A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koreneff, G.; Seppaelae, A.; Lehtonen, M.; Kekkonen, V.; Laitinen, E.; Haekli, J.; Antila, E.

1998-01-01

In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koreneff, G; Seppaelae, A; Lehtonen, M; Kekkonen, V [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Laitinen, E; Haekli, J [Vaasa Univ. (Finland); Antila, E [ABB Transmit Oy (Finland)

1998-08-01

In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

Short run pricing in competitive electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ring, B. J.; Read, E. G.

1996-01-01

In response to the need for more responsive, competitive and decentralized pricing strategies forced upon the industry by deregulation, this study reviewed the type of electricity pricing required to coordinate a competitive wholesale electricity market over time periods typically of the order of one hour. It was found that nodal spot pricing can provide a straight-forward mechanism for providing the correct signals to market participants, while reflecting the costs and complexities of transmission network operation. Provided that all binding constraints are represented in the pricing model, and assuming that they are used in conjunction with long term contracts and capacity rights, such pricing can potentially deliver most of the benefits promised by perfect coordination, while allowing competition to flourish. 4 refs

Analyzing the Effects of the Iranian Energy Subsidy Reform Plan on Short- Run Marginal Generation Cost of Electricity Using Extended Input-Output Price Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zohreh Salimian

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Subsidizing energy in Iran has imposed high costs on country's economy. Thus revising energy prices, on the basis of a subsidy reform plan, is a vital remedy to boost up the economy. While the direct consequence of cutting subsidies on electricity generation costs can be determined in a simple way, identifying indirect effects, which reflect higher costs for input factors such as labor, is a challenging problem. In this paper, variables such as compensation of employees and private consumption are endogenized by using extended Input-Output (I-O price model to evaluate direct and indirect effects of electricity and fuel prices increase on economic subsectors. The determination of the short-run marginal generation cost of electricity using I-O technique with taken into account the Iranian targeted subsidy plan's influences is the main goal of this paper. Marginal cost of electricity, in various scenarios of price adjustment of energy, is estimated for three conventional categories of thermal power plants. Our results show that the raising the price of energy leads to an increase in the electricity production costs. Accordingly, the production costs will be higher than 1000 Rials per kWh until 2014 as predicted in the beginning of the reform plan by electricity suppliers.

Short-run and Current Analysis Model in Statistics

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Constantin Anghelache

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Using the short-run statistic indicators is a compulsory requirement implied in the current analysis. Therefore, there is a system of EUROSTAT indicators on short run which has been set up in this respect, being recommended for utilization by the member-countries. On the basis of these indicators, there are regular, usually monthly, analysis being achieved in respect of: the production dynamic determination; the evaluation of the short-run investment volume; the development of the turnover; the wage evolution: the employment; the price indexes and the consumer price index (inflation; the volume of exports and imports and the extent to which the imports are covered by the exports and the sold of trade balance. The EUROSTAT system of indicators of conjuncture is conceived as an open system, so that it can be, at any moment extended or restricted, allowing indicators to be amended or even removed, depending on the domestic users requirements as well as on the specific requirements of the harmonization and integration. For the short-run analysis, there is also the World Bank system of indicators of conjuncture, which is utilized, relying on the data sources offered by the World Bank, The World Institute for Resources or other international organizations statistics. The system comprises indicators of the social and economic development and focuses on the indicators for the following three fields: human resources, environment and economic performances. At the end of the paper, there is a case study on the situation of Romania, for which we used all these indicators.

Short-run and Current Analysis Model in Statistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin Mitrut

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Using the short-run statistic indicators is a compulsory requirement implied in the current analysis. Therefore, there is a system of EUROSTAT indicators on short run which has been set up in this respect, being recommended for utilization by the member-countries. On the basis of these indicators, there are regular, usually monthly, analysis being achieved in respect of: the production dynamic determination; the evaluation of the short-run investment volume; the development of the turnover; the wage evolution: the employment; the price indexes and the consumer price index (inflation; the volume of exports and imports and the extent to which the imports are covered by the exports and the sold of trade balance. The EUROSTAT system of indicators of conjuncture is conceived as an open system, so that it can be, at any moment extended or restricted, allowing indicators to be amended or even removed, depending on the domestic users requirements as well as on the specific requirements of the harmonization and integration. For the short-run analysis, there is also the World Bank system of indicators of conjuncture, which is utilized, relying on the data sources offered by the World Bank, The World Institute for Resources or other international organizations statistics. The system comprises indicators of the social and economic development and focuses on the indicators for the following three fields: human resources, environment and economic performances. At the end of the paper, there is a case study on the situation of Romania, for which we used all these indicators.

Short Run Profit Maximization in a Convex Analysis Framework

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Ilko Vrankic

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In this article we analyse the short run profit maximization problem in a convex analysis framework. The goal is to apply the results of convex analysis due to unique structure of microeconomic phenomena on the known short run profit maximization problem where the results from convex analysis are deductively applied. In the primal optimization model the technology in the short run is represented by the short run production function and the normalized profit function, which expresses profit in the output units, is derived. In this approach the choice variable is the labour quantity. Alternatively, technology is represented by the real variable cost function, where costs are expressed in the labour units, and the normalized profit function is derived, this time expressing profit in the labour units. The choice variable in this approach is the quantity of production. The emphasis in these two perspectives of the primal approach is given to the first order necessary conditions of both models which are the consequence of enveloping the closed convex set describing technology with its tangents. The dual model includes starting from the normalized profit function and recovering the production function, and alternatively the real variable cost function. In the first perspective of the dual approach the choice variable is the real wage, and in the second it is the real product price expressed in the labour units. It is shown that the change of variables into parameters and parameters into variables leads to both optimization models which give the same system of labour demand and product supply functions and their inverses. By deductively applying the results of convex analysis the comparative statics results are derived describing the firm's behaviour in the short run.

Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Revisited evidences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ahamad, Mazbahul Golam, E-mail: mg.ahamad@gmail.com [Research Division, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), House: 40C, Road: 11, Dhanmondi, Dhaka 1209 (Bangladesh); Islam, A.K.M. Nazrul, E-mail: nazrul2002@yahoo.com [Research Division, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), House: 40C, Road: 11, Dhanmondi, Dhaka 1209 (Bangladesh)

2011-10-15

In this paper, an attempt is being made to examine the causal relationship between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP of Bangladesh using the vector error correction specified Granger causality test to search their short-run, long-run and joint causal relationships for the period of 1971-2008. Empirical findings reveal that there is a short-run unidirectional causal flow running from per capita electricity consumption to per capita GDP without feedback. The presence of a positive short-run causality explains that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic activity in Bangladesh. Likewise, results from joint causality exhibit the same as in short-run. By contrast, long-run results show a bi-directional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth with feedback. These findings can provide essential policy insights to design immediate and long-term growth prospect for Bangladesh keeping in mind its present planned growth strategy and dismal power and energy sector. - Highlights: > Short-run causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth. > Positive SR causality explains electricity generation directly affects economic growth. > For long run, causality runs from electricity consumption to economic growth with feedback. > Joint causality implies the same as in short-run.

Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Revisited evidences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahamad, Mazbahul Golam; Islam, A.K.M. Nazrul

2011-01-01

In this paper, an attempt is being made to examine the causal relationship between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP of Bangladesh using the vector error correction specified Granger causality test to search their short-run, long-run and joint causal relationships for the period of 1971-2008. Empirical findings reveal that there is a short-run unidirectional causal flow running from per capita electricity consumption to per capita GDP without feedback. The presence of a positive short-run causality explains that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic activity in Bangladesh. Likewise, results from joint causality exhibit the same as in short-run. By contrast, long-run results show a bi-directional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth with feedback. These findings can provide essential policy insights to design immediate and long-term growth prospect for Bangladesh keeping in mind its present planned growth strategy and dismal power and energy sector. - Highlights: → Short-run causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth. → Positive SR causality explains electricity generation directly affects economic growth. → For long run, causality runs from electricity consumption to economic growth with feedback. → Joint causality implies the same as in short-run.

THE LONG-RUN AND SHORT-RUN EFFECTS OF CRUDE OIL PRICE ON METHANOL MARKET IN IRAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akbar Komijani

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Substituting crude oil exports with value-added petrochemical products is one of the main strategies for policy makers in oil-driven economies to isolating the real sectors of economy from oil price volatility. This policy inclination has led to a body of literature in energy economics in recent decades. As a case study, this paper investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between Iran’s oil price and methanol price which is one of the most important non-oil exports of the oil-exporting country. To do so, the weekly data from 18 Jan. 2009 to 18 Sep. 2011 in a VECM framework is applied. The results show that in the long-run, oil price hikes leads to proportional increase in methanol price while in the short-run, this impact is not significant.

Twisting the Dollar? On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stadtmann, Georg; Rülke, Jan; Frenkel, Michael

2012-01-01

’ in the dollar/euro expectation formation process, i.e. market participants expect bandwagon effects in the short run, while they have stabilizing expectations in their long-run forecasts. Applying a panel probit analysis we find that this twisting behavior is more likely to occur in periods of excess exchange...

Long- and Short-Run Components of Factor Betas: Implications for Equity Pricing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asgharian, Hossein; Christiansen, Charlotte; Hou, Ai Jun

We suggest a bivariate component GARCH model that simultaneously obtains factor betas’ long- and short-run components. We apply this new model to industry portfolios using market, small-minus-big, and high-minus-low portfolios as risk factors and find that the cross-sectional average and dispersion...... of the betas’ short-run component increase in bad states of the economy. Our analysis of the risk premium highlights the importance of decomposing risk across horizons: The risk premium associated with the short-run market beta is significantly positive. This is robust to the portfolio-set choice....

Determinants of National Savings: A Short and Long Run ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The study investigated the determinants of national savings by employing the Johansen cointegration technique and error correction model to examine the short run and long run dynamics of the system using time-series data for Ghana over the 1975-2008 period. The study found all the variables to be integrated of order ...

Forecasting Long-Run Electricity Prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamm, Gregory; Borison, Adam

2006-01-01

Estimation of long-run electricity prices is extremely important but it is also very difficult because of the many uncertainties that will determine future prices, and because of the lack of sufficient historical and forwards data. The difficulty is compounded when forecasters ignore part of the available information or unnecessarily limit their thinking about the future. The authors present a practical approach that addresses these problems. (author)

Retiring the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve

Science.gov (United States)

Elwood, S. Kirk

2010-01-01

The author argues that the aggregate demand/aggregate supply (AD/AS) model is significantly improved--although certainly not perfected--by trimming it of the short-run aggregate supply (SRAS) curve. Problems with the SRAS curve are shown first for the AD/AS model that casts the AD curve as identifying the equilibrium level of output associated…

Examining the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Brannan, Michael James

Estimating the consumer demand response to changes in the price of gasoline has important implications regarding fuel tax policies and environmental concerns. There are reasons to believe that the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand fluctuates due to changing structural and behavioral factors. In this paper I estimate the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand in two time periods, from 2001 to 2006 and from 2007 to 2010. This study utilizes data at both the national and state levels to produce estimates. The short-run price elasticities range from -0.034 to -0.047 during 2001 to 2006, compared to -0.058 to -0.077 in the 2007 to 2010 period. This paper also examines whether there are regional differences in the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand in the United States. However, there appears to only be modest variation in price elasticity values across regions.

Trends in economic growth, poverty and energy in Colombia: long-run and short-run effects

OpenAIRE

Cotte Poveda, Alexander; Pardo Martínez, Clara

2011-01-01

This research analyses the long run and short run relationships among economic growth, poverty and energy using the Colombian case. In this study, we use the time-series methodologies. The results regarding the relationship among economic growth, poverty and energy show that increases in gross domestic product and energy supply per capita should lead a decrease of poverty, which should demonstrate that access to modern and adequate energy services help to decrease poverty and to increase econ...

Short- and long-run causality between energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence across regions in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herrerias, M.J.; Joyeux, R.; Girardin, E.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We investigate the relationship between energy and economic growth across Chinese regions. • We examine short- and long-run causality. • We use panel cointegration techniques. • We find that causality runs in the long-run from economic growth to energy consumption from 1999 to 2009. • We conclude that policies for conserving energy can be adopted without interrupting the path of growth. - Abstract: The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has created a large body of research in the energy-economics literature. In this paper, we investigate such a relation in the case of Chinese regions from 1995 to 2009. The majority of previous studies have ignored the regional dimension and the cross-sectional dependence of provinces. Besides, different energy policies adopted by the government have influenced energy intensity over time, showing improvement in the 1990s and deterioration from 2000 onwards. Thus, it is necessary to examine these two periods separately. Moreover, a detailed disaggregation of total energy consumption into electricity, coal, coke, and crude oil consumption and its linkage with economic growth may provide new insights for the design of energy policy across Chinese regions. We use panel techniques to test the direction of the causality in the long- and short-run between these different types of energy consumption and economic growth. Our results are mixed from 1995 to 2009 due the aforementioned break around 1999. However, in all cases our estimations provide empirical evidence that from 1999 to 2009 there is unidirectional causation from economic growth to energy consumption in the long-run. Therefore, energy-saving policies can be adopted without interrupting the path of growth

Quantifying short run cost-effectiveness during a gradual implementation process.

Science.gov (United States)

van de Wetering, Gijs; Woertman, Willem H; Verbeek, Andre L; Broeders, Mireille J; Adang, Eddy M M

2013-12-01

This paper examines the short run inefficiencies that arise during gradual implementation of a new cost-effective technology in healthcare. These inefficiencies arise when health gains associated with the new technology cannot be obtained immediately because the new technology does not yet supply all patients, and when there is overcapacity for the old technology in the short run because the supply of care is divided among two mutually exclusive technologies. Such efficiency losses are not taken into account in standard textbook cost-effectiveness analysis in which a steady state is presented where costs and effects are assumed to be unchanging over time. A model is constructed to quantify such short run inefficiencies as well as to inform the decision maker about the optimal implementation pattern for the new technology. The model operates by integrating the incremental net benefit equations for both the period of co-existence of mutually exclusive technologies and the period after complete substitution of the old technology. It takes into account the rate of implementation of the new technology, depreciation of capital of the old technology as well as the demand curves for both technologies. The model is applied to the real world case of converting from screen film to digital mammography in the Netherlands.

The Short- and Long-Run Marginal Cost Curve: A Pedagogical Note.

Science.gov (United States)

Sexton, Robert L.; And Others

1993-01-01

Contends that the standard description of the relationship between the long-run marginal cost curve and the short-run marginal cost curve is often misleading and imprecise. Asserts that a sampling of college-level textbooks confirms this confusion. Provides a definition and instructional strategy that can be used to promote student understanding…

A short-run solution to the power crisis of Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imran, Muhammad; Amir, Namra

2015-01-01

Pakistan is in a deep power crisis since 2008 which the government is trying to control by adding new generation capacity. This strategy, however, will not be helpful in the short-run. The only way, the power crisis can be controlled or mitigated in the short-run, is to efficiently utilize the available resources. Government lacks such a strategy at this point. The paper provides such a strategy by setting up a power sector model with multiple modules of generation, transmission and distribution. The model provides an efficient way of utilizing the available resources and can be used to perform simulations at different stages of the supply-chain. The results of model show that, if the given resources are utilized efficiently, the power generation increases by 3222 GWh or 5 percent of the current output and the revenue increases by $945 million or 12 percent. The extra generated power decrease the cost of power production by 0.52 ¢/KWh cents and reduces the power load-shedding for 2–3 h. These outcomes can significantly relieve the sector and the people of Pakistan. The results of the model have important policy implications on working of the sector and circular debt reduction. - Highlights: • Government needs a new strategy to come out of the power crisis along with adding new power generation. • Because one major reason of current power crisis is the inefficient use of available resources. • Focus of this paper is to provide such a strategy by setting up a power sector supply-chain model. • When resources are utilized efficiently, power generation and revenue increases by 5 and 12 percent respectively. • These outputs decreases cost of power production by 0.52¢/KWh and power load-shedding by 2–3 h.

Short-Run Contexts and Imperfect Testing for Continuous Sampling Plans

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirella Rodriguez

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Continuous sampling plans are used to ensure a high level of quality for items produced in long-run contexts. The basic idea of these plans is to alternate between 100% inspection and a reduced rate of inspection frequency. Any inspected item that is found to be defective is replaced with a non-defective item. Because not all items are inspected, some defective items will escape to the customer. Analytical formulas have been developed that measure both the customer perceived quality and also the level of inspection effort. The analysis of continuous sampling plans does not apply to short-run contexts, where only a finite-size batch of items is to be produced. In this paper, a simulation algorithm is designed and implemented to analyze the customer perceived quality and the level of inspection effort for short-run contexts. A parameter representing the effectiveness of the test used during inspection is introduced to the analysis, and an analytical approximation is discussed. An application of the simulation algorithm that helped answer questions for the U.S. Navy is discussed.

Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dilaver, Zafer; Hunt, Lester C

2011-01-01

This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period from 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of Turkish residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57, respectively, and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the impacts of changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of changes in economic structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity demand will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008. - Research highlights: → Estimated short run and long run expenditure elasticities of 0.38 and 1.57, respectively. → Estimated short run and long run price elasticities of -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. → Estimated UEDT has increasing (i.e. energy using) and decreasing (i.e. energy saving) periods. → Predicted Turkish residential electricity demand between 48 and 80 TWh in 2020.

A robust multivariate long run analysis of European electricity prices

OpenAIRE

Bruno Bosco; Lucia Parisio; Matteo Pelagatti; Fabio Baldi

2007-01-01

This paper analyses the interdependencies existing in wholesale electricity prices in six major European countries. The results of our robust multivariate long run dynamic analysis reveal the presence of four highly integrated central European markets (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria). The trend shared by these four electricity markets appears to be common also to gas prices, but not to oil prices. The existence of long term dynamics among electricity prices and between electrici...

Does Electricity Drive the Development of Manufacturing Sector in Malaysia?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan [Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Sarawak (Malaysia); Lean, Hooi Hooi, E-mail: hooilean@usm.my [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang (Malaysia)

2015-04-22

This paper investigates the relationship between electricity consumption, output, and price in the manufacturing sector in Malaysia. We find that electricity consumption, output, and price are cointegrated in the long run. In addition, it has been found that the relationship between electricity consumption and output is positive. In the long run, we find a unidirectional causality from manufacturing output to electricity consumption. This result indicates that the development of manufacturing sector stimulates greater demand for electricity. Government needs to make sure that the planning of electricity supply in the future is in line with the economic development planning to avoid shortage in electricity supply. In the short run, a unidirectional relationship runs from electricity consumption to output is found. A decrease of energy usage in production might reduce the output growth in short run. Hence, we suggest improving the efficiency of electricity usage and some cost-effective sources of energy.

Does Electricity Drive the Development of Manufacturing Sector in Malaysia?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan; Lean, Hooi Hooi

2015-01-01

This paper investigates the relationship between electricity consumption, output, and price in the manufacturing sector in Malaysia. We find that electricity consumption, output, and price are cointegrated in the long run. In addition, it has been found that the relationship between electricity consumption and output is positive. In the long run, we find a unidirectional causality from manufacturing output to electricity consumption. This result indicates that the development of manufacturing sector stimulates greater demand for electricity. Government needs to make sure that the planning of electricity supply in the future is in line with the economic development planning to avoid shortage in electricity supply. In the short run, a unidirectional relationship runs from electricity consumption to output is found. A decrease of energy usage in production might reduce the output growth in short run. Hence, we suggest improving the efficiency of electricity usage and some cost-effective sources of energy.

Short-run Economic Assessment of the Transportation Recovery Policy After an Earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Koike Atsushi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper develops a short-run economic damage assessment model. The model contains two sub models. One is the conventional traffic assignment model, which calculates traveling time under the damaged transportation infrastructure. The other is the economic damage assessment model, which determines the decrease in production level in the short run. This method facilitates the identification of critical infrastructure that could reduce the economic damage when the disaster occurs. As a case study, we applied this model to several recovery plans for transport facilities. The results suggest that the proposed comprehensive model should be considered as a prevention plan.

The Short-Run And Long-Run Relationship In The Indonesia Islamic Stock Returns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M Shabri Abd Majid

2016-02-01

Full Text Available This paper aims at empirically examining the short-run and long-run causal relationship between the Indonesian Islamic stock returns and selected macroeconomic variables namely inflation, money supply and exchange rate during the pre- and post- 2008 global financial turmoil period from 2002 until 2007 and from 2008 until 2013 by using monthly data. The methodology used in this study is time series econometric techniques i.e. the unit root test,co-integration test, error correction model (ECM and variance decompositions(VDCs. The findings showed that there is cointegration between Islamic stock prices and macroeconomic variables. The results suggest that inflation, money supply, and exchange rate significantly affected the Islamic stock returns in Indonesia. These variables should be taken into account by the policy-makers as the important policy instruments in stabilizing Islamic stock markets in the countryDOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i1.2505

Quantifying short run cost-effectiveness during a gradual implementation process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wetering, G. van de; Woertman, W.H.; Verbeek, A.L.M.; Broeders, M.J.M.; Adang, E.M.M.

2013-01-01

This paper examines the short run inefficiencies that arise during gradual implementation of a new cost-effective technology in healthcare. These inefficiencies arise when health gains associated with the new technology cannot be obtained immediately because the new technology does not yet supply

Short- and long-run elasticities in energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bentzen, J.; Engsted, T.

1993-01-01

Short- and long-run energy demand elasticities are estimated on Danish annual data for 1948-90. Energy consumption, the real price of energy and real GDP appear to be non-stationary variables. Cointegration and error-correction methods are therefore applied. All estimated parameters have the expected signs and magnitudes and no evidence is found of a structural break in energy demand caused by the increases in real energy prices since 1973/74. (author)

'Electricity is running through my veins': DIE symbiose Zwischen ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

'Electricity is running through my veins': the symbiosis between humankind and technology in Marshall McLuhan's media theory. In contrast to a widespread technical-mathematical media model that reduces electronic media to transmission channels, thereby making information into a quantifi able commodity, Canadian ...

Tin Whisker Electrical Short Circuit Characteristics. Part 2

Science.gov (United States)

Courey, Karim J.; Asfour, Shihab S.; Onar, Arzu; Bayliss, Jon A.; Ludwig, Lawrence L.; Wright, Maria C.

2009-01-01

Existing risk simulations make the assumption that when a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors, the result is an electrical short circuit. This conservative assumption is made because shorting is a random event that has an unknown probability associated with it. Note however that due to contact resistance electrical shorts may not occur at lower voltage levels. In our first article we developed an empirical probability model for tin whisker shorting. In this paper, we develop a more comprehensive empirical model using a refined experiment with a larger sample size, in which we studied the effect of varying voltage on the breakdown of the contact resistance which leads to a short circuit. From the resulting data we estimated the probability distribution of an electrical short, as a function of voltage. In addition, the unexpected polycrystalline structure seen in the focused ion beam (FIB) cross section in the first experiment was confirmed in this experiment using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The FIB was also used to cross section two card guides to facilitate the measurement of the grain size of each card guide's tin plating to determine its finish.

The flexibility of household electricity demand over time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halvorsen, B.; Larsen, B.M.

2001-01-01

Empirical estimates of long run effects on residential electricity demand from changes in the electricity price are usually estimated by cross-sectional variation in the current stock of electric household appliances across households at a certain point in time. Here, we use a discrete-continuous approach modeling the long run effects by investments in new appliances. We apply the annual Norwegian Survey of Consumer Expenditure for the period 1975 to 1994 to estimate the short and long run own price elasticities in the two approaches. We find the estimated long run elasticity only slightly more price elastic than the short run. We also find that the long run elasticity does not differ significantly between the two approaches. The reason for both results is that, since there is no alternative source of energy for these appliances, there are no substitution effects

Forecasting short-run crude oil price using high- and low-inventory variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ye, Michael; Zyren, John; Shore, Joanne

2006-01-01

Since inventories have a lower bound or a minimum operating level, economic literature suggests a nonlinear relationship between inventory level and commodity prices. This was found to be the case in the short-run crude oil market. In order to explore this inventory-price relationship, two nonlinear inventory variables are defined and derived from the monthly normal level and relative level of OECD crude oil inventories from post 1991 Gulf War to October 2003: one for the low inventory state and another for the high inventory state of the crude oil market. Incorporation of low- and high-inventory variables in a single equation model to forecast short-run WTI crude oil prices enhances the model fit and forecast ability

Trends in economic growth, poverty and energy in Colombia: long-run and short-run effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cotte Poveda, Alexander [University of Goettingen, Department of Economics, Goettingen (Germany); University of La Salle, Faculty of Accounting and Administration, Bogota (Colombia); Pardo Martinez, Clara Ines [Royal Institute of Technology, KTH, Energy and Climate Studies, Department of Energy Technology, Stockholm (Sweden); University of La Salle, Faculty of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia)

2011-11-15

This research analyses the long run and short run relationships among economic growth, poverty and energy using the Colombian case. In this study, we use the time-series methodologies. The results regarding the relationship among economic growth, poverty and energy show that increases in gross domestic product and energy supply per capita should lead a decrease of poverty, which should demonstrate that access to modern and adequate energy services help to decrease poverty and to increase economic growth. Moreover, the improvements in energy efficiency have contributed to increase economic growth from an approach of sustainable development. These results are important for the adequate design, formulation and application of policies and strategies that encourage a better energy use to improve economic growth and decrease poverty, especially in developing countries. (orig.)

Pricing of electricity in Indonesia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amarullah, M.

1983-01-01

The objectives of this study are 1) to establish a sound theoretical basis for the determinants of electricity demand in Indonesia, 2) to measure the welfare losses of existing electricity pricing, and 3) to suggest a method of reducing these welfare losses. An econometric model for electricity demand is estimated using pooled time-series of fifteen regions in Indonesia covering the period 1970-1979. The short run price elasticities for both residential and industrial/business sectors are found to be inelastic, while the long run price elasticities for these sectors are found to be quite elastic with a value of -.61 for the residential sector and of -1.1 for the industrial/business sector. Income elasticity is .8 in the short run and around 1.00 for the long run. The exposure variable that captures the accessibility of electricity, has long run elasticity of 1.00 for the residential sector and less than 1.00 for the industrial/business sector. Due to distributional considerations, the 1980's electricity rate was set below its efficient level, and has created a welfare loss of Rp.8273.23 million per month. This accounts for 36.03% of the monthly electricity revenue. A rebate mechanism is recommended in this study, which provides a way to mitigate conflicting aspects of efficiency and equity

Estimating zonal electricity supply curves in transmission-constrained electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahraei-Ardakani, Mostafa; Blumsack, Seth; Kleit, Andrew

2015-01-01

Many important electricity policy initiatives would directly affect the operation of electric power networks. This paper develops a method for estimating short-run zonal supply curves in transmission-constrained electricity markets that can be implemented quickly by policy analysts with training in statistical methods and with publicly available data. Our model enables analysis of distributional impacts of policies affecting operation of electric power grid. The method uses fuel prices and zonal electric loads to determine piecewise supply curves, identifying zonal electricity price and marginal fuel. We illustrate our methodology by estimating zonal impacts of Pennsylvania's Act 129, an energy efficiency and conservation policy. For most utilities in Pennsylvania, Act 129 would reduce the influence of natural gas on electricity price formation and increase the influence of coal. The total resulted savings would be around 267 million dollars, 82 percent of which would be enjoyed by the customers in Pennsylvania. We also analyze the impacts of imposing a $35/ton tax on carbon dioxide emissions. Our results show that the policy would increase the average prices in PJM by 47–89 percent under different fuel price scenarios in the short run, and would lead to short-run interfuel substitution between natural gas and coal. - Highlights: • We develop a method to estimate of zonal supply curves in electricity markets. • The model estimates zonal electricity prices and zonal fuel utilization. • The model implicitly captures the average impacts of transmission constraints. • Using the method, we project supply curves for the seventeen utility zones of PJM. • We use the estimated supply curves to study the impacts of Pennsylvania's Act 129 and a carbon tax of $35 per ton

Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jamil, Faisal, E-mail: fsljml@hotmail.com [School of Economics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad (Pakistan); Ahmad, Eatzaz, E-mail: eatzaz@qau.edu.pk [School of Economics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad (Pakistan)

2011-09-15

Cointegration and vector error correction modeling approaches are widely used in electricity demand analysis. The study rigorously examines the determinants of electricity demand at aggregate and sectoral levels in Pakistan. In the backdrop of severe electricity shortages, our empirical findings give support to the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables and indicate that electricity demand is elastic in the long run to both income and price at aggregate level. At sectoral level, long-run income and price elasticity estimates follow this pattern except in agricultural sector, where electricity demand is found elastic to output but inelastic to electricity price. On the contrary, the coefficients for income and price are rather small and mostly insignificant in the short run. We employed temperature index, price of diesel oil and capital stock at aggregate and sectoral levels as exogenous variables. These variables account for most of the variations in electricity demand in the short run. It shows that mechanization of the economy significantly affect the electricity demand at macro level. Moreover, elastic electricity demand with respect to electricity price in most of the sectors implies that electricity price as a policy tool can be used for efficient use and conservation. - Highlights: > The study conducts analysis for aggregate and four sectors. > Sectoral analyses are for residential, commercial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. > We obtained higher positive income and negative price elasticity in the long run. > The higher price elasticity implies that price can be used as a policy tool. > Capital stock and temperature variables explain most of the short-run demand fluctuations.

Determinants of electricity consumption function in Pakistan: Old wine in a new bottle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaman, Khalid; Khan, Muhammad M.; Ahmad, Mehboob; Rustam, Rabiah

2012-01-01

The objective of the study is to re-investigate the multivariate electricity consumption function for Pakistan, particularly, economic growth, foreign direct investment and population growth over a 36-year time period, i.e., between 1975 and 2010. The study employed the bounds-testing procedure for cointegration which examines the short-run and long-run estimates. Dynamic short-run causality test is applied to determine the causality direction between electricity consumption and its determinants, by using Wald-F statistics. The results reveal that determinants of electricity consumption function are cointegrated and influx of foreign direct investment, income and population growth is positively related to electricity consumption in Pakistan. However, the intensity of these determinants is different on electricity consumption. If there is 1% increase in income, foreign direct investment and population growth; electricity consumption increases by 0.973%; 0.056% and 1.605%, respectively. This infers that income, foreign direct investment and population growth induce an increase in electricity consumption in Pakistan. Dynamic short-run causality test indicates that there has been unidirectional causality which is running from population growth to electricity consumption in Pakistan. - Highlights: ► To re-investigate the multivariate electricity consumption function for Pakistan. ► FDI, income and population growth are positively related to electricity consumption. ► The intensity of determinants is different on electricity consumption. ► Population growth exerts the major contributor to increase electricity consumption. ► Unidirectional causality running from population growth to electricity.

Estimating Short run and Long run Coefficients of Fundamentals Factors with Growth and Momentum Factor: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adnan Shoaib

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This study examines the long term relationship of risk premium and fundamental factors in emerging stock markets of China, India and Pakistan keeping in view leading contribution of Fama and French (1992 and Carhart (1997 models. Contrary to the macroeconomic multifactor models, this study incorporates firm-specific risk factors related to the market premium; size (SMB, value (HML, momentum (WML and growth (UMD as determinants of risk premium. The firm-specific growth factor is incorporated based on evidence from Ho, Strange, and Piesse (2008 by employing (UMD which is based on assets to market equity of the firm. Sample of 1198 companies from the three emerging markets for the period of 2001-2013 depicts market risk premium as the leading factor affecting risk premium in Indian and the Pakistani markets. Results reveal market momentum being high enough to overestimate coefficients in the short run. However, the relationship is stabilized and adjusted in the long run. Chinese markets, where all the risk factors seem to play their role to determine risk premium, are relatively much stable and grown-up and clearly represent maturity of the Chinese markets. Distinction between the short run and long run might be useful for the investors of the three emerging economies. According to the principle of high risk associated with high returns, small value happens to deliver higher returns with higher volatility. The growth stocks outperform value stocks in these economies.

Turning the wind into hydrogen: The long-run impact on electricity prices and generating capacity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, Richard; Hu, Helen; Vasilakos, Nicholas

2011-01-01

Hydrogen production via electrolysis has been proposed as a way of absorbing the fluctuating electricity generated by wind power, potentially allowing the use of cheap electricity at times when it would otherwise be in surplus. We show that large-scale adoption of electrolysers would change the shape of the load-duration curve for electricity, affecting the optimal capacity mix. Nuclear power stations will replace gas-fired power stations, as they are able to run for longer periods of time. Changes in the electricity capacity mix will be much greater than changes to the pattern of prices. The long-run supply price of hydrogen will thus tend to be insensitive to the amount produced. - Research Highlights: → Hydrogen production from electrolysis may offset intermittent wind generation. → The generation capacity mix will change in response to changed demand patterns. → The long-run equilibrium supply curve for hydrogen will be quite flat. → The production cost will be very sensitive to fuel prices paid by generators.

Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamil, Faisal; Ahmad, Eatzaz

2011-01-01

Cointegration and vector error correction modeling approaches are widely used in electricity demand analysis. The study rigorously examines the determinants of electricity demand at aggregate and sectoral levels in Pakistan. In the backdrop of severe electricity shortages, our empirical findings give support to the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables and indicate that electricity demand is elastic in the long run to both income and price at aggregate level. At sectoral level, long-run income and price elasticity estimates follow this pattern except in agricultural sector, where electricity demand is found elastic to output but inelastic to electricity price. On the contrary, the coefficients for income and price are rather small and mostly insignificant in the short run. We employed temperature index, price of diesel oil and capital stock at aggregate and sectoral levels as exogenous variables. These variables account for most of the variations in electricity demand in the short run. It shows that mechanization of the economy significantly affect the electricity demand at macro level. Moreover, elastic electricity demand with respect to electricity price in most of the sectors implies that electricity price as a policy tool can be used for efficient use and conservation. - Highlights: → The study conducts analysis for aggregate and four sectors. → Sectoral analyses are for residential, commercial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. → We obtained higher positive income and negative price elasticity in the long run. → The higher price elasticity implies that price can be used as a policy tool. → Capital stock and temperature variables explain most of the short-run demand fluctuations.

Modified SPC for short run test and measurement process in multi-stations

Science.gov (United States)

Koh, C. K.; Chin, J. F.; Kamaruddin, S.

2018-03-01

Due to short production runs and measurement error inherent in electronic test and measurement (T&M) processes, continuous quality monitoring through real-time statistical process control (SPC) is challenging. Industry practice allows the installation of guard band using measurement uncertainty to reduce the width of acceptance limit, as an indirect way to compensate the measurement errors. This paper presents a new SPC model combining modified guard band and control charts (\\bar{\\text{Z}} chart and W chart) for short runs in T&M process in multi-stations. The proposed model standardizes the observed value with measurement target (T) and rationed measurement uncertainty (U). S-factor (S f) is introduced to the control limits to improve the sensitivity in detecting small shifts. The model was embedded in automated quality control system and verified with a case study in real industry.

The electricity consumption and economic growth nexus: Evidence from Greece

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Polemis, Michael L.; Dagoumas, Athanasios S.

2013-01-01

This paper attempts to cast light into the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Greece in a multivariate framework. For this purpose we used cointegration techniques and the vector error correction model in order to capture short-run and long-run dynamics over the sample period 1970–2011. The empirical results reveal that in the long-run electricity demand appears to be price inelastic and income elastic, while in the short-run the relevant elasticities are below unity. We also argue that the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Greece is bi-directional. Our results strengthen the notion that Greece is an energy dependent country and well directed energy conservation policies could even boost economic growth. Furthermore, the implementation of renewable energy sources should provide significant benefits ensuring sufficient security of supply in the Greek energy system. This evidence can provide a new basis for discussion on the appropriate design and implementation of environmental and energy policies for Greece and other medium sized economies with similar characteristics. -- Highlights: •We examine the causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. •We used cointegration techniques to capture short-run and long-run dynamics. •The relationship between electricity consumption and GDP is bi-directional. •Residential energy switching in Greece is still limited. •The implementation of renewable energy sources should ensure security of supply

Testing for the validity of purchasing power parity theory both in the long-run and the short-run for ASEAN-5

Science.gov (United States)

Choji, Niri Martha; Sek, Siok Kun

2017-11-01

The purchasing power parity theory says that the trade rates among two nations ought to be equivalent to the proportion of the total price levels between the two nations. For more than a decade, there has been substantial interest in testing for the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) empirically. This paper performs a series of tests to see if PPP is valid for ASEAN-5 nations for the period of 2000-2016 using monthly data. For this purpose, we conducted four different tests of stationarity, two cointegration tests (Pedroni and Westerlund), and also the VAR model. The stationarity (unit root) tests reveal that the variables are not stationary at levels however stationary at first difference. Cointegration test results did not reject the H0 of no cointegration implying the absence long-run association among the variables and results of the VAR model did not reveal a strong short-run relationship. Based on the data, we, therefore, conclude that PPP is not valid in long-and short-run for ASEAN-5 during 2000-2016.

Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

Testing for Unit Roots in Small Panels with Short-run and Long-run Cross-sectional Dependencies

OpenAIRE

Yoosoon Chang; Wonho Song

2009-01-01

An IV approach, using as instruments non-linear transformations of the lagged levels, is explored to test for unit roots in panels with general dependency and heterogeneity across cross-sectional units. We allow not only for the cross-sectional dependencies of innovations, but also for the presence of co-integration across cross-sectional levels. Unbalanced panels and panels with differing individual short-run dynamics and cross-sectionally related dynamics are also permitted. We also more ca...

The long and short run forcing variables of purchasing power parity of ASEAN-5

OpenAIRE

Abdalrahman AbuDalu; Elsadig Musa Ahmed

2013-01-01

This study examines the long-run and short-run forcing variables of purchasing power parity (PPP) for ASEAN-5 currencies vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar, i.e., their real effective exchange rate (REER). This study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration over the period 1991:Q1 – 2006:Q2. Our empirical results suggest that the domestic money supply (M1) is a significant long run forcing variable for the REERs of Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore. H...

Planning and running of the hydro aggregates in the electric power system in the R. Macedonia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ilijovski, Igor

2015-01-01

The subject of the research in this master thesis is analysis of the main characteristics and control of the large Hydropower plants (HPPs) in the electric power system in R. Macedonia, which are subject to planning in the running tables. ELEM and MEPSO are using SCADA system for monitoring and control of the hydropower plants. The planning is a complex process where many aspects should be covered. With correct and optimal control of the hydro aggregates, depending on the hydrology, climate, elevation of the reservoirs and many other conditions, a better efficiency of the water resources usage may be obtained, which results in positive financial outcomes. (author)

The long-run equilibrium impact of intermittent renewables on wholesale electricity prices

OpenAIRE

Newbery, D.

2016-01-01

High levels of low variable cost intermittent renewables lower wholesale electricity prices, and the depression of these prices could legitimately be recovered from consumers, preferably through capacity payments. Given that renewables are frequently subsidized for their learning benefits and carbon reduction, this paper asks what part of these subsidies should be recovered from final consumers. In long-run equilibrium, renewables have no impact on the number of hours peaking capacity runs, a...

The Impact of Dynamic Electricity Tariff on Long-run Incremental Cost

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ding, Yi; Li, Yang; Pineda, Salvador

2012-01-01

Electricity plays an important role in the future energy framework around the world. The foreseen high penetration of renewable energy resources and electric vehicles (EV) will change the way of understanding and operating power systems. Consequently, significant investment in network infrastruct......Electricity plays an important role in the future energy framework around the world. The foreseen high penetration of renewable energy resources and electric vehicles (EV) will change the way of understanding and operating power systems. Consequently, significant investment in network...... infrastructure needs to be made in order to cope with this tremendous change in an efficient and effective manner. Long-run incremental cost (LRIC) pricing method is recognized as an economically efficient approach for pricing network charges, which provides forward-looking information for future investment cost...

Long and Short Run Dynamics of Agricultural and Petroleum Sectors in the Economic Growth of Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Okunola Akinbode Michael

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This study examined the economic relationship among agriculture and petroleum sectors and growth of Nigeria’s economy as well as the effects of these two key sectors on the economic growth. The Bound (ARDL test which was used to examine the long-run relationship among the variables revealed that there is a long-run relationship among agricultural and petroleum sectors and economic growth. In the short run, both sectors have positive significant relationship with the economic growth. While for every 1% change in agricultural productivity there is about 60.89% change on economic growth, petroleum sector had about 37.07% change effect. Thus, agriculture contributes more than the petroleum sector in the short run. In the long-run, both sectors also have positive relationship with economic growth. Agriculture in the long-run also contribute more than the petroleum sector. While a 1% change in agricultural productivity effects a 53.49% increase in economic growth, petroleum sector increases GDP by 43.71%. However, in the long-run, while agriculture is significant at 5%, petroleum sector is significant at 10%. In conclusion, the positive relationship of both sectors with economic growth shows that they are rather economically complimentary than competitive that the actions and inactions of the government have made them look.

Electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayan, P.K.; Smyth, Russell

2005-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia within a cointegration and causality framework. We find that electricity consumption, employment and real income are cointegrated and that in the long-run employment and real income Granger cause electricity consumption, while in the short run there is weak unidirectional Granger causality running from income to electricity consumption and from income to employment

Dezenflasyon Sürecinde Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Uzun ve Kısa Dönem Dinamiklerinin Modellenmesi(Modelling The Long Run and The Short Run Dynamics of Inflation In The Disinflation Process In Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Macide ÇİÇEK

2005-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, it is employed that Expectations-Augmented Philips Curve Model to investigate the link between inflation and unit labor costs, output gap (proxy for demand shocks, real exchange rate (proxy for supply shocks and price expectations for Turkey using monthly data from 2000:01 to 2004:12. The methodology employed in this paper uses unit root test, Johansen Cointegration Test to examine the existence of possible long run relationships among the variables included in the model and a single equation error correction model for the inflation equation estimated by OLS to examine the short run dynamics of inflation, respectively. It is find that in the long run, mark-up behaviour of output prices over unit labor costs is the main cause of inflation, real exchange rate has a rather big impact on reduced inflation and demand shocks don’t led to an increase in prices. The short run dynamics of the inflation equation indicate that supply shocks are the determinant of inflation in the short run. It is also find that exchange rate is the variable that trigger an inflation adjustment the most rapidly in the short run.

CO{sub 2} emissions, electricity consumption and output in ASEAN

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); Smyth, Russell [Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton 3800 (Australia)

2010-06-15

This study examines the causal relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, electricity consumption and economic growth within a panel vector error correction model for five ASEAN countries over the period 1980-2006. The long-run estimates indicate that there is a statistically significant positive association between electricity consumption and emissions and a non-linear relationship between emissions and real output, consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve. The long-run estimates, however, do not indicate the direction of causality between the variables. The results from the Granger causality tests suggest that in the long-run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from electricity consumption and emissions to economic growth. The results also point to unidirectional Granger causality running from emissions to electricity consumption in the short-run. (author)

Short- and long-run demand for energy in Mexico: a cointegration approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galindo, L.M.

2005-01-01

The objective of this paper is to estimate the demands for the different types of energy consumption for the Mexican economy over the period 1965-2001. These demands are modeled as a function of output and the own real price. The Johansen (J. Econ. Dynamics Control 12 (1988) 231) procedure and the likelihood ratio tests indicate the existence of long-run and stable relationships between each type of energy demand and income with the exception of the industrial sector where the cointegrating vector also includes the relative prices. The weak exogeneity tests indicate that energy consumption and income do not reject the null hypothesis of weak exogeneity when relative prices are weak exogenous. The final econometric models show that relative prices in the short run are relevant in all cases, with the exception of the residential sector. These results indicate that in Mexico the demand for energy is fundamentally driven by income and that the effect of the relative prices is basically concentrated on the short run with the exception of the industrial sector, which also shows a long-term price impact. The strong dependence of energy consumption with respect to income and the price inelastic response indicates that it is necessary to introduce strong measures to decouple energy consumption from output in order to obtain sustainable economic growth in Mexico

Children and Careers: How Family Size Affects Parents' Labor Market Outcomes in the Long Run.

Science.gov (United States)

Cools, Sara; Markussen, Simen; Strøm, Marte

2017-10-01

We estimate the effect of family size on various measures of labor market outcomes over the whole career until retirement, using instrumental variables estimation in data from Norwegian administrative registers. Parents' number of children is instrumented with the sex mix of their first two children. We find that having additional children causes sizable reductions in labor supply for women, which fade as children mature and even turn positive for women without a college degree. Among women with a college degree, there is evidence of persistent and even increasing career penalties of family size. Having additional children reduces these women's probability of being employed by higher-paying firms, their earnings rank within the employing firm, and their probability of being the top earner at the workplace. Some of the career effects persist long after labor supply is restored. We find no effect of family size on any of men's labor market outcomes in either the short or long run.

articles: The implementation of marginal external cost pricing in road transport Long run vs short run and first-best vs second-best

OpenAIRE

Erik T. Verhoef

2000-01-01

This article discusses a number of issues that will become increasingly important now that the concept of marginal external cost pricing becomes more likely to be implemented as a policy strategy in transport in reality. The first part of the article deals with the long-run efficiency of marginal external cost pricing. It is shown that such prices not only optimize short-run mobility, given the shape and position of the relevant demand and cost curves, but even more importantly, also optimall...

Modelling aggregate domestic electricity demand in Ghana: An autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adom, Philip Kofi; Bekoe, William; Akoena, Sesi Kutri Komla

2012-01-01

In spite of the varying supply boosting efforts made by various governments to deal with the existing demand–supply gap in the electricity sector, the incessant growth in aggregate domestic electricity demand has made these efforts futile. As an objective, this paper attempts to identify the factors responsible for the historical growth trends in aggregate domestic electricity demand quantifying their effects both in the short-run and long-run periods using the ARDL Bounds cointegration approach and the sample period 1975 to 2005. In the long-run, real per capita GDP, industry efficiency, structural changes in the economy, and degree of urbanisation are identified as the main driving force behind the historical growth trend in aggregate domestic electricity demand. However, in the short-run, real per capita GDP, industry efficiency, and degree of urbanisation are the main drivers of aggregate domestic electricity demand. Industry efficiency is the only factor that drives aggregate domestic electricity demand downwards. However, the negative efficiency effect is insufficient to have outweighed the positive income, output, and demographic effects, hence the continual growth in aggregate domestic electricity demand. As a policy option, we recommend that appropriate electricity efficiency standards be implemented at the industry level. - Highlights: ► Real per capita GDP is the primary determinant of electricity demand both in the short and long-run. ► Industrial efficiency, structural changes and urbanisation rate play secondary role. ► The positive income, output, and demographic effects outweigh the negative efficiency effects.

Electricity pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wijayatunga, P.D.C.

1994-01-01

Electricity pricing in most countries, especially in the developing world, has been determined by traditional accounting criteria where it raises revenue requirements to cover the operating costs and a return on past and future capital investments in possible power systems. The use of economic principles to improve the total economic efficiency in the electricity industry is discussed. Basic marginal cost theory, long run marginal costing (LRMC) cost categories and rating periods, marginal capacity costs, marginal energy costs, consumer costs, short run marginal costing (SRMC), marginal cost of fuel, marginal cost of network losses, market clearing price, value of unserved energy and network quality of supply cost are discussed

Economic growth and electricity consumption in Cote d'Ivoire: Evidence from time series analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kouakou, Auguste K.

