WorldWideScience

Sample records for sheet dynamics inferred

  1. Plasma dynamics in current sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogdanov, S.Yu.; Drejden, G.V.; Kirij, N.P.; AN SSSR, Leningrad

    1992-01-01

    Plasma dynamics in successive stages of current sheet evolution is investigated on the base of analysis of time-spatial variations of electron density and electrodynamic force fields. Current sheet formation is realized in a two-dimensional magnetic field with zero line under the action of relatively small initial disturbances (linear regimes). It is established that in the limits of the formed sheet is concentrated dense (N e ∼= 10 16 cm -3 ) (T i ≥ 100 eV, bar-Z i ≥ 2) hot pressure of which is balanced by the magnetic action of electrodynamic forces is carried out both plasma compression in the sheet limits and the acceleration along the sheet surface from a middle to narrow side edges

  2. Social Dynamics Modeling and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-03-29

    the experiment(s)/ theory and equipment or analyses. Development of innovative theoretical model and methodologies with experimental verifications...information. The methodology based on communication and information theory (thanks to leave at MIT supported by this research) is described in [J1], [C2...a dynamic system [C1] and as a social learning mechanism in details [J4]. Furthermore, by incentive seeding and rewiring connections, information

  3. Flapping dynamics of a thin liquid sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadivukkarasan, M.; Kumaran, Dhivyaraja; Panchagnula, Mahesh; Multi-phase flow physics Group Team

    2017-11-01

    We attempt to delineate and describe the complete evolution of a thin soap film when air is blown through a nozzle in the normal direction. The sequence of events and its intrinsic dynamics are captured using high speed imaging. By careful observation, it was observed that multiple mechanisms occur in the same system and each event is triggered by an independent mechanism. The events include (a) flapping of a liquid sheet and pinching of the bubble, (b) onset of rupture on the liquid sheet, (c) formation of ligaments and (d) ejection of drops. From this study, it is shown that these events are predominantly governed by Kelvin-Helmholtz instability, Taylor - Culick law, Rayleigh-Taylor instability and capillary instability, respectively. The present experiments can be considered as an extension to the previous studies on soap films as well as thin flapping sheets which has direct relevance to coaxial atomizers used in aircraft applications.

  4. Inferring network topology from complex dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shandilya, Srinivas Gorur; Timme, Marc

    2011-01-01

    Inferring the network topology from dynamical observations is a fundamental problem pervading research on complex systems. Here, we present a simple, direct method for inferring the structural connection topology of a network, given an observation of one collective dynamical trajectory. The general theoretical framework is applicable to arbitrary network dynamical systems described by ordinary differential equations. No interference (external driving) is required and the type of dynamics is hardly restricted in any way. In particular, the observed dynamics may be arbitrarily complex; stationary, invariant or transient; synchronous or asynchronous and chaotic or periodic. Presupposing a knowledge of the functional form of the dynamical units and of the coupling functions between them, we present an analytical solution to the inverse problem of finding the network topology from observing a time series of state variables only. Robust reconstruction is achieved in any sufficiently long generic observation of the system. We extend our method to simultaneously reconstructing both the entire network topology and all parameters appearing linear in the system's equations of motion. Reconstruction of network topology and system parameters is viable even in the presence of external noise that distorts the original dynamics substantially. The method provides a conceptually new step towards reconstructing a variety of real-world networks, including gene and protein interaction networks and neuronal circuits.

  5. Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Bryan

    Understanding the dynamics of biochemical systems can seem impossibly complicated at the microscopic level: detailed properties of every molecular species, including those that have not yet been discovered, could be important for producing macroscopic behavior. The profusion of data in this area has raised the hope that microscopic dynamics might be recovered in an automated search over possible models, yet the combinatorial growth of this space has limited these techniques to systems that contain only a few interacting species. We take a different approach inspired by coarse-grained, phenomenological models in physics. Akin to a Taylor series producing Hooke's Law, forgoing microscopic accuracy allows us to constrain the search over dynamical models to a single dimension. This makes it feasible to infer dynamics with very limited data, including cases in which important dynamical variables are unobserved. We name our method Sir Isaac after its ability to infer the dynamical structure of the law of gravitation given simulated planetary motion data. Applying the method to output from a microscopically complicated but macroscopically simple biological signaling model, it is able to adapt the level of detail to the amount of available data. Finally, using nematode behavioral time series data, the method discovers an effective switch between behavioral attractors after the application of a painful stimulus.

  6. Nonlinear dynamics of thin current sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daughton, William

    2002-01-01

    Observations indicate that the current sheet in the Earth's geomagnetic tail may compress to a thickness comparable to an ion gyro-radius prior to substorm onset. In recent years, there has been considerable controversy regarding the kinetic stability of these thin structures. In particular, the growth rate of the kink instability and its relevance to magnetotail dynamics is still being debated. In this work, a series of fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulations are performed for a thin Harris sheet. The ion to electron mass ratio is varied between m i /m e =4→400 and careful comparisons are made with a formally exact approach to the linear Vlasov theory. At low mass ratio m i /m e <64, the simulations are in excellent agreement with the linear theory, but at high mass ratio the kink instability is observed to grow more rapidly in the kinetic simulations than predicted by theory. The resolution to this apparent discrepancy involves the lower hybrid instability which is active on the edge of the sheet and rapidly produces nonlinear modifications to the initial equilibrium. The nature of this nonlinear deformation is characterized and a simple model is proposed to explain the physics. After the growth and saturation of the lower hybrid fluctuations, the deformed current sheet is similar in structure to a Harris equilibrium with an additional background population. This may explain the large growth rate of the kink instability at later times, since this type of modification to the Harris sheet has been shown to greatly enhance the growth rate of the kink mode

  7. Models for inference in dynamic metacommunity systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, Robert M.; Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Plattner, Matthias

    2010-01-01

    A variety of processes are thought to be involved in the formation and dynamics of species assemblages. For example, various metacommunity theories are based on differences in the relative contributions of dispersal of species among local communities and interactions of species within local communities. Interestingly, metacommunity theories continue to be advanced without much empirical validation. Part of the problem is that statistical models used to analyze typical survey data either fail to specify ecological processes with sufficient complexity or they fail to account for errors in detection of species during sampling. In this paper, we describe a statistical modeling framework for the analysis of metacommunity dynamics that is based on the idea of adopting a unified approach, multispecies occupancy modeling, for computing inferences about individual species, local communities of species, or the entire metacommunity of species. This approach accounts for errors in detection of species during sampling and also allows different metacommunity paradigms to be specified in terms of species- and location-specific probabilities of occurrence, extinction, and colonization: all of which are estimable. In addition, this approach can be used to address inference problems that arise in conservation ecology, such as predicting temporal and spatial changes in biodiversity for use in making conservation decisions. To illustrate, we estimate changes in species composition associated with the species-specific phenologies of flight patterns of butterflies in Switzerland for the purpose of estimating regional differences in biodiversity.

  8. Nonparametric inference of network structure and dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peixoto, Tiago P.

    The network structure of complex systems determine their function and serve as evidence for the evolutionary mechanisms that lie behind them. Despite considerable effort in recent years, it remains an open challenge to formulate general descriptions of the large-scale structure of network systems, and how to reliably extract such information from data. Although many approaches have been proposed, few methods attempt to gauge the statistical significance of the uncovered structures, and hence the majority cannot reliably separate actual structure from stochastic fluctuations. Due to the sheer size and high-dimensionality of many networks, this represents a major limitation that prevents meaningful interpretations of the results obtained with such nonstatistical methods. In this talk, I will show how these issues can be tackled in a principled and efficient fashion by formulating appropriate generative models of network structure that can have their parameters inferred from data. By employing a Bayesian description of such models, the inference can be performed in a nonparametric fashion, that does not require any a priori knowledge or ad hoc assumptions about the data. I will show how this approach can be used to perform model comparison, and how hierarchical models yield the most appropriate trade-off between model complexity and quality of fit based on the statistical evidence present in the data. I will also show how this general approach can be elegantly extended to networks with edge attributes, that are embedded in latent spaces, and that change in time. The latter is obtained via a fully dynamic generative network model, based on arbitrary-order Markov chains, that can also be inferred in a nonparametric fashion. Throughout the talk I will illustrate the application of the methods with many empirical networks such as the internet at the autonomous systems level, the global airport network, the network of actors and films, social networks, citations among

  9. Graphical models for inferring single molecule dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalez Ruben L

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The recent explosion of experimental techniques in single molecule biophysics has generated a variety of novel time series data requiring equally novel computational tools for analysis and inference. This article describes in general terms how graphical modeling may be used to learn from biophysical time series data using the variational Bayesian expectation maximization algorithm (VBEM. The discussion is illustrated by the example of single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (smFRET versus time data, where the smFRET time series is modeled as a hidden Markov model (HMM with Gaussian observables. A detailed description of smFRET is provided as well. Results The VBEM algorithm returns the model’s evidence and an approximating posterior parameter distribution given the data. The former provides a metric for model selection via maximum evidence (ME, and the latter a description of the model’s parameters learned from the data. ME/VBEM provide several advantages over the more commonly used approach of maximum likelihood (ML optimized by the expectation maximization (EM algorithm, the most important being a natural form of model selection and a well-posed (non-divergent optimization problem. Conclusions The results demonstrate the utility of graphical modeling for inference of dynamic processes in single molecule biophysics.

  10. Dynamics of Radially Expanding Liquid Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majumdar, Nayanika; Tirumkudulu, Mahesh S.

    2018-04-01

    The process of atomization often involves ejecting thin liquid sheets at high speeds from a nozzle that causes the sheet to flap violently and break up into fine droplets. The flapping of the liquid sheet has long been attributed to the sheet's interaction with the surrounding gas phase. Here, we present experimental evidence to the contrary and show that the flapping is caused by the thinning of the liquid sheet as it spreads out from the nozzle exit. The measured growth rates of the waves agree remarkably well with the predictions of a recent theory that accounts for the sheet's thinning but ignores aerodynamic interactions. We anticipate these results to not only lead to more accurate predictions of the final drop-size distribution but also enable more efficient designs of atomizers.

  11. Inferring Ice Thickness from a Glacier Dynamics Model and Multiple Surface Datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Y.; Haran, M.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    The future behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have a major impact on future climate. For instance, ice sheet melt may contribute significantly to global sea level rise. Understanding the current state of WAIS is therefore of great interest. WAIS is drained by fast-flowing glaciers which are major contributors to ice loss. Hence, understanding the stability and dynamics of glaciers is critical for predicting the future of the ice sheet. Glacier dynamics are driven by the interplay between the topography, temperature and basal conditions beneath the ice. A glacier dynamics model describes the interactions between these processes. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that integrates multiple ice sheet surface data sets with a glacier dynamics model. Our approach allows us to (1) infer important parameters describing the glacier dynamics, (2) learn about ice sheet thickness, and (3) account for errors in the observations and the model. Because we have relatively dense and accurate ice thickness data from the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, we use these data to validate the proposed approach. The long-term goal of this work is to have a general model that may be used to study multiple glaciers in the Antarctic.

  12. Congested Link Inference Algorithms in Dynamic Routing IP Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance descending of current congested link inference algorithms is obviously in dynamic routing IP network, such as the most classical algorithm CLINK. To overcome this problem, based on the assumptions of Markov property and time homogeneity, we build a kind of Variable Structure Discrete Dynamic Bayesian (VSDDB network simplified model of dynamic routing IP network. Under the simplified VSDDB model, based on the Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (BMAP and Rest Bayesian Network Model (RBNM, we proposed an Improved CLINK (ICLINK algorithm. Considering the concurrent phenomenon of multiple link congestion usually happens, we also proposed algorithm CLILRS (Congested Link Inference algorithm based on Lagrangian Relaxation Subgradient to infer the set of congested links. We validated our results by the experiments of analogy, simulation, and actual Internet.

  13. Dynamic spatial panels : models, methods, and inferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elhorst, J. Paul

    This paper provides a survey of the existing literature on the specification and estimation of dynamic spatial panel data models, a collection of models for spatial panels extended to include one or more of the following variables and/or error terms: a dependent variable lagged in time, a dependent

  14. Dynamics of a radially expanding liquid sheet: Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majumdar, Nayanika; Tirumkudulu, Mahesh

    2017-11-01

    A recent theory predicts that sinuous waves generated at the center of a radially expanding liquid sheet grow spatially even in absence of a surrounding gas phase. Unlike flat liquid sheets, the thickness of a radially expanding liquid sheet varies inversely with distance from the center of the sheet. To test the predictions of the theory, experiments were carried out on a horizontal, radially expanding liquid sheet formed by collision of a single jet on a solid impactor. The latter was placed on a speaker-vibrator with controlled amplitude and frequency. The growth of sinuous waves was determined by measuring the wave surface inclination angle using reflected laser light under both atmospheric and sub-atmospheric pressure conditions. It is shown that the measured growth rate matches with the predictions of the theory over a large range of Weber numbers for both pressure conditions suggesting that the thinning of the liquid sheet plays a dominant role in setting the growth rate of sinuous waves with minimal influence of the surrounding gas phase on its dynamics. IIT Bombay.

  15. Dynamic characteristics of automotive steel sheets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mihaliková

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this experimental research was to perform an analysis of deformation characteristics on two different types of steel: IF steel, and micro-alloyed steel were used automotive industry. For that purpose changes of properties of these materials were carried out by static 10-3 · s-1 and dynamic 103 · s-1 strain rate assess its plastic properties. Vickers micro hardness test was carried out by the static and dynamic loading condition and describes different hardness distribution. The higher strain hardening of materials was obtained too that was confirmed by distribution of dislocations.

  16. Influence of electrical sheet width on dynamic magnetic properties

    CERN Document Server

    Chevalier, T; Cornut, B

    2000-01-01

    Effects of the width of electrical steel sheets on dynamic magnetic properties are investigated by solving diffusion equation on the cross-section of the sheet. Linear and non-linear cases are studied, and are compared with measurement on Epstein frame. For the first one an analytical solution is found, while for the second, a 2D finite element simulation is achieved. The influence of width is highlighted for a width thickness ratio lower than 10. It is shown that the behaviour modification in such cases is conditioned by the excitation signal waveform, amplitude and also frequency.

  17. Bayesian Inference of High-Dimensional Dynamical Ocean Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, J.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.; Lolla, S. V. T.; Gupta, A.; Haley, P. J., Jr.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation addresses a holistic set of challenges in high-dimension ocean Bayesian nonlinear estimation: i) predict the probability distribution functions (pdfs) of large nonlinear dynamical systems using stochastic partial differential equations (PDEs); ii) assimilate data using Bayes' law with these pdfs; iii) predict the future data that optimally reduce uncertainties; and (iv) rank the known and learn the new model formulations themselves. Overall, we allow the joint inference of the state, equations, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions of dynamical models. Examples are provided for time-dependent fluid and ocean flows, including cavity, double-gyre and Strait flows with jets and eddies. The Bayesian model inference, based on limited observations, is illustrated first by the estimation of obstacle shapes and positions in fluid flows. Next, the Bayesian inference of biogeochemical reaction equations and of their states and parameters is presented, illustrating how PDE-based machine learning can rigorously guide the selection and discovery of complex ecosystem models. Finally, the inference of multiscale bottom gravity current dynamics is illustrated, motivated in part by classic overflows and dense water formation sites and their relevance to climate monitoring and dynamics. This is joint work with our MSEAS group at MIT.

  18. The impact of dynamic topography on the bedrock elevation and volume of the Pliocene Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austermann, Jacqueline; Pollard, David; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Moucha, Robert; Forte, Alessandro M.; DeConto, Robert M.

    2015-04-01

    Reconstructions of the Antarctic ice sheet over long timescales (i.e. Myrs) require estimates of bedrock elevation through time. Ice sheet models have accounted, with varying levels of sophistication, for changes in the bedrock elevation due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), but they have neglected other processes that may perturb topography. One notable example is dynamic topography, the deflection of the solid surface of the Earth due to convective flow within the mantle. Numerically predicted changes in dynamic topography have been used to correct paleo shorelines for this departure from eustasy, but the effect of such changes on ice sheet stability is unknown. In this study we use numerical predictions of time-varying dynamic topography to reconstruct bedrock elevation below the Antarctic ice sheet during the mid Pliocene warm period (~3 Ma). Moreover, we couple this reconstruction to a three-dimensional ice sheet model to explore the impact of dynamic topography on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet since the Pliocene. Our modeling indicates significant uplift in the area of the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) and the adjacent Wilkes basin. This predicted uplift, which is at the lower end of geological inferences of uplift of the TAM, implies a lower elevation of the basin in the Pliocene. Relative to simulations that do not include dynamic topography, the lower elevation leads to a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet volume and a more significant retreat of the grounding line in the Wilkes basin, both of which are consistent with offshore sediment core data. We conclude that reconstructions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene warm period should be based on bedrock elevation models that include the impact of both GIA and dynamic topography.

  19. Inference for occupancy and occupancy dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Allan F.; Bailey, Larissa L.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K. Ullas

    2011-01-01

    This chapter deals with the estimation of occupancy as a state variable to assess the status of, and track changes in, species distributions when sampling with camera traps. Much of the recent interest in occupancy estimation and modeling originated from the models developed by MacKenzie et al. (2002, 2003), although similar methods were developed independently (Azuma et al. 1990; Bayley and Petersen 2001; Nichols and Karanth, 2002; Tyre et al. 2003), all of which deal with species occurrence information and imperfect detection. Less than a decade after these publications, the modeling and estimation of species occurrence and occupancy dynamics have increased significantly. Special features of scientific journals have explored innovative uses of detection–nondetection data with occupancy models (Vojta 2005), and an entire volume has synthesized the use and application of occupancy estimation methods (MacKenzie et al. 2006). Reviews of the topical concepts, philosophical considerations, and various sampling designs that can be used for occupancy estimation are now readily available for a range of audiences (MacKenzie and Royle 2005; MacKenzie et al. 2006; Bailey et al. 2007; Royle and Dorazio 2008; Conroy and Carroll 2009; Kendall and White 2009; Hines et al. 2010; Link and Barker 2010). As a result, it would be pointless here to recast all that these publications have so eloquently articulated, but that said, a review of any scientific topic requires sufficient context and relevant background information, especially when relatively new methodologies and techniques such as occupancy estimation and camera traps are involved. This is especially critical in a digital age where new information is published at warp speed, making it increasingly difficult to stay abreast of theoretical advances and research developments.

  20. Statistical inference for noisy nonlinear ecological dynamic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Simon N

    2010-08-26

    Chaotic ecological dynamic systems defy conventional statistical analysis. Systems with near-chaotic dynamics are little better. Such systems are almost invariably driven by endogenous dynamic processes plus demographic and environmental process noise, and are only observable with error. Their sensitivity to history means that minute changes in the driving noise realization, or the system parameters, will cause drastic changes in the system trajectory. This sensitivity is inherited and amplified by the joint probability density of the observable data and the process noise, rendering it useless as the basis for obtaining measures of statistical fit. Because the joint density is the basis for the fit measures used by all conventional statistical methods, this is a major theoretical shortcoming. The inability to make well-founded statistical inferences about biological dynamic models in the chaotic and near-chaotic regimes, other than on an ad hoc basis, leaves dynamic theory without the methods of quantitative validation that are essential tools in the rest of biological science. Here I show that this impasse can be resolved in a simple and general manner, using a method that requires only the ability to simulate the observed data on a system from the dynamic model about which inferences are required. The raw data series are reduced to phase-insensitive summary statistics, quantifying local dynamic structure and the distribution of observations. Simulation is used to obtain the mean and the covariance matrix of the statistics, given model parameters, allowing the construction of a 'synthetic likelihood' that assesses model fit. This likelihood can be explored using a straightforward Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, but one further post-processing step returns pure likelihood-based inference. I apply the method to establish the dynamic nature of the fluctuations in Nicholson's classic blowfly experiments.

