Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cong Ronggang; Wei Yiming; Jiao Jianlin; Fan Ying

2008-01-01

This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing index and some oil companies. Some 'important' oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices. Increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index, which raise their stock returns. Both the world oil price shocks and China oil price shocks can explain much more than interest rates for manufacturing index

The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on an Oil-exporting Economy

OpenAIRE

Omar Mendoza; David Vera

2010-01-01

We estimate the effects of unexpected changes in oil prices on output for the case of Venezuela, an oil-exporting economy. Following Hamilton (2003), Lee et al. (1995), and Mork (1989), we estimate measures of oil shocks and determine the effect of these

The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastianin, Andrea; Conti, Francesca; Manera, Matteo

2016-01-01

We study the effects of crude oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. We identify the causes underlying oil price shocks and gauge the impacts that oil supply and oil demand innovations have on financial volatility. We show that stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. On the contrary, demand shocks impact significantly on the volatility of the G7 stock markets. Our results suggest that economic policies and financial regulation activities designed to mitigate the adverse effects of unexpected oil price movements should be designed by looking at the source of the oil price shocks. - Highlights: • Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. • Econometric identification of the different causes of oil shocks. • Stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. • Demand shocks impact significantly on stock market volatility. • Policy measures should be designed by considering the source of oil shocks.

Oil-Price Shocks: Beyond Standard Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Elwood, S. Kirk

2001-01-01

Explores the problems of portraying oil-price shocks using the aggregate demand/aggregate supply model. Presents a simple modification of the model that differentiates between production and absorption of goods, which enables it to better reflect the effects of oil-price shocks on open economies. (RLH)

The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cross, Jamie; Nguyen, Bao H.

2017-01-01

We employ a class of time-varying Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) models on new standard dataset of China's GDP constructed by to examine the relationship between China's economic growth and global oil market fluctuations between 1992Q1 and 2015Q3. We find that: (1) the time varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility provides a better fit as compared to it's constant counterparts; (2) the impacts of intertemporal global oil price shocks on China's output are often small and temporary in nature; (3) oil supply and specific oil demand shocks generally produce negative movements in China's GDP growth whilst oil demand shocks tend to have positive effects; (4) domestic output shocks have no significant impact on price or quantity movements within the global oil market. The results are generally robust to three commonly employed indicators of global economic activity: Kilian's global real economic activity index, the metal price index and the global industrial production index, and two alternative oil price metrics: the US refiners' acquisition cost for imported crude oil and the West Texas Intermediate price of crude oil. - Highlights: • A class of time-varying BVARs is used to examine the relationship between China's economic growth and global oil market fluctuations. • The impacts of intertemporal global oil price shocks on China's output are often small and temporary in nature. • Oil supply and specific oil demand shocks generally produce negative movements in China's GDP growth while oil demand shocks tend to have positive effects. • Domestic output shocks have no significant impact on price or quantity movements within the global oil market.

Improved Hypersonic Inlet Performance Using Validated Strut Compression Designs

Science.gov (United States)

Bulman, M. J.; Stout, P. W.; Fernandez, R.

1997-01-01

Aerojet is currently executing two Strutjet propulsion contracts: one a Rocket Based Combined Cycle (RBCC) engine for a NASA-Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Advanced Reusable Transportation Technology (ARTT) program, the second a Dual Mode Ram/Scramjet engine for a USAF Wright Laboratories Storable Fuel Scramjet Flow Path Concepts program. The engines employed in both programs operate at supersonic and low hypersonic speeds and use inlets employing forebody external and sidewall compression. Aerojet has developed and validated a successful design methodology applicable to these inlet types. Design features include an integrated vehicle forebody, external side compression struts, strut sidewall and throat bleed, a throat shock trap, and variable geometry internal contraction. Computation Fluid Dynamic (CFD) predictions and test data show these inlets allow substantially increased flow turning angles over other designs. These increased flow turning angles allow shorter and lighter engines than current designs, which in turn enables higher performing vehicles with broad operating characteristics. This paper describes the designs of two different inlets evaluated by the NASA-MSFC and USAF programs, discusses the results of wind tunnel tests performed by NASA-Lewis Research Center, and provides correlations of test data with CFD predictions. Parameters of interest include low Mach number starting capability, start sensitivity as a function of back pressure at various contraction ratios, flow turning angles, strut and throat bleed effects, and pressure recovery at various Mach numbers.

The asymmetric effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks. A nonlinear VAR approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahman, Sajjadur; Serletis, Apostolos

2010-01-01

In this paper we investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and monetary policy on macroeconomic activity, using monthly data for the United States, over the period from 1983:1 to 2008:12. In doing so, we use a logistic smooth transition vector autoregression (VAR), as detailed in Terasvirta and Anderson (1992) and Weise (1999), and make a distinction between two oil price volatility regimes (high and low), using the realized oil price volatility as a switching variable. We isolate the effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks and their asymmetry on output growth and, following Koop et al. (1996) and Weise (1999), we employ simulation methods to calculate Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) to trace the effects of independent shocks on the conditional means of the variables. Our results suggest that in addition to the price of oil, oil price volatility has an impact on macroeconomic activity and that monetary policy is not only reinforcing the effects of oil price shocks on output, it is also contributing to the asymmetric response of output to oil price shocks. (author)

The asymmetric effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks. A nonlinear VAR approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rahman, Sajjadur [Department of Economics, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon (Canada); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary (Canada)

2010-11-15

In this paper we investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and monetary policy on macroeconomic activity, using monthly data for the United States, over the period from 1983:1 to 2008:12. In doing so, we use a logistic smooth transition vector autoregression (VAR), as detailed in Terasvirta and Anderson (1992) and Weise (1999), and make a distinction between two oil price volatility regimes (high and low), using the realized oil price volatility as a switching variable. We isolate the effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks and their asymmetry on output growth and, following Koop et al. (1996) and Weise (1999), we employ simulation methods to calculate Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) to trace the effects of independent shocks on the conditional means of the variables. Our results suggest that in addition to the price of oil, oil price volatility has an impact on macroeconomic activity and that monetary policy is not only reinforcing the effects of oil price shocks on output, it is also contributing to the asymmetric response of output to oil price shocks. (author)

Oil shocks in New Keynesian models: Positive and normative implications

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Jian

Chapter 1 investigates optimal monetary policy response towards oil shocks in a New Keynesian model. We find that optimal policy, in general, becomes contractionary in response to an adverse oil shock. However, the optimal policy rule and the inflation-output trade-off depend on the specific structure of the model. The benchmark economy consists of a flexible-price energy sector and a sticky-price manufacturing sector where energy is used as an intermediate input. We show that optimal policy is to stabilize the sticky (core) price level. We then show that after incorporating a less oil-dependent sticky-price service sector, the model exhibits a trade-off in stabilizing prices and output gaps in the different sticky-price sectors. It predicts that central bank should not try to stabilize the core price level, and the economy will experience higher inflation and rising output gaps, even if central banks respond optimally. Chapter 2 addresses the observed volatility and persistence of real exchange rates and the terms of trade. It contributes to the literature with a quantitative study on the U.S. and Canada. A two-country New Keynesian model consisting of traded, non-traded, and oil production sectors is proposed to examine the time series properties of the real exchange rate, the terms of trade and the real oil price. We find that after incorporating several realistic features (namely oil price shocks, sector specific labor, non-traded goods, asymmetric pricing decisions of exporters and asymmetric consumer preferences over tradables), the benchmark model broadly matches the volatilities of the relative prices and some business cycle correlations. The model matches the data more closely after adding real demand shocks, suggesting their importance in explaining the relative price movements between the US and Canada. Chapter 3 explores several sources and transmission channels of international relative price movements. In particular, we elaborate on the role of

The impact of oil price shocks. Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jimenez-Rodriguez, Rebeca

2008-01-01

Most of the studies about the macroeconomic consequences of oil price shocks have been focused on US aggregate data. In contrast to these studies, this paper empirically assesses the dynamic effect of oil price shocks on the output of the main manufacturing industries in six OECD countries. The pattern of responses to an oil price shock by industrial output is diverse across the four European Monetary Union (EMU) countries under consideration (France, Germany, Italy, and Spain), but broadly similar in the UK and the US. Moreover, evidence on cross-industry heterogeneity of oil shock effects within the EMU countries is also reported. (author)

Heterogeneous effects of oil shocks on exchange rates: evidence from a quantile regression approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Xianfang; Zhu, Huiming; You, Wanhai; Ren, Yinghua

2016-01-01

The determinants of exchange rates have attracted considerable attention among researchers over the past several decades. Most studies, however, ignore the possibility that the impact of oil shocks on exchange rates could vary across the exchange rate returns distribution. We employ a quantile regression approach to address this issue. Our results indicate that the effect of oil shocks on exchange rates is heterogeneous across quantiles. A large US depreciation or appreciation tends to heighten the effects of oil shocks on exchange rate returns. Positive oil demand shocks lead to appreciation pressures in oil-exporting countries and this result is robust across lower and upper return distributions. These results offer rich and useful information for investors and decision-makers.

Oil: a shock without any visible trauma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rifflart, Christine

2005-10-01

Since the beginning of the 2000's, crude oil price has increased by more than 250 %. Contrary to the 1973 and 1979 shocks, the world economic growth does not look to have been so much affected by the present shock - it is above 4 % a year for three years - and the inflation is still moderated, even in the US despite of a higher economic perform than in Euro Area. Nevertheless, the oil prices have strongly risen. So, to compensate the relative decrease of their real income, households are attempted to get further into debt. The enterprises urge to push labour costs down to neutralize the increase of the inputs prices and be competitive. In the meantime, oil exporting countries receive a huge amount of liquidities that they use to import and reinvest in the international and regional financial markets, contributing to the low long term interest rates. Initially published in: 'Revue de l'OFCE', No.95, P. 159-173

Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in Brazil and in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cavalcanti, Tiago; Jalles, João Tovar

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► We find that output growth volatility in the US has been decreasing over time. ► The contribution of oil price shocks to such volatility has also been decreasing. ► In Brazil, oil shocks do not seem to have a clear impact on growth. ► They account for a small fraction of the Brazilian inflation and output volatility. ► Counterfactuals show US output would be 10% less volatile with Brazil’s oil import share. - Abstract: This paper studies the effects of oil price shocks in the last 30 years on the Brazilian and American inflation rate and rhythm of economic activity. The Brazilian and the United States economies are interesting polar cases, since they had a completely different path on the oil import dependence rate. While the oil import dependence rate has increase sharply in the United States (US), it has decreased substantially in Brazil. We found that output growth volatility in the United States has been decreasing over time as well as the contribution of oil price shocks to such volatility, despite the increase in oil import dependence. Inflation volatility has also been decreasing but oil price shocks are accounting for a larger fraction of this volatility in the US. In Brazil, such shocks do not seem to have a clear impact on output growth and they account for a very small fraction of the Brazilian inflation and output growth rate volatility. We finally run some counterfactual experiments to analyze how real output growth in the United States would had been if net oil import share in the United States behaved similarly to what was observed in Brazil. We conclude that output level would be roughly the same, however, it would be about 10% less volatile if the US had the actual Brazilian oil import share

The macroeconomics of "Oil Prices" and "Economic Shocks": Lessons from the 1970s

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Deepanshu Mohan

2015-10-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the relationship between oil price shocks and recessions and focuses particularly on the period of stagflation in the 1970s. Nearly every recession in the U.S. since WWII has been preceded by an oil price shock, and examining the literature as to the causal mechanisms finds there are a range of opinions from supply and demand side factors to the precipitated monetary policy response. Evaluating these across a number of countries finds that the mechanisms at play are complex and disputed. This paper reviews the literature and evaluates the various theories put forward before concluding that whilst oil plays a key role in the economy, the recessions following oil price shocks are more likely to be as a result of monetary policy decisions than the oil price shocks per se.

The relationship between post-stent strut apposition and follow-up strut coverage assessed by a contour plot optical coherence tomography analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jung-Sun; Ha, Jinyong; Kim, Byeong-Keuk; Shin, Dong-Ho; Ko, Young-Guk; Choi, Donghoon; Jang, Yangsoo; Hong, Myeong-Ki

2014-06-01

This study sought to evaluate the relationship between post-stent strut apposition and follow-up strut coverage using contour plot optical coherence tomographic analysis. Tracking the fate of interested regions of struts at different time points has not been investigated. Post-intervention and 6-month follow-up optical coherence tomographic evaluations were performed in 82 patients treated with biolimus- (n = 37) or sirolimus-eluting stents (n = 45). Post-stent apposition was classified as embedded, apposed, or malapposed. For volumetric stent evaluation, the post-intervention strut-artery distance and the neointimal thickness at follow-up were measured as a function of the circumferential arc length and longitudinal stent length. Computer-generated contour plots of the strut-artery distance and neointimal thickness were compared. The percentages of embedded and malapposed struts after intervention were 1.8% (Interquartile range [IQR]: 0.6% to 6.2%) and 2.3% (IQR: 0.5% to 5.2%), respectively. The percentages of uncovered and malapposed struts at 6 months were 16.0% (IQR: 7.4% to 33.3%) and 0% (IQR: 0% to 0.7%), respectively. The percentage of uncovered struts at 6 months varied significantly with post-stent strut apposition (0% [IQR: 0% to 11.4%] in embedded, 16.3% [IQR: 8.1% to 31.3%] in apposed, and 26.8% [IQR: 0% to 56.3%] in malapposed, p < 0.001 for all pairwise comparisons). In lesions without tissue prolapse, embedded struts were all covered (100% covered struts) compared with those with tissue prolapse (76.8% covered, p < 0.001). The optical coherence tomography-guided optimization of stent strut apposition enhances strut coverage at follow-up. This comprehensive method for evaluating strut apposition may provide more useful information to understanding the serial changes in strut coverage. (Neointimal Coverage After Implantation of Biolimus Eluting Stent With Biodegradable Polymer: Optical Coherence Tomographic Assessment According to the Treatment of

The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on real GDP in Iran

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Mohammad Taghi Khosravi Larijani

2013-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on GDP have been investigated by co-integration analysis in Iran economy during the period 1960-2010. We used Hodrick-Prescott filtering to separate positive shocks from negative shocks. The results showed that in long run the negative shocks have stronger effects on output than positive ones that can have damaging repercussions on economic growth. The findings have practical policy implications for decision makers in the area of macroeconomic planning. The use of stabilization and savings funds and diversification of the real sector seems crucial to minimize the harmful effects of oil booms and busts

Null-strut calculus. II. Dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kheyfets, A.; LaFave, N.J.; Miller, W.A.

1990-01-01

In this paper, we continue from the preceding paper to develop a fully functional Regge calculus geometrodynamic algorithm from the null-strut-calculus construction. The developments discussed include (a) the identification of the Regge calculus analogue of the constraint and evolution equations on the null-strut lattice, (b) a description of the Minkowski solid geometry for the simplicial blocks of the null-strut lattice, (c) a description of the evolution algorithm for the geometrodynamic scheme and an analysis of its consistency, and (d) a presentation of the dynamical degrees of freedom for a simplicial hypersurface and the description of an initial-value prescription. To demonstrate qualitatively this new approach to geometrodynamics, we present the most simple application of null-strut calculus that we know of---the Friedmann cosmology using the three-boundary of a 600-cell simplicial polytope to model the simplicial hypersurface

[Minor strut fracture of the Björk-Shiley mitral valve].

Science.gov (United States)

Sugita, T; Yasuda, R; Watarida, S; Onoe, M; Tabata, R; Mori, A

1990-06-01

In May, 1982, a 49-year-old man underwent mitral valve replacement (MVR) in our hospital with a 31 mm Björk-Shiley prosthesis for mitral regurgitation. He had been doing well until his episode of palpitation and dyspnea of sudden onset, and was transferred to our ICU with severe cardiogenic shock in Aug, 1986. Chest X-ray film revealed pulmonary edema and breakage of the valve with migration of the disc and the minor strut of the prosthesis. He was operated upon 5 hours after the onset of his complaints. The minor strut was removed from the left upper pulmonary vein and mitral valve re-replacement was done with a 29 mm Björk-Shiley Monostrut valve. The disc which had dislocated into the abdominal aorta was also recovered on the twenty-third post operative day. His postoperative course was uneventful. Immediate diagnosis and subsequent re-operation is absolute indication for rescue from acute cardiac failure due to mechanical failure of any prosthetic valve.

The effect of long and short time oil shocks on economic growth in Iran

OpenAIRE

Sayyed Abdolmajid Jalae; Sanaz Mohammadi

2012-01-01

Oil is one of the strategic good so that price fluctuations and shocks of it have major effects on economic growth and recession in depended countries to revenues of it. In this study, it is tried that the effect of oil price shocks investigated in two types (short and long time) on Economic growth in Iran. Its Period is from 1974 to 2006. According it, oil price uncertainty is quantized by GARCH model and is determined the effects of oil price shocks on economic growth in Iran during a short...

Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Jungwook; Ratti, Ronald A.

2008-01-01

Oil price shocks have a statistically significant impact on real stock returns contemporaneously and/or within the following month in the U.S. and 13 European countries over 1986:1-2005:12. Norway as an oil exporter shows a statistically significantly positive response of real stock returns to an oil price increase. The median result from variance decomposition analysis is that oil price shocks account for a statistically significant 6% of the volatility in real stock returns. For many European countries, but not for the U.S., increased volatility of oil prices significantly depresses real stock returns. The contribution of oil price shocks to variability in real stock returns in the U.S. and most other countries is greater than that of interest rate. An increase in real oil price is associated with a significant increase in the short-term interest rate in the U.S. and eight out of 13 European countries within one or two months. Counter to findings for the U.S. and for Norway, there is little evidence of asymmetric effects on real stock returns of positive and negative oil price shocks for oil importing European countries. (author)

The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from a Quantile Impulse Response Perspective

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Huiming Zhu

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This paper uses a quantile impulse response approach to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on Chinese stock returns. This process allows us to uncover asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on stock market returns by taking into account the different quantiles of oil price shocks. Our results show that the responses of Chinese stock market returns to oil price shocks differ greatly, depending on whether the oil and stock market is in a bust or boom state and whether the shock is driven by demand or supply. The impacts of oil price shocks on Chinese stock returns present asymmetric features. In particular during a bust phase, oil supply and demand shocks significantly depress stock market returns, while during a boom period, the aggregate demand shock enhances stock market returns. These results suggest some important implications for investors and decision makers.

After the Gulf crisis: The third oil shock is yet to come

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Criqui, P.

1991-01-01

The Gulf crisis had a major impact on world oil markets: for several months the flow of oil and the capacity to produce oil in the future in several key oil-producing countries were directly or indirectly threatened. A genuine oil shock was avoided because those who are involved in oil markets and in related international organizations maintained their composure. However, an examination of market fundamentals suggests that a return to strong dependence on supplies from the Gulf is probable during this decade if the price of oil does not rise sufficiently to bring about a growth trend in oil production by non-OPEC countries consistent with growth in world oil consumption. An analysis is presented of the oil price trends prior to, during and subsequent to the Gulf crisis, and two alternative scenarios are detailed for the year 2000: sustainable vs a third oil shock. 30 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

International oil shocks and household consumption in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Dayong; Broadstock, David C.; Cao, Hong

2014-01-01

We investigate the impacts that oil price shocks have on residential consumption in China. While it is well understood that oil prices affect consumption in a multitude of ways, the timing and directness of these effects on specific consumption categories is not clear. We demonstrate that the most immediate and direct effect passes through transportation consumption, as might be expected. But we also show that significant effects pass through consumption in other sectors—including “food and clothes”, “medical expenditure”, and other general “living expenditure”—with less immediacy. Given the results, particularly observed asymmetries with respect to rises and falls in international oil prices, we discuss some implications for future adjustments to domestic price policies, in particular the case for removal of domestic price regulation. - Highlights: • We study the impact of oil price shocks on residential consumption in China. • The most immediate effect passes through expenditure on transportation. • Effects also appear for health, education and food and clothing expenditure. • Existing price regulation offers no great benefit. • We argue that a compelling case for removing current price regulation exists

Evaluating the Mechanism of Oil Price Shocks and Fiscal Policy Responses in the Malaysian Economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bekhet, Hussain A; Yusoff, Nora Yusma Mohamed

2013-01-01

The paper aims to explore the symmetric impact of oil price shock on economy, to understand its mechanism channel and how fiscal policy response towards it. The Generalized Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition under the VAR methodology were employed. The empirical findings suggest that symmetric oil price shock has a positive and direct impact on oil revenue and government expenditure. However, the real GDP is vulnerable in a short-term but not in the long term period. These results would confirm that fiscal policy is the main mechanism channel that mitigates the adverse effects oil price shocks to the economy.

Evaluating the Mechanism of Oil Price Shocks and Fiscal Policy Responses in the Malaysian Economy

Science.gov (United States)

Bekhet, Hussain A.; Yusoff, Nora Yusma Mohamed

2013-06-01

The paper aims to explore the symmetric impact of oil price shock on economy, to understand its mechanism channel and how fiscal policy response towards it. The Generalized Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition under the VAR methodology were employed. The empirical findings suggest that symmetric oil price shock has a positive and direct impact on oil revenue and government expenditure. However, the real GDP is vulnerable in a short-term but not in the long term period. These results would confirm that fiscal policy is the main mechanism channel that mitigates the adverse effects oil price shocks to the economy.

Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in BRICs

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Ono, Shigeki

2011-06-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of oil prices on real stock returns for Brazil, China, India and Russia over 1999:1-2009:9 using VAR models. The results suggest that whereas real stock returns positively respond to some of the oil price indicators with statistical significance for China, India and Russia, those of Brazil do not show any significant responses. In addition, statistically significant asymmetric effects of oil price increases and decreases are observed in India. The analysis of variance decomposition shows that the contribution of oil price shocks to volatility in real stock returns is relatively large and statistically significant for China and Russia.

Oil Shocks and Stock Prices of Airlines - An East Asia Perspective

OpenAIRE

Lee, Pau Boon

2005-01-01

The aim of this dissertation is to study and analyse the impact of oil price shock on the share prices of airline companies in East Asia, in particular international air carriers from Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia by looking at how the companies‘ share prices respond to the news of oil shocks. The companies involved in this study were Japan Airlines ("JAL"), All Nippon Airways ("ANA"), Cathay Pacific Airways ("Cathay"), Korean Air ("KAL"), Malaysian Airlines ("MAS") an...

The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Turkish Business Cycle: A Markov Switching Approach

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Vasif Abiyev

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between oil price changes and the output growth in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach - The data were taken from International Financial Statistics databases, consisting of monthly data for the period 1986:01-2014:09. Different univariate Markov - switching regime autoregressive models are specified and estimated. Among them we selected univariate MSIH(3 - AR(2 model for output and extended it to verify if the inclusion of various asymmetric oil price shocks as an exogenous variable improves the ability of the Markov switching model. Four different oil price shocks are considered. Findings - We find that among various oil price shocks, only net oil price increases have negative effects on output growth and mitigate the magnitude of some recessionary periods in Turkey. However, it doesn’t strongly explain the behavior of business cycle in Turkey. Research limitations/implications - Our results suggest that the inclusion of other fundamental financial factors in the bivariate Markov switching model of aggregate economic activity and oil price changes becomes important to explicitly detect the negative impact of oil price shocks on output in Turkey. Originality/value - Our results support the existence of a negative relationship between oil price increases and output growth mentioned in the literature and empirical studies on Turkey.

Role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities: An SVAR approach to the Malaysian economy and monetary responses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher; Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul

2011-01-01

This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on Malaysian macroeconomic activities and monetary responses. We use a structural VAR (SVAR) model based on monthly data over the period 1986−2009. The EGARCH model estimates show an important asymmetric effect of oil price shocks on the conditional oil price volatility. Dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the SVAR model show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on Malaysian industrial production. We also find that levels of Consumer Price Index (CPI) decline with a positive shock to oil price uncertainty. This is the result of negative demand shock due to the postponement of consumption of big ticket items by individuals, households and other sectors of the economy. We also found that the Malaysian central bank adopts an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price uncertainty. Variance decomposition analysis reconfirms that volatility in the oil price is the second most important factor to explain the variance of industrial production after its own shocks. These results shed some light on how the central bank of Malaysia can use controlling mechanisms to stabilize aggregate output and price level. - Highlights: ► Conditional volatility of the oil price causes a significant decline in aggregate output. ► Price level falls significantly to one standard deviation shock to oil price uncertainty. ► Malaysian central bank adopts an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks.

Oil shock transmission to stock market returns: Wavelet-multivariate Markov switching GARCH approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jammazi, Rania

2012-01-01

Since oil prices are typically governed by nonlinear and chaotic behavior, it’s become rather difficult to capture the dominant properties of their fluctuations. In recent years, unprecedented interest emerged on the decomposition methods in order to capture drifts or spikes relatively to this data. Together, our understanding of the nature of crude oil price shocks and their effects on the stock market returns has evolved noticeably. We accommodate these findings to investigate two issues that have been at the center of recent debates on the effect of crude oil shocks on the stock market returns of five developed countries (USA, UK, Japan, Germany and Canada). First, we analyze whether shocks and or volatility emanating from two major crude oil markets are transmitted to the equity markets. We do this by applying, the Haar A Trous Wavelet decomposition to monthly real crude oil series in a first step, and the trivariate BEKK Markov Switching GARCH model to analyze the effect of the smooth part on the degree of the stock market instability in a second step. The motivation behind the use of the former method is that noises and erratic behavior often appeared at the edge of the signal, can affect the quality of the shock and thus increase erroneous results of the shock transmission to the stock market. The proposed model is able to circumvent the path dependency problem that can influence the prediction’s robustness and can provide useful information for investors and government agencies that have largely based their views on the notion that crude oil markets affect negatively stock market returns. Second, under the hypothesis of common increased volatility, we investigate whether these states happen around the identified international crises. Indeed, the results show that the A Haar Trous Wavelet decomposition method appears to be an important step toward improving accuracy of the smooth signal in detecting key real crude oil volatility features. Additionally

Terms of trade, countertrade and recycling under oil price shocks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tolonen, Y. (Turku School of Economics (Finland))

1989-01-01

In this paper we first analyse the consequences of oil pricedisturbances in a model of two oil importing and one oil producingcountries. Attention is given both to the terms of trade between theoil importers and to the recycling of the oil revenues of the oilproducer to imports from these oil importing countries. Secondly,extending the model by another oil producer we discuss a situationwhere a part of the oil trade takes place on a countertrade basis. Thequestion is whether such countertrade deals are advantageous or notwhen oil price shocks occur. Various factors are presented upon whichthe outcome depends. 12 refs., 2 tabs., 1 app.

Oil price shocks and policy implications the emergence of U.S. tight oil production: a case study

OpenAIRE

Voth, Jeffrey Michael

2015-01-01

How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since ...

EFFECTS OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE ECONOMIC SECTORS IN MALAYSIA

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Mohd Shahidan Shaari

2013-10-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to examine the effects of oil price shocks on economic sectors in Malaysia. A unit root test was conducted, in which data were shown to be non-stationary in all levels, and stationary in the first difference for all variables. The co-integration model was applied, and the results indicated that one co-integrating equation exists, suggesting the long-term effects of oil prices on the agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and transportation sectors. Finally, Grange causality test was performed, and the results implied that in Malaysia, oil price shocks can affect agriculture, similar to Hanson et al. (2010. Oil price instability also influences the performance of the agriculture sector, contrary to the results of Alper and Torul (2009. In addition, the construction sector was found to be dependent on oil prices. Therefore, the current study has an important implication for the Malaysian government in formulating policies on oil prices. The Malaysian government needs to control the price to ensure that unstable price will not harm the agriculture, manufacturing, and construction sectors.

The effects of oil price shocks in a new-Keynesian framework with capital accumulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Acurio Vásconez, Verónica; Giraud, Gaël; Mc Isaac, Florent; Pham, Ngoc-Sang

2015-01-01

The economic implications of oil price shocks have been extensively studied since the 1970s. Despite this huge literature, no dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was available that captures two well-known stylized facts: (1) the stagflationary impact of an oil price shock, together with (2) the influence of the energy efficiency of capital on the depth and length of this impact. We build, estimate and simulate a New-Keynesian model with capital accumulation, which takes the case of an economy where oil is imported from abroad, and where these stylized facts can be accounted for. Moreover, the Bayesian estimation of the model on the US economy (1984–2007) suggests that the output elasticity of oil might have been above 10%, stressing the role of oil use in US growth at this time. Finally, our simulations confirm that an increase in energy efficiency significantly attenuates the effects of an oil shock—a possible explanation of why the third oil shock (1999–2008) did not have the same macro-economic impact as the first two ones. These results suggest that oil consumption and energy efficiency have been two major engines for US growth in the last three decades.

The influence of oil price shocks on china’s macro-economy: A perspective of international trade

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dengke Chen

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This paper is aimed at investigating and understanding the relationship between China’s macro-economy and oil price from a new perspective—the international trade perspective. We find strong evidence to suggest that the increase of China’s price level, resulting from oil price shocks, is statistically less than that of its main trade partners’. This helps us to understand the confused empirical results estimated within the SVAR framework. More specifically, SVAR results suggest that China’s output level is positively correlated with the oil price. Positive correlation between China’s output and oil price shocks presumably results from the drop in China’s relative price induced by oil price shocks, which is inclined to stimulate China’s goods and service exports.

Quantifying the effects of oil shocks on long-term public debt: A review of empirical data and a scenario analysis of future projections

Science.gov (United States)

McMichael, Jillian Taylor

Various authors have shown that each oil shock in the past 40 years has had statistically significant impacts on subsequent macroeconomic activity in the United States. Through these economic effects, oil shocks affect Federal revenues and expenditures and hence public debt. Published Federal budget scenarios do not currently reflect these impacts of oil shocks. I synthesize, in this paper, literature quantifying the impact of oil price increases on GDP growth and use that information to modify current long-term Federal budget models to present scenarios of how oil shocks are likely to affect long-term Federal debt. I argue that modeling the impact of oil price increases on long-term public debt could inform public policies, particularly those relating to Federal investments in energy conservation. Key Words: crude oil, oil shock, oil price spike, oil shock, Federal debt, debt projections, Congressional Budget Office

Investigation of strut-ramp injector in a Scramjet combustor: Effect of strut geometry, fuel and jet diameter on mixing characteristics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soni, Rahul Kumar; De, Ashoke De [Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur (India)

2017-03-15

The strut-based injector has been found to be one of the most promising injector designs for a supersonic combustor, offering enhanced mixing of fuel and air. The mixing and flow field characteristics of the straight (SS) and Tapered strut (TS), with fixed ramp angle and height at free stream Mach number 2 in conjunction with fuel injection at Mach 2.3 have been investigated numerically and reported. In the present investigation, hydrogen (H{sub 2}) and ethylene (C{sub 2}H{sub 4}) are injected in oncoming supersonic flow from the back of the strut, where jet to free stream momentum ratio is maintained at 0.79 and 0.69 for H2 and C{sub 2}H{sub 4}, respectively. The predicted wall static pressure and species mole fractions at various downstream locations are compared with the experimental data for TS case with 0.6 mm jet diameter and found to be in good agreement. Further, the effect of jet diameter and strut geometry on the near field mixing in strut ramp configuration is discussed for both the fuels. The numerical results are assessed based on various parameters for the performance evaluation of different strut ramp configurations. The SS configuration for both the injectant has been found to be an optimum candidate; also it is observed that for higher jet diameter larger combustor length is required to achieve satisfactory near field mixing.

Null-strut calculus. I. Kinematics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kheyfets, A.; LaFave, N.J.; Miller, W.A.

1990-01-01

This paper describes the kinematics of null-strut calculus---a 3+1 Regge calculus approach to general relativity. We show how to model the geometry of spacetime with simplicial spacelike three-geometries (TET's) linked to ''earlier'' and ''later'' momentumlike lattice surfaces (TET * ) entirely by light rays or ''null struts.'' These three-layered lattice spacetime geometries are defined and analyzed using combinatorial formulas for the structure of polytopes. The following paper in this series describes how these three-layered spacetime lattices are used to model spacetimes in full conformity with Einstein's theory of gravity

Economic Exposure to Oil Price Shocks and the Fragility of Oil-Exporting Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Toon Vandyck

2018-04-01

Full Text Available From a price range between 100 and 120 USD (U.S. dollars per barrel in 2011–2014, the crude oil price fell from mid-2014 onwards, reaching a level of 26 USD per barrel in January 2016. Here we assess the economic consequences of this strong decrease in the oil price. A retrospective analysis based on data of the past 25 years sheds light on the vulnerability of oil-producing regions to the oil price volatility. Gross domestic product (GDP and government revenues in many Gulf countries exhibit a strong dependence on oil, while more diversified economies improve resilience to oil price shocks. The lack of a sovereign wealth fund, in combination with limited oil reserves, makes parts of Sub-Saharan Africa particularly vulnerable to sustained periods of low oil prices. Next, we estimate the macroeconomic impacts of a 60% oil price drop for all regions in the world. A numerical simulation yields a global GDP increase of roughly 1% and illustrates how the regional impact on GDP relates to oil export dependence. Finally, we reflect on the broader implications (such as migration flows of macroeconomic responses to oil prices and look ahead to the challenge of structural change in a world committed to limiting global warming.

Cost of Oil and Biomass Supply Shocks under Different Biofuel Supply Chain Configurations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Uria Martinez, Rocio [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Brown, Maxwell L. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

2018-04-01

This analysis estimates the cost of selected oil and biomass supply shocks for producers and consumers in the light-duty vehicle fuel market under various supply chain configurations using a mathematical programing model, BioTrans. The supply chain configurations differ by whether they include selected flexibility levers: multi-feedstock biorefineries; advanced biomass logistics; and the ability to adjust ethanol content of low-ethanol fuel blends, from E10 to E15 or E05. The simulated scenarios explore market responses to supply shocks including substitution between gasoline and ethanol, substitution between different sources of ethanol supply, biorefinery capacity additions or idling, and price adjustments. Welfare effects for the various market participants represented in BioTrans are summarized into a net shock cost measure. As oil accounts for a larger fraction of fuel by volume, its supply shocks are costlier than biomass supply shocks. Corn availability and the high cost of adding biorefinery capacity limit increases in ethanol use during gasoline price spikes. During shocks that imply sudden decreases in the price of gasoline, the renewable fuel standard (RFS) biofuel blending mandate limits the extent to which flexibility can be exercised to reduce ethanol use. The selected flexibility levers are most useful in response to cellulosic biomass supply shocks.

Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cunado, Juncal; Gracia, Fernando Perez de

2003-01-01

This paper analyzes the oil price-macro economy relationship by means of analyzing the impact of oil prices on inflation and industrial production indexes for many European countries using quarterly data for the period 1960-1999. First, we test for cointegration allowing for structural breaks among the variables. Second, and in order to account for the possible non-linear relationships, we use different transformation of oil price data. The main results suggest that oil prices have permanent effects on inflation and short run but asymmetric effects on production growth rates. Furthermore, significant differences are found among the responses of the countries to these shocks. (Author)

[Late outlet strut fracture of an aortic Björk-Shiley and embolization of the prosthetic disc].

Science.gov (United States)

Brochet, E; Bougis de Brux, M A; Assayag, P; Benacin, Y; Gamerman, G; Guerot, C; Valère, P E

1988-09-01

A new case of late fracture of an outlet strut in a convexo-concave Björk-Shiley valve is reported. The fracture occurred 6 years after aortic implantation of the valve and was responsible for aorto-iliac embolization by the prosthetic disc and death of the patient from cardiogenic shock. This not uncommon complication of the Björk-Shiley valve prosthesis is usually ascribed to the relative fragility of its outlet strut welded to the metallic ring and subjected to strong pressures. Although most cases were observed within the first two years of prosthetic valve insertion, and mainly with valves manufactured in 1981 and 1982, our case and a few others demonstrate the possibility of late rupture. Cardiologists must be aware of this possible complication, since in some favourable cases it can be diagnosed at an early stage and the patient's life can be saved by an emergency operation.

The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Chuanguo; Chen, Xiaoqing

2014-01-01

This paper investigated the reaction of aggregate commodity market to oil price shocks and also explored the effects of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries: metals, petrochemicals, grains and oilfats. We separated the volatilities of oil price into expected, unexpected and negatively expected categories to identify how oil prices influence bulk commodity markets. We contrasted the results between different periods and among classified indices, in order to discover the significant changes in recent years and the differences at an industry level. Our results indicate that the aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities in China. The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices, in contrast to the petrochemicals and oilfats indices. These results not only contribute to advancing the existing literature, but also merit particular attention from policy makers and market investors in China. - Highlights: • We investigated the impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries. • The aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities. • The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. • The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices

The impact of oil-price shocks on Hawaii's economy: A case study using vector autoregression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gopalakrishnan, C.; Tian, X.; Tran, D.

1991-01-01

The effects of oil-price shocks on the macroeconomic performance of a non-oil-producing, oil-importing state are studied in terms of Hawaii's experience (1974-1986) using Vector Autoregression (VAR). The VAR model contains three macrovariables-real oil price, interest rate, and real GNP, and three regional variable-total civilian labor force, Honolulu consumer price index, and real personal income. The results suggested that oil-price shock had a positive effect on interest rate as well as local price (i.e., higher interest and higher local price), but a negative influence on real GNP. The negative income effect, however, was offset by the positive employment effect. The price of oil was found to be exogenous to all other variables in the system. The macrovariables exerted a pronounced impact on Hawaii's economy, most notably on consumer price

Effect of Temperature Shock and Inventory Surprises on Natural Gas and Heating Oil Futures Returns

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, John Wei-Shan; Lin, Chien-Yu

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station. PMID:25133233

Stress analysis of two-dimensional cellular materials with thick cell struts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Do Hyung; Kim, Han Sung; Kim, Young Ho; Kim, Yoon Hyuk; Al-Hassani, S.T.S.

2008-01-01

Finite element analyses (FEA) were performed to thoroughly validate the collapse criteria of cellular materials presented in our previous companion paper. The maximum stress (von-Mises stress) on the cell strut surface and the plastic collapse stress were computed for two-dimensional (2D) cellular materials with thick cell struts. The results from the FEA were compared with those from theoretical criteria of authors. The FEA results were in good agreement with the theoretical results. The results indicate that when bending moment, axial and shear forces are considered, the maximum stress on the strut surface gives significantly different values in the tensile and compressive parts of the cell wall as well as in the two loading directions. Therefore, for the initial yielding of ductile cellular materials and the fracture of brittle cellular materials, in which the maximum stress on the strut surface is evaluated, it is necessary to consider not only the bending moment but also axial and shear forces. In addition, this study shows that for regular cellular materials with the identical strut geometry for all struts, the initial yielding and the plastic collapse under a biaxial state of stress occur not only in the inclined cell struts but also in the vertical struts. These FEA results support the theoretical conclusion of our previous companion paper that the anisotropic 2D cellular material has a truncated yield surface not only on the compressive quadrant but also on the tensile quadrant

Improvement and Application of the Softened Strut-and-Tie Model

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Guoxi; Wang, Debin; Diao, Yuhong; Shang, Huaishuai; Tang, Xiaocheng; Sun, Hai

2017-11-01

Previous experimental researches indicate that reinforced concrete beam-column joints play an important role in the mechanical properties of moment resisting frame structures, so as to require proper design. The aims of this paper are to predict the joint carrying capacity and cracks development theoretically. Thus, a rational model needs to be developed. Based on the former considerations, the softened strut-and-tie model is selected to be introduced and analyzed. Four adjustments including modifications of the depth of the diagonal strut, the inclination angle of diagonal compression strut, the smeared stress of mild steel bars embedded in concrete, as well as the softening coefficient are made. After that, the carrying capacity of beam-column joint and cracks development are predicted using the improved softened strut-and-tie model. Based on the test results, it is not difficult to find that the improved softened strut-and-tie model can be used to predict the joint carrying capacity and cracks development with sufficient accuracy.

Estimating core inflation : the role of oil price shocks and imported inflation

OpenAIRE

Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane

1997-01-01

This paper calculates core inflation, by imposing long run restrictions on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model containing the growth rate of output, inflation and oil prices. Core inflation is identified as that component in inflation that has no long run effect on output. No restrictions are placed on the response of output and inflation to the oil price shocks. The analysis is applied to Norway and the United Kingdom, both oil producing OECD countries. A model that ...

Yield Strength Testing in Human Cadaver Nasal Septal Cartilage and L-Strut Constructs.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yuan F; Messinger, Kelton; Inman, Jared C

2017-01-01

To our knowledge, yield strength testing in human nasal septal cartilage has not been reported to date. An understanding of the basic mechanics of the nasal septum may help surgeons decide how much of an L-strut to preserve and how much grafting is needed. To determine the factors correlated with yield strength of the cartilaginous nasal septum and to explore the association between L-strut width and thickness in determining yield strength. In an anatomy laboratory, yield strength of rectangular pieces of fresh cadaver nasal septal cartilage was measured, and regression was performed to identify the factors correlated with yield strength. To measure yield strength in L-shaped models, 4 bonded paper L-struts models were constructed for every possible combination of the width and thickness, for a total of 240 models. Mathematical modeling using the resultant data with trend lines and surface fitting was performed to quantify the associations among L-strut width, thickness, and yield strength. The study dates were November 1, 2015, to April 1, 2016. The factors correlated with nasal cartilage yield strength and the associations among L-strut width, thickness, and yield strength in L-shaped models. Among 95 cartilage pieces from 12 human cadavers (mean [SD] age, 67.7 [12.6] years) and 240 constructed L-strut models, L-strut thickness was the only factor correlated with nasal septal cartilage yield strength (coefficient for thickness, 5.54; 95% CI, 4.08-7.00; P cadaver nasal septal cartilage, L-strut thickness was significantly associated with yield strength. In a bonded paper L-strut model, L-strut thickness had a more important role in determining yield strength than L-strut width. Surgeons should consider the thickness of potential L-struts when determining the amount of cartilaginous septum to harvest and graft. NA.

Effects of Oil Shocks on the Unemployment: GVAR Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malek KhojastehNeghad

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Oil is not only one of the most significant and useful consumer goods but also is a remarkable material in energy production all around the world which has a lot of price fluctuation. oil shocks consider as a principal factor of many financial crises and have various effects on economy of countries. Hence, the assessment of price fluctuations on macroeconomic variables such as unemployment seems important. This paper survey the oil price inconstancy on unemployment in 31countries during the period from the second quarter of 1985 to the fourth quarter of 2009 through Global Vector Auto-Regression model. Results demonstrate except of the rest of W. Europe, there is a positive relationship between oil prices oscillation and unemployment. It should be noted in many area the feedback along with the lag that depends on the ratio of oil cost in national income, reliance level to imported oil, end-users ability to reduce their usage and substitute other sources, gas consumption quantity in economy, effect of higher prices on other energy sources, monetary policies adopt when face with oil price swaging and capability of goverments to apply the vary policies.

The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on IIP and CPI in Emerging Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yukino Sakashita

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the effects of oil price shocks on the production and price level in five emerging countries through comparison with the United States, using a two-block structural VAR model of the global crude oil market proposed by Kilian and Park (see International Economic, vol. 50, 2009, pp. 1267–1287. Our main finding is that the effect of oil price shocks on the index of the industrial production (IIP and consumer price index (CPI in emerging countries also depends on where the changes fundamentally come from (this is also the case for the United States. We also found that some emerging countries showed unique impulse response patterns, the shapes of which are different from those of the United States and there are differences in impulse response patterns among emerging countries.

Oil price shocks: Sectoral and dynamic adjustments in a small-open developed and oil-exporting economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dissou, Yazid

2010-01-01

The recent uptrend in oil prices represents both an opportunity and a challenge for small-open developed and oil-exporting countries. Using Canada as a study case and in contrast to most studies that use aggregate models, this paper employs a multi-sector, intertemporal general equilibrium model to provide perspectives on the sectoral, aggregate and dynamic adjustments of a sustained increase in oil prices. It highlights the transmission channels through which the rise in oil prices affects the domestic economy. The simulation results suggest that the shock would have positive aggregate impacts, but would also spur the reallocation of resources and would therefore induce disparities in sectoral adjustments. The suggested contraction in some industries could not however be attributed to a pure Dutch disease phenomenon because of, among other factors, the cost-push effect induced by the increase in oil prices.

The effects of oil shocks on government expenditures and government revenues nexus in Iran (as a developing oil-export based economy)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S.F. Dizaji (Sajjad Faraji)

2012-01-01

textabstractThe main purpose of this study is to investigate the dynamic relationship between government revenues and government expenditures in Iran as a developing oil export based economy. Moreover, I want to know how government expenditures and revenues respond to oil price (revenue) shocks. I

Computational simulation of multi-strut central lobed injection of hydrogen in a scramjet combustor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gautam Choubey

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Multi-strut injection is an approach to increase the overall performance of Scramjet while reducing the risk of thermal choking in a supersonic combustor. Hence computational simulation of Scramjet combustor at Mach 2.5 through multiple central lobed struts (three struts have been presented and discussed in the present research article. The geometry and model used here is slight modification of the DLR (German Aerospace Center scramjet model. Present results show that the presence of three struts injector improves the performance of scramjet combustor as compared to single strut injector. The combustion efficiency is also found to be highest in case of three strut fuel injection system. In order to validate the results, the numerical data for single strut injection is compared with experimental result which is taken from the literature.

