisionnement et d'independance energetique dans la politique de l'energie?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-12-15

    Since the petroleum crisis and the electric power cuts of the 1999 storm, the energy security interest is growing. The author recall the structural risks of the energy systems and the vulnerability of the occidental economies to the supply disruptions. They propose then a long term cooperation between producer and consumer countries, a development of operational tools to face the crisis and a supply security inside the europe. (A.L.B.)

  2. Technologies for building integrated energy supply; Teknologier for bygningsintegreret energiforsyning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katic, I.

    2011-07-15

    The current report is part of the deliverables from the project ''Building Integrated Energy Supply'' supported by the Danish Energy Authority R and D program. It describes a range of technologies for individual supply of heat and/or electricity to dwellings with respect to their stage of development and possible application in the near future. Energy supply of buildings is becoming more and more complex, partly as a result of increasing demands for comfort, efficiency and reduced emissions, partly as a result of rising oil prices and improved competitiveness of alternative energy sources. The days where ordinary boilers were the dominant source of individual supply of dwellings are becoming past these years. The challenge of the new range of technologies lies to a high extent in the fluctuating nature of their energy conversion and their interaction with the supply grids for heat and electricity. There is thus an increasing demand to understand the nature of the different supply technologies, besides a regular update of their economical key figures. The technologies briefly described in this study are: Solar heating, passive solar energy, biofuel boilers, heat pumps, micro CHP, solar photovoltaic and energy storage systems. The selected technologies are all assessed to play an important role in future's mix of supply technologies in Denmark, especially heat pumps and solar. (Author)

  3. Short-term memories with a stochastic perturbation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pontes, Jose C.A. de; Batista, Antonio M.; Viana, Ricardo L.; Lopes, Sergio R.

    2005-01-01

    We investigate short-term memories in linear and weakly nonlinear coupled map lattices with a periodic external input. We use locally coupled maps to present numerical results about short-term memory formation adding a stochastic perturbation in the maps and in the external input

  4. Affordable, stable and assured supply of energy for poverty alleviation in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alam, S.

    2011-01-01

    For people living in poverty, the most pressing priority is the satisfaction of basic human needs, which includes access to food, shelter, water supply and sanitation and other services that will improve their standard of living, such as health care, education, and better transport. Problems of poverty in all its dimensions can be addressed with the improved provision of energy services and it is significant that most of those without having access to modern energy services live in developing countries; like Pakistan and belong to the segment of the human population that lives in poverty. While assured and adequate energy supplies do not guarantee economic growth and employment generation, their absence typically limits growth. Although low energy consumption is not a cause of poverty, the lack of available energy services correlates closely with many poverty indicators. The link between poverty and energy should not, however, be construed simply in terms of ability of the poor to afford better energy services. Energy services constitute a sizeable share of total household expenditure in Pakistan. People living in poverty often pay a higher price per unit of energy services than do the rich. They also spend more time in obtaining these energy services and rely on resource-scarce and polluting ways of converting energy for services like cooking, drinking water, heating and lighting, all of which have associated health impacts. The production and use of energy have environmental consequences at local, regional and global levels. These impacts extend throughout the fuel cycle of an Energy Chain. Energy plays a substantial role in the everyday lives of humans. Poverty describes a condition of people who are denied the opportunities for sustainable existence. for social uplift of the people of Pakistan at large through affordable, stable, and assured supply of energy keeping in view the environmental constraints. (author)

  5. Short-term memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toulouse, G.

    This is a rather bold attempt to bridge the gap between neuron structure and psychological data. We try to answer the question: Is there a relation between the neuronal connectivity in the human cortex (around 5,000) and the short-term memory capacity (7±2)? Our starting point is the Hopfield model (Hopfield 1982), presented in this volume by D.J. Amit.

  6. Perspectives of electricity supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    The 7 papers read at the symposium discussed the following subjects: Effects of the CO 2 problems of fossil energy systems on the world climate; status and perspectives of the German electricity industry in terms of competitiveness; The European electricity market and the integrated power supply system; Power supply without nuclear power; Costs and rates for households and other customers; Renewable energy sources and their contribution to energy supply in the Federal Republic of Germany; Electricity utilities as service partners. (UA) [de

  7. Competitive short-term and long-term memory processes in spatial habituation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, David J; Bannerman, David M

    2011-04-01

    Exposure to a spatial location leads to habituation of exploration such that, in a novelty preference test, rodents subsequently prefer exploring a novel location to the familiar location. According to Wagner's (1981) theory of memory, short-term and long-term habituation are caused by separate and sometimes opponent processes. In the present study, this dual-process account of memory was tested. Mice received a series of exposure training trials to a location before receiving a novelty preference test. The novelty preference was greater when tested after a short, rather than a long, interval. In contrast, the novelty preference was weaker when exposure training trials were separated by a short, rather than a long interval. Furthermore, it was found that long-term habituation was determined by the independent effects of the amount of exposure training and the number of exposure training trials when factors such as the intertrial interval and the cumulative intertrial interval were controlled. A final experiment demonstrated that a long-term reduction of exploration could be caused by a negative priming effect due to associations formed during exploration. These results provide evidence against a single-process account of habituation and suggest that spatial habituation is determined by both short-term, recency-based memory and long-term, incrementally strengthened memory.

  8. Retrieval-Induced Inhibition in Short-Term Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Min-Suk; Choi, Joongrul

    2015-07-01

    We used a visual illusion called motion repulsion as a model system for investigating competition between two mental representations. Subjects were asked to remember two random-dot-motion displays presented in sequence and then to report the motion directions for each. Remembered motion directions were shifted away from the actual motion directions, an effect similar to the motion repulsion observed during perception. More important, the item retrieved second showed greater repulsion than the item retrieved first. This suggests that earlier retrieval exerted greater inhibition on the other item being held in short-term memory. This retrieval-induced motion repulsion could be explained neither by reduced cognitive resources for maintaining short-term memory nor by continued inhibition between short-term memory representations. These results indicate that retrieval of memory representations inhibits other representations in short-term memory. We discuss mechanisms of retrieval-induced inhibition and their implications for the structure of memory. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Evaluation of Short Term Memory Span Function In Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barış ERGÜL

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Although details of the information encoded in the short-term memory where it is stored temporarily be recorded in the working memory in the next stage. Repeating the information mentally makes it remain in memory for a long time. Studies investigating the relationship between short-term memory and reading skills that are carried out to examine the relationship between short-term memory processes and reading comprehension. In this study information coming to short-term memory and the factors affecting operation of short term memory are investigated with regression model. The aim of the research is to examine the factors (age, IQ and reading skills that are expected the have an effect on short-term memory in children through regression analysis. One of the assumptions of regression analysis is to examine which has constant variance and normal distribution of the error term. In this study, because the error term is not normally distributed, robust regression techniques were applied. Also, for each technique; coefficient of determination is determined. According to the findings, the increase in age, IQ and reading skills caused the increase in short term memory in children. After applying robust regression techniques, the Winsorized Least Squares (WLS technique gives the highest coefficient of determination.

  10. Moisture management, energy density and fuel quality in forest fuel supply chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tahvanainen, T. [Joensuu Science Park Ltd., Joensuu (Finland); Sikanen, L. [Joensuu Univ. (Finland); Roser, D. [Finnish Forest Research Inst., Joensuu (Finland)

    2009-07-01

    This presentation provided tools for reducing the moisture content (MC) in wood chips, as moisture is one of the main quality factors for woody biomass, along with energy density and cleanness. The amount of water in solid wood fuels has a considerable effect on transportation efficiency, combustion efficiency and emissions. Under favourable storage conditions, MC can be decreased from typical fresh cut 50-55 per cent to 20-30 per cent in relatively short periods of storing by natural or artificial drying. Minor modifications can boost natural drying in fuel wood supply chains. This natural drying effect can have significant effects on the total energy efficiency and emissions of supply chains. The effect of improved packing density on transportation phase was discussed along with the need to control chip purity and size distribution. A procedure developed at the University of Joensuu and in the Finnish Forest Research Institute was used to estimate transportation costs and emissions according to transportation fleet and MC of the transported fuel. tabs., figs.

  11. Mitigation of short-term disturbance negative impacts in the agent-based model of a production companies network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shevchuk, G. K.; Berg, D. B.; Zvereva, O. M.; Medvedeva, M. A.

    2017-11-01

    This article is devoted to the study of a supply chain disturbance impact on manufacturing volumes in a production system network. Each network agent's product can be used as a resource by other system agents (manufacturers). A supply chain disturbance can lead to operating cease of the entire network. Authors suggest using of short-term partial resources reservation to mitigate negative consequences of such disturbances. An agent-based model with a reservation algorithm compatible with strategies for resource procurement in terms of financial constraints was engineered. This model works in accordance with the static input-output Leontief 's model. The results can be used for choosing the ways of system's stability improving, and protecting it from various disturbances and imbalance.

  12. World uranium reserves and assurance of energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warnecke, S.J.

    1980-01-01

    This book deals mainly with those aspects of energy policy which concern uranium supply. A different complexion is put on the quantitative estimates of world uranium supplies available which are being overshadowed by political problems resulting from the special properties of this primary energy source as well as from its geographical distribution. The national policy of non-proliferation and the resource policy are demonstrated, taking the largest uranium supply countries as examples. The consumers' policy is explained, taking Europe and Japan as an example. Furthermore, a few possible political solutions are suggested. (UA) [de

  13. Metabolic modelling to support long term strategic decisions on water supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciriello, Valentina; Felisa, Giada; Lauriola, Ilaria; Pomanti, Flavio; Di Federico, Vittorio

    2017-04-01

    Water resources are essential for the economic development and sustenance of anthropic activities belonging to the civil, agricultural and industrial sectors. Nevertheless, availability of water resources is not uniformly distributed in space and time. Moreover, the increasing water demand, mainly due to population growth and expansion of agricultural crops, may cause increasing water stress conditions, if combined with the effects of climate change. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to improve the resilience of water supply systems both in terms of infrastructures and environmental compliance. Metabolic modelling approaches represent a flexible tool able to provide support to decision making in the long term, based on sustainability criteria. These approaches mimic the water supply network through a set of material and energy fluxes that interact and influence each other. By analyzing these fluxes, a suite of key performance indicators is evaluated in order to identify which kind of interventions may be applied to increase the sustainability of the system. Here, we adopt these concepts to analyze the water supply network of Reggio-Emilia (Italy) which is supported by water withdrawals from both surface water and groundwater bodies. We analyze different scenarios, including possible reduction of water withdrawals from one of the different sources as a consequence of a decrease in water availability under present and future scenarios. On these basis, we identify preventive strategies for a dynamic management of the water supply system.

  14. Ideas on a competitive structure for German energy supplies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennigsen-Foerder, R v

    1985-12-20

    The author expresses the future need for action on the part of energy policy at Federal level in no uncertain terms. Regional experiments in energy policy and state-induced limits on competition in the heat market have documented the fact that watchfulness is to be recommended even in a relatively relaxed energy market. The author does admit that the level of electricity prices in the Federal Republic is comparatively high; overall, however, energy prices are in line with the world market situation. This can only be explained by deliberate renunciation of extensive state control of the primary energy structure. The competitiveness of German energy supplies can thus be closely linked up to the question as to what strategy will be pursued with regard to preparations for 'crisis contingency X', i.e. for another sudden explosion of energy costs. The author supports the thesis 'that it is more expensive from the point of view of the economy as a whole to prepare ex-ante for 'Day X' than it is to adapt to it ex-post'.

  15. Evaluation of Short Term Memory Span Function In Children

    OpenAIRE

    Barış ERGÜL; Arzu ALTIN YAVUZ; Ebru GÜNDOĞAN AŞIK

    2016-01-01

    Although details of the information encoded in the short-term memory where it is stored temporarily be recorded in the working memory in the next stage. Repeating the information mentally makes it remain in memory for a long time. Studies investigating the relationship between short-term memory and reading skills that are carried out to examine the relationship between short-term memory processes and reading comprehension. In this study information coming to short-term memory and the factors ...

  16. Short-term Memory as a Processing Shift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis-Smith, Marion Quinn

    1975-01-01

    The series of experiments described here examined the predictions for free recall from sequential models and the shift formulation, focusing on the roles of short- and long-term memory in the primacy/recency shift and on the effects of expectancies on short- and long-term memory. (Author/RK)

  17. β-Glucan and Dark Chocolate: A Randomized Crossover Study on Short-Term Satiety and Energy Intake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asli Akyol

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The aims of this study were to adapt a traditional recipe into a healthier form by adding 3 g of oat β-glucan, substituting milk chocolate to dark chocolate with 70% cocoa, and to examine the effect of these alterations on short-term satiety and energy intake. Materials and Methods: Study subjects (n = 25 were tested in a randomized, crossover design with four products closely matched for energy content. Four different versions of a traditional recipe including milk chocolate-control (CON, oat β-glucan (B-GLU, dark chocolate (DARK or oat β-glucan and dark chocolate (B-GLU + DARK were given to subjects on different test days. After subjects were asked to report visual analog scale (VAS scores on sensory outcomes and related satiety for four hours ad libitum, lunch was served and energy intake of individuals was measured. Results: VAS scores indicated that none of the test foods exerted an improved effect on satiety feelings. However, energy intake of individuals during ad libitum lunch was significantly lower in dark chocolate groups (CON: 849.46 ± 47.45 kcal versus DARK: 677.69 ± 48.45 kcal and B-GLU + DARK: 691.08 ± 47.45 kcal, p = 0.014. Conclusion: The study demonstrated that substituting dark chocolate for milk chocolate is more effective in inducing satiety during subsequent food intake in healthy subjects.