2011-01-01

This paper examines the causal relationship between the electric power industry and the economic growth of Cote d'Ivoire. Using the data from 1971 to 2008, a test was conducted for the cointegration and Granger causality within an error correction model. Results from these tests reveal a bidirectional causality between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP. A unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to industry value added appears in the short run. Economic growth is found to have great effects on electricity consumption and a reverse causality from electricity to economic growth may also appear. In the long run, there is a unidirectional causality between electricity and both GDP and industry value added. From these findings, we conclude that the country will be energy dependent in the long run and must therefore secure the production network from shortfalls to ensure a sustainable development path. Accordingly, government should adopt policies aimed at increasing the investment in the sector by stepping up electricity production from existing and new energy sources. - Highlights: → We analyze the electricity-growth nexus for Cote d'Ivoire using causality tests. → Short run bi-directional causality appears between electricity and GDP. → We found a unidirectional causality running from electricity to industry and GDP. → Economic activities are electricity dependent and require appropriate policies.

The effect of graduated compression tights, compared with running shorts, on counter movement jump performance before and after submaximal running.

Science.gov (United States)

Rugg, Stuart; Sternlicht, Eric

2013-04-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if wearing graduated compression tights, compared with loose fitting running shorts, would increase and or help sustain counter movement jump (CMJ) height after submaximal running. Fourteen competitive runners (6 women and 8 men) participated in this study. The subjects' mean (±SD) for age, height, body mass, percent body fat, resting heart rate, and maximal heart rate were 28.2 ± 14.0 years, 174.7 ± 8.6 cm, 70.2 ± 14.9 kg, 15.5 ± 8.1%, 67.2 ± 7.4 b.min, and 186.5 ± 9.5 b.min, respectively. During testing, subjects wore a Polar RS400 heart rate monitor. Each trial consisted of 15 minutes of continual treadmill running with 5 minutes performed at 50%, 70%, and 85% of the subject's heart rate reserve. Using a Vertec vertical leaper, each subject performed 3 CMJ, both pre- and postrun trials, with the mean value used to measure relative leg power. In addition to the CMJ height data, each subject rated their level of perceived exertion (RPE), and their comfort level, after the postrun trials. The mean postrun CMJ height in graduated compression tights of 60.3 ± 19.4 cm was significantly greater (at the p shorts of 57.7 ± 19.6 cm (4.5% increase). In addition, the subjects reported a significantly lower level of perceived exertion and greater comfort values while wearing the graduated compression tights. The results of the present study support the use of graduated compression tights for maintenance of lower limb muscle power after submaximal endurance running.

An Investigation of the Electrical Short Circuit Characteristics of Tin Whiskers

Science.gov (United States)

Courey, Karim J.

2008-01-01

Existing risk simulations make the assumption that when a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors, the result is an electrical short circuit. This conservative assumption is made because shorting is a random event that has a currently unknown probability associated with it. Due to contact resistance electrical shorts may not occur at lower voltage levels. In this experiment, we study the effect of varying voltage on the breakdown of the contact resistance which leads to a short circuit. From this data we can estimate the probability of an electrical short, as a function of voltage, given that a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors. Also, three tin whiskers grown from the same Space Shuttle Orbiter card guide used in the aforementioned experiment were cross-sectioned and studied using a focused ion beam (FIB). The rare polycrystalline structure seen in the FIB cross section was confirmed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The FIB was also used to cross section two card guides to facilitate the measurement of the grain size to determine that the tin plating on the card guides had a bright finish.

Long- and short-run price asymmetries and hysteresis in the Italian gasoline market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bagnai, Alberto; Mongeau Ospina, Christian Alexander

2015-01-01

Using monthly data from 1994 to 2013 we study the long-run relation of the pre-tax retail prices of gasoline with crude price and the nominal exchange rate. We find a strongly significant long-run relation. We then use the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model to assess the asymmetries on both the short- and long-run elasticities, as well as the presence of hysteresis in the pricing behaviour. The estimation results confirm the presence of asymmetry in the long-run elasticities, with significant differences between the crude price and the exchange rate, as well as the presence of hysteresis in the relation between the retail price of gasoline and crude oil price. - Highlights: • The pass-through of crude oil prices and exchange rate into gasoline prices is examined. •We use an extended NARDL model to test for asymmetric reactions and hysteresis. • Asymmetric pricing behaviour features only in the long run. • The sign of the asymmetry differs between exchange rate and crude price changes. • The results are robust to the inclusion of several variables usually related to asymmetry

The residential demand for electricity in Australia: an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayan, P.K.; Smyth, R.

2005-01-01

This paper reports estimates of the long- and short-run elasticities of residential demand for electricity in Australia using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration, within an autoregressive distributive lag framework. In the long run, we find that income and own price are the most important determinants of residential electricity demand, while temperature is significant some of the time and gas prices are insignificant. Our estimates of long-run income elasticity and price elasticity of demand are consistent with previous studies, although they are towards the lower end of existing estimates. As expected, the short-run elasticities are much smaller than the long-run elasticities, and the coefficients on the error-correction coefficients are small consistent with the fact that in the short-run energy appliances are fixed. (author)

Stochastic Optimal Wind Power Bidding Strategy in Short-Term Electricity Market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2012-01-01

Due to the fluctuating nature and non-perfect forecast of the wind power, the wind power owners are penalized for the imbalance costs of the regulation, when they trade wind power in the short-term liberalized electricity market. Therefore, in this paper a formulation of an imbalance cost...... minimization problem for trading wind power in the short-term electricity market is described, to help the wind power owners optimize their bidding strategy. Stochastic optimization and a Monte Carlo method are adopted to find the optimal bidding strategy for trading wind power in the short-term electricity...... market in order to deal with the uncertainty of the regulation price, the activated regulation of the power system and the forecasted wind power generation. The Danish short-term electricity market and a wind farm in western Denmark are chosen as study cases due to the high wind power penetration here...

Triceps surae short latency stretch reflexes contribute to ankle stiffness regulation during human running.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neil J Cronin

Full Text Available During human running, short latency stretch reflexes (SLRs are elicited in the triceps surae muscles, but the function of these responses is still a matter of controversy. As the SLR is primarily mediated by Ia afferent nerve fibres, various methods have been used to examine SLR function by selectively blocking the Ia pathway in seated, standing and walking paradigms, but stretch reflex function has not been examined in detail during running. The purpose of this study was to examine triceps surae SLR function at different running speeds using Achilles tendon vibration to modify SLR size. Ten healthy participants ran on an instrumented treadmill at speeds between 7 and 15 km/h under 2 Achilles tendon vibration conditions: no vibration and 90 Hz vibration. Surface EMG from the triceps surae and tibialis anterior muscles, and 3D lower limb kinematics and ground reaction forces were simultaneously collected. In response to vibration, the SLR was depressed in the triceps surae muscles at all speeds. This coincided with short-lasting yielding at the ankle joint at speeds between 7 and 12 km/h, suggesting that the SLR contributes to muscle stiffness regulation by minimising ankle yielding during the early contact phase of running. Furthermore, at the fastest speed of 15 km/h, the SLR was still depressed by vibration in all muscles but yielding was no longer evident. This finding suggests that the SLR has greater functional importance at slow to intermediate running speeds than at faster speeds.

Risks, Information and Short-Run Timber Supply

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesca Rinaldi

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Efforts to increase wood mobilization have highlighted the need to appraise drivers of short-run timber supply. The current study aims to shed further light on harvesting decisions of private forest owners, by investigating optimal harvesting under uncertainty, when timber revenues are invested on financial markets and uncertainty is mitigated by news releases. By distinguishing between aggregate economic risk and sector specific risks, the model studies in great detail optimal harvesting-investment decisions, with particular emphasis on the non-trivial transmission of risk on optimal harvesting, and on the way private forest owners react to news and information. The analysis of the role played by information in harvesting decisions is a novelty in forest economic theory. The presented model is highly relevant from a policy—information is a commonly used forest policy instrument—as well as a practical perspective, since the mechanism of risk transmission is at the basis of timber pricing.

Environmental and technology policy options in the electricity sector. Interactions and outcomes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, Carolyn; Newell, Richard G.; Preonas, Louis

2014-01-01

Myriad policy measures aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector, promote generation from renewable sources, and encourage energy conservation. To what extent do innovation and energy efficiency (EE) market failures justify additional interventions when a carbon price is in place? We extend the model of Fischer and Newell (2008) with advanced and conventional renewable energy technologies and short and long-run EE investments. We incorporate both knowledge spillovers and imperfections in the demand for energy efficiency. We conclude that some technology policies, particularly correcting R and D market failures, can be useful complements to emissions pricing, but ambitious renewable targets or subsidies seem unlikely to enhance welfare when placed alongside sufficient emissions pricing. The desirability of stringent EE policies is highly sensitive to the degree of undervaluation of EE by consumers, which also has implications for policies that tend to lower electricity prices. Even with multiple market failures, emissions pricing remains the single most cost-effective option for reducing emissions.

Environmental and technology policy options in the electricity sector. Interactions and outcomes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fischer, Carolyn [Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, DC (United States); Newell, Richard G. [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States); Preonas, Louis [California Univ., Berkeley, CA (United States); Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, DC (United States)

2014-04-15

Myriad policy measures aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector, promote generation from renewable sources, and encourage energy conservation. To what extent do innovation and energy efficiency (EE) market failures justify additional interventions when a carbon price is in place? We extend the model of Fischer and Newell (2008) with advanced and conventional renewable energy technologies and short and long-run EE investments. We incorporate both knowledge spillovers and imperfections in the demand for energy efficiency. We conclude that some technology policies, particularly correcting R and D market failures, can be useful complements to emissions pricing, but ambitious renewable targets or subsidies seem unlikely to enhance welfare when placed alongside sufficient emissions pricing. The desirability of stringent EE policies is highly sensitive to the degree of undervaluation of EE by consumers, which also has implications for policies that tend to lower electricity prices. Even with multiple market failures, emissions pricing remains the single most cost-effective option for reducing emissions.

Influence of short-term unweighing and reloading on running kinetics and muscle activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Sainton, Patrick; Nicol, Caroline; Cabri, Jan; Barthelemy-Montfort, Joëlle; Berton, Eric; Chavet, Pascale

2015-05-01

In running, body weight reduction is reported to result in decreased lower limb muscle activity with no change in the global activation pattern (Liebenberg et al. in J Sports Sci 29:207-214). Our study examined the acute effects on running mechanics and lower limb muscle activity of short-term unweighing and reloading conditions while running on a treadmill with a lower body positive pressure (LBPP) device. Eleven healthy males performed two randomized running series of 9 min at preferred speed. Each series included three successive running conditions of 3 min [at 100 % body weight (BW), 60 or 80 % BW, and 100 % BW]. Vertical ground reaction force and center of mass accelerations were analyzed together with surface EMG activity recorded from six major muscles of the left lower limb for the first and last 30 s of each running condition. Effort sensation and mean heart rate were also recorded. In both running series, the unloaded running pattern was characterized by a lower step frequency (due to increased flight time with no change in contact time), lower impact and active force peaks, and also by reduced loading rate and push-off impulse. Amplitude of muscle activity overall decreased, but pre-contact and braking phase extensor muscle activity did not change, whereas it was reduced during the subsequent push-off phase. The combined neuro-mechanical changes suggest that LBPP technology provides runners with an efficient support during the stride. The after-effects recorded after reloading highlight the fact that 3 min of unweighing may be sufficient for updating the running pattern.

The dynamics of sectoral electricity demand for a panel of US states: New evidence on the consumption–growth nexus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saunoris, James W.; Sheridan, Brandon J.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we use a panel of the 48 contiguous US states over the period 1970–2009 to examine the dynamics of electricity demand in addressing the four hypotheses set forth in the literature: growth, conservation, neutrality, and feedback. In doing so we provide both short-run and long-run elasticity estimates for electricity demand. Recent developments in nonstationary panel estimation techniques allow for heterogeneity in the coefficients while examining the direction of causality among electricity consumption, electricity prices, and income growth. In addition to the full sample, we also disaggregate the sample into three sectors: commercial, industrial, and residential. The short-run results provide evidence in favor of the growth hypothesis for the aggregate sample, as well as for the industrial sector. For the residential and commercial sectors, the conservation hypothesis is supported. Long-run results favor the conservation hypothesis. To ascertain differences in electricity demand relating to electricity intensity we also examine states based on their efficiency in electricity consumption. Overall, the results yield in favor of the growth hypothesis for low intensity states and conservation hypothesis for high intensity states. - Highlights: • We use dynamic panel techniques to model electricity demand by sector for US states. • The conservation hypothesis is supported in the long run; short-run results are mixed. • The conservation hypothesis is supported in the high-electricity-intensity subsample. • The growth hypothesis is supported in the low-electricity-intensity subsample. • Policies aimed at energy conservation should be long-run in nature

Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal using cointegration and causality approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shahbaz, Muhammad; Tang, Chor Foon; Shahbaz Shabbir, Muhammad

2011-01-01

The aim of this paper is to re-examine the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal using the cointegration and Granger causality frameworks. This study covers the sample period from 1971 to 2009. We examine the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship using the bounds testing approach to cointegration within the Unrestricted Error-Correction Model (UECM). Moreover, we examine the direction of causality between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal using the Granger causality test within the Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM). As a summary of the empirical findings, we find that electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal are cointegrated and there is bi-directional Granger causality between the three variables in the long-run. With the exception of the Granger causality between electricity consumption and economic growth, the rest of the variables are also bi-directional Granger causality in the short-run. Furthermore, we find that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption, but no evidence of reversal causality. - Highlights: → We re-examine the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal. → The electricity consumption and economic growth is causing each other in the long-run. → In the short-run, economic growth Granger-cause electricity consumption, but no evidence of reversal causality. → Energy conservation policy will deteriorate the process of economic growth in the long-run. → Portugal should increase investment on R and D to design new energy savings technology.

Electricity consumption in G7 countries: A panel cointegration analysis of residential demand elasticities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Smyth, Russell; Prasad, Arti

2007-01-01

This article applies recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques to estimate the long-run and short-run income and price elasticities for residential demand for electricity in G7 countries. The panel results indicate that in the long-run residential demand for electricity is price elastic and income inelastic. The study concludes that from an environmental perspective there is potential to use pricing policies in the G7 countries to curtail residential electricity demand, and thus curb carbon emissions, in the long run. (author)

Short- and long-run elasticities of gasoline demand in India. An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramanathan, R.

1999-01-01

In developing countries like India, consumption of petroleum products has implications on its balance of payments, economic growth and fiscal deficit. Gasoline is one of the prime petroleum products. In this paper, the relationship between gasoline demand, national income and price of gasoline is empirically examined using cointegration and error correction techniques. The time frame of the analysis is from 1972-1973 to 1993-1994. It has been found that gasoline demand is likely to increase significantly for a given increase in the gross domestic product. The increase will be larger in the long-run (2.682) than in the short-run (1.178). Gasoline demand is relatively inelastic to price changes, both in the long and short terms. The error correction model has shown that gasoline demand adjusts to their respective long-run equilibrium at a relatively slow rate, with about 28% of adjustment taking place in the first year. 23 refs

Short-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenfeng; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Wang, Yubin Mao; Wang, Jiangbo; He, Dandan

2018-04-01

Short-term electricity demand forecasting is the basic work to ensure safe operation of the power system. In this paper, a practical economic electricity transmission model (EETM) is built. With the intelligent adaptive modeling capabilities of Prognoz Platform 7.2, the econometric model consists of three industrial added value and income levels is firstly built, the electricity demand transmission model is also built. By multiple regression, moving averages and seasonal decomposition, the problem of multiple correlations between variables is effectively overcome in EETM. The validity of EETM is proved by comparison with the actual value of Henan Province. Finally, EETM model is used to forecast the electricity consumption of the 1-4 quarter of 2018.

30 CFR 75.518 - Electric equipment and circuits; overload and short circuit protection.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... short circuit protection. 75.518 Section 75.518 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION... Equipment-General § 75.518 Electric equipment and circuits; overload and short circuit protection... installed so as to protect all electric equipment and circuits against short circuit and overloads. Three...

Estimating the Probability of Electrical Short Circuits from Tin Whiskers. Part 2

Science.gov (United States)

Courey, Karim J.; Asfour, Shihab S.; Onar, Arzu; Bayliss, Jon A.; Ludwig, Larry L.; Wright, Maria C.

2010-01-01

To comply with lead-free legislation, many manufacturers have converted from tin-lead to pure tin finishes of electronic components. However, pure tin finishes have a greater propensity to grow tin whiskers than tin-lead finishes. Since tin whiskers present an electrical short circuit hazard in electronic components, simulations have been developed to quantify the risk of said short circuits occurring. Existing risk simulations make the assumption that when a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors, the result is an electrical short circuit. This conservative assumption is made because shorting is a random event that had an unknown probability associated with it. Note however that due to contact resistance electrical shorts may not occur at lower voltage levels. In our first article we developed an empirical probability model for tin whisker shorting. In this paper, we develop a more comprehensive empirical model using a refined experiment with a larger sample size, in which we studied the effect of varying voltage on the breakdown of the contact resistance which leads to a short circuit. From the resulting data we estimated the probability distribution of an electrical short, as a function of voltage. In addition, the unexpected polycrystalline structure seen in the focused ion beam (FIB) cross section in the first experiment was confirmed in this experiment using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The FIB was also used to cross section two card guides to facilitate the measurement of the grain size of each card guide's tin plating to determine its finish .

THE SHORT- AND LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP IN INDONESIAN ISLAMIC STOCK RETURNS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Shabri Abdul Majid

2016-02-01

Full Text Available This paper aims at empirically examining the short-run and long-run causal relationship between the Indonesian Islamic stock returns and selected macroeconomic variables namely inflation, money supply and exchange rate during the pre- and post- 2008 global financial turmoil period from 2002 until 2007 and from 2008 until 2013 by using monthly data. The methodology used in this study is time series econometric techniques i.e. the unit root test, cointegration test, error correction model (ECM and variance decompositions (VDCs. The findings showed that there is cointegration between Islamic stock prices and macroeconomic variables. The results suggest that inflation, money supply, and exchange rate significantly affected the Islamic stock returns in Indonesia. These variables should be taken into account by the policy makers as the important policy instruments in stabilizing Islamic stock markets in the country.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i1.1863

Electricity consumption-growth nexus. The case of Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chandran, V.G.R.; Sharma, Susan; Madhavan, Karunagaran

2010-01-01

The goal of this paper is to model the relationship between electricity consumption and real gross domestic product (GDP) for Malaysia in a bivariate and multivariate framework. We use time series data for the period 1971-2003 and apply the bounds testing approach to search for a long-run relationship. Our results reveal that electricity consumption, real GDP and price share a long-run relationship. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimates of long-run elasticity of electricity consumption on GDP are found to be around 0.7 and statistically significant. Finally, in the short-run, the results of the causality test show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth in Malaysia. From these findings we conclude that Malaysia is an energy-dependent country, leading us to draw some policy implications. This paper adds support and validity, thus reducing the policy makers concern on the ambiguity of the electricity and growth nexus in Malaysia. (author)

Electricity consumption-growth nexus. The case of Malaysia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chandran, V.G.R. [Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia); Department of Economics, Faculty of Business Management, University Technology MARA, 40540 Shah Alam (Malaysia); Sharma, Susan [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University, Melbourne (Australia); Madhavan, Karunagaran [Department of Economics, Faculty of Business Management, University Technology MARA, 40540 Shah Alam (Malaysia)

2010-01-15

The goal of this paper is to model the relationship between electricity consumption and real gross domestic product (GDP) for Malaysia in a bivariate and multivariate framework. We use time series data for the period 1971-2003 and apply the bounds testing approach to search for a long-run relationship. Our results reveal that electricity consumption, real GDP and price share a long-run relationship. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimates of long-run elasticity of electricity consumption on GDP are found to be around 0.7 and statistically significant. Finally, in the short-run, the results of the causality test show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth in Malaysia. From these findings we conclude that Malaysia is an energy-dependent country, leading us to draw some policy implications. This paper adds support and validity, thus reducing the policy makers concern on the ambiguity of the electricity and growth nexus in Malaysia. (author)

The pricing of long and short run variance and correlation risk in stock returns

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cosemans, M.

2011-01-01

This paper studies the pricing of long and short run variance and correlation risk. The predictive power of the market variance risk premium for returns is driven by the correlation risk premium and the systematic part of individual variance premia. Furthermore, I find that aggregate volatility risk

Running Away from Home: A Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Risk Factors and Young Adult Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Joan S.; Edelen, Maria Orlando; Ellickson, Phyllis L.; Klein, David J.

2011-01-01

Little is known about the adolescent risk factors and young adult health-related outcomes associated with running away from home. We examined these correlates of running away using longitudinal data from 4,329 youth (48% female, 85% white) who were followed from Grade 9 to age 21. Nearly 14% of the sample reported running away in the past year at…

The relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 Asian countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, S.-T.; Kuo, H.-I; Chen, C.-C.

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study is to estimate the relationships between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 newly industrializing and developing Asian countries using both single data sets and panel data procedures. The empirical results from single data set indicate that the causality directions in the 10 Asian countries are mixed while there is a uni-directional short-run causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption and a bi-directional long-run causality between electricity consumption and economic growth if the panel data procedure is implemented. These empirical findings imply that electricity conservation policies through both rationalizing the electricity supply efficiency improvement to avoid the wastage of electricity and managing demand side to reduce the electricity consumption without affecting the end-user benefits could be initiated without adverse effect on economic growth. The findings on the long-run relationship indicate that a sufficiently large supply of electricity can ensure that a higher level of economic growth

All-sky search for short gravitational-wave bursts in the first Advanced LIGO run

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Phythian-Adams, A.T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.T.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Ananyeva, A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Appert, S.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Avila-Alvarez, A.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, R.D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Beer, C.; Bejger, M.; Belahcene, I.; Belgin, M.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Billman, C. R.; Birch, M.J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackman, J.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, A.L.S.; Bock, O.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, J.G.; Bohe, A.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Broida, J. E.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, A.D.; Brown, D.; Brown, N. M.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Bustillo, J. Calderon; Callister, T. A.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Canepa, M.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, H.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Diaz, J. Casanueva; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglia, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Baiardi, L. Cerboni; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, D. S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y; Cheng, H. -P.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Chmiel, T.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Qian; Chua, A. J. K.; Chua, S. E.; Chung, E.S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Cocchieri, C.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P. -F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Conti, L.; Cooper, S. J.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, A.C.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J. -P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Covas, P. B.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cullen, T. J.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, A.L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dasgupta, A.; Costa, C. F. Da Silva; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Davis, D.; Daw, E. J.; Day, B.; Day, R.; De, S.; Debra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De laurentis, M.; Deleglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.A.; Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devenson, J.; Devine, R. C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Diaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Giovanni, M.G.; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Doctor, Z.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorrington, I.; Douglas, R.; Alvarez, M. Dovale; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H. -B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Eisenstein, R. A.; Essick, R. C.; Etienne, Z.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.C.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.M.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E. J.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Galiana, A. Fernandez; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M; Fong, H.; Forsyth, S. S.; Fournier, J. -D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fries, E. M.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H.; Gadre, B. U.; Gaebel, S. M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gaur, G.; Gayathri, V.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghonge, S.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.P.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; Gonzalez, R.G.; Castro, J. M. Gonzalez; Gopakumar, A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Lee-Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.M.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Buffoni-Hall, R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.L.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hanson, P.J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C. -J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Henry, J.A.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J. -M.; Isi, M.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jimenez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W.; Jones, I.D.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Junker, J.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.H.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kefelian, F.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kennedy, R.E.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan., S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J. C.; Kim, Whansun; Kim, W.; Kim, Y.M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kirchhoff, R.; Kissel, J. S.; Klein, B.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koch, P.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Kraemer, H.C.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Krolak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Landry, M.; Lang, R. N.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lanza, R. K.; Lartaux-Vollard, A.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C.H.; Lee, K.H.; Lee, M.H.; Lee, K.; Lehmann, J.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Liu, J.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lombardi, A. L.; London, L. T.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lovelace, G.; Luck, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macfoy, S.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magana-Sandoval, F.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Marka, S.; Marka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martynov, D. V.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGrath Hoareau, C.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mendoza-Gandara, D.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, F.A.; Miller, B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B.C.; Moore, J.C.; Moraru, D.; Gutierrez Moreno, M.; Morriss, S. R.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, S.D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Muniz, E. A. M.; Murray, P.G.; Mytidis, A.; Napier, K.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Gutierrez-Neri, M.; Nery, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newport, J. M.; Newton-Howes, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Noack, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M. B.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pace, A. E.; Page, J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.S; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Castro-Perez, J.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poe, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Pratt, J. W. W.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Puerner, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Qiu, S.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Rhoades, E.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, D.M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosinska, D.; Rowan, S.; Ruediger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.A.; Sachdev, P.S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sampson, L. M.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Scheuer, J.; Schmidt, E.; Schmidt, J; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.B.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schoenbeck, A.; Schreiber, K.E.C.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwalbe, S. G.; Scott, J.; Scott, M.S.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Setyawati, Y.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T. J.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, António Dias da; Singer, A; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, B.; Smith, J.R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, A. P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stevenson-Moore, P.; Stone, J.R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; Strigin, S. E.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepanczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.D.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tapai, M.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, W.R.; Theeg, T.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thrane, E.; Tippens, T.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torrie, C. I.; Torya, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifiro, D.; Trinastic, J.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Tso, R.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.G.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.F.F.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Varma, V.; Vass, S.; Vasuth, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P.J.; Venkateswara, K.; Venugopalan, G.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Vicere, A.; Viets, A. D.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J. -Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, MT; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Watchi, J.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L. -W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.M.; Wessels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Whittle, C.; Williams, D.; Williams, D.R.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Worden, J.; Wright, J.L.; Wu, D.S.; Wu, G.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, Hang; Yu, Haocun; Yvert, M.; Zadrozny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J. -P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, S.J.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.

2017-01-01

We present the results from an all-sky search for short-duration gravitational waves in the data of the first run of the Advanced LIGO detectors between September 2015 and January 2016. The search algorithms use minimal assumptions on the signal morphology, so they are sensitive to a wide range of

Transmission pricing in privately-owned electricity grids: An illustration from the Argentine electricity pool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdala, Manuel A.

2008-01-01

The Argentine electricity reform of 1992 offers an interesting example of decentralized transmission pricing arrangements within a competitive system. This paper is a shortened version of an original analysis made in 1994 of the regulation of the Argentine transmission system, with emphasis on investment cost allocation rules. To make up for the limitation of short-run marginal cost (SRMC) pricing, incentives on service quality were put in place, including penalties for lack of line availability. The mechanism for capacity expansion, based on ad-hoc rules for allocations of investment costs, had the potential to produce non-optimal investment outcomes, as such rules ignored beneficiaries on the demand side. For fine tuning of this system, I proposed an alternative rule based on traditional welfare analysis that broadens the universe of identified beneficiaries, and thus can be expected to produce a fairer outcome on investment cost allocation, reducing the potential risks of non-optimal investment. A brief postscript comments on the paper from the perspective of 2007. (author)

Electricity supply, employment and real GDP in India: evidence from cointegration and Granger-causality tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, Sajal

2009-01-01

This study probes nexus between electricity supply, employment and real GDP for India within a multivariate framework using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration. Long-run equilibrium relationship has been established among these variables for the time span 1970-71 to 2005-06. The study further establishes long- and short-run Granger causality running from real GDP and electricity supply to employment without any feedback effect. Thus, growth in real GDP and electricity supply are responsible for the high level of employment in India. The absence of causality running from electricity supply to real GDP implies that electricity demand and supply side measures can be adopted to reduce the wastage of electricity, which would not affect future economic growth of India.

Interactions between electricity generation sources and economic activity in Greece: A VECM approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marques, António Cardoso; Fuinhas, José Alberto; Menegaki, Angeliki N.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Adjustment dynamics in electricity sources and industrial production are examined. • The Johansen’s method with a conditional VEC model was pursued. • Results confirm endogeneity among variables. • Cointegration relationships for fossil and for renewables sources were founded. • Renewables are less affected by disturbance in economic activity. - Abstract: The interactions between electricity generation sources and industrial production in Greece were analysed from August 2004 to October 2013. Greece has been subject to a tough economic adjustment under external financial assistance guidelines. In the meantime, the country has remained committed to international agreements concerning the use of renewables. The variables interact with each other, and this endogeneity has been analysed using a VECM model. A short-run, causal relationship from conventional fossil sources to economic growth, was proved. However, there is no evidence of causal relationships from renewable electricity to economic growth, either in the short- or long-run. Only economic growth gives rise to renewable electricity, whether in the short- or long-run. A fresh insight on the current state of dynamics between electricity sources within an electricity generation system, is thus added to the literature. These findings will inform energy policymakers in designing policies both to encourage the incorporation of national technology into renewables and to reduce electricity consumption without hampering economic growth

CO2 emissions and economic activity: Short- and long-run economic determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Fredrik N.G.; Karpestam, Peter

2013-01-01

We analyze the short-term and the long-term determinants of energy intensity, carbon intensity and scale effects for eight developed economies and two emerging economies from 1973 to 2007. Our results show that there is a difference between the short-term and the long-term results and that climate policy are more likely to affect emission over the long-term than over the short-term. Climate policies should therefore be aimed at a time horizon of at least 8 years and year-on-year changes in emissions contains little information about the trend path of emissions. In the long-run capital accumulation is the main driver of emissions. Productivity growth reduces the energy intensity while the real oil price reduces both the energy intensity and the carbon intensity. The real oil price effect suggests that a global carbon tax is an important policy tool to reduce emissions, but our results also suggest that a carbon tax is likely to be insufficient decouple emission from economic growth. Such a decoupling is likely to require a structural transformation of the economy. The key policy challenge is thus to build new economic structures where investments in green technologies are more profitable. - Highlights: • We model determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity. • Using band spectrum regressions, we separate between short and long run effects. • Different economic variables affect emission in the short and long run. • CO 2 reducing policies should have a long run horizon of (at least 8 years). • A low carbon society requires a structural transformation of the economy

Decrease in Ground-Run Distance of Small Airplanes by Applying Electrically-Driven Wheels

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Hiroshi; Nishizawa, Akira

A new takeoff method for small airplanes was proposed. Ground-roll performance of an airplane driven by electrically-powered wheels was experimentally and computationally studied. The experiments verified that the ground-run distance was decreased by half with a combination of the powered driven wheels and propeller without increase of energy consumption during the ground-roll. The computational analysis showed the ground-run distance of the wheel-driven aircraft was independent of the motor power when the motor capability exceeded the friction between tires and ground. Furthermore, the distance was minimized when the angle of attack was set to the value so that the wing generated negative lift.

Emission intensity in New Zealand manufacturing and the short-run impacts of emissions pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartleet, Matthew; Iyer, Kris; Numan-Parsons, Elisabeth

2010-01-01

This paper reports the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of the New Zealand (NZ) manufacturing sector at a combination of industry group and class levels (sub-sectors). The short-run impacts of a price on emissions are investigated with a focus on exporting activities. Sub-sectors that could be materially impacted by an expected range of emissions prices accounted for slightly over 9% of national gross domestic product. It is found that there is much variability of emission intensity within manufacturing and even within sub-sectors. An assessment of trade intensities further indicates that several emissions-intensive activities are also export-intensive. These activities are at most risk of losing competitiveness in the short-run if they are subjected to a price on GHG emissions that their competitors in other countries are not. Emissions reduction policies must take account of trade competitiveness imperatives if NZ is to meet its international GHG emissions target while maintaining manufacturing sector competitiveness. - Research Highlights: →Estimates initial short-term competitiveness impacts of ETS on NZ manufacturing. →Materiality of impacts determined based on firm level emissions and export intensity. →Results suggest that food processing sub-sectors are likely to be most impacted. →Iron and steel processing, and paper and pulp manufacture are impacted as well. →Cumulative GDP share of materially affected sub-sectors slightly over 9%.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market: A neural network approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catalao, J.P.S.; Mariano, S.J.P.S.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Ferreira, L.A.F.M.

2007-01-01

This paper proposes a neural network approach for forecasting short-term electricity prices. Almost until the end of last century, electricity supply was considered a public service and any price forecasting which was undertaken tended to be over the longer term, concerning future fuel prices and technical improvements. Nowadays, short-term forecasts have become increasingly important since the rise of the competitive electricity markets. In this new competitive framework, short-term price forecasting is required by producers and consumers to derive their bidding strategies to the electricity market. Accurate forecasting tools are essential for producers to maximize their profits, avowing profit losses over the misjudgement of future price movements, and for consumers to maximize their utilities. A three-layered feedforward neural network, trained by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, is used for forecasting next-week electricity prices. We evaluate the accuracy of the price forecasting attained with the proposed neural network approach, reporting the results from the electricity markets of mainland Spain and California. (author)

Voluntary resistance running with short distance enhances spatial memory related to hippocampal BDNF signaling.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Min Chul; Okamoto, Masahiro; Liu, Yu Fan; Inoue, Koshiro; Matsui, Takashi; Nogami, Haruo; Soya, Hideaki

2012-10-15

Although voluntary running has beneficial effects on hippocampal cognitive functions if done abundantly, it is still uncertain whether resistance running would be the same. For this purpose, voluntary resistance wheel running (RWR) with a load is a suitable model, since it allows increased work levels and resultant muscular adaptation in fast-twitch muscle. Here, we examined whether RWR would have potential effects on hippocampal cognitive functions with enhanced hippocampal brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), as does wheel running without a load (WR). Ten-week-old male Wistar rats were assigned randomly to sedentary (Sed), WR, and RWR (to a maximum load of 30% of body weight) groups for 4 wk. We found that in RWR, work levels increased with load, but running distance decreased by about half, which elicited muscular adaptation for fast-twitch plantaris muscle without causing any negative stress effects. Both RWR and WR led to improved spatial learning and memory as well as gene expressions of hippocampal BDNF signaling-related molecules. RWR increased hippocampal BDNF, tyrosine-related kinase B (TrkB), and cAMP response element-binding (CREB) protein levels, whereas WR increased only BDNF. With both exercise groups, there were correlations between spatial memory and BDNF protein (r = 0.41), p-CREB protein (r = 0.44), and work levels (r = 0.77). These results suggest that RWR plays a beneficial role in hippocampus-related cognitive functions associated with hippocampal BDNF signaling, even with short distances, and that work levels rather than running distance are more determinant of exercise-induced beneficial effects in wheel running with and without a load.

ON THE DEMAND DYNAMICS OF ELECTRICITY IN GHANA: DO EXOGENOUS NON-ECONOMIC VARIABLES COUNT?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ishmael Ackah

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to identify and quantify the effect of endogenous and exogenous economic factors on electricity demand in Ghana. The Structural Time Series Model is employed due to its ability to capture exogenous non-economic variables. The findings reveal that education has significant effect on electricity consumption in both the short and the long run. Education has inverse relationship with electricity consumption implying that the more consumers are educated, the less electricity they consume. The study also reveals that price changes have less impact on electricity consumption in the short run and that efficiency in electricity consumption has improved since 1971 and will continue for the next twenty years. The study recommends that more public education should be carried out to enhance energy conservation and also, realistic prices should be charge for electricity consumption to allow private investment into the sector.

End-shorting and electric field in edge plasmas with application to field-reversed configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steinhauer, Loren C.

2002-01-01

The shorting of open field lines where they intersect external boundaries strongly modifies the transverse electric field all along the field lines. The modified electric field is found by an extension of the familiar Boltzmann relation for the electric potential. This leads to a prediction of the electric drift. Flow generation by electrical shorting is applied here to three aspects of elongated field-reversed configurations: plasma rotation rate; the particle-loss spin-up mechanism; and the sustainability of the rotating magnetic field current drive method

The effect of changes in health sector resources on infant mortality in the short-run and the long-run: a longitudinal econometric analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Farahani, Mansour; Subramanian, S V; Canning, David

2009-06-01

While countries with higher levels of human resources for health typically have better population health, the evidence that increases in the level of human resources for health leads to improvements in population health is limited. We use a dynamic regression model to obtain estimates of both the short-run and long-term effects of changes in physicians per capita, our measure of health system resources, on infant mortality. Using a dataset of 99 countries at 5-year intervals from 1960-2000, we estimate that increasing the number of physicians by one per 1000 population (roughly a doubling of current levels of provision) decreases the infant mortality rate by 15% within 5 years and by 45% in the long-run with half the long-run gain being achieved in 15 years. We conclude that the long-run effects of heath system resources are substantially larger than previously estimated. Our results suggest, however, that countries that have delayed action on the Millennium Development Goal of reducing infant and child mortality rate by two-thirds by 2015 (relative to 1990) may have difficulty meeting this goal even if they rapidly increase resources now.

Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Seung-Hoon

2005-01-01

This paper investigates the short- and long-run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in Korea by using the co-integration and error-correction models. It employs annual data covering the period 1970-2002. The overall results show that there exists bi-directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption

An Empirical Model for Estimating the Probability of Electrical Short Circuits from Tin Whiskers-Part I

Science.gov (United States)

Courey, Karim; Wright, Clara; Asfour, Shihab; Bayliss, Jon; Ludwig, Larry

2008-01-01

Existing risk simulations make the assumption that when a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors, the result is an electrical short circuit. This conservative assumption is made because shorting is a random event that has a currently unknown probability associated with it. Due to contact resistance, electrical shorts may not occur at lower voltage levels. In this experiment, we study the effect of varying voltage on the breakdown of the contact resistance which leads to a short circuit. From this data, we can estimate the probability of an electrical short, as a function of voltage, given that a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors. In addition, three tin whiskers grown from the same Space Shuttle Orbiter card guide used in the aforementioned experiment were cross sectioned and studied using a focused ion beam (FIB).

Catheter ablation for the treatment of electrical storm in patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillators: short- and long-term outcomes in a prospective single-center study.

Science.gov (United States)

Carbucicchio, Corrado; Santamaria, Matteo; Trevisi, Nicola; Maccabelli, Giuseppe; Giraldi, Francesco; Fassini, Gaetano; Riva, Stefania; Moltrasio, Massimo; Cireddu, Manuela; Veglia, Fabrizio; Della Bella, Paolo

2008-01-29

Electrical storm (ES) caused by recurrent episodes of ventricular tachycardia (VT) can cause sudden death in patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillators and adversely affects prognosis in survivors. Catheter ablation has been proposed for treating ES, but its long-term effect in a large population has never been verified. Ninety-five consecutive patients with coronary artery disease (72 patients), idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (10 patients), and arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy (13 patients) undergoing catheter ablation for drug-refractory ES were prospectively evaluated. Short-term efficacy was defined by a complete protocol of programmed electric stimulation and by in-hospital outcome; long-term analysis addressed ES recurrence, cardiac mortality, and VT recurrence. Pleomorphic/nontolerated VTs required electroanatomic and noncontact mapping in 48 and 22 patients, respectively, and percutaneous cardiopulmonary support in 10 patients. An epicardial approach was used in 10 patients. After 1 to 3 procedures, induction of any clinical VT(s) by programmed electrical stimulation was prevented in 85 patients (89%). ES was acutely suppressed in all patients; a minimum period of 7 days with stable rhythm was required before hospital discharge. At a median follow-up of 22 months (range, 1 to 43 months), 87 patients (92%) were free of ES and 63 patients (66%) were free of VT recurrence. Eight of 10 patients with persistent inducibility of clinical VT(s) had ES recurrence; 4 of them died suddenly despite appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator intervention. All together, 11 of 95 patients (12%) died of cardiac-related reasons. In the group of patients presenting with all clinical VTs acutely abolished, no ES recurrence was documented, and cardiac mortality was significantly lower compared with the group of patients showing > or = 1 clinical VT still inducible after catheter ablation. Advanced strategies of catheter ablation

Short-term changes in running mechanics and foot strike pattern after introduction to minimalistic footwear.

Science.gov (United States)

Willson, John D; Bjorhus, Jordan S; Williams, D S Blaise; Butler, Robert J; Porcari, John P; Kernozek, Thomas W

2014-01-01

Minimalistic footwear has garnered widespread interest in the running community, based largely on the premise that the footwear may reduce certain running-related injury risk factors through adaptations in running mechanics and foot strike pattern. To examine short-term adaptations in running mechanics among runners who typically run in conventional cushioned heel running shoes as they transition to minimalistic footwear. A 2-week, prospective, observational study. A movement science laboratory. Nineteen female runners with a rear foot strike (RFS) pattern who usually train in conventional running shoes. The participants trained for 20 minutes, 3 times per week for 2 weeks by using minimalistic footwear. Three-dimensional lower extremity running mechanics were analyzed before and after this 2-week period. Hip, knee, and ankle joint kinematics at initial contact; step length; stance time; peak ankle joint moment and joint work; impact peak; vertical ground reaction force loading rate; and foot strike pattern preference were evaluated before and after the intervention. The knee flexion angle at initial contact increased 3.8° (P < .01), but the ankle and hip flexion angles at initial contact did not change after training. No changes in ankle joint kinetics or running temporospatial parameters were observed. The majority of participants (71%), before the intervention, demonstrated an RFS pattern while running in minimalistic footwear. The proportion of runners with an RFS pattern did not decrease after 2 weeks (P = .25). Those runners who chose an RFS pattern in minimalistic shoes experienced a vertical loading rate that was 3 times greater than those who chose to run with a non-RFS pattern. Few systematic changes in running mechanics were observed among participants after 2 weeks of training in minimalistic footwear. The majority of the participants continued to use an RFS pattern after training in minimalistic footwear, and these participants experienced higher

Simulation of demand side participation in Spanish short term electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valencia-Salazar, I.; Alvarez, C.; Escriva-Escriva, G.; Alcazar-Ortega, M.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → Benefits from customer active participation can be obtained with a proper generation of bids and offers. → Simulation of Spanish customers' participation is shown in daily, intra-daily and balancing markets. → Market efficiency and economics profits arise in balancing markets by using customer load reductions. → Real market prices and real customers' consumptions profiles are used in the simulations. -- Abstract: Demand response resources management is one of the most investigated solutions oriented to improve the efficiency in electricity markets. In this paper, the capability of customers to participate in short term markets is analyzed. An available methodology to analyze the daily and monthly energy consumptions of large customers is used to create energy offers and bids. This allows customers to participate in energy markets in order to buy, as first step, the usual electricity consumption and, additionally, to offer demand reductions in the short term electricity markets. Additionally, this paper shows the customer potential to participate in the Spanish electricity markets.

Is trade openness good for environment in South Korea? The role of non-fossil electricity consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shun

2018-04-01

The paper investigates the linkage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, per capita real output, share of non-fossil electricity consumption, and trade openness in South Korea from 1971 to 2013. The empirical results indicate that the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is supported by autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) test. Both short- and long-run estimates indicate that increasing non-fossil electricity consumption can mitigate environmental degradation, and increasing trade aggravates carbon dioxide emissions. By Granger causality, long-run causalities are found in both equations of CO 2 emissions and trade openness, as well as exports and imports. In the short-run, evidence indicates feedback linkage between output and trade, unidirectional linkages from trade to emissions, from emissions to output, and from output to non-fossil electricity use. Therefore, South Korea should strengthen the sustainable economy, consume clean energy, and develop green trade.

Maternal haemoglobin and short-term neonatal outcome in preterm neonates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elodie Savajols

Full Text Available To determine whether there is a significant association between maternal haemoglobin measured before delivery and short-term neonatal outcome in very preterm neonates.We included prospectively all live births occurring from 25 to 32+6 weeks of gestation in a tertiary care centre between January 1(st 2009 and December 31(st 2011. Outborn infants and infants presenting with lethal malformations were excluded. Three hundred and thirty-nine mothers and 409 infants met the inclusion criteria. For each mother-infant pair a prospective record of epidemiologic data was performed and maternal haemoglobin concentration recorded within 24 hours before delivery was retrospectively researched. Maternal haemoglobin was divided into quartiles with the second and the third one regarded as reference as they were composed of normal haemoglobin values. Short-term outcome was defined as poor in case of death during hospital stay and/or grades III/IV intraventricular haemorrhage and/or periventricular leukomalacia and/or necessity of ventriculoperitoneal shunt.The global rate of poor short-term neonatal outcome was 11.4% and was significantly associated with low maternal haemoglobin values. This association remained significant after adjustment for antenatal corticosteroids therapy, gestational age, parity, mechanism of preterm birth, mode of delivery and birth weight (aOR = 2.97 CI 95% [1.36-6.47]. There was no relation between short-term neonatal outcome and high maternal haemoglobin concentration values.We show that low maternal haemoglobin concentration at delivery is an independent risk factor for poor short-term neonatal outcome in very preterm neonates. This study is one of the first to show such an association within the preterm population.

Nuclear Power Plants in a Competitive Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jankauskas, V.

2002-01-01

Electricity demand is growing in the world by an average rate of 3% and, according to the International Energy Agency, is going to keep this pace of growth for the 1st quarter of the 21st century. At the same time, the role of the nuclear in the world energy mix is diminishing, and in 2020 only 9% of the world electricity will be produced at the nuclear plants versus 17% in 2000. The main reasons for the nuclear power diminishing share in the world market are not environmental or safety problems, as one may assume, but technical and economical. Long construction time, high capital cost, huge liabilities connected with the spent nuclear fuel and radioactive waste treatment, storage and final disposal are the main factors restricting the further growth of the nuclear power. Nevertheless, in the liberalized markets (U.K., Germany, Scandinavian countries) nuclear power plants are operating rather successfully. In a short run nuclear plants may become very competitive as they have very low short-run marginal costs, but in the long run they may become very in competitive. The Ignalina NPP plays the dominant ro]e in the Lithuanian electricity market, producing more than 75% of the total domestic electricity. It produces the cheapest electricity in Lithuania, mostly due to its higher availability, than the thermal power plants. The price of electricity sold by Ignalina is also lower as it does not cover all costs connected with the future decommissioning of the plant, spent fuel storage and final disposal. If at least part of this cost were included into the selling price, Ignalina might become highly competitive in a liberalised electricity market. As the Lithuanian Electricity law requires to deregulate electricity. generation prices, these prices should be set by the market. (author)

Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Federico Divina

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The ability to predict short-term electric energy demand would provide several benefits, both at the economic and environmental level. For example, it would allow for an efficient use of resources in order to face the actual demand, reducing the costs associated to the production as well as the emission of CO 2 . To this aim, in this paper we propose a strategy based on ensemble learning in order to tackle the short-term load forecasting problem. In particular, our approach is based on a stacking ensemble learning scheme, where the predictions produced by three base learning methods are used by a top level method in order to produce final predictions. We tested the proposed scheme on a dataset reporting the energy consumption in Spain over more than nine years. The obtained experimental results show that an approach for short-term electricity consumption forecasting based on ensemble learning can help in combining predictions produced by weaker learning methods in order to obtain superior results. In particular, the system produces a lower error with respect to the existing state-of-the art techniques used on the same dataset. More importantly, this case study has shown that using an ensemble scheme can achieve very accurate predictions, and thus that it is a suitable approach for addressing the short-term load forecasting problem.

Germany's nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.

2015-01-01

This paper examines the potential implications of national policies that lead to a sudden increase of wind power in the electricity mix for interconnected European electricity markets. More specifically, it examines market integration before and after the closures of eight nuclear power plants that occurred within a period of a few months in Germany during 2011. The short- and- long run interrelationships of daily electricity spot prices, from November 2009 to October 2012, in: APX-ENDEX, BELPEX, EPEX-DE, EPEX-FR, NORDPOOL, OMEL and SWISSIX; and wind power in the German system are analysed. Two MGARCH (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models with dynamic correlations are used to assess spot market behaviour in the short run, and a fractional cointegration analysis is conducted to investigate changes in the long-run behaviour of electricity spot prices. Results show: positive time-varying correlations between spot prices in markets with substantial shared interconnector capacity; a negative association between wind power penetration in Germany and electricity spot prices in the German and neighbouring markets; and, for most markets, a decreasing speed in mean reversion. -- Highlights: •Associations between spot prices and wind power are time-varying. •Greater spot price and volatility associations across markets are observed. •In the long run, the German market is less integrated with neighbouring markets. •Policies on a local electricity mix can affect spot prices in connected markets

Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kucukali, Serhat; Baris, Kemal

2010-01-01

This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970-2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning.

