WorldWideScience

Sample records for shoreline change rates

  1. The Influence of Shoreline Curvature on Rates of Shoreline Change on Sandy Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, A. B.; Lauzon, R.; Cheng, S.; Liu, J.; Lazarus, E.

    2017-12-01

    The sandy, low-lying barrier islands which characterize much of the US East and Gulf coasts are popular spots to live and vacation, and are often heavily developed. However, sandy shorelines and barriers are also naturally mobile landforms, which are vulnerable to sea level rise and storms and can experience high rates of shoreline change. Many previous studies have attempted to understand and quantify the factors that contribute to those rates of shoreline change, such as grain size, underlying geology, sea level rise, and anthropogenic modification. Shoreline curvature has not been considered in such analyses, but previous research has demonstrated that subtle coastline curvature (and therefore alongshore variation in relative offshore wave angle) can result in gradients in net alongshore transport that cause significant shoreline erosion or accretion. Here we present the results of a spatially extensive analysis of the correlation between shoreline curvature and shoreline change rates for the sandy shorelines of the US East and Gulf coasts. We find that, for wave-dominated sandy coasts where nourishment and shoreline stabilization do not dominate the shoreline change signal (such as parts of Texas, North Carolina, and Florida), there is a significant negative correlation between shoreline curvature and shoreline change rates over 1 - 5 km and decadal to centurial space and time scales. This correlation indicates that a portion of the coastal erosion (and accretion) observed in these areas can be explained by the smoothing of subtle coastline curvature by gradients in alongshore transport, and suggests that shoreline curvature should be included in future attempts to understand historical and future rates of shoreline change. Shoreline stabilization, especially through beach nourishment, complicates the relationship between curvature and shoreline change. Beach construction during nourishment creates a seaward convex curvature in the part of the shoreline moves

  2. Multidecadal shoreline changes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kabuth, Alina Kristin; Kroon, Aart; Pedersen, Jørn Bjarke Torp

    2014-01-01

    Multidecadal shoreline changes along ca. 7000 km coastline around Denmark were computed for the time interval between 1862 AD and 2005 AD and were connected with a geomorphological coastal classification. The shoreline data set was based on shoreline positions from historical and modern topograph...... shoreline changes around Denmark, the mapping can contribute to enhanced adaptation and mitigation strategies in response to increased risks of erosion and flooding under a changing climate....

  3. Massachusetts shoreline change project: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the 2013 update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Theresa L.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2013-01-01

    Identifying the rates and trends associated with the position of the shoreline through time presents vital information on potential impacts these changes may have on coastal populations and infrastructure, and supports informed coastal management decisions. This report publishes the historical shoreline data used to assess the scale and timing of erosion and accretion along the Massachusetts coast from New Hampshire to Rhode Island including all of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket and the Elizabeth Islands. This data is an update to the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management Shoreline Change Project. Shoreline positions from the past 164 years (1845 to 2009) were used to compute the shoreline change rates. These data include a combined length of 1,804 kilometers of new shoreline data derived from color orthophoto imagery collected in 2008 and 2009, and topographic lidar collected in 2007. These new shorelines have been added to previously published historic shoreline data from the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management and the U.S. Geological Survey. A detailed report containing a discussion of the shoreline change data presented here and a summary of the resulting rates is available and cited at the end of the Introduction section of this report.

  4. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change:A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the Sandy Shorelines of the California Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Reid, David

    2006-01-01

    Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the sandy shoreline along the California open coast. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates of shorelines and shoreline change rates can be made at a National Scale. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the California coast is one in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast Atlantic Coast (Morton et al., 2004; Morton et al., 2005) and will eventually cover Washington, Oregon, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are determined by comparing the positions of three historical shorelines digitized from maps, with a modern shoreline derived from LIDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time-periods: 1850s-1880s, 1920s-1930s, and late 1940s-1970s. The most recent shoreline is from data collected between 1997 and 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change of the

  5. National assessment of shoreline change: historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggerio, Peter; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Reid, David; Allan, Jonathan; Kaminsky, George

    2013-01-01

    Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to increase and infrastructure is threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along the open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of the analysis of shoreline change in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the PNW coasts of Oregon and Washington is the seventh in a series of regionally focused reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (Morton and others, 2004), the southeastern Atlantic (Morton and Miller, 2005), the sandy shorelines (Hapke and others, 2006) and coastal cliffs (Hapke and Reid, 2007) of California, the New England and mid-Atlantic coasts (Hapke and others, 2011), and parts of the Hawaii coast (Fletcher and others, 2012). Like the earlier reports in this series, this report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results of the analysis, provides explanations regarding long- and short-term trends and rates of shoreline change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. This report differs from the early USGS reports in the series in that those

  6. National assessment of shoreline change—Summary statistics for updated vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast Atlantic coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2017-07-18

    Long-term rates of shoreline change for the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast Atlantic regions of the United States have been updated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Assessment of Shoreline Change project. Additional shoreline position data were used to compute rates where the previous rate-of-change assessment only included four shoreline positions at a given location. The long-term shoreline change rates also incorporate the proxy-datum bias correction to account for the unidirectional onshore bias of the proxy-based high water line shorelines relative to the datum-based mean high water shorelines. The calculation of uncertainty associated with the long-term average rates has also been updated to match refined methods used in other study regions of the National Assessment project. The average rates reported here have a reduced amount of uncertainty relative to those presented in the previous assessments for these two regions.

  7. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the U.S. southeast Atlantic coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tara L.; Morton, Robert A.; Sallenger, Asbury H.

    2006-01-01

    The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina). These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates of shorelines and shoreline change rates can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast is the second in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico, and will eventually include the Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are based on merging three historical shorelines with a modern shoreline derived from lidar (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s. The most recent shoreline is derived from data collected over the period of 1997-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are simple end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1401/ to get additional

  8. Regional shoreline change and coastal erosion hazards in Arctic Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Erikson, Li H.; Harden, E. Lynne; Wallendorf, Louise

    2011-01-01

    Historical shoreline positions along the mainland Beaufort Sea coast of Alaska were digitized and analyzed to determine the long-term rate of change. Average shoreline change rates and ranges from 1947 to the mid-2000s were determined every 50 meters between Barrow and Demarcation Point, at the U.S.-Canadian border. Results show that shoreline change rates are highly variable along the coast, with an average regional shoreline change rate of-2.0 m/yr and localized rates of up to -19 m/yr. The highest erosion rates were observed at headlands, points, and associated with breached thermokarst lakes. Areas of accretion were limited, and generally associated with spit extension and minor beach accretion. In general, erosion rates increase from east to west, with overall higher rates east of Harrison Bay.

  9. Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2016-06-01

    Jun 1, 2016 ... as backdrop in GIS environment. Positional error of ... integrated dataset obviously bore the cumulative effect of the input datasets. ... change. The shoreline, which is the interface between land ... modelling, which enables future shoreline change trend to ..... as gaps due to cloud cover and limitation of the.

  10. Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ghana Mining Journal ... Data quality may be expressed in terms of several indicators such as attributes, temporal or positional accuracies. ... It is concluded that for the purpose of shoreline change analysis, such as shoreline change trends, large scale data sources should be used where possible for accurate ...

  11. Massachusetts Shoreline Change Mapping and Analysis Project, 2013 Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Smith, Theresa L.; Knisel, Julia M.; Sampson, Daniel W.

    2013-01-01

    Information on rates and trends of shoreline change can be used to improve the understanding of the underlying causes and potential effects of coastal erosion on coastal populations and infrastructure and can support informed coastal management decisions. In this report, we summarize the changes in the historical positions of the shoreline of the Massachusetts coast for the 165 years from 1844 through 2009. The study area includes the Massachusetts coastal region from Salisbury to Westport, including Cape Cod, as well as Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and the Elizabeth Islands. New statewide shoreline data were developed for approximately 1,804 kilometers (1,121 miles) of shoreline using color aerial orthoimagery from 2008 and 2009 and topographic lidar from 2007. The shoreline data were integrated with existing historical shoreline data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM) to compute long- (about 150 years) and short-term (about 30 years) rates of shoreline change. A linear regression method was used to calculate long- and short-term rates of shoreline change at 26,510 transects along the Massachusetts coast. In locations where shoreline data were insufficient to use the linear regression method, short-term rates were calculated using an end-point method. Long-term rates of shoreline change are calculated with (LTw) and without (LTwo) shorelines from the 1970s and 1994 to examine the effect of removing these data on measured rates of change. Regionally averaged rates are used to assess the general characteristics of the two-rate computations, and we find that (1) the rates of change for both LTw and LTwo are essentially the same; (2) including more data slightly reduces the uncertainty of the rate, which is expected as the number of shorelines increases; and (3) the data for the shorelines from the 1970s and 1994 are not outliers with respect to the long-term trend. These findings are true for regional

  12. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tara L.; Morton, Robert A.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Moore, Laura J.

    2004-01-01

    Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico is the first in a series that will eventually include the Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are based on merging three historical shorelines with a modern shoreline derived from lidar (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s. The most recent shoreline is derived from data collected over the period of 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are simple end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change in the Gulf of Mexico, National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Part 1, Historical Shoreline Changes and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (USGS Open File

  13. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) Version 4.0 - An ArcGIS extension for calculating shoreline change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Zichichi, Jessica L.; Ergul, Ayhan

    2009-01-01

    The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 4.0 is a software extension to ESRI ArcGIS v.9.2 and above that enables a user to calculate shoreline rate-of-change statistics from multiple historic shoreline positions. A user-friendly interface of simple buttons and menus guides the user through the major steps of shoreline change analysis. Components of the extension and user guide include (1) instruction on the proper way to define a reference baseline for measurements, (2) automated and manual generation of measurement transects and metadata based on user-specified parameters, and (3) output of calculated rates of shoreline change and other statistical information. DSAS computes shoreline rates of change using four different methods: (1) endpoint rate, (2) simple linear regression, (3) weighted linear regression, and (4) least median of squares. The standard error, correlation coefficient, and confidence interval are also computed for the simple and weighted linear-regression methods. The results of all rate calculations are output to a table that can be linked to the transect file by a common attribute field. DSAS is intended to facilitate the shoreline change-calculation process and to provide rate-of-change information and the statistical data necessary to establish the reliability of the calculated results. The software is also suitable for any generic application that calculates positional change over time, such as assessing rates of change of glacier limits in sequential aerial photos, river edge boundaries, land-cover changes, and so on.

  14. USGS science for the Nation's changing coasts; shoreline change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Hapke, Cheryl J.

    2011-01-01

    The coastline of the United States features some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations in the world and is the site of intense residential, commercial, and industrial development. The coastal zone also has extensive and pristine natural areas, with diverse ecosystems providing essential habitat and resources that support wildlife, fish, and human use. Coastal erosion is a widespread process along most open-ocean shores of the United States that affects both developed and natural coastlines. As the coast changes, there are a wide range of ways that change can affect coastal communities, habitats, and the physical characteristics of the coast?including beach erosion, shoreline retreat, land loss, and damage to infrastructure. Global climate change will likely increase the rate of coastal change. A recent study of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, for example, found that it is virtually certain that sandy beaches will erode faster in the future as sea level rises because of climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for conducting research on coastal change hazards, understanding the processes that cause coastal change, and developing models to predict future change. To understand and adapt to shoreline change, accurate information regarding the past and present configurations of the shoreline is essential. A comprehensive, nationally consistent analysis of shoreline movement is needed. To meet this national need, the USGS is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean coasts of the conterminous United States and parts of Alaska and Hawaii, as well as the coasts of the Great Lakes.

  15. National assessment of shoreline change—Summary statistics for updated vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian Border to Icy Cape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2017-09-25

    Long-term rates of shoreline change for the north coast of Alaska, from the U.S.-Canadian border to the Icy Cape region of northern Alaska, have been updated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Short-term shoreline change rates are reported for the first time. Additional shoreline position data were used to compute rates where the previous rate-of-change assessment only included two shoreline positions at a given location. The calculation of uncertainty associated with the long-term average rates has also been updated to match refined methods used in other study regions of the National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. The average rates of this report have a reduced amount of uncertainty compared to those presented in the first assessment for this region.

  16. Drivers of coastal shoreline change: case study of hon dat coast, Kien Giang, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hai-Hoa; McAlpine, Clive; Pullar, David; Leisz, Stephen Joseph; Galina, Gramotnev

    2015-05-01

    Coastal shorelines are naturally dynamic, shifting in response to coastal geomorphological processes. Globally, land use change associated with coastal urban development and growing human population pressures is accelerating coastal shoreline change. In southern Vietnam, coastal erosion currently is posing considerable risks to shoreline land use and coastal inhabitants. The aim of this paper is to quantify historical shoreline changes along the Hon Dat coast between 1995 and 2009, and to document the relationships between coastal mangrove composition, width and density, and rates of shoreline change. The generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the major biophysical and land-use factors influencing shoreline change rates. Most significant drivers of the rates of change are cutting of mangroves, the dominant mangrove genus, changes in adjacent shoreline land use, changes of shoreline land cover, and width of fringing mangroves. We suggest that a possible and inexpensive strategy for robust mangrove shoreline defense is direct mangrove planting to promote mangrove density with the presence of breakwater structures. In the shorter term, construction of coastal barriers such as fence-structured melaleuca poles in combination with mangrove restoration schemes could help retain coastal sediments and increase the elevation of the accretion zone, thereby helping to stabilize eroding fringe shorelines. It also is recommended that implementation of a system of payments for mangrove ecosystem services and the stronger regulation of mangrove cutting and unsustainable land-use change to strengthen the effectiveness of mangrove conservation programs and coastal land-use management.

  17. Drivers of Coastal Shoreline Change: Case Study of Hon Dat Coast, Kien Giang, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hai-Hoa; McAlpine, Clive; Pullar, David; Leisz, Stephen Joseph; Galina, Gramotnev

    2015-05-01

    Coastal shorelines are naturally dynamic, shifting in response to coastal geomorphological processes. Globally, land use change associated with coastal urban development and growing human population pressures is accelerating coastal shoreline change. In southern Vietnam, coastal erosion currently is posing considerable risks to shoreline land use and coastal inhabitants. The aim of this paper is to quantify historical shoreline changes along the Hon Dat coast between 1995 and 2009, and to document the relationships between coastal mangrove composition, width and density, and rates of shoreline change. The generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the major biophysical and land-use factors influencing shoreline change rates. Most significant drivers of the rates of change are cutting of mangroves, the dominant mangrove genus, changes in adjacent shoreline land use, changes of shoreline land cover, and width of fringing mangroves. We suggest that a possible and inexpensive strategy for robust mangrove shoreline defense is direct mangrove planting to promote mangrove density with the presence of breakwater structures. In the shorter term, construction of coastal barriers such as fence-structured melaleuca poles in combination with mangrove restoration schemes could help retain coastal sediments and increase the elevation of the accretion zone, thereby helping to stabilize eroding fringe shorelines. It also is recommended that implementation of a system of payments for mangrove ecosystem services and the stronger regulation of mangrove cutting and unsustainable land-use change to strengthen the effectiveness of mangrove conservation programs and coastal land-use management.

  18. Monitoring Shoreline Change using Remote Sensing and GIS: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Key words: remote sensing, geographic information system (GIS), aerial photographs, shoreline change. Data from aerial photographs taken in 1981, 1992 and 2002 of the Kunduchi shoreline off the Dar es Salaam coast were integrated in a geographic information system (GIS) to determine shoreline change in that locality.

  19. National assessment of shoreline change: Historical shoreline change in the Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Charles H.; Romine, Bradley M.; Genz, Ayesha S.; Barbee, Matthew M.; Dyer, Matthew; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Lim, S. Chyn; Vitousek, Sean; Bochicchio, Christopher; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2012-01-01

    Sandy beaches of the United States are some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations. Coastal property constitutes some of the most valuable real estate in the country. Beaches are an ephemeral environment between water and land with unique and fragile natural ecosystems that have evolved in equilibrium with the ever-changing winds, waves, and water levels. Beachfront lands are the site of intense residential and commercial development even though they are highly vulnerable to several natural hazards, including marine inundation, flooding and drainage problems, effects of storms, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. Because the U.S. population continues to shift toward the coast where valuable coastal property is vulnerable to erosion, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a national assessment of coastal change. One aspect of this effort, the National Assessment of Shoreline Change, uses shoreline position as a proxy for coastal change because shoreline position is one of the most commonly monitored indicators of environmental change (for example, Fletcher, 1992; Dolan and others, 1991; Douglas and others, 1998; Galgano and others, 1998). Additionally, the National Research Council (1990) recommended the use of historical shoreline analysis in the absence of a widely accepted model of shoreline change.

  20. National Assessment of Shoreline Change; historical shoreline change along the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; List, Jeffrey H.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2011-01-01

    Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of this study, the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts is the fifth in a series of reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the Gulf of Mexico, the Southeast Atlantic, and, for California, the sandy shoreline and the coastal cliffs. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. Because of the geomorphology of the New England and Mid-Atlantic (rocky coastlines, large embayments and beaches) as well as data gaps in some areas, this report presents beach erosion rates for 78 percent of the 1,360 kilometers of the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The New England and Mid-Atlantic shores were subdivided into a total of 10 analysis regions for the purpose of reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long

  1. Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Philip T.; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    1997-04-01

    If global warming occurs, it could significantly affect water resource distribution and availability. Yet it is unclear whether the prospect of such change is relevant to water resources management decisions being made today. We model a shoreline protection decision problem with a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) to determine whether consideration of the possibility of climate change would alter the decision. Three questions are addressed with the SDP: (l) How important is climate change compared to other uncertainties?, (2) What is the economic loss if climate change uncertainty is ignored?, and (3) How does belief in climate change affect the timing of the decision? In the case study, sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in real discount rates has a stronger effect upon the decision than belief in climate change. Nevertheless, a strong belief in climate change makes the shoreline protection project less attractive and often alters the decision to build it.

  2. Shoreline change due to coastal structures of power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, K. S.; Lee, T. S.; Kim, Y. I.

    2001-01-01

    Characteristics of shoreline change at the coastal area near power plant were analyzed. For a nuclear power plant located in the east coast of Korean peninsula, remote-sensing data, i.e.airborne images and satellite images are acquired and shoreline data were extracted. Recession and davance of shoreline due to coastal structures of powder plant and land reclamation was showed. 1-line numerical shoreline change model was established for simulating the response of shoreline to construction of coastal structures. The model uses curvilinear coordinates that follow the shoreline and is capable of handling the formation of tombolos as well as the growth of salients in the vicinity of coastal structures. The model predicted significant erosion of beach in case breakwaters were extended. Offshore breakwaters were suggested as a countermeasure to shoreline change

  3. Quantification of shoreline change along Hatteras Island, North Carolina: Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, 1978-2002, and associated vector shoreline data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Henderson, Rachel E.

    2015-01-01

    Shoreline change spanning twenty-four years was assessed along the coastline of Cape Hatteras National Seashore, at Hatteras Island, North Carolina. The shorelines used in the analysis were generated from georeferenced historical aerial imagery and are used to develop shoreline change rates for Hatteras Island, from Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras. A total of 14 dates of aerial photographs ranging from 1978 through 2002 were obtained from the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Field Research Facility in Duck, North Carolina, and scanned to generate digital imagery. The digital imagery was georeferenced and high water line shorelines (interpreted from the wet/dry line) were digitized from each date to produce a time series of shorelines for the study area. Rates of shoreline change were calculated for three periods: the full span of the time series, 1978 through 2002, and two approximately decadal subsets, 1978–89 and 1989–2002.

  4. Shoreline change assessment using multi-temporal satellite images: a case study of Lake Sapanca, NW Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duru, Umit

    2017-08-01

    The research summarized here determines historical shoreline changes along Lake Sapanca by using Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Six multi-temporal satellite images of Landsat Multispectral Scanner (L1-5 MMS), Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (L7 ETM+), and Operational Land Imager Sensors (L8 OLI), covering the period between 17 June 1975 and 15 July 2016, were used to monitor shoreline positions and estimate change rates along the coastal zone. After pre-possessing routines, the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), and supervised classification techniques were utilized to extract six different shorelines. Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), a toolbox that enables transect-based computations of shoreline displacement, was used to compute historical shoreline change rates. The average rate of shoreline change for the entire cost was 2.7 m/year of progradation with an uncertainty of 0.2 m/year. While the great part of the lake shoreline remained stable, the study concluded that the easterly and westerly coasts and deltaic coasts are more vulnerable to shoreline displacements over the last four decades. The study also reveals that anthropogenic activities, more specifically over extraction of freshwater from the lake, cyclic variation in rainfall, and deposition of sediment transported by the surrounding creeks dominantly control spatiotemporal shoreline changes in the region. Monitoring shoreline changes using multi-temporal satellite images is a significant component for the coastal decision-making and management.

  5. National Assessment Of Shoreline Change: Part 2, Historical Shoreline Changes And Associated Coastal Land Loss Along The U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.; Miller, Tara L.

    2005-01-01

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This report on states comprising the Southeast Atlantic Coast (east Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina) represents the second in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and will eventually include the Northeast Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. The report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding the historical and present trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using four shorelines (1800s to lidar shoreline), whereas short-term rates of change are calculated for the most recent period (1970s to lidar shoreline). The historical rates of change presented in

  6. National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Part 1, Historical Shoreline Changes and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.; Miller, Tara L.; Moore, Laura J.

    2004-01-01

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This report on states bordering the Gulf of Mexico (Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas) represents the first in a series that will eventually include the Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. The report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding the historical and present trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all four shorelines (1800s to lidar shoreline), whereas short-term rates of change are calculated for the most recent period (1970s to lidar shoreline). The historical rates of change presented in this report represent past conditions and therefore are not

  7. Multidecadal shoreline changes of atoll islands in the Marshall Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, M.

    2012-12-01

    Atoll islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of continued sea level rise. One of the most commonly predicted outcomes of continued sea level rise is widespread and chronic shoreline erosion. Despite the widespread implications of predicted erosion, the decadal scale changes of atoll island shorelines are poorly resolved. The Marshall Islands is one of only four countries where the majority of inhabited land is comprised of reef and atoll islands. Consisting of 29 atolls and 5 mid-ocean reef islands, the Marshall Islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. A detailed analysis of shoreline change on over 300 islands on 10 atolls was undertaken using historic aerial photos (1945-1978) and modern high resolution satellite imagery (2004-2012). Results highlight the complex and dynamic nature of atoll islands, with significant shifts in shoreline position observed over the period of analysis. Results suggest shoreline accretion is the dominant mode of change on the islands studied, often associated with a net increase in vegetated island area. However, considerable inter- and intra-atoll variability exists with regards to shoreline stability. Findings are discussed with respect to island morphodynamics and potential hazard mitigation and planning responses within atoll settings.

  8. Performance of a process-based hydrodynamic model in predicting shoreline change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, I.; Warner, J. C.; List, J. H.

    2012-12-01

    Shoreline change is controlled by a complex combination of processes that include waves, currents, sediment characteristics and availability, geologic framework, human interventions, and sea level rise. A comprehensive data set of shoreline position (14 shorelines between 1978-2002) along the continuous and relatively non-interrupted North Carolina Coast from Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras (65 km) reveals a spatial pattern of alternating erosion and accretion, with an erosional average shoreline change rate of -1.6 m/yr and up to -8 m/yr in some locations. This data set gives a unique opportunity to study long-term shoreline change in an area hit by frequent storm events while relatively uninfluenced by human interventions and the effects of tidal inlets. Accurate predictions of long-term shoreline change may require a model that accurately resolves surf zone processes and sediment transport patterns. Conventional methods for predicting shoreline change such as one-line models and regression of shoreline positions have been designed for computational efficiency. These methods, however, not only have several underlying restrictions (validity for small angle of wave approach, assuming bottom contours and shoreline to be parallel, depth of closure, etc.) but also their empirical estimates of sediment transport rates in the surf zone have been shown to vary greatly from the calculations of process-based hydrodynamic models. We focus on hind-casting long-term shoreline change using components of the process-based, three-dimensional coupled-ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport modeling system (COAWST). COAWST is forced with historical predictions of atmospheric and oceanographic data from public-domain global models. Through a method of coupled concurrent grid-refinement approach in COAWST, the finest grid with resolution of O(10 m) that covers the surf zone along the section of interest is forced at its spatial boundaries with waves and currents computed on the grids

  9. Emerging and Submerging Shorelines: Impacts of Physical Change on Bioband Length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruger, L. E.; Johnson, A. C.; Gregovich, D.; Buma, B.; Noel, J.

    2017-12-01

    We approximated shifts in coastal benthic species for shoreline length units undergoing both sea level rise and relative sea level lowering (often post-glacial, termed isostatic rebound) where subsistence-based, southeast Alaska Natives reside. From six community centers, we examined 30 km radii shoreline reaches by merging relevant portions of the NOAA ShoreZone database with near shore bathymetry and measures of mean global sea level rise with local global positioning system information (GIS) of tectonic shift and isostatic rebound. For our analysis, we estimated change for 9,868 assessed shoreline length units having uniform substrate and biologic type over a 100-yr time span (2008-2108) using geometric analysis of shoreline attributes. For each shoreline length unit we assessed relationships among substrate, slope, exposure, and presence of five benthic species including eel grass (Zostera marina), blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), butter clams (Saxidomus gigantean), bull kelp (Nereocytis leutkeana), and foliose red algae including ribbon kelp (Palmaria sp.). Our research indicates that both emergence, up to 1.8 m, and submergence, up 0.2 m, of the land will result in disportionately larger shoreline length segment alterations for habitats in protected low-slope gradient bays and estuaries (dominated by eelgrass and butter clam habitats) with less change for rocky steep-gradient exposed penninsulas (red algae and canopy kelp). This trend, holding true regardless of isostatic rebound, tectonic shift or sea level rise rate, highlights the importance of initial geomorphology-based assessments serving to improve bio-physical, chemical, and socially-related coastal research. Where shorelines are emerging 30% decreases in estuary lengths are predicted, but where shorelines are submerging up to 3% increases in estuaries are expected. Our research results are consistent with anthropology studies assessing past coastal change. Coastal change, influencing subsistance foods

  10. 55-year (1960-2015) spatiotemporal shoreline change analysis using historical DISP and Landsat time series data in Shanghai

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Gang; Mi, Huan; Wang, Weian; Tong, Xiaohua; Li, Zhongbin; Li, Tan; Liu, Shijie; Hong, Yang

    2018-06-01

    Shoreline change has been an increasing concern for low-lying and vulnerable coastal zones worldwide, especially in estuarine delta regions, which generally have significant economic development, large human settlements and infrastructures. Thus, long time-series shoreline change data are useful for understanding how shorelines respond to natural and anthropogenic activities, as well as for providing greater insights into coastal protection and sustainable development in the future. For the first time, this study analyzes 55 years of spatiotemporal shoreline changes in Shanghai, China, by integrating the historical Declassified Intelligence Satellite Photography (DISP) and Landsat time series data at five-year intervals from 1960 to 2015. Twelve shorelines were interpreted from DISP and Landsat images. The spatiotemporal changes in the shorelines were explored at five-year intervals within the study period for the Shanghai mainland and islands. The results indicate that shorelines in Shanghai accreted significantly over the last 55 years, but different accretion patterns were observed in Chongming Dongtan. The rate of shoreline change varied in different areas, and the most noticeable expansions were Chongming Beitan, Chongming Dongtan, Hengsha Dongtan, and Nanhuizui. The length of the entire shoreline increased by 25.7% from 472.6 km in 1960 to 594.2 km in 2015. Due to the shoreline changes, the Shanghai area expanded by 1,192.5 km2 by 2015, which was an increase of 19.9% relative to its 1960 area. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) was used to compute rate-of-change statistics. Between 1960 and 2015, 10.6% of the total transects exceeded 3 km of Net Shoreline Movement (NSM), with a maximum value of approximately 20 km at eastern Hengsha Island. The average Weighted Linear Regression Rate (WLR) of the Shanghai shoreline was 52.2 m/yr from 1960 to 2015; there was 94.1% accretion, 3.1% erosion, and 2.8% with no significant change. In addition, the driving

  11. Subtidal Bathymetric Changes by Shoreline Armoring Removal and Restoration Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, J.

    2016-12-01

    The Salish Sea, a region with a diverse coastline, is altered by anthropogenic shoreline modifications such as seawalls. In recent years, local organizations have moved to restore these shorelines. Current research monitors the changes restoration projects have on the upper beach, lower beach, and intertidal, however little research exists to record possible negative effects on the subtidal. The purpose of this research is to utilize multibeam sonar bathymetric data to analyze possible changes to the seafloor structure of the subtidal in response to shoreline modification and to investigate potential ecosystem consequences of shoreline alteration. The subtidal is home to several species including eelgrass (Zostera marina). Eelgrass is an important species in Puget Sound as it provides many key ecosystem functions including providing habitat for a wide variety of organisms, affecting the physics of waves, and sediment transport in the subtidal. Thus bathymetric changes could impact eelgrass growth and reduce its ability to provide crucial ecosystem services. Three Washington state study sites of completed shoreline restoration projects were used to generate data from areas of varied topographic classification, Seahurst Park in Burien, the Snohomish County Nearshore Restoration Project in Everett, and Cornet Bay State Park on Whidbey Island. Multibeam sonar data was acquired using a Konsberg EM 2040 system and post-processed in Caris HIPS to generate a base surface of one-meter resolution. It was then imported into the ArcGIS software suite for the generation of spatial metrics. Measurements of change were calculated through a comparison of historical and generated data. Descriptive metrics generated included, total elevation change, percent area changed, and a transition matrix of positive and negative change. Additionally, pattern metrics such as, surface roughness, and Bathymetric Position Index (BPI), were calculated. The comparison of historical data to new data

  12. Changes in the shoreline at Paradip Port, India in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopikrishna, B.; Deo, M. C.

    2018-02-01

    One of the popular methods to predict shoreline shifts into the future involves use of a shoreline evolution model driven by the historical wave climate. It is however understood by now that historical wave conditions might substantially change in future in response to climate change induced by the global warming. The future shoreline changes as well as sediment transport therefore need to be determined with the help of future projections of wave climate. In this work this is done at the port of Paradip situated along the east coast of India. The high resolution wind resulting from a climate modelling experiment called: CORDEX, South Asia, was used to simulate waves over two time-slices of 25 years each in past and future. The wave simulations were carried out with the help of a numerical wave model. Thereafter, rates of longshore sediment transport as well as shoreline shifts were determined over past and future using a numerical shoreline model. It was found that at Paradip Port the net littoral drift per metre width of cross-shore might go up by 37% and so also the net accumulated drift over the entire cross-shore width by 71%. This could be caused by an increase in the mean significant wave height of around 32% and also by changes in the frequency and direction of waves. The intensification of waves in turn might result from an increase in the mean wind speed of around 19%. Similarly, the horizontal extent of the beach accretion and erosion at the port's southern breakwater might go up by 4 m and 8 m, respectively, from the current level in another 25 years. This study should be useful in framing future port management strategies.

  13. Shoreline changes in and around the Thubon River mouth, Central Vietnam

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mau, L.D.; Nayak, G.N.; SanilKumar, V.

    Application of GENESIS model (GENEralized model for Simulating Shoreline change) for studying the shoreline change in and around the Thubon River Mouth, Central Vietnam is presented in this paper The input parameters used are the near shore wave...

  14. Automatic Detection of Decadal Shoreline Change on Northern Coastal of Gresik, East Java - Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuad, M. A. Z.; A, M. Fais D.

    2017-12-01

    The Coastal zone is a dynamic region that has high environmental and economic values. This present research focuses on the analyzing the rate of shoreline change using multi-temporal Landsat Imagery and Digital Shoreline Analysis Systems (DSAS) along the northern part of Gresik coastal area, East Java Indonesia. Five village were selected for analysis; Campurejo, Dalegan, Prupuh, Ngemboh, and Banyuurip. Erosion and Accretion were observed and detected on Multi-temporal satellite Images along the area of interest from 1972 - 2016. Landsat Images were radiometrically and geometrically corrected before using for analysis. Coastline delineation for each Landsat image was performed by MNDWI method before digitized for quantitative shoreline change analysis. DSAS was performed for quantitative analysis of Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) and End Point Rate (EPR). The results indicate that in the study area accretion and abrasion was occurred, but overall abrasion was dominated than accretion. The remarkable shoreline changes were observed in the entire region. The highest abrasion area was occurred in Ngemboh village. From 1972 to 2016, coastline was retreat 242.56 meter to the land and the rate of movement was -5.54m/yr. In contrast, Campurejo area was relatively stable due to the introduction of manmade structure, i.e. Jetty and Groin. The Shoreline movement and the rate of movement in this area were -6.11m and -0.12 m/yr respectively. The research represents an important step in understanding the dynamics of coastal area in this area. By identification and analysis of coastline evolution, the stake holder could perform a scenario for reducing the risk of coastal erosion and minimize the social and economic lost.

  15. Modeling of Shoreline Changes of Tulamben Coast, Bali Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuanita, Nita; Pratama, Roka; Husrin, Semeidi

    2015-04-01

    Modeling of Shoreline Changes of Tulamben Coast, Bali Indonesia Tulamben coast is located in Lombok Strait on the northeastern coast of Bali island, Indonesia, as part of Karang Asem district. Severe erosion along the coastline has long been occurred in Karang Asem area and threatening houses, religious buildings (Hindu temples), and a national heritage site. As one of most popular diving site in Bali Island, Tulamben attracted many local and international tourist since 1980. The main attraction of Tulamben diving site is the USAT Liberty ship that was shipwrecked in Tulamben beach in 1942, after attacked by Japanese torpedo in Lombok Strait. Currently about 150 diver visit Tulamben per day. Due to physical changes of coastal environmental such as coastal erosion, sliding, and scouring, the shipwreck is vulnerable. It had been slipped off the beach several times and is predicted would be moved to deeper offshore floor if it is not protected. Coastal erosion in Karang Asem district is occurred probably due to interaction between cross-shore and long-shore wave-generated current and river sand supply decreasing after sand mining activities. In this study, the effect of cross-shore and longshore transport to coastal erosion in Tulamben is analyzed by doing numerical model. Numerical simulation of shoreline changes is performed by using Beach Processes Module of CEDAS (Coastal Engineering Design and Analysis System) consists of SBEACH and GENESIS. The model domain is covered Karang Asem coastline about 60 km length and wave data is calculated from hourly wind data (10 years). Simulated shoreline is calibrated using shoreline data from 1972 to 2013. Using calibrated model, then the simulation is performed from 2003 - 2013. From the simulation it is determined that longshore current and longshore sediment contribute to coastal erosion in Tulamben. Based on model results, several alternatives of general layout and configuration of coastal protection structures is proposed

  16. Wave energy fluxes and multi-decadal shoreline changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kabuth, Alina Kristin; Kroon, Aart

    2014-01-01

    Spatial patterns of multidecadal shoreline changes in two microtidal, low-energetic embayments of southern Zealand, Denmark, were investigated by using the directional distribution of wave energy fluxes. The sites include a barrier island system attached to moraine bluffs, and a recurved spit...... variability of directional distributions of wave energy fluxes furthermore outlined potential sediment sources and sinks for the evolution of the barrier island system and for the evolution of the recurved spit....... adjacent to a cliff coast. The barrier island system is characterized by cross-shore translation and by an alignment of the barrier alongshore alternating directions of barrier-spit progradation in a bidirectional wave field. The recurved spit adjacent to the cliff coast experienced shoreline rotation...

  17. Hurricane impact and recovery shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, USA: 1855 to 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearnley, Sarah Mary; Miner, Michael D.; Kulp, Mark; Bohling, Carl; Penland, Shea

    2009-12-01

    Results from historical (1855-2005) shoreline change analysis conducted along the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana demonstrate that tropical cyclone frequency dominates the long-term evolution of this barrier island chain. Island area decreased at a rate of -0.16 km2/year for the relatively quiescent time period up until 1996, when an increase in tropical cyclone frequency accelerated this island area reduction to a rate of -1.01 km2/year. More frequent hurricanes also affected shoreline retreat rates, which increased from -11.4 m/year between 1922 and 1996 to -41.9 m/year between 1982 and 2005. The erosional impact caused by the passage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was unprecedented. Between 2004 and 2005, the shoreline of the northern islands retreated -201.5 m/year, compared with an average retreat rate of -38.4 m/year between 1922 and 2004. A linear regression analysis of shoreline change predicts that, as early as 2013, the backbarrier marsh that serves to stabilize the barrier island chain will be completely destroyed if storm frequency observed during the past decade persists. If storm frequency decreases to pre-1996 recurrence intervals, the backbarrier marsh is predicted to remain until 2037. Southern portions of the barrier island chain where backbarrier marsh is now absent behave as ephemeral islands that are destroyed after storm impacts and reemerge during extended periods of calm weather, a coastal behavior that will eventually characterize the entire island chain.

  18. Shoreline Changes at New Mangalore Port, India in the past and over future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bharathan Radhamma, R.; Deo, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    The New Mangalore port is one of the major ports along the west coast of India. It is of artificial type with a pair of breakwaters constructed in phases from the year 1974 to 1996. The studies indicating the impact of constructing the breakwaters on adjacent shorelines after 1996 are difficult to find. The present work is aimed in this direction. For a 10 km stretch of the coast lying on both sides of the breakwaters 35 transects were constructed and shorelines were delineated from 4 satellite imageries that were recorded over the past 36 years at around 12 years' interval. Over each transect the rate of change of shoreline was calculated using linear regression and its adequacy was checked using the error statistics of R2 and RMSE. After such satisfactory cross-check, shorelines were predicted over the 12 and 36 years in future, i. e., in the years: 2028 and 2051. The patches undergoing erosion as well as accretion were identified. It was found that the rate of shoreline shifts fluctuated from -1.69 ± 0.45 m/year to 2.56 ± 0.45 m/year and about 52.28 % of the study area underwent substantial erosion. Most of the transects located toward north of the northern breakwater saw pro-gradation while those sited at south of the southern breakwater exhibited chronic erosion. The human interventions and presence of artificial structures accelerated the changes in the shoreline and also gave rise to higher uncertainties. The paper will present full details of the methodology, results and their interpretation.

  19. Effects of oil on the rate and trajectory of Louisiana marsh shoreline erosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McClenachan, Giovanna; Eugene Turner, R; Tweel, Andrew W

    2013-01-01

    Oil can have long-term detrimental effects on marsh plant health, both above- and belowground. However, there are few data available that quantify the accelerated rate of erosion that oil may cause to marshes and the trajectory of change. Between November 2010 and August 2012, we collected data on shoreline erosion, soil strength, per cent cover of Spartina alterniflora, and marsh edge overhang at 30 closely spaced low oil and high oil sites in Bay Batiste, Louisiana. Surface oil samples were taken one meter into the marsh in February 2011. All high oiled sites in Bay Batiste were contaminated with Macondo 252 oil (oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, 20 April–15 July 2010). The results suggest that there is a threshold where soil parameters change dramatically with a relatively small increase in oil concentration in the soil. Heavy oiling weakens the soil, creating a deeper undercut of the upper 50 cm of the marsh edge, and causing an accelerated rate of erosion that cascades along the shoreline. Our results demonstrate that it could take at least 2 yr to document the effects heavy oiling has had on the marsh shoreline. The presence of aboveground vegetation alone may not be an appropriate indicator of recovery. (letter)

  20. SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF SHORELINE CHANGES IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2011-12-05

    Dec 5, 2011 ... The study recommended periodic monitoring of the coastal area on monthly and yearly bases. Keywords: Shoreline, GIS, Remote sensing, Bonny Island, Water transport, .... imported to Arcview GIS 3.3 for enhancement.

  1. Application of the AMBUR R package for spatio-temporal analysis of shoreline change: Jekyll Island, Georgia, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Chester W.; Alexander, Clark R.; Bush, David M.

    2012-04-01

    The AMBUR (Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R) package for the R software environment provides a collection of functions for assisting with analyzing and visualizing historical shoreline change. The package allows import and export of geospatial data in ESRI shapefile format, which is compatible with most commercial and open-source GIS software. The "baseline and transect" method is the primary technique used to quantify distances and rates of shoreline movement, and to detect classification changes across time. Along with the traditional "perpendicular" transect method, two new transect methods, "near" and "filtered," assist with quantifying changes along curved shorelines that are problematic for perpendicular transect methods. Output from the analyses includes data tables, graphics, and geospatial data, which are useful in rapidly assessing trends and potential errors in the dataset. A forecasting function also allows the user to estimate the future location of the shoreline and store the results in a shapefile. Other utilities and tools provided in the package assist with preparing and manipulating geospatial data, error checking, and generating supporting graphics and shapefiles. The package can be customized to perform additional statistical, graphical, and geospatial functions, and, it is capable of analyzing the movement of any boundary (e.g., shorelines, glacier terminus, fire edge, and marine and terrestrial ecozones).

  2. Application of remote sensing and GIS for detection of long-term mangrove shoreline changes in Ca Mau, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran Thi, V.; Phan Nguyen, H.; Tien Thi Xuan, A.; Dahdouh-Guebas, F.; Koedam, N.

    2013-12-01

    Ca Mau at the southern tip of Vietnam supports a large area of mangroves and has a high value for biodiversity and scenic beauty. This area is affected by erosion along the East Sea and accretion along the Gulf of Thailand, leading to the loss of huge stretches of mangroves along the East Sea and, in some cases, loss of ecosystems services provided by mangroves. In this study, we used remotely sensed aerial (1953), Landsat (1979, 1988, and 2000) and SPOT (1992, 1995, 2004, 2008 and 2009, and 2011) images and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) to quantify the rate of mangrove shoreline change for a 58 yr period. There were 1129 transects sampled at 100 m intervals along the mangrove shoreline and two statistical methods, namely End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR), were used to calculate the rate of change of mangrove shorelines and distance from 1953 to 2011. The study confirms erosion and accretion respectively are significant at the Eastern and Western Sea sides of the Ca Mau tip. The East Sea side had a mean erosion LRR of 33.24 m yr-1. For the accretion trend at the Gulf of Thailand side averaged at rate of 40.65 m yr-1. The results are important in predicting changes of coastal ecosystem boundaries and enable advanced planning for specific sections of coastline, to minimize or neutralize losses, to inform provincial rehabilitation efforts and reduce threats to coastal development and human safety.

  3. Application of remote sensing and GIS for detection of long-term mangrove shoreline changes in Mui Ca Mau, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran Thi, V.; Tien Thi Xuan, A.; Phan Nguyen, H.; Dahdouh-Guebas, F.; Koedam, N.

    2014-07-01

    Mui Ca Mau at the southern tip of Vietnam supports a large area of mangroves and has a high value for biodiversity and scenic beauty. This area is affected by erosion along the East Sea and accretion along the Gulf of Thailand, leading to the loss of huge stretches of mangroves along the East Sea and, in some cases, loss of environmental and ecosystem services provided by mangroves. In this study, we used remotely sensed aerial (1953), Landsat (1979, 1988 and 2000) and SPOT (1992, 1995, 2004, 2008, 2009 and 2011) images and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) to quantify the rate of mangrove shoreline change for a 58 yr period. There were 1129 transects sampled at 100 m intervals along the mangrove shoreline and two statistical methods, namely end point rate (EPR) and linear regression rate (LRR), were used to calculate the rate of change of mangrove shorelines and distance from 1953 to 2011. The study confirms that erosion and accretion, respectively, are significant at the East Sea and Gulf of Thailand sides of Mui Ca Mau. The East Sea side had a mean erosion LRR of 33.24 m yr-1. The accretion trend at the Gulf of Thailand side had an average rate of 40.65 m yr-1. The results are important in predicting changes of coastal ecosystem boundaries and enable advanced planning for specific sections of coastline, to minimize or neutralize losses, to inform provincial rehabilitation efforts and reduce threats to coastal development and human safety.

  4. Monitoring of shoreline changes using remote sensing (case study: coastal city of Bandar Abbas)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamassoki, E; Amiri, H; Soleymani, Z

    2014-01-01

    Shoreline change is one of the most common natural processes that prevail upon coastal areas. The most important aspect of managing coastal areas is identifying the location and change over time of shoreline. This requires frequent monitoring of the shoreline using satellite imagery over time. We have used imagery from the Landsat TM-5 sensor from 1984,1998 and 2009 in order to monitor shoreline changes using the Max Likelihood Classification method (MLC) in Bandar Abbas city. Monitoring showed that during the period from 1984 to 1998 the area of coastline of Bandar Abbas increased 804.09 hectares. The increase over the next 11-year period was as less, at only 140.81 hectares. In 2009 there was a drastic decrease in shoreline, with the total length of shoreline decreasing from 330 km to 271 km during the period from 1984 to 2009.Results showed that in each period in which the area of coastline advanced, changes in length of shoreline had been less prominent

  5. Multidecadal (1960–2011 shoreline changes in Isbjørnhamna (Hornsund, Svalbard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zagórski Piotr

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A section of a gravel-dominated coast in Isbjørnhamna (Hornsund, Svalbard was analysed to calculate the rate of shoreline changes and explain processes controlling coastal zone development over last 50 years. Between 1960 and 2011, coastal landscape of Isbjørnhamna experienced a significant shift from dominated by influence of tide-water glacier and protected by prolonged sea-ice conditions towards storm-affected and rapidly changing coast. Information derived from analyses of aerial images and geomorphological mapping shows that the Isbjørnhamna coastal zone is dominated by coastal erosion resulting in a shore area reduction of more than 31,600 m2. With ~3,500 m2 of local aggradation, the general balance of changes in the study area of the shore is negative, and amounts to a loss of more than 28,000 m2. Mean shoreline change is −13.1 m (−0.26 m a−1. Erosional processes threaten the Polish Polar Station infrastructure and may damage of one of the storage buildings in nearby future.

  6. Observations and 3D hydrodynamics-based modeling of decadal-scale shoreline change along the Outer Banks, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, Ilgar; List, Jeffrey; Warner, John C.; Kumar, Nirnimesh

    2017-01-01

    Long-term decadal-scale shoreline change is an important parameter for quantifying the stability of coastal systems. The decadal-scale coastal change is controlled by processes that occur on short time scales (such as storms) and long-term processes (such as prevailing waves). The ability to predict decadal-scale shoreline change is not well established and the fundamental physical processes controlling this change are not well understood. Here we investigate the processes that create large-scale long-term shoreline change along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, an uninterrupted 60 km stretch of coastline, using both observations and a numerical modeling approach. Shoreline positions for a 24-yr period were derived from aerial photographs of the Outer Banks. Analysis of the shoreline position data showed that, although variable, the shoreline eroded an average of 1.5 m/yr throughout this period. The modeling approach uses a three-dimensional hydrodynamics-based numerical model coupled to a spectral wave model and simulates the full 24-yr time period on a spatial grid running on a short (second scale) time-step to compute the sediment transport patterns. The observations and the model results show similar magnitudes (O(105 m3/yr)) and patterns of alongshore sediment fluxes. Both the observed and the modeled alongshore sediment transport rates have more rapid changes at the north of our section due to continuously curving coastline, and possible effects of alongshore variations in shelf bathymetry. The southern section with a relatively uniform orientation, on the other hand, has less rapid transport rate changes. Alongshore gradients of the modeled sediment fluxes are translated into shoreline change rates that have agreement in some locations but vary in others. Differences between observations and model results are potentially influenced by geologic framework processes not included in the model. Both the observations and the model results show higher rates of

  7. Numerical simulation of hydrodynamic and water quality effects of shoreline changes in Bohai Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Han; Shen, Yongming; Su, Meirong; Yu, Chunxue

    2018-02-01

    This study uses the HD and Ecolab modules of MIKE to simulate the hydrodynamic and water quality and predict the influence of shoreline changes in Bohai Bay, China. The study shows that shoreline changes weaken the residual current and generate a counter-clockwise circulation south of Huanghua Port, thereby resulting in weak water exchange capacity and low pollutant-diffusing capacity. Shoreline changes reduce the area of Bohai Bay, resulting in a smaller tidal prism and further weakening the water exchange capacity. This situation is not conducive to the diffusion of pollutants, and therefore may lead to increased water pollution in the bay. Shoreline changes hinder the spread of runoff, weaken the dilution effect of the river on seawater, and block the spread of coastal residual current, thereby resulting in increased salinity near the reclamation area. Shoreline changes lead to an increase in PO4-P concentration and decrease in DIN concentration. The value of N/P near the project decreases, thereby weakening the phosphorus-limited effect.

  8. Observations of Interannual Dune Morphological Evolution With Comparisons to Shoreline Change Along the Columbia River Littoral Cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doermann, L.; Kaminsky, G. M.; Ruggiero, P.

    2006-12-01

    Beach topographic data have been collected along the 160 km-long Columbia River Littoral Cell in southwest Washington and northwest Oregon, USA as part of the Southwest Washington Coastal Erosion Study and a NANOOS pilot project. The monitoring program includes the collection of cross-shore beach profiles at 49 sites for each of the 34 seasons since 1997 (with few exceptions), enabling the investigation of the seasonal to interannual morphological variability of this high-energy coast. We focus here on the dunes backing the beaches, aiming to quantitatively describe the wide variety of characteristics they exhibit, as well as to relate dune evolution to shoreline change. To analyze the large volume of high-quality data, we use automated algorithms and systematic processes to identify the location of the dune toe, crest, and face, and calculate a volume (where enough data are available) and beach width for each survey. We define the position of the dune face as the elevation half-way between the average dune toe and average dune crest elevations at each profile location, and beach width as the horizontal distance between the 2-m contour (~MSL) and the dune toe. Much like shoreline proxies lower on the beach profile, (e.g., the 3-m contour), the location of the dune toe shows large seasonal variability with onshore deposition of sand in summer months and offshore sand transport in the winter. However, the location of the dune face and the elevation of the dune crest are much less variable and are useful in describing the evolution of the dune/beach system in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively, over interannual time scales. On beaches with the highest shoreline change rates in the study area, the dune face follows the progradational trend of the shoreline with the dune face prograding at approximately 25-50% of the rate of the shoreline. Along many of these beaches that experienced severe erosion during the El Niño of 1997/98, the dune face

  9. Measuring Sea Level Rise-Induced Shoreline Changes and Inundation in Real Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shilling, F.; Waetjen, D.; Grijalva, E.

    2016-12-01

    We describe a method to monitor shoreline inundation and changes in response to sea level rise (SLR) using a network of time-lapse cameras. We found for coastal tidal marshes that this method was sensitive to vertical changes in sea level of 20 cm has occurred in the San Francisco Bay and other US coastal areas and is likely to rise by another 30-45 cm by mid-century, which will flood and erode many coastal ecosystems, highways, and urban areas. This rapid degree of rise means that it is imperative to co-plan for natural and built systems. Many public facilities are adjacent to shoreline ecosystems, which both protect infrastructure from wave and tide energy and are home to regulated species and habitats. Accurate and timely information about the actual extent of SLR impacts to shorelines will be critical during built-system adaptation. Currently, satellite-sourced imagery cannot provide the spatial or temporal resolution necessary to investigate fine-scale shoreline changes, leaving a gap between predictive models and knowing how, where and when these changes are occurring. The method described is feasible for near-term (1 to 10 years) to long-term application and can be used for measuring fine-resolution shoreline changes (organize photographs that could be combined with related external data (e.g., gauged water levels) to create an information mashup. This information could be used to validate models predicting shoreline inundation and loss, inform SLR-adaptation planning, and to visualize SLR impacts to the public.

  10. Exploring the Dominant Modes of Shoreline Change Along the Central Florida Atlantic Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlin, M. P.; Adams, P. N.; Jaeger, J. M.; MacKenzie, R.

    2017-12-01

    Geomorphic change within the littoral zone can place communities, ecosystems, and critical infrastructure at risk as the coastal environment responds to changes in sea level, sediment supply, and wave climate. At NASA's Kennedy Space Center near Cape Canaveral, Florida, chronic shoreline retreat currently threatens critical launch infrastructure, but the spatial (alongshore) pattern of this hazard has not been well documented. During a 5-year monitoring campaign (2009-2014), 86 monthly and rapid-response RTK GPS surveys were completed along this 11 km-long coastal reach in order to monitor and characterize shoreline change and identify links between ocean forcing and beach morphology. Results indicate that the study area can be divided into four behaviorally-distinct alongshore regions based on seasonal variability in shoreline change, mediated by the complex offshore bathymetry of the Cape Canaveral shoals. In addition, seasonal erosion/accretion cycles are regularly interrupted by large erosive storm events, especially during the anomalous wave climates produced during winter Nor'Easter storms. An effective tool for analyzing multidimensional datasets like this one is Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, a technique to determine the dominant spatial and temporal signals within a dataset. Using this approach, it is possible to identify the main time and space scales (modes) along which coastal changes are occurring. Through correlation of these changes with oceanographic forcing mechanisms, we are enabled to infer the principal drivers of shoreline change at this site. Here, we document the results of EOF analysis applied to the Cape Canaveral shoreline change dataset, and further correlate the results of this analysis with oceanographic forcings in order to reveal the dominant modes as well as drivers of coastal variability along the central Atlantic coast of Florida. This EOF-based analysis, which is the first such analysis in the region, is shedding

  11. Correlation between land use changes and shoreline changes around THE Nakdong River in Korea using landsat images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, J. S.; Lim, C.; Baek, S. G.; Shin, S.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal erosion has badly affected the marine environment, as well as the safety of various coastal structures. In order to monitor shoreline changes due to coastal erosion, remote sensing techniques are being utilized. The land-cover map classifies the physical material on the surface of the earth, and it can be utilized in establishing eco-policy and land-use policy. In this study, we analyzed the correlation between land-use changes around the Nakdong River and shoreline changes at Busan Dadaepo Beach adjacent to the river. We produced the land-cover map based on the guidelines published by the Ministry of Environment Korea, using eight Landsat satellite images obtained from 1984 to 2015. To observe land use changes around the Nakdong River, the study site was set to include the surroundings areas of the Busan Dadaepo Beach, the Nakdong River as well as its estuary, and also Busan New Port. For the land-use classification of the study site, we also produced a land-cover map divided into seven categories according to the Ministry of Environment, Korea guidelines and using the most accurate Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM). Land use changes inland, at 500m from the shoreline, were excluded for the correlation analysis between land use changes and shoreline changes. The other categories, except for the water category, were transformed into numerical values and the land-use classifications, using all other categories, were analyzed. Shoreline changes were observed by setting the base-line and three cut-lines. We assumed that longshore bars around the Nakdong River and the shoreline of the Busan Dadaepo Beach are affected. Therefore, we expect that shoreline changes happen due to the influence of barren land, wetlands, built-up areas and deposition. The causes are due to natural factors, such as weather, waves, tide currents, longshore currents, and also artificial factors such as coastal structures, construction, and dredging.

  12. Spatio-temporal evolution of shoreline changes along the coast between sousse- Monastir (Eastearn of Tunisia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathallah, S.; Ben Amor, R.; Gueddari, M.

    2009-04-01

    Spatio-temporal evolution of shoreline Changes along the coast between Sousse-Monastir (Eastern of Tunisia). Safa Fathallah*, Rim Ben Amor and Moncef Gueddari Unit of Research of Geochemistry and Environmental Geology. Faculty of Science of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, 2092. (*) Corresponding author: safa_fathallah@yahoo.fr The coast of Sousse-Monastir in eastern of Tunisia, has undergone great changes, due to natural and anthropic factors. Increasing human use, the construction of two ports and coastal urbanization (hotels and industries) has accelerated the erosion process. The coastal defense structures (breakwaters and enrockment), built to protect the most eroded zone are efficient, but eroded zones appeared in the southern part of breakwaters. Recent and historic aerial photography was used to estimate, observe, and analyze past shoreline and bathymetric positions and trends involving shore evolution for Sousse-Monastir coast. All of the photographs were calibrated and mosaicked by Arc Map Gis 9.1, the years used are 1925, 1962, 1988, 1996, and 2001 for shoreline change analysis and 1884 and 2001 for bathymetric changes. The analyze of this photographs show that the zone located at the south of breakwater are mostly eroded with high speed process (2m/year). Another zone appears as eroded at the south part of Hamdoun River, with 1,5m/year erosion speed . Keywords: Shoreline evolution, defense structures, Sousse-Monastir coast, Tunisia.

  13. Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2016-01-01

    Predictions of coastal evolution driven by episodic and persistent processes associated with storms and relative sea-level rise (SLR) are required to test our understanding, evaluate our predictive capability, and to provide guidance for coastal management decisions. Previous work demonstrated that the spatial variability of long-term shoreline change can be predicted using observed SLR rates, tide range, wave height, coastal slope, and a characterization of the geomorphic setting. The shoreline is not suf- ficient to indicate which processes are important in causing shoreline change, such as overwash that depends on coastal dune elevations. Predicting dune height is intrinsically important to assess future storm vulnerability. Here, we enhance shoreline-change predictions by including dune height as a vari- able in a statistical modeling approach. Dune height can also be used as an input variable, but it does not improve the shoreline-change prediction skill. Dune-height input does help to reduce prediction uncer- tainty. That is, by including dune height, the prediction is more precise but not more accurate. Comparing hindcast evaluations, better predictive skill was found when predicting dune height (0.8) compared with shoreline change (0.6). The skill depends on the level of detail of the model and we identify an optimized model that has high skill and minimal overfitting. The predictive model can be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios, and we illustrate the impacts of a higher future sea-level. This scenario shows that the shoreline change becomes increasingly erosional and more uncertain. Predicted dune heights are lower and the dune height uncertainty decreases.

  14. Digital shoreline analysis system-based change detection along the highly eroding Krishna-Godavari delta front

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallepalli, Akhil; Kakani, Nageswara Rao; James, David B.; Richardson, Mark A.

    2017-07-01

    Coastal regions are highly vulnerable to rising sea levels due to global warming. Previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) predictions of 26 to 82 cm global sea level rise are now considered conservative. Subsequent investigations predict much higher levels which would displace 10% of the world's population living less than 10 m above sea level. Remote sensing and GIS technologies form the mainstay of models on coastal retreat and inundation to future sea-level rise. This study estimates the varying trends along the Krishna-Godavari (K-G) delta region. The rate of shoreline shift along the 330-km long K-G delta coast was estimated using satellite images between 1977 and 2008. With reference to a selected baseline from along an inland position, end point rate and net shoreline movement were calculated using a GIS-based digital shoreline analysis system. The results indicated a net loss of about 42.1 km2 area during this 31-year period, which is in agreement with previous literature. Considering the nature of landforms and EPR, the future hazard line (or coastline) is predicted for the area; the predication indicates a net erosion of about 57.6 km2 along the K-G delta coast by 2050 AD.

  15. Living Shorelines: Assessing Geomorphic Change and Water Quality in an Urban Waterway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggins, A.; Schwartz, M. C.; Schmutz, P. P.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, alternative strategies for shoreline armoring have become increasingly popular with coastal property owners. In Northwest Florida, local agencies implemented plans to attenuate wave action and reduce landward shore recession in an urban bayou by installing living shorelines. Living shorelines are constructed in the inter-tidal zones and incorporate both hard and soft structured stabilization. Generally, the hard component is fossilized oyster shells and the soft component is planted intertidal vegetation, such as Spartina alterniflora (Smooth cordgrass) and Juncus roemererianus (Black needlerush). Living shorelines were intended to comprise both ecological and societal implications by significantly slowing erosion processes for property owners, by utilizing oyster beds to improve water quality, and by fostering new ecological habitats in the marsh grasses. The issue presented with living shoreline management is long-term studies have not been carried out on these engineered systems. For this study, geospatial technology was utilized to create 3D images of terrain by interpolation of data points using a TotalStation to compute geomorphic change. Additionally, water samples were analyzed using traditional wet chemistry laboratory methods to determine total oxidized nitrogen (TON), ammonium, and orthophosphate content in water. Over a short three-month preliminary study, sediment accretion was observed primarily within the vegetation with the bulk of the erosion occurring around the oyster beds. TON was detected at levels between 10 µM and 30 µM, ammonium up to 5 µM, and orthophosphate was only detected in very low levels, consistently quality data will be used to establish baseline data for future research to determine volumetric geomorphic change,and to set a standard for water quality trends, surrounding oyster beds and vegetation in response to climatic events.