  18. β-Glucan and dark chocolate: a randomized crossover study on short-term satiety and energy intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akyol, Asli; Dasgin, Halil; Ayaz, Aylin; Buyuktuncer, Zehra; Besler, H Tanju

    2014-09-23

    The aims of this study were to adapt a traditional recipe into a healthier form by adding 3 g of oat β-glucan, substituting milk chocolate to dark chocolate with 70% cocoa, and to examine the effect of these alterations on short-term satiety and energy intake. Study subjects (n = 25) were tested in a randomized, crossover design with four products closely matched for energy content. Four different versions of a traditional recipe including milk chocolate-control (CON), oat β-glucan (B-GLU), dark chocolate (DARK) or oat β-glucan and dark chocolate (B-GLU + DARK) were given to subjects on different test days. After subjects were asked to report visual analog scale (VAS) scores on sensory outcomes and related satiety for four hours ad libitum, lunch was served and energy intake of individuals was measured. VAS scores indicated that none of the test foods exerted an improved effect on satiety feelings. However, energy intake of individuals during ad libitum lunch was significantly lower in dark chocolate groups (CON: 849.46 ± 47.45 kcal versus DARK: 677.69 ± 48.45 kcal and B-GLU + DARK: 691.08 ± 47.45 kcal, p = 0.014). The study demonstrated that substituting dark chocolate for milk chocolate is more effective in inducing satiety during subsequent food intake in healthy subjects.

  19. Simple analysis of very long term proceses without operational and emergency energy supply in the PWR power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benedek, S.

    1983-01-01

    Published calculational methods are cited and used for examination of PWR transients after a loss-of-coolant accident. For different sizes of breaks and breakdown of the pumps the long term transients - without operational and emergency power supply - were calculated. The results show the critical time interval until the operational or emergency/safety water pump/supply should be made into operation to avoid the core heat-up, melt down and the large radioactive issue. (orig.)

  20. Energy supply today and tomorrow, national and global

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, G.

    2003-01-01

    A status report about 'Energy Supply Today and Tomorrow, National and Global' focuses mainly on global aspects. Today's world energy consumption is dominated by more than 80% of fossil sources of energy followed by so-called non-commercial energies, such as wood and plant and animal wastes, contributing 10%; nuclear power, 7%; and hydroelectric power, 2%. The development of energy consumption until the middle of this century will continue to be driven by the further growth of the world population, and by the need to meet the rising demand for energy in the developing countries. Because of their availability and flexible uses, oil, natural gas, and coal as fossil sources of energy will continue to meet a considerable share of the requirement. The use of nuclear power, a source meeting all criteria, such as safety, waste management, and competitiveness, is both justifiable and desirable. Restrictive decisions about nuclear power taken today must not impair the freedom of choice of future generations. Using renewable energies is just as desirable as increasing energy efficiency; however, the technical and physical potentials available for this purpose should not be overrated. This makes it imperative to protect the supply of energy 'in this difficult interim phase' with all the options available, and to open up prospects for the future, also by conducting the appropriate energy and environmental research. The balance between continuity of supply, environmental compatibility, and competitiveness must be taken into account in this effort. In the second half of the 21 st century, it is possible that energy consumption will stabilize when the world's population ceases to grow. New technologies, some of which may not even be known today or may still be under development, could then pave the way for an energy supply system which, in toto, would be less of a burden on the environment. (orig.)

  1. Short-term Treatment of Daumone Improves Hepatic Inflammation in Aged Mice

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Jong Hee; Ha, Hunjoo

    2015-01-01

    Chronic inflammation has been proposed as one of the main molecular mechanisms of aging and age-related diseases. Although evidence in humans is limited, short-term calorie restriction (CR) has been shown to have anti-inflammatory effects in aged experimental animals. We reported on the long-term treatment of daumone, a synthetic pheromone secreted by Caenorhabditis elegans in an energy deficient environment, extends the life-span and attenuates liver injury in aged mice. The present study ex...

  2. The renewable and nuclear energies in the basquet of energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez Corcoles, F.

    2008-01-01

    The share of nuclear and renewable sources in the energy portfolio yields great benefits to all stake holders and that both sources are not exclusive each other but offer multiple complementary features and synergy's, therefore both technologies should be part of the present and future energy mix. This portfolio should be enough and reliable all the time, guarantee the security of supply, protect the environment and give competitive prices. All these features are to a great extent met by nuclear and renewable technologies and therefore they should play an important role on world and national energy supply. (Author)

  3. On the relationship between short- and long-term memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik

    James (1890) divided memory into separate stores; primary and secondary – or short-term and long-term memory. The interaction between the two stores often assumes that information initially is represented in volatile short-term store before entering and consolidating in the more durable long-term......, accepted). Counter to popular beliefs this suggest that long-term memory precedes short-term memory and not vice versa....... memory system (e.g. Atkinson & Shiffrin, 1968). Short-term memory seems to provide a surprising processing bottleneck where only a very limited amount of information can be represented at any given moment (Miller, 1956; Cowan, 2001). A number of studies have investigated the nature of this processing...

  4. Energy policy in Baden-Wuerttemberg. Short version of the energy concept for 2020; Energiepolitik in Baden-Wuerttemberg. Kurzfassung des Energiekonzepts 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-01-15

    The realisation of an energy supply that is safe, economically efficient and environmentally friendly presupposes committed, non-judgemental cooperation between the economy, the public at large and the political realm. For this purpose the state government of Baden Wuerttemberg has summarised the key points of what constitutes a sustainable energy policy in its ''Energy concept for Baden-Wuerttemberg until 2020'', which was passed by the state cabinet on 27 July 2009. The present brochure is a short version of this energy concept. Its purpose is to inform the public at large about the principles of Baden-Wuerttemberg's energy policy.

  5. Energy Supply and Demand Planning Aspects in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomsic, M.; Urbancic, A.; Al Mansour, F.; Merse, S.

    1997-01-01

    Slovenia can be considered a sufficiently homogenous region, even though specific climatic conditions exist in some parts of the country. Urban regions with high energy consumptions density differ in logistic aspects and in the potential of renewable energy sources. The difference in household energy demand is not significant. The planning study is based on the ''Integrated Resource Planning'' approach. A novel energy planning tool, the MESAP-PlaNet energy system model, supplemented by auxiliary models of technology penetration, electricity demand analysis and optimal expansion planning (the WASP package) has been used. The following segments has been treated in detail: industry, households and both central and local supply systems. Three intensities of energy efficiency strategies are compared: Reference, Moderate and Intensive. The intensity of demand side management programs influence the level and dynamics of activation of conservation potentials. Energy tax is considered in the Moderate and Intensive strategies. On the supply side the issue of domestic coal use is discussed. Reduction in the use of coal is linked to energy efficiency strategies. It has been found that energy efficiency strategies consistently improve economic efficiency, security of supply and protection of health and environment. The only conflicting area is social acceptability, due to both the energy tax reform and the loss of mining jobs. (author)

  6. Short-term memory and long-term memory are still different.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Dennis

    2017-09-01

    A commonly expressed view is that short-term memory (STM) is nothing more than activated long-term memory. If true, this would overturn a central tenet of cognitive psychology-the idea that there are functionally and neurobiologically distinct short- and long-term stores. Here I present an updated case for a separation between short- and long-term stores, focusing on the computational demands placed on any STM system. STM must support memory for previously unencountered information, the storage of multiple tokens of the same type, and variable binding. None of these can be achieved simply by activating long-term memory. For example, even a simple sequence of digits such as "1, 3, 1" where there are 2 tokens of the digit "1" cannot be stored in the correct order simply by activating the representations of the digits "1" and "3" in LTM. I also review recent neuroimaging data that has been presented as evidence that STM is activated LTM and show that these data are exactly what one would expect to see based on a conventional 2-store view. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Modeling sustainable long-term electricity supply-demand in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouedraogo, Nadia S.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • This study is one of the first detailed and complete representation of the African power system. • It models, within LEAP, possible future paths for the regional power systems. • All the end-users and supply side activities and actors are considered. • Three scenarios are examined: the baseline, the renewable energy, and the energy efficiency. • The energy efficiency scenario has allowed to draw a sustainable pathway for electrification. - Abstract: This paper develops a scenario-based model to identify and provide an array of electricity demand in Africa, and to derive them from the African power system of development. A system-based approach is performed by applying the scenario methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’. Four scenarios are investigated. The Business as Usual scenario (BAU) replicates the regional and national Master Plans. The renewable-promotion scenario increases the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix. The demand and supply side efficiency scenarios investigate the impact of energy efficiency measures on the power system. The results show an increase in electricity demand by 4% by 2040, supply shortages and high emissions of Greenhouse Gases. Contrary to expectations, the renewable energy scenario did not emerge as the best solution to a sustainable electrification of the region. The energy efficiency scenarios have allowed us to draw a sustainable pathway for electrification.

  8. Fast Weight Long Short-Term Memory

    OpenAIRE

    Keller, T. Anderson; Sridhar, Sharath Nittur; Wang, Xin

    2018-01-01

    Associative memory using fast weights is a short-term memory mechanism that substantially improves the memory capacity and time scale of recurrent neural networks (RNNs). As recent studies introduced fast weights only to regular RNNs, it is unknown whether fast weight memory is beneficial to gated RNNs. In this work, we report a significant synergy between long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and fast weight associative memories. We show that this combination, in learning associative retrie...

  9. A model-based analysis for the improvement of electrical energy supply of future offshore windparks by means of biogas technology; Modellbasierte Analyse zur Verbesserung der elektrischen Energiebereitstellung zukuenftiger Offshore-Windparks mittels Biogastechnologie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tigges, Martin

    2010-09-06

    Since the beginning of industrial revolution energy supply in Germany was based on fossil fuels. Climatic change, the greenhouse effect, the growth of population on the one hand and shortage on fossil fuels on the other hand and the will to be independent from importing resources from political instable countries are calling for serious changes. The primary modernisation of the current energy supply needs to target a sustainable, generation comprehensive solution. The use of renewable fuels is necessary. Wind energy usage is one of the most promising alternatives within the short-term to middle-term planning of environmental policy. As in Germany nearly all potential habitats on mainland already are tapped, significant development potential is seen at offshore habitats in North as well as Baltic Sea. Germany aims for the allotment of up to 25 GW of offshore wind energy in the North and Baltic Sea till 2025. Electricity generation by wind energy plants subjects to the conditions the volatile characteristics of the wind. Within the planned big offshore wind energy farms comprising more than 80 plants changes in wind velocity as well as directions will lead to fluctuations in energy supply. Up to now the plant resource scheduling needed to react on the users demand. The further development of wind energy and the differences between forecasted and actual wind energy feeds do and will hinder this resource scheduling. New approaches need to be found to be able to ensure the security of energy supplies in Germany. These approaches should be sustainable and therefore be based on the usage of renewable fuels. Within this dissertation possible solutions as well as constraints of the usage of biogas as a nearly CO2 neutral fuel in combination with micro gas turbines adapted to the usage with biogas plants to be able to align the differences between forecasted and actual wind energy supply for a future offshore wind energy plant park are analysed. This combination allows an

  10. Panorama 2014 - Short term trends in the gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecarpentier, Armelle

    2013-12-01

    Due to sustained competition between energy sources and an economic and geopolitical climate that is still unstable, gas growth has slowed. The year 2013 looks very mixed for the gas industry, particularly on the upstream side. Constraints on the supply of gas and the increased dependence on imports in consumer markets increase the vulnerability of the gas markets to the vagaries of geopolitical risks and result in tensions on the international market. In an environment full of uncertainties about future prices and contractual terms, investors are slow to initiate the projects necessary for a global gas balance in this decade. (author)

  11. ENERGY STAR Certified Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Certified models meet all ENERGY STAR requirements as listed in the Version 1.0 ENERGY STAR Program Requirements for Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment that are...

  12. A Novel Hybrid Model for Short-Term Forecasting in PV Power Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan-Kang Wu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The increasing use of solar power as a source of electricity has led to increased interest in forecasting its power output over short-time horizons. Short-term forecasts are needed for operational planning, switching sources, programming backup, reserve usage, and peak load matching. However, the output of a photovoltaic (PV system is influenced by irradiation, cloud cover, and other weather conditions. These factors make it difficult to conduct short-term PV output forecasting. In this paper, an experimental database of solar power output, solar irradiance, air, and module temperature data has been utilized. It includes data from the Green Energy Office Building in Malaysia, the Taichung Thermal Plant of Taipower, and National Penghu University. Based on the historical PV power and weather data provided in the experiment, all factors that influence photovoltaic-generated energy are discussed. Moreover, five types of forecasting modules were developed and utilized to predict the one-hour-ahead PV output. They include the ARIMA, SVM, ANN, ANFIS, and the combination models using GA algorithm. Forecasting results show the high precision and efficiency of this combination model. Therefore, the proposed model is suitable for ensuring the stable operation of a photovoltaic generation system.

