Measuring Short-term Energy Security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

Ensuring energy security has been at the centre of the IEA mission since its inception, following the oil crises of the early 1970s. While the security of oil supplies remains important, contemporary energy security policies must address all energy sources and cover a comprehensive range of natural, economic and political risks that affect energy sources, infrastructures and services. In response to this challenge, the IEA is currently developing a Model Of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) to evaluate the energy security risks and resilience capacities of its member countries. The current version of MOSES covers short-term security of supply for primary energy sources and secondary fuels among IEA countries. It also lays the foundation for analysis of vulnerabilities of electricity and end-use energy sectors. MOSES contains a novel approach to analysing energy security, which can be used to identify energy security priorities, as a starting point for national energy security assessments and to track the evolution of a country's energy security profile. By grouping together countries with similar 'energy security profiles', MOSES depicts the energy security landscape of IEA countries. By extending the MOSES methodology to electricity security and energy services in the future, the IEA aims to develop a comprehensive policy-relevant perspective on global energy security. This Brochure provides and overview of the analysis and results. Readers interested in an in-depth discussion of methodology are referred to the MOSES Working Paper.

Short-term and long-term Interconnectedness of stock returns in Western Europe and the global market

OpenAIRE

Panda, Ajaya Kumar; Nanda, Swagatika

2017-01-01

Background: The present study examines the short term dynamics and long term equilibrium relationship among the stock markets of 17 countries in Western Europe as well as the world market, using time series techniques. Methods: Weekly returns of market benchmark indices of the respective countries are used from the second week of 1995 to the fourth week of December 2013. Results: The study finds that the market returns of Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, and France are relatively less dynam...

Energy Efficiency Market Report 2013: Market Trends and Medium-Term Prospects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-07-01

Energy efficiency has been referred to as a ''hidden fuel'', one that extends energy supplies, increases energy security, lowers carbon emissions and generally supports sustainable economic growth. Yet it is hiding in plain sight: in 2011, investments in the energy efficiency market globally were at a similar scale to those in renewable energy or fossil-fuel power generation. The Energy Efficiency Market Report provides a practical basis for understanding energy efficiency market activities, a review of the methodological and practical challenges associated with measuring the market and its components, and statistical analysis of energy efficiency and its impact on energy demand. It also highlights a specific technology sector in which there is significant energy efficiency market activity, in this instance appliances and ICT. The report presents a selection of country case studies that illustrate current energy efficiency markets in specific sectors, and how they may evolve in the medium term. The energy efficiency market is diffuse, varied and involves all energy-consuming sectors of the economy. A comprehensive overview of market activity is complicated by the challenges associated with quantifying the components of the market and the paucity of comparable reported data. This report underscores how vital high-quality and timely energy efficiency data is to understanding this market.

Outlook for electricity markets 2005-2006 : an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-06-01

The National Energy Board monitors the supply of electricity as well as its demand in both domestic and export markets. This document was produced in response to a survey with power generation, transmission and distribution companies, marketers, end-users, environmental groups and government agencies who demonstrated the need for more short-and medium-term energy market assessments to supplement the Board's longer term energy analysis. It on the short-term (2005-2006) issues that can have a long-term effect on the electricity sector. The document presents an analysis of Canadian electricity markets with particular focus on the main drivers affecting current trends in generation, demand, prices, infrastructure additions, and inter-regional and international trade. Current restructuring activities in Canada's electricity industry were also described along with the close relationship between the electricity sectors in Canada and the United States which stems from the integrated nature of the North American power grid. A regional market assessment and a summary was provided for each of Canada's provinces and territories with reference to market structure and current market developments. It was revealed that Canada's electricity markets have developed along provincial or regional boundaries. Utilities have tried to provide adequate and reliable electricity supply, environmental sustainability and acceptable electricity prices. It was concluded that supply is adequate in all regions in the short-term, but tight supply conditions could emerge as early as 2007. Alternative and renewable resource and demand management are becoming more important in addressing air quality issues and supply adequacy. Since uncertainty may delay investment and development of new infrastructure, utilities may be forced to increase electricity prices. It was suggested that interprovincial energy transfers should be further explored. Five recommendations were presented to address the key

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market: A neural network approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catalao, J.P.S.; Mariano, S.J.P.S.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Ferreira, L.A.F.M.

2007-01-01

This paper proposes a neural network approach for forecasting short-term electricity prices. Almost until the end of last century, electricity supply was considered a public service and any price forecasting which was undertaken tended to be over the longer term, concerning future fuel prices and technical improvements. Nowadays, short-term forecasts have become increasingly important since the rise of the competitive electricity markets. In this new competitive framework, short-term price forecasting is required by producers and consumers to derive their bidding strategies to the electricity market. Accurate forecasting tools are essential for producers to maximize their profits, avowing profit losses over the misjudgement of future price movements, and for consumers to maximize their utilities. A three-layered feedforward neural network, trained by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, is used for forecasting next-week electricity prices. We evaluate the accuracy of the price forecasting attained with the proposed neural network approach, reporting the results from the electricity markets of mainland Spain and California. (author)

Pro short-term procurement - U.S. utility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, R.D.

1990-01-01

The author expresses the opinion that rather than focusing market discussions around short-term versus long-term procurement strategies, the parties need to be focusing on how long it is going to take to get to a predominantly market-based price both in uranium and enrichment. Long-term contracts are going to be around and will always be an important part of buyers' and sellers' strategies. It is evident that the annual term contract price renegotiations around the world are resulting in continually lower prices. When these price negotiations finally arrive in the range of the market price, a commodity market that resembles other energy commodity markets can be obtained

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

How much oil will the world consume in 2012? What role will OPEC play in global oil production? Will biofuels become an important part of the oil market? How will the refinery sector cope? The International Energy Agency (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report tackles these questions, adopting a perspective that goes beyond the traditional short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. Drawing on current futures curves and the investment threshold for upstream projects, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report analyses how global demand and supply balances may develop. By assessing all firmly planned upstream and downstream projects worldwide, this report forecasts supply and demand potential for crude and petroleum products over the next five years. The results provide an invaluable insight into vital issues such as surplus production capacity and product supply. An essential report for all policymakers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

Short-term energy outlook, July 1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-07-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

Short-term uranium price formation: a methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsieh, L.Y.; de Graffenried, C.L.

1987-01-01

One of the major problems in analyzing the short-term uranium market is the lack of a well-defined spot market price. The two primary sources of price data covering the US uranium market are the series published by the US Dept. of Energy (DOE) and by the Nuclear Exchange Corporation (NUEXCO), a private brokerage firm. Because of the differences in both definition and coverage, these two series are not directly comparable. In this study, an econometric model was developed for analyzing the interrelationship between short-term uranium price (NUEXCO exchange value), supply, demand, and future price expectations formed by market participants. The validity of this model has been demonstrated by the fact that all simulation statistics derived are highly significant. Three forecasting scenarios were developed in this study

The uranium industry: long-term planning for short-term competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vottero, X.; Georges Capus, G.

2001-01-01

Long term planning for short term competition Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. Firstly, the risk of investing in new mining projects in western countries is growing because, on the one hand, of very erratic market conditions and, on the other hand, of increasingly lengthy, complex and unpredictable regulatory conditions. Secondly, the supply of other sources of uranium (uranium derived from nuclear weapons, uranium produced in CIS countries, ...) involve other risks, mainly related to politics and commercial restrictions. Consequently, competitive uranium supply requires not only technical competence but also financial strength and good marketing capabilities in order to anticipate long-term market trends, in terms of both demand and supply. It also requires taking into account new parameters such as politics, environment, regulations, etc. Today, a supplier dedicated to the sustainable production of nuclear electricity must manage a broad range of long-term risks inherent to the procurement of uranium. Taking into account all these parameters in a context of short-term, fast-changing market is a great challenge for the future generation. World Uranium Civilian Supply and Demand. (authors)

Real-time energy resources scheduling considering short-term and very short-term wind forecast

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silva, Marco; Sousa, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Vale, Zita [Polytechnic of Porto (Portugal). GECAD - Knowledge Engineering and Decision Support Research Center

2012-07-01

This paper proposes an energy resources management methodology based on three distinct time horizons: day-ahead scheduling, hour-ahead scheduling, and real-time scheduling. In each scheduling process the update of generation and consumption operation and of the storage and electric vehicles storage status are used. Besides the new operation conditions, the most accurate forecast values of wind generation and of consumption using results of short-term and very short-term methods are used. A case study considering a distribution network with intensive use of distributed generation and electric vehicles is presented. (orig.)

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

How much oil will the world consume in 2011? What role will OPEC play in global oil production? Will biofuels become an important part of the oil market? The International Energy Agencys (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report tackles these questions, adopting a perspective that goes beyond the traditional short-term market analysis provided in the IEAs monthly Oil Market Report. Drawing on current futures curves and the investment threshold for upstream projects, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report analyses how global demand and supply balances may develop in the next five years. The forecasts look in detail at product demand and the supply potential from all the firmly planned individual upstream and downstream projects around the world. The results provide invaluable insights on vital issues such as surplus production capacity and product supply. The rapid pace of change in the oil market means that forecasts can become outdated very quickly. This interim update provides the opportunity to rebase the data and forecasts in the annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report and to discuss and analyse new issues affecting the oil industry. Policymakers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following trends in the oil market should find this report extremely useful.

Efficient integration of renewable energies in the German electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nabe, C.A.

2006-01-01

Liberalisation of the electricity sector aims to carry out coordination tasks within the system by markets and market prices. This study examines how markets need to be designed to carry out coordination tasks caused by integration of renewable energies in an efficient way. This question is applied to the German electricity system and recommendations are derived from identified deficits. The examination uses the structure-conduct-performance approach of industrial organisation economics. Integration of renewable energies does not result in entirely new coordination tasks but complicates those that exist in any electricity supply system. Within the short-term coordination tasks provision and operation of reserve capacity is affected by renewable energies. Long-term coordination means that the relation between fixed and variable costs of generators as well as generator flexibility has to be adjusted to the characteristics of renewable energies. The relevant short-term coordination task with the network is congestion management. In the long run costs of grid expansion and permanent congestion management have to be balanced. For the execution of short-run coordination tasks integrated and centralised market architectures are superior to decentralised architectures. The increase of short-term coordination tasks due to renewable energies caused by inflexibilities of consumers and conventional generators results in more information that has to be considered. By centralising that information in one market, an increase in productive efficiency can be obtained. In Germany the increased coordination tasks are determined by the integration of wind generators into the electricity system. The present German market architecture results in inefficiencies in short-term coordination. This is demonstrated by an analysis of procedural rules and prices of the ancillary service markets. They demonstrate that market performance is low and significant deviations from competitive prices

Short-term versus long-term contracting for uranium enrichment services

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rudy, G.P.

1990-01-01

The US Department of Energy (US DOE) is the world's largest and most experienced supplier of uranium enrichment services. Through the late 1970s and early 1980s, emerging market forces transformed what was once a monopoly into a highly competitive industry. In the early 1980's the DOE lost market share. But as we enter the 1990s, new market forces have emerged. The US DOE believes a responsible balance between long-term and short-term contracting will be the key to success and the key to assuring the long-term health and reliability of the nuclear fuel industry. The US DOE intends to be in this nuclear business for a long time and will continue to offer reliable and responsive services second to none

Panorama 2012 - Short-term trends in the gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lecarpentier, Armelle

2011-12-01

Against the background of an energy market beset by the Fukushima crisis, the Arab spring and economic uncertainty, 2011 saw dynamic growth in demand for natural gas, although developments varied widely from region to region. New trends are emerging in the gas market, and these will have both short-term and longer-term impacts on how the industry develops. (author)

An Analysis of Short- Term Overreaction to Stock Market News: Iranian Evidence

OpenAIRE

Masoumeh Naderi; Sasan Mekanik

2012-01-01

In Financial markets information is in the form of signs, news and different predictions coming from inside or outside of the company which makes reactions and as a result changes in stock prices. Such as increase and decrease over the limit or long period of times. However, this behavior is non-rational behavior of market which can be a rational response to perceived uncertainty that is understood by investors. We investigate the stock market short –term overreaction. The Aim of this project...

Short-term energy outlook, January 1999

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-01-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from January 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the fourth quarter 1998, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the January 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, first quarter 1995

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-02-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the fourth quarter of 1994, however, are preliminary EIA estimates or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the first quarter 1995 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. The EIA model is available on computer tape from the National Technical Information Service

Short and long-term labour market consequences of coronary heart disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kruse, Marie; Sørensen, Jan; Davidsen, Michael

2009-01-01

National Cohort study and were followed from the year of their first hospital admission for CHD and onwards for up to 23 years. Individuals with CHD were individually matched with individuals without CHD. We analysed their short-term labour market participation and compared the long-term withdrawal risk...... for the two groups through Cox regression. RESULTS: In the year after the first CHD-related admission, 79% of individuals with CHD maintained their labour force participation compared with 93% of individuals without CHD. Individuals with CHD had a hazard ratio of 1.32 for withdrawal compared...... cardiac rehabilitation, which aims to maintain labour market participation. CONCLUSION: Individuals with CHD have a significantly increased risk of withdrawing from the labour market. Especially younger individuals and those employed as manual labour seem to have greater problems in maintaining labour...

Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Alvarez, Jesus; Rodriguez, Eduardo

2008-01-01

This paper analyzes the auto-correlations of international crude oil prices on the basis of the estimation of the Hurst exponent dynamics for returns over the period from 1987 to 2007. In doing so, a model-free statistical approach - detrended fluctuation analysis - that reduces the effects of non-stationary market trends and focuses on the intrinsic auto-correlation structure of market fluctuations over different time horizons, is used. Tests for time variations of the Hurst exponent indicate that over long horizons the crude oil market is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. However, meaningful auto-correlations cannot be excluded for time horizons smaller than one month where the Hurst exponent manifests cyclic, non-periodic dynamics. This means that the market exhibits a time-varying short-term inefficient behavior that becomes efficient in the long term. The proposed methodology and its findings are put in perspective with previous studies and results. (author)

European Short-term Electricity Market Designs under High Penetration of Wind Power

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chaves Avila, J.P.

2014-01-01

The EU has ambitious policies for decarbonization of the electricity sector. Due to recent technological developments, wind power already represents a significant share of the generation mix in some European countries. As a result, short-term electricity markets and balancing arrangements must be

Security of supply in the liberalized energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boffa, Federico

2007-01-01

The incentive schemes in the liberalized energy markets do not ensure short-term security of supply. The paper analyzes the regulatory measures suitable to tackle the issue, and evaluates their effects on market power [it

Market data analysis and short-term price forecasting in the Iran electricity market with pay-as-bid payment mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bigdeli, N.; Afshar, K.; Amjady, N.

2009-01-01

Market data analysis and short-term price forecasting in Iran electricity market as a market with pay-as-bid payment mechanism has been considered in this paper. The data analysis procedure includes both correlation and predictability analysis of the most important load and price indices. The employed data are the experimental time series from Iran electricity market in its real size and is long enough to make it possible to take properties such as non-stationarity of market into account. For predictability analysis, the bifurcation diagrams and recurrence plots of the data have been investigated. The results of these analyses indicate existence of deterministic chaos in addition to non-stationarity property of the system which implies short-term predictability. In the next step, two artificial neural networks have been developed for forecasting the two price indices in Iran's electricity market. The models' input sets are selected regarding four aspects: the correlation properties of the available data, the critiques of Iran's electricity market, a proper convergence rate in case of sudden variations in the market price behavior, and the omission of cumulative forecasting errors. The simulation results based on experimental data from Iran electricity market are representative of good performance of the developed neural networks in coping with and forecasting of the market behavior, even in the case of severe volatility in the market price indices. (author)

Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2008

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-15

Why have oil prices hit US$140 per barrel? How strong will oil demand be in the upcoming years? Will supply of crude oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels be sufficient to meet this future demand? And, no less crucially, what investments in refining capacity and technology can we expect and will these help ease some of the imbalance in strained oil product markets? The Medium-Term Oil Market Report (now in its third year) published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a new benchmark, complementing the short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. This year's edition reappraises all upstream and downstream projects worldwide, setting them against a revised demand forecast and expanding the time horizon to 2013. Special features this year include in-depth analyses of price formation, transport trends, non-OECD economies, non-OPEC production decline, project slippage, key crude export pipeline developments and a stronger emphasis on product supply bottlenecks. An essential report for all policy makers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2008

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-15

Why have oil prices hit US$140 per barrel? How strong will oil demand be in the upcoming years? Will supply of crude oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels be sufficient to meet this future demand? And, no less crucially, what investments in refining capacity and technology can we expect and will these help ease some of the imbalance in strained oil product markets? The Medium-Term Oil Market Report (now in its third year) published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a new benchmark, complementing the short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. This year's edition reappraises all upstream and downstream projects worldwide, setting them against a revised demand forecast and expanding the time horizon to 2013. Special features this year include in-depth analyses of price formation, transport trends, non-OECD economies, non-OPEC production decline, project slippage, key crude export pipeline developments and a stronger emphasis on product supply bottlenecks. An essential report for all policy makers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

PENGARUH KEDALAMAN AIR TERHADAP SHORT TERM MEMORY DAN KONSUMSI ENERGI PADA PENYELAM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rini Dharmastiti

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Penelitian ini akan melihat pengaruh kedalaman air terhadap short term memory dan konsumsi energi penyelam. Penelitian ini mengambil sampel 10 mahasiswa pria dan 5 wanita. Pengukuran performansi short term memory dilakukan dengan cara setiap obyek diperlihatkan deretan 7 angka acak yang diberikan selama 5 detik dan setelah 15 detik kemudian dilakukan pemanggilan kembali informasi yang baru saja diberikan. Setiap obyek diuji sebangak 30 kali untuk setiap kedalaman (1 m; 2,5 m; dan 4 m. Pengukuran konsumsi energi dilakukan dengan menghitung denyut jantung menggunakan metode palpasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa semakin meningkat kedalaman air, maka performasi short term memory penyelam tersebut semakin menurun.  Penurunan ini berlaku untuk pria dan wanita. Penambahan kedalaman ini juga meningkatkan konsumsi energi baik pada pria maupun wanita. Perbedaan jenis kelamin mempengaruhi performansi short term memory secara signifikan. Pria memiliki performansi rata-rata short term memory sebesar 91,67% pada kedalaman 1 m, 90,67% pada kedalaman 2,5 m, dan 86,33% pada kedalaman 4 m. Sedangkan wanita memiliki performansi rata-rata sebesar 86% pada kedalaman 1 m, 84% pada kedalaman 2,5 m, dan 80,67% pada kedalaman 4 m. Rata-rata konsumsi energi pria adalah 3,19 kkal, 3,34 kkal, dan 3,65 kkal pada kedalaman 1 m; 2,5 m; dan 4 m berturut-turut. Sedangkan rata-rata konsumsi energi wanita adalah 3,81 kkal, 4,07 kkal, dan 4,54 kkal pada kedalaman yang sama dengan pria.     Kata kunci : tekanan, kedalaman air, performansi short term memory, konsumsi energi.       This research is to observe water depth effects on short term memory and energy expenditure of diver. This research objects are 10 male and 5 female students. Short term memory performance measurement held by every object has been shown 7 random numerics (as information for 5 seconds and after 15 seconds later they write down the information on a paper. Every object got 30 tests for every

Modelling short and long-term risks in power markets: Empirical evidence from Nord Pool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomikos, Nikos K.; Soldatos, Orestes A.

2010-01-01

In this paper we propose a three-factor spike model that accounts for different speeds of mean reversion between normal and spiky shocks in the Scandinavian power market. In this model both short and long-run factors are unobservable and are hence estimated as latent variables using the Kalman filter. The proposed model has several advantages. First, it seems to capture in a parsimonious way the most important risks that practitioners face in the market, such as spike risk, short-term risk and long-term risk. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium observed in the market and improves the fit between theoretical and observed forward prices, particularly for long-dated forward contracts. Finally, closed-form solutions for forward contracts, derived from the model, are consistent with the fact that the correlation between contracts of different maturities is imperfect. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful policy analysis and financial engineering tool to market participants for risk management and derivative pricing particularly for long-dated contracts.

Demand response in energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skytte, K.; Birk Mortensen, J.

2004-11-01

Improving the ability of energy demand to respond to wholesale prices during critical periods of the spot market can reduce the total costs of reliably meeting demand, and the level and volatility of the prices. This fact has lead to a growing interest in the short-run demand response. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where peak-load periods with high spot prices and occasional local blackouts have recently been seen. Market concentration at the supply side can result in even higher peak-load prices. Demand response by shifting demand from peak to base-load periods can counteract the market power in the peak-load. However, demand response has so far been modest since the current short-term price elasticity seems to be small. This is also the case for related markets, for example, green certificates where the demand is determined as a percentage of the power demand, or for heat and natural gas markets. This raises a number of interesting research issues: 1) Demand response in different energy markets, 2) Estimation of price elasticity and flexibility, 3) Stimulation of demand response, 4) Regulation, policy and modelling aspects, 5) Demand response and market power at the supply side, 6) Energy security of supply, 7) Demand response in forward, spot, ancillary service, balance and capacity markets, 8) Demand response in deviated markets, e.g., emission, futures, and green certificate markets, 9) Value of increased demand response, 10) Flexible households. (BA)

The IEA Model of Short-term Energy Security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

Ensuring energy security has been at the centre of the IEA mission since its inception, following the oil crises of the early 1970s. While the security of oil supplies remains important, contemporary energy security policies must address all energy sources and cover a comprehensive range of natural, economic and political risks that affect energy sources, infrastructures and services. In response to this challenge, the IEA is currently developing a Model Of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) to evaluate the energy security risks and resilience capacities of its member countries. The current version of MOSES covers short-term security of supply for primary energy sources and secondary fuels among IEA countries. It also lays the foundation for analysis of vulnerabilities of electricity and end-use energy sectors. MOSES contains a novel approach to analysing energy security, which can be used to identify energy security priorities, as a starting point for national energy security assessments and to track the evolution of a country's energy security profile. By grouping together countries with similar 'energy security profiles', MOSES depicts the energy security landscape of IEA countries. By extending the MOSES methodology to electricity security and energy services in the future, the IEA aims to develop a comprehensive policy-relevant perspective on global energy security. This Working Paper is intended for readers who wish to explore the MOSES methodology in depth; there is also a brochure which provides an overview of the analysis and results.

Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-10-14

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for printed publication in January, April, July, and October in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates on or about the 6th of each interim month, are available on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the fourth quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. 19 tabs.

Markets and employment related to energy efficiency improvements and renewable energies: situation 2012-2013 and short term outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleuriot, Fanny; Gaudin, Thomas; Guillerminet, Marie-Laure; Louis, Jonathan; Vesine, Eric; Greffet, Pierre; Randriambololona, Celine; Rageau, Francois; Carabot, Cyril

2014-11-01

Since 2008, ADEME has regularly compiled an overview of markets and employment related to the main activities connected with improving energy efficiency and developing renewable sources of energy in France. The activities were selected partly according to their connection with ADEME's field of activity and partly according to their connection with the main policies determined by the Grenelle environment summit. Another factor taken into account was the existence of statistical data enabling the relevant markets to be regularly monitored. Since the very first version of the report, each time it has analysed some thirty market segments, all of which fall into one of three main sectors: - Energy efficiency improvements in residential accommodation: work to improve energy efficiency in existing housing (insulation of outside walls and replacement of windows and doors with more effective solutions), purchase of condensing boilers, energy efficient large household electrical appliances, and compact fluorescent lamps; - Energy efficiency improvements in transport systems: developments in urban public transport systems and railways, including equipment and sales of category A and B private vehicles; - Investments in the production of renewable energy (RE) and sales of renewably sourced energy. Over the years, several new markets have been added, including controlled mechanical ventilation systems (CMV), city bike schemes, etc. For this edition of the report, three new markets have been introduced, each with its own individual 'Market Report': Marine Renewable Energies, Heating Networks, and Hybrid and Electric Vehicles, while thermodynamic domestic boilers and sales of LED lamps have been added to markets for heat-pumps and compact fluorescent lamps respectively. The possibility of including markets related to energy efficiency improvements in industry and non-residential buildings was also investigated, but no regular statistical data enabling proper

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid intelligent approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); Pousinho, H.M.I. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal)

2011-02-15

In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (author)

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid intelligent approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catalao, J.P.S.; Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.

2011-01-01

In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (author)

Adequate intraday market design to enable the integration of wind energy into the European power systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weber, Christoph [University Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Energy Economics and Management Sciences, Universitaetsstrasse 12, 45 117 Essen (Germany)

2010-07-15

This contribution analyses the European electricity markets with respect to their aptitude to absorb large amounts of wind energy. Thereby in a first step the market designs of the major European power markets in France, Germany, Scandinavia, Spain and UK are reviewed, with a particular focus on liquidity in the spot and intraday markets. Then some key features of the short-term adjustments required by wind energy are discussed and the necessity of sufficient liquidity in intraday markets is highlighted. For the example of the German market subsequently the discrepancy between the physical short-term adjustment needs and the traded volumes on the intraday market is analyzed. This leads to an evaluation of proposals for improving the liquidity on the short-term market, including the use of continuous spot trading like in UK or the use of intraday auctions like in Spain. (author)

Long-term development of the Swedish market of energy wood

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dickens, C H

1980-03-01

The aim of the report is to elucidate the long-term development. The sort of wood for industrial purposes also seems to be best suited for the introduction in fuel supply. This might change the conditions precedent for the manufacturing - refining industry. The appraisement should thus cover the total wood market. The report considers three time spans namely the historical development, the description of the actual situation and an estimate of the future. The actual situation presents large regional differences which must be observed for times to come. The potential of the wood industry is its proximity to the European market, its character of long-term productivity, the technical qualifications and its unexploited opportunities as to the markets and the raw materials. The problems of the industry are the following: economy, the energy situation and the limited supply of raw products. The essential parts of the strategy of means are as follows - marketing, product development, the utilization of the qualities of the raw products, improvement of process techniques and the development of a market for energy wood and peat. The study presents recommendations of continued analysis of the market based upon regions of the size of administrative districts.

Low-energy buildings on mainstream market terms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Quitzau, Maj-Britt; Elle, Morten; Hoffmann, Birgitte

2008-01-01

implementation of strict energy performance requirements in mainstream building. The paper describes how the municipality of Egedal experienced a collapse in regulation for low-energy buildings and what struggles it had to take on in order to convince the mainstream building industry and their customers......This paper looks into the challenge of actually implementing energy efficient technologies and concepts in mainstream new build. The aim of the paper is to point out some of the provisos of promoting low-energy buildings on mainstream market terms, emphasising the need to understand forces working...... against implementation of low-energy buildings. The study is based on actor-network theory, emphasising the relations and struggles that form the basis for pushing for low-energy buildings. The paper is based on a case study of the proactive attempt of a Danish municipality to force through an actual...

Energy Storage on the Grid and the Short-term Variability of Wind

Science.gov (United States)

Hittinger, Eric Stephen

profitability of wind farms. We find that market scenarios using existing price signals to motivate wind to reduce variability allow wind generators to participate in variability reduction when the market conditions are favorable, and can reduce short-term (30-minute) fluctuations while having little effect on wind farm revenue.

A three-stage short-term electric power planning procedure for a generation company in a liberalized market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nabona, Narcis; Pages, Adela

2007-01-01

In liberalized electricity markets, generation companies bid their hourly generation in order to maximize their profit. The optimization of the generation bids over a short-term weekly period must take into account the action of the competing generation companies and the market-price formation rules and must be coordinated with long-term planning results. This paper presents a three stage optimization process with a data analysis and parameter calculation, a linearized unit commitment, and a nonlinear generation scheduling refinement. Although the procedure has been developed from the experience with the Spanish power market, with minor adaptations it is also applicable to any generation company participating in a competitive market system. (author)

Long vs. short-term energy storage:sensitivity analysis.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schoenung, Susan M. (Longitude 122 West, Inc., Menlo Park, CA); Hassenzahl, William V. (,Advanced Energy Analysis, Piedmont, CA)

2007-07-01

This report extends earlier work to characterize long-duration and short-duration energy storage technologies, primarily on the basis of life-cycle cost, and to investigate sensitivities to various input assumptions. Another technology--asymmetric lead-carbon capacitors--has also been added. Energy storage technologies are examined for three application categories--bulk energy storage, distributed generation, and power quality--with significant variations in discharge time and storage capacity. Sensitivity analyses include cost of electricity and natural gas, and system life, which impacts replacement costs and capital carrying charges. Results are presented in terms of annual cost, $/kW-yr. A major variable affecting system cost is hours of storage available for discharge.

The Energy Markets of the APEC Countries: Opportunities for Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga Valeryevna Dyomina

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The article evaluates the export possibilities of Russian energy resources to the markets of the APEC countries. The analysis is made with the help of the IEA Model of short-term energy security (MOSES Primary Energy Sources and Secondary Fuels. This model addresses four dimensions of energy security. These include external and domestic factors, reflecting both risk exposure and resilience, the ability of energy systems to adapt to or withstand disruptions. In MOSES countries with similar characteristics are grouped in the energy profiles (from A to E by each energy resource. Countries with profiles from B to E present potential markets for Russian energy resources, while countries with the profile A are our competitors. The most promising market of energy resources is China, but for Russia it is likely to become a monopsony market. The authors assume that Russia will retain its position with respect to the concluded long-term contracts for energy resources supply, but expectations about the formation of a large market niche are overestimated. The study concludes that Russia can strengthen its competitive positions due to the launch of complete products on the markets of the APEC countries, especially, due to the creation of new market niches on the basis of technological leadership

Short-term outlook for Canadian crude oil to 2006 : an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-09-01

The National Energy Board monitors the supply of all energy commodities in Canada along with the demand for Canadian energy commodities in domestic and export markets. This report is intended to expand the effectiveness of the Board's monitoring activities by providing an assessment of the current state of the petroleum industry and the potential for growth. It provides an 18-month outlook on international and domestic crude oil prices; drilling and exploration activity; supply projections for Canadian crude oil and petroleum products; Canada's crude oil trade balance and markets for Canadian crude; existing export pipeline networks and project expansion plans; and, the Canadian petroleum products industry and the impact of higher prices. It also identifies the major issues and challenges associated with the development of Canada's crude oil. The 2 major oil producing areas in Canada are the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) including the oil sands, and offshore eastern Canada. While conventional production in the WCSB is declining, development focus has shifted to Alberta's oil sands as well as Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose, the 3 major oil fields offshore Newfoundland and Labrador. High energy prices have resulted in record profits for the Canadian oil and gas industry, and has stimulated billions of dollars in investment, with Alberta's oil sands being the main beneficiary. The 19 refineries in Canada have been operating at about 90 per cent capacity for the last several years due to strong demand for transportation fuels. 10 tabs., 37 figs., 2 appendices

Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, second quarter 1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-04-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates, are available on the Internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The paper discusses outlook assumptions; US energy prices; world oil supply and the oil production cutback agreement of March 1998; international oil demand and supply; world oil stocks, capacity, and net trade; US oil demand and supply; US natural gas demand and supply; US coal demand and supply; US electricity demand and supply; US renewable energy demand; and US energy demand and supply sensitivities. 29 figs., 19 tabs.

Modelling the short term herding behaviour of stock markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shapira, Yoash; Berman, Yonatan; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

2014-01-01

Modelling the behaviour of stock markets has been of major interest in the past century. The market can be treated as a network of many investors reacting in accordance to their group behaviour, as manifested by the index and effected by the flow of external information into the system. Here we devise a model that encapsulates the behaviour of stock markets. The model consists of two terms, demonstrating quantitatively the effect of the individual tendency to follow the group and the effect of the individual reaction to the available information. Using the above factors we were able to explain several key features of the stock market: the high correlations between the individual stocks and the index; the Epps effect; the high fluctuating nature of the market, which is similar to real market behaviour. Furthermore, intricate long term phenomena are also described by this model, such as bursts of synchronized average correlation and the dominance of the index as demonstrated through partial correlation. (paper)

A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koreneff, G.; Seppaelae, A.; Lehtonen, M.; Kekkonen, V.; Laitinen, E.; Haekli, J.; Antila, E.

1998-01-01

In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koreneff, G; Seppaelae, A; Lehtonen, M; Kekkonen, V [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Laitinen, E; Haekli, J [Vaasa Univ. (Finland); Antila, E [ABB Transmit Oy (Finland)

1998-08-01

In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

Efficient integration of renewable energies in the German electricity market; Effiziente Integration erneuerbarer Energien in den deutschen Elektrizitaetsmarkt

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nabe, C.A.

2006-07-01

Liberalisation of the electricity sector aims to carry out coordination tasks within the system by markets and market prices. This study examines how markets need to be designed to carry out coordination tasks caused by integration of renewable energies in an efficient way. This question is applied to the German electricity system and recommendations are derived from identified deficits. The examination uses the structure-conduct-performance approach of industrial organisation economics. Integration of renewable energies does not result in entirely new coordination tasks but complicates those that exist in any electricity supply system. Within the short-term coordination tasks provision and operation of reserve capacity is affected by renewable energies. Long-term coordination means that the relation between fixed and variable costs of generators as well as generator flexibility has to be adjusted to the characteristics of renewable energies. The relevant short-term coordination task with the network is congestion management. In the long run costs of grid expansion and permanent congestion management have to be balanced. For the execution of short-run coordination tasks integrated and centralised market architectures are superior to decentralised architectures. The increase of short-term coordination tasks due to renewable energies caused by inflexibilities of consumers and conventional generators results in more information that has to be considered. By centralising that information in one market, an increase in productive efficiency can be obtained. In Germany the increased coordination tasks are determined by the integration of wind generators into the electricity system. The present German market architecture results in inefficiencies in short-term coordination. This is demonstrated by an analysis of procedural rules and prices of the ancillary service markets. They demonstrate that market performance is low and significant deviations from competitive prices

Short-term Canadian natural gas deliverability 2005-2007 : an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-10-01

This document examined the factors that influence gas supply in the short-term and presented an outlook for deliverability from 2005 to 2007. Recent trends in the production characteristics of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and the east coast offshore provide a better understanding of the short-term gas supply situation. High natural gas prices have resulted in record levels of drilling in Canada's natural gas exploration and production industry. Drilling levels are expected to remain high as industry will continue to maximize efforts to increase production. However, due to the maturity of the WCSB, the effort will result in only a modest increase in production over the next 2 years. The low decline characteristics of natural gas from coal (NGC) wells will have a stabilizing effect on WCSB deliverability over the long-term. It was noted that approximately 98 per cent of Canadian gas is produced from the WCSB with Alberta accounting for 80 per cent of the output. This assessment provided separate deliverability estimates for conventional gas in the WCSB, NGC, and offshore Nova Scotia. The contribution from offshore Nova Scotia will likely remain in the range of 10 to 11 million cubic metres per day until late 2006, and rise to an average of 13 million cubic metres per day in 2007 with added compression. It was concluded that Canadian deliverability will increase slightly through an increase in drilling activity. It was also noted that the province of Alberta and the petroleum industry are addressing the issue of drilling density, access to resources, noise and other environmental aspects of the expected increase in NGC activity. 3 tabs., 16 figs., 3 appendices

Short-term optimal wind power generation capacity in liberalized electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsina, Fernando; Roescher, Mark; Larisson, Carlos; Garces, Francisco

2007-01-01

Mainly because of environmental concerns and fuel price uncertainties, considerable amounts of wind-based generation capacity are being added to some deregulated power systems. The rapid wind development registered in some countries has essentially been driven by strong subsidizing programs. Since wind investments are commonly isolated from market signals, installed wind capacity can be higher than optimal, leading to distortions of the power prices with a consequent loss of social welfare. In this work, the influence of wind generation on power prices in the framework of a liberalized electricity market has been assessed by means of stochastic simulation techniques. The developed methodology allows investigating the maximal wind capacity that would be profitably deployed if wind investments were subject to market conditions only. For this purpose, stochastic variables determining power prices are accurately modeled. A test system resembling the size and characteristics of the German power system has been selected for this study. The expected value of the optimal, short-term wind capacity is evaluated for a considerable number of random realizations of power prices. The impact of dispersing the wind capacity over statistical independent wind sites has also been evaluated. The simulation results reveal that fuel prices, installation and financing costs of wind investments are very influential parameters on the maximal wind capacity that might be accommodated in a market-based manner

Pro short-term procurement - Broker/trader

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoellen, E.E.

