Short Term Prediction of PM10 Concentrations Using Seasonal Time Series Analysis

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Hamid Hazrul Abdul

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Air pollution modelling is one of an important tool that usually used to make short term and long term prediction. Since air pollution gives a big impact especially to human health, prediction of air pollutants concentration is needed to help the local authorities to give an early warning to people who are in risk of acute and chronic health effects from air pollution. Finding the best time series model would allow prediction to be made accurately. This research was carried out to find the best time series model to predict the PM10 concentrations in Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia. By considering two seasons which is wet season (north east monsoon and dry season (south west monsoon, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model were used to find the most suitable model to predict the PM10 concentrations in Nilai, Negeri Sembilan by using three error measures. Based on AIC statistics, results show that ARIMA (1, 1, 1 × (1, 0, 012 is the most suitable model to predict PM10 concentrations in Nilai, Negeri Sembilan.

Latitudinal Patterns in European Seagrass Carbon Reserves: Influence of Seasonal Fluctuations versus Short-Term Stress and Disturbance Events

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Laura M. Soissons

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Seagrass meadows form highly productive and valuable ecosystems in the marine environment. Throughout the year, seagrass meadows are exposed to abiotic and biotic variations linked to (i seasonal fluctuations, (ii short-term stress events such as, e.g., local nutrient enrichment, and (iii small-scale disturbances such as, e.g., biomass removal by grazing. We hypothesized that short-term stress events and small-scale disturbances may affect seagrass chance for survival in temperate latitudes. To test this hypothesis we focused on seagrass carbon reserves in the form of starch stored seasonally in rhizomes, as these have been defined as a good indicator for winter survival. Twelve Zostera noltei meadows were monitored along a latitudinal gradient in Western Europe to firstly assess the seasonal change of their rhizomal starch content. Secondly, we tested the effects of nutrient enrichment and/or biomass removal on the corresponding starch content by using a short-term manipulative field experiment at a single latitude in the Netherlands. At the end of the growing season, we observed a weak but significant linear increase of starch content along the latitudinal gradient from south to north. This agrees with the contention that such reserves are essential for regrowth after winter, which is more severe in the north. In addition, we also observed a weak but significant positive relationship between starch content at the beginning of the growing season and past winter temperatures. This implies a lower regrowth potential after severe winters, due to diminished starch content at the beginning of the growing season. Short-term stress and disturbances may intensify these patterns, because our manipulative experiments show that when nutrient enrichment and biomass loss co-occurred at the end of the growing season, Z. noltei starch content declined. In temperate zones, the capacity of seagrasses to accumulate carbon reserves is expected to determine carbon

Latitudinal Patterns in European Seagrass Carbon Reserves: Influence of Seasonal Fluctuations versus Short-Term Stress and Disturbance Events

Science.gov (United States)

Soissons, Laura M.; Haanstra, Eeke P.; van Katwijk, Marieke M.; Asmus, Ragnhild; Auby, Isabelle; Barillé, Laurent; Brun, Fernando G.; Cardoso, Patricia G.; Desroy, Nicolas; Fournier, Jerome; Ganthy, Florian; Garmendia, Joxe-Mikel; Godet, Laurent; Grilo, Tiago F.; Kadel, Petra; Ondiviela, Barbara; Peralta, Gloria; Puente, Araceli; Recio, Maria; Rigouin, Loic; Valle, Mireia; Herman, Peter M. J.; Bouma, Tjeerd J.

2018-01-01

Seagrass meadows form highly productive and valuable ecosystems in the marine environment. Throughout the year, seagrass meadows are exposed to abiotic and biotic variations linked to (i) seasonal fluctuations, (ii) short-term stress events such as, e.g., local nutrient enrichment, and (iii) small-scale disturbances such as, e.g., biomass removal by grazing. We hypothesized that short-term stress events and small-scale disturbances may affect seagrass chance for survival in temperate latitudes. To test this hypothesis we focused on seagrass carbon reserves in the form of starch stored seasonally in rhizomes, as these have been defined as a good indicator for winter survival. Twelve Zostera noltei meadows were monitored along a latitudinal gradient in Western Europe to firstly assess the seasonal change of their rhizomal starch content. Secondly, we tested the effects of nutrient enrichment and/or biomass removal on the corresponding starch content by using a short-term manipulative field experiment at a single latitude in the Netherlands. At the end of the growing season, we observed a weak but significant linear increase of starch content along the latitudinal gradient from south to north. This agrees with the contention that such reserves are essential for regrowth after winter, which is more severe in the north. In addition, we also observed a weak but significant positive relationship between starch content at the beginning of the growing season and past winter temperatures. This implies a lower regrowth potential after severe winters, due to diminished starch content at the beginning of the growing season. Short-term stress and disturbances may intensify these patterns, because our manipulative experiments show that when nutrient enrichment and biomass loss co-occurred at the end of the growing season, Z. noltei starch content declined. In temperate zones, the capacity of seagrasses to accumulate carbon reserves is expected to determine carbon-based regrowth

[Seasonal variations in estrus behavior and ovulatory activity in Chios and Serres ewes in Greece].

Science.gov (United States)

Avdi, M; Driancourt, M A; Chemineau, P

1993-01-01

Sheep are seasonal breeders, but a lower seasonality has been reported for sheep breeds from the Mediterranean countries enabling spring matings. To further substantiate this, the present study compared seasonal variation in oestrus behaviour and ovulation in two Greek breeds (Chios and Serres) maintained in the same environment. In 27 adult ewes of each breed, oestrus behaviour, the occurrence of ovulation and ovulation rate were monitored during 2 successive years by daily inspection by rams, weekly progesterone assay in circulating blood plasma and monthly ovarian laparoscopy. The periods of anoestrus (109 +/- 8 (wk) vs 178 +/- 5 d) and anovulation (63 +/- 8 vs 149 +/- 6 d) were significantly shorter (P duration of oestrus was also longer in Chios ewes (1.8 +/- 0.05 vs 1.5 +/- 0.06 d; P = 0.002). There were significant correlations between the duration of anovulatory periods of the 2 successive years in Chios (r = 0.43) but not Serres ewes. Ovulation rate was positively related to the onset of the sexual season in Serres but not in Chios ewes. The present data suggest that: i) the efficiency of Serres but not in Chios ewes. The present data suggest that: i) the efficiency of spring mating in these breeds is suboptimal since it is a period when the percentage of ewes exhibiting oestrus and ovulation as well as ovulation rate are limited, ii) owing to the large variation in seasonality within Chios ewes and to the good between year correlation in features of seasonality, selection against seasonality in Chios ewes could be worthwhile.

Short-term progestagen treatment in ewes during the breeding season

OpenAIRE

Almeida, José Carlos; Simões, João; Valentim, Ramiro; Mascarenhas, R.; Fontes, Paulo; Azevedo, Jorge

2006-01-01

To characterize the efficiency of oestrus synchronization with short-term progestagen treatment (stFGA), 20 Ile de France (IF) and 19 Churra da Terra Quente (CTQ) ewes were used during the mid-breeding season. At day 0 (D0), a 40 mg FGA sponge was inserted in all animals and 120 µg cloprostenol was injected. Five days later (D5), all sponges were removed and ewes were divided into two groups: group A (10 IF and 10 CTQ), treated with eCG (250 UI) at sponge withdrawal and group II (10 IF and 9 ...

Short dry spells in the wet season increase mortality of tropical pioneer seedlings.

Science.gov (United States)

Engelbrecht, Bettina M J; Dalling, James W; Pearson, Timothy R H; Wolf, Robert L; Gálvez, David A; Koehler, Tobias; Tyree, Melvin T; Kursar, Thomas A

2006-06-01

Variation in plant species performance in response to water availability offers a potential axis for temporal and spatial habitat partitioning and may therefore affect community composition in tropical forests. We hypothesized that short dry spells during the wet season are a significant source of mortality for the newly emerging seedlings of pioneer species that recruit in treefall gaps in tropical forests. An analysis of a 49-year rainfall record for three forests across a rainfall gradient in central Panama confirmed that dry spells of > or = 10 days during the wet season occur on average once a year in a deciduous forest, and once every other year in a semi-deciduous moist and an evergreen wet forest. The effect of wet season dry spells on the recruitment of pioneers was investigated by comparing seedling survival in rain-protected dry plots and irrigated control plots in four large artificially created treefall gaps in a semi-deciduous tropical forest. In rain-protected plots surface soil layers dried rapidly, leading to a strong gradient in water potential within the upper 10 cm of soil. Seedling survival for six pioneer species was significantly lower in rain-protected than in irrigated control plots after only 4 days. The strength of the irrigation effect differed among species, and first became apparent 3-10 days after treatments started. Root allocation patterns were significantly, or marginally significantly, different between species and between two groups of larger and smaller seeded species. However, they were not correlated with seedling drought sensitivity, suggesting allocation is not a key trait for drought sensitivity in pioneer seedlings. Our data provide strong evidence that short dry spells in the wet season differentially affect seedling survivorship of pioneer species, and may therefore have important implications to seedling demography and community dynamics.

Comparative study of holt-winters triples exponential smoothing and seasonal Arima: Forecasting short term seasonal car sales in South Africa

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Katleho Daniel Makatjane

2016-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper, both Seasonal ARIMA and Holt-Winters models are developed to predict the monthly car sales in South Africa using data for the period of January 1994 to December 2013. The purpose of this study is to choose an optimal model suited for the sector. The three error metrics; mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error and root mean square error were used in making such a choice. Upon realizing that the three forecast errors could not provide concrete basis to make conclusion, the power test was calculated for each model proving Holt-Winters to having about 0.3% more predictive power. Empirical results also indicate that Holt-Winters model produced more precise short-term seasonal forecasts. The findings also revealed a structural break in April 2009, implying that the car industry was significantly affected by the 2008 and 2009 US financial crisis

Short-term community dynamics in seasonal and hyperseasonal cerrados

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MV. Cianciaruso

Full Text Available In South America, the largest seasonal savanna region is the Brazilian cerrado. Our aim was to study temporal changes in some community descriptors, such as floristic composition, richness, species density, plant density, and cylindrical volume, in a seasonal cerrado, comparing it to a nearby hyperseasonal cerrado. In four different seasons, we placed randomly ten 1 m² quadrats in each vegetation form and sampled all the vascular plants. Seasonal changes in floristic composition, species density, and plant density were less pronounced in the seasonal than in the hyperseasonal cerrado. Floristic similarity between the vegetation forms was lower when the hyperseasonal cerrado was waterlogged. Richness and species density were higher in the seasonal cerrado, which reached its biomass peak at mid rainy season. The hyperseasonal cerrado, in turn, reached its biomass peak at early rainy season and, despite the waterlogging, maintained it until late rainy season. In the hyperseasonal cerrado, waterlogging acts as an environmental filter restricting the number of cerrado species able to withstand it. The seasonal cerrado community was more stable than the hyperseasonal one. Our results corroborated the idea that changes in the environmental filters will affect floristic composition and community structure in savannas.

Exploring Niches for Short-Season Grain Legumes in Semi-Arid Eastern Kenya - Coping with the Impacts of Climate Variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Sennhenn, Anne; Njarui, Donald M G; Maass, Brigitte L; Whitbread, Anthony M

2017-01-01

Climate variability is the major risk to agricultural production in semi-arid agroecosystems and the key challenge to sustain farm livelihoods for the 500 million people who inhabit these areas worldwide. Short-season grain legumes have great potential to address this challenge and help to design more resilient and productive farming systems. However, grain legumes display a great diversity and differ widely in growth, development, and resource use efficiency. Three contrasting short season grain legumes common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.), cowpea ( Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.] and lablab [ Lablab purpureus (L.) Sweet] were selected to assess their agricultural potential with respect to climate variability and change along the Machakos-Makueni transect in semi-arid Eastern Kenya. This was undertaken using measured data [a water response trial conducted during 2012/13 and 2013/14 in Machakos, Kenya] and simulated data using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM). The APSIM crop model was calibrated and validated to simulate growth and development of short-season grain legumes in semi-arid environments. Water use efficiency (WUE) was used as indicator to quantify the production potential. The major traits of adaptation include early flowering and pod and seed set before the onset of terminal drought. Early phenology together with adapted canopy architecture allowed more optimal water use and greater partitioning of dry matter into seed (higher harvest index). While common bean followed a comparatively conservative strategy of minimizing water loss through crop transpiration, the very short development time and compact growth habit limited grain yield to rarely exceed 1,000 kg ha -1 . An advantage of this strategy was relatively stable yields independent of in-crop rainfall or season length across the Machakos-Makueni transect. The growth habit of cowpea in contrast minimized water loss through soil evaporation with rapid ground cover and dry matter

Short-term forecasting of non-OPEC supply: a test of seasonality and seasonal decomposition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jazayeri, S.M.R.T.; Yahyai, A.

2002-01-01

The purpose of this study is, first to find out, based on historical data, whether quarterly averages of non-OPEC supply follow a seasonal pattern. If that is mathematically established, then, secondly, it is attempted to estimate the best seasonal factors to decompose the estimated yearly average into seasonal averages. This study applies the Fourier analysis to quarterly supply series to test for seasonality, and provides estimates of seasonal factors for the year 2001 by applying the so-called X-11 decomposition method to the annual estimate. A set of historical data, consisting of quarterly supply averages of individual countries, regional subtotals and aggregate non-OPEC for the period 1971-2000, forms the basis of the analysis. Through the application of the Fourier analysis and X-11 decomposition method, it is demonstrated that quarterly non-OPEC supply, be it by an individual major producer or regional sub-totals, clearly follows a seasonal pattern. This is a very useful conclusion for the market analyst involved with forecasting the quarterly supply. (author)

Control of the reproductive performance of Chios sheep and Damascus goats: Studies using hormone radioimmuoassays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mavrogenis, A.P.

1988-01-01

The effects of environment on conception rate and litter size, and of the goat status and age in the preceding season on the time of oestrus appearance were studied. Furthermore, the effect of season of kidding and daily milk production at the occurrence of oestrus on 'days open' was examined. Environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, age of goat or management and feeding could not account for the variation in reproductive behaviour. Ovarian activity monitored for 53 weeks showed that: there was a short period of anoestrus from late March to early July; conventional methods of heat detection are inadequate; there was an irregular heat wave in July which was not followed by repeated cycles; and the regular breeding season for the Damascus goat is in autumn (September to December) and the average length of the cycle is 21 days. The duration of oestrus was studied in parous and non-parous goats following oestrus synchronization with progesterone analogue and PMSG. Overt oestrus appeared 31.1 h (range 24-48 h) after the removal of sponges, and continued for 36-44 h. Its duration was somewhat longer in parous compared to non-parous goats. Serum progesterone levels correlated with oestrus detection by vasectomized males. Milk and blood samples were collected at regular intervals starting three days post-partum to study post-partum anoestrus in Chios sheep. Progesterone assays, carried out using skimmed milk and blood serum, showed that first ovulation occurred approximately within 30 days post-partum. Progesterone levels were much higher in serum than in skimmed milk. It is suggested that Chios sheep have ovulations during the suckling period although overt oestrus could not always be detected by vasectomized males. 50 refs, 8 figs, 7 tabs

Exploring Niches for Short-Season Grain Legumes in Semi-Arid Eastern Kenya — Coping with the Impacts of Climate Variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne Sennhenn

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Climate variability is the major risk to agricultural production in semi-arid agroecosystems and the key challenge to sustain farm livelihoods for the 500 million people who inhabit these areas worldwide. Short-season grain legumes have great potential to address this challenge and help to design more resilient and productive farming systems. However, grain legumes display a great diversity and differ widely in growth, development, and resource use efficiency. Three contrasting short season grain legumes common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L., cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L. Walp.] and lablab [Lablab purpureus (L. Sweet] were selected to assess their agricultural potential with respect to climate variability and change along the Machakos-Makueni transect in semi-arid Eastern Kenya. This was undertaken using measured data [a water response trial conducted during 2012/13 and 2013/14 in Machakos, Kenya] and simulated data using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM. The APSIM crop model was calibrated and validated to simulate growth and development of short-season grain legumes in semi-arid environments. Water use efficiency (WUE was used as indicator to quantify the production potential. The major traits of adaptation include early flowering and pod and seed set before the onset of terminal drought. Early phenology together with adapted canopy architecture allowed more optimal water use and greater partitioning of dry matter into seed (higher harvest index. While common bean followed a comparatively conservative strategy of minimizing water loss through crop transpiration, the very short development time and compact growth habit limited grain yield to rarely exceed 1,000 kg ha−1. An advantage of this strategy was relatively stable yields independent of in-crop rainfall or season length across the Machakos-Makueni transect. The growth habit of cowpea in contrast minimized water loss through soil evaporation with rapid ground cover and

Exploring Niches for Short-Season Grain Legumes in Semi-Arid Eastern Kenya — Coping with the Impacts of Climate Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Sennhenn, Anne; Njarui, Donald M. G.; Maass, Brigitte L.; Whitbread, Anthony M.

2017-01-01

Climate variability is the major risk to agricultural production in semi-arid agroecosystems and the key challenge to sustain farm livelihoods for the 500 million people who inhabit these areas worldwide. Short-season grain legumes have great potential to address this challenge and help to design more resilient and productive farming systems. However, grain legumes display a great diversity and differ widely in growth, development, and resource use efficiency. Three contrasting short season grain legumes common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.), cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.] and lablab [Lablab purpureus (L.) Sweet] were selected to assess their agricultural potential with respect to climate variability and change along the Machakos-Makueni transect in semi-arid Eastern Kenya. This was undertaken using measured data [a water response trial conducted during 2012/13 and 2013/14 in Machakos, Kenya] and simulated data using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM). The APSIM crop model was calibrated and validated to simulate growth and development of short-season grain legumes in semi-arid environments. Water use efficiency (WUE) was used as indicator to quantify the production potential. The major traits of adaptation include early flowering and pod and seed set before the onset of terminal drought. Early phenology together with adapted canopy architecture allowed more optimal water use and greater partitioning of dry matter into seed (higher harvest index). While common bean followed a comparatively conservative strategy of minimizing water loss through crop transpiration, the very short development time and compact growth habit limited grain yield to rarely exceed 1,000 kg ha−1. An advantage of this strategy was relatively stable yields independent of in-crop rainfall or season length across the Machakos-Makueni transect. The growth habit of cowpea in contrast minimized water loss through soil evaporation with rapid ground cover and dry matter

Mapping rice-fallow cropland areas for short-season grain legumes intensification in South Asia using MODIS 250 m time-series data

Science.gov (United States)

Gumma, Murali Krishna; Thenkabail, Prasad S.; Teluguntla, Pardhasaradhi G.; Rao, Mahesh N.; Mohammed, Irshad A.; Whitbread, Anthony M.

2016-01-01

The goal of this study was to map rainfed and irrigated rice-fallow cropland areas across South Asia, using MODIS 250 m time-series data and identify where the farming system may be intensified by the inclusion of a short-season crop during the fallow period. Rice-fallow cropland areas are those areas where rice is grown during the kharif growing season (June–October), followed by a fallow during the rabi season (November–February). These cropland areas are not suitable for growing rabi-season rice due to their high water needs, but are suitable for a short -season (≤3 months), low water-consuming grain legumes such as chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.), black gram, green gram, and lentils. Intensification (double-cropping) in this manner can improve smallholder farmer’s incomes and soil health via rich nitrogen-fixation legume crops as well as address food security challenges of ballooning populations without having to expand croplands. Several grain legumes, primarily chickpea, are increasingly grown across Asia as a source of income for smallholder farmers and at the same time providing rich and cheap source of protein that can improve the nutritional quality of diets in the region. The suitability of rainfed and irrigated rice-fallow croplands for grain legume cultivation across South Asia were defined by these identifiers: (a) rice crop is grown during the primary (kharif) crop growing season or during the north-west monsoon season (June–October); (b) same croplands are left fallow during the second (rabi) season or during the south-east monsoon season (November–February); and (c) ability to support low water-consuming, short-growing season (≤3 months) grain legumes (chickpea, black gram, green gram, and lentils) during rabi season. Existing irrigated or rainfed crops such as rice or wheat that were grown during kharif were not considered suitable for growing during the rabi season, because the moisture/water demand of these crops is too high. The

Seasonal prolactin secretion and its role in seasonal reproduction: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Curlewis, J D

1992-01-01

The majority of seasonally breeding mammals show a seasonal pattern of prolactin secretion with peak concentrations in spring or summer and a nadir in autumn or winter. Photoperiod influences prolactin secretion via its effects on the secretion of the pineal hormone melatonin. Preliminary evidence suggests that the effects of melatonin on both prolactin and gonadotrophin secretion are via a common target area, possibly within the anterior hypothalamus, and that differences in response to photoperiod may be due to differences in the processing and/or interpretation of the melatonin signal. In contrast to seasonal gonadotrophin secretion, the seasonal changes in prolactin are not due to changes in the sensitivity of a feedback loop and so must be due to direct effects on the hypothalamic pathways that control prolactin secretion. Little else can be said with confidence about the neuroendocrine mechanisms that lead to the seasonal changes in prolactin secretion. Dopamine and noradrenaline turnover in the arcuate nucleus and median eminence decrease under short daylength. If catecholamine turnover in these structures is positively correlated with catecholamine concentrations in the long or short hypophysial portal vessels, it is unlikely that the decrease in prolactin concentration in winter is due to the effects of increased concentrations of dopamine or noradrenaline in the portal vessels. There is, however, evidence for increased pituitary sensitivity to dopamine under short daylength, so increased dopamine concentrations may not be required for suppression of prolactin secretion at this time. In addition to the diminished secretion of prolactin under short daylength, rate of prolactin synthesis and pituitary content of prolactin also decline although the mechanisms that regulate these changes are poorly understood. Although all seasonal breeders show a seasonal change in prolactin secretion, there are continuously breeding species in which prolactin secretion is

Short-term to seasonal variability in factors driving primary productivity in a shallow estuary: Implications for modeling production

Science.gov (United States)

Canion, Andy; MacIntyre, Hugh L.; Phipps, Scott

2013-10-01

The inputs of primary productivity models may be highly variable on short timescales (hourly to daily) in turbid estuaries, but modeling of productivity in these environments is often implemented with data collected over longer timescales. Daily, seasonal, and spatial variability in primary productivity model parameters: chlorophyll a concentration (Chla), the downwelling light attenuation coefficient (kd), and photosynthesis-irradiance response parameters (Pmchl, αChl) were characterized in Weeks Bay, a nitrogen-impacted shallow estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Variability in primary productivity model parameters in response to environmental forcing, nutrients, and microalgal taxonomic marker pigments were analysed in monthly and short-term datasets. Microalgal biomass (as Chla) was strongly related to total phosphorus concentration on seasonal scales. Hourly data support wind-driven resuspension as a major source of short-term variability in Chla and light attenuation (kd). The empirical relationship between areal primary productivity and a combined variable of biomass and light attenuation showed that variability in the photosynthesis-irradiance response contributed little to the overall variability in primary productivity, and Chla alone could account for 53-86% of the variability in primary productivity. Efforts to model productivity in similar shallow systems with highly variable microalgal biomass may benefit the most by investing resources in improving spatial and temporal resolution of chlorophyll a measurements before increasing the complexity of models used in productivity modeling.

Seasonal variations in sexual activity and endocrine changes associated with follicular maturation and development in the Peulh ewe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yenikoye, A.

1988-01-01

Annual variations in sexual activity (oestrus and ovulation) and in the endocrine balances which govern follicular maturation and ovulation (the ovarian hormones progesterone and oestradiol-17β, and the pituitary hormones FSH, LH and PRL) were studied in the Peulh ewes of Niger. It was found that two types of disturbances in ovarian function limited the fertility of ewes in semi-arid environment: (a) persistent corpora lutea which occurred in 14% of animals and affected 2.2% of oestrous cycles in the course of the year. Their appearance coincided with increasing humidity (in June and July) or daily temperature (December to April); and (b) seasonal anoestrus, observed in 67% of animals from December to April, and coinciding with maximum daily temperatures. These ovarian anomalies were associated with a weak endogenous rhythm of LH secretion without any change in feedback from the ovarian steroids progesterone and oestradiol-17β on the hypothalamic-pituitary axis. A study of seasonal variations in levels of the gonadotrophic hormones indicated that there may be a weaker than usual dependence between the ovary and the pituitary during periods of anomalous sexual activity in Peulh ewes. The results presented suggest that both types of ovarian dysfunction observed in certain Peulh ewes may reflect poorer adaptation to the semi-arid climate. (author). 54 refs, 8 figs, 3 tabs

Phenology and carbon dioxide source/sink strength of a subalpine grassland in response to an exceptionally short snow season

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galvagno, M; Cremonese, E; Filippa, G; Morra di Cella, U; Wohlfahrt, G; Rossini, M; Colombo, R; Julitta, T; Manca, G; Siniscalco, C; Migliavacca, M

2013-01-01

Changes in snow cover depth and duration predicted by climate change scenarios are expected to strongly affect high-altitude ecosystem processes. This study investigates the effect of an exceptionally short snow season on the phenology and carbon dioxide source/sink strength of a subalpine grassland. An earlier snowmelt of more than one month caused a considerable advancement (40 days) of the beginning of the carbon uptake period (CUP) and, together with a delayed establishment of the snow season in autumn, contributed to a two-month longer CUP. The combined effect of the shorter snow season and the extended CUP led to an increase of about 100% in annual carbon net uptake. Nevertheless, the unusual environmental conditions imposed by the early snowmelt led to changes in canopy structure and functioning, with a reduction of the carbon sequestration rate during the snow-free period. (letter)

Genetic variability of the length of postpartum anoestrus in Charolais cows and its relationship with age at puberty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ménissier François

2000-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Fertility records (n = 1 802 were collected from 615 Charolais primiparous and multiparous cows managed in an experimental herd over an 11-year period. The objectives of the study were to describe the genetic variability of the re-establishment of postpartum reproductive activity and the relationship with body weight (BW and body condition score (BCS at calving and age at puberty. The length of postpartum anoestrus was estimated based on weekly blood progesterone assays and on twice daily detection of oestrus behaviour. The first oestrus behaviour was observed 69 days (± 25 days s.d. post-calving and the first positive progesterone measurement (≥ 1 ng mL-1 was observed at 66 days (± 22 days s.d. for the group of easy-calving multiparous suckling cows. Estimates of heritability and repeatability were h2 = 0.12 and r = 0.38 respectively, for the interval from calving to first oestrus (ICO. Corresponding values were h2 = 0.35 and r = 0.60 for the interval from calving to the first positive progesterone test (ICP. The genetic correlation between both criteria was high (rg = 0.98. The genetic relationships between postpartum intervals and BW and BCS of the female at calving were negative: the genetic aptitude to be heavier at calving and to have high body reserves was related to shorter postpartum intervals. A favourable genetic correlation between age at puberty and postpartum intervals was found (rg between 0.45 and 0.70. The heifers which were genetically younger at puberty also had shorter postpartum intervals.

Seasonal analysis of the short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in Northeast Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Satbyul Estella; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kan, Haidong; Lim, Youn-Hee; Lee, Hyewon; Kim, Clara Tammy; Yi, Seung-Muk; Kim, Ho

2017-01-15

The constituents and concentrations of pollutants, individual exposures, and biologic responses to air pollution may vary by season and meteorological conditions. However, evidence regarding seasonality of the acute effects of air pollution on mortality is limited and inconsistent. Herein, we examined seasonal patterns in the short-term associations of particulate matter (PM) smaller than 10μm (PM 10 ) with daily mortality in 29 cities of three northeast Asian countries. Stratified time-series models were used to determine whether season altered the effect of PM 10 on mortality. This effect was first quantified within each season and at each location using a time-series model, after which city-specific estimates were pooled using a hierarchical Bayesian model. In all data sets, 3,675,348 non-accidental deaths were registered from 1993 to 2009. In Japan, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was significantly associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.03%, 0.8%) in spring and 0.42% (0.02%, 0.82%) in fall. In South Korea, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was significantly associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.51% (0.01%, 1.01%) in summer and 0.45% (0.03%, 0.87%) in fall, in cardiovascular disease mortality of 0.96% (0.29%, 1.63%) in fall, and in respiratory disease mortality of 1.57% (0.40%, 2.75%) in fall. In China, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.33% (0.01%, 0.66%) in summer and 0.41% (0.09%, 0.73%) in winter, in cardiovascular disease mortality of 0.41% (0.08%, 0.74%) in spring and 0.33% (0.02%, 0.64%) in winter, and in respiratory diseases mortality of 0.78% (0.27%, 1.30%) in winter. Our analyses suggest that the acute effect of particulate air pollution could vary seasonally and geographically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical properties of the seasonal fractionally integrated ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We investigate the properties of this new model providing stationary conditions, some explicit form of the autocovariance function and the spectral density. We also establish the asymptotic behaviour of the spectral density function near the seasonal frequencies. Keywords: Seasonality; Spatial short memory; Seasonal long ...

Energy balance and evaporation of a short-rotation willow forest. Variation with season and stand development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iritz, Z.

1996-10-01

Energy balance and evaporation of a short-rotation willow (Salix viminalis L.) forest was studied in relation to season and stand development. The developmental stage of the forest stand considerably influenced how the energy, received as net radiation, was partitioned between the connective fluxes and the storage components. The main part of the available energy was utilised for evaporation during most of the season. Only at the beginning of the season did the willow forest supply heat to the atmosphere. Later in the season, energy was taken from air and utilised for evaporation, which resulted in negative sensible heat fluxes. Soil heat storage was also a significant term in the energy balance and also strongly depended on canopy development. Changes in energy partitioning relative to leaf area indices indicated the existence of a threshold value for leaf area index of the developing canopy. The analysis suggested that the canopy of the willow forest could be considered as closed at a leaf area index of 2. It was further found that evaporation from well-irrigated willow forest occurred also during night-time, particularly in windy and dry weather conditions. The sources of nocturnal evaporation were both the canopy, i.e. indicating non-closed stomata, and the soil surface. Partitioning of the total evaporation into components was investigated using a physically-based model with a two-layer aboveground representation and a two-layer soil module. The model estimates evaporation with respect to developmental stage of the willow stand and also takes into account the interaction between the fluxes from the canopy and the soil surface. Good performance of the model indicated that, after further testing in drier conditions, it could be used as a tool for analysing the prerequisites for energy-forest establishment, and practical management of energy forest stands. 37 refs, 9 figs

Daily and seasonal variation of short-lived radon decay product concentrations in ground-level air at Munich-Neuherberg - a long-term study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, R.

2001-09-01

Daily and seasonal variation of the equilibrium equivalent radon concentration (EEC Rn-222 ) and of the concentration of the short-lived radon decay product 214 Pb in ground-level air was investigated at Munich-Neuherberg from 1982 to 2000, and from 1989 to 2000, respectively. For this, the EEC was measured continuously with an alpha/beta aerosol monitor at 2.5 m above ground, and 214 Pb was determined by online gamma spectrometry at about 12 m above ground. The resulting time series were analysed statistically. For the respective periods, the measurements yielded a long-term average concentration of 7.8 Bq m -3 (geometric mean: 6.1 Bq m -3 ) for the EEC, and 6.0 Bq m -3 (geom. mean: 5.0 Bq m -3 ) for 214 Pb. In these periods, daily averages ranged from 0.6 to 49 Bq m -3 (EEC), and from 0.6 to 43 Bq m -3 ( 214 Pb). Monthly mean concentrations varied between 3.0 Bq m -3 in March 1988 and 20 Bq m -3 in October 1985 (EEC), and from 3.4 Bq m -3 in April 1992 to 11 Bq m -3 in October 1995 ( 214 Pb), respectively. The annual average concentrations were from 5.9 Bq m -3 in 1999 to 10.6 Bq m -3 in 1985 (EEC), and from 5.3 Bq m -3 in 1999 to 6.8 Bq m -3 in 1991 ( 214 Pb). From the long-term average equilibrium equivalent radon concentration (EEC), an average annual effective dose of 0.13 mSv due to the short-lived radon progeny outdoors was estimated. The time series showed distinct daily and seasonal variations. The variations from day to day are mainly caused by the actual weather conditions (wind, rain, etc.), i.e. the short-term turbulent conditions. The seasonal pattern is characterised by an autumn to winter maximum and an early summer minimum, and reflects the prevailing turbulent conditions at the respective seasons. As known, at Munich-Neuherberg during autumn and winter months (October/November to February) inversion weather conditions frequently occur, while the other months are characterised by more turbulent conditions. (orig.)

Factors influencing the seasonal patterns of infectious diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Auda Fares

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The recognition of seasonal patterns in infectious disease occurrence dates back at least as far as the hippocratic era, but the mechanisms underlying these fluctuations remain poorly understood. Many classes of mechanistic hypotheses have been proposed to explain seasonality of various directly transmitted diseases, including at least the following; human activity, seasonal variability in human immune system function, seasonal variations in vitamin D levels, seasonality of melatonin, and pathogen infectivity. In this short paper will briefly discuss the role of these factors in the seasonal patterns of infectious diseases.

A trend fixed on firstly and seasonal adjustment model combined with the ε-SVR for short-term forecasting of electricity demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Jianzhou; Zhu Wenjin; Zhang Wenyu; Sun Donghuai

2009-01-01

Short-term electricity demand forecasting has always been an essential instrument in power system planning and operation by which an electric utility plans and dispatches loading so as to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, derived from the accuracy of demand forecasting and the forecasting algorithm used, will determines the economic of the power system operation as well as the stability of the whole society. This paper presents a combined ε-SVR model considering seasonal proportions based on development tendencies from history data. We use one-order moving averages to produce a comparatively smooth data series, taking the averaging period as the interval that can effectively eliminate the seasonal variation. We used the smoothed data series as the training set input for the ε-SVR model and obtained the corresponding forecasting value. Afterward, we accounted for the previously removed seasonal variation. As a case, we forecast northeast electricity demand of China using the new method. We demonstrated that this simple procedure has very satisfactory overall performance by an analysis of variance with relative verification and validation. Significant reductions in forecast errors were achieved.

A trend fixed on firstly and seasonal adjustment model combined with the epsilon-SVR for short-term forecasting of electricity demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang Jianzhou [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Zhu Wenjin, E-mail: crying.1@hotmail.co [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Zhang Wenyu [College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Sun Donghuai [Key Laboratory of Western Chinas Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

2009-11-15

Short-term electricity demand forecasting has always been an essential instrument in power system planning and operation by which an electric utility plans and dispatches loading so as to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, derived from the accuracy of demand forecasting and the forecasting algorithm used, will determines the economic of the power system operation as well as the stability of the whole society. This paper presents a combined epsilon-SVR model considering seasonal proportions based on development tendencies from history data. We use one-order moving averages to produce a comparatively smooth data series, taking the averaging period as the interval that can effectively eliminate the seasonal variation. We used the smoothed data series as the training set input for the epsilon-SVR model and obtained the corresponding forecasting value. Afterward, we accounted for the previously removed seasonal variation. As a case, we forecast northeast electricity demand of China using the new method. We demonstrated that this simple procedure has very satisfactory overall performance by an analysis of variance with relative verification and validation. Significant reductions in forecast errors were achieved.

A trend fixed on firstly and seasonal adjustment model combined with the {epsilon}-SVR for short-term forecasting of electricity demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jianzhou; Zhu, Wenjin [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Zhang, Wenyu [College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Sun, Donghuai [Key Laboratory of Western Chinas Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

2009-11-15

Short-term electricity demand forecasting has always been an essential instrument in power system planning and operation by which an electric utility plans and dispatches loading so as to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, derived from the accuracy of demand forecasting and the forecasting algorithm used, will determines the economic of the power system operation as well as the stability of the whole society. This paper presents a combined {epsilon}-SVR model considering seasonal proportions based on development tendencies from history data. We use one-order moving averages to produce a comparatively smooth data series, taking the averaging period as the interval that can effectively eliminate the seasonal variation. We used the smoothed data series as the training set input for the {epsilon}-SVR model and obtained the corresponding forecasting value. Afterward, we accounted for the previously removed seasonal variation. As a case, we forecast northeast electricity demand of China using the new method. We demonstrated that this simple procedure has very satisfactory overall performance by an analysis of variance with relative verification and validation. Significant reductions in forecast errors were achieved. (author)

Milk progesterone profiles and the effect of the buck during the anoestrous period in goats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Dazhi; Liu Xianyi; Chen Faju; Song Xuehua; Wang Kairong; Liu Xiangmo; Xu Gongyi

1991-01-01

Milk progesterone profiles in Chengdu Mah (CM), Saanen (S) and crossbred (CM x S, F1) goats were determined using radioimmunoassay throughout the period from kidding to the beginning of the next breeding season. Different patterns of progesterone profiles were recorded in these does. When milk progesterone concentrations were elevated above 6 ng/mL for at least 6 days they were regarded as signs of ovarian activity. The frequencies of such rises during anoestrus were 4.0, 1.8 and 2.5 per animal in CM, S and F1 goats respectively. The frequencies of progesterone rise were higher than that of behavioural oestrus in the does. After exposing the does to the buck three times during the anoestrus period, no significant 'male effect' was observed on the milk progesterone level or behavioural oestrus during the first six months after kidding. The male effect on behavioural oestrus became apparent only in the seventh month after kidding, while milk progesterone levels did not change markedly compared with those of the control does. (author). 9 refs, 4 figs

Growth rate of ovulatory follicles during the first ovulatory oestrus (after seasonal anoestrus) and subsequent oestrous period in Irish Draught mares.

Science.gov (United States)

Newcombe, John R; Cuervo-Arango, Juan

2013-03-12

It is believed that during the spring transition, the developing follicle tends to grow more slowly, persist longer and grow to a larger diameter prior to ovulation than at subsequent oestrus periods. A general suspicion, that the first ovulation of the year is less fertile than subsequent ovulations could be explained by a slower growth rate of the ovulatory follicle during transition with the consequent production of a subfertile oocyte. By detailed serial examination of the same group of Irish Draught mares over three winter/spring periods, no significant difference was found in either growth rate or pre-ovulatory diameter when compared with subsequent ovulations. Mean growth rates over the ten days prior to ovulation were 2.20 mm/day (range 1.18 to 3.64) and 2.19 mm/day (range 1.25 to 3.41) for first and subsequent ovulations respectively. Mean maximum pre-ovulatory diameters were 44.7 mm (range 35 to 59) and 43.5 mm (range 31 to 57.5) for first and subsequent ovulations respectively. The impression gained by practitioners that the first follicle develops more slowly during the transition to the first ovulation of the season may be due to less frequent examinations and consequently a failure to observe and record that follicles may grow and then regress during this period. The largest follicle observed a few days previously is not necessarily the same large follicle found at a later examination.

REPRODUCTIVE SEASONALITY OF SHEEP IN MEXICO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaime Arroyo

2011-07-01

Full Text Available In order to discuss and analyze the available information concerning the seasonal breeding behavior of sheep in Mexico, this review was conducted. We analyzed the neuroendocrine basis that modulate the annual reproductive cycle in sheep and then discussed the degree of reproductive seasonality in Creole sheep wool, breeds originating in high latitudes and hair sheep, mainly in Pelibuey ewes. The Creole sheep wool show continuous annual reproductive activity and short seasonal anestrous. The females of northern origin, express seasonal reproductive activity, similar to that observed in individuals geographically located at latitudes above 35º. Pelibuey sheep show variable annual reproductive behavior with reduced anestrus or lack thereof.  It is suggested that the neuroendocrine mechanisms regulating seasonal anestrus in ewes, are active in the sheep of northern origin that live in Mexico, in a manner contrary is not activated in Creole and hair sheep.

Effects of a group-based reproductive management extension programme on key management outcomes affecting reproductive performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Brownlie, Tom S; Morton, John M; Heuer, Cord; McDougall, Scott

2015-02-01

A group-based reproductive management extension programme has been designed to help managers of dairy herds improve herd reproductive performance. The aims of this study were, firstly, to assess effects of participation by key decision makers (KDMs) in a farmer action group programme in 2009 and 2010 on six key management outcomes (KMOs) that affect reproductive performance over 2 years (2009-2010 and 2010-2011), and secondly, to describe KDM intentions to change management behaviour(s) affecting each management outcome after participation in the programme. Seasonal calving dairy herds from four regions of New Zealand were enrolled in the study. Intentions to modify management behaviour were recorded using the formal written action plans developed during the extension programme. KMOs assessed were calving pattern of the herd, pre-calving heifer liveweight, pre-calving and premating body condition score (BCS), oestrus detection, anoestrus cow management and bull management. Participation was associated with improvements in heifer liveweight, more heifers calving in the first 6 weeks of the seasonal calving period, premating BCS and oestrus detection. No significant effects were observed on anoestrus cow management or bull management. KDMs with greater numbers of proposed actions had lower 6 week in-calf rates in the second study year than KDMs who proposed fewer actions. A more effective strategy to ensure more appropriate objectives is proposed. Strategies to help KDMs to implement proposed actions more successfully should be investigated to improve the programme further. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Volatile Transport in Pluto's Super Seasons

Science.gov (United States)

Earle, Alissa M.; Binzel, Richard; Young, Leslie; Stern, S. Alan; Olkin, Catherine B.; Ennico, Kimberly; Moore, Jeffrey M.; Weaver, Harold A.; NASA New Horizons Composition Team, The NASA New Horizons GGI Team

2016-10-01

The data returned from NASA's New Horizons' reconnaissance of the Pluto system shows striking albedo variations from polar to equatorial latitudes as well as sharp boundaries for longitudinal variations. Pluto has a high obliquity (currently around 119 degrees) which varies by more than 23 degrees (between roughly 103 and 127 degrees) over a period of less than 3 million years. These obliquity properties, combined with Pluto's orbital regression in longitude of perihelion (360 degrees over 3.7 million years), create epochs of "Super Seasons" on Pluto. A "Super Season" occurs, for example, when Pluto happens to be pole-on towards the Sun at the same time as perihelion. In such a case, one pole experiences a short, intense summer (relative to its long-term average) followed by a longer than average period of winter darkness. By complement, the other pole experiences a much longer, but less intense summer and short winter season. We explore the relationship between albedo variations and volatile transport for the current epoch as well as historical epochs during which Pluto experienced these "Super Seasons". Our investigation suggests Pluto's orbit creates the potential for runaway albedo variations, particularly in the equatorial region, which would create and support stark longitudinal contrasts like the ones we see between the informally named Tombaugh and Cthulhu Regios.This work was supported by the NASA New Horizons mission.

RFRP neurons - the doorway to understanding seasonal reproduction in mammals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jo Beldring Henningsen

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Seasonal control of reproduction is critical for the perpetuation of species living in temperate zones that display major changes in climatic environment and availability of food resources. In mammals, seasonal cues are mainly provided by the annual change in the 24h light/dark ratio (i.e. photoperiod, which is translated into the nocturnal production of the pineal hormone melatonin. The annual rhythm in this melatonin signal acts as a synchronizer ensuring that breeding occurs when environmental conditions favor survival of the offspring. Although specific mechanisms might vary among seasonal species, the hypothalamic RF (Arg-Phe amide-related peptides (RFRP-1 and -3 are believed to play a critical role in the central control of seasonal reproduction and in all seasonal species investigated, the RFRP system is persistently inhibited in short photoperiod. Central chronic administration of RFRP-3 in short day-adapted male Syrian hamsters fully reactivates the reproductive axis despite photoinhibitory conditions, which highlights the importance of the seasonal changes in RFRP expression for proper regulation of the reproductive axis. The acute effects of RFRP peptides, however, depend on species, photoperiod and recent studies point towards a different role of RFRP in regulating female reproductive activity. In this review we summarize the recent advances made to understand the role and underlying mechanisms of RFRP in the seasonal control of reproduction, primarily focusing on mammalian species.

Kisspeptin and the seasonal control of reproduction in hamsters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simonneaux, Valérie; Ansel, Laura; Revel, Florent G

2008-01-01

-expressing neurons, which were recently shown to be implicated in the regulation of GnRH release. Hamsters are seasonal rodents which are sexually active in long photoperiod and quiescent in short photoperiod. The photoperiodic information is transmitted to the reproductive system by melatonin, a pineal...... hormone whose secretion is adjusted to night length. The photoperiodic variation in circulating melatonin has been shown to synchronize reproductive activity with seasons, but the mechanisms involved in this effect of melatonin were so far unknown. Recently we have observed that Kiss1 mRNA level...... in the arcuate nucleus of the Syrian hamster is lower in short photoperiod, when animals are sexually quiescent. Notably, intracerebroventricular infusion of Kiss1 gene product, kisspeptin, in hamsters kept in short photoperiod is able to override the inhibitory photoperiod and to reactivate sexual activity...

Water policy reform in Australia: lessons from the Victorian seasonal water market

OpenAIRE

Brennan, Donna C.

2006-01-01

The nature of the seasonal water market is examined using a theoretical model and empirical evidence from the Victorian market. Drivers of the seasonal opportunity cost of water include the underlying nature of investment in the industry made in the context of risky entitlement yields; and the timing and nature of information regarding seasonal water availability and rainfall. Seasonal water markets facilitate the reallocation of water availability according to this short-run opportunity cost...

Relationship between short and long term radon measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, T.; Ramirez, D.; Navarrete, M.; Cabrera, L.; Ramirez, A.; Gonzalez, P.

2000-01-01

In this work the radon group of the Faculty of Chemistry at the National University of Mexico presents the results obtained in the establishment of a relation between the short and long term radon measures made with passive electret detectors E-PERM type LLT and HST. The measures were carried out inside single family dwellings (open house condition) located in the southeast of Mexico City (in Xochimilco) during the four seasons of the year 1997. A correlation was established between the short term measures (five days) and those of a long term for every season as well as an annual average, with an equation that relates them. The objective and advantage of this correlation are that with a short term measure it is possible to predict the annual mean radon concentration, that represents a saving of human and economic resources. (author)

Enhancing Seasonal Water Outlooks: Needs and Opportunities in the Critical Runoff Season

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Yocum, H.; Stokes, M.; Miskus, D.

2017-12-01

The runoff season is a critical period for the management of water supply in the western U.S., where in many places over 70% of the annual runoff occurs in the snowmelt period. Managing not only the volume, but the intra-seasonal timing of the runoff is important for optimizing storage, as well as achieving other goals such as mitigating flood risk, and providing peak flows for riparian habitat management, for example, for endangered species. Western river forecast centers produce volume forecasts for western reservoirs that are key input into many water supply decisions, and also short term river forecasts out to 10 days. The early volume forecasts each year typically begin in December, and are updated throughout the winter and into the runoff season (April-July for many areas, but varies). This presentation will discuss opportunities for enhancing this existing suite of RFC water outlooks, including the needs for and potential use for "intraseasonal" products beyond those provided by the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system and the volume forecasts. While precipitation outlooks have little skill for many areas and seasons, and may not contribute significantly to the outlook, late winter and spring temperature forecasts have meaningful skill in certain areas and sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales. This current skill in CPC temperature outlooks is an opportunity to translate these products into information about the snowpack and potential runoff timing, even where the skill in precipitation is low. Temperature is important for whether precipitation falls as snow or rain, which is critical for streamflow forecasts, especially in the melt season in snowpack-dependent watersheds. There is a need for better outlooks of the evolution of snowpack, conditions influencing the April-July runoff, and the timing of spring peak or shape of the spring hydrograph. The presentation will also discuss a our work with stakeholders of the River Forecast Centers and the NIDIS

Season-to-Season Variations of Physiological Fitness Within a Squad of Professional Male Soccer Players

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Niall A.; Edwards, Andrew M.; Morton, R. Hugh; Butterly, Ronald J.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine season-to-season variations in physiological fitness parameters among a 1st team squad of professional adult male soccer players for the confirmatory purposes of identifying normative responses (immediately prior to pre-season training (PPS), mid-season (MID), and end-of-season (EOS)). Test-retest data were collected from a student population on the primary dependent variables of anaerobic threshold (AT) and maximal aerobic power (VO2 max) to define meaningful measurement change in excess of test-retest technical error between test-to-test performances. Participants from a pool of 42 professional soccer players were tested over a set sequence of tests during the 3-year period: 1) basic anthropometry, 2) countermovement jump (CMJ) tests 3) a combined AT and VO2 max test. Over the 3-year period there were no test-to-test changes in mean VO2 max performance exceeding pre-defined limits of test agreement (mean of eight measures: 61.6 ± 0.6 ml·kg-1·min-1). In contrast, VO2 at AT was significantly higher at the MID test occasion in seasons 2 (+4.8%; p = 0.04, p elite cohort between test-to-test occasions, VO2 max values did not vary significantly over the study which supports previous short-term observations suggesting a general ‘elite’ threshold of 60 ml·kg-1 min. Interestingly, AT significantly varied where VO2 max was stable and these variations also coincided with on- and off-seasons suggesting that AT is a better indication of acute training state than VO2 max. Key points Maximal aerobic power remains fairly stable across inter- and intra-season measurements. Anaerobic threshold appears more sensitive of training state confirming our earlier observations. The professional players tended to attain optimal performances at the mid-season interval over the 3 seasons, presumably prior to the development of accumulative fatigue. PMID:24150149

Interannual and seasonal variability in short-term grazing impact of Euphausia superba in nearshore and offshore waters west of the Antarctic Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, R. M.; Quetin, L. B.; Haberman, K. L.

1998-11-01

Our focus in this paper is the interaction between macrozooplanktonic grazers and primary producers, and the interannual and seasonal variability in the Palmer Long-Term Ecological Research (Palmer LTER) study region from Anvers Island to Adelaide Island. Short-term grazing estimates are calculated by integrating (1) theoretical and experimental estimates of ingestion rates in response to the standing stock of phytoplankton, and (2) field measurements of phytoplankton standing stock and grazer biomass. Field data come from three austral summer cruises (January/February of 1993, 1994, and 1995) and one sequence of seasonal cruises (summer, fall and winter 1993). The relative and absolute abundance of the dominant macrozooplankton grazers, Euphausia superba and Salpa thompsoni, varied by at least an order of magnitude on the spatial and temporal scales observed. Mean grazing rates ranged from 0.4 to 9.0 μg chlorophyll m -2 h -1 for the Antarctic krill and salp populations over the three summer cruises. This leads to variability in the flow of carbon from the primary producers through the grazers on the same scales. Temporal and spatial variability in grazing impact and faecal pellet production are high.

Influence of seasonal variation in mood and behavior on cognitive test performance among young adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Merikanto, Ilona; Lahti, Tuuli; Castaneda, Anu E; Tuulio-Henriksson, Annamari; Aalto-Setälä, Terhi; Suvisaari, Jaana; Partonen, Timo

2012-10-01

Seasonal variations in mood and behavior are common among the general population and may have a deteriorating effect on cognitive functions. In this study the effect of seasonal affective disorder (SAD-like symptoms) on cognitive test performance were evaluated in more detail. The data were derived from the study Mental Health in Early Adulthood in Finland. Participants (n = 481) filled in a modified Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ) and performed cognitive tests in verbal and visual skills, attention and general intelligence. SAD-like symptoms, especially regarding the seasonal variations in weight and appetite, had a significant effect on working memory (Digit Span Backward, P = 0.008) and auditory attention and short-term memory (Digit Span Forward, P = 0.004). The seasonal variations in sleep duration and mood had an effect on auditory attention and short-term memory (Digit Span Forward, P = 0.02 and P = 0.0002, respectively). The seasonal variations in social activity and energy level had no effect. Seasonal changes in mood, appetite and weight have an impairing effect on auditory attention and processing speed. If performance tests are not to repeated in different seasons, attention needs to be given to the most appropriate season in which to test.

Short term load forecasting technique based on the seasonal exponential adjustment method and the regression model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Jie; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan; Dong, Yao; Lu, Xiaoxiao

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► The seasonal and trend items of the data series are forecasted separately. ► Seasonal item in the data series is verified by the Kendall τ correlation testing. ► Different regression models are applied to the trend item forecasting. ► We examine the superiority of the combined models by the quartile value comparison. ► Paired-sample T test is utilized to confirm the superiority of the combined models. - Abstract: For an energy-limited economy system, it is crucial to forecast load demand accurately. This paper devotes to 1-week-ahead daily load forecasting approach in which load demand series are predicted by employing the information of days before being similar to that of the forecast day. As well as in many nonlinear systems, seasonal item and trend item are coexisting in load demand datasets. In this paper, the existing of the seasonal item in the load demand data series is firstly verified according to the Kendall τ correlation testing method. Then in the belief of the separate forecasting to the seasonal item and the trend item would improve the forecasting accuracy, hybrid models by combining seasonal exponential adjustment method (SEAM) with the regression methods are proposed in this paper, where SEAM and the regression models are employed to seasonal and trend items forecasting respectively. Comparisons of the quartile values as well as the mean absolute percentage error values demonstrate this forecasting technique can significantly improve the accuracy though models applied to the trend item forecasting are eleven different ones. This superior performance of this separate forecasting technique is further confirmed by the paired-sample T tests

The stochastic seasonal behavior of energy commodity convenience yields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirantes, Andrés García; Población, Javier; Serna, Gregorio

2013-01-01

This paper contributes to the commodity pricing literature by consistently modeling the convenience yield with its empirically observed properties. Specifically, in this paper, we show how a four-factor model for the stochastic behavior of commodity prices, with two long- and short-term factors and two additional seasonal factors, may accommodate some of the most important empirically observed characteristics of commodity convenience yields, such as the mean reversion and stochastic seasonality. Based on this evidence, a theoretical model is presented and estimated to characterize the commodity convenience yield dynamics that are consistent with previous findings. We also show that commodity price seasonality is better estimated through convenience yields than through futures prices. - Highlights: • Energy commodity convenience yields exhibit mean reversion and stochastic seasonality. • We present a model for convenience yields accounting for their observed characteristics. • Commodity price seasonality is better estimated through convenience yields

The importance of interactions among nutrition, seasonality and socio-sexual factors in the development of hormone-free methods for controlling fertility.

Science.gov (United States)

Scaramuzzi, R J; Martin, G B

2008-07-01

Around the world, consumers are demanding animal products that are produced to agreed standards for human health, environmental management and animal welfare. This has led to the development in Australia of the concept of 'clean, green and ethical' (CGE) animal production based on the manipulation of nutrition ('focus feeding') and the application of phenomena, such as the 'male effect', to provide 'natural' methods for managing small ruminant production systems. With respect to the management of fertility, CGE involves utilization of the inherited responses of animals to environmental factors to manipulate their reproductive processes. The successful development and implementation of this new generation of management tools depends on a thorough yet holistic understanding of the interactions among environmental factors and the ways these interactions affect reproductive physiology and behaviour of the animal. For sheep and goats, a central aspect of CGE management is the way in which ovarian function is affected by three major factors (nutrition, photoperiod and socio-sexual signals) and by interactions among them. Nutrition can exert two profound yet contrasting types of effect on ovarian activity: (i) the complete inhibition of reproduction by undernutrition through the hypothalamic mechanism that controls ovulation and (ii) the enhancement of fecundity by nutritional supplementation, through a direct ovarian mechanism, in females that are already ovulating. A similarly profound control over ovarian function in female sheep and goats is exerted by the well-known endocrine responses to photoperiod (seasonality) and to male socio-sexual signals. The 'male effect' already has a long history as a valuable technique for inducing a synchronized fertile ovulation during seasonal and post-partum anoestrus in sheep and goats. Importantly, experimentation has shown that these three major environmental factors interact, synergistically and antagonistically, but the precise

Seasonal variation of strongylosis in working donkeys of Ethiopia: a cross-sectional and longitudinal studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Dibaba, Motuma Debelo; Getachew, A M; Assefa, Zerihun; Fanta, Alemayehu; Etana, Manyahilishal; Firew, Seyoum; Goshu, Lemessa; Burden, F

2017-07-01

Helminths are one of the major health problems of working donkeys, often with heavy worm burden and contributing to their early demise and/or reduction in their work output. Cross-sectional and longitudinal studies were conducted to investigate the current infection prevalence and level of strongyles infection donkeys would acquire through different seasons in the mid-lowland agro-ecological zones of Ethiopia. For this purpose, faecal samples from 206 (cross-sectional study) and 102 (longitudinal study) randomly selected donkeys were directly collected from the rectum and analysed. For the longitudinal study, the 102 donkeys dewormed at the end of main rainy season, beginning of October, were monitored for the level of strongyle infection they would acquire during subsequent dry and short rainy seasons. The cross-sectional study of 206 donkey has revealed an overall infection prevalence of 89.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 84.4, 92.9). Donkeys in the lowland zone showed a significantly higher strongyle infection prevalence (P = 0.0126) and mean eggs per gramme of faces (EPG) (P = 0.001; 2775 EPG) compared to donkeys in the midland zone (980.8 EPG). Age, sex and body condition did not have any significant effect on either the infection prevalence or level of infection (P > 0.05). The longitudinal study has shown a significantly lower strongyle infection prevalence (P = 0.003) and level of infection donkeys acquired (P = 0.001) in the subsequent dry and short rainy seasons compared to the main rainy season following October deworming. However, these values were not significantly different between the two agro-ecological zones (P > 0.05). This study clearly showed that parasitic infections are primarily acquired during the main rainy season when pasture/herbage coverage is relatively better, and the environment is conducive for parasites survival and development. On the other hand, the finding of majority of donkeys shedding low or no eggs during the

Seasonal isotope hydrology of a coffee agroforestry watershed in Costa Rica

Science.gov (United States)

Welsh Unwala, K.; Boll, J.; Roupsard, O.

2014-12-01

Improved information of seasonal variations in watershed hydrology in the tropics can strengthen models and understanding of hydrology of these areas. Seasonality in the tropics produces rainy seasons versus dry seasons, leading to different hydrologic and water quality processes throughout the year. We questioned whether stable isotopes in water can be used to trace the seasonality in this region, despite experiencing a "drier" season, such as in a Tropical Humid location. This study examines the fluctuations of stable isotope compositions (δ18O and δD) in water balance components in a small (deep groundwater system contributes significantly to baseflow, although a shallow, spring-driven system also contributes to stream water within the watershed. During storm events, precipitation contributes to stormflow in the short-term, confirming the role of superficial runoff. These results indicate that isotopes are helpful to partition the water balance even in a Tropical Humid situation where the rainfall seasonality is weak.

Capital versus income breeding in a seasonal environment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sainmont, Julie; Andersen, Ken Haste; Varpe, Oystein

2014-01-01

and thereby achieve a high annual growth rate, outcompeting capital breeders in long feeding seasons. Therefore, we expect to find a dominance of small income breeders in temperate waters, while large capital breeders should dominate high latitudes where the spring is short and intense. This pattern...

Impact of seasonal forcing on reactive ecological systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Vesipa, Riccardo; Ridolfi, Luca

2017-04-21

Our focus is on the short-term dynamics of reactive ecological systems which are stable in the long term. In these systems, perturbations can exhibit significant transient amplifications before asymptotically decaying. This peculiar behavior has attracted increasing attention. However, reactive systems have so far been investigated assuming that external environmental characteristics remain constant, although environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, moisture, water availability, etc.) can undergo substantial changes due to seasonal cycles. In order to fill this gap, we propose applying the adjoint non-modal analysis to study the impact of seasonal variations of environmental conditions on reactive systems. This tool allows the transient dynamics of a perturbation affecting non-autonomous ecological systems to be described. To show the potential of this approach, a seasonally forced prey-predator model with a Holling II type functional response is studied as an exemplifying case. We demonstrate that seasonalities can greatly affect the transient dynamics of the system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relationship of lightning activity and short-duration rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin; Qiao, Lin

2017-10-01

The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). An optimal radius of 10 km around selected AWSs is used to determine the lightning-rainfall relationship. The lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly, depending upon the intensity of SDR events. That is, correlation coefficient (R 0.7) for the short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR, i.e., ≥ 20 mm h- 1) events is found higher than that (R 0.4) for the weak SDR (i.e., 5-10 mm h- 1) events, and lower percentage of the SDHR events (< 10%) than the weak SDR events (40-50%) are observed with few flashes. Significant time-lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. Those events with lightning preceding rainfall account for 50-60% of the total SDR events. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications for improving the nowcast of SDHR events.

Wet Season Spatial Occurrence Of Phytoplankton and Zooplankton

African Journals Online (AJOL)

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were due to high freshwater inflow from adjoining waterways and reduced tidal incursion from the sea. ... Information dealing with the plankton species of the Lagos lagoon and its environs is ... short season of dry, dusty North-East Trade winds are experienced sometimes between ...... In: Freshwater. Algae of North America.

Seasonal trends of biogenic terpene emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Helmig, Detlev; Daly, Ryan Woodfin; Milford, Jana; Guenther, Alex

2013-09-01

Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from six coniferous tree species, i.e. Pinus ponderosa (Ponderosa Pine), Picea pungens (Blue Spruce), Pseudotsuga menziesii (Rocky Mountain Douglas Fir) and Pinus longaeva (Bristlecone Pine), as well as from two deciduous species, Quercus gambelii (Gamble Oak) and Betula occidentalis (Western River Birch) were studied over a full annual growing cycle. Monoterpene (MT) and sesquiterpene (SQT) emissions rates were quantified in a total of 1236 individual branch enclosure samples. MT dominated coniferous emissions, producing greater than 95% of BVOC emissions. MT and SQT demonstrated short-term emission dependence with temperature. Two oxygenated MT, 1,8-cineol and piperitone, were both light and temperature dependent. Basal emission rates (BER, normalized to 1000μmolm(-2)s(-1) and 30°C) were generally higher in spring and summer than in winter; MT seasonal BER from the coniferous trees maximized between 1.5 and 6.0μgg(-1)h(-1), while seasonal lows were near 0.1μgg(-1)h(-1). The fractional contribution of individual MT to total emissions was found to fluctuate with season. SQT BER measured from the coniferous trees ranged from emissions modeling, was not found to exhibit discernible growth season trends. A seasonal correction factor proposed by others in previous work to account for a sinusoidal shaped emission pattern was applied to the data. Varying levels of agreement were found between the data and model results for the different plant species seasonal data sets using this correction. Consequently, the analyses on this extensive data set suggest that it is not feasible to apply a universal seasonal correction factor across different vegetation species. A modeling exercise comparing two case scenarios, (1) without and (2) with consideration of the seasonal changes in emission factors illustrated large deviations when emission factors are applied for other seasons than those in which they were experimentally

Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature influences on failed consecutive rainy seasons over eastern Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

Rainfall over eastern Africa (10°S–10°N; 35°E–50°E) is bimodal, with seasonal maxima during the "long rains" of March–April–May (MAM) and the "short rains" of October–November–December (OND). Below average precipitation during consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa can have devastating long-term impacts on water availability and agriculture. Here, we examine the forcing of drought during consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa by Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The forcing of eastern Africa precipitation and circulation by SSTs is tested using ten ensemble simulations of a global weather forecast model forced by 1950–2010 observed global SSTs. Since the 1980s, Indo-Pacific SSTs have forced more frequent droughts spanning consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa. The increased frequency of dry conditions is linked to warming SSTs over the Indo-west Pacific and to a lesser degree to Pacific Decadal Variability. During MAM, long-term warming of tropical west Pacific SSTs from 1950–2010 has forced statistically significant precipitation reductions over eastern Africa. The warming west Pacific SSTs have forced changes in the regional lower tropospheric circulation by weakening the Somali Jet, which has reduced moisture and rainfall over the Horn of Africa. During OND, reductions in precipitation over recent decades are oftentimes overshadowed by strong year-to-year precipitation variability forced by the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Reservoir Inflow Forecast using Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

Science.gov (United States)

Mukhopadhyay, S.; Arumugam, S.