Process for protecting bonded components from plating shorts

Science.gov (United States)

Tarte, Lisa A.; Bonde, Wayne L.; Carey, Paul G.; Contolini, Robert J.; McCarthy, Anthony M.

2000-01-01

A method which protects the region between a component and the substrate onto which the components is bonded using an electrically insulating fillet of photoresist. The fillet protects the regions from subsequent plating with metal and therefore shorting the plated conductors which run down the sides of the component and onto the substrate.

Short-sale Constraints and Credit Runs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Venter, Gyuri

), creditors with high private signals are more lenient to roll over debt, and a bank with lower asset quality remains solvent. This leads to higher allocative efficiency in the real economy. My result thus implies that the decrease in average informativeness due to short-sale constraints can be more than......This paper studies how short-sale constraints affect the informational efficiency of market prices and the link between prices and economic activity. I show that under short-sale constraints security prices contain less information. However, short-sale constraints increase the informativeness...... the price of an asset the bank holds. I show that short-selling constraints in the financial market lead to the revival of self-fulfilling beliefs about the beliefs and actions of others, and create multiple equilibria. In the equilibrium where agents rely more on public information (i.e., the price...

Are There Long-Run Effects of the Minimum Wage?

Science.gov (United States)

Sorkin, Isaac

2015-04-01

An empirical consensus suggests that there are small employment effects of minimum wage increases. This paper argues that these are short-run elasticities. Long-run elasticities, which may differ from short-run elasticities, are policy relevant. This paper develops a dynamic industry equilibrium model of labor demand. The model makes two points. First, long-run regressions have been misinterpreted because even if the short- and long-run employment elasticities differ, standard methods would not detect a difference using US variation. Second, the model offers a reconciliation of the small estimated short-run employment effects with the commonly found pass-through of minimum wage increases to product prices.

Deregulating electricity in the American states

Science.gov (United States)

Terbush, Thomas Lee

This dissertation develops nine stylized facts that summarize the major consequences of deregulation and tests these against recent experience in the electric utility industry. The experience of the electric utility industry matches the predictions of the stylized facts, except in one instance: although real electricity prices fell between 1982 and 1999, real prices fell less in states that deregulated. This dissertation presents three possible explanations for this discrepancy. First, through dynamic efficiency, consumers may benefit in the long run through lower rates and better service in the electricity market, or deregulation may be a public good that benefits electricity consumers through economy-wide improvements in efficiency. Second, higher prices may be a long-run outcome as predicted by the theory of the second best. Or third, both regulators and utilities may use deregulation to generate new rents. Because the original rents from regulation had dissipated, new rents could be generated under deregulation by making consumers pay off the utilities and then creating more new rents through re-regulation of the industry. Close examination tends to support the first and third explanations, although the second-best explanation cannot yet be ruled out completely. Higher prices appear to be a transitional phenomenon, resulting from a short-term payoff from consumers to incumbent utilities that was required to move deregulation forward. This payoff occurs as residential and commercial consumers bear relatively higher rates over three to five years to compensate utilities for stranded costs, investments thought to be unrecoverable under full competition. All states are benefiting from deregulation, but states that are deregulating are benefiting less while stranded costs are being recovered. This dissertation also examines California electricity deregulation and finds that the experience in California conforms with to the stylized facts, and that certain structural

Information communication technology and electricity consumption in emerging economies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadorsky, Perry

2012-01-01

This study examines the impact of information communication technology (ICT) on electricity consumption in emerging economies. The empirical results, obtained from dynamic panel demand models, show a positive and statistically significant relationship between ICT and electricity consumption when ICT is measured using internet connections, mobile phones or the number of PCs. Long-run ICT elasticities are smaller than income elasticities but because ICT growth rates are so much higher than income growth rates, the impact of ICT on electricity demand is greater than the impact of income on electricity demand. One implication of these results is that policies designed to close the “digital divide” between developed and developing economics by increasing the adoption of ICT in developing countries are put at odds with energy policies to reduce GHG emissions. - Highlights: ► ICT usage is growing rapidly in developing countries. ► ICT usage affects electricity consumption. ► Three different measures of ICT are examined. ► Short-run and long-run ICT elasticities are calculated. ► Implications for energy policy are discussed.

European Short-term Electricity Market Designs under High Penetration of Wind Power

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chaves Avila, J.P.

2014-01-01

The EU has ambitious policies for decarbonization of the electricity sector. Due to recent technological developments, wind power already represents a significant share of the generation mix in some European countries. As a result, short-term electricity markets and balancing arrangements must be

Social cognitive markers of short-term clinical outcome in first-episode psychosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Montreuil, Tina; Bodnar, Michael; Bertrand, Marie-Claude; Malla, Ashok K; Joober, Ridha; Lepage, Martin

2010-07-01

In psychotic disorders, impairments in cognition have been associated with both clinical and functional outcome, while deficits in social cognition have been associated with functional outcome. As an extension to a recent report on neurocognition and short-term clinical outcome in first-episode psychosis (FEP), the current study explored whether social cognitive deficits could also identify poor short-term clinical outcome among FEP patients. We defined the social-cognition domain based on the scores from the Hinting Task and the Four Factor Tests of Social Intelligence. Data were collected in 45 FEP patients and 26 healthy controls. The patients were divided into good- and poor-outcome groups based on clinical data at six months following initiation of treatment. Social cognition was compared among 27 poor-outcome, 18 good-outcome, and 26 healthy-control participants. Outcome groups significantly differed in the social cognition domain (z-scores: poor outcome=-2.0 [SD=1.4]; good outcome=-1.0 [SD=1.0]; p=0.005), with both groups scoring significantly lower than the control group (psocial cognition appears to be compromised in all FEP patients compared to healthy controls. More interestingly, significant differences in social cognitive impairments exist between good and poor short-term clinical outcome groups, with the largest effect found in the Cartoon Predictions subtest.

Histopathologic characteristics and short-term outcomes of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Introduction: Colorectal carcinoma (CRC) is generally a disease of persons older than 40 years. Concerning younger patients, controversies still exist regarding features and prognosis of CRC. We performed this study to characterise CRC in young patients (≤40 years) as well as to evaluate short-term outcome in ...

30 CFR 77.506 - Electric equipment and circuits; overload and short-circuit protection.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... short-circuit protection. 77.506 Section 77.506 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION... circuits; overload and short-circuit protection. Automatic circuit-breaking devices or fuses of the correct type and capacity shall be installed so as to protect all electric equipment and circuits against short...

Lower-limb dynamics and clinical outcomes for habitually shod runners who transition to barefoot running.

Science.gov (United States)

Hashish, Rami; Samarawickrame, Sachithra D; Sigward, Susan; Azen, Stanley P; Salem, George J

2018-01-01

Recent investigations have revealed lower vertical loading rates and knee energy absorption amongst experienced barefoot runners relative to those who rear-foot strike (RFS). Although this has led to an adoption of barefoot running amongst many recreational shoe runners, recent investigations indicate that the experienced barefoot pattern is not immediately realized. Therefore, the purpose this investigation was to quantify changes in lower-extremity dynamics and clinical outcomes measures for habitually shod runners who perform a transition to barefoot running. We examined lower-extremity dynamics and clinical outcomes for 26 RFS shod runners who performed an 8-10 week transition to barefoot running. Runners were evaluated at the University of Southern California's Musculoskeletal Biomechanics Research Laboratory. Foot-strike patterns, vertical load rates, and joint energetics were evaluated before and after the transition using inverse dynamics. Clinical assessments were conducted throughout the transition by two licensed clinicians. Eighteen of the 26 runners successfully completed the transition: 7 maintained a RFS, 8 adopted a mid-foot strike (MFS), and 3 adopted a forefoot strike (FFS) during novice barefoot running. Following the transition, novice MFS/FFS runners often demonstrated reversions in strike-patterns and associated reductions in ankle energetics. We report no change in loading rates and knee energy absorption across transition time points. Importantly, there were no adverse events other than transient pain and soreness. These findings indicate that runners do not innately adopt the biomechanical characteristics thought to lower injury risk in-response to an uninstructed barefoot running transition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Wages of Failure: New Evidence on School Retention and Long-Run Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Babcock, Philip; Bedard, Kelly

2011-01-01

By estimating differences in long-run education and labor market outcomes for cohorts of students exposed to differing state-level primary school retention rates, this article estimates the effects of retention on all students in a cohort, retained and promoted. We find that a 1 standard deviation increase in early grade retention is associated…

Short-term treatment outcomes of children starting antiretroviral ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Short-term treatment outcomes of children starting antiretroviral therapy in the intensive care unit, general medical wards and outpatient HIV clinics at Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa: A retrospective cohort study.

Operational experience of the upgraded LHC injection kicker magnets during Run 2 and future plans

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, M. J.; Adraktas, A.; Bregliozzi, G.; Goddard, B.; Ducimetière, L.; Salvant, B.; Sestak, J.; Vega Cid, L.; Weterings, W.; Vallgren, C. Yin

2017-07-01

During Run 1 of the LHC, one of the injection kicker magnets caused occasional operational delays due to beam induced heating with high bunch intensity and short bunch lengths. In addition, there were also sporadic issues with vacuum activity and electrical flashover of the injection kickers. An extensive program of studies was launched and significant upgrades were carried out during Long Shutdown 1 (LS 1). These upgrades included a new design of beam screen to reduce both beam coupling impedance of the kicker magnet and the electric field associated with the screen conductors, hence decreasing the probability of electrical breakdown in this region. This paper presents operational experience of the injection kicker magnets during the first years of Run 2 of the LHC, including a discussion of faults and kicker magnet issues that limited LHC operation. In addition, in light of these issues, plans for further upgrades are briefly discussed.

Generation Capacity Investments in Electricity Markets : Perfect Competition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gürkan, G.; Ozdemir, O.; Smeers, Y.

2013-01-01

Abstract: In competitive electricity markets, markets designs based on power exchanges where supply bidding (barring demand-side bidding) is at the sole short run marginal cost may not guarantee resource adequacy. As alternative ways to remedy the resource adequacy problem, we focus on three

The economic benefit of short-term forecasting for wind energy in the UK electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barthelmie, R.J.; Murray, F.; Pryor, S.C.

2008-01-01

In the UK market, the total price of renewable electricity is made up of the Renewables Obligation Certificate and the price achieved for the electricity. Accurate forecasting improves the price if electricity is traded via the power exchange. In order to understand the size of wind farm for which short-term forecasting becomes economically viable, we develop a model for wind energy. Simulations were carried out for 2003 electricity prices for different forecast accuracies and strategies. The results indicate that it is possible to increase the price obtained by around pound 5/MWh which is about 14% of the electricity price in 2003 and about 6% of the total price. We show that the economic benefit of using short-term forecasting is also dependant on the accuracy and cost of purchasing the forecast. As the amount of wind energy requiring integration into the grid increases, short-term forecasting becomes more important to both wind farm owners and the transmission/distribution operators. (author)

A dispatch based pricing model for the New Zealand electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ring, B.J.; Read, E.G.

1996-01-01

Work undertaken for the New Zealand transmission grid is described. Prices derived from an observed system dispatch can be used in the short-run coordination of a competitive wholesale electricity market. These prices vary across space and time, reflecting differences in marginal costs and changing demand. Markets for emergency reserve generating capacity can be integrated with a market for power. Used in conjunction with longer term contracts, such short-run prices have the potential to allow competitive power system operation without significant loss of coordination efficiencies. 2 figs., 26 refs

Quality of rearing practices as predictor of short-term outcome in adolescent anorexia nervosa.

Science.gov (United States)

Castro, J; Toro, J; Cruz, M

2000-01-01

Studies of family relationships in anorexia nervosa have produced conflicting results. Some authors claim that family factors are related to short-term outcomes. Perceived rearing practices, as measured by the EMBU (Egna Minnen Betraffande Uppfostran: 'My memories of Upbringing') were examined in a sample (N = 158) of adolescents with anorexia nervosa and compared with the perceptions of adolescents (N = 159) from the general population. A further comparison was made between the groups of patients with good and bad short-term outcomes. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive value of different variables on short-term outcome. Overall, small differences were observed in the perceptions of rearing practices as expressed by the controls and the anorexic patients. Patients with bad short-term outcome perceived more rejection and control-overprotection from both parents than those with good outcome. In the logistic regression analysis only Rejection from father and the EAT (Eating Attitudes Test) total score gave independent prediction of treatment response. Taken as a whole, these results do not support the idea of altered rearing practices in anorexic patients, at least in young patients with a short evolution of the disease. Perceived rearing practices, especially 'rejection', appear to have an appreciable effect on the short-term outcome.

The effect of low birth weight on height, weight and behavioral outcomes in the medium-run

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Datta Gupta, Nabanita; Deding, Mette; Lausten, Mette

2013-01-01

as physical growth at ages 6 months, 3½, 7½ and 11 years using data from the Danish Longitudinal Survey of Children. Observing the same children at different points in time enabled us to chart the evolution of anthropometric and behavioral deficits among children born with low birth weight and helped......A number of studies have documented negative long term effects of low birth weight. Yet, not much is known about the dynamics of the process leading to adverse health and educational outcomes in the long run. While previous studies focusing mainly on LBW effects on physical growth and cognitive...... outcomes have found effects of the same size at both school age and young adulthood, others have found a diminishing negative effect over time. The purpose of this paper was to bring new evidence to this issue by analyzing the medium run effects of low birth weight on child behavioral outcomes as well...

[Electric short-circuit incident observed with "Upsher" laryngoscopes].

Science.gov (United States)

Tritsch, L; Vailly, B

2006-01-01

We observed an electrical short-circuit between a fasten screw of the printed circuit and the handle of an Upsher universal laryngoscope (serial number UQ1). The isolating Silicone layer was broken above the screw. This isolation defect was found all over our Upsher laryngoscopes of the UQ1 series. No doubt that if accumulators were used instead of batteries, emitted heat would be in largest amount and perhaps dangerous.

Does urbanization affect energy intensities across provinces in China?Long-run elasticities estimation using dynamic panels with heterogeneous slopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Ben

2015-01-01

Although there has been extensive debate in the literature that addresses the impact of urbanization on total energy use, the relative magnitude of each impact channel has not been empirically examined and urbanization's effects on energy transition dynamics in China remains unknown. Using panel datasets at the provincial level from 1986 to 2011, this paper employs dynamic models to investigate both the long-run and short-run elasticities of urbanization on energy intensities and the most significant impact channel is identified. Coal intensity and electricity intensity are also modeled to reveal energy transition dynamics driven by urbanization. A set of newly developed regression techniques, namely well-performed common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) and augmented mean group (AMG) estimators, are used to treat residual cross-sectional dependence, nonstationary residuals, and unlikely-to-hold homogeneous slope assumptions. The results obtained verify that the net effects of urbanization on overall energy intensity and electricity intensity are statistically positive, with long-run elasticities of 0.14% to 0.37% and 0.23% to 0.29%, respectively, whereas China's urbanization does not significantly increase coal intensity. The fact that short-run elasticities account for a majority of corresponding long-run values indicates that the short-run effect, that is, indirect energy use induced by urban infrastructures is the most significant impact channel of urbanization on energy use in China. An energy transition from high-pollution coal to clean electricity is also present in China, although the fundamental transition to renewable energy is still in its infancy. From a regional perspective, urbanization exerts asymmetric impacts on provincial energy use so that energy policies associated with urbanization should be province-specific. The findings also illustrate that for a panel dataset on regional dimension within large and fast-growing economies such

Studies in the economics of electricity and heating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Roland; Bohman, M.; Taylor, L.

1992-01-01

This study deals with problems of pricing and capacity planning of electricity and to some extent, heat, as well as with the evaluation of research and development projects. A critical review is given of the discussion in the economic literature concerning whether the price for public utilities should be based on short-run (SRMC) or long-run marginal costs (LRMC). We find it advisable to dispense with the LRMC concept altogether and rely on pricing based on SRMC. We deal with the design of such prices, how they depend on peak and off-peak loads, locational differences in production, transmission and distribution costs etc., particularly when both demand and supply are random. Then follows a critical analysis of the high-voltage as well as low-voltage electricity tariffs used in Sweden. The coordinated pricing system used among power producers in the Nordic countries is found to be an almost ideal application of the theory. The problem of deriving an optimal price structure for cogenerated electricity and heat used for district heating in local communities is analyzed together with an attempt to measure short-run welfare gains of switching from the existing price structure in a stylized local community to the optimal price structure. A critical review presents concepts and methods used to assess the social costs of unsupplied electricity. Methods for dimensioning production capacity for electricity energy in an efficient way, and the problems of dimensioning production capacity for electricity in a socially optimal way are discussed. We then go on to examine the investment criteria used by the Swedish power industry. We also analyze criteria for appraisal of energy R and D projects from a governments perspective and present a model based on sequential decision making for evaluating uncertain energy R and D projects. (au) (138 refs., 45 figs. 18 tabs.)

Has renewable energy induced competitive behavior in the Spanish electricity market?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciarreta, Aitor; Espinosa, Maria Paz; Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina

2017-01-01

Recent energy policy has favored a massive introduction of Renewable Energy Sources on electricity markets, which has greatly impacted their performance. First, the electricity price has decreased as a consequence of the so-called merit-order effect. Another relevant effect is associated to the intermittent nature of Renewable Energy, which has increased the cost of ancillary services. A third and important aspect, less addressed in the literature, is the induced change in the strategic behavior of the conventional electricity producers. In principle, the entry of new generators in a concentrated market would make it more competitive and change the strategic behavior of the incumbents. We test this hypothesis for the Spanish wholesale market. While we find no significant change in behavior for Nuclear, Hydropower and Coal, a change is observed in Combined Cycle bidding strategies after the entry of renewable generators. Our analysis shows that the massive entry of Renewable Energy Sources made other generators' behavior more competitive in the short run, but the effect was not persistent. - Highlights: • The indirect effects of RES affect prices in electricity markets. • RES induced little change in Nuclear, Coal and Hydropower generation. • Combined Cycle bidding strategies have evolved to adapt to the introduction of RES. • RES made Combined Cycle's behavior more competitive in the short run. • The competitive effect induced by RES is not persistent in the long run.

Econometric analysis of Australian emissions markets and electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cotton, Deborah; De Mello, Lurion

2014-01-01

Emissions trading schemes aim to reduce the emissions in certain pollutants using a market based scheme where participants can buy and sell permits for these emissions. This paper analyses the efficiency of the two largest schemes in Australia, the NSW Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme and the Mandatory Renewable Energy Trading Scheme, through their effect on the electricity prices from 2004 to 2010. We use a long run structural modelling technique for the first time on this market. It provides a practical long-run approach to structural relationships which enable the determination of the effectiveness of the theoretical expectations of these schemes. The generalised forecast error variance decomposition analysis finds that both schemes' emissions prices have little effect on electricity prices. Generalised impulse response function analysis support this finding indicating that when shocks are applied to electricity by the two schemes it returns to equilibrium very quickly. This indicates that these schemes are not having the effect anticipated in their legislation. - Highlights: • We analyse two emissions trading schemes in Australia. • We test for their effect on wholesale electricity prices. • The test uses generalised forecast error variance decomposition analysis. • The tests find long run relationship between the variables in both the samples. • The short run-dynamics indicate that they play a minimal role in electricity prices

Developing an Empirical Model for Estimating the Probability of Electrical Short Circuits from Tin Whiskers. Part 2

Science.gov (United States)

Courey, Karim J.; Asfour, Shihab S.; Onar, Arzu; Bayliss, Jon A.; Ludwig, Larry L.; Wright, Maria C.

2009-01-01

To comply with lead-free legislation, many manufacturers have converted from tin-lead to pure tin finishes of electronic components. However, pure tin finishes have a greater propensity to grow tin whiskers than tin-lead finishes. Since tin whiskers present an electrical short circuit hazard in electronic components, simulations have been developed to quantify the risk of said short circuits occurring. Existing risk simulations make the assumption that when a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors, the result is an electrical short circuit. This conservative assumption is made because shorting is a random event that had an unknown probability associated with it. Note however that due to contact resistance electrical shorts may not occur at lower voltage levels. In our first article we developed an empirical probability model for tin whisker shorting. In this paper, we develop a more comprehensive empirical model using a refined experiment with a larger sample size, in which we studied the effect of varying voltage on the breakdown of the contact resistance which leads to a short circuit. From the resulting data we estimated the probability distribution of an electrical short, as a function of voltage. In addition, the unexpected polycrystalline structure seen in the focused ion beam (FIB) cross section in the first experiment was confirmed in this experiment using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The FIB was also used to cross section two card guides to facilitate the measurement of the grain size of each card guide's tin plating to determine its finish.

Hourly price elasticity pattern of electricity demand in the German day-ahead market

OpenAIRE

Knaut, Andreas; Paulus, Simon

2016-01-01

System security in electricity markets relies crucially on the interaction between demand and supply over time. However, research on electricity markets has been mainly focusing on the supply side arguing that demand is rather inelastic. Assuming perfectly inelastic demand might lead to delusive statements regarding the price formation in electricity markets. In this article we quantify the short-run price elasticity of electricity demand in the German day-ahead market and show that demand is...

A pseudo-panel data model of household electricity demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, Jean-Thomas; Bolduc, Denis [GREEN, Department of Economics, Universite Laval, Quebec (Canada); Yameogo, Nadege-Desiree [Analysis Group Inc., 1080 Beaver Hill, Suite 1810, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

2011-01-15

We study the dynamic behaviour of household electricity consumption on the basis of four large independent surveys conducted in the province of Quebec from 1989 to 2002. The latter region displays some rather unique features such as the very extensive use of electricity for space heating in a cold climate and the wide range of energy sources used to meet space heating requirements. We adopt approach to create 25 cohorts of households that form a pseudo-panel. The cohorts have on average 131 households. The model error terms allow for group heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. Short-run and long-run own and cross-price elasticities are statistically significant. Electricity and natural gas are estimated to be substitutes while electricity and fuel oil are complements, as it may occur in the Quebec context. The estimate of the income elasticity is not significant. Comparisons with related studies are provided. (author)

Short-Term Load Forecast in Electric Energy System in Bulgaria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Asenova

2010-01-01

Full Text Available As the accuracy of the electricity load forecast is crucial in providing better cost effective risk management plans, this paper proposes a Short Term Electricity Load Forecast (STLF model with high forecasting accuracy. Two kind of neural networks, Multilayer Perceptron network model and Radial Basis Function network model, are presented and compared using the mean absolute percentage error. The data used in the models are electricity load historical data. Even though the very good performance of the used model for the load data, weather parameters, especially the temperature, take important part for the energy predicting which is taken into account in this paper. A comparative evaluation between a traditional statistical method and artificial neural networks is presented.

Short-term outcome of patients with closed comminuted femoral ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Short-term outcome of patients with closed comminuted femoral shaft fracture treated with locking intramedullary sign nail at Muhimbili Orthopaedic Institute in Tanzania. Billy T. Haonga, Felix S. Mrita, Edmundo E. Ndalama, Jackline E. Makupa ...

Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munoz, M. Pilar; Dickey, David A.

2009-01-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationships between Spanish electricity spot prices and the US dollar/Euro (USD/Euro) exchange rate during the period 2005-2007, taking into account the study of the association between dollar and oil prices, in order to better understand the evolution of the former over time. The first finding in this study is that Spanish electricity spots prices, the USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices are cointegrated; therefore there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the three variables. Short-run relationships have been detected between oil prices and Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate in the sense that Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate are affected by oil prices in the short run. There is a transmission of volatility between USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices to Spanish electricity prices; so although Spanish electricity prices are not affected in level by the movements of USD/Euro exchange rate, they are in volatility. In this kind of scenario the conclusions confirm that for countries so dependent on external causes as Spain, one possible solution for guarantying the energy security would be the promotion of the renewable energies. Therefore we cannot ignore the impact in the internal expenses of the cost of installation and generation of green energies so there must be a balance between the increase in renewables and the reasonable market price of the electricity. (author)

Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kucukali, Serhat [Civil Engineering Department, Zonguldak Karaelmas University, Incivez 67100, Zonguldak (Turkey); Baris, Kemal [Mining Engineering Department, Zonguldak Karaelmas University, Incivez 67100, Zonguldak (Turkey)

2010-05-15

This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970-2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning. (author)

System effects of nuclear energy and renewables in low-carbon electricity Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keppler, J.H.; Gameron, R.; Cometto, M.

2012-01-01

Electricity produced by variable renewable energies significantly affects the economics of dispatchable power generators, in particular those of nuclear power, both in the short run and the long run; the outcome of these competing factors will depend on the amount of variable renewables being introduced, local conditions and the level of carbon prices. An assessment of grid-level system costs (including the costs for grid connection, extension and reinforcement, as well as the added costs for balancing and back-up, but excluding the financial costs of intermittency and the impacts on security of supply, the environment, siting and safety), reveals a considerable difference between those of dispatchable technologies and those of variable renewables. Using a common methodology and a broad array of country-specific data, the grid-level system costs for Finland, France, Germany, the Republic of Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States were calculated for nuclear, coal, gas, onshore wind, offshore wind and solar PV both at 10 pc and 30 pc penetration levels. Variable renewables are creating a market environment in which dispatchable technologies can no longer finance themselves through revenues in 'energy only' wholesale markets; this has serious implications for the security of electricity supplies. Four main policy recommendations are proposed

Performance of fuzzy approach in Malaysia short-term electricity load forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Mansor, Rosnalini; Zulkifli, Malina; Yusof, Muhammad Mat; Ismail, Mohd Isfahani; Ismail, Suzilah; Yin, Yip Chee

2014-12-01

Many activities such as economic, education and manafucturing would paralyse with limited supply of electricity but surplus contribute to high operating cost. Therefore electricity load forecasting is important in order to avoid shortage or excess. Previous finding showed festive celebration has effect on short-term electricity load forecasting. Being a multi culture country Malaysia has many major festive celebrations such as Eidul Fitri, Chinese New Year and Deepavali but they are moving holidays due to non-fixed dates on the Gregorian calendar. This study emphasis on the performance of fuzzy approach in forecasting electricity load when considering the presence of moving holidays. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was estimated using simulated data by including model simplification concept (manual or automatic), day types (weekdays or weekend), public holidays and lags of electricity load. The result indicated that day types, public holidays and several lags of electricity load were significant in the model. Overall, model simplification improves fuzzy performance due to less variables and rules.

Short-term electric load forecasting using computational intelligence methods

OpenAIRE

Jurado, Sergio; Peralta, J.; Nebot, Àngela; Mugica, Francisco; Cortez, Paulo

2013-01-01

Accurate time series forecasting is a key issue to support individual and organizational decision making. In this paper, we introduce several methods for short-term electric load forecasting. All the presented methods stem from computational intelligence techniques: Random Forest, Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Networks, Evolutionary Support Vector Machines and Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning. The performance of the suggested methods is experimentally justified with several experiments carried out...

Generation of short electrical pulses based on bipolar transistorsny

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Gerding

2004-01-01

Full Text Available A system for the generation of short electrical pulses based on the minority carrier charge storage and the step recovery effect of bipolar transistors is presented. Electrical pulses of about 90 ps up to 800 ps duration are generated with a maximum amplitude of approximately 7V at 50Ω. The bipolar transistor is driven into saturation and the base-collector and base-emitter junctions become forward biased. The resulting fast switch-off edge of the transistor’s output signal is the basis for the pulse generation. The fast switching of the transistor occurs as a result of the minority carriers that have been injected and stored across the base-collector junction under forward bias conditions. If the saturated transistor is suddenly reverse biased the pn-junction will appear as a low impedance until the stored charge is depleted. Then the impedance will suddenly increase to its normal high value and the flow of current through the junction will turn to zero, abruptly. A differentiation of the output signal of the transistor results in two short pulses with opposite polarities. The differentiating circuit is implemented by a transmission line network, which mainly acts as a high pass filter. Both the transistor technology (pnp or npn and the phase of the transfer function of the differentating circuit influence the polarity of the output pulses. The pulse duration depends on the transistor parameters as well as on the transfer function of the pulse shaping network. This way of generating short electrical pulses is a new alternative for conventional comb generators based on steprecovery diodes (SRD. Due to the three-terminal structure of the transistor the isolation problem between the input and the output signal of the transistor network is drastically simplified. Furthermore the transistor is an active element in contrast to a SRD, so that its current gain can be used to minimize the power of the driving signal.

Briquetting of titanium shavings with using of short electrical pulses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abramova, K.B.; Samujlov, S.D.; Filin, Yu.A.

1998-01-01

It is proposed and tested a new technology of briquetting of metallic shavings. The technology includes pressing of shavings with comparatively low pressure and processing it by means of short pulse of high density electrical current. Strength of the briquette arrears as a result of the sport electric welding of the contacts between the shaving particles. The technology permits: to produce firm briquettes from the shavings or other scrap of any metal or alloy, for example from titanium; to produce briquettes practically of any porosity; to decrease the compression and abandon heating almost for high-strength alloy in comparison with existing methods [ru

A Computer Program for Short Circuit Analysis of Electric Power ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Short Circuit Analysis Program (SCAP) is to be used to assess the composite effects of unbalanced and balanced faults on the overall reliability of electric power system. The program uses the symmetrical components method to compute all phase and sequence quantities for any bus or branch of a given power network ...

Running and Osteoarthritis: Does Recreational or Competitive Running Increase the Risk?

Science.gov (United States)

2017-06-01

Exercise, like running, is good for overall health and, specifically, our hearts, lungs, muscles, bones, and brains. However, some people are concerned about the impact of running on longterm joint health. Does running lead to higher rates of arthritis in knees and hips? While many researchers find that running protects bone health, others are concerned that this exercise poses a high risk for age-related changes to hips and knees. A study published in the June 2017 issue of JOSPT suggests that the difference in these outcomes depends on the frequency and intensity of running. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2017;47(6):391. doi:10.2519/jospt.2017.0505.

Linear and non-linear impact of Internet usage and financial deepening on electricity consumption for Turkey: empirical evidence from asymmetric causality.

Science.gov (United States)

Faisal, Faisal; Tursoy, Turgut; Berk, Niyazi

2018-04-01

This study investigates the relationship between Internet usage, financial development, economic growth, capital and electricity consumption using quarterly data from 1993Q1 to 2014Q4. The integration order of the series is analysed using the structural break unit root test. The ARDL bounds test for cointegration in addition to the Bayer-Hanck (2013) combined cointegration test is applied to analyse the existence of cointegration among the variables. The study found strong evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables. The long-run results under the ARDL framework confirm the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between financial development and electricity consumption, not only in the long-run, but also in the short-run. The study also confirms the existence of a U-shaped relationship between Internet usage and electricity consumption; however, the effect is insignificant. Additionally, the influence of trade, capital and economic growth is examined in both the long run and short run (ARDL-ECM). Finally, the results of asymmetric causality suggest a positive shock in electricity consumption that has a positive causal impact on Internet usage. The authors recommend that the Turkish Government should direct financial institutions to moderate the investment in the ICT sector by advancing credits at lower cost for purchasing energy-efficient technologies. In doing so, the Turkish Government can increase productivity in order to achieve sustainable growth, while simultaneously reducing emissions to improve environmental quality.

Performance of batteries for electric vehicles on short and longer term

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gerssen - Gondelach, Sarah|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/355262436; Faaij, André P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

2012-01-01

In this work, the prospects of available and new battery technologies for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are examined. Five selected battery technologies are assessed on battery performance and cost in the short, medium and long term. Driving cycle simulations are carried out to assess the

Willingness-to-pay for steelhead trout fishing: Implications of two-step consumer decisions with short-run endowments

Science.gov (United States)

McKean, John R.; Johnson, Donn; Taylor, R. Garth

2010-09-01

Choice of the appropriate model of economic behavior is important for the measurement of nonmarket demand and benefits. Several travel cost demand model specifications are currently in use. Uncertainty exists over the efficacy of these approaches, and more theoretical and empirical study is warranted. Thus travel cost models with differing assumptions about labor markets and consumer behavior were applied to estimate the demand for steelhead trout sportfishing on an unimpounded reach of the Snake River near Lewiston, Idaho. We introduce a modified two-step decision model that incorporates endogenous time value using a latent index variable approach. The focus is on the importance of distinguishing between short-run and long-run consumer decision variables in a consistent manner. A modified Barnett two-step decision model was found superior to other models tested.

Hybrid ARIMAX quantile regression method for forecasting short term electricity consumption in east java

Science.gov (United States)

Prastuti, M.; Suhartono; Salehah, NA

2018-04-01

The need for energy supply, especially for electricity in Indonesia has been increasing in the last past years. Furthermore, the high electricity usage by people at different times leads to the occurrence of heteroscedasticity issue. Estimate the electricity supply that could fulfilled the community’s need is very important, but the heteroscedasticity issue often made electricity forecasting hard to be done. An accurate forecast of electricity consumptions is one of the key challenges for energy provider to make better resources and service planning and also take control actions in order to balance the electricity supply and demand for community. In this paper, hybrid ARIMAX Quantile Regression (ARIMAX-QR) approach was proposed to predict the short-term electricity consumption in East Java. This method will also be compared to time series regression using RMSE, MAPE, and MdAPE criteria. The data used in this research was the electricity consumption per half-an-hour data during the period of September 2015 to April 2016. The results show that the proposed approach can be a competitive alternative to forecast short-term electricity in East Java. ARIMAX-QR using lag values and dummy variables as predictors yield more accurate prediction in both in-sample and out-sample data. Moreover, both time series regression and ARIMAX-QR methods with addition of lag values as predictor could capture accurately the patterns in the data. Hence, it produces better predictions compared to the models that not use additional lag variables.

Neonatal Pulmonary MRI of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia Predicts Short-term Clinical Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Higano, Nara S; Spielberg, David R; Fleck, Robert J; Schapiro, Andrew H; Walkup, Laura L; Hahn, Andrew D; Tkach, Jean A; Kingma, Paul S; Merhar, Stephanie L; Fain, Sean B; Woods, Jason C

2018-05-23

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a serious neonatal pulmonary condition associated with premature birth, but the underlying parenchymal disease and trajectory are poorly characterized. The current NICHD/NHLBI definition of BPD severity is based on degree of prematurity and extent of oxygen requirement. However, no clear link exists between initial diagnosis and clinical outcomes. We hypothesized that magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of structural parenchymal abnormalities will correlate with NICHD-defined BPD disease severity and predict short-term respiratory outcomes. Forty-two neonates (20 severe BPD, 6 moderate, 7 mild, 9 non-BPD controls; 40±3 weeks post-menstrual age) underwent quiet-breathing structural pulmonary MRI (ultrashort echo-time and gradient echo) in a NICU-sited, neonatal-sized 1.5T scanner, without sedation or respiratory support unless already clinically prescribed. Disease severity was scored independently by two radiologists. Mean scores were compared to clinical severity and short-term respiratory outcomes. Outcomes were predicted using univariate and multivariable models including clinical data and scores. MRI scores significantly correlated with severities and predicted respiratory support at NICU discharge (P<0.0001). In multivariable models, MRI scores were by far the strongest predictor of respiratory support duration over clinical data, including birth weight and gestational age. Notably, NICHD severity level was not predictive of discharge support. Quiet-breathing neonatal pulmonary MRI can independently assess structural abnormalities of BPD, describe disease severity, and predict short-term outcomes more accurately than any individual standard clinical measure. Importantly, this non-ionizing technique can be implemented to phenotype disease and has potential to serially assess efficacy of individualized therapies.

Ventilatory threshold during incremental running can be estimated using EMG shorts.

Science.gov (United States)

Tikkanen, Olli; Hu, Min; Vilavuo, Toivo; Tolvanen, Pekka; Cheng, Sulin; Finni, Taija

2012-04-01

The present study examined whether shorts with textile electromyographic (EMG) electrodes can be used to detect second ventilatory threshold (V(T2)) during incremental treadmill running. Thirteen recreationally active (REC) and eight endurance athletes were measured for EMG, heart rate, blood lactate and respiratory gases during VO(2max) test (3 min ramps, 1 km·h(-1) increments). V(T)(2), onset of blood lactate accumulation (OBLA) and EMG threshold (EMG(T)) were determined. In athletes, OBLA occurred at 56 ± 6 mL·kg(-1)·min(-1), V(T2) occurred at 59 ± 6 mL·kg(-1)·min(-1), and EMG(T) at 62 ± 6 mL·kg(-1)·min(-1) without significant differences between methods (analysis of variance: ANOVA). In REC participants, OBLA occurred at 40 ± 10 mL·kg(-1)·min(-1), V(T2) occurred at 43 ± 7 mL·kg(-1)·min(-1), and EMG(T) at 41 ± 9 mL·kg(-1)·min(-1) without significant differences between methods (ANOVA). For the entire group, correlation between EMG(T) and V(T2) was 0.86 (P < 0.001) and 0.84 (P < 0.001) between EMG(T) and OBLA. Limits of agreement between EMG(T) and V(T2) were narrower in athletes than in REC participants. Thus, it is concluded that estimation of V(T2) using EMG(T) in athletes is more valid than in REC participants. In practice, experienced runners could use online feedback from EMG garments to monitor whether their running intensity is near V(T2). © 2012 Institute of Physics and Engineering in Medicine

30 CFR 77.506-1 - Electric equipment and circuits; overload and short circuit protection; minimum requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... short circuit protection; minimum requirements. 77.506-1 Section 77.506-1 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY...-1 Electric equipment and circuits; overload and short circuit protection; minimum requirements. Devices providing either short circuit protection or protection against overload shall conform to the...

Economic growth-electricity consumption causality in 12 European countries: A dynamic panel data approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciarreta, A.; Zarraga, A.

2010-01-01

This paper applies recent panel methodology to investigate the long-run and causal relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP for a set of 12 European countries using annual data for the period 1970-2007. The sample countries have moved faster than other neighboring countries towards the creation of a single electricity market over the past 30 years. Energy prices are also included in the study due to their important role in affecting the above variables, thus avoiding the problem of omitted variable bias. Tests for panel unit roots, cointegration in heterogeneous panels and panel causality are employed in a trivariate VECM estimated by system GMM. The results show evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the three series and a negative short-run and strong causality from electricity consumption to GDP. As expected, there is bidirectional causality between energy prices and GDP and weaker evidence between electricity consumption and energy prices. These results support the policies implemented towards the creation of a common European electricity market.

Run Clever - No difference in risk of injury when comparing progression in running volume and running intensity in recreational runners

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ramskov, Daniel; Rasmussen, Sten; Sørensen, Henrik

2018-01-01

Background/aim: The Run Clever trial investigated if there was a difference in injury occurrence across two running schedules, focusing on progression in volume of running intensity (Sch-I) or in total running volume (Sch-V). It was hypothesised that 15% more runners with a focus on progression...... in volume of running intensity would sustain an injury compared with runners with a focus on progression in total running volume. Methods: Healthy recreational runners were included and randomly allocated to Sch-I or Sch-V. In the first eight weeks of the 24-week follow-up, all participants (n=839) followed...... participants received real-time, individualised feedback on running intensity and running volume. The primary outcome was running-related injury (RRI). Results: After preconditioning a total of 80 runners sustained an RRI (Sch-I n=36/Sch-V n=44). The cumulative incidence proportion (CIP) in Sch-V (reference...

Readiness for change and short-term outcomes of female adolescents in residential treatment for anorexia nervosa.

Science.gov (United States)

McHugh, Matthew D

2007-11-01

To determine if readiness for change (RFC) at admission predicted length of stay (LOS) and short-term outcomes among female adolescents in residential treatment for anorexia nervosa (AN). Using a prospective cohort design to collect data from participants (N = 65) at admission and discharge, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression tested whether RFC on admission predicted time in LOS to a favorable short-term outcome--a composite endpoint based on minimum criteria for weight gain, drive for thinness, depression, anxiety, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Participants with low RFC had a mean survival time to a favorable short-term outcome of 59.4 days compared to 34.1 days for those with high RFC (log rank = 8.44, df = 1, p = .003). The probability of a favorable short-term outcome was 5.30 times greater for participants with high RFC. Readiness for change is a useful predictor of a favorable short-term outcome and should be considered in the assessment profile of patients with AN. (c) 2007 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Economic-efficiency considerations in restructuring electric markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hill, L.J.

1996-12-01

In response to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission`s subsequent rulemaking on transmission access, many states are exploring options to restructure their electric industries. In their deliberations on restructuring, policymakers should consider (1) the reliability of the electric system; (2) income-distribution effects on ratepayers and utilities; (3) social consequences such as effects on energy conservation, renewable energy, and the environment; and (4) economic efficiency. We address economic-efficiency considerations in this study. Economic efficiency is important because it is one of the primary reasons that policymakers should consider restructuring in the first place: improving the electric-industry`s efficiency lowers costs and, hence, electric prices. In this study, we look at the sources of (in)efficiency in existing and proposed electric markets with the objective of guiding policymakers to design efficient electric markets. The advantages of a competitive market are well known: it leads to lower costs for the utility, lower prices for consumers, more product choices, better customer service, and often the need for less regulation by federal and state agencies. In the short run, firms who cannot produce at the market-clearing price are forced to leave the industry, ensuring that customers have the lowest price possible. In the long run, competition promotes innovation and lower costs. The physical and institutional characteristics of the U.S. electric industry, however, could be impediments to attaining efficiently run, competitive markets. Because of these characteristics, there are multiple sources of efficiencies and inefficiencies in existing electric markets, and there will be multiple sources in restructured ones. The objective of policymakers should not be to trade one set of inefficiencies in existing electric markets for another set in restructured markets.

Economic-efficiency considerations in restructuring electric markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, L.J.

1996-12-01

In response to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's subsequent rulemaking on transmission access, many states are exploring options to restructure their electric industries. In their deliberations on restructuring, policymakers should consider (1) the reliability of the electric system; (2) income-distribution effects on ratepayers and utilities; (3) social consequences such as effects on energy conservation, renewable energy, and the environment; and (4) economic efficiency. We address economic-efficiency considerations in this study. Economic efficiency is important because it is one of the primary reasons that policymakers should consider restructuring in the first place: improving the electric-industry's efficiency lowers costs and, hence, electric prices. In this study, we look at the sources of (in)efficiency in existing and proposed electric markets with the objective of guiding policymakers to design efficient electric markets. The advantages of a competitive market are well known: it leads to lower costs for the utility, lower prices for consumers, more product choices, better customer service, and often the need for less regulation by federal and state agencies. In the short run, firms who cannot produce at the market-clearing price are forced to leave the industry, ensuring that customers have the lowest price possible. In the long run, competition promotes innovation and lower costs. The physical and institutional characteristics of the U.S. electric industry, however, could be impediments to attaining efficiently run, competitive markets. Because of these characteristics, there are multiple sources of efficiencies and inefficiencies in existing electric markets, and there will be multiple sources in restructured ones. The objective of policymakers should not be to trade one set of inefficiencies in existing electric markets for another set in restructured markets

The Effect of Synchronized Forced Running with Chronic Stress on Short, Mid and Long- term Memory in Rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Radahmadi, Maryam; Alaei, Hojjatallah; Sharifi, Mohammad-Reza; Hosseini, Nasrin

2013-03-01

Impairment of learning and memory processes has been demonstrated by many studies using different stressors. Other reports suggested that exercise has a powerful behavioral intervention to improve cognitive function and brain health. In this research, we investigated protective effects of treadmill running on chronic stress-induced memory deficit in rats. Fifty male Wistar rats were randomly divided into five groups (n=10) as follows: Control (Co), Sham (Sh), Stress (St), Exercise (Ex) and Stress and Exercise (St & Ex) groups. Chronic restraint stress was applied by 6h/day/21days and also treadmill running at a speed 20-21m/min for 1h/day/21days. Memory function was evaluated by the passive avoidance test in different intervals (1, 7 and 21 days) after foot shock. OUR RESULTS SHOWED THAT: 1) Although exercise alone showed beneficial effects especially on short and mid-term memory (Pshort, mid and long-term memory deficit in stressed rats. 2) Short and mid-term memory deficit was significantly (PMemory deficit in synchronized exercise with stress group was nearly similar to stressed rats. 4) Helpful effects of exercise were less than harmful effects of stress when they were associated together. The data correspond to the possibility that although treadmill running alone has helpful effects on learning and memory consolidation, but when it is synchronized with stress there is no significant benefit and protective effects in improvement of memory deficit induced by chronic stress. However, it is has a better effect than no training on memory deficit in stressed rats.

Laparoscopic colectomy for transverse colon cancer: comparative analysis of short- and long-term outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheng, Weizheng; Zhang, Bo; Chen, Weifeng; Gu, Dayong; Gao, Weidong

2015-01-01

This study evaluated the short- and long-term outcomes of laparoscopic colectomy compared with open colectomy for patients with transverse colon cancer by matched-pair analysis. This study enrolled 59 patients who underwent laparoscopic colectomy and compared them with 59 matched patients who underwent open colectomy for transverse colon cancer. The following parameters were matched: clinical stage and type of resection. Both short- and long-term outcomes of laparoscopic colectomy were compared with those of open colectomy. No difference was observed between the two groups in terms of age, gender, ASA score, comorbidity, clinical stage and operative procedures. Regarding short-term outcomes, blood loss, time to first flatus, time to liquid diet and postoperative stay were significantly shorter in the laparoscopy group than in the open group, while operation time was significantly longer in the laparoscopy group than in the open group. Postoperative complication was similar between the two groups. With respect to long-term outcomes, the two groups did not differ significantly in terms of 5-year overall and disease-free survival. In summary, laparoscopic colectomy is a safe and feasible option for selected patients with transverse colon cancer. The short- and long-term outcomes of laparoscopic colectomy are considered to be acceptable.

Excessive Progression in Weekly Running Distance and Risk of Running-related Injuries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, R.O.; Parner, Erik Thorlund; Nohr, Ellen Aagaard

2014-01-01

Study Design An explorative, 1-year prospective cohort study. Objective To examine whether an association between a sudden change in weekly running distance and running-related injury varies according to injury type. Background It is widely accepted that a sudden increase in running distance...... is strongly related to injury in runners. But the scientific knowledge supporting this assumption is limited. Methods A volunteer sample of 874 healthy novice runners who started a self-structured running regimen were provided a global-positioning-system watch. After each running session during the study...... period, participants were categorized into 1 of the following exposure groups, based on the progression of their weekly running distance: less than 10% or regression, 10% to 30%, or more than 30%. The primary outcome was running-related injury. Results A total of 202 runners sustained a running...

30 CFR 75.518-1 - Electric equipment and circuits; overload and short circuit protection; minimum requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Electric equipment and circuits; overload and short circuit protection; minimum requirements. 75.518-1 Section 75.518-1 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY... short circuit protection; minimum requirements. A device to provide either short circuit protection or...

Good short-term outcome of kangaroo mother care in low birth ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Good short-term outcome of kangaroo mother care in low birth weight infants in a rural South African hospital. A N Rodriguez, M Nel, H Dippenaar, E A Prinsloo. Abstract. Objective: The aim of the study was to determine the outcome of kangaroo mother care (KMC) in low birth weight infants at a community hospital. Methods ...

ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN A NORTHERN MEXICO METROPOLITAN ECONOMY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas M. Fullerton

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Using an error correction framework, this study analyzes the long- and short-run dynamics of electricity demand in Ciudad Juarez, a large metropolitan economy on Mexico’s northern border. Demand is decomposed into the total number of electricity accounts and electricity usage per customer, each of which is modeled separately. A two-stage least squares approach is used to estimate the per customer electricity demand equations due to the endogeneity of the average price variable. The results indicate sustained growth in population, employment, and income can be expected to exert substantial upward pressure on regional electric power demand. Furthermore, demand is found to be price-inelastic in this metropolitan area, suggesting that rate increases can help raise the revenues necessary to fund expansion of the electrical grid.

