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Sample records for sheet dynamics inferred

  1. Plasma dynamics in current sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogdanov, S.Yu.; Drejden, G.V.; Kirij, N.P.; AN SSSR, Leningrad

    1992-01-01

    Plasma dynamics in successive stages of current sheet evolution is investigated on the base of analysis of time-spatial variations of electron density and electrodynamic force fields. Current sheet formation is realized in a two-dimensional magnetic field with zero line under the action of relatively small initial disturbances (linear regimes). It is established that in the limits of the formed sheet is concentrated dense (N e ∼= 10 16 cm -3 ) (T i ≥ 100 eV, bar-Z i ≥ 2) hot pressure of which is balanced by the magnetic action of electrodynamic forces is carried out both plasma compression in the sheet limits and the acceleration along the sheet surface from a middle to narrow side edges

  2. Inferring network topology from complex dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shandilya, Srinivas Gorur; Timme, Marc

    2011-01-01

    Inferring the network topology from dynamical observations is a fundamental problem pervading research on complex systems. Here, we present a simple, direct method for inferring the structural connection topology of a network, given an observation of one collective dynamical trajectory. The general theoretical framework is applicable to arbitrary network dynamical systems described by ordinary differential equations. No interference (external driving) is required and the type of dynamics is hardly restricted in any way. In particular, the observed dynamics may be arbitrarily complex; stationary, invariant or transient; synchronous or asynchronous and chaotic or periodic. Presupposing a knowledge of the functional form of the dynamical units and of the coupling functions between them, we present an analytical solution to the inverse problem of finding the network topology from observing a time series of state variables only. Robust reconstruction is achieved in any sufficiently long generic observation of the system. We extend our method to simultaneously reconstructing both the entire network topology and all parameters appearing linear in the system's equations of motion. Reconstruction of network topology and system parameters is viable even in the presence of external noise that distorts the original dynamics substantially. The method provides a conceptually new step towards reconstructing a variety of real-world networks, including gene and protein interaction networks and neuronal circuits.

  3. Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Bryan

    Understanding the dynamics of biochemical systems can seem impossibly complicated at the microscopic level: detailed properties of every molecular species, including those that have not yet been discovered, could be important for producing macroscopic behavior. The profusion of data in this area has raised the hope that microscopic dynamics might be recovered in an automated search over possible models, yet the combinatorial growth of this space has limited these techniques to systems that contain only a few interacting species. We take a different approach inspired by coarse-grained, phenomenological models in physics. Akin to a Taylor series producing Hooke's Law, forgoing microscopic accuracy allows us to constrain the search over dynamical models to a single dimension. This makes it feasible to infer dynamics with very limited data, including cases in which important dynamical variables are unobserved. We name our method Sir Isaac after its ability to infer the dynamical structure of the law of gravitation given simulated planetary motion data. Applying the method to output from a microscopically complicated but macroscopically simple biological signaling model, it is able to adapt the level of detail to the amount of available data. Finally, using nematode behavioral time series data, the method discovers an effective switch between behavioral attractors after the application of a painful stimulus.

  4. Field dynamics inference via spectral density estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Philipp; Steininger, Theo; Enßlin, Torsten A.

    2017-11-01

    Stochastic differential equations are of utmost importance in various scientific and industrial areas. They are the natural description of dynamical processes whose precise equations of motion are either not known or too expensive to solve, e.g., when modeling Brownian motion. In some cases, the equations governing the dynamics of a physical system on macroscopic scales occur to be unknown since they typically cannot be deduced from general principles. In this work, we describe how the underlying laws of a stochastic process can be approximated by the spectral density of the corresponding process. Furthermore, we show how the density can be inferred from possibly very noisy and incomplete measurements of the dynamical field. Generally, inverse problems like these can be tackled with the help of Information Field Theory. For now, we restrict to linear and autonomous processes. To demonstrate its applicability, we employ our reconstruction algorithm on a time-series and spatiotemporal processes.

  5. Nonparametric inference of network structure and dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peixoto, Tiago P.

    The network structure of complex systems determine their function and serve as evidence for the evolutionary mechanisms that lie behind them. Despite considerable effort in recent years, it remains an open challenge to formulate general descriptions of the large-scale structure of network systems, and how to reliably extract such information from data. Although many approaches have been proposed, few methods attempt to gauge the statistical significance of the uncovered structures, and hence the majority cannot reliably separate actual structure from stochastic fluctuations. Due to the sheer size and high-dimensionality of many networks, this represents a major limitation that prevents meaningful interpretations of the results obtained with such nonstatistical methods. In this talk, I will show how these issues can be tackled in a principled and efficient fashion by formulating appropriate generative models of network structure that can have their parameters inferred from data. By employing a Bayesian description of such models, the inference can be performed in a nonparametric fashion, that does not require any a priori knowledge or ad hoc assumptions about the data. I will show how this approach can be used to perform model comparison, and how hierarchical models yield the most appropriate trade-off between model complexity and quality of fit based on the statistical evidence present in the data. I will also show how this general approach can be elegantly extended to networks with edge attributes, that are embedded in latent spaces, and that change in time. The latter is obtained via a fully dynamic generative network model, based on arbitrary-order Markov chains, that can also be inferred in a nonparametric fashion. Throughout the talk I will illustrate the application of the methods with many empirical networks such as the internet at the autonomous systems level, the global airport network, the network of actors and films, social networks, citations among

  6. Graphical models for inferring single molecule dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalez Ruben L

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The recent explosion of experimental techniques in single molecule biophysics has generated a variety of novel time series data requiring equally novel computational tools for analysis and inference. This article describes in general terms how graphical modeling may be used to learn from biophysical time series data using the variational Bayesian expectation maximization algorithm (VBEM. The discussion is illustrated by the example of single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (smFRET versus time data, where the smFRET time series is modeled as a hidden Markov model (HMM with Gaussian observables. A detailed description of smFRET is provided as well. Results The VBEM algorithm returns the model’s evidence and an approximating posterior parameter distribution given the data. The former provides a metric for model selection via maximum evidence (ME, and the latter a description of the model’s parameters learned from the data. ME/VBEM provide several advantages over the more commonly used approach of maximum likelihood (ML optimized by the expectation maximization (EM algorithm, the most important being a natural form of model selection and a well-posed (non-divergent optimization problem. Conclusions The results demonstrate the utility of graphical modeling for inference of dynamic processes in single molecule biophysics.

  7. Inferring firn permeability from pneumatic testing on the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommers, A. N.; Rajaram, H.; MacFerrin, M. J.; Weber, E. P.; Colgan, W. T.; Stevens, C.

    2016-12-01

    In some parts of the accumulation zone of the Greenland ice sheet, summer temperatures can be warm enough to cause melting at the surface; the meltwater percolates into the firn, refreezes, and creates ice lenses within the firn column. This is an important process to consider when estimating the surface mass balance of the ice sheet. The rate of meltwater percolation depends on the permeability of the firn, a property that has not been well constrained in the presence of refrozen ice lenses. We present a novel, inexpensive method to infer firn permeability from pneumatic testing in the field, based on a well-established technique used in environmental engineering in designing soil vapor extraction systems. To illustrate the capabilities of this method, we infer both horizontal and vertical permeability from pilot tests at six sites on the Greenland ice sheet: KAN-U, DYE-2, EKT, NASA-SE, Saddle, and EastGRIP. These sites cover a range of conditions from mostly dry firn (EastGRIP), to firn with several ice lenses from refrozen meltwater (Saddle, NASA-SE, EKT), to firn with considerable ice lenses (DYE-2 and KAN-U). The inferred permeability in firn without refrozen ice lenses at EastGRIP agrees well with the range previously reported using an air permeameter to measure permeability through firn core samples at Summit, Greenland. At sites with ice lenses, we find high degrees of anisotropy, with vertical permeability much lower than horizontal permeability. The method presented here is a promising technique for measuring firn permeability, particularly as meltwater production increases in the accumulation zone and ice lenses from refrozen melt layers become more prevalent. In these initial proof-of-concept tests, we estimate that the inferred permeabilities represent effective permeability on the meter scale. With appropriately higher vacuum pressures and more detailed monitoring, effective permeabilities over a larger scale may be quantified reliably.

  8. New aspects of plasma sheet dynamics - MHD and kinetic theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wiechen

    Full Text Available Magnetic reconnection is a process of fundamental importance for the dynamics of the Earth's plasma sheet. In this context, the development of thin current sheets in the near-Earth plasma sheet is a topic of special interest because they could be a possible cause of microscopic fluctuations acting as collective non-idealness from a macroscopic point of view. Simulations of the near-Earth plasma sheet including boundary perturbations due to localized inflow through the northern (or southern plasma sheet boundary show developing thin current sheets in the near-Earth plasma sheet about 810 RE tailwards of the Earth. This location is largely independent from the localization of the perturbation. The second part of the paper deals with the problem of the macroscopic non-ideal consequences of microscopic fluctuations. A new model is presented that allows the quantitative calculation of macroscopic non-idealness without considering details of microscopic instabilities or turbulence. This model is only based on the assumption of a strongly fluctuating, mixing dynamics on microscopic scales in phase space. The result of this approach is an expression for anomalous non-idealness formally similar to the Krook resistivity but now describing the macroscopic consequences of collective microscopic fluctuations, not of collisions.

    Key words. Magnetospheric physics (plasma sheet · Space plasma physics (kinetic and MHD theory; magnetic reconnection

  9. Z Number Based Fuzzy Inference System for Dynamic Plant Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahib H. Abiyev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Frequently the reliabilities of the linguistic values of the variables in the rule base are becoming important in the modeling of fuzzy systems. Taking into consideration the reliability degree of the fuzzy values of variables of the rules the design of inference mechanism acquires importance. For this purpose, Z number based fuzzy rules that include constraint and reliability degrees of information are constructed. Fuzzy rule interpolation is presented for designing of an inference engine of fuzzy rule-based system. The mathematical background of the fuzzy inference system based on interpolative mechanism is developed. Based on interpolative inference process Z number based fuzzy controller for control of dynamic plant has been designed. The transient response characteristic of designed controller is compared with the transient response characteristic of the conventional fuzzy controller. The obtained comparative results demonstrate the suitability of designed system in control of dynamic plants.

  10. Congested Link Inference Algorithms in Dynamic Routing IP Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance descending of current congested link inference algorithms is obviously in dynamic routing IP network, such as the most classical algorithm CLINK. To overcome this problem, based on the assumptions of Markov property and time homogeneity, we build a kind of Variable Structure Discrete Dynamic Bayesian (VSDDB network simplified model of dynamic routing IP network. Under the simplified VSDDB model, based on the Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (BMAP and Rest Bayesian Network Model (RBNM, we proposed an Improved CLINK (ICLINK algorithm. Considering the concurrent phenomenon of multiple link congestion usually happens, we also proposed algorithm CLILRS (Congested Link Inference algorithm based on Lagrangian Relaxation Subgradient to infer the set of congested links. We validated our results by the experiments of analogy, simulation, and actual Internet.

  11. Dynamic spatial panels : models, methods, and inferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elhorst, J. Paul

    This paper provides a survey of the existing literature on the specification and estimation of dynamic spatial panel data models, a collection of models for spatial panels extended to include one or more of the following variables and/or error terms: a dependent variable lagged in time, a dependent

  12. Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Csatho, Beata M.; Schenk, Anton F.; van der Veen, Cornelis J.; Babonis, Gregory; Duncan, Kyle; Rezvanbehbahani, Soroush; van den Broeke, Michiel R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643; Simonsen, Sebastian B.; Nagarajan, Sudhagar; van Angelen, Jan H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/325922470

    2014-01-01

    We present a new record of ice thickness change, reconstructed at nearly 100,000 sites on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from laser altimetry measurements spanning the period 1993-2012, partitioned into changes due to surface mass balance (SMB) and ice dynamics. We estimate a mean annual GrIS mass

  13. Dynamic characteristics of automotive steel sheets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mihaliková

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this experimental research was to perform an analysis of deformation characteristics on two different types of steel: IF steel, and micro-alloyed steel were used automotive industry. For that purpose changes of properties of these materials were carried out by static 10-3 · s-1 and dynamic 103 · s-1 strain rate assess its plastic properties. Vickers micro hardness test was carried out by the static and dynamic loading condition and describes different hardness distribution. The higher strain hardening of materials was obtained too that was confirmed by distribution of dislocations.

  14. Ice sheet - permafrost interactions inferred from the sedimentary record of Weichselian glaciation in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szuman, I.; Ewertowski, M.; Kasprzak, L.; Piotrowski, J. A.

    2012-04-01

    Permafrost in front of the Weichselian ice sheet and its re-appearance on deglaciated terrain after ice retreat is well established. More contentious is the occurrence of permafrost beneath the ice sheet and its influence on subglacial processes and ice sheet dynamic. Here, we present sedimentological evidence of frozen ground beneath the advancing Weichselian ice sheet in central-western Poland. Special focus is on macrostructures indicating permafrost within the subglacial till, at the contact to the underlying sediments and within those sediments. Fieldwork has been carried out in outcrops located between the LGM ice margin and the subsequent retreat phase (Poznan/Frankfurt Phase). In Tomice site there are frost-cracks, ice-wedge pseudomorphs and deformed load structures in outwash sand directly below a till layer. Numerous sandy and sandy-silty intraclasts with preserved internal lamination occur within the deposits. In Wojnowice, a large intraclast 5 m long and 1.5 m high is found within a subglacial till layer. Ice-wedge pseudomorphs occur at Kaszczor, Nietążkowo, Sława Śląska and Wojnowice sites, just beneath the subglacial tills. Furthermore, multiple meso-scale deformations such as vertical sandy and gravelly layers and glaciotectonic breccia suggesting that the ground was frozen during deformation are present in Skrzynki, Annowo and Trąbinek. Ductile deformations were also observed, especially within fine-grained sands. Contact zones between subglacial tills and the underlying sediments are highly variable, but erosional and deformational contacts hosting partly sheared intraclasts suggest that the bed was at least locally frozen. Subglacial permafrost strongly influenced sediment rheology and its response to glacial stresses. We suggest that glacitectonic deformation was controlled by the grain size-dependent amount of unfrozen water trapped in the permafrost. Fine-grained material would have relatively high content of free water and consequently

  15. Dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet over multiple timescales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Kristian Kjellerup

    Since the 1990s mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet has accelerated substantially increasing its contribution to global sea level rise, especially during the past decade. Even though the current global sea level budget is well understood, providing better estimates of the mass loss is essential...... that the ice margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet responds highly dynamic and variable to climate change and oceanic forcing, with behavior additionally being governed by regional/local settings, e.g. topographical settings such as low-lying/mountainous areas and the presence or absence of deep fjords or shelf...

  16. The impact of dynamic topography on the bedrock elevation and volume of the Pliocene Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austermann, Jacqueline; Pollard, David; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Moucha, Robert; Forte, Alessandro M.; DeConto, Robert M.

    2015-04-01

    Reconstructions of the Antarctic ice sheet over long timescales (i.e. Myrs) require estimates of bedrock elevation through time. Ice sheet models have accounted, with varying levels of sophistication, for changes in the bedrock elevation due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), but they have neglected other processes that may perturb topography. One notable example is dynamic topography, the deflection of the solid surface of the Earth due to convective flow within the mantle. Numerically predicted changes in dynamic topography have been used to correct paleo shorelines for this departure from eustasy, but the effect of such changes on ice sheet stability is unknown. In this study we use numerical predictions of time-varying dynamic topography to reconstruct bedrock elevation below the Antarctic ice sheet during the mid Pliocene warm period (~3 Ma). Moreover, we couple this reconstruction to a three-dimensional ice sheet model to explore the impact of dynamic topography on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet since the Pliocene. Our modeling indicates significant uplift in the area of the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) and the adjacent Wilkes basin. This predicted uplift, which is at the lower end of geological inferences of uplift of the TAM, implies a lower elevation of the basin in the Pliocene. Relative to simulations that do not include dynamic topography, the lower elevation leads to a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet volume and a more significant retreat of the grounding line in the Wilkes basin, both of which are consistent with offshore sediment core data. We conclude that reconstructions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene warm period should be based on bedrock elevation models that include the impact of both GIA and dynamic topography.

  17. Tertiary ice sheet dynamics: The Snow Gun Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prentice, M. L.; Matthews, R. K.

    1991-04-01

    We observe strong negative correlation between Tertiary low- to mid-latitude planktonic foraminiferal δ18O and the difference between these data and coeval benthic foraminiferal δ18O. Late Quaternary data do not show this correlation. Coupling statistical model/δ18O comparisons and evidence for Antarctic ice and ocean temperature variation, we infer that Tertiary ice volume, recorded by tropical planktonic δ18O, increased as the deep ocean warmed. Because the isotopic signatures of deepwater temperature variation and ice volume change were of opposite sign, the sum of these signals in Tertiary benthic δ18O became lost in the noise. This renders low correlation between Tertiary planktonic and benthic δ18O time series compared to late Quaternary data. We contend that Tertiary ice sheet growth was commonly driven by warming of deep water from low- to mid-latitude marginal seas (snow gun hypothesis). In contrast, late Quaternary ice sheets grew as deep water, formed at high latitude, cooled. Because tectonic forcing and orbital forcing at low-latitude primarily controlled production and temperature variations of this Warm Saline Deep Water, these influences largely dictated Tertiary ice volume fluctuations. Through the Tertiary, we infer ice volume fluctuations to be an important component of sea level history on timescales between 103 and 107 years.

  18. Inferring connectivity in networked dynamical systems: Challenges using Granger causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lusch, Bethany; Maia, Pedro D.; Kutz, J. Nathan

    2016-09-01

    Determining the interactions and causal relationships between nodes in an unknown networked dynamical system from measurement data alone is a challenging, contemporary task across the physical, biological, and engineering sciences. Statistical methods, such as the increasingly popular Granger causality, are being broadly applied for data-driven discovery of connectivity in fields from economics to neuroscience. A common version of the algorithm is called pairwise-conditional Granger causality, which we systematically test on data generated from a nonlinear model with known causal network structure. Specifically, we simulate networked systems of Kuramoto oscillators and use the Multivariate Granger Causality Toolbox to discover the underlying coupling structure of the system. We compare the inferred results to the original connectivity for a wide range of parameters such as initial conditions, connection strengths, community structures, and natural frequencies. Our results show a significant systematic disparity between the original and inferred network, unless the true structure is extremely sparse or dense. Specifically, the inferred networks have significant discrepancies in the number of edges and the eigenvalues of the connectivity matrix, demonstrating that they typically generate dynamics which are inconsistent with the ground truth. We provide a detailed account of the dynamics for the Erdős-Rényi network model due to its importance in random graph theory and network science. We conclude that Granger causal methods for inferring network structure are highly suspect and should always be checked against a ground truth model. The results also advocate the need to perform such comparisons with any network inference method since the inferred connectivity results appear to have very little to do with the ground truth system.

  19. Inference for occupancy and occupancy dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Allan F.; Bailey, Larissa L.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K. Ullas

    2011-01-01

    This chapter deals with the estimation of occupancy as a state variable to assess the status of, and track changes in, species distributions when sampling with camera traps. Much of the recent interest in occupancy estimation and modeling originated from the models developed by MacKenzie et al. (2002, 2003), although similar methods were developed independently (Azuma et al. 1990; Bayley and Petersen 2001; Nichols and Karanth, 2002; Tyre et al. 2003), all of which deal with species occurrence information and imperfect detection. Less than a decade after these publications, the modeling and estimation of species occurrence and occupancy dynamics have increased significantly. Special features of scientific journals have explored innovative uses of detection–nondetection data with occupancy models (Vojta 2005), and an entire volume has synthesized the use and application of occupancy estimation methods (MacKenzie et al. 2006). Reviews of the topical concepts, philosophical considerations, and various sampling designs that can be used for occupancy estimation are now readily available for a range of audiences (MacKenzie and Royle 2005; MacKenzie et al. 2006; Bailey et al. 2007; Royle and Dorazio 2008; Conroy and Carroll 2009; Kendall and White 2009; Hines et al. 2010; Link and Barker 2010). As a result, it would be pointless here to recast all that these publications have so eloquently articulated, but that said, a review of any scientific topic requires sufficient context and relevant background information, especially when relatively new methodologies and techniques such as occupancy estimation and camera traps are involved. This is especially critical in a digital age where new information is published at warp speed, making it increasingly difficult to stay abreast of theoretical advances and research developments.

  20. Statistical inference for noisy nonlinear ecological dynamic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Simon N

    2010-08-26

    Chaotic ecological dynamic systems defy conventional statistical analysis. Systems with near-chaotic dynamics are little better. Such systems are almost invariably driven by endogenous dynamic processes plus demographic and environmental process noise, and are only observable with error. Their sensitivity to history means that minute changes in the driving noise realization, or the system parameters, will cause drastic changes in the system trajectory. This sensitivity is inherited and amplified by the joint probability density of the observable data and the process noise, rendering it useless as the basis for obtaining measures of statistical fit. Because the joint density is the basis for the fit measures used by all conventional statistical methods, this is a major theoretical shortcoming. The inability to make well-founded statistical inferences about biological dynamic models in the chaotic and near-chaotic regimes, other than on an ad hoc basis, leaves dynamic theory without the methods of quantitative validation that are essential tools in the rest of biological science. Here I show that this impasse can be resolved in a simple and general manner, using a method that requires only the ability to simulate the observed data on a system from the dynamic model about which inferences are required. The raw data series are reduced to phase-insensitive summary statistics, quantifying local dynamic structure and the distribution of observations. Simulation is used to obtain the mean and the covariance matrix of the statistics, given model parameters, allowing the construction of a 'synthetic likelihood' that assesses model fit. This likelihood can be explored using a straightforward Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, but one further post-processing step returns pure likelihood-based inference. I apply the method to establish the dynamic nature of the fluctuations in Nicholson's classic blowfly experiments.

  1. Large scale instabilities and dynamics of the magnetotail plasma sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birn, J.; Schindler, K.

    1986-01-01

    The stability properties of the magnetotail current sheet against large scale modes is reviewed in the framework of ideal MHD, resistive MHD, and collisionless Vlasov theory. It appears that the small deviations from a plane sheet pinch (in particular a magnetic field component normal to the sheet) are important to explain the transition of the tail from a quiet stable state to an unstable dynamic state. It is found that the tail is essentially stable in ideal MHD, but unstable in resistive MHD, while both stable and unstable configurations are found within collisionless theory. The results favor an interpretation where the onset of magnetotail dyanmics leading to a sudden thinning of the plasma sheet and the ejection of a plasmoid is caused by the onset of a collisionless instability that either directly leads to the growth of a collisionless tearing mode or via microscopic turbulence to the growth of a resistive mode. The actual onset conditions are not fully explored yet by rigorous methods. The onset may be triggered by local conditions as well as by boundary conditions at the ionosphere or at the magnetopause (resulting from solar wind conditions). 53 refs., 5 figs

  2. Evolution in Mind: Evolutionary Dynamics, Cognitive Processes, and Bayesian Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suchow, Jordan W; Bourgin, David D; Griffiths, Thomas L

    2017-07-01

    Evolutionary theory describes the dynamics of population change in settings affected by reproduction, selection, mutation, and drift. In the context of human cognition, evolutionary theory is most often invoked to explain the origins of capacities such as language, metacognition, and spatial reasoning, framing them as functional adaptations to an ancestral environment. However, evolutionary theory is useful for understanding the mind in a second way: as a mathematical framework for describing evolving populations of thoughts, ideas, and memories within a single mind. In fact, deep correspondences exist between the mathematics of evolution and of learning, with perhaps the deepest being an equivalence between certain evolutionary dynamics and Bayesian inference. This equivalence permits reinterpretation of evolutionary processes as algorithms for Bayesian inference and has relevance for understanding diverse cognitive capacities, including memory and creativity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Sign Inference for Dynamic Signed Networks via Dictionary Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Cen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mobile online social network (mOSN is a burgeoning research area. However, most existing works referring to mOSNs deal with static network structures and simply encode whether relationships among entities exist or not. In contrast, relationships in signed mOSNs can be positive or negative and may be changed with time and locations. Applying certain global characteristics of social balance, in this paper, we aim to infer the unknown relationships in dynamic signed mOSNs and formulate this sign inference problem as a low-rank matrix estimation problem. Specifically, motivated by the Singular Value Thresholding (SVT algorithm, a compact dictionary is selected from the observed dataset. Based on this compact dictionary, the relationships in the dynamic signed mOSNs are estimated via solving the formulated problem. Furthermore, the estimation accuracy is improved by employing a dictionary self-updating mechanism.

  4. Dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet over multiple timescales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Kristian Kjellerup

    Since the 1990s mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet has accelerated substantially increasing its contribution to global sea level rise, especially during the past decade. Even though the current global sea level budget is well understood, providing better estimates of the mass loss is essential....../crossshelf troughs. Warming of ocean temperatures is suggested as being a main driver for periodic dynamic ice loss events in northwest Greenland while cooling of ocean temperatures around southern Greenland, in conjunction with increased snow accumulation, is found to drive a rapid readvance of glaciers in response...... to the onset of the Little Ice Age. Furthermore this thesis shows that the thinning pattern of the last decade in southern Greenland compares well with that of the entire 20th century, thus the present sensitivity distribution will arguably hold for future ice sheet mass loss until marine outlet glaciers...

  5. The impact of dynamic topography change on Antarctic Ice Sheet stability during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austermann, J.; Pollard, D.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Moucha, R.; Forte, A. M.; Deconto, R. M.; Rowley, D. B.; Raymo, M. E.

    2015-12-01

    The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~ 3Ma), characterized by globally elevated temperatures (2-3º C) and carbon dioxide levels of ~400ppm, is commonly used as a testing ground for investigating ice sheet stability in a slightly warmer world. The central, unanswered question in this regard is the extent of East Antarctic melting during the MPWP. Here we assess the potential role of dynamic topography on this issue. Model reconstructions of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the ice age require an estimate of bedrock elevation through time. Ice sheet models account for changes in bedrock elevation due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), often using simplified models of the GIA process, but they generally do not consider other processes that may perturb subglacial topography. One such notable process is dynamic topography, i.e. the deflection of the solid surface of the Earth due to convective flow and buoyancy variations within the mantle and lithosphere. Paleo-shorelines of Pliocene age reflect the influence of dynamic topography, but the impact of these bedrock elevation changes on ice sheet stability in the Antarctic region is unknown. In this study we use viscous flow simulations of mantle dynamics to predict changes in dynamic topography and reconstruct bedrock elevations below the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the MPWP. We furthermore couple this reconstruction to a three-dimensional ice sheet model in order to explore the impact of dynamic topography on the extent of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Pliocene. Our modeling indicates that uplift occurred in the area of the Transantarctic Mountains and the adjacent Wilkes Basin. This predicted uplift, which is consistent with geological inferences of uplift in the Transantarctic Mountains, implies a significantly (~100-200 m) lower elevation of the Wilkes Basin in the Pliocene. This lower elevation leads to ~400 km of additional retreat of the grounding line in this region relative to simulations

  6. Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 9: This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods based on a maximum likelihood or Bayesian approach combined with markov chain Monte Carlo...... (MCMC) techniques. Due to space limitations the focus is on spatial point processes....

  7. Dynamical 3-Space: Cosmic Filaments, Sheets and Voids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cahill R. T.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Observations of weak gravitational lensing combined with statistical tomographic techniques have revealed that galaxies have formed along filaments, essentially one-dimensional lines or strings, which form sheets and voids. These have, in the main, been interpreted as "dark matter" effects. To the contrary here we report the discovery that the dynamical 3-space theory possesses such filamentary solutions. These solutions are purely space self-interaction effects, and are attractive to matter, and as well generate electromagnetic lensing. This theory of space has explained bore hole anomalies, supermassive black hole masses in spherical galaxies and globular clusters, flat rotation curves of spiral galaxies, and other gravitational anomalies. The theory has two constants, $G$ and $alpha$, where the bore hole experiments show that $alpha approx 1/137$ is the fine structure constant.

  8. Dynamical 3-Space: Cosmic Filaments, Sheets and Voids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cahill R. T.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Observations of weak gravitational lensing combined with statistical tomographic techniques have revealed that galaxies have formed along filaments, essentially one- dimensional lines or strings, which form sheets and voids. These have, in the main, been interpreted as “dark matter” effects. To the contrary here we report the discovery that the dynamical 3-space theory possesses such filamentary solutions. These solutions are purely space self-interaction effects, and are attractive to matter, and as well gener- ate electromagnetic lensing. This theory of space has explained bore hole anomalies, supermassive black hole masses in spherical galaxies and globular clusters, flat rota- tion curves of spiral galaxies, and other gravitational anomalies. The theory has two constants, G and , where the bore hole experiments show that 1 = 137 is the fine structure constant.

  9. Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    (This text written by Jesper Møller, Aalborg University, is submitted for the collection ‘Stochastic Geometry: Highlights, Interactions and New Perspectives', edited by Wilfrid S. Kendall and Ilya Molchanov, to be published by ClarendonPress, Oxford, and planned to appear as Section 4.1 with the ......(This text written by Jesper Møller, Aalborg University, is submitted for the collection ‘Stochastic Geometry: Highlights, Interactions and New Perspectives', edited by Wilfrid S. Kendall and Ilya Molchanov, to be published by ClarendonPress, Oxford, and planned to appear as Section 4.......1 with the title ‘Inference'.) This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Due to space limitations the focus...

  10. Exposure age and ice-sheet model constraints on Pliocene East Antarctic ice sheet dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamane, Masako; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Obrochta, Stephen; Saito, Fuyuki; Moriwaki, Kiichi; Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki

    2015-04-24

    The Late Pliocene epoch is a potential analogue for future climate in a warming world. Here we reconstruct Plio-Pleistocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) variability using cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages and model simulations to better understand ice sheet behaviour under such warm conditions. New and previously published exposure ages indicate interior-thickening during the Pliocene. An ice sheet model with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions also results in interior thickening and suggests that both the Wilkes Subglacial and Aurora Basins largely melted, offsetting increased ice volume. Considering contributions from West Antarctica and Greenland, this is consistent with the most recent IPCC AR5 estimate, which indicates that the Pliocene sea level likely did not exceed +20 m on Milankovitch timescales. The inception of colder climate since ∼3 Myr has increased the sea ice cover and inhibited active moisture transport to Antarctica, resulting in reduced ice sheet thickness, at least in coastal areas.

  11. Meltwater and Sediment Dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Benjamin D.

    The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is an important part of the Earth system, impacting climate, the land it occupies, and the ocean it borders. Its meltwater delivers fresh water to fjords and the coastal ocean, influencing sea level, ocean circulation, and sea ice formation. Its sediment decreases fjord light availability and delivers nutrients to the ocean. Sediment also fills fjord basins, builds Greenland's continental shelf, and serves as an archive of the Earth's past. GrIS baseline meltwater and sediment dynamics are poorly characterized. Only one river out of approximately 300 in Greenland has a discharge record longer than 5 years and sediment dynamics have been studied at limited locations. Even less well understood is how `downstream' systems respond to GrIS mass loss, the rate of which has quadrupled since the 1990s. This dissertation employs both field and satellite techniques to better characterize understudied meltwater and sediment dynamics of the GrIS. In Chapter 2, I assessed Greenland river plume dynamics between 2000 and 2012 using NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) imagery. Sediment plumes did not respond uniformly to increased melt. Plume size grew for only 50% of study rivers, likely due to highly variable sediment export from the GrIS. Concurrently with this work, I developed a novel cloud mask (Chapter 3). I then explored water and sediment dynamics of an unprecedented 160 rivers using Landsat7 imagery and the Google Earth Engine cloud-computing platform. Certain outlets are hotspots of sediment export and erosion. Further, the island as a whole is a hotspot of global sediment production: from 1 % of the Earth's land surface, it generates 5% to 12% the total sediment export to the ocean. This sediment is a significant, bioavailable source of iron in the ocean (Chapter 4). Finally, I developed two space-based discharge-estimation techniques. This work gauged two unstudied rivers and unified techniques using river

  12. Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Csatho, Beata M.; Schenk, Anton F.; van der Veen, Cornelis J.

    2014-01-01

    Significance We present the first detailed reconstruction of surface elevation changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet from NASA’s laser altimetry data. Time series at nearly 100,000 locations allow the characterization of ice sheet changes at scales ranging from individual outlet glaciers to larger...

  13. Optimal Experimental Design of Borehole Locations for Bayesian Inference of Past Ice Sheet Surface Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.; Huan, X.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Borehole data are essential for calibrating ice sheet models. However, field expeditions for acquiring borehole data are often time-consuming, expensive, and dangerous. It is thus essential to plan the best sampling locations that maximize the value of data while minimizing costs and risks. We present an uncertainty quantification (UQ) workflow based on rigorous probability framework to achieve these objectives. First, we employ an optimal experimental design (OED) procedure to compute borehole locations that yield the highest expected information gain. We take into account practical considerations of location accessibility (e.g., proximity to research sites, terrain, and ice velocity may affect feasibility of drilling) and robustness (e.g., real-time constraints such as weather may force researchers to drill at sub-optimal locations near those originally planned), by incorporating a penalty reflecting accessibility as well as sensitivity to deviations from the optimal locations. Next, we extract vertical temperature profiles from these boreholes and formulate a Bayesian inverse problem to reconstruct past surface temperatures. Using a model of temperature advection/diffusion, the top boundary condition (corresponding to surface temperatures) is calibrated via efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The overall procedure can then be iterated to choose new optimal borehole locations for the next expeditions.Through this work, we demonstrate powerful UQ methods for designing experiments, calibrating models, making predictions, and assessing sensitivity--all performed under an uncertain environment. We develop a theoretical framework as well as practical software within an intuitive workflow, and illustrate their usefulness for combining data and models for environmental and climate research.

  14. Dynamic Behavior of Spicules Inferred from Perpendicular Velocity Components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharma, Rahul; Verth, Gary; Erdélyi, Robertus [Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Centre, University of Sheffield, Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom)

    2017-05-10

    Understanding the dynamic behavior of spicules, e.g., in terms of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) wave mode(s), is key to unveiling their role in energy and mass transfer from the photosphere to corona. The transverse, torsional, and field-aligned motions of spicules have previously been observed in imaging spectroscopy and analyzed separately for embedded wave-mode identification. Similarities in the Doppler signatures of spicular structures for both kink and torsional Alfvén wave modes have led to the misinterpretation of the dominant wave mode in these structures and is a subject of debate. Here, we aim to combine line- of-sight (LOS) and plane-of-sky (POS) velocity components using the high spatial/temporal resolution H α imaging-spectroscopy data from the CRisp Imaging SpectroPolarimeter based at the Swedish Solar Telescope to achieve better insight into the underlying nature of these motions as a whole. The resultant three-dimensional velocity vectors and the other derived quantities (e.g., magnetic pressure perturbations) are used to identify the MHD wave mode(s) responsible for the observed spicule motion. We find a number of independent examples where the bulk transverse motion of the spicule is dominant either in the POS or along the LOS. It is shown that the counterstreaming action of the displaced external plasma due to spicular bulk transverse motion has a similar Doppler profile to that of the m = 0 torsional Alfvén wave when this motion is predominantly perpendicular to the LOS. Furthermore, the inferred magnetic pressure perturbations support the kink wave interpretation of observed spicular bulk transverse motion rather than any purely incompressible MHD wave mode, e.g., the m = 0 torsional Alfvén wave.

  15. Evidence for a dynamic East Antarctic ice sheet during the mid-Miocene climate transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Elizabeth L.; van de Flierdt, Tina; Williams, Trevor; Hemming, Sidney R.; Cook, Carys P.; Passchier, Sandra

    2017-11-01

    The East Antarctic ice sheet underwent a major expansion during the Mid-Miocene Climate Transition, around 14 Ma, lowering sea level by ∼60 m. However, direct or indirect evidence of where changes in the ice sheet occurred is limited. Here we present new insights on timing and locations of ice sheet change from two drill sites offshore East Antarctica. IODP Site U1356, Wilkes Land, and ODP Site 1165, Prydz Bay are located adjacent to two major ice drainage areas, the Wilkes Subglacial Basin and the Lambert Graben. Ice-rafted detritus (IRD), including dropstones, was deposited in concentrations far exceeding those known in the rest of the Miocene succession at both sites between 14.1 and 13.8 Ma, indicating that large amounts of IRD-bearing icebergs were calved from independent drainage basins during this relatively short interval. At Site U1356, the IRD was delivered in distinct pulses, suggesting that the overall ice advance was punctuated by short periods of ice retreat in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. Provenance analysis of the mid-Miocene IRD and fine-grained sediments provides additional insights on the movement of the ice margin and subglacial geology. At Site U1356, the dominant 40Ar/39Ar thermochronological age of the ice-rafted hornblende grains is 1400-1550 Ma, differing from the majority of recent IRD in the area, from which we infer an inland source area of this thermochronological age extending along the eastern part of the Adélie Craton, which forms the western side of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. Neodymium isotopic compositions from the terrigenous fine fraction at Site U1356 imply that the ice margin periodically expanded from high ground well into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin during periods of MMCT ice growth. At Site 1165, MMCT pebble-sized IRD are sourced from both the local Lambert Graben and the distant Aurora Subglacial Basin drainage area. Together, the occurrence and provenance of the IRD and glacially-eroded sediment at these two marine

  16. Boolean Networks in Inference and Dynamic Modeling of Biological Systems at the Molecular and Physiological Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakar, Juilee; Albert, Réka

    The following sections are included: * Introduction * Boolean Network Concepts and History * Extensions of the Classical Boolean Framework * Boolean Inference Methods and Examples in Biology * Dynamic Boolean Models: Examples in Plant Biology, Developmental Biology and Immunology * Conclusions * References

  17. A parameter-adaptive dynamic programming approach for inferring cophylogenies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merkle, Daniel; Middendorf, Martin; Wieseke, Nicolas

    2010-01-01

    Background: Coevolutionary systems like hosts and their parasites are commonly used model systems for evolutionary studies. Inferring the coevolutionary history based on given phylogenies of both groups is often done by employing a set of possible types of events that happened during coevolution....... Costs are assigned to the different types of events and a reconstruction of the common history with a minimal sum of event costs is sought.Results: This paper introduces a new algorithm and a corresponding tool called CoRe-PA, that can be used to infer the common history of coevolutionary systems...

  18. The last Scandinavian ice sheet in northwestern Russia: ice flow patterns and decay dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Demidov, L.; Houmark-Nielsen, Michael; Kjær, Kurt Henrik

    2006-01-01

    the main ice sheet. During the Lateglacial warming, disintegration and melting took place in a 200-600 km wide zone along the northeastern rim of SIS associated with thick Quaternary accumulations. Deglaciation occurred through aerial downwasting within large fields of dead ice developed during......Advance of the Late Weichselian (Valdaian) Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) in northwestern Russia took place after a period of periglacial conditions. Till of the last SIS, Bobrovo till, overlies glacial deposits from the previous Barents and Kara Sea ice sheets and marine deposits of the Last...... in Russia than previously outlined and the time of termination at 18-16 cal. kyr BP was almost 10 kyr delayed compared to the southwestern part of the ice sheet. We argue that the lithology of the ice sheets' substrate, and especially the location of former proglacial lake basins, influenced the dynamics...

  19. Dynamics of the last glacial maximum Antarctic ice-sheet and its response to ocean forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golledge, Nicholas R; Fogwill, Christopher J; Mackintosh, Andrew N; Buckley, Kevin M

    2012-10-02

    Retreat of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Antarctic ice sheet is thought to have been initiated by changes in ocean heat and eustatic sea level propagated from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as northern ice sheets melted under rising atmospheric temperatures. The extent to which spatial variability in ice dynamics may have modulated the resultant pattern and timing of decay of the Antarctic ice sheet has so far received little attention, however, despite the growing recognition that dynamic effects account for a sizeable proportion of mass-balance changes observed in modern ice sheets. Here we use a 5-km resolution whole-continent numerical ice-sheet model to assess whether differences in the mechanisms governing ice sheet flow could account for discrepancies between geochronological studies in different parts of the continent. We first simulate the geometry and flow characteristics of an equilibrium LGM ice sheet, using pan-Antarctic terrestrial and marine geological data for constraint, then perturb the system with sea level and ocean heat flux increases to investigate ice-sheet vulnerability. Our results identify that fast-flowing glaciers in the eastern Weddell Sea, the Amundsen Sea, central Ross Sea, and in the Amery Trough respond most rapidly to ocean forcings, in agreement with empirical data. Most significantly, we find that although ocean warming and sea-level rise bring about mainly localized glacier acceleration, concomitant drawdown of ice from neighboring areas leads to widespread thinning of entire glacier catchments-a discovery that has important ramifications for the dynamic changes presently being observed in modern ice sheets.

  20. Dynamics of the last glacial maximum Antarctic ice-sheet and its response to ocean forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golledge, Nicholas R.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Buckley, Kevin M.

    2012-01-01

    Retreat of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Antarctic ice sheet is thought to have been initiated by changes in ocean heat and eustatic sea level propagated from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as northern ice sheets melted under rising atmospheric temperatures. The extent to which spatial variability in ice dynamics may have modulated the resultant pattern and timing of decay of the Antarctic ice sheet has so far received little attention, however, despite the growing recognition that dynamic effects account for a sizeable proportion of mass-balance changes observed in modern ice sheets. Here we use a 5-km resolution whole-continent numerical ice-sheet model to assess whether differences in the mechanisms governing ice sheet flow could account for discrepancies between geochronological studies in different parts of the continent. We first simulate the geometry and flow characteristics of an equilibrium LGM ice sheet, using pan-Antarctic terrestrial and marine geological data for constraint, then perturb the system with sea level and ocean heat flux increases to investigate ice-sheet vulnerability. Our results identify that fast-flowing glaciers in the eastern Weddell Sea, the Amundsen Sea, central Ross Sea, and in the Amery Trough respond most rapidly to ocean forcings, in agreement with empirical data. Most significantly, we find that although ocean warming and sea-level rise bring about mainly localized glacier acceleration, concomitant drawdown of ice from neighboring areas leads to widespread thinning of entire glacier catchments—a discovery that has important ramifications for the dynamic changes presently being observed in modern ice sheets. PMID:22988078

  1. The Hamiltonian Brain: Efficient Probabilistic Inference with Excitatory-Inhibitory Neural Circuit Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence Aitchison

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Probabilistic inference offers a principled framework for understanding both behaviour and cortical computation. However, two basic and ubiquitous properties of cortical responses seem difficult to reconcile with probabilistic inference: neural activity displays prominent oscillations in response to constant input, and large transient changes in response to stimulus onset. Indeed, cortical models of probabilistic inference have typically either concentrated on tuning curve or receptive field properties and remained agnostic as to the underlying circuit dynamics, or had simplistic dynamics that gave neither oscillations nor transients. Here we show that these dynamical behaviours may in fact be understood as hallmarks of the specific representation and algorithm that the cortex employs to perform probabilistic inference. We demonstrate that a particular family of probabilistic inference algorithms, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC, naturally maps onto the dynamics of excitatory-inhibitory neural networks. Specifically, we constructed a model of an excitatory-inhibitory circuit in primary visual cortex that performed HMC inference, and thus inherently gave rise to oscillations and transients. These oscillations were not mere epiphenomena but served an important functional role: speeding up inference by rapidly spanning a large volume of state space. Inference thus became an order of magnitude more efficient than in a non-oscillatory variant of the model. In addition, the network matched two specific properties of observed neural dynamics that would otherwise be difficult to account for using probabilistic inference. First, the frequency of oscillations as well as the magnitude of transients increased with the contrast of the image stimulus. Second, excitation and inhibition were balanced, and inhibition lagged excitation. These results suggest a new functional role for the separation of cortical populations into excitatory and inhibitory neurons, and

  2. Evaluation of artificial time series microarray data for dynamic gene regulatory network inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xenitidis, P; Seimenis, I; Kakolyris, S; Adamopoulos, A

    2017-08-07

    High-throughput technology like microarrays is widely used in the inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs). We focused on time series data since we are interested in the dynamics of GRNs and the identification of dynamic networks. We evaluated the amount of information that exists in artificial time series microarray data and the ability of an inference process to produce accurate models based on them. We used dynamic artificial gene regulatory networks in order to create artificial microarray data. Key features that characterize microarray data such as the time separation of directly triggered genes, the percentage of directly triggered genes and the triggering function type were altered in order to reveal the limits that are imposed by the nature of microarray data on the inference process. We examined the effect of various factors on the inference performance such as the network size, the presence of noise in microarray data, and the network sparseness. We used a system theory approach and examined the relationship between the pole placement of the inferred system and the inference performance. We examined the relationship between the inference performance in the time domain and the true system parameter identification. Simulation results indicated that time separation and the percentage of directly triggered genes are crucial factors. Also, network sparseness, the triggering function type and noise in input data affect the inference performance. When two factors were simultaneously varied, it was found that variation of one parameter significantly affects the dynamic response of the other. Crucial factors were also examined using a real GRN and acquired results confirmed simulation findings with artificial data. Different initial conditions were also used as an alternative triggering approach. Relevant results confirmed that the number of datasets constitutes the most significant parameter with regard to the inference performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier

  3. Multi-decadal dynamic thinning on the northwest margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Niels Jákup; Kjær, Kurt H.; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas

    Ice mass changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet have been estimated since the early 1990s from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite gravity mission, of ice sheet thinning from satellite radar altimetry and airborne laser altimetry, and of increased velocities of outlet glaciers...... of increasing dynamic induced ice loss. GRACE data show that this increased mass loss initiated in 2005 ceased in late 2009, thus, defining a dynamic thinning event as seen previous along the coast in southeast Greenland. Here, we present a multi-decadal perspective on ice mass change from northwestern...... records with a 25 m grid resolution and vertical uncertainty of 4.6m. Comparative DEMs were derived from laser altimetry data recorded in 2005 and 2010. Ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) can be partitioned into surface mass balance (SMB) processes (runoff and precipitation) and ice dynamics...

  4. A dynamic discretization method for reliability inference in Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Jiandao; Collette, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    The material and modeling parameters that drive structural reliability analysis for marine structures are subject to a significant uncertainty. This is especially true when time-dependent degradation mechanisms such as structural fatigue cracking are considered. Through inspection and monitoring, information such as crack location and size can be obtained to improve these parameters and the corresponding reliability estimates. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) are a powerful and flexible tool to model dynamic system behavior and update reliability and uncertainty analysis with life cycle data for problems such as fatigue cracking. However, a central challenge in using DBNs is the need to discretize certain types of continuous random variables to perform network inference while still accurately tracking low-probability failure events. Most existing discretization methods focus on getting the overall shape of the distribution correct, with less emphasis on the tail region. Therefore, a novel scheme is presented specifically to estimate the likelihood of low-probability failure events. The scheme is an iterative algorithm which dynamically partitions the discretization intervals at each iteration. Through applications to two stochastic crack-growth example problems, the algorithm is shown to be robust and accurate. Comparisons are presented between the proposed approach and existing methods for the discretization problem. - Highlights: • A dynamic discretization method is developed for low-probability events in DBNs. • The method is compared to existing approaches on two crack growth problems. • The method is shown to improve on existing methods for low-probability events

  5. Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. C. de Winter

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of dynamical ice sheet mass loss is asymmetrically distributed towards higher SLC values. Here we show how asymmetric probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss impact the high-end uncertainties of regional SLC projections across the globe. For this purpose we use distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss presented by Church et al. (2013, De Vries and Van de Wal (2015 and Ritz et al. (2015. The global average median can be 0.18 m higher compared to symmetric distributions based on IPCC-AR5, but the change in the global average 95th percentile SLC is considerably larger with a shift of 0.32 m. Locally the 90th, 95th and 97.5th SLC percentiles exceed +1.4, +1.6 and +1.8 m. The high-end percentiles of SLC projections are highly sensitive to the precise shape of the probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss. The shift towards higher values is of importance for coastal safety strategies as they are based on the high-end percentiles of projections.

  6. The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stap, Lennert B.; Van De Wal, Roderik S.W.; De Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J.

    2017-01-01

    Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition ( ~34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and

  7. A study of dynamic resistance during small scale resistance spot welding of thin Ni sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, W; Zhou, Y; Kerr, H W; Lawson, S

    2004-01-01

    The dynamic resistance has been investigated during small scale resistance spot welding (SSRSW) of Ni sheets. Electrical measurements have been correlated with scanning electron microscope images of joint development. The results show that the dynamic resistance curve can be divided into the following stages based on physical change in the workpieces: asperity heating, surface breakdown, asperity softening, partial surface melting, nugget growth and expulsion. These results are also compared and contrasted with dynamic resistance behaviour in large scale RSW

  8. Inference in High-dimensional Dynamic Panel Data Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Tang, Haihan

    We establish oracle inequalities for a version of the Lasso in high-dimensional fixed effects dynamic panel data models. The inequalities are valid for the coefficients of the dynamic and exogenous regressors. Separate oracle inequalities are derived for the fixed effects. Next, we show how one can...

  9. A Fractal Approach to Dynamic Inference and Distribution Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marieke M.J.W. van Rooij

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Event-distributions inform scientists about the variability and dispersion of repeated measurements. This dispersion can be understood from a complex systems perspective, and quantified in terms of fractal geometry. The key premise is that a distribution’s shape reveals information about the governing dynamics of the system that gave rise to the distribution. Two categories of characteristic dynamics are distinguished: additive systems governed by component-dominant dynamics and multiplicative or interdependent systems governed by interaction-dominant dynamics. A logic by which systems governed by interaction-dominant dynamics are expected to yield mixtures of lognormal and inverse power-law samples is discussed. These mixtures are described by a so-called cocktail model of response times derived from human cognitive performances. The overarching goals of this article are twofold: First, to offer readers an introduction to this theoretical perspective and second, to offer an overview of the related statistical methods.

  10. The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stap, Lennert B.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; de Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J.

    2017-09-01

    Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (˜ 34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet-climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the separate effects of the ice-albedo and surface

  11. EEG Based Inference of Spatio-Temporal Brain Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Sofie Therese

    Electroencephalography (EEG) provides a measure of brain activity and has improved our understanding of the brain immensely. However, there is still much to be learned and the full potential of EEG is yet to be realized. In this thesis we suggest to improve the information gain of EEG using three....... The main topic of this thesis is the localization of the EEG generators. This entails solving both a forward and an inverse problem. The inverse problem maps the EEG signal recorded on the scalp to its origin in the brain. It is a highly ill-posed problem which we tackle by employing a sparsity promoting...... recovery ability. The forward problem describes the propagation of neuronal activity in the brain to the EEG electrodes on the scalp. The geometry and conductivity of the head layers are normally required to model this path. We propose a framework for inferring forward models which is based on the EEG...

  12. Anisotropic mechanical properties of graphene sheets from molecular dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ni Zhonghua; Bu Hao; Zou Min; Yi Hong; Bi Kedong; Chen Yunfei

    2010-01-01

    Anisotropic mechanical properties are observed for a sheet of graphene along different load directions. The anisotropic mechanical properties are attributed to the hexagonal structure of the unit cells of the graphene. Under the same tensile loads, the edge bonds bear larger load in the longitudinal mode (LM) than in the transverse mode (TM), which causes fracture sooner in LM than in TM. The Young's modulus and the third order elastic modulus for the LM are slightly larger than that for the TM. Simulation also demonstrates that, for both LM and TM, the loading and unloading stress-strain response curves overlap as long as the graphene is unloaded before the fracture point. This confirms that graphene sustains complete elastic and reversible deformation in the elongation process.

  13. Kernel methods and flexible inference for complex stochastic dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capobianco, Enrico

    2008-07-01

    Approximation theory suggests that series expansions and projections represent standard tools for random process applications from both numerical and statistical standpoints. Such instruments emphasize the role of both sparsity and smoothness for compression purposes, the decorrelation power achieved in the expansion coefficients space compared to the signal space, and the reproducing kernel property when some special conditions are met. We consider these three aspects central to the discussion in this paper, and attempt to analyze the characteristics of some known approximation instruments employed in a complex application domain such as financial market time series. Volatility models are often built ad hoc, parametrically and through very sophisticated methodologies. But they can hardly deal with stochastic processes with regard to non-Gaussianity, covariance non-stationarity or complex dependence without paying a big price in terms of either model mis-specification or computational efficiency. It is thus a good idea to look at other more flexible inference tools; hence the strategy of combining greedy approximation and space dimensionality reduction techniques, which are less dependent on distributional assumptions and more targeted to achieve computationally efficient performances. Advantages and limitations of their use will be evaluated by looking at algorithmic and model building strategies, and by reporting statistical diagnostics.

  14. Inferring dynamic signatures of microbes in complex host ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georg K Gerber

    Full Text Available The human gut microbiota comprise a complex and dynamic ecosystem that profoundly affects host development and physiology. Standard approaches for analyzing time-series data of the microbiota involve computation of measures of ecological community diversity at each time-point, or measures of dissimilarity between pairs of time-points. Although these approaches, which treat data as static snapshots of microbial communities, can identify shifts in overall community structure, they fail to capture the dynamic properties of individual members of the microbiota and their contributions to the underlying time-varying behavior of host ecosystems. To address the limitations of current methods, we present a computational framework that uses continuous-time dynamical models coupled with Bayesian dimensionality adaptation methods to identify time-dependent signatures of individual microbial taxa within a host as well as across multiple hosts. We apply our framework to a publicly available dataset of 16S rRNA gene sequences from stool samples collected over ten months from multiple human subjects, each of whom received repeated courses of oral antibiotics. Using new diversity measures enabled by our framework, we discover groups of both phylogenetically close and distant bacterial taxa that exhibit consensus responses to antibiotic exposure across multiple human subjects. These consensus responses reveal a timeline for equilibration of sub-communities of micro-organisms with distinct physiologies, yielding insights into the successive changes that occur in microbial populations in the human gut after antibiotic treatments. Additionally, our framework leverages microbial signatures shared among human subjects to automatically design optimal experiments to interrogate dynamic properties of the microbiota in new studies. Overall, our approach provides a powerful, general-purpose framework for understanding the dynamic behaviors of complex microbial ecosystems

  15. Folding dynamics of a family of beta-sheet proteins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousseau, Denis

    2008-03-01

    Fatty acid binding proteins (FABP) consist of ten anti-parallel beta strands and two small alpha helices. The beta strands are arranged into two nearly orthogonal five-strand beta sheets that surround the interior cavity, which binds unsaturated long-chain fatty acids. In the brain isoform (BFABP), these are very important for the development of the central nervous system and neuron differentiation. Furthermore, BFABP is implicated in the pathogenesis of a variety of human diseases including cancer and neuronal degenerative disorders. In this work, site-directed spin labeling combined with EPR techniques have been used to study the folding mechanism of BFABP. In the first series of studies, we labeled the two Cys residues at position 5 and 80 in the wild type protein with an EPR spin marker; in addition, two singly labeled mutants at positions 5 and 80 in the C80A and C5A mutants, respectively, were also produced and used as controls. The changes in the distances between the two residues were examined by a pulsed EPR method, DEER (Double Electron Electron Resonance), as a function of guanidinium hydrochloride concentration. The results were compared with those from CW EPR, circular dichroism and fluorescence measurements, which provide the information regarding sidechain mobility, secondary structure and tertiary structure, respectively. The results will be discussed in the context of the folding mechanism of the family of fatty acid binding proteins.

  16. ProDy: protein dynamics inferred from theory and experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakan, Ahmet; Meireles, Lidio M; Bahar, Ivet

    2011-06-01

    We developed a Python package, ProDy, for structure-based analysis of protein dynamics. ProDy allows for quantitative characterization of structural variations in heterogeneous datasets of structures experimentally resolved for a given biomolecular system, and for comparison of these variations with the theoretically predicted equilibrium dynamics. Datasets include structural ensembles for a given family or subfamily of proteins, their mutants and sequence homologues, in the presence/absence of their substrates, ligands or inhibitors. Numerous helper functions enable comparative analysis of experimental and theoretical data, and visualization of the principal changes in conformations that are accessible in different functional states. ProDy application programming interface (API) has been designed so that users can easily extend the software and implement new methods. ProDy is open source and freely available under GNU General Public License from http://www.csb.pitt.edu/ProDy/.

  17. Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2018-01-01

    In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

  18. Two-scale approach to dynamic localization failure of AISI 316H stainless steel sheets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gambin W.

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic localization failure of a thin sheet made of AISI 316H steel is considered on the macroscopic and mesoscopic level for proportional and nonproportional stress paths. On the macroscopic level, we propose: (1 the replacement of time as independent variable by a function of plastic dissipation and (2 dependence of the initial equivalent yield stress on stress rate. On the mesoscopic level - the regularized Schmid model for description of the single grain behavior is used and the polycrystalline yield surface generated by the texture development enables to improve the Forming Limit Diagrams for the sheet element.

  19. Holocene glacial history of the west Greenland Ice Sheet inferred from cosmogenic exposure ages and threshold lakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Nicolaj Krog; Kjaer, K. H.; Colding, Sune Oluf

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we use a combination of 10Be exposure ages and threshold lakes to constrain the ice sheet history in Godthåbs- and Buksefjorden, west Greenland (63-64°N) during the Holocene. The 10Be cosmogenic exposure ages have been used to quantify both the ice retreat and thinning of the west......) and this suggest that the ice sheet in this area may have been more retracted and probably more sensitive to climate change than other areas in south and west Greenland....

  20. Bayesian inference in dynamic domains using logical OR gates

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Claessens, R

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available of dynamic processes that describe the relations between states corresponding to multiple locations and different points in time, such as tracked objects. In the presented approach, we assume that the area of interest is represented by a grid, where each cell... probability 1) or not present at all (thus, a probability of 0 for being present). This interpretation results in a straightforward definition of the entries in the CPT. Namely, the entries in the columns P(TPk,t |T 1k,t , . . . ,T nk,t), for which ∃ T jk...