Automated measurement of stent strut coverage in intravascular optical coherence tomography

Science.gov (United States)

Ahn, Chi Young; Kim, Byeong-Keuk; Hong, Myeong-Ki; Jang, Yangsoo; Heo, Jung; Joo, Chulmin; Seo, Jin Keun

2015-02-01

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a non-invasive, cross-sectional imaging modality that has become a prominent imaging method in percutaneous intracoronary intervention. We present an automated detection algorithm for stent strut coordinates and coverage in OCT images. The algorithm for stent strut detection is composed of a coordinate transformation from the polar to the Cartesian domains and application of second derivative operators in the radial and the circumferential directions. Local region-based active contouring was employed to detect lumen boundaries. We applied the method to the OCT pullback images acquired from human patients in vivo to quantitatively measure stent strut coverage. The validation studies against manual expert assessments demonstrated high Pearson's coefficients ( R = 0.99) in terms of the stent strut coordinates, with no significant bias. An averaged Hausdorff distance of < 120 μm was obtained for vessel border detection. Quantitative comparison in stent strut to vessel wall distance found a bias of < 12.3 μm and a 95% confidence of < 110 μm.

Variable volume combustor with aerodynamic support struts

Science.gov (United States)

Ostebee, Heath Michael; Johnson, Thomas Edward; Stewart, Jason Thurman; Keener, Christopher Paul

2017-03-07

The present application provides a combustor for use with a gas turbine engine. The combustor may include a number of micro-mixer fuel nozzles and a fuel injection system for providing a flow of fuel to the micro-mixer fuel nozzles. The fuel injection system may include a number of support struts supporting the fuel nozzles and providing the flow of fuel therethrough. The support struts may include an aerodynamic contoured shape so as to distribute evenly a flow of air to the micro-mixer fuel nozzles.

Nonlinear process in the mode transition in typical strut-based and cavity-strut based scramjet combustors

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Li; Liao, Lei; Huang, Wei; Li, Lang-quan

2018-04-01

The analysis of nonlinear characteristics and control of mode transition process is the crucial issue to enhance the stability and reliability of the dual-mode scramjet engine. In the current study, the mode transition processes in both strut-based combustor and cavity-strut based combustor are numerically studied, and the influence of the cavity on the transition process is analyzed in detail. The simulations are conducted by means of the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations coupled with the renormalization group (RNG) k-ε turbulence model and the single-step chemical reaction mechanism, and this numerical approach is proved to be valid by comparing the predicted results with the available experimental shadowgraphs in the open literature. During the mode transition process, an obvious nonlinear property is observed, namely the unevenly variations of pressure along the combustor. The hysteresis phenomenon is more obvious upstream of the flow field. For the cavity-strut configuration, the whole flow field is more inclined to the supersonic state during the transition process, and it is uneasy to convert to the ramjet mode. In the scram-to-ram transition process, the process would be more stable, and the hysteresis effect would be reduced in the ram-to-scram transition process.

Analytical prediction of the unsteady lift on a rotor caused by downstream struts

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, A. C., III; Ng, W. F.

1987-01-01

A two-dimensional, inviscid, incompressible procedure is presented for predicting the unsteady lift on turbomachinery blades caused by the upstream potential disturbance of downstream flow obstructions. Using the Douglas-Neumann singularity superposition potential flow computer program to model the downstream flow obstructions, classical equations of thin airfoil theory are then employed, to compute the unsteady lift on the upstream rotor blades. The method is applied to a particular geometry which consists of a rotor, a downstream stator, and downstream struts which support the engine casing. Very good agreement between the Douglas-Neumann program and experimental measurements was obtained for the downstream stator-strut flow field. The calculations for the unsteady lift due to the struts were in good agreement with the experiments in showing that the unsteady lift due to the struts decays exponentially with increased axial separation of the rotor and the struts. An application of the method showed that for a given axial spacing between the rotor and the strut, strut-induced unsteady lift is a very weak function of the axial or circumferential position of the stator.

Irradiated strut allografts for reconstructing tumour defects: how effective?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Astrid Lobo Gajiwala; Manish Agarwal; Ajay Puri; Cynthia D Lima

2008-01-01

Full text: Allografts are biological options for reconstructing large bone defects. We report our experience with 87 irradiated (25 kGy of gamma radiation) strut allografts used in various defects following tumour surgery. Reconstruction in 35 full segment defects involved 22 full segment allografts used alone, 4 allograft prosthetic composites (APC) and 9 allografts combined with a vascularized fibula. Twelve partial segment defects were reconstructed with allograft struts (including 2 APC). Full segment allograft struts (mainly fibulae) were used in 40 contained post-curettage defects. The cases were studied for time to incorporation and complications. The follow-up ranged from 12 to 72 months. Of the 26 full segment defects where allograft alone or APC was used, 2 were lost to follow-up, 5 died before incorporation and 3 grafts were removed (2 infection and 1 local recurrence). Six united primarily at 2-4 years. Seven patients with non union were autografted at both junctions resulting in 6 unions. One patient had early plate breakage and refused further treatment. One allograft fractured after union after autografting. Two of 4 APC also united. In contrast, the 9 allograft-vascularized fibula combinations showed unambiguous incorporation between 5-9 months with only one junction requiring bone grafting. Of the 12 partial segment struts, barring one removed for infection, 11 have completely incorporated. Thirty one out of 40 struts placed within contained post curettage defects have incorporated (2 removed for infection and seven lost to follow-up). There were total 6 infections (7%) 4 of which occurred 1-2 years after surgery. Irradiated full segment struts alone incorporate poorly and are best used combined with a live fibula. Irradiated full and partial segment allografts used inside contained defects give consistently good results. Frozen grafts seem to incorporate faster and better than lyophilised grafts. (Author)

Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aydin, Levent; Acar, Mustafa

2011-01-01

As a small open economy, Turkey depends on both imported oil and natural gas, importing almost two-thirds of its primary energy demand. This paper analyzes the economic effects of oil price shocks for Turkey as a small, open oil- and gas-importing country. To analyze the potential long-term effects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables of interest, including GDP, consumer price inflation, indirect tax revenues, trade balance, and carbon emissions, we developed TurGEM-D, a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model for the Turkish economy. Using TurGEM-D, we analyzed the impact of oil price shocks under three distinct scenarios: reference, high and low oil prices. The simulation results show that these oil prices have very significant effects on macro indicators and carbon emissions in the Turkish economy. - Research highlights: → World oil prices are projected to rise in coming decade, to around $185 per barrel in 2020. → If this occurs in Turkey, how to quantitatively evaluate the impacts on Turkish economy? → Cumulative output loss resulting from world oil prices increased by 121% can be as large as 14%. → Cumulative inflation as measured by CPI index can be nearly 5% under a fixed exchange rate regime. → Cumulative carbon emissions fall by around 51.7% without using any tools for climate change policy.

The influence of oil leak in modern vehicle shock absorber on its dumping characteristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafał BURDZIK

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents results of the modern vehicle shock absorbers’ researches on indicator test stand. On this stand can be determined the diagrams of force versus displacement and force versus velocity. These diagrams can be determined for changeable strokes and constant velocities or the opposite way round. In researches the modern hydraulic twin-tube vehicle shock absorber was modificated and the changes of oil volume were possible. There was determined the influence of oil volume changes on force versus displacement and force versus velocity diagrams. On the basis of force versus velocity diagrams, the dumping characteristics were determined (value of force for maximum velocity on this diagram. The influence of oil volume changes on dumping characteristics was determined too. The results of this investigation can be used in simulation researches of vehicle suspension dynamic.

Vena Cava Filter Retrieval with Aorto-Iliac Arterial Strut Penetration.

Science.gov (United States)

Holly, Brian P; Gaba, Ron C; Lessne, Mark L; Lewandowski, Robert J; Ryu, Robert K; Desai, Kush R; Sing, Ronald F

2018-05-03

To evaluate the safety and technical success of inferior vena cava (IVC) filter retrieval in the setting of aorto-iliac arterial strut penetration. IVC filter registries from six large United States IVC filter retrieval practices were retrospectively reviewed to identify patients who underwent IVC filter retrieval in the setting of filter strut penetration into the adjacent aorta or iliac artery. Patient demographics, implant duration, indication for placement, IVC filter type, retrieval technique and technical success, adverse events, and post procedural clinical outcomes were identified. Arterial penetration was determined based on pre-procedure CT imaging in all cases. The IVC filter retrieval technique used was at the discretion of the operating physician. Seventeen patients from six US centers who underwent retrieval of an IVC filter with at least one strut penetrating either the aorta or iliac artery were identified. Retrieval technical success rate was 100% (17/17), without any major adverse events. Post-retrieval follow-up ranging from 10 days to 2 years (mean 4.6 months) was available in 12/17 (71%) patients; no delayed adverse events were encountered. Findings from this series suggest that chronically indwelling IVC filters with aorto-iliac arterial strut penetration may be safely retrieved.

Design and Manufacture of Structurally Efficient Tapered Struts

Science.gov (United States)

Brewster, Jebediah W.

2009-01-01

Composite materials offer the potential of weight savings for numerous spacecraft and aircraft applications. A composite strut is just one integral part of the node-to-node system and the optimization of the shut and node assembly is needed to take full advantage of the benefit of composites materials. Lockheed Martin designed and manufactured a very light weight one piece composite tapered strut that is fully representative of a full scale flight article. In addition, the team designed and built a prototype of the node and end fitting system that will effectively integrate and work with the full scale flight articles.

Insidious strut fractures in a DeBakey-Surgitool aortic valve prosthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, S M; Sethi, G K; Paulson, D M; Takaro, T

1978-04-01

Recent reports of cage wear occurring in DeBakey-Surgitool aortic valve prostheses prompted us to examine with image intensification all our patients who have had this type of prosthesis implanted. One patient, who was asymptomatic, was discovered to have a prosthesis with two fractured struts. This patient's prosthetic valve was replaced successfully with a stented porcine heterograft prosthesis. Including the valve removed from this patient, 8 DeBakey-Surgitool aortic valves with structural defects have been reported to the manufacturer. In the absence of a catastrophic event, patients with valves having fractured or worn struts may be totally asymptomatic, and routine periodic roentgenographic examination may be the only way of detecting strut wear or fracture.

Strut fracture in a Bjork-Shiley aortic valve prosthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lifschultz, B D; Donoghue, E R

1985-10-01

Strut fracture can be a life-threatening adverse effect of mechanical prosthetic heart valves. This complication has occurred in the DeBakey, the Beall, the Cooley-Cutter and, most recently, the Bjork-Shiley valves. We report the case of a 35-year-old man who died suddenly 16 months after a 60 degree Bjork-Shiley Convexo-Concave heart valve prosthesis was inserted in the aortic position. At autopsy, the two welded attachments of the valve's outlet strut had fractured. The valve's tilting disc was found in his abdominal aorta.

Simulating an oil shock with sticky prices. [Monograph

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giavazzi, F; Odekon, M; Wyplosz, C

1981-01-01

The authors extend recent work by J. Sachs on the response of a two-country-plus-OPEC neo-classical model to an oil shock with full inter-temporal optimization and perfect foresight. The role of imperfectly flexible prices is studied under the assumption that firms are constrained in output. The presence of expected inflation is shown to be pervasive. It affects the real interest-rate term structure and the valuation of all components of wealth, as well as the exchange rate and the attending distribution of world expenditures. Inflation also enters the wage-adjustment mechanism and, therefore, the path of unemployment and capital accumulation. 23 references, 3 figures, 7 tables.

[Strut fracture of a convex-concave 60 degree Björk-Shiley mitral valve prosthesis 5 years after implantation--metallurgic analysis of the prosthesis strut].

Science.gov (United States)

Lemke, B; Rathmann, J; Wiebe, V; Witzel, U

1991-08-01

Acute mechanical failure of prosthetic heart valves is rare, but associated with high mortality when occurring. For convexo-concave Björk-Shiley prostheses only fractures of the outlet strut are reported. We present a case of lethal mechanical complication 5 years after implantation. By additional metallurgic analysis we were able to identify a sequential course of the outlet strut fracture. This could lead to new approaches for early detection of this complication.

Fuel/Air Mixing Characteristics of Strut Injections for Scramjet Combustor Applications (Postprint)

Science.gov (United States)

2008-08-01

regions, and drag will be increased, as suggested by Povinelli .26 Both the total pressure recovery and mixing efficiency for the forward-swept strut are...Experimental Study of Cavity-Strut Combustion in Supersonic Flow,” AIAA Paper 2007-5394, 2007. 26. Povinelli , L.A., “Aerodynamic Drag and Fuel Spreading

Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Weiqi; Wu, Libo; Zhang, ZhongXiang

2010-01-01

A considerable body of economic literature shows the adverse economic impacts of oil-price shocks for the developed economies. However, there has been a lack of similar empirical study on China and other developing countries. This paper attempts to fill this gap by answering how and to what extent oil-price shocks impact China's economy, emphasizing on the price transmission mechanisms. To that end, we develop a structural vector auto-regressive model. Our results show that an oil-price increase negatively affects output and investment, but positively affects inflation rate and interest rate. However, with price control policies in China, the impact on real economy, represented by real output and real investment, lasts much longer than that to price/monetary variables. Our decomposition results also show that the short-term impact, namely output decrease induced by the cut in capacity-utilization rate, is greater in the first 6 periods (namely half a year), but the portion of the long-term impact, defined as the impact realized through an investment change, increases steadily and exceeds that of short-term impact in the 7th period. Afterwards, the long-term impact dominates, and maintains for quite some time. (author)

Shock Hugoniot and equations of states of water, castor oil, and aqueous solutions of sodium chloride, sucrose and gelatin

Science.gov (United States)

Gojani, A. B.; Ohtani, K.; Takayama, K.; Hosseini, S. H. R.

2016-01-01

This paper reports a result of experiments for the determination of reliable shock Hugoniot curves of liquids, in particular, at relatively low pressure region, which are needed to perform precise numerical simulations of shock wave/tissue interaction prior to the development of shock wave related therapeutic devices. Underwater shock waves were generated by explosions of laser ignited 10 mg silver azide pellets, which were temporally and spatially well controlled. Measuring temporal variation of shock velocities and over-pressures in caster oil, aqueous solutions of sodium chloride, sucrose and gelatin with various concentrations, we succeeded to determine shock Hugoniot curves of these liquids and hence parameters describing Tait type equations of state.

An effective simplified model of composite compression struts for partially-restrained steel frame with reinforced concrete infill walls

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Guohua; Chuang-Sheng, Walter Yang; Gu, Qiang; DesRoches, Reginald

2018-04-01

To resolve the issue regarding inaccurate prediction of the hysteretic behavior by micro-based numerical analysis for partially-restrained (PR) steel frames with solid reinforced concrete (RC) infill walls, an innovative simplified model of composite compression struts is proposed on the basis of experimental observation on the cracking distribution, load transferring mechanism, and failure modes of RC infill walls filled in PR steel frame. The proposed composite compression struts model for the solid RC infill walls is composed of α inclined struts and main diagonal struts. The α inclined struts are used to reflect the part of the lateral force resisted by shear connectors along the frame-wall interface, while the main diagonal struts are introduced to take into account the rest of the lateral force transferred along the diagonal direction due to the complicated interaction between the steel frame and RC infill walls. This study derives appropriate formulas for the effective widths of the α inclined strut and main diagonal strut, respectively. An example of PR steel frame with RC infill walls simulating simulated by the composite inclined compression struts model is illustrated. The maximum lateral strength and the hysteresis curve shape obtained from the proposed composite strut model are in good agreement with those from the test results, and the backbone curve of a PR steel frame with RC infill walls can be predicted precisely when the inter-story drift is within 1%. This simplified model can also predict the structural stiffness and the equivalent viscous damping ratio well when the inter-story drift ratio exceeds 0.5%.

Impact of stent strut design in metallic stents and biodegradable scaffolds.

Science.gov (United States)

Foin, Nicolas; Lee, Renick D; Torii, Ryo; Guitierrez-Chico, Juan Luis; Mattesini, Alessio; Nijjer, Sukhjinder; Sen, Sayan; Petraco, Ricardo; Davies, Justin E; Di Mario, Carlo; Joner, Michael; Virmani, Renu; Wong, Philip

2014-12-20

Advances in the understanding of healing mechanisms after stent implantation have led to the recognition of stent strut thickness as an essential factor affecting re-endothelialization and overall long term vessel healing response after Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCI). Emergence of Drug-eluting stents (DESs) with anti-proliferative coating has contributed to reducing the incidence of restenosis and Target Lesion Revascularization (TVR), while progress and innovations in stent materials have in the meantime facilitated the design of newer platforms with more conformability and thinner struts, producing lesser injury and improving integration into the vessel wall. Recent advances in biodegradable metal and polymer materials now also allow for the design of fully biodegradable platforms, which are aimed at scaffolding the vessel only temporarily to prevent recoil and constrictive remodeling of the vessel during the initial period required, and are then progressively resorbed thereby avoiding the drawback of leaving an unnecessary implant permanently in the vessel. The aim of this article is to review recent evolution in stent material and stent strut design while understanding their impact on PCI outcomes. The article describes the different metallic alloys and biodegradable material properties and how these have impacted the evolution of stent strut thickness and ultimately outcomes in patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Beam Shear Design According to Eurocode 2 - Limitations for the Concrete Strut Inclinations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hagsten, Lars German; Hestbech, Lars; Fisker, Jakob

2011-01-01

and are presented. These beams are all designed to fail in shear and the shear reinforcement is designed for different values of the concrete strut inclinations (cot θ varies from 1.5 to 3.4). These tests indicate a clear connection between the values of the concrete strut inclinations and crack width in the SLS......The beam shear design method adopted in Eurocode 2 is based on a lower bound plastic solution. This method is combined with limitations on the concrete strut inclination, θ. These limitations are introduced to ensure acceptable crack width in the SLS. 7 full scale beams have been tested....... In cases where larger crack widths (w > 0.4 mm) can be accepted, larger values of the concrete strut inclinations can be chosen. This will lead to less shear reinforcements. The results are also compared with analytical analysis based on energy methods. At the SLS the beams are expected to be cracked...

Outlet strut fracture and leaflet escape of Bjork-Shiley convexo-concave valve.

Science.gov (United States)

Uchino, Gaku; Yoshida, Hideo; Sakoda, Naoya; Hattori, Shigeru; Kawabata, Takuya; Saiki, Munehiro; Fujita, Yasufumi; Yunoki, Keiji; Hisamochi, Kunikazu; Mine, Yoshinari

2017-06-01

Prosthetic valve fracture is a serious complication and may arise in patient post-valve replacement. We experienced an outlet strut fracture and leaflet escape of a Bjork-Shiley convexo-concave valve. We performed an emergency redo mitral valve replacement and successfully retrieved the fractured strut and escaped leaflet from superficial femoral artery and the abdominal aorta. The patient showed an uneventful postoperative recovery.

Asymptomatic strut fracture in DeBakey-Surgitool aortic valves: incidence, management, and metallurgic aspects.

Science.gov (United States)

Von Der Emde J, J; Eberlein, U; Breme J, J

1990-01-01

From August 1971 through November 1972, we implanted 62 Model 2 DeBakey-Surgitool aortic valve prostheses in 62 patients, 4 of whom later had clinically asymptomatic strut fractures. In 1 case, the patient died suddenly, and autopsy revealed detachment of the ball-cage; in each of the other 3 cases, fractures of 2 struts close to the base of the prosthesis were diagnosed fluoroscopically, and the patients underwent successful reoperation. The interval between implantation and reoperation ranged from 11 months to 16 years, 9 months. In 1 patient, retrospective study of chest radiographs revealed that the fracture had been present for 2(1/2) years. Larger valves (>/= A6) were affected significantly more often than smaller ones. We performed metallurgic analysis of 1 prosthesis: results revealed strut wear from fatigue cracking and secondary abrasion. Strut fracture was also promoted by suspension of the cage at right angles to the prosthetic ring and by use of a pyrolytic carbon ball in a titanium cage (i.e., an occluder harder than its holder). Patients with DeBakey-Surgitool aortic valve prostheses should undergo annual radiologic examinations to enable early detection of strut fractures. Prophylactic valve replacement is not indicated.

Three essays on monetary policy responses to oil price shocks

Science.gov (United States)

Plante, Michael

This dissertation contains three chapters which explore the question of how monetary policy should respond to changes in the price of oil. Each chapter explores the question from the perspective of a different economic environment. The first chapter examines welfare maximizing optimal monetary policy in a closed economy New Keynesian model that is extended to include household and firm demand for oil products, sticky wages, and capital accumulation. When households and firms demand oil products a natural difference arises between the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the core CPI, and the GDP deflator. I show that when nominal wages are flexible then the optimal policy places a heavy emphasis on stabilizing the inflation rate of the core CPI. If aggregate nominal wages are sticky then the central bank should focus on stabilizing some combination of core inflation and nominal wage inflation. Under no case examined is it optimal to stabilize either GDP deflator or CPI inflation. The second chapter examines monetary policy responses to oil price shocks in a small open economy with traded and non-traded goods. Oil and labor are used to produce the traded and non-traded goods and prices are sticky in the non-traded sector. I show analytically that the ratio of the oil and labor cost shares in the traded and non-traded sectors is crucial for determining the dynamic behavior of many macroeconomic variables after a rise in the price of oil. A policy of fixed exchange rates can produce higher or lower inflation in the non-traded sector depending upon the ratio. Likewise, a policy that stabilizes the inflation rate of prices in the non-traded sector can cause the nominal exchange rate to appreciate or depreciate. For the proper calibration, a policy that stabilizes core inflation produces results very close to the one that stabilizes non-traded inflation. Analytical results show that the fixed exchange rate always produces a unique solution. The policy of stabilizing non

Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts. Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jammazi, Rania; Aloui, Chaker [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

2010-03-15

While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes. (author)

Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jammazi, Rania, E-mail: jamrania2@yahoo.f [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia); Aloui, Chaker, E-mail: chaker.aloui@fsegt.rnu.t [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

2010-03-15

While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes.

Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jammazi, Rania; Aloui, Chaker

2010-01-01

While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes.

Strut fracture of Björk-Shiley convexo-concave valve in Japan--risk of small valve size--.

Science.gov (United States)

Watarida, S; Shiraishi, S; Nishi, T; Imura, M; Yamamoto, Y; Hirokawa, R; Fujita, M

2001-08-01

The Björk-Shiley convexo-concave (BSCC) prosthetic valve was introduced in 1979. Between 1979 and 1986, approximately 86,000 BSCC valves were implanted. By December 31, 1994, 564 complete strut fractures had been reported to the manufacture. We experienced a case of an outlet strut fracture and investigated the risk of BSCC prosthetic valve fractures in Japan. To investigate the risk factor of a strut fracture in Japan, we investigated published cases of strut fractures. Between 1979 and 1986, 2021 BSCC valves were implanted in Japan. By January 31, 2000, 11 complete strut fractures of 60-degree BSCC valves including our case had occurred. The patients were eight males and three females. The average age at valve replacement was 42.4+/-8.1 years, and nine of eleven (81.8%) were patients valve fractured was 47.7+/-6.4 years, and eight of eleven (72.7%) were patients valve were 27 mm (n=5) (45.5%), 29 mm (n=3) (27.2%), and 31 mm (n=3) (27.2%). Four patients died and seven patients survived. Although only 11 BSCC valve struts fractured and statistical analysis could not be performed, our findings suggest that the high risk group for a strut fracture in Japan is young male patients with a mitral valve, >= 27 mm in size with BSCC models manufactured before March 1982. When following-up patients with BSCC models manufactured before March 1982, the possibility of a strut fracture in all BSCC valve sizes should be kept in mind.

基于 Struts 框架的软件实训系统%Software Training System Based on Struts Architecture

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

龚雄兴; 宁彬; 袁磊

2012-01-01

　　基于Struts框架的软件实训系统主要是利用Web技术实现软件实训实践过程的网络化、信息化。文章分析了以 Struts 框架为技术基础的软件实训系统的设计与实现，改进了该系统应用及维护中的安全控制和中文请求响应设计，以更符合建设软件实训系统的现实需求。%　　Software training system mainly uses Web technique to realize cyberization and informatization of teaching process on software training. Based on Struts architecture, it analyzes the design and realization of the software training system. Then safety control and response to Chinese language during the application are improved.

Study on durability and reliability of strut type suspension noise based on experimental methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Gu Gyong; Kang, Sung Su; Lee, Yong Jun; Park, Soon Cheol; Jung, Won Wook

2012-01-01

When cars are released from the factory, strut noises are very small and therefore it is difficult to perceive them. As the use time and travel distance increase, however, strut noises get larger so as to cause users much uneasiness. The noises generated at the field include engine noises and flow noises and therefore it is difficult to clearly discern the noises generated from struts. This study developed a test method which can reproduce field strut noises in the lab. Using the newly developed noise evaluation test, this study analyzed the effects that insulator performance degradation and failure can have on car noises. The study also confirmed that the insulator durability test by the simple back-and-forth motion cannot completely reflect the state of the parts failure in the field. Based on this, the study also confirmed that field noises can be reproduced through a durability test that considers heat aging

Oil Shocks through International Transport Costs: Evidence from U.S. Business Cycles

OpenAIRE

Hakan Yilmazkuday

2011-01-01

The effects of oil shocks on output volatility through international transport costs are investigated in an open-economy DSGE model. Two versions of the model, with and without international transport costs, are structurally estimated for the U.S. economy by a Bayesian approach for moving windows of ten years. For model selection, the posterior odds ratios of the two versions are compared for each ten-year window. The version with international transport costs is selected during periods of hi...

The asymmetric relationship between oil revenues and economic activities: The case of oil-exporting countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mehrara, Mohsen

2008-01-01

This paper examines the nonlinear or asymmetric relationship between oil revenues and output growth in oil-exporting countries, applying a dynamic panel framework and two different measures of oil shocks. The main results in this paper confirm the stylized facts that in heavily oil-dependent countries lacking the institutional mechanisms de-linking fiscal expenditure from current revenue, oil revenue shocks tend to affect the output in asymmetric and nonlinear ways. The findings suggest that output growth is adversely affected by the negative oil shocks, while oil booms or the positive oil shocks play a limited role in stimulating economic growth. The findings have practical policy implications for decision makers in the area of macroeconomic planning. The use of stabilization and savings funds and diversification of the real sector seems crucial to minimize the harmful effects of oil booms and busts

Optical coherence tomography at follow-up after percutaneous coronary intervention: relationship between procedural dissections, stent strut malapposition and stent healing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Radu, Maria; Jørgensen, Erik; Kelbæk, Henning

2011-01-01

To analyse the relationship between strut apposition as visualised with optical coherence tomography (OCT) at follow-up and clinical and procedural characteristics at stent implantation, and to examine the relationship between strut apposition and stent healing.......To analyse the relationship between strut apposition as visualised with optical coherence tomography (OCT) at follow-up and clinical and procedural characteristics at stent implantation, and to examine the relationship between strut apposition and stent healing....

Bi-directional evolutionary structural optimization for strut-and-tie modelling of three-dimensional structural concrete

Science.gov (United States)

Shobeiri, Vahid; Ahmadi-Nedushan, Behrouz

2017-12-01

This article presents a method for the automatic generation of optimal strut-and-tie models in reinforced concrete structures using a bi-directional evolutionary structural optimization method. The methodology presented is developed for compliance minimization relying on the Abaqus finite element software package. The proposed approach deals with the generation of truss-like designs in a three-dimensional environment, addressing the design of corbels and joints as well as bridge piers and pile caps. Several three-dimensional examples are provided to show the capabilities of the proposed framework in finding optimal strut-and-tie models in reinforced concrete structures and verifying its efficiency to cope with torsional actions. Several issues relating to the use of the topology optimization for strut-and-tie modelling of structural concrete, such as chequerboard patterns, mesh-dependency and multiple load cases, are studied. In the last example, a design procedure for detailing and dimensioning of the strut-and-tie models is given according to the American Concrete Institute (ACI) 318-08 provisions.

Outlet strut fracture of Björk-Shiley convexo-concave valves: can valve-manufacturing characteristics explain the risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Omar, R Z; Morton, L S; Beirne, M; Blot, W J; Lawford, P V; Hose, R; Taylor, K M

2001-06-01

Björk-Shiley 60 degrees convexo-concave prosthetic heart valves (Shiley, Inc, Irvine, Calif, a subsidiary of Pfizer, Inc) continue to be a concern for approximately 35,000 nonexplanted patients worldwide, with approximately 600 events reported to the manufacturer to date. Fractures of the outlet struts of the valves began to appear in the early 1980s and have continued to the present, but their causes are only partially understood. A matched case-control study was conducted evaluating manufacturing records for 52 valves with outlet strut fractures and 248 control subjects matched for age at implantation, valve size, and valve position. In addition to the risk factors recognized as determinants of outlet strut fracture, the United Kingdom case-control study has observed 7- to 9-fold increased risk with performance of multiple hook deflection tests. This test was performed more than once, usually after rework on the valve. Six valves in this study underwent multiple hook deflection tests, of which 4 experienced an outlet strut fracture. Cracks and further rework were noted for these valves. Significant associations were also observed between outlet strut fracture and disc-to-strut gap measurements taken before the attachment of the sewing ring. It is our view that a combination of factors related to valve design, manufacturing process, and patient characteristics are responsible for outlet strut fractures of Björk-Shiley convexo-concave valves. Multiple hook deflection tests have emerged as a potential new risk factor for outlet strut fracture in both The Netherlands and the United Kingdom. This factor appears to be correlated with the presence of other abnormalities. A further study is needed to investigate the factors correlated with multiple hook deflection tests. On confirmation of risk, the presence of multiple hook deflection tests may be added to equations, quantifying the risk of outlet strut fracture for comparison against risk of mortality and serious

Iranian-Oil-Free Zone and international oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza; Raeisian Parvari, Mozhgan

2014-01-01

One of the main elements of economic sanctions against Iran due to its nuclear and military programs is crude oil exportation restrictions in addition to investment in Iranian energy related projects. Senders of such sanction are interested in understanding the impacts of such embargos on international oil prices. We apply unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model, using impulse response functions (IRF) and variance decomposition analysis (VDA) tools with annual data from 1965 to 2012 to analyze the dynamic response of international oil prices to Iranian oil export sanction. Controlling for the supply of non-Iranian oil, the world GDP per capita, and post-Islamic revolution exogenous dummy variables, we show that international oil prices respond negatively and statistically significant to increasing shock in absolute negative changes of the Iranian oil exports – our proxy of Iran oil sanctions – following the first 2 years after shock. The main reason is the positive response of the non-Iranian oil supply to negative shocks in Iranian oil exports, filling the missing supply of Iranian oil in international markets. - Highlights: • We analyze the interconnections between Iranian oil supply and global oil prices. • We use VAR modeling and annual data from 1965 to 2012 for the case of Iran. • There are no inflationary effects of Iranian oil sanction on world oil prices. • Non-Iranian oil supply offsets the missing Iranian oil in the market

Investigations on the Influence of the In-Stream Pylon and Strut on the Performance of a Scramjet Combustor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hao Ouyang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The influence of the in-stream pylon and strut on the performance of scramjet combustor was experimentally and numerically investigated. The experiments were conducted with a direct-connect supersonic model combustor equipped with multiple cavities. The entrance parameter of combustor corresponds to scramjet flight Mach number 4.0 with a total temperature of 947 K. The research results show that, compared with the scramjet combustor without pylon and strut, the wall pressure and the thrust of the scramjet increase due to the improvement of mixing and combustion effect due to the pylon and strut. The total pressure loss caused by the strut is considerable whereas pylon influence is slight.

Disequilibrium macro model and catastrophe theory: the case of an oil shock

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

German, I.

1983-01-01

This study builds a simple disequilibrium macromodel of a small open economy that imports oil from an exogenous unit. The model is motivated by very slow adjustment of prices and wages to disequilibrium. Output on the other hand adjusts to its final level instantaneously. A rationing scheme is specified that explicitly takes into account the spillover effects and differentiates between notional, effective, and actual quantities. In a Solow-Stiglitz (1968) setting, a dynamic model is developed in which the dynamic forces depend on the economic environment specified by the Malinvandian regimes: Classical Unemployment, Keynesian Unemployment, Repressed Inflation, and the Walrasian Equilibrium. Given that dynamic system, the author seeks to identify the stationary points of the system (quasi-equilibria) and to find their stability properties. To the disequilibrium model an oil shock is introduced and its effects on employment, real output, real wage, and the stationary points of the system are investigated. A one-time increase (decrease) in the real price of oil and a continuous increase (decrease) in the real price of oil are considered. The path the economy takes and, in particular, the continuous and discontinuous behavior of the quasi-equilibria are investigated. Finally, the model government policy is incorporated and different policy alternatives are studied.

Tail dependence between oil and stocks of major oil-exporting countries using the CoVaR approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nader Trabelsi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the negative tail risk dependence between oil shocks and stock indices (at aggregated and desegregated levels for Saudi Arabia (KSA, United Arab Emirates (UAE and Russia, over the period between 2007 and 2016. DCC-MGARCH approach and CoVaR measure are employed to assess the oil shock exposure. The results show that the tail dependence is significant and depends on the origin of the oil shocks, with intensity that varies across countries and sectors. Keywords: Oil price shocks, Oil-exporting countries, Conditional VaR, JEL Classification: C58, G11, Q4

Essays on oil and the macroeconomy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melolinna, M.

2012-07-01

This dissertation studies the effects of crude oil on the macroeconomy using a vector autoregression (VAR) modelling framework. In particular, the importance of identifying different types of oil shocks is explored for both small and large open economies. A VAR model is also used to study the information content of oil futures contracts. The dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay of the dissertation introduces a methodology for identifying oil supply shocks in a small open economy. Financial market information is used to construct an identification scheme that forces the response to an oil shock of the VAR model to be the same as that implied by futures markets. Due to the identification scheme, the model is only partially identified, and confidence intervals for impulse responses are calculated by using a bootstrapping procedure. The methodology is applied in illustrative examples to two small open economies in a VAR model that includes key domestic and international macroeconomic variables. The results suggest that while oil supply shocks have had an effect on domestic inflation during recent past, the effect on domestic GDP is ambiguous. The second essay of the dissertation studies the existence of risk premiums in crude oil futures prices with simple ordinary least squares regression and Bayesian VAR models. It also studies the importance of three main theoretical risk premium models in explaining and forecasting the risk premiums in practice. Whilst the existence of the premiums and the validity of the models can be established at certain time points, it turns out that the choice of sample period has a considerable effect on the results. Hence, the risk premiums are highly time-varying. The study also establishes a model, based on speculative positions in the futures markets, which has some predictive power for future oil spot prices. The third essay of the dissertation explores oil market and other macroeconomic shocks in a structural VAR

Crude oil price shocks and stock returns. Evidence from Turkish stock market under global liquidity conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berk, Istemi [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Aydogan, Berna [Izmir Univ. of Economics (Turkey). Dept. of International Trade and Finance

2012-09-15

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (V AR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE- 1 00) returns for the period between January 2, 1990 and November 1, 2011. We have also tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange's (CBOE) S and P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance decomposition test results suggest little empirical evidence that crude oil price shocks have been rationally evaluated in the Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of variation in stock market returns.

On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jebabli, Ikram; Arouri, Mohamed; Teulon, Frédéric

2014-01-01

Transmission of price shocks from one market to another one has long been investigated in the economic literature. However, studies have namely dealt with the relationship between financial and energy markets. With the recent changes in market conditions, investors, policy-makers and interest groups are giving special attention to food market. This paper aims at analyzing shock transmission between international food, energy and financial markets and to provide some insights into the volatility behavior during the past years and discuss its implications for portfolio management. To do this, we present a new time varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility approach which provides extreme flexibility with a parsimonious specification. We resort also to a generalized vector autoregressive framework in which forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to the variable ordering for the assessment of total and directional volatility spillovers. Our main findings suggest that volatility spillovers increase considerably during crisis and, namely after mid-2008, when stock markets become net transmitter of volatility shocks while crude oil becomes a net receiver. Shocks to crude oil or MSCI markets have immediate and short-term impacts on food markets which are emphasized during the financial crisis period. Moreover, we show that augmenting a diversified portfolio of food commodities with crude oil or stocks significantly increases its risk-adjusted performance. - Highlights: • We study shock transmission between food, energy and financial markets. • We use a new time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility. • There is volatility spillover from oil and stock markets to food. • Volatility spillovers increase considerably during crisis, namely after mid-2008. • Augmenting a portfolio of foods with oil or stocks increases its performance

Anatomical variations and morphometric study of the optic strut and the anterior clinoid process

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Eldan Kapur

2012-05-01

Full Text Available The optic strut and the anterior clinoid process represent bony structures that are closely related to anatomically and clinically significant elements such as the cavernous sinus, the internal carotid artery, the optic nerve and the pituitary gland. The objective of our study was to quantify dimensions of the optic strut and anterior clinoid process, and to determine variations in positions and forms of these structures. A descriptive anatomical study was performed on 200 dry human skulls. We analyzed dimensions and variations in position of the optic strut, dimensions of the anterior clinoid process as well as the incidence and forms of the caroticoclinoid foramen. The average thickness of the optic strut on skulls belonging to males was 3 mm and 2.8 mm on those belonging to females. The optic strut was most commonly attached to the anterior two fifths on the lower side of the anterior clinoid process. On the male skulls the average width of the anterior clinoid process was 9.4 mm (right and 9.1 mm (left. Its length was 9.9 and 9.3 mm. On female skulls the average width of the process was 8.7 mm (right and 8.3 mm (left, while the length measured 9.3 mm on the right and 8.9 mm on the opposite side. In our sample, a complete caroticoclinoid foramen appeared in 4.25%, a contact form in 2.75%. At last, an incomplete form of the foramen was observed in 9.75%. The anatomic variations of the investigated structures must be considered during the approaches to the cavernous sinus and neurovascular elements of the sellar region.

Excessive strut wear allowing ball-poppet embolization in a DeBakey-Surgitool aortic valve prosthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sutherland, R D; Guynes, W A; Nichols, C T; Martinez, H E

1982-01-01

Excessive cage strut wear allowing ball-poppet embolization caused the sudden death of a 47 year old lady in whom a DeBakey-Surgitool aortic prosthesis had been implanted nine years earlier. Patients with this type of prosthesis should have periodic valvular cine fluoroscopy with image intensification to allow visualization of significant strut wear or fracture, and appropriate prosthetic valve replacement.

Long range node-strut analysis of trabecular bone microarchitecture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmah, Tanya; Marwan, Norbert; Thomsen, Jesper Skovhus

2011-01-01

PURPOSE: We present a new morphometric measure of trabecular bone microarchitecture, called mean node strength (NdStr), which is part of a newly developed approach called long range node-strut analysis. Our general aim is to describe and quantify the apparent "latticelike" microarchitecture of th...

Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korhonen, Iikka; Ledyaeva, Svetlana

2010-01-01

In this paper we assess the impact of oil price shocks on oil-producer and oil-consuming economies. VAR models for different countries are linked together via a trade matrix, as in Abeysinghe (2001). As expected, we find that oil producers (here, Russia and Canada) benefit from oil price shocks. For example, a large oil shock leading to a price increase of 50% boosts Russian GDP by about 6%. However, oil producers are hurt by indirect effects of positive oil price shocks, as economic activity in their exporter countries suffers. For oil consumers, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while other countries seem to be relatively immune to oil price changes. Finally, indirect effects are also detected for oil-consumer countries. Those countries, which trade more with oil producers, gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producing countries. In general, the largest negative total effects from positive oil price shocks are found for Japan, China, the USA, Finland and Switzerland, while other countries in our sample seem to have fared quite well during recent positive oil price shocks. The indirect effects are negative for Russia, Finland, Germany and Netherlands. (author)

Asymptomatic Strut Fracture in DeBakey-Surgitool Aortic Valves: Incidence, Management, and Metallurgic Aspects

OpenAIRE

Von Der Emde, Jürgen; Eberlein, Ulrich; Breme, Jürgen

1990-01-01

From August 1971 through November 1972, we implanted 62 Model 2 DeBakey-Surgitool aortic valve prostheses in 62 patients, 4 of whom later had clinically asymptomatic strut fractures. In 1 case, the patient died suddenly, and autopsy revealed detachment of the ball-cage; in each of the other 3 cases, fractures of 2 struts close to the base of the prosthesis were diagnosed fluoroscopically, and the patients underwent successful reoperation. The interval between implantation and reoperation rang...

Anterior debridement and fusion followed by posterior pedicle screw fixation in pyogenic spondylodiscitis: autologous iliac bone strut versus cage.

Science.gov (United States)

Pee, Yong Hun; Park, Jong Dae; Choi, Young-Geun; Lee, Sang-Ho

2008-05-01

An anterior approach for debridement and fusion with autologous bone graft has been recommended as the gold standard for surgical treatment of pyogenic spondylodiscitis. The use of anterior foreign body implants at the site of active infection is still a challenging procedure for spine surgeons. Several authors have recently introduced anterior grafting with titanium mesh cages instead of autologous bone strut in the treatment of spondylodiscitis. The authors present their experience of anterior fusion with 3 types of cages followed by posterior pedicle screw fixation. They also compare their results with the use of autologous iliac bone strut. The authors retrospectively reviewed the cases of 60 patients with pyogenic spondylodiscitis treated by anterior debridement between January 2003 and April 2005. Fusion using either cages or iliac bone struts was performed during the same course of anesthesia followed by posterior fixation. Twenty-three patients underwent fusion with autologous iliac bone strut, and 37 patients underwent fusion with 1 of the 3 types of cages. The infections resolved in all patients, as noted by normalization of their erythrocyte sedimentation rates and C-reactive protein levels. Patients in both groups were evaluated in terms of their preoperative and postoperative clinical and imaging findings. Single-stage anterior debridement and cage fusion followed by posterior pedicle screw fixation can be effective in the treatment of pyogenic spondylodiscitis. There was no difference in clinical and imaging outcomes between the strut group and cage group except for the subsidence rate. The subsidence rate was higher in the strut group than in the cage group. The duration until subsidence was also shorter in the strut group than in the cage group.

Delayed coverage in malapposed and side-branch struts with respect to well-apposed struts in drug-eluting stents: In vivo assessment with optical coherence tomography

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.L. Gutiérrez-Chico; E.S. Regar (Eveline); E. NüesC.H. (Eveline); T. Okamura (Takayuki); J.J. Wykrzykowska (Joanna); C. di Mario (Carlo); S.W. Windecker (Stephan); G.A. van Es (Gerrit Anne); P. Gobbens (Pierre); P. Jüni (Peter); P.W.J.C. Serruys (Patrick)

2011-01-01

textabstractBackground-Pathology studies on fatal cases of very late stent thrombosis have described incomplete neointimal coverage as common substrate, in some cases appearing at side-branch struts. Intravascular ultrasound studies have described the association between incomplete stent apposition

Waiting for the energy crisis: Europe and the United States on the eve of the first oil shock

OpenAIRE

Madureira, Nuno Luis

2014-01-01

WOS:000343528000004 (Nº de Acesso Web of Science) A global economic crisis is the most difficult kind of event to predict. This article asks a straightforward question: did anyone come close to anticipating the oil crisis of 1973/74, which represented a new type of historical sequence? Was the likelihood of an oil shock self-evident at the time? To answer this, I examine the degree of awareness in Europe and the United States of the three possible triggering factors: Egypt’s disposition to...

A fractured inferior vena cava filter strut migrating to the left pulmonary artery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tamer Hudali

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Inferior vena cava filters are increasingly used in patients with recurrent venous thromboembolism who are contraindicated to anticoagulation. Migration of a broken strut to the pulmonary artery is a very rare complication of these filters. We report the case of an 83-year-old female who experienced this complication with the migratory strut remaining in the same position for years. This case provides evidence that such filters probably have higher rates of complications than what has been thought that remain asymptomatic. The indications and the management of complications of such devices need to be studied further.

The macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on a small open oil-producing country. The case of Trinidad and Tobago

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lorde, Troy; Thomas, Chrystol; Jackman, Mahalia

2009-01-01

Using vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology, this paper empirically investigates the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on Trinidad and Tobago. Overall, we find that the price of oil is a major determinant of economic activity of the country. Our impulse response functions suggest that following a positive oil price shock, output falls within the first two years followed by positive and growing response. We also investigate the macroeconomic impact of oil price volatility. Results suggest that an unanticipated shock to oil price volatility brings about random swings in the macroeconomy; however, only government revenue and the price level exhibit significant responses. With regard to the magnitude of the responses, shocks to oil price volatility tend to yield smaller macroeconomic impacts in comparison to shocks to oil prices. Variance decompositions suggest that the price of oil is a major component of forecast variation for most macroeconomic variables. Finally, Granger-causality tests indicate causality from oil prices to output and oil prices to government revenue. (author)

Biological effect of microengineered grooved stents on strut healing: a randomised OCT-based comparative study in humans

Science.gov (United States)

Vesga, Boris; Hernandez, Hector; Higuera, Sergio; Gasior, Pawel; Echeveri, Dario; Delgado, Juan A; Dager, Antonio; Arana, Camilo; Simonton, Charles; Maehara, Akiko; Palmaz, Julio; Granada, Juan F

2017-01-01

Objective To evaluate the biological effect of microengineered stent grooves (MSG) on early strut healing in humans by performing optical coherence tomography (OCT) analysis 3 weeks following the implantation. Background In the experimental setting, MSG accelerate endothelial cell migration and reduce neointimal proliferation compared with bare metal stent (BMS). Methods A total of 37 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention with de novo coronary lesions were randomly assigned to either MSG (n=19) or an identical BMS controls (n=18). All patients underwent OCT imaging at 3 weeks. A total of 7959 struts were included in the final analysis. Results At 3 weeks following stent implantation, almost all struts analysed (~97%) had evidence of tissue coverage. The percentage of partially covered struts was comparable between both groups. However, the percentage of fully embedded struts was higher in the BMS group (81.22%, 49.75–95.52) compared with the MSG group (74.21%, 58.85–86.38). The stent-level analysis demonstrated reduction in neointimal formation (neointimal hyperplasia area and volume reduction of ~14% and ~19%, respectively) in the MSG versus the BMS group. In the strut-level analysis, an even greater reduction (~22% in neointimal thickness) was seen in the MSG group. Layered neointimal was present in ~6% of the OCT frames in the BMS group while it was not present in the MSG group. Conclusions MSG induced a more homogeneous and predictable pattern of surface healing in the early stages following stent implantation. The biological effect of MSG on stent healing has the potential to improve the safety profile of current generation drug-eluting stents. Classifications BMS, OCT, clinical trials. PMID:28674616

STRESS-DEFORMED STATE OF A STRUT-FRAMED CRANE GIRDER

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Kh. M. Muselemov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. The aim of the present work is to study the influence of design parameters on the stress-deformed state of a sprengel crane girder; to compile the tables and corresponding graphs illustrating changes in internal force factors in the characteristic cross-sections of the system elements under consideration. The article describes the study of the stress-deformed state (SDS of a metal strut-framed crane girder.Methods. Numerical methods of analysis based on the use of the Green's function are used during solving this problem. A dimensionless parameter is introduced, depending on which the tables and graphs are constructed. According to the known algorithm, the calculations of internal force factors in the sections of the considered construction are performed.Results. Depending on the dimensionless parameter characterising the geometry and physical features of the system, tables of bending moments and transverse forces are compiled. According to these tables, the appropriate graphs are plotted in order to choose easily the optimal design parameters.Conclusion. The dependence of the moments and transverse forces on the dimensionless parameter k was found, the corresponding graphs were plotted and the metal costs for the girders were calculated. The minimum values of the moments and transverse forces are established to take place when the dimensionless parameter k values are close to zero. The most economical was a strut-framed crane girder having k = 0.0001. The most uneconomical had k = 0.05 and k =∞. Eventually, the sprengel girders were found to be more profitable as compared to conventional crane girders. In the examples considered in the article, the metal savings amounted up to 14%. The presented methodology allows the calculation and designing of strut-framed crane girders with two racks to be carried out. 

Suggesting alternatives for reinforced concrete deep beams by reinforcing struts and ties

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Saleem Abdul-Razzaq Khattab

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studied reinforcing struts and ties in deep beams based on the Strut-and-Tie Model (STM of ACI 318M-14. The study contained testing 9 simply supported specimens, divided into 3 groups. The difference between the groups was the loading type which was 2-concentrated forces, 1-concentrated force and uniformly distributed load. Each group contained three specimens; the first specimens in each group were conventional deep beams as references which had a length of 1400 mm, a height of 400 mm and a width of 150 mm. The second specimens were the same as references in dimensions, but with removing shoulders. In addition, only the paths of struts & ties of STM were reinforced in the second specimens as compression and tension members, respectively. The third specimens were the frames that took their dimensions from STM of ACI 318M-14. From the experimental work, it is found that the proposed frames were good alternatives for the references despite the small loss in ultimate capacity. However, these proposed frames already carried loads greater than the factored design loads of STM. In comparison with the references, these proposed frames provided 41-51% reduction in weight, 4-27% reduction in cost besides providing front side area about 46-55%.

The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour A regime switching approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania [International Finance Group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

2009-09-15

In this paper we develop a two regime Markov-switching EGARCH model introduced by Henry [Henry, O., 2009. Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates. Journal of Banking and Finance 33, 405-414.] to examine the relationship between crude oil shocks and stock markets. An application to stock markets of UK, France and Japan over the sample period January 1989 to December 2007 illustrates plausible results. We detect two episodes of series behaviour one relative to low mean/high variance regime and the other to high mean/low variance regime. Furthermore, there is evidence that common recessions coincide with the low mean/high variance regime. In addition, we allow both real stock returns and probability of transitions from one regime to another to depend on the net oil price increase variable. The findings show that rises in oil price has a significant role in determining both the volatility of stock returns and the probability of transition across regimes. (author)

The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour A regime switching approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

2009-01-01

In this paper we develop a two regime Markov-switching EGARCH model introduced by Henry [Henry, O., 2009. Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates. Journal of Banking and Finance 33, 405-414.] to examine the relationship between crude oil shocks and stock markets. An application to stock markets of UK, France and Japan over the sample period January 1989 to December 2007 illustrates plausible results. We detect two episodes of series behaviour one relative to low mean/high variance regime and the other to high mean/low variance regime. Furthermore, there is evidence that common recessions coincide with the low mean/high variance regime. In addition, we allow both real stock returns and probability of transitions from one regime to another to depend on the net oil price increase variable. The findings show that rises in oil price has a significant role in determining both the volatility of stock returns and the probability of transition across regimes. (author)

A few insights into the nature of classical and quantum gravity via null-strut calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kheyfets, Arkady

1989-01-01

Null-strut calculus is a 3 + 1 formulation of standard Regge calculus, wherein the dynamics of 3-geometry is propagated in time along light rays, or 'null struts'. However, just as Regge calculus is a discrete and geometric tool for the description of Einstein's theory of gravitation, so too NSC offers itself as a discrete and geometric tool for the description of Einstein's spacetime as the dynamics of discrete spacelike 3-geometries in time, or discrete geometrodynamics. It has for its objectives to provide a discrete model of a 3 + 1 split of spacetime into space plus time, while in so doing to preserve and illuminate the geometric content of Einstein's theory of gravity. The feature of 'light-cone-produced duality' is central to null-strut calculus. This paper will capitalise on this feature, and will attempt to provide some insights into the nature of classical and quantum gravity. (Author)

Business cycles in oil economies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Mutairi, N.H.

1991-01-01

This study examines the impact of oil price shocks on output fluctuations of several oil-exporting economies. In most studies of business cycles, the role of oil price is ignored; the few studies that use oil price as one of the variables in the system focus on modeling oil-importing economies. The vector autoregression (VAR) technique is used to consider the cases of Norway, Nigeria, and Mexico. Both atheoretical and 'structural' VARs are estimated to determine the importance of oil price impulses on output variations. The study reports two types of results: variance decomposition and impulse response functions, with particular emphasis on the issues of stationarity and co-integration among the series. The empirical results suggest that shocks to oil price are important in explaining output variations. In most cases, shocks to oil price are shown to explain more than 20% of the forecast variance of output over a 40-quarter horizon

Flow Characteristics Near to Stent Strut Configurations on Femoropopliteal Artery

Science.gov (United States)

Paisal, Muhammad Sufyan Amir; Fadhil Syed Adnan, Syed; Taib, Ishkrizat; Ismail, Al Emran; Kamil Abdullah, Mohammad; Nordin, Normayati; Seri, Suzairin Md; Darlis, Nofrizalidris

2017-08-01

Femoropopiteal artery stenting is a common procedure suggested by medical expert especially for patient who is diagnosed with severe stenosis. Many researchers reported that the growth of stenosis is significantly related to the geometry of stent strut configuration. The different shapes of stent geometry are presenting the different flow pattern and re-circulation in stented femoropopliteal artery. The blood flow characteristics near to the stent geometry are predicted for the possibility of thrombosis and atherosclerosis to be formed as well as increase the growth of stenosis. Thus, this study aims to determine the flow characteristic near to stent strut configuration based on different hemodynamic parameters. Three dimensional models of stent and simplified femoropopliteal artery are modelled using computer aided design (CAD) software. Three different models of stent shapes; hexagon, circle and rectangle are simulated using computational fluid dynamic (CFD) method. Then, parametric study is implemented to predict the performance of stent due to hemodynamic differences. The hemodynamic parameters considered are pressure, velocity, low wall shear stress (WSSlow) and wall shear stress (WSS). From the observation, flow re-circulation has been formed for all simulated stent models which the proximal region shown the severe vortices. However, rectangular shape of stent strut (Type P3) shows the lowest WSSlow and the highest WSS between the range of 4 dyne/cm2 and 70 dyne/cm2. Stent Type P3 also shows the best hemodynamic stent performance as compare to others. In conclusion, Type P3 has a favourable result in hemodynamic stent performance that predicted less probability of thrombosis and atherosclerosis to be formed as well as reduces the growth of restenosis.

OIL PRICES AND THE KUWAITI AND THE SAUDI STOCK MARKETS

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Samih Antoine Azar

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to test the impact of oil price shocks on the stock markets of the two biggest and most liquid GCC equity markets, those of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. It is expected that the two stock markets react similarly to oil price shocks. Actually the results show heterogeneity in responses. While there is prima facie evidence that both stock markets are influenced positively and linearly by oil price shocks, this evidence disappears when additional variables are added to the regressions. With the larger specification oil price shocks do not impact, neither linearly or non-linearly, Kuwaiti stock markets. By contrast Saudi markets react non-linearly to both oil price shocks and shocks in the US S&P 500. The only common feature for both equity markets is the positive relation with the shocks in the US S&P 500.

The macroeconomic effects of oil shocks under fixed and flexible exchange rates - a comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvie, C.

1993-01-01

The objective of this paper is to explore further, from a primarily theoretical perspective, the macroeconomic implications arising for an oil-producing economy operating with either a fixed or flexible exchange rate system - to explore, in particular, which of these two extreme systems best offers insulatory properties, in the sense of reducing the volatility of adjustment of key macroeconomic variables arising primarily from oil-related shocks. The issue is explored by analyzing a theoretical framework, which emphasizes the long-run nature of the adjustment process. Such an emphasis is particularly pertinent in models which assume that economic agents possess rational expectations, where long-run equilibrium will have a major bearing upon the short-run adjustment process itself. However, due to the complexity of the model developed here, it is not possible to derive analytical unambiguous results, hence emphasis is placed upon deriving results through numerical simulation. The results derived enable an identification to be made of the importance, for policy purposes, of implementing an appropriate exchange rate system for oil producing and exporting economics with the characteristics emphasised in this paper. (3 figures). (Author)

Experimental investigation on combustion performance of cavity-strut injection of supercritical kerosene in supersonic model combustor

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Ming-bo; Zhong, Zhan; Liang, Jian-han; Wang, Hong-bo

2016-10-01

Supersonic combustion with cavity-strut injection of supercritical kerosene in a model scramjet engine was experimentally investigated in Mach 2.92 facility with the stagnation temperatures of approximately 1430 K. Static pressure distribution in the axial direction was determined using pressure transducers installed along the centerline of the model combustor top walls. High speed imaging camera was used to capture flame luminosity and combustion region distribution. Multi-cavities were used to and stabilize the combustion in the supersonic combustor. Intrusive injection by thin struts was used to enhance the fuel-air mixing. Supercritical kerosene at temperatures of approximately 780 K and various pressures was prepared using a heat exchanger driven by the hot gas from a pre-burner and injected at equivalence ratios of approximately 1.0. In the experiments, combustor performances with different strut injection schemes were investigated and compared to direct wall injection scheme based on the measured static pressure distributions, the specific thrust increments and the images obtained by high-speed imaging camera. The experimental results showed that the injection by thin struts could obtain an enhanced mixing in the field but could not acquire a steady flame when mixing field cannot well match cavity separation region. There is no significant difference on performance between different schemes since the unsteady intermittent and oscillating flame leads to no actual combustion efficiency improvement.

Sectoral effects of a world oil-price shock: economy-wide linkages to the agricultural sector. Staff report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanson, K.; Robinson, S.; Schluter, G.

1991-10-01

The effects of a world oil price shock on U.S. agriculture are analyzed in an economywide environment. The authors use an input-output model to analyze the direct and indirect cost linkages between energy and other sectors of the economy. Then, to allow sectoral output adjustment and the effects on the U.S. current account, they use the U.S. Department of Agriculture/Economic Research Service Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the sectoral effects under three different macro adjustment scenarios. The effects on agriculture are not limited to the direct and indirect energy costs. Exchange rate or foreign borrowing adjustments to higher oil import costs and government support programs for agriculture also matter

A Stewart isolator with high-static-low-dynamic stiffness struts based on negative stiffness magnetic springs

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yisheng; Li, Qingpin; Yan, Bo; Luo, Yajun; Zhang, Xinong

2018-05-01

In order to improve the isolation performance of passive Stewart platforms, the negative stiffness magnetic spring (NSMS) is employed to construct high static low dynamic stiffness (HSLDS) struts. With the NSMS, the resonance frequencies of the platform can be reduced effectively without deteriorating its load bearing capacity. The model of the Stewart isolation platform with HSLDS struts is presented and the stiffness characteristic of its struts is studied firstly. Then the nonlinear dynamic model of the platform including both geometry nonlinearity and stiffness nonlinearity is established; and its simplified dynamic model is derived under the condition of small vibration. The effect of nonlinearity on the isolation performance is also evaluated. Finally, a prototype is built and the isolation performance is tested. Both simulated and experimental results demonstrate that, by using the NSMS, the resonance frequencies of the Stewart isolator are reduced and the isolation performance in all six directions is improved: the isolation frequency band is increased and extended to a lower-frequency level.

Satisfactory arterial repair 1 year after ultrathin strut biodegradable polymer sirolimus-eluting stent implantation: an angioscopic observation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ishihara, Takayuki; Awata, Masaki; Iida, Osamu; Fujita, Masashi; Masuda, Masaharu; Okamoto, Shin; Nanto, Kiyonori; Kanda, Takashi; Tsujimura, Takuya; Uematsu, Masaaki; Mano, Toshiaki

2018-01-15

The ultrathin strut biodegradable polymer sirolimus-eluting stent (Orsiro, O-SES) exhibits satisfactory clinical outcomes. However, no report to date has documented the intravascular status of artery repair after O-SES implantation. We examined 5 O-SES placed in 4 patients (age 65 ± 12 years, male 75%) presenting with stable angina pectoris due to de novo lesions in native coronary arteries. Coronary angioscopy was performed immediately after percutaneous coronary intervention and 1 year later. Angioscopic images were analyzed to determine the following: (1) dominant grade of neointimal coverage (NIC) over the stent; (2) maximum yellow plaque grade; and (3) existence of thrombus. Yellow plaque grade was evaluated both immediately after stent implantation and at the time of follow-up observation. The other parameters were evaluated at the time of follow-up examination. NIC was graded as: grade 0, stent struts exposed; grade 1, struts bulging into the lumen, although covered; grade 2, struts embedded in the neointima, but translucent; grade 3, struts fully embedded and invisible. Yellow plaque severity was graded as: grade 0, white; grade 1, light yellow; grade 2, yellow; and grade 3, intensive yellow. Angioscopic findings at 1 year demonstrated the following: dominant NIC grade 1, grade 2, and grade 3 in 1, 2, and 2 stents, respectively; all stents were covered to some extent; focal thrombus adhesion was observed in only 1 stent. Yellow plaque grade did not change from immediately after stent implantation to follow-up. O-SES demonstrated satisfactory arterial repair 1 year after implantation.

Portal WEB 2.0. utilizando Framework Struts

OpenAIRE

Palacín Mateo, Manuel

2007-01-01

El propósito de este proyecto es la implementación de un portal interactivo de contactos utilizando las tecnologías J2EE mediante Struts y siguiendo la tendencia Web 2.0. Previo a esta implementación se ha hecho una valoración del mercado actual de los portales de contactos y se han evaluado los servicios que ofrecen para posteriormente añadirlos a la demostración tecnológica. Tras esto se ha explicado lo que es la tendencia Web 2.0. Finalmente se han evaluado las diferentes opciones o tec...

The impact of energy price shocks on the UK economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This report describes the results of six scenarios considering the impact of energy price shocks on the UK economy. The six scenarios considered are: UK aggregate energy price scenario; pan-Europe aggregate energy price; global aggregate energy price; UK temporary gas price; UK permanent gas price; crude (Brent) oil price. As expected, shocks to aggregate energy prices cause the largest macroeconomic and energy demand effects (in terms of growth rate volatility). Shocks to gas prices produce a greater growth volatility for macroeconomic and energy demand than shocks to oil prices. In general terms, shocks specific to the UK market tend to produce more growth rate volatility than wider ranging price shocks (global or pan-European). All of the price shocks considered have a recursive effect on the main indicators, which tend to stabilise around the baseline level in the long run. The report summarises the results obtained in the different scenarios

Shares, gaps and the economy's response to oil disruptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huntington, Hillard G.

2004-01-01

Most previous studies have focused on whether oil price shocks cause economic recessions but fewer studies have investigated whether the impact of an oil price shock can be different under alternative economic conditions. Using an international data set of industrialized economies, this paper explores whether an economy relying more on oil or operating closer to full employment may be more vulnerable to an oil disruption. Although the results for oil dependence are ambiguous, the analysis does find a significant relationship between the impacts of an oil shock and how closely the economy is operating to its full-employment level prior to the disruption. (Author)

Experimental study on combustion modes and thrust performance of a staged-combustor of the scramjet with dual-strut

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Qingchun; Chetehouna, Khaled; Gascoin, Nicolas; Bao, Wen

2016-05-01

To enable the scramjet operate in a wider flight Mach number, a staged-combustor with dual-strut is introduced to hold more heat release at low flight Mach conditions. The behavior of mode transition was examined using a direct-connect model scramjet experiment along with pressure measurements. The typical operating modes of the staged-combustor are analyzed. Fuel injection scheme has a significant effect on the combustor operating modes, particularly for the supersonic combustion mode. Thrust performances of the combustor with different combustion modes and fuel distributions are reported in this paper. The first-staged strut injection has a better engine performance in the operation of subsonic combustion mode. On the contrast, the second-staged strut injection has a better engine performance in the operation of supersonic combustion mode.

Thermal shock cracking of GSO single crystal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miyazaki, Noriyuki; Yamamoto, Kazunari; Tamura, Takaharu; Kurashige, Kazuhisa; Ishibashi, Hiroyuki; Susa, Kenzo

1998-01-01

The quantitative estimation of the failure stress of a gadolinium orthosilicate (Gd 2 SiO 5 , hereafter abbreviated as GSO) single crystal due to thermal shock was investigated. A cylindrical test specimen was heated in a silicone oil bath, then subjected to thermal shock by pouring room temperature silicone oil. Cracking occurred during cooling. The heat conduction analysis was performed to obtain temperature distribution in a GSO single crystal at cracking, using the surface temperatures measured in the thermal shock cracking test. Then the thermal stress was calculated using temperature profile of the test specimen obtained from the heat conduction analysis. It is found from the results of the thermal stress analysis and the observation of the cracking in test specimens that the thermal shock cracking occurs in a cleavage plane due to the stress normal to the plane. Three-point bending tests were also performed to examine the relationship between the critical stress for thermal shock cracking and the three-point bending strength obtained from small-sized test specimens. (author)

Oil and the world economy: some possible futures.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumhof, Michael; Muir, Dirk

2014-01-13

This paper, using a six-region dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, assesses the output and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies, the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, output growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.

Oil prices and long-run risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ready, Robert Clayton

I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide an excellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low future aggregate consumption growth. Motivated by these facts, I add an oil consumption good to the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron [2004] to study the asset pricing implications of observed changes in the dynamic interaction of consumption and oil prices. Empirically I observe that, compared to the first half of my 1987--2010 sample, oil consumption growth in the last 10 years is unresponsive to levels of oil prices, creating an decrease in the mean-reversion of oil prices, and an increase in the persistence of oil price shocks. The model implies that the change in the dynamics of oil consumption generates increased systematic risk from oil price shocks due to their increased persistence. However, persistent oil prices also act as a counterweight for shocks to expected consumption growth, with high expected growth creating high expectations of future oil prices which in turn slow down growth. The combined effect is to reduce overall consumption risk and lower the equity premium. The model also predicts that these changes affect the riskiness of of oil futures contracts, and combine to create a hump shaped term structure of oil futures, consistent with recent data.

The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances: a CGE model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doroodian, K.; Boyd, Roy

2003-01-01

This study examines whether oil price shocks are inflationary in the US. We increase the price of oil in the year 2000 in a manner consistent with the oil price shock of 1973-74 and let the economy experience a Hicksian technological change. Then using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we conduct our analyses under two separate cases: (1) regular economic growth, and (2) low economic growth. We also run three technological scenarios: (1) no technology change, (2) technological advances in the manufacturing and refining sectors, and (3) technological advances in the manufacturing, refining, chemical, and service sectors. The effects of these changes are analyzed over the next 20 years until the year 2020. Our results suggest that while a shock of the magnitude experienced in the 1970s will have a fairly severe effect on such things as gasoline and refinery prices, the aggregate price changes will be largely dissipated over time at the aggregate level. Furthermore, the aggregate level of prices (CPI and PPI) will fall over time as the level of technological advances rise under both growth scenarios. There are several reasons why we would obtain such results. First of all, the structure of the US economy has changed remarkably since the early 1970s. Rather than being a manufacturing based economy, the US is largely a service based economy today and hence it is more protected form raw materials shortages. Second, the economy has had a steady history of strong growth and the faster an economy grows the quicker disruptions to that economy are dissipated. Finally, our economy is experiencing rapid technological advances in information systems which have served to reduce costs and maintain output in a wide number of economic sectors

The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances: a CGE model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doroodian, K.; Boyd, R.

2003-01-01

This study examines whether oil price shocks are inflationary in the US. We increase the price of oil in the year 2000 in a manner consistent with the oil price shock of 1973-74 and let the economy experience a Hicksian technological change. Then using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we conduct our analyses under two separate cases: (1) regular economic growth, and (2) low economic growth. We also run three technological scenarios: (1) no technology change, (2) technological advances in the manufacturing and refining sectors, and (3) technological advances in the manufacturing, refining, chemical, and service sectors. The effects of these changes are analyzed over the next 20 years until the year 2020. Our results suggest that while a shock of the magnitude experienced in the 1970s will have a fairly severe effect on such things as gasoline and refinery prices, the aggregate price changes will be largely dissipated over time at the aggregate level. Furthermore, the aggregate level of prices (CPI and PPI) will fall over time as the level of technological advances rise under both growth scenarios. There are several reasons why we would obtain such results. First of all, the structure of the US economy has changed remarkably since the early 1970s. Rather than being a manufacturing based economy, the US is largely a service based economy today and hence it is more protected from raw materials shortages. Second, the economy has had a steady history of strong growth and the faster an economy grows the quicker disruptions to that economy are dissipated. Finally, our economy is experiencing rapid technological advances in information systems which have served to reduce costs and maintain output in a wide number of economic sectors.(author)

The oil price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alba, P.

2000-01-01

Statistical analysis cannot, alone, provide an oil price forecast. So, one needs to understand the fundamental phenomena which control the past trends since the end of world war II After a first period during which oil, thanks to its abundance, was able to increase its market share at the expense of other energies, the first oil shock reflects the rarefaction of oil resource with the tilting of the US production curve from growth to decline. Since then, the new situation is that of a ''cohabitation'' between oil and the other energies with the oil price, extremely volatile, reflecting the trial and error adjustment of the market share left to the other energies. Such a context may explain the recent oil price surge but the analogy between the US oil situation at the time of the first shock and that existing today for the world outside Middle East suggest another possibility, that of a structural change with higher future oil prices. The authors examine these two possibilities, think that the oil price will reflect both as long as one or the other will not become proven, and conclude with a series of political recommendations. (authors)

Six-strut arrangements for cartesian movements of mirrors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noll, T.; Zeschke, Th.; Reichardt, G.; Lammert, H.; Gudat, W.

2001-01-01

At BESSY a new six-strut arrangement for general small travel mirror adjustment mechanisms has been developed. This patented (Patent DE 10042802.5) arrangement allows very simple movements in all six linear and rotational degrees of freedom. The movements of the mirror are simply determined by moving either one drive, or up to three drives by the same amount. The first mirror adjustment systems of this design is successfully in operation since the start of BESSY II. Their performance and reliability is very satisfactory. This contribution will present the concepts

Strut fracture with Björk-Shiley 70 degrees convexo-concave valve. An international multi-institutional follow-up study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ericsson, A; Lindblom, D; Semb, G; Huysmans, H A; Thulin, L I; Scully, H E; Bennett, J G; Ostermeyer, J; Grunkemeier, G L

1992-01-01

Between 1980 and 1983, 831 Björk-Shiley 70 degrees convexo-concave prosthetic heart valves were implanted at five institutions in Sweden, Germany. The Netherlands, and Canada. As of January 1991, there were 34 outlet strut fractures occurring from 0.2 to 10.1 years (median = 4.6 years) after implantation. In addition, there were 28 sudden, unexplained deaths. The mortality after strut fracture was 84%. The mortality after emergency valve replacement for strut fracture was 50%. The 10-year actuarial fracture rate (standard error) was 10.5 (2.4)% for large (29-33 mm) valves vs. 3.3 (1.2)% for 21-27 mm valves (P less than 0.001). Within valve size groups, fracture rates for aortic and mitral valves were similar. Cox regression analysis found only valve size to be significantly associated with strut fracture. There is a further subgrouping of the valves according to the manufacturer: group I are the earlier large 29-33 mm) valves; group II are the later large valves; group III are the small size (21-27 mm) valves. The risk of strut fracture was highest in group I (12.3% at 10 years) with an approximatively constant hazard (1.4% per year). A comparison was made with a statistical model incorporating all cases reported to the manufacturer. This model estimates fracture rates approximately 63%-73% of those found in the present study. These findings lead us to recommend that group I patients should be considered for elective reoperation on an individual basis, giving careful attention to risk factors and contraindications.

The third oil shock: The effects of lower oil prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pearce, J

1983-01-01

This book assesses how oil prices have affected other elements of the economy and assesses the costs and benefits that could result from lower oil prices for different groups of countries. The book also analyses the extent of OPEC's influence, the consumers countries' needs for energy security and the altered role of the oil industry.

Essays on oil and business cycles in Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Aba Alkhail, Bandar A.

This dissertation consists of three chapters. Chapter one presents a theoretical model using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach to investigate the role of world oil prices in explaining the business cycle in Saudi Arabia. This model incorporates both productivity and oil revenue shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than oil shocks. However, this model has some unfavorable features that are associated with both investment and labor hours. The second chapter presents a modified theoretical model using DSGE approach to examine the role of world oil prices versus productivity shocks in explaining the business cycles in Saudi Arabia. To overcome the unfavorable features of the baseline model, the alternative model adds friction to the model by incorporating investment portfolio adjustment cost. Thus, the alternative model produces similar dynamics to that of the baseline model but the unfavorable characteristics are eliminated. Also, this chapter conducts sensitivity analysis. The objective of the third chapter is to empirically investigate how real world oil price and productivity shocks affect output, consumption, investment, labor hours, and trade balance/output ratio for Saudi Arabia. This chapter complements the theoretical model of the previous chapters. In addition, this study builds a foundation for future studies in examining the impact of real world oil price shocks on the economies of key trade partners of Saudi Arabia. The results of the third chapter show that productivity shocks matter more for macroeconomic fluctuations than oil shocks for the Saudis' primary trade partners. Therefore, fears of oil importing countries appear to be overstated. As a whole, this research is important for the following reasons. First, the empirical model is consistent with the predictions of our theoretical model in that productivity is a driving force of business cycles in Saudi Arabia

European Union and oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paillard, Christophe Alexandre

2004-01-01

In a context of oil price increase, problems about a Russian oil company (Loukos), and uncertainties in the Middle-East, the possibility of a new oil shock is a threat for Europe, and raises the issue of a true European energy policy which would encompass, not only grid development, environmental issues or market regulation issues, but also strategic issues related to energy supply security. This article proposes an overview of the European policy: first steps for a future European energy and oil policy in the green paper of the European Commission published in November 2000, issues of pollution and safety for hydrocarbon maritime transport. The article then examines the possibility of a third oil shock due to a crisis in the Middle East, and discusses whether European must have strategic stocks to face an outage of oil supplies

Strut and tie modeling for RC short beams with corroded stirrups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed K. El-Sayed

Full Text Available Corrosion of steel reinforcement is one of the major problems that shorten the service life of reinforced concrete (RC structures. Steel stirrups, due to their location as an outer reinforcement, are more susceptible to corrosion problems and damage. However, there is limited research work in the literature on the effects of stirrup corrosion on the shear strength of RC beams. This paper attempts to evaluate analytically the residual shear strength of RC short beams with corrosion-damaged stirrups. The shear strength of short or deep beams are generally determined using the strut and tie model. The corrosion effects were implemented in the model to make it capable of predicting the residual shear capacity of RC beams with corroded stirrups. The effect of corrosion is implemented considering the reduction in geometry of the concrete cross section due to spalling and reduction in effective compressive strength of concrete due to corrosion cracks. The proposed strut and tie model which accounts for the corrosion effects was verified using the experimental data available in the literature, and good agreement was found.

77 FR 5730 - Airworthiness Directives; Bombardier, Inc. Airplanes

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-06

... necessary; and, for certain MLG shock strut assemblies, replacement or rework of the apex nut. Since we...) Replacement or Rework of the Apex Nut for Model CL-600-2C10 Airplanes For any MLG shock strut assembly... hours after May 18, 2011, replace or rework the apex nut, in accordance with Part B of the...

Awara (Astrocaryum vulgare M.) pulp oil: chemical characterization, and anti-inflammatory properties in a mice model of endotoxic shock and a rat model of pulmonary inflammation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bony, Emilie; Boudard, Frédéric; Brat, Pierre; Dussossoy, Emilie; Portet, Karine; Poucheret, Patrick; Giaimis, Jean; Michel, Alain

2012-01-01

Awara (Astrocaryum vulgare M.) is a palm fruit mainly used in nutrition. We analysed the pulp oil for fatty acid, tocopherol, carotenoid, and phytosterol and we evaluated whether this oil may attenuate inflammation in vivo. In an endotoxic shock model, awara pulp oil treatment decreased pro-inflammatory cytokines and increased anti-inflammatory cytokines. In a pulmonary inflammation model, awara pulp oil treatment reduced eosinophil and lymphocyte numbers recovered into the broncho-alveolar lavages. These results suggest that awara pulp oil administration can efficiently counteract an acute and chronic inflammatory response in vivo that is probably mediated by fatty acids and minor compounds. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural FEM analysis of the strut-to-fuselage joint of a two-seat composite aircraft

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vargas-Rojas, Erik; Camarena-Arellano, Diego; Hernández-Moreno, Hilario

2014-01-01

An analysis of a strut-to-fuselage joint is realized in order to evaluate the zones with a high probability of failure by means of a safety factor. The whole section is analyzed using the Finite Element Method (FEM) so as to estimate static resistance behavior, therefore it is necessary a numerical mock-up of the section, the mechanical properties of the Carbon-Epoxy (C-Ep) material, and to evaluate the applied loads. Results of the analysis show that the zones with higher probability of failure are found around the wing strut and the fuselage joint, with a safety factor lower than expected in comparison with the average safety factor used on aircrafts built mostly with metals

An analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations for a small open oil-based economy: The case of Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Abdulkarim, Bander B.

The increasing fluctuations in the oil prices through the last decades have been transferred to the oil exporting countries. Thus, many oil exporting countries experienced significant changes in the economic activity due to changes in the oil markets. In light of this, oil exporting countries have attempted to implement a policy that would stabilize the fluctuations in the oil markets recognizing the adverse effects of such behavior on oil exporting countries, as well as oil importing countries. Saudi Arabia, as the largest oil-exporting country and a member of OPEC, takes the role of oil-markets stabilizer by behaving as the swing producer. This role has caused the global economic fluctuations to transfer into the domestic economy. In addition, Saudi Arabian government has adopted a fixed exchange rate currency regime. Although it has contributed to domestic price stabilizations, this policy has also exposed the country to global economic disturbances. The purpose of the study is to empirically investigate these aspects for Saudi Arabia. First, the effects of shocks originated in the international markets on the Saudi Arabian economy. Second, how the fixed exchange rate regimes influences the domestic macroeconomic variables. Third, to what extent the oil sector contributes to the non-oil domestic fluctuations. Finally, how the findings from the study can be explained by economic theory. In pursuing this, there are four economic theories that are considered to explain the causes of business cycles. These theories are Classical Theory, Keynesian Theory, Monetarist Theory, and the Real Business Cycles. In addition, a theoretical model is derived that is suitable for an oil-based economy. The model follows the set up of McCallum and Nelson (1999). Then, the empirical models of Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) and Error Correction Model (ECM) are implemented with three different specifications: Choleski Decomposition, Block Exogeneity and long-run Cointegration

Disequilibrium analysis of three macroeconomies after two OPEC shocks: US, Germany, and Japan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lin, G.Y.

1983-01-01

Economic performance in each economy is discussed and an appraisal of policy choices is given. Two OPEC shocks, (1973-1974) and (1979-1980), are specially brought out because of their uniqueness in economic history and also their dominant feature as supply-side shocks which are ignored in the conventional Keynesian economics. The model considers both aggregate demand and aggregate supply in an economy, and provides a framework to describe economic phenomena after OPEC shocks. The model consists of two dynamic adjustments, quantity adjustments and price adjustments. It is assumed that quantity adjustments are observed more frequently than price adjustments in the short run. However, prices are not perfectly rigid but less frequently adjusted. Under this framework, the phenomenon of classical unemployment can be distinguished from Keynesian unemployment for the purpose of discussion. The results showed that all these three economies were in the classical unemployment regime during the first oil shock and, during the second oil shock, Germany and Japan were in the classical unemployment regime while US was in the Keynesian unemployment regime. However, both Germany and Japan performed comparatively better than the US during the second oil shock in terms of real growth of GNP and inflation rates. It demonstrated that Germany and Japan were aware of the feature of supply shocks and paid attention to both demand and supply, especially to promote supply by reducing the dependence on oil and by increasing the flexibility of money wage rates.

78 FR 73997 - Airworthiness Directives; Various Aircraft Equipped with Wing Lift Struts

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-10

...-0023; Directorate Identifier 96-CE-072-AD; Amendment 39-17688; AD 99-01-05 R1] RIN 2120-AA64... Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: We are revising Airworthiness Directive (AD) 99-01-05 for certain aircraft equipped with wing lift struts. AD 99-01-05 required repetitively inspecting the wing...

Design of squat shear walls using continuous strut-and-tie resistant models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos, S.H. de C; Silva, R.E. da

1993-01-01

A new approach is presented for designing squat shear walls, subjected to seismic loading. In this approach, the strut-and-tie resistant models, proposed by Schlaich et al., are generalized in order to analyze continuous fields of compression and tension stresses. The application of the presented methodology is illustrated through numerical examples. (author)

78 FR 3356 - Airworthiness Directives; Various Aircraft Equipped With Wing Lift Struts

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-16

...) of this AD, inspect the wing lift strut forks for cracks using magnetic particle procedures, such as... for Non-destructive Testing, or MIL-STD-410. (i) If no external corrosion is found on any wing lift..., the surface should be sanded or polished smooth before testing to assure a consistent and smooth...

Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Youngho Chang; Joonfong Wong

2003-01-01

This study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy is marginal. Both impulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to believe that the impact only had an insignificant adverse effect on Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and unemployment rates. Further analysis on two oil vulnerability measures supports the finding: the declining trend of oil intensity in Singapore since 1989 and the declining shares of the Singapore's expenditure on oil consumption as a percentage of its nominal GDP. This study identifies, however, that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy should not be considered negligible even though it is small. (Author)

Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang Youngho; Wong, Joon Fong

2003-01-01

This study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy is marginal. Both impulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to believe that the impact only had an insignificant adverse effect on Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and unemployment rates. Further analysis on two oil vulnerability measures supports the finding: the declining trend of oil intensity in Singapore since 1989 and the declining shares of the Singapore's expenditure on oil consumption as a percentage of its nominal GDP. This study identifies, however, that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy should not be considered negligible even though it is small

Shock therapy: Gris Gun's shock absorber can take the punch

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anon.

2000-04-01

A newly developed shock impedance tool that isolates downhole tools that measure the effects of well stimulation techniques from being damaged by the violent shaking caused by various well stimulation techniques which combine perforating and propellant technology in a single tool, is discussed. The shock exerted by a perforating gun can exceed 25,000 G forces within 100 to 300 milliseconds, may damage or even destroy the sensitive electronics housed in the various recorders that record data about fracture gradients, permeability and temperature. The shock absorber developed by Tesco Gris Gun and Computalog, incorporates the mechanics of a piston style shock absorber in combination with a progressive spring stack and energy-dampening silicone oil chambers. The end results is an EUE 'slim line' assembly that is adaptable between the gun perforating string and the electronic equipment. It is typically attached below, reducing the shock load by as much as 90 per cent. The shock absorber is now available commercially through Gris Gun's exclusive distributorship. An improved version, currently under development, will be used for wireline perforating and tubing-conveyed perforating applications. 2 figs.

Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozlale, Umit; Pekkurnaz, Didem

2010-01-01

Although there has been an increasing number of studies about the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic performances, the literature on the interaction between oil prices and current account is limited, especially for oil importing developing countries. This paper analyzes the impact of oil prices on the current account balances for the Turkish economy using a structural vector autoregression model. Our model allows us to identify the net effect of oil prices on current account balances after controlling for other factors such as output gap and exchange rate misalignment. The results show that the response of current account ratio to oil price shock increases gradually up to the first three months and then starts to decrease, which indicates a significant effect of oil price shocks in the short-run. Moreover, when the obtained structural shocks are employed in a simple regression analysis, the parameter regarding the oil price shocks is found to be negative and statistically significant. The final section discusses the policy implications of the results.

Investigation of mixing characteristics in strut injectors using modal decomposition

Science.gov (United States)

Soni, Rahul Kumar; De, Ashoke

2018-01-01

Effect of a large-scale vortical structure on mixing and spreading of a shear layer is numerically investigated. Two strut configurations, namely, straight and tapered struts at two convective Mach numbers (Mc = 1.4 and 0.37) for two jet heights (0.6 and 1 mm) are investigated. The hydrogen jet is injected through a two-dimensional slot in oncoming coflow at Mach 2. An excellent agreement between simulated and experimental data is witnessed, whereas the instantaneous data reveal the presence of various large-scale structures in the flow field. From the instantaneous field, it becomes apparent that both the geometries have different vortical breakdown locations. It is also noticed that an early onset of vortex breakdown manifests itself into the mixing layer thickness enhancement, the effect of which is reflected in overall mixing characteristics. It becomes evident that the shear strength plays an important role in the near field mixing. The higher shear strength promotes the generation of large vortices. The analysis shows that the SS-0.6 case offers highest mixing efficiency being dominated by relatively large-scale structures. Eigenmodes obtained through Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) confirm the presence of dominating structures and shed light into the series of events involved in vortex pairing/merging and breakdown. Dynamic modal decomposition also strengthens the observation made through the POD.

CONTAGIOUS EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES ON ASIAN STOCK MARKETS’ BEHAVIOUR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jok-Tong Wan

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to examine the stock markets’ shock due to the effect of the price of oil in the East Asia Region. Particularly, this study examines if there is stock market interdependence during global oil price shocks (sudden changes for a sample of five total oil importers (the Philippines, Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, four net oil importers (Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and China, and one net oil exporter (Malaysia between 1999 and 2014. From the result, an oil price change is collectively found to have a small but significant positive impact on the stock markets, in particular where a sudden decrease in oil prices tends to cause a stock market downturn and volatility. The world economy’s spending, financial investments in oil futures and foreign investment by oil rich nations are some underlying motives for inducing this oil-stock positive relation. The same direction of time-varying conditional correlations is found across East Asian stock markets during negative oil price shocks. The integration among East Asian stock markets is inducing the oil shock contagion to be transmitted from direct oil-affected countries (South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore to non-direct oil affected countries’ (Japan and Taiwan stock markets. In spite of a long practiced ASEAN+3 macroeconomics surveillance process and Early Warning System (EWS which can be customized for stock markets to prevent or detect the oil risk, hedging against initial oil-affected stock markets and a stronger influence by the East Asian countries in the global world of oil and capital investment are strongly suggested.

The Transport of Mass, Energy, and Entropy in Cryogenic Support Struts for Engineering Design

Science.gov (United States)

Elchert, J. P.

2012-01-01

Engineers working to understand and reduce cryogenic boil-off must solve a variety of transport problems. An important class of nonlinear problems involves the thermal and mechanical design of cryogenic struts. These classic problems are scattered about the literature and typically require too many resources to obtain. So, to save time for practicing engineers, the author presents this essay. Herein, a variety of new, old, and revisited analytical and finite difference solutions of the thermal problem are covered in this essay, along with commentary on approach and assumptions. This includes a few thermal radiation and conduction combined mode solutions with a discussion on insulation, optimum emissivity, and geometrical phenomenon. Solutions to cooling and heat interception problems are also presented, including a discussion of the entropy generation. The literature on the combined mechanical and thermal design of cryogenic support struts is reviewed with an introduction to the associated numerical methods.

Slow oil shocks and the 'weakening of the oil price-macroeconomy relationship'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naccache, Theo

2010-01-01

Many papers have been documenting and analysing the asymmetry and the weakening of the oil price-macroeconomy relationship as off the early eighties. While there seems to be a consensus about the factors causing the asymmetry, namely adjustment costs which offset the benefits of low energy prices, the debate about the weakening of the relationship is not over yet. Moreover, the alternative oil price specifications which have been proposed by, and to restore the stability of the relationship fail to Granger cause output or unemployment in post-1980 data. By using the concept of accelerations of the oil price, we show that the weakening of this relationship corresponds to the appearance of slow oil price increases, which have less impact on the economy. When filtering out these slow oil price variations from the sample, we manage to rehabilitate the causality running from the oil price to the macroeconomy and show that far from weakening, the oil price accelerations-GDP relationship has even been growing stronger since the early eighties. (author)

Essays in the Application of Linear and Non-linear Bayesian VAR Models to the Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Price Shocks

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Bao H.

This thesis is a collection of five self contained empirical macroeconomic papers on the asymmetric effects of energy price shocks on various economies. Chapter 1 formally determines the number of regime changes in the US natural gas market by employing a MS-VAR model. Estimated using Bayesian methods, three regimes are identified for the period 1980 - 2016, namely, before the Decontrol Act, after the Decontrol Act and the Recession. The results show that the natural gas market tends to be much more sensitive to market fundamental shocks occurring in a Recession regime than in the other regimes. Augmenting the model by incorporating the price of crude oil, the results reveal that the impacts of oil price shocks on natural gas prices are relatively small. Chapter 2 provides new empirical evidence on the asymmetric reactions of the U.S. natural gas market and the U.S. economy to its market fundamental shocks in different phases of the business cycle. To this end, we employ a ST-VAR model to capture the asymmetric responses depending on economic conditions. Our results indicate that in contrast to the prediction made by a linear VAR model, the STVAR model provides a plausible explanation to the behavior of the U.S. natural gas market, which asymmetrically reacts in bad times and good times. Chapter 3 examines the relationship between China's economic growth and global oil market fluctuations between 1992Q1 and 2015Q3. We find that: (1) the time varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility provides a better fit as compared to it's constant counterparts; (2) the impacts of intertemporal global oil price shocks on China's output are often small and temporary in nature; (3) oil supply and specific oil demand shocks generally produce negative movements in China's GDP growth whilst oil demand shocks tend to have positive effects; (4) domestic output shocks have no significant impact on price or quantity movements within the global oil market. Chapter 4 examines the

Role of jet spacing and strut geometry on the formation of large scale structures and mixing characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Soni, Rahul Kumar; De, Ashoke

2018-05-01

The present study primarily focuses on the effect of the jet spacing and strut geometry on the evolution and structure of the large-scale vortices which play a key role in mixing characteristics in turbulent supersonic flows. Numerically simulated results corresponding to varying parameters such as strut geometry and jet spacing (Xn = nDj such that n = 2, 3, and 5) for a square jet of height Dj = 0.6 mm are presented in the current study, while the work also investigates the presence of the local quasi-two-dimensionality for the X2(2Dj) jet spacing; however, the same is not true for higher jet spacing. Further, the tapered strut (TS) section is modified into the straight strut (SS) for investigation, where the remarkable difference in flow physics is unfolded between the two configurations for similar jet spacing (X2: 2Dj). The instantaneous density and vorticity contours reveal the structures of varying scales undergoing different evolution for the different configurations. The effect of local spanwise rollers is clearly manifested in the mixing efficiency and the jet spreading rate. The SS configuration exhibits excellent near field mixing behavior amongst all the arrangements. However, in the case of TS cases, only the X2(2Dj) configuration performs better due to the presence of local spanwise rollers. The qualitative and quantitative analysis reveals that near-field mixing is strongly affected by the two-dimensional rollers, while the early onset of the wake mode is another crucial parameter to have improved mixing. Modal decomposition performed for the SS arrangement sheds light onto the spatial and temporal coherence of the structures, where the most dominant structures are found to be the von Kármán street vortices in the wake region.

