Price-signals and long term equilibrium. Reconsidering the organisation of electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, Dominique; Defeuilley, Christophe; Marty, Frederic

2009-11-01

The purpose of this article is to show that the reform of the electricity sector, based on a framework of interpretation in which the short-term/long-term articulation is made by the market price, does not result in an efficient result in terms of investment. After a presentation of a bibliographical review on investment in an uncertain context, the authors present a model of decentralised electricity markets which backs reforms. They highlight issues related to production investment which remain unresolved, and which may result in socially inefficient choices on the long term. They report an analysis of two solutions of industrial organisations, long term contracts and vertical and horizontal integration, which could solve these problems

Outlook for electricity markets 2005-2006 : an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-06-01

The National Energy Board monitors the supply of electricity as well as its demand in both domestic and export markets. This document was produced in response to a survey with power generation, transmission and distribution companies, marketers, end-users, environmental groups and government agencies who demonstrated the need for more short-and medium-term energy market assessments to supplement the Board's longer term energy analysis. It on the short-term (2005-2006) issues that can have a long-term effect on the electricity sector. The document presents an analysis of Canadian electricity markets with particular focus on the main drivers affecting current trends in generation, demand, prices, infrastructure additions, and inter-regional and international trade. Current restructuring activities in Canada's electricity industry were also described along with the close relationship between the electricity sectors in Canada and the United States which stems from the integrated nature of the North American power grid. A regional market assessment and a summary was provided for each of Canada's provinces and territories with reference to market structure and current market developments. It was revealed that Canada's electricity markets have developed along provincial or regional boundaries. Utilities have tried to provide adequate and reliable electricity supply, environmental sustainability and acceptable electricity prices. It was concluded that supply is adequate in all regions in the short-term, but tight supply conditions could emerge as early as 2007. Alternative and renewable resource and demand management are becoming more important in addressing air quality issues and supply adequacy. Since uncertainty may delay investment and development of new infrastructure, utilities may be forced to increase electricity prices. It was suggested that interprovincial energy transfers should be further explored. Five recommendations were presented to address the key

Short-term versus long-term market opportunities and financial constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrari, Angelo

1999-01-01

This presentation discusses gas developments in Europe, the European Gas Directive, short term vs. long term, and Snam's new challenges. The European gas market is characterized by (1) The role of gas in meeting the demand for energy, which varies greatly from one country to another, (2) A growing market, (3) Decreasing role of domestic production, and (4) Increasing imports. Within the European Union, the Gas Directive aims to transform single national markets into one integrated European market by introducing third party access to the network for eligible clients as a means of increasing the competition between operators. The Gas Directive would appear to modify the form of the market rather than its size, and in particular the sharing of responsibility and risk among operators. The market in the future will offer operators the possibility to exploit opportunities deriving mainly from demands for increased flexibility. Opportunities linked to entrepreneurial initiatives require long-term investments characteristic of the gas business. Risks and opportunities must be balanced evenly between different operators. If everyone takes on their own risks and responsibilities, this means a wider distribution of the risks of long-term vs. short-term, currently borne by the gas companies that are integrated, into a market that tends to favour the short-term. A gradual liberalization process should allow incumbent operators to gradually diversify their activities in new gas market areas or enter new business activities. They could move beyond their local and European boundaries in pursuit of an international dimension. The market will have to make the transition from the national to the European dimension: as an example, Snam covers 90% of the Italian market, but its share of an integrated European market will be about 15%

Supply security and short-run capacity markets for electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Creti, Anna; Fabra, Natalia

2007-01-01

The creation of electricity markets has raised the fundamental question as to whether markets create the right incentives for the provision of the reserves needed to maintain supply security in the short-run, or whether some form of regulation is required. In some states in the US, electricity distributors have been made responsible for providing such reserves by contracting capacity in excess of their forecasted peak demand. The so-called Installed Capacity Markets provide one means of contracting reserves, and are the subject of this paper. Under monopoly as well as under perfect competition, we identify firms' short-run opportunity costs of committing resources in the capacity market and the costs of inducing full capacity commitment. The long-run investment problem is not considered. From a welfare viewpoint, we also compare the desirability of providing reserves either through capacity markets or through the demand side (i.e. power curtailments). At the optimum, capacity obligations equal peak demand (plus expected outages) and the capacity deficiency rate (which serves as a price cap) is set at firms' opportunity costs of providing full capacity commitment. (Author)

Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kucukali, Serhat; Baris, Kemal

2010-01-01

This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970-2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning.

Forecast of electric power market to short-term: a time series approcah

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costa, Roberio Neves Pelinca da.

1994-01-01

Three different time series approaches are analysed by this dissertation in the Brazilian electricity markert context. The aim is to compare the predictive performance of these approaches from a simulated exercise using the main series of the Brazilian consumption of electricity: Total Consumption, Industrial Consumption, Residencial Consumption and Commercial Consumption. One concludes that these appraches offer an enormous potentiality to the short-term planning system of the Electric Sector. Among the univariate models, the results for the analysed period point out that the forecast produced by Holt-Winter's models are more accurate than those produced by ARIMA and structural models. When explanatory variables are introduced in the last models, one can notice, in general, an improvement in the predictive performance of the models, although there is no sufficient evidence to consider that they are superior to Holt-Winter's models. The models with explanatory variables can be particularly useful, however, when one intends either to build scenarios or to study the effects of some variables on the consumption of electricity. (author). 73 refs., 19 figs., 13 tabs

Quantitative and experimental analysis of investment incentive mechanisms in electricity markets: short- and long-term analysis of actors' strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalfallah, Mohamed Haikel

2009-01-01

In this thesis, we deal with the question of reliability of electricity system and particularly the problem of generation capacity adequacy in electricity markets, characterized by uncertain and volatile demand. This question is currently the object of many politics and economics debates in the European Commission of energy. It occurs within the context of de-regulations and reforms of liberalization operated in western countries. This deregulation was caused many shortages and crisis in many electricity markets in the world. Failures are caused by several factors such as, the presence of uncertainties on future demand and fuel prices, the risk-averse behavior of investors and the market power exercised by existing generators. They had led to high spot market prices and a fundamental imbalance between the steadily growing demand for power and the limited increases, due to the lack of investments, in generation capacities. Many mechanisms, additional to the energy market, that ensure an adequate incentive for investments and a stable and socially acceptable electricity prices have been proposed. In this work, we compare different investment incentive mechanisms, in terms of long-term capacity adequacy in an uncertain environment, cost effectiveness and the ability of reducing market power. In the literature, the problem of long-term system reliability has been largely studied in qualitative terms. A few works attempt to model the quantitative effects of those market designs. The contribution of this work is to propose a quantitative analysis based on dynamics models. Competition is considered by using the principles of game theory. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to deal with the stochastic environment of the market and mixed complementarity problem and variational inequality formulations are employed to find Nash equilibrium. In addition to the analytic analysis, an experimental study is carried out in order to include a larger diversity of strategy. The

Analyses of demand response in Denmark[Electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moeller Andersen, F.; Grenaa Jensen, S.; Larsen, Helge V.; Meibom, P.; Ravn, H.; Skytte, K.; Togeby, M.

2006-10-15

Due to characteristics of the power system, costs of producing electricity vary considerably over short time intervals. Yet, many consumers do not experience corresponding variations in the price they pay for consuming electricity. The topic of this report is: are consumers willing and able to respond to short-term variations in electricity prices, and if so, what is the social benefit of consumers doing so? Taking Denmark and the Nord Pool market as a case, the report focuses on what is known as short-term consumer flexibility or demand response in the electricity market. With focus on market efficiency, efficient allocation of resources and security of supply, the report describes demand response from a micro-economic perspective and provides empirical observations and case studies. The report aims at evaluating benefits from demand response. However, only elements contributing to an overall value are presented. In addition, the analyses are limited to benefits for society, and costs of obtaining demand response are not considered. (au)

Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kucukali, Serhat [Civil Engineering Department, Zonguldak Karaelmas University, Incivez 67100, Zonguldak (Turkey); Baris, Kemal [Mining Engineering Department, Zonguldak Karaelmas University, Incivez 67100, Zonguldak (Turkey)

2010-05-15

This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970-2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning. (author)

Short run pricing in competitive electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ring, B. J.; Read, E. G.

1996-01-01

In response to the need for more responsive, competitive and decentralized pricing strategies forced upon the industry by deregulation, this study reviewed the type of electricity pricing required to coordinate a competitive wholesale electricity market over time periods typically of the order of one hour. It was found that nodal spot pricing can provide a straight-forward mechanism for providing the correct signals to market participants, while reflecting the costs and complexities of transmission network operation. Provided that all binding constraints are represented in the pricing model, and assuming that they are used in conjunction with long term contracts and capacity rights, such pricing can potentially deliver most of the benefits promised by perfect coordination, while allowing competition to flourish. 4 refs

Short-Term Market Risks Implied by Weekly Options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben Gustav; Fusari, Nicola; Todorov, Viktor

a direct way to study volatility and jump risks. Unlike longer-dated options, they are largely insensitive to the risk of intertemporal shifts in the economic environment. Adopting a novel semi-nonparametric approach, we uncover variation in the negative jump tail risk which is not spanned by market......We study short-term market risks implied by weekly S&P 500 index options. The introduction of weekly options has dramatically shifted the maturity profile of traded options over the last five years, with a substantial proportion now having expiry within one week. Such short-dated options provide......" by the level of market volatility and elude standard asset pricing models....

Efficient integration of renewable energies in the German electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nabe, C.A.

2006-01-01

Liberalisation of the electricity sector aims to carry out coordination tasks within the system by markets and market prices. This study examines how markets need to be designed to carry out coordination tasks caused by integration of renewable energies in an efficient way. This question is applied to the German electricity system and recommendations are derived from identified deficits. The examination uses the structure-conduct-performance approach of industrial organisation economics. Integration of renewable energies does not result in entirely new coordination tasks but complicates those that exist in any electricity supply system. Within the short-term coordination tasks provision and operation of reserve capacity is affected by renewable energies. Long-term coordination means that the relation between fixed and variable costs of generators as well as generator flexibility has to be adjusted to the characteristics of renewable energies. The relevant short-term coordination task with the network is congestion management. In the long run costs of grid expansion and permanent congestion management have to be balanced. For the execution of short-run coordination tasks integrated and centralised market architectures are superior to decentralised architectures. The increase of short-term coordination tasks due to renewable energies caused by inflexibilities of consumers and conventional generators results in more information that has to be considered. By centralising that information in one market, an increase in productive efficiency can be obtained. In Germany the increased coordination tasks are determined by the integration of wind generators into the electricity system. The present German market architecture results in inefficiencies in short-term coordination. This is demonstrated by an analysis of procedural rules and prices of the ancillary service markets. They demonstrate that market performance is low and significant deviations from competitive prices

Long-term Nash equilibria in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pozo, David; Contreras, Javier; Caballero, Angel; de Andres, Antonio

2011-01-01

In competitive electricity markets, companies simultaneously offer their productions to obtain the maximum profits on a daily basis. In the long run, the strategies utilized by the electric companies lead to various long-term equilibria that can be analyzed with the appropriate tools. We present a methodology to find plausible long-term Nash equilibria in pool-based electricity markets. The methodology is based on an iterative market Nash equilibrium model in which the companies can decide upon their offer strategies. An exponential smoothing of the bids submitted by the companies is applied to facilitate the convergence of the iterative procedure. In each iteration of the model the companies face residual demand curves that are accurately modeled by Hermite interpolating polynomials. We introduce the concept of meta-game equilibrium strategies to allow companies to have a range of offer strategies where several pure and mixed meta-game Nash equilibria are possible. With our model it is also possible to model uncertainty or to generate price scenarios for financial models that assess the value of a generating unit by real options analysis. The application of the proposed methodology is illustrated with several realistic case studies. (author)

The uranium industry: long-term planning for short-term competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vottero, X.; Georges Capus, G.

2001-01-01

Long term planning for short term competition Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. Firstly, the risk of investing in new mining projects in western countries is growing because, on the one hand, of very erratic market conditions and, on the other hand, of increasingly lengthy, complex and unpredictable regulatory conditions. Secondly, the supply of other sources of uranium (uranium derived from nuclear weapons, uranium produced in CIS countries, ...) involve other risks, mainly related to politics and commercial restrictions. Consequently, competitive uranium supply requires not only technical competence but also financial strength and good marketing capabilities in order to anticipate long-term market trends, in terms of both demand and supply. It also requires taking into account new parameters such as politics, environment, regulations, etc. Today, a supplier dedicated to the sustainable production of nuclear electricity must manage a broad range of long-term risks inherent to the procurement of uranium. Taking into account all these parameters in a context of short-term, fast-changing market is a great challenge for the future generation. World Uranium Civilian Supply and Demand. (authors)

Hybrid Electricity Markets with Long-Term Risk-Sharing Arrangements: Adapting Market Design to Security of Supply and decarbonization Objectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ROQUES, Fabien; FINON, Dominique

2017-01-01

The re-emergence of policy interventionism in electricity markets raises questions as to how market design can best be adapted to meeting the investment challenge associated with security of supply (SoS) and decarbonization objectives. This paper takes an institutionalist approach in terms of modularity of the market design, and reviews the standard historical approach towards competitive markets, in order to analyse the roles and interactions of the initial and additional market 'modules'. We argue that a number of additional modules is required to achieve long-term policy objectives, such as decarbonization and security of supply (SoS). But, in turn, they destabilise the initial modules of the market design, in particular by the entries of renewables. We review the international experience with hybrid market design and draw a number of policy recommendations at to best practices, as well as suggesting ways in which the initial market modules can be improved to prevent inconsistencies with the new modules. The move towards a hybrid market regime, which relies on a combination of planning, long-term risk sharing arrangements and improved markets entrenched in a function of short-term coordination, appears to be unavoidable where decarbonization policies are adopted. (authors)

Perspectives for long-term competition in the central European electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haas, Reinhard

2005-01-01

In this paper we focus on the Central European electricity market and analyse whether liberalization, deregulation, and privatization are sufficient to bring about real competition. Moreover, we discuss the relevance of the following conditions to bring about real competition and to avoid market power: 1) A rigorous correct un bundling; 2) excess capacities in transmission; 3) excess capacities in generation; 4) a large number of generators and suppliers; 5) the balanced existence of short-term (e.g. spot markets) and long-term markets (e.g. bilateral contracts, forwards); 6) full liberalization; Some major findings of this analysis are: 1) Currently, demand is continuously increasing while capacities are shut down. At least in 2009 demand will have caught up with generation capacities. This could lead to severe price spikes. 2) The Central European electricity market is separated from other markets by means of limited transmission capacities; 3) With respect to effective competition in Central Europe the major problems are: i) a very small (and continuously decreasing) number of generators, and ii) a lack of serious un bundling between generation and transmission mainly in Germany; This leads to cross-subsidization of generation by the network operation and to a heavy discrimination of other and new generators; 4) Moreover, a crucial condition for active competition is a sufficiently large transmission grid. Yet, currently especially at the border to the new EU member countries transmission capacities are rather scarce and there are no signs of extensions of the grid. This also limits the access of countries with potential excess capacities like Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania to the Central European market The major conclusion of this analysis is: All conditions investigated above must be fulfilled simultaneously to bring about a competitive electricity market in Western Europe and the extended European Union. If only one of these conditions is missing, competition

A New Two-Stage Approach to Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dragan Tasić

2013-04-01

Full Text Available In the deregulated energy market, the accuracy of load forecasting has a significant effect on the planning and operational decision making of utility companies. Electric load is a random non-stationary process influenced by a number of factors which make it difficult to model. To achieve better forecasting accuracy, a wide variety of models have been proposed. These models are based on different mathematical methods and offer different features. This paper presents a new two-stage approach for short-term electrical load forecasting based on least-squares support vector machines. With the aim of improving forecasting accuracy, one more feature was added to the model feature set, the next day average load demand. As this feature is unknown for one day ahead, in the first stage, forecasting of the next day average load demand is done and then used in the model in the second stage for next day hourly load forecasting. The effectiveness of the presented model is shown on the real data of the ISO New England electricity market. The obtained results confirm the validity advantage of the proposed approach.

European Electricity Markets in Crisis: Diagnostic and Way Forward

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roques, Fabien

2013-01-01

The European electricity industry is going through a profound crisis as several factors combine to create a challenging operating environment for thermal plants. The key issue is that the regulatory and market framework create a climate of deep policy and regulatory uncertainty which will hamper investments and will not deliver on the long term objectives of decarbonization and competitiveness of the European economy. This report analyses both the short and long term challenges for the European electricity markets, and highlights some directions for reform. The report has three main parts. The first part describes the current status quo and challenges associated with the long term decarbonization of the European economy: Section 1 sets the scene by describing the current challenges for the European electricity industry and the challenges associated with the long term decarbonization of the European economy; Section 2 quantifies the investment challenge for the electricity industry and shows how the current regulatory uncertainty undermines investments and will likely not deliver on the stated policy objectives; The second part of the report focusses on the 'extrinsic' issues which affect electricity markets: Section 3 reviews the wider context for electricity market liberalization, which calls for a rethink of the European energy policy framework, including the recent developments in global energy markets, as well as the impact of rising energy prices on economic competitiveness; Section 4 presents the distortive effects of support policies for low carbon technologies and the issues with the European carbon Trading Scheme; The third and last part of the report concentrates on the 'intrinsic issues' with electricity markets: Section 5 details the experience to date with European electricity markets liberalization, and highlights the achievements as well as the shortcomings of the liberalization and integration process; Section 6 dwells into the 'intrinsic issues

Stratum Electricity Markets: Toward Multi-temporal Distributed Risk Management for Sustainable Electricity Provision

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Zhiyong (Richard)

Motivated by the overall challenge of ensuring long-term sustainable electricity service, we view this challenge as a long-term decision making problem under uncertainties. We start by recognizing that, independent of the industry organization, the uncertainties are enormous and often exogenous to the energy service providers. They are multi-dimensional and are result of fundamental drivers, ranging from the supply side, through the demand side, to the regulatory and policy sides. The basic contribution of this thesis comes from the recognition that long-term investments for ensuring reliable and stable electricity service critically depend on how these uncertainties are perceived, valued and managed by the different stakeholders within the complex industry organization such as the electric power industry. We explain several reasons why price signals obtained from current short-term electricity markets alone are not sufficient enough for long-term sustainable provision. Some enhancements are presented in the thesis to improve the short-term electricity market price signals to reflect the true cost of operation. New market mechanisms and instruments are needed to facilitate the stakeholders to better deal with long-term risks. The problems of ensuring long-term stable reliable service in the sense of the traditional resource adequacy requirements are revisited in both the restructuring industry and regulated industry. We introduce a so-called Stratum Electricity Market (SEM) design as the basic market mechanism for solving the problem of long-term reliable electricity service through a series of interactive multi-lateral market exchange platforms for risks communication, management and evaluations over various time horizons and by the different groups of stakeholders. In other words, our proposed SEM is a basic IT-enabled framework for the decision making processes by various parties over different time. Because of the uniqueness of electricity as a commodity, the

Decoding restricted participation in sequential electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Knaut, Andreas; Paschmann, Martin

2017-06-15

Restricted participation in sequential markets may cause high price volatility and welfare losses. In this paper we therefore analyze the drivers of restricted participation in the German intraday auction which is a short-term electricity market with quarter-hourly products. Applying a fundamental electricity market model with 15-minute temporal resolution, we identify the lack of sub-hourly market coupling being the most relevant driver of restricted participation. We derive a proxy for price volatility and find that full market coupling may trigger quarter-hourly price volatility to decrease by a factor close to four.

Optimal short-term operation schedule of a hydropower plant in a competitive electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez-Diaz, Juan I.; Wilhelmi, Jose R.; Arevalo, Luis A.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a dynamic programming model to solve the short-term scheduling problem of a hydropower plant that sells energy in a pool-based electricity market with the objective of maximizing the revenue. This is a nonlinear and non-concave problem subject to strong technical and strategic constraints, and in which discrete and continuous variables take part. The model described in this paper determines, in each hour of the planning horizon (typically from one day to one week), both the optimal number of units in operation (unit commitment) and the power to be generated by the committed units (generation dispatch). The power generated by each unit is considered as a nonlinear function of the actual water discharge and volume of the associated reservoir. The dependence of the units' efficiency and operating limits with the available gross head is also accounted for in this model. The application of this model to a real hydropower plant demonstrates its capabilities in providing the operation schedule that maximizes the revenue of the hydro plant while satisfying several constraints of different classes. In addition, the use of this model as a supporting tool to estimate the economic feasibility of a hydropower plant development project is also analyzed in the paper. (author)

Forecasting electricity market pricing using artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pao, Hsiao-Tien

2007-01-01

Electricity price forecasting is extremely important for all market players, in particular for generating companies: in the short term, they must set up bids for the spot market; in the medium term, they have to define contract policies; and in the long term, they must define their expansion plans. For forecasting long-term electricity market pricing, in order to avoid excessive round-off and prediction errors, this paper proposes a new artificial neural network (ANN) with single output node structure by using direct forecasting approach. The potentials of ANNs are investigated by employing a rolling cross validation scheme. Out of sample performance evaluated with three criteria across five forecasting horizons shows that the proposed ANNs are a more robust multi-step ahead forecasting method than autoregressive error models. Moreover, ANN predictions are quite accurate even when the length of the forecast horizon is relatively short or long

The current situation and mid-term prospects for European electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helm, Dieter

2013-01-01

This analysis of the current situation and mid-term prospects for European electricity markets presents: the objectives of energy policy, the historical legacy, the attempts at European integration and the Internal Energy Market (IEM), the coming of the Climate Change Package, the impact of the world economic and Euro-zone crises, the impact of shale gas and the new world of fossil fuel abundance, the impact of renewables on emissions, the impact of renewables on electricity markets, the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) and the renewables and the electricity markets, the coming of capacity crunch in some cases, the capacity markets, the return of central buyers and national energy policies, and what is to be done for the world electricity markets

Mid-Term Electricity Market Clearing Price Forecasting with Sparse Data: A Case in Newly-Reformed Yunnan Electricity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chuntian Cheng

2016-10-01

Full Text Available For the power systems, for which few data are available for mid-term electricity market clearing price (MCP forecasting at the early stage of market reform, a novel grey prediction model (defined as interval GM(0, N model is proposed in this paper. Over the traditional GM(0, N model, three major improvements of the proposed model are: (i the lower and upper bounds are firstly identified to give an interval estimation of the forecasting value; (ii a novel whitenization method is then established to determine the definite forecasting value from the forecasting interval; and (iii the model parameters are identified by an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO instead of the least square method (LSM for the limitation of LSM. Finally, a newly-reformed electricity market in Yunnan province of China is studied, and input variables are contrapuntally selected. The accuracy of the proposed model is validated by observed data. Compared with the multiple linear regression (MLR model, the traditional GM(0, N model and the artificial neural network (ANN model, the proposed model gives a better performance and its superiority is further ensured by the use of the modified Diebold–Mariano (MDM test, suggesting that it is suitable for mid-term electricity MCP forecasting in a data-sparse electricity market.

Short-Term Expectation Formation Versus Long-Term Equilibrium Conditions: The Danish Housing Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Hetland

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The primary contribution of this paper is to establish that the long-swings behavior observed in the market price of Danish housing since the 1970s can be understood by studying the interplay between short-term expectation formation and long-run equilibrium conditions. We introduce an asset market model for housing based on uncertainty rather than risk, which under mild assumptions allows for other forms of forecasting behavior than rational expectations. We test the theory via an I(2 cointegrated VAR model and find that the long-run equilibrium for the housing price corresponds closely to the predictions from the theoretical framework. Additionally, we corroborate previous findings that housing markets are well characterized by short-term momentum forecasting behavior. Our conclusions have wider relevance, since housing prices play a role in the wider Danish economy, and other developed economies, through wealth effects.

Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Federico Divina

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The ability to predict short-term electric energy demand would provide several benefits, both at the economic and environmental level. For example, it would allow for an efficient use of resources in order to face the actual demand, reducing the costs associated to the production as well as the emission of CO 2 . To this aim, in this paper we propose a strategy based on ensemble learning in order to tackle the short-term load forecasting problem. In particular, our approach is based on a stacking ensemble learning scheme, where the predictions produced by three base learning methods are used by a top level method in order to produce final predictions. We tested the proposed scheme on a dataset reporting the energy consumption in Spain over more than nine years. The obtained experimental results show that an approach for short-term electricity consumption forecasting based on ensemble learning can help in combining predictions produced by weaker learning methods in order to obtain superior results. In particular, the system produces a lower error with respect to the existing state-of-the art techniques used on the same dataset. More importantly, this case study has shown that using an ensemble scheme can achieve very accurate predictions, and thus that it is a suitable approach for addressing the short-term load forecasting problem.

Improving the principles of short-term electric load forecasting of the Irkutsk region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kornilov Vladimir

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Forecasting of electric load (EL is an important task for both electric power entities and large consumers of electricity [1]. Large consumers are faced with the need to compose applications for the planned volume of EL, and the deviation of subsequent real consumption from previously announced leads to the appearance of penalties from the wholesale market. In turn, electricity producers are interested in forecasting the demand for electricity for prompt response to its fluctuations and for the purpose of optimal infrastructure development. The most difficult and urgent task is the hourly forecasting of EL, which is extremely important for the successful solution of problems of optimization of generating capacities, minimization of power losses, dispatching control, security assessment of power supply, etc. Ultimately, such forecasts allow optimizing the cash costs for electricity and fuel or water consumption during generation. This paper analyzes the experience of the branch of JSC "SO UPS" Irkutsk Regional Dispatch Office of the procedure for short-term forecasting of the EL of the Irkutsk region.

Short-term and long-term Interconnectedness of stock returns in Western Europe and the global market

OpenAIRE

Panda, Ajaya Kumar; Nanda, Swagatika

2017-01-01

Background: The present study examines the short term dynamics and long term equilibrium relationship among the stock markets of 17 countries in Western Europe as well as the world market, using time series techniques. Methods: Weekly returns of market benchmark indices of the respective countries are used from the second week of 1995 to the fourth week of December 2013. Results: The study finds that the market returns of Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, and France are relatively less dynam...

The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moutinho, Victor; Vieira, Joel; Carrizo Moreira, Antonio

2011-01-01

The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: → We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. → We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. → We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. → We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. → The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

Generation capacity adequacy in interdependent electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepeda, Mauricio; Finon, Dominique

2011-01-01

This paper deals with the practical problems related to long-term security of supply in regional electricity markets with transmission constraints. Differences between regulatory policies and market designs in terms of generation adequacy policies may distort the normal functioning of the neighboring markets, as well as the reliability of supply. We test the effect of heterogeneous regulatory design between two interdependent markets: energy-only market, price-capped market without capacity mechanisms and price-capped markets with forward capacity contracts obligation. We rely on a long-term market simulation model in system dynamics that characterizes expansion decision in a competitive regime. The results show that differences in market designs affect both price and reliability of supply in the two markets. We examine both the short and long terms effect, and how free-riding may occur where capacity adequacy policies are adopted in one market but not the other. The main finding is that the lack of harmonization between local markets in policies to ensure capacity adequacy may lead to undesirable side effects. - Research highlights: → We model the long-term dynamic of two interdependent markets. → We examine both the short and long terms effect of heterogeneous regulatory design: energy-only market, price-capped market without capacity mechanisms and price-capped markets with forward capacity contracts obligation. → Differences in market designs affect both price and reliability of supply in the two markets. → Lack of harmonization between local markets in policies to ensure capacity adequacy may lead to undesirable side effects. → Free-riding may occur where capacity adequacy policies are adopted in one market but not the other.

Agent-based simulation of electricity markets : a literature review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sensfuss, F.; Genoese, M.; Genoese, M.; Most, D.

2007-01-01

The electricity sector in Europe and North America is undergoing considerable changes as a result of deregulation, issues related to climate change, and the integration of renewable resources within the electricity grid. This article reviewed agent-based simulation methods of analyzing electricity markets. The paper provided an analysis of research currently being conducted on electricity market designs and examined methods of modelling agent decisions. Methods of coupling long term and short term decisions were also reviewed. Issues related to single and multiple market analysis methods were discussed, as well as different approaches to integrating agent-based models with models of other commodities. The integration of transmission constraints within agent-based models was also discussed, and methods of measuring market efficiency were evaluated. Other topics examined in the paper included approaches to integrating investment decisions, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) trading, and renewable support schemes. It was concluded that agent-based models serve as a test bed for the electricity sector, and will help to provide insights for future policy decisions. 74 refs., 6 figs

The prerequisites for effective competition in restructured wholesale electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haas, R.; Auer, H.

2006-01-01

This paper argues that effective competition in reformed wholesale electricity markets can only be achieved if the following six prerequisites are met: (1) separation of the grid from generation and supply; (2) wholesale price deregulation; (3) sufficient transmission capacity for a competitive market and non-discriminating grid access; (4) excess generation capacity developed by a large number of competing generators; (5) an equilibrium relationship between short-term spot markets and the long-term financial instruments that marketers use to manage spot-market price volatility; (6) an essentially hands-off government policy that encompasses reduced oversight and privatization. The absence of any one of the first five conditions may result in an oligopoly or monopoly market whose economic performance does not meet the efficiency standards of a competently managed regulated electrical utility. (author)

Electricity market design of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peek, Markus; Diels, Robert

2016-01-01

The transformation of the power generation system, to one in which renewable energies will form a cornerstone, will change the requirements for all market actors. To achieve the goals of the German Energiewende ('energy transition'), greater flexibility in production and consumption is of particular importance. Flexibility enables the cost-effective integration of the fluctuating actual feed-in of renewable energies. On the one hand, the technical options for reducing existing technical inflexibilities are given to a considerable extent. On the other hand, analyses of the transnational compensation effects of load and renewable energy supply (RES) feed-in show that flexibility requirements can be reduced significantly in a common electricity market. Electricity markets in which there is open technological competition are an appropriate instrument for the flexibilization of the power supply system. In the short term, the mechanisms of competitive electricity markets ensure an efficient synchronization of supply and demand. Over the medium and long term, the market creates efficient incentives to adapt the generation system and the behavior of consumers to future needs, resulting from the changes in the residual load structure. But at the same time, in recent years the occurrence of negative electricity prices in situations with significantly positive residual loads show that flexibility restraints exist. The causes of these restraints are at least partly due to the market design or the regulatory framework. On the one hand, there are barriers to market entry and, on the other hand, price signals from the electricity markets do not reach all market actors or reach them distortedly. To enable the cost effective development of the different flexibility options in an open technology competition, restraints resulting from market design and the regulatory framework (e. g. in the framework of grid charges, the market and product design of control power markets

Short-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenfeng; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Wang, Yubin Mao; Wang, Jiangbo; He, Dandan

2018-04-01

Short-term electricity demand forecasting is the basic work to ensure safe operation of the power system. In this paper, a practical economic electricity transmission model (EETM) is built. With the intelligent adaptive modeling capabilities of Prognoz Platform 7.2, the econometric model consists of three industrial added value and income levels is firstly built, the electricity demand transmission model is also built. By multiple regression, moving averages and seasonal decomposition, the problem of multiple correlations between variables is effectively overcome in EETM. The validity of EETM is proved by comparison with the actual value of Henan Province. Finally, EETM model is used to forecast the electricity consumption of the 1-4 quarter of 2018.

Market structure in the US electricity industry: a long-term perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamerschen, D.R.

2005-01-01

We estimate changes in market structure in the US electric power industry during the last three decades using two independent approaches. First, we estimate an industry-wide conjectural-variations parameter. We find that industry concentration was generally rising during the 1970s but has been gradually and consistently falling since the early 1980s. To check the robustness of these results, we then use a translog production function to estimate the Lerner Index. The results confirm that the industry was becoming less concentrated during the 1980s, though the Lerner Index tended to fluctuate during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Our results suggest that the current state of the electricity industry may have more to do with long-term changes in market structure than recent attempts to establish competitive wholesale electricity markets. (author)

Efficient integration of renewable energies in the German electricity market; Effiziente Integration erneuerbarer Energien in den deutschen Elektrizitaetsmarkt

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nabe, C.A.