  16. Understanding Long-term, Large-scale Shoreline Change and the Sediment Budget on Fire Island, NY, using a 3D hydrodynamics-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, J. H.; Safak, I.; Warner, J. C.; Schwab, W. C.; Hapke, C. J.; Lentz, E. E.

    2016-02-01

    The processes responsible for long-term (decadal) shoreline change and the related imbalance in the sediment budget on Fire Island, a 50 km long barrier island on the south coast of Long Island, NY, has been the subject of debate. The estimated net rate of sediment leaving the barrier at the west end of the island is approximately double the estimated net rate of sediment entering in the east, but the island-wide average sediment volume change associated with shoreline change is near zero and cannot account for this deficit. A long-held hypothesis is that onshore sediment flux from the inner continental shelf within the western half of the island is responsible for balancing the sediment budget. To investigate this possibility, we use a nested, 3-D, hydrodynamics-based modeling system (COAWST) to simulate the island-wide alongshore and cross-shore transport, in combination with shoreline change observations. The modeled, net alongshore transport gradients in the nearshore predict that the central part of Fire Island should be erosional, yet shoreline change observations show this area to be accretionary. We compare the model-predicted alongshore transport gradients with the flux gradients that would be required to generate the observed shoreline change, to give the pattern of sediment volume gains or losses that cannot be explained by the modeled alongshore transport gradients. Results show that the western 30 km of coast requires an input of sediment, supporting the hypothesis of onshore flux in this area. The modeled cross-shore flux of sediment between the shoreface and inner shelf is consistent these results, with onshore-directed bottom currents creating an environment more conducive to onshore sediment flux in the western 30 km of the island compared to the eastern 20 km. We conclude that the cross-shore flux of sediment can explain the shoreline change observations, and is an integral component of Fire Island's sediment budget.

  17. Shoreline change detection from Karwar to Gokarna - South West coast of India using remotely Sensed data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Choudhary, R.; Gowthaman, R.; SanilKumar, V.

    -494 #02060313 Copyright ©2013 CAFET-INNOVA TECHNICAL SOCIETY. All rights reserved. Shoreline change detection from Karwar to Gokarna - South West coast of India using remotely Sensed data RICHA CHOUDHARY 1 , R. GOWTHAMAN 2 AND V. SANIL KUMAR 2 1... years period. Gangavali river mouth has narrowed due to siltation. Significant changes in the geomorphic features like spit growth, braided island, creeks, tidal flat are observed near Kali and Gangavali river mouth. Keywords: Remote sensing...

  18. Hurricane impact and recovery shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, USA: 1855 to 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearnley, Sarah M.; Miner, Michael; Brock, John C.

    2011-01-01

    Results from historical (1855-2005) shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, demonstrate that tropical cyclone frequency dominates the long-term evolution of this barrier-island arc. The detailed results of this study were published in December 2009 as part of a special issue of Geo-Marine Letters that documents early results from the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project.

  19. Shoreline changes in reef islands of the Central Pacific: Takapoto Atoll, Northern Tuamotu, French Polynesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvat, Virginie K. E.; Pillet, Valentin

    2017-04-01

    Atoll reef islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. While accelerated sea-level rise is expected to destabilize reef islands, ocean warming and acidification are considered as major threats to coral reef growth, which is of primary importance for the persistence of islands and of food supply to islanders. Using multi-date aerial imagery, shoreline and island changes between 1969 and 2013 were assessed on Takapoto Atoll, Northern Tuamotu region, in French Polynesia. Results show that over the 44-year study period, 41% of islands were stable in area while 33% expanded and 26% contracted. Island expansion was the dominant mode of change on the leeward side of the atoll. Tropical Cyclone Orama (category 3, 1983) contributed to shoreline and island change on the windward side of the atoll through the reworking of previous storm deposits and the injection of fresh sediments in the island system (with up to 62% of an island's land area being covered with fresh sediments). Human activities contributed significantly to shoreline and island change throughout the atoll through infrastructure construction, the removal of the indigenous vegetation from a number of islets and sediment mining.

  20. Mangroves and shoreline change on Molokai, Hawaii: Assessing the role of introduced Rhizophora mangle in sediment dynamics and coastal change using remote sensing and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Iorio, Margaret Mary

    The Florida red mangrove, Rhizophora mangle, was introduced to the high volcanic island of Molokai, Hawaii in 1902 to trap sediment and stabilize eroding coastal mudflats along the island's reef-fringed south coast. This prolific invasive species now occupies 2.4 km2 of inter-tidal land and borders approximately 20% of the south coast shoreline. Integrating the fundamentals of remote sensing and Geographical Information Systems, this research investigates the effects of mangrove introduction on sediment dynamics and coastal change on south Molokai throughout the 20th century and provides a baseline of mangrove distribution, a detailed record of shoreline change rates, and a chronological history of island land use and environmental change. Monitoring of coastal change associated with mangroves is essential to understanding how natural coastal ecosystems react to alien species introductions and adapt overall to changing climatic regimes. Comparing the accuracy of various remote sensing instruments and processing techniques, this study has shown that the remote sensing with modern airborne and satellite sensors offers an effective management tool for mapping baseline conditions and monitoring change in remote island environments like that on the south coast of Molokai. Shoreline change assessment found that shoreline change rates on the island's south coast varied both alongshore and through time and that the dominant change has been one of progradation. Rates of change peaked in the early part of the 20th century and have since decayed exponentially over time. Changing land use practices coupled with the introduction of invasive species may have strongly influenced observed variability in rates of coastal change. Field observations and sediment analysis suggest that sediment transfer across the coastal boundary on the mangrove-fringed south coast is relatively limited and appears to be mainly event-driven. For shallow, reef-fringed, coastal regions vulnerable to

  1. Shoreline change and potential sea level rise impacts in a climate hazardous location in southeast coast of India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayanthi, Marappan; Thirumurthy, Selvasekar; Samynathan, Muthusamy; Duraisamy, Muthusamy; Muralidhar, Moturi; Ashokkumar, Jangam; Vijayan, Koyadan Kizhakkedath

    2017-12-28

    Climate change impact on the environment makes the coastal areas vulnerable and demands the evaluation of such susceptibility. Historical changes in the shoreline positions and inundation based on projected sea-level scenarios of 0.5 and 1 m were assessed for Nagapattinam District, a low-lying coastal area in the southeast coast of India, using high-resolution Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data; multi-dated Landsat satellite images of 1978, 1991, 2003, and 2015; and census data of 2011. Image processing, geographical information system, and digital shoreline analysis system methods were used in the study. The shoreline variation indicated that erosion rate varied at different time scales. The end point rate indicated the highest mean erosion of - 3.12 m/year, occurred in 73% of coast between 1978 and 1991. Weighted linear regression analysis revealed that the coast length of 83% was under erosion at a mean rate of - 2.11 m/year from 1978 to 2015. Sea level rise (SLR) impact indicated that the coastal area of about 14,122 ha from 225 villages and 31,318 ha from 272 villages would be permanently inundated for the SLR of 0.5 and 1 m, respectively, which includes agriculture, mangroves, wetlands, aquaculture, and forest lands. The loss of coastal wetlands and its associated productivity will severely threaten more than half the coastal population. Adaptation measures in people participatory mode, integrated into coastal zone management with a focus on sub-regional coastal activities, are needed to respond to the consequences of climate change.

  2. Analysis of Decadal-Scale Shoreline Change along the Hamlet of Paulatuk (Canadian Arctic), using Landsat Satellite Imagery and GIS techniques from 1984 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankar, R. D.; Murray, M. S.; Wells, P.

    2016-12-01

    Increased accuracy in estimating coastal change along localized segments of the Canadian Arctic coast is essential, in order to identify plausible adaptation initiatives to deal with the effects of climate change. This paper quantifies rates of shoreline movement along an 11 km segment of the Hamlet of Paulatuk (Northwest Territories, Canada), using an innovative modelling technique - Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R (AMBUR). Approximately two dozen shorelines, obtained from high-resolution Landsat satellite imagery were analyzed. Shorelines were extracted using the band ratio method and compiled in ArcMapTM to determine decadal trends of coastal change. The unique geometry of Paulatuk facilitated an independent analysis of the western and eastern sections of the study area. Long-term (1984-2014) and short-term (1984-2003) erosion and accretion rates were calculated using the Linear Regression and End Point Rate methods respectively. Results reveal an elevated rate of erosion for the western section of the hamlet over the long-term (-1.1 m/yr), compared to the eastern portion (-0.92 m/yr). The study indicates a significant alongshore increase in the rates of erosion on both portions of the study area, over the short-term period 1984 to 2003. Mean annual erosion rates increased over the short-term along the western segment (-1.4 m/yr), while the eastern shoreline retreated at a rate of -1.3 m/yr over the same period. The analysis indicates that an amalgamation of factors may be responsible for the patterns of land loss experienced along Paulatuk. These include increased sea-surface temperature coupled with dwindling arctic ice and elevated storm hydrodynamics. The analysis further reveals that the coastline along the eastern portion of the hamlet, where the majority of the population reside, is vulnerable to a high rate of shoreline erosion.

  3. Coral reefs as the first line of defense: Shoreline protection in face of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliff, Carla I; Silva, Iracema R

    2017-06-01

    Coral reefs are responsible for a wide array of ecosystem services including shoreline protection. However, the processes involved in delivering this particular service have not been fully understood. The objective of the present review was to compile the main results in the literature regarding the study of shoreline protection delivered by coral reefs, identifying the main threats climate change imposes to the service, and discuss mitigation and recovery strategies that can and have been applied to these ecosystems. While different zones of a reef have been associated with different levels of wave energy and wave height attenuation, more information is still needed regarding the capacity of different reef morphologies to deliver shoreline protection. Moreover, the synergy between the main threats imposed by climate change to coral reefs has also not been thoroughly investigated. Recovery strategies are being tested and while there are numerous mitigation options, the challenge remains as to how to implement them and monitor their efficacy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Drivers of shoreline change in atoll reef islands of the Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvat, Virginie K. E.; Salvat, Bernard; Salmon, Camille

    2017-11-01

    This paper increases by around 30% the sample of atoll reef islands studied from a shoreline change perspective, and covers an under-studied geographical area, i.e. the French Tuamotu Archipelago. It brings new irrefutable evidences on the persistence of reef islands over the last decades, as 77% of the 111 study islands exhibited areal stability while 15% and 8% showed expansion and contraction, respectively. This paper also addresses a key research gap by interpreting the major local drivers controlling recent shoreline and island change, i.e. tropical cyclones and seasonal swells, sediment supply by coral reefs and human activities. The 1983 tropical cyclones had contrasting impacts, depending on the shoreline indicator considered. While they generally caused a marked retreat of the stability line, the base of the beach advanced at some locations, as a result of either sediment reworking or fresh sediment inputs. The post-cyclone fair weather period was characterised by reversed trends indicating island morphological readjustment. Cyclonic waves contributed to island upwards growth, which reached up to 1 m in places, through the transfer of sediments up onto the island surface. However, the steep outer slopes of atolls limited sediment transfers to the reef flat and island system. We found that 57% of the study islands are disturbed by human activities, including 'rural' and uninhabited islands. Twenty-six percent of these islands have lost the capacity to respond to ocean-climate related pressures, including the 'capital' islands concentrating atolls' population, infrastructures and economic activities, which is preoccupying under climate change.

  5. Decadal changes in the land use/land cover and shoreline along the coastal districts of southern Gujarat, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, A; Balaji, R

    2015-07-01

    The coastal zone along the districts of Surat, Navsari, and Valsad in southern Gujarat, India, is reported to be facing serious environmental challenges in the form of shoreline erosion, wetland loss, and man-made encroachments. This study assesses the decadal land use/ land cover (LULC) changes in these three districts for the years 1990, 2001, and 2014 using satellite datasets of Landsat TM, ETM, and OLI. The LULC changes are identified by using band ratios as a pre-classification step, followed by implementation of hybrid classification (a combination of supervised and unsupervised classification). An accuracy assessment is carried out for each dataset, and the overall accuracy ranges from 90 to 95%. It is observed that the spatial extents of aquaculture, urban built-up, and barren classes have appreciated over time, whereas the coverage of mudflats has depreciated due to rapid urbanization. The changes in the shoreline of these districts have also been analyzed for the same years, and significant changes are found in the form of shoreline erosion. The LULC maps prepared as well as the shoreline change analysis done for this study area will enable the local decision makers to adopt better land-use planning and shoreline protection measures, which will further aid in sustainable future developments in this region.

  6. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-01-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  7. a Study on Variations of Shoreline Changes and Temporal-Spatial Potentiality for Cloud Seeding at Urumia Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agha Taher, R.; Jafari, M.; Fallah, M.; Alavi, A.

    2015-12-01

    Protecting the living environment has become one of the greatest human concerns; sudden increase of population, industry and technology development, unrestrained over consumption of the citizens and climate changes, have all caused many problems for mankind. Shores are special zones that are in contact with three Atmosphere, Hydrosphere and Lithosphere environments of earth. Shore lines are of the most important linear features of the earth's surface which have an animated and alive nature. In this regard, optimized management of the shores and environmental protection for stable development require observing the shorelines and their variations. Protection of shorelines within appropriate time periods is of high importance for the purpose of optimized management of the shores. The twenty first century has been called the era of information explosion. A time that, through benefits of new technologies, information experts attempt to generate more and up to date information in various fields and to provide them for managers and decision makers in order to be considered for future planning and also to assist the planners to arrange and set a comprehensive plan. Aerial images and remote sensing technology are economic methods to acquire the required data. Such methods are free from common time and place limitations in survey based methods. Among remote sensing data, the ones acquired from optical images have several benefits which include low cost, interpretation simplicity and ease of access. That is why most of the researches concerning extraction of shorelines are practiced using optical images. On the other hand, wide range coverage of satellite images along with rapid access to them caused these images to be used extensively for extracting the shorelines. The attempt in this research is to use satellite images and their application in order to study variations of the shorelines. Thus, for this purpose, Landsat satellite images from TM and ETM+ sensors in the 35

  8. A STUDY ON VARIATIONS OF SHORELINE CHANGES AND TEMPORAL-SPATIAL POTENTIALITY FOR CLOUD SEEDING AT URUMIA LAKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Agha Taher

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Protecting the living environment has become one of the greatest human concerns; sudden increase of population, industry and technology development, unrestrained over consumption of the citizens and climate changes, have all caused many problems for mankind. Shores are special zones that are in contact with three Atmosphere, Hydrosphere and Lithosphere environments of earth. Shore lines are of the most important linear features of the earth’s surface which have an animated and alive nature. In this regard, optimized management of the shores and environmental protection for stable development require observing the shorelines and their variations. Protection of shorelines within appropriate time periods is of high importance for the purpose of optimized management of the shores. The twenty first century has been called the era of information explosion. A time that, through benefits of new technologies, information experts attempt to generate more and up to date information in various fields and to provide them for managers and decision makers in order to be considered for future planning and also to assist the planners to arrange and set a comprehensive plan. Aerial images and remote sensing technology are economic methods to acquire the required data. Such methods are free from common time and place limitations in survey based methods. Among remote sensing data, the ones acquired from optical images have several benefits which include low cost, interpretation simplicity and ease of access. That is why most of the researches concerning extraction of shorelines are practiced using optical images. On the other hand, wide range coverage of satellite images along with rapid access to them caused these images to be used extensively for extracting the shorelines. The attempt in this research is to use satellite images and their application in order to study variations of the shorelines. Thus, for this purpose, Landsat satellite images from TM and ETM

  9. Anthropogenic effects on shoreface and shoreline changes: Input from a multi-method analysis, Agadir Bay, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aouiche, Ismail; Daoudi, Lahcen; Anthony, Edward J.; Sedrati, Mouncef; Ziane, Elhassane; Harti, Abderrazak; Dussouillez, Philippe

    2016-02-01

    In many situations, the links between shoreline fluctuations and larger-scale coastal change embracing the shoreface are not always well understood. In particular, meso-scale (years to decades) sand exchanges between the shoreface and the shoreline, considered as important on many wave-dominated coasts, are rather poorly understood and difficult to identify. Coastal systems where sediment transport is perturbed by engineering interventions on the shoreline and shoreface commonly provide fine examples liable to throw light on these links. This is especially so where shoreface bathymetric datasets, which are generally lacking, are collected over time, enabling more or less fine resolution of the meso-scale coastal sediment budget. Agadir Bay and the city of Agadir together form one of the two most important economic development poles on the Atlantic coast of Morocco. Using a combined methodological approach based on wave-current modelling, bathymetric chart-differencing, determination of shoreline fluctuations, and beach topographic surveying, we highlight the close links between variations in the bed of the inner shoreface and the bay shoreline involving both cross-shore and longshore sand transport pathways, sediment budget variations and new sediment cell patterns. We show that the significant changes that have affected the bay shoreline and shoreface since 1978 clearly reflect anthropogenic impacts, notably blocking of alongshore sand transport by Agadir harbour, completed in 1988, and the foundations of which lie well beyond the depth of wave closure. Construction of the harbour has led to the creation of a rapidly accreting beach against an original portion of rocky shoreline updrift and to a net sand loss exceeding 145,000 m3/year between 1978 and 2012 over 8.5 km2of the bay shoreface downdrift. Shoreline retreat has been further exacerbated by sand extraction from aeolian dunes and by flattening of these dunes to make space for tourist infrastructure. Digital

  10. Shoreline changes during the last 2000 years on the Saurashtra coast of India: Study based on archaeological evidences

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gaur, A.S.; Vora, K.H.; Sundaresh

    . In this communication an attempt is made to study shoreline and sea-level changes during the last 2000 years on the basis of archaeological evidence. Archaeological excavations undertaken at Bet Dwarka (western most part of India) revealed an interesting cultural...

  11. Shoreline change after 12 years of tsunami in Banda Aceh, Indonesia: a multi-resolution, multi-temporal satellite data and GIS approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugianto, S.; Heriansyah; Darusman; Rusdi, M.; Karim, A.

    2018-04-01

    The Indian Ocean Tsunami event on the 26 December 2004 has caused severe damage of some shorelines in Banda Aceh City, Indonesia. Tracing back the impact can be seen using remote sensing data combined with GIS. The approach is incorporated with image processing to analyze the extent of shoreline changes with multi-temporal data after 12 years of tsunami. This study demonstrates multi-resolution and multi-temporal satellite images of QuickBird and IKONOS to demarcate the shoreline of Banda Aceh shoreline from before and after tsunami. The research has demonstrated a significant change to the shoreline in the form of abrasion between 2004 and 2005 from few meters to hundred meters’ change. The change between 2004 and 2011 has not returned to the previous stage of shoreline before the tsunami, considered post tsunami impact. The abrasion occurs between 18.3 to 194.93 meters. Further, the change in 2009-2011 shows slowly change of shoreline of Banda Aceh, considered without impact of tsunami e.g. abrasion caused by ocean waves that erode the coast and on specific areas accretion occurs caused by sediment carried by the river flow into the sea near the shoreline of the study area.

  12. Spatial and temporal patterns of shoreline change of a 280-km high-energy disrupted sandy coast from 1950 to 2014: SW France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelle, Bruno; Guillot, Benoit; Marieu, Vincent; Chaumillon, Eric; Hanquiez, Vincent; Bujan, Stéphane; Poppeschi, Coline

    2018-01-01

    A dataset of 15 geo-referenced orthomosaics photos was generated to address long-term shoreline change along approximately 270 km of high-energy sandy coast in SW France between 1950 and 2014. The coast consists of sandy beaches backed by coastal dunes, which are only disrupted by two wide tidal inlets (Arcachon and Maumusson), a wide estuary mouth (Gironde) and a few small wave-dominated inlets and coastal towns. A time and spatially averaged erosion trend of 1.12 m/year is found over 1950-2014, with a local maximum of approximately 11 m/year and a maximum local accretion of approximately 6 m/year, respectively. Maximum shoreline evolutions are observed along coasts adjacent to the inlets and to the estuary mouth, with erosion and accretion alternating over time on the timescale of decades. The two inlet-sandspit systems of Arcachon and Maumusson show a quasi-synchronous behaviour with the two updrift coasts accreting until the 1970s and subsequently eroding since then, which suggests that shoreline change at these locations is controlled by allocyclic mechanisms. Despite sea level rise and the well-established increase in winter wave height over the last decades, there is no capture of significant increase in mean erosion rate. This is hypothesized to be partly the result of relevant coastal dune management works from the 1960s to the 1980s after a long period of coastal dune disrepair during and after the Second World War. This study suggests that long-term shoreline change of high-energy sandy coasts disrupted by inlets and/or estuaries is complex and needs to consider a wide range of parameters including, non-extensively, waves, tides, inlet dynamics, sea level rise, coastal dune management and coastal defences, which challenges the development of reliable long-term coastal evolution numerical models.

  13. A multisource approach for coastline mapping and identification of shoreline changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Zaccagnino

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Coastal dynamics are driven by phenomena of exogenous and endogenous nature. Characterizing factors that influence their equilibrium and continuous monitoring are fundamental for effective environmental planning and management of coastal areas. In order to monitor shoreline changes, we developed a methodology based on a multisource and multitemporal approach. A database, related to the Ionian coast of Basilicata region (about 50 km, was implemented by using cartographic data (IGMI data, satellite imagery (SPOT-PX/XS, Landsat-TM, Corona and aerial data covering the period form 1949 to 2001. In particular, airborne data (1 m spatial resolution were acquired during a specific campaign we performed in 2000 and 2001. To obtain the best performance from the available data, we applied a data fusion procedure on visible and thermal information. Different algorithms were tested, such as band ratios and clustering for extracting the coastline. The best results from multispectral data were obtained using a threshold algorithm we devised by exploiting the green, red and NIR bands, whereas for panchromatic data we selected clustering as the more suitable method. Moreover, a GPS survey was performed to evaluate the influence of tidal effects.

  14. Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Hoeke, Ron K.

    2017-10-01

    Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider

  15. Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Hoeke, Ron

    2017-01-01

    Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider

  16. Multi-decadal shoreline changes on Takú Atoll, Papua New Guinea: Observational evidence of early reef island recovery after the impact of storm waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Thomas; Westphal, Hildegard

    2016-03-01

    Hurricanes, tropical cyclones and other high-magnitude events are important steering mechanisms in the geomorphic development of coral reef islands. Sandy reef islands located outside the storm belts are strongly sensitive to the impact of occasional high-magnitude events and show abrupt, commonly erosive geomorphic change in response to such events. Based on the interpretation of remote sensing data, it is well known that the process of landform recovery might take several decades or even longer. However, despite the increasing amount of scientific attention towards short- and long-term island dynamics, the lack of data and models often prevent a robust analysis of the timing and nature of recovery initiation. Here we show how natural island recovery starts immediately after the impact of a high-magnitude event. We analyze multi-temporal shoreline changes on Takú Atoll, Papua New Guinea and combine our findings with a unique set of published field observations (Smithers and Hoeke, 2014). Trends of shoreline change since 1943 and changes in planform island area indicate a long-term accretionary mode for most islands. Apparent shoreline instability is detected for the last decade of analysis, however this can be explained by the impact of storm waves in December 2008 that (temporarily?) masked the long-term trend. The transition from negative to positive rates of change in the aftermath of this storm event is indicative of inherent negative feedback processes that counteract short-term changes in energy input and represent the initiation of island recovery. Collectively, our results support the concept of dynamic rather than static reef islands and clearly demonstrate how short-term processes can influence interpretations of medium-term change.

  17. Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Thieler, E. Robert

    2007-01-01

    Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold

  18. Recent shoreline changes in the Volta River delta, West Africa: the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spit growth has been accompanied by a wave of erosion over the last century of the immediate downdrift sector of the bight coast, endangering the town of Keta. Erosion since the 1960s may have been aggravated by the construction of the Akosombo hydropower dam. The tip of the spit has recently welded to the shoreline, ...

  19. Nile Delta exhibited a spatial reversal in the rates of shoreline retreat on the Rosetta promontory comparing pre- and post-beach protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghoneim, Eman; Mashaly, Jehan; Gamble, Douglas; Halls, Joanne; AbuBakr, Mostafa

    2015-01-01

    The coastline of the Nile Delta experienced accelerated erosion since the construction of the Aswan High Dam in 1964 and, consequently, the entrapment of a large amount of river sediments behind it. The coastline of the Rosetta promontory showed the highest erosion in the Delta with an average retreat rate of 137.4 m year- 1. In 1991, in an effort to mitigate sediment loss, a 4.85 km long seawall was built on the outer margin of the promontory. For additional beach protection, 15 groins were constructed along the eastern and western sides of the seawall in 2003 and 2005. To quantify erosion and accretion patterns along the Rosetta promontory, 11 Landsat images acquired at unequal intervals during a 40 year time span (1972 and 2012) were analyzed. The positions of shorelines were automatically extracted from satellite imagery and compared with three very high resolution QuickBird and WorldView2 images for data validation. Analysis of the rates of shoreline change revealed that the construction of the seawall was largely successful in halting the recession along the tip of the promontory, which lost 10.8 km2 prior to coastal protection. Conversely, the construction of the 15 groins has negatively affected the coastal morphology of the promontory and caused a reversal from accretion to fast erosion along the promontory leeside, where some segments of the shoreline have undergone as much as 30.8 m year- 1 of erosion. Without hard structures, the tip of the Rosetta promontory would have retreated 2.3 km by 2013 and lost 7.2 km2 of land. About 10% of this land is deltaic fertile cultivated farms. Moreover, without additional protection the sides of the promontory will lose about 1.3 km2 of land and the coastline would recede at an average rate of 200 m by 2020. Unless action is taken, coastal erosion, enhanced by rising sea level, will steadily eat away the Nile Delta at an alarming rate. The successful demonstration of the advocated procedures in this study could be

  20. Engaging Local Communities in Arctic Observing Networks: A Collaborative Shoreline Change Risk WebGIS for Alaska's Arctic Slope Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, M.

    2017-12-01

    This study engaged local community stakeholders in Alaska's Arctic Slope Region to develop a web-based shoreline change risk geographic information system (WebGIS) in collaboration with the North Slope Borough and its residents. The value of the effort includes rich spatial documentation of local risks across the vast, remote, and rapidly changing shoreline, and identification of local manager information needs to direct WebGIS development. The study advances our understanding of shoreline change problems from the perspective of local Arctic communities beyond municipal impacts while building decision support. Over fifty local residents in three communities with collective coastal knowledge that extends across the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska and Arctic National Wildlife Refuge shared their perspectives on hard copy maps. Sixteen managers provided usability perceptions of a beta WebGIS with shoreline change susceptibility information summarized at relevant asset locations such as subsistence camps. The hard copy maps with 300 "problem places" were digitized for analysis, which revealed problems across the coastline, especially challenges to boating for subsistence hunting such as shoaling cutting off access and creating hazards. The usability workshop revealed specific information needs including the need to monitor impacts at decommissioned national defense radar sites repurposed by locals to centralize oil and gas activity. These results were analyzed using an Instructional Systems Design (ISD) framework consisting of front-end and formative WebGIS evaluation phases. The front-end evaluation is the local input on hard copy maps, which provided local verification of coastal risks. The formative evaluation is the usability workshop with managers, which informed WebGIS development while promoting user buy-in. In terms of product and process, the local knowledge and information needs collected are significant because they establish local engagement with the

  1. Reservoir shorelines : a methodology for evaluating operational impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawrence, M.; Braund-Read, J.; Musgrave, B. [BC Hydro, Burnaby, BC (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    BC Hydro has been operating hydroelectric facilities for over a century in British Columbia. The integrity and stability of the shorelines and slopes bordering hydroelectric reservoirs is affected by changing water levels in the reservoir, natural processes of flooding, wind and wave action and modification of groundwater levels. Establishing setbacks landward of the shoreline are needed in order to protect useable shoreline property that may be at risk of flooding, erosion or instability due to reservoir operations. Many of the reservoirs in British Columbia are situated in steep, glaciated valleys with diverse geological, geomorphological and climatic conditions and a variety of eroding shorelines. As such, geotechnical studies are needed to determine the operational impacts on reservoir shorelines. Since the 1960s BC Hydro has been developing a methodology for evaluating reservoir impacts and determining the land around the reservoir perimeter that should remain as a right of way for operations while safeguarding waterfront development. The methodology was modified in the 1990s to include geomorphological and geological processes. However, uncertainties in the methodology still exist due to limited understanding of key issues such as rates of erosion and shoreline regression, immaturity of present day reservoir shorelines and impacts of climate change. 11 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

  2. Decadal shoreline changes in the muddy coastline of Ondo State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TEMITOPE D. TIMOTHY OYEDOTUN

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Modifications du littoral décennales dans le l ittoral boueux de l'Etat d'Ondo , Nigeria . Les changements dans les positions du rivage à proximité du littoral boueux de l'Etat d'Ondo (sud - ouest du Nigeria sont étudiés, entre 1972 et 2014. Les mouvements de l'eau (HW rivage haut ont été étudiés en utilisant le système n umérique Shoreline Analyse (DSAS, une extension ArcGIS développé par l'USGS. Les ensembles de données comprend plusieurs éditions de photographie de Landsat et le Nigeria Imageries satellite. le Shoreline délimitées les unes des images année inclus les po sitions de HW, qui ont été calculées à partir du rivage Mouvement net (NSM et End Point Noter (EPR, le taux annuel de mouvement. Les résultats préliminaires montrent que les rivages de Ondo côte État ont connu un mouvement vers la terre constante au cour s des quatre décennies. Ces changements sont attribués à des attaques d'onde, l'augmentation des niveaux des marées dans le golfe de l'Atlantique du Bénin, la récente hausse du niveau de la mer, canalisation de la rivière qui réduisent le transport de sédi ments dans la zone côtière, l'extraction historique probable de sable et d'autres activités anthropiques dans la zone côtière.

  3. Effects of nearshore evaporation rates on the design of seabed gallery intake systems for SWRO facilities located along the Red Sea shoreline of Saudi Arabia

    KAUST Repository

    Dehwah, Abdullah

    2015-10-12

    Feed water to seawater reverse osmosis desalination systems should have a constant salinity with minimal variation. Intake systems that extract water from shallow nearshore areas in arid regions can exhibit significant fluctuations in salinity caused by high rates of evaporation and lack of circulation. Such fluctuations in salinity could inhibit the design, construction, and operation of seabed gallery intake systems located in shallow nearshore areas, such as the Red Sea inner shelf. Water depths range from 0 to 2 m between the beach and the edge of the fringing reef in the optimal locations for the development of seabed gallery intakes along the coast of the Red Sea of Saudi Arabia. The evaporation rate in this area is between 2 and 3 m per year. The bottom consists of mostly a marine hardground containing a thin veneer of unlithified sediment and no significant cover of corals or seagrass. The rather barren nature of the bottom suggests that periodic hypersalinity may contribute to the formation of hardgrounds on the bottom by causing supersaturation of the seawater with calcium carbonate and may limit the growth of corals and grasses. To assess the changes in salinity, a conceptual model was developed which assumes that a shallow circulation cell develops between the shoreline and deeper water offshore. Lower salinity seawater should migrate landward to replace water loss caused by evaporation with seaward moving of high-salinity water occurring along the bottom to balance the flow with ultimate mixing before the reef tract. To test this circulation pattern, a series of sensors were deployed to continuously monitor the water temperature, conductivity, and salinity at the surface and at the bottom during several periods of high air temperature. Surprisingly, the results show very little variation in salinity, despite the very high evaporation loss. The water salinity ranged between 39,000 and 40,000 mg/L with no diurnal variations of significance. Based on the

  4. Shoreline changes and its impact on archaeological sites in West Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenger-Nielsen, R.; Kroon, A.; Elberling, B.; Hollesen, J.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal erosion is regarded as a major threat to archaeological sites in the Arctic region. The problem arises because the predominantly marine-focused lifeways of Arctic people means that the majority of archaeological sites are found near the coast. On a Pan-Arctic scale, coastal erosion is often explained by long-term processes such as sea level rise, lengthening of open water periods due to a decline in sea ice, and a predicted increase in the frequency of major storms. However, on a local scale other short-term processes may be important parameters determining the coastal development. In this study, we focus on the Nuuk fjord system in West Greenland, which has been inhabited over the past 4000 years by different cultures and holds around 260 registered archaeological settlements. The fjord is characterized by its large branching of narrow deep-water and well-shaded water bodies, where tidal processes and local sources of sediment supply by rivers are observed to be the dominant factors determining the coastal development. We present a regional model showing the vulnerability of the shoreline and archeological sites due to coastal processes. The model is based on a) levelling surveys and historical aerial photographs of nine specific sites distributed in the region, b) water level measurements at three sites representing the inner-, middle- and outer fjord system, c) aerial photographs, satellite images and meteorological data of the entire region used to up-scale our local information at a specific settlement scale towards a regional scale. This deals with spatial and temporal variability in erosion and accumulation patterns along the shores in fjords and open seas.

  5. Statistical power to detect change in a mangrove shoreline fish community adjacent to a nuclear power plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, T E; Lynch, P D; Karazsia, J L; Serafy, J E

    2016-03-01

    An expansion is underway of a nuclear power plant on the shoreline of Biscayne Bay, Florida, USA. While the precise effects of its construction and operation are unknown, impacts on surrounding marine habitats and biota are considered by experts to be likely. The objective of the present study was to determine the adequacy of an ongoing monitoring survey of fish communities associated with mangrove habitats directly adjacent to the power plant to detect fish community changes, should they occur, at three spatial scales. Using seasonally resolved data recorded during 532 fish surveys over an 8-year period, power analyses were performed for four mangrove fish metrics (fish diversity, fish density, and the occurrence of two ecologically important fish species: gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) and goldspotted killifish (Floridichthys carpio). Results indicated that the monitoring program at current sampling intensity allows for detection of <33% changes in fish density and diversity metrics in both the wet and the dry season in the two larger study areas. Sampling effort was found to be insufficient in either season to detect changes at this level (<33%) in species-specific occurrence metrics for the two fish species examined. The option of supplementing ongoing, biological monitoring programs for improved, focused change detection deserves consideration from both ecological and cost-benefit perspectives.

  6. Impact of port structures on the shoreline of Karnataka, west coast, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Deepa, N.; Kunte, P.D.

    (GIS) as the location of the shoreline and its historical rate of change can provide important information for the design of coastal protection, plans for coastal development, coastal and social vulnerability study, and the calibration...

  7. The national assessment of shoreline change: a GIS compilation of vector cliff edges and associated cliff erosion data for the California coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl; Reid, David; Borrelli, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector cliff edges and associated rates of cliff retreat along the open-ocean California coast. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Cliff erosion is a chronic problem along many coastlines of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of coastal cliff retreat. There is also a critical need for these data to be consistent from one region to another. One objective of this work is to a develop standard, repeatable methodology for mapping and analyzing cliff edge retreat so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates of cliff edge position and associated rates of erosion can be made at a national scale. This data compilation for open-ocean cliff edges for the California coast is a separate, yet related study to Hapke and others, 2006 documenting shoreline change along sandy shorelines of the California coast, which is itself one in a series that includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast Atlantic coast (Morton and others, 2004; Morton and Miller, 2005). Future reports and data compilations will include coverage of the Northeast U.S., the Great Lakes, Hawaii and Alaska. Cliff edge change is determined by comparing the positions of one historical cliff edge digitized from maps with a modern cliff edge derived from topographic LIDAR (light detection and ranging) surveys. Historical cliff edges for the California coast represent the 1920s-1930s time-period; the most recent cliff edge was delineated using data collected between 1998 and 2002. End-point rate calculations were used to evaluate rates of erosion between the two cliff edges. Please refer to our full report on cliff edge erosion along the California

  8. Integrating millennial and interdecadal shoreline changes: Morpho-sedimentary investigation of two prograded barriers in southeastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, T. S. N.; Tamura, T.; Hudson, J. P.; Woodroffe, C. D.

    2017-07-01

    Prograded barriers are distinctive coastal landforms preserving the position of past shorelines as low relief, shore-parallel ridges composed of beach sediments and commonly adorned with variable amounts of dune sand. Prograded barriers have been valued as coastal archives which contain palaeoenvironmental information, however integrating the millennial timescale geological history of barriers with observed inter-decadal modern beach processes has proved difficult. Technologies such as airborne LiDAR, ground penetrating radar (GPR) and optically stimulated luminescence dating (OSL) were utilised at Boydtown and Wonboyn, in southeastern Australia, and combined with previously reported radiocarbon dates and offshore seismic and sedimentological data to reconstruct the morpho-sedimentary history of prograded barrier systems. These technologies enabled reconstruction of geological timescale processes integrated with an inter-decadal model of ridge formation explaining the GPR-imaged subsurface character of the barriers. Both the Boydtown and Wonboyn barriers began prograding 7500-8000 years ago when sea level attained at or near present height along this coastline and continued prograding until the present-day with an initially slower rate of shoreline advancement. Sources of sediment for progradation appear to be the inner shelf and shoreface with a large shelf sand body likely contributing to progradation at Wonboyn. The Towamba River seems to have delivered sediment to Twofold Bay during flood events after transitioning to a mature estuarine system sometime after 4000 cal. yr BP. Some of this material appears to have been reworked onto the Boydtown barrier, increasing the rate of progradation in the seaward 50% of the barrier deposited over the past 1500 years. The GPR imaged beachfaces are shown to have similar geometry to beach profiles following recent storm events and a model of ridge formation involving cut and fill of the beachface, and dune building in the

  9. Investigating Coastal Processes Responsible for Large-Scale Shoreline Responses to Human Shoreline Stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slott, J. M.; Murray, A. B.; Ashton, A. D.

    2006-12-01

    Human shoreline stabilization practices, such as beach nourishment (i.e. placing sand on an eroding beach), have become more prevalent as erosion threatens coastal communities. On sandy shorelines, recent experiments with a numerical model of shoreline change (Slott, et al., in press) indicate that moderate shifts in storminess patterns, one possible outcome of global warming, may accelerate the rate at which shorelines erode or accrete, by altering the angular distribution of approaching waves (the `wave climate'). Accelerated erosion would undoubtedly place greater demands on stabilization. Scientists and coastal engineers have typically only considered the site-specific consequences of shoreline stabilization; here we explore the coastal processes responsible for large-scale (10's kms) and long-term (decades) effects using a numerical model developed by Ashton, et al. (2001). In this numerical model, waves breaking at oblique angles drive a flux of sediment along the shoreline, where gradients in this flux can shape the coastline into surprisingly complex forms (e.g. cuspate-capes found on the Carolina coast). Wave "shadowing" plays a major role in shoreline evolution, whereby coastline features may block incoming waves from reaching distant parts. In this work, we include beach nourishment in the Ashton, et al. (2001) model. Using a cuspate-cape shoreline as our initial model condition, we conducted pairs of experiments and varied the wave-climate forcing across each pair, each representing different storminess scenarios. Here we report on one scenario featuring increased extra-tropical storm influence. For each experiment-pair we ran a control experiment with no shoreline stabilization and a second where a beach nourishment project stabilized a cape tip. By comparing the results of these two parallel runs, we isolate the tendency of the shoreline to migrate landward or seaward along the domain due solely to beach nourishment. Significant effects from beach

  10. Shoreline response to detached breakwaters in prototype

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khuong, T.C.

    2016-01-01

    An accurate prediction of shoreline changes behind detached breakwaters is, in regard to the adjustment to the environmental impact, still a challenge for designers and coastal managers. This research is expected to fill the gaps in the estimation of shoreline changes by developing new and

  11. Detection of decadal shoreline changes along Dhamara and Maipura coast, Odisha, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    ManiMurali, R.; Dhiman, R.; Jayakumar, S.; Ilangovan, D.; Vethamony, P.

    activities in the area. Keywords: Remote sensing; Erosion; Accretion; Odisha coast; DSAS. 1. INTRODUCTION The coastline of India comprises of variety of habitats and ecosystems such as sandy and rocky beaches, cliffs, water and lagoons to bays.... These changes are attributed to construction of artificial barriers like breakwater, jetties, etc. (Nayak, 1992). The rising number of coastal disasters along the world’s coastlines throws light on the need for better and more efficient methodologies...

  12. Investigating Nonlinear Shoreline Multiperiod Change from Orthophoto Map Information by Using a Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tienfuan Kerh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of extreme weather and overdevelopment may cause some coastal areas to exhibit erosion problems, which in turn may contribute to creating disasters of varying scale, particularly in regions comprising islands. This study used aerial survey information from three periods (1990, 2001, and 2010 and used graphical software to establish the spatial data of six beaches surrounding the island of Taiwan. An overlaying technique was then implemented to compare the sandy area of each beach in the aforementioned study periods. In addition, an artificial neural network model was developed based on available digitised coordinates for predicting coastline variation for 2015 and 2020. An onsite investigation was performed using a global positioning system for comparing the beaches. The results revealed that two beaches from this study may have experienced significant changes in total sandy areas under a statistical 95% confidence interval. The proposed method and the result of this study may provide a valuable reference in follow-up research and applications.

  13. Automated Techniques for Quantification of Coastline Change Rates using Landsat Imagery along Caofeidian, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, Di; Li, Ziwei; Liu, Zhaoqin; Yu, Yang

    2014-01-01

    This paper focuses on automated extraction and monitoring of coastlines by remote sensing techniques using multi-temporal Landsat imagery along Caofeidian, China. Caofeidian, as one of the active economic regions in China, has experienced dramatic change due to enhanced human activities, such as land reclamation. These processes have caused morphological changes of the Caofeidian shoreline. In this study, shoreline extraction and change analysis are researched. An algorithm based on image texture and mathematical morphology is proposed to automate coastline extraction. We tested this approach and found that it's capable of extracting coastlines from TM and ETM+ images with little human modifications. Then, the detected coastline vectors are imported into Arcgis software, and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) is used to calculate the change rate (the end point rate and linear regression rate). The results show that in some parts of the research area, remarkable coastline changes are observed, especially the accretion rate. The abnormal accretion is mostly attributed to the large-scale land reclamation during 2003 and 2004 in Caofeidian. So we can conclude that various construction projects, especially the land reclamation project, have made Caofeidian shorelines change greatly, far above the normal

  14. Automated Techniques for Quantification of Coastline Change Rates using Landsat Imagery along Caofeidian, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Di; Li, Ziwei; Liu, Zhaoqin; Yu, Yang

    2014-03-01

    This paper focuses on automated extraction and monitoring of coastlines by remote sensing techniques using multi-temporal Landsat imagery along Caofeidian, China. Caofeidian, as one of the active economic regions in China, has experienced dramatic change due to enhanced human activities, such as land reclamation. These processes have caused morphological changes of the Caofeidian shoreline. In this study, shoreline extraction and change analysis are researched. An algorithm based on image texture and mathematical morphology is proposed to automate coastline extraction. We tested this approach and found that it's capable of extracting coastlines from TM and ETM+ images with little human modifications. Then, the detected coastline vectors are imported into Arcgis software, and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) is used to calculate the change rate (the end point rate and linear regression rate). The results show that in some parts of the research area, remarkable coastline changes are observed, especially the accretion rate. The abnormal accretion is mostly attributed to the large-scale land reclamation during 2003 and 2004 in Caofeidian. So we can conclude that various construction projects, especially the land reclamation project, have made Caofeidian shorelines change greatly, far above the normal.

  15. A numerical shoreline model for shorelines with large curvature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    orthogonal horizontal directions are used. The volume error in the sediment continuity equation which is thereby introduced is removed through an iterative procedure. The model treats the shoreline changes by computing the sediment transport in a 2D coastal area model, and then integrating the sediment...

  16. Historical sediment budget and present-day catchment-shoreline coupling at Twofold Bay, southeastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, T.; Oliver, T.; Hudson, J.; Woodroffe, C. D.

    2017-12-01

    Considering projected impacts of sea-level rise in the 21st century on sandy shorelines, an understanding of long-term sediment budget for individual beaches or coastal compartments supports assessments of shoreline stability. We examined a low-lying coastal beach-ridge barrier in Twofold Bay using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating , airborne LiDAR, sedimentological analysis and seismic data to assess changes in rates of sediment supply to this shoreline through time. Calculations of barrier volume, Twofold Bay bay-floor sediment volume and estimates of sediment delivery from a proximal river system provide a broad-scale assessment of past-sediment budget. Between ca. 7500 years ago and 1500 years ago, sources of sediment for shoreline progradation at Boydtown were bay-floor sediments either inherited or moved into the embayment during late-stage transgression. Progradation rate between ca. 7500-1500 years ago was 0.16 m/yr with subaerial barrier volume accumulating at 0.46 m3/m/yr. Between ca. 1500 years and present day, the Towamba River to the south has delivered additional sediment to the Boydtown shoreline more than doubling shoreline progradation rate to 0.65 m/yr and subaerial barrier accumulation has risen to 1.83 m3/m/yr. The delivery of fluvial sediment from the Towamba River was restricted to the past ca. 1500 years as prior to this, estuary infilling prevented floods delivering sediments to the bay. This recent historical coupling of river sand supply and shoreline progradation rate implies that anthropogenic modifications to the Towamba River catchment such as river damming, or climatic changes reducing rainfall or runoff, would negatively impact the Boydtown Beach shoreline. Conversely increased rainfall or deforestation may increase sediment discharge due to upstream erosion. The Boydtown shoreline within Twofold Bay may be able to maintain its current position in the coming century if fluvial sediment delivery continues. The fact that

  17. Numerical prediction of shoreline adjacent to breakwater

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mahadevan, R.; Chandramohan, P.; Nayak, B.U.

    Existing mathematical models for prediction of shoreline changes in the vicinity of a breakwater were reviewed The analytical and numerical results obtained from these models have been compared Under the numerical approach, two different implicit...

  18. Oyster reefs as natural breakwaters mitigate shoreline loss and facilitate fisheries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven B Scyphers

    Full Text Available Shorelines at the interface of marine, estuarine and terrestrial biomes are among the most degraded and threatened habitats in the coastal zone because of their sensitivity to sea level rise, storms and increased human utilization. Previous efforts to protect shorelines have largely involved constructing bulkheads and seawalls which can detrimentally affect nearshore habitats. Recently, efforts have shifted towards "living shoreline" approaches that include biogenic breakwater reefs. Our study experimentally tested the efficacy of breakwater reefs constructed of oyster shell for protecting eroding coastal shorelines and their effect on nearshore fish and shellfish communities. Along two different stretches of eroding shoreline, we created replicated pairs of subtidal breakwater reefs and established unaltered reference areas as controls. At both sites we measured shoreline and bathymetric change and quantified oyster recruitment, fish and mobile macro-invertebrate abundances. Breakwater reef treatments mitigated shoreline retreat by more than 40% at one site, but overall vegetation retreat and erosion rates were high across all treatments and at both sites. Oyster settlement and subsequent survival were observed at both sites, with mean adult densities reaching more than eighty oysters m(-2 at one site. We found the corridor between intertidal marsh and oyster reef breakwaters supported higher abundances and different communities of fishes than control plots without oyster reef habitat. Among the fishes and mobile invertebrates that appeared to be strongly enhanced were several economically-important species. Blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus were the most clearly enhanced (+297% by the presence of breakwater reefs, while red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus (+108%, spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus (+88% and flounder (Paralichthys sp. (+79% also benefited. Although the vertical relief of the breakwater reefs was reduced over the course of our study

  19. Variability and correlations of shoreline and dunes on the southern Baltic coast (CRS Lubiatowo, Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbigniew Pruszak

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the results of field investigations into the evolution of the shoreline and dune toe positions in a multi-bar,dissipative coastal zone. The correlations between the changes in the shoreline and the dune toe range from -0.4 to 0.8. It is most often the case that the dune toe is stable while the shoreline moves. Consistent cross-shore migration is slightly more likelyto happen than the divergent or convergent movements of both lines. Shoreline retreat and advance attain respective rates of 0.7 m day-1 and 0.4 m day-1. Deep-water wave energy of about 50 kJ m-1 constitutes the boundary between shore accumulation and erosion.

  20. Effects of nearshore evaporation rates on the design of seabed gallery intake systems for SWRO facilities located along the Red Sea shoreline of Saudi Arabia

    KAUST Repository

    Dehwah, Abdullah; Jadoon, Khan; Almashharawi, Samir; Missimer, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    circulation cell develops between the shoreline and deeper water offshore. Lower salinity seawater should migrate landward to replace water loss caused by evaporation with seaward moving of high-salinity water occurring along the bottom to balance the flow

  1. Cuspate Shoreline Morphology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McWilliams, Brandon

    2005-01-01

    Large beach cusps with wavelengths O(200m), sometimes termed mega-cusps, were measured along 18km of the Southern Monterey Bay coastline from October 2004 to April 2005 to investigate the cuspate shoreline response to rip current systems...

  2. Using Shoreline Video Assessment for coastal planning and restoration in the context of climate change in Kien Giang, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Cuong, Chu; Russell, Michael; Brown, Sharon; Dart, Peter

    2015-06-01

    Kien Giang, bordering Cambodia in the Mekong River Delta, is one of the two most vulnerable provinces in the region to coastal erosion and flooding. Coastal protection can conflict with current land use and economic development activities. The conditions of the mangrove forest and mainland coastline of the Kien Giang province were assessed using the Shoreline Video Assessment Method (SVAM) backed up with information from satellite images. Half of the 206 km Kien Giang coastline has been eroded or is being eroded. Protective mangrove forests naturally occurred in 74% of the coastline but have been under threat from illegal cutting, erosion and coastal retreat. Accurate information on the state of the coastline and mangrove forest health provided invaluable data for developing a new coastal rehabilitation plan to guard against future sea level rise. In contrast to the current boundary management of land and natural resources, this plan divided the provincial coastline into 19 sections based on the landscape condition and exposure to erosion. Priority strategic actions for erosion management, mangrove restoration and sustainable livelihood development for local communities for each section of coast were developed based on an integrated cross sectoral approach and practical experience in the Conservation and Development of the Kien Giang Biosphere Reserve Project.

  3. Impacts of shoreline erosion on coastal ecosystems in Songkhla Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nipaporn Chusrinuan

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Songkhla Province is located on the eastern coast of the southern Thai Peninsula, bordering the Gulf of Thailand for approximately 107 km. Most of the basin’s foreshores have been extensively developed for housing, tourism and shrimp farming. The beaches are under deteriorating impacts, often causing sediment transport which leads to an unnaturally high erosion rate. This natural phenomenon is considered to be a critical problem in the coastal areas affected by the hazard of coastal infrastructure and reduced beach esthetics for recreation. In this study, shoreline changes were compared between 1975 and 2006 using aerial photographs and Landsat imageries using Geographic Information System (GIS. The results revealed that 18.5 km2 of the coastal areas were altered during the period. Of this, 17.3 km2 suffered erosion and 1.2 km2were subjected to accretion. The most significant changes occurred between 1975-2006. Shoreline erosion was found at Ban Paktrae, Ranot District, with an average erosion rate of 5.3 m/year, while accretion occurred at Laem Samila, MuangSongkhla District with an average accretion rate of 2.04 m/year. The occurrences of shoreline erosion have contributed to the degradation of coastal soil and water quality, destruction of beach and mangrove forests, loss of human settlements and livelihood.These processes have led to deterioration of the quality of life of the residents. Prevention and mitigation measures to lessen economic and social impacts due to shoreline erosion are discussed.

  4. Coastline changes in relation to longshore sediment transport and human impact, along the shoreline of Kato Achaia (NW Peloponnese, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. POULOS

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available Coastal configuration depends upon the equilibrium between available sediment budget and prevailing nearshore wave and current conditions. Human activities often disturb this natural equilibrium by altering the sources of beach material and littoral drift pattern. In the coastal zone of NW Peloponnese, an essentially tideless environment, the oblique approach of wind-induced waves implies an overall longshore drift from east to west. On an annual basis, the potential longshore sediment transport rates at the different sections of the study area (Kato Achaia is estimated to vary between 0.02 10-3 m3/s and 5 103 m3/s and to fluctuate seasonally. The construction of a port and the extraction of aggregates from the R. Peiros have changed significantly the pattern of sediment transport inducing dramatic changes on coastline configuration; thus, the part of the coastline west to the port had retreated as much as 70 m eliminating a touristic beach, while the entrance of the port was silted inhibiting navigation. Coastal engineering measures, such as modification of port-breakwaters and construction of groins have had only minimal contribution in beach recovery. Hence, coastal management plans should consider this dynamic equilibrium and protect the natural coastal system from the arbitrary human activities.

  5. Utilizing topobathy LIDAR datasets to identify shoreline variations and to direct charting updates in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gremillion, S. L.; Wright, S. L.

    2017-12-01

    Topographic and bathymetric light detection and ranging (LIDAR), remote sensing tools used to measure vertical elevations, are commonly employed to monitor shoreline fluctuations. Many of these publicly available datasets provide wide-swath, nearshore topobathy which can be used to extract shoreline positions and analyze coastlines experiencing the greatest temporal and spatial variability. This study focused on the shorelines of Mississippi's Jackson County to determine the minimum time for significant positional changes to occur, relative to currently published NOAA navigational charts. Many of these dynamic shorelines are vulnerable to relative sea level rise, storm surge, and coastal erosion. Utilizing LIDAR datasets from 1998-2015, shoreline positions were derived and analyzed against NOAA's Continually Updated Shoreline Product (CUSP) to recommend the frequency at which future surveys should be conducted. Advisement of charting updates were based upon the resolution of published charts, and the magnitude of observed variances. Jackson County shorelines were divided into four areas for analysis; the mainland, Horn Island, Petit Bois Island (PBI), and a dredge spoil area west of PBI. The mainland shoreline experienced an average change rate of +0.57 m/yr during the study period. This stability was due to engineering structures implemented in the early 1920's to protect against tropical storms. Horn Island, the most stable barrier island, changed an average of -1.34 m/yr, while PBI had an average change of -2.70 m/yr throughout. Lastly, the dredge spoil area changed by +9.06 m/yr. Based on these results, it is recommended that LIDAR surveys for Jackson County's mainland be conducted at least every two years, while surveys of the offshore barrier islands be conducted annually. Furthermore, insufficient LIDAR data for Round Island and the Round Island Marsh Restoration Project highlight these two areas as priority targets for future surveys.

  6. Extended Kalman Filter framework for forecasting shoreline evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Joseph; Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2012-01-01

    A shoreline change model incorporating both long- and short-term evolution is integrated into a data assimilation framework that uses sparse observations to generate an updated forecast of shoreline position and to estimate unobserved geophysical variables and model parameters. Application of the assimilation algorithm provides quantitative statistical estimates of combined model-data forecast uncertainty which is crucial for developing hazard vulnerability assessments, evaluation of prediction skill, and identifying future data collection needs. Significant attention is given to the estimation of four non-observable parameter values and separating two scales of shoreline evolution using only one observable morphological quantity (i.e. shoreline position).

  7. Rate Change Big Bang Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strickland, Ken

    2013-04-01

    The Rate Change Big Bang Theory redefines the birth of the universe with a dramatic shift in energy direction and a new vision of the first moments. With rate change graph technology (RCGT) we can look back 13.7 billion years and experience every step of the big bang through geometrical intersection technology. The analysis of the Big Bang includes a visualization of the first objects, their properties, the astounding event that created space and time as well as a solution to the mystery of anti-matter.

  8. Living Shorelines: Coastal Resilience with a Blue Carbon Benefit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jenny L; Currin, Carolyn A; O'Brien, Colleen; Raffenburg, Craig; Davis, Amanda

    2015-01-01

    Living shorelines are a type of estuarine shoreline erosion control that incorporates native vegetation and preserves native habitats. Because they provide the ecosystem services associated with natural coastal wetlands while also increasing shoreline resilience, living shorelines are part of the natural and hybrid infrastructure approach to coastal resiliency. Marshes created as living shorelines are typically narrow (erosion control and habitat for estuarine organisms has been documented but their capacity for carbon sequestration has not. We measured carbon sequestration rates in living shorelines and sandy transplanted Spartina alterniflora marshes in the Newport River Estuary, North Carolina. The marshes sampled here range in age from 12 to 38 years and represent a continuum of soil development. Carbon sequestration rates ranged from 58 to 283 g C m-2 yr-1 and decreased with marsh age. The pattern of lower sequestration rates in older marshes is hypothesized to be the result of a relative enrichment of labile organic matter in younger sites and illustrates the importance of choosing mature marshes for determination of long-term carbon sequestration potential. The data presented here are within the range of published carbon sequestration rates for S. alterniflora marshes and suggest that wide-scale use of the living shoreline approach to shoreline management may come with a substantial carbon benefit.

  9. Uncertainties in sandy shorelines evolution under the Bruun rule assumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonéri eLe Cozannet

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In the current practice of sandy shoreline change assessments, the local sedimentary budget is evaluated using the sediment balance equation, that is, by summing the contributions of longshore and cross-shore processes. The contribution of future sea-level-rise induced by climate change is usually obtained using the Bruun rule, which assumes that the shoreline retreat is equal to the change of sea-level divided by the slope of the upper shoreface. However, it remains unsure that this approach is appropriate to account for the impacts of future sea-level rise. This is due to the lack of relevant observations to validate the Bruun rule under the expected sea-level rise rates. To address this issue, this article estimates the coastal settings and period of time under which the use of the Bruun rule could be (invalidated, in the case of wave-exposed gently-sloping sandy beaches. Using the sedimentary budgets of Stive (2004 and probabilistic sea-level rise scenarios based on IPCC, we provide shoreline change projections that account for all uncertain hydrosedimentary processes affecting idealized coasts (impacts of sea-level rise, storms and other cross-shore and longshore processes. We evaluate the relative importance of each source of uncertainties in the sediment balance equation using a global sensitivity analysis. For scenario RCP 6.0 and 8.5 and in the absence of coastal defences, the model predicts a perceivable shift toward generalized beach erosion by the middle of the 21st century. In contrast, the model predictions are unlikely to differ from the current situation in case of scenario RCP 2.6. Finally, the contribution of sea-level rise and climate change scenarios to sandy shoreline change projections uncertainties increases with time during the 21st century. Our results have three primary implications for coastal settings similar to those provided described in Stive (2004 : first, the validation of the Bruun rule will not necessarily be

  10. Living Shorelines: Coastal Resilience with a Blue Carbon Benefit.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny L Davis

    Full Text Available Living shorelines are a type of estuarine shoreline erosion control that incorporates native vegetation and preserves native habitats. Because they provide the ecosystem services associated with natural coastal wetlands while also increasing shoreline resilience, living shorelines are part of the natural and hybrid infrastructure approach to coastal resiliency. Marshes created as living shorelines are typically narrow (< 30 m fringing marshes with sandy substrates that are well flushed by tides. These characteristics distinguish living shorelines from the larger meadow marshes in which most of the current knowledge about created marshes was developed. The value of living shorelines for providing both erosion control and habitat for estuarine organisms has been documented but their capacity for carbon sequestration has not. We measured carbon sequestration rates in living shorelines and sandy transplanted Spartina alterniflora marshes in the Newport River Estuary, North Carolina. The marshes sampled here range in age from 12 to 38 years and represent a continuum of soil development. Carbon sequestration rates ranged from 58 to 283 g C m-2 yr-1 and decreased with marsh age. The pattern of lower sequestration rates in older marshes is hypothesized to be the result of a relative enrichment of labile organic matter in younger sites and illustrates the importance of choosing mature marshes for determination of long-term carbon sequestration potential. The data presented here are within the range of published carbon sequestration rates for S. alterniflora marshes and suggest that wide-scale use of the living shoreline approach to shoreline management may come with a substantial carbon benefit.

  11. Numerical Modeling of Shoreline Undulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg

    model has been developed which describes the longshore sediment transport along arbitrarily shaped shorelines. The numerical model is based on a spectral wave model, a depth integrated flow model, a wave-phase resolving sediment transport description and a one-line shoreline model. First the theoretical...... of the feature and under predicts the migration speeds of the features. On the second shoreline, the shoreline model predicts undulations lengths which are longer than the observed undulations. Lastly the thesis considers field measurements of undulations of the bottom bathymetry along an otherwise straight...... length of the shoreline undulations is determined in the linear regime using a shoreline stability analysis based on the numerical model. The analysis shows that the length of the undulations in the linear regime depends on the incoming wave conditions and on the coastal profile. For larger waves...