1990-01-01

The author presents his opinion on the issue of short-term versus long-term procurement of uranium and enrichment and the impact on reliability of supply. The progression of the market has been one of increasing commoditization. Utility buyers have moved towards purchasing uranium on the spot market and linking long-term contracts to spot-market pricing. There is some logic to the argument that utilities and the industry in general would be best served by this approach. Inventories would be worked off much more quickly, and unnecessary supply would be shut off until prices recovered to profitable levels. The result would be a healthier market with no detriment to the reliability of supply

Short-term natural gas consumption forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potocnik, P.; Govekar, E.; Grabec, I.

2007-01-01

Energy forecasting requirements for Slovenia's natural gas market were investigated along with the cycles of natural gas consumption. This paper presented a short-term natural gas forecasting approach where the daily, weekly and yearly gas consumption were analyzed and the information obtained was incorporated into the forecasting model for hourly forecasting for the next day. The natural gas market depends on forecasting in order to optimize the leasing of storage capacities. As such, natural gas distribution companies have an economic incentive to accurately forecast their future gas consumption. The authors proposed a forecasting model with the following properties: two submodels for the winter and summer seasons; input variables including past consumption data, weather data, weather forecasts and basic cycle indexes; and, a hierarchical forecasting structure in which a daily model was used as the basis, with the hourly forecast obtained by modeling the relative daily profile. This proposed method was illustrated by a forecasting example for Slovenia's natural gas market. 11 refs., 11 figs

Nuclearelectrica - a player on the Romanian energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chirica, T.; Metes, M.; Havris, A.

2001-01-01

Nuclearelectrica operates at Cernavoda NPP a CANDU 6 unit. The production performances and some technical indicators are presented. The paper introduces the players of the new-born Romanian energy market, where Nuclearelectrica acts as a significant producer, and. gives a short description of the current market mechanisms. The specific features of a producer operating a single nuclear unit, related to both technical and economical terms, are itemized; they are considered in the market rules issued by the Romanian Electricity Regulatory Authority - ANRE. Following these rules, Nuclearelectrica concluded with Electrica, the main energy supplier to final consumers, a long-term energy wholesale contract for all the generated by Cernavoda 1 electricity, based on the so-called Power Purchase Agreement model, where a large part of the risk related to the power sales is borne by the buyer. On the same time, the existing conditions on the Romanian market proved the competitiveness of Cernavoda unit as an energy producer; hence, the above-mentioned contract provides a futile over-protection to the NPP facing the market risks. The paper presents also the critical issue of the collection of revenues for the sold electricity and the company's approach in allotting this limited revenues. In light of the completion of Unit 2 of the Cernavoda NPP, the company's strategy considers new possible contracts, with eligible customers and energy exports.(author)

Short-term energy outlook, October 1998. Quarterly projections, 1998 4. quarter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-10-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the Internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from October 1998 through December 1999. Values for third quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the October 1998 version of the Short-term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding.

Energy management of a university campus utilizing short-term load forecasting with an artificial neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Palchak, David

Electrical load forecasting is a tool that has been utilized by distribution designers and operators as a means for resource planning and generation dispatch. The techniques employed in these predictions are proving useful in the growing market of consumer, or end-user, participation in electrical energy consumption. These predictions are based on exogenous variables, such as weather, and time variables, such as day of week and time of day as well as prior energy consumption patterns. The participation of the end-user is a cornerstone of the Smart Grid initiative presented in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and is being made possible by the emergence of enabling technologies such as advanced metering infrastructure. The optimal application of the data provided by an advanced metering infrastructure is the primary motivation for the work done in this thesis. The methodology for using this data in an energy management scheme that utilizes a short-term load forecast is presented. The objective of this research is to quantify opportunities for a range of energy management and operation cost savings of a university campus through the use of a forecasted daily electrical load profile. The proposed algorithm for short-term load forecasting is optimized for Colorado State University's main campus, and utilizes an artificial neural network that accepts weather and time variables as inputs. The performance of the predicted daily electrical load is evaluated using a number of error measurements that seek to quantify the best application of the forecast. The energy management presented utilizes historical electrical load data from the local service provider to optimize the time of day that electrical loads are being managed. Finally, the utilization of forecasts in the presented energy management scenario is evaluated based on cost and energy savings.

Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fotouhi Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali; Canizes, Bruno; Vale, Zita; Morais, Hugo

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Decision making under uncertainty. ► Stochastic Mixed Integer Quadratic Programming applied to short-term maintenance scheduling. ► Outage scheduling in Oligopolistic electricity markets. ► Generation companies maintenance scheduling. -- Abstract: In the proposed model, the independent system operator (ISO) provides the opportunity for maintenance outage rescheduling of generating units before each short-term (ST) time interval. Long-term (LT) scheduling for 1 or 2 years in advance is essential for the ISO and the generation companies (GENCOs) to decide their LT strategies; however, it is not possible to be exactly followed and requires slight adjustments. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium is used to characterize the decision-making procedure of an individual GENCO for ST intervals considering the effective coordination with LT plans. Random inputs, such as parameters of the demand function of loads, hourly demand during the following ST time interval and the expected generation pattern of the rivals, are included as scenarios in the stochastic mixed integer program defined to model the payoff-maximizing objective of a GENCO. Scenario reduction algorithms are used to deal with the computational burden. Two reliability test systems were chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for the ST decision-making process for future planned outages from the point of view of a GENCO.

Estimating the market premium in short term interest rates

OpenAIRE

Hansen, Hans Fredrik

2006-01-01

Looking at the term structure in the interest rate market one can’t help notice the evident market premium above the central banks target rate. What factors might decide this premium? By using different variations of simple regression models we see that the model is constantly lagging the real time series. Acknowledging the fact that market clearings often are subject to several equations; we’re better able to develop a sensible model using a simultaneous equilibrium model. The multiple equat...

Short-term energy outlook, April 1999

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-04-01

The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from April 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the first quarter 1999, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the April 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated forecasting system (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 25 figs., 19 tabs.

A flexible energy market - electric power reserves at the place of the end-user

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Livik, Klaus; Groenli, Helle; Fretheim, Stig; Feilberg, Nicolai; Gjervan, Sverre; Dymbe, Lars

1996-01-01

If short-term as well as long-term prices in the electric power market are to be stable, then the market must be flexible and both energy and power related efforts must be taken at the end-user's place. The report analyses what type of actors in the electric power market are profiting from a flexible end-user market for energy and power. It is found that a flexible market has utilitarian value for end-users, network owners, suppliers, market operators and system operators. It is also clearly desirable from the point of view of the authorities. Considerable possibilities of developing the flexible energy and power market exist at the end-user. The possibilities can be realized by means of technological developments and political incentives such as by rules for monopoly control. End-user measures may have considerable utilitarian value, socio economically. Especially in areas with high marginal costs of power transport will network owners see the advantages of such measures

Short Term Energy Storage for Grid Support in Wind Power Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stroe, Daniel Ioan; Stan, Ana-Irina; Diosi, Robert

2012-01-01

The penetration of wind power into the power system has been increasing in the recent years. Therefore, a lot of concerns related to the reliable operation of the power system have been addressed. An attractive solution to minimize the limitations faced by the wind power grid integration, and thus...... to increase the power system stability and the energy quality, is to integrate energy storage devices into wind power plants. This paper gives an overview of the state-of-the-art short-term energy storage devices and presents several applications which can be provided by the energy storage device - wind power...

Market survey Austria. Bio-energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Austria has a well developed bioenergy infrastructure as regards solid biomass and a strong growth in the biogas and biofuel sector. The results of a SWOT analysis show the major issues for the development in each of these sectors now and in the short to medium-term future. Based on the SWOT analyses the following conclusions are formulated: (1)The development of the wood biomass sector in Austria is successful. This can be seen from the point of view of the end user, biomass for heating in single houses as well in district heating systems is very widely spread. This created opportunities for Austrian firms producing biomass technology, now having a large market and expending abroad. This development creates, however, major challenges for players from other countries like the Netherlands. It may be difficult to enter this market, unless one offers a cheaper product with the same quality or finding a niche market with a new unique product; (2) The growth of the wood biomass application for heat and electricity has led to the occurrence of another problem, a competition for wood as resource between the energy sector and other applications as pulp and paper industry. Wood imports are nowadays increasing but in the longer term Austria cannot rely on that because of the growing biomass use in neighbouring countries. Austria will therefore have to look for ways how to optimise biomass use for the energy sector and increasing the use of other fuels like straw and other forms of agricultural waste: (3) The production of biogas presents a number of new applications, production of renewable electricity, production of biogas for the transport sector as well as the possibility to inject cleaned biogas into the natural gas grid. In the short term, production of renewable electricity is the most promising for investors as feed-in tariffs are available for these projects. The other applications are still in a pilot phase but may become interesting in the coming years; (4) The

Long-term prospects for oil market stability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Subroto, Dr [OPEC, Vienna (AT)

1989-10-01

OPEC recognize that energy consumption has its social costs and benefits, and that some energy sources impose fewer costs on society. We must consider the environmental implications of oil extraction. Our policies today should enable future generations to secure their energy needs, and OPEC is well-positioned to supply them. An inward-looking OPEC, distracted by internal wranglings and inconsistencies, cannot expect to be a stabilizing force in the oil markets. We have sought, therefore, to put our own house in order. Aside from the debate on depletion policy, a major strain on OPEC stability is the growing tendency towards regionalization in the world oil market. And the absence of universally acceptable quota allocation criteria means that OPEC may have to live with instability for some time to come, but this will be manageable in the short run. In the medium term, however, the call on OPEC oil in the 1990s is predicted to rise to a level commensurate with the sustainable capacities of member states. Producers and consumers have a common interest and should share a similar perspective on the inter-dependence between energy, the environment and economic development. (author).

Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Energy Generation for a Photovoltaic System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dinh V.T.

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This article presents a short-term forecast of electric energy output of a photovoltaic (PV system towards Tomsk city, Russia climate variations (module temperature and solar irradiance. The system is located at Institute of Non-destructive Testing, Tomsk Polytechnic University. The obtained results show good agreement between actual data and prediction values.

Need and design of short-term auctions in the EU gas markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vazquez, Miguel; Hallack, Michelle

2013-01-01

In the EU, gas markets are based on socializing network flexibility services. However, shippers have different preferences on network flexibility, which are not reflected in current allocation models. We propose the introduction of auction mechanisms to allocate network services in the short run. The auction aims to represent simultaneously the diversity of players′ preferences and the trade-offs implied by network constraints. Two sealed-bid auctions are proposed: (a) an auction based on bids for gas, which allocates network services through the minimization of gas price differences; (b) an auction with explicit bids for line-pack, which allows shippers′ valuation of line-pack storage. - Highlights: • EU gas regulation faces serious difficulties in network resource allocation. • We propose two short-term auctions with implicit network allocation. • The difference between the two is the implicit or explicit allocation of line-pack. • The first auction considers line-pack as an instrument to arbitrage gas prices. • The second auction design considers line-pack as a tool to hedge volatility

Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Yuanjing

2015-01-01

This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

Energy in 2010 - 2020. Long term challenges; Energie 2010-2020. Les defis du long terme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dessus, Benjamin [ed.] [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France)

2000-02-02

This report presents the results of a workshop intending to anticipate the long term challenges, to guide better the short term power options, to understand the available political, economical and technical assumptions for the prospective world situation, to give some strategic hints on the necessary transition. Indeed, the difficult issue which the workshop tried to tackle was how should we prepare to reveal the energetic challenge of the development of the eight to ten billion inhabitants of our Planet in the next century without jeopardizing its existence. The energetic problems, a hardcore of the international preoccupation of both growth and environment, as it was recently evidenced by the climatic conference in Kyoto, have ever been the object of a particular attention on the part of General Commissariat of Plan. Thus, the commission 'Energy in 2010 - 2020' has been instituted in April 1996 in order to update the works done in 1990 - 1991 by the commission 'Energy 2010'. Soon it occurred to this new commission the task of illuminating its works by a long term (2050 - 2100) world prospective analysis of the challenges and problems linked to energy, growth and environment. In conclusion, this document tried to find answers to questions like: - which are the risks the energy consumption augmentation entail? - can we control them by appropriate urbanism and transport policies or technological innovation?. Four options for immediate action are suggested: - the energy efficiency should become a priority objective of policies; -coping with the long term challenges requires acting at present; - building the transition between governmental leadership and market; - taking profit of all the possible synergies between short and long term planning.

An adaptive short-term prediction scheme for wind energy storage management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blonbou, Ruddy; Monjoly, Stephanie; Dorville, Jean-Francois

2011-01-01

Research highlights: → We develop a real time algorithm for grid-connected wind energy storage management. → The method aims to guarantee, with ±5% error margin, the power sent to the grid. → Dynamic scheduling of energy storage is based on short-term energy prediction. → Accurate predictions reduce the need in storage capacity. -- Abstract: Efficient forecasting scheme that includes some information on the likelihood of the forecast and based on a better knowledge of the wind variations characteristics along with their influence on power output variation is of key importance for the optimal integration of wind energy in island's power system. In the Guadeloupean archipelago (French West-Indies), with a total wind power capacity of 25 MW; wind energy can represent up to 5% of the instantaneous electricity production. At this level, wind energy contribution can be equivalent to the current network primary control reserve, which causes balancing difficult. The share of wind energy is due to grow even further since the objective is set to reach 118 MW by 2020. It is an absolute evidence for the network operator that due to security concerns of the electrical grid, the share of wind generation should not increase unless solutions are found to solve the prediction problem. The University of French West-Indies and Guyana has developed a short-term wind energy prediction scheme that uses artificial neural networks and adaptive learning procedures based on Bayesian approach and Gaussian approximation. This paper reports the results of the evaluation of the proposed approach; the improvement with respect to the simple persistent prediction model was globally good. A discussion on how such a tool combined with energy storage capacity could help to smooth the wind power variation and improve the wind energy penetration rate into island utility network is also proposed.

Price determinants of the European carbon market and interactions with energy markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schumacher, Katja; Cludius, Johanna; Matthes, Felix [Oeko Institut e.V., Berlin (Germany); Diekmann, Jochen; Zaklan, Aleksandar [Deutsches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin (Germany); Schleich, Joachim [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

2012-06-15

This report explores the determinants of short run price movements in the carbon market and their interaction with energy markets, in particular with the electricity market. Focusing on Phase 2 of the EU ETS we conduct econometric time series analysis based on continental EU and UK market data. Our findings suggest that market fundamentals have a dominant effect on the EUA price, but that non-fundamental factors may also play a role. We further found that the electricity price has a significant positive impact on the carbon price in the short run.

Do Short-Term Managerial Objectives Lead to Under- or Over-Investment in Long-Term Projects

OpenAIRE

Lucian Arye Bebchuk; Lars A. Stole

1994-01-01

This paper studies managerial decisions about investment in long-run projects in the presence of imperfect information (the market knows less about such investments than the firm's managers) and short-term managerial objectives (the managers are concerned about the short-term stock price as well as the long-term stock price). Prior work has suggested that imperfect information and short-term managerial objectives induce managers to underinvest in long-run projects. We show that either underin...

Cross-Correlations between Energy and Emissions Markets: New Evidence from Fractal and Multifractal Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gang-Jin Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We supply a new perspective to describe and understand the behavior of cross-correlations between energy and emissions markets. Namely, we investigate cross-correlations between oil and gas (Oil-Gas, oil and CO2 (Oil-CO2, and gas and CO2 (Gas-CO2 based on fractal and multifractal analysis. We focus our study on returns of the oil, gas, and CO2 during the period of April 22, 2005–April 30, 2013. In the empirical analysis, by using the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA method, we find that cross-correlations for Oil-Gas, Oil-CO2, and Gas-CO2 obey a power-law and are weakly persistent. Then, we adopt the method of DCCA cross-correlation coefficient to quantify cross-correlations between energy and emissions markets. The results show that their cross-correlations are diverse at different time scales. Next, based on the multifractal DCCA method, we find that cross-correlated markets have the nonlinear and multifractal nature and that the multifractality strength for three cross-correlated markets is arranged in the order of Gas-CO2 > Oil-Gas > Oil-CO2. Finally, by employing the rolling windows method, which can be used to investigate time-varying cross-correlation scaling exponents, we analyze short-term and long-term market dynamics and find that the recent global financial crisis has a notable influence on short-term and long-term market dynamics.

Short-term impact evaluation of a social marketing campaign to prevent syphilis among men who have sex with men.

Science.gov (United States)

Darrow, William W; Biersteker, Susan

2008-02-01

We carried out an independent short-term impact evaluation of a social marketing campaign designed to reduce syphilis infections among men who have sex with men in south Florida in 2004. Venue-based surveys were conducted shortly after the campaign began and 6 months later to assess changes in exposure to campaign materials, awareness, knowledge about syphilis, perceptions of risk, sexual behavior, clinic visits, and testing and treatment for syphilis among participants. Exposure to social marketing campaign materials increased from 18.0% at baseline to 36.5% at follow-up (Pcampaign objectives were fully met. The interventions were insufficient to produce a significant impact among men who have sex with men in south Florida.

Determinants of Short-Term Export Performance in Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms.Amber; Habib, Sukaina

2010-01-01

This research investigates the interdependency between independent (Increase of pricing strategy adaptation, Increase of export intensity, Firm's commitment to exporting, Export market development, Export market competition, Past Pricing Strategy Adaptation, Past Export Performance Satisfaction, Past Export Intensity, Export market distance) and dependent variables (i.e. Expected Short-Term Export Performance improvement) of export performance. The framework is tested via a survey through que...

European Energy Markets Deregulation Observatory (EEMDO). Fourth Edition. Winter 2002/2003 data set

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-10-01

In this research publication (European Energy Markets Deregulation Observatory or EEMDO) the levels of deregulation across 17 European countries are assessed. Based upon publicly available quantitative data, analysed and commented, EEMDO provides an accurate overview of European energy markets. Short-term indicators such as liquidity, market volatility, fragmentation, availability of the offer or nature of the demand as well as long-term indicators such as present and future market impacts relative to generation and physical transportation capacities have been examined to provide a clearer picture of the electricity industry across Europe. The 4th edition of EEMDO covers the winter 2002/2003 period (October 2002 - March 2003), when we saw markets entering maturity as factors other than competition start to drive prices. In this edition attention is paid to the evolution of the main indicators designed for EEMDO and for the first time, gas data are included in addition to the traditional data on the electricity market

Climate Policy in Terms of Open Energy Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granic, G.

2015-01-01

This paper describes the objectives and approach to the climate policy impact analysis on the development of energy sector. The analysis included the goals for CO2 emission reduction until 2050, by sectors and in total, with reference to last 5-10 years. The analysis of energy market development in terms of CO2 emission reduction is given, and also the analysis of the final consumption for Croatia in period until 2050. The analysis of measures, of the manner in which the measures are carried out and of the potential of measures for CO2 emission reduction is presented. Estimations of economic and financial indicators for measurement implementation are given. Technological, energy, economic, organizational and institutional limitations are specifically analysed as part of objectives realisation of CO2 emission reduction, as is the risk of measurement implementation. The important parts of CO2 emission reduction policy are: technological development, expectations and possible risks of not achieving the set objectives. The important assumption of CO2 emission reduction objective realisation is institutional organisation of creation of energy policy and measurement implementation, in which the important measure is the forming of Ministry of energy, environment protection and climate change. At the end, recommendations are given, based on the performed analysis. (author).

A GLANCE AT THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET LIBERALIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Delia Vasilica Rotaru

2013-03-01

Full Text Available This paper offers a presentation on the liberalization process on the energy markets that started two decades ago and takes place across Europe in the attempt to create a single European energy market. Several benefits are expected following the deregulation process such as higher competition, market transparency, lower prices, increased efficiency and product development in the clients favour. Three very different energy markets are analyzed before and after the liberalization process – UK, Germany and France – a short insight on the current Romanian energy market is also offered. The aim of this paper is to provide a better understanding on liberalizing European energy markets.

A new cascade NN based method to short-term load forecast in deregulated electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kouhi, Sajjad; Keynia, Farshid

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We are proposed a new hybrid cascaded NN based method and WT to short-term load forecast in deregulated electricity market. • An efficient preprocessor consist of normalization and shuffling of signals is presented. • In order to select the best inputs, a two-stage feature selection is presented. • A new cascaded structure consist of three cascaded NNs is used as forecaster. - Abstract: Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a major discussion in efficient operation of power systems. The electricity load is a nonlinear signal with time dependent behavior. The area of electricity load forecasting has still essential need for more accurate and stable load forecast algorithm. To improve the accuracy of prediction, a new hybrid forecast strategy based on cascaded neural network is proposed for STLF. This method is consists of wavelet transform, an intelligent two-stage feature selection, and cascaded neural network. The feature selection is used to remove the irrelevant and redundant inputs. The forecast engine is composed of three cascaded neural network (CNN) structure. This cascaded structure can be efficiently extract input/output mapping function of the nonlinear electricity load data. Adjustable parameters of the intelligent feature selection and CNN is fine-tuned by a kind of cross-validation technique. The proposed STLF is tested on PJM and New York electricity markets. It is concluded from the result, the proposed algorithm is a robust forecast method

Closing the gap between short- and long-term scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toth, F. L.; Rogner, H.-H.

2005-01-01

Many scenarios published in recent years explore the driving forces and assess plausible ranges of global energy use and the resources they draw on. Some scenarios (e.g., OECD IEA, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development International Energy Agency, 2004) focus on the next decade or two and project the evolution of world energy demand, supply as well as the resources, technologies, and prices to match them. Other scenarios (e.g., the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2000) explore the long term with a view to resource availability and depletion, technological transformations, and environmental concerns, predominantly climate change. A persistent gap (see Figure 1) can be observed in the projections for nuclear energy: near-term scenarios typically project a flat or slightly declining contribution of nuclear energy to the world energy supply whereas medium- and long-term scenarios anticipate significant increases. The magnitude of the gap between the OECD IEA (2002) projections and the median of the 40 IPCC SRES scenarios for the year 2020 amounts to almost 300 GWe installed capacity. Reasons for the gap originate in the differences between the analytical frameworks (including projection techniques) adopted by the short- and long-term studies. Another, closely related reason is the difference in the underlying assumptions, particularly their relations to recent trends and the current situation. In addition, near-term projections are heavily influenced by the social context (perceived unpopularity or outright rejection of nuclear power after Chernobyl), political factors (government pronouncements and policies at the national level, diplomacy and balancing of national positions at international organizations), economic aspects (energy market deregulation and liberalization unveiling excess capacities; financial risks), technology matters (the role of learning, definition of

An analysis of the performance benefits of short-term energy storage in wind-diesel hybrid power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shirazi, M.; Drouilhet, S.

1996-01-01

A variety of prototype high penetration wind-diesel hybrid power systems have been implemented with different amounts of energy storage. They range from systems with no energy storage to those with many hours worth of energy storage. There has been little consensus among wind-diesel system developers as to the appropriate role and amount of energy storage in such systems. Some researchers advocate providing only enough storage capacity to supply power during the time it takes the diesel genset to start. Others install large battery banks to allow the diesel(s) to operate at full load and/or to time-shift the availability of wind-generated electricity to match the demand. Prior studies indicate that for high penetration wind-diesel systems, short-term energy storage provides the largest operational and economic benefit. This study uses data collected in Deering, Alaska, a small diesel-powered village, and the hybrid systems modeling software Hybrid2 to determine the optimum amount of short-term storage for a particular high penetration wind-diesel system. These findings were then generalized by determining how wind penetration, turbulence intensity, and load variability affect the value of short term energy storage as measured in terms of fuel savings, total diesel run time, and the number of diesel starts

Short-term power plant operation scheduling in thermal systems with long-term boundary conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wolter, H.

1990-01-01

For the first time, the modeling of long-term quantitative conditions within the short-term planning of the application of power stations is made via their shadow prices. It corresponds to a decomposition of the quantitative conditions by means of the method of the Langrange relaxation. The shadow prices determined by the planning for energy application regarding long- term quantitative conditions pass into the short-term planning for power station application and subsidize or rather punish the application of limited amounts as for as they are not claimed for sufficiently or excessively. The clear advantage of this modeling is that the short-term planning of power station application can deviate from the envisioned energy application regarding the total optimum, because the shadow prices contain all information about the cost effect of the energy shifts in the residual total period, which become necessary due to the deviations in the short-term period to be planned in the current short-term period. (orig./DG) [de

Natural Gas Year 2014 and Short-Term Outlook First Estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hureau, Geoffroy; Lecarpentier, Armelle

2015-01-01

CEDIGAZ first estimates confirm the slowdown in the growth of gas supply seen in the past two years. CEDIGAZ expects a moderate 1.1% growth, on a par with the previous year. Net slowdown in China's gas demand growth (+ 8% in 2014, versus 16%/y over 2008-13). European natural gas consumption decline worsened (- 10%), largely due to mild weather. Strong decline in CIS' gas production and consumption amidst the Ukraine conflict. Surging US production (+ 5.7%), driven by shale gas. Significant decline in international pipeline trade (- 4.8%): Russian gas exports at the lowest in decade: -13% (- 9.7% to Europe, - 24% to the CIS); US net pipeline imports down 5% (effect of shale gas). 2014 showed a turnaround on the LNG market, after four years of market tightening: Additional LNG supply in Asia, combined with weather-related weak demand. Dramatic reduction of both European and Asian spot LNG prices in this context. Positive developments of US LNG projects (Cameron, Cove Point, Freeport all took FID...), which will likely delay other competing LNG projects (Russia, Canada, East Africa). In the short term, global gas demand growth is likely to remain moderate. The European market will continue to suffer from strong competition with coal and renewables + slowdown in Chinese gas demand growth. Uncertainties on the future evolution of the well-supplied LNG market and international prices until 2020 (demand in price-sensitive emerging markets...). Increasing pressure to cut subsidies in emerging markets in order to increase supply for a more viable development of natural gas in the long term. Recent structural and not temporary factors which could affect long term gas demand growth, such as the competition with other energy fuels (coal). Energy policies and general environmental regulations will thus be critical factors influencing natural gas demand (China). The Asian market will keep a major influence on the global LNG market

Petroleum term markets and OPEC producers countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bensarsa, F.

1994-01-01

The situation of petroleum producers countries in front of term markets is described. With an economics liberalization, policy configuration changing the energetic balance (increasing of american imports, of asiatic demand and developing countries; decreasing of russian production), a more efficient technology, a right management of energetic resources with energy economy, renewable energies and non polluting energies, it is difficult for producers countries to resist at the pressure of financing tools, more and more modern and efficient as they are term markets

The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moutinho, Victor; Vieira, Joel; Carrizo Moreira, Antonio

2011-01-01

The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: → We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. → We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. → We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. → We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. → The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

Renewable energy technologies: costs and markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nitsch, J.; Langniss, O.

1997-01-01

A prominent feature of renewable energy utilisation is the magnitude of renewable energy that is physically available worldwide. The present paper attempts an economic valuation of development strategies for renewable energy sources (RES) on the basis of the past development of RES markets. It comes to the conclusion that if current energy prices remain largely unchanged, it will be necessary to promote RES technologies differentially according to the technique and type of energy employed or to provide start-up funding. The more probable a long-term increase in energy prices becomes, the greater will be the proportion of successfully promoted technologies. Energy taxes on exhaustible or environmentally harmful energy carriers and other instruments to this end would contribute greatly to the attractivity of RES investment both in terms of national economy and from the viewpoint of the private investor. Renewable energies will play an important role in the hardware and services sectors of the energy market in the decades to come. Long-term promotion of market introduction programmes and unequivocal energy-political aims on the part of the government are needed if the German industry is to have a share in this growing market and be able to offer internationally competitive products [de

Adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting using artificial neural networks in the restructured power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamin, H.Y.; Shahidehpour, S.M.; Li, Z.

2004-01-01

This paper proposes a comprehensive model for the adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in the restructured power markets. The model consists: price simulation, price forecasting, and performance analysis. The factors impacting the electricity price forecasting, including time factors, load factors, reserve factors, and historical price factor are discussed. We adopted ANN and proposed a new definition for the MAPE using the median to study the relationship between these factors and market price as well as the performance of the electricity price forecasting. The reserve factors are included to enhance the performance of the forecasting process. The proposed model handles the price spikes more efficiently due to considering the median instead of the average. The IEEE 118-bus system and California practical system are used to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model. (author)

Market penetration rates of new energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lund, Peter

2006-01-01

The market penetration rates of 11 different new energy technologies were studied covering energy production and end-use technologies. The penetration rates were determined by fitting observed market data to an epidemical diffusion model. The analyses show that the exponential penetration rates of new energy technologies may vary from 4 up to over 40%/yr. The corresponding take-over times from a 1% to 50% share of the estimated market potential may vary from less than 10 to 70 years. The lower rate is often associated with larger energy impacts. Short take-over times less than 25 years seem to be mainly associated with end-use technologies. Public policies and subsides have an important effect on the penetration. Some technologies penetrate fast without major support explained by technology maturity and competitive prices, e.g. compact fluorescent lamps show a 24.2%/yr growth rate globally. The penetration rates determined exhibit some uncertainty as penetration has not always proceeded close to saturation. The study indicates a decreasing penetration rate with increasing time or market share. If the market history is short, a temporally decreasing functional form for the penetration rate coefficient could be used to anticipate the probable behavior

Optimal short-term operation schedule of a hydropower plant in a competitive electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez-Diaz, Juan I.; Wilhelmi, Jose R.; Arevalo, Luis A.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a dynamic programming model to solve the short-term scheduling problem of a hydropower plant that sells energy in a pool-based electricity market with the objective of maximizing the revenue. This is a nonlinear and non-concave problem subject to strong technical and strategic constraints, and in which discrete and continuous variables take part. The model described in this paper determines, in each hour of the planning horizon (typically from one day to one week), both the optimal number of units in operation (unit commitment) and the power to be generated by the committed units (generation dispatch). The power generated by each unit is considered as a nonlinear function of the actual water discharge and volume of the associated reservoir. The dependence of the units' efficiency and operating limits with the available gross head is also accounted for in this model. The application of this model to a real hydropower plant demonstrates its capabilities in providing the operation schedule that maximizes the revenue of the hydro plant while satisfying several constraints of different classes. In addition, the use of this model as a supporting tool to estimate the economic feasibility of a hydropower plant development project is also analyzed in the paper. (author)

The uranium industry: long term planning for short term competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vottero, X.

2000-01-01

Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. (authors)

Quantitative and experimental analysis of investment incentive mechanisms in electricity markets: short- and long-term analysis of actors' strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalfallah, Mohamed Haikel

2009-01-01

In this thesis, we deal with the question of reliability of electricity system and particularly the problem of generation capacity adequacy in electricity markets, characterized by uncertain and volatile demand. This question is currently the object of many politics and economics debates in the European Commission of energy. It occurs within the context of de-regulations and reforms of liberalization operated in western countries. This deregulation was caused many shortages and crisis in many electricity markets in the world. Failures are caused by several factors such as, the presence of uncertainties on future demand and fuel prices, the risk-averse behavior of investors and the market power exercised by existing generators. They had led to high spot market prices and a fundamental imbalance between the steadily growing demand for power and the limited increases, due to the lack of investments, in generation capacities. Many mechanisms, additional to the energy market, that ensure an adequate incentive for investments and a stable and socially acceptable electricity prices have been proposed. In this work, we compare different investment incentive mechanisms, in terms of long-term capacity adequacy in an uncertain environment, cost effectiveness and the ability of reducing market power. In the literature, the problem of long-term system reliability has been largely studied in qualitative terms. A few works attempt to model the quantitative effects of those market designs. The contribution of this work is to propose a quantitative analysis based on dynamics models. Competition is considered by using the principles of game theory. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to deal with the stochastic environment of the market and mixed complementarity problem and variational inequality formulations are employed to find Nash equilibrium. In addition to the analytic analysis, an experimental study is carried out in order to include a larger diversity of strategy. The

Evaluating the Impact of an Active Labour Market Policy on Employment: Short- and Long-Term Perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José M. Cansino

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The Labour Market Insertion Contract was an Active Labour Market Policy introduced in Spain. It was aimed at individuals who had difficulties entering the labour market, and it was introduced with the purpose of reducing the rate of unemployment. This article provides an estimation of the average impact that this contract had on the employability of individuals in the short and long term. A microeconomic analysis was carried out based on causal statistical inference by using propensity score matching and kernel and radial estimators. Data was taken from the most comprehensive database available, which is the Continuous Sample of Work Histories. Results are consistent with literature reports and show that the employability of participants was inferior to that of individuals with similar, temporary-type contracts. This research contributes to the literature by evaluating whether there was empirical evidence to support the political decision to revoke or replace this kind of direct employment programme.

Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

2006-01-01

In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

Investments in electricity generation in Croatian liberalized market: energy option

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Androcec, I.; Viskovic, A.; Slipac, G.

2004-01-01

, economic, ecological, sociological and other features. It will be discussed about candidates for construction in the period of next ten years which represents investment opportunities for potential investors. But the problem is that in market conditions no one can be imposed the obligation to build new power plants. Technological and financial terms of new power plant is under influence of the law of supply and demand, so short marginal costs are in the first view (power plant life is at least 30 years) how to deal with this conditions, who will invest in long-term projects with condition of short pay-back period. This paper will try to give some directions for decision of investment in electricity generation under liberalised conditions with evaluation of possible energy options.(author)

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Zuwei

2003-01-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zuwei Yu

2003-01-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zuwei Yu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States). Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering

2003-05-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, Zuwei [Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, Room 334, 1293 A.A. Potter, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States)

2003-05-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets.

Panorama 2016 - Short-term trends in the gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lecarpentier, Armelle

2015-12-01

In an environment marked by slowing economic growth in emerging markets and developing countries, trends in gas market fundamentals varied widely across the regions during 2015. Structural economic factors stifled growth in natural gas demand, which was unable to take up all the excess supply, leading to imbalance in the global gas market and price weakness which is expected to continue in the short and medium-term. (author)

A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suseelatha Annamareddi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks.