The Effect of Current-Limiting Reactors on the Tripping of Short Circuits in High-Voltage Electrical Equipment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volkov, M. S.; Gusev, Yu. P.; Monakov, Yu. V.; Cho, Gvan Chun

2016-01-01

The insertion of current-limiting reactors into electrical equipment operating at a voltage of 110 and 220 kV produces a change in the parameters of the transient recovery voltages at the contacts of the circuit breakers for disconnecting short circuits, which could be the reason for the increase in the duration of the short circuit, damage to the electrical equipment and losses in the power system. The results of mathematical modeling of the transients, caused by tripping of the short circuit in a reactive electric power transmission line are presented, and data are given on the negative effect of a current-limiting resistor on the rate of increase and peak value of the transient recovery voltages. Methods of ensuring the standard requirements imposed on the parameters of the transient recovery voltages when using current-limiting reactors in the high-voltage electrical equipment of power plants and substations are proposed and analyzed

The Effects of Antenatal Corticosteroids on Short- and Long-Term Outcomes in Small-for-Gestational-Age Infants

Science.gov (United States)

Ishikawa, Hiroshi; Miyazaki, Ken; Ikeda, Tomoaki; Murabayashi, Nao; Hayashi, Kazutoshi; Kai, Akihiko; Ishikawa, Kaoru; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro; Nishimura, Kunihiro; Kono, Yumi; Kusuda, Satoshi; Fujimura, Masanori

2015-01-01

Aim: To evaluate the effect of antenatal corticosteroids (ANS) on short- and long-term outcomes in small-for-gestational age (SGA) infants. Methods: A retrospective database analysis was performed. A total of 1,931 single infants (birth weight <1,500 g) born at a gestational age between 22 weeks and 33 weeks 6 days who were determined to be SGA registered in the Neonatal Research Network Database in Japan between 2003 and 2007 were evaluated for short-term outcome and long-term outcome. Results: ANS was administered to a total of 719 infants (37%) in the short-term outcome evaluation group and 344 infants (36%) in the long-term outcome evaluation group. There were no significant differences between the ANS group and the no-ANS group for primary short-term outcome (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.45-1.20; P-value 0.22) or primary long-term outcome (adjusted OR 0.69; 95% CI 0.40-1.17; P-value 0.17). Conclusions: Our results show that ANS does not affect short- or long-term outcome in SGA infants when the birth weight is less than 1500 g. This study strongly suggests that administration of ANS resulted in few benefits for preterm FGR fetuses. PMID:25897289

Ventilatory threshold during incremental running can be estimated using EMG shorts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tikkanen, Olli; Vilavuo, Toivo; Finni, Taija; Hu, Min; Cheng, Sulin; Tolvanen, Pekka

2012-01-01

The present study examined whether shorts with textile electromyographic (EMG) electrodes can be used to detect second ventilatory threshold (V T2 ) during incremental treadmill running. Thirteen recreationally active (REC) and eight endurance athletes were measured for EMG, heart rate, blood lactate and respiratory gases during VO 2max test (3 min ramps, 1 km ⋅ h −1 increments). V T2 , onset of blood lactate accumulation (OBLA) and EMG threshold (EMG T ) were determined. In athletes, OBLA occurred at 56 ± 6 mL ⋅ kg −1  ⋅ min −1 , V T2 occurred at 59 ± 6 mL ⋅ kg −1  ⋅ min −1 , and EMG T at 62 ± 6 mL ⋅ kg −1  ⋅ min −1 without significant differences between methods (analysis of variance: ANOVA). In REC participants, OBLA occurred at 40 ± 10 mL ⋅ kg −1  ⋅ min −1 , V T2 occurred at 43 ± 7 mL ⋅ kg −1  ⋅ min −1 , and EMG T at 41 ± 9 mL ⋅ kg −1  ⋅ min −1 without significant differences between methods (ANOVA). For the entire group, correlation between EMG T and V T2 was 0.86 (P < 0.001) and 0.84 (P < 0.001) between EMG T and OBLA. Limits of agreement between EMG T and V T2 were narrower in athletes than in REC participants. Thus, it is concluded that estimation of V T2 using EMG T in athletes is more valid than in REC participants. In practice, experienced runners could use online feedback from EMG garments to monitor whether their running intensity is near V T2 . (paper)

Short- and Long-Term Outcomes of Student Field Research Experiences in Special Populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Soliman, Amr S; Chamberlain, Robert M

2016-06-01

Global health education and training of biomedical students in international and minority health research is expending through U.S. academic institutions. This study addresses the short- and long-term outcomes of an NCI-funded R25 short-term summer field research training program. This program is designed for MPH and Ph.D. students in cancer epidemiology and related disciplines, in international and minority settings (special populations) in a recent 7-year period. Positive short-term outcome of 73 students was measured as publishing a manuscript from the field research data and having a job in special populations. Positive long-term outcome was measured as having a post-doc position, being in a doctoral program, and/or employment in special populations at least 3 years from finishing the program. Significant factors associated with both short- and long-term success included resourcefulness of the student and compatibility of personalities and interests between the student and the on-campus and off-campus mentors. Short-term-success of students who conducted international filed research was associated with visits of the on-campus mentor to the field site. Short-term success was also associated with extent of mentorship in the field site and with long-term success. Future studies should investigate how field research sites could enhance careers of students, appropriateness of the sites for specific training competencies, and how to maximize the learning experience of students in international and minority research sites.

Dynamics of Electricity Demand in Lesotho: A Kalman Filter Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thamae Retselisitsoe Isaiah

2015-04-01

Full Text Available This study provides an empirical analysis of the time-varying price and income elasticities of electricity demand in Lesotho for the period 1995-2012 using the Kalman filter approach. The results reveal that economic growth has been one of the main drivers of electricity consumption in Lesotho while electricity prices are found to play a less significant role since they are monopoly-driven and relatively low when compared to international standards. These findings imply that increases in electricity prices in Lesotho might not have a significant impact on consumption in the short-run. However, if the real electricity prices become too high over time, consumers might change their behavior and sensitivity to price and hence, energy policymakers will need to reconsider their impact in the long-run. Furthermore, several exogenous shocks seem to have affected the sensitivity of electricity demand during the period prior to regulation, which made individuals, businesses and agencies to be more sensitive to electricity costs. On the other hand, the period after regulation has been characterized by more stable and declining sensitivity of electricity demand. Therefore, factors such as regulation and changes in the country’s economic activities appear to have affected both price and income elasticities of electricity demand in Lesotho.

Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Energy Generation for a Photovoltaic System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dinh V.T.

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This article presents a short-term forecast of electric energy output of a photovoltaic (PV system towards Tomsk city, Russia climate variations (module temperature and solar irradiance. The system is located at Institute of Non-destructive Testing, Tomsk Polytechnic University. The obtained results show good agreement between actual data and prediction values.

Short-term outcomes following laparoscopic resection for colon cancer.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Kavanagh, Dara O

2011-03-01

Laparoscopic resection for colon cancer has been proven to have a similar oncological efficacy compared to open resection. Despite this, it is performed by a minority of colorectal surgeons. The aim of our study was to evaluate the short-term clinical, oncological and survival outcomes in all patients undergoing laparoscopic resection for colon cancer.

Short-run Distributional Effects of VAT Rate Change: Evidence from a consumption tax rate increase in Japan

OpenAIRE

David CASHIN; UNAYAMA Takashi

2012-01-01

Households will purchase more items than usual prior to a value added tax (VAT) rate increase in order to avoid taxation. Since this type of arbitrage requires resources such as shopping time and storage space, the impacts of tax increases vary across households, which has brought distributional effects in the short-run. Using the case of a consumption tax rate increase in Japan in 1997, we show that households who are non-working, with non-working spouses and residing in larger houses, benef...

Analysis and forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio [Dipartimento di Ingegneria Aerospaziale e Meccanica, Seconda Universita degli Studi di Napoli, Via Roma 29, 81031 Aversa (CE) (Italy); Minea, Alina A. [Faculty of Materials Science and Engineering, Technical University Gh. Asachi from Iasi, Bd. D. Mangeron, No. 59, Iasi (Romania)

2010-11-15

Electricity consumption forecast has fundamental importance in the energy planning of a country. In this paper, we present an analysis and two forecast models for nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania. A first part of the paper is dedicated to the estimation of GDP and price elasticities of consumption. Nonresidential short run GDP and price elasticities are found to be approximately 0.136 and -0.0752, respectively, whereas long run GDP and price elasticities are equal to 0.496 and -0.274 respectively. The second part of the study is dedicated to the forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption up to year 2020. A Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method and a trigonometric grey model with rolling mechanism (TGMRM) are employed for the consumption prediction. The two models lead to similar results, with an average deviation less than 5%. This deviation is to be considered acceptable in relation to the time horizon considered in the present study. (author)

Analysis and forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio; Minea, Alina A.

2010-01-01

Electricity consumption forecast has fundamental importance in the energy planning of a country. In this paper, we present an analysis and two forecast models for nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania. A first part of the paper is dedicated to the estimation of GDP and price elasticities of consumption. Nonresidential short run GDP and price elasticities are found to be approximately 0.136 and -0.0752, respectively, whereas long run GDP and price elasticities are equal to 0.496 and -0.274 respectively. The second part of the study is dedicated to the forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption up to year 2020. A Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method and a trigonometric grey model with rolling mechanism (TGMRM) are employed for the consumption prediction. The two models lead to similar results, with an average deviation less than 5%. This deviation is to be considered acceptable in relation to the time horizon considered in the present study. (author)

Hip adductor activations during run-to-cut maneuvers in compression shorts: Implications for return to sport after groin injury

Science.gov (United States)

CHAUDHARI, AJIT M. W.; JAMISON, STEVEN T.; MCNALLY, MICHAEL P.; PAN, XUELIANG; SCHMITT, LAURA C.

2014-01-01

Athletes at high risk of groin strains in sports such as hockey and soccer often choose to wear shorts with directional compression to aid in prevention or recovery from hip adductor strains. Large eccentric contractions are known to result in or exacerbate strain injuries, but it is unknown if these shorts have a beneficial effect on hip adductor muscle activity. In this study, surface electromyography of the adductor longus and ground reaction force (GRF) data were obtained simultaneously on 29 healthy individuals without previous history of serious injury while performing unanticipated 45° run-to-cut maneuvers in a laboratory setting wearing shorts with non-directional compression (control, HeatGear, Under Armour, USA) or shorts with directional compression (directional, CoreShort PRO, Under Armour, USA), in random order. Average adductor activity in the stance leg was significantly lower in the directional condition than in the control condition during all parts of stance phase (all pshorts appears to be associated with reduced stance limb hip adductor activity. Athletes seeking to reduce demand on the hip adductors as they approach full return to activities may benefit from the use of directional compression shorts. PMID:24669858

Development of renewable energy resources in Afghanistan for economically optimized cross-border electricity trading

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Masih Sediqi

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Afghanistan is a key country between energy surplus areas (Central Asian Republics andIran and energy deficit regions (Pakistan and India. It is in a position that can facilitate and launchregional electricity trade for the benefit of the region also derive significant gains for its own economyfrom energy imports and exports. On the other hand, Afghanistan is endowed with large renewableenergy resources (RERs, which it could exploit not only to satisfy its domestic power demand butalso to earn significant export revenue. This paper firstly explains the methodology and framework forthe power trade and then presents an optimization framework for profit maximization in the short-runtrading and cost minimization in the long-run trading. The proposed methodology is applied to a realcase between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The objective functions, parameters, variables and constraintsare described for both optimization models. System sizing, simulation and optimization are carriedout using genetic algorithm (GA technique. The results in the short-run model represent optimalityof about 2654 MW electricity export from Afghanistan to Pakistan during summer. Moreover, resultsderived from running long-run model depict that by utilizing its RERs such as solar, wind and hydro,Afghanistan can not only meet its power demand but also can export to Pakistan during its deficitperiods and gain remarkable energy profits.

Relics of short distance effects for the neutron electric dipole moment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eeg, J.O.

1982-12-01

The Feynman diagrams which dominate the estimates of the electric dipole moment of the neutron with Kobayashi-Maskawa CP violation are considered. The extracted long distance contributions and the relics of short distance contributions are shown to be complementary and of the same magnitude, resulting in mod(Dsub(n)/e) approximately = (10 - 31 - 10 - 30 ) cm. (Auth.)

Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Analysis and Forecasts using VAR/VEC Approach for Greece with Capital Formation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Georgantopoulos

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper tests for the existence and direction of causality between electricity consumption and real gross domestic product for Greece. The study examines a trivariate system with capital formation for the period 1980-2010. Robust empirical results indicate that all variables are integrated of order one and cointegration analysis reports that cointegrating relationship exists between the variables. VAR/VEC approach suggests that all variables return to the long-run equilibrium whenever there is a deviation from the cointegrating relationship and that unidirectional causal links exists running from capital formation and electricity consumption to RGDP in the short-run implying that the economy of Greece is strongly energy dependent. Forecasts for the period 2011-2020 indicate increasing consumption of electricity and positive growth rates from 2013. Policy makers will need to liberalise the electricity sector and to turn the economy towards renewable and natural gas sources in order to reduce imports of oil and coal dependency.

Cycles in competitive electricity markets: a simulation study of the western United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ford, A.

1999-01-01

This paper describes the potential for power plant construction to appear in waves causing alternating periods of over and under supply of electricity. The end result would be major swings in market prices as the industry moves through the phases of a construction cycle. This paper begins with some background on why these cycles should be taken seriously as we write the rules for a restructured electricity industry. It uses computer simulation to learn that cycles could emerge if the western states adopt the market rules used in California. Construction cycles are a potentially serious problem, but they are not inevitable. This paper uses computer simulation to show that cycles could be dampened substantially by introducing a constant capacity payment along side of the market clearing price for energy. The paper concludes with an examination of the consumer impacts of a constant capacity payment. Wholesale consumers would experience higher costs in the short run, but lower energy prices would nullify the impact of capacity payments in the long run. Retail consumers would not necessarily face higher costs in the short run because of a reduction in charges for recovery of stranded costs. (author)

Hip adductor activations during run-to-cut manoeuvres in compression shorts: implications for return to sport after groin injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaudhari, Ajit M W; Jamison, Steven T; McNally, Michael P; Pan, Xueliang; Schmitt, Laura C

2014-01-01

Athletes at high risk of groin strains in sports such as hockey and soccer often choose to wear shorts with directional compression to aid in prevention of or recovery from hip adductor strains. Large, eccentric contractions are known to result in or exacerbate strain injuries, but it is unknown if these shorts have a beneficial effect on hip adductor muscle activity. In this study, surface electromyography (EMG) of the adductor longus and ground reaction force (GRF) data were obtained simultaneously on 29 healthy individuals without previous history of serious injury while performing unanticipated 45° run-to-cut manoeuvres in a laboratory setting wearing shorts with non-directional compression (control, HeatGear, Under Armour, USA) or shorts with directional compression (directional, CoreShort PRO, Under Armour, USA), in random order. Average adductor activity in the stance leg was significantly lower in the directional condition than in the control condition during all parts of stance phase (all P < 0.042). From this preliminary analysis, wearing directional compression shorts appears to be associated with reduced stance limb hip adductor activity. Athletes seeking to reduce demand on the hip adductors as they approach full return to activities may benefit from the use of directional compression shorts.

Electricity demand in Tunisia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gam, Imen; Ben Rejeb, Jaleleddine

2012-01-01

This paper examines the global electricity demand in Tunisia as a function of gross domestic product in constant price, the degree of urbanization, the average annual temperature, and the real electricity price per Kwh. This demand will be examined employing annual data over a period spanning almost thirty one years from 1976 to 2006. A long run relationship between the variables under consideration is determined using the Vector Autoregressive Regression. The empirical results suggest that the electricity demand in Tunisia is sensitive to its past value, any changes in gross domestic product and electricity price. The electricity price effects have a negative impact on long-run electricity consumption. However, the gross domestic product and the past value of electricity consumption have a positive effect. Moreover, the causality test reveals a unidirectional relationship between price and electricity consumption. Our empirical findings are effective to policy makers to maintain the electricity consumption in Tunisia by using the appropriate strategy. - Highlights: ► This paper examined the electricity demand in Tunisia in the long-run. ► The empirical analysis revealed that in the long-run the electricity demand is affected by changes in its past value, GDP in constant price and real electricity price. ► There is a unidirectional relationship between price and electricity consumption, that is to say, that the electricity price causes the consumption. ► Those results suggest that a pricing policy can be an effective instrument to rationalize the electricity consumption in Tunisia in the long-run.

The NLstart2run study : Health effects of a running promotion program in novice runners, design of a prospective cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kluitenberg, Bas; van Middelkoop, Marienke; Diercks, Ronald; Hartgens, Fred; Verhagen, Evert; Smits, Dirk-Wouter; Buist, Ida; van der Worp, Henk

2013-01-01

Background: Running is associated with desirable lifestyle changes. Therefore several initiatives have been undertaken to promote running. Exact data on the health effects as a result of participating in a short-term running promotion program, however, is scarce. One important reason for dropout

The NLstart2run study: health effects of a running promotion program in novice runners, design of a prospective cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kluitenberg, B.; van Middelkoop, M.; Diercks, R.L.; Hartgens, F.; Verhagen, E.A.L.M.; Smits, D.W.; Buist, I.; van der Worp, H.

2013-01-01

Background: Running is associated with desirable lifestyle changes. Therefore several initiatives have been undertaken to promote running. Exact data on the health effects as a result of participating in a short-term running promotion program, however, is scarce. One important reason for dropout

Electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa. A trivariate causality test

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Odhiambo, Nicholas M. [Economics Department, University of South Africa (UNISA), P.O. Box 392, UNISA, 0003, Pretoria (South Africa)

2009-09-15

In this paper we examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa. We incorporate the employment rate as an intermittent variable in the bivariate model between electricity consumption and economic growth - thereby creating a simple trivariate causality framework. Our empirical results show that there is a distinct bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa. In addition, the results show that employment in South Africa Granger-causes economic growth. The results apply irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short-run or in the long-run formulation. The study, therefore, recommends that policies geared towards the expansion of the electricity infrastructure should be intensified in South Africa in order to cope with the increasing demand exerted by the country's strong economic growth and rapid industrialisation programme. This will certainly enable the country to avoid unprecedented power outages similar to those experienced in the country in mid-January 2008. (author)

Efficient integration of renewable energies in the German electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nabe, C.A.

2006-01-01

Liberalisation of the electricity sector aims to carry out coordination tasks within the system by markets and market prices. This study examines how markets need to be designed to carry out coordination tasks caused by integration of renewable energies in an efficient way. This question is applied to the German electricity system and recommendations are derived from identified deficits. The examination uses the structure-conduct-performance approach of industrial organisation economics. Integration of renewable energies does not result in entirely new coordination tasks but complicates those that exist in any electricity supply system. Within the short-term coordination tasks provision and operation of reserve capacity is affected by renewable energies. Long-term coordination means that the relation between fixed and variable costs of generators as well as generator flexibility has to be adjusted to the characteristics of renewable energies. The relevant short-term coordination task with the network is congestion management. In the long run costs of grid expansion and permanent congestion management have to be balanced. For the execution of short-run coordination tasks integrated and centralised market architectures are superior to decentralised architectures. The increase of short-term coordination tasks due to renewable energies caused by inflexibilities of consumers and conventional generators results in more information that has to be considered. By centralising that information in one market, an increase in productive efficiency can be obtained. In Germany the increased coordination tasks are determined by the integration of wind generators into the electricity system. The present German market architecture results in inefficiencies in short-term coordination. This is demonstrated by an analysis of procedural rules and prices of the ancillary service markets. They demonstrate that market performance is low and significant deviations from competitive prices

Electricity demand by the commercial sector in Kuwait: an econometric analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eltony, M.N.; Hajeeh, M.

1999-01-01

This paper models and estimates electricity demand by the Kuwaiti commercial sector, using an error correction model. It also simulates the estimated model under three scenarios and presents an analysis of the results. The empirical results indicate that short- and long-run electricity consumption and the level of economic activity are interrelated. The forecasts show that electricity consumption varies directly with economic growth. They also suggest that an increase of 100 per cent in nominal electricity prices will lead to a reduction in commercial sector electricity demand of 45 per cent by the year 2010. The simulation of the model under the different scenarios demonstrates that the potential for energy conservation exists in the commercial sector

Short term clinical outcome of children with rotavirus infection at ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Rotavirus infection is the single most common cause of acute gastroenteritis in children under five years of age. Rotavirus gastroenteritis has a high morbidity and mortality in children in Kenya. Objectives: To determine the short term clinical outcome for children admitted to Kenyatta National Hospital with ...

RUN COORDINATION

CERN Multimedia

C. Delaere

2013-01-01

Since the LHC ceased operations in February, a lot has been going on at Point 5, and Run Coordination continues to monitor closely the advance of maintenance and upgrade activities. In the last months, the Pixel detector was extracted and is now stored in the pixel lab in SX5; the beam pipe has been removed and ME1/1 removal has started. We regained access to the vactank and some work on the RBX of HB has started. Since mid-June, electricity and cooling are back in S1 and S2, allowing us to turn equipment back on, at least during the day. 24/7 shifts are not foreseen in the next weeks, and safety tours are mandatory to keep equipment on overnight, but re-commissioning activities are slowly being resumed. Given the (slight) delays accumulated in LS1, it was decided to merge the two global runs initially foreseen into a single exercise during the week of 4 November 2013. The aim of the global run is to check that we can run (parts of) CMS after several months switched off, with the new VME PCs installed, th...

Radiology, histology and short-term outcome of asymptomatic congenital thoracic malformations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kongstad, Thomas; Buchvald, Frederik; Brenøe, Jørn

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and short-term outcome of our management of asymptomatic children with antenatally diagnosed congenital thoracic malformations (CTM), compared with recommendations from a recent review and meta-analysis....

Short-Term Planning of Hybrid Power System

Science.gov (United States)

Knežević, Goran; Baus, Zoran; Nikolovski, Srete

2016-07-01

In this paper short-term planning algorithm for hybrid power system consist of different types of cascade hydropower plants (run-of-the river, pumped storage, conventional), thermal power plants (coal-fired power plants, combined cycle gas-fired power plants) and wind farms is presented. The optimization process provides a joint bid of the hybrid system, and thus making the operation schedule of hydro and thermal power plants, the operation condition of pumped-storage hydropower plants with the aim of maximizing profits on day ahead market, according to expected hourly electricity prices, the expected local water inflow in certain hydropower plants, and the expected production of electrical energy from the wind farm, taking into account previously contracted bilateral agreement for electricity generation. Optimization process is formulated as hourly-discretized mixed integer linear optimization problem. Optimization model is applied on the case study in order to show general features of the developed model.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid intelligent approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); Pousinho, H.M.I. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal)

2011-02-15

In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (author)

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid intelligent approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catalao, J.P.S.; Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.

2011-01-01

In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (author)

Single-Incision Laparoscopic Colectomy for Cancer: Short-Term Outcomes and Comparative Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodrigo Pedraza

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Single-incision laparoscopic colectomy (SILC is a viable and safe technique; however, there are no single-institution studies comparing outcomes of SILC for colon cancer with well-established minimally invasive techniques. We evaluated the short-term outcomes following SILC for cancer compared to a group of well-established minimally invasive techniques. Methods. Fifty consecutive patients who underwent SILC for colon cancer were compared to a control group composed of 50 cases of minimally invasive colectomies performed with either conventional multiport or hand-assisted laparoscopic technique. The groups were paired based on the type of procedure. Demographics, intraoperative, and postoperative outcomes were assessed. Results. With the exception of BMI, demographics were similar between both groups. Most of the procedures were right colectomies ( and anterior resections (. There were no significant differences in operative time (127.9 versus 126.7 min, conversions (0 versus 1, complications (14% versus 8%, length of stay (4.5 versus 4.0 days, readmissions (2% versus 2%, and reoperations (2% versus 2%. Oncological outcomes were also similar between groups. Conclusions. SILC is an oncologically sound alternative for the management of colon cancer and results in similar short-term outcomes as compared with well-established minimally invasive techniques.

Electrical short circuit and current overload tests on aircraft wiring

Science.gov (United States)

Cahill, Patricia

1995-01-01

The findings of electrical short circuit and current overload tests performed on commercial aircraft wiring are presented. A series of bench-scale tests were conducted to evaluate circuit breaker response to overcurrent and to determine if the wire showed any visible signs of thermal degradation due to overcurrent. Three types of wire used in commercial aircraft were evaluated: MIL-W-22759/34 (150 C rated), MIL-W-81381/12 (200 C rated), and BMS 1360 (260 C rated). A second series of tests evaluated circuit breaker response to short circuits and ticking faults. These tests were also meant to determine if the three test wires behaved differently under these conditions and if a short circuit or ticking fault could start a fire. It is concluded that circuit breakers provided reliable overcurrent protection. Circuit breakers may not protect wire from ticking faults but can protect wire from direct shorts. These tests indicated that the appearance of a wire subjected to a current that totally degrades the insulation looks identical to a wire subjected to a fire; however the 'fire exposed' conductor was more brittle than the conductor degraded by overcurrent. Preliminary testing indicates that direct short circuits are not likely to start a fire. Preliminary testing indicated that direct short circuits do not erode insulation and conductor to the extent that ticking faults did. Circuit breakers may not safeguard against the ignition of flammable materials by ticking faults. The flammability of materials near ticking faults is far more important than the rating of the wire insulation material.

Benefits for wind energy in electricity markets from using short term wind power prediction tools: a simulation study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Usaola, J.; Ravelo, O.; Gonzalez, G.; Soto, F.; Davila, M.C.; Diaz-Guerra, B.

2004-01-01

One of the characteristics of wind energy, from the grid point of view, is its non-dispatchability, i.e. generation cannot be ordered, hence integration in electrical networks may be difficult. Short-term wind power prediction-tools could make this integration easier, either by their use by the grid System Operator, or by promoting the participation of wind farms in the electricity markets and using prediction tools to make their bids in the market. In this paper, the importance of a short-term wind power-prediction tool for the participation of wind energy systems in electricity markets is studied. Simulations, according to the current Spanish market rules, have been performed to the production of different wind farms, with different degrees of accuracy in the prediction tool. It may be concluded that income from participation in electricity markets is increased using a short-term wind power prediction-tool of average accuracy. This both marginally increases income and also reduces the impact on system operation with the improved forecasts. (author)

Output improvement of Sg. Piah run-off river hydro-electric station with a new computed river flow-based control system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jidin, Razali; Othman, Bahari

2013-01-01

The lower Sg. Piah hydro-electric station is a river run-off hydro scheme with generators capable of generating 55MW of electricity. It is located 30km away from Sg. Siput, a small town in the state of Perak, Malaysia. The station has two turbines (Pelton) to harness energy from water that flow through a 7km tunnel from a small intake dam. The trait of a run-off river hydro station is small-reservoir that cannot store water for a long duration; therefore potential energy carried by the spillage will be wasted if the dam level is not appropriately regulated. To improve the station annual energy output, a new controller based on the computed river flow has been installed. The controller regulates the dam level with an algorithm based on the river flow derived indirectly from the intake-dam water level and other plant parameters. The controller has been able to maintain the dam at optimum water level and regulate the turbines to maximize the total generation output.

Output improvement of Sg. Piah run-off river hydro-electric station with a new computed river flow-based control system

Science.gov (United States)

Jidin, Razali; Othman, Bahari

2013-06-01

The lower Sg. Piah hydro-electric station is a river run-off hydro scheme with generators capable of generating 55MW of electricity. It is located 30km away from Sg. Siput, a small town in the state of Perak, Malaysia. The station has two turbines (Pelton) to harness energy from water that flow through a 7km tunnel from a small intake dam. The trait of a run-off river hydro station is small-reservoir that cannot store water for a long duration; therefore potential energy carried by the spillage will be wasted if the dam level is not appropriately regulated. To improve the station annual energy output, a new controller based on the computed river flow has been installed. The controller regulates the dam level with an algorithm based on the river flow derived indirectly from the intake-dam water level and other plant parameters. The controller has been able to maintain the dam at optimum water level and regulate the turbines to maximize the total generation output.

Cap-and-Trade Modeling and Analysis: Congested Electricity Market Equilibrium

Science.gov (United States)

Limpaitoon, Tanachai

analysis of the joint markets in the presence of market power reveals that strategic permit trading can play a vital role in determining economic outcomes in the electricity market. In particular, I find that a firm with more efficient technologies can employ strategic withholding of permits, which allows for its increase in output share in the electricity market at the expense of other less efficient firms. In addition, strategic permit trading can influence patterns of transmission congestion. These results illustrate that market structure and transmission congestion can have a significant impact on the market performance and environmental outcome of the regulation while the interactions of such factors can lead to unintended consequences. The proposed approach is proven useful as a tool for market monitoring purposes in the short run from the perspective of a system operator, whose responsibility has become indirectly intertwined with emission trading regulation.

Accordion complication grading predicts short-term outcome after right colectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Klos, Coen L; Safar, Bashar; Hunt, Steven R; Wise, Paul E; Birnbaum, Elisa H; Mutch, Matthew G; Fleshman, James W; Dharmarajan, Sekhar

2014-08-01

The Accordion severity grading system is a novel system to score the severity of postoperative complications in a standardized fashion. This study aims to demonstrate the validity of the Accordion system in colorectal surgery by correlating severity grades with short-term outcomes after right colectomy for colon cancer. This is a retrospective cohort review of patients who underwent right colectomy for cancer between January 1, 2002, and January 31, 2007, at a single tertiary care referral center. Complications were categorized according to the Accordion severity grading system: grades 1 (mild), 2 (moderate), 3-5 (severe), and 6 (death). Outcome measures were hospital stay, 30-d readmission rate and 1-y survival. Correlation between Accordion grades and outcome measures is reflected by Spearman rho (ρ). One-year survival was obtained per Kaplan-Meier method and compared by logrank test for trend. Significance was set at P ≤ 0.05. Overall, 235 patients underwent right colectomy for cancer of which 122 (51.9%) had complications. In total, 52 (43%) had an Accordion grade 1 complication; 44 (36%) grade 2; four (3%) grade 3; 11 (9%) grade 4; seven (6%) grade 5; and four (3%) grade 6. There was significant correlation between Accordion grades and hospital stay (ρ = 0.495, P trend in 1-y survival as complication severity by Accordion grade increased (P = 0.02). The Accordion grading system is a useful tool to estimate short-term outcomes after right colectomy for cancer. High-grade Accordion complications are associated with longer hospital stay and increased risk of readmission and mortality. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Are intra-articular corticosteroid injections better than conventional TENS in treatment of rotator cuff tendinitis in the short run? A randomized study.

Science.gov (United States)

Eyigor, C; Eyigor, S; Kivilcim Korkmaz, O

2010-09-01

Rotator cuff problems are common causes of pain and restriction of movement in shoulder. The aim of this study to compare the effect of intra-articular injection of corticosteroid and conventional transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulator (TENS) treatment in treatment of rotator cuff tendinitis. Subjects were randomly allocated into Group 1 (intra-articular injection of corticosteroid) and Group 2 (conventional transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation-TENS). Outcome measurements were performed using the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) for pain, range of motion (ROM), the Shoulder Disability Questionnaire (SDQ), the Short Form-36 (SF-36), and Beck Depression Scale (BDS) questionnaires and paracetamol consumption. In both groups, significant improvement was observed in all weeks in VAS, ROM and SDQ scores (P0.05). In both treatment groups, paracetamol consumption decreased in time (Protator cuff tendinitis. When two treatments are compared, it may be concluded that intra-articular steroid injection was more effective especially in the first weeks regarding pain, ROM and disability. Otherwise, use of TENS allow to patients to increase activity level, improve function and quality of life like that in our study. TENS, as it is cheaper, non-invasive, more easily performed and efficient, may be preferable for the treatment of shoulder pain. Further studies are needed to include these results in the prospective treatment guidelines.

Longitudinal Hypertension Outcomes at Four Student-Run Free Clinic Sites.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Sunny D; Rojas, Steven M; Huang, Junwen; Yang, Kuangyi; Vaida, Florin

2017-01-01

Student-Run Free Clinics (SRFCs) play a significant role in medical education yet there is minimal information about patient outcomes over time in this setting. The purpose of this study was to assess longitudinal outcomes of hypertension management during routine care at four SRFC sites, while comparing control rates with national standards, and examining for characteristics independently associated with uncontrolled hypertension. The authors conducted a retrospective medical record review of visits from January 2004 through April 2016 with an initial visit for hypertension and a follow-up visit 9 to 15 months later. Hypertension control was analyzed using descriptive statistics, paired t tests, logistic regression, and a longitudinal linear mixed-effects model. This study included 496 patients and 4,798 visits. The mean age was 50.9 (SD 10.8) years old, 71.2% (346) were Latinos, 63.3% (314) were Spanish speaking, and 15.5% (72) were homeless. Mean blood pressure was reduced from 141.6 (SD 21.8)/85.1 (SD 13.2) to 132.1 (SD 17.3)/79.4 (SD10.8), a decrease of 9.5 (CI 7.4, 11.5)/5.7 (CI 4.4, 7.0) mmHg. Blood pressure was significantly reduced within the first month of treatment, and this reduction was sustained throughout the follow-up period. Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) definition (hypertension management and achieve rates of control that exceed national averages despite serving those least likely to be controlled.

Improving the principles of short-term electric load forecasting of the Irkutsk region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kornilov Vladimir

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Forecasting of electric load (EL is an important task for both electric power entities and large consumers of electricity [1]. Large consumers are faced with the need to compose applications for the planned volume of EL, and the deviation of subsequent real consumption from previously announced leads to the appearance of penalties from the wholesale market. In turn, electricity producers are interested in forecasting the demand for electricity for prompt response to its fluctuations and for the purpose of optimal infrastructure development. The most difficult and urgent task is the hourly forecasting of EL, which is extremely important for the successful solution of problems of optimization of generating capacities, minimization of power losses, dispatching control, security assessment of power supply, etc. Ultimately, such forecasts allow optimizing the cash costs for electricity and fuel or water consumption during generation. This paper analyzes the experience of the branch of JSC "SO UPS" Irkutsk Regional Dispatch Office of the procedure for short-term forecasting of the EL of the Irkutsk region.

Relationship between anaerobic capacity estimated using a single effort and 30-s tethered running outcomes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandro Moura Zagatto

Full Text Available The purpose of the current study was to investigate the relationship between alternative anaerobic capacity method (MAODALT and a 30-s all-out tethered running test. Fourteen male recreational endurance runners underwent a graded exercise test, a supramaximal exhaustive effort and a 30-s all-out test on different days, interspaced by 48h. After verification of data normality (Shapiro-Wilk test, the Pearson's correlation test was used to verify the association between the anaerobic estimates from the MAODALT and the 30-s all-out tethered running outputs. Absolute MAODALT was correlated with mean power (r = 0.58; P = 0.03, total work (r = 0.57; P = 0.03, and mean force (r = 0.79; P = 0.001. In addition, energy from the glycolytic pathway (E[La-] was correlated with mean power (r = 0.58; P = 0.03. Significant correlations were also found at each 5s interval between absolute MAODALT and force values (r between 0.75 and 0.84, and between force values and E[La-] (r between 0.73 to 0.80. In conclusion, the associations between absolute MAODALT and the mechanical outputs from the 30-s all-out tethered running test evidenced the importance of the anaerobic capacity for maintaining force during the course of time in short efforts.

Electric vehicles and India's low carbon passenger transport: A long-term co-benefits assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal; Shukla, Priyadarshi

2017-01-01

Electric vehicles have attracted the attention of India's policy makers as clean technology alternatives due to their multiple advantages like higher efficiency and lower air pollution in short to medium term and reduced CO2 emissions as electricity gets decarbonized in the long-run under low...... carbon scenarios. This paper uses an energy system model ANSWER-MARKAL to analyse the role of electric vehicles (EV) in India. The modelling assessment spans the period 2010 to 2050 and analyses future EV demand in India under three scenarios: i) a ‘Reference’ scenario which includes the continuation...

Estimating long-run equilibrium real exchange rates: short-lived shocks with long-lived impacts on Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Zardad, Asma; Mohsin, Asma; Zaman, Khalid

2013-12-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors that affect real exchange rate volatility for Pakistan through the co-integration and error correction model over a 30-year time period, i.e. between 1980 and 2010. The study employed the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Vector Error Correction model (VECM) to estimate the changes in the volatility of real exchange rate series, while an error correction model was used to determine the short-run dynamics of the system. The study is limited to a few variables i.e., productivity differential (i.e., real GDP per capita relative to main trading partner); terms of trade; trade openness and government expenditures in order to manage robust data. The result indicates that real effective exchange rate (REER) has been volatile around its equilibrium level; while, the speed of adjustment is relatively slow. VECM results confirm long run convergence of real exchange rate towards its equilibrium level. Results from ARCH and GARCH estimation shows that real shocks volatility persists, so that shocks die out rather slowly, and lasting misalignment seems to have occurred.

Various mechanisms and clinical phenotypes in electrical short circuits of high-voltage devices: report of four cases and review of the literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsurugi, Takuo; Matsui, Shogo; Nakajima, Hiroshi; Nishii, Nobuhiro; Honda, Toshihiro; Kaneko, Yoshiaki

2015-06-01

An electrical short circuit is a rare complication in a high-voltage implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). However, the inability of an ICD to deliver appropriate shock therapy can be life-threatening. During the last 2 years, four cases of serious complications related to an electrical short circuit have been reported in Japan. A spark due to an electrical short circuit resulted in the failure of an ICD shock to terminate ventricular tachycardia and total damage to the ICD generator in three of four cases. Two of the four patients died from an electrical short circuit between the right ventricle and superior vena cava (SVC) leads. The others had audible sounds from the ICD generator site and were diagnosed with a lead-to-can abrasion, which was manifested by the arc mark on the surface of the can. It is still difficult to predict the occurrence of an electrical short circuit in current ICD systems. To reduce the probability of an electrical short circuit, we suggest the following: (i) avoid lead stress at ICD implantation, (ii) select a single-coil lead instead of a dual-coil lead, or (iii) use a unique algorithm which automatically disconnect can or SVC lead from shock deliver circuit when excessive current was detected. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Using restructured electricity supply industries to understand oligopoly industry outcomes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wolak, Frank A.

2010-01-01

This paper argues that many determinants of generic oligopoly market outcomes can be studied in bid-based wholesale electricity markets under much weaker assumptions than in other oligopoly industries because of their rich data, regulatory history, and clearly specified market rules. These methods are compared to those used in existing studies of oligopolistic industries where the best data available are market-clearing prices and quantities and demand and cost shifters. The extent to which the methods used in bid-based wholesale electricity markets generalize conventional methods is explained in detail and major applications of these techniques are summarized. Lessons from the study of wholesale electricity markets for the monitoring and design of other oligopolistic markets are also discussed. (author)

Prepectoral Implant-Based Breast Reconstruction and Postmastectomy Radiotherapy: Short-Term Outcomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven Sigalove, MD

2017-12-01

Conclusions:. Immediate implant-based prepectoral breast reconstruction followed by PMRT appears to be well tolerated, with no excess risk of adverse outcomes, at least in the short term. Longer follow-up is needed to better understand the risk of PMRT in prepectorally reconstructed breasts.

Determination of patellofemoral pain sub-groups and development of a method for predicting treatment outcome using running gait kinematics.

Science.gov (United States)

Watari, Ricky; Kobsar, Dylan; Phinyomark, Angkoon; Osis, Sean; Ferber, Reed

2016-10-01

Not all patients with patellofemoral pain exhibit successful outcomes following exercise therapy. Thus, the ability to identify patellofemoral pain subgroups related to treatment response is important for the development of optimal therapeutic strategies to improve rehabilitation outcomes. The purpose of this study was to use baseline running gait kinematic and clinical outcome variables to classify patellofemoral pain patients on treatment response retrospectively. Forty-one individuals with patellofemoral pain that underwent a 6-week exercise intervention program were sub-grouped as treatment Responders (n=28) and Non-responders (n=13) based on self-reported measures of pain and function. Baseline three-dimensional running kinematics, and self-reported measures underwent a linear discriminant analysis of the principal components of the variables to retrospectively classify participants based on treatment response. The significance of the discriminant function was verified with a Wilk's lambda test (α=0.05). The model selected 2 gait principal components and had a 78.1% classification accuracy. Overall, Non-responders exhibited greater ankle dorsiflexion, knee abduction and hip flexion during the swing phase and greater ankle inversion during the stance phase, compared to Responders. This is the first study to investigate an objective method to use baseline kinematic and self-report outcome variables to classify on patellofemoral pain treatment outcome. This study represents a significant first step towards a method to help clinicians make evidence-informed decisions regarding optimal treatment strategies for patients with patellofemoral pain. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preoperative physiotherapy and short-term functional outcomes of primary total knee arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Mat Eil Ismail, Mohd Shukry; Sharifudin, Mohd Ariff; Shokri, Amran Ahmed; Ab Rahman, Shaifuzain

2016-03-01

Physiotherapy is an important part of rehabilitation following arthroplasty, but the impact of preoperative physiotherapy on functional outcomes is still being studied. This randomised controlled trial evaluated the effect of preoperative physiotherapy on the short-term functional outcomes of primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA). 50 patients with primary knee osteoarthritis who underwent unilateral primary TKA were randomised into two groups: the physiotherapy group (n = 24), whose patients performed physical exercises for six weeks immediately prior to surgery, and the nonphysiotherapy group (n = 26). All patients went through a similar physiotherapy regime in the postoperative rehabilitation period. Functional outcome assessment using the algofunctional Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) scale and range of motion (ROM) evaluation was performed preoperatively, and postoperatively at six weeks and three months. Both groups showed a significant difference in all algofunctional KOOS subscales (p 0.05). Significant differences were observed in the time-versus-treatment analysis between groups for the symptoms (p = 0.003) and activities of daily living (p = 0.025) subscales. No significant difference in ROM was found when comparing preoperative measurements and those at three months following surgery, as well as in time-versus-treatment analysis (p = 0.928). Six-week preoperative physiotherapy showed no significant impact on short-term functional outcomes (KOOS subscales) and ROM of the knee following primary TKA. Copyright: © Singapore Medical Association.

RUN COORDINATION

CERN Multimedia

Christophe Delaere

2013-01-01

The focus of Run Coordination during LS1 is to monitor closely the advance of maintenance and upgrade activities, to smooth interactions between subsystems and to ensure that all are ready in time to resume operations in 2015 with a fully calibrated and understood detector. After electricity and cooling were restored to all equipment, at about the time of the last CMS week, recommissioning activities were resumed for all subsystems. On 7 October, DCS shifts began 24/7 to allow subsystems to remain on to facilitate operations. That culminated with the Global Run in November (GriN), which   took place as scheduled during the week of 4 November. The GriN has been the first centrally managed operation since the beginning of LS1, and involved all subdetectors but the Pixel Tracker presently in a lab upstairs. All nights were therefore dedicated to long stable runs with as many subdetectors as possible. Among the many achievements in that week, three items may be highlighted. First, the Strip...

EQUATIONS OF ELECTRIC MOTOR POWER SUPPLY UNIT DISSYMMETRY UNDER PHASE SHORT-CIRCUIT FAULT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V.Y. Tchaban

2013-04-01

Full Text Available In the paper, a formula is introduced for calculating electric motor supply unit voltage under feeding by a common transformer in the condition of a phase short-circuit in one of the motors. The formula is used in every time step of electromechanical state equations integration.

Long-run and Short-run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in Zambia

OpenAIRE

Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda

2001-01-01

The paper analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate in Zambia. It first gives a brief review of the Zambian economy and a review on real exchange rate studies. Then an illustrative model is presented. The study employs cointegration analysis in estimating the long-run determinants of the real exchange rates for imports and exports, and of the internal real exchange rate. The finding is that terms of trade, government consumption, and investment share all influence the real exch...

Forecast of electric power market to short-term: a time series approcah

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costa, Roberio Neves Pelinca da.

1994-01-01

Three different time series approaches are analysed by this dissertation in the Brazilian electricity markert context. The aim is to compare the predictive performance of these approaches from a simulated exercise using the main series of the Brazilian consumption of electricity: Total Consumption, Industrial Consumption, Residencial Consumption and Commercial Consumption. One concludes that these appraches offer an enormous potentiality to the short-term planning system of the Electric Sector. Among the univariate models, the results for the analysed period point out that the forecast produced by Holt-Winter's models are more accurate than those produced by ARIMA and structural models. When explanatory variables are introduced in the last models, one can notice, in general, an improvement in the predictive performance of the models, although there is no sufficient evidence to consider that they are superior to Holt-Winter's models. The models with explanatory variables can be particularly useful, however, when one intends either to build scenarios or to study the effects of some variables on the consumption of electricity. (author). 73 refs., 19 figs., 13 tabs

A proposal for transmission pricing methodology in Thailand based on electricity tracing and long-run average incremental cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Limpasuwan, T.; Bialek, J.W.; Ongsakul, W.; Limmeechokchai, B.

2004-01-01

Although there is no universally accepted methodology for restructuring of electricity supply industry, the transformations often involve separation of generation and transmission. Such separation results in a need for a transmission service charge to be levied on the system users. The National Energy Policy Office (NEPO) of Thailand has commissioned PricewaterhouseCooper (PwC) to propose a transmission service charge that is to be used during the market reform for the transmission business unit of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). Although the PwCs transmission use of system charge (TUOS) based on the long-run average incremental cost (LRAIC) and average transmission loss can satisfy the financial requirements, the charge allocations are not economically efficient since they do not provide any locational signal which could reflect costs imposed on the system by locating a system user in a particular geographical location. This paper describes the TUOS methodology suggested by PwC and makes a comparison with a transmission pricing method based on combination of the electricity tracing and LRAIC. The results indicate that, with electricity tracing, the charge allocations are improved in terms of fairness, as the charge reflects the geographical location and system conditions

Brazilian experience in electricity auctions: Comparing outcomes from new and old energy auctions as well as the application of the hybrid Anglo-Dutch design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rego, Erik Eduardo; Parente, Virginia

2013-01-01

Since 2004, the Government of Brazil (GoB) has acted as an intermediary between distribution and generator companies in the energy procurement sector. The GoB procures energy from generator companies through auctions of long-term energy contracts. After an auction, the winning generator companies sign contracts directly with distribution companies. In particular, the GoB runs two different auctions: one for energy from existing power plants (i.e., old energy) and another for energy from power plants that have not yet been built (i.e., new energy). This paper describes these auctions and compares the outcomes from the old and new energy auctions from 2004 to 2010 using final auction prices. The Brazilian case is particularly interesting, not only because energy is predominantly supplied by hydropower plants but also because new energy auctions reach prices below those for old energy. Therefore, it is likely that it is not necessary to run the two different energy auctions. As a secondary objective, this article analyze whether the Anglo-Dutch hybrid auction model is a better design for electricity procurement in Brazil. - Highlights: ► We analyze the outcomes from the Brazilian old and new energy auctions. ► We evaluate the Anglo-Dutch auction design. ► Outcomes from both kind of auctions reveal that the prices are statistically similar. ► One kind of auction increase competition and minimize Eletrobras' market power

A comparison of short-term outcome after laparoscopic, transverse, and midline right-sided colectomy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tanis, E.; van Geloven, A. A. W.; Bemelman, W. A.; Wind, J.