  12. Shoreline Changes on the Wave-Influenced Senegal River Delta, West Africa: The Roles of Natural Processes and Human Interventions

    OpenAIRE

    Sadio , Mamadou; Anthony , Edward ,; Diaw , Amadou ,; DUSSOUILLEZ , Philippe; FLEURY , Jules; Kane , Alioune; Almar , Rafael; Kestenare , Élodie

    2017-01-01

    International audience; The Senegal River delta in West Africa, one of the finest examples of " wave-influenced " deltas, is bounded by a spit periodically breached by waves, each breach then acting as a shifting mouth of the Senegal River. Using European Re-Analysis (ERA) hindcast wave data from 1984 to 2015 generated by the Wave Atmospheric Model (WAM) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we calculated longshore sediment transport rates along the spit. We also ...

  13. Overview of shoreline cleaning agents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clayton, J.

    1992-01-01

    Chemical cleaning agents may be used to promote release of stranded oil from shorelines for reasons including biological sensitivity of indigenous fauna and flora to the oil, amenity considerations of the shoreline, or concern about refloating of the oil and subsequent stranding on adjacent shorelines. While use of chemical cleaning agents may be appropriate under proper toxic responses in circumstances, certain limitations should be recognized. The potential for toxic responses in indigenous fauna and flora to the cleaning agents must be considered. Enhanced penetration of oil into permeable shorelines following treatment with chemical cleaning agents also is not desirable. However, if conditions related to toxicity and substrate permeability are determined to be acceptable, the use of chemical cleaning agents for treatment of stranded oil can be considered. Chemical agents for cleaning oiled shorelines can be grouped into three categories: (1) non-surfactant-based solvents, (2) chemical dispersants, and (3) formulations especially designed to release stranded oil from shoreline substrates (i.e., shoreline-cleaning-agents). Depending on the specific circumstances present on an oiled shoreline, it is generally desirable that chemical agents used for cleaning will release oil from shoreline substrate(s) to surface waters. Recovery of the oil can then be accomplished by mechanical procedures such as booming and skimming operations

  14. Response of Living Shorelines to Wave Energy and Sea Level rise: Short-term Resilience and Long-term Vulnerability in North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currin, C.; Davis, J.

    2017-12-01

    A decade of research and monitoring of Living Shoreline sites in North Carolina identifies both resilient and vulnerable features of this approach to estuarine shoreline stabilization. We used a wave energy model to calculate representative wave energy along 1500 miles of estuarine shoreline, and observed a linear, negative relationship between wind-wave energy and the width of fringing salt marshes. Proximity to navigation channels (boat wakes) further reduced fringing marsh width. These results provide guidance for Living Shoreline design alternatives. Surface elevation tables (SETs) deployed at the lower edge of both natural fringing marshes and `Living Shoreline' marsh-sill sites demonstrated that while natural marshes were losing surface elevation at an average rate of 6 mm y-1, marsh surface elevation at Living Shoreline sites increased at an average of 3 mm y-1. Marsh vegetation at the lower edge of natural sites exhibited a decline in biomass, while Living Shoreline sites exhibited an increase in upper marsh species and an extension of lower marsh into previous mudflat habitat. These changes provide Living Shoreline (marsh-sill) sites with added resilience to sea level rise, though decreased inundation alters the delivery of other ecosystem services (fish habitat, nutrient cycling). North Carolina lagoonal estuaries have low suspended sediment supply and low topography, and modeling predicts that landward transgression is the primary means by which salt marsh acreage can be maintained under moderate to high sea level rise scenarios. In this region, bank erosion can be important source of sediment to wetland habitats. Further, the association of built infrastructure with Living Shoreline sites portends a future scenario of coastal squeeze, as marsh migration landward will be inhibited.

  15. Monitoring shoreline environment of Paradip, east coast of India using remote sensing

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    ManiMurali, R.; Shrivastava, D.; Vethamony, P.

    -raey et al. 8 used remote sensing for detecting beach erosion and ac- cretion along Damietta Port, Egypt. Narayana and Priju 9 studied the shoreline changes along the central Kerala coast using satellite images. Shoreline-change mapping was carried... and detecting long-term change in the entire coastline. Meijerink 11 and Rao 12 studied the dynamic geomor- phology of Mahanadi delta and problems of coastal dyna- mics and shoreline changes which arose after the construction of Paradip port. Rupali 13...

  16. High and Increasing Shoreline Erosion Rates of Thermokarst Lakes Set in Ice-Rich Permafrost Terrain of the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondurant, A. C.; Arp, C. D.; Jones, B. M.; Shur, Y.; Daanen, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    Thermokarst lakes are a dominant landform shaping landscapes and impacting permafrost on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska, a region of continuous permafrost. Here lakes cover greater than 20% of the landscape and drained lake basins cover an additional 50 to 60% of the landscape. The formation, expansion, and drainage of thaw lakes has been described by some researchers as part of a natural cycle that has reworked the ACP landscape during the Holocene. Yet the factors and processes controlling contemporary thermokarst lake expansion remain poorly described. This study focuses on the factors controlling expansion rates of thermokarst lakes in three ACP regions that vary in landscape history, ground-ice content, and lake morphology (i.e. size and depth), as well as evaluating changes through time. Through the use of historical aerial imagery, satellite imagery, and field observations, this study identifies the controlling factors at multiple spatial and temporal scales to better understand the processes relating to thermokarst lake expansion. Studies of 35 lakes across the ACP shows regional differences in expansion rate related to permafrost ice content ranging from an average expansion rate of 0.62 m/yr where ice content is highest ( 86%) to 0.16 m/yr where ice content is lowest (45%-71%). A subset of these lakes analyzed over multiple time periods show increasing rates of erosion, with average rates being 37% higher over the period 1979-2002 (0.73 m/yr) compared to 1948-1979 (0.53 m/yr). These increased rates of erosion have important implications for the regional hydrologic cycle and localized permafrost degradation. Predicting how thermokarst lakes will behave locally and on a landscape scale is increasingly important for managing habitat and water resources and informing models of land-climate interactions in the Arctic.

  17. County Boundaries with Shorelines (National)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — County boundaries with shorelines cut in (NTAD). The TIGER/Line Files are shapefiles and related database files (.dbf) that are an extract of selected geographic and...

  18. NOAA Coastal Mapping Shoreline Products

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Mapping Shoreline Products from the Remote Sensing Division are primarily for application to the nautical charts produced by NOAA's Office of Coast...

  19. Growth and decline of shoreline industry in Sydney estuary (Australia) and influence on adjacent estuarine sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birch, G F; Lean, J; Gunns, T

    2015-06-01

    Sydney estuary (Australia), like many urbanised waterways, is degraded due to an extended history of anthropogenic activity. Two major sources of contamination to this estuary are discharge by former shoreline industries and historic and contemporary catchment stormwater. The objectives of the present study were to document changes in shoreline land use from European settlement to the present day and determine the influence of this trend on the metal content of adjacent estuarine sediments. Temporal analysis of land use for seven time horizons between 1788 and 2010 showed rapid expansion of industry along much of the Sydney estuary foreshore soon after European settlement due to the benefits of easy and inexpensive access and readily available water for cooling and power. Shoreline industry attained maximum development in 1978 (32-km length) and declined rapidly to the present-day (9-km length) through redevelopment of industrial sites into medium- to high-density, high-value residential housing. Cores taken adjacent to 11 long-term industrial sites showed that past industrial practices contributed significantly to contamination of estuarine sediment. Subsurface metal concentrations were up to 35 times that of present-day surface sediment and over 100 times greater than natural background concentrations. Sedimentation rates for areas adjacent to shoreline industry were between 0.6 and 2.5 cm/year, and relaxation times were estimated at 50 to 100 years. Natural relaxation and non-disturbance of sediments may be the best management practice in most locations.

  20. Driftcretions: The legacy impacts of driftwood on shoreline morphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Natalie; Wohl, Ellen

    2015-07-01

    This research demonstrates how vegetation interacts with physical processes to govern landscape development. We quantify and describe interactions among driftwood, sedimentation, and vegetation for Great Slave Lake, which is used as proxy for shoreline dynamics and landforms before deforestation and wood removal along major waterways. We introduce driftcretion to describe large, persistent concentrations of driftwood that interact with vegetation and sedimentation to influence shoreline evolution. We report the volume and distribution of driftwood along shorelines, the morphological impacts of driftwood delivery throughout the Holocene, and rates of driftwood accretion. Driftcretions facilitate the formation of complex, diverse morphologies that increase biological productivity and organic carbon capture and buffer against erosion. Driftcretions should be common on shorelines receiving a large wood supply and with processes which store wood permanently. We encourage others to work in these depositional zones to understand the physical and biological impacts of large wood export from river basins.

  1. 77 FR 36585 - Postal Rate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-19

    ... Service notice of rate and changes affecting Inbound Air Parcel Post at Universal Postal Union (UPU) rates... United States Postal Service of Filing Changes in Rates Not of General Applicability and Application for... the Postal Service's explanation of Inbound Air Parcel Post (at UPU Rates) provided in the initial...

  2. UAV survey of a Thyrrenian micro-tidal beach for shoreline evolution update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benassai, Guido; Pugliano, Giovanni; Di Paola, Gianluigi; Mucerino, Luigi

    2015-04-01

    shoreline change analysis was performed using the ArcGis 9.3 extension Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), v. 3.2 (Thieler et al., 2005). Transects orthogonal to the shoreline were generated at 100m intervals along the 1,4 km stretch of beach studied. The DSAS allowed the calculation of the rates of erosion/accretion between points, on the basis of the distance between them and the elapsed time, assuming changes to be linear processes. The rate of change of shoreline positions was evaluated at 14 points. The availability of shoreline data of the years 1954, 2000, 2006, 2008 and 2013 allowed to obtain the shoreline evolution trend in the last 60 years. Moreover, the UAV survey allowed to update the shoreline evolution and to obtain the volume of sediment lost by erosion, in order to suggest the locations and the amount of possible replenishments.

  3. NOAA Composite Shoreline - Vectorized Shoreline Derived From NOAA-NOS Coastal Survey Maps and Aerial Photographs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Composite Shoreline is primarily intended for high-resolution cartographic representation of the shoreline. It is a high-resolution vector shoreline based...

  4. CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen SANDU (TODERASCU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The experience of recentyears showsthat it hasa fundamentalroleformation mechanismof the exchange rateinmacroeconomic stabilization. Global economiccrises, oil shockshave shownthe difficultyoffloatingsustainabilitybyparticipants in the system. EuropeanMonetary System, focused onconcertedfloatingcurrenciestoECU, was formedunder the conditionsin which somecountries have adoptedregional monetaryarrangements(EU countries, with suchbasescurrencyregimeshybridthat combinesspecific mechanismsto those offixedratefree floating. This paperaims to demonstratethe important role thatithasthe choice ofexchange rateregimeas abasic elementin thefoundationofmacroeconomic stabilizationinstruments. Consideredan expression of thestateof the domestic economyandinternationalcompetitiveness, the exchange rate is determined bya complex set ofexternal factorsorinternalstabilityisa prerequisite forthe crisis.

  5. Use of synthetic aperture radar for recognition of Coastal Geomorphological Features, land-use assessment and shoreline changes in Bragança coast, Pará, Northern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Souza-Filho Pedro W. M.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR images are being used more extensively than ever before for geoscience applications in the moist tropics. In this investigation, a RADARSAT1-1 C-HH SAR image acquired in 1998 was used for coastal mapping and land-cover assessment in the Bragança area, in the northern Brazil. The airborne GEMS 1000 X-HH radar image acquired in 1972 during the RADAM Project was also used for evaluating coastal changes occurring over the last three decades. The research has confirmed the usefulness of RADARSAT-1 image for geomorphological mapping and land-cover assessment, particularly in macrotidal mangrove coasts. It was possible to map mangroves, salt marshes, chenier sand ridges, dunes, barrier-beach ridges, shallow water morphologies and different forms of land-use. Furthermore, a new method to estimate shoreline changes based on the superimposition of vectors extracted from both sources of SAR data has indicated that the shoreline has been subjected to severe coastal erosion responsible for retreat of 32 km² and accretion of 20 km², resulting in a mangrove land loss of almost 12 km². In an application perspective, orbital and airborne SAR data proved to be a fundamental source of information for both geomorphological mapping and monitoring coastal changes in moist tropical environments.

  6. Power Scaling of the Mainland Shoreline of the Atlantic Coast of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasko, E.; Barton, C. C.; Geise, G. R.; Rizki, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    The fractal dimension of the mainland shoreline of the Atlantic coast of the United Stated from Maine to Homestead, FL has been measured in 1000 km increments using the box-counting method. The shoreline analyzed is the NOAA Medium Resolution Shoreline (https://shoreline.noaa.gov/data/datasheets/medres.html). The shoreline was reconstituted into sequentially numbered X-Y coordinate points in UTM Zone 18N which are spaced 50 meters apart, as measured continuously along the shoreline. We created a MATLAB computer code to measure the fractal dimension by box counting while "walking" along the shoreline. The range of box sizes is 0.7 to 450 km. The fractal dimension ranges from 1.0 to1.5 along the mainland shoreline of the Atlantic coast. The fractal dimension is compared with beach particle sizes (bedrock outcrop, cobbles, pebbles, sand, clay), tidal range, rate of sea level rise, rate and direction of vertical crustal movement, and wave energy, looking for correlation with the measured fractal dimensions. The results show a correlation between high fractal dimensions (1.3 - 1.4) and tectonically emergent coasts, and low fractal dimensions (1.0 - 1.2) along submergent and stable coastal regions. Fractal dimension averages 1.3 along shorelines with shoreline protection structures such as seawalls, jetties, and groins.

  7. Instantaneous Shoreline Extraction Utilizing Integrated Spectrum and Shadow Analysis From LiDAR Data and High-resolution Satellite Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, I.-Chieh

    Shoreline delineation and shoreline change detection are expensive processes in data source acquisition and manual shoreline delineation. These costs confine the frequency and interval of shoreline mapping periods. In this dissertation, a new shoreline delineation approach was developed targeting on lowering the data source cost and reducing human labor. To lower the cost of data sources, we used the public domain LiDAR data sets and satellite images to delineate shorelines without the requirement of data sets being acquired simultaneously, which is a new concept in this field. To reduce the labor cost, we made improvements in classifying LiDAR points and satellite images. Analyzing shadow relations with topography to improve the satellite image classification performance is also a brand-new concept. The extracted shoreline of the proposed approach could achieve an accuracy of 1.495 m RMSE, or 4.452m at the 95% confidence level. Consequently, the proposed approach could successfully lower the cost and shorten the processing time, in other words, to increase the shoreline mapping frequency with a reasonable accuracy. However, the extracted shoreline may not compete with the shoreline extracted by aerial photogrammetric procedures in the aspect of accuracy. Hence, this is a trade-off between cost and accuracy. This approach consists of three phases, first, a shoreline extraction procedure based mainly on LiDAR point cloud data with multispectral information from satellite images. Second, an object oriented shoreline extraction procedure to delineate shoreline solely from satellite images; in this case WorldView-2 images were used. Third, a shoreline integration procedure combining these two shorelines based on actual shoreline changes and physical terrain properties. The actual data source cost would only be from the acquisition of satellite images. On the other hand, only two processes needed human attention. First, the shoreline within harbor areas needed to be

  8. Medium-term shoreline evolution of the mediterranean coast of Andalusia (SW Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liguori, Vincenzo; Manno, Giorgio; Messina, Enrica; Anfuso, Giorgio; Suffo, Miguel

    2015-04-01

    to Garrucha harbor, with values of +2 m/y. Erosion rates ranged from -0.4 m/y (at Playa Casarones, Rubite) and -0.7 m/y (at Playa Castillos de Baños, Granada) to c. -2 m/y (at Punta de los Hornicos, Almeria). The analysis of coastline evolution revealed as the distribution of erosion areas is strictly related to the incorrect design of coastal structures and their negative effects on downdrift areas. Obtained results clearly evidenced as, in order to evaluate the efficiency of emplaced coastal defense structures, a continuous coastal evolution monitoring plan should be implemented. Keywords: coast, shoreline, coastal erosion, rate-of-change, aerial photographs.

  9. Linking Backbarrier Lacustrine Stratigraphy with Spatial Dynamics of Shoreline Retreat in a Rapidly Subsiding Region of the Mississippi River Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, M.; Liu, K. B.; Bianchette, T. A.; Yao, Q.

    2017-12-01

    The shoreline along the northern Gulf of Mexico is rapidly retreating as coastal features of abandoned Mississippi River delta complexes erode and subside. Bay Champagne is located in the Caminada-Moreau headland, a region of shoreline west of the currently active delta that has one of the highest rates of retreat and land loss. As a result, this site has transitioned from a stable, circular inland lake several kilometers from the shore to a frequently perturbed, semi-circular backbarrier lagoon, making it ideal to study the environmental effects of progressive land loss. Analyses of clastic layers in a series of sediment cores collected at this site over the past decade indicate the lake was less perturbed in the past and has become increasingly more sensitive to marine incursion events caused by tropical cyclones. Geochemical and pollen analyses of these cores also reveal profound changes in environmental and chemical conditions in Bay Champagne over the past century as the shoreline has retreated. Through relating stratigraphy to spatial changes observed from satellite imagery, this study attempts to identify the tipping point at which Bay Champagne began the transition from an inland lake to a backbarrier environment, and to determine the rate at which this transition occurred. Results will be used to develop a model of the environmental transition experienced by a rapidly retreating coastline and to predict how other regions of the Mississippi River deltaic system could respond to future shoreline retreat.

  10. Corporate financing and anticipated credit rating changes

    OpenAIRE

    Hung, Chi-Hsiou D.; Banerjee, Anurag; Meng, Qingrui

    2017-01-01

    Firm circumstances change but rating agencies may not make timely revisions to their\\ud ratings, increasing information asymmetry between firms and the market. We examine\\ud whether firms time the securities market before a credit rating agency publicly reveals\\ud its decision to downgrade a firm's credit rating. Using quarterly data, we show that\\ud firms adjust their financing structures before credit rating downgrades are publicly\\ud revealed. More specifically, firms on average increase t...

  11. Early Cambrian wave-formed shoreline deposits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Lars B; Glad, Aslaug Clemmensen; Pedersen, Gunver Krarup

    2017-01-01

    -preserved subaqueous dunes and wave ripples indicates deposition in a wave-dominated upper shoreface (littoral zone) environment, and the presence of interference ripples indicates that the littoral zone environment experienced water level fluctuations due to tides and/or changing meteorological conditions. Discoidal....... During this period, wave-formed shoreline sediments (the Vik Member, Hardeberga Formation) were deposited on Bornholm and are presently exposed at Strøby quarry. The sediments consist of fine- and medium-grained quartz-cemented arenites in association with a few silt-rich mudstones. The presence of well...

  12. Variability and correlations of shoreline and dunes on the southern Baltic coast (CRS Lubiatowo, Poland)

    OpenAIRE

    Zbigniew Pruszak; Rafal Ostrowski; Jan Schönhofer

    2011-01-01

    The paper analyses the results of field investigations into the evolution of the shoreline and dune toe positions in a multi-bar,dissipative coastal zone. The correlations between the changes in the shoreline and the dune toe range from -0.4 to 0.8. It is most often the case that the dune toe is stable while the shoreline moves. Consistent cross-shore migration is slightly more likelyto happen than the divergent or convergent movements of both lines. Shoreline retreat and advance attain resp...

  13. Αutomated 2D shoreline detection from coastal video imagery: an example from the island of Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velegrakis, A. F.; Trygonis, V.; Vousdoukas, M. I.; Ghionis, G.; Chatzipavlis, A.; Andreadis, O.; Psarros, F.; Hasiotis, Th.

    2015-06-01

    Beaches are both sensitive and critical coastal system components as they: (i) are vulnerable to coastal erosion (due to e.g. wave regime changes and the short- and long-term sea level rise) and (ii) form valuable ecosystems and economic resources. In order to identify/understand the current and future beach morphodynamics, effective monitoring of the beach spatial characteristics (e.g. the shoreline position) at adequate spatio-temporal resolutions is required. In this contribution we present the results of a new, fully-automated detection method of the (2-D) shoreline positions using high resolution video imaging from a Greek island beach (Ammoudara, Crete). A fully-automated feature detection method was developed/used to monitor the shoreline position in geo-rectified coastal imagery obtained through a video system set to collect 10 min videos every daylight hour with a sampling rate of 5 Hz, from which snapshot, time-averaged (TIMEX) and variance images (SIGMA) were generated. The developed coastal feature detector is based on a very fast algorithm using a localised kernel that progressively grows along the SIGMA or TIMEX digital image, following the maximum backscatter intensity along the feature of interest; the detector results were found to compare very well with those obtained from a semi-automated `manual' shoreline detection procedure. The automated procedure was tested on video imagery obtained from the eastern part of Ammoudara beach in two 5-day periods, a low wave energy period (6-10 April 2014) and a high wave energy period (1 -5 November 2014). The results showed that, during the high wave energy event, there have been much higher levels of shoreline variance which, however, appeared to be similarly unevenly distributed along the shoreline as that related to the low wave energy event, Shoreline variance `hot spots' were found to be related to the presence/architecture of an offshore submerged shallow beachrock reef, found at a distance of 50-80 m

  14. Living shorelines enhanced the resilience of saltmarshes to Hurricane Matthew (2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Carter S; Puckett, Brandon; Gittman, Rachel K; Peterson, Charles H

    2018-06-01

    Nature-based solutions, such as living shorelines, have the potential to restore critical ecosystems, enhance coastal sustainability, and increase resilience to natural disasters; however, their efficacy during storm events compared to traditional hardened shorelines is largely untested. This is a major impediment to their implementation and promotion to policy-makers and homeowners. To address this knowledge gap, we evaluated rock sill living shorelines as compared to natural marshes and hardened shorelines (i.e., bulkheads) in North Carolina, USA for changes in surface elevation, Spartina alterniflora stem density, and structural damage from 2015 to 2017, including before and after Hurricane Matthew (2016). Our results show that living shorelines exhibited better resistance to landward erosion during Hurricane Matthew than bulkheads and natural marshes. Additionally, living shorelines were more resilient than hardened shorelines, as they maintained landward elevation over the two-year study period without requiring any repair. Finally, rock sill living shorelines were able to enhance S. alterniflora stem densities over time when compared to natural marshes. Our results suggest that living shorelines have the potential to improve coastal resilience while supporting important coastal ecosystems. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  15. Baseline response rates affect resistance to change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroda, Toshikazu; Cook, James E; Lattal, Kennon A

    2018-01-01

    The effect of response rates on resistance to change, measured as resistance to extinction, was examined in two experiments. In Experiment 1, responding in transition from a variable-ratio schedule and its yoked-interval counterpart to extinction was compared with pigeons. Following training on a multiple variable-ratio yoked-interval schedule of reinforcement, in which response rates were higher in the former component, reinforcement was removed from both components during a single extended extinction session. Resistance to extinction in the yoked-interval component was always either greater or equal to that in the variable-ratio component. In Experiment 2, resistance to extinction was compared for two groups of rats that exhibited either high or low response rates when maintained on identical variable-interval schedules. Resistance to extinction was greater for the lower-response-rate group. These results suggest that baseline response rate can contribute to resistance to change. Such effects, however, can only be revealed when baseline response rate and reinforcement rate are disentangled (Experiments 1 and 2) from the more usual circumstance where the two covary. Furthermore, they are more cleanly revealed when the programmed contingencies controlling high and low response rates are identical, as in Experiment 2. © 2017 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  16. Integrated Shoreline Extraction Approach with Use of Rasat MS and SENTINEL-1A SAR Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, N.; Oy, S.; Erdem, F.; Şeker, D. Z.; Bayram, B.

    2017-09-01

    Shorelines are complex ecosystems and highly important socio-economic environments. They may change rapidly due to both natural and human-induced effects. Determination of movements along the shoreline and monitoring of the changes are essential for coastline management, modeling of sediment transportation and decision support systems. Remote sensing provides an opportunity to obtain rapid, up-to-date and reliable information for monitoring of shoreline. In this study, approximately 120 km of Antalya-Kemer shoreline which is under the threat of erosion, deposition, increasing of inhabitants and urbanization and touristic hotels, has been selected as the study area. In the study, RASAT pansharpened and SENTINEL-1A SAR images have been used to implement proposed shoreline extraction methods. The main motivation of this study is to combine the land/water body segmentation results of both RASAT MS and SENTINEL-1A SAR images to improve the quality of the results. The initial land/water body segmentation has been obtained using RASAT image by means of Random Forest classification method. This result has been used as training data set to define fuzzy parameters for shoreline extraction from SENTINEL-1A SAR image. Obtained results have been compared with the manually digitized shoreline. The accuracy assessment has been performed by calculating perpendicular distances between reference data and extracted shoreline by proposed method. As a result, the mean difference has been calculated around 1 pixel.

  17. Exporter Price Response to Exchange Rate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosse, Henrik Barslund

    Firms exporting to foreign markets face a particular challenge: to price their exports in a foreign market when the exchange rate changes. This paper takes on pricing- to-market using a unique data set that covers rm level monthly trade at great detail. As opposed to annual trade ows, monthly trade...... theoretical contributions to the litterature on pricing-to-market and exchange rate pass-through....

  18. Ancient shoreline reconstruction at a Maritime Maya Port in Yucatan, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaijel, Roy; Goodman, Beverly; Glover, Jeffrey; Rissolo, Dominique; Beddows, Patricia; Carter, Alice; Smith, Derek; Ben Avraham, Zvi

    2017-04-01

    Throughout history, worldwide, a major part of the human experience has been to adapt to changing landscapes, and environments. These adaptations can take many forms, sometimes as innovation, manipulation of the conditions, behavioral or technological changes; and in some cases the decision to abandon the area. The northeastern Yucatan peninsula, home of the Maritime maya port site Vista-Alegre, shows signs of such human changes, though little is known about the corresponding landscape and environment. Vista Alegre is located on the meeting point of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, at the north-eastern tip of the Yucatan peninsula, in the back of the Holbox lagoon. The site was inhabited from the 9th century B.C until the mid 16th century A.D., with an apparent two century abandonment phase from the mid 7th to 9th century A.D. A multidisciplinary effort ("Costa Escondida project") has been investigating the life of past Mayan inhabitants and the broader connections of the site to the Maritime Maya trade network. One of the questions that has arisen is what were the mutual influences between the inhabitants to their surrounding environment. In order to answer that question the site's shoreline geomorphology and climate history is being reconstructed for the past 2-3000 years. The reconstruction is based on multiproxy analysis of marine sediment cores and surface samples, combined with archaeological data. The study presented focuses on the shoreline shifts at the site, revealing the complexity, and significant affect of sea level rise on the marine environment of Vista Alegre. This study contributes to our understanding of the site's possible functions, the environmental challenges the local inhabits contended with, and the identification of ancient harboring locations. The results show five depositional phases over the past 2-3000 years. The ancient shoreline maps show a general trend of sea level rise, though with varying rates over time that relates well

  19. COMPARISON OF TWO SIMPLIFICATION METHODS FOR SHORELINE EXTRACTION FROM DIGITAL ORTHOPHOTO IMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bayram

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The coastal ecosystems are very sensitive to external influences. Coastal resources such as sand dunes, coral reefs and mangroves has vital importance to prevent coastal erosion. Human based effects also threats the coastal areas. Therefore, the change of coastal areas should be monitored. Up-to-date, accurate shoreline information is indispensable for coastal managers and decision makers. Remote sensing and image processing techniques give a big opportunity to obtain reliable shoreline information. In the presented study, NIR bands of seven 1:5000 scaled digital orthophoto images of Riga Bay-Latvia have been used. The Object-oriented Simple Linear Clustering method has been utilized to extract shoreline of Riga Bay. Bend and Douglas-Peucker methods have been used to simplify the extracted shoreline to test the effect of both methods. Photogrammetrically digitized shoreline has been taken as reference data to compare obtained results. The accuracy assessment has been realised by Digital Shoreline Analysis tool. As a result, the achieved shoreline by the Bend method has been found closer to the extracted shoreline with Simple Linear Clustering method.

  20. Comparison of Two Simplification Methods for Shoreline Extraction from Digital Orthophoto Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayram, B.; Sen, A.; Selbesoglu, M. O.; Vārna, I.; Petersons, P.; Aykut, N. O.; Seker, D. Z.

    2017-11-01

    The coastal ecosystems are very sensitive to external influences. Coastal resources such as sand dunes, coral reefs and mangroves has vital importance to prevent coastal erosion. Human based effects also threats the coastal areas. Therefore, the change of coastal areas should be monitored. Up-to-date, accurate shoreline information is indispensable for coastal managers and decision makers. Remote sensing and image processing techniques give a big opportunity to obtain reliable shoreline information. In the presented study, NIR bands of seven 1:5000 scaled digital orthophoto images of Riga Bay-Latvia have been used. The Object-oriented Simple Linear Clustering method has been utilized to extract shoreline of Riga Bay. Bend and Douglas-Peucker methods have been used to simplify the extracted shoreline to test the effect of both methods. Photogrammetrically digitized shoreline has been taken as reference data to compare obtained results. The accuracy assessment has been realised by Digital Shoreline Analysis tool. As a result, the achieved shoreline by the Bend method has been found closer to the extracted shoreline with Simple Linear Clustering method.

  1. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of ocean shoreline location on the Virginia barrier islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haluska, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Shoreline change along the Eastern Atlantic shore of Virginia has been studied for the individual barrier islands but not as an integrated system. This study combines the Atlantic shoreline locations for eleven barrier islands obtained from LANDSAT 5, 7, and 8 images. Approximately 250 shoreline locations over a 24-year period from Jan 1990 to Dec 2014 were extracted from the digitized shoreline data at 338 transects. The resulting 338 by 250 matrix was analyzed by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique. The first four principal components (PC) explained 86 percent of the sample variance. Since the data was not detrended, the first PC was the overall trend of the data with a discontinuity in 2004-2005. The 2004-2005 interval included storm events and large shoreline changes. PCs 2 to 4 reflect the effects of El Nino events and tropical and non-tropical storms. Eigenvectors 1 to 4 all show the effects of the nine inlets in the island group. Eigenvector (EV) 1 explains 59 percent of the shoreline spatial variance and shows the largest changes at the northern and southern island ends. EVs 2 to 4 reflect the pattern of EV1 but at sequentially smaller percentages of the spatial variance. As a group, the eleven islands are losing ocean side shoreline. The lone exception is Hog Island. Sea level had the strongest correlation with the shoreline loss trend of PC1. The coefficient of determination was 0.41. The NAO and MEI also correlated with PC1 with correlations of determination of 0.05 and 0.12 respectively. These confidence level for the three factors was better than 99 percent. Sea level also correlated with PC3 and PC4. The PCs as a group show that the year intervals 2004-2005 and 2009-2010 had large effects on the shoreline change pattern for the island group. EVs 1 to 4 had the highest range of shoreline change at the island ends indicating the effect the changes of the inlets have on the adjacent islands. The smaller islands as a group had a higher level

  2. Sedimentation and erosion in Lake Diefenbaker, Canada: solutions for shoreline retreat monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghian, Amir; de Boer, Dirk; Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich

    2017-09-15

    This study looks into sedimentation and erosion rates in Lake Diefenbaker, a prairie reservoir, in Saskatchewan, Canada, which has been in operation since 1968. First, we looked at the historical data in all different formats over the last 70 years, which includes data from more than 20 years before the formation of the lake. The field observations indicate high rates of shoreline erosion, especially in the upstream portion as a potential region for shoreline retreat. Because of the great importance of this waterbody to the province, monitoring sedimentation and erosion rates is necessary for maintaining the quality of water especially after severe floods which are more common due to climate change effects. Second, we used Google Maps Elevation API, a new tool from Google that provides elevation data for cross sections drawn between two points, by drawing 24 cross sections in the upstream area extending 250 m from each bank. This feature from Google can be used as an easy and fast monitoring tool, is free of charge, and provides excellent control capabilities for monitoring changes in cross-sectional profiles.

  3. Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Assist the National Park Service in Monitoring Shoreline Land Cover Change in the Lower Grand Canyon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, C. L.; Phillips, A.; Young, S.; Counts, A.

    2017-12-01

    Sustained drought conditions have contributed to a significant decrease in the volume of the Colorado River in the Lake Mead reservoir and lower portion of the Grand Canyon. As a result, changes in riparian conditions have occurred in the region, such as sediment exposure and receding vegetation. These changes have large negative impacts on ecological health, including water and air pollution, aquatic, terrestrial and avian habitat alterations, and invasive species introduction. Scientists at Grand Canyon National Park seek to quantify changes in water surface and land cover area in the Lower Grand Canyon from 1998 to 2016 to better understand the effects of these changing conditions within the park. Landsat imagery was used to detect changes of the water surface and land cover area across this time period to assess the effects of long-term drought on the riparian zone. The resulting land cover and water surface time-series from this project will assist in monitoring future changes in water, sediment, and vegetation extent, increasing the ability of park scientists to create adaptation strategies for the ecosystem in the Lower Grand Canyon.

  4. Historical Shoreline for Louisiana, Geographic NAD83, NOAA (2001) [shoreline_la_NOAA_1986

    Data.gov (United States)

    Louisiana Geographic Information Center — These data were automated to provide a suitable geographic information system (GIS) data layer depicting the historical shoreline for Louisiana. These data are...

  5. The effect of physical water quality and water level changes on the occurrence and density of Anopheles mosquito larvae around the shoreline of the Koka reservoir, central Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kibret

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Entomological studies to determine the effect of the physical characteristics of mosquito larval breeding water bodies and reservoir water level changes on the occurrence of Anopheles mosquito larvae were conducted in two villages at Koka reservoir in central Ethiopia between August and December 2007. Of the two study villages, Ejersa is located close to the reservoir, and Kuma is 5 km away from it. Data on the type, number and physical characteristics of Anopheles larval breeding habitat, species composition and densities of anopheles mosquitoes in and around the study villages were investigated and recorded. Meteorological and reservoir water level data were compared with availability of Anopheles larval breeding sites and densities. Entomological data, derived from weekly larval collections, showed that Anopheles pharoensis Theobald, Anopheles gambiae s.l. Giles, Anopheles coustani Laveran and Anopheles squamosus Theobald were breeding in the study area. The mean larval density of An. gambiae s.l. in this study was higher in slightly turbid and shallow aquatic habitat than in turbid and relatively deep aquatic habitat. The density of An. pharoensis in habitat with floating vegetation and with relatively shady conditions was significantly higher than that of less shaded aquatic habitat and greater emergent vegetation. There was also a positive correlation between the occurrence of Anopheles larvae with the water and daily minimum atmospheric temperature. Similarly at Ejersa, over the sampling period, there was a positive correlation between falling reservoir water levels and the number of positive breeding habitats. These results confirm that physical characteristics of the water bodies play an important role in the species composition, total Anopheles larval count, and the density of Anopheles mosquitoes. Suitable breeding habitat in the vicinity of the reservoir village was strongly associated with the reservoir. This is particularly

  6. A Collaborative Geospatial Shoreline Inventory Tool to Guide Coastal Development and Habitat Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Gies

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available We are developing a geospatial inventory tool that will guide habitat conservation, restoration and coastal development and benefit several stakeholders who seek mitigation and adaptation strategies to shoreline changes resulting from erosion and sea level rise. The ESRI Geoportal Server, which is a type of web portal used to find and access geospatial information in a central repository, is customized by adding a Geoinventory tool capability that allows any shoreline related data to be searched, displayed and analyzed on a map viewer. Users will be able to select sections of the shoreline and generate statistical reports in the map viewer to allow for comparisons. The tool will also facilitate map-based discussion forums and creation of user groups to encourage citizen participation in decisions regarding shoreline stabilization and restoration, thereby promoting sustainable coastal development.

  7. The changing shoreline of Suriname (South America)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Augustinus, P.G.E.F.

    1978-01-01

    The Surinam coast forms part of the extensive tropical mud coast between the Amazon River (Brazil) and the Orinoco River (Venezuela). It is classified as a low to medium energy coast. A substantially longshore supply of mud originates from the Amazon River. The fine grained sediment (pelite) is

  8. Shoreline changes along the Poompuhar Tranquebar region

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sundaresh; Jayakumar, S.; SanilKumar, V.

    Poompuhar, a flourishing port in the beginning of the Christian era played a major role in maritime activities and cultural expansion in the history of India. The marine archaeological explorations around Poompuhar brought to light the remains...

  9. Semi-automated procedures for shoreline extraction using single RADARSAT-1 SAR image

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Fugura, A.'kif; Billa, Lawal; Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2011-12-01

    Coastline identification is important for surveying and mapping reasons. Coastline serves as the basic point of reference and is used on nautical charts for navigation purposes. Its delineation has become crucial and more important in the wake of the many recent earthquakes and tsunamis resulting in complete change and redraw of some shorelines. In a tropical country like Malaysia, presence of cloud cover hinders the application of optical remote sensing data. In this study a semi-automated technique and procedures are presented for shoreline delineation from RADARSAT-1 image. A scene of RADARSAT-1 satellite image was processed using enhanced filtering technique to identify and extract the shoreline coast of Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia. RADSARSAT image has many advantages over the optical data because of its ability to penetrate cloud cover and its night sensing capabilities. At first, speckles were removed from the image by using Lee sigma filter which was used to reduce random noise and to enhance the image and discriminate the boundary between land and water. The results showed an accurate and improved extraction and delineation of the entire coastline of Kuala Terrenganu. The study demonstrated the reliability of the image averaging filter in reducing random noise over the sea surface especially near the shoreline. It enhanced land-water boundary differentiation, enabling better delineation of the shoreline. Overall, the developed techniques showed the potential of radar imagery for accurate shoreline mapping and will be useful for monitoring shoreline changes during high and low tides as well as shoreline erosion in a tropical country like Malaysia.

  10. Shoreline erosion and decadal sediment accumulation in the Tar-Pamlico estuary, North Carolina, USA: A source-to-sink analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eulie, Devon O.; Corbett, D. Reide; Walsh, J. P.

    2018-03-01

    Estuaries contain vital habitats and it is important to understand how these areas respond to human activities and natural processes such as sea-level rise and wave attack. As estuarine shorelines erode or become modified with hard structures, there is potential for significantly altering the availability of sediment and the filling of coastal systems. This study used a source-to-sink approach and quantified rates of shoreline erosion in the Tar-Pamlico sub-estuary, a tributary of the larger Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System (APES). The average shoreline change rate (SCR) determined using an end-point method was -0.5 ± 0.9 m yr-1 for the Tar-Pamlico. Incorporating bulk density estimates, this contributes 0.6 × 105 tons of fine sediment to the system annually, or after accounting for fluvial input, about 40% of the total sediment supply to the sub-estuary. The role of the Tar-Pamlico as a sink for these sediments was addressed using the radionuclide tracers 210Pb and 137Cs. Radionuclide activities and sediment accumulation rates identified several depositional regions, in particular in the middle of the estuary. Linear sediment accumulation rates ranged from 0.10 ± 0.02 to 0.38 ± 0.02 g cm-2 yr-1, and total storage of fine sediment in the system was 1.6 × 105 t yr-1. It was not possible to confidently discern a change in the rate of shoreline erosion or seabed accumulation. A preliminary budget for fine sediments (grain-size <63 μm) was then calculated to compare erosional sources with sedimentary sinks. Almost all (∼93.0%) of the fine sediment entering the system was accumulated and stored, while only about 7.0% was exported to Pamlico Sound.

  11. Effects of erosion control structures along a portion of the northern Chesapeake Bay shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zabawa, C.F.; Kerhin, R.T.; Bayley, S.

    1981-01-01

    A 6.500-meter reach of western Chesapeake Bay shoreline (lower Mayo Peninsula) lost about 1.1??106 cubic meters of sediment (equivalent to 170 cubic meters lost per meter of shoreline) between 1846 and 1932, when the first aerial photographs show the shoreline already substantially protected by a system of groins and intermittent bulkheading. These structures have eliminated the fastland as a source of erodable material, and have starved the supply of sand for littoral drift, thus limiting the extent of the beaches to the remaining groin fields. Volumes of sediment involved in these impacts are small in the overall sediment budget. Bulkheads produce no deficit in the budget since scouring of the beaches on their seaward sides makes up for the decreased erosion of protected fastland. Groins trap little of the potential littoral drift (computed to be about 104 cubic meters per meter of shoreline per year). The sand supply in the remaining beaches is nearly equivalent to the annual loss of sediment from the entire shoreline system due to the long-term rate of erosion of the shoreline and nearshore between 1846 and 1932. ?? 1981 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  12. Decoupling processes and scales of shoreline morphodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Henderson, Rachel E.; Schwab, William C.; Nelson, Timothy R.

    2016-01-01

    Behavior of coastal systems on time scales ranging from single storm events to years and decades is controlled by both small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes. Improved understanding of coastal behavior at multiple time scales is required for refining models that predict potential erosion hazards and for coastal management planning and decision-making. Here we investigate the primary controls on shoreline response along a geologically-variable barrier island on time scales resolving extreme storms and decadal variations over a period of nearly one century. An empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to a time series of shoreline positions at Fire Island, NY to identify patterns of shoreline variance along the length of the island. We establish that there are separable patterns of shoreline behavior that represent response to oceanographic forcing as well as patterns that are not explained by this forcing. The dominant shoreline behavior occurs over large length scales in the form of alternating episodes of shoreline retreat and advance, presumably in response to storms cycles. Two secondary responses include long-term response that is correlated to known geologic variations of the island and the other reflects geomorphic patterns with medium length scale. Our study also includes the response to Hurricane Sandy and a period of post-storm recovery. It was expected that the impacts from Hurricane Sandy would disrupt long-term trends and spatial patterns. We found that the response to Sandy at Fire Island is not notable or distinguishable from several other large storms of the prior decade.

  13. Shoreline clean-up methods : biological treatments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Massoura, S.T. [Oil Spill Response Limited, Southampton (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    The cleanup of oil spills in shoreline environments is a challenging issue worldwide. Oil spills receive public and media attention, particularly in the event of a coastal impact. It is important to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of cleanup methods when defining the level of effort and consequences that are appropriate to remove or treat different types of oil on different shoreline substrates. Of the many studies that have compared different mechanical, chemical and biological treatments for their effectiveness on various types of oil, biological techniques have received the most attention. For that reason, this paper evaluated the effectiveness and effects of shoreline cleanup methods using biological techniques. It summarized data from field experiments and oil spill incidents, including the Exxon Valdez, Sea Empress, Prestige, Grand Eagle, Nakhodka, Guanabara Bay and various Gulf war oil spills. Five major shoreline types were examined, notably rocky intertidal, cobble/pebble/gravel, sand/mud, saltmarsh, and mangrove/sea-grass. The biological techniques that were addressed were nutrient enrichment, hydrocarbon-utilizing bacteria, vegetable oil biosolvents, plants, surf washing, oil-particle interactions and natural attenuation. The study considered the oil type, volume and fate of stranded oil, location of coastal materials, extent of pollution and the impact of biological techniques. The main factors that affect biodegradation of hydrocarbons are the volume, chemical composition and weathering state of the petroleum product as well as the temperature, oxygen availability of nutrients, water salinity, pH level, water content, and microorganisms in the shoreline environment. The interaction of these factors also affect the biodegradation of oil. It was concluded that understanding the fate of stranded oil can help in the development of techniques that improve the weathering and degradation of oil on complex shoreline substrates. 39 refs.

  14. 47 CFR 76.1606 - Rate change while complaint pending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Rate change while complaint pending. 76.1606... MULTICHANNEL VIDEO AND CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE Notices § 76.1606 Rate change while complaint pending. A regulated cable operator that proposes to change any rate while a cable service tier complaint is pending...

  15. 75 FR 40853 - Postal Rate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-14

    ... exceptional circumstances'' standard, the Commission shall for convenience refer to rate adjustments proposed... increases are evaluated against factors set forth in the Commission's rules. Id. at 10. According to the... Flat-Machinable/Parcels product is renamed Standard Parcels and, as renamed, is divided into Marketing...

  16. Shoreline type and subsurface oil persistence in the Exon Valdez spill zone of Prince William Sound, Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Page, D.S. [Bowdoin College, Brunswick, ME (United States). Dept. of Chemistry; Boehm, P.D. [Exponent Inc., Maynard, MA (United States); Neff, J.M. [Neff and Associates, Duxbury, MA (United States)

    2008-07-01

    The grounding of the Exxon Valdez in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska in the spring of 1989 resulted in the release of 258,000 barrels of Alaska North Slope crude oil into the marine environment. Nearly 800 km of shoreline were oiled to some degree. There was an unprecedented oil spill cleanup effort following the spill. The shoreline surveys of the spill zone were synthesized in this paper in an effort to demonstrate the relationship between shoreline type and persistence of subsurface oil (SSO) residues. Shoreline surveys of surface and SSO indicate rapid initial oil loss with a decline from about 800 linear km of PWS shoreline in 1989 to about 10 km of oiled shoreline in 1992. The period of rapid loss was attributed to natural physical process, biodegradation and cleanup activities that removed accessible spill remnants from shorelines. This was followed by a slower natural average loss rate for less accessible surface and SSO deposits of about 22 per cent per year for the period 1992-2001. This paper emphasized that shoreline type plays a key role in determining SSO persistence. The geology of PWS is complex. Many of the shorelines where SSO persists have armouring layers composed of hard, dense clasts, such as the quartzite boulders and cobblestones that can protect SSO deposits. Eighteen years after the spill, persistent SSO deposits in PWS shorelines remain protected from tidal water-washing and biodegradation by a surface boulder/cobble armour and low sediment porosity. The SSO deposits are in a physical/chemical form and location where they do not pose a health risk to intertidal biological communities and animals. The surveys continue to substantiate that remaining SSO deposits in PWS continue to degrade and go away slowly. 37 refs., 5 tabs., 7 figs.

  17. Measuring Change with the Rating Scale Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludlow, Larry H.; And Others

    The Rehabilitation Research and Development Laboratory at the United States Veterans Administration Hines Hospital is engaged in a long-term evaluation of blind rehabilitation. One aspect of the evaluation project focuses on the measurement of attitudes toward blindness. Our aim is to measure changes in attitudes toward blindness from…

  18. Eureka Littoral Cell CRSMP Humboldt Bay Shoreline Types 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — In 2011 Aldaron Laird walked and kayaked the entire shoreline of Humboldt Bay mapping the shoreline conditions onto 11x17 laminated fieldmaps at a scale of 1' = 200'...

  19. Development of Biotechnical Methods to Control Shoreline Erosion

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mays, D

    1999-01-01

    .... Coconut fiber logs, straw bales wrapped in poultry netting, large round hay bales, and bundled logs anchored to the shoreline were all evaluated for their potential to control wave damage to the shoreline...

  20. What Drives the European Central Bank's Interest-Rate Changes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Henrik; Aastrup, Morten

    We show that the ECB's interest rate changes during 1999-2010 have been mainly driven by changes in economic activity in the Euro area. Changes in actual or expected future HICP inflation play a minor, if any, role.......We show that the ECB's interest rate changes during 1999-2010 have been mainly driven by changes in economic activity in the Euro area. Changes in actual or expected future HICP inflation play a minor, if any, role....

  1. Pass-through of Change in Policy Interest Rate to Market Rates

    OpenAIRE

    M. Idrees Khawaja; Sajawal Khan

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the pass through of the change in policy interest rate of the central bank of Pakistan to market interest rates. The market rates examined include KIBOR, six month deposit rate and weighted average lending rate. More or less complete pass-through of the change in policy rate to KIBOR is observed within one month. However, the magnitude of change in policy rate to deposit and lending rate is not only low but is slow as well. The pass-through to the weighted average lending ...

  2. Archaeological Site Vulnerability Modelling: The Influence of High Impact Storm Events on Models of Shoreline Erosion in the Western Canadian Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O’Rourke Michael J. E.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Much of the Inuvialuit archaeological record is situated along shorelines of the western Canadian Arctic. These coastal sites are at substantial risk of damage due to a number of geomorphological processes at work in the region. The identification of threatened heritage remains is critical in the Mackenzie Delta, where landscape changes are taking place at an increasingly rapid pace. This paper outlines some preliminary observations from a research program directed toward identifying vulnerable archaeological remains within the Inuvialuit Settlement Region. Coastal erosion rates have been calculated for over 280 km of the Kugmallit Bay shoreline, extending along the eastern extent of Richards Island and neighbouring areas of the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula. Helicopter surveys conducted during the 2014 field season confirmed that areas exposed to heavy erosive forces in the past continue to erode at alarming rates. Some of the calculated rates, however, have proven far too conservative. An extreme period of erosion at Toker Point in the autumn of 2013 has yielded a prime example of how increasingly volatile weather patterns can influence shoreline erosion models. It has also provided a case with which to demonstrate the value of using more recent, shorter time-interval imagery in assessing impacts to cultural landscapes.

  3. Decomposing changes in the aggregate labor force participation rate

    OpenAIRE

    Hotchkiss, Julie L.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a simple methodology for decomposing changes in the aggregate labor force participation rate (LFPR) over time into demographic group changes in labor force participation behavior and in population share. The purpose is to identify the relative importance of behavioral changes and population changes as driving forces behind changes in the aggregate LFPR.

  4. The Investors- Reaction to Investment Rating Change Announcements

    OpenAIRE

    Chih-Hsiang Chang; Liang-Chien Lee; Shu-Ling Wu

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates the investors- behavioral reaction to the investment rating change announcements from the views of behavioral finance. The empirical results indicate that self-interest does affect the intention of securities firms to release investment ratings for individual stocks. In addition, behavioral pitfalls are also found in the response of retail investors to investment rating change announcements.

  5. Simulation of shoreline development in a groyne system, with a case study Sanur Bali beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunawan, P. H.; Pudjaprasetya, S. R.

    2018-03-01

    The process of shoreline changes due to transport of sediment by littoral drift is studied in this paper. Pelnard-Considère is the commonly adopted model. This model is based on the principle of sediment conservation, without diffraction. In this research, we adopt the Pelnard-Considère equation with diffraction, and a numerical scheme based on the finite volume method is implemented. Shoreline development in a groyne system is then simulated. For a case study, the Sanur Bali Beach, Indonesia is considered, in which from Google Earth photos, the beach experiences changes of coastline caused by sediment trapped in a groyne system.

  6. Anthropogenic influences on shoreline and nearshore evolution in the San Francisco Bay coastal system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dallas, K.L.; Barnard, P.L.

    2011-01-01

    Analysis of four historical bathymetric surveys over a 132-year period has revealed significant changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar, an ebb-tidal delta at the mouth of San Francisco Bay estuary. From 1873 to 2005 the San Francisco Bar vertically-eroded an average of 80 cm over a 125 km2 area, which equates to a total volume loss of 100 ± 52 million m3 of fine- to coarse-grained sand. Comparison of the surveys indicates the entire ebb-tidal delta contracted radially, with the crest moving landward an average of 1 km. Long-term erosion of the ebb-tidal delta is hypothesized to be due to a reduction in the tidal prism of San Francisco Bay and a decrease in coastal sediment supply, both as a result of anthropogenic activities. Prior research indicates that the tidal prism of the estuary was reduced by 9% from filling, diking, and sedimentation. Compilation of historical records dating back to 1900 reveals that a minimum of 200 million m3 of sediment has been permanently removed from the San Francisco Bay coastal system through dredging, aggregate mining, and borrow pit mining. Of this total, ~54 million m3 of sand-sized or coarser sediment was removed from central San Francisco Bay. With grain sizes comparable to the ebb-tidal delta, and its direct connection to the bay mouth, removal of sediments from central San Francisco Bay may limit the sand supply to the delta and open coast beaches. SWAN wave modeling illustrates that changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar have altered the alongshore wave energy distribution at adjacent Ocean Beach, and thus may be a significant factor in a persistent beach erosion ‘hot spot’ occurring in the area. Shoreline change analyses show that the sandy shoreline in the shadow of the ebb-tidal delta experienced long-term (1850s/1890s to 2002) and short-term (1960s/1980s to 2002) accretion while the adjacent sandy shoreline exposed to open-ocean waves experienced long-term and short-term erosion. Therefore

  7. 42 CFR 413.196 - Notification of changes in rate-setting methodologies and payment rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Notification of changes in rate-setting... NURSING FACILITIES Payment for End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Services and Organ Procurement Costs § 413.196 Notification of changes in rate-setting methodologies and payment rates. Link to an amendment...

  8. Uplift of quaternary shorelines in eastern Patagonia: Darwin revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedoja, Kevin; Regard, Vincent; Husson, Laurent; Martinod, Joseph; Guillaume, Benjamin; Fucks, Enrique; Iglesias, Maximiliano; Weill, Pierre

    2011-04-01

    During his journey on the Beagle, Darwin observed the uniformity in the elevation of coastal Eastern Patagonia along more than 2000 km. More than one century later, the sequences of Quaternary shorelines of eastern Patagonia have been described and their deposits dated but not yet interpreted in terms of geodynamics. Consequently, we i) mapped the repartition of the Quaternary coastal sequences in Argentinean Patagonia, ii) secured accurate altitudes of shoreline angles associated with erosional morphologies (i.e. marine terraces and notches), iii) took into account previous chrono-stratigraphical interpretations in order to calculate mean uplift rates since ~ 440 ka (MIS 11) and proposed age ranges for the higher and older features (up to ~ 180 m), and iv) focused on the Last Interglacial Maximum terrace (MIS 5e) as the best constrained marine terrace (in terms of age and altitude) in order to use it as a tectonic benchmark to quantify uplift rates along the entire passive margin of Eastern South America. Our results show that the eastern Patagonia uplift is constant through time and twice the uplift of the rest of the South American margin. We suggest that the enhanced uplift along the eastern Patagonian coast that interested Darwin during his journey around South America on the Beagle could originate from the subduction of the Chile ridge and the associated dynamic uplift.

  9. A field guide for the protection and treatment of shorelines following an Orimulsion spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E. O.; Sergy, G.

    1997-01-01

    A field guide for use in marine shoreline protection and treatment for Orimulsion was prepared. Orimulsion is a bitumen-based fuel consisting of 70 per cent bitumen and 30 per cent water, stabilized by a surfactant. The guide addresses a wide range of issues related to the protection and cleanup of Orimulsion contamination. Topics covered include the fate, behaviour, persistence and natural removal rates, recommended techniques for shoreline protection, terminology for assessment documentation, and response decision guidelines. The manual covers both forms of Orimulsion, i.e. the non-sticky dispersed bitumen, as well as the tarry residue that results from weathering. 13 refs., 8 figs

  10. Shoreline oil cleanup, recovery and treatment evaluation system (SOCRATES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rusin, J.; Lunel, T.; Sommerville, M.; Tyler, A.; Marshall, I.

    1996-01-01

    A beach cleanup computer system was developed to mitigate the impact of shoreline oiling. The program, entitled SOCRATES, was meant to determine the most suitable cleanup methodologies for a range of different spill scenarios. The development, operation and capabilities of SOCRATES was described, with recent examples of successful use during the Sea Empress spill. The factors which influenced decision making and which were central to the numerical solution were: (1) the volumetric removal rate of oil, (2) area removal rate of oil, (3) length of oil slick removed per hour, (4) volumetric removal rate of oily waste, (5) area of the oil slick, (6) length of the oil slick, (7) volume of liquid emulsion, and (8) length of beach. 14 figs

  11. Wetland shoreline recession in the Mississippi River Delta from petroleum oiling and cyclonic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangoonwala, Amina; Jones, Cathleen E.; Ramsey, Elijah W.

    2016-01-01

    We evaluate the relative impact of petroleum spill and storm surge on near-shore wetland loss by quantifying the lateral movement of coastal shores in upper Barataria Bay, Louisiana (USA), between June 2009 and October 2012, a study period that extends from the year prior to the Deepwater Horizon spill to 2.5 years following the spill. We document a distinctly different pattern of shoreline loss in the 2 years following the spill, both from that observed in the year prior to the spill, during which there was no major cyclonic storm, and from change related to Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall in August 2012. Shoreline erosion following oiling was far more spatially extensive and included loss in areas protected from wave-induced erosion. We conclude that petroleum exposure can substantially increase shoreline recession particularly in areas protected from storm-induced degradation and disproportionally alters small oil-exposed barrier islands relative to natural erosion.

  12. Further ecological and shoreline stability reconnaissance surveys of Back Island, Behm Canal, Southeast Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Young, J.S.; Strand, J.A.; Ecker, R.M.

    1987-09-01

    A diver reconnaissance of the intertidal and subtidal zones of Back Island was performed to catalog potentially vulnerable shellfish, other invertebrates, and marine plant resources occurring at three proposed alternate pier sites on the west side of Back Island. Additionally, a limited survey of terrestrial vegetation was conducted in the vicinity of one of the proposed alternate pier sites to describe the littoral community and to list the dominant plant species found there. Finally, a reconnaissance survey of the shoreline of Back Island was conducted to evaluate potential changes in shoreline stability resulting from construction of onshore portions of the Southeast Alaska Acoustic Measurement Facility (SEAFAC).

  13. Estimating market probabilities of future interest rate changes

    OpenAIRE

    Hlušek, Martin

    2002-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to estimate the market consensus forecast of future monetary policy development and to quantify the priced-in probability of interest rate changes for different future time horizons. The proposed model uses the current spot money market yield curve and available money market derivative instruments (forward rate agreements, FRAs) and estimates the market probability of interest rate changes up to a 12-month horizon.

  14. Engaging a moving target: Adapting to rates of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shayegh, S.; Caldeira, K.; Moreno-Cruz, J.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is affecting the planet and its human and natural systems at an increasing rate. As temperatures continue to rise, the international community has increasingly been considering adaptation measures to prepare for future climate change. However, most discussion around adaptation strategies has focused on preparedness for some expected amount of climate change impacts, e.g. 2 meters sea level rise. In this study, we discuss adaptation to rates of change as an alternative conceptual framework for thinking about adaptation. Adaptation is not only about adapting to amounts of change, but the rate at which these changes occur is also critically important. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal coastal investment in the face of ongoing sea level rise. Sea level rise threatens coastal assets. Finite resources could be devoted to building infrastructure further inland or to building coastal defense systems. A possible policy response could be to create a "no-build" coastal buffer zone that anticipates a future higher sea level. We present a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among various important factors (rate of sea level rise, discount rate, capital depreciation rate, attractiveness of coastal land, etc). For some cases, strategies that combine periodic defensive investments (e.g. dikes) with planned retreat can maximize welfare when adapting to rates of climate change. In other cases, planned retreat may be optimal. It is important to prepare for ongoing increasing amounts of climate change. Preparing for a fixed amount of climate change can lead to a suboptimal solution. Climate is likely to continue changing throughout this century and beyond. To reduce adverse climate impacts, ecosystems and human systems will need to continuously adapt to a moving target.

  15. Comparison of the Success Rates and Haemodynamic Changes of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Comparison of the Success Rates and Haemodynamic Changes of Caudal Block .and Dorsal Penile Nerve Block in Paediatric Day-Case Circumcision. Panda U. Shehu, Abubakar S. Adamu, Samboy Tanimu, Mohammed Tela, Samuelwabada Saniadamu ...

  16. 18 CFR 342.4 - Other rate changing methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Other rate changing methodologies. 342.4 Section 342.4 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY... regard to the applicable ceiling level under § 342.3. (b) Market-based rates. A carrier may attempt to...

  17. Shoreline oiling conditions in Prince William Sound following the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neff, J.M.; Owens, E.H.; Stoker, S.W.; McCormick, D.M.