  13. Hardwood supply in the Pacific Northwest-a policy perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry L. Raettig; Kent P. Connaughton; Glenn R. Ahrens

    1995-01-01

    The policy framework for the hardwood resource and hardwood industry in western Oregon and Washington is examined. Harvesting trends, harvesting behavior of public and private landowners, and harvesting regulation are presented to complete the analysis of factors affecting short-run hardwood supply. In the short term, the supply of hardwoods is generally favorable, but...

  14. Perspectives for a global energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krafft, P.

    1987-01-01

    The economic development of the industrial world and the population explosion in the Third World will lead to a further increase in world energy consumption. Up to the year 2020 a doubling of today's consumption must be reckoned with. Further increases may be necessary in order to raise the per capita consumption of the population in the Third World. In order to meet this increasing demand it is necessary to consider all available energy sources. The nonrenewable energy sources oil, coal, gas and uranium will have to carry a greater proportion than the current 80 %. The resources suffice for that. However many obstacles must be surmounted in order to secure an essentially increasing energy production. Shortage symptoms with oil are to be expected within a foreseeable space of time. Only coal and nuclear energy can close the gap. In order to avert adverse effects on the climate, CO 2 emissions must be controlled. This can best be achieved by promoting water power, solar energy and nuclear energy as the principal sources. The postulates of the Swiss energy policy 'saving', 'substitution', 'research' and 'provision' seek to guarantee the energy supply. The promotion of hydro, solar and nuclear power must be added. The postulate of a withdrawal from nuclear energy is untenable considering its worldwide development. It would retard Switzerland in its pursuit of supply security and a better environment. 6 figs

  15. Optimizing energy for a ‘green’ vaccine supply chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, John; McCarney, Steve; Ouhichi, Ramzi; Lydon, Patrick; Zaffran, Michel

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes an approach piloted in the Kasserine region of Tunisia to increase the energy efficiency of the distribution of vaccines and temperature sensitive drugs. The objectives of an approach, known as the ‘net zero energy’ (NZE) supply chain were demonstrated within the first year of operation. The existing distribution system was modified to store vaccines and medicines in the same buildings and to transport them according to pre-scheduled and optimized delivery circuits. Electric utility vehicles, dedicated to the integrated delivery of vaccines and medicines, improved the regularity and reliability of the supply chains. Solar energy, linked to the electricity grid at regional and district stores, supplied over 100% of consumption meeting all energy needs for storage, cooling and transportation. Significant benefits to the quality and costs of distribution were demonstrated. Supply trips were scheduled, integrated and reliable, energy consumption was reduced, the recurrent cost of electricity was eliminated and the release of carbon to the atmosphere was reduced. Although the initial capital cost of scaling up implementation of NZE remain high today, commercial forecasts predict cost reduction for solar energy and electric vehicles that may permit a step-wise implementation over the next 7–10 years. Efficiency in the use of energy and in the deployment of transport is already a critical component of distribution logistics in both private and public sectors of industrialized countries. The NZE approach has an intensified rationale in countries where energy costs threaten the maintenance of public health services in areas of low population density. In these countries where the mobility of health personnel and timely arrival of supplies is at risk, NZE has the potential to reduce energy costs and release recurrent budget to other needs of service delivery while also improving the supply chain. PMID:25444811

  16. An energy-harvesting power supply for underwater bridge scour monitoring sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuli; Li, Yingjie; He, Longzhuang; Shamsi, Pourya; Zheng, Yahong R.

    2018-03-01

    The natural force of scouring has become one of the most critical risk endangering the endurance of bridges, thus leading to the necessity of deploying underwater monitoring sensors to actively detect potential scour holes under bridges. Due to the difficulty in re-charging batteries for underwater sensors, super capacitors with energy harvesting (EH) means are exploited to prolong the sustainability of underwater sensors. In this paper, an energy harvesting power supply based on a helical turbine is proposed to power underwater monitoring sensors. A small helical turbine is designed to convert water flow energy to electrical energy with favorable environmental robustness. A 3-inch diameter, 2.5-inch length and 3-bladed helical turbine was designed with two types of waterproof coupling with the sensor housing. Both designs were prototyped and tested under different flow conditions and we get valid voltage around 0.91 V which is enough to power monitoring sensor. The alternating current (AC) electrical energy generated by the helical turbine is then rectified and boosted to drive a DC charger for efficiently charging one super capacitor. The charging circuit was designed, prototyped and tested thoroughly with the helical turbine harvester. The results were promising, that the overall power supply can power an underwater sensor node with wireless transceivers for long-term operations

  17. Energy security of supply and oil shale resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elkarmi, F.

    1994-01-01

    Jordan must utilize its huge oil shale deposits in order to increase domestic security of energy supply and benefit financially. Utilization processes will require large scale financial expenditures, beyond Jordan's means. Therefore, the BOT scheme seems to be the perfects solution. Since oil shale retorting technology will produce oil which can be traded to generate valuable foreign exchange revenues, it is more advantageous than direct burning technology which produces electricity limited to local consumption regardless of economics. Under the BOT scheme, the incentive, for the foreign sponsor is to return his investment via quantities of oil; for Jordan the aim is to meet local energy demand and acquire the plant infrastructure in the long term. Recent events in the more traditional oil fields of the region make such a project in Jordan more attractive. (author) 3 tabs. 2 figs

  18. Analysis of energy demand-supply of city and evaluation of energy conservation and peak suppression of environmental symbiosis city; Toshi no energy jukyu bunseki to shoene toshi no shoene fuka heijunka koka no hyoka (kankyo kyosei sho energy wo mezashita 60 mannin shintoshi ni tsuite no kento)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iwatsubo, T.; Hashimoto, K. [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-05-01

    The paper developed an analysis method of the energy supply/demand structure of city and compared the conventional city and a city considering energy conservation. An energy supply/demand flow chart was newly proposed. From this flow chart, `energy sustainability ratios` was proposed as a new index for comprehensively evaluating two elements of the energy conservation by load reduction and heightening of energy conversion rates and the utilization of waste heat and renewable energy. A method for analysis of the energy supply/demand structure of city was developed including daily supply/demand patterns in the area where individual equipment in every residence/building correspond to the energy supply and the area where centralized energy systems such as district energy supply correspond it. From the developed analysis method, analysis was made of a newly developed city with a 0.6 million population in terms of the conventional city and energy conservation city, to clarify the present energy supply/demand structure of city and to express it in an energy flow chart. At the same time, validity of the analysis method and evaluation indexes were confirmed by comparing the conventional city and energy conservation city. 15 refs, 27 figs., 17 tabs.

  19. Long term contracts in portfolios of gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burns, D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper promotes the idea of long-term contracting for natural gas local distributors and utilities. It presents a brief history of how the spot-market developed and the effects spot-marketing can have in times of supply shortages. This has also resulted in a drastic decrease in exploration and development in the gas industry as gas supplies have exceeding demand, driving the prices down. The paper proposes several methods to restabilize the long-term contracting of gas by considering volume and pricing flexibility. Some brief discussions of industry-wide statistics are presented to show reserve replacement costs which would be needed to preserve the industry in a profit-making situation

  20. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  1. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  2. The peaceful use of nuclear energy and energy supply - national and international aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennigsen-Foerder, R. v.

    1989-01-01

    The paper concludes with a 3-item programme to summarize the need 1. to limit the nuclear energy policy of the next years to the objectives of 'safe operation of facilities without harassment by public debates' and of 'ongoing work on waste disposal'; 2) to use the years to come for organizing and implementing a supra-party process to find a new energy concept for the Federal Republic; 3) to pass the long-term nuclear energy in the mid 90-ies based on a broad parliamentary majority within a comprehensive supra-party energy consensus. Any realistic spectator will not deny the fact that common sense and reason are fairly absent from the discussions about energy and nuclear energy. However, common sense and reason will win the day in the long run - either through insight or, short of that, through coercion and sacrifices. (orig./HSCH) [de

  3. Eating energy-Identifying possibilities for reduced energy use in the future food supply system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallgren, Christine; Hoejer, Mattias

    2009-01-01

    This paper explores the possibilities for reducing future energy use for eating to a sustainable level. A backcasting approach is used to generate an image of the future where energy use for eating is 60% lower in 2050 than in 2000. The currently known potential to reduce energy use in the food supply system for producing, transporting, storing, cooking and eating food is explored and described in terms of a number of distinct changes that are numbered consecutively and presented in both a quantitative and qualitative way. Sweden is used as the case and all data regarding energy use apply for Swedish conditions. An exercise like this illustrates the possible outcome of taking sustainability seriously. If sustainability is to be achieved, some images of the future are needed so that potential targets can be identified. This paper does not present forecasts, but illustrates the kind of changes needed in order to achieve sustainable energy use in the food system.

  4. Policy implications of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand is summarized. Three broad implications concerning the future of the natural gas industry are highlighted: the residual impact of the August 1990 Gulf War on crude oil prices and the factors influencing the long-term price path, the impact of the growing number of environmental constraints on future energy use, and the effect of recent developments in gas production on future gas supply and price

  5. Digital-circuit analysis of short-gate tunnel FETs for low-voltage applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhuge, Jing; Huang, Ru; Wang, Yangyuan; Verhulst, Anne S; Vandenberghe, William G; Dehaene, Wim; Groeseneken, Guido

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates the potential of tunnel field-effect transistors (TFETs), with emphasis on short-gate TFETs, by simulation for low-power digital applications having a supply voltage lower than 0.5 V. A transient study shows that the tunneling current has a negligible contribution in charging and discharging the gate capacitance of TFETs. In spite of a higher resistance region in the short-gate TFET, the gate (dis)charging speed still meets low-voltage application requirements. A circuit analysis is performed on short-gate TFETs with different materials, such as Si, Ge and heterostructures in terms of voltage overshoot, delay, static power, energy consumption and energy delay product (EDP). These results are compared to MOSFET and full-gate TFET performance. It is concluded that short-gate heterostructure TFETs (Ge–source for nTFET, In 0.6 Ga 0.4 As–source for pTFET) are promising candidates to extend the supply voltage to lower than 0.5 V because they combine the advantage of a low Miller capacitance, due to the short-gate structures, and strong drive current in TFETs, due to the narrow bandgap material in the source. At a supply voltage of 0.4 V and for an EOT and channel length of 0.6 nm and 40 nm, respectively, a three-stage inverter chain based on short-gate heterostructure TFETs saves 40% energy consumption per cycle at the same delay and shows 60%–75% improvement of EDP at the same static power, compared to its full-gate counterpart. When compared to the MOSFET, better EDP can be achieved in the heterostructure TFET especially at low static power consumption

  6. FORMING OF THE SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY CHAINS BASED ON INCREASING OF THEIR INTEGRATED ENERGY EFFICIENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SHVETS V. J.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Key challenges and barriers of mining machinery enterprises in the context of forming sustainable supply chains in the mining industry are specified. Methodology. The algorithm of forming the industrial relations, which are carried out by the enterprises of mining machinery in order to increase the sustainable development of a mining industry, is offered. Conclusions.. Modern supply chains are confronted with dynamic trends and developments that are hard to predict. In order to respond to these changes and remain competitive advantage, companies should be able to identify and understand new sustainability issues in their branches. It is established that in the conditions of globalization of the market and the general orientation of Ukraine’s economy to the European principles of development, for mining machinery enterprises a proof of the commitment and observance of requirements of energy efficiency, i.e. energy saving, energy safety and social energy responsibility are very important. Supply channels should increase not only energy efficiency, economic and production stability of the company, but also strengthen the stability of all participants in the production chain, as well as other stakeholders (business partners, customers, investors, local communities, etc.. Originality. The interrelation of an indicator of energy efficiency in forming sustainable supply chain in a mining industry is established. Practical value. Using the principles of sustainable development in the forming of value chains will improve energy efficiency of industry in general; provide a competitive advantage to entry into the global production chains in terms of European integration of Ukraine.

  7. Energy demand and supply prompts record results for Canadian companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2005-01-01

    The Canadian energy industry has shown consistent growth in recent years. This trend is expected to continue due high energy prices resulting from concerns regarding energy supply and increased demand for energy. The 2005 annual survey by Pricewaterhouse Coopers states that Canadian energy sectors have seen average revenues grow by 12.4 per cent from $934 million to $1.05 billion for conventional companies and by 30.5 per cent from $285 million to $372 million for income trusts. The survey provides a summary of Canada's energy industry, including crude oil, natural gas, oil and gas services, oil sands and electricity. The financial and operating information of the top 100 Canadian public oil and gas companies is also summarized, along with 31 oil and gas income trusts. The survey found that crude oil prices were influenced by price volatility and record highs in 2004. Price volatility was due to global political tensions, increased demand from China, India and the United States and lower crude supplies in the United States. Production of Canadian crude, including conventional, synthetic crude, heavy crude, natural gas and natural gas from liquids continued to increase in 2004. A strong pricing environment will likely continue, according to industry expectations, due to political instability in the Middle East and OPEC's tight crude supply strategy. Strong pricing is expected to enhance natural gas economics and promote increased capital investment and production. In 2004, the oil and gas service industry drilled a record 21,593 wells in Western Canada and a record 28,630 drilling permits will be issued. In 2004, there was also a strong demand for field services and improvements in many manufacturing firms. Production from Canadian oil sands in 2004 was over 1 million barrels per day. An estimated 174 billion barrels of oil lie within the oil sands, making Canada the second largest country in terms of global proven crude oil reserves. Several oil sands projects have

  8. Improving creativity performance by short-term meditation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background One form of meditation intervention, the integrative body-mind training (IBMT) has been shown to improve attention, reduce stress and change self-reports of mood. In this paper we examine whether short-term IBMT can improve performance related to creativity and determine the role that mood may play in such improvement. Methods Forty Chinese undergraduates were randomly assigned to short-term IBMT group or a relaxation training (RT) control group. Mood and creativity performance were assessed by the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) and Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking (TTCT) questionnaire respectively. Results As predicted, the results indicated that short-term (30 min per day for 7 days) IBMT improved creativity performance on the divergent thinking task, and yielded better emotional regulation than RT. In addition, cross-lagged analysis indicated that both positive and negative affect may influence creativity in IBMT group (not RT group). Conclusions Our results suggested that emotion-related creativity-promoting mechanism may be attributed to short-term meditation. PMID:24645871

  9. Energy supply and use in a rural West African village

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Nathan G.; Bryden, Kenneth M.