A novel inclusion of intermittent generation resources in long term energy auctions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marambio, Rodrigo; Rudnick, Hugh

2017-01-01

Long term energy auctions are positioning as a valuable tool in order to attract new investments into power systems, especially in Latin American countries where emergent economies characteristics and their correspondent risks are usually present. Even though the focus of these auctions is the long term, there are short term issues involved which actual auction designs fail to include, resulting in an energy allocation that is not necessarily optimal for the system, a condition which becomes more evident in the presence of intermittent renewable technologies. A novel mechanism is formulated to obtain the optimal allocation in long term energy auctions, considering short term generation profiles from both intermittent and conventional base load technologies, and also their risk aversions. The proposed mechanism is developed and simulations are made for some scenarios in the Chilean power market, with different levels of renewable penetration. Significant cost savings are achieved for the final consumers in relation to energy purchases, in comparison with a mechanism that follows the demand profile. As more renewable intermittent capacity enters the power system it is evident the need for changes in the energy auctions allocation mechanisms, including elements to exploit the synergies among participants in the short term. - Highlights: • Risk management consideration in technology neutral auctions allocation. • Allocation mechanism in technology neutral auctions with intermittent technologies. • Renewable and conventional technologies energy auction offer curves. • Increase bid prices in auctions as a consequence of solar technology support.

Integration of 18 GW Wind Energy into the Energy Market. Practical Experiences in Germany. Experiences with large-scale integration of wind power into power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krauss, C.; Graeber, B.; Lange, M.; Focken, U.

2006-01-01

This work describes the integration of 18 GW of wind power into the German energy market. The focus lies on reporting practical experiences concerning the use of wind energy in Germany within the framework of the renewable energy act (EEG) and the immediate exchange of wind power between the four German grid control areas. Due to the EEG the demand for monitoring the current energy production of wind farms and for short-term predictions of wind power has significantly increased and opened a broader market for these services. In particular for trading on the intraday market ultra short term predictions in the time frame of 1 to 10 hours require different approaches than usual dayahead predictions because the large numerical meteorological models are not sufficiently optimized for very short time horizons. It is shown that for this range a combination of a statistical and a deterministic model leads to significant improvements and stable results as it unites the characteristics of the current wind power production with the synoptic-scale meteorological situation. The possible concepts of balancing the remaining differences between predicted and actual wind power generation are discussed. As wind power prediction errors and load forecasting errors are uncorrelated, benefits can arise from a combined balancing. Finally practical experiences with wind power fluctuations and large forecast errors are presented.

Short-term hydropower production planning by stochastic programming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fleten, Stein-Erik; Kristoffersen, Trine

2008-01-01

-term production planning a matter of spatial distribution among the reservoirs of the plant. Day-ahead market prices and reservoir inflows are, however, uncertain beyond the current operation day and water must be allocated among the reservoirs in order to strike a balance between current profits and expected......Within the framework of multi-stage mixed-integer linear stochastic programming we develop a short-term production plan for a price-taking hydropower plant operating under uncertainty. Current production must comply with the day-ahead commitments of the previous day which makes short...

Energy storage systems impact on the short-term frequency stability of distributed autonomous microgrids, an analysis using aggregate models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Serban, Ioan; Teodorescu, Remus; Marinescu, Corneliu

2013-01-01

This study analyses the integration impact of battery energy storage systems (BESSs) on the short-term frequency control in autonomous microgrids (MGs). Short-term frequency stability relates with the primary or speed control level, as defined in the regulations of the classical grids. The focus...

Influence of market factors on the pricing of exchange traded metals in the medium term

Science.gov (United States)

Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.

2017-06-01

On the basis of comparison of the influence of the stock exchange factors on the pricing of nonferrous metals for medium term with similar results for short term, it has been established that the main attention should be paid to the changes in the pricing environment on the metal market as a function of the prices of exchange traded metals. The situation on the market of energy carriers (hydrocarbons) and the European, American, and Asian stock exchanges can be based on parity and even significantly influence the variation of the metal prices. In the medium term, constructive development of metal trade should be reasonably promoted by changing the elasticity of supply with regard to prices for exchange traded metals and by applying the stock exchange factors that positively influence the pricing on commodity and stock markets.

Non-energy markets for small roundwood, forest residues and short rotation coppice

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watt, G.

1995-06-01

Competition for roundwood is intense at the present time with prices ranging from approximately Pound 20 to Pound 51 per green tonne delivered at mill. The sawmilling industry produces nearly 2 million green tonnes of residues annually from converting British roundwood and about 85% of this is used by the panelboard and paperboard mills. The remaining 15%, comprising mostly bark, and some of the unpeeled chips are used as material for mulching, landscaping and horticultural use, play areas, paths and horse gallops, soil composting and soil conditioning. Wood shavings and sawdust is produced by joinery and milling firms from imported sawn timber and amounts to about 300,000 tonnes/annum. Approximately 70% of this is used for higher priced markets, bedding for horses, chicken and turkeys, cattle and other uses. The remaining 30% is used in the wood processing industry. An increasing volume of solid wood waste which previously went for landfill sites is now being recycled and this trend is expected to continue. Only a very small proportion of the forest residues (tree tops and branches) produced each year is utilised and most of this material is used as mulch for horticultural and landscape uses. Markets for material from traditional short rotation coppice are limited relative to potential production but work is underway to develop new markets. There are no established markets for recently planted non-traditional coppice of willow and poplar with potential for energy production. Trials organised by ETSU and the DTI have indicated the suitability of the material for chipboard production provided the bark percentage is not too high. (author)

Non-energy markets for small roundwood, forest residues and short rotation coppice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watt, G.

1995-01-01

Competition for roundwood is intense at the present time with prices ranging from approximately Pound 20 to Pound 51 per green tonne delivered at mill. The sawmilling industry produces nearly 2 million green tonnes of residues annually from converting British roundwood and about 85% of this is used by the panelboard and paperboard mills. The remaining 15%, comprising mostly bark, and some of the unpeeled chips are used as material for mulching, landscaping and horticultural use, play areas, paths and horse gallops, soil composting and soil conditioning. Wood shavings and sawdust is produced by joinery and milling firms from imported sawn timber and amounts to about 300,000 tonnes/annum. Approximately 70% of this is used for higher priced markets, bedding for horses, chicken and turkeys, cattle and other uses. The remaining 30% is used in the wood processing industry. An increasing volume of solid wood waste which previously went for landfill sites is now being recycled and this trend is expected to continue. Only a very small proportion of the forest residues (tree tops and branches) produced each year is utilised and most of this material is used as mulch for horticultural and landscape uses. Markets for material from traditional short rotation coppice are limited relative to potential production but work is underway to develop new markets. There are no established markets for recently planted non-traditional coppice of willow and poplar with potential for energy production. Trials organised by ETSU and the DTI have indicated the suitability of the material for chipboard production provided the bark percentage is not too high. (author)

Proceedings of the 13th forum: Croatian Energy Day: Long-term planning and consumer supply safety in open market conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granic, G.; Jelavic, B.

2004-01-01

The process of opening up the energy market has been proceeding at an accelerating pace; legislative and institutional prerequisites have come into existence for a transparent and nondiscriminatory approach to energy systems (networks), and for an easy market access to suppliers by granting customers the right of supplier choice. National borders - once an obstacle to energy market development - are thus eliminated. Advantages of this sort of development strategy for energy markets include top-quality competition and market de-monopolization, which in turn, as a rule, imply a more favorable position for the users of energy system services, for energy buyers / purchasers, and for consumers. However, the coexistence of internal (national) and international competitions raises the issue of the framework and contents of long-term planning, as well as of the liability of states and government institutions for the adequacy, security, and stability of energy sources, and consequently for customer supply security

Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

Aspects if stochastic models for short-term hydropower scheduling and bidding

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Belsnes, Michael Martin [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway); Follestad, Turid [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway); Wolfgang, Ove [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway); Fosso, Olav B. [Dep. of electric power engineering NTNU, Trondheim (Norway)

2012-07-01

This report discusses challenges met when turning from deterministic to stochastic decision support models for short-term hydropower scheduling and bidding. The report describes characteristics of the short-term scheduling and bidding problem, different market and bidding strategies, and how a stochastic optimization model can be formulated. A review of approaches for stochastic short-term modelling and stochastic modelling for the input variables inflow and market prices is given. The report discusses methods for approximating the predictive distribution of uncertain variables by scenario trees. Benefits of using a stochastic over a deterministic model are illustrated by a case study, where increased profit is obtained to a varying degree depending on the reservoir filling and price structure. Finally, an approach for assessing the effect of using a size restricted scenario tree to approximate the predictive distribution for stochastic input variables is described. The report is a summary of the findings of Work package 1 of the research project #Left Double Quotation Mark#Optimal short-term scheduling of wind and hydro resources#Right Double Quotation Mark#. The project aims at developing a prototype for an operational stochastic short-term scheduling model. Based on the investigations summarized in the report, it is concluded that using a deterministic equivalent formulation of the stochastic optimization problem is convenient and sufficient for obtaining a working prototype. (author)

Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-08-01

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration's (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook

Battery energy storage market feasibility study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kraft, S. [Frost and Sullivan, Mountain View, CA (United States); Akhil, A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Energy Storage Systems Analysis and Development Dept.

1997-07-01

Under the sponsorship of the Department of Energy`s Office of Utility Technologies, the Energy Storage Systems Analysis and Development Department at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) contracted Frost and Sullivan to conduct a market feasibility study of energy storage systems. The study was designed specifically to quantify the energy storage market for utility applications. This study was based on the SNL Opportunities Analysis performed earlier. Many of the groups surveyed, which included electricity providers, battery energy storage vendors, regulators, consultants, and technology advocates, viewed energy storage as an important enabling technology to enable increased use of renewable energy and as a means to solve power quality and asset utilization issues. There are two versions of the document available, an expanded version (approximately 200 pages, SAND97-1275/2) and a short version (approximately 25 pages, SAND97-1275/1).

Structuring spot, short and long term gas contracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gretener, N.M.

1996-01-01

A review of the core clauses of the modern natural gas purchase and sales contracts, was presented. There exists a wide variety of terms which can be used by a seller and a buyer to customize such a contract to suit particular circumstances. On the basis of length of term, gas contracts may classified as spot contracts having a term of 30 days or less, short term contracts having a term of 30 days to one to two years, and long term contracts having terms greater than two years. The three key elements which are applicable to all gas sales contracts are the contract price, the seller's obligation to deliver, and the buyer's obligation to accept. Other provisions that may be included in any gas sales contract in addition to the basic three were reviewed, including market pricing, load factor incentive pricing, seasonal pricing, pipeline demand charges, market shares, and the seller's right to decontract

Long-term contracts vs. short-term trade of natural gas - a European perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neuhoff, Karsten; Hirschhausen, Christian von

2005-01-01

This paper analyses the economics of long-term gas contracts under changing institutional conditions, mainly gas sector liberalisation. The paper is motivated by the increasingly tense debate in continental Europe, UK and the US on the security of long-term gas supply. We discuss the main issues regarding long-term contracts, i.e. the changing role of the flexibility clause, the effect of abandoning the destination clause, and the strategic behaviour of producers between long-term sales and spot-sales. The literature suggests consumers and producers benefit from risk hedging through long-term contracts. Furthermore long-term contracts may reduce exercise of market power. Our analysis adds an additional benefit if the long-run demand elasticity is significantly lower than the short-run elasticity, both strategic producers and consumers benefit from lower prices and larger market volume. Some policy implications of the findings are also discussed. (Author)

Battery energy storage market feasibility study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kraft, S.; Akhil, A.

1997-07-01

Under the sponsorship of the Department of Energy's Office of Utility Technologies, the Energy Storage Systems Analysis and Development Department at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) contracted Frost and Sullivan to conduct a market feasibility study of energy storage systems. The study was designed specifically to quantify the energy storage market for utility applications. This study was based on the SNL Opportunities Analysis performed earlier. Many of the groups surveyed, which included electricity providers, battery energy storage vendors, regulators, consultants, and technology advocates, viewed energy storage as an important enabling technology to enable increased use of renewable energy and as a means to solve power quality and asset utilization issues. There are two versions of the document available, an expanded version (approximately 200 pages, SAND97-1275/2) and a short version (approximately 25 pages, SAND97-1275/1)

Evaluation of the price volatility of short-term in Brazil and its relation with the thermal generation; Avaliacao da volatilidade do preco de curto prazo no Brasil e sua relacao com a geracao termica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heideier, R.B.; Prado, F.A.A.; Saidel, M.A.; Ueocka, M.Z. [Universidade de Sao Paulo (EPUSP), SP (Brazil). Escola Politecnica. Dept. de Energia e Automacao Eletricas], E-mails: fernando@sinerconsult.com.br, saidel@pea.usp.br, marcos.ueocka@poli.usp.br

2009-07-01

This article evaluate the intensity of volatility of the electric power prices in the short term market in selected countries. It were analyzed historical series of monthly prices of major energy markets worldwide, with assessment of the energy matrix of each region. The study, by analysis of data entry program for optimizing the operation of the SIN (NEWAVE and DECOM), concludes that the price volatility in short-term in Brazil is marked by the large variation of thermal power available, especially the lack of natural gas.

A golden age or a false dawn? Energy efficiency in UK competitive energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eyre, N.

1998-01-01

Liberalisation of energy markets may affect the prospects for energy efficiency in a variety of ways. Downward pressure on prices will reduce incentives for efficiency and the end of a supply monopoly makes more difficult mandating demand side management programmes. On the other hand, the removal of price controls could end some regulatory disincentives, and liberalisation enables suppliers to market energy efficiency bundled with energy units. The overall effects of liberalisation for energy efficiency are therefore complex. This paper focuses on the effects of liberalisation on those characteristics of energy markets which underpin long-term energy inefficiency. These barriers to energy efficiency have been shown to arise from fundamental features of traditional utility markets - notably centralisation, commoditization and the complexity of demand side investment. The extent to which these will be altered in liberalised markets in the UK is considered. It is concluded that some important market imperfections are not addressed by competition in the supply of energy commodities. However, more fundamental changes may in the longer term encourage more differentiation in supply markets, in which there could be higher priority for energy efficiency. The policy measures which might encourage the process are discussed. (author)

Market Potential for Non-electric Applications of Nuclear Energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konishi, T.; Kononov, S.; Kupitz, J.; McDonald, A.; Rogner, H.H.; Nisan, S.

2002-01-01

The paper presents results of a recent IAEA study to assess the market potential for non-electric applications of nuclear energy in the near (before 2020) and long term (2020-2050). The applications covered are district heating, desalination, industrial heat supply, ship propulsion, energy supply for spacecraft, and, to a lesser extent, 'innovative' applications such as hydrogen production, coal gasification, etc. While technical details are covered only briefly, emphasis is placed on economics and other factors that may promote or hinder the penetration of nuclear options in the markets for non-electric energy services. The study makes a distinction between the market size (demand for a given service) and the market potential for nuclear penetration (which may be smaller because of technical or non-technical constraints). Near-term nuclear prospects are assessed on the basis of on-going projects in the final stages of design or under construction. For the long term, use has been made of a qualitative scale ranging from 0 to 2 for five critical areas: market structure, demand pressure, technical basis, economic competitiveness, and public acceptance. The paper presents the resulting evaluation of long-term prospects for nuclear energy entering into non-electric markets. (authors)

Forecasting short-term wind farm production in complex terrain. Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LeBlanc, M.

2005-01-01

Wind energy forecasting adds financial value to wind farms and may soon become a regulatory requirement. A robust information technology system is essential for addressing industry demands. Various forecasting methodologies for short-term wind production in complex terrain were presented. Numerical weather predictions were discussed with reference to supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system site measurements. Forecasting methods using wind speed, direction, temperature and pressure, as well as issues concerning statistical modelling were presented. Model output statistics and neural networks were reviewed, as well as significant components of error. Results from a Garrad Hassan forecaster with a European wind farm were presented, including wind speed evaluation, and forecast horizon for T + 1 hours, T + 12 hours, and T + 36 hours. It was suggested that buy prices often reflect the cost of under-prediction, and that forecasting has more potential where the spread is greatest. Accurate T + 19 hours to T + 31 hours could enable participation in the day-ahead market, which is less volatile and prices are usually better. Estimates of possible profits per annum through the use of GH forecaster power predictions were presented, calculated over and above spilling power to the grid. It was concluded that accurate forecasts combined with certainty evaluation enables the optimization of wind energy in the market, and is applicable to a wide range of weather regimes and terrain types. It was suggested that site feedback is essential for good forecasts at short horizons, and that the value of forecasting is dependent on the market. refs., tabs., figs

The European market of renewable energies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2011-09-01

This market study on renewable energies presents: 1 - the different renewable energy industries for power generation: the field of renewable energies (hydropower, wind power, solar energy, geothermal energy and biomass power plants) and their common points, their characteristics, advantages and constraints; 2 - the political and regulatory context with its ambitious goals: main steps of worldwide negotiations, Europe and the management of CO 2 emissions, stiffening of the environmental regulation, the energy/climate package and the efforts to be borne by the different member states; 3 - Economy of the sector and the necessary public support: investment and production costs by industry, wholesale prices and competitiveness of the different power generation means, government's incentives for projects profitability; 4 - dynamics of the European market of renewable energies: energy-mix and evolution of the renewable energies contribution in the world and in the European Union, key-figures by country and by industry (installed capacity, production, turnover, employment); 5 - medium-term development perspectives: 2020 prospect scenarios, evolution of the energy mix, perspectives of development for each industry; 6 - the strengths in presence in the domain of facilities: main manufacturers, market shares, innovations, vertical integration, external growth; 7 - the strengths in presence in the domain of power facilities operation: main European operators, position and ranking, installed capacities, projects portfolio; 8 - medium-term perspectives of reconfiguration: best-positioned operators in a developing market, future of European manufacturers with respect to Asian ones, inevitable concentration in the operation sector. (J.S.)

Short-Term Planning of Hybrid Power System

Science.gov (United States)

Knežević, Goran; Baus, Zoran; Nikolovski, Srete

2016-07-01

In this paper short-term planning algorithm for hybrid power system consist of different types of cascade hydropower plants (run-of-the river, pumped storage, conventional), thermal power plants (coal-fired power plants, combined cycle gas-fired power plants) and wind farms is presented. The optimization process provides a joint bid of the hybrid system, and thus making the operation schedule of hydro and thermal power plants, the operation condition of pumped-storage hydropower plants with the aim of maximizing profits on day ahead market, according to expected hourly electricity prices, the expected local water inflow in certain hydropower plants, and the expected production of electrical energy from the wind farm, taking into account previously contracted bilateral agreement for electricity generation. Optimization process is formulated as hourly-discretized mixed integer linear optimization problem. Optimization model is applied on the case study in order to show general features of the developed model.

Creating a vision for the future. Long-term R and D on a short sighted electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markussen, P.; Darsoe, L.

2005-01-01

Historically well-established networks among the politicians, power companies, industry, and research institutions have with success dominated innovation in the energy sector. As a consequence of the liberalization in the late 90s, long-term investments have been reduced and because of the increased competition R and D in power companies around Europe is dominated by short-term projects focusing on technological performance and efficiency of the power stations. The energy sector is, however, still faced with long-term problems such as security of supply, environmental responsibilities and economic performance, and these challenges demand new solutions, which, in our opinion, should be obtained through collaboration and co-creation. This calls for social innovation based on new types of relations between research institutions, politicians and the energy supply sector. Thus the goals of this paper are to: 1) suggest a preject phase (Darsoe, 2001), where it is possible and legitimate for the stakeholders to discuss longterm visions that encompass a diversity of technologies, and 2) use scenario techniques as tools for conceptualizing and prototyping this vision. The main question is: How can we create a long-term vision for the Danish energy system that is meaningful to multiple stakeholders? (au)

Creating a vision for the future. Long-term R and D on a short sighted electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Markussen, P. [Elsam (Denmark); Darsoe, L. [Learning Lab. Denmark (Denmark)

2005-06-01

Historically well-established networks among the politicians, power companies, industry, and research institutions have with success dominated innovation in the energy sector. As a consequence of the liberalization in the late 90s, long-term investments have been reduced and because of the increased competition R and D in power companies around Europe is dominated by short-term projects focusing on technological performance and efficiency of the power stations. The energy sector is, however, still faced with long-term problems such as security of supply, environmental responsibilities and economic performance, and these challenges demand new solutions, which, in our opinion, should be obtained through collaboration and co-creation. This calls for social innovation based on new types of relations between research institutions, politicians and the energy supply sector. Thus the goals of this paper are to: 1) suggest a preject phase (Darsoe, 2001), where it is possible and legitimate for the stakeholders to discuss longterm visions that encompass a diversity of technologies, and 2) use scenario techniques as tools for conceptualizing and prototyping this vision. The main question is: How can we create a long-term vision for the Danish energy system that is meaningful to multiple stakeholders? (au)

Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain:Informal Job Search Methods and Post-Displacement Outcomes

OpenAIRE

Green, Colin

2012-01-01

This paper examines the role of informal job search methods on the labour market outcomes of displaced workers. Informal job search methods could alleviate short-term labour market difficulties of displaced workers by providing information on job opportunities, allowing them to signal their productivity and may mitigate wage losses through better post-displacement job matching. However if displacement results from reductions in demand for specific sectors/skills, the use of informal job searc...

Short term economic emission power scheduling of hydrothermal energy systems using improved water cycle algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haroon, S.S.; Malik, T.N.

2017-01-01

Due to the increasing environmental concerns, the demand of clean and green energy and concern of atmospheric pollution is increasing. Hence, the power utilities are forced to limit their emissions within the prescribed limits. Therefore, the minimization of fuel cost as well as exhaust gas emissions is becoming an important and challenging task in the short-term scheduling of hydro-thermal energy systems. This paper proposes a novel algorithm known as WCA-ER (Water Cycle Algorithm with Evaporation Rate) to inspect the short term EEPSHES (Economic Emission Power Scheduling of Hydrothermal Energy Systems). WCA has its ancestries from the natural hydrologic cycle i.e. the raining process forms streams and these streams start flowing towards the rivers which finally flow towards the sea. The worth of WCA-ER has been tested on the standard economic emission power scheduling of hydrothermal energy test system consisting of four hydropower and three thermal plants. The problem has been investigated for the three case studies (i) ECS (Economic Cost Scheduling), (ii) ES (Economic Emission Scheduling) and (iii) ECES (Economic Cost and Emission Scheduling). The results obtained show that WCA-ER is superior to many other methods in the literature in bringing lower fuel cost and emissions. (author)

Short-Term Load Forecast in Electric Energy System in Bulgaria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Asenova

2010-01-01

Full Text Available As the accuracy of the electricity load forecast is crucial in providing better cost effective risk management plans, this paper proposes a Short Term Electricity Load Forecast (STLF model with high forecasting accuracy. Two kind of neural networks, Multilayer Perceptron network model and Radial Basis Function network model, are presented and compared using the mean absolute percentage error. The data used in the models are electricity load historical data. Even though the very good performance of the used model for the load data, weather parameters, especially the temperature, take important part for the energy predicting which is taken into account in this paper. A comparative evaluation between a traditional statistical method and artificial neural networks is presented.

Romanian public marketing in terms of necessity, collaboration and mix

OpenAIRE

Grigorescu, Adriana

2010-01-01

The paper carries out a short literature review on public sector and public marketing terms. The findings of the paper’s study shows that the Romanian public sector should give more importance to marketing activities, as 87% of the respondents sustained when asked about their necessity. Within a public institution, the marketing specialists should cooperate with research& development, sales and financial departments. The study results reaffirm the importance of the 4 P of the marketing mix wh...

Oil market outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Starling, Philip

1997-01-01

The role of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) ''OiMarket Report'' is described in terms of its response to and support for oil companies seeking to monitor short-term global oil market developments. The document is increasingly used for reference both by industry and governments. Data is compiled from oil companies, consultants, and government, and OECD countries provide supply/demand oil balance data by product grade on a monthly basic. (UK)

Evolution of gas markets and energy security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mitrova, Tatiana

2007-07-01

Questions of energy security and international gas trade became indissolubly connected during the last years. Paradoxically during the evolution of natural gas markets concerns about security issues in gas trade are only growing at the same time as transaction costs. Market participants have developed several mechanisms of adaptation (vertical integration, mutual penetration of capital and long-term contracts) which should be regarded not as a market failure but as an essential part of energy security guarantees at the moment. Further gas market evolution will demand more unified institutional framework to decrease threats to energy security and transaction costs. But this framework should be a result of mutual compromise of all market participants. (auth)

Nuclear power in open energy markets: A case study of Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erdogdu, Erkan

2007-01-01

For many decades, like many developed countries, Turkey has controlled her electricity sector as a state-owned monopoly. However, faced with rapid electricity demand growth, Turkey started to consider nuclear option. The present paper aims at evaluating both the present status of nuclear power in general and its implications for Turkish energy market in particular. After examining existing nuclear power technology and providing a brief overview of nuclear power economics; it focuses on the repercussions of nuclear power for Turkish energy market. The paper concludes that, in the short run, it may be considered to keep nuclear power within Turkish energy mix because it is an important carbon-free source of power that can potentially make a significant contribution to both Turkey's future electricity supply and efforts to strengthen Turkey's security of supply. However, in the long term, nuclear power should be retained in Turkey only if it has a lower cost than competing technologies

Analysis of long-term energy scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lemming, J.; Morthorst, P.E.

1998-09-01

When addressing the role of fusion energy in the 21. century, the evaluation of possible future structures in the electricity market and the energy sector as a whole, can be a useful tool. Because fusion energy still needs demonstration, commercialized fusion energy is not likely to be a reality within the next few decades. Therefore long-term scenarios are needed describing the energy markets, which fusion energy eventually will be part of. This report performs an analysis of two of the most detailed existing long-term scenarios describing possible futures of the energy system. The aim is to clarify the frames in which the future development of the global energy demand, as well as the structure of the energy system can be expected to develop towards the year 2100. (au) 19 refs.

Short-term indicators. Intensities as a proxy for savings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boonekamp, P.G.M.; Gerdes, J. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Faberi, S. [Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems ISIS, Rome (Italy)

2013-12-15

The ODYSSEE database on energy efficiency indicators (www.odyssee-indicators.org) has been set up to enable the monitoring and evaluation of realised energy efficiency improvements and related energy savings. The database covers the 27 EU countries as well as Norway and Croatia and data are available from 1990 on. This work contributes to the growing need for quantitative monitoring and evaluation of the impacts of energy policies and measures, both at the EU and national level, e.g. due to the Energy Services Directive and the proposed Energy Efficiency Directive. Because the underlying data become available only after some time, the savings figures are not always timely available. This is especially true for the ODEX efficiency indices per sector that rely on a number of indicators. Therefore, there is a need for so-called short-term indicators that become available shortly after the year has passed for which data are needed. The short term indicators do not replace the savings indicators but function as a proxy for the savings in the most recent year. This proxy value is faster available, but will be less accurate than the saving indicators themselves. The short term indicators have to be checked regularly with the ODEX indicators in order to see whether they can function still as a proxy.

Energy markets in the European Community - short-term outlook 1985-86

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peirce, T

1985-08-01

The Community's consumption of primary energy is expected to increase by 2.6% in 1985 and 2.9% in 1986. The four main reasons for this are the expected increases in the Community's GDP (2.3% for both years), 3-4% growth rates of industrial production, weaker energy prices (led by lower oil prices) and cold weather in the early part of 1985. The base case forecast also assumes some ECU reevaluation against the dollar which, if correct will accelerate the fall in real energy prices. Following the ending of the United Kingdom mining strike in early 1985, coal consumption could be 3% higher this year than in 1984, but oil consumption is forecast to fall by 2-3% in 1985 but perhaps increase very slightly in 1986. Gas and electricity consumption should increase in both years and at similar rates, but the most telling factor in the period will be the increase in nuclear power. In 1986 nuclear should provide nearly 15% of the Community's energy needs, as against only 4% in 1980. The Community's net energy import dependence is expected to fall to 42% in 1986, as compared to 44% last year.

Energy markets and European Integration: The World Energy Council role

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murray, J.

2002-01-01

Energy market reform brings many benefits. Central and East Europe's challenge is to establish such markets when, at list in the case of electricity, the established market economies are still wrestling with how to apply competitive principles to this market. Design challenges include the natural monopoly elements within the electricity supply chain and the fact that it is, in practical terms, as essential social service. There is no one single model suitable to all markets at all stages of development. At the same time, there is a need for sustainable energy pricing, which means prices should cover all costs, with transparent and time-limited subsidies bringing the afford ability gap. Cross-border integration extends the benefits available from market reform by overcoming constraints at the national level and by broadening the geographical limits of a market. The World Energy Council works with its Central and East European members to analyse, understand and meet these challenges. (author)

2009 reference case scenario : Canadian energy demand and supply to 2020 : an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

The National Energy Board regulates the construction and operation of interprovincial and international oil and gas pipelines and power lines as well as the tolls and tariffs for the pipelines under its jurisdictions. The import and export of natural gas is also regulated by the NEB. The NEB examined the possible energy futures that might unfold for Canadians up to the year 2020. The factors that affect the supply of crude oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, electricity and coal in the short term were examined to determine the outlook for deliverability through 2020. The growing demand for energy was reviewed along with the adequacy of future energy supplies, and related issues of emerging technologies, energy infrastructure and energy exports. This assessment provided separate production outlooks for hydrocarbons, electricity and coal and outlined the key uncertainties to the supply outlook. The likely impact of recent economic, energy and policy trends on energy demand and supply were considered. It was concluded that energy markets in Canada will continue to function well. Energy prices will provide appropriate market signals for the development of energy resources to meet Canadian and export demand. A significant portion of Canadian demand for energy will be met by fossil fuels. However, the demand to move towards greener energy fuels should result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions. 1 tab., 27 figs.

75 FR 38516 - Order on Intent To Revoke Market-Based Rate Authority

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-02

..., Electric Quarterly Reports, Strategic Energy Management Corp., Solaro Energy Marketing Corporation. 1... (including market-based power sales, cost-based power sales, and transmission service) and providing transaction information (including rates) for short-term and long-term power sales during the most recent...

Energy policy and the market economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruehle, H.; Miegel, M.

1980-01-01

The consistent supply of the people with cheap energy is one of the biggest challenges of our time. There is hardly any other sphere where the opinions on the correct means and ways are as different as in energy policy. While some people see only the market as a suitable instrument to solve the energy problems, others are of the opinion that the problems can only be solved by planning by the government, quantitative restrictions, and other directive measures. The answer to this question involves long-term results, not only for our future energy policy. Planned economy in the energy section and marketing in all other sections cannot be continued for ever. The clarification of this question is the goal of these lectures and discussions held on the experts' meeting 'energy policy in marketing'. (orig.) [de

Renewable energy and energy efficiency in liberalized European electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wohlgemuth, Norbert

2000-01-01

Given the projected growth in global energy demand, renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) play a crucial role in the attainment of the environmental dimension of sustainable development. Policy mechanisms to promote RE and EE have been justified on the rationale of market failure, which prevents price signals alone from being sufficient to induce consumers to implement the socially optimal level. The paper shows driving forces for increasing competition in the electricity supply industry and discusses the implication of electricity industry liberalisation on RE/EE activities. Policies of the European Commission to promote RE/EE are presented, including a more detailed description of the experience made in the United Kingdom. Conclusions are that the new market structure may be too short sighted to stimulate RE and EE activities and that the design of policies should be compatible with the new market-orientated structure of the electricity industry. If implemented properly, and compatible with the competitive market organisation, electricity supply liberalisation could pave the way for 'sustainable electricity' in the European Union. (Author)

Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, first quarter 1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-01-01

The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1998 through the fourth quarter of 1999. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the first quarter 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 24 figs., 19 tabs.

Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadren, M.

1998-01-01

The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It's filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter's. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach's and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author)

The challenges of energy markets in transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumas, D.

1999-01-01

The transition period includes the processes as follows: liberalization, deregulation, privatization and restructuring. Liberalization consists of multiple changes: 1. Ownership - from public to private; 2. Industry structure - from vertically integrated to unbundled; 3. Market competition - from monopoly to competitive; 4. Product-mix - from single to multi-products; 5. Market approach - from service to product (wholesale); 6. System management - from self-managed to decentralized; 7. Planning horizon - from long to short term and 8. Participants - from national to trans-national. The energy sector is to ensure a reliable, long-term supply of energy in sufficient quantities at affordable prices from processes that are compatible with prudent environmental standards. The evolutionary model of an energy utility foresees a transition from traditional utility (integrated monopoly utility) through local wholesale trading and partial competition (competition for large customers) to competition for all customers and to redefined utilities (bundling multi-product services). Substantial liberalization of electricity have taken place as follows: in 6 countries in Western Europe and 12 plan to do it; in 4 countries in Eastern Europe and 8 - plan to do it; in 2 countries in Asia and Australasia and 12 plan to do it; in 4 countries in South America and 3 plan to do it. There is no liberalization of electricity in Central and North America till now but 6 in Central and 3 in North America plan to do it in future. Substantial liberalization of downstream gas have taken place: only in one country in Western Europe but 6 plan to do it in future; also in one country in Asia and Australasia and 3 plan to do it; in one country in South America and 2 plan to do it and in two countries in North America and only one plan to do it in future. The goals of liberalization include: reducing the cost of energy; improving economic efficiency; attracting capitals and paying off government debt

A short-term scheduling for the optimal operation of biorefineries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grisi, E.F.; Yusta, J.M.; Khodr, H.M.

2011-01-01

This work presents an analysis of the inherent potentialities and characteristics of the sugarcane industries that produce sugar, bioethanol, biogas and bioelectricity and that are being described as ''Biorefineries''. These Biorefineries are capable of producing bio-energy under diverse forms, intended for their own internal consumption and for external sales and marketing. A complex model and simulation are carried out of the processes of a sugarcane industry, with the data characteristic as well as the production costs, prices of products and considerations on the energy demand by basic processes. A Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization problem formulation and an analysis of optimal solutions in short-term operation are described, taking into account the production cost functions of each commodity and the incomes obtained from selling electricity and other products. The objective is to maximize the hourly plant economic profit in the different scenarios considered in a real case study. (author)

Green Power Grids: How Energy from Renewable Sources Affects Networks and Markets.

Science.gov (United States)

Mureddu, Mario; Caldarelli, Guido; Chessa, Alessandro; Scala, Antonio; Damiano, Alfonso

2015-01-01

The increasing attention to environmental issues is forcing the implementation of novel energy models based on renewable sources. This is fundamentally changing the configuration of energy management and is introducing new problems that are only partly understood. In particular, renewable energies introduce fluctuations which cause an increased request for conventional energy sources to balance energy requests at short notice. In order to develop an effective usage of low-carbon sources, such fluctuations must be understood and tamed. In this paper we present a microscopic model for the description and for the forecast of short time fluctuations related to renewable sources in order to estimate their effects on the electricity market. To account for the inter-dependencies in the energy market and the physical power dispatch network, we use a statistical mechanics approach to sample stochastic perturbations in the power system and an agent based approach for the prediction of the market players' behavior. Our model is data-driven; it builds on one-day-ahead real market transactions in order to train agents' behaviour and allows us to deduce the market share of different energy sources. We benchmarked our approach on the Italian market, finding a good accordance with real data.