  1. Early Disk dynamics Inferred from Isotope Systematics of Individual Chrondules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollard, Jean Francois André

    can provide direct insights into the environment and dynamics that prevailed at that time. In particular, chondrules are mm-sized igneous silicate spherules that formed throughout the protoplanetary disk by transient heating events in the first few million years. Their sheer abundance in chondrites...... of chondrules has suggested that their formation began approximately 1-2 Myr after the condensation of Calcium-Aluminum-rich Inclusions (CAIs), the oldest known solids, recent absolute dating of individual chondrules by the 207Pb-206Pb chronometer has refuted this supposed age gap. Instead, this chronometer...

  2. Imaging the dynamics of an individual hydrogen atom intercalated between two graphene sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen-Xiao; Wei, Yi-Wen; Li, Si-Yu; Li, Xinqi; Wu, Xiaosong; Feng, Ji; He, Lin

    2018-02-01

    The interlayer gallery between two adjacent sheets of van der Waals materials is expected to modify properties of atoms and molecules confined at the atomic interfaces. Here, we directly image individual hydrogen atom intercalated between two graphene sheets and investigate its dynamics by scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM). The intercalated hydrogen atom is found to be remarkably different from atomic hydrogen chemisorbed on the external surface of graphene. Our STM measurements, complemented by first-principles calculations, show that the hydrogen atom intercalated between two graphene sheets has dramatically reduced potential barriers for elementary migration steps. Especially, the confined atomic hydrogen dissociation energy from one of the graphene sheet is reduced to 0.34 eV, which is only about a third of a hydrogen atom chemisorbed on the external surface of graphene. This offers a unique platform for direct imaging of the atomic dynamics of confined atoms. Our results suggest that the atomic interfaces of van der Waals materials provide a confined environment to tune the dynamics process of confined atoms or molecules.

  3. The Accuracy of Inference in Small Samples of Dynamic Panel Data Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bun, M.J.G.; Kiviet, J.F.

    2001-01-01

    Through Monte Carlo experiments the small sample behavior is examined of various inference techniques for dynamic panel data models when both the time-series and cross-section dimensions of the data set are small. The LSDV technique and corrected versions of it are compared with IV and GMM

  4. Forest fragmentation and bird community dynamics: inference at regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulinier, T.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Flather, C.H.; Pollock, K.H.

    2001-01-01

    With increasing fragmentation of natural areas and a dramatic reduction of forest cover in several parts of the world, quantifying the impact of such changes on species richness and community dynamics has been a subject of much concern. Here, we tested whether in more fragmented landscapes there was a lower number of area-sensitive species and higher local extinction and turnover rates, which could explain higher temporal variability in species richness. To investigate such potential landscape effects at a regional scale, we merged two independent, large-scale monitoring efforts: the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Land Use and Land Cover Classification data from the U.S. Geological Survey. We used methods that accounted for heterogeneity in the probability of detecting species to estimate species richness and temporal changes in the bird communities for BBS routes in three mid-Atlantic U.S. states. Forest breeding bird species were grouped prior to the analyses into area-sensitive and non-area-sensitive species according to previous studies. We tested predictions relating measures of forest structure at one point in time (1974) to species richness at that time and to parameters of forest bird community change over the following 22-yr-period (1975-1996). We used the mean size of forest patches to characterize landscape structure, as high correlations among landscape variables did not allow us to disentangle the relative roles of habitat fragmentation per se and habitat loss. As predicted, together with lower species richness for area-sensitive species on routes surrounded by landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size, we found higher mean year-to-year rates of local extinction. Moreover, the mean year-to-year rates of local turnover (proportion of locally new species) for area-sensitive species were also higher in landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size. These associations were not observed for the non-area-sensitive species group. These

  5. Dynamical Structure of the Cross-tail Current Sheet During Substorms Observed by Cluster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Y.; Nakamura, R.; Runov, A.; Takada, T.; Baumjohann, W.; Balogh, A.; Klecker, B.; Rème, H.

    2005-12-01

    We report on the dynamical variation of the current sheet structure in the magnetotail using magnetic field and plasma data obtained by the Cluster multi-satellites. It is found that in some cases the thickness of the cross-tail current sheet shows temporal variations repeatedly. This sausage-mode-like variation is associated with substorm onsets or occurrence of fast plasma flows, with the time scale of several minutes before substorm onsets or fast flows and of a half to one minute afterwards. It frequently coexists with kink-mode-like wave or flapping motion. Such sausage-mode-like variation is mainly observed in the central part of the plasma sheet, and forms transient bifurcated currents or the intense current in the center.

  6. Inferring gene expression dynamics via functional regression analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leng Xiaoyan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Temporal gene expression profiles characterize the time-dynamics of expression of specific genes and are increasingly collected in current gene expression experiments. In the analysis of experiments where gene expression is obtained over the life cycle, it is of interest to relate temporal patterns of gene expression associated with different developmental stages to each other to study patterns of long-term developmental gene regulation. We use tools from functional data analysis to study dynamic changes by relating temporal gene expression profiles of different developmental stages to each other. Results We demonstrate that functional regression methodology can pinpoint relationships that exist between temporary gene expression profiles for different life cycle phases and incorporates dimension reduction as needed for these high-dimensional data. By applying these tools, gene expression profiles for pupa and adult phases are found to be strongly related to the profiles of the same genes obtained during the embryo phase. Moreover, one can distinguish between gene groups that exhibit relationships with positive and others with negative associations between later life and embryonal expression profiles. Specifically, we find a positive relationship in expression for muscle development related genes, and a negative relationship for strictly maternal genes for Drosophila, using temporal gene expression profiles. Conclusion Our findings point to specific reactivation patterns of gene expression during the Drosophila life cycle which differ in characteristic ways between various gene groups. Functional regression emerges as a useful tool for relating gene expression patterns from different developmental stages, and avoids the problems with large numbers of parameters and multiple testing that affect alternative approaches.

  7. Magnetotail Current Sheet in the Regime of Chaotic Dynamics of Plasma Particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malova, Helmi; Zelenyi, Lev; Popov, Victor; Ulkin, Alexander

    We investigate the Earth’s magnetotail current sheet which sometimes can be strongly thinned during substorms and is observed as almost 1D structure with thickness about several ion gyroradius. This extremely thin current sheet (TCS) is possibly the key element of substorms due to the accumulation of solar wind magnetic energy and its consequent release. 1D hybrid model is developed to describe TCS configuration and to determine the possible regimes of its existence, especially the states when most part of ion population move in the regime of dynamical chaos. The ion motion is described in kinetic approach, but magnetized electrons are considered as the fluid flow, providing the quasi-neutrality in the system. The convergence of current sheet model to equilibrium solutions is studied in the wide diapason of parameters of the system. It is shown that parameter adiabaticity kappa, governing particle motion, plays a general role in the current sheet structure. When kappa increases from 0.1 to 0.5 a great number of quasi-trapped ions are accumulated near current sheet. Their local currents do not contribute in the total current, but locally redistribute current density profile leading to the decrease of its central maximum and consequent TCS thickening. It is shown that the convergence of numerical codes to equilibrium state in the interval kappa ~0.4-0.5 is due to only electron curvature drifts currents, whereas the ion component shows the chaotic motion. At larger values of parameter kappa the density of quasi-trapped particles is increased substantially, leading to the destruction of current sheet equilibrium solutions. The implication of these effects to auroral manifestations of magnetotail dynamics is discussed.

  8. Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Guo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

  9. Inferring the dynamics of diversification: a coalescent approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morlon, Hélène; Potts, Matthew D; Plotkin, Joshua B

    2010-09-28

    Recent analyses of the fossil record and molecular phylogenies suggest that there are fundamental limits to biodiversity, possibly arising from constraints in the availability of space, resources, or ecological niches. Under this hypothesis, speciation rates decay over time and biodiversity eventually saturates, with new species emerging only when others are driven to extinction. This view of macro-evolution contradicts an alternative hypothesis that biodiversity is unbounded, with species ever accumulating as they find new niches to occupy. These contrasting theories of biodiversity dynamics yield fundamentally different explanations for the disparity in species richness across taxa and regions. Here, we test whether speciation rates have decayed or remained constant over time, and whether biodiversity is saturated or still expanding. We first derive a general likelihood expression for internode distances in a phylogeny, based on the well-known coalescent process from population genetics. This expression accounts for either time-constant or time-variable rates, time-constant or time-variable diversity, and completely or incompletely sampled phylogenies. We then compare the performance of different diversification scenarios in explaining a set of 289 phylogenies representing amphibians, arthropods, birds, mammals, mollusks, and flowering plants. Our results indicate that speciation rates typically decay over time, but that diversity is still expanding at present. The evidence for expanding-diversity models suggests that an upper limit to biodiversity has not yet been reached, or that no such limit exists.

  10. Inferring the dynamics of diversification: a coalescent approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hélène Morlon

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Recent analyses of the fossil record and molecular phylogenies suggest that there are fundamental limits to biodiversity, possibly arising from constraints in the availability of space, resources, or ecological niches. Under this hypothesis, speciation rates decay over time and biodiversity eventually saturates, with new species emerging only when others are driven to extinction. This view of macro-evolution contradicts an alternative hypothesis that biodiversity is unbounded, with species ever accumulating as they find new niches to occupy. These contrasting theories of biodiversity dynamics yield fundamentally different explanations for the disparity in species richness across taxa and regions. Here, we test whether speciation rates have decayed or remained constant over time, and whether biodiversity is saturated or still expanding. We first derive a general likelihood expression for internode distances in a phylogeny, based on the well-known coalescent process from population genetics. This expression accounts for either time-constant or time-variable rates, time-constant or time-variable diversity, and completely or incompletely sampled phylogenies. We then compare the performance of different diversification scenarios in explaining a set of 289 phylogenies representing amphibians, arthropods, birds, mammals, mollusks, and flowering plants. Our results indicate that speciation rates typically decay over time, but that diversity is still expanding at present. The evidence for expanding-diversity models suggests that an upper limit to biodiversity has not yet been reached, or that no such limit exists.

  11. Single-block rockfall dynamics inferred from seismic signal analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hibert

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Seismic monitoring of mass movements can significantly help to mitigate the associated hazards; however, the link between event dynamics and the seismic signals generated is not completely understood. To better understand these relationships, we conducted controlled releases of single blocks within a soft-rock (black marls gully of the Rioux-Bourdoux torrent (French Alps. A total of 28 blocks, with masses ranging from 76 to 472 kg, were used for the experiment. An instrumentation combining video cameras and seismometers was deployed along the travelled path. The video cameras allow reconstructing the trajectories of the blocks and estimating their velocities at the time of the different impacts with the slope. These data are compared to the recorded seismic signals. As the distance between the falling block and the seismic sensors at the time of each impact is known, we were able to determine the associated seismic signal amplitude corrected for propagation and attenuation effects. We compared the velocity, the potential energy lost, the kinetic energy and the momentum of the block at each impact to the true amplitude and the radiated seismic energy. Our results suggest that the amplitude of the seismic signal is correlated to the momentum of the block at the impact. We also found relationships between the potential energy lost, the kinetic energy and the seismic energy radiated by the impacts. Thanks to these relationships, we were able to retrieve the mass and the velocity before impact of each block directly from the seismic signal. Despite high uncertainties, the values found are close to the true values of the masses and the velocities of the blocks. These relationships allow for gaining a better understanding of the physical processes that control the source of high-frequency seismic signals generated by rockfalls.

  12. Pipeline for inferring protein function from dynamics using coarse-grained molecular mechanics forcefield.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhadra, Pratiti; Pal, Debnath

    2017-04-01

    Dynamics is integral to the function of proteins, yet the use of molecular dynamics (MD) simulation as a technique remains under-explored for molecular function inference. This is more important in the context of genomics projects where novel proteins are determined with limited evolutionary information. Recently we developed a method to match the query protein's flexible segments to infer function using a novel approach combining analysis of residue fluctuation-graphs and auto-correlation vectors derived from coarse-grained (CG) MD trajectory. The method was validated on a diverse dataset with sequence identity between proteins as low as 3%, with high function-recall rates. Here we share its implementation as a publicly accessible web service, named DynFunc (Dynamics Match for Function) to query protein function from ≥1 µs long CG dynamics trajectory information of protein subunits. Users are provided with the custom-developed coarse-grained molecular mechanics (CGMM) forcefield to generate the MD trajectories for their protein of interest. On upload of trajectory information, the DynFunc web server identifies specific flexible regions of the protein linked to putative molecular function. Our unique application does not use evolutionary information to infer molecular function from MD information and can, therefore, work for all proteins, including moonlighting and the novel ones, whenever structural information is available. Our pipeline is expected to be of utility to all structural biologists working with novel proteins and interested in moonlighting functions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Mocapy++ - a toolkit for inference and learning in dynamic Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin; Hamelryck, Thomas Wim

    2010-01-01

    Background Mocapy++ is a toolkit for parameter learning and inference in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). It supports a wide range of DBN architectures and probability distributions, including distributions from directional statistics (the statistics of angles, directions and orientations...... for constructing probabilistic models of biomolecular structure, due to its support for directional statistics. In particular, it supports the Kent distribution on the sphere and the bivariate von Mises distribution on the torus. These distributions have proven useful to formulate probabilistic models of protein...

  14. Dynamic probabilistic threshold networks to infer signaling pathways from time-course perturbation data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiani, Narsis A; Kaderali, Lars

    2014-07-22

    Network inference deals with the reconstruction of molecular networks from experimental data. Given N molecular species, the challenge is to find the underlying network. Due to data limitations, this typically is an ill-posed problem, and requires the integration of prior biological knowledge or strong regularization. We here focus on the situation when time-resolved measurements of a system's response after systematic perturbations are available. We present a novel method to infer signaling networks from time-course perturbation data. We utilize dynamic Bayesian networks with probabilistic Boolean threshold functions to describe protein activation. The model posterior distribution is analyzed using evolutionary MCMC sampling and subsequent clustering, resulting in probability distributions over alternative networks. We evaluate our method on simulated data, and study its performance with respect to data set size and levels of noise. We then use our method to study EGF-mediated signaling in the ERBB pathway. Dynamic Probabilistic Threshold Networks is a new method to infer signaling networks from time-series perturbation data. It exploits the dynamic response of a system after external perturbation for network reconstruction. On simulated data, we show that the approach outperforms current state of the art methods. On the ERBB data, our approach recovers a significant fraction of the known interactions, and predicts novel mechanisms in the ERBB pathway.

  15. Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may

  16. A customized light sheet microscope to measure spatio-temporal protein dynamics in small model organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieckher, Matthias; Kyparissidis-Kokkinidis, Ilias; Zacharopoulos, Athanasios; Kourmoulakis, Georgios; Tavernarakis, Nektarios; Ripoll, Jorge; Zacharakis, Giannis

    2015-01-01

    We describe a customizable and cost-effective light sheet microscopy (LSM) platform for rapid three-dimensional imaging of protein dynamics in small model organisms. The system is designed for high acquisition speeds and enables extended time-lapse in vivo experiments when using fluorescently labeled specimens. We demonstrate the capability of the setup to monitor gene expression and protein localization during ageing and upon starvation stress in longitudinal studies in individual or small groups of adult Caenorhabditis elegans nematodes. The system is equipped to readily perform fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP), which allows monitoring protein recovery and distribution under low photobleaching conditions. Our imaging platform is designed to easily switch between light sheet microscopy and optical projection tomography (OPT) modalities. The setup permits monitoring of spatio-temporal expression and localization of ageing biomarkers of subcellular size and can be conveniently adapted to image a wide range of small model organisms and tissue samples.

  17. Overview of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance and Dynamics from ICESat Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwally, H. Jay

    2010-01-01

    The primary purpose of the ICESat mission was to determine the present-day mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, identify changes that may be occurring in the surface-mass flux and ice dynamics, and estimate their contributions to global sea-level rise. Although ICESat's three lasers were planned to make continuous measurements for 3 to 5 years, the mission was re-planned to operate in 33-day campaigns 2 to 3 times each year following failure of the first laser after 36 days. Seventeen campaigns were conducted with the last one in the Fall of 2009. Mass balance maps derived from measured ice-sheet elevation changes show that the mass loss from Greenland has increased significantly to about 170 Gt/yr for 2003 to 2007 from a state of near balance in the 1990's. Increased losses (189 Gt/yr) from melting and dynamic thinning are over seven times larger'than increased gains (25 gt/yr) from precipitation. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula are losing mass at an increasing rate, but other parts of West Antarctica and the East Antarctic ice sheet are gaining mass at an increasing rate. Increased losses of 35 Gt/yr in Pine Island, Thwaites-Smith, and Marie-Bryd.Coast are more than balanced by gains in base of Peninsula and ice stream C, D, & E systems. From the 1992-2002 to 2003-2007 period, the overall mass balance for Antarctica changed from a loss of about 60 Gt/yr to near balance or slightly positive.

  18. A dynamically tunable plasmonic multi-functional device based on graphene nano-sheet pair arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Meng, Zhao; Liang, Ruisheng; Chen, Shijie; Ding, Li; Wang, Faqiang; Liu, Hongzhan; Meng, Hongyun; Wei, Zhongchao

    2018-05-01

    Dynamically tunable plasmonic multi-functional is particularly desirable for various nanotechnological applications. In this paper, graphene nano-sheet pair arrays separated by a substrate, which can act as a dynamically tunable plasmonic band stop filter with transmission at resonance wavelength lower than 1%, a high sensitivity refractive index sensor with sensitivity up to 4879 nm/RIU, figure of merit of 40.66 and a two circuit optical switch with the modulation depth up to 0.998, are proposed and numerically investigated. These excellent optical performances are calculated by using FDTD numerical modeling and theoretical deduction. Simulation results show that a slight variation of chemical potential of the graphene nano-sheet can achieve significant resonance wavelength shifts. In additional, the resonance wavelength and transmission of this plasmonic device can be tuned easily by two voltages owing to the simple patterned graphene. These studies may have great potential in fabrication of multi-functional and dynamically tunable optoelectronic integrated devices.

  19. Plasma sheet fast flows and auroral dynamics during substorm: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. L. Borodkova

    2002-03-01

    Full Text Available Interball-1 observations of a substorm development in the mid-tail on 16 December 1998 are compared with the auroral dynamics obtained from the Polar UV imager. Using these data, the relationship between plasma flow directions in the tail and the location of the auroral activation is examined. Main attention is given to tailward and earth-ward plasma flows, interpreted as signatures of a Near Earth Neutral Line (NENL. It is unambiguously shown that in the mid-plasma sheet the flows were directed tailward when the auroral bulge developed equatorward of the spacecraft ionospheric footprint. On the contrary, when active auroras moved poleward of the Interball-1 projection, earthward fast flow bursts were observed. This confirms the concept that the NENL (or flow reversal region is the source of auroras forming the poleward edge of the auroral bulge. The observed earthward flow bursts have all typical signatures of Bursty Bulk Flows (BBFs, described by Angelopolous et al. (1992. These BBFs are related to substorm activations starting at the poleward edge of the expanded auroral bulge. We interpret the BBFs as a result of reconnection pulses occurring tail-ward of Interball-1. In addition, some non-typically observed phenomena were detected in the plasma sheet during this substorm: (i tailward/earthward flows were superimposed on a very strong duskward flow, and (ii wavy structures of both magnetic field and plasma density were registered. The latter observation is probably linked to the filamentary structure of the current sheet.Key words. Magnetospheric physics (auroral phenomena; plasma sheet; storms and substorms

  20. Dynamics of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets using the borehole, radio sounding and space observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Markov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on data of measurements in deep ice boreholes, as well as of radar and space geodetic observations in Antarctica and Greenland, a number of new features of the ice mass transport had been revealed. Note that these features do not correspond to the traditional but still hypothetical notions (ideas of the monotonous and uniform spatial changes in the ice sheet dynamics. Using results of the long-term monitoring of the borehole coordinate axes at the Vostok station (down to 1920 m, east profile Vostok – Vostok 1 – Pionerskaya – Mirny (1409 km, down to the depth of 450 m, and analysis of radar sections, Russian specialists revealed the following: a the Antarctic ice sheet has stratified changes in speed and a fan-like change in the flow direction along the depth; b plastic firn layer has individual parameters of dynamics and actually flows down from more monolithic body of the ice sheet (the flow directions differ by 30–80°; c in some places inside the sheet, the underlying ice masses flow faster than the upper ones. Researchers from the United States and Denmark registered on the radar sections of the lowest third of the ice domes in the central regions of the Antarctica (AGAP and Greenland (NEEM some folded structures, which were not typical of ice sheets (vertical amplitude of the folds is about 400 m, inclination of the wings is about 45 degrees or more. The tectonic analysis we have performed allows making a conclusion that a genesis of these ice structures is identical to the diapir folds and to diapirs which are formed at a displacement of lower plastic ice masses by the upper monolithic ones, or to echelon folds of crumpling of lower ice layers at their faster flow along original bed as compared with the overlying ice mass. This makes possible to suggest that a turbulent ice flow can occur in the spacious near-bottom and the most plastic area, and a model of the ice sheet dynamics is considered as extruding of

  1. Inference for Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes using an Adaptive m-out-of-n Bootstrap Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Bibhas; Laber, Eric B.; Zhao, Yingqi

    2013-01-01

    Summary A dynamic treatment regime consists of a set of decision rules that dictate how to individualize treatment to patients based on available treatment and covariate history. A common method for estimating an optimal dynamic treatment regime from data is Q-learning which involves nonsmooth operations of the data. This nonsmoothness causes standard asymptotic approaches for inference like the bootstrap or Taylor series arguments to breakdown if applied without correction. Here, we consider the m-out-of-n bootstrap for constructing confidence intervals for the parameters indexing the optimal dynamic regime. We propose an adaptive choice of m and show that it produces asymptotically correct confidence sets under fixed alternatives. Furthermore, the proposed method has the advantage of being conceptually and computationally much more simple than competing methods possessing this same theoretical property. We provide an extensive simulation study to compare the proposed method with currently available inference procedures. The results suggest that the proposed method delivers nominal coverage while being less conservative than alternatives. The proposed methods are implemented in the qLearn R-package and have been made available on the Comprehensive R-Archive Network (http://cran.r-project.org/). Analysis of the Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression (STAR*D) study is used as an illustrative example. PMID:23845276

  2. Long-wave dynamics of an elastic sheet lubricated by a thin liquid film on a wetting substrate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Y.-N.; Stone, H. A.

    2017-06-01

    The dynamics of an elastic sheet lubricated by a thin liquid film on a wetting solid substrate is examined using both numerical simulations of a long-wave lubrication equation and a quasistatic model. Interactions between the liquid and the wetting substrate are modeled by a disjoining pressure that gives rise to an ultrathin (precursor) film. For a fluid interface without elastic bending stiffness, a flat precursor film may be linearly unstable and evolve towards an equilibrium of a single "drop" connected to a flat ultrathin film. Similar behavior is found when the thin film is covered by an elastic sheet: The sheet deforms, rearranging the thin liquid film, and contributes regulating surface forces such as a bending resistance and/or a tensile force, which may arise from interactions between the sheet and liquid or inextensibility of the sheet. Glasner's quasistatic model [Phys. Fluids 15, 1837 (2003), 10.1063/1.1578076], developed for a liquid film, is adopted to investigate the combined effects of elastic and tensile forces in the sheet on the thin film dynamics. The equilibrium height of the drop is found to vary inversely with the bending rigidity. When the elastic sheet is inextensible (such as a lipid bilayer membrane), a compressive tensile force may occur and the equilibrium film height is dependent less on the bending rigidity and more on the excess area of the membrane. Analyses of the lubrication equation also show that the precursor film transitions monotonically to the core film for tension-dominated dynamics. In contrast, for elasticity-dominated dynamics, a spatial oscillation of film height in the contact line region is found. In addition, elasticity in the sheet causes a sliding motion of the thin film: the contact angle is rendered zero by elasticity, and the contact line moves at a finite speed.

  3. Heinrich event 1: an example of dynamical ice-sheet reaction to oceanic changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Álvarez-Solas

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Heinrich events, identified as enhanced ice-rafted detritus (IRD in North Atlantic deep sea sediments (Heinrich, 1988; Hemming, 2004 have classically been attributed to Laurentide ice-sheet (LIS instabilities (MacAyeal, 1993; Calov et al., 2002; Hulbe et al., 2004 and assumed to lead to important disruptions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC and North Atlantic deep water (NADW formation. However, recent paleoclimate data have revealed that most of these events probably occurred after the AMOC had already slowed down or/and NADW largely collapsed, within about a thousand years (Hall et al., 2006; Hemming, 2004; Jonkers et al., 2010; Roche et al., 2004, implying that the initial AMOC reduction could not have been caused by the Heinrich events themselves.

    Here we propose an alternative driving mechanism, specifically for Heinrich event 1 (H1; 18 to 15 ka BP, by which North Atlantic ocean circulation changes are found to have strong impacts on LIS dynamics. By combining simulations with a coupled climate model and a three-dimensional ice sheet model, our study illustrates how reduced NADW and AMOC weakening lead to a subsurface warming in the Nordic and Labrador Seas resulting in rapid melting of the Hudson Strait and Labrador ice shelves. Lack of buttressing by the ice shelves implies a substantial ice-stream acceleration, enhanced ice-discharge and sea level rise, with peak values 500–1500 yr after the initial AMOC reduction. Our scenario modifies the previous paradigm of H1 by solving the paradox of its occurrence during a cold surface period, and highlights the importance of taking into account the effects of oceanic circulation on ice-sheets dynamics in order to elucidate the triggering mechanism of Heinrich events.

  4. Opinion Dynamics on Networks with Inference of Unobservable States of Others

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujie, Ryo

    In most opinion formation models which have been proposed, the agents decide their states (i.e. opinions) by referring to the states of others. However, the referred states of others are not necessarily observable and may be inferred. To investigate the effect of an inference of the states of others on opinion dynamics, I propose an extended voter model on networks where observable and referable node sets are different. These sets for a node defined as the nearest to the mo-th neighbors for observable nodes and the nearest to the mr-th neighbors for referable nodes. The state of referable but unobservable node which is the m-th neighbor (mo pagerank'' is conserved. This conserved quantity coincides with the fixation probability. On the other hand, in the case of mo =mr = 1 , the model comes down to the standard voter model on networks and the conserved quantity is a degree-weighted superposition of the states. Thus, the introduction of the inference changes the important opinion spreaders from the high-degree nodes to the high-betweenness pagerank nodes. This work is supported by the Collaboration Research Program of IDEAS, Chubu University IDEAS2016233.

  5. connecting the dots between Greenland ice sheet surface melting and ice flow dynamics (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Box, J. E.; Colgan, W. T.; Fettweis, X.; Phillips, T. P.; Stober, M.

    2013-12-01

    This presentation is of a 'unified theory' in glaciology that first identifies surface albedo as a key factor explaining total ice sheet mass balance and then surveys a mechanistic self-reinforcing interaction between melt water and ice flow dynamics. The theory is applied in a near-real time total Greenland mass balance retrieval based on surface albedo, a powerful integrator of the competing effects of accumulation and ablation. New snowfall reduces sunlight absorption and increases meltwater retention. Melting amplifies absorbed sunlight through thermal metamorphism and bare ice expansion in space and time. By ';following the melt'; we reveal mechanisms linking existing science into a unified theory. Increasing meltwater softens the ice sheet in three ways: 1.) sensible heating given the water temperature exceeds that of the ice sheet interior; 2.) Some infiltrating water refreezes, transferring latent heat to the ice; 3.) Friction from water turbulence heats the ice. It has been shown that for a point on the ice sheet, basal lubrication increases ice flow speed to a time when an efficient sub-glacial drainage network develops that reduces this effect. Yet, with an increasing melt duration the point where the ice sheet glides on a wet bed increases inland to a larger area. This effect draws down the ice surface elevation, contributing to the ';elevation feedback'. In a perpetual warming scenario, the elevation feedback ultimately leads to ice sheet loss reversible only through much slower ice sheet growth in an ice age environment. As the inland ice sheet accelerates, the horizontal extension pulls cracks and crevasses open, trapping more sunlight, amplifying the effect of melt accelerated ice. As the bare ice area increases, the direct sun-exposed crevassed and infiltration area increases further allowing the ice warming process to occur more broadly. Considering hydrofracture [a.k.a. hydrofracking]; surface meltwater fills cracks, attacking the ice integrity

  6. Inference of RNA polymerase II transcription dynamics from chromatin immunoprecipitation time course data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciira wa Maina

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Gene transcription mediated by RNA polymerase II (pol-II is a key step in gene expression. The dynamics of pol-II moving along the transcribed region influence the rate and timing of gene expression. In this work, we present a probabilistic model of transcription dynamics which is fitted to pol-II occupancy time course data measured using ChIP-Seq. The model can be used to estimate transcription speed and to infer the temporal pol-II activity profile at the gene promoter. Model parameters are estimated using either maximum likelihood estimation or via Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The Bayesian approach provides confidence intervals for parameter estimates and allows the use of priors that capture domain knowledge, e.g. the expected range of transcription speeds, based on previous experiments. The model describes the movement of pol-II down the gene body and can be used to identify the time of induction for transcriptionally engaged genes. By clustering the inferred promoter activity time profiles, we are able to determine which genes respond quickly to stimuli and group genes that share activity profiles and may therefore be co-regulated. We apply our methodology to biological data obtained using ChIP-seq to measure pol-II occupancy genome-wide when MCF-7 human breast cancer cells are treated with estradiol (E2. The transcription speeds we obtain agree with those obtained previously for smaller numbers of genes with the advantage that our approach can be applied genome-wide. We validate the biological significance of the pol-II promoter activity clusters by investigating cluster-specific transcription factor binding patterns and determining canonical pathway enrichment. We find that rapidly induced genes are enriched for both estrogen receptor alpha (ERα and FOXA1 binding in their proximal promoter regions.

  7. HyFIS: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems and their application to nonlinear dynamical systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J; Kasabov, N

    1999-11-01

    This paper proposes an adaptive neuro-fuzzy system, HyFIS (Hybrid neural Fuzzy Inference System), for building and optimising fuzzy models. The proposed model introduces the learning power of neural networks to fuzzy logic systems and provides linguistic meaning to the connectionist architectures. Heuristic fuzzy logic rules and input-output fuzzy membership functions can be optimally tuned from training examples by a hybrid learning scheme comprised of two phases: rule generation phase from data; and rule tuning phase using error backpropagation learning scheme for a neural fuzzy system. To illustrate the performance and applicability of the proposed neuro-fuzzy hybrid model, extensive simulation studies of nonlinear complex dynamic systems are carried out. The proposed method can be applied to an on-line incremental adaptive learning for the prediction and control of nonlinear dynamical systems. Two benchmark case studies are used to demonstrate that the proposed HyFIS system is a superior neuro-fuzzy modelling technique.

  8. Complexity characterization in a probabilistic approach to dynamical systems through information geometry and inductive inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, S A; Kim, D-H; Cafaro, C; Giffin, A

    2012-01-01

    Information geometric techniques and inductive inference methods hold great promise for solving computational problems of interest in classical and quantum physics, especially with regard to complexity characterization of dynamical systems in terms of their probabilistic description on curved statistical manifolds. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of describing the macroscopic behavior of complex systems in terms of the underlying statistical structure of their microscopic degrees of freedom by the use of statistical inductive inference and information geometry. We review the maximum relative entropy formalism and the theoretical structure of the information geometrodynamical approach to chaos on statistical manifolds M S . Special focus is devoted to a description of the roles played by the sectional curvature K M S , the Jacobi field intensity J M S and the information geometrodynamical entropy S M S . These quantities serve as powerful information-geometric complexity measures of information-constrained dynamics associated with arbitrary chaotic and regular systems defined on M S . Finally, the application of such information-geometric techniques to several theoretical models is presented.

  9. Data-driven Inference and Investigation of Thermosphere Dynamics and Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, P. M.; Linares, R.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents a methodology for data-driven inference and investigation of thermosphere dynamics and variations. The approach uses data-driven modal analysis to extract the most energetic modes of variations for neutral thermospheric species using proper orthogonal decomposition, where the time-independent modes or basis represent the dynamics and the time-depedent coefficients or amplitudes represent the model parameters. The data-driven modal analysis approach combined with sparse, discrete observations is used to infer amplitues for the dynamic modes and to calibrate the energy content of the system. In this work, two different data-types, namely the number density measurements from TIMED/GUVI and the mass density measurements from CHAMP/GRACE are simultaneously ingested for an accurate and self-consistent specification of the thermosphere. The assimilation process is achieved with a non-linear least squares solver and allows estimation/tuning of the model parameters or amplitudes rather than the driver. In this work, we use the Naval Research Lab's MSIS model to derive the most energetic modes for six different species, He, O, N2, O2, H, and N. We examine the dominant drivers of variations for helium in MSIS and observe that seasonal latitudinal variation accounts for about 80% of the dynamic energy with a strong preference of helium for the winter hemisphere. We also observe enhanced helium presence near the poles at GRACE altitudes during periods of low solar activity (Feb 2007) as previously deduced. We will also examine the storm-time response of helium derived from observations. The results are expected to be useful in tuning/calibration of the physics-based models.

  10. Sliding Dynamics of Parallel Graphene Sheets: Effect of Geometry and Van Der Waals Interactions on Nano-Spring Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Crisafulli

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Graphene and carbon nanotubes are promising materials for nanoelectromechanical systems. Among other aspects, a proper understanding of the sliding dynamics of parallel graphene sheets or concentric nanotubes is of crucial importance for the design of nano-springs. Here, we analytically investigate the sliding dynamics between two parallel, rigid graphene sheets. In particular, the analysis focuses on configurations in which the distance between the sheets is kept constant and lower than the equilibrium interlayer spacing of graphite (unstable configurations. The aim is to understand how the interlayer force due to van der Waals interactions along the sliding direction changes with the geometrical characteristics of the configuration, namely size and interlayer spacing. Results show metastable equilibrium positions with completely faced sheets, namely a null force along the sliding direction, whereas net negative/positive forces arise when the sheets are approaching/leaving each other. This behavior resembles a molecular spring, being able to convert kinetic into potential energy (van der Waals potential, and viceversa. The amplitude of both storable energy and entrance/exit forces is found to be proportional to the sheet size, and inversely proportional to their interlayer spacing. This model could also be generalized to describe the behavior of configurations made of concentric carbon nanotubes, therefore allowing a rational design of some elements of carbon-based nanoelectromechanical systems.

  11. Maximum extent and dynamic behaviour of the last British-Irish Ice Sheet west of Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Jared Lee; Benetti, Sara; Dunlop, Paul; Ó Cofaigh, Colm

    2015-11-01

    A complete reconstruction of the last British-Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) is hindered by uncertainty surrounding its offshore extent and dynamic behaviour. This study addresses this problem by reconstructing the depositional history of four sediment cores taken from a series of sinuous glacigenic sediment ridges on the continental shelf west of Ireland. We present new geomorphic, sedimentary and micropaleontological data that record a maximum westward BIIS extent that was at least 80 km farther offshore from any previous estimates. The data suggests that a large ice shelf formed over parts of the shelf prior to retreat. This new data increases the areal extent of grounded BIIS ice by ∼6700 km2 from previous estimates, which represents a ∼3% increase in the Irish Sector of the ice sheet. Three new AMS radiocarbon dates demonstrate for the first time that the BIIS advanced to the shelf edge during last glaciation (Late Midlandian/Late Devensian), with ice advance onto the Porcupine Bank occurring after 24,720 ± 260 yr Cal. BP. Deglaciation was complete by 19,182 ± 155 yr Cal. BP, thus constraining BIIS occupation over the Porcupine Bank to less than 5500 years. Estimated retreat rates of marine-terminating ice across the shelf range from ∼70 to 180 myr-1.

  12. Collective dynamics of bursty particle precipitation initiating in the inner and outer plasma sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. M. Uritsky

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Using multiscale spatiotemporal analysis of bursty precipitation events in the nighttime aurora as seen by the POLAR UVI instrument, we report a set of new statistical signatures of high- and low-latitude auroral activity, signaling a strongly non-uniform distribution of dissipation mechanism in the plasma sheet. We show that small-scale electron emission events that initiate in the equatorward portion of the nighttime auroral oval (scaling mode A1 have systematically steeper power-law slopes of energy, power, area, and lifetime probability distributions compared to the events that initiate at higher latitudes (mode B. The low-latitude group of events also contain a small but energetically important subpopulation of substorm-scale disturbances (mode A2 described by anomalously low distribution exponents characteristic of barely stable thermodynamic systems that are prone to large-scale sporadic reorganization. The high latitude events (mode can be accurately described by a single set of distributions exponents over the entire range of studied scales, with the exponent values consistent with globally stable self-organized critical (SOC behavior. The low- and high latitude events have distinct inter-trigger time statistics, and are characterized by significantly different MLT distributions. Based on these results we conjecture that the inner and outer portions of the plasma sheet are associated with two (or more mechanisms of collective dynamics that may represent an interplay between current disruption and magnetic reconnection scenarios of bursty energy conversion in the magnetotail.

  13. Analysis of Dynamic Coupling Characteristics of the Slope Reinforced by Sheet Pile Wall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. L. Qu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Large deformation of slope caused by earthquake can lead to the loss of stability of slope and its retaining structures. At present, there have been some research achievements about the slope reinforcement of stabilizing piles. However, due to the complexity of the structural system, the coupling relationship between soil and pile is still not well understood. Hence it is of great necessity to study its dynamic characteristics further. In view of this, a numerical model was established by FLAC3D in this paper, and the deformation and stress nephogram of sheet pile wall in peak ground motion acceleration (PGA at 0.1 g, 0.2 g, and 0.4 g were obtained. Through the analysis, some conclusions were obtained. Firstly, based on the nephogram of motion characteristics and the positions of the slip surface and the retaining wall, the reinforced slope can be divided into 6 sections approximatively, namely, the sliding body parts of A, B, C, D, and E and the bedrock part F. Secondly, the deformation and stress distributions of slope reinforced by sheet pile wall were carefully studied. Based on the results of deformation calculation from time history analysis, the interaction force between structure and soil can be estimated by the difference of peak horizontal displacements, and the structure-soil coupling law under earthquake can be studied by this approach.

  14. Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, William A.; Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna

    2008-06-01

    Grandmont [J.M. Grandmont, On endogenous competitive business cycles, Econometrica 53 (1985) 995-1045] found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic models is stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with many forms of multiperiodic dynamics in between. The econometric implications of Grandmont’s findings are particularly important, if bifurcation boundaries cross the confidence regions surrounding parameter estimates in policy-relevant models. Stratification of a confidence region into bifurcated subsets seriously damages robustness of dynamical inferences. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New-Keynesian models. As a result, in this paper we explore bifurcation within the class of New-Keynesian models. We develop the econometric theory needed to locate bifurcation boundaries in log-linearized New-Keynesian models with Taylor policy rules or inflation-targeting policy rules. Central results needed in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the cases that we consider.

  15. Geothermal Heat Flux: Linking Deep Earth's Interior and the Dynamics of Large-Scale Ice Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogozhina, Irina; Vaughan, Alan

    2014-05-01

    Greenland results from the remanent effects of an Early Cenozoic passage of the lithosphere above the Iceland mantle plume that is implicated in strong thermochemical erosion of the lithosphere and significant long-term effects on the present-day subglacial heat flow pattern and thermodynamic state of the Greenland ice sheet. These observations and our modeling results (Petrunin et al., 2013) show that the present-day thermal state of Greenland and Antarctic lithosphere cannot be well understood without taking into account a long-term tectonic history of these regions. The goal of the IceGeoHeat project is to combine existing independent geophysical data and innovative modeling approaches to comprehensively study the evolution and present state of the lithosphere in Greenland and Antarctica, and assess the role of geothermal heat flux in shaping the present-day ice sheet dynamics. This requires multiple collaborations involving experts across a range of disciplines. The project builds on the IceGeoHeat initiative formed in April 2012 and now including researchers from ten countries in the main core (MC) with expertise in numerical modeling and data assessment in geodynamics, geology, geothermics, cryosphere and (paleo-)climate. Petrunin, A., Rogozhina, I., Vaughan, A. P. M., Kukkonen, I. T., Kaban, M., Koulakov, I., Thomas, M. (2013): Heat flux variations beneath central Greenland's ice due to anomalously thin lithosphere. - Nature Geoscience, 6, 746-750.

  16. Inferring Characteristics of Sensorimotor Behavior by Quantifying Dynamics of Animal Locomotion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, KaWai

    Locomotion is one of the most well-studied topics in animal behavioral studies. Many fundamental and clinical research make use of the locomotion of an animal model to explore various aspects in sensorimotor behavior. In the past, most of these studies focused on population average of a specific trait due to limitation of data collection and processing power. With recent advance in computer vision and statistical modeling techniques, it is now possible to track and analyze large amounts of behavioral data. In this thesis, I present two projects that aim to infer the characteristics of sensorimotor behavior by quantifying the dynamics of locomotion of nematode Caenorhabditis elegans and fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, shedding light on statistical dependence between sensing and behavior. In the first project, I investigate the possibility of inferring noxious sensory information from the behavior of Caenorhabditis elegans. I develop a statistical model to infer the heat stimulus level perceived by individual animals from their stereotyped escape responses after stimulation by an IR laser. The model allows quantification of analgesic-like effects of chemical agents or genetic mutations in the worm. At the same time, the method is able to differentiate perturbations of locomotion behavior that are beyond affecting the sensory system. With this model I propose experimental designs that allows statistically significant identification of analgesic-like effects. In the second project, I investigate the relationship of energy budget and stability of locomotion in determining the walking speed distribution of Drosophila melanogaster during aging. The locomotion stability at different age groups is estimated from video recordings using Floquet theory. I calculate the power consumption of different locomotion speed using a biomechanics model. In conclusion, the power consumption, not stability, predicts the locomotion speed distribution at different ages.

  17. Ecological modeling from time-series inference: insight into dynamics and stability of intestinal microbiota.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard R Stein

    Full Text Available The intestinal microbiota is a microbial ecosystem of crucial importance to human health. Understanding how the microbiota confers resistance against enteric pathogens and how antibiotics disrupt that resistance is key to the prevention and cure of intestinal infections. We present a novel method to infer microbial community ecology directly from time-resolved metagenomics. This method extends generalized Lotka-Volterra dynamics to account for external perturbations. Data from recent experiments on antibiotic-mediated Clostridium difficile infection is analyzed to quantify microbial interactions, commensal-pathogen interactions, and the effect of the antibiotic on the community. Stability analysis reveals that the microbiota is intrinsically stable, explaining how antibiotic perturbations and C. difficile inoculation can produce catastrophic shifts that persist even after removal of the perturbations. Importantly, the analysis suggests a subnetwork of bacterial groups implicated in protection against C. difficile. Due to its generality, our method can be applied to any high-resolution ecological time-series data to infer community structure and response to external stimuli.

  18. Mocapy++ - A toolkit for inference and learning in dynamic Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamelryck Thomas

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mocapy++ is a toolkit for parameter learning and inference in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs. It supports a wide range of DBN architectures and probability distributions, including distributions from directional statistics (the statistics of angles, directions and orientations. Results The program package is freely available under the GNU General Public Licence (GPL from SourceForge http://sourceforge.net/projects/mocapy. The package contains the source for building the Mocapy++ library, several usage examples and the user manual. Conclusions Mocapy++ is especially suitable for constructing probabilistic models of biomolecular structure, due to its support for directional statistics. In particular, it supports the Kent distribution on the sphere and the bivariate von Mises distribution on the torus. These distributions have proven useful to formulate probabilistic models of protein and RNA structure in atomic detail.

  19. Inference of epidemiological dynamics based on simulated phylogenies using birth-death and coalescent models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boskova, Veronika; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian; Stadler, Tanja

    2014-11-01

    Quantifying epidemiological dynamics is crucial for understanding and forecasting the spread of an epidemic. The coalescent and the birth-death model are used interchangeably to infer epidemiological parameters from the genealogical relationships of the pathogen population under study, which in turn are inferred from the pathogen genetic sequencing data. To compare the performance of these widely applied models, we performed a simulation study. We simulated phylogenetic trees under the constant rate birth-death model and the coalescent model with a deterministic exponentially growing infected population. For each tree, we re-estimated the epidemiological parameters using both a birth-death and a coalescent based method, implemented as an MCMC procedure in BEAST v2.0. In our analyses that estimate the growth rate of an epidemic based on simulated birth-death trees, the point estimates such as the maximum a posteriori/maximum likelihood estimates are not very different. However, the estimates of uncertainty are very different. The birth-death model had a higher coverage than the coalescent model, i.e. contained the true value in the highest posterior density (HPD) interval more often (2-13% vs. 31-75% error). The coverage of the coalescent decreases with decreasing basic reproductive ratio and increasing sampling probability of infecteds. We hypothesize that the biases in the coalescent are due to the assumption of deterministic rather than stochastic population size changes. Both methods performed reasonably well when analyzing trees simulated under the coalescent. The methods can also identify other key epidemiological parameters as long as one of the parameters is fixed to its true value. In summary, when using genetic data to estimate epidemic dynamics, our results suggest that the birth-death method will be less sensitive to population fluctuations of early outbreaks than the coalescent method that assumes a deterministic exponentially growing infected

  20. Inference of epidemiological dynamics based on simulated phylogenies using birth-death and coalescent models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Boskova

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying epidemiological dynamics is crucial for understanding and forecasting the spread of an epidemic. The coalescent and the birth-death model are used interchangeably to infer epidemiological parameters from the genealogical relationships of the pathogen population under study, which in turn are inferred from the pathogen genetic sequencing data. To compare the performance of these widely applied models, we performed a simulation study. We simulated phylogenetic trees under the constant rate birth-death model and the coalescent model with a deterministic exponentially growing infected population. For each tree, we re-estimated the epidemiological parameters using both a birth-death and a coalescent based method, implemented as an MCMC procedure in BEAST v2.0. In our analyses that estimate the growth rate of an epidemic based on simulated birth-death trees, the point estimates such as the maximum a posteriori/maximum likelihood estimates are not very different. However, the estimates of uncertainty are very different. The birth-death model had a higher coverage than the coalescent model, i.e. contained the true value in the highest posterior density (HPD interval more often (2-13% vs. 31-75% error. The coverage of the coalescent decreases with decreasing basic reproductive ratio and increasing sampling probability of infecteds. We hypothesize that the biases in the coalescent are due to the assumption of deterministic rather than stochastic population size changes. Both methods performed reasonably well when analyzing trees simulated under the coalescent. The methods can also identify other key epidemiological parameters as long as one of the parameters is fixed to its true value. In summary, when using genetic data to estimate epidemic dynamics, our results suggest that the birth-death method will be less sensitive to population fluctuations of early outbreaks than the coalescent method that assumes a deterministic exponentially growing

  1. Analytical and molecular dynamics studies on the impact loading of single-layered graphene sheet by fullerene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini-Hashemi, Shahrokh; Sepahi-Boroujeni, Amin; Sepahi-Boroujeni, Saeid

    2018-04-01

    Normal impact performance of a system including a fullerene molecule and a single-layered graphene sheet is studied in the present paper. Firstly, through a mathematical approach, a new contact law is derived to describe the overall non-bonding interaction forces of the "hollow indenter-target" system. Preliminary verifications show that the derived contact law gives a reliable picture of force field of the system which is in good agreements with the results of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Afterwards, equation of the transversal motion of graphene sheet is utilized on the basis of both the nonlocal theory of elasticity and the assumptions of classical plate theory. Then, to derive dynamic behavior of the system, a set including the proposed contact law and the equations of motion of both graphene sheet and fullerene molecule is solved numerically. In order to evaluate outcomes of this method, the problem is modeled by MD simulation. Despite intrinsic differences between analytical and MD methods as well as various errors arise due to transient nature of the problem, acceptable agreements are established between analytical and MD outcomes. As a result, the proposed analytical method can be reliably used to address similar impact problems. Furthermore, it is found that a single-layered graphene sheet is capable of trapping fullerenes approaching with low velocities. Otherwise, in case of rebound, the sheet effectively absorbs predominant portion of fullerene energy.

  2. Collective dynamics of bursty particle precipitation initiating in the inner and outer plasma sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. M. Uritsky

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Using multiscale spatiotemporal analysis of bursty precipitation events in the nighttime aurora as seen by the POLAR UVI instrument, we report a set of new statistical signatures of high- and low-latitude auroral activity, signaling a strongly non-uniform distribution of dissipation mechanism in the plasma sheet. We show that small-scale electron emission events that initiate in the equatorward portion of the nighttime auroral oval (scaling mode A1 have systematically steeper power-law slopes of energy, power, area, and lifetime probability distributions compared to the events that initiate at higher latitudes (mode B. The low-latitude group of events also contain a small but energetically important subpopulation of substorm-scale disturbances (mode A2 described by anomalously low distribution exponents characteristic of barely stable thermodynamic systems that are prone to large-scale sporadic reorganization. The high latitude events (mode can be accurately described by a single set of distributions exponents over the entire range of studied scales, with the exponent values consistent with globally stable self-organized critical (SOC behavior. The low- and high latitude events have distinct inter-trigger time statistics, and are characterized by significantly different MLT distributions. Based on these results we conjecture that the inner and outer portions of the plasma sheet are associated with two (or more mechanisms of collective dynamics that may represent an interplay between current disruption and magnetic reconnection scenarios of bursty energy conversion in the magnetotail.

  3. Evolutionary dynamism in bryophytes: Phylogenomic inferences confirm rapid radiation in the moss family Funariaceae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Rafael; Johnson, Matthew; Liu, Yang; Wilding, Nicholas; Hedderson, Terry A; Wickett, Norman; Goffinet, Bernard

    2018-03-01

    Rapid diversifications of plants are primarily documented and studied in angiosperms, which are perceived as evolutionarily dynamic. Recent studies have, however, revealed that bryophytes have also undergone periods of rapid radiation. The speciose family Funariaceae, including the model taxon Physcomitrella patens, is one such lineage. Here, we infer relationships among major lineages within the Entosthodon-Physcomitrium complex from virtually complete organellar exomes (i.e., 123 genes) obtained through high throughput sequencing of genomic libraries enriched in these loci via targeted locus capture. Based on these extensive exonic data we (1) reconstructed a robust backbone topology of the Funariaceae, (2) confirmed the monophyly of Funaria and the polyphyly of Entosthodon, Physcomitrella, and Physcomitrium, and (3) argue for the occurrence of a rapid radiation within the Entosthodon-Physcomitrium complex that began 28 mya and gave rise more than half of the species diversity of the family. This diversification may have been triggered by a whole genome duplication and coincides with global Eocene cooling that continued through the Oligocene and Miocene. The Funariaceae join a growing list of bryophyte lineages whose history is marked by at least one burst of diversification, and our study thereby strengthens the view that bryophytes are evolutionarily dynamic lineages and that patterns and processes characterizing the evolution of angiosperms may be universal among land plants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Unmodeled observation error induces bias when inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence via aural detections

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClintock, Brett T.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

    2010-01-01

    The recent surge in the development and application of species occurrence models has been associated with an acknowledgment among ecologists that species are detected imperfectly due to observation error. Standard models now allow unbiased estimation of occupancy probability when false negative detections occur, but this is conditional on no false positive detections and sufficient incorporation of explanatory variables for the false negative detection process. These assumptions are likely reasonable in many circumstances, but there is mounting evidence that false positive errors and detection probability heterogeneity may be much more prevalent in studies relying on auditory cues for species detection (e.g., songbird or calling amphibian surveys). We used field survey data from a simulated calling anuran system of known occupancy state to investigate the biases induced by these errors in dynamic models of species occurrence. Despite the participation of expert observers in simplified field conditions, both false positive errors and site detection probability heterogeneity were extensive for most species in the survey. We found that even low levels of false positive errors, constituting as little as 1% of all detections, can cause severe overestimation of site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction probabilities. Further, unmodeled detection probability heterogeneity induced substantial underestimation of occupancy and overestimation of colonization and local extinction probabilities. Completely spurious relationships between species occurrence and explanatory variables were also found. Such misleading inferences would likely have deleterious implications for conservation and management programs. We contend that all forms of observation error, including false positive errors and heterogeneous detection probabilities, must be incorporated into the estimation framework to facilitate reliable inferences about occupancy and its associated vital rate parameters.

  5. The role of synoptic weather variability in Greenland ice sheet dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, J. M.; Radic, V.

    2017-12-01

    Much of the large uncertainty in predictions of future global sea level rise is due to our limited understanding of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) motion and its interactions with climate. Over the next century, climate models predict that the GrIS will experience not only gradual warming, but also changes in atmospheric circulation, hydrology, and weather, including a northward shift of the North Atlantic storm track, with greater frequency and intensity of rain storms over the GrIS. Recent studies of GrIS dynamics have focused on the effects of increased seasonal mean meltwater on ice velocities, finding only a modest impact due to compensation by subglacial drainage systems, but subglacial hydraulic theory indicates that variability on shorter timescales is also relevant: short-term surges in meltwater or rainfall can overload drainage systems at rates faster than they can adjust, leading to water pressure spikes and ice acceleration. If the magnitude or frequency of these transient ice accelerations increase substantially as synoptic weather patterns change over the next century, there could be a significant cumulative impact on seasonal mean ice velocities. However, this issue has not been addressed in the literature and represents a major source of uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the role of synoptic weather variability in GrIS dynamics, with the ultimate goal of evaluating the relationships between extreme weather events and ice sheet flow in different seasons and regions of the GrIS. As a first step, we apply the machine learning technique of self-organizing maps to atmospheric reanalysis data to categorize the predominant synoptic weather systems over the GrIS domain, evaluating atmospheric moisture transport and rainfall to assess the impacts of each weather system on GrIS surface hydrology. The preliminary results presented here will be used in conjunction with ice velocity satellite measurements in future work, to identify any correlations

  6. Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Stephen F; Payne, Antony J; Howat, Ian M; Smith, Benjamin E

    2011-05-31

    We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing.

  7. Modeling the Self-organized Critical Behavior of the Plasma Sheet Reconnection Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimas, Alex; Uritsky, Vadim; Baker, Daniel

    2006-01-01

    Analyses of Polar UVI auroral image data reviewed in our other presentation at this meeting (V. Uritsky, A. Klimas) show that bright night-side high-latitude UV emissions exhibit so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality (SOC) that an alternate interpretation has become virtually impossible. It is now necessary to find and model the source of this behavior. We note that the most common models of self-organized criticality are numerical sandpiles. These are, at root, models that govern the transport of some quantity from a region where it is loaded to another where it is unloaded. Transport is enabled by the excitation of a local threshold instability; it is intermittent and bursty, and it exhibits a number of scale-free statistical properties. Searching for a system in the magnetosphere that is analogous and that, in addition, is known to produce auroral signatures, we focus on the reconnection dynamics of the plasma sheet. In our previous work, a driven reconnection model has been constructed and has been under study. The transport of electromagnetic (primarily magnetic) energy carried by the Poynting flux into the reconnection region of the model has been examined. All of the analysis techniques, and more, that have been applied to the auroral image data have also been applied to this Poynting flux. Here, we report new results showing that this model also exhibits so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality that an alternate interpretation is implausible. Further, we find a strong correlation between these key properties of the model and those of the auroral UV emissions. We suggest that, in general, the driven reconnection model is an important step toward a realistic plasma physical model of self-organized criticality and we conclude, more specifically, that it is also a step in the right direction toward modeling the multiscale reconnection dynamics of the magnetotail.

  8. Modeling the Self-organized Critical Behavior of Earth's Plasma Sheet Reconnection Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimas, Alexander J.

    2006-01-01

    Analyses of Polar UVI auroral image data show that bright night-side high-latitude W emissions exhibit so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality that an alternate interpretation has become virtually impossible. These analyses will be reviewed. It is now necessary to find and model the source of this behavior. We note that the most common models of self-organized criticality are numerical sandpiles. These are, at root, models that govern the transport of some quantity from a region where it is loaded to another where it is unloaded. Transport is enabled by the excitation of a local threshold instability; it is intermittent and bursty, and it exhibits a number of scale-free statistical properties. Searching for a system in the magnetosphere that is analogous and that, in addition, is known to produce auroral signatures, we focus on the reconnection dynamics of the magnetotail plasma sheet. In our previous work, a driven reconnection model has been constructed and has been under study. The transport of electromagnetic (primarily magnetic) energy carried by the Poynting flux into the reconnection region of the model has been examined. All of the analysis techniques (and more) that have been applied to the auroral image data have also been applied to this Poynting flux. New results will be presented showing that this model also exhibits so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality that an alternate interpretation is implausible. A strong correlation between these key properties of the model and those of the auroral UV emissions will be demonstrated. We suggest that, in general, the driven reconnection model is an important step toward a realistic plasma physical model of self-organized criticality and we conclude, more specifically, that it is also a step in the right direction toward modeling the multiscale reconnection dynamics of the magnetotail.