    2012-01-01

    Over three billion people live in the rural areas of low- and middle-income countries. Often rural households have many unmet energy needs, including cooking, lighting, heating, transportation, and telecommunication. Designing solutions to meet these needs requires an understanding of the human, natural, and engineered systems that drive village energy dynamics. This paper presents the results of a novel study of energy supply and use over a one year period in an isolated rural village of 770 people in Mali. Quantitative data and narrative descriptions from this study portray village energy supply and use. Annual village energy use is 6000 MJ cap −1 yr −1 . Domestic energy needs account for 93% of village energy use. Wood is the primary energy source and provides 94% of the village energy supply. Approximately 98% of the wood is used for domestic consumption. The uses of wood in the home are cooking (52.2%), heating water (22.2%), space heating (19.1%), and other activities (6.5%). This paper also reports variations in energy usage over the period of a year for a broad range of domestic, artisan, transport, and public energy uses. -- Highlights: ► Village energy supply and use is driven by human, natural, and engineered systems. ► Village energy use varies by 250% between the hot and cold seasons. ► Domestic wood consumption accounts for 92% of village energy. ► Solar PV cells and batteries supply power to pumps, lights, and personal electronics. ► Every household uses multiple energy sources to meet basic needs.

  10. Energy efficiency in a water supply system:Energy consumption and CO2 emission

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Helena M.RAMOS; Filipe VIEIRA; Didia I.C.COVAS

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents important fundamentals associated with water and energy efficiency and highlights the importance of using renewable energy sources.A model of multi-criteria optimization for energy efficiency based on water and environmental management policies,including the preservation of water resources and the control of water pressure and energy consumption through a hybrid energy solution,was developed and applied to a water supply system.The methodology developed includes three solutions:(1)the use of a water turbine in pipe systems where pressures are higher than necessary and pressure-reducing valves are installed,(2)the optimization of pumping operation according to the electricity tariff and water demand,and(3)the use of other renewable energy sources,including a wind turbine,to supply energy to the pumping station,with the remaining energy being sold to the national electric grid.The use of an integrated solution(water and energy)proves to be a valuable input for creating benefits from available hydro energy in the water supply system in order to produce clean power,and the use of a wind source allows for the reduction of energy consumption in pumping stations,as well as of the CO2 emission to the atmosphere.

  11. Electrical energy supply with permanent energy sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-05-01

    It can be shown that there are no chances for solar and wind power plants in Northern Europe when estimating the investment costs and the floor space required. However, the decentralized utilization of the plants which is likely to become very interesting in a few years shows other results. As a complete annual balance by traditional stores would cause a considerably uneconomic increase of the investment costs supplementary energy sources are inevitable. The author points out how the various primary energy sources in question can be utilized and combined with each other. He describes the converters for the permanent (regenerative) energy sources, the available electrochemical stores and their application as well as the fundamental structures of the energy supply systems. Finally some advice is given regarding the recycling of energy and the operation by the consumers.

  12. Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

  13. Long-term security in energy supplies - the contribution of coal; Dlugofalowe bezpieczenstwo w dostawach energii - udzial wegla

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiffer, W. [RWE Power AG, Essen (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    The paper presents the case for coal as an important pillar in a wide and balanced mix of energy sources. Both domestic lignite and hard coal can be made available at relatively low cost. With coal powering power plants it is possible to achieve all energy policy goals of economic efficiency, security of supply and environmental compatibility. The paper includes much information on the global coal trade, particularly seaborne trade. 4 refs., 26 figs.

  14. Problems in clinical practice of domestic supply of 99Mo/99mTc. The direction and problem of stable supply chain of 99Mo in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Tomio

    2013-01-01

    The shortage of supply of 99 Mo caused by trouble of old nuclear reactors in Canada and Europe caused international problem in the field of nuclear medicine, which has not been completely resolved yet. Because all of 99 Mo/ 99m Tc generator in Japan has been imported, Japan Atomic Energy Commission (JAEC) suggested the necessity of establishment of stable supply chain of 99 Mo ( 99 Mo/ 99m Tc generator). According this suggestion, an ad hoc committee appointed to consider the stable supply chain, which consisted of persons concerned with industry, academic society, Japan Isotope Association, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT), Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW), Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), National Institute of Radiological Science (NIRS) et al., evaluated and compared several ways of production and purification of 99 Mo from the view point of technological maturity, regulation compatibility, economic suitability, and stability for supply. In this review, the summary of the committee report is introduced. For short term strategy, we need to keep the variable import routes for 99 Mo. As a mid-term goal, we need to establish the supply chain inside Japan as a conclusion of the committee report but it seems to be not easy for utility of nuclear reactor after nuclear accident of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. The development of the method for 99 Mo/ 99m Tc production using accelerator is also expected for the establishment of stable supply chain. (author)

  15. The Structure and Content of Long-Term and Short-Term Mate Preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter K. Jonason

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses two limitations in the mate preferences literature. First, research all-too-often relies on single-item assessments of mate preferences precluding more advanced statistical techniques like factor analysis. Second, when factor analysis could be done, it exclusively has done for long-term mate preferences, at the exclusion of short-term mate preferences. In this study (N = 401, we subjected 20 items designed to measure short- and long-term mate preferences to both principle components (n = 200 and confirmatory factor analysis (n = 201. In the long-term context, we replicated previous findings that there are three different categories of preferences: physical attractiveness, interpersonal warmth, and social status. In the short-term context, physical attractiveness occupied two parts of the structure, social status dropped out, and interpersonal warmth remained. Across short- and long-term contexts, there were slight changes in what defined the shared dimensions (i.e., physical attractiveness and interpersonal warmth, suggesting prior work that applies the same inventory to each context might be flawed. We also replicated sex differences and similarities in mate preferences and correlates with sociosexuality and mate value. We adopt an evolutionary paradigm to understand our results.

  16. Rwanda after the war: supply and rational management of biomass energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hategeka, A.

    1997-01-01

    This chapter discusses the effects of the war in Rwanda on biomass energy and biomass energy supply. Seven projects identified to be carried out immediately involve rationalisation of biomass energy use in urban and rural areas, supplying charcoal from forest thinnings, rehabilitation of damaged forests, examination of the feasibility of peat extraction, urban supply of peat, wood energy conservation, and pilot production of papyrus briquettes. (UK)

  17. Implications of high renewable electricity penetration in the U.S. for water use, greenhouse gas emissions, land-use, and materials supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arent, Doug; Pless, Jacquelyn; Mai, Trieu; Wiser, Ryan; Hand, Maureen; Baldwin, Sam; Heath, Garvin; Macknick, Jordan; Bazilian, Morgan; Schlosser, Adam; Denholm, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Renewable electricity generation could supply 80% of U.S. generation in 2050. • GHGs are reduced proportionally and water use is reduced by 50%. • Gross land-use impacts total less than 3% of land area of the contiguous U.S. • Some clean energy technologies rely on materials that face short-term risks. • No insurmountable long-term constraints to materials supply were identified. - Abstract: Recent work found that renewable energy could supply 80% of electricity demand in the contiguous United States in 2050 at the hourly level. This paper explores some of the implications of achieving such high levels of renewable electricity for supply chains and the environment in scenarios with renewable supply up to such levels. Expanding the renewable electricity supply at this scale by 2050 implies annual capacity additions of roughly 20 gigawatts per year (GW/year) over the next decade, rising to roughly 40 GW/year from 2040 to 2050. Given total 2012 renewable electricity capacity additions of slightly more than 16 GW, this suggests moderate growth of the related supply chains, averaging overall roughly 4% annual growth to 2040. Transitioning to high renewable electricity supply would lead to significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and water use, with only modest land-use implications. While renewable energy expansion implies moderate growth of the renewable electricity supply chains, no insurmountable long-term constraints to renewable electricity technology manufacturing capacity or materials supply are identified

  18. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Decomposition-Based Neural Networks Combining Abnormal Detection Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuejun Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As one of the most promising renewable resources in electricity generation, wind energy is acknowledged for its significant environmental contributions and economic competitiveness. Because wind fluctuates with strong variation, it is quite difficult to describe the characteristics of wind or to estimate the power output that will be injected into the grid. In particular, short-term wind speed forecasting, an essential support for the regulatory actions and short-term load dispatching planning during the operation of wind farms, is currently regarded as one of the most difficult problems to be solved. This paper contributes to short-term wind speed forecasting by developing two three-stage hybrid approaches; both are combinations of the five-three-Hanning (53H weighted average smoothing method, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD algorithm, and nonlinear autoregressive (NAR neural networks. The chosen datasets are ten-minute wind speed observations, including twelve samples, and our simulation indicates that the proposed methods perform much better than the traditional ones when addressing short-term wind speed forecasting problems.

  19. Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    How much oil will the world consume in 2011? What role will OPEC play in global oil production? Will biofuels become an important part of the oil market? The International Energy Agencys (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report tackles these questions, adopting a perspective that goes beyond the traditional short-term market analysis provided in the IEAs monthly Oil Market Report. Drawing on current futures curves and the investment threshold for upstream projects, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report analyses how global demand and supply balances may develop in the next five years. The forecasts look in detail at product demand and the supply potential from all the firmly planned individual upstream and downstream projects around the world. The results provide invaluable insights on vital issues such as surplus production capacity and product supply. The rapid pace of change in the oil market means that forecasts can become outdated very quickly. This interim update provides the opportunity to rebase the data and forecasts in the annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report and to discuss and analyse new issues affecting the oil industry. Policymakers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following trends in the oil market should find this report extremely useful.

  20. Planning of the district heating system in copenhagen from an economic perspective comparing energy-savings versus fossil-free supply

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrestrup, Maria; Svendsen, Svend

    geothermal heating plants, may lead to oversized heating plants that are too expensive to build compared to implementing energy savings. Therefore reducing heat demand of existing buildings before investing in supply capacity will save society half the investment, indicating the importance of carrying out......The Danish government has adopted a long-term energy policy of being independent of fossil fuels by 2050, and that the energy supply for buildings should be independent of fossil fuels by 2035. Therefore, urgent action is needed to meet the requirements for the future energy system. One way...... of becoming independent of fossil fuels is to energy upgrade the existing building stock and change the energy supply to renewable energy sources. A sustainable way of providing space heating (SH) and domestic hot water (DHW) to buildings in densely populated areas is through the use of district heating (DH...

  1. Global energy supply the day before yesterday, the day after tomorrow, today, tomorrow - a qualitative modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, D.

    2004-01-01

    Current developments, and peak world market price levels, of oil, which add to the prices also of natural gas and other energy resources, give rise to the question whether there is any reason to expect fundamental changes and trend reversals in energy prices and on energy markets on a medium to long term basis. Attempts to find answers to such questions about the future can be helped by looking back into the more than three hundred years of global history of the development of modern industrial-sale power supply. Over that period of time, there have always been changes of boundary conditions and reversals of trends, respectively; step by step, by trial and error, a structural change has evolved from the use mainly of renewable energy resources to the primary use of fossil fuels supplemented by nuclear power. A model is presented which is able not only to describe and explain in a consistent and plausible way the global qualitative development of industrial-scale energy supply over the three different development periods, as far as contents go, between 1700 and 2100, but also allows higher resolution to be achieved in terms both of contents and time. The modeling approach is applied to the entire era of energy supply on an industrial scale, and should be seen as a representation of the specific perspective in this approach for further discussion. (orig.)

  2. On-Site or Off-Site Renewable Energy Supply Options?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marszal, Anna Joanna; Heiselberg, Per; Jensen, Rasmus Lund

    2012-01-01

    The concept of a Net Zero Energy Building (Net ZEB) encompasses two options of supplying renewable energy, which can offset energy use of a building, in particular on-site or off-site renewable energy supply. Currently, the on-site options are much more popular than the off-site; however, taking...... into consideration the limited area of roof and/or façade, primarily in the dense city areas, the Danish weather conditions, the growing interest and number of wind turbine co-ops, the off-site renewable energy supply options could become a meaningful solution for reaching ‘zero’ energy goal in the Danish context...... five technologies, i.e., two on-site options: (1) photovoltaic, (2) micro combined heat and power, and three off-site options: (1) off-site windmill, (2) share of a windmill farm and (3) purchase of green energy from the 100% renewable utility grid. The results indicate that in case of the on...