2012-01-01

The aim of the present study was to compare the laparoscopy, transverse, and midline laparotomy in right-sided colectomies with respect to short- and long-term outcome. The short- and long-term results of all patients who had an elective right-sided hemicolectomy, from January 2006 to April 2009 for

Running as a Key Lifestyle Medicine for Longevity.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Duck-Chul; Brellenthin, Angelique G; Thompson, Paul D; Sui, Xuemei; Lee, I-Min; Lavie, Carl J

Running is a popular and convenient leisure-time physical activity (PA) with a significant impact on longevity. In general, runners have a 25%-40% reduced risk of premature mortality and live approximately 3 years longer than non-runners. Recently, specific questions have emerged regarding the extent of the health benefits of running versus other types of PA, and perhaps more critically, whether there are diminishing returns on health and mortality outcomes with higher amounts of running. This review details the findings surrounding the impact of running on various health outcomes and premature mortality, highlights plausible underlying mechanisms linking running with chronic disease prevention and longevity, identifies the estimated additional life expectancy among runners and other active individuals, and discusses whether there is adequate evidence to suggest that longevity benefits are attenuated with higher doses of running. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Outcome in Comatose Patients: The Role of EEG Reactivity to Quantifiable Electrical Stimuli

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gang Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. To test the value of quantifiable electrical stimuli as a reliable method to assess electroencephalogram reactivity (EEG-R for the early prognostication of outcome in comatose patients. Methods. EEG was recorded in consecutive adults in coma after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR or stroke. EEG-R to standard electrical stimuli was tested. Each patient received a 3-month follow-up by the Glasgow-Pittsburgh cerebral performance categories (CPC or modified Rankin scale (mRS score. Results. Twenty-two patients met the inclusion criteria. In the CPR group, 6 of 7 patients with EEG-R had good outcomes (positive predictive value (PPV, 85.7% and 4 of 5 patients without EEG-R had poor outcomes (negative predictive value (NPV, 80%. The sensitivity and specificity were 85.7% and 80%, respectively. In the stroke group, 6 of 7 patients with EEG-R had good outcomes (PPV, 85.7%; all of the 3 patients without EEG-R had poor outcomes (NPV, 100%. The sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 75%, respectively. Of all patients, the presence of EEG-R showed 92.3% sensitivity, 77.7% specificity, 85.7% PPV, and 87.5% NPV. Conclusion. EEG-R to quantifiable electrical stimuli might be a good positive predictive factor for the prognosis of outcome in comatose patients after CPR or stroke.

Recent trends in the registered nurse labor market in the U.S.: short-run swings on top of long-term trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Buerhaus, Peter I; Auerbach, David I; Staiger, Douglas O

2007-01-01

Drawing from labor economics, background information is provided for a deeper understanding of recent changes in the nurse labor market. The difference between the short and long-run supply of RNs are distinguished, and the economic forces that determine RNs' decision to be active in the labor market are explained. The ways the nurse labor market may change in the next few years are discussed.

Electrical and Magnetic Performance of the LHC Short Straight Sections

CERN Document Server

Sanfilippo, S; Bottura, L; Buzio, M; Coccoli, M; García-Pérez, J; Pugnat, P; Sammut, N; Siemko, A; Smirnov, N; Stafiniak, A; Wildner, E

2006-01-01

The Short Straight Section (SSS) for the Large Hadron Collider arcs, containing in a common cryostat the lattice quadrupoles and correction magnets, have now entered series production. The foremost features of the lattice quadrupole magnets are a two-in-one structure containing two 56 mm aperture, two-layers coils wound from 15.1 mm wide NbTi cables, enclosed by the stainless steel collars and ferromagnetic yoke, and inserted into the inertia tube. Systematic cryogenic tests are performed at CERN in order to qualify these magnets with respect to their cryogenic and electrical integrity, the quench performance and the field quality in all operating conditions. This paper reports the main results obtained during tests and measurements in superfluid helium. The electrical characteristics, the insulation measurements and the quench performance are compared to the specifications and expected performances for these magnets. The field in the main quadrupole is measured using three independent systems: 10-m lon...

Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Vector Inputs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaime Buitrago

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting is crucial for the operations planning of an electrical grid. Forecasting the next 24 h of electrical load in a grid allows operators to plan and optimize their resources. The purpose of this study is to develop a more accurate short-term load forecasting method utilizing non-linear autoregressive artificial neural networks (ANN with exogenous multi-variable input (NARX. The proposed implementation of the network is new: the neural network is trained in open-loop using actual load and weather data, and then, the network is placed in closed-loop to generate a forecast using the predicted load as the feedback input. Unlike the existing short-term load forecasting methods using ANNs, the proposed method uses its own output as the input in order to improve the accuracy, thus effectively implementing a feedback loop for the load, making it less dependent on external data. Using the proposed framework, mean absolute percent errors in the forecast in the order of 1% have been achieved, which is a 30% improvement on the average error using feedforward ANNs, ARMAX and state space methods, which can result in large savings by avoiding commissioning of unnecessary power plants. The New England electrical load data are used to train and validate the forecast prediction.

OUTCOME OF INTERTROCHANTERIC FRACTURES TREATED WITH SHORT FEMORAL NAIL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yadkikar Shriniwas V, Yadkikar Vishnu S, Patel Mayank, Dhruvilkumar Gandhi, Kunkulol Rahul

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Aim: To study the functional and anatomical outcome of Inter trochanteric fractures of femur treated with Short femoral nail. Method: This was retrospective study carried out in which 60 patients (50 Male & 10 Female of 5th to 8th decade of life who underwent Short femoral nail fixation for both Stable & unstable Inter Trochanteric fractures. From the records each patient data was assessed for time required for mobilization, average fracture healing time, degree and grade of hip range of movements, complications, anatomical reduction achieved using Short femoral nail fixation. Results: 55 cases achieved Anatomical reduction. Good to Excellent Hip range of Motion was in 55 (90 % cases. Fracture union was seen in all cases. No evidence of Z Effect, AVN of femoral head, Implant failure, Fracture of femoral shaft below the Nail tip was seen in any case, However Reverse Z Effect was seen in 4 & shortening of less than 2 cm was seen in 2 cases, External rotation of 10 degree was seen in1 case. Average fracture Union time was 14 weeks. Conclusion: Short femoral nail appears to be better implant for fixation of both Stable & unstable Inter Trochanteric fractures as it fulfills the biomechanical demands being minimally invasive, less blood loss , it prevents excessive varus collapse at fracture site, produces less stress riser effect below the nail tip, Short operative time, Facilitates early mobilization & functional recovery of patients. But Anatomical fracture reduction & optimal implant placement are absolutely must for better results.

A new cascade NN based method to short-term load forecast in deregulated electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kouhi, Sajjad; Keynia, Farshid

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We are proposed a new hybrid cascaded NN based method and WT to short-term load forecast in deregulated electricity market. • An efficient preprocessor consist of normalization and shuffling of signals is presented. • In order to select the best inputs, a two-stage feature selection is presented. • A new cascaded structure consist of three cascaded NNs is used as forecaster. - Abstract: Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a major discussion in efficient operation of power systems. The electricity load is a nonlinear signal with time dependent behavior. The area of electricity load forecasting has still essential need for more accurate and stable load forecast algorithm. To improve the accuracy of prediction, a new hybrid forecast strategy based on cascaded neural network is proposed for STLF. This method is consists of wavelet transform, an intelligent two-stage feature selection, and cascaded neural network. The feature selection is used to remove the irrelevant and redundant inputs. The forecast engine is composed of three cascaded neural network (CNN) structure. This cascaded structure can be efficiently extract input/output mapping function of the nonlinear electricity load data. Adjustable parameters of the intelligent feature selection and CNN is fine-tuned by a kind of cross-validation technique. The proposed STLF is tested on PJM and New York electricity markets. It is concluded from the result, the proposed algorithm is a robust forecast method

Hyperdense basilar artery sign diagnoses acute posterior circulation stroke and predicts short-term outcome

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tan, Xiaoping [Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University at Shenyang, Department of Neurology, Shengjing Hospital, Shenyang (China); Guo, Yang [Shengjing Hospital, Department of Neurology, Shenyang (China)

2010-12-15

It is well established that the hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign is a specific marker for early ischemia in anterior circulation. However, little is known about the hyperdense basilar artery sign (HDBA) in posterior circulation. Our aim was to determine whether the HDBA sign has utility in early diagnosis of acute posterior circulation stroke and prediction of short-term outcome. Three-blinded readers examined unenhanced computed tomography scans for the HDBA sign, and materials were classified into two groups according to this sign. Vascular risk factors, admission and discharge National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores, short-term outcome, and radiological findings between the two groups were compared. One hundred and twenty-six cases of acute posterior circulation stroke (PCS) were included in the study. No statistically significant differences were found in risk factors of ischemic stroke, except atrial fibrillation (P = 0.025). Admission and discharge NIHSS scores for the positive HDBA group were significantly higher than scores for the negative HDBA group (P = 0.001, 0.002, respectively). The infarction territory for the positive HDBA group was mainly multi-region in nature (51.6%, P < 0.001), while the negative HDBA group showed mainly middle territory infarction. Significant independent predictors of short-term outcome included the HDBA sign (P < 0.001) and admission NIHSS scores (P < 0.001). Approximately half of the HDBA patients showed multi-region infarction and a serious neurological symptom. Based on our results, this sign might not only be helpful in early diagnosis of acute PCS but also be able to correlate with a poor short-term outcome. (orig.)

Divorced fathers' proximity and children's long-run outcomes: evidence from Norwegian registry data.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalil, Ariel; Mogstad, Magne; Rege, Mari; Votruba, Mark

2011-08-01

This study examines the link between divorced nonresident fathers' proximity and children's long-run outcomes, using high-quality data from Norwegian population registers. We follow (from birth to young adulthood) each of 15,992 children born into married households in Norway in the years 1975-1979 whose parents divorced during his or her childhood. We observe the proximity of the child to his or her father in each year following the divorce and link proximity to educational and economic outcomes for the child in young adulthood, controlling for a wide range of observable characteristics of the parents and the child. Our results show that closer proximity to the father following a divorce has, on average, a modest negative association with offspring's outcomes in young adulthood. The negative associations are stronger among children of highly educated fathers. Complementary Norwegian survey data show that highly educated fathers report more post-divorce conflict with their ex-wives as well as more contact with their children (measured in terms of the number of nights that the child spends at the father's house). Consequently, the father's relocation to a more distant location following the divorce may shelter the child from disruptions in the structure of the child's life as they split time between households and/or from post-divorce interparental conflict.

Econometric modeling of electricity consumption in post-war Lebanon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nasr, G.E.; Badr, E.A.; Dibeh, G.

2000-01-01

This paper applies econometric models to investigate determinants of electrical energy consumption in post-war Lebanon. The impact of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), proxied by total imports (TI), and degree days (DD) on electricity consumption is investigated over different time spans covering the period from 1993 to 1997. The time spans are chosen according to the rationing level of electricity supply. For the 1993-1994 time span, TI is found to be a significant determinant of energy consumption, whereas, DD has a negative correlation. This inconsistency might be attributed to an extensive rationing policy followed during this period. For the 1995-1997 time span which includes reduced rationing period (1995), all electrical energy consumption determinants are found to be significant at the 5% significance level. Analysis results for the rationing free 1996-1997 time span also show the significance of TI and DD at the 5% level. Furthermore, cointegration analysis for the 1995-1997 and 1996-1997 subsets reveals the existence of a long-run relationship between all variables. In addition, error correction models for both subsets are developed to predict short-run dynamics. Finally, statistical performance measures such as mean square error, mean average deviation and mean average percentage error are presented for all models

Electricity consumption and economic growth in seven South American countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Seung-Hoon; Kwak, So-Yoon

2010-01-01

This paper attempts to investigate the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among seven South American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela using widely accepted time-series techniques for the period 1975-2006. The results indicate that the causal nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth varies across countries. There is a unidirectional, short-run causality from electricity consumption to real GDP for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, and Ecuador. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth in those countries. In Venezuela, there is a bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. This implies that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in that country. However, no causal relationships exist in Peru. The documented evidence from seven South American countries can provide useful information for each government with regard to energy and growth policy.

The principle of elaboration of the relay protection against short circuits between the closely placed phases of high voltage electrical line

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Kiorsak M.

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the elaboration of the principle of relay protection against short circuits between the closely placed phases of higher voltage electrical line with self-compensation, based on the six phase’s symmetrical components. It is shown that the unsymmetrical short circuits between the closely placed phases are characterized by appearance of zero and tertiary sequences of symmetrical components. This fact can be used to choose them for relay protection. The electrical basic circuits and formulas for calculation of the passive parameters of zero and tertiary filters of currents (voltages are done. It is presented the structural-functional basic circuit scheme for relay protection against short circuits between the closely placed phases of higher voltage electrical line with self-compensation.

Cost function estimates, scale economies and technological progress in the Turkish electricity generation sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali Akkemik, K.

2009-01-01

Turkish electricity sector has undergone significant institutional changes since 1984. The recent developments since 2001 including the setting up of a regulatory agency to undertake the regulation of the sector and increasing participation of private investors in the field of electricity generation are of special interest. This paper estimates cost functions and investigates the degree of scale economies, overinvestment, and technological progress in the Turkish electricity generation sector for the period 1984-2006 using long-run and short-run translog cost functions. Estimations were done for six groups of firms, public and private. The results indicate existence of scale economies throughout the period of analysis, hence declining long-run average costs. The paper finds empirical support for the Averch-Johnson effect until 2001, i.e., firms overinvested in an environment where there are excess returns to capital. But this effect was reduced largely after 2002. Technological progress deteriorated slightly from 1984-1993 to 1994-2001 but improved after 2002. Overall, the paper found that regulation of the market under the newly established regulating agency after 2002 was effective and there are potential gains from such regulation. (author)

The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moutinho, Victor; Vieira, Joel; Carrizo Moreira, Antonio

2011-01-01

The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: → We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. → We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. → We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. → We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. → The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

A New Two-Stage Approach to Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting

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Dragan Tasić

2013-04-01

Full Text Available In the deregulated energy market, the accuracy of load forecasting has a significant effect on the planning and operational decision making of utility companies. Electric load is a random non-stationary process influenced by a number of factors which make it difficult to model. To achieve better forecasting accuracy, a wide variety of models have been proposed. These models are based on different mathematical methods and offer different features. This paper presents a new two-stage approach for short-term electrical load forecasting based on least-squares support vector machines. With the aim of improving forecasting accuracy, one more feature was added to the model feature set, the next day average load demand. As this feature is unknown for one day ahead, in the first stage, forecasting of the next day average load demand is done and then used in the model in the second stage for next day hourly load forecasting. The effectiveness of the presented model is shown on the real data of the ISO New England electricity market. The obtained results confirm the validity advantage of the proposed approach.

Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model

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Herui Cui

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Short-term electric load is significantly affected by weather, especially the temperature effects in summer. External factors can result in mutation structures in load data. Under the influence of the external temperature factors, city electric load cannot be easily forecasted as usual. This research analyzes the relationship between electricity load and daily temperature in city. An improved ARIMAX model is proposed in this paper to deal with the mutation data structures. It is found that information amount of the improved ARIMAX model is smaller than that of the classic method and its relative error is less than AR, ARMA and Sigmoid-Function ANN models. The forecasting results are more accurately fitted. This improved model is highly valuable when dealing with mutation data structure in the field of load forecasting. And it is also an effective technique in forecasting electric load with temperature effects.

Comparing patients with spinal cord infarction and cerebral infarction: clinical characteristics, and short-term outcome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naess H

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Halvor Naess, Fredrik RomiDepartment of Neurology, Haukeland University Hospital, N-5021 Bergen, NorwayBackground: To compare the clinical characteristics, and short-term outcome of spinal cord infarction and cerebral infarction.Methods: Risk factors, concomitant diseases, neurological deficits on admission, and short-term outcome were registered among 28 patients with spinal cord infarction and 1075 patients with cerebral infarction admitted to the Department of Neurology, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway. Multivariate analyses were performed with location of stroke (cord or brain, neurological deficits on admission, and short-term outcome (both Barthel Index [BI] 1 week after symptom onset and discharge home or to other institution as dependent variables.Results: Multivariate analysis showed that patients with spinal cord infarction were younger, more often female, and less afflicted by hypertension and cardiac disease than patients with cerebral infarction. Functional score (BI was lower among patients with spinal cord infarctions 1 week after onset of symptoms (P < 0.001. Odds ratio for being discharged home was 5.5 for patients with spinal cord infarction compared to cerebral infarction after adjusting for BI scored 1 week after onset (P = 0.019.Conclusion: Patients with spinal cord infarction have a risk factor profile that differs significantly from that of patients with cerebral infarction, although there are some parallels to cerebral infarction caused by atherosclerosis. Patients with spinal cord infarction were more likely to be discharged home when adjusting for early functional level on multivariate analysis.Keywords: spinal cord infarction, cerebral infarction, risk factors, short-term outcome

The NLstart2run study: Incidence and risk factors of running-related injuries in novice runners.

Science.gov (United States)

Kluitenberg, B; van Middelkoop, M; Smits, D W; Verhagen, E; Hartgens, F; Diercks, R; van der Worp, H

2015-10-01

Running is a popular form of physical activity, despite of the high incidence of running-related injuries (RRIs). Because of methodological issues, the etiology of RRIs remains unclear. Therefore, the purposes of the study were to assess the incidence of RRIs and to identify risk factors for RRIs in a large group of novice runners. In total, 1696 runners of a 6-week supervised "Start to Run" program were included in the NLstart2run study. All participants were aged between 18 and 65, completed a baseline questionnaire that covered potential risk factors, and completed at least one running diary. RRIs were registered during the program with a weekly running log. An RRI was defined as a musculo-skeletal complaint of the lower extremity or back attributed to running and hampering running ability for three consecutive training sessions. During the running program, 10.9% of the runners sustained an RRI. The multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that a higher age, higher BMI, previous musculo-skeletal complaints not attributed to sports and no previous running experience were related to RRI. These findings indicate that many novice runners participating in a short-term running program suffer from RRIs. Therefore, the identified risk factors should be considered for screening and prevention purposes. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting Employment Outcomes for Consumers in Community College Short-Term Training Programs

Science.gov (United States)

Flannery, K. Brigid; Benz, Michael R.; Yovanoff, Paul; Kato, Mary McGrath; Lindstrom, Lauren

2011-01-01

Postsecondary education has been linked to improved access to employment opportunities for individuals with and without disabilities. The purpose of this study was to determine factors associated with increased employment outcomes for Vocational Rehabilitation consumers enrolled in community college short term occupational skill training programs.…

Operative factors associated with short-term outcome in horses with large colon volvulus: 47 cases from 2006 to 2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez, L M; Fogle, C A; Baker, W T; Hughes, F E; Law, J M; Motsinger-Reif, A A; Blikslager, A T

2015-05-01

There is an important need for objective parameters that accurately predict the outcome of horses with large colon volvulus. To evaluate the predictive value of a series of histomorphometric parameters on short-term outcome, as well as the impact of colonic resection on horses with large colon volvulus. Retrospective cohort study. Adult horses admitted to the Equine and Farm Animal Veterinary Center at North Carolina State University, Peterson and Smith and Chino Valley Equine Hospitals between 2006 and 2013 that underwent an exploratory coeliotomy, diagnosed with large colon volvulus of ≥360 degrees, where a pelvic flexure biopsy was obtained, and that recovered from general anaesthesia, were selected for inclusion in the study. Logistic regression was used to determine associations between signalment, histomorphometric measurements of interstitium-to-crypt ratio, degree of haemorrhage, percentage loss of luminal and glandular epithelium, as well as colonic resection with short-term outcome (discharge from the hospital). Pelvic flexure biopsies from 47 horses with large colon volvulus were evaluated. Factors that were significantly associated with short-term outcome on univariate logistic regression were Thoroughbred breed (P = 0.04), interstitium-to-crypt ratio >1 (P = 0.02) and haemorrhage score ≥3 (P = 0.005). Resection (P = 0.92) was not found to be associated significantly with short-term outcome. No combined factors increased the likelihood of death in forward stepwise logistic regression modelling. A digitally quantified measurement of haemorrhage area strengthened the association of haemorrhage with nonsurvival in cases of large colon volvulus. Histomorphometric measurements of interstitium-to-crypt ratio and degree of haemorrhage predict short-term outcome in cases of large colon volvulus. Resection was not associated with short-term outcome in horses selected for this study. Accurate quantification of mucosal haemorrhage at the time of surgery may

Applications of Electrical Impedance Tomography (EIT): A Short Review

Science.gov (United States)

Kanti Bera, Tushar

2018-03-01

Electrical Impedance Tomography (EIT) is a tomographic imaging method which solves an ill posed inverse problem using the boundary voltage-current data collected from the surface of the object under test. Though the spatial resolution is comparatively low compared to conventional tomographic imaging modalities, due to several advantages EIT has been studied for a number of applications such as medical imaging, material engineering, civil engineering, biotechnology, chemical engineering, MEMS and other fields of engineering and applied sciences. In this paper, the applications of EIT have been reviewed and presented as a short summary. The working principal, instrumentation and advantages are briefly discussed followed by a detail discussion on the applications of EIT technology in different areas of engineering, technology and applied sciences.

Impact of the carbon price on the integrating European electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aatola, Piia; Ollikainen, Markku; Toppinen, Anne

2013-01-01

We study the impact of the carbon price on the integrating electricity market in the EU. Our theoretical framework suggests that the price of carbon has a positive but uneven impact on electricity prices depending on the marginal production plant. The carbon price may increase price differences in the short run. We apply time series analysis on daily forward data from 2003 to 2011 and investigate whether we can find empirical evidence for our analytical findings. Our results support the hypotheses that integration in electricity prices has increased over time and that the carbon price has a positive but uneven impact on the integration of prices. - Highlights: • We model the integrating European electricity market under emissions trading scheme. • We examine the impact of carbon price on the electricity market prices. • We test theoretical hypotheses with econometric models. • Results show carbon price has a positive but uneven impact on electricity prices. • Integration among electricity prices has increased during 2003–2011

The actual role of alternative energies in electricity supply in Brazil in the nineties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prado Junior, Fernando Amaral Almeida; Simoes, Nivaldo Silveira

1993-01-01

Starting in the seventies, deep changes have occurred in the electric sector, and alternative energy sources appeared as an option to hydraulic power. Presently, the effective contribution of alternative sources such as solar energy, cogeneration and energy conservation will not be predominant in the short run. Nevertheless, the study of these technologies is fundamental for the utilities' strategies. 4 refs., 5 figs

Dispositional optimism as predictor of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Heinonen, Erkki; Heiskanen, Tiia; Lindfors, Olavi; Härkäpää, Kristiina; Knekt, Paul

2017-09-01

Dispositional optimism predicts various beneficial outcomes in somatic health and treatment, but has been little studied in psychotherapy. This study investigated whether an optimistic disposition differentially predicts patients' ability to benefit from short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. A total of 326 adult outpatients with mood and/or anxiety disorder were randomized into short-term (solution-focused or short-term psychodynamic) or long-term psychodynamic therapy and followed up for 3 years. Dispositional optimism was assessed by patients at baseline with the self-rated Life Orientation Test (LOT) questionnaire. Outcome was assessed at baseline and seven times during the follow-up, in terms of depressive (BDI, HDRS), anxiety (SCL-90-ANX, HARS), and general psychiatric symptoms (SCL-90-GSI), all seven follow-up points including patients' self-reports and three including interview-based measures. Lower dispositional optimism predicted faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy. Higher optimism predicted equally rapid and eventually greater benefits in long-term, as compared to short-term, psychotherapy. Weaker optimism appeared to predict sustenance of problems early in long-term therapy. Stronger optimism seems to best facilitate engaging in and benefiting from a long-term therapy process. Closer research might clarify the psychological processes responsible for these effects and help fine-tune both briefer and longer interventions to optimize treatment effectiveness for particular patients and their psychological qualities. Weaker dispositional optimism does not appear to inhibit brief therapy from effecting symptomatic recovery. Patients with weaker optimism do not seem to gain added benefits from long-term therapy, but instead may be susceptible to prolonged psychiatric symptoms in the early stages of long-term therapy. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Electricity pricing: optimal operation and investment by industrial consumers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Outhred, H.R.; Kaye, R.J.; Sutanto, D.; Manimaran, R.; Bannister, C.H.; Lee, Y.B.

1988-08-01

Ongoing research in the areas of economically efficient electricity pricing and industrial consumer response is described. A new electricity pricing theory is described that incorporates future uncertainty and intertemporal linkages between decisions. It indicates that electricity prices should contain two terms - short-run marginal cost plus a term that reflects how each particular decision is likely to affect future global welfare. A practical implementation using spot prices and forward contracts plus financial instruments for risk sharing and decision coordination is explored, and a procedure for developing long-term pricing policy is considered. The operation of industrial plant has been investigated and models developed to optimize plant behaviour in response to spot prices and forward contracts for electricity. These models are described and results of simulation studies discussed. The economic efficiency and risk sharing advantages of this advanced tariff structure compared with a conventional time-of-use tariff are illustrated.

Young adult e-cigarette use outcome expectancies: Validity of a revised scale and a short scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Pokhrel, Pallav; Lam, Tony H; Pagano, Ian; Kawamoto, Crissy T; Herzog, Thaddeus A

2018-03-01

The revised youth e-cigarette outcome expectancies measure adds new items informed by recent qualitative research with young adult e-cigarette users, especially in the domain of positive "smoking" experience. Positive "smoking" experience represents beliefs that use of e-cigarettes provides outcomes associated with a better "smoking" alternative: for example, an alternative that is more socially approved, more suitable for indoor use, and that provides a safer means of enjoying nicotine. In addition, we tested a short, 8-item version of the measure which may be more easily incorporated into surveys. We tested the validity of the revised measure, both long and short versions, in terms of factor structure and associations of the expectancy factors with current e-cigarette use, e-cigarette use susceptibility, and e-cigarette use dependence. Participants were young adults (N=470; 65% women; mean age=20.9, SD=2.1). Results replicated the findings of the previous study as well as highlighted the importance of the added domain of positive "smoking" experience and the validity of the short scale. Furthermore, results showed that positive outcome expectancies are strongly associated with e-cigarette use dependence. The long and short versions of the revised youth e-cigarette outcome expectancies scale appear to be valid and useful for application not only among cigarette smokers and e-cigarette users but also among never smokers and never e-cigarette users. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Habituation contributes to the decline in wheel running within wheel-running reinforcement periods.

Science.gov (United States)

Belke, Terry W; McLaughlin, Ryan J

2005-02-28

Habituation appears to play a role in the decline in wheel running within an interval. Aoyama and McSweeney [Aoyama, K., McSweeney, F.K., 2001. Habituation contributes to within-session changes in free wheel running. J. Exp. Anal. Behav. 76, 289-302] showed that when a novel stimulus was presented during a 30-min interval, wheel-running rates following the stimulus increased to levels approximating those earlier in the interval. The present study sought to assess the role of habituation in the decline in running that occurs over a briefer interval. In two experiments, rats responded on fixed-interval 30-s schedules for the opportunity to run for 45 s. Forty reinforcers were completed in each session. In the first experiment, the brake and chamber lights were repeatedly activated and inactivated after 25 s of a reinforcement interval had elapsed to assess the effect on running within the remaining 20 s. Presentations of the brake/light stimulus occurred during nine randomly determined reinforcement intervals in a session. In the second experiment, a 110 dB tone was emitted after 25 s of the reinforcement interval. In both experiments, presentation of the stimulus produced an immediate decline in running that dissipated over sessions. No increase in running following the stimulus was observed in the first experiment until the stimulus-induced decline dissipated. In the second experiment, increases in running were observed following the tone in the first session as well as when data were averaged over several sessions. In general, the results concur with the assertion that habituation plays a role in the decline in wheel running that occurs within both long and short intervals. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Integration and Autonomy to Teach an Elementary Running Unit

Science.gov (United States)

Sluder, J. Brandon; Howard-Shaughnessy, Candice

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular fitness is an important aspect of overall fitness, health, and wellness, and running can be an excellent lifetime physical activity. One of the most simple and effective means of exercise, running raises heart rate in a short amount of time and can be done with little to no cost for equipment. There are many benefits to running,…

Short- and Long-Term Outcomes in Very Low Birth Weight Infants with Admission Hypothermia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hung-Yang Chang

Full Text Available Neonatal hypothermia remains a common problem and is related to elevated morbidities and mortality. However, the long-term neurodevelopmental effects of admission hypothermia are still unknown. This study attempted to determine the short-term and long-term consequences of admission hypothermia in VLBW preterm infants.This retrospective study measured the incidence and compared the outcomes of admission hypothermia in very low birth weight (VLBW preterm infants in a tertiary-level neonatal intensive care unit. Infants were divided into the following groups: normothermia (36.5-37.5°C, mild hypothermia (36.0-36.4°C, moderate hypothermia (32.0-35.9°C, and severe hypothermia (< 32°C. We compared the distribution, demographic variables, short-term outcomes, and neurodevelopmental outcomes at 24 months of corrected age among groups.We studied 341 infants: 79 with normothermia, 100 with mild hypothermia, 162 with moderate hypothermia, and 0 with severe hypothermia. Patients in the moderate hypothermia group had significantly lower gestational ages (28.1 wk vs. 29.7 wk, P < .02 and smaller birth weight (1004 g vs. 1187 g, P < .001 compared to patients in the normothermia group. Compared to normothermic infants, moderately hypothermic infants had significantly higher incidences of 1-min Apgar score < 7 (63.6% vs. 31.6%, P < .001, respiratory distress syndrome (RDS (58.0% vs. 39.2%, P = .006, and mortality (18.5% vs. 5.1%, P = .005. Moderate hypothermia did not affect neurodevelopmental outcomes at 2 years' corrected age. Mild hypothermia had no effect on short-term or long-term outcomes.Admission hypothermia was common in VLBW infants and correlated inversely with birth weight and gestational age. Although moderate hypothermia was associated with higher RDS and mortality rates, it may play a limited role among multifactorial causes of neurodevelopmental impairment.

EQUATIONS OF ELECTRIC MOTOR POWER SUPPLY UNIT DISSYMMETRY UNDER PHASE-TO-PHASE SHORT-CIRCUIT FAULT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V.Y. Tchaban

2013-10-01

Full Text Available In the paper, a formula is introduced to calculate electric motor supply unit voltage under feeding by a common transformer in the condition of a phase-to-phase short-circuit. The formula is used in every time step of electromechanical state equations integration.

Short-term outcomes of a back school program for chronic low back pain

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hodselmans, AP; Jaegers, SM; Goeken, LN; Göeken, L.N.

Objective: To assess the short-term outcome of a back school program for patients suffering from chronic, nonspecific low back pain (LBP). Design: Quasi-experimental cohort study with a waiting list control group. Setting: Dutch rehabilitation department. Participants: Experimental group (n = 14)

Electricity consumption and economic growth: Exploring panel-specific differences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karanfil, Fatih; Li, Yuanjing

2015-01-01

In this paper, we examine the long- and short-run dynamics between electricity consumption and economic activities, using panel data of per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP of 160 countries for the period of 1980–2010, accounting for the degree of electricity dependence and the level of urbanization. Furthermore, in order to capture the differences in this relationship, the full sample is divided into various subsamples based on countries' income levels, regional locations and OECD memberships. This framework is argued and found to be appropriate since the causal links and inferences arising therefrom differ considerably among the subsamples, which led us to conclude that the electricity-growth nexus is highly sensitive to regional differences, countries' income levels, urbanization rates and supply risks. -- Highlights: •The causal relationship between electricity consumption and GDP is investigated. •Cointegration techniques are used for 160 countries and 13 subsamples. •Urbanization and electricity trade are accounted for as additional covariates. •Causal inferences are found to be associated with panel-specific differences. •Policy issues are discussed based on the study results

Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inglesi, Roula

2010-01-01

In 2008, South Africa experienced a severe electricity crisis. Domestic and industrial electricity users had to suffer from black outs all over the country. It is argued that partially the reason was the lack of research on energy, locally. However, Eskom argues that the lack of capacity can only be solved by building new power plants. The objective of this study is to specify the variables that explain the electricity demand in South Africa and to forecast electricity demand by creating a model using the Engle-Granger methodology for co-integration and Error Correction models. By producing reliable results, this study will make a significant contribution that will improve the status quo of energy research in South Africa. The findings indicate that there is a long run relationship between electricity consumption and price as well as economic growth/income. The last few years in South Africa, price elasticity was rarely taken into account because of the low and decreasing prices in the past. The short-run dynamics of the system are affected by population growth, too After the energy crisis, Eskom, the national electricity supplier, is in search for substantial funding in order to build new power plants that will help with the envisaged lack of capacity that the company experienced. By using two scenarios for the future of growth, this study shows that the electricity demand will drop substantially due to the price policies agreed - until now - by Eskom and the National Energy Regulator South Africa (NERSA) that will affect the demand for some years. (author)

Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inglesi, Roula [Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of Pretoria, Main Campus, Pretoria 0002 (South Africa)

2010-01-15

In 2008, South Africa experienced a severe electricity crisis. Domestic and industrial electricity users had to suffer from black outs all over the country. It is argued that partially the reason was the lack of research on energy, locally. However, Eskom argues that the lack of capacity can only be solved by building new power plants. The objective of this study is to specify the variables that explain the electricity demand in South Africa and to forecast electricity demand by creating a model using the Engle-Granger methodology for co-integration and Error Correction models. By producing reliable results, this study will make a significant contribution that will improve the status quo of energy research in South Africa. The findings indicate that there is a long run relationship between electricity consumption and price as well as economic growth/income. The last few years in South Africa, price elasticity was rarely taken into account because of the low and decreasing prices in the past. The short-run dynamics of the system are affected by population growth, too After the energy crisis, Eskom, the national electricity supplier, is in search for substantial funding in order to build new power plants that will help with the envisaged lack of capacity that the company experienced. By using two scenarios for the future of growth, this study shows that the electricity demand will drop substantially due to the price policies agreed - until now - by Eskom and the National Energy Regulator South Africa (NERSA) that will affect the demand for some years. (author)

Effect of short-term prefeeding and body weight on wheel running and responding reinforced by the opportunity to run in a wheel.

Science.gov (United States)

Belke, Terry W; Pierce, W David; Jensen, K

2004-07-30

A biobehavioural analysis of activity anorexia suggests that the motivation for physical activity is regulated by food supply and body weight. In the present experiment, food allocation was varied within subjects by prefeeding food-deprived rats 0, 5, 10 and 15 g of food before sessions of lever pressing for wheel-running reinforcement. The experiment assessed the effects of prefeeding on rates of wheel running, lever pressing, and postreinforcement pausing. Results showed that prefeeding animals 5 g of food had no effect. Prefeeding 10 g of food reduced lever pressing for wheel running and rates of wheel running without a significant change in body weight; the effect was, however, transitory. Prefeeding 15 g of food increased the animals' body weights, resulting in a sustained decrease of wheel running and lever pressing, and an increase in postreinforcement pausing. Overall the results indicate that the motivation for physical activity is regulated by changes in local food supply, but is sustained only when there is a concomitant change in body weight.

PEMBELAJARAN LARI CEPAT DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODIFIKASI SHUTTLE RUN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suharjo

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to determine "Is Modified Shuttle Run can improve learning outcomes Elementary School fifth grade students Cenggini 02 Subdistrict Balapulang Tegal 2014". This research method is a class action research by using two cycles, each cycle consisting of four stages, namely planning, tindakkan, observation and action planning refleksi..Pada second cycle associated with the results achieved in the first cycle acts as an improvement efforts of the cycle. The subjects of this study were fifth grade students of elementary Negri Cenggini 02. Research conducted includes three domains, namely affective, cognitive and psychomotor addition to the observations made during the process of the learning process takes place. The results showed the affective, cognitive and psychomotor well categorized shows that the learning outcomes quick run using a modified shuttle run a positive impact as seen on mastery learning outcomes of students who exceed the predetermined KKM 75 In the first cycle the average value of students 75 , 71 in the second cycle the average value of 78.60 students, mastery learning in the first cycle reaches 64.29%, while in the second cycle reaches 92.86% mastery learning .mean mastery learning students has increased by 28.57%. It is concluded that learning to run faster by using a modified shuttle run has a positive effect, which can increase student interest and motivation to learn.

The Effects of Backwards Running Training on Forward Running Economy in Trained Males.

Science.gov (United States)

Ordway, Jason D; Laubach, Lloyd L; Vanderburgh, Paul M; Jackson, Kurt J

2016-03-01

Backwards running (BR) results in greater cardiopulmonary response and muscle activity compared with forward running (FR). BR has traditionally been used in rehabilitation for disorders such as stroke and lower leg extremity injuries, as well as in short bursts during various athletic events. The aim of this study was to measure the effects of sustained backwards running training on forward running economy in trained male athletes. Eight highly trained, male runners (26.13 ± 6.11 years, 174.7 ± 6.4 cm, 68.4 ± 9.24 kg, 8.61 ± 3.21% body fat, 71.40 ± 7.31 ml·kg(-1)·min(-1)) trained with BR while harnessed on a treadmill at 161 m·min(-1) for 5 weeks following a 5-week BR run-in period at a lower speed (134 m·min(-1)). Subjects were tested at baseline, postfamiliarized, and post-BR training for body composition, a ramped VO2max test, and an economy test designed for trained male runners. Subjects improved forward running economy by 2.54% (1.19 ± 1.26 ml·kg(-1)·min(-1), p = 0.032) at 215 m·min(-1). VO2max, body mass, lean mass, fat mass, and % body fat did not change (p > 0.05). Five weeks of BR training improved FR economy in healthy, trained male runners without altering VO2max or body composition. The improvements observed in this study could be a beneficial form of training to an already economical population to improve running economy.

A One-year, Short-Stay Crewed Mars Mission Using Bimodal Nuclear Thermal Electric Propulsion (BNTEP) - A Preliminary Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Burke, Laura A.; Borowski, Stanley K.; McCurdy, David R.; Packard, Thomas W.

2013-01-01

A crewed mission to Mars poses a signi cant challenge in dealing with the physiolog- ical issues that arise with the crew being exposed to a near zero-gravity environment as well as signi cant solar and galactic radiation for such a long duration. While long sur- face stay missions exceeding 500 days are the ultimate goal for human Mars exploration, short round trip, short surface stay missions could be an important intermediate step that would allow NASA to demonstrate technology as well as study the physiological e ects on the crew. However, for a 1-year round trip mission, the outbound and inbound hy- perbolic velocity at Earth and Mars can be very large resulting in a signi cant propellant requirement for a high thrust system like Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP). Similarly, a low thrust Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) system requires high electrical power lev- els (10 megawatts electric (MWe) or more), plus advanced power conversion technology to achieve the lower speci c mass values needed for such a mission. A Bimodal Nuclear Thermal Electric Propulsion (BNTEP) system is examined here that uses three high thrust Bimodal Nuclear Thermal Rocket (BNTR) engines allowing short departure and capture maneuvers. The engines also generate electrical power that drives a low thrust Electric Propulsion (EP) system used for ecient interplanetary transit. This combined system can help reduce the total launch mass, system and operational requirements that would otherwise be required for equivalent NEP or Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) mission. The BNTEP system is a hybrid propulsion concept where the BNTR reactors operate in two separate modes. During high-thrust mode operation, each BNTR provides 10's of kilo- Newtons of thrust at reasonably high speci c impulse (Isp) of 900 seconds for impulsive trans-planetary injection and orbital insertion maneuvers. When in power generation / EP mode, the BNTR reactors are coupled to a Brayton power conversion system allowing each

FRAIL Questionnaire Screening Tool and Short-Term Outcomes in Geriatric Fracture Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Gleason, Lauren Jan; Benton, Emily A; Alvarez-Nebreda, M Loreto; Weaver, Michael J; Harris, Mitchel B; Javedan, Houman

2017-12-01

There are limited screening tools to predict adverse postoperative outcomes for the geriatric surgical fracture population. Frailty is increasingly recognized as a risk assessment to capture complexity. The goal of this study was to use a short screening tool, the FRAIL scale, to categorize the level of frailty of older adults admitted with a fracture to determine the association of each frailty category with postoperative and 30-day outcomes. Retrospective cohort study. Level 1 trauma center. A total of 175 consecutive patients over age 70 years admitted to co-managed orthopedic trauma and geriatrics services. The FRAIL scale (short 5-question assessment of fatigue, resistance, aerobic capacity, illnesses, and loss of weight) classified the patients into 3 categories: robust (score = 0), prefrail (score = 1-2), and frail (score = 3-5). Postoperative outcome variables collected were postoperative complications, unplanned intensive care unit admission, length of stay (LOS), discharge disposition, and orthopedic follow-up after surgery. Thirty-day outcomes measured were 30-day readmission and 30-day mortality. Analysis of variance (1-way) and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to compare continuous variables across the 3 FRAIL categories. Fisher exact tests were used to compare categorical variables. Multiple regression analysis, adjusted by age, sex, and Charlson index, was conducted to study the association between frailty category and outcomes. FRAIL scale categorized the patients into 3 groups: robust (n = 29), prefrail (n = 73), and frail (n = 73). There were statistically significant differences between groups in terms of age, comorbidity, dementia, functional dependency, polypharmacy, and rate of institutionalization, being higher in the frailest patients. Hip fracture was the most frequent fracture, and it was more frequent as the frailty of the patient increased (48%, 61%, and 75% in robust, prefrail, and frail groups, respectively). The American

ROSA-III 100 % break integral test Run 914

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yonomoto, Taisuke; Tasaka, Kanji; Koizumi, Yasuo; Anoda, Yoshinari; Kumamaru, Hiroshige; Nakamura, Hideo; Suzuki, Mitsuhiro; Murata, Hideo

1987-05-01

This report presents the experimental data of RUN 914 conducted at the ROSA-III test facility. The facility is a volumetrically scaled (1/424) simulator for a BWR/6 with the electrically heated core, the break simulator and the scaled ECCS (emergency core cooling system). RUN 914 was a 100% split break test at the recirculation pump suction line with an assumption of HPCS diesel generator failure and conducted as one of the break area parameter tests. A peak cladding temperature (PCT) of 851 K was reached at 130 s after the break during the reflooding phase. Whole core was completely quenched by ECCS, and the effectiveness of ECCS was confirmed. The primary test results of RUN 914 are compared in this report with those of RUN 926, which was a 200 % double-ended break test. The initiation of core dryout in RUN 914 was almost the same as that in RUN 926. Duration of core dryourt was, however, longer in RUN 914 because of later actuation of ECCSs. PCT in RUN 914 was 67 K higher than that in RUN 926. (author)

Cardiovascular responses during deep water running versus shallow water running in school children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anerao Urja M, Shinde Nisha K, Khatri SM

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Overview: As the school going children especially the adolescents’ need workout routine; it is advisable that the routine is imbibed in the school’s class time table. In India as growing number of schools provide swimming as one of the recreational activities; school staff often fails to notice the boredom that is caused by the same activity. Deep as well as shallow water running can be one of the best alternatives to swimming. Hence the present study was conducted to find out the cardiovascular response in these individuals. Methods: This was a Prospective Cross-Sectional Comparative Study done in 72 healthy school going students (males grouped into 2 according to the interventions (Deep water running and Shallow water running. Cardiovascular parameters such as Heart rate (HR, Saturation of oxygen (SpO2, Maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max and Rate of Perceived Exertion (RPE were assessed. Results: Significant improvements in cardiovascular parameters were seen in both the groups i.e. by both the interventions. Conclusion: Deep water running and Shallow water running can be used to improve cardiac function in terms of various outcome measures used in the study.

Mode of the short circuit in the direct current electric traction network with different feed charts of fyder area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Mihalichenko

2012-12-01

Full Text Available In the article the results of mathematical design of the system of electric traction of direct current are represented in the mode of short circuit and different feed charts of fyder area: two-sided; one-sided. Comparison of transitional electric sizes which characterize electromagnetic processes during these malfunctions is analysed and executed.

Joint stiffness and running economy during imposed forefoot strike before and after a long run in rearfoot strike runners.

Science.gov (United States)

Melcher, Daniel A; Paquette, Max R; Schilling, Brian K; Bloomer, Richard J

2017-12-01

Research has focused on the effects of acute strike pattern modifications on lower extremity joint stiffness and running economy (RE). Strike pattern modifications on running biomechanics have mostly been studied while runners complete short running bouts. This study examined the effects of an imposed forefoot strike (FFS) on RE and ankle and knee joint stiffness before and after a long run in habitual rearfoot strike (RFS) runners. Joint kinetics and RE were collected before and after a long run. Sagittal joint kinetics were computed from kinematic and ground reaction force data that were collected during over-ground running trials in 13 male runners. RE was measured during treadmill running. Knee flexion range of motion, knee extensor moment and ankle joint stiffness were lower while plantarflexor moment and knee joint stiffness were greater during imposed FFS compared with RFS. The long run did not influence the difference in ankle and knee joint stiffness between strike patterns. Runners were more economical during RFS than imposed FFS and RE was not influenced by the long run. These findings suggest that using a FFS pattern towards the end of a long run may not be mechanically or metabolically beneficial for well-trained male RFS runners.