  9. Dark ice dynamics of the south-west Greenland Ice Sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Tedstone

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS has increased in recent years due largely to changes in atmospheric circulation and atmospheric warming. Albedo reductions resulting from these changes have amplified surface melting. Some of the largest declines in GrIS albedo have occurred in the ablation zone of the south-west sector and are associated with the development of dark ice surfaces. Field observations at local scales reveal that a variety of light-absorbing impurities (LAIs can be present on the surface, ranging from inorganic particulates to cryoconite materials and ice algae. Meanwhile, satellite observations show that the areal extent of dark ice has varied significantly between recent successive melt seasons. However, the processes that drive such large interannual variability in dark ice extent remain essentially unconstrained. At present we are therefore unable to project how the albedo of bare ice sectors of the GrIS will evolve in the future, causing uncertainty in the projected sea level contribution from the GrIS over the coming decades. Here we use MODIS satellite imagery to examine dark ice dynamics on the south-west GrIS each year from 2000 to 2016. We quantify dark ice in terms of its annual extent, duration, intensity and timing of first appearance. Not only does dark ice extent vary significantly between years but so too does its duration (from 0 to > 80 % of June–July–August, JJA, intensity and the timing of its first appearance. Comparison of dark ice dynamics with potential meteorological drivers from the regional climate model MAR reveals that the JJA sensible heat flux, the number of positive minimum-air-temperature days and the timing of bare ice appearance are significant interannual synoptic controls. We use these findings to identify the surface processes which are most likely to explain recent dark ice dynamics. We suggest that whilst the spatial distribution of dark ice is best explained by

  10. Dark ice dynamics of the south-west Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tedstone, Andrew J.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Cook, Joseph M.; Williamson, Christopher J.; Fettweis, Xavier; Hodson, Andrew J.; Tranter, Martyn

    2017-11-01

    Runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has increased in recent years due largely to changes in atmospheric circulation and atmospheric warming. Albedo reductions resulting from these changes have amplified surface melting. Some of the largest declines in GrIS albedo have occurred in the ablation zone of the south-west sector and are associated with the development of dark ice surfaces. Field observations at local scales reveal that a variety of light-absorbing impurities (LAIs) can be present on the surface, ranging from inorganic particulates to cryoconite materials and ice algae. Meanwhile, satellite observations show that the areal extent of dark ice has varied significantly between recent successive melt seasons. However, the processes that drive such large interannual variability in dark ice extent remain essentially unconstrained. At present we are therefore unable to project how the albedo of bare ice sectors of the GrIS will evolve in the future, causing uncertainty in the projected sea level contribution from the GrIS over the coming decades. Here we use MODIS satellite imagery to examine dark ice dynamics on the south-west GrIS each year from 2000 to 2016. We quantify dark ice in terms of its annual extent, duration, intensity and timing of first appearance. Not only does dark ice extent vary significantly between years but so too does its duration (from 0 to > 80 % of June-July-August, JJA), intensity and the timing of its first appearance. Comparison of dark ice dynamics with potential meteorological drivers from the regional climate model MAR reveals that the JJA sensible heat flux, the number of positive minimum-air-temperature days and the timing of bare ice appearance are significant interannual synoptic controls. We use these findings to identify the surface processes which are most likely to explain recent dark ice dynamics. We suggest that whilst the spatial distribution of dark ice is best explained by outcropping of particulates from

  11. Multi-decadal dynamic thinning on the northwest margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Niels Jákup; Kjær, Kurt H.; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas

    Ice mass changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet have been estimated since the early 1990s from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite gravity mission, of ice sheet thinning from satellite radar altimetry and airborne laser altimetry, and of increased velocities of outlet glaciers...

  12. Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Fürst

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Continuing global warming will have a strong impact on the Greenland ice sheet in the coming centuries. During the last decade (2000–2010, both increased melt-water runoff and enhanced ice discharge from calving glaciers have contributed 0.6 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 to global sea-level rise, with a relative contribution of 60 and 40% respectively. Here we use a higher-order ice flow model, spun up to present day, to simulate future ice volume changes driven by both atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes. For these projections, the flow model accounts for runoff-induced basal lubrication and ocean warming-induced discharge increase at the marine margins. For a suite of 10 atmosphere and ocean general circulation models and four representative concentration pathway scenarios, the projected sea-level rise between 2000 and 2100 lies in the range of +1.4 to +16.6 cm. For two low emission scenarios, the projections are conducted up to 2300. Ice loss rates are found to abate for the most favourable scenario where the warming peaks in this century, allowing the ice sheet to maintain a geometry close to the present-day state. For the other moderate scenario, loss rates remain at a constant level over 300 years. In any scenario, volume loss is predominantly caused by increased surface melting as the contribution from enhanced ice discharge decreases over time and is self-limited by thinning and retreat of the marine margin, reducing the ice–ocean contact area. As confirmed by other studies, we find that the effect of enhanced basal lubrication on the volume evolution is negligible on centennial timescales. Our projections show that the observed rates of volume change over the last decades cannot simply be extrapolated over the 21st century on account of a different balance of processes causing ice loss over time. Our results also indicate that the largest source of uncertainty arises from the surface mass balance and the underlying climate change

  13. Macroevolutionary dynamics and historical biogeography of primate diversification inferred from a species supermatrix.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark S Springer

    Full Text Available Phylogenetic relationships, divergence times, and patterns of biogeographic descent among primate species are both complex and contentious. Here, we generate a robust molecular phylogeny for 70 primate genera and 367 primate species based on a concatenation of 69 nuclear gene segments and ten mitochondrial gene sequences, most of which were extracted from GenBank. Relaxed clock analyses of divergence times with 14 fossil-calibrated nodes suggest that living Primates last shared a common ancestor 71-63 Ma, and that divergences within both Strepsirrhini and Haplorhini are entirely post-Cretaceous. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction of non-avian dinosaurs played an important role in the diversification of placental mammals. Previous queries into primate historical biogeography have suggested Africa, Asia, Europe, or North America as the ancestral area of crown primates, but were based on methods that were coopted from phylogeny reconstruction. By contrast, we analyzed our molecular phylogeny with two methods that were developed explicitly for ancestral area reconstruction, and find support for the hypothesis that the most recent common ancestor of living Primates resided in Asia. Analyses of primate macroevolutionary dynamics provide support for a diversification rate increase in the late Miocene, possibly in response to elevated global mean temperatures, and are consistent with the fossil record. By contrast, diversification analyses failed to detect evidence for rate-shift changes near the Eocene-Oligocene boundary even though the fossil record provides clear evidence for a major turnover event ("Grande Coupure" at this time. Our results highlight the power and limitations of inferring diversification dynamics from molecular phylogenies, as well as the sensitivity of diversification analyses to different species concepts.

  14. Glacial landforms identified in high-resolution bathymetry indicate past Greenland ice sheet dynamics in Melville Bay, northeast Baffin Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slabon, Patricia; Dorschel, Boris; Jokat, Wilfried; Myklebust, Reidun; Hebbeln, Dierk; Gebhardt, Catalina

    2017-04-01

    The maximum glacial extent of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and its advance and retreat across the continental shelf are crucial to better understand past ice-sheet dynamics and to predict its future development in times of climate change. Analyses of distribution and shape of glacial landforms are, thus, used to interpret information on ice-stream advances and retreats across the shelf. This study focuses on the past dynamics of the northwest GIS across the Greenland continental shelf. The research area is located in the Melville Bay, northeast Baffin Bay. Our interpretations base on analyses of high-resolution swath-bathymetric data acquired in 2010 and 2015 with the research vessels RV Polarstern and RV Maria S. Merian. The bathymetric data provide information along and across the axes of the major cross-shelf troughs of Melville Bay, allowing us to reconstruct the ice-sheet dynamics between the shelf edge and the present-day coast. The results of the analyses show glacial landforms that document former dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). Moraines at the shelf edge give evidence for the maximum GIS extent. Grounding-zone wedges (GZWs), till lobes and glacial lineations define a pattern of variable ice-stream retreat in the individual cross-shelf troughs. Slow ice-stream retreat occurred in the northern cross-shelf trough compared to more episodic retreats in the central and southern cross-shelf troughs of Melville Bay. Periods of ice sheet grounding-zone stabilizations are indicated by large GZW-complexes on the mid- to inner shelf. Finally, the northwest GIS retreated across the inner continental shelf before 8.41 ka BP as revealed by an age-dated geological sample. Furthermore, on inter-trough banks, evidence has been found for minor ice-stream activity on localized ice domes. The glacial landforms across the northwest Greenland continental shelf, thus, host records of varying and discontinuous ice-sheet retreats since the last glacial maximum.

  15. Dynamic Antarctic ice sheet during the early to mid-Miocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasson, Edward; DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David; Levy, Richard H.

    2016-03-01

    Geological data indicate that there were major variations in Antarctic ice sheet volume and extent during the early to mid-Miocene. Simulating such large-scale changes is problematic because of a strong hysteresis effect, which results in stability once the ice sheets have reached continental size. A relatively narrow range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations indicated by proxy records exacerbates this problem. Here, we are able to simulate large-scale variability of the early to mid-Miocene Antarctic ice sheet because of three developments in our modeling approach. (i) We use a climate-ice sheet coupling method utilizing a high-resolution atmospheric component to account for ice sheet-climate feedbacks. (ii) The ice sheet model includes recently proposed mechanisms for retreat into deep subglacial basins caused by ice-cliff failure and ice-shelf hydrofracture. (iii) We account for changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of the ice sheet by using isotope-enabled climate and ice sheet models. We compare our modeling results with ice-proximal records emerging from a sedimentological drill core from the Ross Sea (Andrill-2A) that is presented in a companion article. The variability in Antarctic ice volume that we simulate is equivalent to a seawater oxygen isotope signal of 0.52-0.66‰, or a sea level equivalent change of 30-36 m, for a range of atmospheric CO2 between 280 and 500 ppm and a changing astronomical configuration. This result represents a substantial advance in resolving the long-standing model data conflict of Miocene Antarctic ice sheet and sea level variability.

  16. Measurement and inference of profile soil-water dynamics at different hillslope positions in a semiarid agricultural watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Timothy R.; Erskine, Robert H.

    2011-12-01

    Dynamics of profile soil water vary with terrain, soil, and plant characteristics. The objectives addressed here are to quantify dynamic soil water content over a range of slope positions, infer soil profile water fluxes, and identify locations most likely influenced by multidimensional flow. The instrumented 56 ha watershed lies mostly within a dryland (rainfed) wheat field in semiarid eastern Colorado. Dielectric capacitance sensors were used to infer hourly soil water content for approximately 8 years (minus missing data) at 18 hillslope positions and four or more depths. Based on previous research and a new algorithm, sensor measurements (resonant frequency) were rescaled to estimate soil permittivity, then corrected for temperature effects on bulk electrical conductivity before inferring soil water content. Using a mass-conservation method, we analyzed multitemporal changes in soil water content at each sensor to infer the dynamics of water flux at different depths and landscape positions. At summit positions vertical processes appear to control profile soil water dynamics. At downslope positions infrequent overland flow and unsaturated subsurface lateral flow appear to influence soil water dynamics. Crop water use accounts for much of the variability in soil water between transects that are either cropped or fallow in alternating years, while soil hydraulic properties and near-surface hydrology affect soil water variability across landscape positions within each management zone. The observed spatiotemporal patterns exhibit the joint effects of short-term hydrology and long-term soil development. Quantitative methods of analyzing soil water patterns in space and time improve our understanding of dominant soil hydrological processes and provide alternative measures of model performance.

  17. Dynamics of Melting and Melt Migration as Inferred from Incompatible Trace Element Abundance in Abyssal Peridotites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Q.; Liang, Y.

    2008-12-01

    To better understand the melting processes beneath the mid-ocean ridge, we developed a simple model for trace element fractionation during concurrent melting and melt migration in an upwelling steady-state mantle column. Based on petrologic considerations, we divided the upwelling mantle into two regions: a double- lithology upper region where high permeability dunite channels are embedded in a lherzolite/harzburgite matrix, and a single-lithology lower region that consists of partially molten lherzolite. Melt generated in the single lithology region migrates upward through grain-scale diffuse porous flow, whereas melt in the lherzolite/harzburgite matrix in the double-lithology region is allowed to flow both vertically through the overlying matrix and horizontally into its neighboring dunite channels. There are three key dynamic parameters in our model: degree of melting experienced by the single lithology column (Fd), degree of melting experienced by the double lithology column (F), and a dimensionless melt suction rate (R) that measures the accumulated rate of melt extraction from the matrix to the channel relative to the accumulated rate of matrix melting. In terms of trace element fractionation, upwelling and melting in the single lithology column is equivalent to non-modal batch melting (R = 0), whereas melting and melt migration in the double lithology region is equivalent to a nonlinear combination of non-modal batch and fractional melting (0 abyssal peridotite, we showed, with the help of Monte Carlo simulations, that it is difficult to invert for all three dynamic parameters from a set of incompatible trace element data with confidence. However, given Fd, it is quite possible to constrain F and R from incompatible trace element abundances in residual peridotite. As an illustrative example, we used the simple melting model developed in this study and selected REE and Y abundance in diopside from abyssal peridotites to infer their melting and melt migration

  18. Eruptive Dynamics Inferred from Textural Analysis of Ash Time Series: The 2015 Reawakening of Cotopaxi Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaunt, H. E.; Bernard, B.; Hidalgo, S.; Proaño, A.; Wright, H. M. N.; Mothes, P. A.; Criollo, E.

    2016-12-01

    Analysis of the composition and texture of ash ejected during eruptive episodes can provide valuable information about magma storage and ascent conditions. After 73 years of repose, Cotopaxi volcano erupted after approximately four months of precursory activity that included an increase in seismicity, gas emissions, and minor ground deformation. High frequency ash sampling was realized throughout the new eruptive period and near real-time petrological monitoring of ash samples was used to infer eruption dynamics at Cotopaxi volcano. We collected twenty ash samples between August 14 and November 23, 2015 from a seismic monitoring site on the west flank of the volcano. We classified the different components of the ash into four groups: hydrothermal/altered grains, lithic fragments, potentially juvenile material, and free crystals. The relative proportions of theses grains evolved as the eruption progressed, with increasing amounts of potentially juvenile material and a decrease in hydrothermally altered material through time. Potentially juvenile grains from the initial explosion are microlite-poor and contain hydrothermal minerals (opal and alunite) in contact with fresh glass. The interaction of juvenile magma with the hydrothermal system may have provided the energy to trigger phreatomagmatic explosions at Cotopaxi. However, only the initial explosions preserve textural evidence for this process. Completely aphyric, glassy fragments are absent; likewise, the absence of highly vesiculated pumice or scoria indicates that fragmentation was not the result of bubble wall breakage due to rapid exsolution and expansion of gas in the melt. Furthermore, the crystallinity of juvenile particles increased through time, indicating slowing integrated ascent rates. Nevertheless, continued high SO2 emission rates indicate that the system was open to gas loss, which inhibited the pressurization of the conduit through gas accumulation, reducing the short term possibility of a large

  19. Challenges to inferring causality from viral information dispersion in dynamic social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ternovski, John

    2014-06-01

    Understanding the mechanism behind large-scale information dispersion through complex networks has important implications for a variety of industries ranging from cyber-security to public health. With the unprecedented availability of public data from online social networks (OSNs) and the low cost nature of most OSN outreach, randomized controlled experiments, the "gold standard" of causal inference methodologies, have been used with increasing regularity to study viral information dispersion. And while these studies have dramatically furthered our understanding of how information disseminates through social networks by isolating causal mechanisms, there are still major methodological concerns that need to be addressed in future research. This paper delineates why modern OSNs are markedly different from traditional sociological social networks and why these differences present unique challenges to experimentalists and data scientists. The dynamic nature of OSNs is particularly troublesome for researchers implementing experimental designs, so this paper identifies major sources of bias arising from network mutability and suggests strategies to circumvent and adjust for these biases. This paper also discusses the practical considerations of data quality and collection, which may adversely impact the efficiency of the estimator. The major experimental methodologies used in the current literature on virality are assessed at length, and their strengths and limits identified. Other, as-yetunsolved threats to the efficiency and unbiasedness of causal estimators--such as missing data--are also discussed. This paper integrates methodologies and learnings from a variety of fields under an experimental and data science framework in order to systematically consolidate and identify current methodological limitations of randomized controlled experiments conducted in OSNs.

  20. Features of energetic particle radial profiles inferred from geosynchronous responses to solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Shi

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Determination of the radial profile of phase space density of relativistic electrons at constant adiabatic invariants is crucial for identifying the source for them within the outer radiation belt. The commonly used method is to convert flux observed at fixed energy to phase space density at constant first, second and third adiabatic invariants, which requires an empirical global magnetic field model and thus might produce some uncertainties in the final results. From a different perspective, in this paper we indirectly infer the shape of the radial profile of phase space density of relativistic electrons near the geosynchronous region by statistically examining the geosynchronous energetic flux response to 128 solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements during the years 2000 to 2003. We thus avoid the disadvantage of using empirical magnetic field models. Our results show that the flux response is species and energy dependent. For protons and low-energy electrons, the primary response to magnetospheric compression is an increase in flux at geosynchronous orbit. For relativistic electrons, the dominant response is a decrease in flux, which implies that the phase space density decreases toward increasing radial distance at geosynchronous orbit and leads to a local peak inside of geosynchronous orbit. The flux response of protons and non-relativistic electrons could result from a phase density that increases toward increasing radial distance, but this cannot be determined for sure due to the particle energization associated with pressure enhancements. Our results for relativistic electrons are consistent with previous results obtained using magnetic field models, thus providing additional confirmation that these results are correct and indicating that they are not the result of errors in their selected magnetic field model.

  1. MASS BALANCE CHANGES AND ICE DYNAMICS OF GREENLAND AND ANTARCTIC ICE SHEETS FROM LASER ALTIMETRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Babonis

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available During the past few decades the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have lost ice at accelerating rates, caused by increasing surface temperature. The melting of the two big ice sheets has a big impact on global sea level rise. If the ice sheets would melt down entirely, the sea level would rise more than 60 m. Even a much smaller rise would cause dramatic damage along coastal regions. In this paper we report about a major upgrade of surface elevation changes derived from laser altimetry data, acquired by NASA’s Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite mission (ICESat and airborne laser campaigns, such as Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM and Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS. For detecting changes in ice sheet elevations we have developed the Surface Elevation Reconstruction And Change detection (SERAC method. It computes elevation changes of small surface patches by keeping the surface shape constant and considering the absolute values as surface elevations. We report about important upgrades of earlier results, for example the inclusion of local ice caps and the temporal extension from 1993 to 2014 for the Greenland Ice Sheet and for a comprehensive reconstruction of ice thickness and mass changes for the Antarctic Ice Sheets.

  2. Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E.; Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Nowicki, S.

    2014-06-01

    The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves. We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS. We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45 mm yr-1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

  3. Future Antarctic Bed Topography and Its Implications for Ice Sheet Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Surendra; Ivins, Erik R.; Larour, Eric Y.; Seroussi, Helene L.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Nowicki, S.

    2014-01-01

    The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves.We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS.We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45mmyr-1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

  4. Temperature and heat flux changes at the base of Laurentide ice sheet inferred from geothermal data (evidence from province of Alberta, Canada)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Demezhko, D.; Gornostaeva, A.; Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, Jan

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 107, č. 1 (2018), s. 113-121 ISSN 1437-3254 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : borehole temperature * paleoclimate reconstruction * surface heat flux * ground surface temperature * Laurentide ice sheet Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.283, year: 2016

  5. The Trajectory Method and the Description of Charged Particles Dynamics in the Current Sheet Magnetic Field Geometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasunov, Y.; Schwarzbauer, G.; Khodachenko, M. L.; Alexeev, I. I.; Belenkaya, E. S.; Gubchenko, V. M.

    2017-12-01

    The current sheets (CSs) in space plasma appear as fundamental objects which play an important role in structuring and dynamical evolution of the global magnetic environments of astrophysical and space objects. The physical nature of the current sheet consists in specific motion of the current-creating particles which has a strong non-linear character. By this, the self-consistent description of dynamics of the current-creating particles in CS is one of the key challenging tasks of the space plasma physics. The collisionless specifics of the typical space plasma flow, e.g. that of the solar wind (or the Earth magnetosphere), justifies a one-particle approach to the analysis of the dynamics of the current-creating particles in a CS. It consists in consideration of a single particle motion in an inhomogeneous magnetic field, based on the analysis of equation of motion in Cartesian coordinates. By this, particle dynamics, defined by the equation of motion, can be expressed in terms of angular variables (pitch-angle and the gyrating phase), which are specifically connected to each other along the particle trajectory in a local coordinate system related to the magnetic field. The analysis of the angular variables enables finding of easy and comprehensive solutions for a number of elementary problems which constitute the background for more complex natural cases in space physics. This approach also allows obtaining of a set of the self-consistent CS-type solutions for different geometries of the magnetic field.

  6. Experimental study of nonlinear interaction of plasma flow with charged thin current sheets: 2. Hall dynamics, mass and momentum transfer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Savin

    2006-01-01

    cyclotron one, in extended turbulent zones are a promising alternative in place of the usual parallel electric fields invoked in the macro-reconnection scenarios. Further cascading towards electron scales is supposed to be due to unstable parallel electron currents, which neutralize the potential differences, either resulted from the ion- burst interactions or from the inertial drift. The complicated MP shape suggests its systematic velocity departure from the local normal towards the average one, inferring domination for the MP movement of the non-local processes over the small-scale local ones. The measured Poynting vector indicates energy transmission from the MP into the upstream region with the waves triggering impulsive downstream flows, providing an input into the local flow balance and the outward movement of the MP. Equating the transverse electric field inside the MP TCS by the Hall term in the Ohm's law implies a separation of the different plasmas primarily by the Hall current, driven by the respective part of the TCS surface charge. The Hall dynamics of TCS can operate either without or as a part of a macro-reconnection with the magnetic field annihilation.

  7. Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Winter, R.C.; Reerink, T.J.; Slangen, A.B.A.; de Vries, H.; Edwards, T.L.; van de Wal, R.S.W.

    2017-01-01

    Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of

  8. A molecular dynamics study on the interaction between epoxy and functionalized graphene sheets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melro, Liliana Sofia S. F. P.; Pyrz, Ryszard; Jensen, Lars Rosgaard

    2016-01-01

    groups, as well as their distribution and coverage density on the graphene sheets were also analysed through the determination of the Young's modulus. Functionalisation proved to be detrimental to the mechanical properties, nonetheless according to interfacial studies the interaction between graphene...

  9. Inference for Ecological Dynamical Systems: A Case Study of Two Endemic Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel A. Vasco

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is used to infer parameters for an open stochastic epidemiological model: the Markovian susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR model, which is suitable for modeling and simulating recurrent epidemics. This allows exploring two major problems of inference appearing in many mechanistic population models. First, trajectories of these processes are often only partly observed. For example, during an epidemic the transmission process is only partly observable: one cannot record infection times. Therefore, one only records cases (infections as the observations. As a result some means of imputing or reconstructing individuals in the susceptible cases class must be accomplished. Second, the official reporting of observations (cases in epidemiology is typically done not as they are actually recorded but at some temporal interval over which they have been aggregated. To address these issues, this paper investigates the following problems. Parameter inference for a perfectly sampled open Markovian SIR is first considered. Next inference for an imperfectly observed sample path of the system is studied. Although this second problem has been solved for the case of closed epidemics, it has proven quite difficult for the case of open recurrent epidemics. Lastly, application of the statistical theory is made to measles and pertussis epidemic time series data from 60 UK cities.

  10. On-the-fly analysis of molecular dynamics simulation trajectories of proteins using the Bayesian inference method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyashita, Naoyuki; Yonezawa, Yasushige

    2017-09-01

    Robust and reliable analyses of long trajectories from molecular dynamics simulations are important for investigations of functions and mechanisms of proteins. Structural fitting is necessary for various analyses of protein dynamics, thus removing time-dependent translational and rotational movements. However, the fitting is often difficult for highly flexible molecules. Thus, to address the issues, we proposed a fitting algorithm that uses the Bayesian inference method in combination with rotational fitting-weight improvements, and the well-studied globular protein systems trpcage and lysozyme were used for investigations. The present method clearly identified rigid core regions that fluctuate less than other regions and also separated core regions from highly fluctuating regions with greater accuracy than conventional methods. Our method also provided simultaneous variance-covariance matrix elements composed of atomic coordinates, allowing us to perform principle component analysis and prepare domain cross-correlation map during molecular dynamics simulations in an on-the-fly manner.

  11. Application of Non-Kolmogorovian Probability and Quantum Adaptive Dynamics to Unconscious Inference in Visual Perception Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Accardi, Luigi; Khrennikov, Andrei; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu; Yamato, Ichiro

    2016-07-01

    Recently a novel quantum information formalism — quantum adaptive dynamics — was developed and applied to modelling of information processing by bio-systems including cognitive phenomena: from molecular biology (glucose-lactose metabolism for E.coli bacteria, epigenetic evolution) to cognition, psychology. From the foundational point of view quantum adaptive dynamics describes mutual adapting of the information states of two interacting systems (physical or biological) as well as adapting of co-observations performed by the systems. In this paper we apply this formalism to model unconscious inference: the process of transition from sensation to perception. The paper combines theory and experiment. Statistical data collected in an experimental study on recognition of a particular ambiguous figure, the Schröder stairs, support the viability of the quantum(-like) model of unconscious inference including modelling of biases generated by rotation-contexts. From the probabilistic point of view, we study (for concrete experimental data) the problem of contextuality of probability, its dependence on experimental contexts. Mathematically contextuality leads to non-Komogorovness: probability distributions generated by various rotation contexts cannot be treated in the Kolmogorovian framework. At the same time they can be embedded in a “big Kolmogorov space” as conditional probabilities. However, such a Kolmogorov space has too complex structure and the operational quantum formalism in the form of quantum adaptive dynamics simplifies the modelling essentially.

  12. Efficient Model Order Reduction for the Dynamics of Nonlinear Multilayer Sheet Structures with Trial Vector Derivatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Witteveen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanical response of multilayer sheet structures, such as leaf springs or car bodies, is largely determined by the nonlinear contact and friction forces between the sheets involved. Conventional computational approaches based on classical reduction techniques or the direct finite element approach have an inefficient balance between computational time and accuracy. In the present contribution, the method of trial vector derivatives is applied and extended in order to obtain a-priori trial vectors for the model reduction which are suitable for determining the nonlinearities in the joints of the reduced system. Findings show that the result quality in terms of displacements and contact forces is comparable to the direct finite element method but the computational effort is extremely low due to the model order reduction. Two numerical studies are presented to underline the method’s accuracy and efficiency. In conclusion, this approach is discussed with respect to the existing body of literature.

  13. Texture evolution in thin-sheets on AISI 301 metastable stainless steel under dynamic loading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, K.Y. [Posco Steels, Pohan, South Korea (Korea, Republic of); Kozaczek, K. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Kulkarni, S.M. [TRW Vehicle Safety Systems, Mesa, AZ (United States); Bastias, P.C.; Hahn, G.T. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1995-05-08

    The evolution of texture in thin sheets of metastable austenitic stainless steel AISI 301 is affected by external conditions such as loading rate and temperature, by inhomogeneous deformation phenomena such as twinning and shear band formation, and by the concurent strain induced phase transformation of the retained austenitc ({gamma}) into martensite ({alpha}). The present paper describes texture measurements on different gauges of AISI 301 prior and after uniaxial stretching under different conditions.

  14. Gene regulatory network inference and validation using relative change ratio analysis and time-delayed dynamic Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Peng; Gong, Ping; Li, Haoni; Perkins, Edward J; Wang, Nan; Zhang, Chaoyang

    2014-12-01

    The Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM) project was initiated in 2006 as a community-wide effort for the development of network inference challenges for rigorous assessment of reverse engineering methods for biological networks. We participated in the in silico network inference challenge of DREAM3 in 2008. Here we report the details of our approach and its performance on the synthetic challenge datasets. In our methodology, we first developed a model called relative change ratio (RCR), which took advantage of the heterozygous knockdown data and null-mutant knockout data provided by the challenge, in order to identify the potential regulators for the genes. With this information, a time-delayed dynamic Bayesian network (TDBN) approach was then used to infer gene regulatory networks from time series trajectory datasets. Our approach considerably reduced the searching space of TDBN; hence, it gained a much higher efficiency and accuracy. The networks predicted using our approach were evaluated comparatively along with 29 other submissions by two metrics (area under the ROC curve and area under the precision-recall curve). The overall performance of our approach ranked the second among all participating teams.

  15. Microbial DNA fingerprinting of human fingerprints: dynamic colonization of fingertip microflora challenges human host inferences for forensic purposes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tims, Sebastian; van Wamel, Willem; Endtz, Hubert P; van Belkum, Alex; Kayser, Manfred

    2010-09-01

    Human fingertip microflora is transferred to touched objects and may provide forensically relevant information on individual hosts, such as on geographic origins, if endogenous microbial skin species/strains would be retrievable from physical fingerprints and would carry geographically restricted DNA diversity. We tested the suitability of physical fingerprints for revealing human host information, with geographic inference as example, via microbial DNA fingerprinting. We showed that the transient exogenous fingertip microflora is frequently different from the resident endogenous bacteria of the same individuals. In only 54% of the experiments, the DNA analysis of the transient fingertip microflora allowed the detection of defined, but often not the major, elements of the resident microflora. Although we found microbial persistency in certain individuals, time-wise variation of transient and resident microflora within individuals was also observed when resampling fingerprints after 3 weeks. While microbial species differed considerably in their frequency spectrum between fingerprint samples from volunteers in Europe and southern Asia, there was no clear geographic distinction between Staphylococcus strains in a cluster analysis, although bacterial genotypes did not overlap between both continental regions. Our results, though limited in quantity, clearly demonstrate that the dynamic fingerprint microflora challenges human host inferences for forensic purposes including geographic ones. Overall, our results suggest that human fingerprint microflora is too dynamic to allow for forensic marker developments for retrieving human information.

  16. Changes in ice dynamics and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rignot, Eric

    2006-07-15

    The concept that the Antarctic ice sheet changes with eternal slowness has been challenged by recent observations from satellites. Pronounced regional warming in the Antarctic Peninsula triggered ice shelf collapse, which led to a 10-fold increase in glacier flow and rapid ice sheet retreat. This chain of events illustrated the vulnerability of ice shelves to climate warming and their buffering role on the mass balance of Antarctica. In West Antarctica, the Pine Island Bay sector is draining far more ice into the ocean than is stored upstream from snow accumulation. This sector could raise sea level by 1m and trigger widespread retreat of ice in West Antarctica. Pine Island Glacier accelerated 38% since 1975, and most of the speed up took place over the last decade. Its neighbour Thwaites Glacier is widening up and may double its width when its weakened eastern ice shelf breaks up. Widespread acceleration in this sector may be caused by glacier ungrounding from ice shelf melting by an ocean that has recently warmed by 0.3 degrees C. In contrast, glaciers buffered from oceanic change by large ice shelves have only small contributions to sea level. In East Antarctica, many glaciers are close to a state of mass balance, but sectors grounded well below sea level, such as Cook Ice Shelf, Ninnis/Mertz, Frost and Totten glaciers, are thinning and losing mass. Hence, East Antarctica is not immune to changes.

  17. Landquake dynamics inferred from seismic source inversion: Greenland and Sichuan events of 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, W. A.

    2017-12-01

    In June 2017 two catastrophic landquake events occurred in Greenland and Sichuan. The Greenland event leads to tsunami hazard in the small town of Nuugaarsiaq. A landquake in Sichuan hit the town, which resulted in over 100 death. Both two events generated the strong seismic signals recorded by the real-time global seismic network. I adopt an inversion algorithm to derive the landquake force time history (LFH) using the long-period waveforms, and the landslide volume ( 76 million m3) can be rapidly estimated, facilitating the tsunami-wave modeling for early warning purpose. Based on an integrated approach involving tsunami forward simulation and seismic waveform inversion, this study has significant implications to issuing actionable warnings before hazardous tsunami waves strike populated areas. Two single-forces (SFs) mechanism (two block model) yields the best explanation for Sichuan event, which demonstrates that secondary event (seismic inferred volume: 8.2 million m3) may be mobilized by collapse-mass hitting from initial rock avalanches ( 5.8 million m3), likely causing a catastrophic disaster. The later source with a force magnitude of 0.9967×1011 N occurred 70 seconds after first mass-movement occurrence. In contrast, first event has the smaller force magnitude of 0.8116×1011 N. In conclusion, seismically inferred physical parameters will substantially contribute to improving our understanding of landquake source mechanisms and mitigating similar hazards in other parts of the world.

  18. Inferring dynamic gene networks under varying conditions for transcriptomic network comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimamura, Teppei; Imoto, Seiya; Yamaguchi, Rui; Nagasaki, Masao; Miyano, Satoru

    2010-04-15

    Elucidating the differences between cellular responses to various biological conditions or external stimuli is an important challenge in systems biology. Many approaches have been developed to reverse engineer a cellular system, called gene network, from time series microarray data in order to understand a transcriptomic response under a condition of interest. Comparative topological analysis has also been applied based on the gene networks inferred independently from each of the multiple time series datasets under varying conditions to find critical differences between these networks. However, these comparisons often lead to misleading results, because each network contains considerable noise due to the limited length of the time series. We propose an integrated approach for inferring multiple gene networks from time series expression data under varying conditions. To the best of our knowledge, our approach is the first reverse-engineering method that is intended for transcriptomic network comparison between varying conditions. Furthermore, we propose a state-of-the-art parameter estimation method, relevance-weighted recursive elastic net, for providing higher precision and recall than existing reverse-engineering methods. We analyze experimental data of MCF-7 human breast cancer cells stimulated by epidermal growth factor or heregulin with several doses and provide novel biological hypotheses through network comparison. The software NETCOMP is available at http://bonsai.ims.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ approximately shima/NETCOMP/.

  19. Variability of dynamic source parameters inferred from kinematic models of past earthquakes

    KAUST Repository

    Causse, M.

    2013-12-24

    We analyse the scaling and distribution of average dynamic source properties (fracture energy, static, dynamic and apparent stress drops) using 31 kinematic inversion models from 21 crustal earthquakes. Shear-stress histories are computed by solving the elastodynamic equations while imposing the slip velocity of a kinematic source model as a boundary condition on the fault plane. This is achieved using a 3-D finite difference method in which the rupture kinematics are modelled with the staggered-grid-split-node fault representation method of Dalguer & Day. Dynamic parameters are then estimated from the calculated stress-slip curves and averaged over the fault plane. Our results indicate that fracture energy, static, dynamic and apparent stress drops tend to increase with magnitude. The epistemic uncertainty due to uncertainties in kinematic inversions remains small (ϕ ∼ 0.1 in log10 units), showing that kinematic source models provide robust information to analyse the distribution of average dynamic source parameters. The proposed scaling relations may be useful to constrain friction law parameters in spontaneous dynamic rupture calculations for earthquake source studies, and physics-based near-source ground-motion prediction for seismic hazard and risk mitigation.

  20. Modeling the evolution of the Laurentide Ice Sheet from MIS 3 to the Last Glacial Maximum: an approach using sea level modeling and ice flow dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisenberg, J.; Pico, T.; Birch, L.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2017-12-01

    The history of the Laurentide Ice Sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum ( 26 ka; LGM) is constrained by geological evidence of ice margin retreat in addition to relative sea-level (RSL) records in both the near and far field. Nonetheless, few observations exist constraining the ice sheet's extent across the glacial build-up phase preceding the LGM. Recent work correcting RSL records along the U.S. mid-Atlantic dated to mid-MIS 3 (50-35 ka) for glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) infer that the Laurentide Ice Sheet grew by more than three-fold in the 15 ky leading into the LGM. Here we test the plausibility of a late and extremely rapid glaciation by driving a high-resolution ice sheet model, based on a nonlinear diffusion equation for the ice thickness. We initialize this model at 44 ka with the mid-MIS 3 ice sheet configuration proposed by Pico et al. (2017), GIA-corrected basal topography, and mass balance representative of mid-MIS 3 conditions. These simulations predict rapid growth of the eastern Laurentide Ice Sheet, with rates consistent with achieving LGM ice volumes within 15 ky. We use these simulations to refine the initial ice configuration and present an improved and higher resolution model for North American ice cover during mid-MIS 3. In addition we show that assumptions of ice loads during the glacial phase, and the associated reconstructions of GIA-corrected basal topography, produce a bias that can underpredict ice growth rates in the late stages of the glaciation, which has important consequences for our understanding of the speed limit for ice growth on glacial timescales.

  1. The Active Inference Approach to Ecological Perception: General Information Dynamics for Natural and Artificial Embodied Cognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Linson

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The emerging neurocomputational vision of humans as embodied, ecologically embedded, social agents—who shape and are shaped by their environment—offers a golden opportunity to revisit and revise ideas about the physical and information-theoretic underpinnings of life, mind, and consciousness itself. In particular, the active inference framework (AIF makes it possible to bridge connections from computational neuroscience and robotics/AI to ecological psychology and phenomenology, revealing common underpinnings and overcoming key limitations. AIF opposes the mechanistic to the reductive, while staying fully grounded in a naturalistic and information-theoretic foundation, using the principle of free energy minimization. The latter provides a theoretical basis for a unified treatment of particles, organisms, and interactive machines, spanning from the inorganic to organic, non-life to life, and natural to artificial agents. We provide a brief introduction to AIF, then explore its implications for evolutionary theory, ecological psychology, embodied phenomenology, and robotics/AI research. We conclude the paper by considering implications for machine consciousness.

  2. Ensembles of Spiking Neurons with Noise Support Optimal Probabilistic Inference in a Dynamically Changing Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legenstein, Robert; Maass, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    It has recently been shown that networks of spiking neurons with noise can emulate simple forms of probabilistic inference through “neural sampling”, i.e., by treating spikes as samples from a probability distribution of network states that is encoded in the network. Deficiencies of the existing model are its reliance on single neurons for sampling from each random variable, and the resulting limitation in representing quickly varying probabilistic information. We show that both deficiencies can be overcome by moving to a biologically more realistic encoding of each salient random variable through the stochastic firing activity of an ensemble of neurons. The resulting model demonstrates that networks of spiking neurons with noise can easily track and carry out basic computational operations on rapidly varying probability distributions, such as the odds of getting rewarded for a specific behavior. We demonstrate the viability of this new approach towards neural coding and computation, which makes use of the inherent parallelism of generic neural circuits, by showing that this model can explain experimentally observed firing activity of cortical neurons for a variety of tasks that require rapid temporal integration of sensory information. PMID:25340749

  3. Imaging Search for Dynamically Inferred Planets in Nearby Debris Disk Systems [Dataset

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janson, M.; Carson, J.; Lafreniere, D.; Spiegel, D.; Quanz, S.; Thalmann, C.; Amara, A.

    2012-01-01

    The nearby stars Eps Eri, Vega, and Fomalhaut all host large debris disks with morphological structures that can be interpreted as being due to dynamical influence from unseen giant planets residing in the systems. At the ages of the systems of a few hundred Myrs, such planets are expected to have

  4. Seeing with the Mind: The Relationship Between Spatial Ability and Inferring Dynamic Behaviour from Graphs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldhuis, G.A.; Korzilius, H.

    2016-01-01

    Research has shown that many individuals have difficulties solving tasks that involve a principal component of dynamic systems: accumulation. They incorrectly assume that the behavioural pattern of a stock resembles that of its flows and vice versa. This has become known as correlation heuristic

  5. A canonical correlation analysis-based dynamic bayesian network prior to infer gene regulatory networks from multiple types of biological data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baur, Brittany; Bozdag, Serdar

    2015-04-01

    One of the challenging and important computational problems in systems biology is to infer gene regulatory networks (GRNs) of biological systems. Several methods that exploit gene expression data have been developed to tackle this problem. In this study, we propose the use of copy number and DNA methylation data to infer GRNs. We developed an algorithm that scores regulatory interactions between genes based on canonical correlation analysis. In this algorithm, copy number or DNA methylation variables are treated as potential regulator variables, and expression variables are treated as potential target variables. We first validated that the canonical correlation analysis method is able to infer true interactions in high accuracy. We showed that the use of DNA methylation or copy number datasets leads to improved inference over steady-state expression. Our results also showed that epigenetic and structural information could be used to infer directionality of regulatory interactions. Additional improvements in GRN inference can be gleaned from incorporating the result in an informative prior in a dynamic Bayesian algorithm. This is the first study that incorporates copy number and DNA methylation into an informative prior in dynamic Bayesian framework. By closely examining top-scoring interactions with different sources of epigenetic or structural information, we also identified potential novel regulatory interactions.

  6. DREAM3: network inference using dynamic context likelihood of relatedness and the inferelator.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aviv Madar

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Many current works aiming to learn regulatory networks from systems biology data must balance model complexity with respect to data availability and quality. Methods that learn regulatory associations based on unit-less metrics, such as Mutual Information, are attractive in that they scale well and reduce the number of free parameters (model complexity per interaction to a minimum. In contrast, methods for learning regulatory networks based on explicit dynamical models are more complex and scale less gracefully, but are attractive as they may allow direct prediction of transcriptional dynamics and resolve the directionality of many regulatory interactions.We aim to investigate whether scalable information based methods (like the Context Likelihood of Relatedness method and more explicit dynamical models (like Inferelator 1.0 prove synergistic when combined. We test a pipeline where a novel modification of the Context Likelihood of Relatedness (mixed-CLR, modified to use time series data is first used to define likely regulatory interactions and then Inferelator 1.0 is used for final model selection and to build an explicit dynamical model.Our method ranked 2nd out of 22 in the DREAM3 100-gene in silico networks challenge. Mixed-CLR and Inferelator 1.0 are complementary, demonstrating a large performance gain relative to any single tested method, with precision being especially high at low recall values. Partitioning the provided data set into four groups (knock-down, knock-out, time-series, and combined revealed that using comprehensive knock-out data alone provides optimal performance. Inferelator 1.0 proved particularly powerful at resolving the directionality of regulatory interactions, i.e. "who regulates who" (approximately of identified true positives were correctly resolved. Performance drops for high in-degree genes, i.e. as the number of regulators per target gene increases, but not with out-degree, i.e. performance is not affected by

  7. Time Dynamic Modeling and Inference Approaches for Outcomes in Patients on Dialysis

    OpenAIRE

    Estes, Jason

    2015-01-01

    In the first chapter of this work, we characterize the dynamics of cardiovascular event risk trajectories for patients on dialysis while conditioning on survival status via multiple time indices: (1) time since the start of dialysis, (2) time since the pivotal initial infection-related hospitalization and (3) the patient's age at the start of dialysis. This is achieved by using a new class of generalized multiple-index varying coefficient (GM-IVC) models utilizing a multiplicative structure a...

  8. From viscous to elastic sheets: Dynamics of smectic freely floating films

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stannarius, Ralf; Harth, Kirsten; May, Kathrin; Trittel, Torsten

    The dynamics of droplets and bubbles, particularly on microscopic scales, are of considerable importance in biological, environmental, and technical contexts. Soap bubbles, vesicles and components of biological cells are well known examples where the dynamic behavior is significantly influenced by the properties of thin membranes enclosed by fluids. Two-dimensional membrane motions couple to 3D shape transformations. Smectic liquid crystal mesogens form phases with internal molecular layer order. Free-standing films are easily prepared from this class of materials. They represent simple model systems for membrane dynamics and pattern formation in a quasi two-dimensional fluid. These films are usually spanned over a frame, and they can be inflated to bubbles on a support. Recently, closed microscopic shells of liquid-crystalline materials suspended in an outer fluid without contact to a solid support have been introduced and studied. With a special technique, we prepare millimetre to centimetre sized smectic bubbles in air (similar to soap bubbles). Their distinct feature is the fact that any change of surface area is coupled to a restructuring of the layers in the membrane. High-speed cameras are used to observe the shape transformations of freely floating bubbles from a distorted initial shape to a sphere. Bursting dynamics are recorded and compared to models. Most strikingly, an unpreceded cross-over from inviscid to viscous and elastic behaviour with increasing thickness of the membrane is found: Whereas thin bubbles behave almost like inviscid fluids, the relaxation dynamics slows down considerably for larger film thicknesses. Surface wrinkling and formation of extrusions are observed. We will present a characterization and an expalantion for the above phenomena.

  9. Inferring the physical connectivity of complex networks from their functional dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holm Liisa

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Biological networks, such as protein-protein interactions, metabolic, signalling, transcription-regulatory networks and neural synapses, are representations of large-scale dynamic systems. The relationship between the network structure and functions remains one of the central problems in current multidisciplinary research. Significant progress has been made toward understanding the implication of topological features for the network dynamics and functions, especially in biological networks. Given observations of a network system's behaviours or measurements of its functional dynamics, what can we conclude of the details of physical connectivity of the underlying structure? Results We modelled the network system by employing a scale-free network of coupled phase oscillators. Pairwise phase coherence (PPC was calculated for all the pairs of oscillators to present functional dynamics induced by the system. At the regime of global incoherence, we observed a Significant pairwise synchronization only between two nodes that are physically connected. Right after the onset of global synchronization, disconnected nodes begin to oscillate in a correlated fashion and the PPC of two nodes, either connected or disconnected, depends on their degrees. Based on the observation of PPCs, we built a weighted network of synchronization (WNS, an all-to-all functionally connected network where each link is weighted by the PPC of two oscillators at the ends of the link. In the regime of strong coupling, we observed a Significant similarity in the organization of WNSs induced by systems sharing the same substrate network but different configurations of initial phases and intrinsic frequencies of oscillators. We reconstruct physical network from the WNS by choosing the links whose weights are higher than a given threshold. We observed an optimal reconstruction just before the onset of global synchronization. Finally, we correlated the topology of the

  10. Dynamic Recrystallization of the Constituent γ Phase and Mechanical Properties of Ti-43Al-9V-0.2Y Alloy Sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Wang, Xiaopeng; Kong, Fantao; Chen, Yuyong

    2017-09-15

    A crack-free Ti-43Al-9V-0.2Y alloy sheet was successfully fabricated via hot-pack rolling at 1200 °C. After hot-rolling, the β/γ lamellar microstructure of the as-forged TiAl alloy was completely converted into a homogeneous duplex microstructure with an average γ grain size of 10.5 μm. The dynamic recrystallization (DRX) of the γ phase was systematically investigated. A recrystallization fraction of 62.5% was obtained for the γ phase in the TiAl alloy sheet, when a threshold value of 0.8° was applied to the distribution of grain orientation spread (GOS) values. The high strain rate and high stress associated with hot-rolling are conducive for discontinuous dynamic recrystallization (DDRX) and continuous dynamic recrystallization (CDRX), respectively. A certain high-angle boundary (HAGB: θ = 89° ± 3°), which is associated with DDRX, occurs in both the recrystallized and deformed γ grains. The twin boundaries play an important role in the DDRX of the γ phase. Additionally, the sub-structures and sub-boundaries originating from low-angle boundaries in the deformed grains also indicate that CDRX occurs. The mechanical properties of the alloy sheet were determined at both room and elevated temperatures. At 750 °C, the alloy sheet exhibited excellent elongation (53%), corresponding to a failure strength of 467 MPa.

  11. Inferring cetacean population densities from the absolute dynamic topography of the ocean in a hierarchical Bayesian framework.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario A Pardo

    Full Text Available We inferred the population densities of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus and short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis in the Northeast Pacific Ocean as functions of the water-column's physical structure by implementing hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. This approach allowed us to propagate the uncertainty of the field observations into the inference of species-habitat relationships and to generate spatially explicit population density predictions with reduced effects of sampling heterogeneity. Our hypothesis was that the large-scale spatial distributions of these two cetacean species respond primarily to ecological processes resulting from shoaling and outcropping of the pycnocline in regions of wind-forced upwelling and eddy-like circulation. Physically, these processes affect the thermodynamic balance of the water column, decreasing its volume and thus the height of the absolute dynamic topography (ADT. Biologically, they lead to elevated primary productivity and persistent aggregation of low-trophic-level prey. Unlike other remotely sensed variables, ADT provides information about the structure of the entire water column and it is also routinely measured at high spatial-temporal resolution by satellite altimeters with uniform global coverage. Our models provide spatially explicit population density predictions for both species, even in areas where the pycnocline shoals but does not outcrop (e.g. the Costa Rica Dome and the North Equatorial Countercurrent thermocline ridge. Interannual variations in distribution during El Niño anomalies suggest that the population density of both species decreases dramatically in the Equatorial Cold Tongue and the Costa Rica Dome, and that their distributions retract to particular areas that remain productive, such as the more oceanic waters in the central California Current System, the northern Gulf of California, the North Equatorial Countercurrent thermocline ridge, and the more

  12. Nitrogen dynamics in subtropical fringe and basin mangrove forests inferred from stable isotopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, Carla Roberta Gonçalves; Nardoto, Gabriela Bielefeld; Rochelle, André Luis Casarin; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Oliveira, Rafael Silva

    2017-03-01

    Mangroves exhibit low species richness compared to other tropical forests, but great structural and functional diversity. Aiming to contribute to a better understanding of the functioning of mangrove forests, we investigated nitrogen (N) dynamics in two physiographic types of mangroves (fringe and basin forests) in southeastern Brazil. Because fringe forests are under great influence of tidal flushing we hypothesized that these forests would exhibit higher N cycling rates in sediment and higher N losses to the atmosphere compared to basin forests. We quantified net N mineralization and nitrification rates in sediment and natural abundance of N stable isotopes (δ 15 N) in the sediment-plant-litter system. The fringe forest exhibited higher net N mineralization rates and δ 15 N in the sediment-plant-litter system, but net nitrification rates were similar to those of the basin forest. The results of the present study suggest that fringe forests exhibit higher N availability and N cycling in sediment compared to basin forests.

  13. Impact of wind on the dynamics of explosive volcanic plumes inferred from analog experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carazzo, G.; Girault, F.; Aubry, T. J.; Bouquerel, H.; Kaminski, E. C.

    2014-12-01

    Volcanic plumes produced by explosive eruptions commonly interact with atmospheric wind causing plume bending and a reduction of its maximum height. Strength of the wind field and intensity of the eruption control the behavior of the column in the atmosphere, which may form either a strong plume that is little affected by the presence of wind or a weak plume that is bent-over in the wind field. To better understand the transition between weak and strong plumes, we present a series of new laboratory reproducing a buoyant jet rising in a stratified environment with a uniform cross-flow. The experiments consist in injecting downward fresh water in a tank containing an aqueous NaCl solution with linear density stratification. The jet source is towed at a constant speed through the stationary fluid in order to produce a cross-flow. We show that depending on the environmental and source conditions, the buoyant jet may form either a strong, distorted, or weak plume. The transition from one dynamical regime to another is governed by the strength of the horizontal wind velocity compared to the vertical buoyant rise of the plume. A review of field data on historical eruptions confirms that the experimentally-determined transition curves capture the behavior of volcanic columns. We quantify the impact of wind on the maximum height reached by the column, and we propose a universal scaling relationship to link the mass discharge rate feeding an eruption to its observed maximum height in the presence of wind.

  14. From Birdsong to Human Speech Recognition: Bayesian Inference on a Hierarchy of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildiz, Izzet B.; von Kriegstein, Katharina; Kiebel, Stefan J.

    2013-01-01

    Our knowledge about the computational mechanisms underlying human learning and recognition of sound sequences, especially speech, is still very limited. One difficulty in deciphering the exact means by which humans recognize speech is that there are scarce experimental findings at a neuronal, microscopic level. Here, we show that our neuronal-computational understanding of speech learning and recognition may be vastly improved by looking at an animal model, i.e., the songbird, which faces the same challenge as humans: to learn and decode complex auditory input, in an online fashion. Motivated by striking similarities between the human and songbird neural recognition systems at the macroscopic level, we assumed that the human brain uses the same computational principles at a microscopic level and translated a birdsong model into a novel human sound learning and recognition model with an emphasis on speech. We show that the resulting Bayesian model with a hierarchy of nonlinear dynamical systems can learn speech samples such as words rapidly and recognize them robustly, even in adverse conditions. In addition, we show that recognition can be performed even when words are spoken by different speakers and with different accents—an everyday situation in which current state-of-the-art speech recognition models often fail. The model can also be used to qualitatively explain behavioral data on human speech learning and derive predictions for future experiments. PMID:24068902

  15. Inferring epidemiological dynamics of infectious diseases using Tajima's D statistic on nucleotide sequences of pathogens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiyeon Kim

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the basic reproduction number is essential to understand epidemic dynamics, and time series data of infected individuals are usually used for the estimation. However, such data are not always available. Methods to estimate the basic reproduction number using genealogy constructed from nucleotide sequences of pathogens have been proposed so far. Here, we propose a new method to estimate epidemiological parameters of outbreaks using the time series change of Tajima's D statistic on the nucleotide sequences of pathogens. To relate the time evolution of Tajima's D to the number of infected individuals, we constructed a parsimonious mathematical model describing both the transmission process of pathogens among hosts and the evolutionary process of the pathogens. As a case study we applied this method to the field data of nucleotide sequences of pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 viruses collected in Argentina. The Tajima's D-based method estimated basic reproduction number to be 1.55 with 95% highest posterior density (HPD between 1.31 and 2.05, and the date of epidemic peak to be 10th July with 95% HPD between 22nd June and 9th August. The estimated basic reproduction number was consistent with estimation by birth–death skyline plot and estimation using the time series of the number of infected individuals. These results suggested that Tajima's D statistic on nucleotide sequences of pathogens could be useful to estimate epidemiological parameters of outbreaks.

  16. From birdsong to human speech recognition: bayesian inference on a hierarchy of nonlinear dynamical systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izzet B Yildiz

    Full Text Available Our knowledge about the computational mechanisms underlying human learning and recognition of sound sequences, especially speech, is still very limited. One difficulty in deciphering the exact means by which humans recognize speech is that there are scarce experimental findings at a neuronal, microscopic level. Here, we show that our neuronal-computational understanding of speech learning and recognition may be vastly improved by looking at an animal model, i.e., the songbird, which faces the same challenge as humans: to learn and decode complex auditory input, in an online fashion. Motivated by striking similarities between the human and songbird neural recognition systems at the macroscopic level, we assumed that the human brain uses the same computational principles at a microscopic level and translated a birdsong model into a novel human sound learning and recognition model with an emphasis on speech. We show that the resulting Bayesian model with a hierarchy of nonlinear dynamical systems can learn speech samples such as words rapidly and recognize them robustly, even in adverse conditions. In addition, we show that recognition can be performed even when words are spoken by different speakers and with different accents-an everyday situation in which current state-of-the-art speech recognition models often fail. The model can also be used to qualitatively explain behavioral data on human speech learning and derive predictions for future experiments.

  17. Soil carbon dynamics inferred from carbon isotope compositions of soil organic matter and soil respiration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koarashi, Jun; Asano, Tomohiro; Iida, Takao; Moriizumi, Jun

    2004-01-01

    To better understand 14 C cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, 14 C abundances were evaluated for fractionated soil organic matter (SOM) and soil respiration in an urban forest. In 2001 soil profile, Δ 14 C values of litter and bulk SOM increased rapidly from litter surface (62.7 per mille) to uppermost mineral soil layer (244.9 per mille), and then decreased sharply to 6 cm depth of mineral soil (125.0 per mille). Carbon enriched in 14 C by atmospheric nuclear weapons testing had penetrated to at least 16 cm depth of mineral soil. The average Δ 14 C in atmospheric CO 2 was 58.8 per mille in August 2001, suggesting recent carbon input to the topmost litter layer. Although a similar depth distribution was observed for Δ 14 C values of residual SOM after acid hydrolysis, the Δ 14 C values were slightly lower than those in bulk SOM. This indicates input of 'bomb' C into this organic fraction and higher 14 C abundance in acid-soluble SOM. The most of CO 2 may be derived from the microbial decomposition of the acid-soluble, or labile, SOM. Therefore, the labile SOM may become most influential pool for soil carbon cycling. In contrast, carbon in base-insoluble SOM remained considerably low in 14 C abundance at all depths, suggesting no or little incorporation of 'bomb' C to this fraction. Values of Δ 14 C in soil respiration ranged from 91.9 to 146.4 per mille in August 2001, showing a significant contribution from decomposition of SOM fixed over past 2-40 years. These results indicate that the use of bulk SOM as a representative of soil carbon pool would lead to severe misunderstand of the soil C dynamics on decadal and shorter time scales. (author)

  18. Effect of Non-Condensable Gas on Cavity Dynamics and Sheet to Cloud Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makiharju, Simo; Ganesh, Harish; Ceccio, Steven

    2014-11-01

    Partial cavitation occurs in numerous industrial and naval applications. Cavities on lifting surfaces, in cryogenic rocket motors or in fuel injectors can damage equipment and in general be detrimental to the system performance, especially as partial cavities can undergo auto-oscillation causing large pressure pulsations, unsteady loading of machinery and generate significant noise. In the current experiments incipient, intermittent cloud shedding and fully shedding cavities forming in the separated flow region downstream of a wedge were investigated. The Reynolds number based on hydraulic diameter was of the order of one million. Gas was injected directly into the cavitation region downstream of the wedge's apex or into the recirculating region such that with the same amount of injected gas less ended up in the shear layer. The cavity dynamics were studied with and without gas injection. The hypothesis to be tested were that i) relatively miniscule amounts of gas introduced into the shear layer at the cavity interface can reduce vapor production and ii) gas introduced into the separated region can dampen the auto oscillations. The authors also examined whether the presence of gas can switch the shedding mechanism from one dominated by condensation shock to one dominantly by re-entrant jet. The work was supported by ONR Grant Number N00014-11-1-0449.

  19. Absorption of calcium ions on oxidized graphene sheets and study its dynamic behavior by kinetic and isothermal models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Fathy

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Sorption of calcium ion from the hard underground water using novel oxidized graphene (GO sheets was studied in this paper. Physicochemical properties and microstructure of graphene sheets were investigated using Raman spectrometer, thermogravimetry analyzer, transmission electron microscope, scanning electron microscope. The kinetics adsorption of calcium on graphene oxide sheets was examined using Lagergren first and second orders. The results show that the Lagergren second-order was the best-fit model that suggests the conception process of calcium ion adsorption on the Go sheets. For isothermal studies, the Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm models were used at temperatures ranging between 283 and 313 K. Thermodynamic parameters resolved at 283, 298 and 313 K indicating that the GO adsorption was exothermic spontaneous process. Finally, the graphene sheets show high partiality toward calcium particles and it will be useful in softening and treatment of hard water.

  20. BeTrust: A Dynamic Trust Model Based on Bayesian Inference and Tsallis Entropy for Medical Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Gao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid development and application of medical sensor networks, the security has become a big challenge to be resolved. Trust mechanism as a method of “soft security” has been proposed to guarantee the network security. Trust models to compute the trustworthiness of single node and each path are constructed, respectively, in this paper. For the trust relationship between nodes, trust value in every interval is quantified based on Bayesian inference. A node estimates the parameters of prior distribution by using the collected recommendation information and obtains the posterior distribution combined with direct interactions. Further, the weights of trust values are allocated through using the ordered weighted vector twice and overall trust degree is represented. With the associated properties of Tsallis entropy, the definition of path Tsallis entropy is put forward, which can comprehensively measure the uncertainty of each path. Then a method to calculate the credibility of each path is derived. The simulation results show that the proposed models can correctly reflect the dynamic of node behavior, quickly identify the malicious attacks, and effectively avoid such path containing low-trust nodes so as to enhance the robustness.