Green Power Grids: How Energy from Renewable Sources Affects Networks and Markets.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mario Mureddu

Full Text Available The increasing attention to environmental issues is forcing the implementation of novel energy models based on renewable sources. This is fundamentally changing the configuration of energy management and is introducing new problems that are only partly understood. In particular, renewable energies introduce fluctuations which cause an increased request for conventional energy sources to balance energy requests at short notice. In order to develop an effective usage of low-carbon sources, such fluctuations must be understood and tamed. In this paper we present a microscopic model for the description and for the forecast of short time fluctuations related to renewable sources in order to estimate their effects on the electricity market. To account for the inter-dependencies in the energy market and the physical power dispatch network, we use a statistical mechanics approach to sample stochastic perturbations in the power system and an agent based approach for the prediction of the market players' behavior. Our model is data-driven; it builds on one-day-ahead real market transactions in order to train agents' behaviour and allows us to deduce the market share of different energy sources. We benchmarked our approach on the Italian market, finding a good accordance with real data.

Predicting short-term stock fluctuations by using processing fluency

Science.gov (United States)

Alter, Adam L.; Oppenheimer, Daniel M.

2006-01-01

Three studies investigated the impact of the psychological principle of fluency (that people tend to prefer easily processed information) on short-term share price movements. In both a laboratory study and two analyses of naturalistic real-world stock market data, fluently named stocks robustly outperformed stocks with disfluent names in the short term. For example, in one study, an initial investment of $1,000 yielded a profit of $112 more after 1 day of trading for a basket of fluently named shares than for a basket of disfluently named shares. These results imply that simple, cognitive approaches to modeling human behavior sometimes outperform more typical, complex alternatives. PMID:16754871

A Comparison of the Long Term Interdependence of Southeast Asian Equity Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raisul Islam

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine the equity market crisis contagion in major Asian economic markets. A comparative assessment of Asian markets during the Asian Financial Crisis and Global Financial crisis may clearly identify the changing nature of long term integration of major Asian markets. The selection criteria of specific Asian markets of different peripheries depend particularly on the roles and structure of these markets. The impact of the global financial contagion and the lingering financial linkage in the aftermath of crisis will explain the reaction of the majority of Asian markets to global linkage. While majority of the studies focused on dynamic short term association in European and MENA contagions in the post global financial crisis period; after the global financial crisis, attention paid to long term Asian contagion adds new perspective to hitherto disorganized theories.

Gas Markets: Review of 2012 and medium term perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This series of slides present a review of the 2012 gas markets and of their medium term perspectives. A moderate gas activity is expected worldwide in the short-term (supply risks). The globalization process has been slowing down but a rebound in world gas and LNG demand is expected from the middle of this decade (+ 2.5%/year up to 2020). A new wave of projects and investments is required (40 Mt of new FIDs from non-US projects in the next two years, Market conditions will loosen after 2017). A more globalized and liquid gas market is much-needed by 2020. Oil indexing will be supported by Australian LNG projects and Asian prices will support high levels of European spot prices

Energy market reform and greenhouse gas emission reductions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1999-01-01

The report reviews micro-economic reform in the energy market and measures the impact that energy market reform is expected to have on greenhouse gas outcomes. It indicates that reform in the electricity and gas industries is delivering what was promised, an efficient market with lower energy prices and, over the longer term, will deliver a gradually reducing rate of greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy produced. It also recognises that energy market reform has removed some barriers to the entry of less greenhouse gas intense fuels. These trends will result in reduced greenhouse gas intensity in the supply of energy and significant reductions in the growth in greenhouse gas emissions compared to what may have been expected without the reforms

Term Structure Examination of Indonesian Money Market: Some Efficiency Issue

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anggoro Budi Nugroho

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper examines efficiency of Indonesian term structure as imposed by the country’s central bank. The rate, widely understood as the Bank Indonesia (BI Rate varying from 30-day, 60-day, and 180-day, usually stated as the plain-vanilla cost of capital of interbank debt financing depending on their time length. In general, this rate will consequently impact various other sorts of interest rates in the country’s debt market as a whole. When dealing with market efficiency, statistical inference shows that short-term BI Rate’s is not the best predictor of its long-term one due to some uncertain asymmetric information. This finding may lead to further adjustment in risk management strategy for hedging with interest rate. Keywords: term structure, risk premia, expectation hypothesis (EH, market efficiency, cointegration, volatility spillover, expansionary monetary policy

Calibration of short rate term structure models from bid-ask coupon bond prices

Science.gov (United States)

Gomes-Gonçalves, Erika; Gzyl, Henryk; Mayoral, Silvia

2018-02-01

In this work we use the method of maximum entropy in the mean to provide a model free, non-parametric methodology that uses only market data to provide the prices of the zero coupon bonds, and then, a term structure of the short rates. The data used consists of the prices of the bid-ask ranges of a few coupon bonds quoted in the market. The prices of the zero coupon bonds obtained in the first stage, are then used as input to solve a recursive set of equations to determine a binomial recombinant model of the short term structure of the interest rates.

Generation capacity adequacy in interdependent electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepeda, Mauricio; Finon, Dominique

2011-01-01

This paper deals with the practical problems related to long-term security of supply in regional electricity markets with transmission constraints. Differences between regulatory policies and market designs in terms of generation adequacy policies may distort the normal functioning of the neighboring markets, as well as the reliability of supply. We test the effect of heterogeneous regulatory design between two interdependent markets: energy-only market, price-capped market without capacity mechanisms and price-capped markets with forward capacity contracts obligation. We rely on a long-term market simulation model in system dynamics that characterizes expansion decision in a competitive regime. The results show that differences in market designs affect both price and reliability of supply in the two markets. We examine both the short and long terms effect, and how free-riding may occur where capacity adequacy policies are adopted in one market but not the other. The main finding is that the lack of harmonization between local markets in policies to ensure capacity adequacy may lead to undesirable side effects. - Research highlights: → We model the long-term dynamic of two interdependent markets. → We examine both the short and long terms effect of heterogeneous regulatory design: energy-only market, price-capped market without capacity mechanisms and price-capped markets with forward capacity contracts obligation. → Differences in market designs affect both price and reliability of supply in the two markets. → Lack of harmonization between local markets in policies to ensure capacity adequacy may lead to undesirable side effects. → Free-riding may occur where capacity adequacy policies are adopted in one market but not the other.

On market integration of renewable energies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schroeer, Sebastian

2014-12-05

destruction of a well performing system by policy makers for populist reasons. The change is therefore based on subsidies, and could be undone after a reduction of subsidies. On the other hand, one could argue that it is a structural and irreversible change - one driven by technology and accelerated by subsidies. Implicitly, the German government and the EU authorities hold the latter point of view. A fundamental conclusion would be that the integration of renewable energies into existing energy markets is the wrong concept. In fact, a market transformation, i.e. a creative destruction in the sense of Schumpeter (1942), is the best definition. Therefore, the question is how to deal with uncertainty in the face of rapid technological change, and moreover, with complex socio-political conditions. In such a situation, any advice for long-term, irreversible measures based on comparative static ceteris paribus analyses could prove risky. Hence, the development of a ''master plan'' for the implementation of the energy and climate policy targets seems inappropriate. As a result, short-term measures that are reversible and that ensure a quick reaction seem optimal. Consequently, in this trial-and-error approach, which chancellor Merkel once mentioned as ''run on sight'', there are no big plans - just targets.

On market integration of renewable energies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schroeer, Sebastian

2014-01-01

destruction of a well performing system by policy makers for populist reasons. The change is therefore based on subsidies, and could be undone after a reduction of subsidies. On the other hand, one could argue that it is a structural and irreversible change - one driven by technology and accelerated by subsidies. Implicitly, the German government and the EU authorities hold the latter point of view. A fundamental conclusion would be that the integration of renewable energies into existing energy markets is the wrong concept. In fact, a market transformation, i.e. a creative destruction in the sense of Schumpeter (1942), is the best definition. Therefore, the question is how to deal with uncertainty in the face of rapid technological change, and moreover, with complex socio-political conditions. In such a situation, any advice for long-term, irreversible measures based on comparative static ceteris paribus analyses could prove risky. Hence, the development of a ''master plan'' for the implementation of the energy and climate policy targets seems inappropriate. As a result, short-term measures that are reversible and that ensure a quick reaction seem optimal. Consequently, in this trial-and-error approach, which chancellor Merkel once mentioned as ''run on sight'', there are no big plans - just targets.

Defect production in simulated cascades: Cascade quenching and short-term annealing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinisch, H.L.

1983-01-01

Defect production in displacement cascades in copper has been modeled using the MARLOWE code to generate cascades and the stochastic annealing code ALSOME to simulate cascade quenching and short-term annealing of isolated cascades. Quenching is accomplished by using exaggerated values for defect mobilities and for critical reaction distances in ALSOME for a very short time. The quenched cascades are then short-term annealed with normal parameter values. The quenching parameter values were empirically determined by comparison with results of resistivity measurements. Throughout the collisional, quenching and short-term annealing phases of cascade development, the high energy cascades continue to behave as a collection of independent lower energy lobes. For recoils above about 30 keV the total number of defects and the numbers of free defects scale with the damage energy. As the energy decreases from 30 keV, defect production varies with the changing nature of the cascade configuration, resulting in more defects per unit damage energy. The simulated annealing of a low fluence of interacting cascades revealed an interstitial shielding effect on depleted zones during Stage I recovery. (orig.)

State of the art in the estimation of energy prices in the spot market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botero B, Sergio; Cano C, Jovan A

2007-01-01

Since the start energy markets deregulation in the world, several spot market (short term) price prediction methods have been developed? this article identifies and compares the main methods of prediction used in Colombia and other international markets. With this review it is possible to determine the state of the knowledge in the specific subject and then to look for the development of new forecasting techniques that can contribute to the solution of this problem. The prediction horizon is something that must be taken into account in the review of the several techniques, given that both the magnitude of the final model of estimation, and the time series treatment type, depend on this horizon.

Multivariate Analysis of Short and Long-Impact Indicators for Corporate Bond Market Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ieva Astrauskaitė

2016-06-01

Full Text Available An additional instrument or established access to the capital market funding would increase business opportunities for performance, development, growth, channeling financing for sustainable and long-term economic growth and job creation. Capital market and its level of development or further development opportunities are exposed to different factors. Clear identification of them mobilizes the attention of accurate and useful decisions or actions influencing the expected results, their adoption and implementation, monitoring. With the purpose to identify a set of factors influencing the capital market deve lopment as well as to introduce a model of their short term and long term impact projections, the ARDL model for the US and Lithuanian cases is introduced. The concluding remarks state on different legal and regulatory framework, banking sector and ICT measures exposures to the different stages of the corporate bond market development.

Panorama 2013 - Short term trends in the gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lecarpentier, Armelle

2012-10-01

The outlook for gas industry development in the short term is clouded by uncertainties (impact of the economic slowdown, competition between energies, price fluctuations, etc.). However, as in 2012, many favorable factors in terms of natural gas supply and demand point to sustained and sustainable growth of this energy. (author)

Hybrid Electricity Markets with Long-Term Risk-Sharing Arrangements: Adapting Market Design to Security of Supply and decarbonization Objectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ROQUES, Fabien; FINON, Dominique

2017-01-01

The re-emergence of policy interventionism in electricity markets raises questions as to how market design can best be adapted to meeting the investment challenge associated with security of supply (SoS) and decarbonization objectives. This paper takes an institutionalist approach in terms of modularity of the market design, and reviews the standard historical approach towards competitive markets, in order to analyse the roles and interactions of the initial and additional market 'modules'. We argue that a number of additional modules is required to achieve long-term policy objectives, such as decarbonization and security of supply (SoS). But, in turn, they destabilise the initial modules of the market design, in particular by the entries of renewables. We review the international experience with hybrid market design and draw a number of policy recommendations at to best practices, as well as suggesting ways in which the initial market modules can be improved to prevent inconsistencies with the new modules. The move towards a hybrid market regime, which relies on a combination of planning, long-term risk sharing arrangements and improved markets entrenched in a function of short-term coordination, appears to be unavoidable where decarbonization policies are adopted. (authors)

Audit of long-term and short-term liabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Korinko M.D.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The article determines the importance of long-term and short-term liabilities for the management of financial and material resources of an enterprise. It reviews the aim, objects and information generators for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations. The organizing and methodical providing of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities of an enterprise are generalized. The authors distinguish the stages of realization of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities, the aim of audit on each of the presented stages, and recommend methodical techniques. It is fixed that it is necessary to conduct the estimation of the systems of internal control and record-keeping of an enterprise by implementation of public accountant procedures for determination of volume and maintenance of selection realization. After estimating the indicated systems, a public accountant determines the methodology for realization of public accountant verification of long-term and short-term liabilities. The analytical procedures that public accountants are expedient to use for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations are determined. The authors suggest the classification of the educed defects on the results of the conducted public accountant verification of short-term and long-term obligations.

Technical challenges to energy systems' operation and markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen, P.; Meibom, P.; Gehrke, O. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark); Oestergaard, J. [Technical Univ. of Denmark (Denmark)

2006-11-15

A future energy system that includes a high proportion of renewable energy will be expected to meet the same requirements for security of supply and economic efficiency as the energy systems of today, while delivering better environmental performance, especially with regard to CO{sub 2} emissions. Security of supply refers to the long-term reliability of fuel supply; especially in power systems, it also covers short-term requirements for system stability and adequacy. Economic efficiency is concerned with getting the best from the significant amounts of money, human capital and natural resources involved in an energy system. Integral to economic efficiency in energy systems is the presence of well-functioning markets for energy services. The variability and reduced predictability of a number of renewable energy sources, notably wind power, create specific challenges for future energy systems compared to those of today. Power transmission will also become an issue, as the areas with good potential for wind power and wave energy are often located some distance from the centres of power consumption. This chapter describes the challenges involved, and possible solutions to these, with a focus on power systems. The chapter is divided into two sections reflecting the fact that some challenges relate to managing the power system in its normal operation mode, whereas others are specific to fault conditions. (au)

Energy to the masses : a blueprint for competition in Alberta's retail energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Topp, L.

2004-01-01

This paper presents a framework for competition in Alberta's retail energy market and its influence on Direct Energy Marketing Limited . The main factors for successful retail energy competition were identified as being a level playing field for all retailers; a stable and committed regulatory framework; customer education; brand trust and visibility; regulated pricing which reflects market conditions; customer service and billing; unrestricted customer choice; and, conformity between electricity and gas markets. Direct Energy is a wholly owned subsidiary of British-based Centrica plc, one of the top 30 companies in the United Kingdom in terms of market capitalization. It was created during Britain's regulatory reform of the energy industry and operates through 4 retail brand units. Centrica entered the North American market in 2000 when it acquired Direct Energy Marketing Limited which supplies energy and services to half of the households in Ontario. Direct Energy is expected to increase its customer base with the pending closure of ATCO Gas and ATCO Electric in Alberta, making it Canada's largest provider of retail energy services. In a competitive energy market, retailers can offer a wider range of products than energy alone. Cost-to services can be reduced by offering services such as heating, ventilation and air conditioning

Can Dutch co-generation survive threats of the liberalisation of the energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Battjes, J.J.; Rijkers, F.A.M.

2000-07-01

The paper presents an analysis of the effects of liberalisation of the Dutch energy markets on the future development of combined heat and power generation (co-generation) in the Netherlands. First, it reviews the historical growth in co-generation in the Netherlands and the supportive policy measures that have contributed to this growth. Second, the liberalisation process of the Dutch electricity market and the Dutch gas market is described. Subsequently, we discuss the impacts of these new market structures on co-generation by using two scenarios for the Dutch energy markets. Our assessment of the impacts is mainly focused on the cost-effectiveness of co-generation projects. We determine the key aspects that influence the cost-effectiveness of a co-generation project and analyse some of the calculations for different small-scale and large-scale co-generation projects. Based on the results, we conclude that investments in new co-generation plants are unlikely in the short term and the existing plants can barely produce with a positive cash flow. As many parties have an interest in reducing the negative effects of a liberalised energy market on co-generation, approaches are sought to improve the cost-effectiveness of co-generation in the Netherlands. We describe several optional supportive measures for co-generation mainly resulting from the determination of the barriers for co-generation. Moreover, Dutch authorities have already responded to these barriers by preparing policy measures such as investment subsidies and exemption from the energy tax. 2 refs

Wind energy. Market prospects to 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huckle, R.

2002-01-01

Renewable energy is becoming an increasingly significant source in the energy portfolio of most countries. Several sources of renewable energy are now being pursued commercially and wind energy is the most advanced in terms of installed electricity generation capacity. Of all types of renewable energy wind energy is the one with which there is the greatest experience - wind wheels and windmills have been used in various forms for hundreds of years. Chapter 1 is an introduction to the market study. Chapter 2 begins with a review of the wind energy industry. Topics included here are the case for wind energy (sustainability, security, non-polluting etc), market structure (the relationship between developers, operators, manufacturers, consortia etc) and environmental issues. This is followed by a discussion of the wind energy market for major countries in terms of installed wind power capacity. Within each country market there is an account of government policy, major wind energy programmes, major projects with information on developers and wind turbine manufacturers. A market analysis is given which includes an economic review, wind energy targets (where they exist) and forecasts to 2006. Chapter 3 is a review of wind turbine applications covering electricity generation for public supply networks, stand alone/community applications, water pumping and water desalination. Chapter 4 provides the basic principles of wind turbine operation and associated technologies. A brief account is given of the development of wind turbines and the main components such as the tower, rotor blades, gearbox, generator and electrical controls. Electricity generation and control are outlined and the challenge of electricity storage is also discussed. Meteorological factors (wind speed etc) and the move towards off-shore wind farms are also covered. Chapter 5 contains profiles of leading wind project developers and wind turbine manufacturers. A selection of existing and proposed wind farms

Solar energy enters the market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coehoorn, M.; Sinke, W.C.

1995-11-01

Everybody agrees that there is a bright future for solar energy. After two decades of research and development, the market introduction of solar hot water systems is now taking off. In several countries, including the Netherlands, preparations are also underway for the large-scale introduction of photovoltaic systems. Although the share of thermal and photovoltaic solar energy in the energy supply sector in the Netherlands is very small (0.1 PJ) there are signs of imminent change. According to the Follow-up Policy Document on Energy Conservation, the share of solar energy should increase to 7 PJ by the year 2010. After years of concentrating on research and development, it is now generally recognised that it is time to introduce these technologies onto the market in order to realize the long-term objectives. In this respect, thermal solar energy is ahead of photovoltaics. 4 ills

Energy subsidies in California's electricity market deregulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ritschel, Alexander; Smestad, G.P.

2003-01-01

Deregulation and re-regulation of California's electricity market not only failed in terms of anticipated cost reductions, improved customer service and higher competition, it also led to the introduction of various additional energy subsidies. This paper analyzes California's electricity market deregulation process from a subsidy viewpoint. Under deregulation in California, investor-owned utilities were not allowed to pass their energy procurement costs fully on to their customers, and therefore subsequently, and inevitably, ran into severe financial problems. Such retail price regulation is an energy subsidy that is both economically and environmentally unfavorable, because it veils true price signals to electricity consumers and, in this way, discourages energy conservation. Other policies implemented in California that represent perverse energy subsidies are the purchase of power by the state of California, the suspension of retail competition, and the potential misuse of money from the recovery of stranded costs. Many interventions implemented by the state to smooth out the impacts of the energy crisis insulated electricity consumers from market realities, supported the existing structure of California's electricity market, which is predominantly based on fossil fuels, and suppressed market incentives to improve energy conservation

Portfolio diversification in energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galvani, Valentina; Plourde, Andre

2010-01-01

This paper's results indicate that futures for crude oil, natural gas and unleaded gasoline fail to enhance the performance of representative energy stocks in terms of return to risk, but do decrease the overall level of risk exposure borne by passive equity investors. Our findings suggest that futures contracts on energy commodities are valuable to market participants with an interest in hedging against price fluctuations in energy markets by buy-and-hold strategies. However, this conclusion is reversed when one takes the perspective of traders whose core interests can be better approximated through the return to risk-bearing. In fact, this paper documents that return-to-risk maximizing agents are unlikely to profit from trading energy futures in addition to energy stocks. Moreover, futures for energy commodities fail to offer significant diversification gains with respect to energy stocks once investors adopt simple dynamic trading strategies that rely on readily available pricing information. (author)

Portfolio diversification in energy markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Galvani, Valentina; Plourde, Andre [Department of Economics at the University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

2010-03-15

This paper's results indicate that futures for crude oil, natural gas and unleaded gasoline fail to enhance the performance of representative energy stocks in terms of return to risk, but do decrease the overall level of risk exposure borne by passive equity investors. Our findings suggest that futures contracts on energy commodities are valuable to market participants with an interest in hedging against price fluctuations in energy markets by buy-and-hold strategies. However, this conclusion is reversed when one takes the perspective of traders whose core interests can be better approximated through the return to risk-bearing. In fact, this paper documents that return-to-risk maximizing agents are unlikely to profit from trading energy futures in addition to energy stocks. Moreover, futures for energy commodities fail to offer significant diversification gains with respect to energy stocks once investors adopt simple dynamic trading strategies that rely on readily available pricing information. (author)

Analysis of long-term guarantee of supply in power markets: Application of the marginal theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parrilla, Ernesto; Vazquez, Carlos

2005-06-01

In this paper the marginal theory is applied to discuss the different long-term equilibria that could be reached in an electricity market depending on the market participants' (generators, consumers and the regulator) goals and constraints. The aim is to identify the key elements of a possible market failure in providing generation adequacy - immature demand, regulated tariffs, long-term contracting, different agents perception of the market risks, etc - and to study their influence in the long-term market equilibrium. Furthermore, we analyze several of the different capacity mechanisms that could be used to ensure generation adequacy, such as: short-term capacity payments, long-term capacity payments and capacity markets. This final analysis includes an estimation of how useful each method is to compensate the market failures that we have previously identified

The European market of renewable energies; Le marche europeen des energies renouvelables

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anon.

2011-09-15

This market study on renewable energies presents: 1 - the different renewable energy industries for power generation: the field of renewable energies (hydropower, wind power, solar energy, geothermal energy and biomass power plants) and their common points, their characteristics, advantages and constraints; 2 - the political and regulatory context with its ambitious goals: main steps of worldwide negotiations, Europe and the management of CO{sub 2} emissions, stiffening of the environmental regulation, the energy/climate package and the efforts to be borne by the different member states; 3 - Economy of the sector and the necessary public support: investment and production costs by industry, wholesale prices and competitiveness of the different power generation means, government's incentives for projects profitability; 4 - dynamics of the European market of renewable energies: energy-mix and evolution of the renewable energies contribution in the world and in the European Union, key-figures by country and by industry (installed capacity, production, turnover, employment); 5 - medium-term development perspectives: 2020 prospect scenarios, evolution of the energy mix, perspectives of development for each industry; 6 - the strengths in presence in the domain of facilities: main manufacturers, market shares, innovations, vertical integration, external growth; 7 - the strengths in presence in the domain of power facilities operation: main European operators, position and ranking, installed capacities, projects portfolio; 8 - medium-term perspectives of reconfiguration: best-positioned operators in a developing market, future of European manufacturers with respect to Asian ones, inevitable concentration in the operation sector. (J.S.)

Wind power generation and dispatch in competitive power markets

Science.gov (United States)

Abreu, Lisias

Wind energy is currently the fastest growing type of renewable energy. The main motivation is led by more strict emission constraints and higher fuel prices. In addition, recent developments in wind turbine technology and financial incentives have made wind energy technically and economically viable almost anywhere. In restructured power systems, reliable and economical operation of power systems are the two main objectives for the ISO. The ability to control the output of wind turbines is limited and the capacity of a wind farm changes according to wind speeds. Since this type of generation has no production costs, all production is taken by the system. Although, insufficient operational planning of power systems considering wind generation could result in higher system operation costs and off-peak transmission congestions. In addition, a GENCO can participate in short-term power markets in restructured power systems. The goal of a GENCO is to sell energy in such a way that would maximize its profitability. However, due to market price fluctuations and wind forecasting errors, it is essential for the wind GENCO to keep its financial risk at an acceptable level when constituting market bidding strategies. This dissertation discusses assumptions, functions, and methodologies that optimize short-term operations of power systems considering wind energy, and that optimize bidding strategies for wind producers in short-term markets. This dissertation also discusses uncertainties associated with electricity market environment and wind power forecasting that can expose market participants to a significant risk level when managing the tradeoff between profitability and risk.

Renewable energy market overview 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahoney, Nicholas

2001-01-01

The article discusses the findings of a recent survey on the renewable energy market carried out in 164 countries and across a wide range of sectors of industry. The survey found almost unanimous optimism regarding the growth of the renewable energy market over the coming year. Tables show (i) the survey sample (in terms of continents, database population and responses); (ii) subsidiaries and locations of parent companies; (iii) expectations of sales next year (by continent) and (iv) expectations of sales in the coming year by sector. Figures show (a) regional distribution of companies (by continent); (b) companies' activities and (c) index of expectations of sales, by continent. The survey is intended for inclusion in the World Directory of Renewable Energy Suppliers and Services

Renewable energy market overview 2000

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahoney, Nicholas

2001-02-01

The article discusses the findings of a recent survey on the renewable energy market carried out in 164 countries and across a wide range of sectors of industry. The survey found almost unanimous optimism regarding the growth of the renewable energy market over the coming year. Tables show (i) the survey sample (in terms of continents, database population and responses); (ii) subsidiaries and locations of parent companies; (iii) expectations of sales next year (by continent) and (iv) expectations of sales in the coming year by sector. Figures show (a) regional distribution of companies (by continent); (b) companies' activities and (c) index of expectations of sales, by continent. The survey is intended for inclusion in the World Directory of Renewable Energy Suppliers and Services.

Optimised performance of a plug-in electric vehicle aggregator in energy and reserve markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shafie-khah, M.; Moghaddam, M.P.; Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K.; Catalão, J.P.S.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A new model is developed to optimise the performance of a PEV aggregator in the power market. • PEVs aggregator can combine the PEVs and manage the charge/discharge of their batteries. • A new approach to calculate the satisfaction/motivation of PEV owners is proposed. • Several uncertainties are taken into account using a two-stage stochastic programing approach. • The proposed model is proficient in significantly improving the short- and long-term behaviour. - Abstract: In this paper, a new model is developed to optimise the performance of a plug-in Electric Vehicle (EV) aggregator in electricity markets, considering both short- and long-term horizons. EV aggregator as a new player of the power market can aggregate the EVs and manage the charge/discharge of their batteries. The aggregator maximises the profit and optimises EV owners’ revenue by applying changes in tariffs to compete with other market players for retaining current customers and acquiring new owners. On this basis, a new approach to calculate the satisfaction/motivation of EV owners and their market participation is proposed in this paper. Moreover, the behaviour of owners to select their supplying company is considered. The aggregator optimises the self-scheduling programme and submits the best bidding/offering strategies to the day-ahead and real-time markets. To achieve this purpose, the day-ahead and real-time energy and reserve markets are modelled as oligopoly markets, in contrast with previous works that utilised perfectly competitive ones. Furthermore, several uncertainties and constraints are taken into account using a two-stage stochastic programing approach, which have not been addressed in previous works. The numerical studies show the effectiveness of the proposed model

Energy at what price? Energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Favennec, J.P.; Amic, E.; Darmois, G.

2006-01-01

In 2005, the whole world had to stand a real energy shock due to the rise of oil, gas and electricity prices. The perspective of a possible shortage, even at the prospect of several decades, has led to a deep change of the world energy market. In this context, this book supplies a clear and didactical presentation of the mechanisms of petroleum, gas and electricity markets, with their advantages and limitations. At the time of a globalization of economy, the book analyzes the consequences of markets deregulation on the energy prices and tries to answer several main questions: why such a price volatility? Who will take the risk of investing now? Will the energy actors of the present day concentration be in a dominating position? Content: 1 - energy, markets and energy markets; 2 - crude oil and petroleum product markets; 3 - gas markets; 4 - electric power markets; 5 - perspectives. Glossary. Index. (J.S.)

Battery energy storage market feasibility study -- Expanded report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kraft, S. [Frost and Sullivan, Mountain View, CA (United States); Akhil, A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Energy Storage Systems Analysis and Development Dept.

1997-09-01

Under the sponsorship of the US Department of Energy`s Office of Utility Technologies, the Energy Storage Systems Analysis and Development Department at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) contracted Frost and Sullivan to conduct a market feasibility study of energy storage systems. The study was designed specifically to quantify the battery energy storage market for utility applications. This study was based on the SNL Opportunities Analysis performed earlier. Many of the groups surveyed, which included electricity providers, battery energy storage vendors, regulators, consultants, and technology advocates, viewed battery storage as an important technology to enable increased use of renewable energy and as a means to solve power quality and asset utilization issues. There are two versions of the document available, an expanded version (approximately 200 pages, SAND97-1275/2) and a short version (approximately 25 pages, SAND97-1275/1).

Battery energy storage market feasibility study - Expanded report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kraft, S.; Akhil, A.

1997-09-01

Under the sponsorship of the US Department of Energy's Office of Utility Technologies, the Energy Storage Systems Analysis and Development Department at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) contracted Frost and Sullivan to conduct a market feasibility study of energy storage systems. The study was designed specifically to quantify the battery energy storage market for utility applications. This study was based on the SNL Opportunities Analysis performed earlier. Many of the groups surveyed, which included electricity providers, battery energy storage vendors, regulators, consultants, and technology advocates, viewed battery storage as an important technology to enable increased use of renewable energy and as a means to solve power quality and asset utilization issues. There are two versions of the document available, an expanded version (approximately 200 pages, SAND97-1275/2) and a short version (approximately 25 pages, SAND97-1275/1)

Sustainable Energy Consumption in Northeast Asia: A Case from China’s Fuel Oil Futures Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chi Zhang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The sustainable energy consumption in northeast Asia has a huge impact on regional stability and economic growth, which gives price volatility research in the energy market both theoretical value and practical application. We select China’s fuel oil futures market as a research subject and use recurrence interval analysis to investigate the price volatility pattern in different thresholds. We utilize the stretched exponential function to fit the pattern of the recurrence intervals of price fluctuations and find that the probability density functions of the recurrence intervals in different thresholds do not show the scaling behavior. Then the conditional probability density function and detrended fluctuation analysis prove that there is short-term and long-term correlation. Last, we use a hazard function to introduce the recurrence intervals into the (value at risk VaR calculation and establish a functional relationship between the mean recurrence interval and the threshold. Following this result, we also shed light on policy discussion for hedgers and government.

The current situation and mid-term prospects for European electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helm, Dieter

2013-01-01

This analysis of the current situation and mid-term prospects for European electricity markets presents: the objectives of energy policy, the historical legacy, the attempts at European integration and the Internal Energy Market (IEM), the coming of the Climate Change Package, the impact of the world economic and Euro-zone crises, the impact of shale gas and the new world of fossil fuel abundance, the impact of renewables on emissions, the impact of renewables on electricity markets, the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) and the renewables and the electricity markets, the coming of capacity crunch in some cases, the capacity markets, the return of central buyers and national energy policies, and what is to be done for the world electricity markets

Selling power : marketing energy under deregulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drummond, J.; Hanna, F.

2001-07-01

This book discussed the marketing of energy in a deregulated environment. Experience from long distance telephone service providers has shown that historical dominance is not a guarantee for future success. As new brands are introduced and as consumer choice increases, so does the ability to change from one provider to another. Price is only one of the factors prompting that change. Old rules and practices do not bind new competitors who must face the challenge of open competition and must be aware of the ever-changing face of business. It was recommended that the strategic solution would be to build a brand and to develop significant market shares and create effective customer retention programs. This book focused on the elements that energy marketing professionals must use to maintain and increase share without product differentiation. It also explained how energy providers can effectively attract and retain customers over the long term while keeping marketing and service delivery costs down. It was suggested that small players can compete with the growing strength of regional providers by creating new alliances between larger energy conglomerates. The chapters of the book were entitled: (1) Introduction, (2) The Goals of Deregulation, (3) Strategic Marketing Choices, (4) Relationship Marketing, (5) The Role of Customer Service, (6) The Question of Outsourcing, and (7) Final Thoughts and Observations. 24 refs., 3 figs.

Selling power : marketing energy under deregulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drummond, J.; Hanna, F.

2001-01-01

This book discussed the marketing of energy in a deregulated environment. Experience from long distance telephone service providers has shown that historical dominance is not a guarantee for future success. As new brands are introduced and as consumer choice increases, so does the ability to change from one provider to another. Price is only one of the factors prompting that change. Old rules and practices do not bind new competitors who must face the challenge of open competition and must be aware of the ever-changing face of business. It was recommended that the strategic solution would be to build a brand and to develop significant market shares and create effective customer retention programs. This book focused on the elements that energy marketing professionals must use to maintain and increase share without product differentiation. It also explained how energy providers can effectively attract and retain customers over the long term while keeping marketing and service delivery costs down. It was suggested that small players can compete with the growing strength of regional providers by creating new alliances between larger energy conglomerates. The chapters of the book were entitled: (1) Introduction, (2) The Goals of Deregulation, (3) Strategic Marketing Choices, (4) Relationship Marketing, (5) The Role of Customer Service, (6) The Question of Outsourcing, and (7) Final Thoughts and Observations. 24 refs., 3 figs

Green certificate markets, the risk of over-investment, and the role of long-term contracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kildegaard, Arne

2008-01-01

Several papers have recently analyzed the theory and implementation of renewable energy support schemes. The case for a renewable electricity standard (RES) in tandem with a tradeable green certificate (TGC) market has been largely based on efficiency considerations. Case study evidence is inconclusive, in part due to the short track record, but is not generally favorable. Here we reconsider the efficiency case, both static and dynamic, in light of special characteristics of renewable energy projects. We find that when exclusively high fixed-cost technologies comprise the eligible technology pool, the equilibrium form of contracting obviates the principal efficiency advantages claimed for certificate markets. When low fixed-cost technologies compete alongside high fixed-cost technologies in the certificate market, we show that it is likely that long-term contracts will disappear, and the technological choice will be inefficiently shifted away from the high fixed-cost technology. We consider evidence from three well-developed certificate schemes - in Britain, Sweden, and Texas - and find that it is broadly consistent with the theory here. (author)

Developing markets for renewable energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charters, W.W.S.