  1. Dynamics of fluid lines, sheets, filaments and membranes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutris, N.

    1988-01-01

    We establish the dynamic equations of two types of fluid structures: 1) lines-filaments and 2) sheets-membranes. In the first part, we consider one-dimensional (line) and two-dimensional (sheet) fluid structures. The second part concerns the associated three- dimensional structures: filaments and membranes. In the third part, we establish the equations for thickened lines and thickened sheets. For that purpose, we introduce a thickness in the models of the first part. The fourth part concerns the thinning of the filament and the membrane. Then, by an asymptotic process, we deduce the corresponding equations from the equations of the second part in order to show the purely formal equivalence of the equations of the third and fourth parts. To obtain the equations, we make use of theorems whose proofs can be found in the appendices. The equations can be applied to many areas of interest: instabilities of liquid jets and liquid films, modelisation of interfaces between two different fluids as sheets or membranes, modelisation with the averaged equations over a cross section of single phase flows and two-phase flows in channels with a nonrectilinear axis such as bends or pump casings [fr

  2. Evolution in Mind: Evolutionary Dynamics, Cognitive Processes, and Bayesian Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suchow, Jordan W; Bourgin, David D; Griffiths, Thomas L

    2017-07-01

    Evolutionary theory describes the dynamics of population change in settings affected by reproduction, selection, mutation, and drift. In the context of human cognition, evolutionary theory is most often invoked to explain the origins of capacities such as language, metacognition, and spatial reasoning, framing them as functional adaptations to an ancestral environment. However, evolutionary theory is useful for understanding the mind in a second way: as a mathematical framework for describing evolving populations of thoughts, ideas, and memories within a single mind. In fact, deep correspondences exist between the mathematics of evolution and of learning, with perhaps the deepest being an equivalence between certain evolutionary dynamics and Bayesian inference. This equivalence permits reinterpretation of evolutionary processes as algorithms for Bayesian inference and has relevance for understanding diverse cognitive capacities, including memory and creativity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Sign Inference for Dynamic Signed Networks via Dictionary Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Cen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mobile online social network (mOSN is a burgeoning research area. However, most existing works referring to mOSNs deal with static network structures and simply encode whether relationships among entities exist or not. In contrast, relationships in signed mOSNs can be positive or negative and may be changed with time and locations. Applying certain global characteristics of social balance, in this paper, we aim to infer the unknown relationships in dynamic signed mOSNs and formulate this sign inference problem as a low-rank matrix estimation problem. Specifically, motivated by the Singular Value Thresholding (SVT algorithm, a compact dictionary is selected from the observed dataset. Based on this compact dictionary, the relationships in the dynamic signed mOSNs are estimated via solving the formulated problem. Furthermore, the estimation accuracy is improved by employing a dictionary self-updating mechanism.

  4. Neuronal integration of dynamic sources: Bayesian learning and Bayesian inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegelmann, Hava T; Holzman, Lars E

    2010-09-01

    One of the brain's most basic functions is integrating sensory data from diverse sources. This ability causes us to question whether the neural system is computationally capable of intelligently integrating data, not only when sources have known, fixed relative dependencies but also when it must determine such relative weightings based on dynamic conditions, and then use these learned weightings to accurately infer information about the world. We suggest that the brain is, in fact, fully capable of computing this parallel task in a single network and describe a neural inspired circuit with this property. Our implementation suggests the possibility that evidence learning requires a more complex organization of the network than was previously assumed, where neurons have different specialties, whose emergence brings the desired adaptivity seen in human online inference.

  5. Dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet over multiple timescales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Kristian Kjellerup

    to further constrain the individual components of the current budget, and in conjunction with longer records, it is important to provide a trustworthy basis for future projections. In this thesis, using airborne- and satellite derived data combined with terrestrial and marine observations, the dynamic...... become grounded and also assuming a similar warming pattern. This thesis implies that in order to investigate the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to future climate change much is to be gained by merging and incorporating data from both marine and terrestrial geology, combined with air- and satellite...

  6. The impact of dynamic topography change on Antarctic Ice Sheet stability during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austermann, J.; Pollard, D.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Moucha, R.; Forte, A. M.; Deconto, R. M.; Rowley, D. B.; Raymo, M. E.

    2015-12-01

    The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~ 3Ma), characterized by globally elevated temperatures (2-3º C) and carbon dioxide levels of ~400ppm, is commonly used as a testing ground for investigating ice sheet stability in a slightly warmer world. The central, unanswered question in this regard is the extent of East Antarctic melting during the MPWP. Here we assess the potential role of dynamic topography on this issue. Model reconstructions of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the ice age require an estimate of bedrock elevation through time. Ice sheet models account for changes in bedrock elevation due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), often using simplified models of the GIA process, but they generally do not consider other processes that may perturb subglacial topography. One such notable process is dynamic topography, i.e. the deflection of the solid surface of the Earth due to convective flow and buoyancy variations within the mantle and lithosphere. Paleo-shorelines of Pliocene age reflect the influence of dynamic topography, but the impact of these bedrock elevation changes on ice sheet stability in the Antarctic region is unknown. In this study we use viscous flow simulations of mantle dynamics to predict changes in dynamic topography and reconstruct bedrock elevations below the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the MPWP. We furthermore couple this reconstruction to a three-dimensional ice sheet model in order to explore the impact of dynamic topography on the extent of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Pliocene. Our modeling indicates that uplift occurred in the area of the Transantarctic Mountains and the adjacent Wilkes Basin. This predicted uplift, which is consistent with geological inferences of uplift in the Transantarctic Mountains, implies a significantly (~100-200 m) lower elevation of the Wilkes Basin in the Pliocene. This lower elevation leads to ~400 km of additional retreat of the grounding line in this region relative to simulations

  7. Visual recognition and inference using dynamic overcomplete sparse learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Joseph F; Kreutz-Delgado, Kenneth

    2007-09-01

    We present a hierarchical architecture and learning algorithm for visual recognition and other visual inference tasks such as imagination, reconstruction of occluded images, and expectation-driven segmentation. Using properties of biological vision for guidance, we posit a stochastic generative world model and from it develop a simplified world model (SWM) based on a tractable variational approximation that is designed to enforce sparse coding. Recent developments in computational methods for learning overcomplete representations (Lewicki & Sejnowski, 2000; Teh, Welling, Osindero, & Hinton, 2003) suggest that overcompleteness can be useful for visual tasks, and we use an overcomplete dictionary learning algorithm (Kreutz-Delgado, et al., 2003) as a preprocessing stage to produce accurate, sparse codings of images. Inference is performed by constructing a dynamic multilayer network with feedforward, feedback, and lateral connections, which is trained to approximate the SWM. Learning is done with a variant of the back-propagation-through-time algorithm, which encourages convergence to desired states within a fixed number of iterations. Vision tasks require large networks, and to make learning efficient, we take advantage of the sparsity of each layer to update only a small subset of elements in a large weight matrix at each iteration. Experiments on a set of rotated objects demonstrate various types of visual inference and show that increasing the degree of overcompleteness improves recognition performance in difficult scenes with occluded objects in clutter.

  8. Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 9: This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods based on a maximum likelihood or Bayesian approach combined with markov chain Monte Carlo...... (MCMC) techniques. Due to space limitations the focus is on spatial point processes....

  9. Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    (This text written by Jesper Møller, Aalborg University, is submitted for the collection ‘Stochastic Geometry: Highlights, Interactions and New Perspectives', edited by Wilfrid S. Kendall and Ilya Molchanov, to be published by ClarendonPress, Oxford, and planned to appear as Section 4.1 with the ......(This text written by Jesper Møller, Aalborg University, is submitted for the collection ‘Stochastic Geometry: Highlights, Interactions and New Perspectives', edited by Wilfrid S. Kendall and Ilya Molchanov, to be published by ClarendonPress, Oxford, and planned to appear as Section 4.......1 with the title ‘Inference'.) This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Due to space limitations the focus...

  10. Dynamical 3-Space: Cosmic Filaments, Sheets and Voids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cahill R. T.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Observations of weak gravitational lensing combined with statistical tomographic techniques have revealed that galaxies have formed along filaments, essentially one- dimensional lines or strings, which form sheets and voids. These have, in the main, been interpreted as “dark matter” effects. To the contrary here we report the discovery that the dynamical 3-space theory possesses such filamentary solutions. These solutions are purely space self-interaction effects, and are attractive to matter, and as well gener- ate electromagnetic lensing. This theory of space has explained bore hole anomalies, supermassive black hole masses in spherical galaxies and globular clusters, flat rota- tion curves of spiral galaxies, and other gravitational anomalies. The theory has two constants, G and , where the bore hole experiments show that 1 = 137 is the fine structure constant.

  11. Dynamical 3-Space: Cosmic Filaments, Sheets and Voids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cahill R. T.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Observations of weak gravitational lensing combined with statistical tomographic techniques have revealed that galaxies have formed along filaments, essentially one-dimensional lines or strings, which form sheets and voids. These have, in the main, been interpreted as "dark matter" effects. To the contrary here we report the discovery that the dynamical 3-space theory possesses such filamentary solutions. These solutions are purely space self-interaction effects, and are attractive to matter, and as well generate electromagnetic lensing. This theory of space has explained bore hole anomalies, supermassive black hole masses in spherical galaxies and globular clusters, flat rotation curves of spiral galaxies, and other gravitational anomalies. The theory has two constants, $G$ and $alpha$, where the bore hole experiments show that $alpha approx 1/137$ is the fine structure constant.

  12. Reconstructing the last Irish Ice Sheet 2: a geomorphologically-driven model of ice sheet growth, retreat and dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwood, Sarah L.; Clark, Chris D.

    2009-12-01

    The ice sheet that once covered Ireland has a long history of investigation. Much prior work focussed on localised evidence-based reconstructions and ice-marginal dynamics and chronologies, with less attention paid to an ice sheet wide view of the first order properties of the ice sheet: centres of mass, ice divide structure, ice flow geometry and behaviour and changes thereof. In this paper we focus on the latter aspect and use our new, countrywide glacial geomorphological mapping of the Irish landscape (>39 000 landforms), and our analysis of the palaeo-glaciological significance of observed landform assemblages (article Part 1), to build an ice sheet reconstruction yielding these fundamental ice sheet properties. We present a seven stage model of ice sheet evolution, from initiation to demise, in the form of palaeo-geographic maps. An early incursion of ice from Scotland likely coalesced with local ice caps and spread in a south-westerly direction 200 km across Ireland. A semi-independent Irish Ice Sheet was then established during ice sheet growth, with a branching ice divide structure whose main axis migrated up to 140 km from the west coast towards the east. Ice stream systems converging on Donegal Bay in the west and funnelling through the North Channel and Irish Sea Basin in the east emerge as major flow components of the maximum stages of glaciation. Ice cover is reconstructed as extending to the continental shelf break. The Irish Ice Sheet became autonomous (i.e. separate from the British Ice Sheet) during deglaciation and fragmented into multiple ice masses, each decaying towards the west. Final sites of demise were likely over the mountains of Donegal, Leitrim and Connemara. Patterns of growth and decay of the ice sheet are shown to be radically different: asynchronous and asymmetric in both spatial and temporal domains. We implicate collapse of the ice stream system in the North Channel - Irish Sea Basin in driving such asymmetry, since rapid

  13. Quantitative inference of dynamic regulatory pathways via microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Bor-Sen

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The cellular signaling pathway (network is one of the main topics of organismic investigations. The intracellular interactions between genes in a signaling pathway are considered as the foundation of functional genomics. Thus, what genes and how much they influence each other through transcriptional binding or physical interactions are essential problems. Under the synchronous measures of gene expression via a microarray chip, an amount of dynamic information is embedded and remains to be discovered. Using a systematically dynamic modeling approach, we explore the causal relationship among genes in cellular signaling pathways from the system biology approach. Results In this study, a second-order dynamic model is developed to describe the regulatory mechanism of a target gene from the upstream causality point of view. From the expression profile and dynamic model of a target gene, we can estimate its upstream regulatory function. According to this upstream regulatory function, we would deduce the upstream regulatory genes with their regulatory abilities and activation delays, and then link up a regulatory pathway. Iteratively, these regulatory genes are considered as target genes to trace back their upstream regulatory genes. Then we could construct the regulatory pathway (or network to the genome wide. In short, we can infer the genetic regulatory pathways from gene-expression profiles quantitatively, which can confirm some doubted paths or seek some unknown paths in a regulatory pathway (network. Finally, the proposed approach is validated by randomly reshuffling the time order of microarray data. Conclusion We focus our algorithm on the inference of regulatory abilities of the identified causal genes, and how much delay before they regulate the downstream genes. With this information, a regulatory pathway would be built up using microarray data. In the present study, two signaling pathways, i.e. circadian regulatory

  14. Statistical study of plasma sheet dynamics using ISEE 1 and 2 energetic particle flux data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dandouras, J.; Reme, H.; Saint-Marc, A.; Sauvaud, J.A.; Parks, G.K.; Anderson, K.A.; Lin, R.P.

    1986-01-01

    During magnetospheric substorms, satellites embedded in the plasma sheet often detect transient dropouts of plasma and energetic particle fluxes, a phenomemon generally interpreted as indicating the exit of the satellite into the magnetospheric lobe due to a plasma sheet thinning. In order to determine the large-scale dynamics of the near-earth plasma sheet during substorms, three satellite years of ISEE 1 and 2 energetic particle flux data (1.5 and 6 keV), corresponding to 461 particle flux dropouts, have been analyzed. The principal results show that flux dropouts can be observed anywhere in the nightside plasma sheet, independent of the satellite's geocentric distance (for R>12R/sub E/), magnetic local time (except near the magnetospheric flanks) and estimated distance to the neutral sheet. Furthermore, flux dropouts can be observed for any combination of the AE index value and the satellite's distance to the neutral sheet, which shows that the plasma sheet is dynamic even during weak magnetospheric disturbances. Substorms during which the satellites, though situated in the plasma sheet, did not detect any flux dropout, have also been examined, and it is found that the plasma sheet thickness can locally remain unaffected by substorm development for AE index values up to at least 1000 nT. The predictions of the two major plasma sheet thinning models, i.e., the near-tail X-type magnetic neutral line formation model and the MHD rarefaction wave propagation model, are compared to the experimental results, and it is concluded that neither model can account for all of the observations; plasma sheet dynamics are more complex. Phenomenologically, this study suggests that multiple pinching of the plasma sheet and/or large-amplitude three-dimensional plasma sheet oscillations are important in plasma sheet dynamics

  15. cDREM: inferring dynamic combinatorial gene regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wise, Aaron; Bar-Joseph, Ziv

    2015-04-01

    Genes are often combinatorially regulated by multiple transcription factors (TFs). Such combinatorial regulation plays an important role in development and facilitates the ability of cells to respond to different stresses. While a number of approaches have utilized sequence and ChIP-based datasets to study combinational regulation, these have often ignored the combinational logic and the dynamics associated with such regulation. Here we present cDREM, a new method for reconstructing dynamic models of combinatorial regulation. cDREM integrates time series gene expression data with (static) protein interaction data. The method is based on a hidden Markov model and utilizes the sparse group Lasso to identify small subsets of combinatorially active TFs, their time of activation, and the logical function they implement. We tested cDREM on yeast and human data sets. Using yeast we show that the predicted combinatorial sets agree with other high throughput genomic datasets and improve upon prior methods developed to infer combinatorial regulation. Applying cDREM to study human response to flu, we were able to identify several combinatorial TF sets, some of which were known to regulate immune response while others represent novel combinations of important TFs.

  16. Optimal Experimental Design of Borehole Locations for Bayesian Inference of Past Ice Sheet Surface Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.; Huan, X.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Borehole data are essential for calibrating ice sheet models. However, field expeditions for acquiring borehole data are often time-consuming, expensive, and dangerous. It is thus essential to plan the best sampling locations that maximize the value of data while minimizing costs and risks. We present an uncertainty quantification (UQ) workflow based on rigorous probability framework to achieve these objectives. First, we employ an optimal experimental design (OED) procedure to compute borehole locations that yield the highest expected information gain. We take into account practical considerations of location accessibility (e.g., proximity to research sites, terrain, and ice velocity may affect feasibility of drilling) and robustness (e.g., real-time constraints such as weather may force researchers to drill at sub-optimal locations near those originally planned), by incorporating a penalty reflecting accessibility as well as sensitivity to deviations from the optimal locations. Next, we extract vertical temperature profiles from these boreholes and formulate a Bayesian inverse problem to reconstruct past surface temperatures. Using a model of temperature advection/diffusion, the top boundary condition (corresponding to surface temperatures) is calibrated via efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The overall procedure can then be iterated to choose new optimal borehole locations for the next expeditions.Through this work, we demonstrate powerful UQ methods for designing experiments, calibrating models, making predictions, and assessing sensitivity--all performed under an uncertain environment. We develop a theoretical framework as well as practical software within an intuitive workflow, and illustrate their usefulness for combining data and models for environmental and climate research.

  17. The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK – Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Martin

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK. The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for bed topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and sub-shelf basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of sliding-dominated flow in stream-like features in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.

  18. The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, M. A.; Winkelmann, R.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

    2011-09-01

    We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK). The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for bed topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and sub-shelf basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of sliding-dominated flow in stream-like features in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.

  19. Behavior of protruding lateral plane graphene sheets in liquid dodecane: molecular dynamics simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Shenghui; Sun, Shuangqing, E-mail: sunshuangqing@upc.edu.cn; Li, Chunling [China University of Petroleum (East China), College of Science (China); Pittman, Charles U. [Mississippi State University, Department of Chemistry (United States); Lacy, Thomas E. [Mississippi State University, Department of Aerospace Engineering (United States); Hu, Songqing, E-mail: songqinghu@upc.edu.cn [China University of Petroleum (East China), College of Science (China); Gwaltney, Steven R. [Mississippi State University, Department of Chemistry (United States)

    2016-11-15

    Molecular dynamics simulations are used to investigate the behavior of two parallel graphene sheets fixed on one edge (lateral plane) in liquid dodecane. The interactions of these sheets and dodecane molecules are studied with different starting inter-sheet distances. The structure of the dodecane solvent is also analyzed. The results show that when the distance between the two graphene sheets is short (less than 6.8 Å), the sheets will expel the dodecane molecules between them and stack together. However, when the distance between two sheets is large (greater than 10.2 Å), the two sheets do not come together, and the dodecane molecules will form ordered layers in the interlayer spacing. The equilibrium distance between the graphene sheets can only take on specific discrete values (3.4, 7.8, and 12.1 Å), because only an integer number of dodecane layers forms between the two sheets. Once the graphene sheets are in contact, they remain in contact; the sheets do not separate to allow dodecane into the interlayer spacing.