  1. Inferring changes in water cycle dynamics of intensively managed landscapes via the theory of time-variant travel time distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danesh-Yazdi, Mohammad; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Karwan, Diana L.; Botter, Gianluca

    2016-10-01

    Climatic trends and anthropogenic changes in land cover and land use are impacting the hydrology and water quality of streams at the field, watershed, and regional scales in complex ways. In poorly drained agricultural landscapes, subsurface drainage systems have been successful in increasing crop productivity by removing excess soil moisture. However, their hydroecological consequences are still debated in view of the observed increased concentrations of nitrate, phosphorus, and pesticides in many streams, as well as altered runoff volumes and timing. In this study, we employ the recently developed theory of time-variant travel time distributions within the StorAge Selection function framework to quantify changes in water cycle dynamics resulting from the combined climate and land use changes. Our results from analysis of a subbasin in the Minnesota River Basin indicate a significant decrease in the mean travel time of water in the shallow subsurface layer during the growing season under current conditions compared to the pre-1970s conditions. We also find highly damped year-to-year fluctuations in the mean travel time, which we attribute to the "homogenization" of the hydrologic response due to artificial drainage. The dependence of the mean travel time on the spatial heterogeneity of some soil characteristics as well as on the basin scale is further explored via numerical experiments. Simulations indicate that the mean travel time is independent of scale for spatial scales larger than approximately 200 km2, suggesting that hydrologic data from larger basins may be used to infer the average of smaller-scale-driven changes in water cycle dynamics.

  2. Finite element analysis of AISI 304 steel sheets subjected to dynamic tension: The effects of martensitic transformation and plastic strain development on flow localization

    OpenAIRE

    Rodríguez Martínez, José Antonio; Rittel, D.; Zaera Polo, Ramón Eulalio; Osovski, S.

    2013-01-01

    The paper presents a finite element study of the dynamic necking formation and energy absorption in AISI 304 steel sheets. The analysis emphasizes the effects of strain induced martensitic transformation (SIMT) and plastic strain development on flow localization and sample ductility. The material behavior is described by a constitutive model proposed by the authors which includes the SIMT at high strain rates. The process of martensitic transformation is alternatively switched on and off in t...

  3. OSCILLATION OF CURRENT SHEETS IN THE WAKE OF A FLUX ROPE ERUPTION OBSERVED BY THE SOLAR DYNAMICS OBSERVATORY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, L. P.; Zhang, J.; Su, J. T. [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100012 Beijing (China); Liu, Y. [Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875 Beijing (China)

    2016-10-01

    An erupting flux rope (FR) draws its overlying coronal loops upward, causing a coronal mass ejection. The legs of the overlying loops with opposite polarities are driven together. Current sheets (CSs) form, and magnetic reconnection, producing underneath flare arcades, occurs in the CSs. Employing Solar Dynamic Observatory /Atmospheric Imaging Assembly images, we study a FR eruption on 2015 April 23, and for the first time report the oscillation of CSs underneath the erupting FR. The FR is observed in all AIA extreme-ultraviolet passbands, indicating that it has both hot and warm components. Several bright CSs, connecting the erupting FR and the underneath flare arcades, are observed only in hotter AIA channels, e.g., 131 and 94 Å. Using the differential emission measure (EM) analysis, we find that both the temperature and the EM of CSs temporally increase rapidly, reach the peaks, and then decrease slowly. A significant delay between the increases of the temperature and the EM is detected. The temperature, EM, and density spatially decrease along the CSs with increasing heights. For a well-developed CS, the temperature (EM) decreases from 9.6 MK (8 × 10{sup 28} cm{sup −5}) to 6.2 MK (5 × 10{sup 27} cm{sup −5}) in 52 Mm. Along the CSs, dark supra-arcade downflows (SADs) are observed, and one of them separates a CS into two. While flowing sunward, the speeds of the SADs decrease. The CSs oscillate with a period of 11 minutes, an amplitude of 1.5 Mm, and a phase speed of 200 ± 30 km s{sup −1}. One of the oscillations lasts for more than 2 hr. These oscillations represent fast-propagating magnetoacoustic kink waves.

  4. Reconstructing the post-LGM decay of the Eurasian Ice Sheets with Ice Sheet Models; data-model comparison and focus on the Storfjorden (Svalbard) ice stream dynamics history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrini, Michele; Kirchner, Nina; Colleoni, Florence; Camerlenghi, Angelo; Rebesco, Michele; Lucchi, Renata G.; Forte, Emanuele; Colucci, Renato R.

    2017-04-01

    The challenge of reconstructing palaeo-ice sheets past growth and decay represent a critical task to better understand mechanisms of present and future global climate change. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the subsequent deglaciation until Pre-Industrial time (PI) represent an excellent testing ground for numerical Ice Sheet Models (ISMs), due to the abundant data available that can be used in an ISM as boundary conditions, forcings or constraints to test the ISMs results. In our study, we simulate with ISMs the post-LGM decay of the Eurasian Ice Sheets, with a focus on the marine-based Svalbard-Barents Sea-Kara Sea Ice Sheet. In particular, we aim to reconstruct the Storfjorden ice stream dynamics history by comparing the model results with the marine geological data (MSGLs, GZWs, sediment cores analysis) available from the area, e.g., Pedrosa et al. 2011, Rebesco et al. 2011, 2013, Lucchi et al. 2013. Two hybrid SIA/SSA ISMs are employed, GRISLI, Ritz et al. 2001, and PSU, Pollard&DeConto 2012. These models differ mainly in the complexity with which grounding line migration is treated. Climate forcing is interpolated by means of climate indexes between LGM and PI climate. Regional climate indexes are constructed based on the non-accelerated deglaciation transient experiment carried out with CCSM3, Liu et al. 2009. Indexes representative of the climate evolution over Siberia, Svalbard and Scandinavia are employed. The impact of such refined representation as opposed to the common use of the NGRIP δ18O index for transient experiments is analysed. In this study, the ice-ocean interaction is crucial to reconstruct the Storfjorden ice stream dynamics history. To investigate the sensitivity of the ice shelf/stream retreat to ocean temperature, we allow for a space-time variation of basal melting under the ice shelves by testing two-equations implementations based on Martin et al. 2011 forced with simulated ocean temperature and salinity from the TraCE-21ka coupled

  5. Inferring internal properties of Earth's core dynamics and their evolution from surface observations and a numerical geodynamo model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Aubert

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decades, direct three-dimensional numerical modelling has been successfully used to reproduce the main features of the geodynamo. Here we report on efforts to solve the associated inverse problem, aiming at inferring the underlying properties of the system from the sole knowledge of surface observations and the first principle dynamical equations describing the convective dynamo. To this end we rely on twin experiments. A reference model time sequence is first produced and used to generate synthetic data, restricted here to the large-scale component of the magnetic field and its rate of change at the outer boundary. Starting from a different initial condition, a second sequence is next run and attempts are made to recover the internal magnetic, velocity and buoyancy anomaly fields from the sparse surficial data. In order to reduce the vast underdetermination of this problem, we use stochastic inversion, a linear estimation method determining the most likely internal state compatible with the observations and some prior knowledge, and we also implement a sequential evolution algorithm in order to invert time-dependent surface observations. The prior is the multivariate statistics of the numerical model, which are directly computed from a large number of snapshots stored during a preliminary direct run. The statistics display strong correlation between different harmonic degrees of the surface observations and internal fields, provided they share the same harmonic order, a natural consequence of the linear coupling of the governing dynamical equations and of the leading influence of the Coriolis force. Synthetic experiments performed with a weakly nonlinear model yield an excellent quantitative retrieval of the internal structure. In contrast, the use of a strongly nonlinear (and more realistic model results in less accurate static estimations, which in turn fail to constrain the unobserved small scales in the time integration of the

  6. Glacial transport and local ice dynamics under the Keewatin Ice Divide of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, central Nunavut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulet, C.; Roy, M.; McMartin, I.

    2009-12-01

    Goulet, C.; Roy, M., Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, and GEOTOP, University of Quebec in Montreal, QC, H3C 3P8; McMartin, I., Geological Survey of Canada, 601 Booth Street, Ottawa, ON, K1A OE8 Recent paleogeographic reconstructions indicate that the Keewatin Ice Divide (KID) of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) was highly dynamic throughout the last glacial cycle. Extensive field measurements of cross-cutting ice-flow erosional features (striations, grooves) on multi-faceted bedrock outcrops, as well as mapping of streamlined landforms indicate significant displacements (up to 500 km) of this ice flow center during the last glacial cycle. These episodes of ice-flow reorganization likely affected the patterns of glacial transport, but the extent of the reworking of former glacial dispersal trains is often unconstrained in certain regions. Here we report ice-flow directional data and associated glacial-dynamic considerations for an area located 100 km north of Baker Lake, central Nunavut. This area lies underneath the zone of migration of the KID (essentially north of its final position), thus representing a key area for understanding the dynamics of this sector of the LIS. Measurements of ice-flow indicators indicate at least 7 ice-flow directions, going from N, NNW, NW to WNW, NNE, W, SE, and SW to WSW. A relative chronology was established from multiple intersecting striations and geometrical relations between multi-faceted outcrops, starting from older phases to younger ones with W, NW, NNW, and N. Surficial mapping using air-photo and satellite images indicate that this region is characterized by zones of fast and slower ice velocity. The presence in the centre of the study area of a drift-free positive relief formed by resistant NE-SW-oriented Proterozoic quartzite appears to have played an important role on the local ice dynamics by slowing down the velocity of the ice. Local example of varying ice velocity systems is expressed by a glacially

  7. Global ice sheet modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L. [Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME (United States). Institute for Quaternary Studies

    1994-05-01

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed.

  8. Global ice sheet modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L.

    1994-05-01

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed

  9. Quaternary and Tertiary microfossils from beneath Ice Stream B: Evidence for a dynamic West Antarctic Ice Sheet history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, Reed P.

    1991-10-01

    Some glaciologists have suggested that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is grounded well below sea level, may be susceptible to rapid grounding-line retreat and disintegration. However, until now, geologic evidence of previous ice sheet "collapses" has been lacking. Sediments that have recently been collected from beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet at Ice Stream B contain direct evidence of ice-free conditions in the West Antarctic interior during certain Cenozoic intervals, both prior to and subsequent to the development of grounded ice sheets in West Antarctica. The sediments contain rare but diverse microfossils that represent a wide variety of biostratigraphic ages and depositional environments. Microfossils present include relatively common marine and non-marine diatoms and sponge spicules, plus rare foraminifera, nannofossils, radiolarians, silicoflagellates, chrysophyte cysts and palynomorphs. Clasts of Neogene freshwater diatomite demonstrate the former presence of large lake systems in West Antarctica, possibly as part the Cenozoic West Antarctica rift system. Age-diagnostic marine fossils in the sediment include Late Paleogene calcareous nannofossils and planktonic foraminifera, Miocene marine planktonic diatoms and, significantly, late Pleistocene marine diatoms. Relatively common late Miocene diatoms probably reflect marine deposition prior to initiation of a dominantly glacial phase in West Antarctica. It is likely that Pliocene and early Pleistocene diatoms were deposited in the West Antarctic interior during certain warm interglacials, but these have been eroded and transported toward the continental shelf edge during repeated ice sheet expansions. The late Pleistocene diatoms from Upstream B were deposited in the West Antarctic interior basins during a marine phase, subsequent to an ice sheet collapse, during at least one late Pleistocene interglacial. This discovery provides an indication of the complex history of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

  10. A late glacial record of ice-sheet dynamics and melt supply recovered in the sediments of IODP Expedition 347 in the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passchier, Sandra; Jensen, Jørn Bo; Kenzler, Michael; Johnson, Sean; Andrén, Thomas; Barker Jørgensen, Bo

    2015-04-01

    Modern observations of increased surface ablation, meltwater routing to the bed, and increases in glacial speeds point to feedbacks between ice-sheet dynamics, melt supply, and subglacial discharge. Paleorecords have the potential to explore the decadal to centennial variability of these systems, but until recently such records were short and discontinuous in ice-proximal settings and underutilized for this specific purpose. The Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 347 in the Baltic Sea recovered annually laminated sediments that document the dynamics of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet. Hydraulic piston cores recovered from Sites M0060, M0063, M0064, and M0065 allow us to reconstruct a nearly complete record of ca. 6000 years in ice retreat history at annual to decadal resolution between ca. 17 and 11ka. The late glacial successions of these four IODP drillsites comprise of a till or proglacial fluvioglacial sediment overlain by variable thicknesses of well-laminated deglacial successions within several high-recovery holes. As the Scandinavian Ice Sheet retreated from the western Baltic Sea, and to the North, the ice-sheet's grounding line migrated across the four sites and deposited overlapping sections of high-resolution ice-proximal to ice-distal successions. Laser particle size results from Sites M0060 and M0063, and inspection of line-scan images, show shifts in sedimentary facies and lithologies that were not recognized during initial visual core description. For example, at Site M0060 in the Kattegat, ice-rafting fluxes in silty clays decrease upward and are negligible in the overlying varved succession. These characteristics are interpreted as ice retreat within a calving bay environment from ca. 17ka onward, followed by distal glacial marine deposition from sediment plumes governed by meltwater discharge. Moreover, at Site M0063 in the Baltic Sea, laser particle size distributions record an abrupt shift from interlaminated clayey silt to laminated clay

  11. Juvenile magma recognition and eruptive dynamics inferred from the analysis of ash time series: The 2015 reawakening of Cotopaxi volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaunt, H. Elizabeth; Bernard, Benjamin; Hidalgo, Silvana; Proano, Antonio; Wright, Heather M.; Mothes, Patricia; Criollo, Evelyn; Kueppers, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future activity and performing hazard assessments during the reactivation of volcanoes remain great challenges for the volcanological community. On August 14, 2015 Cotopaxi volcano erupted for the first time in 73 years after approximately four months of precursory activity, which included an increase in seismicity, gas emissions, and minor ground deformation. Here we discuss the use of near real-time petrological monitoring of ash samples as a complementary aid to geophysical monitoring, in order to infer eruption dynamics and evaluate possible future eruptive activity at Cotopaxi. Twenty ash samples were collected between August 14 and November 23, 2015 from a monitoring site on the west flank of the volcano. These samples contain a range of grain types that we classified as: hydrothermal/altered, lithic, juvenile, and free crystals. The relative proportions of theses grains evolved as the eruption progressed, with increasing amounts of juvenile material and a decrease in hydrothermally altered material. In samples from the initial explosion, juvenile grains are glassy, microlite-poor and contain hydrothermal minerals (opal and alunite). The rising magma came in contact with the hydrothermal system under confinement, causing hydro-magmatic explosions that cleared the upper part of the plumbing system. Subsequently, the magmatic column produced a thermal aureole in the conduit and dried out the hydrothermal system, allowing for dry eruptions. Magma ascent rates were low enough to allow for efficient outgassing and microlite growth. Constant supply of magma from below caused quasi-continuous disruption of the uppermost magma volume through a combination of shear-deformation and gas expansion. The combination of increasing crystallinity of juvenile grains, and high measured SO2 flux indicate decreasing integrated magma ascent rates and clearing of the hydrothermal system along transport pathways in a system open to gas loss. The near real

  12. Estimates of water source contributions in a dynamic urban water supply system inferred via a Bayesian stable isotope mixing model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jameel, M. Y.; Brewer, S.; Fiorella, R.; Tipple, B. J.; Bowen, G. J.; Terry, S.

    2017-12-01

    Public water supply systems (PWSS) are complex distribution systems and critical infrastructure, making them vulnerable to physical disruption and contamination. Exploring the susceptibility of PWSS to such perturbations requires detailed knowledge of the supply system structure and operation. Although the physical structure of supply systems (i.e., pipeline connection) is usually well documented for developed cities, the actual flow patterns of water in these systems are typically unknown or estimated based on hydrodynamic models with limited observational validation. Here, we present a novel method for mapping the flow structure of water in a large, complex PWSS, building upon recent work highlighting the potential of stable isotopes of water (SIW) to document water management practices within complex PWSS. We sampled a major water distribution system of the Salt Lake Valley, Utah, measuring SIW of water sources, treatment facilities, and numerous sites within in the supply system. We then developed a hierarchical Bayesian (HB) isotope mixing model to quantify the proportion of water supplied by different sources at sites within the supply system. Known production volumes and spatial distance effects were used to define the prior probabilities for each source; however, we did not include other physical information about the supply system. Our results were in general agreement with those obtained by hydrodynamic models and provide quantitative estimates of contributions of different water sources to a given site along with robust estimates of uncertainty. Secondary properties of the supply system, such as regions of "static" and "dynamic" source (e.g., regions supplied dominantly by one source vs. those experiencing active mixing between multiple sources), can be inferred from the results. The isotope-based HB isotope mixing model offers a new investigative technique for analyzing PWSS and documenting aspects of supply system structure and operation that are

  13. The Impact of Uncertainties in Ice Sheet Dynamics on Sea-Level Allowances at Tide Gauge Locations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aimée B. A. Slangen

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Sea level is projected to rise in the coming centuries as a result of a changing climate. One of the major uncertainties is the projected contribution of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to sea-level rise (SLR. Here, we study the impact of different shapes of uncertainty distributions of the ice sheets on so-called sea-level allowances. An allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be elevated to keep the same frequency and likelihood of sea-level extremes under a projected amount of mean SLR. Allowances are always larger than the projected SLR. Their magnitude depends on several factors, such as projection uncertainty and the typical variability of the extreme events at a location. Our results show that allowances increase significantly for ice sheet dynamics’ uncertainty distributions that are more skewed (more than twice, compared to Gaussian uncertainty distributions, due to the increased probability of a much larger ice sheet contribution to SLR. The allowances are largest in regions where a relatively small observed variability in the extremes is paired with relatively large magnitude and/or large uncertainty in the projected SLR, typically around the equator. Under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway projections of SLR, the likelihood of extremes increases more than a factor 10 4 at more than 50–87% of the tide gauges.

  14. Ice flow dynamics and surface meltwater flux at a land-terminating sector of the Greenland ice sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, Andrew A. W.; Hubbard, Alun; Joughin, Ian

    2013-01-01

    We present satellite-derived velocity patterns for the two contrasting melt seasons of 2009-10 across Russell Glacier catchment, a western, land-terminating sector of the Greenland ice sheet which encompasses the K(angerlussuaq)-transect. Results highlight great spatial heterogeneity in flow, ind...

  15. Modelling the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and neighbouring ice caps : A dynamical and statistical downscaling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noël, B.P.Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/370612345

    2018-01-01

    The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is the world’s second largest ice mass, storing about one tenth of the Earth’s freshwater. If totally melted, global sea level would rise by 7.4 m, affecting low-lying regions worldwide. Since the mid-1990s, increased atmospheric and oceanic temperatures have

  16. Radiostratigraphy and age structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGregor, Joseph A; Fahnestock, Mark A; Catania, Ginny A; Paden, John D; Prasad Gogineni, S; Young, S Keith; Rybarski, Susan C; Mabrey, Alexandria N; Wagman, Benjamin M; Morlighem, Mathieu

    2015-02-01

    Several decades of ice-penetrating radar surveys of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have observed numerous widespread internal reflections. Analysis of this radiostratigraphy has produced valuable insights into ice sheet dynamics and motivates additional mapping of these reflections. Here we present a comprehensive deep radiostratigraphy of the Greenland Ice Sheet from airborne deep ice-penetrating radar data collected over Greenland by The University of Kansas between 1993 and 2013. To map this radiostratigraphy efficiently, we developed new techniques for predicting reflection slope from the phase recorded by coherent radars. When integrated along track, these slope fields predict the radiostratigraphy and simplify semiautomatic reflection tracing. Core-intersecting reflections were dated using synchronized depth-age relationships for six deep ice cores. Additional reflections were dated by matching reflections between transects and by extending reflection-inferred depth-age relationships using the local effective vertical strain rate. The oldest reflections, dating to the Eemian period, are found mostly in the northern part of the ice sheet. Within the onset regions of several fast-flowing outlet glaciers and ice streams, reflections typically do not conform to the bed topography. Disrupted radiostratigraphy is also observed in a region north of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream that is not presently flowing rapidly. Dated reflections are used to generate a gridded age volume for most of the ice sheet and also to determine the depths of key climate transitions that were not observed directly. This radiostratigraphy provides a new constraint on the dynamics and history of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Phase information predicts reflection slope and simplifies reflection tracingReflections can be dated away from ice cores using a simple ice flow modelRadiostratigraphy is often disrupted near the onset of fast ice flow.

  17. Phased occupation and retreat of the last British-Irish Ice Sheet in the southern North Sea; geomorphic and seismostratigraphic evidence of a dynamic ice lobe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dove, Dayton; Evans, David J. A.; Lee, Jonathan R.; Roberts, David H.; Tappin, David R.; Mellett, Claire L.; Long, David; Callard, S. Louise

    2017-05-01

    Along the terrestrial margin of the southern North Sea, previous studies of the MIS 2 glaciation impacting eastern Britain have played a significant role in the development of principles relating to ice sheet dynamics (e.g. deformable beds), and the practice of reconstructing the style, timing, and spatial configuration of palaeo-ice sheets. These detailed terrestrially-based findings have however relied on observations made from only the outer edges of the former ice mass, as the North Sea Lobe (NSL) of the British-Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) occupied an area that is now almost entirely submarine (c.21-15 ka). Compounded by the fact that marine-acquired data have been primarily of insufficient quality and density, the configuration and behaviour of the last BIIS in the southern North Sea remains surprisingly poorly constrained. This paper presents analysis of a new, integrated set of extensive seabed geomorphological and seismo-stratigraphic observations that both advances the principles developed previously onshore (e.g. multiple advance and retreat cycles), and provides a more detailed and accurate reconstruction of the BIIS at its southern-most extent in the North Sea. A new bathymetry compilation of the region reveals a series of broad sedimentary wedges and associated moraines that represent several terminal positions of the NSL. These former still-stand ice margins (1-4) are also found to relate to newly-identified architectural patterns (shallow stacked sedimentary wedges) in the region's seismic stratigraphy (previously mapped singularly as the Bolders Bank Formation). With ground-truthing constraint provided by sediment cores, these wedges are interpreted as sub-marginal till wedges, formed by complex subglacial accretionary processes that resulted in till thickening towards the former ice-sheet margins. The newly sub-divided shallow seismic stratigraphy (at least five units) also provides an indication of the relative event chronology of the NSL. While there

  18. Distributional Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroese, A.H.; van der Meulen, E.A.; Poortema, Klaas; Schaafsma, W.

    1995-01-01

    The making of statistical inferences in distributional form is conceptionally complicated because the epistemic 'probabilities' assigned are mixtures of fact and fiction. In this respect they are essentially different from 'physical' or 'frequency-theoretic' probabilities. The distributional form is

  19. The last British-Irish Ice Sheet: A data-rich environment for ice sheet modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ely, Jeremy; Clark, Chris; Hindmarsh, Richard; Bradley, Sarah

    2017-04-01

    In order to simulate the future dynamics of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, robust numerical models validated by observations of past ice sheet behaviour are required. The extent and dynamics of contemporary ice sheets have been observed at a decadal scale. But a much longer record of ice sheet behaviour (10 ka) can be collated by studying the evidence left behind by palaeo-ice sheets. Extensive geomorphological and geochronological evidence for the past behaviour of the last British-Irish Ice Sheet has been gathered through over 150 years of research and BRITICE-CHRONO, a recent consortium project. This large volume of empirical evidence makes the last British-Irish Ice Sheet one of the best constrained palaeo-ice sheets in the world, and a data-rich environment for ice sheet modelling experiments. Yet, integrating this data and its associated uncertainty and abstraction into ice sheet modelling experiments remains challenging. Here we summarise the available geomorphological and geochronological data and discuss how this will be integrated into ice sheet modelling experiments. Several packages of data, each with its own associated level of interpretation (ranging from raw data to empirically reconstructed ice sheet margins), will be made available to the ice-sheet modelling community. Furthermore, we demonstrate our approach to simulating the empirically reconstructed behaviour of the British-Irish Ice Sheet through a series of ice sheet modelling experiments which account for relative sea level change, and uncertainty in empirically reconstructed ice sheet extent.

  20. Using likelihood-free inference to compare evolutionary dynamics of the protein networks of H. pylori and P. falciparum.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Ratmann

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Gene duplication with subsequent interaction divergence is one of the primary driving forces in the evolution of genetic systems. Yet little is known about the precise mechanisms and the role of duplication divergence in the evolution of protein networks from the prokaryote and eukaryote domains. We developed a novel, model-based approach for Bayesian inference on biological network data that centres on approximate Bayesian computation, or likelihood-free inference. Instead of computing the intractable likelihood of the protein network topology, our method summarizes key features of the network and, based on these, uses a MCMC algorithm to approximate the posterior distribution of the model parameters. This allowed us to reliably fit a flexible mixture model that captures hallmarks of evolution by gene duplication and subfunctionalization to protein interaction network data of Helicobacter pylori and Plasmodium falciparum. The 80% credible intervals for the duplication-divergence component are [0.64, 0.98] for H. pylori and [0.87, 0.99] for P. falciparum. The remaining parameter estimates are not inconsistent with sequence data. An extensive sensitivity analysis showed that incompleteness of PIN data does not largely affect the analysis of models of protein network evolution, and that the degree sequence alone barely captures the evolutionary footprints of protein networks relative to other statistics. Our likelihood-free inference approach enables a fully Bayesian analysis of a complex and highly stochastic system that is otherwise intractable at present. Modelling the evolutionary history of PIN data, it transpires that only the simultaneous analysis of several global aspects of protein networks enables credible and consistent inference to be made from available datasets. Our results indicate that gene duplication has played a larger part in the network evolution of the eukaryote than in the prokaryote, and suggests that single gene

  1. Luminescence dating of paleolake deltas and glacial deposits in Garwood Valley, Antarctica: Implications for climate, Ross ice sheet dynamics, and paleolake duration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Joseph S.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Fountain, Andrew G.; O'Connor, Jim E.

    2017-01-01

    The formation of perched deltas and other lacustrine deposits in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is widely considered to be evidence of valley-filling lakes dammed by the grounded Ross Sea ice sheet during the local Last Glacial Maximum, with lake drainage interpreted as a record of grounding line retreat. We used luminescence dating to determine the age of paleolake deltas and glacial tills in Garwood Valley, a coastal dry valley that opens to the Ross Sea. Luminescence ages are stratigraphically consistent with radiocarbon results from algal mats within the same delta deposits but suggest radiocarbon dates from lacustrine carbonates may overestimate deposit ages by thousands of years. Results suggest that late Holocene delta deposition into paleolake Howard in Garwood Valley persisted until ca. 3.5 ka. This is significantly younger than the date when grounded ice is thought to have retreated from the Ross Sea. Our evidence suggests that the local, stranded ice-cored till topography in Garwood Valley, rather than regional ice-sheet dynamics, may have controlled lake levels for some McMurdo Dry Valleys paleolakes. Age control from the supraglacial Ross Sea drift suggests grounding and up-valley advance of the Ross Sea ice sheet into Garwood valley during marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 4 (71–78 ka) and the local Last Glacial Maximum (9–10 ka). This work demonstrates the power of combining luminescence dating with existing radiocarbon data sets to improve understanding of the relationships among paleolake formation, glacial position, and stream discharge in response to climate change.

  2. Dynamic Ca2+ imaging with a simplified lattice light-sheet microscope: A sideways view of subcellular Ca2+ puffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellefsen, Kyle L; Parker, Ian

    2018-05-01

    We describe the construction of a simplified, inexpensive lattice light-sheet microscope, and illustrate its use for imaging subcellular Ca 2+ puffs evoked by photoreleased i-IP 3 in cultured SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells loaded with the Ca 2+ probe Cal520. The microscope provides sub-micron spatial resolution and enables recording of local Ca 2+ transients in single-slice mode with a signal-to-noise ratio and temporal resolution (2ms) at least as good as confocal or total internal reflection microscopy. Signals arising from openings of individual IP 3 R channels are clearly resolved, as are stepwise changes in fluorescence reflecting openings and closings of individual channels during puffs. Moreover, by stepping the specimen through the light-sheet, the entire volume of a cell can be scanned within a few hundred ms. The ability to directly visualize a sideways (axial) section through cells directly reveals that IP 3 -evoked Ca 2+ puffs originate at sites in very close (≤a few hundred nm) to the plasma membrane, suggesting they play a specific role in signaling to the membrane. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Irish Ice Sheet dynamics during deglaciation of the central Irish Midlands: Evidence of ice streaming and surging from airborne LiDAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaney, Catherine A.; McCarron, Stephen; Davis, Stephen

    2018-04-01

    High resolution digital terrain models (DTMs) generated from airborne LiDAR data and supplemented by field evidence are used to map glacial landform assemblages dating from the last glaciation (Midlandian glaciation; OI stages 2-3) in the central Irish Midlands. The DTMs reveal previously unrecognised low-amplitude landforms, including crevasse-squeeze ridges and mega-scale glacial lineations overprinted by conduit fills leading to ice-marginal subaqueous deposits. We interpret this landform assemblage as evidence for surging behaviour during ice recession. The data indicate that two separate phases of accelerated ice flow were followed by ice sheet stagnation during overall deglaciation. The second surge event was followed by a subglacial outburst flood, forming an intricate esker and crevasse-fill network. The data provide the first clear evidence that ice flow direction was eastward along the eastern watershed of the Shannon River basin, at odds with previous models, and raise the possibility that an ice stream existed in this area. Our work demonstrates the potential for airborne LiDAR surveys to produce detailed paleoglaciological reconstructions and to enhance our understanding of complex palaeo-ice sheet dynamics.

  4. Exploring the influence of carbon nanoparticles on the formation of β-sheet-rich oligomers of IAPP₂₂₋₂₈ peptide by molecular dynamics simulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjing Guo

    Full Text Available Recent advances in nanotechnologies have led to wide use of nanomaterials in biomedical field. However, nanoparticles are found to interfere with protein misfolding and aggregation associated with many human diseases. It is still a controversial issue whether nanoparticles inhibit or promote protein aggregation. In this study, we used molecular dynamics simulations to explore the effects of three kinds of carbon nanomaterials including graphene, carbon nanotube and C₆₀ on the aggregation behavior of islet amyloid polypeptide fragment 22-28 (IAPP₂₂₋₂₈. The diverse behaviors of IAPP₂₂₋₂₈ peptides on the surfaces of carbon nanomaterials were studied. The results suggest these nanomaterials can prevent β-sheet formation in differing degrees and further affect the aggregation of IAPP₂₂₋₂₈. The π-π stacking and hydrophobic interactions are different in the interactions between peptides and different nanoparticles. The subtle differences in the interaction are due to the difference in surface curvature and area. The results demonstrate the adsorption interaction has competitive advantages over the interactions between peptides. Therefore, the fibrillation of IAPP₂₂₋₂₈ may be inhibited at its early stage by graphene or SWCNT. Our study can not only enhance the understanding about potential effects of nanomaterials to amyloid formation, but also provide valuable information to develop potential β-sheet formation inhibitors against type II diabetes.

  5. Coupled ice sheet - climate simulations of the last glacial inception and last glacial maximum with a model of intermediate complexity that includes a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiquet, Aurélien; Roche, Didier M.

    2017-04-01

    Comprehensive fully coupled ice sheet - climate models allowing for multi-millenia transient simulations are becoming available. They represent powerful tools to investigate ice sheet - climate interactions during the repeated retreats and advances of continental ice sheets of the Pleistocene. However, in such models, most of the time, the spatial resolution of the ice sheet model is one order of magnitude lower than the one of the atmospheric model. As such, orography-induced precipitation is only poorly represented. In this work, we briefly present the most recent improvements of the ice sheet - climate coupling within the model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM. On the one hand, from the native atmospheric resolution (T21), we have included a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture at the ice sheet model resolution (40 km x 40 km). This downscaling accounts for feedbacks of sub-grid precipitation on large scale energy and water budgets. From the sub-grid atmospheric variables, we compute an ice sheet surface mass balance required by the ice sheet model. On the other hand, we also explicitly use oceanic temperatures to compute sub-shelf melting at a given depth. Based on palaeo evidences for rate of change of eustatic sea level, we discuss the capability of our new model to correctly simulate the last glacial inception ( 116 kaBP) and the ice volume of the last glacial maximum ( 21 kaBP). We show that the model performs well in certain areas (e.g. Canadian archipelago) but some model biases are consistent over time periods (e.g. Kara-Barents sector). We explore various model sensitivities (e.g. initial state, vegetation, albedo) and we discuss the importance of the downscaling of precipitation for ice nucleation over elevated area and for the surface mass balance of larger ice sheets.

  6. Dynamic Modeling of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell System using Empirical Data and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2013-01-01

    an empirical approach. Fin efficiency models for the cooling effect of the air are also developed using empirical methods. A fuel cell model is also implemented based on a standard model which is adapted to fit the measured performance of the H3-350 module. All the individual parts of the model are verified...... hydrogen, which is difficult and energy consuming to store and transport. The models include thermal equilibrium models of the individual components of the system. Models of the heating and cooling of the gas flows between components are also modeled and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System models...... of the reforming process are implemented. Models of the cooling flow of the blowers for the fuel cell and the burner which supplies process heat for the reformer are made. The two blowers have a common exhaust, which means that the two blowers influence each other’s output. The models take this into account using...

  7. Collisionless current sheet equilibria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neukirch, T.; Wilson, F.; Allanson, O.

    2018-01-01

    Current sheets are important for the structure and dynamics of many plasma systems. In space and astrophysical plasmas they play a crucial role in activity processes, for example by facilitating the release of magnetic energy via processes such as magnetic reconnection. In this contribution we will focus on collisionless plasma systems. A sensible first step in any investigation of physical processes involving current sheets is to find appropriate equilibrium solutions. The theory of collisionless plasma equilibria is well established, but over the past few years there has been a renewed interest in finding equilibrium distribution functions for collisionless current sheets with particular properties, for example for cases where the current density is parallel to the magnetic field (force-free current sheets). This interest is due to a combination of scientific curiosity and potential applications to space and astrophysical plasmas. In this paper we will give an overview of some of the recent developments, discuss their potential applications and address a number of open questions.

  8. Active inference, communication and hermeneutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl J; Frith, Christopher D

    2015-07-01

    Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others--during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions--both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then--in principle--they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. Active inference, communication and hermeneutics☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl J.; Frith, Christopher D.

    2015-01-01

    Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others – during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions – both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then – in principle – they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. PMID:25957007

  10. Analytical solution for static and dynamic analysis of magnetically affected viscoelastic orthotropic double-layered graphene sheets resting on viscoelastic foundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalaei, M. H.; Arani, A. Ghorbanpour

    2018-02-01

    By considering the small scale effect based on the nonlocal Eringen's theory, the static and dynamic analysis of viscoelastic orthotropic double-layered graphene sheets subjected to longitudinal magnetic field and mechanical load is investigated analytically. For this objective, first order shear deformation theory (FSDT) is proposed. The surrounding medium is simulated by visco-Pasternak foundation model in which damping, normal and transverse shear loads are taken into account. The governing equations of motion are obtained via energy method and Hamilton's principle which are then solved analytically by means of Navier's approach and Laplace inversion technique in the space and time domains, respectively. Through various parametric studies, the influences of the nonlocal parameter, structural damping, van der Waals (vdW) interaction, stiffness and damping coefficient of the foundation, magnetic parameter, aspect ratio and length to thickness ratio on the static and dynamic response of the nanoplates are examined. The results depict that when the vdW interaction is considered to be zero, the upper layer deflection reaches a maximum point whereas the lower layer deflection becomes zero. In addition, it is observed that with growing the vdW interaction, the effect of magnetic field on the deflection of the lower layer increases while this effect reduces for the upper layer deflection.

  11. Statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Rohatgi, Vijay K

    2003-01-01

    Unified treatment of probability and statistics examines and analyzes the relationship between the two fields, exploring inferential issues. Numerous problems, examples, and diagrams--some with solutions--plus clear-cut, highlighted summaries of results. Advanced undergraduate to graduate level. Contents: 1. Introduction. 2. Probability Model. 3. Probability Distributions. 4. Introduction to Statistical Inference. 5. More on Mathematical Expectation. 6. Some Discrete Models. 7. Some Continuous Models. 8. Functions of Random Variables and Random Vectors. 9. Large-Sample Theory. 10. General Meth

  12. Research on Formation Mechanism of Dynamic Response and Residual Stress of Sheet Metal Induced by Laser Shock Wave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Aixin; Cao, Yupeng; Wang, Heng; Zhang, Zhengang

    2018-01-01

    In order to reveal the quantitative control of the residual stress on the surface of metal materials, the relevant theoretical and experimental studies were carried out to investigate the dynamic response of metal thin plates and the formation mechanism of residual stress induced by laser shock wave. In this paper, the latest research trends on the surface residual stress of laser shock processing technology were elaborated. The main progress of laser shock wave propagation mechanism and dynamic response, laser shock, and surface residual stress were discussed. It is pointed out that the multi-scale characterization of laser and material, surface residual stress and microstructure change is a new hotspot in laser shock strengthening technology.

  13. Internal cycling, not external loading, decides the nutrient limitation in eutrophic lake: A dynamic model with temporal Bayesian hierarchical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhen; Liu, Yong; Liang, Zhongyao; Wu, Sifeng; Guo, Huaicheng

    2017-06-01

    Lake eutrophication is associated with excessive anthropogenic nutrients (mainly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)) and unobserved internal nutrient cycling. Despite the advances in understanding the role of external loadings, the contribution of internal nutrient cycling is still an open question. A dynamic mass-balance model was developed to simulate and measure the contributions of internal cycling and external loading. It was based on the temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Framework (BHM), where we explored the seasonal patterns in the dynamics of nutrient cycling processes and the limitation of N and P on phytoplankton growth in hyper-eutrophic Lake Dianchi, China. The dynamic patterns of the five state variables (Chla, TP, ammonia, nitrate and organic N) were simulated based on the model. Five parameters (algae growth rate, sediment exchange rate of N and P, nitrification rate and denitrification rate) were estimated based on BHM. The model provided a good fit to observations. Our model results highlighted the role of internal cycling of N and P in Lake Dianchi. The internal cycling processes contributed more than external loading to the N and P changes in the water column. Further insights into the nutrient limitation analysis indicated that the sediment exchange of P determined the P limitation. Allowing for the contribution of denitrification to N removal, N was the more limiting nutrient in most of the time, however, P was the more important nutrient for eutrophication management. For Lake Dianchi, it would not be possible to recover solely by reducing the external watershed nutrient load; the mechanisms of internal cycling should also be considered as an approach to inhibit the release of sediments and to enhance denitrification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Extending remote sensing estimates of Greenland ice sheet melting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heavner, M.; Loveland, R.

    2010-12-01

    The Melt Area Detection Index (MADI), a remote sensing algorithm to discriminate between dry and wet snow, has been previously developed and applied to the western portion of the Greenland ice sheet for the years 2000-2006, using Moderate Resolution Imaging Radiospectrometer (MODIS) data (Chylek et al, 2007). We extend that work both spatially and temporally by taking advantage of newly available data, and developing algorithms that facilitate the sensing of cloud cover and the automated inference of wet snow regions. The automated methods allow the development of a composite melt area data product with 0.25 km^2 spatial resolution and approximately two week temporal resolution. We discuss melt area dynamics that are inferred from this high resolution composite melt area. Chylek, P., M. McCabe, M. K. Dubey, and J. Dozier (2007), Remote sensing of Greenland ice sheet using multispectral near-infrared and visible radiances, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S20, doi:10.1029/2007JD008742.

  15. Holocene fire, vegetation, and climate dynamics inferred from charcoal and pollen record in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wenwei; Zhao, Yan; Qin, Feng

    2017-10-01

    Understanding fire history and its driving mechanisms can provide valuable insights into present fire regime (intensity, severity and frequency), the interplay between vegetation and fire, and trigger of fire activities. Here we reconstruct the Holocene fire history in the Zoige Basin on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, on the basis of sedimentary micro-charcoal record over the last 10.0 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP) and discuss the influences of vegetation and climate on fire dynamics. Our results show that regional fire was active at 10.0-3.3 ka and a significant decrease in fire activity characterized the period after 3.3 ka. The high regional fire frequency at 10.0-3.3 ka is consistent with the forested landscape suggested by high affinity scores of cool mixed forest biome (mainly consisted of spruce), implying that fire dynamics during this period was generally controlled by the variations of arboreal biomass and summer temperature. During 6.3-4.6 ka the prevailing Asian summer monsoon provided increased moisture to this region and thus suppressed fire activities to an extent, despite the availability of abundant biomass. Declined tree biomass after 3.3 ka probably accounted for the decreased fire activities. In addition, two successive fire events at ca. 3.5-3.3 ka were likely responsible for the subsequent abrupt decline of forest components in the landscape.

  16. Small-scale longitudinal variations in the daytime equatorial thermospheric wave dynamics as inferred from oxygen dayglow emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karan, D. K.; Duggirala, P. R.

    2017-12-01

    The equatorial upper atmospheric dynamic processes show both latitudinal and longitudinal variability. While the variability in latitudes can exist over small distances ( 100s km), the longitudinal behavior has been shown to be existing mainly over large spatial separations ( 1000s km). In the present study we have used the variations in thermospheric optical dayglow emissions at OI 557.7, 630.0, and 777.4 nm, as tracers of neutral dynamics. These emissions are obtained simultaneously from a high resolution slit spectrograph, MISE (Multi wavelength Imaging Spectrograph using Echelle grating), from a low-latitude location, Hyderabad (17.50N, 78.40E; 8.90N MLAT) in India, to investigate the longitudinal differences in the upper atmospheric processes over short separations. Spectral analyses of gravity waves carried out on the dayglow emission intensity variations for different independent viewing directions on some days show dissimilar periodicities suggesting the existence of longitudinal differences. Gravity wave scale sizes and the propagation characteristics on these days are different from those in which longitudinal differences are not seen. Further, the zenith diurnal emission intensity patterns are different on the days with and without the observed longitudinal variability. This study shows for the first time that longitudinal differences in upper atmospheric processes can exist at even as small as 30 longitude separations. Such longitudinal differences seen in the neutral dayglow emission intensities are attributed to the zonal variation in the daytime equatorial electrodynamics.

  17. Dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet and Icelandic Glaciers in the 20th Century Using Geodetic Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Niels Jákup

    used to map the glacial imprint on the landscape in order to geometrically reconstruct the mass changes between the Little Ice Age (LIA) (~1900) to 1978-1987. Thus, the observational record is extended more than a decade (DEM), to around a century (geomorphological mapping). In order to provide a basis...... for analysis, these results are combined with modern laser altimetry, climate data, and a variety of other geophysical data. The results presented in this thesis, show that the margins respond rapidly and highly dynamic to external climatic forcing, followed by deceleration and stabilization controlled...

  18. Limitations on Inferring 3D Architecture and Dynamics From Surface Velocities in the India-Eurasia Collision Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flesch, L.; Bendick, R.; Bischoff, S.

    2018-02-01

    Surface velocities derived from Global Positioning System observations and Quaternary fault slip rates measured throughout an extended region of high topography in South Asia vary smoothly over thousands of kilometers and are broadly symmetrical, with components of both north-south shortening and east-west extension relative to stable Eurasia. The observed velocity field does not contain discontinuities or steep gradients attributable to along-strike differences in collision architecture, despite the well-documented presence of a lithospheric slab beneath the Pamir but not the Tibetan Plateau. We use a modified Akaike information criterion (AICc) to show that surface velocities do not efficiently constrain 3D rheology, geometry, or force balance. Therefore, although other geophysical and geological observations may indicate the presence of mechanical or dynamic heterogeneities within the Indian-Asian collision, the surface Global Positioning System velocities contain little or no usable information about them.

  19. DREISS: Using State-Space Models to Infer the Dynamics of Gene Expression Driven by External and Internal Regulatory Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerstein, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Gene expression is controlled by the combinatorial effects of regulatory factors from different biological subsystems such as general transcription factors (TFs), cellular growth factors and microRNAs. A subsystem’s gene expression may be controlled by its internal regulatory factors, exclusively, or by external subsystems, or by both. It is thus useful to distinguish the degree to which a subsystem is regulated internally or externally–e.g., how non-conserved, species-specific TFs affect the expression of conserved, cross-species genes during evolution. We developed a computational method (DREISS, dreiss.gerteinlab.org) for analyzing the Dynamics of gene expression driven by Regulatory networks, both External and Internal based on State Space models. Given a subsystem, the “state” and “control” in the model refer to its own (internal) and another subsystem’s (external) gene expression levels. The state at a given time is determined by the state and control at a previous time. Because typical time-series data do not have enough samples to fully estimate the model’s parameters, DREISS uses dimensionality reduction, and identifies canonical temporal expression trajectories (e.g., degradation, growth and oscillation) representing the regulatory effects emanating from various subsystems. To demonstrate capabilities of DREISS, we study the regulatory effects of evolutionarily conserved vs. divergent TFs across distant species. In particular, we applied DREISS to the time-series gene expression datasets of C. elegans and D. melanogaster during their embryonic development. We analyzed the expression dynamics of the conserved, orthologous genes (orthologs), seeing the degree to which these can be accounted for by orthologous (internal) versus species-specific (external) TFs. We found that between two species, the orthologs have matched, internally driven expression patterns but very different externally driven ones. This is particularly true for genes with

  20. DREISS: Using State-Space Models to Infer the Dynamics of Gene Expression Driven by External and Internal Regulatory Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daifeng Wang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Gene expression is controlled by the combinatorial effects of regulatory factors from different biological subsystems such as general transcription factors (TFs, cellular growth factors and microRNAs. A subsystem's gene expression may be controlled by its internal regulatory factors, exclusively, or by external subsystems, or by both. It is thus useful to distinguish the degree to which a subsystem is regulated internally or externally-e.g., how non-conserved, species-specific TFs affect the expression of conserved, cross-species genes during evolution. We developed a computational method (DREISS, dreiss.gerteinlab.org for analyzing the Dynamics of gene expression driven by Regulatory networks, both External and Internal based on State Space models. Given a subsystem, the "state" and "control" in the model refer to its own (internal and another subsystem's (external gene expression levels. The state at a given time is determined by the state and control at a previous time. Because typical time-series data do not have enough samples to fully estimate the model's parameters, DREISS uses dimensionality reduction, and identifies canonical temporal expression trajectories (e.g., degradation, growth and oscillation representing the regulatory effects emanating from various subsystems. To demonstrate capabilities of DREISS, we study the regulatory effects of evolutionarily conserved vs. divergent TFs across distant species. In particular, we applied DREISS to the time-series gene expression datasets of C. elegans and D. melanogaster during their embryonic development. We analyzed the expression dynamics of the conserved, orthologous genes (orthologs, seeing the degree to which these can be accounted for by orthologous (internal versus species-specific (external TFs. We found that between two species, the orthologs have matched, internally driven expression patterns but very different externally driven ones. This is particularly true for genes with

  1. Dynamical Timescale of Pre-collapse Evolution Inferred from Chemical Distribution in the Taurus Molecular Cloud-1 (TMC-1) Filament

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Yunhee; Lee, Jeong-Eun [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, 1732, Deogyeong-daero, Giheung-gu, Yongin-si, Gyeonggi-do 17104 (Korea, Republic of); Bourke, Tyler L. [Square Kilometre Array Organisation, Jodrell Bank Observatory, Lower Withington, Cheshire SK11 9DL (United Kingdom); II, Neal J. Evans, E-mail: yunhee.choi@khu.ac.kr, E-mail: jeongeun.lee@khu.ac.kr [Department of Astronomy, University of Texas at Austin, 2515 Speedway, Stop C1400, Austin, TX 78712-1205 (United States)

    2017-04-01

    We present observations and analyses of the low-mass star-forming region, Taurus Molecular Cloud-1 (TMC-1). CS ( J = 2–1)/N{sub 2}H{sup +} ( J = 1–0) and C{sup 17}O ( J = 2–1)/C{sup 18}O ( J = 2–1) were observed with the Five College Radio Astronomy Observatory and the Seoul Radio Astronomy Observatory, respectively. In addition, Spitzer infrared data and 1.2 mm continuum data observed with Max-Planck Millimetre Bolometer are used. We also perform chemical modeling to investigate the relative molecular distributions of the TMC-1 filament. Based on Spitzer observations, there is no young stellar object along the TMC-1 filament, while five Class II and one Class I young stellar objects are identified outside the filament. The comparison between column densities calculated from dust continuum and C{sup 17}O 2–1 line emission shows that CO is depleted much more significantly in the ammonia peak than in the cyanopolyyne peak, while the column densities calculated from the dust continuum are similar at the two peaks. N{sub 2}H{sup +} is not depleted much in either peak. According to our chemical calculation, the differential chemical distribution in the two peaks can be explained by different timescales required to reach the same density, i.e., by different dynamical processes.

  2. Dynamics of avian haemosporidian assemblages through millennial time scales inferred from insular biotas of the West Indies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Leticia; Latta, Steven C; Ricklefs, Robert E

    2017-06-20

    Although introduced hemosporidian (malaria) parasites (Apicomplexa: Haemosporida) have hastened the extinction of endemic bird species in the Hawaiian Islands and perhaps elsewhere, little is known about the temporal dynamics of endemic malaria parasite populations. Haemosporidian parasites do not leave informative fossils, and records of population change are lacking beyond a few decades. Here, we take advantage of the isolation of West Indian land-bridge islands by rising postglacial sea levels to estimate rates of change in hemosporidian parasite assemblages over a millennial time frame. Several pairs of West Indian islands have been connected and separated by falling and rising sea levels associated with the advance and retreat of Pleistocene continental glaciers. We use island isolation following postglacial sea-level rise, ca. 2.5 ka, to characterize long-term change in insular assemblages of hemosporidian parasites. We find that assemblages on formerly connected islands are as differentiated as assemblages on islands that have never been connected, and both are more differentiated than local assemblages sampled up to two decades apart. Differentiation of parasite assemblages between formerly connected islands reflects variation in the prevalence of shared hemosporidian lineages, whereas differentiation between islands isolated by millions of years reflects replacement of hemosporidian lineages infecting similar assemblages of avian host species.

  3. Geometry of thin liquid sheet flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chubb, Donald L.; Calfo, Frederick D.; Mcconley, Marc W.; Mcmaster, Matthew S.; Afjeh, Abdollah A.

    1994-01-01

    Incompresible, thin sheet flows have been of research interest for many years. Those studies were mainly concerned with the stability of the flow in a surrounding gas. Squire was the first to carry out a linear, invicid stability analysis of sheet flow in air and compare the results with experiment. Dombrowski and Fraser did an experimental study of the disintegration of sheet flows using several viscous liquids. They also detected the formulation of holes in their sheet flows. Hagerty and Shea carried out an inviscid stability analysis and calculated growth rates with experimental values. They compared their calculated growth rates with experimental values. Taylor studied extensively the stability of thin liquid sheets both theoretically and experimentally. He showed that thin sheets in a vacuum are stable. Brown experimentally investigated thin liquid sheet flows as a method of application of thin films. Clark and Dumbrowski carried out second-order stability analysis for invicid sheet flows. Lin introduced viscosity into the linear stability analysis of thin sheet flows in a vacuum. Mansour and Chigier conducted an experimental study of the breakup of a sheet flow surrounded by high-speed air. Lin et al. did a linear stability analysis that included viscosity and a surrounding gas. Rangel and Sirignano carried out both a linear and nonlinear invisid stability analysis that applies for any density ratio between the sheet liquid and the surrounding gas. Now there is renewed interest in sheet flows because of their possible application as low mass radiating surfaces. The objective of this study is to investigate the fluid dynamics of sheet flows that are of interest for a space radiator system. Analytical expressions that govern the sheet geometry are compared with experimental results. Since a space radiator will operate in a vacuum, the analysis does not include any drag force on the sheet flow.

  4. Predicting nitrate discharge dynamics in mesoscale catchments using the lumped StreamGEM model and Bayesian parameter inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, Simon James Roy; Wöhling, Thomas; Rode, Michael; Stenger, Roland

    2017-09-01

    The common practice of infrequent (e.g., monthly) stream water quality sampling for state of the environment monitoring may, when combined with high resolution stream flow data, provide sufficient information to accurately characterise the dominant nutrient transfer pathways and predict annual catchment yields. In the proposed approach, we use the spatially lumped catchment model StreamGEM to predict daily stream flow and nitrate concentration (mg L-1 NO3-N) in four contrasting mesoscale headwater catchments based on four years of daily rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and stream flow measurements, and monthly or daily nitrate concentrations. Posterior model parameter distributions were estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling code DREAMZS and a log-likelihood function assuming heteroscedastic, t-distributed residuals. Despite high uncertainty in some model parameters, the flow and nitrate calibration data was well reproduced across all catchments (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency against Log transformed data, NSL, in the range 0.62-0.83 for daily flow and 0.17-0.88 for nitrate concentration). The slight increase in the size of the residuals for a separate validation period was considered acceptable (NSL in the range 0.60-0.89 for daily flow and 0.10-0.74 for nitrate concentration, excluding one data set with limited validation data). Proportions of flow and nitrate discharge attributed to near-surface, fast seasonal groundwater and slow deeper groundwater were consistent with expectations based on catchment geology. The results for the Weida Stream in Thuringia, Germany, using monthly as opposed to daily nitrate data were, for all intents and purposes, identical, suggesting that four years of monthly nitrate sampling provides sufficient information for calibration of the StreamGEM model and prediction of catchment dynamics. This study highlights the remarkable effectiveness of process based, spatially lumped modelling with commonly available monthly

  5. Tissue Distribution Dynamics of Human NK Cells Inferred from Peripheral Blood Depletion Kinetics after Sphingosine-1-Phosphate Receptor Blockade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehling, M; Burgener, A-V; Brinkmann, V; Bantug, G R; Dimeloe, S; Hoenger, G; Kappos, L; Hess, C

    2015-11-01

    Human natural killer (NK) cell subsets differentially distribute throughout the organism. While CD56(dim) and CD56(bright) NK cell subsets similarly reside in the bone marrow (BM), the CD56(dim) population predominantly accumulates in non-lymphoid tissues and the CD56(bright) counterpart in lymphoid tissue (LT). The dynamics with which these NK cell subsets redistribute to tissues remains unexplored. Here, we studied individuals newly exposed to fingolimod, a drug that efficiently blocks sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P)-directed lymphocyte - including NK cell - egress from tissue to blood. During an observation period of 6h peripheral blood depletion of CD56(bright) NK cells was observed 3 h after first dose of fingolimod, with 40-50% depletion after 6 h, while a decrease of the numbers of CD56(dim) NK cells did not reach the level of statistical significance. In vitro, CD56(bright) and CD56(dim) NK cells responded comparably to the BM-homing chemokine CXCL12, while CD56(bright) NK cells migrated more efficiently in gradients of the LT-homing chemokines CCL19 and CCL21. In conjuncture with these in vitro studies, the indirectly observed subset-specific depletion kinetics from blood are compatible with preferential and more rapid redistribution of CD56(bright) NK cells from blood to peripheral tissue such as LT and possibly also the inflamed central nervous system. These data shed light on an unexplored level at which access of NK cells to LT, and thus, for example antigen-presenting cells, is regulated. © 2015 The Foundation for the Scandinavian Journal of Immunology.

  6. Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: A comparison to capture-recapture approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Scott, Sillett T.; Chandler, Richard; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive

  7. GASN sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-12-01

    This document gathers around 50 detailed sheets which describe and present various aspects, data and information related to the nuclear sector or, more generally to energy. The following items are addressed: natural and artificial radioactive environment, evolution of energy needs in the world, radioactive wastes, which energy for France tomorrow, the consequences in France of the Chernobyl accident, ammunitions containing depleted uranium, processing and recycling of used nuclear fuel, transport of radioactive materials, seismic risk for the basic nuclear installations, radon, the precautionary principle, the issue of low doses, the EPR, the greenhouse effect, the Oklo nuclear reactors, ITER on the way towards fusion reactors, simulation and nuclear deterrence, crisis management in the nuclear field, does nuclear research put a break on the development of renewable energies by monopolizing funding, nuclear safety and security, the plutonium, generation IV reactors, comparison of different modes of electricity production, medical exposure to ionizing radiations, the control of nuclear activities, food preservation by ionization, photovoltaic solar collectors, the Polonium 210, the dismantling of nuclear installations, wind energy, desalination and nuclear reactors, from non-communication to transparency about nuclear safety, the Jules Horowitz reactor, CO 2 capture and storage, hydrogen, solar energy, the radium, the subcontractors of maintenance of the nuclear fleet, biomass, internal radio-contamination, epidemiological studies, submarine nuclear propulsion, sea energy, the Three Mile Island accident, the Chernobyl accident, the Fukushima accident, the nuclear after Fukushima

  8. Eight challenges in phylodynamic inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D.W. Frost

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The field of phylodynamics, which attempts to enhance our understanding of infectious disease dynamics using pathogen phylogenies, has made great strides in the past decade. Basic epidemiological and evolutionary models are now well characterized with inferential frameworks in place. However, significant challenges remain in extending phylodynamic inference to more complex systems. These challenges include accounting for evolutionary complexities such as changing mutation rates, selection, reassortment, and recombination, as well as epidemiological complexities such as stochastic population dynamics, host population structure, and different patterns at the within-host and between-host scales. An additional challenge exists in making efficient inferences from an ever increasing corpus of sequence data.