  3. City-regions and the development of sustainable energy-supply systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McEvoy, D.; Gibbs, D.C. [Hull Univ., Dept. of Geography, Hull (United Kingdom); Longhurst, J.W.S. [University of the West of England, Environmental Health and Science Dept., Bristol (United Kingdom)

    2000-07-01

    To achieve the CO{sub 2} reductions deemed necessary to limit the impact of adverse climate change will require real changes in the way we both use and supply energy. Although explicit international and national frameworks are necessary to facilitate reduction strategies, regional implementation and local initiatives are increasingly seen as having an important role to play, both in meeting national CO{sub 2} reduction targets and improving the local environment. This paper deals with supply side of the energy equation for Greater Manchester in the U.K., examining the potential for 'regional' energy supply options to contribute to a reduction in carbon intensity. By assessing actual and latent regional opportunities, the potential for achieving a more sustainable energy supply system is evaluated. (Author)

  4. Secure Energy Supply 2009. Welcome address

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slugen, V.

    2009-01-01

    In this invitation lecture professor Slugen (President of Slovak Nuclear Society and President of European Nuclear Society) invited the participants of the International Conference: Secure Energy Supply 2009.

  5. Nuclear Option for a Secure and Sustainable Energy Supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolundzija, V.; Mesarovic, M.

    2002-01-01

    Present energy policy is required to ensure a balance between security of supply, competitiveness and environmental requirements. Recent changes involved by deregulation and liberalization of electricity and natural gas markets even strengthen such a policy. However, dependency on external energy sources carries risks that have to be managed since a large proportion of both oil and gas reserves are found in politically unstable regions. Electrical energy is a fundamental prerequisite for a civilized life and an essential commodity, but it cannot be stored and this restricts the extent to which there can be a real free market for electricity. Therefore, relying on imports of electricity to a large extent may prove unsecure because this requires a true, completely open market in which the opportunities for cross-border trade are effective and balanced and transport connections are adequate. This is equally applied to the countries in the South-Eastern Europe, despite very good prospects for development of the regional electricity market there. In this regard, the use of nuclear energy has not any risk associated with external dependency because there are abundant quantities of uranium available world-wide from many diverse sources. The inherent mitigation of supply risk associated with the use of uranium should act as an incentive to the further use of nuclear energy. In addition, already very large stocks of fuel assemblies and fuel-making materials available, especially when these are measured in terms of power generating capacity per year at current production rates. It is, therefore, very important for any country to recognize such strategic aspect of nuclear energy when addressing the issue of security of power supply. Nuclear option is in a unique position to restore its original role of the main source of energy with an increased attention paid to the security of electricity supply as well as regulatory changes affecting fossil fuels, particularly with due

  6. Long term energy system analysis of Japan based on 'options for energy and environment' by the energy and environmental council

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagiwara, Naoto; Kurosawa, Atsushi

    2013-01-01

    Implications to Japanese energy system are discussed especially in terms of primary energy supply and power generation portfolio, using sensitivity analysis results by an optimization type energy model based on TIMES modeling framework. We updated energy service demand, efficiency in energy conversion and consumption, and power generation costs based on the recent energy policy document called 'Options for Energy and Environment'. The time horizon of the model is 2050. The sensitivity analysis results are presented for 'Three scenarios for 2030' including nuclear phase out scenarios with/without CO 2 emission constraint. The results are compared with 'Options for Energy and Environment'. (author)

  7. More efficient optimization of long-term water supply portfolios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, Brian R.; Characklis, Gregory W.; Dillard, Karen E. M.; Kelley, C. T.

    2009-03-01

    The use of temporary transfers, such as options and leases, has grown as utilities attempt to meet increases in demand while reducing dependence on the expansion of costly infrastructure capacity (e.g., reservoirs). Earlier work has been done to construct optimal portfolios comprising firm capacity and transfers, using decision rules that determine the timing and volume of transfers. However, such work has only focused on the short-term (e.g., 1-year scenarios), which limits the utility of these planning efforts. Developing multiyear portfolios can lead to the exploration of a wider range of alternatives but also increases the computational burden. This work utilizes a coupled hydrologic-economic model to simulate the long-term performance of a city's water supply portfolio. This stochastic model is linked with an optimization search algorithm that is designed to handle the high-frequency, low-amplitude noise inherent in many simulations, particularly those involving expected values. This noise is detrimental to the accuracy and precision of the optimized solution and has traditionally been controlled by investing greater computational effort in the simulation. However, the increased computational effort can be substantial. This work describes the integration of a variance reduction technique (control variate method) within the simulation/optimization as a means of more efficiently identifying minimum cost portfolios. Random variation in model output (i.e., noise) is moderated using knowledge of random variations in stochastic input variables (e.g., reservoir inflows, demand), thereby reducing the computing time by 50% or more. Using these efficiency gains, water supply portfolios are evaluated over a 10-year period in order to assess their ability to reduce costs and adapt to demand growth, while still meeting reliability goals. As a part of the evaluation, several multiyear option contract structures are explored and compared.

  8. 76 FR 70110 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Miscellaneous Short Supply Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-10

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Bureau of Industry and Security Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Miscellaneous Short Supply Activities AGENCY: Bureau of Industry and Security, Commerce. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Department of Commerce, as part of its continuing effort to reduce paperwork and...

  9. In Search of Decay in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Marc G.; Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.

    2009-01-01

    Is forgetting in the short term due to decay with the mere passage of time, interference from other memoranda, or both? Past research on short-term memory has revealed some evidence for decay and a plethora of evidence showing that short-term memory is worsened by interference. However, none of these studies has directly contrasted decay and…

  10. Foreign Direct Investment and Energy Supply in the Middle East and North Africa: A Correlational Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elghali, Siddig

    Middle East and North Africa countries have been criticized for failing to utilize foreign direct investment energy resources efficiently. The changing of energy resources environment of the past decades with its growing emphasis on the importance of imminent energy supply challenges require strategists to consider different types of energy resources investment to improve energy supply. One type of energy investment will show effectiveness and efficiency in utilizing foreign direct investment in exposing RE, fossil fuels, natural gas, and reducing CO2 emissions. The purpose of this quantitative correlational study was to utilize foreign direct investment to predict total primary energy supply in the Middle East and North Africa region between 1971 and 2013. The study was conducted using a sample size of 43 years of energy supply resources and foreign direct investment from 1971 to 2013, which includes all of the years for which FDI is available. RE potential may equip Middle East and North Africa countries with sustainable and clean electricity for centuries to come, as non-renewable energy resources may not meet the demands globally and domestically or environmentally. As demands for fossil fuels grow, carbon emissions will increase. RE may be a better option of CO 2 emissions sequestration and will increase electricity to rural areas without government subsidies and complex decision-making policies. RE infrastructure will reduce water desalinization costs, cooling systems, and be useful in heating. Establishing concentrated solar power may be useful for the region cooperation, negotiations, and integration to share this energy. The alternative sought to fossil fuels was nuclear power. However, nuclear power depends on depleting, non-renewable uranium resources. The cost of uranium will increase if widely used and the presence of a nuclear plant in an unstable region is unsafe. Thus, renewable energy as a long-term option is efficient. A nonlinear regression

  11. Sovereignty, Robustness, and Short-Term Energy Security Levels. The Catalonia Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosas-Casals, Martí, E-mail: rosas@mmt.upc.edu [Sustainability Measurement and Modelling Lab, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya – Barcelona Tech, Barcelona (Spain); Marzo, Mariano [Geomodels Institute, Department of Stratigraphy, Paleontology and Marine Geosciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain); Salas-Prat, Pep [Sustainability Measurement and Modelling Lab, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya – Barcelona Tech, Barcelona (Spain); SmartGrid.cat, Barcelona (Spain)

    2014-05-12

    Energy-related impacts and conflicts have been used to account for the emergence, maintenance, and collapse of complex societies. On the other hand in the last years, sustainability science has incorporated different frames of reference in order to facilitate the vision of sustainable futures. Most of them suggest that the search for satisfiers of human needs should be rooted on the local (a) construction of organic articulations of people with nature and technology and (b) generation of growing levels of social, economic, and energy self-reliance. This new regional kind of social agreement implies a redefinition of cultural norms and institutions, which at the same time leads toward increased levels of sovereignty for the social group engaged in this process. Sovereignty must not only be understood here in its political sense (as traditionally found in the literature) but also in its technological and energy acceptations. In this paper, we address this last constituent in terms of energy security levels and hierarchy in energy infrastructures between Spain and Catalonia, the latter being a Spanish autonomous community known for its sovereignty aspirations. We show a remarkable difference in energy security levels between both regions, which clearly hinders Catalonia’s capacity to currently achieve a higher level of self-reliance in energetic terms. We suggest that this result is a consequence of the imperfect hierarchy that characterizes energy infrastructures at the spatial scale, and that it can be generalized to all regions where infrastructural systems have been historically assessed and developed under a nationwide planning scheme.

  12. Sovereignty, Robustness, and Short-Term Energy Security Levels. The Catalonia Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosas-Casals, Martí; Marzo, Mariano; Salas-Prat, Pep

    2014-01-01

    Energy-related impacts and conflicts have been used to account for the emergence, maintenance, and collapse of complex societies. On the other hand in the last years, sustainability science has incorporated different frames of reference in order to facilitate the vision of sustainable futures. Most of them suggest that the search for satisfiers of human needs should be rooted on the local (a) construction of organic articulations of people with nature and technology and (b) generation of growing levels of social, economic, and energy self-reliance. This new regional kind of social agreement implies a redefinition of cultural norms and institutions, which at the same time leads toward increased levels of sovereignty for the social group engaged in this process. Sovereignty must not only be understood here in its political sense (as traditionally found in the literature) but also in its technological and energy acceptations. In this paper, we address this last constituent in terms of energy security levels and hierarchy in energy infrastructures between Spain and Catalonia, the latter being a Spanish autonomous community known for its sovereignty aspirations. We show a remarkable difference in energy security levels between both regions, which clearly hinders Catalonia’s capacity to currently achieve a higher level of self-reliance in energetic terms. We suggest that this result is a consequence of the imperfect hierarchy that characterizes energy infrastructures at the spatial scale, and that it can be generalized to all regions where infrastructural systems have been historically assessed and developed under a nationwide planning scheme.

  13. Sovereignty, robustness and short-term energy security levels. The Catalonia case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marti eRosas-Casals

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Energy related impacts and conflicts have been used to account for the emergence, maintenance and collapse of complex societies. On the other hand in the last years, sustainability science has incorporated different frames of reference in order to facilitate the vision of sustainable futures. Most of them suggest that the search for satisfiers of human needs should be rooted on the local (a construction of organic articulations of people with nature and technology and (b generation of growing levels of social, economic and energy self-reliance. This new regional kind of social agreement implies a redefinition of cultural norms and institutions, which at the same time leads toward increased levels of sovereignty for the social group engaged in this process. Sovereignty must not only be understood here in its political sense (as traditionally found in the literature but also in its technological and energy acceptations. In this paper we address this last constituent in terms of energy security levels and hierarchy in energy infrastructures between Spain and Catalonia, the latter being a Spanish autonomous community known for its sovereignty aspirations. We show a remarkable difference in energy security levels between both regions which clearly hinders Catalonia’s capacity to currently achieve a higher level of self-reliance in energetic terms. We suggest that this result is a consequence of the imperfect hierarchy that characterize energy infrastructures at the spatial scale, and that it can be generalized to all regions where infrastructural systems have been historically assessed and developed under a nationwide planning scheme.

  14. Short-term variability of Cyg X-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oda, M.; Doi, K.; Ogawara, Y.

    1976-01-01

    The short-term X-ray variability distinguishes Cyg X-1, which is the most likely candidate for a black hole, from other X-ray sources. The present status of our knowledge on this short-term variation, mainly from the UHURU, the MIT and the GSFC observations, is reviewed. The nature of impulsive variations which compose the time variation exceeding the statistical fluctuation is discussed. There are indications that the energy spectrum of large pulses is harder than the average spectrum, or that the large pulses are the characteristics of the hard component of the spectrum if it is composed of two, soft and hard, components. Features of the variations may be partly simulated by the superposition of random shot-noise pulses with a fraction of a second duration. However, the autocorrelation analysis and the dynamic spectrum analysis indicate that the correlation lasts for several seconds and in the variation are buried some regularities which exhibit power concentrations in several frequency bands; 0.2-0.3, 0.4-0.5, 0.8, 1.2-1.5 Hz. There are several possible interpretations of these results in terms of; e.g. (a) a mixture of shot-noise pulses with two or more constant durations, (b) the shape of the basic shot-noise pulse, (c) bunching of the pulses, (d) superposition of wave-packets or temporal oscillations. But we have not yet reached any definite understandings in the nature of the variabilities. The substructure of the fluctuations on a time scale of milliseconds suggested by two investigations is also discussed. (Auth.)