  20. The last Scandinavian ice sheet in northwestern Russia: ice flow patterns and decay dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Demidov, L.; Houmark-Nielsen, Michael; Kjær, Kurt Henrik

    2006-01-01

    in Russia than previously outlined and the time of termination at 18-16 cal. kyr BP was almost 10 kyr delayed compared to the southwestern part of the ice sheet. We argue that the lithology of the ice sheets' substrate, and especially the location of former proglacial lake basins, influenced the dynamics......Advance of the Late Weichselian (Valdaian) Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) in northwestern Russia took place after a period of periglacial conditions. Till of the last SIS, Bobrovo till, overlies glacial deposits from the previous Barents and Kara Sea ice sheets and marine deposits of the Last...

  1. Modes of supraglacial lake drainage and dynamic ice sheet response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, S. B.; Behn, M. D.; Joughin, I. R.

    2011-12-01

    We investigate modes of supraglacial lake drainage using geophysical, ground, and remote sensing observations over the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet. Lakes exhibit a characteristic life cycle defined by a pre-drainage, drainage, and post-drainage phase. In the pre-drainage phase winter snow fills pre-existing cracks and stream channels, efficiently blocking past drainage conduits. As temperatures increase in the spring, surface melting commences, initially saturating the snow pack and subsequently forming a surface network of streams that fills the lake basins. Basins continue to fill until lake drainage commences, which for individual lakes occurs at different times depending on the previous winter snow accumulation and summer temperatures. Three styles of drainage behavior have been observed: (1) no drainage, (2) slow drainage over the side into an adjacent pre-existing crack, and (3) rapid drainage through a new crack formed beneath the lake basin. Moreover, from year-to-year individual lakes exhibit different drainage behaviors. Lakes that drain slowly often utilize the same outflow channel for multiple years, creating dramatic canyons in the ice. Ultimately, these surface channels are advected out of the lake basin and a new channel forms. In the post-drainage phase, melt water continues to access the bed typically through a small conduit (e.g. moulin) formed near a local topographic minimum along the main drainage crack, draining the lake catchment throughout the remainder of the melt season. This melt water input to the bed leads to continued basal lubrication and enhanced ice flow compared to background velocities. Lakes that do not completely drain freeze over to form a surface ice layer that persists into the following year. Our results show that supraglacial lakes show a spectrum of drainage behaviors and that these styles of drainage lead to varying rates and timing of surface meltwater delivery to the bed resulting in different dynamic ice

  2. Dynamic Behavior of Spicules Inferred from Perpendicular Velocity Components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharma, Rahul; Verth, Gary; Erdélyi, Robertus [Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Centre, University of Sheffield, Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom)

    2017-05-10

    Understanding the dynamic behavior of spicules, e.g., in terms of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) wave mode(s), is key to unveiling their role in energy and mass transfer from the photosphere to corona. The transverse, torsional, and field-aligned motions of spicules have previously been observed in imaging spectroscopy and analyzed separately for embedded wave-mode identification. Similarities in the Doppler signatures of spicular structures for both kink and torsional Alfvén wave modes have led to the misinterpretation of the dominant wave mode in these structures and is a subject of debate. Here, we aim to combine line- of-sight (LOS) and plane-of-sky (POS) velocity components using the high spatial/temporal resolution H α imaging-spectroscopy data from the CRisp Imaging SpectroPolarimeter based at the Swedish Solar Telescope to achieve better insight into the underlying nature of these motions as a whole. The resultant three-dimensional velocity vectors and the other derived quantities (e.g., magnetic pressure perturbations) are used to identify the MHD wave mode(s) responsible for the observed spicule motion. We find a number of independent examples where the bulk transverse motion of the spicule is dominant either in the POS or along the LOS. It is shown that the counterstreaming action of the displaced external plasma due to spicular bulk transverse motion has a similar Doppler profile to that of the m = 0 torsional Alfvén wave when this motion is predominantly perpendicular to the LOS. Furthermore, the inferred magnetic pressure perturbations support the kink wave interpretation of observed spicular bulk transverse motion rather than any purely incompressible MHD wave mode, e.g., the m = 0 torsional Alfvén wave.

  3. Electron precipitation morphology and plasma sheet dynamics: ground and magnetotail studies of the magnetospheric substorm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pytte, T.

    1976-12-01

    The main results of some recent studies of the magnetospheric substorm are summarised and discussed in view of the fundamental role of magnetospheric convection. The substorm growth phase is described in terms of a temporary imbalance between the rates of magnetic field-line merging on the dayside, and reconnection on the nightside, of the magnetosphere following a southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field. Some new understanding of the possible causal relationship between growth-phase and expansion-phase phenomena is provided through studies of multiple-onset substorms, during which substorm expansions are observed to occur at intervals of 10-15 min. Detailed observations have revealed new features of the radial and azimuthal dynamics of these substorms that are not consistent with recent models proposed by Akasofu and by Rostoker and his co-workers. It is shown that the behaviour of the near-earth plasma sheet early in a substorm cannot be inferred from measurements at larger distances (e.g., in the Vela satellite orbits), and that the triggering of a substorm expansion may well be directly related to pre-substorm thinning of the near-earth plasma sheet, even though the most significant thinning in the tailward region may occur at the onset, and therefore appears to be an effect rather than a cause of triggering. Initial results from studies of a new type of magnetospheric activity, characterised by strong auroral-zone bay activity but no other indications of substorm expansions, are shown to be consistent with current models of the growth and expansion phases of substorms and of substorm triggering. (JIW)

  4. Evidence for a dynamic East Antarctic ice sheet during the mid-Miocene climate transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Elizabeth L.; van de Flierdt, Tina; Williams, Trevor; Hemming, Sidney R.; Cook, Carys P.; Passchier, Sandra

    2017-11-01

    The East Antarctic ice sheet underwent a major expansion during the Mid-Miocene Climate Transition, around 14 Ma, lowering sea level by ∼60 m. However, direct or indirect evidence of where changes in the ice sheet occurred is limited. Here we present new insights on timing and locations of ice sheet change from two drill sites offshore East Antarctica. IODP Site U1356, Wilkes Land, and ODP Site 1165, Prydz Bay are located adjacent to two major ice drainage areas, the Wilkes Subglacial Basin and the Lambert Graben. Ice-rafted detritus (IRD), including dropstones, was deposited in concentrations far exceeding those known in the rest of the Miocene succession at both sites between 14.1 and 13.8 Ma, indicating that large amounts of IRD-bearing icebergs were calved from independent drainage basins during this relatively short interval. At Site U1356, the IRD was delivered in distinct pulses, suggesting that the overall ice advance was punctuated by short periods of ice retreat in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. Provenance analysis of the mid-Miocene IRD and fine-grained sediments provides additional insights on the movement of the ice margin and subglacial geology. At Site U1356, the dominant 40Ar/39Ar thermochronological age of the ice-rafted hornblende grains is 1400-1550 Ma, differing from the majority of recent IRD in the area, from which we infer an inland source area of this thermochronological age extending along the eastern part of the Adélie Craton, which forms the western side of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. Neodymium isotopic compositions from the terrigenous fine fraction at Site U1356 imply that the ice margin periodically expanded from high ground well into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin during periods of MMCT ice growth. At Site 1165, MMCT pebble-sized IRD are sourced from both the local Lambert Graben and the distant Aurora Subglacial Basin drainage area. Together, the occurrence and provenance of the IRD and glacially-eroded sediment at these two marine

  5. Mocapy++ - a toolkit for inference and learning in dynamic Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin; Hamelryck, Thomas Wim

    2010-01-01

    Background Mocapy++ is a toolkit for parameter learning and inference in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). It supports a wide range of DBN architectures and probability distributions, including distributions from directional statistics (the statistics of angles, directions and orientations...

  6. Nonlinear Dynamics of Non-uniform Current-Vortex Sheets in Magnetohydrodynamic Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuoka, C.; Nishihara, K.; Sano, T.

    2017-04-01

    A theoretical model is proposed to describe fully nonlinear dynamics of interfaces in two-dimensional MHD flows based on an idea of non-uniform current-vortex sheet. Application of vortex sheet model to MHD flows has a crucial difficulty because of non-conservative nature of magnetic tension. However, it is shown that when a magnetic field is initially parallel to an interface, the concept of vortex sheet can be extended to MHD flows (current-vortex sheet). Two-dimensional MHD flows are then described only by a one-dimensional Lagrange parameter on the sheet. It is also shown that bulk magnetic field and velocity can be calculated from their values on the sheet. The model is tested by MHD Richtmyer-Meshkov instability with sinusoidal vortex sheet strength. Two-dimensional ideal MHD simulations show that the nonlinear dynamics of a shocked interface with density stratification agrees fairly well with that for its corresponding potential flow. Numerical solutions of the model reproduce properly the results of the ideal MHD simulations, such as the roll-up of spike, exponential growth of magnetic field, and its saturation and oscillation. Nonlinear evolution of the interface is found to be determined by the Alfvén and Atwood numbers. Some of their dependence on the sheet dynamics and magnetic field amplification are discussed. It is shown by the model that the magnetic field amplification occurs locally associated with the nonlinear dynamics of the current-vortex sheet. We expect that our model can be applicable to a wide variety of MHD shear flows.

  7. Model-free inference of direct network interactions from nonlinear collective dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casadiego, Jose; Nitzan, Mor; Hallerberg, Sarah; Timme, Marc

    2017-12-19

    The topology of interactions in network dynamical systems fundamentally underlies their function. Accelerating technological progress creates massively available data about collective nonlinear dynamics in physical, biological, and technological systems. Detecting direct interaction patterns from those dynamics still constitutes a major open problem. In particular, current nonlinear dynamics approaches mostly require to know a priori a model of the (often high dimensional) system dynamics. Here we develop a model-independent framework for inferring direct interactions solely from recording the nonlinear collective dynamics generated. Introducing an explicit dependency matrix in combination with a block-orthogonal regression algorithm, the approach works reliably across many dynamical regimes, including transient dynamics toward steady states, periodic and non-periodic dynamics, and chaos. Together with its capabilities to reveal network (two point) as well as hypernetwork (e.g., three point) interactions, this framework may thus open up nonlinear dynamics options of inferring direct interaction patterns across systems where no model is known.

  8. A parameter-adaptive dynamic programming approach for inferring cophylogenies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merkle, Daniel; Middendorf, Martin; Wieseke, Nicolas

    2010-01-01

    Background: Coevolutionary systems like hosts and their parasites are commonly used model systems for evolutionary studies. Inferring the coevolutionary history based on given phylogenies of both groups is often done by employing a set of possible types of events that happened during coevolution....

  9. Wetting of Liquid Iron in Carbon Nanotubes and on Graphene Sheets: A Molecular Dynamics Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Yu-Feng; Yang Yang; Sun De-Yan

    2011-01-01

    Using molecular dynamics simulations, we study the wetting of liquid iron in a carbon nanotube and on a graphene sheet. It is found that the contact angle of a droplet in a carbon nanotube increases linearly with the increase of wall curvature but is independent of the length of the filled liquid. The contact angle for a droplet on a graphene sheet decreases with the increasing droplet size. The line tension of a droplet on a graphene sheet is also obtained. Detailed studies show that liquid iron near the carbon walls exhibits the ordering tendencies in both the normal and tangential directions. (condensed matter: structure, mechanical and thermal properties)

  10. EEG Based Inference of Spatio-Temporal Brain Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Sofie Therese

    Electroencephalography (EEG) provides a measure of brain activity and has improved our understanding of the brain immensely. However, there is still much to be learned and the full potential of EEG is yet to be realized. In this thesis we suggest to improve the information gain of EEG using three...... different approaches; 1) by recovery of the EEG sources, 2) by representing and inferring the propagation path of EEG sources, and 3) by combining EEG with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The common goal of the methods, and thus of this thesis, is to improve the spatial dimension of EEG...... recovery ability. The forward problem describes the propagation of neuronal activity in the brain to the EEG electrodes on the scalp. The geometry and conductivity of the head layers are normally required to model this path. We propose a framework for inferring forward models which is based on the EEG...

  11. Evidence Accumulation and Change Rate Inference in Dynamic Environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radillo, Adrian E; Veliz-Cuba, Alan; Josić, Krešimir; Kilpatrick, Zachary P

    2017-06-01

    In a constantly changing world, animals must account for environmental volatility when making decisions. To appropriately discount older, irrelevant information, they need to learn the rate at which the environment changes. We develop an ideal observer model capable of inferring the present state of the environment along with its rate of change. Key to this computation is an update of the posterior probability of all possible change point counts. This computation can be challenging, as the number of possibilities grows rapidly with time. However, we show how the computations can be simplified in the continuum limit by a moment closure approximation. The resulting low-dimensional system can be used to infer the environmental state and change rate with accuracy comparable to the ideal observer. The approximate computations can be performed by a neural network model via a rate-correlation-based plasticity rule. We thus show how optimal observers accumulate evidence in changing environments and map this computation to reduced models that perform inference using plausible neural mechanisms.

  12. Evaluation of artificial time series microarray data for dynamic gene regulatory network inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xenitidis, P; Seimenis, I; Kakolyris, S; Adamopoulos, A

    2017-08-07

    High-throughput technology like microarrays is widely used in the inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs). We focused on time series data since we are interested in the dynamics of GRNs and the identification of dynamic networks. We evaluated the amount of information that exists in artificial time series microarray data and the ability of an inference process to produce accurate models based on them. We used dynamic artificial gene regulatory networks in order to create artificial microarray data. Key features that characterize microarray data such as the time separation of directly triggered genes, the percentage of directly triggered genes and the triggering function type were altered in order to reveal the limits that are imposed by the nature of microarray data on the inference process. We examined the effect of various factors on the inference performance such as the network size, the presence of noise in microarray data, and the network sparseness. We used a system theory approach and examined the relationship between the pole placement of the inferred system and the inference performance. We examined the relationship between the inference performance in the time domain and the true system parameter identification. Simulation results indicated that time separation and the percentage of directly triggered genes are crucial factors. Also, network sparseness, the triggering function type and noise in input data affect the inference performance. When two factors were simultaneously varied, it was found that variation of one parameter significantly affects the dynamic response of the other. Crucial factors were also examined using a real GRN and acquired results confirmed simulation findings with artificial data. Different initial conditions were also used as an alternative triggering approach. Relevant results confirmed that the number of datasets constitutes the most significant parameter with regard to the inference performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier

  13. The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stap, Lennert B.; Van De Wal, Roderik S.W.; De Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J.

    2017-01-01

    Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition ( ~34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and

  14. Filament structure, organization, and dynamics in MreB sheets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popp, David; Narita, Akihiro; Maeda, Kayo; Fujisawa, Tetsuro; Ghoshdastider, Umesh; Iwasa, Mitsusada; Maéda, Yuichiro; Robinson, Robert C

    2010-05-21

    In vivo fluorescence microscopy studies of bacterial cells have shown that the bacterial shape-determining protein and actin homolog, MreB, forms cable-like structures that spiral around the periphery of the cell. The molecular structure of these cables has yet to be established. Here we show by electron microscopy that Thermatoga maritime MreB forms complex, several mum long multilayered sheets consisting of diagonally interwoven filaments in the presence of either ATP or GTP. This architecture, in agreement with recent rheological measurements on MreB cables, may have superior mechanical properties and could be an important feature for maintaining bacterial cell shape. MreB polymers within the sheets appear to be single-stranded helical filaments rather than the linear protofilaments found in the MreB crystal structure. Sheet assembly occurs over a wide range of pH, ionic strength, and temperature. Polymerization kinetics are consistent with a cooperative assembly mechanism requiring only two steps: monomer activation followed by elongation. Steady-state TIRF microscopy studies of MreB suggest filament treadmilling while high pressure small angle x-ray scattering measurements indicate that the stability of MreB polymers is similar to that of F-actin filaments. In the presence of ADP or GDP, long, thin cables formed in which MreB was arranged in parallel as linear protofilaments. This suggests that the bacterial cell may exploit various nucleotides to generate different filament structures within cables for specific MreB-based functions.

  15. A dynamic discretization method for reliability inference in Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Jiandao; Collette, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    The material and modeling parameters that drive structural reliability analysis for marine structures are subject to a significant uncertainty. This is especially true when time-dependent degradation mechanisms such as structural fatigue cracking are considered. Through inspection and monitoring, information such as crack location and size can be obtained to improve these parameters and the corresponding reliability estimates. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) are a powerful and flexible tool to model dynamic system behavior and update reliability and uncertainty analysis with life cycle data for problems such as fatigue cracking. However, a central challenge in using DBNs is the need to discretize certain types of continuous random variables to perform network inference while still accurately tracking low-probability failure events. Most existing discretization methods focus on getting the overall shape of the distribution correct, with less emphasis on the tail region. Therefore, a novel scheme is presented specifically to estimate the likelihood of low-probability failure events. The scheme is an iterative algorithm which dynamically partitions the discretization intervals at each iteration. Through applications to two stochastic crack-growth example problems, the algorithm is shown to be robust and accurate. Comparisons are presented between the proposed approach and existing methods for the discretization problem. - Highlights: • A dynamic discretization method is developed for low-probability events in DBNs. • The method is compared to existing approaches on two crack growth problems. • The method is shown to improve on existing methods for low-probability events

  16. A study of dynamic resistance during small scale resistance spot welding of thin Ni sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, W; Zhou, Y; Kerr, H W; Lawson, S

    2004-01-01

    The dynamic resistance has been investigated during small scale resistance spot welding (SSRSW) of Ni sheets. Electrical measurements have been correlated with scanning electron microscope images of joint development. The results show that the dynamic resistance curve can be divided into the following stages based on physical change in the workpieces: asperity heating, surface breakdown, asperity softening, partial surface melting, nugget growth and expulsion. These results are also compared and contrasted with dynamic resistance behaviour in large scale RSW

  17. The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stap, Lennert B.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; de Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J.

    2017-09-01

    Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (˜ 34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet-climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the separate effects of the ice-albedo and surface

  18. TURBULENT DYNAMICS IN SOLAR FLARE SHEET STRUCTURES MEASURED WITH LOCAL CORRELATION TRACKING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKenzie, D. E., E-mail: mckenzie@physics.montana.edu [Department of Physics, Montana State University, P.O. Box 173840, Bozeman, MT 59717-3840 (United States)

    2013-03-20

    High-resolution observations of the Sun's corona in extreme ultraviolet and soft X-rays have revealed a new world of complexity in the sheet-like structures connecting coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to the post-eruption flare arcades. This article presents initial findings from an exploration of dynamic flows in two flares observed with Hinode/XRT and SDO/AIA. The flows are observed in the hot ({approx}> 10 MK) plasma above the post-eruption arcades and measured with local correlation tracking. The observations demonstrate significant shears in velocity, giving the appearance of vortices and stagnations. Plasma diagnostics indicate that the plasma {beta} exceeds unity in at least one of the studied events, suggesting that the coronal magnetic fields may be significantly affected by the turbulent flows. Although reconnection models of eruptive flares tend to predict a macroscopic current sheet in the region between the CME and the flare arcade, it is not yet clear whether the observed sheet-like structures are identifiable as the current sheets or 'thermal halos' surrounding the current sheets. Regardless, the relationship between the turbulent motions and the embedded magnetic field is likely to be complicated, involving dynamic fluid processes that produce small length scales in the current sheet. Such processes may be crucial for triggering, accelerating, and/or prolonging reconnection in the corona.