2001-01-01

Although renewable energy resources are now being utilised more on a global scale than ever before, there is no doubt their contribution to the energy economy can still be greatly increased. Recently international support for developing these relatively new sources of energy has been driven by their benefits as assessed by reduced environmental impact, particularly reduced greenhouse gas emissions. After several decades of continuous but somewhat erratic funding for research and development of renewables, it is time to take stock of the key issues to be addressed in terms of implementation of major renewable energy programmes on a large scale worldwide. One of the first steps in this process is the identification and encouragement of reliable continuous markets both in developed and developing nations. Future energy policy and planning scenarios should take into account the factors necessary to integrate renewables in all their diverse forms into the normal energy economy of the country. Other critical factors in market development will include the mass production of high quality, reliable and reasonable cost technical products and the provision of adequate finance for demonstrating market ready and near market renewables equipment. Government agencies need to aid in the removal of legislative and institutional barriers hindering the widespread introduction of non-conventional energy sources and to encourage the implementation of government purchasing schemes. Recent moves by companies in Australia to market 'green energy' to customers should also aid in the public awareness of the ultimate potential of renewables leading to greater use in the industrial, commercial and domestic sectors. (author)

RECAP, Replacement Energy Cost for Short-Term Reactor Plant Shut-Down

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

VanKuiken, J.C.; Daun, C.J.; Jusko, M.J.

1995-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: RECAP (Replacement Energy Cost Analysis Package) determines the replacement energy costs associated with short-term shutdowns or de-ratings of one or more nuclear reactors. Replacement energy cost refers to the change in generating-system production cost that results from shutting down a reactor. The cost calculations are based on the seasonal, unit-specific cost estimates for 1988-1991 for all 117 nuclear electricity-generating units in the U.S. RECAP is menu-driven, allowing the user to define specific case studies in terms of parameters such as the units to be included, the length and timing of the shutdown or de-rating period, the unit capacity factors, and the reference year for reporting cost results. In addition to simultaneous shutdown cases, more complicated situations, such as overlapping shutdown periods or shutdowns that occur in different years, can be examined through use of a present-worth calculation option. 2 - Method of solution: The user selects a set of units for analysis, defines a shutdown (or de-rating) period, and specifies any planned maintenance outages, delays in unit start-ups, or changes in default capacity factors. The program then determines which seasonal cost numbers to apply, estimates total and daily costs, and makes the appropriate adjustments for multiple outages if they are encountered. The change in production cost is determined from the difference between the total variable costs (variable fuel cost, variable operation and maintenance cost, and purchased energy cost) when the reactor is available for generation and when it is not. Changes in reference-year dollars are based on gross national product (GNP) price deflators or on optional use inputs. Once RECAP has completed the initial cost estimates for a case study (or series of case studies), present-worth analysis can be conducted using different reference-year dollars and discount rates, as specified by the user. The program uses

Market survey Slovak Republic. Bio-energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The study presents an overview of Slovakian bioenergy market, its current state and future prospects in terms of size and potentials. In the opening, the basic structure of Slovakian energy sources is presented from IEA energy statistics, then a list of programmes and valid legislation relating to RES follow. Figures from several sources show possible potential accomplishable in biomass utilisation in Slovakia. Some most promising areas containing interesting amounts of unutilised biomass are quoted. Chapter 4 contains overview of programmes supporting the use of RES, examples of already realised projects and some planned projects. In Chapter 5 there is a list of main stakeholders in the bioenergy sector, description of legal requirements and procedures necessary for starting a business in Slovakia and some ways how to promote bioenergy business in Slovakia. As the most promising opportunities identified in Slovakia we can consider projects of biomass utilisation in the form of installation of boilers and creation of distribution channels enabling steady supply of biomass for competitive prices. A lot of waste and other residues from woodworking industries or forestry is available for this purpose. Dutch companies should make maximum use of their technological know-how and try to offer equipment for biomass utilisation. Biogas is produced only on a very limited scale. The reason for that lies in relatively high initial costs that cannot be covered from farming companies and low rentability of realised projects. Still, projects solving disposal of agricultural waste on the one hand and energy production on the other are worth paying attention to. Success stories from the Netherlands could serve as a source of inspiration but doing of thoroughgoing analysis preceding investment itself is of necessity in order to cope with hidden risks and uncertainties. In any case, Dutch companies can offer technological equipment to Slovakian buyers without risks connected with

Energy Choices. Energy markets; Vaegval Energi. Energimarknader

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Damsgaard, Niclas (Econ Poeyry AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

2008-12-15

Each of the major energy markets for oil, coal, natural gas, biofuels and electricity has its own character. But markets are dependent on each other in an often complicated way. This interconnection has become even more complex since the market for emissions trading began in Europe in 2005. This report describes the current situation of the different energy markets but also the relationships between them, and some possible future scenarios. The oil market is global, but is dominated by a few producing countries. Coal is traded on the international market with good competition and over time probably a stable price. Other markets are more regional or even local. One example is the natural gas market. In the current situation of natural gas is not particularly important for Sweden's energy supply, but very much so in a European perspective. There may be repercussions also in Sweden. The gas price ups and downs are important for the price of emission rights and electricity. Biofuel markets ranging from global markets, such as ethanol, to regional or local markets, depending on processing. Only with the creation of a single trading venue, Nordpool was a common pricing of electricity possible in the Nordic region. In the near future we will have a common electricity market covering at least the Nordic region and northwestern Europe. This does not mean that prices will become equalized, for that further expansion of the transmission capacity is needed. It is possible to imagine several scenarios for future energy markets, but the interaction between the different markets will persist. To develop appropriate instruments is of great importance to achieve the political objectives in the energy field the next decade

Energy market integration in South America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hammons, T.J.; Franco, N. de; Sbertoli, L.V.; Khelil, C.; Rudnick, H.; Clerici, A.; Longhi, A.

1997-01-01

This article is a summary of presentations made during the 1997 Winter Meeting panel session on Power and Natural Gas in Latin America: Towards an Integrated Market. Reregulation and demand for energy resources to support economic growth are driving international natural gas and electricity exchange initiatives. Panelists focused on the gas and electric power industry in Latin America in terms of the: transport of gas or transmission of electricity; energy market integration in the southern cone of South America; and issues on gas use for electricity generation in South America countries. Countries such as Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru will export natural gas to Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Chile, an the energy matrices of these countries will change

Short-term overeating results in incomplete energy intake compensation regardless of energy density or macronutrient composition.

Science.gov (United States)

Apolzan, John W; Bray, George A; Hamilton, Marc T; Zderic, Theodore W; Han, Hongmei; Champagne, Catherine M; Shepard, Desti; Martin, Corby K

2014-01-01

To evaluate the effects of overeating (140% of energy requirements) a high-fat low-energy density diet (HF/LED, 1.05 kcal/g), high-fat high-energy density diet (HF/HED, 1.60 kcal/g), and high-carbohydrate (HC) LED (1.05 kcal/g) for 2-days on subsequent 4-day energy intake (EI), activity levels, appetite, and mood. Using a randomized cross-over design, energy expenditure and EI were standardized during overeating. In 20 adults with a mean ± SD BMI of 30.7 ± 4.6 kg/m(2) , EI was not suppressed until the second day after overeating and accounted for ∼30% of the excess EI. Reductions in EI did not differ among the three diets or across days. Overeating had no effect on subsequent energy expenditure but steps/day decreased after the HC/LED and HF/HED. Sleep time was increased after the HF/HED compared to both LEDs. After overeating a HF/HED vs. HF/LED, carbohydrate cravings, hunger, prospective food consumption, and sadness increased and satisfaction, relaxation, and tranquility decreased. Diet type, time, or their interaction had no impact on compensation over 4 days. No adaptive thermogenesis was observed. The HF/HED vs. HF/LED had detrimental effects on food cravings, appetite, and mood. These results suggest short-term overeating is associated with incomplete compensation. Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.

Reinsurance by short-term reinsurers in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernhout, C. L. R.

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The short-term reinsurance process usually involves three parties, namely the insurer, the reinsurer and the original policyholder, as the insurer cedes a part of the covered risk of the policyholder to the reinsurer. This research however addresses the perceptions of reinsurers regarding their reinsurance activities, where the reinsurer sells reinsurance to other insurance entities (viz. insurers and reinsurers, as well as buys reinsurance from other insurance entities. The crux of short-term reinsurance is therefore mutually loss sharing between the various insurance entities. The objective of this research focuses on the improvement of financial decision-making regarding the reinsurance operations of the reinsurers. To achieve this objective a literature study was undertaken to provide adequate background to compile a questionnaire for the empirical survey. The primary study embodies the perceptions of the South African short-term reinsurers regarding the following aspects: the various reasons why reinsurance occurs; the contracts / methods of reinsurance; the bases / forms of reinsurance; and the factors which determine the retention levels of a reinsurer. South Africa is classified as a developing economy, is a member of the BRICS countries and has an emerging market economy. The empirical results should therefore also be valuable to other countries which are classified similarly

Electricity marketing and retailing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandre, L.

2001-01-01

PremStar Metering Inc. is a division of PremStar Energy Canada. In addition to providing full-service meter and data services PremStar Metering provides collection, validation, analysis and billing services, working closely with the Ontario Energy Board, independent market operator (IMO) and Measurements Canada. This presentation addressed the market power mitigation agreement (MPMA) as well as issues dealing with wholesale competition seen mostly in the power generation sector. It was noted that the goal of the MPMA is to promote competition in the marketplace. Issues regarding the short term revenue limitation and the long term generation limitation of the MPMA were also discussed. figs

Structuring spot, short and long term gas contracts; CD-ROM ed.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gretener, N.M.

1996-05-01

A review of the core clauses of the modern natural gas purchase and sales contracts, was presented. There exists a wide variety of terms which can be used by a seller and a buyer to customize such a contract to suit particular circumstances. On the basis of length of term, gas contracts may classified as spot contracts having a term of 30 days or less, short term contracts having a term of 30 days to one to two years, and long term contracts having terms greater than two years. The three key elements which are applicable to all gas sales contracts are the contract price, the seller`s obligation to deliver, and the buyer`s obligation to accept. Other provisions that may be included in any gas sales contract in addition to the basic three were reviewed, including market pricing, load factor incentive pricing, seasonal pricing, pipeline demand charges, market shares, and the seller`s right to decontract.

The Money Market Liaison Group Sterling Money Market Survey

OpenAIRE

Westwood, Ben

2011-01-01

The Bank of England recently initiated a new survey of the sterling money market on behalf of the Money Market Liaison Group. This market — where short-term wholesale borrowing and lending in sterling takes place — plays a central role in the Bank’s pursuit of its monetary and financial stability objectives. Participants include banks, other financial institutions and non-financial companies, who use the market to manage their liquidity, by investing over short periods and raising short-term ...

Price-signals and long term equilibrium. Reconsidering the organisation of electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, Dominique; Defeuilley, Christophe; Marty, Frederic

2009-11-01

The purpose of this article is to show that the reform of the electricity sector, based on a framework of interpretation in which the short-term/long-term articulation is made by the market price, does not result in an efficient result in terms of investment. After a presentation of a bibliographical review on investment in an uncertain context, the authors present a model of decentralised electricity markets which backs reforms. They highlight issues related to production investment which remain unresolved, and which may result in socially inefficient choices on the long term. They report an analysis of two solutions of industrial organisations, long term contracts and vertical and horizontal integration, which could solve these problems

Energy Efficiency, Building Productivity and the Commercial Buildings Market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, D.W.

2002-05-16

The energy-efficiency gap literature suggests that building buyers are often short-sighted in their failure to apply life-cycle costing principles to energy efficient building technologies, with the result that under investment in these advanced technology occurs. This study examines the reasons this behavior may occur, by analyzing the pressures that market forces place on purchasers of buildings. Our basic conclusion is that the fundamental manner in which the buildings sector does business creates pressures to reduce initial capital outlays and to hedge against a variety of risks, including the ability of building owners to capture benefits from energy efficiency. Starting from the position that building buyers' willingness to pay drives choices over building attributes, we examine basic market principles, the structure of the buildings market, including the role of lenders, and policies that promote penetration of energy efficient technologies. We conclude that greater attention to buyers, and to the incentives and constraints they face, would promote a better understanding of building investment choices and contribute to better policies to promote the penetration of these technologies into markets.

Long- and Short-Term Cryptocurrency Volatility Components: A GARCH-MIDAS Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Conrad

2018-05-01

Full Text Available We use the GARCH-MIDAS model to extract the long- and short-term volatility components of cryptocurrencies. As potential drivers of Bitcoin volatility, we consider measures of volatility and risk in the US stock market as well as a measure of global economic activity. We find that S&P 500 realized volatility has a negative and highly significant effect on long-term Bitcoin volatility. The finding is atypical for volatility co-movements across financial markets. Moreover, we find that the S&P 500 volatility risk premium has a significantly positive effect on long-term Bitcoin volatility. Finally, we find a strong positive association between the Baltic dry index and long-term Bitcoin volatility. This result shows that Bitcoin volatility is closely linked to global economic activity. Overall, our findings can be used to construct improved forecasts of long-term Bitcoin volatility.

Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Federico Divina

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The ability to predict short-term electric energy demand would provide several benefits, both at the economic and environmental level. For example, it would allow for an efficient use of resources in order to face the actual demand, reducing the costs associated to the production as well as the emission of CO 2 . To this aim, in this paper we propose a strategy based on ensemble learning in order to tackle the short-term load forecasting problem. In particular, our approach is based on a stacking ensemble learning scheme, where the predictions produced by three base learning methods are used by a top level method in order to produce final predictions. We tested the proposed scheme on a dataset reporting the energy consumption in Spain over more than nine years. The obtained experimental results show that an approach for short-term electricity consumption forecasting based on ensemble learning can help in combining predictions produced by weaker learning methods in order to obtain superior results. In particular, the system produces a lower error with respect to the existing state-of-the art techniques used on the same dataset. More importantly, this case study has shown that using an ensemble scheme can achieve very accurate predictions, and thus that it is a suitable approach for addressing the short-term load forecasting problem.

Modelling the short term interest with stochastic differential equation in continuous time: linear versus non-linear mode

OpenAIRE

2014-01-01

M.Com. (Financial Economics) Recently, there has been a growth in the bond market. This growth has brought with it an ever-increasing volume and range of interest rate depended derivative products known as interest rate derivatives. Amongst the variables used in pricing these derivative products is the short-term interest rate. A numbers of short-term interest rate models that are used to fit the short-term interest rate exist. Therefore, understanding the features characterised by various...

Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations

KAUST Repository

Zhu, Xinxin

2012-04-01

The emphasis on renewable energy and concerns about the environment have led to large-scale wind energy penetration worldwide. However, there are also significant challenges associated with the use of wind energy due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High-quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This article begins with an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends. It then reviews some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series approaches and more advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular, the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented. © 2012 The Authors. International Statistical Review © 2012 International Statistical Institute.

The market premium of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act 2012. Does it really contribute to both market and system integration of renewables?; Die Marktpraemie im EEG 2012. Ein sinnvoller Beitrag zur Markt- und Systemintegration erneuerbarer Energien?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gawel, Erik [Helmholtz-Zentrum fuer Umweltforschung, Leipzig (Germany). Dept. Oekonomie; Univ. Leipzig (Germany). Inst. fuer Infrastruktur und Ressourcenmanagement; Purkus, Alexandra [Helmholtz-Zentrum fuer Umweltforschung (Germany). Dept. Bioenergie

2013-03-15

With the share of renewable energies within the electricity sector rising, improving their market integration (i.e. inclusion in the steering and remuneration processes of the electricity market) and system integration (i.e. enhanced responsibility for grid stability) is of increasing importance. To transform the energy system efficiently while ensuring security of supply, it is necessary to increase the alignment of renewable electricity production with short- and long-term market signals. The German Renewable Energy Sources Act 2012 introduced the market premium to provide market experience to renewable plant operators and incentives for demand-oriented electricity production. Shortly after its introduction, the instrument is already being criticised as ineffective and expensive. Building on early experiences, this article examines whether the market premium in its current design improves market and/or system integration, and if it seems suitable in principle to contribute to these aims (effectiveness). Also, potential efficiency gains and additional costs of ''administering integration'' are discussed (efficiency). While market integration in a strict sense (i.e. exposing renewables to price risks) is not the purpose of the market premium, it has successfully increased participation in direct marketing. However, windfall profits are high, and the benefits of gradually leading plant operators towards the market are questionable. Incentives for demand-oriented electricity production are established, but they prove insufficient particularly in the case of intermittent renewable energy sources. A continuation of the instrument in its current form therefore does not seem recommendable. To conclude, potential alternative solutions are presented.

Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

Economics of solar energy: Short term costing

Science.gov (United States)

Klee, H.

The solar economics based on life cycle costs are refuted as both imaginary and irrelevant. It is argued that predicting rates of inflation and fuel escalation, expected life, maintenance costs, and legislation over the next ten to twenty years is pure guesswork. Furthermore, given the high mobility level of the U.S. population, the average consumer is skeptical of long run arguments which will pay returns only to the next owners. In the short term cost analysis, the house is sold prior to the end of the expected life of the system. The cash flow of the seller and buyer are considered. All the relevant factors, including the federal tax credit and the added value of the house because of the solar system are included.

Very Short-term Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation - with Application to Solar Energy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Golestaneh, Faranak; Pinson, Pierre; Gooi, Hoay Beng

2016-01-01

Due to the inherent uncertainty involved in renewable energy forecasting, uncertainty quantification is a key input to maintain acceptable levels of reliability and profitability in power system operation. A proposal is formulated and evaluated here for the case of solar power generation, when only...... approach to generate very short-term predictive densities, i.e., for lead times between a few minutes to one hour ahead, with fast frequency updates. We rely on an Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) as a fast regression model, trained in varied ways to obtain both point and quantile forecasts of solar power...... generation. Four probabilistic methods are implemented as benchmarks. Rival approaches are evaluated based on a number of test cases for two solar power generation sites in different climatic regions, allowing us to show that our approach results in generation of skilful and reliable probabilistic forecasts...

Evaluation of nuclear power development scenarios in romania envisaging the long-term national energy sustainability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Margeanu, C.; Apostol, M.; Visan, I.; Prodea, I.

2015-01-01

The paper summarizes the results of RATEN ICN Pitesti experts' activities in the IAEA's Collaborative Project INPRO-SYNERGIES. Romanian study proposes to evaluate and analyze development of the nuclear capacity and increasing of its share in national energy sector, envisaging the long term national and regional energy sustainability by keeping options open for the future while bringing solutions to short/medium-term challenges. The study focused on the modelling of national NES (Nuclear Energy System) development on short and medium-term (time horizon 2050), considering the existing NFC (Nuclear Fuel Cycle) infrastructure and legislation, provisions of strategic documents in force and including also the possibility of regional collaboration regarding U/fresh fuel supply and SF (Spent Fuel) storage, as services provided at international market prices. The energy system modelling was realized by using the IAEA's MESSAGE program. The study results offer a clear image and also the possible answer to several key questions regarding: potential of nuclear energy to participate with an important share in national energy mix, in conditions of cost competitiveness, safety and security of supply; impact on national energy mix portfolio of capacities and electricity production; impact on Uranium domestic resources; economic projection/investments needed for new nuclear capacities addition; fresh fuel requirements for nuclear capacities; SF annually discharged and transferred to interim wet storage for cooling; SF volume in interim dry storage, etc. (authors)

The consumer dimension in new market mechanisms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ranchere, Anne-Soizic; Chamoy, Anne-Sophie; Scholtes, Emilie

2014-01-01

In a context of growing share of renewable energy sources and reduced electricity consumption, both long term and short term security of supply are under pressure. Gas fired power plants are facing reduced income from the energy market calling into question both the electricity market design and the electricity generation mix Integration of smart consumers (demand response) in the electricity System is a key element to address both questions. Due to market and System complexity, new market participants such as aggregators are contributing to building up and operating flexibility from consumers. Since 2009, Energy Pool has been actively contributing to the opening of new market mechanisms to value demand response. Energy Pool has developed services to support consumers in optimizing their flexibility. While today demand response value lies mainly in the balancing and reserve markets operated by the French transport System operator (RTE), new opportunities will emerge with the capacity market and the possibility to take advantage of the price signal by both increasing and reducing consumption. (authors)

The Energy Market 2004

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-08-01

This publication describes the markets for network based energy in a Nordic perspective, with an extension to the EU. The ongoing harmonization of the energy market policy is described in more detail in the sections dealing with energy policy and regulations. The network based energy markets differ in size, ownership structure and competition. The electricity and district heating markets in Sweden were deregulated in 1996. However, the natural gas market is being deregulated in stages, and will be completely open to competition by 2007 at the latest. The rules for promoting competition in trading and production on the network based energy markets have therefore been continually changed. The chapters dealing with the markets describe the effects of deregulation and how the market structures have changed. If a market is to perform well, the consumers must be active. A study performed by 'Elkonkurrensutredningen' (Electricity competition committee) shows that switching to a different supplier involves costs that restrict consumer mobility, and that the consumers are not sufficiently well informed. This publication also describes the development of prices and how the trading prices have developed on the competitive market. The markets for network based energy are in the course of continual development. This report gives a coherents view of the way the markets work and their development from a national monopoly to an open, competitive market. On such a deregulated market, consumers enjoy increased diversity and freedom of choice. This, in turn, has created the conditions for better utilization of resources at the production stage.

The Energy Market 2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This publication describes the markets for network based energy in a Nordic perspective, with an extension to the EU. The ongoing harmonization of the energy market policy is described in more detail in the sections dealing with energy policy and regulations. The network based energy markets differ in size, ownership structure and competition. The electricity and district heating markets in Sweden were deregulated in 1996. However, the natural gas market is being deregulated in stages, and will be completely open to competition by 2007 at the latest. The rules for promoting competition in trading and production on the network based energy markets have therefore been continually changed. The chapters dealing with the markets describe the effects of deregulation and how the market structures have changed. If a market is to perform well, the consumers must be active. A study performed by 'Elkonkurrensutredningen' (Electricity competition committee) shows that switching to a different supplier involves costs that restrict consumer mobility, and that the consumers are not sufficiently well informed. This publication also describes the development of prices and how the trading prices have developed on the competitive market. The markets for network based energy are in the course of continual development. This report gives a coherents view of the way the markets work and their development from a national monopoly to an open, competitive market. On such a deregulated market, consumers enjoy increased diversity and freedom of choice. This, in turn, has created the conditions for better utilization of resources at the production stage.

Turbulent cascades in foreign exchange markets

Science.gov (United States)

Ghashghaie, S.; Breymann, W.; Peinke, J.; Talkner, P.; Dodge, Y.

1996-06-01

THE availability of high-frequency data for financial markets has made it possible to study market dynamics on timescales of less than a day1. For foreign exchange (FX) rates Müller et al.2 have shown that there is a net flow of information from long to short timescales: the behaviour of long-term traders (who watch the markets only from time to time) influences the behaviour of short-term traders (who watch the markets continuously). Motivated by this hierarchical feature, we have studied FX market dynamics in more detail, and report here an analogy between these dynamics and hydrodynamic turbulence3-8. Specifically, the relationship between the probability density of FX price changes (δx) and the time delay (δt) (Fig. la) is much the same as the relationship between the probability density of the velocity differences (δv) of two points in a turbulent flow and their spatial separation δr (Fig. 1b). Guided by this similarity we claim that there is an information cascade in FX market dynamics that corresponds to the energy cascade in hydrodynamic turbulence. On the basis of this analogy we can now rationalize the statistics of FX price differences at different time delays, which is important for, for example, option pricing. The analogy also provides a conceptual framework for understanding the short-term dynamics of speculative markets.

Short term decisions for long term problems - The effect of foresight on model based energy systems analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keppo, Ilkka; Strubegger, Manfred

2010-01-01

This paper presents the development and demonstration of a limited foresight energy system model. The presented model is implemented as an extension to a large, linear optimization model, MESSAGE. The motivation behind changing the model is to provide an alternative decision framework, where information for the full time frame is not available immediately and sequential decision making under incomplete information is implied. While the traditional optimization framework provides the globally optimal decisions for the modeled problem, the framework presented here may offer a better description of the decision environment, under which decision makers must operate. We further modify the model to accommodate flexible dynamic constraints, which give an option to implement investments faster, albeit with a higher cost. Finally, the operation of the model is demonstrated using a moving window of foresight, with which decisions are taken for the next 30 years, but can be reconsidered later, when more information becomes available. We find that the results demonstrate some of the pitfalls of short term planning, e.g. lagging investments during earlier periods lead to higher requirements later during the century. Furthermore, the energy system remains more reliant on fossil based energy carriers, leading to higher greenhouse gas emissions.

Impact of wind power uncertainty forecasting on the market integration of wind energy in Spain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

González-Aparicio, I.; Zucker, A.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Reduction wind power forecasting uncertainty for day ahead and intraday markets. • Statistical relationship between total load and wind power generation. • Accurately forecast expected revenues from wind producer’s perspective. - Abstract: The growing share of electricity production from variable renewable energy sources increases the stochastic nature of the power system. This has repercussions on the markets for electricity. Deviations from forecasted production schedules require balancing of a generator’s position within a day. Short term products that are traded on power and/or reserve markets have been developed for this purpose, providing opportunities to actors who can offer flexibility in the short term. The value of flexibility is typically modelled using stochastic scenario extensions of dispatch models which requires, as a first step, understanding the nature of forecast uncertainties. This study provides a new approach for determining the forecast errors of wind power generation in the time period between the closure of the day ahead and the opening of the first intraday session using Spain as an example. The methodology has been developed using time series analysis for the years 2010–2013 to find the explanatory variables of the wind error variability by applying clustering techniques to reduce the range of uncertainty, and regressive techniques to forecast the probability density functions of the intra-day price. This methodology has been tested considering different system actions showing its suitability for developing intra-day bidding strategies and also for the generation of electricity generated from Renewable Energy Sources scenarios. This methodology could help a wind power producer to optimally bid into the intraday market based on more accurate scenarios, increasing their revenues and the system value of wind.

Has renewable energy induced competitive behavior in the Spanish electricity market?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciarreta, Aitor; Espinosa, Maria Paz; Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina

2017-01-01

Recent energy policy has favored a massive introduction of Renewable Energy Sources on electricity markets, which has greatly impacted their performance. First, the electricity price has decreased as a consequence of the so-called merit-order effect. Another relevant effect is associated to the intermittent nature of Renewable Energy, which has increased the cost of ancillary services. A third and important aspect, less addressed in the literature, is the induced change in the strategic behavior of the conventional electricity producers. In principle, the entry of new generators in a concentrated market would make it more competitive and change the strategic behavior of the incumbents. We test this hypothesis for the Spanish wholesale market. While we find no significant change in behavior for Nuclear, Hydropower and Coal, a change is observed in Combined Cycle bidding strategies after the entry of renewable generators. Our analysis shows that the massive entry of Renewable Energy Sources made other generators' behavior more competitive in the short run, but the effect was not persistent. - Highlights: • The indirect effects of RES affect prices in electricity markets. • RES induced little change in Nuclear, Coal and Hydropower generation. • Combined Cycle bidding strategies have evolved to adapt to the introduction of RES. • RES made Combined Cycle's behavior more competitive in the short run. • The competitive effect induced by RES is not persistent in the long run.

Is WTI crude oil market becoming weakly efficient over time? New evidence from multiscale analysis based on detrended fluctuation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Yudong; Liu, Li

2010-01-01

This paper extends the work in Tabak and Cajueiro (Are the crude oil markets becoming weakly efficient over time, Energy Economics 29 (2007) 28-36) and Alvarez-Ramirez et al. (Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: a detrended fluctuation analysis approach, Energy Economics 30 (2008) 2645-2656). In this paper, we test for the efficiency of WTI crude oil market through observing the dynamic of local Hurst exponents employing the method of rolling window based on multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis. Empirical results show that short-term, medium-term and long-term behaviors were generally turning into efficient behavior over time. However, in this way, the results also show that the market did not evolve along stable conditions for long times. Multiscale analysis is also implemented based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. We found that the small fluctuations of WTI crude oil market were persistent; however, the large fluctuations had high instability, both in the short- and long-terms. Our discussion is also extended by incorporating arguments from the crude oil market structure for explaining the different correlation dynamics. (author)

Embedded generation for industrial demand response in renewable energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leanez, Frank J.; Drayton, Glenn

2010-01-01

Uncertainty in the electrical energy market is expected to increase with growth in the percentage of generation using renewable resources. Demand response can play a key role in giving stability to system operation. This paper discusses the embedded generation for industrial demand response in renewable energy markets. The methodology of the demand response is explained. It consists of long-term optimization and stochastic optimization. Wind energy, among all the renewable resources, is becoming increasingly popular. Volatility in the wind energy sector is high and this is explained using examples. Uncertainty in the wind market is shown using stochastic optimization. Alternative techniques for generation of wind energy were seen to be needed. Embedded generation techniques include co-generation (CHP) and pump storage among others. These techniques are analyzed and the results are presented. From these results, it is seen that investment in renewables is immediately required and that innovative generation technologies are also required over the long-term.

Panorama 2014 - Short term trends in the gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lecarpentier, Armelle

2013-12-01

Due to sustained competition between energy sources and an economic and geopolitical climate that is still unstable, gas growth has slowed. The year 2013 looks very mixed for the gas industry, particularly on the upstream side. Constraints on the supply of gas and the increased dependence on imports in consumer markets increase the vulnerability of the gas markets to the vagaries of geopolitical risks and result in tensions on the international market. In an environment full of uncertainties about future prices and contractual terms, investors are slow to initiate the projects necessary for a global gas balance in this decade. (author)

Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance

OpenAIRE

Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

2017-01-01

Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term...

The european union emission trading scheme and energy markets: economic and financial analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bertrand, Vincent

2012-01-01

This thesis investigates relationships between the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and energy markets. A special focus is given to fuel switching, the main short term abatement measure within the EU ETS. This consists in substituting Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGTs) for hard-coal plants in off-peak power generation. Thereby coal plants run for shorter periods, which allows power producers to reduce their CO 2 emissions. In Chapter 1, we outline different approaches explaining relationships between carbon and energy markets. We also review the literature relating to these issues. Next, we further describe the fuel switching process and, in particular, we analyze the influence of energy and environmental efficiency of thermal power plants (coal and gas) on fuel switching. In Chapter 2, we provide a theoretical analysis that shows how differences in the efficiency of CCGTs can rule interactions between gas and carbon prices. The main result shows that the allowance price becomes more sensitive to the gas price when the level of CO 2 emissions increases. In Chapter 3, we examine interactions between carbon, coal, gas and electricity prices in an empirical study. Among the main results, we find that there is a significant link between carbon and gas prices in the long-run equilibrium. In Chapter 4, we analyze the cross-market price discovery process between gas and CO 2 markets. We identified in previous chapters that there is a robust significant link between gas and CO 2 markets. They are linked commodities, and their prices are affected by the same information. In an empirical analysis, we find that the carbon market is the leader in cross-market price discovery process. (author)

Operations Management in Short Term Power Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heide-Jørgensen, Ditte Mølgård

Electricity market models have often been modelled as deterministic or at most two-stage stochastic models with an hourly time resolution. This thesis looks into possible ways of extending such models and formulating new models to handle both higher time resolution than hourly and stochastics wit...

The impact of intermittent sources of energy on the market price of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adigbli, Patrick; Mahuet, Audrey

2013-01-01

Parallel to liberalization of the electricity market, these past twenty years have been marked by a strong expansion of renewable energy in Europe. The increasing share of renewables in the energy mix - with a goal set by the European Commission at 20% by 2020 - has an impact on market prices. In the short run, subsidized intermittent energy may lead to lower prices or even to negative prices during certain periods of the year

Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

2018-02-01

Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

The market for tradable renewable energy credits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berry, David

2002-01-01

As states seek to foster the development of renewable energy resources, some have introduced renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) which require retailers of electricity to derive a specified amount of their energy supply from renewable energy resources. RPSs in Texas, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada allow for or require the use of tradable renewable energy credits. The price of such credits is expected to reflect the cost premium for generating electricity from renewable resources relative to the market price of conventionally generated electricity. Using the market to trade renewable energy credits exposes buyers and sellers to risks of imperfect information, poor performance, and opportunism. These risks can be managed through contractual arrangements and regulatory requirements pertaining to property rights in credits, pricing, term of the contract, and assurance of performance

Panorama 2011: Short-term trends in the gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lecarpentier, A.

2011-01-01

2009 was a particularly bad year for the natural gas industry, with demand falling dramatically by 2.8% as a result of the world economic crisis. However, 2010 appears to have been a very positive year for the industry, with a sustained increase in production and trade. Increased economic activity, together with harsh winters and competitive gas prices are the reasons for the markets having rediscovered their buoyancy. Although the economic recovery has shown signs of fragility in OECD countries, global natural gas demand should continue to grow rapidly in the short-term, driven by consumption in developing countries, suggesting that the gas bubble will be reabsorbed faster than expected on the international markets. (author)

Qualitative and quantitative assessment of the short- and long-term consequences of opting out of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Briem, G.; Halstrick, M.; Heilemann, U.; Hillebrand, B.; Kiy, M.; Neuhaus, R.; Knieper, O.; Schmidt, H.W.; Weiss, T.

1986-08-01

A reference scenario establishes the prospective development of the energy and overall economy under status-quo conditions, i.e. assuming especially the continued use of nuclear energy, while two scenarios (alternative I: 'immediate opting out' and alternative II: 'opting out in the long term') try to assess the consequences of a shutdown of nuclear energy for the economic development of the Federal Republic of Germany. Especially, the study deals with the effects on the power industry, the ecological consequences, and the overall economic effects both in the short and long run. In all three scenarios, the development of the home consumption of electric power is first of all determined by a structure model of the entire economy. The capacity required to meet that demand and its use are calculated with the aid of a power plant model; short- and long-term cost-minimization programmes making allowance especially for fuel and capital costs from the elements from which these quantities are derived. Fuel and capital costs operate as variables in the structure model to determine the sectoral and overall economic development. The report in addition investigates separately, in partial models, the effects on the chemical industry and the branches of industry processing iron, steel, and non-ferrous metals, all of which are greatly in demand of electric power. (orig./UA) [de

Does NVIX matter for market volatility? Evidence from Asia-Pacific markets

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Zhi; Fang, Tong; Yin, Libo

2018-02-01

Forecasting financial market volatility is an important issue in the area of econophysics, and revealing the determinants of the market volatility has drawn much attentions of the academics. In order to better predict market volatilities, we use news-based implied volatility (NVIX) to measure uncertainty, and examine the predictive power of NVIX on the stock market volatility in both long and short-term among Asia-Pacific markets via GARCH-MIDAS model. We find that NVIX does not well explain long-term volatility variants in the full sample period, and it is positively associated with market volatility through a subsample analysis starting from the Financial Crisis. We also find that NVIX is more efficient in determining short-term volatility than the long-term volatility, indicating that the impact of NVIX is short-lived and information that investors concern could be quickly reflected in the stock market volatilities.

German energy market 2016

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Weltenergierat, Berlin

2017-01-01

The basic orientation of the German energy supply to the increased use of renewable energies, while increasing energy efficiency, is prediscribed by the German government's energy concept and determines the market development. A current overview of the German energy market is given, which provides also this year a concentrated Compilation of the key data of the energy industry. As in the years before, the article not only summarizes general facts about the energy mix, but also goes into detail on the development of the individual energy sources, petroleum, natural gas, brown coal and hard coal, electricity as well as renewable energies. Furthermore, the price trends of international markets and in the domestic market are explained. A current overview of the development of greenhouse gas emissions concludes the contribution. [de

Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, G.