Voluntary resistance running induces increased hippocampal neurogenesis in rats comparable to load-free running.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Min Chul; Inoue, Koshiro; Okamoto, Masahiro; Liu, Yu Fan; Matsui, Takashi; Yook, Jang Soo; Soya, Hideaki

2013-03-14

Recently, we reported that voluntary resistance wheel running with a resistance of 30% of body weight (RWR), which produces shorter distances but higher work levels, enhances spatial memory associated with hippocampal brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) signaling compared to wheel running without a load (WR) [17]. We thus hypothesized that RWR promotes adult hippocampal neurogenesis (AHN) as a neuronal substrate underlying this memory improvement. Here we used 10-week-old male Wistar rats divided randomly into sedentary (Sed), WR, and RWR groups. All rats were injected intraperitoneally with the thymidine analogue 5-Bromo-2'-deoxuridine (BrdU) for 3 consecutive days before wheel running. We found that even when the average running distance decreased by about half, the average work levels significantly increased in the RWR group, which caused muscular adaptation (oxidative capacity) for fast-twitch plantaris muscle without causing any negative stress effects. Additionally, immunohistochemistry revealed that the total BrdU-positive cells and newborn mature cells (BrdU/NeuN double-positive) in the dentate gyrus increased in both the WR and RWR groups. These results provide new evidence that RWR has beneficial effects on AHN comparable to WR, even with short running distances. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Essays on environmental regulations in electricity markets

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yanming

Reducing the Greenhouse Gas pollution and promoting energy efficiency among consumers' energy use have been major public policy issues recently. Currently, both the United States and the European Union have set up explicit percentage requirements that require energy generators or consumers to undertake a certain percentage of their energy production or consumption from renewable sources. To achieve their renewable targets, the Tradable Green Certificates (TGC) system has been introduced in their electricity markets. Moreover, in order to promote energy conservation and achieve energy efficiency targets, price policies and price changes derived from environmental regulations have played a more important role in reducing electricity consumption. My research studies problems associated with these policy implementations. In Chapter 1, I analyze a competitive electricity market with two countries operated under a common TGC system. By using geometric illustrations, I compare the two countries' welfare when the renewable quota is chosen optimally under the common certificate market with three different situations. The policy recommendation is that when the value of damage parameter is sufficiently small, full integration with a TGC market is welfare superior to full integration of an all fossil-fuel based market with an optimal emissions standard. In Chapter 2, by analyzing a stylized theoretical model and numerical examples, I investigate the performance of the optimal renewables policy under full separation and full integration scenarios for two countries' electricity markets operated under TGC systems. In my third chapter, I look at residential electricity consumption responsiveness to increases of electricity price in the U.S. and the different effect of a price increase on electricity use for states of different income levels. My analysis reveals that raising the energy price in the short run will not give consumers much incentive to adjust their appliances and make

A system dynamics analysis of the Nordic electricity market: The transition from fossil fuelled toward a renewable supply within a liberalized electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vogstad, Klaus-Ole

2005-07-01

A system dynamic model to analyze long-term versus short-term implications of various energy policies within the context of the Nordic electricity market has been developed. The model itself provides a theory of the development of the Nordic electricity market in response to various energy policies, both in the long and the short term. The model includes generation scheduling, demand, price formation, investment decisions, resource availability and to some extent technology progress as endogenous. Thus, explanations of the model behaviour can be found from within the model. As examples of use, the model/modelling concept addresses two important questions on the energy policy agenda. First the marginal C02-emission controversy has been study, whether building gas power in Norway increase or reduce Nordic C02-emissions. The results were that in the short run, some emission reductions can be obtained due to substitution of existing coal units by operations of the market, but this effect was found to be modest. Existing gas power is also substituted, plus some bio. In the long run, there are also some investment substitutions of renewables. These effects do not appear to be significant in the short run, but in the long run, the investment rate of renewables is reduced as a consequence of reduced prices from gas. The reduced investments in renewables results in increased emissions. Some increase in demand is also to be expected from adding gas power, due to price-elasticity of demand. The net result is that gas power is likely to increase C02-emissions, which contradicts the current belief as well as results from other electricity market models that omit the long-term mechanisms such as investment decisions and technology progress. The second study analyzed the current Swedish TGC market at the time of the introduction. The purpose was to assist market design. It was found that the current Swedish TGC market design is likely to crash, due to the slow adjustment of the

A system dynamics analysis of the Nordic electricity market: The transition from fossil fuelled toward a renewable supply within a liberalized electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vogstad, Klaus-Ole

2005-01-01

A system dynamic model to analyze long-term versus short-term implications of various energy policies within the context of the Nordic electricity market has been developed. The model itself provides a theory of the development of the Nordic electricity market in response to various energy policies, both in the long and the short term. The model includes generation scheduling, demand, price formation, investment decisions, resource availability and to some extent technology progress as endogenous. Thus, explanations of the model behaviour can be found from within the model. As examples of use, the model/modelling concept addresses two important questions on the energy policy agenda. First the marginal C02-emission controversy has been study, whether building gas power in Norway increase or reduce Nordic C02-emissions. The results were that in the short run, some emission reductions can be obtained due to substitution of existing coal units by operations of the market, but this effect was found to be modest. Existing gas power is also substituted, plus some bio. In the long run, there are also some investment substitutions of renewables. These effects do not appear to be significant in the short run, but in the long run, the investment rate of renewables is reduced as a consequence of reduced prices from gas. The reduced investments in renewables results in increased emissions. Some increase in demand is also to be expected from adding gas power, due to price-elasticity of demand. The net result is that gas power is likely to increase C02-emissions, which contradicts the current belief as well as results from other electricity market models that omit the long-term mechanisms such as investment decisions and technology progress. The second study analyzed the current Swedish TGC market at the time of the introduction. The purpose was to assist market design. It was found that the current Swedish TGC market design is likely to crash, due to the slow adjustment of the

Leading Short-Term Study Abroad Courses: Motivations and Outcomes for Community College Faculty

Science.gov (United States)

Hull, Melinda Leigh

2013-01-01

This case study explored faculty motivations for choosing to lead short-term study abroad courses and the personal and professional outcomes of the undertaking as reported by the faculty members themselves. This study also identified specific instances of internationalized practice in the development and implementation of the course. Three faculty…

Estimating the short run effects of South Africa's Employment Tax Incentive on youth employment probabilities using a difference-in-differences approach

OpenAIRE

Vimal Ranchhod; Arden Finn

2014-01-01

What effect did the introduction of the Employment Tax Incentive (ETI) have on youth employment probabilities in South Africa in the short run? The ETI came into effect on the 1st of January 2014. Its purpose is to stimulate youth employment levels and ease the challenges that many youth experience in finding their first jobs. Under the ETI, firms that employ youth are eligible to claim a deduction from their taxes due, for the portion of their wage bill that is paid to certain groups of yout...

Predictors of short-term outcome in patients with acute middle cerebral artery occlusion: unsuitability of fluid-attenuated inversion recovery vascular hyperintensity scores

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chan-chan Li

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR vascular hyperintensity (FVH is used to assess leptomeningeal collateral circulation, but clinical outcomes of patients with FVH can be very different. The aim of the present study was to assess a FVH score and explore its relationship with clinical outcomes. Patients with acute ischemic stroke due to middle cerebral artery M1 occlusion underwent magnetic resonance imaging and were followed up at 10 days (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and 90 days (modified Rankin Scale to determine short-term clinical outcomes. Effective collateral circulation indirectly improved recovery of neurological function and short-term clinical outcome by extending the size of the pial penumbra and reducing infarct lesions. FVH score showed no correlation with 90-day functional clinical outcome and was not sufficient as an independent predictor of short-term clinical outcome.

Efficient integration of renewable energies in the German electricity market; Effiziente Integration erneuerbarer Energien in den deutschen Elektrizitaetsmarkt

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nabe, C.A.

2006-07-01

Liberalisation of the electricity sector aims to carry out coordination tasks within the system by markets and market prices. This study examines how markets need to be designed to carry out coordination tasks caused by integration of renewable energies in an efficient way. This question is applied to the German electricity system and recommendations are derived from identified deficits. The examination uses the structure-conduct-performance approach of industrial organisation economics. Integration of renewable energies does not result in entirely new coordination tasks but complicates those that exist in any electricity supply system. Within the short-term coordination tasks provision and operation of reserve capacity is affected by renewable energies. Long-term coordination means that the relation between fixed and variable costs of generators as well as generator flexibility has to be adjusted to the characteristics of renewable energies. The relevant short-term coordination task with the network is congestion management. In the long run costs of grid expansion and permanent congestion management have to be balanced. For the execution of short-run coordination tasks integrated and centralised market architectures are superior to decentralised architectures. The increase of short-term coordination tasks due to renewable energies caused by inflexibilities of consumers and conventional generators results in more information that has to be considered. By centralising that information in one market, an increase in productive efficiency can be obtained. In Germany the increased coordination tasks are determined by the integration of wind generators into the electricity system. The present German market architecture results in inefficiencies in short-term coordination. This is demonstrated by an analysis of procedural rules and prices of the ancillary service markets. They demonstrate that market performance is low and significant deviations from competitive prices

The impact of intermittent sources of energy on the market price of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adigbli, Patrick; Mahuet, Audrey

2013-01-01

Parallel to liberalization of the electricity market, these past twenty years have been marked by a strong expansion of renewable energy in Europe. The increasing share of renewables in the energy mix - with a goal set by the European Commission at 20% by 2020 - has an impact on market prices. In the short run, subsidized intermittent energy may lead to lower prices or even to negative prices during certain periods of the year

Running functional sport vest and short for e-textile applications

Science.gov (United States)

Baskan, H.; Acikgoz, H.; Atakan, R.; Eryuruk, H.; Akalın, N.; Kose, H.; Li, Y.; Kursun Bahadir, S.; Kalaoglu, F.

2017-10-01

Sports garments with functional properties have become crucial as well as comfort properties since they improve the wearer performance. For this reason, sport vest and short having high elastic recovery with fall detection sensor, were designed and produced by using flat-bed knitting machine. Comfort properties of short and vest were tested with several test instruments and; tensile strength of elastomeric yarn, air permeability, moisture management, drape and objective handle (FAST tests) of garments were achieved. It was proved that short and vest samples have good comfort properties as a functional sport garment. It was also tested that fall-detection sensor can work efficiently by using a mobile phone application.

ROSA-III 50 % break integral test RUN 916

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yonomoto, Taisuke; Tasaka, Kanji; Koizumi, Yasuo; Anoda, Yoshinari; Kumamaru, Hiroshige; Nakamura, Hideo; Suzuki, Mitsuhiro; Murata, Hideo

1985-08-01

This report presents the experimental data of RUN 916 conducted at the ROSA-III test facility. The facility is a volumetrically scaled (1/424) simulator for a BWR/6 with the electrically heated core, the break simulator and the scaled ECCS(emergency core cooling system). RUN 916 was a 50 % split break test at the recirculation pump suction line with an assumption of HPCS diegel generator failure and conducted as one of the break area parameter tests. A peak cladding temperature (PCT) of 917 K was reached at 190 s after the break during the reflooding phase. Whole core was completely quenched by ECCS, and the effectiveness of ECCS was confermed. The primary test results of RUN 916 are compared in this report with those of RUN 926, which was a 200 % double-ended break test. The initiation of core dryout in RUN 916 was later than that in RUN 926 because of the smaller discharge flow rate. Duration of core dryourt was, however, longer in RUN 916 because of later actuation of ECCSs. PCT in RUN 916 was 133 K higher than that in RUN 926. (author)

105-KE Basin Pilot Run design plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sherrell, D.L.

1994-01-01

This document identifies all design deliverables and procedures applicable to the 105-KE Basin Pilot Run. It also establishes a general design strategy, defines interface control requirements, and covers planning for mechanical, electrical, instrument/control system, and equipment installation design

Short-time action electric generators to power physical devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glebov, I.A.; Kasharskij, Eh.G.; Rutberg, F.G.; Khutoretskij, G.M.

1982-01-01

Requirements to be met by power-supply sources of the native electrophysical facilities have been analyzed and trends in designing foreign electric machine units of short-time action have been considered. Specifications of a generator, manufactured in the form of synchronous bipolar turbogenerator with an all-forged rotor with indirect air cooling of the rotor and stator windings are presented. Front parts of the stator winding are additionally fixed using glass-textolite rings, brackets and gaskets. A flywheel, manufactured in the form of all-forged steel cylinder is joined directly with the generator rotor by means of a half-coupling. An acceleration asynchronous engine with a phase rotor of 4 MW nominal capacity is located on the opposite side of the flywheel. The generator peak power is 242 MVxA; power factor = 0.9; energy transferred to the load 5per 1 pulse =00 MJ; the flywheel weight 81 t

The impacts of price responsiveness on strategic equilibrium in competitive electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bompard, Ettore; Ma, Yuchao; Napoli, Roberto [Department of Electrical Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, C.so Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy); Abrate, Graziano; Ragazzi, Elena [Ceris-CNR, Via Real Collegio, 30, 10024 Moncalieri (Italy)

2007-06-15

One of the most important aspects that may affect market welfare is that related to the low demand responsiveness to price. This situation may greatly impact the market performance causing low efficiency, high prices and a disproportional allocation of surpluses. The structure of electricity markets is usually oligopolistic; producers may bid prices higher than their marginal costs to the short run wholesale market, inducing outcome deviations from the perfect competitive benchmark. The possibility of gaming the market is amplified in the presence of low demand responsiveness to price. This paper proposes a model to assess the role of demand elasticity in mitigating the effects of supply side strategic bidding behavior. We model the supply side in a conjectural supply function (CSF) framework, which allows incorporation of exogenous changes in demand elasticity and different levels of competition in a given market. The impacts of demand responsiveness on the market performances are assessed through a set of proposed indices that are applied to a model of the Italian market. (author)

The impacts of price responsiveness on strategic equilibrium in competitive electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bompard, Ettore; Ma, Yuchao; Napoli, Roberto; Abrate, Graziano; Ragazzi, Elena

2007-01-01

One of the most important aspects that may affect market welfare is that related to the low demand responsiveness to price. This situation may greatly impact the market performance causing low efficiency, high prices and a disproportional allocation of surpluses. The structure of electricity markets is usually oligopolistic; producers may bid prices higher than their marginal costs to the short run wholesale market, inducing outcome deviations from the perfect competitive benchmark. The possibility of gaming the market is amplified in the presence of low demand responsiveness to price. This paper proposes a model to assess the role of demand elasticity in mitigating the effects of supply side strategic bidding behavior. We model the supply side in a conjectural supply function (CSF) framework, which allows incorporation of exogenous changes in demand elasticity and different levels of competition in a given market. The impacts of demand responsiveness on the market performances are assessed through a set of proposed indices that are applied to a model of the Italian market. (author)

Adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting using artificial neural networks in the restructured power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamin, H.Y.; Shahidehpour, S.M.; Li, Z.

2004-01-01

This paper proposes a comprehensive model for the adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in the restructured power markets. The model consists: price simulation, price forecasting, and performance analysis. The factors impacting the electricity price forecasting, including time factors, load factors, reserve factors, and historical price factor are discussed. We adopted ANN and proposed a new definition for the MAPE using the median to study the relationship between these factors and market price as well as the performance of the electricity price forecasting. The reserve factors are included to enhance the performance of the forecasting process. The proposed model handles the price spikes more efficiently due to considering the median instead of the average. The IEEE 118-bus system and California practical system are used to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model. (author)

Is Textbook Outcome a valuable composite measure for short-term outcomes of gastrointestinal treatments in the Netherlands using hospital information system data? A retrospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Salet, Nèwel; Bremmer, Rolf H; Verhagen, Marc A M T; Ekkelenkamp, Vivian E; Hansen, Bettina E; de Jonge, Pieter J F; de Man, Rob A

2018-03-01

To develop a feasible model for monitoring short-term outcome of clinical care trajectories for hospitals in the Netherlands using data obtained from hospital information systems for identifying hospital variation. Retrospective analysis of collected data from hospital information systems combined with clinical indicator definitions to define and compare short-term outcomes for three gastrointestinal pathways using the concept of Textbook Outcome. 62 Dutch hospitals. 45 848 unique gastrointestinal patients discharged in 2015. A broad range of clinical outcomes including length of stay, reintervention, readmission and doctor-patient counselling. Patients undergoing endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) for gallstone disease (n=4369), colonoscopy for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD; n=19 330) and colonoscopy for colorectal cancer screening (n=22 149) were submitted to five suitable clinical indicators per treatment. The percentage of all patients who met all five criteria was 54%±9% (SD) for ERCP treatment. For IBD this was 47%±7% of the patients, and for colon cancer screening this number was 85%±14%. This study shows that reusing data obtained from hospital information systems combined with clinical indicator definitions can be used to express short-term outcomes using the concept of Textbook Outcome without any excess registration. This information can provide meaningful insight into the clinical care trajectory on the level of individual patient care. Furthermore, this concept can be applied to many clinical trajectories within gastroenterology and beyond for monitoring and improving the clinical pathway and outcome for patients. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Short-Term Multiple Forecasting of Electric Energy Loads for Sustainable Demand Planning in Smart Grids for Smart Homes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adeshina Y. Alani

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Energy consumption in the form of fuel or electricity is ubiquitous globally. Among energy types, electricity is crucial to human life in terms of cooking, warming and cooling of shelters, powering of electronic devices as well as commercial and industrial operations. Users of electronic devices sometimes consume fluctuating amounts of electricity generated from smart-grid infrastructure owned by the government or private investors. However, frequent imbalance is noticed between the demand and supply of electricity, hence effective planning is required to facilitate its distribution among consumers. Such effective planning is stimulated by the need to predict future consumption within a short period. Although several interesting classical techniques have been used for such predictions, they still require improvement for the purpose of reducing significant predictive errors when used for short-term load forecasting. This research develops a near-zero cooperative probabilistic scenario analysis and decision tree (PSA-DT model to address the lacuna of enormous predictive error faced by the state-of-the-art models. The PSA-DT is based on a probabilistic technique in view of the uncertain nature of electricity consumption, complemented by a DT to reinforce the collaboration of the two techniques. Based on detailed experimental analytics on residential, commercial and industrial data loads, the PSA-DT model outperforms the state-of-the-art models in terms of accuracy to a near-zero error rate. This implies that its deployment for electricity demand planning will be of great benefit to various smart-grid operators and homes.

Short and medium term outcomes after rollerball endometrial ablation for menorrhagia.

Science.gov (United States)

Fraser, I S; Angsuwathana, S; Mahmoud, F; Yezerski, S

1993-04-05

To review prospectively the intraoperative, short and medium term outcomes of patients treated by rollerball endometrial ablation during the learning curve for this relatively new procedure. Seventy-seven women with menorrhagia (71 with dysfunctional bleeding; six with additional small intramural myomas) underwent hysteroscopic rollerball endometrial ablation by coagulation diathermy during 1.5% glycine irrigation, after a two-month period of hormonal suppression. OPERATIVE AND SHORT-TERM EFFECTS: These were recorded at operation and six-week follow-up. No serious short-term complications were recorded. Objective measurement of intraoperative blood loss was always less than 20 mL. One woman experienced uterine perforation with a narrow cervical dilator which did not interfere with the ablation, and two patients had mild postoperative uterine infections. One patient experienced persistent postoperative pain. MEDIUM-TERM OUTCOME: This was recorded at each visit, or by telephone, and confirmed by questionnaire at one year. Twenty-five per cent achieved complete amenorrhoea, 29% staining only, 30% light periods, 10% "normal" or erratic periods and 6% were unchanged. Five patients underwent a second ablation, and three of these later underwent hysterectomy. Measured menstrual blood loss fell from 104 +/- 19 mL (mean +/- standard error of mean) to 1.7 +/- 1.1 mL at six months in 18 women. Other menstrual symptoms were also often dramatically reduced. Of those women with dysmenorrhoea, 33% were cured and 43% markedly improved; of those with midcycle pain, 28% were cured and 53% markedly improved; of those with significant premenstrual symptoms, 13% were cured, 47% markedly improved, 11% unchanged, and 6% were worse. This new procedure is a safe and effective treatment for menorrhagia caused by dysfunctional uterine bleeding, with impressive ancillary benefits for dysmenorrhoea, midcycle pain and premenstrual tension. It is often called minimally invasive surgery, but it

Electric power industry restructuring and ROE: The case of Korea Electric Power Corporation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Won, Gu-Hwan

2007-01-01

Korea's electric power industry was previously run by Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) in a natural monopoly-type structure. As economy of scale was waning in influence and management effectiveness began to increase in importance, KEPCO was divided into six subsidiaries and faced competition beginning in April 2001. This study evaluates the restructuring process for Korea's power industry and analyzes the financial outcomes based on return on equity (ROE). The results show that the ROE ratio increased. In the analysis period (1993-2004), the financial ratio showed a better performance than that before restructuring. However, productivity ratios such as productivity of capital (or gross value added to total assets) and gross value added to property, plant, and equipment decreased compared to the situation before restructuring. It is believed that the results were due to the increased financial leverage of KEPCO. For this reason, KEPCO should make further efforts to manage its debt in a systematic way

Short-Term Synaptic Plasticity Regulation in Solution-Gated Indium-Gallium-Zinc-Oxide Electric-Double-Layer Transistors.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Chang Jin; Liu, Yang Hui; Zhu, Li Qiang; Feng, Ping; Shi, Yi; Wan, Qing

2016-04-20

In the biological nervous system, synaptic plasticity regulation is based on the modulation of ionic fluxes, and such regulation was regarded as the fundamental mechanism underlying memory and learning. Inspired by such biological strategies, indium-gallium-zinc-oxide (IGZO) electric-double-layer (EDL) transistors gated by aqueous solutions were proposed for synaptic behavior emulations. Short-term synaptic plasticity, such as paired-pulse facilitation, high-pass filtering, and orientation tuning, was experimentally emulated in these EDL transistors. Most importantly, we found that such short-term synaptic plasticity can be effectively regulated by alcohol (ethyl alcohol) and salt (potassium chloride) additives. Our results suggest that solution gated oxide-based EDL transistors could act as the platforms for short-term synaptic plasticity emulation.

ELECTRICITY SUPPLY, FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION, CO2 EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: IMPLICATIONS AND POLICY OPTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chibueze Eze Nnaji

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the causal relationship among electricity supply, fossil fuel consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1971-2009, in a multivariate framework.Using the bound test approach to cointegration, we found a short-run as well as a long-run relationship among the variables with a positive and statistically significant relationship between CO2 emissions and fossil fuel consumption. The findings also indicate that economic growth is associated with increased CO2 emissions while a positive relationship exists between electricity supply and CO2 emissions revealing the poor nature of electricity supply in Nigeria. Further, the Granger causality test results indicate that electricity supply has not impacted significantly on economic growth in Nigeria. The results also strongly imply that policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions in Nigeria will not impede economic growth. The paper therefore concludes that a holistic energy planning and investment in energy infrastructure is needed to drive economic growth. In the long-run however, it is possible to meet the energy needs of the country, ensure sustainable development and at the same time reduce CO2 emissions by developing alternatives to fossil fuel consumption, the main source of CO2 emissions.

Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio [DIAM, Seconda Universita degli Studi di Napoli, Via Roma 29, 81031 Aversa (CE) (Italy)

2009-09-15

The influence of economic and demographic variables on the annual electricity consumption in Italy has been investigated with the intention to develop a long-term consumption forecasting model. The time period considered for the historical data is from 1970 to 2007. Different regression models were developed, using historical electricity consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita) and population. A first part of the paper considers the estimation of GDP, price and GDP per capita elasticities of domestic and non-domestic electricity consumption. The domestic and non-domestic short run price elasticities are found to be both approximately equal to -0.06, while long run elasticities are equal to -0.24 and -0.09, respectively. On the contrary, the elasticities of GDP and GDP per capita present higher values. In the second part of the paper, different regression models, based on co-integrated or stationary data, are presented. Different statistical tests are employed to check the validity of the proposed models. A comparison with national forecasts, based on complex econometric models, such as Markal-Time, was performed, showing that the developed regressions are congruent with the official projections, with deviations of {+-}1% for the best case and {+-}11% for the worst. These deviations are to be considered acceptable in relation to the time span taken into account. (author)

Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio

2009-01-01

The influence of economic and demographic variables on the annual electricity consumption in Italy has been investigated with the intention to develop a long-term consumption forecasting model. The time period considered for the historical data is from 1970 to 2007. Different regression models were developed, using historical electricity consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita) and population. A first part of the paper considers the estimation of GDP, price and GDP per capita elasticities of domestic and non-domestic electricity consumption. The domestic and non-domestic short run price elasticities are found to be both approximately equal to -0.06, while long run elasticities are equal to -0.24 and -0.09, respectively. On the contrary, the elasticities of GDP and GDP per capita present higher values. In the second part of the paper, different regression models, based on co-integrated or stationary data, are presented. Different statistical tests are employed to check the validity of the proposed models. A comparison with national forecasts, based on complex econometric models, such as Markal-Time, was performed, showing that the developed regressions are congruent with the official projections, with deviations of ±1% for the best case and ±11% for the worst. These deviations are to be considered acceptable in relation to the time span taken into account. (author)

The efficacy of downhill running as a method to enhance running economy in trained distance runners.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Andrew J; Ingham, Stephen A; Folland, Jonathan P

2018-06-01

Running downhill, in comparison to running on the flat, appears to involve an exaggerated stretch-shortening cycle (SSC) due to greater impact loads and higher vertical velocity on landing, whilst also incurring a lower metabolic cost. Therefore, downhill running could facilitate higher volumes of training at higher speeds whilst performing an exaggerated SSC, potentially inducing favourable adaptations in running mechanics and running economy (RE). This investigation assessed the efficacy of a supplementary 8-week programme of downhill running as a means of enhancing RE in well-trained distance runners. Nineteen athletes completed supplementary downhill (-5% gradient; n = 10) or flat (n = 9) run training twice a week for 8 weeks within their habitual training. Participants trained at a standardised intensity based on the velocity of lactate turnpoint (vLTP), with training volume increased incrementally between weeks. Changes in energy cost of running (E C ) and vLTP were assessed on both flat and downhill gradients, in addition to maximal oxygen uptake (⩒O 2max). No changes in E C were observed during flat running following downhill (1.22 ± 0.09 vs 1.20 ± 0.07 Kcal kg -1  km -1 , P = .41) or flat run training (1.21 ± 0.13 vs 1.19 ± 0.12 Kcal kg -1  km -1 ). Moreover, no changes in E C during downhill running were observed in either condition (P > .23). vLTP increased following both downhill (16.5 ± 0.7 vs 16.9 ± 0.6 km h -1 , P = .05) and flat run training (16.9 ± 0.7 vs 17.2 ± 1.0 km h -1 , P = .05), though no differences in responses were observed between groups (P = .53). Therefore, a short programme of supplementary downhill run training does not appear to enhance RE in already well-trained individuals.

Running With an Elastic Lower Limb Exoskeleton.

Science.gov (United States)

Cherry, Michael S; Kota, Sridhar; Young, Aaron; Ferris, Daniel P

2016-06-01

Although there have been many lower limb robotic exoskeletons that have been tested for human walking, few devices have been tested for assisting running. It is possible that a pseudo-passive elastic exoskeleton could benefit human running without the addition of electrical motors due to the spring-like behavior of the human leg. We developed an elastic lower limb exoskeleton that added stiffness in parallel with the entire lower limb. Six healthy, young subjects ran on a treadmill at 2.3 m/s with and without the exoskeleton. Although the exoskeleton was designed to provide ~50% of normal leg stiffness during running, it only provided 24% of leg stiffness during testing. The difference in added leg stiffness was primarily due to soft tissue compression and harness compliance decreasing exoskeleton displacement during stance. As a result, the exoskeleton only supported about 7% of the peak vertical ground reaction force. There was a significant increase in metabolic cost when running with the exoskeleton compared with running without the exoskeleton (ANOVA, P exoskeletons for human running are human-machine interface compliance and the extra lower limb inertia from the exoskeleton.

Nonhydrostatic and surfbeat model predictions of extreme wave run-up in fringing reef environments

Science.gov (United States)

Lashley, Christopher H.; Roelvink, Dano; van Dongeren, Ap R.; Buckley, Mark L.; Lowe, Ryan J.

2018-01-01

The accurate prediction of extreme wave run-up is important for effective coastal engineering design and coastal hazard management. While run-up processes on open sandy coasts have been reasonably well-studied, very few studies have focused on understanding and predicting wave run-up at coral reef-fronted coastlines. This paper applies the short-wave resolving, Nonhydrostatic (XB-NH) and short-wave averaged, Surfbeat (XB-SB) modes of the XBeach numerical model to validate run-up using data from two 1D (alongshore uniform) fringing-reef profiles without roughness elements, with two objectives: i) to provide insight into the physical processes governing run-up in such environments; and ii) to evaluate the performance of both modes in accurately predicting run-up over a wide range of conditions. XBeach was calibrated by optimizing the maximum wave steepness parameter (maxbrsteep) in XB-NH and the dissipation coefficient (alpha) in XB-SB) using the first dataset; and then applied to the second dataset for validation. XB-NH and XB-SB predictions of extreme wave run-up (Rmax and R2%) and its components, infragravity- and sea-swell band swash (SIG and SSS) and shoreline setup (), were compared to observations. XB-NH more accurately simulated wave transformation but under-predicted shoreline setup due to its exclusion of parameterized wave-roller dynamics. XB-SB under-predicted sea-swell band swash but overestimated shoreline setup due to an over-prediction of wave heights on the reef flat. Run-up (swash) spectra were dominated by infragravity motions, allowing the short-wave (but not wave group) averaged model (XB-SB) to perform comparably well to its more complete, short-wave resolving (XB-NH) counterpart. Despite their respective limitations, both modes were able to accurately predict Rmax and R2%.

Net fossil energy savings for alternative mixes in various electric supply systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Essam, P.; Stocks, K.J.

1978-11-01

The actual and projected electric power station building programs of several countries and regions have been examined to determine what effect the introduction of nuclear power has on fossil fuel usage by the electricity system. It was found that (1) nuclear power leads directly to savings in fossil fuel usage, a larger nuclear component leading to larger savings; (2) individual nuclear stations rapidly wipe out the energy 'debt' incurred during building; and (3) the relatively short periods of consolidation in the early stages of a nation's building program usually prevent the nuclear component from going into energy 'debt'. Assessments of the energy requirements to build and run various types of power station have been made from the available literature

Market data analysis and short-term price forecasting in the Iran electricity market with pay-as-bid payment mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bigdeli, N.; Afshar, K.; Amjady, N.

2009-01-01

Market data analysis and short-term price forecasting in Iran electricity market as a market with pay-as-bid payment mechanism has been considered in this paper. The data analysis procedure includes both correlation and predictability analysis of the most important load and price indices. The employed data are the experimental time series from Iran electricity market in its real size and is long enough to make it possible to take properties such as non-stationarity of market into account. For predictability analysis, the bifurcation diagrams and recurrence plots of the data have been investigated. The results of these analyses indicate existence of deterministic chaos in addition to non-stationarity property of the system which implies short-term predictability. In the next step, two artificial neural networks have been developed for forecasting the two price indices in Iran's electricity market. The models' input sets are selected regarding four aspects: the correlation properties of the available data, the critiques of Iran's electricity market, a proper convergence rate in case of sudden variations in the market price behavior, and the omission of cumulative forecasting errors. The simulation results based on experimental data from Iran electricity market are representative of good performance of the developed neural networks in coping with and forecasting of the market behavior, even in the case of severe volatility in the market price indices. (author)

Electric vehicles and India's low carbon passenger transport: A long-term co-benefits assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal; Shukla, Priyadarshi

2017-01-01

Electric vehicles have attracted the attention of India's policy makers as clean technology alternatives due to their multiple advantages like higher efficiency and lower air pollution in short to medium term and reduced CO2 emissions as electricity gets decarbonized in the long-run under low......) are related to sourcing of raw materials for batteries and battery reprocessing and disposal. The findings show that: i) in the reference scenario, the EVs 2-wheelers will achieve a significant share by 2050. Electric 4-wheelers though would have a small share even in 2050; ii) EV push policies though lead...... to significant diffusion of electric 2- wheelers in India by 2030. These policies enhance diffusion of electric 4-wheelers only if financial incentives are sustained in the long-term, iii) the application of global carbon price on the Indian economy in the 2° C stabilization scenario increases competitiveness...

Analysing Learning Outcomes in an Electrical Engineering Curriculum Using Illustrative Verbs Derived from Bloom's Taxonomy

Science.gov (United States)

Meda, Lawrence; Swart, Arthur James

2018-01-01

Learning outcomes are essential to any curriculum in education, where they need to be clear, observable and measurable. However, some academics structure learning outcomes in a way that does not promote student learning. The purpose of this article is to present the analyses of learning outcomes of an Electrical Engineering curriculum offered at a…

EVALUATING THE SHORT RUN EFFECTS OF U.S. CRUDE OIL INVENTORY LEVELS ON WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE FROM 1993 - 2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tobi Olasojiand

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The focus of this research was to investigate the short-term influence of U.S. crude oil inventories on WTI crude oil prices from 1993 to 2013. This study is important for policy makers who wish to reduce the persistent and growing price volatility of crude oil and its related products as well as businesses such as airline companies who wish to make annual budgetary sales decisions. Using OLS multiple regression, cointegration, VECM and Ex-post forecast techniques; we provide evidence of an inelastic relationship in which a 1% increase in U.S. crude oil inventories is associated with 0.46% decrease in WTI crude oil prices; however this was only valid for 22% of WTI crude oil price variation. We also find that past data on U.S. crude oil inventories could be used to predict future WTI crude oil prices movement. Contrary to literature, the results of the VECM analysis indicate there is no short-run relationship between both variables over the trajectory.

Maximizing the short circuit current of organic solar cells by partial decoupling of electrical and optical properties

Science.gov (United States)

Qarony, Wayesh; Hossain, Mohammad I.; Jovanov, Vladislav; Knipp, Dietmar; Tsang, Yuen Hong

2018-03-01

The partial decoupling of electronic and optical properties of organic solar cells allows for realizing solar cells with increased short circuit current and energy conversion efficiency. The proposed device consists of an organic solar cell conformally prepared on the surface of an array of single and double textured pyramids. The device geometry allows for increasing the optical thickness of the organic solar cell, while the electrical thickness is equal to the nominal thickness of the solar cell. By increasing the optical thickness of the solar cell, the short circuit current is distinctly increased. The quantum efficiency and short circuit current are determined using finite-difference time-domain simulations of the 3D solar cell structure. The influence of different solar cell designs on the quantum efficiency and short circuit current is discussed and optimal device dimensions are proposed.

Self-reported immature defense style as a predictor of outcome in short-term and long-term psychotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Laaksonen, Maarit A; Sirkiä, Carlos; Knekt, Paul; Lindfors, Olavi

2014-07-01

Identification of pretreatment patient characteristics predictive of psychotherapy outcome could help to guide treatment choices. This study evaluates patients' initial level of immature defense style as a predictor of the outcome of short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. In the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, 326 adult outpatients with mood or anxiety disorder were randomized to individual short-term (psychodynamic or solution-focused) or long-term (psychodynamic) psychotherapy. Their defense style was assessed at baseline using the 88-item Defense Style Questionnaire and classified as low or high around the median value of the respective score. Both specific (Beck Depression Inventory [BDI], Hamilton Depression Rating Scale [HDRS], Symptom Check List Anxiety Scale [SCL-90-Anx], Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale [HARS]) and global (Symptom Check List Global Severity Index [SCL-90-GSI], Global Assessment of Functioning Scale [GAF]) psychiatric symptoms were measured at baseline and 3-7 times during a 3-year follow-up. Patients with high use of immature defense style experienced greater symptom reduction in long-term than in short-term psychotherapy by the end of the 3-year follow-up (50% vs. 34%). Patients with low use of immature defense style experienced faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy during the first year of follow-up (34% vs. 19%). Knowledge of patients' initial level of immature defense style may potentially be utilized in tailoring treatments. Further research on defense styles as outcome predictors in psychotherapies of different types is needed.

Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Cointegration and dynamic causality analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jahangir Alam, Mohammad; Ara Begum, Ismat; Buysse, Jeroen; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

2012-01-01

The paper investigates the possible existence of dynamic causality between energy consumption, electricity consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Bangladesh. First, we have tested cointegration relationships using the Johansen bi-variate cointegration model. This is complemented with an analysis of an auto-regressive distributed lag model to examine the results' robustness. Then, the Granger short-run, the long-run and strong causality are tested with a vector error correction modelling framework. The results indicate that uni-directional causality exists from energy consumption to economic growth both in the short and the long-run while a bi-directional long-run causality exists between electricity consumption and economic growth but no causal relationship exists in short-run. The strong causality results indicate bi-directional causality for both the cases. A uni-directional causality runs from energy consumption to CO 2 emission for the short-run but feedback causality exists in the long-run. CO 2 Granger causes economic growth both in the short and in the long-run. An important policy implication is that energy (electricity as well) can be considered as an important factor for the economic growth in Bangladesh. Moreover, as higher energy consumption also means higher pollution in the long-run, policy makers should stimulate alternative energy sources for meeting up the increasing energy demand. - Highlights: ► Dynamic causality among energy and electricity consumption, CO 2 and economic growth. ► Uni-directional causality exists from energy consumption to economic growth. ► Bi-directional causality exists between electricity consumption and economic growth. ► Feedback causality exists between CO 2 emission to energy consumption. ► CO 2 Granger causes economic growth both in the short and in the long-run.

CHOOSING THE POWER OF TRACTION ELECTRIC MOTORS FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES

OpenAIRE

O. Smirnov; A. Borisenko

2017-01-01

Recommendations on choosing the power of the electric motor, depending on the weight of the vehicle, its speed and the run distance in the «only electricity» mode are developed. Based on mathematical modeling and a number of field tests of electric vehicles, a three-dimensional dependance of the power on the weight and the speed set is built and conclusions are presented.

CHOOSING THE POWER OF TRACTION ELECTRIC MOTORS FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Smirnov

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Recommendations on choosing the power of the electric motor, depending on the weight of the vehicle, its speed and the run distance in the «only electricity» mode are developed. Based on mathematical modeling and a number of field tests of electric vehicles, a three-dimensional dependance of the power on the weight and the speed set is built and conclusions are presented.

Short-Term Electricity-Load Forecasting Using a TSK-Based Extreme Learning Machine with Knowledge Representation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chan-Uk Yeom

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses short-term electricity-load forecasting using an extreme learning machine (ELM with automatic knowledge representation from a given input-output data set. For this purpose, we use a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK-based ELM to develop a systematic approach to generating if-then rules, while the conventional ELM operates without knowledge information. The TSK-ELM design includes a two-phase development. First, we generate an initial random-partition matrix and estimate cluster centers for random clustering. The obtained cluster centers are used to determine the premise parameters of fuzzy if-then rules. Next, the linear weights of the TSK fuzzy type are estimated using the least squares estimate (LSE method. These linear weights are used as the consequent parameters in the TSK-ELM design. The experiments were performed on short-term electricity-load data for forecasting. The electricity-load data were used to forecast hourly day-ahead loads given temperature forecasts; holiday information; and historical loads from the New England ISO. In order to quantify the performance of the forecaster, we use metrics and statistical characteristics such as root mean squared error (RMSE as well as mean absolute error (MAE, mean absolute percent error (MAPE, and R-squared, respectively. The experimental results revealed that the proposed method showed good performance when compared with a conventional ELM with four activation functions such sigmoid, sine, radial basis function, and rectified linear unit (ReLU. It possessed superior prediction performance and knowledge information and a small number of rules.

Wound management and outcome of 595 electrical burns in a major burn center.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Haisheng; Tan, Jianglin; Zhou, Junyi; Yuan, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Jiaping; Peng, Yizhi; Wu, Jun; Luo, Gaoxing

2017-06-15

Electrical burns are important causes of trauma worldwide. This study aims to analyze the clinical characteristics, wound management, and outcome of electric burns. This retrospective study was performed at the Institute of Burn Research of the Third Military Medical University during 2013-2015. Data including the demographics, injury patterns, wound treatment, and outcomes were collected and analyzed. A total of 595 electrical burn patients (93.8% males) were included. The average age was 37.3 ± 14.6 y, and most patients (73.5%) were aged 19∼50 years. Most patients (67.2%) were injured in work-related circumstances. The mean total body surface area was 8.8 ± 11.8% and most wounds (63.5%) were full-thickness burns. Operation times of high-voltage burns and current burns were higher than those of low-voltage burns and arc burns, respectively. Of the 375 operated patients, 83.2% (n = 312) underwent skin autografting and 49.3% (n = 185) required skin flap coverage. Common types of skin flaps were adjacent (50.3%), random (42.2%), and pedicle (35.7%). Amputation was performed in 107 cases (18.0%) and concentrated on the hands (43.9%) and upper limbs (39.3%). The mean length of stay was 42.9 ± 46.3 d and only one death occurred (0.2%). Current burns and higher numbers of operations were major risk factors for amputation and length of stay, respectively. Electrical burns mainly affected adult males with occupational exposures in China. Skin autografts and various skin flaps were commonly used for electric burn wound management. More standardized and effective strategies of treatment and prevention are still needed to decrease amputation rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Is There an Economical Running Technique? A Review of Modifiable Biomechanical Factors Affecting Running Economy.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Isabel S

2016-06-01

Running economy (RE) has a strong relationship with running performance, and modifiable running biomechanics are a determining factor of RE. The purposes of this review were to (1) examine the intrinsic and extrinsic modifiable biomechanical factors affecting RE; (2) assess training-induced changes in RE and running biomechanics; (3) evaluate whether an economical running technique can be recommended and; (4) discuss potential areas for future research. Based on current evidence, the intrinsic factors that appeared beneficial for RE were using a preferred stride length range, which allows for stride length deviations up to 3 % shorter than preferred stride length; lower vertical oscillation; greater leg stiffness; low lower limb moment of inertia; less leg extension at toe-off; larger stride angles; alignment of the ground reaction force and leg axis during propulsion; maintaining arm swing; low thigh antagonist-agonist muscular coactivation; and low activation of lower limb muscles during propulsion. Extrinsic factors associated with a better RE were a firm, compliant shoe-surface interaction and being barefoot or wearing lightweight shoes. Several other modifiable biomechanical factors presented inconsistent relationships with RE. Running biomechanics during ground contact appeared to play an important role, specifically those during propulsion. Therefore, this phase has the strongest direct links with RE. Recurring methodological problems exist within the literature, such as cross-comparisons, assessing variables in isolation, and acute to short-term interventions. Therefore, recommending a general economical running technique should be approached with caution. Future work should focus on interdisciplinary longitudinal investigations combining RE, kinematics, kinetics, and neuromuscular and anatomical aspects, as well as applying a synergistic approach to understanding the role of kinetics.

Structural changes in industrial electricity use. The case of the pulp and paper industry in Sweden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Henriksson, E.; Lundmark, R. [Economics Unit, Department of Business Administration and Social Science, Luleaa University of Technology, SE-971 87 Lulea (Sweden)

2013-05-15

The purpose of this paper is to analyse altering energy demand patterns and energy factor substitution possibilities over time in the pulp and paper industry in order to increase our understanding of suitable policy options for increasing energy efficiency. The investigation employs a flexible translog cost function and an unbalanced panel data set covering 32 pulp and paper mills over the time period 1974-2005 in Sweden. Specifically, we test whether energy factor demand patterns in the industry for the period 1974-1990 differ from those during the latter period, 1991-2005. The empirical results reveal that even though the Swedish pulp and paper industry is relatively insensitive to changes in energy factor input prices in the short run, we find evidence of significant changes over time. According to the results, the own-price sensitivity of fuel has increased since the 1970s and the 1980s, thus indicating that fuel demand has become more sensitive to short-run changes in relative prices. The estimated cross-price elasticities between electricity and fuel also support the hypothesis of increased substitutability over time. However, the null hypothesis of an equal own-price elasticity of electricity demand across the two time periods cannot be rejected.

A step towards understanding the mechanisms of running-related injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Malisoux, Laurent; Nielsen, Rasmus Oestergaard; Urhausen, Axel; Theisen, Daniel

2015-09-01

To investigate the association between training-related characteristics and running-related injury using a new conceptual model for running-related injury generation, focusing on the synergy between training load and previous injuries, short-term running experience or body mass index (> or running training characteristics (weekly distance, frequency, speed), other sport participation and injuries on a dedicated internet platform. Weekly volume (dichotomized into running-related injury. Non-training-related characteristics were included in Cox regression analyses as effect-measure modifiers. Hazard ratio was the measure of association. The size of effect-measure modification was calculated as the relative excess risk due to interaction. One hundred sixty-seven runners reported a running-related injury. Crude analyses revealed that weekly volume running-related injury is influenced by body mass index and previous injury. These results show the importance to distinguish between confounding and effect-measure modification in running-related injury research. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic factors of the short-term outcomes of patients with hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, Qing; Ao, Kangjian; Zhang, Yinhua; Ma, Deqiang; Ding, Deping; Ke, Changzheng; Chen, Yue; Luo, Jie; Meng, Zhongji

2017-11-01

To investigate the impact of the baseline status of patients with hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure on short-term outcomes. A retrospective study was conducted that included a total of 138 patients with hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure admitted to the Department of Infectious Diseases, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, from November 2013 to October 2016. The patients were divided into a poor prognosis group (74 patients) and a good prognosis group (64 patients) based on the disease outcome. General information, clinical indicators and prognostic scores of the patients' baseline status were analyzed, and a prediction model was established accordingly. Elder age, treatment with artificial liver support systems and the frequency of such treatments, high levels of white blood cells, neutrophils, neutrophil count/lymphocyte count ratio, alanine aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, total bilirubin, urea, and prognostic scores as well as low levels of albumin and sodium were all significantly associated with the short-term outcomes of hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure. The predictive model showed that logit (p) = 3.068 + 1.003 × neutrophil count/lymphocyte count ratio - 0.892 × gamma-glutamyl transferase - 1.138 × albumin - 1.364 × sodium + 1.651 × artificial liver support therapy. The neutrophil count/lymphocyte count ratio and serum levels of gamma-glutamyl transferase, albumin and sodium were independent risk factors predicting short-term outcomes of hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure, and the administration of multiple treatments with artificial liver support therapy during the early stage is conducive to improved short-term outcomes.

Running the running

OpenAIRE

Cabass, Giovanni; Di Valentino, Eleonora; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Pajer, Enrico; Silk, Joseph

2016-01-01

We use the recent observations of Cosmic Microwave Background temperature and polarization anisotropies provided by the Planck satellite experiment to place constraints on the running $\\alpha_\\mathrm{s} = \\mathrm{d}n_{\\mathrm{s}} / \\mathrm{d}\\log k$ and the running of the running $\\beta_{\\mathrm{s}} = \\mathrm{d}\\alpha_{\\mathrm{s}} / \\mathrm{d}\\log k$ of the spectral index $n_{\\mathrm{s}}$ of primordial scalar fluctuations. We find $\\alpha_\\mathrm{s}=0.011\\pm0.010$ and $\\beta_\\mathrm{s}=0.027\\...

SUPER-CAPACITOR APPLICATION IN ELECTRICAL POWER CABLE TESTING FACILITIES IN THERMAL ENDURANCE AND MECHANICAL BRACING TESTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. V. Oleksyuk

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The current-carrying cores of the electrical power cables should be resistant to effects of short-circuit currents whose values depend on the material of the core, its cross-sectional area, cable insulation properties, environment temperature, and the duration of the short-circuit current flow (1 and 3–4 sec. when tested for thermal endurance and mechanical bracing. The facilities for testing the 10 kV aluminum core cables with short-circuit current shall provide mechanical-bracing current 56,82 kA and thermal endurance current 11,16 kA. Although capacitors provide such values of the testing currents to the best advantage, utilizing conventional capacitor-units will involve large expenditures for erecting and  running a separate building. It is expedient to apply super-capacitors qua the electric power supply for testing facilities, as they are capacitors with double-electrical layer and involve the current values of tens of kilo-amperes.The insulation voltage during short-circuit current testing being not-standardized, it is not banned to apply voltages less than 10 kV when performing short-circuit thermal endurance and mechanical bracing tests for electrical power cables of 10 kV. The super-capacitor voltage variation-in-time graph consists of two regions: capacitive and resistive. The capacitive part corresponds to the voltage change consequent on the energy change in the super-capacitors. The resistive part shows the voltage variation due to the active resistance presence in the super-capacitor.The author offers the algorithm determining the number of super capacitors requisite for testing 10 kV-electrical power cables with short-circuit currents for thermal endurance and mechanical bracing. The paper shows that installation of super-capacitors in the facilities testing the cables with short-circuit currents reduces the area needed for the super-capacitors in comparison with conventional capacitors more than by one order of magnitude.

Wind energy in a competitive electricity supply environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Strbac, G; Jenkins, N [Manchester Centre for Electrical Energy, Manchester (United Kingdom)

1996-12-31

In the UK, there has been an increasing interest in the commercial aspects of the impact of wind energy on transmission and distribution networks. In a competitive electricity supply environment, mechanisms for pricing network services are considered to be the main vehicle for evaluating that impact. This article reviews the major pricing strategies based on embedded costs, short and long run marginal costing theory as well as time-of-use pricing, and comments on the influence of each particular strategy on the calculated value of wind energy. Also, prospective tools for evaluating savings in capital and operating network costs due to wind generation, are identified. (author)

Wind energy in a competitive electricity supply environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Strbac, G.; Jenkins, N. [Manchester Centre for Electrical Energy, Manchester (United Kingdom)

1995-12-31

In the UK, there has been an increasing interest in the commercial aspects of the impact of wind energy on transmission and distribution networks. In a competitive electricity supply environment, mechanisms for pricing network services are considered to be the main vehicle for evaluating that impact. This article reviews the major pricing strategies based on embedded costs, short and long run marginal costing theory as well as time-of-use pricing, and comments on the influence of each particular strategy on the calculated value of wind energy. Also, prospective tools for evaluating savings in capital and operating network costs due to wind generation, are identified. (author)

The barefoot debate: can minimalist shoes reduce running-related injuries?