  19. Inference in High-dimensional Dynamic Panel Data Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Tang, Haihan

    We establish oracle inequalities for a version of the Lasso in high-dimensional fixed effects dynamic panel data models. The inequalities are valid for the coefficients of the dynamic and exogenous regressors. Separate oracle inequalities are derived for the fixed effects. Next, we show how one can...

  20. Anisotropic mechanical properties of graphene sheets from molecular dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ni Zhonghua; Bu Hao; Zou Min; Yi Hong; Bi Kedong; Chen Yunfei

    2010-01-01

    Anisotropic mechanical properties are observed for a sheet of graphene along different load directions. The anisotropic mechanical properties are attributed to the hexagonal structure of the unit cells of the graphene. Under the same tensile loads, the edge bonds bear larger load in the longitudinal mode (LM) than in the transverse mode (TM), which causes fracture sooner in LM than in TM. The Young's modulus and the third order elastic modulus for the LM are slightly larger than that for the TM. Simulation also demonstrates that, for both LM and TM, the loading and unloading stress-strain response curves overlap as long as the graphene is unloaded before the fracture point. This confirms that graphene sustains complete elastic and reversible deformation in the elongation process.

  1. Early Disk dynamics Inferred from Isotope Systematics of Individual Chrondules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollard, Jean Francois André

    imply that they must be the product of one of the most energetic processes that operated in the early Solar System. Chondrules are the only samples available to investigate the early Solar System and the chemical and thermal evolution of the Solar protoplanetary disk. Although relative 26Al-26Mg dating....../or reservoirs over time. Finally, the fifth chapter explores the Solar System 26Al homogeneity paradigm by comparing of Al-Mg systematics in chondrules with their respective Pb-Pb ages. We report a consistent age offset between the two chronometers that we infer reflects a reduced abundance of 26Al relative...... to different reservoirs. Lastly, a reduced abundance of 26Al relative to 27Al in inner Solar System objects implies that asteroid accretion must have occurred very early in the Solar System’s formation, to allow melting and differentiation driven by 26Al decay. With respect to our Pb-Pb chondrule chronology...

  2. Parameter and Structure Inference for Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Robin D.; Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.; Millonas, Mark

    2006-01-01

    A great many systems can be modeled in the non-linear dynamical systems framework, as x = f(x) + xi(t), where f() is the potential function for the system, and xi is the excitation noise. Modeling the potential using a set of basis functions, we derive the posterior for the basis coefficients. A more challenging problem is to determine the set of basis functions that are required to model a particular system. We show that using the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to rank models, and the beam search technique, that we can accurately determine the structure of simple non-linear dynamical system models, and the structure of the coupling between non-linear dynamical systems where the individual systems are known. This last case has important ecological applications.

  3. Kernel methods and flexible inference for complex stochastic dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capobianco, Enrico

    2008-07-01

    Approximation theory suggests that series expansions and projections represent standard tools for random process applications from both numerical and statistical standpoints. Such instruments emphasize the role of both sparsity and smoothness for compression purposes, the decorrelation power achieved in the expansion coefficients space compared to the signal space, and the reproducing kernel property when some special conditions are met. We consider these three aspects central to the discussion in this paper, and attempt to analyze the characteristics of some known approximation instruments employed in a complex application domain such as financial market time series. Volatility models are often built ad hoc, parametrically and through very sophisticated methodologies. But they can hardly deal with stochastic processes with regard to non-Gaussianity, covariance non-stationarity or complex dependence without paying a big price in terms of either model mis-specification or computational efficiency. It is thus a good idea to look at other more flexible inference tools; hence the strategy of combining greedy approximation and space dimensionality reduction techniques, which are less dependent on distributional assumptions and more targeted to achieve computationally efficient performances. Advantages and limitations of their use will be evaluated by looking at algorithmic and model building strategies, and by reporting statistical diagnostics.

  4. Forest fragmentation and bird community dynamics: inference at regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thierry Boulinier; James D. Nichols; James E. Hines; John R. Sauer; Curtis H. Flather; Kenneth H. Pollock

    2001-01-01

    With increasing fragmentation of natural areas and a dramatic reduction of forest cover in several parts of the world, quantifying the impact of such changes on species richness and community dynamics has been a subject of much concern. Here, we tested whether in more fragmented landscapes there was a lower number of area-sensitive species and higher local extinction...

  5. Multi-decadal dynamic thinning on the northwest margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Niels Jákup; Kjær, Kurt H.; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas

    records with a 25 m grid resolution and vertical uncertainty of 4.6m. Comparative DEMs were derived from laser altimetry data recorded in 2005 and 2010. Ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) can be partitioned into surface mass balance (SMB) processes (runoff and precipitation) and ice dynamics...

  6. Inference of neuronal network spike dynamics and topology from calcium imaging data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry eLütcke

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Two-photon calcium imaging enables functional analysis of neuronal circuits by inferring action potential (AP occurrence ('spike trains' from cellular fluorescence signals. It remains unclear how experimental parameters such as signal-to-noise ratio (SNR and acquisition rate affect spike inference and whether additional information about network structure can be extracted. Here we present a simulation framework for quantitatively assessing how well spike dynamics and network topology can be inferred from noisy calcium imaging data. For simulated AP-evoked calcium transients in neocortical pyramidal cells, we analyzed the quality of spike inference as a function of SNR and data acquisition rate using a recently introduced peeling algorithm. Given experimentally attainable values of SNR and acquisition rate, neural spike trains could be reconstructed accurately and with up to millisecond precision. We then applied statistical neuronal network models to explore how remaining uncertainties in spike inference affect estimates of network connectivity and topological features of network organization. We define the experimental conditions suitable for inferring whether the network has a scale-free structure and determine how well hub neurons can be identified. Our findings provide a benchmark for future calcium imaging studies that aim to reliably infer neuronal network properties.

  7. Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2018-01-01

    In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

  8. Holocene glacial history of the west Greenland Ice Sheet inferred from cosmogenic exposure ages and threshold lakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Nicolaj Krog; Kjaer, K. H.; Colding, Sune Oluf

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we use a combination of 10Be exposure ages and threshold lakes to constrain the ice sheet history in Godthåbs- and Buksefjorden, west Greenland (63-64°N) during the Holocene. The 10Be cosmogenic exposure ages have been used to quantify both the ice retreat and thinning of the west...

  9. Model calibration for ice sheets and glaciers dynamics: a general theory of inverse problems in glaciology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giudici, Mauro; Baratelli, Fulvia; Vassena, Chiara; Cattaneo, Laura

    2014-05-01

    Numerical modelling of the dynamic evolution of ice sheets and glaciers requires the solution of discrete equations which are based on physical principles (e.g. conservation of mass, linear momentum and energy) and phenomenological constitutive laws (e.g. Glen's and Fourier's laws). These equations must be accompanied by information on the forcing term and by initial and boundary conditions (IBC) on ice velocity, stress and temperature; on the other hand the constitutive laws involves many physical parameters, which possibly depend on the ice thermodynamical state. The proper forecast of the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers (forward problem, FP) requires a precise knowledge of several quantities which appear in the IBCs, in the forcing terms and in the phenomenological laws and which cannot be easily measured at the study scale in the field. Therefore these quantities can be obtained through model calibration, i.e. by the solution of an inverse problem (IP). Roughly speaking, the IP aims at finding the optimal values of the model parameters that yield the best agreement of the model output with the field observations and data. The practical application of IPs is usually formulated as a generalised least squares approach, which can be cast in the framework of Bayesian inference. IPs are well developed in several areas of science and geophysics and several applications were proposed also in glaciology. The objective of this paper is to provide a further step towards a thorough and rigorous theoretical framework in cryospheric studies. Although the IP is often claimed to be ill-posed, this is rigorously true for continuous domain models, whereas for numerical models, which require the solution of algebraic equations, the properties of the IP must be analysed with more care. First of all, it is necessary to clarify the role of experimental and monitoring data to determine the calibration targets and the values of the parameters that can be considered to be fixed

  10. Forest fragmentation and bird community dynamics: inference at regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulinier, T.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Flather, C.H.; Pollock, K.H.

    2001-01-01

    With increasing fragmentation of natural areas and a dramatic reduction of forest cover in several parts of the world, quantifying the impact of such changes on species richness and community dynamics has been a subject of much concern. Here, we tested whether in more fragmented landscapes there was a lower number of area-sensitive species and higher local extinction and turnover rates, which could explain higher temporal variability in species richness. To investigate such potential landscape effects at a regional scale, we merged two independent, large-scale monitoring efforts: the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Land Use and Land Cover Classification data from the U.S. Geological Survey. We used methods that accounted for heterogeneity in the probability of detecting species to estimate species richness and temporal changes in the bird communities for BBS routes in three mid-Atlantic U.S. states. Forest breeding bird species were grouped prior to the analyses into area-sensitive and non-area-sensitive species according to previous studies. We tested predictions relating measures of forest structure at one point in time (1974) to species richness at that time and to parameters of forest bird community change over the following 22-yr-period (1975-1996). We used the mean size of forest patches to characterize landscape structure, as high correlations among landscape variables did not allow us to disentangle the relative roles of habitat fragmentation per se and habitat loss. As predicted, together with lower species richness for area-sensitive species on routes surrounded by landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size, we found higher mean year-to-year rates of local extinction. Moreover, the mean year-to-year rates of local turnover (proportion of locally new species) for area-sensitive species were also higher in landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size. These associations were not observed for the non-area-sensitive species group. These

  11. The Accuracy of Inference in Small Samples of Dynamic Panel Data Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bun, M.J.G.; Kiviet, J.F.

    2001-01-01

    Through Monte Carlo experiments the small sample behavior is examined of various inference techniques for dynamic panel data models when both the time-series and cross-section dimensions of the data set are small. The LSDV technique and corrected versions of it are compared with IV and GMM

  12. Inferring gene expression dynamics via functional regression analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leng Xiaoyan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Temporal gene expression profiles characterize the time-dynamics of expression of specific genes and are increasingly collected in current gene expression experiments. In the analysis of experiments where gene expression is obtained over the life cycle, it is of interest to relate temporal patterns of gene expression associated with different developmental stages to each other to study patterns of long-term developmental gene regulation. We use tools from functional data analysis to study dynamic changes by relating temporal gene expression profiles of different developmental stages to each other. Results We demonstrate that functional regression methodology can pinpoint relationships that exist between temporary gene expression profiles for different life cycle phases and incorporates dimension reduction as needed for these high-dimensional data. By applying these tools, gene expression profiles for pupa and adult phases are found to be strongly related to the profiles of the same genes obtained during the embryo phase. Moreover, one can distinguish between gene groups that exhibit relationships with positive and others with negative associations between later life and embryonal expression profiles. Specifically, we find a positive relationship in expression for muscle development related genes, and a negative relationship for strictly maternal genes for Drosophila, using temporal gene expression profiles. Conclusion Our findings point to specific reactivation patterns of gene expression during the Drosophila life cycle which differ in characteristic ways between various gene groups. Functional regression emerges as a useful tool for relating gene expression patterns from different developmental stages, and avoids the problems with large numbers of parameters and multiple testing that affect alternative approaches.

  13. Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Guo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

  14. Inferring the dynamics of diversification: a coalescent approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morlon, Hélène; Potts, Matthew D; Plotkin, Joshua B

    2010-09-28

    Recent analyses of the fossil record and molecular phylogenies suggest that there are fundamental limits to biodiversity, possibly arising from constraints in the availability of space, resources, or ecological niches. Under this hypothesis, speciation rates decay over time and biodiversity eventually saturates, with new species emerging only when others are driven to extinction. This view of macro-evolution contradicts an alternative hypothesis that biodiversity is unbounded, with species ever accumulating as they find new niches to occupy. These contrasting theories of biodiversity dynamics yield fundamentally different explanations for the disparity in species richness across taxa and regions. Here, we test whether speciation rates have decayed or remained constant over time, and whether biodiversity is saturated or still expanding. We first derive a general likelihood expression for internode distances in a phylogeny, based on the well-known coalescent process from population genetics. This expression accounts for either time-constant or time-variable rates, time-constant or time-variable diversity, and completely or incompletely sampled phylogenies. We then compare the performance of different diversification scenarios in explaining a set of 289 phylogenies representing amphibians, arthropods, birds, mammals, mollusks, and flowering plants. Our results indicate that speciation rates typically decay over time, but that diversity is still expanding at present. The evidence for expanding-diversity models suggests that an upper limit to biodiversity has not yet been reached, or that no such limit exists.

  15. A molecular dynamics study on the interaction between epoxy and functionalized graphene sheets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melro, Liliana Sofia S. F. P.; Pyrz, Ryszard; Jensen, Lars Rosgaard

    2016-01-01

    The interaction between graphene and epoxy resin was studied using molecular dynamics simulations. The interfacial shear strength and pull out force were calculated for functionalised graphene layers (carboxyl, carbonyl, and hydroxyl) and epoxy composites interfaces. The influence of functional...... groups, as well as their distribution and coverage density on the graphene sheets were also analysed through the determination of the Young's modulus. Functionalisation proved to be detrimental to the mechanical properties, nonetheless according to interfacial studies the interaction between graphene...

  16. Inference of Time-Evolving Coupled Dynamical Systems in the Presence of Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankovski, Tomislav; Duggento, Andrea; McClintock, Peter V. E.; Stefanovska, Aneta

    2012-07-01

    A new method is introduced for analysis of interactions between time-dependent coupled oscillators, based on the signals they generate. It distinguishes unsynchronized dynamics from noise-induced phase slips and enables the evolution of the coupling functions and other parameters to be followed. It is based on phase dynamics, with Bayesian inference of the time-evolving parameters achieved by shaping the prior densities to incorporate knowledge of previous samples. The method is tested numerically and applied to reveal and quantify the time-varying nature of cardiorespiratory interactions.

  17. Structural phase transition and failure of nanographite sheets under high pressure: a molecular dynamics study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Bin; Liang Yongcheng; Sun Huiyu

    2007-01-01

    Nanographite sheets under high compressive stresses at ambient temperature have been investigated through molecular dynamics simulations using the Tersoff-Brenner potential. Nanographite undergoes a soft to hard phase transition at a certain compressive stress, about 15 GPa. With increasing compressions, the bonding structures of nanographite are changed, interlayer sp 3 -bonds are formed, and nanographite transforms into a superhard carbon phase (SCP). Further compressions lead to the instabilities of the SCP. Although the detailed lattice structure of the SCP remains elusive, its compressive strength can approach 150 GPa, comparable to that of diamond. The maximum failure stresses of nanographite sheets are sensitive to the inter-and intra-layer interstices. Our results may explain paradoxical experimental results in the available literature

  18. A customized light sheet microscope to measure spatio-temporal protein dynamics in small model organisms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rieckher

    Full Text Available We describe a customizable and cost-effective light sheet microscopy (LSM platform for rapid three-dimensional imaging of protein dynamics in small model organisms. The system is designed for high acquisition speeds and enables extended time-lapse in vivo experiments when using fluorescently labeled specimens. We demonstrate the capability of the setup to monitor gene expression and protein localization during ageing and upon starvation stress in longitudinal studies in individual or small groups of adult Caenorhabditis elegans nematodes. The system is equipped to readily perform fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP, which allows monitoring protein recovery and distribution under low photobleaching conditions. Our imaging platform is designed to easily switch between light sheet microscopy and optical projection tomography (OPT modalities. The setup permits monitoring of spatio-temporal expression and localization of ageing biomarkers of subcellular size and can be conveniently adapted to image a wide range of small model organisms and tissue samples.

  19. Reconstruction of the Greenland ice sheet dynamics in a fully coupled Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Huybrechts, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Earth system models (ESMs) are undoubtedly effective tools for studying climate dynamics. Incorporation of evolving ice sheets to ESMs is a challenging task because response times of the climate system and of ice sheets differ by several orders of magnitude. Besides, AO GCMs operate on spatial and temporal resolutions substantially differing from those of ice sheet models (ICMs). Therefore elaboration of an effective coupling methodology of an AO GCM and an ICM is the key problem of an ESM construction and utilization. Several downscaling strategies of varying complexity exist now of data exchange between modeled climate system and ice sheets. Application of a particular strategy depends on the research objectives. In our view, the optimum approach for model studying of significant environmental changes (e.g. glacial/interglacial transitions) when ice sheets undergo substantial evolution of geometry and volume would be an asynchronous coupling. The latter allows simulation in the interactive way of growth and decay of ice sheets in the changing climatic conditions. In the focus of the presentation, is the overview of coupling aspects of an AO GCM INMCM32 elaborated in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia) to the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM, Vrije Uninersiteit Brussel, Belgium). To provide interactive coupling of INMCM32 (spatial resolution 5°×4°, 21 vertical layers and temporal resolution 6 min. in the atmospheric block) and GrISM (spatial resolution 20×20 km, 51 vertical layers and 1 yr temporal resolution), we employ a special energy- and water balance model (EWBM-G), which serves as a buffer providing effective data exchange between INMCM32 and GrISM. EWBM-G operates in a rectangle domain including Greenland. Transfer of daily meanings of simulated climatic variables (air surface temperature and specific humidity) is provided on the lateral boundarias of the domain and inside the domain (sea level air pressure, wind speed and total

  20. Overview of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance and Dynamics from ICESat Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwally, H. Jay

    2010-01-01

    The primary purpose of the ICESat mission was to determine the present-day mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, identify changes that may be occurring in the surface-mass flux and ice dynamics, and estimate their contributions to global sea-level rise. Although ICESat's three lasers were planned to make continuous measurements for 3 to 5 years, the mission was re-planned to operate in 33-day campaigns 2 to 3 times each year following failure of the first laser after 36 days. Seventeen campaigns were conducted with the last one in the Fall of 2009. Mass balance maps derived from measured ice-sheet elevation changes show that the mass loss from Greenland has increased significantly to about 170 Gt/yr for 2003 to 2007 from a state of near balance in the 1990's. Increased losses (189 Gt/yr) from melting and dynamic thinning are over seven times larger'than increased gains (25 gt/yr) from precipitation. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula are losing mass at an increasing rate, but other parts of West Antarctica and the East Antarctic ice sheet are gaining mass at an increasing rate. Increased losses of 35 Gt/yr in Pine Island, Thwaites-Smith, and Marie-Bryd.Coast are more than balanced by gains in base of Peninsula and ice stream C, D, & E systems. From the 1992-2002 to 2003-2007 period, the overall mass balance for Antarctica changed from a loss of about 60 Gt/yr to near balance or slightly positive.