  9. Termination behaviour of supraglacial lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selmes, Nick; Murray, Tavi; James, Timothy

    2013-04-01

    The behaviour of supraglacial lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet, specifically with regard to their drainage through hydrofracturing to the ice sheet base, has received a great deal of recent attention. However, a previous study has shown that this mode of drainage accounts for only 13% of the lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet. No published work to date has studied what happens to those lakes that do not drain suddenly, and little is known about what differences exist between those lakes which drain suddenly and those which do not. To learn more about the fate of those lakes that do not drain rapidly, we followed the evolution of 2600 supraglacial lakes over the five year period 2005-2009 using 3704 MODIS images. Lakes were studied in all areas of the ice sheet where they grow large enough to be observed using MODIS data (250 m pixels). From the MODIS images lake extent was classified and area was extracted giving a dataset of lake area over time. We used these data along with inferred melt from the MODIS Land Surface Temperature data product and qualitative observations from the imagery to discover how each lake disappeared from the ice sheet each year. Here we present three different modes by which lakes can disappear from the ice sheet, which have strongly contrasting effects on glacial dynamics and ice sheet water budget. Firstly, 13% of all lakes drained suddenly, probably to the bed. We observed groups of lakes draining suddenly in the same day in apparently linked events suggesting a common trigger mechanism for drainage. Secondly, some lakes drained more slowly over several days (34% of lakes in our dataset). We interpret this to be the result of supraglacial drainage, probably through incision of the exit channel. Finally, 46% of lakes survived to the end of the melt season and froze over. We suggest hypotheses from our findings as to what factors control whether or not sudden lake drainage to the bed occurs. Our results show that care must be taken when

  10. Thermal rupture of a free liquid sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitavtsev, G.; Fontelos, M. A.; Eggers, J.

    2018-04-01

    We consider a free liquid sheet, taking into account the dependence of surface tension on temperature, or concentration of some pollutant. The sheet dynamics are described within a long-wavelength description. In the presence of viscosity, local thinning of the sheet is driven by a strong temperature gradient across the pinch region, resembling a shock. As a result, for long times the sheet thins exponentially, leading to breakup. We describe the quasi one-dimensional thickness, velocity, and temperature profiles in the pinch region in terms of similarity solutions, which posses a universal structure. Our analytical description agrees quantitatively with numerical simulations.

  11. Sediment plume response to surface melting and supraglacial lake drainages on the Greenland ice sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chu, Vena W.; Smith, Laurence C; Rennermalm, Asa K.

    2009-01-01

    Increased mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet and inferred contributions to sea-level rise have heightened the need for hydrologic observations of meltwater exiting the ice sheet. We explore whether temporal variations in ice-sheet surface hydrology can be linked to the development of a down...

  12. Ice sheet hydrology - a review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansson, Peter; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Rodhe, Lars

    2007-03-01

    This report summarizes the theoretical knowledge on water flow in and beneath glaciers and ice sheets and how these theories are applied in models to simulate the hydrology of ice sheets. The purpose is to present the state of knowledge and, perhaps more importantly, identify the gaps in our understanding of ice sheet hydrology. Many general concepts in hydrology and hydraulics are applicable to water flow in glaciers. However, the unique situation of having the liquid phase flowing in conduits of the solid phase of the same material, water, is not a commonly occurring phenomena. This situation means that the heat exchange between the phases and the resulting phase changes also have to be accounted for in the analysis. The fact that the solidus in the pressure-temperature dependent phase diagram of water has a negative slope provides further complications. Ice can thus melt or freeze from both temperature and pressure variations or variations in both. In order to provide details of the current understanding of water flow in conjunction with deforming ice and to provide understanding for the development of ideas and models, emphasis has been put on the mathematical treatments, which are reproduced in detail. Qualitative results corroborating theory or, perhaps more often, questioning the simplifications made in theory, are also given. The overarching problem with our knowledge of glacier hydrology is the gap between the local theories of processes and the general flow of water in glaciers and ice sheets. Water is often channelized in non-stationary conduits through the ice, features which due to their minute size relative to the size of glaciers and ice sheets are difficult to incorporate in spatially larger models. Since the dynamic response of ice sheets to global warming is becoming a key issue in, e.g. sea-level change studies, the problems of the coupling between the hydrology of an ice sheet and its dynamics is steadily gaining interest. New work is emerging

  13. Ice sheet hydrology - a review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansson, Peter; Naeslund, Jens-Ove [Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden); Rodhe, Lars [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2007-03-15

    This report summarizes the theoretical knowledge on water flow in and beneath glaciers and ice sheets and how these theories are applied in models to simulate the hydrology of ice sheets. The purpose is to present the state of knowledge and, perhaps more importantly, identify the gaps in our understanding of ice sheet hydrology. Many general concepts in hydrology and hydraulics are applicable to water flow in glaciers. However, the unique situation of having the liquid phase flowing in conduits of the solid phase of the same material, water, is not a commonly occurring phenomena. This situation means that the heat exchange between the phases and the resulting phase changes also have to be accounted for in the analysis. The fact that the solidus in the pressure-temperature dependent phase diagram of water has a negative slope provides further complications. Ice can thus melt or freeze from both temperature and pressure variations or variations in both. In order to provide details of the current understanding of water flow in conjunction with deforming ice and to provide understanding for the development of ideas and models, emphasis has been put on the mathematical treatments, which are reproduced in detail. Qualitative results corroborating theory or, perhaps more often, questioning the simplifications made in theory, are also given. The overarching problem with our knowledge of glacier hydrology is the gap between the local theories of processes and the general flow of water in glaciers and ice sheets. Water is often channelized in non-stationary conduits through the ice, features which due to their minute size relative to the size of glaciers and ice sheets are difficult to incorporate in spatially larger models. Since the dynamic response of ice sheets to global warming is becoming a key issue in, e.g. sea-level change studies, the problems of the coupling between the hydrology of an ice sheet and its dynamics is steadily gaining interest. New work is emerging

  14. Evolution of a Greenland Ice sheet Including Shelves and Regional Sea Level Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Sarah; Reerink, Thomas; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Helsen, Michiel; Goelzer, Heiko

    2016-04-01

    Observational evidence, including offshore moraines and marine sediment cores infer that at the Last Glacial maximum (LGM) the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) grounded out across the Davis Strait into Baffin Bay, with fast flowing ice streams extending out to the continental shelf break along the NW margin. These observations lead to a number of questions as to weather the GIS and Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) coalesced during glacial maximums, and if so, did a significant ice shelf develop across Baffin Bay and how would such a configuration impact on the relative contribution of these ice sheets to eustatic sea level (ESL). Most previous paleo ice sheet modelling simulations of the GIS recreated an ice sheet that either did not extend out onto the continental shelf or utilised a simplified marine ice parameterisation to recreate an extended GIS, and therefore did not fully include ice shelf dynamics. In this study we simulate the evolution of the GIS from 220 kyr BP to present day using IMAU-ice; a 3D thermodynamical ice sheet model which fully accounts for grounded and floating ice, calculates grounding line migration and ice shelf dynamics. As there are few observational estimates of the long-term (yrs) sub marine basal melting rates (mbm) for the GIS, we developed a mbm parameterization within IMAU-ice controlled primarily by changes in paleo water depth. We also investigate the influence of the LIS on the GIS evolution by including relative sea level forcing's derived from a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model. We will present results of how changes in the mbm directly impacts on the ice sheet dynamics, timing and spatial extent of the GIS at the glacial maximums, but also on the rate of retreat and spatial extent at the Last interglacial (LIG) minimum. Results indicate that with the inclusion of ice shelf dynamics, a larger GIS is generated which is grounded out into Davis strait, up to a water depth of -750 m, but significantly reduces the GIS contribution to Last

  15. Cholera Fact Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... sheets Fact files Questions & answers Features Multimedia Contacts Cholera Fact sheet Updated December 2017 Key facts Cholera ... behaviour and to the control of cholera. Oral cholera vaccines Currently there are three WHO pre-qualified ...

  16. Modelling the marine advance of the last Cordilleran ice sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seguinot, Julien; Rogozhina, Irina

    2014-05-01

    Marine advance of the last Cordilleran ice sheet onto the north-eastern Pacific continental shelf may have caused rapid fluctuations of sea level and potentially impacted upon human migration into North America. However the position of the former ice front was critically controlled by a process that remains poorly understood: glacier calving. Geomorphological reconstructions show that part of the presently oceanic areas were ice-covered, allowing for downstream formation of the well-studied Puget and Juan de Fuca lobes. Here we use a numerical glacier model (PISM) to reconstruct the former marine front of the Cordilleran ice sheet and its impact on upstream ice dynamics. Our simulations show that the use of a thickness-based calving law leads to a strong deficit of marine ice cover in the areas where existing reconstructions suggest its advance. In contrast, a physically-based parametrization of glacier calving using the main components of the strain rate tensor (eigencalving; A. Levermann, T. Albrecht, R. Winkelmann, M. A. Martin, M. Haseloff, and I. Joughin, The Cryosphere, 6, 273-286, 2012) reproduces the geomorphologically inferred ice extent.

  17. Antarctic Circumpolar Current Dynamics and Their Relation to Antarctic Ice Sheet and Perennial Sea-Ice Variability in the Central Drake Passage During the Last Climate Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, G.; Wu, S.; Hass, H. C.; Klages, J. P.; Zheng, X.; Arz, H. W.; Esper, O.; Hillenbrand, C. D.; Lange, C.; Lamy, F.; Lohmann, G.; Müller, J.; McCave, I. N. N.; Nürnberg, D.; Roberts, J.; Tiedemann, R.; Timmermann, A.; Titschack, J.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last climate cycle and the interrelation to global atmospheric and ocean circulation remains controversial and plays an important role for our understanding of ice sheet response to modern global warming. The timing and sequence of deglacial warming is relevant for understanding the variability and sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climatic changes, and the continuing rise of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is a pivotal component of the global water budget. Freshwater fluxes from the ice sheet may affect the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which is strongly impacted by the westerly wind belt in the Southern Hemisphere (SHWW) and constricted to its narrowest extent in the Drake Passage. The flow of ACC water masses through Drake Passage is, therefore, crucial for advancing our understanding of the Southern Ocean's role in global meridional overturning circulation and global climate change. In order to address orbital and millennial-scale variability of the Antarctic ice sheet and the ACC, we applied a multi-proxy approach on a sediment core from the central Drake Passage including grain size, iceberg-rafted debris, mineral dust, bulk chemical and mineralogical composition, and physical properties. In combination with already published and new sediment records from the Drake Passage and Scotia Sea, as well as high-resolution data from Antarctic ice cores (WDC, EDML), we now have evidence that during glacial times a more northerly extent of the perennial sea-ice zone decreased ACC current velocities in the central Drake Passage. During deglaciation the SHWW shifted southwards due to a decreasing temperature gradient between subtropical and polar latitudes caused by sea ice and ice sheet decline. This in turn caused Southern Hemisphere warming, a more vigorous ACC, stronger Southern Ocean ventilation, and warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) upwelling on Antarctic shelves

  18. Likely Basal Thermal State of the Greenland Ice Sheet V001

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Likely Basal Thermal State of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) product contains key data sets that show how the likely basal thermal state was inferred from...

  19. Inferring evoked brain connectivity through adaptive perturbation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepage, Kyle Q; Ching, ShiNung; Kramer, Mark A

    2013-04-01

    Inference of functional networks-representing the statistical associations between time series recorded from multiple sensors-has found important applications in neuroscience. However, networksexhibiting time-locked activity between physically independent elements can bias functional connectivity estimates employing passive measurements. Here, a perturbative and adaptive method of inferring network connectivity based on measurement and stimulation-so called "evoked network connectivity" is introduced. This procedure, employing a recursive Bayesian update scheme, allows principled network stimulation given a current network estimate inferred from all previous stimulations and recordings. The method decouples stimulus and detector design from network inference and can be suitably applied to a wide range of clinical and basic neuroscience related problems. The proposed method demonstrates improved accuracy compared to network inference based on passive observation of node dynamics and an increased rate of convergence relative to network estimation employing a naïve stimulation strategy.

  20. Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new-generation ice sheet model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Gagliardini

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice sheet flow models, in their current state, were unable to provide accurate forecast for the increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice flow models, and as a result a significant number of new ice sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger-scale problems, earning the status of an ice sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. Elmer/Ice solves the full-Stokes equations, for isotropic but also anisotropic ice rheology, resolves the grounding line dynamics as a contact problem, and contains various basal friction laws. Derived fields, like the age of the ice, the strain rate or stress, can also be computed. Elmer/Ice includes two recently proposed inverse methods to infer badly known parameters. Elmer is a highly parallelised code thanks to recent developments and the implementation of a block preconditioned solver for the Stokes system. In this paper, all these components are presented in detail, as well as the numerical performance of the Stokes solver and developments planned for the future.

  1. Firm Investment and Balance-Sheet Problems in Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Toshitaka Sekine

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether balance-sheet conditions of firms and their main banks matter for firm investment behavior using dynamic corporate panel data in Japan for the period 1985-95. It finds that smaller non-bond issuing firms were facing liquidity constraints; these firms’ balance-sheet conditions (the debt asset ratios) affected their investment from the midst of the bubble era by influencing main banks’ lending to them; and the deterioration of their main banks’ balance-sheet cond...

  2. Ice sheet in peril

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvidberg, Christine Schøtt

    2016-01-01

    Earth's large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are major contributors to sea level change. At present, the Greenland Ice Sheet (see the photo) is losing mass in response to climate warming in Greenland (1), but the present changes also include a long-term response to past climate transitions...

  3. Global transcription regulation of RK2 plasmids: a case study in the combined use of dynamical mathematical models and statistical inference for integration of experimental data and hypothesis exploration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Christopher M

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background IncP-1 plasmids are broad host range plasmids that have been found in clinical and environmental bacteria. They often carry genes for antibiotic resistance or catabolic pathways. The archetypal IncP-1 plasmid RK2 is a well-characterized biological system, with a fully sequenced and annotated genome and wide range of experimental measurements. Its central control operon, encoding two global regulators KorA and KorB, is a natural example of a negatively self-regulated operon. To increase our understanding of the regulation of this operon, we have constructed a dynamical mathematical model using Ordinary Differential Equations, and employed a Bayesian inference scheme, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, as a way of integrating experimental measurements and a priori knowledge. We also compared MCMC and Metabolic Control Analysis (MCA as approaches for determining the sensitivity of model parameters. Results We identified two distinct sets of parameter values, with different biological interpretations, that fit and explain the experimental data. This allowed us to highlight the proportion of repressor protein as dimers as a key experimental measurement defining the dynamics of the system. Analysis of joint posterior distributions led to the identification of correlations between parameters for protein synthesis and partial repression by KorA or KorB dimers, indicating the necessary use of joint posteriors for correct parameter estimation. Using MCA, we demonstrated that the system is highly sensitive to the growth rate but insensitive to repressor monomerization rates in their selected value regions; the latter outcome was also confirmed by MCMC. Finally, by examining a series of different model refinements for partial repression by KorA or KorB dimers alone, we showed that a model including partial repression by KorA and KorB was most compatible with existing experimental data. Conclusions We

  4. SEMANTIC PATCH INFERENCE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    Collateral evolution the problem of updating several library-using programs in response to API changes in the used library. In this dissertation we address the issue of understanding collateral evolutions by automatically inferring a high-level specification of the changes evident in a given set...... specifications inferred by spdiff in Linux are shown. We find that the inferred specifications concisely capture the actual collateral evolution performed in the examples....

  5. Multistability and perceptual inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershman, Samuel J; Vul, Edward; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

    2012-01-01

    Ambiguous images present a challenge to the visual system: How can uncertainty about the causes of visual inputs be represented when there are multiple equally plausible causes? A Bayesian ideal observer should represent uncertainty in the form of a posterior probability distribution over causes. However, in many real-world situations, computing this distribution is intractable and requires some form of approximation. We argue that the visual system approximates the posterior over underlying causes with a set of samples and that this approximation strategy produces perceptual multistability--stochastic alternation between percepts in consciousness. Under our analysis, multistability arises from a dynamic sample-generating process that explores the posterior through stochastic diffusion, implementing a rational form of approximate Bayesian inference known as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We examine in detail the most extensively studied form of multistability, binocular rivalry, showing how a variety of experimental phenomena--gamma-like stochastic switching, patchy percepts, fusion, and traveling waves--can be understood in terms of MCMC sampling over simple graphical models of the underlying perceptual tasks. We conjecture that the stochastic nature of spiking neurons may lend itself to implementing sample-based posterior approximations in the brain.

  6. Dynamic Typing: Syntax and Proof Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henglein, Fritz

    1994-01-01

    Dynamic typing, coercions, dynamically typed lambda-calculus, type inference coherence, completions, safety, minimality......Dynamic typing, coercions, dynamically typed lambda-calculus, type inference coherence, completions, safety, minimality...

  7. Greenland Ice Sheet flow response to runoff variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stevens, Laura A.; Behn, Mark D.; Das, Sarah B.; Joughin, Ian; Noël, Brice P Y; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Herring, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    We use observations of ice sheet surface motion from a Global Positioning System network operating from 2006 to 2014 around North Lake in west Greenland to investigate the dynamical response of the Greenland Ice Sheet's ablation area to interannual variability in surface melting. We find no

  8. Inference in `poor` languages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petrov, S.

    1996-10-01

    Languages with a solvable implication problem but without complete and consistent systems of inference rules (`poor` languages) are considered. The problem of existence of finite complete and consistent inference rule system for a ``poor`` language is stated independently of the language or rules syntax. Several properties of the problem arc proved. An application of results to the language of join dependencies is given.

  9. Bayesian statistical inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno De Finetti

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

  10. Geometric statistical inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Periwal, Vipul

    1999-01-01

    A reparametrization-covariant formulation of the inverse problem of probability is explicitly solved for finite sample sizes. The inferred distribution is explicitly continuous for finite sample size. A geometric solution of the statistical inference problem in higher dimensions is outlined

  11. Practical Bayesian Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailer-Jones, Coryn A. L.

    2017-04-01

    Preface; 1. Probability basics; 2. Estimation and uncertainty; 3. Statistical models and inference; 4. Linear models, least squares, and maximum likelihood; 5. Parameter estimation: single parameter; 6. Parameter estimation: multiple parameters; 7. Approximating distributions; 8. Monte Carlo methods for inference; 9. Parameter estimation: Markov chain Monte Carlo; 10. Frequentist hypothesis testing; 11. Model comparison; 12. Dealing with more complicated problems; References; Index.

  12. Is there a hierarchy of social inferences? The likelihood and speed of inferring intentionality, mind, and personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malle, Bertram F; Holbrook, Jess

    2012-04-01

    People interpret behavior by making inferences about agents' intentionality, mind, and personality. Past research studied such inferences 1 at a time; in real life, people make these inferences simultaneously. The present studies therefore examined whether 4 major inferences (intentionality, desire, belief, and personality), elicited simultaneously in response to an observed behavior, might be ordered in a hierarchy of likelihood and speed. To achieve generalizability, the studies included a wide range of stimulus behaviors, presented them verbally and as dynamic videos, and assessed inferences both in a retrieval paradigm (measuring the likelihood and speed of accessing inferences immediately after they were made) and in an online processing paradigm (measuring the speed of forming inferences during behavior observation). Five studies provide evidence for a hierarchy of social inferences-from intentionality and desire to belief to personality-that is stable across verbal and visual presentations and that parallels the order found in developmental and primate research. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  13. Recent Progress in Greenland Ice Sheet Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goelzer, Heiko; Robinson, Alexander; Seroussi, Helene; Van De Wal, Roderik S.w.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose of Review This paper reviews the recent literature on numerical modelling of the dynamics of the Greenland ice sheet with the goal of providing an overview of advancements and to highlight important directions of future research. In particular, the review is focused on large-scale modelling

  14. Global thermodynamics of a polar ice sheet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veen, C.J. van der; Oerlemans, J.

    1984-01-01

    In this paper, the global characteristics of a polar ice sheet are investigated. When looking at a drainage system as a whole, conservation of heat yields a very simple functional relation. Coupling this relation to an equation describing the large-scale dynamics of a drainage system makes it

  15. Anesthesia Fact Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Education About NIGMS NIGMS Home > Science Education > Anesthesia Anesthesia Tagline (Optional) Middle/Main Content Area En español ... Version (464 KB) Other Fact Sheets What is anesthesia? Anesthesia is a medical treatment that prevents patients ...

  16. Structural Biology Fact Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... beta sheets (blue; thinner, tangled strands). Credit: RCSB Protein Data Bank. Even though proteins are strings of amino acids, ... structure of more than 122,000 proteins. The Protein Data Bank stores these structures and gives scientists access to ...

  17. Sepsis Fact Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Education About NIGMS NIGMS Home > Science Education > Sepsis Sepsis Tagline (Optional) Middle/Main Content Area PDF Version ( ... KB) En español Other Fact Sheets What is sepsis? Sepsis is a serious medical condition. It is ...

  18. Respirator Fact Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to protect myself, my family, and/or my employees? If available and used correctly, a respirator can ... Respirator Fact Sheet [PDF - 706 KB] Follow NIOSH Facebook Flickr Pinterest Twitter YouTube NIOSH Homepage NIOSH A- ...

  19. Energy information sheets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-07-01

    The National Energy Information Center (NEIC), as part of its mission, provides energy information and referral assistance to Federal, State, and local governments, the academic community, business and industrial organizations, and the public. The Energy Information Sheets was developed to provide general information on various aspects of fuel production, prices, consumption, and capability. Additional information on related subject matter can be found in other Energy Information Administration (EIA) publications as referenced at the end of each sheet.

  20. Artificial Hydrocarbon Networks Fuzzy Inference System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiram Ponce

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel fuzzy inference model based on artificial hydrocarbon networks, a computational algorithm for modeling problems based on chemical hydrocarbon compounds. In particular, the proposed fuzzy-molecular inference model (FIM-model uses molecular units of information to partition the output space in the defuzzification step. Moreover, these molecules are linguistic units that can be partially understandable due to the organized structure of the topology and metadata parameters involved in artificial hydrocarbon networks. In addition, a position controller for a direct current (DC motor was implemented using the proposed FIM-model in type-1 and type-2 fuzzy inference systems. Experimental results demonstrate that the fuzzy-molecular inference model can be applied as an alternative of type-2 Mamdani’s fuzzy control systems because the set of molecular units can deal with dynamic uncertainties mostly present in real-world control applications.

  1. Assimilation of satellite reflectance data into a dynamical leaf model to infer seasonally varying leaf areas for climate and carbon models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Q.; Gu, L.; Dickinson, R. E.; Tian, Y.; Zhou, L.; Post, W. M.

    2008-10-01

    Leaf area index is an important input for many climate and carbon models. The widely used leaf area products derived from satellite-observed surface reflectances contain substantial erratic fluctuations in time due to inadequate atmospheric corrections and observational and retrieval uncertainties. These fluctuations are inconsistent with the seasonal dynamics of leaf area, known to be gradual. Their use in process-based terrestrial carbon models corrupts model behavior, making diagnosis of model performance difficult. We propose a data assimilation approach that combines the satellite observations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo with a dynamical leaf model. Its novelty is that the seasonal cycle of the directly retrieved leaf areas is smooth and consistent with both observations and current understandings of processes controlling leaf area dynamics. The approach optimizes the dynamical model parameters such that the difference between the estimated surface reflectances based on the modeled leaf area and those of satellite observations is minimized. We demonstrate the usefulness and advantage of our new approach at multiple deciduous forest sites in the United States.

  2. Knowledge and inference

    CERN Document Server

    Nagao, Makoto

    1990-01-01

    Knowledge and Inference discusses an important problem for software systems: How do we treat knowledge and ideas on a computer and how do we use inference to solve problems on a computer? The book talks about the problems of knowledge and inference for the purpose of merging artificial intelligence and library science. The book begins by clarifying the concept of """"knowledge"""" from many points of view, followed by a chapter on the current state of library science and the place of artificial intelligence in library science. Subsequent chapters cover central topics in the artificial intellig

  3. Logical inference and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perey, F.G.

    1981-01-01

    Most methodologies of evaluation currently used are based upon the theory of statistical inference. It is generally perceived that this theory is not capable of dealing satisfactorily with what are called systematic errors. Theories of logical inference should be capable of treating all of the information available, including that not involving frequency data. A theory of logical inference is presented as an extension of deductive logic via the concept of plausibility and the application of group theory. Some conclusions, based upon the application of this theory to evaluation of data, are also given

  4. Subglacial water drainage, storage, and piracy beneath the Greenland ice sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindbäck, K.; Pettersson, R.; Hubbard, A. L.; Doyle, S. H.; As, D.; Mikkelsen, A. B.; Fitzpatrick, A. A.

    2015-09-01

    Meltwater drainage across the surface of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is well constrained by measurements and modeling, yet despite its critical role, knowledge of its transit through the subglacial environment remains limited. Here we present a subglacial hydrological analysis of a land-terminating sector of the GrIS at unprecedented resolution that predicts the routing of surface-derived meltwater once it has entered the basal drainage system. Our analysis indicates the probable existence of small subglacial lakes that remain undetectable by methods using surface elevation change or radar techniques. Furthermore, the analysis suggests transient behavior with rapid switching of subglacial drainage between competing catchments driven by seasonal changes in the basal water pressure. Our findings provide a cautionary note that should be considered in studies that attempt to relate and infer future response from surface temperature, melt, and runoff from point measurements and/or modeling with measurements of proglacial discharge and ice dynamics.

  5. How can a beta-sheet peptide be both a potent antimicrobial and harmfully toxic? Molecular dynamics simulations of protegrin-1 in micelles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langham, Allison A; Khandelia, Himanshu; Kaznessis, Yiannis N

    2006-01-01

    In this work, the naturally occurring beta-hairpin antimicrobial peptide protegrin-1 (PG-1) is studied by molecular dynamics simulation in all-atom sodium dodecylsulfate and dodecylphosphocholine micelles. These simulations provide a high-resolution picture of the interactions between the peptide...

  6. Global dynamics of shaft lines of turbo-machineries coupled to surrounding fluids: application to the case of fluid sheets; Dynamique globale des lignes d'arbres de turbomachines couplees aux fluides environnants: application au cas des lames fluides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lornage, D.

    2001-12-15

    Shaft lines of turbo-machineries have to stand increasing reliability, efficiency and safety requirements. A precise modeling of the rotating parts with all possible coupling has become necessary. In this context, this work aims to develop a global modeling of rotating wheel/shaft system inside a surrounding fluid in order to foresee its dynamical behaviour. The use and advantage of Eulerian, Lagrangian and mixed (arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian - ALE) formulations is recalled first. A bibliographic synthesis of the classical techniques used in structure mechanics and of coupling techniques for rotating machines is presented. The coupling technique retained is presented. It uses fluid and structure models independently developed and validated. The structure domain is discretized by the finite-element method. The fluid domain is discretized by the finite-difference method taking into consideration the hypotheses linked with thin films. A modal base projection combined with a mesh at the fluid-structure interface allows an efficient, adaptable and evolutive coupling. Finally, the method is applied to 3 test-cases. The first two ones comprise a shaft/disc system coupled to a fluid sheet between the disc and the casing and to an hydrodynamic bearing. Both cases allow a first validation of the coupling method. The third case aims to study a structure closer to a real system made of a shaft and a wheel coupled to a fluid sheet between a flange and a casing. These three applications allow to show the trends linked with the fluid effects and the coupling between the flexible sub-parts of the structure. (J.S.)

  7. Sedimentary organic matter and carbonate variations in the Chukchi Borderland in association with ice sheet and ocean-atmosphere dynamics over the last 155 kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rella, S. F.; Uchida, M.

    2012-12-01

    Knowledge on past variability of sedimentary organic carbon in the Arctic Ocean is important to assess natural carbon cycling and transport processes related to global climate changes. However, the late Pleistocene oceanographic history of the Arctic is still poorly understood. In the present study we show sedimentary records of total organic carbon (TOC), CaCO3, benthic foraminiferal δ18O and the coarse grain size fraction from a piston core recovered from the northern Northwind Ridge in the far western Arctic Ocean. TOC shows orbital-scale increases and decreases during the past ~155 kyr that can be respectively correlated to the waxing and waning of large ice sheets dominating the Eurasian Arctic, suggesting advection of fine suspended matter derived from glacial erosion to the Northwind Ridge by eastward flowing intermediate water and/or surface water and sea ice during cold periods. At millennial scales, increases in TOC might correlate to a suite of Dansgaard-Oeschger Stadials between 120 and 45 ka BP indicating a possible response to abrupt northern hemispheric temperature changes. Between 70 and 45 ka BP, closures and openings of the Bering Strait could have additionally influenced TOC variability. CaCO3 contents tend to anti-correlate with TOC on both orbital and millennial time scales, which we interpret in terms of enhanced sediment advection from the carbonate-rich Canadian Arctic via an extended Beaufort Gyre during warm periods and increased organic carbon advection from the Siberian Arctic during cold periods when the Beaufort Gyre contracted. We propose that this pattern may be related to orbital- and millennial-scale variations of dominant atmospheric surface pressure systems expressed in mode shifts of the Arctic Oscillation.

  8. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  9. The Development of the Silurian Trilobite Aulacopleura koninckii Reconstructed by Applying Inferred Growth and Segmentation Dynamics: A Case Study in Paleo-Evo-Devo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel C. Hughes

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Fossilized growth series provide rare glimpses into the development of ancient organisms, illustrating descriptively how size and shape changed through ontogeny. Occasionally fossil preservation is such that it is feasible to test alternative possibilities about how ancient development was regulated. Here we apply inferred developmental parameters pertaining to size, shape, and segmentation in the abundant and well-preserved 429 Myr old trilobite Aulacopleura koninckii that we have investigated previously to reconstruct the post-embryonic ontogeny of this ancient arthropod. Our published morphometric analyses associated with model testing have shown that: specification of the adult number of trunk segments (polymorphic in this species was determined precociously in ontogeny; that growth regulation was targeted (i.e., compensatory, such that each developmental stage exhibited comparable variance in size and shape; and that growth gradients operating along the main body axis, both during juvenile and adult ontogeny, resulted from a form of growth control based on positional specification. While such developmental features are common among extant organisms, our results represent the oldest evidence for them within Metazoa. Herein, the novel reconstruction of the development of Aulacopleura koninckii permits visualization of patterns of relative and absolute growth and segmentation as never before possible for a fossilized arthropod ontogeny. By conducting morphometric analysis of appropriate data sets it is thus possible to move beyond descriptive ontogenetic studies and to address questions of high interest for evolutionary developmental biology using data from fossils, which can help elucidate both how developmental processes themselves evolve and how they affect the evolution of organismal body patterning. By extending similar analyses to other cases of exceptional preservation of fossilized ontogeny, we can anticipate beginning to realize the

  10. Dome collapse mechanisms and block-and-ash flow emplacement dynamics inferred from deposit and impact mark analysis, Mono Craters, CA

    OpenAIRE

    Dennen, R. L.; Bursik, M. I.; Roche, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Characteristics of the Panum block-and-ash flow (BAF) deposit, Mono Craters, CA, were analyzed to determine the mechanisms of collapse of the parent dome and dynamics of emplacement of the BAF. Granulometry, componentry, and obsidian water content data were used to define distinct facies of the Panum BAF deposit. These suggest a sequential, three-stage collapse model for the ancestral dome of the Panum vent, with destabilization first of its cold, brittle outer margins and then of its hot, du...

  11. Introductory statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Nitis

    2014-01-01

    This gracefully organized text reveals the rigorous theory of probability and statistical inference in the style of a tutorial, using worked examples, exercises, figures, tables, and computer simulations to develop and illustrate concepts. Drills and boxed summaries emphasize and reinforce important ideas and special techniques.Beginning with a review of the basic concepts and methods in probability theory, moments, and moment generating functions, the author moves to more intricate topics. Introductory Statistical Inference studies multivariate random variables, exponential families of dist

  12. An experimental study on superplastic behaviors of magnesium alloy sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin Quanlin; Wu Huiying [Beijing Research Inst. of Mechanical and Electrical Technology (China)

    2005-07-01

    An experimental study on superplastic forming behaviors and microstructure characters of commercial magnesium alloy sheet AZ31B is presented in this paper. The main experimental results show that the commercial magnesium alloy AZ31B sheet has superplastic capability. For the received sheet without any pre-processing, the maximum elongation is 295%. The dynamic recrystallization and grain refinement can be found. The superplastic behaviors can be improved by controlling the dynamic recrystallization and grain refinement. Some experimental results of free superplastic bulging are presented in this paper. The results show that influence of temperature on forming capability is much less than the influences of temperature on elongation. (orig.)

  13. Sedimentary organic matter and carbonate variations in the Chukchi Borderland in association with ice sheet and ocean-atmosphere dynamics over the last 155 kyr

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. F. Rella

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on past variability of sedimentary organic carbon in the Arctic Ocean is important to assess natural carbon cycling and transport processes related to global climate changes. However, the late Pleistocene oceanographic history of the Arctic is still poorly understood. In the present study we show sedimentary records of total organic carbon (TOC, CaCO3, benthic foraminiferal δ18O and the coarse grain size fraction from a piston core recovered from the northern Northwind Ridge in the far western Arctic Ocean, a region potentially sensitively responding to past variability in surface current regimes and sedimentary processes such as coastal erosion. An age model based on oxygen stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating and lithological constraints suggests that the piston core records paleoenvironmental changes of the last 155 kyr. TOC shows orbital-scale increases and decreases that can be respectively correlated to the waxing and waning of large ice sheets dominating the Eurasian Arctic, suggesting advection of fine suspended matter derived from glacial erosion to the Northwind Ridge by eastward flowing intermediate water and/or surface water and sea ice during cold episodes of the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. At millennial scales, increases in TOC might correlate to a suite of Dansgaard-Oeschger Stadials between 120 and 45 ka before present (BP indicating a possible response to abrupt northern hemispheric temperature changes. Between 70 and 45 ka BP, closures and openings of the Bering Strait could have additionally influenced TOC variability. CaCO3 content tends to anti-correlate with TOC on both orbital and millennial time scales, which we interpret in terms of enhanced sediment advection from the carbonate-rich Canadian Arctic via an extended Beaufort Gyre during warm periods of the last two glacial-interglacial cycles and increased organic carbon advection from the Siberian Arctic during cold

  14. Safety advice sheets

    CERN Multimedia

    HSE Unit

    2013-01-01

    You never know when you might be faced with questions such as: when/how should I dispose of a gas canister? Where can I find an inspection report? How should I handle/store/dispose of a chemical substance…?   The SI section of the DGS/SEE Group is primarily responsible for safety inspections, evaluating the safety conditions of equipment items, premises and facilities. On top of this core task, it also regularly issues “Safety Advice Sheets” on various topics, designed to be of assistance to users but also to recall and reinforce safety rules and procedures. These clear and concise sheets, complete with illustrations, are easy to display in the appropriate areas. The following safety advice sheets have been issued so far: Other sheets will be published shortly. Suggestions are welcome and should be sent to the SI section of the DGS/SEE Group. Please send enquiries to general-safety-visits.service@cern.ch.

  15. An Ice Sheet Model Validation Framework for the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey R.; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.; hide

    2017-01-01

    We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013, using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin-scale and whole-ice-sheet-scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of less than 1 meter). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate a predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes that have occurred

  16. The Influence of Landscape Morphology on Peatland Dynamics and Carbon Accumulation Inferred from Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) and Peat Core Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loisel, J.; Nolan, J. T.; Yu, Z.; Parkesian, A.; Slater, L. D.

    2010-12-01

    Northern peatlands have potential for strong feedbacks on the climate system through their impact on the global carbon (C) cycle. Since the Last Glacial Maximum, these ecosystems have sequestered about 550 Gt of organic C (Yu et al. 2010, GRL) and have been important sources of methane to the atmosphere. Over this period, peatlands have spread throughout the northern landscape to cover approximately 3% of today’s global land surface. As peatland dynamics are complex and often non-linear, however, patterns of regional peatland area expansion remain speculative, despite the critical role this spatio-temporal aspect plays in Holocene C stock and flux estimates. Using near-surface geophysics and peat core analysis, we show that slope gradient and basin topography exert deterministic controls on peatland lateral expansion and C accumulation. Our study was conducted in a 14,000 year-old sloping peatland complex (62°N, 150°W) whose growth was interrupted for about 1000 years when Mt. Hayes erupted between 4390 and 3430 cal. BP. Peat thickness and subsurface topography were obtained using GPR combined with high-resolution surface elevation data. The continuous, 15 cm-thick tephra layer was clearly visible in the GPR surveys and was used as a chronostratigraphic marker to delineate ‘post-tephra’ peatland dynamics. Radiocarbon dating was performed on post-tephra peat sediments. Results indicate rapid peat re-colonization (taking 10,000 years) under the initial geomorphic conditions (with a slope ≈ 2°). Under the reasonable assumption that post-tephra peatland dynamics were primarily affected by tephra-modified topography, and not by time or climate, we calculated peat C accumulation rates (PCAR) for the past 3000 years using bulk density and depth measurements from several cores with various slopes. We found a positive, exponential relationship between bulk density and slope, which is negatively correlated with peat thickness and PCAR. For example, one core with a

  17. Shape Optimization of Swimming Sheets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkening, J.; Hosoi, A.E.

    2005-03-01

    The swimming behavior of a flexible sheet which moves by propagating deformation waves along its body was first studied by G. I. Taylor in 1951. In addition to being of theoretical interest, this problem serves as a useful model of the locomotion of gastropods and various micro-organisms. Although the mechanics of swimming via wave propagation has been studied extensively, relatively little work has been done to define or describe optimal swimming by this mechanism.We carry out this objective for a sheet that is separated from a rigid substrate by a thin film of viscous Newtonian fluid. Using a lubrication approximation to model the dynamics, we derive the relevant Euler-Lagrange equations to optimize swimming speed and efficiency. The optimization equations are solved numerically using two different schemes: a limited memory BFGS method that uses cubic splines to represent the wave profile, and a multi-shooting Runge-Kutta approach that uses the Levenberg-Marquardt method to vary the parameters of the equations until the constraints are satisfied. The former approach is less efficient but generalizes nicely to the non-lubrication setting. For each optimization problem we obtain a one parameter family of solutions that becomes singular in a self-similar fashion as the parameter approaches a critical value. We explore the validity of the lubrication approximation near this singular limit by monitoring higher order corrections to the zeroth order theory and by comparing the results with finite element solutions of the full Stokes equations.

  18. Energy information sheets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-12-02

    The National Energy Information Center (NEIC), as part of its mission, provides energy information and referral assistance to Federal, State, and local governments, the academic community, business and industrial organizations, and the general public. Written for the general public, the EIA publication Energy Information Sheets was developed to provide information on various aspects of fuel production, prices, consumption and capability. The information contained herein pertains to energy data as of December 1991. Additional information on related subject matter can be found in other EIA publications as referenced at the end of each sheet.

  19. Global ice sheet/RSL simulations using the higher-order Ice Sheet System Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larour, E. Y.; Ivins, E. R.; Adhikari, S.; Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Morlighem, M.

    2017-12-01

    Relative sea-level rise is driven by processes that are intimately linked to the evolution ofglacial areas and ice sheets in particular. So far, most Earth System models capable of projecting theevolution of RSL on decadal to centennial time scales have relied on offline interactions between RSL andice sheets. In particular, grounding line and calving front dynamics have not been modeled in a way that istightly coupled with Elasto-Static Adjustment (ESA) and/or Glacial-Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). Here, we presenta new simulation of the entire Earth System in which both Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are tightly coupledto an RSL model that includes both ESA and GIA at resolutions and time scales compatible with processes suchas grounding line dynamics for Antarctica ice shelves and calving front dynamics for Greenland marine-terminatingglaciers. The simulations rely on the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and show the impact of higher-orderice flow dynamics and coupling feedbacks between ice flow and RSL. We quantify the exact impact of ESA andGIA inclusion on grounding line evolution for large ice shelves such as the Ronne and Ross ice shelves, as well asthe Agasea Embayment ice streams, and demonstate how offline vs online RSL simulations diverge in the long run,and the consequences for predictions of sea-level rise.This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory undera contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere Science Program.

  20. An Overview of Thermal Measurements (IR) at the Summit of Piton de la Fournaise Active Volcano and Inferences on the Structure and Dynamics of its Hydrothermal System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, F.; Peltier, A.; Kowalski, P.; Di Muro, A.; Villeneuve, N.; Ferrazzini, V.; Staudacher, T.

    2017-12-01

    Piton de la Fournaise, located on La Réunion Island in the South East Indian Ocean, is one of the most active basaltic volcanoes (hotspot) of the world with a mean eruption frequency 100×106 m3) on the island, led to the formation of a 400-m-deep, 1000-m-large, funnel-shaped summit caldera. Since then, the floor and inner flanks of this summit depression hosting hot grounds and active fumaroles, are monitored using an infra-red camera device permanently installed on the caldera rim.This thermal dataset constitutes the first opportunity to understand the structure and dynamics of the hydrothermal system and its ability to relay deep-seated heat and mass perturbations. We present in this communication an overview of this thermal datasets focusing on ground/fumaroles temperature evolution during volcanic crisis and rest periods and analyzing correlations with the other permanently acquired data such as the temporal evolution of gas geochemistry (CO2, SO2, H2S), ground deformation and micro-seismic activity. We finally propose a conceptual model of fluid flow architecture within the edifice which paves the way for future quantitative models of hydrothermal heat and mass transfers.

  1. Low post-glacial rebound rates in the Weddell Sea due to Late Holocene ice-sheet readvance.

    OpenAIRE

    Bradley, S.L.; Hindmarsh, R.C.A.; Whitehouse, P.L.; Bentley, M.J.; King, M.A.

    2015-01-01

    Many ice-sheet reconstructions assume monotonic Holocene retreat for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but an increasing number of glaciological observations infer that some portions of the ice sheet may be readvancing, following retreat behind the present-day margin. A readvance in the Weddell Sea region can reconcile two outstanding problems: (i) the present-day widespread occurrence of seemingly stable ice streams grounded on beds that deepen inland; and (ii) the inability of models of glacial...

  2. Ice Sheets & Ice Cores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Troels Bøgeholm

    Since the discovery of the Ice Ages it has been evident that Earth’s climate is liable to undergo dramatic changes. The previous climatic period known as the Last Glacial saw large oscillations in the extent of ice sheets covering the Northern hemisphere. Understanding these oscillations known...

  3. Pseudomonas - Fact Sheet

    OpenAIRE

    Public Health Agency

    2012-01-01

    Fact sheet on Pseudomonas, including:What is Pseudomonas?What infections does it cause?Who is susceptible to pseudomonas infection?How will I know if I have pseudomonas infection?How can Pseudomonas be prevented from spreading?How can I protect myself from Pseudomonas?How is Pseudomonas infection treated?

  4. Ethanol Basics (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-01-01

    Ethanol is a widely-used, domestically-produced renewable fuel made from corn and other plant materials. More than 96% of gasoline sold in the United States contains ethanol. Learn more about this alternative fuel in the Ethanol Basics Fact Sheet, produced by the U.S. Department of Energy's Clean Cities program.

  5. Genetic differentiation and inferred dynamics of a hybrid zone between Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) and California Spotted Owls (S. o. occidentalis) in northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mark P.; Mullins, Tom; Forsman, Eric D.; Haig, Susan M.

    2017-01-01

    Genetic differentiation among Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis) subspecies has been established in prior studies. These investigations also provided evidence for introgression and hybridization among taxa but were limited by a lack of samples from geographic regions where subspecies came into close contact. We analyzed new sets of samples from Northern Spotted Owls (NSO: S. o. caurina) and California Spotted Owls (CSO: S. o. occidentalis) in northern California using mitochondrial DNA sequences (mtDNA) and 10 nuclear microsatellite loci to obtain a clearer depiction of genetic differentiation and hybridization in the region. Our analyses revealed that a NSO population close to the northern edge of the CSO range in northern California (the NSO Contact Zone population) is highly differentiated relative to other NSO populations throughout the remainder of their range. Phylogenetic analyses identified a unique lineage of mtDNA in the NSO Contact Zone, and Bayesian clustering analyses of the microsatellite data identified the Contact Zone as a third distinct population that is differentiated from CSO and NSO found in the remainder of the subspecies' range. Hybridization between NSO and CSO was readily detected in the NSO Contact Zone, with over 50% of individuals showing evidence of hybrid ancestry. Hybridization was also identified among 14% of CSO samples, which were dispersed across the subspecies' range in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The asymmetry of hybridization suggested that the hybrid zone may be dynamic and moving. Although evidence of hybridization existed, we identified no F1 generation hybrid individuals. We instead found evidence for F2 or backcrossed individuals among our samples. The absence of F1 hybrids may indicate that (1) our 10 microsatellites were unable to distinguish hybrid types, (2) primary interactions between subspecies are occurring elsewhere on the landscape, or (3) dispersal between the subspecies' ranges is reduced relative to

  6. Vegetation Dynamics in the Watershed of Salt Pond, Falmouth, Massachusetts in the Aftermath of a Large Paleostorm and Subsequent Wildfire Inferred from Lignin Oxidation Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, M. L.; Blair, N. E.; Donnelly, J. P.; Hawkes, A. D.; Cederberg, J.

    2010-12-01

    Large storms, such as tropical cyclones and nor’easters, are natural threats in the northeastern United States. Extreme storms are particularly destructive to vegetation communities. Large storms may drive changes in vegetation dynamics in the northeastern United States by clearing ecological space that can be repopulated by species better adapted to the present climatic conditions. We analyzed lignin oxidation product (LOP) distributions in sediments deposited before, during, and after the largest storm deposit (~1350 yr BP) in the 1840-year sedimentary record from Salt Pond, Falmouth, MA to investigate the impact of that event on plant community composition. Salt Pond is a meromictic lake with anoxic bottom waters that occupies a kettle basin and is separated from Vineyard Sound (part of the Atlantic Ocean) by a baymouth bar. Sand and coarse silt (>32μm) are deposited in the pond when storm surge height exceeds the height of the barrier (presently ~2m). The sediment core analyzed is located 500m from Vineyard Sound. LOPs change in response to the storm event. Shortly after the storm (gymnosperm tissue relative to sediments deposited before the event. This material is also more degraded suggesting downed material. A second change in LOP distributions occurs in the sedimentary sequence directly following a charcoal-rich layer deposited after the storm and is consistent with a succession of plant communities where non-woody angiosperms are the first plants to colonize, followed by woody gymnosperms, and finally a mixed angiosperm and gymnosperm ecosystem. The change in vegetation inputs to the pond reflects a combination of effects caused by the large storm and a subsequent fire fueled by downed wood. This sequence illustrates that ecosystem composition can be impacted not only by a major event but also secondary responses to the event.

  7. Rubella - Fact Sheet for Parents

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and 4 through 6 years Fact Sheet for Parents Color [2 pages] Español: Rubéola The best way ... according to the recommended schedule. Fact Sheets for Parents Diseases and the Vaccines that Prevent Them Chickenpox ...

  8. Importance of Nisar Mission for Ice Sheet Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rignot, E. J.; Scheuchl, B.; Mouginot, J.; Morlighem, M.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation addresses how the synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) satellite mission under discussion between NASA and ISRO - entitled NISAR - will help us better understand and project the evolution of ice sheets and glaciers in a changing climate. NISAR is a dedicated L-band interferometry mission that will document changes in ice flow dynamics, grounding line positions and other critical boundaries over the lifetime of its mission. Changes in ice sheet dynamics represent by far the largest uncertainty in sea level projections. NISAR will better constrain critical boundaries of ice sheets at the base (basal friction) and at the seaward margins (ice melt rate) by providing the first set of continuous, systematic and comprehensive observations of ice sheet dynamics that will help us better understand ice sheets and glaciers and enable massive data assimilation in numerical ice sheet models. NISAR will contribute observations of areas of irreversible retreat taking place in Greenland and Antarctica, provide detailed time series of glacier velocities throughout entire seasonal cycles, document grounding line dynamics on weekly time scales, enable estimations of temporal and spatial changes in basal friction during glacial retreat; it will also in combination with other data help us map the bed topography of entire ice sheets at a high spatial resolution, document changes in ice shelf melt rate around the periphery of the continents, and provide a first systematic 3D vector mapping of ice velocity. NISAR will constitute a much needed warning system for ice sheet and ice shelf changes, it will document fundamental processes poorly observed in the past (e.g. calving, ice shelf melt, grounding line dynamics) and enable robust data assimilation to play a critical role in reducing uncertainties of coupled numerical models of ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions. This work was performed at UCI and JPL under a contract with NASA.

  9. Making Type Inference Practical

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Oxhøj, Nicholas; Palsberg, Jens

    1992-01-01

    We present the implementation of a type inference algorithm for untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. The algorithm significantly improves our previous one, presented at OOPSLA'91, since it can handle collection classes, such as List, in a useful way. A......-oriented languages practical....

  10. Type Inference with Inequalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff

    1991-01-01

    of (monotonic) inequalities on the types of variables and expressions. A general result about systems of inequalities over semilattices yields a solvable form. We distinguish between deciding typability (the existence of solutions) and type inference (the computation of a minimal solution). In our case, both...

  11. Inference as Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane

    2007-01-01

    Inference, or decision making, is seen in curriculum documents as the final step in a statistical investigation. For a formal statistical enquiry this may be associated with sophisticated tests involving probability distributions. For young students without the mathematical background to perform such tests, it is still possible to draw informal…

  12. Vegetation, climate and fire-dynamics in East Africa inferred from the Maundi crater pollen record from Mt Kilimanjaro during the last glacial-interglacial cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüler, Lisa; Hemp, Andreas; Zech, Wolfgang; Behling, Hermann

    2012-04-01

    The pollen, charcoal and sedimentological record from the Maundi crater, located at 2780 m elevation on the south-eastern slope of Mt Kilimanjaro, is one of the longest terrestrial records in equatorial East Africa, giving an interesting insight into the vegetation and climate dynamics back to the early last Glacial period. Our sediment record has a reliable chronology until 42 ka BP. An extrapolation of the age-depth model, as well as matching with other palaeo-records from tropical East Africa, suggest a total age of about 90 ka BP at the bottom of the record. During the last Glacial the distribution as well as the composition of the vegetation belts classified as colline savanna, submontane woodland, montane forest, ericaceous belt, and alpine vegetation changed. The early last Glacial is characterized by high amounts of Poaceae and Asteraceae pollen suggesting a climatically dry but stable phase. Based on the absence of pollen grains in samples deposited around 70 ka BP, we assume the occurrence of distinct drought periods. During the pre-LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) a higher taxa diversity of the ericaceous and montane zone is recorded and suggests a spread of forest and shrub vegetation, thus indicating a more humid period. The taxa diversity increases steadily during the recorded time span. The decent of vegetation zones indicate dry and cold conditions during the LGM and seem to have been detrimental for many taxa, especially those of the forest vegetation; however, the early last Glacial seems to have been markedly drier than the LGM. The reappearance of most of the taxa (most importantly Alchemilla, Araliaceae, Dodonea, Hagenia, Ilex, Myrsine, Moraceae, Piperaceae) during the deglacial and Holocene period suggest a shift into humid conditions. An increase in ferns and the decrease in grasses during the Holocene also indicate increasing humidity. Fire played an important role in controlling the development and elevation of the ericaceous zone and the tree

  13. Magnetosphere dynamics during the 14 November 2012 storm inferred from TWINS, AMPERE, Van Allen Probes, and BATS-R-US-CRCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzulukova, Natalia; Goldstein, Jerry; Fok, Mei-Ching; Glocer, Alex; Valek, Phil; McComas, David; Korth, Haje; Anderson, Brian

    2018-01-01

    During the 14 November 2012 geomagnetic storm, the Van Allen Probes spacecraft observed a number of sharp decreases (dropouts) in particle fluxes for ions and electrons of different energies. In this paper, we investigate the global magnetosphere dynamics and magnetosphere-ionosphere (M-I) coupling during the dropout events using multipoint measurements by Van Allen Probes, TWINS, and AMPERE together with the output of the two-way coupled global BATS-R-US-CRCM model. We find different behavior for two pairs of dropouts. For one pair, the same pattern was repeated: (1) weak nightside Region 1 and 2 Birkeland currents before and during the dropout; (2) intensification of Region 2 currents after the dropout; and (3) a particle injection detected by TWINS after the dropout. The model predicted similar behavior of Birkeland currents. TWINS low-altitude emissions demonstrated high variability during these intervals, indicating high geomagnetic activity in the near-Earth tail region. For the second pair of dropouts, the structure of both Birkeland currents and ENA emissions was relatively stable. The model also showed quasi-stationary behavior of Birkeland currents and simulated ENA emissions with gradual ring current buildup. We confirm that the first pair of dropouts was caused by large-scale motions of the OCB (open-closed boundary) during substorm activity. We show the new result that this OCB motion was associated with global changes in Birkeland (M-I coupling) currents and strong modulation of low-altitude ion precipitation. The second pair of dropouts is the result of smaller OCB disturbances not related to magnetospheric substorms. The local observations of the first pair of dropouts result from a global magnetospheric reconfiguration, which is manifested by ion injections and enhanced ion precipitation detected by TWINS and changes in the structure of Birkeland currents detected by AMPERE. This study demonstrates that multipoint measurements along with the global

  14. Long-term vegetation, climate and ocean dynamics inferred from a 73,500 years old marine sediment core (GeoB2107-3) off southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Fang; Zonneveld, Karin A. F.; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; Arz, Helge W.; Pätzold, Jürgen; Behling, Hermann

    2017-09-01

    Long-term changes in vegetation and climate of southern Brazil, as well as ocean dynamics of the adjacent South Atlantic, were studied by analyses of pollen, spores and organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts) in marine sediment core GeoB2107-3 collected offshore southern Brazil covering the last 73.5 cal kyr BP. The pollen record indicates that grasslands were much more frequent in the landscapes of southern Brazil during the last glacial period if compared to the late Holocene, reflecting relatively colder and/or less humid climatic conditions. Patches of forest occurred in the lowlands and probably also on the exposed continental shelf that was mainly covered by salt marshes. Interestingly, drought-susceptible Araucaria trees were frequent in the highlands (with a similar abundance as during the late Holocene) until 65 cal kyr BP, but were rare during the following glacial period. Atlantic rainforest was present in the northern lowlands of southern Brazil during the recorded last glacial period, but was strongly reduced from 38.5 until 13.0 cal kyr BP. The reduction was probably controlled by colder and/or less humid climatic conditions. Atlantic rainforest expanded to the south since the Lateglacial period, while Araucaria forests advanced in the highlands only during the late Holocene. Dinocysts data indicate that the Brazil Current (BC) with its warm, salty and nutrient-poor waters influenced the study area throughout the investigated period. However, variations in the proportion of dinocyst taxa indicating an eutrophic environment reflect the input of nutrients transported mainly by the Brazilian Coastal Current (BCC) and partly discharged by the Rio Itajaí (the major river closest to the core site). This was strongly related to changes in sea level. A stronger influence of the BCC with nutrient rich waters occurred during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 and in particular during the late MIS 3 and MIS 2 under low sea level. Evidence of Nothofagus pollen

  15. The Greenland Ice Sheet Monitoring Network (GLISN)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, K. R.; Beaudoin, B. C.; Butler, R.; Clinton, J. F.; Dahl-Jensen, T.; Ekstrom, G.; Giardini, D.; Govoni, A.; Hanka, W.; Kanao, M.; Larsen, T.; Lasocki, S.; McCormack, D. A.; Mykkeltveit, S.; Nettles, M.; Agostinetti, N. P.; Stutzmann, E.; Tsuboi, S.; Voss, P.

    2010-12-01

    The GreenLand Ice Sheet monitoring Network (GLISN) is an international, broadband seismic capability for Greenland, being installed and implemented through the collaboration of Denmark, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, Norway, Poland, Switzerland, and USA. GLISN is a real-time sensor array of seismic stations to enhance and upgrade the performance of the sparse Greenland seismic infrastructure for detecting, locating, and characterizing glacial earthquakes and other cryo-seismic phenomena, and contributing to our understanding of Ice Sheet dynamics. Complementing data from satellites, geodesy, and other sources, and in concert with these technologies, GLISN will provide a powerful tool for detecting change, and will advance new frontiers of research in the glacial systems; the underlying geological and geophysical processes affecting the Greenland Ice Sheet; interactions between oceans, climate, and the cryosphere; and other multidisciplinary areas of interest to geoscience and climate dynamics. The glacial processes that induce seismic events (internal deformation, sliding at the base, disintegration at the calving front, drainage of supra-glacial lakes) are all integral to the overall dynamics of glaciers, and seismic observations of glaciers therefore provide a quantitative means for monitoring changes in their behavior over time. Long-term seismic monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet will contribute to identifying possible unsuspected mechanisms and metrics relevant to ice sheet collapse, and will provide new constraints on Ice Sheet dynamic processes and their potential roles in sea-level rise during the coming decades. GLISN will provide a new, fiducial reference network in and around Greenland for monitoring these phenomena in real-time, and for the broad seismological study of Earth and earthquakes. The 2010 summer field season saw the installation or upgrade of 9 stations in the GLISN network. Sites visited under the GLISN project include Station Nord (NOR

  16. Active inference and robot control: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pio-Lopez, Léo; Nizard, Ange; Friston, Karl; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2016-09-01

    Active inference is a general framework for perception and action that is gaining prominence in computational and systems neuroscience but is less known outside these fields. Here, we discuss a proof-of-principle implementation of the active inference scheme for the control or the 7-DoF arm of a (simulated) PR2 robot. By manipulating visual and proprioceptive noise levels, we show under which conditions robot control under the active inference scheme is accurate. Besides accurate control, our analysis of the internal system dynamics (e.g. the dynamics of the hidden states that are inferred during the inference) sheds light on key aspects of the framework such as the quintessentially multimodal nature of control and the differential roles of proprioception and vision. In the discussion, we consider the potential importance of being able to implement active inference in robots. In particular, we briefly review the opportunities for modelling psychophysiological phenomena such as sensory attenuation and related failures of gain control, of the sort seen in Parkinson's disease. We also consider the fundamental difference between active inference and optimal control formulations, showing that in the former the heavy lifting shifts from solving a dynamical inverse problem to creating deep forward or generative models with dynamics, whose attracting sets prescribe desired behaviours. © 2016 The Authors.