Science.gov (United States)

Rixe, Jeffrey A; Gallo, Robert A; Silvis, Matthew L

2012-01-01

Running has evolved throughout history from a necessary form of locomotion to an athletic and recreational pursuit. During this transition, our barefoot ancestors developed footwear. By the late 1970s, running popularity surged, and footwear manufacturers developed the running shoe. Despite new shoe technology and expert advice, runners still face high injury rates, which have yet to decline. Recently, "minimalist" running, marked by a soft forefoot strike and shorter, quicker strides, has become increasingly popular within the running community. Biomechanical studies have suggested that these features of barefoot-style running may lead to a reduction in injury rates. After conducting more outcomes-based research, minimalist footwear and gait retraining may serve as new methods to reduce injuries within the running population.

Endoscopic submucosal dissection of early colorectal neoplasms with a monopolar scissor-type knife: short- to long-term outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuwai, Toshio; Yamaguchi, Toshiki; Imagawa, Hiroki; Sumida, Yuki; Takasago, Takeshi; Miyasako, Yuki; Nishimura, Tomoyuki; Iio, Sumio; Yamaguchi, Atsushi; Kouno, Hirotaka; Kohno, Hiroshi; Ishaq, Sauid

2017-09-01

Background and study aims  Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for colorectal neoplasms remains challenging because of technical issues imposed by the complex anatomical features of the large intestine. We evaluated the feasibility, and the short- and long-term clinical outcomes of ESD for early colorectal neoplasms performed using the Stag-beetle Knife Jr. (SB Knife Jr.) Patients and methods  We retrospectively assessed 228 patients who underwent ESD for 247 colorectal lesions with the SB Knife Jr. Clinicopathological characteristics of the neoplasms, complications, and various short- and long-term outcomes were evaluated. Results  Mean tumor size was 34.3 mm and median procedure time was 76 minutes. The SB Knife Jr. achieved 98.4 % en bloc resection, 93.9 % complete resection, and 85.4 % curative resection. No perforations occurred during the procedure, and a delayed bleeding rate of 2.4 % was observed. Long-term outcomes were favorable with no distant recurrence, 1.1 % local recurrence, a 5-year overall survival rate of 94.1 % and 5-year tumor-specific survival rate of 98.6 % in patients with cancer. Conclusions  ESD using the SB Knife Jr. is technically efficient and safe in treating early colorectal neoplasms and is associated with favorable short- and long-term outcomes. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

Science.gov (United States)

Rubin, Ofir David

Estimates from the World Wind Energy Association assert that world total wind power installed capacity climbed from 18 Gigawatt (GW) to 152 GW from 2000 to 2009. Moreover, according to their predictions, by the end of 2010 global wind power capacity will reach 190 GW. Since electricity is a unique commodity, this remarkable expansion brings forward several key economic questions regarding the integration of significant amount of wind power capacity into deregulated electricity markets. The overall dissertation objective is to develop a comprehensive theoretical framework that enables the modeling of the performance and outcome of wind-integrated electricity markets. This is relevant because the state of knowledge of modeling electricity markets is insufficient for the purpose of wind power considerations. First, there is a need to decide about a consistent representation of deregulated electricity markets. Surprisingly, the related body of literature does not agree on the very economic basics of modeling electricity markets. That is important since we need to capture the fundamentals of electricity markets before we introduce wind power to our study. For example, the structure of the electric industry is a key. If market power is present, the integration of wind power has large consequences on welfare distribution. Since wind power uncertainty changes the dynamics of information it also impacts the ability to manipulate market prices. This is because the quantity supplied by wind energy is not a decision variable. Second, the intermittent spatial nature of wind over a geographical region is important because the market value of wind power capacity is derived from its statistical properties. Once integrated into the market, the distribution of wind will impact the price of electricity produced from conventional sources of energy. Third, although wind power forecasting has improved in recent years, at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards, forecasting

Photodetachment of H- by a short laser pulse in crossed static electric and magnetic fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng Liangyou; Wang Qiaoling; Starace, Anthony F.

2006-01-01

We present a detailed quantum mechanical treatment of the photodetachment of H - by a short laser pulse in the presence of crossed static electric and magnetic fields. An exact analytic formula is presented for the final state electron wave function (describing an electron in both static electric and magnetic fields and a short laser pulse of arbitrary intensity). In the limit of a weak laser pulse, final state electron wave packet motion is examined and related to the closed classical electron orbits in crossed static fields predicted by Peters and Delos [Phys. Rev. A 47, 3020 (1993)]. Owing to these closed orbit trajectories, we show that the detachment probability can be modulated, depending on the time delay between two laser pulses and their relative phase, thereby providing a means to partially control the photodetachment process. In the limit of a long, weak pulse (i.e., a monochromatic radiation field) our results reduce to those of others; however, for this case we analyze the photodetachment cross section numerically over a much larger range of electron kinetic energy (i.e., up to 500 cm -1 ) than in previous studies and relate the detailed structures both analytically and numerically to the above-mentioned, closed classical periodic orbits

Consumer knowledge and electricity consumption

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crawshaw, A J.E.; Williams, D I; Crawshaw, C M

1985-12-01

Householders in all-electric homes were asked to rank their electrical appliances in terms of annual running cost. By comparing this with an individually calculated correct order, an assessment of their knowledge was made. On this measure overall knowledge was good, but half the sample underestimated the running costs of key high-energy using appliances (space heating, hot-water, cooking). This specific lack of knowledge is critical, and was found to be correlated with higher bills. 16 references.

The relationship between start performance and race outcome in elite 500-m short-track speed skating.

Science.gov (United States)

Haug, William B; Drinkwater, Eric J; Mitchell, Lachlan J; Chapman, Dale W

2015-10-01

Initial short-track speed-skating 14-m start performance has substantial influence on 500-m race outcome at the international level, yet the relationship has not been systematically quantified. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the relationship between rank position entering first corner (RPEFC) and race outcome and to understand how this relationship changes with competition round and absolute race intensity. Data were compiled from 2011-2014 World Cup seasons and 2010 and 2014 Olympic Winter Games. Association between RPEFC and race outcome was determined through Kendall tau-rank correlations. A visual comparison was made of how the relationship changes with relative competition level (race tau correlations were sorted by competition round) and with race intensity (race tau correlations were sorted by within-event winning time). A very large relationship between RPEFC and race outcome was observed (correlations for cohort, τ = .60; men, τ = .53; women, τ = .67). When examined by competition round (quarter- to A-finals), no substantial change in relationship was observed (men, τ = .57-.46; women, τ = .73-.53). However, when the start-performance relationship was considered by within-event winning time, the relationship strength increased with decreasing time (men, τ = .61 to .46; women, τ = .76 to .57; fastest to 7th- and 8th-fastest combined, respectively). These results establish and quantify RPEFC as an important aspect of elite short-track 500-m race outcome. RPEFC as an indicator of race outcome becomes increasingly important with absolute race intensity, suggesting that RPEFC capability is a discriminating factor for competitors of similar top speed and speed endurance.

Nonlinear model of short-scale electrodynamics in the auroral ionosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.-M. A. Noël

Full Text Available The optical detection of auroral subarcs a few tens of m wide as well as the direct observation of shears several m/s per m over km to sub km scales by rocket instrumentation both indicate that violent and highly localized electrodynamics can occur at times in the auroral ionosphere over scales 100 m or less in width. These observations as well as the detection of unstable ion-acoustic waves observed by incoherent radars along the geomagnetic field lines has motivated us to develop a detailed time-dependent two-dimensional model of short-scale auroral electrodynamics that uses current continuity, Ohm's law, and 8-moment transport equations for the ions and electrons in the presence of large ambient electric fields to describe wide auroral arcs with sharp edges in response to sharp cut-offs in precipitation (even though it may be possible to describe thin arcs and ultra-thin arcs with our model, we have left such a study for future work. We present the essential elements of this new model and illustrate the model's usefulness with a sample run for which the ambient electric field is 100 mV/m away from the arc and for which electron precipitation cuts off over a region 100 m wide. The sample run demonstrates that parallel current densities of the order of several hundred µA m^-2 can be triggered in these circumstances, together with shears several m/s per m in magnitude and parallel electric fields of the order of 0.1 mV/m around 130 km altitude. It also illustrates that the local ionospheric properties like densities, temperature and composition can strongly be affected by the violent localized electrodynamics and vice-versa.

Key words: Ionosphere (auroral ionosphere, electric fields and currents, ionosphere-magnetosphere interactions

Short-term heat acclimation improves the determinants of endurance performance and 5-km running performance in the heat.

Science.gov (United States)

James, Carl A; Richardson, Alan J; Watt, Peter W; Willmott, Ashley G B; Gibson, Oliver R; Maxwell, Neil S

2017-03-01

This study investigated the effect of 5 days of controlled short-term heat acclimation (STHA) on the determinants of endurance performance and 5-km performance in runners, relative to the impairment afforded by moderate heat stress. A control group (CON), matched for total work and power output (2.7 W·kg -1 ), differentiated thermal and exercise contributions of STHA on exercise performance. Seventeen participants (10 STHA, 7 CON) completed graded exercise tests (GXTs) in cool (13 °C, 50% relative humidity (RH), pre-training) and hot conditions (32 °C, 60% RH, pre- and post-training), as well as 5-km time trials (TTs) in the heat, pre- and post-training. STHA reduced resting (p = 0.01) and exercising (p = 0.04) core temperature alongside a smaller change in thermal sensation (p = 0.04). Both groups improved the lactate threshold (LT, p = 0.021), lactate turnpoint (LTP, p = 0.005) and velocity at maximal oxygen consumption (vV̇O 2max ; p = 0.031) similarly. Statistical differences between training methods were observed in TT performance (STHA, -6.2(5.5)%; CON, -0.6(1.7)%, p = 0.029) and total running time during the GXT (STHA, +20.8(12.7)%; CON, +9.8(1.2)%, p = 0.006). There were large mean differences in change in maximal oxygen consumption between STHA +4.0(2.2) mL·kg -1 ·min -1 (7.3(4.0)%) and CON +1.9(3.7) mL·kg -1 ·min -1 (3.8(7.2)%). Running economy (RE) deteriorated following both training programmes (p = 0.008). Similarly, RE was impaired in the cool GXT, relative to the hot GXT (p = 0.004). STHA improved endurance running performance in comparison with work-matched normothermic training, despite equality of adaptation for typical determinants of performance (LT, LTP, vV̇O 2max ). Accordingly, these data highlight the ergogenic effect of STHA, potentially via greater improvements in maximal oxygen consumption and specific thermoregulatory and associated thermal perception adaptations absent in normothermic training.

The effect of chorionicity and twin-to-twin delivery time interval on short-term outcome of the second twin

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hjortø, Sofie; Nickelsen, Carsten; Petersen, Janne

2013-01-01

Abstract Objectives: To investigate the effect of chorionicity and twin-to-twin delivery time interval on short-term outcome in the second twin. Additionally, to investigate predictors of adverse outcome in both twins. Methods: Data included vaginally delivered twins (≥ 36 weeks) from Copenhagen ...

Electric drives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1986-10-01

Several electric vehicles have been tested in long-term tests, i.e. an electric passenger car (maximum speed 115 km/h) and several busses for use in pedestrians' zones, spas, airports, natural reserves, and urban transportation (DUO busses). The ICE high-speed train is discussed in some detail, i.e. its aeroacoustic and aerodynamic design, running gear, computer-controlled drives and brakes, diagnostic systems, and electrical equipment. The Berlin Maglev system is mentioned as well as current inverters in rail vehicles. (HWJ).

Impact of steep-front short-duration impulse on electric power system insulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burrage, L M; Veverka, E F; Shaw, J H [Cooper Industries, Inc., Franksville, WI (USA). Cooper Power Systems; McConnell, B W [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)

1991-04-01

This research effort required the performance evaluation of three specific insulation systems in common usage by electric power transmission and distribution utilities under stresses imposed by: three characteristic impulse waveforms (two waves representative of steep-front short duration (SFSD) impulses and one representative of lightning), the cumulative effect of multiple shots'' of each pulse, 60 Hz voltage, and, where appropriate, and mechanical load. The insulation systems evaluated are the cellulose-paper/oil combination typical of power transformer and condenser bushing usage, the cellulose-paper/enamel/oil combination used in distribution transformer construction, and the porcelain/air combination representing transmission and distribution line structural insulation. 4 refs., 94 figs., 11 tabs.

Feasibility study of superconducting power cables for DC electric railway feeding systems in view of thermal condition at short circuit accident

Science.gov (United States)

Kumagai, Daisuke; Ohsaki, Hiroyuki; Tomita, Masaru

2016-12-01

A superconducting power cable has merits of a high power transmission capacity, transmission losses reduction, a compactness, etc., therefore, we have been studying the feasibility of applying superconducting power cables to DC electric railway feeding systems. However, a superconducting power cable is required to be cooled down and kept at a very low temperature, so it is important to reveal its thermal and cooling characteristics. In this study, electric circuit analysis models of the system and thermal analysis models of superconducting cables were constructed and the system behaviors were simulated. We analyzed the heat generation by a short circuit accident and transient temperature distribution of the cable to estimate the value of temperature rise and the time required from the accident. From these results, we discussed a feasibility of superconducting cables for DC electric railway feeding systems. The results showed that the short circuit accident had little impact on the thermal condition of a superconducting cable in the installed system.

Comparative Short-Term Clinical Outcomes of Mediastinum Tumor Excision Performed by Conventional VATS and Single-Port VATS: Is It Worthwhile?

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Ching-Feng; Gonzalez-Rivas, Diego; Wen, Chih-Tsung; Liu, Yun-Hen; Wu, Yi-Cheng; Chao, Yin-Kai; Hsieh, Ming-Ju; Wu, Ching-Yang; Chen, Wei-Hsun

2015-11-01

Single-port video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) has been widely applied recently. However, there are still only few reports describing its use in mediastinum tumor resection. We present the technique of single-port video-assisted thoracoscopic mediastinum tumor resection and compare it with conventional VATS with regard to short-term outcome.We retrospectively enrolled 105 patients who received mediastinum surgery in Chang Gung Memorial Hospital. Sixteen patients received sternotomy or thoracotomy, 29 patients received single-port VATS, and 60 patients received conventional VATS (3 ports). The operative time, blood loss, postoperation day 1 pain score, discharge day pain score, and postoperative hospital stay were compared. In order to establish a well balanced cohort study, we also use propensity scores match (1:1) to compare the short-term clinical outcome in 2 groups.No operative deaths occurred in this study. Single-port VATS was associated with shorter operative time, lower postoperation day 1 pain score, and shorter postoperation hospital stay in our cohort study (P = 0.001, short-term outcome not inferior to conventional VATS in our cohort study. The long-term oncology outcome may require time and more enrolled patients to be further evaluated.

Using wheel availability to shape running behavior of the rat towards improved behavioral and neurobiological outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Basso, Julia C; Morrell, Joan I

2017-10-01

Though voluntary wheel running (VWR) has been used extensively to induce changes in both behavior and biology, little attention has been given to the way in which different variables influence VWR. This lack of understanding has led to an inability to utilize this behavior to its full potential, possibly blunting its effects on the endpoints of interest. We tested how running experience, sex, gonadal hormones, and wheel apparatus influence VWR in a range of wheel access "doses". VWR increases over several weeks, with females eventually running 1.5 times farther and faster than males. Limiting wheel access can be used as a tool to motivate subjects to run but restricts maximal running speeds attained by the rodents. Additionally, circulating gonadal hormones regulate wheel running behavior, but are not the sole basis of sex differences in running. Limitations from previous studies include the predominate use of males, emphasis on distance run, variable amounts of wheel availability, variable light-dark cycles, and possible food and/or water deprivation. We designed a comprehensive set of experiments to address these inconsistencies, providing data regarding the "microfeatures" of running, including distance run, time spent running, running rate, bouting behavior, and daily running patterns. By systematically altering wheel access, VWR behavior can be finely tuned - a feature that we hypothesize is due to its positive incentive salience. We demonstrate how to maximize VWR, which will allow investigators to optimize exercise-induced changes in their behavioral and/or biological endpoints of interest. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The value of electricity and reserve services in low carbon electricity systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vijay, Avinash; Fouquet, Nicolas; Staffell, Iain; Hawkes, Adam

2017-01-01

Highlights: •A power dispatch model is used to simulate electricity and reserve prices. •Good agreement is observed between modelled and historic prices in 2015. •Higher renewables and CCS with lower fossil fuels leads to lower electricity prices. •Contrary to expectation, gone green scenario leads to lowest increase in reserve price. •Flexible aggregated demand response likely to offer significant economic benefits. -- Abstract: Decarbonising electricity systems is essential for mitigating climate change. Future systems will likely incorporate higher penetrations of intermittent renewable and inflexible nuclear power. This will significantly impact on system operations, particularly the requirements for flexibility in terms of reserves and the cost of such services. This paper estimates the interrelated changes in wholesale electricity and reserve prices using two novel methods. Firstly, it simulates the short run marginal cost of generation using a unit commitment model with post-processing to achieve realistic prices. It also introduces a new reserve price model, which mimics actual operation by first calculating the day ahead schedules and then letting deviations from schedule drive reserve prices. The UK is used as a case study to compare these models with traditional methods from the literature. The model gives good agreement with and historic prices in 2015. In a 2035 scenario, increased renewables penetration reduces mean electricity prices, and leads to price spikes due to expensive plants being brought online briefly to cope with net load variations. Contrary to views previously held in literature, a renewable intensive scenario does not lead to a higher reserve price than a fossil fuel intensive scenario. Demand response technology is shown to offer sizeable economic benefits when maintaining system balance. More broadly, this framework can be used to evaluate the economics of providing reserve services by aggregating decentralised energy

High-intensity cycle interval training improves cycling and running performance in triathletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Etxebarria, Naroa; Anson, Judith M; Pyne, David B; Ferguson, Richard A

2014-01-01

Effective cycle training for triathlon is a challenge for coaches. We compared the effects of two variants of cycle high-intensity interval training (HIT) on triathlon-specific cycling and running. Fourteen moderately-trained male triathletes ([Formula: see text]O2peak 58.7 ± 8.1 mL kg(-1) min(-1); mean ± SD) completed on separate occasions a maximal incremental test ([Formula: see text]O2peak and maximal aerobic power), 16 × 20 s cycle sprints and a 1-h triathlon-specific cycle followed immediately by a 5 km run time trial. Participants were then pair-matched and assigned randomly to either a long high-intensity interval training (LONG) (6-8 × 5 min efforts) or short high-intensity interval training (SHORT) (9-11 × 10, 20 and 40 s efforts) HIT cycle training intervention. Six training sessions were completed over 3 weeks before participants repeated the baseline testing. Both groups had an ∼7% increase in [Formula: see text]O2peak (SHORT 7.3%, ±4.6%; mean, ±90% confidence limits; LONG 7.5%, ±1.7%). There was a moderate improvement in mean power for both the SHORT (10.3%, ±4.4%) and LONG (10.7%, ±6.8%) groups during the last eight 20-s sprints. There was a small to moderate decrease in heart rate, blood lactate and perceived exertion in both groups during the 1-h triathlon-specific cycling but only the LONG group had a substantial decrease in the subsequent 5-km run time (64, ±59 s). Moderately-trained triathletes should use both short and long high-intensity intervals to improve cycling physiology and performance. Longer 5-min intervals on the bike are more likely to benefit 5 km running performance.

Performance Funding Policy Effects on Community College Outcomes: Are Short-Term Certificates on the Rise?

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Amy Y.; Kennedy, Alec I.

2018-01-01

Objective: Performance funding (PF) policies allocate a portion of state funding to colleges based on student outcomes. This study is the first to account for policy type and design differences, and explores the impact of performance funding on three levels of credential completions: short-term certificates, medium-term certificates, and…

Analysing learning outcomes in an Electrical Engineering curriculum using illustrative verbs derived from Bloom's Taxonomy

Science.gov (United States)

Meda, Lawrence; Swart, Arthur James

2018-05-01

Learning outcomes are essential to any curriculum in education, where they need to be clear, observable and measurable. However, some academics structure learning outcomes in a way that does not promote student learning. The purpose of this article is to present the analyses of learning outcomes of an Electrical Engineering curriculum offered at a University of Technology in South Africa, in order to determine if academics are structuring them in a way that enables student learning. A qualitative case study is used where the learning outcomes from 33 study guides are reviewed using illustrative verbs derived from Bloom's Taxonomy. Results indicate that 9% of all the learning outcomes are unclear, 10% are unobservable and 23% are unmeasurable. A key recommendation is to provide regular workshops to assist academics in reviewing their learning outcomes using the illustrative verbs derived from Bloom's Taxonomy, thereby ensuring that their learning outcomes promote student learning.

Does electricity consumption panel Granger cause GDP? A new global evidence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Faculty of Business and Economics, Deakin University, Melbourne (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance, and Marketing, RMIT University, Melbourne (Australia); Popp, Stephan [Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Germany)

2010-10-15

The goal of this paper is to undertake a panel data investigation of long-run Granger causality between electricity consumption and real GDP for seven panels, which together consist of 93 countries. We use a new panel causality test and find that in the long-run both electricity consumption and real GDP have a bidirectional Granger causality relationship except for the Middle East where causality runs only from GDP to electricity consumption. Finally, for the G6 panel the estimates reveal a negative sign effect, implying that increasing electricity consumption in the six most industrialised nations will reduce GDP. (author)

Advances in electric power and energy systems load and price forecasting

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally. Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial ar nas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become nece...

Retail price as an outcome measure for the effectiveness of drug law enforcement.

Science.gov (United States)

Bright, David A; Ritter, Alison

2010-09-01

One outcome measure of law enforcement effectiveness is the reduction in drug consumption which occurs as a result of law enforcement interventions. A theoretical relationship between drug consumption and retail price has promoted the use of retail price as a surrogate measure for consumption. In the current article, retail price is examined as a potential outcome measure for the effectiveness of law enforcement. The predictions regarding the relationship between law enforcement intensity and price are only partially supported by research. Explanations for the disconnect between the drug law enforcement activity and retail price include: rapid adaptation by market players, enforcement swamping, assumptions of rational actors, short-run versus long-run effects, structure of the illicit market, simultaneous changes that affect price in perverse ways, the role of violence in markets, and data limitations. Researchers who use retail price as an outcome measure need to take into account the complex relationship between drug law enforcement interventions and the retail price of illicit drugs. Viable outcome measures which can be used as complements to retail price are worth investigation. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal DG placement in deregulated electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gautam, Durga; Mithulananthan, Nadarajah

2007-01-01

This paper presents two new methodologies for optimal placement of distributed generation (DG) in an optimal power flow (OPF) based wholesale electricity market. DG is assumed to participate in real time wholesale electricity market. The problem of optimal placement, including size, is formulated for two different objectives, namely, social welfare maximization and profit maximization. The candidate locations for DG placement are identified on the basis of locational marginal price (LMP). Obtained as lagrangian multiplier associated with active power flow equation for each node, LMP gives the short run marginal cost (SRMC) of electricity. Consumer payment, evaluated as a product of LMP and load at each load bus, is proposed as another ranking to identify candidate nodes for DG placement. The proposed rankings bridges engineering aspects of system operation and economic aspects of market operation and act as good indicators for the placement of DG, especially in a market environment. In order to provide a scenario of variety of DGs available in the market, several cost characteristics are assumed. For each DG cost characteristic, an optimal placement and size is identified for each of the objectives. The proposed methodology is tested in a modified IEEE 14 bus test system. (author)

Short-run Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Theory and Evidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carlson, John A.; Dahl, Christian Møller; Osler, Carol L.

Recent research has revealed a wealth of information about the microeconomics of currency markets and thus the determination of exchange rates at short horizons. This information is valuable to us as scientists since, like evidence of macroeconomic regularities, it can provide critical guidance...... of currency markets, it accurately reflects the constraints and objectives faced by the major participants, and it fits key stylized facts concerning returns and order flow. With respect to macroeconomics, the model is consistent with most of the major puzzles that have emerged under floating rates....

Gender differences in success at quitting smoking: Short- and long-term outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Marqueta, Adriana; Nerín, Isabel; Gargallo, Pilar; Beamonte, Asunción

2016-06-14

Smoking cessation treatments are effective in men and women. However, possible sex-related differences in the outcome of these treatments remain a controversial topic. This study evaluated whether there were differences between men and women in the success of smoking cessation treatment, including gender-tailored components, in the short and long term (> 1 year). A telephone survey was carried out between September 2008 and June 2009 in smokers attended in a Smoking Cessation Clinic. All patients who have successfully completed treatment (3 months) were surveyed by telephone to determine their long-term abstinence. Those who remained abstinent were requested to attend the Smoking Cessation Clinic for biochemical validation (expired CO ≤10 ppm). The probability of remaining abstinent in the long-term was calculated using a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. The treatment success rate at 3-months was 41.3% (538/1302) with no differences by sex 89% (479/538) among those located in the telephonic follow-up study and 47.6% (256/479) were abstinent without differences by sex (p = .519); abstinence was validated with CO less than 10 ppm in 191 of the 256 (53.9% men and 46.1% women). In the survival analysis, the probability of men and women remaining abstinent in the long-term was not significant. There are no differences by sex in the outcome of smoking cessation treatment that included gender-tailored components in the short and long term (> 1 year).

Changes in the level of cardiac troponine and disorders in pulmonary gas exchange as predictors of short- and long-term outcomes of patients with aneurysm subarachnoid haemorrhage.

Science.gov (United States)

Burzyńska, Małgorzata; Uryga, Agnieszka; Kasprowicz, Magdalena; Kędziora, Jarosław; Szewczyk, Ewa; Woźniak, Jowita; Jarmundowicz, Włodzimierz; Kübler, Andrzej

2017-12-01

Cardiopulmonary abnormalities are common after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH). However, the relationship between short- and long-term outcome is poorly understood. In this paper, we present how cardiac troponine elevations (cTnI) and pulmonary disorders are associated with short- and long-term outcomes assessed by the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) and Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE). A total of 104 patients diagnosed with aSAH were analysed in the study. The non-parametric U Mann-Whitney test was used to evaluate the difference between good (GOS IV-V, GOSE V-VIII) and poor (GOS I-III, GOSE I-IV) outcomes in relation to cTnI elevation and pulmonary disorders. Outcome was assessed at discharge from the hospital, and then followed up 6 and 12 months later. Pulmonary disorders were determined by the PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio and radiography. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were used to determine the predictive power of these factors. In the group with good short-term outcomes cTnI elevation on the second day after aSAH was significantly lower (p = .00007) than in patients with poor short-term outcomes. The same trend was observed after 6 months, although there were different results 12 months from the onset (p = .024 and n.s., respectively). A higher peak of cTnI was observed in the group with a pathological X-ray (p = .008) and pathological PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio (p ≪ .001). cTnI was an accurate predictor of short-term outcomes (AUC = 0.741, p ≪ .001) and the outcome after 6 months (AUC = 0.688, p = .015). The results showed that cardiopulmonary abnormalities perform well as predictive factors for short- and long-term outcomes after aSAH.

Inferring Carbon Abatement Costs in Electricity Markets: A Revealed Preference Approach using the Shale Revolution

OpenAIRE

Joseph A. Cullen; Erin T. Mansur

2014-01-01

This paper examines how much carbon emissions from the electricity industry would decrease in response to a carbon price. We show how both carbon prices and cheap natural gas reduce, in a nearly identical manner, the historic cost advantage of coal-fired power plants. The shale revolution has resulted in unprecedented variation in natural gas prices that we use to estimate the short-run price elasticity of abatement. Our estimates imply that a price of $10 ($60) per ton of carbon dioxide woul...

Assessing the impact of wind generation on wholesale prices and generator dispatch in the Australian National Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forrest, Sam; MacGill, Iain

2013-01-01

Growing climate change and energy security concerns are driving major wind energy deployment in electricity industries around the world. Despite its many advantages, growing penetrations of this highly variable and somewhat unpredictable energy source pose new challenges for electricity industry operation. One issue receiving growing attention is the so-called ‘merit order effect’ of wind generation in wholesale electricity markets. Wind has very low operating costs and therefore tends to displace higher cost conventional generation from market dispatch, reducing both wholesale prices and conventional plant outputs. This paper extends the current literature on this effect through an empirical study employing a range of econometric techniques to quantify the impacts of growing wind penetrations in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). The results suggest that wind is having a marked impact on spot market prices and, while wind is primarily offsetting higher operating cost gas generation, it is now also significantly reducing dispatch of emissions intensive brown coal generation. Great care needs to be taken in extrapolating these results to longer-term implications, however, the study does propose a methodology for assessing this effect, highlights the impacts that wind is already having on NEM outcomes and suggests promising directions for future research. - Highlights: ► Proposes methodologies to estimate short run impact of wind on electricity markets. ► Quantifies the merit order effect of wind generation on wholesale spot price. ► Wind is found to be significantly effecting gas fired generation. ► Evidence is found for wind having a notable impact on baseload coal generation. ► Discusses the implications for development of wind generation in Australia

INFLUENCE OF FUNCTIONAL ABILITY IN RUNNING 400 AND 800 METERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdulla Elezi

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Goal of the research was to assess on the grounds of data collected that were used to assess the functional ability of the cardio-respiratory system and the results of running to determine the relation of these sum of variables. Basic statistical indicators of the physiological variables and results of running were calculated. For determining the relation, the regression analysis was used in the manifested space. Criterion variable (running for 100 meters did not demonstrate statistically significant coefficient of multiple variation with predictor variables. The time span in running 400 meters is short in order to engage mechanisms that supply and transform the energy for oxidative processes. Criterion variable (of running 800 meters has demonstrated statistically significant coefficient of multiple correlations with predictor variable and its value was 0.377 tested through F-test. This is understandable given that the time effect of engagement of systems responsible for transfer and transformation of energy compared to time needed for running 400 meters.

Overview of electric power industry of main countries in the world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

The electric power supply system, power producer, regulation system, electricity liberalization, power demand and supply, electricity rate, development of electric power sources, nuclear power generation and renewable energy of six countries such as USA, England, German, France, Russia and China are reported. On USA, 3,754 x 10 9 kWh of total electric energy, 104 of nuclear reactors are running and giving careful consideration to safety of the plant. Shale gas production is increasing, and new technology of electric car, smart grid and demand response is developing. On England, 368 x 10 9 kWh of total electric energy, which consisted of 70.4% thermal power, 18.8% nuclear power and 10.8% renewable energy, 18 nuclear reactors are running, but almost nuclear power plants will be closed until 2023. Biomass and wind power have been developed. On German, 609 x 10 9 kWh of total electric energy, 9 nuclear reactors are running but closed till 2022, the renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic is introduced. On France, 542 x 10 9 kWh total electric energy, which consisted of 9% hydroelectricity, 9% thermal power, 78% nuclear power and 4% renewable energy. The renewable energy plan is formulated. On Russia, 1,052 x 10 9 kWh total electric energy consisted of 67.8% thermal power, 15.7% hydroelectricity and 16.4% nuclear power, 32 nuclear power plants are running and 9 nuclear reactors building. On China, 4,693 x 10 9 kWh power consumption, 6 nuclear power plants are running to generate 1.85% electric energy, the objects of nuclear power generation and renewable energy were announced. (S.Y.)

Price freezes, durables and residential electricity demand - Evidence from the Greater Buenos Aires

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Casarin, Ariel; Delfino, Maria Eugenia

2010-09-15

This paper examines the determinants of residential electricity demand in the Greater Buenos Aires between 1997 and 2006. During the second half of this period, residential tariffs remained nominally fixed, while an income boom boosted up the sales of durables. This study differs from previous works in that it explicitly considers the impact of the stock of air-conditioners on residential demand. The paper reports short- and long-run elasticities and examines the contribution of prices and durables to recent demand growth. Simulations illustrate the impact of prices and durables on future demand.

An assessment of electricity and income distributional trends following rural electrification in poor northeast Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obermaier, Martin; Szklo, Alexandre; La Rovere, Emilio Lèbre; Pinguelli Rosa, Luiz

2012-01-01

Rural electrification is considered to be a key strategy for poverty alleviation and sustainable development. It should therefore include (1) expanding electricity access and (2) enable new consumers to increase their electricity consumption. In this paper we ask how Brazil’s recent rural electrification efforts have managed to reach these objectives. A new method to measure energy and income equity is presented which uses estimations of non-parametric density curves for the analysis of energy and income distributional trends following electrification. By applying our method to a panel data set from two Brazilian states situated in the country’s poor northeast region we find that (1) rural consumers take up electricity consumption after electrification, and that (2) low consumption levels give way to higher electricity consumption levels after only a few years. This indicates immediate social benefits for households through consumption of electricity services. However, our analysis cannot verify a direct link between electricity use and rural income generation in the short term. The results emphasize the need for government and other actors to integrate rural electrification into broader rural development strategies in order to enable long-term welfare increases through electricity use. - Highlights: ► Comprehensive analysis of Brazil’s recent rural electrification efforts. ► New methodology to analyze energy and income equity trends ex post electrification. ► Analysis indicates immediate social benefits for electrified households. ► We cannot establish a direct link between electricity use and income in the short-run. ► Electrification thus should be integrated in long-term rural development strategies.

The design of the run Clever randomized trial: running volume, -intensity and running-related injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramskov, Daniel; Nielsen, Rasmus Oestergaard; Sørensen, Henrik; Parner, Erik; Lind, Martin; Rasmussen, Sten

2016-04-23

Injury incidence and prevalence in running populations have been investigated and documented in several studies. However, knowledge about injury etiology and prevention is needed. Training errors in running are modifiable risk factors and people engaged in recreational running need evidence-based running schedules to minimize the risk of injury. The existing literature on running volume and running intensity and the development of injuries show conflicting results. This may be related to previously applied study designs, methods used to quantify the performed running and the statistical analysis of the collected data. The aim of the Run Clever trial is to investigate if a focus on running intensity compared with a focus on running volume in a running schedule influences the overall injury risk differently. The Run Clever trial is a randomized trial with a 24-week follow-up. Healthy recreational runners between 18 and 65 years and with an average of 1-3 running sessions per week the past 6 months are included. Participants are randomized into two intervention groups: Running schedule-I and Schedule-V. Schedule-I emphasizes a progression in running intensity by increasing the weekly volume of running at a hard pace, while Schedule-V emphasizes a progression in running volume, by increasing the weekly overall volume. Data on the running performed is collected by GPS. Participants who sustain running-related injuries are diagnosed by a diagnostic team of physiotherapists using standardized diagnostic criteria. The members of the diagnostic team are blinded. The study design, procedures and informed consent were approved by the Ethics Committee Northern Denmark Region (N-20140069). The Run Clever trial will provide insight into possible differences in injury risk between running schedules emphasizing either running intensity or running volume. The risk of sustaining volume- and intensity-related injuries will be compared in the two intervention groups using a competing

Experiment data of ROSA-III integral test RUN 710

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koizumi, Yasuo; Tasaka, Kanji; Adachi, Hiromichi; Anoda, Yoshinari; Soda, Kunihisa

1981-01-01

The report presents data of RUN 710 at ROSA-III test facility. RUN 710 simulates a 200% double-ended break at the inlest side of a recirculation pump of a BWR. All ECCS are activated and electric power to simulated fuel rods in one core channel among four is not supplied in RUN 710. The primary initial conditions are steam dome pressure 7.35 MPa, lower plenum subcooling 10.8 K, core inlet flow rate 31.3 kg/s and core heat generation 2.42 MW. Peak cladding temperature is 609 K at Position 3, 352.5 mm above the mid plane of the core. All heater rods are quenched after ECCS actuation and the effectiveness of ECCS is confirmed. (author)

Short- and long-term effects of unemployment on fertility

Science.gov (United States)

Currie, Janet; Schwandt, Hannes

2014-01-01

Scholars have been examining the relationship between fertility and unemployment for more than a century. Most studies find that fertility falls with unemployment in the short run, but it is not known whether these negative effects persist, because women simply may postpone childbearing to better economic times. Using more than 140 million US birth records for the period 1975–2010, we analyze both the short- and long-run effects of unemployment on fertility. We follow fixed cohorts of US-born women defined by their own state and year of birth, and relate their fertility to the unemployment rate experienced by each cohort at different ages. We focus on conceptions that result in a live birth. We find that women in their early 20s are most affected by high unemployment rates in the short run and that the negative effects on fertility grow over time. A one percentage point increase in the average unemployment rate experienced between the ages of 20 and 24 reduces the short-run fertility of women in this age range by six conceptions per 1,000 women. When we follow these women to age 40, we find that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate experienced at ages 20–24 leads to an overall loss of 14.2 conceptions. This long-run effect is driven largely by women who remain childless and thus do not have either first births or higher-order births. PMID:25267622

An Empirical Model for Estimating the Probability of Electrical Short Circuits from Tin Whiskers. Part 2

Science.gov (United States)

Courey, Karim; Wright, Clara; Asfour, Shihab; Onar, Arzu; Bayliss, Jon; Ludwig, Larry

2009-01-01

In this experiment, an empirical model to quantify the probability of occurrence of an electrical short circuit from tin whiskers as a function of voltage was developed. This empirical model can be used to improve existing risk simulation models. FIB and TEM images of a tin whisker confirm the rare polycrystalline structure on one of the three whiskers studied. FIB cross-section of the card guides verified that the tin finish was bright tin.

Course and Short-Term Outcomes of Separation Anxiety Disorder in a Community Sample of Twins.

Science.gov (United States)

Foley, Debra L.; Pickles, Andrew; Maes, Hermine M.; Silberg, Judy L.; Eaves, Lindon J.

2004-01-01

Objective: To assess the course and short-term outcomes associated with separation anxiety disorder (SAD) in a community setting. Method: The subjects were 161 of 2,061 8- to 17-year-old twins with SAD from a community-based twin study. Subjects were born between 1974 and 1983. Subjects and parents were personally interviewed about the subject's…

The politics of power: Electricity reform in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joseph, Kelli L.

2010-01-01

Ongoing theft, corruption, and an artificially decreased pricing structure have made it nearly impossible for the state utilities in India to improve power service. As a result, industrial consumers across India exit the state-run system and rely on their own on-site power generation in order to ensure a consistent and reliable source of electricity. The 2003 Electricity Act encourages further power production from these captive plants through its open access clause. By encouraging the growth of these captive power plants, politicians in India set up a dual-track economy, whereby state-run and market-run production exist side-by-side. This strategy allows politicians to encourage private sector involvement in the electricity market, without jeopardizing the support of key political constituencies at the state level.

THE RATE OF CURRENT CHANGE DURING A SHORT CIRCUIT IN THE POWER CIRCUITS OF THE ELECTRIC ROLLING STOCK WITH REGARD TO EDDY CURRENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. V. Dubinets

2010-04-01

Full Text Available In the article the issue of influence of vortical currents on rate of change of short circuit current is considered, a mathematical model for the calculation of short circuit currents in the traction mode in the power circuits of DC electric rolling stock is presented, and the research results are given.

Running Injuries in the Participants of Ljubljana Marathon.

Science.gov (United States)

Vitez, Luka; Zupet, Petra; Zadnik, Vesna; Drobnič, Matej

2017-10-01

The aim of our study was to determine the self-reported incidence and prevalence of running-related injuries among participants of the 18 th Ljubljana Marathon, and to identify risk factors for their occurrence. A customized questionnaire was distributed over registration. Independent samples of t-test and chi-square test were used to calculate the differences in risk factors occurrence in the injured and non-injured group. Factors which appeared significantly more frequently in the injured group were included further into multiple logistic regression analysis. The reported lifetime running injury (absence >2 weeks) incidence was: 46% none, 47% rarely, 4% occasionally, and 2% often. Most commonly injured body regions were: knee (30%), ankle and Achilles' tendon (24%), foot (15%), and calf (12%). Male gender, running history of 1-3 years, and history of previous injuries were risk factors for life-time running injury. In the season preceding the event, 65% of participants had not experienced any running injuries, 19% of them reported minor problems (max 2 weeks absenteeism), but 10% and 7% suffered from moderate (absence 3-4 weeks) or major (more than 4 weeks pause) injuries. BMI was identified as the solely risk factor. This self-reported study revealed a 53% lifetime prevalence of running-related injuries, with the predominate involvement of knee, ankle and Achilles' tendon. One out of three recreational runners experienced at least one minor running injury per season. It seems that male gender, short running experience, previous injury, and BMI do increase the probability for running-related injuries.

Variations in the electrical short-circuit current decay for recombination lifetime and velocity measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Tae-Won; Lindholm, Fredrik A.; Neugroschel, Arnost

1987-01-01

An improved measurement system for electrical short-circuit current decay is presented that extends applicability of the method to silicon solar cells having an effective lifetime as low as 1 microsec. The system uses metal/oxide/semiconductor transistors as voltage-controlled switches. Advances in theory developed here increase precision and sensitivity in the determination of the minority-carrier recombination lifetime and recombination velocity. A variation of the method, which exploits measurements made on related back-surface field and back-ohmic contact devices, further improves precision and sensitivity. The improvements are illustrated by application to 15 different silicon solar cells.

Impact of Visceral Obesity and Sarcopenia on Short-Term Outcomes After Colorectal Cancer Surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Wei-Zhe; Chen, Xiao-Dong; Ma, Liang-Liang; Zhang, Feng-Min; Lin, Ji; Zhuang, Cheng-Le; Yu, Zhen; Chen, Xiao-Lei; Chen, Xiao-Xi

2018-06-01

With the increased prevalence of obesity and sarcopenia, those patients with both visceral obesity and sarcopenia were at higher risk of adverse outcomes. The aim of this study was to ascertain the combined impact of visceral obesity and sarcopenia on short-term outcomes in patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery. We conducted a prospective study from July 2014 to February 2017. Patients' demographic, clinical characteristics, physical performance, and postoperative short-term outcomes were collected. Patients were classified into four groups according to the presence of sarcopenia or visceral obesity. Clinical variables were compared. Univariate and multivariate analyses evaluating the risk factors for postoperative complications were performed. A total of 376 patients were included; 50.8 and 24.5% of the patients were identified as having "visceral obesity" and "sarcopenia," respectively. Patients with sarcopenia and visceral obesity had the highest incidence of total, surgical, and medical complications. Patients with sarcopenia or/and visceral obesity all had longer hospital stays and higher hospitalization costs. Age ≥ 65 years, visceral obesity, and sarcopenia were independent risk factors for total complications. Rectal cancer and visceral obesity were independent risk factors for surgical complications. Age ≥ 65 years and sarcopenia were independent risk factors for medical complications. Laparoscopy-assisted operation was a protective factor for total and medical complications. Patients with both visceral obesity and sarcopenia had a higher complication rate after colorectal cancer surgery. Age ≥ 65 years, visceral obesity, and sarcopenia were independent risk factors for total complications. Laparoscopy-assisted operation was a protective factor.

Multi-level prediction of short-term outcome of depression : non-verbal interpersonal processes, cognitions and personality traits

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Geerts, E; Bouhuys, N

1998-01-01

It was hypothesized that personality factors determine the short-term outcome of depression, and that they may do this via non-verbal interpersonal interactions and via cognitive interpretations of non-verbal behaviour. Twenty-six hospitalized depressed patients entered the study. Personality

Electricity Consumption, Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Godwin Effiong Akpan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper applies a Multivariate Vector Error Correction (VECM framework to examine the long run and causal relationship between electricity consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Nigeria. Using annual time series data for 1970 to 2008, findings show that in the long run, economic growth is associated with increase carbon emissions, while an increase in electricity consumption leads to an increase in carbon emissions. These imply that Nigeria’s growth process is pollution intensive, while the negative relationship between electricity consumption (or positive relationship between electricity consumption and emissions in Nigeria is a clear indication that electricity consumption in the country has intensified carbon emissions. No support was obtained for the hypothesized environmental Kuznets curve (EKC. Granger-causality results confirm a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to carbon emissions, indicating that carbon emissions reduction policies could be pursued without reducing economic growth in Nigeria. No causality was found between electricity and growth, in either way, which further lends credence to the crisis in the Nigerian electricity sector. Overall, the paper submits that efficient planning and increased investment in electricity infrastructure development may be the crucial missing variable in the obtained neutrality hypothesis between electricity and growth.

Outcomes of electrically stimulated gracilis neosphincter surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Tillin, T; Chambers, M; Feldman, R

2005-07-01

To examine patient quality of life (QoL) and long-term costs of electrically stimulated gracilis neosphincter surgery (ESGNS). Independently conducted prospective case-comparison study of patients at the Royal London Hospital (RLH), plus a cross-sectional study of outcomes of ESGNS performed at three other UK centres. Cases were patients who underwent ESGNS at the participating hospitals during a 5-year period from 1977. Comparisons were made with two groups of people with similar bowel disorders who did not undergo ESGNS. ESGNS is a procedure designed to improve bowel function for people living with severe faecal incontinence or stomas. It involves transposition of the gracilis muscle to form a neo-anal sphincter. The transposed muscle is electrically stimulated via an electronic pulse generator implanted beneath the skin of the abdomen. Clinical success and symptomatic outcomes of surgery. Generic, domain and condition specific measures of QoL. Comparative costs to the NHS of ESGNS and conventional alternatives. At 3 years after surgery approximately three-quarters of patients still had functioning neosphincters. At this stage, bowel-related QoL and continence improved by more than 20% for nearly two-thirds of RLH patients. However, ongoing bowel evacuation difficulties occurred in half of those with good continence outcomes. QoL improvements were maintained in the smaller group of RLH patients who had reached 4 and 5 years of follow-up, although at this stage the proportion with failed neosphincters had increased. The RLH findings were supported by those from the three other UK centres. No significant changes in QoL were observed in the comparison groups during the follow-up period. The mean cost of patient care at RLH, was 23,253 pounds. In the other three centres, the estimated mean cost of the intervention per patient was 11,731 pounds, reflecting fewer planned operations and repeat admissions. Costs of patient care for those with stomas who did not undergo

Family Structure Changes and Children's Health, Behavior, and Educational Outcomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Astrid Würtz

More and more children do not grow up in traditional nuclear families. Instead they grow up in single parent households or in families with a step-parent. Hence it is important to improve our understanding of the impact of "shocks" in family structure due to parental relationship dissolution...... on children. In this study I empirically test whether children are traumatized both in the short and the long run by shocks in the family structure during childhood. I focus on educational, behavioral, and health outcomes. A population sample of Danish children born in January to May 1983, 1984, and 1985...... is used for the analysis. The empirical cross-sectional analysis indicates a negative relation between the number of family structure changes and children.s educational outcomes. Children experiencing many family structure changes also seem to have worse health outcomes....

Family Structure Changes and Children's Health, Behavior, and Educational Outcomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Astrid Würtz

More and more children do not grow up in traditional nuclear families. Instead, they grow up in single-parent households or in families with a step-parent. Hence, it is important to improve our understanding of the impact of "shocks" in family structure due to parental relationship dissolution...... on children. In this study I empirically test whether children are traumatized both in the short and the long run by shocks in the family structure during childhood. I focus on educational, behavioral, and health outcomes. A population sample of Danish children born in January to May 1985 is used...... for the analysis. The empirical cross-sectional analysis indicates a negative relation between the number of family structure changes and children.s health, behavior, and educational outcomes. These results are con.rmed by a differences-in-differences analysis of health outcomes. This suggests...