2017-12-01

Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) (15-90 days) streamflow forecasting is an emerging area of research that provides seamless information for reservoir operation from weather time scales to seasonal time scales. From an operational perspective, sub-seasonal inflow forecasts are highly valuable as these enable water managers to decide short-term releases (15-30 days), while holding water for seasonal needs (e.g., irrigation and municipal supply) and to meet end-of-the-season target storage at a desired level. We propose a Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (BHHMM) to develop S2S inflow forecasts for the Tennessee Valley Area (TVA) reservoir system. Here, the hidden states are predicted by relevant indices that influence the inflows at S2S time scale. The hidden Markov model also captures the both spatial and temporal hierarchy in predictors that operate at S2S time scale with model parameters being estimated as a posterior distribution using a Bayesian framework. We present our work in two steps, namely single site model and multi-site model. For proof of concept, we consider inflows to Douglas Dam, Tennessee, in the single site model. For multisite model we consider reservoirs in the upper Tennessee valley. Streamflow forecasts are issued and updated continuously every day at S2S time scale. We considered precipitation forecasts obtained from NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) GCM as predictors for developing S2S streamflow forecasts along with relevant indices for predicting hidden states. Spatial dependence of the inflow series of reservoirs are also preserved in the multi-site model. To circumvent the non-normality of the data, we consider the HMM in a Generalized Linear Model setting. Skill of the proposed approach is tested using split sample validation against a traditional multi-site canonical correlation model developed using the same set of predictors. From the posterior distribution of the inflow forecasts, we also highlight different system behavior

Growth form and seasonal variation in leaf gas exchange of Colophospermum mopane savanna trees in northwest Botswana.

Science.gov (United States)

Veenendaal, Elmar M; Mantlana, Khanyisa B; Pammenter, Norman W; Weber, Piet; Huntsman-Mapila, Phillipa; Lloyd, Jon

2008-03-01

We investigated differences in physiological and morphological traits between the tall and short forms of mopane (Colophospermum mopane (Kirk ex Benth.) Kirk ex J. Léonard) trees growing near Maun, Botswana on a Kalahari sandveld overlying an impermeable calcrete duricrust. We sought to determine if differences between the two physiognomic types are attributable to the way they exploit available soil water. The tall form, which was located on deeper soil than the short form (5.5 versus 1.6 m), had a lower leaf:fine root biomass ratio (1:20 versus 1:6), but a similar leaf area index (0.9-1.0). Leaf nitrogen concentrations varied between 18 and 27 mg g(-1) and were about 20% higher in the tall form than in the short form. Maximum net assimilation rates (A sat) occurred during the rainy seasons (March-April 2000 and January-February 2001) and were similar in the tall and short forms (15-22 micromol m(-2) s(-1)) before declining to less than 10 micromol m(-2) s(-1) at the end of the rainy season in late April. As the dry season progressed, A sat, soil water content, predawn leaf water potential (Psi pd) and leaf nitrogen concentration declined rapidly. Before leaf abscission, Psi pd was more negative in the short form (-3.4 MPa) than in the tall form (-2.7 MPa) despite the greater availability of soil water beneath the short form trees. This difference appeared attributable to differences in root depth and density between the physiognomic types. Stomatal regulation of water use and carbon assimilation differed between years, with the tall form having a consistently more conservative water-use strategy as the dry season progressed than the short form.

Seasonal phenology of interactions involving short-lived annual plants, a multivoltine herbivore and its endoparasitoid wasp.

Science.gov (United States)

Fei, Minghui; Gols, Rieta; Harvey, Jeffrey A

2014-01-01

Spatial-temporal realism is often missing in many studies of multitrophic interactions, which are conducted at a single time frame and/or involving interactions between insects with a single species of plant. In this scenario, an underlying assumption is that the host-plant species is ubiquitous throughout the season and that the insects always interact with it. We studied interactions involving three naturally occurring wild species of cruciferous plants, Brassica rapa, Sinapis arvensis and Brassica nigra, that exhibit different seasonal phenologies, and a multivoltine herbivore, the large cabbage white butterfly, Pieris brassicae, and its gregarious endoparasitoid wasp, Cotesia glomerata. The three plants have very short life cycles. In central Europe, B. rapa grows in early spring, S. arvensis in late spring and early summer, and B. nigra in mid to late summer. P. brassicae generally has three generations per year, and C. glomerata at least two. This means that different generations of the insects must find and exploit different plant species that may differ in quality and which may be found some distance from one another. Insects were either reared on each of the three plant species for three successive generations or shifted between generations from B. rapa to S. arvensis to B. nigra. Development time from neonate to pupation and pupal fresh mass were determined in P. brassicae and egg-to-adult development time and body mass in C. glomerata. Overall, herbivores performed marginally better on S. arvensis and B. nigra plants than on B. rapa plants. Parasitoids performance was closely tailored with that of the host. Irrespective as to whether the insects were shifted to a new plant in successive generations or not, development time of P. brassicae and C. glomerata decreased dramatically over time. Our results show that there were some differences in insect development on different plant species and when transferred from one species to another. However, all three

Seasonal Variation of the Material Transport Processes in the Ariake Sea

OpenAIRE

Manda, Atsuyoshi; Kanehara, Hisao; Aoshima, Takashi; Kinoshita, Tsukasa; Uchida, Jun; Nakata, Hideaki; Yanagi, Tetsuo

2010-01-01

Seasonal variation of the salt fluxes in the middle part of the Ariake Sea have been investigated by modeling with hydrographic and meteorological data. The salt flux due to the seasonally averaged density-driven currents accounts for approximately 60% of the total salt flux during summer. The salt flux due to the other processes, that are not treated explicitly, such as the tidal pumping, tideinduced residual currents, and short-term variations of the density- and winddriven currents dominat...

Inter-Seasonal Influenza is Characterized by Extended Virus Transmission and Persistence

Science.gov (United States)

Patterson Ross, Zoe; Komadina, Naomi; Deng, Yi-Mo; Spirason, Natalie; Kelly, Heath A.; Sullivan, Sheena G.; Barr, Ian G.; Holmes, Edward C.

2015-01-01

The factors that determine the characteristic seasonality of influenza remain enigmatic. Current models predict that occurrences of influenza outside the normal surveillance season within a temperate region largely reflect the importation of viruses from the alternate hemisphere or from equatorial regions in Asia. To help reveal the drivers of seasonality we investigated the origins and evolution of influenza viruses sampled during inter-seasonal periods in Australia. To this end we conducted an expansive phylogenetic analysis of 9912, 3804, and 3941 hemagglutinnin (HA) sequences from influenza A/H1N1pdm, A/H3N2, and B, respectively, collected globally during the period 2009-2014. Of the 1475 viruses sampled from Australia, 396 (26.8% of Australian, or 2.2% of global set) were sampled outside the monitored temperate influenza surveillance season (1 May – 31 October). Notably, rather than simply reflecting short-lived importations of virus from global localities with higher influenza prevalence, we documented a variety of more complex inter-seasonal transmission patterns including “stragglers” from the preceding season and “heralds” of the forthcoming season, and which included viruses sampled from clearly temperate regions within Australia. We also provide evidence for the persistence of influenza B virus between epidemic seasons, in which transmission of a viral lineage begins in one season and continues throughout the inter-seasonal period into the following season. Strikingly, a disproportionately high number of inter-seasonal influenza transmission events occurred in tropical and subtropical regions of Australia, providing further evidence that climate plays an important role in shaping patterns of influenza seasonality. PMID:26107631

Ecophysiological and phenological strategies in seasonally-dry ecosystems: an ecohydrological approach

Science.gov (United States)

Vico, Giulia; Manzoni, Stefano; Thompson, Sally; Molini, Annalisa; Porporato, Amilcare

2015-04-01

Seasonally-dry climates are particularly challenging for vegetation, as they are characterized by prolonged dry periods and often marked inter-annual variability. During the dry season plants face predictable physiological stress due to lack of water, whereas the inter-annual variability in rainfall timing and amounts requires plants to develop flexible adaptation strategies. The variety of strategies observed across seasonally-dry (Mediterranean and tropical) ecosystems is indeed wide - ranging from near-isohydric species that adjust stomatal conductance to avoid drought, to anisohydric species that maintain gas exchange during the dry season. A suite of phenological strategies are hypothesized to be associated to ecophysiological strategies. Here we synthetize current knowledge on ecophysiological and phenological adaptations through a comprehensive ecohydrological model linking a soil water balance to a vegetation carbon balance. Climatic regimes are found to select for different phenological strategies that maximize the long-term plant carbon uptake. Inter-annual variability of the duration of the wet season allows coexistence of different drought-deciduous strategies. In contrast, short dry seasons or access to groundwater favour evergreen species. Climatic changes causing more intermittent rainfall and/or shorter wet seasons are predicted to favour drought-deciduous species with opportunistic water use.

NEW SEASON NEW HOPES: OFF-SEASON OPTIMISM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oguz Ersan

2017-12-01

Full Text Available While literature on the relation between on-field sports performance and stock returns is ample, there is very limited evidence on off-season stage. Constituting around 3 months, off-seasons do not only occupy a significant part of the year but also represent totally different characteristics than on-seasons. They lack the periodic, unambiguous news events in on-seasons (match results, instead they are associated with highly uncertain transfer news and rumors. We show that this distinction has several impacts on the stock market performances of soccer clubs. Most notably, off-seasons generate substantially higher (excess returns. After controlling for other variables, the estimated effect of off-season periods is as high as 38.75%, annually. In line with several seminal studies, we link this fact to increased optimism and betting behavior through uncertain periods; and periods prior to the start of a new calendar (in our case, new season. For all of the examined 7 clubs (3 from Italy and 4 from Turkey, mean excess returns over the market are positive (negative in off-seasons (on-seasons. On-seasons are associated with increased trading activity due to more frequent news. Stocks of Italian clubs are evidently more volatile through off-seasons while volatility results for the stocks of Turkish clubs are not consistent.

Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season

Science.gov (United States)

2015-08-14

Influenza Seasonal Summarv 2014-2015 Season EpiData Center Department Communicable Disease Division NMCPHC-EDC-TR-394-2015 REPORT DOCUMENTATION... Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season Sb. GRANT NUMBER $c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHORjS) Sd. PROJECT NUMBER Ashleigh K McCabe, Kristen R...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 1<l. ABSTRACT This report summartzes influenza activity among Department of Navy (DON) and Depar1ment of Defense (DOD

An analysis of seasonal predictability in coupled model forecasts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peng, P.; Wang, W. [NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC (United States); Kumar, A. [NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2011-02-15

In the recent decade, operational seasonal prediction systems based on initialized coupled models have been developed. An analysis of how the predictability of seasonal means in the initialized coupled predictions evolves with lead-time is presented. Because of the short lead-time, such an analysis for the temporal behavior of seasonal predictability involves a mix of both the predictability of the first and the second kind. The analysis focuses on the lead-time dependence of ensemble mean variance, and the forecast spread. Further, the analysis is for a fixed target season of December-January-February, and is for sea surface temperature, rainfall, and 200-mb height. The analysis is based on a large set of hindcasts from an initialized coupled seasonal prediction system. Various aspects of predictability of the first and the second kind are highlighted for variables with long (for example, SST), and fast (for example, atmospheric) adjustment time scale. An additional focus of the analysis is how the predictability in the initialized coupled seasonal predictions compares with estimates based on the AMIP simulations. The results indicate that differences in the set up of AMIP simulations and coupled predictions, for example, representation of air-sea interactions, and evolution of forecast spread from initial conditions do not change fundamental conclusion about the seasonal predictability. A discussion of the analysis presented herein, and its implications for the use of AMIP simulations for climate attribution, and for time-slice experiments to provide regional information, is also included. (orig.)

Impacts of short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire on a ground nesting bird in the central hardwoods region of North America

Science.gov (United States)

Pittman, H. Tyler; Krementz, David G.

2016-01-01

Landscape-scale short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire, hereafter prescribed fire, in upland hardwood forests represents a recent shift in management strategies across eastern upland forests. Not only does this strategy depart from dormant season to growing season prescriptions, but the strategy also moves from stand-scale to landscape-scale implementation (>1,000 ha). This being so, agencies are making considerable commitments in terms of time and resources to this management strategy, but the effects on wildlife in upland forests, especially those dominated by hardwood canopy species, are relatively unknown. We initiated our study to assess whether this management strategy affects eastern wild turkey reproductive ecology on the Ozark-St. Francis National Forest. We marked 67 wild turkey hens with Global Positioning System (GPS) Platform Transmitting Terminals in 2012 and 2013 to document exposure to prescribed fire, and estimate daily nest survival, nest success, and nest-site selection. We estimated these reproductive parameters in forest units managed with prescribed fire (treated) and units absent of prescribed fire (untreated). Of 60 initial nest attempts monitored, none were destroyed or exposed to prescribed fire because a majority of fires occurred early than a majority of the nesting activity. We found nest success was greater in untreated units than treated units (36.4% versus 14.6%). We did not find any habitat characteristic differences between successful and unsuccessful nest-sites. We found that nest-site selection criteria differed between treated and untreated units. Visual concealment and woody ground cover were common selection criteria in both treated and untreated units. However, in treated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with fewer small shrubs (20 cm DBH) but not in untreated units. In untreated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with more large shrubs (≥5cm ground diameter) but did not select for small shrubs or large

Impacts of Short-Rotation Early-Growing Season Prescribed Fire on a Ground Nesting Bird in the Central Hardwoods Region of North America.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H Tyler Pittman

Full Text Available Landscape-scale short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire, hereafter prescribed fire, in upland hardwood forests represents a recent shift in management strategies across eastern upland forests. Not only does this strategy depart from dormant season to growing season prescriptions, but the strategy also moves from stand-scale to landscape-scale implementation (>1,000 ha. This being so, agencies are making considerable commitments in terms of time and resources to this management strategy, but the effects on wildlife in upland forests, especially those dominated by hardwood canopy species, are relatively unknown. We initiated our study to assess whether this management strategy affects eastern wild turkey reproductive ecology on the Ozark-St. Francis National Forest. We marked 67 wild turkey hens with Global Positioning System (GPS Platform Transmitting Terminals in 2012 and 2013 to document exposure to prescribed fire, and estimate daily nest survival, nest success, and nest-site selection. We estimated these reproductive parameters in forest units managed with prescribed fire (treated and units absent of prescribed fire (untreated. Of 60 initial nest attempts monitored, none were destroyed or exposed to prescribed fire because a majority of fires occurred early than a majority of the nesting activity. We found nest success was greater in untreated units than treated units (36.4% versus 14.6%. We did not find any habitat characteristic differences between successful and unsuccessful nest-sites. We found that nest-site selection criteria differed between treated and untreated units. Visual concealment and woody ground cover were common selection criteria in both treated and untreated units. However, in treated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with fewer small shrubs (20 cm DBH but not in untreated units. In untreated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with more large shrubs (≥5 cm ground diameter but did not select for small

Impacts of Short-Rotation Early-Growing Season Prescribed Fire on a Ground Nesting Bird in the Central Hardwoods Region of North America.

Science.gov (United States)

Pittman, H Tyler; Krementz, David G

2016-01-01

Landscape-scale short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire, hereafter prescribed fire, in upland hardwood forests represents a recent shift in management strategies across eastern upland forests. Not only does this strategy depart from dormant season to growing season prescriptions, but the strategy also moves from stand-scale to landscape-scale implementation (>1,000 ha). This being so, agencies are making considerable commitments in terms of time and resources to this management strategy, but the effects on wildlife in upland forests, especially those dominated by hardwood canopy species, are relatively unknown. We initiated our study to assess whether this management strategy affects eastern wild turkey reproductive ecology on the Ozark-St. Francis National Forest. We marked 67 wild turkey hens with Global Positioning System (GPS) Platform Transmitting Terminals in 2012 and 2013 to document exposure to prescribed fire, and estimate daily nest survival, nest success, and nest-site selection. We estimated these reproductive parameters in forest units managed with prescribed fire (treated) and units absent of prescribed fire (untreated). Of 60 initial nest attempts monitored, none were destroyed or exposed to prescribed fire because a majority of fires occurred early than a majority of the nesting activity. We found nest success was greater in untreated units than treated units (36.4% versus 14.6%). We did not find any habitat characteristic differences between successful and unsuccessful nest-sites. We found that nest-site selection criteria differed between treated and untreated units. Visual concealment and woody ground cover were common selection criteria in both treated and untreated units. However, in treated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with fewer small shrubs (20 cm DBH) but not in untreated units. In untreated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with more large shrubs (≥5 cm ground diameter) but did not select for small shrubs or

Progesterone and estradiol-17β concentrations in blood plasma of buffaloes during different reproductive disorders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaur, Harjit; Arora, S.P.; Sawhney, Ajay

1982-01-01

Six Murrah buffaloes in group I were fed as per NRC requirements and the same number in group II were kept at low level of nutrition. Blood samples were collected from all the buffaloes during estrus, anoestrus or even pregnancy, for estimation of progesterone and estradiol-17β. Progesterone levels were consistently low during anoestrus period (<1.0 ng/ml), but, peak occurred on day minus 10 of the next following estrus indicating that luteal activity preceded the first estrus after a prolonged anoestrum. The estradiol-17β levels did not show any distinct trend during anoestrus and subsequent estrous cycles. Underfed buffaloes required more services per conception. The mean progesterone concentrations during early pregnancy were 6.12 +- 0.21 and 5.31 +- 0.29 ng/ml in groups I and II, respectively, which were persistent. Plasma progesterone drop was recorded in buffaloes which aborted or showed foetal resorption, abrupt in the former case and at a slow rate in the latter case. (author)

Optimal design and application of a compound cold storage system combining seasonal ice storage and chilled water storage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yan, C.; Shi, W.; Li, X.; Zhao, Y.

2016-01-01

Seasonal cold storage using natural cold sources for cooling is a sustainable cooling technique. However, this technique suffers from limitations such as large storage space and poor reliability. Combining seasonal storage with short-term storage might be a promising solution while it is not

Seasonal Variability in European Radon Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Groves-Kirkby, C. J.; Denman, A. R.; Phillips, P. S.; Crockett, R. G. M.; Sinclair, J. M.

2009-04-01

In temperate climates, domestic radon concentration levels are generally seasonally dependent, the level in the home reflecting the convolution of two time-dependent functions. These are the source soil-gas radon concentration itself, and the principal force driving radon into the building from the soil, namely the pressure-difference between interior and exterior environment. While the meteorological influence can be regarded as relatively uniform on a European scale, its variability being defined largely by the influence of North-Atlantic weather systems, soil-gas radon is generally more variable as it is essentially geologically dependent. Seasonal variability of domestic radon concentration can therefore be expected to exhibit geographical variability, as is indeed the case. To compensate for the variability of domestic radon levels when assessing the long term radon health risks, the results of individual short-term measurements are generally converted to equivalent mean annual levels by application of a Seasonal Correction Factor (SCF). This is a multiplying factor, typically derived from measurements of a large number of homes, applied to the measured short-term radon concentration to provide a meaningful annual mean concentration for dose-estimation purposes. Following concern as to the universal applicability of a single SCF set, detailed studies in both the UK and France have reported location-specific SCF sets for different regions of each country. Further results indicate that SCFs applicable to the UK differ significantly from those applicable elsewhere in Europe and North America in both amplitude and phase, supporting the thesis that seasonal variability in indoor radon concentration cannot realistically be compensated for by a single national or international SCF scheme. Published data characterising the seasonal variability of European national domestic radon concentrations, has been collated and analysed, with the objective of identifying

A methodology for investigation of the seasonal evolution in proglacial hydrograph form

Science.gov (United States)

Hannah, David M.; Gurnell, Angela M.; McGregor, Glenn R.

1999-11-01

This paper advances an objective method of diurnal hydrograph classification as an aid to exploring changes in the hydrological functioning of glacierized catchments over the ablation season. The temporal sequencing of different hydrograph classes allows identification of seasonal evolution in hydrograph form and also assists delimitation of hydrologically-meaningful time periods of similar diurnal discharge response. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated by applying it to two contrasting summer discharge records for a small cirque basin. By comparing the results with patterns of surface energy receipt and glacier ablation, the seasonally transient relative influences of: (i) surface meltwater production and (ii) meltwater routing and storage conditions within the intervening glacier drainage system in determining runoff are elucidated. The method successfully characterizes distinct seasonal-scale changes in the diurnal outflow hydrograph during the ablation-dominated 1995 melt season but is also able to reveal underlying trends and short-term fluctuations in the precipitation-dominated, poorly ablation-regulated 1996 melt season. The limitations and benefits of this hydrograph classification technique are evaluated.

Photoperiodic Co-Regulation of Kisspeptin, Neurokinin B and Dynorphin in the Hypothalamus of a Seasonal Rodent

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bartzen-Sprauer, J; Klosen, P; Ciofi, P

2014-01-01

In many species, sexual activity varies on a seasonal basis. Kisspeptin (Kp), a hypothalamic neuropeptide acting as a strong activator of gonadotrophin-releasing hormone neurones, plays a critical role in this adaptive process. Recent studies report that two other neuropeptides, namely neurokinin...... (NKB) and dynorphin (DYN), are co-expressed with Kp (and therefore termed KNDy neurones) in the arcuate nucleus and that these peptides are also considered to influence GnRH secretion. The present study aimed to establish whether hypothalamic NKB and DYN expression is photoperiod......-dependent in a seasonal rodent, the Syrian hamster, which exhibits robust seasonal rhythms in reproductive activity. The majority of Kp neurones in the arcuate nucleus co-express NKB and DYN and the expression of all three peptides is decreased under a short (compared to long) photoperiod, leading to a 60% decrease......-localise with RFRP-immunoreactive neurones, and the expression of both NKB and DYN is higher under a short photoperiod, which is opposite to the short-day inhibition of RFRP expression. In conclusion, the present study shows that NKB and DYN display different photoperiodic variations in the Syrian hamster...

Increased plasma concentrations of vasopressin, oxytocin, cortisol and the prostaglandin F2alpha metabolite during labour in the dog.

Science.gov (United States)

Olsson, K; Bergström, A; Kindahl, H; Lagerstedt, A-S

2003-11-01

This study investigated if the plasma vasopressin concentration increases during labour in the dog and whether the change in vasopressin correlates with that of oxytocin, 15-ketodihydro-PGF2alpha and cortisol. Five beagle dogs each delivered three to seven puppies. Blood samples were taken from a catheter inserted into the cephalic vein during labour and by venepuncture during the other periods. Vasopressin concentration increased from 2 +/- 0 pmol L-1 (anoestrus) to 26 +/- 11 pmol L-1 at the birth of the first puppy, remained high at the birth of the second puppy and then decreased. Oxytocin increased from 63 +/- 5 pmol L-1 (anoestrus) to 166 +/- 19 pmol L-1 at the birth of the first puppy and remained elevated throughout labour. The PGF2alpha metabolite concentration increased from 0.2 +/- 0.0 nmol L-1 (anoestrus) to 66 +/- 17 nmol L-1 at the birth of the first puppy and remained elevated 1 h after the completion of parturition. The cortisol concentration increased from 49 +/- 9 nmol L-1 (anoestrus) to 242 +/- 35 nmol L-1 at the birth of the first puppy, remained high during the birth of the second puppy and then declined. The plasma level of vasopressin was strongly correlated with that of cortisol but less with that of the PGF2alpha metabolite, and not significantly with the concentration of oxytocin. This indicates that the four hormones play different roles during labour in the dog.

Pacing Behavior and Tactical Positioning in 500-and 1000-m Short-Track Speed Skating

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Noorbergen, Olaf S.; Konings, Marco J.; Micklewright, Dominic; Elferink-Gemser, Marge T.; Hettinga, Florentina J.

Purpose: To explore pacing behavior and tactical positioning during the shorter 500- and 1000-m short-track competitions. Methods: Lap times and intermediate rankings of elite 500- and 1000-m short-track-skating competitors were collected over the 2012-13 season. First, lap times were analyzed using

Seasonality in the Austrian Economy: Common Seasonals and Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Kunst, Robert M.

1992-01-01

Abstract: Seasonal cointegration generalizes the idea of cointegration to processes with unit roots at frequencies different from 0. Here, also the dual notion of common trends, "common seasonals", is adopted for the seasonal case. Using a five-variable macroeconomic core system of the Austrian economy, it is demonstrated how common seasonals and seasonal cointegrating vectors look in practice. Statistical tests provide clear evidence on seasonal cointegration in the system. However, it is sh...

Seasonal changes in the assembly mechanisms structuring tropical fish communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzgerald, Daniel B; Winemiller, Kirk O; Sabaj Pérez, Mark H; Sousa, Leandro M

2017-01-01

Despite growing interest in trait-based approaches to community assembly, little attention has been given to seasonal variation in trait distribution patterns. Mobile animals can rapidly mediate influences of environmental factors and species interactions through dispersal, suggesting that the relative importance of different assembly mechanisms can vary over short time scales. This study analyzes seasonal changes in functional trait distributions of tropical fishes in the Xingu River, a major tributary of the Amazon with large predictable temporal variation in hydrologic conditions and species density. Comparison of observed functional diversity revealed that species within wet-season assemblages were more functionally similar than those in dry-season assemblages. Further, species within wet-season assemblages were more similar than random expectations based on null model predictions. Higher functional richness within dry season communities is consistent with increased niche complementarity during the period when fish densities are highest and biotic interactions should be stronger; however, null model tests suggest that stochastic factors or a combination of assembly mechanisms influence dry-season assemblages. These results demonstrate that the relative influence of community assembly mechanisms can vary seasonally in response to changing abiotic conditions, and suggest that studies attempting to infer a single dominant mechanism from functional patterns may overlook important aspects of the assembly process. During the prolonged flood pulse of the wet season, expanded habitat and lower densities of aquatic organisms likely reduce the influence of competition and predation. This temporal shift in the influence of different assembly mechanisms, rather than any single mechanism, may play a large role in maintaining the structure and diversity of tropical rivers and perhaps other dynamic and biodiverse systems. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Feeding season duration and the relative success of capital and income spawning copepods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sainmont, Julie; Varpe, Øystein; Andersen, Ken Haste

to the spring bloom, using only its reserves accumulated the previous year (capital breeder). The success of these two strategies is related to the length of the spring bloom, the only source of nutrients for these copepods. We use an individual based model to approach the question of income versus capital...... breeders in a highly seasonal environment, and find that the capital breeders have a higher fitness during short spring bloom while the income breeder has an improved performance over long productive seasons...

Peripheral kisspeptin reverses short photoperiod-induced gonadal regression in Syrian hamsters by promoting GNRH release

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ansel, L; Bentsen, A H; Ancel, C

2011-01-01

In seasonal breeders, reproduction is synchronised by day length via the pineal hormone melatonin. In short winter days (short day, SD), the Syrian hamster displays a complete gonadal atrophy together with a marked reduction in expression of kisspeptins (Kp), a family of potent hypothalamic stimu...

Endocrinologic control of normal canine ovarian function.

Science.gov (United States)

Concannon, P W

2009-07-01

In dogs, the termination of the 3-10-month obligate anoestrus involves selection of a cohort of LH-sensitive follicles, presumably from a wave of dominant small antral follicles that would otherwise undergo atresia. The number and size of such follicles appears to increase, especially during the last 50 days of anoestrus when the already elevated concentrations of FSH become further elevated. The final selection and eventual terminal development of these follicles is caused by an increased frequency of high-amplitude LH pulses at the end of anoestrus. Concomitant increases in FSH are typically small or negligible. High concentrations of FSH in anoestrus are likely to be important in maintaining, if not stimulating, overlapping waves of dominant follicles throughout anoestrus, their expression of aromatase activity and basal oestradiol secretion sufficient to suppress LH by negative feedback. An attractive hypothesis is that late anoestrus increases in LH-stimulate synthesis of precursor androgen for already available FSH-dependent aromatase. After 7 or more days of elevated LH, and perhaps 2-5 days of semi-autonomous growth, with maximal oestradiol production reached, follicle capacity to further increase oestradiol becomes limited and excess progesterone becomes increasingly secreted. The pre-ovulatory LH surge and oestrus onset are then triggered - often synchronously and in concert with the terminal maturation of the follicles - by central effects of the large decrease in the oestrogen to progestin ratio. Follicular endocrine and paracrine events during and following the LH surge are likely similar to those reported for other species. The prolonged luteal phase lengths of 55-75 days in non-pregnant bitches bracket the 64 +/- 1 day in pregnancy and represent a genetically programmed luteal cell lifespan approximating gestation length as occurs in the luteal phase of hysterectomized animals of most polyoestrous artiodactyls and rodents. The 30-40-day slow

Introducing seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasts in local water management. First reflections from the Messara site, Crete, Greece.

Science.gov (United States)

Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Grillakis, Manolis; Tsanis, Ioannis

2017-04-01

Seasonal prediction is recently at the center of the forecasting research efforts, especially for regions that are projected to be severely affected by global warming. The value of skillful seasonal forecasts can be considerable for many sectors and especially for the agricultural in which water users and managers can benefit to better anticipate against drought conditions. Here we present the first reflections from the user/stakeholder interactions and the design of a tailored drought decision support system in an attempt to bring seasonal predictions into local practice for the Messara valley located in the central-south area of Crete, Greece. Findings from interactions with the users and stakeholders reveal that although long range and seasonal predictions are not used, there is a strong interest for this type of information. The increase in the skill of short range weather predictions is also of great interest. The drought monitoring and prediction tool under development that support local water and agricultural management will include (a) sources of skillful short to medium term forecast information, (b) tailored drought monitoring and forecasting indices for the local groundwater aquifer and rain-fed agriculture, and (c) seasonal inflow forecasts for the local dam through hydrologic simulation to support management of freshwater resources and drought impacts on irrigated agriculture.

Kisspeptins and RFRP-3 act in concert to synchronize rodent reproduction with seasons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valerie eSimonneaux

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Seasonal mammals use the photoperiodic variation in the nocturnal production of the pineal hormone melatonin to synchronize their reproductive activity with seasons. In rodents, the short day profile of melatonin secretion has long been proven to inhibit reproductive activity. Lately, we demonstrated that melatonin regulates the expression of the hypothalamic peptides kisspeptins (Kp and RFamide-related peptide-3 (RFRP-3, recently discovered as potent regulators of GnRH neuron activity. In the male Syrian hamster, Kp expression in the arcuate nucleus is down-regulated by melatonin independently of the inhibitory feedback of testosterone. A central or peripheral administration of Kp induces an increase in pituitary gonadotropins and gonadal hormone secretion, but most importantly a chronic infusion of the peptide reactivates the photoinhibited reproductive axis of Syrian hamsters kept in short day conditions. RFRP-3 expression in the dorsomedial hypothalamus is also strongly inhibited by melatonin in a short day photoperiod. Although RFRP-3 is usually considered as an inhibitory component of the gonadotropic axis, a central acute administration of RFRP-3 in the male Syrian hamster induces a marked increase in gonadotropin secretion and testosterone production. Furthermore, a chronic central infusion of RFRP-3 in short day-adapted hamsters reactivates the reproductive axis, in the same manner as Kp. Both Kp and RFRP-3 neurons project onto GnRH neurons and both neuropeptides regulate GnRH neuron activity. In addition, central RFRP-3 infusion was associated with a significant increase in arcuate Kp expression. However, the actual sites of action of both peptides in the Syrian hamster brain are still unknown. Altogether our findings indicate that Kp and RFRP neurons are pivotal relays for the seasonal regulation of reproduction, and also suggest that RFRP neurons might be the primary target of the melatoninergic message.

Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K. [The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States)

2012-12-15

Changes in growing seasons for 2041-2060 across Africa are projected using a regional climate model at 90-km resolution, and confidence in the predictions is evaluated. The response is highly regional over West Africa, with decreases in growing season days up to 20% in the western Guinean coast and some regions to the east experiencing 5-10% increases. A longer growing season up to 30% in the central and eastern Sahel is predicted, with shorter seasons in parts of the western Sahel. In East Africa, the short rains (boreal fall) growing season is extended as the Indian Ocean warms, but anomalous mid-tropospheric moisture divergence and a northward shift of Sahel rainfall severely curtails the long rains (boreal spring) season. Enhanced rainfall in January and February increases the growing season in the Congo basin by 5-15% in association with enhanced southwesterly moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic. In Angola and the southern Congo basin, 40-80% reductions in austral spring growing season days are associated with reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Large simulated reductions in growing season over southeastern Africa are judged to be inaccurate because they occur due to a reduction in rainfall in winter which is over-produced in the model. Only small decreases in the actual growing season are simulated when evapotranspiration increases in the warmer climate. The continent-wide changes in growing season are primarily the result of increased evapotranspiration over the warmed land, changes in the intensity and seasonal cycle of the thermal low, and warming of the Indian Ocean. (orig.)

Seasonal variation of solar radiation and underwater irradiance in the Seto inland sea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Endo, T.; Matsuda, O.; Imabayashi, H.

1983-01-01

The recent rapid eutrophication of the coastal seas of Japan has had a remarkable effect on the turbidity and transparency of the sea water, hence on the attenuation of underwater irradiance, which in turn influences the phytoplankton communities and primary productivity of the area. The present study deals with the continuous three years observation of the total short-wave radiation, direct short-wave radiation, diffused short-wave radiation and photosynthetically active radiation of tlle Seto Inland Sea. Along with these observations, reflected short-wave radiation from the sea and transmitted short-wave radiation into the sea were determined. The availability of solar radiation for primary production, vertical distribution of spectral irradiance and attenuation coefficient were also discussed in relation to the optical water type of the region. 1. A typical seasonal variation in the monthly mean daily solar radiation (total short-wave radiation) was observed, with a maximal value of 17.0 MJ 2 in July and minimal values of 7.4 to 7.5 MJ 2 through November to January. 2. Seasonal variation of direct short-wave radiation was nearly identical to that of total short-wave radiation, with 9.3 MJ 2 at maximum and 4.1MJ 2 at minimum. Diffused short-wave radiation increased in June and decreased in January. The ratio of diffused short-wave radiation to total short-wave radiation ranged from 394000 62% with an average of 49%.0 3. Seasonal variation of photosynthetically active radiation was very similar to that of direct short-wave radiation, with values of 7.3 MJ 2 in July and of 3.3 MJ 2 in December 4. The albedo at the sea surface changed according to the incidence angle and surface conditions. Average daily values ranged from 2.9% on a fine summer day to 10% on an overcasted day in winter. 5. Underwater irradiance at a depth of 50cm varied widely according to such parameters as turbidity and the surface condition of the water. Observation revealed a remarkable decrease

Effects of environment on buffalo reproduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. G. Vale

2010-02-01

Full Text Available It has been long recognized that the environment has an important role to play in the regulation of the mammalian reproductive function. Environmental cues, such as changing day-light or increase temperature, are know to trigger off growth or regression of the reproductive organs in a whole variety of species and nutrition and stress can influence the onset of breeding and affect the fertility. Although the domestic buffalo (Bubalus bubalis has been since long time considered as a short-day-breeder polyestral seasonal animal, indeed in the tropical areas near of equator line they are polyestral continuous. It would seem that photoperiod has a marked influence in buffalo reproduction in determinate areas of the world, however in some tropical areas like in Brazil, mainly in the Amazon valley and areas nearest of the equator the light seems to have a minimal effect or no effect on the reproductive cues however the nutrition and heat stress measured throughout temperature/ humidity indexes (THI play an important role in the reproductive functions of buffaloes and it is suggested that THI >75 has a negative effect on reproductive performances of buffaloes. The calving season is regulated by the availability of native pasture in the floodplain or in areas of artificial pasture On the other hand when buffaloes are raised in the southwest and southern regions (parallels 14 to 33 South they show a typical seasonal pattern when the calving season are concentrated between de February to July. The body condition score (BCS seems to affect directly the fertility of female buffaloes since females that calve with a BCS < 2.5 show delayed postpartum ovulation, weak estrus symptoms and more service per conception rate. Seasonal anestrus is a normal phenomenon in the out breeding season that occur in areas near, upon or down of the Cancer and Capricorn lines, respectively, however the anoestrus can be overcame by the use of hormone to synchronize heat and

Analysing environmental and fishing effects on a short-lived species ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Short-lived species are extremely dependent on the seasonal and interannual variability of environmental conditions, and determining their stock status is often difficult. This study investigates the effects of environmental variability and fishing pressure on the stock of octopus Octopus vulgaris in Senegalese waters over a ...

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael; Lyon, Bradfield; Funk, Chris

2013-01-01

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period

Histaminergic regulation of seasonal metabolic rhythms in Siberian hamsters.

Science.gov (United States)

I'anson, Helen; Jethwa, Preeti H; Warner, Amy; Ebling, Francis J P

2011-06-01

We investigated whether histaminergic tone contributes to the seasonal catabolic state in Siberian hamsters by determining the effect of ablation of histaminergic neurons on food intake, metabolic rate and body weight. A ribosomal toxin (saporin) conjugated to orexin-B was infused into the ventral tuberomammillary region of the hypothalamus, since most histaminergic neurons express orexin receptors. This caused not only 75-80% loss of histaminergic neurons in the posterior hypothalamus, but also some loss of other orexin-receptor expressing cells e.g. MCH neurons. In the long-day anabolic state, lesions produced a transient post-surgical decrease in body weight, but the hamsters recovered and maintained constant body weight, whereas weight gradually increased in sham-lesioned hamsters. VO(2) in the dark phase was significantly higher in the lesioned hamsters compared to shams, and locomotor activity also tended to be higher. In a second study in short days, sham-treated hamsters showed the expected seasonal decrease in body weight, but weight remained constant in the lesioned hamsters, as in the long-day study. Lesioned hamsters consumed more during the early dark phase and less during the light phase due to an increase in the frequency of meals during the dark and decreased meal size during the light, and their cumulative food intake in their home cages was greater than in the control hamsters. In summary, ablation of orexin-responsive cells in the posterior hypothalamus blocks the short-day induced decline in body weight by preventing seasonal hypophagia, evidence consistent with the hypothesis that central histaminergic mechanisms contribute to long-term regulation of body weight. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The reproductive performance of dairy cows with anovulatory anoestrus that were injected with either gonadotrophin-releasing hormone or oestradiol benzoate as part of a re-treatment process after insemination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B.V.E. Segwagwe

2007-05-01

Full Text Available This experiment compared the reproductive performance of synchronised anoestrous dairy cows that were treated initially with a combination of progesterone and oestradiol benzoate and then with either gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH or oestradiol benzoate to resynchronise returns to service. It was hypothesised that injecting anoestrous dairy cows with GnRH 12-15 days after insemination and coinciding with the time of insertion of a controlled intravaginal progesterone-releasing (CIDR device would increase conception rates to the preceding 1st insemination compared with oestradiol benzoate treated cows; both GnRH and oestradiol benzoate would resynchronising the returns to service of those cows that did not conceive to the preceding insemination. Groups of cows in 11 herds were presented for a veterinary examination after they had not been seen in oestrus postpartum. Those cows diagnosed with anovulatory anoestrus (n = 1112 by manual rectal palpation and / or ultrasonography were enrolled in the trial. Each enrolled cow was injected with 2mg oestradiol benzoate i.m. on Day -10, (where Day 0 was the 1st day of the planned insemination concurrently with vaginal insertion of a CIDR device. The device inserted was withdrawn on Day -2 and then each cow injected i.m. with 1 mg of oestradiol benzoate on Day -1 unless it was in oestrus. Observation for oestrus preceded each insemination. Every cow that had been inseminated on Days -1,0,1 or 2 was presented for treatment for resynchrony on Day 14 (n=891. They were divided into 2 groups; those with an even number were each injected i.m. with 250 µg of a GnRH agonist (Treatment group n = 477; each of the cows with an odd number injected i.m. with 1mg of oestradiol benzoate (control group, n = 414. Each GnRH or oestradiol benzoate injection preceded reinsertion of a CIDR device previously inserted from Days -10 to -2. It was withdrawn on Day 22, 24 hours before injecting 1mg oestradiol benzoate

Application of electron-beam irradiation on the production of salted and seasoned short-necked clam, Tapes Pilippinarum, for safe distribution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, B.; Song, H.P.; Choe, J.H.; Jung, S. [Department of Animal Science and Biotechnology, Chungnam National University, Daejeon 305-764 (Korea, Republic of); Jang, A. [Quality Control and Utilization of Animal Products, National Institute of Animal Science, Suwon 441-706 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Y.J. [Food Safety Research Division, Korea Food Research Institute, Seongnam 463-746 (Korea, Republic of); Jo, C. [Department of Animal Science and Biotechnology, Chungnam National University, Daejeon 305-764 (Korea, Republic of)], E-mail: cheorun@cnu.ac.kr

2009-07-15

Salted and seasoned short-necked clam (Tapes Philippinarum; SNC) and its major ingredients, red hot pepper powder, ginger, garlic and onion were irradiated at 0.5, 1, 2 and 5 kGy, respectively, and the microbiological and sensory quality were evaluated. The water activities of SNC and red pepper powder were 0.91 and 0.56, respectively, and others were higher than 0.97. The initial microbial populations of SNC were approximately 3.99, 4.38 and 2.22 log CFU/g for total aerobic bacteria, yeast and mold, and coliform bacteria. The highest contamination of total aerobic bacteria was detected from ground ginger among ingredients at 5.51 log CFU/g. Electron-beam irradiation (0, 0.5, 1, 2 and 5 kGy) significantly reduced the initial microbial level of SNC and its ingredients not only immediately after irradiation, but also during storage at 10 {sup o}C for 4 weeks (p<0.05). There was no adverse change of sensory score except for the color of onion irradiated at 5 kGy, which results in a lower score than control. From the results electron-beam irradiation is a useful tool to enhance the storage stability and safe distribution of SNC.

Financial results achieved in short-day strawberry production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Galić Dragan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In South-western Ontario's continental climate (short days, hot summers and very cold winters the matted-row system was the dominant production system to grow short-day strawberries. Varieties-staggered production (planting a combination of early, mid and late-season varieties provides strawberry harvest from five to seven weeks. Short-day strawberries are vegetative grown in the first year, and harvested for two consecutive years. The total cost of short-day strawberry production was 54,370 $CAD/ha. The production and harvest costs in the first and second years were 20,812 $CAD/ha and 16,930 $CAD/ ha, respectively, and accounted for 69.42% of the total. Pre-plans operations were the least expensive procedures costing 8.13%, while planting and care of young plants made up 22.45% of the total costs. The total income of growing short-day strawberries under a matted-row system was 76,671 $CAD/ha (the first and second production years 41,330 $CAD/ha and 35,341 $CAD/ha, respectively. The short-day strawberries in matted-row system, with average yield of 15,722 kg/ha, generated a net revenue of 22,300 $CAD/ha.

Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janczura, Joanna; Trück, Stefan; Weron, Rafał; Wolff, Rodney C.

2013-01-01

An important issue in fitting stochastic models to electricity spot prices is the estimation of a component to deal with trends and seasonality in the data. Unfortunately, estimation routines for the long-term and short-term seasonal pattern are usually quite sensitive to extreme observations, known as electricity price spikes. Improved robustness of the model can be achieved by (a) filtering the data with some reasonable procedure for outlier detection, and then (b) using estimation and testing procedures on the filtered data. In this paper we examine the effects of different treatments of extreme observations on model estimation and on determining the number of spikes (outliers). In particular we compare results for the estimation of the seasonal and stochastic components of electricity spot prices using either the original or filtered data. We find significant evidence for a superior estimation of both the seasonal short-term and long-term components when the data have been treated carefully for outliers. Overall, our findings point out the substantial impact the treatment of extreme observations may have on these issues and, therefore, also on the pricing of electricity derivatives like futures and option contracts. An added value of our study is the ranking of different filtering techniques used in the energy economics literature, suggesting which methods could be and which should not be used for spike identification. - Highlights: • First comprehensive study on the impact of spikes on seasonal pattern estimation • The effects of different treatments of spikes on model estimation are examined. • Cleaning spot prices for outliers yields superior estimates of the seasonal pattern. • Removing outliers provides better parameter estimates for the stochastic process. • Rankings of filtering techniques suggested in the literature are provided

Oxygen isotopic analyses of individual planktic foraminifera species: Implications for seasonality in the western Arabian Sea

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Naidu, P.D.; Niitsuma, N.; Naik, S.S.

The variation of stable isotopes between individual shells of planktic foraminifera of a given species and size may provide short-term seasonal insight on Paleoceanography. In this context, oxygen isotope analyses of individual Globigerinoides...

The effect of seasonal changes and climatic factors on suicide attempts of young people.

Science.gov (United States)

Akkaya-Kalayci, Türkan; Vyssoki, Benjamin; Winkler, Dietmar; Willeit, Matthaeus; Kapusta, Nestor D; Dorffner, Georg; Özlü-Erkilic, Zeliha

2017-11-15

Seasonal changes and climatic factors like ambient temperature, sunlight duration and rainfall can influence suicidal behavior. This study analyses the relationship between seasonal changes and climatic variations and suicide attempts in 2131 young patients in Istanbul, Turkey. In our study sample, there was an association between suicide attempts in youths and seasonal changes, as suicide attempts occurred most frequently during summer in females as well as in males. Furthermore, there was a positive correlation between the mean temperature over the past 10 days and temperature at the index day and suicide attempts in females. After seasonality effects were mathematically removed, the mean temperature 10 days before a suicide attempt remained significant in males only, indicating a possible short-term influence of temperature on suicide attempts. This study shows an association between suicide attempts of young people and climatic changes, in particular temperature changes as well as seasonal changes. Therefore, the influence of seasonal changes and climatic factors on young suicide attempters should get more attention in research to understand the biopsychosocial mechanisms playing a role in suicide attempts of young people. As suicide attempts most frequently occur in young people, further research is of considerable clinical importance.

Evaluating EO-based canopy water stress from seasonally detrended NDVI and SIWSI with modeled evapotranspiration in the Senegal River Basin

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Jørgen L.; Stisen, Simon; Proud, Simon Richard

2015-01-01

the Shortwave Infrared Water Stress Index (SIWSI) as compared to Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We perform a spatio-temporal evaluation of NDVI and SIWSI using geostationary remote sensing imagery from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). The indices and their seasonally......Satellite remote sensing of vegetation parameters and stress is a key issue for semi-arid areas such as the Sahel, where vegetation is an important part of the natural resource base. In this study we examine if additional information can be obtained on intra-seasonal short term scale by using...... gradient in the river catchment. The hypothesis that short term evolution of index anomalies are related to canopy water status was tested by comparing 10-day averages of ETa with short term changes in daily NDVI and SIWSI anomalies, and moderate to strong coefficients of determination where found when...

Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century

Science.gov (United States)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Orr, James C.

2018-01-01

How ocean acidification will affect marine organisms depends on changes in both the long-term mean and the short-term temporal variability of carbonate chemistry1-8. Although the decadal-to-centennial response to atmospheric CO2 and climate change is constrained by observations and models1, 9, little is known about corresponding changes in seasonality10-12, particularly for pH. Here we assess the latter by analysing nine earth system models (ESMs) forced with a business-as-usual emissions scenario13. During the twenty-first century, the seasonal cycle of surface-ocean pH was attenuated by 16 ± 7%, on average, whereas that for hydrogen ion concentration [H+] was amplified by 81 ± 16%. Simultaneously, the seasonal amplitude of the aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) was attenuated except in the subtropics, where it was amplified. These contrasting changes derive from regionally varying sensitivities of these variables to atmospheric CO2 and climate change and to diverging trends in seasonal extremes in the primary controlling variables (temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity). Projected seasonality changes will tend to exacerbate the impacts of increasing [H+] on marine organisms during the summer and ameliorate the impacts during the winter, although the opposite holds in the high latitudes. Similarly, over most of the ocean, impacts from declining Ωarag are likely to be intensified during the summer and dampened during the winter.

Influence of season of birth on growth and reproductive development of Brahman bulls.

Science.gov (United States)

Tatman, Shawn R; Neuendorff, Don A; Wilson, Timothy W; Randel, Ronald D

2004-07-01

Seasonal effects on reproduction are more dramatic in Bos indicus than Bos taurus cattle. This experiment evaluated reproductive development of fall- (n=7) versus spring- (n = 10) born Brahman bulls to determine if season of birth affects reproductive development. Measurements of growth and reproductive development began after weaning and continued at bi-weekly intervals until each bull reached sexual maturity. Different stages of sexual development were classified according to characteristics of the ejaculate and included first sperm in the ejaculate, puberty (> 50 x 10(6) sperm/ejaculate), and sexual maturity (two ejaculates with > 500 = 10(6) sperm/ejaculate). Average daily increases in all measured traits were similar in fall- and spring-born bulls and there were no differences in age, body weight, scrotal circumference, or paired testis volume between groups at first sperm or puberty. However, fall-born bulls were older (P days versus 481 days, respectively) as the interval between puberty and sexual maturity was longer (P days versus 54 days, respectively). The prolonged interval between puberty and sexual maturity in fall-born calves coincided with a short photoperiod (winter) whereas the short interval between puberty and sexual maturity in spring-born calves coincided with a long photoperiod (summer). In conclusion, season of birth affected sexual development; photoperiod might be involved in regulating testicular function immediately after puberty in Brahman bulls.

Ultra-short-course booster is effective in recurrent grass pollen-induced allergic rhinoconjunctivitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfaar, O; Lang, S; Pieper-Fürst, U; Astvatsatourov, A; Gerich, F; Klimek, L; Kramer, M F; Reydelet, Y; Shah-Hosseini, K; Mösges, R

2018-01-01

A relevant proportion of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis (ARC) patients experience recurrent symptoms after successfully completing allergen immunotherapy (AIT). This prospective, controlled, noninterventional study used internationally standardized instruments to determine the clinical effects of a preseasonal, ultra-short-course booster AIT on clinical outcome parameters. This two-arm study included patients aged ≥12 years with recurrent grass pollen-induced seasonal AR who had completed a successful course of any grass pollen AIT at least 5 years before enrolment. Overall, 56 patients received one preseasonal short-course booster AIT using tyrosine-absorbed grass pollen allergoids containing the adjuvant monophosphoryl lipid A (MPL ® ); 51 control patients received symptomatic medication. The combined symptom and medication score (CSMS) was recorded in the (peak) grass pollen season. Furthermore, concomitant (antiallergic) medication use, the patients' state of health, Mini Rhinoconjunctivitis Quality of Life Questionnaire (MiniRQLQ) results and safety/tolerability of the treatment were assessed. The CSMS in the peak grass pollen season was significantly lower in the booster AIT group (Δ=38.4%, Pallergoids containing the adjuvant MPL ® effectively prevents re-occurrence of symptoms in patients with grass pollen-induced ARC. © 2017 The Authors. Allergy Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seasonal response of ghrelin, growth hormone, and insulin-like growth factor I in the free-ranging Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

Science.gov (United States)

Tighe, Rachel L; Bonde, Robert K.; Avery, Julie P.

2016-01-01

Seasonal changes in light, temperature, and food availability stimulate a physiological response in an animal. Seasonal adaptations are well studied in Arctic, Sub-Arctic, and hibernating mammals; however, limited studies have been conducted in sub-tropical species. The Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), a sub-tropical marine mammal, forages less during colder temperatures and may rely on adipose stores for maintenance energy requirements. Metabolic hormones, growth hormone (GH), insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I, and ghrelin influence growth rate, accretion of lean and adipose tissue. They have been shown to regulate seasonal changes in body composition. The objective of this research was to investigate manatee metabolic hormones in two seasons to determine if manatees exhibit seasonality and if these hormones are associated with seasonal changes in body composition. In addition, age related differences in these metabolic hormones were assessed in multiple age classes. Concentrations of GH, IGF-I, and ghrelin were quantified in adult manatee serum using heterologous radioimmunoassays. Samples were compared between short (winter) and long (summer) photoperiods (n = 22 male, 20 female) and by age class (adult, juvenile, and calf) in long photoperiods (n = 37). Short photoperiods tended to have reduced GH (p = 0.08), greater IGF-I (p = 0.01), and greater blubber depth (p = 0.03) compared with long photoperiods. No differences were observed in ghrelin (p = 0.66). Surprisingly, no age related differences were observed in IGF-I or ghrelin concentrations (p > 0.05). However, serum concentrations of GH tended (p = 0.07) to be greater in calves and juveniles compared with adults. Increased IGF-I, greater blubber thickness, and reduced GH during short photoperiod suggest a prioritization for adipose deposition. Whereas, increased GH, reduced blubber thickness, and decreased IGF-I in long photoperiod suggest prioritization of lean tissue

Seasonal correction factors in radon exposure assessment: are they help or hindrance?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Denman, A.R.; Groves-Kirkby, C.J.; Phillips, P.S.; Woolridge, A.C.; Crockett, R.G.M.

2008-01-01

Northern Hemisphere radon levels are generally higher in Winter than in Summer, primarily due to the increased interior/exterior temperature difference during the heating season, which results in greater atmospheric pressure differential and enhanced radon ingress. Following a survey of domestic radon levels in the United Kingdom (UK), the former National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) established measurement protocols and promulgated nationally-applicable Seasonal Correction Factors (SCF). These factors convert a one-month or three-month radon concentration measurement, commencing in any month of the year, to an annual mean radon concentration. Subsequent study suggests that this approach may not be sufficiently sensitive to local conditions, and a major independent investigation reported seasonal correction factors specific to nine geographic regions, together with a composite set applicable to all regions. Similar geographical variability has been observed in other countries. In a recent evaluation of the applicability of short-term exposures in quantifying long-term domestic radon levels, radon levels in 34 houses were monitored over a 12-month period with 1-week, 1-month and 3-month exposures. Radon concentration variation departed significantly from that expected on the basis of the recommended SCFs, with year-end discontinuities at all exposure durations. Weekly monitoring with electrets was continued in three of these locations for four years. Short-term variations in radon levels were observed, particularly during the shorter exposures, and this dataset has also shown year-on-year variations. Overall, SCFs derived from this dataset are significantly lower than those recommended, but are comparable with other results from the UK and elsewhere, particularly those that recognise geological diversity and are consequently prepared on a regional rather than a national basis. These findings call into question the validity of using nationally

Abundance, Fishing Season and Management Strategy for Blue Swimming Crab (Portunus pelagicus) in Pangkajene Kepulauan, South Sulawesi, Indonesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Wiyono, Eko Sri; Ihsan

2018-03-01

In order to manage blue swimming crabs in Pangkajene Kepulauan, management measures are required. Since the environment which affects the abundance of the blue swimming crab varies seasonally, it is necessary to take into account the seasonal nature with the aim of developing a management strategy. The objectives of this study are to define the abundance of and fishing season of blue swimming crabs in the Pangkajene Kepulauan waters, South Sulawesi, Indonesia. The fishing season was analysed using seasonal index analysis, while fish abundance was analysed by means of Equilibrium-Schaefer. The result of this study demonstrated that fishermen allocate their fishing gear all year, although the fish catch is seasonal. Based on analysis of the result, the fishing season for the blue swimming crabs is short. The peak fishing season starts in May and finishes in June. However, in order to enable their families to earn a living, fishermen operated their fishing gear throughout the year. As a result, both catch landing and effort were close to maximum sustainable yield (MSY). In order to reduce fishing pressure, it is necessary to reduce fishing gear and have a seasonal arrangement regarding fishing gear allocation.

Seasonal variations of aerosol residence time in the lower atmospheric boundary layer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, A.A.; Mohamed, A.; Ali, A.E.; Barakat, A.; Abd El-Hady, M.; El-Hussein, A.

2004-01-01

During a one year period, from Jan. 2002 up to Dec. 2002, approximately 130 air samples were analyzed to determine the atmospheric air activity concentrations of short- and long-lived ( 222 Rn) decay products 214 Pb and 210 Pb. The samples were taken by using a single-filter technique and γ-spectrometry was applied to determine the activity concentrations. A seasonal fluctuation in the concentration of 214 Pb and 210 Pb in surface air was observed. The activity concentrations of both radionuclides were observed to be relatively higher during the winter/autumn season than in spring/summer season. The mean activity concentration of 214 Pb and 210 Pb within the whole year was found to be 1.4±0.27 Bq m -3 and 1.2±0.15 mBq m -3 , respectively. Different 210 Pb: 214 Pb activity ratios during the year varied between 1.78x10 -4 and 1.6x10 -3 with a mean value of 8.9x10 -4 ±7.6x10 -5 . From the ratio between the activity concentrations of the radon decay products 214 Pb and 210 Pb a mean residence time (MRT) of aerosol particles in the atmosphere of about 10.5±0.91 d could be estimated. The seasonal variation pattern shows relatively higher values of MRT in spring/summer season than in winter/autumn season. The MRT data together with relative humidity (RH), air temperature (T) and wind speed (WS), were used for a comprehensive regression analysis of its seasonal variation in the atmospheric air

A New Strategy for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Yang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Electricity is a special energy which is hard to store, so the electricity demand forecasting remains an important problem. Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF plays a vital role in power systems because it is the essential part of power system planning and operation, and it is also fundamental in many applications. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work very well for STLF, a hybrid model based on the seasonal ARIMA model and BP neural network is presented in this paper to improve the forecasting accuracy. Firstly the seasonal ARIMA model is adopted to forecast the electric load demand day ahead; then, by using the residual load demand series obtained in this forecasting process as the original series, the follow-up residual series is forecasted by BP neural network; finally, by summing up the forecasted residual series and the forecasted load demand series got by seasonal ARIMA model, the final load demand forecasting series is obtained. Case studies show that the new strategy is quite useful to improve the accuracy of STLF.

Effects of a short-term pre-season training programme on the body composition and anaerobic performance of professional rugby union players.

Science.gov (United States)

Argus, Christos K; Gill, Nicholas; Keogh, Justin; Hopkins, Will G; Beaven, C Martyn

2010-04-01

Pre-season rugby training develops the physical requisites for competition and consists of a high volume of resistance training and anaerobic and aerobic conditioning. However, the effects of a rugby union pre-season in professional athletes are currently unknown. Therefore, the purpose of this investigation was to determine the effects of a 4-week pre-season on 33 professional rugby union players. Bench press and box squat increased moderately (13.6 kg, 90% confidence limits +/-2.9 kg and 17.6 +/- 8.0 kg, respectively) over the training phase. Small decreases in bench throw (70.6 +/- 53.5 W), jump squat (280.1 +/- 232.4 W), and fat mass (1.4 +/- 0.4 kg) were observed. In addition, small increases were seen in fat-free mass (2.0 +/- 0.6 kg) and flexed upper-arm girth (0.6 +/- 0.2 cm), while moderate increases were observed in mid-thigh girth (1.9 +/- 0.5 cm) and perception of fatigue (0.6 +/- 0.4 units). Increases in strength and body composition were observed in elite rugby union players after 4 weeks of intensive pre-season training, but this may have been the result of a return to fitness levels prior to the off-season. Decreases in power may reflect high training volumes and increases in perceived of fatigue.

Seasonality of reproduction and production in farm fishes, birds and mammals.

Science.gov (United States)

Chemineau, P; Malpaux, B; Brillard, J P; Fostier, A

2007-03-01

A very large majority of farm animals express seasonal variations in their production traits, thus inducing seasonal availability of fresh derived animal products (meat, milk, cheese and eggs). This pattern is in part the consequence of the farmer's objective to market his products in the most economically favourable period. It may also be imposed by the season-dependent access to feed resources, as in ruminants, or by the specific requirements derived from adaptation to environmental conditions such as water temperature in fish. But seasonal variations in animal products are also the consequence of constraints resulting from the occurrence of a more or less marked seasonal reproductive season in most farm animal species including fish, poultry and mammals. Like their wild counterparts, at mid and high latitudes, most farm animals normally give birth at the end of winter-early spring, the most favourable period for the progeny to survive and thus promote the next generation. As a consequence, most species show seasonal variations in their ovulation frequency (mammals and fish: presence or absence of ovulation; birds: variations or suppression of laying rates), spermatogenic activity (from moderate to complete absence of sperm production), gamete quality (variations in fertilisation rates and embryo survival), and also sexual behaviour. Among species of interest for animal production, fishes and birds are generally considered as more directly sensitive to external factors (mainly temperature in fish, photoperiod in birds). In all species, it is therefore advisable that artificial photoperiodic treatments consisting of extra-light during natural short days (in chickens, turkeys, guinea fowl, sheep and goats) or melatonin during long days (in goats, sheep) be extensively used to either adjust the breeding season to animal producer needs and/or to completely overcome seasonal variations of sperm production in artificial insemination centres (mammals) and breeder flock

Seasonal and episodic moisture controls on plant and microbial contributions to soil respiration.