    1995-01-01

    Following the Exxon Valdez oil spill of March 24, 1989, in Prince William Sound, Alaska, Exxon conducted comprehensive, systematic shoreline surveys in cooperation with federal and state authorities to obtain information on the distribution and magnitude of shoreline oiling and to identify natural and cultural resources requiring special protection. Similar joint surveys were performed during the springs of 1990, 1991, and 1992 on all Prince william Sound and Gulf of Alaska shorelines that were suspected of having remnants of weathered oil and that would benefit from further cleanup. In the springs of 1990, 1991, and 1992, isolated pockets of subsurface oil were found, chiefly in small scattered zones in coarse cobble/boulder sediments in the upper intertidal or supratidal zones. In 1991, about one-third of the subdivisions in Prince William Sound with surface oil also contained some subsurface oil. The areal extent of this subsurface oil declined by nearly 70% between 1991 and 1992, from about 37,000 m 2 to about 12,000 m 2 . Moreover, where subsurface oil remained in 1992, it was present in lesser amounts. Rates of oil removal were greatest on coastal sections treated early in the spring and summer of 1989. Where shoreline treatment was delayed, the subsequent rate of removal of oil from the shore by natural processes was slower. 27 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs

  18. Change in Family Structure and Rates of Violent Juvenile Delinquency

    OpenAIRE

    Fry, Jeannie A

    2010-01-01

    This paper addresses the question: Have the changes in family structure in the U.S. become a catalyst for juvenile delinquency? For this research, I use existing statistics for my three independent variables: divorce rates, rate of working mothers with children under age 18, percent female-headed households. My dependent variable, juvenile violent crime rates, is measured using data from the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention. My control variables consist of the followin...

  19. Combining pre-spill shoreline segmentation data and shoreline assessment tools to support early response management and planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamarche, A.; Owens, E.H.; Martin, V.; Laforest, S.

    2003-01-01

    Several organizations, such as Environment Canada and the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company, are developing or refining pre-spill databases containing information about physical shoreline characteristics. Automated links between these pre-spill shoreline characteristic databases and computerized shoreline assessment tools were recently created by Environment Canada (Quebec and Ontario regions). The tools, which use Geographical Information System (GIS) technology, can be used for planning and documenting support needed for shoreline cleanup operations. A training exercise, designed to evaluate a spill management system integrating the Quebec region pre-spill shoreline database and the ShoreAssess R shoreline assessment system, was conducted at Vercheres, Quebec in October 2002 by Eastern Canada Response Corporation. The testing took place during the planning stage of the early phases of a spill, namely after the first over-flight. The computerized shoreline assessment tools made it possible to evaluate the length and type of shoreline that would potentially be impacted by oil. The tools also made it possible to assess the shoreline treatment methods most likely to be used, and evaluate the probable duration of the cleanup operation. The information would have to be available in time to be considered during the planning activities. The training exercise demonstrated that the integration of the databases is a valuable tool during the early phases of an oil spill response. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  20. The impact of Cyclone Nargis on the Ayeyarwady (Irrawaddy) River delta shoreline and nearshore zone (Myanmar): Towards degraded delta resilience?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besset, Manon; Anthony, Edward J.; Dussouillez, Philippe; Goichot, Marc

    2017-10-01

    The Ayeyarwady River delta (Myanmar) is exposed to tropical cyclones, of which the most devastating has been cyclone Nargis (2-4 May 2008). We analysed waves, flooded area, nearshore suspended sediments, and shoreline change from satellite images. Suspended sediment concentrations up to 40% above average during the cyclone may reflect fluvial mud supply following heavy rainfall and wave reworking of shoreface mud. Massive recession of the high-water line resulted from backshore flooding by cyclone surge. The shoreline showed a mean retreat of 47 m following Nargis. Erosion was stronger afterwards (-148 m between August 2008 and April 2010), largely exceeding rates prior to Nargis (2000-2005: -2.14 m/year) and over 41 years (1974-2015: -0.62 m/year). This implies that resilience was weak following cyclone impact. Consequently, the increasingly more populous Ayeyarwady delta, rendered more and more vulnerable by decreasing fluvial sediment supply, could, potentially, become more severely impacted by future high-energy events.

  1. Multiscale analysis of restoration priorities for marine shoreline planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diefenderfer, Heida L; Sobocinski, Kathryn L; Thom, Ronald M; May, Christopher W; Borde, Amy B; Southard, Susan L; Vavrinec, John; Sather, Nichole K

    2009-10-01

    Planners are being called on to prioritize marine shorelines for conservation status and restoration action. This study documents an approach to determining the management strategy most likely to succeed based on current conditions at local and landscape scales. The conceptual framework based in restoration ecology pairs appropriate restoration strategies with sites based on the likelihood of producing long-term resilience given the condition of ecosystem structures and processes at three scales: the shorezone unit (site), the drift cell reach (nearshore marine landscape), and the watershed (terrestrial landscape). The analysis is structured by a conceptual ecosystem model that identifies anthropogenic impacts on targeted ecosystem functions. A scoring system, weighted by geomorphic class, is applied to available spatial data for indicators of stress and function using geographic information systems. This planning tool augments other approaches to prioritizing restoration, including historical conditions and change analysis and ecosystem valuation.

  2. What drives credit rating changes? : a return decomposition approach

    OpenAIRE

    Cho, Hyungjin; Choi, Sun Hwa

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the relative importance of a shock to expected cash flows (i.e., cash-flow news) and a shock to expected discount rates (i.e., discount-rate news) in credit rating changes. Specifically, we use a Vector Autoregressive model to implement the return decomposition of Campbell and Shiller (Review of Financial Studies, 1, 1988, 195) and Vuolteenaho (Journal of Finance, 57, 2002, 233) to extract cash-flow news and discount-rate news from stock returns at the firm-level. We find ...

  3. Numerical modeling of shoreline undulations part 1: Constant wave climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    integrated flow model, a wave-phase resolving sediment transport description and a one-line shoreline model.First the length of the shoreline undulations is determined in the linear regime using a stability analysis. Next the further evolution from the linear to the fully non-linear regime is described...

  4. Evidence Accumulation and Change Rate Inference in Dynamic Environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radillo, Adrian E; Veliz-Cuba, Alan; Josić, Krešimir; Kilpatrick, Zachary P

    2017-06-01

    In a constantly changing world, animals must account for environmental volatility when making decisions. To appropriately discount older, irrelevant information, they need to learn the rate at which the environment changes. We develop an ideal observer model capable of inferring the present state of the environment along with its rate of change. Key to this computation is an update of the posterior probability of all possible change point counts. This computation can be challenging, as the number of possibilities grows rapidly with time. However, we show how the computations can be simplified in the continuum limit by a moment closure approximation. The resulting low-dimensional system can be used to infer the environmental state and change rate with accuracy comparable to the ideal observer. The approximate computations can be performed by a neural network model via a rate-correlation-based plasticity rule. We thus show how optimal observers accumulate evidence in changing environments and map this computation to reduced models that perform inference using plausible neural mechanisms.

  5. Subcutaneous insulin infusion: change in basal infusion rate has no immediate effect on insulin absorption rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hildebrandt, P.; Birch, K.; Jensen, B.M.; Kuehl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Eight insulin-dependent diabetic patients were simultaneously given subcutaneous infusions (1.12 IU/h each) of 125 I-labeled Actrapid insulin in each side of the abdominal wall. After 24 h of infusion, the size of the infused insulin depots was measured by external counting for 5 h. The basal infusion rate was then doubled in one side and halved in the other for the next 4 h. Finally, 1.12 IU/h of insulin was given in both sides of the abdominal wall for an additional 3 h. The changes in the size of the depots were measured, and the absorption rates for each hour were calculated. During the first 5 h of infusion, the depot size was almost constant (approximately 5 IU) with an absorption rate that equaled the infusion rate. Doubling the infusion rate led to a significant increase in depot size, but the absorption rate remained unchanged for the first 3 h, and only thereafter was a significant increase seen. When the infusion rate was reduced to the initial 1.12 IU/h, the absorption rate remained elevated during the next 3 h. Correspondingly, when the infusion rate was decreased, the depot size also decreased, but the absorption rate remained unchanged for the first 3 h. The results show that a change in the basal insulin infusion rate does not lead to any immediate change in the insulin absorption rate. This should be considered when planning an insulin-infusion program that includes alteration(s) in the basal-rate setting

  6. NOAA's Shoreline Survey Maps - Raster NOAA-NOS Shoreline Survey Manuscripts that define the shoreline and alongshore natural and man-made features

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOS coastal survey maps (often called t-sheet or tp-sheet maps) are special use planimetric or topographic maps that precisely define the shoreline and alongshore...

  7. Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Andrew D.

    2017-11-01

    Record-breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record breaking is changing may be useful in communicating the effects of climate change. A simple methodology designed for estimating the anthropogenic influence on rates of record breaking in a given time series is proposed here. The frequency of hot and cold record-breaking temperature occurrences is shown to be changing due to the anthropogenic influence on the climate. Using ensembles of model simulations with and without human-induced forcings, it is demonstrated that the effect of climate change on global record-breaking temperatures can be detected as far back as the 1930s. On local scales, a climate change signal is detected more recently at most locations. The anthropogenic influence on the increased occurrence of hot record-breaking temperatures is clearer than it is for the decreased occurrence of cold records. The approach proposed here could be applied in rapid attribution studies of record extremes to quantify the influence of climate change on the rate of record breaking in addition to the climate anomaly being studied. This application is demonstrated for the global temperature record of 2016 and the Central England temperature record in 2014.

  8. The evolutionary rate dynamically tracks changes in HIV-1 epidemics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maljkovic-berry, Irina [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Athreya, Gayathri [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Daniels, Marcus [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bruno, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Korber, Bette [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Kuiken, Carla [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ribeiro, Ruy M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Large-sequence datasets provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamics of pathogen epidemics. Thus, a fast method to estimate the evolutionary rate from large and numerous phylogenetic trees becomes necessary. Based on minimizing tip height variances, we optimize the root in a given phylogenetic tree to estimate the most homogenous evolutionary rate between samples from at least two different time points. Simulations showed that the method had no bias in the estimation of evolutionary rates and that it was robust to tree rooting and topological errors. We show that the evolutionary rates of HIV-1 subtype B and C epidemics have changed over time, with the rate of evolution inversely correlated to the rate of virus spread. For subtype B, the evolutionary rate slowed down and tracked the start of the HAART era in 1996. Subtype C in Ethiopia showed an increase in the evolutionary rate when the prevalence increase markedly slowed down in 1995. Thus, we show that the evolutionary rate of HIV-1 on the population level dynamically tracks epidemic events.

  9. Temporal Coordination and Adaptation to Rate Change in Music Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loehr, Janeen D.; Large, Edward W.; Palmer, Caroline

    2011-01-01

    People often coordinate their actions with sequences that exhibit temporal variability and unfold at multiple periodicities. We compared oscillator- and timekeeper-based accounts of temporal coordination by examining musicians' coordination of rhythmic musical sequences with a metronome that gradually changed rate at the end of a musical phrase…

  10. Evaluation of biogas production rate and biochemical changes in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The rate of biogas generation and biochemical changes in pig dung used in a simple mobile biogas digester designed and constructed at the Department of Environmental Technology, Federal University of Technology Owerri, Nigeria were evaluated. Measurable gas production started 4 days after feeding the digester with ...

  11. Simulation of the landfall of the Deepwater Horizon oil on the shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boufadel, Michel C; Abdollahi-Nasab, Ali; Geng, Xiaolong; Galt, Jerry; Torlapati, Jagadish

    2014-08-19

    We conducted simulations of oil transport from the footprint of the Macondo Well on the water surface throughout the Gulf of Mexico, including deposition on the shorelines. We used the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) model General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) and the same parameter values and input adopted by NOAA following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout. We found that the disappearance rate of oil off the water surface was most likely around 20% per day based on satellite-based observations of the disappearance rate of oil detected on the sea surface after the DWH wellhead was capped. The simulations and oil mass estimates suggest that the mass of oil that reached the shorelines was between 10,000 and 30,000 tons, with an expected value of 22,000 tons. More than 90% of the oil deposition occurred on the Louisiana shorelines, and it occurred in two batches. Simulations revealed that capping the well after 2 weeks would have resulted in only 30% of the total oil depositing on the shorelines, while capping after 3 weeks would have resulted in 60% deposition. Additional delay in capping after 3 weeks would have averted little additional shoreline oiling over the ensuing 4 weeks.

  12. Changes in VAT rates during the economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Široký

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available To solve the current economical crisis, there are used various tools of economic policy. Some of them are changes in taxes, particularly changes in the value added tax due to its importance.Value added tax is the most harmonized tax in the single internal market of the European Communities. Although community law defines the basic legal constraints of VAT rules in individual countries, the Council Directive 2006/112/EC on the common system of value added tax, as amended, leaves some areas open for the Member States. One of the main characteristics of VAT is its tax rates which are – while maintaining specified minimal borders – in competency of Member States.Paper illustrates and evaluates the changes in tax rates of individual Member States during the economic crisis and points to their context and consequences.

  13. Climate and shoreline in Sweden during Weichsel and the next 150,000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moren, L.; Paasse, T.

    2001-08-01

    the changes of the subsidence/ uplift rate over time. The download factor is related to the ice load and represents the subsidence/uplift at the time for the maximal subsidence/uplift rate (A T ). The ice thickness is of great importance for the amount of isostatic depression, due to the inertia and slow development of the viscous flow of mantle material the duration of the load is also of importance. To describe the shoreline displacement during the Weichselian and the next 150,000 years download factors (A T ) and times for maximum subsidence uplift (T) have been determined given the postulated ice sheet scenarios. The inertial factor has been determined from Late Weichselian and Holocene observations. The presented scenarios involve great uncertainty. The climate and ice sheet scenario for the Weichselian is based on observations, and the involved uncertainties are related to lack of data and uncertain dating. Lack of knowledge and capabilities to simulate the climate system are the main sources of uncertainty for the future climate and ice sheet scenario. The shoreline displacement scenario is based on a purely empirical model and the assumption that the evolution of the isostatic component always follows the same pattern as observations implies it did since the Late Weichselian. The model takes the crustal thickness into account, but it does not include any physical explanation or expression for the subsidence/uplift. In reality isostatic movement is a complex process affected by the properties of the crust and the mantle material and by the size and duration of the ice load. In spite of the shortcomings of the used models, the scenarios are considered to give an overview of the evolution during the studied periods. Such general descriptions of the evolution, including several complex processes, would have been hard to derive from more complex/realistic models

  14. Observations and modelling of shoreline and multiple sandbar behaviour on a high-energy meso-tidal beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Splinter, Kristen D.; Gonzalez, Maria V. G.; Oltman-Shay, Joan; Rutten, Jantien; Holman, Robert

    2018-05-01

    This contribution describes 10 years of observed sandbar and shoreline cross-shore position variability at a meso-tidal, high energy, multiple sandbar beach. To examine relationships between the temporal variability in shoreline/sandbar position with offshore wave forcing, a simple equilibrium model is applied to these data. The analysis presented in this paper shows that the equilibrium model is skilled at predicting the alongshore-averaged, time-varying position of the shoreline (R = 0.82) and the outer sandbar position (R = 0.75), suggesting that these end members of the nearshore sediment system are most strongly influenced by offshore wave forcing in a predictable, equilibrium-forced manner. The middle and inner bars are hypothesized to act as sediment transport pathways between the shoreline and the outer bar. Prediction of these more transient features by an equilibrium model was less skilful. Model coefficients reveal that these two end members (outer bar and shoreline) in the sediment system act in opposite directions to changes in the annual offshore wave forcing. During high wave events, sediment is removed from the shoreline and deposited in the nearshore sediment system with simultaneous landward retreat of the shoreline and offshore migration of the outer sandbar. While both end member features have cycles at annual and inter-annual scales, their respective equilibrium response factor differs by almost a factor of 10, with the shoreline responding around an inter-annual mean (ϕ = 1000 days) and the outer bar responding around a seasonal mean (ϕ = 170 days). The model accurately predicts shoreline response to both mild (e.g. 2004/05, 2008/09) and extreme (e.g. 2005/06, 2009/10) winter storms, as well as their summer recovery. The more mobile and dynamic outer sandbar is well-modelled during typical winters. Summer onshore sandbar migration of the outer bar in 2005 and 2006 is under-predicted as the system transitioned between a triple (winter) and

  15. Changes in Scottish suicide rates during the Second World War.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Rob; Stark, Cameron; Humphry, Roger W; Selvaraj, Sivasubramaniam

    2006-06-23

    It is believed that total reported suicide rates tend to decrease during wartime. However, analysis of suicide rates during recent conflicts suggests a more complex picture, with increases in some age groups and changes in method choice. As few age and gender specific analyses of more distant conflicts have been conducted, it is not clear if these findings reflect a change in the epidemiology of suicide in wartime. Therefore, we examined suicide rates in Scotland before, during and after the Second World War to see if similar features were present. Data on deaths in Scotland recorded as suicide during the period 1931-1952, and population estimates for each of these years, were obtained from the General Register Office for Scotland. Using computer spreadsheets, suicide rates by gender, age and method were calculated. Forward stepwise logistic regression was used to assess the effect of gender, war and year on suicide rates using SAS V8.2. The all-age suicide rate among both men and women declined during the period studied. However, when this long-term decline is taken into account, the likelihood of suicide during the Second World War was higher than during both the pre-War and post-War periods. Suicide rates among men aged 15-24 years rose during the Second World War, peaking at 148 per million (41 deaths) during 1942 before declining to 39 per million (10 deaths) by 1945, while the rate among men aged 25-34 years reached 199 per million (43 deaths) during 1943 before falling to 66 per million (23 deaths) by 1946. This was accompanied by an increase in male suicides attributable to firearms and explosives during the War years which decreased following its conclusion. All age male and female suicide rates decreased in Scotland during World War II. However, once the general background decrease in suicide rates over the whole period is accounted for, the likelihood of suicide among the entire Scottish population during the Second World War was elevated. The overall

  16. Networking Technologies and the Rate of Technological Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Mitchell

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Network technology is changing rapidly and those adept at ICT analysis need resolve rate of change issues. Developments in networking now are in the direction of heuristic intelligence. Since about 1980, networking techniques have encouraged combining bits of information with imagination cognitively to improve ideas about reality. ICT enterprise projects utilize networking to sustain requisite imagination. Assumptions and misassuptions of project builders are rationally comprehended as networking sustains creative processes. The monopolization of valuable network techniques influences in the direction of esoteric networking. Data presents that substantial knowledge and networking is now occurring globally. As a netaphor, networking

  17. Mind the rate. Why rate global climate change matters, and how much

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambrosi, Ph.

    2006-01-01

    To assess climate policies in a cost-efficiency framework with constraints on the magnitude and rate of global climate change we have built RESPONSE, an optimal control integrated assessment model. Our results show that the uncertainty about climate sensitivity leads to significant short-term mitigation efforts all the more as the arrival of information regarding this parameter is belated. There exists thus a high opportunity cost to know before 2030 the true value of this parameter, which is not totally granted so far. Given this uncertainty, a +2 deg C objective could lead to rather stringent policy recommendations for the coming decades and might prove unacceptable. Furthermore, the uncertainty about climate sensitivity magnifies the influence of the rate constraint on short-term decision, leading to rather stringent policy recommendations for the coming decades. This result is particularly robust to the choice of discount rate and to the beliefs of the decision-maker about climate sensitivity. We finally show that the uncertainty about the rate constraint is even more important for short-term decision than the uncertainty about climate sensitivity or magnitude of warming. This means that the critical rate of climate change, i.e. a transient characteristic of climate risks, matters much more than the long-term objective of climate policy, i.e. the critical magnitude of climate change. Therefore, research should be aimed at better characterising climate change risks in view to help decision-makers in agreeing on a safe guardrail to limit the rate of global warming. (author)

  18. Shoreline Erosion and Slope Failure Detection over Southwest Lakeshore Michigan using Temporal Radar and Digital Elevation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sataer, G.; Sultan, M.; Yellich, J. A.; Becker, R.; Emil, M. K.; Palaseanu, M.

    2017-12-01

    Throughout the 20th century and into the 21st century, significant losses of residential, commercial and governmental property were reported along the shores of the Great Lakes region due to one or more of the following factors: high lake levels, wave actions, groundwater discharge. A collaborative effort (Western Michigan University, University of Toledo, Michigan Geological Survey [MGS], United States Geological Survey [USGS], National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA]) is underway to examine the temporal topographic variations along the shoreline and the adjacent bluff extending from the City of South Haven in the south to the City of Saugatuck in the north within the Allegan County. Our objectives include two main tasks: (1) identification of the timing of, and the areas, witnessing slope failure and shoreline erosion, and (2) investigating the factors causing the observed failures and erosion. This is being accomplished over the study area by: (1) detecting and measuring slope subsidence rates (velocities along line of site) and failures using radar interferometric persistent scatter (PS) techniques applied to ESA's European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellites, ERS-1 and -2 (spatial resolution: 25 m) that were acquired in 1995 to 2007, (2) extracting temporal high resolution (20 cm) digital elevation models (DEM) for the study area from temporal imagery acquired by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), and applying change detection techniques to the extracted DEMs, (3) detecting change in elevation and slope profiles extracted from two LIDAR Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) DEMs (spatial resolution: 0.5m), acquired on 2008 and 2012, and (4) spatial and temporal correlation of the detected changes in elevation with relevant data sets (e.g., lake levels, precipitation, groundwater levels) in search of causal effects.

  19. Probability of detection of clinical seizures using heart rate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Ivan; Manly, B F J

    2015-08-01

    Heart rate-based seizure detection is a viable complement or alternative to ECoG/EEG. This study investigates the role of various biological factors on the probability of clinical seizure detection using heart rate. Regression models were applied to 266 clinical seizures recorded from 72 subjects to investigate if factors such as age, gender, years with epilepsy, etiology, seizure site origin, seizure class, and data collection centers, among others, shape the probability of EKG-based seizure detection. Clinical seizure detection probability based on heart rate changes, is significantly (pprobability of detecting clinical seizures (>0.8 in the majority of subjects) using heart rate is highest for complex partial seizures, increases with a patient's years with epilepsy, is lower for females than for males and is unrelated to the side of hemisphere origin. Clinical seizure detection probability using heart rate is multi-factorially dependent and sufficiently high (>0.8) in most cases to be clinically useful. Knowledge of the role that these factors play in shaping said probability will enhance its applicability and usefulness. Heart rate is a reliable and practical signal for extra-cerebral detection of clinical seizures originating from or spreading to central autonomic network structures. Copyright © 2015 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

  1. Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shangkun Deng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL and genetic algorithm (GA. MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

  2. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

    2011-01-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  3. Research on bioremediation of oil polluted shorelines in Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sveum, P.

    1995-01-01

    Marine bioremediation research in Norway has been directed towards the use of fertilizers on arctic shorelines and ice infested waters. In addition from the focus on fertilizers, the research has paid considerable attention to nutrient dynamics, and the influence of microfauna such as bacterial and fungal grazers on the dynamics of macronutrients. The interactions between microbial and physical processes on the shorelines, between photochemical processes and nutrient dynamics, have also been addressed. 29 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs

  4. A post-Calumet shoreline along southern Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capps, D.K.; Thompson, T.A.; Booth, R.K.

    2007-01-01

    The southern shore of Lake Michigan is the type area for many of ancestral Lake Michigan's late Pleistocene lake phases, but coastal deposits and features of the Algonquin phase of northern Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, and Lake Superior are not recognized in the area. Isostatic rebound models suggest that Algonquin phase deposits should be 100 m or more below modern lake level. A relict shoreline, however, exists along the lakeward margin of the Calumet Beach that was erosional west of Deep River and depositional east of the river. For this post-Calumet shoreline, the elevation of basal foreshore deposits east of Deep River and the base of the scarp west of Deep River indicate a slightly westward dipping water plane that is centered at ???184 m above mean sea level. Basal foreshore elevations also indicate that lake level fell ???2 m during the development of the shoreline. The pooled mean of radiocarbon dates from the surface of the peat below post-Calumet shoreline foreshore deposits indicate that the lake transgressed over the peat at 10,560 ?? 70 years B.P. Pollen assemblages from the peat are consistent with this age. The elevation and age of the post-Calumet shoreline are similar to the Main Algonquin phase of Lake Huron. Recent isostatic rebound models do not adequately address a high-elevation Algonquin-age shoreline along the southern shore of Lake Michigan, but the Goldthwait (1908) hinge-line model does. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  5. Timing of oceans on Mars from shoreline deformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citron, Robert I; Manga, Michael; Hemingway, Douglas J

    2018-03-29

    Widespread evidence points to the existence of an ancient Martian ocean. Most compelling are the putative ancient shorelines in the northern plains. However, these shorelines fail to follow an equipotential surface, and this has been used to challenge the notion that they formed via an early ocean and hence to question the existence of such an ocean. The shorelines' deviation from a constant elevation can be explained by true polar wander occurring after the formation of Tharsis, a volcanic province that dominates the gravity and topography of Mars. However, surface loading from the oceans can drive polar wander only if Tharsis formed far from the equator, and most evidence indicates that Tharsis formed near the equator, meaning that there is no current explanation for the shorelines' deviation from an equipotential that is consistent with our geophysical understanding of Mars. Here we show that variations in shoreline topography can be explained by deformation caused by the emplacement of Tharsis. We find that the shorelines must have formed before and during the emplacement of Tharsis, instead of afterwards, as previously assumed. Our results imply that oceans on Mars formed early, concurrent with the valley networks, and point to a close relationship between the evolution of oceans on Mars and the initiation and decline of Tharsis volcanism, with broad implications for the geology, hydrological cycle and climate of early Mars.

  6. The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selwood, Katherine E; McGeoch, Melodie A; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2015-08-01

    Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  7. Optimal index related to the shoreline dynamics during a storm: the case of Jesolo beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archetti, Renata; Paci, Agnese; Carniel, Sandro; Bonaldo, Davide

    2016-05-01

    The paper presents an application of shoreline monitoring aimed at understanding the response of a beach to single storms and at identifying its typical behaviour, in order to be able to predict shoreline changes and to properly plan the defence of the shore zone. On the study area, in Jesolo beach (northern Adriatic Sea, Italy), a video monitoring station and an acoustic wave and current profiler were installed in spring 2013, recording, respectively, images and hydrodynamic data. The site lacks previous detailed hydrodynamic and morphodynamic data. Variations in the shoreline were quantified in combination with available near-shore wave conditions, making it possible to analyse the relationship between the shoreline displacement and the wave features. Results denote characteristic patterns of beach response to storm events, and highlight the importance of improving beach protection in this zone, notwithstanding the many interventions experimented in the last decades. A total of 31 independent storm events were selected during the period October 2013-October 2014, and for each of them synthetic indexes based on storm duration, energy and maximum wave height were developed and estimated. It was found that the net shoreline displacements during a storm are well correlated with the total wave energy associated to the considered storm by an empirical power law equation. A sub-selection of storms in the presence of an artificial dune protecting the beach (in the winter season) was examined in detail, allowing to conclude that the adoption of this coastal defence strategy in the study area can reduce shoreline retreat during a storm. This type of intervention can sometimes contribute to prolonging overall stability not only in the replenished zone but also in downdrift areas. The implemented methodology, which confirms to be economically attractive if compared to more traditional monitoring systems, proves to be a valuable system to monitor beach erosive processes and

  8. Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, J. Andrew G.; Pilkey, Orrin H.

    2004-11-01

    In the face of a global rise in sea level, understanding the response of the shoreline to changes in sea level is a critical scientific goal to inform policy makers and managers. A body of scientific information exists that illustrates both the complexity of the linkages between sea-level rise and shoreline response, and the comparative lack of understanding of these linkages. In spite of the lack of understanding, many appraisals have been undertaken that employ a concept known as the "Bruun Rule". This is a simple two-dimensional model of shoreline response to rising sea level. The model has seen near global application since its original formulation in 1954. The concept provided an advance in understanding of the coastal system at the time of its first publication. It has, however, been superseded by numerous subsequent findings and is now invalid. Several assumptions behind the Bruun Rule are known to be false and nowhere has the Bruun Rule been adequately proven; on the contrary several studies disprove it in the field. No universally applicable model of shoreline retreat under sea-level rise has yet been developed. Despite this, the Bruun Rule is in widespread contemporary use at a global scale both as a management tool and as a scientific concept. The persistence of this concept beyond its original assumption base is attributed to the following factors: Appeal of a simple, easy to use analytical model that is in widespread use. Difficulty of determining the relative validity of 'proofs' and 'disproofs'. Ease of application. Positive advocacy by some scientists. Application by other scientists without critical appraisal. The simple numerical expression of the model. Lack of easy alternatives. The Bruun Rule has no power for predicting shoreline behaviour under rising sea level and should be abandoned. It is a concept whose time has passed. The belief by policy makers that it offers a prediction of future shoreline position may well have stifled much

  9. Application of Low-Cost Fixed-Wing UAV for Inland Lakes Shoreline Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Templin, Tomasz; Popielarczyk, Dariusz; Kosecki, Rafał

    2017-10-01

    One of the most important factors that influences the performance of geomorphologic parameters on urban lakes is the water level. It fluctuates periodically, causing shoreline changes. It is especially significant for typical environmental studies like bathymetric surveys, morphometric parameters calculation, sediment depth changes, thermal structure, water quality monitoring, etc. In most reservoirs, it can be obtained from digitized historical maps or plans or directly measured using the instruments such as: geodetic total station, GNSS receivers, UAV with different sensors, satellite and aerial photos, terrestrial and airborne light detection and ranging, or others. Today one of the most popular measuring platforms, increasingly applied in many applications is UAV. Unmanned aerial system can be a cheap, easy to use, on-demand technology for gathering remote sensing data. Our study presents a reliable methodology for shallow lake shoreline investigation with the use of a low-cost fixed-wing UAV system. The research was implemented on a small, eutrophic urban inland reservoir located in the northern part of Poland—Lake Suskie. The geodetic TS, and RTK/GNSS measurements, hydroacoustic soundings and experimental aerial mapping were conducted by the authors in 2012-2015. The article specifically describes the UAV system used for experimental measurements, the obtained results and the accuracy analysis. Final conclusions demonstrate that even a low-cost fixed-wing UAV can provide an excellent tool for accurately surveying a shallow lake shoreline and generate valuable geoinformation data collected definitely faster than when traditional geodetic methods are employed.

  10. The Rate of Seasonal Changes in Temperature Alters Acclimation of Performance under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson-Örtman, Viktor; Johansson, Frank

    2017-12-01

    How the ability to acclimate will impact individual performance and ecological interactions under climate change remains poorly understood. Theory predicts that the benefit an organism can gain from acclimating depends on the rate at which temperatures change relative to the time it takes to induce beneficial acclimation. Here, we present a conceptual model showing how slower seasonal changes under climate change can alter species' relative performance when they differ in acclimation rate and magnitude. To test predictions from theory, we performed a microcosm experiment where we reared a mid- and a high-latitude damselfly species alone or together under the rapid seasonality currently experienced at 62°N and the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change and measured larval growth and survival. To separate acclimation effects from fixed thermal responses, we simulated growth trajectories based on species' growth rates at constant temperatures and quantified how much and how fast species needed to acclimate to match the observed growth trajectories. Consistent with our predictions, the results showed that the midlatitude species had a greater capacity for acclimation than the high-latitude species. Furthermore, since acclimation occurred at a slower rate than seasonal temperature changes, the midlatitude species had a small growth advantage over the high-latitude species under the current seasonality but a greater growth advantage under the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change. In addition, the two species did not differ in survival under the current seasonality, but the midlatitude species had higher survival under the predicted climate change scenario, possibly because rates of cannibalism were lower when smaller heterospecifics were present. These findings highlight the need to incorporate acclimation rates in ecological models.

  11. Spatiotemporal shoreline dynamics of Namibian coastal lagoons derived by a dense remote sensing time series approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behling, Robert; Milewski, Robert; Chabrillat, Sabine

    2018-06-01

    This paper proposes the remote sensing time series approach WLMO (Water-Land MOnitor) to monitor spatiotemporal shoreline changes. The approach uses a hierarchical classification system based on temporal MNDWI-trajectories with the goal to accommodate typical uncertainties in remote sensing shoreline extraction techniques such as existence of clouds and geometric mismatches between images. Applied to a dense Landsat time series between 1984 and 2014 for the two Namibian coastal lagoons at Walvis Bay and Sandwich Harbour the WLMO was able to identify detailed accretion and erosion progressions at the sand spits forming these lagoons. For both lagoons a northward expansion of the sand spits of up to 1000 m was identified, which corresponds well with the prevailing northwards directed ocean current and wind processes that are responsible for the material transport along the shore. At Walvis Bay we could also show that in the 30 years of analysis the sand spit's width has decreased by more than a half from 750 m in 1984-360 m in 2014. This ongoing cross-shore erosion process is a severe risk for future sand spit breaching, which would expose parts of the lagoon and the city to the open ocean. One of the major advantages of WLMO is the opportunity to analyze detailed spatiotemporal shoreline changes. Thus, it could be shown that the observed long-term accretion and erosion processes underwent great variations over time and cannot a priori be assumed as linear processes. Such detailed spatiotemporal process patterns are a prerequisite to improve the understanding of the processes forming the Namibian shorelines. Moreover, the approach has also the potential to be used in other coastal areas, because the focus on MNDWI-trajectories allows the transfer to many multispectral satellite sensors (e.g. Sentinel-2, ASTER) available worldwide.

  12. Changing Survival Rate of Infants Born Before 26 Gestational Weeks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Asad; Abdellatif, Mohamed; Sharef, Sharef W.; Fazalullah, Muhammad; Al-Senaidi, Khalfan; Khan, Ashfaq A.; Ahmad, Masood; Kripail, Mathew; Abuanza, Mazen; Bataclan, Flordeliza

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the changing survival rate and morbidities among infants born before 26 gestational weeks at the Sultan Qaboos University Hospital (SQUH) in Muscat, Oman. Methods: This retrospective study assessed the mortality and morbidities of all premature infants born alive at 23–26 gestational weeks at SQUH between June 2006 and May 2013. Infants referred to SQUH within 72 hours of birth during this period were also included. Electronic records were reviewed for gestational age, gender, birth weight, maternal age, mode and place of delivery, antenatal steroid administration, morbidity and outcome. The survival rate was calculated and findings were then compared with those of a previous study conducted in the same hospital from 1991 to 1998. Rates of major morbidities were also calculated. Results: A total of 81 infants between 23–26 gestational weeks were admitted to the neonatal unit during the study period. Of these, 58.0% were male and 42.0% were female. Median gestational age was 25 weeks and mean birth weight was 770 ± 150 g. Of the 81 infants, 49 survived. The overall survival rate was 60.5% compared to 41% reported in the previous study. Respiratory distress syndrome (100.0%), retinopathy of prematurity (51.9%), bronchopulmonary dysplasia (34.6%), intraventricular haemorrhage (30.9%) and patent ductus arteriosus (28.4%) were the most common morbidities. Conclusion: The overall survival rate of infants between 23–26 gestational weeks during the study period had significantly improved in comparison to that found at the same hospital from 1991 to 1998. There is a need for the long-term neurodevelopmental follow-up of premature infants. PMID:26357555

  13. Designing container shipping network under changing demand and freight rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Chen

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the optimization of container shipping network and its operations under changing cargo demand and freight rates. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer non-linear programming problem (MINP with an objective of maximizing the average unit ship-slot profit at three stages using analytical methodology. The issues such as empty container repositioning, ship-slot allocating, ship sizing, and container configuration are simultaneously considered based on a series of the matrices of demand for a year. To solve the model, a bi-level genetic algorithm based method is proposed. Finally, numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the validity of the proposed model and algorithms. The obtained results show that the suggested model can provide a more realistic solution to the issues on the basis of changing demand and freight rates and arrange a more effective approach to the optimization of container shipping network structures and operations than does the model based on the average demand.

  14. Bioremediation of oil on shorelines with organic and inorganic nutrients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sveum, P.; Ramstad, S.

    1995-01-01

    Two experiments to study the mechanisms associated with nutrient-enhanced biodegradation of oil (Statfjord crude oil)-contaminated shorelines were done in continuous-flow seawater exchange basins with simulated tides. The fertilizers included fish and meal pellets, stick water pellets, and two concentrations of Max Bac: standard and five times higher. Both one-time and repeated additions of fish meal were studied. The number of oil-degrading bacteria in the sediment increased by three to four orders of magnitude after adding oil and fertilizer, and repeated fertilization had little effect. Oil degradation was found to be extensive with all treatments in both experiments, which lasted 35 or 98 days. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon degradation seems to be most extensive in the sediments with repeated application of fish meal. The relation between accumulated total soluble nitrogen in interstitial water and nC 17 /pristane differs between the sediments treated with Max Bac and the organic additives, and indicates that this concentration cannot be used as a sole indication of the oil degradation rate if organic nutrients are used. The relation between accumulated CO 2 production and nC 17 /pristane ratio indicates a diauxic use of the two different sources of carbon present, without being absolute. Repeated fertilization with organic additives is neither beneficial nor detrimental to the oil degradation activity

  15. Biological conditions of shorelines following the Exxon Valdez spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoker, S.W.; Neff, J.M.; Schroeder, T.R.; McCormick, D.M.

    1993-01-01

    This report is based primarily on survey results from Prince William Sound, where most of the heavy shoreline oiling occurred. Although not strictly quantitative, the shoreline surveys provide an unprecedented, broad base of professional observations covering the entire spill-affected area from 1989 through 1992 by which to evaluate spill impacts and recovery. Shoreline surveys documented that the extent of shoreline oiling declined substantially from 1989 to 1992. In 1989, oil was found on about 16 percent of the 3,000 miles of shoreline in Prince William Sound; by the spring of 1991, oil was found on only about 2 percent of the shoreline; and by May of 1992, on only 0.2 percent. In all years, most of this oil was located in the biologically least productive upper intertidal and supratidal zones. In both 1991 and 1992, small, isolated pockets of subsurface oil were found on some boulder/cobble beaches. Most of these deposits were also located in the upper intertidal and were usually buried beneath clean sediments. In almost all cases, the condition of intertidal biological communities improved correspondingly from 1989 to 1992. By the spring of 1991, recovery appeared to be well under way on virtually all previously oiled shores, with species composition, abundance, and diversity levels usually comparable to those of nearby shores that were not oiled in 1989. Recruitment of intertidal plants and animals was observed as early as the summer of 1989, and increasingly through 1991 and 1992. Recruitment was evident even in areas with remnant deposits of surface and subsurface oil, indicating that toxicity levels of the oil had declined substantially and that, in most cases, the residual oil no longer interfered with biological recovery. Observations of birds and marine mammals on or near shorelines surveyed during 1991 and 1992 confirmed that species present before the spill were still present and were feeding and reproducing in areas affected by oil in 1989

  16. Interaction of oil and mineral fines on shorelines: review and assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, Edward H.; Lee, Kenneth

    2003-01-01

    The interaction of fine mineral particles with stranded oil in an aqueous medium reduces the adhesion of the oil to solid surfaces, such as sediments or bedrock. The net result is the formation of stable, micron-sized, oil droplets that disperse into the water column. In turn, the increase in surface area makes the oil more available for biodegradation. This interaction, referred to as oil-mineral aggregate (OMA) formation, can explain how oiled shorelines are cleaned naturally in the absence of wave action in very sheltered coastal environments. OMA formation also plays an important role in the efficacy of shoreline treatment techniques, such as physical mixing and sediment relocation that move oiled sediments into the zone of wave action to promote the interaction between oil and mineral fines. Successful application of these shoreline treatment options has been demonstrated at two spill events (the Tampa Bay response in Florida and the Sea Empress operation in Wales) and at a controlled oil spill experiment in the field (the 1997 Svalbard ITOSS program). Sediment relocation harnesses the hydraulic action of waves so that the processes of fine-particle interaction and physical abrasion usually occur in tandem on open coasts. There has been no evidence of significant detrimental side-effects of residual oil in pelagic or benthic environments associated with the use of these treatment options to enhance rates of dispersion and oil biodegradation

  17. Interaction of oil and mineral fines on shorelines: review and assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Owens, Edward H.; Lee, Kenneth

    2003-12-01

    The interaction of fine mineral particles with stranded oil in an aqueous medium reduces the adhesion of the oil to solid surfaces, such as sediments or bedrock. The net result is the formation of stable, micron-sized, oil droplets that disperse into the water column. In turn, the increase in surface area makes the oil more available for biodegradation. This interaction, referred to as oil-mineral aggregate (OMA) formation, can explain how oiled shorelines are cleaned naturally in the absence of wave action in very sheltered coastal environments. OMA formation also plays an important role in the efficacy of shoreline treatment techniques, such as physical mixing and sediment relocation that move oiled sediments into the zone of wave action to promote the interaction between oil and mineral fines. Successful application of these shoreline treatment options has been demonstrated at two spill events (the Tampa Bay response in Florida and the Sea Empress operation in Wales) and at a controlled oil spill experiment in the field (the 1997 Svalbard ITOSS program). Sediment relocation harnesses the hydraulic action of waves so that the processes of fine-particle interaction and physical abrasion usually occur in tandem on open coasts. There has been no evidence of significant detrimental side-effects of residual oil in pelagic or benthic environments associated with the use of these treatment options to enhance rates of dispersion and oil biodegradation.

  18. Climate and shoreline in Sweden during Weichsel and the next 150,000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moren, L. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Paasse, T. [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2001-08-01

    determines the changes of the subsidence/ uplift rate over time. The download factor is related to the ice load and represents the subsidence/uplift at the time for the maximal subsidence/uplift rate (A{sub T}). The ice thickness is of great importance for the amount of isostatic depression, due to the inertia and slow development of the viscous flow of mantle material the duration of the load is also of importance. To describe the shoreline displacement during the Weichselian and the next 150,000 years download factors (A{sub T}) and times for maximum subsidence uplift (T) have been determined given the postulated ice sheet scenarios. The inertial factor has been determined from Late Weichselian and Holocene observations. The presented scenarios involve great uncertainty. The climate and ice sheet scenario for the Weichselian is based on observations, and the involved uncertainties are related to lack of data and uncertain dating. (abstract truncated)

  19. Video rate electrical impedance tomography of vascular changes: preclinical development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halter, Ryan; Hartov, Alex; Paulsen, Keith

    2008-01-01

    Peripheral vasculature disease is strongly correlated with cardiovascular-associated mortality. Monitoring circulation health, especially in the peripheral limbs, is vital to detecting clinically significant disease at a stage when it can still be addressed through medical intervention. Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) maps the electrical properties of tissues within the body and has been used to image dynamically varying physiology, including blood flow. Here, we suggest that peripheral vasculature health can be monitored with EIT by imaging the hemodynamics of peripheral vessels and the surrounding tissues during reactive hyperemia testing. An analysis based on distinguishability theory is presented that indicates that an EIT system capable of making measurements with a precision of 50 µV may be able to detect small changes in vessel size associated with variations in blood flow. An EIT system with these precision capabilities is presented that is able to collect data at frame rates exceeding 30 fps over a broad frequency range up to 10 MHz. The system's high speed imaging performance is verified through high contrast phantom experiments and through physiological imaging of induced ischemia with a human forearm. Region of interest analysis of the induced ischemia images shows a marked decrease in conductivity over time, changing at a rate of approximately −3 × 10 −7 S m −1 s −1 , which is the same order of magnitude as reported in the literature. The distinguishability analysis suggests that a system such as the one developed here may provide a means to characterize the hemodynamics associated with blood flow through the peripheral vasculature

  20. Association of Changing Hospital Readmission Rates With Mortality Rates After Hospital Discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yongfei; Lin, Zhenqiu; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.; Ross, Joseph S.; Horwitz, Leora I.; Desai, Nihar R.; Suter, Lisa G.; Drye, Elizabeth E.; Bernheim, Susannah M.; Krumholz, Harlan M.

    2017-01-01

    Importance The Affordable Care Act has led to US national reductions in hospital 30-day readmission rates for heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and pneumonia. Whether readmission reductions have had the unintended consequence of increasing mortality after hospitalization is unknown. Objective To examine the correlation of paired trends in hospital 30-day readmission rates and hospital 30-day mortality rates after discharge. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective study of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older hospitalized with HF, AMI, or pneumonia from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2014. Exposure Thirty-day risk-adjusted readmission rate (RARR). Main Outcomes and Measures Thirty-day RARRs and 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rates (RAMRs) after discharge were calculated for each condition in each month at each hospital in 2008 through 2014. Monthly trends in each hospital’s 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge were examined for each condition. The weighted Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated for hospitals’ paired monthly trends in 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge for each condition. Results In 2008 through 2014, 2 962 554 hospitalizations for HF, 1 229 939 for AMI, and 2 544 530 for pneumonia were identified at 5016, 4772, and 5057 hospitals, respectively. In January 2008, mean hospital 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge were 24.6% and 8.4% for HF, 19.3% and 7.6% for AMI, and 18.3% and 8.5% for pneumonia. Hospital 30-day RARRs declined in the aggregate across hospitals from 2008 through 2014; monthly changes in RARRs were −0.053% (95% CI, −0.055% to −0.051%) for HF, −0.044% (95% CI, −0.047% to −0.041%) for AMI, and −0.033% (95% CI, −0.035% to −0.031%) for pneumonia. In contrast, monthly aggregate changes across hospitals in hospital 30-day RAMRs after discharge varied by condition: HF, 0.008% (95% CI, 0.007% to 0.010%); AMI, −0

  1. Preliminary assessment of bioengineered fringing shoreline reefs in Grand Isle and Breton Sound, Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Peyre, Megan K.; Schwarting, Lindsay; Miller, Shea

    2013-01-01

    postconstruction data are available. Data for the latter two sites thus reflect only the 2012 spring/summer seasons, which were further impacted by a direct hit by Hurricane Isaac in August 2012, which resulted in shoreward movement of approximately 14 percent of the bioengineered structures at Lake Fortuna. Given the shortened monitoring timeframe and significant differences in construction schedules, we were not able to provide a full postconstruction assessment of the sites or a full comparison of site success based on local site characteristics. Because many of the impacts that were identified for monitoring reflect long-term processes, results and data presented should be interpreted cautiously. Sustainable oyster reefs require recruitment, growth, and survival at a rate that keeps pace with mortality and shell disarticulation. Although one site failed to recruit (establishment plus survival > 50 millimeters [mm]) over two spawning seasons, two sites only had 6 months postconstruction data available for assessment. Although there are good data on the requirements for oyster growth, there is limited explicit information on the site-specific water quality, hydrodynamic, and biological interaction effects that may determine successful reef establishment. Furthermore, interannual variability can significantly affect reef establishment, and our shortened timeframe of sampling (less than one spawning season for two of the reefs; two spawning seasons for one reef), combined with a lack of prerestoration monitoring data, limit our ability to draw any conclusions about long-term reef sustainability. Bioengineered reefs are thought to provide some benefits to shoreline stabilization through their structure by immediately attenuating wave energies and directly reducing erosion rates at shorelines sheltered by the reefs but also by increasing sediment deposition behind the reefs. Preliminary data indicate differences in reef impact by site; given the short timeframe of postconstruction

  2. Changes in heart rate and heart rate variability as a function of age in Thoroughbred horses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohmura, Hajime; Jones, James H

    2017-01-01

    We investigated changes in heart rate (HR) and HR variability as a function of age in newborn foals to old Thoroughbred horses. Experiments were performed on a total of 83 healthy and clinically normal Thoroughbred horses. Resting HR decreased with age from birth. The relationship between age and HR fit the equation Y=48.2X -0.129 (R 2 =0.705); the relationship between age and HR for horses 0-7 years old fit the equation Y=44.1X -0.179 (R 2 =0.882). Seven-day-old horses had the highest HR values (106 ± 10.3 beat/min). The low frequency (LF) and high frequency (HF) powers increased with age in newborn to old horses. These changes in HR and HR variability appear to result from the effects of ageing. Three- to seven-year-old race horses had the lowest HR values (32.9 ± 3.5 beat/min) and the highest LF and HF powers except for the HF powers in the oldest horses. Race training may have contributed to these changes. Horses of ages greater than 25 years old had the highest HF powers and the lowest LF/HF ratios. In individual horses, 8 of the 15 horses over 25 years old had LF/HF ratios of less than 1.0; their HR variability appears to be unique, and they may have a different autonomic balance than horses of younger age.

  3. An integrated approach to shoreline mapping for spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.; LeBlanc, S.R.; Percy, R.J.

    1996-01-01

    A desktop mapping package was introduced which has the capability to provide consistent and standardized application of mapping and data collection/generation techniques. Its application in oil spill cleanup was discussed. The data base can be updated easily as new information becomes available. This provides a response team with access to a wide range of information that would otherwise be difficult to obtain. Standard terms and definitions and shoreline segmentation procedures are part of the system to describe the shore-zone character and shore-zone oiling conditions. The program that is in place for Atlantic Canada involves the integration of (1) Environment Canada's SCAT methodology in pre-spill data generation, (2) shoreline segmentation, (3) response management by objectives, (4) Environment Canada's national sensitivity mapping program, and (5) Environment Canada's field guide for the protection and treatment of oiled shorelines. 7 refs., 6 figs

  4. The effect of water physical quality and water level changes on the occurrence and density of larvae of Anopheles mosquitoes around the shoreline of the Koka reservoir, Central Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teklu, B. M.; Tekie, H.; McCartney, M.; Kibret, S.

    2010-08-01

    Entomological studies to determine the effect of the physical characteristics of larval breeding water bodies and reservoir water level changes on the occurrence of Anopheles mosquito larvae and on the spatial and temporal formation of larval breeding habitats were conducted in two villages at Koka reservoir between August and December 2007. Of the two study villages, Ejersa is in close proximity to the reservoir, and Kuma is 5 km away from it. Data on the type, number and physical characteristics of Anopheles larval breeding habitat, species composition and densities of anopheles mosquitoes in and around the study villages were investigated and recorded. Meteorological and reservoir water level data were compared with availability of Anopheles larval breeding sites and densities. Entomological data from the weekly larval collections showed that Anopheles pharoensis Theobald, Anopheles gambiae s.l. Giles, Anopheles coustani Laveran and Anopheles squamosus Theobald were breeding in the study area. The mean larval density of A. gambiae s.l. in this study was higher in slightly turbid and shallow aquatic habitats than in turbid and relatively deep aquatic habitats (F=16.97, plevels and the number of positive breeding habitats at Ejersa during the sampling period (r=0.605, pphysical characteristics such as water temperature, turbidity, depth and vegetation cover play an important role in the species composition, total Anopheles larval count, and the density of Anopheles mosquitoes in the vicinity. The proliferation of suitable breeding habitats around the reservoir villages is strongly associated with reservoir water level changes. This is particularly important for A. pharoensis and A. arabiensis which are important vectors of malaria in the area. Further investigation on the species diversity, physical and chemical habitat characteristics and impact of water holding capacity of the soil need to be done to generate detailed baseline data which will serve as a basis

  5. Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama, USA, using the vegetation change tracker model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mingshi; Huang, Chengquan; Zhu, Zhiliang; Shi, Hua; Lu, Heng; Peng, Shikui

    2009-01-01

    Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues, including global climate change, carbon budgets, and sustainability. In this study, our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987–2005, by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005, Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances, but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected, with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast, nonfederal forests, which are predominant in area share (about 95%), were heavily disturbed, clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987–1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994–2005. Additionally, the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes, which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns.

  6. In situ bioremediation strategies for oiled shoreline environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, K.; Mora, S. de

    1999-01-01

    Despite advances in preventative measures, recent events have demonstrated that accidental oil spills at sea will still occur. While physical (e.g. booms and skimmers) and chemical (e.g. chemical dispersants) methods have been developed to recover and/or disperse oil spilled at sea, they are not 100% effective and are frequently limited by operational constraints attributed to sea state and/or nature of the contamination. As a result, oil spills frequently impact shoreline environments. In situ bioremediation, the addition of substances or modification of habitat at contaminated sites to accelerate natural biodegradation processes, is now recognised as an alternative spill response technology of the remediation of these sites. Recommended for use following the physical removal of bulk oil, this treatment strategy has an operational advantage in that it breaks down and/or removes the residual contamination in place. Laboratory experiments and field trials have demonstrated the feasibility and success of bioremediation strategies such as nutrient enrichment to enhance bacterial degradation of oil on cobble, sand beach and salt marsh environments. With improved knowledge of the factors that limit natural oil degradation rates, the feasibility of other strategies such as phytoremediation, enhanced oil-mineral fines interaction and the addition of oxygen or alternative electron acceptors are now being evaluated. Laboratory and field test protocols are being refined for the selection of effective bioremediation agents and methods of application. It is recommended that future operational guidelines include real time product efficacy test and environmental effects monitoring programs. Termination of treatment should be implemented when: 1) it is no longer effective; 2) the oil has degraded to acceptable biologically benign concentrations; or 3) toxicity due to the treatment is increasing. (Author)

  7. Archaeological sites along the Gujarat coast: Proxies to decipher the past shoreline

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vora, K.H.; Gaur, A; Sundaresh

    on northwestern Saurashtra coast presents a classical case of shoreline shift in recent past. The paper discusses the archaeological evidences to decipher the past shoreline of the Saurashtra region...

  8. Sand spit and shoreline dynamics near Terekhol river mouth, Goa, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rajasekaran, C.; Jayakumar, S.; Gowthaman, R.; Jishad, M.; Yadhunath, E.M.; Pednekar, P.S.

    Evolution of shoreline and sand spit at the mouth of the Terekhol River, near Keri beach, located in the Indian state of Goa has been investigated From the analysis of the data collected, the shoreline oscillation (accretion & erosion) is seasonal...

  9. 78 FR 33051 - Non-Rock Alternatives to Shoreline Protection Demonstration Project (LA-16) Iberia, Jefferson...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-03

    ... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Natural Resources Conservation Service Non-Rock Alternatives to...-Rock Alternatives to Shoreline Protection Demonstration Project (LA-16), Iberia, Jefferson, and... and environmental limitations preclude the use of rock structures. The shoreline protection systems...

  10. Exchange rates and climate change: An application of fund

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2006-01-01

    As economic and emissions scenarios assume convergence of per capita incomes, they are sensitivity to the exchange rate used for international comparison. Particularly, developing countries are project to grow slower with a purchasing power exchange rate than with a market exchange rate. Different

  11. 15 CFR 923.25 - Shoreline erosion/mitigation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Shoreline erosion/mitigation planning... erosion/mitigation planning. (a) The management program must include a planning process for assessing the... planning process may be within the broader context of coastal hazard mitigation planning. (b) The basic...

  12. Pre-spill shoreline mapping in Prince William Sound, Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.; Lamarche, A.; Reimer, P.D.; Marchant, S.O.; O'Brien, D.K.

    2003-01-01

    A long-term shoreline mapping program has been initiated in Prince William Sound, Alaska, to generate pre-spill data to assist in the planning activities for oil spill response in the area. Low-altitude aerial videotape surveys and video images form the basis for the mapping effort. The coast was initially divided into alongshore segments. The physical shore-zone is relatively homogeneous within each segment. A pre-spill Shoreline Cleanup Assessment Team (SCAT) database, using the ShoreData software, was created based on this initial detailed mapping. The SCAT field teams are therefore equipped with a detailed analysis of the shore-zone character. The same information was also used to develop a separate database for use by planning and response operations groups. The data is entered into the Graphical Resource Database (GRD), and a Geographic Information System (GIS). A simplified characterization of the primary features of each segment is then made available through interpretation of the data. In the event of an oil spill, the SCAT data in the ShoreData files can be combined with field data on shoreline oiling conditions using a second software package called ShoreAccess R which provides summaries of the main parameters required by the planning group. It can also be used as a data storage and management tool. As part of this program, more than 1700 kilometres of shoreline in Prince William Sound have already been mapped. 24 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs

  13. Timing of oceans on Mars from shoreline deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citron, Robert I.; Manga, Michael; Hemingway, Douglas J.

    2018-03-01

    Widespread evidence points to the existence of an ancient Martian ocean. Most compelling are the putative ancient shorelines in the northern plains. However, these shorelines fail to follow an equipotential surface, and this has been used to challenge the notion that they formed via an early ocean and hence to question the existence of such an ocean. The shorelines’ deviation from a constant elevation can be explained by true polar wander occurring after the formation of Tharsis, a volcanic province that dominates the gravity and topography of Mars. However, surface loading from the oceans can drive polar wander only if Tharsis formed far from the equator, and most evidence indicates that Tharsis formed near the equator, meaning that there is no current explanation for the shorelines’ deviation from an equipotential that is consistent with our geophysical understanding of Mars. Here we show that variations in shoreline topography can be explained by deformation caused by the emplacement of Tharsis. We find that the shorelines must have formed before and during the emplacement of Tharsis, instead of afterwards, as previously assumed. Our results imply that oceans on Mars formed early, concurrent with the valley networks, and point to a close relationship between the evolution of oceans on Mars and the initiation and decline of Tharsis volcanism, with broad implications for the geology, hydrological cycle and climate of early Mars.

  14. Effects of shoreline erosion on infrastructure development along the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... coastal environment and affected the socio-economic life of local populations, threatened cultural heritage and hindered coastal tourism development. This paper assessed the extent of shoreline recession and its effects on buildings and infrastructure along Ghana's coastline through a study of the Nkontompo Community ...

  15. Shoreline stability in the vicinity of Cochin Harbour

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Vethamony, P.

    , showing stability over a period of one year. The growth of shoreline north of Cochin harbour channel takes place at the cost of sediment that should have otherwise by-passed the estuarine mouth. During the southwest monsoon the development of opposing...

  16. Back-Island and Open-Ocean Shorelines, and Sand Areas of the Undeveloped Areas of New Jersey Barrier Islands, March 9, 1991, to July 30, 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guy, Kristy K.

    2015-11-09

    Assessing the physical change to shorelines and wetlands is critical for determining the resiliency of wetland systems that protect adjacent habitat and communities. The wetland and back-barrier shorelines of the New Jersey barrier islands were changed by wave action and storm surge from Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program is assessing the impact of Hurricane Sandy to understand its historical context and the vulnerability of wetland systems. These assessments require data that document physical changes over time, such as maps, aerial photographs, satellite imagery, and lidar elevation data.

  17. Bioremediation of oil on shoreline environments: development of techniques and guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, K.; Merlin, F.X.

    1999-01-01

    Over the last 20 years, the development of operational procedures to accelerate the natural biodegradation rates of oil spilled on shoreline environments has been the focus of numerous research programs. As a result, bioremediation has been demonstrated to be an effective oil spill countermeasure for use in cobble, sand beach, salt marsh, and mudflat environments. Today, studies are directed towards improving the efficacy and evaluating the ecological impacts of available bioremediation agents and/or procedures. This review describes the latest developments in bioremediation strategies and their key success factors. (author)

  18. 7 CFR Exhibit B to Subpart A of... - Notice of Change in Interest Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Notice of Change in Interest Rate B Exhibit B to... Interest Rate (insert date) Notice of Change in Interest Rate (insert borrower's address) Re: □ □ Fund code... ___, for the original amount of ___ dollars ($___) provides for a change in interest rate for a limited...

  19. 36 CFR 327.30 - Shoreline Management on Civil Works Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... ADMINISTERED BY THE CHIEF OF ENGINEERS § 327.30 Shoreline Management on Civil Works Projects. (a) Purpose. The... this regulation, shoreline management plans are not required for those projects where construction was... approval, one copy of each project Shoreline Management Plan will be forwarded to HQUSACE (CECW-ON) WASH DC...

  20. Decadal changes in shoreline patterns in Sundarbans, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chatterjee, N.; Mukhopadhyay, R.; Mitra, D.

    islands in Indian Sundarbans (ISD) since 1979. Using multi temporal satellite images of LANDSAT, we found that as many as four islands within ISD have lost area in excess of 30%. While the area loss for another three islands has been between 10 and 30...

  1. Exchange rate volatility and regime change: a Visegrad comparison

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Valachy, J.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 4 (2006), s. 727-753 ISSN 0147-5967 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : exchange rate s * exchange rate regime s * volatility Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.964, year: 2006 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2006.07.003

  2. Effect of climate change on morphology around a port

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bharathan Radhamma, R.; Deo, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    It is well known that with the construction of a port and harbour structure the natural shoreline gets interrupted and this disturbs the surrounding coastal morphology. Added to this concern is another one of recent origin, namely, the likely impact of climate change induced by global warming. The present work addresses this issue by describing a case study at New Mangalore Port situated along the west coast of India. The harbour was formed by constructing two breakwaters along either side of the port since the year 1975. We have first determined the rate of change of the shoreline surrounding the port using historic satellite imageries over a period of 36 years. Thereafter a numerical shoreline change model: LITPACK was used to do the same and it was forced by waves simulated over a period of past 36 years varying from 1979 to 2016 and future 36 years ranging from 2016 to 2052. The wave simulation was done with the help of numerical wave model: Mike21-SW which was driven by the wind from a regional climate model called CORDEX. This climate model was earlier run for a moderate global warming pathway called: RCP-4.5. The analysis of satellite imageries indicated that in the past the shoreline change varied from -1.69 m/year to 2.56 m/year with an uncertainty of ± 0.35 m/year and approximately half of the coastal stretch faced extensive erosion. It was found that the wind and waves at this region would intensify in future and also raise the probability of occurrence of high waves. As per the numerical shoreline modelling this would give rise to a much enhanced rate of erosion, namely -2.87 m/year to -3.62 m/year. This would call for a modified shoreline management strategy around the port area. The study highlights the importance of considering potential changes in wind and wave forcing because of the climate change in evaluating future rates of shoreline changes around a port and harbour structure.