  1. Shape Distributions of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems for Video-Based Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkataraman, Vinay; Turaga, Pavan

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents a shape-theoretic framework for dynamical analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems which appear frequently in several video-based inference tasks. Traditional approaches to dynamical modeling have included linear and nonlinear methods with their respective drawbacks. A novel approach we propose is the use of descriptors of the shape of the dynamical attractor as a feature representation of nature of dynamics. The proposed framework has two main advantages over traditional approaches: a) representation of the dynamical system is derived directly from the observational data, without any inherent assumptions, and b) the proposed features show stability under different time-series lengths where traditional dynamical invariants fail. We illustrate our idea using nonlinear dynamical models such as Lorenz and Rossler systems, where our feature representations (shape distribution) support our hypothesis that the local shape of the reconstructed phase space can be used as a discriminative feature. Our experimental analyses on these models also indicate that the proposed framework show stability for different time-series lengths, which is useful when the available number of samples are small/variable. The specific applications of interest in this paper are: 1) activity recognition using motion capture and RGBD sensors, 2) activity quality assessment for applications in stroke rehabilitation, and 3) dynamical scene classification. We provide experimental validation through action and gesture recognition experiments on motion capture and Kinect datasets. In all these scenarios, we show experimental evidence of the favorable properties of the proposed representation.

  2. A nonlocal strain gradient model for dynamic deformation of orthotropic viscoelastic graphene sheets under time harmonic thermal load

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radwan, Ahmed F.; Sobhy, Mohammed

    2018-06-01

    This work presents a nonlocal strain gradient theory for the dynamic deformation response of a single-layered graphene sheet (SLGS) on a viscoelastic foundation and subjected to a time harmonic thermal load for various boundary conditions. Material of graphene sheets is presumed to be orthotropic and viscoelastic. The viscoelastic foundation is modeled as Kelvin-Voigt's pattern. Based on the two-unknown plate theory, the motion equations are obtained from the dynamic version of the virtual work principle. The nonlocal strain gradient theory is established from Eringen nonlocal and strain gradient theories, therefore, it contains two material scale parameters, which are nonlocal parameter and gradient coefficient. These scale parameters have two different effects on the graphene sheets. The obtained deflection is compared with that predicted in the literature. Additional numerical examples are introduced to illustrate the influences of the two length scale coefficients and other parameters on the dynamic deformation of the viscoelastic graphene sheets.

  3. Ice dynamic response to two modes of surface lake drainage on the Greenland ice sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tedesco, Marco; Alexander, Patrick; Willis, Ian C; Banwell, Alison F; Arnold, Neil S; Hoffman, Matthew J

    2013-01-01

    Supraglacial lake drainage on the Greenland ice sheet opens surface-to-bed connections, reduces basal friction, and temporarily increases ice flow velocities by up to an order of magnitude. Existing field-based observations of lake drainages and their impact on ice dynamics are limited, and focus on one specific draining mechanism. Here, we report and analyse global positioning system measurements of ice velocity and elevation made at five locations surrounding two lakes that drained by different mechanisms and produced different dynamic responses. For the lake that drained slowly (>24 h) by overtopping its basin, delivering water via a channel to a pre-existing moulin, speedup and uplift were less than half those associated with a lake that drained rapidly (∼2 h) through hydrofracturing and the creation of new moulins in the lake bottom. Our results suggest that the mode and associated rate of lake drainage govern the impact on ice dynamics. (letter)

  4. Development of dynamic explicit crystallographic homogenization finite element analysis code to assess sheet metal formability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Yasunori; Tam, Nguyen Ngoc; Ohata, Tomiso; Morita, Kiminori; Nakamachi, Eiji

    2004-01-01

    The crystallographic texture evolution induced by plastic deformation in the sheet metal forming process has a great influence on its formability. In the present study, a dynamic explicit finite element (FE) analysis code is newly developed by introducing a crystallographic homogenization method to estimate the polycrystalline sheet metal formability, such as the extreme thinning and 'earing'. This code can predict the plastic deformation induced texture evolution at the micro scale and the plastic anisotropy at the macro scale, simultaneously. This multi-scale analysis can couple the microscopic crystal plasticity inhomogeneous deformation with the macroscopic continuum deformation. In this homogenization process, the stress at the macro scale is defined by the volume average of those of the corresponding microscopic crystal aggregations in satisfying the equation of motion and compatibility condition in the micro scale 'unit cell', where the periodicity of deformation is satisfied. This homogenization algorithm is implemented in the conventional dynamic explicit finite element code by employing the updated Lagrangian formulation and the rate type elastic/viscoplastic constitutive equation.At first, it has been confirmed through a texture evolution analyses in cases of typical deformation modes that Taylor's 'constant strain homogenization algorithm' yields extreme concentration toward the preferred crystal orientations compared with our homogenization one. Second, we study the plastic anisotropy effects on 'earing' in the hemispherical cup deep drawing process of pure ferrite phase sheet metal. By the comparison of analytical results with those of Taylor's assumption, conclusions are drawn that the present newly developed dynamic explicit crystallographic homogenization FEM shows more reasonable prediction of plastic deformation induced texture evolution and plastic anisotropy at the macro scale

  5. A dynamically tunable plasmonic multi-functional device based on graphene nano-sheet pair arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Meng, Zhao; Liang, Ruisheng; Chen, Shijie; Ding, Li; Wang, Faqiang; Liu, Hongzhan; Meng, Hongyun; Wei, Zhongchao

    2018-05-01

    Dynamically tunable plasmonic multi-functional is particularly desirable for various nanotechnological applications. In this paper, graphene nano-sheet pair arrays separated by a substrate, which can act as a dynamically tunable plasmonic band stop filter with transmission at resonance wavelength lower than 1%, a high sensitivity refractive index sensor with sensitivity up to 4879 nm/RIU, figure of merit of 40.66 and a two circuit optical switch with the modulation depth up to 0.998, are proposed and numerically investigated. These excellent optical performances are calculated by using FDTD numerical modeling and theoretical deduction. Simulation results show that a slight variation of chemical potential of the graphene nano-sheet can achieve significant resonance wavelength shifts. In additional, the resonance wavelength and transmission of this plasmonic device can be tuned easily by two voltages owing to the simple patterned graphene. These studies may have great potential in fabrication of multi-functional and dynamically tunable optoelectronic integrated devices.

  6. Impacts of marine instability across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet on Southern Ocean dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Phipps

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Recent observations and modelling studies have demonstrated the potential for rapid and substantial retreat of large sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS. This has major implications for ocean circulation and global sea level. Here we examine the effects of increasing meltwater from the Wilkes Basin, one of the major marine-based sectors of the EAIS, on Southern Ocean dynamics. Climate model simulations reveal that the meltwater flux rapidly stratifies surface waters, leading to a dramatic decrease in the rate of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW formation. The surface ocean cools but, critically, the Southern Ocean warms by more than 1 °C at depth. This warming is accompanied by a Southern Ocean-wide “domino effect”, whereby the warming signal propagates westward with depth. Our results suggest that melting of one sector of the EAIS could result in accelerated warming across other sectors, including the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Thus, localised melting of the EAIS could potentially destabilise the wider Antarctic Ice Sheet.

  7. Inferring dynamic gene regulatory networks in cardiac differentiation through the integration of multi-dimensional data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Wuming; Koyano-Nakagawa, Naoko; Li, Tongbin; Garry, Daniel J

    2015-03-07

    Decoding the temporal control of gene expression patterns is key to the understanding of the complex mechanisms that govern developmental decisions during heart development. High-throughput methods have been employed to systematically study the dynamic and coordinated nature of cardiac differentiation at the global level with multiple dimensions. Therefore, there is a pressing need to develop a systems approach to integrate these data from individual studies and infer the dynamic regulatory networks in an unbiased fashion. We developed a two-step strategy to integrate data from (1) temporal RNA-seq, (2) temporal histone modification ChIP-seq, (3) transcription factor (TF) ChIP-seq and (4) gene perturbation experiments to reconstruct the dynamic network during heart development. First, we trained a logistic regression model to predict the probability (LR score) of any base being bound by 543 TFs with known positional weight matrices. Second, four dimensions of data were combined using a time-varying dynamic Bayesian network model to infer the dynamic networks at four developmental stages in the mouse [mouse embryonic stem cells (ESCs), mesoderm (MES), cardiac progenitors (CP) and cardiomyocytes (CM)]. Our method not only infers the time-varying networks between different stages of heart development, but it also identifies the TF binding sites associated with promoter or enhancers of downstream genes. The LR scores of experimentally verified ESCs and heart enhancers were significantly higher than random regions (p network inference model identified a region with an elevated LR score approximately -9400 bp upstream of the transcriptional start site of Nkx2-5, which overlapped with a previously reported enhancer region (-9435 to -8922 bp). TFs such as Tead1, Gata4, Msx2, and Tgif1 were predicted to bind to this region and participate in the regulation of Nkx2-5 gene expression. Our model also predicted the key regulatory networks for the ESC-MES, MES-CP and CP

  8. Plasma sheet fast flows and auroral dynamics during substorm: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. L. Borodkova

    2002-03-01

    Full Text Available Interball-1 observations of a substorm development in the mid-tail on 16 December 1998 are compared with the auroral dynamics obtained from the Polar UV imager. Using these data, the relationship between plasma flow directions in the tail and the location of the auroral activation is examined. Main attention is given to tailward and earth-ward plasma flows, interpreted as signatures of a Near Earth Neutral Line (NENL. It is unambiguously shown that in the mid-plasma sheet the flows were directed tailward when the auroral bulge developed equatorward of the spacecraft ionospheric footprint. On the contrary, when active auroras moved poleward of the Interball-1 projection, earthward fast flow bursts were observed. This confirms the concept that the NENL (or flow reversal region is the source of auroras forming the poleward edge of the auroral bulge. The observed earthward flow bursts have all typical signatures of Bursty Bulk Flows (BBFs, described by Angelopolous et al. (1992. These BBFs are related to substorm activations starting at the poleward edge of the expanded auroral bulge. We interpret the BBFs as a result of reconnection pulses occurring tail-ward of Interball-1. In addition, some non-typically observed phenomena were detected in the plasma sheet during this substorm: (i tailward/earthward flows were superimposed on a very strong duskward flow, and (ii wavy structures of both magnetic field and plasma density were registered. The latter observation is probably linked to the filamentary structure of the current sheet.Key words. Magnetospheric physics (auroral phenomena; plasma sheet; storms and substorms

  9. Detecting dynamic causal inference in nonlinear two-phase fracture flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faybishenko, Boris

    2017-08-01

    Identifying dynamic causal inference involved in flow and transport processes in complex fractured-porous media is generally a challenging task, because nonlinear and chaotic variables may be positively coupled or correlated for some periods of time, but can then become spontaneously decoupled or non-correlated. In his 2002 paper (Faybishenko, 2002), the author performed a nonlinear dynamical and chaotic analysis of time-series data obtained from the fracture flow experiment conducted by Persoff and Pruess (1995), and, based on the visual examination of time series data, hypothesized that the observed pressure oscillations at both inlet and outlet edges of the fracture result from a superposition of both forward and return waves of pressure propagation through the fracture. In the current paper, the author explores an application of a combination of methods for detecting nonlinear chaotic dynamics behavior along with the multivariate Granger Causality (G-causality) time series test. Based on the G-causality test, the author infers that his hypothesis is correct, and presents a causation loop diagram of the spatial-temporal distribution of gas, liquid, and capillary pressures measured at the inlet and outlet of the fracture. The causal modeling approach can be used for the analysis of other hydrological processes, for example, infiltration and pumping tests in heterogeneous subsurface media, and climatic processes, for example, to find correlations between various meteorological parameters, such as temperature, solar radiation, barometric pressure, etc.

  10. Heinrich event 1: an example of dynamical ice-sheet reaction to oceanic changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Álvarez-Solas

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Heinrich events, identified as enhanced ice-rafted detritus (IRD in North Atlantic deep sea sediments (Heinrich, 1988; Hemming, 2004 have classically been attributed to Laurentide ice-sheet (LIS instabilities (MacAyeal, 1993; Calov et al., 2002; Hulbe et al., 2004 and assumed to lead to important disruptions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC and North Atlantic deep water (NADW formation. However, recent paleoclimate data have revealed that most of these events probably occurred after the AMOC had already slowed down or/and NADW largely collapsed, within about a thousand years (Hall et al., 2006; Hemming, 2004; Jonkers et al., 2010; Roche et al., 2004, implying that the initial AMOC reduction could not have been caused by the Heinrich events themselves.

    Here we propose an alternative driving mechanism, specifically for Heinrich event 1 (H1; 18 to 15 ka BP, by which North Atlantic ocean circulation changes are found to have strong impacts on LIS dynamics. By combining simulations with a coupled climate model and a three-dimensional ice sheet model, our study illustrates how reduced NADW and AMOC weakening lead to a subsurface warming in the Nordic and Labrador Seas resulting in rapid melting of the Hudson Strait and Labrador ice shelves. Lack of buttressing by the ice shelves implies a substantial ice-stream acceleration, enhanced ice-discharge and sea level rise, with peak values 500–1500 yr after the initial AMOC reduction. Our scenario modifies the previous paradigm of H1 by solving the paradox of its occurrence during a cold surface period, and highlights the importance of taking into account the effects of oceanic circulation on ice-sheets dynamics in order to elucidate the triggering mechanism of Heinrich events.

  11. Opinion Dynamics on Networks with Inference of Unobservable States of Others

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujie, Ryo

    In most opinion formation models which have been proposed, the agents decide their states (i.e. opinions) by referring to the states of others. However, the referred states of others are not necessarily observable and may be inferred. To investigate the effect of an inference of the states of others on opinion dynamics, I propose an extended voter model on networks where observable and referable node sets are different. These sets for a node defined as the nearest to the mo-th neighbors for observable nodes and the nearest to the mr-th neighbors for referable nodes. The state of referable but unobservable node which is the m-th neighbor (mo pagerank'' is conserved. This conserved quantity coincides with the fixation probability. On the other hand, in the case of mo =mr = 1 , the model comes down to the standard voter model on networks and the conserved quantity is a degree-weighted superposition of the states. Thus, the introduction of the inference changes the important opinion spreaders from the high-degree nodes to the high-betweenness pagerank nodes. This work is supported by the Collaboration Research Program of IDEAS, Chubu University IDEAS2016233.

  12. Inference of RNA polymerase II transcription dynamics from chromatin immunoprecipitation time course data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciira wa Maina

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Gene transcription mediated by RNA polymerase II (pol-II is a key step in gene expression. The dynamics of pol-II moving along the transcribed region influence the rate and timing of gene expression. In this work, we present a probabilistic model of transcription dynamics which is fitted to pol-II occupancy time course data measured using ChIP-Seq. The model can be used to estimate transcription speed and to infer the temporal pol-II activity profile at the gene promoter. Model parameters are estimated using either maximum likelihood estimation or via Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The Bayesian approach provides confidence intervals for parameter estimates and allows the use of priors that capture domain knowledge, e.g. the expected range of transcription speeds, based on previous experiments. The model describes the movement of pol-II down the gene body and can be used to identify the time of induction for transcriptionally engaged genes. By clustering the inferred promoter activity time profiles, we are able to determine which genes respond quickly to stimuli and group genes that share activity profiles and may therefore be co-regulated. We apply our methodology to biological data obtained using ChIP-seq to measure pol-II occupancy genome-wide when MCF-7 human breast cancer cells are treated with estradiol (E2. The transcription speeds we obtain agree with those obtained previously for smaller numbers of genes with the advantage that our approach can be applied genome-wide. We validate the biological significance of the pol-II promoter activity clusters by investigating cluster-specific transcription factor binding patterns and determining canonical pathway enrichment. We find that rapidly induced genes are enriched for both estrogen receptor alpha (ERα and FOXA1 binding in their proximal promoter regions.

  13. Complexity characterization in a probabilistic approach to dynamical systems through information geometry and inductive inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, S A; Kim, D-H; Cafaro, C; Giffin, A

    2012-01-01

    Information geometric techniques and inductive inference methods hold great promise for solving computational problems of interest in classical and quantum physics, especially with regard to complexity characterization of dynamical systems in terms of their probabilistic description on curved statistical manifolds. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of describing the macroscopic behavior of complex systems in terms of the underlying statistical structure of their microscopic degrees of freedom by the use of statistical inductive inference and information geometry. We review the maximum relative entropy formalism and the theoretical structure of the information geometrodynamical approach to chaos on statistical manifolds M S . Special focus is devoted to a description of the roles played by the sectional curvature K M S , the Jacobi field intensity J M S and the information geometrodynamical entropy S M S . These quantities serve as powerful information-geometric complexity measures of information-constrained dynamics associated with arbitrary chaotic and regular systems defined on M S . Finally, the application of such information-geometric techniques to several theoretical models is presented.

  14. Data-driven Inference and Investigation of Thermosphere Dynamics and Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, P. M.; Linares, R.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents a methodology for data-driven inference and investigation of thermosphere dynamics and variations. The approach uses data-driven modal analysis to extract the most energetic modes of variations for neutral thermospheric species using proper orthogonal decomposition, where the time-independent modes or basis represent the dynamics and the time-depedent coefficients or amplitudes represent the model parameters. The data-driven modal analysis approach combined with sparse, discrete observations is used to infer amplitues for the dynamic modes and to calibrate the energy content of the system. In this work, two different data-types, namely the number density measurements from TIMED/GUVI and the mass density measurements from CHAMP/GRACE are simultaneously ingested for an accurate and self-consistent specification of the thermosphere. The assimilation process is achieved with a non-linear least squares solver and allows estimation/tuning of the model parameters or amplitudes rather than the driver. In this work, we use the Naval Research Lab's MSIS model to derive the most energetic modes for six different species, He, O, N2, O2, H, and N. We examine the dominant drivers of variations for helium in MSIS and observe that seasonal latitudinal variation accounts for about 80% of the dynamic energy with a strong preference of helium for the winter hemisphere. We also observe enhanced helium presence near the poles at GRACE altitudes during periods of low solar activity (Feb 2007) as previously deduced. We will also examine the storm-time response of helium derived from observations. The results are expected to be useful in tuning/calibration of the physics-based models.

  15. Analysis of Dynamic Coupling Characteristics of the Slope Reinforced by Sheet Pile Wall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. L. Qu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Large deformation of slope caused by earthquake can lead to the loss of stability of slope and its retaining structures. At present, there have been some research achievements about the slope reinforcement of stabilizing piles. However, due to the complexity of the structural system, the coupling relationship between soil and pile is still not well understood. Hence it is of great necessity to study its dynamic characteristics further. In view of this, a numerical model was established by FLAC3D in this paper, and the deformation and stress nephogram of sheet pile wall in peak ground motion acceleration (PGA at 0.1 g, 0.2 g, and 0.4 g were obtained. Through the analysis, some conclusions were obtained. Firstly, based on the nephogram of motion characteristics and the positions of the slip surface and the retaining wall, the reinforced slope can be divided into 6 sections approximatively, namely, the sliding body parts of A, B, C, D, and E and the bedrock part F. Secondly, the deformation and stress distributions of slope reinforced by sheet pile wall were carefully studied. Based on the results of deformation calculation from time history analysis, the interaction force between structure and soil can be estimated by the difference of peak horizontal displacements, and the structure-soil coupling law under earthquake can be studied by this approach.

  16. Free oscillations in a climate model with ice-sheet dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallen, E.; Crafoord, C.; Ghil, M.