Science.gov (United States)

Carbone, Mariah S; Still, Christopher J; Ambrose, Anthony R; Dawson, Todd E; Williams, A Park; Boot, Claudia M; Schaeffer, Sean M; Schimel, Joshua P

2011-09-01

Moisture inputs drive soil respiration (SR) dynamics in semi-arid and arid ecosystems. However, determining the contributions of root and microbial respiration to SR, and their separate temporal responses to periodic drought and water pulses, remains poorly understood. This study was conducted in a pine forest ecosystem with a Mediterranean-type climate that receives seasonally varying precipitation inputs from both rainfall (in the winter) and fog-drip (primarily in the summer). We used automated SR measurements, radiocarbon SR source partitioning, and a water addition experiment to understand how SR, and its separate root and microbial sources, respond to seasonal and episodic changes in moisture. Seasonal changes in SR were driven by surface soil water content and large changes in root respiration contributions. Superimposed on these seasonal patterns were episodic pulses of precipitation that determined the short-term SR patterns. Warm season precipitation pulses derived from fog-drip, and rainfall following extended dry periods, stimulated the largest SR responses. Microbial respiration dominated these SR responses, increasing within hours, whereas root respiration responded more slowly over days. We conclude that root and microbial respiration sources respond differently in timing and magnitude to both seasonal and episodic moisture inputs. These findings have important implications for the mechanistic representation of SR in models and the response of dry ecosystems to changes in precipitation patterns.

Extending to seasonal scales the current usage of short range weather forecasts and climate projections for water management in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez-Camino, Ernesto; Voces, José; Sánchez, Eroteida; Navascues, Beatriz; Pouget, Laurent; Roldan, Tamara; Gómez, Manuel; Cabello, Angels; Comas, Pau; Pastor, Fernando; Concepción García-Gómez, M.°; José Gil, Juan; Gil, Delfina; Galván, Rogelio; Solera, Abel

2016-04-01

This presentation, first, briefly describes the current use of weather forecasts and climate projections delivered by AEMET for water management in Spain. The potential use of seasonal climate predictions for water -in particular dams- management is then discussed more in-depth, using a pilot experience carried out by a multidisciplinary group coordinated by AEMET and DG for Water of Spain. This initiative is being developed in the framework of the national implementation of the GFCS and the European project, EUPORIAS. Among the main components of this experience there are meteorological and hydrological observations, and an empirical seasonal forecasting technique that provides an ensemble of water reservoir inflows. These forecasted inflows feed a prediction model for the dam state that has been adapted for this purpose. The full system is being tested retrospectively, over several decades, for selected water reservoirs located in different Spanish river basins. The assessment includes an objective verification of the probabilistic seasonal forecasts using standard metrics, and the evaluation of the potential social and economic benefits, with special attention to drought and flooding conditions. The methodology of implementation of these seasonal predictions in the decision making process is being developed in close collaboration with final users participating in this pilot experience.

Effects of Altered Seasonality of Precipitation on Grass Production and Grasshopper Performance in a Northern Mixed Prairie.

Science.gov (United States)

Branson, David H

2017-06-01

Climatic changes are leading to differing patterns and timing of precipitation in grassland ecosystems, with the seasonal timing of precipitation affecting plant biomass and plant composition. No previous studies have examined how drought seasonality affects grasshopper performance and the impact of herbivory on vegetation. We modified seasonal patterns of precipitation and grasshopper density in a manipulative experiment to examine if seasonality of drought combined with herbivory affected plant biomass, nitrogen content, and grasshopper performance. Grass biomass was affected by both precipitation and grasshopper density treatments, while nitrogen content of grass was higher with early-season drought. Proportional survival was negatively affected by initial density, while survival was higher with early drought than with full-season drought. Drought timing affected the outcome, with early summer drought increasing grass nitrogen content and grasshopper survival, while season-long and late-season drought did not. The results support arguments that our knowledge of plant responses to seasonal short-term variation in climate is limited and illustrate the importance of experiments manipulating precipitation phenology. The results confirm that understanding the season of drought is critical for predicting grasshopper population dynamics, as extreme early summer drought may be required to strongly affect Melanoplus sanguinipes (F.) performance. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Within-season variability of fighting behaviour in an Australian alpine grasshopper.

Science.gov (United States)

Muschett, Giselle; Umbers, Kate D L; Herberstein, Marie E

2017-01-01

Throughout the breeding season, changing environmental and biological conditions can lead to variation in the reproductive landscape of many species. In alpine environments temperature is a key driver of behaviour for small ectotherms such as insects, but variable biotic factors such as mate quality and availability can also influence behaviour. Kosicuscola tristis is a small semelparous grasshopper of the Australian alpine region. In a rare behaviour among grasshoppers, K. tristis males engage in vigorous fights over access to females, involving mandible displays, kicking, biting and grappling. In this study we describe the variation in fighting behaviour of K. tristis throughout the breeding season and test several hypotheses related to temperature, body size, mating behaviour, and female quality. We show that K. tristis males are more aggressive toward each other at the end of the breeding season than at the beginning. This increased aggression is associated with decreased daily average temperatures (from ~20°C to ~9°C), decreased mating activity, increased female fecundity, and an unexpected trend toward an increase in female-to-male aggression. These results suggest that K. tristis is likely under increased selective pressure to time key life cycle events with favourable biological and climatic conditions. The stochastic nature of alpine environments combined with a relatively short life span and breeding season, as well as limited mating opportunities toward the end of the season may have contributed to the evolution of this extraordinary mating system.

Man biting rate seasonal variation of malaria vectors in Roraima, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fábio Saito Monteiro de Barros

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Malaria control has been directed towards regional actions where more detailed knowledge of local determinants of transmission is of primary importance. This is a short report on range distribution and biting indices for Anopheles darlingi and An. albitarsis during the dry and rainy season that follows river level variation in a savanna/alluvial forest malaria system area in the Northern Amazon Basin. Distribution range and adult biting indices were at their highest during the rainy season for both An. darlingi and An. albitarsis. During the rainy season the neighboring alluvial forest was extensively flooded. This coincided with highest rates in malaria transmission with case clustering near the river. As the river receded, anopheline distribution range and density decreased. This decrease in distribution and density corresponded to a malaria decrease in the near area. An exponential regression function was derived to permit estimations of An. darlingi distribution over specified distances. Anopheline spatio-temporal variations lead to uneven malaria case distribution and are of important implications for control strategies.

Influenza epidemics, seasonality, and the effects of cold weather on cardiac mortality

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background More people die in the winter from cardiac disease, and there are competing hypotheses to explain this. The authors conducted a study in 48 US cities to determine how much of the seasonal pattern in cardiac deaths could be explained by influenza epidemics, whether that allowed a more parsimonious control for season than traditional spline models, and whether such control changed the short term association with temperature. Methods The authors obtained counts of daily cardiac deaths and of emergency hospital admissions of the elderly for influenza during 1992–2000. Quasi-Poisson regression models were conducted estimating the association between daily cardiac mortality, and temperature. Results Controlling for influenza admissions provided a more parsimonious model with better Generalized Cross-Validation, lower residual serial correlation, and better captured Winter peaks. The temperature-response function was not greatly affected by adjusting for influenza. The pooled estimated increase in risk for a temperature decrease from 0 to −5°C was 1.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.1%). Influenza accounted for 2.3% of cardiac deaths over this period. Conclusions The results suggest that including epidemic data explained most of the irregular seasonal pattern (about 18% of the total seasonal variation), allowing more parsimonious models than when adjusting for seasonality only with smooth functions of time. The effect of cold temperature is not confounded by epidemics. PMID:23025494

Development of seasonal flow outlook model for Ganges-Brahmaputra Basins in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Hossain, Sazzad; Haque Khan, Raihanul; Gautum, Dilip Kumar; Karmaker, Ripon; Hossain, Amirul

2016-10-01

Bangladesh is crisscrossed by the branches and tributaries of three main river systems, the Ganges, Bramaputra and Meghna (GBM). The temporal variation of water availability of those rivers has an impact on the different water usages such as irrigation, urban water supply, hydropower generation, navigation etc. Thus, seasonal flow outlook can play important role in various aspects of water management. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) in Bangladesh provides short term and medium term flood forecast, and there is a wide demand from end-users about seasonal flow outlook for agricultural purposes. The objective of this study is to develop a seasonal flow outlook model in Bangladesh based on rainfall forecast. It uses European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal precipitation, temperature forecast to simulate HYDROMAD hydrological model. Present study is limited for Ganges and Brahmaputra River Basins. ARIMA correction is applied to correct the model error. The performance of the model is evaluated using coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The model result shows good performance with R2 value of 0.78 and NSE of 0.61 for the Brahmaputra River Basin, and R2 value of 0.72 and NSE of 0.59 for the Ganges River Basin for the period of May to July 2015. The result of the study indicates strong potential to make seasonal outlook to be operationalized.

Evaluation of the reproductive performance of crossbred zebu cattle under artificial insemination through the use of progesterone RIA in Venezuela and its improvement with temporary calf removal and progesterone implants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soto Belloso, E.; Portillo Martinez, G.; De Ondiz, A.; Rojas, N.; Soto Castillo, G.; Aranguren, J.; Ramirez Iglesia, L.; Perera, F.

2001-01-01

A survey was carried out to evaluate the reproductive performance of crossbred zebu cattle under artificial insemination (AI). Defatted milk samples were taken for progesterone radioimmunoassay at the moment of AI (day 0), 10 days and 22 days after AI and at manual pregnancy diagnosis. Six farms located in the western region of Venezuela were used in this study and a total of 600 AI were included. The calving to first service interval (CFSI) and the calving to conception interval (CCI) showed no significant differences between the hand milking (suckling) and machine milking (non suckling) systems. However, significant differences (P<0.05) were found among farms within the traditional and hand milking system. The mean (± SEM) CFSI for first calving heifers and for cows with second or higher parity was 141.9 ± 6.9 and 71.8 ± 4.2 days (P<0.05), and the CCI for these two groups was 154 ± 8.9 and 80.8 ± 5.5 days (P<0.05), respectively. Cows calving in the dry season had CFSI and CCI of 115.4 ± 5.2 and 123.8 ± 6.8 days, while for those calving in the rainy season the intervals were 98.3 ± 5.5 and 111.1 ± 7.2 days respectively (P<0.05). Predominantly Bos indicus cows had shorter CFSI and CCI (P<0.05) than predominantly Bos taurus cows. Overall conception rate, analyzed by Chi-square, showed significant differences due to predominant breed and parity. Correct heat detection, as determined by low progesterone levels at AI, was 95.5% in the best farm and 83.3% in the worst farm. The results of this study identify a postpartum anoestrus problem, especially in the first calf heifers with an important effect of season, breed, farm, and heat detection on the reproductive efficiency of farms under AI. After this survey a study was carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of calf removal for 96 hours compared with treatment using norgestomet implants and PMSG for oestrus induction and fertility in crossbred primiparous acyclic zebu. cows which were suckled twice a day

Out-of-season recollection of drug use for seasonal IgE-mediated rhinitis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bødtger, Uffe; Malling, Hans-Jørgen; Poulsen, Lars K

2005-01-01

in a double-blind study. Drug use was recorded daily during the season 2000 and out-seasonally 6 months after the seasons 1999 and 2000. The mean daily drug use was transformed into a 4-point categorical scale for simplicity and was calculated for the out-seasonal rating and for 6 in-seasonal periods...

The effect of transport time, season and position on the truck on stress response in rabbits

OpenAIRE

Liste, M.G; María, G. A.; García-Belenguer, S.; Chacón, G.; Gazzola, P.; Villarroel, M.

2008-01-01

The present study analyzed the effect of transport time, season and position on the truck on physiological stress response of commercial rabbits in Aragón (Spain). A total of 156 animals were sampled in a 2x2x3 factorial design testing two transport times: short, 1 hour (1hT) and long, 7 hours (7hT), in two different seasons: hot, during summer (HT) and cold during winter (CT), and three different positions on the truck: upper, middle or lower decks in multi-floor cages on rolling stands (MFR...

Seasonal variability in methane and nitrous oxide fluxes from tropical peatlands in the western Amazon basin

Science.gov (United States)

Arn Teh, Yit; Murphy, Wayne A.; Berrio, Juan-Carlos; Boom, Arnoud; Page, Susan E.

2017-08-01

The Amazon plays a critical role in global atmospheric budgets of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). However, while we have a relatively good understanding of the continental-scale flux of these greenhouse gases (GHGs), one of the key gaps in knowledge is the specific contribution of peatland ecosystems to the regional budgets of these GHGs. Here we report CH4 and N2O fluxes from lowland tropical peatlands in the Pastaza-Marañón foreland basin (PMFB) in Peru, one of the largest peatland complexes in the Amazon basin. The goal of this research was to quantify the range and magnitude of CH4 and N2O fluxes from this region, assess seasonal trends in trace gas exchange, and determine the role of different environmental variables in driving GHG flux. Trace gas fluxes were determined from the most numerically dominant peatland vegetation types in the region: forested vegetation, forested (short pole) vegetation, Mauritia flexuosa-dominated palm swamp, and mixed palm swamp. Data were collected in both wet and dry seasons over the course of four field campaigns from 2012 to 2014. Diffusive CH4 emissions averaged 36.05 ± 3.09 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1 across the entire dataset, with diffusive CH4 flux varying significantly among vegetation types and between seasons. Net ebullition of CH4 averaged 973.3 ± 161.4 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1 and did not vary significantly among vegetation types or between seasons. Diffusive CH4 flux was greatest for mixed palm swamp (52.0 ± 16.0 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1), followed by M. flexuosa palm swamp (36.7 ± 3.9 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1), forested (short pole) vegetation (31.6 ± 6.6 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1), and forested vegetation (29.8 ± 10.0 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1). Diffusive CH4 flux also showed marked seasonality, with divergent seasonal patterns among ecosystems. Forested vegetation and mixed palm swamp showed significantly higher dry season (47.2 ± 5.4 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1 and 85.5 ± 26.4 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1, respectively) compared to wet season emissions

Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Mianabadi, Ameneh; Shirazi, Pooya; Ghahraman, Bijan; Coenders-Gerrits, A. M. J.; Alizadeh, Amin; Davary, Kamran

2018-02-01

In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the crucial issue for crop production. Identifying the spatial and temporal trends in aridity, especially during the crop-growing season, is important for farmers to manage their agricultural practices. This will become especially relevant when considering climate change projections. To reliably determine the actual trends, the influence of short- and long-term memory should be removed from the trend analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of short- and long-term memory on estimates of trends in two aridity indicators—the inverted De Martonne (ϕ IDM ) and Budyko (ϕ B ) indices. The analysis is done using precipitation and temperature data over Iran for a 50-year period (1966-2015) at three temporal scales: annual, wheat-growing season (October-June), and maize-growing season (May-November). For this purpose, the original and the modified Mann-Kendall tests (i.e., modified by three methods of trend free pre-whitening (TFPT), effective sample size (ESS), and long-term persistence (LTP)) are used to investigate the temporal trends in aridity indices, precipitation, and temperature by taking into account the effect of short- and long-term memory. Precipitation and temperature data were provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The temporal trend analysis showed that aridity increased from 1966 to 2015 at the annual and wheat-growing season scales, which is due to a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in mean temperature at these two timescales. The trend in aridity indices was decreasing in the maize-growing season, since precipitation has an increasing trend for most parts of Iran in that season. The increasing trend in aridity indices is significant in Western Iran, which can be related to the significantly more negative trend in precipitation in the West. This increasing trend in aridity could result in an increasing crop water

Changing Seasonality and the Role of the Shoulder Season - Evidence from Denamrk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Nils Karl

2009-01-01

the issue of the shoulder season in a time series framework. Departing from a discussion of the nature of types of seasonal variation, a test is set up in order to examine the impact of the shoulder season. The test examines the impact on the mean share of hotel nights in the shoulder season months in two...

Short-memory linear processes and econometric applications

CERN Document Server

Mynbaev, Kairat T

2011-01-01

This book serves as a comprehensive source of asymptotic results for econometric models with deterministic exogenous regressors. Such regressors include linear (more generally, piece-wise polynomial) trends, seasonally oscillating functions, and slowly varying functions including logarithmic trends, as well as some specifications of spatial matrices in the theory of spatial models. The book begins with central limit theorems (CLTs) for weighted sums of short memory linear processes. This part contains the analysis of certain operators in Lp spaces and their employment in the derivation of CLTs

Response of needle dark respiration of Pinus koraiensis and Pinus sylvestriformis to elevated CO2 concentrations for four growing seasons' exposure

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHOU YuMei; HAN ShiJie; ZHANG HaiSen; XIN LiHua; ZHENG JunQiang

2007-01-01

The long-term effect of elevated CO2 concentrations on needle dark respiration of two coniferous species-Pinus koraiensis and Pinus sylvestriformis on the Changbai Mountain was investigated using open-top chambers. P. Koraiensis and P. Sylvestriformis were exposed to 700,500μmol·mol-1 CO2 and ambient CO2(approx.350 μmol·mol-1)for four growing seasons. Needle dark respiration was measurd during the second, third and fourth growing seasons' exposure to elevated CO2.The results showed that needle dark respiration rate increased for P. Koraiensis and P. Sylvestriformis grown at elevated CO2 concentrations during the second growing season, could be attributed to the change of carbohydrate and/or nitrogen content of needles. Needle dark respiration of P. Koraiensis was stimulated and that of P. Sylvestriformis was inhibited by elevated CO2 concentrations during the third growing season. Different response of the two tree species to elevated CO2 mainly resulted from the difference in the growth rate. Elevated CO2 concentrations inhibited needle dark respiration of both P. Koraiensis and P. Sylvestriformis during the fourth growing season. There was consistent trend between the short-term effect and the long-term effect of elevated CO2 on needle dark respiration in P. Sylvestriformis during the third growing season by changing measurement CO2 concentrations. However, the short-term effect was different from the long-term effect for P. Koraiensis. Response of dark respiration of P. Koraiensis and P. Sylvestriformis to elevated CO2 concentrations was related to the treatment time of CO2 and the stage of growth and development of plant. The change of dark respiration for the two tree species was determined by the direct effect of CO2 and long-term acclimation. The prediction of the long-term response of needle dark respiration to elevated CO2 concentration based on the short-term response is in dispute.

Hormonal and biochemical profile in elite sportsmen during the preparation season

OpenAIRE

Fatemeh Islami; Abbas Ghanbar Niaki; Aliakbar Sharifiyan; Ramezanali Arabameri

2018-01-01

Concerns have been raised regarding the effects of short time intensive training on adolescent athletes. The aim of the present study was to investigate six weeks of volleyball training on hormonal and biochemical profile in elite high school male volleyball players in Golestan province (Iran) in preparation season to take part in global competitions of champion school in France. Subjects of training group consisted of 12 elite volleyball players in premier league students a...

Small mammal use of native warm-season and non-native cool-season grass forage fields

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan L Klimstra,; Christopher E Moorman,; Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Craig A Harper,

2015-01-01

Recent emphasis has been put on establishing native warm-season grasses for forage production because it is thought native warm-season grasses provide higher quality wildlife habitat than do non-native cool-season grasses. However, it is not clear whether native warm-season grass fields provide better resources for small mammals than currently are available in non-native cool-season grass forage production fields. We developed a hierarchical spatially explicit capture-recapture model to compare abundance of hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus), white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus), and house mice (Mus musculus) among 4 hayed non-native cool-season grass fields, 4 hayed native warm-season grass fields, and 4 native warm-season grass-forb ("wildlife") fields managed for wildlife during 2 summer trapping periods in 2009 and 2010 of the western piedmont of North Carolina, USA. Cotton rat abundance estimates were greater in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields and greater in native warm-season grass fields than in non-native cool-season grass fields. Abundances of white-footed mouse and house mouse populations were lower in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields, but the abundances were not different between the native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields. Lack of cover following haying in non-native cool-season grass and native warm-season grass fields likely was the key factor limiting small mammal abundance, especially cotton rats, in forage fields. Retention of vegetation structure in managed forage production systems, either by alternately resting cool-season and warm-season grass forage fields or by leaving unharvested field borders, should provide refugia for small mammals during haying events.

Dynamic seasonal nitrogen cycling in response to anthropogenic N loading in a tropical catchment, Athi-Galana-Sabaki River, Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Marwick, T. R.; Tamooh, F.; Ogwoka, B.; Teodoru, C.; Borges, A. V.; Darchambeau, F.; Bouillon, S.

2014-01-01

As part of a broader study on the riverine biogeochemistry in the Athi-Galana-Sabaki (A-G-S) River catchment (Kenya), we present data constraining the sources, transit and transformation of multiple nitrogen (N) species as they flow through the A-G-S catchment (~47 000 km2). The data set was obtained in August-September 2011, November 2011, and April-May 2012, covering the dry season, short rain season and long rain season respectively. Release of (largely untreated) wastewater from the city of Nairobi had a profound impact on the biogeochemistry of the upper Athi River, leading to low dissolved oxygen (DO) saturation levels (36-67%), high ammonium (NH4+) concentrations (123-1193 μmol L-1), and high dissolved methane (CH4) concentrations (3765-6729 nmol L-1). Riverine dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN; sum of NH4+ and nitrate (NO3-); nitrite was not measured) concentration at the most upstream site on the Athi River was highest during the dry season (1195 μmol L-1), while DIN concentration was an order of magnitude lower during the short and long rain seasons (212 and 193 μmol L-1, respectively). During the rain seasons, low water residence time led to relatively minimal in-stream N cycling prior to discharge to the ocean, whereas during the dry season we speculate that prolonged residence time creates two differences comparative to wet season, where (1) intense N cycling and removal of DIN is possible in the upper to mid-catchment and leads to significantly lower concentrations at the outlet during the dry season, and (2) as a result this leads to the progressive enrichment of 15N in the particulate N (PN) pool, highlighting the dominance of untreated wastewater as the prevailing source of riverine DIN. The rapid removal of NH4+ in the upper reaches during the dry season was accompanied by a quantitatively similar production of NO3- and nitrous oxide (N2O) downstream, pointing towards strong nitrification over this reach during the dry season. Nitrous oxide

Implications in estimation of indoor thoron levels: season and ventilation effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chauhan, R.P.; Amit Kumar

2015-01-01

The measurement of radon and thoron in dwellings and workplaces are most important for general public health point. Due to short half life of thoron, sometimes its contribution to radiation doses is assumed to be negligible, but their role is important for areas containing higher thorium content in soil and building materials. The thoron levels in dwellings were determined by various SSNTD detector using different cup geometry and dimensions along with bare mode in past at National and International level. These exercises were carried out in dwellings constructed with different building materials, different ventilation rates and seasons. Most of the times the results of radon and thoron levels were found same in spite of having different diffusion length in air due to different half life. This causes increase in uncertainty in measurement of thoron levels in different season and ventilation. Thus the problem of relative variation of thoron levels in different season and ventilation still exist in radiation field. In this work the measurement of indoor thoron levels from some selected dwelling having different ventilation and in different seasons using Pin hole based radon thoron dosimeters are reported. The results show that indoor thoron value is slightly lower in case of dwellings with poor ventilation, which is contrary to the results published in literature. An effort was made to explain the variation of thoron level under different season and ventilation. Some protocol suggestions are also given at the end of this work for future reference to carry out the measurement and mapping of indoor thoron. (author)

High-Resolution Hydrological Sub-Seasonal Forecasting for Water Resources Management Over Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, E. F.; Wanders, N.; Pan, M.; Sheffield, J.; Samaniego, L. E.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Prudhomme, C.; Houghton-Carr, H.

2017-12-01

For decision-making at the sub-seasonal and seasonal time scale, hydrological forecasts with a high temporal and spatial resolution are required by water managers. So far such forecasts have been unavailable due to 1) lack of availability of meteorological seasonal forecasts, 2) coarse temporal resolution of meteorological seasonal forecasts, requiring temporal downscaling, 3) lack of consistency between observations and seasonal forecasts, requiring bias-correction. The EDgE (End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe) project commissioned by the ECMWF (C3S) created a unique dataset of hydrological seasonal forecasts derived from four global climate models (CanCM4, FLOR-B01, ECMF, LFPW) in combination with four global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, VIC, mHM, Noah-MP), resulting in 208 forecasts for any given day. The forecasts provide a daily temporal and 5-km spatial resolution, and are bias corrected against E-OBS meteorological observations. The forecasts are communicated to stakeholders via Sectoral Climate Impact Indicators (SCIIs), created in collaboration with the end-user community of the EDgE project (e.g. the percentage of ensemble realizations above the 10th percentile of monthly river flow, or below the 90th). Results show skillful forecasts for discharge from 3 months to 6 months (latter for N Europe due to snow); for soil moisture up to three months due precipitation forecast skill and short initial condition memory; and for groundwater greater than 6 months (lowest skill in western Europe.) The SCIIs are effective in communicating both forecast skill and uncertainty. Overall the new system provides an unprecedented ensemble for seasonal forecasts with significant skill over Europe to support water management. The consistency in both the GCM forecasts and the LSM parameterization ensures a stable and reliable forecast framework and methodology, even if additional GCMs or LSMs are added in the future.

Effect of short-term versus long-term grassland management and seasonal variation in organic and conventional dairy farming on the composition of bulk tank milk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Adler, S A; Jensen, Søren Krogh; Govasmark, E

2013-01-01

Bulk tank milk from 28 dairy farms was sampled every second month for 2 yr to assess the effects of grassland management, production system and season on milk fatty acid (FA) composition, concentrations of fat-soluble vitamins, Se, and milk sensory quality. Grassland management varied in terms of...... feeding periods had potential health benefits due to FA composition. In contrast, the higher milk-fat proportions of saturated FA in milk from ORG farms may be perceived as negative for human health.......:0 and C18:1 cis-9 associated with higher forage proportion and differences in concentrations of FA in concentrates. Compared with the outdoor-feeding periods, the indoor feeding periods yielded milk fat with higher proportions of most short-chain and medium-chain FA and lower proportions of most C18-FA....... In conclusion, grassland management had minor effects on milk composition, and differences between ORG farms and CON farms may be explained by differences in concentrate intake and concentrate FA concentrations. Milk produced on ORG farms versus CON farms and milk produced during the outdoor versus indoor...

Modeling seasonal water balance based on catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, S.; Zhao, J.; Wang, H.

2017-12-01

This paper develops a seasonal water balance model based on the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality. According to the monthly aridity index, one year is split into wet season and dry season. A seasonal water balance model is developed by analogy to a two-stage reservoir operation model, in which seasonal rainfall infiltration, evapotranspiration and saturation-excess runoff is corresponding to the inflow, release and surplus of the catchment system. Then the optimal hedging between wet season and dry season evapotranspiration is analytically derived with marginal benefit principle. Water budget data sets of 320 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1980 to 2010 are used to evaluate the performance of this model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient for evapotranspiration is higher than 0.5 in 84% of the study catchments; while the runoff is 87%. This paper validates catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality and shows its potential application for seasonal water balance, which is valuable for water resources planning and management.

Ozone induced leaf loss and decreased leaf production of European Holly (Ilex aquifolium L.) over multiple seasons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ranford, Jonathan; Reiling, Kevin

2007-01-01

European Holly (Ilex aquifolium L.) was used to study the impact of one short (28 day) ozone fumigation episode on leaf production, leaf loss and stomatal conductance (g s ), in order to explore potential longer term effects over 3 growing seasons. Young I. aquifolium plants received an episode of either charcoal-filtered air or charcoal-filtered air with 70 nl l -1 O 3 added for 7 h d -1 over a 28 day period from June 15th 1996, then placed into ambient environment, Stoke-on-Trent, U.K. Data were collected per leaf cohort over the next three growing seasons. Ozone exposure significantly increased leaf loss and stomatal conductance and reduced leaf production over all subsequent seasons. Impact of the initial ozone stress was still detected in leaves that had no direct experimental ozone exposure. This study has shown the potential of ozone to introduce long-term phenological perturbations into ecosystems by influencing productivity over a number of seasons. - Ozone significantly alters Ilex aquifolium leaf production and loss over multiple seasons

Wind energy input into the upper ocean over a lengthening open water season

Science.gov (United States)

Mahoney, A. R.; Rolph, R.; Walsh, J. E.

2017-12-01

Wind energy input into the ocean has important consequences for upper ocean mixing, heat and gas exchange, and air-sea momentum transfer. In the Arctic, the open water season is increasing and extending further into the fall storm season, allowing for more wind energy input into the water column. The rate at which the delayed freeze-up timing extends into fall storm season is an important metric to evaluate because the expanding overlap between the open water period and storm season could contribute a significant amount of wind energy into the water column in a relatively short period of time. We have shown that time-integrated wind speeds over open water in the Chukchi Sea and southern Beaufort region have increased since 1979 through 2014. An integrated wind energy input value is calculated for each year in this domain over the open water season, as well as for periods over partial concentrations of ice cover. Spatial variation of this integrated wind energy is shown along the Alaskan coastline, which can have implications for different rates of coastal erosion. Spatial correlation between average wind speed over open water and open water season length from 1979-2014 show positive values in the southern Beaufort, but negative values in the northern Chukchi. This suggests possible differences in the role of the ocean on open water season length depending on region. We speculate that the warm Pacific water outflow plays a more dominant role in extending the open water season length in the northern Chukchi when compared to the southern Beaufort, and might help explain why we can show there is a relatively longer open water season length there. The negative and positive correlations in wind speeds over open water and open water season length might also be explained by oceanic changes tending to operate on longer timescales than the atmosphere. Seasonal timescales of wind events such as regional differences in overlap of the extended open water season due to regional

SPADE H2O measurements and the seasonal cycle of statospheric water vapor

Science.gov (United States)

Hintsa, Eric J.; Weinstock, Elliot M.; Dessler, Andrew E.; Anderson, James G.; Loewenstein, Max; Podolske, James R.

1994-01-01

We present measurements of lower statospheric water vapor obtained during the Stratospheric Phototchemistry, Aerosols and Dynamics Expedition (SPADE) mission with a new high precision, fast response, Lyman-alpha hygrometer. The H2O data show a distinct seasonal cycle. For air that recently entered the statosphere, data collected during the fall show much more water vapor than data from the spring. Fast quasi-horizontal mixing causes compact relationships between water and N2O to be established on relatively short time scales. The measurements are consistent with horizontal mixing times of a few months or less. Vertical mixing appears to cause the seasonal variations in water vapor to propagate up to levels corresponding to air that has been in the stratosphere approximately one year.

Seasonal variation in concentration of radon and thoron at non-uranium mines in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cui Hongxing; Wu Yunyun; Zhang Qingzhao; Shang Bing

2009-01-01

Objective: To study the seasonal variation in concentrations of radon and thoron in non-uranium mine. Methods: Eight kinds of mineral types from 9 non-uranium mines were selected, including copper, gold, aluminium, manganese, antimonium, tungsten, copper-nickel and coal mines in 6 provinces, such as Yunnan, Shandong, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Hunan and Guizhou. LD-P R-T discriminative detectors were used to measure radon and thoron concentrations in underground mines during four seasons in one year. Results: Radon concentrations in underground mines showed a significantly seasonal variation. Radon concentration ranged from 35.5 to 4841 Bq/m 3 in summer, and the average value in four mines exceeded 1000 Bq/m 3 of the control limit for workplace (GB 18871-2002) . In winter, radon concentration ranged from 5 to 1917 Bq/m 3 , only one of them exceeded the control limit. The ratio of radon from summer to winter ranged from 2 to 12. Ventilation was one of the main factors which influenced the seasonal variation of radon. While the thoron concentration in underground mines showed a tendency that it was higher in summer and lower in winter. It was difficult to attain representative values for thoron, due to the influence of location of detectors. The seasonal variation of thoron should be further studied. Conclusions: Seasonal variation for radon and thoron should be taken into account to estimate the effective dose to miners. The values of radon concentration during the short term should be corrected. (authors)

Seasonality, mobility, and livability.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-31

Signature project 4a, Seasonality, Mobility, and Livability investigated the effects of weather, season, built environment, community amenities, attitudes, and demographics on mobility and quality of life (QOL). A four season panel survey exami...

Phytoestrogens and Their Metabolites in Bulk-Tank Milk: Effects of Farm Management and Season

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Adler, Steffen A; Purup, Stig; Hansen-Møller, Jens

2015-01-01

Phytoestrogens have structures similar to endogenous steroids and may induce or inhibit the response of hormone receptors. The objectives of the present study were to compare the effects of long-term vs. short-term grassland management in organic and conventional dairy production systems, compare...... organic and conventional production systems and assess seasonal variation on phytoestrogen concentrations in bulk-tank milk. The concentrations of phytoestrogens were analyzed in bulk-tank milk sampled three times in two subsequent years from 28 dairy farms: Fourteen organic (ORG) dairy farms with either...... short-term or long-term grassland management were paired with 14 conventional (CON) farms with respect to grassland management. Grassland management varied in terms of time since establishment. Short-term grassland management (SG) was defined as establishment or reseeding every fourth year or more often...

Anti-inflammatory effects of pre-seasonal Th1-adjuvant vaccine to Parietaria judaica in asthmatics

Science.gov (United States)

Scichilone, Nicola; Minaldi, Chiara; Santagata, Roberta; Battaglia, Salvatore; Camarda, Gaetana; Bellia, Vincenzo

2011-01-01

Background: The ultra-short course pre-seasonal allergy vaccine, containing appropriate allergoids with the adjuvant monophosphoryl lipid A (MPL), may be effective in treating allergic symptoms. Objective: To explore the timing of the immunological responses to the pre-seasonal allergy vaccine. Methods: Four subcutaneous injections of the active product (Pollinex Quattro) were administered to 20 Parietaria-sensitive intermittent asthmatics (M/F: 12/8; age: 48 ± 10 years; FEV1% predicted: 108% ± 12%) during the 6 weeks prior to the start of the pollen season. Exhaled breath condensate (EBC) was collected immediately before the first and immediately after the last injections (t1 and t2), during the pollen season (t3) and after (t4) the pollen season. EBC was analyzed to determine the levels of pH and 8-isoprostane. Ten Parietaria-sensitive asthmatics served as the untreated control group at t1 and t2. Results: Measured pH levels were 7.64 ± 0.33 at t1, 7.67 ± 0.23 at t2, 7.72 ± 0.34 at t3, and 7.82 ± 0.34 at t4 (P = 0.049 vs baseline). 8-isoprostane levels were significantly lower than baseline at each visit (mean difference from baseline, for t2: −0.77 pg, P = 0.031; for t3: −0.92 pg, P = 0.010; for t4: −0.70 pg, P = 0.048). In the control group, pH levels were 7.73 ± 0.26 at baseline and did not change after 6 weeks (7.79 ± 0.25, P = 0.33). Similarly, the concentrations of 8-isoprostane in the control group were not different from those of the study group at baseline (P = 0.86), and the levels remained unchanged after 6 weeks (P = 0.58). Conclusion: These findings show that the ultra-short course of vaccine adjuvated with MPL acutely reduces the degree of airway inflammation, as expressed by markers of oxidative stress, and suggest that this reduction is maintained during and after the pollen season. PMID:21660177

The Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Managing Energy Resources.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown Weiss, Edith

1982-04-01

Research and interviews with officials of the United States energy industry and a systems analysis of decision making in a natural gas utility lead to the conclusion that seasonal climate forecasts would only have limited value in fine tuning the management of energy supply, even if the forecasts were more reliable and detailed than at present.On the other hand, reliable forecasts could be useful to state and local governments both as a signal to adopt long-term measures to increase the efficiency of energy use and to initiate short-term measures to reduce energy demand in anticipation of a weather-induced energy crisis.To be useful for these purposes, state governments would need better data on energy demand patterns and available energy supplies, staff competent to interpret climate forecasts, and greater incentive to conserve. The use of seasonal climate forecasts is not likely to be constrained by fear of legal action by those claiming to be injured by a possible incorrect forecast.

Sub-seasonal temperature variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere observed with GPS radio occultation

Science.gov (United States)

Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara; Randel, William J.; Kim, Joowan

2017-04-01

We investigate sub-seasonal temperature variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region using daily gridded fields of GPS radio occultation measurements. The unprecedented vertical resolution (from about 100 m in the troposphere to about 1.5 km in the stratosphere) and high accuracy and precision (0.7 K to 1 K between 8 km and 25 km) make these data ideal for characterizing temperature oscillations with short vertical wavelengths. Long-term behavior of sub-seasonal temperature variability is investigated using the entire RO record from January 2002 to December 2014 (13 years of data). Transient sub-seasonal waves including eastward-propagating Kelvin waves (isolated with space-time spectral analysis) dominate large-scale zonal temperature variability in the tropical tropopause region and in the lower stratosphere. Above 20 km, Kelvin waves are strongly modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Enhanced wave activity can be found during the westerly shear phase of the QBO. In the tropical tropopause region, however, sub-seasonal waves are highly transient in time. Several peaks of Kelvin-wave activity coincide with short-term fluctuations in tropospheric deep convection, but other episodes are not evidently related. Also, there are no obvious relationships with zonal winds or stability fields near the tropical tropopause. Further investigations of convective forcing and atmospheric background conditions along the waves' trajectories are needed to better understand sub-seasonal temperature variability near the tropopause. For more details, see Scherllin-Pirscher, B., Randel, W. J., and Kim, J.: Tropical temperature variability and Kelvin-wave activity in the UTLS from GPS RO measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 793-806, doi:10.5194/acp-17-793-2017, 2017. http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/793/2017/acp-17-793-2017.html

Quantifying seasonal velocity at Khumbu Glacier, Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Miles, E.; Quincey, D. J.; Miles, K.; Hubbard, B. P.; Rowan, A. V.

2017-12-01

While the low-gradient debris-covered tongues of many Himalayan glaciers exhibit low surface velocities, quantifying ice flow and its variation through time remains a key challenge for studies aimed at determining the long-term evolution of these glaciers. Recent work has suggested that glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal may show seasonal variability in surface velocity, with ice flow peaking during the summer as monsoon precipitation provides hydrological inputs and thus drives changes in subglacial drainage efficiency. However, satellite and aerial observations of glacier velocity during the monsoon are greatly limited due to cloud cover. Those that do exist do not span the period over which the most dynamic changes occur, and consequently short-term (i.e. daily) changes in flow, as well as the evolution of ice dynamics through the monsoon period, remain poorly understood. In this study, we combine field and remote (satellite image) observations to create a multi-temporal, 3D synthesis of ice deformation rates at Khumbu Glacier, Nepal, focused on the 2017 monsoon period. We first determine net annual and seasonal surface displacements for the whole glacier based on Landsat-8 (OLI) panchromatic data (15m) processed with ImGRAFT. We integrate inclinometer observations from three boreholes drilled by the EverDrill project to determine cumulative deformation at depth, providing a 3D perspective and enabling us to assess the role of basal sliding at each site. We additionally analyze high-frequency on-glacier L1 GNSS data from three sites to characterize variability within surface deformation at sub-seasonal timescales. Finally, each dataset is validated against repeat-dGPS observations at gridded points in the vicinity of the boreholes and GNSS dataloggers. These datasets complement one another to infer thermal regime across the debris-covered ablation area of the glacier, and emphasize the seasonal and spatial variability of ice deformation for glaciers in High

Seasonal Allergies (Hay Fever)

Science.gov (United States)

... Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Seasonal Allergies (Hay Fever) KidsHealth / For Parents / Seasonal Allergies (Hay ... español Alergia estacional (fiebre del heno) About Seasonal Allergies "Achoo!" It's your son's third sneezing fit of ...

Seasonal variability in methane and nitrous oxide fluxes from tropical peatlands in the western Amazon basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. A. Teh

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The Amazon plays a critical role in global atmospheric budgets of methane (CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O. However, while we have a relatively good understanding of the continental-scale flux of these greenhouse gases (GHGs, one of the key gaps in knowledge is the specific contribution of peatland ecosystems to the regional budgets of these GHGs. Here we report CH4 and N2O fluxes from lowland tropical peatlands in the Pastaza–Marañón foreland basin (PMFB in Peru, one of the largest peatland complexes in the Amazon basin. The goal of this research was to quantify the range and magnitude of CH4 and N2O fluxes from this region, assess seasonal trends in trace gas exchange, and determine the role of different environmental variables in driving GHG flux. Trace gas fluxes were determined from the most numerically dominant peatland vegetation types in the region: forested vegetation, forested (short pole vegetation, Mauritia flexuosa-dominated palm swamp, and mixed palm swamp. Data were collected in both wet and dry seasons over the course of four field campaigns from 2012 to 2014. Diffusive CH4 emissions averaged 36.05 ± 3.09 mg CH4–C m−2 day−1 across the entire dataset, with diffusive CH4 flux varying significantly among vegetation types and between seasons. Net ebullition of CH4 averaged 973.3 ± 161.4 mg CH4–C m−2 day−1 and did not vary significantly among vegetation types or between seasons. Diffusive CH4 flux was greatest for mixed palm swamp (52.0 ± 16.0 mg CH4–C m−2 day−1, followed by M. flexuosa palm swamp (36.7 ± 3.9 mg CH4–C m−2 day−1, forested (short pole vegetation (31.6 ± 6.6 mg CH4–C m−2 day−1, and forested vegetation (29.8 ± 10.0 mg CH4–C m−2 day−1. Diffusive CH4 flux also showed marked seasonality, with divergent seasonal patterns among ecosystems. Forested vegetation and mixed palm swamp showed significantly higher

Seasonal reproduction of vampire bats and its relation to seasonality of bovine rabies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lord, R D

1992-04-01

Studies of pregnancy and lactation in vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) in northern Argentina over a 4 yr period showed an inverse relationship between prevalence of pregnancy and lactation, the consequence of birth and onset of lactation, which was correlated with the wet season. The seasonal influx of young susceptibles into the vampire population in the wet season coincided with the well known increase in vampire transmitted rabies in that season.

Short-term Periodization Models: Effects on Strength and Speed-strength Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Hartmann, Hagen; Wirth, Klaus; Keiner, Michael; Mickel, Christoph; Sander, Andre; Szilvas, Elena

2015-10-01

Dividing training objectives into consecutive phases to gain morphological adaptations (hypertrophy phase) and neural adaptations (strength and power phases) is called strength-power periodization (SPP). These phases differ in program variables (volume, intensity, and exercise choice or type) and use stepwise intensity progression and concomitant decreasing volume, converging to peak intensity (peaking phase). Undulating periodization strategies rotate these program variables in a bi-weekly, weekly, or daily fashion. The following review addresses the effects of different short-term periodization models on strength and speed-strength both with subjects of different performance levels and with competitive athletes from different sports who use a particular periodization model during off-season, pre-season, and in-season conditioning. In most periodization studies, it is obvious that the strength endurance sessions are characterized by repetition zones (12-15 repetitions) that induce muscle hypertrophy in persons with a low performance level. Strictly speaking, when examining subjects with a low training level, many periodization studies include mainly hypertrophy sessions interspersed with heavy strength/power sessions. Studies have demonstrated equal or statistically significant higher gains in maximal strength for daily undulating periodization compared with SPP in subjects with a low to moderate performance level. The relatively short intervention period and the lack of concomitant sports conditioning call into question the practical value of these findings for competitive athletes. Possibly owing to differences in mesocycle length, conditioning programs, and program variables, competitive athletes either maintained or improved strength and/or speed-strength performance by integrating daily undulating periodization and SPP during off-season, pre-season and in-season conditioning. In high-performance sports, high-repetition strength training (>15) should be

GloFAS-Seasonal: Operational Seasonal Ensemble River Flow Forecasts at the Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Seasonal hydrological forecasting has potential benefits for many sectors, including agriculture, water resources management and humanitarian aid. At present, no global scale seasonal hydrological forecasting system exists operationally; although smaller scale systems have begun to emerge around the globe over the past decade, a system providing consistent global scale seasonal forecasts would be of great benefit in regions where no other forecasting system exists, and to organisations operating at the global scale, such as disaster relief. We present here a new operational global ensemble seasonal hydrological forecast, currently under development at ECMWF as part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The proposed system, which builds upon the current version of GloFAS, takes the long-range forecasts from the ECMWF System4 ensemble seasonal forecast system (which incorporates the HTESSEL land surface scheme) and uses this runoff as input to the Lisflood routing model, producing a seasonal river flow forecast out to 4 months lead time, for the global river network. The seasonal forecasts will be evaluated using the global river discharge reanalysis, and observations where available, to determine the potential value of the forecasts across the globe. The seasonal forecasts will be presented as a new layer in the GloFAS interface, which will provide a global map of river catchments, indicating whether the catchment-averaged discharge forecast is showing abnormally high or low flows during the 4-month lead time. Each catchment will display the corresponding forecast as an ensemble hydrograph of the weekly-averaged discharge forecast out to 4 months, with percentile thresholds shown for comparison with the discharge climatology. The forecast visualisation is based on a combination of the current medium-range GloFAS forecasts and the operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal outlook, and aims to effectively communicate the nature of a seasonal

Short term load forecasting: two stage modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SOARES, L. J.

2009-06-01

Full Text Available This paper studies the hourly electricity load demand in the area covered by a utility situated in the Seattle, USA, called Puget Sound Power and Light Company. Our proposal is put into proof with the famous dataset from this company. We propose a stochastic model which employs ANN (Artificial Neural Networks to model short-run dynamics and the dependence among adjacent hours. The model proposed treats each hour's load separately as individual single series. This approach avoids modeling the intricate intra-day pattern (load profile displayed by the load, which varies throughout days of the week and seasons. The forecasting performance of the model is evaluated in similiar mode a TLSAR (Two-Level Seasonal Autoregressive model proposed by Soares (2003 using the years of 1995 and 1996 as the holdout sample. Moreover, we conclude that non linearity is present in some series of these data. The model results are analyzed. The experiment shows that our tool can be used to produce load forecasting in tropical climate places.

Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) enhances biomass production in a short-rotation poplar plantation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calfapietra, C.; De Angelis, P.; Scarascia-Mungozza, G.; Gielen, B.; Ceulemans, R.; Galema, A. N. J.; Lukac, M.; Moscatelli, M. C.

2003-01-01

The possible contribution of short rotation cultures (SRC) to carbon sequestration in both current and elevated carbon dioxide concentrations was investigated using the free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) technique. Three poplar species were grown in an SRC plantation for three growing seasons. Above-ground and below-ground biomass increased by 15 to 27 per cent and by 22 to 38 per cent, respectively; light-efficiency also increased as a result. Depletion of inorganic nitrogen from the soil increased after three growing seasons at elevated carbon dioxide levels, but carbon dioxide showed no effect on stem wood density. Stem wood density also differed significantly from species to species. These results confirmed inter-specific differences in biomass production in poplar, and demonstrated that elevated carbon dioxide enhanced biomass productivity and light-use efficiency of a poplar short rotation cultivation ecosystem without changing biomass allocation. The reduction in soil nitrogen raises the possibility of reduced long-term biomass productivity. 60 refs., 4 tabs., 4 figs

Timing of Seasonal Sales.

OpenAIRE

Courty, Pascal; Li, Hao

1999-01-01

We present a model of timing of seasonal sales where stores choose several designs at the beginning of the season without knowing wich one, if any, will be fashionable. Fashionable designs have a chance to fetch high prices in fashion markets while non-fashionable ones must be sold in a discount market. In the beginning of the season, stores charge high prices in the hope of capturing their fashion market. As the end of the season approaches with goods still on the shelves, stores adjust down...

Discrimination of chicken seasonings and beef seasonings using electronic nose and sensory evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Huaixiang; Li, Fenghua; Qin, Lan; Yu, Haiyan; Ma, Xia

2014-11-01

This study examines the feasibility of electronic nose as a method to discriminate chicken and beef seasonings and to predict sensory attributes. Sensory evaluation showed that 8 chicken seasonings and 4 beef seasonings could be well discriminated and classified based on 8 sensory attributes. The sensory attributes including chicken/beef, gamey, garlic, spicy, onion, soy sauce, retention, and overall aroma intensity were generated by a trained evaluation panel. Principal component analysis (PCA), discriminant factor analysis (DFA), and cluster analysis (CA) combined with electronic nose were used to discriminate seasoning samples based on the difference of the sensor response signals of chicken and beef seasonings. The correlation between sensory attributes and electronic nose sensors signal was established using partial least squares regression (PLSR) method. The results showed that the seasoning samples were all correctly classified by the electronic nose combined with PCA, DFA, and CA. The electronic nose gave good prediction results for all the sensory attributes with correlation coefficient (r) higher than 0.8. The work indicated that electronic nose is an effective method for discriminating different seasonings and predicting sensory attributes. © 2014 Institute of Food Technologists®

Genome-wide analysis of positively selected genes in seasonal and non-seasonal breeding species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuhuan Meng

Full Text Available Some mammals breed throughout the year, while others breed only at certain times of year. These differences in reproductive behavior can be explained by evolution. We identified positively-selected genes in two sets of species with different degrees of relatedness including seasonal and non-seasonal breeding species, using branch-site models. After stringent filtering by sum of pairs scoring, we revealed that more genes underwent positive selection in seasonal compared with non-seasonal breeding species. Positively-selected genes were verified by cDNA mapping of the positive sites with the corresponding cDNA sequences. The design of the evolutionary analysis can effectively lower the false-positive rate and thus identify valid positive genes. Validated, positively-selected genes, including CGA, DNAH1, INVS, and CD151, were related to reproductive behaviors such as spermatogenesis and cell proliferation in non-seasonal breeding species. Genes in seasonal breeding species, including THRAP3, TH1L, and CMTM6, may be related to the evolution of sperm and the circadian rhythm system. Identification of these positively-selected genes might help to identify the molecular mechanisms underlying seasonal and non-seasonal reproductive behaviors.

Seasonality and dietary requirements: will eating seasonal food contribute to health and environmental sustainability?

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Macdiarmid, Jennie I

2014-08-01

Eating more seasonal food is one proposal for moving towards more sustainable consumption patterns, based on the assumption that it could reduce the environmental impact of the diet. The aim of the present paper is to consider the implications of eating seasonal food on the different elements of sustainability (i.e. health, economics, society), not just the environment. Seasonality can be defined as either globally seasonal (i.e. produced in the natural production season but consumed anywhere in the world) or locally seasonal (i.e. produced in the natural production season and consumed within the same climatic zone). The environmental, health, economic and societal impact varies by the definition used. Global seasonality has the nutritional benefit of providing a more varied and consistent supply of fresh produce year round, but this increases demand for foods that in turn can have a high environmental cost in the country of production (e.g. water stress, land use change with loss of biodiversity). Greenhouse gas emissions of globally seasonal food are not necessarily higher than food produced locally as it depends more on the production system used than transportation. Eating more seasonal food, however, is only one element of a sustainable diet and should not overshadow some of the potentially more difficult dietary behaviours to change that could have greater environmental and health benefits (e.g. reducing overconsumption or meat consumption). For future guidelines for sustainable diets to be realistic they will need to take into account modern lifestyles, cultural and social expectations in the current food environment.

Seasonal Variation in Epidemiology

Science.gov (United States)

Marrero, Osvaldo

2013-01-01

Seasonality analyses are important in medical research. If the incidence of a disease shows a seasonal pattern, then an environmental factor must be considered in its etiology. We discuss a method for the simultaneous analysis of seasonal variation in multiple groups. The nuts and bolts are explained using simple trigonometry, an elementary…

Seasonality of primary and secondary production in an Arctic river

Science.gov (United States)

Kendrick, M.; Huryn, A.; Deegan, L.

2011-12-01

Rivers and streams that freeze solid for 8-9 months each year provide excellent examples of the extreme seasonality of arctic habitats. The communities of organisms inhabiting these rivers must complete growth and development during summer, resulting in a rapid ramp-up and down of production over the short ice-free period. The effects of recent shifts in the timing of the spring thaw and autumn freeze-up on the duration and pattern of the period of active production are poorly understood. We are currently investigating: 1) the response of the biotic community of the Kuparuk River (Arctic Alaska) to shifts in the seasonality of the ice-free period, and 2) the community response to increases in phosphorous (P) supply anticipated as the volume of the permafrost active-layer increases in response to climate warming. Here algal production supports a 2-tier web of consumers. We tracked primary and secondary production from the spring thaw through mid-August in a reference reach and one receiving low-level P fertilization. Gross primary production/community respiration (GPP/R) ratios for both reaches were increasing through mid-July, with higher GPP/R in response to the P addition. Understanding the degree of synchrony between primary and secondary production in this Arctic river system will enhance further understanding of how shifts in seasonality affect trophic dynamics.

Seasonality of absolute humidity explains seasonality of influenza-like illness in Vietnam.

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Thai, Pham Quang; Choisy, Marc; Duong, Tran Nhu; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Yen, Nguyen Thu; Hien, Nguyen Tran; Weiss, Daniel J; Boni, Maciej F; Horby, Peter

2015-12-01

Experimental and ecological studies have shown the role of climatic factors in driving the epidemiology of influenza. In particular, low absolute humidity (AH) has been shown to increase influenza virus transmissibility and has been identified to explain the onset of epidemics in temperate regions. Here, we aim to study the potential climatic drivers of influenza-like illness (ILI) epidemiology in Vietnam, a tropical country characterized by a high diversity of climates. We specifically focus on quantifying and explaining the seasonality of ILI. We used 18 years (1993-2010) of monthly ILI notifications aggregated by province (52) and monthly climatic variables (minimum, mean, maximum temperatures, absolute and relative humidities, rainfall and hours of sunshine) from 67 weather stations across Vietnam. Seasonalities were quantified from global wavelet spectra, using the value of the power at the period of 1 year as a measure of the intensity of seasonality. The 7 climatic time series were characterized by 534 summary statistics which were entered into a regression tree to identify factors associated with the seasonality of AH. Results were extrapolated to the global scale using simulated climatic times series from the NCEP/NCAR project. The intensity of ILI seasonality in Vietnam is best explained by the intensity of AH seasonality. We find that ILI seasonality is weak in provinces experiencing weak seasonal fluctuations in AH (annual power power >17.6). In Vietnam, AH and ILI are positively correlated. Our results identify a role for AH in driving the epidemiology of ILI in a tropical setting. However, in contrast to temperate regions, high rather than low AH is associated with increased ILI activity. Fluctuation in AH may be the climate factor that underlies and unifies the seasonality of ILI in both temperate and tropical regions. Alternatively, the mechanism of action of AH on disease transmission may be different in cold-dry versus hot-humid settings

Global Seasonality of Rotavirus Disease

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Patel, Manish M.; Pitzer, Virginia; Alonso, Wladimir J.; Vera, David; Lopman, Ben; Tate, Jacqueline; Viboud, Cecile; Parashar, Umesh D.

2012-01-01

Background A substantial number of surveillance studies have documented rotavirus prevalence among children admitted for dehydrating diarrhea. We sought to establish global seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease before widespread vaccine introduction. Methods We reviewed studies of rotavirus detection in children with diarrhea published since 1995. We assessed potential relationships between seasonal prevalence and locality by plotting the average monthly proportion of diarrhea cases positive for rotavirus according to geography, country development, and latitude. We used linear regression to identify variables that were potentially associated with the seasonal intensity of rotavirus. Results Among a total of 99 studies representing all six geographical regions of the world, patterns of year-round disease were more evident in low- and low-middle income countries compared with upper-middle and high income countries where disease was more likely to be seasonal. The level of country development was a stronger predictor of strength of seasonality (P=0.001) than geographical location or climate. However, the observation of distinctly different seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease in some countries with similar geographical location, climate and level of development indicate that a single unifying explanation for variation in seasonality of rotavirus disease is unlikely. Conclusion While no unifying explanation emerged for varying rotavirus seasonality globally, the country income level was somewhat more predictive of the likelihood of having seasonal disease than other factors. Future evaluation of the effect of rotavirus vaccination on seasonal patterns of disease in different settings may help understand factors that drive the global seasonality of rotavirus disease. PMID:23190782

Nonbreeding-Season Drivers of Population Dynamics in Seasonal Migrants: Conservation Parallels Across Taxa

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Anna M. Calvert

2009-12-01

Full Text Available For seasonal migrants, logistical constraints have often limited conservation efforts to improving survival and reproduction during the breeding season only. Yet, mounting empirical evidence suggests that events occurring throughout the migratory life cycle can critically alter the demography of many migrant species. Herein, we build upon recent syntheses of avian migration research to review the role of non-breeding seasons in determining the population dynamics and fitness of diverse migratory taxa, including salmonid fishes, marine mammals, ungulates, sea turtles, butterflies, and numerous bird groups. We discuss several similarities across these varied migrants: (i non-breeding survivorship tends to be a strong driver of population growth; (ii non-breeding events can affect fitness in subsequent seasons through seasonal interactions at individual- and population-levels; (iii broad-scale climatic influences often alter non-breeding resources and migration timing, and may amplify population impacts through covariation among seasonal vital rates; and (iv changes to both stationary and migratory non-breeding habitats can have important consequences for abundance and population trends. Finally, we draw on these patterns to recommend that future conservation research for seasonal migrants will benefit from: (1 more explicit recognition of the important parallels among taxonomically diverse migratory animals; (2 an expanded research perspective focused on quantification of all seasonal vital rates and their interactions; and (3 the development of detailed population projection models that account for complexity and uncertainty in migrant population dynamics.

Is earthquake rate in south Iceland modified by seasonal loading?

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Jonsson, S.; Aoki, Y.; Drouin, V.

2017-12-01

Several temporarily varying processes have the potential of modifying the rate of earthquakes in the south Iceland seismic zone, one of the two most active seismic zones in Iceland. These include solid earth tides, seasonal meteorological effects and influence from passing weather systems, and variations in snow and glacier loads. In this study we investigate the influence these processes may have on crustal stresses and stressing rates in the seismic zone and assess whether they appear to be influencing the earthquake rate. While historical earthquakes in the south Iceland have preferentially occurred in early summer, this tendency is less clear for small earthquakes. The local earthquake catalogue (going back to 1991, magnitude of completeness M6+ earthquakes, which occurred in June 2000 and May 2008. Standard Reasenberg earthquake declustering or more involved model independent stochastic declustering algorithms are not capable of fully eliminating the aftershocks from the catalogue. We therefore inspected the catalogue for the time period before 2000 and it shows limited seasonal tendency in earthquake occurrence. Our preliminary results show no clear correlation between earthquake rates and short-term stressing variations induced from solid earth tides or passing storms. Seasonal meteorological effects also appear to be too small to influence the earthquake activity. Snow and glacier load variations induce significant vertical motions in the area with peak loading occurring in Spring (April-May) and maximum unloading in Fall (Sept.-Oct.). Early summer occurrence of historical earthquakes therefore correlates with early unloading rather than with the peak unloading or unloading rate, which appears to indicate limited influence of this seasonal process on the earthquake activity.

Diagnosing observed characteristics of the wet season across Africa to identify deficiencies in climate model simulations

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Dunning, C.; Black, E.; Allan, R. P.

2017-12-01

The seasonality of rainfall over Africa plays a key role in determining socio-economic impacts for agricultural stakeholders, influences energy supply from hydropower, affects the length of the malaria transmission season and impacts surface water supplies. Hence, failure or delays of these rains can lead to significant socio-economic impacts. Diagnosing and interpreting interannual variability and long-term trends in seasonality, and analysing the physical driving mechanisms, requires a robust definition of African precipitation seasonality, applicable to both observational datasets and model simulations. Here we present a methodology for objectively determining the onset and cessation of multiple wet seasons across the whole of Africa. Compatibility with known physical drivers of African rainfall, consistency with indigenous methods, and generally strong agreement between satellite-based rainfall data sets confirm that the method is capturing the correct seasonal progression of African rainfall. Application of this method to observational datasets reveals that over East Africa cessation of the short rains is 5 days earlier in La Nina years, and the failure of the rains and subsequent humanitarian disaster is associated with shorter as well as weaker rainy seasons over this region. The method is used to examine the representation of the seasonality of African precipitation in CMIP5 model simulations. Overall, atmosphere-only and fully coupled CMIP5 historical simulations represent essential aspects of the seasonal cycle; patterns of seasonal progression of the rainy season are captured, for the most part mean model onset/ cessation dates agree with mean observational dates to within 18 days. However, unlike the atmosphere-only simulations, the coupled simulations do not capture the biannual regime over the southern West African coastline, linked to errors in Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature. Application to both observational and climate model datasets, and

Physiological Responses of Bambara Groundnut (Vigna subterranea L. Verdc) to Short Periods of Water Stress During Different Developmental Stages

OpenAIRE

R. Vurayai; V. Emongor and B. Moseki

2011-01-01

The study was conducted to evaluate the responses of bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea L. Verdc) to short periods of water stress imposed at different growth stages, and the recuperative ability of the species from drought stress. A major problem associated with Bambara groundnut production is its very low yields due to intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal variability in rainfall in semi-arid regions. The response pattern of physiological processes to water stress imposed at different growth ...

Anti-inflammatory effects of pre-seasonal Th1-adjuvant vaccine to Parietaria judaica in asthmatics

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Scichilone N

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Nicola Scichilone, Chiara Minaldi, Roberta Santagata, Salvatore Battaglia, Gaetana Camarda, Vincenzo Bellia Dipartimento Biomedico di Medicina Interna e Specialistica (Di.Bi.M.I.S., Sezione di Pneumologia, University of Palermo, Palermo, ItalyBackground: The ultra-short course pre-seasonal allergy vaccine, containing appropriate allergoids with the adjuvant monophosphoryl lipid A (MPL, may be effective in treating allergic symptoms. Objective: To explore the timing of the immunological responses to the pre-seasonal allergy vaccine.Methods: Four subcutaneous injections of the active product (Pollinex Quattro were administered to 20 Parietaria-sensitive intermittent asthmatics (M/F: 12/8; age: 48 ± 10 years; FEV1% predicted: 108% ± 12% during the 6 weeks prior to the start of the pollen season. Exhaled breath condensate (EBC was collected immediately before the first and immediately after the last injections (t1 and t2, during the pollen season (t3 and after (t4 the pollen season. EBC was analyzed to determine the levels of pH and 8-isoprostane. Ten Parietaria-sensitive asthmatics served as the untreated control group at t1 and t2.Results: Measured pH levels were 7.64 ± 0.33 at t1, 7.67 ± 0.23 at t2, 7.72 ± 0.34 at t3, and 7.82 ± 0.34 at t4 (P = 0.049 vs baseline. 8-isoprostane levels were significantly lower than baseline at each visit (mean difference from baseline, for t2: —0.77 pg, P = 0.031; for t3: —0.92 pg, P = 0.010; for t4: —0.70 pg, P = 0.048. In the control group, pH levels were 7.73 ± 0.26 at baseline and did not change after 6 weeks (7.79 ± 0.25, P = 0.33. Similarly, the concentrations of 8-isoprostane in the control group were not different from those of the study group at baseline (P = 0.86, and the levels remained unchanged after 6 weeks (P = 0.58.Conclusion: These findings show that the ultra-short course of vaccine adjuvated with MPL acutely reduces the degree of airway inflammation, as expressed by markers of

An overview of seasonal affective disorder and its treatment options.