  15. Attention Problems, Phonological Short-Term Memory, and Visuospatial Short-Term Memory: Differential Effects on Near- and Long-Term Scholastic Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarver, Dustin E.; Rapport, Mark D.; Kofler, Michael J.; Scanlan, Sean W.; Raiker, Joseph S.; Altro, Thomas A.; Bolden, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    The current study examined individual differences in children's phonological and visuospatial short-term memory as potential mediators of the relationship among attention problems and near- and long-term scholastic achievement. Nested structural equation models revealed that teacher-reported attention problems were associated negatively with…

  16. Energy contracting. Energy-related services and decentral energy supply. 2. ed.; Energie-Contracting. Energiedienstleistungen und dezentrale Energieversorgung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hack, Martin

    2012-11-01

    According to the author, the intended German energy turnaround cannot be achieved solely on the basis of power from renewables and by constructing new passive buildings. Also required are decentral energy services if the energy saving and efficiency goals are to be achieved. In spite of many variations, the basic structure of these is the following: A contractor providing energy services does not only supply energy but also carries the risk and responsibility for efficient supply. This will relieve energy users, whether industrial or trade enterprises, public administration or home owners from this task; also, this integrated approach will open up undeveloped efficiency potentials. The book discusses current legal issues in a clear and practice-oriented manner and also provides a check list for energy contracting and an exemplary contract. (orig./RHM)

  17. World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lantzke, U.

    1977-01-01

    The OECD's world energy outlook analyses projected trends in energy damnd and supply for the OECD area and other major global regions to 1985. It provides a brief discussion of trends after 1985. OECD energy consumption is projected to grow more slowly than in the past. Conservation effects will increase efficiency of energy use per unit of economic growth. All domestic energy supplies in the OECD are projected to expand faster than in the past. The relative share of non-fossil energy sources in total production will be almost doubled. Assuming moderate economic growth, existing energy policies and a constnat real price for oil, the outlook's reference case projects OECD oil import at 35 million barrels a day by 1985. This level of import demand, when combined with the import needs of other oil importing areas, could approach the limit of availability of world oil supplies and as a result cause severe disequilibrium in world energy markets. The outlook indicates such severe disruption can be avoided by action to improve the world energy supply and demand balance without impeding economic growth objectives. Strong measures will be required both to conserve energy and to develop new energy supplies. The biggest increment to the OECD's energy supply by 1985 is expected to come from nuclear power. This substantial nuclear contribution will be inevitable and irreplaceable. As a result urgent solutions to problems concerning safety, availability of fuel cycle services, the environment, cost escalation and construction delays will be required

  18. Roles and prospect of nuclear power in China's energy supply strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Dazhong; Lu Yingyun

    2002-01-01

    China's annual energy demand is expected to amount to 3360 million tons of oil equivalent (toe) in 2050, the target year for the nation's economic development to reach the level of medium-developed countries in the middle of this century. The future energy supply, doubtless to go through a substantial increase and necessary mix shift with potential significant environmental impacts, will continue to rely on the domestic sources with coal-dominance but diversified mixes, in which nuclear power makes up a reasonable share. The large-scale development of nuclear energy is essential and promising, with the total installed capacity expectedly over 200-300 GW around 2050, and will be an effective response measure to mitigate the energy-derived environmental pollution and guarantee the national energy security. China is a developing country with the largest population in the world. The energy production had achieved remarkable progress over the last half century, particularly since the initiatives of reform and opening to the outside world in the late 1970s, and energy demand to fuel the continued socio-economic growth has been largely met. The current energy consumption of China is 896 Mtoe (China Stat. Abs. (2001) 130), accounting for about 11% of the world's total, the second largest energy consumer in the globe. However, the energy supply will face even tougher challenges in terms of demand increase, mix shift and potential environmental impacts to be posed by a sustained fast-growing economy in light of China's blueprint for future development. With the switch-over from the centrally planned economy to the socialist market economy and the gradual integration of China's energy trade into the international markets, the imported crude oil in 2000 amounted to 70.265 Mt (Int. Petrol. Econ. 9 (2000) 5), about 3.5% of the global petroleum trade, the long-term energy security for China would have great regional and global implications. It is, therefore, of great significance

  19. Short Term Airing by Natural Ventilation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heiselberg, Per; Perino, M.

    2010-01-01

    The need to improve the energy efficiency of buildings requires new and more efficient ventilation systems. It has been demonstrated that innovative operating concepts that make use of natural ventilation seem to be more appreciated by occupants. Among the available ventilation strategies...... that are currently available, buoyancy driven, single-sided natural ventilation has proved to be very effective and can provide high air change rates for temperature and Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) control. However, to promote a wider distribution of these systems an improvement in the knowledge of their working...... airflow rate, ventilation efficiency, thermal comfort and dynamic temperature conditions. A suitable laboratory test rig was developed to perform extensive experimental analyses of the phenomenon under controlled and repeatable conditions. The results showed that short-term window airing is very effective...

  20. Energy supply waste water treatment plant West Brabant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poldervaart, A; Schouten, G J

    1983-09-01

    For the energy supply for the waste water treatment plant (rwzi-Bath) of the Hoogheemraadschap West-Brabant three energy sources are used: biogas of the digesters, natural gas and electricity delivered by the PZEM. For a good balance between heat/power demand and production a heat/power plant is installed. By using this system a high efficiency for the use of energy will be obtained. To save energy the oxygen concentration in the aerationtanks is automatically controlled by means of regulating the position of the air supply control valves and the capacity and number of the turbocompressors. For the oxygen controlsystem a Siemens PLC is used.

  1. Economically efficient energy generation and energy utilization: Potentials as well as effects in terms of energy, ecology, economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masuhr, K.P.

    1987-01-01

    As the electric power industry is closely interlaced with the overall power supply system of the country, and especially with the heat market, a study into the impacts of an abandonment of nuclear power is necessary in order to be able to assess the situation in the energy sector at large. The report in hand summarizes the methodology adopted and the frame conditions taken as a basis. The contrast scenario without nuclear energy is explained and interpreted in terms of its effects on the energy market, the economy and the environment. (DG) [de

  2. What is the place of the energy supply security and energy independence in the energy policy?; Quelle est la place des preoccupations de securite d'approvisionnement et d'independance energetique dans la politique de l'energie?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-12-15

    Since the petroleum crisis and the electric power cuts of the 1999 storm, the energy security interest is growing. The author recall the structural risks of the energy systems and the vulnerability of the occidental economies to the supply disruptions. They propose then a long term cooperation between producer and consumer countries, a development of operational tools to face the crisis and a supply security inside the europe. (A.L.B.)

  3. Energy, economy, and environment analysis and optimization on manufacturing plant energy supply system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, Lujia; Mears, Laine; Beaufort, Cleveland; Schulte, Joerg

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Single objective and multicriteria optimization approaches are proposed. • Objectives of energy, economy, and environment are proved conflicting. • 3-input-5-output energy supply system of an automotive plant is studied. - Abstract: Increasing attention has recently been drawn to energy consumption in manufacturing plants. Facing the challenges from reducing emissions coupled with rising raw material prices and energy costs, manufacturers are trying to balance the energy usage strategy among the total energy consumption, economy, and environment, which can be self-conflicting at times. In this paper, energy systems in manufacturing environments are reviewed, and the current status of onsite energy system and renewable energy usage are discussed. Single objective and multicriteria optimization approaches are effectively formulated for making the best use of energy delivered to the production processes. Energy supply operation suggestions based on the optimization results are obtained. Finally, an example from an automotive assembly manufacturer is described to demonstrate the energy usage in the current manufacturing plants and how the optimization approaches can be applied to satisfy the energy management objectives. According to the optimization results, in an energy oriented operation, it takes 35% more in monetary cost; while in an economy oriented operation, it takes 17% more in megawatt hour energy supply and tends to rely more on the inexpensive renewable energy.

  4. Short-Term Reciprocity in Late Parent-Child Relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leopold, Thomas; Raab, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    Long-term concepts of parent-child reciprocity assume that the amount of support given and received is only balanced in a generalized fashion over the life course. We argue that reciprocity in parent-child relationships also operates in the short term. Our analysis of short-term reciprocity focuses on concurrent exchange in its main upward and…

  5. Technology diffusion in energy-economy models: The case of Danish vintage models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological vintage models to describe technology diffusion. The focus is on short- to medium-term issues. Three different models of Danish energy supply and demand are used to illustrate...

  6. Implementing a short-term loyalty program : case: Bosch Lawn & Garden and the Ventum short-term loyalty program

    OpenAIRE

    Logvinova, Veronika

    2015-01-01

    In 2015, one of the Bosch Home and Garden divisions, Bosch Lawn and Garden, has made a strategic decision to adopt a points-based short-term loyalty program called Ventum LG in the German supermarkets and petrol stations. It was decided that the base of this program will be completed Ventum PT short-term loyalty program which was managed by another division, Bosch Power Tools, and proved to be successful. This thesis aims to evaluate the worthiness of the Ventum LG loyalty program for Bosch L...

  7. Non-OPEC oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammad, Y.H.

    1990-01-01

    The concentration of world oil reserves in members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has resulted in directing most of the attention toward them. Analysts in energy and petroleum place particular emphasis on developments within these countries. This emphasis is well placed and justified if the scope of the study is long term. However, it would be imprudent to minimize the role of non-OPEC producers in the world petroleum market if the scope of the study is short or medium term. The profiles of production in these countries assume particular importance in assessing market equilibrium and the resulting price pattern. Moreover, development since the early 1980s proved the resilience of production in non-OPEC nations and their ability to maintain production despite a substantial price decline. In fact, some of the countries were able to expand their output despite the decline in prices. In order to analyze this phenomenon, the present paper attempts to utilize available data to estimate an aggregate supply function for the non-OPEC producers as well as a separate supply function for the U.K. North Sea region. The objective is to assess the shape of the supply function and to get reliable estimates of the supply elasticity. The next section outlines the profiles of reserves and production in both OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Thereafter, the data and the estimation method are discussed. The subsequent fourth section presents the results of the estimation, followed by a summary and conclusions. 2 figs., 4 tabs

  8. Energy supply security and foreign policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-05-01

    The title memo has been sent to the Dutch Lower House. This memo reflects the response of the cabinet to the advice on Energetic Foreign Policy of the Dutch Advisory Council on International Affairs (AIV) and the Dutch Energy Council (AER). Moreover, the development of foreign policy with respect to energy supply security is depicted. [mk] [nl

  9. Decay uncovered in nonverbal short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Tom; McKeown, Denis

    2014-02-01

    Decay theory posits that memory traces gradually fade away over the passage of time unless they are actively rehearsed. Much recent work exploring verbal short-term memory has challenged this theory, but there does appear to be evidence for trace decay in nonverbal auditory short-term memory. Numerous discrimination studies have reported a performance decline as the interval separating two tones is increased, consistent with a decay process. However, most of this tone comparison research can be explained in other ways, without reference to decay, and these alternative accounts were tested in the present study. In Experiment 1, signals were employed toward the end of extended retention intervals to ensure that listeners were alert to the presence and frequency content of the memoranda. In Experiment 2, a mask stimulus was employed in an attempt to distinguish between a highly detailed sensory trace and a longer-lasting short-term memory, and the distinctiveness of the stimuli was varied. Despite these precautions, slow-acting trace decay was observed. It therefore appears that the mere passage of time can lead to forgetting in some forms of short-term memory.

  10. Energy efficiency in a water supply system: Energy consumption and CO2 emission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helena M. Ramos

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents important fundamentals associated with water and energy efficiency and highlights the importance of using renewable energy sources. A model of multi-criteria optimization for energy efficiency based on water and environmental management policies, including the preservation of water resources and the control of water pressure and energy consumption through a hybrid energy solution, was developed and applied to a water supply system. The methodology developed includes three solutions: (1 the use of a water turbine in pipe systems where pressures are higher than necessary and pressure-reducing valves are installed, (2 the optimization of pumping operation according to the electricity tariff and water demand, and (3 the use of other renewable energy sources, including a wind turbine, to supply energy to the pumping station, with the remaining energy being sold to the national electric grid. The use of an integrated solution (water and energy proves to be a valuable input for creating benefits from available hydro energy in the water supply system in order to produce clean power, and the use of a wind source allows for the reduction of energy consumption in pumping stations, as well as of the CO2 emission to the atmosphere.

  11. Energy pricing under uncertain supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serra, P.J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper introduces a new pricing system - based on the Chilean tariff regulations - to deal with an uncertain energy supply. It consists of a basic rate for each unit actually consumed and a compensation that the utilities pay their customers for each unit of energy that they voluntarily reduce below their normal consumption during an energy shortage. Within the framework of a model that portrays the stylized facts of the Chilean electric system, and assumes risk-neutral agents, this paper shows the equivalency of the new pricing system with both contingent pricing and priority pricing. (Author)

  12. Small-scale hybrid plant integrated with municipal energy supply system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakken, B.H.; Fossum, M.; Belsnes, M.M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes a research program started in 2001 to optimize environmental impact and cost of a small-scale hybrid plant based on candidate resources, transportation technologies and conversion efficiency, including integration with existing energy distribution systems. Special attention is given to a novel hybrid energy concept fuelled by municipal solid waste. The commercial interest for the model is expected to be more pronounced in remote communities and villages, including communities subject to growing prosperity. To enable optimization of complex energy distribution systems with multiple energy sources and carriers a flexible and robust methodology must be developed. This will enable energy companies and consultants to carry out comprehensive feasibility studies prior to investment, including technological, economic and environmental aspects. Governmental and municipal bodies will be able to pursue scenario studies involving energy systems and their impact on the environment, and measure the consequences of possible regulation regimes on environmental questions. This paper describes the hybrid concept for conversion of municipal solid waste in terms of energy supply, as well as the methodology for optimizing such integrated energy systems. (author)

  13. Supply reliability and dynamic safety analysis of an alternative energy supply chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herbert-Hansen, Zaza Nadja Lee; Markert, Frank; Jacobsen, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on the integration of risk and supply chain modelling by means of analysing a case concerning a Hydrogen Refuelling Station in Berlin. It presents a framework that can analyse an energy supply chain and at the same time enables easy reporting and presentation of various results...... by utilizing Dis-crete Event Simulation (DES). The industrial implication of this work is to provide practitioners with an anal-ysis framework for improved decision support. The novelty of this paper is the approach to model a supply chain together with a dynamically modelled event tree-based approach...