Firm-specific impacts of CO_2 prices on the stock market value of the Spanish power industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pereira da Silva, Patricia; Moreno, Blanca; Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho

2016-01-01

European Union carbon emissions allowances (EUA) price fluctuations can affect electricity companies' stock market values as these oscillations may change firms' profitability and thus investors' decisions. This outcome can differ not only contingent on the EU ETS Phase, but also on firms' generation mix. Moreover, stock markets may react differently to EUA increases in comparison to decreases, thus asymmetrically. By using daily data from January 2008 to July 2014, this article analyses long-run equilibrium relations and short-run interactions between the aggregated electricity industry stock market returns and EUA price changes. Moreover, we test if the relationship between EUA price variations and electricity stock returns is asymmetric and if the carbon price effect and the asymmetry are power firm-specific. Adding to earlier studies, we initially provide an inspection of the individual impact of EU ETS Phase II and on-going Phase III; followed by a comparative analysis between power firms which core activity relies on renewable energy sources and those whose sources are fundamentally non-renewable ones. A statistically significant positive long-run impact of EU ETS on the aggregated power sector stock market return is found concerning Phase II and works asymmetrically. Moreover, evidence is provided demonstrating that asymmetry and EUA effects are power firm-specific. - Highlights: •EU ETS impacts on stock market returns of Spanish power sector. •Long-run positive effect of EU ETS on market returns is found only in Phase II. •No short-run effects were found. •EUA price effect is company-specific.

Development of a Short Version of the Thyroid-Related Patient-Reported Outcome ThyPRO

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Watt, Torquil; Bjorner, Jakob Bue; Groenvold, Mogens

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Thyroid diseases affect quality of life (QoL). The Thyroid-Related Patient-Reported Outcome (ThyPRO) is an international comprehensive well-validated patient-reported outcome, measuring thyroid-related QoL. The current version is rather long-85 items. The purpose of the present study...... was to develop an abbreviated version of the ThyPRO, with conserved good measurement properties. METHODS: A cross-sectional (N = 907) and a longitudinal sample (N = 435) of thyroid patients were analyzed. A graded item response theory (IRT) model was fitted to the cross-sectional data. Short-form scales.......89-0.98), and the mean scale levels were similar. CONCLUSIONS: A 39-item version of the ThyPRO, with good measurement properties, was developed and is recommended for clinical use....

Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain:Informal Job Search Methods and Post-Displacement Outcomes

OpenAIRE

Green, Colin

2012-01-01

This paper examines the role of informal job search methods on the labour market outcomes of displaced workers. Informal job search methods could alleviate short-term labour market difficulties of displaced workers by providing information on job opportunities, allowing them to signal their productivity and may mitigate wage losses through better post-displacement job matching. However if displacement results from reductions in demand for specific sectors/skills, the use of informal job searc...

Running gratings in photoconductive materials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kukhtarev, N. V.; Kukhtareva, T.; Lyuksyutov, S. F.

2005-01-01

Starting from the three-dimensional version of a standard photorefractive model (STPM), we obtain a reduced compact Set of equations for an electric field based on the assumption of a quasi-steady-state fast recombination. The equations are suitable for evaluation of a current induced by running...... gratings at small-contrast approximation and also are applicable for the description of space-charge wave domains. We discuss spatial domain and subharmonic beam formation in bismuth silicon oxide (BSO) crystals in the framework of the small-contrast approximation of STPM. The experimental results...

The acceptability, usability and short-term outcomes of Get Real: A web-based program for psychotic-like experiences (PLEs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emma Stafford

2015-09-01

Conclusions: The current study provided initial support for the acceptability, utility and positive short-term outcomes of Get Real. The program now requires efficacy testing in randomized controlled trials.

Effects of a concurrent strength and endurance training on running performance and running economy in recreational marathon runners.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrauti, Alexander; Bergermann, Matthias; Fernandez-Fernandez, Jaime

2010-10-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of a concurrent strength and endurance training program on running performance and running economy of middle-aged runners during their marathon preparation. Twenty-two (8 women and 14 men) recreational runners (mean ± SD: age 40.0 ± 11.7 years; body mass index 22.6 ± 2.1 kg·m⁻²) were separated into 2 groups (n = 11; combined endurance running and strength training program [ES]: 9 men, 2 women and endurance running [E]: 7 men, and 4 women). Both completed an 8-week intervention period that consisted of either endurance training (E: 276 ± 108 minute running per week) or a combined endurance and strength training program (ES: 240 ± 121-minute running plus 2 strength training sessions per week [120 minutes]). Strength training was focused on trunk (strength endurance program) and leg muscles (high-intensity program). Before and after the intervention, subjects completed an incremental treadmill run and maximal isometric strength tests. The initial values for VO2peak (ES: 52.0 ± 6.1 vs. E: 51.1 ± 7.5 ml·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹) and anaerobic threshold (ES: 3.5 ± 0.4 vs. E: 3.4 ± 0.5 m·s⁻¹) were identical in both groups. A significant time × intervention effect was found for maximal isometric force of knee extension (ES: from 4.6 ± 1.4 to 6.2 ± 1.0 N·kg⁻¹, p marathon running velocities (2.4 and 2.8 m·s⁻¹) and submaximal blood lactate thresholds (2.0, 3.0, and 4.0 mmol·L⁻¹). Stride length and stride frequency also remained unchanged. The results suggest no benefits of an 8-week concurrent strength training for running economy and coordination of recreational marathon runners despite a clear improvement in leg strength, maybe because of an insufficient sample size or a short intervention period.

Self-concept and quality of object relations as predictors of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindfors, Olavi; Knekt, Paul; Heinonen, Erkki; Virtala, Esa

2014-01-01

Quality of object relations and self-concept reflect clinically relevant aspects of personality functioning, but their prediction as suitability factors for psychotherapies of different lengths has not been compared. This study compared their prediction on psychiatric symptoms and work ability in short- and long-term psychotherapy. Altogether 326 patients, 20-46 years of age, with mood and/or anxiety disorder, were randomized to short-term (solution-focused or short-term psychodynamic) psychotherapy and long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy. The Quality of Object Relations Scale (QORS) and the Structural Analysis of Social Behavior (SASB) self-concept questionnaire were measured at baseline, and their prediction on outcome during the 3-year follow-up was assessed by the Symptom Check List Global Severity Index and the Anxiety Scale, the Beck Depression Inventory and by the Work Ability Index, Social Adjustment Scale work subscale and the Perceived Psychological Functioning scale. Negative self-concept strongly and self-controlling characteristics modestly predicted better 3-year outcomes in long-term therapy, after faster early gains in short-term therapy. Patients with a more positive or self-emancipating self-concept, or more mature object relations, experienced more extensive benefits after long-term psychotherapy. The importance of length vs. long-term therapy technique on the differences found is not known. Patients with mild to moderate personality pathology, indicated by poor self-concept, seem to benefit more from long-term than short-term psychotherapy, in reducing risk of depression. Long-term therapy may also be indicated for patients with relatively good psychological functioning. More research is needed on the relative importance of these characteristics in comparison with other patient-related factors. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.

LHC Report: Run 1 – the final flurry

CERN Multimedia

Mike Lamont for the LHC team

2013-01-01

The proton-lead run ended early on the morning of Sunday, 10 February. The run can be considered an unqualified success and a testament to the painstaking preparation by the ion team. It was followed by a few short days of proton-proton collisions at intermediate energy, after which the final physics beams of what is now being called Run 1 (2009 – 2013) were dumped at 07:24 on Thursday, 14 February.   The five weeks of operations originally scheduled for 2013 had two main objectives: the delivery of 30 inverse nanobarns with proton-lead collisions; and around 5 inverse picobarns of proton-proton collisions at a beam energy of 1.38 TeV. Both of these objectives were met. As described in previous reports, the proton-lead run has gone remarkably well for a completely novel operational mode. However, there were some issues following the switch of beam direction on Friday, 1 February. In this exercise the ions become the clockwise beam and the experiments received lead-proton instead of ...

Climate impact and energy efficiency from electricity generation through anaerobic digestion or direct combustion of short rotation coppice willow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ericsson, Niclas; Nordberg, Åke; Sundberg, Cecilia; Ahlgren, Serina; Hansson, Per-Anders

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Using LCA, CHP from willow use in biogas was compared with direct combustion. • Direct combustion was ninefold more energy-efficient. • Biogas had a much greater cooling effect on global mean surface temperature. • The effects of soil carbon changes on temperature over time differed. • Biogas had long-term temperature effects, direct combustion short-term effects. - Abstract: Short rotation coppice willow is an energy crop used in Sweden to produce electricity and heat in combined heat and power plants. Recent laboratory-scale experiments have shown that SRC willow can also be used for biogas production in anaerobic digestion processes. Here, life cycle assessment is used to compare the climate impact and energy efficiency of electricity and heat generated by these measures. All energy inputs and greenhouse gas emissions, including soil organic carbon fluxes were included in the life cycle assessment. The climate impact was determined using time-dependent life cycle assessment methodology. Both systems showed a positive net energy balance, but the direct combustion system delivered ninefold more energy than the biogas system. Both systems had a cooling effect on the global mean surface temperature change. The cooling impact per hectare from the biogas system was ninefold higher due to the carbon returned to soil with the digestate. Compensating the lower energy production of the biogas system with external energy sources had a large impact on the result, effectively determining whether the biogas scenario had a net warming or cooling contribution to the global mean temperature change per kWh of electricity. In all cases, the contribution to global warming was lowered by the inclusion of willow in the energy system. The use of time-dependent climate impact methodology shows that extended use of short rotation coppice willow can contribute to counteract global warming

Age-related hip fractures in men: clinical spectrum and short-term outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Poór, G; Atkinson, E J; Lewallen, D G; O'Fallon, W M; Melton, L J

1995-01-01

Clinical spectrum, treatment and short-term outcomes were assessed among the 131 Rochester, Minnesota, men who contracted an initial hip fracture due to moderate trauma during 1978-89. Three-fourths of falls leading to hip fracture occurred indoors with little seasonality, and 91% of fractures were in men 65 years of age or older. The ratio of cervical to intertrochanteric femur fractures was 1.4:1, and there was a tendency toward more neurological conditions among the patients with cervical fractures. Hemiarthroplasty and total hip replacement were mostly performed for cervical fractures, while internal fixation was preferred for intertrochanteric fractures. In-hospital mortality was 11.5%, and the 30-day case fatality rate was 16.0%. Age and postoperative deterioration of mental status significantly increased the risk of early death, the latter even after adjustment in a multivariate model, while comorbidity had a suggestive but not statistically significant influence on mortality. More than half the men were discharged to nursing homes, and 79% of the patients who survived at 1 year resided in nursing homes or intermediate care facilities or were attended by home care. Only 41% of survivors recovered their prefracture level of functioning and nearly 60% of patients limped and required a cane or walker. After implementation of the prospective payment system in 1984, the length of hospital stay was reduced, but there was no change in early mortality rates, in the duration of physical therapy following fracture or in attendance at nursing homes. The results of this population-based study demonstrate the strong impact of hip fractures on short-term outcomes in men.

Short term outcome of Percutanous Coronary Intervention in diabetic and non-diabetic patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nouzari Y

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Background: Despite recent improvement in coronary intervention, there are many controversies about it’s results in diabetic patients. The goal of this study is comparison of in hospital outcome of diabetics after coronary intervention with nondiabetics. Methods: In this study 115 diabetic and 115non diabetic patients who admitted for coronary intervention in our center during 1383&84 were entered in an analytic study of Cohort type. Datas about clinical, aniographic, procedural and post procedural (24hours characteristics were entered in each patient’s form. Independent T test,chi-square and Fisher’s exact test were used for analyzing datas. Results: The Diabetic Patients were most often older men, and they had higher angina class, more co-risk factors and lower ejection fractions. Diabetic’s lesions were longer and more located in proximal portion of vessels. But success rate, major complication (death, revascularization, Q Wave MI and CVA, and minor complications (coronary/peripheral arteries complication, pulmonary edema, ischemic ECG had no significant differences between two groups. Conclusion: Diabetes mellitus does not affect short outcomes of coronary intervention as an independent factor. So intervention could be done in these patients with considering favorable outcomes.

Accuracy versus run time in an adiabatic quantum search

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rezakhani, A. T.; Pimachev, A. K.; Lidar, D. A.

2010-01-01

Adiabatic quantum algorithms are characterized by their run time and accuracy. The relation between the two is essential for quantifying adiabatic algorithmic performance yet is often poorly understood. We study the dynamics of a continuous time, adiabatic quantum search algorithm and find rigorous results relating the accuracy and the run time. Proceeding with estimates, we show that under fairly general circumstances the adiabatic algorithmic error exhibits a behavior with two discernible regimes: The error decreases exponentially for short times and then decreases polynomially for longer times. We show that the well-known quadratic speedup over classical search is associated only with the exponential error regime. We illustrate the results through examples of evolution paths derived by minimization of the adiabatic error. We also discuss specific strategies for controlling the adiabatic error and run time.

Outcomes of short-gap sensory nerve injuries reconstructed with processed nerve allografts from a multicenter registry study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rinker, Brian D; Ingari, John V; Greenberg, Jeffrey A; Thayer, Wesley P; Safa, Bauback; Buncke, Gregory M

2015-06-01

Short-gap digital nerve injuries are a common surgical problem, but the optimal treatment modality is unknown. A multicenter database was queried and analyzed to determine the outcomes of nerve gap reconstructions between 5 and 15 mm with processed nerve allograft. The current RANGER registry is designed to continuously monitor and compile injury, repair, safety, and outcomes data. Centers followed their own standard of care for treatment and follow-up. The database was queried for digital nerve injuries with a gap between 5 and 15 mm reporting sufficient follow-up data to complete outcomes analysis. Available quantitative outcome measures were reviewed and reported. Meaningful recovery was defined by the Medical Research Council Classification (MRCC) scale at S3-S4 for sensory function. Sufficient follow-up data were available for 24 subjects (37 repairs) in the prescribed gap range. Mean age was 43 years (range, 23-81). Mean gap was 11 ± 3 (5-15) mm. Time to repair was 13 ± 42 (0-215) days. There were 25 lacerations, 8 avulsion/amputations, 2 gunshots, 1 crush injury, and 1 injury of unknown mechanism. Meaningful recovery, defined as S3-S4 on the MRCC scales, was reported in 92% of repairs. Sensory recovery of S3+ or S4 was observed in 84% of repairs. Static 2PD was 7.1 ± 2.9 mm (n = 19). Return to light touch was observed in 23 out of 32 repairs reporting Semmes-Weinstein monofilament outcomes (SWMF). There were no reported nerve adverse events. Sensory outcomes for processed nerve allografts were equivalent to historical controls for nerve autograft and exceed those of conduit. Processed nerve allografts provide an effective solution for short-gap digital nerve reconstructions. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Running economy and energy cost of running with backpacks.

Science.gov (United States)

Scheer, Volker; Cramer, Leoni; Heitkamp, Hans-Christian

2018-05-02

Running is a popular recreational activity and additional weight is often carried in backpacks on longer runs. Our aim was to examine running economy and other physiological parameters while running with a 1kg and 3 kg backpack at different submaximal running velocities. 10 male recreational runners (age 25 ± 4.2 years, VO2peak 60.5 ± 3.1 ml·kg-1·min-1) performed runs on a motorized treadmill of 5 minutes durations at three different submaximal speeds of 70, 80 and 90% of anaerobic lactate threshold (LT) without additional weight, and carrying a 1kg and 3 kg backpack. Oxygen consumption, heart rate, lactate and RPE were measured and analysed. Oxygen consumption, energy cost of running and heart rate increased significantly while running with a backpack weighing 3kg compared to running without additional weight at 80% of speed at lactate threshold (sLT) (p=0.026, p=0.009 and p=0.003) and at 90% sLT (p<0.001, p=0.001 and p=0.001). Running with a 1kg backpack showed a significant increase in heart rate at 80% sLT (p=0.008) and a significant increase in oxygen consumption and heart rate at 90% sLT (p=0.045 and p=0.007) compared to running without additional weight. While running at 70% sLT running economy and cardiovascular effort increased with weighted backpack running compared to running without additional weight, however these increases did not reach statistical significance. Running economy deteriorates and cardiovascular effort increases while running with additional backpack weight especially at higher submaximal running speeds. Backpack weight should therefore be kept to a minimum.

Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fotouhi Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali; Canizes, Bruno; Vale, Zita; Morais, Hugo

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Decision making under uncertainty. ► Stochastic Mixed Integer Quadratic Programming applied to short-term maintenance scheduling. ► Outage scheduling in Oligopolistic electricity markets. ► Generation companies maintenance scheduling. -- Abstract: In the proposed model, the independent system operator (ISO) provides the opportunity for maintenance outage rescheduling of generating units before each short-term (ST) time interval. Long-term (LT) scheduling for 1 or 2 years in advance is essential for the ISO and the generation companies (GENCOs) to decide their LT strategies; however, it is not possible to be exactly followed and requires slight adjustments. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium is used to characterize the decision-making procedure of an individual GENCO for ST intervals considering the effective coordination with LT plans. Random inputs, such as parameters of the demand function of loads, hourly demand during the following ST time interval and the expected generation pattern of the rivals, are included as scenarios in the stochastic mixed integer program defined to model the payoff-maximizing objective of a GENCO. Scenario reduction algorithms are used to deal with the computational burden. Two reliability test systems were chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for the ST decision-making process for future planned outages from the point of view of a GENCO.

Re-investigating the electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Chor Foon; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Arouri, Mohamed

2013-01-01

In the previous decades, a number of studies have been conducted to analyse the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the Portuguese economy. However, the evidence remains controversial because the previous studies do not provide clear causality evidence. This might be attributed to the omitted variables bias because most previous studies only focus on the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in a bi-variate model. This paper attempts to re-investigate the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Portugal using a multivariate model. Based on the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the Granger causality test within the vector error-correction model (VECM), our empirical results confirm the presence of cointegration among the variables. Moreover, there is evidence of bi-directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in the short- and long-run. This suggests that energy is an important source of economic growth in Portugal. Therefore, energy conservation policies should not be implemented because it would deteriorate the process of economic growth and development of the Portuguese economy. - Highlights: • Electricity consumption and economic growth series in Portugal are cointegrated. • There is evidence of feedback effects between the two variables. • Energy is an important source of economic growth in Portugal

Evolution of Wholesale Electricity Market Design with Increasing Levels of Renewable Generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Bloom, A.; Botterud, A.; Townsend, A.; Levin, T.

2014-09-01

Variable generation such as wind and photovoltaic solar power has increased substantially in recent years. Variable generation has unique characteristics compared to the traditional technologies that supply energy in the wholesale electricity markets. These characteristics create unique challenges in planning and operating the power system, and they can also influence the performance and outcomes from electricity markets. This report focuses on two particular issues related to market design: revenue sufficiency for long-term reliability and incentivizing flexibility in short-term operations. The report provides an overview of current design and some designs that have been proposed by industry or researchers.

Analyzing Long-run Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the Kingdom of Bahrain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naser Hanan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Since the relation between energy consumption and economic growth is important to design effective energy policies that will promote economic growth, this study investigates the short run dynamics and causality among energy consumption, co2 emissions, oil prices and economic growth in Kingdom of Bahrain. To do so, annual data that covers the period from 1960 till 2015. Empirical work tests for unit root, co-integration relationship using Johansen (1988 approach and then estimate both long and short run dynamics using the vector error correction model (VECM. Results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the suggested variables. Since economic growth has a predictive power to estimate the energy demand of Kingdom of Bahrain, it is recommended that the government of Bahrain and policy designers shed the light on energy efficiency strategies and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth in order to move towards sustainability.

Analyzing Long-run Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the Kingdom of Bahrain

Science.gov (United States)

Naser, Hanan

2017-11-01

Since the relation between energy consumption and economic growth is important to design effective energy policies that will promote economic growth, this study investigates the short run dynamics and causality among energy consumption, co2 emissions, oil prices and economic growth in Kingdom of Bahrain. To do so, annual data that covers the period from 1960 till 2015. Empirical work tests for unit root, co-integration relationship using Johansen (1988) approach and then estimate both long and short run dynamics using the vector error correction model (VECM). Results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the suggested variables. Since economic growth has a predictive power to estimate the energy demand of Kingdom of Bahrain, it is recommended that the government of Bahrain and policy designers shed the light on energy efficiency strategies and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth in order to move towards sustainability.

Model-based fault diagnosis approach on external short circuit of lithium-ion battery used in electric vehicles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Zeyu; Xiong, Rui; Tian, Jinpeng; Shang, Xiong; Lu, Jiahuan

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The characteristics of ESC fault of lithium-ion battery are investigated experimentally. • The proposed method to simulate the electrical behavior of ESC fault is viable. • Ten parameters in the presented fault model were optimized using a DPSO algorithm. • A two-layer model-based fault diagnosis approach for battery ESC is proposed. • The effective and robustness of the proposed algorithm has been evaluated. - Abstract: This study investigates the external short circuit (ESC) fault characteristics of lithium-ion battery experimentally. An experiment platform is established and the ESC tests are implemented on ten 18650-type lithium cells considering different state-of-charges (SOCs). Based on the experiment results, several efforts have been made. (1) The ESC process can be divided into two periods and the electrical and thermal behaviors within these two periods are analyzed. (2) A modified first-order RC model is employed to simulate the electrical behavior of the lithium cell in the ESC fault process. The model parameters are re-identified by a dynamic-neighborhood particle swarm optimization algorithm. (3) A two-layer model-based ESC fault diagnosis algorithm is proposed. The first layer conducts preliminary fault detection and the second layer gives a precise model-based diagnosis. Four new cells are short-circuited to evaluate the proposed algorithm. It shows that the ESC fault can be diagnosed within 5 s, the error between the model and measured data is less than 0.36 V. The effectiveness of the fault diagnosis algorithm is not sensitive to the precision of battery SOC. The proposed algorithm can still make the correct diagnosis even if there is 10% error in SOC estimation.

The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sensfuss, Frank; Ragwitz, Mario; Genoese, Massimo

2008-01-01

The German feed-in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies. Critics state that the costs for consumers are too high. An important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in Germany. The central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices. The results generated by an agent-based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable. In the short run, this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits. In the case of the year 2006, the volume of the merit-order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers. (author)

Spontaneous Entrainment of Running Cadence to Music Tempo.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Dyck, Edith; Moens, Bart; Buhmann, Jeska; Demey, Michiel; Coorevits, Esther; Dalla Bella, Simone; Leman, Marc

Since accumulating evidence suggests that step rate is strongly associated with running-related injuries, it is important for runners to exercise at an appropriate running cadence. As music tempo has been shown to be capable of impacting exercise performance of repetitive endurance activities, it might also serve as a means to (re)shape running cadence. The aim of this study was to validate the impact of music tempo on running cadence. Sixteen recreational runners ran four laps of 200 m (i.e. 800 m in total); this task was repeated 11 times with a short break in between each four-lap sequence. During the first lap of a sequence, participants ran at a self-paced tempo without musical accompaniment. Running cadence of the first lap was registered, and during the second lap, music with a tempo matching the assessed cadence was played. In the final two laps, the music tempo was either increased/decreased by 3.00, 2.50, 2.00, 1.50, or 1.00 % or was kept stable. This range was chosen since the aim of this study was to test spontaneous entrainment (an average person can distinguish tempo variations of about 4 %). Each participant performed all conditions. Imperceptible shifts in musical tempi in proportion to the runner's self-paced running tempo significantly influenced running cadence ( p  tempo conditions and adaptation in running cadence ( p  effect of condition on the level of entrainment was revealed ( p  effects of music tempo on running cadence can only be obtained up to a certain level of tempo modification. Finally, significantly higher levels of tempo entrainment were found for female participants compared to their male counterparts ( p  music tempo could serve as an unprompted means to impact running cadence. As increases in step rate may prove beneficial in the prevention and treatment of common running-related injuries, this finding could be especially relevant for treatment purposes, such as exercise prescription and gait retraining. Music tempo

SITE WIDE SHORT CIRCUIT STUDY ASSESSMENT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

CARRATT, R.T.

2004-01-01

The Department of Energy requested that Fluor Hanford develop a plan to update the electrical distribution studies for FH managed facilities. Toward this end, an assessment of FH's nuclear facilities was performed to determine whether a current short circuit study of the facility electrical distribution system exists, and the status of such study. This report presents the methodology and results of that assessment. The assessment identified 29 relevant facilities. Of these, a short circuit study could not be identified for 15 facilities. A short circuit study was found to exist for fourteen facilities, however, of these 14, four were not released into a controlled document system, and two were not performed for the entire electrical distribution system. It is recommended that for four of the facilities no further action is required based upon the limited nature of the existing electrical system, or as in the case of PFP, the status of the existing short circuit study was determined adequate. For the majority of the facilities without a short circuit study, it is recommended that one is performed, and released into a controlled document system. Two facilities require further evaluation due to missing or conflicting documentation. For the remainder of the facilities, the recommendations are to review and revise as appropriate the existing study, and release into a controlled document system. A summation of the recommendations is presented

Laparoscopic vs. Open Right Hemicolectomies: Short Term Outcomes within an Enhanced Recovery After Surgery Programme

OpenAIRE

Chanpreet Arhi

2014-01-01

Aims: Studies that recommend laparoscopic right hemicolectomies within an Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) programme are based on data from all types of colorectal procedures. This study compares short-term outcomes following right hemicolectomies within an ERAS setting. Methods: Retrospective analysis of elective right hemicolectomies carried out between October 2008 and April 2012. Exclusion criteria:- patients not managed with an ERAS programme; inflammatory bowel disease; ASA IV and...

The opening of electricity and natural gas markets to professional clients. Yearly barometer - run 6. September 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-09-01

The opening of energy markets to competition became effective to professionals on July 1, 2004. In 2010 this opening has entered into a mature phase. As soon as 2005, a barometer survey has been implemented to investigate the professional clients and to collect statistical data about their behaviour with regards to the opening of markets to competition. This document deals with the results of the sixth run of the professionals' barometer carried out from August 30 to September 10, 2010 by the LH2 institute. Among the 1502 surveyed entities, LH2 has questioned the decision-makers responsible for the electricity and natural gas contracts. The barometer aimed at answering the following questions: - what is the level of knowledge and information of professionals about markets opening and the existing regulation? - What perception of this opening do they have? (pros/cons, advantages/drawbacks); - what behaviour do they have in front of the opening of markets to competition? (approach with respect to information needs, knowledge about the offer, intention to change supplier, brakes/motivations in entering the open market). (J.S.)

The opening of electricity and natural gas markets to professional clients. Yearly barometer - run 4. December 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-12-01

The opening of energy markets to competition became effective to professionals on July 1, 2004. In 2008 this opening is entering into a mature phase. As soon as 2005, a barometer survey has been implemented to investigate the professional clients and to collect statistical data about their behaviour with regards to the opening of markets to competition. This document deals with the results of the fourth run of the professionals' barometer carried out from November 19 to December 2, 2008 by the LH2 institute. Among the 1501 surveyed entities, LH2 has questioned the decision-makers responsible for the electricity and natural gas contracts. The barometer aimed at answering the following questions: - what is the level of knowledge and information of professionals about markets opening and the existing regulation? - What perception of this opening do they have? (pros/cons, advantages/drawbacks); - what behaviour do they have in front of the opening of markets to competition? (approach with respect to information needs, knowledge about the offer, intention to change supplier, brakes/motivations in entering the open market). (J.S.)

The opening of electricity and natural gas markets to professional clients. Yearly barometer - run 5. September 2009

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-09-01

The opening of energy markets to competition became effective to professionals on July 1, 2004. In 2008 this opening is entering into a mature phase. As soon as 2005, a barometer survey has been implemented to investigate the professional clients and to collect statistical data about their behaviour with regards to the opening of markets to competition. This document deals with the results of the fifth run of the professionals' barometer carried out from September 14 to September 25, 2009 by the LH2 institute. Among the 1501 surveyed entities, LH2 has questioned the decision-makers responsible for the electricity and natural gas contracts. The barometer aimed at answering the following questions: - what is the level of knowledge and information of professionals about markets opening and the existing regulation? - What perception of this opening do they have? (pros/cons, advantages/drawbacks); - what behaviour do they have in front of the opening of markets to competition? (approach with respect to information needs, knowledge about the offer, intention to change supplier, brakes/motivations in entering the open market). (J.S.)

The opening of electricity and natural gas markets to professional clients. Yearly barometer - run 7. September 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-09-01

The opening of energy markets to competition became effective to professionals on July 1, 2004. In 2008 this opening is entering into a mature phase. As soon as 2005, a barometer survey has been implemented to investigate the professional clients and to collect statistical data about their behaviour with regards to the opening of markets to competition. This document deals with the results of the seventh run of the professionals' barometer carried out from September 5 to September 12, 2011 by the LH2 institute. Among the 1508 surveyed entities, LH2 has questioned the decision-makers responsible for the electricity and natural gas contracts. The barometer aimed at answering the following questions: - what is the level of knowledge and information of professionals about markets opening and the existing regulation? - What perception of this opening do they have? (pros/cons, advantages/drawbacks); - what behaviour do they have in front of the opening of markets to competition? (approach with respect to information needs, knowledge about the offer, intention to change supplier, brakes/motivations in entering the open market). (J.S.)

A physiotherapy triage assessment service for people with low back disorders: evaluation of short-term outcomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bath B

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Brenna Bath, Punam PahwaCollege of Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, CanadaPurpose: To determine the short-term effects of physiotherapy triage assessments on self-reported pain, functioning, and general well-being and quality of life in people with low back-related disorders.Methods: Participants with low back–related complaints were recruited from those referred to a spinal triage assessment program delivered by physiotherapists (PTs. Before undergoing the triage assessment, the participants completed a battery of questionnaires covering a range of sociodemographic, clinical, and psychosocial features. The study used the Numeric Pain Rating Scale (NPRS, the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI, and the Medical Outcomes Survey 36-item short-form version 2 (SF-36v2 to assess self-reported pain, function, and quality of life. Baseline measures and variables were analyzed using a descriptive analysis method (ie, proportions, means, medians. Paired samples t-tests or Wilcoxon matched-pair signed-rank tests were used to analyze the overall group differences between the pretest and posttest outcome measures where appropriate.Results: A total of 108 out of 115 (93.9% participants completed the posttest survey. The Physical Component Summary of the SF36v2 was the only measure that demonstrated significant improvement (P < 0.001.Conclusion: A spinal triage assessment program delivered by PTs can be viewed as a complex intervention that may have the potential to affect a wide range of patient-related outcomes. Further research is needed to examine the long-term outcomes and explore potential mechanisms of improvement using a biopsychosocial framework.Keywords: interprofessional practice, quality of life, back pain, orthopedics

Revisiting long-run relations in power markets with high RES penetration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gianfreda, Angelica; Parisio, Lucia; Pelagatti, Matteo

2016-01-01

Electricity generation from renewable energy resources (RES) has become increasingly significant to reach EU and emissions reduction targets. At the same time, one of the main EU policy goals has been the creation of a common internal energy market for Europe. In this paper, we focus on these two issues previously studied separately, considering their possible interactions. We first analyze the long-run relationship between day-ahead electricity prices and fuel prices (natural gas and coal) looking at two samples of years characterized by low and high RES penetration, then we explore the integration of EU markets. We show that the electricity–fuel nexus found over 2006–2008 changed dramatically over 2010–2014 for the majority of countries considered. In particular, the long-run dependence of electricity from gas and coal prices is much lower in recent years. Furthermore, our results confirm that the considered EU countries are becoming less integrated as RES-E increases. Our findings suggest that nationally implemented policies to support renewables are successful in increasing RES penetration, but they have lessened the linkage among EU markets, then making integration more difficult to obtain. - Highlights: •RES lower the intra-daily electricity dependence from coal and natural gas. •RES affect the EU wholesale electricity market integration, studied at hourly level. •Overlapping national and supranational policies tackle the achievement of EU targets. •Strong policy coordination is required to avoid that the “greens” promote the “dirtiest”.

Excessive progression in weekly running distance and risk of running-related injuries: an association which varies according to type of injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsen, Rasmus Østergaard; Parner, Erik Thorlund; Nohr, Ellen Aagaard; Sørensen, Henrik; Lind, Martin; Rasmussen, Sten

2014-10-01

An explorative, 1-year prospective cohort study. Objective To examine whether an association between a sudden change in weekly running distance and running-related injury varies according to injury type. It is widely accepted that a sudden increase in running distance is strongly related to injury in runners. But the scientific knowledge supporting this assumption is limited. A volunteer sample of 874 healthy novice runners who started a self-structured running regimen were provided a global-positioning-system watch. After each running session during the study period, participants were categorized into 1 of the following exposure groups, based on the progression of their weekly running distance: less than 10% or regression, 10% to 30%, or more than 30%. The primary outcome was running-related injury. A total of 202 runners sustained a running-related injury. Using Cox regression analysis, no statistically significant differences in injury rates were found across the 3 exposure groups. An increased rate of distance-related injuries (patellofemoral pain, iliotibial band syndrome, medial tibial stress syndrome, gluteus medius injury, greater trochanteric bursitis, injury to the tensor fascia latae, and patellar tendinopathy) existed in those who progressed their weekly running distance by more than 30% compared with those who progressed less than 10% (hazard ratio = 1.59; 95% confidence interval: 0.96, 2.66; P = .07). Novice runners who progressed their running distance by more than 30% over a 2-week period seem to be more vulnerable to distance-related injuries than runners who increase their running distance by less than 10%. Owing to the exploratory nature of the present study, randomized controlled trials are needed to verify these results, and more experimental studies are needed to validate the assumptions. Still, novice runners may be well advised to progress their weekly distances by less than 30% per week over a 2-week period.

Can We "Predict" Long-Term Outcome for Ambulatory Transcutaneous Electrical Nerve Stimulation in Patients with Chronic Pain?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koke, A.J.; Smeets, R.J.E.M.; Perez, R.S.G.M.; Kessels, A.; Winkens, B.; van Kleef, M.; Patijn, J.

2015-01-01

Background: Evidence for effectiveness of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) is still inconclusive. As heterogeneity of chronic pain patients might be an important factor for this lack of efficacy, identifying factors for a successful long-term outcome is of great importance.

Testing of Commercial Milk Production Technology Using A Combination of High Temperature Short Time and Pulsed Electric Field

OpenAIRE

Hadi A; Widjanarko SB; Kusnadi J

2016-01-01

The development of milk processing technology has grown excessively, and it contains advantage and disadvantage. This study used mixed between PEF (Pulsed Electric Field) and High Temperature Short Time (HTST) to produce milk processed product which is effective and efficient in killing milk microorganism without changing its color, scent, and nutrient content of processed product, therefore producing commercial sterile milk product in accord with milk Indonesian National Standard (SNI). The ...

Barefoot running: biomechanics and implications for running injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Altman, Allison R; Davis, Irene S

2012-01-01

Despite the technological developments in modern running footwear, up to 79% of runners today get injured in a given year. As we evolved barefoot, examining this mode of running is insightful. Barefoot running encourages a forefoot strike pattern that is associated with a reduction in impact loading and stride length. Studies have shown a reduction in injuries to shod forefoot strikers as compared with rearfoot strikers. In addition to a forefoot strike pattern, barefoot running also affords the runner increased sensory feedback from the foot-ground contact, as well as increased energy storage in the arch. Minimal footwear is being used to mimic barefoot running, but it is not clear whether it truly does. The purpose of this article is to review current and past research on shod and barefoot/minimal footwear running and their implications for running injuries. Clearly more research is needed, and areas for future study are suggested.

Arch index and running biomechanics in children aged 10-14 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollander, Karsten; Stebbins, Julie; Albertsen, Inke Marie; Hamacher, Daniel; Babin, Kornelia; Hacke, Claudia; Zech, Astrid

2018-03-01

While altered foot arch characteristics (high or low) are frequently assumed to influence lower limb biomechanics and are suspected to be a contributing factor for injuries, the association between arch characteristics and lower limb running biomechanics in children is unclear. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between a dynamically measured arch index and running biomechanics in healthy children. One hundred and one children aged 10-14 years were included in this study and underwent a biomechanical investigation. Plantar distribution (Novel, Emed) was used to determine the dynamic arch index and 3D motion capture (Vicon) to measure running biomechanics. Linear mixed models were established to determine the association between dynamic arch index and foot strike patterns, running kinematics, kinetics and temporal-spatial outcomes. No association was found between dynamic arch index and rate of rearfoot strikes (p = 0.072). Of all secondary outcomes, only the foot progression angle was associated with the dynamic arch index (p = 0.032) with greater external rotation in lower arched children. Overall, we found only few associations between arch characteristics and running biomechanics in children. However, altered foot arch characteristics are of clinical interest. Future studies should focus on detailed foot biomechanics and include clinically diagnosed high and low arched children. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The PS locomotive runs again

CERN Multimedia

2001-01-01

Over forty years ago, the PS train entered service to steer the magnets of the accelerator into place... ... a service that was resumed last Tuesday. Left to right: Raymond Brown (CERN), Claude Tholomier (D.B.S.), Marcel Genolin (CERN), Gérard Saumade (D.B.S.), Ingo Ruehl (CERN), Olivier Carlier (D.B.S.), Patrick Poisot (D.B.S.), Christian Recour (D.B.S.). It is more than ten years since people at CERN heard the rumbling of the old PS train's steel wheels. Last Tuesday, the locomotive came back into service to be tested. It is nothing like the monstrous steel engines still running on conventional railways -just a small electric battery-driven vehicle employed on installing the magnets for the PS accelerator more than 40 years ago. To do so, it used the tracks that run round the accelerator. In fact, it is the grandfather of the LEP monorail. After PS was commissioned in 1959, the little train was used more and more rarely. This is because magnets never break down, or hardly ever! In fact, the loc...

Liberalising European electricity markets: opportunities and risks for a sustainable power sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringel, M.

2003-01-01

The process of liberalising European electricity markets, encompassing a wide range of restructuring activities, has mainly been spurred by the attempt to increase the economic efficiency of the whole sector. This process might be used to trigger a development towards a sustainable power sector by increasing the use of renewable energy sources and enhancing energy efficiency on the supply and demand side. However, by taking a closer look at the current trends of the European electricity markets, it becomes obvious that the liberalisation not only implies opportunities but also risks for the creation of a sustainable power sector. Many of these risks are due to market distortions and imperfections caused by the delay in creating a fully functional single European market. Thus, in the short-term, the market liberalisation tends to constitute more risks than opportunities without government actions to prevent these risks. In the long run, though, the efficiency gains of the sector and the appearance of new market factors are likely to bring forth the opportunities of liberalisation and actively foster a transformation towards a sustainable electricity sector. (author)

Percutaneous-endoscopic rendezvous procedure for the management of bile duct injuries after cholecystectomy: short- and long-term outcomes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schreuder, Anne Marthe; Booij, Klaske A. C.; de Reuver, Philip R.; van Delden, Otto M.; van Lienden, Krijn P.; Besselink, Marc G.; Busch, Olivier R.; Gouma, Dirk J.; Rauws, Erik A. J.; van Gulik, Thomas M.

2018-01-01

Bile duct injury (BDI) remains a daunting complication of laparoscopic cholecystectomy. In patients with complex BDI, a percutaneous-endoscopic rendezvous procedure may be required to establish bile duct continuity. The aim of this study was to assess short- and long-term outcomes of the rendezvous

Global Asset Pricing: Is There a Role for Long-run Consumption Risk?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rangvid, Jesper; Schmelling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

We estimate long-run consumption-based asset pricing models using a comprehensive set of international test assets, including broad equity market portfolios, international value/growth portfolios, and international bond portfolios. We find that differences in returns across assets within a countr...... that consumption growth is more predictable over short to medium-run horizons than over longer horizons and that empirical evidence of a de- clining risk aversion parameter estimate in long-run risk models has to be interpreted with care....... are sometimes (and most prominently for the U.S.) better captured by the assets' exposure to long-run consumption risk as opposed to their exposure to one-period changes in consumption (the canonical consumption CAPM). Across countries, however, exposure to long-run consumption risk does not provide a better...... fit than the canonical consumption CAPM. Thus, when characterizing the cross-country distribution of returns, long-run consumption risk does not seem to play any particular role, even if long-run risk is important for explaining the cross section of expected returns in the U.S. Furthermore, we show...

Real-time energy resources scheduling considering short-term and very short-term wind forecast

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silva, Marco; Sousa, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Vale, Zita [Polytechnic of Porto (Portugal). GECAD - Knowledge Engineering and Decision Support Research Center

2012-07-01

This paper proposes an energy resources management methodology based on three distinct time horizons: day-ahead scheduling, hour-ahead scheduling, and real-time scheduling. In each scheduling process the update of generation and consumption operation and of the storage and electric vehicles storage status are used. Besides the new operation conditions, the most accurate forecast values of wind generation and of consumption using results of short-term and very short-term methods are used. A case study considering a distribution network with intensive use of distributed generation and electric vehicles is presented. (orig.)

Technique and Short-Term Outcomes of Single-Port Surgery for Rectal Cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bulut, O; Aslak, K K; Rosenstock, S

2013-01-01

Although conventional laparoscopic surgery is less traumatic than open surgery, it does cause tissue trauma and multiple scar formation. The size and number of ports determine the extent of the trauma. Single-port laparoscopic surgery is assumed to minimize and perhaps eliminate the potential adv...... adverse effects of conventional laparoscopy. The aim of this study was to examine short-term outcomes of single-port laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer.......Although conventional laparoscopic surgery is less traumatic than open surgery, it does cause tissue trauma and multiple scar formation. The size and number of ports determine the extent of the trauma. Single-port laparoscopic surgery is assumed to minimize and perhaps eliminate the potential...

Intelligent Electricity Broker

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grode, Jesper Nicolai Riis; Væggemose, Poul Erik; Kulik, Tomas

The Intelligent Electricity Broker (IEB) is a new energy storage and energy broker facility that serves two purposes. Firstly, it allows for storing excessive energy in the Smart Grid [1, 2, 3] it is connected to. Secondly, it runs a broker-algorithm that ensures that energy is purchased and sold...... when feasible to the system owner. This paper describes how the IEB can be used by house owners, in building clusters, and/or by energy providers to take advantage of electricity stock market prices and weather forecasts to control energy surplus storage suffers as well as to lower electricity bills...

Running and Knee Osteoarthritis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Timmins, Kate A; Leech, Richard D; Batt, Mark E; Edwards, Kimberley L

2017-05-01

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a chronic condition characterized by pain, impaired function, and reduced quality of life. A number of risk factors for knee OA have been identified, such as obesity, occupation, and injury. The association between knee OA and physical activity or particular sports such as running is less clear. Previous reviews, and the evidence that informs them, present contradictory or inconclusive findings. This systematic review aimed to determine the association between running and the development of knee OA. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Four electronic databases were searched, along with citations in eligible articles and reviews and the contents of recent journal issues. Two reviewers independently screened the titles and abstracts using prespecified eligibility criteria. Full-text articles were also independently assessed for eligibility. Eligible studies were those in which running or running-related sports (eg, triathlon or orienteering) were assessed as a risk factor for the onset or progression of knee OA in adults. Relevant outcomes included (1) diagnosis of knee OA, (2) radiographic markers of knee OA, (3) knee joint surgery for OA, (4) knee pain, and (5) knee-associated disability. Risk of bias was judged by use of the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed with case-control studies investigating arthroplasty. After de-duplication, the search returned 1322 records. Of these, 153 full-text articles were assessed; 25 were eligible, describing 15 studies: 11 cohort (6 retrospective) and 4 case-control studies. Findings of studies with a diagnostic OA outcome were mixed. Some radiographic differences were observed in runners, but only at baseline within some subgroups. Meta-analysis suggested a protective effect of running against surgery due to OA: pooled odds ratio 0.46 (95% CI, 0.30-0.71). The I 2 was 0% (95% CI, 0%-73%). Evidence relating to symptomatic outcomes was sparse and inconclusive. With this

New competition hits the U.S. electric industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunter, M.

1993-01-01

Three case studies of competition in the United States electric industry are described which illustrate some of the most striking characteristics of the new competitive situation: utilities foraging in other service areas for long-term customers, customers playing one service-area's pricing against another to obtain better terms, and new generating entities being created with the option of seeking mandated transmission access. The trends illustrated by these studies indicate a move away from a regulated monopoly setting toward a market in which the price of bulk electricity is driven down toward the long-run marginal cost of the service. In New England, non-utility generation in 1992 accounted for 17% of electricity sales, up from essentially zero in 1980. Although increasing competition among electric utilities could lower electric power prices and improve industrial competitiveness, there are several concerns which may signify unpleasant outcomes for electric utilities. These concerns include inefficient investment, in which local utility grids are bypassed in favor of other generating units whose competitive advantage may be the result of arbitrary cost-shifting; the exit of large power users placing more of a fixed-cost burden on the remaining customers of a utility, resulting in a vicious spiral of more defections; and insecurities in purchasing power from a new supplier who may not be subject to the same legal obligations as a local utility. Recommendations are made for accommodating more competition without causing adverse effects, including proper pricing of transmission, helping utilities compete on generation, and avoiding non-electric mandates for utilities. 9 refs

The Relationship between the Generation of Electricity from Renewable Resources and Unemployment: An Empirical Study on the Egyptian Economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aliaa Nabil Khodeir

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Currently, there is a global trend towards the use of renewable energy resources. This is due to their benefits in terms of economic diversification, job creation, and sustainable development. Given the suffering of the Egyptian economy from the chronic unemployment problem, this paper has adopted the effect of electricity generation from renewable resources on unemployment. It tests the hypothesis which implies an inverse relationship between renewable electricity generation and unemployment rate in Egypt. By using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL approach to identify the effects in the short and long run during the period (1989-2013, it has been found that the hypothesis was achieved in the long run only. This is due to the fact that renewable energy projects in their establishment stages focus on capital intensity more than labour intensity, but with time both direct and indirect employment effects start to emerge. The econometric results agree in the presence of a significant negative impact of both economic growth and investments on the unemployment rate.

The value of short-term pain relief in predicting the long-term outcome of 'indirect' cervical epidural steroid injections.

Science.gov (United States)

Joswig, Holger; Neff, Armin; Ruppert, Christina; Hildebrandt, Gerhard; Stienen, Martin Nikolaus

2018-05-01

The predictive value of short-term arm pain relief after 'indirect' cervical epidural steroid injection (ESI) for the 1-month treatment response has been previously demonstrated. It remained to be answered whether the long-term response could be estimated by the early post-interventional pain course as well. Prospective observational study, following a cohort of n = 45 patients for a period of 24 months after 'indirect' ESI for radiculopathy secondary to a single-level cervical disk herniation (CDH). Arm and neck pain on the visual analog scale (VAS), health-related quality of life with the Short Form-12 (SF-12), and functional outcome with the Neck Pain and Disability (NPAD) Scale were assessed. Any additional invasive treatment after a single injection (second injection or surgery) defined treatment outcome as 'non-response'. At 24 months, n = 30 (66.7%) patients were responders and n = 15 (33.3%) were non-responders. Non-responders exited the follow-up at 1 month (n = 10), at 3 months (n = 4), and at 6 months (n = 1). No patients were injected again or operated on between the 6- and 24-month follow-up. Patients with favorable treatment response at 24 months had significantly lower VAS arm pain (p  50% short term pain reduction was not a reliable predictor of the 24-month responder status. SF-12 and NPAD scores were better among treatment responders in the long term. Patients who require a second injection or surgery after 'indirect' cervical ESI for a symptomatic CDH do so within the first 6 months. Short-term pain relief cannot reliably predict the long-term outcome.

Analysis of Biomechanical Factors in Bend Running

OpenAIRE

Bing Zhang; Xinping You; Feng Li

2013-01-01

Sprint running is the demonstration of comprehensive abilities of technology and tactics, under various conditions. However, whether it is just to allocate the tracks for short-distance athletes from different racetracks has been the hot topic. This study analyzes its forces, differences in different tracks and winding influences, in the aspects of sport biomechanics. The results indicate, many disadvantages exist in inner tracks, middle tracks are the best and outer ones are inferior to midd...

Comparison of Patient-Reported Outcome from Neck-Preserving, Short-Stem Arthroplasty and Resurfacing Arthroplasty in Younger Osteoarthritis Patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)