2006-07-01

Liberalisation of the electricity sector aims to carry out coordination tasks within the system by markets and market prices. This study examines how markets need to be designed to carry out coordination tasks caused by integration of renewable energies in an efficient way. This question is applied to the German electricity system and recommendations are derived from identified deficits. The examination uses the structure-conduct-performance approach of industrial organisation economics. Integration of renewable energies does not result in entirely new coordination tasks but complicates those that exist in any electricity supply system. Within the short-term coordination tasks provision and operation of reserve capacity is affected by renewable energies. Long-term coordination means that the relation between fixed and variable costs of generators as well as generator flexibility has to be adjusted to the characteristics of renewable energies. The relevant short-term coordination task with the network is congestion management. In the long run costs of grid expansion and permanent congestion management have to be balanced. For the execution of short-run coordination tasks integrated and centralised market architectures are superior to decentralised architectures. The increase of short-term coordination tasks due to renewable energies caused by inflexibilities of consumers and conventional generators results in more information that has to be considered. By centralising that information in one market, an increase in productive efficiency can be obtained. In Germany the increased coordination tasks are determined by the integration of wind generators into the electricity system. The present German market architecture results in inefficiencies in short-term coordination. This is demonstrated by an analysis of procedural rules and prices of the ancillary service markets. They demonstrate that market performance is low and significant deviations from competitive prices

Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

Science.gov (United States)

Rubin, Ofir David

Estimates from the World Wind Energy Association assert that world total wind power installed capacity climbed from 18 Gigawatt (GW) to 152 GW from 2000 to 2009. Moreover, according to their predictions, by the end of 2010 global wind power capacity will reach 190 GW. Since electricity is a unique commodity, this remarkable expansion brings forward several key economic questions regarding the integration of significant amount of wind power capacity into deregulated electricity markets. The overall dissertation objective is to develop a comprehensive theoretical framework that enables the modeling of the performance and outcome of wind-integrated electricity markets. This is relevant because the state of knowledge of modeling electricity markets is insufficient for the purpose of wind power considerations. First, there is a need to decide about a consistent representation of deregulated electricity markets. Surprisingly, the related body of literature does not agree on the very economic basics of modeling electricity markets. That is important since we need to capture the fundamentals of electricity markets before we introduce wind power to our study. For example, the structure of the electric industry is a key. If market power is present, the integration of wind power has large consequences on welfare distribution. Since wind power uncertainty changes the dynamics of information it also impacts the ability to manipulate market prices. This is because the quantity supplied by wind energy is not a decision variable. Second, the intermittent spatial nature of wind over a geographical region is important because the market value of wind power capacity is derived from its statistical properties. Once integrated into the market, the distribution of wind will impact the price of electricity produced from conventional sources of energy. Third, although wind power forecasting has improved in recent years, at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards, forecasting

Evolution of Wholesale Electricity Market Design with Increasing Levels of Renewable Generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Bloom, A.; Botterud, A.; Townsend, A.; Levin, T.

2014-09-01

Variable generation such as wind and photovoltaic solar power has increased substantially in recent years. Variable generation has unique characteristics compared to the traditional technologies that supply energy in the wholesale electricity markets. These characteristics create unique challenges in planning and operating the power system, and they can also influence the performance and outcomes from electricity markets. This report focuses on two particular issues related to market design: revenue sufficiency for long-term reliability and incentivizing flexibility in short-term operations. The report provides an overview of current design and some designs that have been proposed by industry or researchers.

Report of the Commission on electricity market organization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

After having stated the three objectives of a public policy for a sustainable development of the electricity market, this report shows that the current situation is neither economically satisfying on a short term basis, nor sustainable on a long term basis, notably because market prices in France do not reflect the competitive advantages of the production stock, because the multiplication of regulated prices does not ensure a global economic coherence, and because new incomers do not have any development margin. The authors then state that the regulation must evolve from a general and permanent one to a more targeted and dynamic one while taking the necessity of providing electricity to small consumers, the European law, and competitiveness into account. Two solutions are proposed for such an evolution

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Management of Renewables in Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zugno, Marco

-by-price. In a similar setup, the optimal trading (and pricing) problem for a retailer connected to flexible consumers is considered. Finally, market and system operators are challenged by the increasing penetration of renewables, which put stress on markets that were designed to accommodate a generation mix largely......This thesis deals with the development and application of models for decision-making under uncertainty to support the participation of renewables in electricity markets. The output of most renewable sources, e.g., wind, is intermittent and, furthermore, it can only be predicted with a limited...... accuracy. As a result of their non-dispatchable and stochastic nature, the management of renewables poses new challenges as compared to conventional sources of electricity. Focusing in particular on short-term electricity markets, both the trading activities of market participants (producers, retailers...

Effects of long-term contracts on firms exercising market power in transmission constrained electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nam, Young Woo; Yoon, Yong Tae; Park, Jong-Keun; Hur, Don; Kim, Sung-Soo

2006-01-01

The electricity markets with only few large firms are often vulnerable to less competitive behaviors than the desired. The presence of transmission constraints further restrict the competition among firms and provide more opportunities for firms to exercise market power. While it is generally acknowledged that the long-term contracts provide good measures for mitigating market power in the spot market (thus reducing undesired price spikes), it is not even more clear how effective these contracts are if the market is severely limited due to transmission constraints. In this paper, an analytical approach through finding a Nash equilibrium is presented to investigate the effects of long-term contracts on firms exercising market power in a bid-based pool with transmission constraints. Surprisingly the analysis in this paper shows that the presence of long-term contracts may result in the reduced expected social welfare. A straightforward consequence of the analysis presented in this paper will be helpful for the regulators in Korea to reconsider offering vesting contracts to generating companies in the near future. (author)

Electricity and long term supply security. Search for power market respectful legal instruments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, D.; Pignon, V.

2006-01-01

This paper, also published in 'ISMEA Economie et Societe' Journal (Energy series 2006, no.10), deals with theoretical aspects of long term electricity supply security. Market prices and contractual arrangements on the physical and financial electricity markets do not allow to create sufficient incentives to invest in adequate capacity for guaranteeing the appropriate level of supply in every circumstance. The long term security of supply by capacity adequacy must be conceptualized as a collective good. Alternative solutions to reach capacity adequacy which have been adopted in different markets are successively considered: public procurement of strategic reserves, capacity payment, capacity obligation with exchangeable rights. Each one presents theoretical limits and practical drawbacks when implemented in complex markets. That brings out the interest of mechanism of centralized auctions for forward capacity contracts (or reliability options); it combines controls by quantity and by price while stabilizing investment in peak power plants and is compatible with energy and reserves markets, that is not the case of the three other instruments. (authors)

A dispatch based pricing model for the New Zealand electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ring, B.J.; Read, E.G.

1996-01-01

Work undertaken for the New Zealand transmission grid is described. Prices derived from an observed system dispatch can be used in the short-run coordination of a competitive wholesale electricity market. These prices vary across space and time, reflecting differences in marginal costs and changing demand. Markets for emergency reserve generating capacity can be integrated with a market for power. Used in conjunction with longer term contracts, such short-run prices have the potential to allow competitive power system operation without significant loss of coordination efficiencies. 2 figs., 26 refs

An Analysis of Short- Term Overreaction to Stock Market News: Iranian Evidence

OpenAIRE

Masoumeh Naderi; Sasan Mekanik

2012-01-01

In Financial markets information is in the form of signs, news and different predictions coming from inside or outside of the company which makes reactions and as a result changes in stock prices. Such as increase and decrease over the limit or long period of times. However, this behavior is non-rational behavior of market which can be a rational response to perceived uncertainty that is understood by investors. We investigate the stock market short –term overreaction. The Aim of this project...

The liberalisation of the European electricity market : an unstructured restructuring process?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boisseleau, F.; Hakvoort, R.

2005-01-01

The European Union (EU) directive 96/92/EC defines common rules for the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity, paving the way for the liberalization of the electricity markets of EU member states. Member states are obliged to open their national electricity supply markets, meaning that eligible customers can choose their own suppliers. This paper discussed the process by which the countries of the EU have restructured their electricity markets, arguing that the process has focused on legal and organizational issues, rather than specific prescriptions for the economic design of the market. Although the objective of the EU directive was to create a competitive market, restructuring has led to 15 or more fragmented markets, each liberalized to a different degree and shaped following a wide range of different principles. Areas where the EU has failed to provide a coherent market view were discussed. Issues concerning short-term market arrangements, congestion management and long-term investment were examined. Section 1 of the paper focused on policy issues in the liberalization process, while section 2 emphasized the importance of market design. Section 3 addressed the need for market monitoring and the issue of market power. It was concluded that liberalization is only one step in the process that alone cannot deliver the expected benefits of single integrated European-wide market. At present, the European electricity market is hindered by a lack of proper design and sufficient transparency. 32 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs

Short-term electric load forecasting using computational intelligence methods

OpenAIRE

Jurado, Sergio; Peralta, J.; Nebot, Àngela; Mugica, Francisco; Cortez, Paulo

2013-01-01

Accurate time series forecasting is a key issue to support individual and organizational decision making. In this paper, we introduce several methods for short-term electric load forecasting. All the presented methods stem from computational intelligence techniques: Random Forest, Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Networks, Evolutionary Support Vector Machines and Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning. The performance of the suggested methods is experimentally justified with several experiments carried out...

Short and long-term labour market consequences of coronary heart disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kruse, Marie; Sørensen, Jan; Davidsen, Michael

2009-01-01

National Cohort study and were followed from the year of their first hospital admission for CHD and onwards for up to 23 years. Individuals with CHD were individually matched with individuals without CHD. We analysed their short-term labour market participation and compared the long-term withdrawal risk...... for the two groups through Cox regression. RESULTS: In the year after the first CHD-related admission, 79% of individuals with CHD maintained their labour force participation compared with 93% of individuals without CHD. Individuals with CHD had a hazard ratio of 1.32 for withdrawal compared...... cardiac rehabilitation, which aims to maintain labour market participation. CONCLUSION: Individuals with CHD have a significantly increased risk of withdrawing from the labour market. Especially younger individuals and those employed as manual labour seem to have greater problems in maintaining labour...

Risk management in electricity markets emphasizing transmission congestion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristiansen, Tarjei

2004-01-01

This thesis analyzes transmission pricing, transmission congestion risks and their associated hedging instruments as well as mechanisms for stimulating investments in transmission expansion. An example of risk management in the case of a hydropower producer is included. After liberalization and restructuring of electricity markets, risk management has become important. In particular the thesis analyzes risks due to transmission congestion both in the short- and long-term (investments) for market players such as generators, loads, traders, independent system operators and merchant investors. The work is focused on the northeastern United States electricity markets and the Nordic electricity markets. The first part of the thesis reviews the literature related to the eight research papers in the thesis. This describes the risks that are relevant for an electricity market player and how these can be managed. Next, the basic ingredients of a competitive electricity market are described including the design of the system operator. The transmission pricing method is decisive for hedging against transmission congestion risks and there is an overview of transmission pricing models considering their similarities and differences. Depending on the transmission pricing method used, locational or area (zonal) pricing, the electricity market players can use financial transmission rights or Contracts for Differences, respectively. In the long-term it is important to create mechanisms for investments in transmission expansion and the thesis describes one possible approach and its potential problems. The second part comprises eight research papers. It presents empirical analyses of existing markets for transmission congestion derivatives, theoretical analyses of transmission congestion derivatives, modeling of merchant long-term financial transmission rights, theoretical analysis of the risks of the independent system operator in providing financial transmission rights, an analysis

Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Alvarez, Jesus; Rodriguez, Eduardo

2008-01-01

This paper analyzes the auto-correlations of international crude oil prices on the basis of the estimation of the Hurst exponent dynamics for returns over the period from 1987 to 2007. In doing so, a model-free statistical approach - detrended fluctuation analysis - that reduces the effects of non-stationary market trends and focuses on the intrinsic auto-correlation structure of market fluctuations over different time horizons, is used. Tests for time variations of the Hurst exponent indicate that over long horizons the crude oil market is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. However, meaningful auto-correlations cannot be excluded for time horizons smaller than one month where the Hurst exponent manifests cyclic, non-periodic dynamics. This means that the market exhibits a time-varying short-term inefficient behavior that becomes efficient in the long term. The proposed methodology and its findings are put in perspective with previous studies and results. (author)

Assessing long-term effects of demand response policies in wholesale electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepeda, Mauricio; Saguan, Marcelo

2014-05-01

This paper deals with the practical problems related to long-term issues in electricity markets in the presence of demand response development. Different policies have been implemented around the world aiming to develop demand response potential. Externalities, in particular the CO_2 externality, have been one of the key elements in the debate on the effectiveness of different policies regarding demand response development. Policy makers have several options to deal with this externality. The most direct one is to correct the externality by setting a CO_2 price at a level that corresponds to the cost to society of the corresponding CO_2 emissions. One alternative solution could be to subsidize carbon-free technologies as demand response. In this paper we examine potential long-term impacts of these two policies. We rely on a long-term market simulation model that characterizes expansion decisions in a competitive regime. We test for each policy two different scenarios regarding the possibility of internalization of the CO_2 externality. The results show that differences in development policies affect both investments and social costs in the wholesale electricity market and confirm previous findings that a market-driven development of demand response with the internalization of the CO_2 externality is the most efficient approach. (authors)

On Long-Term Transmission Rights in the Nordic Electricity Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petr Spodniak

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In vein with the new energy market rules drafted in the EU this paper presents and discusses two contract types for hedging the risks connected to long-term transmission rights, the financial transmission right (FTR and the electricity price area differentials (EPAD that are used in the Nordic electricity markets. The possibility to replicate the FTR contracts with a combination of EPAD contracts is presented and discussed. Based on historical evidence and empirical analysis of ten Nordic interconnectors and twenty bidding areas, we investigate the pricing accuracy of the replicated FTR contracts by quantifying ex-post forward risk premia. The results show that the majority of the studied FTR contain a negative risk premium, especially the monthly and the quarterly contracts. Reverse flow (unnatural pricing was identified for two interconnectors. From a theoretical policy point of view the results imply that it may be possible to continue with the EPAD-based system by using EPAD Combos in the Nordic countries, even if FTR contracts would prevail elsewhere in the EU. In practice the pricing of bi-directional EPAD contracts is more complex and may not always be very efficient. The efficiency of the EPAD market structure should be discussed from various points of view before accepting their status quo as a replacement for FTRs in the Nordic electricity markets.

Opportunities for electricity storage in deregulating markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graves, F.; Jenkin, T.; Murphy, D.

1999-01-01

This article addresses the value of electricity storage and its ability to take advantage of emerging energy arbitrage opportunities: buying power when it is inexpensive, and reselling it at a higher price. The focus of this article is on electricity markets and the opportunities they present for a merchant storage device, rather than on storage technologies themselves. There are a number of existing and emerging storage technologies: pumped hydro, various batteries, compressed air energy storage (CAES), superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES), flywheels--even conventional hydro has storage-like properties. However, all these technologies operated on the same basic principle of exploiting short-term differentials in electricity prices: buy low, sell high (a strategy that is actually meaningful in electricity markets, unlike in financial markets). The object of this article is to develop and demonstrate a means for assessing the potential value of storage in different electricity markets, rather than to attempt to assess the prospects of a particular technology. The approach taken here is to look at price data from a number of actual electricity markets to determine what opportunities they might offer to a generic storage device. A storage technology is described here by its basic performance parameters--charge and generate capacity, energy inventory limits, and efficiency--which are sufficient to assess the basic economic potential of storage in a given market. The authors look primarily at US markets, but also compare and contrast findings with the situation in foreign markets in the U.K., Norway, Canada, and Australia, and discuss how market structure can influence the value of storage. Moreover, the authors use empirically observed relationships between hourly and 5 x 16 blocked prices to infer a rule for adjusting the value of storage assets in regions where only blocked price information is available

Performance of batteries for electric vehicles on short and longer term

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gerssen - Gondelach, Sarah|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/355262436; Faaij, André P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

2012-01-01

In this work, the prospects of available and new battery technologies for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are examined. Five selected battery technologies are assessed on battery performance and cost in the short, medium and long term. Driving cycle simulations are carried out to assess the

Liberalization of power generation sector in the Croatian electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viskovic, Alfredo

2005-01-01

power generation sector with detailed description of the situation in Croatia. The analysis is given of possible variants of market relations' establishment and development, as well as of the corresponding repercussions on the short-term and long-term operations and development of power generation. All the above market development, including possible privatization of HEP

Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013: Market trends and projections to 2018

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-06-01

Renewable electricity generation increased strongly worldwide in 2012, and deployment is occurring in a greater number of markets. However, the story of renewable energy development is becoming more complex. Short-term indicators in some regions of the globe have pointed to increased challenges. Despite remaining high, global new investment in renewable energy fell in 2012. Policy uncertainties, economic challenges, incentive reductions and competition from other energy sources clouded the investment outlook for some markets. Some countries and regions have faced difficulties in integrating variable renewables in their power grids. The renewable manufacturing industry, particularly solar and wind, entered a deeper period of restructuring and consolidation. Nevertheless, despite economic, policy and industry turbulence, the underlying fundamentals for renewable deployment remain robust. Even with challenges in some countries, more positive developments elsewhere continue to drive global growth. Competitive opportunities for renewables are emerging across traditional and new markets. While OECD countries remain a driver of renewable power development, non-OECD countries are increasingly accounting for overall growth. The roles of biofuels for transport and renewable heat are also increasing, though at somewhat slower rates than renewable electricity. The Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013 assesses market trends for the renewable electricity, biofuels for transport and renewable heat sectors, identifying drivers and challenges to deployment, and making projections through 2018. The analysis features in-depth renewable electricity market analysis and forecasts for a slate of countries in the OECD and non-OECD. The report also presents an outlook for renewable electricity technologies, global biofuels supply, final energy use of renewables for heat and prospects for renewable investment.

The French wholesale electricity and natural gas markets. 2009-2010 Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-10-01

This report on the operation of French wholesale electricity and natural gas markets deals with CRE wholesale market surveillance activities. It capitalizes on the experience gained in this area since the Law of the 7 December 2006 gave the CRE market surveillance powers. It is also based on feedback from discussions and interaction with the different stakeholders through public consultations. Market surveillance applies to: - electricity and gas, - bilateral transactions, trading on exchanges and cross-border transactions, - all maturities, from short-term markets to long-term contracts, - all French wholesale market counter-parties, whatever nationality they may have, - contracts for physical delivery, as well as to financial products. The Law also allows extensive surveillance of market participants' behaviour, in that the CRE can oversee not only transactions between operators but also their bids and the correspondence between the prices charged and the position of each operator. In order to address these different subjects, the electricity and gas sections of this report are divided into four main chapters dealing with the development of trading, wholesale market price trends, the fundamentals (generation, infrastructures) and, finally, the analysis of electricity transactions and the supply of alternative gas operators. Contents: A - Introduction, Summary of the report; B - Section 1 - The wholesale electricity markets: The development of the main segments of the wholesale market, Electricity prices, Analysis of generation and its transparency, Analysis of transactions; C - Section 2 - The wholesale gas markets: The development of gas trading, Gas prices, The gas infrastructures, The supply of players/new entrants; D - Section 3 - Appendices: Glossary, Index to graphs, Index to tables, Index to boxes

The French wholesale electricity and natural gas markets. 2008 report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-12-01

This second report on the operation of French wholesale electricity and natural gas markets deals with CRE wholesale market surveillance activities. It follows on from the different work undertaken or announced in the first surveillance report and in the proceedings of the CRE deliberation held on the 8 January 2009. It capitalizes on the experience gained in this area since the Law of the 7 December 2006 gave the CRE market surveillance powers. It is also based on feedback from discussions and interaction with the different stakeholders, through the public consultations held by CRE in 2008 and 2009. market surveillance applies to: - electricity and gas, - bilateral transactions, trading on exchanges and cross-border transactions, - all maturities, from short-term markets to long-term contracts, - all French wholesale market counter-parties, whatever nationality they may have, - contracts for physical delivery, as well as to financial products. The Law also allows extensive surveillance of market participants' behaviour, in that the CRE can oversee not only transactions between operators but also their bids and the correspondence between the prices charged and the position of each operator. In order to address these different subjects, the electricity and gas sections of this report are divided into four main chapters dealing with the development of trading, wholesale market price trends, the fundamentals (generation, infrastructures) and, finally, the analysis of electricity transactions and the supply of alternative gas operators. Contents: A - Methodology notice, Introduction, Summary of the report; B - Section 1 - Wholesale electricity markets: The development of the main wholesale market segments, Monitoring of price formation in France in terms of fundamentals and in comparison with the main interconnected European markets, Analysis and transparency of generation, The analysis of transactions; C - Section 2 - Wholesale natural gas markets: The

A system dynamics analysis of the Nordic electricity market: The transition from fossil fuelled toward a renewable supply within a liberalized electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vogstad, Klaus-Ole

2005-07-01

A system dynamic model to analyze long-term versus short-term implications of various energy policies within the context of the Nordic electricity market has been developed. The model itself provides a theory of the development of the Nordic electricity market in response to various energy policies, both in the long and the short term. The model includes generation scheduling, demand, price formation, investment decisions, resource availability and to some extent technology progress as endogenous. Thus, explanations of the model behaviour can be found from within the model. As examples of use, the model/modelling concept addresses two important questions on the energy policy agenda. First the marginal C02-emission controversy has been study, whether building gas power in Norway increase or reduce Nordic C02-emissions. The results were that in the short run, some emission reductions can be obtained due to substitution of existing coal units by operations of the market, but this effect was found to be modest. Existing gas power is also substituted, plus some bio. In the long run, there are also some investment substitutions of renewables. These effects do not appear to be significant in the short run, but in the long run, the investment rate of renewables is reduced as a consequence of reduced prices from gas. The reduced investments in renewables results in increased emissions. Some increase in demand is also to be expected from adding gas power, due to price-elasticity of demand. The net result is that gas power is likely to increase C02-emissions, which contradicts the current belief as well as results from other electricity market models that omit the long-term mechanisms such as investment decisions and technology progress. The second study analyzed the current Swedish TGC market at the time of the introduction. The purpose was to assist market design. It was found that the current Swedish TGC market design is likely to crash, due to the slow adjustment of the

A system dynamics analysis of the Nordic electricity market: The transition from fossil fuelled toward a renewable supply within a liberalized electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vogstad, Klaus-Ole

2005-01-01

A system dynamic model to analyze long-term versus short-term implications of various energy policies within the context of the Nordic electricity market has been developed. The model itself provides a theory of the development of the Nordic electricity market in response to various energy policies, both in the long and the short term. The model includes generation scheduling, demand, price formation, investment decisions, resource availability and to some extent technology progress as endogenous. Thus, explanations of the model behaviour can be found from within the model. As examples of use, the model/modelling concept addresses two important questions on the energy policy agenda. First the marginal C02-emission controversy has been study, whether building gas power in Norway increase or reduce Nordic C02-emissions. The results were that in the short run, some emission reductions can be obtained due to substitution of existing coal units by operations of the market, but this effect was found to be modest. Existing gas power is also substituted, plus some bio. In the long run, there are also some investment substitutions of renewables. These effects do not appear to be significant in the short run, but in the long run, the investment rate of renewables is reduced as a consequence of reduced prices from gas. The reduced investments in renewables results in increased emissions. Some increase in demand is also to be expected from adding gas power, due to price-elasticity of demand. The net result is that gas power is likely to increase C02-emissions, which contradicts the current belief as well as results from other electricity market models that omit the long-term mechanisms such as investment decisions and technology progress. The second study analyzed the current Swedish TGC market at the time of the introduction. The purpose was to assist market design. It was found that the current Swedish TGC market design is likely to crash, due to the slow adjustment of the

Distributional modeling and short-term forecasting of electricity prices by Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serinaldi, Francesco

2011-01-01

In the context of the liberalized and deregulated electricity markets, price forecasting has become increasingly important for energy company's plans and market strategies. Within the class of the time series models that are used to perform price forecasting, the subclasses of methods based on stochastic time series and causal models commonly provide point forecasts, whereas the corresponding uncertainty is quantified by approximate or simulation-based confidence intervals. Aiming to improve the uncertainty assessment, this study introduces the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to model the dynamically varying distribution of prices. The GAMLSS allow fitting a variety of distributions whose parameters change according to covariates via a number of linear and nonlinear relationships. In this way, price periodicities, trends and abrupt changes characterizing both the position parameter (linked to the expected value of prices), and the scale and shape parameters (related to price volatility, skewness, and kurtosis) can be explicitly incorporated in the model setup. Relying on the past behavior of the prices and exogenous variables, the GAMLSS enable the short-term (one-day ahead) forecast of the entire distribution of prices. The approach was tested on two datasets from the widely studied California Power Exchange (CalPX) market, and the less mature Italian Power Exchange (IPEX). CalPX data allow comparing the GAMLSS forecasting performance with published results obtained by different models. The study points out that the GAMLSS framework can be a flexible alternative to several linear and nonlinear stochastic models. - Research Highlights: ► Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) are used to model electricity prices' time series. ► GAMLSS provide the entire dynamicaly varying distribution function of prices resorting to a suitable set of covariates that drive the instantaneous values of the parameters

Modelling short and long-term risks in power markets: Empirical evidence from Nord Pool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomikos, Nikos K.; Soldatos, Orestes A.

2010-01-01

In this paper we propose a three-factor spike model that accounts for different speeds of mean reversion between normal and spiky shocks in the Scandinavian power market. In this model both short and long-run factors are unobservable and are hence estimated as latent variables using the Kalman filter. The proposed model has several advantages. First, it seems to capture in a parsimonious way the most important risks that practitioners face in the market, such as spike risk, short-term risk and long-term risk. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium observed in the market and improves the fit between theoretical and observed forward prices, particularly for long-dated forward contracts. Finally, closed-form solutions for forward contracts, derived from the model, are consistent with the fact that the correlation between contracts of different maturities is imperfect. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful policy analysis and financial engineering tool to market participants for risk management and derivative pricing particularly for long-dated contracts.

The market value and impact of offshore wind on the electricity spot market: Evidence from Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ederer, Nikolaus

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Market value of offshore wind based on feed-in and weather data is assessed. • Merit order effect caused by wind energy is simulated for 2006–2014. • Results indicate same impact of on- and offshore wind on market price and value. • Steadier wind resource offshore imposes less variability on market price. • Characteristic of variable wind feed-in cannot be blamed for price deterioration. - Abstract: Although the expansion of offshore wind has recently increased in Germany, as in other countries, it is still forced to defend its role in long-term energy policy plans, particularly against its onshore counterpart, to secure future expansion targets and financial support. The objective of this article is to investigate the economic effects of offshore wind on the electricity spot market and thus open up another perspective that has not been part of the debate about offshore vs. onshore wind thus far. A comprehensive assessment based on a large amount of market, feed-in and weather data in Germany revealed that the market value of offshore wind is generally higher than that of onshore wind. Simulating the merit order effect on the German day-ahead electricity market for the short term and long term in the years 2006–2014 aimed to identify the reason for this observation and show whether it is also an indication of a lower impact on the electricity spot market due to a steadier wind resource prevailing offshore. Although the results suggest no difference regarding the impact on market price and value, they indeed reveal that offshore wind imposes less variability on the spot market price than onshore wind. In addition, the long-term simulation proved that the ongoing price deterioration cannot be blamed on the characteristic of variable wind production

Electricity market design of the future; Strommarktdesign der Zukunft

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peek, Markus; Diels, Robert [r2b energy consulting GmbH, Koeln (Germany)

2016-02-15

The transformation of the power generation system, to one in which renewable energies will form a cornerstone, will change the requirements for all market actors. To achieve the goals of the German Energiewende ('energy transition'), greater flexibility in production and consumption is of particular importance. Flexibility enables the cost-effective integration of the fluctuating actual feed-in of renewable energies. On the one hand, the technical options for reducing existing technical inflexibilities are given to a considerable extent. On the other hand, analyses of the transnational compensation effects of load and renewable energy supply (RES) feed-in show that flexibility requirements can be reduced significantly in a common electricity market. Electricity markets in which there is open technological competition are an appropriate instrument for the flexibilization of the power supply system. In the short term, the mechanisms of competitive electricity markets ensure an efficient synchronization of supply and demand. Over the medium and long term, the market creates efficient incentives to adapt the generation system and the behavior of consumers to future needs, resulting from the changes in the residual load structure. But at the same time, in recent years the occurrence of negative electricity prices in situations with significantly positive residual loads show that flexibility restraints exist. The causes of these restraints are at least partly due to the market design or the regulatory framework. On the one hand, there are barriers to market entry and, on the other hand, price signals from the electricity markets do not reach all market actors or reach them distortedly. To enable the cost effective development of the different flexibility options in an open technology competition, restraints resulting from market design and the regulatory framework (e. g. in the framework of grid charges, the market and product design of control power markets

Short-Term Load Forecast in Electric Energy System in Bulgaria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Asenova

2010-01-01

Full Text Available As the accuracy of the electricity load forecast is crucial in providing better cost effective risk management plans, this paper proposes a Short Term Electricity Load Forecast (STLF model with high forecasting accuracy. Two kind of neural networks, Multilayer Perceptron network model and Radial Basis Function network model, are presented and compared using the mean absolute percentage error. The data used in the models are electricity load historical data. Even though the very good performance of the used model for the load data, weather parameters, especially the temperature, take important part for the energy predicting which is taken into account in this paper. A comparative evaluation between a traditional statistical method and artificial neural networks is presented.

Cap-and-Trade Modeling and Analysis: Congested Electricity Market Equilibrium

Science.gov (United States)

Limpaitoon, Tanachai

This dissertation presents an equilibrium framework for analyzing the impact of cap-and-trade regulation on transmission-constrained electricity market. The cap-and-trade regulation of greenhouse gas emissions has gained momentum in the past decade. The impact of the regulation and its efficacy in the electric power industry depend on interactions of demand elasticity, transmission network, market structure, and strategic behavior of firms. I develop an equilibrium model of an oligopoly electricity market in conjunction with a market for tradable emissions permits to study the implications of such interactions. My goal is to identify inefficiencies that may arise from policy design elements and to avoid any unintended adverse consequences on the electric power sector. I demonstrate this modeling framework with three case studies examining the impact of carbon cap-and-trade regulation. In the first case study, I study equilibrium results under various scenarios of resource ownership and emission targets using a 24-bus IEEE electric transmission system. The second and third case studies apply the equilibrium model to a realistic electricity market, Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) 225-bus system with a detailed representation of the California market. In the first and second case studies, I examine oligopoly in electricity with perfect competition in the permit market. I find that under a stringent emission cap and a high degree of concentration of non-polluting firms, the electricity market is subject to potential abuses of market power. Also, market power can occur in the procurement of non-polluting energy through the permit market when non-polluting resources are geographically concentrated in a transmission-constrained market. In the third case study, I relax the competitive market structure assumption of the permit market by allowing oligopolistic competition in the market through a conjectural variation approach. A short-term equilibrium

Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the second quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding

Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter

2010-01-01

Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter [University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

2010-12-15

Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Energy Generation for a Photovoltaic System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dinh V.T.

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This article presents a short-term forecast of electric energy output of a photovoltaic (PV system towards Tomsk city, Russia climate variations (module temperature and solar irradiance. The system is located at Institute of Non-destructive Testing, Tomsk Polytechnic University. The obtained results show good agreement between actual data and prediction values.

Different approaches to supply adequacy in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosellon, J.