Panorama 2009 - oil supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The year 2008 will probably go down in the annals of the oil industry along with the oil shocks of 1973 and 1980, the counter-shock of 1986 and the demand surge of 2004. The price spikes observed until the month of July were unusually high, followed by an unusually abrupt, steep decrease. This is the result of the short-sightedness shown by all market players, most of whom failed to anticipate the economic downturn

Three-Dimensional Printing of Hollow-Struts-Packed Bioceramic Scaffolds for Bone Regeneration.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Yongxiang; Zhai, Dong; Huan, Zhiguang; Zhu, Haibo; Xia, Lunguo; Chang, Jiang; Wu, Chengtie

2015-11-04

Three-dimensional printing technologies have shown distinct advantages to create porous scaffolds with designed macropores for application in bone tissue engineering. However, until now, 3D-printed bioceramic scaffolds only possessing a single type of macropore have been reported. Generally, those scaffolds with a single type of macropore have relatively low porosity and pore surfaces, limited delivery of oxygen and nutrition to surviving cells, and new bone tissue formation in the center of the scaffolds. Therefore, in this work, we present a useful and facile method for preparing hollow-struts-packed (HSP) bioceramic scaffolds with designed macropores and multioriented hollow channels via a modified coaxial 3D printing strategy. The prepared HSP scaffolds combined high porosity and surface area with impressive mechanical strength. The unique hollow-struts structures of bioceramic scaffolds significantly improved cell attachment and proliferation and further promoted formation of new bone tissue in the center of the scaffolds, indicating that HSP ceramic scaffolds can be used for regeneration of large bone defects. In addition, the strategy can be used to prepare other HSP ceramic scaffolds, indicating a universal application for tissue engineering, mechanical engineering, catalysis, and environmental materials.

Bioresorbable scaffold -fourth revolution or failed revolution: Is low scaffold strut thickness the wrong target?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sundeep Mishra

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Bioresorbable scaffold (BRS technology has currently fallen into disrepute because of inordinately high risk of scaffold thrombosis and post-procedure myocardial infarction. Low tensile and radial strengths of polymeric BRS contributing to improper strut embedment have been identified as major correlates of poor outcomes following BRS implantation. Magnesium has a better tensile/radial strength compared with polymeric BRS but it is still far lower than cobalt-chromium. Newers innovations utilizing alteration in polymer composition and orientation or even newer polymers have focused on attempts to reduce strut thickness but may have little effect on tensile/radial strength of finished product and therefore may not impact the BRS outcome on long run. Currently, newer generation BRS usage may be restricted to suitable low risk younger patients with proper vessel preparation and application of technique.

Hierarchical tailoring of strut architecture to control permeability of additive manufactured titanium implants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Z. [Department of Materials, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Jones, D. [School of Engineering, University of Liverpool, Brownlow Hill, Liverpool, L69 3GH (United Kingdom); Yue, S. [Manchester X-ray Imaging Facility, School of Materials, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Lee, P.D., E-mail: peter.lee@manchester.ac.uk [Manchester X-ray Imaging Facility, School of Materials, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Jones, J.R. [Department of Materials, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Sutcliffe, C.J. [School of Engineering, University of Liverpool, Brownlow Hill, Liverpool, L69 3GH (United Kingdom); Jones, E. [Department of Advanced Technology, Stryker Orthopaedics, Raheen Business Park, Limerick (Ireland)

2013-10-15

Porous titanium implants are a common choice for bone augmentation. Implants for spinal fusion and repair of non-union fractures must encourage blood flow after implantation so that there is sufficient cell migration, nutrient and growth factor transport to stimulate bone ingrowth. Additive manufacturing techniques allow a large number of pore network designs. This study investigates how the design factors offered by selective laser melting technique can be used to alter the implant architecture on multiple length scales to control and even tailor the flow. Permeability is a convenient parameter that characterises flow, correlating to structure openness (interconnectivity and pore window size), tortuosity and hence flow shear rates. Using experimentally validated computational simulations, we demonstrate how additive manufacturing can be used to tailor implant properties by controlling surface roughness at a microstructual level (microns), and by altering the strut ordering and density at a mesoscopic level (millimetre). Highlights: • Experimentally validated permeability prediction tools for hierarchical implants. • Randomised structures form preferential flow channels with stronger shear flows. • Hierarchical strut structures allow independent tailoring of flow and pore size.

Hierarchical tailoring of strut architecture to control permeability of additive manufactured titanium implants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Z.; Jones, D.; Yue, S.; Lee, P.D.; Jones, J.R.; Sutcliffe, C.J.; Jones, E.

2013-01-01

Porous titanium implants are a common choice for bone augmentation. Implants for spinal fusion and repair of non-union fractures must encourage blood flow after implantation so that there is sufficient cell migration, nutrient and growth factor transport to stimulate bone ingrowth. Additive manufacturing techniques allow a large number of pore network designs. This study investigates how the design factors offered by selective laser melting technique can be used to alter the implant architecture on multiple length scales to control and even tailor the flow. Permeability is a convenient parameter that characterises flow, correlating to structure openness (interconnectivity and pore window size), tortuosity and hence flow shear rates. Using experimentally validated computational simulations, we demonstrate how additive manufacturing can be used to tailor implant properties by controlling surface roughness at a microstructual level (microns), and by altering the strut ordering and density at a mesoscopic level (millimetre). Highlights: • Experimentally validated permeability prediction tools for hierarchical implants. • Randomised structures form preferential flow channels with stronger shear flows. • Hierarchical strut structures allow independent tailoring of flow and pore size

Oil price movements and globalisation: is there a connection?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Looney, R.

2002-01-01

There has been considerable speculation over the years concerning the cost of large oil price movements ('shocks') to consuming countries. For the advanced industrial countries, the conventional wisdom appears to be that, because these economies are becoming more service-oriented, less energy is needed per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) and hence a lessening of the economic costs associated with increased oil prices. On the other hand, because many newly industrialised or catching-up countries are entering a phase of energy-intensive industrialisation, the same oil shocks are placing an increasing burden on these economies. One can easily argue, however, that industrialisation is only one facet of economic change taking place in the world economy. Conceivably, the rapid pace of increased globalisation may significantly modify these patterns. To test this proposition, an operational definition of globalisation is developed and shown to be positively associated with the strength of oil price shocks. The main finding of the study is that increased globalisation appears to be strengthening the impact of oil price shocks in the advanced industrial countries, but to a much lesser extent in the newly industrialising countries. (author)

Asymmetric impacts of international energy shocks on macroeconomic activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeh, Fang-Yu; Hu, Jin-Li; Lin, Cheng-Hsun

2012-01-01

While limited by its scarcity of natural resources, the impacts of energy price changes on Taiwan's economic activities have been an important issue for social public and government authorities. This study applies the multivariate threshold model to investigate the effects of various international energy price shocks on Taiwan's macroeconomic activity. By separating energy price changes into the so-called decrease and increase regimes, we can realize different impacts of energy price changes and their shocks on economic output. The results confirm that there is an asymmetric threshold effect for the energy-output nexus. The optimal threshold levels are exactly where the oil price change is at 2.48%, the natural gas price change is at 0.66%, and the coal price change is at 0.25%. The impulse response analysis suggests that oil price and natural gas shocks have a delayed negative impact on macroeconomic activities. - Highlights: ► This study applies multivariate threshold model to investigate the effects of various international energy price shocks on Taiwan's macroeconomic activity. ► The results confirm that there is an asymmetric threshold effect for energy-output nexus. ► The optimal threshold levels are exactly found where oil price change is at 2.48%, natural gas price change is at 0.66%, and coal price change is at 0.25%.

The effect of struts on the radiation diagram of Cassegrain antennas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henriques, L.M.D.

1981-09-01

This work presents a study on the effect of subreflector support members of Cassegrain antennas using the theory of scattering by cylinders structures. Expression for the surface current densities and arbitrary cross sections cylinders are developed, and the components for the scattered field are obtained. Using these results we analyse the effect of the struts on the gain reduction, and the rise of maximum side-lobe level. The final results obtained are then compared to other approximate theories. (author)

Comparison of Single Ti6Al4V Struts Made Using Selective Laser Melting and Electron Beam Melting Subject to Part Orientation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volker Weißmann

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The use of additive manufacturing technologies to produce lightweight or functional structures is widespread. Especially Ti6Al4V plays an important role in this development field and parts are manufactured and analyzed with the aim to characterize the mechanical properties of open-porous structures and to generate scaffolds with properties specific to their intended application. An SLM and an EBM process were used respectively to fabricate the Ti6Al4V single struts. For mechanical characterization, uniaxial compression tests and hardness measurements were conducted. Furthermore, the struts were manufactured in different orientations for the determination of the mechanical properties. Roughness measurements and a microscopic characterization of the struts were also carried out. Some parts were characterized following heat treatment (hot isostatic pressing. A functional correlation was found between the compressive strength and the slenderness ratio (λ as well as the equivalent diameter (d and the height (L of EBM and SLM parts. Hardness investigations revealed considerable differences related to the microstructure. An influence of heat treatment as well as of orientation could be determined. In this work, we demonstrate the influence of the fabrication quality of single struts, the roughness and the microstructure on mechanical properties as a function of orientation.

Bioresorbable scaffold -fourth revolution or failed revolution: Is low scaffold strut thickness the wrong target?

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Sundeep

Bioresorbable scaffold (BRS) technology has currently fallen into disrepute because of inordinately high risk of scaffold thrombosis and post-procedure myocardial infarction. Low tensile and radial strengths of polymeric BRS contributing to improper strut embedment have been identified as major correlates of poor outcomes following BRS implantation. Magnesium has a better tensile/radial strength compared with polymeric BRS but it is still far lower than cobalt-chromium. Newers innovations utilizing alteration in polymer composition and orientation or even newer polymers have focused on attempts to reduce strut thickness but may have little effect on tensile/radial strength of finished product and therefore may not impact the BRS outcome on long run. Currently, newer generation BRS usage may be restricted to suitable low risk younger patients with proper vessel preparation and application of technique. Copyright © 2017 Cardiological Society of India. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global oil prices, macroeconomic fundamentals and China's commodity sector comovements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Peng

2015-01-01

This paper investigates the common movements of commodity sectors in China as well as the economic underpinnings of the comovements. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to disentangle the common and idiosyncratic sector-specific factors of the prices of a group of China's commodity sectors: petrochemicals, grains, energy, non-ferrous metals, oils & fats, and softs. The results indicate that the common factor accounts for a significant portion of the fluctuations of China's commodity sectors, providing evidence of the strong commodity sector comovements in China. We further use a VAR model to link the common movements across China's commodity sectors to the underlying determinants, including global oil price shocks and domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. We find that the global oil price shocks have strong effects on the common movements across commodity sectors in China in addition to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations at long horizons. However, at short horizons, the common movements across commodity sectors in China respond more strongly to the global oil shocks than to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. - Highlights: • We examine the comovements of commodity prices at the industry level in China. • The common factor accounts for a significant portion of commodity sector fluctuations. • We investigate the joint impacts of global oil price shocks and domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements. • The global oil price shocks have persistent and strong effects on the comovements. • The impacts of domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements differ at short and long horizons.

Thermal shock investigation of silicon nitride

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ziegler, G.; Leucht, R.

1977-01-01

In this work, the thermal shock properties of commercial reaction-bonded Si 3 N 4 quality material (RBSN), of commercial hot-pressed Si 3 N 4 (HPSN) and of different laboratory grades of hot-pressed Si 3 N 4 were examined. The thermal shock properties of RBSN quality material differ according to the structure considerably: The critical temperature difference for sample crossections of 5 x 5 or 6 x 6 mm after quenching in oil lies between 730 0 C and over 1400 0 C. The best thermal shock properties are shown by high density RBSN quality material having very fine pores and high initial strength. The results indicate that for RBSN large pores and density inhomogenities are responsible for bad thermal shock properties. Resistance to fast temperature change is higher for hot-pressed Si 3 N 4 than for RBSN quality material. In HPSN, the thermal shock results show dependence on structure. High MgO content and the associated coarse rod-shaped configuration of the β phase and structural inhomogenities affect the thermal shock properties in an adverse way. (orig.) [de

Does oil move equity prices? A global view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nandha, Mohan; Faff, Robert

2008-01-01

Many studies indicate that oil price shocks have an adverse effect on real output and, hence, an adverse effect on corporate profits where oil is used as a key input. The present study examines whether and to what extent the adverse effect of oil price shocks impacts stock market returns. To this end we, analyse 35 DataStream global industry indices for the period from April 1983 to September 2005. Our findings indicate that oil price rises have a negative impact on equity returns for all sectors except mining, and oil and gas industries. Generally, these results are consistent with economic theory and evidence provided by previous empirical studies. Little evidence of any asymmetry is detected in the oil price sensitivities. In light of our findings, we recommend that international portfolio investors consider hedging oil price risk. (author)

How does market concern derived from the Internet affect oil prices?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Jian-Feng; Ji, Qiang

2013-01-01

Highlights: • The impact of market concern derived from the Web on oil volatility is analysed. • It has an equilibrium relationship between oil prices and long-run market concern. • The short-run market concerns have an asymmetric influence on oil price volatility. • The Internet can exaggerate the impact of information shocks on oil price. - Abstract: With the acceleration of oil marketisation and the rapid development of electronic information carriers, external information shocks can be easily and quickly transmitted to the oil market through the Internet. This paper analyses the impact of short- and long-run market concerns, derived from search query volumes in Google for different domains around the oil market on oil volatility using co-integration and the modified EGARCH model. Empirical results suggest there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between oil prices and long-run market concern for oil prices and oil demand. The short-run market concerns for the 2008 financial crisis and the Libyan war convulsion have a significant and asymmetric influence on oil price volatility. This indicates that market concern transmitted through the Internet can strengthen the linkage between oil price changes and external events by influencing the expectation of market traders, and to some extent it can exaggerate the impact of nonfundamental information shocks

Oil Prices, Credit Risks in Banking Systems, and Macro-Financial Linkages across GCC Oil Exporters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saleh Alodayni

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This paper assesses the effect of the recent 2014–2015 oil price slump on the financial stability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC region. The first objective of this paper is to assess how oil price shock propagates within the macroeconomy and how the macro shocks transmit to GCC banks’ balance sheets. This part of the paper implements a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM and a Panel Fixed Effect Model to estimate the response of nonperforming loans (NPLs to its macroeconomic determinants. The second objective of this paper is to assess any negative feedback effects between the GCC banking systems and the economy. The paper, therefore, implements a Panel VAR model to explore the macro-financial linkages between GCC banking systems and the real economy. The results indicate that oil price, non-oil GDP, interest rate, stock prices, and housing prices are major determinants of NPLs across GCC banks and the overall financial stability in the region. Credit risk shock tends to propagate disturbances to non-oil GDP, credit growth, and stock prices across GCC economies. A higher level of NPLs restricts banks’ credit growth and can dampen economic growth in these economies. The results support the notion that disturbances in banking systems lead to unwanted economic consequences for the real sector.

Oil prices, fiscal policy, and economic growth in oil-exporting countries

Science.gov (United States)

El-Anshasy, Amany A.

This dissertation argues that in oil-exporting countries fiscal policy could play an important role in transmitting the oil shocks to the economy and that the indirect effects of the changes in oil prices via the fiscal channel could be quite significant. The study comprises three distinct, yet related, essays. In the first essay, I try to study the fiscal policy response to the changes in oil prices and to their growing volatility. In a dynamic general equilibrium framework, a fiscal policy reaction function is derived and is empirically tested for a panel of 15 oil-exporters covering the period 1970--2000. After the link between oil price shocks and fiscal policy is established, the second essay tries to investigate the impact of the highly volatile oil prices on economic growth for the same sample, controlling for the fiscal channel. In both essays the study employs recent dynamic panel-data estimation techniques: System GMM. This approach has the potential advantages of minimizing the bias resulting from estimating dynamic panel models, exploiting the time series properties of the data, controlling for the unobserved country-specific effects, and correcting for any simultaneity bias. In the third essay, I focus on the case of Venezuela for the period 1950--2001. The recent developments in the cointegrating vector autoregression, CVAR technique is applied to provide a suitable framework for analyzing the short-run dynamics and the long-run relationships among oil prices, government revenues, government consumption, investment, and output.

Meta-Analysis of the Oil Price Elasticity of the GDP for Policy Analysis: Documentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leiby, Paul Newsome [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bowman, David Charles [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Oladosu, Gbadebo A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Uria Martinez, Rocio [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Johnson, Megan M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2017-08-01

Given the important role of oil in economic activities, policy makers are interested in estimates of the potential damage to the economy from oil price shocks, particularly during periods of rapid and large increases that accompany severe shocks. Such estimates are needed to quantify the economic costs of oil price shocks, and to evaluate the potential benefits of alternative policy responses. Although research on the economic impacts of oil price shocks is extensive and has generally found that large increases in oil prices exert negative economic impacts, the range of estimates, summarized by the oil price elasticity of the GDP or other aggregate measure of economic activity, is very wide. There are also conditions under which the relationship between the oil price and the economy could be positive. The range of estimates of the oil price elasticity of the GDP for the United States is typified by averages from the studies of Hamilton (2005, 2012) and Kilian and Vigfusson (2014), in which the implied elasticities were -0.014 to - 0.069 and +0.004 to -0.052, respectively. We employ a meta-regression approach to systematically summarize available estimates of the oil price elasticity of the GDP for oil importing economies, and examine the role of key factors. The resulting regression model was used to estimate the oil price elasticity of the GDP for the United States. Based on this we estimate the mean elasticity for the United States at -0.0238, with a 68% confidence interval of -0.0075 to -0.0402, four quarters after a shock.

DOES VOLATILITY IN CRUDE OIL PRICE PRECIPITATE MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This study examines the effects of crude oil price changes on economic activity in an oil dependent economy-Nigeria. A small open economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR technique is employed to study the macroeconomic dynamics of domestic price level, economic output, money supply and oil price in Nigeria. The sample covers the data from 1985:q1 to 2010:q4. The Impulse Response Functions (IRFs and the Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVDs results suggest that domestic policies, instead of oil-boom should be blamed for inflation. Also, oil price variations are driven mostly by oil shocks, however, domestic shocks are responsible for a reasonable portion of oil price variations.

Euler Strut: A Mechanical Analogy for Dynamics in the Vicinity of a Critical Point

Science.gov (United States)

Bobnar, Jaka; Susman, Katarina; Parsegian, V. Adrian; Rand, Peter R.; Cepic, Mojca; Podgornik, Rudolf

2011-01-01

An anchored elastic filament (Euler strut) under an external point load applied to its free end is a simple model for a second-order phase transition. In the static case, a load greater than the critical load causes a Euler buckling instability, leading to a change in the filament's shape. The analysis of filament dynamics with an external point…

A literature review of demand studies in world oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atkins, F.; Tayyebi Jazayeri, S.M.

2004-04-01

The literature on world oil market demands was reviewed, summarized and organized into seven major groupings. The objective was to model economic behaviour before and after price shocks. In particular, the paper demonstrated how the price elasticity of demand in world oil markets is estimated. It also showed how the relationship between energy and oil consumption and income are estimated. The income elasticity of demand was also estimated, and empirical estimates of the elasticity of aggregate output regarding crude oil and energy prices were presented. The paper also referred to the transportation sector and estimates of the changing nature of seasonal factors. The review showed that there is much heterogeneity of econometric results. The literature showed that demand increased considerably in response to the price shocks of the 1970s, but these shocks were reversed in the 1980s when the increase in demand did not correspond with the decrease in price. Some of the literature is driven by the belief that there must be a stable, non-linear model that fits the data both before and after price shocks. The authors question whether this could be true and propose an alternative hypothesis that there is a different model that pertains to economic behaviour after price shocks. 15 refs., 7 tabs., 1 fig

The oil price; Le prix du petrole

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alba, P. [Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), 92 - Rueil-Malmaison (France)

2000-05-01

Statistical analysis cannot, alone, provide an oil price forecast. So, one needs to understand the fundamental phenomena which control the past trends since the end of world war II After a first period during which oil, thanks to its abundance, was able to increase its market share at the expense of other energies, the first oil shock reflects the rarefaction of oil resource with the tilting of the US production curve from growth to decline. Since then, the new situation is that of a ''cohabitation'' between oil and the other energies with the oil price, extremely volatile, reflecting the trial and error adjustment of the market share left to the other energies. Such a context may explain the recent oil price surge but the analogy between the US oil situation at the time of the first shock and that existing today for the world outside Middle East suggest another possibility, that of a structural change with higher future oil prices. The authors examine these two possibilities, think that the oil price will reflect both as long as one or the other will not become proven, and conclude with a series of political recommendations. (authors)

The oil price and non-OPEC supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seymour, A.

1991-01-01

The design of any effective oil pricing policy by producers depends on a knowledge of the nature and complexity of supply responses. This book examines the development of non-OPEX oil reserves on a field-by-filed basis to determine how much of the increase in non-OPEC production could be attributable to the price shocks and how much was unambiguously due to decisions and developments that preceded the price shocks. Results are presented in eighteen case-studies of non-OPEC producers. This study will be of interest to economists and planners specializing in the upstream and to policy makers both in oil producing and consuming countries

Essays on the behavior of the oil market and OPEC

Science.gov (United States)

Algudhea, Salim

This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay is mainly concerned with investigating the risk-responsive behavior of OPEC members. Economic theory suggests that producers respond to the risk of volatile price by lowering production level. In the case of OPEC, the risk of the volatility in the price of crude oil does not seem to be a key determinant in the production decision-making process. Engineering constraints, data frequency, and political consideration may be the main causes of such a result. In the second essay, we tested the presence of the asymmetric adjustment in the cheating behavior as a result of crude oil price shocks. We utilize a set of cointegration and error correction methods that do not assume a linear adjustment to test whether cheaters within OPEC respond more to positive or negative crude oil price shocks. We conclude that cheaters respond more to negative shocks than positive shocks in oil price. The inelastic nature of demand for oil seems to play a crucial role in such asymmetric behavior. When there is a negative price shock, OPEC producers compensate for the loss in revenue by overproducing (i.e. cheat). Yet, if there is a positive shock in the price of crude oil, OPEC producers have less incentive to overproduce because of the inelastic demand for oil. The third essay is concerned with testing for the asymmetric adjustment in gasoline prices in the U.S. We consider a Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) process to test for the asymmetric adjustment in all of the possible stages that a gallon of gasoline goes through in order to find the source of asymmetry. Then, we examine the dynamics of gasoline prices using asymmetric error correction models based on the MTAR specifications. We find the asymmetric adjustment present in all stages. The asymmetry in the retail stage seems to be the result of insufficient demand faced by retailers.

Effect of compressive force on aeroelastic stability of a strut-braced wing

Science.gov (United States)

Sulaeman, Erwin

2002-01-01

Recent investigations of a strut-braced wing (SBW) aircraft show that, at high positive load factors, a large tensile force in the strut leads to a considerable compressive axial force in the inner wing, resulting in a reduced bending stiffness and even buckling of the wing. Studying the influence of this compressive force on the structural response of SBW is thus of paramount importance in the early stage of SBW design. The purpose of the this research is to investigate the effect of compressive force on aeroelastic stability of the SBW using efficient structural finite element and aerodynamic lifting surface methods. A procedure is developed to generate wing stiffness distribution for detailed and simplified wing models and to include the compressive force effect in the SBW aeroelastic analysis. A sensitivity study is performed to generate response surface equations for the wing flutter speed as functions of several design variables. These aeroelastic procedures and response surface equations provide a valuable tool and trend data to study the unconventional nature of SBW. In order to estimate the effect of the compressive force, the inner part of the wing structure is modeled as a beam-column. A structural finite element method is developed based on an analytical stiffness matrix formulation of a non-uniform beam element with arbitrary polynomial variations in the cross section. By using this formulation, the number of elements to model the wing structure can be reduced without degrading the accuracy. The unsteady aerodynamic prediction is based on a discrete element lifting surface method. The present formulation improves the accuracy of existing lifting surface methods by implementing a more rigorous treatment on the aerodynamic kernel integration. The singularity of the kernel function is isolated by implementing an exact expansion series to solve an incomplete cylindrical function problem. A hybrid doublet lattice/doublet point scheme is devised to reduce

The impact of oil price volatility on the future of the U.S. economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyd, Roy; Doroodian, K.; Thornton, Dennis

2000-01-01

This paper examines the impact of a foreign oil price shock on domestic energy markets as well as the U.S. economy as a whole. The analytical approach employed in the analysis consisted of a dynamic CGE model composed of eight production sectors, eight consumption sectors, three household categories classified by income, foreign sector, and the government. The results show that oil price shocks will have, as expected, a significantly positive effect on crude oil production. We also find that such price shocks negatively affect the refinery sector as input costs rise there. A decline in per-well productivity has the effect of dampening the rise in crude oil extraction and causing a further decline in refinery output. Economy-wide, the impact of a new series of oil price shocks is quite limited with overall welfare falling, but nowhere near the levels experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s. (Author)

The price of crude oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bakhtiari, A.M.S.

1999-01-01

The price of crude oil is among the most important prices quoted daily across the world - which is not surprising, since crude oil is the most widely used source of energy worldwide, as well as being a unique commodity. When petroleum burst onto the world stage in 1859, its price first went through some initial gyrations (1860-70), before settling in the $1.00 - 2.00 per barrel range (barring a few exceptions) for a full century. Then, the price underwent two 'shocks' (1973 and 1980), followed by the 'counter-shock' of 1986. Thereafter, the price entered the relative stability of the $15 - 20 /b consensus, where it lingered until recently. Some day, there is bound to be a fresh paradigm of 'insufficient oil reserves', thus ushering in a new era for oil prices. Taking into consideration available data on reserves and expert analysis, it would seem that that day may be years rather than decades away

Quantitative effects of the shale oil revolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belu Mănescu, Cristiana; Nuño, Galo

2015-01-01

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of the so-called “shale oil revolution” on oil prices and economic growth. We employ a general equilibrium model of the world oil market in which Saudi Arabia is the dominant firm, with the rest of the producers as a competitive fringe. Our results suggest that most of the expected increase in US oil supply due to the shale oil revolution has already been incorporated into prices and that it will produce an additional increase of 0.2% in the GDP of oil importers in the period 2010–2018. We also employ the model to analyze the collapse in oil prices in the second half of 2014 and conclude that it was mainly due to positive unanticipated supply shocks. - Highlights: • We analyze the impact of the “shale oil revolution” on oil prices and economic growth. • We employ a general equilibrium model of the oil market in which Saudi Arabia is the dominant firm. • We find that most of the shale oil revolution is already priced in. • We also analyze the decline in oil prices in the second half of 2014. • We find that unanticipated supply shocks played the major role in the fall.

Structural Analysis of Shipping Casks, Vol. 9. Energy Absorption Capabilities of Plastically Deformed Struts Under Specified Impact Loading Conditions (Thesis)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, F.C.

2001-01-01

The purpose of this investigation was to determine the energy absorption characteristics of plastically deformed inclined struts under impact loading. This information is needed to provide a usable method by which designers and analysts of shipping casks for radioactive or fissile materials can determine the energy absorption capabilities of external longitudinal fins on cylindrical casks under specified impact conditions. A survey of technical literature related to experimental determination of the dynamic plastic behavior of struts revealed no information directly applicable to the immediate problem, especially in the impact velocity ranges desired, and an experimental program was conducted to obtain the needed data. Mild-steel struts with rectangular cross sections were impacted by free-falling weights dropped from known heights. These struts or fin specimens were inclined at five different angles to simulate different angles of impact that fins on a shipping cask could experience under certain accident conditions. The resisting force of the deforming strut was measured and recorded as a function of time by using load cells instrumented with resistance strain gage bridges, signal conditioning equipment, an oscilloscope, and a Polaroid camera. The acceleration of the impacting weight was measured and recorded as a function of time during the latter portion of the testing program by using an accelerometer attached to the drop hammer, appropriate signal conditioning equipment, the oscilloscope, and the camera. A digital computer program was prepared to numerically integrate the force-time and acceleration-time data recorded during the tests to obtain deformation-time data. The force-displacement relationships were then integrated to obtain values of absorbed energy with respect to deformation or time. The results for various fin specimen geometries and impact angles are presented graphically, and these curves may be used to compute the energy absorption capacity of

Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

Science.gov (United States)

Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

Expectations, learning, and the changing relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milani, Fabio [Department of Economics, 3151 Social Science Plaza, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-5100 (United States)

2009-11-15

This paper estimates a structural general equilibrium model to investigate the changing relationship between the oil price and macroeconomic variables. The oil price, through the role of oil in production and consumption, affects aggregate demand and supply in the model. The assumption of rational expectations is relaxed in favor of learning. Oil prices, therefore, affect the economy through an additional channel, i.e. through their effect on the formation of agents' beliefs. The estimated learning dynamics indicates that economic agents' perceptions about the effects of oil prices on the economy have changed over time: oil prices were perceived to have large effects on output and inflation in the 1970s, but only milder effects after the mid-1980s. Since expectations play a large role in the determination of output and inflation, the effects of oil price increases on expectations can magnify the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. In the estimated model, in fact, the implied responses of output and inflation to oil price shocks were much more pronounced in the 1970s than in 2008. Therefore, through the time variation in the impact of oil prices on beliefs, the paper can successfully explain the observed weakening of the effects of oil price shocks on real activity and inflation. (author)

Expectations, learning, and the changing relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milani, Fabio

2009-01-01

This paper estimates a structural general equilibrium model to investigate the changing relationship between the oil price and macroeconomic variables. The oil price, through the role of oil in production and consumption, affects aggregate demand and supply in the model. The assumption of rational expectations is relaxed in favor of learning. Oil prices, therefore, affect the economy through an additional channel, i.e. through their effect on the formation of agents' beliefs. The estimated learning dynamics indicates that economic agents' perceptions about the effects of oil prices on the economy have changed over time: oil prices were perceived to have large effects on output and inflation in the 1970s, but only milder effects after the mid-1980s. Since expectations play a large role in the determination of output and inflation, the effects of oil price increases on expectations can magnify the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. In the estimated model, in fact, the implied responses of output and inflation to oil price shocks were much more pronounced in the 1970s than in 2008. Therefore, through the time variation in the impact of oil prices on beliefs, the paper can successfully explain the observed weakening of the effects of oil price shocks on real activity and inflation. (author)

Using Computer Techniques To Predict OPEC Oil Prices For Period 2000 To 2015 By Time-Series Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Esmail Ahmad

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The instability in the world and OPEC oil process results from many factors through a long time. The problems can be summarized as that the oil exports dont constitute a large share of N.I. only but it also makes up most of the saving of the oil states. The oil prices affect their market through the interaction of supply and demand forces of oil. The research hypothesis states that the movement of oil prices caused shocks crises and economic problems. These shocks happen due to changes in oil prices need to make a prediction within the framework of economic planning in a short run period in order to avoid shocks through using computer techniques by time series models.

Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150 years of data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balcilar, Mehmet; Gupta, Rangan; Wohar, Mark E.

2017-01-01

This paper investigates the role of permanent and transitory shocks, within the framework of common cycles and common trends, in explaining stock and oil prices. We perform a multivariate variance decomposition analysis of monthly data on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price and the S&P 500. The dataset used in the study spans a long period of 150 years and therefore contains a rich history to examine both the short- and long-run comovement properties of oil and stock prices. Given that the oil and stock markets might comove both in the short- and long-run, it is of interest to see the relative impacts of transitory and permanent shocks on both variables. We find that (log) oil price and (log) S&P 500 share a common stochastic trend for our full sample of September 1859 to July 2015, but a common cycle only exists during the post-WW II period. Full and post-WW II samples have quite different common feature estimates in terms of the impact of permanent and transitory shocks as measured by the impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions. We also find that in the short-run oil is driven mostly by cycles (transitory shocks) and stock market is mostly driven by permanent shocks. But, permanent shocks dominate in the long-run. - Highlights: • Role of permanent and transitory shocks analyzed for oil and stock markets • The framework of common cycles and common trends used over 1859 to 2015 • Common stochastic trend for full-sample and common cycle post-World War II • Stock market driven by permanent shock in short- and long-runs • Oil market driven by temporary (permanent) shocks in short-run (long-run)

After the oil price collapse

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohl, W.L.

1991-01-01

In this book, the authors focus on issues that include the extremely high prices following the second oil shock, the resulting decline in oil demand and the increase in non-OPEC production, reduced industry concentration, OPEC's subsequent attempt to regain market share; and the resulting free-for-all of competitive pricing

Electric Cars and Oil Prices

OpenAIRE

Azar, Jose

2009-01-01

This paper studies the joint dynamics of oil prices and interest in electric cars, measured as the volume of Google searches for related phrases. Not surprisingly, I find that oil price shocks predict increases in Google searches for electric cars. Much more surprisingly, I also find that an increase in Google searches predicts declines in oil prices. The high level of public interest in electric cars between April and August of 2008 can explain approximately half of the decline in oil prices...

A computational method for oleo-acoustics, application to hydraulic shock absorbers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Koren (Barry); P.F.M. Michielsen (Paul); J.-W. Kars; P. Wesseling

1995-01-01

textabstractTo predict high-frequency oil-flow phenomena in hydraulic-shock-absorber designs, a mathematical-physical model is proposed. The model consists of the 2-D unsteady Euler equations in axial-symmetric coordinates and an appropriate equation of state for oil. The main topic of the paper is

Intra- and interobserver reliability and intra-catheter reproducibility using frequency domain optical coherence tomography for the evaluation of morphometric stent parameters and qualitative assessment of stent strut coverage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Antonsen, Lisbeth; Thayssen, Per; Junker, Anders

2015-01-01

to investigate the intra- and interobserver reliability, as well as the intra-catheter reproducibility of quantitative FD-OCT-assessment of morphometric stent parameters and qualitative FD-OCT-evaluation of strut coverage in 10 randomly selected 6-month follow-up Nobori® biolimus-eluting stents (N-BESs). METHODS...... in another 10 N-BESs (219 CSAs and 1860 struts) were independently assessed by one of the analysts. RESULTS: The intraobserver variability with regard to relative difference of mean luminal area and mean stent area at the CSA-level was very low: 0.1%±1.4% and 0.5%±3.2%. Interobserver variability also proved...... (CI): 0.88-0.93, pstented coronary segments, and for qualitative assessment of strut coverage....

The deforestation problem in oil-importing developing countries: A capital theory approach to a renewable resource

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez, A.E.

1991-01-01

This study attempts an analysis of the effects of a crude-oil price shock on the tropical rain-forest biomass of oil-importing developing countries. It establishes the logical plausibility of this relationship between price shocks and deforestation by developing a stylized capital-theoretic intertemporal model with a trade constraint. This formulation allows one to determine the correct price path at each moment in time, an efficiency consideration. A second theoretical model purports to show that justification for the building of high dams as a response to energy shocks was based on myopic expectations of crude oil supplier behavior. Once rational supplier response to natural capital stocks is taken into consideration, a different result emerges suggesting a much larger optical biomass stock. Noting that deforestation is an externality with global repercussions and appealing to the logic of the Folk Theorem of game theory, the last chapter proposes an international collaborative effort whereby concerned nations would supply crude oil to oil-importing developing countries that have witnessed the deterioration of their forest biomass as a direct or indirect consequence of oil price shocks

Do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system? Evidence of imported crude by China and India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong Li; Lin Xiaowen, Sharon

2011-01-01

This paper provides empirical evidence on the changing structure of world oil price system by identifying an additional driver-emerging market factor. We choose China and India as a representative of emerging markets to examine if the quantity of crude oil imported by China and India is significant in the existing oil pricing system (. Our data starts from January 2002 and ends in March 2010, which includes the oil shock of 2007-2008. We utilize cointegration and error correction model framework developed by and in the analysis. Our results indicate that demand from emerging markets has become a significant factor in the world oil pricing system since 2003. This result is significant as it lends empirical support to the widely held conjecture that the oil shock of 2007-2008 is a demand-led shock (). Our result also has significant policy implications that go beyond the oil shock. The emerging market factor is there to stay and reflects the changing power between emerging and developed economies in the world economic system as a result of decades of fast economic development in the former. It will certainly influence policy issues related to oil and beyond. - Highlights: → We test the existing oil price modelling with data from 2002-2010. → We find evidence of structural breaks in the world oil pricing model. → We find that emerging market factor is a new driver in the world oil pricing system since 2003. → The emerging market factor lends empirical support to 'consumption-led' conjecture of oil shock. → New factor reflects significant changes of oil demand landscape following shifting economic power.

World crude oil and natural gas. A demand and supply model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krichene, Noureddine

2002-01-01

This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918-1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies

Ununited fracture neck of femur treated with closed reduction and internal fixation with cancellous screw and fibular strut graft

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Singh Daria

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Ununited fracture neck of femur in young adults has been tackled in various ways. Methods: Twenty five patients of ununited fracture neck of femur in age group 21-55 years were treated by closed reduction, cancellous screw fixation and fibular strut graft and followed up for 2-6 years. Time gap between injury and operation was 6 weeks to 58 weeks. Five cases were previously fixed with various fixation devices. Results: Osseous union was achieved in 24 cases with average time of 18.16 weeks. Main complication encountered in follow-up was avascular necrosis of femoral head, others were joint stiffness and shortening. Functional end results were good to excellent in 24 cases. Conclusion: Closed reduction with internal fixation by cancellous screw and fibular strut grafting is easy and useful procedure.

Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cologni, Alessandro; Manera, Matteo

2008-01-01

Sharp increases in the price of oil are generally seen as a major contributor to business cycle asymmetries. Moreover, the very recent highs registered in the world oil market are causing concern about possible slowdowns in the economic performance of the most developed countries. In this paper a structural cointegrated VAR model has been considered for the G-7 countries in order to study the direct effects of oil price shocks on output and prices, and the reaction of monetary variables to external shocks. Our results can be summarized as follows: i) a stationary money demand, as suggested by the classic theory of money, can be identified for most countries; ii) according to the estimated coefficients of the structural part of the model, for all countries except Japan and U.K. the null hypothesis of an influence of oil prices on the inflation rate cannot be rejected. Inflation rate shocks are transmitted to the real economy by increasing interest rates; iii) impulse response analysis suggests, for most countries, the existence of an instantaneous, temporary effect of oil price innovations on prices; iv) impulse response functions indicate different monetary policy reactions to inflationary and growth shocks; v) the simulation exercises directed to estimate the total impact of the 1990 oil price shock indicate that for some countries (U.S.) a significant part of the effects of the oil price shock is due to the monetary policy reaction function. For other countries (Canada, France and Italy), however, the total impact is offset, at least in part, by an easing of monetary conditions. (author)

棕榈油供给冲击与国内植物油价格波动的动态关系分析%Dynamic relationship analysis between palm oil supply shocks and domestic vegetable oil prices volatility

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

刘锐金; 王成丽

2017-01-01

[Objective]In this paper, the interaction between palm oil supply and prices of major domestic vegetable oils was analyzed, and supply reaction of palm oil under positive and negative shocks of prices was studied, as as to provide theoretical references for palm oil import management. [Method]The interaction between supply and price was assessed un-der the framework of co-integration-GARCH and error correction-GARCH models using monthly palm oil imports , spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and spot price of Malaysian palm oil. Linear and nonlinear Granger test was conducted for robustness check. [Result]Chinese palm oil processing manufacturers and traders preferred to rely on variance information accumulated in the past long period (ARCH effect), rather than a prediction variance (GARCH ef-fect). Compared to rapeseed oil, soybean oil had much stronger adjusting force on palm oil. The shock of palm oil supply weakly affected the prices. The signal of price changes with two lags had asymmetric impact on supply of palm oil. There existed no Granger causal relation between supply and price of palm oil. [Suggestion]Palm oil import management, marketing building and inventory monitor should be enhance, and researches on international pricing mechanism of palm oil need to be deepened.%[目的]分析棕榈油供给量与国内主要植物油价格的互动关系,以及对于来自价格正、负向冲击下棕榈油的供给反应,为棕榈油进口管理提供理论依据.[方法]利用我国棕榈油月度进口量、棕榈油、豆油、菜籽油现货价格及马来西亚毛棕榈油现货价格数据,在协整-GARCH、误差修正-GARCH框架下进行估计分析,研究供给量与价格间的互动关系,并用线性和非线性Granger因果检验进行稳健性检验.[结�

Macro policy responses to oil booms and busts in the United Arab Emirates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Mutawa, A.K.

1991-01-01

The effects of oil shocks and macro policy changes in the United Arab Emirates are analyzed. A theoretical model is developed within the framework of the Dutch Disease literature. It contains four unique features that are applicable to the United Arab Emirates' economy. There are: (1) the presence of a large foreign labor force; (2) OPEC's oil export quotas; (3) the division of oil profits; and (4) the important role of government expenditures. The model is then used to examine the welfare effects of the above-mentioned shocks. An econometric model is then specified that conforms to the analytical model. In the econometric model the method of 'principal components' is applied owing to the undersized sample data. The principal components methodology is used in both the identification testing and the estimation of the structural equations. The oil and macro policy shocks are then simulated. The simulation results show that an oil-quantity boom leads to a higher welfare gain than an oil-price boom. Under certain circumstances, this finding is also confirmed by the comparative statistics that follow from the analytical model

The Björk-Shiley 70 degree convexo-concave prosthesis strut fracture problem (present state of information).

Science.gov (United States)

Ostermeyer, J; Horstkotte, D; Bennett, J; Huysmans, H; Lindblom, D; Olin, C; Orinius, E; Semb, G

1987-04-01

Between June 1980 and June 1983 4028 Björk-Shiley 70 degree convexo-concave prosthetic heart valves were distributed and implanted in Australia, Canada, Europe and South Africa. As of March 1986, a total of 52 outlet strut fractures (1.29%; 70% CL: 1.1%-1.5%) have been reported from 29 implant institutions in 12 countries. The majority (82.7%) occurred in Europe. Intervals between implantation and fracture were 13 days to 45.3 months (mean: 18.4 months; 70% CL: 16.6 months-20.1 months). The mortality rate after strut fracture was 78.7% (70% CL: 72.5%-84.9%). Upon stratification of the fracture by valve sizes and types it becomes evident that 75% (70% CL: 68.8%-81.2%) of all fractures are related to the sizes 29 mm to 33 mm (which virtually represent the same valve size) and predominantly to mitral valves (p less than 0.01). The large valves again have been stratified into two subsets, namely those fabricated from flanges originally machined as Björk-Shiley 60 degree convexo-concave valves (group I) and later produced valves machined initially to 70 degree specifications (group II). In group I the fracture rate was 5.2% (70% CL: 4.2%-6.2%) versus 1.6% (70% CL: 1.1%-2.1%) in group II (p less than 0.01), which identifies the group I 29 mm-33 mm Björk-Shiley 70 degree convexo-concave valves as the highest risk group for strut fracture. The rates are based upon all available information as of March 16, 1986.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Explaining crude oil prices using fundamental measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coleman, Les

2012-01-01

Oil is the world's most important commodity, and improving the understanding of drivers of its price is a longstanding research objective. This article analyses real oil prices during 1984–2007 using a monthly dataset of fundamental and market parameters that cover financial markets, global economic growth, demand and supply of oil, and geopolitical measures. The innovation is to incorporate proxies for speculative and terrorist activity and dummies for major industry events, and quantify price impacts of each. New findings are positive links between oil prices and speculative activity, bond yields, an interaction term incorporating OPEC market share and OECD import dependence, and the number of US troops and frequency of terrorist attacks in the Middle East. Shocks also prove significant with a $6–18 per barrel impact on price for several months. - Highlights: ► Article introduces new variables to the study of oil prices. ► New variables are terrorist incidents and military activity, and oil futures market size. ► Shocks prove important affecting prices by $6–18 per barrel for several months. ► OPEC market influence rises with OECD import dependence.

The indications and donor-site morbidity of tibial cortical strut autografts in the management of defects in long bones.