    1979-01-01

    A study of stable periodic solutions to a simple nonlinear model of the ocean-atmosphere-ice system is presented. The model has two dependent variables: ocean-atmosphere temperature and latitudinal extent of the ice cover. No explicit dependence on latitude is considered in the model. Hence all variables depend only on time and the model consists of a coupled set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The globally averaged ocean-atmosphere temperature in the model is governed by the radiation balance. The reflectivity to incoming solar radiation, i.e., the planetary albedo, includes separate contributions from sea ice and from continental ice sheets. The major physical mechanisms active in the model are (1) albedo-temperature feedback, (2) continental ice-sheet dynamics and (3) precipitation-rate variations. The model has three-equilibrium solutions, two of which are linearly unstable, while one is linearly stable. For some choices of parameters, the stability picture changes and sustained, finite-amplitude oscillations obtain around the previously stable equilibrium solution. The physical interpretation of these oscillations points to the possibility of internal mechanisms playing a role in glaciation cycles.

  17. Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, William A.; Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna

    2008-06-01

    Grandmont [J.M. Grandmont, On endogenous competitive business cycles, Econometrica 53 (1985) 995-1045] found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic models is stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with many forms of multiperiodic dynamics in between. The econometric implications of Grandmont’s findings are particularly important, if bifurcation boundaries cross the confidence regions surrounding parameter estimates in policy-relevant models. Stratification of a confidence region into bifurcated subsets seriously damages robustness of dynamical inferences. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New-Keynesian models. As a result, in this paper we explore bifurcation within the class of New-Keynesian models. We develop the econometric theory needed to locate bifurcation boundaries in log-linearized New-Keynesian models with Taylor policy rules or inflation-targeting policy rules. Central results needed in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the cases that we consider.

  18. Geothermal Heat Flux: Linking Deep Earth's Interior and the Dynamics of Large-Scale Ice Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogozhina, Irina; Vaughan, Alan

    2014-05-01

    Greenland results from the remanent effects of an Early Cenozoic passage of the lithosphere above the Iceland mantle plume that is implicated in strong thermochemical erosion of the lithosphere and significant long-term effects on the present-day subglacial heat flow pattern and thermodynamic state of the Greenland ice sheet. These observations and our modeling results (Petrunin et al., 2013) show that the present-day thermal state of Greenland and Antarctic lithosphere cannot be well understood without taking into account a long-term tectonic history of these regions. The goal of the IceGeoHeat project is to combine existing independent geophysical data and innovative modeling approaches to comprehensively study the evolution and present state of the lithosphere in Greenland and Antarctica, and assess the role of geothermal heat flux in shaping the present-day ice sheet dynamics. This requires multiple collaborations involving experts across a range of disciplines. The project builds on the IceGeoHeat initiative formed in April 2012 and now including researchers from ten countries in the main core (MC) with expertise in numerical modeling and data assessment in geodynamics, geology, geothermics, cryosphere and (paleo-)climate. Petrunin, A., Rogozhina, I., Vaughan, A. P. M., Kukkonen, I. T., Kaban, M., Koulakov, I., Thomas, M. (2013): Heat flux variations beneath central Greenland's ice due to anomalously thin lithosphere. - Nature Geoscience, 6, 746-750.

  19. Inferring Characteristics of Sensorimotor Behavior by Quantifying Dynamics of Animal Locomotion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, KaWai

    Locomotion is one of the most well-studied topics in animal behavioral studies. Many fundamental and clinical research make use of the locomotion of an animal model to explore various aspects in sensorimotor behavior. In the past, most of these studies focused on population average of a specific trait due to limitation of data collection and processing power. With recent advance in computer vision and statistical modeling techniques, it is now possible to track and analyze large amounts of behavioral data. In this thesis, I present two projects that aim to infer the characteristics of sensorimotor behavior by quantifying the dynamics of locomotion of nematode Caenorhabditis elegans and fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, shedding light on statistical dependence between sensing and behavior. In the first project, I investigate the possibility of inferring noxious sensory information from the behavior of Caenorhabditis elegans. I develop a statistical model to infer the heat stimulus level perceived by individual animals from their stereotyped escape responses after stimulation by an IR laser. The model allows quantification of analgesic-like effects of chemical agents or genetic mutations in the worm. At the same time, the method is able to differentiate perturbations of locomotion behavior that are beyond affecting the sensory system. With this model I propose experimental designs that allows statistically significant identification of analgesic-like effects. In the second project, I investigate the relationship of energy budget and stability of locomotion in determining the walking speed distribution of Drosophila melanogaster during aging. The locomotion stability at different age groups is estimated from video recordings using Floquet theory. I calculate the power consumption of different locomotion speed using a biomechanics model. In conclusion, the power consumption, not stability, predicts the locomotion speed distribution at different ages.

  20. Interpretation of quasi-static and dynamic tensile behavior by digital image correlation technique in TWinning Induced Plasticity (TWIP) and low-carbon steel sheets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Minju; Park, Jaeyeong; Sohn, Seok Su; Kim, Hyoung Seop [Center for Advanced Aerospace Materials, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang 790-784 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Nack J. [Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang 790-784 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sunghak, E-mail: shlee@postech.ac.kr [Center for Advanced Aerospace Materials, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang 790-784 (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-05-02

    In this study, dynamic tensile tests were conducted on TWinning Induced Plasticity (TWIP) and low-carbon (LC) steel sheets at a strain rate of 1500–2000/s by using a split Hopkinson tensile bar, and deformation mechanisms related with improvement of dynamic tensile properties were investigated by a digital image correlation (DIC) technique. The dynamic tensile strength was higher than the quasi-static tensile strength in both TWIP and LC sheets, while the dynamic elongation was same to the quasi-static elongation in the TWIP sheet and was much lower than the quasi-static elongation in the LC sheet. According to the DIC results of the dynamically tensioned TWIP sheet, the homogeneous deformation occurred before the necking at the strain of 47.4%. This indicated that the dynamic deformation processes were almost similar to the quasi-static ones as the TWIP sheet was homogeneously deformed in the initial and intermediate deformation stages. This could be explained by deformation mechanisms including twinning, in consideration of favorable effect of increased twinning on tensile properties under the dynamic loading. On the other hand, the dynamically tensioned LC sheet was rapidly deformed and fractured as the necking was intensified in a narrow strain-concentrated region. The present DIC technique is an outstanding method for detailed dynamic deformation analyses, and provides an important idea for practical safety analyses of automotive steel sheets.

  1. Ecological modeling from time-series inference: insight into dynamics and stability of intestinal microbiota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Richard R; Bucci, Vanni; Toussaint, Nora C; Buffie, Charlie G; Rätsch, Gunnar; Pamer, Eric G; Sander, Chris; Xavier, João B

    2013-01-01

    The intestinal microbiota is a microbial ecosystem of crucial importance to human health. Understanding how the microbiota confers resistance against enteric pathogens and how antibiotics disrupt that resistance is key to the prevention and cure of intestinal infections. We present a novel method to infer microbial community ecology directly from time-resolved metagenomics. This method extends generalized Lotka-Volterra dynamics to account for external perturbations. Data from recent experiments on antibiotic-mediated Clostridium difficile infection is analyzed to quantify microbial interactions, commensal-pathogen interactions, and the effect of the antibiotic on the community. Stability analysis reveals that the microbiota is intrinsically stable, explaining how antibiotic perturbations and C. difficile inoculation can produce catastrophic shifts that persist even after removal of the perturbations. Importantly, the analysis suggests a subnetwork of bacterial groups implicated in protection against C. difficile. Due to its generality, our method can be applied to any high-resolution ecological time-series data to infer community structure and response to external stimuli.

  2. Ecological modeling from time-series inference: insight into dynamics and stability of intestinal microbiota.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard R Stein

    Full Text Available The intestinal microbiota is a microbial ecosystem of crucial importance to human health. Understanding how the microbiota confers resistance against enteric pathogens and how antibiotics disrupt that resistance is key to the prevention and cure of intestinal infections. We present a novel method to infer microbial community ecology directly from time-resolved metagenomics. This method extends generalized Lotka-Volterra dynamics to account for external perturbations. Data from recent experiments on antibiotic-mediated Clostridium difficile infection is analyzed to quantify microbial interactions, commensal-pathogen interactions, and the effect of the antibiotic on the community. Stability analysis reveals that the microbiota is intrinsically stable, explaining how antibiotic perturbations and C. difficile inoculation can produce catastrophic shifts that persist even after removal of the perturbations. Importantly, the analysis suggests a subnetwork of bacterial groups implicated in protection against C. difficile. Due to its generality, our method can be applied to any high-resolution ecological time-series data to infer community structure and response to external stimuli.

  3. Mocapy++ - A toolkit for inference and learning in dynamic Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamelryck Thomas

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mocapy++ is a toolkit for parameter learning and inference in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs. It supports a wide range of DBN architectures and probability distributions, including distributions from directional statistics (the statistics of angles, directions and orientations. Results The program package is freely available under the GNU General Public Licence (GPL from SourceForge http://sourceforge.net/projects/mocapy. The package contains the source for building the Mocapy++ library, several usage examples and the user manual. Conclusions Mocapy++ is especially suitable for constructing probabilistic models of biomolecular structure, due to its support for directional statistics. In particular, it supports the Kent distribution on the sphere and the bivariate von Mises distribution on the torus. These distributions have proven useful to formulate probabilistic models of protein and RNA structure in atomic detail.

  4. Gaussian process inference for estimating pharmacokinetic parameters of dynamic contrast-enhanced MR images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shijun; Liu, Peter; Turkbey, Baris; Choyke, Peter; Pinto, Peter; Summers, Ronald M

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new pharmacokinetic model for parameter estimation of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI by using Gaussian process inference. Our model is based on the Tofts dual-compartment model for the description of tracer kinetics and the observed time series from DCE-MRI is treated as a Gaussian stochastic process. The parameter estimation is done through a maximum likelihood approach and we propose a variant of the coordinate descent method to solve this likelihood maximization problem. The new model was shown to outperform a baseline method on simulated data. Parametric maps generated on prostate DCE data with the new model also provided better enhancement of tumors, lower intensity on false positives, and better boundary delineation when compared with the baseline method. New statistical parameter maps from the process model were also found to be informative, particularly when paired with the PK parameter maps.

  5. A computational approach for inferring the cell wall properties that govern guard cell dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolfenden, Hugh C; Bourdais, Gildas; Kopischke, Michaela; Miedes, Eva; Molina, Antonio; Robatzek, Silke; Morris, Richard J

    2017-10-01

    Guard cells dynamically adjust their shape in order to regulate photosynthetic gas exchange, respiration rates and defend against pathogen entry. Cell shape changes are determined by the interplay of cell wall material properties and turgor pressure. To investigate this relationship between turgor pressure, cell wall properties and cell shape, we focused on kidney-shaped stomata and developed a biomechanical model of a guard cell pair. Treating the cell wall as a composite of the pectin-rich cell wall matrix embedded with cellulose microfibrils, we show that strong, circumferentially oriented fibres are critical for opening. We find that the opening dynamics are dictated by the mechanical stress response of the cell wall matrix, and as the turgor rises, the pectinaceous matrix stiffens. We validate these predictions with stomatal opening experiments in selected Arabidopsis cell wall mutants. Thus, using a computational framework that combines a 3D biomechanical model with parameter optimization, we demonstrate how to exploit subtle shape changes to infer cell wall material properties. Our findings reveal that proper stomatal dynamics are built on two key properties of the cell wall, namely anisotropy in the form of hoop reinforcement and strain stiffening. © 2017 The Authors The Plant Journal © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Society for Experimental Biology.

  6. Characterization of the conformational space of a triple-stranded beta-sheet forming peptide with molecular dynamics simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soto, P; Colombo, G

    2004-01-01

    Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have been performed on a series of mutants of the 20 amino acid peptide Betanova in order to critically assess the ability of MD simulations to reproduce the folding and stability of small beta-sheet-forming peptides on currently accessible timescales. Simulations

  7. Analytical and molecular dynamics studies on the impact loading of single-layered graphene sheet by fullerene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini-Hashemi, Shahrokh; Sepahi-Boroujeni, Amin; Sepahi-Boroujeni, Saeid

    2018-04-01

    Normal impact performance of a system including a fullerene molecule and a single-layered graphene sheet is studied in the present paper. Firstly, through a mathematical approach, a new contact law is derived to describe the overall non-bonding interaction forces of the "hollow indenter-target" system. Preliminary verifications show that the derived contact law gives a reliable picture of force field of the system which is in good agreements with the results of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Afterwards, equation of the transversal motion of graphene sheet is utilized on the basis of both the nonlocal theory of elasticity and the assumptions of classical plate theory. Then, to derive dynamic behavior of the system, a set including the proposed contact law and the equations of motion of both graphene sheet and fullerene molecule is solved numerically. In order to evaluate outcomes of this method, the problem is modeled by MD simulation. Despite intrinsic differences between analytical and MD methods as well as various errors arise due to transient nature of the problem, acceptable agreements are established between analytical and MD outcomes. As a result, the proposed analytical method can be reliably used to address similar impact problems. Furthermore, it is found that a single-layered graphene sheet is capable of trapping fullerenes approaching with low velocities. Otherwise, in case of rebound, the sheet effectively absorbs predominant portion of fullerene energy.

  8. Dark ice dynamics of the south-west Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tedstone, Andrew J.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Cook, Joseph M.; Williamson, Christopher J.; Fettweis, Xavier; Hodson, Andrew J.; Tranter, Martyn

    2017-11-01

    Runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has increased in recent years due largely to changes in atmospheric circulation and atmospheric warming. Albedo reductions resulting from these changes have amplified surface melting. Some of the largest declines in GrIS albedo have occurred in the ablation zone of the south-west sector and are associated with the development of dark ice surfaces. Field observations at local scales reveal that a variety of light-absorbing impurities (LAIs) can be present on the surface, ranging from inorganic particulates to cryoconite materials and ice algae. Meanwhile, satellite observations show that the areal extent of dark ice has varied significantly between recent successive melt seasons. However, the processes that drive such large interannual variability in dark ice extent remain essentially unconstrained. At present we are therefore unable to project how the albedo of bare ice sectors of the GrIS will evolve in the future, causing uncertainty in the projected sea level contribution from the GrIS over the coming decades. Here we use MODIS satellite imagery to examine dark ice dynamics on the south-west GrIS each year from 2000 to 2016. We quantify dark ice in terms of its annual extent, duration, intensity and timing of first appearance. Not only does dark ice extent vary significantly between years but so too does its duration (from 0 to > 80 % of June-July-August, JJA), intensity and the timing of its first appearance. Comparison of dark ice dynamics with potential meteorological drivers from the regional climate model MAR reveals that the JJA sensible heat flux, the number of positive minimum-air-temperature days and the timing of bare ice appearance are significant interannual synoptic controls. We use these findings to identify the surface processes which are most likely to explain recent dark ice dynamics. We suggest that whilst the spatial distribution of dark ice is best explained by outcropping of particulates from

  9. Dynamical Bayesian inference of time-evolving interactions: From a pair of coupled oscillators to networks of oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggento, Andrea; Stankovski, Tomislav; McClintock, Peter V. E.; Stefanovska, Aneta

    2012-12-01

    Living systems have time-evolving interactions that, until recently, could not be identified accurately from recorded time series in the presence of noise. Stankovski [Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.109.024101 109, 024101 (2012)] introduced a method based on dynamical Bayesian inference that facilitates the simultaneous detection of time-varying synchronization, directionality of influence, and coupling functions. It can distinguish unsynchronized dynamics from noise-induced phase slips. The method is based on phase dynamics, with Bayesian inference of the time-evolving parameters being achieved by shaping the prior densities to incorporate knowledge of previous samples. We now present the method in detail using numerically generated data, data from an analog electronic circuit, and cardiorespiratory data. We also generalize the method to encompass networks of interacting oscillators and thus demonstrate its applicability to small-scale networks.

  10. Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Fürst

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Continuing global warming will have a strong impact on the Greenland ice sheet in the coming centuries. During the last decade (2000–2010, both increased melt-water runoff and enhanced ice discharge from calving glaciers have contributed 0.6 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 to global sea-level rise, with a relative contribution of 60 and 40% respectively. Here we use a higher-order ice flow model, spun up to present day, to simulate future ice volume changes driven by both atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes. For these projections, the flow model accounts for runoff-induced basal lubrication and ocean warming-induced discharge increase at the marine margins. For a suite of 10 atmosphere and ocean general circulation models and four representative concentration pathway scenarios, the projected sea-level rise between 2000 and 2100 lies in the range of +1.4 to +16.6 cm. For two low emission scenarios, the projections are conducted up to 2300. Ice loss rates are found to abate for the most favourable scenario where the warming peaks in this century, allowing the ice sheet to maintain a geometry close to the present-day state. For the other moderate scenario, loss rates remain at a constant level over 300 years. In any scenario, volume loss is predominantly caused by increased surface melting as the contribution from enhanced ice discharge decreases over time and is self-limited by thinning and retreat of the marine margin, reducing the ice–ocean contact area. As confirmed by other studies, we find that the effect of enhanced basal lubrication on the volume evolution is negligible on centennial timescales. Our projections show that the observed rates of volume change over the last decades cannot simply be extrapolated over the 21st century on account of a different balance of processes causing ice loss over time. Our results also indicate that the largest source of uncertainty arises from the surface mass balance and the underlying climate change

  11. Inference of time-delayed gene regulatory networks based on dynamic Bayesian network hybrid learning method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bin; Xu, Jia-Meng; Li, Shan; Chen, Cheng; Chen, Rui-Xin; Wang, Lei; Zhang, Yan; Wang, Ming-Hui

    2017-10-06

    Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) research reveals complex life phenomena from the perspective of gene interaction, which is an important research field in systems biology. Traditional Bayesian networks have a high computational complexity, and the network structure scoring model has a single feature. Information-based approaches cannot identify the direction of regulation. In order to make up for the shortcomings of the above methods, this paper presents a novel hybrid learning method (DBNCS) based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to construct the multiple time-delayed GRNs for the first time, combining the comprehensive score (CS) with the DBN model. DBNCS algorithm first uses CMI2NI (conditional mutual inclusive information-based network inference) algorithm for network structure profiles learning, namely the construction of search space. Then the redundant regulations are removed by using the recursive optimization algorithm (RO), thereby reduce the false positive rate. Secondly, the network structure profiles are decomposed into a set of cliques without loss, which can significantly reduce the computational complexity. Finally, DBN model is used to identify the direction of gene regulation within the cliques and search for the optimal network structure. The performance of DBNCS algorithm is evaluated by the benchmark GRN datasets from DREAM challenge as well as the SOS DNA repair network in Escherichia coli , and compared with other state-of-the-art methods. The experimental results show the rationality of the algorithm design and the outstanding performance of the GRNs.