  3. Aging and physiological changes of the kidneys including changes in glomerular filtration rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musso, Carlos G; Oreopoulos, Dimitrios G

    2011-01-01

    In addition to the structural changes in the kidney associated with aging, physiological changes in renal function are also found in older adults, such as decreased glomerular filtration rate, vascular dysautonomia, altered tubular handling of creatinine, reduction in sodium reabsorption and potassium secretion, and diminished renal reserve. These alterations make aged individuals susceptible to the development of clinical conditions in response to usual stimuli that would otherwise be compensated for in younger individuals, including acute kidney injury, volume depletion and overload, disorders of serum sodium and potassium concentration, and toxic reactions to water-soluble drugs excreted by the kidneys. Additionally, the preservation with aging of a normal urinalysis, normal serum urea and creatinine values, erythropoietin synthesis, and normal phosphorus, calcium and magnesium tubular handling distinguishes decreased GFR due to normal aging from that due to chronic kidney disease. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  4. 77 FR 64362 - Postal Rate and Classification Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-19

    .... Promotions As part of this filing, the Postal Service seeks approval of six promotions during calendar year.... Table 6--First-Class Mail Price Changes Percent First-class mail product change Single-Piece Letters and...-piece letter mail (including the Forever stamp), increases by one cent under the Postal Service's plan...

  5. Shoreline dynamics of the active Yellow River delta since the implementation of Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme: A remote-sensing and statistics-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Yaoshen; Chen, Shenliang; Zhao, Bo; Pan, Shunqi; Jiang, Chao; Ji, Hongyu

    2018-01-01

    The Active Yellow River (Huanghe) Delta (AYRD) is a complex landform in which rapid deposition takes place due to its geologic formation and evolution. Continuous monitoring of shoreline dynamics at high-temporal frequency is crucial for understanding the processes and the driving factors behind this rapidly changing coast. Great efforts have been devoted to map the changing shoreline of the Yellow River delta and explain such changes through remote sensing data. However, the temporal frequency of shoreline in the obtained datasets are generally not fine enough to reflect the detailed or subtly variable processes of shoreline retreat and advance. To overcome these limitations, we continuously monitored the dynamics of this shoreline using time series of Landsat data based on tidal-level calibration model and orthogonal-transect method. The Abrupt Change Value (ACV) results indicated that the retreat-advance patterns had a significant impact regardless of season or year. The Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme (WSRS) plays a dominant role in delivering river sediment discharge to the sea and has an impact on the annual average maximum ACV, especially at the mouth of the river. The positive relationship among the average ACV, runoff and sediment load are relatively obvious; however, we found that the Relative Exposure Index (REI) that measures wave energy was able to explain only approximately 20% of the variation in the data. Based on the abrupt change at the shoreline of the AYRD, river flow and time, we developed a binary regression model to calculate the critical sediment load and water discharge for maintaining the equilibrium of the active delta from 2002 to 2015. These values were approximately 0.48 × 108 t/yr and 144.37 × 108 m3/yr. If the current water and sediment proportions released from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir during the WSRS remain stable, the erosion-accretion patterns of the active delta will shift from rapid accretion to a dynamic balance.

  6. How Does the PAC Respond to Changes in the Payment Rate

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — How Does the Volume of Post-Acute Care Respond to Changes in the Payment Rate Measure the effect of changes from 1997 to 2001 in Medicares payment rates for skilled...

  7. 76 FR 80326 - 2012 Rate Changes for the Basetime, Overtime, Holiday, and Laboratory Services Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-23

    ..., Holiday, and Laboratory Services Rates AGENCY: Food Safety and Inspection Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice... voluntary, overtime, and holiday inspection and identification, certification, and laboratory services. The 2012 basetime, overtime, holiday, and laboratory services rates will be applied on the first FSIS pay...

  8. Chemical changes in groundwater and their reaction rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talma, A.S.

    1981-01-01

    The evolution of the major ion concentrations of groundwater (Na, K, Ca, Mg, HCO 3 , SO 4 , Cl and NO 3 ) can be described as the consequence of a number of competing chemical reactions. With the aid of the naturally occuring radioactive and stable isotopes some of these reactions can be separated, identified and followed in space and time. In some field studies, especialy of artesian water, the rates of reactions can be estimated. A number of processes observed in South African sandstones aquifers are discussed and the variable reaction rates demonstrated. Reactions that can be identified include carbonate solution, chemical weathering, salt leaching, cation exchange and redox processes

  9. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  10. Anomalous electric field changes and high flash rate beneath a ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In spite of many experimental and theoretical studies the relationships between storm dynamics, severe weather,and lightning activity have been least understood.Measurements of electric field made under a severe thunderstorm at a northeastern Indian station,Guwahati,India are reported. Lightning flash rate increases ...

  11. 77 FR 64148 - Postal Rate and Classification Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-18

    .... Priority Mail International. Overall, Priority Mail International (PMI) prices increase by 15.1 percent. The existing price structure of PMI Flat Rate, Retail, Commercial Base, and Commercial Plus price.... Additionally, the Postal Service may offer a promotional discount or rebate on certain PMI items. International...

  12. Exchange rate volatility and regime change: Visegrad comparison

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Valachy, J.

    -, č. 7 (2006), s. 1-36 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/06/1293 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : exchange rate regime s * volatility * transition Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/21616/1/IPC-working-paper-007-KocendaValachy.pdf

  13. Evolution in Oryctes baculovirus: rate and types of genomic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, A M; Zelazny, B

    1990-01-01

    Three cloned strains of Oryctes baculovirus were released into a previously unexposed population of the host insect, the coconut palm rhinoceros beetle, Oryctes rhinoceros. The experiment was conducted on Meemu Atoll in the Maldive Islands. Viruses were isolated from the beetle population at 1 year, 1.75 years, and 4 years after release. No changes in genotype were observed in viruses isolated after 1 and 1.75 years. After 4 years, however, three types of genomic change had occurred. A recombinant derived from two of the released strains, an isolate containing a 100-bp insert, and one example of a point mutation were found in the 22 isolates examined.

  14. 75 FR 69142 - Postal Rate and Classification Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-10

    .... Overall, Priority Mail International (PMI) prices increase on average by 3.8 percent. Classification... and for insurance with EMI and PMI increase. The unique price tier for Canada when optional insurance is purchased for PMI parcels is eliminated. Details of these changes may be found in the Attachment...

  15. Maternity care in the Netherlands: the changing home birth rate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiegers, T.A.; Zee, J. van der; Keirse, M.J.N.C.

    1998-01-01

    In 1965 two-thirds of all births in The Netherlands occurred at home. In the next 25 years, that situation became reversed with more than two-thirds of births occurring in hospital and fewer than one-third at home. Several factors have influenced that change, including the introduction of short-stay

  16. Discrete exchange rate changes with real wage resistance

    OpenAIRE

    Tapio Palokangas

    1992-01-01

    Fixed exchange rate policy is examined when money wages are determined by collective bargaining for fixed periods. The main results are as follows. If the interest elasticity of aggregate demand is high and the contract periods in the labour market are long, then in the short run, a devaluation produces expansion but in the long run, contraction. Expectations on a future devaluation cause expansion before the occurrence of the devaluation and at the moment of the occurrence, domestic expendit...

  17. Canadian coastal environments, shoreline processes, and oil spill cleanup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.

    1994-03-01

    The coastal zone is a dynamic environment, so that in developing practical and effective oil spill response strategies it is necessary to understand the forces that contribute to shore-zone processs. The coasts of Canada encompass a wide range of environments and are characterized by a variety of shoreline types that include the exposed, resistant cliffs of eastern Newfoundland and the sheltered marshes of the Beaufort Sea. A report is presented to provide an understanding of the dynamics and physical processes as they vary on the different coasts of Canada, including the Great Lakes. An outline of the general character and processes on a regional basis describes the coastal environments and introduces the literature that can be consulted for more specific information. The likely fate and persistence of oil that reaches the shoreline is discussed to provide the framework for development of spill response strategies and for the selection of appropriate shoreline cleanup or treatment countermeasures. Lessons learned from recent experience with major oil spills and field experiments are integrated into the discussion. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each of the four sections of this report. 502 refs., 5 figs

  18. Changing trends of indications and rate of cesarean section

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambreen, A.; Intsar, A.; Khurshid, S.

    2013-01-01

    Background: There is a trend of rising caesarean section rate over the past decade affecting the economy of the country. This continually rising caesarean section rate is of increasing concern to the health professionals and the public This study was designed to assess the indications and trends of caesarean sections done over a five year period from 2007 to 2011. Methods: This was a retrospective observational study done over a five year period in the department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Fatima Memorial Hospital Lahore from 2007 to 2011. Results: Total no of deliveries from 2007 to 2011 were 30741 out of which caesarean sections performed were 13820.The caesarean birth rate increased from 41% to-48%. The indications varied a little in case of mal-presentation and eclampsia. APH and IUGR has risen a little from (from 2.56% to 2.6% and 1.83% to 2.34% respectively). But proportion of repeat caesarean section increased by 25.99% to 31.45% and that of presumed fetal distress increased from 8% to 15% respectively. Recently the indication of maternal choice is emerging with incidence of 0.8% in our study. The proportion has fallen in prolonged labour due to cervical dystocia from 17% to 14% and in obstructed labour from 4.6% to 3%. Conclusion: Individualization of every case, meticulous clinical examination, use of intrapartum fetomaternal survellience along with regular use of partograrm would limit the practice of undue caesarean sections. (author)

  19. Satellite images survey for the identification of the coastal sedimentary system changes and associated vulnerability along the western bay of the Gulf of Tunis (northern Africa)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hzami, Abderraouf; Amrouni, Oula; Romanescu, Gheorghe; Constantin Stoleriu, Cristian; Mihu-Pintilie, Alin; Saâdi, Abdeljaouad

    2018-04-01

    The aim of this study consists in testing the effectiveness of satellite data in order to monitoring shoreline and sedimentary features changes, especially the rapidly changing of Gulf of Tunis coast. The study area is located in the Gulf of Tunis western bay (Southern Mediterranean Sea) which is characterized by sandy beaches of Ghar Melah and Raoued (Medjerda Delta area). The aerial photographs and satellite imageries were used for mapping the evolution of shoreline. Diachronic data (satellite imagery, aerial photography and topographic maps) were used to monitor and to quantify, the evolution of the coastal areas. These thematic data were digitally overlaid and vectorised for highlighting the shoreline changes between 1936 and 2016, in order to map the rate of erosion and accretion along the shoreline. Results show that the accretion and degradation are related to the Medjerda: change of outlet in 1973 and impoundment of the Sidi Salem dam in 1982. We found that the general trend of the coastal geomorphic processes can be monitored with satellite imageries (such as Sentinel A2, Spots 4 and 5), due to its repetitive coverage along the time and their high quality concerning the spectral contrast between land and sea areas. Improved satellite imageries with high resolution should be a valuable tool for complementing traditional methods for mapping and assessing the sedimentary structures (such as shoreline, delta, marine bars), and monitoring especially the lowlands coastal areas (slightly eroded).

  20. Heart rate variability changes in physicians working on night call.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malmberg, Birgitta; Persson, Roger; Flisberg, Per; Ørbaek, Palle

    2011-03-01

    Adverse effects by night-call duty have become an important occupational health issue. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the heart rate variability (HRV) differed during recovery from day work and night-call duty between distinct physician specialities. We studied the impact of a 16-h night-call duty on autonomic balance, measured by HRV, among two physician groups differing with respect to having to deal with life-threatening conditions while on call. Nineteen anaesthesiologists (ANEST) and 16 paediatricians and ear, nose and throat surgeons (PENT) were monitored by ambulatory digital Holter electrocardiogram (ECG). Heart rate variability was analysed between 21:00 and 22:00 after an ordinary workday, on night call and in the evening post-call. Absolute and normalized high-frequency power (HF, HFnu) were the main outcome variables, expressing parasympathetic influence on the heart. ANEST had lower HF power than PENT while on night call and post-daytime work (p work compared with post-night-call duty (p balance and did not differ between specialities. However, the less dynamic HRV after daytime work and during night-call duty in the ANEST group may indicate a higher physiological stress level. These results may contribute to the improvement of night-call schedules within the health care sector.

  1. Heart Rate Changes in Electroacupuncture Treated Polycystic Ovary in Rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramadoss, Mukilan; Ramanathan, Gunasekaran; Subbiah, Angelie Jessica; Natrajan, Chidambaranathan

    2016-03-01

    Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS) is a common metabolic disorder, it affects both humans and animals. It may induce coronary heart disease, obesity and hyperandrogenism. Previous studies show that Low frequency Electroacupuncture (EA) have an effect on PCOS, however the exact pathway is unclear. To find the effect of EA on autonomic activity of the heart in Estradiol Valerate (EV) induced PCOS rats. Heart rate variability (HRV) was assessed in 3 groups: 1) Control; 2) PCOS rats; and 3) PCOS rats after EA treatment (n=8 in each group). From the time domain analysis and frequency domain analysis (linear measures) HRV analysis was done. EA stimulation was given at low frequency of 2Hz for 15 min on alternate days for 4-5 weeks. Collected data were statistically analysed using One-Way Analysis of Variance with the application of multiple comparisons of Tukey test. EA treatment group shows significant reduction in Heart Rate (HR) and low frequency, high frequency ratio (LF/HF); and increase in RR interval, Total Power (TP) when compared to PCOS group. The study concludes that EA treatment has a significant effect on reducing sympathetic tone and decreasing HR in PCOS.

  2. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

  3. Monitoring beach changes using GPS surveying techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert; Leach, Mark P.; Paine, Jeffrey G.; Cardoza, Michael A.

    1993-01-01

    A need exists for frequent and prompt updating of shoreline positions, rates of shoreline movement, and volumetric nearshore changes. To effectively monitor and predict these beach changes, accurate measurements of beach morphology incorporating both shore-parallel and shore-normal transects are required. Although it is possible to monitor beach dynamics using land-based surveying methods, it is generally not practical to collect data of sufficient density and resolution to satisfy a three-dimensional beach-change model of long segments of the coast. The challenge to coastal scientists is to devise new beach monitoring methods that address these needs and are rapid, reliable, relatively inexpensive, and maintain or improve measurement accuracy.

  4. 78 FR 283 - 2013 Rate Changes for the Basetime, Overtime, Holiday, and Laboratory Services Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-03

    ... cost of living increase. Some examples of direct benefits are health insurance, retirement, life insurance, and Thrift Savings Plan basic and matching contributions. The calculation for the 2013 benefits rate per hour per program employee is: [FY 2012 Direct Benefits/(Total Regular hours + Total Overtime...

  5. Lung health and heart rate variability changes in salt workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glad Mohesh, M I; Sundaramurthy, A

    2016-04-01

    India is the third largest salt producing country in the World, with a global annual production of 230 million tonnes. Large number of salt workers get employed in these salt milling plants risking their life from the effects of salt. Recent foreign evidences reported that these salt workers are exposed to aerosol salt particles that disturb their lung and cardiovascular autonomic control. To compare the status of lung health, cardiovascular autonomic control and biochemical changes in a group of salt industry workers with that of the age-matched normal subjects. Volunteers of both sexes (25-35 years) were divided into Group I (n=10) controls and Group II (n=10) non-brine salt workers in salt milling plants. From fasting blood sample, complete blood count, plasma electrolyte and lipid profile estimation were done. After resting for 15min, blood pressure and lead II ECG were recorded. Spirometry was done using RMS Helios spirometer. Data collected were later analysed using GraphPad Prism 5.0 with statistical significance set at p4.0, 112.8±1.7, pindustry has shown a little or no impact on the respiratory system, however there are changes in the blood and cardiovascular system, which need to be further studied to understand the long-term influences of salt in this population. Copyright © 2015 Tuberculosis Association of India. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Quebec region's shoreline segmentation in the St. Lawrence River : response tool for oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laforest, S.; Martin, V.

    2004-01-01

    Environment Canada, the Canadian Coast Guard, and the Eastern Canada Response Corporation are developing and refining pre-spill databases containing information about physical shoreline characteristics. Automated links between these pre-spill shoreline characteristic databases and computerized shoreline assessment tools have also been created using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology. The pre-spill databases can be used for planning shoreline cleanup operations. A training exercise, designed to evaluate a spill management system integrating the Quebec region pre-spill shoreline database and the ShoreAssess R shoreline assessment system was performed by Eastern Canada Response Corporation during an aerial survey where shoreline was segmented into digitized information. The cartography of segmentation covers the fluvial part of the St. Lawrence River. The oil spill-oriented database includes geomorphologic information from the supratidal to the lower intertidal zones. It also includes some statistical information and other requirements for cleanup operations. The computerized shoreline assessment tools made it possible to evaluate the length and type of shoreline that would potentially be impacted by oil. The tools also made it possible to assess the shoreline treatment methods most likely to be used, and evaluate the probable duration of the cleanup operation. The training exercise demonstrated that the integration of the databases is a valuable tool during the early phases of an oil spill response. 9 refs., 3 figs

  7. Monitoring oiled shorelines in Prince William Sound Alaska, following the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilfillan, E.S.; Page, D.S.; Harner, E.J.; Boehm, P.D.; Stoker, S.W.

    1993-01-01

    Three types of shoreline monitoring programs were employed to evaluate the recovery of the ecological communities of Prince William Sound (PWS) shorelines after the oil spill: (a) Extensive shoreline surveys conducted (1989--1992) over much of the oiled shoreline to define extent of shoreline oiling and to assess biological conditions; (b) Detailed sampling in 1989 at nonrandomly chosen locations representing a range of oiling conditions (c) Comprehensive shoreline ecology program initiated in 1990 to assess shoreline recovery in Prince William Sound using (1) a rigorous stratified random sampling study design with 64 sites representing 4 shoreline habitats and 4 oiling levels (unoiled, light, moderate, heavy); (2) periodic sampling at 12 nonrandomly chosen sites of particular concern. Biological communities were analyzed to detect differences due to oiling in each of 16 habitat/tide zone combinations. Following the spill, populations of all major species survived as sources for recolonization. Recruitment to oiled shores began in summer 1989. By 1990, shoreline biota in PWS had largely recovered. Estimates of shoreline recovery (biological community indistinguishable from reference) ranged from 91% based on univariate analysis of standard community parameters to 73% based on multivariate correspondence analysis

  8. 7 CFR 3575.80 - Interest rate changes after loan closing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate changes after loan closing. 3575.80..., DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL Community Programs Guaranteed Loans § 3575.80 Interest rate changes after...) may collectively effect a permanent reduction in the interest rate on the guaranteed loan at any time...

  9. 7 CFR 1779.80 - Interest rate changes after loan closing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate changes after loan closing. 1779.80....80 Interest rate changes after loan closing. (a) General. Subject to the restrictions below, the borrower, lender, and holder (if any) may collectively effect a permanent reduction in the interest rate on...

  10. Projected Changes in Evapotranspiration Rates over Northeast Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Alexandre; Guimarães, Sullyandro; Vasconcelos, Francisco, Jr.; Sales, Domingo; da Silva, Emerson

    2015-04-01

    Climate simulations were performed using a regional model (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, RAMS 6.0) driven by data from one of the CMIP5 models (Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2 - Earth System, HadGEM2-ES) over two CORDEX domains (South America and Central America) for the heavy-emission scenario (RCP8.5). Potential evapotranspiraion data from the RCM and from the CMIP5 global models were analyzed over Northeast Brazil, a semiarid region with a short rainy season (usually February to May in its northern portion due to the seasonal shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone) and over which droughts are frequent. Significant changes in the potential evapotranspiration were found, with most models showing a increasing trend along the 21st century, which are expected to alter the surface water budget, increasing the current water deficit (precipitation is currently much smaller than potential evapotranspiration). Based on the projections from the majority of the models, we expect important impacts over local agriculture and water resources over Northeast Brazil.

  11. Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jezkova, Tereza

    2016-01-01

    Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change. PMID:27881748

  12. Impact of alternative interventions on changes in generic dispensing rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Malley, A James; Frank, Richard G; Kaddis, Atheer; Rothenberg, Barbara M; McNeil, Barbara J

    2006-10-01

    To evaluate the effectiveness of four alternative interventions (member mailings, advertising campaigns, free generic drug samples to physicians, and physician financial incentives) used by a major health insurer to encourage its members to switch to generic drugs. Using claim-level data from Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan, we evaluated the success of four interventions implemented during 2000-2003 designed to increase the use of generic drugs among its members. Around 13 million claims involving seven important classes of drugs were used to assess the effectiveness of the interventions. For each intervention a control group was developed that most closely resembled the corresponding intervention group. Logistic regression models with interaction effects between the treatment group (intervention versus control) and the status of the intervention (active versus not active) were used to evaluate if the interventions had an effect on the generic dispensing rate (GDR). Because the mail order pharmacy was considered more aggressive at converting prescriptions to generics, separate generic purchasing models were fitted to retail and mail order claims. In secondary analyses separate models were also fitted to claims involving a new condition and claims refilled for preexisting conditions. The interventions did not appear to increase the market penetration of generic drugs for either retail or mail order claims, or for claims involving new or preexisting conditions. In addition, we found that the ratio of copayments for brand name to generic drugs had a large positive effect on the GDR. The interventions did not appear to directly influence the GDR. Financial incentives expressed to consumers through benefit designs have a large influence on their switching to generic drugs and on the less-costly mail-order mode of purchase.

  13. Choice with frequently changing food rates and food ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, William M; Davison, Michael

    2014-03-01

    In studies of operant choice, when one schedule of a concurrent pair is varied while the other is held constant, the constancy of the constant schedule may exert discriminative control over performance. In our earlier experiments, schedules varied reciprocally across components within sessions, so that while food ratio varied food rate remained constant. In the present experiment, we held one variable-interval (VI) schedule constant while varying the concurrent VI schedule within sessions. We studied five conditions, each with a different constant left VI schedule. On the right key, seven different VI schedules were presented in seven different unsignaled components. We analyzed performances at several different time scales. At the longest time scale, across conditions, behavior ratios varied with food ratios as would be expected from the generalized matching law. At shorter time scales, effects due to holding the left VI constant became more and more apparent, the shorter the time scale. In choice relations across components, preference for the left key leveled off as the right key became leaner. Interfood choice approximated strict matching for the varied right key, whereas interfood choice hardly varied at all for the constant left key. At the shortest time scale, visit patterns differed for the left and right keys. Much evidence indicated the development of a fix-and-sample pattern. In sum, the procedural difference made a large difference to performance, except for choice at the longest time scale and the fix-and-sample pattern at the shortest time scale. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  14. 47 CFR 43.43 - Reports of proposed changes in depreciation rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Reports of proposed changes in depreciation... Reports of proposed changes in depreciation rates. (a) Each communication common carrier with annual..., before making any changes in the depreciation rates applicable to its operated plant, file with the...

  15. 47 CFR 1.787 - Reports of proposed changes in depreciation rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Reports of proposed changes in depreciation... Reports and Requests § 1.787 Reports of proposed changes in depreciation rates. Carriers shall file reports regarding proposed changes in depreciation rates as required by part 43 of this chapter. ...

  16. Estimation of uncertainty in tracer gas measurement of air change rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizuka, Atsushi; Okuizumi, Yumiko; Yanagisawa, Yukio

    2010-12-01

    Simple and economical measurement of air change rates can be achieved with a passive-type tracer gas doser and sampler. However, this is made more complex by the fact many buildings are not a single fully mixed zone. This means many measurements are required to obtain information on ventilation conditions. In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty of tracer gas measurement of air change rate in n completely mixed zones. A single measurement with one tracer gas could be used to simply estimate the air change rate when n = 2. Accurate air change rates could not be obtained for n ≥ 2 due to a lack of information. However, the proposed method can be used to estimate an air change rate with an accuracy of air change rate can be avoided. The proposed estimation method will be useful in practical ventilation measurements.

  17. Rates and limits of climatic change: Discussion of possible targets; Rates and limits of temperature, precipitation, and sea-level changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gleick, P H [Pacific Inst. for SiDES, Berkeley, CA (US); Sassin, W [Landl (AT)

    1990-10-01

    The rate of sea-level rise over the next century is likely to accelerate rapidly and exceed rates of rise experienced over the last several thousand years. Under these conditions, adverse effects on natural ecosystems such as coastal marshes and coral reef islands would be widely observable by 2050, and would be noticeable in vulnerable ecosystems by the year 2000, even under low sea-level rise scenario. Non-linearities and sudden events such as storm surges and a change in storm frequency and intensity could lead to damages even earlier. Similarly, change in temperature and precipitation patterns far greater than those experienced in the last 10000to 100000 years seem likely unless strong actions are taken soon. Rates of change in temperature, precipitation, and sea level over geologic time have often exceeded the rates expected over the next century from global warming. These large excursions, however, were often accompanied by dramatic changes in ecosystems and by large species extinctions, and they occurred when no human infrastructure existed. The adaptive abilities of natural ecosystems can be used to define targets of maximum rates of rise. For coral reef islands and coastal marshes, the maximum rate of accretion of materials is 10 to 15 mm/yr. At this rate, however, many reefs and marshes that accrete materials at slower rates will be inundated and destroyed. Average rates of accretion for marshes are lower - between 2 and 5 mm/yr, and between 5 and 10 mm/yr for coral reefs. Even at these lower rates, some ecosystem losses are to be expected. This information leads to a recommended target for the rate of sea-level rise of between 20 and 50 mm per decade, and a target for absolute sea-level rise of between 0.2 and 0.5 above the 1990 global mean sea level. (authors).

  18. The Impact of Sovereign Credit Rating Changes on Emerging Stock Markets

    OpenAIRE

    YIN, WEIGUO

    2008-01-01

    This study investigate the impact of sovereign rating change in emerging markets by using 42 sample counties over the period Jan. 1999 to Aug. 2008. The concurrent relationship between sovereign rating changes and the associated stock market spread can be established: the spreads tend to rise (fall) when upgrades (downgrades) occur. Surprisingly, according to Fitch report regarding the emerging market liquidity, we divide the whole time line into two sub-periods. It is found that rating chang...

  19. COREXIT 9580 shoreline cleaner: Development, application, and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canevari, G.P.; Fiocco, R.J.; Lessard, R.R.; Fingas, M.

    1995-01-01

    This paper will describe research on chemical beach cleaners for treatment of oiled shorelines that was initiated in support of the cleaning activities in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Valdez oil spill in March 1989. The concept for using beach cleaners for shoreline cleanup is to apply a pre-soak to the weathered crude oil on shore and then flush with sea water to wash the oil into a boomed area for subsequent recovery. Criteria imposed on the use of chemical beach cleaners for the cleanup of the Valdez spill were: (1) effective rock cleaning agents should have very little or no toxicity to marine and terrestrial life, (2) there should be no dispersion of the oil washed from the shoreline into the water column; oil was to be recovered by techniques such as skimming or sorbents, and (3) the agents should be on the EPA National Contingency Plan (NCP) list. A laboratory-scale rock washing test was developed to measure cleaner effectiveness and dispersion. A large number of commercially available formulated products were evaluated, as well as development formulations. The commercial products included all of the available NCP-listed products which could function as cleaners. None of the commercial products completely satisfied all the requirements established by the agencies for beach cleaning. However, a new formula, called COREXIT 9580, consisting of two surfactants and a solvent was developed. It exhibited low fish toxicity, low dispersancy and effective rock cleaning capability. The paper reviews the laboratory and field testing to explore the potential use of the COREXIT 9580 to save and restore oiled vegetation

  20. Mid Holocene lake level and shoreline behavior during the Nipissing phase of the upper Great Lakes at Alpena, Michigan, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, T.A.; Lepper, K.; Endres, A.L.; Johnston, J.W.; Baedke, S.J.; Argyilan, E.P.; Booth, R.K.; Wilcox, D.A.

    2011-01-01

    The Nipissing phase was the last pre-modern high-water stage of the upper Great Lakes. Represented as either a one- or two-peak highstand, the Nipissing occurred following a long-term lake-level rise. This transgression was primarily an erosional event with only the final stage of the transgression preserved as barriers, spits, and strandplains of beach ridges. South of Alpena, Michigan, mid to late Holocene coastal deposits occur as a strandplain between Devils Lake and Lake Huron. The landward part of this strandplain is a higher elevation platform that formed during the final stage of lake-level rise to the Nipissing peak. The pre-Nipissing shoreline transgressed over Devils Lake lagoonal deposits from 6.4 to 6.1. ka. The first beach ridge formed ~ 6. ka, and then the shoreline advanced toward Lake Huron, producing beach ridges about every 70. years. This depositional regression produced a slightly thickening wedge of sediment during a lake-level rise that formed 20 beach ridges. The rise ended at 4.5. ka at the Nipissing peak. This peak was short-lived, as lake level fell > 4. m during the following 500. years. During this lake-level rise and subsequent fall, the shoreline underwent several forms of shoreline behavior, including erosional transgression, aggradation, depositional transgression, depositional regression, and forced regression. Other upper Great Lakes Nipissing platforms indicate that the lake-level change observed at Alpena of a rapid pre-Nipissing lake-level rise followed by a slower rise to the Nipissing peak, and a post-Nipissing rapid lake-level fall is representative of mid Holocene lake level in the upper Great Lakes. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  1. What is the impact on fish recruitment of anthropogenic physical and structural habitat change in shallow nearshore areas in temperate systems? : A systematic review protocol

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Macura, Biljana; Lönnstedt, Oona; Byström, Pär; Airoldi, Laura; Eriksson, Britas; Rudstam, Lars; Støttrup, Josianne

    2016-01-01

    Shallow nearshore marine ecosystems are changing at an increasing rate due to a range of human activities such as urbanisation and commercial development. The growing numbers of constructions and other physical and structural alterations of the shoreline often take place in nursery and spawning

  2. Living Shoreline Designs in Urban Systems: Examples from New York and Baltimore Harbors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doss, T.

    2017-12-01

    In the aftermath of Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, there was a renewed interest in protecting our shorelines and restoring community resiliency by using natural and nature based features. We observed in the wake of these storms that those shorelines that had been protected by natural features sustained less damage. But how well can we mimic these natural features? And how do we determine which strategy is best along a given shoreline? A series of living shoreline pilot projects are presented, highlighting the design and construction for the different strategies and how they are being monitored and adapted to sea level rise.

  3. Development of a practical methodology for integrating shoreline oil-holding capacity into modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt Etkin, D.; French-McCay, D.; Rowe, J.; Michel, J.; Boufadel, M.; Li, H.

    2008-01-01

    The factors that influence the behaviour of oil in the aftermath of an oil spill on water include oil type and characteristics; oil thickness on the shoreline; time until shoreline impact; timing with regards to tides; weathering during and after the spill; and nearshore wave energy. The oil behaviour also depends on the shoreline characteristics, particularly porosity and permeability. The interactions of spilled oil with sediments on beaches must be well understood in order to model the oil spill trajectory, fate and risk. The movement of oil can be most accurately simulated if the algorithm incorporates an estimate of shoreline oil retention. This paper presented a literature review of relevant shoreline oiling studies and considered the relevance of study findings for inclusion in modelling. Survey data from a detailed shoreline cleanup assessment team (SCAT) were analyzed for patterns in oil penetration and oil-holding capacity by shoreline sediment type and oil type for potential use in modelling algorithms. A theoretical beach hydraulics model was then developed for use in a stochastic spill model. Gaps in information were identified, including the manner in which wave action and other environmental variables have an impact on the dynamic processes involved in shoreline oiling. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to estimate the amount of oil held by a shoreline upon impact to allow a trajectory model to more accurately project the total spread of oil. 27 refs., 13 tabs., 3 figs

  4. Changes in heart rate and heart rate variability during transportation of horses by road and air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohmura, Hajime; Hobo, Seiji; Hiraga, Atsushi; Jones, James H

    2012-04-01

    To determine the influence of transportation by road and air on heart rate (HR) and HR variability (HRV) in horses. Animals-6 healthy horses. ECG recordings were obtained from horses before (quarantine with stall rest [Q]; 24 hours) and during a journey that included transportation by road (RT; 4.5 hours), waiting on the ground in an air stall (W; 5.5 hours), and transportation by air (AT; 11 hours); HR was determined, and HRV indices of autonomic nervous activity (low-frequency [LF; 0.01 to 0.07 Hz] and high-frequency [HF; 0.07 to 0.6 Hz] power) were calculated. Mean ± SD HRs during Q, RT, W, and AT were 38.9 ± 1.5 beats/min, 41.7 ± 5.6 beats/min, 41.5 ± 4.3 beats/min, and 48.8 ± 5.6 beats/min, respectively; HR during AT was significantly higher than HR during Q. The LF power was significantly higher during Q (3,454 ± 1,087 milliseconds(2)) and AT (3,101 ± 567 milliseconds(2)) than it was during RT (1,824 ± 432 milliseconds(2)) and W (2,072 ± 616 milliseconds(2)). During Q, RT, W, and AT, neither HF powers (range, 509 to 927 milliseconds(2)) nor LF:HF ratios (range, 4.1 to 6.2) differed significantly. The HR during RT was highly correlated with LF power (R(2) = 0.979), and HR during AT was moderately correlated with the LF:HF ratio (R(2) = 0.477). In horses, HR and HRV indices during RT and AT differed, suggesting that exposure to different stressors results in different autonomic nervous influences on HR.

  5. Radiation dates of holocene shorelines in Peninsula Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tjia, H.D.; Kigoshi, K.

    1977-01-01

    Fifteen newly determined radiocarbon dates indicate the presence of former shorelines up to 3 meters above present high tide level in the tectonically stable Peninsula of Malaysia. The sea level indicators consist of oysters in growth position (9 samples), molluscs in beach deposits (2), corals in growth position (3), and beachrock (1). In the Peninsula living oysters occur up to or slightly above high tide, modern beach deposits may occur as high as 1.5 meters above high tide, and corals live up to low tide level. The literature shows that high tide, and corals live up to low tide level. The literature shows that beachrock marks intertidal zones. Combined with seven previously published ages of raised shorelines in the region, strong evidence is presented for one or more high Holocene, eustatic sea level stands in the continental part of Southeast Asia. Periods of high sea levels occur between 2500 and 2900 yr BP, and between 4200 and 5700 yr BP. There is also some indication of high sea level between 8300 and 9500 yr BP. (author)

  6. The Timing and Direction of Statutory Tax Rate Changes by the Canadian Provinces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ergete Ferede

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Tax rate changes are some of the most significant and far-reaching decisions a government can take. A good understanding of the odds of any such changes is essential for any business debating the timing and location of investments. This paper investigates the factors that affect the timing of statutory tax rate changes by Canadian provincial governments. The authors develop a simple theoretical model to explain the “stickiness” of tax rates — the factors that lead a province to decide against tinkering with the tax system — based on the presence of fixed costs of adjusting tax rates. The results indicate that if the current rate falls within a range of tax rates bracketing the optimal rate, then the government will not adjust its tax rate because the cost of the reform outweighs the potential benefits. To build up a body of evidence, this paper employs a multinomial logit model to examine the likelihood of changes to personal income tax (PIT, corporate income tax (CIT, and provincial sales tax (PST rates by provincial governments over the period 1973-2010. Regression results indicate that provincial governments that start with higher tax rates are more likely to cut, and less likely to raise, their tax rates. A higher provincial budget deficit reduces the probability of a CIT rate cut and raises the probability of a PST rate increase. Party ideology seems to matter. Provinces with leftleaning governments are less likely to cut PIT and PST rates, and more likely to raise PIT rates compared to non-left-leaning governments. The authors also find that a federal PIT rate cut raises the probability of a provincial PIT rate increase, whereas a federal CIT rate cut raises the probability of a provincial CIT rate reduction.

  7. Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, M.E.

    2008-01-01

    The pivotal question in the debate on the ecological effects of climate change is whether species will be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with their changing environment. If we establish the maximal rate of adaptation, this will set an upper limit to the rate at which temperatures can increase

  8. Bioremediation of diesel from a rocky shoreline in an arid tropical climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerin, Turlough F

    2015-10-15

    A non invasive sampling and remediation strategy was developed and implemented at shoreline contaminated with spilt diesel. To treat the contamination, in a practical, cost-effective, and safe manner (to personnel working on the stockpiles and their ship loading activity), a non-invasive sampling and remediation strategy was designed and implemented since the location and nature of the impacted geology (rock fill) and sediment, precluded conventional ex-situ and any in-situ treatment where drilling is required. A bioremediation process using surfactant, and added N & P and increased aeration, increased the degradation rate allowing the site owner to meet their regulatory obligations. Petroleum hydrocarbons decreased from saturation concentrations to less than detectable amounts at the completion of treatment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Estimation of Uncertainty in Tracer Gas Measurement of Air Change Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atsushi Iizuka

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Simple and economical measurement of air change rates can be achieved with a passive-type tracer gas doser and sampler. However, this is made more complex by the fact many buildings are not a single fully mixed zone. This means many measurements are required to obtain information on ventilation conditions. In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty of tracer gas measurement of air change rate in n completely mixed zones. A single measurement with one tracer gas could be used to simply estimate the air change rate when n = 2. Accurate air change rates could not be obtained for n ≥ 2 due to a lack of information. However, the proposed method can be used to estimate an air change rate with an accuracy of

  10. Technical changes and the rate of profit in the Canadian wood, furniture, and paper industries

    OpenAIRE

    M Webber; S Tonkin

    1988-01-01

    In this paper the rate of profit is examined and the components of changes in the rate of profit are identified in the wood, furniture, and paper industries of Canada for the years 1952 to 1981. The rate of profit in the wood industry generally rose, until a dramatic fall since 1979 onwards; this fall was largely due to a collapse of market prices and to the effects of that collapse on the technical composition of capital (via changes in the rate of capacity utilization). Profit rates in the ...

  11. 78 FR 67393 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-12

    ... Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate...

  12. 7 CFR 1951.241 - Special provision for interest rate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Special provision for interest rate change. 1951.241... Community and Direct Business Programs Loans and Grants § 1951.241 Special provision for interest rate... interest rate charged by FmHA or its successor agency under Public Law 103-354 to water and waste disposal...

  13. Field Test Evaluation of Effect on Cone Resistance Caused by Change in Penetration Rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Rikke; Nielsen, Benjaminn Nordahl; Ibsen, Lars Bo

    2012-01-01

    in the laboratory. A change in the measured cone resistance occurs by lowering the penetration rate. This is caused by the changes in drainage conditions. Compared to the normal penetration rate of 20 mm/s, this paper illustrates that lowering the penetration rate leads to an increase in the cone resistance from 1......This paper presents how a change in cone penetration rate affects the measured cone resistance during cone penetration testing in silty soils. Regardless of soil, type the standard rate of penetration is 20 mm/s and it is generally accepted that undrained penetration occurs in clay while drained...... penetration occurs in sand. In intermediate soils such as silty soils, the standard cone penetration rate may result in drainage conditions varying from undrained to partially or fully drained conditions. Field cone penetrations tests have been conducted with different penetration rates on a test site...

  14. Examining the reaction of monetary policy to exchange rate changes: A nonlinear ARDL approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manogaran, Lavaneesvari; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-04-01

    Previous studies showed the exchange rate changes can have significant impacts on macroeconomic performance. Over fluctuation of exchange rate may lead to economic instability. Hence, monetary policy rule tends to react to exchange rate changes. Especially, in emerging economies where the policy-maker tends to limit the exchange rate movement through interventions. In this study, we seek to investigate how the monetary policy rule reacts to exchange rate changes. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on monetary policy reaction function (interest rate). We focus the study in ASEAN5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore). The results indicated the existence of asymmetric effect of exchange rates changes on the monetary reaction function for all ASEAN5 countries in the long-run. Where, in majority of the cases the monetary policy is reacting to the appreciation and depreciation of exchange rate by raising the policy rate. This affirms the intervention of policymakers with the `fear of floating' behavior.

  15. Risk Assessment of Failure of Outdoor High Voltage Polluted Insulators under Combined Stresses Near Shoreline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Majid Hussain

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the various effects of climate conditions on outdoor insulators in coastal areas as a result of saline contamination under acidic and normal cold fog, determining significant electrical and physico-chemical changes on the insulator surface and considering the effect of discharge current, electric field distribution and surface roughness. To replicate similar conditions near the shoreline, experimental investigations have been carried out on insulation materials with the combined application of saline contamination and acidic or normal cold fog. The test samples included silicone rubber (SiR, ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM and high-density polyethylene (HDPE, which were used as reference. The materials are of the same composition as those used in real-life outdoor high voltage insulators. All samples were aged separately in an environmental chamber for 150 h for various saline contaminations combined with acidic and normal cold fog, and were generated by means of the adopted experimental setup. This analysis represented conditions similar to those existing near the shoreline exposed to saline and acid spray during winter and early spring. Electric field and discharge current along polymeric samples were examined under acidic and normal cold fog. Fourier transform infrared (FTIR spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopic (SEM were used to probe the physico-chemical changes on the samples surface and investigate the hydrophobicity recovery property after aging tests. Finally, a comparative study was carried out on polymeric samples before and after being exposed to the acidic and normal cold fog based on the results obtained from the experiment. Research data may provide references for the better prediction of surface degradation as well as for the better material coating and design of external insulation.

  16. Soil erosion and deposition in the new shorelines of the Three Gorges Reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xiaolei; Nilsson, Christer; Pilotto, Francesca; Liu, Songping; Shi, Shaohua; Zeng, Bo

    2017-12-01

    During the last few decades, the construction of storage reservoirs worldwide has led to the formation of many new shorelines in former upland areas. After the formation of such shorelines, a dynamic phase of soil erosion and deposition follows. We explored the factors regulating soil dynamics in the shorelines of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) on the Yangtze River in China. We selected four study sites on the main stem and three on the tributaries in the upstream parts of the reservoir, and evaluated whether the sites close to the backwater tail (the point at which the river meets the reservoir) had more soil deposition than the sites far from the backwater tail. We also tested whether soil erosion differed between the main stem and the tributaries and across shorelines. We found that soil deposition in the new shorelines was higher close to the backwater tail and decreased downstream. Soil erosion was higher in the main stem than in the tributaries and higher at lower compared to higher shoreline altitudes. In the tributaries, erosion did not differ between higher and lower shoreline levels. Erosion increased with increasing fetch length, inundation duration and distance from the backwater tail, and decreased with increasing soil particle fineness. Our results provide a basis for identifying shorelines in need of restorative or protective measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Comparing Fuzzy Sets and Random Sets to Model the Uncertainty of Fuzzy Shorelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewi, Ratna Sari; Bijker, Wietske; Stein, Alfred

    2017-01-01

    This paper addresses uncertainty modelling of shorelines by comparing fuzzy sets and random sets. Both methods quantify extensional uncertainty of shorelines extracted from remote sensing images. Two datasets were tested: pan-sharpened Pleiades with four bands (Pleiades) and pan-sharpened Pleiades

  18. TOXICITY TRENDS DURING AN OIL SPILL BIOREMEDIATION EXPERIMENT ON A SANDY SHORELINE IN DELAWARE, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    A 13-week, refereed, inter-agency toxicity testing program involving five bioassay methods was used to document the effectiveness of shoreline bioremediation to accelerate toxicity reduction of an oiled sandy shoreline at Fowler Beach, Delaware, USA. The study was part of an inte...

  19. Impact of an offshore wind farm on wave conditions and shoreline development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Erik Damgaard; Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Deigaard, Rolf

    2014-01-01

    the shoreline’s sensitivity to the distance from the OWF to the shoreline was studied. The effect of the reduced wind speed inside and on the lee side of the offshore wind farm was incorporated in a parameterized way in a spectral wind wave model. The shoreline impact was studied with a one-line model....

  20. Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

    2016-01-01

    The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

  1. Resonance of about-weekly human heart rate rhythm with solar activity change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornelissen, G; Halberg, F; Wendt, H W; Bingham, C; Sothern, R B; Haus, E; Kleitman, E; Kleitman, N; Revilla, M A; Revilla, M; Breus, T K; Pimenov, K; Grigoriev, A E; Mitish, M D; Yatsyk, G V; Syutkina, E V

    1996-12-01

    In several human adults, certain solar activity rhythms may influence an about 7-day rhythm in heart rate. When no about-weekly feature was found in the rate of change in sunspot area, a measure of solar activity, the double amplitude of a circadian heart rate rhythm, approximated by the fit of a 7-day cosine curve, was lower, as was heart rate corresponds to about-weekly features in solar activity and/or relates to a sunspot cycle.

  2. Field guide for the protection and cleanup of oiled Arctic shorelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.

    1996-01-01

    Practical suggestions for the protection, treatment and cleanup of oiled shorelines during summer and open-water conditions are described. This manual was developed as a field guide to be used during spill response operations for the rapid identification of shoreline response options. Special attention is given to techniques that are normally available and appropriate for shoreline types and coastal environmental setting that are typical of Arctic regions. The guide is divided into four main sections: (1) shoreline protection, (2) treatment strategy by shoreline type, (3) treatment or cleanup methods, and (4) response strategies for specific environments. The importance of the type and volume of oil spilled, and the environmental factors that should be taken into account in the event of a spill (time of year, weather, ice and wave conditions) are stressed. The presence of sensitive resources such as wildlife, fish stocks, plant communities and human-use activities are also considered. tabs., figs

  3. Land-cover types, shoreline positions, and sand extents derived From Landsat satellite imagery, Assateague Island to Metompkin Island, Maryland and Virginia, 1984 to 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernier, Julie C.; Douglas, Steven H.; Terrano, Joseph F.; Barras, John A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Smith, Christopher G.

    2015-12-17

    The U.S. Geological Survey has a long history of responding to and documenting the impacts of storms along the Nation’s coasts and incorporating these data into storm impact and coastal change vulnerability assessments. These studies, however, have traditionally focused on sandy shorelines and sandy barrier-island systems, without consideration of impacts to coastal wetlands. The goal of the Barrier Island and Estuarine Wetland Physical Change Assessment project is to integrate a wetland-change assessment with existing coastal-change assessments for the adjacent sandy dunes and beaches, initially focusing on Assateague Island along the Maryland and Virginia coastline. Assateague Island was impacted by waves and storm surge associated with the passage of Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, including erosion and overwash along the ocean-facing sandy shoreline as well as erosion and overwash deposition in the back-barrier and estuarine bay environments.

  4. The management of shoreline protection and treatment operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.

    1996-01-01

    The management of shoreline cleaning operations in the event of an oil spill, was discussed. An eight-step approach was introduced which was based on the definition of objectives and strategies. The discussion included evaluation of the feasibility of each of these strategies, as well as the effects of the proposed actions. It was emphasized that apart from natural recovery, any response action will have an effect either directly, by the protection or treatment actions, or indirectly, by the support actions, on the shore zone or the adjacent backshore. The main purpose of a response is to accelerate natural recovery. This new response approach can be an effective management tool, since the use of standard terms and strategy statements give operations personnel a well defined set of instruction which reduce the potential for misinterpretation. 4 refs., 9 figs

  5. Dose-rate effects and chronological changes of chromosome aberration rates in spleen cells from mice that are chronically exposed to gamma-ray at low dose rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Kimio; Kohda, Atsushi; Ichinohe, Kazuaki; Matsumoto, Tsuneya; Oghiso, Yoichi

    2006-01-01

    Dose-rate effects have not been examined in the low dose-rate regions of less than 60-600 mGy/h. Mice were chronically exposed to gamma-ray at 20 mGy/day (approximately 1 mGy/h) up to 700 days and at 1 mGy/day (approximately 0.05 mGy/h) for 500 days under SPF conditions. Chronological changes of chromosome aberration rates in spleen cells were observed along with accumulated doses at both low dose-rates. Unstable aberrations increased in a biphasic manner within 0-2 Gy and 4-14 Gy in 20 mGy/day irradiation. They slightly increased up to 0.5 Gy in 1 mGy/day irradiation. Chromosome aberration rates at 20 mGy/day and 1 mGy/day were compared at the same total doses of 0.5 Gy and 0.25 Gy. They were 2.0 vs. 0.53, and 1.0 vs. 0.47 respectively. Thus, dose-rate effects were observed in these low dose-rate regions. (author)

  6. Megascale rhythmic shoreline forms on a beach with multiple bars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbigniew Pruszak

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The study, carried out in 2003 and 2006 at the Lubiatowo Coastal ResearchStation (Poland, located on the non-tidal southern Baltic coast(tidal range < 0.06 m, focused on larger rhythmic forms (mega-cusps withwavelengths in the interval 500 m > Lc > 20 m. Statistical analyses of detailed shoreline configurations were performed mostly with the Discrete Wavelet Transformmethod (DWT. The beach is composed of fine sand with grain diameter D50 ≈ 0.22 mm, which produces 4 longshore sandbars and a gently sloping seabed with β = 0.015. The analysis confirms the key role of bars in hydro- and morphodynamic surf zone processes.The hypothesis was therefore set up that, in a surf zone with multiple bars, the bars and mega-scale shoreline rhythmic forms form one integrated physical system; experimental evidence to substantiate this hypothesis was also sought.In such a system not only do self-regulation processes include swash zone phenomena, they also incorporate processes in offshore surf zone locations.The longshore dimensions of large cusps are thus related to the distances between periodically active large bed forms (bars. The spatial dimension of bar system activity (number of active bars depends, at a given time scale, on the associated hydrodynamic conditions. It was assumed that such a time scale could include either the development and duration of a storm, or a period of stable, yet distinct waves, capable of remodelling the beach configuration.The indentation to wavelength ratio of mega-cusps for the studied non-tidal dissipative environment may be one order of magnitude greater than for mesotidal, reflective beaches.

  7. Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato

    2008-02-05

    The rate of change of climate codetermines the global warming impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems and their capabilities to adapt. Establishing past rates of climate change from temperature proxy data remains difficult given their limited spatiotemporal resolution. In contrast, past greenhouse gas radiative forcing, causing climate to change, is well known from ice cores. We compare rates of change of anthropogenic forcing with rates of natural greenhouse gas forcing since the Last Glacial Maximum and of solar and volcanic forcing of the last millennium. The smoothing of atmospheric variations by the enclosure process of air into ice is computed with a firn diffusion and enclosure model. The 20th century increase in CO(2) and its radiative forcing occurred more than an order of magnitude faster than any sustained change during the past 22,000 years. The average rate of increase in the radiative forcing not just from CO(2) but from the combination of CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O is larger during the Industrial Era than during any comparable period of at least the past 16,000 years. In addition, the decadal-to-century scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is unusually high in the context of the natural forcing variations (solar and volcanoes) of the past millennium. Our analysis implies that global climate change, which is anthropogenic in origin, is progressing at a speed that is unprecedented at least during the last 22,000 years.

  8. New England observed and predicted August stream/river temperature maximum daily rate of change points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted August stream/river temperature maximum negative rate of change in New England based on a...

  9. Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, David B; Eichenseer, Kilian; Kiessling, Wolfgang

    2015-11-10

    Recently observed rates of environmental change are typically much higher than those inferred for the geological past. At the same time, the magnitudes of ancient changes were often substantially greater than those established in recent history. The most pertinent disparity, however, between recent and geological rates is the timespan over which the rates are measured, which typically differ by several orders of magnitude. Here we show that rates of marked temperature changes inferred from proxy data in Earth history scale with measurement timespan as an approximate power law across nearly six orders of magnitude (10(2) to >10(7) years). This scaling reveals how climate signals measured in the geological record alias transient variability, even during the most pronounced climatic perturbations of the Phanerozoic. Our findings indicate that the true attainable pace of climate change on timescales of greatest societal relevance is underestimated in geological archives.

  10. 75 FR 73861 - Change in Rates and Classes of General Applicability for Competitive Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-29

    ... percent for parcels picked up at a return Network Distribution Center (RNDC) and 8.0 percent for parcels... Part III Postal Service Change in Rates and Classes of General Applicability for Competitive...; [[Page 73862

  11. Robotic crabs reveal that female fiddler crabs are sensitive to changes in male display rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mowles, Sophie L; Jennions, Michael D; Backwell, Patricia R Y

    2018-01-01

    Males often produce dynamic, repetitive courtship displays that can be demanding to perform and might advertise male quality to females. A key feature of demanding displays is that they can change in intensity: escalating as a male increases his signalling effort, but de-escalating as a signaller becomes fatigued. Here, we investigated whether female fiddler crabs, Uca mjoebergi , are sensitive to changes in male courtship wave rate. We performed playback experiments using robotic male crabs that had the same mean wave rate, but either escalated, de-escalated or remained constant. Females demonstrated a strong preference for escalating robots, but showed mixed responses to robots that de-escalated ('fast' to 'slow') compared to those that waved at a constant 'medium' rate. These findings demonstrate that females can discern changes in male display rate, and prefer males that escalate, but that females are also sensitive to past display rates indicative of prior vigour. © 2018 The Authors.

  12. Reinforcer magnitude and rate dependency: evaluation of resistance-to-change mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinkston, Jonathan W; Ginsburg, Brett C; Lamb, Richard J

    2014-10-01

    Under many circumstances, reinforcer magnitude appears to modulate the rate-dependent effects of drugs such that when schedules arrange for relatively larger reinforcer magnitudes rate dependency is attenuated compared with behavior maintained by smaller magnitudes. The current literature on resistance to change suggests that increased reinforcer density strengthens operant behavior, and such strengthening effects appear to extend to the temporal control of behavior. As rate dependency may be understood as a loss of temporal control, the effects of reinforcer magnitude on rate dependency may be due to increased resistance to disruption of temporally controlled behavior. In the present experiments, pigeons earned different magnitudes of grain during signaled components of a multiple FI schedule. Three drugs, clonidine, haloperidol, and morphine, were examined. All three decreased overall rates of key pecking; however, only the effects of clonidine were attenuated as reinforcer magnitude increased. An analysis of within-interval performance found rate-dependent effects for clonidine and morphine; however, these effects were not modulated by reinforcer magnitude. In addition, we included prefeeding and extinction conditions, standard tests used to measure resistance to change. In general, rate-decreasing effects of prefeeding and extinction were attenuated by increasing reinforcer magnitudes. Rate-dependent analyses of prefeeding showed rate-dependency following those tests, but in no case were these effects modulated by reinforcer magnitude. The results suggest that a resistance-to-change interpretation of the effects of reinforcer magnitude on rate dependency is not viable.

  13. Tax Planning by Mutual Funds: Evidence From Changes in the Capital Gains Tax Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Feng; Kraft, Arthur; Weiss, Ira

    2011-01-01

    We investigate whether mutual funds engage in tax planning by testing how they respond to changes in the capital gains tax rates. While previous evidence suggests that individual investors time capital gains realizations, mutual fund managers may not tax plan like individuals because fund managers have incentives to consider the tax liability of both current and potential investors. Our analysis spans over 44 years and six major tax changes, allowing us to examine the effects of both tax rate...

  14. Predicting protein folding rate change upon point mutation using residue-level coevolutionary information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallik, Saurav; Das, Smita; Kundu, Sudip

    2016-01-01

    Change in folding kinetics of globular proteins upon point mutation is crucial to a wide spectrum of biological research, such as protein misfolding, toxicity, and aggregations. Here we seek to address whether residue-level coevolutionary information of globular proteins can be informative to folding rate changes upon point mutations. Generating residue-level coevolutionary networks of globular proteins, we analyze three parameters: relative coevolution order (rCEO), network density (ND), and characteristic path length (CPL). A point mutation is considered to be equivalent to a node deletion of this network and respective percentage changes in rCEO, ND, CPL are found linearly correlated (0.84, 0.73, and -0.61, respectively) with experimental folding rate changes. The three parameters predict the folding rate change upon a point mutation with 0.031, 0.045, and 0.059 standard errors, respectively. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Fast shoreline erosion induced by ship wakes in a coastal lagoon: Field evidence and remote sensing analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Zaggia

    Full Text Available An investigation based on in-situ surveys combined with remote sensing and GIS analysis revealed fast shoreline retreat on the side of a major waterway, the Malamocco Marghera Channel, in the Lagoon of Venice, Italy. Monthly and long-term regression rates caused by ship wakes in a reclaimed industrial area were considered. The short-term analysis, based on field surveys carried out between April 2014 and January 2015, revealed that the speed of shoreline regression was insignificantly dependent on the distance from the navigation channel, but was not constant through time. Periods of high water levels due to tidal forcing or storm surges, more common in the winter season, are characterized by faster regression rates. The retreat is a discontinuous process in time and space depending on the morpho-stratigraphy and the vegetation cover of the artificial deposits. A GIS analysis performed with the available imagery shows an average retreat of 3-4 m/yr in the period between 1974 and 2015. Digitization of historical maps and bathymetric surveys made in April 2015 enabled the construction of two digital terrain models for both past and present situations. The two models have been used to calculate the total volume of sediment lost during the period 1968-2015 (1.19×106 m3. The results show that in the presence of heavy ship traffic, ship-channel interactions can dominate the morphodynamics of a waterway and its margins. The analysis enables a better understanding of how shallow-water systems react to the human activities in the post-industrial period. An adequate evaluation of the temporal and spatial variation of shoreline position is also crucial for the development of future scenarios and for the sustainable management port traffic worldwide.

  16. Fast shoreline erosion induced by ship wakes in a coastal lagoon: Field evidence and remote sensing analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaggia, Luca; Lorenzetti, Giuliano; Manfé, Giorgia; Scarpa, Gian Marco; Molinaroli, Emanuela; Parnell, Kevin Ellis; Rapaglia, John Paul; Gionta, Maria; Soomere, Tarmo

    2017-01-01

    An investigation based on in-situ surveys combined with remote sensing and GIS analysis revealed fast shoreline retreat on the side of a major waterway, the Malamocco Marghera Channel, in the Lagoon of Venice, Italy. Monthly and long-term regression rates caused by ship wakes in a reclaimed industrial area were considered. The short-term analysis, based on field surveys carried out between April 2014 and January 2015, revealed that the speed of shoreline regression was insignificantly dependent on the distance from the navigation channel, but was not constant through time. Periods of high water levels due to tidal forcing or storm surges, more common in the winter season, are characterized by faster regression rates. The retreat is a discontinuous process in time and space depending on the morpho-stratigraphy and the vegetation cover of the artificial deposits. A GIS analysis performed with the available imagery shows an average retreat of 3-4 m/yr in the period between 1974 and 2015. Digitization of historical maps and bathymetric surveys made in April 2015 enabled the construction of two digital terrain models for both past and present situations. The two models have been used to calculate the total volume of sediment lost during the period 1968-2015 (1.19×106 m3). The results show that in the presence of heavy ship traffic, ship-channel interactions can dominate the morphodynamics of a waterway and its margins. The analysis enables a better understanding of how shallow-water systems react to the human activities in the post-industrial period. An adequate evaluation of the temporal and spatial variation of shoreline position is also crucial for the development of future scenarios and for the sustainable management port traffic worldwide.

  17. Estimating the rates of mass change, ice volume change and snow volume change in Greenland from ICESat and GRACE data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slobbe, D.C.; Ditmar, P.G.; Lindenbergh, R.C.

    2008-01-01

    The focus of this paper is on the quantification of ongoing mass and volume changes over the Greenland ice sheet. For that purpose, we used elevation changes derived from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimetry mission and monthly variations of the Earth’s gravity field

  18. Back-island and open-ocean shorelines, and sand areas of Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia, April 12, 1989, to September 5, 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guy, Kristy K.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the physical change to shorelines and wetlands is critical in determining the resiliency of wetland systems that protect adjacent habitat and communities. The wetland and back-barrier shorelines of Assateague Island, located in Maryland and Virginia, changed as a result of wave action and storm surge that occurred during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program, the impact of Hurricane Sandy will be assessed and placed in its historical context to understand the future vulnerability of wetland systems. Making these assessments will rely on data extracted from current and historical resources such as maps, aerial photographs, satellite imagery, and lidar elevation data, which document physical changes over time.