2006-01-01

There is a growing concern that liberalized electricity markets may not provide incentives for sufficient investment in generation capacity to meet future demand. This is problematic because electricity markets are characterized by short-term inelastic demand in which the long-term supply-demand balance cannot be achieved through a market-clearing price. Also, final consumers do not feel the need to engage in long-term contracts because they are usually isolated from spot prices by regulated tariffs. This paper presented some of the measures that have been proposed internationally to ensure a sufficient amount of generation capacity reserves. Measures such as strategic reserves, capacity payments, capacity requirements and call options were analyzed in terms of their degree of centralization or decentralization with regards to the amount of capacity and the price of capacity. Each one of these measures was analyzed in this paper to clarify their theoretical aspects as well as their international application and assessment. The analytical and practical strengths and weaknesses of each approach were discussed. Capacity payments and requirements alone were found to be inadequate both in theory and practice. It was suggested that capacity payments or requirements might work efficiently if combined with risk management approaches and hedging instruments that promote demand side participation. Regulatory intervention would then be focused on promoting rules that facilitate liquid markets for energy futures and risk management. 37 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

Different approaches to supply adequacy in electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosellon, J. [Centro de Investigacion y Dcencia Economicas, Mexico City (Mexico)

2006-10-01

There is a growing concern that liberalized electricity markets may not provide incentives for sufficient investment in generation capacity to meet future demand. This is problematic because electricity markets are characterized by short-term inelastic demand in which the long-term supply-demand balance cannot be achieved through a market-clearing price. Also, final consumers do not feel the need to engage in long-term contracts because they are usually isolated from spot prices by regulated tariffs. This paper presented some of the measures that have been proposed internationally to ensure a sufficient amount of generation capacity reserves. Measures such as strategic reserves, capacity payments, capacity requirements and call options were analyzed in terms of their degree of centralization or decentralization with regards to the amount of capacity and the price of capacity. Each one of these measures was analyzed in this paper to clarify their theoretical aspects as well as their international application and assessment. The analytical and practical strengths and weaknesses of each approach were discussed. Capacity payments and requirements alone were found to be inadequate both in theory and practice. It was suggested that capacity payments or requirements might work efficiently if combined with risk management approaches and hedging instruments that promote demand side participation. Regulatory intervention would then be focused on promoting rules that facilitate liquid markets for energy futures and risk management. 37 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azevedo, F.; Vale, Z.A.; Khodr, H.M.; Oliveira, P.B. Moura

2010-01-01

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn. (author)

Operation of Modern Distribution Power Systems in Competitive Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao

, DG units, loads and electricity price are studied. Further, the effect of energy storage systems will be considered, and an optimal operation strategy for energy storage devices in a large scale wind power system in the electricity market is proposed. The western Danish power system, which has large...... strategy for trading wind power in the Danish short-term electricity market in order to minimize the imbalance costs for regulation. A load optimization method based on spot price for demand side management in Denmark is proposed in order to save the energy costs for 3 types of typical Danish consumers...... maximum profit of the BESS is proposed. Two kinds of BESS, based on polysulfide-bromine (PSB) and vanadium redox (VRB) battery technologies, are studied. Optimal operation strategies of PEV in the spot market are then proposed in order to decrease the energy cost for PEV owners. Furthermore...

Integrating wind output with bulk power operations and wholesale electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirst, E.

2002-01-01

Wind farms have three characteristics that complicate their widespread application as an electricity resource: limited control, unpredictability and variability. Therefore the integration of wind output into bulk power electric systems is qualitatively different from that of other types of generators. The electric system operator must move other generators up or down to offset the time-varying wind fluctuations. Such movements raise the costs of fuel and maintenance for these other generators. Not only is wind power different, it is new. The operators of bulk power systems have limited experience in integrating wind output into the larger system. As a consequence, market rules that treat wind fairly - neither subsidizing nor penalizing its operation - have not yet been developed. The lack of data and analytical methods encourages wind advocates and sceptics to rely primarily on their biases and beliefs in suggesting how wind should be integrated into bulk power systems. This project helps fill this data and analysis gap. Specifically, it develops and applies a quantitative method for the integration of a wind resource into a large electric system. The method permits wind to bid its output into a short-term forward market (specifically, an hour-ahead energy market) or to appear in real time and accept only intrahour and hourly imbalance payments for the unscheduled energy it delivers to the system. Finally, the method analyses the short-term (minute-to-minute) variation in wind output to determine the regulation requirement the wind resource imposes on the electrical system. (author)

Operations Management in Short Term Power Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heide-Jørgensen, Ditte Mølgård

Electricity market models have often been modelled as deterministic or at most two-stage stochastic models with an hourly time resolution. This thesis looks into possible ways of extending such models and formulating new models to handle both higher time resolution than hourly and stochastics wit...

Optimal Charging of Electric Vehicles with Trading on the Intraday Electricity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ilham Naharudinsyah

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Trading on the energy market is a possible way to reduce the electricity costs of charging electric vehicles at public charging stations. In many European countries, it is possible to trade electricity until shortly before the period of delivery on so called intraday electricity markets. In the present work, the potential for reducing the electricity costs by trading on the intraday market is investigated using the example of the German market. Based on simulations, the authors reveal that by optimizing the charging schedule together with the trading on the intraday electricity market, the costs can be reduced by around 8% compared to purchasing all the required energy from the energy supplier. By allowing the charging station operator to resell the energy to the intraday electricity market, an additional cost reduction of around 1% can be achieved. Besides the potential cost savings, the impacts of the trading unit and of the lead time of the intraday electricity market on the costs are investigated. The authors reveal that the achievable electricity costs can be strongly affected by the lead time, while the trading unit has only a minor effect on the costs.

Design and Analysis of Electrical Distribution Networks and Balancing Markets in the UK: A New Framework with Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vijayanarasimha Hindupur Pakka

2016-02-01

Full Text Available We present a framework for the design and simulation of electrical distribution systems and short term electricity markets specific to the UK. The modelling comprises packages relating to the technical and economic features of the electrical grid. The first package models the medium/low distribution networks with elements such as transformers, voltage regulators, distributed generators, composite loads, distribution lines and cables. This model forms the basis for elementary analysis such as load flow and short circuit calculations and also enables the investigation of effects of integrating distributed resources, voltage regulation, resource scheduling and the like. The second part of the modelling exercise relates to the UK short term electricity market with specific features such as balancing mechanism and bid-offer strategies. The framework is used for investigating methods of voltage regulation using multiple control technologies, to demonstrate the effects of high penetration of wind power on balancing prices and finally use these prices towards achieving demand response through aggregated prosumers.

From Market Uncertainty to Policy Uncertainty for Investment in Power Generation: Real Options for NPP on Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomsic, Zeljko

2014-01-01

In the electricity sector, market participants must make decisions about capacity choice in a situation of radical uncertainty about future market conditions. Sector is normally characterised by non-storability and periodic and stochastic demand fluctuations. In these cases capacity determination is a decision for the long term, whereas production is adjusted in the short run. Capacities need to be installed well in advance (decision for investment even earlier because of long construction time and even longer in case of NPP to prepare all needed legal, financial and physical infrastructure), at times when firms face considerable demand and cost uncertainty when choosing their capacity. Paper looks on the main contributions in investment planning under uncertainty, in particular in the electricity market for capital intensive investments like NPP. The relationship between market and non-market factors (recent UK policy example) in determining investment signals in competitive electricity markets was analysed. Paper analyse the ability of competitive electricity markets to deliver the desired quantity and type of generation capacity and also investigates the variety of market imperfections operating in electricity generation and their impact on long-term dynamics for generation capacity, the most capital-intensive of the liberalised functions in the electricity supply industry. Paper analyses how price formation influences investment signals. Today, investment decisions are made by several operators that act independently. Number of factors (including market power, wholesale price volatility, lack of liquidity in the wholesale and financial market, policy and regulatory risks etc.) contribute to polluting the price signal and generating sub-optimal behaviour. Climate change policies can easily distort market signals, insulating renewables generation from market dynamics. This in turn reduces the proportion of the market that is effectively opened to competitive

Performance of fuzzy approach in Malaysia short-term electricity load forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Mansor, Rosnalini; Zulkifli, Malina; Yusof, Muhammad Mat; Ismail, Mohd Isfahani; Ismail, Suzilah; Yin, Yip Chee

2014-12-01

Many activities such as economic, education and manafucturing would paralyse with limited supply of electricity but surplus contribute to high operating cost. Therefore electricity load forecasting is important in order to avoid shortage or excess. Previous finding showed festive celebration has effect on short-term electricity load forecasting. Being a multi culture country Malaysia has many major festive celebrations such as Eidul Fitri, Chinese New Year and Deepavali but they are moving holidays due to non-fixed dates on the Gregorian calendar. This study emphasis on the performance of fuzzy approach in forecasting electricity load when considering the presence of moving holidays. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was estimated using simulated data by including model simplification concept (manual or automatic), day types (weekdays or weekend), public holidays and lags of electricity load. The result indicated that day types, public holidays and several lags of electricity load were significant in the model. Overall, model simplification improves fuzzy performance due to less variables and rules.

A flexible energy market - electric power reserves at the place of the end-user

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Livik, Klaus; Groenli, Helle; Fretheim, Stig; Feilberg, Nicolai; Gjervan, Sverre; Dymbe, Lars

1996-01-01

If short-term as well as long-term prices in the electric power market are to be stable, then the market must be flexible and both energy and power related efforts must be taken at the end-user's place. The report analyses what type of actors in the electric power market are profiting from a flexible end-user market for energy and power. It is found that a flexible market has utilitarian value for end-users, network owners, suppliers, market operators and system operators. It is also clearly desirable from the point of view of the authorities. Considerable possibilities of developing the flexible energy and power market exist at the end-user. The possibilities can be realized by means of technological developments and political incentives such as by rules for monopoly control. End-user measures may have considerable utilitarian value, socio economically. Especially in areas with high marginal costs of power transport will network owners see the advantages of such measures

Short-Term Energy Outlook: Quarterly projections. Fourth quarter 1993

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-11-05

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

Competition policies on the electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dubois, U.

2008-01-01

This article puts forward a critical analysis of European competition instruments and practices in terms of market power on the electricity wholesale markets. Due to the speck nature of electrical activities, competition policies come up against difficulties of market power identification at first, since there is no model for detecting perfectly the potential or real exertion of market power in this sector. What is more, since competition authorities rely on specific intervention methods, their ability to limit the exertion of market power is relatively low. For a large number of their interventions involves controlling concentrations. In the light of this double phenomenon, this article discusses some recent developments of European competition policies on the electricity wholesale markets. The sector inquiry of 2007 seems to mark the start of a new competition policy practice in the electricity sector. The initiative and decision-making power now seem to be nesting mainly at a European level where action is not only to be found in terms of controlling mergers and acquisitions, but also stretches to involve an in-depth evaluation of the way the different markets work. This action is manifested in decisions to investigate some companies as well as legislative proposals in the framework of the third package. Thus we are moving towards a greater monitoring of electricity markets using more formal supervision instruments and on a more continuous basis. (author)

Research document no. 24. The integration of european electric markets: from the national markets juxtaposition to the establishment of a regional market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, D.

2000-11-01

After the transcription of the electricity directive in national legislations, the European electricity market appears to be a vast set of juxtaposed markets which are weakly connected at the level of their wholesale contracts compartment. Referring to the technological peculiarities of electricity as a commodity, the paper identifies the direct conditions of regional integration of the electricity markets, those which would favour cross-border trade and allow to be near the normal functioning of a regional commodity market. The infrastructure network dependence and the need of a stringent technical coordination necessitate to unify the operation of the different systems and the rules of access, or at the least to come near this unification by strong coordination. A second major condition, which is not fully debated, is the increasing connexion of short-term markets, via daily physical trade and emergence of a European financial market, which could trade various standardised contracts referring to a single hourly spot price, or to prices in various delivery points. To reach such an integration, two paths are possible: either concentration into one single organised power exchange as the Nordic pool, or rules harmonization of the various power exchanges which would be a minimal requirement to allow arbitrations between them. (author)

Hybrid ARIMAX quantile regression method for forecasting short term electricity consumption in east java

Science.gov (United States)

Prastuti, M.; Suhartono; Salehah, NA

2018-04-01

The need for energy supply, especially for electricity in Indonesia has been increasing in the last past years. Furthermore, the high electricity usage by people at different times leads to the occurrence of heteroscedasticity issue. Estimate the electricity supply that could fulfilled the community’s need is very important, but the heteroscedasticity issue often made electricity forecasting hard to be done. An accurate forecast of electricity consumptions is one of the key challenges for energy provider to make better resources and service planning and also take control actions in order to balance the electricity supply and demand for community. In this paper, hybrid ARIMAX Quantile Regression (ARIMAX-QR) approach was proposed to predict the short-term electricity consumption in East Java. This method will also be compared to time series regression using RMSE, MAPE, and MdAPE criteria. The data used in this research was the electricity consumption per half-an-hour data during the period of September 2015 to April 2016. The results show that the proposed approach can be a competitive alternative to forecast short-term electricity in East Java. ARIMAX-QR using lag values and dummy variables as predictors yield more accurate prediction in both in-sample and out-sample data. Moreover, both time series regression and ARIMAX-QR methods with addition of lag values as predictor could capture accurately the patterns in the data. Hence, it produces better predictions compared to the models that not use additional lag variables.

Short-term Canadian natural gas deliverability 2008-2010 : an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-10-01

This document examined the factors that affect gas supply in the short term and presented an outlook for deliverability through 2010. Its primary purpose was to advance public understanding of the short-term gas supply situation in Canada. For the past several years, Canadian natural gas has provided about 25 per cent of combined Canadian and U.S. production. Canadian gas deliverability remained within a narrow range from 2000 to mid-2007 at around 483 million cubic metres and has since begun to decline. About 98 per cent of the Canadian volume comes from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), with most of the rest coming from Atlantic Canada. Although drilling and development activity in the WCSB has depended on the price of natural gas relative to costs, that price was influenced by uncertainties such as weather-driven market demand, changes in natural gas supply, cost, attractiveness of other basins, availability of imported liquefied natural gas and possible supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. Shale gas and tight gas prospects in the Horn River and Montney plays of northeast British Columbia have attracted considerable interest from Canada's upstream industry. Early stages of shale gas development are also underway in Quebec and the Maritimes. However, the viability of large scale commercial development of shale gas in Canada has yet to be proven. In order to reflect the short-term uncertainty of the North American natural gas market, this report project deliverability under 3 cases that reflect different levels of drilling investment, namely reference case, high case and low case scenarios. 4 tabs., 12 figs

Short-term Canadian natural gas deliverability 2008-2010 : an energy market assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-10-15

This document examined the factors that affect gas supply in the short term and presented an outlook for deliverability through 2010. Its primary purpose was to advance public understanding of the short-term gas supply situation in Canada. For the past several years, Canadian natural gas has provided about 25 per cent of combined Canadian and U.S. production. Canadian gas deliverability remained within a narrow range from 2000 to mid-2007 at around 483 million cubic metres and has since begun to decline. About 98 per cent of the Canadian volume comes from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), with most of the rest coming from Atlantic Canada. Although drilling and development activity in the WCSB has depended on the price of natural gas relative to costs, that price was influenced by uncertainties such as weather-driven market demand, changes in natural gas supply, cost, attractiveness of other basins, availability of imported liquefied natural gas and possible supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. Shale gas and tight gas prospects in the Horn River and Montney plays of northeast British Columbia have attracted considerable interest from Canada's upstream industry. Early stages of shale gas development are also underway in Quebec and the Maritimes. However, the viability of large scale commercial development of shale gas in Canada has yet to be proven. In order to reflect the short-term uncertainty of the North American natural gas market, this report project deliverability under 3 cases that reflect different levels of drilling investment, namely reference case, high case and low case scenarios. 4 tabs., 12 figs.

Managing total corporate electricity/energy market risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henney, A.; Keers, G.

1998-01-01

The banking industry has developed a tool kit of very useful value at risk techniques for hedging risk, but these techniques must be adapted to the special complexities of the electricity market. This paper starts with a short history of the use of value-at-risk (VAR) techniques in banking risk management and then examines the specific and, in many instances, complex risk management challenges faced by electric companies from the behavior of prices in electricity markets and from the character of generation and electric retailing risks. The third section describes the main methods for making VAR calculations along with an analysis of their suitability for analyzing the risks of electricity portfolios and the case for using profit at risk and downside risk as measures of risk. The final section draws the threads together and explains how to look at managing total corporate electricity market risk, which is a big step toward managing total corporate energy market risk

Analysis of long-term guarantee of supply in power markets: Application of the marginal theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parrilla, Ernesto; Vazquez, Carlos

2005-06-01

In this paper the marginal theory is applied to discuss the different long-term equilibria that could be reached in an electricity market depending on the market participants' (generators, consumers and the regulator) goals and constraints. The aim is to identify the key elements of a possible market failure in providing generation adequacy - immature demand, regulated tariffs, long-term contracting, different agents perception of the market risks, etc - and to study their influence in the long-term market equilibrium. Furthermore, we analyze several of the different capacity mechanisms that could be used to ensure generation adequacy, such as: short-term capacity payments, long-term capacity payments and capacity markets. This final analysis includes an estimation of how useful each method is to compensate the market failures that we have previously identified

Liberalising European electricity markets: opportunities and risks for a sustainable power sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringel, M.

2003-01-01

The process of liberalising European electricity markets, encompassing a wide range of restructuring activities, has mainly been spurred by the attempt to increase the economic efficiency of the whole sector. This process might be used to trigger a development towards a sustainable power sector by increasing the use of renewable energy sources and enhancing energy efficiency on the supply and demand side. However, by taking a closer look at the current trends of the European electricity markets, it becomes obvious that the liberalisation not only implies opportunities but also risks for the creation of a sustainable power sector. Many of these risks are due to market distortions and imperfections caused by the delay in creating a fully functional single European market. Thus, in the short-term, the market liberalisation tends to constitute more risks than opportunities without government actions to prevent these risks. In the long run, though, the efficiency gains of the sector and the appearance of new market factors are likely to bring forth the opportunities of liberalisation and actively foster a transformation towards a sustainable electricity sector. (author)

The futures and forward price differential in the Nordic electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wimschulte, Jens [University of Regensburg (Germany)

2010-08-15

This note investigates price differentials between electricity forwards and portfolios of short-term futures with identical delivery periods at the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool). Since both contracts are traded at the same exchange, there is no influence of, for example, different market microstructure and default risk when examining the effect of the marking-to-market of futures on the price differential. Although the prices of the futures portfolios are, on average, below the corresponding forward prices, these price differentials are, on average, not statistically significant and not economically significant when taking transaction costs into account. Given the characteristics of the electricity contracts under observation, this is consistent with the predictions of the model and indicates efficient pricing in the Nord Pool forward market in contrast to previous results. (author)

The futures and forward price differential in the Nordic electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wimschulte, Jens

2010-01-01

This note investigates price differentials between electricity forwards and portfolios of short-term futures with identical delivery periods at the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool). Since both contracts are traded at the same exchange, there is no influence of, for example, different market microstructure and default risk when examining the effect of the marking-to-market of futures on the price differential. Although the prices of the futures portfolios are, on average, below the corresponding forward prices, these price differentials are, on average, not statistically significant and not economically significant when taking transaction costs into account. Given the characteristics of the electricity contracts under observation, this is consistent with the predictions of the model and indicates efficient pricing in the Nord Pool forward market in contrast to previous results. (author)

Retail competition in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Defeuilley, Christophe

2009-01-01

The introduction of competition into retail electricity supply gave rise to great expectations. However, to date, its performance has proven less than stellar, owing primarily to the theoretical concepts underpinning this reform, which draw heavily on the Austrian school. Neither consumers' decision processes nor this sector's technical paradigm were adequately accounted for, leading to an uncorrect estimation of the expected impact of opening to competition. Short- and medium-term prospects for the evolution of retail markets must be reconsidered from the perspective of greater stability: not a generalization of competition, but rather a persistent segmentation between active and inactive clients; not a large and rapid diffusion of radical innovations in commercialisation, with the potential for undermining the incumbents' positions

Hong Kong's electricity market beyond 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lam, Pun Lee

2004-01-01

In Hong Kong, electricity is supplied by two private utilities: Hongkong Electric and CLP Power (CLP). Both are regulated under the Scheme of Control (SOC). The SOC is a formal, long-term regulatory contract of 15 years, signed between a private firm and the Hong Kong Government. Under the SOC, the two electric utilities are subject to both rate-of-return control and price control. The current scheme will expire by 2008. In this paper, we propose a gradual and cautious approach to the introduction of market reform into the electricity industry in Hong Kong. For regulated markets, the government should consider replacing the SOC with performance-based regulation for wire businesses and the non-contestable market. For competitive markets, the government should consider introducing competitive tendering for new sources in the generation market and liberalising the supply market in phases. (author)

Hong Kong's electricity market beyond 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lam, P.-L.

2004-01-01

In Hong Kong, electricity is supplied by two private utilities: Hongkong Electric and CLP Power (CLP). Both are regulated under the Scheme of Control (SOC). The SOC is a formal, long-term regulatory contract of 15 years, signed between a private firm and the Hong Kong Government. Under the SOC, the two electric utilities are subject to both rate-of-return control and price control. The current scheme will expire by 2008. In this paper, we propose a gradual and cautious approach to the introduction of market reform into the electricity industry in Hong Kong. For regulated markets, the government should consider replacing the SOC with performance-based regulation for wire businesses and the non-contestable market. For competitive markets, the government should consider introducing competitive tendering for new sources in the generation market and liberalising the supply market in phases

On the evaluation of market power and market dominance-The Nordic electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hellmer, Stefan; Warell, Linda

2009-01-01

This paper studies different concentration and dominance measures using structural indexes used to initially screen the competitive situation in a market. The Nordic and Swedish electricity markets are used as the empirical cases. Market concentration issues in the Nordic electricity market in general and in Sweden in particular have been, at least in initial screenings, approached by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). This article uses an alternative measure to HHI, which is based on market shares of the two largest firms in the market. The results shows that only the Swedish wholesale market has a firm that can be regarded as dominant, but only during very short periods. The results from a hypothetical merger between the second and third largest company in the Swedish wholesale market shows that when the dominant position of the largest firm is reduced, by increasing the size of the second largest firm, the threshold value indicates that competition actually will increase (contradicting to the HHI).

Real-time energy resources scheduling considering short-term and very short-term wind forecast

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silva, Marco; Sousa, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Vale, Zita [Polytechnic of Porto (Portugal). GECAD - Knowledge Engineering and Decision Support Research Center

2012-07-01

This paper proposes an energy resources management methodology based on three distinct time horizons: day-ahead scheduling, hour-ahead scheduling, and real-time scheduling. In each scheduling process the update of generation and consumption operation and of the storage and electric vehicles storage status are used. Besides the new operation conditions, the most accurate forecast values of wind generation and of consumption using results of short-term and very short-term methods are used. A case study considering a distribution network with intensive use of distributed generation and electric vehicles is presented. (orig.)

Frequency domain methods applied to forecasting electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trapero, Juan R.; Pedregal, Diego J.

2009-01-01

The changes taking place in electricity markets during the last two decades have produced an increased interest in the problem of forecasting, either load demand or prices. Many forecasting methodologies are available in the literature nowadays with mixed conclusions about which method is most convenient. This paper focuses on the modeling of electricity market time series sampled hourly in order to produce short-term (1 to 24 h ahead) forecasts. The main features of the system are that (1) models are of an Unobserved Component class that allow for signal extraction of trend, diurnal, weekly and irregular components; (2) its application is automatic, in the sense that there is no need for human intervention via any sort of identification stage; (3) the models are estimated in the frequency domain; and (4) the robustness of the method makes possible its direct use on both load demand and price time series. The approach is thoroughly tested on the PJM interconnection market and the results improve on classical ARIMA models. (author)

Long-term dynamics of investment decisions in electricity markets with variable renewables development and adequacy objectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petitet, Marie

2016-01-01

In liberalised electricity systems, power markets are expected to ensure the long-term coordination of investments in order to guarantee security of supply, sustainability and competitiveness. In the reference energy-only market, it relies on the ability of power markets - where the hourly price is aligned with the marginal cost of the system - to provide an adequate price-signal for investors. However, in practice, questions have been raised about its ability to trigger investments in Low-Carbon Technologies (LCT) including in particular Renewable Energy Sources of Electricity (RES-E), and its ability to ensure capacity adequacy. After a characterisation of these market failures, this dissertation tackles the two research topics within a methodological framework based on a System Dynamics model developed to simulate private investment decisions in power markets. First, the results show that substituting out-of-market support mechanisms for RES-E by market-based investments helped by the sole implementation of a carbon price appears as a feasible solution to trigger RES-E development providing that there is a political commitment on a high carbon price. Second, it also appears that the energy-only market with price cap is ineffective to ensure capacity adequacy in a context of mature markets with conventional thermal power plants under transition paths which involve a stable electricity demand thank to energy efficiency efforts and the exogenous development of RES-E thanks to support mechanisms in the absence of a high and fixed carbon price. Adding a capacity market or removing the price cap both bring benefits in terms of Loss Of Load Expectation (LOLE) and social welfare. Moreover, considering two various energy transition scenarios and different assumptions about the risk aversion of private investors, the capacity market is identified as the best option for regulators among the considered market designs. (author) [fr

Electricity market 2001

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-09-01

The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. Sweden, Norway and Finland have had a common electricity market since 1996. The work of also reforming the Danish electricity market was begun in the year 2000. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition, to give the consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and expanded trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish National Energy Administration is the supervisory authority as specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and to regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of the 'Electricity market 2001' publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic market. Iceland is not included in the description. The publication also includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment. The publication contains data on electricity generation and use during the past years, structure of the electricity market, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic countries and other countries as well as impact of electricity generation system on the environment.

Electricity market 2001

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-09-01

The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. Sweden, Norway and Finland have had a common electricity market since 1996. The work of also reforming the Danish electricity market was begun in the year 2000. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition, to give the consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and expanded trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish National Energy Administration is the supervisory authority as specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and to regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of the 'Electricity market 2001' publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic market. Iceland is not included in the description. The publication also includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment. The publication contains data on electricity generation and use during the past years, structure of the electricity market, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic countries and other countries as well as impact of electricity generation system on the environment

Short-Term Planning of Hybrid Power System

Science.gov (United States)

Knežević, Goran; Baus, Zoran; Nikolovski, Srete

2016-07-01

In this paper short-term planning algorithm for hybrid power system consist of different types of cascade hydropower plants (run-of-the river, pumped storage, conventional), thermal power plants (coal-fired power plants, combined cycle gas-fired power plants) and wind farms is presented. The optimization process provides a joint bid of the hybrid system, and thus making the operation schedule of hydro and thermal power plants, the operation condition of pumped-storage hydropower plants with the aim of maximizing profits on day ahead market, according to expected hourly electricity prices, the expected local water inflow in certain hydropower plants, and the expected production of electrical energy from the wind farm, taking into account previously contracted bilateral agreement for electricity generation. Optimization process is formulated as hourly-discretized mixed integer linear optimization problem. Optimization model is applied on the case study in order to show general features of the developed model.

Electricity market 2000

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Korsfeldt, T.; Petsala, B.

2000-08-01

The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. Sweden, Norway and Finland have a common electricity market since 1996.The work of also reforming the Danish electricity market was begun in the year 2000. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition,to give the consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and expanded trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish National Energy Administration is the supervisory authority as specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and to regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of the present publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic markets.The publication includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment.

Electricity market 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korsfeldt, T.; Petsala, B.

2000-08-01

The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. Sweden, Norway and Finland have a common electricity market since 1996.The work of also reforming the Danish electricity market was begun in the year 2000. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition,to give the consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and expanded trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish National Energy Administration is the supervisory authority as specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and to regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of the present publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic markets.The publication includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment

The international electricity market infrastructure-insight from the nordic electricity market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ma, Zheng; Prljaca, Zerina; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

2016-01-01

This paper aims to provide an overview of an international electricity market for the emerging market players to understand and manipulate their roles and relationships in the market by analyzing the former, present, and future Nordic electricity market. The emerging market players...... and their relationships are also discussed in the paper. This paper outlines several suggestions for the future Nordic electricity market development. Furthermore, this paper provides a recommendation for countries interested in participating and developing the cross-national electricity markets with the discussion...... of the historical development of the Nordic electricity market....

Short term and medium term power distribution load forecasting by neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yalcinoz, T.; Eminoglu, U.

2005-01-01

Load forecasting is an important subject for power distribution systems and has been studied from different points of view. In general, load forecasts should be performed over a broad spectrum of time intervals, which could be classified into short term, medium term and long term forecasts. Several research groups have proposed various techniques for either short term load forecasting or medium term load forecasting or long term load forecasting. This paper presents a neural network (NN) model for short term peak load forecasting, short term total load forecasting and medium term monthly load forecasting in power distribution systems. The NN is used to learn the relationships among past, current and future temperatures and loads. The neural network was trained to recognize the peak load of the day, total load of the day and monthly electricity consumption. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to real load shapes from the Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation (TEDAS) in Nigde. The data represents the daily and monthly electricity consumption in Nigde, Turkey

Essays on restructured electricity markets

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholson, Emma Leah

This dissertation focuses on the performance of restructured electricity markets in the United States. In chapter 1, I study bidder-specific offer caps ("BSOCs") which are used to mitigate market power in three wholesale electricity markets. The price of electricity is determined through multi-unit uniform price auctions and BSOCs impose an upper limit, which is increasing in marginal cost, on each generator's bid. I apply BSOCs in both the uniform and discriminatory price auctions and characterize the equilibria in a two firm model with stochastic demand. BSOCs unambiguously increase expected production efficiency in the uniform price auction and they can increase the expected profit of the generator with the lower cap. Chapter 2, coauthored with Ramteen Sioshansi, Ph.D., compares two types of uniform price auction formats used in wholesale electricity markets, centrally committed markets and self committed markets. In centrally committed markets, generators submit two-part bids consisting of a fixed startup cost and a variable (per MWh) energy cost, and the auctioneer ensures that no generator operates at a loss. Generators in self committed markets must incorporate their startup costs into their one part energy bids. We derive Nash equilibria for both the centrally and self committed electricity markets in a model with two symmetric generators with nonconvex costs and deterministic demand. Using a numerical example, we demonstrate that if the caps on the bid elements are chosen appropriately, the two market designs are equivalent in terms of generator revenues and settlement costs. Regulators and prominent academic experts believe that electric restructuring polices have stifled investment in new generation capacity. In chapter 3 I seek to determine whether these fears are supported by empirical evidence. I examine both total investment in megawatts and the number of new investments across regions that adopted different electric restructuring policies to

Retail competition in electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Defeuilley, Christophe [LARSEN and EDF R and D, Fontenay aux Roses (France)

2009-02-15

The introduction of competition into retail electricity supply gave rise to great expectations. However, to date, its performance has proven less than stellar, owing primarily to the theoretical concepts underpinning this reform, which draw heavily on the Austrian school. Neither consumers' decision processes nor this sector's technical paradigm were adequately accounted for, leading to an uncorrect estimation of the expected impact of opening to competition. Short- and medium-term prospects for the evolution of retail markets must be reconsidered from the perspective of greater stability: not a generalization of competition, but rather a persistent segmentation between active and inactive clients; not a large and rapid diffusion of radical innovations in commercialisation, with the potential for undermining the incumbents' positions. (author)

Estimating zonal electricity supply curves in transmission-constrained electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahraei-Ardakani, Mostafa; Blumsack, Seth; Kleit, Andrew

2015-01-01

Many important electricity policy initiatives would directly affect the operation of electric power networks. This paper develops a method for estimating short-run zonal supply curves in transmission-constrained electricity markets that can be implemented quickly by policy analysts with training in statistical methods and with publicly available data. Our model enables analysis of distributional impacts of policies affecting operation of electric power grid. The method uses fuel prices and zonal electric loads to determine piecewise supply curves, identifying zonal electricity price and marginal fuel. We illustrate our methodology by estimating zonal impacts of Pennsylvania's Act 129, an energy efficiency and conservation policy. For most utilities in Pennsylvania, Act 129 would reduce the influence of natural gas on electricity price formation and increase the influence of coal. The total resulted savings would be around 267 million dollars, 82 percent of which would be enjoyed by the customers in Pennsylvania. We also analyze the impacts of imposing a $35/ton tax on carbon dioxide emissions. Our results show that the policy would increase the average prices in PJM by 47–89 percent under different fuel price scenarios in the short run, and would lead to short-run interfuel substitution between natural gas and coal. - Highlights: • We develop a method to estimate of zonal supply curves in electricity markets. • The model estimates zonal electricity prices and zonal fuel utilization. • The model implicitly captures the average impacts of transmission constraints. • Using the method, we project supply curves for the seventeen utility zones of PJM. • We use the estimated supply curves to study the impacts of Pennsylvania's Act 129 and a carbon tax of $35 per ton

Modelling the impact of market interventions on the strategic evolution of electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, Derek W.; Oliveira, Fernando S.