  17. Single sheet iron oxides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yin, Zhou

    activity. LDH single sheets have been reported to be effective sorbents, catalysts in electrochemical and photochemical reactions, and building thin films together with other nanomaterials for designing new functionalities. Here we focus on the delamination of FeII-FeIII LDHs into single sheet iron oxide...... was rapid compared to other iron oxides, reaching equilibrium within 60 minutes. Arsenic sorption and acid-base titration data could be successfully described with a 1pk Basic Stern Model (BSM). The point of zero charge was around 8. The intrinsic surface complexation equilibrium constants (log K...... became abundant at low pH. (3) Electrochemical reduction of chlorinated compounds using an SSI modified electrode. Here, the electrochemical reactivity of SSIs coated on indium tin oxide coated glass electrodes was investigated. Iron on the SSI modified electrode showed a typical Cyclic Voltammetry...

  18. Film sheet cassette

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    A novel film sheet cassette is described for handling CAT photographic films under daylight conditions and facilitating their imaging. A detailed description of the design and operation of the cassette is given together with appropriate illustrations. The resulting cassette is a low-cost unit which is easily constructed and yet provides a sure light-tight seal for the interior contents of the cassette. The individual resilient fingers on the light-trap permit the ready removal of the slide plate for taking pictures. The stippled, non-electrostatic surface of the pressure plate ensures an air layer and free slidability of the film for removal and withdrawal of the film sheet. The advantage of the daylight system is that a darkroom need not be used for inserting and removing the film in and out of the cassette resulting in a considerable time saving. (U.K.)

  19. Bayesian Inversion for Large Scale Antarctic Ice Sheet Flow

    KAUST Repository

    Ghattas, Omar

    2015-01-07

    The flow of ice from the interior of polar ice sheets is the primary contributor to projected sea level rise. One of the main difficulties faced in modeling ice sheet flow is the uncertain spatially-varying Robin boundary condition that describes the resistance to sliding at the base of the ice. Satellite observations of the surface ice flow velocity, along with a model of ice as a creeping incompressible shear-thinning fluid, can be used to infer this uncertain basal boundary condition. We cast this ill-posed inverse problem in the framework of Bayesian inference, which allows us to infer not only the basal sliding parameters, but also the associated uncertainty. To overcome the prohibitive nature of Bayesian methods for large-scale inverse problems, we exploit the fact that, despite the large size of observational data, they typically provide only sparse information on model parameters. We show results for Bayesian inversion of the basal sliding parameter field for the full Antarctic continent, and demonstrate that the work required to solve the inverse problem, measured in number of forward (and adjoint) ice sheet model solves, is independent of the parameter and data dimensions

  20. Irony as Inferred Contradiction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Лаура Альба-Хуес

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available “If we acknowledge the existence of an Irony Principle, we should also acknowledge another ‘higher-order principle’ which has the opposite effect. While irony is an apparently friendly way of being offensive (mock politeness, the type of verbal behaviour known as ‘banter’ is an offensive way of being friendly (mock impoliteness.” Geoffrey Leech, Principles of Pragmatics (1983: 144 In this work I present some theoretical considerations about what I consider to be a permanent and ever-present feature of verbal irony, namely, inferred contradiction , which has to be distinguished from plain, direct (non-inferred contradiction as well as from indirect negation , for a contradiction which is directly expressed cannot be interpreted as ironical (since it lacks a crucial component: inference, and an indirect negation may or may not be ironic (depending on the situation, and thus cannot be considered a permanent feature of the phenomenon. In spite of the fact that many scholars have proposed different theories in order to capture the essence of this intricate and complex phenomenon, not all of them have managed to find a feature or characteristic that applies to or is found in all possible occurrences of irony. I briefly discuss the tenets of some of the best-known of these theories, namely the Classical theories (Socrates, Cicero, Quintilian, the Echoic-Mention Theory (later Echoic Theory, the Echoic Reminder Theory, the Pretence Theory and the Relevant Inappropriateness Theory, trying to show that in all the types of irony emerging from these proposals (e.g. echoic irony, pretence irony, etc. it can be observed that the irony is triggered by inferred contradiction . The one theory that according to my view and knowledge- seems to capture its whole essence to date is Attardo’s (2000 Relevant Inappropriateness Theory, to whose proposal I adhere, but I argue at the same time that inferred contradiction is another feature of irony (which

  1. Biomolecular Science (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-04-01

    A brief fact sheet about NREL Photobiology and Biomolecular Science. The research goal of NREL's Biomolecular Science is to enable cost-competitive advanced lignocellulosic biofuels production by understanding the science critical for overcoming biomass recalcitrance and developing new product and product intermediate pathways. NREL's Photobiology focuses on understanding the capture of solar energy in photosynthetic systems and its use in converting carbon dioxide and water directly into hydrogen and advanced biofuels.

  2. Information sheets on energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    These sheets, presented by the Cea, bring some information, in the energy domain, on the following topics: the world energy demand and the energy policy in France and in Europe, the part of the nuclear power in the energy of the future, the greenhouse gases emissions and the fight against the greenhouse effect, the carbon dioxide storage cost and the hydrogen economy. (A.L.B.)

  3. Causal inference in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

  4. Stochastic processes inference theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Malempati M

    2014-01-01

    This is the revised and enlarged 2nd edition of the authors’ original text, which was intended to be a modest complement to Grenander's fundamental memoir on stochastic processes and related inference theory. The present volume gives a substantial account of regression analysis, both for stochastic processes and measures, and includes recent material on Ridge regression with some unexpected applications, for example in econometrics. The first three chapters can be used for a quarter or semester graduate course on inference on stochastic processes. The remaining chapters provide more advanced material on stochastic analysis suitable for graduate seminars and discussions, leading to dissertation or research work. In general, the book will be of interest to researchers in probability theory, mathematical statistics and electrical and information theory.

  5. Multiple Instance Fuzzy Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-02

    and learn the fuzzy inference system’s parameters [24, 25]. In this later technique, supervised and unsupervised learning algorithms are devised to...algorithm ( unsupervised learning ) can be used to identify local contexts of the input space, and a linear classifier (supervised learning ) can be used...instance level (patch-level) labels and would require the image to be correctly segmented and labeled prior to learning . Figure 1.1: Example of an image

  6. INFERENCE BUILDING BLOCKS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-02-15

    whether unsupervised (such as clustering) or supervised (such as Naive Bayes). We observed the following advantages: 1 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE...section, we explain our research in relation to DARPA’s Probabilistic Programming for Advancing Machine Learning (PPAML) program and other approaches...develop machine- learning applications by combining probabilistic models and inference techniques. On one hand, a probabilistic model is a mathematical

  7. Active inference and learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl; FitzGerald, Thomas; Rigoli, Francesco; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; O Doherty, John; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2016-09-01

    This paper offers an active inference account of choice behaviour and learning. It focuses on the distinction between goal-directed and habitual behaviour and how they contextualise each other. We show that habits emerge naturally (and autodidactically) from sequential policy optimisation when agents are equipped with state-action policies. In active inference, behaviour has explorative (epistemic) and exploitative (pragmatic) aspects that are sensitive to ambiguity and risk respectively, where epistemic (ambiguity-resolving) behaviour enables pragmatic (reward-seeking) behaviour and the subsequent emergence of habits. Although goal-directed and habitual policies are usually associated with model-based and model-free schemes, we find the more important distinction is between belief-free and belief-based schemes. The underlying (variational) belief updating provides a comprehensive (if metaphorical) process theory for several phenomena, including the transfer of dopamine responses, reversal learning, habit formation and devaluation. Finally, we show that active inference reduces to a classical (Bellman) scheme, in the absence of ambiguity. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Continuous Integrated Invariant Inference Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed project will develop a new technique for invariant inference and embed this and other current invariant inference and checking techniques in an...

  9. Multimodel inference and adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehme, S.E.; Powell, L.A.; Allen, Craig R.

    2011-01-01

    Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

  10. Dense sheet Z-pinches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tetsu, Miyamoto

    1999-01-01

    The steady state and quasi-steady processes of infinite- and finite-width sheet z-pinches are studied. The relations corresponding to the Bennett relation and Pease-Braginskii current of cylindrical fiber z-pinches depend on a geometrical factor in the sheet z-pinches. The finite-width sheet z-pinch is approximated by a segment of infinite-width sheet z-pinch, if it is wide enough, and corresponds to a number of (width/thickness) times fiber z-pinch plasmas of the diameter that equals the sheet thickness. If the sheet current equals this number times the fiber current, the plasma created in the sheet z-pinches is as dense as in the fiber z-pinches. The total energy of plasma and magnetic field per unit mass is approximately equal in both pinches. Quasi-static transient processes are different in several aspects from the fiber z-pinch. No radiation collapse occurs in the sheet z-pinch. The stability is improved in the sheet z-pinches. The fusion criterions and the experimental arrangements to produce the sheet z-pinches are also discussed. (author)

  11. Kinetic Studies of Thin Current Sheets at Magnetosheath Jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, E.; Vaivads, A.; Khotyaintsev, Y. V.; Graham, D. B.; Yordanova, E.; Hietala, H.; Markidis, S.; Giles, B. L.; Andre, M.; Russell, C. T.; Le Contel, O.; Burch, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    In near-Earth space one of the most turbulent plasma environments is the magnetosheath (MSH) downstream of the quasi-parallel shock. The particle acceleration and plasma thermalization processes there are still not fully understood. Regions of strong localized currents are believed to play a key role in those processes. The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission has sufficiently high cadence to study these processes in detail. We present details of studies of two different events that contain strong current regions inside the MSH downstream of the quasi-parallel shock. In both cases the shape of the current region is in the form of a sheet, however they show internal 3D structure on the scale of the spacecraft separation (15 and 20 km, respectively). Both current sheets have a normal magnetic field component different from zero indicating that the regions at the different sides of the current sheets are magnetically connected. Both current sheets are boundaries between two different plasma regions. Furthermore, both current sheets are observed at MSH jets. These jets are characterized by localized dynamic pressure being larger than the solar wind dynamic pressure. One current sheet does not seem to be reconnecting while the other shows reconnection signatures. Inside the non-reconnecting current sheet we observe locally accelerated electron beams along the magnetic field. At energies above the beam energy we observe a loss cone consistent with part of the hot MSH-like electrons escaping into the colder solar wind-like plasma. This suggests that the acceleration process within this current sheet is similar to the one that occurs at the bow shock, where electron beams and loss cones are also observed. Therefore, we conclude that electron beams observed in the MSH do not have to originate from the bow shock, but can also be generated locally inside the MSH. The reconnecting current sheet also shows signs of thermalization and electron acceleration processes that are

  12. Reinforcement learning or active inference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl J; Daunizeau, Jean; Kiebel, Stefan J

    2009-07-29

    This paper questions the need for reinforcement learning or control theory when optimising behaviour. We show that it is fairly simple to teach an agent complicated and adaptive behaviours using a free-energy formulation of perception. In this formulation, agents adjust their internal states and sampling of the environment to minimize their free-energy. Such agents learn causal structure in the environment and sample it in an adaptive and self-supervised fashion. This results in behavioural policies that reproduce those optimised by reinforcement learning and dynamic programming. Critically, we do not need to invoke the notion of reward, value or utility. We illustrate these points by solving a benchmark problem in dynamic programming; namely the mountain-car problem, using active perception or inference under the free-energy principle. The ensuing proof-of-concept may be important because the free-energy formulation furnishes a unified account of both action and perception and may speak to a reappraisal of the role of dopamine in the brain.

  13. Reinforcement learning or active inference?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl J Friston

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper questions the need for reinforcement learning or control theory when optimising behaviour. We show that it is fairly simple to teach an agent complicated and adaptive behaviours using a free-energy formulation of perception. In this formulation, agents adjust their internal states and sampling of the environment to minimize their free-energy. Such agents learn causal structure in the environment and sample it in an adaptive and self-supervised fashion. This results in behavioural policies that reproduce those optimised by reinforcement learning and dynamic programming. Critically, we do not need to invoke the notion of reward, value or utility. We illustrate these points by solving a benchmark problem in dynamic programming; namely the mountain-car problem, using active perception or inference under the free-energy principle. The ensuing proof-of-concept may be important because the free-energy formulation furnishes a unified account of both action and perception and may speak to a reappraisal of the role of dopamine in the brain.

  14. Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingham, D J; Shepherd, A; Muir, A; Marshall, G J

    2006-07-15

    The Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise has long been uncertain. While regional variability in ice dynamics has been revealed, a picture of mass changes throughout the continental ice sheet is lacking. Here, we use satellite radar altimetry to measure the elevation change of 72% of the grounded ice sheet during the period 1992-2003. Depending on the density of the snow giving rise to the observed elevation fluctuations, the ice sheet mass trend falls in the range -5-+85Gtyr-1. We find that data from climate model reanalyses are not able to characterise the contemporary snowfall fluctuation with useful accuracy and our best estimate of the overall mass trend-growth of 27+/-29Gtyr-1-is based on an assessment of the expected snowfall variability. Mass gains from accumulating snow, particularly on the Antarctic Peninsula and within East Antarctica, exceed the ice dynamic mass loss from West Antarctica. The result exacerbates the difficulty of explaining twentieth century sea-level rise.

  15. Impact processes, permafrost dynamics, and climate and environmental variability in the terrestrial Arctic as inferred from the unique 3.6 Myr record of Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russia - A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wennrich, Volker; Andreev, Andrei A.; Tarasov, Pavel E.; Fedorov, Grigory; Zhao, Wenwei; Gebhardt, Catalina A.; Meyer-Jacob, Carsten; Snyder, Jeffrey A.; Nowaczyk, Norbert R.; Schwamborn, Georg; Chapligin, Bernhard; Anderson, Patricia M.; Lozhkin, Anatoly V.; Minyuk, Pavel S.; Koeberl, Christian; Melles, Martin

    2016-09-01

    Lake El'gygytgyn in Far East Russia is a 3.6 Myr old impact crater lake. Located in an area that has never been affected by Cenozoic glaciations nor desiccation, the unique sediment record of the lake represents the longest continuous sediment archive of the terrestrial Arctic. The surrounding crater is the only impact structure on Earth developed in mostly acid volcanic rocks. Recent studies on the impactite, permafrost, and sediment sequences recovered within the framework of the ICDP "El'gygytgyn Drilling Project" and multiple pre-site surveys yielded new insight into the bedrock origin and cratering processes as well as permafrost dynamics and the climate and environmental history of the terrestrial Arctic back to the mid-Pliocene. Results from the impact rock section recovered during the deep drilling clearly confirm the impact genesis of the El'gygytgyn crater, but indicate an only very reduced fallback impactite sequence without larger coherent melt bodies. Isotope and element data of impact melt samples indicate a F-type asteroid of mixed composition or an ordinary chondrite as the likely impactor. The impact event caused a long-lasting hydrothermal activity in the crater that is assumed to have persisted for c. 300 kyr. Geochemical and microbial analyses of the permafrost core indicate a subaquatic formation of the lower part during lake-level highstand, but a subaerial genesis of the upper part after a lake-level drop after the Allerød. The isotope signal and ion compositions of ground ice is overprinted by several thaw-freeze cycles due to variations in the talik underneath the lake. Modeling results suggest a modern permafrost thickness in the crater of c. 340 m, and further confirm a pervasive character of the talik below Lake El'gygytgyn. The lake sediment sequences shed new leight into the Pliocene and Pleistocene climate and environmental evolution of the Arctic. During the mid-Pliocene, significantly warmer and wetter climatic conditions in

  16. The state of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Sebastian Bjerregaard

    IS and the paleo-temperature reconstructions retrieved from ice cores.The dynamical firn model developed in this thesis explains13 % of the observed volume change of the GrIS from 2003-2008, without contributing to the global sea-level rise. This emphasizes the need for well constraint firn-compaction models. Here...... compaction on ice sheet scales. The modeling objectives are multiple and aim at estimating the contribution from the firn to the observed volume change of the GrIS and to the diffusion of stable water isotopes. The firn modeling then provides crucial information on total mass balance of the Gr......-sheet configurations formed by the variation of both internal-model parameters and external climate forcing. To investigate the importance of the validation, a multi-metric validation approach is applied to the ensemble members. The validation shows that the commonly used validation measures, such as the total ice...

  17. Nonparametric statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Gibbons, Jean Dickinson

    2010-01-01

    Overall, this remains a very fine book suitable for a graduate-level course in nonparametric statistics. I recommend it for all people interested in learning the basic ideas of nonparametric statistical inference.-Eugenia Stoimenova, Journal of Applied Statistics, June 2012… one of the best books available for a graduate (or advanced undergraduate) text for a theory course on nonparametric statistics. … a very well-written and organized book on nonparametric statistics, especially useful and recommended for teachers and graduate students.-Biometrics, 67, September 2011This excellently presente

  18. Nanotechnology and statistical inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesely, Sara; Vesely, Leonardo; Vesely, Alessandro

    2017-08-01

    We discuss some problems that arise when applying statistical inference to data with the aim of disclosing new func-tionalities. A predictive model analyzes the data taken from experiments on a specific material to assess the likelihood that another product, with similar structure and properties, will exhibit the same functionality. It doesn't have much predictive power if vari-ability occurs as a consequence of a specific, non-linear behavior. We exemplify our discussion on some experiments with biased dice.

  19. Generic patch inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper; Lawall, Julia

    2010-01-01

    A key issue in maintaining Linux device drivers is the need to keep them up to date with respect to evolutions in Linux internal libraries. Currently, there is little tool support for performing and documenting such changes. In this paper we present a tool, spdiff, that identifies common changes...... developers can use it to extract an abstract representation of the set of changes that others have made. Our experiments on recent changes in Linux show that the inferred generic patches are more concise than the corresponding patches found in commits to the Linux source tree while being safe with respect...

  20. Foundations of Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin H. Knuth

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a simple and clear foundation for finite inference that unites and significantly extends the approaches of Kolmogorov and Cox. Our approach is based on quantifying lattices of logical statements in a way that satisfies general lattice symmetries. With other applications such as measure theory in mind, our derivations assume minimal symmetries, relying on neither negation nor continuity nor differentiability. Each relevant symmetry corresponds to an axiom of quantification, and these axioms are used to derive a unique set of quantifying rules that form the familiar probability calculus. We also derive a unique quantification of divergence, entropy and information.

  1. Experiments on sheet metal shearing

    OpenAIRE

    Gustafsson, Emil

    2013-01-01

    Within the sheet metal industry, different shear cutting technologies are commonly used in several processing steps, e.g. in cut to length lines, slitting lines, end cropping etc. Shearing has speed and cost advantages over competing cutting methods like laser and plasma cutting, but involves large forces on the equipment and large strains in the sheet material.Numerical models to predict forces and sheared edge geometry for different sheet metal grades and different shear parameter set-ups a...

  2. Inferring horizontal gene transfer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt Ravenhall

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Horizontal or Lateral Gene Transfer (HGT or LGT is the transmission of portions of genomic DNA between organisms through a process decoupled from vertical inheritance. In the presence of HGT events, different fragments of the genome are the result of different evolutionary histories. This can therefore complicate the investigations of evolutionary relatedness of lineages and species. Also, as HGT can bring into genomes radically different genotypes from distant lineages, or even new genes bearing new functions, it is a major source of phenotypic innovation and a mechanism of niche adaptation. For example, of particular relevance to human health is the lateral transfer of antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity determinants, leading to the emergence of pathogenic lineages. Computational identification of HGT events relies upon the investigation of sequence composition or evolutionary history of genes. Sequence composition-based ("parametric" methods search for deviations from the genomic average, whereas evolutionary history-based ("phylogenetic" approaches identify genes whose evolutionary history significantly differs from that of the host species. The evaluation and benchmarking of HGT inference methods typically rely upon simulated genomes, for which the true history is known. On real data, different methods tend to infer different HGT events, and as a result it can be difficult to ascertain all but simple and clear-cut HGT events.

  3. Current-sheet formation in incompressible electron magnetohydrodynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruban, Victor P.

    2002-01-01

    The nonlinear dynamics of axisymmetric, as well as helical, frozen-in vortex structures is investigated by the Hamiltonian method in the framework of ideal incompressible electron magnetohydrodynamics. For description of current-sheet formation from a smooth initial magnetic field, local and nonl......The nonlinear dynamics of axisymmetric, as well as helical, frozen-in vortex structures is investigated by the Hamiltonian method in the framework of ideal incompressible electron magnetohydrodynamics. For description of current-sheet formation from a smooth initial magnetic field, local...... and nonlocal nonlinear approximations are introduced and partially analyzed that are generalizations of the previously known exactly solvable local model neglecting electron inertia....

  4. M Theory from World-Sheet Defects in Liouville String

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, Jonathan Richard; Nanopoulos, Dimitri V; Ellis, John

    1997-01-01

    We have argued previously that black holes may be represented in a D-brane approach by monopole and vortex defects in a sine-Gordon field theory model of Liouville dynamics on the world sheet. Supersymmetrizing this sine-Gordon system, we find critical behaviour in 11 dimensions, due to defect condensation that is the world-sheet analogue of D-brane condensation around an extra space-time dimension in M theory. This supersymmetric description of Liouville dynamics has a natural embedding within a 12-dimensional framework suggestive of F theory.

  5. Revisiting the curvature cancellation in forced thin sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jin; Witten, Thomas

    2011-03-01

    We revisit the numerically observed spontaneous vanishing of mean curvature on a developable cone or ``d-cone'' made by pushing a thin elastic sheet into a circular container. The deflection of the d-cone is the distance by which the sheet is pushed into the container. We investigate the ratio of the two principal curvatures versus sheet thickness h over a wider dynamic range than was used previously, holding the deflection and radius fixed. Instead of tending towards 1 as suggested by previous work, we find that the ratio scales as h 1 / 3 . Scaling arguments and geometric variants support this h 1 / 3 finding. Thus the mean curvature does not vanish for very thin sheets as previously claimed. Supported by NSF award DMR 0820054.

  6. Nonparaxial Bessel and Bessel-Gauss pincers light-sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitri, F. G.

    2017-01-01

    Nonparaxial optical Bessel and Bessel-Gauss pincers optical-sheets are introduced based upon the angular spectrum decomposition in plane waves. The angular spectrum function and the beam-shape coefficients are expressed by means of improper integrals computed numerically. The radiated component of the electric field is also evaluated, displaying unique features of the nonparaxial Bessel pincers light-sheets. This new type of auto-focusing light-sheets finds potential applications in the development of novel methods in optical light-sheet tweezers for particle manipulation in opto-fluidics, particle sizing and imaging. Numerical predictions for the scattering, radiation force and torque, and particle dynamics also benefit from the developed beam solution.

  7. An algebra-based method for inferring gene regulatory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vera-Licona, Paola; Jarrah, Abdul; Garcia-Puente, Luis David; McGee, John; Laubenbacher, Reinhard

    2014-03-26

    The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental observations is at the heart of systems biology. This includes the inference of both the network topology and its dynamics. While there are many algorithms available to infer the network topology from experimental data, less emphasis has been placed on methods that infer network dynamics. Furthermore, since the network inference problem is typically underdetermined, it is essential to have the option of incorporating into the inference process, prior knowledge about the network, along with an effective description of the search space of dynamic models. Finally, it is also important to have an understanding of how a given inference method is affected by experimental and other noise in the data used. This paper contains a novel inference algorithm using the algebraic framework of Boolean polynomial dynamical systems (BPDS), meeting all these requirements. The algorithm takes as input time series data, including those from network perturbations, such as knock-out mutant strains and RNAi experiments. It allows for the incorporation of prior biological knowledge while being robust to significant levels of noise in the data used for inference. It uses an evolutionary algorithm for local optimization with an encoding of the mathematical models as BPDS. The BPDS framework allows an effective representation of the search space for algebraic dynamic models that improves computational performance. The algorithm is validated with both simulated and experimental microarray expression profile data. Robustness to noise is tested using a published mathematical model of the segment polarity gene network in Drosophila melanogaster. Benchmarking of the algorithm is done by comparison with a spectrum of state-of-the-art network inference methods on data from the synthetic IRMA network to demonstrate that our method has good precision and recall for the network reconstruction task, while also predicting several of the

  8. Soft Costs Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-05-01

    This fact sheet is an overview of the systems integration subprogram at the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative. Soft costs can vary significantly as a result of a fragmented energy marketplace. In the U.S., there are 18,000 jurisdictions and 3,000 utilities with different rules and regulations for how to go solar. The same solar equipment may vary widely in its final installation price due to process and market variations across jurisdictions, creating barriers to rapid industry growth. SunShot supports the development of innovative solutions that enable communities to build their local economies and establish clean energy initiatives that meet their needs, while at the same time creating sustainable solar market conditions.

  9. Systems Integration Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-06-01

    This fact sheet is an overview of the Systems Integration subprogram at the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative. The Systems Integration subprogram enables the widespread deployment of safe, reliable, and cost-effective solar energy technologies by addressing the associated technical and non-technical challenges. These include timely and cost-effective interconnection procedures, optimal system planning, accurate prediction of solar resources, monitoring and control of solar power, maintaining grid reliability and stability, and many more. To address the challenges associated with interconnecting and integrating hundreds of gigawatts of solar power onto the electricity grid, the Systems Integration program funds research, development, and demonstration projects in four broad, interrelated focus areas: grid performance and reliability, dispatchability, power electronics, and communications.

  10. Photovoltaics Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-02-01

    This fact sheet is an overview of the Photovoltaics (PV) subprogram at the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Solar Energy Technologies Office works with industry, academia, national laboratories, and other government agencies to advance solar PV, which is the direct conversion of sunlight into electricity by a semiconductor, in support of the goals of the SunShot Initiative. SunShot supports research and development to aggressively advance PV technology by improving efficiency and reliability and lowering manufacturing costs. SunShot’s PV portfolio spans work from early-stage solar cell research through technology commercialization, including work on materials, processes, and device structure and characterization techniques.

  11. Theoretical Predictions of Freestanding Honeycomb Sheets of Cadmium Chalcogenides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Jia [ORNL; Huang, Jingsong [ORNL; Sumpter, Bobby G [ORNL; Kent, Paul R [ORNL; Xie, Yu [ORNL; Terrones Maldonado, Humberto [ORNL; Smith, Sean C [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Two-dimensional (2D) nanocrystals of CdX (X = S, Se, Te) typically grown by colloidal synthesis are coated with organic ligands. Recent experimental work on ZnSe showed that the organic ligands can be removed at elevated temperature, giving a freestanding 2D sheet of ZnSe. In this theoretical work, freestanding single- to few-layer sheets of CdX, each possessing a pseudo honeycomb lattice, are considered by cutting along all possible lattice planes of the bulk zinc blende (ZB) and wurtzite (WZ) phases. Using density functional theory, we have systematically studied their geometric structures, energetics, and electronic properties. A strong surface distortion is found to occur for all of the layered sheets, and yet all of the pseudo honeycomb lattices are preserved, giving unique types of surface corrugations and different electronic properties. The energetics, in combination with phonon mode calculations and molecular dynamics simulations, indicate that the syntheses of these freestanding 2D sheets could be selective, with the single- to few-layer WZ110, WZ100, and ZB110 sheets being favored. Through the GW approximation, it is found that all single-layer sheets have large band gaps falling into the ultraviolet range, while thicker sheets in general have reduced band gaps in the visible and ultraviolet range. On the basis of the present work and the experimental studies on freestanding double-layer sheets of ZnSe, we envision that the freestanding 2D layered sheets of CdX predicted herein are potential synthesis targets, which may offer tunable band gaps depending on their structural features including surface corrugations, stacking motifs, and number of layers.

  12. Nanostructure characterization of beta-sheet crystals in silk under various temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Yan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the nanostructure characterizations of β-sheet in silk fiber with different reaction temperatures. A molecular dynamic model is developed and simulated by Gromacs software packages. The results reveal the change rules of the number of hydrogen bonds in β-sheet under different temperatures. The best reaction temperature for the β-sheet crystals is also found. This work provides theoretical basis for the designing of materials based on silk.

  13. Material Safety Data Sheets (MSDS)

    CERN Document Server

    Lalley, J

    About 250.000 Material Safety Data sheets from the U.S. Government Department of Defense MSDS database, a mirror of data from siri.uvm.edu, MSDS sheets maintained by Cornell University Environmental Health and Safety and other Cornell departments.

  14. Statistical inferences in phylogeography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Rasmus; Beaumont, Mark A

    2009-01-01

    can randomly lead to multiple different genealogies. Likewise, the same gene trees can arise under different demographic models. This problem has led to the emergence of many statistical methods for making phylogeographic inferences. A popular phylogeographic approach based on nested clade analysis...... is challenged by the fact that a certain amount of the interpretation of the data is left to the subjective choices of the user, and it has been argued that the method performs poorly in simulation studies. More rigorous statistical methods based on coalescence theory have been developed. However, these methods...... may also be challenged by computational problems or poor model choice. In this review, we will describe the development of statistical methods in phylogeographic analysis, and discuss some of the challenges facing these methods....

  15. Admissibility of logical inference rules

    CERN Document Server

    Rybakov, VV

    1997-01-01

    The aim of this book is to present the fundamental theoretical results concerning inference rules in deductive formal systems. Primary attention is focused on: admissible or permissible inference rules the derivability of the admissible inference rules the structural completeness of logics the bases for admissible and valid inference rules. There is particular emphasis on propositional non-standard logics (primary, superintuitionistic and modal logics) but general logical consequence relations and classical first-order theories are also considered. The book is basically self-contained and

  16. Dopamine, reward learning, and active inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eFitzgerald

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Temporal difference learning models propose phasic dopamine signalling encodes reward prediction errors that drive learning. This is supported by studies where optogenetic stimulation of dopamine neurons can stand in lieu of actual reward. Nevertheless, a large body of data also shows that dopamine is not necessary for learning, and that dopamine depletion primarily affects task performance. We offer a resolution to this paradox based on an hypothesis that dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about alternative actions, and thus controls the outcome-sensitivity of behaviour. We extend an active inference scheme for solving Markov decision processes to include learning, and show that simulated dopamine dynamics strongly resemble those actually observed during instrumental conditioning. Furthermore, simulated dopamine depletion impairs performance but spares learning, while simulated excitation of dopamine neurons drives reward learning, through aberrant inference about outcome states. Our formal approach provides a novel and parsimonious reconciliation of apparently divergent experimental findings.

  17. Current disruptions in the near-earth neutral sheet region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, A.T.Y.; Anderson, B.J.; Takahashi, K.; Zanetti, L.J.; McEntire, R.W.; Potemra, T.A.; Lopez, R.E.; Klumpar, D.M.; Greene, E.M.; Strangeway, R.

    1992-01-01

    Observations from the Charge Composition Explorer in 1985 and 1986 revealed fifteen current disruption events in which the magnetic field fluctuations were large and their onsets coincided well with ground onsets of substorm expansion or intensification. Over the disruption interval, the local magnetic field can change by as much as a factor of ∼7. In general, the stronger the current buildup and the closer the neutral sheet, the larger the resultant field change. There is also a tendency for a larger subsequent enhancement in the AE index with a stronger current buildup prior to current disruption. For events with good pitch angle coverage and extended observation in the neutral sheet region the authors find that the particle pressure increases toward the disruption onset and decreases afterward. Just prior to disruption, either the total particle pressure is isotropic, or the perpendicular component (P perpendicular ) dominates the parallel component (P parallel ), the plasma beta is seen to be as high as ∼70, and the observed plasma pressure gradient at the neutral sheet is large along the tail axis. The deduced local current density associated with pressure gradient is ∼27-80 n/Am 2 and is ∼85-105 mA/m when integrated over the sheet thickness. They infer from these results that just prior to the onset of current disruption, (1) an extremely thin current sheet requiring P parallel > P perpendicular for stress balance does not develop at these distances, (2) the thermal ion orbits are in the chaotic or Speiser regime while the thermal electrons are in the adiabatic regime and, in one case, exhibit peaked fluxes perpendicular to the magnetic field, thus implying no electron orbit chaotization to possibly initiate ion tearing instability, and (3) the neutral sheet is in the unstable regime specified by the cross-field current instability

  18. Geothermal Heat Flux Underneath Ice Sheets Estimated From Magnetic Satellite Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fox Maule, Cathrine; Purucker, M.E.; Olsen, Nils

    The geothermal heat flux is an important factor in the dynamics of ice sheets, and it is one of the important parameters in the thermal budgets of subglacial lakes. We have used satellite magnetic data to estimate the geothermal heat flux underneath the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland...

  19. Incorporation of ice sheet models into an Earth system model: Focus ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Oleg Rybak

    2018-03-06

    Mar 6, 2018 ... Elaboration of a modern Earth system model (ESM) requires incorporation of ice sheet dynamics. Coupling of an ice sheet model (ICM) to an AOGCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmospheric and oceanic components. To overcome this difficulty, we ...

  20. Gauging Variational Inference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chertkov, Michael [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ahn, Sungsoo [Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Jinwoo [Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-05-25

    Computing partition function is the most important statistical inference task arising in applications of Graphical Models (GM). Since it is computationally intractable, approximate methods have been used to resolve the issue in practice, where meanfield (MF) and belief propagation (BP) are arguably the most popular and successful approaches of a variational type. In this paper, we propose two new variational schemes, coined Gauged-MF (G-MF) and Gauged-BP (G-BP), improving MF and BP, respectively. Both provide lower bounds for the partition function by utilizing the so-called gauge transformation which modifies factors of GM while keeping the partition function invariant. Moreover, we prove that both G-MF and G-BP are exact for GMs with a single loop of a special structure, even though the bare MF and BP perform badly in this case. Our extensive experiments, on complete GMs of relatively small size and on large GM (up-to 300 variables) confirm that the newly proposed algorithms outperform and generalize MF and BP.

  1. Modelling the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke; Holm, A.

    2015-01-01

    Science) Antarctic Ice Sheet (DAIS) model (Shaffer 2014) is forced by reconstructed time series of Antarctic temperature, global sea level and ocean subsurface temperature over the last two glacial cycles. In this talk a modelling work of the Antarctic ice sheet over most of the Cenozoic era using...... the DAIS model will be presented. G. Shaffer (2014) Formulation, calibration and validation of the DAIS model (version 1), a simple Antarctic ice sheet model sensitive to variations of sea level and ocean subsurface temperature, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1803‐1818...

  2. Nonparaxial Bessel and Bessel–Gauss pincers light-sheets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitri, F.G., E-mail: F.G.Mitri@ieee.org

    2017-01-23

    Highlights: • Bessel and Bessel–Gauss autofocusing light sheets (i.e. beams in 2D) are developed. • The light-sheets are synthesized based on the angular spectrum decomposition method. • Computations of the scattering, radiation force and torque benefit from the solutions. - Abstract: Nonparaxial optical Bessel and Bessel–Gauss pincers optical-sheets are introduced based upon the angular spectrum decomposition in plane waves. The angular spectrum function and the beam-shape coefficients are expressed by means of improper integrals computed numerically. The radiated component of the electric field is also evaluated, displaying unique features of the nonparaxial Bessel pincers light-sheets. This new type of auto-focusing light-sheets finds potential applications in the development of novel methods in optical light-sheet tweezers for particle manipulation in opto-fluidics, particle sizing and imaging. Numerical predictions for the scattering, radiation force and torque, and particle dynamics also benefit from the developed beam solution.

  3. Nonparaxial Bessel and Bessel–Gauss pincers light-sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitri, F.G.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Bessel and Bessel–Gauss autofocusing light sheets (i.e. beams in 2D) are developed. • The light-sheets are synthesized based on the angular spectrum decomposition method. • Computations of the scattering, radiation force and torque benefit from the solutions. - Abstract: Nonparaxial optical Bessel and Bessel–Gauss pincers optical-sheets are introduced based upon the angular spectrum decomposition in plane waves. The angular spectrum function and the beam-shape coefficients are expressed by means of improper integrals computed numerically. The radiated component of the electric field is also evaluated, displaying unique features of the nonparaxial Bessel pincers light-sheets. This new type of auto-focusing light-sheets finds potential applications in the development of novel methods in optical light-sheet tweezers for particle manipulation in opto-fluidics, particle sizing and imaging. Numerical predictions for the scattering, radiation force and torque, and particle dynamics also benefit from the developed beam solution.

  4. Emplacement of Antarctic ice sheet mass affects circumpolar ocean flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rugenstein, Maria; Stocchi, Paolo; von der Heydt, Anna; Dijkstra, Hendrik; Brinkhuis, Henk

    2014-01-01

    During the Cenozoic the Antarctic continent experienced large fluctuations in ice-sheet volume. We investigate the effects of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) on Southern Ocean circulation for the first continental scale glaciation of Antarctica (~34 Myr) by combining solid Earth and ocean dynamic

  5. Phonon dispersions in graphene sheet and single-walled carbon ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. In the present research paper, phonons in graphene sheet have been calculated by constructing a dynamical matrix using the force constants derived from the second-generation reactive empirical bond order potential by Brenner and co-workers. Our results are comparable to inelastic X-ray scattering as well as ...

  6. Deglaciation of the Eurasian ice sheet complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patton, Henry; Hubbard, Alun; Andreassen, Karin; Auriac, Amandine; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Shackleton, Calvin; Winsborrow, Monica; Heyman, Jakob; Hall, Adrian M.

    2017-08-01

    The Eurasian ice sheet complex (EISC) was the third largest ice mass during the Last Glacial Maximum with a span of over 4500 km and responsible for around 20 m of eustatic sea-level lowering. Whilst recent terrestrial and marine empirical insights have improved understanding of the chronology, pattern and rates of retreat of this vast ice sheet, a concerted attempt to model the deglaciation of the EISC honouring these new constraints is conspicuously lacking. Here, we apply a first-order, thermomechanical ice sheet model, validated against a diverse suite of empirical data, to investigate the retreat of the EISC after 23 ka BP, directly extending the work of Patton et al. (2016) who modelled the build-up to its maximum extent. Retreat of the ice sheet complex was highly asynchronous, reflecting contrasting regional sensitivities to climate forcing, oceanic influence, and internal dynamics. Most rapid retreat was experienced across the Barents Sea sector after 17.8 ka BP when this marine-based ice sheet disintegrated at a rate of ∼670 gigatonnes per year (Gt a-1) through enhanced calving and interior dynamic thinning, driven by oceanic/atmospheric warming and exacerbated by eustatic sea-level rise. From 14.9 to 12.9 ka BP the EISC lost on average 750 Gt a-1, peaking at rates >3000 Gt a-1, roughly equally partitioned between surface melt and dynamic losses, and potentially contributing up to 2.5 m to global sea-level rise during Meltwater Pulse 1A. Independent glacio-isostatic modelling constrained by an extensive inventory of relative sea-level change corroborates our ice sheet loading history of the Barents Sea sector. Subglacial conditions were predominately temperate during deglaciation, with over 6000 subglacial lakes predicted along with an extensive subglacial drainage network. Moreover, the maximum EISC and its isostatic footprint had a profound impact on the proglacial hydrological network, forming the Fleuve Manche mega-catchment which had an area of

  7. Surface water hydrology and the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. C.; Yang, K.; Pitcher, L. H.; Overstreet, B. T.; Chu, V. W.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Cooper, M. G.; Gleason, C. J.; Ryan, J.; Hubbard, A.; Tedesco, M.; Behar, A.

    2016-12-01

    Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet now exceeds 260 Gt/year, raising global sea level by >0.7 mm annually. Approximately two-thirds of this total mass loss is now driven by negative ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), attributed mainly to production and runoff of meltwater from the ice sheet surface. This new dominance of runoff as a driver of GrIS total mass loss will likely persist owing to anticipated further increases in surface melting, reduced meltwater storage in firn, and the waning importance of dynamical mass losses (ice calving) as the ice sheets retreat from their marine-terminating margins. It also creates the need and opportunity for integrative research pairing traditional surface water hydrology approaches with glaciology. As one example, we present a way to measure supraglacial "runoff" (i.e. specific discharge) at the supraglacial catchment scale ( 101-102 km2), using in situ measurements of supraglacial river discharge and high-resolution satellite/drone mapping of upstream catchment area. This approach, which is standard in terrestrial hydrology but novel for ice sheet science, enables independent verification and improvement of modeled SMB runoff estimates used to project sea level rise. Furthermore, because current SMB models do not consider the role of fluvial watershed processes operating on the ice surface, inclusion of even a simple surface routing model materially improves simulations of runoff delivered to moulins, the critical pathways for meltwater entry into the ice sheet. Incorporating principles of surface water hydrology and fluvial geomorphology and into glaciological models will thus aid estimates of Greenland meltwater runoff to the global ocean as well as connections to subglacial hydrology and ice sheet dynamics.

  8. 2007 Swimming Season Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    To help beachgoers make informed decisions about swimming at U.S. beaches, EPA annually publishes state-by-state data about beach closings and advisories for the previous year's swimming season. These fact sheets summarize that information by state.

  9. 2006 Swimming Season Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    To help beachgoers make informed decisions about swimming at U.S. beaches, EPA annually publishes state-by-state data about beach closings and advisories for the previous year's swimming season. These fact sheets summarize that information by state.

  10. 2009 Swimming Season Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    To help beachgoers make informed decisions about swimming at U.S. beaches, EPA annually publishes state-by-state data about beach closings and advisories for the previous year's swimming season. These fact sheets summarize that information by state.

  11. 2008 Swimming Season Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    To help beachgoers make informed decisions about swimming at U.S. beaches, EPA annually publishes state-by-state data about beach closings and advisories for the previous year's swimming season. These fact sheets summarize that information by state.

  12. 2010 Swimming Season Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    To help beachgoers make informed decisions about swimming at U.S. beaches, EPA annually publishes state-by-state data about beach closings and advisories for the previous year's swimming season. These fact sheets summarize that information by state.

  13. 2012 Swimming Season Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    To help beachgoers make informed decisions about swimming at U.S. beaches, EPA annually publishes state-by-state data about beach closings and advisories for the previous year's swimming season. These fact sheets summarize that information by state.

  14. State Fact Sheets on COPD

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Submit Search The CDC Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Note: Javascript is disabled or is not supported ... message, please visit this page: About CDC.gov . COPD Homepage Data and Statistics Fact Sheets Publications Publications ...

  15. Thermoelectric properties of single-layered SnSe sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fancy Qian; Zhang, Shunhong; Yu, Jiabing; Wang, Qian

    2015-09-01

    Motivated by the recent study of inspiring thermoelectric properties in bulk SnSe [Zhao et al., Nature, 2014, 508, 373] and the experimental synthesis of SnSe sheets [Chen et al., J. Am. Chem. Soc., 2013, 135, 1213], we have carried out systematic calculations for a single-layered SnSe sheet focusing on its stability, electronic structure and thermoelectric properties by using density functional theory combined with Boltzmann transport theory. We have found that the sheet is dynamically and thermally stable with a band gap of 1.28 eV, and the figure of merit (ZT) reaches 3.27 (2.76) along the armchair (zigzag) direction with optimal n-type carrier concentration, which is enhanced nearly 7 times compared to its bulk counterpart at 700 K due to quantum confinement effect. Furthermore, we designed four types of thermoelectric couples by assembling single-layered SnSe sheets with different transport directions and doping types, and found that their efficiencies are all above 13%, which are higher than those of thermoelectric couples made of commercial bulk Bi2Te3 (7%-8%), suggesting the great potential of single-layered SnSe sheets for heat-electricity conversion.Motivated by the recent study of inspiring thermoelectric properties in bulk SnSe [Zhao et al., Nature, 2014, 508, 373] and the experimental synthesis of SnSe sheets [Chen et al., J. Am. Chem. Soc., 2013, 135, 1213], we have carried out systematic calculations for a single-layered SnSe sheet focusing on its stability, electronic structure and thermoelectric properties by using density functional theory combined with Boltzmann transport theory. We have found that the sheet is dynamically and thermally stable with a band gap of 1.28 eV, and the figure of merit (ZT) reaches 3.27 (2.76) along the armchair (zigzag) direction with optimal n-type carrier concentration, which is enhanced nearly 7 times compared to its bulk counterpart at 700 K due to quantum confinement effect. Furthermore, we designed four types of

  16. Energy information sheets, July 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    The National Energy Information Center (NEIC), as part of its mission, provides energy information and referral assistance to Federal, State, and local governments, the academic community, business and industrial organizations, and the public. The Energy Information Sheets was developed to provide general information on various aspects of fuel production, prices, consumption, and capability. Additional information on related subject matter can be found in other Energy Information Administration (EIA) publications as referenced at the end of each sheet.

  17. Energy information sheets, September 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-09-01

    The National Energy Information Center (NEIC), as part of its mission, provides energy information and referral assistance to Federal, State, and local governments, the academic community, business and industrial organizations, and the public. The Energy Information Sheets was developed to provide general information on various aspects of fuel production, prices, consumption, and capability. Additional information on related subject matter can be found in other Energy Information Administration (EIA) publications as referenced at the end of each sheet.

  18. Efficient Bayesian inference under the structured coalescent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Timothy G; Kühnert, Denise; Popinga, Alex; Welch, David; Drummond, Alexei J

    2014-08-15

    Population structure significantly affects evolutionary dynamics. Such structure may be due to spatial segregation, but may also reflect any other gene-flow-limiting aspect of a model. In combination with the structured coalescent, this fact can be used to inform phylogenetic tree reconstruction, as well as to infer parameters such as migration rates and subpopulation sizes from annotated sequence data. However, conducting Bayesian inference under the structured coalescent is impeded by the difficulty of constructing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms (samplers) capable of efficiently exploring the state space. In this article, we present a new MCMC sampler capable of sampling from posterior distributions over structured trees: timed phylogenetic trees in which lineages are associated with the distinct subpopulation in which they lie. The sampler includes a set of MCMC proposal functions that offer significant mixing improvements over a previously published method. Furthermore, its implementation as a BEAST 2 package ensures maximum flexibility with respect to model and prior specification. We demonstrate the usefulness of this new sampler by using it to infer migration rates and effective population sizes of H3N2 influenza between New Zealand, New York and Hong Kong from publicly available hemagglutinin (HA) gene sequences under the structured coalescent. The sampler has been implemented as a publicly available BEAST 2 package that is distributed under version 3 of the GNU General Public License at http://compevol.github.io/MultiTypeTree. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

  19. Estimating the future ice sheet hydropower potential in Paakitsoq, Ilulissat, West Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Mottram, R.H.; Nielsen, C.

    2008-01-01

    long-term investment for an Arctic community of modest population. Here we present a new bedrock and surface map of the Paakitsoq/Swiss Camp part of the Greenland ice sheet and a prediction of the future discharge up to 2080 AD using regional climate model output, dynamic ice sheet modelling......Meltwater running off the Greenland ice sheet yield significant hydropower potentials in catchments bordering the ice sheet, especially in West and South Greenland. Hydropower has been chosen as the most desired source of energy by the Greenland Home Rule, but recent changes in the Greenland ice...... sheet has emphasized the risk of sudden changes in catchment supply. In this study, we present a thorough investigation of hydropower feasibility at the Paakitsoq basin, near Ilulissat in West Greenland. The catchment is completely dominated by the Greenland ice sheet which provides large quantities...

  20. Temperature sheets and aspect sensitive radar echoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Luce

    of the ST radar echoes with a particular emphasis on recent works. Their possible coupling with stable sheets is then presented and their known characteristics are described with some hypotheses concerning their generation mechanisms. Finally, measurement campaigns that took recently place or will be carried out in the near future for improving our knowledge of these small-scale structures are presented briefly.

    Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (turbulence; instruments and techniques – Radio Science (remote sensing

  1. Temperature sheets and aspect sensitive radar echoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Luce

    2001-08-01

    of the ST radar echoes with a particular emphasis on recent works. Their possible coupling with stable sheets is then presented and their known characteristics are described with some hypotheses concerning their generation mechanisms. Finally, measurement campaigns that took recently place or will be carried out in the near future for improving our knowledge of these small-scale structures are presented briefly.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (turbulence; instruments and techniques – Radio Science (remote sensing

  2. An Inference Language for Imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedemonte, Stefano; Catana, Ciprian; Van Leemput, Koen

    2014-01-01

    We introduce iLang, a language and software framework for probabilistic inference. The iLang framework enables the definition of directed and undirected probabilistic graphical models and the automated synthesis of high performance inference algorithms for imaging applications. The iLang framework...... is composed of a set of language primitives and of an inference engine based on a message-passing system that integrates cutting-edge computational tools, including proximal algorithms and high performance Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. A set of domain-specific highly optimized GPU...

  3. Optimization methods for logical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Chandru, Vijay

    2011-01-01

    Merging logic and mathematics in deductive inference-an innovative, cutting-edge approach. Optimization methods for logical inference? Absolutely, say Vijay Chandru and John Hooker, two major contributors to this rapidly expanding field. And even though ""solving logical inference problems with optimization methods may seem a bit like eating sauerkraut with chopsticks. . . it is the mathematical structure of a problem that determines whether an optimization model can help solve it, not the context in which the problem occurs."" Presenting powerful, proven optimization techniques for logic in

  4. Light sheet microscopes: Novel imaging toolbox for visualizing life's processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heddleston, John M; Chew, Teng-Leong

    2016-11-01

    Capturing dynamic processes in live samples is a nontrivial task in biological imaging. Although fluorescence provides high specificity and contrast compared to other light microscopy techniques, the photophysical principles of this method can have a harmful effect on the sample. Current advances in light sheet microscopy have created a novel imaging toolbox that allows for rapid acquisition of high-resolution fluorescent images with minimal perturbation of the processes of interest. Each unique design has its own advantages and limitations. In this review, we describe several cutting edge light sheet microscopes and their optimal applications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Life and death of a particle-laden liquid sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raux, Pascal; Troger, Anthony; Jop, Pierre; Sauret, Alban

    2017-11-01

    Thin films of suspensions are involved in many industrial processes, such as surface coating or liquid transport in tubes. For dilute suspensions, it is well known that the particles increase the effective viscosity. However, this only holds in the continuum approximation, and should fail in a confined situation such as a liquid sheet. Here, we investigate the dynamics of a thin film of suspension, formed upon the impact of a suspension drop. We show that the atomization process varies when the thickness of the liquid film is smaller than the particle' size, leading to a loss of stability of the sheet. Our results highlight the influence of capillary effects in this confined flow.

  6. Greenland Ice sheet mass balance from satellite and airborne altimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Bevis, M. G.; Wahr, J. M.

    Ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is dominated by loss in the marginal areas. Dynamic induced ice loss and its associated ice surface lowering is often largest close to the glacier calving front and may vary from rates of tens of meters per years to a few meters per year over relatively...... short distances. Hence, high spatial resolution data are required to accurately estimate volume changes. Here, we estimate ice volume change rate of the Greenland ice sheet using data from Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter during 2003-2009 and CryoSat-2 data during 2010...

  7. Perforation of metal sheets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steenstrup, Jens Erik

    The main purposes of this project are:1. Development of a dynamic model for the piercing and performation process2. Analyses of the main parameters3. Establishing demands for process improvements4. Expansion of the existing parameter limitsThe literature survey describes the process influence of ...... and a tool designed for punches with minimum length. Further, a systematic problem solving procedure is established. This procedure includes simulation as an integrated part, necessary for problem detection and to predict a favourable solution....

  8. Statistical inference via fiducial methods

    OpenAIRE

    Salomé, Diemer

    1998-01-01

    In this thesis the attention is restricted to inductive reasoning using a mathematical probability model. A statistical procedure prescribes, for every theoretically possible set of data, the inference about the unknown of interest. ... Zie: Summary

  9. On principles of inductive inference

    OpenAIRE

    Kostecki, Ryszard Paweł

    2011-01-01

    We propose an intersubjective epistemic approach to foundations of probability theory and statistical inference, based on relative entropy and category theory, and aimed to bypass the mathematical and conceptual problems of existing foundational approaches.

  10. Statistical inference for stochastic processes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Basawa, Ishwar V; Prakasa Rao, B. L. S

    1980-01-01

    The aim of this monograph is to attempt to reduce the gap between theory and applications in the area of stochastic modelling, by directing the interest of future researchers to the inference aspects...

  11. Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.

  12. Cancer Evolution: Mathematical Models and Computational Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerenwinkel, Niko; Schwarz, Roland F.; Gerstung, Moritz; Markowetz, Florian

    2015-01-01

    Cancer is a somatic evolutionary process characterized by the accumulation of mutations, which contribute to tumor growth, clinical progression, immune escape, and drug resistance development. Evolutionary theory can be used to analyze the dynamics of tumor cell populations and to make inference about the evolutionary history of a tumor from molecular data. We review recent approaches to modeling the evolution of cancer, including population dynamics models of tumor initiation and progression, phylogenetic methods to model the evolutionary relationship between tumor subclones, and probabilistic graphical models to describe dependencies among mutations. Evolutionary modeling helps to understand how tumors arise and will also play an increasingly important prognostic role in predicting disease progression and the outcome of medical interventions, such as targeted therapy. PMID:25293804

  13. Monitoring southwest Greenland’s ice sheet melt with ambient seismic noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mordret, Aurélien; Mikesell, T. Dylan; Harig, Christopher; Lipovsky, Bradley P.; Prieto, Germán A.

    2016-01-01

    The Greenland ice sheet presently accounts for ~70% of global ice sheet mass loss. Because this mass loss is associated with sea-level rise at a rate of 0.7 mm/year, the development of improved monitoring techniques to observe ongoing changes in ice sheet mass balance is of paramount concern. Spaceborne mass balance techniques are commonly used; however, they are inadequate for many purposes because of their low spatial and/or temporal resolution. We demonstrate that small variations in seismic wave speed in Earth’s crust, as measured with the correlation of seismic noise, may be used to infer seasonal ice sheet mass balance. Seasonal loading and unloading of glacial mass induces strain in the crust, and these strains then result in seismic velocity changes due to poroelastic processes. Our method provides a new and independent way of monitoring (in near real time) ice sheet mass balance, yielding new constraints on ice sheet evolution and its contribution to global sea-level changes. An increased number of seismic stations in the vicinity of ice sheets will enhance our ability to create detailed space-time records of ice mass variations. PMID:27386524

  14. Simulation of the European ice sheet through the last glacial cycle and prediction of future glaciation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulton, G.S.; Payne, A.

    1992-12-01

    Global climates of the recent past appear to correlate with patterns of variation in the earths orbit round the sun. As such orbital changes can be predicted into the future, it is argued that the pattern of natural long-term future change can also be estimated. From this, future trends of glaciation can be inferred. The physical and mathematical basis of a time-dependent, thermo mechanically coupled, three dimensional ice sheet model is described. The model is driven by changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) on its surface. This causes flexure of the underlying lithosphere. The model is tuned to the maximum extension of the last (Weichselian) ice sheet and driven by an ELA fluctuation which reflects the NE Atlantic sea surface temperature fluctuation pattern during the last glacial cycle in such a way that the model reproduces the ice sheet margin at the glacial maximum. The distribution of internal ice sheet velocity, temperature, basal melting rate and sub glacial permafrost penetration are all computed. The model is then tested against its predictions of the areal pattern of ice sheet expansion and decay, the pattern of crustal flexure and relative sea level change, and the distribution of till produced by the last European ice sheet. The tested model is then driven by predictions of future climate change to produce simulations of future ice sheet glaciation in northern Europe

  15. Automobile sheet metal part production with incremental sheet forming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İsmail DURGUN

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, effect of global warming is increasing drastically so it leads to increased interest on energy efficiency and sustainable production methods. As a result of adverse conditions, national and international project platforms, OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers, SMEs (Small and Mid-size Manufacturers perform many studies or improve existing methodologies in scope of advanced manufacturing techniques. In this study, advanced manufacturing and sustainable production method "Incremental Sheet Metal Forming (ISF" was used for sheet metal forming process. A vehicle fender was manufactured with or without die by using different toolpath strategies and die sets. At the end of the study, Results have been investigated under the influence of method and parameters used.Keywords: Template incremental sheet metal, Metal forming

  16. Horizontal electromagnetic casting of thin metal sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hull, John R.; Lari, Robert J.; Praeg, Walter F.; Turner, Larry R.

    1987-01-01

    Thin metal sheets are cast by magnetically suspending molten metal deposited within a ferromagnetic yoke and between AC conducting coils and linearly displacing the magnetically levitated liquid metal while it is being cooled to form a solid metal sheet. Magnetic flux increases as the molten metal sheet moves downward and decreases as the molten metal sheet moves upward to stabilize the sheet and maintain it in equilibrium as it is linearly displaced and solidified by cooling gases. A conducting shield is electrically coupled to the molten metal sheet by means of either metal sheet engaging rollers or brushes on the solidified metal, and by means of an electrode in the vessel containing the molten metal thereby providing a return path for the eddy currents induced in the metal sheet by the AC coil generated magnetic flux. Variation in the geometry of the conducting shield allows the magnetic flux between the metal sheet and the conducting shield to be varied and the thickness in surface quality of the metal sheet to be controlled. Side guards provide lateral containment for the molten metal sheet and stabilize and shape the magnetic field while a leader sheet having electromagnetic characteristics similar to those of the metal sheet is used to start the casting process and precedes the molten metal sheet through the magnet and forms a continuous sheet therewith. The magnet may be either U-shaped with a single racetrack coil or may be rectangular with a pair of facing bedstead coils.

  17. Horizontal electromagnetic casting of thin metal sheets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hull, John R. (Hinsdale, IL); Lari, Robert J. (Aurora, IL); Praeg, Walter F. (Palos Park, IL); Turner, Larry R. (Naperville, IL)

    1988-01-01

    Thin metal sheets are cast by magnetically suspending molten metal deposited within a ferromagnetic yoke and between AC conducting coils and linearly displacing the magnetically levitated liquid metal while it is being cooled to form a solid metal sheet. Magnetic flux increases as the molten metal sheet moves downward and decreases as the molten metal sheet moves upward to stabilize the sheet and maintain it in equilibrium as it is linearly displaced and solidified by cooling gases. A conducting shield is electrically coupled to the molten metal sheet by means of either metal sheet engaging rollers or brushes on the solidified metal, and by means of an electrode in the vessel containing the molten metal thereby providing a return path for the eddy currents induced in the metal sheet by the AC coil generated magnetic flux. Variation in the geometry of the conducting shield allows the magnetic flux between the metal sheet and the conducting shield to be varied and the thickness in surface quality of the metal sheet to be controlled. Side guards provide lateral containment for the molten metal sheet and stabilize and shape the magnetic field while a leader sheet having electromagnetic characteristics similar to those of the metal sheet is used to start the casting process and precedes the molten metal sheet through the magnet and forms a continuous sheet therewith. The magnet may be either U-shaped with a single racetrack coil or may be rectangular with a pair of facing bedstead coils.