2005-01-01

Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective...... evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results...... from both on-shore and off-shore wind forms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems....

Energy Choices. The energy markets and the energy policy choices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergman, Lars; Lindh, Hampus

2009-03-01

Well-functioning energy markets are in society's interests whatever the circumstances. Furthermore, supply, demand and the competitive situation in the various energy markets influence the effect of energy and climate change policy measures. There are therefore good reasons to examine and evaluate how the energy markets operate. In this report we specifically focus on the energy markets. The analysis has been carried out against the background of the overall objectives for energy and climate change policy in Sweden and the EU. However, for these goals to be attainable a number of concrete energy and climate change policy decisions will have to be taken in the coming years. Some of these are key issues that will prove decisive for the formulation of energy and climate change policy, and we therefore also discuss these. The first of these concerns which policy instruments should be chosen to influence the energy markets. The second key issue concerns the power companies' prospects for using nuclear power even in the future. We will also focus on the extent to which energy and climate change policy chooses to prioritise measures which mean that climate change policy objectives can be achieved at the lowest possible cost. We can briefly summarize our results in the following conclusions: The cost of achieving the climate change policy objectives set by Sweden and the EU will probably be very high. It is therefore important that the choices made ensure that climate change policy objectives are achieved at the lowest possible cost. Focusing on keeping costs to a minimum may in actual fact be the very thing that makes it at all possible to achieve these goals. The best solution then is as far as possible to base energy and climate change policy on so-called market-based instruments, such as emission charges and tradable emission permits. Emissions of carbon dioxide are easy to measure and the siting of emission sources is irrelevant in terms of the effect of the emissions

A New Two-Stage Approach to Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dragan Tasić

2013-04-01

Full Text Available In the deregulated energy market, the accuracy of load forecasting has a significant effect on the planning and operational decision making of utility companies. Electric load is a random non-stationary process influenced by a number of factors which make it difficult to model. To achieve better forecasting accuracy, a wide variety of models have been proposed. These models are based on different mathematical methods and offer different features. This paper presents a new two-stage approach for short-term electrical load forecasting based on least-squares support vector machines. With the aim of improving forecasting accuracy, one more feature was added to the model feature set, the next day average load demand. As this feature is unknown for one day ahead, in the first stage, forecasting of the next day average load demand is done and then used in the model in the second stage for next day hourly load forecasting. The effectiveness of the presented model is shown on the real data of the ISO New England electricity market. The obtained results confirm the validity advantage of the proposed approach.

When satisfied customers do not return : Variety seeking’s effect on short-and long-term intentions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sánchez-García, I.; Pieters, R.; Zeelenberg, M.; Bigné, E.

2012-01-01

Even satisfied consumers frequently do not come back, which challenges loyalty theory and marketing practice. It is reasoned that variety-seeking tendencies will significantly affect short-term revisit intentions, whereas satisfaction and regret will mostly determine long-term revisit intentions.

Dangerous dream: Nuclear power. With an attached short dictionary of terms in nuclear energy. Der gefaehrliche Traum: Atomkraft. Mit kleinem Lexikon der Atom-Energie

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paul, R

1986-01-01

After Chernobyl: Necessary basic knowledge and information, data on safety hazards and risks, sketches of all German nuclear power plants and brief accounts of incidents reported so far, consequences of the Chernobyl and Harrisburg accidents for man and the environment, emergency control plans. With an attached short dictionary of terms in nuclear energy.

A novel two-stage stochastic programming model for uncertainty characterization in short-term optimal strategy for a distribution company

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmadi, Abdollah; Charwand, Mansour; Siano, Pierluigi; Nezhad, Ali Esmaeel; Sarno, Debora; Gitizadeh, Mohsen; Raeisi, Fatima

2016-01-01

In order to supply the demands of the end users in a competitive market, a distribution company purchases energy from the wholesale market while other options would be in access in the case of possessing distributed generation units and interruptible loads. In this regard, this study presents a two-stage stochastic programming model for a distribution company energy acquisition market model to manage the involvement of different electric energy resources characterized by uncertainties with the minimum cost. In particular, the distribution company operations planning over a day-ahead horizon is modeled as a stochastic mathematical optimization, with the objective of minimizing costs. By this, distribution company decisions on grid purchase, owned distributed generation units and interruptible load scheduling are determined. Then, these decisions are considered as boundary constraints to a second step, which deals with distribution company's operations in the hour-ahead market with the objective of minimizing the short-term cost. The uncertainties in spot market prices and wind speed are modeled by means of probability distribution functions of their forecast errors and the roulette wheel mechanism and lattice Monte Carlo simulation are used to generate scenarios. Numerical results show the capability of the proposed method. - Highlights: • Proposing a new a stochastic-based two-stage operations framework in retail competitive markets. • Proposing a Mixed Integer Non-Linear stochastic programming. • Employing roulette wheel mechanism and Lattice Monte Carlo Simulation.

Carbon auctions, energy markets and market power: An experimental analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dormady, Noah C.

2014-01-01

This paper provides an experimental analysis of a simultaneous energy-emissions market under conditions of market power. The experimental design employs real-world institutional features; including stochastic demand, permit banking, inter-temporal (multi-round) dynamics, a tightening cap, and resale. The results suggest that dominant firms can utilize energy-emissions market linkages to simultaneously inflate the price of energy and suppress the price of emissions allowances. Whereas under prior market designs, regulators were concerned with dominant firms exercising their market power over the emissions market to exclude rivals and manipulate the permit market by hoarding permits; the results of this paper suggest that this strategy is less profitable to dominant firms in contemporary auction-based markets than strategic capacity withholding in the energy market and associated demand reduction in the emissions market. - Highlights: • Laboratory simulation of joint energy-emissions market. • Evaluates market power under collusion and real-world institutional features. • Dominant firms can exercise market power to inflate energy prices. • Dominant firms can exercise market power to suppress emissions prices. • Supply withholding is an implicit demand reduction in the emissions market

Arbitrage free pricing of forward and futures in the energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kloster, Kristian

2003-01-01

sudden changes. Forward pricing in this market may not be as precise as in other markets , which explains the instability of some results. My main result is that my model works for short-term contracts, but my risk parameter is not stable enough to make good estimates for long-term contracts. In chapter 8 I derived an option price for both European and American options. The problem with incompleteness, which arises when valuing energy-options on the spot price, is not a problem for these options. The forward contract is in itself storable, and therefore the market is complete for these options. Another reason why my model should work is that the cash flow of the forward contract takes place at the contracts maturity date. The result is that the option is always worth more than the forward contract, and the exercised option is worth the same as the forward contract. Note that this is not the case for futures. (Author)

Successful Regional Pellets Market Development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oehlinger, Christine

2006-01-01

In Upper Austria, renewable energy sources (RES) provide over 30 % of the primary energy consumption (of which 14 % is biomass). That high market penetration was achieved by a clear energy strategy including an energy action plan. The O.Oe. Energiesparverband, the energy agency of Upper Austria, is responsible for the implementation of the measures included in the action plan. Establishing a new market in a short term period is possible and the Upper Austrian example of biomass market development gives a clear signal that a positive change can be brought about: oil-heating installations in new homes decreased from 36 % in 1999 to less than 1 % in the year 2005; and the share of renewable energy heating installations in new-built homes increased in the same time period from 32 % to 70 %. The ambitious goal of doubling the share of modern biomass heating systems until 2010 was defined for future market development

Short-term economics of virtual power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kok, J.K.

2009-08-01

The Virtual Power Plant (VPP) has gained an increasing interest over the last few years. A VPP is a flexible representation of a portfolio of Distributed Energy Resources (DER: distributed generation, demand response and electricity storage). One of the key activities of a VPP is the delivery of (near-)real-time balancing services. In order to operate such a (near-)real-time coordination activity optimally, the VPP needs to maintain a dynamic merit-order list of all DER participating in the VPP. In order to make optimal decisions based on this list, the merit order needs to be based on the true marginal cost (or marginal benefit in case of demand response) of the individual DER units. The marginal electricity costs of most types of DER are highly dependent on local context and, hence, change over time. From analysis of the short-term bid strategies of various DER units, the existence of a bid strategy spectrum becomes clear. On one end of the spectrum, bidding strategies are based straightforwardly on true marginal cost or benefit. Further along the spectrum, optimal bidding strategies become less dependent on marginal cost levels and more on the price dynamics in the (VPP) market context. These results are relevant for VPP operations both from business and technical perspectives.

Energy prices and the promotion of energy conservation. A background study for energy conservation programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The prices of fuels in the international markets affect the development of consumer prices of energy in Finland. In the near future no factors can be foreseen, which would cause major increases in the prices of oil, coal or gas. It can thus not be expected that increased fuel prices would motivate more efficient energy conservation. In international comparison, consumer prices of energy have been relatively low in Finland. This applies especially to electricity. After the removal of price controls, energy prices have been determined by the markets. The influence of the public authorities in energy pricing is put into effect through taxation. The price of energy has a fairly small effect on energy consumption in a short term, but longer term effects are more significant. Energy products are faxed in all western countries. (orig.)

Will there be room left for wind energy in the future energy market?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinelli, Renato

2014-03-01

After having noticed and outlined that the electricity market is now facing an unprecedented crisis, that its rules are not adapted to the new electric paradigm any more, that wind energy has now a positive impact on the French electric system, that the electricity market crisis puts wind energy and more generally renewable energies into question again, and that the whole world, after Europe, has largely chosen wind energy, this brief document outlines the results of a survey on the credit given by French people to renewable energies, and then defines four priorities for the development of wind energy in France: a clearer economic framework, a commitment on the long term, a simpler legal and technical framework, and the proposition of an industrial pact

Defect production in simulated cascades: cascade quenching and short-term annealing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinisch, H.L.

1982-01-01

Defect production in high energy displacement cascades has been modeled using the computer code MARLOWE to generate the cascades and the stochastic computer code ALSOME to simulate the cascade quenching and short-term annealing of isolated cascades. The quenching is accomplished by using ALSOME with exaggerated values for defect mobilities and critical reaction distanes for recombination and clustering, which are in effect until the number of defect pairs is equal to the value determined from resistivity experiments at 4K. Then normal mobilities and reaction distances are used during short-term annealing to a point representative of Stage III recovery. Effects of cascade interactions at low fluences are also being investigated. The quenching parameter values were empirically determined for 30 keV cascades. The results agree well with experimental information throughout the range from 1 keV to 100 keV. Even after quenching and short-term annealing the high energy cascades behave as a collection of lower energy subcascades and lobes. Cascades generated in a crystal having thermal displacements were found to be in better agreement with experiments after quenching and annealing than those generated in a non-thermal crystal

Short-term responses of Dutch vacationers to a sharp increase in transport costs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Cranenburgh, S.

2016-01-01

This paper investigates vacationers’ short-term responses to a sharp increase in transport costs. It aims to (1) acquire an understanding of the relative popularity of the different types of responses among vacationers and (2) explore whether there are distinct market segments of vacationers that

Modern Energy Markets Real-Time Pricing, Renewable Resources and Efficient Distribution

CERN Document Server

Kopsakangas-Savolainen, Maria

2012-01-01

Energy has moved to the forefront in terms of societal and economic development. Modern Energy Markets is a comprehensive, economically oriented, exploration of modern electricity networks from production and distribution to deregulation and liberalization processes. Updating previous work by the authors, different aspects are considered resulting in a complete and detailed picture of  the systems and characteristics of modern electricity markets. Modern Energy Markets provides clear detail whilst encompassing a broad scope of topics and includes: •A method to model energy production systems including the main characteristics of future demand side management, •Different applications of this model in nuclear and renewable energy scenarios, •An analysis of Real-Time Pricing of electricity and its potential effects across the market, and, •A discussion of the need for regulation in an easily monopolized industry. Engineering and Economics students alike will find that Modern Energy Markets is a succinct...

Relationships among energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy: evidence from China.

Science.gov (United States)

Cong, Rong-Gang; Shen, Shaochuan

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the interactive relationships among China energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy using multivariate vector autoregression. The results indicate that there is a long cointegration among them. A 1% rise in the energy price index can depress the stock market index by 0.54% and the industrial value-adding growth by 0.037%. Energy price shocks also cause inflation and have a 5-month lag effect on stock market, which may result in the stock market "underreacting." The energy price can explain stock market fluctuations better than the interest rate over a longer time period. Consequently, investors should pay greater attention to the long-term effect of energy on the stock market.

Backwardation in energy futures markets: Metalgesellschaft revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charupat, N.; Deaves, R.

2003-01-01

Energy supply contracts negotiated by the US Subsidiary of Metalgesellschaft Refining and Marketing (MGRM), which were the subject of much subsequent debate, are re-examined. The contracts were hedged by the US Subsidiary barrel-for-barrel using short-dated energy derivatives. When the hedge program experienced difficulties, the derivatives positions were promptly liquidated by the parent company. Revisiting the MGRM contracts also provides the opportunity to explore the latest evidence on backwardation in energy markets. Accordingly, the paper discusses first the theoretical reasons for backwardation, followed by an empirical examination using the MGRM data available at the time of the hedge program in 1992 and a second set of data that became available in 2000. By using a more up-to-date data set covering a longer time period and by controlling the time series properties of the data, the authors expect to provide more reliable empirical evidence on the behaviour of energy futures prices. Results based on the 1992 data suggest that the strategy employed by MGRM could be expected to be profitable while the risks are relatively low. However, analysis based on the 2000 data shows lower, although still significant profits, but higher risks. The final conclusion was that the likelihood of problems similar to those faced by MGRM in 1992 are twice as high with the updated 2000 data, suggesting that the risk-return pattern of the stack-and-roll hedging strategy using short-dated energy future contracts to hedge long-tem contracts is less appealing now than when MGRM implemented its hedging program in 1992. 24 refs., 3 tabs., 6 figs

Effect of feeding greater amounts of dietary energy for a short-term with or without eCG injection on reproductive performance, serum metabolites and hormones in ewes.

Science.gov (United States)

Habibizad, Javad; Riasi, Ahmad; Kohram, Hamid; Rahmani, Hamid Reza

2015-09-01

This study was conducted to compare the effect of transient high-energy diet in a short-term period with or without eCG injection on ovarian follicle development, twining rate, serum metabolites and hormones in ewes. A total of 45 estrous cyclic Naeini ewes were randomly assigned to three experimental groups: 1-Control (control), 2-High energy short-term feeding (HE), and 3-high energy short-term feeding + eCG injection (HEe). Ewes were housed in individual pens with free access to feed and water. The stage of the estrous cycle of all ewes was synchronized by insertion of intravaginal progesterone sponges. Focus feeding started from 4 days before until 1 day after sponge removal. Follicle development was monitored from 4 days before until 1 day after sponge removal and blood samples were taken during this time. Results showed that ewes fed high energy diets (HE and HEe) had greater (P ewes fed high energy diets had less (P ewes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Managing total corporate electricity/energy market risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henney, A.; Keers, G.

1998-01-01

The banking industry has developed a tool kit of very useful value at risk techniques for hedging risk, but these techniques must be adapted to the special complexities of the electricity market. This paper starts with a short history of the use of value-at-risk (VAR) techniques in banking risk management and then examines the specific and, in many instances, complex risk management challenges faced by electric companies from the behavior of prices in electricity markets and from the character of generation and electric retailing risks. The third section describes the main methods for making VAR calculations along with an analysis of their suitability for analyzing the risks of electricity portfolios and the case for using profit at risk and downside risk as measures of risk. The final section draws the threads together and explains how to look at managing total corporate electricity market risk, which is a big step toward managing total corporate energy market risk

The Swedish Energy Market 2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-10-01

The Swedish Energy Market, 2005 is an annual publication that presents information and statistics on the network based energy markets in Sweden, i.e. the markets for electricity, natural gas and district heating. It also provides an overview of the issues that have arisen on these markets during the second half of 2004 and the first half of 2005. Considerable work is being carried out in the EU on creating a single market for electricity and natural gas. This publication therefore describes expansion of the Swedish market towards a Nordic and a European market. The publication normally includes a theme chapter, describing some event of particular interest for the Swedish energy market during the year. This year, the theme chapter is devoted to the Storm Gudrun, which struck the south of the country at the beginning of January, and its effects on electricity supply throughout the country. The chapter is based on the report submitted to the Government by the Energy Markets Inspectorate in the spring of 2005, and also includes a summary of the Inspectorate's proposals for measures to improve the security of electricity transmission. Energy in Sweden, which is another of the Swedish Energy Agency's annual publications, provides information and statistics on the development of the entire Swedish energy system

Evaluation of NEB energy markets and supply monitoring function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-09-01

Canada's National Energy Board regulates the exports of oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids and electricity. It also regulates the construction, operation and tolls of international and interprovincial pipelines and power lines. It also monitors energy supply and market developments in Canada. The Board commissioned an evaluation of the monitoring function to ensure the effectiveness and efficiency of the monitoring activities, to identify gaps in these activities and to propose recommendations. The objectives of the monitoring mandate are to provide Canadians with information regarding Canadian energy markets, energy supply and demand, and to ensure that exports of natural gas, oil, natural gas liquids and electricity do not occur at the detriment of Canadian energy users. The Board ensures that Canadians have access to domestically produced energy on terms that are as favourable as those available to export buyers. The following recommendations were proposed to improve the monitoring of energy markets and supply: (1) increase focus and analysis on the functioning of gas (first priority) and other commodity markets, (2) increase emphasis on forward-looking market analysis and issue identification, (3) demonstrate continued leadership by encouraging public dialogue on a wide range of energy market issues, (4) improve communication and increase visibility of the NEB within the stakeholder community, (5) build on knowledge management and organizational learning capabilities, (6) improve communication and sharing of information between the Applications and Commodities Business Units, and (7) enhance organizational effectiveness of the Commodities Business Unit. figs

Monitoring market power in electricity market. Prepared for Competition Authority and Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate; Overvaakning av markedsmakt i kraftmarkedet. Utarbeidet for Konkurransetilsynet og NVE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2004-07-01

The report outlines a plan to monitor competition in the physical energy market in Norway. As an indicator of short-term exercise of market power,it is proposed to base the calculations of a daily index that measures the average price premium compared to an estimated value of water in combination with an index which measures the maximum price mark-up. To investigate whether there are indications on strategic movement of water over long periods, it is necessary to compare market solution with model simulations of efficient water allocation. Both approaches are tested on the market adaptation of the hydrological year 2002/2003. In both cases, we find deviations that can not simply be explained by price taker behavior, but which can not be taken as evidence of strategic behavior. To investigate whether the adaptation is due to strategic behavior, noise or other factors, it is necessary to enter into individual participants' bidding in the spot market. (AG)

Energy Sector Market Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arent, D.; Benioff, R.; Mosey, G.; Bird, L.; Brown, J.; Brown, E.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Aabakken, J.; Parks, K.; Lapsa, M.; Davis, S.; Olszewski, M.; Cox, D.; McElhaney, K.; Hadley, S.; Hostick, D.; Nicholls, A.; McDonald, S.; Holloman, B.

2006-10-01

This paper presents the results of energy market analysis sponsored by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Weatherization and International Program (WIP) within the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). The analysis was conducted by a team of DOE laboratory experts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), with additional input from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The analysis was structured to identify those markets and niches where government can create the biggest impact by informing management decisions in the private and public sectors. The analysis identifies those markets and niches where opportunities exist for increasing energy efficiency and renewable energy use.

Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France; Modelisation a court terme des consommations de produits petroliers en France

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cadren, M

1998-06-23

The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It`s filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter`s. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach`s and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author) 153 refs.

Canadian natural gas market: dynamics and pricing -- an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-11-01

This publication is part of the Energy Market Assessment Program of the National Energy Board. It focuses on identifying factors that affect natural gas prices and describe the current functioning of domestic regional markets in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces.The report emphasizes the growth in demand for natural gas throughout North America, and the aggressive response by producers to the current high price environment with increased drilling programs. The report also predicts a supply and demand adjustment over time, and an accompanying relief in natural gas prices, although the Board is not able to predict with certainty any movements in commodity markets. The Board's findings indicate that domestic users of natural gas paid less than export customers until 1998, at which point the two prices have converged. The end result of the convergence was that Canadians have had access to natural gas under terms and conditions which were no less favourable than those in effect for export customers. The influence of electronic trading systems is reviewed, noting that spot markets and futures markets such as the NYMEX and AECO-C/NIT have had a significant impact on the pricing of natural gas, mostly by allowing market participants to manage price volatility by forward contracting. 1 tab., 42 figs., 1 glossary

1992 status report: U.S. sets new wind energy record as domestic market stagnates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gipe, Paul

1993-01-01

The current status of the USA wind turbine industry is reviewed both in terms of its domestic market and the global market. Although performance in the domestic market continues to improve and costs continue to drop, the growing European market resulting from their national policies to encourage renewable energies threaten the previous US dominance in this field. It is argued that US national energy policy should aid wind energy development. (UK)

Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Ak, Ronay; Fink, Olga; Zio, Enrico

2016-08-01

The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria.

The Swedish Energy Market 2005

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-10-01

The Swedish Energy Market, 2005 is an annual publication that presents information and statistics on the network based energy markets in Sweden, i.e. the markets for electricity, natural gas and district heating. It also provides an overview of the issues that have arisen on these markets during the second half of 2004 and the first half of 2005. Considerable work is being carried out in the EU on creating a single market for electricity and natural gas. This publication therefore describes expansion of the Swedish market towards a Nordic and a European market. The publication normally includes a theme chapter, describing some event of particular interest for the Swedish energy market during the year. This year, the theme chapter is devoted to the Storm Gudrun, which struck the south of the country at the beginning of January, and its effects on electricity supply throughout the country. The chapter is based on the report submitted to the Government by the Energy Markets Inspectorate in the spring of 2005, and also includes a summary of the Inspectorate's proposals for measures to improve the security of electricity transmission. Energy in Sweden, which is another of the Swedish Energy Agency's annual publications, provides information and statistics on the development of the entire Swedish energy system.

SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF DIESEL OIL ON PHYTOPLANKTON

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PROF. EKWEME

Short-term effect of Nigerian diesel oil was tested on the phytoplankton species in Great Kwa River ... aquatic environment. Plant life is the basis of all food web in nature and hence constitutes the makes this fundamental contribution by photosynthesis, utilizing radiant energy to .... (2 cells/ml) re-colonized the area. The three ...

Money Markets

OpenAIRE

Marvin Goodfriend

2011-01-01

Money markets offer monetary services and short-term finance in the capital market with the credit support of institutional sponsors. Investors finance money market instruments at low interest because their salability on short notice confers an implicit monetary services yield. Low interest attracts borrowers to money markets. The fragile equilibrium depends on collective confidence in the credit quality of instruments supplied to the market. Federal Reserve monetary and credit policies have ...

Energy policy and European utilities' strategy: Lessons from the liberalisation and privatisation of the energy sector in Romania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haar, Laura N.; Marinescu, Nicolae

2011-01-01

In the context of energy sector reforms pursued by Romanian government since 1990s, we compare and contrast the market outcomes of European utilities' investment with the host government policy objectives. We begin with energy market reform in Romania and review governments' efforts to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and to gradually withdraw from the distribution and supply segments of electricity market. Subsequently, we illustrate the scope European utilities have had, market policy and design notwithstanding, for consolidating market power through regional dominance. We examine the extent to which these utilities have sought to enhance their positions through horizontal and vertical integration, counter to the EU plans for a competitive market structure. We find that the investments of European incumbents have not been resoundingly successful: although market entrance may have been justified on long-term strategic grounds, in the immediate term, segments acquired through competitive auctions have yielded modest regulated returns. Finally, we discuss the extent to which policy makers have achieved their goals. Although the short-term benefits of a competitive market structure have reached some consumers, a renewed interest in promoting 'national champions' reflect frustration with market mechanisms as a means of ensuring long-term strategic investments in the sector. - Research highlights: → We analyze the European Utilities activities in Romania after market liberalization. → We find government efforts to reform energy sector attracted foreign direct investment. → We find utilities consolidated market power horizontally in Central European region. → The short-term benefits of competitive forces contrast the weak returns by utilities. → To encourage further investment, government should not promote national champions.

Market conditions affecting energy efficiency investments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seabright, J.

1996-01-01

The global energy efficiency market is growing, due in part to energy sector and macroeconomic reforms and increased awareness of the environmental benefits of energy efficiency. Many countries have promoted open, competitive markets, thereby stimulating economic growth. They have reduced or removed subsidies on energy prices, and governments have initiated energy conservation programs that have spurred the wider adoption of energy efficiency technologies. The market outlook for energy efficiency is quite positive. The global market for end-use energy efficiency in the industrial, residential and commercial sectors is now estimated to total more than $34 billion per year. There is still enormous technical potential to implement energy conservation measures and to upgrade to the best available technologies for new investments. For many technologies, energy-efficient designs now represent less than 10--20% of new product sales. Thus, creating favorable market conditions should be a priority. There are a number of actions that can be taken to create favorable market conditions for investing in energy efficiency. Fostering a market-oriented energy sector will lead to energy prices that reflect the true cost of supply. Policy initiatives should address known market failures and should support energy efficiency initiatives. And market transformation for energy efficiency products and services can be facilitated by creating an institutional and legal structure that favors commercially-oriented entities

Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter

2010-01-01

Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter [University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

2010-12-15

Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

77 FR 76959 - Energy Conservation Program: Request for Exclusion of 100 Watt R20 Short Incandescent Reflector...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-31

... subject to energy conservation standards, the manufacturers removed the product from the market... Conservation Program: Request for Exclusion of 100 Watt R20 Short Incandescent Reflector Lamp From Energy Conservation Standards AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of Energy. ACTION...

Combined heat and power production planning in a waste-to-energy plant on a short-term basis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Touš, Michal; Pavlas, Martin; Putna, Ondřej; Stehlík, Petr; Crha, Lukáš

2015-01-01

In many cases, WtE (waste-to-energy) plants are CHP (combined heat and power) producers. They are often integrated into a central heating system and they also export electricity to the grid. Therefore, they have to plan their operation on a long-term basis (months, years) as well as on a short-term basis (hours, days). Simulation models can effectively support decision making in CHP production planning. In general, CHP production planning on a short-term basis is a challenging task for WtE plants. This article presents a simulation based support. It is demonstrated on an example involving a real WtE plant. Most of the models of relevant WtE sub-systems (boilers, steam turbine) are developed using operational data and applying linear regression and artificial neural network technique. The process randomness given mainly by fluctuating heating value of waste leads to uncertainty in a calculation of CHP production and a stochastic approach is appropriate. The models of the sub-systems are, therefore, extended of a stochastic part and Monte-Carlo simulation is applied. Compared to the current planning strategy in the involved WtE plant, the stochastic simulation based planning provides increased CHP production resulting in better net thermal efficiency and increased revenue. This is demonstrated through a comparison using real operational data. - Highlights: • Introduction of a stochastic model of a CHP production in a waste-to-energy plant. • An application of the model for the next day CHP production planning. • Better net thermal efficiency and therefore increased revenue achieved.

Recent trends in the registered nurse labor market in the U.S.: short-run swings on top of long-term trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Buerhaus, Peter I; Auerbach, David I; Staiger, Douglas O

2007-01-01

Drawing from labor economics, background information is provided for a deeper understanding of recent changes in the nurse labor market. The difference between the short and long-run supply of RNs are distinguished, and the economic forces that determine RNs' decision to be active in the labor market are explained. The ways the nurse labor market may change in the next few years are discussed.

Residential/commercial market for energy technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glesk, M M

1979-08-01

The residential/commercial market sector, particularly as it relates to energy technologies, is described. Buildings account for about 25% of the total energy consumed in the US. Market response to energy technologies is influenced by several considerations. Some considerations discussed are: industry characteristics; market sectors; energy-consumption characeristics; industry forecasts; and market influences. Market acceptance may be slow or nonexistent, the technology may have little impact on energy consumption, and redesign or modification may be necessary to overcome belatedly perceived market barriers. 7 figures, 20 tables.

Electricity and long term supply security. Search for power market respectful legal instruments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, D.; Pignon, V.

2006-01-01

This paper, also published in 'ISMEA Economie et Societe' Journal (Energy series 2006, no.10), deals with theoretical aspects of long term electricity supply security. Market prices and contractual arrangements on the physical and financial electricity markets do not allow to create sufficient incentives to invest in adequate capacity for guaranteeing the appropriate level of supply in every circumstance. The long term security of supply by capacity adequacy must be conceptualized as a collective good. Alternative solutions to reach capacity adequacy which have been adopted in different markets are successively considered: public procurement of strategic reserves, capacity payment, capacity obligation with exchangeable rights. Each one presents theoretical limits and practical drawbacks when implemented in complex markets. That brings out the interest of mechanism of centralized auctions for forward capacity contracts (or reliability options); it combines controls by quantity and by price while stabilizing investment in peak power plants and is compatible with energy and reserves markets, that is not the case of the three other instruments. (authors)

Wind energy in the next millennium and the next year

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chabot, B.

1999-01-01

The rapid development of wind energy was once again confirmed in 1998 and everything points to the fact that this road will in the next century rapidly become the third channel of primary electricity production in the world, both in terms of annual sales and contribution of energy. In particular, a scenario for the development, of wind energy in the coming century is proposed, taking as model and minimum objective the historical development of success of wind energy should prove perfectly feasible, it is difficult to foresee in the short term the actual impact of the liberalization of electricity markets on existing inducements in favour of wind energy and even more difficult to estimate the effectiveness of new inducements more in line with this liberalization process. These difficulties may be overcome by selecting - for the long term scenario - a starting point within the next decade which is in line with the best market studies currently available and by constructing the model for variations in operational stock world-wide on the basis of a Rayleigh distribution, adjusted for the market conditions defined in the short term, in order that the future contributions defined in the short term, in order that the future contribution of wind energy might come to equal that of hydro-electricity before the end of the next century. (author)

'Normal' markets, market imperfections and energy efficiency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanstad, A.H.; Howarth, R.B.

1994-01-01

The conventional distinction between 'economic' and 'engineering' approaches to energy analysis obscures key methodological issues concerning the measurement of the costs and benefits of policies to promote the adoption of energy-efficient technologies. The engineering approach is in fact based upon firm economic foundations: the principle of lifecycle cost minimization that arises directly from the theory of rational investment. Thus, evidence that so-called 'market barriers' impede the adoption of cost-effective energy-efficient technologies implies the existence of market failures as defined in the context of microeconomic theory. A widely held view that the engineering view lacks economic justification, is based on the fallacy that markets are 'normally' efficient. (author)

Simulation of Mechanical Processes in Gas Storage Caverns for Short-Term Energy Storage

Science.gov (United States)

Böttcher, Norbert; Nagel, Thomas; Kolditz, Olaf

2015-04-01

In recent years, Germany's energy management has started to be transferred from fossil fuels to renewable and sustainable energy carriers. Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power are subjected by fluctuations, thus the development and extension of energy storage capacities is a priority in German R&D programs. This work is a part of the ANGUS+ Project, funded by the federal ministry of education and research, which investigates the influence of subsurface energy storage on the underground. The utilization of subsurface salt caverns as a long-term storage reservoir for fossil fuels is a common method, since the construction of caverns in salt rock is inexpensive in comparison to solid rock formations due to solution mining. Another advantage of evaporate as host material is the self-healing behaviour of salt rock, thus the cavity can be assumed to be impermeable. In the framework of short-term energy storage (hours to days), caverns can be used as gas storage reservoirs for natural or artificial fuel gases, such as hydrogen, methane, or compressed air, where the operation pressures inside the caverns will fluctuate more frequently. This work investigates the influence of changing operation pressures at high frequencies on the stability of the host rock of gas storage caverns utilizing numerical models. Therefore, we developed a coupled Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical (THM) model based on the finite element method utilizing the open-source software platform OpenGeoSys. The salt behaviour is described by well-known constitutive material models which are capable of predicting creep, self-healing, and dilatancy processes. Our simulations include the thermodynamic behaviour of gas storage process, temperature development and distribution on the cavern boundary, the deformation of the cavern geometry, and the prediction of the dilatancy zone. Based on the numerical results, optimal operation modes can be found for individual caverns, so the risk of host rock damage

The development in energy consumption, price sensitivity and allocation of power; Utviklingen i stroemforbruket, prisfoelsomheten og stroemmarkedet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Halvorsen, Bente

2012-11-15

This report discusses the development in energy consumption in households, service industries, primary industries and other small industries, both in the short run (hour to hour, day by day) and over a longer period, back to the 1960. The report discusses the main driving forces behind this development, as well as the demand price sensitivity and its role in the allocation of power between customers and over time. The analysis shows that for the short-term fluctuations in consumption from hour to hour, the temperature of the main driver, while price changes have less influence. For the long-term trend, however, changes in relative energy prices are a key driver, along with population and income growth. Even if the short term price sensitivity is low for end-users, it may still have a big influence on the short-term clearance of the market (from hour to hour), as it affects the short term price sensitivity in the spot market. The long-term price elasticities in the retail markets is more important for determining consumption over a time period, and is important in allocating energy resources over time in the spot market, e.g. over the winter months. Empirical analyses show that the Norwegian demand responds to price changes, both in the short term in the spot market and in the longer term in the retail market. It takes a few weeks before the price signals from spot market affects the consumer prise for most end-users, but by then, most of the price signal has been transmitted. It also follows from the analysis that it is important to let prices vary between regions of the market in the event of scarcity, so customers in regions where shortages occur, have the incentive to change their demand. The faster these price signals affect consumer prices, the more efficient the market will be able to handle a tight power situation.(Author)

Energy policy and European utilities' strategy: Lessons from the liberalisation and privatisation of the energy sector in Romania

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haar, Laura N., E-mail: laura.n.haar@mbs.ac.u [University of Manchester, Manchester Business School, Booth Street West, Manchester M15 6PB (United Kingdom); Marinescu, Nicolae, E-mail: marinescu@unitbv.r [Transylvania University of Brasov, Faculty of Economic Sciences, 29 Eroilor Bd, Brasov 500 036 (Romania)

2011-05-15

In the context of energy sector reforms pursued by Romanian government since 1990s, we compare and contrast the market outcomes of European utilities' investment with the host government policy objectives. We begin with energy market reform in Romania and review governments' efforts to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and to gradually withdraw from the distribution and supply segments of electricity market. Subsequently, we illustrate the scope European utilities have had, market policy and design notwithstanding, for consolidating market power through regional dominance. We examine the extent to which these utilities have sought to enhance their positions through horizontal and vertical integration, counter to the EU plans for a competitive market structure. We find that the investments of European incumbents have not been resoundingly successful: although market entrance may have been justified on long-term strategic grounds, in the immediate term, segments acquired through competitive auctions have yielded modest regulated returns. Finally, we discuss the extent to which policy makers have achieved their goals. Although the short-term benefits of a competitive market structure have reached some consumers, a renewed interest in promoting 'national champions' reflect frustration with market mechanisms as a means of ensuring long-term strategic investments in the sector. - Research highlights: {yields} We analyze the European Utilities activities in Romania after market liberalization. {yields} We find government efforts to reform energy sector attracted foreign direct investment. {yields} We find utilities consolidated market power horizontally in Central European region. {yields} The short-term benefits of competitive forces contrast the weak returns by utilities. {yields} To encourage further investment, government should not promote national champions.