2005-01-01

In this paper, we seek to develop some model-based insights into this two-stage dynamic process linking market interventions with individual company performance through strategic asset trading and structural change. Essentially, this is achieved with an evolutionary, agent-based, computational model that is capable of simulating how a Cournot player, by interacting with his opponents, can rationally adapt his generation portfolio in order to increase value. The functional capabilities of the proposed computational approach facilitate: 1) The study of asset portfolio adaptation as a result of rational choice. This cannot be achieved with a static Cournot model that, by construction, does not take into account endogenously the rational choice of the installed capacities and technologies used by the players. Further, this evolutionary computational model internalizes the ''path dependencies'' as one of the determinants of portfolio adaptation. 2) The analysis of market structure as an endogenous co-evolutionary process, enabling an adaptive view of the impact of short-term regulatory policies on the evolution of the industry's market structure. 3) The analysis of the behavioural implications f the rational adaptation of players to regulatory interventions. This analysis is carried-out by modelling how players trade their assets in order to improve the value of their portfolio. Our model therefore incorporates two main components: a plant trading game and an electricity market game. The plant trading game simulates the interaction between electricity companies that trade generation plants. The electricity market game simulates the performance of portfolios of plant in an electricity market assuming Cournot players. From this two-stage modelling platform, we analyze two sorts of anti-trust interventions: (a) the ''structural changes'' of enforced divestiture and (b) the ''behavioural remedies'' (sic Competition commission) of capacity availability requirements. We have

Nuclear Power Plants in a Competitive Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jankauskas, V.

2002-01-01

Electricity demand is growing in the world by an average rate of 3% and, according to the International Energy Agency, is going to keep this pace of growth for the 1st quarter of the 21st century. At the same time, the role of the nuclear in the world energy mix is diminishing, and in 2020 only 9% of the world electricity will be produced at the nuclear plants versus 17% in 2000. The main reasons for the nuclear power diminishing share in the world market are not environmental or safety problems, as one may assume, but technical and economical. Long construction time, high capital cost, huge liabilities connected with the spent nuclear fuel and radioactive waste treatment, storage and final disposal are the main factors restricting the further growth of the nuclear power. Nevertheless, in the liberalized markets (U.K., Germany, Scandinavian countries) nuclear power plants are operating rather successfully. In a short run nuclear plants may become very competitive as they have very low short-run marginal costs, but in the long run they may become very in competitive. The Ignalina NPP plays the dominant ro]e in the Lithuanian electricity market, producing more than 75% of the total domestic electricity. It produces the cheapest electricity in Lithuania, mostly due to its higher availability, than the thermal power plants. The price of electricity sold by Ignalina is also lower as it does not cover all costs connected with the future decommissioning of the plant, spent fuel storage and final disposal. If at least part of this cost were included into the selling price, Ignalina might become highly competitive in a liberalised electricity market. As the Lithuanian Electricity law requires to deregulate electricity. generation prices, these prices should be set by the market. (author)

The role of price elastic demand in market power in the Nordic electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravn, H.F.

2004-01-01

The paper discusses the modelling and analysis of market power and price elastic demand in the Nordic electricity spot market, Nordpool. The modelling of market power in the electricity sector must take into account a number of features that are specific to the electricity sector. First, electricity cannot be stored, but must be produced simultaneously with consumption. This aspect is, however, modified by the possibility of using hydro reservoirs as an indirect electricity storage. Second, the electricity transmission network plays an important role by breaking the market into several geographically separate sub-markets with different prices. Moreover, the specific bottlenecks may differ from hour to hour, according to the balance between supply and demand in each sub-market. Third, the demand side is presently characterised by very limited experience with hour to-hour-changes in electricity prices and very limited experience with short time adjustments of electricity consumption in response to changes in the electricity price. In the present paper three basic models for supply side competition on the Nordpool spot market will be presented, viz., perfect competition, Cournot competition and Supply Function Equilibrium. The models represent price and quantity settlement, including determination of price areas (bottle necks), in accordance with the way the Nordpool market functions. The models will incorporate electricity demand which is responsive to the electricity price. The paper describes the role of demand response for the determination of the electricity prices in each of the three supply side competition models. (au)

Impact of electricity market deregulation on information systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pharabod, E.; Berrier, M.

2005-01-01

Electricity market deregulation is based on un-bundling of activities between generation, transmission and distribution. In a very short time, mechanisms were put in place in order to allow the new market participants to buy and sell electricity. The market operation requires to exchange information at various time horizon, from yearly to real time exchanges, between various actors geographically distributed. The recent market opening to professional customers has also increased the amount of data involved. The information system developed by RTE to manage these data is organised around referential data base, internal and external exchange tools. It must be operated respecting confidentiality of commercial data and being non discriminatory with actors. The security of this information system is now a key issue for the electricity market operation. (authors)

Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Vector Inputs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaime Buitrago

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting is crucial for the operations planning of an electrical grid. Forecasting the next 24 h of electrical load in a grid allows operators to plan and optimize their resources. The purpose of this study is to develop a more accurate short-term load forecasting method utilizing non-linear autoregressive artificial neural networks (ANN with exogenous multi-variable input (NARX. The proposed implementation of the network is new: the neural network is trained in open-loop using actual load and weather data, and then, the network is placed in closed-loop to generate a forecast using the predicted load as the feedback input. Unlike the existing short-term load forecasting methods using ANNs, the proposed method uses its own output as the input in order to improve the accuracy, thus effectively implementing a feedback loop for the load, making it less dependent on external data. Using the proposed framework, mean absolute percent errors in the forecast in the order of 1% have been achieved, which is a 30% improvement on the average error using feedforward ANNs, ARMAX and state space methods, which can result in large savings by avoiding commissioning of unnecessary power plants. The New England electrical load data are used to train and validate the forecast prediction.

Investments in electricity generation in Croatian liberalized market: energy option

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Androcec, I.; Viskovic, A.; Slipac, G.

2004-01-01

, economic, ecological, sociological and other features. It will be discussed about candidates for construction in the period of next ten years which represents investment opportunities for potential investors. But the problem is that in market conditions no one can be imposed the obligation to build new power plants. Technological and financial terms of new power plant is under influence of the law of supply and demand, so short marginal costs are in the first view (power plant life is at least 30 years) how to deal with this conditions, who will invest in long-term projects with condition of short pay-back period. This paper will try to give some directions for decision of investment in electricity generation under liberalised conditions with evaluation of possible energy options.(author)

Electricity market risk management using forward contracts with bilateral options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, T.S.; Yu, C.W.; Wong, K.P.; Zhang, S.H.

2003-01-01

Extreme short-term price volatility in competitive electricity markets creates the need for risk management arrangements. A new electricity forward contract with bilateral financial options is introduced, which allows both seller and buyer to take advantage of flexibility in generation and consumption to obtain monetary benefits while simultaneously removing the risk of market price fluctuations. The option theory is incorporated to formulate the contract price. The strike prices of options are derived from solving an equilibrium model in which both the buyer and the seller aim to maximise their own profit. Theoretical analysis shows that the proposed optional forward contract presents a more equitable and reasonable payoff structure that allows the buyer and seller to earn a larger overall expected benefit, and the contractual arrangement supports efficiency in economic dispatch of electricity production and consumption. The insights obtained from these results will be helpful to participants in the contractual decision-making process. (Author)

Generation Capacity Investments in Electricity Markets : Perfect Competition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gürkan, G.; Ozdemir, O.; Smeers, Y.

2013-01-01

Abstract: In competitive electricity markets, markets designs based on power exchanges where supply bidding (barring demand-side bidding) is at the sole short run marginal cost may not guarantee resource adequacy. As alternative ways to remedy the resource adequacy problem, we focus on three

Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-08-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The principal users of the Outlook are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1992 through the fourth quarter of 1993. Values for the second quarter of 1992, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding

Economic-efficiency considerations in restructuring electric markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hill, L.J.

1996-12-01

In response to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission`s subsequent rulemaking on transmission access, many states are exploring options to restructure their electric industries. In their deliberations on restructuring, policymakers should consider (1) the reliability of the electric system; (2) income-distribution effects on ratepayers and utilities; (3) social consequences such as effects on energy conservation, renewable energy, and the environment; and (4) economic efficiency. We address economic-efficiency considerations in this study. Economic efficiency is important because it is one of the primary reasons that policymakers should consider restructuring in the first place: improving the electric-industry`s efficiency lowers costs and, hence, electric prices. In this study, we look at the sources of (in)efficiency in existing and proposed electric markets with the objective of guiding policymakers to design efficient electric markets. The advantages of a competitive market are well known: it leads to lower costs for the utility, lower prices for consumers, more product choices, better customer service, and often the need for less regulation by federal and state agencies. In the short run, firms who cannot produce at the market-clearing price are forced to leave the industry, ensuring that customers have the lowest price possible. In the long run, competition promotes innovation and lower costs. The physical and institutional characteristics of the U.S. electric industry, however, could be impediments to attaining efficiently run, competitive markets. Because of these characteristics, there are multiple sources of efficiencies and inefficiencies in existing electric markets, and there will be multiple sources in restructured ones. The objective of policymakers should not be to trade one set of inefficiencies in existing electric markets for another set in restructured markets.

Economic-efficiency considerations in restructuring electric markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, L.J.

1996-12-01

In response to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's subsequent rulemaking on transmission access, many states are exploring options to restructure their electric industries. In their deliberations on restructuring, policymakers should consider (1) the reliability of the electric system; (2) income-distribution effects on ratepayers and utilities; (3) social consequences such as effects on energy conservation, renewable energy, and the environment; and (4) economic efficiency. We address economic-efficiency considerations in this study. Economic efficiency is important because it is one of the primary reasons that policymakers should consider restructuring in the first place: improving the electric-industry's efficiency lowers costs and, hence, electric prices. In this study, we look at the sources of (in)efficiency in existing and proposed electric markets with the objective of guiding policymakers to design efficient electric markets. The advantages of a competitive market are well known: it leads to lower costs for the utility, lower prices for consumers, more product choices, better customer service, and often the need for less regulation by federal and state agencies. In the short run, firms who cannot produce at the market-clearing price are forced to leave the industry, ensuring that customers have the lowest price possible. In the long run, competition promotes innovation and lower costs. The physical and institutional characteristics of the U.S. electric industry, however, could be impediments to attaining efficiently run, competitive markets. Because of these characteristics, there are multiple sources of efficiencies and inefficiencies in existing electric markets, and there will be multiple sources in restructured ones. The objective of policymakers should not be to trade one set of inefficiencies in existing electric markets for another set in restructured markets

Adapting electricity markets to decarbonisation and security of supply objectives: Toward a hybrid regime?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roques, Fabien; Finon, Dominique

2017-01-01

The policy objectives of decarbonisation of the electricity sector whilst maintaining security of supply have led to a new wave of market reforms in many jurisdictions which liberalised their industry. There is a wide range of models under this new hybrid regime which essentially combine the energy market with planning and long-term risk transfer arrangements. This paper takes an institutionalist approach in terms of modularity of the market design, and reviews the issues with the standard historical market model which led to the introduction of additional long term “modules”. We then study the interactions between the existing and new “modules” and identify ways in which the initial market modules can be improved to address inconsistencies with the new modules. We conclude by discussing the conditions under which the various changes in market architectures could converge toward a hybrid regime structured around a “two step competition”, with a “competition for the market” via the auctioning of long-term contracts to support investment, followed by “competition in the market” for short term system optimisation via the energy market. - Highlights: • The policy objectives of decarbonisation of the electricity sector whilst maintaining security of supply have led to a new wave of markets reforms. • Emergence of a hybrid regime combining the energy market with planning and long-term risk transfer arrangements. • Wide diversity of models in hybrid regimes, but some common fundamental features. • Replacement of the coordination function of energy prices for investment by some form of planning followed by long-term contracts. • Discussion of the conditions for possible convergence toward a “two step competition” regime.

Modelling the short term herding behaviour of stock markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shapira, Yoash; Berman, Yonatan; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

2014-01-01

Modelling the behaviour of stock markets has been of major interest in the past century. The market can be treated as a network of many investors reacting in accordance to their group behaviour, as manifested by the index and effected by the flow of external information into the system. Here we devise a model that encapsulates the behaviour of stock markets. The model consists of two terms, demonstrating quantitatively the effect of the individual tendency to follow the group and the effect of the individual reaction to the available information. Using the above factors we were able to explain several key features of the stock market: the high correlations between the individual stocks and the index; the Epps effect; the high fluctuating nature of the market, which is similar to real market behaviour. Furthermore, intricate long term phenomena are also described by this model, such as bursts of synchronized average correlation and the dominance of the index as demonstrated through partial correlation. (paper)

Time-dependent correlations in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Escarela-Perez, Rafael

2010-01-01

In the last years, many electricity markets were subjected to deregulated operation where prices are set by the action of market participants. In this form, producers and consumers rely on demand and price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate assets, negotiate bilateral contracts, hedge risks, and plan facility investments. A basic feature of efficient market hypothesis is the absence of correlations between price increments over any time scale leading to random walk-type behavior of prices, so arbitrage is not possible. However, recent studies have suggested that this is not the case and correlations are present in the behavior of diverse electricity markets. In this paper, a temporal quantification of electricity market correlations is made by means of detrended fluctuation and Allan analyses. The approach is applied to two Canadian electricity markets, Ontario and Alberta. The results show the existence of correlations in both demand and prices, exhibiting complex time-dependent behavior with lower correlations in winter while higher in summer. Relatively steady annual cycles in demand but unstable cycles in prices are detected. On the other hand, the more significant nonlinear effects (measured in terms of a multifractality index) are found for winter months, while the converse behavior is displayed during the summer period. In terms of forecasting models, our results suggest that nonlinear recursive models (e.g., feedback NNs) should be used for accurate day-ahead price estimation. In contrast, linear models can suffice for demand forecasting purposes. (author)

Pro short-term procurement - U.S. utility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, R.D.

1990-01-01

The author expresses the opinion that rather than focusing market discussions around short-term versus long-term procurement strategies, the parties need to be focusing on how long it is going to take to get to a predominantly market-based price both in uranium and enrichment. Long-term contracts are going to be around and will always be an important part of buyers' and sellers' strategies. It is evident that the annual term contract price renegotiations around the world are resulting in continually lower prices. When these price negotiations finally arrive in the range of the market price, a commodity market that resembles other energy commodity markets can be obtained

Restructuring in the Electricity Markets and Structural Transformation in Turkish Electricity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hakan ÇETİNTAŞ

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Electricity markets are changed over from monopolistic to competitive structure. In many countries liberalization process in electricity markets began after 1980. In this study models for restructuring the electricity markets are explained with the natural monopoly and its regulation which is discussed in economic theory over many years. Then structural transformation in Turkish Electricity Market is explained within the legal arrangament framework and in liberalization process of electricity markets current state of Turkey is evaluated. In Turkey, the reform process in electricity market began with the liberalization of production and ıt is contiuned to change the design of the wholesale market. There has been significant progress for energy exchange by the establishment of EPİAŞ with the Electricity Market Law Numbered 6446 in 2013.

Economic analysis of price premiums in the presence of non-convexities. Evidence from German electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paschmann, Martin

2017-11-15

Analyzing price data from sequential German electricity markets, namely the day-ahead and intraday auction, a puzzling but apparently systematic pattern of price premiums can be identified. The price premiums are highly correlated with the underlying demand profile. As there is evidence that widespread models for electricity forward premiums are not applicable to the market dynamics under analysis, a theoretical model is developed within this article which reveals that non-convexities in only a subset of sequential markets with differing product granularity may cause systematic price premiums at equilibrium. These price premiums may be bidirectional and reflect a value for additional short-term power supply system flexibility.

Economic analysis of price premiums in the presence of non-convexities. Evidence from German electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paschmann, Martin

2017-01-01

Analyzing price data from sequential German electricity markets, namely the day-ahead and intraday auction, a puzzling but apparently systematic pattern of price premiums can be identified. The price premiums are highly correlated with the underlying demand profile. As there is evidence that widespread models for electricity forward premiums are not applicable to the market dynamics under analysis, a theoretical model is developed within this article which reveals that non-convexities in only a subset of sequential markets with differing product granularity may cause systematic price premiums at equilibrium. These price premiums may be bidirectional and reflect a value for additional short-term power supply system flexibility.

Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, G.

2005-01-01

Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective...... evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results...... from both on-shore and off-shore wind forms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems....

Short-Term Price Forecasting Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks for Intraday Sessions in the Iberian Electricity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudio Monteiro

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents novel intraday session models for price forecasts (ISMPF models for hourly price forecasting in the six intraday sessions of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL and the analysis of mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs obtained with suitable combinations of their input variables in order to find the best ISMPF models. Comparisons of errors from different ISMPF models identified the most important variables for forecasting purposes. Similar analyses were applied to determine the best daily session models for price forecasts (DSMPF models for the day-ahead price forecasting in the daily session of the MIBEL, considering as input variables extensive hourly time series records of recent prices, power demands and power generations in the previous day, forecasts of demand, wind power generation and weather for the day-ahead, and chronological variables. ISMPF models include the input variables of DSMPF models as well as the daily session prices and prices of preceding intraday sessions. The best ISMPF models achieved lower MAPEs for most of the intraday sessions compared to the error of the best DSMPF model; furthermore, such DSMPF error was very close to the lowest limit error for the daily session. The best ISMPF models can be useful for MIBEL agents of the electricity intraday market and the electric energy industry.

Competition in decentralized electricity markets: Three papers on electricity auctions

Science.gov (United States)

Harbord, David William Cameron

This thesis consists of three self-contained papers on the analysis of electricity auctions written over a period of twelve years. The first paper models price competition in a decentralized wholesale market for electricity as a first-price, sealed-bid, multi-unit auction. In both the pure and mixed-strategy equilibria of the model, above marginal cost pricing and inefficient despatch of generating units occur. An alternative regulatory pricing rule is considered and it is shown that offering to supply at marginal cost can be induced as a dominant strategy for all firms. The second paper analyses strategic interaction between long-term contracts and price competition in the British electricity wholesale market, and confirms that forward contracts will tend to put downward pressure on spot market prices. A 'strategic commitment' motive for selling forward contracts is also identified: a generator may commit itself to bidding lower prices into the spot market in order to ensure that it will be despatched with its full capacity. The third paper characterizes bidding behavior and market outcomes in uniform and discriminatory electricity auctions. Uniform auctions result in higher average prices than discriminatory auctions, but the ranking in terms of productive efficiency is ambiguous. The comparative effects of other market design features, such as the number of steps in suppliers' bid functions, the duration of bids and the elasticity of demand are analyzed. The paper also clarifies some methodological issues in the analysis of electricity auctions. In particular we show that analogies with continuous share auctions are misplaced so long as firms are restricted to a finite number of bids.

Hourly price elasticity pattern of electricity demand in the German day-ahead market

OpenAIRE

Knaut, Andreas; Paulus, Simon

2016-01-01

System security in electricity markets relies crucially on the interaction between demand and supply over time. However, research on electricity markets has been mainly focusing on the supply side arguing that demand is rather inelastic. Assuming perfectly inelastic demand might lead to delusive statements regarding the price formation in electricity markets. In this article we quantify the short-run price elasticity of electricity demand in the German day-ahead market and show that demand is...

Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

Short-Term Synaptic Plasticity Regulation in Solution-Gated Indium-Gallium-Zinc-Oxide Electric-Double-Layer Transistors.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Chang Jin; Liu, Yang Hui; Zhu, Li Qiang; Feng, Ping; Shi, Yi; Wan, Qing

2016-04-20

In the biological nervous system, synaptic plasticity regulation is based on the modulation of ionic fluxes, and such regulation was regarded as the fundamental mechanism underlying memory and learning. Inspired by such biological strategies, indium-gallium-zinc-oxide (IGZO) electric-double-layer (EDL) transistors gated by aqueous solutions were proposed for synaptic behavior emulations. Short-term synaptic plasticity, such as paired-pulse facilitation, high-pass filtering, and orientation tuning, was experimentally emulated in these EDL transistors. Most importantly, we found that such short-term synaptic plasticity can be effectively regulated by alcohol (ethyl alcohol) and salt (potassium chloride) additives. Our results suggest that solution gated oxide-based EDL transistors could act as the platforms for short-term synaptic plasticity emulation.

Long-term power generation expansion planning with short-term demand response: Model, algorithms, implementation, and electricity policies

Science.gov (United States)

Lohmann, Timo

Electric sector models are powerful tools that guide policy makers and stakeholders. Long-term power generation expansion planning models are a prominent example and determine a capacity expansion for an existing power system over a long planning horizon. With the changes in the power industry away from monopolies and regulation, the focus of these models has shifted to competing electric companies maximizing their profit in a deregulated electricity market. In recent years, consumers have started to participate in demand response programs, actively influencing electricity load and price in the power system. We introduce a model that features investment and retirement decisions over a long planning horizon of more than 20 years, as well as an hourly representation of day-ahead electricity markets in which sellers of electricity face buyers. This combination makes our model both unique and challenging to solve. Decomposition algorithms, and especially Benders decomposition, can exploit the model structure. We present a novel method that can be seen as an alternative to generalized Benders decomposition and relies on dynamic linear overestimation. We prove its finite convergence and present computational results, demonstrating its superiority over traditional approaches. In certain special cases of our model, all necessary solution values in the decomposition algorithms can be directly calculated and solving mathematical programming problems becomes entirely obsolete. This leads to highly efficient algorithms that drastically outperform their programming problem-based counterparts. Furthermore, we discuss the implementation of all tailored algorithms and the challenges from a modeling software developer's standpoint, providing an insider's look into the modeling language GAMS. Finally, we apply our model to the Texas power system and design two electricity policies motivated by the U.S. Environment Protection Agency's recently proposed CO2 emissions targets for the

Pro short-term procurement - Broker/trader

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoellen, E.E.

1990-01-01

The author presents his opinion on the issue of short-term versus long-term procurement of uranium and enrichment and the impact on reliability of supply. The progression of the market has been one of increasing commoditization. Utility buyers have moved towards purchasing uranium on the spot market and linking long-term contracts to spot-market pricing. There is some logic to the argument that utilities and the industry in general would be best served by this approach. Inventories would be worked off much more quickly, and unnecessary supply would be shut off until prices recovered to profitable levels. The result would be a healthier market with no detriment to the reliability of supply

Market Potential for Non-electric Applications of Nuclear Energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konishi, T.; Kononov, S.; Kupitz, J.; McDonald, A.; Rogner, H.H.; Nisan, S.

2002-01-01

The paper presents results of a recent IAEA study to assess the market potential for non-electric applications of nuclear energy in the near (before 2020) and long term (2020-2050). The applications covered are district heating, desalination, industrial heat supply, ship propulsion, energy supply for spacecraft, and, to a lesser extent, 'innovative' applications such as hydrogen production, coal gasification, etc. While technical details are covered only briefly, emphasis is placed on economics and other factors that may promote or hinder the penetration of nuclear options in the markets for non-electric energy services. The study makes a distinction between the market size (demand for a given service) and the market potential for nuclear penetration (which may be smaller because of technical or non-technical constraints). Near-term nuclear prospects are assessed on the basis of on-going projects in the final stages of design or under construction. For the long term, use has been made of a qualitative scale ranging from 0 to 2 for five critical areas: market structure, demand pressure, technical basis, economic competitiveness, and public acceptance. The paper presents the resulting evaluation of long-term prospects for nuclear energy entering into non-electric markets. (authors)

The electricity market 2003

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. We now have a common Nordic electricity market that includes all of the Nordic countries, with the exception of Iceland. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition, to give consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and increased trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish Energy Agency is the supervisory authority specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of 'The Electricity Market 2003' publication is to meet the need for generalized and easily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic market. The publication also includes summaries of the information from recent years concerning power generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment

Managing price risk in emerging electricity markets : OTC products and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weiss, P.

1998-01-01

The evolution of power markets in the United States from traditional cost based rates to mature markets, characterized by significant specialization, high volume financial market and multiple futures/indices, is described. The meaning and characteristic features of the commodity market in electricity, OTC/futures products for the electricity markets, physical delivery vs. financial settlement, models for producer trading positions and consumer trading positions, long producer position, long spread option position, short consumer position, and long producer time spread position were explained

Optimised performance of a plug-in electric vehicle aggregator in energy and reserve markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shafie-khah, M.; Moghaddam, M.P.; Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K.; Catalão, J.P.S.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A new model is developed to optimise the performance of a PEV aggregator in the power market. • PEVs aggregator can combine the PEVs and manage the charge/discharge of their batteries. • A new approach to calculate the satisfaction/motivation of PEV owners is proposed. • Several uncertainties are taken into account using a two-stage stochastic programing approach. • The proposed model is proficient in significantly improving the short- and long-term behaviour. - Abstract: In this paper, a new model is developed to optimise the performance of a plug-in Electric Vehicle (EV) aggregator in electricity markets, considering both short- and long-term horizons. EV aggregator as a new player of the power market can aggregate the EVs and manage the charge/discharge of their batteries. The aggregator maximises the profit and optimises EV owners’ revenue by applying changes in tariffs to compete with other market players for retaining current customers and acquiring new owners. On this basis, a new approach to calculate the satisfaction/motivation of EV owners and their market participation is proposed in this paper. Moreover, the behaviour of owners to select their supplying company is considered. The aggregator optimises the self-scheduling programme and submits the best bidding/offering strategies to the day-ahead and real-time markets. To achieve this purpose, the day-ahead and real-time energy and reserve markets are modelled as oligopoly markets, in contrast with previous works that utilised perfectly competitive ones. Furthermore, several uncertainties and constraints are taken into account using a two-stage stochastic programing approach, which have not been addressed in previous works. The numerical studies show the effectiveness of the proposed model

Short-term uranium price formation: a methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsieh, L.Y.; de Graffenried, C.L.

1987-01-01

One of the major problems in analyzing the short-term uranium market is the lack of a well-defined spot market price. The two primary sources of price data covering the US uranium market are the series published by the US Dept. of Energy (DOE) and by the Nuclear Exchange Corporation (NUEXCO), a private brokerage firm. Because of the differences in both definition and coverage, these two series are not directly comparable. In this study, an econometric model was developed for analyzing the interrelationship between short-term uranium price (NUEXCO exchange value), supply, demand, and future price expectations formed by market participants. The validity of this model has been demonstrated by the fact that all simulation statistics derived are highly significant. Three forecasting scenarios were developed in this study

Comparison of two new short-term wind-power forecasting systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J. [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain); Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of La Rioja, Logrono (Spain); Monteiro, Claudio; Sousa, Joao; Bessa, Ricardo [FEUP, Fac. Engenharia Univ. Porto (Portugal)]|[INESC - Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores do Porto, Porto (Portugal)

2009-07-15

This paper presents a comparison of two new advanced statistical short-term wind-power forecasting systems developed by two independent research teams. The input variables used in both systems were the same: forecasted meteorological variable values obtained from a numerical weather prediction model; and electric power-generation registers from the SCADA system of the wind farm. Both systems are described in detail and the forecasting results compared, revealing great similarities, although the proposed structures of the two systems are different. The forecast horizon for both systems is 72 h, allowing the use of the forecasted values in electric market operations, as diary and intra-diary power generation bid offers, and in wind-farm maintenance planning. (author)

Electric system management through hydrogen production - A market driven approach in the French context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mansilla, C.; Dautremont, S.; Thais, F.; Louyrette, J.; Martin, J.; Albou, S.; Barbieri, G.; Collignon, N.; Bourasseau, C.; Salasc, B.; Valentin, S.

2012-01-01

Hydrogen is usually presented as a promising energy carrier that has a major role to play in low carbon transportation, through the use of fuel cells. However, such a development is not expected in the short term. In the meantime, hydrogen may also contribute to reduce carbon emissions in diverse sectors among which methanol production. Methanol can be produced by combining carbon dioxide and hydrogen, hence facilitating carbon dioxide emission mitigation while providing a beneficial tool to manage the electric system, if hydrogen is produced by alkaline electrolysis operated in a variable way driven by the spot and balancing electricity markets. Such a concept is promoted by the VItESSE project (Industrial and Energy value of CO 2 through Efficient use of CO 2 -free electricity - Electricity Network System Control and Electricity Storage). Through the proposed market driven approach, hydrogen production offers a possibility to help managing the electric system, together with an opportunity to reduce hydrogen production costs. (authors)

The uranium industry: long term planning for short term competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vottero, X.

2000-01-01

Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. (authors)

Information Uncertainty in Electricity Markets: Introducing Probabilistic Offers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Papakonstantinou, Athanasios; Pinson, Pierre

2016-01-01

We propose a shift from the current paradigm of electricity markets treating stochastic producers similarly to conventional ones in terms of their offers. We argue that the producers’ offers should be probabilistic to reflect the limited predictability of renewable energy generation, while we...... should design market mechanisms to accommodate such offers. We argue that the transition from deterministic offers is a natural next step in electricity markets, by analytically proving our proposal’s equivalence with a two-price conventional market....

A New Neural Network Approach to Short Term Load Forecasting of Electrical Power Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farshid Keynia

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Short-term load forecast (STLF is an important operational function in both regulated power systems and deregulated open electricity markets. However, STLF is not easy to handle due to the nonlinear and random-like behaviors of system loads, weather conditions, and social and economic environment variations. Despite the research work performed in the area, more accurate and robust STLF methods are still needed due to the importance and complexity of STLF. In this paper, a new neural network approach for STLF is proposed. The proposed neural network has a novel learning algorithm based on a new modified harmony search technique. This learning algorithm can widely search the solution space in various directions, and it can also avoid the overfitting problem, trapping in local minima and dead bands. Based on this learning algorithm, the suggested neural network can efficiently extract the input/output mapping function of the forecast process leading to high STLF accuracy. The proposed approach is tested on two practical power systems and the results obtained are compared with the results of several other recently published STLF methods. These comparisons confirm the validity of the developed approach.

Reforming British Columbia's electricity market: A way forward. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-01-01

This report begins with background on developments in electricity market structure and customer access, recent electricity market developments in British Columbia, factors driving change in that market, key elements of electricity market reform, and the work of the task force appointed to propose such reform. It then presents a consensus proposal for reform from the task force. The proposal has four major elements: Increasing customer access; transition toward a vertically de-integrated market structure; ensuring that social values associated with the existing electricity market are protected and enhanced; and environmental concerns (increasing energy efficiency and favoring the development of environmentally desirable electricity generation technologies). Finally, the proposals are evaluated against the task force terms of reference. Includes glossary

Natural gas in the Asian Pacific region: market behavior and the Japanese electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jonsson, Bo

2001-04-01

Translog model that assumes cost minimization according to shadow prices, instead of actual market prices. Given this assumption, relative price efficiency with respect to the fossil-fuel mix is tested. The results from the model indicate that the null hypothesis of relative price efficiency in the fossil-fuel mix cannot be rejected. Hence, if the Japanese LNG buyers exercise some market power in the LNG market the model provides no evidence for the notion that they use natural gas efficiently, relative other fossil fuel, in electricity generation. The third chapter analyzes the impact that Japanese energy policy has had on the fossil-fuel choice in the power industry in Japan. Due to energy security and environmental concerns, the energy policy in Japan has been favoring natural gas as fuel in fossil-fueled electricity production. The study uses a restricted flexible cost function approach to analyze the impact on fuel costs when the volume of natural gas is exogenous - due to the energy policy - to the electricity producer's choice of fossil-fuel mix. By deriving the shadow price of natural gas, the optimal (cost minimizing) consumption of natural gas is estimated. The results indicate that too much gas is used. Hence, the fossil-fuel mix is inefficient from a pure cost perspective. The results also shows that short-term substitution between the unrestricted fossil-fuels - coal, crude oil, and fuel oil - have occurred, illustrated by negative own-price, and positive cross-price elasticities of reasonable magnitude. The study also shows that the combination of technological change and energy policy has been fuel-saving with respect to crude oil, and fuel-using for coal and fuel oil in fossil-fueled electricity production. The fourth chapter uses an error-correction model to estimate long- and short-run electricity demand elasticities in the residential sector in Japan. The results show low long-run price elasticities, indicating that the proposed deregulation of the

The opening up to competition of European electricity markets: genesis and perspectives of an ambitious project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pellion, Antoine

2007-01-01

This article first describes the European dynamic of the construction of electricity markets. It outlines the economic and competitive logics which are the base of the liberalisation of electricity markets, and do not aim at suppressing a public service. This encompasses the search for an optimal market as economic aim, and an incentive to the opening by community law. It describes the implementation of the liberalisation process with a harmonisation at the European scale, and still different and partitioned markets. It outlines that the expected price decrease did not occur. The electricity pricing is presented as a complex process, and the sustained increase of production costs is outlined. It also outlined that this market has strengthened structural imperfections: a scarcity rent largely accessible to market powers, a strong trend to short term investment behaviour. On the other hand, environmental efficiency has a positive assessment. The next part proposes an overview of possible actions for the development and regulation of European markets: a network to be expanded and densified with better performance and a more competitive market for the benefit of the consumer, a scarcity rent which requires a market framing, a new orientation for the use of this rent. The coordination of electricity production is outlined as a necessary element for a European energy policy

Electricity marketing and retailing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandre, L.