  19. 78 FR 1277 - International Product Change-Global Expedited Package Services-Non-Published Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-08

    ... POSTAL SERVICE International Product Change--Global Expedited Package Services-- Non-Published...-- Non-Published Rates 4 (GEPS-NPR 4) to the Competitive Products List. DATES: Effective date: January 8... add Global Expedited Package Services-- Non-Published Rates 4 (GEPS-NPR 4) to the Competitive Products...

  20. 76 FR 396 - Product Change-Priority Mail-Non-Published Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-04

    ... POSTAL SERVICE Product Change--Priority Mail--Non-Published Rates AGENCY: Postal Service TM . ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: Postal Service notice of filing of a request with the Postal Regulatory... States Postal Service Concerning Priority Mail--Non-Published Rates and Notice of Filing Materials Under...

  1. Embryonic development rates of northern grasshoppers (Orthoptera: Acrididae): implications for climate change and habitat management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temperature-dependent rates of embryonic development are a primary determinant of the life cycle of many species of grasshoppers which, in cold climates, spend two winters in the egg stage. Knowledge of embryonic developmental rates is important for an assessment of the effects of climate change and...

  2. 78 FR 16706 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-18

    ... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

  3. 75 FR 8106 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-23

    ... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

  4. 75 FR 82066 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-29

    ... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

  5. 76 FR 73674 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-29

    ... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

  6. 47 CFR 76.1603 - Customer service-rate and service changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... both subscribers and local franchising authorities before implementing any rate or service change. Such... franchising authority. (e) To the extent the operator is required to provide notice of service and rate..., or franchising authority on the transaction between the operator and the subscriber. Note 1 to § 76...

  7. Biomass is the main driver of changes in ecosystem process rates during tropical forest succession

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lohbeck, M.W.M.; Poorter, L.; Martinez-Ramos, M.; Bongers, F.

    2015-01-01

    Over half of the world's forests are disturbed, and the rate at which ecosystem processes recover after disturbance is important for the services these forests can provide. We analyze the drivers' underlying changes in rates of key ecosystem processes (biomass productivity, litter productivity,

  8. Changes in hospitalization rate and mortality after acute myocardial infarction in Denmark after diagnostic criteria and methods changed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildstrøm, Steen Zabell; Rasmussen, Søren; Madsen, Mette

    2004-01-01

    AIMS: To analyse the effect of the change in diagnostic criteria for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and the use of troponin as a diagnostic marker on the hospitalization rate and mortality of hospitalized AMI patients from 1994 to 2001. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients (> or =30 years) admitted...... for their first AMI were identified using the National Patient Registry in Denmark. We registered when each hospital introduced troponin as a diagnostic marker. The reported hospitalization rate decreased until 1998 and then increased substantially from 1999 to 2001 from 3472 to 4163 per million inhabitants (19.......9%) for men and from 1648 to 2020 per million inhabitants (22.6%) for women. Troponin use was associated with a significant 14% increase in hospitalization rate in this period [rate ratio 1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-1.18]. The effect of troponin was greatest among patients 70 years and older (rate...

  9. A Model of Target Changes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Pierluigi Balduzzi; Giuseppe Bertola; Silverio Foresi

    1993-01-01

    We explore the effects of official targeting policy on the term-structure of nominal interest rates, adapting relevant insights from theoretical work on "peso problems" to account for realistic infrequency of target changes. Our analysis of daily U.S. interest rates and newly available historical targets provides an interpretation for persistent spreads between short-term money-market rates and overnight fed-funds targets, and for the poor performance of expectations-hypothesis tests: it is t...

  10. Growth rate change driven by external perturbation in the azuki bean weevil

    CERN Document Server

    Fukano, T

    2003-01-01

    In laboratory experiments we obtain that the apparent growth rate of the population becomes larger than one under the normal condition, triggered by the external perturbation as the removal of individuals. The changed growth rate is stable for a while. We also propose a simple model of population dynamics allowing both matching and mis-matching the trend of the external perturbation, and show that the growth rate of the model population is changeable and stable to some extent.

  11. Growth rate change driven by external perturbation in the azuki bean weevil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukano, Takao; Gunji, Yukio-Pegio

    2003-01-01

    In laboratory experiments we obtain that the apparent growth rate of the population becomes larger than one under the normal condition, triggered by the external perturbation as the removal of individuals. The changed growth rate is stable for a while. We also propose a simple model of population dynamics allowing both matching and mis-matching the trend of the external perturbation, and show that the growth rate of the model population is changeable and stable to some extent

  12. 39 CFR 3010.23 - Calculation of percentage change in rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... DOMINANT PRODUCTS Rules for Applying the Price Cap § 3010.23 Calculation of percentage change in rates. (a... Postal Service billing determinants. The Postal Service shall make reasonable adjustments to the billing determinants to account for the effects of classification changes such as the introduction, deletion, or...

  13. Maturation of cortical mismatch responses to occasional pitch change in early infancy: effects of presentation rate and magnitude of change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chao; Hotson, Lisa; Trainor, Laurel J

    2009-01-01

    Previous studies have reported two types of event-related potential (ERP) mismatch responses in infants to infrequent auditory changes: a broad discriminative positivity in younger infants and a negativity resembling adult mismatch negativity (MMN) in older infants. In the present study, we investigated whether the positive discriminative slow wave and the adult-like MMN are functionally distinct by examining how they are affected by presentation rate and magnitude of change. We measured ERPs from adults, 2-month-olds, and 4-month-olds to a repeating piano tone (standard) that occasionally changed in pitch (deviant). The pitch changes between standards and deviants were either small (1/12 octave) or large (1/2 octave) in magnitude, and the stimulus presentation rate was either slow (800 ms SOA) or fast (400 ms SOA). As the presentation rate increased, both adults and 4-month-olds showed an MMN response that decreased in latency, but was unaffected in amplitude. As the magnitude of the pitch change increased, MMN increased in amplitude. On the other hand, only a broad positive mismatch response was seen in 2-month-olds. As the presentation rate increased, 2-month-olds' responses to standard tones decreased in amplitude while their responses to deviant tones were unaffected. The magnitude of the pitch change did not affect 2-month-olds' responses. These results suggest that pitch is processed differently in auditory cortex by 2-month-olds and 4-month-olds, and that a cortical change-detection mechanism for pitch discrimination similar to that of adults emerges between 2 and 4 months of age.

  14. Continental Shelf Morphology and Stratigraphy Offshore San Onofre, CA: The Interplay Between Rates of Eustatic Change and Sediment Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotsko, Shannon; Driscoll, Neal W.; Kent, Graham; Brothers, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    New high-resolution CHIRP seismic data acquired offshore San Onofre, southern California reveal that shelf sediment distribution and thickness are primarily controlled by eustatic sea level rise and sediment supply. Throughout the majority of the study region, a prominent abrasion platform and associated shoreline cutoff are observed in the subsurface from ~ 72 to 53 m below present sea level. These erosional features appear to have formed between Melt Water Pulse 1A and Melt Water Pulse 1B, when the rate of sea-level rise was lower. There are three distinct sedimentary units mapped above a regional angular unconformity interpreted to be the Holocene transgressive surface in the seismic data. Unit I, the deepest unit, is interpreted as a lag deposit that infills a topographic low associated with an abrasion platform. Unit I thins seaward by downlap and pinches out landward against the shoreline cutoff. Unit II is a mid-shelf lag deposit formed from shallower eroded material and thins seaward by downlap and landward by onlap. The youngest, Unit III, is interpreted to represent modern sediment deposition. Faults in the study area do not appear to offset the transgressive surface. The Newport Inglewood/Rose Canyon fault system is active in other regions to the south (e.g., La Jolla) where it offsets the transgressive surface and creates seafloor relief. Several shoals observed along the transgressive surface could record minor deformation due to fault activity in the study area. Nevertheless, our preferred interpretation is that the shoals are regions more resistant to erosion during marine transgression. The Cristianitos fault zone also causes a shoaling of the transgressive surface. This may be from resistant antecedent topography due to an early phase of compression on the fault. The Cristianitos fault zone was previously defined as a down-to-the-north normal fault, but the folding and faulting architecture imaged in the CHIRP data are more consistent with a

  15. Detection of Oil near Shorelines during the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Garcia-Pineda

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available During any marine oil spill, floating oil slicks that reach shorelines threaten a wide array of coastal habitats. To assess the presence of oil near shorelines during the Deepwater Horizon (DWH oil spill, we scanned the library of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR imagery collected during the event to determine which images intersected shorelines and appeared to contain oil. In total, 715 SAR images taken during the DWH spill were analyzed and processed, with 188 of the images clearly showing oil. Of these, 156 SAR images showed oil within 10 km of the shoreline with appropriate weather conditions for the detection of oil on SAR data. We found detectable oil in SAR images within 10 km of the shoreline from west Louisiana to west Florida, including near beaches, marshes, and islands. The high number of SAR images collected in Barataria Bay, Louisiana in 2010 allowed for the creation of a nearshore oiling persistence map. This analysis shows that, in some areas inside Barataria Bay, floating oil was detected on as many as 29 different days in 2010. The nearshore areas with persistent floating oil corresponded well with areas where ground survey crews discovered heavy shoreline oiling. We conclude that satellite-based SAR imagery can detect oil slicks near shorelines, even in sheltered areas. These data can help assess potential shoreline oil exposure without requiring boats or aircraft. This method can be particularly helpful when shoreline assessment crews are hampered by difficult access or, in the case of DWH, a particularly large spatial and temporal spill extent.

  16. The Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Changes to Import Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Ketelsen, Uwe; Kortelainen, Mika

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the empirical relevance of exchange rate pass-through for Finland, Sweden and Denmark during the period 1980–1994. Further, we attempt to determine if there has been a structural change in the pass-through relationship in the1990s. We find that about half the changes in exchange rates and world prices are passed through to import prices within one year, and three-quarters of such changes are passed through to import prices in two years. Moreover, there are no major di...

  17. On changing points of mean residual life and failure rate function for some generalized Weibull distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie, M.; Goh, T.N.; Tang, Y.

    2004-01-01

    The failure rate function and mean residual life function are two important characteristics in reliability analysis. Although many papers have studied distributions with bathtub-shaped failure rate and their properties, few have focused on the underlying associations between the mean residual life and failure rate function of these distributions, especially with respect to their changing points. It is known that the change point for mean residual life can be much earlier than that of failure rate function. In fact, the failure rate function should be flat for a long period of time for a distribution to be useful in practice. When the difference between the change points is large, the flat portion tends to be longer. This paper investigates the change points and focuses on the difference of the changing points. The exponentiated Weibull, a modified Weibull, and an extended Weibull distribution, all with bathtub-shaped failure rate function will be used. Some other issues related to the flatness of the bathtub curve are discussed

  18. Rates of change of the earth's magnetic field measured by recent analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, C. G. A.; Huang, Qilin

    1990-01-01

    Typical rates of change of the earth's magnetic field are presented as a function of the earth's spherical harmonics. Harmonics up to the eight degree are analyzed. With the increase in the degree of the harmonics an increase in the relative rate of change can be observed. For higher degrees, the rate of change can be predicted. This enables a differentiation between harmonics originating in the core and harmonics caused by crustal magnetization. The westward drift of the magnetic field depends on the longitudinal gradient of the field. In order to determine the longitudinal motions, harmonics up to degree 20 can be utilized. The average rate of secular acceleration increases with the degree of harmonics from 0.001 deg/sq yr for a dipole term to an average of 0.05 deg/sq yr for degree eight harmonics.

  19. Demographic Change, Economic Conditions, and the Murder Rate: The Case of the Colombia, 1990 to 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Eduardo Sandoval

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent changes in the Colombian homicides rate not consider the change in the age distribution, inflation and unemployment that can explain how misery affects homicides in the long run. Therefore, from a relevant time period for Colombia can be analyzed if recent demographic transition given by a higher percentage of young population is a robust predictor of observed changes in the homicide rate along with a corresponding measure of misery given for the sum between unemployment rates and local inflation. This helps explain the long-term relationship between the age distribution in Colombia and rising homicide rates in the 90s along with the decrease in the latter part of the 2000s. It was found that there is a relationship between age and crime, as suggested by the classical literature and there is a long-term relationship between the homicides, misery and youth population density.

  20. Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, Alexander M.; Wang Fengzhong; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

    2010-01-01

    We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Commission meetings and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analog of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest-rate change at time T and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T)∼(t-T) -Ω , with Ω positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n ' (|t-T|) of 'preshocks' before the interest-rate change at time T. This study quantitatively relates the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and uncovers the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest-rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U.S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds effective rate. Our results are consistent with the 'sign effect', in which 'bad news' has a larger impact than 'good news'. Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a 'market under-reaction' that lasts at least one trading day.

  1. Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Alexander M; Wang, Fengzhong; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H Eugene

    2010-06-01

    We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Commission meetings and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analog of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest-rate change at time T and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T)∼(t-T)(-Ω) , with Ω positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n'(|t-T|) of "preshocks" before the interest-rate change at time T . This study quantitatively relates the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and uncovers the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest-rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U.S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds effective rate. Our results are consistent with the "sign effect," in which "bad news" has a larger impact than "good news." Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a "market under-reaction" that lasts at least one trading day.

  2. Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Alexander M.; Wang, Fengzhong; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2010-06-01

    We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Commission meetings and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analog of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest-rate change at time T and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T)˜(t-T)-Ω , with Ω positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n'(|t-T|) of “preshocks” before the interest-rate change at time T . This study quantitatively relates the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and uncovers the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest-rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U.S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds effective rate. Our results are consistent with the “sign effect,” in which “bad news” has a larger impact than “good news.” Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a “market under-reaction” that lasts at least one trading day.

  3. Morphological evolution of the southwestern Black Sea coast of Turkey since the early 2000s: medium- vs. short-term changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    LiBassi, Nick; Özener, Haluk; Otay, Emre; Doğru, Aslı

    2018-06-01

    Coastal zones are in a state of continual flux worldwide, due in part to seasonal factors and in part to influences operating over longer periods of time. Discerning changes on different timescales remains a challenge. This study compares shoreline position and nearshore bathymetry over a time interval of 16 years in order to determine the extent of medium-term changes in comparison with short-term changes along the southwestern Black Sea coast of Turkey near Kilyos. For this purpose the results of surveys completed in 2001 and 2002 are compared with data collected in December 2015, September 2016, and March 2017 at the same location using a differential global positioning system (DGPS) in real-time kinematic (RTK) configuration combined with echo-sounder profiling. Average shoreline recession over the 16-year period (medium term) has been estimated at 3-4 cm/year as opposed to an average of 9.5 m in the 12-month period from June 2001 to June 2002 (short term). The medium-term nearshore sediment loss has been approx. 100-125 m3/m shoreline since the early 2000s. Over the same period a prominent offshore bar has moved seaward at a maximum rate of 1 m/year since 2002. Considering the large discrepancy in the shoreline recession rates recorded in the short and medium term, this aspect must be taken into account in any integrated coastal zone management strategy.

  4. Daily changes in temperature, not the circadian clock, regulate growth rate in Brachypodium distachyon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominick A Matos

    Full Text Available Plant growth is commonly regulated by external cues such as light, temperature, water availability, and internal cues generated by the circadian clock. Changes in the rate of growth within the course of a day have been observed in the leaves, stems, and roots of numerous species. However, the relative impact of the circadian clock on the growth of grasses has not been thoroughly characterized. We examined the influence of diurnal temperature and light changes, and that of the circadian clock on leaf length growth patterns in Brachypodium distachyon using high-resolution time-lapse imaging. Pronounced changes in growth rate were observed under combined photocyles and thermocycles or with thermocycles alone. A considerably more rapid growth rate was observed at 28°C than 12°C, irrespective of the presence or absence of light. In spite of clear circadian clock regulated gene expression, plants exhibited no change in growth rate under conditions of constant light and temperature, and little or no effect under photocycles alone. Therefore, temperature appears to be the primary cue influencing observed oscillations in growth rate and not the circadian clock or photoreceptor activity. Furthermore, the size of the leaf meristem and final cell length did not change in response to changes in temperature. Therefore, the nearly five-fold difference in growth rate observed across thermocycles can be attributed to proportionate changes in the rate of cell division and expansion. A better understanding of the growth cues in B. distachyon will further our ability to model metabolism and biomass accumulation in grasses.

  5. The rate of change of vergence-accommodation conflict affects visual discomfort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Joohwan; Kane, David; Banks, Martin S

    2014-12-01

    Stereoscopic (S3D) displays create conflicts between the distance to which the eyes must converge and the distance to which the eyes must accommodate. Such conflicts require the viewer to overcome the normal coupling between vergence and accommodation, and this effort appears to cause viewer discomfort. Vergence-accommodation coupling is driven by the phasic components of the underlying control systems, and those components respond to relatively fast changes in vergence and accommodative stimuli. Given the relationship between phasic changes and vergence-accommodation coupling, we examined how the rate of change in the vergence-accommodation conflict affects viewer discomfort. We used a stereoscopic display that allows independent manipulation of the stimuli to vergence and accommodation. We presented stimuli that simulate natural viewing (i.e., vergence and accommodative stimuli changed together) and stimuli that simulate S3D viewing (i.e., vergence stimulus changes but accommodative stimulus remains fixed). The changes occurred at 0.01, 0.05, or 0.25 Hz. The lowest rate is too slow to stimulate the phasic components while the highest rate is well within the phasic range. The results were consistent with our expectation: somewhat greater discomfort was experienced when stimulus distance changed rapidly, particularly in S3D viewing when the vergence stimulus changed but the accommodative stimulus did not. These results may help in the generation of guidelines for the creation and viewing of stereo content with acceptable viewer comfort.

  6. Implementation of Online Promethee Method for Poor Family Change Rate Calculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aji, Dhady Lukito; Suryono; Widodo, Catur Edi

    2018-02-01

    This research has been done online calculation of the rate of poor family change rate by using Preference Ranking Method of Organization Of Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) .This system is very useful to monitor poverty in a region as well as for administrative services related to poverty rate. The system consists of computer clients and servers connected via the internet network. Poor family residence data obtained from the government. In addition, survey data are inputted through the client computer in each administrative village and also 23 criteria of input in accordance with the established government. The PROMETHEE method is used to evaluate the value of poverty and its weight is used to determine poverty status. PROMETHEE output can also be used to rank the poverty of the registered population of the server based on the netflow value. The poverty rate is calculated based on the current poverty rate compared to the previous poverty rate. The rate results can be viewed online and real time on the server through numbers and graphs. From the test results can be seen that the system can classify poverty status, calculate the poverty rate change rate and can determine the value and poverty ranking of each population.

  7. Implementation of Online Promethee Method for Poor Family Change Rate Calculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukito Aji Dhady

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This research has been done online calculation of the rate of poor family change rate by using Preference Ranking Method of Organization Of Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE .This system is very useful to monitor poverty in a region as well as for administrative services related to poverty rate. The system consists of computer clients and servers connected via the internet network. Poor family residence data obtained from the government. In addition, survey data are inputted through the client computer in each administrative village and also 23 criteria of input in accordance with the established government. The PROMETHEE method is used to evaluate the value of poverty and its weight is used to determine poverty status. PROMETHEE output can also be used to rank the poverty of the registered population of the server based on the netflow value. The poverty rate is calculated based on the current poverty rate compared to the previous poverty rate. The rate results can be viewed online and real time on the server through numbers and graphs. From the test results can be seen that the system can classify poverty status, calculate the poverty rate change rate and can determine the value and poverty ranking of each population.

  8. Radiation induced skeletal changes in beagle: dose rates, dose, and age effect analysis from 226Ra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Momeni, M.H.; Williams, J.R.; Rosenblatt, L.S.

    1976-01-01

    Radiation-induced skeletal injury (E) and the rate of skeletal injury were studied as a function of time and dose in beagles administered 226 Ra Cl 2 in eight semimonthly iv injections starting at 2, 4, or 14 months of age. Skeletal changes were evaluated with a radiographic x-ray scoring system in 20 skeletal regions; each region was scored on a 0 to 6 scale. Bone changes in six regions of humeri were qualitatively analyzed for comparison with total skeletal changes. Skeletal changes were classified by endosteal or periosteal cortical sclerosis and thickening, fractures, osteolytic lesions, and trabecular coarsening

  9. Interest rate changes and stock returns in Spain: A wavelet analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Moya-Martínez

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the relationship between changes in interest rates and the Spanish stock market at the industry level over the period from January 1993 to December 2012 using a wavelet-based approach. The empirical results indicate that Spanish industries exhibit, in general, a significant interest rate sensitivity, although the degree of interest rate exposure differs considerably across industries and depending on the time horizon under consideration. In particular, regulated industries such as Utilities, highly indebted industries such as Real Estate, Utilities or Technology and Telecommunications, and the Banking industry emerge as the most vulnerable to interest rates. Further, the link between movements in interest rates and industry equity returns is stronger at the coarsest scales. This finding is consistent with the idea that investors with long-term horizons are more likely to follow macroeconomic fundamentals, such as interest rates, in their investment decisions.

  10. Raised Holocene paleo-shorelines along the Capo Vaticano coast (western Calabria, Italy): Evidence of co-seismic and steady-state deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spampinato, Cecilia Rita; Ferranti, Luigi; Monaco, Carmelo; Scicchitano, Giovanni; Antonioli, Fabrizio

    2014-12-01

    Detailed mapping of geomorphological and biological sea-level markers around the Capo Vaticano promontory (western Calabria, Italy), has documented the occurrence of four Holocene paleo-shorelines raised at different altitudes. The uppermost shoreline (PS1) is represented by a deeply eroded fossiliferous beach deposit, reaching an elevation of ∼2.2 m above the present sea-level, and by a notch whose roof is at ∼2.3 m. The subjacent shoreline PS2 is found at an elevation of ∼1.8 m and is represented by a Dendropoma rim, a barnacle band and by a wave-cut platform. Shoreline PS3 includes remnants of vermetid concretions, a barnacle band, a notch and a marine deposit, and reaches an elevation of ∼1.4 m. The lowermost paleo-shoreline (PS4) includes a wave-cut platform and a notch and reaches an elevation of ∼0.8 m. Radiocarbon dating of material from individual paleo-shorelines points to an average uplift rate of 1.2-1.4 mm/yr in the last ∼6 ka at Capo Vaticano. Our data suggest that Holocene uplift was asymmetric, with a greater magnitude in the south-west sector of the promontory, in a manner similar to the long-term deformation attested by Pleistocene terraces. The larger uplift in the south-western sector is possibly related to the additional contribution, onto a large-wavelength regional signal, of co-seismic deformation events, which are not registered to the north-east. We have recognized four co-seismic uplift events at 5.7-5.4 ka, 3.9-3.5 ka, ∼1.9 ka and <1.8 ka ago, superposed on a regional uplift that in the area, is occurring at a rate of ∼1 mm/yr. Our findings places new constrains on the recent activity of border faults south of the peninsula and on the location of the seismogenic source the 1905 destructive earthquake.

  11. Habitat structure and zonation patterns of northwestern Mediterranean shoreline strands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Mariani

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We studied the habitat structure (macrofaunal assemblages and bottom types and zonation patterns of 29 unvegetated shoreline strands along the 900-km coast of Catalonia (NW Mediterranean Sea. Organisms were sampled with grabs, pitfall traps, sticky traps, clam nets and spades to ensure capture of the different proportions of macrofaunal assemblages from the supra-, medio- and infralittoral levels. We collected 211 taxa: 194 animals and 17 algae. The most abundant and dominant organisms collected with van Veen grabs were Nematoda, Oligochaeta and Collembola at the supralittoral level; the polychaetes Saccocirrus spp. and Pisione remota, the amphipod Corophium orientale, Nematoda, and Turbellaria at the mediolittoral level; and Nematoda at the upper infralittoral level. SIMPER analysis revealed great dissimilarity between the organisms inhabiting the supralittoral and the other littoral levels. Regarding the epifauna, the sticky traps used at the supralittoral level mainly collected Collembola, which were nearly absent in pitfall traps. The qualitative study performed with a clam net and a small spade revealed that Nematoda, Saccocirrus spp., Turbellaria, Nemertea and the polychaete P. remota were the most abundant animals at both the medio- and the infralittoral levels and no differences were found between these levels. Different qualitative sampling methodologies showed that in fine sediments the bivalves Donax trunculus and D. semistriatus determined more than 97% of dissimilarity from coarse-sand sites. Richness increased in protected sandy and cobble shores. Littoral level and bottom-type features were only to a certain extent valid indicators of specific biotic components for a specific habitat.

  12. Nutrient-enhanced bioremediation of oil-contaminated shoreline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaser, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    On March 24, 1989, the collision of the supertanker Exxon Valdez with a submerged reef in Prince William Sound AK, released 41.6 million L (11 million gal) of Prudhoe Bay crude oil. The oil spread with time to contaminate an estimated 565 km (350 miles) of shoreline. The degradation of oil components by biological mechanisms has been intensively studied during the last 20 years. The general outline of biodegradation pathways for aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons has been formulated and continues to be developed in greater detail. Consequently, the microbial decomposition of oil in aquatic environments is well understood to include descriptions of biodegradation kinetics; temperature effects for biodegradation can be described by an Arrhenius relationship. Even cold-water environments have been shown to support the biodegradation of oil components. This paper reports that a panel of experts was assembled to assist the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in determining the best treatment strategy to accelerate the natural biodegradation process in Prince William Sound

  13. Biological effects of three different shoreline cleanup methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mattsson, J.; Lethinen, C.; Linden, O.

    1981-06-01

    In order to simulate a real oil spill the shore of a small island in the Baltic proper was treated with a weathered crude oil. The aim of the study was to investigate and compare environmental impact of some shoreline cleanup techniques as well as the effectiveness of these methods. Hot water was the quickest cleanup method, whereas cleaning with a solvent took twice as much time and mechanical recovery three and a half time as much. The hot water treatment resulted in the smallest amounts of oil left in the soil compared to the two other methods, where two to three times as much was left. The oil content in sedimenting material and in mussels was highest outside the area cleaned with hot water. The oil content in mussel tissues increased 75 times after cleaning and the sediment contained about twice as much oil as outside the other areas. The vegetation on all four oiled areas was considerably reduced and the soil fauna was completely eliminated. Since no animals were found on the four oiled areas, not even on the untreated area, it appeared to be the oil itself that caused this effect. The number of animals caught with pitfall traps decreased after oiling and cleanup to between 10-40 % of the original amount. The results from the investigation of the fauna in the Cladophora-belt do not indicate any effects so far.

  14. Are low Danish fertility rates explained by changes in timing of births?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvidtfeldt, Ulla A; Gerster, Mette; Knudsen, Lisbeth B

    2010-01-01

    AIMS: The most commonly used indicator of fertility, the period total fertility rate (TFR(p)), tends to underestimate actual fertility when women delay childbearing. The objective of this study was to examine to which extent fluctuations in Danish fertility rates result from changes in timing...... from the Danish Fertility of Women and Couples Dataset, 1980-2001. We evaluated fluctuations in period fertility rates by the tempo-adjusted TFR(') - a proposed variant of the conventional TFR(p) taking period changes in timing of births into account. Tempo-effects were given by the difference between...... of births and, thus, whether the conventional TFR(p) is a distorted indicator of fertility quantum. In addition, we investigated whether such changes in timing explained the observed regional differences in the TFR(p) in Denmark. METHODS: The study applied age-, period-, county-, and parity-specific data...

  15. Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands ESI: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Lines)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines representing the shoreline and coastal habitats for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, classified according to the...

  16. National Coastal Condition Assessment (NCCA) Sampling Areas Polygons, Hawaiian Islands Shoreline, 2015, US EPA Region 9

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This is a polygon feature dataset with areas along the shoreline of the Hawaiian islands. The National Coastal Condition Assessment (NCCA) is a national coastal...

  17. Sensitivity of Coastal Environments and Wildlife to Spilled Oil: South Florida: ESIL (ESI Shoreline Types - Lines)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ESIL data set contains vector lines representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of South Florida classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity Index...

  18. Sensitivity of Coastal Environments and Wildlife to Spilled Oil: South Florida: ESIP (ESI Shoreline Types - Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ESIP data set contains vector polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of South Florida classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity...

  19. Sensitivity of Coastal Environments and Wildlife to Spilled Oil: Florida Panhandle: ESIL (ESI Shoreline Types - Lines)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ESIL data set contains vector lines representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of the Florida Panhandle, classified according to the Environmental...

  20. Virginia ESI: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Lines and Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines and polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats for Virginia, classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity...

  1. Maryland ESI: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Lines and Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines and polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats for Maryland, classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity...

  2. Aquifer Sampling Tube Completion Report: 100 Area and Hanford Townsite Shorelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, R.E.; Borghese, J.V.; Erb, D.B.

    1998-02-01

    Groundwater contamination is known or suspected along the Hanford Site shoreline of the Columbia River adjacent to the retired reactor areas. Along the shoreline away from the reactor areas, where contamination is presumed to be absent, monitoring sites are frequently widely spaced or unavailable to confirm the presumption. Previous characterizations of contamination near the river have relied on data from a limited number of near-river wells, contaminant plume migration predictions, and river bank seepage sampling to anticipate shoreline conditions. In recent years, new methods have been developed to obtain groundwater samples from the aquifer near the groundwater/river water interface. These methods include using (1) divers to obtain samples of pore water from riverbed sediment and (2) sampling tubes that are driven into the aquifer at the shoreline. The latter method also permits sampling the aquifer at multiple depths, which helps to determine the thickness of the potentially contaminated groundwater layer that discharges into the river

  3. Natural shorelines promote the stability of fish communities in an urbanized coastal system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven B Scyphers

    Full Text Available Habitat loss and fragmentation are leading causes of species extinctions in terrestrial, aquatic and marine systems. Along coastlines, natural habitats support high biodiversity and valuable ecosystem services but are often replaced with engineered structures for coastal protection or erosion control. We coupled high-resolution shoreline condition data with an eleven-year time series of fish community structure to examine how coastal protection structures impact community stability. Our analyses revealed that the most stable fish communities were nearest natural shorelines. Structurally complex engineered shorelines appeared to promote greater stability than simpler alternatives as communities nearest vertical walls, which are among the most prevalent structures, were most dissimilar from natural shorelines and had the lowest stability. We conclude that conserving and restoring natural habitats is essential for promoting ecological stability. However, in scenarios when natural habitats are not viable, engineered landscapes designed to mimic the complexity of natural habitats may provide similar ecological functions.

  4. Cook Inlet and Kenai Peninsula, Alaska ESI: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Polygons and Lines)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines and polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of Cook Inlet and Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, classified according to...

  5. Modelling the impact of changes in the interest rates on the economy: An Austrian perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P Le Roux

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Even though econometric models and yield curve analysis are useful in assessing the impact of interest rate changes on the economic structure, their power to predict the magnitude and direction of swings in the business cycle is often restricted to the use of short-term interest rates. From an Austrian school perspective on interest rates, empirical evidence suggests that the profitability of heavy industries further downstream outperforms that of light industries in the initial stages of monetary easing, due to a rising demand for investment goods and a rise in capacity utilisation levels. This paper assesses the impact of interest rates changes on the productive structure of the economy by taking into account the effect thereof on sector earnings and ultimately share prices.

  6. Features of Heart Rate Variability Capture Regulatory Changes During Kangaroo Care in Preterm Infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kommers, Deedee R; Joshi, Rohan; van Pul, Carola; Atallah, Louis; Feijs, Loe; Oei, Guid; Bambang Oetomo, Sidarto; Andriessen, Peter

    2017-03-01

    To determine whether heart rate variability (HRV) can serve as a surrogate measure to track regulatory changes during kangaroo care, a period of parental coregulation distinct from regulation within the incubator. Nurses annotated the starting and ending times of kangaroo care for 3 months. The pre-kangaroo care, during-kangaroo care, and post-kangaroo care data were retrieved in infants with at least 10 accurately annotated kangaroo care sessions. Eight HRV features (5 in the time domain and 3 in the frequency domain) were used to visually and statistically compare the pre-kangaroo care and during-kangaroo care periods. Two of these features, capturing the percentage of heart rate decelerations and the extent of heart rate decelerations, were newly developed for preterm infants. A total of 191 kangaroo care sessions were investigated in 11 preterm infants. Despite clinically irrelevant changes in vital signs, 6 of the 8 HRV features (SD of normal-to-normal intervals, root mean square of the SD, percentage of consecutive normal-to-normal intervals that differ by >50 ms, SD of heart rate decelerations, high-frequency power, and low-frequency/high-frequency ratio) showed a visible and statistically significant difference (P heart rate decelerations. HRV-based features may be clinically useful for capturing the dynamic changes in autonomic regulation in response to kangaroo care and other changes in environment and state. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Study of influence of exchange rate change on the supply and demand of energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sohn, Y.H.; Shin, D.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-08-01

    The change of relative prices of trading goods and non-trading goods due to appreciation or depreciation of real exchange rates influences industrial structure and trading infrastructure by changing output, consumption, import and export, and prices of domestic economy. Considering that energy is used as intermediate input of all industrial sectors as well as in final consumption in the Korean economy which lacks energy resources and relies on imported energy resources, I believe that assessing the concrete effects of the real exchange rate change onto the energy industry must be a very important item in establishing effective energy policy. In this thesis, I measure the elasticity of the exchange rate as endogenous factors related to the energy industry using a CGE model that breaks down the energy industry. One (1) % depreciation of real exchange rate increases the domestic sales prices of all energy industry sectors, and the price increase ratios of petroleum and coal products are calculated as the highest among these. Petroleum and coal products show the highest price increase ratios while both the output and export decrease. On the other hand, depreciation increases the domestic sales prices of power generation, city gas, and heating sectors, but it is found to increase the output apart from petroleum and coal products. Depreciation of the real exchange rate is found to change the composition of the energy industry from petroleum and coal products to power generation, city gas, and heating sectors. 11 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs.

  8. Change in self-rated general health is associated with perceived illness burden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anni Brit Sternhagen; Jensen, Per; Gannik, Dorte Effersøe

    2015-01-01

    Background: iabetic patients’ lifestyle adaptations to improve glycaemic control are not always followed by improvements in self-rated general health (SRH). The perceived impact of diabetes on patients’ daily lives may influence changes in their SRH. This paper examines the association of illness...... diabetes-related symptoms, and cardiovascular disease were related to lower SRH ratings. On average SRH improved by 0.46 (95% CI: 0.37; 0.55) during the first year after diagnosis without inclusion of covariates. Mental and practical illness burden was the only factor associated with change in SRH...

  9. Hurricane Sandy beach response and recovery at Fire Island, New York: Shoreline and beach profile data, October 2012 to October 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hehre Henderson, Rachel E.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Brenner, Owen T.; Reynolds, Billy J.

    2015-04-30

    In response to the forecasted impact of Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall on October 29, 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a substantial data-collection effort to assess the morphological impacts to the beach and dune system at Fire Island, New York. Global positioning system (GPS) field surveys of the beach and dunes were conducted just prior to and after landfall and these data were used to quantify change in several focus areas. In order to quantify morphologic change along the entire length of the island, pre-storm (May 2012) and post-storm (November 2012) lidar and aerial photography were used to assess changes to the shoreline and beach.As part of the USGS Hurricane Sandy Supplemental Fire Island Study, the beach is monitored periodically to enable better understanding of post-Sandy recovery. The alongshore state of the beach is recorded using a differential global positioning system (DGPS) to collect data around the mean high water (MHW; 0.46 meter North American Vertical Datum of 1988) to derive a shoreline, and the cross-shore response and recovery are measured along a series of 10 profiles.Overall, Hurricane Sandy substantially altered the morphology of Fire Island. However, the coastal system rapidly began to recover after the 2012­–13 winter storm season and continues to recover in the form of volume gains and shoreline adjustment.

  10. Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff recession and shoreline change rates, and cross-shore profiles representing present-day conditions. The model is applied to the ~470-km long coast of the Southern California Bight, USA, using recently available projected nearshore waves and bluff recession and shoreline change rates. The results indicate that eroded cliff material, from unarmored cliffs, contribute 11% to 26% to the total sediment budget. Historical beach nourishment rates will need to increase by more than 30% for a 0.25 m sea level rise (~2044) and by at least 75% by the year 2100 for a 1 m sea level rise, if evolution of the shoreline is to keep pace with rising sea levels.

  11. Paraquat prohibition and change in the suicide rate and methods in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myung, Woojae; Lee, Geung-Hee; Won, Hong-Hee; Fava, Maurizio; Mischoulon, David; Nyer, Maren; Kim, Doh Kwan; Heo, Jung-Yoon; Jeon, Hong Jin

    2015-01-01

    The annual suicide rate in South Korea is the highest among the developed countries. Paraquat is a highly lethal herbicide, commonly used in South Korea as a means for suicide. We have studied the effect of the 2011 paraquat prohibition on the national suicide rate and method of suicide in South Korea. We obtained the monthly suicide rate from 2005 to 2013 in South Korea. In our analyses, we adjusted for the effects of celebrity suicides, and economic, meteorological, and seasonal factors on suicide rate. We employed change point analysis to determine the effect of paraquat prohibition on suicide rate over time, and the results were verified by structural change analysis, an alternative statistical method. After the paraquat prohibition period in South Korea, there was a significant reduction in the total suicide rate and suicide rate by poisoning with herbicides or fungicides in all age groups and in both genders. The estimated suicide rates during this period decreased by 10.0% and 46.1% for total suicides and suicides by poisoning of herbicides or fungicides, respectively. In addition, method substitution effect of paraquat prohibition was found in suicide by poisoning by carbon monoxide, which did not exceed the reduction in the suicide rate of poisoning with herbicides or fungicides. In South Korea, paraquat prohibition led to a lower rate of suicide by paraquat poisoning, as well as a reduction in the overall suicide rate. Paraquat prohibition should be considered as a national suicide prevention strategy in developing and developed countries alongside careful observation for method substitution effects.

  12. Paraquat prohibition and change in the suicide rate and methods in South Korea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woojae Myung

    Full Text Available The annual suicide rate in South Korea is the highest among the developed countries. Paraquat is a highly lethal herbicide, commonly used in South Korea as a means for suicide. We have studied the effect of the 2011 paraquat prohibition on the national suicide rate and method of suicide in South Korea. We obtained the monthly suicide rate from 2005 to 2013 in South Korea. In our analyses, we adjusted for the effects of celebrity suicides, and economic, meteorological, and seasonal factors on suicide rate. We employed change point analysis to determine the effect of paraquat prohibition on suicide rate over time, and the results were verified by structural change analysis, an alternative statistical method. After the paraquat prohibition period in South Korea, there was a significant reduction in the total suicide rate and suicide rate by poisoning with herbicides or fungicides in all age groups and in both genders. The estimated suicide rates during this period decreased by 10.0% and 46.1% for total suicides and suicides by poisoning of herbicides or fungicides, respectively. In addition, method substitution effect of paraquat prohibition was found in suicide by poisoning by carbon monoxide, which did not exceed the reduction in the suicide rate of poisoning with herbicides or fungicides. In South Korea, paraquat prohibition led to a lower rate of suicide by paraquat poisoning, as well as a reduction in the overall suicide rate. Paraquat prohibition should be considered as a national suicide prevention strategy in developing and developed countries alongside careful observation for method substitution effects.

  13. Evaluation of the influence of change in heart rate on left ventricular diastolic function indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Motomasa; Yamagishi, Hiroaki; Seino, Yasuyuki; Odano, Ikuo; Sakai, Kunio; Yamamoto, Tomohiko; Tsuda, Takashi

    1988-01-01

    In order to assess the influence of change in heart rate on left ventricular diastolic function indices, ECG gated cardiac pool study was performed in 6 patients with implanted programmable AAI pacemakers. Heart rate was changed by atrial pacing from 50 to 120 beats/min, every 10 beats/min. The filling fraction during first third of diastole (1/3FF), the peak filling rate (PFR), mean first third filling rate (1/3FR-mean) and early filling volume ratio (%EFV), being used as the indices of left ventricular diastolic performance, were assessed. In accordance with increase in heart rate, 1/3FF decreased significantly. PFR were fairly stable from 50 to 80 beats/min, but increased significantly from 90 to 120 beats/min. 1/3FR-mean and %EFV did not change significantly, but 1/3FR-mean showed decreasing tendency and %EFV showed increasing tendency as the heart rate was increased. %EFV was more changeable index than other indices among clinical cases. These results indicate that PFR and 1/3FR-mean were appropriate diastolic phase indices at rest. (author)

  14. Rate of Change in Lake Level and its Impact on Reservoir-triggered Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, D. W.

    2017-12-01

    With recent interest in increased seismicity related to fluid injection, it is useful to review cases of reservoir-triggered earthquakes to explore common characteristics and seek ways to mitigate the influence of anthropogenic impacts. Three reservoirs - Koyna, India; Nurek, Tajikistan; and Aswan, Egypt - are well-documented cases of triggered earthquakes with recorded time series of seismicity and water levels that extend for more than 30 years. The geological setting, regional tectonics and modes of reservoir utilization, along with the characteristics of the reservoir-seismicity interaction, are distinctly different in each of these three cases. Similarities and differences between these three cases point to regional and local geological and hydrological structures and the rate of changes in reservoir water level as important factors controlling the presence and timing of triggered seismicity. In a manner similar to the way in which the rate of fluid injection influences injection-related seismicity, the rate of change in reservoir water level is a significant factor in determining whether or not reservoir-triggered seismicity occurs. The high rate of annual water level rise may be important in sustaining the exceptionally long sequence of earthquakes at Koyna. In addition to the rate of filling being a determining factor in whether or not earthquakes are triggered, changes in the rate of filling may influence the time of occurrence of individual earthquakes.

  15. The discharge of nitrate-contaminated groundwater from developed shoreline to marsh-fringed estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portnoy, J.W.; Nowicki, B.L.; Roman, C.T.; Urish, D.W.

    1998-01-01

    As residential development, on-site wastewater disposal, and groundwater contamination increase in the coastal zone, assessment of nutrient removal by soil and sedimentary processes becomes increasingly important. Nitrogen removal efficiency depends largely on the specific flow paths taken by groundwater as it discharges into nitrogen-limited estuarine waters. Shoreline salinity surveys, hydraulic studies, and thermal infrared imagery indicated that groundwater discharge into the Nauset Marsh estuary (Eastham, Massachusetts) occurred in high-velocity seeps immediately seaward of the upland-fringing salt marsh. Discharge was highly variable spatially and occurred through permeable, sandy sediments during low tide. Seepage chamber monitoring showed that dissolved inorganic nitrogen (principally nitrate) traversed nearly conservatively from the aquifer through shallow estuarine sediments to coastal waters at flux rates of 1–3 mmol m−2 h−1. A significant relationship between pore water NO3-N concentrations and NO3-N flux rates may provide a rapid method of estimating nitrogen loading from groundwater to the water column.

  16. The Response of Deferred Executive Compensation to Changes in Tax Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Aspen Gorry; Kevin A. Hassett; R. Glenn Hubbard; Aparna Mathur

    2015-01-01

    Given the increasing use of stock options in executive compensation, we examine how taxes influence the choice of compensation and document that income deferral is an important margin of adjustment in response to tax rate changes. To account for this option in the empirical analysis, we explore deferral by estimating how executives’ choice of compensation between current and deferred income depends on changes in tax policy. Our empirical results suggest a significant impact of taxes on the co...

  17. Vegetation of natural and artificial shorelines in Upper Klamath Basin’s fringe wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Andrew M.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Hamilton, Andy S.

    2013-01-01

    The Upper Klamath Basin (UKB) in northern California and southern Oregon supports large hypereutrophic lakes surrounded by natural and artificial shorelines. Lake shorelines contain fringe wetlands that provide key ecological services to the people of this region. These wetlands also provide a context for drawing inferences about how differing wetland types and wave exposure contribute to the vegetative assemblages in lake-fringe wetlands. Here, we summarize how elevation profiles and vegetation richness vary as a function of wave exposure and wetland type. Our results show that levee wetland shorelines are 4X steeper and support fewer species than other wetland types. We also summarize the occurrence probability of the five common wetland plant species that represent the overwhelming majority of the diversity of these wetlands. In brief, the occurrence probability of the culturally significant Nuphar lutea spp. polysepala and the invasive Phalaris arundinacea in wave exposed and sheltered sites varies based on wetland type. The occurrence probability for P. arundinacea was greatest in exposed portions of deltaic shorelines, but these trends were reversed on levees where the occurrence probability was greater in sheltered sites. The widespread Schoenoplectus acutus var. acutus occurred throughout all wetland and exposure type combinations but had a higher probability of occurrence in wave exposed sites. Results from this work will add to our current understanding of how wetland shoreline profiles interact with wave exposure to influence the occurrence probability of the dominant vegetative species in UKB’s shoreline wetlands.

  18. The Efficiency of Random Forest Method for Shoreline Extraction from LANDSAT-8 and GOKTURK-2 Imageries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayram, B.; Erdem, F.; Akpinar, B.; Ince, A. K.; Bozkurt, S.; Catal Reis, H.; Seker, D. Z.

    2017-11-01

    Coastal monitoring plays a vital role in environmental planning and hazard management related issues. Since shorelines are fundamental data for environment management, disaster management, coastal erosion studies, modelling of sediment transport and coastal morphodynamics, various techniques have been developed to extract shorelines. Random Forest is one of these techniques which is used in this study for shoreline extraction.. This algorithm is a machine learning method based on decision trees. Decision trees analyse classes of training data creates rules for classification. In this study, Terkos region has been chosen for the proposed method within the scope of "TUBITAK Project (Project No: 115Y718) titled "Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Sustainable Coastal Zone Monitoring Model - Three-Dimensional Automatic Coastline Extraction and Analysis: Istanbul-Terkos Example". Random Forest algorithm has been implemented to extract the shoreline of the Black Sea where near the lake from LANDSAT-8 and GOKTURK-2 satellite imageries taken in 2015. The MATLAB environment was used for classification. To obtain land and water-body classes, the Random Forest method has been applied to NIR bands of LANDSAT-8 (5th band) and GOKTURK-2 (4th band) imageries. Each image has been digitized manually and shorelines obtained for accuracy assessment. According to accuracy assessment results, Random Forest method is efficient for both medium and high resolution images for shoreline extraction studies.

  19. THE EFFICIENCY OF RANDOM FOREST METHOD FOR SHORELINE EXTRACTION FROM LANDSAT-8 AND GOKTURK-2 IMAGERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bayram

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Coastal monitoring plays a vital role in environmental planning and hazard management related issues. Since shorelines are fundamental data for environment management, disaster management, coastal erosion studies, modelling of sediment transport and coastal morphodynamics, various techniques have been developed to extract shorelines. Random Forest is one of these techniques which is used in this study for shoreline extraction.. This algorithm is a machine learning method based on decision trees. Decision trees analyse classes of training data creates rules for classification. In this study, Terkos region has been chosen for the proposed method within the scope of "TUBITAK Project (Project No: 115Y718 titled "Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Sustainable Coastal Zone Monitoring Model – Three-Dimensional Automatic Coastline Extraction and Analysis: Istanbul-Terkos Example". Random Forest algorithm has been implemented to extract the shoreline of the Black Sea where near the lake from LANDSAT-8 and GOKTURK-2 satellite imageries taken in 2015. The MATLAB environment was used for classification. To obtain land and water-body classes, the Random Forest method has been applied to NIR bands of LANDSAT-8 (5th band and GOKTURK-2 (4th band imageries. Each image has been digitized manually and shorelines obtained for accuracy assessment. According to accuracy assessment results, Random Forest method is efficient for both medium and high resolution images for shoreline extraction studies.

  20. Pleistocene Lake Bonneville and Eberswalde Crater of Mars: Quantitative Methods for Recognizing Poorly Developed Lacustrine Shorelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jewell, P. W.

    2014-12-01

    The ability to quantify shoreline features on Earth has been aided by advances in acquisition of high-resolution topography through laser imaging and photogrammetry. Well-defined and well-documented features such as the Bonneville, Provo, and Stansbury shorelines of Late Pleistocene Lake Bonneville are recognizable to the untrained eye and easily mappable on aerial photos. The continuity and correlation of lesser shorelines must rely quantitative algorithms for processing high-resolution data in order to gain widespread scientific acceptance. Using Savitsky-Golay filters and the geomorphic methods and criteria described by Hare et al. [2001], minor, transgressive, erosional shorelines of Lake Bonneville have been identified and correlated across the basin with varying degrees of statistical confidence. Results solve one of the key paradoxes of Lake Bonneville first described by G. K. Gilbert in the late 19th century and point the way for understanding climatically driven oscillations of the Last Glacial Maximum in the Great Basin of the United States. Similar techniques have been applied to the Eberswalde Crater area of Mars using HRiSE DEMs (1 m horizontal resolution) where a paleolake is hypothesized to have existed. Results illustrate the challenges of identifying shorelines where long term aeolian processes have degraded the shorelines and field validation is not possible. The work illustrates the promises and challenges of indentifying remnants of a global ocean elsewhere on the red planet.

  1. Investigating the asymmetric relationship between inflation-output growth exchange rate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jenq Fei; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between inflation-output growth or output variation has long been studied. In this study, we extend the investigation under two exchange rate flexibility/regime in four Asian countries (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand) that have experienced drastic exchange rate regime changes aftermath the financial crisis of 1997. These countries have switched from fixed/rigid exchange rate regime to flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting (IT) regime after the crisis. Our main objective is to compare the inflation-output trade-off relationship in the pre-IT and post-IT periods as a tool to evaluate the efficiency of monetary policy. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes (increases and decreases). The data ranging from 1981M1 onwards till 2016M3. Our results show that exchange rate has asymmetric effect on inflation both short-run and long-run with larger impact in the post-IT period under flexible regime. Depreciation of exchange rate has leads to higher inflation. Furthermore, we find evidences on the relationship between inflation and growth in both short-run and long-run, but the trade-off only detected in the short run both in the pre- and post-IT periods.

  2. Changes in ambient dose equivalent rates around roads at Kawamata town after the Fukushima accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinase, Sakae; Sato, Satoshi; Yamamoto, Hideaki; Saito, Kimiaki; Sakamoto, Ryuichi

    2015-01-01

    Changes in ambient dose equivalent rates noted through vehicle-borne surveys have elucidated ecological half-lives of radioactive caesium in the environment. To confirm that the ecological half-lives are appropriate for predicting ambient dose equivalent rates within living areas, it is important to ascertain ambient dose equivalent rates on/around roads. In this study, radiation monitoring on/around roads at Kawamata town, located about 37 km northwest of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, was performed using monitoring vehicles and survey meters. It was found that the ambient dose equivalent rates around roads were higher than those on roads as of October 2012. And withal the ecological half-lives on roads were essentially consistent with those around roads. With dose predictions using ecological half-lives on roads, it is necessary to make corrections to ambient dose equivalent rates through the vehicle-borne surveys against those within living areas. (authors)

  3. Frequency, clinical correlates and rating of behavioural changes in primary brain tumour patients: A preliminary investigation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grahame K Simpson

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available PurposeFew studies have addressed the specific behavioural changes associated with primary brain tumour (PBT. This paper will report on the frequency and demographic/clinical correlates of such behaviours, and the reliability of rating such behaviours amongst people with PBT, family informants and clinicians. The association of behavioural changes and patient functional status will also be discussed.MethodsA total of 57 patients with 37 family informants were recruited from two large Australian metropolitan hospitals. Each completed three neuro-behavioural self-report measures. Patients also completed a depression symptom measure. Functional status was defined by clinician-rated Karnofsky Performance Status.ResultsPatients were on average 52 years old, a median of four months (range 1-82 post-diagnosis, with high grade (39%, low grade (22% or benign tumours (39%. Patients reported frequency rates of 7-40% across various behavioural domains including anger, inappropriate behaviour, apathy, inertia and executive impairment. The presence of epileptic seizures was associated with significantly higher levels of behavioural changes. Notably, behaviour did not correlate with tumour grade or treatment modality. There was moderate agreement between patients and relatives on the presence or absence of behavioural changes, and substantial agreement between relative and clinician ratings. Depressed patients did not generally report more changes than non-depressed patients. Increases in the relative and clinician-rated behaviour scores were significantly correlated with decreasing functional status in the patient.ConclusionsBehavioural changes were a common sequela of both benign and malignant PBT. Larger scale studies are required to confirm these results. The results suggest the importance of including behaviour in brain cancer psychosocial assessments and the need to develop interventions to treat these patients and reduce the burden of care on families.

  4. Seasonal dynamics of the shoreline vegetation in the Zapatosa floodplain lake complex, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udo Schmidt-Mumm

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Floodplain lakes and associated wetlands in tropical dry climates are controlled by pronounced and severe seasonal hydrologic fluctuations. We examined the plant community response to a bimodal flooding pattern in the Zapatosa Floodplain Lake Complex (ZFLC, Northern Colombia. We measured floristic and quantitative change in four sampling periods emphasizing seasonal differences in plant abundance and life-form structure. Of 79 species identified in the lake complex, 52 were used to characterize eight community types via classification and ordination procedures. Results showed that community structure does not change significantly during the flooding/receding stages. But maximum drawdown phase significantly disrupts the aquatic community structure and the exposed shorelines become colonized by ruderal terrestrial plants. Early rainfalls at the beginning of the wet season are emphasized as an important feature of plant regeneration and community development. The general strategy of the ZFLC vegetation can be framed into the flood pulse concept of river-floodplain systems. Thus, plant communities are mainly responding to disturbances and destruction events imposed by extreme water level fluctuations. Rev. Biol. Trop. 62 (3: 1073-1097. Epub 2014 September 01.

  5. Predicting changes in reported notifiable disease rates for New Zealand using a SIR modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBride, Graham; Slaney, David; Tait, Andrew

    2013-04-01

    The New Zealand health system has defined as 'notifiable' over 50 diseases. Of these campylobacteriosis is the most commonly reported comprising 41% of all notifications in 2011 (presently about 150 illness cases per 100,000 population per annum). Furthermore, the incidence of this mild illness, which is potentially waterborne, is under-reported by at least an order-of-magnitude. Increased downstream pathogen loads and/or disease incidence have been found to be associated with increased rainfall, particularly in agricultural landscapes. Therefore, given the predominance of agricultural land uses in New Zealand, transmission and exposure to its agent (thermotolerant Campylobacter bacteria) may be affected by changing rainfall and temperature patterns associated with climate change. Reporting rates for other potentially water-borne zoonoses are also noticeable (for example, the reported rate for cryptosporidiosis for 2011 was 14 per 100,000 population). The distribution of Cryptosporidium oocysts in the environment may be influenced by climate change because it has often been implicated in drinking-water contamination, and heavy rainfall events have been found to be associated with increased pathogen loads in rivers and disease incidence. Given this background, which may also be applicable to other countries with agriculturally-dominated landscapes, a New Zealand study was initiated to develop a decision-support system for the projected effects of climate change on a selected suite of environmentally-transmitted pathogens, including Campylobacter and Cryptosporodium oocysts. Herein we report on the manner in which a linear SIR (Susceptible-Ill-Recovered) model previously developed for campylobacteriosis can be extended to cryptosporidiosis, applied to changes in pathogen contact rate and hence reported illness, and coupled to climate change projections associated with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The resulting SIR model outputs provided projected

  6. Community Colleges and Labor Market Conditions: How Does Enrollment Demand Change Relative to Local Unemployment Rates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillman, Nicholas W.; Orians, Erica Lee

    2013-01-01

    This study uses fixed-effects panel data techniques to estimate the elasticity of community college enrollment demand relative to local unemployment rates. The findings suggest that community college enrollment demand is counter-cyclical to changes in the labor market, as enrollments rise during periods of weak economic conditions. Using national…

  7. Features of heart rate variability capture regulatory changes during kangaroo care in preterm infants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kommers, D.R.; Joshi, R.; van Pul, C.; Atallah, N.L.; Feijs, L.M.G.; Oei, S.G.; Bambang Oetomo, S.; Andriessen, P.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To determine whether heart rate variability (HRV) can serve as a surrogate measure to track regulatory changes during kangaroo care, a period of parental coregulation distinct from regulation within the incubator. Study design: Nurses annotated the starting and ending times of kangaroo

  8. 76 FR 2930 - International Product Change-Global Expedited Package Services-Non- Published Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-18

    ... POSTAL SERVICE International Product Change--Global Expedited Package Services-- Non- Published... request with the Postal Regulatory Commission to add Global Expedited Package Services-- Non-Published...--Non-Published Rates, to the Competitive Products List, and Notice of Filing (Under Seal) the Enabling...

  9. Regional changes over time in initial virologic response rates to combination antiretroviral therapy across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bannister, Wendy P; Kirk, Ole; Gatell, Jose M

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Changes in virologic response to initial combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) over calendar time may indicate improvements in cART or emergence of primary resistance. Regional variations may identify differences in available antiretroviral drugs or patient management. METHODS: Vi...... rates Udgivelsesdato: 2006/6...

  10. 76 FR 65639 - International Mail: Proposed Product Rate and Fee Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-24

    ... Customs Clearance and Delivery Fee International Reply Coupons International Business Reply Service The... * * * * * International Business Reply Service (382) [For each country that offers International Business Reply Service... POSTAL SERVICE 39 CFR Part 20 International Mail: Proposed Product Rate and Fee Changes AGENCY...

  11. Integrated mechanisms of anticipation and rate-of-change computations in cortical circuits.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel D Puccini

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Local neocortical circuits are characterized by stereotypical physiological and structural features that subserve generic computational operations. These basic computations of the cortical microcircuit emerge through the interplay of neuronal connectivity, cellular intrinsic properties, and synaptic plasticity dynamics. How these interacting mechanisms generate specific computational operations in the cortical circuit remains largely unknown. Here, we identify the neurophysiological basis of both the rate of change and anticipation computations on synaptic inputs in a cortical circuit. Through biophysically realistic computer simulations and neuronal recordings, we show that the rate-of-change computation is operated robustly in cortical networks through the combination of two ubiquitous brain mechanisms: short-term synaptic depression and spike-frequency adaptation. We then show how this rate-of-change circuit can be embedded in a convergently connected network to anticipate temporally incoming synaptic inputs, in quantitative agreement with experimental findings on anticipatory responses to moving stimuli in the primary visual cortex. Given the robustness of the mechanism and the widespread nature of the physiological machinery involved, we suggest that rate-of-change computation and temporal anticipation are principal, hard-wired functions of neural information processing in the cortical microcircuit.

  12. Effect of Conceptual Change Approach on Students' Understanding of Reaction Rate Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingir, Sevgi; Geban, Omer

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effect of conceptual change text oriented instruction compared to traditional instruction on 10th grade students' understanding of reaction rate concepts. 45 students from two classes of the same teacher in a public high school participated in this study. Students in the experimental group…

  13. The Effect of Conceptual Change Pedagogy on Students' Conceptions of Rate of Reaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calik, Muammer; Kolomuc, Ali; Karagolge, Zafer

    2010-01-01

    This paper reports on an investigation of the effect of conceptual change pedagogy on students' conceptions of "rate of reaction" concepts. The study used a pre-test/post-test non-equivalent comparison group design approach and the sample consisted of 72 Turkish grade-11 students (aged 16-18 years) selected from two intact classrooms.…

  14. 77 FR 64599 - Change in Rates and Classes of General Applicability for Competitive Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-22

    ... Distribution Center (RNDC) will have a 1.0 percent overall increase, and prices for parcels picked up at a... Vol. 77 Monday, No. 204 October 22, 2012 Part II Postal Service Change in Rates and Classes of..., October 22, 2012 / Notices#0;#0; [[Page 64600

  15. Changes in heart rate variability and QT variability during the first trimester of pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, R E; D'Silva, L A; Emery, S J; Uzun, O; Rassi, D; Lewis, M J

    2015-03-01

    The risk of new-onset arrhythmia during pregnancy is high, presumably relating to changes in both haemodynamic and cardiac autonomic function. The ability to non-invasively assess an individual's risk of developing arrhythmia during pregnancy would therefore be clinically significant. We aimed to quantify electrocardiographic temporal characteristics during the first trimester of pregnancy and to compare these with non-pregnant controls. Ninety-nine pregnant women and sixty-three non-pregnant women underwent non-invasive cardiovascular and haemodynamic assessment during a protocol consisting of various physiological states (postural manoeurvres, light exercise and metronomic breathing). Variables measured included stroke volume, cardiac output, heart rate, heart rate variability, QT and QT variability and QTVI (a measure of the variability of QT relative to that of RR). Heart rate (p pregnancy only during the supine position (p pregnancy in all physiological states (p pregnancy in all states (p pregnancy is associated with substantial changes in heart rate variability, reflecting a reduction in parasympathetic tone and an increase in sympathetic activity. QTVI shifted to a less favourable value, reflecting a greater than normal amount of QT variability. QTVI appears to be a useful method for quantifying changes in QT variability relative to RR (or heart rate) variability, being sensitive not only to physiological state but also to gestational age. We support the use of non-invasive markers of cardiac electrical variability to evaluate the risk of arrhythmic events in pregnancy, and we recommend the use of multiple physiological states during the assessment protocol.