Green power: A renewable energy resources marketing plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, R.C.

1997-01-01

Green power is electricity generated from renewable energy sources such as power generated from the sun, the wind, the heat of the earth, and biomass. Green pricing is the marketing strategy to sell green power to customers who voluntarily pay a premium for it. Green pricing is evolving from the deregulation of the electric industry, the need for clean air, reflected in part as concern over global warming, and technology advances. The goal of the renewable energy marketing plan is to generate enough revenues for a utility to fund power purchase agreements (PPAs) with renewable energy developers or construct its own renewable facilities. Long-term, fixed price PPAs enable developers to obtain financing to construct new facilities, sometimes taking technological risks which a utility might not take otherwise. The marketing plan is built around different rate premiums for different categories of ratepayers, volunteer customer participation, customer participation recognition, and budget allocations between project costs and power marketing costs. Green prices are higher than those for conventional sources, particularly prices from natural gas fired plants. Natural gas is abundant relative to oil in price per British thermal unit (Btu). Green pricing can help bridge the gap between the current oversupply of gas and the time, not far off, when all petroleum prices will exceed those for renewable energy. The rapid implementation of green pricing is important. New marketing programs will bolster the growing demand for renewable energy evidenced in many national surveys thus decreasing the consumption of power now generated by burning hydrocarbons. This paper sets forth a framework to implement a green power marketing plan for renewable energy developers and utilities working together

An integrated energy policy for Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Tai-Yoo; Kim, Seung-Rae

1993-01-01

Economic theory defines a market failure when competitive markets cannot reach an equilibrium maximizing social welfare. One of its most typical examples has proved to be the energy market. Exhaustible energy resources provide the limits to economic growth, at least in the short term. Thus an energy policy for energy importing countries like Korea has been focused on minimizing the negative influences of external energy price shocks to the domestic economy. This study suggests one of the possible directions for an integrated energy policy which seeks to present a flow of policy rules which lead government policy to attain equilibrium, maximizing the national economic benefits by offsetting the market failure

Short-term variability of CYG X-1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oda, M.; Doi, K.; Ogawara, Y.; Takagishi, K.; Wada, M.

1975-01-01

The short-term X-ray variability distinguishes Cyg X-1, which is the most likely candidate of the black hole, from other X-ray sources. Present status of our knowledge on this short-term variation mainly from the Uhuru, the MIT and the GSFC observations is reviewed. The nature of impulsive variations which compose the time variation exceeding the statistical fluctuation is discussed. There are indications that the energy spectrum of large pulses is harder than the average spectrum or the large pulses are the characteristics of the hard component of the spectrum if it is composed of two, soft and hard, components. Features of the variations may be partly simulated by the superposition of random short-noise pulses with a fraction of a second duration. However, the autocorrelation analysis and the dynamic spectrum analysis indicate that the correlation lasts for several seconds and in the variation buried are some regularities which exhibit power concentrations in several frequency bands; 0.2 -- 0.3, 0.4 -- 0.5, 0.8, 1.2 -- 1.5 Hz. There are several possible interpretation of these results in terms of: e.g. a) a mixture of short-noise pulses with two or more constant durations, b) the shape of the basic shot-noise pulse, c) bunching of the pulses, d) superposition of wave-packets or temporal oscillations. But we have not yet reached any definite understandings in the nature of the variabilities. The sub-structure of the fluctuations on a time scale of milli-second suggested by two investigations is also discussed. (auth.)

What are the differences between long-term, short-term, and working memory?

Science.gov (United States)

Cowan, Nelson

2008-01-01

In the recent literature there has been considerable confusion about the three types of memory: long-term, short-term, and working memory. This chapter strives to reduce that confusion and makes up-to-date assessments of these types of memory. Long- and short-term memory could differ in two fundamental ways, with only short-term memory demonstrating (1) temporal decay and (2) chunk capacity limits. Both properties of short-term memory are still controversial but the current literature is rather encouraging regarding the existence of both decay and capacity limits. Working memory has been conceived and defined in three different, slightly discrepant ways: as short-term memory applied to cognitive tasks, as a multi-component system that holds and manipulates information in short-term memory, and as the use of attention to manage short-term memory. Regardless of the definition, there are some measures of memory in the short term that seem routine and do not correlate well with cognitive aptitudes and other measures (those usually identified with the term "working memory") that seem more attention demanding and do correlate well with these aptitudes. The evidence is evaluated and placed within a theoretical framework depicted in Fig. 1.

Clustering of short and long-term co-movements in international financial and commodity markets in wavelet domain

Science.gov (United States)

Lahmiri, Salim; Uddin, Gazi Salah; Bekiros, Stelios

2017-11-01

We propose a general framework for measuring short and long term dynamics in asset classes based on the wavelet presentation of clustering analysis. The empirical results show strong evidence of instability of the financial system aftermath of the global financial crisis. Indeed, both short and long-term dynamics have significantly changed after the global financial crisis. This study provides an interesting insights complex structure of global financial and economic system.

A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

2012-01-01

As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

Spot markets vs. long-term contracts - modelling tools for regional electricity generating utilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grohnheit, P.E.

1999-01-01

A properly organised market for electricity requires that some information will be available for all market participants. Also a range of generally available modelling tools are necessary. This paper describes a set of simple models based on published data for analyses of the long-term revenues of regional utilities with combined heat and power generation (CHP), who will operate a competitive international electricity market and a local heat market. The future revenues from trade on the spot market is analysed using a load curve model, in which marginal costs are calculated on the basis of short-term costs of the available units and chronological hourly variations in the demands for electricity and heat. Assumptions on prices, marginal costs and electricity generation by the different types of generating units are studied for selected types of local electricity generators. The long-term revenue requirements to be met by long-term contracts are analysed using a traditional techno-economic optimisation model focusing on technology choice and competition among technologies over 20.30 years. A possible conclusion from this discussion is that it is important for the economic and environmental efficiency of the electricity market that local or regional generators of CHP, who are able to react on price signals, do not conclude long-term contracts that include fixed time-of-day tariff for sale of electricity. Optimisation results for a CHP region (represented by the structure of the Danish electricity and CHP market in 1995) also indicates that a market for CO 2 tradable permits is unlikely to attract major non-fossil fuel technologies for electricity generation, e.g. wind power. (au)

Short-term marginal costs in French agriculture

OpenAIRE

Latruffe, Laure; LETORT, Elodie

2011-01-01

The paper investigates short-term marginal costs in French agriculture for field cropping, beef cattle, and dairy farms during the period 1995-2006. The multi-input multi-output Symmetric Generalised MacFadden cost function is used, with three variable inputs (crop-specific, animal-specific, energy costs), four outputs and three quasi-fixed inputs. Results indicate that marginal costs are on average lower for crop farms than for livestock samples. However, for crop farms, Common Agricultural ...

An analysis on the short-term sectoral competitiveness impact of carbon tax in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xin; Li Ji Feng; Zhang Yaxiong

2011-01-01

Market-based instruments, particularly carbon tax, have recently drawn the attention of Chinese government by their cost-effective contribution to the achievement of China's climate targets. Most of the recent policy proposals have focused on its long-term impact. However, particularly for policy makers, both long term and short term effects of carbon tax would be necessary when determining tax rates. We provided a detailed analysis of short-term impacts of carbon tax on sectoral competitiveness in this paper. We divided China's economy into 36 sectors, based on its 2007 input-output table, in order to examine the ratio of carbon tax added costs to sector GDP. We were thus able to determine the impact level of a carbon tax on each sector. We then divided the sectoral trade impact into domestic competitiveness with regards to foreign imported products and international competitiveness external to the Chinese domestic market. We found that a high tax level (100 yuan/t CO 2 ) may necessitate compensatory measures to certain highly affected industries, and that a low tax rate (10 yuan/t CO 2 ) would generate few competitiveness problems for all industries and may therefore be considered as an appropriate starting point. - Highlights: → We study short-term sectoral competitiveness impact of carbon tax in China. → For each sector, we study its carbon cost, GDP share and trade intensity. → A high rate (100 yuan/t CO 2 ) may require compensatory measures to certain industries. → A low rate (10 yuan/t CO 2 ) would generate few competitiveness problems.

Short-term impacts of air pollutants in Switzerland: Preliminary scenario calculations for selected Swiss energy systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S; Keller, J [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

1999-08-01

In the frame of the comprehensive assessment of Swiss energy systems, air quality simulations were performed by using a 3-dimensional photo-chemical dispersion model. The objective is to investigate the impacts of pollutants in Switzerland for future options of Swiss energy systems. Four scenarios were investigated: Base Case: simulations with the projected emissions for the year 2030, Scenario 1) all nuclear power plants were replaced by oil-driven combined cycle plants (CCP), Scenarios 2 to 4) traffic emissions were reduced in whole Switzerland as well as in the cities and on the highways separately. Changes in the pollutant concentrations and depositions, and the possible short-term impacts are discussed on the basis of exceedences of critical levels for plants and limits given to protect the public health. (author) 2 figs., 7 refs.

Renewable energies development: what contribution of the carbon market?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bordier, Cecile

2008-12-01

In the climate-energy package, the European Union has committed to achieve objectives differentiated by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and developing renewable energies. Part of the emissions reduction must be achieved through a common mechanism to all Member States: the European CO 2 trading market (EU ETS) covers about 40% of emissions of gas European greenhouse from five major industrial sectors, including power generation. The development of renewable energy is the responsibility of each member state. To meet its commitments in terms of renewable energy, each Member State may adopt economic incentives: tendering, purchase prices or green certificates. This Climate Report describes two national policies with different instruments: aid mechanism by prices in France and definition of quantitative targets in the UK. The author attempts to evaluate these policies for the production of renewable electricity in terms of cost per ton of carbon avoided to compare with the price of carbon quotas in the EU ETS. The results show that the cost of national incentive policies for renewable energy per ton of CO 2 avoided varies significantly from one country to another, but in both cases higher than the quota price on the European market. It is difficult to draw definitive conclusions on economic effectiveness of different policy instruments. The first phase of the European exchange of CO 2 quotas market has induced a stress relatively low, weighing mainly on the electricity generation sector. The allocations to the electricity sector have been reduced from 2008 and quotas will be auctioned from 2013 within the limits of an overall ceiling will decrease year by year. This increase in stress on emissions should play a key role in the deployment of CO 2 emission reduction solutions in this sector, including the development of renewable energies. The incentive mechanisms at the national level could complement the impact of the European carbon market by accelerating

European Electricity Markets in Crisis: Diagnostic and Way Forward

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roques, Fabien

2013-01-01

The European electricity industry is going through a profound crisis as several factors combine to create a challenging operating environment for thermal plants. The key issue is that the regulatory and market framework create a climate of deep policy and regulatory uncertainty which will hamper investments and will not deliver on the long term objectives of decarbonization and competitiveness of the European economy. This report analyses both the short and long term challenges for the European electricity markets, and highlights some directions for reform. The report has three main parts. The first part describes the current status quo and challenges associated with the long term decarbonization of the European economy: Section 1 sets the scene by describing the current challenges for the European electricity industry and the challenges associated with the long term decarbonization of the European economy; Section 2 quantifies the investment challenge for the electricity industry and shows how the current regulatory uncertainty undermines investments and will likely not deliver on the stated policy objectives; The second part of the report focusses on the 'extrinsic' issues which affect electricity markets: Section 3 reviews the wider context for electricity market liberalization, which calls for a rethink of the European energy policy framework, including the recent developments in global energy markets, as well as the impact of rising energy prices on economic competitiveness; Section 4 presents the distortive effects of support policies for low carbon technologies and the issues with the European carbon Trading Scheme; The third and last part of the report concentrates on the 'intrinsic issues' with electricity markets: Section 5 details the experience to date with European electricity markets liberalization, and highlights the achievements as well as the shortcomings of the liberalization and integration process; Section 6 dwells into the 'intrinsic issues

Market performance and distributional effects on renewable energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koutstaal, P.; Bijlsma, M.; Zwart, G.; Van Tilburg, X.; Ozdemir, O.

2009-08-01

A renewable obligation (RO) combined with tradable renewable energy certificates is a market-based instrument used to promote the production of electricity from renewable energy sources. A renewable obligation is an alternative for subsidies. A renewable obligation will only be an efficient instrument if certificate markets are efficient. This requires that there is no market power and no anti-competitive behaviour on the certificate market. If the current developments in Dutch renewable energy production continue, market power on a future renewable certificate market in the Netherlands will probably not be an issue, even if the RO should only rest on the retail market instead of on the whole electricity market. A renewable obligation will raise the retail price for consumers, thereby reducing consumer surplus. Simulations show that the retail electricity price increases with 30 euro per MWh to a level of 104 euro per MWh in case of a 30% renewable target. Consumer surplus is reduced with 19% compared to the baseline scenario. In contrast, a subsidy such as the Dutch SDE (Promoting Renewable Energy scheme or 'Stimulering Duurzame Energie') which is financed from the state budget has the effect to (slightly) lower the retail electricity price, thereby increasing consumer surplus. It should however be realised that the costs of the subsidy will indirectly affect electricity consumers through their tax payments.

The Demonstration of Short-Term Consolidation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jolicoeur, Pierre; Dell'Acqua, Roberto

1998-01-01

Results of seven experiments involving 112 college students or staff using a dual-task approach provide evidence that encoding information into short-term memory involves a distinct process termed short-term consolidation (STC). Results suggest that STC has limited capacity and that it requires central processing mechanisms. (SLD)

The regulated energy economy versus the free energy market - The West German experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liesen, K.; Schwarz, H.O.

1989-09-01

The overall good performance of the West German energy industry in terms of energy policy objectives such as security of supplies, competitiveness, efficient use of energy and environmental protection, is attributable to an energy policy based on the principles of the market economy and steady application of these same principles. Today, though, a debate, at times controversial, on whether more market influence or more government intervention is required is underway in West Germany; in view of the successes of energy policy and the balance struck between free enterprise and the government in the past, this debate has met with little understanding in some quarters. It is generally agreed, though, that the quality of the challenges energy policy and the energy industry in West Germany will confront in the future will remain essentially unchanged. West German energy policy will have to deal with: reestablishing a consensus on coal and nuclear power policy; achieving a high standard of environmental protection in the European Communities, and strengthening the position of the energy industry as efforts are made to get moves underway to create a single European market for energy underway. No fundamental change in the course of energy policy in the Federal Republic of Germany is needed to solve current energy policy issues or to preserve the underlying goals of this policy. An energy policy which continues to give priority where possible to market mechanisms as a means of adjustment and provides energy suppliers and users with a stable and reliable framework in which to operate, offers the best promise for meeting the challenges of the future. (author). 2 figs

Storm impacts on a high energy sandy beach system, northwest Ireland: short (event) to long term (decadal) behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew; O'Connor, Marianne

2017-04-01

Long-term monitoring of beach dynamics is an important element in risk prevention and management of both natural and human resources at the coast. The predicted intensification in storminess (frequency, duration and magnitude), partly associated with climate change, represents a pressing concern for coastal communities globally and has undoubtedly led to an improvement in available techniques and technologies for observation and analysis. Here we examine a high energy Atlantic beach system at Five Fingers strand (NW Ireland) to help understand hydrodynamic forcing on beach response under various wave energy scenarios. The system, which has been modally attuned to a large swell wave environment, periodically undergoes significant morphological changes over various spatial and temporal scales manifest in the development and movements of dynamic nearshore bars and a nearshore ebb-tide delta. A combination of field and laboratory techniques (GPS, Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) Instrumentation, Drone surveys) implemented from the shoreface to the beach, captures the response and evolution of the system over the short (event), medium (weeks to months) and long-term (multiyear) timescale. Numerical modelling of nearshore wave hydrodynamics (using SWAN wave simulation model) helps understanding wave forcing across shoreface area and is ran under a number of iterative time intervals. Here, we investigate the role of infrequent and sometimes extreme events in the system to understand the importance of clustering of storminess and the occurrence of single high-magnitude storm events that perturb the inlet-beach system and thus induce key morphodynamic changes. Preliminary results show that ultimately the configuration of the ebb-tide channel influences the geomorphic response of the system. In the short term, a storm induced erosion of the shoreface is observed, which also appears to lead to changes in the ebb-tide channel, and ultimately the welding of a nearshore bar

Altered Appetite-Mediating Hormone Concentrations Precede Compensatory Overeating After Severe, Short-Term Energy Deprivation in Healthy Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Kristie L; Scisco, Jenna L; Smith, Tracey J; Young, Andrew J; Montain, Scott J; Price, Lori Lyn; Lieberman, Harris R; Karl, J Philip

2016-02-01

Adaptive responses of appetite-mediating hormones to negative energy balance are thought to contribute to a counterregulatory response that drives weight regain, but they have not been studied while controlling for reduced diet volume. In this secondary analysis, we aimed to determine the effects of short-term, severe energy deprivation (ED) on appetite and appetite-mediating hormone concentrations. Twenty-one adults with a mean ± SD age of 21 ± 3 y and body mass index of 25 ± 3 kg/m(2) consumed isovolumetric diets provided over separate 48-h periods while increasing habitual energy expenditure by 1683 ± 329 kcal/d through light- and moderate-intensity exercise. Energy intake was matched to energy expenditure to maintain energy balance (EB) (-44 ± 92 kcal/d) or was overeating, suggesting that in adults without obesity, altered sensitivity to appetite-mediating hormones may contribute to an adaptive counterregulatory response during the initial stages of negative EB. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01603550. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Pollution Under Environmental Regulation in Energy Markets

CERN Document Server

Gullì, Francesco

2013-01-01

Pollution Under Environmental Regulation in Energy Markets provides a study of environmental regulation when energy markets are imperfectly competitive. This theoretical treatment focuses on three relevant cases of energy markets. First, the residential space heating sector where hybrid regulation such as taxation and emissions trading together are possible. Second, the electricity market where transactions are organized in the form of multi-period auctions. Third, namely natural gas (input) and electricity (output) markets where there is combined imperfect competition in vertical related energy markets.   The development of free or low carbon technologies supported by energy policies, aiming at increasing security of supply, is also explored whilst considering competition policies that reduce market power in energy markets thus improving market efficiency. Pollution Under Environmental Regulation in Energy Markets discusses the key issues of whether imperfect competition can lessen the ability of environmen...

Marketing in the long-term care continuum.

Science.gov (United States)

Laurence, J Nathan; Kash, Bita A

2010-04-01

Today, long-term care facilities are composed of independent, assisted living, and skilled nursing facilities along with many variations of those themes in between. The clientele for these various types of facilities differ because of the level of care the facility provides as well as the amenities long-term care consumers are looking for. However, there many similarities and common approaches to how reaching the target audience through effective marketing activities. Knowing who the target audience is, how to reach them, and how to communicate with them will serve any facility well in this competitive market. Developing marketing strategies for long-term care settings is as important as understanding what elements of care can be marketed individually as a niche market. Determining the market base for a facility is equally crucial since the target populations differ among the three types of facilities. By reviewing current marketing articles and applying marketing practices, we have crafted some general principles for which each facility type can learn from. Finally, we will discuss the types of marketing and how they related to the spectrum of long-term care facilities.

Market introduction of renewable energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

On 11 and 12 November 1997 the VDI Society for Energy Technology (VDI-GET) held a congress in Neuss on the ''Market introduction of renewable energy technologies'' The focal topics of the congress were as follows: market analyses for renewable energy technologies, the development of markets at home and abroad, and the framework conditions governing market introduction. Specifically it dealt with the market effects of national and international introduction measures, promotion programmes and their efficiency, the legal framework conditions governing market introduction, advanced and supplementary training, market-oriented research (e.g., for cost reduction), and improved marketing [de

Supply security and short-run capacity markets for electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Creti, Anna; Fabra, Natalia

2007-01-01

The creation of electricity markets has raised the fundamental question as to whether markets create the right incentives for the provision of the reserves needed to maintain supply security in the short-run, or whether some form of regulation is required. In some states in the US, electricity distributors have been made responsible for providing such reserves by contracting capacity in excess of their forecasted peak demand. The so-called Installed Capacity Markets provide one means of contracting reserves, and are the subject of this paper. Under monopoly as well as under perfect competition, we identify firms' short-run opportunity costs of committing resources in the capacity market and the costs of inducing full capacity commitment. The long-run investment problem is not considered. From a welfare viewpoint, we also compare the desirability of providing reserves either through capacity markets or through the demand side (i.e. power curtailments). At the optimum, capacity obligations equal peak demand (plus expected outages) and the capacity deficiency rate (which serves as a price cap) is set at firms' opportunity costs of providing full capacity commitment. (Author)

Economically efficient energy generation and energy utilization: Potentials as well as effects in terms of energy, ecology, economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masuhr, K.P.

1987-01-01

As the electric power industry is closely interlaced with the overall power supply system of the country, and especially with the heat market, a study into the impacts of an abandonment of nuclear power is necessary in order to be able to assess the situation in the energy sector at large. The report in hand summarizes the methodology adopted and the frame conditions taken as a basis. The contrast scenario without nuclear energy is explained and interpreted in terms of its effects on the energy market, the economy and the environment. (DG) [de

What are the differences between long-term, short-term, and working memory?

OpenAIRE

Cowan, Nelson

2008-01-01

In the recent literature there has been considerable confusion about the three types of memory: long-term, short-term, and working memory. This chapter strives to reduce that confusion and makes up-to-date assessments of these types of memory. Long- and short-term memory could differ in two fundamental ways, with only short-term memory demonstrating (1) temporal decay and (2) chunk capacity limits. Both properties of short-term memory are still controversial but the current literature is rath...

Essays on market design and strategic behaviour in energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lorenczik, Stefan

2017-01-01

The thesis at hand consists of four essays which are divided into two parts. In the first part, consisting of the first two essays, market design issues in electricity markets are discussed. More precisely, it deals with concerns regarding security of supply: First, the concerns regarding the availability of sufficient flexibility to cope with intermittent renewable energy electricity generation. And second, the consequences of insufficient investments signals in energy only markets in interconnected electricity markets. Part two deals with strategic behaviour in spatial natural resource markets. Strategic behaviour and the exertion of market power have always been a matter of concern in energy markets, especially in natural resource markets. The exertion of market power can result in deadweight losses - regulatory bodies try to address this by market regulations aiming for a welfare maximising market outcome. The first problem is to detect collusive behaviour as available data is frequently limited. The second question is how regulatory decisions may influence the market outcome. Both topics are investigated by using the example of the international metallurgical coal market.

Essays on market design and strategic behaviour in energy markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lorenczik, Stefan

2017-11-13

The thesis at hand consists of four essays which are divided into two parts. In the first part, consisting of the first two essays, market design issues in electricity markets are discussed. More precisely, it deals with concerns regarding security of supply: First, the concerns regarding the availability of sufficient flexibility to cope with intermittent renewable energy electricity generation. And second, the consequences of insufficient investments signals in energy only markets in interconnected electricity markets. Part two deals with strategic behaviour in spatial natural resource markets. Strategic behaviour and the exertion of market power have always been a matter of concern in energy markets, especially in natural resource markets. The exertion of market power can result in deadweight losses - regulatory bodies try to address this by market regulations aiming for a welfare maximising market outcome. The first problem is to detect collusive behaviour as available data is frequently limited. The second question is how regulatory decisions may influence the market outcome. Both topics are investigated by using the example of the international metallurgical coal market.

Short-Term Multiple Forecasting of Electric Energy Loads for Sustainable Demand Planning in Smart Grids for Smart Homes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adeshina Y. Alani

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Energy consumption in the form of fuel or electricity is ubiquitous globally. Among energy types, electricity is crucial to human life in terms of cooking, warming and cooling of shelters, powering of electronic devices as well as commercial and industrial operations. Users of electronic devices sometimes consume fluctuating amounts of electricity generated from smart-grid infrastructure owned by the government or private investors. However, frequent imbalance is noticed between the demand and supply of electricity, hence effective planning is required to facilitate its distribution among consumers. Such effective planning is stimulated by the need to predict future consumption within a short period. Although several interesting classical techniques have been used for such predictions, they still require improvement for the purpose of reducing significant predictive errors when used for short-term load forecasting. This research develops a near-zero cooperative probabilistic scenario analysis and decision tree (PSA-DT model to address the lacuna of enormous predictive error faced by the state-of-the-art models. The PSA-DT is based on a probabilistic technique in view of the uncertain nature of electricity consumption, complemented by a DT to reinforce the collaboration of the two techniques. Based on detailed experimental analytics on residential, commercial and industrial data loads, the PSA-DT model outperforms the state-of-the-art models in terms of accuracy to a near-zero error rate. This implies that its deployment for electricity demand planning will be of great benefit to various smart-grid operators and homes.

Landfill gas for energy utilisation. A market strategy for Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-05-01

The Biogas and Landfill Gas Marketing Strategy Group was set up with the objective to advise EU-DG 17 (THERMIE/OPET) on the dissemination strategies for biogas and landfill gas (LFG), a subsector of the Renewable Energy Sector (RES). The Marketing Strategy Group has identified market barriers and users' needs in the biogas and LFG subsector. Subsequently, the group evaluated successful instruments/methods to overcome these market barriers and to satisfy the users' needs. The group investigated the feasibility of transposing these instruments/success stories to other countries. The work of the Marketing Strategy Group resulted in proposals for future dissemination of biogas and LFG technology. After a short introduction into LFG technology and the LFG market, this document describes barriers to landfill gas technology dissemination and gives some examples about how to overcome them. This results in recommendations on a strategy for dissemination of LFG technology and expanding LFG markets. The document is mainly based on experience gained in the United Kingdom, Italy and the Netherlands

The 'Verbund' main load-dispatchingcentre - in the area of tension between physics, environment and market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hebenstreit, K.

2016-01-01

The main load-dispatchingcentre of Verbund is the interface between the power stations and the market. The short-term use of the VERBUND power plants is planned, optimized and controlled around the clock, as well as the management of the reservoirs. The rain falls from the sky, the wind blows when it wants, and the sun shines unstable and uninfluenceable. These irrefutable facts are the key drivers of the energy transition, because a system based on renewable energies has to be according to these situations. This is not an easy task for an industry, where production and consumption must always be balanced as the power system has to be safe, affordable and environmentally compatible. The changed market accompanies the VERBUND Company in its daily work, for example in the electricity trade, which is devoted to the optimal marketing of its production. The increasing share of renewable energies in Europe is affecting market activity more and more. The spot market and especially short-term intraday trading, are gaining momentum. Since the start of liberalization, VERBUND's experts have used market standards to optimize the use of power plants based on energy and meteorological know-how. (rössner) [de

Norway in a liberalized European energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aune, Finn Roar; Golombek, Rolf; Rosendahl, Knut Einar; Kittelsen, Sverre A.C.

2000-01-01

The authors study the short-term effects of a comprehensive liberalization of the gas and power markets in Europe. The analysis is based on a statically applied general equilibrium model which gives an overall and consistent treatment of the energy markets in Europe. The model preserves the structural features in the production, transport and consumption of gas and electricity in Europe, as well as the new competitive situation arising from the liberalization. It is found that the liberalization leads to a strong fall in the price of electricity. The fall in price reflects increased competition and that idle capacity in the power sector is used to increase the production of electricity. In comparison with the real observations in 1996 (the basis year of the model) the price to the end-user is cut in half. The liberalization also leads to a fall in the price of gas. The price fall reflects in part increased competition, in part the fact that falling prise of electricity reduces the demand for gas. However, the price reduction (in per cent) is not as great as for electricity. The model is also used to study the effects in Norway of increased gas production when the gas is either used in increased gas power production in Norway, or is exported. The main conclusion is that (1) the total emission of carbon dioxide goes down in Western Europe, (2) the reduction is greatest if the gas is burned as gas power in Norway

Investment with incomplete markets for risk: The need for long-term contracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maere d’Aertrycke, Gauthier de; Ehrenmann, Andreas; Smeers, Yves

2017-01-01

Barring subsidies, investment in the power generation sector has come to an almost complete halt in the restructured European power sector. Market and regulatory failures such as the well known missing money (see )) but also normal market features such as risk, possibly also affected by market failures like market incompleteness are mentioned as common causes for the situation. This paper discusses incomplete risk trading and its impact on investment. The analysis applies computable stochastic equilibrium models on a simple market model of the Energy Only type. The paper first compares the cases of complete and fully incomplete markets (full risk trading and no risk trading). It continues by testing the impact of different risk trading contracts on both welfare and investment. We successively consider Contracts for Difference, Reliability Options with and without physical back up that we add to our Energy Only market model. We test the impact of market liquidity on the results. Finally, we compare these methods to a Forward Capacity Market that we also add to the energy only model. We complete the paper by interpretation of these results in terms of hurdle rate implied by these risk-trading situations. - Highlights: • Electricity market designs are discussed based on simulations reflecting risk aversion. • If financial markets are liquid then forward contracts can improve welfare substantially. • If markets cannot provide liquidity, then the welfare improvement is strongly diminished. • Capacity markets can serve as an alternative to contracts.

Smart market. From smart grid to the intelligent energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aichele, Christian; Doleski, Oliver D.

2014-01-01

Dare more market. - The design of this postulate provides an important contribution to the success of the German energy transition. The Bundesnetzagentur has shown with its highly regarded benchmark paper on smart grids and markets leads the way towards more market in the energy sector. The therein required differentiation in a network and market sphere contributes to greater transparency on the consumer side and enables a gid releaving shift in energy consumption. The book focuses on actors and roles in the modified market circumstances as well as components and products of a future Smart Markets. Finally, to the reader concrete business models are offered. Authors from science and practice give in this book answers on how the interaction of Smart Grid and Smart Market works. [de

Liberalisation of the Dutch energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cace, J.; Zijlstra, G. J.

2003-01-01

The process of liberalisation of the Dutch energy market started in 1998 and will be completed in 2004 by opening the energy market to households and small enterprises. The fundaments of the open market are determined by the Electricity Law from 1998 and the Gas Law from 2000. The green electricity market was opened in July 2001 as a part of the environment protection package. A number of additional legal regulations, codes, procedures and agreements were developed in order to guarantee equal opportunities for all participants, create the market transparency, guarantee the continuity of supply and protect the consumer. These documents were developed by the 'Platform Versnelling Energieliberalisering', PVE (Platform for the acceleration of the liberalisation process). All relevant players from the energy market, including the major consumers, are represented in this advisory body. In the new market situation, the grid operators carry the essential responsibilities within the energy supply system. They are providing the technical security, registering the energy exchange through their grid and are generating the billing and the balance control information for suppliers and transport system operators respectively. The suppliers are the primary contact for the consumers. The complexity of the energy market liberalisation is aggravated by the difference in fundamental choices for the electricity and gas market. Electricity market is based on regulated third party access (TPA) and gas market is based on negotiated TPA. A lack of awareness of the necessity of an adequate information system appeared to be the most the most significant hurdle in establishing the open energy market. (author)

Short-term memory across eye blinks.

Science.gov (United States)

Irwin, David E

2014-01-01

The effect of eye blinks on short-term memory was examined in two experiments. On each trial, participants viewed an initial display of coloured, oriented lines, then after a retention interval they viewed a test display that was either identical or different by one feature. Participants kept their eyes open throughout the retention interval on some blocks of trials, whereas on others they made a single eye blink. Accuracy was measured as a function of the number of items in the display to determine the capacity of short-term memory on blink and no-blink trials. In separate blocks of trials participants were instructed to remember colour only, orientation only, or both colour and orientation. Eye blinks reduced short-term memory capacity by approximately 0.6-0.8 items for both feature and conjunction stimuli. A third, control, experiment showed that a button press during the retention interval had no effect on short-term memory capacity, indicating that the effect of an eye blink was not due to general motoric dual-task interference. Eye blinks might instead reduce short-term memory capacity by interfering with attention-based rehearsal processes.

Short-term memory and dual task performance

Science.gov (United States)

Regan, J. E.

1982-01-01

Two hypotheses concerning the way in which short-term memory interacts with another task in a dual task situation are considered. It is noted that when two tasks are combined, the activity of controlling and organizing performance on both tasks simultaneously may compete with either task for a resource; this resource may be space in a central mechanism or general processing capacity or it may be some task-specific resource. If a special relationship exists between short-term memory and control, especially if there is an identity relationship between short-term and a central controlling mechanism, then short-term memory performance should show a decrement in a dual task situation. Even if short-term memory does not have any particular identity with a controlling mechanism, but both tasks draw on some common resource or resources, then a tradeoff between the two tasks in allocating resources is possible and could be reflected in performance. The persistent concurrence cost in memory performance in these experiments suggests that short-term memory may have a unique status in the information processing system.

Bundling and mergers in energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granier, Laurent; Podesta, Marion

2010-01-01

Does bundling trigger mergers in energy industries? We observe mergers between firms belonging to various energy markets, for instance between gas and electricity providers. These mergers enable firms to bundle. We consider two horizontally differentiated markets. In this framework, we show that bundling strategies in energy markets create incentives to form multi-market firms in order to supply bi-energy packages. Moreover, we find that this type of merger is detrimental to social welfare. (author)

Short-term trends in the gas industry - Panorama 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

In a context of high investment costs and rising energy prices, and recurring unseasonably warm temperatures in recent years, the growth of natural gas demand is slowing. On the supply side, and on the demand side too, new trends are emerging, with potentially powerful impact on the short-and long-term development of the industry

Quantifying complexity of financial short-term time series by composite multiscale entropy measure

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun

2015-05-01

It is significant to study the complexity of financial time series since the financial market is a complex evolved dynamic system. Multiscale entropy is a prevailing method used to quantify the complexity of a time series. Due to its less reliability of entropy estimation for short-term time series at large time scales, a modification method, the composite multiscale entropy, is applied to the financial market. To qualify its effectiveness, its applications in the synthetic white noise and 1 / f noise with different data lengths are reproduced first in the present paper. Then it is introduced for the first time to make a reliability test with two Chinese stock indices. After conducting on short-time return series, the CMSE method shows the advantages in reducing deviations of entropy estimation and demonstrates more stable and reliable results when compared with the conventional MSE algorithm. Finally, the composite multiscale entropy of six important stock indices from the world financial markets is investigated, and some useful and interesting empirical results are obtained.

Effective electrical energy policies in terms of DSM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, Hyunah

2010-09-15

This paper investigates how well energy policies are adopted and operated. In terms of DSM or the Demand Side Management, ways of modifying energy demand are introduced. Also their effects are showed. Furthermore future plans of DSM are illustrated shortly.

Market survey of the state of affairs in the Dutch energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-09-01

The aim of this market survey: to get insight in the knowledge, perception and behavior of consumers in relation to the energy market; to offer insight in developments in aforementioned aspects; to get insight in the effectiveness of the actions of the Dutch Office of Energy Regulation. Derived purposes/functions of the research include: an own measuring instrument for the Office of Energy Regulation, which makes them less dependent on other parties for obtaining data on the energy market; enabling periodical contact with the consumer and sounding out the mood on the energy market. The target can be translated into the following research questions: To what extent are consumers informed about the energy market, or to what extent do they know how to access relevant information?; To what extent is the energy market transparent in the eyes of the consumer?; How much confidence do consumers have in the energy market?; How do people judge the service provision of the energy companies?. [nl

Supplementing an energy adequate, higher protein diet with protein does not enhance fat-free mass restoration after short-term severe negative energy balance.