2001-01-01

PremStar Metering Inc. is a division of PremStar Energy Canada. In addition to providing full-service meter and data services PremStar Metering provides collection, validation, analysis and billing services, working closely with the Ontario Energy Board, independent market operator (IMO) and Measurements Canada. This presentation addressed the market power mitigation agreement (MPMA) as well as issues dealing with wholesale competition seen mostly in the power generation sector. It was noted that the goal of the MPMA is to promote competition in the marketplace. Issues regarding the short term revenue limitation and the long term generation limitation of the MPMA were also discussed. figs

Market Survey Turkey. Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-12-01

The present market survey presents the Turkish power market and derives business opportunities and prospects for Dutch trade and industry. This market survey has been carried out for the following four, from time to time overlapping, sectors that have been identified by EVD as potential opportunities for Dutch small and medium-sized enterprises (SME): renewable energy, energy efficiency, electricity generation, electricity distribution

Optimal DG placement in deregulated electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gautam, Durga; Mithulananthan, Nadarajah

2007-01-01

This paper presents two new methodologies for optimal placement of distributed generation (DG) in an optimal power flow (OPF) based wholesale electricity market. DG is assumed to participate in real time wholesale electricity market. The problem of optimal placement, including size, is formulated for two different objectives, namely, social welfare maximization and profit maximization. The candidate locations for DG placement are identified on the basis of locational marginal price (LMP). Obtained as lagrangian multiplier associated with active power flow equation for each node, LMP gives the short run marginal cost (SRMC) of electricity. Consumer payment, evaluated as a product of LMP and load at each load bus, is proposed as another ranking to identify candidate nodes for DG placement. The proposed rankings bridges engineering aspects of system operation and economic aspects of market operation and act as good indicators for the placement of DG, especially in a market environment. In order to provide a scenario of variety of DGs available in the market, several cost characteristics are assumed. For each DG cost characteristic, an optimal placement and size is identified for each of the objectives. The proposed methodology is tested in a modified IEEE 14 bus test system. (author)

Medium-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Extremely Low Prices in Electricity Markets: Application to the Spanish Case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Bello

2016-03-01

Full Text Available One of the most relevant challenges that have arisen in electricity markets during the last few years is the emergence of extremely low prices. Trying to predict these events is crucial for market agents in a competitive environment. This paper proposes a novel methodology to simultaneously accomplish punctual and probabilistic hourly predictions about the appearance of extremely low electricity prices in a medium-term scope. The proposed approach for making real ex ante forecasts consists of a nested compounding of different forecasting techniques, which incorporate Monte Carlo simulation, combined with spatial interpolation techniques. The procedure is based on the statistical identification of the process key drivers. Logistic regression for rare events, decision trees, multilayer perceptrons and a hybrid approach, which combines a market equilibrium model with logistic regression, are used. Moreover, this paper assesses whether periodic models in which parameters switch according to the day of the week can be even more accurate. The proposed techniques are compared to a Markov regime switching model and several naive methods. The proposed methodology empirically demonstrates its effectiveness by achieving promising results on a real case study based on the Spanish electricity market. This approach can provide valuable information for market agents when they face decision making and risk-management processes. Our findings support the additional benefit of using a hybrid approach for deriving more accurate predictions.

Unified electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2011-01-01

A unified European electricity market means a unification and harmonisation of functioning of the national electricity market into one European Market or into one entity. It gives an opportunity to Slovenske elektrarne to open room for their wider activity within Europe where common rules for cross-boarder trade and markets functioning will apply. (author)

The electricity market 2002

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-10-01

The purpose of the 'Electricity market 2002' publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic market. Iceland is not included in the description. The publication also includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment. The publication contains data on electricity generation and use during the past years, structure of the electricity market, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic countries and other countries as well as impact of electricity generation system on the environment. The market price of electricity is affected by a number of factors, including fuel prices, availability of water, and the power and energy balances of the various countries. The availability of water in Norway and Sweden has been very good in recent years, which has had a major influence on the price. 1996 was a dry year, which led to a high system price on Nord Pool. The price of electricity then dropped and has remained at a relatively low level up to the year 2001. The price of electricity rose during the spring of 2001 and remained at a higher level also during the summer months. The main reason was that the availability of water was lower than normal in Norway during the early part of the year. This created a higher demand for imported electricity in Norway and caused some apprehension that the year would be dry. The total price of electricity to the end users has not followed the system price development. The total cost of electricity to the end consumers consists of three items, i.e. the price of electricity, the network

Energy subsidies in California's electricity market deregulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ritschel, Alexander; Smestad, G.P.

2003-01-01

Deregulation and re-regulation of California's electricity market not only failed in terms of anticipated cost reductions, improved customer service and higher competition, it also led to the introduction of various additional energy subsidies. This paper analyzes California's electricity market deregulation process from a subsidy viewpoint. Under deregulation in California, investor-owned utilities were not allowed to pass their energy procurement costs fully on to their customers, and therefore subsequently, and inevitably, ran into severe financial problems. Such retail price regulation is an energy subsidy that is both economically and environmentally unfavorable, because it veils true price signals to electricity consumers and, in this way, discourages energy conservation. Other policies implemented in California that represent perverse energy subsidies are the purchase of power by the state of California, the suspension of retail competition, and the potential misuse of money from the recovery of stranded costs. Many interventions implemented by the state to smooth out the impacts of the energy crisis insulated electricity consumers from market realities, supported the existing structure of California's electricity market, which is predominantly based on fossil fuels, and suppressed market incentives to improve energy conservation

Estimating the market premium in short term interest rates

OpenAIRE

Hansen, Hans Fredrik

2006-01-01

Looking at the term structure in the interest rate market one can’t help notice the evident market premium above the central banks target rate. What factors might decide this premium? By using different variations of simple regression models we see that the model is constantly lagging the real time series. Acknowledging the fact that market clearings often are subject to several equations; we’re better able to develop a sensible model using a simultaneous equilibrium model. The multiple equat...

Short-term electricity price forecast based on the improved hybrid model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong Yao; Wang Jianzhou; Jiang He; Wu Jie

2011-01-01

Highlights: → The proposed models can detach high volatility and daily seasonality of electricity price. → The improved hybrid forecast models can make full use of the advantages of individual models. → The proposed models create commendable improvements that are relatively satisfactorily for current research. → The proposed models do not require making complicated decisions about the explicit form. - Abstract: Half-hourly electricity price in power system are volatile, electricity price forecast is significant information which can help market managers and participants involved in electricity market to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their benefits and utilities. However, the fluctuation of electricity price depends on the common effect of many factors and there is a very complicated random in its evolution process. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast half-hourly prices with traditional only one model for different behaviors of half-hourly prices. This paper proposes the improved forecasting model that detaches high volatility and daily seasonality for electricity price of New South Wales in Australia based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Seasonal Adjustment and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. The prediction errors are analyzed and compared with the ones obtained from the traditional Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The comparisons demonstrate that the proposed model can improve the prediction accuracy noticeably.

Short-term electricity price forecast based on the improved hybrid model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dong Yao, E-mail: dongyao20051987@yahoo.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Wang Jianzhou, E-mail: wjz@lzu.edu.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Jiang He; Wu Jie [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

2011-08-15

Highlights: {yields} The proposed models can detach high volatility and daily seasonality of electricity price. {yields} The improved hybrid forecast models can make full use of the advantages of individual models. {yields} The proposed models create commendable improvements that are relatively satisfactorily for current research. {yields} The proposed models do not require making complicated decisions about the explicit form. - Abstract: Half-hourly electricity price in power system are volatile, electricity price forecast is significant information which can help market managers and participants involved in electricity market to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their benefits and utilities. However, the fluctuation of electricity price depends on the common effect of many factors and there is a very complicated random in its evolution process. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast half-hourly prices with traditional only one model for different behaviors of half-hourly prices. This paper proposes the improved forecasting model that detaches high volatility and daily seasonality for electricity price of New South Wales in Australia based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Seasonal Adjustment and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. The prediction errors are analyzed and compared with the ones obtained from the traditional Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The comparisons demonstrate that the proposed model can improve the prediction accuracy noticeably.

Market readiness report : status of preparation for Ontario's competitive retail electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

The Ontario Energy Board (OEB) assumes a leadership role in the electricity sector to ensure the readiness of retail participants in Ontario's competitive electricity market. The Market Readiness Project Team is instrumental in this activity. The team, led by the Independent Electricity Market Operator, provides information and advice regarding the technical readiness of the retail industry, with particular focus on the readiness of distributors to carry out their important functions in a competitive market. This report provides an assessment of the team regarding the industry's technical readiness based on information as of December 14, 2001. The status of retail market readiness was reviewed in terms of the viability of the design of the new competitive market and on the status of Ontario distributors in enabling a competitive market. The workplan for the remaining industry activities needed to achieve market opening were then summarized along with the contingency arrangements for any distributors that are not ready for market opening. Based on several projections, an estimated 88 per cent of Ontario contracts will be served by a distributor starting on a May 1, 2002 market opening. tabs., figs., appendices

Essays on electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rud, Linda

2009-07-01

The report covers several topics of electricity markets: The first essay, 'Selected Topics on Early Electricity Market Design in Norway' studies market design issues in establishing the market-based Norwegian electricity market. Essays 2-4 focus on issues of network congestion: 'Capacity Charges: A Price Adjustment Process for Managing Congestion in Electricity Transmission Networks' presents the capacity charge approach for managing transmission constraints in electricity networks. 'Understanding the Stochastics of Nodal Prices: Price Processes in a Constrained Network' seeks a further understanding of stochastic nodal prices processes. 'Investment Evaluation in a Constrained Electricity Network with Stochastic Nodal Price Processes' studies how the interaction of the competitive market and the capacitated network affects the evaluation of investments under uncertainty, and points out potential pitfalls of evaluation. In the last essay, 'A Newsboy Model Perspective on the Power Market: The Case of a Wind Power Producer' we discuss aspects of optimal bidding for a wind power producer. (Author)

Essays on electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rud, Linda

2009-07-01

The report covers several topics of electricity markets: The first essay, 'Selected Topics on Early Electricity Market Design in Norway' studies market design issues in establishing the market-based Norwegian electricity market. Essays 2-4 focus on issues of network congestion: 'Capacity Charges: A Price Adjustment Process for Managing Congestion in Electricity Transmission Networks' presents the capacity charge approach for managing transmission constraints in electricity networks. 'Understanding the Stochastics of Nodal Prices: Price Processes in a Constrained Network' seeks a further understanding of stochastic nodal prices processes. 'Investment Evaluation in a Constrained Electricity Network with Stochastic Nodal Price Processes' studies how the interaction of the competitive market and the capacitated network affects the evaluation of investments under uncertainty, and points out potential pitfalls of evaluation. In the last essay, 'A Newsboy Model Perspective on the Power Market: The Case of a Wind Power Producer' we discuss aspects of optimal bidding for a wind power producer. (Author)

Future Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre

2015-01-01

The changing face of energy production in Europe necessitates a rethink in the way that electricity markets are structured. The ‘5s’ (Future Electricity Markets) project is a multi-disciplinary project that is looking to challenge the current approach to the design and operation of electricity...

Electricity markets theories and applications

CERN Document Server

Lin, Jeremy

2017-01-01

Electricity Markets: Theories and Applications offers students and practitioners a clear understanding of the fundamental concepts of the economic theories, particularly microeconomic theories, as well as information on some advanced optimization methods of electricity markets. The authors--noted experts in the field--cover the basic drivers for the transformation of the electricity industry in both the United States and around the world and discuss the fundamentals of power system operation, electricity market design and structures, and electricity market operations. The text also explores advanced topics of power system operations and electricity market design and structure including zonal versus nodal pricing, market performance and market power issues, transmission pricing, and the emerging problems electricity markets face in smart grid and micro-grid environments. The authors also examine system planning under the context of electricity market regime. They explain the new ways to solve problems with t...

Capacity Market Design: Motivation and Challenges in Alberta’s Electricity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Brown

2018-03-01

parameters that are essential to the functioning of the market. An essential, but often controversial component is the formulation of the capacity demand curve. A capacity demand curve for Alberta has to be carefully designed to deal with uncertainties in demand growth, given that Alberta’s electricity demand is closely interconnected with the ups and downs of global crude oil prices.Consideration must be given to the perspective of outside investors who – as in any area of economic interest – are wary about uncertainty. Political and regulatory uncertainty can undermine the success of a capacity market. This potential for investor hesitancy could result in incumbent firms, familiar with investing in Alberta, seizing a larger share of the market in an already historically concentrated environment. It is critical that policymakers establish a clear and well-defined trajectory for the future of Alberta’s electricity market design as a whole, not just its capacity market. The capacity market is not a panacea for the potential downfalls of an energy-only market. There are trade-offs associated with both energy-only and capacity market designs. Energy-only markets are arguably more economically efficient with cleaner price signals. However, with political constraints on electricity price-spikes and the expansion of renewables, there is more uncertainty in an energy-only market’s ability to promote investment. A capacity market provides more certainty in terms of generation resource adequacy, but at a potentially higher cost. Despite these tradeoffs, capacity markets are unambiguously more complex. This places a heavy burden on regulators to carefully and correctly set critical capacity market parameters that can have substantive impacts on prices and the associated economic signals.

Essays on environmental regulations in electricity markets

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yanming

Reducing the Greenhouse Gas pollution and promoting energy efficiency among consumers' energy use have been major public policy issues recently. Currently, both the United States and the European Union have set up explicit percentage requirements that require energy generators or consumers to undertake a certain percentage of their energy production or consumption from renewable sources. To achieve their renewable targets, the Tradable Green Certificates (TGC) system has been introduced in their electricity markets. Moreover, in order to promote energy conservation and achieve energy efficiency targets, price policies and price changes derived from environmental regulations have played a more important role in reducing electricity consumption. My research studies problems associated with these policy implementations. In Chapter 1, I analyze a competitive electricity market with two countries operated under a common TGC system. By using geometric illustrations, I compare the two countries' welfare when the renewable quota is chosen optimally under the common certificate market with three different situations. The policy recommendation is that when the value of damage parameter is sufficiently small, full integration with a TGC market is welfare superior to full integration of an all fossil-fuel based market with an optimal emissions standard. In Chapter 2, by analyzing a stylized theoretical model and numerical examples, I investigate the performance of the optimal renewables policy under full separation and full integration scenarios for two countries' electricity markets operated under TGC systems. In my third chapter, I look at residential electricity consumption responsiveness to increases of electricity price in the U.S. and the different effect of a price increase on electricity use for states of different income levels. My analysis reveals that raising the energy price in the short run will not give consumers much incentive to adjust their appliances and make

Tender frequency and market concentration in balancing power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knaut, Andreas; Obermueller, Frank; Weiser, Florian

2017-01-01

Balancing power markets ensure the short-term balance of supply and demand in electricity markets and their importance may increase with a higher share of fluctuating renewable electricity production. While it is clear that shorter tender frequencies, e.g. daily or hourly, are able to increase the efficiency compared to a weekly procurement, it remains unclear in which respect market concentration will be affected. Against this background, we develop a numerical electricity market model to quantify the possible effects of shorter tender frequencies on costs and market concentration. We find that shorter time spans of procurement are able to lower the costs by up to 15%. While market concentration decreases in many markets, we - surprisingly - identify cases in which shorter time spans lead to higher concentration.

Tender frequency and market concentration in balancing power markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Knaut, Andreas; Obermueller, Frank; Weiser, Florian

2017-01-15

Balancing power markets ensure the short-term balance of supply and demand in electricity markets and their importance may increase with a higher share of fluctuating renewable electricity production. While it is clear that shorter tender frequencies, e.g. daily or hourly, are able to increase the efficiency compared to a weekly procurement, it remains unclear in which respect market concentration will be affected. Against this background, we develop a numerical electricity market model to quantify the possible effects of shorter tender frequencies on costs and market concentration. We find that shorter time spans of procurement are able to lower the costs by up to 15%. While market concentration decreases in many markets, we - surprisingly - identify cases in which shorter time spans lead to higher concentration.

Electricity market integration: Redistribution effect versus resource reallocation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, Dominique; Romano, Elliot

2009-01-01

Summary: In countries with a significant amount of low variable cost generation capacity, the integration of electricity markets poses a real problem with respect to consumers' interests. In such cases, consumers face a significant price rise compared with consumers in countries where low-cost capacities are lacking. This paper analyses this problem both in the short and long term, focusing on a market dominated by nuclear and hydro production. When there are too many restrictions on new capacity developments in low-cost technologies, market integration will lead to surplus redistribution without any production reallocation. This really makes it legitimate to contemplate redistributive compensations towards local consumers in countries which benefited from low variable cost generators at the moment of liberalisation. This paper examines two alternative ways of rent reallocation, one by income with a windfall tax on nuclear producers and the allocation of this revenue to energy efficiency policy funds, and another by price by giving drawing rights on the existing nuclear generators' production to small commercial and domestic consumers, at a level equivalent to the one necessary to maintain regulated prices.

The electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

After a first part proposing predictions for electricity production and consumption for 2016, for the turnovers of electricity suppliers and producers, an indication of important recent important events regarding enterprises belonging to the sector, and a dashboard of the sector activity, an annual report proposes a detailed overview of trends and of the competition context for the electricity market. It identifies the main market opportunities for electricity suppliers, identifies eight determining factors for the sector activity, gives an overview of the sector context evolution between 2004 and 2014 (temperatures, rainfalls, manufacturing industry production, housing and office building stock, projected housing and office building). It analyses the evolution of the sector activity by presenting and commenting various activity indicators and financial performance of electricity producers. It analyses the sector economic structure: evolution of the economic fabric, presentation of various structural characteristics (cross-border exchanges, production capacities per energy source, nuclear plant fleet, thermal plant fleet, location, electricity supply market). It proposes a presentation of the various actors and of their respective market shares, and presentations of groups, electricity suppliers, and electricity producers. It indicates highlights and presents various rankings of the main enterprises in 2014

A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suseelatha Annamareddi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks.

Slovenian and Spanish electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bregar, Z.

2004-01-01

Spanish electricity market has served as a basic model in the construction of the electricity market in Slovenia. However, in the final phase of its development additional solutions were adopted from other European and worldwide electricity markets. The electricity market thus obtained is in some aspects more complex and in others simpler with regard to the original model. This article describes two of the new solutions on the Slovenian electricity market: the introduction of numerous standardized electric energy products (Band, Peak, Off-peak, Hourly power etc.) to be traded on completely separate markets, and the introduction of continuous, real-time type trading on all of them but the hourly market.(author)

Forecasting short-term power prices in the Ontario Electricity Market (OEM) with a fuzzy logic based inference system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arciniegas, Alvaro I.; Arciniegas Rueda, Ismael E.

2008-01-01

The Ontario Electricity Market (OEM), which opened in May 2002, is relatively new and is still under change. In addition, the bidding strategies of the participants are such that the relationships between price and fundamentals are non-linear and dynamic. The lack of market maturity and high complexity hinders the use of traditional statistical methodologies (e.g., regression analysis) for price forecasting. Therefore, a flexible model is needed to achieve good forecasting in OEM. This paper uses a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy inference system in forecasting the one-day-ahead real-time peak price of the OEM. The forecasting results of TSK are compared with those obtained by traditional statistical and neural network based forecasting. The comparison suggests that TSK has considerable value in forecasting one-day-ahead peak price in OEM. (author)

Short-term versus long-term contracting for uranium enrichment services

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rudy, G.P.

1990-01-01

The US Department of Energy (US DOE) is the world's largest and most experienced supplier of uranium enrichment services. Through the late 1970s and early 1980s, emerging market forces transformed what was once a monopoly into a highly competitive industry. In the early 1980's the DOE lost market share. But as we enter the 1990s, new market forces have emerged. The US DOE believes a responsible balance between long-term and short-term contracting will be the key to success and the key to assuring the long-term health and reliability of the nuclear fuel industry. The US DOE intends to be in this nuclear business for a long time and will continue to offer reliable and responsive services second to none

Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Herui Cui

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Short-term electric load is significantly affected by weather, especially the temperature effects in summer. External factors can result in mutation structures in load data. Under the influence of the external temperature factors, city electric load cannot be easily forecasted as usual. This research analyzes the relationship between electricity load and daily temperature in city. An improved ARIMAX model is proposed in this paper to deal with the mutation data structures. It is found that information amount of the improved ARIMAX model is smaller than that of the classic method and its relative error is less than AR, ARMA and Sigmoid-Function ANN models. The forecasting results are more accurately fitted. This improved model is highly valuable when dealing with mutation data structure in the field of load forecasting. And it is also an effective technique in forecasting electric load with temperature effects.

Solar PV electricity and market characteristics: two Canadian case-studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowlands, I.H.

2005-01-01

To determine whether solar electricity (that is, electricity generated by photovoltaics) is, on an average, more valuable - in market terms - than the electricity generated in power systems as a whole, this article investigates the extent to which solar resource availability in two Canadian locations is associated with peak electricity market demand and peak electricity market price. More specifically, solar radiation and electricity market data for the period 1 May 2002 to 30 April 2004 are examined for Calgary, Alta. and Guelph, Ont. A variety of visual and statistical investigations reveal that solar radiation values coincide closely with peak electricity market demand and, though to a somewhat lesser extent, peak electricity market prices during the summertime in each location. While more detailed investigation is needed in order to determine the specific impact of different levels of PV penetration upon provincial electricity markets, the article provides ample encouragement for further research. The article also shows how different techniques can be used-in any location-to investigate the relationship among solar electricity potential, system-wide demand and market prices. With electricity industries being restructured around the world, it continues to be important for solar energy proponents to participate in discussions regarding economic costs and benefits. Techniques used in this article can help them advance the solar electricity case more effectively and thus catalyse the deployment of photovoltaics in markets around the world. (author)

How the physical electricity markets will work in Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, P.

1998-01-01

The issue of how the physical electricity markets in Ontario will operate was the focus of this presentation. Principal topics addressed included a definition of the physical market, (a mechanism through which the terms and conditions, including price, for the physical exchange of a commodity are established, and delivery is realized); a discussion on the role of the Independent Market Operator; wholesale and retail electricity markets; retail market proposals; the staging of congestion pricing; and the life cycle of physical transactions and payments. Market price components were summarized, and a typical transaction from bids and offers to billing and fund transfer was illustrated

The relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botterud, Audun; Kristiansen, Tarjei; Ilic, Marija D.

2010-01-01

We analyze 11 years of historical spot- and futures prices from the hydro-dominated Nord Pool electricity market. We find that futures prices tend to be higher than spot prices. The average convenience yield is therefore negative, but varies by season and depends on the storage levels in hydro reservoirs. The average realized return on holding a long position in the futures market is also negative. The negative convenience yield and risk premium contrast empirical findings in most other commodity markets. We argue that differences between the supply and demand sides in terms of risk preferences and the ability to take advantage of short-term price variations can contribute to explain the observed relationship between spot- and futures prices. In addition, our analysis shows that the relationship between spot and futures prices is clearly linked to the physical state of the system, such as hydro inflow, reservoir levels, and demand. (author)

Electricity market models and RES integration: The Greek case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simoglou, Christos K.; Biskas, Pandelis N.; Vagropoulos, Stylianos I.; Bakirtzis, Anastasios G.

2014-01-01

This paper presents an extensive analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on an hour-by-hour simulation considering five different RES technologies, namely wind, PV, small hydro, biomass and CHP with emphasis on PV integration. The impact of RES penetration on the electricity market operation is evaluated under two different models regarding the organization of the Greek wholesale day-ahead electricity market: a mandatory power pool for year 2014 (current market design) and a power exchange for the period 2015–2020 (Target Model). An integrated software tool is used for the simulation of the current and the future day-ahead market clearing algorithm of the Greek wholesale electricity market. Simulation results indicate the impact of the anticipated large-scale RES integration, in conjunction with each market model, on specific indicators of the Greek electricity market in the long-term. - Highlights: • Analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on hour-by-hour simulation. • Five different RES technologies are considered with emphasis on PV integration. • A power pool (for 2014) and a power exchange (for 2015–2020) are considered. • Various market indicators are used for the analysis of the impact of the RES integration on the Greek electricity market. • Two alternative tariff schemes for the compensation of the new ground-mounted PV units from 2015 onwards are investigated

Germany's nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.

2015-01-01

This paper examines the potential implications of national policies that lead to a sudden increase of wind power in the electricity mix for interconnected European electricity markets. More specifically, it examines market integration before and after the closures of eight nuclear power plants that occurred within a period of a few months in Germany during 2011. The short- and- long run interrelationships of daily electricity spot prices, from November 2009 to October 2012, in: APX-ENDEX, BELPEX, EPEX-DE, EPEX-FR, NORDPOOL, OMEL and SWISSIX; and wind power in the German system are analysed. Two MGARCH (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models with dynamic correlations are used to assess spot market behaviour in the short run, and a fractional cointegration analysis is conducted to investigate changes in the long-run behaviour of electricity spot prices. Results show: positive time-varying correlations between spot prices in markets with substantial shared interconnector capacity; a negative association between wind power penetration in Germany and electricity spot prices in the German and neighbouring markets; and, for most markets, a decreasing speed in mean reversion. -- Highlights: •Associations between spot prices and wind power are time-varying. •Greater spot price and volatility associations across markets are observed. •In the long run, the German market is less integrated with neighbouring markets. •Policies on a local electricity mix can affect spot prices in connected markets

Short-Term Multiple Forecasting of Electric Energy Loads for Sustainable Demand Planning in Smart Grids for Smart Homes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adeshina Y. Alani

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Energy consumption in the form of fuel or electricity is ubiquitous globally. Among energy types, electricity is crucial to human life in terms of cooking, warming and cooling of shelters, powering of electronic devices as well as commercial and industrial operations. Users of electronic devices sometimes consume fluctuating amounts of electricity generated from smart-grid infrastructure owned by the government or private investors. However, frequent imbalance is noticed between the demand and supply of electricity, hence effective planning is required to facilitate its distribution among consumers. Such effective planning is stimulated by the need to predict future consumption within a short period. Although several interesting classical techniques have been used for such predictions, they still require improvement for the purpose of reducing significant predictive errors when used for short-term load forecasting. This research develops a near-zero cooperative probabilistic scenario analysis and decision tree (PSA-DT model to address the lacuna of enormous predictive error faced by the state-of-the-art models. The PSA-DT is based on a probabilistic technique in view of the uncertain nature of electricity consumption, complemented by a DT to reinforce the collaboration of the two techniques. Based on detailed experimental analytics on residential, commercial and industrial data loads, the PSA-DT model outperforms the state-of-the-art models in terms of accuracy to a near-zero error rate. This implies that its deployment for electricity demand planning will be of great benefit to various smart-grid operators and homes.

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

How much oil will the world consume in 2012? What role will OPEC play in global oil production? Will biofuels become an important part of the oil market? How will the refinery sector cope? The International Energy Agency (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report tackles these questions, adopting a perspective that goes beyond the traditional short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. Drawing on current futures curves and the investment threshold for upstream projects, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report analyses how global demand and supply balances may develop. By assessing all firmly planned upstream and downstream projects worldwide, this report forecasts supply and demand potential for crude and petroleum products over the next five years. The results provide an invaluable insight into vital issues such as surplus production capacity and product supply. An essential report for all policymakers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

Renewable energy and energy efficiency in liberalized European electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wohlgemuth, Norbert

2000-01-01

Given the projected growth in global energy demand, renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) play a crucial role in the attainment of the environmental dimension of sustainable development. Policy mechanisms to promote RE and EE have been justified on the rationale of market failure, which prevents price signals alone from being sufficient to induce consumers to implement the socially optimal level. The paper shows driving forces for increasing competition in the electricity supply industry and discusses the implication of electricity industry liberalisation on RE/EE activities. Policies of the European Commission to promote RE/EE are presented, including a more detailed description of the experience made in the United Kingdom. Conclusions are that the new market structure may be too short sighted to stimulate RE and EE activities and that the design of policies should be compatible with the new market-orientated structure of the electricity industry. If implemented properly, and compatible with the competitive market organisation, electricity supply liberalisation could pave the way for 'sustainable electricity' in the European Union. (Author)

What went wrong in California's electricity market?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chikeung Woo

2001-01-01

The California electricity market reform promised to deliver reliable service at low and stable prices. Frequent capacity shortages and the ensuing rolling black-outs, price spikes, and large price volatility since Summer 2000 raise a simple but substantive question: what went wrong? The answer to this question will help countries contemplating electricity market reform not to commit similar mistakes. We find the answer by identifying the major factors that have turned the California dream into a nightmare. Such factors include poor market design, market power, sustained demand growth not matched by new capacity, rising marginal cost, and financial insolvency. Proposed remedies include an alternative market settlement process, long-term contract, fast licensing and siting process for new generation and transmission, conservation and energy-efficiency, distributed resources, rate options, and debt restructuring. The California experience suggests that a reversible regulatory reform is a safe alternative to an irreversible market reform. (Author)

Need and design of short-term auctions in the EU gas markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vazquez, Miguel; Hallack, Michelle

2013-01-01

In the EU, gas markets are based on socializing network flexibility services. However, shippers have different preferences on network flexibility, which are not reflected in current allocation models. We propose the introduction of auction mechanisms to allocate network services in the short run. The auction aims to represent simultaneously the diversity of players′ preferences and the trade-offs implied by network constraints. Two sealed-bid auctions are proposed: (a) an auction based on bids for gas, which allocates network services through the minimization of gas price differences; (b) an auction with explicit bids for line-pack, which allows shippers′ valuation of line-pack storage. - Highlights: • EU gas regulation faces serious difficulties in network resource allocation. • We propose two short-term auctions with implicit network allocation. • The difference between the two is the implicit or explicit allocation of line-pack. • The first auction considers line-pack as an instrument to arbitrage gas prices. • The second auction design considers line-pack as a tool to hedge volatility

Consumption, price asymmetries, transmission congestion and market power in the Norwegian electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mirza, Faisal Mehmood

2011-07-01

The results from this dissertation add to the ongoing debate in Norway if NordPool spot should shift from zonal price scheme to the nodal price scheme. Academically, the individual papers provide a number of theoretical frameworks that are helpful in analyzing electricity markets around the world. The PhD dissertation investigates price determination process in the Norwegian electricity market and evaluates if the market works at perfectly competitive level or producers exercise market power to drive prices away from their marginal cost of production. Using aggregate hourly electricity supply and demand data, the empirical analysis carried out in this dissertation leads to the following conclusions. 1. Market power at the generation level is not a major problem for the Norwegian electricity market. On average, when we consider the events of binding transmission capacity as exogenous, the average markup in economic terms is small and has not exceeded one percent. 2. Producers can use the information on available transmission capacity between different price areas in Norway and restrict their output to induce transmission congestion in their price area to exercise market power. Average markup during such instances has remained high at 20 percent. 3. Transmission capacity in Norway is not being optimally utilized as import capacity remains at its lowest level during the hours when southern Norway is generally a net importer of electricity, when compared to the rest of the hours of the day. 4. A segment of electricity retailers in the Norwegian electricity market exercises its market power by controlling the pass-through of price changes in the wholesale market to the retail market for variable price contract consumers. The pass-through is asymmetric, whereby cost increase is transmitted completely and quickly when compared to the case of cost decrease. 5.The Daylight saving time (Summer time) policy is helpful in ensuring energy efficiency. It results in electricity

The Future of Centrally-Organized Wholesale Electricity Markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glazer, Craig [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Morrison, Jay [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Breakman, Paul [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Clements, Allison [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schwartz, Lisa [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2017-06-21

The electricity grid in the United States is organized around a network of large, centralized power plants and high voltage transmission lines that transport electricity, sometimes over large distances, before it is delivered to the customer through a local distribution grid. This network of centralized generation and high voltage transmission lines is called the “bulk power system.” Costs relating to bulk power generation typically account for more than half of a customer’s electric bill.1 For this reason, the structure and functioning of wholesale electricity markets have major impacts on costs and economic value for consumers, as well as energy security and national security. Diverse arrangements for bulk power wholesale markets have evolved over the last several decades. The Southeast and Western United States outside of California have a “bilateral-based” bulk power system where market participants enter into long-term bilateral agreements — using competitive procurements through power marketers, direct arrangements among utilities or with other generation owners, and auctions and exchanges.