  16. Will Changes to Medicare Payment Rates Alter Hospice's Cost-Saving Ability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Donald H; Bhavsar, Nrupen A; Bull, Janet H; Kassner, Cordt T; Olson, Andrew; Boucher, Nathan A

    2018-05-01

    On January 1, 2016, Medicare implemented a new "two-tiered" model for hospice services, with per diem rates increased for days 1 through 60, decreased for days 61 and greater, and service intensity add-on payments made retrospectively for the last seven days of life. To estimate whether the Medicare hospice benefit's potential for cost savings will change as a result of the January 2016 change in payment structure. Analysis of decedents' claims records using propensity score matching, logistic regression, and sensitivity analysis. All age-eligible Medicare decedents who received care and died in North Carolina in calendar years 2009 and 2010. Costs to Medicare for hospice and other healthcare services. Medicare costs were reduced from hospice election until death using both 2009-2010 and new 2016 payment structures and rates. Mean cost savings were $1,527 with actual payment rates, and would have been $2,105 with the new payment rates (p payment rate change. Cost savings were found for all primary diagnoses analyzed except dementia.

  17. Decomposing change in China's suicide rate, 1990-2010: ageing and urbanisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sha, Feng; Yip, Paul S F; Law, Yik Wa

    2017-02-01

    The study empirically quantifies the contributions of age composition and urbanisation to changes in the suicide rate in China over the periods 1990-2000 and 2000-2010. A decompositional method was used to quantify the absolute and relative contributions of the age structure; the age-specific proportion of the urban population and the suicide rate of each age-specific, gender-specific and urban/rural cohort to the overall suicide rates in the two 10-year intervals. In the period between 1990 and 2000, a significant decline in the suicide rate among younger age groups (especially young rural women) was identified as the main driving force of the downward trend in the overall suicide rate. In 2000-2010, the rate of decline in suicide was predominantly explained by the drop in the suicide rate among all age groups in rural areas, with the exception of those aged over 80. The positive impact of urbanisation on the decline of the suicide rate has gradually diminished relative to the earlier period. As the positive impact of urbanisation on suicide rates is diminishing, further urbanisation and rapid change in society may induce stress and adjustment problems that are not conducive to the promotion of well-being. Furthermore, as China is facing the prospects of slower economic growth and a rapidly ageing population, suicides among older adults may also be elevated, particularly among those in rural areas with insufficient healthcare and social support. In order to maintain the decreasing trend of suicide in China, it is important for the Chinese government to pay more attention to the mental well-being of the population and to mitigate the stress of urban life and to provide timely support to older adults especially in rural areas. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  18. Changes in Consumer Demand Following Public Reporting of Summary Quality Ratings: An Evaluation in Nursing Homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Rachel M; Konetzka, R Tamara; Polsky, Daniel

    2016-06-01

    Limited consumer use of health care report cards may be due to the large amount of information presented in report cards, which can be difficult to understand. These limitations may be overcome with summary measures. Our objective was to evaluate consumer response to summary measures in the setting of nursing homes. 2005-2010 nursing home Minimum Data Set and Online Survey, Certification and Reporting (OSCAR) datasets. In December 2008, Medicare converted its nursing home report card to summary or star ratings. We test whether there was a change in consumer demand for nursing homes related to the nursing home's star rating after the information was released. The star rating system was associated with a significant change in consumer demand for low- and high-scoring facilities. After the star-based rating system was released, 1-star facilities typically lost 8 percent of their market share and 5-star facilities gained over 6 percent of their market share. The nursing home star rating system significantly affected consumer demand for high- and low-rated nursing homes. These results support the use of summary measures in report cards. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  19. Response of MnBi-Bi eutectic to freezing rate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, M.; Fu, T.-W.; Wilcox, W. R.; Doddi, K.; Ravishankar, P. S.; Larson, D.

    1982-01-01

    Reference is made to a study by Fu and Wilcox (1981), which treated theoretically the influence on freezing rate of sudden changes in translation rate in the Bridgman-Stockbarger technique. This treatment is extended here to a linear ramped translation rate and an oscillatory freezing rate. It is found that oscillations above a few hertz are highly damped in small-diameter apparatus. An experimental test is carried out of the theoretical predictions for a sudden change of translation rate. The MnBi-Bi eutectic is solidified with current-induced interface demarcation. The experimental results accord reasonably well with theory if the silica ampoule wall is assumed to either (1) contribute only a resistance to heat exchange between the sample and the furnace wall or (2) transmit heat effectively in the axial direction by radiation. In an attempt to explain the fact that a finer microstructure is obtained in space, MnBi-Bi microstructure is determined when the freezing rate is increased or decreased rapidly. Preliminary results suggest that fiber branching does not occur as readily as fiber termination.

  20. Air change rates of motor vehicles and in-vehicle pollutant concentrations from secondhand smoke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, Wayne; Klepeis, Neil; Switzer, Paul

    2008-05-01

    The air change rates of motor vehicles are relevant to the sheltering effect from air pollutants entering from outside a vehicle and also to the interior concentrations from any sources inside its passenger compartment. We made more than 100 air change rate measurements on four motor vehicles under moving and stationary conditions; we also measured the carbon monoxide (CO) and fine particle (PM(2.5)) decay rates from 14 cigarettes smoked inside the vehicle. With the vehicle stationary and the fan off, the ventilation rate in air changes per hour (ACH) was less than 1 h(-1) with the windows closed and increased to 6.5 h(-1) with one window fully opened. The vehicle speed, window position, ventilation system, and air conditioner setting was found to affect the ACH. For closed windows and passive ventilation (fan off and no recirculation), the ACH was linearly related to the vehicle speed over the range from 15 to 72 mph (25 to 116 km h(-1)). With a vehicle moving, windows closed, and the ventilation system off (or the air conditioner set to AC Max), the ACH was less than 6.6 h(-1) for speeds ranging from 20 to 72 mph (32 to 116 km h(-1)). Opening a single window by 3'' (7.6 cm) increased the ACH by 8-16 times. For the 14 cigarettes smoked in vehicles, the deposition rate k and the air change rate a were correlated, following the equation k=1.3a (R(2)=82%; n=14). With recirculation on (or AC Max) and closed windows, the interior PM(2.5) concentration exceeded 2000 microg m(-3) momentarily for all cigarettes tested, regardless of speed. The concentration time series measured inside the vehicle followed the mathematical solutions of the indoor mass balance model, and the 24-h average personal exposure to PM(2.5) could exceed 35 microg m(-3) for just two cigarettes smoked inside the vehicle.

  1. Bayesian Statistical Analysis of Historical and Late Holocene Rates of Sea-Level Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

    2014-05-01

    A fundamental concern associated with climate change is the rate at which sea levels are rising. Studies of past sea level (particularly beyond the instrumental data range) allow modern sea-level rise to be placed in a more complete context. Considering this, we perform a Bayesian statistical analysis on historical and late Holocene rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to the statistical model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. The aims are to estimate rates of sea-level rise, to determine when modern rates of sea-level rise began and to observe how these rates have been changing over time. Many of the current methods for doing this use simple linear regression to estimate rates. This is often inappropriate as it is too rigid and it can ignore uncertainties that arise as part of the data collection exercise. This can lead to over confidence in the sea-level trends being characterized. The proposed Bayesian model places a Gaussian process prior on the rate process (i.e. the process that determines how rates of sea-level are changing over time). The likelihood of the observed data is the integral of this process. When dealing with proxy reconstructions, this is set in an errors-in-variables framework so as to take account of age uncertainty. It is also necessary, in this case, for the model to account for glacio-isostatic adjustment, which introduces a covariance between individual age and sea-level observations. This method provides a flexible fit and it allows for the direct estimation of the rate process with full consideration of all sources of uncertainty. Analysis of tide-gauge datasets and proxy reconstructions in this way means that changing rates of sea level can be estimated more comprehensively and accurately than previously possible. The model captures the continuous and dynamic evolution of sea-level change and results show that not only are modern sea levels rising but that the rates

  2. Seismic surface-wave prospecting methods for sinkhole hazard assessment along the Dead Sea shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezersky, M.; Bodet, L.; Al-Zoubi, A.; Camerlynck, C.; Dhemaied, A.; Galibert, P.-Y.; Keydar, S.

    2012-04-01

    The Dead Sea's coastal areas have been dramatically hit by sinkholes occurrences since around 1990 and there is an obvious potential for further collapse beneath main highways, agricultural lands and other populated places. The sinkhole hazard in this area threatens human lives and compromise future economic developments. The understanding of such phenomenon is consequently of great importance in the development of protective solutions. Several geological and geophysical studies tend to show that evaporite karsts, caused by slow salt dissolution, are linked to the mechanism of sinkhole formation along both Israel and Jordan shorelines. The continuous drop of the Dead Sea level, at a rate of 1m/yr during the past decade, is generally proposed as the main triggering factor. The water table lowering induces the desaturation of shallow sediments overlying buried cavities in 10 to 30 meters thick salt layers, at depths from 25 to 50 meters. Both the timing and location of sinkholes suggest that: (1) the salt weakens as result of increasing fresh water circulation, thus enhancing the karstification process; (2) sinkholes appear to be related to the decompaction of the sediments above karstified zones. The location, depth, thickness and weakening of salt layers along the Dead Sea shorelines, as well as the thickness and mechanical properties of the upper sedimentary deposits, are thus considered as controlling factors of this ongoing process. Pressure-wave seismic methods are typically used to study sinkhole developments in this area. P-wave refraction and reflection methods are very useful to delineate the salt layers and to determine the thickness of overlying sediments. But the knowledge of shear-wave velocities (Vs) should add valuable insights on their mechanical properties, more particularly when the groundwater level plays an important role in the process. However, from a practical point of view, the measurement of Vs remains delicate because of well-known shear

  3. Changes in alanine turnover rate due to nutritional and genetic obesity in the rat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yebras, M; Salvadó, J; Arola, L; Remesar, X; Segués, T

    1994-08-01

    The changes in alanine turnover were determined in Zucker rats, which were either genetically obese (fa/fa) or rendered obese by dietary treatment (cafeteria fed). The whole body rate of alanine turnover was higher in genetically obese rats than in rats in which obesity was induced by diet (cafeteria). This is possibly due to variations in the rate of the amino acid incorporation into proteins, since the rate of whole body alanine degradation is the same for both groups. Thus, the different pattern followed by alanine turnover rate in these types of obese animals reflects the differences in the nitrogen economy of these animals, pointing to a higher alanine utilization in the genetically obese animals and a conservative management of alanine in the cafeteria-fed animals.

  4. Rapid shoreline erosion induced by human impacts in a tropical muddy coast context, an example from western French Guiana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunier, Guillaume; Anthony, Edward; Gardel, Antoine

    2015-04-01

    The Guyanas coast (French Guiana, Surinam and Guiana) is the longest muddy coast in the world (1500 km). It is under the influence of mud banks in transit from the Amazon delta in Brazil to the Orinoco delta in Venezuela. This westward mud bank migration induces a strong geomorphic control on the shoreline which can be summarized in terms of "bank" (shoreline advance and wave energy dissipation) and "inter-bank" phases (erosion of shoreline by waves). Our study site, rice polders close to Mana city (western French Guiana), is a fine example of the exacerbation, by human activities, of the erosional dynamics on this muddy coast during an "inter-bank" phase. The polders cover 50,000 ha, in 200 x 600 m compartments flanked by earth dikes and canals. They were built in the muddy Holocene coastal plain in the 1980s and are rapidly eroding. Waves (mean significant height = 1.5 m height) comprise Atlantic swell and local trade wind-waves, and the tidal context is semi-diurnal and meso-tidal. We determined historical shoreline evolution from satellite (Landsat & SPOT) and orthophotography images, and conducted four field campaigns between October 2013 and October 2014, comprising topographic (RTK-DGPS) and hydrodynamic (pressure sensors) measurements. The results show intense erosion of 150 m/year affecting the polders since 2001, and lesser retreat (30 to 100 m/year) of the adjacent sectors colonized by mangrove forests. The erosive shoreface shows the same structure in each polder compartment: a chenier beach which freely retreats backwards under the influence of wave overwash. The chenier retreat rate is 100 m/year and it appears to be more intense (net retreat of 45 m) during the high wave-energy season (December to March), which generates more overwashing. In front of the chenier, we observed a large (50 m) inter-tidal mud bed showing different levels of induration and bioturbation by mangrove roots. The mud shorefaces exhibit an erosion rate of 100 m/year on average

  5. Agreement between pre-post measures of change and transition ratings as well as then-tests

    OpenAIRE

    Meyer, Thorsten; Richter, Susanne; Raspe, Heiner

    2013-01-01

    Background Different approaches have been developed for measuring change. Direct measurement of change (transition ratings) requires asking a patient directly about his judgment about the change he has experienced (reported change). With indirect measures of change, the patients? status is assessed at different time points and differences between them are calculated (measured change). When using the quasi-indirect approach (?then-test?), patients are asked after an intervention to rate their ...

  6. Coordinated Changes in Mutation and Growth Rates Induced by Genome Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Issei Nishimura

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Genome size is determined during evolution, but it can also be altered by genetic engineering in laboratories. The systematic characterization of reduced genomes provides valuable insights into the cellular properties that are quantitatively described by the global parameters related to the dynamics of growth and mutation. In the present study, we analyzed a small collection of W3110 Escherichia coli derivatives containing either the wild-type genome or reduced genomes of various lengths to examine whether the mutation rate, a global parameter representing genomic plasticity, was affected by genome reduction. We found that the mutation rates of these cells increased with genome reduction. The correlation between genome length and mutation rate, which has been reported for the evolution of bacteria, was also identified, intriguingly, for genome reduction. Gene function enrichment analysis indicated that the deletion of many of the genes encoding membrane and transport proteins play a role in the mutation rate changes mediated by genome reduction. Furthermore, the increase in the mutation rate with genome reduction was highly associated with a decrease in the growth rate in a nutrition-dependent manner; thus, poorer media showed a larger change that was of higher significance. This negative correlation was strongly supported by experimental evidence that the serial transfer of the reduced genome improved the growth rate and reduced the mutation rate to a large extent. Taken together, the global parameters corresponding to the genome, growth, and mutation showed a coordinated relationship, which might be an essential working principle for balancing the cellular dynamics appropriate to the environment.

  7. Validation of a short-term shoreline evolution model and coastal risk management implications. The case of the NW Portuguese coast (Ovar-Marinha Grande)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Luca; Giuseppina Persichillo, Maria; Disperati, Leonardo; Oliveira, Eduardo R.; de Fátima Lopes Alves, Maria; Boni, Giorgio; Pulvirenti, Luca; Phillips, Mike

    2015-04-01

    ; selected images, ranging from 1984 to 2011, were processed in order to extract two different vegetation-related proxies (i.e. the Stable Dune Vegetation Line and the Seaward Dune Vegetation Line) and to quantify their uncertainty. The proxies' rates of advance/retreat were calculated by exploiting the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), an ESRI ArcGIS software application. Subsequently, it was used a recent Landsat 8 image to extract the 2014 observed shoreline proxies' positions. The latter were compared with the ones predicted for the same year adopting the rates previously obtained from DSAS. Statistical analyses based on the differences between predicted and observed values were calculated in order to i) study the coastal evolution of the study area, ii) predict short-term scenarios (3 years), iii) assess the predictions accuracy and iv) identify the more reliable proxy for the study area. Finally, results were interpreted in terms of coastal planning and management perspectives. This was achieved by taking into account the official coastal risk management framework implemented in 2012 to promote a flexible, integrated and adaptive approach. This new generation of Coastal Zone Master Plans had inspired this research because it reinforced the need for mechanisms of risks prevention and environmental safeguarding.

  8. Predicting how altering propagule pressure changes establishment rates of biological invaders across species pools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockerhoff, Eckehard G; Kimberley, Mark; Liebhold, Andrew M; Haack, Robert A; Cavey, Joseph F

    2014-03-01

    Biological invasions resulting from international trade can cause major environmental and economic impacts. Propagule pressure is perhaps the most important factor influencing establishment, although actual arrival rates of species are rarely recorded. Furthermore, the pool of potential invaders includes many species that vary in their arrival rate and establishment potential. Therefore, we stress that it is essential to consider the size and composition of species pools arriving from source regions when estimating probabilities of establishment and effects of pathway infestation rates. To address this, we developed a novel framework and modeling approach to enable prediction of future establishments in relation to changes in arrival rate across entire species pools. We utilized 13 828 border interception records from the United States and New Zealand for 444 true bark beetle (Scolytinae) and longhorned beetle (Cerambycidae) species detected between 1949 and 2008 as proxies for arrival rates to model the relationship between arrival and establishment rates. Nonlinearity in this relationship implies that measures intended to reduce the unintended transport of potential invaders (such as phytosanitary treatments) must be highly effective in order to substantially reduce the rate of future invasions, particularly if trade volumes continue to increase.

  9. Change of Diurnal Heart Rate Patterns During Pregnancy and Lactation in Dogs (Canis familiaris

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Häggström J

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available Pregnancy and lactation involve great demands on the cardiovascular system. The purpose of this study was to investigate how the heart rate and diurnal heart rate pattern change when dogs become pregnant or lactate. Five clinically healthy female beagle dogs were mated, and delivered three to seven healthy puppies. The heart rate was investigated with 24-h ECG (Holter once during anoestrus, at 3, 5, 7 and 9 weeks of pregnancy, and at week 4 postpartum (lactation. However, at 9 weeks, the ECG could not be recorded for the fully 24 h in 4 of 5 dogs, because labour started and the dogs then appeared disturbed by the recordings. The results at this date are not included in the statistical comparison. The heart rate increased progressively during pregnancy and was still elevated at 4 weeks of lactation. During late pregnancy the difference in heart rates between daytime and nighttime became smaller, but the heart rate was significantly higher in daytime in all periods. In conclusion, the increased heart rates during pregnancy and lactation reflect increased demands on the cardiovascular system and may be important to consider in clinical practice.

  10. Implementation of intensity ratio change and line-of-sight rate change algorithms for imaging infrared trackers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viau, C. R.

    2012-06-01

    The use of the intensity change and line-of-sight (LOS) change concepts have previously been documented in the open-literature as techniques used by non-imaging infrared (IR) seekers to reject expendable IR countermeasures (IRCM). The purpose of this project was to implement IR counter-countermeasure (IRCCM) algorithms based on target intensity and kinematic behavior for a generic imaging IR (IIR) seeker model with the underlying goal of obtaining a better understanding of how expendable IRCM can be used to defeat the latest generation of seekers. The report describes the Intensity Ratio Change (IRC) and LOS Rate Change (LRC) discrimination techniques. The algorithms and the seeker model are implemented in a physics-based simulation product called Tactical Engagement Simulation Software (TESS™). TESS is developed in the MATLAB®/Simulink® environment and is a suite of RF/IR missile software simulators used to evaluate and analyze the effectiveness of countermeasures against various classes of guided threats. The investigation evaluates the algorithm and tests their robustness by presenting the results of batch simulation runs of surface-to-air (SAM) and air-to-air (AAM) IIR missiles engaging a non-maneuvering target platform equipped with expendable IRCM as self-protection. The report discusses how varying critical parameters such track memory time, ratio thresholds and hold time can influence the outcome of an engagement.

  11. A pilot study of change in cerebral activity during personality rating by questionnaire and personal computer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Emi; Matsuda, Kouhei

    2018-06-11

    The purpose of this study was to examine cerebral blood flow in the frontal cortex area during personality self-rating tasks. Our two hypotheses were (1) cerebral blood flow varies based on personality rating condition and (2) cerebral blood flow varies based on the personality traits. This experiment measured cerebral blood flow under 3 personal computer rating conditions and 2 questionnaire conditions. Comparing the rating conditions, the results of the t-test indicated that cerebral blood flow was higher in the questionnaire condition than it was in the personal computer condition. With respect to the Big Five, the result of the correlation coefficient, that is, cerebral blood flow during a personality rating task, changed according to the trait for agreeableness. The results of the analysis of the 5-cluster on individual differences indicated that certain personality traits were related to the factors that increased or decreased cerebral blood flow. An analysis of variance indicated that openness to experience and Behavioural Activation System-drive was significant given that participants with high intellectual curiosity were motivated in this experiment, thus, their cerebral blood flow may have increased. The significance of this experiment was that by employing certain performance measures we could examine differences in physical changes based on personality traits. © 2018 International Union of Psychological Science.

  12. Changes in heart rate associated with contest outcome in agonistic encounters in lobsters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernáindez-Falcón, Jesús; Basu, Alo C; Govindasamy, Siddhartan; Kravitz, Edward A

    2005-03-01

    Agonistic contests between lobsters housed together in a confined space progress through encounters of increasing intensity until a dominance relationship is established. Once this relationship is established, losing animals continually retreat from the advances of winners. These encounters are likely to consume much energy in both winning and losing animals. Therefore, one might expect involvement of many physiological systems before, during and after fights. Here, we report effects of agonistic encounters on cardiac frequency in winning and losing adult lobsters involved in dyadic interactions. The results show that: (i) small but significant increases in heart rate are observed upon chemical detection of a conspecific; (ii) during agonistic interactions, further increases in heart rate are seen; and (iii) ultimate winners exhibit greater increases in heart rate lasting longer periods of time compared to ultimate losers. Heart rate in winners remains elevated for at least 15 min after the contests have ended and animals have been returned to their home tanks. Reduced effects are seen in second and third pairings between familiar opponents. The sustained changes in heart rate that we observe in winning lobsters may result from hormonal modulation of cardiac function related to the change in social status brought about by contest outcome.

  13. Suicide rates in children aged 10-14 years worldwide: changes in the past two decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kõlves, Kairi; De Leo, Diego

    2014-10-01

    Limited research is focused on suicides in children aged below 15 years. To analyse worldwide suicide rates in children aged 10-14 years in two decades: 1990-1999 and 2000-2009. Suicide data for 81 countries or territories were retrieved from the World Health Organization Mortality Database, and population data from the World Bank data-set. In the past two decades the suicide rate per 100 000 in boys aged 10-14 years in 81 countries has shown a minor decline (from 1.61 to 1.52) whereas in girls it has shown a slight increase (from 0.85 to 0.94). Although the average rate has not changed significantly, rates have decreased in Europe and increased in South America. The suicide rates remain critical for boys in some former USSR republics. The changes may be related to economic recession and its impact on children from diverse cultural backgrounds, but may also be due to improvements in mortality registration in South America. Royal College of Psychiatrists.

  14. Accounting For Patients' Socioeconomic Status Does Not Change Hospital Readmission Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernheim, Susannah M; Parzynski, Craig S; Horwitz, Leora; Lin, Zhenqiu; Araas, Michael J; Ross, Joseph S; Drye, Elizabeth E; Suter, Lisa G; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Krumholz, Harlan M

    2016-08-01

    There is an active public debate about whether patients' socioeconomic status should be included in the readmission measures used to determine penalties in Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP). Using the current Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services methodology, we compared risk-standardized readmission rates for hospitals caring for high and low proportions of patients of low socioeconomic status (as defined by their Medicaid status or neighborhood income). We then calculated risk-standardized readmission rates after additionally adjusting for patients' socioeconomic status. Our results demonstrate that hospitals caring for large proportions of patients of low socioeconomic status have readmission rates similar to those of other hospitals. Moreover, readmission rates calculated with and without adjustment for patients' socioeconomic status are highly correlated. Readmission rates of hospitals caring for patients of low socioeconomic status changed by approximately 0.1 percent with adjustment for patients' socioeconomic status, and only 3-4 percent fewer such hospitals reached the threshold for payment penalty in Medicare's HRRP. Overall, adjustment for socioeconomic status does not change hospital results in meaningful ways. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  15. Bioremediation: Application of slow-release fertilizers on low-energy shorelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, K.; Tremblay, G.H.; Levy, E.M.

    1993-01-01

    In situ biodegradation, the activation of microbial processes capable of destroying contaminants where they are found in the environment, is a biological process that responds rapidly to changing environmental factors. Accordingly, in situ sediment enclosures were used to test the efficacy of selected nutrient formulations to enhance the biodegradation of a waxy crude oil in a low-energy shoreline environment. The addition of soluble inorganic fertilizers (ammonium nitrate and triple superphosphate) and slow-release nutrient formulations (sulfur-coated urea) stimulated microbial activity and prolonged the period of oil degradation, despite a decline in seasonal temperatures. Low temperatures reduced the permeability of the coating on the slow-release fertilizers, effectively suppressing nutrient release. Of the nutrient formulations evaluated, the authors recommend the application of granular slow-release fertilizers (such as sulfur-coated urea) when the overlying water temperatures are above 15 degrees C, and the application of soluble inorganic fertilizers (such as ammonium nitrate) at lower temperatures. Comprehensive analysis of the experimental results indicate that application protocols for bioremediation (form and type of fertilizer or type and frequency of application), be specifically tailored to account for differences in environmental parameters (including oil characteristics) at each contaminated site

  16. Effects of imipramine of the orthostatic changes in blood pressure, heart rate and plasma catecholamines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, J R; Johansen, Torben; Arentoft, A

    1983-01-01

    The effect of imipramine on the orthostatic changes in heart rate, blood pressure and plasma catecholamines were examined in six healthy male subjects on two occasions on high sodium balance (Na+ excretion greater than 120 mmol per day) and on low sodium balance (Na+ excretion less than 110 mmol...... per day), respectively. Orthostatic tests were carried out before and 2 h after ingestion of 150 mg imipramine hydrochloride. Imipramine caused a moderate increase in supine systolic blood pressure, and a pronounced increase in the rise in heart rate, when the subjects assumed erect position...

  17. Inference of historical changes in migration rate from the lengths of migrant tracts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pool, John E; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2009-01-01

    After migrant chromosomes enter a population, they are progressively sliced into smaller pieces by recombination. Therefore, the length distribution of "migrant tracts" (chromosome segments with recent migrant ancestry) contains information about historical patterns of migration. Here we introduce...... a theoretical framework describing the migrant tract length distribution and propose a likelihood inference method to test demographic hypotheses and estimate parameters related to a historical change in migration rate. Applying this method to data from the hybridizing subspecies Mus musculus domesticus and M....... m. musculus, we find evidence for an increase in the rate of hybridization. Our findings could indicate an evolutionary trajectory toward fusion rather than speciation in these taxa....

  18. Changes in transcriptional orientation are associated with increases in evolutionary rates of enterobacterial genes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsiung Chao

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Changes in transcriptional orientation (“CTOs” occur frequently in prokaryotic genomes. Such changes usually result from genomic inversions, which may cause a conflict between the directions of replication and transcription and an increase in mutation rate. However, CTOs do not always lead to the replication-transcription confrontation. Furthermore, CTOs may cause deleterious disruptions of operon structure and/or gene regulations. The currently existing CTOs may indicate relaxation of selection pressure. Therefore, it is of interest to investigate whether CTOs have an independent effect on the evolutionary rates of the affected genes, and whether these genes are subject to any type of selection pressure in prokaryotes. Methods Three closely related enterbacteria, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium, were selected for comparisons of synonymous (dS and nonsynonymous (dN substitution rate between the genes that have experienced changes in transcriptional orientation (changed-orientation genes, “COGs” and those that do not (same-orientation genes, “SOGs”. The dN/dS ratio was also derived to evaluate the selection pressure on the analyzed genes. Confounding factors in the estimation of evolutionary rates, such as gene essentiality, gene expression level, replication-transcription confrontation, and decreased dS at gene terminals were controlled in the COG-SOG comparisons. Results We demonstrate that COGs have significantly higher dN and dS than SOGs when a series of confounding factors are controlled. However, the dN/dS ratios are similar between the two gene groups, suggesting that the increase in dS can sufficiently explain the increase in dN in COGs. Therefore, the increases in evolutionary rates in COGs may be mainly mutation-driven. Conclusions Here we show that CTOs can increase the evolutionary rates of the affected genes. This effect is independent of the

  19. Stress Field Variation after the 2001 Skyros Earthquake, Greece, Derived from Seismicity Rate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leptokaropoulos, K.; Papadimitriou, E.; Orlecka-Sikora, B.; Karakostas, V.

    2012-04-01

    The spatial variation of the stress field (ΔCFF) after the 2001 strong (Mw=6.4) Skyros earthquake in North Aegean Sea, Greece, is investigated in association with the changes of earthquake production rates. A detailed slip model is considered in which the causative fault is consisted of several sub-faults with different coseismic slip onto each one of them. First the spatial distribution of aftershock productivity is compared with the static stress changes due to the coseismic slip. Calculations of ΔCFF are performed at different depths inside the seismogenic layer, defined from the vertical distribution of the aftershocks. Seismicity rates of the smaller magnitude events with M≥Mc for different time increments before and after the main shock are then derived from the application of a Probability Density Function (PDF). These rates are computed by spatially smoothing the seismicity and for this purpose a normal grid of rectangular cells is superimposed onto the area and the PDF determines seismicity rate values at the center of each cell. The differences between the earthquake occurrence rates before and after the main shock are compared and used as input data in a stress inversion algorithm based upon the Rate/State dependent friction concept in order to provide an independent estimation of stress changes. This model incorporates the physical properties of the fault zones (characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, effective friction coefficient) with a probabilistic estimation of the spatial distribution of seismicity rates, derived from the application of the PDF. The stress patterns derived from the previously mentioned approaches are compared and the quantitative correlation between the respective results is accomplished by the evaluation of Pearson linear correlation coefficient and its confidence intervals to quantify their significance. Different assumptions and combinations of the physical and statistical parameters are tested for

  20. A METHOD OF EXTRACTING SHORELINE BASED ON SEMANTIC INFORMATION USING DUAL-LENGTH LiDAR DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Yao

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Shoreline is a spatial varying separation between water and land. By utilizing dual-wavelength LiDAR point data together with semantic information that shoreline often appears beyond water surface profile and is observable on the beach, the paper generates the shoreline and the details are as follows: (1 Gain the water surface profile: first we obtain water surface by roughly selecting water points based on several features of water body, then apply least square fitting method to get the whole water trend surface. Then we get the ground surface connecting the under -water surface by both TIN progressive filtering method and surface interpolation method. After that, we have two fitting surfaces intersected to get water surface profile of the island. (2 Gain the sandy beach: we grid all points and select the water surface profile grids points as seeds, then extract sandy beach points based on eight-neighborhood method and features, then we get all sandy beaches. (3 Get the island shoreline: first we get the sandy beach shoreline based on intensity information, then we get a threshold value to distinguish wet area and dry area, therefore we get the shoreline of several sandy beaches. In some extent, the shoreline has the same height values within a small area, by using all the sandy shoreline points to fit a plane P, and the intersection line of the ground surface and the shoreline plane P can be regarded as the island shoreline. By comparing with the surveying shoreline, the results show that the proposed method can successfully extract shoreline.

  1. A Hybrid Islanding Detection Technique Using Average Rate of Voltage Change and Real Power Shift

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahat, Pukar; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2009-01-01

    The mainly used islanding detection techniques may be classified as active and passive techniques. Passive techniques don't perturb the system but they have larger nondetection znes, whereas active techniques have smaller nondetection zones but they perturb the system. In this paper, a new hybrid...... technique is proposed to solve this problem. An average rate of voltage change (passive technique) has been used to initiate a real power shift (active technique), which changes the eal power of distributed generation (DG), when the passive technique cannot have a clear discrimination between islanding...

  2. Radiation-induced inheritable changes in the death-rate of cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bychkovskaya, I.B.; Ochinskaya, G.K.

    1980-01-01

    By the use of an original technique (regeneration of individual lines from sister cells) it was demonstrated on various individually cultivated protozoa (Amoeba proteus, Paramecium caudatum and Climacostomum virens) that even weak direct and indirect radiation effects can induce an appreciable increase in the death-rate of descendants. After a certain dose threshold, the effect did not depend on the power of the attack and remained at the same level for as long as 3 years. The observed changes were qualitatively different from known types of inheritable changes leading to cell death

  3. On the amplitude changes of seasonal components in the rate of rotation of the earth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okazaki, Seichi

    1975-01-01

    In this paper an analysis of seasonal variations in the rate of the Earth's rotation is carried out with regard to the amplitude changes particularly. It is found that the annual and semi-annual components have peculiar changes in the amplitude, i.e., (i) the annual term has been a tendency of the amplitude enhancement of about 0.10 ms day -1 and following decay which occurred rhythmically at 1957. 5, 1963. 5, and 1969. 5, with a 6-yr period and (ii) the semi-annual term had a step change of the amplitude by about +0.13 ms day -1 at the beginning of 1962. As for the amplitude change of the annual term with the repeating period of 6 yr, there is a close correlation between this amplitude change and the westerly zonal winds at the 500-mb level in the particular zone (35 0 -55 0 N). Concerning the periods before and after the amplitude enhancement, the difference of changes in the relative westerly angular momentum in this zone is conspicuous more than that in the zone (20 0 -35 0 N). The amplitude change of the semi-annual term is proved to be attributed to the difference in Δαsub(α) between the fundamental catalogs FK3 and FK4. (auth.)

  4. Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modeled climate change mitigation pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, P. A.; Field, C. B.; Lobell, D. B.; Sanchez, D.; Mach, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) generate climate change mitigation scenarios consistent with global temperature targets. To limit warming to 2°, stylized cost-effective mitigation pathways rely on extensive deployments of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR) technologies, including multi-gigatonne yearly carbon removal from the atmosphere through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation/reforestation. These assumed CDR deployments keep ambitious temperature limits in reach, but associated rates of land-use transformation have not been evaluated. For IAM scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, we compare rates of modeled land-use conversion to recent observed commodity crop expansions. In scenarios with a likely chance of limiting warming to 2° in 2100, the rate of energy cropland expansion supporting BECCS exceeds past commodity crop rates by several fold. In some cases, mitigation scenarios include abrupt reversal of deforestation, paired with massive afforestation/reforestation. Specifically, energy cropland in crop. If energy cropland instead increases at rates equal to recent soybean and oil palm expansions, the scale of CO2 removal possible with BECCS is 2.6 to 10-times lower, respectively, than the deployments <2° IAM scenarios rely upon in 2100. IAM mitigation pathways may favor multi-gigatonne biomass-based CDR given undervalued sociopolitical and techno-economic deployment barriers. Heroic modeled rates for land-use transformation imply that large-scale biomass-based CDR is not an easy solution to the climate challenge.

  5. Longitudinal Changes in Tear Evaporation Rates After Eyelid Warming Therapies in Meibomian Gland Dysfunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, Sharon; Tan, Jen Hong; Acharya, U Rajendra; Sudarshan, Vidya K; Tong, Louis

    2016-04-01

    Lid warming is the major treatment for meibomian gland dysfunction (MGD). The purpose of the study was to determine the longitudinal changes of tear evaporation after lid warming in patients with MGD. Ninety patients with MGD were enrolled from a dry eye clinic at Singapore National Eye Center in an interventional trial. Participants were treated with hot towel (n = 22), EyeGiene (n = 22), or Blephasteam (n = 22) twice daily or a single 12-minute session of Lipiflow (n = 24). Ocular surface infrared thermography was performed at baseline and 4 and 12 weeks after the treatment, and image features were extracted from the captured images. The baseline of conjunctival tear evaporation (TE) rate (n = 90) was 66.1 ± 21.1 W/min. The rates were not significantly different between sexes, ages, symptom severities, tear breakup times, Schirmer test, corneal fluorescein staining, or treatment groups. Using a general linear model (repeat measures), the conjunctival TE rate was reduced with time after treatment. A higher baseline evaporation rate (≥ 66 W/min) was associated with greater reduction of evaporation rate after treatment. Seven of 10 thermography features at baseline were predictive of reduction in irritative symptoms after treatment. Conjunctival TE rates can be effectively reduced by lid warming treatment in some MGD patients. Individual baseline thermography image features can be predictive of the response to lid warming therapy. For patients that do not have excessive TE, additional therapy, for example, anti-inflammatory therapy, may be required.

  6. Capital accumulation, structural change and real exchange rate in a Keynesian-Structuralist growth model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oreiro José Luis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to show at theoretical level that maintaining a competitive real exchange rate positively affects the economic growth of developing countries by means of a Keynesian-Structuralist model that combines elements of Kaleckian growth models with the balance of payments constrained growth models pioneered developed by Thirlwall. In this setting, the level of real exchange rate is capable, due to its effect over capital accumulation, to induce a structural change in the economy, making endogenous income elasticities of exports and imports. For reasonable parameter values it is shown that in steady-state growth there is two long-run equilibrium values for real exchange rate, one that corresponds to an under-valued currency and another that corresponds to an over-valued currency. If monetary authorities run exchange rate policy in order to target a competitive level for real exchange rate, than under-valued equilibrium is stable and the economy will show a high growth rate in the long-run.

  7. Life Change Units (LCU Rating as Stressors in Iranian Hospitals’ Nurses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Dargahi

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Healthcare workers suffer from work-related or occupational stress. This can lead to severe distress, burnout or physical illness, and finally to decrease quality of work life and services provision. Nurses must be aware of retential stressors, because they add to the cumulative effect of other stressful events. Holmes and Rahe both found a relationship between life change unit as stressors and health changes. This research reported here aims to measure the life change units as stressors among Iranian Hospitals Nurses by LCU rating. A cross - sectional, descriptive and analytical study was conducted among 389 nurses working in 15 teaching hospitals in Tehran, Iran. The respondents were asked to select each of 54 events that cause stress ranked in order of their life change units developed by Holmes and Rahe as stress scale. Before beginning the main study, the reliability and coincidental validity was performed. All data were analyzed using SPSS for windows version 18, t-test, Anova statistical methods. Approximately, half of the nurses associated major mortgage, foreclosure of mortgage or loan. More than 50% of the Iranian nurses had 150-300 and more than 300 LCU rating which had the chance to expose to extremely serious risk to health.Iranian hospitals nurses suffer from stress that caused by Life Change Units organizational factors such as change in the financial state, change in the work environment and major mortgage. We recommend to Iranian nursing policy-makers to choose strategies to help nurses cope effectively with workplace stressors. Nursing managers and / or nursing management should develop strategies to address and improve the quality of working conditions for nurses in the hospitals. Providing educational and career prospects can contribute to decrease nurses occupational stress level, the maintaining their work ability.

  8. Understanding Rates of Marijuana Use and Consequences Among Adolescents in a Changing Legal Landscape

    OpenAIRE

    D’Amico, Elizabeth J.; Tucker, Joan S.; Pedersen, Eric R.; Shih, Regina A.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose of Review There is not one answer to address whether marijuana use has increased, decreased, or stayed the same given changes in state legalization of medical and non-medical marijuana in the USA. Recent Findings Evidence suggests some health benefits for medical marijuana; however, initiation of marijuana use is a risk factor for developing problem cannabis use. Though use rates have remained stable over recent years, about one in three 10th graders report marijuana use, most adolesc...

  9. Biomass is the main driver of changes in ecosystem process rates during tropical forest succession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohbeck, Madelon; Poorter, Lourens; Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Bongers, Frans

    2015-05-01

    Over half of the world's forests are disturbed, and the rate at which ecosystem processes recover after disturbance is important for the services these forests can provide. We analyze the drivers' underlying changes in rates of key ecosystem processes (biomass productivity, litter productivity, actual litter decomposition, and potential litter decomposition) during secondary succession after shifting cultivation in wet tropical forest of Mexico. We test the importance of three alternative drivers of ecosystem processes: vegetation biomass (vegetation quantity hypothesis), community-weighted trait mean (mass ratio hypothesis), and functional diversity (niche complementarity hypothesis) using structural equation modeling. This allows us to infer the relative importance of different mechanisms underlying ecosystem process recovery. Ecosystem process rates changed during succession, and the strongest driver was aboveground biomass for each of the processes. Productivity of aboveground stem biomass and leaf litter as well as actual litter decomposition increased with initial standing vegetation biomass, whereas potential litter decomposition decreased with standing biomass. Additionally, biomass productivity was positively affected by community-weighted mean of specific leaf area, and potential decomposition was positively affected by functional divergence, and negatively by community-weighted mean of leaf dry matter content. Our empirical results show that functional diversity and community-weighted means are of secondary importance for explaining changes in ecosystem process rates during tropical forest succession. Instead, simply, the amount of vegetation in a site is the major driver of changes, perhaps because there is a steep biomass buildup during succession that overrides more subtle effects of community functional properties on ecosystem processes. We recommend future studies in the field of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning to separate the effects of

  10. Adaptive Mean Queue Size and Its Rate of Change: Queue Management with Random Dropping

    OpenAIRE

    Karmeshu; Patel, Sanjeev; Bhatnagar, Shalabh

    2016-01-01

    The Random early detection (RED) active queue management (AQM) scheme uses the average queue size to calculate the dropping probability in terms of minimum and maximum thresholds. The effect of heavy load enhances the frequency of crossing the maximum threshold value resulting in frequent dropping of the packets. An adaptive queue management with random dropping (AQMRD) algorithm is proposed which incorporates information not just about the average queue size but also the rate of change of th...

  11. When the World Changes in Your Hands: Similarity Ratings of Objects Morphing during Active Exploration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haemy Lee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available View-based theories of object recognition posit that coherent object representations are formed by linking together successive views of an actively explored object. This linking process relies on the assumption that the object does not change during exploration. Here, we test how object representations might be influenced when the shape of the object changes slowly during exploration. In our experiment, participants rated the similarity of two novel, 3D objects, whose shape was parametrically defined. Seventeen participants explored each object for 10 sec on an iPad which afforded natural and efficient interaction. The experiment contained a baseline condition, in which two objects of varying parameter-differences were presented, and a morphing condition, in which the first of the two objects slowly morphed during active exploration, making the objects more similar. Interestingly, no participant was aware of this morphing manipulation. Comparing baseline and morph trials, however, we found significantly higher similarity ratings during morphing [F(1,16 = 84.79, p < .001]. Furthermore, correlations between similarity ratings and differences in object parameters were high for the baseline condition (r = −.64, with smaller parameter differences being perceived as more similar. Interestingly, in the morphing condition correlations were lower for parameter differences after the morph (r = −.22, but remained high for differences before (r = −.47 and during morphing (r = −.50. In conclusion, similarity ratings in the baseline condition captured the complex parameter space well. Although participants did not notice the changing shape, morphing did systematically bias the ratings. Interestingly, similarity judgments correlated better in the initial exploration phase, suggesting a capacity limit for view integration of complex shapes.

  12. Quantifying the effectiveness of shoreline armoring removal on coastal biota of Puget Sound.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Timothy S; Toft, Jason D; Cordell, Jeffery R; Dethier, Megan N; Adams, Jeffrey W; Kelly, Ryan P

    2018-01-01

    Shoreline armoring is prevalent around the world with unprecedented human population growth and urbanization along coastal habitats. Armoring structures, such as riprap and bulkheads, that are built to prevent beach erosion and protect coastal infrastructure from storms and flooding can cause deterioration of habitats for migratory fish species, disrupt aquatic-terrestrial connectivity, and reduce overall coastal ecosystem health. Relative to armored shorelines, natural shorelines retain valuable habitats for macroinvertebrates and other coastal biota. One question is whether the impacts of armoring are reversible, allowing restoration via armoring removal and related actions of sediment nourishment and replanting of native riparian vegetation. Armoring removal is targeted as a viable option for restoring some habitat functions, but few assessments of coastal biota response exist. Here, we use opportunistic sampling of pre- and post-restoration data for five biotic measures (wrack % cover, saltmarsh % cover, number of logs, and macroinvertebrate abundance and richness) from a set of six restored sites in Puget Sound, WA, USA. This broad suite of ecosystem metrics responded strongly and positively to armor removal, and these results were evident after less than one year. Restoration responses remained positive and statistically significant across different shoreline elevations and temporal trajectories. This analysis shows that removing shoreline armoring is effective for restoration projects aimed at improving the health and productivity of coastal ecosystems, and these results may be widely applicable.

  13. Quantifying the effectiveness of shoreline armoring removal on coastal biota of Puget Sound

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy S. Lee

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Shoreline armoring is prevalent around the world with unprecedented human population growth and urbanization along coastal habitats. Armoring structures, such as riprap and bulkheads, that are built to prevent beach erosion and protect coastal infrastructure from storms and flooding can cause deterioration of habitats for migratory fish species, disrupt aquatic–terrestrial connectivity, and reduce overall coastal ecosystem health. Relative to armored shorelines, natural shorelines retain valuable habitats for macroinvertebrates and other coastal biota. One question is whether the impacts of armoring are reversible, allowing restoration via armoring removal and related actions of sediment nourishment and replanting of native riparian vegetation. Armoring removal is targeted as a viable option for restoring some habitat functions, but few assessments of coastal biota response exist. Here, we use opportunistic sampling of pre- and post-restoration data for five biotic measures (wrack % cover, saltmarsh % cover, number of logs, and macroinvertebrate abundance and richness from a set of six restored sites in Puget Sound, WA, USA. This broad suite of ecosystem metrics responded strongly and positively to armor removal, and these results were evident after less than one year. Restoration responses remained positive and statistically significant across different shoreline elevations and temporal trajectories. This analysis shows that removing shoreline armoring is effective for restoration projects aimed at improving the health and productivity of coastal ecosystems, and these results may be widely applicable.

  14. Changes in search rate but not in the dynamics of exogenous attention in action videogame players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubert-Wallander, Bjorn; Green, C Shawn; Sugarman, Michael; Bavelier, Daphne

    2011-11-01

    Many previous studies have shown that the speed of processing in attentionally demanding tasks seems enhanced following habitual action videogame play. However, using one of the diagnostic tasks for efficiency of attentional processing, a visual search task, Castel and collaborators (Castel, Pratt, & Drummond, Acta Psychologica 119:217-230, 2005) reported no difference in visual search rates, instead proposing that action gaming may change response execution time rather than the efficiency of visual selective attention per se. Here we used two hard visual search tasks, one measuring reaction time and the other accuracy, to test whether visual search rate may be changed by action videogame play. We found greater search rates in the gamer group than in the nongamer controls, consistent with increased efficiency in visual selective attention. We then asked how general the change in attentional throughput noted so far in gamers might be by testing whether exogenous attentional cues would lead to a disproportional enhancement in throughput in gamers as compared to nongamers. Interestingly, exogenous cues were found to enhance throughput equivalently between gamers and nongamers, suggesting that not all mechanisms known to enhance throughput are similarly enhanced in action videogamers.

  15. [Changing medical practices and nosocomial infection rates in French maternity units from 1997 to 2000].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent-Boulétreau, A; Caillat-Vallet, E; Dumas, A M; Ayzac, L; Chapuis, C; Emery, M N; Girard, R; Haond, C; Lafarge-Leboucher, J; Tissot-Guerraz, F; Fabry, J

    2005-04-01

    In this study we describe the changes in medical practices and nosocomial infection rates in obstetrics observed through a surveillance network in the South East of France. The maternity units which belong to this network participated in voluntary surveillance using the network's methodology. The criteria for the diagnosis of nosocomial infections were in accordance with the methods described by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 101240 pregnancies including 18503 caesareans (18.3%) were included in the network from 1997 to 2000. During the study period, nosocomial infection rates following caesarean section and vaginal delivery decreased respectively from 7.8% to 4.3% (p infection control programs in maternity units has been confirmed by the results of this surveillance network. During the study period, both obstetrics-related risk factors for nosocomial infection and observed hospital-acquired infection rates were dramatically reduced, what prove an improvement of quality of care in maternity units.

  16. The Reaction of Private Spending and Market Interest Rates to the Changes in Public Spending

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przekota Grzegorz

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Expansionary fiscal policy is mired in controversy. Its proponents suggest that during recession, it stimulates investors’ activity and has a stabilizing effect on economic growth. However, its opponents point to the costs associated with the budget deficit and public debt handling. Increased public spending may result in an increase in the interest rates, which may, in turn, hinder private investment and weaken the multiplier effect of public spending. The following study examines how private spending and market interest rates reacted to changes in public spending in Poland. The study has shown that public spending stimulates private spending, which is consistent with the Keynesian model, but it also leads to an increase in market interest rates, which is consistent with the neoclassical model.

  17. Flexibility in metabolic rate confers a growth advantage under changing food availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auer, Sonya K; Salin, Karine; Rudolf, Agata M; Anderson, Graeme J; Metcalfe, Neil B

    2015-09-01

    1. Phenotypic flexibility in physiological, morphological and behavioural traits can allow organisms to cope with environmental challenges. Given recent climate change and the degree of habitat modification currently experienced by many organisms, it is therefore critical to quantify the degree of phenotypic variation present within populations, individual capacities to change and what their consequences are for fitness. 2. Flexibility in standard metabolic rate (SMR) may be particularly important since SMR reflects the minimal energetic cost of living and is one of the primary traits underlying organismal performance. SMR can increase or decrease in response to food availability, but the consequences of these changes for growth rates and other fitness components are not well known. 3. We examined individual variation in metabolic flexibility in response to changing food levels and its consequences for somatic growth in juvenile brown trout (Salmo trutta). 4. SMR increased when individuals were switched to a high food ration and decreased when they were switched to a low food regime. These shifts in SMR, in turn, were linked with individual differences in somatic growth; those individuals that increased their SMR more in response to elevated food levels grew fastest, while growth at the low food level was fastest in those individuals that depressed their SMR most. 5. Flexibility in energy metabolism is therefore a key mechanism to maximize growth rates under the challenges imposed by variability in food availability and is likely to be an important determinant of species' resilience in the face of global change. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

  18. Response of roseate tern to a shoreline protection project on Falkner Island, Connecticut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, C.J.; Spendelow, J.A.; Guilfoyle, Michael P.; Fischer, Richard A.; Pashley, David N.; Lott, Casey A.

    2007-01-01

    Construction was initiated following the 2000 tern breeding season for Phase 1 of a planned two-phase ?Shoreline Protection and Erosion Control Project? at the Falkner Island Unit of the USFWS Stewart B. McKinney National Wildlife Refuge located in Long Island Sound off the coast of Guilford, CT. When the Common Tern (Sterna hirundo) and federally endangered Roseate Tern (S. dougallii) arrived in spring 2001, they encountered several major habitat changes from what had existed in previous years. These changes included: a rock revetment covering most of the former nesting habitat on the beach from the northwestern section around the northern tip and covering about 60% of the eastern side; an elevated 60- ? 4-m shelf covering the beach and lower bank of the southwestern section; and about 2,000 sq m of devegetated areas on top of the island on the northeast side above the revetment, and about one-third of the southern half of the island. The southwest shelf was created by bulldozing and compacting extra construction fill and in situ materials. This shelf differed in internal structure from the main revetment on the north and eastern sections of the island because it lacked the deep internal crevices of the revetment. The deep internal crevices were created from the large stones and boulders (up to 2 tons) used in the construction of the main revetment. Small rock and gravel was used to fill the crevices to within 3 feet (0.9 m) of the surface of the revetment. Because half-buried tires and nest boxes for the six Roseate Tern (Sterna dougallii) sub-colony areas were deployed in similar patterns on the remaining beach, and nest boxes were placed on the newly elevated shelf areas several meters above previous locations on the now-covered beach areas, the distribution of Roseate Tern nests did not change much from 2000 to 2001. However, the movements of Roseate Tern chicks ? in many cases led by their parents towards traditional hiding places ? into the labyrinth of

  19. Analysis of changes in the relationship between exchange rates, interest rates, and capital flows before and after the economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung-Ho Lee

    1999-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the interrelationships among KRW/USD exchange rate, interest rate, and foreigner’s portfolio investment to Korea before and after the crisis. Our finding is that interest rate and the exchange rate move closely with positive relation after the crisis, which was not the case before the crisis. We also examine cross dependencies among three variables using a multivariate GARCH model and find that all of restricted models such as uni-directional spillovers are firmly rejected over both periods.

  20. Rate Constant Change of Photo Reaction of Bacteriorhodopsin Observed in Trimeric Molecular System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsujiuchi, Yutaka; Masumoto, Hiroshi; Goto, Takashi

    2016-04-01

    To elucidate the time evolution of photo reaction of bacteriorhodopsin in glycerol mixed purple membrane at around 196 K under irradiation by red light, a kinetic model was constructed. The change of absorption with irradiation at times of 560 nm and 412 nm was analyzed for the purpose of determining reaction rates of photo reaction of bacteriorhodopsin and its product M intermediate. In this study it is shown that reaction rates of conversion from bacteriorhodopsin to the M intermediate can be explained by a set of linear differential equations. This model analysis concludes that bacteriorhodopsin in which constitutes a trimer unit with other two bacteriorhodopsin molecules changes into M intermediates in the 1.73 of reaction rate, in the initial step, and according to the number of M intermediate in a trimer unit, from three to one, the reaction rate of bacteriorhodopsin into M intermediates smaller as 1.73, 0.80, 0.19 which caused by influence of inter-molecular interaction between bacteriorhodopsin.

  1. Measuring Historical Coastal Change using GIS and the Change Polygon Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, M.J.; Cromley, R.G.

    2012-01-01

    This study compares two automated approaches, the transect-from-baseline technique and a new change polygon method, for quantifying historical coastal change over time. The study shows that the transect-from-baseline technique is complicated by choice of a proper baseline as well as generating transects that intersect with each other rather than with the nearest shoreline. The change polygon method captures the full spatial difference between the positions of the two shorelines and average coastal change is the defined as the ratio of the net area divided by the shoreline length. Although then change polygon method is sensitive to the definition and measurement of shoreline length, the results are more invariant to parameter changes than the transect-from-baseline method, suggesting that the change polygon technique may be a more robust coastal change method. ?? 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  2. Investigations of effect of phase change mass transfer rate on cavitation process with homogeneous relaxation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, Zhixia; Zhang, Liang; Saha, Kaushik; Som, Sibendu; Duan, Lian; Wang, Qian

    2017-12-01

    The super high fuel injection pressure and micro size of nozzle orifice has been an important development trend for the fuel injection system. Accordingly, cavitation transient process, fuel compressibility, amount of noncondensable gas in the fuel and cavitation erosion have attracted more attention. Based on the fact of cavitation in itself is a kind of thermodynamic phase change process, this paper takes the perspective of the cavitation phase change mass transfer process to analyze above mentioned phenomenon. The two-phase cavitating turbulent flow simulations with VOF approach coupled with HRM cavitation model and U-RANS of standard k-ε turbulence model were performed for investigations of cavitation phase change mass transfer process. It is concluded the mass transfer time scale coefficient in the Homogenous Relaxation Model (HRM) representing mass transfer rate should tend to be as small as possible in a condition that ensured the solver stable. At very fast mass transfer rate, the phase change occurs at very thin interface between liquid and vapor phase and condensation occurs more focused and then will contribute predictably to a more serious cavitation erosion. Both the initial non-condensable gas in fuel and the fuel compressibility can accelerate the cavitation mass transfer process.

  3. Structural and Optical Changes of Poly-Vinylidene Fluoride by Electron Irradiation at High Dose Rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaleh, B.; Fakhri, P.; Borhani, M.; Habibi, S.; Noroozi, M.

    2012-01-01

    Poly-vinylidene fluoride films were prepared and irradiated by 10MeV electrons at different doses ranging from 50 to 300kGy with a dose rate of 10kGy/s. The FTIR results indicated that no major phase content change was observed. The optical absorption spectra indicated that the electron irradiation results in shifting of the absorption peak, appearance of a new peak and increasing the band gap (Eg). These changes may be due to the breaking of polymer chains and creation of new defects. The X-ray diffraction analysis of samples indicated that the crystallinity did not show any major changes. Concerning the gel fraction measurements, it was observed that gel fraction increases with increasing the dose, where it is an indication of the formation of cross-linked films.

  4. Adaptive changes in basal metabolic rate and thermogenesis in chronic undernutrition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shetty, P.S.

    1993-01-01

    Metabolic adaptation during chronic undernutrition represents a complex integration of several processes which affect the total energy expenditure of the individual. Basal metabolic rate (BMR) is reduced; reductions in BMR per unit fat free mass (FFM) is difficult to demonstrate. BMR changes in undernutrition reflect the low body weight as well as alterations in the composition of the FFM; more specifically changes in the ratio of viscera to muscle compartments of the FFM. Thermogenic responses to norepinephrine are transiently suppressed but recover rapidly on repeated stimulation. Dietary thermogenesis is enhanced possible the result of increases in tissue synthesis within the body. Changes in BMR and thermogenesis suggestive of an increase in metabolic efficiency is thus difficult to demonstrate in chronic undernutrition. (author). 15 refs, 2 figs, 7 tabs

  5. Rate of change in renal function and mortality in elderly treated hypertensive patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Enayet K; Langham, Robyn G; Ademi, Zanfina; Owen, Alice; Krum, Henry; Wing, Lindon M H; Nelson, Mark R; Reid, Christopher M

    2015-07-07

    Evidence relating the rate of change in renal function, measured as eGFR, after antihypertensive treatment in elderly patients to clinical outcome is sparse. This study characterized the rate of change in eGFR after commencement of antihypertensive treatment in an elderly population, the factors associated with eGFR rate change, and the rate's association with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Data from the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study were used, where 6083 hypertensive participants aged ≥65 years were enrolled during 1995-1997 and followed for a median of 4.1 years (in-trial). Following the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study, participants were followed-up for a further median 6.9 years (post-trial). The annual rate of change in the eGFR was calculated in 4940 participants using creatinine measurements during the in-trial period and classified into quintiles (Q) on the basis of the following eGFR changes: rapid decline (Q1), decline (Q2), stable (Q3), increase (Q4), and rapid increase (Q5). A rapid decline in eGFR in comparison with those with stable eGFRs during the in-trial period was associated with older age, living in a rural area, wider pulse pressure at baseline, receiving diuretic-based therapy, taking multiple antihypertensive drugs, and having blood pressure <140/90 mmHg during the study. However, a rapid increase in eGFR was observed in younger women and those with a higher cholesterol level. After adjustment for baseline and in-trial covariates, Cox-proportional hazard models showed a significantly greater risk for both all-cause (hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.09 to 1.52; P=0.003) and cardiovascular (hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.11 to 1.76; P=0.004) mortality in the rapid decline group compared with the stable group over a median of 7.2 years after the last eGFR measure. No significant association with mortality was observed for a rapid increase in eGFR. In elderly persons with

  6. Effect of phase change material on the heat transfer rate of different building materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Mushfiq; Alam, Shahnur; Ahmed, Dewan Hasan

    2017-12-01

    Phase change material (PCM) is widely known as latent heat storage. A comprehensive study is carried out to investigate the effect of PCM on heat transfer rate of building materials. Paraffin is used as PCM along with different conventional building materials to investigate the heat transfer rate from the heated region to the cold region. PCM is placed along with the three different types of building materials like plaster which is well know building material in urban areas and wood and straw which are commonly used in rural areas for roofing as well as wall panel material and investigated the heat transfer rate. An experimental setup was constructed with number of rectangular shape aluminum detachable casing (as cavity) and placed side by side. Series of rectangular cavity filled with convent ional building materials and PCM and these were placed in between two chambers filled with water at different temperature. Building materials and PCM were placed in different cavities with different combinations and investigated the heat transfer rate. The results show that using the PCM along with other building materials can be used to maintain lower temperature at the inner wall and chamber of the cold region. Moreover, the placement or orientation of the building materials and PCM make significant contribution to heat transfer rate from the heated zone to the cold zone.