Science.gov (United States)

Lauthe, O; Soubeyrand, M; Babinet, A; Dumaine, V; Anract, P; Biau, D J

2018-05-01

Aims The primary aim of this study was to determine the morbidity of a tibial strut autograft and characterize the rate of bony union following its use. Patients and Methods We retrospectively assessed a series of 104 patients from a single centre who were treated with a tibial strut autograft of > 5 cm in length. A total of 30 had a segmental reconstruction with continuity of bone, 27 had a segmental reconstruction without continuity of bone, 29 had an arthrodesis and 18 had a nonunion. Donor-site morbidity was defined as any event that required a modification of the postoperative management. Union was assessed clinically and radiologically at a median of 36 months (IQR, 14 to 74). Results Donor-site morbidity occurred in four patients (4%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1 to 10). One patient had a stress fracture of the tibia, which healed with a varus deformity, requiring an osteotomy. Two patients required evacuation of a haematoma and one developed anterior compartment syndrome which required fasciotomies. The cumulative probability of union was 90% (95% CI 80 to 96) at five years. The type of reconstruction (p = 0.018), continuity of bone (p = 0.006) and length of tibial graft (p = 0.037) were associated with the time to union. Conclusion The tibial strut autograft has a low risk of morbidity and provides adequate bone stock for treating various defects of long bones. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:667-74.

World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krichene, N.

2002-01-01

This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918-1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies. (author)

Compression and contact area of anterior strut grafts in spinal instrumentation: a biomechanical study.

Science.gov (United States)

Pizanis, Antonius; Holstein, Jörg H; Vossen, Felix; Burkhardt, Markus; Pohlemann, Tim

2013-08-26

Anterior bone grafts are used as struts to reconstruct the anterior column of the spine in kyphosis or following injury. An incomplete fusion can lead to later correction losses and compromise further healing. Despite the different stabilizing techniques that have evolved, from posterior or anterior fixating implants to combined anterior/posterior instrumentation, graft pseudarthrosis rates remain an important concern. Furthermore, the need for additional anterior implant fixation is still controversial. In this bench-top study, we focused on the graft-bone interface under various conditions, using two simulated spinal injury models and common surgical fixation techniques to investigate the effect of implant-mediated compression and contact on the anterior graft. Calf spines were stabilised with posterior internal fixators. The wooden blocks as substitutes for strut grafts were impacted using a "pressfit" technique and pressure-sensitive films placed at the interface between the vertebral bone and the graft to record the compression force and the contact area with various stabilization techniques. Compression was achieved either with posterior internal fixator alone or with an additional anterior implant. The importance of concomitant ligament damage was also considered using two simulated injury models: pure compression Magerl/AO fracture type A or rotation/translation fracture type C models. In type A injury models, 1 mm-oversized grafts for impaction grafting provided good compression and fair contact areas that were both markedly increased by the use of additional compressing anterior rods or by shortening the posterior fixator construct. Anterior instrumentation by itself had similar effects. For type C injuries, dramatic differences were observed between the techniques, as there was a net decrease in compression and an inadequate contact on the graft occurred in this model. Under these circumstances, both compression and the contact area on graft could only

Oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henriques, Irene; Sadorsky, Perry

2008-01-01

Energy security issues coupled with increased concern over the natural environment are driving factors behind oil price movements. While it is widely accepted that rising oil prices are good for the financial performance of alternative energy companies, there has been relatively little statistical work done to measure just how sensitive the financial performance of alternative energy companies are to changes in oil prices. In this paper, a four variable vector autoregression model is developed and estimated in order to investigate the empirical relationship between alternative energy stock prices, technology stock prices, oil prices, and interest rates. Our results show technology stock prices and oil prices each individually Granger cause the stock prices of alternative energy companies. Simulation results show that a shock to technology stock prices has a larger impact on alternative energy stock prices than does a shock to oil prices. These results should be of use to investors, managers and policy makers. (author)

Have oil and gas prices got separated?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erdős, Péter

2012-01-01

This paper applies vector error correction models that show that oil and natural gas prices decoupled around 2009. Before 2009, US and UK gas prices had a long-term equilibrium with crude prices to which gas prices always reverted after exogenous shocks. Both US and UK gas prices adjusted to the crude oil price individually, and departure from the equilibrium gas price on one continent resulted in a similar departure on the other. After an exogenous shock, the adjustment between US and UK gas prices took approximately 20 weeks on average, and the convergence was mediated mainly by crude oil with a necessary condition that arbitrage across the Atlantic was possible. After 2009, however, the UK gas price has remained integrated with oil price, but the US gas price decoupled from crude oil price and the European gas price, as the Atlantic arbitrage has halted. The oversupply from shale gas production has not been mitigated by North American export, as there has been no liquefying and export capacity. - Highlights: ► VEC models are applied to investigate the relationship between oil and natural gas prices. ► While natural gas prices in Europe and Asia react to oil price, US gas price decoupled from oil in 2009. ► Since 2009, the US gas price has decoupled from the European and Asian gas prices.

The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Statoil

OpenAIRE

Johannessen, Frida; Skjelvik, Karina

2017-01-01

Master's thesis in Finance PROBLEM STATEMENT How do oil price movements impact Statoil ASA? RESEARCH QUESTIONS Do oil price fluctuations have an explainable effect on Statoil’s capital expenditures and operating expenditures? Do oil price fluctuations have an explainable effect on Statoil’s share price? ANALYSIS To analyse the impact of oil price shocks, Ordinary Least Squares regression has been employed for two separate time periods. First, the period from Q4...

Oil price pass-through into inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Shiu-Sheng

2009-01-01

This paper uses data from 19 industrialized countries to investigate oil price pass-through into inflation across countries and over time. A time-varying pass-through coefficient is estimated and the determinants of the recent declining effects of oil shocks on inflation are investigated. The appreciation of the domestic currency, a more active monetary policy in response to inflation, and a higher degree of trade openness are found to explain the decline in oil price pass-through. (author)

Ignition and Flame Stabilization of a Strut-Jet RBCC Combustor with Small Rocket Exhaust

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jichao Hu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A Rocket Based Combined Cycle combustor model is tested at a ground direct connected rig to investigate the flame holding characteristics with a small rocket exhaust using liquid kerosene. The total temperature and the Mach number of the vitiated air flow, at exit of the nozzle are 1505 K and 2.6, respectively. The rocket base is embedded in a fuel injecting strut and mounted in the center of the combustor. The wall of the combustor is flush, without any reward step or cavity, so the strut-jet is used to make sure of the flame stabilization of the second combustion. Mass flow rate of the kerosene and oxygen injected into the rocket is set to be a small value, below 10% of the total fuel when the equivalence ratio of the second combustion is 1. The experiment has generated two different kinds of rocket exhaust: fuel rich and pure oxygen. Experiment result has shown that, with a relative small total mass flow rate of the rocket, the fuel rich rocket plume is not suitable for ignition and flame stabilization, while an oxygen plume condition is suitable. Then the paper conducts a series of experiments to investigate the combustion characteristics under this oxygen pilot method and found that the flame stabilization characteristics are different at different combustion modes.

Shock interaction with a two-gas interface in a novel dual-driver shock tube

Science.gov (United States)

Labenski, John R.

Fluid instabilities exist at the interface between two fluids having different densities if the flow velocity and density gradient are anti-parallel or if a shock wave crosses the boundary. The former case is called the Rayleigh-Taylor (R-T) instability and the latter, the Richtmyer-Meshkov (R-M) instability. Small initial perturbations on the interface destabilize and grow into larger amplitude structures leading to turbulent mixing. Instabilities of this type are seen in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments, laser produced plasmas, supernova explosions, and detonations. A novel dual-driver shock tube was used to investigate the growth rate of the R-M instability. One driver is used to create an argon-refrigerant interface, and the other at the opposite end of the driven section generates a shock to force the interface with compressible flows behind the shock. The refrigerant gas in the first driver is seeded with sub-micron oil droplets for visualization of the interface. The interface travels down the driven section past the test section for a fixed amount of time. A stronger shock of Mach 1.1 to 1.3 drives the interface back past the test section where flow diagnostics are positioned. Two schlieren systems record the density fluctuations while light scattering detectors record the density of the refrigerant as a function of position over the interface. A pair of digital cameras take stereo images of the interface, as mapped out by the tracer particles under illumination by a Q-switched ruby laser. The amount of time that the interface is allowed to travel up the driven section determines the interaction time as a control. Comparisons made between the schlieren signals, light scattering detector outputs, and the images quantify the fingered characteristics of the interface and its growth due to shock forcing. The results show that the interface has a distribution of thickness and that the interaction with a shock further broadens the interface. The

The impacts of oil price fluctuations on the economy of sub-Saharan African countries, importers of oil products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sacko, I.

1997-01-01

This work comprises three parts. The first part aims at presenting the energy situation of sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries grouped in five regions. Because of the demographic pressure and of the petroleum shocks, the commercial energy consumption is growing up rapidly and the energy prices are high for the end-users (because the energy is imported and paid in dollars, and the fiscality share is increased by governments in the case of prices drop in the international market). The important problem of wood fuel is considered, together with the energy-economic growth relations and the determining factors of the energy demand in SSA. Some econometric relations are tested. The second part analyzes the mechanisms generated by petroleum shocks and counter-shocks, and stresses first on the transfers induced by these fluctuations. Then, it presents some macro-economical models which try to integrate the effects of a petroleum shock and makes some calculations based on a decomposition of imports and exports global and partial coefficients. Some important conclusions are inferred from this study: 1 - the second petroleum shock strikes more seriously the oil importing SSA countries because they do not benefit from a favorable international context, like during the first shock (also because the second shock is accompanied by a dollar shock); 2 - the absence of symmetry in oil shocks-counter-shocks; 3 - the crisis of SSA countries is not only of petroleum origin but is also linked with the drop of the export incomes (which itself is partially explained by the impact of petroleum shocks on the industrialized economies), with their bad insertion in the world economy, and with unsuitable domestic economies. The third part proposes some solutions to attenuate the energy and economical difficulties of these countries. It is necessary to implement an energy planning mainly based on the mastery of the demand and on a better management of local resources. The policies of

Determination of Strain Rate Sensitivity of Micro-struts Manufactured Using the Selective Laser Melting Method

Science.gov (United States)

Gümrük, Recep; Mines, R. A. W.; Karadeniz, Sami

2018-03-01

Micro-lattice structures manufactured using the selective laser melting (SLM) process provides the opportunity to realize optimal cellular materials for impact energy absorption. In this paper, strain rate-dependent material properties are measured for stainless steel 316L SLM micro-lattice struts in the strain rate range of 10-3 to 6000 s-1. At high strain rates, a novel version of the split Hopkinson Bar has been developed. Strain rate-dependent materials data have been used in Cowper-Symonds material model, and the scope and limit of this model in the context of SLM struts have been discussed. Strain rate material data and the Cowper-Symonds model have been applied to the finite element analysis of a micro-lattice block subjected to drop weight impact loading. The model output has been compared to experimental results, and it has been shown that the increase in crush stress due to impact loading is mainly the result of strain rate material behavior. Hence, a systematic methodology has been developed to investigate the impact energy absorption of a micro-lattice structure manufactured using additive layer manufacture (SLM). This methodology can be extended to other micro-lattice materials and configurations, and to other impact conditions.

Interaction of a conical shock wave with a turbulent boundary layer

Science.gov (United States)

Teh, S. L.; Gai, S. L.

The paper reports an investigation on the interaction of an incident conical shock wave with a turbulent boundary layer. Although a conical shock theoretically creates a hyperbolic shock trace on the flat plate, the line joining all the experimental interaction origins takes a different form due to varying upstream influence. The existence of strong pressure gradients in the spanwise direction after the shock leads to the boundary-layer twist. A model based on the upstream influence of the shock when combined with McCabe's secondary-flow theory showed separation to occur at an external flow deflection of 11.8 deg. The oil flow measurements however show this to occur at 9.2 deg. This discrepancy is of the same order as that found by McCabe. Detailed data involving Schlieren and shadowgraph photography, surface-flow visualization, and surface-pressure measurements are presented.

A new paradigm for oil?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noel, P.

2004-09-01

The author takes stock on the dynamic of the oil system. He shows how the economic laws can be applied to the petroleum market and analyzes the effects of the prices evolution. The creeping oil shock of 2003-2004 has proven less disruptive than one may have anticipated. Commodity cycles on the one hand the shaky management of marginal supply by OPEC on the other hand, are very likely to create ample prices swings with little relations, if any, to the actual scarcity-or lack thereof-of oil resources. (A.L.B.)

Comparison of Tongue-in-Groove and Columellar Strut on Rotation and Projection in Droopy Nasal Tip: Contribution of a Cap Graft.

Science.gov (United States)

Demir, Uygar Levent

2018-05-01

Underrotation of the nasal tip with narrow nasolabial angle is a common nasal deformity that leads to a long nose appearance, named drooping nose. In these patients, there are various techniques described to correct droopy tip and to achieve a desirable nasal tip rotation such as lateral crural steal, lateral crural overlay, tongue-ingroove, columellar strut graft, tip rotation sutures, cephalic trimming, and others. In this study, the effects of tongue-in-groove (TIG) and columellar strut graft (CS) and the contribution of cap graft on nasal tip rotation and projection were evaluated. Twenty-eight consecutive patients who underwent open approach rhinoplasty by the same senior author (ULD) between January 2015 and December 2016 with the diagnosis of septonasal deformity and droopy nasal tip were included. In 9 of these patients nasal tip was constructed with strut graft, in 6 patients with both strut and cap grafts, in 6 patients with TIG technique and in 7 patients with both TIG and cap graft. Standardized right lateral images were taken preoperatively and 6 months postoperatively to use for further assessments. The nasal tip rotation was evaluated by measuring nasolabial angle (NLA) and the nasal projection (NP) was evaluated by using the Goode method. Finally, the postoperative values of NLA and NP at the 6th month were compared with preoperative recorded values in between groups. Each group showed increase at nasal projection; however, significance was present only in CS graft and TIG groups (P=0.011 and P=0.027 relatively). Each 4 groups showed significant increase in nasal tip rotation. In addition, the comparison of percent changes between preoperative and postoperative NP and NLA revealed no difference (P=0.56 and P=0.431 relatively). In conclusion, the authors argued that TIG and CS graft techniques are both reliable methods to correct droopy nasal tip and using additional cap graft over dome area when required is safe and useful.

Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atil, Ahmed; Lahiani, Amine; Nguyen, Duc Khuong

2014-01-01

In this article, we use the recently developed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to examine the pass-through of crude oil prices into gasoline and natural gas prices. Our approach allows us to simultaneously test the short- and long-run nonlinearities through positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the predetermined explanatory variables. It also offers the possibility to quantify the respective responses of gasoline and natural gas prices to positive and negative oil price shocks from the asymmetric dynamic multipliers. The obtained results indicate that oil prices affect gasoline prices and natural gas prices in an asymmetric and nonlinear manner, but the price transmission mechanism is not the same. Important policy implications can be learned from the empirical findings. - Highlights: • The pass-through of crude oil prices into gasoline and natural gas prices is examined. • We use a NARDL model to test for the long-run and short-run asymmetric reactions. • Both gasoline and natural gas prices significantly adjust to changes in the price of oil. • Negative oil shocks have greater effects than positive oil shocks. • Policy implications are discussed

Oil prices in a new light

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fesharaki, F.

1994-01-01

For a clear picture of how oil prices develop, the author steps away from the price levels to which the world is accustomed, and evaluates scientifically. What makes prices jump from one notch to another? The move results from a political or economic shock or the perception of a particular position by the futures market and the media. The shock could range from a war or an assassination to a promise of cooperation among OPEC members (when believed by the market) or to speculation about another failure at an OPEC meeting. In the oil market, only a couple of factual figures can provide a floor to the price of oil. The cost of production of oil in the Gulf is around $2 to $3/bbl, and the cost of production of oil (capital and operating costs) in key non-OPEC areas is well under $10/bbl. With some adjustments for transport and quality, a price range of $13/bbl to $16/bbl would correspond to a reasonable sustainable floor price. The reason for prices above the floor price has been a continuous fear of oil supply interruptions. That fear kept prices above the floor price for many years. The fear factor has now almost fully disappeared. The market has gone through the drama of the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraq war, the tanker war, the invasion of Kuwait, and the expulsions of the Iraqis. And still the oil flowed -- all the time. It has become abundantly clear that fears above the oil market were unjustified. Everyone needs to export oil, and oil will flow under the worst circumstances. The demise of the fear factor means that oil prices tend toward the floor price for a prolonged period

Oil price uncertainty in Canada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elder, John [Department of Finance and Real Estate, 1272 Campus Delivery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (United States); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

2009-11-15

Bernanke [Bernanke, Ben S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1983), 85-106.] shows how uncertainty about energy prices may induce optimizing firms to postpone investment decisions, thereby leading to a decline in aggregate output. Elder and Serletis [Elder, John and Serletis, Apostolos. Oil price uncertainty.] find empirical evidence that uncertainty about oil prices has tended to depress investment in the United States. In this paper we assess the robustness of these results by investigating the effects of oil price uncertainty in Canada. Our results are remarkably similar to existing results for the United States, providing additional evidence that uncertainty about oil prices may provide another explanation for why the sharp oil price declines of 1985 failed to produce rapid output growth. Impulse-response analysis suggests that uncertainty about oil prices may tend to reinforce the negative response of output to positive oil shocks. (author)

Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Xin

Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

Oil price reduction impacts on the Iranian economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdollah Mahmoodi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available economy. In order to simulate this shock, the global trade analysis project (GTAP model with its data done by using. In the new created data aggregation, oil exporting in Iran and the rest of the world countries as economic new regions, ten new economic sectors have been created, among which the oil is introduced as one sector as well as five endowments. The standard economic closure was changed, and decline in world oil price was simulated in model as a policy shock. The results show that oil export revenue and the mineral commodity export earnings will decrease, but other production sectors’ exports will increase. The trade balance of Iran will be affected negatively and strongly. Also, oil and other services production decreased. In the production sectors’ market, the demand for labor, natural resources, and investment decreased dramatically, and the demand for land increased. Using equivalent variation (EV, changes in Iran’s welfare is high negative. Finally, deflation, reduction in value and quantity of GDP and changes in consumption combination from public to private sector are the other economic impacts of reduction in oil price on Iran’s economic. It is suggested that future studies are done using dynamic models and up-to-date data. In addition, policy makers need to rebound internationally and within OPEC to raise oil prices.

Nonlinear mode interaction in equal-leg angle struts susceptible to cellular buckling.

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, L; Wang, F; Wadee, M A; Yang, J

2017-11-01

A variational model that describes the interactive buckling of a thin-walled equal-leg angle strut under pure axial compression is presented. A formulation combining the Rayleigh-Ritz method and continuous displacement functions is used to derive a system of differential and integral equilibrium equations for the structural component. Solving the equations using numerical continuation reveals progressive cellular buckling (or snaking) arising from the nonlinear interaction between the weak-axis flexural buckling mode and the strong-axis flexural-torsional buckling mode for the first time-the resulting behaviour being highly unstable. Physical experiments conducted on 10 cold-formed steel specimens are presented and the results show good agreement with the variational model.

Free fibular strut graft in neglected femoral neck fractures in adult

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Azam Md Quamar

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Neglected femoral neck fracture in adults still poses a formidable challenge. Existing treatment options varies from osteotomy (with or without graft to osteosynthesis using various implants and grafting techniques (muscle pedicle, vascularized, and nonvascularized fibula. The aim of this study was to assess outcome of nonvascularized fibular strut graft and cancellous screw fixation in neglected femoral neck fractures in the younger age group. Materials and Methods: Medical records of 32 patients of neglected femoral neck fracture, in the age group of 22-45 years (mean 37.8 years, operated between May 1994 to December 2001, were retrospectively reviewed. After the application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, 28 patients having three years minimum follow-up (mean 4.6 years were included. Delay between injury and operation varied from four weeks to 42 weeks (mean 16.4 weeks. Closed reduction was achieved in 17 patients; open reduction through Watson-Jones anterolateral approach was performed in the remaining 15 patients in whom closed reduction failed. The fracture was transfixed with three parallel guide wires. Appropriate sized cannulated lag screw (7 mm was then inserted in two of the wires. Selection of the third guide wire for fibula depended on the space available in both anteroposterior and lateral view. Results: Satisfactory bony union was obtained in 25 patients, of whom in four cases, the union occurred in 10-20° (mean 15° of varus. Nonunion occurred in three patients (9.37%, and aseptic necrosis occurred in another six patients (18.75%. Of the 25 patients where union was achieved, five patients showed excellent results; 14 good and six had poor functional result, as evaluated using modified Anglen criteria. Conclusion: Nonvascularized fibular strut graft along with cancellous screws provides a dependable and technically less-demanding alternative procedure for neglected femoral neck fractures in young adults. Fibula

Intra- and interobserver reliability and intra-catheter reproducibility using frequency domain optical coherence tomography for the evaluation of morphometric stent parameters and qualitative assessment of stent strut coverage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antonsen, Lisbeth; Thayssen, Per; Junker, Anders; Veien, Karsten Tange; Hansen, Henrik Steen; Hansen, Knud Nørregaard; Hougaard, Mikkel; Jensen, Lisette Okkels

2015-01-01

Purpose: Frequency-domain optical coherence tomography (FD-OCT) is a high-resolution imaging tool (~ 10–15 μm), which enables near-histological in-vivo images of the coronary vessel wall. The use of the technique is increasing, both for research- and clinical purposes. This study sought to investigate the intra- and interobserver reliability, as well as the intra-catheter reproducibility of quantitative FD-OCT-assessment of morphometric stent parameters and qualitative FD-OCT-evaluation of strut coverage in 10 randomly selected 6-month follow-up Nobori® biolimus-eluting stents (N-BESs). Methods: Ten N-BESs (213 cross sectional areas (CSAs) and 1897 struts) imaged with OCT 6 months post-implantation were randomly selected and analyzed by 2 experienced analysts, and the same 10 N-BESs were analyzed by one of the analysts 3 months later. Further, 2 consecutive pullbacks randomly performed in another 10 N-BESs (219 CSAs and 1860 struts) were independently assessed by one of the analysts. Results: The intraobserver variability with regard to relative difference of mean luminal area and mean stent area at the CSA-level was very low: 0.1% ± 1.4% and 0.5% ± 3.2%. Interobserver variability also proved to be low: − 2.1% ± 3.3% and 2.1% ± 4.6%, and moreover, very restricted intra-catheter variation was observed: 0.02% ± 6.8% and − 0.18% ± 5.2%. The intraobserver-, interobserver- and intra-catheter reliability for the qualitative evaluation of strut coverage was found to be: kappa (κ) = 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–0.93, p < 0.01), κ = 0.88 (95% CI: 0.85–0.91, p < 0.01), and κ = 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68–0.78, p < 0.01), respectively. Conclusions: FD-OCT is a reproducible and reliable imaging tool for quantitative evaluation of stented coronary segments, and for qualitative assessment of strut coverage. - Highlights: • Frequency-domain optical coherence tomography (FD-OCT) is increasingly adopted in the catherization laboratories. • This

Intra- and interobserver reliability and intra-catheter reproducibility using frequency domain optical coherence tomography for the evaluation of morphometric stent parameters and qualitative assessment of stent strut coverage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Antonsen, Lisbeth, E-mail: Lisbeth.antonsen@rsyd.dk; Thayssen, Per; Junker, Anders; Veien, Karsten Tange; Hansen, Henrik Steen; Hansen, Knud Nørregaard; Hougaard, Mikkel; Jensen, Lisette Okkels

2015-12-15

Purpose: Frequency-domain optical coherence tomography (FD-OCT) is a high-resolution imaging tool (~ 10–15 μm), which enables near-histological in-vivo images of the coronary vessel wall. The use of the technique is increasing, both for research- and clinical purposes. This study sought to investigate the intra- and interobserver reliability, as well as the intra-catheter reproducibility of quantitative FD-OCT-assessment of morphometric stent parameters and qualitative FD-OCT-evaluation of strut coverage in 10 randomly selected 6-month follow-up Nobori® biolimus-eluting stents (N-BESs). Methods: Ten N-BESs (213 cross sectional areas (CSAs) and 1897 struts) imaged with OCT 6 months post-implantation were randomly selected and analyzed by 2 experienced analysts, and the same 10 N-BESs were analyzed by one of the analysts 3 months later. Further, 2 consecutive pullbacks randomly performed in another 10 N-BESs (219 CSAs and 1860 struts) were independently assessed by one of the analysts. Results: The intraobserver variability with regard to relative difference of mean luminal area and mean stent area at the CSA-level was very low: 0.1% ± 1.4% and 0.5% ± 3.2%. Interobserver variability also proved to be low: − 2.1% ± 3.3% and 2.1% ± 4.6%, and moreover, very restricted intra-catheter variation was observed: 0.02% ± 6.8% and − 0.18% ± 5.2%. The intraobserver-, interobserver- and intra-catheter reliability for the qualitative evaluation of strut coverage was found to be: kappa (κ) = 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–0.93, p < 0.01), κ = 0.88 (95% CI: 0.85–0.91, p < 0.01), and κ = 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68–0.78, p < 0.01), respectively. Conclusions: FD-OCT is a reproducible and reliable imaging tool for quantitative evaluation of stented coronary segments, and for qualitative assessment of strut coverage. - Highlights: • Frequency-domain optical coherence tomography (FD-OCT) is increasingly adopted in the catherization laboratories. • This

Measuring resilience to energy shocks

OpenAIRE

Molyneaux, Lynette; Brown, Colin; Foster, John; Wagner, Liam

2015-01-01

Measuring energy security or resilience in energy is, in the main, confined to indicators which are used for comparative purposes or to show trends rather than provide empirical evidence of resilience to unpredicted crises. In this paper, the electricity systems of the individual states within the United States of America are analysed for their response to the 1973-1982 and the 2003-2012 oil price shocks. Empirical evidence is sought for elements which are present in systems that experience r...

OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy

OpenAIRE

Ratti, Ronald A.; Vespignani, Joaquin L.

2014-01-01

Hamilton identifies 1973 to 1996 as “the age of OPEC” and 1997 to the present as “a new industrial age.” During 1974-1996 growth in non-OPEC oil production Granger causes growth in OPEC oil production. OPEC oil production decreases significantly with positive shocks to non-OPEC oil production in the earlier period, but does not do so in the “new industrial age”. In the “new industrial age” OPEC oil production rises significantly with an increase in oil prices, unlike during “the age of OPEC” ...

The oil price and non-OPEC supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seymour, A.

1990-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine in detail a major supply development - that of non-OPEC oil in the 1970s and 1980s - in order to determine whether a part, if any, of the increase in non-OPEC production after the price shocks was unambiguously due to decisions and developments that preceded the price shocks. This 'historical' approach which examines facts in detail and in their exact chronology enables us to disaggregate the increase in non-OPEC production into two parts; one that is totally independent of the price shocks and one that could not be said in all certainty to have been influenced by the price rise. This study thus provides a maximalist answer to the question: 'How much of the increase is non-OPEC supplies was due to the price shocks?' Our main finding however is that the maximum amount that can be attributed to the price rise is but a fraction of the total supply increase. As a foundation on which to generalize on the effect of the oil price shocks on non-OPEC supplies as a whole, case studies on eighteen non-OPEC producers are presented. These are: the UK, Norway, Egypt, Mexico, Angola, Cameron, the Congo, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Australia, India, the Federation of Malaysia, Oman, the USA, Canada, the USSR and China. Together, these countries have accounted for over 90% of total cumulative non-OPEC supply between 1974 and 1987, inclusive. (author)

Fracture and embolization of a Celect inferior vena cava filter strut to the liver: A Case Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, So Hee; Song, Yun Gyu [Dept. of Radiology, Samsung Changwon Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Changwon (Korea, Republic of)

2017-07-15

Inferior vena cava (IVC) filters are typically used for prophylaxis against pulmonary embolism. A new version of the Günther Tulip filter, the Celect IVC filter was introduced in April 2007. To the best of our knowledge, there are no reports commenting on Celect IVC filter fracture and fragment embolization to liver. We report a case in which the strut of the Celect IVC filter embolized to the liver.

Fracture and embolization of a Celect inferior vena cava filter strut to the liver: A Case Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, So Hee; Song, Yun Gyu

2017-01-01

Inferior vena cava (IVC) filters are typically used for prophylaxis against pulmonary embolism. A new version of the Günther Tulip filter, the Celect IVC filter was introduced in April 2007. To the best of our knowledge, there are no reports commenting on Celect IVC filter fracture and fragment embolization to liver. We report a case in which the strut of the Celect IVC filter embolized to the liver

Oil price, capital mobility and oil importers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez-Romero, A.

1992-01-01

A three-region, three-commodity general equilibrium model is constructed to explore the impact of OPEC's pricing policies on major macro variables of importer economies. The aim of this paper is to explore general macro characteristics of the trading economies to aid understanding of the world economy response after OPEC I and OPEC II in terms of the evolution of North - South terms of trade, rates of profit and output levels. We support the view of a world economy in a three regions setting, North - South - OPEC. The analysis increases our understanding of why regions respond differently to the same external shock and how from different regimes of capital mobility we should derive alternative policy implications. With the current rise in oil prices, the topic promises to be relevant for some time, although the direction of the shocks has been reserved. (Author)

Central bank policy under significant balance-of-payment shocks and structural shifts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrey Sinyakov

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we analyze a number of monetary and FX policy alternatives using the model of a small open oil-exporting economy hit by severe balance-of-payment shocks, such as those that simultaneously affected the Russian economy in 2014–2015. For our purposes, we modify Romer's (2013 IS-MP general equilibrium model by adding a structure similar to the Russian economy (tradables and oil vs. non-tradables. In the model, we consider an optimal policy mix that includes a floating exchange rate, FX liquidity provision by a central bank and temporary tightening of monetary policy. The flexible exchange rate works as a shock absorber, helping restore aggregate demand and domestic production. If inflation expectations are not anchored, contractionary monetary policy helps to stabilize them. Financial stability risks are addressed by lending FX liquidity to the banking sector.

Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papapetrou, E.

2001-01-01

Using a multivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) approach, this paper attempts to shed light into the dynamic relationship among oil prices, real stock prices, interest rates, real economic activity and employment for Greece. The empirical evidence suggests that oil price changes affect real economic activity and employment. Oil prices are important in explaining stock price movements. Stock returns do not lead to changes in real activity and employment

Oil and monetarism do not mix

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, C

1983-01-01

Monetarist policies, together with the second oil price shock, intensified global economic problems. Monetarism was adopted to prevent a repeat of the rapid inflation following the 1973-1974 oil price increase. The resulting high interest and exchange rates and high unemployment have affected even those countries that didn't convert to monetarism, with developing countries suffering the most. As an oil producer and despite the North Sea resources, the United Kingdom has had an especially bad tradeoff between inflation and growth. A better policy than monetarism would have been accommodation of a short-term inflaction moderated by an effective income policy. (DCK)

Causality Relationship between Crude Oil Variables and Budget Variables in Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Zakaria, Zukarnain; Shamsuddin, Sofian

2017-01-01

As an oil and gas exporter, Malaysia profited from higher world energy prices. However, the fall in oil prices from highs in 2014 significantly affected Malaysia’s government revenue (GR), hence its expenditure since the Malaysian GR still largely depends on oil revenues. Malaysia also has problems with high spending on energy subsidy, shrinking in its net crude oil export, and narrowing the gap between its crude oil production and consumption. Given this scenario, not only shocks in crude oi...

Solving the oil independence problem: Is it possible?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sovacool, Benjamin K.

2007-01-01

As currently discussed in political circles, oil independence is unattainable - lacking coherent meaning and wedding policymakers to the notion that they can never accomplish it. Contrary to this thinking, more than a dozen different sets of technologies and practices could increase domestic supply and reduce demand for oil to the point of making the US functionally independent from oil price shocks. However, achieving this goal demands concerted action to expand and diversify conventional domestic oil supplies, reduce overall demand in the transportation and buildings sector, and continue to develop alternative fuels. If policymakers undertook such actions today, the US could become oil independent by 2030. (author)

14 CFR Appendix C to Part 147 - Airframe Curriculum Subjects

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

...) 25. Assemble aircraft components, including flight control surfaces. (3) 26. Balance, rig, and... landing gear, retraction systems, shock struts, brakes, wheels, tires, and steering systems. b. hydraulic...

Large-Scale Reactive Atomistic Simulation of Shock-induced Initiation Processes in Energetic Materials

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Aidan

2013-06-01

Initiation in energetic materials is fundamentally dependent on the interaction between a host of complex chemical and mechanical processes, occurring on scales ranging from intramolecular vibrations through molecular crystal plasticity up to hydrodynamic phenomena at the mesoscale. A variety of methods (e.g. quantum electronic structure methods (QM), non-reactive classical molecular dynamics (MD), mesoscopic continuum mechanics) exist to study processes occurring on each of these scales in isolation, but cannot describe how these processes interact with each other. In contrast, the ReaxFF reactive force field, implemented in the LAMMPS parallel MD code, allows us to routinely perform multimillion-atom reactive MD simulations of shock-induced initiation in a variety of energetic materials. This is done either by explicitly driving a shock-wave through the structure (NEMD) or by imposing thermodynamic constraints on the collective dynamics of the simulation cell e.g. using the Multiscale Shock Technique (MSST). These MD simulations allow us to directly observe how energy is transferred from the shockwave into other processes, including intramolecular vibrational modes, plastic deformation of the crystal, and hydrodynamic jetting at interfaces. These processes in turn cause thermal excitation of chemical bonds leading to initial chemical reactions, and ultimately to exothermic formation of product species. Results will be presented on the application of this approach to several important energetic materials, including pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) and ammonium nitrate/fuel oil (ANFO). In both cases, we validate the ReaxFF parameterizations against QM and experimental data. For PETN, we observe initiation occurring via different chemical pathways, depending on the shock direction. For PETN containing spherical voids, we observe enhanced sensitivity due to jetting, void collapse, and hotspot formation, with sensitivity increasing with void size. For ANFO, we

Chemical composition and anti-inflammatory properties of the unsaponifiable fraction from awara (Astrocaryum vulgare M.) pulp oil in activated J774 macrophages and in a mice model of endotoxic shock.

Science.gov (United States)

Bony, Emilie; Boudard, Frédéric; Dussossoy, Emilie; Portet, Karine; Brat, Pierre; Giaimis, Jean; Michel, Alain

2012-12-01

Awara (Astrocaryum vulgare M.) pulp oil has been shown to possess anti-inflammatory properties in vivo, and contains an unsaponifiable matter rich in bioactive compounds. This study focused on the ethanolic unsaponifiable fraction (EUF) of awara pulp oil. Its chemical composition has been characterized: carotenoid, phytosterol, and tocopherol contents represent 125.7, 152.6, and 6.8 μg/mg of EUF, respectively. We further evaluated this fraction for anti-inflammatory properties in J774 macrophages activated by lipopolysaccharide (LPS) plus interferon (IFN) γ to understand the biological effects of awara pulp oil. EUF strongly decreased nitric oxide (NO), prostaglandin E(2), tumour necrosis factor (TNF) α, and interleukin (IL) -6 and -10 production in activated J774 cells. Moreover, it inhibited expression of inducible NO synthase and cyclooxygenases-2 in vitro. The anti-inflammatory properties of EUF were also confirmed in vivo by modulation of TNFα, IL-6 and IL-10 serum concentration in an endotoxic shock model. Pre-treatment with awara oil fraction offers promise as a protective means to lower the production of excessive amounts of pro-inflammatory molecules.

DISRUPTING SHOCKS IN POSTWAR GLOBAL ECONOMIC EXPANSION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dumitru FILIPEANU

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The coherence of the global economic system, created by its upswing in the first postwar decades, started to crumble in the ’70s. The destabilizing shocks affected the entire world, but in an uneven manner, in different geographical areas and at different times, being felt most acutely, with devastating economic and social effects, in Third World countries. Although the developed countries were affected as well, they always had means to combat or to diminish the adverse effects of the crises, leading to "gentler" consequences. This paper focuses on four main aspects in postwar global economic expansion, namely: the ’70s – the international monetary crisis and the oil shocks; the foreign debt crisis; the Latin American debt crisis, the Asian financial crises and the current global crisis.

Investigation on Selective Laser Melting AlSi10Mg Cellular Lattice Strut: Molten Pool Morphology, Surface Roughness and Dimensional Accuracy

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Xuesong Han

2018-03-01

Full Text Available AlSi10Mg inclined struts with angle of 45° were fabricated by selective laser melting (SLM using different scanning speed and hatch spacing to gain insight into the evolution of the molten pool morphology, surface roughness, and dimensional accuracy. The results show that the average width and depth of the molten pool, the lower surface roughness and dimensional deviation decrease with the increase of scanning speed and hatch spacing. The upper surface roughness is found to be almost constant under different processing parameters. The width and depth of the molten pool on powder-supported zone are larger than that of the molten pool on the solid-supported zone, while the width changes more significantly than that of depth. However, if the scanning speed is high enough, the width and depth of the molten pool and the lower surface roughness almost keep constant as the density is still high. Therefore, high dimensional accuracy and density as well as good surface quality can be achieved simultaneously by using high scanning speed during SLMed cellular lattice strut.

Investigation on Selective Laser Melting AlSi10Mg Cellular Lattice Strut: Molten Pool Morphology, Surface Roughness and Dimensional Accuracy.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Xuesong; Zhu, Haihong; Nie, Xiaojia; Wang, Guoqing; Zeng, Xiaoyan

2018-03-07

AlSi10Mg inclined struts with angle of 45° were fabricated by selective laser melting (SLM) using different scanning speed and hatch spacing to gain insight into the evolution of the molten pool morphology, surface roughness, and dimensional accuracy. The results show that the average width and depth of the molten pool, the lower surface roughness and dimensional deviation decrease with the increase of scanning speed and hatch spacing. The upper surface roughness is found to be almost constant under different processing parameters. The width and depth of the molten pool on powder-supported zone are larger than that of the molten pool on the solid-supported zone, while the width changes more significantly than that of depth. However, if the scanning speed is high enough, the width and depth of the molten pool and the lower surface roughness almost keep constant as the density is still high. Therefore, high dimensional accuracy and density as well as good surface quality can be achieved simultaneously by using high scanning speed during SLMed cellular lattice strut.

Timing and Institutions: Determinants of the Ownership Structure in the Oil and Gas Industry in Canada and Norway

Science.gov (United States)

Didier, Thomas

In response to 1973 oil shock, both the Canadian and Norwegian states expanded public corporate ownership in the oil and gas industry. This thesis questions why the public share of total corporate ownership in the oil industry was greater in Norway than in Canada, and why Petro-Canada was privatized completely while Statoil was not. Two hypotheses are tested from a historical institutionalist perspective. First, the timing of oil development determined whether the private sector would establish itself as the dominant player in the oil and gas industry (in Canada) or not (in Norway) before the 1973 oil shock triggered government interest in public corporate ownership. Second, overlapping jurisdiction over oil resources (in Canada) undermined the effectiveness of mechanisms of reproduction of public corporate ownership. In Norway, the later discovery of oil thus gave the state a stronger bargaining position relative to the oil industry, and in a unitary state the uncontroversial redistributional activities of Statoil attracted more vested interests.

Oil Price Volatility, Economic Growth and the Hedging Role of Renewable Energy

OpenAIRE

Rentschler, Jun E.

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the adverse effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by using renewable energy. By considering the Realized Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are analy...

The oil's comeback in the wake of the third oil shock - Class of enterprises and strategic group in the oil industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greggio, R.; Maffei, B.

2015-01-01

The oil industry has been characterized for several decades by a deep-rooted paradox. The western multinational companies have been denied access to the most profitable oil-fields as a result of their nationalization which occurred mainly during the seventies: they extract nowadays only a small part of the world's oil. Yet, they have consolidated their financial, technological and strategic leadership, whereas oil companies from emerging countries do not have the same unrestricted freedom of action. As there has been no substantial change in the oil business hierarchy, oil companies should be presented as actually forming 'classes of enterprises' rather than be construed as 'strategic groups'. In other words, they constitute sets of relatively autonomous entities, which may sometimes conflict and also cooperate with each other, but whose strategies are excessively determined by geopolitical and industrial constraints which cannot be easily overcome. (authors)

Financial market pressure, tacit collusion and oil price formation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aune, Finn Roar; Rosendahl, Knut Einar; Mohn, Klaus; Osmundsen, Petter

2010-01-01

We explore a hypothesis that a change in investment behaviour among international oil companies (IOC) towards the end of the 1990s had long-lived effects on OPEC strategies, and on oil price formation. Coordinated investment constraints were imposed on the IOCs through financial market pressures for improved short-term profitability in the wake of the Asian economic crisis. A partial equilibrium model for the global oil market is applied to compare the effects of these tacitly collusive capital constraints on oil supply with an alternative characterised by industrial stability. Our results suggest that even temporary economic and financial shocks may have a long-term impact on oil price formation. (author)

Restructuring: new relationships between the oil companies and the upstream oil firms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barreau, S.

2001-11-01

Since the 1986 oil shock, international oil companies have focused on their base competencies, concentrating on activities viewed as their core businesses and steadily increasing the number of tasks to be subcontracted to the upstream oil and gas service sector. The upstream oil and gas service companies had to be restructured to face this new challenge. The strategies they launched at the end of the 80's were varied. Some firms became largely integrated (Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, Halliburton) whereas other firms chose to broaden their range of services. However generally, they opted for external investment which led to an important wave of mergers and acquisitions. The first part characterizes the upstream oil and gas sector by introducing the main oil and gas service firms and their recent strategic evolution. This concludes with both an economic valuation and a typology of attempted growth strategies. To illustrate this, a matrix has been created to characterise the dynamic paths of the oil and gas service firms. The purpose of the second part is to consider the economic theories related to industrial strategies. The strategies of innovation, market protection, vertical integration and diversification have been studied to illustrate the main conclusion which is that the aim of all these strategies was to change the relationships between the oil companies and the upstream oil and gas service firms. (author)

Oil price fluctuations and Its effect on GDP growth

OpenAIRE

Gonzalez , Aaron; Nabiyev, Sherzod

2009-01-01

During the year of 2008, the world has experienced historically high oil prices reaching an all time high of 147 USD per barrel in midsummer. The extreme volatility of what is consider the number one source of energy reopened discussions about energy sustainability and the plausible effects of an oil shock in the global economy.   How reliable oil price is as an economic variable predicting fluctuations in GDP growth remains controversial. Several models have been developed by scholars target...

Separated influence of crude oil prices on regional natural gas import prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ji, Qiang; Geng, Jiang-Bo; Fan, Ying

2014-01-01

This paper analyses the impact of global economic activity and international crude oil prices on natural gas import prices in three major natural gas markets using the panel cointegration model. It also investigates the shock impacts of the volatility and the increase and decrease of oil prices on regional natural gas import prices. The results show that both global economic activity and international crude oil prices have significant long-term positive effects on regional natural gas import prices. The volatility of international crude oil prices has a negative impact on regional natural gas import prices. The shock impact is weak in North America, lags in Europe and is most significant in Asia, which is mainly determined by different regional policies for price formation. In addition, the response of natural gas import prices to increases and decreases in international crude oil prices shows an asymmetrical mechanism, of which the decrease impact is relatively stronger. - Highlights: • Impacts of world economy and oil prices on regional natural gas prices are analysed • North American natural gas prices are mainly affected by world economy • Asian and European natural gas prices are mainly affected by oil prices • The volatility of oil prices has a negative impact on regional natural gas prices • The response of natural gas import prices to oil prices up and down shows asymmetry

Gulf War tested U.S. oil policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stuntz, L.G.; Smith, H.H.

1992-01-01

Success of the major oil-consuming nations dealing with the Gulf War oil shock should not breed complacency warn the authors. They note that the ability of the US and other major oil importers to eliminate the possibility of significant oil-supply disruptions is limited. Rapid replacement of disrupted supplies through use of excess production capacity was the most important event during the War, they say. However, such excess capacity cannot be counted on in future supply disruptions, they emphasize. Therefore, they conclude the US should: build its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, continue close coordination with its International Energy Agency partners, encourage diversification of world oil supply, develop portions of the Outer Continental Shelf and the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge, push advanced oil recovery research and development, lower consumption, and increase flexibility in its use of other fuels

Oil price fluctuations and the Nigerian economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayadi, O.F.

2005-01-01

The single most important issue confronting a growing number of world economies today is the price of oil and its attendant consequences on economic output. Several studies have taken the approach of Hamilton (1983) in investigating the effect of oil price shocks on levels of gross domestic product. The focus of this paper is primarily on the relationship between oil price changes and economic development via industrial production. A vector auto regression model is employed on some macroeconomic variables from 1980 through 2004. The results indicate that oil price changes affect real exchange rates, which, in turn, affect industrial production. However, this indirect effect of oil prices on industrial production is not statistically significant. Therefore, the implication of the results presented in this paper is that an increase in oil prices does not lead to an increase in industrial production in Nigeria. (author)

Economic effects of peak oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lutz, Christian; Lehr, Ulrike; Wiebe, Kirsten S.