Science.gov (United States)

Berryman, C E; Sepowitz, J J; McClung, H L; Lieberman, H R; Farina, E K; McClung, J P; Ferrando, A A; Pasiakos, S M

2017-06-01

Negative energy balance during military operations can be severe and result in significant reductions in fat-free mass (FFM). Consuming supplemental high-quality protein following such military operations may accelerate restoration of FFM. Body composition (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry) and whole body protein turnover (single-pool [ 15 N]alanine method) were determined before (PRE) and after 7 days (POST) of severe negative energy balance during military training in 63 male US Marines (means ± SD, 25 ± 3 yr, 84 ± 9 kg). After POST measures were collected, volunteers were randomized to receive higher protein (HIGH: 1,103 kcal/day, 133 g protein/day), moderate protein (MOD: 974 kcal/day, 84 g protein/day), or carbohydrate-based low protein control (CON: 1,042 kcal/day, 7 g protein/day) supplements, in addition to a self-selected, ad libitum diet, for the 27-day intervention (REFED). Measurements were repeated POST-REFED. POST total body mass (TBM; -5.8 ± 1.0 kg, -7.0%), FFM (-3.1 ± 1.6 kg, -4.7%), and net protein balance (-1.7 ± 1.1 g protein·kg -1 ·day -1 ) were lower and proteolysis (1.1 ± 1.9 g protein·kg -1 ·day -1 ) was higher compared with PRE ( P energy (4,498 ± 725 kcal/day). All volunteers, independent of group assignment, achieved positive net protein balance (0.4 ± 1.0 g protein·kg -1 ·day -1 ) and gained TBM (5.9 ± 1.7 kg, 7.8%) and FFM (3.6 ± 1.8 kg, 5.7%) POST-REFED compared with POST ( P energy-adequate, higher protein diets with additional protein may not be necessary to restore FFM after short-term severe negative energy balance. NEW & NOTEWORTHY This article demonstrates 1 ) the majority of physiological decrements incurred during military training (e.g., total and fat-free mass loss), with the exception of net protein balance, resolve and return to pretraining values after 27 days and 2 ) protein supplementation, in addition to an ad libitum, higher protein (~2.0 g·kg -1 ·day -1 ), energy adequate diet, is not necessary to

The solar energy markets. Upheavals of the sector and new opportunities for enterprises

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

This study proposes an analytical overview of the solar energy markets. It analyses the present environment (2010-2011): energetic context (French energy policy, planning, emissions, production), overview of the building sector (energy challenges, evolution of the building stock, focus on housing heating equipment), and regulatory context. The second part proposes an analysis of market evolutions between 2005 and 2010 and by 2015 for the photovoltaic sector and for the thermal solar sector. It reports an analysis of market reconfiguration among actors. It analyses the market structure in terms of existing actors by presenting data (key figures, production capacity, location, activities, highlights, strategy, and so on) for the main operators present on the French market of solar energies (manufacturers, installers, operators). Sheets are proposed with economic and financial data for 86 operators

Market potential for non-electric applications of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

The objective of this report is to assess the market potential for the non-electric applications of nuclear energy in the near (before 2020) and long (2020-2050) terms. The main non-electric applications are defined here as district heating, desalination (of sea, brackish and waste water), industrial heat supply, ship propulsion and the energy supply for spacecraft. This report is principally devoted to these applications, although a less detailed assessment of some innovative applications (e.g. hydrogen production and coal gasification) is also provided. While the technical details of these applications are covered briefly, emphasis is placed on the economic and other factors that may promote or hinder the penetration of the nuclear option into the market for non-electric energy services. The report is intentionally targeted towards expected demands. It is for this reason that its sections are structured by demand categories and not according to possible reactor types. At the same time, the orientation on the demand side can result in overlaps at the supply side, because the same nuclear reactor can often serve more than one type of demand. Such cases are noted as appropriate. Each section characterizes a specific non-electric application in terms of its market size, its prospects for nuclear technologies and the economic competitiveness of the technologies

Short term clearing of capacity markets : an alternative approach to capacity pricing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sadeghi, Ariobarzan; Torbaghan, Shahab Shariat; Gibescu, Madeleine

2017-01-01

In the presence of increasing penetration from renewable energy sources, several control areas in Europe and the US have introduced Capacity Remuneration Mechanisms (CRMs) to ensure sufficient investment in firm electricity generation capacity. However, due to their long-term focus, these mechanisms

Niche energy markets in rural areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walsh, M.; McCarthy, S.

1996-01-01

The objective of this project is the development of a standard methodology for integrating non-food crops in rural areas with niche energy markets. This has involved a number of steps including (i) identification of 3 niche markets for energy crops which are of common interest to the partners, (ii) application of the standard costing methodology to investigate these three niche markets and (iii) comparison of the results from this work in three workshops (one for each market). Three tightly defined niche markets were identified; these were chosen following an examination of the national energy marekts in each of the partners countries (Ireland, Germany, Netherlands, UK, Greece and Portugal). This paper gives an overview of the national energy markets which were examined. The three niche markets are introduced and the reasons for their selection given. The application of the methodology to each of the niche markets is presented along with the conclusions of the partners regarding the niche markets. (Author)

From probabilistic forecasts to statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd

2009-01-01

on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. However, this additional information may be paramount for a large class of time-dependent and multistage decision-making problems, e.g. optimal operation of combined wind-storage systems or multiple-market trading with different gate closures......Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with highly valuable information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform....... This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits the generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind generation that accounts for both the interdependence structure of prediction errors and the predictive distributions of wind power production. The method is based on the conversion...

Natural gas market assessment. Natural gas supply, western Canada: Recent developments (1982-1992), [and] short-term deliverability outlook (1993-1996)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-11-01

A review is presented of the evolution of gas supply from western Canada over the last ten years and a short-term forecast of gas deliverability. To illustrate the changed supply conditions, selected trends and market developments are summarized, including trends in excess deliverability, changes in reserves, the regional distribution of cumulative production, the pace of tieing-in of previously discovered pools for production, the expansion in deliverability from gas storage reservoirs, and recent increases in drilling activity. On the basis of analyses and observations, it is concluded that estimated productive capacity is likely to exceed pipeline capacity on a peak-day basis by a narrow margin over 1993-96. Increasing deliverability from gas storage reservoirs located in the producing provinces is an important factor in handling peak day requirements. From time to time, high demand due to extreme weather conditions could result in pronounced tightness and price fluctuations similar to those seen in winter 1992/93. A strong economic recovery could also result in market tightness, depending on the speed and size of supply response. The growing estimates of resource potential in the western Canada sedimentary basin provide an encouraging indication of the availability of future supply. 29 figs., 3 tabs

The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fleming, J.; Ostdiek, B. [Jones Graduate School of Management, Rice University, MS 531, P.O. Box 1892 Houston, TX (United States)

1999-04-01

We examine the effects of energy derivatives trading on the crude oil market. There is a common public and regulatory perception that derivative securities increase volatility and can have a destabilizing effect on the underlying market. Consistent with this view, we find an abnormal increase in volatility for three consecutive weeks following the introduction of NYMEX crude oil futures. While there is also evidence of a longer-term volatility increase, this is likely due to exogenous factors, such as the continuing deregulation of the energy markets. Subsequent introductions of crude oil options and derivatives on other energy commodities have no effect on crude oil volatility. We also examine the effects of derivatives trading on the depth and liquidity of the crude oil market. This analysis reveals a strong inverse relation between the open interest in crude oil futures and spot market volatility. Specifically, when open interest is greater, the volatility shock associated with a given unexpected increase in volume is much smaller. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, J.; Ostdiek, B.

1999-01-01

We examine the effects of energy derivatives trading on the crude oil market. There is a common public and regulatory perception that derivative securities increase volatility and can have a destabilizing effect on the underlying market. Consistent with this view, we find an abnormal increase in volatility for three consecutive weeks following the introduction of NYMEX crude oil futures. While there is also evidence of a longer-term volatility increase, this is likely due to exogenous factors, such as the continuing deregulation of the energy markets. Subsequent introductions of crude oil options and derivatives on other energy commodities have no effect on crude oil volatility. We also examine the effects of derivatives trading on the depth and liquidity of the crude oil market. This analysis reveals a strong inverse relation between the open interest in crude oil futures and spot market volatility. Specifically, when open interest is greater, the volatility shock associated with a given unexpected increase in volume is much smaller. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013: Market Trends and Projections to 2018

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-06-01

The global oil market will undergo sweeping changes over the next five years. The 2013 Medium-Term Oil Market Report evaluates the impact of these changes on the global oil system by 2018 based on all that we know today – current expectations of economic growth, existing or announced policies and regulations, commercially proven technologies, field decline rates, investment programmes (upstream, midstream and downstream), etc. The five-year forecast period corresponds to the length of the typical investment cycle and as such is critical to policymakers and market participants. This Report shows, in detailed but concise terms, why the ongoing North American hydrocarbon revolution is a ''game changer''. The region’s expected contribution to supply growth, however impressive, is only part of the story: Crude quality, infrastructure requirements, current regulations, and the potential for replication elsewhere are bound to spark a chain reaction that will leave few links in the global oil supply chain unaffected. While North America is expected to lead medium-term supply growth, the East-of- Suez region is in the lead on the demand side. Non-OECD oil demand, led by Asia and the Middle East, looks set to overtake the OECD for the first time as early as 2Q13 and will widen its lead afterwards. Non-OECD economies are already home to over half global refining capacity. With that share only expected to grow by 2018, the non-OECD region will be firmly entrenched as the world’s largest crude importer. These and other changes are carefully laid out in this Report, which also examines recent and future changes in global oil storage, shifts in OPEC production capacity and crude and product trade, and the consequences of the ongoing refinery construction boom in emerging markets and developing economies. It is required reading for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil

Solar Renewable Energy Certificate (SREC) Markets: Status and Trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bird, L.; Heeter, J.; Kreycik, C.

2011-11-01

This paper examines experience in solar renewable energy certificate (SREC) markets in the United States. It describes how SREC markets function--key policy design provisions, eligible technologies, state and regional eligibility rules, solar alternative compliance payments, measurement and verification methods, long-term contracting provisions, and rate caps. It also examines the trends of SREC markets--trading volumes, sourcing trends, trends in the size of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems driven by these markets, and trends in price and compliance. Throughout, the paper explores key issues and challenges facing SREC markets and attempts by policymakers to address some of these market barriers. Data and information presented in this report are derived from SREC tracking systems, brokers and auctions, published reports, and information gleaned from market participants and interviews with state regulators responsible for SREC market implementation. The last section summarizes key findings.

Short-term incentive schemes for hospital managers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucas Malambe

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Orientation: Short-term incentives, considered to be an extrinsic motivation, are commonly used to motivate performance. This study explored hospital managers’ perceptions of short term incentives in maximising performance and retention. Research purpose: The study explored the experiences, views and perceptions of private hospital managers in South Africa regarding the use of short-term incentives to maximise performance and retention, as well as the applicability of the findings to public hospitals. Motivation for the study: Whilst there is an established link between performance reward schemes and organisational performance, there is little understanding of the effects of short term incentives on the performance and retention of hospital managers within the South African context. Research design, approach, and method: The study used a qualitative research design: interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 19 hospital managers, and a thematic content analysis was performed. Main findings: Short-term incentives may not be the primary motivator for hospital managers, but they do play a critical role in sustaining motivation. Participants indicated that these schemes could also be applicable to public hospitals. Practical/managerial implications: Hospital managers are inclined to be more motivated by intrinsic than extrinsic factors. However, hospital managers (as middle managers also seem to be motivated by short-term incentives. A combination of intrinsic and extrinsic motivators should thus be used to maximise performance and retention. Contribution/value-add: Whilst the study sought to explore hospital managers’ perceptions of short-term incentives, it also found that an adequate balance between internal and external motivators is key to implementing an effective short-term incentive scheme.

Short-Term Intercultural Psychotherapy: Ethnographic Inquiry

Science.gov (United States)

Seeley, Karen M.

2004-01-01

This article examines the challenges specific to short-term intercultural treatments and recently developed approaches to intercultural treatments based on notions of cultural knowledge and cultural competence. The article introduces alternative approaches to short-term intercultural treatments based on ethnographic inquiry adapted for clinical…

Why do short term workers have high mortality?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kolstad, Henrik; Olsen, Jørn

1999-01-01

or violence, the rate ratios for short term employment were 2.30 (95% Cl 1.74-3.06) and 1.86 (95% Cl 1.35-2.56), respectively. An unhealthy lifestyle may also be a determinant of short term employment. While it is possible in principle to adjust for lifestyle factors if proper data are collected, the health......Increased mortality is often reported among workers in short term employment. This may indicate either a health-related selection process or the presence of different lifestyle or social conditions among short term workers. The authors studied these two aspects of short term employment among 16...

Northeast Solar Energy Market Coalition (NESEMC)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rabago, Karl R. [Pace Energy and Climate Center Pace University School of Law

2018-03-31

The Northeast Solar Energy Market Coalition (NESEMC) brought together solar energy business associations and other stakeholders in the Northeast to harmonize regional solar energy policy and advance the solar energy market. The Coalition was managed by the Pace Energy and Climate Center, a project of the Pace University Elisabeth Haub School of Law. The NESEMC was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative as a cooperative agreement through 2017 as part of Solar Market Pathways.

The internal energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-01-01

The briefs compile the results of the studies the Commission worked out on the subject on the basis of experiences gained on its own part, on the part of the government and on the part of the market. The briefs are based on the schematic inventory annexed which for each energy sector points out the different existing or potential obstacles to a common energy market the most comprehensive and transparent way possible. Step by step part one and part two discuss the general problems connected with the integration of energy into the internal market, priorities which according to the Commission should be investigated into, and guidelines for such investigations. (orig./UA) [de

Long-term cost targets for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.H.; McDonald, A.

2004-01-01

In 2000 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) began the International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) to help guide nuclear R and D strategies targeted on anticipated mid-century energy system needs. One part of INPRO seeks to develop cost targets for new designs to be competitive in mid-century markets. The starting point was the 40 scenarios of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This paper summarizes four of the SRES scenarios, one from each of the four SRES scenario families. It discusses their implications for nuclear energy, including cost targets, and develops for each an 'aggressive nuclear' variant. The aggressive nuclear variants estimate the potential market for nuclear energy if, by improving faster than assumed by the SRES authors, nuclear energy can make inroads into vulnerable market shares projected for its competitors. In addition to projected demands for nuclear generated electricity, hydrogen and heat, the aggressive variants include prospective demand for nuclear desalination and use in upgrading fossil fuels. The paper then presents learning rates and implied cost targets consistent with the aggressive nuclear variants of the SRES scenarios. One provocative initial result is that many of the scenarios with substantial nuclear expansion do not seem to require big reductions in nuclear investment costs. One interpretation discussed at the end of the paper highlights the difference between cost reductions consistent with long-term energy system optimization based on perfect foresight, and cost reductions necessary to attract private investment in today's 'deregulating' and uncertain energy markets. (orig.)

Long-term dynamics of investment decisions in electricity markets with variable renewables development and adequacy objectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petitet, Marie

2016-01-01

In liberalised electricity systems, power markets are expected to ensure the long-term coordination of investments in order to guarantee security of supply, sustainability and competitiveness. In the reference energy-only market, it relies on the ability of power markets - where the hourly price is aligned with the marginal cost of the system - to provide an adequate price-signal for investors. However, in practice, questions have been raised about its ability to trigger investments in Low-Carbon Technologies (LCT) including in particular Renewable Energy Sources of Electricity (RES-E), and its ability to ensure capacity adequacy. After a characterisation of these market failures, this dissertation tackles the two research topics within a methodological framework based on a System Dynamics model developed to simulate private investment decisions in power markets. First, the results show that substituting out-of-market support mechanisms for RES-E by market-based investments helped by the sole implementation of a carbon price appears as a feasible solution to trigger RES-E development providing that there is a political commitment on a high carbon price. Second, it also appears that the energy-only market with price cap is ineffective to ensure capacity adequacy in a context of mature markets with conventional thermal power plants under transition paths which involve a stable electricity demand thank to energy efficiency efforts and the exogenous development of RES-E thanks to support mechanisms in the absence of a high and fixed carbon price. Adding a capacity market or removing the price cap both bring benefits in terms of Loss Of Load Expectation (LOLE) and social welfare. Moreover, considering two various energy transition scenarios and different assumptions about the risk aversion of private investors, the capacity market is identified as the best option for regulators among the considered market designs. (author) [fr

The Comparison Study of Short-Term Prediction Methods to Enhance the Model Predictive Controller Applied to Microgrid Energy Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

César Hernández-Hernández

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Electricity load forecasting, optimal power system operation and energy management play key roles that can bring significant operational advantages to microgrids. This paper studies how methods based on time series and neural networks can be used to predict energy demand and production, allowing them to be combined with model predictive control. Comparisons of different prediction methods and different optimum energy distribution scenarios are provided, permitting us to determine when short-term energy prediction models should be used. The proposed prediction models in addition to the model predictive control strategy appear as a promising solution to energy management in microgrids. The controller has the task of performing the management of electricity purchase and sale to the power grid, maximizing the use of renewable energy sources and managing the use of the energy storage system. Simulations were performed with different weather conditions of solar irradiation. The obtained results are encouraging for future practical implementation.

A New Empirical Model for Short-Term Forecasting of the Broadband Penetration: A Short Research in Greece

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salpasaranis Konstantinos

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present a short research about the overall broadband penetration in Greece. In this research, a new empirical deterministic model is proposed for the short-term forecast of the cumulative broadband adoption. The fitting performance of the model is compared with some widely used diffusion models for the cumulative adoption of new telecommunication products, namely, Logistic, Gompertz, Flexible Logistic (FLOG, Box-Cox, Richards, and Bass models. The fitting process is done with broadband penetration official data for Greece. In conclusion, comparing these models with the empirical model, it could be argued that the latter yields well enough statistics indicators for fitting and forecasting performance. It also stresses the need for further research and performance analysis of the model in other more mature broadband markets.

Report 2 Energy Market Barometer - Summer 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schleich, Joachim; Cateura, Olivier; Faure, Corinne; Jacob, Jojo; Javaudin, Laurent; Molecke, Greg; Olsthoorn, Mark; Pinkse, Jonatan; Vernay, Anne-Lorene

2014-09-01

This Summer's edition of the Grenoble Ecole de Management (GEM) Energy Market Barometer documents the French energy experts' expectations of the impact of the Ukraine crisis on energy supply, the focus of energy policy in France, the economic implications of the energy transition, and the development of energy prices. The findings on the Ukraine crisis are also compared to a parallel survey in Germany, which was carried out by the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW). Key findings: - Half the French experts believe that the Ukraine crisis has worsened the security of natural gas supply in France; - Appropriate responses to the Ukraine crisis include strengthening the EU energy market integration, and investing in pipelines and in liquefied natural gas infrastructure; - The high perceived emphasis on energy efficiency in the current French energy policy is justified, but the focus on affordability for households and security of supply appears somewhat overrated; - The French energy transition is expected to hurt utilities, but to benefit technology providers and the economy as a whole; - Most experts believe the prices for electricity, gas, oil, and coal will remain relatively stable over the next 6 months, but they will increase over the next 5 years (except coal); - Expected prices of CO_2 certificates have slightly increased since the previous barometer report, in particular for the medium term

Energy implications of the move from a command to a market -based economy in Eastern Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bashmakov, I.

1991-01-01

Three scenarios of East Europe energy development till 2010 are considered. Calculation results show that in the short and long-term future Eastern Europe will encounter two types of difficulties. Firstly, the USSR can no longer cover strong demand for cheap oil from East European clients for the foreseeable future. Hence, Eastern Europe will need to find another source of oil supply and create corresponding infrastructure. Secondly, introduction of new rules in mutual trade of socialist countries and growth of the unit energy import value will force East European countries to pay substantially larger energy import bills (to 20-30 bln.$ in 1991-2000). Taking into account the difficulties to earn such volumes of hard currency the main conclusion is that the problem of energy supply will be one of the most difficult in Eastern Europe transition from a command to a market economy. (author)

Short-term mechanisms influencing volumetric brain dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikki Dieleman

2017-01-01

Full Text Available With the use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI and brain analysis tools, it has become possible to measure brain volume changes up to around 0.5%. Besides long-term brain changes caused by atrophy in aging or neurodegenerative disease, short-term mechanisms that influence brain volume may exist. When we focus on short-term changes of the brain, changes may be either physiological or pathological. As such determining the cause of volumetric dynamics of the brain is essential. Additionally for an accurate interpretation of longitudinal brain volume measures by means of neurodegeneration, knowledge about the short-term changes is needed. Therefore, in this review, we discuss the possible mechanisms influencing brain volumes on a short-term basis and set-out a framework of MRI techniques to be used for volumetric changes as well as the used analysis tools. 3D T1-weighted images are the images of choice when it comes to MRI of brain volume. These images are excellent to determine brain volume and can be used together with an analysis tool to determine the degree of volume change. Mechanisms that decrease global brain volume are: fluid restriction, evening MRI measurements, corticosteroids, antipsychotics and short-term effects of pathological processes like Alzheimer's disease, hypertension and Diabetes mellitus type II. Mechanisms increasing the brain volume include fluid intake, morning MRI measurements, surgical revascularization and probably medications like anti-inflammatory drugs and anti-hypertensive medication. Exercise was found to have no effect on brain volume on a short-term basis, which may imply that dehydration caused by exercise differs from dehydration by fluid restriction. In the upcoming years, attention should be directed towards studies investigating physiological short-term changes within the light of long-term pathological changes. Ultimately this may lead to a better understanding of the physiological short-term effects of

Energy economics and financial markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dorsman, Andre [Vrije Univ. Amsterdam (Netherlands). Dept. of Finance; Simpson, John L. [Curtin Univ., Perth, WA (Australia). School of Economics and Finance; Westerman, Wim (eds.) [Groningen Univ. (Netherlands). Faculty of Economics and Business Economics, Econometrics and Finance

2013-10-01

Deals with the upcoming theme of energy issues. Links energy issues with economics and financial markets. Combines global focus with specific regional and local examples. Unites theoretical insights with timely data and practical insights. Specialized author team from all over the world. Energy issues feature frequently in the economic and financial press. Specific examples of topical energy issues come from around the globe and often concern economics and finance. The importance of energy production, consumption and trade raises fundamental economic issues that impact the global economy and financial markets. This volume presents research on energy economics and financial markets related to the themes of supply and demand, environmental impact and renewables, energy derivatives trading, and finance and energy. The contributions by experts in their fields take a global perspective, as well as presenting cases from various countries and continents.

Renewable Energy Policies and Market Developments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Dijk, A.L.; Beurskens, L.W.M.; Boots, M.G.; Kaal, M.B.T.; De Lange, T.J.; Van Sambeek, E.J.W.; Uyterlinde, M.A.

2003-03-01

Reviews and an analysis of the policy support for the stimulation of renewable electricity in the current energy market are presented, and an overview is given of the main new developments influencing the renewable energy market. The report is part of the analysis phase of the project REMAC 2000, which has led to the publication of a roadmap for the acceleration of the RE market. REMAC 2000 aims to promote a sustainable growth of the renewable energy market. For such a sustainable growth, important success factors are not only effectiveness of policy, but also security for investors, which is essential for building up a sector and developing the renewable energy market. Consistency of regulations and policies at different levels and between policy fields form a condition for security, as does the active involvement of market stakeholders. Further, the increasing role of trade within the energy and renewable energy sector leads to a priority for international coherence of policies and markets. To guarantee a sustainable growth of the renewable energy sector, a broad perspective of policy makers and planners is required- to include a long time frame, a comprehensive view of related policy fields and authorities involved, and an orientation that looks beyond national borders

Verbal Short-Term Memory Span in Speech-Disordered Children: Implications for Articulatory Coding in Short-Term Memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Raine, Adrian; And Others

1991-01-01

Children with speech disorders had lower short-term memory capacity and smaller word length effect than control children. Children with speech disorders also had reduced speech-motor activity during rehearsal. Results suggest that speech rate may be a causal determinant of verbal short-term memory capacity. (BC)

Gazprom on the European Market: In Search of the Balance between the Principles of Competition and Energy Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valery I. Salygin

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article analyses the position of Gazprom on the key export market - the market of the European Union. Situation on the EU gas market changed considerably because of an imbalance between supply and demand. Gazprom had to make price concessions for almost all of the main consumers of Russian gas in Europe, and also had to allow European consumers to break one of the key provisions of long-term contracts - "take or pay" clause. Besides disputes at the corporate level significant differences still remain about the well-known Third energy package, which effectively prohibits Gazprom to own and operate gas pipelines on the territory of the EU, as well as binding it to provide a third party access to gas pipelines. The implementation of Third package provisions on function unbundling by some EU Member States in the most rigid version may contradict bilateral international agreements of Russia with the EU Member States, primarily agreements on investment protection. Possible reasons underlying the investigation initiated by the European Commission against Gazprom in connection with a possible violation ofEU competition rules are examined. The paper investigates legal, political and economic aspects of contemporary regime of gas cooperation, particularly restriction of reexport, linkage between gas and oil prices, pricing based on long-term contracts and spot markets. The paper concludes that Russia and the EU need to elaborate a comprehensive document that would ensure the stability of the regulatory environment of energy cooperation and would reflect the balance of interests of producers and consumers. This document should equally ensure highly competitive environment and guarantees of security of supply in the short and long term.

Commercialisation and development of the solar energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Out, P.G.; Zegers, F.T.S.; Voskens, R.G.J.H.; Venema, T.W.; Ree, B.G.C. van der; Linthorst, G.G.H.

2000-01-01

In the nineties the 'project approach' has been developed in The Netherlands to overcome prevailing market barriers for the large scale market introduction of Solar Water heaters: poor economics, low acquaintance at consumer as well as at urban planning and architect level, a supposed low quality perception, complex subsidy handling and unfavorable building codes. Within this approach solar technology is offered to customers in different market segments in packages combining: the economy of scale, quality control, high quality solar energy systems and back-up heating systems, selective marketing and publicity focussed on the target group, financial, logistic, installation and after sales services. Since 1990 the annual solar collector sales in The Netherlands have increased from 5,000 m 2 to approx. 30,000 m 2 in 1999 due to a government program in which the project approach has been developed and repeatedly executed in new housing developments, renovation projects and in campaigns focussed at individual home-owners and more recently in the market segments were large scale solar systems can be applied. The project approach effectively triggers off long term market development. This takes place by the numerous follow-up projects and knowledge transfer to organizations participating in the various projects. Other important spin off for long term market development is the establishment of national solar installation/lease companies, the development of new financing and marketing methods and new kinds of promoters like banks and NGOs. (au)

Recent developments in European energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schubert, E.

1981-01-01

The industrial development in Europe which has created a remarkable prosperity was originally based on the availability of indigenous energy. At a later stage Europe accepted the offer of low cost crude from the world market. Since a few years we have lost our influence to moderately adjust prises to the changing circumstances in the world market for primary energies since - the multinationally operating companies have lost their balancing power and - the direct dialogue between producing and consuming countries has so far not resulted in any success. The use of the flowery expression energy crisis pretends that we are suffering from a lack of available primary energy. But the actual situation is more to the contrary. At the privailing energy price level there is a manifold offer. Considerable efforts, however, are necessary to create the prerequisits for an utilization of the options among different primary energies. Infrastructures have to be changed requiring impulse on the part of the state. There is no reason to assume a limited availability of crude oil and petroleum products for the use in such sectors in which an early substitution would cause an excessive economic burden. Besides lignite only nuclear energy does offer for the time beeing a remarkable contribution for a reduction of the energy bill in Europe. Starting with the power plants of the first generation which are sufficiently tested and via the breeder technology nuclear power production will most probably approach the aime of the utilization of renewable energies at reasonable costs over the long term. (orig.) [de

The Mind and Brain of Short-Term Memory

OpenAIRE

Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.; Nee, Derek Evan; Lustig, Cindy A.; Berman, Marc G.; Moore, Katherine Sledge

2008-01-01

The past 10 years have brought near-revolutionary changes in psychological theories about short-term memory, with similarly great advances in the neurosciences. Here, we critically examine the major psychological theories (the “mind”) of short-term memory and how they relate to evidence about underlying brain mechanisms. We focus on three features that must be addressed by any satisfactory theory of short-term memory. First, we examine the evidence for the architecture of short-term memory, w...

Very-long-term and short-term chromatic adaptation: are their influences cumulative?

Science.gov (United States)

Belmore, Suzanne C; Shevell, Steven K

2011-02-09

Very-long-term (VLT) chromatic adaptation results from exposure to an altered chromatic environment for days or weeks. Color shifts from VLT adaptation are observed hours or days after leaving the altered environment. Short-term chromatic adaptation, on the other hand, results from exposure for a few minutes or less, with color shifts measured within seconds or a few minutes after the adapting light is extinguished; recovery to the pre-adapted state is complete in less than an hour. Here, both types of adaptation were combined. All adaptation was to reddish-appearing long-wavelength light. Shifts in unique yellow were measured following adaptation. Previous studies demonstrate shifts in unique yellow due to VLT chromatic adaptation, but shifts from short-term chromatic adaptation to comparable adapting light can be far greater than from VLT adaptation. The question considered here is whether the color shifts from VLT adaptation are cumulative with large shifts from short-term adaptation or, alternatively, does simultaneous short-term adaptation eliminate color shifts caused by VLT adaptation. The results show the color shifts from VLT and short-term adaptation together are cumulative, which indicates that both short-term and very-long-term chromatic adaptation affect color perception during natural viewing. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dictionary of Marketing Terms.

Science.gov (United States)

Everhardt, Richard M.

A listing of words and definitions compiled from more than 10 college and high school textbooks are presented in this dictionary of marketing terms. Over 1,200 entries of terms used in retailing, wholesaling, economics, and investments are included. This dictionary was designed to aid both instructors and students to better understand the…

Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2013: Market Trends and Projections to 2018

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-06-01

Global growth in natural gas use slowed measurably in 2012, although it still exceeded that of oil and total energy use. Among the headwinds facing gas are continuing weak demand in Europe, resilience of coal in North America as well as persistent bottlenecks and disruptions in the LNG value chain that in 2012 caused an exceptional global decline of LNG supply. At the same time, Asian demand for gas remains red-hot, and gas is beginning to gain traction as a transport fuel. The IEA new Medium-Term Gas Market Report provides a detailed analysis of demand, upstream investment and trade developments through 2018 that will shape the gas industry and the role of gas in the global energy system. Its special sections investigate the economic viability of gas-fired power generation in Europe, the prospects for an LNG trading hub in Asia as well as the potentially transformational role of natural gas in transport. Amid a continuous regional divergence between North American abundance, European weakness and Asian thirst for LNG, the 2013 Medium Term Gas Market Report will investigate the key questions that the gas industry faces. These include the prospect of the United States becoming a major gas exporter, the challenges of securing enough gas to meet China’s growth, and the ability of Russian gas – spurred both by weak EU demand and resurgent domestic production – to find its manifest destiny in Asia.

Integration of liberalised energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klinge Jacobsen, H.; Fristrup, P.; Munksgaard, J.; Pade, L.L.; Henriksen, T.C.

2004-03-01

The markets for electricity, natural gas and district heating are inter-linked both with respect to the energy flows and with respect to ownership of supply sources and infrastructure. The extent and the possible consequences of these linkages are examined in this report. The options for public interventions in these markets are analysed to compare instruments with respect to their ability to provide the necessary incentives for an efficient functioning of the liberalised markets. Aspects of retail markets with households facing multi-product distribution companies and aspects of the production of combined heat and power based on natural gas has been covered. This project identifies some important aspects related to final consumers and the interaction of markets with different types of regulation and scope for liberalisation. From a Danish perspective the district heat market and the dependence on market conditions for natural gas is a specific concern. Consumer concerns also relate to the creation of multi-product energy distribution companies that are privately owned and possibly controlled by foreign interests. Such companies might use bundled sales of energy products to extent their dominant position in one market e.g. a regulated heat market to a market with considerable competition (electricity). Bundled sales would not necessarily result in a loss for the consumer due to economies of scope in supplying energy products. However, the regulatory authorities responsible for district heat prices will have a more complicated job in surveying the bundled price setting. Integration of activities within natural gas distribution and CHP production has been analysed with respect to incentives and welfare implications. Results of the project point to critical market conditions and identify areas of concern for regulatory policies. The analysis shows that there is a large welfare loss associated with having monopolies in both natural gas supplies and the CHP production

The energy in Colombia: A wholesale market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

One year ago, the national government's energy politics, gave beginning to a novel strategy for the restructuring of the sector: The setting in march of the wholesale energy market -WEM - and the opening of the energy bag under the administration of interconnection electric S.A. E. P. S., ISA. After a year of works, the positive balance of the market and their permanent growth, are the best letter in presentation of this sector of the national economy. The wholesale energy market is conformed by generating companies. The generating ones are the companies with capacity of superior generation to the 20 MW that they are connected to the national interconnected system; it doesn't care if the origin of this energy is hydraulic, gas, coal or liquid fuel. The generators participate in the WEM with energy offers for price and with their long-term contracts. In the bag they can also offer or to buy energy the generators with capacity between 1 and 20 MW, registered in the National Center of Office CO of ISA, as WEM participants. These can be associated to a generator, to a distributor, to be conformed by one or several groups of big consumers or for organized companies for this purpose, as Mamonal in Cartagena. These users with more demand to 2 MW assisted in oneself place, receive the name of Not Regulated Clients -NRC - and they can hire their energy in free form. The commission of energy regulation and gas ERG modified the tops for these clients starting from January of 1997, the not regulated clients will be this way those that have a same demand or superior to 1 MW; and in January of 1998, bigger than 0.5 MW

Market Brief. Status of the Voluntary Renewable Energy Certificate Market (2011 Data)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heeter, Jenny [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Armstrong, Philip [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bird, Lori [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2012-09-01

This report documents the status and trends of U.S. 'voluntary' markets -- those in which consumers and institutions purchase renewable energy to match their electricity needs on a voluntary basis. Voluntary REC markets continue to exhibit growth and spur renewable energy development. Voluntary green power markets provide an additional revenue stream for renewable energy projects and raise consumer awareness of the benefits of renewable energy. Although a full estimate of the size of the voluntary market is not available for 2011, this review uses indicative metrics to capture 2011 voluntary market trends.

Market Brief: Status of the Voluntary Renewable Energy Certificate Market (2011 Data)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heeter, J.; Armstrong, P.; Bird, L.

2012-09-01

This report documents the status and trends of U.S. 'voluntary' markets -- those in which consumers and institutions purchase renewable energy to match their electricity needs on a voluntary basis. Voluntary REC markets continue to exhibit growth and spur renewable energy development. Voluntary green power markets provide an additional revenue stream for renewable energy projects and raise consumer awareness of the benefits of renewable energy. Although a full estimate of the size of the voluntary market is not available for 2011, this review uses indicative metrics to capture 2011 voluntary market trends.

International Voluntary Renewable Energy Markets (Presentation)