Science.gov (United States)

Howland, Robert H

2009-12-01

Seasonal affective disorder (SAD) is defined as a history of major depressive episodes that recur regularly at a particular time of year. Depending on the diagnostic instruments and criteria available, the reported prevalence (1%-10%) varies. Neurotransmitter abnormalities have been implicated in the pathophysiology, but they do not necessarily explain the seasonal pattern or the known chronobiological abnormalities in SAD compared with nonseasonal depression. Circadian rhythm abnormalies have been hypothesized to account for these aspects of SAD, and they provide a rationale for the therapeutic use of light therapy. Family history, twin, and molecular genetics studies suggest that hereditary factors are also involved. Light therapy and antidepressant medication are effective treatment options, with limited evidence for the efficacy of psychotherapy. Some studies demonstrate that narrow-band short wavelength "blue" light, naturalistic dawn simulation, and high-density negative air ionization are effective. Patients should be informed of the benefits of diet and exercise. Light therapy should be clinically monitored in the same manner, as it is done for other antidepressant treatments.

Coach mid-season replacement and team performance in professional soccer.

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Lago-Peñas, Carlos

2011-06-01

The coaching carousel or turnover is an extreme but frequently occurring phenomenon in soccer. Among the reasons for firing a coach, the most common is the existence of a shock-effect: a new coach would be able to motivate the players better and therefore to improve results. Using data from the Spanish Soccer League during the seasons from 1997-1998 to 2006-2007, this paper investigates the relationship between team performance and coach change over time. The empirical analysis shows that the shock effect of a turnover has a positive impact on team performance in the short term. Results reveal no impact of coach turnover in the long term. The favourable short-term impact on team performance of a coach turnover is followed by continued gradual worsening of results. The turnover effect is nonexistent when the comparison between the new coach and the old coach is done over 10, 15 or 20 matches before and after termination.

Frequent and seasonally variable sublethal anthrax infections are accompanied by short-lived immunity in an endemic system.

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Cizauskas, Carrie A; Bellan, Steven E; Turner, Wendy C; Vance, Russell E; Getz, Wayne M

2014-09-01

Few studies have examined host-pathogen interactions in wildlife from an immunological perspective, particularly in the context of seasonal and longitudinal dynamics. In addition, though most ecological immunology studies employ serological antibody assays, endpoint titre determination is usually based on subjective criteria and needs to be made more objective. Despite the fact that anthrax is an ancient and emerging zoonotic infectious disease found world-wide, its natural ecology is not well understood. In particular, little is known about the adaptive immune responses of wild herbivore hosts against Bacillus anthracis. Working in the natural anthrax system of Etosha National Park, Namibia, we collected 154 serum samples from plains zebra (Equus quagga), 21 from springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis) and 45 from African elephants (Loxodonta africana) over 2-3 years, resampling individuals when possible for seasonal and longitudinal comparisons. We used enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays to measure anti-anthrax antibody titres and developed three increasingly conservative models to determine endpoint titres with more rigourous, objective mensuration. Between 52 and 87% of zebra, 0-15% of springbok and 3-52% of elephants had measurable anti-anthrax antibody titres, depending on the model used. While the ability of elephants and springbok to mount anti-anthrax adaptive immune responses is still equivocal, our results indicate that zebra in ENP often survive sublethal anthrax infections, encounter most B. anthracis in the wet season and can partially booster their immunity to B. anthracis. Thus, rather than being solely a lethal disease, anthrax often occurs as a sublethal infection in some susceptible hosts. Though we found that adaptive immunity to anthrax wanes rapidly, subsequent and frequent sublethal B. anthracis infections cause maturation of anti-anthrax immunity. By triggering host immune responses, these common sublethal infections may act as

Short-term performance effects of three different low-volume strength-training programmes in college male soccer players

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brito, João; Vasconcellos, Fabrício; Oliveira, José

2014-01-01

This study aimed to analyse the short-term performance effects of three in-season low-volume strength-training programmes in college male soccer players. Fifty-seven male college soccer players (age: 20.31.6 years) were randomly assigned to a resistance-training group (n=12), plyometric training.......001) compared with the control group. No differences were observed in 5-m sprint and agility performances (p>0.05). Overall, the results suggest that in-season low-volume strength training is adequate for developing strength and speed in soccer players....

The European Market for Seasonal Gas Storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahan, A.

2006-02-01

European demand for gas will grow in the years to come. Simultaneously, gas production in Europe will decrease and imported gas will be needed to replace indigenous production. Gas demand is not constant during the year. There are variations in demand on different timescales ranging from seasonal to hourly. Variations in demand are characterised by two main parameters: working volume and deliverability. Working volume - the amount of gas that can be supplied above the baseload production volume during a long (cold) period- is primarily needed to cope with the summer-winter pattern of gas consumption. Most of the summer-winter pattern comes from the temperature sensitive gas consumption by households and service industries. Gas usage by industry and the power sector are more evenly spread throughout the year and need less working volume. Deliverability - the amount of gas per hour that can be generated on a (very) cold day above the baseload capacity - is the ability to produce large volumes during short periods, e.g. for extremely cold days, or during peak periods during a day. In this paper we argue that a large amount of additional working volume will be required over the coming years. First, flexible European production will be replaced by long-distance import gas, and second, the gas market is expected to grow further. Todays market appears focus mainly on cavems for storage volume. Cavems have little working volume but are ideal for trading purposes. Consequently, Europe may be facing a deficit in working volume, i.e. the ability to cope with seasonal changes in demand. This paper aims to widen the discussion of this matter and give rise to this concern by setting out a broad analysis, exploring the market drivers for seasonal storage and identifying the public interest issues for this market. Chapter 2 gives an overview of demand for and supply characteristics of gas flexibility. Chapter 3 describes the role of gas storage facilities in the gas market

Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought.

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von Uexkull, Nina; Croicu, Mihai; Fjelde, Hanne; Buhaug, Halvard

2016-11-01

To date, the research community has failed to reach a consensus on the nature and significance of the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict. We argue that progress has been hampered by insufficient attention paid to the context in which droughts and other climatic extremes may increase the risk of violent mobilization. Addressing this shortcoming, this study presents an actor-oriented analysis of the drought-conflict relationship, focusing specifically on politically relevant ethnic groups and their sensitivity to growing-season drought under various political and socioeconomic contexts. To this end, we draw on new conflict event data that cover Asia and Africa, 1989-2014, updated spatial ethnic settlement data, and remote sensing data on agricultural land use. Our procedure allows quantifying, for each ethnic group, drought conditions during the growing season of the locally dominant crop. A comprehensive set of multilevel mixed effects models that account for the groups' livelihood, economic, and political vulnerabilities reveals that a drought under most conditions has little effect on the short-term risk that a group challenges the state by military means. However, for agriculturally dependent groups as well as politically excluded groups in very poor countries, a local drought is found to increase the likelihood of sustained violence. We interpret this as evidence of the reciprocal relationship between drought and conflict, whereby each phenomenon makes a group more vulnerable to the other.

Seasonal and Interannual Variation in Energy Balance in the Semiarid Grassland Area of China

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Qun’ou Jiang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Near surface energy budget changes have been proved to be induced by the land cover conversion through changing the surface physical properties, which can further impact the regional climate change. This study applies the DLS model to simulate the land cover under the business as usual (BAU scenario and then analyses the seasonal and interannual variation of energy balance in the semiarid grassland area of China based on the simulated land cover with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model. The results indicate that the grassland will show a growing trend under the BAU scenario. Downward long wave radiation and downward short wave radiation will all have small-scale increase with time going by, while the surface net radiation will decrease from 2030 to 2050. However, there is obvious seasonal variation. Summer has the highest downward long wave radiation and downward short wave radiation, followed by spring and autumn. The lowest are in winter. As for the net surface radiation, there is obvious decrease in southeast of study area due to returning cropland to grassland. Those research conclusions can offer valuable information for the land use planning and relieving the effects of land cover change on climate change at the semiarid grassland area.

Seasonal streamflow forecast with machine learning and teleconnection indices in the context non-stationary climate

Science.gov (United States)

Haguma, D.; Leconte, R.

2017-12-01

Spatial and temporal water resources variability are associated with large-scale pressure and circulation anomalies known as teleconnections that influence the pattern of the atmospheric circulation. Teleconnection indices have been used successfully to forecast streamflow in short term. However, in some watersheds, classical methods cannot establish relationships between seasonal streamflow and teleconnection indices because of weak correlation. In this study, machine learning algorithms have been applied for seasonal streamflow forecast using teleconnection indices. Machine learning offers an alternative to classical methods to address the non-linear relationship between streamflow and teleconnection indices the context non-stationary climate. Two machine learning algorithms, random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), with teleconnection indices associated with North American climatology, have been used to forecast inflows for one and two leading seasons for the Romaine River and Manicouagan River watersheds, located in Quebec, Canada. The indices are Pacific-North America (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The results showed that the machine learning algorithms have an important predictive power for seasonal streamflow for one and two leading seasons. The RF performed better for training and SVM generally have better results with high predictive capability for testing. The RF which is an ensemble method, allowed to assess the uncertainty of the forecast. The integration of teleconnection indices responds to the seasonal forecast of streamflow in the conditions of the non-stationarity the climate, although the teleconnection indices have a weak correlation with streamflow.

Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Generalized Pareto Distribution to Estimate Extreme Significant Wave Height in The Banda Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Nursamsiah; Nugroho Sugianto, Denny; Suprijanto, Jusup; Munasik; Yulianto, Bambang

2018-02-01

The information of extreme wave height return level was required for maritime planning and management. The recommendation methods in analyzing extreme wave were better distributed by Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Seasonal variation was often considered in the extreme wave model. This research aims to identify the best model of GPD by considering a seasonal variation of the extreme wave. By using percentile 95 % as the threshold of extreme significant wave height, the seasonal GPD and non-seasonal GPD fitted. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to identify the goodness of fit of the GPD model. The return value from seasonal and non-seasonal GPD was compared with the definition of return value as criteria. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test result shows that GPD fits data very well both seasonal and non-seasonal model. The seasonal return value gives better information about the wave height characteristics.

Production physiology and morphology of Populus species and their hybrids grown under short rotation. III. Seasonal carbon allocation patterns from branches

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scarascia-Mugnozza, G.E.; Hinckley, T.M.; Stettler, R.F. [Washington Univ., College of Forest Resources, Seattle, WA (United States)

1999-09-01

A study was carried out to compare highly productive cones, in the Pacific Northwest, in terms of contrasting growth and morphology. The objective of the study was to determine seasonal differences in carbon allocation patterns among 1- and 2-year old trees of Populus deltoides Bartr, and 2 of their interspecific hybrids. The study examined if there are different patterns of carbon allocation associated with the more productive poplar clones, how these patterns vary over the course of the growing season and from the first and the second year, if sylleptic branches vary from proleptic branches in their carbon allocation patterns, if there are the translocation patterns within branches and the degree of branch autonomy that exists with sylleptic and proleptic branches and if these patterns vary during the growing season. Previous findings on general patterns of carbon allocation in poplar clones were confirmed, and new dimensions were introduced regarding differences among branch types and clones. In the first year, carbon export from sylleptic branches increased over the growing season, and they export primarily toward the lower stem and roots. In the second year, important differences in translocation efficiency occurred among branch types with the sylleptic branches contributing more than proleptic branches, on a per unit mass basis, to the growth of the tree. Transport patterns, within branches and among branches of different order, were similar to those in the main stem, with phenology playing an important role in controlling the sink activity of the apical portion of the growing axis. Exchange of photosynthates between adjacent branches of the same order or between branches and main stem leaves are minimal, supporting an hypothesis of branch autonomy. 29 refs., 5 tabs., 4 figs.

Seasonal Variation in Group Size Is Related to Seasonal Variation in Neuropeptide Receptor Density.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Leah C; Goodson, James L; Kingsbury, Marcy A

2016-01-01

In many species, seasonal variation in grouping behavior is widespread, with shifts towards territoriality in the breeding season and grouping in the winter. Compared to the hormonal and neural mechanisms of seasonal territorial aggression, the mechanisms that promote seasonal grouping have received little attention. We collected brains in spring and winter from wild-caught males of two species of emberizid sparrows that seasonally flock (the field sparrow, Spizella pusilla, and the dark-eyed junco, Junco hyemalis) and two species that do not seasonally flock (the song sparrow, Melospiza melodia, and the eastern towhee, Pipilo erythrophthalmus). We used receptor autoradiography to quantify seasonal plasticity in available binding sites for three neuropeptides known to influence social behavior. We examined binding sites for 125I-vasoactive intestinal polypeptide (VIP), 125I-sauvagine (SG, a ligand for corticotropin-releasing hormone receptors) and 125I-ornithine vasotocin analog (OVTA, a ligand for the VT3 nonapeptide). For all species and ligands, brain areas that exhibited a seasonal pattern in binding density were characterized by a winter increase. Compared to nonflocking species, seasonally flocking species showed different binding patterns in multiple brain areas. Furthermore, we found that winter flocking was associated with elevated winter 125I-VIP binding density in the medial amygdala, as well as 125I-VIP and 125I-OVTA binding density in the rostral arcopallium. While the functional significance of the avian rostral arcopallium is unclear, it may incorporate parts of the pallial amygdala. Our results point to this previously undescribed area as a likely hot spot of social modulation. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Seasonal Variations in Color Preference.

Science.gov (United States)

Schloss, Karen B; Nelson, Rolf; Parker, Laura; Heck, Isobel A; Palmer, Stephen E

2017-08-01

We investigated how color preferences vary according to season and whether those changes could be explained by the ecological valence theory (EVT). To do so, we assessed the same participants' preferences for the same colors during fall, winter, spring, and summer in the northeastern United States, where there are large seasonal changes in environmental colors. Seasonal differences were most pronounced between fall and the other three seasons. Participants liked fall-associated dark-warm colors-for example, dark-red, dark-orange (brown), dark-yellow (olive), and dark-chartreuse-more during fall than other seasons. The EVT could explain these changes with a modified version of Palmer and Schloss' (2010) weighted affective valence estimate (WAVE) procedure that added an activation term to the WAVE equation. The results indicate that color preferences change according to season, as color-associated objects become more/less activated in the observer. These seasonal changes in color preferences could not be characterized by overall shifts in weights along cone-contrast axes. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Short-term Effect of Nitrogen Addition on Microbial and Root Respiration in an Alpine Spruce Ecosystem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Wang1

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Soil respiration plays an important role in the carbon (C flux of the global C cycle and is greatly affected by nitrogen (N additions in the form of deposition or fertilization. The aim of this study was to investigate the response of total soil respiration (Rs, microbial respiration (Rm, and root respiration (Rr to short-term N addition and the potential mechanisms of short-term N deposition influencing soil respiration in an alpine spruce ecosystem. Four N treatment levels (0, 50, 100, 150 kg N ha-1 year-1 were applied monthly in a Picea balfouriana (commonly known as "alpine spruce" plantation beginning in November 2013 and Rs, Rm, and Rr were measured from May to November 2014. The results show that simulated N depositions stimulate Rs, Rm, and Rr and the beneficial effects decreased along N gradients from hourly to seasonal scales. The seasonal temperature coefficients (Q10 of Rs, Rm, and Rr ranged from 2.50 to 3.8, 2.99 to 4.63, and 1.86 to 2.96, while the diurnal Q10 ranged from 1.71 to 2.04, 1.89 to 2.32, 1.42 to 1.75, and there was a similar trend with soil respiration along N gradients. In addition, Rr showed significant positive correlation with fine root biomass, and Rm was likely driven by soil enzyme related to the microbial C cycle in the growing season. Our results indicate that short-term N addition stimulated fine root biomass and soil enzymatic activity to bring about a potential increase in soil respiration rates under low-N addition, while the opposite occurred under high-N addition.

Seasonal difference in brain serotonin transporter binding predicts symptom severity in patients with seasonal affective disorder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mc Mahon, Brenda; Andersen, Sofie B.; Madsen, Martin K.

2016-01-01

controls with low seasonality scores and 17 patients diagnosed with seasonal affective disorder were scanned in both summer and winter to investigate differences in cerebral serotonin transporter binding across groups and across seasons. The two groups had similar cerebral serotonin transporter binding...... between summer and winter (Psex-(P = 0.02) and genotype-(P = 0.04) dependent. In the patients with seasonal affective disorder, the seasonal change in serotonin transporter binding was positively associated with change in depressive symptom...

Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-seasonal Low-Level Circulation Predictability and its Association with Rainfall in a Coupled Model

KAUST Repository

Sagalgile, Archana P.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Srinivas, G.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Attada, Raju; Singh, Prem

2017-01-01

This study investigates predictability of the sub-seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and its relation with rainfall variations in the coupled model National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Hindcasts based on CFSv2 for the period of 1982–2009 are used for detailed analysis. Though the model is capable of predicting the seasonal ISM rainfall at long lead months, the predication skill of the model for sub-seasonal rainfall in general is poor for short and long lead except for September. Rainfall over the ISM region/Indian Subcontinent is highly correlated with the low-level jet (LLJ) or Somali jet both in the observations and the model. The model displays improved skill in predicting LLJ as compared to precipitation in seasonal mean and September, whereas the model skill is poor for June and August. Detailed analysis reveals that the model LLJ variations throughout the season are overdependent on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) unlike in the observations. This is mainly responsible for the model’s low skill in predicting LLJ especially in July and August, which is the primary cause for the poor rainfall skill. Though LLJ is weak in September, the model skill is reasonably good because of its ENSO dependency both in model and the observations and which is contributed to the seasonal mean skill. Thus, to improve the skill of seasonal mean monsoon forecast, it is essential to improve the skill of individual months/sub-seasonal circulation and rainfall skill.

Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-seasonal Low-Level Circulation Predictability and its Association with Rainfall in a Coupled Model

KAUST Repository

Sagalgile, Archana P.

2017-10-26

This study investigates predictability of the sub-seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and its relation with rainfall variations in the coupled model National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Hindcasts based on CFSv2 for the period of 1982–2009 are used for detailed analysis. Though the model is capable of predicting the seasonal ISM rainfall at long lead months, the predication skill of the model for sub-seasonal rainfall in general is poor for short and long lead except for September. Rainfall over the ISM region/Indian Subcontinent is highly correlated with the low-level jet (LLJ) or Somali jet both in the observations and the model. The model displays improved skill in predicting LLJ as compared to precipitation in seasonal mean and September, whereas the model skill is poor for June and August. Detailed analysis reveals that the model LLJ variations throughout the season are overdependent on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) unlike in the observations. This is mainly responsible for the model’s low skill in predicting LLJ especially in July and August, which is the primary cause for the poor rainfall skill. Though LLJ is weak in September, the model skill is reasonably good because of its ENSO dependency both in model and the observations and which is contributed to the seasonal mean skill. Thus, to improve the skill of seasonal mean monsoon forecast, it is essential to improve the skill of individual months/sub-seasonal circulation and rainfall skill.

8000 years of caribou and human seasonal migration in the Canadian Barrenlands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bryan C. Gordon

2005-05-01

Full Text Available Caribou (Rangifer tarandus are the common thread running through thousands of years of cultural evolution in northern mainland Canada. From the earliest Indian traditions, through the Pre-Dorset and Dene cultural evolution, up to historic times, the vast herds of migratory Barrenland caribou provided food, clothing and shelter. They determined the human cycle -- seasonal migrations, seasonal levels of fitness, and season of procreation. Caribou even permeated Dene mythology and supernatural beliefs. Within the Beverly caribou (R. t. groenlandicus range in the Canadian Barrenlands, investigation of 1002 archaeological sites points to long-term stability of human band and caribou herd interaction. Caribou bone and hunting tools occur in multiple levels, the earliest to 8000 years, based on 131 radiocarbon dates. Through time, specific hunting bands aligned with specific migratory barren-ground caribou herds. This relationship helps to explain observed archaeological and ethnological differences within different caribou ranges for these hunting bands. In general, biological evidence concurs with ethnographic and archaeological evidence. But short-term variations in migration routes between northern boreal forest, taiga and tundra may have followed changes in herd size and environment, e.g., unfavorable snow and ice conditions or forest fires. However, such influences were not discernible archaeologically.

Short and long term variation in ultraviolet radiation and multiple sclerosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Menni, Cristina; Lowell, Walter E; Bentzen, Joan

2012-01-01

We examined the role of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in persons diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS) in four different populations, Italians, Danish, White and African Americans. We tested whether variation in UVR as determined by seasons (short term variation) and solar cycles (long term...... to study the pattern of month of birth distribution in patients with MS comparing with general population data. T-tests were employed to study solar cycles association with lifespan. A surplus of births was observed in June for White Americans. A decrease of births in October and November, though...... not significant after multiple testing correction, was observed in the three populations. In White American with MS overall, males and females, we found that solar cycle is associated with lifespan. We found that season and solar cycles have some role in MS susceptibility and life duration. However...

Short Term CO2 Enrichment Increases Carbon Sequestration of Air-Exposed Intertidal Communities of a Coastal Lagoon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amrit K. Mishra

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In situ production responses of air-exposed intertidal communities under CO2 enrichment are reported here for the first time. We assessed the short-term effects of CO2 on the light responses of the net community production (NCP and community respiration (CR of intertidal Z. noltei and unvegetated sediment communities of Ria Formosa lagoon, when exposed to air. NCP and CR were measured in situ in summer and winter, under present and CO2 enriched conditions using benthic chambers. Within chamber CO2 evolution measurements were carried out by a series of short-term incubations (30 min using an infra-red gas analyser. Liner regression models fitted to the NCP-irradiance responses were used to estimate the seasonal budgets of air-exposed, intertidal production as determined by the daily and seasonal variation of incident photosynthetic active radiation. High CO2 resulted in higher CO2 sequestration by both communities in both summer and winter seasons. Lower respiration rates of both communities under high CO2 further contributed to a potential negative climate feedback, except in winter when the CR of sediment community was higher. The light compensation points (LCP (light intensity where production equals respiration of Z. noltei and sediment communities also decreased under CO2 enriched conditions in both seasons. The seasonal community production of Z. noltei was 115.54 ± 7.58 g C m−2 season−1 in summer and 29.45 ± 4.04 g C m−2 season−1 in winter and of unvegetated sediment was 91.28 ± 6.32 g C m−2 season−1 in summer and 25.83 ± 4.01 g C m−2 season−1 in winter under CO2 enriched conditions. Future CO2 conditions may increase air-exposed seagrass production by about 1.5-fold and unvegetated sediments by about 1.2-fold.

Particle mixing processes of Chernobyl fallout in deep Norwegian Sea sediments: Evidence for seasonal effects

Science.gov (United States)

Balzer, W.

1996-09-01

A 1430 m deep station in the Norwegian Sea (Voering Plateau) was occupied five times between May 1986 and February 1987 to investigate the seasonal variation in sediment mixing rates. Cherbnbyl-derived radiocesium, identified by its high proportion of short-lived 134Cs, was used as a tracer for mixing. Most of the nuclide input arrived at the sediment within a narrow time span in June/early July during the beginning of the seasonal biogenic sedimentation pulse. Measured 137Cs profiles in the sediment over time were compared with modelled distributions calculated with a finite difference scheme. The input function of radiocesium to the sea floor was evaluated from the increase of the total inventory with time. Time-invariant mixing coefficients did not provide reasonable fits to either summer or winter distributions. The best fit was obtained with a rate of mixing proportional to the radiocesium input flux, with an average enhancement factor of 6.6 during the two summer months. It appears that the benthic macrofauna are more active during the food supply season and rapidly ingest/bury freshly sedimented materials.

Chemopreventive Potential of Powdered Red Wine Pomace Seasonings against Colorectal Cancer in HT-29 Cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Del Pino-García, Raquel; Rivero-Pérez, María D; González-SanJosé, María L; Ortega-Heras, Miriam; García Lomillo, Javier; Muñiz, Pilar

2017-01-11

This study evaluates the antiproliferative and antigenotoxic actions of powdered red wine pomace seasonings (Sk-S, seedless; W-S, whole; Sd-S, seeds). In vitro gastrointestinal digested and colonic fermented fractions of the seasonings were used as cell treatments. Phenolic acids from Sk-S showed the highest bioaccessibility in the small intestine, whereas polyphenols contained in Sd-S might be the most fermentable in the colon. Dietary fiber from Sk-S was the best substrate for short chain fatty acids production by gut microbiota. Colon cancerous (HT-29) cell viability was inhibited by 50% (IC 50 values) at treatment concentrations ranging from 845 (Sk-S) to 1085 (Sd-S) μg/mL prior digestion, but all digested fractions exhibited similar antiproliferative activities (mean IC 50 = 814 μg/mL). Oxidative DNA damage in cells was also attenuated by the treatments (200 μg/mL, 24 h preincubation), with all colonic fermented fractions displaying similar genoprotective action. These results suggest the potential of red wine pomace seasonings as chemopreventive agents in colorectal cancer.

Seasonality of Suicidal Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, Jong-Min; Okusaga, Olaoluwa; Postolache, Teodor T.

2012-01-01

A seasonal suicide peak in spring is highly replicated, but its specific cause is unknown. We reviewed the literature on suicide risk factors which can be associated with seasonal variation of suicide rates, assessing published articles from 1979 to 2011. Such risk factors include environmental determinants, including physical, chemical, and biological factors. We also summarized the influence of potential demographic and clinical characteristics such as age, gender, month of birth, socioeconomic status, methods of prior suicide attempt, and comorbid psychiatric and medical diseases. Comprehensive evaluation of risk factors which could be linked to the seasonal variation in suicide is important, not only to identify the major driving force for the seasonality of suicide, but also could lead to better suicide prevention in general. PMID:22470308

Wind effects on the migration routes of trans-Saharan soaring raptors: geographical, seasonal, and interspecific variation

Science.gov (United States)

Vidal-Mateo, Javier; Mellone, Ugo; López-López, Pascual; La Puente, Javier De; García-Ripollés, Clara; Bermejo, Ana; Urios, Vicente

2016-01-01

Abstract Wind is among the most important environmental factors shaping birds’ migration patterns. Birds must deal with the displacement caused by crosswinds and their behavior can vary according to different factors such as flight mode, migratory season, experience, and distance to goal areas. Here we analyze the relationship between wind and migratory movements of three raptor species which migrate by soaring–gliding flight: Egyptian vulture Neophron percnopterus, booted eagle Aquila pennata, and short-toed snake eagle Circaetus gallicus. We analyzed daily migratory segments (i.e., the path joining consecutive roosting locations) using data recorded by GPS satellite telemetry. Daily movements of Egyptian vultures and booted eagles were significantly affected by tailwinds during both autumn and spring migrations. In contrast, daily movements of short-toed eagles were only significantly affected by tailwinds during autumn migration. The effect of crosswinds was significant in all cases. Interestingly, Egyptian vultures and booted eagles showed latitudinal differences in their behavior: both species compensated more frequently at the onset of autumn migration and, at the end of the season when reaching their wintering areas, the proportion of drift segments was higher. In contrast, there was a higher drift at the onset of spring migration and a higher compensation at the end. Our results highlight the effect of wind patterns on the migratory routes of soaring raptors, with different outcomes in relation to species, season, and latitude, ultimately shaping the loop migration patterns that current tracking techniques are showing to be widespread in many long distance migrants. PMID:29491895

The ratio of long-lived to short-lived radon-222 progeny concentrations in ground-level air

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoetzl, H.; Winkler, R.

1996-01-01

The ratio of 210 Pb air concentration to the short-lived radon ( 222 Rn) decay products concentration at ground level was investigated at a semi-rural location 10 km north of Munich, south Germany, for a period of 11 years (1982-1992). The average ratio from 132 monthly mean values has been found to be (7.5±2.2) x 10 -5 (arithmetic mean±S.D.). While the time series of the short-lived radon daughter concentration exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern with maxima mostly in October of each year, the course of 210 Pb air concentration is characterized by high values from October through February. Consequently, high ratios of 210 Pb to short-lived decay product concentration are often observed in the winter months of December-February. To study the influence of meteorological conditions on this behaviour, 210 Pb and 214 Pb concentrations were measured on a short-term basis with sampling intervals of 2-3 days from October 1991 to November 1992. The air concentrations obtained within those intervals were then correlated with actual meteorological parameters. On the base of this investigation the seasonal behaviour can essentially be explained by the more frequent inversion weather conditions in winter than in the summer months. At the same location, the average ratio of 210 Po to 210 Pb concentration in ground level air has been found to be 0.079 from 459 weakly mean values between 1976 and 1985. Hence, the corresponding average ratios of the short-lived radon daughters (EEC) to 210 Pb and 210 Po, were 1:7.5x10 -5 and 1:0.6 x 10 -5 , respectively

Reproductive pattern of local sheep in Egypt with special reference to the effects of breed, season and management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rakha, A.M.; Essawy, S.A.; El Azab, A.I.

1988-01-01

The effect of season on ovulation has been monitored in two local breeds of Egyptian ewes - the Barki (desert type), and the Rahmani (fat tailed Nile valley breed), by sequentially measuring cyclic changes in plasma progesterone concentration throughout a period of one year in the absence of any possible ram effect. The modal length of the ovulatory cycle was 17-18 days for both breeds, with the progesterone concentration peaking around day 11. No effect of season on progesterone concentration was apparent for the Barki breed but in the Rahmani, progesterone values were lower (P < 0.05) during the summer than during the autumn months. While the Barki have a restricted breeding season from June to November, the Rahmani have only a short period of anovulation within April. Thirty-three per cent of the Rahmani breed were identified as having cycled throughout the year. (author). 9 refs, 4 figs

Seasonal variations of U.S. mortality rates: Roles of solar ultraviolet-B doses, vitamin D, gene exp ression, and infections.

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, William B; Bhattoa, Harjit Pal; Boucher, Barbara J

2017-10-01

Death rates in the U.S. show a pronounced seasonality. The broad seasonal variation shows about 25% higher death rates in winter than in summer with an additional few percent increase associated with the Christmas and New Year's holidays. A pronounced increase in death rates also starts in mid-September, shortly after the school year begins. The causes of death with large contributions to the observed seasonality include diseases of the circulatory system; the respiratory system; the digestive system; and endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases. Researchers have identified several factors showing seasonal variation that could possibly explain the seasonal variations in mortality rate. These factors include seasonal variations in solar ultraviolet-B(UVB) doses and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations, gene expression, ambient temperature and humidity, UVB effects on environmental pathogen load, environmental pollutants and allergens, and photoperiod (or length of day). The factors with the strongest support in this analysis are seasonal variations in solar UVB doses and 25(OH)D concentrations. In the U.S., population mean 25(OH)D concentrations range from 21ng/mL in March to 28ng/mL in August. Measures to ensure that all people had 25(OH)D concentrations >36ng/mL year round would probably reduce death rates significantly. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Artificiat insemination vercus natural breeding in a multi.breed beef ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

multi.breed beef herd under intensive management. A.G. Paterson, G.O. .... also the use of Kamar heat detectors have met with limited success under the .... of the positive relation- ship between lactational stress and post partum anoestrus t4.

Application and verification of ECMWF seasonal forecast for wind energy

Science.gov (United States)

Žagar, Mark; Marić, Tomislav; Qvist, Martin; Gulstad, Line

2015-04-01

A good understanding of long-term annual energy production (AEP) is crucial when assessing the business case of investing in green energy like wind power. The art of wind-resource assessment has emerged into a scientific discipline on its own, which has advanced at high pace over the last decade. This has resulted in continuous improvement of the AEP accuracy and, therefore, increase in business case certainty. Harvesting the full potential output of a wind farm or a portfolio of wind farms depends heavily on optimizing operation and management strategy. The necessary information for short-term planning (up to 14 days) is provided by standard weather and power forecasting services, and the long-term plans are based on climatology. However, the wind-power industry is lacking quality information on intermediate scales of the expected variability in seasonal and intra-annual variations and their geographical distribution. The seasonal power forecast presented here is designed to bridge this gap. The seasonal power production forecast is based on the ECMWF seasonal weather forecast and the Vestas' high-resolution, mesoscale weather library. The seasonal weather forecast is enriched through a layer of statistical post-processing added to relate large-scale wind speed anomalies to mesoscale climatology. The resulting predicted energy production anomalies, thus, include mesoscale effects not captured by the global forecasting systems. The turbine power output is non-linearly related to the wind speed, which has important implications for the wind power forecast. In theory, the wind power is proportional to the cube of wind speed. However, due to the nature of turbine design, this exponent is close to 3 only at low wind speeds, becomes smaller as the wind speed increases, and above 11-13 m/s the power output remains constant, called the rated power. The non-linear relationship between wind speed and the power output generally increases sensitivity of the forecasted power

Ewes carrying the Booroola and Vacaria prolificacy alleles respond differently to ovulation induction with equine chorionic gonadotrophin.

Science.gov (United States)

Moraes, J C F; Souza, C J H

2017-09-21

The magnitude of ovulation rate (OR) after hormonal induction in sheep should be considered when prolific genotypes are used. We investigated for the first time the effect of the Vacaria allele and its combined effect with the Booroola prolificacy mutation on OR after hormonal treatment during breeding and anoestrous season. A hundred forty-nine Ile de France crossbred ewes, raised in natural pastures in South Brazil, were used to evaluate the OR after treatment with progestagen (MAP) followed or not by equine chorionic gonadotrophin (eCG) treatment (MAP + eCG). During the breeding season, 96% MAP-treated ewes ovulated in comparison to 97% of MAP + eCG-treated females. The double heterozygous carriers (BNVN) presented the higher OR, followed by the single Vacaria (NNVN) and Booroola (BNNN) heterozygous females and least the wild-type (NNNN) ewes. During anoestrus, 96% eCG-treated ewes ovulated, in contrast to 6% treated with MAP alone. The OR of the gonadotrophin-treated females was higher in BNVN and BNNN than NNVN and NNNN ewes. An additive effect in the OR of the two mutations was observed since OR in double heterozygous ewes was similar to the sum of the effects of the alleles of the single heterozygous carrier ewes.

Sorting Out Seasonal Allergies

Science.gov (United States)

... Close ‹ Back to Healthy Living Sorting Out Seasonal Allergies Sneezing, runny nose, nasal congestion. Symptoms of the ... How do I know if I have seasonal allergies? According to Dr. Georgeson, the best way to ...

To Everything There Is a Season: Summer-to-Winter Food Webs and the Functional Traits of Keystone Species.

Science.gov (United States)

Humphries, Murray M; Studd, Emily K; Menzies, Allyson K; Boutin, Stan

2017-11-01

gradient indicates seasonal specialization is more common among herbivores, small body sizes, and in regions with intermediate seasonality, than among carnivores, large body size, and regions where summers are very short or very long. Better understanding of food webs in seasonal environments, including their vulnerability and resilience to climate change, requires a multi-season perspective. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Season of sampling and season of birth influence serotonin metabolite levels in human cerebrospinal fluid.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jurjen J Luykx

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Animal studies have revealed seasonal patterns in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF monoamine (MA turnover. In humans, no study had systematically assessed seasonal patterns in CSF MA turnover in a large set of healthy adults. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Standardized amounts of CSF were prospectively collected from 223 healthy individuals undergoing spinal anesthesia for minor surgical procedures. The metabolites of serotonin (5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid, 5-HIAA, dopamine (homovanillic acid, HVA and norepinephrine (3-methoxy-4-hydroxyphenylglycol, MPHG were measured using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC. Concentration measurements by sampling and birth dates were modeled using a non-linear quantile cosine function and locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOESS, span = 0.75. The cosine model showed a unimodal season of sampling 5-HIAA zenith in April and a nadir in October (p-value of the amplitude of the cosine = 0.00050, with predicted maximum (PC(max and minimum (PC(min concentrations of 173 and 108 nmol/L, respectively, implying a 60% increase from trough to peak. Season of birth showed a unimodal 5-HIAA zenith in May and a nadir in November (p = 0.00339; PC(max = 172 and PC(min = 126. The non-parametric LOESS showed a similar pattern to the cosine in both season of sampling and season of birth models, validating the cosine model. A final model including both sampling and birth months demonstrated that both sampling and birth seasons were independent predictors of 5-HIAA concentrations. CONCLUSION: In subjects without mental illness, 5-HT turnover shows circannual variation by season of sampling as well as season of birth, with peaks in spring and troughs in fall.

Retrospective assessment of seasonal allergic symptoms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bødtger, Uffe; Poulsen, L K; Malling, H-J

2003-01-01

in a double-blind study. Assessment of severity of symptoms from the nose, eyes and lungs were performed daily during the season 2000, and post-seasonally 6 months after the season in 1999 and 2000. A four-point verbal descriptor scale (VDS-4) was used at all occasions. A mean in-seasonal symptom rating...

Changes in body composition and bone of female collegiate soccer players through the competitive season and off-season

Science.gov (United States)

Minett, M.M.; Binkley, T.B.; Weidauer, L.A.; Specker, B.L.

2017-01-01

Objectives: To assess body composition and bone changes pre- to post-season (pre-post) and post- to off-season (post-off) in female soccer athletes (SC). Methods: Outcomes were assessed using DXA and pQCT in 23 SC and 17 controls at three times throughout season. Results: SC, non-starters in particular, lost lean mass pre-post (-0.9±0.2 kg, pSoccer players lost lean mass over the competitive season that was not recovered during off-season. Bone size increased pre- to post-season. Female soccer athletes experience body composition and bone geometry changes that differ depending on the time of season and on athlete’s playing status. Evaluations of athletes at key times across the training season are necessary to understand changes that occur. PMID:28250243

Seasonal Changes in Central England Temperatures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Proietti, Tommaso; Hillebrand, Eric

The aim of this paper is to assess how climate change is reflected in the variation of the seasonal patterns of the monthly Central England Temperature time series between 1772 and 2013. In particular, we model changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Starting from the seminal work...... by Thomson (“The Seasons, Global Temperature and Precession”, Science, 7 April 1995, vol 268, p. 59–68), a number of studies have documented a shift in the phase of the annual cycle implying an earlier onset of the spring season at various European locations. A significant reduction in the amplitude...... and stochastic trends, as well as seasonally varying autocorrelation and residual variances. The model can be summarized as containing a permanent and a transitory component, where global warming is captured in the permanent component, on which the seasons load differentially. The phase of the seasonal cycle...

Seasonal differences in leaf-level physiology give lianas a competitive advantage over trees in a tropical seasonal forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Zhi-Quan; Schnitzer, Stefan A; Bongers, Frans

2009-08-01

Lianas are an important component of most tropical forests, where they vary in abundance from high in seasonal forests to low in seasonal forests. We tested the hypothesis that the physiological ability of lianas to fix carbon (and thus grow) during seasonal drought may confer a distinct advantage in seasonal tropical forests, which may explain pan-tropical liana distributions. We compared a range of leaf-level physiological attributes of 18 co-occurring liana and 16 tree species during the wet and dry seasons in a tropical seasonal forest in Xishuangbanna, China. We found that, during the wet season, lianas had significantly higher CO(2) assimilation per unit mass (A(mass)), nitrogen concentration (N(mass)), and delta(13)C values, and lower leaf mass per unit area (LMA) than trees, indicating that lianas have higher assimilation rates per unit leaf mass and higher integrated water-use efficiency (WUE), but lower leaf structural investments. Seasonal variation in CO(2) assimilation per unit area (A(area)), phosphorus concentration per unit mass (P(mass)), and photosynthetic N-use efficiency (PNUE), however, was significantly lower in lianas than in trees. For instance, mean tree A(area) decreased by 30.1% from wet to dry season, compared with only 12.8% for lianas. In contrast, from the wet to dry season mean liana delta(13)C increased four times more than tree delta(13)C, with no reduction in PNUE, whereas trees had a significant reduction in PNUE. Lianas had higher A(mass) than trees throughout the year, regardless of season. Collectively, our findings indicate that lianas fix more carbon and use water and nitrogen more efficiently than trees, particularly during seasonal drought, which may confer a competitive advantage to lianas during the dry season, and thus may explain their high relative abundance in seasonal tropical forests.

Prediction uncertainty in seasonal partial duration series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Peter Funder; Rosbjerg, Dan

1991-01-01

In order to obtain a good description of the exceedances in a partial duration series it is often necessary to divide the year into a number (2-4) of seasons. Hereby a stationary exceedance distribution can be maintained within each season. This type of seasonal models may, however, not be suitable...... for prediction purposes due to the large number of parameters required. In the particular case with exponentially distributed exceedances and Poissonian occurrence times the precision of the T year event estimator has been thoroughly examined considering both seasonal and nonseasonal models. The two......-seasonal probability density function of the T year event estimator has been deduced and used in the assessment of the precision of approximate moments. The nonseasonal approach covered both a total omission of seasonality by pooling data from different flood seasons and a discarding of nonsignificant season(s) before...

Role of PPARα in the Control of Torpor through FGF21-NPY Pathway: From Circadian Clock to Seasonal Change in Mammals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Norio Ishida

2009-01-01

Full Text Available In nature, hibernating animals encounter fasting, cold temperature and short day seasonally. Torpor is a state of decreased physiological activity in an animal, usually characterized by a reduced body temperature and rate of metabolism to adapt such a severe environment. Ablation of the central clock synchronizer, the suprachiasmatic nucleus in brain, abolishes torpor, a hibernation-like state, implicating the circadian clock involved in this seasonal change. Biologists knows well the energy source of daily heterotherms/hibernators changed from glucose to lipids in winter. Here we review several lines of evidence of a master transcriptional regulator in lipid catabolism, PPARα, in the control of torpor through FGF21-NPY pathway. This indicate the importance of circadian—and photoperiod—regulation of PPARα to tell seasons in our body.

The relationship of lightning activity and short-duation rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, F.; Cui, X.; Zhang, D. L.; Lin, Q.

2017-12-01

The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). To facilitate the analysis of the rainfall-lightning correlations, the SDR events are categorized into six different intensity grades according to their hourly rainfall rates (HRRs), and an optimal radius of 10 km from individual AWSs for counting their associated lightning flashes is used. Results show that the lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly with different intensity grades. Weak correlations (R 0.4) are found in the weak SDR events, and 40-50% of the events are no-flash ones. And moderate correlation (R 0.6) are found in the moderate SDR events, and > 10-20% of the events are no-flash ones. In contrast, high correlations (R 0.7) are obtained in the SDHR events, and < 10% of the events are no-flash ones. The results indicate that lightning activity is observed more frequently and correlated more robust with the rainfall in the SDHR events. Significant time lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. The percentages of SDR events with CG or total lightning activity preceding, lagging or coinciding with rainfall shows that (i) in about 55% of the SDR events lightning flashes preceded rainfall; (ii) the SDR events with lightning flashes lagging behind rainfall accounted for about 30%; and (iii) the SDR events without any time shifts accounted for the remaining 15%. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time

ASPECTS OF SEASONALITY TOURISTIC ACTIVITY SPECIFIC TO MAMAIA STATION

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Mariana C. JUGANARU

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The study of phenomena and social-economic processes under the aspect of their evolution in time, mainly on a short term or intra-annual represents a preoccupation at a micro and macroeconomic level. For the tourism operators, this process includes knowing the touristic market and the anticipations of its evolution, as an important condition for taking decisions in their activity. The aim of this work is to analyze the touristic activity according to seasonality in Mamaia station, using qualitative and quantitative research methods. The study is important through the aspects that emphasize the specific evolution of the touristic activity from this station. For this aim, a database was formed by the monthly values of three indicators of the touristic activity (number of arrivals, number of overnights and the average duration of the stay from the period 2010-2016, using a series of statistic and econometric instruments. The results of the research can be proved by the units that maintain or are connected to the touristic activity, but also to the local administration, in making up the attenuation strategy of the touristic activity concerning the seasonality of Mamaia. Also, the work is a case study for the work with the students (especially, for tourism economy, applied statistics in tourism and marketing.

Effect of exercise on photoperiod-regulated hypothalamic gene expression and peripheral hormones in the seasonal Dwarf Hamster Phodopus sungorus.

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Ines Petri

Full Text Available The Siberian hamster (Phodopus sungorus is a seasonal mammal responding to the annual cycle in photoperiod with anticipatory physiological adaptations. This includes a reduction in food intake and body weight during the autumn in anticipation of seasonally reduced food availability. In the laboratory, short-day induction of body weight loss can be reversed or prevented by voluntary exercise undertaken when a running wheel is introduced into the home cage. The mechanism by which exercise prevents or reverses body weight reduction is unknown, but one hypothesis is a reversal of short-day photoperiod induced gene expression changes in the hypothalamus that underpin body weight regulation. Alternatively, we postulate an exercise-related anabolic effect involving the growth hormone axis. To test these hypotheses we established photoperiod-running wheel experiments of 8 to 16 weeks duration assessing body weight, food intake, organ mass, lean and fat mass by magnetic resonance, circulating hormones FGF21 and insulin and hypothalamic gene expression. In response to running wheel activity, short-day housed hamsters increased body weight. Compared to short-day housed sedentary hamsters the body weight increase was accompanied by higher food intake, maintenance of tissue mass of key organs such as the liver, maintenance of lean and fat mass and hormonal profiles indicative of long day housed hamsters but there was no overall reversal of hypothalamic gene expression regulated by photoperiod. Therefore the mechanism by which activity induces body weight gain is likely to act largely independently of photoperiod regulated gene expression in the hypothalamus.

Spatiotemporal patterns of High Mountain Asia's snowmelt season identified with an automated snowmelt detection algorithm, 1987-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Taylor; Bookhagen, Bodo; Rheinwalt, Aljoscha

2017-10-01

High Mountain Asia (HMA) - encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountain ranges - is the primary water source for much of Asia, serving more than a billion downstream users. Many catchments receive the majority of their yearly water budget in the form of snow, which is poorly monitored by sparse in situ weather networks. Both the timing and volume of snowmelt play critical roles in downstream water provision, as many applications - such as agriculture, drinking-water generation, and hydropower - rely on consistent and predictable snowmelt runoff. Here, we examine passive microwave data across HMA with five sensors (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR-E, AMSR2, and GPM) from 1987 to 2016 to track the timing of the snowmelt season - defined here as the time between maximum passive microwave signal separation and snow clearance. We validated our method against climate model surface temperatures, optical remote-sensing snow-cover data, and a manual control dataset (n = 2100, 3 variables at 25 locations over 28 years); our algorithm is generally accurate within 3-5 days. Using the algorithm-generated snowmelt dates, we examine the spatiotemporal patterns of the snowmelt season across HMA. The climatically short (29-year) time series, along with complex interannual snowfall variations, makes determining trends in snowmelt dates at a single point difficult. We instead identify trends in snowmelt timing by using hierarchical clustering of the passive microwave data to determine trends in self-similar regions. We make the following four key observations. (1) The end of the snowmelt season is trending almost universally earlier in HMA (negative trends). Changes in the end of the snowmelt season are generally between 2 and 8 days decade-1 over the 29-year study period (5-25 days total). The length of the snowmelt season is thus shrinking in many, though not all, regions of HMA. Some areas exhibit later peak signal separation (positive trends), but with generally smaller magnitudes

GENETIC DIVERGENCE AMONG COTTON GENOTYPES GROWN IN THE MAIN SEASON AND OFF SEASON

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THIAGO ALEXANDRE SANTANA GILIO

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this work was to evaluate the agronomic performance and estimate the genetic divergence of 18 cotton genotypes grown in the main season (sowed in December, 2012 and off season (sowed in January, 2013, considering their agronomic characteristics and resistance to Ramularia leaf spot. A randomized block experimental design was used, with five replications. The characteristics evaluated were plant height, first branch height, position of first fruiting branch, height of first fruiting branch, length between nodes, number of nodes, average number of bolls per plant, average boll weight, area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC related to the Ramularia leaf spot severity, weight of 100 - seed from the plant middle third, fiber percentage, average production per plant, yield and cotton fiber quality. The results were subjected to individual and joint analysis of variance and the genetic divergence was estimated according to multivariate procedures (Mahalanobis' generalized distance and Tocher's optimization method. The dissimilarity matrices were summed to estimate the genetic divergence, considering both growing periods. Genetic variability was found among the genotypes evaluated, in both the main season and off season. The characteristic that most contributed to the genetic divergence in the main season was the production per plant and, in the off season, was the fiber percentage. According to the results of the present work, the crosses between the genotypes BRS - 335 and FMT - 707; FM - 910 and FMT - 707; and IMA - 08 - 12427 and FMT - 707 are recommended.

Effects of food provisioning and habitat management on spatial behaviour of Little Owls during the breeding season

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, Lars Bo; Chrenkova, Monika; Sunde, Peter

2016-01-01

The population of Little Owls in Denmark is close to extinction. The main cause is food limitation during the breeding season. Efforts to improve breeding success include providing breeding pairs with supplementary food and attempts to improve foraging habitats by creating short grass areas near ...... reproductive output in an endangered raptor, but also to decreased working effort, which in turn may improve adult survival....

Seasonal variation of carbon fluxes in a sparse savanna in semi arid Sudan.

Science.gov (United States)

Ardö, Jonas; Mölder, Meelis; El-Tahir, Bashir Awad; Elkhidir, Hatim Abdalla Mohammed

2008-12-01

Large spatial, seasonal and annual variability of major drivers of the carbon cycle (precipitation, temperature, fire regime and nutrient availability) are common in the Sahel region. This causes large variability in net ecosystem exchange and in vegetation productivity, the subsistence basis for a major part of the rural population in Sahel. This study compares the 2005 dry and wet season fluxes of CO2 for a grass land/sparse savanna site in semi arid Sudan and relates these fluxes to water availability and incoming photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD). Data from this site could complement the current sparse observation network in Africa, a continent where climatic change could significantly impact the future and which constitute a weak link in our understanding of the global carbon cycle. The dry season (represented by Julian day 35-46, February 2005) was characterized by low soil moisture availability, low evapotranspiration and a high vapor pressure deficit. The mean daily NEE (net ecosystem exchange, Eq. 1) was -14.7 mmol d-1 for the 12 day period (negative numbers denote sinks, i.e. flux from the atmosphere to the biosphere). The water use efficiency (WUE) was 1.6 mmol CO2 mol H2O-1 and the light use efficiency (LUE) was 0.95 mmol CO2 mol PPFD-1. Photosynthesis is a weak, but linear function of PPFD. The wet season (represented by Julian day 266-273, September 2005) was, compared to the dry season, characterized by slightly higher soil moisture availability, higher evapotranspiration and a slightly lower vapor pressure deficit. The mean daily NEE was -152 mmol d-1 for the 8 day period. The WUE was lower, 0.97 mmol CO2 mol H2O-1 and the LUE was higher, 7.2 mumol CO2 mmol PPFD-1 during the wet season compared to the dry season. During the wet season photosynthesis increases with PPFD to about 1600 mumol m-2s-1 and then levels off. Based on data collected during two short periods, the studied ecosystem was a sink of carbon both during the dry and wet season

Seasonal variation of carbon fluxes in a sparse savanna in semi arid Sudan

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El-Tahir Bashir

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Large spatial, seasonal and annual variability of major drivers of the carbon cycle (precipitation, temperature, fire regime and nutrient availability are common in the Sahel region. This causes large variability in net ecosystem exchange and in vegetation productivity, the subsistence basis for a major part of the rural population in Sahel. This study compares the 2005 dry and wet season fluxes of CO2 for a grass land/sparse savanna site in semi arid Sudan and relates these fluxes to water availability and incoming photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD. Data from this site could complement the current sparse observation network in Africa, a continent where climatic change could significantly impact the future and which constitute a weak link in our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Results The dry season (represented by Julian day 35–46, February 2005 was characterized by low soil moisture availability, low evapotranspiration and a high vapor pressure deficit. The mean daily NEE (net ecosystem exchange, Eq. 1 was -14.7 mmol d-1 for the 12 day period (negative numbers denote sinks, i.e. flux from the atmosphere to the biosphere. The water use efficiency (WUE was 1.6 mmol CO2 mol H2O-1 and the light use efficiency (LUE was 0.95 mmol CO2 mol PPFD-1. Photosynthesis is a weak, but linear function of PPFD. The wet season (represented by Julian day 266–273, September 2005 was, compared to the dry season, characterized by slightly higher soil moisture availability, higher evapotranspiration and a slightly lower vapor pressure deficit. The mean daily NEE was -152 mmol d-1 for the 8 day period. The WUE was lower, 0.97 mmol CO2 mol H2O-1 and the LUE was higher, 7.2 μmol CO2 mmol PPFD-1 during the wet season compared to the dry season. During the wet season photosynthesis increases with PPFD to about 1600 μmol m-2s-1 and then levels off. Conclusion Based on data collected during two short periods, the studied ecosystem

Annual and Seasonal Changes in the Structure of Litter-Dwelling Ant Assemblages (Hymenoptera: Formicidae in Atlantic Semideciduous Forests

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Flávio Siqueira de Castro

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We surveyed ant fauna in the leaf litter in an Atlantic Semideciduous forest in the State Park of Rio Doce (PERD. The work aimed to produce basic information about habitat effects on diversity, as well as about how the ant fauna in a such buffered forest habitat, as the litter layer, could respond the climate variation in a short and long term. We sampled two years in two distinct forest physiognomies, which respond to different geomorphologic backgrounds, in dry and rainy seasons. Species composition, richness and abundance of these forests were distinct. However, both forests hosted similar numbers of rare and specialized, habitat demanding species, thus suggesting both are similarly well preserved, despite distinct physiognomies. However, the lower and more open forest was, more susceptible to dry season effects, showing a steeper decline in species numbers in such season, but similar numbers in the wet seasons. The pattern varied between years, which corroborates the hypothesis of a strongly variable community in response to subtle climatic variation among years. The present results are baselines for future long term monitoring projects, and could support protocols for early warnings of global climatic changes effects on biodiversity.

Studies on post-partum reproductive performance of Hereford beef cows in Uruguay with the aid of progesterone assay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cavestany, D.; Cardozo, W.; Tagle, R.; Gama, S.; Lanzzeri, S.; Perdigon, F.

1990-01-01

A trial was undertaken on Hereford beef cows to determine the length of their post-partum (pp) anoestrous periods under traditional conditions of feeding and management in Uruguay. Three subsequent trials to shorten pp anoestrus involving early weaning (at 40 days pp), temporary weaning for 72 hours (at 45 days), and temporary weaning for 24 hours combined with GnRH, were run in different parts of Uruguay under different soil and pasture conditions. No treatment differences were found, but cows on improved pastures had shorter pp anoestrous periods (74, 99 and 102 days for the three trials respectively) and higher pregnancy rates (80%, 46% and 55% respectively). It was concluded that the main cause of low reproductive efficiency was poor nutrition and that, under such conditions, no treatment to shorten the pp anoestrus would ever be expected to be successful. (author). 14 refs, 2 figs, 2 tabs

Effects of age and season on haematological parameters of donkeys during the rainy and cold-dry seasons

Science.gov (United States)

Zakari, Friday Ocheja; Ayo, Joseph Olusegun; Rekwot, Peter Ibrahim; Kawu, Mohammed Umar

2015-12-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the effects of age and season on haematological parameters of donkeys at rest during the rainy and cold-dry seasons. Thirty healthy donkeys divided into three groups based on their age served as the subjects. During each season, blood sample was collected from each donkey thrice, 2 weeks apart, for haematological analysis, and the dry-bulb temperature (DBT), relative humidity (RH) and temperature-humidity index (THI) were obtained thrice each day during the experimental period using standard procedures. During the rainy season, the mean DBT (33.05 ± 0.49 °C), RH (73.63 ± 1.09 %) and THI (84.39 ± 0.71) were higher ( P donkeys were higher ( P donkeys were higher ( P < 0.05) in the rainy than in the cold-dry season. In conclusion, PCV, RBC, Hb and LYM were considerably higher in foals than yearlings or adults during the rainy season, while erythrocytic indices and platelet counts were higher in adults or yearlings than in foals in both seasons. Erythrocytic indices, PLT and N/L were higher in the rainy than the cold-dry season in adults, yearlings and foals.

An evaluation of harvesting machinery for short rotation coppice willow in Denmark

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kofman, P.D.; Spinelli, R.

1997-12-31

During the harvesting seasons 1994-1995 and 1995-1996 several harvesting trials were carried out within the EU project on harvesting and storage of Short Rotation Crops and within a national project. During this period the following machines were investigated: Diemelstadt poplar harvester, cut and chip; Claas forage harvester with SRF header, cut and chip; Austoft sugarcane harvester, adapted to SRF, cut and chip; Bender II, cut and chip; Hvidsted Energy Allrounder, whole shoot harvester; Dansalix whole shoot harvester. In the 1994-1995 season the intention was to harvest 300 tonnes of whole shoots, chunks and chips for a storage trial. The main conclusions of the 1994-1995 harvesting season must be that harvesting willow with the existing machines in wet winters without frozen ground is very difficult. The machines will have to be developed further and special interest should be given to developing shuttle vehicles with the same flotation as the tracked harvester. Several of the problems encountered with the machines in Denmark were confirmed by the experience in the other trials. Road transportation of chips from SRF plantations is just as expensive as transporting energy chips from the forest at about Dkr 50 per tonne over 48 km. Transporting whole shoots is very expensive due to the low bulk density. Transportation of whole shoots over 48 km costs on the average Dkr 133 per tonne fresh. A very short pilot study into chipping of whole shoots from a three metre high pile indicated that this comminution with a normal forest chipper has a low productivity (8.9 tonnes fresh per work place hour) and is very expensive at Dkr 157 per tonne. This productivity can be improved by equipping the chipper with a special feeding table and better feed rollers for the SRF crop. (EG)

Seroprevalence of Antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum Sporozoite Antigens as Predictive Disease Transmission Markers in an Area of Ghana with Seasonal Malaria Transmission.

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Kwadwo A Kusi

Full Text Available As an increasing number of malaria-endemic countries approach the disease elimination phase, sustenance of control efforts and effective monitoring are necessary to ensure success. Mathematical models that estimate anti-parasite antibody seroconversion rates are gaining relevance as more sensitive transmission intensity estimation tools. Models however estimate yearly seroconversion and seroreversion rates and usually predict long term changes in transmission, occurring years before the time of sampling. Another challenge is the identification of appropriate antigen targets since specific antibody levels must directly reflect changes in transmission patterns. We therefore investigated the potential of antibodies to sporozoite and blood stage antigens for detecting short term differences in malaria transmission in two communities in Northern Ghana with marked, seasonal transmission.Cross-sectional surveys were conducted during the rainy and dry seasons in two communities, one in close proximity to an irrigation dam and the other at least 20 Km away from the dam. Antibodies against the sporozoite-specific antigens circumsporozoite protein (CSP and Cell traversal for ookinetes and sporozoites (CelTOS and the classical blood stage antigen apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1 were measured by indirect ELISA. Antibody levels and seroprevalence were compared between surveys and between study communities. Antibody seroprevalence data were fitted to a modified reversible catalytic model to estimate the seroconversion and seroreversion rates.Changes in sporozoite-specific antibody levels and seroprevalence directly reflected differences in parasite prevalence between the rainy and dry seasons and hence the extent of malaria transmission. Seroconversion rate estimates from modelled seroprevalence data did not however support the above observation.The data confirms the potential utility of sporozoite-specific antigens as useful markers for monitoring short term/seasonal

The ratio of long-lived to short-lived radon-222 progeny concentrations in ground-level air

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoetzl, H.; Winkler, R. [Institut fuer Strahlenschutz, GSF-Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit, Neuherberg Oberschleissheim (Germany)

1996-02-09

The ratio of {sup 210}Pb air concentration to the short-lived radon ({sup 222}Rn) decay products concentration at ground level was investigated at a semi-rural location 10 km north of Munich, south Germany, for a period of 11 years (1982-1992). The average ratio from 132 monthly mean values has been found to be (7.5{+-}2.2) x 10{sup -5} (arithmetic mean{+-}S.D.). While the time series of the short-lived radon daughter concentration exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern with maxima mostly in October of each year, the course of {sup 210}Pb air concentration is characterized by high values from October through February. Consequently, high ratios of {sup 210}Pb to short-lived decay product concentration are often observed in the winter months of December-February. To study the influence of meteorological conditions on this behaviour, {sup 210}Pb and {sup 214}Pb concentrations were measured on a short-term basis with sampling intervals of 2-3 days from October 1991 to November 1992. The air concentrations obtained within those intervals were then correlated with actual meteorological parameters. On the base of this investigation the seasonal behaviour can essentially be explained by the more frequent inversion weather conditions in winter than in the summer months. At the same location, the average ratio of {sup 210}Po to {sup 210}Pb concentration in ground level air has been found to be 0.079 from 459 weakly mean values between 1976 and 1985. Hence, the corresponding average ratios of the short-lived radon daughters (EEC) to {sup 210}Pb and {sup 210}Po, were 1:7.5x10{sup -5} and 1:0.6 x 10{sup -5}, respectively.

SEASONAL MARKETING: STRATEGIES USING THE CALENDAR

OpenAIRE

Dr Anil Sardana; Dr PoojaTalwar; Shruti Gulati

2018-01-01

In this ever-dynamic world, the only thing that is constant is change. Change when happens, applies to all; then why should marketing remain the same? Each year is a witness to various seasons, and each season requires separate marketing efforts to be carried out differently. Seasonal marketing thus helps to capitalise on the varied demand through varied marketing. Every season requires special efforts and hence leads to different sales.