2012-01-01

Assuming that global oil production peaked, this paper uses scenario analysis to show the economic effects of a possible supply shortage and corresponding rise in oil prices in the next decade on different sectors in Germany and other major economies such as the US, Japan, China, the OPEC or Russia. Due to the price-inelasticity of oil demand the supply shortage leads to a sharp increase in oil prices in the second scenario, with high effects on GDP comparable to the magnitude of the global financial crises in 2008/09. Oil exporting countries benefit from high oil prices, whereas oil importing countries are negatively affected. Generally, the effects in the third scenario are significantly smaller than in the second, showing that energy efficiency measures and the switch to renewable energy sources decreases the countries' dependence on oil imports and hence reduces their vulnerability to oil price shocks on the world market. - Highlights: ► National and sectoral economic effects of peak oil until 2020 are modelled. ► The price elasticity of oil demand is low resulting in high price fluctuations. ► Oil shortage strongly affects transport and indirectly all other sectors. ► Global macroeconomic effects are comparable to the 2008/2009 crisis. ► Country effects depend on oil imports and productivity, and economic structures.

Global oil glut and sanctions: The impact on Putin’s Russia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tuzova, Yelena; Qayum, Faryal

2016-01-01

The Russian economy is highly responsive to oil price fluctuations. At the start of 2014, the country was already suffering from the weak economic growth, partly due to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and Western sanctions. The recent plunge in global oil prices put even further strain on the Russian economy. This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between oil price shocks, economic sanctions, and leading macroeconomic indicators in Russia. We apply a vector autoregression (VAR) to quantify the effects of oil price shocks as well as western economic sanctions on real GDP, real effective exchange rate, inflation, real fiscal expenditures, real consumption expenditures, and external trade using quarterly data from 1999:1 until 2015:1. Our results show a significant impact of oil prices on the Russian economy. We predict that Russia’s economic outlook is not very optimistic. If sanctions remain until the end of 2017, the quarter-to-quarter real GDP will contract on average by 19 percent over the next two years. - Highlights: • The impact of the recent decline in oil prices and western sanctions is analyzed. • A vector autoregression model is used to do the forecast for Russia. • The real GDP is likely to contract by 19 percent over the next two years.

The relationship between oil price shocks and China's macro-economy. An empirical analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Limin; Yanan, He; Wei; Chu

2010-01-01

This paper investigates the relationship between the world oil price and China's macro-economy based on a monthly time series from 1995:1 to 2008:12, using the method of multivariate vector autoregression (VAR). The results show that the world oil price affects the economic growth and inflation of China significantly, and the impact is non-linear. On the other hand, China's economic activity fails to affect the world oil price, which means that the world oil price is still exogenous with respect to China's macro-economy in time series sense, and China has not yet had an oil pricing power in the world oil markets. The structural stability tests demonstrate that there is a structural break in the VAR model because of the reforms of China's oil pricing mechanism, thus it is more appropriate to break the whole sample into different sub-samples for the estimation of the model. (author)

Updated Hubbert curves analyze world oil supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ivanhoe, L.F.

1996-01-01

The question is not whether, but when, world crude oil production will start to decline, ushering in the permanent oil shock era. While global information for predicting this event is not so straightforward as the data M. King Hubbert used in creating his famous Hubbert Curve that predicted the US (Lower 48 states, or US/48) 1970 oil production peak, there are strong indications that most of the world's large exploration targets have now been found. Meanwhile, the earth's population is exploding along with the oil needs of Asia's developing nations. This article reviews Hubbert's original analyses on oil discovery and production curves for the US/48 and projects his proven methodology onto global oil discoveries and production as of 1992. The world's oil discovery curve peaked in 1962, and thence declined, as a Hubbert Curve predicts. However, global production was restricted after the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Otherwise, world production would have peaked in the mid-1990s. Two graphs show alternate versions of future global oil production

Geometrical shock dynamics for magnetohydrodynamic fast shocks

KAUST Repository

Mostert, W.; Pullin, D. I.; Samtaney, Ravi; Wheatley, V.

2016-01-01

We describe a formulation of two-dimensional geometrical shock dynamics (GSD) suitable for ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) fast shocks under magnetic fields of general strength and orientation. The resulting area–Mach-number–shock-angle relation is then incorporated into a numerical method using pseudospectral differentiation. The MHD-GSD model is verified by comparison with results from nonlinear finite-volume solution of the complete ideal MHD equations applied to a shock implosion flow in the presence of an oblique and spatially varying magnetic field ahead of the shock. Results from application of the MHD-GSD equations to the stability of fast MHD shocks in two dimensions are presented. It is shown that the time to formation of triple points for both perturbed MHD and gas-dynamic shocks increases as (Formula presented.), where (Formula presented.) is a measure of the initial Mach-number perturbation. Symmetry breaking in the MHD case is demonstrated. In cylindrical converging geometry, in the presence of an azimuthal field produced by a line current, the MHD shock behaves in the mean as in Pullin et al. (Phys. Fluids, vol. 26, 2014, 097103), but suffers a greater relative pressure fluctuation along the shock than the gas-dynamic shock. © 2016 Cambridge University Press

Geometrical shock dynamics for magnetohydrodynamic fast shocks

KAUST Repository

Mostert, W.

2016-12-12

We describe a formulation of two-dimensional geometrical shock dynamics (GSD) suitable for ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) fast shocks under magnetic fields of general strength and orientation. The resulting area–Mach-number–shock-angle relation is then incorporated into a numerical method using pseudospectral differentiation. The MHD-GSD model is verified by comparison with results from nonlinear finite-volume solution of the complete ideal MHD equations applied to a shock implosion flow in the presence of an oblique and spatially varying magnetic field ahead of the shock. Results from application of the MHD-GSD equations to the stability of fast MHD shocks in two dimensions are presented. It is shown that the time to formation of triple points for both perturbed MHD and gas-dynamic shocks increases as (Formula presented.), where (Formula presented.) is a measure of the initial Mach-number perturbation. Symmetry breaking in the MHD case is demonstrated. In cylindrical converging geometry, in the presence of an azimuthal field produced by a line current, the MHD shock behaves in the mean as in Pullin et al. (Phys. Fluids, vol. 26, 2014, 097103), but suffers a greater relative pressure fluctuation along the shock than the gas-dynamic shock. © 2016 Cambridge University Press

An oil-sick global economy?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2004-01-01

Since early 2004, oil prices have increased by 50% as a combined result of a demand shock, tensions on production capacities and supply disruptions. The surplus of wealth from oil importing to exporting countries nears 100 bn dollars (0.3% of OECD GDP) in the whole year. Households' real income should decrease by 0.3 point in the Euro zone and by 0.5 point in the US. According to our oil price forecasts (33 dollars a barrel by the end of 2005), GDP growth should be reduced by 0.4 point in 2004-2005. Should prices remain at 50 dollars throughout 2005, growth in industrial countries will be further impaired (0.6 point with a monetary policy response), but developing economies will suffer more. Oil producing countries should increase their imports and the reintroduction of petro dollars on financial markets should hold international interest rates down

Testing the evolution of crude oil market efficiency: Data have the conn

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Bing; Li, Xiao-Ming; He, Fei

2014-01-01

Utilising a time-varying GAR (1)-TGARCH (1,1) model with different frequency data, we investigate the weak-form efficiency of major global crude oil spot markets in Europe, the US, the UAE and China for the period from December 2001 to August 2013. Our empirical results with weekly data indicate that all four markets have reached efficiency with few brief inefficient periods during the past decade, whereas the daily crude oil returns series suggest intermittent and inconsistent efficiency. We argue that the weekly Friday series fit the data better than the average series in autocorrelation tests. The evidence suggests that all four markets exhibit asymmetries in return-volatility reactions to different information shocks and that they react more strongly to bad news than to good news. The 2008 financial crisis has significantly affected the efficiency of oil markets. Furthermore, a comovement phenomenon and volatility spillover effects exist among the oil markets. Policy recommendations consistent with our empirical results are proposed, which address three issues: implementing prudential regulations, establishing an Asian pricing centre and improving transparency in crude oil spot markets. - Highlights: • We adopt a time-varying model to test the weak-form efficiency of crude oil markets. • Weekly oil returns series have been extremely efficient during the past decade. • Daily oil returns series have presented intermittent and inconsistent efficiency. • Oil markets react asymmetrically to different information shocks. • Policy recommendations are proposed according to the degree of efficiency

Oil price shocks and long run price and import demand behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kleibergen, F.; Van Dijk, H.K.; Urbain, J.P.

1997-01-01

The effect which the oil price time series has on the long run properties of Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models for price levels and import demand is investigated. As the oil price variable is assumed to be weakly exogenous for the long run parameters, a cointegration testing procedure allowing for weakly exogenous variables is developed using a LU decomposition of the long run multiplier matrix. The likelihood based cointegration test statistics, Wald, Likelihood Ratio and Lagrange Multiplier, are constructed and their limiting distributions derived. Using these tests, we find that incorporating the oil price in a model for the domestic or import price level of seven industrialized countries decreases the long run memory of the inflation rate. Second, we find that the results for import demand can be classified with respect to the oil importing or exporting status of the specific country. The result for Japan is typical as its import price is not influenced by gnp in the long run, which is the case for all other countries. 31 refs

OPEC: 10 years after the Arab oil boycott

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cooper, M.H.

1983-09-23

OPEC's dominance over world oil markets is waning 10 years after precipitating world-wide energy and economic crises. The 1979 revolution in Iran and the start of the Iranian-Iraqi war in 1980 introduced a second shock that caused oil importers to seek non-OPEC supplies and emphasize conservation. No breakup of the cartel is anticipated, however, despite internal disagreements over production and price levels. Forecasters see OPEC as the major price setter as an improved economy increases world demand for oil. Long-term forecasts are even more optimistic. 24 references, 2 figures, 2 tables. (DCK)

Passive shock wave/boundary layer control of wing at transonic speeds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ling Zhou

2017-11-01

Full Text Available At supercritical conditions a porous strip (or slot strip placed beneath a shock wave can reduce the drag by a weaker lambda shock system, and increase the buffet boundary, even may increase the lift. Passive shock wave/boundary layer control (PSBC for drag reduction was conducted by SC(2-0714 supercritical wing, with emphases on parameter of porous/slot and bump, such as porous distribution, hole diameter, cavity depth, porous direction and so on. A sequential quadratic programming (SQP optimization method coupled with adjoint method was adopted to achieve the optimized shape and position of the bumps. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD, force test and oil test with half model all indicate that PSBC with porous, slot and bump generally reduce the drag by weaker lambda shock at supercritical conditions. According to wind tunnel test results for angle of attack of 2° at Mach number M=0.8, the porous configuration with 6.21% porosity results in a drag reduction of 0.0002 and lift–drag ratio increase of 0.2, the small bump configuration results in a drag reduction of 0.0007 and lift–drag ratio increase of 0.3. Bump normally reduce drag at design point with shock wave position being accurately computed. If bump diverges from the position of shock wave, drag will not be easily reduced.

US oil dependency: 1973-1997

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noel, P.

1998-11-01

This piece examines the behavior of US oil imports since the first oil shock, and compares with other big importers Europe and Japan. The relative share of Persian Gulf oil in foreign supply to the US is explained in terms of ''swing supplier'', and is shown to evolve in direct relation with the imports themselves: up when they are growing; down when imports go down. This relation broke up at the beginning of the 1990: despite growing US imports, Gulf share is declining. The reason is a regionalization (meaning the pan-Americanization) of US oil imports: the share of Latin American (Mexican and Venezuelan) and Canadian oil is growing steadily at the expense of non American suppliers. Hence the papers questions the chance of a emancipation of the US from Gulf oil and its geopolitical consequences. We argue that even in the case of a complete regionalization of oil imports, US energy security would still depend on the stability in the Middle-East, because of the ''unified'' and global nature of the oil market. An emancipation of the US from the Gulf is not impossible (though certainly not certain) but an emancipation of the Gulf from the US is all but imminent. (author)

Diseño e implementación de una tienda electrónica mediante STRUTS y SOAP

OpenAIRE

López Valladolid, Carmen Rocío

2009-01-01

Gracias al uso de Internet como medio de comunicación, las aplicaciones Web han cobrado una gran importancia y su uso se ha hecho muy común. Esta fuerte demanda de aplicaciones Web ha hecho que hayan nacido una serie de frameworks que facilitan su desarrollo. Este texto presenta una aplicación Web estándar implementada con Struts, uno de los frameworks OpenSource con más aceptación de los disponibles en el mercado para el desarrollo de aplicaciones Web. Esta aplicación se completa con una int...

Oil Prices and the Renewable Energy Sector

OpenAIRE

Kyritsis, Evangelos; Serletis, Apostolos

2017-01-01

Energy security, climate change, and growing energy demand issues are moving up on the global political agenda, and contribute to the rapid growth of the renewable energy sector. In this paper we investigate the effects of oil price shocks, and also of uncertainty about oil prices, on the stock returns of clean energy and technology companies. In doing so, we use monthly data that span the period from May 1983 to December 2016, and a bivariate structural VAR model that is modified to accommod...

Trabecular bone structure and strength - remodelling and repair

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mosekilde, Lis; Ebbesen, Ebbe Nils; Erikstrup, Lise Tornvig

2000-01-01

vertical and horizontal struts reaching a certain magnitude and thereby inducing buckling under compression. 4) Microdamage and microfractures will occur - mainly in these very loaded vertical struts. The microfractures will be repaired by microcallus formation, and these calluses will later be removed...... can never be isolated in vivo, other factors need to be investigated: The interplay between the cortical shell and the trabecular network; transmission of load; the interplay between soft tissues (cartilage, connective tissue, muscle) and bone; the shock absorbing capacity of the discs...

Physics of Collisionless Shocks Space Plasma Shock Waves

CERN Document Server

Balogh, André

2013-01-01

The present book provides a contemporary systematic treatment of shock waves in high-temperature collisionless plasmas as are encountered in near Earth space and in Astrophysics. It consists of two parts. Part I develops the complete theory of shocks in dilute hot plasmas under the assumption of absence of collisions among the charged particles when the interaction is mediated solely by the self-consistent electromagnetic fields. Such shocks are naturally magnetised implying that the magnetic field plays an important role in their evolution and dynamics. This part treats both subcritical shocks, which dissipate flow energy by generating anomalous resistance or viscosity, and supercritical shocks. The main emphasis is, however, on super-critical shocks where the anomalous dissipation is insufficient to retard the upstream flow. These shocks, depending on the direction of the upstream magnetic field, are distinguished as quasi-perpendicular and quasi-parallel shocks which exhibit different behaviours, reflecti...

The overseas acquisitions and equity oil shares of Chinese national oil companies: A threat to the West but a boost to China's energy security?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Zhongxiang

2012-01-01

This paper argues that both China and the Western countries need to de-politicize China's global quest for energy security. The Western politicians need to recognize that their rhetoric in relation to China's efforts to secure energy supplies overseas has done nothing but intensify China's fear that they might seek to deny China's access to the oil it needs for the development. China needs to reconsider its stance of distrusting global oil markets and to recognize that the reliance on aggressive acquisitions of overseas oil fields and equity oil production has been of little help in strengthening its energy security. Given that China's energy security depends increasingly and deeply on the stability of global oil markets and reliable and growing oil supplies to the market, China shares with other major oil importing countries profound common interests in maintaining and strengthening the stability of global oil markets and reducing the chance of potential disruptions to oil supply and the resulting damaging oil price shocks.

Volatility persistence in crude oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charles, Amélie; Darné, Olivier

2014-01-01

Financial market participants and policy-makers can benefit from a better understanding of how shocks can affect volatility over time. This study assesses the impact of structural changes and outliers on volatility persistence of three crude oil markets – Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – between January 2, 1985 and June 17, 2011. We identify outliers using a new semi-parametric test based on conditional heteroscedasticity models. These large shocks can be associated with particular event patterns, such as the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, the Operation Desert Storm, the Operation Desert Fox, and the Global Financial Crisis as well as OPEC announcements on production reduction or US announcements on crude inventories. We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of the equation governing volatility dynamics; (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models (GARCH, IGARCH, FIGARCH and HYGARCH); and (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility, and thus the estimation of the persistence of the volatility. Therefore, taking into account the outliers on the volatility modelling process may improve the understanding of volatility in crude oil markets. - Highlights: • We study the impact of outliers on volatility persistence of crude oil markets. • We identify outliers and patches of outliers due to specific events. • We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of GARCH models, (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models, (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility of crude oil markets

The Volatility of Oil Prices on Stock Exchanges in the Context of Recent Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Popescu Maria-Floriana

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Oil along with currencies and gold are the main indicators of the most important processes which take place in the world economy, quotations’ volatility being always followed by economic and social events. Quiet periods of oil prices, when quotations have a constant evolution or only suffer minor fluctuations, are very rare. Most of the time, very sharp price increases or decreases are happening over night or week. This is mostly due to the fact that the oil market is extremely speculative, being influenced by political, military, social, or meteorological events. Since the major oil price shocks of the 70s, the impact of oil price changes on the economic reality of a country or region has been widely studied by academic researchers. Moreover, the stock market plays an important role in the economic welfare and development of a country. Therefore, a vast number of studies have investigated the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns, being discovered significant effects of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic activity for both developed and emerging countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate the volatility of oil prices on stock exchanges taking into consideration the recent events that have affected the oil markets around the globe. Furthermore, based on the findings of this research, some possible scenarios will be developed, taking into account various events that might take place and their potential outcome for oil prices’ future.

The impact of oil price on Malaysian sector indices

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Luan, Yeap Pei; Ee, Ong Joo

2015-12-01

In this paper, vector error correction model (VECM) has been utilized to model the dynamic relationships between world crude oil price and the sector indices of Malaysia. The sector indices have been collected are covering the period Jan 1998 to Dec 2013. Surprisingly, our investigations show that oil price changes do not Granger-cause any of the sectors in all of Malaysia. However, sector indices of Food Producer and Utilities are found to be the cause of the changes in world crude oil prices. Furthermore, from the results of variance decomposition, very high percentage of shocks is explained by world crude oil price itself over the 12 months and small impact from other sector indices.

Oil in the Water, Fire in the Sky: Responding to Technological/Environmental Disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Lazarus, Philip J.; Sulkowski, Michael L.

2010-01-01

On April 20, 2010, a massive explosion killed 11 workers on the Deepwater Horizon oil rig. Survivors of this explosion recounted terrifying near-death experiences and mourned the loss of coworkers and friends who had perished. Shock and grief spread through small coastal communities composed mostly of fishers and oil workers. However, this was…

The outlook for US oil dependence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greene, D.L.; Jones, D.W.; Leiby, P.N.

1998-01-01

Oil dependence is defined as a dynamic problem of short- and long-run market power. The potential monopoly power of an oil cartel depends on its market share and the elasticities of oil supply and demand, while the economic vulnerability of oil-consuming states depends most directly on the quantity of oil imported and the oil cost share of gross domestic product (GDP). Of these factors, only the market share of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel and the rate of growth of world oil demand are clearly different than they were 25 years ago. OPEC still holds the majority of world oil and, in the future, will regain market share. A hypothetical 2-year supply reduction in 2005-2006, similar in size to those of 1973-1974 or 1979-1980, illustrates the potential benefits to OPEC and harm to the US economy of a future oil price shock. OPEC's revenues are estimated to increase by roughly $0.7 trillion, while the US economy loses about $0.5 trillion. Strategic petroleum reserves seem ineffective against a determined, multi-year supply curtailment. Increasing the market's price responsiveness by improving the technologies of oil supply and oil demand can greatly reduce the costs of oil dependence. Each element of this interpretation of the oil dependence problem is well supported by previous studies. This paper's contribution is to unite these elements into a coherent explanation and to point out the enormously important implications for energy policy. (Author)

Simulations of Converging Shock Collisions for Shock Ignition

Science.gov (United States)

Sauppe, Joshua; Dodd, Evan; Loomis, Eric

2016-10-01

Shock ignition (SI) has been proposed as an alternative to achieving high gain in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) targets. A central hot spot below the ignition threshold is created by an initial compression pulse, and a second laser pulse drives a strong converging shock into the fuel. The collision between the rebounding shock from the compression pulse and the converging shock results in amplification of the converging shock and increases the hot spot pressure above the ignition threshold. We investigate shock collision in SI drive schemes for cylindrical targets with a polystyrene foam interior using radiation-hydrodynamics simulations with the RAGE code. The configuration is similar to previous targets fielded on the Omega laser. The CH interior results in a lower convergence ratio and the cylindrical geometry facilitates visualization of the shock transit using an axial X-ray backlighter, both of which are important for comparison to potential experimental measurements. One-dimensional simulations are used to determine shock timing, and the effects of low mode asymmetries in 2D computations are also quantified. LA-UR-16-24773.

A preventive maintenance policy based on dependent two-stage deterioration and external shocks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Li; Ma, Xiaobing; Peng, Rui; Zhai, Qingqing; Zhao, Yu

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a preventive maintenance policy for a single-unit system whose failure has two competing and dependent causes, i.e., internal deterioration and sudden shocks. The internal failure process is divided into two stages, i.e. normal and defective. Shocks arrive according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP), leading to the failure of the system immediately. The occurrence rate of a shock is affected by the state of the system. Both an age-based replacement and finite number of periodic inspections are schemed simultaneously to deal with the competing failures. The objective of this study is to determine the optimal preventive replacement interval, inspection interval and number of inspections such that the expected cost per unit time is minimized. A case study on oil pipeline maintenance is presented to illustrate the maintenance policy. - Highlights: • A maintenance model based on two-stage deterioration and sudden shocks is developed. • The impact of internal system state on external shock process is studied. • A new preventive maintenance strategy combining age-based replacements and periodic inspections is proposed. • Postponed replacement of a defective system is provided by restricting the number of inspections.

An analysis of price and volatility transmission in butter, palm oil and crude oil markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dennis Bergmann

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Recent changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP saw a shift to greater market orientation for the EU dairy industry. Given this reorientation, the volatility of EU dairy commodity prices has sharply increased, creating the need to develop proper risk management tools to protect farmers’ income and to ensure stable prices for processors and consumers. In addition, there is a perceived threat that these commodities may be replaced by cheaper substitutes, such as palm oil, as dairy commodity prices become more volatile. Global production of palm oil almost doubled over the last decade while butter production remained relatively flat. Palm oil also serves as a feedstock for biodiesel production, thus establishing a new link between agricultural commodities and crude oil. Price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices, as well as between butter, palm oil and crude oil prices, before and after the Luxembourg agreement, are analysed. Vector autoregression (VAR models are applied to capture price transmission effects between these markets. These are combined with a multivariate GARCH model to account for potential volatility transmission. Results indicate strong price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices. EU butter shocks further spillover to palm oil volatility. In addition, there is evidence that oil prices spillover to World butter prices and World butter volatility.

Shock Dynamics in Stellar Outbursts. I. Shock Formation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ro, Stephen; Matzner, Christopher D., E-mail: ro@astro.utoronto.ca [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 50 St. George Street, Toronto, ON M5S 3H4 (Canada)

2017-05-20

Wave-driven outflows and non-disruptive explosions have been implicated in pre-supernova outbursts, supernova impostors, luminous blue variable eruptions, and some narrow-line and superluminous supernovae. To model these events, we investigate the dynamics of stars set in motion by strong acoustic pulses and wave trains, focusing on nonlinear wave propagation, shock formation, and an early phase of the development of a weak shock. We identify the shock formation radius, showing that a heuristic estimate based on crossing characteristics matches an exact expansion around the wave front and verifying both with numerical experiments. Our general analytical condition for shock formation applies to one-dimensional motions within any static environment, including both eruptions and implosions. We also consider the early phase of shock energy dissipation. We find that waves of super-Eddington acoustic luminosity always create shocks, rather than damping by radiative diffusion. Therefore, shock formation is integral to super-Eddington outbursts.

Natural Rubber Modification For Upper Layer Of Rubberized Asphalt Paving Block AS Shock Absorber

OpenAIRE

Nasruddin, Nasruddin

2017-01-01

The research of rubber compounding modification for upper layer of rubberized asphalt paving block as shock absorber using natural rubber, styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) as synthetic rubber, fly ash as filler and also vegetable oil as plasticizer has been conducted. The research design was varying the filler Si-69, fly ash and palm oil. The five formulas A, B, C, D, and E designed by varying the amount of Si-69 (48.5; 50.75; 53.00; 55.25; and 57.50) phr; coal fly ash (4.75, 7.00, 9.25, 11.50 ...

Nexus between Oil Price and Stock Performance of Power Industry in Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Puah, Chin-Hong; Tan, Lay-Phin; Md Isa, Abu Hassan

2009-01-01

This paper examines the reaction of KLCI and five major power sector stocks listed on Bursa Malaysia to the changes in the world spot oil price using cointegration technique and impulse response analysis. Results indicate the existence of a long run positive relationship of world spot oil price with the stock returns of KLCI, TENAGA, TANJONG and YTLP. The impulse response analysis further shows that, in most of the cases, the oil price shock has only an impact on the short time horizon. As Ma...

Slow shocks and their transition to fast shocks in the inner solar wind

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Y.C.

1987-01-01

The jump conditions of MHD shocks may be directly calculated as functions of three upstream conditions: the shock Alfven number based on the normal component of the relative shock speed, the shock angle, and the plasma β value. The shock Alfven number is less than 1 for a slow shock and greater than 1 for a fast shock. A traveling, forward shock can be a slow shock in coronal space, where the Alfven speed is of the order of 1000 km/s. The surface of a forward slow shock has a bow-shaped geometry with its nose facing toward the sun. The decrease in the Alfven speed at increasing heliocentric distance causes the shock Alfven number of a forward slow shock to become greater than 1, and the shock eventually evolves from a slow shock into a fast shock. During the transition the shock system consists of a slow shock, a fast shock, and a rotational discontinuity. They intersect along a closed transition line. As the system moves outward from the sun, the area enclosed by the transition line expands, the fast shock grows stronger, and the slow shock becomes weaker. Eventually, the slow shock diminishes, and the entire shock system evolves into a forward fast shock. copyrightAmerican Geophysical Union 1987

An empirical nexus between oil price collapse and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African oil based economies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

KEJI Sunday Anderu

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The focus of this study, is to empirically investigate the nexus between oil price collapse and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa oil based economies, specifically from Angola, Nigeria and Sudan between January, 2010 and December, 2015, through panel random effects model (REM: Economic growth rate (GDPR and independent variables: Oil price (OPR, Exchange rate (EXR, Industrial Output (IND and Terms of Trade (TOT. REM result showed that there is negative link between oil price collapse and the economic growth in the case of Angola, Nigeria and Sudan, which confirmed the nexus between oil price collapse and economic growth. Post estimation tests such as Hausman and Breusch and Pagan Lagrange Multiplier Test were adopted to empirically show the consistency and efficiency of the model. Interestingly, the two key variables (GDPR and OPR disclose how unprecedented oil price fall disrupts economic growth of the selected economies. Meanwhile, poor institutional quality in the oil sector coupled with poor fiscal measure among others, further expose these economies to unprecedented external shocks that was characterized by skyrocket exchange rate, hence destabilize growth within the period under review. Therefore, the need for a robust fiscal measure is pertinent in order to sustain economic growth

The effects of oil price on regional economies with different production structures: A case study from Korea using a structural VAR model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Chuhwan; Chung, Mo; Lee, Sukgyu

2011-01-01

This study analyzes the effects of oil price fluctuations on regional macroeconomic variables with a structural VAR model. We classified fifteen metropolitan cities and provinces of Korea into four major regions (Capital, Central, Honam, and Gyeongsang) and examined the effects of oil price fluctuations on the economy of these regions. The results in the short- and long-term lag structures show a negative response to industrial production and price. The Capital region is less affected by oil price fluctuations than the other three provincial regions. We concluded that the government should focus on creating an industrial environment to accumulate production factors and technologies in oil price-sensitive regions. - Highlights: ► We examined the effects of oil price shocks on four major economic areas of South Korea. ► We used structural VAR analysis. ► We showed that the production structure of a region influences the impact of oil price shocks. ► We inference that the government should focus on creating an industrial environment.

The case for conserving oil resources: the fundamentals of supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynolds, D.B.

2000-01-01

This article summarises the evidence for an oil price shock and argues that oil producers, both OPEC and non-OPEC, need to cut back oil production more, in order to conserve oil for the future and to avert sudden extreme movements in oil prices in the next five-to-ten years. Four physical fundamentals determine long-run changes in oil prices: supply, demand, technology and substitutes. We show that supply, technology and substitutes are limited and demand is growing strongly. As demand pushes against supply, prices will rise rapidly. It would be better to conserve oil now, in order to have a smoother transition to higher-priced oil in the future. In addition, oil is such a valuable resource for the worlds economies in general, that we should conserve it for future generations. The world, in its haste for economic growth, should support OPEC conservation efforts. (author)

Modelling and testing volatility spillovers in oil and financial markets for USA, UK and China

OpenAIRE

Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael; Tian, Jiarong

2016-01-01

textabstractThe primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another physical or financial asset) between the oil and financial markets. The oil industry has four major r...

Hierarchical tailoring of strut architecture to control permeability of additive manufactured titanium implants.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Z; Jones, D; Yue, S; Lee, P D; Jones, J R; Sutcliffe, C J; Jones, E

2013-10-01

Porous titanium implants are a common choice for bone augmentation. Implants for spinal fusion and repair of non-union fractures must encourage blood flow after implantation so that there is sufficient cell migration, nutrient and growth factor transport to stimulate bone ingrowth. Additive manufacturing techniques allow a large number of pore network designs. This study investigates how the design factors offered by selective laser melting technique can be used to alter the implant architecture on multiple length scales to control and even tailor the flow. Permeability is a convenient parameter that characterises flow, correlating to structure openness (interconnectivity and pore window size), tortuosity and hence flow shear rates. Using experimentally validated computational simulations, we demonstrate how additive manufacturing can be used to tailor implant properties by controlling surface roughness at a microstructual level (microns), and by altering the strut ordering and density at a mesoscopic level (millimetre). Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The physiological effects of oil, dispersant and dispersed oil on the bay mussel, Mytilus trossulus, in Arctic/Subarctic conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Counihan, Katrina L

2018-06-01

Increasing oil development around Alaska and other Arctic regions elevates the risk for another oil spill. Dispersants are used to mitigate the impact of an oil spill by accelerating natural degradation processes, but the reduced hydrophobicity of dispersed oil may increase its bioavailability to marine organisms. There is limited research on the effect of dispersed oil on cold water species and ecosystems. Therefore, spiked exposure tests were conducted with bay mussels (Mytilus trossulus) in seawater with non-dispersed oil, Corexit 9500 and oil dispersed with different concentrations of Corexit 9500. After three weeks of exposure, acute and chronic physiological impacts were determined. The majority of physiological responses occurred during the first seven days of exposure, with mussels exhibiting significant cytochrome P450 activity, superoxide dismutase activity and heat shock protein levels. Mussels exposed to non-dispersed oil also experienced immune suppression, reduced transcription and higher levels of mortality. After 21 days, mussels in all treatments exhibited evidence of genetic damage, tissue loss and a continued stress response. Bay mussels are useful as indicators of ecosystem health and recovery, and this study was an important step in understanding how non-dispersed oil, dispersant and dispersed oil affect the physiology of this sentinel species in Arctic/subarctic conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toxic shock syndrome

Science.gov (United States)

Staphylococcal toxic shock syndrome; Toxic shock-like syndrome; TSLS ... Toxic shock syndrome is caused by a toxin produced by some types of staphylococcus bacteria. A similar problem, called toxic shock- ...

Oil prices and the rise and fall of the U.S. real exchange rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amano, R.A.; Norden, S. van.

1993-12-01

It is examined whether a link exists between oil price shocks and the U.S. real effective exchange rate. Data used for the study are described and their time series properties and the long-run explanatory power of oil prices for the real exchange rate are examined. Apparent causal relationships between exchange rates and oil prices are examined. An unrestricted error correction model is reduced until an error correction model with reasonable properties is derived. Results show that the two variables appear to be cointegrated and that causality runs from oil prices to the exchange rate and not vice-versa. The single equation error correction model linking these two variables is stable and captures much of the in- and out-of-sample movement in the exchange rate in dynamic simulation. Tests are presented to show that the error correction model has significant post-sample predictive ability for both the size and sign of changes in the real effective exchange rate. The results suggest that oil prices may have been the dominant source of persistant real exchange rate shocks over the post-Bretton Woods period and that energy prices may have important implications for future work on exchange rate behaviour. 61 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

Coronal mass ejection shock fronts containing the two types of intermediate shocks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steinolfson, R.S.; Hundhausen, A.J.

1990-01-01

Numerical solutions of the time-dependent, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations in two dimensions are used to demonstrate the formation of both types of intermediate shocks in a single shock front for physical conditions that are an idealization of those expected to occur in some observed coronal mass ejections. The key to producing such a shock configuration in the simulations is the use of an initial atmosphere containing a magnetic field representative of that in a coronal streamer with open field lines overlying a region of closed field lines. Previous attempts using just open field lines (perpendicular to the surface) produced shock configurations containing just one of the two intermediate shock types. A schematic of such a shock front containing both intermediate shock types has been constructed previously based solely on the known properties of MHD shocks from the Rankine-Hugoniot equations and specific requirements placed on the shock solution at points along the front where the shock normal and upstream magnetic field are aligned. The shock front also contains, at various locations along the front, a hydrodynamic (nonmagnetic) shock, a switch-on shock, and a fast shock in addition to the intermediate shocks. This particular configuration occurs when the shock front speed exceeds the upstream (preshock) intermediate wave speed but is less than a critical speed defined in the paper (equation 1) along at least some portion of the shock front. A distinctive feature of the front is that it is concave upward (away from the surface) near the region where the field in the preshock plasma is normal to the front of near the central portion of the shock front

Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adedoyin I. Lawal

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

Funzionalizzazione della mandibola dopo ricostruzione con lembo libero rivascolarizzato di fibula "single strut". Al di là del deficit di verticalità.

OpenAIRE

Gessaroli, Manlio

2009-01-01

Obiettivi: Valutare la modalità  più efficace per la riabilitazione funzionale del limbo libero di fibula "single strut", dopo ampie resezioni per patologia neoplastica maligna del cavo orale. Metodi: Da una casistica di 62 ricostruzioni microvascolari con limbo libero di fibula, 11 casi sono stati selezionati per essere riabilitati mediante protesi dentale a supporto implantare. 6 casi sono stati trattati senza ulteriori procedure chirurgiche ad eccezione dell'implantologia (gruppo 1), a...

demystifying the shock of shocking

African Journals Online (AJOL)

(with a pulse), atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter. The energy dose in cardioversion is less (0.5. - 2 J/kg) than in defibrillation (2 - 4 J/kg). In cardioversion the shock is discharged synchronously with the native R wave of the patient. Without synchronisation,. VF can be induced if a shock is delivered during the refractory period ...

The second alcohol shock in Brazil - looking for more flexibility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moutinho Dos Santos, E.; Parente, V.

2007-01-01

The recent skyrocketing of the crude oil prices, which went already beyond the 74 US$/barrel, created a new global wave of excitement over ethanol. Brazil has the most traditional wide-scale experience of using ethanol as biofuel. Yet the Brazilian experience with alcohol has already been marked by two major Alcohol Shocks, which have put the Program under questioning. This paper covers the history of Brazil's Alcohol Program from its first launching in the middle of the 1970's, its expansion until the middle 1980's, then the almost failure of the Program in the 1990's after the First Alcohol Shock in 1989. This work also describes how ethanol became popular again from 2002, and how it ended up experiencing another major crisis in the end of 2005, which characterized the so called Second Alcohol Shock. By navigating through the Brazilian biofuel history, this paper aims to discuss how far can Brazil as well as many other countries count upon biofuels as substitute for petroleum products. The paper sustains that providing flexibility to consumers is an essential condition for maintaining alive a sustainable biofuel program. (authors)

Shock absorbing structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Naoki; Matsushita, Kazuo.

1992-01-01

Small pieces of shock absorbers are filled in a space of a shock absorbing vessel which is divided into a plurality of sections by partitioning members. These sections function to prevent excess deformation or replacement of the fillers upon occurrence of falling accident. Since the shock absorbing small pieces in the shock absorbing vessel are filled irregularly, shock absorbing characteristics such as compression strength is not varied depending on the direction, but they exhibit excellent shock absorbing performance. They surely absorb shocks exerted on a transportation vessel upon falling or the like. If existing artificial fillers such as pole rings made of metal or ceramic and cut pieces such as alumium extrusion molding products are used as the shock absorbing pieces, they have excellent fire-proofness and cold resistance since the small pieces are inflammable and do not contain water. (T.M.)

The transitory and permanent volatility of oil prices: What implications are there for the US industrial production?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher; Bashar, Omar H.M.N.; Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on the US industrial production (IPI). ► The transitory component of the oil price volatility has an adverse impact on the US IPI. ► The transitory oil price volatility induces higher volatility in CPI, commodity prices and IPI. -- Abstract: This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on the US industrial production by decomposing oil price volatility into permanent and transitory components. The decompositions provide important evidence on sources and asymmetric effects of oil price volatility. To estimate the component structure of volatility and to analyse the dynamic impacts of the volatility components, the study uses a threshold based CGARCH and VAR modelling over a period from 1980 to 2010 for the US economy. The CGARCH model estimates show significant asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the transitory oil price volatility. Dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the estimated VAR models reveal that there is a significant and prolonged dampening impact of increased transitory oil price volatility on industrial production. The results also suggest that shocks to transitory component induce increased volatility in the general price level and non-fuel commodity prices in the US. Variance decomposition analysis reconfirms that the transitory volatility is the second most important factor to explain the variance of industrial production. These results provide additional insights on the sources of oil price uncertainty and point to the need to direct US energy policies towards stabilising short-term uncertainties in oil prices.

Worldwide cheap and heavy oil productions: A long-term energy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guseo, Renato

2011-01-01

Crude oil, natural gas liquids, heavy oils, deepwater oils, and polar oils are non-renewable energy resources with increasing extraction costs. Two major definitions emerge: regular or 'cheap' oil and non-conventional or 'heavy' oil. Peaking time in conventional oil production has been a recent focus of debate. For two decades, non-conventional oils have been mixed with regular crude oil. Peaking time estimation and the rate at which production may be expected to decline, following the peak, are more difficult to determine. We propose a two-wave model for world oil production pattern and forecasting, based on the diffusion of innovation theories: a sequential multi-Bass model. Historical well-known shocks are confirmed, and new peaking times for crude oil and mixed oil are determined with corresponding depletion rates. In the final section, possible ties between the dynamics of oil extraction and refining capacities are discussed as a predictive symptom of an imminent mixed oil peak in 2016. - Highlights: → Production of conventional and non-conventional oils in aggregate time series. → Decomposition modelling and forecasting with a multi-regime model. → Diffusion of innovation theories and appropriateness of applying Bass concepts to the extraction of oil resources. → Partially overlapping oil extraction processes. → Refining capacities and dynamics of oil extraction.

Topologically Micropatterned Collagen and Poly(ε-caprolactone) Struts Fabricated Using the Poly(vinyl alcohol) Fibrillation/Leaching Process To Develop Efficiently Engineered Skeletal Muscle Tissue.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Minseong; Kim, WonJin; Kim, GeunHyung

2017-12-20

Optimally designed three-dimensional (3D) biomedical scaffolds for skeletal muscle tissue regeneration pose significant research challenges. Currently, most studies on scaffolds focus on the two-dimensional (2D) surface structures that are patterned in the micro-/nanoscales with various repeating sizes and shapes to induce the alignment of myoblasts and myotube formation. The 2D patterned surface clearly provides effective analytical results of pattern size and shape of the myoblast alignment and differentiation. However, it is inconvenient in terms of the direct application for clinical usage due to the limited thickness and 3D shapeability. Hence, the present study suggests an innovative hydrogel or synthetic structure that consists of uniaxially surface-patterned cylindrical struts for skeleton muscle regeneration. The alignment of the pattern on the hydrogel (collagen) and poly(ε-caprolactone) struts was attained with the fibrillation of poly(vinyl alcohol) and the leaching process. Various cell culture results indicate that the C2C12 cells on the micropatterned collagen structure were fully aligned, and that a significantly high level of myotube formation was achieved when compared to the collagen structures that were not treated with the micropatterning process.

Black gold - The great history of oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auzanneau, Matthieu

2016-01-01

The author proposes a history of the 20. century through that of oil. Oil was first a product for militarised societies based of a mechanised war (from the Secession war to the Vietnam war). The oil industry is also presented as a monopolistic, coercive and corrupted system, created by the Rockefeller who also influenced a change in capitalism. Other major actors emerged by the end of the century (J.P. Morgan, Citigroup). The author also outlines the role of some opponents to the Big Oil lobby (from Stalin to Kennedy). Thus, the author analyses and discusses the recent history of international relationships under the influence of oil: construction of the Suez canal, Sykes-Picot agreement, invasion of Ethiopia, creation of international organisations after 1945, overthrow of Mossadegh in Iran, death of Mattei, Biafra war, and so on. He also discusses and outlines the central role of the US-Saudi Arabia alliance which is based on fiscal tricks of majors, denial of democracy, and reinvestment of petrodollars. More recent events are discussed under the light of the influence of the oil industry: Iranian revolution, war in Afghanistan, war between Iraq and Iran, the reverse oil shock, US influence in the Middle-East

Why do oil prices jump (or fall)?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wirl, Franz

2008-01-01

This paper discusses theories that can explain the zig-zags of oil prices in general and in particular the recent jump. More precisely, the following explanations are discussed: Homo oeconomicus (pure profit maximization if demand is dynamic and convex), price reaction function (price increases and respectively declines depend on capacity utilization), cartelization contingent on output or revenues of which the latter can lead to backward bending supply segments and multiple equilibria, statistical descriptions (mean reversion), homo politicus, i.e., arguments for price hikes that are rational (Public Choice) despite the (long-run) economic loss. Finally two approaches are presented that emphasize demand uncertainty: one extending the above-mentioned dynamic demand framework and the other considers a dynamic game of non-competitive suppliers with lumpy investments. Summing up, a demand shock seems to be the most suitable explanation of today's high prices (indeed a shock given that International Energy Agency (IEA) and Department of Energy (DoE) were promising just a couple of years ago that we are going to have lots of oil at low prices), while others and in particular politics have surprisingly little or no explanatory power. (author)

Study on Reflected Shock Wave/Boundary Layer Interaction in a Shock Tube

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Dong Wook; Kim, Tae Ho; Kim, Heuy Dong [Andong Nat’l Univ., Andong (Korea, Republic of)

2017-07-15

The interaction between a shock wave and a boundary layer causes boundary layer separation, shock train, and in some cases, strong unsteadiness in the flow field. Such a situation is also observed in a shock tube, where the reflected shock wave interacts with the unsteady boundary layer. However, only a few studies have been conducted to investigate the shock train phenomenon in a shock tube. In the present study, numerical studies were conducted using the two-dimensional axisymmetric domain of a shock tube, and compressible Navier-Stokes equations were solved to clarify the flow characteristics of shock train phenomenon inside a shock tube. A detailed wave diagram was developed based on the present computational results, which were validated with existing experimental data.

Dynamic impacts of high oil prices on the bioethanol and feedstock markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cha, Kyung Soo; Bae, Jeong Hwan

2011-01-01

This study investigates the impacts of high international oil prices on the bioethanol and corn markets in the US. Between 2007 and 2008, the prices of major grain crops had increased sharply, reflecting the rise in international oil prices. These dual price shocks had caused substantial harm to the global economy. Employing a structural vector auto-regression model (SVAR), we analyze how increases in international oil prices could impact the prices of and demand for corn, which is used as a major bioethanol feedstock in the US. The results indicate that an increase in the oil price would increase bioethanol demand for corn and corn prices in the short run and that corn prices would stabilize in the long run as corn exports and feedstock demand for corn decline. Consequently, policies supporting biofuels should encourage the use of bioethanol co-products for feed and the development of marginal land to mitigate increases in the feedstock price. - Research highlights: → World economy experienced 'dual shocks', which were caused by skyrocketed oil prices and grain prices between 2007 and 2008. → Sharp increases in ethanol production in response to high oil prices were considered as a major driving force to 'ag-flation' in the United States. → Applying a time series econometric tool, called the 'structural vector auto-regression model', we evaluated relationship between ethanol production and corn prices. → The result shows that ethanol production affects corn prices in the short run, while corn prices are lowered as other corn demands (feed for livestock or export demand) decline in the long run.

Collisionless electrostatic shocks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, H.K.; Andersen, S.A.; Jensen, Vagn Orla

1970-01-01

An attempt was made in the laboratory to observe the standing collisionless electrostatic shocks in connection with the bow shock of the earth......An attempt was made in the laboratory to observe the standing collisionless electrostatic shocks in connection with the bow shock of the earth...

Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Creti, Anna; Ftiti, Zied; Guesmi, Khaled

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries: oil-importers and oil-exporters. To this end, we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time-varying dynamic correlation measure between the stock market index and the oil price series. We use the frequency approach proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973), that is the evolutionary co-spectral analysis. This method allows us to distinguish between short-run and medium-run dependence. In order to complete our study by analysing long-run dependence, we use the cointegration procedure developed by Engle and Granger (1987). We find that interdependence between the oil price and the stock market is stronger in exporters' markets than in the importers' ones. - Highlights: • A new time-varying measure for the stock markets and oil price relationship in different horizons. • We propose a new empirical methodology: multivariate frequency approach. • We propose a comparison between oil importing and exporting countries. • We show that oil is not always countercyclical with respect to stock markets. • When high oil prices originate from supply shocks, oil is countercyclical with stock markets

The effect of OPEC policy decisions on oil and stock prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guidi, Marco G.D.; Russell, Alexander; Tarbert, Heather

2006-01-01

This paper presents evidence of the effects of OPEC policy decisions on the US and UK stock markets, as well as on oil prices, during periods of conflict and non-conflict from 1986 to 2004. The outcomes of this study are potentially valuable in assessing future strategies for OPEC policy decisions on oil production targets for its Members. This paper also adds to the strong body of evidence supporting the hypothesis that market returns are influenced by factors that affect business conditions, such as oil price shocks. The key findings are that there are asymmetric reactions to OPEC policy decisions during conflict periods for the US and UK stock markets. During conflict periods, oil markets require time to incorporate OPEC decisions. Conversely, in non-conflict periods the evidence suggests that the oil markets incorporate OPEC decisions efficiently. (Author)

Effects of Atwood number on shock focusing in shock-cylinder interaction

Science.gov (United States)

Ou, Junfeng; Ding, Juchun; Luo, Xisheng; Zhai, Zhigang

2018-02-01

The evolution of shock-accelerated heavy-gas cylinder surrounded by the air with different Atwood numbers (A_t=0.28, 0.50, 0.63) is investigated, concentrating on shock focusing and jet formation. Experimentally, a soap film technique is used to generate an ideal two-dimensional discontinuous gas cylinder with a clear surface, which can guarantee the observation of shock wave movements inside the cylinder. Different Atwood numbers are realized by different mixing ratios of SF_6 and air inside the cylinder. A high-speed schlieren system is adopted to capture the shock motions and jet morphology. Numerical simulations are also performed to provide more information. The results indicate that an inward jet is formed for low Atwood numbers, while an outward jet is generated for high Atwood numbers. Different Atwood numbers will lead to the differences in the relative velocities between the incident shock and the refraction shock, which ultimately results in the differences in shock competition near the downstream pole. The morphology and feature of the jet are closely associated with the position and intensity of shock focusing. The pressure and vorticity contours indicate that the jet formation should be attributed to the pressure pulsation caused by shock focusing, and the jet development is ascribed to the vorticity induction. Finally, a time ratio proposed in the previous work for determining the shock-focusing type is verified by experiments.

Shock parameter calculations at weak interplanetary shock waves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. M. Gloag

2005-02-01

Full Text Available A large set of interplanetary shock waves observed using the Ulysses spacecraft is analysed in order to determine their local parameters. For the first time a detailed analysis is extended to the thermodynamic properties of a large number of events. The intention is to relate the shock parameters to the requirements set by MHD shock theory. A uniform approach is adopted in the selection of up and downstream regions for this analysis and applied to all the shock waves. Initially, the general case of a 3 component adiabatic plasma is considered. However, the calculation of magnetosonic and Alfvénic Mach numbers and the ratio of downstream to upstream entropy produce some unexpected results. In some cases there is no clear increase in entropy across the shock and also the magnetosonic Mach number can be less than 1. It is found that a more discerning use of data along with an empirical value for the polytropic index can raise the distribution of downstream to upstream entropy ratios to a more acceptable level. However, it is also realised that many of these shocks are at the very weakest end of the spectrum and associated phenomena may also contribute to the explanation of these results.

Oil Price and Economic Resilience. Romania’s Case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monica Dudian

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The emerging economies that do not face fiscal, monetary and foreign debt pressures can use the savings generated by lower oil prices for investments in order to generate economic growth. Hence, there is no doubt that the oil price affects the economy’s resilience to shocks. The importance of this impact derives from the magnitude of the price change and its diffusion within the economy. Moreover, the sustainability of any company and of the economy as a whole is subject to the availability and the price of the energy resources. The cost of these resources is an important variable used in the majority of the models regarding the assessment of sustainable development. Therefore, this article examines the impact of the oil price changes on industrial production in Romania. We found that, similar to other countries, in Romania, the growth rate of industrial production responds more strongly to a rise in oil prices. Thus, the oil Brent price has an asymmetric effect on the production evolution. This finding suggests that macroeconomic stabilization is more difficult to achieve when the oil price rises.

World electricity generation, nuclear power, and oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

Striking changes have characterized the world's production and use of energy over the past 15 years. Most prominent have been the wide price fluctuations, politicization of world oil prices and supply, along with profound changes in patterns of production and consumption. This report, based on a study by energy analysts at Science Concepts, Inc., in the United States, traces changes in world energy supply since 1973-74 - the time of the first oil ''price shocks''. In so doing, it identifies important lessons for the future. The study focused in particular on the role of the electric power sector because the growth in fuel use in it has been accomplished without oil. Instead, the growth has directly displaced oil. In the pre-1973 era, the world relied increasingly on oil for many energy applications, including the production of electricity. By 1973, more than on-fourth of the world's electricity was produced by burning oil. By 1987, however, despite a large increase in electric demand, the use of oil was reigned back to generating less than 10% of the world's electricity. Nuclear power played a major role in this turnaround. From 1973-87, analysts at Science Concepts found, nuclear power displaced the burning of 11.7 billion barrels of oil world-wide and avoided US $323 billion in oil purchases

Shock Mechanism Analysis and Simulation of High-Power Hydraulic Shock Wave Simulator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoqiu Xu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The simulation of regular shock wave (e.g., half-sine can be achieved by the traditional rubber shock simulator, but the practical high-power shock wave characterized by steep prepeak and gentle postpeak is hard to be realized by the same. To tackle this disadvantage, a novel high-power hydraulic shock wave simulator based on the live firing muzzle shock principle was proposed in the current work. The influence of the typical shock characteristic parameters on the shock force wave was investigated via both theoretical deduction and software simulation. According to the obtained data compared with the results, in fact, it can be concluded that the developed hydraulic shock wave simulator can be applied to simulate the real condition of the shocking system. Further, the similarity evaluation of shock wave simulation was achieved based on the curvature distance, and the results stated that the simulation method was reasonable and the structural optimization based on software simulation is also beneficial to the increase of efficiency. Finally, the combination of theoretical analysis and simulation for the development of artillery recoil tester is a comprehensive approach in the design and structure optimization of the recoil system.

Locking plate and fibular strut-graft augmentation in the reconstruction of unicameral bone cyst of proximal femur in the paediatric population.

Science.gov (United States)

Jamshidi, Khodamorad; Mirkazemi, Masoud; Izanloo, Azra; Mirzaei, Alireza

2018-01-01

Several therapeutic strategies have been used for managing unicameral bone cyst (UBC) of the proximal femur. However, there is insufficient evidence to support one treatment over another, and the optimal treatment is controversial. This study aims at describing our experience with surgical reconstruction of paediatric UBCs of the proximal femur using a proximal locking plate and fibular strut allograft. In total, 14 consecutive paediatric patients with Dormans types IB (four cases) and IIB (10 cases) UBC were assessed. Mean patient age was 8.6 ± 2.3 years, and mean follow-up period was 41.7 ± 29.8 months. Six patients (42.8%) were referred with a pathologic fracture. Clinical/radiological outcome and complication rates were evaluated at the final follow-up session. No cysts were Capanna's class III (recurrence) or IV (no response). Complete healing (Capanna's class I) was seen in ten cysts, while four other cysts healed with residual radiolucent areas (Capanna's class II). Mean healing period was 14.1 ± 5.1 (9-24 months). One patient had superficial infection, one heterotopic ossification, and one mild coxa vara, and mean Musculoskeletal Tumor Society (MSTS) score was 99.5%. According to our results, locking plate and fibular strut graft in Dormans classification types IB and IIB results in a favorable outcome in managing UBC of the proximal femur in the paediatric population.

Alfven shock trains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malkov, M.A.; Kennel, C.F.; Wu, C.C.; Pellat, R.; Shapiro, V.D.

1991-01-01

The Cohen--Kulsrud--Burgers equation (CKB) is used to consider the nonlinear evolution of resistive, quasiparallel Alfven waves subject to a long-wavelength, plane-polarized, monochromatic instability. The instability saturates by nonlinear steepening, which proceeds until the periodic waveform develops an interior scale length comparable to the dissipation length; a fast or an intermediate shock then forms. The result is a periodic train of Alfven shocks of one or the other type. For propagation strictly parallel to the magnetic field, there will be two shocks per instability wavelength. Numerical integration of the time-dependent CKB equation shows that an initial, small-amplitude growing wave asymptotes to a stable, periodic stationary wave whose analytic solution specifies how the type of shock embedded in the shock train, and the amplitude and speed of the shock train, depend on the strength and phase of the instability. Waveforms observed upstream of the Earth's bowshock and cometary shocks resemble those calculated here

Spherical strong-shock generation for shock-ignition inertial fusion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Theobald, W.; Seka, W.; Lafon, M.; Anderson, K. S.; Hohenberger, M.; Marshall, F. J.; Michel, D. T.; Solodov, A. A.; Stoeckl, C.; Edgell, D. H.; Yaakobi, B.; Shvydky, A. [Laboratory for Laser Energetics and Fusion Science Center, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York 14623 (United States); Nora, R.; Betti, R. [Laboratory for Laser Energetics and Fusion Science Center, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York 14623 (United States); Department of Mechanical Engineering and Department of Physics, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York 14623 (United States); Casner, A.; Reverdin, C. [CEA, DAM, DIF, F-91297 Arpajon (France); Ribeyre, X.; Vallet, A. [Université de Bordeaux-CNRS-CEA, CELIA (Centre Lasers Intenses et Applications) UMR 5107 F-33400 Talence (France); Peebles, J.; Beg, F. N. [University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093 (United States); and others

2015-05-15

Recent experiments on the Laboratory for Laser Energetics' OMEGA laser have been carried out to produce strong shocks in solid spherical targets with direct laser illumination. The shocks are launched at pressures of several hundred Mbars and reach Gbar upon convergence. The results are relevant to the validation of the shock-ignition scheme and to the development of an OMEGA experimental platform to study material properties at Gbar pressures. The experiments investigate the strength of the ablation pressure and the hot-electron production at incident laser intensities of ∼2 to 6 × 10{sup 15 }W/cm{sup 2} and demonstrate ablation pressures exceeding 300 Mbar, which is crucial to developing a shock-ignition target design for the National Ignition Facility. The timing of the x-ray flash from shock convergence in the center of the solid plastic target is used to infer the ablation and shock pressures. Laser–plasma instabilities produce hot-electrons with a moderate temperature (<100 keV). The instantaneous conversion efficiencies of laser power into hot-electron power reached up to ∼15% in the intensity spike. The large amount of hot electrons is correlated with an earlier x-ray flash and a strong increase in its magnitude. This suggests that hot electrons contribute to the augmentation of the shock strength.

Is shock index associated with outcome in children with sepsis/septic shock?*.

Science.gov (United States)

Yasaka, Yuki; Khemani, Robinder G; Markovitz, Barry P

2013-10-01

To investigate the association between PICU shock index (the ratio of heart rate to systolic blood pressure) and PICU mortality in children with sepsis/septic shock. To explore cutoff values for shock index for ICU mortality, how change in shock index over the first 6 hours of ICU admission is associated with outcome, and how the use of vasoactive therapy may affect shock index and its association with outcome. Retrospective cohort. Single-center tertiary PICU. Five hundred forty-four children with the diagnosis of sepsis/septic shock. None. From January 2003 to December 2009, 544 children met International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference of 2005 criteria for sepsis/septic shock. Overall mortality was 23.7%. Among all patients, hourly shock index was associated with mortality: odds ratio of ICU mortality at 0 hour, 1.08, 95% CI (1.04-1.12); odds ratio at 1 hour, 1.09 (1.04-1.13); odds ratio at 2 hours, 1.09 (1.05-1.13); and odds ratio at 6 hours, 1.11 (1.06-1.15). When stratified by age, early shock index was associated with mortality only in children 1-3 and more than or equal to 12 years old. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in age 1-3 and more than or equal to 12 years old for shock index at admission was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.58-0.80) and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.52-0.72) respectively, indicating a fair predictive marker. Although higher shock index was associated with increased risk of mortality, there was no particular cutoff value with adequate positive or negative likelihood ratios to identify mortality in any age group of children. The improvement of shock index in the first 6 hours of ICU admission was not associated with outcome when analyzed in all patients. However, among patients whose shock index were above the 50th percentile at ICU admission for each age group, improvement of shock index was associated with lower ICU mortality in children between 1-3 and more than or equal to 12 years old (p = 0.02 and p = 0.03, respectively). When

Hypersonic Engine Leading Edge Experiments in a High Heat Flux, Supersonic Flow Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Gladden, Herbert J.; Melis, Matthew E.

1994-01-01

A major concern in advancing the state-of-the-art technologies for hypersonic vehicles is the development of an aeropropulsion system capable of withstanding the sustained high thermal loads expected during hypersonic flight. Three aerothermal load related concerns are the boundary layer transition from laminar to turbulent flow, articulating panel seals in high temperature environments, and strut (or cowl) leading edges with shock-on-shock interactions. A multidisciplinary approach is required to address these technical concerns. A hydrogen/oxygen rocket engine heat source has been developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center as one element in a series of facilities at national laboratories designed to experimentally evaluate the heat transfer and structural response of the strut (or cowl) leading edge. A recent experimental program conducted in this facility is discussed and related to cooling technology capability. The specific objective of the experiment discussed is to evaluate the erosion and oxidation characteristics of a coating on a cowl leading edge (or strut leading edge) in a supersonic, high heat flux environment. Heat transfer analyses of a similar leading edge concept cooled with gaseous hydrogen is included to demonstrate the complexity of the problem resulting from plastic deformation of the structures. Macro-photographic data from a coated leading edge model show progressive degradation over several thermal cycles at aerothermal conditions representative of high Mach number flight.

Biomass shock pretreatment

Science.gov (United States)

Holtzapple, Mark T.; Madison, Maxine Jones; Ramirez, Rocio Sierra; Deimund, Mark A.; Falls, Matthew; Dunkelman, John J.

2014-07-01

Methods and apparatus for treating biomass that may include introducing a biomass to a chamber; exposing the biomass in the chamber to a shock event to produce a shocked biomass; and transferring the shocked biomass from the chamber. In some aspects, the method may include pretreating the biomass with a chemical before introducing the biomass to the chamber and/or after transferring shocked biomass from the chamber.

Multivariate FIGARCH and long memory process: evidence of oil price markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadhem Selmi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Oil price markets can benefit from a better considerate of how shocks can affect volatility through time. This study assesses the impact of structural changes and outliers on volatility persistence of two crude oil markets WTI and Brent oil price between January 1, 1996 and March 17, 2014. First, we identify the FIGARCH process proposed by Baillie et al. (1996 [Baillie, R.T., Bollerslev, T., & Mikkelsen, H.O., (1996, Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 74, 3-30.] and investigate some of its statistical proprieties and then incorporate this information into the volatility modelling. We also show that outliers can bias the estimation of the persistence of the volatility. Taking into account outliers on the volatility modelling process improve the understanding of volatility in crude oil markets.

Cosmic-ray shock acceleration in oblique MHD shocks

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, G. M.; Drury, L. OC.; Volk, H. J.

1986-01-01

A one-dimensional, steady-state hydrodynamical model of cosmic-ray acceleration at oblique MHD shocks is presented. Upstream of the shock the incoming thermal plasma is subject to the adverse pressure gradient of the accelerated particles, the J x B force, as well as the thermal gas pressure gradient. The efficiency of the acceleration of cosmic-rays at the shock as a function of the upstream magnetic field obliquity and upstream plasma beta is investigated. Astrophysical applications of the results are briefly discussed.

Influence of water conductivity on shock waves generated by underwater electrical wire explosion

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Ben; Wang, Deguo; Guo, Yanbao

2018-01-01

The new application of electrical explosion of wire (EEW) used in petroleum industry is to enhance oil recovery (EOR). Because of the complex environment underground, the effect of underground water conductivity on EEW should be considered. This work describes the effect of water conductivities on discharge current, voltage and shock waves. It was found that the effect of water conductivity contains two parts. One is the shunt effect of saline water, which can be considered as a parallel load with the copper wire between the electrodes connected to the discharge circuit. The peak pressure of shock waves are gradually decrease with the increase of water conductivity. The other is the current loss through saline water directly to the ground ends without flowing through the electrodes. The shunt effect is the main factor affecting the wire discharge process. As the charging voltage increased, the energy loss caused by these two parts are all reduced. These indicate that increasing the charging voltage to a certain value will increase the energy efficiency to generate a more powerful shock waves in conductive water.

The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fleming, J.; Ostdiek, B. [Jones Graduate School of Management, Rice University, MS 531, P.O. Box 1892 Houston, TX (United States)

1999-04-01

We examine the effects of energy derivatives trading on the crude oil market. There is a common public and regulatory perception that derivative securities increase volatility and can have a destabilizing effect on the underlying market. Consistent with this view, we find an abnormal increase in volatility for three consecutive weeks following the introduction of NYMEX crude oil futures. While there is also evidence of a longer-term volatility increase, this is likely due to exogenous factors, such as the continuing deregulation of the energy markets. Subsequent introductions of crude oil options and derivatives on other energy commodities have no effect on crude oil volatility. We also examine the effects of derivatives trading on the depth and liquidity of the crude oil market. This analysis reveals a strong inverse relation between the open interest in crude oil futures and spot market volatility. Specifically, when open interest is greater, the volatility shock associated with a given unexpected increase in volume is much smaller. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, J.; Ostdiek, B.

1999-01-01

We examine the effects of energy derivatives trading on the crude oil market. There is a common public and regulatory perception that derivative securities increase volatility and can have a destabilizing effect on the underlying market. Consistent with this view, we find an abnormal increase in volatility for three consecutive weeks following the introduction of NYMEX crude oil futures. While there is also evidence of a longer-term volatility increase, this is likely due to exogenous factors, such as the continuing deregulation of the energy markets. Subsequent introductions of crude oil options and derivatives on other energy commodities have no effect on crude oil volatility. We also examine the effects of derivatives trading on the depth and liquidity of the crude oil market. This analysis reveals a strong inverse relation between the open interest in crude oil futures and spot market volatility. Specifically, when open interest is greater, the volatility shock associated with a given unexpected increase in volume is much smaller. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

77 FR 30185 - Airworthiness Directives; Bombardier, Inc. Airplanes

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-22

... corrective actions if necessary; and, for certain MLG shock strut assemblies, replacement or rework of the... Replacement or Rework of the Apex Nut for Model CL-600- 2C10 Airplanes This paragraph restates the... rework the apex nut, in accordance with Part B of the Accomplishment Instructions of Bombardier Service...

PLUNGING OIL PRICES IMPACT MALAYSIA’S AND INDONESIA’S ECONOMY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chung Tin Fah

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Oil has a profound impact on the world economy. This study examines the impact of changes (falling in oil prices on the two oil producing ASEAN countries – Malaysia and Indonesia using quarterly data from 2005:Q1 to 2014:Q4. A cointegration analysis using an autoregressive distributed lag equation (ARDL is conducted between oil and the Malaysian and Indonesian economy. Next, single equations are estimated on the impact of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables, followed by a VAR formulation to trace the impact of oil price using impulse response function and variance decomposition. The single equation estimates indicate that real oil prices have a significant positive impact on Malaysia/Indonesia GDP, while it is insignificant on inflation rate and real exchange rate. Using an unrestricted VAR model, real oil price growth shocks have positive and negative response on the growth of Malaysia GDP, Indonesia GDP and US GDP. However, the negative response is found more significant for the growth of Indonesia GDP, while the growth of US GDP has a larger influence on Malaysia GDP as compared to Indonesia GDP. Changes in real oil price are less impactful on Malaysia government expenditure and Malaysian Ringgit, compared to inflation rate and net exports.

Numerical analysis and design optimization of supersonic after-burning with strut fuel injectors for scramjet engines

Science.gov (United States)

Candon, M. J.; Ogawa, H.

2018-06-01

Scramjets are a class of hypersonic airbreathing engine that offer promise for economical, reliable and high-speed access-to-space and atmospheric transport. The expanding flow in the scramjet nozzle comprises of unburned hydrogen. An after-burning scheme can be used to effectively utilize the remaining hydrogen by supplying additional oxygen into the nozzle, aiming to augment the thrust. This paper presents the results of a single-objective design optimization for a strut fuel injection scheme considering four design variables with the objective of maximizing thrust augmentation. Thrust is found to be augmented significantly owing to a combination of contributions from aerodynamic and combustion effects. Further understanding and physical insights have been gained by performing variance-based global sensitivity analysis, scrutinizing the nozzle flowfields, analyzing the distributions and contributions of the forces acting on the nozzle wall, and examining the combustion efficiency.

The future of oil and hydrocarbon man

CERN Document Server

Campbell, Colin

1999-01-01

Man appeared on the planet about four million years ago, and by 1850 numbered about one billion Ten came Hydrocarbon man. World population has since increased six-fold. After the oil price shocks of the 1970s, people asked "when will production peak?". It is not easy to answer this question because of the very poor database. Reserves and the many different hydrocarbon categories are poorly defined, reporting practices are ambiguous, revisions are not backdated...

Assessing the Impact of Higher Oil Prices in Latin America

OpenAIRE

World Bank

2012-01-01

For some Latin American countries - especially, the oil importers in the Caribbean - rising energy prices could pose a significant threat to their current account sustainability, particularly if they are accompanied by other negative shocks. In some countries the fiscal costs associated with subsidies to protect domestic consumers have been considerable so far. Hence, a better understandin...

Shock Producers and Shock Absorbers in the Crisis

OpenAIRE

Sinn, Hans-Werner

2009-01-01

It is not surprising that the U.S. has been by far the world’s largest shock producer in this crisis. The big shock absorbers on the other hand were Japan, Russia and Germany, whose exports shrank more than their imports.

The impact of oil price increase on the Euro area's growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamet, Jean-Francois

2008-01-01

In a first part, the author of this article comments the increase of oil prices since 2002 and notices that the magnitude is similar to that noticed during the 1973 and 1979 oil-shocks. He outlines that several factors have limited the impact of the oil price increase in the Euro area, notably the Euro appreciation with respect to the dollar: the Euro appreciation has absorbed half of the oil price increase, the oil intensity of the European economy has decreased, a tax damping effect has been noticed, and more competitive markets limit the inflation risk. The author assesses the impact of oil price increase on the growth of the Euro zone since 2002: recessionary effect of oil price increase, an actual impact but limited by the appreciation of Euro. Perspectives for 2008 are discussed: predictable oil price evolution and its impact of growth in 2008, policy and action of the ECB (European Central Bank) in front of the impact of oil price increase on inflation and on activity

Shock loading predictions from application of indicial theory to shock-turbulence interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Keefe, Laurence R.; Nixon, David

1991-01-01

A sequence of steps that permits prediction of some of the characteristics of the pressure field beneath a fluctuating shock wave from knowledge of the oncoming turbulent boundary layer is presented. The theory first predicts the power spectrum and pdf of the position and velocity of the shock wave, which are then used to obtain the shock frequency distribution, and the pdf of the pressure field, as a function of position within the interaction region. To test the validity of the crucial assumption of linearity, the indicial response of a normal shock is calculated from numerical simulation. This indicial response, after being fit by a simple relaxation model, is used to predict the shock position and velocity spectra, along with the shock passage frequency distribution. The low frequency portion of the shock spectra, where most of the energy is concentrated, is satisfactorily predicted by this method.

Restructuring: new relationships between the oil companies and the upstream oil firms; Alliances et restructurations: nouvelles relations entre maitres d'oeuvre et parapetrolier

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barreau, S

2001-11-01

Since the 1986 oil shock, international oil companies have focused on their base competencies, concentrating on activities viewed as their core businesses and steadily increasing the number of tasks to be subcontracted to the upstream oil and gas service sector. The upstream oil and gas service companies had to be restructured to face this new challenge. The strategies they launched at the end of the 80's were varied. Some firms became largely integrated (Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, Halliburton) whereas other firms chose to broaden their range of services. However generally, they opted for external investment which led to an important wave of mergers and acquisitions. The first part characterizes the upstream oil and gas sector by introducing the main oil and gas service firms and their recent strategic evolution. This concludes with both an economic valuation and a typology of attempted growth strategies. To illustrate this, a matrix has been created to characterise the dynamic paths of the oil and gas service firms. The purpose of the second part is to consider the economic theories related to industrial strategies. The strategies of innovation, market protection, vertical integration and diversification have been studied to illustrate the main conclusion which is that the aim of all these strategies was to change the relationships between the oil companies and the upstream oil and gas service firms. (author)

Shock Isolation Elements Testing for High Input Loadings. Volume II. Foam Shock Isolation Elements.

Science.gov (United States)

SHOCK ABSORBERS ), (*GUIDED MISSILE SILOS, SHOCK ABSORBERS ), (*EXPANDED PLASTICS, (*SHOCK(MECHANICS), REDUCTION), TEST METHODS, SHOCK WAVES, STRAIN(MECHANICS), LOADS(FORCES), MATHEMATICAL MODELS, NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS, HARDENING.

Oil price and food price volatility dynamics: The case of Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ijeoma C. Nwoko

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This study examines the long and short run relationships between oil price and food price volatility as well as the causal link between them. The study used annual food price volatility index from FAO from 2000 to 2013 and crude oil price from U.S. Energy Information and Administration (EIA from 2000 to 2013. The Johansen and Jesulius co-integration test revealed that there is a long run relationship between oil price and domestic food price volatility. The vector error correction model indicated a positive and significant short run relationship between oil price and food price volatility. The Granger causality test revealed a unidirectional causality with causality running from oil price to food price volatility but not vice versa. It is recommended that policies and interventions that will help reduce uncertainty about food prices such as improved market information, trade policies and investment in research and development among others should be encouraged. Also to reduce the effect of oil price shock, it is recommended that government should subsidise pump price of refined oil, seek alternative sources of energy and there should be less dependence on oil for fertilizer production.

Gravitational shock waves and extreme magnetomaterial shock waves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lichnerowicz, Andre.

1975-01-01

Within an astrophysical context corresponding to high densities, a self-gravitating model is studied, which is the set of an extreme material medium of infinite conductivity and of a magnetic field. Corresponding shock waves generate necessarily, in general, gravitational shock waves [fr

Chemical composition of fennel essential oil and its impact on Staphylococcus aureus exotoxin production.

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Jiazhang; Li, Hongen; Su, Hongwei; Dong, Jing; Luo, Mingjing; Wang, Jianfeng; Leng, Bingfeng; Deng, Yanhong; Liu, Juxiong; Deng, Xuming

2012-04-01

In this study, fennel oil was isolated by hydrodistillation, and the chemical composition was determined by gas chromatography/mass spectral analysis. The antimicrobial activity of fennel oil against Staphylococcus aureus was evaluated by broth microdilution. A haemolysis assay, tumour necrosis factor (TNF) release assay, western blot, and real-time reverse transcription (RT)-PCR were applied to investigate the influence of fennel oil on the production of S. aureus virulence-related exoproteins. The data show that fennel oil, which contains a high level of trans-anethole, was active against S. aureus, with MICs ranging from 64 to 256 μg/ml. Furthermore, fennel oil, when used at subinhibitory concentrations, could dose-dependently decrease the expression of S. aureus exotoxins, including α-toxin, Staphylococcal enterotoxins (SEs) and toxic shock syndrome toxin 1 (TSST-1).

Three-dimensional strutted graphene grown by substrate-free sugar blowing for high-power-density supercapacitors

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xuebin; Zhang, Yuanjian; Zhi, Chunyi; Wang, Xi; Tang, Daiming; Xu, Yibin; Weng, Qunhong; Jiang, Xiangfen; Mitome, Masanori; Golberg, Dmitri; Bando, Yoshio

2013-12-01

Three-dimensional graphene architectures in the macroworld can in principle maintain all the extraordinary nanoscale properties of individual graphene flakes. However, current 3D graphene products suffer from poor electrical conductivity, low surface area and insufficient mechanical strength/elasticity; the interconnected self-supported reproducible 3D graphenes remain unavailable. Here we report a sugar-blowing approach based on a polymeric predecessor to synthesize a 3D graphene bubble network. The bubble network consists of mono- or few-layered graphitic membranes that are tightly glued, rigidly fixed and spatially scaffolded by micrometre-scale graphitic struts. Such a topological configuration provides intimate structural interconnectivities, freeway for electron/phonon transports, huge accessible surface area, as well as robust mechanical properties. The graphene network thus overcomes the drawbacks of presently available 3D graphene products and opens up a wide horizon for diverse practical usages, for example, high-power high-energy electrochemical capacitors, as highlighted in this work.

Three-dimensional strutted graphene grown by substrate-free sugar blowing for high-power-density supercapacitors

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xuebin; Zhang, Yuanjian; Zhi, Chunyi; Wang, Xi; Tang, Daiming; Xu, Yibin; Weng, Qunhong; Jiang, Xiangfen; Mitome, Masanori; Golberg, Dmitri; Bando, Yoshio

2013-01-01

Three-dimensional graphene architectures in the macroworld can in principle maintain all the extraordinary nanoscale properties of individual graphene flakes. However, current 3D graphene products suffer from poor electrical conductivity, low surface area and insufficient mechanical strength/elasticity; the interconnected self-supported reproducible 3D graphenes remain unavailable. Here we report a sugar-blowing approach based on a polymeric predecessor to synthesize a 3D graphene bubble network. The bubble network consists of mono- or few-layered graphitic membranes that are tightly glued, rigidly fixed and spatially scaffolded by micrometre-scale graphitic struts. Such a topological configuration provides intimate structural interconnectivities, freeway for electron/phonon transports, huge accessible surface area, as well as robust mechanical properties. The graphene network thus overcomes the drawbacks of presently available 3D graphene products and opens up a wide horizon for diverse practical usages, for example, high-power high-energy electrochemical capacitors, as highlighted in this work. PMID:24336225

76 FR 20498 - Airworthiness Directives; Bombardier, Inc. Model CL-600-2C10 (Regional Jet Series 700, 701 & 702...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-13

... Friday, except Federal holidays. The AD docket contains the NPRM, the regulatory evaluation, any comments... 49000-11 through 49000-22 inclusive and a S/N 0001 through 0284 inclusive is installed. A review of... Link Apex Joint (h) For any MLG shock strut assembly having P/Ns 49000-11 through 49000-22 inclusive...

Quasilinear simulations of interplanetary shocks and Earth's bow shock

Science.gov (United States)

Afanasiev, Alexandr; Battarbee, Markus; Ganse, Urs; Vainio, Rami; Palmroth, Minna; Pfau-Kempf, Yann; Hoilijoki, Sanni; von Alfthan, Sebastian

2016-04-01

We have developed a new self-consistent Monte Carlo simulation model for particle acceleration in shocks. The model includes a prescribed large-scale magnetic field and plasma density, temperature and velocity profiles and a self-consistently computed incompressible ULF foreshock under the quasilinear approximation. Unlike previous analytical treatments, our model is time dependent and takes full account of the anisotropic particle distributions and scattering in the wave-particle interaction process. We apply the model to the problem of particle acceleration at traveling interplanetary (IP) shocks and Earth's bow shock and compare the results with hybrid-Vlasov simulations and spacecraft observations. A qualitative agreement in terms of spectral shape of the magnetic fluctuations and the polarization of the unstable mode is found between the models and the observations. We will quantify the differences of the models and explore the region of validity of the quasilinear approach in terms of shock parameters. We will also compare the modeled IP shocks and the bow shock, identifying the similarities and differences in the spectrum of accelerated particles and waves in these scenarios. The work has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324 (HESPERIA). The Academy of Finland is thanked for financial support. We acknowledge the computational resources provided by CSC - IT Centre for Science Ltd., Espoo.

Individual and combined effects of organic, toxic, and hydraulic shocks on sequencing batch reactor in treating petroleum refinery wastewater

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mizzouri, Nashwan Sh., E-mail: nashwan_mizzouri@yahoo.com [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Malaya, Lembah Pantai, 50603 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia); Department of Civil Engineering, University of Duhok, Kurdistan (Iraq); Shaaban, Md Ghazaly [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Malaya, Lembah Pantai, 50603 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

2013-04-15

Highlights: ► This research focuses on the combined impact of shock loads on the PRWW treatment. ► System failure resulted when combined shock of organic and hydraulic was applied. ► Recovery was achieved by replacing glucose with PRWW and OLR was decreased to half. ► Worst COD removals were 68.9, and 57.8% for organic, and combined shocks. -- Abstract: This study analyzes the effects of toxic, hydraulic, and organic shocks on the performance of a lab-scale sequencing batch reactor (SBR) with a capacity of 5 L. Petroleum refinery wastewater (PRWW) was treated with an organic loading rate (OLR) of approximately 0.3 kg chemical oxygen demand (COD)/kg MLSS d at 12.8 h hydraulic retention time (HRT). A considerable variation in the COD was observed for organic, toxic, hydraulic, and combined shocks, and the worst values observed were 68.9, 77.1, 70.2, and 57.8%, respectively. Improved control of toxic shock loads of 10 and 20 mg/L of chromium (VI) was identified. The system was adversely affected by the organic shock when a shock load thrice the normal value was used, and this behavior was repeated when the hydraulic shock was 4.8 h HRT. The empirical recovery period was greater than the theoretical period because of the inhibitory effects of phenols, sulfides, high oil, and grease in the PRWW. The system recovery rates from the shocks were in the following order: toxic, organic, hydraulic, and combined shocks. System failure occurred when the combined shocks of organic and hydraulic were applied. The system was resumed by replacing the PRWW with glucose, and the OLR was reduced to half its initial value.

Multiple spacecraft observations of interplanetary shocks Four spacecraft determination of shock normals

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, C. T.; Mellott, M. M.; Smith, E. J.; King, J. H.

1983-01-01

ISEE 1, 2, 3, IMP 8, and Prognoz 7 observations of interplanetary shocks in 1978 and 1979 provide five instances where a single shock is observed by four spacecraft. These observations are used to determine best-fit normals for these five shocks. In addition to providing well-documented shocks for future investigations these data allow the evaluation of the accuracy of several shock normal determination techniques. When the angle between upstream and downstream magnetic field is greater than 20 deg, magnetic coplanarity can be an accurate single spacecraft method. However, no technique based solely on the magnetic measurements at one or multiple sites was universally accurate. Thus, the use of overdetermined shock normal solutions, utilizing plasma measurements, separation vectors, and time delays together with magnetic constraints, is recommended whenever possible.

Are Credit Shocks Supply or Demand Shocks?

OpenAIRE

Bijapur, Mohan

2013-01-01

This paper provides new insights into the relationship between the supply of credit and the macroeconomy. We present evidence that credit shocks constitute shocks to aggregate supply in that they have a permanent effect on output and cause inflation to rise in the short term. Our results also suggest that the effects on aggregate supply have grown stronger in recent decades.

Miniature shock tube for laser driven shocks.

Science.gov (United States)

Busquet, Michel; Barroso, Patrice; Melse, Thierry; Bauduin, Daniel

2010-02-01

We describe in this paper the design of a miniature shock tube (smaller than 1 cm(3)) that can be placed in a vacuum vessel and allows transverse optical probing and longitudinal backside extreme ultraviolet emission spectroscopy in the 100-500 A range. Typical application is the study of laser launched radiative shocks, in the framework of what is called "laboratory astrophysics."

Restructuring: new relationships between the oil companies and the upstream oil firms; Alliances et restructurations: nouvelles relations entre maitres d'oeuvre et parapetrolier

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barreau, S

2001-11-01

Since the 1986 oil shock, international oil companies have focused on their base competencies, concentrating on activities viewed as their core businesses and steadily increasing the number of tasks to be subcontracted to the upstream oil and gas service sector. The upstream oil and gas service companies had to be restructured to face this new challenge. The strategies they launched at the end of the 80's were varied. Some firms became largely integrated (Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, Halliburton) whereas other firms chose to broaden their range of services. However generally, they opted for external investment which led to an important wave of mergers and acquisitions. The first part characterizes the upstream oil and gas sector by introducing the main oil and gas service firms and their recent strategic evolution. This concludes with both an economic valuation and a typology of attempted growth strategies. To illustrate this, a matrix has been created to characterise the dynamic paths of the oil and gas service firms. The purpose of the second part is to consider the economic theories related to industrial strategies. The strategies of innovation, market protection, vertical integration and diversification have been studied to illustrate the main conclusion which is that the aim of all these strategies was to change the relationships between the oil companies and the upstream oil and gas service firms. (author)

Modelling socio-metabolic transitions: The historical take-off, the acceleration of fossil fuel use, and the 1970s oil price shock - the first trigger of a future decline?

Science.gov (United States)

Wiedenhofer, Dominik; Rovenskaya, Elena; Krausmann, Fridolin; Haas, Willi; Fischer-Kowalski, Marina

2013-04-01

By talking about socio-metabolic transitions, we talk about changes in the energy base of socio-economic systems, leading to fundamental changes in social and environmental relations. This refers to the historical shift from a biomass-based (agrarian) economy to a fossil fuel based (industrial) economy just as much as to a future shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy carriers. In our presentation, • We will first show that this pattern of transition can be identified for most high income industrial countries: the later the transition started, the faster it proceeded, and the turning point to stabilization of metabolic rates in all of them happened in the early 1970ies. Due to the inherent non-linearity of this process, two approaches will be aplied to estimate parameters for the starting point, transition speed and saturation level: firstly a combination of an expontential and a generalized logistic function and secondly a Gompertz function. For both an iterative test procedure is applied to find the global minimum of the residual error for the whole function and all its parameters. This theory-based approach allows us to apply a robust methodology across all cases, thereby yielding results which can be generalized. • Next, we will show that this was not just a "historical" socio-ecological transition, however. Currently, a substantial number of countries comprising more than half of the world's population are following a similar transitional pathway at an ever accelerating pace. Based on empirical data on physical resource use and the above sketched methodology, we can show that these so-called emerging economies are currently in the take-off or acceleration phase of the very same transition. • Apart from these "endogenous" processes of socio-metabolic transition, we will investigate the effect of external shocks and their impact on the dynamics of energy and materials use. The first such shock we will explore is the oil crisis of 1972 that possibly

Radiation- and pair-loaded shocks

Science.gov (United States)

Lyutikov, Maxim

2018-06-01

We consider the structure of mildly relativistic shocks in dense media, taking into account the radiation and pair loading, and diffusive radiation energy transfer within the flow. For increasing shock velocity (increasing post-shock temperature), the first important effect is the efficient energy redistribution by radiation within the shock that leads to the appearance of an isothermal jump, whereby the flow reaches the final state through a discontinuous isothermal transition. The isothermal jump, on scales much smaller than the photon diffusion length, consists of a weak shock and a quick relaxation to the isothermal conditions. Highly radiation-dominated shocks do not form isothermal jump. Pair production can mildly increase the overall shock compression ratio to ≈10 (4 for matter-dominated shocks and 7 of the radiation-dominated shocks).

INTERFERENCE OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHOCK WAVES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. V. Bulat

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Subject of study.We consider interference of unidirectional shock waves or, as they are called, catching up shock waves. The scope of work is to give a classification of the shock-wave structures that arise in this type of interaction of shock waves, and the area of their existence. Intersection of unidirectional shock waves results in arising of a shock-wave structure at the intersection point, which contains the main shock wave, tangential discontinuity and one more reflected gas-dynamic discontinuity of unknown beforehand type. The problem of determining the type of reflected discontinuity is the main problem that one has to solve in the study of catching shock waves interference. Main results.The paper presents the pictures of shock-wave structures arising at the interaction of catching up shock waves. The areas with a regular and irregular unidirectional interaction of shocks are described. Characteristic shock-wave structures are of greatest interest, where reflected gas-dynamic discontinuity degenerates into discontinuous characteristics. Such structures have a number of extreme properties. We have found the areas of existence for such shock-wave structures. There are also areas in which the steady-state solution is not available. The latter has determined revival of interest for the theoretical study of the problem, because the facts of sudden shock-wave structure destruction inside the air intake of supersonic aircrafts at high Mach numbers have been discovered. Practical significance.The theory of interference for unidirectional shock waves and design procedure are usable in the design of supersonic air intakes. It is also relevant for application possibility investigation of catching up oblique shock waves to create overcompressed detonation in perspective detonation air-jet and rocket engines.

Shock/shock interactions between bodies and wings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gaoxiang XIANG

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the Shock/Shock Interactions (SSI between the body and wing of aircraft in supersonic flows. The body is simplified to a flat wedge and the wing is assumed to be a sharp wing. The theoretical spatial dimension reduction method, which transforms the 3D problem into a 2D one, is used to analyze the SSI between the body and wing. The temperature and pressure behind the Mach stem induced by the wing and body are obtained, and the wave configurations in the corner are determined. Numerical validations are conducted by solving the inviscid Euler equations in 3D with a Non-oscillatory and Non-free-parameters Dissipative (NND finite difference scheme. Good agreements between the theoretical and numerical results are obtained. Additionally, the effects of the wedge angle and sweep angle on wave configurations and flow field are considered numerically and theoretically. The influences of wedge angle are significant, whereas the effects of sweep angle on wave configurations are negligible. This paper provides useful information for the design and thermal protection of aircraft in supersonic and hypersonic flows. Keywords: Body and wing, Flow field, Hypersonic flow, Shock/shock interaction, Wave configurations

STEREO interplanetary shocks and foreshocks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blanco-Cano, X. [Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, CU, Coyoacan 04510 DF (Mexico); Kajdic, P. [IRAP-University of Toulouse, CNRS, Toulouse (France); Aguilar-Rodriguez, E. [Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Morelia (Mexico); Russell, C. T. [ESS and IGPP, University of California, Los Angeles, 603 Charles Young Drive, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Jian, L. K. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD and University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Luhmann, J. G. [SSL, University of California Berkeley (United States)

2013-06-13

We use STEREO data to study shocks driven by stream interactions and the waves associated with them. During the years of the extended solar minimum 2007-2010, stream interaction shocks have Mach numbers between 1.1-3.8 and {theta}{sub Bn}{approx}20-86 Degree-Sign . We find a variety of waves, including whistlers and low frequency fluctuations. Upstream whistler waves may be generated at the shock and upstream ultra low frequency (ULF) waves can be driven locally by ion instabilities. The downstream wave spectra can be formed by both, locally generated perturbations, and shock transmitted waves. We find that many quasiperpendicular shocks can be accompanied by ULF wave and ion foreshocks, which is in contrast to Earth's bow shock. Fluctuations downstream of quasi-parallel shocks tend to have larger amplitudes than waves downstream of quasi-perpendicular shocks. Proton foreshocks of shocks driven by stream interactions have extensions dr {<=}0.05 AU. This is smaller than foreshock extensions for ICME driven shocks. The difference in foreshock extensions is related to the fact that ICME driven shocks are formed closer to the Sun and therefore begin to accelerate particles very early in their existence, while stream interaction shocks form at {approx}1 AU and have been producing suprathermal particles for a shorter time.

STEREO interplanetary shocks and foreshocks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanco-Cano, X.; Kajdič, P.; Aguilar-Rodríguez, E.; Russell, C. T.; Jian, L. K.; Luhmann, J. G.

2013-01-01

We use STEREO data to study shocks driven by stream interactions and the waves associated with them. During the years of the extended solar minimum 2007-2010, stream interaction shocks have Mach numbers between 1.1-3.8 and θ Bn ∼20-86°. We find a variety of waves, including whistlers and low frequency fluctuations. Upstream whistler waves may be generated at the shock and upstream ultra low frequency (ULF) waves can be driven locally by ion instabilities. The downstream wave spectra can be formed by both, locally generated perturbations, and shock transmitted waves. We find that many quasiperpendicular shocks can be accompanied by ULF wave and ion foreshocks, which is in contrast to Earth's bow shock. Fluctuations downstream of quasi-parallel shocks tend to have larger amplitudes than waves downstream of quasi-perpendicular shocks. Proton foreshocks of shocks driven by stream interactions have extensions dr ≤0.05 AU. This is smaller than foreshock extensions for ICME driven shocks. The difference in foreshock extensions is related to the fact that ICME driven shocks are formed closer to the Sun and therefore begin to accelerate particles very early in their existence, while stream interaction shocks form at ∼1 AU and have been producing suprathermal particles for a shorter time.

Costs of U.S. Oil Dependence: 2005 Update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greene, D.L.

2005-03-08

For thirty years, dependence on oil has been a significant problem for the United States. Oil dependence is not simply a matter of how much oil we import. It is a syndrome, a combination of the vulnerability of the U.S. economy to higher oil prices and oil price shocks and a concentration of world oil supplies in a small group of oil producing states that are willing and able to use their market power to influence world oil prices. Although there are vitally important political and military dimensions to the oil dependence problem, this report focuses on its direct economic costs. These costs are the transfer of wealth from the United States to oil producing countries, the loss of economic potential due to oil prices elevated above competitive market levels, and disruption costs caused by sudden and large oil price movements. Several enhancements have been made to methods used in past studies to estimate these costs, and estimates of key parameters have been updated based on the most recent literature. It is estimated that oil dependence has cost the U.S. economy $3.6 trillion (constant 2000 dollars) since 1970, with the bulk of the losses occurring between 1979 and 1986. However, if oil prices in 2005 average $35-$45/bbl, as recently predicted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil dependence costs in 2005 will be in the range of $150-$250 billion. Costs are relatively evenly divided between the three components. A sensitivity analysis reflecting uncertainty about all the key parameters required to estimate oil dependence costs suggests that a reasonable range of uncertainty for the total costs of U.S. oil dependence over the past 30 years is $2-$6 trillion (constant 2000 dollars). Reckoned in terms of present value using a discount rate of 4.5%, the costs of U.S. oil dependence since 1970 are $8 trillion, with a reasonable range of uncertainty of $5 to $13 trillion.