  7. Baseline mean deviation and rates of visual field change in treated glaucoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forchheimer, I; de Moraes, C G; Teng, C C; Folgar, F; Tello, C; Ritch, R; Liebmann, J M

    2011-05-01

    To evaluate the relationships between baseline visual field (VF) mean deviation (MD) and subsequent progression in treated glaucoma. Records of patients seen in a glaucoma practice between 1999 and 2009 were reviewed. Patients with glaucomatous optic neuropathy, baseline VF damage, and ≥8 SITA-standard 24-2 VF were included. Patients were divided into tertiles based upon baseline MD. Automated pointwise linear regression determined global and localized rates (decibels (dB) per year) of change. Progression was defined when two or more adjacent test locations in the same hemifield showed a sensitivity decline at a rate of >1.0  dB per year, P0.50) and global rates of VF change of progressing eyes were -1.3±1.2, -1.01±0.7, and -0.9±0.5 dB/year (P=0.09, analysis of variance). Within these groups, intraocular pressure (IOP) in stable vs progressing eyes were 15.5±3.3 vs 17.0±3.1 (P0.50) and multivariate (P=0.26) analyses adjusting for differences in follow-up IOP. After correcting for differences in IOP in treated glaucoma patients, we did not find a relationship between the rate of VF change (dB per year) and the severity of the baseline VF MD. This finding may have been due to more aggressive IOP lowering in eyes with more severe disease. Eyes with lower IOP progressed less frequently across the spectrum of VF loss.

  8. Comparison of two shoreline assessment programs conducted for the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harner, E.J.; Gilfillan, E.S.

    1995-01-01

    Two large shoreline assessment studies conducted in 1990 in Prince William Sound, Alaska, after the Exxon Valdez oil spill used different design strategies to determine the impact of oiling on shoreline biota. One of the studies, the Coastal Habitat Injury Assessment (CHIA) conducted for the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Council, used matched pairs of sites, normal population distributions for biota, and meta-analysis. The power of the CHIA study to detect oiling impacts depends on being able to identify and select appropriate pairs of sites for comparison. The CHIA study also increased the oiling signal by focusing on moderate to heavily oiled sites. The Shoreline Ecology Program (SEP), conducted for Exxon, used a stratified-random-sampling study design, normal and non-normal population distributions and covariates. The SEP study was able to detect oiling impacts by using a sufficient number of sites and widely spaced transects

  9. Recent changes in the trends of teen birth rates, 1981-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingo, Phyllis A; Smith, Ruben A; Tevendale, Heather D; Ferré, Cynthia

    2011-03-01

    To explore trends in teen birth rates by selected demographics. We used birth certificate data and joinpoint regression to examine trends in teen birth rates by age (10-14, 15-17, and 18-19 years) and race during 1981-2006 and by age and Hispanic origin during 1990-2006. Joinpoint analysis describes changing trends over successive segments of time and uses annual percentage change (APC) to express the amount of increase or decrease within each segment. For teens younger than 18 years, the decline in birth rates began in 1994 and ended in 2003 (APC: -8.03% per year for ages 10-14 years; APC: -5.63% per year for ages 15-17 years). The downward trend for 18- and 19-year-old teens began earlier (1991) and ended 1 year later (2004) (APC: -2.37% per year). For each study population, the trend was approximately level during the most recent time segment, except for continuing declines for 18- and 19-year-old white and Asian/Pacific Islander teens. The only increasing trend in the most recent time segment was for 18- and 19-year-old Hispanic teens. During these declines, the age distribution of teens who gave birth shifted to slightly older ages, and the percentage whose current birth was at least their second birth decreased. Teen birth rates were generally level during 2003/2004-2006 after the long-term declines. Rates increased among older Hispanic teens. These results indicate a need for renewed attention to effective teen pregnancy prevention programs in specific populations. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. Types and Origins of Debris Found on Maui Shorelines: Implications for Mitigation Policies and Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blickley, L.; Currie, J. J.; Kaufman, G. D.

    2016-02-01

    Marine debris is an identified concern for coastal areas and is known to accumulate in large quantities in the North Pacific Ocean. The proximity of the Main Hawaiian Islands to these "garbage patches" represents an ongoing concern with little understanding of debris origins or efficacy of current mitigation policies. Debris accumulation surveys were conducted monthly between October 2013 and August 2014 and daily during January 2015 at 3 beaches on Maui's coastline. Debris accumulation rates, loads, and sources varied between sites and were influenced by both environmental and anthropogenic factors. Debris accumulation was strongly influenced by the temporal scale of sampling, with daily surveys showing a significant increase in accumulation rate. Plastics were the most common debris item at each site ranging from local, land-based debris including cigarette butts, straws, and food wrappers, to foreign, ocean-based debris such as oyster spacer tubes and hagfish traps. The results of this study indicate that the passage of a tobacco free beaches bill on Maui has not significantly reduced the amount of tobacco related debris. Alternatively, a ban on plastic grocery bags has eliminated this type of debris from Maui's shorelines, with no bags found at any of the sampling sites. The wide spread origins of collected debris further suggests that mitigation strategies to reduce debris will need to take place across hundreds of local municipalities. The efficacy of marine debris policies furthermore depends on enforcement and implementation strategy, as current results suggest policy enforcement at the producer level affords more effective results than that at the consumer level. Local debris mitigation actions have nevertheless been shown to affect debris loads, and municipalities are therefore encouraged to adopt a holistic combination of policy, community-based debris removal programs, increased public awareness, and ongoing monitoring to address marine debris.

  11. Evaluation of Ablation rate by the change of Sacrificial Material for PECS in EU-APR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Do Hyun; Kim, Yong Soo; Lee, Keun Sung [KHNP-CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    EU-APR, modified and improved from its original design of APR1400, has been developed to comply with European Utility Requirements (EUR) and nuclear design requirements of the European countries. In EU-APR, Severe Accident Mitigation Systems are dedicated to providing an independent defense line from that of Engineered Safety Feature (ESF) and Diverse Safety Feature (DSF). They consist of Emergency Reactor Depressurization System (ERDS), Passive Ex-vessel corium retaining and Cooling System (PECS), Severe Accident Containment Spray System (SACSS), Hydrogen Mitigation System (HMS) and Containment Filtered Vent System (CFVS). The PECS, so called core catcher, was introduced to prevent the Molten Core Concrete Interaction (MCCI) after Reactor Vessel (RV) failure. The PECS has experienced a lot of changes from its original design. Recently, the most significant change was that as a SM, limestone concrete is installed on PECS's body wall instead of previous sacrificial material rich in Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}. The main reason of this design change is to overcome the issue that the sacrificial material is ablated rather too fast when reacting with corium that contains a large fraction of Zr metal. Other changes in the geometry of PECS's wall and downcomer design are considered as minor ones. In this paper, the comparison of ablation rates between previous SM and limestone concrete is carried out using MAAP5 code with respective MCCI model according to the material. In this paper, major improvements of MAAP5 model for PECS in EU-APR are presented and the evaluation of ablation rate for the previous SM model and the new LC model is carried out by means of ablation depths with LBLOCA sequence. Two models have respective unique ablation process. The ablation of LC model proceeds at a constant rate regardless of water while the ablation of SM model proceeds at a faster rate before the arrival of cooling water for corium and SM mixture. The change of sacrificial material

  12. Evaluation of Ablation rate by the change of Sacrificial Material for PECS in EU-APR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Do Hyun; Kim, Yong Soo; Lee, Keun Sung

    2015-01-01

    EU-APR, modified and improved from its original design of APR1400, has been developed to comply with European Utility Requirements (EUR) and nuclear design requirements of the European countries. In EU-APR, Severe Accident Mitigation Systems are dedicated to providing an independent defense line from that of Engineered Safety Feature (ESF) and Diverse Safety Feature (DSF). They consist of Emergency Reactor Depressurization System (ERDS), Passive Ex-vessel corium retaining and Cooling System (PECS), Severe Accident Containment Spray System (SACSS), Hydrogen Mitigation System (HMS) and Containment Filtered Vent System (CFVS). The PECS, so called core catcher, was introduced to prevent the Molten Core Concrete Interaction (MCCI) after Reactor Vessel (RV) failure. The PECS has experienced a lot of changes from its original design. Recently, the most significant change was that as a SM, limestone concrete is installed on PECS's body wall instead of previous sacrificial material rich in Fe 2 O 3 . The main reason of this design change is to overcome the issue that the sacrificial material is ablated rather too fast when reacting with corium that contains a large fraction of Zr metal. Other changes in the geometry of PECS's wall and downcomer design are considered as minor ones. In this paper, the comparison of ablation rates between previous SM and limestone concrete is carried out using MAAP5 code with respective MCCI model according to the material. In this paper, major improvements of MAAP5 model for PECS in EU-APR are presented and the evaluation of ablation rate for the previous SM model and the new LC model is carried out by means of ablation depths with LBLOCA sequence. Two models have respective unique ablation process. The ablation of LC model proceeds at a constant rate regardless of water while the ablation of SM model proceeds at a faster rate before the arrival of cooling water for corium and SM mixture. The change of sacrificial material also

  13. Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through

    OpenAIRE

    Takatoshi Ito; Kiyotaka Sato

    2006-01-01

    Macroeconomic consequences of a large currency depreciation among the crisis-hit Asian economies had varied from one country to another. Inflation did not soar in most Asian countries, including Thailand and Korea, after the exchange rate depreciated during the crisis. Indonesia, however, suffered very high inflation following a very large nominal depreciation of the rupiah. As a result, price competitive advantage by the rupiah depreciation was lost in the real exchange rate terms. The objec...

  14. Groundwater recharge in desert playas: current rates and future effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Owen P.; Sala, Osvaldo E.

    2018-01-01

    Our results from playas, which are topographic low areas situated in closed-catchments in drylands, indicated that projected climate change in Southwestern USA would have a net positive impact over runon and groundwater recharge beneath playas. Expected increased precipitation variability can cause up to a 300% increase in annual groundwater recharge beneath playas. This increase will overshadow the effect of decreased precipitation amount that could cause up to a 50% decrease in recharge beneath playas. These changes could have a significant impact on groundwater and carbon storage. These results are important given that groundwater resources in Southwestern USA continue to decline due to human consumption outpacing natural recharge of aquifers. Here, we report on groundwater recharge rates ranging from less than 1 mm to greater than 25 mm per year beneath desert playas. Playas located in larger and steeper catchments with finer-textured soils had the highest rates of recharge. Vegetation cover had no effect on recharge beneath playas. We modeled catchment runoff generation and found that the amount of runon a playa receives annually strongly correlated to the rate of groundwater recharge beneath that playa. Runon occurred during precipitation events larger than 20 mm and increased linearly with events above that threshold.

  15. Stratigraphic response of salt marshes to slow rates of sea-level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, J.; Bell, T.

    2006-12-01

    Conventional models of salt-marsh development show an idealized spatial relationship between salt-marsh floral and foraminiferal zones, where the landward margin of the marsh gradually migrates inland in response to sea-level rise. This model predicts that transgression will result in persistent and possibly expanded salt marshes at the surface, depending on a variety of factors including sediment supply, hydrologic conditions, tidal range, and rate of sea-level rise. However, in areas with abundant sediment supply and slow rates of sea- level rise, the extent of back-barrier salt marshes may decline over time as the barrier-spits mature. Sea level around the northeast coast of Newfoundland is rising at a very slow rate during the late Holocene (flora. These transitions are interpreted to reflect the progradation of the spit, decreased tidal exchange in the back-barrier, and increased influence of freshwater streams discharging into the back-barrier setting. Decreased marine influence on the back-barrier environment leads to a floral and faunal shift associated with a regressive stratigraphy in an area experiencing sea-level rise. For studies of Holocene sea-level change requiring salt-marsh stratigraphic records, it is necessary to account for changing micro-environments to locate sites appropriate for study; salt marshes may play an important role in defining the record, but may not exist at the surface to guide investigation.

  16. Linking Changes in Contraceptive Use to Declines in Teen Pregnancy Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Manlove

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Using a unique microsimulation tool, Teen FamilyScape, the present study explores how changes in the mix of contraceptive methods used by teens contributed to the decline in the U.S. teen pregnancy rate between 2002 and 2010. Results indicate that changes in contraceptive use contributed to approximately half of the decline in the teen pregnancy rate during this time period (48% and that a little more than half of this “contraceptive effect” was due to an increase in teen condom use (58%. The remaining share of the contraceptive effect can be attributed to an increase in the use of more effective hormonal (pill, patch, ring and long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC/injectable methods (Intrauterine Devices (IUD, implant and injectable. Results from an additional counterfactual analysis suggest that the contraceptive effect was driven by the fact that the percentage of teens using no birth control fell during the study time period, rather than by the fact that some teens switched from less effective methods (condoms to more effective hormonal and LARC/injectable methods. However, very high typical use failure rates for teen condom users suggest the need for a two-pronged approach for continuing reductions in teen pregnancy for sexually active teens: first, targeting the youth most at risk of not using contraception and helping them choose contraception, and second, increasing the effectiveness of method use among existing contraceptors.

  17. Determination of Hemodynamic Changes on Heart Rate for Assessment of Orthostatic Intolerance in Older People

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hortelano Rubio, M.; Reilly, R.B.; Cervigón Abad, R.

    2016-07-01

    Introduction.- The aim of our study was to assess the hemodynamic changes that occur in symptomatic Orthostatic Intolerance (OI) patients, at the starting of exercise and recovery stages during six minutes walking distance test. Materials.- We analysed 65 older subjects, of whom 42 were women. The participants were carried out the Active Stand Protocol. The records were divided into: Phase 1 (pre-exercise), Phase 2 (starting of exercise), Phase 3 (active), Phase 4 (recovery) and Phase 5 (prost-exercise). Methods.- The averages and differences of heart rate (HR) between Phase 1, Phase 3 and Phase 5 were calculated. In the same way, duration before stabilization from passive to active stages (Phase 2) and from active to passive stages (Phase 4) were calculated. The máximum and mínimum values achieved in these time series and the difference between these values were also calculated. Results.- Results showed that the symptomatic OI patients employed more time to reach the active phase tan the asymptomatic OI participants. Moreover, the symptomatic OI participants showed higher mínimum heart rate values at the starting of exercise and recovery stages. However, the asymptomatic OI group illustrated a higher difference between the máximum and mínimum heart rate values in these stages with a significance p=0.003 and p=0.007, respectivecly. Conclusion.- This study provides important information on hemodynamic parameters and can be helpful for description of the hemodynamic changes that occur during OI. (Author)

  18. Trade Adjustments to Exchange Rate Changes by Japanese Manufacturing MNEs: Intra-firm and arm's length transactions

    OpenAIRE

    ANDO Mitsuyo; KIMURA Fukunari

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines how Japanese manufacturing multinational enterprises (MNEs) adjust to exchange rate changes. Using the micro-data of Japanese manufacturing MNEs from 1994 to 2010, we find that exports tend to respond to exchange rate changes, in particular when wholly or majority-owned affiliates are dominant among their foreign affiliates and when intra-firm trade ratios are higher. Moreover, the responsiveness to exchange rate changes is higher for intra-firm exports than for total expo...

  19. Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

    2017-01-01

    Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

  20. Changes in Body Compositions and Basal Metabolic Rates during Treatment of Graves’ Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Joo Kim

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. Because thyroid hormone is an important determinant of body weight and basal metabolic rate, we investigated the changes in the basal metabolic rate and body composition sequentially after treatment for Graves’ disease. Methods. A prospective cohort study was performed with six women newly diagnosed with Graves’ disease. During a 52-week treatment of methimazole, body composition, resting respiratory expenditure (REE, and handgrip strength were measured consecutively. Results. After methimazole treatment, body weight was initially increased (0–8 weeks, subsequently plateaued (8–24 weeks, and gradually decreased in the later period (24–52 weeks despite the decreased food intake. The measured REE was 40% higher than the predicted REE at baseline, and it gradually decreased after treatment. REE positively correlated with thyroid hormone levels, peripheral deiodinase activity, and thyroid’s secretory capacity. Body compositional analyses showed that the fat mass increased during an earlier period (4–12 weeks, while the lean mass increased significantly during the later period (26–52 weeks. Consistent with the lean mass changes, muscle strength also significantly increased during the later period. Conclusions. Treatment of Graves’ disease increased body weight and fat mass transiently with decreased REE. However, long-term compositional changes moved in a beneficial direction increasing lean mass and reinforcing muscle strength, following decreasing fat percentages.

  1. Thermophilic archaeal community succession and function change associated with the leaching rate in bioleaching of chalcopyrite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wei; Xia, Jin-lan; Yang, Yi; Nie, Zhen-yuan; Peng, An-an; Liu, Hong-chang; Qiu, Guan-zhou

    2013-04-01

    The community succession and function change of thermophilic archaea Acidianus brierleyi, Metallosphaera sedula, Acidianus manzaensis and Sulfolobus metallicus were studied by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis of amplifying 16S rRNA genes fragments and real-time qPCR analysis of amplifying sulfur-oxidizing soxB gene associated with chalcopyrite bioleaching rate at different temperatures and initial pH values. The analysis results of the community succession indicated that temperature and initial pH value had a significant effect on the consortium, and S. metallicus was most sensitive to the environmental change, A. brierleyi showed the best adaptability and sulfur oxidation ability and predominated in various leaching systems. Meanwhile, the leaching rate of chalcopyrite closely related to the consortium function embodied by soxB gene, which could prove a desirable way for revealing microbial sulfur oxidation difference and tracking the function change of the consortium, and for optimizing the leaching parameters and improving the recovery of valuable metals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The effect of changing the magnetic field strength on HiPIMS deposition rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, J W; Mishra, A; Kelly, P J

    2015-01-01

    The marked difference in behaviour between HiPIMS and conventional dc or pulsed-dc magnetron sputtering discharges with changing magnetic field strengths is demonstrated through measurements of deposition rate. To provide a comparison between techniques the same circular magnetron was operated in the three excitation modes at a fixed average power of 680 W and a pressure of 0.54 Pa in the non-reactive sputtering of titanium. The total magnetic field strength B at the cathode surface in the middle of the racetrack was varied from 195 to 380 G. DC and pulsed-dc discharges show the expected behaviour that deposition rates fall with decreasing B (here by ∼25–40%), however the opposite trend is observed in HiPIMS with deposition rates rising by a factor of 2 over the same decrease in B.These observations are understood from the stand point of the different composition and transport processes of the depositing metal flux between the techniques. In HiPIMS, this flux is largely ionic and slow post-ionized sputtered particles are subject to strong back attraction to the target by a retarding plasma potential structure ahead of them. The height of this potential barrier is known to increase with increasing B.From a simple phenomenological model of the sputtered particles fluxes, and using the measured deposition rates from the different techniques as inputs, the combined probabilities of ionization, α, and back attraction, β, of the metal species in HiPIMS has been calculated. There is a clear fall in αβ (from ∼0.9 to ∼0.7) with decreasing B-field strengths, we argue primarily due to a weakening of electrostatic ion back attraction, so leading to higher deposition rates. The results indicate that careful design of magnetron field strengths should be considered to optimise HiPIMS deposition rates. (paper)

  3. Changes in ruminal volatile fatty acid production and absorption rate during the dry period and early lactation as affected by rate of increase of concentrate allowance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieho, K.; Dijkstra, J.; Schonewille, J. T.; Bannink, A.

    The aim of the present experiment was to study changes in volatile fatty acid (VFA) production using an isotope dilution technique, and changes in VFA fractional absorption rate (k aVFA) using a buffer incubation technique (BIT) during the dry period and early lactation, as affected by the

  4. Changes in calcium uptake rate by rat cardiac mitochondria during postnatal development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassani, R A; Fagian, M M; Bassani, J W; Vercesi, A E

    1998-10-01

    Ca2+ uptake, transmembrane electrical potential (Deltapsim) and oxygen consumption were measured in isolated ventricular mitochondria of rats from 3 days to 5 months of age. Estimated values of ruthenium red-sensitive, succinate-supported maximal rate of Ca2+ uptake (Vmax, expressed as nmol Ca2+/min/mg protein) were higher in neonates and gradually fell during postnatal development (from 435+/-24 at 3-6 days, to 156+/-10 in adults,Palpha-ketoglutarate as substrates) and state 3ADP (alpha-ketoglutarate-supported) respiration rates, as well as Deltapsim values (approximately-150 mV). Respiration-independent Deltapsim and Ca2+ uptake, supported by valinomycin-induced K+ efflux were also investigated at these ages. A transient Deltapsim (approximately -30 mV) was evoked by valinomycin in both neonatal and adult mitochondria. Respiration-independent Ca2+ uptake was also transient, but its initial rate was significantly higher in neonates than in adults (49. 4+/-10.0v 28.0+/-5.7 mmol Ca2+/min/mg protein,P<0.01). These results indicate that Ca2+ uptake capacity of rat cardiac mitochondria is remarkably high just after birth and declines over the first weeks of postnatal life, without change in apparent affinity of the transporter. Increased mitochondrial Ca2+ uptake rate in neonates appears to be related to the uniporter itself, rather than to modification of the driving force of the transport. Copyright 1998 Academic Press

  5. Changing trends in hospitalization rates associated with psychosis: Spain, 1980-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medel-Herrero, Alvaro; Amate, J M; Saz-Parkinson, Z; Gómez-Beneyto, M

    2015-12-01

    To analyze the prevalence of hospitalization attributable to psychosis in Spain over the last three decades. Longitudinal analysis (1980-2009) of age-adjusted hospital discharges rates associated with psychosis (ICD9 290-8) in all Spanish hospitals. Spanish Hospital Morbidity Survey. The hospitalization rate associated with psychotic episodes had been gradually increasing since 1980 until 2004; an abrupt turnaround observed in 2004 marks the beginning of a steady decline in the rate. The turning point described is not observed for each of the psychotic diagnoses separately analyzed. However, it is clearly seen when data are grouped in diagnosis-related groups (organic-psychosis, functional psychosis and substance-induced psychosis) since the time course of the diseases within the major diagnostic groups are interrelated as evidenced by shared turning points which collectively display a common time course pattern. Main hospital indicators and antipsychotic drug prescriptions were analyzed for any possible turning point in mid-2000s. Psychiatric hospital beds and length of stays remained stable by 2004; the hospitalizations associated with non-psychotic psychiatric pathologies show no turning point in 2004. However, an abrupt change on antipsychotic drug prescriptions is precisely observed in 2004. After decades of linear growth, hospitalizations for psychotic patients begin to decline in 2004, coinciding with the start of last generation atypical antipsychotic drug consumption in Spain. Some of the psychotic diagnostic rates evolve in an interrelated manner which calls into question the diagnosis and nosological boundaries between some of these pathologies.

  6. Changes of Aldosterone Secretion Rate Following Furosemide Administration in Normotensive Subjects with High Sodium Intake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung, Ho Kyung; Ryu, Yong Wun; Koh, Joo Hwan

    1976-01-01

    Marked augmentation of urinary aldosterone excretion following furosemide administration was observed in previous experiment. In this study, author measured the changes of aldosterone secretion after furosemide administration in normotensive young volunteers with high sodium intake. After intravenous injection of 1.2- 3 H-aldosterone, urine samples were collected in course of time until 24 hours after the injection. Furosemide administration was done at 30 minutes prior to aldosterone injection. Specific activities of 3H-aldosterone during and after diuresis were measured and aldosterone secretion rates were calculated dividing the doses by specific activities. Results were as followed. 1) Furosemide resulted in a marked increase in urinary aldosterone excretion. 2) Furosemide lead to an increase in both sodium and potassium excretion. 3) Aldosterone secretion rate was also increase d during furosemide diuresis, but the rate was smaller than that of urinary excretion. 4) Continuous modest increase in aldosterone secretion rate was shown after diuresis and total excess amount of aldosterone secretion for 24 hrs was equivalent to the amount of aldosterone excretion produced by diruesis. 5) Abrupt marked loss of circulating aldosterone produced by diuresis was supplemented by long lasting increase in secretion for over twenty four hours.

  7. Can evidence change the rate of back surgery? A randomized trial of community-based education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, H I; Deyo, R A; Taylor, V M; Cheadle, A D; Conrad, D A; Loeser, J D; Heagerty, P J; Diehr, P

    2001-01-01

    Timely adoption of clinical practice guidelines is more likely to happen when the guidelines are used in combination with adjuvant educational strategies that address social as well as rational influences. To implement the conservative, evidence-based approach to low-back pain recommended in national guidelines, with the anticipated effect of reducing population-based rates of surgery. A randomized, controlled trial. Ten communities in western Washington State with annual rates of back surgery above the 1990 national average (158 operations per 100,000 adults). Spine surgeons, primary care physicians, patients who were surgical candidates, and hospital administrators. The five communities randomized to the intervention group received a package of six educational activities tailored to local needs by community planning groups. Surgeon study groups, primary care continuing medical education conferences, administrative consensus processes, videodisc-aided patient decision making, surgical outcomes management, and generalist academic detailing were serially implemented over a 30-month intervention period. Quarterly observations of surgical rates. After implementation of the intervention, surgery rates declined in the intervention communities but increased slightly in the control communities. The net effect of the intervention is estimated to be a decline of 20.9 operations per 100,000, a relative reduction of 8.9% (P = 0.01). We were able to use scientific evidence to engender voluntary change in back pain practice patterns across entire communities.

  8. Effects of imipramine of the orthostatic changes in blood pressure, heart rate and plasma catecholamines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, J R; Johansen, Torben; Arentoft, A

    1983-01-01

    The effect of imipramine on the orthostatic changes in heart rate, blood pressure and plasma catecholamines were examined in six healthy male subjects on two occasions on high sodium balance (Na+ excretion greater than 120 mmol per day) and on low sodium balance (Na+ excretion less than 110 mmol...... per day), respectively. Orthostatic tests were carried out before and 2 h after ingestion of 150 mg imipramine hydrochloride. Imipramine caused a moderate increase in supine systolic blood pressure, and a pronounced increase in the rise in heart rate, when the subjects assumed erect position....... The orthostatic drop in systolic blood pressure was in most cases only moderately increased after ingestion of imipramine, but in three subjects pronounced orthostatic hypotension developed when the sodium balance was low, whereas no clinical symptoms were seen in the same subjects when tested after imipramine...

  9. Tilted lake shorelines record the onset of motion along the Hilton Creek fault adjacent to Long Valley caldera, CA, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkins, J. P.; Finnegan, N. J.; Cervelli, P. F.; Langbein, J. O.

    2010-12-01

    Prominent normal faults occur within and around Long Valley caldera, in the eastern Sierra Nevada of California. However, their relationship to both the magmatic and tectonic evolution of the caldera since the 760 ka eruption of the Bishop Tuff remains poorly understood. In particular, in the Mono-Inyo Craters north of Long Valley, extensional faulting appears to be replaced by dike intrusion where magma is available in the crust. However, it is unclear whether extensional faults in Long Valley caldera have been active since the eruption of the Bishop Tuff (when the current topography was established) or are a relatively young phenomenon owing to the cooling and crystallization of the Long Valley magma reservoir. Here we use GPS geodesy and geomorphology to investigate the evolution of the Hilton Creek fault, the primary range-front fault bounding Long Valley caldera to the southwest. Our primary goals are to determine how long the Hilton Creek fault has been active and whether slip rates have been constant over that time interval. To characterize the modern deformation field, we capitalize on recently (July, 2010) reoccupied GPS benchmarks first established in 1999-2000. These fixed-array GPS data show no discernible evidence for recent slip on the Hilton Creek fault, which further highlights the need for longer-term constraints on fault motion. To establish a fault slip history, we rely on a suite of five prominent shorelines from Pleistocene Long Valley Lake whose ages are well constrained based on field relationships to dated lavas, and that are tilted southward toward the Hilton Creek fault. A preliminary analysis of shoreline orientations using GPS surveys and a 5-m-resolution Topographic Synthetic Aperture Radar (TOPSAR) digital elevation model shows that lake shorelines tilt towards the Hilton Creek fault at roughly parallel gradients (~ 0.6%). The measured shorelines range in inferred age from 100 ka to 500 ka, which constrain recent slip on the Hilton

  10. Radiocarbon dating, chronologic framework, and changes in accumulation rates of holocene estuarine sediments from Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colman, Steven M.; Baucom, P.C.; Bratton, J.F.; Cronin, T. M.; McGeehin, J.P.; Willard, D.; Zimmerman, A.R.; Vogt, P.R.

    2002-01-01

    Rapidly accumulating Holocene sediments in estuaries commonly are difficult to sample and date. In Chesapeake Bay, we obtained sediment cores as much as 20 m in length and used numerous radiocarbon ages measured by accelarator mass spectrometry methods to provide the first detailed chronologies of Holocene sediment accumulation in the bay. Carbon in these sediments is a complex mixture of materials from a variety of sources. Analyses of different components of the sediments show that total organic carbon ages are largely unreliable, because much of the carbon (including coal) has been transported to the bay from upstream sources and is older than sediments in which it was deposited. Mollusk shells (clams, oysters) and foraminifera appear to give reliable results, although reworking and burrowing are potential problems. Analyses of museum specimens collected alive before atmospheric nuclear testing suggest that the standard reservoir correction for marine samples is appropriate for middle to lower Chesapeake Bay. The biogenic carbonate radiocarbon ages are compatible with 210 Pb and 137 Cs data and pollen stratigraphy from the same sites. Post-settlement changes in sediment transport and accumulation is an important environmental issue in many estuaries, including the Chesapeake. Our data show that large variations in sediment mass accumulation rates occur among sites. At shallow water sites, local factors seem to control changes in accumulation rates with time. Our two relatively deep-water sites in the axial channel of the bay have different long-term average accumulation rates, but the history of sediment accumulation at these sites appears to reflect overall conditions in the bay. Mass accumulation rates at the two deep-water sites rapidly increased by about fourfold coincident with widespread land clearance for agriculture in the Chesapeake watershed.

  11. Favourable changes in economic well-being and self-rated health among the elderly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenes-Camacho, Gilbert

    2011-01-01

    Adverse economic shocks exert an influence on health perceptions, but little is known about the effect of sudden positive changes in a person’s financial situation on self-rated health, particularly among low income people. This paper explores the association between an increase in the amount of non-contribution pensions, public cash transfers given to Costa Rican elderly of low socio-economic status (SES) and changes in self-rated health over time. The analysis is based on data from CRELES, the “Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging”, which is based on a probabilistic sample of people born in 1945 or earlier, and living in Costa Rica by 2002. The fieldwork for the first and second waves of CRELES was conducted from 2004 to 2006, and from 2006 to 2008, respectively. The Costa Rican Government raised the amount of the non-contribution pension for the poor 100% before July 2007, and an additional 100% after that date. Due to the CRELES fieldwork schedule, the data have a natural quasi-experimental design, given that approximately half of CRELES respondents were interviewed before July 2007, independently of their status in receiving the public cash transfers. Using random effects ordered probit regression models, we find that people who experienced such increase report a greater improvement in self-rated health between waves than those who experienced a smaller increase and than the rest of the interviewees. Results suggest that increases in income may lead to a greater improvement in self-rated health. PMID:21440352

  12. Change in heart rate variability after the adult attachment interview in dissociative patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farina, Benedetto; Speranza, Anna Maria; Imperatori, Claudio; Quintiliani, Maria Isabella; Della Marca, Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess heart rate variability (HRV) in individuals with dissociative disorders (DD) before and after the Adult Attachment Interview (AAI). Electrocardiograms were recorded before, during, and after the AAI in 13 individuals with DD and 13 healthy participants matched for age and gender. Significant change in HRV was observed only in the DD group. After the AAI, those with DD showed significant increases in the low frequency/high frequency ratio (pre-AAI = 1.91 ± 1.19; post-AAI = 4.03 ± 2.40; Wilcoxon test = -2.76, p = .005). Our results suggest that the retrieval of childhood attachment experiences in individuals with DD is associated with a change in HRV patterns that could reflect the emotion dysregulation of dissociative psychopathological processes.

  13. Short-run Distributional Effects of VAT Rate Change: Evidence from a consumption tax rate increase in Japan

    OpenAIRE

    David CASHIN; UNAYAMA Takashi

    2012-01-01

    Households will purchase more items than usual prior to a value added tax (VAT) rate increase in order to avoid taxation. Since this type of arbitrage requires resources such as shopping time and storage space, the impacts of tax increases vary across households, which has brought distributional effects in the short-run. Using the case of a consumption tax rate increase in Japan in 1997, we show that households who are non-working, with non-working spouses and residing in larger houses, benef...

  14. Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Soil Erosion Rates in Central Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santos Martínez-Santiago

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Although water-eroded soil (WES resulting from human activities has been recognized as the leading global cause of land degradation, the soil erosion risks from climate change are not clear. Studies have reported that WES is the second most significant cause of soil loss in Mexico, and its future trajectory has not been sufficiently evaluated. The aims of this study are to 1 determine the impacts of climate change on WES and its distribution for the State of Aguascalientes, Mexico, and to 2 compare the present and future soil loss rates for the study unit (SU. The State of Aguascalientes is located in the “Region del Bajio.” The impact of climate change on WES was evaluated using the near-future divided world scenario (A2 presented in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 18 weather stations were downscaled to model historic laminar water erosion (HLWE and changes therein in the A2 near-future scenario for 2010–2039 (LWEScA2. Due to future changes in mean annual rainfall (MAR levels, a change in the LWEScA2 of between 1.6 and 8.9% could result in average soil losses up to 475.4 t ha-1 yr-1, representing a loss of slightly more than a 30-mm layer of mountain soil per year. The risk zones, classified as class 4 for LWE, are located to western of the State in part of municipalities of Calvillo, Jesus María, San José de Gracia y Cosio, where there are typical hills and falls with soil very sensitive to rain erosion.

  15. Changes of chromosome aberration rate and micronucleus frequency along with accumulated dose in continuously irradiated mice with a low dose rate of γ-rays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Kimio; Izumi, Jun; Yanai, Takanori; Ichinohe, Kazuaki; Matsumoto, Tsuneya

    2003-01-01

    Chromosome aberrations in chronically exposed workers in nuclear facilities and medical radiologists have been reported. However chronological change of chromosome aberration rates along with accumulated dose has not been well studied. Chromosome aberrations and micronuclei in spleen lymphocytes were observed serially in mice continuously irradiated with a low dose rate of 20 mGy/day up to 400 days. Chromosome aberration rates were rapidly increased to 11.1% at 1 Gy, while micronucleus incidence increased at 5 Gy. After these doses their increase rates were saturated. Micronucleus incidence in bone marrow erythroblasts was higher than in spleen cells. These chronological changes of cytogenetic aberrations seem to be induced through a balance between developments of chromosome aberrations and micronuclei, and life span of spleen lymphocytes. These results will be helpful for risk assessment in low dose rate radiation exposure. (author)

  16. Changing Survival Rate of Infants Born Before 26 Gestational Weeks; Single-centre study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asad Rahman

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the changing survival rate and morbidities among infants born before 26 gestational weeks at the Sultan Qaboos University Hospital (SQUH in Muscat, Oman. Methods: This retrospective study assessed the mortality and morbidities of all premature infants born alive at 23–26 gestational weeks at SQUH between June 2006 and May 2013. Infants referred to SQUH within 72 hours of birth during this period were also included. Electronic records were reviewed for gestational age, gender, birth weight, maternal age, mode and place of delivery, antenatal steroid administration, morbidity and outcome. The survival rate was calculated and findings were then compared with those of a previous study conducted in the same hospital from 1991 to 1998. Rates of major morbidities were also calculated. Results: A total of 81 infants between 23–26 gestational weeks were admitted to the neonatal unit during the study period. Of these, 58.0% were male and 42.0% were female. Median gestational age was 25 weeks and mean birth weight was 770 ± 150 g. Of the 81 infants, 49 survived. The overall survival rate was 60.5% compared to 41% reported in the previous study. Respiratory distress syndrome (100.0%, retinopathy of prematurity (51.9%, bronchopulmonary dysplasia (34.6%, intraventricular haemorrhage (30.9% and patent ductus arteriosus (28.4% were the most common morbidities. Conclusion: The overall survival rate of infants between 23–26 gestational weeks during the study period had significantly improved in comparison to that found at the same hospital from 1991 to 1998. There is a need for the long-term neurodevelopmental follow-up of premature infants.

  17. Changing Survival Rate of Infants Born Before 26 Gestational Weeks: Single-centre study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Asad; Abdellatif, Mohamed; Sharef, Sharef W; Fazalullah, Muhammad; Al-Senaidi, Khalfan; Khan, Ashfaq A; Ahmad, Masood; Kripail, Mathew; Abuanza, Mazen; Bataclan, Flordeliza

    2015-08-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the changing survival rate and morbidities among infants born before 26 gestational weeks at the Sultan Qaboos University Hospital (SQUH) in Muscat, Oman. This retrospective study assessed the mortality and morbidities of all premature infants born alive at 23-26 gestational weeks at SQUH between June 2006 and May 2013. Infants referred to SQUH within 72 hours of birth during this period were also included. Electronic records were reviewed for gestational age, gender, birth weight, maternal age, mode and place of delivery, antenatal steroid administration, morbidity and outcome. The survival rate was calculated and findings were then compared with those of a previous study conducted in the same hospital from 1991 to 1998. Rates of major morbidities were also calculated. A total of 81 infants between 23-26 gestational weeks were admitted to the neonatal unit during the study period. Of these, 58.0% were male and 42.0% were female. Median gestational age was 25 weeks and mean birth weight was 770 ± 150 g. Of the 81 infants, 49 survived. The overall survival rate was 60.5% compared to 41% reported in the previous study. Respiratory distress syndrome (100.0%), retinopathy of prematurity (51.9%), bronchopulmonary dysplasia (34.6%), intraventricular haemorrhage (30.9%) and patent ductus arteriosus (28.4%) were the most common morbidities. The overall survival rate of infants between 23-26 gestational weeks during the study period had significantly improved in comparison to that found at the same hospital from 1991 to 1998. There is a need for the long-term neurodevelopmental follow-up of premature infants.

  18. Estimating the effect of treatment rate changes when treatment benefits are heterogeneous: antibiotics and otitis media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Tae-Ryong; Brooks, John M; Chrischilles, Elizabeth A; Bergus, George

    2008-01-01

    Contrast methods to assess the health effects of a treatment rate change when treatment benefits are heterogeneous across patients. Antibiotic prescribing for children with otitis media (OM) in Iowa Medicaid is the empirical example. Instrumental variable (IV) and linear probability model (LPM) are used to estimate the effect of antibiotic treatments on cure probabilities for children with OM in Iowa Medicaid. Local area physician supply per capita is the instrument in the IV models. Estimates are contrasted in terms of their ability to make inferences for patients whose treatment choices may be affected by a change in population treatment rates. The instrument was positively related to the probability of being prescribed an antibiotic. LPM estimates showed a positive effect of antibiotics on OM patient cure probability while IV estimates showed no relationship between antibiotics and patient cure probability. Linear probability model estimation yields the average effects of the treatment on patients that were treated. IV estimation yields the average effects for patients whose treatment choices were affected by the instrument. As antibiotic treatment effects are heterogeneous across OM patients, our estimates from these approaches are aligned with clinical evidence and theory. The average estimate for treated patients (higher severity) from the LPM model is greater than estimates for patients whose treatment choices are affected by the instrument (lower severity) from the IV models. Based on our IV estimates it appears that lowering antibiotic use in OM patients in Iowa Medicaid did not result in lost cures.

  19. The Impact of Changes to the Unemployment Rate on Australian Disability Income Insurance Claim Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaurav Khemka

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We explore the extent to which claim incidence in Disability Income Insurance (DII is affected by changes in the unemployment rate in Australia. Using data from 1986 to 2001, we fit a hurdle model to explore the presence and magnitude of the effect of changes in unemployment rate on the incidence of DII claims, controlling for policy holder characteristics and seasonality. We find a clear positive association between unemployment and claim incidence, and we explore this further by gender, age, deferment period, and occupation. A multinomial logistic regression model is fitted to cause of claim data in order to explore the relationship further, and it is shown that the proportion of claims due to accident increases markedly with rising unemployment. The results suggest that during periods of rising unemployment, insurers may face increased claims from policy holders with shorter deferment periods for white-collar workers and for medium and heavy manual workers. Our findings indicate that moral hazard may have a material impact on DII claim incidence and insurer business in periods of declining economic conditions.

  20. Time changes of vertical profile of neutron fluence rate in LVR-15 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viererbl, L.; Stehno, J.; Erben, O.; Lahodova, Z.; Marek, M.

    2003-01-01

    The LVR-15 reactor is a light water research type reactor, which is situated, in Nuclear Research Institute, Rez near Prague. The reactor is used as a multipurpose facility. For some experiments and material productions, e.g. for homogeneity of silicon resistance in production of radiation doped silicon, the time changes of vertical profile of neutron fluence rate are particularly important. The assembly used for silicon irradiation has two self-powered neutron detectors installed in a vertical irradiation channel in LVR-15 reactor. Vertical profile of thermal neutron fluence rate was automatically scanned during reactor operation. The results of measurements made in 2002 and 2003 with these detectors are presented. A set of vertical profile measurements was made during two 21-days reactor cycles. During the cycle the vertical profile slightly changes both in the position of its maximum and in the shape. The time dependences of the position of profile maximum and the profile width at half maximum during the cycle are given. (author)

  1. Increased rate of acceleration on Pine Island Glacier strongly coupled to changes in gravitational driving stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. B. T. Scott

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, has been undergoing several related changes for at least two decades; these include acceleration, thinning and grounding line retreat. During the first major ground-based study between 2006 and 2008, GPS receivers were used to monitor ice flow from 55 km to 171 km inland, along the central flowline. At four sites both acceleration and thinning rates over the last two years exceeded rates observed at any other time over the last two decades. At the downstream site acceleration was 6.4% over 2007 and thinning was 3.5±0.5 ma−1. Acceleration and thinning have spread rapidly inland with the acceleration 171 km inland at 4.1% over 2007, greater than any measured annual flow increase along the whole glacier prior to 2006. Increases in surface slope, and hence gravitational driving stress, correlate well with the acceleration and no sustained change in longitudinal stress gradient is needed to explain the force balance. There is no indication that the glacier is approaching a new steady state.

  2. God-Mediated Control and Change in Self-Rated Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Neal

    2010-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to see if feelings of God-mediated control are associated with change in self-rated health over time. In the process, an effort was made to see if a sense of meaning in life and optimism mediated the relationship between God-mediated control and change in health. The following hypothesized relationships were contained in the conceptual model that was developed to evaluate these issues: (1) people who go to church more often tend to have stronger God-mediated control beliefs than individuals who do not attend worship services as often; (2) people with a strong sense of God-mediated control are more likely to find a sense of meaning in life and be more optimistic than individuals who do not have a strong sense of God-mediated control; (3) people who are optimistic and who have a strong sense of meaning in life will rate their health more favorably over time than individuals who are not optimistic, as well as individuals who have not found a sense of meaning in life. Data from a longitudinal nationwide survey of older adults provided support for each of these hypotheses.

  3. Lesion dehydration rate changes with the surface layer thickness during enamel remineralization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Nai-Yuan N.; Jew, Jamison M.; Fried, Daniel

    2018-02-01

    A transparent highly mineralized outer surface zone is formed on caries lesions during remineralization that reduces the permeability to water and plaque generated acids. However, it has not been established how thick the surface zone should be to inhibit the penetration of these fluids. Near-IR (NIR) reflectance coupled with dehydration can be used to measure changes in the fluid permeability of lesions in enamel and dentin. Based on our previous studies, we postulate that there is a strong correlation between the surface layer thickness and the rate of dehydration. In this study, the rates of dehydration for simulated lesions in enamel with varying remineralization durations were measured. Reflectance imaging at NIR wavelengths from 1400-2300 nm, which coincides with higher water absorption and manifests the greatest sensitivity to contrast changes during dehydration measurements, was used to image simulated enamel lesions. The results suggest that the relationship between surface zone thickness and lesion permeability is highly non-linear, and that a small increase in the surface layer thickness may lead to a significant decrease in permeability.

  4. Do physiological and pathological stresses produce different changes in heart rate variability?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea eBravi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Although physiological (e.g. exercise and pathological (e.g. infection stress affecting the cardiovascular system have both been documented to be associated with a reduction in overall heart rate variability (HRV, it remains unclear if loss of HRV is ubiquitously similar across different domains of variability analysis or if distinct patterns of altered HRV exist depending on the stressor. Using Continuous Individualized Multiorgan Variability Analysis (CIMVATM software, heart rate (HR and four selected measures of variability were measured over time (windowed analysis from two datasets, a set (n=13 of patients who developed systemic infection (i.e. sepsis after bone marrow transplant, and a matched set of healthy subjects undergoing physical exercise under controlled conditions. HR and the four HRV measures showed similar trends in both sepsis and exercise. The comparison through Wilcoxon sign-rank test of the levels of variability at baseline and during the stress (i.e. exercise or after days of sepsis development showed similar changes, except for LF/HF, ratio of power at low and high frequencies (associated with sympathovagal modulation, which was affected by exercise but did not show any change during sepsis. Furthermore, HRV measures during sepsis showed a lower level of correlation with each other, as compared to HRV during exercise. In conclusion, this exploratory study highlights similar responses during both exercise and infection, with differences in terms of correlation and inter-subject fluctuations, whose physiologic significance merits further investigation.

  5. Application of RAD-BCG calculator to Hanford's 300 area shoreline characterization dataset

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antonio, Ernest J.; Poston, Ted M.; Tiller, Brett L.; Patton, Gene W.

    2003-07-01

    Abstract. In 2001, a multi-agency study was conducted to characterize potential environmental effects from radiological and chemical contaminants on the near-shore environment of the Columbia River at the 300 Area of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site. Historically, the 300 Area was the location of nuclear fuel fabrication and was the main location for research and development activities from the 1940s until the late 1980s. During past waste handling practices uranium, copper, and other heavy metals were routed to liquid waste streams and ponds near the Columbia River shoreline. The Washington State Department of Health and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Surface Environmental Surveillance Project sampled various environmental components including river water, riverbank spring water, sediment, fishes, crustaceans, bivalve mollusks, aquatic insects, riparian vegetation, small mammals, and terrestrial invertebrates for analyses of radiological and chemical constituents. The radiological analysis results for water and sediment were used as initial input into the RAD-BCG Calculator. The RAD-BCG Calculator, a computer program that uses an Excel® spreadsheet and Visual Basic® software, showed that maximum radionuclide concentrations measured in water and sediment were lower than the initial screening criteria for concentrations to produce dose rates at existing or proposed limits. Radionuclide concentrations measured in biota samples were used to calculate site-specific bioaccumulation coefficients (Biv) to test the utility of the RAD-BCG-Calculator’s site-specific screening phase. To further evaluate site-specific effects, the default Relative Biological Effect (RBE) for internal alpha particle emissions was reduced by half and the program’s kinetic/allometric calculation approach was initiated. The subsequent calculations showed the initial RAD-BCG Calculator results to be conservative, which is appropriate for screening purposes.

  6. Application of first order rate kinetics to explain changes in bloom toxicity—the importance of understanding cell toxin quotas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, Philip T.; Willis, Anusuya; Burford, Michele A.

    2018-04-01

    Cyanobacteria are oxygenic photosynthetic Gram-negative bacteria that can form potentially toxic blooms in eutrophic and slow flowing aquatic ecosystems. Bloom toxicity varies spatially and temporally, but understanding the mechanisms that drive these changes remains largely a mystery. Changes in bloom toxicity may result from changes in intracellular toxin pool sizes of cyanotoxins with differing molecular toxicities, and/or from changes in the cell concentrations of toxic and non-toxic cyanobacterial species or strains within bloom populations. We show here how first-order rate kinetics at the cellular level can be used to explain how environmental conditions drive changes in bloom toxicity at the ecological level. First order rate constants can be calculated for changes in cell concentration (μ c: specific cell division rate) or the volumetric biomass concentration (μ g: specific growth rate) between short time intervals throughout the cell cycle. Similar first order rate constants can be calculated for changes in nett volumetric cyanotoxin concentration (μ tox: specific cyanotoxin production rate) over similar time intervals. How μ c (or μ g ) covaries with μ tox over the cell cycle shows conclusively when cyanotoxins are being produced and metabolised, and how the toxicity of cells change in response to environment stressors. When μ tox/μ c>1, cyanotoxin cell quotas increase and individual cells become more toxic because the nett cyanotoxin production rate is higher than the cell division rate. When μ tox/μ c=1, cell cyanotoxin quotas remains fixed because the nett cyanotoxin production rate matches the cell division rate. When μ tox/μ ccyanotoxin cell quota decreases because either the nett cyanotoxin production rate is lower than the cell division rate, or metabolic breakdown and/or secretion of cyanotoxins is occurring. These fundamental equations describe cyanotoxin metabolism dynamics at the cellular level and provide the necessary

  7. Three dimensional evaluation of alveolar bone changes in response to different rapid palatal expansion activation rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian LaBlonde

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Introduction: The aim of this multi-center retrospective study was to quantify the changes in alveolar bone height and thickness after using two different rapid palatal expansion (RPE activation protocols, and to determine whether a more rapid rate of expansion is likely to cause more adverse effects, such as alveolar tipping, dental tipping, fenestration and dehiscence of anchorage teeth. Methods: The sample consisted of pre- and post-expansion records from 40 subjects (age 8-15 years who underwent RPE using a 4-banded Hyrax appliance as part of their orthodontic treatment to correct posterior buccal crossbites. Subjects were divided into two groups according to their RPE activation rates (0.5 mm/day and 0.8 mm/day; n = 20 each group. Three-dimensional images for all included subjects were evaluated using Dolphin Imaging Software 11.7 Premium. Maxillary base width, buccal and palatal cortical bone thickness, alveolar bone height, and root angulation and length were measured. Significance of the changes in the measurements was evaluated using Wilcoxon signed-rank test and comparisons between groups were done using ANOVA. Significance was defined at p ≤ 0.05. Results: RPE activation rates of 0.5 mm per day (Group 1 and 0.8 mm per day (Group 2 caused significant increase in arch width following treatment; however, Group 2 showed greater increases compared to Group 1 (p < 0.01. Buccal alveolar height and width decreased significantly in both groups. Both treatment protocols resulted in significant increases in buccal-lingual angulation of teeth; however, Group 2 showed greater increases compared to Group 1 (p < 0.01. Conclusion: Both activation rates are associated with significant increase in intra-arch widths. However, 0.8 mm/day resulted in greater increases. The 0.8 mm/day activation rate also resulted in more increased dental tipping and decreased buccal alveolar bone thickness over 0.5 mm/day.

  8. DIVIDEND PAYMENT BEHAVIOUR OF COMPANIES DUE TO CHANGE OF DIVIDEND TAX RATE IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stela JAKOVA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines Romanian companies’ behaviour (listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange to a change of dividend tax rate. Even if the number of companies which had paid dividends in 2016, for 2015 decreased to 32, compared with 34 companies from previous year, the total value of paid dividends increased with 53% comparatively with dividends paid for 2014. This can be explained through the new tax rate which has been reduced from 16% to 5%. We found that the shareholders obtain profit from two sources: due to increase of gross dividend and due to decrease of the tax rate. Moreover, the paper found also: for the companies who paid higher dividend for 2015 compared with 2014 the dividend paid for 2015 is statistically significant different than the dividend paid for 2014; for the companies who paid smallest dividend for 2015, we were not able to find any statistical difference. This means that the companies which increased the dividend for 2015, took into consideration the new legislation and they are motivated to pay more to the shareholders; companies which decreased the dividend value for 2015 is due to some internal factors.

  9. Patterned changes in urge ratings with tic suppression in youth with chronic tic disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brabson, Laurel A; Brown, Jessica L; Capriotti, Matthew R; Ramanujam, Krishnapriya; Himle, Michael B; Nicotra, Cassandra M; Ostrander, Rick; Kelly, Laura M; Grados, Marco A; Walkup, John T; Perry-Parrish, Carisa; Reynolds, Elizabeth K; Hankinson, Jessica C; Specht, Matt W

    2016-03-01

    Premonitory urges are central to emerging behavioral models of chronic tic disorders (CTD). Urge reduction has been proposed as a behavioral explanation for tic maintenance and exacerbation as well as the efficacy of behavioral treatments. Prior investigations have produced inconsistent findings despite common methodologies. The current study evaluated the possibility that data aggregation obscures distinct and meaningful patterns of change in urge ratings when tics are freely expressed versus suppressed. Participants (n = 12) included children with moderate-to-marked tic severity and noticeable premonitory urges. Tic frequencies and urge ratings were obtained at 15 s and 10-s intervals, respectively, across an alternating sequence of 10-min tic freely and 40-min tic suppression conditions. Patterns were established using a two step approach. Five distinct patterns of urge rating change emerged, suggesting data aggregation may obscure meaningful patterns in the urge-tic relationship when tics are completed versus suppressed. Eligibility criteria may have unintentionally excluded younger affected children and included older participants with more severe tic disorders than commonly seen. Additional research with less stringent eligibility criteria and a larger sample size will help validate the results. The relationship between urges and tics is much more complex than previously theorized. Investigations that rely on global assessments of urge and tic severity and/or assume uniformity when aggregating participant data may obscure meaningful differences in the urge-tic relationship. Future investigations should examine the possibility that individual differences and/or developmental considerations modulate the functional urge-tic relationship. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Changes in extracellular muscle volume affect heart rate and blood pressure responses to static exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, K.; Essfeld, D.; Stegemann, J.

    To investigate the effect of μg-induced peripheral extracellular fluid reductions on heart rate and blood pressure during isometric exercise, six healthy male subjects performed three calf ergometer test with different extracellular volumes of working muscles. In all tests, body positions during exercise were identical (supine with the knee joint flexed to 900). After a pre-exercise period of 25 min, during which calf volumes were manipulated, subjects had to counteract an external force of 180 N for 5 min. During the pre-exercise period three different protocols were applied. Test A: Subjects rested in the exercise position; test B: Body position was the same as in A but calf volume was increased by venous congestion (cuffs inflated to 80 mm Hg); test C: Calf volumes were decreased by a negative hydrostatic pressure (calves about 40 cm above heart level with the subjects supine). To clamp the changed calf volumes in tests B and C, cuffs were inflated to 300 mm Hg 5 min before the onset of exercise. This occlusion was maintained until termination of exercise. Compared to tests A and B, the reduced volume of test C led to significant increases in heart rate and blood pressure during exercise. Oxygen uptake did not exceed resting levels in B and C until cuffs were deflated, indicating that exclusively calf muscles contributed to the neurogenic peripheral drive. It is concluded that changes in extracellular muscle volume have to be taken into account when comparing heart rate and blood pressure during lg- and μg- exercise.

  11. Using GPS-surveyed intertidal zones to determine the validity of shorelines automatically mapped by Landsat water indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Joshua T.; Gontz, Allen M.

    2018-03-01

    Satellite remote sensing has been used extensively in a variety of shoreline studies and validated using aerial photography. This ground truth method only represents an instantaneous depiction of the shoreline at the time of acquisition and does not take into account the spatial and temporal variability of the dynamic shoreline boundary. Landsat 8‧s Operational Land Imager sensor's capability to accurately delineate a shoreline is assessed by comparing all known Landsat water index-derived shorelines with two GPS-surveyed intertidal zones that coincide with the satellite flyover date, one of which had near-neap tide conditions. Seven indices developed for automatically classifying water pixels were evaluated for their ability to delineate shorelines. The shoreline is described here as the area above and below maximum low and high tide, otherwise known as the intertidal zone. The high-water line, or wet/dry sediment line, was chosen as the shoreline indicator to be mapped using a handheld GPS. The proportion of the Landsat-derived shorelines that fell within this zone and their alongshore profile lengths were calculated. The most frequently used water index and the predecessor to Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), was found to be the least accurate by a significant margin. Other indices required calibration of their threshold value to achieve accurate results, thus diminishing their replicability success for other regions. MNDWI was determined to be the best index for automated shoreline mapping, based on its superior accuracy and repeatable, stable threshold value.

  12. Decrease in Suicide Rates after a Change of Policy Reducing Access to Firearms in Adolescents: A Naturalistic Epidemiological Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubin, Gad; Werbeloff, Nomi; Halperin, Demian; Shmushkevitch, Mordechai; Weiser, Mark; Knobler, Haim Y.

    2010-01-01

    The use of firearms is a common means of suicide. We examined the effect of a policy change in the Israeli Defense Forces reducing adolescents' access to firearms on rates of suicide. Following the policy change, suicide rates decreased significantly by 40%. Most of this decrease was due to decrease in suicide using firearms over the weekend.…

  13. Utilization of electromigration in civil and environmental engineering--processes, transport rates and matrix changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ottosen, Lisbeth M; Christensen, Iben V; Rorig-Dalgård, Inge; Jensen, Pernille E; Hansen, Henrik K

    2008-07-01

    Electromigration (movement of ions in an applied electric field) is utilized for supply or extraction of ions from various porous materials within both civil and environmental engineering. In civil engineering, most research has been conducted on the removal of chlorides from concrete to hinder reinforcement corrosion while in environmental engineering remediation of heavy metal polluted soil is the issue most studied. Never the less, experiments have been conducted with utilization for several other materials and purposes within both engineering fields. Even though there are many topics of common interest in the use of electromigration for the two fields, there is no tradition for collaboration. The present paper is a review with the aim of pointing out areas of shared interest. Focus is laid on the purposes of the different processes, transport rates of various ions in different materials and on changes in the matrix itself. Desorption and dissolution of the target elements into ionic form is a key issue to most of the processes, and can be the limiting step. The removal rate is generally below 1 cm day(- 1), but it can be much less than 1 mm day(- 1) when desorption is slow and insufficient. Matrix changes occurs under the action of the applied electric field and it includes both physico-chemical and hydrological changes. Some of the solid phases is weathered and new can be formed. Increased fundamental understanding of the effects and side effects, when applying the electric field to a porous material, can lead to improvement of the known technologies and possibly to new applications.

  14. 18 CFR 1304.208 - Shoreline stabilization on TVA-owned residential access shoreland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... of gabions and riprap to stabilize eroded shorelines. (1) The riprap material must be quarry-run stone, natural stone, or other material approved by TVA. (2) Rubber tires, concrete rubble, or other... concrete, gabions, or other materials acceptable to TVA. Railroad ties, rubber tires, broken concrete...

  15. Decadal shoreline assessment using remote sensing along the central Odisha coast, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    ManiMurali, R.; Dhiman, R.; Choudhary, R.; Jayakumar, S.; Ilangovan, D.; Vethamony, P.

    sensing data (Landsat and IRS P6) were used in the study. Digital shoreline analysis system discovered the eroded and accreted parts of the study area. Gahirmatha and coast above Devi River experienced heavy erosion during 2000–2012 compared with 1990...

  16. Preliminary study of soil liquefaction hazard at Terengganu shoreline, Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, H.; Suhatril, M.; Hashim, R.

    2017-06-01

    Terengganu is a shoreline state located in Peninsular Malaysia which is a growing hub for port industries and tourism centre. The northern part offers pristine settings of a relax beach areas whereas the southern part are observed to be a growing centre for development. The serious erosion on soil deposit along the beach line presents vulnerable soil condition to soil liquefaction consists of sandy with low plasticity and shallow ground water. Moreover, local earthquake from nearby fault have present significant tremors over the past few years which need to be considered in the land usage or future development in catering the seismic loading. Liquefaction analysis based on field standard penetration of soil is applied on 546 boreholes scattered along the shoreline areas ranging 244 km of shoreline stretch. Based on simplified approach, it is found that more than 70% of the studied areas pose high liquefaction potential since there are saturated loose sand and silt deposits layer ranges at depth 3 m and up to 20 m. The presence of clay deposits and hard stratum at the remaining 30% of the studied areas shows good resistance to soil liquefaction hence making the area less significant to liquefaction hazard. Result indicates that liquefaction improving technique is advisable in future development of shoreline areas of Terengganu state.

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