  12. Macroevolutionary dynamics and historical biogeography of primate diversification inferred from a species supermatrix.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark S Springer

    Full Text Available Phylogenetic relationships, divergence times, and patterns of biogeographic descent among primate species are both complex and contentious. Here, we generate a robust molecular phylogeny for 70 primate genera and 367 primate species based on a concatenation of 69 nuclear gene segments and ten mitochondrial gene sequences, most of which were extracted from GenBank. Relaxed clock analyses of divergence times with 14 fossil-calibrated nodes suggest that living Primates last shared a common ancestor 71-63 Ma, and that divergences within both Strepsirrhini and Haplorhini are entirely post-Cretaceous. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction of non-avian dinosaurs played an important role in the diversification of placental mammals. Previous queries into primate historical biogeography have suggested Africa, Asia, Europe, or North America as the ancestral area of crown primates, but were based on methods that were coopted from phylogeny reconstruction. By contrast, we analyzed our molecular phylogeny with two methods that were developed explicitly for ancestral area reconstruction, and find support for the hypothesis that the most recent common ancestor of living Primates resided in Asia. Analyses of primate macroevolutionary dynamics provide support for a diversification rate increase in the late Miocene, possibly in response to elevated global mean temperatures, and are consistent with the fossil record. By contrast, diversification analyses failed to detect evidence for rate-shift changes near the Eocene-Oligocene boundary even though the fossil record provides clear evidence for a major turnover event ("Grande Coupure" at this time. Our results highlight the power and limitations of inferring diversification dynamics from molecular phylogenies, as well as the sensitivity of diversification analyses to different species concepts.

  13. Dynamic Antarctic ice sheet during the early to mid-Miocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasson, Edward; DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David; Levy, Richard H.

    2016-03-01

    Geological data indicate that there were major variations in Antarctic ice sheet volume and extent during the early to mid-Miocene. Simulating such large-scale changes is problematic because of a strong hysteresis effect, which results in stability once the ice sheets have reached continental size. A relatively narrow range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations indicated by proxy records exacerbates this problem. Here, we are able to simulate large-scale variability of the early to mid-Miocene Antarctic ice sheet because of three developments in our modeling approach. (i) We use a climate-ice sheet coupling method utilizing a high-resolution atmospheric component to account for ice sheet-climate feedbacks. (ii) The ice sheet model includes recently proposed mechanisms for retreat into deep subglacial basins caused by ice-cliff failure and ice-shelf hydrofracture. (iii) We account for changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of the ice sheet by using isotope-enabled climate and ice sheet models. We compare our modeling results with ice-proximal records emerging from a sedimentological drill core from the Ross Sea (Andrill-2A) that is presented in a companion article. The variability in Antarctic ice volume that we simulate is equivalent to a seawater oxygen isotope signal of 0.52-0.66‰, or a sea level equivalent change of 30-36 m, for a range of atmospheric CO2 between 280 and 500 ppm and a changing astronomical configuration. This result represents a substantial advance in resolving the long-standing model data conflict of Miocene Antarctic ice sheet and sea level variability.

  14. Measurement and inference of profile soil-water dynamics at different hillslope positions in a semiarid agricultural watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Timothy R.; Erskine, Robert H.

    2011-12-01

    Dynamics of profile soil water vary with terrain, soil, and plant characteristics. The objectives addressed here are to quantify dynamic soil water content over a range of slope positions, infer soil profile water fluxes, and identify locations most likely influenced by multidimensional flow. The instrumented 56 ha watershed lies mostly within a dryland (rainfed) wheat field in semiarid eastern Colorado. Dielectric capacitance sensors were used to infer hourly soil water content for approximately 8 years (minus missing data) at 18 hillslope positions and four or more depths. Based on previous research and a new algorithm, sensor measurements (resonant frequency) were rescaled to estimate soil permittivity, then corrected for temperature effects on bulk electrical conductivity before inferring soil water content. Using a mass-conservation method, we analyzed multitemporal changes in soil water content at each sensor to infer the dynamics of water flux at different depths and landscape positions. At summit positions vertical processes appear to control profile soil water dynamics. At downslope positions infrequent overland flow and unsaturated subsurface lateral flow appear to influence soil water dynamics. Crop water use accounts for much of the variability in soil water between transects that are either cropped or fallow in alternating years, while soil hydraulic properties and near-surface hydrology affect soil water variability across landscape positions within each management zone. The observed spatiotemporal patterns exhibit the joint effects of short-term hydrology and long-term soil development. Quantitative methods of analyzing soil water patterns in space and time improve our understanding of dominant soil hydrological processes and provide alternative measures of model performance.

  15. Dynamics of Melting and Melt Migration as Inferred from Incompatible Trace Element Abundance in Abyssal Peridotites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Q.; Liang, Y.

    2008-12-01

    To better understand the melting processes beneath the mid-ocean ridge, we developed a simple model for trace element fractionation during concurrent melting and melt migration in an upwelling steady-state mantle column. Based on petrologic considerations, we divided the upwelling mantle into two regions: a double- lithology upper region where high permeability dunite channels are embedded in a lherzolite/harzburgite matrix, and a single-lithology lower region that consists of partially molten lherzolite. Melt generated in the single lithology region migrates upward through grain-scale diffuse porous flow, whereas melt in the lherzolite/harzburgite matrix in the double-lithology region is allowed to flow both vertically through the overlying matrix and horizontally into its neighboring dunite channels. There are three key dynamic parameters in our model: degree of melting experienced by the single lithology column (Fd), degree of melting experienced by the double lithology column (F), and a dimensionless melt suction rate (R) that measures the accumulated rate of melt extraction from the matrix to the channel relative to the accumulated rate of matrix melting. In terms of trace element fractionation, upwelling and melting in the single lithology column is equivalent to non-modal batch melting (R = 0), whereas melting and melt migration in the double lithology region is equivalent to a nonlinear combination of non-modal batch and fractional melting (0 abyssal peridotite, we showed, with the help of Monte Carlo simulations, that it is difficult to invert for all three dynamic parameters from a set of incompatible trace element data with confidence. However, given Fd, it is quite possible to constrain F and R from incompatible trace element abundances in residual peridotite. As an illustrative example, we used the simple melting model developed in this study and selected REE and Y abundance in diopside from abyssal peridotites to infer their melting and melt migration

  16. MASS BALANCE CHANGES AND ICE DYNAMICS OF GREENLAND AND ANTARCTIC ICE SHEETS FROM LASER ALTIMETRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Babonis

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available During the past few decades the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have lost ice at accelerating rates, caused by increasing surface temperature. The melting of the two big ice sheets has a big impact on global sea level rise. If the ice sheets would melt down entirely, the sea level would rise more than 60 m. Even a much smaller rise would cause dramatic damage along coastal regions. In this paper we report about a major upgrade of surface elevation changes derived from laser altimetry data, acquired by NASA’s Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite mission (ICESat and airborne laser campaigns, such as Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM and Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS. For detecting changes in ice sheet elevations we have developed the Surface Elevation Reconstruction And Change detection (SERAC method. It computes elevation changes of small surface patches by keeping the surface shape constant and considering the absolute values as surface elevations. We report about important upgrades of earlier results, for example the inclusion of local ice caps and the temporal extension from 1993 to 2014 for the Greenland Ice Sheet and for a comprehensive reconstruction of ice thickness and mass changes for the Antarctic Ice Sheets.

  17. Features of energetic particle radial profiles inferred from geosynchronous responses to solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Shi

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Determination of the radial profile of phase space density of relativistic electrons at constant adiabatic invariants is crucial for identifying the source for them within the outer radiation belt. The commonly used method is to convert flux observed at fixed energy to phase space density at constant first, second and third adiabatic invariants, which requires an empirical global magnetic field model and thus might produce some uncertainties in the final results. From a different perspective, in this paper we indirectly infer the shape of the radial profile of phase space density of relativistic electrons near the geosynchronous region by statistically examining the geosynchronous energetic flux response to 128 solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements during the years 2000 to 2003. We thus avoid the disadvantage of using empirical magnetic field models. Our results show that the flux response is species and energy dependent. For protons and low-energy electrons, the primary response to magnetospheric compression is an increase in flux at geosynchronous orbit. For relativistic electrons, the dominant response is a decrease in flux, which implies that the phase space density decreases toward increasing radial distance at geosynchronous orbit and leads to a local peak inside of geosynchronous orbit. The flux response of protons and non-relativistic electrons could result from a phase density that increases toward increasing radial distance, but this cannot be determined for sure due to the particle energization associated with pressure enhancements. Our results for relativistic electrons are consistent with previous results obtained using magnetic field models, thus providing additional confirmation that these results are correct and indicating that they are not the result of errors in their selected magnetic field model.

  18. Challenges to inferring causality from viral information dispersion in dynamic social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ternovski, John

    2014-06-01

    Understanding the mechanism behind large-scale information dispersion through complex networks has important implications for a variety of industries ranging from cyber-security to public health. With the unprecedented availability of public data from online social networks (OSNs) and the low cost nature of most OSN outreach, randomized controlled experiments, the "gold standard" of causal inference methodologies, have been used with increasing regularity to study viral information dispersion. And while these studies have dramatically furthered our understanding of how information disseminates through social networks by isolating causal mechanisms, there are still major methodological concerns that need to be addressed in future research. This paper delineates why modern OSNs are markedly different from traditional sociological social networks and why these differences present unique challenges to experimentalists and data scientists. The dynamic nature of OSNs is particularly troublesome for researchers implementing experimental designs, so this paper identifies major sources of bias arising from network mutability and suggests strategies to circumvent and adjust for these biases. This paper also discusses the practical considerations of data quality and collection, which may adversely impact the efficiency of the estimator. The major experimental methodologies used in the current literature on virality are assessed at length, and their strengths and limits identified. Other, as-yetunsolved threats to the efficiency and unbiasedness of causal estimators--such as missing data--are also discussed. This paper integrates methodologies and learnings from a variety of fields under an experimental and data science framework in order to systematically consolidate and identify current methodological limitations of randomized controlled experiments conducted in OSNs.

  19. Contrasting dynamics of electrons and protons in the near-Earth plasma sheet during dipolarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malykhin, Andrey Y.; Grigorenko, Elena E.; Kronberg, Elena A.; Koleva, Rositza; Ganushkina, Natalia Y.; Kozak, Ludmila; Daly, Patrick W.

    2018-05-01

    The fortunate location of Cluster and the THEMIS P3 probe in the near-Earth plasma sheet (PS) (at X ˜ -7-9 RE) allowed for the multipoint analysis of properties and spectra of electron and proton injections. The injections were observed during dipolarization and substorm current wedge formation associated with braking of multiple bursty bulk flows (BBFs). In the course of dipolarization, a gradual growth of the BZ magnetic field lasted ˜ 13 min and it was comprised of several BZ pulses or dipolarization fronts (DFs) with duration ≤ 1 min. Multipoint observations have shown that the beginning of the increase in suprathermal ( > 50 keV) electron fluxes - the injection boundary - was observed in the PS simultaneously with the dipolarization onset and it propagated dawnward along with the onset-related DF. The subsequent dynamics of the energetic electron flux was similar to the dynamics of the magnetic field during the dipolarization. Namely, a gradual linear growth of the electron flux occurred simultaneously with the gradual growth of the BZ field, and it was comprised of multiple short ( ˜ few minutes) electron injections associated with the BZ pulses. This behavior can be explained by the combined action of local betatron acceleration at the BZ pulses and subsequent gradient drifts of electrons in the flux pile up region through the numerous braking and diverting DFs. The nonadiabatic features occasionally observed in the electron spectra during the injections can be due to the electron interactions with high-frequency electromagnetic or electrostatic fluctuations transiently observed in the course of dipolarization. On the contrary, proton injections were detected only in the vicinity of the strongest BZ pulses. The front thickness of these pulses was less than a gyroradius of thermal protons that ensured the nonadiabatic acceleration of protons. Indeed, during the injections in the energy spectra of protons the pronounced bulge was clearly observed in a

  20. Temperature and heat flux changes at the base of Laurentide ice sheet inferred from geothermal data (evidence from province of Alberta, Canada)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Demezhko, D.; Gornostaeva, A.; Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, Jan

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 107, č. 1 (2018), s. 113-121 ISSN 1437-3254 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : borehole temperature * paleoclimate reconstruction * surface heat flux * ground surface temperature * Laurentide ice sheet Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.283, year: 2016

  1. Future Antarctic Bed Topography and Its Implications for Ice Sheet Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Surendra; Ivins, Erik R.; Larour, Eric Y.; Seroussi, Helene L.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Nowicki, S.

    2014-01-01

    The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves.We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS.We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45mmyr-1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

  2. Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E.; Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Nowicki, S.

    2014-06-01

    The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves. We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS. We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45 mm yr-1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

  3. Simulating a Dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Early to Middle Miocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasson, E.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.; Levy, R. H.

    2015-12-01

    There are a variety of sources of geological data that suggest major variations in the volume and extent of the Antarctic ice sheet during the early to middle Miocene. Simulating such variability using coupled climate-ice sheet models is problematic due to a strong hysteresis effect caused by height-mass balance feedback and albedo feedback. This results in limited retreat of the ice sheet once it has reached the continental size, as likely occurred prior to the Miocene. Proxy records suggest a relatively narrow range of atmospheric CO2 during the early to middle Miocene, which exacerbates this problem. We use a new climate forcing which accounts for ice sheet-climate feedbacks through an asynchronous GCM-RCM coupling, which is able to better resolve the narrow Antarctic ablation zone in warm climate simulations. When combined with recently suggested mechanisms for retreat into subglacial basins due to ice shelf hydrofracture and ice cliff failure, we are able to simulate large-scale variability of the Antarctic ice sheet in the Miocene. This variability is equivalent to a seawater oxygen isotope signal of ~0.5 ‰, or a sea level equivalent change of ~35 m, for a range of atmospheric CO2 between 280 - 500 ppm.

  4. Experimental study of nonlinear interaction of plasma flow with charged thin current sheets: 2. Hall dynamics, mass and momentum transfer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Savin

    2006-01-01

    cyclotron one, in extended turbulent zones are a promising alternative in place of the usual parallel electric fields invoked in the macro-reconnection scenarios. Further cascading towards electron scales is supposed to be due to unstable parallel electron currents, which neutralize the potential differences, either resulted from the ion- burst interactions or from the inertial drift. The complicated MP shape suggests its systematic velocity departure from the local normal towards the average one, inferring domination for the MP movement of the non-local processes over the small-scale local ones. The measured Poynting vector indicates energy transmission from the MP into the upstream region with the waves triggering impulsive downstream flows, providing an input into the local flow balance and the outward movement of the MP. Equating the transverse electric field inside the MP TCS by the Hall term in the Ohm's law implies a separation of the different plasmas primarily by the Hall current, driven by the respective part of the TCS surface charge. The Hall dynamics of TCS can operate either without or as a part of a macro-reconnection with the magnetic field annihilation.

  5. Multimodel inference to quantify the relative importance of abiotic factors in the population dynamics of marine zooplankton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everaert, Gert; Deschutter, Yana; De Troch, Marleen; Janssen, Colin R.; De Schamphelaere, Karel

    2018-05-01

    The effect of multiple stressors on marine ecosystems remains poorly understood and most of the knowledge available is related to phytoplankton. To partly address this knowledge gap, we tested if combining multimodel inference with generalized additive modelling could quantify the relative contribution of environmental variables on the population dynamics of a zooplankton species in the Belgian part of the North Sea. Hence, we have quantified the relative contribution of oceanographic variables (e.g. water temperature, salinity, nutrient concentrations, and chlorophyll a concentrations) and anthropogenic chemicals (i.e. polychlorinated biphenyls) to the density of Acartia clausi. We found that models with water temperature and chlorophyll a concentration explained ca. 73% of the population density of the marine copepod. Multimodel inference in combination with regression-based models are a generic way to disentangle and quantify multiple stressor-induced changes in marine ecosystems. Future-oriented simulations of copepod densities suggested increased copepod densities under predicted environmental changes.

  6. The off-shell closed strings as the topological open membranes. Dynamical transmutation of world sheet dimension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kogan, Y.I.

    1989-05-01

    Using the connection between (2+1) Chern-Simons gauge theory and 2d Conformal Field Theory the on-shell string condition is obtained as a condition of full independence of interior of (2+1) world. The new method for off-shell continuation is considered based on the introduction of the Maxwell term in (2+1) theory. This leads to dynamical transmutation of world-sheet dimensions - the off-shell string becomes topological membrane (topological means that (2+1) theory has topological mass term). The dependence of parameters of (2+1) theory under the external fields is discussed. (author). 17 refs

  7. Fusion And Inference From Multiple And Massive Disparate Distributed Dynamic Data Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-01

    computational execution together form a comprehensive, widely- applicable paradigm for statistical graph inference. Approved for Public Release; Distribution...always involve challenging empirical modeling and implementation issues. Our project has propelled the mathematical development, statistical design...D. J., and Sussman, D. L., “A limit theorem for scaled eigenvectors of random dot product graphs,” Sankhya A. Mathemat - ical Statistics and

  8. Inference for Ecological Dynamical Systems: A Case Study of Two Endemic Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel A. Vasco

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is used to infer parameters for an open stochastic epidemiological model: the Markovian susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR model, which is suitable for modeling and simulating recurrent epidemics. This allows exploring two major problems of inference appearing in many mechanistic population models. First, trajectories of these processes are often only partly observed. For example, during an epidemic the transmission process is only partly observable: one cannot record infection times. Therefore, one only records cases (infections as the observations. As a result some means of imputing or reconstructing individuals in the susceptible cases class must be accomplished. Second, the official reporting of observations (cases in epidemiology is typically done not as they are actually recorded but at some temporal interval over which they have been aggregated. To address these issues, this paper investigates the following problems. Parameter inference for a perfectly sampled open Markovian SIR is first considered. Next inference for an imperfectly observed sample path of the system is studied. Although this second problem has been solved for the case of closed epidemics, it has proven quite difficult for the case of open recurrent epidemics. Lastly, application of the statistical theory is made to measles and pertussis epidemic time series data from 60 UK cities.

  9. Application of Non-Kolmogorovian Probability and Quantum Adaptive Dynamics to Unconscious Inference in Visual Perception Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Accardi, Luigi; Khrennikov, Andrei; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu; Yamato, Ichiro

    2016-07-01

    Recently a novel quantum information formalism — quantum adaptive dynamics — was developed and applied to modelling of information processing by bio-systems including cognitive phenomena: from molecular biology (glucose-lactose metabolism for E.coli bacteria, epigenetic evolution) to cognition, psychology. From the foundational point of view quantum adaptive dynamics describes mutual adapting of the information states of two interacting systems (physical or biological) as well as adapting of co-observations performed by the systems. In this paper we apply this formalism to model unconscious inference: the process of transition from sensation to perception. The paper combines theory and experiment. Statistical data collected in an experimental study on recognition of a particular ambiguous figure, the Schröder stairs, support the viability of the quantum(-like) model of unconscious inference including modelling of biases generated by rotation-contexts. From the probabilistic point of view, we study (for concrete experimental data) the problem of contextuality of probability, its dependence on experimental contexts. Mathematically contextuality leads to non-Komogorovness: probability distributions generated by various rotation contexts cannot be treated in the Kolmogorovian framework. At the same time they can be embedded in a “big Kolmogorov space” as conditional probabilities. However, such a Kolmogorov space has too complex structure and the operational quantum formalism in the form of quantum adaptive dynamics simplifies the modelling essentially.