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Science.gov (United States)

Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Prudhomme, Christel; Neumann, Jessica; Krzeminski, Blazej; Pappenberger, Florian

2018-04-01

This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate

Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

1980-08-01

In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

Leaf ontogeny dominates the seasonal exchange of volatile organic compounds (VOC) in a SRC-poplar plantation during an entire growing season

Science.gov (United States)

Brilli, Federico; Gioli, Beniamino; Fares, Silvano; Zenone, Terenzio; Zona, Donatella; Gielen, Bert; Loreto, Francesco; Janssens, Ivan; Ceulemans, Reinhart

2015-04-01

The declining cost of many renewable energy technologies and changes in the prices of fossil fuels have recently encouraged governments policies to subsidize the use of biomass as a sustainable source of energy. Deciduous poplars (Populus spp.) trees are often selected for biomass production in short rotation coppiced (SRC) for their high CO2 photosynthetic assimilation rates and their capacity to develop dense canopies with high values of leaf area index (LAI). So far, observations and projections of seasonal variations of many VOC fluxes has been limited to strong isoprenoids emitting evergreen ecosystems such tropical and Mediterranean forests as well as Citrus and oil palm plantation, all having constant values of LAI. We run a long-term field campaign where the exchange of VOC, together with CO2 and water vapor was monitored during an entire growing season (June - November, 2012) above a SRC-based poplar plantation. Our results confirmed that isoprene and methanol were the most abundant fluxes emitted, accounting for more than 90% of the total carbon released in form of VOC. However, Northern climates characterized by fresh summertime temperatures and recurring precipitations favored poplar growth while inhibiting the development of isoprene emission that resulted in only 0.7% of the net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE). Besides, measurements of a multitude of VOC fluxes by PTR-TOF-MS showed bi-directional exchange of oxygenated-VOC (OVOC) such as: formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acetone, isoprene oxidation products (iox, namely MVK, MAC and MEK) as well as ethanol and formic acid. The application of Self Organizing Maps to visualize the relationship between the full time-series of many VOC fluxes and the observed seasonal variations of environmental, physiological and structural parameters proved the most abundant isoprene ad methanol fluxes to occur mainly on the hottest days under mid-high light intensities when also NEE and evapotraspiration reached the highest

Epsodic paroxysmal hemicrania with seasonal variation: case report and the EPH-cluster headache continuum hypothesis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veloso Germany Gonçalves

2001-01-01

Full Text Available Episodic paroxysmal hemicrania (EPH is a rare disorder characterized by frequent, daily attacks of short-lived, unilateral headache with accompanying ipsilateral autonomic features. EPH has attack periods which last weeks to months separated by remission intervals lasting months to years, however, a seasonal variation has never been reported in EPH. We report a new case of EPH with a clear seasonal pattern: a 32-year-old woman with a right-sided headache for 17 years. Pain occurred with a seasonal variation, with bouts lasting one month (usually in the first months of the year and remission periods lasting around 11 months. During these periods she had headache from three to five times per day, lasting from 15 to 30 minutes, without any particular period preference. There were no precipitating or aggravating factors. Tearing and conjunctival injection accompanied ipsilaterally the pain. Previous treatments provided no pain relief. She completely responded to indomethacin 75 mg daily. After three years, the pain recurred with longer attack duration and was just relieved with prednisone. We also propose a new hypothesis: the EPH-cluster headache continuum.

Seasonal affective disorder and non-seasonal affective disorders : Results from the NESDA study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Winthorst, Wim H; Roest, Annelieke M; Bos, Elisabeth H; Meesters, Ybe; Penninx, Brenda W J H; Nolen, Willem A; de Jonge, Peter

BACKGROUND: Seasonal affective disorder (SAD) is considered to be a subtype of depression. AIMS: To compare the clinical picture of SAD to non-seasonal affective disorders (non-SADs). METHOD: Diagnoses according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) were established

Seasonal timing in a warming world : plasticity of seasonal timing of growth and reproduction

OpenAIRE

Salis, L.

2015-01-01

In seasonal environments the timing of various biological processes is crucial for growth, survival and reproductive success of an individual. Nowadays, rapid large-scale climate change is altering species’ seasonal timing (phenology) in many eco¬systems. In this thesis Lucia Salis focuses on the study of seasonal timing in the food chain of the oak-winter moth-great tit. As temperature increased over the last decades, both phenologies of the host plant, the oak, and the herbivorous insect, t...

Human seasonal and circadian studies in Antarctica (Halley, 75°S).

Science.gov (United States)

Arendt, Josephine; Middleton, Benita

2018-03-01

Living for extended periods in Antarctica exposes base personnel to extremes of daylength (photoperiod) and temperature. At the British Antarctic Survey base of Halley, 75°S, the sun does not rise for 110 d in the winter and does not set for 100 d in summer. Photoperiod is the major time cue governing the timing of seasonal events such as reproduction in many species. The neuroendocrine signal providing photoperiodic information to body physiology is the duration of melatonin secretion which reflects the length of the night: longer in the short days of winter and shorter in summer. Light of sufficient intensity and spectral composition serves to suppress production of melatonin and to set the circadian timing and the duration of the rhythm. In humans early observations suggested that bright (>2000 lux) white light was needed to suppress melatonin completely. Shortly thereafter winter depression (Seasonal Affective Disorder or SAD) was described, and its successful treatment by an artificial summer photoperiod of bright white light, sufficient to shorten melatonin production. At Halley dim artificial light intensity during winter was measured, until 2003, at a maximum of approximately 500 lux in winter. Thus a strong seasonal and circadian time cue was absent. It seemed likely that winter depression would be common in the extended period of winter darkness and could be treated with an artificial summer photoperiod. These observations, and predictions, inspired a long series of studies regarding human seasonal and circadian status, and the effects of light treatment, in a small overwintering, isolated community, living in the same conditions for many months at Halley. We found little evidence of SAD, or change in duration of melatonin production with season. However the timing of the melatonin rhythm itself, and/or that of its metabolite 6-sulphatoxymelatonin (aMT6s), was used as a primary marker of seasonal, circadian and treatment changes. A substantial phase

Toward Seasonal Forecasting of Global Droughts: Evaluation over USA and Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Eric; Yuan, Xing; Roundy, Joshua; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming

2013-04-01

in different seasons for different basins. The R2 of drought severity accumulated over USA is higher during winter, and climate models present added value especially at long leads. For countries with sparse networks and weak reporting systems, remote sensing observations can provide the realtime data for the monitoring of drought. More importantly, these datasets are now available for at least a decade, which allows for estimating a climatology against which current conditions can be compared. Based on our established experimental African Drought Monitor (ADM) (see http://hydrology.princeton.edu/~nchaney/ADM_ML), we use the downscaled CFSv2 climate forcings to drive the re-calibrated VIC model and produce 6-month, 20-member ensemble hydrologic forecasts over Africa starting on the 1st of each calendar month during 1982-2007. Our CHM-based seasonal hydrologic forecasts are now being analyzed for its skill in predicting short-term soil moisture droughts over Africa. Besides relying on a single seasonal climate model or a single drought index, preliminary forecast results will be presented using multiple seasonal climate models based on the NOAA-supported National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project, and with multiple drought indices. Results will be presented for the USA NIDIS test beds such as Southeast US and Colorado NIDIS (National Integrated Drought Information System) test beds, and potentially for other regions of the globe.

Winter electricity supply and seasonal storage deficit in the Swiss Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Manso, Pedro; Monay, Blaise; Dujardin, Jérôme; Schaefli, Bettina; Schleiss, Anton

2017-04-01

Switzerland. In some cases additional storage would allow mitigating negative impacts of climate change. In one of the tested cases the decrease in inflows is such that the reservoir will not fill up in the future; this reservoir will become a priority location for pumping capacity increase, for short-term or seasonal storage of excess solar/wind energy. Considering that the present average rate of glacier mass loss at the country scale is equivalent to the Grande Dixence reservoir per year (the largest Swiss reservoir, approx. 380 hm3), increasing artificial water storage might become mandatory to maintain the same level of security electricity supply in the future.

Evapotranspiration seasonality across the Amazon Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Eiji Maeda, Eduardo; Ma, Xuanlong; Wagner, Fabien Hubert; Kim, Hyungjun; Oki, Taikan; Eamus, Derek; Huete, Alfredo

2017-06-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) of Amazon forests is a main driver of regional climate patterns and an important indicator of ecosystem functioning. Despite its importance, the seasonal variability of ET over Amazon forests, and its relationship with environmental drivers, is still poorly understood. In this study, we carry out a water balance approach to analyse seasonal patterns in ET and their relationships with water and energy drivers over five sub-basins across the Amazon Basin. We used in situ measurements of river discharge, and remotely sensed estimates of terrestrial water storage, rainfall, and solar radiation. We show that the characteristics of ET seasonality in all sub-basins differ in timing and magnitude. The highest mean annual ET was found in the northern Rio Negro basin (˜ 1497 mm year-1) and the lowest values in the Solimões River basin (˜ 986 mm year-1). For the first time in a basin-scale study, using observational data, we show that factors limiting ET vary across climatic gradients in the Amazon, confirming local-scale eddy covariance studies. Both annual mean and seasonality in ET are driven by a combination of energy and water availability, as neither rainfall nor radiation alone could explain patterns in ET. In southern basins, despite seasonal rainfall deficits, deep root water uptake allows increasing rates of ET during the dry season, when radiation is usually higher than in the wet season. We demonstrate contrasting ET seasonality with satellite greenness across Amazon forests, with strong asynchronous relationships in ever-wet watersheds, and positive correlations observed in seasonally dry watersheds. Finally, we compared our results with estimates obtained by two ET models, and we conclude that neither of the two tested models could provide a consistent representation of ET seasonal patterns across the Amazon.

Flublok Seasonal Influenza (Flu) Vaccination

Science.gov (United States)

... type="submit" value="Submit" /> Archived Flu Emails Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Flublok Seasonal Influenza (Flu) Vaccine Questions & Answers Language: English (US) Español ...

7 CFR 916.15 - Marketing season.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 8 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Marketing season. 916.15 Section 916.15 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Regulating Handling Definitions § 916.15 Marketing season. Marketing season means the period beginning on...

The Gambia and Bangladesh: the seasons and diarrhoea.

Science.gov (United States)

Rowland, M G

1986-09-01

Climactic factors in the Gambia and Bangladesh have an important impact on the incidence of diarrheal disease. Both countries share some common characteristics in climate, including a cool dry winter of 3 months followed by a hot dry spring and hot wet summers of 5-7 months in length. The main difference is in the amount of rainfall. The Gambia may have 20-30 inches of rain each year; Bangladesh usually has up to 4-5 times this amount. In the Gambia, drought is a recurring problem; floods is the problem in Bangladesh. A study in the Gambia found a close link between the time of the annual peak in diarrhea in young children and the summer rains. A 2nd peak of diarrhea in the winter also was significant and was shown to coincide with a short period of intense transmission of rotavirus. Of the enteric infections of childhood, the enterotoxigenic "Escherichia coli" (ETEC), that is those producing heat-stable toxin (ST) were found to be the most important etiological agents of diarrhea in both countries, with a peak during the rains. In rural Gambia, water is obtained almost exclusively from surface wells, 15-20 meters deep. It was found that, although this water was fecally contaminated throughout the year, levels of contamination increased by up to 100 times with 1-2 days of the start of the rains because excreta is washed into the wells. It also was clear that contaminated water and domestic environment contribute to contamination of children's food. The high level of contamination of food during the summer coincided with the time of high diarrhea prevalence. In Bangladesh it was shown that the incidence of ETEC diarrhea in infants was positively correlated with the frequency of consumption of weaning foods contaminated with fecal coliforms. The seasonal peak of ETEC diarrhea coincided with the time when food was most contaminated due to higher bacterial growth caused by high temperatures. Cholera is endemic in many areas of Bangladesh but not in the Gambia. Though

Diurnal and seasonal variations of concentration and size distribution of nano aerosols (10-1100 nm) enclosing radon decay products in the Postojna Cave, Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bezek, M.; Gregoric, A.; Kavasi, N.; Vaupotic, J.

2012-01-01

At the lowest point along the tourist route in the Postojna Cave, the activity concentration of radon ( 222 Rn) short-lived decay products and number concentration and size distribution of background aerosol particles in the size range of 10-1100 nm were measured. In the warm yearly season, aerosol concentration was low (52 cm -3 ) with 21 % particles smaller than 50 nm, while in the cold season, it was higher (1238 cm -3 ) with 8 % of -3 , and fractions of unattached radon decay products were 0.62 and 0.13, respectively. (authors)

Effects of In-Season Short-term Plyometric Training Program on Sprint and Jump Performance of Young Male Track Athletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Chelly, Mohamed Souhaiel; Hermassi, Souhail; Shephard, Roy J

2015-08-01

We studied the effect of supplementing normal in-season training by a 10-week lower limb plyometric training program (hurdle and depth jumping), examining measures of competitive potential (peak power output [PP], sprint running velocity, squat jump [SJ], countermovement jump [CMJ], drop jump [DJ], and lower limb muscle volume). The subjects (27 male track athletes, aged 11.9 ± 1.0 years; body mass: 39.1 ± 6.1 kg; height: 1.56 ± 0.02 m; body fat: 12.8 ± 4.4%) were randomly assigned between a control (normal training) group (C; n = 13) and an experimental group (E; n = 14) who also performed plyometric training 3 times per week. A force-velocity ergometer test determined PP and SJ, and an Optojump apparatus evaluated CMJ height and DJ (height and power). A multiple-5-bound test assessed horizontal jumping, and video-camera analyses over a 40-m sprint yielded velocities for the first step (VS), the first 5 m (V5m), and between 35 and 40 m (Vmax). Leg muscle volume was estimated anthropometrically. Experimental group showed gains relative to C in SJ height (p plyometric training improved important components of athletic performance relative to standard in-season training in young runners.

Use of Flood Seasonality in Pooling-Group Formation and Quantile Estimation: An Application in Great Britain

Science.gov (United States)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Bell, Victoria; Stewart, Elizabeth

2018-02-01

Regional flood frequency analysis is one of the most commonly applied methods for estimating extreme flood events at ungauged sites or locations with short measurement records. It is based on: (i) the definition of a homogeneous group (pooling-group) of catchments, and on (ii) the use of the pooling-group data to estimate flood quantiles. Although many methods to define a pooling-group (pooling schemes, PS) are based on catchment physiographic similarity measures, in the last decade methods based on flood seasonality similarity have been contemplated. In this paper, two seasonality-based PS are proposed and tested both in terms of the homogeneity of the pooling-groups they generate and in terms of the accuracy in estimating extreme flood events. The method has been applied in 420 catchments in Great Britain (considered as both gauged and ungauged) and compared against the current Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) PS. Results for gauged sites show that, compared to the current PS, the seasonality-based PS performs better both in terms of homogeneity of the pooling-group and in terms of the accuracy of flood quantile estimates. For ungauged locations, a national-scale hydrological model has been used for the first time to quantify flood seasonality. Results show that in 75% of the tested locations the seasonality-based PS provides an improvement in the accuracy of the flood quantile estimates. The remaining 25% were located in highly urbanized, groundwater-dependent catchments. The promising results support the aspiration that large-scale hydrological models complement traditional methods for estimating design floods.

Macroinvertebrate short-term responses to flow variation and oxygen depletion: A mesocosm approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Calapez, Ana R; Branco, Paulo; Santos, José M; Ferreira, Teresa; Hein, Thomas; Brito, António G; Feio, Maria João

2017-12-01

In Mediterranean rivers, water scarcity is a key stressor with direct and indirect effects on other stressors, such as water quality decline and inherent oxygen depletion associated with pollutants inputs. Yet, predicting the responses of macroinvertebrates to these stressors combination is quite challenging due to the reduced available information, especially if biotic and abiotic seasonal variations are taken under consideration. This study focused on the response of macroinvertebrates by drift to single and combined effects of water scarcity and dissolved oxygen (DO) depletion over two seasons (winter and spring). A factorial design of two flow velocity levels - regular and low (vL) - with three levels of oxygen depletion - normoxia, medium depletion (dM) and higher depletion (dH) - was carried out in a 5-artificial channels system, in short-term experiments. Results showed that both stressors individually and together had a significant effect on macroinvertebrate drift ratio for both seasons. Single stressor effects showed that macroinvertebrate drift decreased with flow velocity reduction and increased with DO depletion, in both winter and spring experiments. Despite single stressors opposing effects in drift ratio, combined stressors interaction (vL×dM and vL×dH) induced a positive synergistic drift effect for both seasons, but only in winter the drift ratio was different between the levels of DO depletion. Stressors interaction in winter seemed to intensify drift response when reached lower oxygen saturation. Also, drift patterns were different between seasons for all treatments, which may depend on individual's life stage and seasonal behaviour. Water scarcity seems to exacerbate the oxygen depletion conditions resulting into a greater drifting of invertebrates. The potential effects of oxygen depletion should be evaluated when addressing the impacts of water scarcity on river ecosystems, since flow reductions will likely contribute to a higher oxygen

Seasonal variation in sports participation.

Science.gov (United States)

Schüttoff, Ute; Pawlowski, Tim

2018-02-01

This study explores indicators describing socio-demographics, sports participation characteristics and motives which are associated with variation in sports participation across seasons. Data were drawn from the German Socio-Economic Panel which contains detailed information on the sports behaviour of adults in Germany. Overall, two different measures of seasonal variation are developed and used as dependent variables in our regression models. The first variable measures the coefficient of (seasonal) variation in sport-related energy expenditure per week. The second variable measures whether activity drops below the threshold as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). Results suggest that the organisational setting, the intensity and number of sports practised, and the motive for participation are strongly correlated with the variation measures used. For example, both, participation in a sports club and a commercial facility, are associated with reduced seasonal variation and a significantly higher probability of participating at a volume above the WHO threshold across all seasons. These findings give some impetus for policymaking and the planning of sports programmes as well as future research directions.

Direct contamination - seasonality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aarkrog, A.

1994-01-01

Direct contamination is the primary pathway to terrestrial vegetation in the first period after an activity release to the atmosphere. All radionuclides are able to be transferred via this pathway. Deposition, interception and retention are the three processes involved in direct contamination of crops. Wet deposition is more important than dry deposition in temperature regions. Resuspension and rainsplash both belong to secondary direct deposition and became evident for e.g. radiocaesium after the Chernobyl accident. Seasonality is the varying response to radioactive contamination of crops according to the time of the year when the contamination occurs. Shortlived radionuclides (as 131 I) and those that mainly enter the foodchain by direct contamination (e.g. 137 Cs) are especially important in this connection. In particular, the contamination of cereal crops is influenced by seasonality. As a result of seasonality the impact of the Chernobyl accident on the radioactive contamination of human diet was for the same deposition density higher in southern than in northern Europe. (orig.)

Seasonal variation in the populations of Polyphagotarsonemus latus and Tetranychus bastosi in physic nut (Jatropha curcas) plantations.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosado, Jander F; Picanço, Marcelo C; Sarmento, Renato A; da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira; Pedro-Neto, Marçal; Carvalho, Marcos Alberto; Erasmo, Eduardo A L; Silva, Laila Cristina Rezende

2015-07-01

Studies on the seasonal variation of agricultural pest species are important for the establishment of integrated pest control programs. The seasonality of pest attacks on crops is affected by biotic and abiotic factors, for example, climate and natural enemies. Besides that, characteristics of the host plant, crop management, location and the pests' bioecology also affect this seasonality. The mites Polyphagotarsonemus latus (Prostigmata: Tarsonemidae) and Tetranychus bastosi (Prostigmata: Tetranychidae) are the most important pests in the cultivation of physic nut, Jatropha curcas (Euphorbiaceae). All parts of J. curcas can be used for a wide range of purposes. In addition many researchers have studied its potential for use as neat oil, as transesterified oil (biodiesel), or as a blend with diesel. However studies about physic nut pests have been little known. The objective of this study was to assess the seasonal variation of P. latus and T. bastosi in physic nut. This study was conducted at three sites in the state of Tocantins, Brazil. We monitored climatic elements and the densities of the two mite species and of their natural enemies for a period of 2 years. Attack by P. latus occurred during rainy seasons, when the photoperiod was short and the physic nut had new leaves. In contrast, attack by T. bastosi occurred during warmer seasons with longer photoperiods and stronger winds. Populations of both mites and their natural enemies were greater in sites with greater plant diversity adjacent to the plantations. The predators found in association with P. latus and T. bastosi were Euseius concordis (Acari: Phytoseiidae), spiders, Stethorus sp. (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) and Chrysoperla sp. (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae).

Insight in seasonal affective disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghaemi, S N; Sachs, G S; Baldassano, C F; Truman, C J

1997-01-01

Lack of insight complicates the evaluation and treatment of patients with psychotic and affective disorders. No studies of insight in seasonal affective disorder (SAD) have been reported. Thirty patients with SAD diagnosed by the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-III-R but no other axis I conditions were treated short-term with light-therapy. Insight was measured with the Scale to Assess Unawareness of Mental Disorder (SUMD) as modified by the authors to assess the self-report of insight into depressive symptoms. Increasing scores (1 to 5) indicated increasing unawareness of illness (i.e., less insight). SAD patients displayed a moderate amount of insight when depressed (mean SUMD score, 2.5). When recovered, they showed no significant change in insight into past depressive symptoms (mean SUMD score, 2.8). Greater insight into current depressive symptoms correlated with more depressive symptoms on the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression score ([HRSD] r = .35, P depressive symptoms that does not change after recovery, a result in agreement with studies of insight in psychosis and mania. Further, in SAD, increased severity of illness may be associated with increased insight into depressive symptoms, consistent with the hypothesis of depressive realism.

Male endocrine response to seasonally varying environmental and social factors in a neotropical primate, Cebus capucinus.

Science.gov (United States)

Schoof, Valérie A M; Bonnell, Tyler R; Jack, Katharine M; Ziegler, Toni E; Melin, Amanda D; Fedigan, Linda M

2016-04-01

Circannual variation in reproduction is pervasive in birds and mammals. In primates, breeding seasonality is variable, with seasonal birth peaks occurring even in year-round breeders. Environmental seasonality is reportedly an important contributor to the observed variation in reproductive seasonality. Given that food availability is the primary factor constraining female reproduction, predictions concerning responsiveness to environmental seasonality focus on females, with studies of males focusing primarily on social factors. We examined the influence of both environmental and social factors on male fecal testosterone (fT) and glucocorticoids (fGC) in moderately seasonally breeding white-faced capuchin monkeys (Cebus capucinus) in Costa Rica. Over 17 months, we collected 993 fecal samples from 14 males in three groups. We used LMM to simultaneously examine the relative effects of photoperiod, fruit biomass, rainfall, temperature, female reproductive status (i.e., number of periovulatory periods, POPs), and male age and dominance rank on monthly fT and fGC levels. Male age and rank had large effects on fT and fGC. Additionally, some hormone variation was explained by environmental factors: photoperiod in the previous month (i.e., lagged photoperiod) was the best environmental predictor of monthly fT levels, whereas fGC levels were best explained by lagged photoperiod, fruit biomass, and rainfall. POPs predicted monthly fT and fGC, but this effect was reduced when all variables were considered simultaneously, possibly because lagged photoperiod and POP were highly correlated. Males may use photoperiod as a cue predicting circannual trends in the temporal distribution of fertile females, while also fine-tuning short-term hormone increases to the actual presence of ovulatory females, which may occur at any time during the year. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Extended season for northern butterflies.

Science.gov (United States)

Karlsson, Bengt

2014-07-01

Butterflies are like all insects in that they are temperature sensitive and a changing climate with higher temperatures might effect their phenology. Several studies have found support for earlier flight dates among the investigated species. A comparative study with data from a citizen science project, including 66 species of butterflies in Sweden, was undertaken, and the result confirms that most butterfly species now fly earlier during the season. This is especially evident for butterflies overwintering as adults or as pupae. However, the advancement in phenology is correlated with flight date, and some late season species show no advancement or have even postponed their flight dates and are now flying later in the season. The results also showed that latitude had a strong effect on the adult flight date, and most of the investigated species showed significantly later flights towards the north. Only some late flying species showed an opposite trend, flying earlier in the north. A majority of the investigated species in this study showed a general response to temperature and advanced their flight dates with warmer temperatures (on average they advanced their flight dates by 3.8 days/°C), although not all species showed this response. In essence, a climate with earlier springs and longer growing seasons seems not to change the appearance patterns in a one-way direction. We now see butterflies on the wings both earlier and later in the season and some consequences of these patterns are discussed. So far, studies have concentrated mostly on early season butterfly-plant interactions but also late season studies are needed for a better understanding of long-term population consequences.

Foraging decisions, patch use, and seasonality in egrets (Aves: ciconiiformes)

Science.gov (United States)

Erwin, R.M.

1985-01-01

Feeding snowy (Egretta thula) and great (Casmerodius albus) egrets were observed during 2 breeding seasons in coastal New Jersey and 2 brief winter periods in northeast Florida (USA). A number of tests based on assumptions of foraging models, predictions from foraging theory, and earlier empirical tests concerning time allocation and movement in foraging patches was made. Few of the expectations based on foraging theory and/or assumptions were supported by the empirical evidence. Snowy egrets fed with greater intensity and efficiency during the breeding season (when young were being fed) than during winter. They also showed some tendency to leave patches when their capture rate declined, and they spent more time foraging in patches when other birds were present nearby. Great egrets showed few of these tendencies, although they did leave patches when their intercapture intervals increased. Satiation differences had some influence on feeding rates in snowy egrets, but only at the end of feeding bouts. Some individuals of both species revisited areas in patches that had recently been exploited, and success rates were usually higher after the 2nd visit. Apparently, for predators of active prey, short-term changes in resource availability ('resource depression') may be more important than resource depletion, a common assumption in most optimal foraging theory models.

Seasonal transfer of oxygen isotopes from precipitation and soil to the tree ring: source water versus needle water enrichment.

Science.gov (United States)

Treydte, Kerstin; Boda, Sonja; Graf Pannatier, Elisabeth; Fonti, Patrick; Frank, David; Ullrich, Bastian; Saurer, Matthias; Siegwolf, Rolf; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Werner, Willy; Gessler, Arthur

2014-05-01

For accurate interpretation of oxygen isotopes in tree rings (δ(18) O), it is necessary to disentangle the mechanisms underlying the variations in the tree's internal water cycle and to understand the transfer of source versus leaf water δ(18) O to phloem sugars and stem wood. We studied the seasonal transfer of oxygen isotopes from precipitation and soil water through the xylem, needles and phloem to the tree rings of Larix decidua at two alpine sites in the Lötschental (Switzerland). Weekly resolved δ(18) O records of precipitation, soil water, xylem and needle water, phloem organic matter and tree rings were developed. Week-to-week variations in needle-water (18) O enrichment were strongly controlled by weather conditions during the growing season. These short-term variations were, however, not significantly fingerprinted in tree-ring δ(18) O. Instead, seasonal trends in tree-ring δ(18) O predominantly mirrored trends in the source water, including recent precipitation and soil water pools. Modelling results support these findings: seasonal tree-ring δ(18) O variations are captured best when the week-to-week variations of the leaf water signal are suppressed. Our results suggest that climate signals in tree-ring δ(18) O variations should be strongest at temperate sites with humid conditions and precipitation maxima during the growing season. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

End-of-season heating fuel report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

The year-end report notes that the 1991-92 heating season had lower average oil prices (retail home heating fuel) than the past two winters and prices remained relatively stable throughout the season. This year, the heating season average was $.87 per gallon, $1.05 for kerosene, and $1.33 for propane

A spatial and seasonal description of return-levels for the Berlin-Brandenburg region (Germany)

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Madlen; Rust, Henning W.; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

Extreme precipitation events have a strong impact on the environment, society and economy. Besides the direct effect, e.g. damage due to hail, extreme precipitation can cause flood events, mudslides and increased erosion, which in turn lead to serious damage. Typically, return levels derived from annual maxima of daily precipitation sums are used for the design of hydraulic structures or for risk assessment in insurance companies. Seasonally or monthly resolved return levels are rarely considered, although they provide additional information: the higher temporal resolution can be beneficial for risk management, e.g. for agriculture or tourism sector. In addition, annual return levels derived from monthly maxima offer lower uncertainties, since a larger data basis are used for estimation. Here, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) is used to calculate monthly resolved return levels for 323 stations in the region Berlin-Brandenburg (Germany). Instead of estimating the parameters of the GEV for each month separately, the seasonal variation is captured by harmonic functions. This natural approach is particularly suitable for an efficient characterization of the seasonal variation of extreme precipitation. In a first step, a statistical model is developed for each station separately to estimate the monthly return levels. Besides the seasonal smoothness, also smoothness in space is exploited here. We use functions of longitude, latitude and altitude to describe the spatial variation of GEV parameters in the second step. Thus, uncertainty is reduced at gauges with short time series and estimates for ungauged sites can be obtained in a meaningful way.

A longitudinal study investigating the prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus genotype B in seasonally communal dairy herds.

Science.gov (United States)

Voelk, V; Graber, H U; van den Borne, B H P; Sartori, C; Steiner, A; Bodmer, M; Haerdi-Landerer, M C

2014-07-01

Staphylococcus aureus is a major mastitis-causing pathogen. Various genotypes have been recently identified in Switzerland but Staph. aureus genotype B (GTB) was the only genotype associated with high within-herd prevalence. The risk of introducing this Staph. aureus genotype into a herd may be increased by frequent animal movements. This may also be the case when cows from different herds of origin are commingled and share their milking equipment for a limited period of time. The aim of the present study was to determine the prevalence of Staph. aureus GTB in seasonally communal dairy herds before and after a summer period when dairy farming is characterized by mixing cows from different herds of origin in 1 communal operation. In addition, the environment was investigated to identify potential Staph. aureus GTB reservoirs relevant for transmission of the disease. A total of 829 cows from 110 herds of origin in 9 communal operations were included in the study. Composite milk samples were collected from all cows during the first or second milking after arrival at the communal operation and again shortly before the end of the season. Swab samples from the environment, involved personnel, and herding dogs present were collected before the cows arrived. At the end of the season, sampling of personnel was repeated. All samples were analyzed for the presence of Staph. aureus GTB using an established quantitative PCR. At the beginning of the season, Staph. aureus GTB-positive cows were identified in 7 out of 9 communal operations and the within-communal operation prevalence ranged from 2.2 to 38.9%. At the second sampling, all communal operations were Staph. aureus GTB positive, showing within-communal operation prevalence from 1 to 72.1%. The between-herd of origin prevalence increased from 27.3 to 56.6% and the cow-level prevalence increased from 11.2% at the beginning of the season to 29.6% at the end of the season. On 3 different communal operations, Staph. aureus

Global biogeography of seed dormancy is determined by seasonality and seed size: a case study in the legumes.

Science.gov (United States)

Rubio de Casas, Rafael; Willis, Charles G; Pearse, William D; Baskin, Carol C; Baskin, Jerry M; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine

2017-06-01

Seed dormancy is expected to provide ecological advantages by adjusting germination to the favorable growth period. However, many species produce nondormant seeds, particularly in wet tropical forests, a biogeographic pattern that is not well accounted for in current models. We hypothesized that the global distribution of dormant seeds derives from their adaptive value in predictably fluctuating (i.e. seasonal) environments. However, the advantage conferred by dormancy might ultimately depend on other seed attributes, particularly size. This general model was tested within a phylogenetically informed framework using a data set comprising > 216 000 world-wide observations of Fabaceae, spanning three orders of magnitude in seed size and including both dormant and nondormant seeds. Our results confirmed our hypothesis: nondormant seeds can only evolve in climates with long growing seasons and/or in lineages that produce larger seeds. Conversely, dormancy should be evolutionarily stable in temperate lineages with small seeds. When the favorable season is fleeting, seed dormancy is the only adaptive strategy. Based on these results, we predict that, within a given lineage, taxa producing larger, nondormant seeds will necessarily predominate in aseasonal environments, while plants bearing small, dormant seeds will be dominant under short growing seasons. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Seasonal timing in a warming world : Plasticity of seasonal timing of growth and reproduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Salis, Lucia

2015-01-01

In seasonal environments the timing of various biological processes is crucial for growth, survival and reproductive success of an individual. Nowadays, rapid large-scale climate change is altering species’ seasonal timing (phenology) in many eco¬systems. In this thesis Lucia Salis focuses on the

An effective algorithm for approximating adaptive behavior in seasonal environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sainmont, Julie; Andersen, Ken Haste; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro

2015-01-01

Behavior affects most aspects of ecological processes and rates, and yet modeling frameworks which efficiently predict and incorporate behavioral responses into ecosystem models remain elusive. Behavioral algorithms based on life-time optimization, adaptive dynamics or game theory are unsuited...... for large global models because of their high computational demand. We compare an easily integrated, computationally efficient behavioral algorithm known as Gilliam's rule against the solution from a life-history optimization. The approximation takes into account only the current conditions to optimize...... behavior; the so-called "myopic approximation", "short sighted", or "static optimization". We explore the performance of the myopic approximation with diel vertical migration (DVM) as an example of a daily routine, a behavior with seasonal dependence that trades off predation risk with foraging...

A Malthusian Model for all Seasons

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sharp, Paul Richard; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

It has become popular to argue (e.g. Clark 2007) that all societies were Malthusian until about 1800. At the same time, the phenomenon of surplus labour is well-documented for historical (as well as modern) pre-industrial societies. This study discusses the paradox of surplus labour in a Malthusian...... economy. Inspired by the work of Boserup (1965) and others, and in contrast to the Lewis (1954) approach, we suggest that the phenomenon of surplus labour is best understood through an acceptance of the importance of seasonality in agriculture. Boserup observed that the harvest season was invariably...... associated with labour shortages (the high-season bottleneck on production), although there might be labour surplus during the low season. We introduce the concept of seasonality into a stylized Malthusian model, and endogenize the extent of agricultural labour input, which is then used to calculate labour...

Seasonal superoxide overproduction and endothelial activation in guinea-pig heart; seasonal oxidative stress in rats and humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Konior, Anna; Klemenska, Emilia; Brudek, Magdalena; Podolecka, Ewa; Czarnowska, Elżbieta; Beręsewicz, Andrzej

2011-04-01

Seasonality in endothelial dysfunction and oxidative stress was noted in humans and rats, suggesting it is a common phenomenon of a potential clinical relevance. We aimed at studying (i) seasonal variations in cardiac superoxide (O(2)(-)) production in rodents and in 8-isoprostane urinary excretion in humans, (ii) the mechanism of cardiac O(2)(-) overproduction occurring in late spring/summer months in rodents, (iii) whether this seasonal O(2)(-)-overproduction is associated with a pro-inflammatory endothelial activation, and (iv) how the summer-associated changes compare to those caused by diabetes, a classical cardiovascular risk factor. Langendorff-perfused guinea-pig and rat hearts generated ~100% more O(2)(-), and human subjects excreted 65% more 8-isoprostane in the summer vs. other seasons. Inhibitors of NADPH oxidase, xanthine oxidase, and NO synthase inhibited the seasonal O(2)(-)-overproduction. In the summer vs. other seasons, cardiac NADPH oxidase and xanthine oxidase activity, and protein expression were increased, the endothelial NO synthase and superoxide dismutases were downregulated, and, in guinea-pig hearts, adhesion molecules upregulation and the endothelial glycocalyx destruction associated these changes. In guinea-pig hearts, the summer and a streptozotocin-induced diabetes mediated similar changes, yet, more severe endothelial activation associated the diabetes. These findings suggest that the seasonal oxidative stress is a common phenomenon, associated, at least in guinea-pigs, with the endothelial activation. Nonetheless, its biological meaning (regulatory vs. deleterious) remains unclear. Upregulated NADPH oxidase and xanthine oxidase and uncoupled NO synthase are the sources of the seasonal O(2)(-)-overproduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of growth, non-structural carbohydrates and C stable isotopes in a Mediterranean beech forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Scartazza, Andrea; Moscatello, Stefano; Matteucci, Giorgio; Battistelli, Alberto; Brugnoli, Enrico

2013-07-01

Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of growth, non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) and carbon isotope composition (δ(13)C) of NSC were studied in a beech forest of Central Italy over a 2-year period characterized by different environmental conditions. The net C assimilated by forest trees was mainly used to sustain growth early in the season and to accumulate storage carbohydrates in trunk and root wood in the later part of the season, before leaf shedding. Growth and NSC concentration dynamics were only slightly affected by the reduced soil water content (SWC) during the drier year. Conversely, the carbon isotope analysis on NSC revealed seasonal and inter-annual variations of photosynthetic and post-carboxylation fractionation processes, with a significant increase in δ(13)C of wood and leaf soluble sugars in the drier summer year than in the wetter one. The highly significant correlation between δ(13)C of leaf soluble sugars and SWC suggests a decrease of the canopy C isotope discrimination and, hence, an increased water-use efficiency with decreasing soil water availability. This may be a relevant trait for maintaining an acceptable plant water status and a relatively high C sink capacity during dry seasonal periods. Our results suggest a short- to medium-term homeostatic response of the Collelongo beech stand to variations in water availability and solar radiation, indicating that this Mediterranean forest was able to adjust carbon-water balance in order to prevent C depletion and to sustain plant growth and reserve accumulation during relatively dry seasons.

Assessing Sahelian vegetation and stress from seasonal time series of polar orbiting and geostationary satellite imagery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Jørgen Lundegaard

that short term variations in anomalies from seasonally detrended time series of indices could carry information on vegetation stress was examined and confirmed. However, it was not found sufficiently robust on pixel level to be implemented for monitoring vegetation water stress on a per-pixel basis...... provide good sensitivity to canopy water content, which can make vegetation stress detection possible. Furthermore, the high frequency observations in the optical spectrum now available from geostationary instruments have the potential for detection of changes in vegetation related surface properties...... on short timescales, which are challenging from polar orbiting instruments. Geostationary NDVI and the NIR and SWIR based Shortwave Infrared Water Stress Index (SIWSI) indices are compared with extensive field data from the Dahra site, supplemented by data from the Agoufou and Demokeya sites. The indices...

Short-term effects of ambient air pollution on pediatric outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Yichang city, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Yuewei; Xie, Shuguang; Yu, Qing; Huo, Xixiang; Ming, Xiaoyan; Wang, Jing; Zhou, Yun; Peng, Zhe; Zhang, Hai; Cui, Xiuqing; Xiang, Hua; Huang, Xiji; Zhou, Ting; Chen, Weihong; Shi, Tingming

2017-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that short-term exposure to ambient air pollution was associated with pediatric hospital admissions and emergency room visits for certain respiratory diseases; however, there is limited evidence on the association between short-term air pollution exposure and pediatric outpatient visits. Our aim was to quantitatively assess the short-term effects of ambient air pollution on pediatric outpatient visits for respiratory diseases. We conducted a time-series study in Yichang city, China between Jan 1, 2014 and Dec 31, 2015. Daily counts of pediatric respiratory outpatient visits were collected from 3 large hospitals, and then linked with air pollution data from 5 air quality monitoring stations by date. We used generalized additive Poisson models to conduct linear and nonlinear exposure-response analyses between air pollutant exposures and pediatric respiratory outpatient visits, adjusting for seasonality, day of week, public holiday, temperature, and relative humidity. Each interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM 2.5 (lag 0), PM 10 (lag 0), NO 2 (lag 0), CO (lag 0), and O 3 (lag 4) concentrations was significantly associated with a 1.91% (95% CI: 0.60%, 3.23%), 2.46% (1.09%, 3.85%), 1.88% (0.49%, 3.29%), 2.00% (0.43%, 3.59%), and 1.91% (0.45%, 3.39%) increase of pediatric respiratory outpatient visits, respectively. Similarly, the nonlinear exposure-response analyses showed monotonic increases of pediatric respiratory outpatient visits by increasing air pollutant exposures, though the associations for NO 2 and CO attenuated at higher concentrations. These associations were unlikely modified by season. We did not observe significant association for SO 2 exposure. Our results suggest that short-term exposures to PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO 2 , CO, and O 3 may account for increased risk of pediatric outpatient visits for respiratory diseases, and emphasize the needs for reduction of air pollutant exposures for children. - Highlights: • PM 2

Spatiotemporal patterns of High Mountain Asia's snowmelt season identified with an automated snowmelt detection algorithm, 1987–2016

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T. Smith

2017-10-01

Full Text Available High Mountain Asia (HMA – encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountain ranges – is the primary water source for much of Asia, serving more than a billion downstream users. Many catchments receive the majority of their yearly water budget in the form of snow, which is poorly monitored by sparse in situ weather networks. Both the timing and volume of snowmelt play critical roles in downstream water provision, as many applications – such as agriculture, drinking-water generation, and hydropower – rely on consistent and predictable snowmelt runoff. Here, we examine passive microwave data across HMA with five sensors (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR-E, AMSR2, and GPM from 1987 to 2016 to track the timing of the snowmelt season – defined here as the time between maximum passive microwave signal separation and snow clearance. We validated our method against climate model surface temperatures, optical remote-sensing snow-cover data, and a manual control dataset (n = 2100, 3 variables at 25 locations over 28 years; our algorithm is generally accurate within 3–5 days. Using the algorithm-generated snowmelt dates, we examine the spatiotemporal patterns of the snowmelt season across HMA. The climatically short (29-year time series, along with complex interannual snowfall variations, makes determining trends in snowmelt dates at a single point difficult. We instead identify trends in snowmelt timing by using hierarchical clustering of the passive microwave data to determine trends in self-similar regions. We make the following four key observations. (1 The end of the snowmelt season is trending almost universally earlier in HMA (negative trends. Changes in the end of the snowmelt season are generally between 2 and 8 days decade−1 over the 29-year study period (5–25 days total. The length of the snowmelt season is thus shrinking in many, though not all, regions of HMA. Some areas exhibit later peak signal separation (positive

Diurnal and seasonal variations of concentration and size distribution of nano aerosols (10-1100 nm) enclosing radon decay products in the Postojna Cave, Slovenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Bezek, M; Gregoric, A; Kávási, N; Vaupotic, J

2012-11-01

At the lowest point along the tourist route in the Postojna Cave, the activity concentration of radon ((222)Rn) short-lived decay products and number concentration and size distribution of background aerosol particles in the size range of 10-1100 nm were measured. In the warm yearly season, aerosol concentration was low (52 cm(-3)) with 21 % particles smaller than 50 nm, while in the cold season, it was higher (1238 cm(-3)) with 8 % of <50 nm particles. Radon activity concentrations were 4489 and 1108 Bq m(-3), and fractions of unattached radon decay products were 0.62 and 0.13, respectively.

Seasonal and within-canopy variation in shoot-scale resource-use efficiency trade-offs in a Norway spruce stand.

Science.gov (United States)

Tarvainen, Lasse; Räntfors, Mats; Wallin, Göran

2015-11-01

Previous leaf-scale studies of carbon assimilation describe short-term resource-use efficiency (RUE) trade-offs where high use efficiency of one resource requires low RUE of another. However, varying resource availabilities may cause long-term RUE trade-offs to differ from the short-term patterns. This may have important implications for understanding canopy-scale resource use and allocation. We used continuous gas exchange measurements collected at five levels within a Norway spruce, Picea abies (L.) karst., canopy over 3 years to assess seasonal differences in the interactions between shoot-scale resource availability (light, water and nitrogen), net photosynthesis (An ) and the use efficiencies of light (LUE), water (WUE) and nitrogen (NUE) for carbon assimilation. The continuous data set was used to develop and evaluate multiple regression models for predicting monthly shoot-scale An . These models showed that shoot-scale An was strongly dependent on light availability and was generally well described with simple one- or two-parameter models. WUE peaked in spring, NUE in summer and LUE in autumn. However, the relative importance of LUE for carbon assimilation increased with canopy depth at all times. Our results suggest that accounting for seasonal and within-canopy trade-offs may be important for RUE-based modelling of canopy carbon uptake. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biology and endocrinology of ovulation, pregnancy and parturition in the dog.

Science.gov (United States)

Concannon, P W; McCann, J P; Temple, M

1989-01-01

There is considerable variation among bitches in commonly encountered intervals between cycles (5-12 months), durations of anoestrus (1-8 months), durations of follicular phase pro-oestrus (3-21 days) and periovulatory oestrous behavior (3-21 days), intervals from preovulatory LH surge to oestrus onset (-2 to 5 days), and intervals from fertile mating to parturition (57-68 days). The extent of variation within bitches ranges from slight to great. However, there appears to be very little variation in the intervals from LH surge to ovulation (2 days), to post-ovulatory oocyte maturation (approximately 4 days), to implantation (approximately 18 days), to selected developmental stages of pregnancy, or to parturition (64-66 days). There are no tests diagnostic of early pregnancy. The onset times of persistent pregnancy-specific changes have been estimated, including radio-opaque fetal details (Day 46), elevated blood prolactin values (Day 35), elevated blood relaxin values (Day 25), echogenic heart beats (Day 24) and embryonic vesicles (Day 19), and potentially palpable uterine enlargements (Day 21). As in humans, there is an anaemia of pregnancy involving a 30% reduction in haematocrit and an increased incidence of insulin resistance during the second half of gestation. Ovarian progesterone is required throughout pregnancy. LH and prolactin are luteotrophic in the pregnant bitch as well as during the 2-month luteal phase of the non-pregnant bitch. Parturition follows a luteolysis which occurs during an increase in prostaglandin F-2 alpha that begins 36 h pre partum. Factors regulating the duration of anoestrus are not known but termination of anoestrus is associated with increased pulsatile secretion of LH.

The impact of short-term heat storage on the ice-albedo feedback loop

Science.gov (United States)

Polashenski, C.; Wright, N.; Perovich, D. K.; Song, A.; Deeb, E. J.

2016-12-01

The partitioning of solar energy in the ice-ocean-atmosphere environment is a powerful control over Arctic sea ice mass balance. Ongoing transitions of the sea ice toward a younger, thinner state are enhancing absorption of solar energy and contributing to further declines in sea ice in a classic ice-albedo feedback. Here we investigate the solar energy balance over shorter timescales. In particular, we are concerned with short term delays in the transfer of absorbed solar energy to the ice caused by heat storage in the upper ocean. By delaying the realization of ice melt, and hence albedo decline, heat storage processes effectively retard the intra-season ice-albedo feedback. We seek to quantify the impact and variability of such intra-season storage delays on full season energy absorption. We use in-situ data collected from Arctic Observing Network (AON) sea ice sites, synthesized with the results of imagery processed from high resolution optical satellites, and basin-scale remote sensing products to approach the topic. AON buoys are used to monitor the storage and flux of heat, while satellite imagery allows us to quantify the evolution of surrounding ice conditions and predict the aggregate scale solar absorption. We use several test sites as illustrative cases and demonstrate that temporary heat storage can have substantial impacts on seasonal energy absorption and ice loss. A companion to this work is presented by N. Wright at this meeting.

Short-Term Effects of Changing Precipitation Patterns on Shrub-Steppe Grasslands: Seasonal Watering Is More Important than Frequency of Watering Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Densmore-McCulloch, Justine A; Thompson, Donald L; Fraser, Lauchlan H

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns. Droughts may become longer and more frequent, and the timing and intensity of precipitation may change. We tested how shifting precipitation patterns, both seasonally and by frequency of events, affects soil nitrogen availability, plant biomass and diversity in a shrub-steppe temperate grassland along a natural productivity gradient in Lac du Bois Grasslands Protected Area near Kamloops, British Columbia, Canada. We manipulated seasonal watering patterns by either exclusively watering in the spring or the fall. To simulate spring precipitation we restricted precipitation inputs in the fall, then added 50% more water than the long term average in the spring, and vice-versa for the fall precipitation treatment. Overall, the amount of precipitation remained roughly the same. We manipulated the frequency of rainfall events by either applying water weekly (frequent) or monthly (intensive). After 2 years, changes in the seasonality of watering had greater effects on plant biomass and diversity than changes in the frequency of watering. Fall watering reduced biomass and increased species diversity, while spring watering had little effect. The reduction in biomass in fall watered treatments was due to a decline in grasses, but not forbs. Plant available N, measured by Plant Root Simulator (PRS)-probes, increased from spring to summer to fall, and was higher in fall watered treatments compared to spring watered treatments when measured in the fall. The only effect observed due to frequency of watering events was greater extractable soil N in monthly applied treatments compared to weekly watering treatments. Understanding the effects of changing precipitation patterns on grasslands will allow improved grassland conservation and management in the face of global climatic change, and here we show that if precipitation is more abundant in the fall, compared to the spring, grassland primary productivity will likely be

Technical Efficiency of Wet Season Melon Farming

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Ananti Yekti

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Melon is one of high-value horticulture commodity which is cultivated widely in Kulon Progo regency. The nature of agricultural products is heavily dependent on the season, so it causes the prices of agricultural products always fluctuated every time. In wet season the price of agricultural products tends to be more expensive. Melon cultivation in wet season provide an opportunity to earn higher profits than in the dry season. The price of agricultural products tends to be more expensive in wet season, thus melon cultivation in wet season prospectively generate high profits. In order to achieve high profitability, melon farming has to be done efficiently. Objective of this study was to 1 determined the factors that influence melon production in wet season 2 measured technical efficiency of melon farming and 3 identified the factors that influanced technical efficiency. Data collected during April – June 2014. Location determined by multistage cluster sampling. 45 samples of farmers who cultivated melon during wet season obtained based on quota sampling technique. Technical efficiency was measured using Cobb-Douglas Stochastic Frontier. The result reveals that 1 land use, quantity of seed, K fertilizer contributed significantly increasing melon production, while N fertilizer decreased melon production significantly 2 technical efficiency indeces ranged from 0.40 to 0.99, with a mean of  0.77; 3 farmer’s experience gave significant influence to technical efficiency of melon farming in wet season.

Seasonal emanation of radon at Ghuttu, northwest Himalaya: Differentiation of atmospheric temperature and pressure influences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamra, Leena

2015-01-01

Continuous monitoring of radon along with meteorological parameters has been carried out in a seismically active area of Garhwal region, northwest Himalaya, within the frame work of earthquake precursory research. Radon measurements are carried out by using a gamma ray detector installed in the air column at a depth of 10 m in a 68 m deep borehole. The analysis of long time series for 2006–2012 shows strong seasonal variability masked by diurnal and multi-day variations. Isolation of a seasonal cycle by minimising short-time by 31 day running average shows a strong seasonal variation with unambiguous dependence on atmospheric temperature and pressure. The seasonal characteristics of radon concentrations are positively correlated to atmospheric temperature (R=0.95) and negatively correlated to atmospheric pressure (R=−0.82). The temperature and pressure variation in their annual progressions are negatively correlated. The calculations of partial correlation coefficient permit us to conclude that atmospheric temperature plays a dominant role in controlling the variability of radon in borehole, 71% of the variability in radon arises from the variation in atmospheric temperature and about 6% of the variability is contributed by atmospheric pressure. The influence of pressure variations in an annual cycle appears to be a pseudo-effect, resulting from the negative correlation between temperature and pressure variations. Incorporation of these results explains the varying and even contradictory claims regarding the influence of the pressure variability on radon changes in the published literature. Temperature dependence, facilitated by the temperature gradient in the borehole, controls the transportation of radon from the deep interior to the surface. - Highlights: • Seasonal variability of radon in borehole. • Influence of atmospheric temperature and pressure on radon variability. • Partial correlation coefficient.

Seasonal Overturning Circulation in the Red Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, F.; Hoteit, I.; Koehl, A.

2010-12-01

The Red Sea exhibits a distinct seasonal overturning circulation. In winter, a typical two-layer exchange structure, with a fresher inflow from the Gulf of Aden on top of an outflow from the Red Sea, is established. In summer months (June to September) this circulation pattern is changed to a three-layer structure: a surface outflow from the Red Sea on top of a subsurface intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water and a weakened deep outflow. This seasonal variability is studied using a general circulation model, MITgcm, with 6 hourly NCEP atmospheric forcing. The model is able to reproduce the observed seasonal variability very well. The forcing mechanisms of the seasonal variability related to seasonal surface wind stress and buoyancy flux, and water mass transformation processes associated with the seasonal overturning circulation are analyzed and presented.

Dim light at night disrupts the short-day response in Siberian hamsters.

Science.gov (United States)

Ikeno, Tomoko; Weil, Zachary M; Nelson, Randy J

2014-02-01

Photoperiodic regulation of physiology, morphology, and behavior is crucial for many animals to survive seasonally variable conditions unfavorable for reproduction and survival. The photoperiodic response in mammals is mediated by nocturnal secretion of melatonin under the control of a circadian clock. However, artificial light at night caused by recent urbanization may disrupt the circadian clock, as well as the photoperiodic response by blunting melatonin secretion. Here we examined the effect of dim light at night (dLAN) (5lux of light during the dark phase) on locomotor activity rhythms and short-day regulation of reproduction, body mass, pelage properties, and immune responses of male Siberian hamsters. Short-day animals reduced gonadal and body mass, decreased spermatid nuclei and sperm numbers, molted to a whiter pelage, and increased pelage density compared to long-day animals. However, animals that experienced short days with dLAN did not show these short-day responses. Moreover, short-day specific immune responses were altered in dLAN conditions. The nocturnal activity pattern was blunted in dLAN hamsters, consistent with the observation that dLAN changed expression of the circadian clock gene, Period1. In addition, we demonstrated that expression levels of genes implicated in the photoperiodic response, Mel-1a melatonin receptor, Eyes absent 3, thyroid stimulating hormone receptor, gonadotropin-releasing hormone, and gonadotropin-inhibitory hormone, were higher in dLAN animals than those in short-day animals. These results suggest that dLAN disturbs the circadian clock function and affects the molecular mechanisms of the photoperiodic response. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring the Factors Driving Seasonal Farmland Abandonment: A Case Study at the Regional Level in Hunan Province, Central China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhonglei Yu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Farmland abandonment, including perennial and seasonal abandonment, is an important process of land use change that matters most to food security. Although there is a great deal of studies on farmland abandonment, seasonal abandonment, which is as serious as perennial abandonment, has attracted little academic attention. This paper takes Hunan Province in central China as its study area and uses a spatial regression model to examine the driving factors of seasonal farmland abandonment at the county level. Our results show that farmland abandonment has striking spatial relativity, and there are two clustering zones with a high index of farmland abandonment (IFA in the Dongting plain and the basin in south-central Hunan, while a clustering zone of low IFA can be found in the mountains of southwest Hunan. Farmland abandonment at the regional level is negatively affected by the land productive potentialities, proportion of mechanized planting, ratio of effective irrigation, and distance to provincial capital, while it is positively associated with the variables mountainous terrain, per capita farmland area, and labor shortage. Additionally, farmland abandonment is also affected by adjacent areas through its spatial dependence. In short, seasonal farmland abandonment is also driven integratedly by the socioeconomic and environmental dimensions and spatial interaction of farm abandonment.

Seasonal aspects of sleep in the Djungarian hamster

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deboer Tom

2003-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Changes in photoperiod and ambient temperature trigger seasonal adaptations in the physiology and behaviour of many species, including the Djungarian hamster. Exposure of the hamsters to a short photoperiod and low ambient temperature leads to a reduction of the polyphasic distribution of sleep and waking over the light and dark period. In contrast, a long photoperiod enhances the daily sleep-wake amplitude leading to a decline of slow-wave activity in NREM sleep within the light period. It is unknown whether these changes can be attributed specifically to photoperiod and/or ambient temperature, or whether endogenous components are contributing factors. The influence of endogenous factors was investigated by recording sleep in Djungarian hamsters invariably maintained at a low ambient temperature and fully adapted to a short photoperiod. The second recording was performed when they had returned to summer physiology, despite the maintenance of the 'winter' conditions. Results Clear winter-summer differences were seen in sleep distribution, while total sleep time was unchanged. A significantly higher light-dark cycle modulation in NREM sleep, REM sleep and waking was observed in hamsters in the summer physiological state compared to those in the winter state. Moreover, only in summer, REM sleep episodes were longer and waking bouts were shorter during the light period compared to the dark period. EEG power in the slow-wave range (0.75–4.0 Hz in both NREM sleep and REM sleep was higher in animals in the summer physiological state than in those in the 'winter' state. In winter SWA in NREM sleep was evenly distributed over the 24 h, while in summer it decreased during the light period and increased during the dark period. Conclusion Endogenous changes in the organism underlie the differences in sleep-wake redistribution we have observed previously in hamsters recorded in a short and long photoperiod.

Seasonal variations in sleep disorders of nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Yuanmay; Lam, Calvin; Chen, Su-Ru; Sithole, Trevor; Chung, Min-Huey

2017-04-01

To investigate the difference between nurses and the general population regarding seasonal variations in sleep disorders during 2004-2008. The effects of season and group interaction on sleep disorders with regard to different comorbidities were also examined. Studies on seasonal variations in sleep disorders were mainly conducted in Norway for the general population. Furthermore, whether different comorbidities cause seasonal variations in sleep disorders in nurses remains unknown. A retrospective study. Data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database were used in generalised estimating equation Poisson distribution models to investigate the differences in sleep disorders between nurses and the general population diagnosed with sleep disorders (each n = 7643) as well as the interaction effects of sleep disorders between the groups with respect to different seasons. Furthermore, the interaction effects between groups and seasons on sleep disorders in the subgroups of comorbid anxiety disorders and depressive disorders were studied. Both the nurses and the general population had fewer outpatient visits for sleep disorders in winter than in other seasons. The nurses had fewer outpatient visits for sleep disorders than the general population did in each season. The nurses had more outpatient visits for sleep disorders in winter than in summer compared with the general population in the comorbid depressive disorder subgroup but not in the comorbid anxiety disorder subgroup. Nurses and the general population exhibited similar seasonal patterns of sleep disorders, but nurses had fewer outpatient visits for sleep disorders than the general population did in each season. For nurses with comorbid depressive disorders, outpatient visits for sleep disorders were more numerous in winter than in summer, potentially because nurses with comorbid depressive disorders are affected by shorter daylight exposure during winter. Depression and daylight exposure may

Evaluation of a nutritional strategy to increase ovulation rate in merino ewes mated in late spring-early summer.

Science.gov (United States)

Nottle, M B; Kleemann, D O; Grosser, T I; Seamark, R F

1997-07-01

A nutritional strategy for increasing ovulation rate in Merino ewes mated in late spring-early summer was evaluated on two commercial farms. The strategy used the 'ram effect' to induce oestrus in seasonally anoestrus ewes and supplementary feeding of lupin grain six days prior to oestrus to increase ovulation rate. Ewes that had been isolated from rams for 6 weeks were exposed to vasectomised rams for 2 weeks and then mated to fertile rams for 6 weeks. Feeding 500 g lupins/head/day for 14 days commencing 12 days after the introduction of vasectomised rams, increased the number of ovulations from 126 to 146 per 100 ewes exposed to rams (P < 0.05). This increase was reflected in an improvement in fecundity (lambs born per ewe lambing; P < 0.05) but not fertility (ewes lambing per ewe mated to rams). Net reproductive performance (the product of fertility, fecundity and lamb survival) was increased by 11 lambs weaned per 100 ewes exposed to rams due to lupin supplementation at mating.

Boll weevil within season and off-season activity monitored using a pheromone-and-glue reusable tube trap

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robério Carlos dos Santos Neves

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The boll weevil colonizes cotton fields as early as cotton squaring, causing significant losses due to feeding and protected development inside fruiting structures throughout crop phenology. Successful control depends on control of adults and their accurate detection when they colonize the crops. The commercial trap and boll weevil attract-and-control tubes (BWACT are the only available tools to monitor and attract-and-kill boll weevil, despite limitation in efficacy, and insecticide in BWACT is not allowed in organic production. A grandlure-and-glue reusable and insecticide-free tube (GGT made with polyvinyl chloride tube, smeared with entomological glue, and lured with pheromone was tested to detect boll weevil activity across various seasons. Boll weevil showed activity during growing season and off-season from 2009 to 2012 in the Semiarid and with higher numbers captured in GGT in comparisons to commercial traps. GGT was able to detect early weevils in the field right after planting. Further, the overall averages resulted in 34-, 16.8-, and 7.5-times more weevils captured in GGTs compared to the traps during stalk destruction in the Semiarid 2011 and Cerrado season 2012/13 and during the harvesting period in the Cerrado season 2011/12, respectively. Therefore, boll weevils were captured actively during season and off-season and early captures obtained in GGT compared to traps showed a better correlation between captures and square damage.

Short- or long-rest intervals during repeated-sprint training in soccer?

Science.gov (United States)

Iaia, F. Marcello; Fiorenza, Matteo; Larghi, Luca; Alberti, Giampietro; Millet, Grégoire P.; Girard, Olivier

2017-01-01

The present study compared the effects of two repeated-sprint training (RST) programs, differing in duration of the between-sprint rest intervals, on various soccer-related exercise performances. For 5 weeks during the competitive season, twenty-nine young trained male soccer players either replaced two of their habitual fitness conditioning sessions with RST characterized by short (5–15; n = 9) or long (5–30; n = 10) rest intervals, or served as control (n = 10). The 5–15 and 5–30 protocols consisted of 6 repetitions of 30-m (~5 s) straight-line sprints interspersed with 15 s or 30 s of passive recovery, respectively. 5–15 improved 200-m sprint time (2.0±1.5%; pRecovery Test Level 2 increased following 5–15 (11.4±5.0%; psoccer players, RST over a 5-week in-season period is an efficient means to simultaneously develop different components of fitness relevant to match performance, with different benefits induced by shorter compared to longer rest intervals. PMID:28199402

Recent Changes in the Arctic Melt Season

Science.gov (United States)

Stroeve, Julienne; Markus, Thorsten; Meier, Walter N.; Miller, Jeff

2007-01-01

Melt-season duration, melt-onset and freeze-up dates are derived from satellite passive microwave data and analyzed from 1979 to 2005 over Arctic sea ice. Results indicate a shift towards a longer melt season, particularly north of Alaska and Siberia, corresponding to large retreats of sea ice observed in these regions. Although there is large interannual and regional variability in the length of the melt season, the Arctic is experiencing an overall lengthening of the melt season at a rate of about 2 weeks decade(sup -1). In fact, all regions in the Arctic (except for the central Arctic) have statistically significant (at the 99% level or higher) longer melt seasons by greater than 1 week decade(sup -1). The central Arctic shows a statistically significant trend (at the 98% level) of 5.4 days decade(sup -1). In 2005 the Arctic experienced its longest melt season, corresponding with the least amount of sea ice since 1979 and the warmest temperatures since the 1880s. Overall, the length of the melt season is inversely correlated with the lack of sea ice seen in September north of Alaska and Siberia, with a mean correlation of -0.8.

Contrasting seasonal overlaps between primary and secondary growth are linked to wood anatomy in Mediterranean sub-shrubs.