Supply adequacy in electricity markets based on hydro systems-the Brazilian case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luiz da Silva, Edson

2006-01-01

This article examines the practical perspective for introducing the deregulation model in systems with a strong predominance of hydroelectric generation, such as the Brazilian electricity system. In order to do this, the article describes the process of establishing short-term prices in systems with such characteristics, concluding that this economic signal is inefficient for stimulating a sustained generation expansion. As a result of this analysis, the article proposes, as a regulatory policy, a competitive process of energy contracting that favors the making of decisions with long-term horizons, ensuring the adequacy of supply, and, additionally, permitting a satisfactory management of market risk by generation and distribution companies. (author)

Capacity choices in liberalised electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castro-Rodriguez, Fidel; Marin, Pedro L.; Siotis, Georges

2009-01-01

This paper addresses the issue of investment in electricity generation in the context of a liberalised market. We use the main results derived from a theoretical model where firms invest strategically to simulate the Spanish electricity system with real-world data. Our results indicate that, under reasonable parameter constellations regarding the number of agents, the level of capacity resulting from private decisions falls well short of the social optimum. Last, we show that two regulatory mechanisms that have been used to generate additional incentives for private agents to install capacity (capacity payment and price-adder) are ineffective and/or prohibitively costly.

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

How much oil will the world consume in 2011? What role will OPEC play in global oil production? Will biofuels become an important part of the oil market? The International Energy Agencys (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report tackles these questions, adopting a perspective that goes beyond the traditional short-term market analysis provided in the IEAs monthly Oil Market Report. Drawing on current futures curves and the investment threshold for upstream projects, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report analyses how global demand and supply balances may develop in the next five years. The forecasts look in detail at product demand and the supply potential from all the firmly planned individual upstream and downstream projects around the world. The results provide invaluable insights on vital issues such as surplus production capacity and product supply. The rapid pace of change in the oil market means that forecasts can become outdated very quickly. This interim update provides the opportunity to rebase the data and forecasts in the annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report and to discuss and analyse new issues affecting the oil industry. Policymakers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following trends in the oil market should find this report extremely useful.

Essays on competition in electricity markets

Science.gov (United States)

Bustos Salvagno, Ricardo Javier

The first chapter shows how technology decisions affect entry in commodity markets with oligopolistic competition, like the electricity market. I demonstrate an entry deterrence effect that works through cost uncertainty. Technology's cost uncertainty affects spot market expected profits through forward market trades. Therefore, incentives to engage in forward trading shape firms' decisions on production technologies. I show that high-cost but low-risk technologies are adopted by risk-averse incumbents to deter entry. Strategic technology adoption can end in a equilibrium where high-cost technologies prevail over low-cost but riskier ones. In the case of incumbents who are less risk-averse than entrants, entry deterrence is achieved by choosing riskier technologies. The main results do not depend on who chooses their technology first. Chapter two examines the Chilean experience on auctions for long-term supply contracts in electricity markets from 2006 to 2011. Using a divisible-good auction model, I provide a theoretical framework that explains bidding behavior in terms of expected spot prices and contracting positions. The model is extended to include potential strategic behavior on contracting decisions. Empirical estimations confirm the main determinants of bidding behavior and show heterogeneity in the marginal cost of over-contracting depending on size and incumbency. Chapter three analyzes the lag in capacity expansion in the Chilean electricity market from 2000 to 2004. Regarded as a result of regulatory uncertainty, the role of delays in the construction of a large hydro-power plant has been overlooked by the literature. We argue that those delays postponed projected investment and gave small windows of opportunity that only incumbents could take advantage of. We are able to retrace the history of investments through real-time information from the regulator's reports and a simple model enables us to explain the effect of those delays on suggested and under

Do Short-Term Managerial Objectives Lead to Under- or Over-Investment in Long-Term Projects

OpenAIRE

Lucian Arye Bebchuk; Lars A. Stole

1994-01-01

This paper studies managerial decisions about investment in long-run projects in the presence of imperfect information (the market knows less about such investments than the firm's managers) and short-term managerial objectives (the managers are concerned about the short-term stock price as well as the long-term stock price). Prior work has suggested that imperfect information and short-term managerial objectives induce managers to underinvest in long-run projects. We show that either underin...

The electricity market 2002

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

The purpose of the 'Electricity market 2002' publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic market. Iceland is not included in the description. The publication also includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment. The publication contains data on electricity generation and use during the past years, structure of the electricity market, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic countries and other countries as well as impact of electricity generation system on the environment. The market price of electricity is affected by a number of factors, including fuel prices, availability of water, and the power and energy balances of the various countries. The availability of water in Norway and Sweden has been very good in recent years, which has had a major influence on the price. 1996 was a dry year, which led to a high system price on Nord Pool. The price of electricity then dropped and has remained at a relatively low level up to the year 2001. The price of electricity rose during the spring of 2001 and remained at a higher level also during the summer months. The main reason was that the availability of water was lower than normal in Norway during the early part of the year. This created a higher demand for imported electricity in Norway and caused some apprehension that the year would be dry. The total price of electricity to the end users has not followed the system price development. The total cost of electricity to the end consumers consists of three items, i.e. the price of electricity, the network charges and

Impact of the carbon price on the integrating European electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aatola, Piia; Ollikainen, Markku; Toppinen, Anne

2013-01-01

We study the impact of the carbon price on the integrating electricity market in the EU. Our theoretical framework suggests that the price of carbon has a positive but uneven impact on electricity prices depending on the marginal production plant. The carbon price may increase price differences in the short run. We apply time series analysis on daily forward data from 2003 to 2011 and investigate whether we can find empirical evidence for our analytical findings. Our results support the hypotheses that integration in electricity prices has increased over time and that the carbon price has a positive but uneven impact on the integration of prices. - Highlights: • We model the integrating European electricity market under emissions trading scheme. • We examine the impact of carbon price on the electricity market prices. • We test theoretical hypotheses with econometric models. • Results show carbon price has a positive but uneven impact on electricity prices. • Integration among electricity prices has increased during 2003–2011

Operating an EPR: A strong asset in the future European electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esteve, Bernard; Beutier, Didier

2006-01-01

Recently, two nuclear units have been decided in Europe, both EPR 1,600 MWe. In Finland, TVO Company decided to commission a reactor in 2009 on Olkiluoto site. The license was granted in February 2005 and the construction started in summer. In 2004 in France, EDF Company decided an EPR to be commissioned in 2012 at Flamanville. In both cases, national Parliament vote has given the green light. It is interesting to understand why each company has made such decision. In TVO case, the main driving factor seems to be the need of industrial consumers for low and stable electricity price in a context of growing excess demand. In EDF case, no short term demand, but rather long term electricity company strategy seems to be the main reason. The relation to national energy policy is very clear in both cases. In Finland, the 5. Nuclear Power Plant was decided: - as a key element of the energy mix to meet growing electricity needs while replacing older plants, - to ensure, together with renewables, the fulfillment of the Kyoto commitments, - to secure stable and predictable electricity price for intensive industrial consumers (for instance, paper mills), - to reduce the dependence on electricity import. Here, it is argued more broadly that EPR will be a strong asset in the future European electricity market. To support this argument, we shall describe: 1) to what extent the evolving European electricity market may call for new nuclear units, 2) specific design features explaining why EPR especially fits with expectations, 3) cost assessments giving the conditions of EPR competitiveness, 4) main elements of risk assessment and how they are dealt with. (authors)

Hedging tools and cross market applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schlenker, C.

1997-01-01

The nature of the basic tools of the market - put, call, and swap - their various combinations and how they are used in various market transactions were explained. The role and effect of the use of these tools on prices, price fluctuations and risks were outlined. Predictions for the future for producers (reduced use of price optimization and its replacement by price diversification strategies, realignment of risk management tools to be in accord with the changed marketing techniques), and for end users (focus on managing short term fluctuations in input costs, short-term price fixing, more frequent utilization of traditional option strategies and spread options), were summarized. For the electricity market in particular, the prominence of gas-fired generation units as options on the spread between gas and electricity, providing opportunities for outperformance options was predicted

Designing the input vector to ANN-based models for short-term load forecast in electricity distribution systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos, P.J.; Martins, A.G.; Pires, A.J.

2007-01-01

The present trend to electricity market restructuring increases the need for reliable short-term load forecast (STLF) algorithms, in order to assist electric utilities in activities such as planning, operating and controlling electric energy systems. Methodologies such as artificial neural networks (ANN) have been widely used in the next hour load forecast horizon with satisfactory results. However, this type of approach has had some shortcomings. Usually, the input vector (IV) is defined in a arbitrary way, mainly based on experience, on engineering judgment criteria and on concern about the ANN dimension, always taking into consideration the apparent correlations within the available endogenous and exogenous data. In this paper, a proposal is made of an approach to define the IV composition, with the main focus on reducing the influence of trial-and-error and common sense judgments, which usually are not based on sufficient evidence of comparative advantages over previous alternatives. The proposal includes the assessment of the strictly necessary instances of the endogenous variable, both from the point of view of the contiguous values prior to the forecast to be made, and of the past values representing the trend of consumption at homologous time intervals of the past. It also assesses the influence of exogenous variables, again limiting their presence at the IV to the indispensable minimum. A comparison is made with two alternative IV structures previously proposed in the literature, also applied to the distribution sector. The paper is supported by a real case study at the distribution sector. (author)

Short-term impact evaluation of a social marketing campaign to prevent syphilis among men who have sex with men.

Science.gov (United States)

Darrow, William W; Biersteker, Susan

2008-02-01

We carried out an independent short-term impact evaluation of a social marketing campaign designed to reduce syphilis infections among men who have sex with men in south Florida in 2004. Venue-based surveys were conducted shortly after the campaign began and 6 months later to assess changes in exposure to campaign materials, awareness, knowledge about syphilis, perceptions of risk, sexual behavior, clinic visits, and testing and treatment for syphilis among participants. Exposure to social marketing campaign materials increased from 18.0% at baseline to 36.5% at follow-up (Pcampaign objectives were fully met. The interventions were insufficient to produce a significant impact among men who have sex with men in south Florida.

Determinants of Short-Term Export Performance in Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms.Amber; Habib, Sukaina

2010-01-01

This research investigates the interdependency between independent (Increase of pricing strategy adaptation, Increase of export intensity, Firm's commitment to exporting, Export market development, Export market competition, Past Pricing Strategy Adaptation, Past Export Performance Satisfaction, Past Export Intensity, Export market distance) and dependent variables (i.e. Expected Short-Term Export Performance improvement) of export performance. The framework is tested via a survey through que...

Market power analysis for the Iranian electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asgari, Mohammad Hossein; Monsef, Hassan

2010-01-01

The market power problem in Iranian electricity market is addressed in this study. This paper by using various structural indices of market power and reviewing market results analyzes the intensity of competition in Iran's electricity market and examines whether this market is functioning at an appropriate level of efficiency. In this article the most well-known indices of market power are calculated in two approaches for two different scenarios (current situation and future outlook of generation sector's ownership in Iran's power industry). Comparing the results of these scenarios promises more competitive market for the second scenario. Calculating Residual Supply Index for Iran's power market shows despite admissible values of concentration ratios, due to supply scarcity during periods when the demand is close to the total available capacity, some suppliers can exercise market power even with a relatively small market share. The most important price and load indices like weighted average prices and load/price duration curves of Iranian electricity market during March 2007-March 2008 are also analyzed in this paper. These results imply the existence of economic withholding. The main limiting factors of competition and significant implemented countermeasures for market power mitigation in Iran's electricity market are also mentioned.

Dynamics of the Croatian electricity market opening

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pesut, D.; Zeljko, M.; Zutobradic, S.

2003-01-01

Customer eligibility is regulated by the Law on Electricity Market and its Article 23 (Official Gazette 79/01). Eligibility is understood as a possible supplier choice. To ensure the eligible status, annual demand should exceed 40 GWh. The category of customers that has gained the eligibility status based on the Law on Electricity Market makes out a total of around 7 percent of the annual electric energy consumption in Croatia. Thus, it can be said that electricity market openness in Croatia lies somewhat below 10 percent. According to the already mentioned Article 23, paragraph 4, the Government may determine annual demand threshold lowering as a condition to grant the eligibility status. According to the Law on Gas Market from 2001, the category of eligible gas customers in Croatia includes all electricity generators who use gas, regardless of the annual gas consumption, and other customers whose annual consumption exceeds 100 million m3. In 2002 there were seven such customers and they participated with 1,374,160,000 m3, i.e. 51 percent in the total gas consumption. As INA is the sole natural gas producer in Croatia with a long-term contract on the supply line lease for the transportation of Russian gas, it is also the only supplier of natural gas. Therefore, in 2002 each eligible customer bought gas from INA. Issues related to this field are: what kind of dynamics should one proceed with toward further energy market opening in Croatia? How large is this share of electricity, i.e. gas consumption in Croatia? What are the prerequisites, both organisational and technical, for this kind of market opening? (author)

Stochastic Optimal Regulation Service Strategy for a Wind Farm Participating in the Electricity Market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Baohua; Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe

2015-01-01

in the stochastic optimization to deal with the uncertainty of the up regulation price and the up regulation activation of the power system.The Danish short-term electricity market and a wind farm in western Denmark are chosen to evaluate the effect of the proposed strategy. Simulation results showthe proposed......As modern wind farmshave the ability to provideregulation service for the power system, wind power plant operators may be motivated to participate in the regulating market to maximize their profit.In this paper, anoptimal regulation servicestrategy for a wind farm to participate...... strategy can increase the revenue of wind farms by leavinga certain amount of wind powerfor regulation service....

Has renewable energy induced competitive behavior in the Spanish electricity market?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciarreta, Aitor; Espinosa, Maria Paz; Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina

2017-01-01

Recent energy policy has favored a massive introduction of Renewable Energy Sources on electricity markets, which has greatly impacted their performance. First, the electricity price has decreased as a consequence of the so-called merit-order effect. Another relevant effect is associated to the intermittent nature of Renewable Energy, which has increased the cost of ancillary services. A third and important aspect, less addressed in the literature, is the induced change in the strategic behavior of the conventional electricity producers. In principle, the entry of new generators in a concentrated market would make it more competitive and change the strategic behavior of the incumbents. We test this hypothesis for the Spanish wholesale market. While we find no significant change in behavior for Nuclear, Hydropower and Coal, a change is observed in Combined Cycle bidding strategies after the entry of renewable generators. Our analysis shows that the massive entry of Renewable Energy Sources made other generators' behavior more competitive in the short run, but the effect was not persistent. - Highlights: • The indirect effects of RES affect prices in electricity markets. • RES induced little change in Nuclear, Coal and Hydropower generation. • Combined Cycle bidding strategies have evolved to adapt to the introduction of RES. • RES made Combined Cycle's behavior more competitive in the short run. • The competitive effect induced by RES is not persistent in the long run.

Electricity costs in a changing market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lea, J.

2003-01-01

Maritime Electric is the electric utility for Prince Edward Island (PEI). This paper outlined the energy supply strategy for the province along with its system performance and improvements. In 1992 the energy supply for PEI was 772 GWh with an energy mix of nuclear, coal, and short term purchases. In 2002, the energy supply mix was similar but the total supply was 1020 GWh. In December 2002, the peak load on the Island exceeded cable capacity. Load growth is projected to continue. The utility buys approximately 65 per cent of its energy under short term contracts. Energy options for PEI include off-island purchases, natural gas, wind, or energy conservation. However, in terms of off-island purchases, no new capacity is planned for either Nova Scotia or New Brunswick and the future of the 630 MW Point Lepreau nuclear power station is not clear. By 2005, PEI expects to have a new 50 MW gas turbine for added reliability. By 2010, the power mix in PEI should include 10 per cent coal, 15 per cent nuclear, 20 per cent short term purchases, 30 per cent new base load supply, 15 per cent intermediate load supply, and 10 per cent wind power. 1 tab., 6 figs

Electricity spot price forecasting in free power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lilleberg, J.; Laitinen, E.K.

1998-01-01

Deregulation has brought many changes to the electricity market. Freedom of choice has been granted to both the consumers and the utilities. Consumers may choose the seller of their energy. Utilities have a wider array of sources to acquire their electricity from. Also the types of sales contracts used are changing to fill the needs of this new situation. The consumers' right to choose has introduced a new risk uncertainty of volume, which was not true during the times of monopoly. As sold volume is unsure and the energy is not sold on same terms as it is bought, a price risk has to be dealt with also. The electric utility has to realize this, select a risk level that suits its business strategy and optimize its actions according to the selected risk level. The number of participants will grow as the electricity market integrates into a common market for Scandinavia and even Europe. Big customers are also taking a more active role in the market, further increasing the number of participants. This makes old bilateral arrangements outdated. New tools are needed to control the new business environment. The goal of this project has been to develop a theoretical model to predict the price in the Finnish electricity exchange, El-Ex Oy. An extensive literature review was conducted in order to (1) examine the solutions in deregulation of electricity markets in other countries, esp. in Norway and UK, (2) find similarities and differences in electricity exchange and exchanges generally and (3) find major sources of problems and inefficiency in the market

Electricity spot price forecasting in free power market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lilleberg, J; Laitinen, E K [Vaasa Univ. (Finland)

1998-08-01

Deregulation has brought many changes to the electricity market. Freedom of choice has been granted to both the consumers and the utilities. Consumers may choose the seller of their energy. Utilities have a wider array of sources to acquire their electricity from. Also the types of sales contracts used are changing to fill the needs of this new situation. The consumers` right to choose has introduced a new risk uncertainty of volume, which was not true during the times of monopoly. As sold volume is unsure and the energy is not sold on same terms as it is bought, a price risk has to be dealt with also. The electric utility has to realize this, select a risk level that suits its business strategy and optimize its actions according to the selected risk level. The number of participants will grow as the electricity market integrates into a common market for Scandinavia and even Europe. Big customers are also taking a more active role in the market, further increasing the number of participants. This makes old bilateral arrangements outdated. New tools are needed to control the new business environment. The goal of this project has been to develop a theoretical model to predict the price in the Finnish electricity exchange, El-Ex Oy. An extensive literature review was conducted in order to (1) examine the solutions in deregulation of electricity markets in other countries, esp. in Norway and UK, (2) find similarities and differences in electricity exchange and exchanges generally and (3) find major sources of problems and inefficiency in the market

Independent power and cogeneration in Ontario's new competitive electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnstable, A.G.

1999-01-01

The factors influencing the initial market pricing in the early years of Ontario's new electricity market were discussed with particular insight on the potential for near term development of independent power and cogeneration. The major factors influencing prices include: (1) no increase in retail prices, (2) financial restructuring of Ontario Hydro, (3) the Market Power Mitigation Agreement, (4) tighter power plant emissions standards, and (5) an electricity supply and demand balance. Generation competition is not expected to influence market pricing in the early years of the new electricity market. Prices will instead reflect the restructuring decisions of the Ontario government. The decision to have Ontario Power Generation Inc. (OPGI) as a single generator for Ontario Hydro's generation assets will ensure that average spot market pricing in the early market years will be close to a 3.8 c/kWh revenue cap

Restructured electric power systems analysis of electricity markets with equilibrium models

CERN Document Server

2010-01-01

Electricity market deregulation is driving the power energy production from a monopolistic structure into a competitive market environment. The development of electricity markets has necessitated the need to analyze market behavior and power. Restructured Electric Power Systems reviews the latest developments in electricity market equilibrium models and discusses the application of such models in the practical analysis and assessment of electricity markets.

Panorama 2012 - Short-term trends in the gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lecarpentier, Armelle

2011-12-01

Against the background of an energy market beset by the Fukushima crisis, the Arab spring and economic uncertainty, 2011 saw dynamic growth in demand for natural gas, although developments varied widely from region to region. New trends are emerging in the gas market, and these will have both short-term and longer-term impacts on how the industry develops. (author)

Short-Term Electricity-Load Forecasting Using a TSK-Based Extreme Learning Machine with Knowledge Representation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chan-Uk Yeom

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses short-term electricity-load forecasting using an extreme learning machine (ELM with automatic knowledge representation from a given input-output data set. For this purpose, we use a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK-based ELM to develop a systematic approach to generating if-then rules, while the conventional ELM operates without knowledge information. The TSK-ELM design includes a two-phase development. First, we generate an initial random-partition matrix and estimate cluster centers for random clustering. The obtained cluster centers are used to determine the premise parameters of fuzzy if-then rules. Next, the linear weights of the TSK fuzzy type are estimated using the least squares estimate (LSE method. These linear weights are used as the consequent parameters in the TSK-ELM design. The experiments were performed on short-term electricity-load data for forecasting. The electricity-load data were used to forecast hourly day-ahead loads given temperature forecasts; holiday information; and historical loads from the New England ISO. In order to quantify the performance of the forecaster, we use metrics and statistical characteristics such as root mean squared error (RMSE as well as mean absolute error (MAE, mean absolute percent error (MAPE, and R-squared, respectively. The experimental results revealed that the proposed method showed good performance when compared with a conventional ELM with four activation functions such sigmoid, sine, radial basis function, and rectified linear unit (ReLU. It possessed superior prediction performance and knowledge information and a small number of rules.

Optimal charging of electric drive vehicles in a market environment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristoffersen, Trine Krogh; Capion, Karsten Emil; Meibom, Peter

2011-01-01

With a potential to facilitate the integration of renewable energy into the electricity system, electric drive vehicles may offer a considerable flexibility by allowing for charging and discharging when desired. This paper takes the perspective of an aggregator that manages the electricity market...... participation of a vehicle fleet and presents a framework for optimizing charging and discharging of the electric drive vehicles, given the driving patterns of the fleet and the variations in market prices of electricity. When the aggregator is a price-taker the optimization can be stated in terms of linear...... programming whereas a quadratic programming formulation is required when he/she has market power. A Danish case study illustrates the construction of representative driving patterns through clustering of survey data from Western Denmark and the prediction of electricity price variations through regression...

Short Term Electric Production Technology Switching Under Carbon Cap and Trade

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donald F. Larson

2012-10-01

Full Text Available This study examines fuel switching in electricity production following the introduction of the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS for greenhouse gas emissions. A short-run restricted cost equation is estimated with carbon permits, high-carbon fuels, and low carbon fuels as variable inputs. Shadow values and substitution elasticities for carbon-free energy resources from nuclear, hydroelectric and renewable sources are imputed from the cost equation. The empirical analysis examines 12 European countries using monthly data on fuel use, prices, and electricity generation during the first phase of the European Emissions Trading System. Despite low emission permit prices, this study finds statistically significant substitution between fossil fuels and carbon free sources of energy for electric power production. Significant substitution between fossil fuels and nuclear energy also was found. Still, while 18 of the 20 substitution elasticities are statistically significant, they are all less than unity, consistent with limited substitution. Overall, these results suggest that prices for carbon emission permits relative to prices for carbon and carbon free sources of energy do matter but that electric power producers have limited operational flexibility in the short-run to satisfy greenhouse gas emission limits.

Study on the Swiss electricity market - the current situation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walti, N. O.

2007-01-01

This short article discusses the results of a study made on the opinions of energy suppliers in Switzerland with respect to future power generation in Switzerland. In particular, questions concerning new nuclear power stations and gas-fueled generating facilities are examined. The study was commissioned to tackle questions concerning the liberalisation of the electricity market, a future possible gap in supply, mains regulation and changes in market structure. The article discusses the findings of the study, in which 87 utilities took part, and lists strategic areas for action to be taken by electricity utilities such as efficiency analysis, regulation management, co-operative sourcing and possible mergers and acquisitions

Wholesale electricity markets in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rios, J. L.

2010-01-01

Electricity Wholesale Markets provide efficient operation of power stations, facilitate hedging instruments for generators and retailers and deliver price signals for new investments. Despite having a common regulatory framework at European level whose last aim is a single electricity market, Wholesale markets have been unevenly developed in each Member State. The evolution form a spot-based market towards a forward-based market needs a certain level of liquidity, transparency and regulatory stability. Interconnections are the key element to promote the integration of electricity markets. To facilitate this, European Regional Initiatives have pushed regulatory harmonization between countries and market coupling projects. (Author)

Alberta's electricity forwards market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andrews, D.

2002-01-01

This paper outlined how the province of Alberta is starting over with a wholesale electricity market. Wholesalers have retreated back to the real-time market. The Watt-Ex standard market design position paper, issued in October 2002, examines wholesale market issues. The author notes that the biggest constraint to competitive electricity market is the reliance on real-time markets to price a good portion of transactions. Doing so, creates extreme price volatility and ineffective price signals because demand and supply have only a limited ability to respond to prices

Competitiveness of nuclear power in Japanese liberalized electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abe, Y.

2006-01-01

The liberalization of Japanese electricity market expanded to customers of over 50 kV on April 1, 2005 and more than 60% of the market has been already open. The discussion about the assistance measures of nuclear power generation in Japanese liberalization of electricity market has come to grow warmer gradually. The opinions on the competitiveness of nuclear power are inconsistency among the supporters of nuclear power. Some says that nuclear power is the most competitive, others says nuclear power require some sort of financial or political assistance in the deregulation of electricity market. In this study, based on financial statements of each Japanese electric power company, the constitution of generation cost of nuclear power is illustrated and various financial and economic characteristics, including ''merit of scale'' and the impact of new nuclear power plant construction on the finance of electric power company, are discussed. In addition, the economic features of nuclear power generation are compared with those of thermal power generation through the analysis of financial statements. Finally, support policies for nuclear power required in deregulation of electric utilities are examined in terms of fairness of competition and security of electricity supply

Adequacy of supply standards for the electricity market: from obligations to informal market signals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Werven, Michiel J.N. van; Nooij, Michiel de; Scheepers, Martin J.J.

2005-06-01

The adequacy of supply standard is ultimately based on a loss of load probability in combination with assumptions about the extent to which the national system can count on assistance of adjoining electricity supply systems during times of shortages. It can be used to calculate the required generation capacity in an ex-ante market analysis using different future scenarios. This standard in combination with monitoring of (future) market developments on the basis of several market indicators, can give a signal to market participants with respect to the expected adequacy of supply in the longer term. Market participants are informed about the actual and expected future status of adequacy of supply in the market. It is, however, very important that the assessment and the resulting signal should not be used by the government to intervene in the market, but only to improve market transparency and assist producers, suppliers, and consumers in their decisions towards an effective and efficient response on long-term market developments. Specific policy measures based on the monitoring results could provoke strategic behaviour of market participants. The signalising standard might be a powerful instrument in helping to solve the generation adequacy problem. This solution can be seen as a compromise between options that fully rely on an optimal response by the free electricity market and options where governments take the full responsibility

Study on electricity markets in Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandra FLOREA

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we detail about the components of the wholesale electricity market in Romania: Market for Bilateral Contracts (Central Market with continuous double negotiation of bilateral electric energy contracts (CM - OTC, Centralized Market for bilateral electric energy contracts, Day-Ahead Market (DAM, Inter-Daily Market (IM, Balancing Market (BM, Centralized Market for universal service (CMUS. In addition, for each type of market we generated diagrams with the main business processes.

Marketing of electric vehicles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gaerling, A.; Thoegersen, J.

2001-01-01

Substituting electric vehicles for traditional ones could reduce local pollution and greenhouse emissions from the transportation system. However, these societal benefits come at high costs to the owner of the EV in terms of price, driving range, availability, loading capacity, speed and acceleration. In addition, the usability of an EV is hampered by the lack of an infrastructure for recharging. Such a product hardly sells itself to potential customers. Besides supportive national policies, skillful marketing is needed to get it accepted and diffused throughout society. This paper outlines a two-phase strategy for the marketing of EVs based on a discussion of current and expected future characteristics of EVs and on a review of research on early adopters. (author)

The draft of the new electricity market law at a glance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voss, Jan Ole; Kirschnick, Stephan

2016-01-01

The conclusion of the new electricity market law is: ''The market will judge it''. A refined market where the renewable energies are increasingly integrated, shall guarantee reasonable prices, security of supply and environmental protection. Whether this can be achieved in reality, is highly questionable. This would require that the overcapacity of the German electricity market confirmed in several reports and the wholesale price for electricity recovers the long term. Only then can it be assumed that investment incentives arise in the construction of modern and efficient power generation plants. Such a ''market-faithful'' system is also absolutely dependent on the behavior of neighboring European countries. Only when these go along the path and affect the price and capacity development not regulatory, the completion of a functioning, liberalized EU internal market for electricity can succeed. [de

Dynamics of electricity market correlations

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Escarela-Perez, R.; Espinosa-Perez, G.; Urrea, R.

2009-06-01

Electricity market participants rely on demand and price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate assets, negotiate bilateral contracts, hedge risks, and plan facility investments. However, forecasting is hampered by the non-linear and stochastic nature of price time series. Diverse modeling strategies, from neural networks to traditional transfer functions, have been explored. These approaches are based on the assumption that price series contain correlations that can be exploited for model-based prediction purposes. While many works have been devoted to the demand and price modeling, a limited number of reports on the nature and dynamics of electricity market correlations are available. This paper uses detrended fluctuation analysis to study correlations in the demand and price time series and takes the Australian market as a case study. The results show the existence of correlations in both demand and prices over three orders of magnitude in time ranging from hours to months. However, the Hurst exponent is not constant over time, and its time evolution was computed over a subsample moving window of 250 observations. The computations, also made for two Canadian markets, show that the correlations present important fluctuations over a seasonal one-year cycle. Interestingly, non-linearities (measured in terms of a multifractality index) and reduced price predictability are found for the June-July periods, while the converse behavior is displayed during the December-January period. In terms of forecasting models, our results suggest that non-linear recursive models should be considered for accurate day-ahead price estimation. On the other hand, linear models seem to suffice for demand forecasting purposes.

The Nordic financial electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2010-11-15

NordREG is a cooperation of the Nordic energy regulators. The mission is to actively promote legal and institutional framework and conditions necessary for developing the Nordic and European electricity markets. The financial market is an important market for market participants to mitigate their risks. By providing tools for risk management, the financial market contributes to the efficient functioning of both wholesale and end-user markets. NordREG decided during 2009 to undertake a study on the Nordic financial electricity market. The aim of the report is to consider whether any improvements can be made to further increase the efficiency of the Nordic financial electricity market in order to secure an optimal price setting in the wholesale and the end-user markets

Market power in electricity markets: Beyond concentration measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borenstein, S.; Bushnell, J.; Knittel, C.R.

1999-01-01

The wave of electricity market restructuring both within the US and abroad has brought the issue of horizontal market power to the forefront of energy policy. Traditionally, estimation and prediction of market power has relied heavily on concentration measures. In this paper, the authors discuss the weaknesses of concentration measures as a viable measure of market power in the electricity industry, and they propose an alternative method based on market simulations that take advantage of existing plant level data. The authors discuss results from previous studies they have performed, and present new results that allow for the detection of threshold demand levels where market power is likely to be a problem. In addition, the authors analyze the impact of that recent divestitures in the California electricity market will have on estimated market power. They close with a discussion of the policy implications of the results

How to benefit from a common European electricity market design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringler, Philipp; Keles, Dogan; Fichtner, Wolf

2017-01-01

The realization of an Internal Electricity Market in Europe is currently, on the one hand, progressing, in particular thanks to the wide-spread implementation of market coupling solutions for cross-border congestion management. On the other hand, diverging national market designs pose a threat to the continuation of this process. Given the challenges to electricity market design in a multi-regional context, we analyze how different design aspects, namely cross-border congestion management and capacity mechanisms, affect welfare and generation adequacy in Europe. In doing so, we rely on an agent-based simulation model for electricity wholesale markets which we apply within several numerical, computational case studies for the region of Central Western Europe (2012–2030). Our results confirm the benefits of market coupling in terms of welfare as well as generation adequacy. Furthermore, we find indications that coordinating market designs across regions supports these targets. Therefore, we recommend that European energy policy forms a stable, transparent regulatory framework with cross-border market coupling as an integral component. In this context, energy policy targets should be clearly defined and operationalized, which also needs to consider potential conflicts between them. Finally, electricity market designs need to be coordinated among states to benefit most from a common European market. - Highlights: • European electricity markets at crossroads given diverging market designs • Simulation of CWE Market Coupling using an agent-based model. • Welfare and adequacy gains from European market coupling and new interconnections. • Conflicts between energy policy targets to be considered in market design. • Coordination key to further strengthen integration of electricity markets in Europe.