Collisionless shock waves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sagdeev, R.Z.; Kennel, C.F.

1991-01-01

Collisionless shocks cannot occur naturally on the earth, because nearly all matter here consists of electrically neutral atoms and molecules. In space, however, high temperatures and ultraviolet radiation from hot stars decompose atoms into their constituent nuclei and electrons, producing a soup of electrically charged particles known as a plasma. Plasma physicists proposed that the collective electrical and magnetic properties of plasmas could produce interactions that take the place of collisions and permit shocks to form. In 1964 the theoretical work found its first experimental confirmation. Norman F. Ness and his colleagues at the Goddard Space Flight Center, using data collected from the iMP-1 spacecraft, detected clear signs that a collisionless shock exists where the solar wind encounters the earth's magnetic field. More recent research has demonstrated that collisionless shocks appear in a dazzling array of astronomical settings. For example, shocks have been found in the solar wind upstream (sunward) of all the planet and comets that have been visited by spacecraft. Violent flares on the sun generate shocks that propagate to the far reaches of the solar system; tremendous galactic outbursts create disruptions in the intergalactic medium that are trillions of times larger. In addition, many astrophysicists think that shocks from supernova explosions in our galaxy accelerate cosmic rays, a class of extraordinarily energetic elementary particles and atomic nuclei that rain down on the earth from all directions

Causality relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanabusa, Kunihiro

2009-01-01

This paper investigates the relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan during the period from 2000 to 2008 using an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. We employ a residual cross-correlation function (CCF) approach developed by [Cheung, Y.W., Ng, N.K., 1996. A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices. Journal of Econometrics 72, 33-48]. The empirical results reveal that the economic growth rate Granger-causes the change of oil price in mean and variance and the change of oil price Granger-causes the economic growth rate in mean and variance. Previous studies have analyzed the response of economic activity to oil price shocks. However, we analyze the causality relations for both means and variances, and identify the direction of information flow and the timing of causation. (author)

Relativistic Shock Acceleration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffy, P.; Downes, T.P.; Gallant, Y.A.; Kirk, J.G.

1999-01-01

In this paper we briefly review the basic theory of shock waves in relativistic hydrodynamics and magneto-hydrodynamics, emphasising some astrophysically interesting cases. We then present an overview of the theory of particle acceleration at such shocks describing the methods used to calculate the spectral indices of energetic particles. Recent results on acceleration at ultra-relativistic shocks are discussed. (author)

On possible structures of normal ionizing shock waves in electromagnetic shock tubes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liberman, M.A.; Synakh, V.S.; Zakajdakhov, V.V.; Velikovich, A.L.

1982-01-01

The problem of possible structures of normal ionizing shock waves is studied. On the basis of the general theory of ionizing shock waves in magnetic fields, a similarity solution of the piston problem for an impenetrable piston and a magnetic piston is described and a numerical solution of the non-stationary piston problem is obtained. It is shown that precursor photo-ionization of the neutral gas by the radiation of the shock-heated gas is the dominant factor in shaping normal ionizing shock structures. In particular, it is shown that the strong overheating of atoms and ions in shock fronts is due to the tensor form of Ohm's law in the precursor region. (author)

Multiple spacecraft observations of interplanetary shocks: four spacecraft determination of shock normals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, C.T.; Mellott, M.M.; Smith, E.J.; King, J.H.

1983-01-01

ISEE 1,2,3 IMP8, and Prognoz 7 observations of interplanetary shocks in 1978 and 1979 provide five instances where a single shock is observed by four spacecraft. These observations are used to determine best-fit normals for these five shocks. In addition to providing well-documented shocks for furture techniques. When the angle between upstream and downstream magnetic field is greater than 20, magnetic coplanarity can be an accurate single spacecraft method. However, no technique based solely on the magnetic measurements at one or multiple sites was universally accurate. Thus, we recommend using overdetermined shock normal solutions whenever possible, utilizing plasma measurements, separation vectors, and time delays together with magnetic constraints

Shock absorber

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nemeth, J.D.

1981-01-01

A shock absorber for the support of piping and components in a nuclear power plant is described. It combines a high degree of stiffness under sudden shocks, e.g. seismic disturbances, with the ability to allow for thermal expansion without resistance when so required. (JIW)

Part I. Mechanisms of injury associated with extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy; Part II. Exsolution of volatiles

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Danny Dwayne

Part I - Shock waves are focused in extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) machines to strengths sufficient to fracture kidney stones. Substantial side effects-most of them acute-have resulted from this procedure, including injury to soft tissue. The focusing of shock waves through various layers of tissue is a complex process which stimulates many bio-mechano-chemical responses.This thesis presents results of an in vitro study of the initial mechanical stimulus. Planar nitrocellulose membranes of order 10 um thick were used as models of thin tissue structures. Two modes of failure were recorded: Failure due to cavitation collapsing on or near the membranes, and failure induced by altering the structure of shock waves. Tests were done in water at and around F2 to characterize the extent of cavitation damage, and was found to be confined within the focal region, 1.2 cm along the axis of focus.Scattering media were used to simulate the effects of acoustic nonuniformity of tissue and to alter the structure of focusing shock waves. 40 um diameter (average) hollow glass spheres were added to ethylene glycol, glycerine and castor oil to vary the properties of the scattering media. Multiple layer samples of various types of phantom tissue were tested in degassed castor oil to gauge the validity of the scattering media. The scattering media and tissue samples increased the rise time decreased strain rate in a similar fashion. Membranes were damaged by the decreased strain rate and accumulated effects of the altered structure: After about 20 or so shocks immersed in the scattering media and after about 100 shocks behind the tissue samples. The mode of failure was tearing with multiple tears in some cases from about .1 cm to about 3 cm depending of the number of shocks and membrane thickness.Part II - This work examines the exsolution of volatiles-carbon dioxide from water-in a cylindrical test cell under different pressure conditions. Water was supersaturated with

Chaos in oil prices? Evidence from futures markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adrangi, B.; Chatrath, A.; Dhanda, K.K.; Raffiee, K.

2001-01-01

We test for the presence of low-dimensional chaotic structure in crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline futures prices from the early 1980s. Evidence on chaos will have important implications for regulators and short-term trading strategies. While we find strong evidence of non-linear dependencies, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. Our test results indicate that ARCH-type processes, with controls for seasonal variation in prices, generally explain the non-linearities in the data. We also demonstrate that employing seasonally adjusted price series contributes to obtaining robust results via the existing tests for chaotic structure. Maximum likelihood methodologies, that are robust to the non-linear dynamics, lend support for Samuelson's hypothesis on contract-maturity effects in futures price-changes. However, the tests for chaos are not found to be sensitive to the maturity effects in the futures contracts. The results are robust to controls for the oil shocks of 1986 and 1991

System Shock: The Archetype of Operational Shock

Science.gov (United States)

2017-05-25

the battle space. They can also facilitate a much greater understanding of the variables involved in each party’s decision - making process. However...system shock nests within current US Army Unified Land Operations doctrine. In order to test the utility of system shock theory to Gray Zone...23 Neil E. Harrison, “Thinking about the World We Make ” in Chaos Theory in the Social Sciences: Foundations and Applications

Unlimited Relativistic Shock Surfing Acceleration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ucer, D.; Shapiro, V. D.

2001-01-01

Nonrelativistic shock surfing acceleration at quasiperpendicular shocks is usually considered to be a preacceleration mechanism for slow pickup ions to initiate diffusive shock acceleration. In shock surfing, the particle accelerates along the shock front under the action of the convective electric field of the plasma flow. However, the particle also gains kinetic energy normal to the shock and eventually escapes downstream. We consider the case when ions are accelerated to relativistic velocities. In this case, the ions are likely to be trapped for infinitely long times, because the energy of bounce oscillations tends to decrease during acceleration. This suggests the possibility of unlimited acceleration by shock surfing

The transformation of the global oil industry and its impact on international relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Appleyard, J.

1994-01-01

The transformations of ownership and control in the global oil industry since the first oil shock of 1974 are discussed and the impact of that change on several interconnected issues is explored. It is argued that structural changes in the industry affect interstate relations in ways that are of central concern to the discipline of international relations. Any likely future oil industry scenario will have considerable political and economic repercussions for both producer and consumer states, with a concommitant impact on the relations between those states more generally. There is a danger that interstate conflicts among oil producers will increase with perodic changes in the global supply and demand conditions for oil. Ways are suggested for international relations studies to take into account the change in the global oil industry and its impact on the distribution of power and on international order and justice. It is contended that a growing number of states must be considered as behaving much like firms in a competitive market, and the new international oil order both constrains and provides opportunities for those firm-like states. 20 refs

Effects of response-shock interval and shock intensity on free-operant avoidance responding in the pigeon1

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Marty; Rilling, Mark

1972-01-01

Two experiments investigated free-operant avoidance responding with pigeons using a treadle-pressing response. In Experiment I, pigeons were initially trained on a free-operant avoidance schedule with a response-shock interval of 32 sec and a shock-shock interval of 10 sec, and were subsequently exposed to 10 values of the response-shock parameter ranging from 2.5 to 150 sec. The functions relating response rate to response-shock interval were similar to the ones reported by Sidman in his 1953 studies employing rats, and were independent of the order of presentation of the response-shock values. Shock rates decreased as response-shock duration increased. In Experiment II, a free-operant avoidance schedule with a response-shock interval of 20 sec and a shock-shock interval of 5 sec was used, and shock intensities were varied over five values ranging from 2 to 32 mA. Response rates increased markedly as shock intensity increased from 2 to 8 mA, but rates changed little with further increases in shock intensity. Shock rates decreased as intensity increased from 2 to 8 mA, and showed little change as intensity increased from 8 to 32 mA. PMID:4652617

Serial optical coherence tomography assessment of malapposed struts after everolimus-eluting stent implantation. A subanalysis from the HEAL-EES study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ishida, Kohki [Cardiology Department, Cardiovascular Institute, Hospital Clínic, Institut d' Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), University of Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain); Otsuki, Shuji [Division of Cardiology, Teikyo University Hospital, Tokyo (Japan); Giacchi, Giuseppe; Ortega-Paz, Luis [Cardiology Department, Cardiovascular Institute, Hospital Clínic, Institut d' Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), University of Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain); Shiratori, Yoshitaka [Division of Cardiology, Teikyo University Hospital, Tokyo (Japan); Freixa, Xavier; Martín-Yuste, Victoria; Masotti, Mónica; Sabaté, Manel [Cardiology Department, Cardiovascular Institute, Hospital Clínic, Institut d' Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), University of Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain); Brugaletta, Salvatore, E-mail: sabrugal@clinic.ub.es [Cardiology Department, Cardiovascular Institute, Hospital Clínic, Institut d' Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), University of Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain)

2017-01-15

Background: Incomplete stent apposition (ISA) is related to stent thrombosis, which is a serious adverse event. We aim to assess the time-course of ISA after 2nd generation everolimus-eluting stent (EES) implantation. Methods: In HEAL-EES study, we enrolled 36 patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with EES. OCT imaging was performed at baseline and follow-up. Patients were randomized 1:1:1 into 3 groups according to the time in which follow-up was performed: group A (6-month), group B (9-month), and group C (12-month). In this subanalysis, patients who had ISA segments at baseline and/or follow-up OCT were analyzed. Result: At baseline, among 41 lesions in 36 patients, 20 lesions in 18 patients had ISA segments and were analyzed. At baseline, there were 3.0% ISA struts in group A (n = 8), 2.8% in group B (n = 4), and 4.5% in group C (n = 8). At follow-up, ISA struts were present in 0.09%, 0.16% and 0.64%; respectively in groups A, B, and C. At follow-up, there was a significant decrease in the frequency of ISA: group A 3.0% vs. 0.09% (p < 0.001), group B 2.8% vs. 0.16% (p < 0.001), and group C 4.5% vs. 0.64% (p < 0.001). In group A, there was one late acquired ISA at follow-up. Conclusions: In patients undergoing 2nd generation EES implantation, area of acute ISA assessed by OCT, was almost resolved at 6-month follow-up. - Highlights: • Time-course of incomplete stent apposition of everolimus-eluting stent was assessed. • Serial optical coherence tomography images at baseline and follow-up were evaluated. • Acute incomplete stent apposition was almost resolved as early as at 6 months.

Diaphragmless shock wave generators for industrial applications of shock waves

Science.gov (United States)

Hariharan, M. S.; Janardhanraj, S.; Saravanan, S.; Jagadeesh, G.

2011-06-01

The prime focus of this study is to design a 50 mm internal diameter diaphragmless shock tube that can be used in an industrial facility for repeated loading of shock waves. The instantaneous rise in pressure and temperature of a medium can be used in a variety of industrial applications. We designed, fabricated and tested three different shock wave generators of which one system employs a highly elastic rubber membrane and the other systems use a fast acting pneumatic valve instead of conventional metal diaphragms. The valve opening speed is obtained with the help of a high speed camera. For shock generation systems with a pneumatic cylinder, it ranges from 0.325 to 1.15 m/s while it is around 8.3 m/s for the rubber membrane. Experiments are conducted using the three diaphragmless systems and the results obtained are analyzed carefully to obtain a relation between the opening speed of the valve and the amount of gas that is actually utilized in the generation of the shock wave for each system. The rubber membrane is not suitable for industrial applications because it needs to be replaced regularly and cannot withstand high driver pressures. The maximum shock Mach number obtained using the new diaphragmless system that uses the pneumatic valve is 2.125 ± 0.2%. This system shows much promise for automation in an industrial environment.

Limits to oil pricing: scenario planning as a device to understand oil price developments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Austvik, O.G.

1992-01-01

This paper underlines that the politicizing of the oil market makes economics, politics and even pure warfare important elements in the formation of the price of oil. The disagreement about which theory to use to analyze the market and the bad record of oil price forecasting indicates that conventional oil market models should be critically re-assessed. The scenario planning methodology presented in this paper may be one alternative approach. SP does not overthrow any other theories of the market. But it claims that no single discipline is able to tell the whole truth about the market. The SP approach stresses and clarifies the role of uncertainty in the development of oil prices and underlines the importance of the understanding of the functioning of the market. It argues that without a cross-disciplinary approach, with an adequate choice of parameters, at the right level of in-depth discussion, the analysis may lose essential input or drown in detail. As an example of the methodology, an analysis of development of oil prices in the nineties is presented. It is shown that lower (indicated as 15-20 S/bbl) and upper (indicated as 30-40 S/bbl) limits of the price in the long run can be constructed, based on economic, political and strategic reasoning. It is also argued that short run 'shocks' outside these limits may have become less likely, because: (1) the strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) will cut off the most extreme prices above the upper limit and (2) the existence of a supply side regulator, like OPEC, will prevent prices from dropping below the lower limit for any longer period of time. Sensitivity analysis tests the 'robustness' of the approach. 10 refs., 1 fig

Holographic interferometric observation of shock wave focusing to extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy

Science.gov (United States)

Takayama, Kazuyoshi; Obara, Tetsuro; Onodera, Osamu

1991-04-01

Underwater shock wave focusing is successfully applied to disintegrate and remove kidney stones or gallbladder stones without using surgical operations. This treatment is one of the most peaceful applications ofshock waves and is named as the Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy. Ajoint research project is going on between the Institute ofFluid Science, Tohoku University and the School ofMedicine, Tohoku University. The paper describes a result of the fundamental research on the underwater shock wave focusing applied to the ESWL. Quantitatively to visualize the underwater shock waves, various optical flow visualization techniques were successfully used such as holographic interferometry, and shadowgraphs combined with Ima-Con high speed camera. Double exposure holographic interferometric observation revealed the mechanism of generation, propagation and focusing of underwater shock waves. The result of the present research was already used to manufacture a prototype machine and it has already been applied successfully to ESWL crinical treatments. However, despite of success in the clinical treatments, important fundamental questions still remain unsolved, i.e., effects of underwater shock wave focusing on tissue damage during the treatment. Model experiments were conducted to clarify mechanism of the tissue damage associated with the ESWL. Shock-bubble interactions were found responsible to the tissue damage during the ESWL treatment. In order to interprete experimental findings and to predict shock wave behavior and high pressures, a numerical simulation was carried. The numerical results agreed with the experiments.

Shock Isolation Elements Testing for High Input Loadings. Volume III. Mechanical Shock Isolation Elements.

Science.gov (United States)

SHOCK ABSORBERS ), (*GUIDED MISSILE SILOS, SHOCK ABSORBERS ), (*SPRINGS, (*SHOCK(MECHANICS), REDUCTION), TORSION BARS, ELASTOMERS, DAMPING, EQUATIONS OF MOTION, MODEL TESTS, TEST METHODS, NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS, HARDENING.

PARTICLE ACCELERATION AT THE HELIOSPHERIC TERMINATION SHOCK WITH A STOCHASTIC SHOCK OBLIQUITY APPROACH

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arthur, Aaron D.; Le Roux, Jakobus A.

2013-01-01

Observations by the plasma and magnetic field instruments on board the Voyager 2 spacecraft suggest that the termination shock is weak with a compression ratio of ∼2. However, this is contrary to the observations of accelerated particle spectra at the termination shock, where standard diffusive shock acceleration theory predicts a compression ratio closer to ∼2.9. Using our focused transport model, we investigate pickup proton acceleration at a stationary spherical termination shock with a moderately strong compression ratio of 2.8 to include both the subshock and precursor. We show that for the particle energies observed by the Voyager 2 Low Energy Charged Particle (LECP) instrument, pickup protons will have effective length scales of diffusion that are larger than the combined subshock and precursor termination shock structure observed. As a result, the particles will experience a total effective termination shock compression ratio that is larger than values inferred by the plasma and magnetic field instruments for the subshock and similar to the value predicted by diffusive shock acceleration theory. Furthermore, using a stochastically varying magnetic field angle, we are able to qualitatively reproduce the multiple power-law structure observed for the LECP spectra downstream of the termination shock

The cosmic-ray shock structure problem for relativistic shocks

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, G. M.

1985-01-01

The time asymptotic behaviour of a relativistic (parallel) shock wave significantly modified by the diffusive acceleration of cosmic-rays is investigated by means of relativistic hydrodynamical equations for both the cosmic-rays and thermal gas. The form of the shock structure equation and the dispersion relation for both long and short wavelength waves in the system are obtained. The dependence of the shock acceleration efficiency on the upstream fluid spped, long wavelength Mach number and the ratio N = P sub co/cP sub co+P sub go)(Psub co and P sub go are the upstream cosmic-ray and thermal gas pressures respectively) are studied.

Numerical Study of Shock Wave Attenuation in Two-Dimensional Ducts Using Solid Obstacles: How to Utilize Shock Focusing Techniques to Attenuate Shock Waves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qian Wan

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Research on shock wave mitigation in channels has been a topic of much attention in the shock wave community. One approach to attenuate an incident shock wave is to use obstacles of various geometries arranged in different patterns. This work is inspired by the study from Chaudhuri et al. (2013, in which cylinders, squares and triangles placed in staggered and non-staggered subsequent columns were used to attenuate a planar incident shock wave. Here, we present numerical simulations using a different obstacle pattern. Instead of using a matrix of obstacles, an arrangement of square or cylindrical obstacles placed along a logarithmic spiral curve is investigated, which is motivated by our previous work on shock focusing using logarithmic spirals. Results show that obstacles placed along a logarithmic spiral can delay both the transmitted and the reflected shock wave. For different incident shock Mach numbers, away from the logarithmic spiral design Mach number, this shape is effective to either delay the transmitted or the reflected shock wave. Results also confirm that the degree of attenuation depends on the obstacle shape, effective flow area and obstacle arrangement, much like other obstacle configurations.

Short‑Term and Long‑Term Relationships Between Prices of Imported Oil and Fuel Products in the U. S.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Václav Adamec

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, we analyzed a system of five monthly time series integrated I(1: average price of crude oil imported to the U.S. from OPEC countries (Opec, imported oil price from other than OPEC countries (NonOpec in USD per barrel, average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. (Regular, premium quality gasoline price (Premium and kerosene price (Kerosene in U.S. cents per gallon. Cointegration was established by EG test and the series were analyzed by VECM model with lag selected via BIC criterion. Cointegration rank was determined by the Johansen procedure. According to VECM coefficients, prices of oil from OPEC countries and beyond OPEC exert influence upon all commodity prices in the system, but in a contradictory manner. Responses to innovation shocks in Opec and NonOpec stabilized within 8 to 10 months upon a nonzero shift and further became permanent. Innovation shock in both types of gasoline and Kerosene had only short-term significant impact upon the system. Forecast error variance in all variables is explained mainly by variation in oil prices, especially Opec, which persists with increased horizon. For a short horizon h = 1, FEVDs in gasoline and kerosene prices are primarily made of variation in the respective fuel prices.

Converging cylindrical shocks in ideal magnetohydrodynamics

KAUST Repository

Pullin, D. I.

2014-09-01

We consider a cylindrically symmetrical shock converging onto an axis within the framework of ideal, compressible-gas non-dissipative magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). In cylindrical polar co-ordinates we restrict attention to either constant axial magnetic field or to the azimuthal but singular magnetic field produced by a line current on the axis. Under the constraint of zero normal magnetic field and zero tangential fluid speed at the shock, a set of restricted shock-jump conditions are obtained as functions of the shock Mach number, defined as the ratio of the local shock speed to the unique magnetohydrodynamic wave speed ahead of the shock, and also of a parameter measuring the local strength of the magnetic field. For the line current case, two approaches are explored and the results compared in detail. The first is geometrical shock-dynamics where the restricted shock-jump conditions are applied directly to the equation on the characteristic entering the shock from behind. This gives an ordinary-differential equation for the shock Mach number as a function of radius which is integrated numerically to provide profiles of the shock implosion. Also, analytic, asymptotic results are obtained for the shock trajectory at small radius. The second approach is direct numerical solution of the radially symmetric MHD equations using a shock-capturing method. For the axial magnetic field case the shock implosion is of the Guderley power-law type with exponent that is not affected by the presence of a finite magnetic field. For the axial current case, however, the presence of a tangential magnetic field ahead of the shock with strength inversely proportional to radius introduces a length scale R = √μ0/p0 I/(2π) where I is the current, μ0 is the permeability, and p0 is the pressure ahead of the shock. For shocks initiated at r ≫ R, shock convergence is first accompanied by shock strengthening as for the strictly gas-dynamic implosion. The diverging magnetic field then

Converging cylindrical shocks in ideal magnetohydrodynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pullin, D. I.; Mostert, W.; Wheatley, V.; Samtaney, R.

2014-01-01

We consider a cylindrically symmetrical shock converging onto an axis within the framework of ideal, compressible-gas non-dissipative magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). In cylindrical polar co-ordinates we restrict attention to either constant axial magnetic field or to the azimuthal but singular magnetic field produced by a line current on the axis. Under the constraint of zero normal magnetic field and zero tangential fluid speed at the shock, a set of restricted shock-jump conditions are obtained as functions of the shock Mach number, defined as the ratio of the local shock speed to the unique magnetohydrodynamic wave speed ahead of the shock, and also of a parameter measuring the local strength of the magnetic field. For the line current case, two approaches are explored and the results compared in detail. The first is geometrical shock-dynamics where the restricted shock-jump conditions are applied directly to the equation on the characteristic entering the shock from behind. This gives an ordinary-differential equation for the shock Mach number as a function of radius which is integrated numerically to provide profiles of the shock implosion. Also, analytic, asymptotic results are obtained for the shock trajectory at small radius. The second approach is direct numerical solution of the radially symmetric MHD equations using a shock-capturing method. For the axial magnetic field case the shock implosion is of the Guderley power-law type with exponent that is not affected by the presence of a finite magnetic field. For the axial current case, however, the presence of a tangential magnetic field ahead of the shock with strength inversely proportional to radius introduces a length scale R=√(μ 0 /p 0 ) I/(2 π) where I is the current, μ 0 is the permeability, and p 0 is the pressure ahead of the shock. For shocks initiated at r ≫ R, shock convergence is first accompanied by shock strengthening as for the strictly gas-dynamic implosion. The diverging magnetic field

Converging cylindrical shocks in ideal magnetohydrodynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pullin, D. I. [Graduate Aerospace Laboratories, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125 (United States); Mostert, W.; Wheatley, V. [School of Mechanical and Mining Engineering, University of Queensland, Queensland 4072 (Australia); Samtaney, R. [Mechanical Engineering, Physical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal (Saudi Arabia)

2014-09-15

We consider a cylindrically symmetrical shock converging onto an axis within the framework of ideal, compressible-gas non-dissipative magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). In cylindrical polar co-ordinates we restrict attention to either constant axial magnetic field or to the azimuthal but singular magnetic field produced by a line current on the axis. Under the constraint of zero normal magnetic field and zero tangential fluid speed at the shock, a set of restricted shock-jump conditions are obtained as functions of the shock Mach number, defined as the ratio of the local shock speed to the unique magnetohydrodynamic wave speed ahead of the shock, and also of a parameter measuring the local strength of the magnetic field. For the line current case, two approaches are explored and the results compared in detail. The first is geometrical shock-dynamics where the restricted shock-jump conditions are applied directly to the equation on the characteristic entering the shock from behind. This gives an ordinary-differential equation for the shock Mach number as a function of radius which is integrated numerically to provide profiles of the shock implosion. Also, analytic, asymptotic results are obtained for the shock trajectory at small radius. The second approach is direct numerical solution of the radially symmetric MHD equations using a shock-capturing method. For the axial magnetic field case the shock implosion is of the Guderley power-law type with exponent that is not affected by the presence of a finite magnetic field. For the axial current case, however, the presence of a tangential magnetic field ahead of the shock with strength inversely proportional to radius introduces a length scale R=√(μ{sub 0}/p{sub 0}) I/(2 π) where I is the current, μ{sub 0} is the permeability, and p{sub 0} is the pressure ahead of the shock. For shocks initiated at r ≫ R, shock convergence is first accompanied by shock strengthening as for the strictly gas-dynamic implosion. The

Converging cylindrical shocks in ideal magnetohydrodynamics

KAUST Repository

Pullin, D. I.; Mostert, W.; Wheatley, V.; Samtaney, Ravi

2014-01-01

We consider a cylindrically symmetrical shock converging onto an axis within the framework of ideal, compressible-gas non-dissipative magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). In cylindrical polar co-ordinates we restrict attention to either constant axial magnetic field or to the azimuthal but singular magnetic field produced by a line current on the axis. Under the constraint of zero normal magnetic field and zero tangential fluid speed at the shock, a set of restricted shock-jump conditions are obtained as functions of the shock Mach number, defined as the ratio of the local shock speed to the unique magnetohydrodynamic wave speed ahead of the shock, and also of a parameter measuring the local strength of the magnetic field. For the line current case, two approaches are explored and the results compared in detail. The first is geometrical shock-dynamics where the restricted shock-jump conditions are applied directly to the equation on the characteristic entering the shock from behind. This gives an ordinary-differential equation for the shock Mach number as a function of radius which is integrated numerically to provide profiles of the shock implosion. Also, analytic, asymptotic results are obtained for the shock trajectory at small radius. The second approach is direct numerical solution of the radially symmetric MHD equations using a shock-capturing method. For the axial magnetic field case the shock implosion is of the Guderley power-law type with exponent that is not affected by the presence of a finite magnetic field. For the axial current case, however, the presence of a tangential magnetic field ahead of the shock with strength inversely proportional to radius introduces a length scale R = √μ0/p0 I/(2π) where I is the current, μ0 is the permeability, and p0 is the pressure ahead of the shock. For shocks initiated at r ≫ R, shock convergence is first accompanied by shock strengthening as for the strictly gas-dynamic implosion. The diverging magnetic field then

Oil Dependence, Climate Change and Energy Security: Will Constraints on Oil Shape our Climate Future or Vice Versa?

Science.gov (United States)

Mignone, B. K.

2008-12-01

Threats to US and global energy security take several forms. First, the overwhelming dependence on oil in the transport sector leaves the US economy (and others) vulnerable to supply shocks and price volatility. Secondly, the global dependence on oil inflates prices and enhances the transfer of wealth to authoritarian regimes. Finally, the global reliance on fossil fuels more generally jeopardizes the stability of the climate system. These three threats - economic, strategic and environmental - can only be mitigated through a gradual substitution away from fossil fuels (both coal and oil) on a global scale. Such large-scale substitution could occur in response to potential resource constraints or in response to coordinated government policies in which these externalities are explicitly internalized. Here, I make use of a well-known integrated assessment model (MERGE) to examine both possibilities. When resource limits are considered alone, global fuel use tends to shift toward even more carbon-intensive resources, like oil shale or liquids derived from coal. On the other hand, when explicit carbon constraints are imposed, the fuel sector response is more complex. Generally, less stringent climate targets can be satisfied entirely through reductions in global coal consumption, while more stringent targets require simultaneous reductions in both coal and oil consumption. Taken together, these model results suggest that resource constraints alone will only exacerbate the climate problem, while a subset of policy-driven carbon constraints may yield tangible security benefits (in the form of reduced global oil consumption) in addition to the intended environmental outcome.

A shock surface geometry - The February 15-16, 1967, event. [solar flare associated interplanetary shock

Science.gov (United States)

Lepping, R. P.; Chao, J. K.

1976-01-01

An estimated shape is presented for the surface of the flare-associated interplanetary shock of February 15-16, 1967, as seen in the ecliptic-plane cross section. The estimate is based on observations by Explorer 33 and Pioneers 6 and 7. The estimated shock normal at the Explorer 33 position is obtained by a least-squares shock parameter-fitting procedure for that satellite's data; the shock normal at the Pioneer 7 position is found by using the magnetic coplanarity theorem and magnetic-field data. The average shock speed from the sun to each spacecraft is determined along with the local speed at Explorer 33 and the relations between these speeds and the position of the initiating solar flare. The Explorer 33 shock normal is found to be severely inclined and not typical of interplanetary shocks. It is shown that the curvature of the shock surface in the ecliptic plane near the earth-Pioneer 7 region is consistent with a radius of not more than 0.4 AU.

Pediatric Toxic Shock Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Yee

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Audience: This scenario was developed to educate emergency medicine residents on the diagnosis and management of a pediatric patient with toxic shock syndrome. The case is also appropriate for teaching of medical students and advanced practice providers, as well as a review of the principles of crisis resource management, teamwork, and communication. Introduction: Toxic shock syndrome is a low-frequency, high-acuity scenario requiring timely identification and aggressive management. If patients suffering from this condition are managed incorrectly, they may progress into multi-organ dysfunction and potentially death. Toxic shock syndrome has been associated with Streptococcus and Staphylococcus aureus (Staph. Approximately half of Staph cases are associated with menstruation, which was first described in the 1970s-1980s and was associated with the use of absorbent tampons.1 Group A Streptococcus may cause complications such as necrotizing fasciitis and gangrenous myositis.2 Pediatric patients may present critically ill from toxic shock syndrome. Providers need to perform a thorough history and physical exam to discern the source of infection. Management requires aggressive care with antibiotics and IV fluids. Objectives: By the end of this simulation session, the learner will be able to: 1 Recognize toxic shock syndrome. 2 Review the importance of a thorough physical exam. 3 Discuss management of toxic shock syndrome, including supportive care and the difference in antibiotic choices for streptococcal and staphylococcal toxic shock syndrome. 4 Appropriately disposition a patient suffering from toxic shock syndrome. 5 Communicate effectively with team members and nursing staff during a resuscitation of a critically ill patient. Method: This session was conducted using high-fidelity simulation, followed by a debriefing session and lecture on toxic shock syndrome.

Selfsimilar time dependent shock structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, R.; Drury, L.O.

1985-01-01

Diffusive shock acceleration as an astrophysical mechanism for accelerating charged particles has the advantage of being highly efficient. This means however that the theory is of necessity nonlinear; the reaction of the accelerated particles on the shock structure and the acceleration process must be self-consistently included in any attempt to develop a complete theory of diffusive shock acceleration. Considerable effort has been invested in attempting, at least partially, to do this and it has become clear that in general either the maximum particle energy must be restricted by introducing additional loss processes into the problem or the acceleration must be treated as a time dependent problem (Drury, 1984). It is concluded that stationary modified shock structures can only exist for strong shocks if additional loss processes limit the maximum energy a particle can attain. This is certainly possible and if it occurs the energy loss from the shock will lead to much greater shock compressions. It is however equally possible that no such processes exist and we must then ask what sort of nonstationary shock structure develops. The same argument which excludes stationary structures also rules out periodic solutions and indeed any solution where the width of the shock remains bounded. It follows that the width of the shock must increase secularly with time and it is natural to examine the possibility of selfsimilar time dependent solutions

Selfsimilar time dependent shock structures

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, R.; Drury, L. O.

1985-01-01

Diffusive shock acceleration as an astrophysical mechanism for accelerating charged particles has the advantage of being highly efficient. This means however that the theory is of necessity nonlinear; the reaction of the accelerated particles on the shock structure and the acceleration process must be self-consistently included in any attempt to develop a complete theory of diffusive shock acceleration. Considerable effort has been invested in attempting, at least partially, to do this and it has become clear that in general either the maximum particle energy must be restricted by introducing additional loss processes into the problem or the acceleration must be treated as a time dependent problem (Drury, 1984). It is concluded that stationary modified shock structures can only exist for strong shocks if additional loss processes limit the maximum energy a particle can attain. This is certainly possible and if it occurs the energy loss from the shock will lead to much greater shock compressions. It is however equally possible that no such processes exist and we must then ask what sort of nonstationary shock structure develops. The ame argument which excludes stationary structures also rules out periodic solutions and indeed any solution where the width of the shock remains bounded. It follows that the width of the shock must increase secularly with time and it is natural to examine the possibility of selfsimilar time dependent solutions.

Inferring Pre-shock Acoustic Field From Post-shock Pitot Pressure Measurement

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jian-Xun; Zhang, Chao; Duan, Lian; Xiao, Heng; Virginia Tech Team; Missouri Univ of Sci; Tech Team

2017-11-01

Linear interaction analysis (LIA) and iterative ensemble Kalman method are used to convert post-shock Pitot pressure fluctuations to static pressure fluctuations in front of the shock. The LIA is used as the forward model for the transfer function associated with a homogeneous field of acoustic waves passing through a nominally normal shock wave. The iterative ensemble Kalman method is then employed to infer the spectrum of upstream acoustic waves based on the post-shock Pitot pressure measured at a single point. Several test cases with synthetic and real measurement data are used to demonstrate the merits of the proposed inference scheme. The study provides the basis for measuring tunnel freestream noise with intrusive probes in noisy supersonic wind tunnels.

THE EFFECTS OF AREA CONTRACTION ON SHOCK WAVE STRENGTH AND PEAK PRESSURE IN SHOCK TUBE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. M. Mohsen

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an experimental investigation into the effects of area contraction on shock wave strength and peak pressure in a shock tube. The shock tube is an important component of the short duration, high speed fluid flow test facility, available at the Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN, Malaysia. The area contraction was facilitated by positioning a bush adjacent to the primary diaphragm section, which separates the driver and driven sections. Experimental measurements were performed with and without the presence of the bush, at various diaphragm pressure ratios, which is the ratio of air pressure between the driver (high pressure and driven (low pressure sections. The instantaneous static pressure variations were measured at two locations close to the driven tube end wall, using high sensitivity pressure sensors, which allow the shock wave strength, shock wave speed and peak pressure to be analysed. The results reveal that the area contraction significantly reduces the shock wave strength, shock wave speed and peak pressure. At a diaphragm pressure ratio of 10, the shock wave strength decreases by 18%, the peak pressure decreases by 30% and the shock wave speed decreases by 8%.

Structure of intermediate shocks and slow shocks in a magnetized plasma with heat conduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsai, C.L.; Wu, B.H.; Lee, L.C.

2005-01-01

The structure of slow shocks and intermediate shocks in the presence of a heat conduction parallel to the local magnetic field is simulated from the set of magnetohydrodynamic equations. This study is an extension of an earlier work [C. L. Tsai, R. H. Tsai, B. H. Wu, and L. C. Lee, Phys. Plasmas 9, 1185 (2002)], in which the effects of heat conduction are examined for the case that the tangential magnetic fields on the two side of initial current sheet are exactly antiparallel (B y =0). For the B y =0 case, a pair of slow shocks is formed as the result of evolution of the initial current sheet, and each slow shock consists of two parts: the isothermal main shock and the foreshock. In the present paper, cases with B y ≠0 are also considered, in which the evolution process leads to the presence of an additional pair of time-dependent intermediate shocks (TDISs). Across the main shock of the slow shock, jumps in plasma density, velocity, and magnetic field are significant, but the temperature is continuous. The plasma density downstream of the main shock decreases with time, while the downstream temperature increases with time, keeping the downstream pressure constant. The foreshock is featured by a smooth temperature variation and is formed due to the heat flow from downstream to upstream region. In contrast to the earlier study, the foreshock is found to reach a steady state with a constant width in the slow shock frame. In cases with B y ≠0, the plasma density and pressure increase and the magnetic field decreases across TDIS. The TDIS initially can be embedded in the slow shock's foreshock structure, and then moves out of the foreshock region. With an increasing B y , the propagation speed of foreshock leading edge tends to decrease and the foreshock reaches its steady state at an earlier time. Both the pressure and temperature downstreams of the main shock decrease with increasing B y . The results can be applied to the shock heating in the solar corona and

Shock waves in gas and plasma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niu, K.

1996-01-01

A shock wave is a discontinuous surface that connects supersonic flow with subsonic flow. After a shock wave, flow velocity is reduced, and pressure and temperature increase; entropy especially increases across a shock wave. Therefore, flow is in nonequilibrium, and irreversible processes occur inside the shock layer. The thickness of a shock wave in neutral gas is of the order of the mean free path of the fluid particle. A shock wave also appears in magnetized plasma. Provided that when the plasma flow is parallel to the magnetic field, a shock wave appears if the governing equation for velocity potential is in hyperbolic type in relation with the Mach number and the Alfven number. When the flow is perpendicular to the magnetic field, the Maxwell stress, in addition to the pressure, plays a role in the shock wave in plasma. When the plasma temperature is so high, as the plasma becomes collision-free, another type of shock wave appears. In a collision-free shock wave, gyromotions of electrons around the magnetic field lines cause the shock formation instead of collisions in a collision-dominant plasma or neutral gas. Regardless of a collision-dominant or collision-free shock wave, the fluid that passes through the shock wave is heated in addition to being compressed. In inertial confinement fusion, the fuel must be compressed. Really, implosion motion performs fuel compression. A shock wave, appearing in the process of implosion, compresses the fuel. The shock wave, however, heats the fuel more intensively, and it makes it difficult to compress the fuel further because high temperatures invite high pressure. Adiabatic compression of the fuel is the desired result during the implosion, without the formation of a shock wave. (Author)

Initial ISEE magnetometer results: shock observation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, C.T.

1979-01-01

ISEE-1 and -2 magnetic field profiles across 6 terrestrial bow shock and one interplanetary shock are examined. The inteplanetary shock illustrates the behavior of a low Mach number shock. Three examples of low or moderate β, high Mach number, quasi-perpendicular shocks are examined. These did not have upstream waves, but rather had waves growing in the field gradient. Two examples of high β shocks showed little coherence in field variation even though the two vehicles were only a few hundred kilometers apart. The authors present the joint behavior of wave, particle and field data across some of these shocks to show some of the myriad of shock features whose behavior they are now beginning to investigate. (Auth.)

Analytical solutions of hypersonic type IV shock - shock interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Frame, Michael John

An analytical model has been developed to predict the effects of a type IV shock interaction at high Mach numbers. This interaction occurs when an impinging oblique shock wave intersects the most normal portion of a detached bow shock. The flowfield which develops is complicated and contains an embedded jet of supersonic flow, which may be unsteady. The jet impinges on the blunt body surface causing very high pressure and heating loads. Understanding this type of interaction is vital to the designers of cowl lips and leading edges on air- breathing hypersonic vehicles. This analytical model represents the first known attempt at predicting the geometry of the interaction explicitly, without knowing beforehand the jet dimensions, including the length of the transmitted shock where the jet originates. The model uses a hyperbolic equation for the bow shock and by matching mass continuity, flow directions and pressure throughout the flowfield, a prediction of the interaction geometry can be derived. The model has been shown to agree well with the flowfield patterns and properties of experiments and CFD, but the prediction for where the peak pressure is located, and its value, can be significantly in error due to a lack of sophistication in the model of the jet fluid stagnation region. Therefore it is recommended that this region of the flowfield be modeled in more detail and more accurate experimental and CFD measurements be used for validation. However, the analytical model has been shown to be a fast and economic prediction tool, suitable for preliminary design, or for understanding the interactions effects, including the basic physics of the interaction, such as the jet unsteadiness. The model has been used to examine a wide parametric space of possible interactions, including different Mach number, impinging shock strength and location, and cylinder radius. It has also been used to examine the interaction on power-law shaped blunt bodies, a possible candidate for

Mechanical shock absorber

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vrillon, Bernard.

1973-01-01

The mechanical shock absorber described is made of a constant thickness plate pierced with circular holes regularly distributed in such a manner that for all the directions along which the strain is applied during the shock, the same section of the substance forming the plate is achieved. The shock absorber is made in a metal standing up to extensive deformation before breaking, selected from a group comprising mild steels and austenitic stainless steels. This apparatus is used for handling pots of fast neutron reactor fuel elements [fr

Effects of Alfvénic Drift on Diffusive Shock Acceleration at Weak Cluster Shocks

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Hyesung; Ryu, Dongsu

2018-03-01

Non-detection of γ-ray emission from galaxy clusters has challenged diffusive shock acceleration (DSA) of cosmic-ray (CR) protons at weak collisionless shocks that are expected to form in the intracluster medium. As an effort to address this problem, we here explore possible roles of Alfvén waves self-excited via resonant streaming instability during the CR acceleration at parallel shocks. The mean drift of Alfvén waves may either increase or decrease the scattering center compression ratio, depending on the postshock cross-helicity, leading to either flatter or steeper CR spectra. We first examine such effects at planar shocks, based on the transport of Alfvén waves in the small amplitude limit. For the shock parameters relevant to cluster shocks, Alfvénic drift flattens the CR spectrum slightly, resulting in a small increase of the CR acceleration efficiency, η. We then consider two additional, physically motivated cases: (1) postshock waves are isotropized via MHD and plasma processes across the shock transition, and (2) postshock waves contain only forward waves propagating along with the flow due to a possible gradient of CR pressure behind the shock. In these cases, Alfvénic drift could reduce η by as much as a factor of five for weak cluster shocks. For the canonical parameters adopted here, we suggest η ∼ 10‑4–10‑2 for shocks with sonic Mach number M s ≈ 2–3. The possible reduction of η may help ease the tension between non-detection of γ-rays from galaxy clusters and DSA predictions.

The Heliospheric Termination Shock

Science.gov (United States)

Jokipii, J. R.

2013-06-01

The heliospheric termination shock is a vast, spheroidal shock wave marking the transition from the supersonic solar wind to the slower flow in the heliosheath, in response to the pressure of the interstellar medium. It is one of the most-important boundaries in the outer heliosphere. It affects energetic particles strongly and for this reason is a significant factor in the effects of the Sun on Galactic cosmic rays. This paper summarizes the general properties and overall large-scale structure and motions of the termination shock. Observations over the past several years, both in situ and remote, have dramatically revised our understanding of the shock. The consensus now is that the shock is quite blunt, is with the front, blunt side canted at an angle to the flow direction of the local interstellar plasma relative to the Sun, and is dynamical and turbulent. Much of this new understanding has come from remote observations of energetic charged particles interacting with the shock, radio waves and radiation backscattered from interstellar neutral atoms. The observations and the implications are discussed.

Strut fracture and disc embolization of a Björk-Shiley mitral valve prosthesis: localization of embolized disc by computerized axial tomography.

Science.gov (United States)

Larrieu, A J; Puglia, E; Allen, P

1982-08-01

The case of a patient who survived strut fracture and embolization of a Björk-Shiley mitral prosthetic disc is presented. Prompt surgical treatment was directly responsible for survival. In addition, computerized axial tomography of the abdomen aided in localizing and retrieving the embolized disc, which was lodged at the origin of the superior mesenteric artery. A review of similar case reports from the literature supports our conclusions that the development of acute heart failure and absent or muffled prosthetic heart sounds in a patient with a Björk-Shiley prosthetic heart valve inserted prior to 1978 should raise the possibility of valve dysfunction and lead to early reoperation.