  14. Are Credit Shocks Supply or Demand Shocks?

    OpenAIRE

    Bijapur, Mohan

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides new insights into the relationship between the supply of credit and the macroeconomy. We present evidence that credit shocks constitute shocks to aggregate supply in that they have a permanent effect on output and cause inflation to rise in the short term. Our results also suggest that the effects on aggregate supply have grown stronger in recent decades.

  15. Hybrid energy system evaluation in water supply system energy production: neural network approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goncalves, Fabio V.; Ramos, Helena M. [Civil Engineering Department, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001, Lisbon (Portugal); Reis, Luisa Fernanda R. [Universidade de Sao Paulo, EESC/USP, Departamento de Hidraulica e Saneamento., Avenida do Trabalhador Saocarlense, 400, Sao Carlos-SP (Brazil)

    2010-07-01

    Water supply systems are large consumers of energy and the use of hybrid systems for green energy production is this new proposal. This work presents a computational model based on neural networks to determine the best configuration of a hybrid system to generate energy in water supply systems. In this study the energy sources to make this hybrid system can be the national power grid, micro-hydro and wind turbines. The artificial neural network is composed of six layers, trained to use data generated by a model of hybrid configuration and an economic simulator - CES. The reason for the development of an advanced model of forecasting based on neural networks is to allow rapid simulation and proper interaction with hydraulic and power model simulator - HPS. The results show that this computational model is useful as advanced decision support system in the design of configurations of hybrid power systems applied to water supply systems, improving the solutions in the development of its global energy efficiency.

  16. Perspectives of energy supply. Possibilities for restructuring the energy supply of Baden-Wuerttemberg with special regard to power supply. Materials volume 6. Nuclear power. Pt. 2. Perspektiven der Energieversorgung. Moeglichkeiten der Umstrukturierung der Energieversorgung Baden-Wuerttembergs unter besonderer Beruecksichtigung der Stromversorgung. Materialienband 6. Kernenergie. T. 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voss, A; Schatz, A; Herold, H

    1987-01-01

    The accident of Chernobyl certainly is a good reason to make once more a critical and very thorough review of the part nuclear energy will play in future in the supply of energy. The government of the Land Baden-Wuerttemberg commissioned an expert opinion in the summer of 1986 with the following intentions: To make a comprehensive analysis of ways technically feasible to safeguard the energy supply of Baden-Wuerttemberg in the long term, evaluate these as to their ecological, economic, and social repercussions, and to investigate in particular whether, to what extent and by what steps nuclear energy use can be made superfluous and what consequences this will entail. Building on the current state of knowledge, the expert opinion is to provide the basic data for weighing the benefits and risks of different technically feasible forms that the energy supply of Baden-Wuerttemberg may take in future. This publication presents the results of more than a year's intensive research work. This volume contains the complete scientific data of the sub-project 'Nuclear Power'. The summarizing final report indicates the position of this sub-project within the overall problem.

  17. International Conference SES 2009: Secure Energy Supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The Conference included the following sessions: Opening addresses; (I) Energy policy; (II) Environment, Renewable sources and NPPs; (III) Secure energy supply - New nuclear units. Verbal 21 presentations have been inputted into INIS, all in the form of the full authors' presentations.

  18. The role of PV electricity generation in fully renewable energy supply systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehmann, H.; Peter, S.

    2004-01-01

    A sustainable energy supply will be based on renewable energies and it must use available resources efficiently. Earlier or later the energy supply will rely completely on renewable sources. A solar energy system that provides a reliable energy supply throughout the year includes the consistent use of local renewable energy sources (e.g. PV) wherever possible. Using Japan as a example it was shown that the vision of a full renewable energy supply, even with high shares of domestic sources is possible. Detailed simulations of such a system show that the PV systems play an important role delivering electricity at peak demand times. (authors)

  19. Security of energy supply. Facts and possibilities for action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hake, Juergen-Friedrich; Rath-Nagel, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    The energy infrastructure of a country has a decisive influence on the standard of living there, the competitiveness of its economy and its inner political stability. In the debate about the energy transition in Germany attention is primarily being focused on the future energy mix and how it might change, but in particular on the technical challenges involved as well as the costs of the transition as a whole. Given the growing instability that will arise in the electricity networks in the process of transition, as well as the problems that could occur with the supply of natural gas as a result of the Ukraine crisis, the issue of security of energy supply in Germany (as well as Europe) needs to be addressed anew: Is the energy supply at risk? What sources are available at home and abroad, and what leeway is there for changing the procurement mix?

  20. Parent-Offspring Conflict over Short-Term Mating Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spyroulla Georgiou

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Individuals engage in short-term mating strategies that enable them to obtain fitness benefits from casual relationships. These benefits, however, count for less and cost more to their parents. On this basis three hypotheses are tested. First, parents and offspring are likely to disagree over short-term mating strategies, with the former considering these as less acceptable than the latter. Second, parents are more likely to disapprove of the short-term mating strategies of their daughters than of their sons. Finally, mothers and fathers are expected to agree on how much they disagree over the short-term mating strategies of their children. Evidence from a sample of 148 Greek-Cypriot families (140 mothers, 105 fathers, 119 daughters, 77 sons provides support for the first two hypotheses and partial support for the third hypothesis. The implications of these findings for understanding family dynamics are further discussed.

  1. Three solar urban futures: characterization of a future community under three energy-supply scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milne, M; Adelson, M; Corwin, R

    1979-10-01

    This study examines a hypothetical city of 100,000 people in the year 2025 based on three initially given energy-supply scenarios: Future 1 specifying approximately 6% of the city's demand being met by solar technologies; Future 2 specifying about 25%; and Future 3 seeking maximum use of solar technologies. These three versions of the hypothetical city are to be identical in terms of population, goods and services produced, and energy demand. Their differences are compared in terms of physical layout, environmental quality, socio-economics, and quality of life. It is concluded that in Future 1 and Future 2, the city's residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can easily meet the on-site energy-collection requirements of the given supply scenarios. In Future 3, the Solar City, the residential sector can be totally energy self-sufficient (collecting all needed energy on-site), and the commercial sector can collect 59.7% of its energy requirement. Passive design of buildings plays a large part in these results. The industrial sector can collect on-site only 18.2% of its energy needs. In what is called Future 3A, all three sectors of the hypothetical city can be 100% energy self-sufficient if the land area available for various types of solar collectors is increased 34.5%; the commercial sector needs 650 additional acres, while the industrial sector needs 2800 acres, provided that moderate temperature energy (250/sup 0/F to 600/sup 0/F) is adequate to meet industrial process needs.

  2. Multi-Criteria Analysis of Alternative Energy Supply Solutions to Public Nearly Zero Energy Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giedrius Šiupšinskas

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes energy supply alternatives for modernised public nearly zero energy buildings. The paper examines alternative energy production systems such as heat pumps (air-water and ground-water, solar collectors, adsorption cooling, biomass boiler, solar photovoltaic, wind turbines and combinations of these systems. The simulation of the analysed building energy demand for different energy production alternatives has been performed using TRNSYS modelling software. In order to determine an optimal energy supply variant, the estimated results of energy, environmental, and economic evaluation have been converted into non-dimensional variables (3E using multi-criteria analysis.Article in Lithuanian

  3. Improving Energy Security for Air Force Installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schill, David

    Like civilian infrastructure, Air Force installations are dependent on electrical energy for daily operations. Energy shortages translate to decreased productivity, higher costs, and increased health risks. But for the United States military, energy shortages have the potential to become national security risks. Over ninety-five percent of the electrical energy used by the Air Force is supplied by the domestic grid, which is susceptible to shortages and disruptions. Many Air Force operations require a continuous source of energy, and while the Air Force has historically established redundant supplies of electrical energy, these back-ups are designed for short-term outages and may not provide sufficient supply for a longer, sustained power outage. Furthermore, it is the goal of the Department of Defense to produce or procure 25 percent of its facility energy from renewable sources by fiscal year 2025. In a government budget environment where decision makers are required to provide more capability with less money, it is becoming increasingly important for informed decisions regarding which energy supply options bear the most benefit for an installation. The analysis begins by exploring the field of energy supply options available to an Air Force installation. The supply options are assessed according to their ability to provide continuous and reliable energy, their applicability to unique requirements of Air Force installations, and their costs. Various methods of calculating energy usage by an installation are also addressed. The next step of this research develops a methodology and tool which assesses how an installation responds to various power outage scenarios. Lastly, various energy supply options are applied to the tool, and the results are reported in terms of cost and loss of installation capability. This approach will allow installation commanders and energy managers the ability to evaluate the cost and effectiveness of various energy investment options.

  4. Circadian modulation of short-term memory in Drosophila.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Lisa C; Roman, Gregg

    2009-01-01

    Endogenous biological clocks are widespread regulators of behavior and physiology, allowing for a more efficient allocation of efforts and resources over the course of a day. The extent that different processes are regulated by circadian oscillators, however, is not fully understood. We investigated the role of the circadian clock on short-term associative memory formation using a negatively reinforced olfactory-learning paradigm in Drosophila melanogaster. We found that memory formation was regulated in a circadian manner. The peak performance in short-term memory (STM) occurred during the early subjective night with a twofold performance amplitude after a single pairing of conditioned and unconditioned stimuli. This rhythm in memory is eliminated in both timeless and period mutants and is absent during constant light conditions. Circadian gating of sensory perception does not appear to underlie the rhythm in short-term memory as evidenced by the nonrhythmic shock avoidance and olfactory avoidance behaviors. Moreover, central brain oscillators appear to be responsible for the modulation as cryptochrome mutants, in which the antennal circadian oscillators are nonfunctional, demonstrate robust circadian rhythms in short-term memory. Together these data suggest that central, rather than peripheral, circadian oscillators modulate the formation of short-term associative memory and not the perception of the stimuli.

  5. Long-term trends in U.S. gas supply and prices: 1991 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, April 1991. Gas research insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1991-04-01

    The report summarizes the gas supply and price outlook in the 1991 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand. Projected U.S. gas production, gas imports, and other sources of gas supply are discussed along with the sensitivity of the outlook to changes in price expectations. The critical uncertainties and issues affecting the gas supply and price outlook are discussed. Appendixes include a comparison of the 1991 and the 1989 projections of gas supply and price trends; and a description of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model

  6. Energy supply and demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, E. D.

    1978-01-01

    The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.

  7. Exploring the undulating plateau: the future of global oil supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Peter M; Smith, Leta K

    2014-01-13

    In this paper, we analyse the factors that will influence long-term oil supply and describe the future form of the global oil supply profile as an 'undulating plateau' rather than an irreversible, short-term peak or an ever upward trend of increasing production. The ultimate transition from a world of relatively plentiful and cheap oil to one of tight supply and high cost will be slow and challenging. An understanding of the signposts for the future path of supply and the drivers of that profile will be critical to managing the transition. The ultimate form of the global supply curve may well be dictated by demand evolution rather than a limited resource endowment in the longer term. Several factors will probably control future global oil supply. We believe that the scale of global oil resource will not constitute a physical supply limit for at least the next two or three decades. However, all categories of oil resources are already more expensive to develop than in the past, requiring high oil prices to stimulate supply growth. Lower rates of oil demand growth relative to economic growth, combined with more challenging supply growth, will probably lead to an undulating plateau sometime after 2040, with demand from non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development states continuing to dominate. Upstream investment requirements and oil price volatility will increase towards and beyond the undulating production plateau. In this new world, high oil prices will induce demand destruction, fuel substitution and ever increasing energy efficiency. As we discuss below, the fundamental differences between the IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' (IHS CERA) view of the future of oil supply and many peak oil supply models are the timing of the onset of a dramatic slowdown in the rate of growth of supply and the existence or otherwise of a production plateau. We do not dispute that supply will plateau and eventually fall; the question is when, how and at what price

  8. Simulation of short-term annealing of displacement cascades in FCC metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinisch, H.L.; Doran, D.G.; Schwartz, D.M.