Science.gov (United States)

Camarero, J J; Palacio, S; Montserrat-Martí, G

2013-09-01

Whole-plant approaches allow quantification of the temporal overlap between primary and secondary growth. If the amount of time available to grow is short, there may be a high temporal overlap between shoot growth and wood formation. We hypothesise that such overlap depends on the duration of the growing season and relates to wood anatomy. We evaluated wood anatomy, shoot longitudinal and radial growth rates, fine root production and the concentrations of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) in the wood of six sub-shrub species growing in sites with contrasting climatic conditions (Lepidium subulatum, Linum suffruticosum, Salvia lavandulifolia, Satureja montana, Ononis fruticosa, Echinospartum horridum). Sub-shrub species living in sites with a short growing season displayed a high overlap between aboveground primary and secondary growth and formed wide vessels, whereas species from the warmest and driest sites presented the reverse characteristics. The highest overlap was linked to a rapid shoot extension and thickening through the enhanced hydraulic conductivity provided by wide vessels. The reductions in NSC concentrations when growth peaked were low or moderate, indicating that sub-shrubs accumulate NSC in excess, as do trees. The temporal overlap among primary and secondary growth in woody plants may be connected to the duration and rates of shoot and wood growth, which in turn depend on the vessel lumen area. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Harvest season, high polluted season in East China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang Xin; Song Yu; Li Mengmeng; Li Jianfeng; Zhu Tong

2012-01-01

East China, a major agricultural zone with a dense population, suffers from severe air pollution during June, the agricultural harvest season, every year. Crop burning emits tremendous amounts of combustion products into the atmosphere, not only rapidly degrading the local air quality but also affecting the tropospheric chemistry, threatening public health and affecting climate change. Recently, in mid-June 2012, crop fires left a thick pall of haze over East China. We evaluated the PM 10 , PM 2.5 (particulates less than 10 and 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) and BC (black carbon) emissions by analyzing detailed census data and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing images and then simulated the consequent pollution using meteorological and dispersion models. The results show that the crop fires sweeping from the south to the north are responsible for the intensive air pollution during harvest season. It is necessary for scientists and governments to pay more attention to this issue. (letter)

Seasonal influenza activity for 2005-2006 season seems to be ending in most European countries.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paget, W.J.; Meijer, A.; Falcao, J.M.; Jong, J.C. de; Kyncl, J.; Meerhoff, T.J.; Meuwissen, L.E.; Nicoll, A.; Velden, J. van der

2006-01-01

During the 2005-2006 season, seasonal influenza epidemics started late in countries across Europe. Clinical influenza activity has only reached moderate levels and has mainly been associated with influenza B viruses. There has been co-circulation of influenza A and B viruses in many countries, and

Amygdala response to emotional faces in seasonal affective disorder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borgsted, Camilla; Ozenne, Brice; Mc Mahon, Brenda

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: Seasonal affective disorder (SAD) is characterized by seasonally recurring depression. Heightened amygdala activation to aversive stimuli is associated with major depressive disorder but its relation to SAD is unclear. We evaluated seasonal variation in amygdala activation in SAD......, we correlated change in symptom severity, assessed with The Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression - Seasonal Affective Disorder version (SIGH-SAD), with change in amygdala activation. RESULTS: We found no season-by-group, season or group effect on our aversive contrast. Independent of season, SAD...... of the presence of depressive symptoms....

Phytoestrogens and Their Metabolites in Bulk-Tank Milk: Effects of Farm Management and Season

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Steffen A.; Purup, Stig; Hansen-Møller, Jens; Thuen, Erling; Steinshamn, Håvard

2015-01-01

Phytoestrogens have structures similar to endogenous steroids and may induce or inhibit the response of hormone receptors. The objectives of the present study were to compare the effects of long-term vs. short-term grassland management in organic and conventional dairy production systems, compare organic and conventional production systems and assess seasonal variation on phytoestrogen concentrations in bulk-tank milk. The concentrations of phytoestrogens were analyzed in bulk-tank milk sampled three times in two subsequent years from 28 dairy farms: Fourteen organic (ORG) dairy farms with either short-term or long-term grassland management were paired with 14 conventional (CON) farms with respect to grassland management. Grassland management varied in terms of time since establishment. Short-term grassland management (SG) was defined as establishment or reseeding every fourth year or more often, and long-term grassland management (LG) was defined as less frequent establishment or reseeding. The proportion of red clover (Trifolium pretense L.) in the herbage was positively correlated with milk concentrations of the mammalian isoflavone equol. Therefore, organically produced bulk-tank milk contained more equol than conventionally produced milk, and milk from ORG-SG farms had more equol than milk from ORG-LG farms. Milk produced during the indoor-feeding periods had more equol than milk produced during the outdoor feeding period, because pastures contained less red clover than fields intended for silage production. Organically produced milk had also higher concentrations of the mammalian lignan enterolactone, but in contrast to equol, concentrations increased in the outdoor-feeding periods compared to the indoor-feeding periods. There were no indications of fertility problems on ORG-SG farms who had the highest red clover proportions in the herbage. This study shows that production system, grassland management, and season affect milk concentrations of phytoestrogens

Phytoestrogens and their metabolites in bulk-tank milk: effects of farm management and season.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steffen A Adler

Full Text Available Phytoestrogens have structures similar to endogenous steroids and may induce or inhibit the response of hormone receptors. The objectives of the present study were to compare the effects of long-term vs. short-term grassland management in organic and conventional dairy production systems, compare organic and conventional production systems and assess seasonal variation on phytoestrogen concentrations in bulk-tank milk. The concentrations of phytoestrogens were analyzed in bulk-tank milk sampled three times in two subsequent years from 28 dairy farms: Fourteen organic (ORG dairy farms with either short-term or long-term grassland management were paired with 14 conventional (CON farms with respect to grassland management. Grassland management varied in terms of time since establishment. Short-term grassland management (SG was defined as establishment or reseeding every fourth year or more often, and long-term grassland management (LG was defined as less frequent establishment or reseeding. The proportion of red clover (Trifolium pretense L. in the herbage was positively correlated with milk concentrations of the mammalian isoflavone equol. Therefore, organically produced bulk-tank milk contained more equol than conventionally produced milk, and milk from ORG-SG farms had more equol than milk from ORG-LG farms. Milk produced during the indoor-feeding periods had more equol than milk produced during the outdoor feeding period, because pastures contained less red clover than fields intended for silage production. Organically produced milk had also higher concentrations of the mammalian lignan enterolactone, but in contrast to equol, concentrations increased in the outdoor-feeding periods compared to the indoor-feeding periods. There were no indications of fertility problems on ORG-SG farms who had the highest red clover proportions in the herbage. This study shows that production system, grassland management, and season affect milk concentrations of

Molecular phenology in plants: in natura systems biology for the comprehensive understanding of seasonal responses under natural environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Kudoh, Hiroshi

2016-04-01

Phenology refers to the study of seasonal schedules of organisms. Molecular phenology is defined here as the study of the seasonal patterns of organisms captured by molecular biology techniques. The history of molecular phenology is reviewed briefly in relation to advances in the quantification technology of gene expression. High-resolution molecular phenology (HMP) data have enabled us to study phenology with an approach of in natura systems biology. I review recent analyses of FLOWERING LOCUS C (FLC), a temperature-responsive repressor of flowering, along the six steps in the typical flow of in natura systems biology. The extensive studies of the regulation of FLC have made this example a successful case in which a comprehensive understanding of gene functions has been progressing. The FLC-mediated long-term memory of past temperatures creates time lags with other seasonal signals, such as photoperiod and short-term temperature. Major signals that control flowering time have a phase lag between them under natural conditions, and hypothetical phase lag calendars are proposed as mechanisms of season detection in plants. Transcriptomic HMP brings a novel strategy to the study of molecular phenology, because it provides a comprehensive representation of plant functions. I discuss future perspectives of molecular phenology from the standpoints of molecular biology, evolutionary biology and ecology. © 2015 The Author. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Seasonal use of a New England estuary by foraging contingents of migratory striped bass

Science.gov (United States)

Mather, Martha E.; Pautzke, Sarah M.; Finn, John T.; Deegan, Linda A.; Muth, Robert M.

2011-01-01

Using acoustic telemetry on migratory striped bass Morone saxatilis in Plum Island Estuary (PIE), Massachusetts, we found that striped bass (335–634 mm total length) tagged in the spring and summer of 2005 (n = 14) and 2006 (n = 46) stayed in the estuary for an average of 66.0 d in 2005 and 72.2 d in 2006. Striped bass spent the most time in two specific reaches: middle Plum Island Sound and lower Rowley River. In both years, three different use-groups of striped bass were observed in PIE. Short-term visitors (n = 24) stayed in the estuary only briefly (range = 5–20 d). Two groups of seasonal residents stayed for more than 30 d, either in the Rowley River (n = 14) or in Plum Island Sound (n = 22). Within PIE, the two seasonal-resident use-groups may be foraging contingents that learn how to feed efficiently in specific parts of the estuary. These distinct within-estuary use patterns could have different implications for striped bass condition and prey impact.

Corresponding Relation between Warm Season Precipitation Extremes and Surface Air Temperature in South China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SUN; Wei; LI; Jian; YU; Ru-Cong

2013-01-01

Hourly data of 42 rain gauges over South China during 1966–2005 were used to analyze the corresponding relation between precipitation extremes and surface air temperature in the warm season(May to October).The results show that below 25℃,both daily and hourly precipitation extremes in South China increase with rising temperature.More extreme events transit to the two-time Clausius-Clapeyron(CC)relationship at lower temperatures.Daily as well as hourly precipitation extremes have a decreasing tendency nearly above 25℃,among which the decrease of hourly extremes is much more significant.In order to investigate the efects of rainfall durations,hourly precipitation extremes are presented by short duration and long duration precipitation,respectively.Results show that the dramatic decrease of hourly rainfall intensities above 25℃ is mainly caused by short duration precipitation,and long duration precipitation extremes rarely occur in South China when surface air temperature surpasses 28℃.

Causes of seasonal variations of Cs-134/137 activity concentrations in surface air

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoetzl, H.; Winkler, R.

1993-01-01

In winter months maxima of Cs-134/137 activity concentrations in air are observed at several locations in Europe. To clarify this phenomenon, from October 1991 to November 1992 we performed a program for aerosol collection on a short-term scale based on collecting intervals of 48-72 hours. The local meteorological parameters were determined simultaneously. Statistical analysis of these observations reveiled a highly significant positive correlation between Cs-137 activity concentration and the so-called 'Stagnationsindex'. Based on this relationship the seasonal variations of Cs-134/137 concentrations in ground-level air can be explained by atmospheric inversion conditions frequently occurring during fall- and wintermonths. (orig.) [de

Stress impairs new but not established relationships in seasonally social voles.

Science.gov (United States)

Anacker, Allison M J; Reitz, Kara M; Goodwin, Nastacia L; Beery, Annaliese K

2016-03-01

Affiliative social relationships are impacted by stressors and can shape responses to stress. However, the effects of stress on social relationships in different contexts are not well understood. Meadow voles provide an opportunity to study these effects on peer relationships outside of a reproductive context. In winter months, female meadow voles cohabit with peers of both sexes, and social huddling is facilitated by exposure to short, winter-like day lengths in the lab. We investigated the role of stress and corticosterone (cort) levels in social behavior in short day-housed female meadow voles. A brief forced swim elevated cort levels, and we assessed the effects of this stressor on new and established relationships between females. In pairs formed following exposure to swim stress, the stressor significantly reduced the fraction of huddling time subjects spent with a familiar partner. Swim stress did not affect partner preferences in pairs established prior to the stressor. Finally, we examined fecal glucocorticoid metabolite levels via immunoassay in voles housed under short day (10h light) versus long day (14 h light) conditions and detected higher glucocorticoid levels in long day-housed voles. These findings support a role for stress regulation in the formation of social relationships in female meadow voles, and are consistent with a potential role for seasonal variation in cort in the behavioral transition from solitary to social. Together they highlight the importance of stress and possibly glucocorticoid signaling for social behavior. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Seasonal estimates of riparian evapotranspiration using remote and in situ measurements

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Goodrich, D.C.; Scott, R.; Qi, J.; Goff, B.; Unkrich, C.L.; Moran, M.S.; Williams, D.; Schaeffer, S.; Snyder, K.; MacNish, R.; Maddock, T.; Pool, D.; Chehbouni, A.; Cooper, D.I.; Eichinger, W.E.; Shuttleworth, W.J.; Kerr, Y.; Marsett, R.; Ni, W.

2000-01-01

In many semi-arid basins during extended periods when surface snowmelt or storm runoff is absent, groundwater constitutes the primary water source for human habitation, agriculture and riparian ecosystems. Utilizing regional groundwater models in the management of these water resources requires accurate estimates of basin boundary conditions. A critical groundwater boundary condition that is closely coupled to atmospheric processes and is typically known with little certainty is seasonal riparian evapotranspiration ET). This quantity can often be a significant factor in the basin water balance in semi-arid regions yet is very difficult to estimate over a large area. Better understanding and quantification of seasonal, large-area riparian ET is a primary objective of the Semi-Arid Land-Surface-Atmosphere (SALSA) Program. To address this objective, a series of interdisciplinary experimental Campaigns were conducted in 1997 in the San Pedro Basin in southeastern Arizona. The riparian system in this basin is primarily made up of three vegetation communities: mesquite (Prosopis velutina), sacaton grasses (Sporobolus wrightii), and a cottonwood (Populus fremontii)/willow (Salix goodingii) forest gallery. Micrometeorological measurement techniques were used to estimate ET from the mesquite and grasses. These techniques could not be utilized to estimate fluxes from the cottonwood/willow (C/W) forest gallery due to the height (20-30 m) and non-uniform linear nature of the forest gallery. Short-term (2-4 days) sap flux measurements were made to estimate canopy transpiration over several periods of the riparian growing season. Simultaneous remote sensing measurements were used to spatially extrapolate tree and stand measurements. Scaled C/W stand level sap flux estimates were utilized to calibrate a Penman-Monteith model to enable temporal extrapolation between Synoptic measurement periods. With this model and set of measurements, seasonal riparian vegetation water use

Modeling Aspect Controlled Formation of Seasonally Frozen Ground on Montane Hillslopes: a Case Study from Gordon Gulch, Colorado

Science.gov (United States)

Rush, M.; Rajaram, H.; Anderson, R. S.; Anderson, S. P.

2017-12-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) warns that high-elevation ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change due to short growing seasons, thin soils, sparse vegetation, melting glaciers, and thawing permafrost. Many permafrost-free regions experience seasonally frozen ground. The spatial distribution of frozen soil exerts a strong control on subsurface flow and transport processes by reducing soil permeability and impeding infiltration. Accordingly, evolution of the extent and duration of frozen ground may alter streamflow seasonality, groundwater flow paths, and subsurface storage, presenting a need for coupled thermal-hydrologic models to project hydrologic responses to climate warming in high-elevation regions. To be useful as predictive tools, such models should incorporate the heterogeneity of solar insolation, vegetation, and snowpack dynamics. We present a coupled thermal-hydrologic modeling study against the backdrop of field observations from Gordon Gulch, a seasonally snow-covered montane catchment in the Colorado Front Range in the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory. The field site features two instrumented hillslopes with opposing aspects: the snowpack on the north-facing slope persists throughout much of the winter season, while the snowpack on the south-facing slope is highly ephemeral. We implemented a surface energy balance and snowpack accumulation and ablation model that is coupled to the subsurface flow and transport code PFLOTRAN-ICE to predict the hydrologic consequences of aspect-controlled frozen soil formation during water years 2013-2016. Preliminary model results demonstrate the occurrence of seasonally-frozen ground on the north-facing slope that directs snowmelt to the stream by way of shallow subsurface flow paths. The absence of persistently frozen ground on the south-facing slope allows deeper infiltration of snowmelt recharge. The differences in subsurface flow paths also suggest strong aspect

State of the Science for Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting in Support of Water Resource Managers

Science.gov (United States)

DeWitt, D. G.

2017-12-01

Water resource managers are one of the communities that would strongly benefit from highly-skilled sub-seasonal to seasonal precipitation forecasts. Unfortunately, the current state of the art prediction tools frequently fail to provide a level of skill sufficient to meet the stakeholders needs, especially on the monthly and seasonal timescale. On the other hand, the skill of precipitation forecasts on the week-2 timescale are relatively high and arguably useful in many decision-making contexts. This talk will present a comparison of forecast skill for the week-2 through the first season timescale and describe current efforts within NOAA and elsewhere to try to improve forecast skill beyond week-2, including research gaps that need to be addressed in order to make progress.

Seasonal modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease as a function of meteorological variations in Chongqing, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Pin; Zhao, Han; You, Fangxin; Zhou, Hailong; Goggins, William B.

2017-08-01

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-induced infectious disease, mainly affecting children under 5 years old. Outbreaks of HFMD in recent years indicate the disease interacts with both the weather and season. This study aimed to investigate the seasonal association between HFMD and weather variation in Chongqing, China. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models based on a maximum lag of 14 days, with negative binomial distribution assumed to account for overdispersion, were constructed to model the association between reporting HFMD cases from 2009 to 2014 and daily mean temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall and sun duration, adjusting for trend, season, and day of the week. The year-round temperature and relative humidity, rainfall in summer, and sun duration in winter were all significantly associated with HFMD. An inverted-U relationship was found between mean temperature and HFMD above 19 °C in summer, with a maximum morbidity at 27 °C, while the risk increased linearly with the temperature in winter. A hockey-stick association was found for relative humidity in summer with increasing risks over 60%. Heavy rainfall, relative to no rain, was found to be associated with reduced HFMD risk in summer and 2 h of sunshine could decrease the risk by 21% in winter. The present study showed meteorological variables were differentially associated with HFMD incidence in two seasons. Short-term weather variation surveillance and forecasting could be employed as an early indicator for potential HFMD outbreaks.

Investigating the patterns and determinants of seasonal variation in vitamin D status in Australian adults: the Seasonal D Cohort Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura King

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Vitamin D status generally varies seasonally with changing solar UVB radiation, time in the sun, amount of skin exposed, and, possibly, diet. The Seasonal D Study was designed to quantify the amplitude and phase of seasonal variation in the serum concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D, (25OHD and identify the determinants of the amplitude and phase and those of inter-individual variability in seasonal pattern. Methods The Seasonal D Study collected data 2-monthly for 12 months, including demographics, personal sun exposure using a diary and polysulphone dosimeters over 7 days, and blood for serum 25(OHD concentration. The study recruited 333 adults aged 18–79 years living in Canberra (35°S, n = 168 and Brisbane (27°South, n = 165, Australia. Discussion We report the study design and cohort description for the Seasonal D Study. The study has collected a wealth of data to examine inter- and intra-individual seasonal variation in vitamin D status and serum 25(OHD levels in Australian adults.

Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease: A Global Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Jane C.; Herzog, Lauren; Fabri, Olivia; Tremoulet, Adriana H.; Rodó, Xavier; Uehara, Ritei; Burgner, David; Bainto, Emelia; Pierce, David; Tyree, Mary; Cayan, Daniel

2013-01-01

Background Understanding global seasonal patterns of Kawasaki disease (KD) may provide insight into the etiology of this vasculitis that is now the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children in developed countries worldwide. Methods Data from 1970-2012 from 25 countries distributed over the globe were analyzed for seasonality. The number of KD cases from each location was normalized to minimize the influence of greater numbers from certain locations. The presence of seasonal variation of KD at the individual locations was evaluated using three different tests: time series modeling, spectral analysis, and a Monte Carlo technique. Results A defined seasonal structure emerged demonstrating broad coherence in fluctuations in KD cases across the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical latitudes. In the extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, KD case numbers were highest in January through March and approximately 40% higher than in the months of lowest case numbers from August through October. Datasets were much sparser in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics and statistical significance of the seasonality tests was weak, but suggested a maximum in May through June, with approximately 30% higher number of cases than in the least active months of February, March and October. The seasonal pattern in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics was consistent across the first and second halves of the sample period. Conclusion Using the first global KD time series, analysis of sites located in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics revealed statistically significant and consistent seasonal fluctuations in KD case numbers with high numbers in winter and low numbers in late summer and fall. Neither the tropics nor the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics registered a statistically significant aggregate seasonal cycle. These data suggest a seasonal exposure to a KD agent that operates over large geographic regions and is concentrated during winter

Dispersal of the invasive pasture pest Heteronychus arator into areas of low population density: effects of sex and season, and implications for pest management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah Mansfield

2016-08-01

Full Text Available African black beetle, Heteronychus arator (Scarabaeidae, is an exotic pest of pastures in northern New Zealand. Both adults and larvae feed on pasture grasses. Adults disperse by walking (short range or flying (long range. Dispersal flights are triggered by warm night temperatures in spring and autumn. Short range adult dispersal in search of mates, food or oviposition sites is poorly understood. This study investigated walking activity of H. arator adults over three seasons in New Zealand pastures. Adult walking activity was monitored using pitfall traps along fence lines and in pasture plots on a dairy farm in Waikato, New Zealand, in spring 2013, spring 2014 and autumn 2015. Beetle populations were reduced by application of a biopesticide bait to compare walking activity between treated and control plots for up to 26 days post-treatment. Marked beetles were released into the pasture plots to measure the distance travelled by recaptured individuals. Trap catches along the fence lines were correlated with air temperatures in 2013. Trap catches were male biased in spring 2014 compared with autumn 2015. Trap numbers in the control plots were nearly double that of treated plots in both seasons. More beetles were caught in the pitfall traps at the edges of the treated plots than in the centre. Trap catches were consistent throughout the control plot in spring 2014, but in autumn 2015 more beetles were caught in the centre of the control plot than at the edges. Few marked beetles were recaptured with dispersal rates estimated as <0.5m per day. Warmer temperatures encouraged short range dispersal in H. arator. Males were more active than females during the spring mating season. Edge effects were strong and should be considered in the design of field experiments.

Short-term natural gas consumption forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potocnik, P.; Govekar, E.; Grabec, I.

2007-01-01

Energy forecasting requirements for Slovenia's natural gas market were investigated along with the cycles of natural gas consumption. This paper presented a short-term natural gas forecasting approach where the daily, weekly and yearly gas consumption were analyzed and the information obtained was incorporated into the forecasting model for hourly forecasting for the next day. The natural gas market depends on forecasting in order to optimize the leasing of storage capacities. As such, natural gas distribution companies have an economic incentive to accurately forecast their future gas consumption. The authors proposed a forecasting model with the following properties: two submodels for the winter and summer seasons; input variables including past consumption data, weather data, weather forecasts and basic cycle indexes; and, a hierarchical forecasting structure in which a daily model was used as the basis, with the hourly forecast obtained by modeling the relative daily profile. This proposed method was illustrated by a forecasting example for Slovenia's natural gas market. 11 refs., 11 figs

Food price seasonality in Africa: Measurement and extent.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, Christopher L; Christiaensen, Luc; Kaminski, Jonathan

2017-02-01

Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to estimate the seasonal gap can yield substantial upward bias. This can be partially circumvented using trigonometric and sawtooth models, which are more parsimonious. Among staple crops, seasonality is highest for maize (33 percent on average) and lowest for rice (16½ percent). This is two and a half to three times larger than in the international reference markets. Seasonality varies substantially across market places but maize is the only crop in which there are important systematic country effects. Malawi, where maize is the main staple, emerges as exhibiting the most acute seasonal differences. Reaching the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger requires renewed policy attention to seasonality in food prices and consumption.

Vaccination against seasonal influenza

CERN Multimedia

GS Department

2010-01-01

This year, as usual, the Medical Service is helping to promote vaccination against seasonal influenza. Vaccination against seasonal flu is especially recommended for anyone who suffers from chronic pulmonary, cardio-vascular or kidney disease or diabetes, is recovering from a serious illness or major surgery, or is over 65 years of age. The flu virus is transmitted through the air and through contact with contaminated surfaces, so frequent hand-washing with soap and/or an antiseptic hand wash is of great importance. As soon as the first symptoms appear (fever above 38°, shivering, coughing, muscle and/or joint pains, generalised weakness), you are strongly recommended to stay at home to avoid spreading the virus. Anyone working on the CERN site who wishes to be vaccinated against seasonal flu should go to the Infirmary (Building 57, ground floor), with their dose of vaccine. The Medical Service will issue a prescription on the day of the vaccination for the purposes of reimbursement through UNIQA...

Seasonal and scale-dependent variability in nutrient- and allelopathy-mediated macrophyte–phytoplankton interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lombardo P.

2013-08-01

Full Text Available macrophyte–phytoplankton interactions were investigated using a dual laboratory and field approach during a growing season, with responses quantified as changes in biomass. Short-term, close-range interactions in laboratory microcosms always led to mutual exclusion of macrophytes (Elodea canadensis or Ceratophyllum demersum and algae (Raphidocelis subcapitata, Fistulifera pelliculosa or cyanobacteria (Synechococcus leopoliensis, suggesting regulation by positive feedback mechanisms, progressively establishing and reinforcing a “stable state”. Laboratory results suggest that close-range regulation of R. subcapitata and F. pelliculosa by macrophytes was primarily via nutrient (N, P mediation. Sprig-produced allelochemicals may have contributed to inhibition of S. leopoliensis in C. demersum presence, while S. leopoliensis was apparently enhanced by nutrients leaked by subhealthy (discolored leaves; biomass loss E. canadensis. Seasonal changes in algal growth suppression were correlated with sprig growth. Marginal differences in in situ phytoplankton patterns inside and outside monospecific macrophyte stands suggest that the nutrient- and/or allelopathy-mediated close-range mechanisms observed in the laboratory did not propagate at the macrophyte-stand scale. Factors operating at a larger scale (e.g., lake trophic state, extent of submerged vegetation coverage appear to override in situ macrophyte–phytoplankton close-range interactions.

Seasonal variation in child mortality in rural Guinea-Bissau.

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsen, Bibi Uhre; Byberg, Stine; Aaby, Peter; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Benn, Christine Stabell; Fisker, Ane Baerent

2017-07-01

In many African countries, child mortality is higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. We investigated the effect of season on child mortality by time periods, sex and age in rural Guinea-Bissau. Bandim health project follows children under-five in a health and demographic surveillance system in rural Guinea-Bissau. We compared the mortality in the rainy season (June to November) between 1990 and 2013 with the mortality in the dry season (December to May) in Cox proportional hazards models providing rainy vs. dry season mortality rate ratios (r/d-mrr). Seasonal effects were estimated in strata defined by time periods with different frequency of vaccination campaigns, sex and age (<1 month, 1-11 months, 12-59 months). Verbal autopsies were interpreted using InterVa-4 software. From 1990 to 2013, overall mortality was declined by almost two-thirds among 81 292 children (10 588 deaths). Mortality was 51% (95% ci: 45-58%) higher in the rainy season than in the dry season throughout the study period. The seasonal difference increased significantly with age, the r/d-mrr being 0.94 (0.86-1.03) among neonates, 1.57 (1.46-1.69) in post-neonatal infants and 1.83 (1.72-1.95) in under-five children (P for same effect <0.001). According to the InterVa, malaria deaths were the main reason for the seasonal mortality difference, causing 50% of all deaths in the rainy season, but only if the InterVa included season of death, making the argument self-confirmatory. The mortality declined throughout the study, yet rainy season continued to be associated with 51% higher overall mortality. © 2017 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How Does Seasonal Flu Differ From Pandemic Flu?

Science.gov (United States)

... Past Issues How Does Seasonal Flu Differ From Pandemic Flu? Past Issues / Fall 2006 Table of Contents ... this page please turn Javascript on. Seasonal Flu Pandemic Flu Outbreaks follow predictable seasonal patterns; occurs annually, ...

Determination trends and abnormal seasonal wind speed in Iraq

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hassoon, Ahmed F. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, AL- Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad (Iraq)

2013-07-01

Monthly observed wind speed data at four weather stations (Baghdad, Mosul, Basra, Rutba) at 10m above surface were used to explore the temporal variations of the wind speed (1971-2000) in Iraq. There are different methods to analyze wind speed variation data, but the time series are one of the powerful analysis methods to diagnose the seasonal wind speed anomaly. The results show most high abnormal data is found in summer seasons in all the stations of study, where it concentrated at 1975, 1976, 1978,1996-1995, 2000. Rutba station is different where its high deviation about annual average at nearly all the seasons, in this station there are trends in seasonal wind towards decreases in all the seasons, for example in winter it reached to about 0.046m/s.a-1, while in other stations Mosul and Basra there increases in annual seasonal wind speed trends in seasons spring, summer, autumn where its reached higher value at summer in Basra about 0.0482m/s.a-1. The second method to determine abnormal annual seasonal wind speed is through comparison seasonal average wind speed, where the average wind speed at the seasons summer and spring in Baghdad and Basra station have very high averages at nearly all years, this cannot see in Mosul and Rutba, in Rutba the seasonal average is intersected with each other, summer and spring is not have greater seasonal average in this station.

Landscape seasons and air mass dynamics in Latvia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krauklis, A.; Draveniece, A.

2004-01-01

Latvia is located in the middle of an area where the boreal and nemoral zones and the regions of oceanic and continental climate meet, and it was studied as a model territory of the most typical variation of boreo-nemoral ecotone. The subject of this study was seasonal dynamics of the state of landscapes and diachronous links between seasons. It was found that landscapes undergo 12 seasonal states or seasons during the annual cycle of insulation and air mass occurrence. Each season may be distinguished by a definite amount of solar radiation, distinctive state of heat and water balance, phenological state of vegetation, and a distinctive occurrence of different air mass types and their particular 'association'. During each season these variables show a particular combination of numerical values and a distinctive landscape pattern

75. King Abdulla Medical City – Makkah (KAMC echocardiography service experience & challenges during hajj season (pilgrimage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H.M. Ali

2016-07-01

Full Text Available 2–4 million Muslims attend Hajj each year over last 4–5 years. Umra visitors are seen all along most the year. This creates high demand on all services provided specially the medical. The majority of Hajjes are elderly with co morbidities. They are subject to intense emotional, spiritual & physical endurance during the short period of Hajj season. For the last 4 years King Abdulla Medical City (KAMC is the centre of care for almost all cardiac services provided in Makkah. Echocardiography is a pivotal & integral part of any cardiology service, providing important information about morphology, function & possible etiology in many cases. There is an increasing demand on echo service in KAMC especially during Hajj season. Our service model is unique to meet this increasing demand during Hajj season. To report: we report the service set up. The volume of cases done our experience & challenges met during last four years. The service is provided between first & 15th of Dhul Haja each year. The service is 24 h divided into 12 h shifts. The two shifts are adequately covered by well trained echocardiographers & experienced non-invasive consultant cardiologists. This staff is distributed within the various cardiology clinical areas, to insure rapid response. The studies are done Philips (i30, Epic7 machines. Data acquired is transmitted by special ports/WiFi to our echo lab (Xcelera system where the data is stored & available for viewing & reporting. Reports are created by the responsible consultants using a number of dedicated stations. Viewing stations are well distributed over the whole hospital. The results of this abstract are analyzed using simple Microsoft office tools. Between years 2011 and 2015 there is exponential increase of echo studies done in KAMC, with similar increase in the number of studies done among Hajjes. There was an increase in the number of echo machines, echocardiographers & consultants (See Tables and Graphs attached

Season of birth shapes neonatal immune function

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thysen, Anna Hammerich; Rasmussen, Morten Arendt; Kreiner-Møller, Eskil

2016-01-01

Birth season has been reported to be a risk factor for several immune-mediated diseases. We hypothesized that this association is mediated by differential changes in neonatal immune phenotype and function with birth season. We sought to investigate the influence of season of birth on cord blood...... immune cell subsets and inflammatory mediators in neonatal airways. Cord blood was phenotyped for 26 different immune cell subsets, and at 1 month of age, 20 cytokines and chemokines were quantified in airway mucosal lining fluid. Multivariate partial least squares discriminant analyses were applied...... to determine whether certain immune profiles dominate by birth season, and correlations between individual cord blood immune cells and early airway immune mediators were defined. We found a birth season-related fluctuation in neonatal immune cell subsets and in early-life airway mucosal immune function...

Hurricane Arthur and its effect on the short term variation of pCO2

Science.gov (United States)

Lemay, Jonathan; Thomas, Helmuth; Craig, Susanne; Greenan, Blair; Fennel, Katja

2016-04-01

Seasonal changes in carbon cycling over the years have become better understood on the Scotian Shelf, however little is resolved in short term variation. Hourly measurements were collected from an autonomous moored instrument (CARIOCA) stationed at Halifax Line 2 (HL2), roughly 30km off the coast of Halifax for the 2014 year. Data from the 2007 deployment of the SeaHorse vertical sampling mooring at HL2 was also collected. Focusing on the storm event, Hurricane Arthur, July 5th 2014 reveals a significant drop in pCO2. With the shelf having carbon rich deep water, a reduction of pCO2 due to mixing went against current understanding. It was revealed that slightly above the mixed layer there is a sustained population of phytoplankton. When wind mixing from storms occurs, this population moves to the surface allowing greater light and nutrients for short term growth. This growth then reduces pCO2 for a short period of time until wind speeds slow down reducing mixing of the water column.

Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Haines, K.; Melia, N.; Hawkins, E.; Day, J. J.

2017-12-01

In our previous work [1] we showed how trans-Arctic shipping routes would become more available through the 21st century as sea ice declines, using CMIP5 models with means and stds calibrated to PIOMAS sea ice observations. Sea ice will continue to close shipping routes to open water vessels through the winter months for the foreseeable future so the availability of open sea routes will vary greatly from year to year. Here [2] we look at whether the trans-Arctic shipping season period can be predicted in seasonal forecasts, again using several climate models, and testing both perfect and imperfect knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts may show lower skill before a May `predictability barrier'. Focussing on the northern sea route (NSR) off Siberia, the date of opening of this sea route is twice as variable as the closing date, and this carries through to reduced predictability at the start of the season. Under climate change the later freeze-up date accounts for 60% of the lengthening season, Fig1 We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than for average ice years. Forecasting the exact timing of route open periods is harder (more weather dependent) under average ice conditions while in high and low ice years the season is more controlled by the initial ice conditions from spring onwards. This could be very useful information for companies planning vessel routing for the coming season. We tested this dependence on the initial ice conditions by changing the initial ice state towards climatologically average conditions and show directly that early summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts of the coming shipping season. Mechanisms for this are discussed. This strongly suggests that good sea ice thickness observations

Seasonal emanation of radon at Ghuttu, northwest Himalaya: Differentiation of atmospheric temperature and pressure influences.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamra, Leena

2015-11-01

Continuous monitoring of radon along with meteorological parameters has been carried out in a seismically active area of Garhwal region, northwest Himalaya, within the frame work of earthquake precursory research. Radon measurements are carried out by using a gamma ray detector installed in the air column at a depth of 10m in a 68m deep borehole. The analysis of long time series for 2006-2012 shows strong seasonal variability masked by diurnal and multi-day variations. Isolation of a seasonal cycle by minimising short-time by 31 day running average shows a strong seasonal variation with unambiguous dependence on atmospheric temperature and pressure. The seasonal characteristics of radon concentrations are positively correlated to atmospheric temperature (R=0.95) and negatively correlated to atmospheric pressure (R=-0.82). The temperature and pressure variation in their annual progressions are negatively correlated. The calculations of partial correlation coefficient permit us to conclude that atmospheric temperature plays a dominant role in controlling the variability of radon in borehole, 71% of the variability in radon arises from the variation in atmospheric temperature and about 6% of the variability is contributed by atmospheric pressure. The influence of pressure variations in an annual cycle appears to be a pseudo-effect, resulting from the negative correlation between temperature and pressure variations. Incorporation of these results explains the varying and even contradictory claims regarding the influence of the pressure variability on radon changes in the published literature. Temperature dependence, facilitated by the temperature gradient in the borehole, controls the transportation of radon from the deep interior to the surface. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and seasonal variations of fish assemblages in mangrove creek systems in Zanzibar (Tanzania)

Science.gov (United States)

Mwandya, Augustine W.; Gullström, Martin; Andersson, Mathias H.; Öhman, Marcus C.; Mgaya, Yunus D.; Bryceson, Ian

2010-11-01

Spatial and seasonal variations of fish assemblage composition were studied in three non-estuarine mangrove creeks of Zanzibar (Tanzania). Fish were collected monthly for one year at three sites (lower, intermediate and upper reaches) in each creek using a seine net (each haul covering 170 m 2). Density, species number and diversity of fish were all higher at sites with dense cover of macrophytes (seagrass and macroalgae) than over unvegetated sandy sites. In general, fish assemblages mainly comprised juveniles of a few abundant taxa, e.g. Mugil cephalus, Mugilidae spp. and Leiognathus equulus at sites with mud substratum and Gerres oyena, Lethrinus harak and Sillago sihama at sites dominated by macrophytes. Multivariate analyses revealed significant separations in fish assemblage composition within the two creeks where the bottom substratum differed among sites. Overall, season seemed to have little effect on density, species number, diversity index ( H') and assemblage structure of fish. Water condition variables were also relatively stable across the season, although a short-term fluctuation primarily induced by decreased salinity, occurred during the heavy rains in April and May. Fish assemblage structure was not significantly affected by any of the abiotic factors tested. However, significant regressions were found between the other fish variables and environmental variables, but since these associations were mostly species-specific and generally inconsistent, we suggest that the overall distribution patterns of fish were mainly an effect of particular substrate preferences of fish species rather than contemporary water conditions.

Variations in Growing-Season NDVI and Its Response to Permafrost Degradation in Northeast China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinting Guo

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Permafrost is extremely sensitive to climate change. The degradation of permafrost has strong and profound effects on vegetation. The permafrost zone of northeastern China is the second largest region of permafrost in China and lies on the south edge of the Eurasian cryolithozone. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of the growing-season Normalization Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI in the permafrost zone of northeastern China and analyzed the correlation between NDVI and ground surface temperatures (GST during the years 1981–2014. Mean growing-season NDVI (MGS-NDVI experienced a marked increase of 0.003 year−1 across the entire permafrost zone. The spatial dynamics of vegetation cover had a high degree of heterogeneity on a per pixel scale. The MGS-NDVI value increased significantly (5% significance level in 80.57%, and this increase was mostly distributed in permafrost zone except for the western steppe region. Only 7.72% experienced a significant decrease in NDVI, mainly in the cultivated and steppe portions. In addition, MGS-NDVI increased significantly with increasing growing-season mean ground surface temperature (GS-MGST. Our results suggest that a warming of GS-MGST (permafrost degradation in the permafrost region of northeastern China played a positive role in increasing plant growth and activities. Although increasing ground surface temperature resulted in increased vegetation cover and growth in the short time of permafrost degradation, from the long term point of view, permafrost degradation or disappearance may weaken or even hinder vegetation activities.

Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Coughlan de Perez

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.

The Shifting Seasonal Mean Autoregressive Model and Seasonality in the Central England Monthly Temperature Series, 1772-2016

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

He, Changli; Kang, Jian; Terasvirta, Timo

In this paper we introduce an autoregressive model with seasonal dummy variables in which coefficients of seasonal dummies vary smoothly and deterministically over time. The error variance of the model is seasonally heteroskedastic and multiplicatively decomposed, the decomposition being similar ...... temperature series. More specifically, the idea is to find out in which way and by how much the monthly temperatures are varying over time during the period of more than 240 years, if they do. Misspecification tests are applied to the estimated model and the findings discussed....

Feature: Controlling Seasonal Allergies | NIH Medlineplus the Magazine

Science.gov (United States)

... this page please turn Javascript on. Feature: Seasonal Allergies Controlling Seasonal Allergies Past Issues / Spring 2012 Table of Contents In ... to allergens, helping to prevent allergic reactions. Seasonal Allergy Research at NIH Allergen and T-Cell Reagent ...

Seasonal climate prediction for North Eurasia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kryjov, Vladimir N

2012-01-01

An overview of the current status of the operational seasonal climate prediction for North Eurasia is presented. It is shown that the performance of existing climate models is rather poor in seasonal prediction for North Eurasia. Multi-model ensemble forecasts are more reliable than single-model ones; however, for North Eurasia they tend to be close to climatological ones. Application of downscaling methods may improve predictions for some locations (or regions). However, general improvement of the reliability of seasonal forecasts for North Eurasia requires improvement of the climate prediction models. (letter)

Seasonal variation of radon concentrations in UK homes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miles, J C H; Howarth, C B; Hunter, N

2012-01-01

The patterns of seasonal variation of radon concentrations were measured in 91 homes in five regions of the UK over a period of two years. The results showed that there was no significant difference between the regions in the pattern or magnitude of seasonal variation in radon concentrations. The arithmetic mean variation was found to be close to that found previously in the UK national survey. Differences in the pattern between the two years of the study were not significant. Two-thirds of homes in the study followed the expected pattern of high radon in the winter and low radon in the summer. Most of the rest showed little seasonal variation, and a few showed a reversed seasonal pattern. The study does not provide any clear evidence for the recorded house characteristics having an effect on the seasonal variation in radon concentrations in UK homes, though the statistical power for determining such effects is limited in this study. The magnitude of the seasonal variation varied widely between homes. Analysis of the individual results from the homes showed that because of the wide variation in the amount of seasonal variation, applying seasonal correction factors to the results of three-month measurements can yield only relatively small improvements in the accuracy of estimates of annual mean concentrations.

Studies of the Seasonal Pattern of Multiple Maternities.

Science.gov (United States)

Fellman, Johan

2017-06-01

The seasonality of population data has been of great interest in demographic studies. When seasonality is analyzed, the population at risk plays a central role. In a study of the monthly number of births and deaths, the population at risk is the product of the size of the population and the length of the month. Usually, the population can be assumed to be constant, and consequently, the population at risk is proportional to the length of the month. Hence, the number of cases per day has to be analyzed. If one studies the seasonal variation in twin or multiple maternities, the population at risk is the total number of monthly confinements, and the study should be based on the rates of the multiple maternities. Consequently, if one considers monthly twinning rates, the monthly number of birth data is eliminated and one obtains an unaffected seasonality measure of the twin maternities. The strength of the seasonality is measured by a chi-squared test or by the standard deviation. When seasonal models are applied, one must pay special attention to how well the model fits the data. If the goodness of fit is poor, it can erroneously result in a statement that the seasonality is slight, although the observed seasonal fluctuations are marked.

Seasonal variation in human reproduction: environmental factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Bronson, F H

1995-06-01

Almost all human populations exhibit seasonal variation in births, owing mostly to seasonal variation in the frequency of conception. This review focuses on the degree to which environmental factors like nutrition, temperature and photoperiod contribute to these seasonal patterns by acting directly on the reproductive axis. The reproductive strategy of humans is basically that of the apes: Humans have the capacity to reproduce continuously, albeit slowly, unless inhibited by environmental influences. Two, and perhaps three, environmental factors probably act routinely as seasonal inhibitors in some human populations. First, it seems likely that ovulation is regulated seasonally in populations experiencing seasonal variation in food availability. More specifically, it seems likely that inadequate food intake or the increased energy expenditure required to obtain food, or both, can delay menarche, suppress the frequency of ovulation in the nonlactating adult, and prolong lactational amenorrhea in these populations on a seasonal basis. This action is most easily seen in tropical subsistence societies where food availability often varies greatly owing to seasonal variation in rainfall; hence births in these populations often correlate with rainfall. Second, it seems likely that seasonally high temperatures suppress spermatogenesis enough to influence the incidence of fertilization in hotter latitudes, but possibly only in males wearing clothing that diminishes scrotal cooling. Since most of our knowledge about this phenomenon comes from temperate latitudes, the sensitivity of spermatogenesis in both human and nonhuman primates to heat in the tropics needs further study. It is quite possible that high temperatures suppress ovulation and early embryo survival seasonally in some of these same populations. Since we know less than desired about the effect of heat stress on ovulation and early pregnancy in nonhuman mammals, and nothing at all about it in humans or any of the

Retrospective assessment of seasonal allergic symptoms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bodtger, U; Poulsen, Lars K.; Malling, H-J

2003-01-01

The history of the severity of seasonal allergic symptoms is often obtained post-seasonally as a retrospective assessment. Correct rating is essential when determining the efficacy of pharmaceutical treatment, indications for allergen-specific immunotherapy (SIT), or inclusion into controlled cli...

Heterogeneity in fire severity within early season and late season prescribed burns in a mixed-conifer forest

Science.gov (United States)

Knapp, E.E.; Keeley, J.E.

2006-01-01

Structural heterogeneity in forests of the Sierra Nevada was historically produced through variation in fire regimes and local environmental factors. The amount of heterogeneity that prescription burning can achieve might now be more limited owing to high fuel loads and increased fuel continuity. Topography, woody fuel loading, and vegetative composition were quantified in plots within replicated early and late season burn units. Two indices of fire severity were evaluated in the same plots after the burns. Scorch height ranged from 2.8 to 25.4 m in early season plots and 3.1 to 38.5 m in late season plots, whereas percentage of ground surface burned ranged from 24 to 96% in early season plots and from 47 to 100% in late season plots. Scorch height was greatest in areas with steeper slopes, higher basal area of live trees, high percentage of basal area composed of pine, and more small woody fuel. Percentage of area burned was greatest in areas with less bare ground and rock cover (more fuel continuity), steeper slopes, and units burned in the fall (lower fuel moisture). Thus topographic and biotic factors still contribute to the abundant heterogeneity in fire severity with prescribed burning, even under the current high fuel loading conditions. Burning areas with high fuel loads in early season when fuels are moister may lead to patterns of heterogeneity in fire effects that more closely approximate the expected patchiness of historical fires.

[On the seasonality of dermatoses: a retrospective analysis of search engine query data depending on the season].

Science.gov (United States)

Köhler, M J; Springer, S; Kaatz, M

2014-09-01

The volume of search engine queries about disease-relevant items reflects public interest and correlates with disease prevalence as proven by the example of flu (influenza). Other influences include media attention or holidays. The present work investigates if the seasonality of prevalence or symptom severity of dermatoses correlates with search engine query data. The relative weekly volume of dermatological relevant search terms was assessed by the online tool Google Trends for the years 2009-2013. For each item, the degree of seasonality was calculated via frequency analysis and a geometric approach. Many dermatoses show a marked seasonality, reflected by search engine query volumes. Unexpected seasonal variations of these queries suggest a previously unknown variability of the respective disease prevalence. Furthermore, using the example of allergic rhinitis, a close correlation of search engine query data with actual pollen count can be demonstrated. In many cases, search engine query data are appropriate to estimate seasonal variability in prevalence of common dermatoses. This finding may be useful for real-time analysis and formation of hypotheses concerning pathogenetic or symptom aggravating mechanisms and may thus contribute to improvement of diagnostics and prevention of skin diseases.

Seasonal mood changes in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Oğuz; Metin, Barış; Ünsalver, Barış Önen; Sayar, Gökben Hızlı

2017-12-01

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is frequently associated with mood disorders. However, to date, the co-occurrence of OCD with seasonal affective disorder (SAD) has not been investigated. We have aimed to estimate the prevalence of seasonal mood changes in patients with OCD and explore the contribution of seasonality in mood to the severity of OCD. The Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ), the Yale-Brown Obsession and Compulsion Scale (Y-BOCS), the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale-17 Items (HDRS-17), and the Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI) were administered to patients with OCD (n=104) and controls (n=125). The degree of seasonality was measured by the Global Seasonality Score (GSS) calculated from the SPAQ. SAD and subsyndromal seasonal affective disorder (S-SAD) were significantly more prevalent in patients with OCD (53%, n=55) than controls (25%, n=31). When patients were assessed in the season in which SAD occurs, depression and compulsions (but not obsessions, OCD or anxiety) were more severe than those assessed in a season during which SAD does not occur. SAD frequently co-occurs with OCD and, given this co-occurrence, depression symptoms in some patients with OCD might be expected to vary on a seasonal basis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecology and social system of northern gibbons living in cold seasonal forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Zhen-Hua; Ma, Chang-Yong; Fei, Han-Lan; Huang, Bei; Ning, Wen-He; Ni, Qing-Yong; Jiang, Xue-Long; Fan, Peng-Fei

2018-07-18

Gibbons in China represent the northernmost margin of present day gibbon species distribution (around N25°). Compared to tropical habitats, northern gibbon habitats are characterized by low temperatures and remarkable seasonal variation in fruit abundance. How gibbons adapt to their cold and seasonal habitats and what ecological factors affect their sociality are key questions for understanding their ecology and social system evolution, the elucidation of which will contribute to the conservation of these special populations/species. According to preliminary short-term studies, northern gibbons consume more leaves and use larger home ranges than tropical gibbons. Interestingly, some Nomascus groups consist of more than one adult female. However, these preliminary results are not well understood or incorporated into current socio-ecological theories regarding gibbon species. To better understand northern gibbons, our team has systematically studied three habituated groups of Nomascus concolor, three groups of N. nasutus, and two habituated groups of Hoolock tianxing since 2002. In this paper, we stress the challenges facing gibbons living in northern habitats and summarize their behavioral adaptations to their harsh environments. We also describe the northern gibbon social system and discuss the potential relationships between their ecology and sociality. Finally, we highlight future research questions related to northern gibbons in China.

Ecology and social system of northern gibbons living in cold seasonal forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhen-Hua Guan

2018-07-01

Full Text Available Gibbons in China represent the northernmost margin of present day gibbon species distribution (around N25°. Compared to tropical habitats, northern gibbon habitats are characterized by low temperatures and remarkable seasonal variation in fruit abundance. How gibbons adapt to their cold and seasonal habitats and what ecological factors affect their sociality are key questions for understanding their ecology and social system evolution, the elucidation of which will contribute to the conservation of these special populations/species. According to preliminary short-term studies, northern gibbons consume more leaves and use larger home ranges than tropical gibbons. Interestingly, some Nomascus groups consist of more than one adult female. However, these preliminary results are not well understood or incorporated into current socio-ecological theories regarding gibbon species. To better understand northern gibbons, our team has systematically studied three habituated groups of Nomascus concolor, three groups of N. nasutus, and two habituated groups of Hoolock tianxing since 2002. In this paper, we stress the challenges facing gibbons living in northern habitats and summarize their behavioral adaptations to their harsh environments. We also describe the northern gibbon social system and discuss the potential relationships between their ecology and sociality. Finally, we highlight future research questions related to northern gibbons in China.

The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

Science.gov (United States)

deBeurs, K.M.; Brown, M. E.

2013-01-01

Local agricultural production is a key element of food security in many agricultural countries in Africa. Climate change and variability is likely to adversely affect these countries, particularly as they affect the ability of smallholder farmers to raise enough food to feed themselves. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to sow and harvest, and ultimately the success or failure of their crops. At a 2009 conference in the United Kingdom hosted by the Institute of Development Studies, Jennings and Magrath (2009) described farmer reports from East Asia, South Asia, Southern Africa, East Africa and Latin America. Farmers indicate significant changes in the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons, including: More erratic rainfall, coming at unexpected times in and out of season; Extreme storms and unusually intense rainfall are punctuated by longer dry spells within the rainy season; Increasing uncertainty as to the start of rainy seasons in many areas; Short or transitional second rainy seasons are becoming stronger than normal or are disappearing altogether. These farmer perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and are remarkably consistent across diverse regions (Jennings and Magrath, 2009). The impact of these changes on farmers with small plots and few resources is large. Farming is becoming riskier because of heat stress, lack of water, pests and diseases that interact with ongoing pressures on natural resources. Lack of predictability in the start and length of the growing season affects the ability of farmers to invest in appropriate fertilizer levels or improved, high yielding varieties. These changes occur at the same time as the demand for food is rising and is projected to continue to rise for the next fifty years (IAASTD, 2008). Long-term data records derived from satellite remote sensing can be used to verify these reports, providing necessary analysis and documentation required

The effect of short exposure to coloured light on thermal perception: a study using Virtual Reality

OpenAIRE

Chinazzo, Giorgia; Chamilothori, Kynthia; Wienold, Jan; Andersen, Marilyne

2017-01-01

This study investigates the effect of short exposure to coloured light on thermal perception. To give the impression of natural daylight passing through coloured filters, but avoiding the drawbacks of conducting an experiment with daylight, continuously changing due to daily and seasonal variations, and to weather conditions, we investigate the use of Virtual Reality as a means to control the visual conditions, creating a hybrid environment with thermal and visual stimuli from the real and vi...

Seasonal measurements of organic acid fluxes over a ponderosa pine forest

Science.gov (United States)

Fulgham, S. R.; Brophy, P.; Link, M.; Ortega, J. V.; Farmer, D.

2016-12-01

The biosphere acts as both a source and a sink of oxidized organic compounds. Ignoring dry deposition leads to overestimation of secondary organic aerosols by aerosol models, while ignoring emission sources underestimates the budget of organic acids. Developing parameterizations for oxidized organic dry deposition and emission requires observational constraints. Although biosphere parameters are impacted by seasonal variability, most reactive, trace-gas exchange measurements are made for only short periods of time in the main growing season. Here we make fast (5 - 10 Hz) and sensitive (e.g. 0.73 ppt mean limit of detection for formic acid with 10 s averaging) eddy covariance measurements of gas-phase organic acids and other oxidized organic species with a high resolution Time-of-Flight Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer with acetate and iodide reagent ions. Measurements were made in 4 - 6 week campaigns over five seasons from summer 2015 to fall 2016 as part of the Seasonal Particles in Forests Flux studY (SPIFFY) at the Manitou Experimental Forest Observatory near Woodland Park, Colorado. Permeation tubes were used for online calibration of carboxylic acids including formic (C1), propionic (C3), butyric (C4), methacrylic (CH2C(CH3)COOH), valeric (C5), and heptanoic (C7) acids. Average daytime mixing ratios for formic acid were 100 ± 100 ppt in winter and 1500 ± 1000 ppt in summer 2016. Upward fluxes of formic acid were observed throughout the experiment, daytime averages and standard deviations ranging from 1900 ± 1000 ppt cm s-1 in winter to 170 ± 130 ppt cm s-1 in spring. Propionic (22 ± 22 ppt cm s-1), butyric (17 ± 16 ppt cm s-1), and methacrylic (3.5 ± 6.1 ppt cm s-1) acids exhibit a mix of upward, near-zero, and downward fluxes. Fluxes were exponentially correlated to temperature, suggesting an ecosystem-scale source of these acids. We also measure exchange velocities of a broad suite of other oxidized organic compounds (31.99 m/z to 311.523 m/z in

Atmospheric Seasonality as an Exoplanet Biosignature

Science.gov (United States)

Olson, Stephanie L.; Schwieterman, Edward W.; Reinhard, Christopher T.; Ridgwell, Andy; Kane, Stephen R.; Meadows, Victoria S.; Lyons, Timothy W.

2018-05-01

Current investigations of exoplanet biosignatures have focused on static evidence of life, such as the presence of biogenic gases like O2 or CH4. However, the expected diversity of terrestrial planet atmospheres and the likelihood of both “false positives” and “false negatives” for conventional biosignatures motivate exploration of additional life detection strategies, including time-varying signals. Seasonal variation in atmospheric composition is a biologically modulated phenomenon on Earth that may occur elsewhere because it arises naturally from the interplay between the biosphere and time-variable insolation. The search for seasonality as a biosignature would avoid many assumptions about specific metabolisms and provide an opportunity to directly quantify biological fluxes—allowing us to characterize, rather than simply recognize, biospheres on exoplanets. Despite this potential, there have been no comprehensive studies of seasonality as an exoplanet biosignature. Here, we provide a foundation for further studies by reviewing both biological and abiological controls on the magnitude and detectability of seasonality of atmospheric CO2, CH4, O2, and O3 on Earth. We also consider an example of an inhabited world for which atmospheric seasonality may be the most notable expression of its biosphere. We show that life on a low O2 planet like the weakly oxygenated mid-Proterozoic Earth could be fingerprinted by seasonal variation in O3 as revealed in its UV Hartley–Huggins bands. This example highlights the need for UV capabilities in future direct-imaging telescope missions (e.g., LUVOIR/HabEx) and illustrates the diagnostic importance of studying temporal biosignatures for exoplanet life detection/characterization.

Seasonal and diurnal variation of organic ultraviolet filters from personal care products used along the Japanese coast.

Science.gov (United States)

Sankoda, Kenshi; Murata, Kotaro; Tanihata, Mai; Suzuki, Kengo; Nomiyama, Kei; Shinohara, Ryota

2015-02-01

This study aimed to investigate the behavior of organic ultraviolet (UV) filters released by recreational activities along the Japanese coastline. Seasonal variations of organic UV filters in seawater were investigated at four different recreational beaches (Mogushi, Wakamiya, Tsurugahama, and Otachimisaki beaches) in both summer (July through August) and winter (December). Moreover, short time scale diurnal changes were monitored at Otachimisaki beach in summer. Of the four sunscreen agents tested in this study, two agents-2-ethylhexyl-4-methoxycinnamate (EHMC) and 2-ethylhexyl salicylate (EHS)-were detected in all samples, whereas octyl-dimethyl-p-aminobenzonic acid and 3-(4-methylbenzylidene)-camphor were lower than detection limits. In particular, EHMC, one of the most popular organic UV filters, was dominant. The highest concentration of EHMC was observed at 1,080 ng L(-1), a level that exceeds those of previous studies. Both EHMC and EHS concentrations showed significant (p < 0.05) seasonal variations with advancing summer suggesting direct input from recreational activities. The subsequent examination showed short time scale diurnal changes of organic UV filters on the beach. The results showed that diurnal changes in EHMC concentrations were correlated to the number of bathers. EHMC concentrations increased during the afternoon and decreased during the night, although complete attenuation during the night did not occur. EHMC persists along the coast due to low mobility and may persist the next day. This is the first study to show the natural attenuation behavior of organic UV filters along recreational beaches.

The extra mile: Ungulate migration distance alters the use of seasonal range and exposure to anthropogenic risk

Science.gov (United States)

Sawyer, Hall; Middleton, Arthur D.; Hayes, Matthew M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Monteith, Kevin L.

2016-01-01

Partial migration occurs across a variety of taxa and has important ecological and evolutionary consequences. Among ungulates, studies of partially migratory populations have allowed researchers to compare and contrast performance metrics of migrants versus residents and examine how environmental factors influence the relative abundance of each. Such studies tend to characterize animals discretely as either migratory or resident, but we suggest that variable migration distances within migratory herds are an important and overlooked form of population structure, with potential consequences for animal fitness. We examined whether the variation in individual migration distances (20–264 km) within a single wintering population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) was associated with several critical behavioral attributes of migration, including timing of migration, time allocation to seasonal ranges, and exposure to anthropogenic mortality risks. Both the timing of migration and the amount of time animals allocated to seasonal ranges varied with migration distance. Animals migrating long distances (150–250 km) initiated spring migration more than three weeks before than those migrating moderate (50–150 km) or short distances (forage and effectively increase carrying capacity. Clear differences in winter residency, migration duration, and risk of anthropogenic mortality among short-, moderate-, and long-distance migrants suggest fitness trade-offs may exist among migratory segments of the population. Future studies of partial migration may benefit from expanding comparisons of residents and migrants, to consider how variable migration distances of migrants may influence the costs and benefits of migration.

Semen characterization, seasonality of production, and in vitro sperm quality after chilled storage and cryopreservation in the king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus).

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Justine K; Robeck, Todd R

2014-01-01

Research was conducted to examine seasonal seminal traits and to establish short-term and long-term sperm preservation methods in the king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus) for use in genome banking and artificial insemination (AI). Spermic ejaculates (n = 87) obtained using a cooperative method were collected across multiple (n = 6, Male 1) and a single (Male 2) breeding season(s). Non-contaminated ejaculates (n = 69) were 0.36 ± 0.32 ml at 56.3 ± 62.7 × 10(7)  sperm/ml with 85.3 ± 10.6% total motility (TMot), 52.5 ± 12.9% progressive motility (PMot), 86.6 ± 24.3 µm/sec average path velocity (VAP) and 92.3 ± 3.7% plasma membrane intact. In vitro quality of chilled semen was best maintained over 48 hr at 5°C than 21°C, with decreased (P penguin has potential for use in AI. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Seasonality, water quality trends and biological responses in four streams in the Cairngorm Mountains, Scotland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Soulsby

2001-01-01

and show no evidence of acid-related impoverishment. Thus, over longer timescales invertebrates in these streams appear robust to the short-term (seasonal and inter-annual environmental variability and long-term (decadal chemical changes identified. Keywords: hydrochemistry, hydrology, trends, macroinvertebrates, uplands, Cairngorms, acidification

Habitat-Based Density Models for Three Cetacean Species off Southern California Illustrate Pronounced Seasonal Differences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elizabeth A. Becker

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Managing marine species effectively requires spatially and temporally explicit knowledge of their density and distribution. Habitat-based density models, a type of species distribution model (SDM that uses habitat covariates to estimate species density and distribution patterns, are increasingly used for marine management and conservation because they provide a tool for assessing potential impacts (e.g., from fishery bycatch, ship strikes, anthropogenic sound over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The abundance and distribution of many pelagic species exhibit substantial seasonal variability, highlighting the importance of predicting density specific to the season of interest. This is particularly true in dynamic regions like the California Current, where significant seasonal shifts in cetacean distribution have been documented at coarse scales. Finer scale (10 km habitat-based density models were previously developed for many cetacean species occurring in this region, but most models were limited to summer/fall. The objectives of our study were two-fold: (1 develop spatially-explicit density estimates for winter/spring to support management applications, and (2 compare model-predicted density and distribution patterns to previously developed summer/fall model results in the context of species ecology. We used a well-established Generalized Additive Modeling framework to develop cetacean SDMs based on 20 California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI shipboard surveys conducted during winter and spring between 2005 and 2015. Models were fit for short-beaked common dolphin (Delphinus delphis delphis, Dall's porpoise (Phocoenoides dalli, and humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae. Model performance was evaluated based on a variety of established metrics, including the percentage of explained deviance, ratios of observed to predicted density, and visual inspection of predicted and observed distributions. Final models were

Consumer Acceptance Comparison Between Seasoned and Unseasoned Vegetables.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yiming; Albiol Tapia, Marta; Okada, Kyle; Castaneda Lazo, Nuria Blanca; Chapman-Novakofski, Karen; Phillips, Carter; Lee, Soo-Yeun

2018-02-01

Recent findings show that approximately 87% of the U.S. population fail to meet the vegetable intake recommendations, with unpleasant taste of vegetables being listed as the primary reason for this shortfall. In this study, spice and herb seasoning was used to enhance palatability of vegetables, in order to increase consumer acceptance. In total, 749 panelists were screened and recruited as specific vegetable likers of the vegetable being tested or general vegetable likers. Four sessions were designed to evaluate the effect of seasoning within each type of vegetable, including broccoli, cauliflower, carrot, and green bean. Each panelist was only allowed to participate in one test session to evaluate only one vegetable type, so as to mitigate potential learning effect. Overall, the results showed that seasoned vegetables were significantly preferred over unseasoned vegetables (P trend of seasoned vegetable being preferred remained. The findings from this study demonstrate the effect of seasoning in enhancing consumer liking of vegetables, which may lead to increased consumption to be assessed in future studies. To improve the sensory properties of vegetables, masking the bitter taste of vegetables using spice and herb seasoning are gaining increasing attention. Our findings suggest that the overall liking of vegetables could be improved by incorporating spice and herb seasonings that are specifically formulated for each vegetable. Ultimately, developing and commercializing spice and herb seasonings may aid to increase vegetable consumption, as well as expanding the vegetable seasoning market. © 2018 The Authors Journal of Food Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Institute of Food Technologists.