  18. Hydrogen detection by a boron sheet: A theoretical study .

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, F. Javier; Novotny, Michal; Krstic, Predrag S.

    A single boron sheet is now considered as a new nanomaterial with promising applications in electronics and as a sensor device. In this study we present quantum-classical molecular dynamic (QCMD) calculation of reflection, adsorption, and transmission processes of hydrogen impacting at energy in range 0.25 to 100 eV on a single boron sheet. Quantum-mechanical component of our QCMD approach is self-consistent charge tight binding density functional theory method (SCC-DFTB,). We consider the corrugated boron sheet as our target, created experimentally, and compare our results with those reported for graphene, showing noticeable differences. Research supported by CONACyT postdoctoral scholarship to FJD and the Fulbright Comission (Grant 15160939) to MN. Results were obtained using the LI-red cluster at IACS.

  19. Soldering sheets using soft solders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Brožek

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper contains strength tests results of joints soldered using lead and leadless soft solders. For tests lead solders types Pb60Sn40 and Sn60Pb40 and leadless soft solders types Sn95.5Ag3.8Cu0.7 and Sn96Ag4 were used. As basic materials steel sheet, zinc-coated steel sheet, copper sheet and brass sheet 100 x 20 x 1 mm was the test samples size. Always two sheets were cleaned and jointed together. For heating the propane-butane + air flame was used. Then the tested assemblies were loaded using the universal tensile-strength testing machine till to failure. At the tests the force needed for assemblies failure and failure type (in soldered joint, in basic material were recorded. From measured data the solder strength was calculated. From the experiment results it follows that from the point of view of the soldered joints strength as well of the solder strength relatively small differences were found. At the same time it is evident that the joint strength and solder strength depend on soldered material type and on soldered joint lapping length. On the basis of carried out experiments it can be stated that the substitution of lead solders by leadless solders is possible without risk of soldered joints strength decrease.

  20. Uranium mining sites - Thematic sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    A first sheet proposes comments, data and key numbers about uranium extraction in France: general overview of uranium mining sites, status of waste rock and tailings after exploitation, site rehabilitation. The second sheet addresses the sources of exposure to ionizing radiations due to ancient uranium mining sites: discussion on the identification of these sources associated with these sites, properly due to mining activities or to tailings, or due to the transfer of radioactive substances towards water and to the contamination of sediments, description of the practice and assessment of radiological control of mining sites. A third sheet addresses the radiological exposure of public to waste rocks, and the dose assessment according to exposure scenarios: main exposure ways to be considered, studied exposure scenarios (passage on backfilled path and grounds, stay in buildings built on waste rocks, keeping mineralogical samples at home). The fourth sheet addresses research programmes of the IRSN on uranium and radon: epidemiological studies (performed on mine workers; on French and on European cohorts, French and European studies on the risk of lung cancer associated with radon in housing), study of the biological effects of chronic exposures. The last sheet addresses studies and expertises performed by the IRSN on ancient uranium mining sites in France: studies commissioned by public authorities, radioactivity control studies performed by the IRSN about mining sites, participation of the IRSN to actions to promote openness to civil society

  1. Systematic inference of functional phosphorylation events in yeast metabolism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yu; Wang, Yonghong; Nielsen, Jens

    2017-01-01

    of phosphorylation events to flux changes. We showed that phosphorylation regulation analysis, combined with a systematic workflow and correlation analysis, can be used for inference of functional phosphorylation events in steady and dynamic conditions, respectively. Using this analysis, we assigned functionality...... biology....

  2. Inferring the temperature dependence of population parameters: the effects of experimental design and inference algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palamara, Gian Marco; Childs, Dylan Z; Clements, Christopher F; Petchey, Owen L; Plebani, Marco; Smith, Matthew J

    2014-12-01

    Understanding and quantifying the temperature dependence of population parameters, such as intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity, is critical for predicting the ecological responses to environmental change. Many studies provide empirical estimates of such temperature dependencies, but a thorough investigation of the methods used to infer them has not been performed yet. We created artificial population time series using a stochastic logistic model parameterized with the Arrhenius equation, so that activation energy drives the temperature dependence of population parameters. We simulated different experimental designs and used different inference methods, varying the likelihood functions and other aspects of the parameter estimation methods. Finally, we applied the best performing inference methods to real data for the species Paramecium caudatum. The relative error of the estimates of activation energy varied between 5% and 30%. The fraction of habitat sampled played the most important role in determining the relative error; sampling at least 1% of the habitat kept it below 50%. We found that methods that simultaneously use all time series data (direct methods) and methods that estimate population parameters separately for each temperature (indirect methods) are complementary. Indirect methods provide a clearer insight into the shape of the functional form describing the temperature dependence of population parameters; direct methods enable a more accurate estimation of the parameters of such functional forms. Using both methods, we found that growth rate and carrying capacity of Paramecium caudatum scale with temperature according to different activation energies. Our study shows how careful choice of experimental design and inference methods can increase the accuracy of the inferred relationships between temperature and population parameters. The comparison of estimation methods provided here can increase the accuracy of model predictions, with important

  3. Combined Radiation Belt - Plasma Sheet System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aseev, Nikita; Shprits, Yuri; Kellerman, Adam; Drozdov, Alexander; Zhu, Hui

    2017-04-01

    Recent years have given rise to numerous mathematical models of the Earth's radiation belt dynamics. Driven by observations at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) where satellites (e.g. GOES and LANL) provide extensive in-situ measurements, radiation belt models usually take into account only diffusion processes in the energetic electron belts (100 keV and greater), leaving aside the dynamics of colder source population (tens of keV). Such models are able to reconstruct the radiation belt state, but they are not capable of predicting the electron dynamics at GEO, where many communication and navigation satellites currently operate. In this work we present combined four-dimensional electron radiation belt - plasma sheet model accounting for adiabatic advective transport, radial diffusion due to interaction with ULF waves, local acceleration of electrons, scattering into the atmosphere, magnetopause shadowing, and adiabatic effects due to contraction and expansion of the magnetic field. The developed model is applicable to energetic, relativistic and ultrarelativistic electrons as well as to source electron population. The model provides spatial particle distribution allowing us to compare and validate the model with multiple satellite measurements at different MLT sectors (e.g. Van Allen Probes, GOES, LANL, THEMIS). The model can be helpful for the prediction of crucial for satellite operators geosynchronous electron fluxes and electron radiation belt dynamics including the heart of the outer belt, slot region and inner belt.

  4. Ni-Flash-Coated Galvannealed Steel Sheet with Improved Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, D.; Dutta, M.; Venugopalan, T.

    2016-11-01

    In the last several years, automobile industries have increasingly focused on galvannealed (GA) steel sheet due to their superior properties such as weldability, paintability and corrosion protection. To improve the properties further, different coatings on GA have been reported. In this context, an electroplating process (flash coating) of bright and adherent Ni plating was developed on GA steel sheet for covering the GA defects and enhancing the performances such as weldability, frictional behavior, corrosion resistance and phosphatability. For better illustration, a comparative study with bare GA steel sheet has also been carried out. The maximum electroplating current density of 700 A/m2 yielded higher cathode current efficiency of 95-98%. The performances showed that Ni-coated (coating time 5-7 s) GA steel sheet has better spot weldability, lower dynamic coefficient of friction (0.07 in lubrication) and three times more corrosion resistance compared to bare GA steel sheet. Plate-like crystal of phosphate coating with size of 10-25 µm was obtained on the Ni-coated GA. The main phase in the phosphate compound was identified as hopeite (63.4 wt.%) along with other phases such as spencerite (28.3 wt.%) and phosphophyllite (8.3 wt.%).

  5. Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sun

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ∼ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.

  6. Non-dissipative shapable sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Naomi; Witten, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    A sheet of paper that has been crumpled and flattened retains some amount of shapability that a bare, uncrumpled, sheet does not have: when deformed by external forces, it retains the deformed shape after the forces are removed. Using a frustrated two dimensional lattice of springs, we show that such shapability can be attained in a non-dissipative system. Numerical investigations suggest an extensive number of bistable energy minima using several variants of this scheme. The numerical sheet can be bent into a nearly-closed cylinder that holds its shape. We verify that the deformed shape is locally stable and compare its bending modulus in the deformed state with that in the initial flat state. We investigate the threshold for non-elastic deformation using various kinds of forcing.

  7. Root-growth-inhibiting sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Frederick G.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Cline, John F.; Skiens, W. Eugene; Van Voris, Peter

    1993-01-01

    In accordance with this invention, a porous sheet material is provided at intervals with bodies of a polymer which contain a 2,6-dinitroaniline. The sheet material is made porous to permit free passage of water. It may be either a perforated sheet or a woven or non-woven textile material. A particularly desirable embodiment is a non-woven fabric of non-biodegradable material. This type of material is known as a "geotextile" and is used for weed control, prevention of erosion on slopes, and other landscaping purposes. In order to obtain a root repelling property, a dinitroaniline is blended with a polymer which is attached to the geotextile or other porous material.

  8. Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Goodman, Lawrence E

    2001-01-01

    Beginning text presents complete theoretical treatment of mechanical model systems and deals with technological applications. Topics include introduction to calculus of vectors, particle motion, dynamics of particle systems and plane rigid bodies, technical applications in plane motions, theory of mechanical vibrations, and more. Exercises and answers appear in each chapter.

  9. Sheet Bending using Soft Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinke, J.

    2011-05-01

    Sheet bending is usually performed by air bending and V-die bending processes. Both processes apply rigid tools. These solid tools facilitate the generation of software for the numerical control of those processes. When the lower rigid die is replaced with a soft or rubber tool, the numerical control becomes much more difficult, since the soft tool deforms too. Compared to other bending processes the rubber backed bending process has some distinct advantages, like large radius-to-thickness ratios, applicability to materials with topcoats, well defined radii, and the feasibility of forming details (ridges, beads). These advantages may give the process exclusive benefits over conventional bending processes, not only for industries related to mechanical engineering and sheet metal forming, but also for other disciplines like Architecture and Industrial Design The largest disadvantage is that also the soft (rubber) tool deforms. Although the tool deformation is elastic and recovers after each process cycle, the applied force during bending is related to the deformation of the metal sheet and the deformation of the rubber. The deformation of the rubber interacts with the process but also with sheet parameters. This makes the numerical control of the process much more complicated. This paper presents a model for the bending of sheet materials using a rubber lower die. This model can be implemented in software in order to control the bending process numerically. The model itself is based on numerical and experimental research. In this research a number of variables related to the tooling and the material have been evaluated. The numerical part of the research was used to investigate the influence of the features of the soft lower tool, like the hardness and dimensions, and the influence of the sheet thickness, which also interacts with the soft tool deformation. The experimental research was focused on the relation between the machine control parameters and the most

  10. The manufacture of superplastic magnesium alloy sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grimes, R.; Jackson, M.; Moorhouse, B.; Dashwood, R. [Department of Materials, Imperial College London (United Kingdom)

    2008-04-15

    Probably because of their propensity to dynamically recrystallise, superplastic behaviour can be obtained from magnesium alloys considerably more easily than from comparable aluminium alloys. In some cases even as cast magnesium alloys can exhibit reasonable superplasticity and there appears no need for the special alloying additions or complex thermal mechanical treatments required by aluminium alloys such as AA2004 or AA7475. The paper describes the superplastic behaviour (in uniaxial tension) and microstructure of sheet processed from strip cast AZ31 and AZ91. The material was tested in the as-cast condition and after warm rolling to a number of gauges. Industrially useful superplastic capability was demonstrated in strip cast AZ31 and AZ91 in the as cast condition. Furthermore good superplastic capability was also demonstrated in sheet rolled from the cast metal and the ductilities obtained were not significantly influenced by rolling strain. Twin roll strip casting represents a feasible and simple route for the production of superplastic material either for use in the as cast condition or after rolling to the required gauge. (Abstract Copyright [2008], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

  11. Sheet Beam Klystron Instability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bane, K.

    2009-01-01

    Using the principle of energy balance we develop a 2D theory for calculating growth rates of instability in a two-cavity model of a sheet beam klystron. An important ingredient is a TE-like mode in the gap that also gives a longitudinal kick to the beam. When compared with a self-consistent particle-in-cell calculation, with sheet beam klystron-type parameters, agreement is quite good up to half the design current, 65 A; at full current, however, other, current-dependent effects come in and the results deviate significantly

  12. Hydrogeological map of Kabo Sheet 80NW topographical sheet 1 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A hydro geological mapping of the Federal Surveys of Nigeria, Kabo Sheet 80 NW, on scale 1:50,000 were made with areal coverage of 729Km2 on the Crystalline Basement Complex, and the hydrogeoogical maps produced are maps of depth to the water table and maps of configuration peak of dry season and wet ...

  13. Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowicki, Sophie M.J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

    2018-01-01

    Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship to other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice sheet – climate models as well as standalone ice sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change.

  14. Evolution of the Eurasian Ice Sheets during the Last Deglaciation (25-10 kyr)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, A. L. C.; Gyllencreutz, R.; Mangerud, J.; Svendsen, J. I.; Lohne, Ø. S.

    2014-12-01

    Both the timing of maximum extent and subsequent pace of retreat of the interconnected Eurasian (British-Irish, Scandinavian, Svalbard-Barents-Kara Sea) Ice Sheets were spatially variable likely reflecting contrasts in response to forcing mechanisms, geographical settings and glacial dynamics both between individual ice sheets and ice-sheet sectors. For example the maximum limit along the western continental shelf edge was reached up to 3,000 years earlier than the maximum, mainly terrestrial, limits in the east. We present new time-slice reconstructions of the ice-sheet evolution through the last deglaciation based on a compiled chronology of over 5,000 dates and published ice-margin positions. Ice-sheet margins are depicted every 1,000 years (25-10 kyr) and include uncertainty estimates (represented by maximum, minimum and most-credible lines). The new ice-sheet scale reconstructions summarise and provide the means for direct comparison of the empirical geological record against simulations of the deglacial ice-sheet evolution from numerical and isostatic ice-sheet modelling and the timing of abrupt events observed in deglacial climate and ocean records. The reconstruction process has identified both instances of conflicting evidence and gaps in the geological record that should be a focus for future studies. This work is part of an on-going project to reconstruct the changing limits of the Eurasian Ice Sheets through the last glacial cycle (www.uib.no/project/dated).

  15. Morphology and Density Structure of Post-CME Current Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrsnak, B.; Poletto, G.; Vujic, E.; Vourlidas, A.

    2009-01-01

    Eruption of a coronal mass ejection (CME) is believed to drag and open the coronal magnetic field, presumably leading to the formation of a large-scale current sheet and field relaxation by magnetic reconnection. This paper analyzes the physical characteristics of ray-like coronal features formed in the aftermath of CMEs, to confirm whether interpreting such phenomena in terms of a reconnecting current sheet is consistent with observations. Methods: The study focuses on UVCS/SOHO and LASCO/SOHO measurements of the ray width, density excess, and coronal velocity field as a function of the radial distance. The morphology of the rays implies that they are produced by Petschek-like reconnection in the large-scale current sheet formed in the wake of CME. The hypothesis is supported by the flow pattern, often showing outflows along the ray, and sometimes also inflows into the ray. The inferred inflow velocities range from 3 to 30 km/s, and are consistent with the narrow opening-angle of rays, which add up to a few degrees. The density of rays is an order of magnitude higher than in the ambient corona. The model results are consistent with the observations, revealing that the main cause of the density excess in rays is a transport of the dense plasma from lower to higher heights by the reconnection outflow.

  16. Locative inferences in medical texts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, P S; Bailey, G H; Mayer, R J; Hillis, A; Dvoracek, J E

    1987-06-01

    Medical research relies on epidemiological studies conducted on a large set of clinical records that have been collected from physicians recording individual patient observations. These clinical records are recorded for the purpose of individual care of the patient with little consideration for their use by a biostatistician interested in studying a disease over a large population. Natural language processing of clinical records for epidemiological studies must deal with temporal, locative, and conceptual issues. This makes text understanding and data extraction of clinical records an excellent area for applied research. While much has been done in making temporal or conceptual inferences in medical texts, parallel work in locative inferences has not been done. This paper examines the locative inferences as well as the integration of temporal, locative, and conceptual issues in the clinical record understanding domain by presenting an application that utilizes two key concepts in its parsing strategy--a knowledge-based parsing strategy and a minimal lexicon.

  17. Higher Education Act. Fact Sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Council on Disability, 2004

    2004-01-01

    This fact sheet highlights the challenges for students with disabilities in the nation's university system and recommends solutions that would result in better support systems for postsecondary students with disabilities. This document discusses several interrelated issues that impact student preparation and access to postsecondary education. The…

  18. Fact Sheet: Vulnerable Young Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Evelyn, Comp.; Goode, Sue, Comp.

    2008-01-01

    This fact sheet provides data on infants, toddlers and young children who are experiencing high stress as a result of a number of risk factors specifically identified in the Individuals with Disabilities Education Improvement Act of 2004 (IDEA 2004), including substantiated abuse or neglect, foster care placement, homelessness, exposure to family…

  19. Off-Balance Sheet Financing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Matthew C.

    1998-01-01

    Examines off-balance sheet financing, the facilities use of outsourcing for selected needs, as a means of saving operational costs and using facility assets efficiently. Examples of using outside sources for energy supply and food services, as well as partnering with business for facility expansion are provided. Concluding comments address tax…

  20. Learning from Balance Sheet Visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanlamai, Uthai; Soongswang, Oranuj

    2011-01-01

    This exploratory study examines alternative visuals and their effect on the level of learning of balance sheet users. Executive and regular classes of graduate students majoring in information technology in business were asked to evaluate the extent of acceptance and enhanced capability of these alternative visuals toward their learning…

  1. Stabilization of Inviscid Vortex Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protas, Bartosz; Sakajo, Takashi

    2017-11-01

    In this study we investigate the problem of stabilizing inviscid vortex sheets via feedback control. Such models, expressed in terms of the Birkhoff-Rott equation, are often used to describe the Kevin-Helmholtz instability of shear layers and are known to be strongly unstable to small-scale perturbations. First, we consider the linear stability of a straight vortex sheet in the periodic setting with actuation in the form of an array of point vortices or sources located a certain distance away from the sheet. We establish conditions under which this system is controllable and observable. Next, using methods of the linear control theory, we synthesize a feedback control strategy which stabilizes a straight vortex sheet in the linear regime. Given the poor conditioning of the discretized problem, reliable solution of the resulting algebraic Riccati equation requires the use of high-precision arithmetic. Finally, we demonstrate that this control approach also succeeds in the nonlinear regime, provided the magnitude of the initial perturbation is sufficiently small.

  2. Magnetic Resonance Facility (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-03-01

    This fact sheet provides information about Magnetic Resonance Facility capabilities and applications at NREL's National Bioenergy Center. Liquid and solid-state analysis capability for a variety of biomass, photovoltaic, and materials characterization applications across NREL. NREL scientists analyze solid and liquid samples on three nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectrometers as well as an electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectrometer.

  3. Object-Oriented Type Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Palsberg, Jens

    1991-01-01

    We present a new approach to inferring types in untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. It guarantees that all messages are understood, annotates the program with type information, allows polymorphic methods, and can be used as the basis of an op-timizing......We present a new approach to inferring types in untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. It guarantees that all messages are understood, annotates the program with type information, allows polymorphic methods, and can be used as the basis of an op...

  4. Statistical Inference for Fractional Diffusion Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, B L S Prakasa

    2010-01-01

    Statistical Inference for Fractional Diffusion Processes looks at statistical inference for stochastic processes modeled by stochastic differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motion. Other related processes, such as sequential inference, nonparametric and non parametric inference and parametric estimation are also discussed. The book will deal with Fractional Diffusion Processes (FDP) in relation to statistical influence for stochastic processes. The books main focus is on parametric and non parametric inference problems for fractional diffusion processes when a complete path of t

  5. Strategic surfaces in sheet metal forming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsson, David Dam; Andreasen, Jan Lasson; Bay, Niels

    Out-line: Introduction to tribology in sheet metal forming Developed strategic surfaces Tribological testing of strategic surfaces Conclusion......Out-line: Introduction to tribology in sheet metal forming Developed strategic surfaces Tribological testing of strategic surfaces Conclusion...

  6. Whooping Cough (Pertussis) - Fact Sheet for Parents

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... months 4 through 6 years Fact Sheet for Parents Color [2 pages] Español: Tosferina (pertussis) The best ... according to the recommended schedule. Fact Sheets for Parents Diseases and the Vaccines that Prevent Them Chickenpox ...

  7. The Probabilistic Convolution Tree: Efficient Exact Bayesian Inference for Faster LC-MS/MS Protein Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serang, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    Exact Bayesian inference can sometimes be performed efficiently for special cases where a function has commutative and associative symmetry of its inputs (called “causal independence”). For this reason, it is desirable to exploit such symmetry on big data sets. Here we present a method to exploit a general form of this symmetry on probabilistic adder nodes by transforming those probabilistic adder nodes into a probabilistic convolution tree with which dynamic programming computes exact probabilities. A substantial speedup is demonstrated using an illustration example that can arise when identifying splice forms with bottom-up mass spectrometry-based proteomics. On this example, even state-of-the-art exact inference algorithms require a runtime more than exponential in the number of splice forms considered. By using the probabilistic convolution tree, we reduce the runtime to and the space to where is the number of variables joined by an additive or cardinal operator. This approach, which can also be used with junction tree inference, is applicable to graphs with arbitrary dependency on counting variables or cardinalities and can be used on diverse problems and fields like forward error correcting codes, elemental decomposition, and spectral demixing. The approach also trivially generalizes to multiple dimensions. PMID:24626234

  8. Plasma heating and acceleration in current sheets formed in discharges in argon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyrie N.P.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to present notion, flares on the sun and other stars, substorms in magnetospheres of Earth and other planets, and disruptive instabilities in tokamak plasma are connected to development of current sheets in magnetized plasma. Therefore, current sheet dynamics and magnetic reconnection processes were studied actively during the last several decades. This paper presents the results of experimental studies of plasma heating and acceleration in current sheets formed in discharges in argon. The temperature and energy of directed motion of argon ions of different degrees of ionization were measured by spectroscopic methods. It was found that Ar II, Ar III and Ar IV ions are localized in different regions of the sheet. It was shown that Ampere forces applied to the sheet can accelerate the argon ions to observed energies.

  9. Particle pitch angle diffusion due to nonadiabatic effects in the plasma sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gray, P.C.; Lee, L.C.

    1982-01-01

    In order to understand certain aspects of the plasma sheet dynamics, a numerical study of the nonadiabatic behavior of particles in a model field geometry is performed. The particle's magnetic moment as a function of time is calculated for various initial parameters, corresponding to various particle energies and degrees of field curvature. It is shown that the magnetic moment changes as the particle passes through the plasma sheet and that the magnitude of the change is related to the curvature of the field at the middle of the plasma sheet. The relation of the magnitude of the change in magnetic moment to the particle's pitch and phase angles as it passes through the sheet is numerically resolved. The nature of the change may be considered as a mechanism for pitch angle diffusion, and the diffusion coefficient is calculated. This scattering mechanism is significant for plasma sheet ions (1--10 keV) as well as energetic electrons (>100 keV)

  10. Distant plasma sheet ion distributions during reconnection

    OpenAIRE

    Owen, C. J.; Mist, R. T.

    2001-01-01

    Previous models of the plasma sheet following reconnection and current sheet acceleration predict 'lima-bean' ion distributions. These are inconsistent with observational constraints. We postulate that following initial interaction with the current sheet, a fraction of outflow ions are backscattered and re-encounter the current sheet. Fermi acceleration processes then generate an additional high-energy outflow population. In the backscatter region these ions form a complete shell in velocity ...

  11. Inference Optimization using Relational Algebra

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evers, S.; Fokkinga, M.M.; Apers, Peter M.G.

    Exact inference procedures in Bayesian networks can be expressed using relational algebra; this provides a common ground for optimizations from the AI and database communities. Specifically, the ability to accomodate sparse representations of probability distributions opens up the way to optimize

  12. Mixed normal inference on multicointegration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boswijk, H.P.

    2009-01-01

    Asymptotic likelihood analysis of cointegration in I(2) models, see Johansen (1997, 2006), Boswijk (2000) and Paruolo (2000), has shown that inference on most parameters is mixed normal, implying hypothesis test statistics with an asymptotic 2 null distribution. The asymptotic distribution of the

  13. Statistical inference on variance components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdooren, L.R.

    1988-01-01

    In several sciences but especially in animal and plant breeding, the general mixed model with fixed and random effects plays a great role. Statistical inference on variance components means tests of hypotheses about variance components, constructing confidence intervals for them, estimating them,

  14. 21 CFR 880.5180 - Burn sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Burn sheet. 880.5180 Section 880.5180 Food and... Burn sheet. (a) Identification. A burn sheet is a device made of a porous material that is wrapped aroung a burn victim to retain body heat, to absorb wound exudate, and to serve as a barrier against...

  15. Simulation of stationary sheet metal cutting processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wisselink, H.H.; Huetink, Han

    1998-01-01

    In stationary sheet metal cutting processes, like guillotining and slitting, the sheet is cut progressively from one end to the other. This in contrary with transient processes (blanking) where the sheet is cut at once. Where transient shearing processes can be modelled in 2-D (plain strain or

  16. Inferring human intentions from the brain data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stanek, Konrad

    discharges across the neural tissue are responsible for emergence of high cognitive function, conscious perception and voluntary action. The brain’s capacity to exercise free will, or internally generated free choice, has long been investigated by philosophers, psychologists and neuroscientists. Rather than......The human brain is a massively complex organ composed of approximately a hundred billion densely interconnected, interacting neural cells. The neurons are not wired randomly - instead, they are organized in local functional assemblies. It is believed that the complex patterns of dynamic electric...... assuming a causal power of conscious will, the neuroscience of volition is based on the premise that "mental states rest on brain processes”, and hence by measuring spatial and temporal correlates of volition in carefully controlled experiments we can infer about their underlying mind processes, including...

  17. Network geometry inference using common neighbors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadopoulos, Fragkiskos; Aldecoa, Rodrigo; Krioukov, Dmitri

    2015-08-01

    We introduce and explore a method for inferring hidden geometric coordinates of nodes in complex networks based on the number of common neighbors between the nodes. We compare this approach to the HyperMap method, which is based only on the connections (and disconnections) between the nodes, i.e., on the links that the nodes have (or do not have). We find that for high degree nodes, the common-neighbors approach yields a more accurate inference than the link-based method, unless heuristic periodic adjustments (or "correction steps") are used in the latter. The common-neighbors approach is computationally intensive, requiring O (t4) running time to map a network of t nodes, versus O (t3) in the link-based method. But we also develop a hybrid method with O (t3) running time, which combines the common-neighbors and link-based approaches, and we explore a heuristic that reduces its running time further to O (t2) , without significant reduction in the mapping accuracy. We apply this method to the autonomous systems (ASs) Internet, and we reveal how soft communities of ASs evolve over time in the similarity space. We further demonstrate the method's predictive power by forecasting future links between ASs. Taken altogether, our results advance our understanding of how to efficiently and accurately map real networks to their latent geometric spaces, which is an important necessary step toward understanding the laws that govern the dynamics of nodes in these spaces, and the fine-grained dynamics of network connections.

  18. Using the glacial geomorphology of palaeo-ice streams to understand mechanisms of ice sheet collapse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokes, Chris R.; Margold, Martin; Clark, Chris; Tarasov, Lev

    2017-04-01

    Processes which bring about ice sheet deglaciation are critical to our understanding of glacial-interglacial cycles and ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. The precise mechanisms of deglaciation are also relevant to our understanding of modern-day ice sheet stability and concerns over global sea level rise. Mass loss from ice sheets can be broadly partitioned between melting and a 'dynamic' component whereby rapidly-flowing ice streams/outlet glaciers transfer ice from the interior to the oceans. Surface and basal melting (e.g. of ice shelves) are closely linked to atmospheric and oceanic conditions, but the mechanisms that drive dynamic changes in ice stream discharge are more complex, which generates much larger uncertainties about their future contribution to ice sheet mass loss and sea level rise. A major problem is that observations of modern-day ice streams typically span just a few decades and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves during deglaciation. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. To address this issue, numerous workers have sought to understand ice stream dynamics over longer time-scales using their glacial geomorphology in the palaeo-record. Indeed, our understanding of their geomorphology has grown rapidly in the last three decades, from almost complete ignorance to a detailed knowledge of their geomorphological products. Building on this body of work, this paper uses the glacial geomorphology of 117 ice streams in the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet to reconstruct their activity during its deglaciation ( 22,000 to 7,000 years ago). Ice stream activity was characterised by high variability in both time and space, with ice streams switching on and off in different locations. During deglaciation, we find that their overall number decreased, they occupied a

  19. Ice sheet hydrology from observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansson, Peter (Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ-, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The hydrological systems of ice sheets are complex. Our view of the system is split, largely due to the complexity of observing the systems. Our basic knowledge of processes have been obtained from smaller glaciers and although applicable in general to the larger scales of the ice sheets, ice sheets contain features not observable on smaller glaciers due to their size. The generation of water on the ice sheet surface is well understood and can be satisfactorily modeled. The routing of water from the surface down through the ice is not complicated in terms of procat has been problematic is the way in which the couplings between surface and bed has been accomplished through a kilometer of cold ice, but with the studies on crack propagation and lake drainage on Greenland we are beginning to understand also this process and we know water can be routed through thick cold ice. Water generation at the bed is also well understood but the main problem preventing realistic estimates of water generation is lack of detailed information about geothermal heat fluxes and their geographical distribution beneath the ice. Although some average value for geothermal heat flux may suffice, for many purposes it is important that such values are not applied to sub-regions of significantly higher fluxes. Water generated by geothermal heat constitutes a constant supply and will likely maintain a steady system beneath the ice sheet. Such a system may include subglacial lakes as steady features and reconfiguration of the system is tied to time scales on which the ice sheet geometry changes so as to change pressure gradients in the basal system itself. Large scale re-organization of subglacial drainage systems have been observed beneath ice streams. The stability of an entirely subglacially fed drainage system may hence be perturbed by rapid ice flow. In the case of Antarctic ice streams where such behavior has been observed, the ice streams are underlain by deformable sediments. It is

  20. Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2017-08-01

    The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

  1. Ohm's law for a current sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, L. R.; Speiser, T. W.

    1985-01-01

    The paper derives an Ohm's law for single-particle motion in a current sheet, where the magnetic field reverses in direction across the sheet. The result is considerably different from the resistive Ohm's law often used in MHD studies of the geomagnetic tail. Single-particle analysis is extended to obtain a self-consistency relation for a current sheet which agrees with previous results. The results are applicable to the concept of reconnection in that the electric field parallel to the current is obtained for a one-dimensional current sheet with constant normal magnetic field. Dissipated energy goes directly into accelerating particles within the current sheet.

  2. Technology to Market Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-02-01

    This fact sheet is an overview of the Technology to Market subprogram at the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative. The SunShot Initiative’s Technology to Market subprogram builds on SunShot’s record of moving groundbreaking and early-stage technologies and business models through developmental phases to commercialization. Technology to Market targets two known funding gaps: those that occur at the prototype commercialization stage and those at the commercial scale-up stage.

  3. Fractal features of a crumpling network in randomly folded thin matter and mechanics of sheet crushing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balankin, Alexander S; Horta Rangel, Antonio; García Pérez, Gregorio; Gayosso Martinez, Felipe; Sanchez Chavez, Hugo; Martínez-González, Claudia L

    2013-05-01

    We study the static and dynamic properties of networks of crumpled creases formed in hand crushed sheets of paper. The fractal dimensionalities of crumpling networks in the unfolded (flat) and folded configurations are determined. Some other noteworthy features of crumpling networks are established. The physical implications of these findings are discussed. Specifically, we state that self-avoiding interactions introduce a characteristic length scale of sheet crumpling. A framework to model the crumpling phenomena is suggested. Mechanics of sheet crushing under external confinement is developed. The effect of compaction geometry on the crushing mechanics is revealed.

  4. The Distribution of Basal Water Beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet from Radio-Echo Sounding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, T.; Williams, C.; Schroeder, D. M.; Martos, Y. M.; Cooper, M.; Siegert, M. J.; Paden, J. D.; Huybrechts, P.; Bamber, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    There is widespread, but often indirect, evidence that a significant fraction of the Greenland Ice Sheet is thawed at the bed. This includes major outlet glaciers and around the NorthGRIP ice-core in the interior. However, the ice-sheet-wide distribution of basal water is poorly constrained by existing observations, and the spatial relationship between basal water and other ice-sheet and subglacial properties is therefore largely unexplored. In principle, airborne radio-echo sounding (RES) surveys provide the necessary information and spatial coverage to infer the presence of basal water at the ice-sheet scale. However, due to uncertainty and spatial variation in radar signal attenuation, the commonly used water diagnostic, bed-echo reflectivity, is highly ambiguous and prone to spatial bias. Here we introduce a new RES diagnostic for the presence of basal water which incorporates both sharp step-transitions and rapid fluctuations in bed-echo reflectivity. This has the advantage of being (near) independent of attenuation model, and enables a decade of recent Operation Ice Bride RES survey data to be combined in a single map for basal water. The ice-sheet-wide water predictions are compared with: bed topography and drainage network structure, existing knowledge of the thermal state and geothermal heat flux, and ice velocity. In addition to the fast flowing ice-sheet margins, we also demonstrate widespread water routing and storage in parts of the slow-flowing northern interior. Notably, this includes a quasi-linear `corridor' of basal water, extending from NorthGRIP to Petermann glacier, which spatially correlates with a region of locally high (magnetic-derived) geothermal heat flux. The predicted water distribution places a new constraint upon the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and could be used as an input for ice-sheet model simulations.

  5. The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, A.; Ivins, E. R.

    2015-12-01

    Fluctuations in the mass of ice stored in Antarctica and Greenland are of considerable societal importance. The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise (IMBIE) is a joint-initiative of ESA and NASA aimed at producing a single estimate of the global sea level contribution to polar ice sheet losses. Within IMBIE, estimates of ice sheet mass balance are developed from a variety of satellite geodetic techniques using a common spatial and temporal reference frame and a common appreciation of the contributions due to external signals. The project brings together the laboratories and space agencies that have been instrumental in developing independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance to date. In its first phase, IMBIE involved 27 science teams, and delivered a first community assessment of ice sheet mass imbalance to replace 40 individual estimates. The project established that (i) there is good agreement between the three main satellite-based techniques for estimating ice sheet mass balance, (ii) combining satellite data sets leads to significant improvement in certainty, (iii) the polar ice sheets contributed 11 ± 4 mm to global sea levels between 1992 and 2012, and (iv) that combined ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have increased over time, rising from 10% of the global trend in the early 1990's to 30% in the late 2000's. Demand for an updated assessment has grown, and there are now new satellite missions, new geophysical corrections, new techniques, and new teams producing data. The period of overlap between independent satellite techniques has increased from 5 to 12 years, and the full period of satellite data over which an assessment can be performed has increased from 19 to 40 years. It is also clear that multiple satellite techniques are required to confidently separate mass changes associated with snowfall and ice dynamical imbalance - information that is of critical importance for climate modelling. This presentation outlines the approach

  6. Modeling the Fracture of Ice Sheets on Parallel Computers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waisman, Haim [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Tuminaro, Ray [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2013-10-10

    The objective of this project was to investigate the complex fracture of ice and understand its role within larger ice sheet simulations and global climate change. This objective was achieved by developing novel physics based models for ice, novel numerical tools to enable the modeling of the physics and by collaboration with the ice community experts. At the present time, ice fracture is not explicitly considered within ice sheet models due in part to large computational costs associated with the accurate modeling of this complex phenomena. However, fracture not only plays an extremely important role in regional behavior but also influences ice dynamics over much larger zones in ways that are currently not well understood. To this end, our research findings through this project offers significant advancement to the field and closes a large gap of knowledge in understanding and modeling the fracture of ice sheets in the polar regions. Thus, we believe that our objective has been achieved and our research accomplishments are significant. This is corroborated through a set of published papers, posters and presentations at technical conferences in the field. In particular significant progress has been made in the mechanics of ice, fracture of ice sheets and ice shelves in polar regions and sophisticated numerical methods that enable the solution of the physics in an efficient way.

  7. Bayesian inference with ecological applications

    CERN Document Server

    Link, William A

    2009-01-01

    This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

  8. Statistical inference on residual life

    CERN Document Server

    Jeong, Jong-Hyeon

    2014-01-01

    This is a monograph on the concept of residual life, which is an alternative summary measure of time-to-event data, or survival data. The mean residual life has been used for many years under the name of life expectancy, so it is a natural concept for summarizing survival or reliability data. It is also more interpretable than the popular hazard function, especially for communications between patients and physicians regarding the efficacy of a new drug in the medical field. This book reviews existing statistical methods to infer the residual life distribution. The review and comparison includes existing inference methods for mean and median, or quantile, residual life analysis through medical data examples. The concept of the residual life is also extended to competing risks analysis. The targeted audience includes biostatisticians, graduate students, and PhD (bio)statisticians. Knowledge in survival analysis at an introductory graduate level is advisable prior to reading this book.

  9. Bayesian Inference on Proportional Elections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio

    2015-01-01

    Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259

  10. Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter

    2015-01-01

    As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...

  11. Statistical inference an integrated approach

    CERN Document Server

    Migon, Helio S; Louzada, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Information The concept of probability Assessing subjective probabilities An example Linear algebra and probability Notation Outline of the bookElements of Inference Common statistical modelsLikelihood-based functions Bayes theorem Exchangeability Sufficiency and exponential family Parameter elimination Prior Distribution Entirely subjective specification Specification through functional forms Conjugacy with the exponential family Non-informative priors Hierarchical priors Estimation Introduction to decision theoryBayesian point estimation Classical point estimation Empirical Bayes estimation Comparison of estimators Interval estimation Estimation in the Normal model Approximating Methods The general problem of inference Optimization techniquesAsymptotic theory Other analytical approximations Numerical integration methods Simulation methods Hypothesis Testing Introduction Classical hypothesis testingBayesian hypothesis testing Hypothesis testing and confidence intervalsAsymptotic tests Prediction...

  12. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

    Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  13. Causal inference based on counterfactuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Höfler M

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept.

  14. Racing for conditional independence inference

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bouckaert, R. R.; Studený, Milan

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 3571, - (2005), s. 221-232 ISSN 0302-9743. [ECSQARU 2005. European Conference /8./. Barcelona, 06.07.2005-08.07.2005] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/04/0393; GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : conditional independence inference * imset * racing algorithms Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics

  15. Statistical inference a short course

    CERN Document Server

    Panik, Michael J

    2012-01-01

    A concise, easily accessible introduction to descriptive and inferential techniques Statistical Inference: A Short Course offers a concise presentation of the essentials of basic statistics for readers seeking to acquire a working knowledge of statistical concepts, measures, and procedures. The author conducts tests on the assumption of randomness and normality, provides nonparametric methods when parametric approaches might not work. The book also explores how to determine a confidence interval for a population median while also providing coverage of ratio estimation, randomness, and causal

  16. On Quantum Statistical Inference, II

    OpenAIRE

    Barndorff-Nielsen, O. E.; Gill, R. D.; Jupp, P. E.

    2003-01-01

    Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, theoretical developments in the theory of quantum measurements have brought the basic mathematical framework for the probability calculations much closer to that of classical probability theory. The present paper reviews this field and proposes and inte...

  17. Nonparametric predictive inference in reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Schrijner, P.; Yan, K.J.

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a recently developed statistical approach, called nonparametric predictive inference (NPI), to reliability. Bounds for the survival function for a future observation are presented. We illustrate how NPI can deal with right-censored data, and discuss aspects of competing risks. We present possible applications of NPI for Bernoulli data, and we briefly outline applications of NPI for replacement decisions. The emphasis is on introduction and illustration of NPI in reliability contexts, detailed mathematical justifications are presented elsewhere

  18. Computational Neuropsychology and Bayesian Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parr, Thomas; Rees, Geraint; Friston, Karl J

    2018-01-01

    Computational theories of brain function have become very influential in neuroscience. They have facilitated the growth of formal approaches to disease, particularly in psychiatric research. In this paper, we provide a narrative review of the body of computational research addressing neuropsychological syndromes, and focus on those that employ Bayesian frameworks. Bayesian approaches to understanding brain function formulate perception and action as inferential processes. These inferences combine 'prior' beliefs with a generative (predictive) model to explain the causes of sensations. Under this view, neuropsychological deficits can be thought of as false inferences that arise due to aberrant prior beliefs (that are poor fits to the real world). This draws upon the notion of a Bayes optimal pathology - optimal inference with suboptimal priors - and provides a means for computational phenotyping. In principle, any given neuropsychological disorder could be characterized by the set of prior beliefs that would make a patient's behavior appear Bayes optimal. We start with an overview of some key theoretical constructs and use these to motivate a form of computational neuropsychology that relates anatomical structures in the brain to the computations they perform. Throughout, we draw upon computational accounts of neuropsychological syndromes. These are selected to emphasize the key features of a Bayesian approach, and the possible types of pathological prior that may be present. They range from visual neglect through hallucinations to autism. Through these illustrative examples, we review the use of Bayesian approaches to understand the link between biology and computation that is at the heart of neuropsychology.

  19. Continuous Integrated Invariant Inference, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed project will develop a new technique for invariant inference and embed this and other current invariant inference and checking techniques in an...

  20. Variational inference & deep learning : A new synthesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, D.P.

    2017-01-01

    In this thesis, Variational Inference and Deep Learning: A New Synthesis, we propose novel solutions to the problems of variational (Bayesian) inference, generative modeling, representation learning, semi-supervised learning, and stochastic optimization.

  1. Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea-level rise from a new-generation ice-sheet model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Gillet-Chaulet

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Over the last two decades, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS has been losing mass at an increasing rate, enhancing its contribution to sea-level rise (SLR. The recent increases in ice loss appear to be due to changes in both the surface mass balance of the ice sheet and ice discharge (ice flux to the ocean. Rapid ice flow directly affects the discharge, but also alters ice-sheet geometry and so affects climate and surface mass balance. Present-day ice-sheet models only represent rapid ice flow in an approximate fashion and, as a consequence, have never explicitly addressed the role of ice discharge on the total GrIS mass balance, especially at the scale of individual outlet glaciers. Here, we present a new-generation prognostic ice-sheet model which reproduces the current patterns of rapid ice flow. This requires three essential developments: the complete solution of the full system of equations governing ice deformation; a variable resolution unstructured mesh to resolve outlet glaciers and the use of inverse methods to better constrain poorly known parameters using observations. The modelled ice discharge is in good agreement with observations on the continental scale and for individual outlets. From this initial state, we investigate possible bounds for the next century ice-sheet mass loss. We run sensitivity experiments of the GrIS dynamical response to perturbations in climate and basal lubrication, assuming a fixed position of the marine termini. We find that increasing ablation tends to reduce outflow and thus decreases the ice-sheet imbalance. In our experiments, the GrIS initial mass (imbalance is preserved throughout the whole century in the absence of reinforced forcing, allowing us to estimate a lower bound of 75 mm for the GrIS contribution to SLR by 2100. In one experiment, we show that the current increase in the rate of ice loss can be reproduced and maintained throughout the whole century. However, this requires a very unlikely

  2. Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-09

    inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

  3. Pulsar glitch dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morley, P. D.

    2018-01-01

    We discuss pulsar glitch dynamics from three different viewpoints: statistical description, neutron star equation of state description and finally an electromagnetic field description. For the latter, the pulsar glitch recovery times are the dissipation time constants of sheet surface currents created in response to the glitch-induced crustal magnetic field disruption. We mathematically derive these glitch time constants (Ohmic time constant and Hall sheet current time constant) from a perturbation analysis of the electromagnetic induction equation. Different crustal channels will carry the sheet surface current and their different electron densities determine the time constants.

  4. VESL: The Virtual Earth Sheet Laboratory for Ice Sheet Modeling and Visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, D. L. C.; Larour, E. Y.; Quinn, J. D.; Halkides, D. J.

    2016-12-01

    We introduce the Virtual Earth System Laboratory (VESL), a scientific modeling and visualization tool delivered through an integrated web portal for dissemination of data, simulation of physical processes, and promotion of climate literacy. The current prototype leverages NASA's Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a state-of-the-art polar ice sheet dynamics model developed at the Jet Propulsion Lab and UC Irvine. We utilize the Emscripten source-to-source compiler to convert the C/C++ ISSM engine core to JavaScript, and bundled pre/post-processing JS scripts to be compatible with the existing ISSM Python/Matlab API. Researchers using VESL will be able to effectively present their work for public dissemination with little-to-no additional post-processing. This will allow for faster publication in peer-reviewed journals and adaption of results for educational applications. Through future application of this concept to multiple aspects of the Earth System, VESL has the potential to broaden data applications in the geosciences and beyond. At this stage, we seek feedback from the greater scientific and public outreach communities regarding the ease of use and feature set of VESL, as we plan its expansion, and aim to achieve more rapid communication and presentation of scientific results.

  5. VESL: The Virtual Earth Sheet Laboratory for Ice Sheet Modeling and Visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, D. L. C.; Larour, E. Y.; Quinn, J. D.; Halkides, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    We present the Virtual Earth System Laboratory (VESL), a scientific modeling and visualization tool delivered through an integrated web portal. This allows for the dissemination of data, simulation of physical processes, and promotion of climate literacy. The current iteration leverages NASA's Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a state-of-the-art polar ice sheet dynamics model developed at the Jet Propulsion Lab and UC Irvine. We utilize the Emscripten source-to-source compiler to convert the C/C++ ISSM engine core to JavaScript, and bundled pre/post-processing JS scripts to be compatible with the existing ISSM Python/Matlab API. Researchers using VESL will be able to effectively present their work for public dissemination with little-to-no additional post-processing. Moreover, the portal allows for real time visualization and editing of models, cloud based computational simulation, and downloads of relevant data. This allows for faster publication in peer-reviewed journals and adaption of results for educational applications. Through application of this concept to multiple aspects of the Earth System, VESL is able to broaden data applications in the geosciences and beyond. At this stage, we still seek feedback from the greater scientific and public outreach communities regarding the ease of use and feature set of VESL. As we plan its expansion, we aim to achieve more rapid communication and presentation of scientific results.

  6. Bayesian inference of synaptic quantal parameters from correlated vesicle release

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander D Bird

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Synaptic transmission is both history-dependent and stochastic, resulting in varying responses to presentations of the same presynaptic stimulus. This complicates attempts to infer synaptic parameters and has led to the proposal of a number of different strategies for their quantification. Recently Bayesian approaches have been applied to make more efficient use of the data collected in paired intracellular recordings. Methods have been developed that either provide a complete model of the distribution of amplitudes for isolated responses or approximate the amplitude distributions of a train of post-synaptic potentials, with correct short-term synaptic dynamics but neglecting correlations. In both cases the methods provided significantly improved inference of model parameters as compared to existing mean-variance fitting approaches. However, for synapses with high release probability, low vesicle number or relatively low restock rate and for data in which only one or few repeats of the same pattern are available, correlations between serial events can allow for the extraction of significantly more information from experiment: a more complete Bayesian approach would take this into account also. This has not been possible previously because of the technical difficulty in calculating the likelihood of amplitudes seen in correlated post-synaptic potential trains; however, recent theoretical advances have now rendered the likelihood calculation tractable for a broad class of synaptic dynamics models. Here we present a compact mathematical form for the likelihood in terms of a matrix product and demonstrate how marginals of the posterior provide information on covariance of parameter distributions. The associated computer code for Bayesian parameter inference for a variety of models of synaptic dynamics is provided in the supplementary material allowing for quantal and dynamical parameters to be readily inferred from experimental data sets.

  7. Synthesis of Graphene Sheets and Their Application for Transparent Conductors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Qingbin

    oxide wrinkles (GOWs) and concentrated graphene oxide wrinkles (CGOWs) by varying the LB processing conditions. The method demonstrated here opens up a new avenue for high-yield fabrication of GOWs or CGOWs that are considered promising materials for hydrogen storage, supercapacitors, and nanomechanical devices. The films produced from UL-GO sheets with a close-packed flat structure exhibit exceptionally high electrical conductivity and transparency after thermal reduction and chemical doping treatments. A remarkable sheet resistance of ˜500 O/sq at 90% transparency is obtained, which outperforms the graphene films grown on a Ni substrate by chemical vapor deposition. The technique used in this work to produce transparent conductive UL-GO thin films is facile, inexpensive, and tunable for mass production. Regarding the theoretical part, the effects of the degree of functionalization, molecular structure and molecular weight of functional groups on the Young's modulus of graphene sheets were investigated through molecular dynamics and molecular mechanics simulations. The dependence of shear modulus, strength and critical wrinkling strain of graphene sheets on the chemical functionalization was also examined. It is found that Young's modulus depends greatly on the degree of functionalization and molecular structure of the functional groups, while the molecular weight of the functional groups plays a minor role in determining Young's modulus. The chemical functionalization also reduces the shear modulus and critical wrinkling strain. The binding energy between the functional groups and the graphene sheets is mainly responsible for these findings.

  8. BARLEY BALANCE SHEET IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragoş Mihai MEDELETE

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Barley is one of the most important cereal grown in Romania, after corn and wheat. This is based, at least on considerations of cultivated area (413.4 thousand ha - average 2007-2009, but also because of the multiple uses it may have (Food, feed, industrial raw materials, etc.. Presentation of food balance we consider interesting in terms of supply and demand components: production, imports, stocks, exports, seeds, feed consumption, industrial raw materials, food and other useslosses. On the basis of total volume of supply and demand we could determine the balance sheet at nationa level for the product.

  9. Vietnamese Hurricane Response Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Các tờ dữ kiện được cung cấp nơi đây mô tả vai trò của EPA trong việc đáp ứng với bão và cách các chương trình cụ thể cung cấp sự hỗ trợ. The Vietnamese fact sheets provided here describe EPA's role in a hurricane response.

  10. Laser welding of sheet metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jian

    Laser welding of sheet metals is an important application of high power lasers, and has many advantages over conventional welding techniques. Laser welding has a great potential to replace other welding technique in the car-body manufacturing because of high laser weld quality and relatively low manufacturing cost associated with the laser technique. However, a few problems related to the laser welding of sheet metals limit its applications in industries. To have a better understanding of the welding process, laser welding experimental studies and theoretical analysis are necessary. Temperature-dependent absorptivities of various metals are obtained theoretically for COsb2, COIL (Chemical Oxygen-Iodine Laser) and Nd:YAG lasers. It is found that the absorptivities for COIL and Nd:YAG lasers are 2.84 and 3.16 times higher than for the COsb2 laser, and the absorptivity increases with increasing temperature of the metals. Surface roughness and oxide films can enhance the absorption significantly. The reflectivity of as-received steel sheets decreases from 65-80% to 30-40% with surface oxide films for COsb2 lasers. Laser welding experiments show that the tensile strengths of the weld metals are higher than the base metals. For samples with surface oxide films, the oxygen concentration in the weld metals is found to be higher than in the specimens without oxidation, and the toughness of the weld metals is degraded. When steel powders are added to bridge the gap between two sheets, the oxygen content in the weld metals decreases and the toughness increases. A mathematical model is developed for the melt depth due to a stationary laser beam. The model results show that the melt depth increases rapidly with time at the beginning of laser irradiation and then increases slowly. Also, the melt depth is found to increase rapidly with laser intensities and then increases slowly for higher intensity. The average rate of melting and the times to reach the melting and boiling

  11. Diagnosing ice sheet grounding line stability from landform morphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwood, S. L.; Simkins, L. M.; Anderson, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    Marine-based ice sheet stability is largely dictated by processes at or near the grounding line, where marine processes, glacial processes and configuration, and the topographic setting govern the duration of grounding line occupation and sensitivity to buoyancy and retreat. Few and short-term observations of processes at modern grounding lines limit the assessment of the spatial and, particularly, temporal stability of ice sheet grounding. In contrast, landforms that are built at the grounding line, such as grounding zone wedges and recessional moraines, are inscribed extensively on formerly glaciated continental margins. These landforms directly mark former grounding line positions over a prolonged period of retreat (thousands of years) and represent the history of sedimentation during the occupation of each position. Beyond being essential for ice sheet reconstructions, there is high potential for extracting information about grounding line dynamics from these morphological products. Here we characterise the morphological traits and spatial distribution of thousands of grounding line landforms from the western Ross Sea continental shelf, which mark East Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat since the Last Glacial Maximum. Recessional moraines indicate a consistency of grounding line processes/setting and regularly forced retreat, while grounding zone wedges are highly variable in size and shape, developing both asymmetry and sinuosity during landform growth. We attribute growth of sinuosity to lateral variability in sediment delivery along the grounding line, linked in part to basal meltwater drainage. We find that this development of sinuosity over time is commonly associated with widely-spaced (i.e. larger-magnitude) retreat events. A `stable' grounding line position of relatively long duration may thus be linked with a more `unstable' retreat event. While landforms vary widely in morphology, landform construction is surprisingly insensitive to the local topographic

  12. Species tree inference by minimizing deep coalescences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Than, Cuong; Nakhleh, Luay

    2009-09-01

    In a 1997 seminal paper, W. Maddison proposed minimizing deep coalescences, or MDC, as an optimization criterion for inferring the species tree from a set of incongruent gene trees, assuming the incongruence is exclusively due to lineage sorting. In a subsequent paper, Maddison and Knowles provided and implemented a search heuristic for optimizing the MDC criterion, given a set of gene trees. However, the heuristic is not guaranteed to compute optimal solutions, and its hill-climbing search makes it slow in practice. In this paper, we provide two exact solutions to the problem of inferring the species tree from a set of gene trees under the MDC criterion. In other words, our solutions are guaranteed to find the tree that minimizes the total number of deep coalescences from a set of gene trees. One solution is based on a novel integer linear programming (ILP) formulation, and another is based on a simple dynamic programming (DP) approach. Powerful ILP solvers, such as CPLEX, make the first solution appealing, particularly for very large-scale instances of the problem, whereas the DP-based solution eliminates dependence on proprietary tools, and its simplicity makes it easy to integrate with other genomic events that may cause gene tree incongruence. Using the exact solutions, we analyze a data set of 106 loci from eight yeast species, a data set of 268 loci from eight Apicomplexan species, and several simulated data sets. We show that the MDC criterion provides very accurate estimates of the species tree topologies, and that our solutions are very fast, thus allowing for the accurate analysis of genome-scale data sets. Further, the efficiency of the solutions allow for quick exploration of sub-optimal solutions, which is important for a parsimony-based criterion such as MDC, as we show. We show that searching for the species tree in the compatibility graph of the clusters induced by the gene trees may be sufficient in practice, a finding that helps ameliorate the

  13. Species tree inference by minimizing deep coalescences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuong Than

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In a 1997 seminal paper, W. Maddison proposed minimizing deep coalescences, or MDC, as an optimization criterion for inferring the species tree from a set of incongruent gene trees, assuming the incongruence is exclusively due to lineage sorting. In a subsequent paper, Maddison and Knowles provided and implemented a search heuristic for optimizing the MDC criterion, given a set of gene trees. However, the heuristic is not guaranteed to compute optimal solutions, and its hill-climbing search makes it slow in practice. In this paper, we provide two exact solutions to the problem of inferring the species tree from a set of gene trees under the MDC criterion. In other words, our solutions are guaranteed to find the tree that minimizes the total number of deep coalescences from a set of gene trees. One solution is based on a novel integer linear programming (ILP formulation, and another is based on a simple dynamic programming (DP approach. Powerful ILP solvers, such as CPLEX, make the first solution appealing, particularly for very large-scale instances of the problem, whereas the DP-based solution eliminates dependence on proprietary tools, and its simplicity makes it easy to integrate with other genomic events that may cause gene tree incongruence. Using the exact solutions, we analyze a data set of 106 loci from eight yeast species, a data set of 268 loci from eight Apicomplexan species, and several simulated data sets. We show that the MDC criterion provides very accurate estimates of the species tree topologies, and that our solutions are very fast, thus allowing for the accurate analysis of genome-scale data sets. Further, the efficiency of the solutions allow for quick exploration of sub-optimal solutions, which is important for a parsimony-based criterion such as MDC, as we show. We show that searching for the species tree in the compatibility graph of the clusters induced by the gene trees may be sufficient in practice, a finding that helps

  14. AI applications in sheet metal forming

    CERN Document Server

    Hussein, Hussein

    2017-01-01

    This book comprises chapters on research work done around the globe in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) applications in sheet metal forming. The first chapter offers an introduction to various AI techniques and sheet metal forming, while subsequent chapters describe traditional procedures/methods used in various sheet metal forming processes, and focus on the automation of those processes by means of AI techniques, such as KBS, ANN, GA, CBR, etc. Feature recognition and the manufacturability assessment of sheet metal parts, process planning, strip-layout design, selecting the type and size of die components, die modeling, and predicting die life are some of the most important aspects of sheet metal work. Traditionally, these activities are highly experience-based, tedious and time consuming. In response, researchers in several countries have applied various AI techniques to automate these activities, which are covered in this book. This book will be useful for engineers working in sheet metal industri...