    1980-01-01

    Computer models have been developed for the simulation of high energy displacement cascades. The objective is the generation of defect production functions for use in correlation analysis of radiation effects in fusion reactor materials. In particular, the stochastic cascade annealing simulation code SCAS has been developed and used to model the short-term annealing behavior of simulated cascades in FCC metals. The code is fast enough to make annealing of high energy cascades practical. Sets of cascades from 5 keV to 100 keV in copper were generated by the binary collision code MARLOWE

  9. The Role of Short-term Consolidation in Memory Persistence

    OpenAIRE

    Timothy J. Ricker

    2015-01-01

    Short-term memory, often described as working memory, is one of the most fundamental information processing systems of the human brain. Short-term memory function is necessary for language, spatial navigation, problem solving, and many other daily activities. Given its importance to cognitive function, understanding the architecture of short-term memory is of crucial importance to understanding human behavior. Recent work from several laboratories investigating the entry of information into s...

  10. The interaction of short-term and long-term memory in phonetic category formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harnsberger, James D.

    2002-05-01

    This study examined the role that short-term memory capacity plays in the relationship between novel stimuli (e.g., non-native speech sounds, native nonsense words) and phonetic categories in long-term memory. Thirty native speakers of American English were administered five tests: categorial AXB discrimination using nasal consonants from Malayalam; categorial identification, also using Malayalam nasals, which measured the influence of phonetic categories in long-term memory; digit span; nonword span, a short-term memory measure mediated by phonetic categories in long-term memory; and paired-associate word learning (word-word and word-nonword pairs). The results showed that almost all measures were significantly correlated with one another. The strongest predictor for the discrimination and word-nonword learning results was nonword (r=+0.62) and digit span (r=+0.51), respectively. When the identification test results were partialed out, only nonword span significantly correlated with discrimination. The results show a strong influence of short-term memory capacity on the encoding of phonetic detail within phonetic categories and suggest that long-term memory representations regulate the capacity of short-term memory to preserve information for subsequent encoding. The results of this study will also be discussed with regards to resolving the tension between episodic and abstract models of phonetic category structure.

  11. Semantic and phonological contributions to short-term repetition and long-term cued sentence recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meltzer, Jed A; Rose, Nathan S; Deschamps, Tiffany; Leigh, Rosie C; Panamsky, Lilia; Silberberg, Alexandra; Madani, Noushin; Links, Kira A

    2016-02-01

    The function of verbal short-term memory is supported not only by the phonological loop, but also by semantic resources that may operate on both short and long time scales. Elucidation of the neural underpinnings of these mechanisms requires effective behavioral manipulations that can selectively engage them. We developed a novel cued sentence recall paradigm to assess the effects of two factors on sentence recall accuracy at short-term and long-term stages. Participants initially repeated auditory sentences immediately following a 14-s retention period. After this task was complete, long-term memory for each sentence was probed by a two-word recall cue. The sentences were either concrete (high imageability) or abstract (low imageability), and the initial 14-s retention period was filled with either an undemanding finger-tapping task or a more engaging articulatory suppression task (Exp. 1, counting backward by threes; Exp. 2, repeating a four-syllable nonword). Recall was always better for the concrete sentences. Articulatory suppression reduced accuracy in short-term recall, especially for abstract sentences, but the sentences initially recalled following articulatory suppression were retained better at the subsequent cued-recall test, suggesting that the engagement of semantic mechanisms for short-term retention promoted encoding of the sentence meaning into long-term memory. These results provide a basis for using sentence imageability and subsequent memory performance as probes of semantic engagement in short-term memory for sentences.

  12. Energy concepts for self-supplying communities based on local and renewable energy sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jens-Phillip

    2016-01-01

    The reduction of GHG emissions in buildings is a focus area of national energy policies, because buildings are responsible for a major share of energy consumption. Policies to increase the share of renewable energies and energy efficiency measures are implemented at local scale. Municipalities...... that virtually allow a heating energy and electricity supply fully based on local, renewable energy resources. The most feasible and cost-efficient variant is the use of local food production waste in a CHP plant feeding a district heating grid. The overall aim is to show that a self-sufficient heat......- and electricity supply of typical urban communities is possible and can be implemented in a cost-efficient way, if the energy planning is done systematically and in coherence with urban planning....

  13. An assessment of climate change impacts on micro-hydropower energy recovery in water supply networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Jennifer; Patil, Sopan; McNabola, Aonghus; Gallagher, John; Coughlan, Paul; Harris, Ian; Packwood, Andrew; Williams, Prysor

    2015-04-01

    Continuity of service of a high quality water supply is vital in sustaining economic and social development. However, water supply and wastewater treatment are highly energy intensive processes and the overall cost of water provision is rising rapidly due to increased energy costs, higher capital investment requirements, and more stringent regulatory compliance in terms of both national and EU legislation. Under the EU Directive 2009/28/EC, both Ireland and the UK are required to have 16% and 15% respectively of their electricity generated by renewable sources by 2020. The projected impacts of climate change, population growth and urbanisation will place additional pressures on resources, further increasing future water demand which in turn will lead to higher energy consumption. Therefore, there is a need to achieve greater efficiencies across the water industry. The implementation of micro-hydropower turbines within the water supply network has shown considerable viability for energy recovery. This is achieved by harnessing energy at points of high flow or pressure along the network which can then be utilised on site or alternatively sold to the national grid. Micro-hydropower can provide greater energy security for utilities together with a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. However, potential climate change impacts on water resources in the medium-to-long term currently act as a key barrier to industry confidence as changes in flow and pressure within the network can significantly alter the available energy for recovery. The present study aims to address these uncertainties and quantify the regional and local impacts of climate change on the viability of energy recovery across water infrastructure in Ireland and the UK. Specifically, the research focuses on assessing the potential future effects of climate change on flow rates at multiple pressure reducing valve sites along the water supply network and also in terms of flow at a number of wastewater

  14. ENERGY-EFFICIENT REGIMES FOR HEATING-SUPPLY OF THE RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Osipov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Rise in comfort and inhabitation safety is one of the main requirements of the general maintenance, reconstruction of the old and construction of the new residential houses. One of the essential factors of it is substitution in the household hot-water preparing sources: from the individual domestic gas  water-heaters to  the common  entire-building hot-water supply at the expense of the centralized heat supply. Extremely erratic hot-water daily consumption by tenants leads to the necessity of sharp increase in central heat-supply level during a few hours of the day, which requires a significant increase of the source heat-power. On that score, the authors propose to direct a significant part (up to 50 % of the centralized heating and ventilation heat power-consumption to the hot water preparation during the period of short-term hot water consumption peak.Substitution  of  the  individual  domestic  gas  water-heaters  with  the  common  entirebuilding hot-water supply releases a huge amount of natural gas which can be utilized not only for production of the necessary heat power but as well for electric power producing. This substitution is especially advantageous if heat-power is delivered to the residential area from a НРС where significant part of heat especially in a relatively warm season of the year is thrown out into the air. The content of the article is based on several patents received earlier.

  15. Short-term and long-term sick-leave in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blank, N; Diderichsen, Finn

    1995-01-01

    The primary aim of the study was to analyse similarities and differences between repeated spells of short-term sick-leave (more than 3 spells of less than 7 days' duration in a 12-month period) and long-term absence through sickness (at least 1 spell of more than 59 days' duration in a 12-month p...

  16. The energy and emissions footprint of water supply for Southern California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, A J; Newell, Joshua P; Cousins, Joshua J

    2015-01-01

    Due to climate change and ongoing drought, California and much of the American West face critical water supply challenges. California’s water supply infrastructure sprawls for thousands of miles, from the Colorado River to the Sacramento Delta. Bringing water to growing urban centers in Southern California is especially energy intensive, pushing local utilities to balance water security with factors such as the cost and carbon footprint of the various supply sources. To enhance water security, cities are expanding efforts to increase local water supply. But do these local sources have a smaller carbon footprint than imported sources? To answer this question and others related to the urban water–energy nexus, this study uses spatially explicit life cycle assessment to estimate the energy and emissions intensity of water supply for two utilities in Southern California: Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, which serves Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire Utility Agency, which serves the San Bernardino region. This study differs from previous research in two significant ways: (1) emissions factors are based not on regional averages but on the specific electric utility and generation sources supplying energy throughout transport, treatment, and distribution phases of the water supply chain; (2) upstream (non-combustion) emissions associated with the energy sources are included. This approach reveals that in case of water supply to Los Angeles, local recycled water has a higher carbon footprint than water imported from the Colorado River. In addition, by excluding upstream emissions, the carbon footprint of water supply is potentially underestimated by up to 30%. These results have wide-ranging implications for how carbon footprints are traditionally calculated at local and regional levels. Reducing the emissions intensity of local water supply hinges on transitioning the energy used to treat and distribute water away from fossil fuel, sources such as coal

  17. The energy and emissions footprint of water supply for Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, A. J.; Newell, Joshua P.; Cousins, Joshua J.

    2015-11-01

    Due to climate change and ongoing drought, California and much of the American West face critical water supply challenges. California’s water supply infrastructure sprawls for thousands of miles, from the Colorado River to the Sacramento Delta. Bringing water to growing urban centers in Southern California is especially energy intensive, pushing local utilities to balance water security with factors such as the cost and carbon footprint of the various supply sources. To enhance water security, cities are expanding efforts to increase local water supply. But do these local sources have a smaller carbon footprint than imported sources? To answer this question and others related to the urban water-energy nexus, this study uses spatially explicit life cycle assessment to estimate the energy and emissions intensity of water supply for two utilities in Southern California: Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, which serves Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire Utility Agency, which serves the San Bernardino region. This study differs from previous research in two significant ways: (1) emissions factors are based not on regional averages but on the specific electric utility and generation sources supplying energy throughout transport, treatment, and distribution phases of the water supply chain; (2) upstream (non-combustion) emissions associated with the energy sources are included. This approach reveals that in case of water supply to Los Angeles, local recycled water has a higher carbon footprint than water imported from the Colorado River. In addition, by excluding upstream emissions, the carbon footprint of water supply is potentially underestimated by up to 30%. These results have wide-ranging implications for how carbon footprints are traditionally calculated at local and regional levels. Reducing the emissions intensity of local water supply hinges on transitioning the energy used to treat and distribute water away from fossil fuel, sources such as coal.

  18. Projection of primary energy in electricity generation with evaluation of demand and supply of energy in the medium-term horizon (2020), long-term (2035) and very long term (2060)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mafra, Olga Y.; Alvim, Carlos Feu; Eidelman, Frida; Guimaraes, Leonam dos Santos

    2013-01-01

    The Global Energy demand and the participation of electricity in scenarios of medium (2020), long (2035) and very long (2060) terms are estimated. It is also evaluated the share of different primary energies in electricity generation and their availability in the country. Three economic scenarios were considered and different hypothesis regarding the participation of nuclear energy were analyzed. (author)

  19. EU Energy Policy in a Supply-constrained World

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, J.; Van der Linde, C.

    2008-10-01

    Energy is quickly becoming an issue of integration and disintegration of the EU and will perhaps turn out to be the ultimate litmus test of political and economic unity in the EU, as energy issues are increasingly intertwined with wider security issues on the continent. Very often, economic issues are elevated to the political-strategic level, serving a different agenda than merely contributing to the energy policy agenda of the EU. The challenges to the EU and its member states in the energy sector are many: some issues are part of the wider geopolitical and geo-economic agenda, but some are also the product of the new EU that emerged after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The enlargement with member states that are asymmetrically dependent on oil and gas supplies mainly from Russia has further emphasised the growth of structural energy import dependency. Moreover, the new member states did not have the benefit of introducing the energy 'acquis', i.e. liberalisation, in a period of ample supply and relatively low prices. From 2004 onwards, energy has become tighter and more politicised. It was these developments that also uncovered the calculated risk of the old member states to embark on liberalisation without putting a crisis management policy into place. With the increasing worries about the security of supply and the asymmetric exposure of Eastern Europe to a single supplier, energy security issues also began to dominate the internal policy debates both in energy and in external relations. The new developments require the EU member states to consider how and to what extent their external energy policies should also be merged into a more EU-wide approach, if they can agree on the common risks that need to be averted and the common benefits gained, and if and how a crisis mechanism for fuels other than oil is needed to manage the perceived increased security of supply risks. Moreover, they should also consider the internal market design they set out to implement and

  20. The water-energy nexus at water supply and its implications on the integrated water and energy management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalkhali, Masoumeh; Westphal, Kirk; Mo, Weiwei

    2018-09-15

    Water and energy are highly interdependent in the modern world, and hence, it is important to understand their constantly changing and nonlinear interconnections to inform the integrated management of water and energy. In this study, a hydrologic model, a water systems model, and an energy model were developed and integrated into a system dynamics modeling framework. This framework was then applied to a water supply system in the northeast US to capture its water-energy interactions under a set of future population, climate, and system operation scenarios. A hydrologic model was first used to simulate the system's hydrologic inflows and outflows under temperature and precipitation changes on a weekly-basis. A water systems model that combines the hydrologic model and management rules (e.g., water release and transfer) was then developed to dynamically simulate the system's water storage and water head. Outputs from the water systems model were used in the energy model to estimate hydropower generation. It was found that critical water-energy synergies and tradeoffs exist, and there is a possibility for integrated water and energy management to achieve better outcomes. This analysis also shows the importance of a holistic understanding of the systems as a whole, which would allow utility managers to make proactive long-term management decisions. The modeling framework is generalizable to other water supply systems with hydropower generation capacities to inform the integrated management of water and energy resources. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.