Daily and seasonal variations of outdoor alpha-activity concentration in Salzburg city/Austria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lettner, H.; Hubmer, A.K.; Rolle, R.; Winkler, R.; Steinhaeusler, F.

1996-01-01

Long-term continuous measurements of the atmospheric outdoor alpha-activity concentration have been performed by using a radioaerosol-monitor, roof-mounted 20 m above ground. The alpha-activity concentration was identified to be predominantly attributed to radon progeny. The total alpha-activity covers a range of two orders of magnitude. Three different components of variations could be identified with regard to temporal variations: Short-term diurnal component (daily variation), mid-term component (days to weeks) and long-term component (seasonal variation). Continuous measurements have been recorded since the end of 1993. The results of continuous measurements of the outdoor alpha-activity concentration over a time span from January 1994 to June 1995 are presented. (author)

489 SEASONAL VARIATION IN PHYSICO-CHEMICAL ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Osondu

higher concentration during the wet season than in the dry season in all the Groups, except for BOD, sulphate and iron. ... availability and quality of groundwater due to waste and ... using 1 litre plastic containers that were treated with 3-4ml of ...

Modeling seasonality in bimonthly time series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

1992-01-01

textabstractA recurring issue in modeling seasonal time series variables is the choice of the most adequate model for the seasonal movements. One selection method for quarterly data is proposed in Hylleberg et al. (1990). Market response models are often constructed for bimonthly variables, and

Seasonal blood shortages can be eliminated.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilcher, Ronald O; McCombs, Suzanne

2005-11-01

This review is designed to help readers understand seasonal blood shortages and provide solutions through the use of technology that can increase the number of red blood cell units collected and the use of recruitment and marketing initiatives that appeal to the increasingly diverse donor base. Seasonal shortages are, in reality, mostly shortages of group O red blood cells and occur most commonly during midsummer and early winter. The shortages occur primarily from increased use of group O red blood cells at times of decreased donor availability. While reducing the disproportionate use of red cells will help, blood centers can more quickly reduce the seasonal deficits by using automated red cell technology to collect double red blood cell units; targeted marketing programs to provide effective messages; seasonal advertising campaigns; and recognition, benefits, and incentives to enhance the donor motivation donation threshold. A multi-level approach to increasing blood donations at difficult times of the year can ensure that donations are increased at a time when regular donor availability is decreased. Seasonal blood shortages can be eliminated by understanding the nature of the shortages, why and when they occur, and using more sophisticated recruitment and marketing strategies as well as automated collection technologies to enhance the blood supply.

Effects of a long-term disturbance on arthropods and vegetation in subalpine wetlands: manifestations of pack stock grazing in early versus mid-season.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffrey G Holmquist

Full Text Available Conclusions regarding disturbance effects in high elevation or high latitude ecosystems based solely on infrequent, long-term sampling may be misleading, because the long winters may erase severe, short-term impacts at the height of the abbreviated growing season. We separated a long-term effects of pack stock grazing, manifested in early season prior to stock arrival, from b additional pack stock grazing effects that might become apparent during annual stock grazing, by use of paired grazed and control wet meadows that we sampled at the beginning and end of subalpine growing seasons. Control meadows had been closed to grazing for at least two decades, and meadow pairs were distributed across Sequoia National Park, California, USA. The study was thus effectively a landscape-scale, long-term manipulation of wetland grazing. We sampled arthropods at these remote sites and collected data on associated vegetation structure. Litter cover and depth, percent bare ground, and soil strength had negative responses to grazing. In contrast, fauna showed little response to grazing, and there were overall negative effects for only three arthropod families. Mid-season and long-term results were generally congruent, and the only indications of lower faunal diversity on mid-season grazed wetlands were trends of lower abundance across morphospecies and lower diversity for canopy fauna across assemblage metrics. Treatment x Season interactions almost absent. Thus impacts on vegetation structure only minimally cascaded into the arthropod assemblage and were not greatly intensified during the annual growing season. Differences between years, which were likely a response to divergent snowfall patterns, were more important than differences between early and mid-season. Reliance on either vegetation or faunal metrics exclusively would have yielded different conclusions; using both flora and fauna served to provide a more integrative view of ecosystem response.

Effects of a long-term disturbance on arthropods and vegetation in subalpine wetlands: manifestations of pack stock grazing in early versus mid-season.

Science.gov (United States)

Holmquist, Jeffrey G; Schmidt-Gengenbach, Jutta; Haultain, Sylvia A

2013-01-01

Conclusions regarding disturbance effects in high elevation or high latitude ecosystems based solely on infrequent, long-term sampling may be misleading, because the long winters may erase severe, short-term impacts at the height of the abbreviated growing season. We separated a) long-term effects of pack stock grazing, manifested in early season prior to stock arrival, from b) additional pack stock grazing effects that might become apparent during annual stock grazing, by use of paired grazed and control wet meadows that we sampled at the beginning and end of subalpine growing seasons. Control meadows had been closed to grazing for at least two decades, and meadow pairs were distributed across Sequoia National Park, California, USA. The study was thus effectively a landscape-scale, long-term manipulation of wetland grazing. We sampled arthropods at these remote sites and collected data on associated vegetation structure. Litter cover and depth, percent bare ground, and soil strength had negative responses to grazing. In contrast, fauna showed little response to grazing, and there were overall negative effects for only three arthropod families. Mid-season and long-term results were generally congruent, and the only indications of lower faunal diversity on mid-season grazed wetlands were trends of lower abundance across morphospecies and lower diversity for canopy fauna across assemblage metrics. Treatment x Season interactions almost absent. Thus impacts on vegetation structure only minimally cascaded into the arthropod assemblage and were not greatly intensified during the annual growing season. Differences between years, which were likely a response to divergent snowfall patterns, were more important than differences between early and mid-season. Reliance on either vegetation or faunal metrics exclusively would have yielded different conclusions; using both flora and fauna served to provide a more integrative view of ecosystem response.

Application of Seasonal Trend Loess to GPS data in Cascadia

Science.gov (United States)

Bal, A.; Bartlow, N. M.

2016-12-01

Plate Boundary Observatory GPS stations provide crucial data for the study of slow slip events and volcanic hazards in the Cascadia region. However, these GPS stations also record seasonal changes in deformation caused by hydrologic, atmospheric, and other seasonal loading. Removing these signals is necessary for accurately modeling the tectonic sources of deformation. Traditionally, seasonal trends in data been accounted for by fitting and removing sine curves from the data. However, not all seasonal trends follow a sinusoidal shape. Seasonal Trend Loess, or STL, is a filtering procedure for a decomposing a time series into trend, seasonal, and remainder components (Cleveland et. al, Journal of Official Statistics, 1990). STL has a simple design that consists of a sequence of applications of the loess smoother which allows for fast computation of large amounts of trend and seasonal smoothing. STL allows for non-sinusoidal shapes in seasonal deformation signals, and allows for evolution of seasonal signals over time. We applied Seasonal Trend Loess to GPS data from the Cascadia region. We compared our results to a traditional sine wave fit for seasonal removal at selected stations, including stations with slow slip event and volcanic signals. We hope that the STL method may be able to more accurately differentiate seasonal and tectonic deformation signals.

Diurnal and seasonal variations of NO, NO2 and PM2.5 mass as a function of traffic volumes alongside an urban arterial

Science.gov (United States)

Kendrick, Christine M.; Koonce, Peter; George, Linda A.

2015-12-01

Urban arterial corridors are landscapes that give rise to short and long-term exposures to transportation-related pollution. With high traffic volumes and a wide mix of road users, urban arterial environments are important targets for improved exposure assessment to traffic-related pollution. A common method to estimate exposure is to use traffic volumes as a proxy. The study presented here analyzes a unique yearlong dataset of simultaneous roadside air quality and traffic observations for a U.S. arterial to assess the reliability of using traffic volumes as a proxy for traffic-related exposure. Results show how the relationships of traffic volumes with NO and NO2 vary not only by time of day and season but also by time aggregation. At short-term aggregations (15 min) nitrogen oxides were found to have a significant linear relationship with traffic volumes during morning hours for all seasons although variability was still high (r2 = 0.1-0.45 NO, r2 = 0.14-0.27 NO2), and little to no relationship during evening periods (r2 road users, these results show when traffic volumes alone can be a reliable proxy for exposure and when this approach is not warranted.

Survival during the Breeding Season: Nest Stage, Parental Sex, and Season Advancement Affect Reed Warbler Survival.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaja Wierucka

Full Text Available Avian annual survival has received much attention, yet little is known about seasonal patterns in survival, especially of migratory passerines. In order to evaluate survival rates and timing of mortality within the breeding season of adult reed warblers (Acrocephalus scirpaceus, mark-recapture data were collected in southwest Poland, between 2006 and 2012. A total of 612 individuals (304 females and 308 males were monitored throughout the entire breeding season, and their capture-recapture histories were used to model survival rates. Males showed higher survival during the breeding season (0.985, 95% CI: 0.941-0.996 than females (0.869, 95% CI: 0.727-0.937. Survival rates of females declined with the progression of the breeding season (from May to August, while males showed constant survival during this period. We also found a clear pattern within the female (but not male nesting cycle: survival was significantly lower during the laying, incubation, and nestling periods (0.934, 95% CI: 0.898-0.958, when birds spent much time on the nest, compared to the nest building and fledgling periods (1.000, 95% CI: 1.00-1.000, when we did not record any female mortality. These data (coupled with some direct evidence, like bird corpses or blood remains found next to/on the nest may suggest that the main cause of adult mortality was on-nest predation. The calculated survival rates for both sexes during the breeding season were high compared to annual rates reported for this species, suggesting that a majority of mortality occurs at other times of the year, during migration or wintering. These results have implications for understanding survival variation within the reproductive period as well as general trends of avian mortality.

The influence of loss and gain of body mass on ovarian activity in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Ovarian activity was studied in 36 dry, Bos taurus cows fed to achieve different rates of body mass loss and gain in a 2 x 2 factorial experiment. Cows were fed hay to supply either 70% (Treatments 1, 2) or 40% (Treatments. 3,4) of their ME requirements for maintenance until they became anoestrus. Following a 90-day ...

The effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from rice paddies without compromising yield by early-season drainage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Islam, Syed Faiz-Ul; van Groenigen, Jan Willem; Jensen, Lars Stoumann

2018-01-01

Global rice production systems face two opposing challenges: the need to increase production to accommodate the world's growing population while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Adaptations to drainage regimes are one of the most promising options for methane mitigation...... only. A combination of (short or long) ED drainage and one MD drainage episode was found to be the most effective in mitigating CH4 emissions without negatively affecting yield. In particular, compared with CF, the long early-season drainage treatments LE+SM and LE+LM significantly (p

Environmental and hormonal factors in seasonal breeding in free-living male Indian rose-ringed parakeets (Psittacula krameri).

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnaprasadan, T N; Kotak, V C; Sharp, P J; Schmedemann, R; Haase, E

1988-12-01

Seasonal changes in testicular activity, plasma luteinizing hormone (LH), estradiol (E2), testosterone (T), and 5 alpha-dihydrotestosterone (5 alpha-DHT) were related to pair bond formation, nest building, nest defense, and parental behavior in free-living Indian rose-ringed parakeets (Psittacula krameri) in northwest India. Spermatozoa production occurred between January and March when daylengths were short (10-12 hr) and ambient temperature was seasonally low (8-20 degrees C). At other times of the year the testes were regressed. Plasma LH levels increased during the prebreeding period (September-December) when the birds were forming pairs and selecting or defending nest sites. Plasma LH levels increased further between January and March and decreased to seasonal low values during the post breeding period between April and June when the birds were caring for young. Concentrations of plasma androgens and estrogens were similar during the prebreeding and postbreeding phases of the breeding cycle. During the breeding period, the ratios between plasma 5 alpha-DHT and testosterone and between plasma estradiol and testosterone increased. It is proposed that the absence of marked seasonal changes in plasma steroid levels is related to nest defense behavior which occurs during the prebreeding, breeding, and postbreeding phases of the breeding cycle. Winter breeding makes it possible for the parakeets to avoid competition with other birds for nesting sites, to avoid fledging young during the monsoon period, and to take advantage of the winter pea crop which provides the female with extra nutrients for egg production.

Variability in cold front activities modulating cool-season evaporation from a southern inland water in the USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Heping; Blanken, Peter D; Weidinger, Tamas; Nordbo, Annika; Vesala, Timo

2011-01-01

Understanding seasonal variations in the evaporation of inland waters (e.g., lakes and reservoirs) is important for water resource management as well as the prediction of the hydrological cycles in response to climate change. We analyzed eddy covariance-based evaporation measurements from the Ross Barnett Reservoir (32 deg. 26'N, 90 0 02'W; which is always ice-free) in central Mississippi during the cool months (i.e., September-March) of 2007 and 2008, and found that the variability in cold front activities (i.e., passages of cold fronts and cold/dry air masses behind cold fronts) played an important role in modulating the exchange of sensible (H) and latent (λE) heat fluxes. Our analysis showed that 2007's warmer cool season had smaller mean H and λE than 2008's cooler cool season. This implies that the warmer cool season did not accelerate evaporation and heat exchange between the water surface and the atmosphere. Instead, more frequent cold fronts and longer periods of cold/dry air masses behind the cold fronts in 2008 resulted in overall larger H and λE as compared with 2007, this primarily taking the form of sporadic short-term rapid 'pulses' of H and λE losses from the water's surface. These results suggest that future climate-induced changes in frequency of cold fronts and the meteorological properties of the air masses behind cold fronts (e.g., wind speeds, temperature, and humidity), rather than other factors of climate change, would produce significant variations in the water surface's energy fluxes and subsequent evaporation rates.

Season-modulated responses of Neotropical bats to forest fragmentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, Diogo F; Rocha, Ricardo; López-Baucells, Adrià; Farneda, Fábio Z; Carreiras, João M B; Palmeirim, Jorge M; Meyer, Christoph F J

2017-06-01

Seasonality causes fluctuations in resource availability, affecting the presence and abundance of animal species. The impacts of these oscillations on wildlife populations can be exacerbated by habitat fragmentation. We assessed differences in bat species abundance between the wet and dry season in a fragmented landscape in the Central Amazon characterized by primary forest fragments embedded in a secondary forest matrix. We also evaluated whether the relative importance of local vegetation structure versus landscape characteristics (composition and configuration) in shaping bat abundance patterns varied between seasons. Our working hypotheses were that abundance responses are species as well as season specific, and that in the wet season, local vegetation structure is a stronger determinant of bat abundance than landscape-scale attributes. Generalized linear mixed-effects models in combination with hierarchical partitioning revealed that relationships between species abundances and local vegetation structure and landscape characteristics were both season specific and scale dependent. Overall, landscape characteristics were more important than local vegetation characteristics, suggesting that landscape structure is likely to play an even more important role in landscapes with higher fragment-matrix contrast. Responses varied between frugivores and animalivores. In the dry season, frugivores responded more to compositional metrics, whereas during the wet season, local and configurational metrics were more important. Animalivores showed similar patterns in both seasons, responding to the same group of metrics in both seasons. Differences in responses likely reflect seasonal differences in the phenology of flowering and fruiting between primary and secondary forests, which affected the foraging behavior and habitat use of bats. Management actions should encompass multiscale approaches to account for the idiosyncratic responses of species to seasonal variation in

The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

2010-01-01

The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

Modeling seasonal detection patterns for burrowing owl surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Quresh S. Latif; Kathleen D. Fleming; Cameron Barrows; John T. Rotenberry

2012-01-01

To guide monitoring of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) in the Coachella Valley, California, USA, we analyzed survey-method-specific seasonal variation in detectability. Point-based call-broadcast surveys yielded high early season detectability that then declined through time, whereas detectability on driving surveys increased through the season. Point surveys...

Short-term high intensity plyometric training program improves strength, power and agility in male soccer players.

Science.gov (United States)

Váczi, Márk; Tollár, József; Meszler, Balázs; Juhász, Ivett; Karsai, István

2013-03-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of a short-term in-season plyometric training program on power, agility and knee extensor strength. Male soccer players from a third league team were assigned into an experimental and a control group. The experimental group, beside its regular soccer training sessions, performed a periodized plyometric training program for six weeks. The program included two training sessions per week, and maximal intensity unilateral and bilateral plyometric exercises (total of 40 - 100 foot contacts/session) were executed. Controls participated only in the same soccer training routine, and did not perform plyometrics. Depth vertical jump height, agility (Illinois Agility Test, T Agility Test) and maximal voluntary isometric torque in knee extensors using Multicont II dynamometer were evaluated before and after the experiment. In the experimental group small but significant improvements were found in both agility tests, while depth jump height and isometric torque increments were greater. The control group did not improve in any of the measures. Results of the study indicate that plyometric training consisting of high impact unilateral and bilateral exercises induced remarkable improvements in lower extremity power and maximal knee extensor strength, and smaller improvements in soccer-specific agility. Therefore, it is concluded that short-term plyometric training should be incorporated in the in-season preparation of lower level players to improve specific performance in soccer.

Short-Term High Intensity Plyometric Training Program Improves Strength, Power and Agility in Male Soccer Players

Science.gov (United States)

Váczi, Márk; Tollár, József; Meszler, Balázs; Juhász, Ivett; Karsai, István

2013-01-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of a short-term in-season plyometric training program on power, agility and knee extensor strength. Male soccer players from a third league team were assigned into an experimental and a control group. The experimental group, beside its regular soccer training sessions, performed a periodized plyometric training program for six weeks. The program included two training sessions per week, and maximal intensity unilateral and bilateral plyometric exercises (total of 40 – 100 foot contacts/session) were executed. Controls participated only in the same soccer training routine, and did not perform plyometrics. Depth vertical jump height, agility (Illinois Agility Test, T Agility Test) and maximal voluntary isometric torque in knee extensors using Multicont II dynamometer were evaluated before and after the experiment. In the experimental group small but significant improvements were found in both agility tests, while depth jump height and isometric torque increments were greater. The control group did not improve in any of the measures. Results of the study indicate that plyometric training consisting of high impact unilateral and bilateral exercises induced remarkable improvements in lower extremity power and maximal knee extensor strength, and smaller improvements in soccer-specific agility. Therefore, it is concluded that short-term plyometric training should be incorporated in the in-season preparation of lower level players to improve specific performance in soccer. PMID:23717351

CCAA seasonal forecasting

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in ..... Explanation is based on spiritual and social values. Taught by .... that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict rules and practices ...

Light Therapy Boxes for Seasonal Affective Disorder

Science.gov (United States)

Seasonal affective disorder treatment: Choosing a light therapy box Light therapy boxes can offer an effective treatment for seasonal affective disorder. Features such as light intensity, safety, cost and ...

Seasonality of Congenital Anomalies in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Luteijn, Johannes Michiel; Dolk, Helen; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Barisic, Ingeborg; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Calzolari, Elisa; Draper, Elizabeth; Garne, Ester; Gatt, Miriam; Haeusler, Martin; Khoshnood, Babak; McDonnell, Bob; Nelen, Vera; O'Mahony, Mary; Mullaney, Carmel; Queisser-Luft, Annette; Rankin, Judith; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; de Walle, Hermien; Yevtushok, Lyubov

BackgroundThis study describes seasonality of congenital anomalies in Europe to provide a baseline against which to assess the impact of specific time varying exposures such as the H1N1 pandemic influenza, and to provide a comprehensive and recent picture of seasonality and its possible relation to

Seasonality of congenital anomalies in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Luteijn, Johannes Michiel; Dolk, Helen; Addor, Marie-Claude

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: This study describes seasonality of congenital anomalies in Europe to provide a baseline against which to assess the impact of specific time varying exposures such as the H1N1 pandemic influenza, and to provide a comprehensive and recent picture of seasonality and its possible relatio...

Establishing native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barnes, T.G.; Larkin, J.L.; Arnett, M.B. [Univ. of Kentucky, Lexington, KY (United States). Dept. of Forestry

1998-12-31

The authors evaluated various methods of establishing native warm season grasses on two reclaimed Eastern Kentucky mines from 1994--1997. Most current reclamation practices incorporate the use of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and other cool-season grasses/legumes that provide little wildlife habitats. The use of native warm season grasses will likely improve wildlife habitat on reclaimed strip mines. Objectives of this study were to compare the feasibility of establishing these grasses during fall, winter, or spring using a native rangeland seeder or hydroseeding; a fertilizer application at planting; or cold-moist stratification prior to hydroseeding. Vegetative cover, bare ground, species richness, and biomass samples were collected at the end of each growing season. Native warm season grass plantings had higher plant species richness compared to cool-season reclamation mixtures. There was no difference in establishment of native warm season grasses as a result of fertilization or seeding technique. Winter native warm season grass plantings were failures and cold-moist stratification did not increase plant establishment during any season. As a result of a drought during 1997, both cool-season and warm season plantings were failures. Cool-season reclamation mixtures had significantly more vegetative cover and biomass compared to native warm season grass mixtures and the native warm season grass plantings did not meet vegetative cover requirements for bond release. Forbs and legumes that established well included pale purple coneflower (Echinacea pallida), lance-leaf coreopsis (Coreopsis lanceolata), round-headed lespedeza (Lespedeza capitata), partridge pea (Cassia fasiculata), black-eyed susan (Rudbeckia hirta), butterfly milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa), and bergamot (Monarda fistulosa). Results from two demonstration plots next to research plots indicate it is possible to establish native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines for wildlife habitat.

Establishing native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnes, T.G.; Larkin, J.L.; Arnett, M.B.

1998-01-01

The authors evaluated various methods of establishing native warm season grasses on two reclaimed Eastern Kentucky mines from 1994--1997. Most current reclamation practices incorporate the use of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and other cool-season grasses/legumes that provide little wildlife habitats. The use of native warm season grasses will likely improve wildlife habitat on reclaimed strip mines. Objectives of this study were to compare the feasibility of establishing these grasses during fall, winter, or spring using a native rangeland seeder or hydroseeding; a fertilizer application at planting; or cold-moist stratification prior to hydroseeding. Vegetative cover, bare ground, species richness, and biomass samples were collected at the end of each growing season. Native warm season grass plantings had higher plant species richness compared to cool-season reclamation mixtures. There was no difference in establishment of native warm season grasses as a result of fertilization or seeding technique. Winter native warm season grass plantings were failures and cold-moist stratification did not increase plant establishment during any season. As a result of a drought during 1997, both cool-season and warm season plantings were failures. Cool-season reclamation mixtures had significantly more vegetative cover and biomass compared to native warm season grass mixtures and the native warm season grass plantings did not meet vegetative cover requirements for bond release. Forbs and legumes that established well included pale purple coneflower (Echinacea pallida), lance-leaf coreopsis (Coreopsis lanceolata), round-headed lespedeza (Lespedeza capitata), partridge pea (Cassia fasiculata), black-eyed susan (Rudbeckia hirta), butterfly milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa), and bergamot (Monarda fistulosa). Results from two demonstration plots next to research plots indicate it is possible to establish native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines for wildlife habitat

Seasonality in ocean microbial communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Giovannoni, Stephen J; Vergin, Kevin L

2012-02-10

Ocean warming occurs every year in seasonal cycles that can help us to understand long-term responses of plankton to climate change. Rhythmic seasonal patterns of microbial community turnover are revealed when high-resolution measurements of microbial plankton diversity are applied to samples collected in lengthy time series. Seasonal cycles in microbial plankton are complex, but the expansion of fixed ocean stations monitoring long-term change and the development of automated instrumentation are providing the time-series data needed to understand how these cycles vary across broad geographical scales. By accumulating data and using predictive modeling, we gain insights into changes that will occur as the ocean surface continues to warm and as the extent and duration of ocean stratification increase. These developments will enable marine scientists to predict changes in geochemical cycles mediated by microbial communities and to gauge their broader impacts.

Seasonality in Children's Pedometer-Measured Physical Activity Levels

Science.gov (United States)

Beighle, Aaron; Alderman, Brandon; Morgan, Charles F.; Le Masurier, Guy

2008-01-01

Seasonality appears to have an impact on children's physical activity levels, but equivocal findings demand more study in this area. With the increased use of pedometers in both research and practice, collecting descriptive data in various seasons to examine the impact of seasonality on pedometer-measured physical activity among children is…

Seasonal Affective Disorder

Science.gov (United States)

... than any non-seasonal depressions. Symptoms of Major Depression Feeling depressed most of the day, nearly every ... Bethesda, MD 20892-9663 Follow Us Facebook Twitter YouTube Google Plus NIMH Newsletter NIMH RSS Feed NIMH ...

Two distinct patterns of seasonal variation of airborne black carbon over Tibetan Plateau.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mo; Xu, Baiqing; Wang, Ninglian; Cao, Junji; Tie, Xuexi; Wang, Hailong; Zhu, Chongshu; Yang, Wei

2016-12-15

Airborne black carbon (BC) mass concentrations were measured from November 2012 to June 2013 at Ranwu and Beiluhe, located in the southeastern and central Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Monthly mean BC concentrations show a winter (November-February) high (413.2ngm -3 ) and spring (March-June) low (139.1ngm -3 ) at Ranwu, but in contrast a winter low and spring high at Beiluhe (204.8 and 621.6ngm -3 , respectively). By examining the meteorological conditions at various scales, we found that the monthly variation of airborne BC over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) was highly influenced by regional precipitation and over the hinterland by winds. Local precipitation at both sites showed little impact on the seasonal variation of airborne BC concentrations. Potential BC source regions are identified using air mass backward trajectory analysis. At Ranwu, BC was dominated by the air masses from the northeastern India and Bangladesh in both winter and spring, whereas at Beiluhe it was largely contributed by air masses from the south slope of Himalayas in winter, and from the arid region in the north of the TP in spring. The winter and spring seasonal peak of BC in the southern TP is largely contributed by emissions from South Asia, and this seasonal variation is heavily influenced by the regional monsoon. In the northern TP, BC had high concentrations during spring and summer seasons, which is very likely associated with more efficient transport of BC over the arid regions on the north of Tibetan Plateau and in Central Asia. Airborne BC concentrations at the Ranwu sampling site showed a significant diurnal cycle with a peak shortly after sunrise followed by a decrease before noon in both winter and spring, likely shaped by local human activities and the diurnal variation of wind speed. At the Beiluhe sampling site, the diurnal variation of BC is different and less distinct. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Two distinct patterns of seasonal variation of airborne black carbon over Tibetan Plateau

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Wang, Mo; Xu, Baiqing; Wang, Ninglian; Cao, Junji; Tie, Xuexi; Wang, Hailong; Zhu, Chongshu; Yang, Wei

2016-12-01

Airborne black carbon (BC) mass concentrations were measured from November 2012 to June 2013 at Ranwu and Beiluhe, located in the southeastern and central Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Monthly mean BC concentrations showawinter (November–February) high (413.2 ng m^$-$3) and spring (March–June) low(139.1 ng m^$-$3) at Ranwu, but in contrast awinter lowand spring high at Beiluhe (204.8 and 621.6 ng m^$-$3, respectively). By examining the meteorological conditions at various scales, we found that themonthly variation of airborne BC over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) was highly influenced by regional precipitation and over the hinterland by winds. Local precipitation at both sites showed little impact on the seasonal variation of airborne BC concentrations. Potential BC source regions are identified using air mass backward trajectory analysis. At Ranwu, BC was dominated by the air masses from the northeastern India and Bangladesh in both winter and spring, whereas at Beiluhe it was largely contributed by air masses from the south slope of Himalayas in winter, and from the arid region in the north of the TP in spring. Thewinter and spring seasonal peak of BC in the southern TP is largely contributed by emissions from South Asia, and this seasonal variation is heavily influenced by the regional monsoon. In the northern TP, BC had high concentrations during spring and summer seasons, which is very likely associated with more efficient transport of BC over the arid regions on the north of Tibetan Plateau and in Central Asia. Airborne BC concentrations at the Ranwusampling site showed a significant diurnal cyclewith a peak shortly after sunrise followed by a decrease before noon in both winter and spring, likely shaped by local human activities and the diurnal variation of wind speed. At the Beiluhe sampling site, the diurnal variation of BC is different and less distinct.

Seasonal varability of the Canary Current

Science.gov (United States)

Vélez-Belchí, P.; Hernandez-Guerra, A.; Pérez-Hernández, M. D.

2016-02-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is recognized as an important component of the climate system, contributing to the relatively mild climate of northwest Europe. Due to its importance, the strength of the AMOC is continually monitored along 26ºN with several moorings, east of the Bahamas, in the Middle Atlantic Ridge and south of the Canary islands, known as the RAPID array. The measurements of the RAPID array show a 6 Sv seasonal cycle for the AMOC, and recent studies have pointed out the dynamics of the eastern Atlantic as the main driver for this seasonal cycle, specifically, rossby waves excited south of the Canary Islands.Due to the important role of the eastern Atlantic, in this study we describe the seasonal cycle of the Canary Current (CC) and the Canary Upwelling Current (CUC), using hydrographic data from two cruises carried out in a box around the Canary Islands, the region where the eastern component of the RAPID array is placed. CTD, VMADCP and LADCP data were combined with inverse modeling in order to determine absolute geostrophic transports in the Canary Islands region in fall and spring. During spring, the overall transport of Canary Current and the CUC was southward. In the Lanzarote Passage (LP), between the Canary Islands and Africa, the CUC transported 0.6±0.20 Sv southward, while the Canary Current transported 1.0±0.40 Sv in the oceanic waters of the Canary Islands Archipelago. During fall, the CUC transported 2.8±0.4Sv northward, while the CC transported 2.9±0.60 Sv southward in the oceanic waters of the Canary Islands Archipelago. The seasonal cycle observed has and amplitude of 3.4Sv for the CUC and 1.9Sv for the CC. Data from a mooring in the LP and the hydrographic data was used to calibrate geostrophic transport estimated using altimetry data. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle of the geostrophic transport obtained using the calibrated altimetry data (Figure 1) was quite similar to the seasonal cycle of the

Seasonal cycle of the Canary Current.

Science.gov (United States)

Vélez-Belchí, P.; Hernandez-Guerra, A.; Pérez-Hernández, M. D.

2015-12-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is recognized as an important component of the climate system, contributing to the relatively mild climate of northwest Europe. Due to its importance, the strength of the AMOC is continually monitored along 26ºN with several moorings east of the Bahamas, in the Middle Atlantic Ridge and south of the Canary islands, known as the RAPID array. The measurements of the RAPID array show a 6 Sv seasonal cycle for the AMOC, and recent studies have pointed out the dynamics of the eastern Atlantic as the main driver for this seasonal cycle, specifically, rossby waves excited south of the Canary Islands. Due to the important role of the eastern Atlantic, in this study we describe the seasonal cycle of the Canary Current (CC) and the Canary Upwelling Current (CUC) using hydrographic data from two cruises carried out in a box around the Canary Islands, the region where the eastern component of the RAPID array is placed. CTD, VMADCP and LADCP data were combined with inverse modeling in order to determine absolute geostrophic transports in the Canary Islands region in fall and spring. During spring, the overall transport of Canary Current and the CUC was southward. In the Lanzarote Passage (LP), between the Canary Islands and Africa, the CUC transported 0.6±0.20 Sv southward, while the Canary Current transported 1.0±0.40 Sv in the oceanic waters of the Canary Islands Archipelago. During fall, the CUC transported 2.8±0.4Sv northward, while the CC transported 2.9±0.60 Sv southward in the oceanic waters of the Canary Islands Archipelago. The seasonal cycle observed has an amplitude of 3.4Sv for the CUC and 1.9Sv for the CC. Data from a mooring in the LP and the hydrographic data was used to calibrate geostrophic transport estimated using altimetry data. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle of the geostrophic transport obtained using the calibrated altimetry data (Figure 1) was quite similar to the seasonal cycle of the

Water quality of small seasonal wetlands in the Piedmont ecoregion, South Carolina, USA: Effects of land use and hydrological connectivity.

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Yu, Xubiao; Hawley-Howard, Joanna; Pitt, Amber L; Wang, Jun-Jian; Baldwin, Robert F; Chow, Alex T

2015-04-15

Small, shallow, seasonal wetlands with short hydroperiod (2-4 months) play an important role in the entrapment of organic matter and nutrients and, due to their wide distribution, in determining the water quality of watersheds. In order to explain the temporal, spatial and compositional variation of water quality of seasonal wetlands, we collected water quality data from forty seasonal wetlands in the lower Blue Ridge and upper Piedmont ecoregions of South Carolina, USA during the wet season of February to April 2011. Results indicated that the surficial hydrological connectivity and surrounding land-use were two key factors controlling variation in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) in these seasonal wetlands. In the sites without obvious land use changes (average developed area land use changes. The connected wetlands in more urbanized areas (average developed area = 12.3%) showed higher concentrations of dissolved organic matter (DOM) (DOC: 11.76 ± 6.09 mg L(-1), TDN: 0.74 ± 0.22 mg L(-1), mean ± standard error) compared to those in isolated wetlands (DOC: 7.20 ± 0.62 mg L(-1), TDN: 0.20 ± 0.08 mg L(-1)). The optical parameters derived from UV and fluorescence also confirmed significant portions of protein-like fractions likely originating from land use changes such as wastewater treatment and livestock pastures. The average of C/N molar ratios of all the wetlands decreased from 77.82 ± 6.72 (mean ± standard error) in February to 15.14 ± 1.58 in April, indicating that the decomposition of organic matter increased with the temperature. Results of this study demonstrate that the water quality of small, seasonal wetlands has a direct and close association with the surrounding environment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonality effect on the allelopathy of cerrado species

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AB Gatti

Full Text Available The Brazilian cerrado presents strong climate seasonality. During the dry season, plants may be exposed to stressful situations, such as a soil surface water deficit, that stimulate their chemical defenses. However, the seasonality effect on the production of allelopathic compounds of cerrado plant species is poorly understood. In this study, the phytotoxic activities of common native cerrado plants were evaluated during rainy and dry seasons. Crude leaves extracts (10% concentration: weight/volume, with dry leaves and distilled water from eleven species were tested on lettuce and sesame germination. The negative effects on germination percentages, rates and informational entropies of the target species were higher when submitted to plant extracts from the dry season, where the germination rate was the most sensible parameter. The higher sensibility of lettuce and the germination rate parameter showed this difference. Only two exceptions had higher effects for rainy season extracts; one species showed higher negative effects on germination informational entropy of lettuce and another species on the germination rate of sesame. Thus, increases in the allelopathic activity were seen in the majority of the studied cerrado plant species during the dry season. These distinct responses to stressful situations in a complex environment such as the Brazilian cerrado may support the establishment and survival of some species.

Increased health risk in subjects with high self-reported seasonality.

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Nicolas M Øyane

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Seasonal variations in mood and behaviour, termed seasonality, are commonly reported in the general population. As a part of a large cross-sectional health survey in Hordaland, Norway, we investigated the relationship between seasonality, objective health measurements and health behaviours. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 11,545 subjects between 40-44 years old participated, completing the Global Seasonality Score, measuring seasonality. Waist/hip circumference, BMI and blood pressure were measured, and blood samples were analyzed for total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides and glucose. Subjects also completed a questionnaire on miscellaneous health behaviours (exercise, smoking, alcohol consumption. Hierarchical linear regression analyses were used to investigate associations between seasonality and objective health measurements, while binary logistic regression was used for analysing associations between seasonality and health behaviours. Analyses were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, month of questionnaire completion and sleep duration. Seasonality was positively associated with high waist-hip-ratio, BMI, triglyceride levels, and in men high total cholesterol. Seasonality was negatively associated with HDL cholesterol. In women seasonality was negatively associated with prevalence of exercise and positively associated with daily cigarette smoking. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: High seasonality was associated with objective health risk factors and in women also with health behaviours associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease.

Seasonal Prediction of Taiwan's Streamflow Using Teleconnection Patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chia-Jeng; Lee, Tsung-Yu

2017-04-01

Seasonal streamflow as an integrated response to complex hydro-climatic processes can be subject to activity of prevailing weather systems potentially modulated by large-scale climate oscillations (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO). To develop a seamless seasonal forecasting system in Taiwan, this study assesses how significant Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow in different seasons correlate with selected teleconnection patterns. Long-term precipitation and streamflow data in three major precipitation seasons, namely the spring rains (February to April), Mei-Yu (May and June), and typhoon (July to September) seasons, are derived at 28 upstream and 13 downstream catchments in Taiwan. The three seasons depict a complete wet period of Taiwan as well as many regions bearing similar climatic conditions in East Asia. Lagged correlation analysis is then performed to investigate how the precipitation and streamflow data correlate with predominant teleconnection indices at varied lead times. Teleconnection indices are selected only if they show certain linkage with weather systems and activity in the three seasons based on previous literature. For instance, the ENSO and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, proven to influence East Asian climate across seasons and summer typhoon activity, respectively, are included in the list of climate indices for correlation analysis. Significant correlations found between Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow and teleconnection indices are further examined by a climate regime shift (CRS) test to identify any abrupt changes in the correlations. The understanding of existing CRS is useful for informing the forecasting system of the changes in the predictor-predictand relationship. To evaluate prediction skill in the three seasons and skill differences between precipitation and streamflow, hindcasting experiments of precipitation and streamflow are conducted using stepwise linear regression models. Discussion and suggestions for coping

Mapping human interaction with the Bering Sea ecosystem: Comparing seasonal use areas, lifetime use areas, and "calorie-sheds"

Science.gov (United States)

Huntington, Henry P.; Ortiz, Ivonne; Noongwook, George; Fidel, Maryann; Childers, Dorothy; Morse, Muriel; Beaty, Julia; Alessa, Lilian; Kliskey, Andrew

2013-10-01

Alaska Native coastal communities interact with the marine environment in many ways, especially through the harvest of fish, marine mammals, and seabirds. The spatial characteristics of this interaction are often depicted in terms of subsistence use areas: the places where harvests and associated travel occur. Another way to consider the interaction is to examine the areas where harvested species range during their lifecycle or annual migratory path. In this paper, we compare seasonal subsistence use areas, lifetime subsistence use areas, and "calorie-sheds," or the area over which harvested species range. Each perspective offers useful information concerning not only the nature of human-environment interactions but also the scope for potential conflict with other human activity and the means by which such conflicts could be reduced, avoided, or otherwise addressed. Seasonal subsistence use areas can be used to manage short-term activities, such as seasonal vessel traffic during community re-supply. Lifetime subsistence use areas indicate the area required to allow hunters and fishers the flexibility to adjust to interannual variability and perhaps to adapt to a changing environment. Calorie-sheds indicate the areas about which a community may be concerned due to potential impacts on the species they harvest.

Short-lived pollutants in the Arctic: their climate impact and possible mitigation strategies

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S. Menon

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Several short-lived pollutants known to impact Arctic climate may be contributing to the accelerated rates of warming observed in this region relative to the global annually averaged temperature increase. Here, we present a summary of the short-lived pollutants that impact Arctic climate including methane, tropospheric ozone, and tropospheric aerosols. For each pollutant, we provide a description of the major sources and the mechanism of forcing. We also provide the first seasonally averaged forcing and corresponding temperature response estimates focused specifically on the Arctic. The calculations indicate that the forcings due to black carbon, methane, and tropospheric ozone lead to a positive surface temperature response indicating the need to reduce emissions of these species within and outside the Arctic. Additional aerosol species may also lead to surface warming if the aerosol is coincident with thin, low lying clouds. We suggest strategies for reducing the warming based on current knowledge and discuss directions for future research to address the large remaining uncertainties.

Short-lived pollutants in the Arctic: their climate impact and possible mitigation strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Menon, Surabi; Quinn, P.K.; Bates, T.S.; Baum, E.; Doubleday, N.; Fiore, A.M.; Flanner, M.; Fridlind, A.; Garrett, T.J.; Koch, D.; Menon, S.; Shindell, D.; Stohl, A.; Warren, S.G.

2007-09-24

Several short-lived pollutants known to impact Arctic climate may be contributing to the accelerated rates of warming observed in this region relative to the global annually averaged temperature increase. Here, we present a summary of the short-lived pollutants that impact Arctic climate including methane, tropospheric ozone, and tropospheric aerosols. For each pollutant, we provide a description of the major sources and the mechanism of forcing. We also provide the first seasonally averaged forcing and corresponding temperature response estimates focused specifically on the Arctic. The calculations indicate that the forcings due to black carbon, methane, and tropospheric ozone lead to a positive surface temperature response indicating the need to reduce emissions of these species within and outside the Arctic. Additional aerosol species may also lead to surface warming if the aerosol is coincident with thin, low lying clouds. We suggest strategies for reducing the warming based on current knowledge and discuss directions for future research to address the large remaining uncertainties.

Does a more skilful meteorological input lead to a more skilful flood forecast at seasonal timescales?

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, Jessica; Arnal, Louise; Magnusson, Linus; Cloke, Hannah

2017-04-01

Seasonal river flow forecasts are important for many aspects of the water sector including flood forecasting, water supply, hydropower generation and navigation. In addition to short term predictions, seasonal forecasts have the potential to realise higher benefits through more optimal and consistent decisions. Their operational use however, remains a challenge due to uncertainties posed by the initial hydrologic conditions (e.g. soil moisture, groundwater levels) and seasonal climate forcings (mainly forecasts of precipitation and temperature), leading to a decrease in skill with increasing lead times. Here we present a stakeholder-led case study for the Thames catchment (UK), currently being undertaken as part of the H2020 IMPREX project. The winter of 2013-14 was the wettest on record in the UK; driven by 12 major Atlantic depressions, the Thames catchment was subject to compound (concurrent) flooding from fluvial and groundwater sources. Focusing on the 2013-14 floods, this study aims to see whether increased skill in meteorological input translates through to more accurate forecasting of compound flood events at seasonal timescales in the Thames catchment. An earlier analysis of the ECMWF System 4 (S4) seasonal meteorological forecasts revealed that it did not skilfully forecast the extreme event of winter 2013-14. This motivated the implementation of an atmospheric experiment by the ECMWF to force the S4 to more accurately represent the low-pressure weather conditions prevailing in winter 2013-14 [1]. Here, we used both the standard and the "improved" S4 seasonal meteorological forecasts to force the EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) LISFLOOD hydrological model. Both hydrological forecasts were started on the 1st of November 2013 and run for 4 months of lead time to capture the peak of the 2013-14 flood event. Comparing the seasonal hydrological forecasts produced with both meteorological forcing data will enable us to assess how the improved meteorology

The seasonal cycle of water on Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Jakosky, B. M.

1985-01-01

A review of the behavior of water in the Mars atmosphere and subsurface is appropriate now that data from the Mariner and Viking spacecraft have been analyzed and discussed for several years following completion of those missions. Observations and analyses pertinent to the seasonal cycle of water vapor in the atmosphere of Mars are reviewed, with attention toward transport of water and the seasonal exchange of water between the atmosphere and various non-atmospheric reservoirs. Possible seasonally-accessible sources and sinks for water include water ice on or within the seasonal and residual polar caps; surface or subsurface ice in the high-latitude regions of the planet; adsorbed or chemically-bound water within the near-surface regolith; or surface or subsurface liquid water. The stability of water within each of these reservoirs is discussed, as are the mechanisms for driving exchange of the water with the atmosphere and the timescales for exchange. Specific conclusions are reached about the distribution of water and the viability of each mechanism as a seasonal reservoir. Discussion is also included of the behavior of water on longer timescales, driven by the variations in solar forcing due to the quasi-periodic variations of the orbital obliquity. Finally, specific suggestions are made for future observations from spacecraft which would further define or constrain the seasonal cycle of water.

Seasonal prediction of lightning activity in North Western Venezuela: Large-scale versus local drivers

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, Á. G.; Díaz-Lobatón, J.; Chourio, X.; Stock, M. J.

2016-05-01

The Lake Maracaibo Basin in North Western Venezuela has the highest annual lightning rate of any place in the world (~ 200 fl km- 2 yr- 1), whose electrical discharges occasionally impact human and animal lives (e.g., cattle) and frequently affect economic activities like oil and natural gas exploitation. Lightning activity is so common in this region that it has a proper name: Catatumbo Lightning (plural). Although short-term lightning forecasts are now common in different parts of the world, to the best of the authors' knowledge, seasonal prediction of lightning activity is still non-existent. This research discusses the relative role of both large-scale and local climate drivers as modulators of lightning activity in the region, and presents a formal predictability study at seasonal scale. Analysis of the Catatumbo Lightning Regional Mode, defined in terms of the second Empirical Orthogonal Function of monthly Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS-TRMM) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite data for North Western South America, permits the identification of potential predictors at seasonal scale via a Canonical Correlation Analysis. Lightning activity in North Western Venezuela responds to well defined sea-surface temperature patterns (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Mode) and changes in the low-level meridional wind field that are associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone migrations, the Caribbean Low Level Jet and tropical cyclone activity, but it is also linked to local drivers like convection triggered by the topographic configuration and the effect of the Maracaibo Basin Nocturnal Low Level Jet. The analysis indicates that at seasonal scale the relative contribution of the large-scale drivers is more important than the local (basin-wide) ones, due to the synoptic control imposed by the former. Furthermore, meridional CAPE transport at 925 mb is identified as the best potential predictor for lightning activity in the Lake

Forecasting inflation based on the consumer price index, taking into account the impact of seasonal factors

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A. K. Sapova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The consumer price index is a key indicator of the inflation level in Russia. It is important for the Central Bank and Government in decision-making process. There is a strong need for high-quality analysis and accurate forecast of this index. Modelling and forecasting of consumer price index as a key indicator of inflation are relevant issues in current macroeconomic conditions. The article is dedicated to development of quality short-term forecast of consumer inflation level, with the impact of seasonal factor. Two classes of models (vector autoregression and time series models are considered. It was shown that vector autoregression model of the dependency between consumer price index and nominal effective exchange rate is worse for the proposes of inflation forecast then non-linear model with structural components and conventional heteroscedasticity. The practical significance of this work is that the developed approach to the forecasting of the consumer price index adjusted of seasonal factor can be very helpful for the purpose of proper assessment and regulation of inflation.

Knowledge, access and utilization of bed-nets among stable and seasonal migrants in an artemisinin resistance containment area of Myanmar.

Science.gov (United States)

Phyo Than, Wint; Oo, Tin; Wai, Khin Thet; Thi, Aung; Owiti, Philip; Kumar, Binay; Deepak Shewade, Hemant; Zachariah, Rony

2017-09-14

Myanmar lies in the Greater Mekong sub-region of South-East Asia faced with the challenge of emerging resistance to artemisinin combination therapies (ACT). Migrant populations are more likely than others to spread ACT resistance. A vital intervention to reduce malaria transmission, resistance spread and eliminate malaria is the use of bed nets. Among seasonal and stable migrants in an artemisinin resistance containment region of Myanmar, we compared a) their household characteristics, b) contact with health workers and information material, and c) household knowledge, access and utilization of bed nets. Secondary data from community-based surveys on 2484 migrant workers (2013 and 2014, Bago Region) were analyzed of which 37% were seasonal migrants. Bed net access and utilization were assessed using a) availability of at least one bed net per household, and b) one bed net per two persons, and c) proportion of household members who slept under abed net during the previous night (Indicator targets = 100%). Over 70% of all migrants were from unstable work settings with short transitory stays. Average household size was five (range 1-25) and almost half of all households had children under-five years. Roughly 10 % of migrants were night-time workers. Less than 40% of households had contact with health workers and less than 30% had exposure to information education and communication (IEC) materials, the latter being significantly lower among seasonal migrants. About 70% of households were aware of the importance of insecticide-treated bed-nets/long-lasting insecticidal nets (ITNs/LLINs), but knowledge on insecticide impregnation and retreatment of ITNs was poor (Myanmar. Possible ways forward include frequent distribution campaigns to compensate for short transitory stays, matching household distributions to household size, enhanced information campaigns and introducing legislation to make mosquito repellents available for night-time workers at plantations and farms

Seasonal movements of wildlife and livestock in a heterogenous pastoral landscape: Implications for coexistence and community based conservation

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Peter Tyrrell

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Rangelands across the world are home to millions of pastoral people and vast wildlife populations, which create a complex landscape for conservation. Community based conservation has been used to promote human-wildlife coexistence on pastoral lands, protecting wildlife outside of official protected areas. With the spread of community based conservation within the rangelands there is a need for more information on successful management practices. This study provides an example of this in the South Rift, Kenya, where seasonal movements of pastoralists aid coexistence. We used Density Surface Modelling (DSM, a novel tool for conservation managers in the rangelands, to predict wildlife and livestock abundance across the landscape and seasons. Wildlife grazers, zebra (Equus burchelli and wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus, follow expected metabolic patterns, feeding on short grass outside the conservation area in the wet season, before returning to the taller-lower quality grazing in the conservation areas during the drought. Browsing wildlife, impala (Aepyceros melampus and Grant’s gazelle (Nanger granti, move from open grassland and bushland areas into thicker, denser browse as the seasons progress towards the drought. Livestock, both shoats (Ovis aries, and Capra aegagrus hircus and cattle (Bos indicus, are managed by community grazing committees, who enforce a grazing plan that creates spatial–temporal separation between wildlife and livestock. They exploit the high-quality grazing in the livestock area during the wet season while conserving pasture in the conservation area, which is utilized only as forage is depleted. This ensures that wildlife has access to a diverse resource base across all seasons and potentially reduces competition, allowing for a diverse and abundant wildlife community to coexist with livestock. This highlights the importance of the presence and maintenance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity of forage resources

Seasonality of alcohol-related phenomena in Estonia

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Silm, Siiri; Ahas, Rein

2005-03-01

We studied alcohol consumption and its consequences as a seasonal phenomenon in Estonia and analysed the social and environmental factors that may cause its seasonal rhythm. There are two important questions when researching the seasonality of human activities: (1) whether it is caused by natural or social factors, and (2) whether the impact of the factors is direct or indirect. Often the seasonality of social phenomena is caused by social factors, but the triggering mechanisms are related to environmental factors like temperature, precipitation, and radiation via the circannual calendar. The indicators of alcohol consumption in the current paper are grouped as: (1) pre-consumption phenomena, i.e. production, tax and excise, sales (beer, wine and vodka are analysed separately), and (2) post-consumption phenomena, i.e. alcohol-related crime and traffic accidents and the number of people detained in lockups and admitted to alcohol treatment clinics. In addition, seasonal variability in the amount of alcohol advertising has been studied, and a survey has been carried out among 87 students of Tartu University. The analysis shows that different phenomena related to alcohol have a clear seasonal rhythm in Estonia. The peak period of phenomena related to beer is in the summer, from June to August and the low point is during the first months of the year. Beer consumption correlates well with air temperature. The consumption of vodka increases sharply at the end of the year and in June; the production of vodka does not have a significant correlation with negative temperatures. The consumption of wine increases during summer and in December. The consequences of alcohol consumption, expressed as the rate of traffic accidents or the frequency of medical treatment, also show seasonal variability. Seasonal variability of alcohol consumption in Estonia is influenced by natural factors (temperature, humidity, etc.) and by social factors (celebrations, vacations, etc.). However

Seasonal variation in the environmental background level of cosmic ray produced 22Na

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokuyama, Hideki; Igarashi, Shuichi

1998-01-01

22 Na (half life 2.6 year) is produced by cosmic rays, nuclear test and reactor. 7 Be (half life 53.3 day) is produced in atmosphere by reaction. 7 Be/ 22 Na activity ratio is good factor to observe the mixing process between stratosphere and troposphere atmosphere. The seasonal variation of 7 Be and 22 Na deposition, the ratio and the background level of 22 Na deposition were observed in Fukui city and reported in this paper. Very large reasonable change of 22 Na deposition was observed, especially the largest peak in winter. Because the concentration of cosmic-ray-produced nuclear in precipitation and the amount of precipitation were large in winter. 22 Na produced by the previous nuclear test was attenuated. The present 22 Na is only produced by cosmic rays, indicating the background level. 22 Na deposition at Fukui was 0.42Bq m -2 y -1 , one ten-thousandth of 7 Be deposition. 7 Be/ 22 Na activity ratio was changed in season and the largest peak was shown in autumn. In this reason, atmosphere showed relatively short residence time in the lower part of stratosphere, Mixture and exchange of atmosphere between stratosphere and troposphere were the most active in autumn. (S.Y.)

Global drought outlook by means of seasonal forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Ziese, Markus; Fröhlich, Kristina; Rustemeier, Elke; Becker, Andreas

2017-04-01

Droughts are naturally occurring phenomena which are caused by a shortage of available water due to lower than normal precipitation and/or above normal evaporation. Depending on the length of the droughts, several sectors are affected starting with agriculture, then river and ground water levels and finally socio-economic losses at the long end of the spectrum of drought persistence. Droughts are extreme events that affect much larger areas and last much longer than floods, but are less geared towards media than floods being more short-scale in persistence and impacts. Finally the slow onset of droughts make the detection and early warning of their beginning difficult and time is lost for preparatory measures. Drought indices are developed to detect and classify droughts based on (meteorological) observations and possible additional information tailored to specific user needs, e.g. in agriculture, hydrology and other sectors. Not all drought indices can be utilized for global applications as not all input parameters are available at this scale. Therefore the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) developed a drought index as combination of the Standardized Drought Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the GPCC-DI. The GPCC-DI is applied to drought monitoring and retrospective analyses on a global scale. As the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) operates a seasonal forecast system in cooperation with Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology Hamburg and University of Hamburg, these data are also used for an outlook of drought conditions by means of the GPCC-DI. The reliability of seasonal precipitation forecasts is limited, so the drought outlook is available only for forecast months two to four. Based on the GPCC-DI, DWD provides a retrospective analysis, near-real-time monitoring and outlook of drought conditions on a global scale and regular basis.

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

Low interannual precipitation has a greater negative effect than seedling herbivory on the population dynamics of a short-lived shrub, Schiedea obovata.

Science.gov (United States)

Bialic-Murphy, Lalasia; Gaoue, Orou G

2018-01-01

Climate projections forecast more extreme interannual climate variability over time, with an increase in the severity and duration of extreme drought and rainfall events. Based on bioclimatic envelope models, it is projected that changing precipitation patterns will drastically alter the spatial distributions and density of plants and be a primary driver of biodiversity loss. However, many other underlying mechanisms can impact plant vital rates (i.e., survival, growth, and reproduction) and population dynamics. In this study, we developed a size-dependent integral projection model (IPM) to evaluate how interannual precipitation and mollusk herbivory influence the dynamics of a Hawaii endemic short-lived shrub, Schiedea obovata (Caryophyllaceae). Assessing how wet season precipitation effects population dynamics it critical, as it is the timeframe when most of the foliar growth occurs, plants flower and fruit, and seedlings establish. Temporal variation in wet season precipitation had a greater effect than mollusk herbivory on S . obovata population growth rate λ, and the impact of interannual precipitation on vital rates shifted across plant ontogeny. Furthermore, wet season precipitation influenced multiple vital rates in contrasting ways and the effect of precipitation on the survival of larger vegetative and reproductively mature individuals contributed the most to variation in the population growth rate. Among all combination of wet season precipitation and herbivory intensities, the only scenario that led to a growing population was when high wet precipitation was associated with low herbivory. Our study highlights the importance of evaluating how abiotic factors and plant-consumer interactions influence an organism across its life cycle to fully understand the underpinning mechanisms that structure its spatial and temporal distribution and abundance. Our results also illustrate that for short-lived species, like S. obovata , seedling herbivory can have

[Animals' clever adaptation strategy for seasonal changes in environment].

Science.gov (United States)

Ikegami, Keisuke; Yoshimura, Takashi

2015-08-01

Organisms living outside of tropical zones experience seasonal changes in environment. Organisms are using day length as a calendar to change their physiology and behavior such as seasonal breeding, hibernation, migration, and molting. A comparative biology approach revealed underlying mechanisms of vertebrate seasonal reproduction. Here we review the current understanding of vertebrate seasonal reproduction. We Aso describe the involvement of tissue-specific post-translational modification in functional diversification of a hormone.

Season-independent cognitive deficits in seasonal affective disorder and their relation to depressive symptoms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hjordt, Liv Vadskjær; Stenbæk, Dea Siggaard; Ozenne, Brice

2017-01-01

Modalities Test (SDMT) and the Simple Reaction Time (SRT) twice; in summer and in winter. Compared to controls, SAD individuals showed significant season-independent impairments in tasks measuring working memory (LNS), cognitive processing speed (SDMT) and motor speed (SRT). In SAD individuals, cognitive...... processing speed was significantly negatively associated with the seasonal change in SAD depressive symptoms. We present novel evidence that in SAD individuals, working memory, cognitive processing- and motor speed is not only impaired in the winter but also in the summer. This suggests that certain...

Seasonal influence on the response of the somatotropic axis to nutrient restriction and re-alimentation in captive Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus).

Science.gov (United States)

Richmond, Julie P; Jeanniard du Dot, Tiphaine; Rosen, David A S; Zinn, Steven A

2010-03-01

Fluctuations in availability of prey resources can impede acquisition of sufficient energy for maintenance and growth. By investigating the hormonal mechanisms of the somatotropic axis that link nutrition, fat metabolism, and lean tissue accretion, we can assess the physiological impact of decreased nutrient intake on growth. Further, species that undergo seasonal periods of reduced intake as a part of their normal life history may have a differential seasonal response to nutrient restriction. This experiment evaluated the influence of season and age on the response of the somatotropic axis, including growth hormone (GH), insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I, and IGF-binding proteins (BP), to reduced nutrient intake and re-alimentation in Steller sea lions. Eight captive females (five juveniles, three sub-adults) were subject to 28-day periods of food restriction, controlled re-feeding, and ad libitum recovery in summer (long-day photoperiod) and winter (short-day photoperiod). Hormone concentrations were insensitive to type of fish fed (low fat pollock vs. high fat herring), but sensitive to energy intake. Body mass, fat, and IGF-I declined, whereas GH and IGFBP-2 increased during feed restriction. Reduced IGF-I and IGFBP with increased GH during controlled re-feeding suggest that animals did not reach positive energy balance until fed ad libitum. Increased IGF-I, IGFBP-2, IGFBP-3, and reduced GH observed in summer reflected seasonal differences in energy partitioning. There was a strong season and age effect in the response to restriction and re-alimentation, indicating that older, larger animals are better able to cope with stress associated with energy deficit, regardless of season.

Factors associated with differential uptake of seasonal influenza immunizations among underserved communities during the 2009-2010 influenza season.

Science.gov (United States)

Vlahov, David; Bond, Keosha T; Jones, Kandice C; Ompad, Danielle C

2012-04-01

Influenza vaccination coverage remains low and disparities persist. In New York City, a community-based participatory research project (Project VIVA) worked to address this issue in Harlem and the South Bronx by supplementing existing vaccination programs with non-traditional venues (i.e., community-based organizations). We conducted a 10 min survey to assess access to influenza vaccine as well as attitudes and beliefs towards influenza vaccination that could inform intervention development for subsequent seasons. Among 991 participants recruited using street intercept techniques, 63% received seasonal vaccine only, 11% seasonal and H1N1, and 26% neither; 89% reported seeing a health care provider (HCP) during the influenza season. Correlates of immunization among those with provider visits during the influenza season included being US-born, interest in getting the vaccine, concern about self or family getting influenza, an HCP's recommendation and comfort with government. Among those without an HCP visit, factors associated with immunization included being US born, married, interest in getting the vaccine, understanding influenza information, and concern about getting influenza. Factors associated with lack of interest in influenza vaccine included being born outside the US, Black and uncomfortable with government. In medically underserved areas, having access to routine medical care and understanding the medical implications of influenza play an important role in enhancing uptake of seasonal influenza vaccination. Strategies to improve vaccination rates among Blacks and foreign-born residents need to be addressed. The use of non-traditional venues to provide influenza vaccinations in underserved communities has the potential to reduce health disparities.

Seasonal dynamics, age structure and reproduction of four Carabus species (Coleoptera: Carabidae) living in forested landscapes in Hungary

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kádár, Ferenc; Fazekas, Judit P.; Sárospataki, Miklós

2015-01-01

Seasonal dynamics and reproductive phenological parameters of four Carabus species (C. convexus, C. coriaceus, C. germarii and C. hortensis) common in Hungary were studied by pitfall trapping and dissection. Beetles were collected in an abandoned apple orchard and in the bordering oak forest near...... Budapest (Central Hungary), in 1988–1991. The sex ratio was male-dominated, but this was significant only for C. coriaceus. The catch of C. germarii adults showed relatively short activity period with unimodal curve, but activity was longer and bimodal for the other three species. Adults of C. germarii...

Effects of Forecasts on the Revisions of Concurrent Seasonally Adjusted Data Using the X-11 Seasonal Adjustment Procedure.