  15. Computational Neuropsychology and Bayesian Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Parr

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Computational theories of brain function have become very influential in neuroscience. They have facilitated the growth of formal approaches to disease, particularly in psychiatric research. In this paper, we provide a narrative review of the body of computational research addressing neuropsychological syndromes, and focus on those that employ Bayesian frameworks. Bayesian approaches to understanding brain function formulate perception and action as inferential processes. These inferences combine ‘prior’ beliefs with a generative (predictive model to explain the causes of sensations. Under this view, neuropsychological deficits can be thought of as false inferences that arise due to aberrant prior beliefs (that are poor fits to the real world. This draws upon the notion of a Bayes optimal pathology – optimal inference with suboptimal priors – and provides a means for computational phenotyping. In principle, any given neuropsychological disorder could be characterized by the set of prior beliefs that would make a patient’s behavior appear Bayes optimal. We start with an overview of some key theoretical constructs and use these to motivate a form of computational neuropsychology that relates anatomical structures in the brain to the computations they perform. Throughout, we draw upon computational accounts of neuropsychological syndromes. These are selected to emphasize the key features of a Bayesian approach, and the possible types of pathological prior that may be present. They range from visual neglect through hallucinations to autism. Through these illustrative examples, we review the use of Bayesian approaches to understand the link between biology and computation that is at the heart of neuropsychology.

  16. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2013-01-01

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  17. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  18. SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casey, Andrew R.

    2016-01-01

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  19. sick: The Spectroscopic Inference Crank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Andrew R.

    2016-03-01

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  20. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees a...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....... and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last...

  1. Type Inference of Turbo Pascal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Ole Ildsgaard; Schwartzbach, Michael I; Askari, Hosein

    1995-01-01

    Type inference is generally thought of as being an exclusive property of the functional programming paradigm. We argue that such a feature may be of significant benefit for also standard imperative languages. We present a working tool (available by WWW) providing these benefits for a full version...... of Turbo Pascal. It has the form of a preprocessor that analyzes programs in which the type annotations are only partial or even absent. The resulting program has full type annotations, will be accepted by the standard Turbo Pascal compiler, and has polymorphic use of procedures resolved by means of code...

  2. Inferring network structure from cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghonge, Sushrut; Vural, Dervis Can

    2017-07-01

    Many physical, biological, and social phenomena can be described by cascades taking place on a network. Often, the activity can be empirically observed, but not the underlying network of interactions. In this paper we offer three topological methods to infer the structure of any directed network given a set of cascade arrival times. Our formulas hold for a very general class of models where the activation probability of a node is a generic function of its degree and the number of its active neighbors. We report high success rates for synthetic and real networks, for several different cascade models.

  3. Steel Sheet Pile Walls in Soft Soil

    OpenAIRE

    Kort, D.A.

    2002-01-01

    For almost a century, steel sheet pile walls are applied worldwide as earth retaining structures for excavations and quay walls. Within the framework of the development of European structural codes for Civil Engineering works, the Eurocodes, Eurocode 3 Part 5 for design of steel sheet pile walls was issued in 1997. This code offers possibilities for cheaper and safer steel sheet piling, in comparison with the existing design criteria used in most countries. Two of these design criteria with w...

  4. Hydraulic structures with defective sheet pile walls

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed, Ashraf A.; Johnston, Harold T.; Oyedele, Lukumon

    2013-01-01

    A sheet pile wall driven to form a barrier wall below the floor of a hydraulic structure is frequently assumed to be watertight. Although the leakage through the interlocks of the sheet piles is usually small, damage and other factors can result in significant leakage. Consequently, this assumption is rarely, if ever, satisfied in reality. The present study used a finite-element model to investigate the effect of leaks through sheet piles driven under the floor of a hydraulic structure on see...

  5. Application of atelocollagen sheet for sellar reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goto, Yuko; Oshino, Satoru; Shimizu, Takeshi; Saitoh, Youichi

    2016-05-01

    We aimed to evaluate combined use of atelocollagen sheet and fibrin glue for sellar reconstruction. Experiment 1: A plastic chamber was prepared with a hydroxyapatite lid with a hole of 10mm in diameter at its center, covered with a Gore-Tex sheet (W.L. Gore & Associates, Tokyo, Japan) 15mm in diameter and sealed with a combination of fibrin glue sealant and either atelocollagen sheet or polyglycolic acid (PGA) sheet. Air was injected into the chamber and the pressure at which air leakage occurred was measured under each situation. Mean (±standard deviation) leakage pressure was 816±162mmH2O for atelocollagen sheet (n=5), significantly higher than the 557±130mmH2O for PGA sheet (n=5, p<0.05, Wilcoxon test). Experiment 2: Bilateral 5mm bone windows were made in the temporal bone in eight rats. The surgical cavities were filled with one of four materials (fibrin glue only; fibrin glue and atelocollagen sheet; PGA sheet; or autologous fat tissue). Histological changes including the status of implanted materials and inflammatory responses were investigated 2 and 5weeks after the procedures. Both atelocollagen and PGA sheets remained at 5weeks after implantation, whereas fibrin glue and fat tissue were absorbed and undetectable at 2weeks. Inflammatory cell accumulation was less around the atelocollagen sheet compared to the PGA sheet. The combination of atelocollagen sheet and fibrin glue sealant showed sufficient adhesion force and favorable tissue affinity, suggesting this combination as a feasible material in sellar reconstruction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Gadolinium sheet converter for neutron radiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, C.T.S. [Laboratorio de Neutrongrafia em Tempo Real (LNRTR/PEN/COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Ilha do Fundao, Caixa Postal 68509, 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Crispim, V.R. [Laboratorio de Neutrongrafia em Tempo Real (LNRTR/PEN/COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Ilha do Fundao, Caixa Postal 68509, 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); PEN/COPPE-DNC/Escola Politecnica CT, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Ilha do Fundao, Caixa Postal 68509, 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], E-mail: verginia@con.ufrj.br; Santos, W.M.S. [Laboratorio de Colisao Atomica e Molecular (LACAM/IF), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Ilha do Fundao, Caixa Postal 68528, 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2007-12-15

    This work describes a methodology developed for the confection of gadolinium sheet converter for neutron radiography using the gadolinium chloride (GdCl{sub 3}) as material converter. Though manufactured at a relatively low cost, they are as good as the sheet converter on the market. Here, we present neutron radiography of the penetrameter, the edge spread function, the modulation transfer function and characteristic curves for each set sheet-AA400 Kodak film.

  7. Mars's magnetotail: Nature's current sheet laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artemyev, A. V.; Angelopoulos, V.; Halekas, J. S.; Runov, A.; Zelenyi, L. M.; McFadden, J. P.

    2017-05-01

    The configuration and stability of an important kinetic plasma structure, the current sheet, determine the efficiency of magnetic energy storage, release, and transport in surrounding plasmas. These properties depend on β (the ratio of plasma pressures to magnetic field pressures) and Mach number M (the ratio of bulk velocities to magnetosonic velocities). For the most investigated current sheet, the near-Earth magnetotail current sheet, these parameters fall within a relatively narrow range of values (high β, low M). To investigate current sheet behavior for a wider range of parameters, we explore current sheets in the magnetotail of Mars using Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission observations. We find that low-β, high-M current sheets are abundant in Mars's magnetotail, but high-β, low-M current sheets can also be found there. Low-β current sheets are nearly force-free, whereas high-M current sheets are balanced by a plasma flow gradient along the tail. We compare current sheet distributions in a (β,M) space for the Martian magnetotail, the near-Earth magnetotail (using Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) mission), and the distant magnetotail (using Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence, and Electrodynamics of the Moon's Interaction with the Sun (ARTEMIS) mission). We also find that the pressure balance in the Martian magnetotail current sheet can occur by contributions from a wide range of ion species, or, in low beta cases, from field-aligned currents generation of a force-free magnetic field configuration. The Martian magnetotail is a natural laboratory where current sheet of various types can be found and investigated.

  8. Magnetic properties of sheet silicates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballet, O.; Coey, J.M.D.

    1982-01-01

    Susceptibility, magnetisation and Moessbauer measurements are reported for a representative selection of 2:1 layer phyllosilicates. Eight samples from the mica, vermiculite and smectite groups include examples diluted in iron which are paramagnetic at all temperatures, as well as iron-rich silicates which order magnetically below 10 K. Anisotropic susceptibility of crystals of muscovite, biotite and vermiculite is quantitatively explained with a model where the Fe 2+ ions lie in sites of effective trigonal symmetry, the trigonal axis lying normal to the sheets. The ferrous ground state is an orbital singlet. Ferric iron gives an isotropic contribution to the susceptibility. Fe 2+ -Fe 2+ exchange interactions are ferromagnetic with Gapprox. equal to2 K, whereas Fe 3+ -Fe 3+ coupling is antiferromagnetic in the purely ferric minerals. A positive paramagnetic Curie temperature for glauconite may be attributable to Fe 2+ → Fe 3+ charge transfer. Magnetic order was found to set in inhomogeneously for glauconite at 1-7 K. One biotite sample showed an antiferromagnetic transition at Tsub(N) = 7 K marked by a well-defined susceptibility maximum. Its magnetic structure, consisting of ferromagnetic sheets with moments in their planes coupled antiferromagnetically by other, weak interactions, resembles that found earlier for the 1:1 mineral greenalite. (orig.)

  9. Light Sheet Fluorescence Microscopy (LSFM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Michael W; Loftus, Andrew F; Dunn, Sarah E; Joens, Matthew S; Fitzpatrick, James A J

    2015-01-05

    The development of confocal microscopy techniques introduced the ability to optically section fluorescent samples in the axial dimension, perpendicular to the image plane. These approaches, via the placement of a pinhole in the conjugate image plane, provided superior resolution in the axial (z) dimension resulting in nearly isotropic optical sections. However, increased axial resolution, via pinhole optics, comes at the cost of both speed and excitation efficiency. Light sheet fluorescent microscopy (LSFM), a century-old idea made possible with modern developments in both excitation and detection optics, provides sub-cellular resolution and optical sectioning capabilities without compromising speed or excitation efficiency. Over the past decade, several variations of LSFM have been implemented each with its own benefits and deficiencies. Here we discuss LSFM fundamentals and outline the basic principles of several major light-sheet-based imaging modalities (SPIM, inverted SPIM, multi-view SPIM, Bessel beam SPIM, and stimulated emission depletion SPIM) while considering their biological relevance in terms of intrusiveness, temporal resolution, and sample requirements. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  10. BISICLES - A Scalable Finite-Volume Adaptive Mesh Refinement Ice Sheet Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, D. F.; Cornford, S. L.; Ranken, D. F.; Le Brocq, A. M.; Gladstone, R. M.; Payne, A. J.; Ng, E. G.; Lipscomb, W. H.

    2012-04-01

    Understanding the changing behavior of land ice sheets is essential for accurate projection of sea-level change. The dynamics of ice sheets span a wide range of scales. Localized regions such as grounding lines and ice streams require extremely fine (better than 1 km) resolution to correctly capture the dynamics. Resolving such features using a uniform computational mesh would be prohibitively expensive. Conversely, there are large regions where such fine resolution is unnecessary and represents a waste of computational resources. This makes ice sheets a prime candidate for adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), in which finer spatial resolution is added only where needed, enabling the efficient use of computing resources. The Berkeley ISICLES (BISICLES) project is a collaboration among the Lawrence Berkeley and Los Alamos National Laboratories in the U.S. and the University of Bristol in the U.K. We are constructing a high-performance scalable AMR ice sheet model using the Chombo parallel AMR framework. The placement of refined meshes can easily adapt dynamically to follow the changing and evolving features of the ice sheets. We also use a vertically-integrated treatment of the momentum equation based on that of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2010), which permits additional computational efficiency. Using Chombo enables us to take advantage of existing scalable multigrid-based AMR elliptic solvers and PPM-based AMR hyperbolic solvers. Linking to the existing Glimmer-CISM community ice sheet model as an alternative dynamical core allows use of many features of the existing Glimmer-CISM model, including a coupler to CESM. We present results showing the effectiveness of our approach, both for simple benchmark problems which validate our approach, and for application to regional and continental-scale ice-sheet modeling.

  11. Subjective randomness as statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Thomas L; Daniels, Dylan; Austerweil, Joseph L; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

    2018-06-01

    Some events seem more random than others. For example, when tossing a coin, a sequence of eight heads in a row does not seem very random. Where do these intuitions about randomness come from? We argue that subjective randomness can be understood as the result of a statistical inference assessing the evidence that an event provides for having been produced by a random generating process. We show how this account provides a link to previous work relating randomness to algorithmic complexity, in which random events are those that cannot be described by short computer programs. Algorithmic complexity is both incomputable and too general to capture the regularities that people can recognize, but viewing randomness as statistical inference provides two paths to addressing these problems: considering regularities generated by simpler computing machines, and restricting the set of probability distributions that characterize regularity. Building on previous work exploring these different routes to a more restricted notion of randomness, we define strong quantitative models of human randomness judgments that apply not just to binary sequences - which have been the focus of much of the previous work on subjective randomness - but also to binary matrices and spatial clustering. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Sensorimotor Network Crucial for Inferring Amusement from Smiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paracampo, Riccardo; Tidoni, Emmanuele; Borgomaneri, Sara; di Pellegrino, Giuseppe; Avenanti, Alessio

    2017-11-01

    Understanding whether another's smile reflects authentic amusement is a key challenge in social life, yet, the neural bases of this ability have been largely unexplored. Here, we combined transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) with a novel empathic accuracy (EA) task to test whether sensorimotor and mentalizing networks are critical for understanding another's amusement. Participants were presented with dynamic displays of smiles and explicitly requested to infer whether the smiling individual was feeling authentic amusement or not. TMS over sensorimotor regions representing the face (i.e., in the inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) and ventral primary somatosensory cortex (SI)), disrupted the ability to infer amusement authenticity from observed smiles. The same stimulation did not affect performance on a nonsocial task requiring participants to track the smiling expression but not to infer amusement. Neither TMS over prefrontal and temporo-parietal areas supporting mentalizing, nor peripheral control stimulations, affected performance on either task. Thus, motor and somatosensory circuits for controlling and sensing facial movements are causally essential for inferring amusement from another's smile. These findings highlight the functional relevance of IFG and SI to amusement understanding and suggest that EA abilities may be grounded in sensorimotor networks for moving and feeling the body. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Localized fast flow disturbance observed in the plasma sheet and in the ionosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Nakamura

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available An isolated plasma sheet flow burst took place at 22:02 UT, 1 September 2002, when the Cluster footpoint was located within the area covered by the Magnetometers-Ionospheric Radars-All-sky Cameras Large Experiment (MIRACLE. The event was associated with a clear but weak ionospheric disturbance and took place during a steady southward IMF interval, about 1h preceding a major substorm onset. Multipoint observations, both in space and from the ground, allow us to discuss the temporal and spatial scale of the disturbance both in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Based on measurements from four Cluster spacecraft it is inferred that Cluster observed the dusk side part of a localized flow channel in the plasma sheet with a flow shear at the front, suggesting a field-aligned current out from the ionosphere. In the ionosphere the equivalent current pattern and possible field-aligned current location show a pattern similar to the auroral streamers previously obtained during an active period, except for its spatial scale and amplitude. It is inferred that the footpoint of Cluster was located in the region of an upward field-aligned current, consistent with the magnetospheric observations. The entire disturbance in the ionosphere lasted about 10min, consistent with the time scale of the current sheet disturbance in the magnetosphere. The plasma sheet bulk flow, on the other hand, had a time scale of about 2min, corresponding to the time scale of an equatorward excursion of the enhanced electrojet. These observations confirm that localized enhanced convection in the magnetosphere and associated changes in the current sheet structure produce a signature with consistent temporal and spatial scale at the conjugate ionosphere.

  14. Improving Climate Literacy Using The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM): A Prototype Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory For Use In K-12 Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halkides, D. J.; Larour, E. Y.; Perez, G.; Petrie, K.; Nguyen, L.

    2013-12-01

    Statistics indicate that most Americans learn what they will know about science within the confines of our public K-12 education system and the media. Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) aim to remedy science illiteracy and provide guidelines to exceed the Common Core State Standards that most U.S. state governments have adopted, by integrating disciplinary cores with crosscutting ideas and real life practices. In this vein, we present a prototype ';Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory' (I-Lab), geared to K-12 students, educators and interested members of the general public. I-Lab will allow users to perform experiments using a state-of-the-art dynamical ice sheet model and provide detailed downloadable lesson plans, which incorporate this model and are consistent with NGSS Physical Science criteria for different grade bands (K-2, 3-5, 6-8, and 9-12). The ultimate goal of this website is to improve public climate science literacy, especially in regards to the crucial role of the polar ice sheets in Earth's climate and sea level. The model used will be the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), an ice flow model developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and UC Irvine, that simulates the near-term evolution of polar ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and includes high spatial resolution capabilities and data assimilation to produce realistic simulations of ice sheet dynamics at the continental scale. Open sourced since 2011, ISSM is used in cutting edge cryosphere research around the globe. Thru I-Lab, students will be able to access ISSM using a simple, online graphical interface that can be launched from a web browser on a computer, tablet or smart phone. The interface will allow users to select different climate conditions and watch how the polar ice sheets evolve in time under those conditions. Lesson contents will include links to background material and activities that teach observation recording, concept articulation, hypothesis formulation and testing, and

  15. Brief Communication "Expansion of meltwater lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. van den Broeke

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Forty years of satellite imagery reveal that meltwater lakes on the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet have expanded substantially inland to higher elevations with warming. These lakes are important because they provide a mechanism for bringing water to the ice bed, causing sliding. Inland expansion of lakes could accelerate ice flow by bringing water to previously frozen bed, potentially increasing future rates of mass loss. Increasing lake elevations closely follow the rise of the mass balance equilibrium line over much of the ice sheet, suggesting no physical limit on lake expansion. Data are not yet available to detect a corresponding change in ice flow, and the potential effects of lake expansion on ice sheet dynamics are not included in ice sheet models.

  16. A new programme for monitoring the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Gravesen, Peter; Bech Andersen, Signe

    2008-01-01

    The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at a dramatic rate in recent years, raising political concern worldwide due to the possible impact on global sea level rise and climate dynamics (Luthcke et al. 2006; Rignot & Kanagaratnam 2006; Velicogna & Wahr 2006; IPCC 2007; Shepherd & Wingham 2007...... for Monitoring of the Green land Ice Sheet (PROMICE), designed and operated by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) in collaboration with the National Space Institute at the Technical University of Denmark and Asiaq (Greenland Survey). The aim of the programme is to quantify the annual mass loss...... of the Greenland ice sheet, track changes in the extent of local glaciers and ice caps, and track changes in the position of the ice-sheet margin....

  17. Stochastic ice stream dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantelli, Elisa; Bertagni, Matteo Bernard; Ridolfi, Luca

    2016-08-09

    Ice streams are narrow corridors of fast-flowing ice that constitute the arterial drainage network of ice sheets. Therefore, changes in ice stream flow are key to understanding paleoclimate, sea level changes, and rapid disintegration of ice sheets during deglaciation. The dynamics of ice flow are tightly coupled to the climate system through atmospheric temperature and snow recharge, which are known exhibit stochastic variability. Here we focus on the interplay between stochastic climate forcing and ice stream temporal dynamics. Our work demonstrates that realistic climate fluctuations are able to (i) induce the coexistence of dynamic behaviors that would be incompatible in a purely deterministic system and (ii) drive ice stream flow away from the regime expected in a steady climate. We conclude that environmental noise appears to be crucial to interpreting the past behavior of ice sheets, as well as to predicting their future evolution.

  18. Numerical modelling of unsteady 2D sheet cavitation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Lange, D.F.; de Bruin, G.J.; van Wijngaarden, L.; van Wijngaarden, L.

    1996-01-01

    Unsteady 2D sheet cavitation has been calculated by a BEM. Cubics are used to represent various quantities like the potential on the wet part of the profile, the normal velocity on the sheet, the geometry of the profile and the sheet. The growing cavity sheet, the re-entrant jet and the sheet

  19. Bayesian Inference of Tumor Hypoxia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunawan, R.; Tenti, G.; Sivaloganathan, S.

    2009-12-01

    Tumor hypoxia is a state of oxygen deprivation in tumors. It has been associated with aggressive tumor phenotypes and with increased resistance to conventional cancer therapies. In this study, we report on the application of Bayesian sequential analysis in estimating the most probable value of tumor hypoxia quantification based on immunohistochemical assays of a biomarker. The `gold standard' of tumor hypoxia assessment is a direct measurement of pO2 in vivo by the Eppendorf polarographic electrode, which is an invasive technique restricted to accessible sites and living tissues. An attractive alternative is immunohistochemical staining to detect proteins expressed by cells during hypoxia. Carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) is an enzyme expressed on the cell membrane during hypoxia to balance the immediate extracellular microenvironment. CAIX is widely regarded as a surrogate marker of chronic hypoxia in various cancers. The study was conducted with two different experimental procedures. The first data set was a group of three patients with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which five biopsies were obtained. Each of the biopsies was fully sectioned and from each section, the proportion of CAIX-positive cells was estimated. Measurements were made by image analysis of multiple deep sections cut through these biopsies, labeled for CAIX using both immunofluorescence and immunohistochemical techniques [1]. The second data set was a group of 24 patients, also with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which two biopsies were obtained. Bayesian parameter estimation was applied to obtain a reliable inference about the proportion of CAIX-positive cells within the carcinomas, based on the available biopsies. From the first data set, two to three biopsies were found to be sufficient to infer the overall CAIX percentage in the simple form: best estimate±uncertainty. The second data-set led to a similar result in 70% of the cases. In the remaining cases Bayes' theorem warned us

  20. TOMATOES BALANCE SHEET IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragoş Mihai MEDELETE

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Tomatoes are one of the most representative vegetable species cultivated in our country. This allegation is based on the essential elements of tomatoes culture respectively area cultivated, total production and average yield per hectare - indicators for 2007-2009 reached average levels of 48.8 thousand hectares and 736.9 thousand tonnes respectively 15101kg / ha. Presentation of food helps establish balance of the demand and supply component parts total as follows: production, imports, exports (on request food consumption and losses (on request. It is worth noting that in Romania, unlike global and continental do not appear reports for stocks, industrial raw materials, feed consumption, and other uses. Based on the total volume of supply and demand it could be determining the national balance sheet for the product.

  1. Inferring epidemiologic dynamics from viral evolution: 2014–2015 Eurasian/North American highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses exceed transmission threshold, R0 = 1, in wild birds and poultry in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grear, Daniel R.; Hall, Jeffrey S.; Dusek, Robert; Ip, Hon S.

    2018-01-01

    Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is a multihost pathogen with lineages that pose health risks for domestic birds, wild birds, and humans. One mechanism of intercontinental HPAIV spread is through wild bird reservoirs, and wild birds were the likely sources of a Eurasian (EA) lineage HPAIV into North America in 2014. The introduction resulted in several reassortment events with North American (NA) lineage low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses and the reassortant EA/NA H5N2 went on to cause one of the largest HPAIV poultry outbreaks in North America. We evaluated three hypotheses about novel HPAIV introduced into wild and domestic bird hosts: (i) transmission of novel HPAIVs in wild birds was restricted by mechanisms associated with highly pathogenic phenotypes; (ii) the HPAIV poultry outbreak was not self-sustaining and required viral input from wild birds; and (iii) reassortment of the EA H5N8 generated reassortant EA/NA AIVs with a fitness advantage over fully Eurasian lineages in North American wild birds. We used a time-rooted phylodynamic model that explicitly incorporated viral population dynamics with evolutionary dynamics to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) and viral migration among host types in domestic and wild birds, as well as between the EA H5N8 and EA/NA H5N2 in wild birds. We did not find evidence to support hypothesis (i) or (ii) as our estimates of the transmission parameters suggested that the HPAIV outbreak met or exceeded the threshold for persistence in wild birds (R0 > 1) and poultry (R0 ≈ 1) with minimal estimated transmission among host types. There was also no evidence to support hypothesis (iii) because R0 values were similar among EA H5N8 and EA/NA H5N2 in wild birds. Our results suggest that this novel HPAIV and reassortments did not encounter any transmission barriers sufficient to prevent persistence when introduced to wild or domestic birds.

  2. Inferring Toxicological Responses of HepG2 Cells from ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Understanding the dynamic perturbation of cell states by chemicals can aid in for predicting their adverse effects. High-content imaging (HCI) was used to measure the state of HepG2 cells over three time points (1, 24, and 72 h) in response to 976 ToxCast chemicals for 10 different concentrations (0.39-200µM). Cell state was characterized by p53 activation (p53), c-Jun activation (SK), phospho-Histone H2A.x (OS), phospho-Histone H3 (MA), alpha tubulin (Mt), mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP), mitochondrial mass (MM), cell cycle arrest (CCA), nuclear size (NS) and cell number (CN). Dynamic cell state perturbations due to each chemical concentration were utilized to infer coarse-grained dependencies between cellular functions as Boolean networks (BNs). BNs were inferred from data in two steps. First, the data for each state variable were discretized into changed/active (> 1 standard deviation), and unchanged/inactive values. Second, the discretized data were used to learn Boolean relationships between variables. In our case, a BN is a wiring diagram between nodes that represent 10 previously described observable phenotypes. Functional relationships between nodes were represented as Boolean functions. We found that inferred BN show that HepG2 cell response is chemical and concentration specific. We observed presence of both point and cycle BN attractors. In addition, there are instances where Boolean functions were not found. We believe that this may be either

  3. Fact Sheets on Pesticides in Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Coalition against the Misuse of Pesticides, Washington, DC.

    This document consists of a collection of fact sheets about the use of pesticides in schools and how to reduce it. The sheets are: (1) "Alternatives to Using Pesticides in Schools: What Is Integrated Pest Management?"; (2) "Health Effects of 48 Commonly Used Pesticides in Schools"; (3) "The Schooling of State Pesticide…

  4. Advanced friction modeling in sheet metal forming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hol, J.; Cid Alfaro, M.V.; Meinders, Vincent T.; Huetink, Han

    2011-01-01

    The Coulomb friction model is frequently used for sheet metal forming simulations. This model incorporates a constant coefficient of friction and does not take the influence of important parameters such as contact pressure or deformation of the sheet material into account. This article presents a

  5. Steel Sheet Pile Walls in Soft Soil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kort, D.A.

    2002-01-01

    For almost a century, steel sheet pile walls are applied worldwide as earth retaining structures for excavations and quay walls. Within the framework of the development of European structural codes for Civil Engineering works, the Eurocodes, Eurocode 3 Part 5 for design of steel sheet pile walls was

  6. Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Tricht, K.; Lhermitte, S.; Lenaerts, J. T M; Gorodetskaya, I. V.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Noël, B.; Van Den Broeke, M. R.; Turner, D. D.; Van Lipzig, N. P M

    2016-01-01

    The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative

  7. Balance velocities of the Greenland ice sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joughin, I.; Fahnestock, M.; Ekholm, Simon

    1997-01-01

    We present a map of balance velocities for the Greenland ice sheet. The resolution of the underlying DEM, which was derived primarily from radar altimetery data, yields far greater detail than earlier balance velocity estimates for Greenland. The velocity contours reveal in striking detail......, the balance map is useful for ice-sheet modelling, mass balance studies, and field planning....

  8. Antibubbles and fine cylindrical sheets of air

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beilharz, D.; Guyon, A.; Li, E.Q.; Thoraval, Marie-Jean; Thoroddsen, S.T.

    2015-01-01

    Drops impacting at low velocities onto a pool surface can stretch out thin hemispherical sheets of air between the drop and the pool. These air sheets can remain intact until they reach submicron thicknesses, at which point they rupture to form a myriad of microbubbles. By impacting a

  9. Ranking beta sheet topologies of proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fonseca, Rasmus; Helles, Glennie; Winter, Pawel

    2010-01-01

    One of the challenges of protein structure prediction is to identify long-range interactions between amino acids. To reliably predict such interactions, we enumerate, score and rank all beta-topologies (partitions of beta-strands into sheets, orderings of strands within sheets and orientations of...

  10. Spontaneous Trait Inferences on Social Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levordashka, Ana; Utz, Sonja

    2017-01-01

    The present research investigates whether spontaneous trait inferences occur under conditions characteristic of social media and networking sites: nonextreme, ostensibly self-generated content, simultaneous presentation of multiple cues, and self-paced browsing. We used an established measure of trait inferences (false recognition paradigm) and a direct assessment of impressions. Without being asked to do so, participants spontaneously formed impressions of people whose status updates they saw. Our results suggest that trait inferences occurred from nonextreme self-generated content, which is commonly found in social media updates (Experiment 1) and when nine status updates from different people were presented in parallel (Experiment 2). Although inferences did occur during free browsing, the results suggest that participants did not necessarily associate the traits with the corresponding status update authors (Experiment 3). Overall, the findings suggest that spontaneous trait inferences occur on social media. We discuss implications for online communication and research on spontaneous trait inferences.

  11. Sociolinguistic Perception as Inference Under Uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinschmidt, Dave F; Weatherholtz, Kodi; Florian Jaeger, T

    2018-03-15

    Social and linguistic perceptions are linked. On one hand, talker identity affects speech perception. On the other hand, speech itself provides information about a talker's identity. Here, we propose that the same probabilistic knowledge might underlie both socially conditioned linguistic inferences and linguistically conditioned social inferences. Our computational-level approach-the ideal adapter-starts from the idea that listeners use probabilistic knowledge of covariation between social, linguistic, and acoustic cues in order to infer the most likely explanation of the speech signals they hear. As a first step toward understanding social inferences in this framework, we use a simple ideal observer model to show that it would be possible to infer aspects of a talker's identity using cue distributions based on actual speech production data. This suggests the possibility of a single formal framework for social and linguistic inferences and the interactions between them. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  12. Statistical inference for financial engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Taniguchi, Masanobu; Ogata, Hiroaki; Taniai, Hiroyuki

    2014-01-01

    This monograph provides the fundamentals of statistical inference for financial engineering and covers some selected methods suitable for analyzing financial time series data. In order to describe the actual financial data, various stochastic processes, e.g. non-Gaussian linear processes, non-linear processes, long-memory processes, locally stationary processes etc. are introduced and their optimal estimation is considered as well. This book also includes several statistical approaches, e.g., discriminant analysis, the empirical likelihood method, control variate method, quantile regression, realized volatility etc., which have been recently developed and are considered to be powerful tools for analyzing the financial data, establishing a new bridge between time series and financial engineering. This book is well suited as a professional reference book on finance, statistics and statistical financial engineering. Readers are expected to have an undergraduate-level knowledge of statistics.

  13. Inferring echolocation in ancient bats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, Nancy B; Seymour, Kevin L; Habersetzer, Jörg; Gunnell, Gregg F

    2010-08-19

    Laryngeal echolocation, used by most living bats to form images of their surroundings and to detect and capture flying prey, is considered to be a key innovation for the evolutionary success of bats, and palaeontologists have long sought osteological correlates of echolocation that can be used to infer the behaviour of fossil bats. Veselka et al. argued that the most reliable trait indicating echolocation capabilities in bats is an articulation between the stylohyal bone (part of the hyoid apparatus that supports the throat and larynx) and the tympanic bone, which forms the floor of the middle ear. They examined the oldest and most primitive known bat, Onychonycteris finneyi (early Eocene, USA), and argued that it showed evidence of this stylohyal-tympanic articulation, from which they concluded that O. finneyi may have been capable of echolocation. We disagree with their interpretation of key fossil data and instead argue that O. finneyi was probably not an echolocating bat.

  14. Inference and uncertainty in radiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sistrom, Chris

    2006-05-01

    This paper seeks to enhance understanding of the philosophical underpinnings of our discipline and the resulting practical implications. Radiology reports exist in order to convey new knowledge about a patient's condition based on empiric observations from anatomic or functional images of the body. The route to explanation and prediction from empiric evidence is mostly through inference based on inductive (and sometimes abductive) arguments. The conclusions of inductive arguments are, by definition, contingent and provisional. Therefore, it is necessary to deal in some way with the uncertainty of inferential conclusions (i.e. interpretations) made in radiology reports. Two paradigms for managing uncertainty in natural sciences exist in dialectic tension with each other. These are the frequentist and Bayesian theories of probability. Tension between them is mirrored during routine interactions among radiologists and clinicians. I will describe these core issues and argue that they are quite relevant to routine image interpretation and reporting.

  15. Polynomial Regressions and Nonsense Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Polynomial specifications are widely used, not only in applied economics, but also in epidemiology, physics, political analysis and psychology, just to mention a few examples. In many cases, the data employed to estimate such specifications are time series that may exhibit stochastic nonstationary behavior. We extend Phillips’ results (Phillips, P. Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics. J. Econom. 1986, 33, 311–340. by proving that an inference drawn from polynomial specifications, under stochastic nonstationarity, is misleading unless the variables cointegrate. We use a generalized polynomial specification as a vehicle to study its asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Our results, therefore, lead to a call to be cautious whenever practitioners estimate polynomial regressions.

  16. Type inference for correspondence types

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hüttel, Hans; Gordon, Andy; Hansen, Rene Rydhof

    2009-01-01

    We present a correspondence type/effect system for authenticity in a π-calculus with polarized channels, dependent pair types and effect terms and show how one may, given a process P and an a priori type environment E, generate constraints that are formulae in the Alternating Least Fixed......-Point (ALFP) logic. We then show how a reasonable model of the generated constraints yields a type/effect assignment such that P becomes well-typed with respect to E if and only if this is possible. The formulae generated satisfy a finite model property; a system of constraints is satisfiable if and only...... if it has a finite model. As a consequence, we obtain the result that type/effect inference in our system is polynomial-time decidable....

  17. Inference problems in structural biology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsson, Simon

    The structure and dynamics of biological molecules are essential for their function. Consequently, a wealth of experimental techniques have been developed to study these features. However, while experiments yield detailed information about geometrical features of molecules, this information...

  18. Inference problems in structural biology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsson, Simon

    The structure and dynamics of biological molecules are essential for their function. Consequently, a wealth of experimental techniques have been developed to study these features. However, while experiments yield detailed information about geometrical features of molecules, this information is of...

  19. Glacial changes in warm pool climate dominated by shelf exposure and ice sheet albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Nezio, P. N.; Tierney, J. E.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Timmermann, A.; Bhattacharya, T.; Brady, E. C.; Rosenbloom, N. A.

    2017-12-01

    The mechanisms driving glacial-interglacial changes in the climate of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) are unclear. We addressed this issue combining model simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Two drivers - the exposure of tropical shelves due to lower sea level and a monsoonal response to ice sheet albedo - explain the proxy-inferred patterns of hydroclimate change. Shelf exposure influences IPWP climate by weakening the ascending branch of the Walker circulation. This response is amplified by coupled interactions akin to the Bjerknes feedback involving a stronger sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO). Ice sheet albedo enhances the import of cold, dry air into the tropics, weakening the Afro-Asian monsoon system. This "ventilation" mechanism alters temperature contrasts between the Arabian Sea and surrounding land leading to further monsoon weakening. Additional simulations show that the altered SST patterns associated with these responses are essential for explaining the proxy-inferred changes. Together our results show that ice sheets are a first order driver of tropical climate on glacial-interglacial timescales. While glacial climates are not a straightforward analogue for the future, our finding of an active Bjerknes feedback deserves further attention in the context of future climate projections.

  20. Evidence for periodic variations in the thickness of Saturn's nightside plasma sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomsen, M. F.; Jackman, C. M.; Cowley, S. W. H.; Jia, X.; Kivelson, M. G.; Provan, G.

    2017-01-01

    During certain portions of the Cassini mission to Saturn, Cassini made repeated and periodic crossings of the magnetospheric current sheet that lies near the magnetic equator and extends well down the magnetospheric tail. These repeated crossings are part of the puzzling set of planetary period variations in numerous magnetospheric properties that have been discovered at Saturn. During 2010 these periodic crossings often display asymmetries such that the northbound crossing occurs faster than the southbound crossing or vice versa, while at other times the crossings are more symmetric. The character of the crossings is well organized by the relative phase of the northern versus southern perturbation currents inferred in earlier analyses of the magnetic field observations. Further, the dependence of the character of the crossings on the relative phase is consistent with similar asymmetries predicted both by the dual rotating current systems inferred from magnetic field observations and by global MHD models that incorporate the effects of hypothesized atmospheric vortices. The two models are themselves in generally good agreement on those predictions. In both models the asymmetries are attributable to a periodic thickening and thinning of the magnetospheric current sheet, combined with a periodic vertical flapping of the sheet. The Cassini observations thus provide additional observational support to such current systems as a likely explanation for many of the known magnetospheric planetary period variations.

  1. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

    2004-01-01

    We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...... and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing the successful compilation, and efficient inference, on relational Bayesian networks whose {\\primula}--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  2. Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

    2013-01-01

    of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... and computational complexity. We also analyze the impact of transceiver filters on the sparseness of the channel response, and propose a dictionary design that permits the deployment of sparse inference methods in conditions of low bandwidth....

  3. Inference Attacks and Control on Database Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhamed Turkanovic

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Today’s databases store information with sensitivity levels that range from public to highly sensitive, hence ensuring confidentiality can be highly important, but also requires costly control. This paper focuses on the inference problem on different database structures. It presents possible treats on privacy with relation to the inference, and control methods for mitigating these treats. The paper shows that using only access control, without any inference control is inadequate, since these models are unable to protect against indirect data access. Furthermore, it covers new inference problems which rise from the dimensions of new technologies like XML, semantics, etc.

  4. Logical inference techniques for loop parallelization

    KAUST Repository

    Oancea, Cosmin E.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a fully automatic approach to loop parallelization that integrates the use of static and run-time analysis and thus overcomes many known difficulties such as nonlinear and indirect array indexing and complex control flow. Our hybrid analysis framework validates the parallelization transformation by verifying the independence of the loop\\'s memory references. To this end it represents array references using the USR (uniform set representation) language and expresses the independence condition as an equation, S = Ø, where S is a set expression representing array indexes. Using a language instead of an array-abstraction representation for S results in a smaller number of conservative approximations but exhibits a potentially-high runtime cost. To alleviate this cost we introduce a language translation F from the USR set-expression language to an equally rich language of predicates (F(S) ⇒ S = Ø). Loop parallelization is then validated using a novel logic inference algorithm that factorizes the obtained complex predicates (F(S)) into a sequence of sufficient-independence conditions that are evaluated first statically and, when needed, dynamically, in increasing order of their estimated complexities. We evaluate our automated solution on 26 benchmarks from PERFECTCLUB and SPEC suites and show that our approach is effective in parallelizing large, complex loops and obtains much better full program speedups than the Intel and IBM Fortran compilers. Copyright © 2012 ACM.

  5. Bayesian inference of radiation belt loss timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camporeale, E.; Chandorkar, M.

    2017-12-01

    Electron fluxes in the Earth's radiation belts are routinely studied using the classical quasi-linear radial diffusion model. Although this simplified linear equation has proven to be an indispensable tool in understanding the dynamics of the radiation belt, it requires specification of quantities such as the diffusion coefficient and electron loss timescales that are never directly measured. Researchers have so far assumed a-priori parameterisations for radiation belt quantities and derived the best fit using satellite data. The state of the art in this domain lacks a coherent formulation of this problem in a probabilistic framework. We present some recent progress that we have made in performing Bayesian inference of radial diffusion parameters. We achieve this by making extensive use of the theory connecting Gaussian Processes and linear partial differential equations, and performing Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of radial diffusion parameters. These results are important for understanding the role and the propagation of uncertainties in radiation belt simulations and, eventually, for providing a probabilistic forecast of energetic electron fluxes in a Space Weather context.

  6. Logical inference techniques for loop parallelization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oancea, Cosmin Eugen; Rauchwerger, Lawrence

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a fully automatic approach to loop parallelization that integrates the use of static and run-time analysis and thus overcomes many known difficulties such as nonlinear and indirect array indexing and complex control flow. Our hybrid analysis framework validates the paralleliza......This paper presents a fully automatic approach to loop parallelization that integrates the use of static and run-time analysis and thus overcomes many known difficulties such as nonlinear and indirect array indexing and complex control flow. Our hybrid analysis framework validates...... the parallelization transformation by verifying the independence of the loop's memory references. To this end it represents array references using the USR (uniform set representation) language and expresses the independence condition as an equation, S={}, where S is a set expression representing array indexes. Using...... ( F(S) => S = {} ). Loop parallelization is then validated using a novel logic inference algorithm that factorizes the obtained complex predicates F(S) into a sequence of sufficient-independence conditions that are evaluated first statically and, when needed, dynamically, in increasing order...

  7. Moulin density controls drainage development beneath the Greenland ice sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Alison; Hewitt, Ian; Willis, Ian; Arnold, Neil

    2016-12-01

    Uncertainty remains about how the surface hydrology of the Greenland ice sheet influences its subglacial drainage system, affecting basal water pressures and ice velocities, particularly over intraseasonal and interseasonal timescales. Here we apply a high spatial (200 m) and temporal (1 h) resolution subglacial hydrological model to a marginal (extending 25 km inland), land-terminating, 200 km2 domain in the Paakitsoq region, West Greenland. The model is based on that by Hewitt (2013) but adapted for use with both real topographic boundary conditions and calibrated modeled water inputs. The inputs consist of moulin hydrographs, calculated by a surface routing and lake-filling/draining model, which is forced with distributed runoff from a surface energy-balance model. Results suggest that the areal density of lake-bottom moulins and their timing of opening during the melt season strongly affects subglacial drainage system development. A higher moulin density causes an earlier onset of subglacial channelization (i.e., water transport through channels rather than the distributed sheet), which becomes relatively widespread across the bed, whereas a lower moulin density results in a later onset of channelization that becomes less widespread across the bed. In turn, moulin density has a strong control on spatial and temporal variations in subglacial water pressures, which will influence basal sliding rates, and thus ice motion. The density of active surface-to-bed connections should be considered alongside surface melt intensity and extent in future predictions of the ice sheet's dynamics.

  8. eduSPIM: Light Sheet Microscopy in the Museum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahr, Wiebke; Schmid, Benjamin; Weber, Michael; Huisken, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Light sheet microscopy (or selective plane illumination microscopy) is an important imaging technique in the life sciences. At the same time, this technique is also ideally suited for community outreach projects, because it produces visually appealing, highly dynamic images of living organisms and its working principle can be understood with basic optics knowledge. Still, the underlying concepts are widely unknown to the non-scientific public. On the occasion of the UNESCO International Year of Light, a technical museum in Dresden, Germany, launched a special, interactive exhibition. We built a fully functional, educational selective plane illumination microscope (eduSPIM) to demonstrate how developments in microscopy promote discoveries in biology. To maximize educational impact, we radically reduced a standard light sheet microscope to its essential components without compromising functionality and incorporated stringent safety concepts beyond those needed in the lab. Our eduSPIM system features one illumination and one detection path and a sealed sample chamber. We image fixed zebrafish embryos with fluorescent vasculature, because the structure is meaningful to laymen and visualises the optical principles of light sheet microscopy. Via a simplified interface, visitors acquire fluorescence and transmission data simultaneously. The universal concepts presented here may also apply to other scientific approaches that are communicated to laymen in interactive settings. The specific eduSPIM design is adapted easily for various outreach and teaching activities. eduSPIM may even prove useful for labs needing a simple SPIM. A detailed parts list and schematics to rebuild eduSPIM are provided.

  9. The liquid water balance of the Greenland ice sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steger, Christian; Reijmer, Carleen; van den Broeke, Michiel

    2017-04-01

    Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is an increasingly important contributor to global sea level rise. During the last decade, the mass loss was dominated by meltwater runoff. Linking actual runoff from the ice sheet to melt and other forms of liquid water input at the surface (rainfall and condensation) is however complex, as liquid water may be retained within the ice sheet due to refreezing and/or (perennial) storage. In the ablation zone on bare ice, liquid water runs of laterally at the surface, accumulates in supraglacial lakes or enters the ice sheet's en- or subglacial hydraulic system via moulins and crevasses. In the higher elevated accumulation zone, liquid water percolates into the porous firn layer and part of it may be retained due to refreezing and/or perennial storage in so called firn aquifers. In this study, we investigate the liquid water balance of the GrIS focussing on the role of the firn layer. For this purpose, we ran SNOWPACK, a relatively complex one-dimensional snow model, on a horizontal resolution of ˜ 11km and for the transient period of 1960 to 2015. At the snow-atmosphere-interface, the model was forced by output of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.3. A comparison of SNOWPACK with in-situ observations (firn density profiles) and remote sensing data (firn aquifer locations inferred from radar measurements) indicated a good agreement for most climatic conditions. On a GrIS-wide scale, the modelled surface mass balance of SNOWPACK exhibits, in combination with ice-discharge data for ocean-terminating glaciers, an excellent agreement with GRACE data for the period 2003 - 2012. GrIS-integrated amounts of surface melt reveal a significant positive trend (+11.6Gta-2) in the second half of the simulation period. Within this interval, the trend in runoff is larger (+8.3Gta-2) than the one in refreezing (+3.6Gta-2), which results in an overall decrease of the refreezing fraction. This decrease is for instance less

  10. Capturing total chronological and spatial uncertainties in palaeo-ice sheet reconstructions: the DATED example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Anna; Gyllencreutz, Richard; Mangerud, Jan; Svendsen, John Inge

    2017-04-01

    Glacial geologists generate empirical reconstructions of former ice-sheet dynamics by combining evidence from the preserved record of glacial landforms (e.g. end moraines, lineations) and sediments with chronological evidence (mainly numerical dates derived predominantly from radiocarbon, exposure and luminescence techniques). However the geomorphological and sedimentological footprints and chronological data are both incomplete records in both space and time, and all have multiple types of uncertainty associated with them. To understand ice sheets' response to climate we need numerical models of ice-sheet dynamics based on physical principles. To test and/or constrain such models, empirical reconstructions of past ice sheets that capture and acknowledge all uncertainties are required. In 2005 we started a project (Database of the Eurasian Deglaciation, DATED) to produce an empirical reconstruction of the evolution of the last Eurasian ice sheets, (including the British-Irish, Scandinavian and Svalbard-Barents-Kara Seas ice sheets) that is fully documented, specified in time, and includes uncertainty estimates. Over 5000 dates relevant to constraining ice build-up and retreat were assessed for reliability and used together with published ice-sheet margin positions based on glacial geomorphology to reconstruct time-slice maps of the ice sheets' extent. The DATED maps show synchronous ice margins with maximum-minimum uncertainty bounds for every 1000 years between 25-10 kyr ago. In the first version of results (DATED-1; Hughes et al. 2016) all uncertainties (both quantitative and qualitative, e.g. precision and accuracy of numerical dates, correlation of moraines, stratigraphic interpretations) were combined based on our best glaciological-geological assessment and expressed in terms of distance as a 'fuzzy' margin. Large uncertainties (>100 km) exist; predominantly across marine sectors and other locations where there are spatial gaps in the dating record (e.g. the

  11. The last ice-sheet advance and retreat across the Antarctic continental shelf: Synchrony or diachrony?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillenbrand, C.; Livingstone, S. J.; O'Cofaigh, C.; Stokes, C. R.; Vieli, A.; Jamieson, S.; Smith, J.; Kuhn, G.; Melles, M.; Graham, A. G.; Larter, R. D.

    2012-12-01

    Over the last few decades, numerous studies from various sectors of the Antarctic continental shelf have reconstructed the spatial extent of grounded ice-sheet advance during the last glacial period and the timing of its retreat. Most reconstructions were based on the bathymetric mapping of subglacial bedforms on the seabed and the palaeoenvironmental interpretation and dating of sub-seafloor sediments in cores. In addition, surface exposure age dating on rocks from the hinterland using cosmogenic isotopes and ice-sheet models were used to constrain the last ice-sheet advance and retreat. Different regional reconstructions provided consistent results for several study areas. In contrast, recent circum-Antarctic reviews that compiled the spatial and temporal information about maximum ice-sheet advance and retreat from these regional studies came to conflicting conclusions regarding i) the maximum extent of grounded ice, and ii) the synchronous/diachronous behaviour of the northern and southern hemispheric ice sheets and the individual drainage sectors within the Antarctic Ice Sheet, respectively. Resolving these conflicts is essential for identifying the main drivers of Antarctic ice-sheet retreat, evaluating the contribution of Antarctic ice-sheet melting to global sea-level rise over the last ~20 ka, understanding the dynamics of individual drainage sectors within the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and locating possible glacial refuges for benthic organisms on the Antarctic shelf. Here we will present examples of circum-Antarctic reconstructions and discuss possible reasons for conflicting conclusions. In some cases, apparent discrepancies can simply be explained by the ambiguity of terms such as "Last Glacial Maximum", which can refer either to a particular time slice (e.g. 23-19 ka BP) or to the time when grounded ice reached its last maximum extent in a particular sector of the Antarctic continental shelf, and "deglaciation", which can refer either to the time of

  12. Mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (2003-2008) from ICESat data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Louise Sandberg; Simonsen, Sebastian Bjerregaard; Nielsen, Karina

    2011-01-01

    of the Greenland ice sheet. Firn dynamics and surface densities are important factors that contribute to the mass change derived from remote-sensing altimetry. The volume change derived from ICESat data is corrected for changes in firn compaction over the observation period, vertical bedrock movement...... and an intercampaign elevation bias in the ICESat data. Subsequently, the corrected volume change is converted into mass change by the application of a simple surface density model, in which some of the ice dynamics are accounted for. The firn compaction and density models are driven by the HIRHAM5 regional climate......ICESat has provided surface elevation measurements of the ice sheets since the launch in January 2003, resulting in a unique dataset for monitoring the changes of the cryosphere. Here, we present a novel method for determining the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, derived from ICESat...

  13. Analysis of Vibrational Harmonic Response for Printing Double-Sheet Detecting System via ANSYS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qiang; Cai, Ji-Fei; Wang, Yan; Zhang, Yang

    In order to explore the influence of the harmonic response of system vibration upon the stability of the double-sheet detector system, the mathematical model of vibrational system is established via the mechanical dynamic theory. Vibrational system of double-sheet detector is studied by theoretical modeling, and the dynamic simulation to obtain the amplitude/phase frequency response curve of the system based on ANSYS is completed to make a comparison with the theoretical results. It is shown that the theoretical value is basically consistent with that calculated through ANSYS. Conclusion vibrational characteristics of double-sheet detection system is obtained quickly and accurately, and propound solving measures by some crucial factors, such as the harmonic load, mass and stiffness, which will affect the vibration of the system, contribute to the finite element method is applied to the complex multiple-degree-of-freedom system.

  14. Folded Sheet Versus Transparent Sheet Models for Human Symmetry Judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Ninio

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available As a contribution to the mysteries of human symmetry perception, reaction time data were collected on the detection of symmetry or repetition violations, in the context of short term visual memory studies. The histograms for reaction time distributions are rather narrow in the case of symmetry judgments. Their analysis was performed in terms of a simple kinetic model of a mental process in two steps, a slow one for the construction of the representation of the images to be compared, and a fast one, in the 50 ms range, for the decision. There was no need for an additional ‘mental rotation’ step. Symmetry seems to facilitate the construction step. I also present here original stimuli showing a color equalization effect across a symmetry axis, and its counterpart in periodic patterns. According to a “folded sheet model”, when a shape is perceived, the brain automatically constructs a mirror-image representation of the shape. Based in part on the reaction time analysis, I present here an alternative “transparent sheet” model in which the brain constructs a single representation, which can be accessed from two sides, thus generating simultaneously a pattern and its mirror-symmetric partner. Filtering processes, implied by current models of symmetry perception could intervene at an early stage, by nucleating the propagation of similar perceptual groupings in the two symmetric images.

  15. Biological Network Inference and analysis using SEBINI and CABIN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Ronald; Singhal, Mudita

    2009-01-01

    Attaining a detailed understanding of the various biological networks in an organism lies at the core of the emerging discipline of systems biology. A precise description of the relationships formed between genes, mRNA molecules, and proteins is a necessary step toward a complete description of the dynamic behavior of an organism at the cellular level, and toward intelligent, efficient, and directed modification of an organism. The importance of understanding such regulatory, signaling, and interaction networks has fueled the development of numerous in silico inference algorithms, as well as new experimental techniques and a growing collection of public databases. The Software Environment for BIological Network Inference (SEBINI) has been created to provide an interactive environment for the deployment, evaluation, and improvement of algorithms used to reconstruct the structure of biological regulatory and interaction networks. SEBINI can be used to analyze high-throughput gene expression, protein abundance, or protein activation data via a suite of state-of-the-art network inference algorithms. It also allows algorithm developers to compare and train network inference methods on artificial networks and simulated gene expression perturbation data. SEBINI can therefore be used by software developers wishing to evaluate, refine, or combine inference techniques, as well as by bioinformaticians analyzing experimental data. Networks inferred from the SEBINI software platform can be further analyzed using the Collective Analysis of Biological Interaction Networks (CABIN) tool, which is an exploratory data analysis software that enables integration and analysis of protein-protein interaction and gene-to-gene regulatory evidence obtained from multiple sources. The collection of edges in a public database, along with the confidence held in each edge (if available), can be fed into CABIN as one "evidence network," using the Cytoscape SIF file format. Using CABIN, one may

  16. Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojian

    production from CMIP5 data with the model by assuming that the Greenland Ice Sheet is covered in black carbon (lowering the albedo) and perpetually covered by optically thick clouds (increasing long wave radiation). This upper bound roughly triples surface meltwater production, resulting in 30 cm of sea level rise by 2100. These model estimates, combined with prior research suggesting an additional 40-100 cm of sea level rise associated with dynamical discharge, suggest that the Greenland Ice Sheet is poised to contribute significantly to sea level rise in the coming century.

  17. Ice sheet margins and ice shelves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, R. H.

    1984-01-01

    The effect of climate warming on the size of ice sheet margins in polar regions is considered. Particular attention is given to the possibility of a rapid response to warming on the order of tens to hundreds of years. It is found that the early response of the polar regions to climate warming would be an increase in the area of summer melt on the ice sheets and ice shelves. For sufficiently large warming (5-10C) the delayed effects would include the breakup of the ice shelves by an increase in ice drainage rates, particularly from the ice sheets. On the basis of published data for periodic changes in the thickness and melting rates of the marine ice sheets and fjord glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, it is shown that the rate of retreat (or advance) of an ice sheet is primarily determined by: bedrock topography; the basal conditions of the grounded ice sheet; and the ice shelf condition downstream of the grounding line. A program of satellite and ground measurements to monitor the state of ice sheet equilibrium is recommended.

  18. Effect of Inductive Coil Geometry and Current Sheet Trajectory of a Conical Theta Pinch Pulsed Inductive Plasma Accelerator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallock, Ashley K.; Polzin, Kurt A.; Bonds, Kevin W.; Emsellem, Gregory D.

    2011-01-01

    Results are presented demonstrating the e ect of inductive coil geometry and current sheet trajectory on the exhaust velocity of propellant in conical theta pinch pulsed induc- tive plasma accelerators. The electromagnetic coupling between the inductive coil of the accelerator and a plasma current sheet is simulated, substituting a conical copper frustum for the plasma. The variation of system inductance as a function of plasma position is obtained by displacing the simulated current sheet from the coil while measuring the total inductance of the coil. Four coils of differing geometries were employed, and the total inductance of each coil was measured as a function of the axial displacement of two sep- arate copper frusta both having the same cone angle and length as the coil but with one compressed to a smaller size relative to the coil. The measured relationship between total coil inductance and current sheet position closes a dynamical circuit model that is used to calculate the resulting current sheet velocity for various coil and current sheet con gura- tions. The results of this model, which neglects the pinching contribution to thrust, radial propellant con nement, and plume divergence, indicate that in a conical theta pinch ge- ometry current sheet pinching is detrimental to thruster performance, reducing the kinetic energy of the exhausting propellant by up to 50% (at the upper bound for the parameter range of the study). The decrease in exhaust velocity was larger for coils and simulated current sheets of smaller half cone angles. An upper bound for the pinching contribution to thrust is estimated for typical operating parameters. Measurements of coil inductance for three di erent current sheet pinching conditions are used to estimate the magnetic pressure as a function of current sheet radial compression. The gas-dynamic contribution to axial acceleration is also estimated and shown to not compensate for the decrease in axial electromagnetic acceleration

  19. Maximum caliber inference and the stochastic Ising model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cafaro, Carlo; Ali, Sean Alan

    2016-11-01

    We investigate the maximum caliber variational principle as an inference algorithm used to predict dynamical properties of complex nonequilibrium, stationary, statistical systems in the presence of incomplete information. Specifically, we maximize the path entropy over discrete time step trajectories subject to normalization, stationarity, and detailed balance constraints together with a path-dependent dynamical information constraint reflecting a given average global behavior of the complex system. A general expression for the transition probability values associated with the stationary random Markov processes describing the nonequilibrium stationary system is computed. By virtue of our analysis, we uncover that a convenient choice of the dynamical information constraint together with a perturbative asymptotic expansion with respect to its corresponding Lagrange multiplier of the general expression for the transition probability leads to a formal overlap with the well-known Glauber hyperbolic tangent rule for the transition probability for the stochastic Ising model in the limit of very high temperatures of the heat reservoir.

  20. LAIT: a local ancestry inference toolkit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Daniel; Fang, Zhou; Lin, Jerome; Duan, Qing; Li, Yun; Hu, Ming; Chen, Wei

    2017-09-06

    Inferring local ancestry in individuals of mixed ancestry has many applications, most notably in identifying disease-susceptible loci that vary among different ethnic groups. Many software packages are available for inferring local ancestry in admixed individuals. However, most of these existing software packages require specific formatted input files and generate output files in various types, yielding practical inconvenience. We developed a tool set, Local Ancestry Inference Toolkit (LAIT), which can convert standardized files into software-specific input file formats as well as standardize and summarize inference results for four popular local ancestry inference software: HAPMIX, LAMP, LAMP-LD, and ELAI. We tested LAIT using both simulated and real data sets and demonstrated that LAIT provides convenience to run multiple local ancestry inference software. In addition, we evaluated the performance of local ancestry software among different supported software packages, mainly focusing on inference accuracy and computational resources used. We provided a toolkit to facilitate the use of local ancestry inference software, especially for users with limited bioinformatics background.