Electricity market reform failures: UK, Norway, Alberta and California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chikeung Woo; Lloyd, Debra; Tishler, Asher

2003-01-01

An analysis of electricity market reforms already taken place in the UK, Norway, Alberta (Canada) and California (USA) leads to our overall conclusion that the introduction of a competitive generation market, of itself, has failed to deliver reliable service at low and stable prices. The market reform failures are attributed to market power abuse by few dominant sellers (especially at times of transmission congestion), poor market design that invites strategic bidding by suppliers, the lack of customer response to price spikes, capacity shortage caused by demand growth not matched by new capacity, and thin trading of forward and futures contracts that are critical for price discovery and risk management. The paper then explains why an electricity market reform can easily fail to deliver the promised gains of better service at lower and more stable prices. The policy implication is that an electric market reform can be extremely risky, and may lead to a disastrous outcome. Thus, it is imprudent to implement such a reform in countries with limited sites for new generation and no indigenous fuels (e.g., Israel and Hong Kong). These countries should therefore consider introducing performance-based regulation that can immediately benefit electricity consumers in terms of lower prices, more stable prices, improved reliability, more choices, while encouraging the electric sector to pursue efficient operation and investment. (Author)

Electricity market reform failures: UK, Norway, Alberta and California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, C.-K.; Lloyd, Debra; Tishler, Asher

2003-01-01

An analysis of electricity market reforms already taken place in the UK, Norway, Alberta (Canada) and California (USA) leads to our overall conclusion that the introduction of a competitive generation market, of itself, has failed to deliver reliable service at low and stable prices. The market reform failures are attributed to market power abuse by few dominant sellers (especially at times of transmission congestion), poor market design that invites strategic bidding by suppliers, the lack of customer response to price spikes, capacity shortage caused by demand growth not matched by new capacity, and thin trading of forward and futures contracts that are critical for price discovery and risk management. The paper then explains why an electricity market reform can easily fail to deliver the promised gains of better service at lower and more stable prices. The policy implication is that an electric market reform can be extremely risky, and may lead to a disastrous outcome. Thus, it is imprudent to implement such a reform in countries with limited sites for new generation and no indigenous fuels (e.g., Israel and Hong Kong). These countries should therefore consider introducing performance-based regulation that can immediately benefit electricity consumers in terms of lower prices, more stable prices, improved reliability, more choices, while encouraging the electric sector to pursue efficient operation and investment

Electric vehicles in imperfect electricity markets: The case of Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schill, Wolf-Peter

2011-01-01

We use a game-theoretic model to analyze the impacts of a hypothetical fleet of plug-in electric vehicles on the imperfectly competitive German electricity market. Electric vehicles bring both additional demand and additional storage capacity to the market. We determine the effects on prices, welfare, and electricity generation for various cases with different players in charge of vehicle operations. Vehicle loading increases generator profits, but decreases consumer surplus in the power market. If excess vehicle batteries can be used for storage, welfare results are reversed: generating firms suffer from the price-smoothing effect of additional storage, whereas power consumers benefit despite increasing overall demand. Strategic players tend to under-utilize the storage capacity of the vehicle fleet, which may have negative welfare implications. In contrast, we find a market power-mitigating effect of electric vehicle recharging on oligopolistic generators. Overall, electric vehicles are unlikely to be a relevant source of market power in Germany in the foreseeable future. - Highlights: → We study the effect of electric vehicles on an imperfectly competitive electricity market. → We apply a game-theoretic model to the German market. → There is a market power-mitigating effect of vehicle loading on oligopolistic generating firms. → Consumers benefit from electric vehicles if excess battery capacity can be used for grid storage. → Electric vehicles are unlikely to be a source of market power in Germany in the near future.

A Novel Hybrid Model Based on Extreme Learning Machine, k-Nearest Neighbor Regression and Wavelet Denoising Applied to Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weide Li

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Electric load forecasting plays an important role in electricity markets and power systems. Because electric load time series are complicated and nonlinear, it is very difficult to achieve a satisfactory forecasting accuracy. In this paper, a hybrid model, Wavelet Denoising-Extreme Learning Machine optimized by k-Nearest Neighbor Regression (EWKM, which combines k-Nearest Neighbor (KNN and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM based on a wavelet denoising technique is proposed for short-term load forecasting. The proposed hybrid model decomposes the time series into a low frequency-associated main signal and some detailed signals associated with high frequencies at first, then uses KNN to determine the independent and dependent variables from the low-frequency signal. Finally, the ELM is used to get the non-linear relationship between these variables to get the final prediction result for the electric load. Compared with three other models, Extreme Learning Machine optimized by k-Nearest Neighbor Regression (EKM, Wavelet Denoising-Extreme Learning Machine (WKM and Wavelet Denoising-Back Propagation Neural Network optimized by k-Nearest Neighbor Regression (WNNM, the model proposed in this paper can improve the accuracy efficiently. New South Wales is the economic powerhouse of Australia, so we use the proposed model to predict electric demand for that region. The accurate prediction has a significant meaning.

Electricity regulation and electricity market reforms in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ngan, H.W.

2010-01-01

The electricity industry of China has been in a process of reforms since the 1980s. This paper gives a review on the three main stages of reforms in China so as to trace out key features of various reform measures including those for power investment financing, the separation between government and power enterprises, and the division between power generation firms and power grids. The findings suggest that further regulatory change in China's electricity market reform is necessary when integration of the electricity markets and increased competition are paving the way ahead for a market-oriented structure. Prospective electricity regulation in the form of a strong legal system and effective institutions that protect market competition and promote appropriate incentives for efficiency are suggested in the paper. (author)

Evaluating the Impact of an Active Labour Market Policy on Employment: Short- and Long-Term Perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José M. Cansino

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The Labour Market Insertion Contract was an Active Labour Market Policy introduced in Spain. It was aimed at individuals who had difficulties entering the labour market, and it was introduced with the purpose of reducing the rate of unemployment. This article provides an estimation of the average impact that this contract had on the employability of individuals in the short and long term. A microeconomic analysis was carried out based on causal statistical inference by using propensity score matching and kernel and radial estimators. Data was taken from the most comprehensive database available, which is the Continuous Sample of Work Histories. Results are consistent with literature reports and show that the employability of participants was inferior to that of individuals with similar, temporary-type contracts. This research contributes to the literature by evaluating whether there was empirical evidence to support the political decision to revoke or replace this kind of direct employment programme.

Bulgarian electricity market restructuring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ganev, Peter

2009-01-01

The energy sector in Bulgaria has undergone major restructuring in recent years. It faces the dual challenges of achieving regulatory stability to attract private investors, and creating a functioning competition energy market. As of the EU Accession in 2007, Bulgaria has fully liberalized power and gas markets. The 2003 Energy Law establishes the energy sector legal framework and sets the basis for creation of a transparent and predictable regulatory environment where the key regulatory responsibilities are vested with the State Energy and Water Regulatory Commission (SEWRC). The energy sector experienced significant problems in the first half of 2007 due to lost production capacities and regulatory failures on the electricity market. Excess price regulations on the market of electricity supplies to household, coupled with insufficient liberalization of imports and exports, create unfavorable conditions for power producers and large electricity users. The energy regulator has tried to achieve several incompatible targets as of July 1, 2007 for maintaining low electricity prices for households in response to political pressure, low power generation prices amid rising input costs, and market opening in compliance with EU regulations. (author)

Electricity prices and generator behaviour in gross pool electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Mahoney, Amy; Denny, Eleanor

2013-01-01

Electricity market liberalisation has become common practice internationally. The justification for this process has been to enhance competition in a market traditionally characterised by statutory monopolies in an attempt to reduce costs to end-users. This paper endeavours to see whether a pool market achieves this goal of increasing competition and reducing electricity prices. Here the electricity market is set up as a sealed bid second price auction. Theory predicts that such markets should result with firms bidding their marginal cost, thereby resulting in an efficient outcome and lower costs to consumers. The Irish electricity system with a gross pool market experiences among the highest electricity prices in Europe. Thus, we analyse the Irish pool system econometrically in order to test if the high electricity prices seen there are due to participants bidding outside of market rules or out of line with theory. Overall we do not find any evidence that the interaction between generator and the pool in the Irish electricity market is not efficient. Thus, the pool element of the market structure does not explain the high electricity prices experienced in Ireland. - Highlights: • We consider whether a gross pool achieves competitive behaviour. • We analyse the Irish pool system econometrically. • Results indicate the Irish pool system appears to work efficiently. • Generators appear to be bidding appropriately

Competitive electric power markets and grid reliability : something has changed during the past decade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fluckiger, K.

2005-01-01

This white paper reviewed some of the fundamental changes in the way in which electricity is provided to customers. Previously, electricity was delivered by integrated electric utilities that owned both generation and transmission and directly served their customers. Restructuring altered the rules that govern control, operation, ownership and regulation of the industry. The traditional integrated utility has been disaggregated. Wholesale electricity costs are no longer regulated and prices are now set by supply and demand in a market context. Generation investment decisions are based on future expectations of market performance. It was suggested that transmission should become a facilitator of the competitive market. Inter-ties are an essential part of a competitive market, as a means to import power when needed and to export surplus energy. The role of transmission in facilitating new generation by providing non-discriminatory and efficient transport to the market was discussed. It was noted that the lack of transmission investment is resulting in economic penalties, rising losses and constraints on more economic generators. Transmission congestion is counterproductive to the interests of customers. A move away from regional planning to a recognition of the wider interconnectedness of the system was recommended. The current practice of deferring necessary maintenance as a way to generate short-term profit was examined. It was noted that despite the need for new transmission infrastructure, investment in merchant alternating current projects has been slow to materialize. Other challenges to transmission included the uncertainty of regulatory processes and investment recovery as well as the unpredictability of flow patterns in the bulk power system. It was concluded that competitive generation markets will not work with an inadequate transmission infrastructure. Transmission enables new generation by ensuring non-discriminatory and efficient transport to market

Utilizing a vanadium redox flow battery to avoid wind power deviation penalties in an electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turker, Burak; Arroyo Klein, Sebastian; Komsiyska, Lidiya; Trujillo, Juan José; Bremen, Lueder von; Kühn, Martin; Busse, Matthias

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Vanadium redox flow battery utilized for wind power grid integration was studied. • Technical and financial analyses at single wind farm level were performed. • 2 MW/6 MW h VRFB is suitable for mitigating power deviations for a 10 MW wind farm. • Economic incentives might be required in the short-term until the VRFB prices drop. - Abstract: Utilizing a vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) for better market integration of wind power at a single wind farm level was evaluated. A model which combines a VRFB unit and a medium sized (10 MW) wind farm was developed and the battery was utilized to compensate for the deviations resulting from the forecast errors in an electricity market bidding structure. VRFB software model which was introduced in our previous paper was integrated with real wind power data, power forecasts and market data based on the Spanish electricity market. Economy of the system was evaluated by financial assessments which were done by considering the VRFB costs and the amount of deviation penalty payments resulting from forecast inaccuracies

Convergence of the gas and electricity market - Implications for the traditional players

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waffel, H. Dieter

1999-01-01

This presentation begins with an overview of PreussenElektra, a company that generates electricity from a variety of energy sources, including gas. It then describes developments in the European electricity market and finds striking similarities between that market and the electricity market of the USA as of 1992. Then issues concerning convergence of gas and electricity are considered. Experience from the USA shows that experience gained during gas deregulation could be used in electricity deregulation. Many natural synergies exist between the electric and gas markets, which could speed convergence. One of the first signals of convergence will be the formation of strategic alliances between gas and electricity companies. There are many open questions to consider as deregulation is implemented and convergence occurs. Convergence in Europe promises to be a near-term growth opportunity for advocates and consultants. Market dynamics promise that there will be winners and losers. Incumbency is an advantage, not an assurance of success

Convergence of the gas and electricity market - Implications for the traditional players

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waffel, H. Dieter

1999-07-01

This presentation begins with an overview of PreussenElektra, a company that generates electricity from a variety of energy sources, including gas. It then describes developments in the European electricity market and finds striking similarities between that market and the electricity market of the USA as of 1992. Then issues concerning convergence of gas and electricity are considered. Experience from the USA shows that experience gained during gas deregulation could be used in electricity deregulation. Many natural synergies exist between the electric and gas markets, which could speed convergence. One of the first signals of convergence will be the formation of strategic alliances between gas and electricity companies. There are many open questions to consider as deregulation is implemented and convergence occurs. Convergence in Europe promises to be a near-term growth opportunity for advocates and consultants. Market dynamics promise that there will be winners and losers. Incumbency is an advantage, not an assurance of success.

Convergence of the gas and electricity markets - Implications for the traditional players

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waffel, H. Dieter

1999-07-01

This presentation begins with an overview of PreussenElektra, a company that generates electricity from a variety of energy sources, including gas. It then describes developments in the European electricity market and finds striking similarities between that market and the electricity market of the USA as of 1992. Then issues concerning convergence of gas and electricity are considered. Experience from the USA shows that experience gained during gas deregulation could be used in electricity deregulation. Many natural synergies exist between the electric and gas markets, which could speed convergence. One of the first signals of convergence will be the formation of strategic alliances between gas and electricity companies. There are many open questions to consider as deregulation is implemented and convergence occurs. Convergence in Europe promises to be a near-term growth opportunity for advocates and consultants. Market dynamics promise that there will be winners and losers. Incumbency is an advantage, not an assurance of success.

Basic Principles of Electrical Network Reliability Optimization in Liberalised Electricity Market

Science.gov (United States)

Oleinikova, I.; Krishans, Z.; Mutule, A.

2008-01-01

The authors propose to select long-term solutions to the reliability problems of electrical networks in the stage of development planning. The guide lines or basic principles of such optimization are: 1) its dynamical nature; 2) development sustainability; 3) integrated solution of the problems of network development and electricity supply reliability; 4) consideration of information uncertainty; 5) concurrent consideration of the network and generation development problems; 6) application of specialized information technologies; 7) definition of requirements for independent electricity producers. In the article, the major aspects of liberalized electricity market, its functions and tasks are reviewed, with emphasis placed on the optimization of electrical network development as a significant component of sustainable management of power systems.

Long-term impacts of battery electric vehicles on the German electricity system

Science.gov (United States)

Heinrichs, H. U.; Jochem, P.

2016-05-01

The emerging market for electric vehicles gives rise to an additional electricity demand. This new electricity demand will affect the electricity system. For quantifying those impacts a model-based approach, which covers long-term time horizons is necessary in order to consider the long lasting investment paths in electricity systems and the market development of electric mobility. Therefore, we apply a bottom-up electricity system model showing a detailed spatial resolution for different development paths of electric mobility in Germany until 2030. This model is based on a linear optimization which minimizes the discounted costs of the electricity system. We observe an increase of electricity exchange between countries and electricity generated by renewable energy sources. One major result turns out to be that electric vehicles can be integrated in the electricity system without increasing the system costs when a controlled (postponing) charging strategy for electric vehicles is applied. The impact on the power plant portfolio is insignificant. Another important side effect of electric vehicles is their substantial contribution to decreasing CO2 emissions of the German transport sector. Hence, electric mobility might be an integral part of a sustainable energy system of tomorrow.

Wind Power Development and Energy Storage under China’s Electricity Market Reform—A Case Study of Fujian Province

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dunguo Mou

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper, based on the Fujian provincial 500 kV grid and part of the 220 kV grid and the key power plants, including hydro, coal, nuclear, gas, wind and pumping and storage hydro powers (PSHP connected to the grid, constructs an independent electricity market model. Using data that are very close to reality about coal fired power production costs, along with data about power plants’ technical constraints, this paper studies the effect of wind power on Fujian’s provincial electricity market. Firstly, the paper analyzes the relationship between wind speed and wind power output and the effects of short-term power output fluctuation on frequency modulation and voltage regulation. Secondly, under supposition of the production costs following quadratic functions, the paper analyzes the effects of changes in wind power output on the electricity supply costs under optimal power flow. Thirdly, using the bidding model in the Australian Electricity Market Operator for reference and supposing that, in a competitive market, coal fired power plants can bid 6 price bands according to their capacity, the paper analyzes effects of wind power on electricity prices under optimal power flow, the stabilizing effects of PSHP and the minimum PSHP capacity needed to stabilize the electricity market. Finally, using a daily load curve, this paper simulates the electricity prices’ fluctuation under optimal power flow and PSHP’s stabilizing effect. The results show that, although PSHP has a large external social welfare effect, it can hardly make a profit. In the end, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for Fujian province’s wind and nuclear power development, PSHP construction and electricity market development.

Long-term uncertainty evaluation of pool electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez Lopez, Juan; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy

2010-01-01

Pool electricity markets are cleared under the strong assumption of having a perfectly known future; in real life, this is anything but true. The inability to predict the random parameters of the supply and the demand function introduces risk into the market clearing process. Therefore, the main interest is to minimize such risk by means of a trade-off of the mean and the variance of the social cost function. This paper considers random variations on the levels and on the slopes of the quadratic supply and demand functions. Correlation is considered between the corresponding coefficients of the supply and demand curves. By means of the mean-variance Markowitz theory, the risk introduced by these random variations is analyzed. A comprehensive analysis on the effects that the mean-variance Markowitz theory has on the nodal spot prices and on the point-elasticities of the supply and demand curves is made. The non-linear optimization model presented in this paper is validated through a three-, a six-, and a 21-node system. (author)

Long-term uncertainty evaluation of pool electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alvarez Lopez, Juan [Network Analysis Department, Electric Research Institute (Mexico); Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy [Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave. West, N2L 3G1, Waterloo, Ontario (Canada)

2010-02-15

Pool electricity markets are cleared under the strong assumption of having a perfectly known future; in real life, this is anything but true. The inability to predict the random parameters of the supply and the demand function introduces risk into the market clearing process. Therefore, the main interest is to minimize such risk by means of a trade-off of the mean and the variance of the social cost function. This paper considers random variations on the levels and on the slopes of the quadratic supply and demand functions. Correlation is considered between the corresponding coefficients of the supply and demand curves. By means of the mean-variance Markowitz theory, the risk introduced by these random variations is analyzed. A comprehensive analysis on the effects that the mean-variance Markowitz theory has on the nodal spot prices and on the point-elasticities of the supply and demand curves is made. The non-linear optimization model presented in this paper is validated through a three-, a six-, and a 21-node system. (author)

Functioning of the wholesale electricity, CO2 and natural gas markets - 2013-2014 Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monteil, Anne; Casadei, Cecile

2014-11-01

from renewable energy sources continued to increase, exceeding fossil fuel energy generation during the first half of 2014 in France. Within this context, electricity prices continued to drop, leading to the 'cocooning' of a certain number of new combined cycle power plants. The LNG market remained highly competitive in a context of significant price differences between the different world markets. Asia and South America are the most profitable markets for LNG producers, to the detriment of the European market. This situation creates difficulties for the supply of regions that depend on LNG to function properly, in particular Spain and the south of France. Nevertheless, the first half of 2014 was marked by a closer alignment of prices between the different regions, due however more to conjunctural rather than structural factors. Lastly, the end of 2013 and the first half of 2014 saw the Ukrainian crisis and uncertainty regarding the supply of gas to Europe from Russia. Supply however remained relatively stable in the first half of 2014 and no country declared any potential risks concerning its short-term supply. However, the memory of the Russian crisis in January 2009 lingered and contributed to maintaining gas prices relatively high for winter 2014/2015 even while short-term prices dropped significantly. This CRE's seventh monitoring report contains information concerning the implementation of the REMIT regulation at European level, outlines the economic and geopolitical context of energy markets and gives a detailed presentation of the development of wholesale electricity and gas markets in France in 2013 and the first half of 2014

A plausible congestion management scheme for the internal electricity market of the European Union

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez-Arriaga, I.J.; Olmos, L.

2005-01-01

This paper proposes a scheme for the management of network congestion in the Internal Electricity Market (IEM) of the European Union. This scheme tries to combine the rigor in the treatment of the energy and transmission capacity transactions with the flexibility and pragmatism that are necessary to make the scheme compatible with the current diversity of regulatory approaches and market structures in the Member States participating in the IEM. First, a reference scheme is presented with a complete formulation that jointly deals with the energy and capacity markets. Because of the implementation difficulties of this conceptually ideal approach, a more pragmatic scheme is proposed instead. The core of this scheme is an explicit auction mechanism that must be run prior to any short-term (daily, typically) energy markets. In this auction, where only transmission capacity is traded, both bilateral contracts and energy bids to Power Exchanges can participate in order to acquire the capacity that is necessary to carry out their transactions. Some technical issues related to the practical implementation of the proposed approach are also examined; these include market liquidity, the financial or physical nature of the long-term contracts, the potential problems of 'slicing' transmission capacity and the allocation of congestion rents. Market power issues are ignored. (author)

A plausible congestion management scheme for the internal electricity market of the European Union

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perez-Arriaga, I.J.; Olmos, L. [Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid (Spain). Instituto de Investigacion Tecnologica

2005-06-01

This paper proposes a scheme for the management of network congestion in the Internal Electricity Market (IEM) of the European Union. This scheme tries to combine the rigor in the treatment of the energy and transmission capacity transactions with the flexibility and pragmatism that are necessary to make the scheme compatible with the current diversity of regulatory approaches and market structures in the Member States participating in the IEM. First, a reference scheme is presented with a complete formulation that jointly deals with the energy and capacity markets. Because of the implementation difficulties of this conceptually ideal approach, a more pragmatic scheme is proposed instead. The core of this scheme is an explicit auction mechanism that must be run prior to any short-term (daily, typically) energy markets. In this auction, where only transmission capacity is traded, both bilateral contracts and energy bids to Power Exchanges can participate in order to acquire the capacity that is necessary to carry out their transactions. Some technical issues related to the practical implementation of the proposed approach are also examined; these include market liquidity, the financial or physical nature of the long-term contracts, the potential problems of 'slicing' transmission capacity and the allocation of congestion rents. Market power issues are ignored. (author)

Analysis of recurrent neural networks for short-term energy load forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Di Persio, Luca; Honchar, Oleksandr

2017-11-01

Short-term forecasts have recently gained an increasing attention because of the rise of competitive electricity markets. In fact, short-terms forecast of possible future loads turn out to be fundamental to build efficient energy management strategies as well as to avoid energy wastage. Such type of challenges are difficult to tackle both from a theoretical and applied point of view. Latter tasks require sophisticated methods to manage multidimensional time series related to stochastic phenomena which are often highly interconnected. In the present work we first review novel approaches to energy load forecasting based on recurrent neural network, focusing our attention on long/short term memory architectures (LSTMs). Such type of artificial neural networks have been widely applied to problems dealing with sequential data such it happens, e.g., in socio-economics settings, for text recognition purposes, concerning video signals, etc., always showing their effectiveness to model complex temporal data. Moreover, we consider different novel variations of basic LSTMs, such as sequence-to-sequence approach and bidirectional LSTMs, aiming at providing effective models for energy load data. Last but not least, we test all the described algorithms on real energy load data showing not only that deep recurrent networks can be successfully applied to energy load forecasting, but also that this approach can be extended to other problems based on time series prediction.

The future market in electricity in the Czech Republic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vacik, J.

1998-01-01

The Czech Republic has signed the Association Agreement with the European Union in early nineties and it has been the Republic's goal to accede to full membership in the European Union. In the power sector, the Directive 96/92/EC is, in this respect, the most important document. The Czech Energy Law was become effective from 1995 in a compromise form which proved to stay well short of perfection. Unfortunately, a number of articles and provisions fail to be consistent with the relevant EU documents, and even far less so with Directive 96/92/EC. The draft Energy Policy of the Czech Republic as presented officially in May 1997, has already definitely stressed some basic features of the future market in electricity. Regrettably, also in the draft Energy Policy some pressing long-term problems fail to be recognized or addressed and also areas failing to conform with the European power industry laws can be found in it. For the Czech Republic, it will be useful to utilize the experience of mainly the smaller EU countries and to proceed in pursuance of the findings of a thorough analysis and in a stepwise manner. In the first phase, it will be enough to make those moves which are common for all the conceivable solutions. Directive 96/92/EC does not prescribe a change in the structure of the existing electric power sector and far less any change in the ownership relation. In the same token, Directive 96/92/EC does not charge the member states with any duty to launch a wholesale market in electricity (pool of exchange). That is reserved under the discretion of the member states. Nowhere throughout the Directive is encountered any requirement to reduce the market strength of the dominant entities, if such exist

Interconnections and market integration in the Irish Single Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nepal, Rabindra; Jamasb, Tooraj

2012-01-01

Interconnections can be an effective way to increase competition and improve market integration in concentrated wholesale electricity markets with limited number of participants. This paper examines the potential for interconnections and increasing market integration in the Irish Single Electricity Market (SEM). We use a time-varying Kalman filter technique to assess the degree of market integration between SEM and other large, mature and interconnected wholesale electricity markets in Europe including Great Britain (GB). The results indicate no market integration between SEM and other European markets except for Elspot and GB. We show that the current state of market integration between SEM and GB is just 17% indicating potential to improve market integration via increased interconnector capacity. The results indicate that liquidity of wholesale markets might be a crucial factor in the market integration process while our results remain inconclusive in determining whether increased trade of renewables can improve market integration. - Highlights: ► We assess the degree of market integration between SEM and other EU electricity markets. ► Our results indicate no market integration between SEM and other European markets except for Elspot and GB. ► We show that the current state of market integration between SEM and GB is just 17%.

Power sector development in a common Baltic electricity market. Executive summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-05-01

In the years to come the Baltic electricity sector is expected to go through major changes. up till recently the sector has been characterised by vertically integrated monopolies, but at present the electricity sectors in the Baltic States are undergoing reform processes to meet the requirements of the EU directives regarding liberalisation of electricity sectors. This implies a different organisation of the sector, with new roles and responsibilities, and focus on new issues such as a well-functioning electricity market, security of supply and market power. In this project long-term scenario analyses are used to clarify the challenges facing the future Baltic electricity market and to analyse the robustness of the power sector. The project examines how existing power plants will manage in a competitive market, how power prices will develop and which investments are likely to be preferred by investors, among other issues. (BA)

Electricity and gas market observatory. 1. quarter 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 1. 2007 quarter; The gas market; The retail gas market: The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary

Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. quarter 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 4. 2006 quarter; The gas market; The retail gas market: The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary

Electricity and gas market observatory. 1. quarter 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 1. 2007 quarter; The gas market; The retail gas market: The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary.

Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. quarter 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 4. 2006 quarter; The gas market; The retail gas market: The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary.

Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity. New evidence from Sri Lanka

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Athukorala, P.P.A Wasantha; Wilson, Clevo

2010-01-01

This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 0.32, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity of 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and (4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages in the country. (author)

Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity. New evidence from Sri Lanka

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Athukorala, P.P.A Wasantha; Wilson, Clevo [School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane (Australia)

2010-09-15

This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 0.32, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity of 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and (4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages in the country. (author)

Market research for electric utilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shippee, G.

1999-01-01

Marketing research is increasing in importance as utilities become more marketing oriented. Marketing research managers need to maintain autonomy from the marketing director or ad agency and make sure their work is relevant to the utility's operation. This article will outline a model marketing research program for an electric utility. While a utility may not conduct each and every type of research described, the programs presented offer a smorgasbord of activities which successful electric utility marketers often use or have access to

On the battleground of environmental and competition policy: The renewable electricity market

Science.gov (United States)

Meszaros, Matyas Tamas

Renewable energy sources have become increasingly important in the efforts to provide energy security and to fight global warming. In the last decade environmental policy has increased the support for renewable electricity. At the same time the electricity sector was often subject of antitrust investigation because of relevant market concentration, and market power. This dissertation looks at the renewable electricity market to analyze the effect of environmental policy on competition. The first chapter provides a short introduction into the regulatory schemes of electricity markets. The second chapter analyzes the demand side of the electricity market. The estimations show that there was no significant change in the income and price elasticity in the electricity consumption of the US households between 1993 an 2001, although there was several policy initiatives to increase energy efficiency and decrease consumption. The third chapter derives a theoretical model where the feed-in tariff and the tradable green certificate system can be analyzed under oligopolistic market structure. The results of the model suggest that the introduction of the environmentally friendly regulatory schemes can decrease the electricity prices compared to the case when there is no support for renewable energy. The other findings of this model is that the price of electricity rises when the requirement for renewable energy increases. In the fourth chapter a simulation model of the UK electricity market is used to test the effect of mergers and acquisitions under the environmental support scheme. The results emphasize the importance of the capacity limit, because it can constrain the strategic action of the electricity producers. The results of the simulation also suggest that the increasing concentration can increase the production and lower the price of electricity and renewable energy certificates in the British Renewable Obligation system.

Market potential for non-electric applications of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

The objective of this report is to assess the market potential for the non-electric applications of nuclear energy in the near (before 2020) and long (2020-2050) terms. The main non-electric applications are defined here as district heating, desalination (of sea, brackish and waste water), industrial heat supply, ship propulsion and the energy supply for spacecraft. This report is principally devoted to these applications, although a less detailed assessment of some innovative applications (e.g. hydrogen production and coal gasification) is also provided. While the technical details of these applications are covered briefly, emphasis is placed on the economic and other factors that may promote or hinder the penetration of the nuclear option into the market for non-electric energy services. The report is intentionally targeted towards expected demands. It is for this reason that its sections are structured by demand categories and not according to possible reactor types. At the same time, the orientation on the demand side can result in overlaps at the supply side, because the same nuclear reactor can often serve more than one type of demand. Such cases are noted as appropriate. Each section characterizes a specific non-electric application in terms of its market size, its prospects for nuclear technologies and the economic competitiveness of the technologies

Short term load forecasting of anomalous load using hybrid soft computing methods

Science.gov (United States)

Rasyid, S. A.; Abdullah, A. G.; Mulyadi, Y.

2016-04-01

Load forecast accuracy will have an impact on the generation cost is more economical. The use of electrical energy by consumers on holiday, show the tendency of the load patterns are not identical, it is different from the pattern of the load on a normal day. It is then defined as a anomalous load. In this paper, the method of hybrid ANN-Particle Swarm proposed to improve the accuracy of anomalous load forecasting that often occur on holidays. The proposed methodology has been used to forecast the half-hourly electricity demand for power systems in the Indonesia National Electricity Market in West Java region. Experiments were conducted by testing various of learning rate and learning data input. Performance of this methodology will be validated with real data from the national of electricity company. The result of observations show that the proposed formula is very effective to short-term load forecasting in the case of anomalous load. Hybrid ANN-Swarm Particle relatively simple and easy as a analysis tool by engineers.

Short-term data forecasting based on wavelet transformation and chaos theory

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yi; Li, Cunbin; Zhang, Liang

2017-09-01

A sketch of wavelet transformation and its application was given. Concerning the characteristics of time sequence, Haar wavelet was used to do data reduction. After processing, the effect of “data nail” on forecasting was reduced. Chaos theory was also introduced, a new chaos time series forecasting flow based on wavelet transformation was proposed. The largest Lyapunov exponent was larger than zero from small data sets, it verified the data change behavior still met chaotic behavior. Based on this, chaos time series to forecast short-term change behavior could be used. At last, the example analysis of the price from a real electricity market showed that the forecasting method increased the precision of the forecasting more effectively and steadily.