Science.gov (United States)

Bobbitt, Larry; Otto, Mark

Three Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) forecast procedures for Census Bureau X-11 concurrent seasonal adjustment were empirically tested. Forty time series from three Census Bureau economic divisions (business, construction, and industry) were analyzed. Forecasts were obtained from fitted seasonal ARIMA models augmented with…

Seasonal behavior of radon decay products in indoor air and resulting radiation dose to human respiratory tract

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.M.A. Mostafa

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Most of radiation hazard of indoor radon is largely due to the radon progenies, which are inhaled and deposited in the human respiratory tract. It is essential to evaluate aerodynamic characteristics of the radon progenies, which are either attached or unattached to aerosol particles, because the dose is strongly dependent on the location of deposition in respiratory tract and hence on the aerodynamic characteristics of the aerosol particles. This paper presents the seasonal behavior of radon decay products in indoor air under domestic conditions at Nagoya University, Japan. A low pressure cascade impactor as an instrument for classifying aerosol sizes and imaging plate as a radiation detector have been employed to characterize the activity size distribution of short-lived radon decay products. In parallel, radon and its progenies concentrations were measured. Taking into account the progeny characteristics, the inhalation dose in the different seasons was also estimated based on a lung dose model with the structure that is related to the ICRP66 respiratory tract model. The result evident that, the highest dose 0.22 mSvy−1 was observed during the winter where the highest value of equilibrium equivalent concentration of radon (EEC and lowest value of the activity median aerodynamic diameter (AMAD were found in this season; whereas, the dose in spring appeared to be lowest 0.02 mSvy−1.

Scope on the Skies: Changing of the Seasons

Science.gov (United States)

Riddle, Bob

2011-01-01

Learn the astronomy behind the changing of the seasons. Students know that we mark the change of seasons with the position of the Sun over certain parts of the Earth. The specific time and date for the change of seasons is determined by the position of the Sun, not above the horizon necessarily, nor geographically, but rather where the Sun is…

A Lotka-Volterra competition model with seasonal succession.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsu, Sze-Bi; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2012-01-01

A complete classification for the global dynamics of a Lotka-Volterra two species competition model with seasonal succession is obtained via the stability analysis of equilibria and the theory of monotone dynamical systems. The effects of two death rates in the bad season and the proportion of the good season on the competition outcomes are also discussed. © Springer-Verlag 2011

Advising caution in studying seasonal oscillations in crime rates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kun Dong

Full Text Available Most types of crime are known to exhibit seasonal oscillations, yet the annual variations in the amplitude of this seasonality and their causes are still uncertain. Using a large collection of data from the Houston and Los Angeles Metropolitan areas, we extract and study the seasonal variations in aggravated assault, break in and theft from vehicles, burglary, grand theft auto, rape, robbery, theft, and vandalism for many years from the raw daily data. Our approach allows us to see various long term and seasonal trends and aberrations in crime rates that have not been reported before. We then apply an ecologically motivated stochastic differential equation to reproduce the data. Our model relies only on social interaction terms, and not on any exigent factors, to reproduce both the seasonality, and the seasonal aberrations observed in our data set. Furthermore, the stochasticity in the system is sufficient to reproduce the variations seen in the seasonal oscillations from year to year. Researchers should be very careful about trying to correlate these oscillations with external factors.

Seasonal cues induce phenotypic plasticity of Drosophila suzukii to enhance winter survival.

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Shearer, Peter W; West, Jessica D; Walton, Vaughn M; Brown, Preston H; Svetec, Nicolas; Chiu, Joanna C

2016-03-22

As global climate change and exponential human population growth intensifies pressure on agricultural systems, the need to effectively manage invasive insect pests is becoming increasingly important to global food security. Drosophila suzukii is an invasive pest that drastically expanded its global range in a very short time since 2008, spreading to most areas in North America and many countries in Europe and South America. Preliminary ecological modeling predicted a more restricted distribution and, for this reason, the invasion of D. suzukii to northern temperate regions is especially unexpected. Investigating D. suzukii phenology and seasonal adaptations can lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms through which insects express phenotypic plasticity, which likely enables invasive species to successfully colonize a wide range of environments. We describe seasonal phenotypic plasticity in field populations of D. suzukii. Specifically, we observed a trend of higher proportions of flies with the winter morph phenotype, characterized by darker pigmentation and longer wing length, as summer progresses to winter. A laboratory-simulated winter photoperiod and temperature (12:12 L:D and 10 °C) were sufficient to induce the winter morph phenotype in D. suzukii. This winter morph is associated with increased survival at 1 °C when compared to the summer morph, thus explaining the ability of D. suzukii to survive cold winters. We then used RNA sequencing to identify gene expression differences underlying seasonal differences in D. suzukii physiology. Winter morph gene expression is consistent with known mechanisms of cold-hardening such as adjustments to ion transport and up-regulation of carbohydrate metabolism. In addition, transcripts involved in oogenesis and DNA replication were down-regulated in the winter morph, providing the first molecular evidence of a reproductive diapause in D. suzukii. To date, D. suzukii cold resistance studies suggest that this

Seasonal cycles of pelagic production and consumption

Science.gov (United States)

Longhurst, Alan

Comprehensive seasonal cycles of production and consumption in the pelagial require the ocean to be partitioned. This can be done rationally at two levels: into four primary ecological domains (three oceanic and one coastal), or about fifty biogeochemical provinces. The domains differ in their characteristic seasonal cycles of stability, nutrient supply and illumination, while provinces are defined by ocean currents, fronts, topography and recurrent features in the sea surface chlorophyll field. For each of these compartments, seasonal cycles of photic depth, primary production and accumulation (or loss) of algal biomass were obtained from the climatological CZCS chlorophyll field and other data and these, together with mixed layer depths, rendered characteristic seasonal cycles of production and consumption, which can be grouped into eight models: i - polar irradiance-mediated production peak; ii - nutrient-limited spring production peak; iii - winter-spring production with nutrient limitation; iv - small amplitude response to trade wind seasonality; v - large amplitude response to monsoon reversal; vi - canonical spring-fall blooms of mid-latitude continental shelves; vii - topography-forced summer production; viii - intermittent production at coastal divergences. For higher latitudes, these models suggest that the observed late-summer ‘blooms’ result not from a renewal of primary production rate, but from a relaxation of grazing pressure; in mid-latitudes, the observed ‘winter’ bloom represents chlorophyll accumulation at a season when loss terms are apparently smaller than during the period of peak primary production rate which occurs later, in spring. Where an episodic seasonal increase in rate of primary production occurs, as in the Arabian Sea, algal biomass accumulation may brief, lasting only until consumption is fully re-established. Only in the low latitude oligotrophic ocean are production and consumption perennially and closely coupled.

Influences of a yoga intervention on the postural skills of the Italian short track speed skating team

Science.gov (United States)

Brunelle, Jean-François; Blais-Coutu, Sébastien; Gouadec, Kenan; Bédard, Éric; Fait, Philippe

2015-01-01

Introduction In preparation for a short track speed skating season, eight men and seven women were given yoga sessions during an 8-week high volume training cycle. The sessions were planned according to the postural aspects specific to short track speed skating technical requirements. Three specific goals were selected for the intervention: 1) to observe whether the practice of yoga as postural training could improve the efficiency and the athlete’s repertoire along the muscular synergies solicited in the short track speed skating specific technique; 2) to enhance and diversify the motor time-on-task of athletes without changing the prescription of other training stimulus; and 3) to lower the risk of injury during periods with high volumes of training. Methods A total of 36 sessions of yoga were given. Three postural tests were administered before and after the intervention with 14 angles analyzed. Non-parametric Wilcoxon test was used to compare angles’ variations. Results The 36 yoga sessions totalized 986 minutes of motor time-on-task, registering a proportion of 30% of the global motor time-on-task of the training cycle. Improvements were found in eleven of the 14 angles measured when comparing pre- and post-postural tests (P-value from 0.01 to 0.005). During the 8 weeks, excepting traumatic injuries due to short track speed skating accidents, no skaters suffered injuries linked to the high volume of training. Following the intervention, coaches noticed, following their on-ice feedbacks, an adjustment in the efficiency of the skating technique, in particular regarding hip dissociation. Conclusion These results suggest that yoga could be inserted into out-of-season training cycles, even in a high volume training cycle. Planned with the decision training tools, it allows athletes to diversify their motor time-on-task by integrating a new functional range of generic movements with the solicitation of neuromuscular synergies related to the specificity of their

Seasonal forcing in a host-macroparasite system.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Rachel A; White, Andrew; Sherratt, Jonathan A

2015-01-21

Seasonal forcing represents a pervasive source of environmental variability in natural systems. Whilst it is reasonably well understood in interacting populations and host-microparasite systems, it has not been studied in detail for host-macroparasite systems. In this paper we analyse the effect of seasonal forcing in a general host-macroparasite system with explicit inclusion of the parasite larval stage and seasonal forcing applied to the birth rate of the host. We emphasise the importance of the period of the limit cycles in the unforced system on the resulting dynamics in the forced system. In particular, when subject to seasonal forcing host-macroparasite systems are capable of multi-year cycles, multiple solution behaviour, quasi-periodicity and chaos. The host-macroparasite systems show a larger potential for multiple solution behaviour and a wider range of periodic solutions compared to similar interacting population and microparasite systems. By examining the system for parameters that represent red grouse and the macroparasite nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis we highlight how seasonality could be an important factor in explaining the wide range of seemingly uncorrelated cycle periods observed in grouse abundance in England and Scotland. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional seasonal warming anomalies and land-surface feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.

2017-12-01

Significant seasonal variations in warming are projected in some regions, especially central Europe, the southeastern U.S., and central South America. Europe in particular may experience up to 2°C more warming during June, July, and August than in the annual mean, enhancing the risk of extreme summertime heat. Previous research has shown that heat waves in Europe and other regions are tied to seasonal soil moisture variations, and that in general land-surface feedbacks have a strong effect on seasonal temperature anomalies. In this study, we show that the seasonal anomalies in warming are also due in part to land-surface feedbacks. We find that in regions with amplified warming during the hot season, surface soil moisture levels generally decline and Bowen ratios increase as a result of a preferential partitioning of incoming energy into sensible vs. latent. The CMIP5 model suite shows significant variability in the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and in projections of future precipitation and soil moisture. Due to the dependence of seasonal warming on land-surface processes, these inter-model variations influence the projected summertime warming amplification and contribute to the uncertainty in projections of future extreme heat.

Critical values for unit root tests in seasonal time series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); B. Hobijn (Bart)

1997-01-01

textabstractIn this paper, we present tables with critical values for a variety of tests for seasonal and non-seasonal unit roots in seasonal time series. We consider (extensions of) the Hylleberg et al. and Osborn et al. test procedures. These extensions concern time series with increasing seasonal

Geochemistry of trace metals in shelf sediments affected by seasonal and permanent low oxygen conditions off central Chile, SE Pacific (˜36°S)

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, Praxedes; Dezileau, Laurent; Cardenas, Lissette; Sellanes, Javier; Lange, Carina B.; Inostroza, Jorge; Muratli, Jesse; Salamanca, Marco A.

2012-02-01

Trace metals (Cd, U, Co, Ni, Cu, Ba, Fe, Mn), total organic carbon (TOC) and C and N stable isotope signatures (δ 13C and δ 15N) were determined in short sediments cores from the inner and outer shelf off Concepción, Chile (˜36°S). The objectives were to establish the effect of environmental conditions on trace metal distributions at two shelf sites, one affected by seasonal oxygenation and the other by permanent low oxygen conditions due to the presence of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). We evaluate trace metals as proxies of past changes in primary productivity and the bottom water oxygen regime. Concentrations of pore water sulfides and NH4+ were also measured as indicators of the main diagenetic pathways at each site. Our results for the inner shelf (seasonal suboxia) suggest that the oxidative state of the sediments responds to seasonal pulses of organic matter and that seasonal oxygenation develops during high and low primary productivity in the water column. Here, positive fluxes (to the water column) estimated from pore water concentrations of several elements were observed (Ba, Co, Ni, Fe and Mn). The less reduced environment at this site produces authigenic enrichment of Cu associated with the formation of oxides in the oxic surface sediment layer, and the reduction of U within deeper sediment sections occur consistently with negative estimated pore water fluxes. In the outer shelf sediments (permanent suboxia, OMZ site), negative fluxes (to the sediment) were estimated for all elements, but these sediments showed authigenic enrichments only for Cd, Cu and U. The short oxygenation period during the winter season did not affect the accumulation of these metals on the shelf. The distribution of Cu, Cd and U have been preserved within the sediments and the authigenic accumulation rates estimated showed a decrease from the deep sections of the core to the surface sediments. This could be explained by a gradual decrease in the strength of the OMZ in the

Short-Term Space-Use Patterns of Translocated Mojave Desert Tortoise in Southern California.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew L Farnsworth

Full Text Available Increasingly, renewable energy comprises a larger share of global energy production. Across the western United States, public lands are being developed to support renewable energy production. Where there are conflicts with threatened or endangered species, translocation can be used in an attempt to mitigate negative effects. For the threatened Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii, we sought to compare habitat- and space-use patterns between short-distance translocated, resident, and control groups. We tested for differences in home range size based on utilization distributions and used linear mixed-effects models to compare space-use intensity, while controlling for demographic and environmental variables. In addition, we examined mean movement distances as well as home range overlap between years and for male and female tortoises in each study group. During the first active season post-translocation, home range size was greater and space-use intensity was lower for translocated tortoises than resident and control groups. These patterns were not present in the second season. In both years, there was no difference in home range size or space-use intensity between control and resident groups. Translocation typically resulted in one active season of questing followed by a second active season characterized by space-use patterns that were indistinguishable from control tortoises. Across both years, the number of times a tortoise was found in a burrow was positively related to greater space-use intensity. Minimizing the time required for translocated tortoises to exhibit patterns similar to non-translocated individuals may have strong implications for conservation by reducing exposure to adverse environmental conditions and predation. With ongoing development, our results can be used to guide future efforts aimed at understanding how translocation strategies influence patterns of animal space use.

Seasonal forecasts: communicating current climate variability in southern Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Landman, WA

2011-11-01

Full Text Available seasonal time scale. Seasonal climate forecasts are defined as probabilistic predictions of how much rain is expected during the season and how warm or cool it will be, based primarily on the principle that the ocean (sea-surface temperatures) influences...

Influence of seasonal changes and vigor on appearance of trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miura, T.; Tobioka, J.

1995-01-01

The seasonal changes in trees are highly dependant on their health and growth rate. Monitoring the vigor of trees at every season provides basic data which can be used at trees planting to predict the physiological characteristics of their seasonal change. In this study, 3 kinds of trees ; zelkova, camphor and metasequoia were monthly observed from April to December, using an infrared television camera. The vigor of the trees was evaluated in each season and the relationship between their image and the evaluation in each season was investigated. The data shows that there is a high correlation between the vigor and the seasonal evaluations

Assessing impact of climate change on season length in Karnataka

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Changes in seasons and season length are an indicator, as well as an effect, of climate change. Seasonal change profoundly affects the balance of life in ecosystems and impacts essential human activities such as agriculture and irrigation. This study investigates the uncertainty of season length in Karnataka state, India, ...

Sustainable biochar effects for low carbon crop production: A 5-crop season field experiment on a low fertility soil from Central China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, X.

2014-12-01

Biochar's effects on improving soil fertility, enhancing crop productivity and reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission from croplands had been well addressed in numerous short-term experiments with biochar soil amendment (BSA) mostly in a single crop season / cropping year. However, the persistence of these effects, after a single biochar application, has not yet been well known due to limited long-term field studies so far. Large scale BSA in agriculture is often commented on the high cost due to large amount of biochar in a single application. Here, we try to show the persistence of biochar effects on soil fertility and crop productivity improvement as well as GHGs emission reduction, using data from a field experiment with BSA for 5 crop seasons in central North China. A single amendment of biochar was performed at rates of 0 (C0), 20 (C20) and 40 t ha-1 (C40) before sowing of the first crop season. Emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O were monitored with static closed chamber method throughout the crop growing season for the 1st, 2nd and 5th cropping. Crop yield was measured and topsoil samples were collected at harvest of each crop season. BSA altered most of the soil physic-chemical properties with a significant increase over control in soil organic carbon (SOC) and available potassium (K) content. The increase in SOC and available K was consistent over the 5 crop seasons after BSA. Despite a significant yield increase in the first maize season, enhancement of crop yield was not consistent over crop seasons without corresponding to the changes in soil nutrient availability. BSA did not change seasonal total CO2 efflux but greatly reduced N2O emissions throughout the five seasons. This supported a stable nature of biochar carbon in soil, which played a consistent role in reducing N2O emission, which showed inter-annual variation with changes in temperature and soil moisture conditions. The biochar effect was much more consistent under C40 than under C20 and with

SRKW seasonal occurence - Patterns of seasonal occurrence of Southern Resident Killer Whales

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Patterns of seasonal occurrence of Southern Resident Killer Whales (SRKW) throughout their range. Southern Resident Killer Whales are listed as a Distinct Population...

Seasonal differences in leaf-level physiology give lianas a competitive advantage over trees in a tropical seasonal forest

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cai, Z.Q.; Schnitzer, S.A.; Bongers, F.

2009-01-01

Lianas are an important component of most tropical forests, where they vary in abundance from high in seasonal forests to low in aseasonal forests. We tested the hypothesis that the physiological ability of lianas to fix carbon (and thus grow) during seasonal drought may confer a distinct advantage

Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget

Science.gov (United States)

Zona, Donatella; Gioli, Beniamino; Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Wofsy, Steven C.; Miller, Charles E.; Dinardo, Steven J.; Dengel, Sigrid; Sweeney, Colm; Karion, Anna; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Henderson, John M.; Murphy, Patrick C.; Goodrich, Jordan P.; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Watts, Jennifer D.; Kimball, John S.; Lipson, David A.; Oechel, Walter C.

2016-01-01

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥50% of the annual CH4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the "zero curtain" period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0 °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 y-1, ∼25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ∼6% of total global wetland methane emissions. The dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming.

Synchronic historical patterns of species diversification in seasonal aplocheiloid killifishes of the semi-arid Brazilian Caatinga.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Wilson J E M; Amorim, Pedro F; Mattos, José Leonardo O

2018-01-01

The Caatinga is the largest nucleus of seasonally dry tropical forests in South America, but little is known about the evolutionary history and biogeography of endemic organisms. Evolutionary diversification and distribution of terrestrial vertebrates endemic to the Caatinga have been explained by palaeogeographical Neogene episodes, mostly related to changes in the course of the São Francisco River, the largest river in the region. Our objective is to estimate the timing of divergence of two endemic groups of short-lived seasonal killifishes inhabiting all ecoregions of the Caatinga, testing the occurrence of synchronic events of spatial diversification in light of available data on regional palaeogeography. We performed independent time-calibrated phylogenetic molecular analyses for two clades of sympatric and geographically widespread seasonal killifishes endemic to the Caatinga, the Hypsolebias antenori group and the Cynolebias alpha-clade. Our results consistently indicate that species diversification took place synchronically in both groups, as well as it is contemporary to diversification of other organisms adapted to life in the semi-arid Caatinga, including lizards and small mammals. Both groups originated during the Miocene, but species diversification started between the Late Miocene and Early Pliocene, when global cooling probably favoured the expansion of semi-arid areas. Synchronic diversification patterns found are chronologically related to Tertiary palaeogeographical reorganizations associated to continental drift and to Quaternary climatic changes, corroborating the recent proposal that South American biodiversity has been continuously shaped between the Late Paleogene and Pleistocene.

Synchronic historical patterns of species diversification in seasonal aplocheiloid killifishes of the semi-arid Brazilian Caatinga.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wilson J E M Costa

Full Text Available The Caatinga is the largest nucleus of seasonally dry tropical forests in South America, but little is known about the evolutionary history and biogeography of endemic organisms. Evolutionary diversification and distribution of terrestrial vertebrates endemic to the Caatinga have been explained by palaeogeographical Neogene episodes, mostly related to changes in the course of the São Francisco River, the largest river in the region. Our objective is to estimate the timing of divergence of two endemic groups of short-lived seasonal killifishes inhabiting all ecoregions of the Caatinga, testing the occurrence of synchronic events of spatial diversification in light of available data on regional palaeogeography. We performed independent time-calibrated phylogenetic molecular analyses for two clades of sympatric and geographically widespread seasonal killifishes endemic to the Caatinga, the Hypsolebias antenori group and the Cynolebias alpha-clade. Our results consistently indicate that species diversification took place synchronically in both groups, as well as it is contemporary to diversification of other organisms adapted to life in the semi-arid Caatinga, including lizards and small mammals. Both groups originated during the Miocene, but species diversification started between the Late Miocene and Early Pliocene, when global cooling probably favoured the expansion of semi-arid areas. Synchronic diversification patterns found are chronologically related to Tertiary palaeogeographical reorganizations associated to continental drift and to Quaternary climatic changes, corroborating the recent proposal that South American biodiversity has been continuously shaped between the Late Paleogene and Pleistocene.

Prevalence of Jones Fracture Repair and Impact on Short-Term NFL Participation.

Science.gov (United States)

Tu, Leigh-Anne; Knapik, Derrick M; Sheehan, Joseph; Salata, Michael J; Voos, James E

2018-01-01

Elite American football athletes are at high risk for Jones fractures. Fixation is recommended to minimize nonunion and allow early return to play. The purpose of this investigation was to evaluate the prevalence of Jones fracture repair in athletes invited to the National Football League (NFL) Combine and the impact of fracture repair on short-term NFL participation compared to athletes with no history of repair. A total of 1311 athletes participating in the Combine from 2012 to 2015 were evaluated. Athletes with history of Jones fracture repair were identified. Athlete demographic information was collected while physical examination findings were recorded. Radiographs were evaluated to determine fixation type and the presence of nonunion. Future participation in the NFL was evaluated based on draft status, games played, and games started in the athlete's first season following the Combine. Fixation was performed for 41 Jones fractures in 40 athletes (3.1%). The highest prevalence was in defensive linemen (n = 10 athletes), with the greatest rate in tight ends (5.1%, n = 4 of 79 athletes). Intramedullary screw fixation was used for all fractures. Incomplete bony union was present in 3 (8%) fractures. Athletes with a history of repair were not at significant risk for going undrafted ( P = .61), playing ( P = .23), or starting ( P = .76) fewer NFL games compared to athletes with no history of repair during athletes' first NFL season. Athletes with a history of Jones fracture repair were not at significant risk of going undrafted or for diminished participation during their first season in the NFL. Level IV, case series.

On the applicability of short time measurements to the determination of annual average of radon concentration in dwelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loskiewicz, J.; Olko, P.; Swakon, J.; Bogacz, J.; Janik, M.; Mazur, D.; Mazur, J.

1998-01-01

The variation of radon concentration in some houses in the Krakow region was investigated in order to compare results obtained using various measuring techniques. It is concluded that short-term measurements should last at least 4 days to avoid errors exceeding 30%; that weather parameters and human activity during the measurement should be recorded; that measurements should be repeated several times under various weather conditions; that seasonal variation in the region should be taken into account. (A.K.)

Markov Chain Estimation of Avian Seasonal Fecundity

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To explore the consequences of modeling decisions on inference about avian seasonal fecundity we generalize previous Markov chain (MC) models of avian nest success to formulate two different MC models of avian seasonal fecundity that represent two different ways to model renestin...

Differentiating intraday seasonalities through wavelet multi-scaling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gençay, R.; Selçuk, F.; Whitcher, B.

2001-01-01

It is well documented that strong intraday seasonalities may induce distortions in the estimation of volatility models. These seasonalities are also the dominant source for the underlying misspecifications of the various volatility models. Therefore, an obvious route is to filter out the underlying

Short-term effects of salinity reduction and drainage on salt-marsh biogeochemical cycling and Spartina (Cordgrass) production

Science.gov (United States)

Portnoy, J.W.; Valiela, I.

1997-01-01

To assess the biogeochemical effects of tidal restrictions on salt-marsh sulfur cycling and plant growth, cores of short-form Spartina alterniflora peat were desalinated and kept either waterlogged or drained in greenhouse microcosms. Changes in net Spartina production, and porewater and solid phase chemistry of treated cores were compared to natural conditions in the field collection site over a 21-mo period. Net production among treatments increased significantly in drained and waterlogged peat compared to field conditions during the first growing season. Constantly high sulfide in waterlogged cores accompanied reduced plant growth. Aeration invigorated growth in drained cores but led to oxidization of sulfide minerals and to lowered pH. During the second growing season, growth declined in the drained treatment, probably because of acidification and decreased dissolved inorganic nitrogen. Results are pertinent to the success of current wetland protection and restoration activities in the coastal zone.

Seasonal atmospheric extinction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mikhail, J.S.

1979-01-01

Mean monochromatic extinction coefficients at various wavelengths at the Kottamia Observatory site have shown the existence of a seasonal variation of atmospheric extinction. The extinction of aerosol compontnts with wavelengths at winter represent exceedingly good conditions. Spring gives the highest extinction due to aerosol. (orig.)

Characterization of regional influenza seasonality patterns in China and implications for vaccination strategies: spatio-temporal modeling of surveillance data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongjie Yu

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The complexity of influenza seasonal patterns in the inter-tropical zone impedes the establishment of effective routine immunization programs. China is a climatologically and economically diverse country, which has yet to establish a national influenza vaccination program. Here we characterize the diversity of influenza seasonality in China and make recommendations to guide future vaccination programs.We compiled weekly reports of laboratory-confirmed influenza A and B infections from sentinel hospitals in cities representing 30 Chinese provinces, 2005-2011, and data on population demographics, mobility patterns, socio-economic, and climate factors. We applied linear regression models with harmonic terms to estimate influenza seasonal characteristics, including the amplitude of annual and semi-annual periodicities, their ratio, and peak timing. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling and hierarchical clustering were used to identify predictors of influenza seasonal characteristics and define epidemiologically-relevant regions. The annual periodicity of influenza A epidemics increased with latitude (mean amplitude of annual cycle standardized by mean incidence, 140% [95% CI 128%-151%] in the north versus 37% [95% CI 27%-47%] in the south, p0.6 in provinces located within 27.4°N-31.3°N, slope of latitudinal gradient with latitude -0.016 [95% CI -0.025 to -0.008], p<0.001. In contrast, influenza B activity predominated in colder months throughout most of China. Climate factors were the strongest predictors of influenza seasonality, including minimum temperature, hours of sunshine, and maximum rainfall. Our main study limitations include a short surveillance period and sparse influenza sampling in some of the southern provinces.Regional-specific influenza vaccination strategies would be optimal in China; in particular, annual campaigns should be initiated 4-6 months apart in Northern and Southern China. Influenza surveillance should be strengthened in mid

Seasonal anomalies in electricity intensity across Chinese regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herrerias, M.J.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► We analyze seasonal anomalies in electricity intensity in China. ► Regional and time dimensions are investigated from 2003 to 2009. ► Results suggest that seasonality is stochastic. ► We find four main effects: Summer, Winter, Spring and Lunar New Year effects. ► Differences are observed between northern regions and east-south of China. - Abstract: This paper provides evidence on the relevance of modeling the seasonal nature of electricity intensity across Chinese regions in a suitable manner with monthly data from 2003 to 2009. In contrast to previous works, this study relaxes the assumption of deterministic seasonality, allowing for time and regional variation in the Chinese economy. In doing so, unobserved-components models are used to analyze the type of seasonality – stochastic or deterministic – that prevails. Regional differences in the seasonal patterns and their evolution over time are also examined. Results provide new empirical evidence on the stochastic nature of electricity intensity in the majority of the provinces. In addition, we find four main effects as regards seasonal patterns: (i) Lunar New Year, (ii) Summer, (iii) Spring, and (iv) Winter effects. In the first two effects seasonality becomes positive, thus indicating that electricity intensity increases, and the last two are negative, showing improvements in the use of electricity per unit of output. However, differences are observed between northern regions and the east-south of China. In addition, once we control our estimates for temperature and prices, no significant differences are seen in the results. Conclusions from this analysis are useful for empirical modeling in the energy-economics literature, and also for designing energy policies to improve the efficiency of the use of energy resources across Chinese regions

A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

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Schepen, Andrew; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Wang, Quan J.; Robertson, David E.

2018-03-01

Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs) are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S), which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

Seasonality in molecular and cytometric diversity of marine bacterioplankton: the reshuffling of bacterial taxa by vertical mixing

KAUST Repository

García, Francisca C.

2015-07-17

The ’cytometric diversity’ of phytoplankton communities has been studied based on single-cell properties, but the applicability of this method to characterize bacterioplankton has been unexplored. Here, we analysed seasonal changes in cytometric diversity of marine bacterioplankton along a decadal time-series at three coastal stations in the Southern Bay of Biscay. Shannon-Weaver diversity estimates and Bray-Curtis similarities obtained by cytometric and molecular (16S rRNA tag sequencing) methods were significantly correlated in samples from a 3.5-year monthly time-series. Both methods showed a consistent cyclical pattern in the diversity of surface bacterial communities with maximal values in winter. The analysis of the highly resolved flow cytometry time-series across the vertical profile showed that water column mixing was a key factor explaining the seasonal changes in bacterial composition and the winter increase in bacterial diversity in coastal surface waters. Due to its low cost and short processing time as compared to genetic methods, the cytometric diversity approach represents a useful complementary tool in the macroecology of aquatic microbes.

Seasonal variation in male alternative reproductive tactics.

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Monroe, M J; Amundsen, T; Utne-Palm, A C; Mobley, K B

2016-12-01

Genetic parentage analyses reveal considerable diversity in alternative reproductive behaviours (e.g. sneaking) in many taxa. However, little is known about whether these behaviours vary seasonally and between populations. Here, we investigate seasonal variation in male reproductive behaviours in a population of two-spotted gobies (Gobiusculus flavescens) in Norway. Male two-spotted gobies guard nests, attract females and care for fertilized eggs. We collected clutches and nest-guarding males early and late in the breeding season in artificial nests and used microsatellite markers to reconstruct parentage from a subset of offspring from each nest. We hypothesized that mating, reproductive success and sneaking should be more prevalent early in the breeding season when competition for mates among males is predicted to be higher. However, parentage analyses revealed similar values of mating, reproductive success and high frequencies of successful sneaking early (30% of nests) and late (27% of nests) in the season. We also found that multiple females with eggs in the same nest were fertilized by one or more sneaker males, indicating that some males in this population engage in a satellite strategy. We contrast our results to previous work that demonstrates low levels of cuckoldry in a population in Sweden. Our results demonstrate marked stability in both the genetic mating system and male alternative reproductive tactics over the breeding season. However, sneaking rates may vary geographically within a species, likely due to local selection influencing ecological factors encountered at different locations. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

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Kapnick, Sarah B.; Yang, Xiaosong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Gudgel, Rich; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.; Shevliakova, Elena; Underwood, Seth; Margulis, Steven A.

2018-01-01

Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate

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National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site government Web resources and services. CFS Seasonal Climate Forecasts CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate discontinued after October 2012. This page displays seasonal climate anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast

Seasonality patterns of mood and behavior in the Old Order Amish.

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Falguni; Postolache, Nadine; Mohyuddin, Hira; Vaswani, Dipika; Balis, Theodora; Raheja, Uttam K; Postolache, Teodor T

2012-12-01

Although humans have become partially isolated from physical seasonal environmental changes through artificial lighting and temperature control, seasonal changes in mood and behavior have been described across hemispheres, continents, ethnicities and occupations. The Old Order Amish are more exposed than the general population to environmental seasonal changes both occupationally as well as through their limited use of electric light in the winter and air conditioning in the summer; yet, their seasonal changes in mood and behavior have not been previously studied. The aim of this study was to analyze seasonal patterns in mood and behavior in the Old Order Amish of Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, who returned completed Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaires (SPAQ). Monthly seasonal patterns were analyzed with repeated measures ANOVAs, followed by a post hoc t-test if significant. The χ 2 was used for presence or absence of seasonal patterns for each item. More than 75% of the participants reported at least one seasonal change. More than 75 % endorsed seasonality in "feeling best" but only populations.

Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arritt, Raymond W.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Takle, Eugene S.

2004-01-01

The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average...

Seasonal variations in hospital admissions for mania

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Medici, Clara Reece; Vestergaard, Claus Høstrup; Hadzi-Pavlovic, Dusan

2016-01-01

in summer. Higher admission rates were associated with more sunshine, more ultraviolet radiation, higher temperature and less snow but were unassociated with rainfall. We did not find a secular trend in the seasonal pattern. Finally, neither gender nor admission status impacted on the overall seasonal...

On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

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Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.

2014-01-01

Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time. PMID:24789559

Seasonal Forecast Skill And Teleconnections Over East Africa

Science.gov (United States)

MacLeod, D.; Palmer, T.

2017-12-01

Many people living in East Africa are significantly exposed to risks arising from climate variability. The region experiences two rainy seasons and poor performance of either or both of these (such as seen recently in 2016/17) reduces agricultural productivity and threatens food security. In combination with other factors this can lead to famine. By utilizing seasonal climate forecasts, preparatory actions can be taken in order to mitigate the risks arising from such climate variability. As part of the project ForPAc: "Towards forecast-based preparedness action", we are working with humanitarian agencies in Kenya to build such early warning systems on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales. Here, the seasonal predictability and forecast skill of the two East African rainy seasons will be presented. Results from the new ECMWF operational forecasting system SEAS5 will be shown and compared to the previous System 4. Analysis of a new 110 year long atmosphere-only simulation will also be discussed, demonstrating impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling as well as putting operational forecast skill in a long-term context. Particular focus will be given to the model representation of teleconnections of seasonal climate with global sea surface temperatures; highlighting sources of forecast error and informing future model development.

Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing.

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Miller, Paige B; O'Dea, Eamon B; Rohani, Pejman; Drake, John M

2017-09-06

Despite high vaccination coverage, many childhood infections pose a growing threat to human populations. Accurate disease forecasting would be of tremendous value to public health. Forecasting disease emergence using early warning signals (EWS) is possible in non-seasonal models of infectious diseases. Here, we assessed whether EWS also anticipate disease emergence in seasonal models. We simulated the dynamics of an immunizing infectious pathogen approaching the tipping point to disease endemicity. To explore the effect of seasonality on the reliability of early warning statistics, we varied the amplitude of fluctuations around the average transmission. We proposed and analyzed two new early warning signals based on the wavelet spectrum. We measured the reliability of the early warning signals depending on the strength of their trend preceding the tipping point and then calculated the Area Under the Curve (AUC) statistic. Early warning signals were reliable when disease transmission was subject to seasonal forcing. Wavelet-based early warning signals were as reliable as other conventional early warning signals. We found that removing seasonal trends, prior to analysis, did not improve early warning statistics uniformly. Early warning signals anticipate the onset of critical transitions for infectious diseases which are subject to seasonal forcing. Wavelet-based early warning statistics can also be used to forecast infectious disease.

Seasonal and cryopreservation impacts on semen quality in boars

Science.gov (United States)

Seasonal boar infertility occurs worldwide and contributes to economic loss to the pork industry. The current study evaluated cooled vs cryopreserved semen quality of 11 Duroc boars collected in June (cool season) and August 2014 (warm season). Semen was cooled to 16°C (cooled) or frozen over liquid...

Seasonal variation in child mortality in rural Guinea-Bissau

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Bibi Uhre; Byberg, Stine; Aaby, Peter

2017-01-01

Objectives: In many African countries, child mortality is higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. We investigated the effect of season on child mortality by time periods, sex and age in rural Guinea-Bissau. Methods: Bandim health project follows children under-five in a health...

Seasonal Variations of Some Physico-Chemical Properties of River ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The influence of seasonal changes on the properties of water from Ethiope River at Abraka was investigated. Composite samples from six different sampling points were collected and assessed for both dry and wet seasons. The sampling points represent the villages within Abraka clan along the river. The seasonal ...

Short-term effects of ambient fine particulate matter pollution on hospital visits for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Beijing, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Yaohua; Xiang, Xiao; Juan, Juan; Song, Jing; Cao, Yaying; Huang, Chao; Li, Man; Hu, Yonghua

2018-02-27

Little is known about the effect of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China. The objective of this study was to explore the short-term effects of PM 2.5 on outpatient and inpatient visits for COPD in Beijing, China. A total of 3,503,313 outpatient visits and 126,982 inpatient visits for COPD between January 1, 2010, and June 30, 2012, were identified from the Beijing Medical Claim Data for Employees. A generalized additive Poisson model was applied to estimate the percentage change with 95% confidence interval (CI) in hospital visits for COPD in relation to an interquartile range (IQR) (90.8 μg/m 3 ) increase in PM 2.5 concentrations. Short-term exposure to PM 2.5 was significantly associated with increased use of COPD-related health services. There were clear exposure-response associations of PM 2.5 with COPD outpatient and inpatient visits. An IQR increase in the concurrent day PM 2.5 concentrations was significantly associated with a 2.38% (95% CI, 2.22%-2.53%) and 6.03% (95% CI, 5.19%-6.87%) increase in daily outpatient visits and inpatient visits, respectively. Elderly people were more sensitive to the adverse effects. The estimated risk was higher during the warm season compared to the cool season. Short-term exposure to PM 2.5 was associated with increased risk of hospital visits for COPD. Our findings contributed to the limited evidence concerning the effects of ambient PM 2.5 on COPD morbidity in developing countries.

Swarm Intelligence-Based Hybrid Models for Short-Term Power Load Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianzhou Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Swarm intelligence (SI is widely and successfully applied in the engineering field to solve practical optimization problems because various hybrid models, which are based on the SI algorithm and statistical models, are developed to further improve the predictive abilities. In this paper, hybrid intelligent forecasting models based on the cuckoo search (CS as well as the singular spectrum analysis (SSA, time series, and machine learning methods are proposed to conduct short-term power load prediction. The forecasting performance of the proposed models is augmented by a rolling multistep strategy over the prediction horizon. The test results are representative of the out-performance of the SSA and CS in tuning the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA and support vector regression (SVR in improving load forecasting, which indicates that both the SSA-based data denoising and SI-based intelligent optimization strategy can effectively improve the model’s predictive performance. Additionally, the proposed CS-SSA-SARIMA and CS-SSA-SVR models provide very impressive forecasting results, demonstrating their strong robustness and universal forecasting capacities in terms of short-term power load prediction 24 hours in advance.

Short-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenfeng; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Wang, Yubin Mao; Wang, Jiangbo; He, Dandan

2018-04-01

Short-term electricity demand forecasting is the basic work to ensure safe operation of the power system. In this paper, a practical economic electricity transmission model (EETM) is built. With the intelligent adaptive modeling capabilities of Prognoz Platform 7.2, the econometric model consists of three industrial added value and income levels is firstly built, the electricity demand transmission model is also built. By multiple regression, moving averages and seasonal decomposition, the problem of multiple correlations between variables is effectively overcome in EETM. The validity of EETM is proved by comparison with the actual value of Henan Province. Finally, EETM model is used to forecast the electricity consumption of the 1-4 quarter of 2018.

Seasonal temperature variability and emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases: a population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Shengzhi; Laden, Francine; Hart, Jaime E; Qiu, Hong; Wang, Yan; Wong, Chit Ming; Lee, Ruby Siu-Yin; Tian, Linwei

2018-04-05

Climate change increases global mean temperature and changes short-term (eg, diurnal) and long-term (eg, intraseasonal) temperature variability. Numerous studies have shown that mean temperature and short-term temperature variability are both associated with increased respiratory morbidity or mortality. However, data on the impact of long-term temperature variability are sparse. We aimed to assess the association of intraseasonal temperature variability with respiratory disease hospitalisations among elders. We ascertained the first occurrence of emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in a prospective Chinese elderly cohort of 66 820 older people (≥65 years) with 10-13 years of follow-up. We used an ordinary kriging method based on 22 weather monitoring stations in Hong Kong to spatially interpolate daily ambient temperature for each participant's residential address. Seasonal temperature variability was defined as the SD of daily mean summer (June-August) or winter (December-February) temperatures. We applied Cox proportional hazards regression with time-varying exposure of seasonal temperature variability to respiratory admissions. During the follow-up time, we ascertained 12 689 cases of incident respiratory diseases, of which 6672 were pneumonia and 3075 were COPD. The HRs per 1°C increase in wintertime temperature variability were 1.20 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.32), 1.15 (1.01 to 1.31) and 1.41 (1.15 to 1.71) for total respiratory diseases, pneumonia and COPD, respectively. The associations were not statistically significant for summertime temperature variability. Wintertime temperature variability was associated with higher risk of incident respiratory diseases. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Denitrification in agriculturally impacted streams: seasonal changes in structure and function of the bacterial community.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erin Manis

Full Text Available Denitrifiers remove fixed nitrogen from aquatic environments and hydrologic conditions are one potential driver of denitrification rate and denitrifier community composition. In this study, two agriculturally impacted streams in the Sugar Creek watershed in Indiana, USA with different hydrologic regimes were examined; one stream is seasonally ephemeral because of its source (tile drainage, whereas the other stream has permanent flow. Additionally, a simulated flooding experiment was performed on the riparian benches of the ephemeral stream during a dry period. Denitrification activity was assayed using the chloramphenicol amended acetylene block method and bacterial communities were examined based on quantitative PCR and terminal restriction length polymorphisms of the nitrous oxide reductase (nosZ and 16S rRNA genes. In the stream channel, hydrology had a substantial impact on denitrification rates, likely by significantly lowering water potential in sediments. Clear patterns in denitrification rates were observed among pre-drying, dry, and post-drying dates; however, a less clear scenario was apparent when analyzing bacterial community structure suggesting that denitrifier community structure and denitrification rate were not strongly coupled. This implies that the nature of the response to short-term hydrologic changes was physiological rather than increases in abundance of denitrifiers or changes in composition of the denitrifier community. Flooding of riparian bench soils had a short-term, transient effect on denitrification rate. Our results imply that brief flooding of riparian zones is unlikely to contribute substantially to removal of nitrate (NO3- and that seasonal drying of stream channels has a negative impact on NO3- removal, particularly because of the time lag required for denitrification to rebound. This time lag is presumably attributable to the time required for the denitrifiers to respond physiologically rather than a change

Understanding Short-Term Nonmigrating Tidal Variability in the Ionospheric Dynamo Region from SABER Using Information Theory and Bayesian Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Kumari, K.; Oberheide, J.

2017-12-01

Nonmigrating tidal diagnostics of SABER temperature observations in the ionospheric dynamo region reveal a large amount of variability on time-scales of a few days to weeks. In this paper, we discuss the physical reasons for the observed short-term tidal variability using a novel approach based on Information theory and Bayesian statistics. We diagnose short-term tidal variability as a function of season, QBO, ENSO, and solar cycle and other drivers using time dependent probability density functions, Shannon entropy and Kullback-Leibler divergence. The statistical significance of the approach and its predictive capability is exemplified using SABER tidal diagnostics with emphasis on the responses to the QBO and solar cycle. Implications for F-region plasma density will be discussed.

Carrier portfolio management for shipping seasonal products

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lu, T.; Fransoo, J.C.; Lee, C.-Y.

2017-01-01

Many seasonal products are transported via ocean carriers from origin to destination markets. The shipments arriving earlier in the market may sell at higher prices, but faster shipping services can be costly. In this paper, we study a newsvendor-type shipper who transports and sells seasonal

Fluctuations in daily energy intake do not cause physiological stress in a Neotropical primate living in a seasonal forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-Mota, Rodolfo; Righini, Nicoletta; Palme, Rupert

2016-12-01

Animals may face periods of nutritional stress due to short-term food shortage and/or low energy consumption associated with seasonal fluctuations in resource availability. We tested the hypothesis that periods of restricted macronutrient and energy intake result in energy deficits and physiological stress in wild black howler monkeys (Alouatta pigra) inhabiting seasonal tropical semi-deciduous forests. We conducted full-day follows of focal animals recording feeding rates, time spent feeding, and total amount of food ingested. We carried out nutritional analysis of foods collected from feeding trees and calculated the daily nutrient and energy intake of each focal individual. Fecal glucocorticoid metabolites (fGCM) of focal animals were used as an indicator of physiological stress. We found that fluctuations in daily energy intake across seasons did not have significant effects on fGCM of individuals. However, protein intake was negatively associated with fGCM, highlighting the interplay among macronutrients, metabolism, and the endocrine system. Fecal glucocorticoid metabolites were also positively related to fruit availability, but this relationship was most likely due to social stress associated with intergroup encounters and resource defense that occurred when preferred trees were fruiting. Behavioral strategies such as dietary shifts and nutrient mixing, and metabolic adaptations such as low energy expenditure allowed individuals to fulfill their minimum energy requirements even during periods of decreased resource availability and intake. The present study suggests that seasonal variations in food, macronutrient, and energy acquisition may have limited physiological costs for animals that exploit different types of plant resources such as howler monkeys.

How does harvest size vary with hunting season length?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunde, Peter; Asferg, Tommy

2014-01-01

season length (population management/ethical/other). In non-sedentary species, changes in bag size correlated positively with changes in season length (overall response: b = 0.54, 95%CI: 0.14-0.95): reducing the hunting season to 50% of its initial length would on average result in a 31% reduction (95...

Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Madlen Fischer

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany is investigated by fitting statistical models to monthly maxima of daily precipitation sums for 2,865 rain gauges. The basis is a non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV distribution variation of location and scale parameters. The negative log-likelihood serves as the forecast error for a cross validation to select adequate orders of the harmonic functions for each station. For nearly all gauges considered, the seasonal model is more appropriate to estimate return levels on a monthly scale than a stationary GEV used for individual months. The 100-year return-levels show the influence of cyclones in the western, and convective events in the eastern part of Germany. In addition to resolving the seasonality, we use a simulation study to show that annual return levels can be estimated more precisely from a monthly-resolved seasonal model than from a stationary model based on annual maxima.

Incorporating residual temperature and specific humidity in predicting weather-dependent warm-season electricity consumption

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Guan, Huade; Beecham, Simon; Xu, Hanqiu; Ingleton, Greg

2017-02-01

Climate warming and increasing variability challenges the electricity supply in warm seasons. A good quantitative representation of the relationship between warm-season electricity consumption and weather condition provides necessary information for long-term electricity planning and short-term electricity management. In this study, an extended version of cooling degree days (ECDD) is proposed for better characterisation of this relationship. The ECDD includes temperature, residual temperature and specific humidity effects. The residual temperature is introduced for the first time to reflect the building thermal inertia effect on electricity consumption. The study is based on the electricity consumption data of four multiple-street city blocks and three office buildings. It is found that the residual temperature effect is about 20% of the current-day temperature effect at the block scale, and increases with a large variation at the building scale. Investigation of this residual temperature effect provides insight to the influence of building designs and structures on electricity consumption. The specific humidity effect appears to be more important at the building scale than at the block scale. A building with high energy performance does not necessarily have low specific humidity dependence. The new ECDD better reflects the weather dependence of electricity consumption than the conventional CDD method.

Short-term effects of ambient air pollution on pediatric outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Yichang city, China.

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Liu, Yuewei; Xie, Shuguang; Yu, Qing; Huo, Xixiang; Ming, Xiaoyan; Wang, Jing; Zhou, Yun; Peng, Zhe; Zhang, Hai; Cui, Xiuqing; Xiang, Hua; Huang, Xiji; Zhou, Ting; Chen, Weihong; Shi, Tingming

2017-08-01

Previous studies have suggested that short-term exposure to ambient air pollution was associated with pediatric hospital admissions and emergency room visits for certain respiratory diseases; however, there is limited evidence on the association between short-term air pollution exposure and pediatric outpatient visits. Our aim was to quantitatively assess the short-term effects of ambient air pollution on pediatric outpatient visits for respiratory diseases. We conducted a time-series study in Yichang city, China between Jan 1, 2014 and Dec 31, 2015. Daily counts of pediatric respiratory outpatient visits were collected from 3 large hospitals, and then linked with air pollution data from 5 air quality monitoring stations by date. We used generalized additive Poisson models to conduct linear and nonlinear exposure-response analyses between air pollutant exposures and pediatric respiratory outpatient visits, adjusting for seasonality, day of week, public holiday, temperature, and relative humidity. Each interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM 2.5 (lag 0), PM 10 (lag 0), NO 2 (lag 0), CO (lag 0), and O 3 (lag 4) concentrations was significantly associated with a 1.91% (95% CI: 0.60%, 3.23%), 2.46% (1.09%, 3.85%), 1.88% (0.49%, 3.29%), 2.00% (0.43%, 3.59%), and 1.91% (0.45%, 3.39%) increase of pediatric respiratory outpatient visits, respectively. Similarly, the nonlinear exposure-response analyses showed monotonic increases of pediatric respiratory outpatient visits by increasing air pollutant exposures, though the associations for NO 2 and CO attenuated at higher concentrations. These associations were unlikely modified by season. We did not observe significant association for SO 2 exposure. Our results suggest that short-term exposures to PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO 2 , CO, and O 3 may account for increased risk of pediatric outpatient visits for respiratory diseases, and emphasize the needs for reduction of air pollutant exposures for children. Copyright © 2017

Seasonal Association of Immune Thrombocytopenia in Adults

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Anıl Tombak

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP is an autoimmune disorder. It is characterized by thrombocytopenia due to thrombocyte destruction mediated by autoantibodies; however, cytotoxic and defective regulatory T-lymphocytes play an important role in its pathogenesis. While childhood ITP is usually acute, self-limiting and generally seasonal in nature, ITP in adults is usually chronic; its relation with seasons has not been studied. Aims: We investigated whether months and/or seasons have triggering roles in adults with ITP. Study Design: Descriptive study. Methods: A retrospective case review of adult patients with primary ITP diagnosed at various University Hospitals in cities where Mediterranean climate is seen was performed. Demographic data, date of referral and treatments were recorded. Corticosteroid-resistant, chronic and refractory cases were determined. Relation between sex, corticosteroid-resistant, chronic and refractory ITP with the seasons was also investigated. Results: The study included 165 patients (124 female, mean age=42.8±16.6. Most cases of primary ITP were diagnosed in the spring (p=0.015. Rates of patients diagnosed according to the seasons were as follows: 35.8% in spring, 23% in summer, 20.6% in fall, and 20.6% in winter. With respect to months, the majority of cases occurred in May (18.2%. Time of diagnosis according to the seasons did not differ between genders (p=0.699. First-line treatment was corticosteroids in 97.3%, but 35% of the cases were corticosteroid-resistant. Steroid-resistant patients were mostly diagnosed in the spring (52.1% (p=0.001. ITP was chronic in 52.7% of the patients and they were also diagnosed mostly in the spring (62.7% (p=0.149. Conclusion: This is the first study showing seasonal association of ITP in adults and we have observed that ITP in adults is mostly diagnosed in the spring. The reason why more patients are diagnosed in the spring may be due to the existence of atmospheric pollens

A preliminary study of the effects of plastic film-mulched raised beds on soil temperature and crop performance of early-sown short-season spring maize (Zea mays L. in the North China Plain

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Jing Dang

2016-08-01

Full Text Available To identify a strategy for earlier sowing and harvesting of spring maize (Zea mays L. in an alternative maize–maize double cropping system, a 2-year field experiment was performed at Quzhou experimental station of China Agricultural University in 2014 and 2015. A short-season cultivar, Demeiya number 1 (KX7349, was used in the experiment. Soil temperature to 5 cm depth in the early crop growth stage, crop growth, crop yield, and water use of different treatments (plastic film-mulched raised bed (RF and flat field without plastic film mulching (CK in 2014; RF, plastic film-mulched flat field (FF, and CK in 2015 were measured or calculated and compared. Soil temperature in the film-mulched treatments was consistently higher than that in CK (1.6–3.5 °C in average during the early growth stage. Crops in plastic film-mulched treatments used 214 fewer growing-degree days (GDDs in 2014 and 262 fewer GDDs in 2015. In 2014, the RF treatment yielded 32.7% higher biomass than CK, although its 9.4% higher grain yield was not statistically significant. Also, RF used 17.9% less water and showed 33.1% higher water use efficiency (WUE than CK. In 2015, RF and FF showed 56.2% and 49.5% higher yield, 15.0% and 4.5% lower water use (ET, and 63.4% and 75.7% higher WUE, respectively, than CK. RF markedly increased soil temperature in the early crop season, accelerated crop growth, reduced ET, and greatly increased crop yield and WUE. Compared with FF, RF had no obvious effect on crop growth rate, although soil temperature during the period between sowing and stem elongation was slightly increased. However, RF resulted in lower ET and higher WUE than FF. Effects of RF on soil water dynamics as well as its cost-effectiveness remain topics for further study.

Seasonality affects dietary diversity of school-age children in northern Ghana.

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Abdul-Razak Abizari

Full Text Available Dietary diversity score (DDS is relatively easy to measure and is shown to be a very useful indicator of the probability of adequate micronutrient intake. Dietary diversity, however, is usually assessed during a single period and little is known about the effect of seasonality on it. This study investigates whether dietary diversity is influenced by seasonality.Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in two different seasons-dry season (October 2010 and rainy season (May 2011 among the same school-age children (SAC in two rural schools in northern Ghana. The study population consisted of 228 school-age children. A qualitative 24-hour dietary recall was conducted in both seasons. Based on 13 food groups, a score of 1 was given if a child consumed a food item belonging to a particular food group, else 0. Individual scores were aggregated into DDS for each child. Differences in mean DDS between seasons were compared using linear mixed model analysis.The dietary pattern of the SAC was commonly plant foods with poor consumption of animal source foods. The mean DDS was significantly higher (P < 0.001 in the rainy season (6.95 ± 0.55 compared to the dry season (6.44 ± 0.55 after adjusting for potential confounders such as age, sex, occupation (household head and mother and education of household head. The difference in mean DDS between dry and rainy seasons was mainly due to the difference in the consumption of Vitamin A-rich fruits and vegetables between the seasons. While vitamin A-rich fruits (64.0% vs. 0.9%; P < 0.0001 and vitamin A rich dark green leafy vegetables (52.6% vs. 23.3%, P < .0001 were consumed more during the rainy season than the dry season, more children consumed vitamin A-rich deep yellow, orange and red vegetables during the dry season than during the rainy season (73.7% vs. 36.4%, P <0.001.Seasonality has an effect on DDS and may affect the quality of dietary intake of SAC; in such a context, it would be useful to measure DDS

Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys Coordination

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-30

Chukchi sea seasonal sea ice zone (SIZ) utilizing US Coast Guard Arctic Domain Awareness ( ADA ) flights of opportunity in the summers of 2012- 2014. In...measurements across the Beaufort-Chukchi sea seasonal sea ice zone (SIZ) utilizing US Coast Guard Arctic Domain Awareness ( ADA ) flights of...such, it contains the full range of positions of the marginal ice zone (MIZ) where sea ice interacts with open water. In addition to SIZRS

Measuring the potential utility of seasonal climate predictions

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Tippett, Michael K.; Kleeman, Richard; Tang, Youmin

2004-11-01

Variation of sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal-to-interannual time-scales leads to changes in seasonal weather statistics and seasonal climate anomalies. Relative entropy, an information theory measure of utility, is used to quantify the impact of SST variations on seasonal precipitation compared to natural variability. An ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations is used to estimate this quantity in three regions where tropical SST has a large impact on precipitation: South Florida, the Nordeste of Brazil and Kenya. We find the yearly variation of relative entropy is strongly correlated with shifts in ensemble mean precipitation and weakly correlated with ensemble variance. Relative entropy is also found to be related to measures of the ability of the GCM to reproduce observations.

Short (

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Telleman, Gerdien; den Hartog, Laurens

2013-01-01

Aim: This systematic review assessed the implant survival rate of short (<10 mm) dental implants installed in partially edentulous patients. A case report of a short implant in the posterior region have been added. Materials and methods: A search was conducted in the electronic databases of MEDLINE

Structuring spot, short and long term gas contracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gretener, N.M.

1996-01-01

A review of the core clauses of the modern natural gas purchase and sales contracts, was presented. There exists a wide variety of terms which can be used by a seller and a buyer to customize such a contract to suit particular circumstances. On the basis of length of term, gas contracts may classified as spot contracts having a term of 30 days or less, short term contracts having a term of 30 days to one to two years, and long term contracts having terms greater than two years. The three key elements which are applicable to all gas sales contracts are the contract price, the seller's obligation to deliver, and the buyer's obligation to accept. Other provisions that may be included in any gas sales contract in addition to the basic three were reviewed, including market pricing, load factor incentive pricing, seasonal pricing, pipeline demand charges, market shares, and the seller's right to decontract

Seasonal variations in health-related human physical activity.

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Reilly, Thomas; Peiser, Benny

2006-01-01

There are profound fluctuations in climate that occur within the annual cycle of seasonal changes. The severity of these changes depends on latitude of location and prevailing topography. Living creatures have evolved means of coping with seasonal extremes. Endogenous circannual cycles, at least in humans, appear to have been masked by mechanisms employed to cope with environmental changes. Physical activity levels tend to be lower in winter than in summer, mediating effects on health-related fitness. In athletes, seasonal changes are dictated by requirements of the annual programme of competitive engagements rather than an inherent circannual rhythm. Injury rates are influenced by seasonal environmental factors, notably in field sports. Season of birth has been related to susceptibility to selected morbidities, including mental ill-health. In age-restricted sports, there is a date-of-birth bias favouring those individuals born early in the competitive year. Trainers and selectors should acknowledge this trend if they are to avoid omitting gifted individuals, born later in the year, from talent development programmes.

46 CFR 42.30-10 - Southern Winter Seasonal Zone.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... Island; thence the rhumb line to Black Rock Point on Stewart Island; thence the rhumb line to the point... BY SEA Zones, Areas, and Seasonal Periods § 42.30-10 Southern Winter Seasonal Zone. (a) The northern boundary of the Southern Winter Seasonal Zone is the rhumb line from the east coast of the American...

Rainforest-initiated wet season onset over the southern Amazon.

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Wright, Jonathon S; Fu, Rong; Worden, John R; Chakraborty, Sudip; Clinton, Nicholas E; Risi, Camille; Sun, Ying; Yin, Lei

2017-08-08

Although it is well established that transpiration contributes much of the water for rainfall over Amazonia, it remains unclear whether transpiration helps to drive or merely responds to the seasonal cycle of rainfall. Here, we use multiple independent satellite datasets to show that rainforest transpiration enables an increase of shallow convection that moistens and destabilizes the atmosphere during the initial stages of the dry-to-wet season transition. This shallow convection moisture pump (SCMP) preconditions the atmosphere at the regional scale for a rapid increase in rain-bearing deep convection, which in turn drives moisture convergence and wet season onset 2-3 mo before the arrival of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Aerosols produced by late dry season biomass burning may alter the efficiency of the SCMP. Our results highlight the mechanisms by which interactions among land surface processes, atmospheric convection, and biomass burning may alter the timing of wet season onset and provide a mechanistic framework for understanding how deforestation extends the dry season and enhances regional vulnerability to drought.

Canary tomato export prices: comparison and relationships between daily seasonal patterns

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G. Martin-Rodriguez

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Statistical procedures are proposed to describe, compare and forecast the behaviour of seasonal variations in two daily price series of Canary tomato exported to German and British markets, respectively, over the last decade. These seasonal patterns are pseudo-periodic as the length of the seasonal period changes frequently in dependence of market conditions. Seasonal effect at a day in the harvesting period is defined as a spline function of the proportion of the length of such a period elapsed up to such a day. Then, seasonal patterns for the two series are compared in terms of the area between the corresponding spline functions. The ability of these models to capture the dynamic process of change in the seasonal pattern is useful to forecasting purpose. Furthermore, an analytical tool is also proposed to obtain forecasts of the seasonal pattern in one of these two series from the forecasts of the seasonal pattern in the other one. These procedures are useful for farmers in developing strategies related to the seasonal distribution of tomato production exported to each market.

Fire decreases arthropod abundance but increases diversity: Early and late season prescribed fire effects in a Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

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Ferrenberg, Scott; Schwilk, Dylan W.; Knapp, Eric E.; Groth, Eric; Keeley, Jon E.

2006-01-01

Prior to fire suppression in the 20th century, the mixed-conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S.A., historically burned in frequent fires that typically occurred during the late summer and early fall. Fire managers have been attempting to restore natural ecosystem processes through prescription burning, and have often favored burning during the fall in order to mimic historical fire regimes. Increasingly, however, prescription burning is also being done during the late spring and early summer in order to expand the window of opportunity for needed fuel reduction burning. The effect of prescribed fires outside of the historical fire season on forest arthropods is not known. The objective of this study was to compare the short-term effects of prescribed fires ignited in the early and late fire season on forest floor arthropods. Arthropod abundance and diversity were assessed using pitfall trapping in replicated burn units in Sequoia National Park, California. Overall, abundance of arthropods was lower in the burn treatments than in the unburned control. However, diversity tended to be greater in the burn treatments. Fire also altered the relative abundances of arthropod feeding guilds. No significant differences in arthropod community structure were found between early and late season burn treatments. Instead, changes in the arthropod community appeared to be driven largely by changes in fuel loading, vegetation, and habitat heterogeneity, all of which differed more between the burned and unburned treatments than between early and late season burn treatments.

Response of Amazon Fires to the 2015/2016 El Niño and Evaluation of a Seasonal Fire Season Severity Forecast

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Randerson, J. T.

2016-12-01

Recent work has established that year-to-year variability in drought and fire within the Amazon responds to a dual forcing from ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic. Teleconnections between the Pacific and the Amazon are strongest between October and March, when El Niño contributes to below-average precipitation during the wet season. A reduced build-up of soil moisture during the wet season, in turn, may limit water availability and transpiration in tropical forests during the following dry season, lowering surface humidity, drying fuels, and allowing fires to spread more easily through the understory. The delayed influence of soil moisture through this land - atmosphere coupling provides a means to predict fire season severity 3-6 months before the onset of the dry season. With the aim of creating new opportunities for forest conservation, we have developed an experimental seasonal fire forecasting system for the Amazon. The 2016 fire season severity forecast, released in June by UCI and NASA, predicts unusually high risk across eastern Peru, northern Bolivia, and Brazil. Several surface and satellite data streams confirm that El Niño teleconnections had a significant impact on wet season hydrology within the Amazon. Rainfall observations from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre provided evidence that cumulative precipitation deficits during August-April were 1 to 2 standard deviations below the long-term mean for most of the basin. These observations were corroborated by strong negative terrestrial water storage anomalies measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, and by fluorescence and vegetation index observations from other sensors that indicated elevated canopy stress. By August 3rd, satellite observations showed above average fire activity in most, but not all, forecast regions. Using additional satellite observations that become available later this year, we plan to describe the full spatial and