Heuristic procedures for transmission planning in competitive electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, Wene; Bompard, Ettore; Napoli, Roberto; Jiang, Xiuchen

2007-01-01

The network structure of the power system, in an electricity market under the pool model, may have severe impacts on market performance, reducing market efficiency considerably, especially when producers bid strategically. In this context network re-enforcement plays a major role and proper strategies of transmission planning need to be devised. This paper presents, for pool-model electricity markets, two heuristic procedures to select the most effective subset of lines that would reduce the impacts on the market, from a set of predefined candidate lines and within the allowed budget for network expansion. A set of indices that account for the economic impacts of the re-enforcing of the candidate lines, both in terms of construction cost and market efficiency, are proposed and used as sensitivity indices in the heuristic procedure. The proposed methods are applied and compared with reference to an 18-bus test system. (author)

A game theory simulator for assessing the performances of competitive electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bompard, Ettore; Carpaneto, Enrico; Ciwei, Gao; Napoli, Roberto; Benini, Michele; Gallanti, Massimo; Migliavacca, Gianluigi

2008-01-01

In the last years, electricity markets were created all over the world following different basis concepts. Market structure, market rules, demand levels, market concentration and energy sources to produce electricity have a strong influence on market performances. Modifications on these aspects may significantly affect market outcomes. Sensitivity analyses need proper simulation tools. In this paper a medium run electricity market simulator (MREMS) based on game theory is presented. This simulator incorporates two different games, one for the unit commitment of thermal units and one for strategic bidding and hourly market clearing. Either a Forchheimer (one leader) or Bertrand (all player are leaders) or even intermediate model with a whatever number of leaders can be selected, in dependence on the strategic behavior of the producers, allowing for the simulation of markets with different levels of concentration. The simulator was applied to analyse producers' behavior during the first operative year of the Italian power exchange. A comparison between simulation and true market results was carried out in order to test the simulator and validate its simplifying hypotheses. MREMS, yet capable to be used stand-alone, was conceived as the heart of a long-term market simulator (LREMS) allowing to simulate the long-run evolution of the generation park (investments in new plants, refurbishment and dismission of older ones). LREMS is a hierarchic simulator: a long-term ''outer'' game takes yearly investment decisions based on mid-term price projections provided by MREMS. Although this paper is mainly devoted to describe MREMS, one specific section will provide an overview of the ''outer'' game implemented by LREMS. (author)

Long-term price and environmental effects in a liberalised electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lise, Wietze; Kruseman, Gideon

2008-01-01

This paper studies the effects of endogenous investment decisions in a liberalised electricity market on prices and the environment in the time horizon 2000-2050. Therefore, a computational, game-theoretic, recursive dynamic model is developed. Simulations with the model indicate that perfect competition leads to lower prices and benefits the environment in the form of lower acid and smog emissions. Continued exercise of market power leads to postponed investments and more diversity in the technology portfolio, while under perfect competition there is an earlier switch to gas-based technologies. (author)

Short-term economics of virtual power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kok, J.K.

2009-08-01

The Virtual Power Plant (VPP) has gained an increasing interest over the last few years. A VPP is a flexible representation of a portfolio of Distributed Energy Resources (DER: distributed generation, demand response and electricity storage). One of the key activities of a VPP is the delivery of (near-)real-time balancing services. In order to operate such a (near-)real-time coordination activity optimally, the VPP needs to maintain a dynamic merit-order list of all DER participating in the VPP. In order to make optimal decisions based on this list, the merit order needs to be based on the true marginal cost (or marginal benefit in case of demand response) of the individual DER units. The marginal electricity costs of most types of DER are highly dependent on local context and, hence, change over time. From analysis of the short-term bid strategies of various DER units, the existence of a bid strategy spectrum becomes clear. On one end of the spectrum, bidding strategies are based straightforwardly on true marginal cost or benefit. Further along the spectrum, optimal bidding strategies become less dependent on marginal cost levels and more on the price dynamics in the (VPP) market context. These results are relevant for VPP operations both from business and technical perspectives.

Market research for electric utilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shippee, G.

1999-12-01

Marketing research is increasing in importance as utilities become more marketing oriented. Marketing research managers need to maintain autonomy from the marketing director or ad agency and make sure their work is relevant to the utility's operation. This article will outline a model marketing research program for an electric utility. While a utility may not conduct each and every type of research described, the programs presented offer a smorgasbord of activities which successful electric utility marketers often use or have access to.

Can rural electric cooperatives survive in a restructured US electric market? An empirical analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greer, Monica Lynne

2003-01-01

This paper examines the ability of rural electric distribution cooperatives to continue operating in their present form in a restructured electricity market. More specifically, I develop and estimate a quadratic cost model, which, unlike many of the cost functions employed in studies of this nature, conforms to all of the properties of a proper cost function. Using 1996 data, I find that these firms are not operating in a cost-minimizing fashion. This finding seems to occur because each is too small in terms of the quantity of electricity distributed. As a result, mergers between these firms could yield substantial savings and help ensure their survival in their present form in a deregulated market

Optimal Sizing and Sitting of Smart Microgrid Units under Pool Electricity Market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hakimi, Seyed Mehdi; Hajizadeh, Amin

2017-01-01

, reliability cost, power loss cost and selling and buying electricity cost. The new idea of this paper is the investigation of pool electricity market aspects in optimization of smart microgrid. On the other hand, cost minimization of smart microgrid is related to their bidding strategies. Therefore two...... different optimization tools are considered. First, a game-theoretical (GT) model has been used for bidding strategy of smart microgrid as a price-maker, in a long-term electricity market. Secondly, a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to obtain the best cost value of smart microgrids...... construction. This study was performed for the Ekbatan residential complex in Tehran, Iran. It has three smart microgrids consist of renewable energy resources. They participate in a long-term electricity market as a price maker. The results show that the proposed method is more effective and has lower cost...

Panorama 2016 - Short-term trends in the gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lecarpentier, Armelle

2015-12-01

In an environment marked by slowing economic growth in emerging markets and developing countries, trends in gas market fundamentals varied widely across the regions during 2015. Structural economic factors stifled growth in natural gas demand, which was unable to take up all the excess supply, leading to imbalance in the global gas market and price weakness which is expected to continue in the short and medium-term. (author)

Electricity and gas market observatory. 2. Quarter 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1 of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status at June 30, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 2. Quarter 2008); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on June 30, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 2. Quarter 2008); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

The benefits of integrating European electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Newbery, David; Strbac, Goran; Viehoff, Ivan

2016-01-01

The European Commission's Target Electricity Model (TEM) aims to integrate EU electricity markets. This paper estimates the potential benefit of coupling interconnectors to increase the efficiency of trading day-ahead, intra-day and balancing services across borders. Further gains are possible by eliminating unscheduled flows and avoiding the curtailment of renewables with better market design. In the short run the gains could be as high as €3.9 billion/yr, more than 100% of the current gains from trade. About one-quarter of this total comes from day-ahead coupling and another third from shared balancing. If shared balancing is so valuable, completing the TEM becomes more urgent, and regulators should ensure these gains are paid to interconnectors to make the needed investment in the cross-border links more commercially profitable. - Highlights: •The benefits from day-ahead market coupling are €1 bn/yr. •Intra-day and balancing benefits add a further €1.3 bn/yr. •Total benefits including removing unscheduled flows could be €3.4 bn/yr. •Sharing balancing and reserves is high priority. •Rewarding interconnectors for all services reduces barriers to expansion.

The liberalisation of the continental European electricity market : lessons learned

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haas, R.; Auer, H.; Keseric, N.; Glachant, J.M.; Perez, Y.

2006-01-01

Before 1990, nearly all electricity supply companies in continental Europe (CE) were vertically integrated in a franchise market, either state-owned or under price-regulated mixed private-public ownership. In 1996, the European Commission (EC) issued a directive for a common electricity market, which launched the liberalisation of the electricity market in continental Europe (CE). The ultimate objective was to lower electricity prices throughout Europe by promoting competition in generation and supply through price deregulation and privatization. The intention of the EC was to create one common European electricity market. This paper analyzed the evolution of this market along with conditions needed to enhance competition in the long term. It also presented background information with major data on electricity supply and demand in the CE markets and outlined EC and national governments' market liberalisation initiatives and the major changes that countries have made. Currently, there are at least 7 distinct sub-markets separated by partly insufficient transmission capacity and differences in access conditions to the grid. In 2004, the total demand in the CE area was 2300 TWh. This paper also summarized generation capacity and load in CE; imports and exports between CE countries; past and current transmission issues; political issues for restructuring; providing non-discriminatory access to the market and to the grid; the new institutional and regulatory environment and the promotion of renewables. The performance of the market was also reviewed with particular reference to market access, mergers, acquisitions, market concentration, and the evolution of both wholesale and retail electricity prices. It was concluded that in order to bring about effective competition in the long run, the following conditions would be required: complete ownership separation of the transmission grid from generation and supply in all countries and sub-markets; adequate capacity margin in

The liberalisation of the continental European electricity market : lessons learned

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haas, R.; Auer, H.; Keseric, N. [Vienna Univ. of Technology, Vienna (Austria). Energy Economics Group; Glachant, J.M.; Perez, Y. [Paris-Sud Univ., Paris (France). ADIS-Group Reseaux Jean-Monnet

2006-10-01

Before 1990, nearly all electricity supply companies in continental Europe (CE) were vertically integrated in a franchise market, either state-owned or under price-regulated mixed private-public ownership. In 1996, the European Commission (EC) issued a directive for a common electricity market, which launched the liberalisation of the electricity market in continental Europe (CE). The ultimate objective was to lower electricity prices throughout Europe by promoting competition in generation and supply through price deregulation and privatization. The intention of the EC was to create one common European electricity market. This paper analyzed the evolution of this market along with conditions needed to enhance competition in the long term. It also presented background information with major data on electricity supply and demand in the CE markets and outlined EC and national governments' market liberalisation initiatives and the major changes that countries have made. Currently, there are at least 7 distinct sub-markets separated by partly insufficient transmission capacity and differences in access conditions to the grid. In 2004, the total demand in the CE area was 2300 TWh. This paper also summarized generation capacity and load in CE; imports and exports between CE countries; past and current transmission issues; political issues for restructuring; providing non-discriminatory access to the market and to the grid; the new institutional and regulatory environment and the promotion of renewables. The performance of the market was also reviewed with particular reference to market access, mergers, acquisitions, market concentration, and the evolution of both wholesale and retail electricity prices. It was concluded that in order to bring about effective competition in the long run, the following conditions would be required: complete ownership separation of the transmission grid from generation and supply in all countries and sub-markets; adequate capacity

Electricity and gas market observatory. 1. Quarter 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). It completes the information already published by CRE: - practical information for eligible customers: consumer guide, list of suppliers, - communications regarding markets running; CRE's annual activity report. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2007); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 1. 2007 quarter); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1, 2007); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. Quarter 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). It completes the information already published by CRE: - practical information for eligible customers: consumer guide, list of suppliers, - communications regarding markets running; CRE's annual activity report. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2006); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 4. 2006 quarter); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1, 2007); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

Forecasting prices and price volatility in the Nordic electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

We develop a stochastic model for long term price forecasting in a competitive electricity market environment. It is demonstrated both theoretically and through model simulations that non-stochastic models may give biased forecasts both with respect to price level and volatility. In the paper, the model concept is applied on the restructured Nordic electricity market. It is specially in peak load hours that a stochastic model formulation provides significantly different results than an expected value model. (author)

Analysis of electricity price in Danish competitive electricity market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2012-01-01

electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. 10 year actual data from the Danish competitive electricity market are collected and analyzed. The relationship among the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price), the consumption and the wind power generation...... in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price and the regulation price generally decrease when the wind power penetration in the power system increases or the consumption of the power system decreases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price and the regulation price for different...... consumption periods and wind power penetration are analyzed. Simulation results show that the findings of this paper are useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal bidding strategy so that the imbalance cost of trading wind power on the electricity market could be reduced....

Short-term hydropower production planning by stochastic programming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fleten, Stein-Erik; Kristoffersen, Trine

2008-01-01

-term production planning a matter of spatial distribution among the reservoirs of the plant. Day-ahead market prices and reservoir inflows are, however, uncertain beyond the current operation day and water must be allocated among the reservoirs in order to strike a balance between current profits and expected......Within the framework of multi-stage mixed-integer linear stochastic programming we develop a short-term production plan for a price-taking hydropower plant operating under uncertainty. Current production must comply with the day-ahead commitments of the previous day which makes short...

Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. Quarter 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1 of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on December 31, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2008); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on December 31, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2008); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Concentration of the French gas market); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

The North American electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvie, I.

1999-01-01

The wide ranging changes that will drive the evolution of the North American electricity industry in the future are discussed. Deregulation and the advent of competition in both the United States and Canada are the principal forces that will change the shape of the electricity market, bringing new players and new forms of doing business into the marketplace. A review of the current state of the business shows that especially in the United States where deregulation began earlier than in Canada, independent generators already constitute a multi-billion dollar industry. Non-utility generation capacity is about seven per cent of total U.S. capacity and accounts for about 10 per cent of total U. S. electricity supply, including imports. Examples from other industries clearly show that restructuring and the breakup of vertically integrated industries could be accomplished much faster than anticipated, that a decrease in prices followed rapidly as products became more like commodities, and that decreasing prices fostered product differentiation and competition. Major legislation affecting the electric power industry in the U.S. and Canada (U.S. National Energy Policy Act 1992, Alberta Electric Utilities Act 1995, Ontario Energy Competition Act 1998) decreeing open access transmission, unbundling of generation, transmission and ancillary services, and promoting competition, and the impacts of these legislative actions are also reviewed. The most visible impact is the explosion that can be seen in power marketing and energy trading on a scale unimaginable only a few short years ago, where the total volume of trade may be worth multiples of the value of the underlying commodity. At the same time, there is concern about the reliability of the system, and thus making it imperative to find new ways to manage reliability. Various suggestions are made as to how increased reliability of supply could be achieved by better management, new standards and better enforcement of

Risk management and market efficiency on the Midwest Independent System Operator electricity exchange

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Kevin

Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, Inc. (MISO) is a non-profit regional transmission organization (RTO) that oversees electricity production and transmission across thirteen states and one Canadian province. MISO also operates an electronic exchange for buying and selling electricity for each of its five regional hubs. MISO oversees two types of markets. The forward market, which is referred to as the day-ahead (DA) market, allows market participants to place demand bids and supply offers on electricity to be delivered at a specified hour the following day. The equilibrium price, known as the locational marginal price (LMP), is determined by MISO after receiving sale offers and purchase bids from market participants. MISO also coordinates a spot market, which is known as the real-time (RT) market. Traders in the real-time market must submit bids and offers by thirty minutes prior to the hour for which the trade will be executed. After receiving purchase and sale offers for a given hour in the real time market, MISO then determines the LMP for that particular hour. The existence of the DA and RT markets allows producers and retailers to hedge against the large fluctuations that are common in electricity prices. Hedge ratios on the MISO exchange are estimated using various techniques. No hedge ratio technique examined consistently outperforms the unhedged portfolio in terms of variance reduction. Consequently, none of the hedge ratio methods in this study meet the general interpretation of FASB guidelines for a highly effective hedge. One of the major goals of deregulation is to bring about competition and increased efficiency in electricity markets. Previous research suggests that electricity exchanges may not be weak-form market efficient. A simple moving average trading rule is found to produce statistically and economically significant profits on the MISO exchange. This could call the long-term survivability of the MISO exchange into question.

Electricity market opening and electricity generation system's expansion in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kosnjek, Z.; Vidmar, M.; Bregar, Z.

2000-01-01

Slovenia is rapidly adopting the European Union (EU) legislation to make itself ready to be admitted the fifteen EU member countries. In the area of energy or electricity supply industry, Slovenia has consequently enforced the Energy law, which in its essence follows the idea of the Directive 96/92/EC. Globally, the Directive defines common rules of the internal electricity market within EU. Any EU member country is responsible for assuring a competitive electricity market and implementing corresponding instruments as foreseen by the Directive. The share of the national market opening is calculated on the basis of eligible customers' consumption versus the overall consumption in a particular member country. Also, the Directive defines the rate of the electricity market opening. It is interesting to note that the EU member countries have been opening their national electricity markets at a greater speed than specified by the Directive. The overall Slovenian Electricity Supply Industry shall have to adapt itself to new imperatives, whereby the greatest changes will by all means take place in the area of electricity generation. As the reaction of eligible domestic market customers is quite unpredictable, the direct electricity import from foreign countries can only be estimated on a variant basis. EU countries that have deregulated their electricity market have been, step by step, gaining valuable experiences. The majority of them show a considerable pressure on having prices of the EPS generation sector reduced. A similar development can by all means be expected in Slovenia, too. it is expected that the major burden of the electricity market liberalisation and electric power interconnecting within EU will be carried by the EPS generation sector. The analyses of developed variants show that the burden, imposed by the transition onto the market economy, will be predominantly carried by the coal fired electricity supply industry. Further development of electricity

Stochastic optimal generation bid to electricity markets with emissions risk constraints.

Science.gov (United States)

Heredia, F-Javier; Cifuentes-Rubiano, Julián; Corchero, Cristina

2018-02-01

There are many factors that influence the day-ahead market bidding strategies of a generation company (GenCo) within the framework of the current energy market. Environmental policy issues are giving rise to emission limitation that are becoming more and more important for fossil-fueled power plants, and these must be considered in their management. This work investigates the influence of the emissions reduction plan and the incorporation of the medium-term derivative commitments in the optimal generation bidding strategy for the day-ahead electricity market. Two different technologies have been considered: the high-emission technology of thermal coal units and the low-emission technology of combined cycle gas turbine units. The Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL) and the Spanish National Emissions Reduction Plan (NERP) defines the environmental framework for dealing with the day-ahead market bidding strategies. To address emission limitations, we have extended some of the standard risk management methodologies developed for financial markets, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), thus leading to the new concept of Conditional Emission at Risk (CEaR). This study offers electricity generation utilities a mathematical model for determining the unit's optimal generation bid to the wholesale electricity market such that it maximizes the long-term profits of the utility while allowing it to abide by the Iberian Electricity Market rules as well as the environmental restrictions set by the Spanish National Emissions Reduction Plan. We analyze the economic implications for a GenCo that includes the environmental restrictions of this National Plan as well as the NERP's effects on the expected profits and the optimal generation bid. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electricity and gas market observatory. 3. Quarter 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1 of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. The present observatory is including residential customer's statistics. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status at September 30, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 3. Quarter 2007); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on September 30, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 3. Quarter 2007); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

Grid Integration of Electric Vehicles in Open Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

congestion management scenario within electric distribution networks •optimal EV charging management with the fleet operator concept and smart charging management •EV battery technology, modelling and tests •the use of EVs for balancing power fluctuations from renewable energy sources, looking at power......Presenting the policy drivers, benefits and challenges for grid integration of electric vehicles (EVs) in the open electricity market environment, this book provides a comprehensive overview of existing electricity markets and demonstrates how EVs are integrated into these different markets...... of the technologies for EV integration, this volume is informative for research professors and graduate students in power systems; it will also appeal to EV manufacturers, regulators, EV market professionals, energy providers and traders, mobility providers, EV charging station companies, and policy makers....

Electricity market players subgroup report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borison, A.

1990-03-01

The purpose of this study is to examine competition in the electric power industry from an ''industrial organization'' point of view. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. Chapter 2 describes the ''industrial organization'' approach used to analyze the electric power market. Industrial organization emphasizes specific market performance criteria, and the impact of market structure and behavior on performance. Chapter 3 identifies the participants in the electric power market, grouped primarily into regulated producers, unregulated producers, and consumers. Chapter 4 describes the varieties of electric power competition, organized along two dimensions: producer competition and consumer competition. Chapters 5 and 6 identify the issues raised by competition along the two dimensions. These issues include efficiency, equity, quality, and stability. Chapters 7 through 9 describe market structure, behavior and performance in three competitive scenarios: minimum competition, maximum competition, and moderate competition. Market structure, behavior and performance are discussed, and the issues raised in Chapters 5 and 6 are discussed in detail. Chapter 10 provides conclusions about ''winners and losers'' and identifies issues that require further study

Electricity and gas market observatory. 2. quarter 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 2. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the second quarter 2007; The gas market; The retail gas market: The non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary

Electricity and gas market observatory. 2. quarter 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 2. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the second quarter 2007; The gas market; The retail gas market: The non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary.

The power to choose. Demand response in liberalized electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

Highly volatile electricity prices are becoming a more frequent and unwanted characteristic of modern electricity wholesale markets. But low demand elasticity, mainly the result of a lack of incentives and consumers' inability to control demand, means that consumer behaviour is not reflected in the cost of energy. This study analyses the impact of price-responsive demand and shows how pricing, policy and technology can be used to inform consumer behaviour and choice. Informed choice and market-based valuation of electricity supply will ensure liberalized markets are competitive, efficient, less volatile and able to provide long term security of supply. Significant benefits will occur even if only 5% of customers become responsive to price-incentives and information. And customers will respond to well designed programs, thereby developing a role in ensuring efficient price formulation for electricity. This study analyses the economic, efficiency and security benefits and identifies the changes in electricity tariffs and the network infrastructure needed to achieve greater demand response

Electricity and gas market observatory. 1. Quarter 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1. of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status at March 31, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2008); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on March 31, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2008); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France, Striking fact of the first quarter 2008); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. Quarter 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1. of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status at December 31, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2007); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking fact of the fourth quarter 2007); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on December 31. 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2007); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France, Striking fact of the fourth quarter 2007); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

Electricity and gas market observatory 1. Quarter 2009

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1. of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on March 31, 2009, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2009), The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market). B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on March 31. 2009, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2009), The wholesale gas market (Main steps in the French Wholesale gas market, Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Concentration of the French gas market) C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

Design choices for electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Vries, Laurens

2007-07-01

Ten years after the first European Electricity Directive, the goal of creating a single European electricity market has not been reached, despite concerted efforts by the EU and certain member states to continue with the reforms. The policy of subsidiarity for many aspects of market design has as a consequence that member countries are implementing a variety of different market designs and are implementing the reforms at varying speeds. The Florence regulatory process, which was intended to provide a bottom-up approach for coordination and harmonization, has effectively stalled and been replaced by a series of 'mini fora' in which smaller groups of countries work on integrating their markets. At the same time, the European electricity supply industry is facing some significant challenges. This paper investigates the different choices that can be made in the design of electricity markets, how they relate to each other and how they relate to the policy goals. (auth)

The effect of counter-trading on competition in electricity markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dijk, J.J.; Willems, B.

2011-01-01

In a competitive electricity market, nodal pricing is the most efficient way to manage congestion. Counter-trading is inefficient as it gives the wrong long term signals for entry and exit of power plants. However, in a non-competitive market, additional entry will improve the competitiveness of the

Evaluation of the price volatility of short-term in Brazil and its relation with the thermal generation; Avaliacao da volatilidade do preco de curto prazo no Brasil e sua relacao com a geracao termica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heideier, R.B.; Prado, F.A.A.; Saidel, M.A.; Ueocka, M.Z. [Universidade de Sao Paulo (EPUSP), SP (Brazil). Escola Politecnica. Dept. de Energia e Automacao Eletricas], E-mails: fernando@sinerconsult.com.br, saidel@pea.usp.br, marcos.ueocka@poli.usp.br

2009-07-01

This article evaluate the intensity of volatility of the electric power prices in the short term market in selected countries. It were analyzed historical series of monthly prices of major energy markets worldwide, with assessment of the energy matrix of each region. The study, by analysis of data entry program for optimizing the operation of the SIN (NEWAVE and DECOM), concludes that the price volatility in short-term in Brazil is marked by the large variation of thermal power available, especially the lack of natural gas.

The consumer dimension in new market mechanisms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ranchere, Anne-Soizic; Chamoy, Anne-Sophie; Scholtes, Emilie

2014-01-01

In a context of growing share of renewable energy sources and reduced electricity consumption, both long term and short term security of supply are under pressure. Gas fired power plants are facing reduced income from the energy market calling into question both the electricity market design and the electricity generation mix Integration of smart consumers (demand response) in the electricity System is a key element to address both questions. Due to market and System complexity, new market participants such as aggregators are contributing to building up and operating flexibility from consumers. Since 2009, Energy Pool has been actively contributing to the opening of new market mechanisms to value demand response. Energy Pool has developed services to support consumers in optimizing their flexibility. While today demand response value lies mainly in the balancing and reserve markets operated by the French transport System operator (RTE), new opportunities will emerge with the capacity market and the possibility to take advantage of the price signal by both increasing and reducing consumption. (authors)

The European electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-01-01

The creation of a single European market also will have its effects on the power and electricity sector. Expectations tied to this abandonment of borders on the electricity market are different: some hope for a reduction of energy costs, others fear safeguarded supplies to be at risk. It cannot be fully judged at present what the situation will be on a strongly integrated, European power and electricity market, and the brochure in hand is intended to present a first survey of the situation from the perspective of the power industry and energy policy, concentrating on main aspects. The survey is compiled in the form of reprints of journal articles written on this topic by a number of well-known German experts in the field. (orig./HP) [de

Capacity Market Design: Motivation and Challenges in Alberta’s Electricity Market

OpenAIRE

David Brown

2018-01-01

Alberta’s electricity market is currently undergoing a period of substantial transition. The province should proceed with caution as it switches from an energy-only electricity market to a capacity market by 2021. Many other jurisdictions have already made the changeover and Alberta can learn from their experiences in order to avoid common mistakes and pitfalls that can arise with the deployment of a capacity market.There were growing concerns that the existing electricity market structure wo...

75 FR 38516 - Order on Intent To Revoke Market-Based Rate Authority

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-02

..., Electric Quarterly Reports, Strategic Energy Management Corp., Solaro Energy Marketing Corporation. 1... (including market-based power sales, cost-based power sales, and transmission service) and providing transaction information (including rates) for short-term and long-term power sales during the most recent...

Management of uncertainties related to renewable generation participation in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourry, Franck

2009-01-01

The operation of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) units, such as wind or solar plants, is intrinsically dependent on the variability of the wind or solar resource. This makes large scale integration of RES into power systems particularly challenging. The research work in the frame of this thesis focuses on the participation of renewable power producers in liberalized electricity markets, and more precisely on the management of the regulation costs incurred by the producer for any imbalance between the contracted and delivered energy. In such context, the main objective of the thesis is to model and evaluate different methods for the management of imbalance penalties related to the participation of renewable power producers in short-term electricity markets. First, the thesis gives a classification of the existing solutions for the management of these imbalance penalties. A distinction is made between physical solutions which are related to the generation portfolio, and financial solutions which are based on market products. The physical solutions are considered in the frame of a Virtual Power Plant. A generic model of the imbalance penalty resulting from the use of physical or financial solutions is formulated, based on a market rule model. Then, the decision-making problem relative to both physical and financial solutions is formulated as an optimization problem under uncertainty. The approach is based on a loss function derived from the generic imbalance penalty model. Finally, the uncertainty related to the RES production is considered in the risk-based decision making process. The methods are illustrated using case studies based on real world data. (author)

Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2008

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-15

Why have oil prices hit US$140 per barrel? How strong will oil demand be in the upcoming years? Will supply of crude oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels be sufficient to meet this future demand? And, no less crucially, what investments in refining capacity and technology can we expect and will these help ease some of the imbalance in strained oil product markets? The Medium-Term Oil Market Report (now in its third year) published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a new benchmark, complementing the short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. This year's edition reappraises all upstream and downstream projects worldwide, setting them against a revised demand forecast and expanding the time horizon to 2013. Special features this year include in-depth analyses of price formation, transport trends, non-OECD economies, non-OPEC production decline, project slippage, key crude export pipeline developments and a stronger emphasis on product supply bottlenecks. An essential report for all policy makers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2008

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-15

Why have oil prices hit US$140 per barrel? How strong will oil demand be in the upcoming years? Will supply of crude oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels be sufficient to meet this future demand? And, no less crucially, what investments in refining capacity and technology can we expect and will these help ease some of the imbalance in strained oil product markets? The Medium-Term Oil Market Report (now in its third year) published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a new benchmark, complementing the short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. This year's edition reappraises all upstream and downstream projects worldwide, setting them against a revised demand forecast and expanding the time horizon to 2013. Special features this year include in-depth analyses of price formation, transport trends, non-OECD economies, non-OPEC production decline, project slippage, key crude export pipeline developments and a stronger emphasis on product supply bottlenecks. An essential report for all policy makers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

Security of supply in competitive electricity markets: The Nordic power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, Balbir

2004-01-01

It is well known that in the absence of a complete set of markets or under conditions of monopoly and imperfect competition, optimal provision of quality can not be taken for granted. Market set in the restructured electricity markets is not complete, physical networks per definition are natural monopolies, market-power issues are yet to be resolved, not all the services supplied through the restructured frameworks are private goods and risk of government intervention is high during the times when market prices signal shortages. Sole reliance on the energy-only markets for optimal provision of security of supply under such conditions is mistaken. On the other hand, centralization of decisions for provision of reserve capacity, such as the gas-reserve capacity proposal in the Norwegian system is not an efficient substitute for missing or imperfect markets. The solution lies in the design of permanent market-mechanisms that enhance the ability of energy-only markets to handle the medium and long-term security of supply. A carefully designed reserve energy certificates mechanism is a viable alternative in this context. (Author)

Power exchange game in the electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pyykko, S.; Partanen, J.; Viljainen, S.; Lassila, J.; Honkapuro, S.; Tahvanainen, K.

2006-01-01

Since it is not economically reasonable to build parallel electricity networks, in Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark, electricity distribution is protected by monopoly. However, electricity production and selling have been opened up to competition by connecting the transmission networks of these countries together, and it is possible to produce electricity where it is cheapest. A common electricity power market, called Nord Pool, has been created where electricity can be bought, sold or used as an exchange product. In order to help students understand the operation of electricity markets and the use of different electricity exchange products, the Department of Electrical Engineering at Lappeenranta University developed a scheme in which the theory can be used in practice. In the scheme, students are given the responsibility to manage the electricity markets of power companies in order analyze, plan and make decisions, which are skills required on the open power markets. The paper provided an introduction to the electricity markets in Nordic countries and discussed Nord Pool and its products. Information about education at the Department of Electrical Engineering at Lappeenranta University of Technology was also presented. The paper also provided details of the power exchange scheme on the electricity markets. 6 refs., 17 figs

The green electricity market model. Proposal for an optional, cost-neutral direct marketing model for supplying electricity customers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinemann, Ronald

2014-01-01

One of the main goals of the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) is the market integration of renewable energy resources. For this purpose it has introduced compulsory direct marketing on the basis of a moving market premium. At the same time the green electricity privilege, a regulation which made it possible for customers to be supplied with electricity from EEG plants, has been abolished without substitution with effect from 1 August 2014. This means that, aside from other direct marketing channels, which will not be economically viable save for in a few exceptional cases, it will no longer be possible in future to sell electricity from EEG plants to electricity customers under the designation ''electricity from renewable energy''. The reason for this is that electricity sold under the market premium model can no longer justifiably be said to originate from renewable energy. As a consequence, almost all green electricity products sold in Germany carry a foreign green electricity certificate.

Does wind energy mitigate market power in deregulated electricity markets?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben-Moshe, Ori; Rubin, Ofir D.

2015-01-01

A rich body of literature suggests that there is an inverse relationship between wind power penetration rate into the electricity market and electricity prices, but it is unclear whether these observations can be generalized. Therefore, in this paper we seek to analytically characterize market conditions that give rise to this inverse relationship. For this purpose, we expand a recently developed theoretical framework to facilitate flexibility in modeling the structure of the electric industry with respect to the degree of market concentration and diversification in the ownership of wind power capacity. The analytical results and their attendant numerical illustrations indicate that the introduction of wind energy into the market does not always depress electricity prices. Such a drop in electricity prices is likely to occur when the number of firms is large enough or the ownership of wind energy is sufficiently diversified, or most often a combination of the two. Importantly, our study defines the circumstances in which the question of which type of firm invests in wind power capacity is crucial for market prices. - Highlights: • Studies show that electricity prices decrease with increased wind power capacity. • We investigate market conditions that give rise to this inverse relationship. • Average prices for wind energy are systematically lower than average market prices. • Conventional generation firms may increase market power by investing in wind farms. • Energy policy should seek to diversify the ownership of wind power capacity

French wholesale electricity and gas markets in 2007. Monitoring report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-12-01

be improved at this stage. Published information on availability forecasts of power generation facilities were insufficient. Finally, CRE has established that the limited development of competition on the retail market and the implementation of the transitional regulated tariff for balancing markets (TaRTAM) have curbed the increase of the wholesale electricity market's activity. Considering these findings, CRE will carry out audits on the valuation methods used by EDF for its nuclear and hydraulic generation. Based on a public consultation, CRE will also formulate recommendations on generation transparency. On the gas wholesale market, CRE observes that the activity on the wholesale market has grown all along 2007 but remained focused on short-term trading. In particular, little public information was available on the market because most of the deals were concluded without intermediary. Moreover, CRE notes that the supplying conditions of suppliers who are not former incumbents in Europe were not satisfactory. These suppliers had to acquire most of their gas on the French market. In order to improve the transparency of the gas wholesale market, CRE will publish aggregated and anonymous information on the bilateral market according to information on volumes that will be collected from market participants