  10. Efficient Model Order Reduction for the Dynamics of Nonlinear Multilayer Sheet Structures with Trial Vector Derivatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Witteveen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanical response of multilayer sheet structures, such as leaf springs or car bodies, is largely determined by the nonlinear contact and friction forces between the sheets involved. Conventional computational approaches based on classical reduction techniques or the direct finite element approach have an inefficient balance between computational time and accuracy. In the present contribution, the method of trial vector derivatives is applied and extended in order to obtain a-priori trial vectors for the model reduction which are suitable for determining the nonlinearities in the joints of the reduced system. Findings show that the result quality in terms of displacements and contact forces is comparable to the direct finite element method but the computational effort is extremely low due to the model order reduction. Two numerical studies are presented to underline the method’s accuracy and efficiency. In conclusion, this approach is discussed with respect to the existing body of literature.

  11. Texture evolution in thin-sheets on AISI 301 metastable stainless steel under dynamic loading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, K.Y. [Posco Steels, Pohan, South Korea (Korea, Republic of); Kozaczek, K. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Kulkarni, S.M. [TRW Vehicle Safety Systems, Mesa, AZ (United States); Bastias, P.C.; Hahn, G.T. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1995-05-08

    The evolution of texture in thin sheets of metastable austenitic stainless steel AISI 301 is affected by external conditions such as loading rate and temperature, by inhomogeneous deformation phenomena such as twinning and shear band formation, and by the concurent strain induced phase transformation of the retained austenitc ({gamma}) into martensite ({alpha}). The present paper describes texture measurements on different gauges of AISI 301 prior and after uniaxial stretching under different conditions.

  12. The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet–climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. B. Stap

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (∼ 34 Myr ago, land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice–albedo and surface–height–temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet–climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the

  13. Variability of dynamic source parameters inferred from kinematic models of past earthquakes

    KAUST Repository

    Causse, M.; Dalguer, L. A.; Mai, Paul Martin

    2013-01-01

    We analyse the scaling and distribution of average dynamic source properties (fracture energy, static, dynamic and apparent stress drops) using 31 kinematic inversion models from 21 crustal earthquakes. Shear-stress histories are computed by solving

  14. Microbial DNA fingerprinting of human fingerprints: dynamic colonization of fingertip microflora challenges human host inferences for forensic purposes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tims, Sebastian; van Wamel, Willem; Endtz, Hubert P; van Belkum, Alex; Kayser, Manfred

    2010-09-01

    Human fingertip microflora is transferred to touched objects and may provide forensically relevant information on individual hosts, such as on geographic origins, if endogenous microbial skin species/strains would be retrievable from physical fingerprints and would carry geographically restricted DNA diversity. We tested the suitability of physical fingerprints for revealing human host information, with geographic inference as example, via microbial DNA fingerprinting. We showed that the transient exogenous fingertip microflora is frequently different from the resident endogenous bacteria of the same individuals. In only 54% of the experiments, the DNA analysis of the transient fingertip microflora allowed the detection of defined, but often not the major, elements of the resident microflora. Although we found microbial persistency in certain individuals, time-wise variation of transient and resident microflora within individuals was also observed when resampling fingerprints after 3 weeks. While microbial species differed considerably in their frequency spectrum between fingerprint samples from volunteers in Europe and southern Asia, there was no clear geographic distinction between Staphylococcus strains in a cluster analysis, although bacterial genotypes did not overlap between both continental regions. Our results, though limited in quantity, clearly demonstrate that the dynamic fingerprint microflora challenges human host inferences for forensic purposes including geographic ones. Overall, our results suggest that human fingerprint microflora is too dynamic to allow for forensic marker developments for retrieving human information.

  15. Changes in ice dynamics and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rignot, Eric

    2006-07-15

    The concept that the Antarctic ice sheet changes with eternal slowness has been challenged by recent observations from satellites. Pronounced regional warming in the Antarctic Peninsula triggered ice shelf collapse, which led to a 10-fold increase in glacier flow and rapid ice sheet retreat. This chain of events illustrated the vulnerability of ice shelves to climate warming and their buffering role on the mass balance of Antarctica. In West Antarctica, the Pine Island Bay sector is draining far more ice into the ocean than is stored upstream from snow accumulation. This sector could raise sea level by 1m and trigger widespread retreat of ice in West Antarctica. Pine Island Glacier accelerated 38% since 1975, and most of the speed up took place over the last decade. Its neighbour Thwaites Glacier is widening up and may double its width when its weakened eastern ice shelf breaks up. Widespread acceleration in this sector may be caused by glacier ungrounding from ice shelf melting by an ocean that has recently warmed by 0.3 degrees C. In contrast, glaciers buffered from oceanic change by large ice shelves have only small contributions to sea level. In East Antarctica, many glaciers are close to a state of mass balance, but sectors grounded well below sea level, such as Cook Ice Shelf, Ninnis/Mertz, Frost and Totten glaciers, are thinning and losing mass. Hence, East Antarctica is not immune to changes.

  16. Landquake dynamics inferred from seismic source inversion: Greenland and Sichuan events of 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, W. A.

    2017-12-01

    In June 2017 two catastrophic landquake events occurred in Greenland and Sichuan. The Greenland event leads to tsunami hazard in the small town of Nuugaarsiaq. A landquake in Sichuan hit the town, which resulted in over 100 death. Both two events generated the strong seismic signals recorded by the real-time global seismic network. I adopt an inversion algorithm to derive the landquake force time history (LFH) using the long-period waveforms, and the landslide volume ( 76 million m3) can be rapidly estimated, facilitating the tsunami-wave modeling for early warning purpose. Based on an integrated approach involving tsunami forward simulation and seismic waveform inversion, this study has significant implications to issuing actionable warnings before hazardous tsunami waves strike populated areas. Two single-forces (SFs) mechanism (two block model) yields the best explanation for Sichuan event, which demonstrates that secondary event (seismic inferred volume: 8.2 million m3) may be mobilized by collapse-mass hitting from initial rock avalanches ( 5.8 million m3), likely causing a catastrophic disaster. The later source with a force magnitude of 0.9967×1011 N occurred 70 seconds after first mass-movement occurrence. In contrast, first event has the smaller force magnitude of 0.8116×1011 N. In conclusion, seismically inferred physical parameters will substantially contribute to improving our understanding of landquake source mechanisms and mitigating similar hazards in other parts of the world.

  17. The influence of low latitude forcing on European Ice sheet dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaboth, Stefanie; Bahr, André; Lourens, Lucas J.

    2017-04-01

    Distinct mid-glacial δ18O enrichment events found at Site U1386 in the Gulf of Cadiz during Marine Isotope Stages 6 and 8 represent a striking feature absent in most deep-sea benthic δ18O records studied worldwide. These δ18O enrichment events are closely related to periods of maximum precession and aligned with previous findings from the Mediterranean and Red Seas. Here we present paired planktic and benthic stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) and Mg/Ca-based temperature records of Site U1386 of the last 300.000 years. Our results show that these δ18O enrichment events are recorded in both subsurface and bottom water masses and pre-date the largest cooling events along the Iberian Margin and associated European sourced meltwater pulses of the Drenthe and Fuhne major ice-sheet advances, suggesting that they instead correspond to periods of maximum ice volume extend in Europe.

  18. Bayesian inference for dynamic transcriptional regulation; the Hes1 system as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heron, Elizabeth A; Finkenstädt, Bärbel; Rand, David A

    2007-10-01

    In this study, we address the problem of estimating the parameters of regulatory networks and provide the first application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to experimental data. As a case study, we consider a stochastic model of the Hes1 system expressed in terms of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to which rigorous likelihood methods of inference can be applied. When fitting continuous-time stochastic models to discretely observed time series the lengths of the sampling intervals are important, and much of our study addresses the problem when the data are sparse. We estimate the parameters of an autoregulatory network providing results both for simulated and real experimental data from the Hes1 system. We develop an estimation algorithm using MCMC techniques which are flexible enough to allow for the imputation of latent data on a finer time scale and the presence of prior information about parameters which may be informed from other experiments as well as additional measurement error.

  19. Magnetic reconnection through the current sheets as the universal process for plasma dynamics in nonuniform magnetic fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, A.G.; Bogdanov, S.Yu.; Burilina, V.B.; Kyrie, N.P.

    1997-01-01

    Laboratory experiments are reported, in which we studied the possibilities of the formation of current sheets (CS) in different magnetic configurations, as well as the magnetic reconnection phenomena. In 2D magnetic fields with null-lines the CS formation was shown to be a typical process in both linear and nonlinear regimes. The problem of CS formation is of a fundamental importance in the general case of 3D magnetic configurations. We have revealed experimentally, that the formation of CS occurs in the various 3D configurations, both containing magnetic null-points and without them. At the same time, the CS parameters essentially depend on the local characteristics of the configuration. We may conclude therefore, that the self-organization of CS represents the universal process for the plasma dynamics in the nonuniform magnetic fields. (author)

  20. Variability of dynamic source parameters inferred from kinematic models of past earthquakes

    KAUST Repository

    Causse, M.

    2013-12-24

    We analyse the scaling and distribution of average dynamic source properties (fracture energy, static, dynamic and apparent stress drops) using 31 kinematic inversion models from 21 crustal earthquakes. Shear-stress histories are computed by solving the elastodynamic equations while imposing the slip velocity of a kinematic source model as a boundary condition on the fault plane. This is achieved using a 3-D finite difference method in which the rupture kinematics are modelled with the staggered-grid-split-node fault representation method of Dalguer & Day. Dynamic parameters are then estimated from the calculated stress-slip curves and averaged over the fault plane. Our results indicate that fracture energy, static, dynamic and apparent stress drops tend to increase with magnitude. The epistemic uncertainty due to uncertainties in kinematic inversions remains small (ϕ ∼ 0.1 in log10 units), showing that kinematic source models provide robust information to analyse the distribution of average dynamic source parameters. The proposed scaling relations may be useful to constrain friction law parameters in spontaneous dynamic rupture calculations for earthquake source studies, and physics-based near-source ground-motion prediction for seismic hazard and risk mitigation.

  1. Modeling the evolution of the Laurentide Ice Sheet from MIS 3 to the Last Glacial Maximum: an approach using sea level modeling and ice flow dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisenberg, J.; Pico, T.; Birch, L.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2017-12-01

    The history of the Laurentide Ice Sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum ( 26 ka; LGM) is constrained by geological evidence of ice margin retreat in addition to relative sea-level (RSL) records in both the near and far field. Nonetheless, few observations exist constraining the ice sheet's extent across the glacial build-up phase preceding the LGM. Recent work correcting RSL records along the U.S. mid-Atlantic dated to mid-MIS 3 (50-35 ka) for glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) infer that the Laurentide Ice Sheet grew by more than three-fold in the 15 ky leading into the LGM. Here we test the plausibility of a late and extremely rapid glaciation by driving a high-resolution ice sheet model, based on a nonlinear diffusion equation for the ice thickness. We initialize this model at 44 ka with the mid-MIS 3 ice sheet configuration proposed by Pico et al. (2017), GIA-corrected basal topography, and mass balance representative of mid-MIS 3 conditions. These simulations predict rapid growth of the eastern Laurentide Ice Sheet, with rates consistent with achieving LGM ice volumes within 15 ky. We use these simulations to refine the initial ice configuration and present an improved and higher resolution model for North American ice cover during mid-MIS 3. In addition we show that assumptions of ice loads during the glacial phase, and the associated reconstructions of GIA-corrected basal topography, produce a bias that can underpredict ice growth rates in the late stages of the glaciation, which has important consequences for our understanding of the speed limit for ice growth on glacial timescales.

  2. More or less-On the influence of labelling strategies to infer cell population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabel, Michael; Regoes, Roland R; Graw, Frederik

    2017-01-01

    The adoptive transfer of labelled cell populations has been an essential tool to determine and quantify cellular dynamics. The experimental methods to label and track cells over time range from fluorescent dyes over congenic markers towards single-cell labelling techniques, such as genetic barcodes. While these methods have been widely used to quantify cell differentiation and division dynamics, the extent to which the applied labelling strategy actually affects the quantification of the dynamics has not been determined so far. This is especially important in situations where measurements can only be obtained at a single time point, as e.g. due to organ harvest. To this end, we studied the appropriateness of various labelling strategies as characterised by the number of different labels and the initial number of cells per label to quantify cellular dynamics. We simulated adoptive transfer experiments in systems of various complexity that assumed either homoeostatic cellular turnover or cell expansion dynamics involving various steps of cell differentiation and proliferation. Re-sampling cells at a single time point, we determined the ability of different labelling strategies to recover the underlying kinetics. Our results indicate that cell transition and expansion rates are differently affected by experimental shortcomings, such as loss of cells during transfer or sampling, dependent on the labelling strategy used. Furthermore, uniformly distributed labels in the transferred population generally lead to more robust and less biased results than non-equal label sizes. In addition, our analysis indicates that certain labelling approaches incorporate a systematic bias for the identification of complex cell expansion dynamics.

  3. More or less-On the influence of labelling strategies to infer cell population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Gabel

    Full Text Available The adoptive transfer of labelled cell populations has been an essential tool to determine and quantify cellular dynamics. The experimental methods to label and track cells over time range from fluorescent dyes over congenic markers towards single-cell labelling techniques, such as genetic barcodes. While these methods have been widely used to quantify cell differentiation and division dynamics, the extent to which the applied labelling strategy actually affects the quantification of the dynamics has not been determined so far. This is especially important in situations where measurements can only be obtained at a single time point, as e.g. due to organ harvest. To this end, we studied the appropriateness of various labelling strategies as characterised by the number of different labels and the initial number of cells per label to quantify cellular dynamics. We simulated adoptive transfer experiments in systems of various complexity that assumed either homoeostatic cellular turnover or cell expansion dynamics involving various steps of cell differentiation and proliferation. Re-sampling cells at a single time point, we determined the ability of different labelling strategies to recover the underlying kinetics. Our results indicate that cell transition and expansion rates are differently affected by experimental shortcomings, such as loss of cells during transfer or sampling, dependent on the labelling strategy used. Furthermore, uniformly distributed labels in the transferred population generally lead to more robust and less biased results than non-equal label sizes. In addition, our analysis indicates that certain labelling approaches incorporate a systematic bias for the identification of complex cell expansion dynamics.

  4. Interactive desktop analysis of high resolution simulations: application to turbulent plume dynamics and current sheet formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clyne, John; Mininni, Pablo; Norton, Alan; Rast, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The ever increasing processing capabilities of the supercomputers available to computational scientists today, combined with the need for higher and higher resolution computational grids, has resulted in deluges of simulation data. Yet the computational resources and tools required to make sense of these vast numerical outputs through subsequent analysis are often far from adequate, making such analysis of the data a painstaking, if not a hopeless, task. In this paper, we describe a new tool for the scientific investigation of massive computational datasets. This tool (VAPOR) employs data reduction, advanced visualization, and quantitative analysis operations to permit the interactive exploration of vast datasets using only a desktop PC equipped with a commodity graphics card. We describe VAPORs use in the study of two problems. The first, motivated by stellar envelope convection, investigates the hydrodynamic stability of compressible thermal starting plumes as they descend through a stratified layer of increasing density with depth. The second looks at current sheet formation in an incompressible helical magnetohydrodynamic flow to understand the early spontaneous development of quasi two-dimensional (2D) structures embedded within the 3D solution. Both of the problems were studied at sufficiently high spatial resolution, a grid of 504 2 by 2048 points for the first and 1536 3 points for the second, to overwhelm the interactive capabilities of typically available analysis resources

  5. The Active Inference Approach to Ecological Perception: General Information Dynamics for Natural and Artificial Embodied Cognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Linson

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The emerging neurocomputational vision of humans as embodied, ecologically embedded, social agents—who shape and are shaped by their environment—offers a golden opportunity to revisit and revise ideas about the physical and information-theoretic underpinnings of life, mind, and consciousness itself. In particular, the active inference framework (AIF makes it possible to bridge connections from computational neuroscience and robotics/AI to ecological psychology and phenomenology, revealing common underpinnings and overcoming key limitations. AIF opposes the mechanistic to the reductive, while staying fully grounded in a naturalistic and information-theoretic foundation, using the principle of free energy minimization. The latter provides a theoretical basis for a unified treatment of particles, organisms, and interactive machines, spanning from the inorganic to organic, non-life to life, and natural to artificial agents. We provide a brief introduction to AIF, then explore its implications for evolutionary theory, ecological psychology, embodied phenomenology, and robotics/AI research. We conclude the paper by considering implications for machine consciousness.

  6. Seeing with the Mind: The Relationship Between Spatial Ability and Inferring Dynamic Behaviour from Graphs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldhuis, G.A.; Korzilius, H.P.L.M.

    2017-01-01

    Research has shown that many individuals have difficulties solving tasks that involve a principal component of dynamic systems: accumulation. They incorrectly assume that the behavioural pattern of a stock resembles that of its flows and vice versa. This has become known as correlation heuristic

  7. Seeing with the Mind: The Relationship Between Spatial Ability and Inferring Dynamic Behaviour from Graphs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldhuis, G.A.; Korzilius, H.

    2016-01-01

    Research has shown that many individuals have difficulties solving tasks that involve a principal component of dynamic systems: accumulation. They incorrectly assume that the behavioural pattern of a stock resembles that of its flows and vice versa. This has become known as correlation heuristic

  8. A canonical correlation analysis-based dynamic bayesian network prior to infer gene regulatory networks from multiple types of biological data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baur, Brittany; Bozdag, Serdar

    2015-04-01

    One of the challenging and important computational problems in systems biology is to infer gene regulatory networks (GRNs) of biological systems. Several methods that exploit gene expression data have been developed to tackle this problem. In this study, we propose the use of copy number and DNA methylation data to infer GRNs. We developed an algorithm that scores regulatory interactions between genes based on canonical correlation analysis. In this algorithm, copy number or DNA methylation variables are treated as potential regulator variables, and expression variables are treated as potential target variables. We first validated that the canonical correlation analysis method is able to infer true interactions in high accuracy. We showed that the use of DNA methylation or copy number datasets leads to improved inference over steady-state expression. Our results also showed that epigenetic and structural information could be used to infer directionality of regulatory interactions. Additional improvements in GRN inference can be gleaned from incorporating the result in an informative prior in a dynamic Bayesian algorithm. This is the first study that incorporates copy number and DNA methylation into an informative prior in dynamic Bayesian framework. By closely examining top-scoring interactions with different sources of epigenetic or structural information, we also identified potential novel regulatory interactions.

  9. Preparation of high bioactivity multilayered bone-marrow mesenchymal stem cell sheets for myocardial infarction using a 3D-dynamic system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingwei; Zhang, Jianhua; Qin, Zixi; Fan, Zepei; Lu, Cheng; Chen, Baoxin; Zhao, Jupeng; Li, Xiaojuan; Xiao, Fei; Lin, Xi; Wu, Zheng

    2018-05-01

    Cell sheet techniques offer a promising future for myocardial infarction (MI) therapy; however, insufficient nutrition supply remains the major limitation in maintaining stem cell bioactivity in vitro. In order to enhance cell sheet mechanical strength and bioactivity, a decellularized porcine pericardium (DPP) scaffold was prepared by the phospholipase A2 method, and aspartic acid was used as a spacer arm to improve the vascular endothelial growth factor crosslink efficiency on the DPP scaffold. Based on this scaffold, multilayered bone marrow mesenchymal stem cell sheets were rapidly constructed, using RAD16-I peptide hydrogel as a temporary 3D scaffold, and cell sheets were cultured in either the 3D-dynamic system (DCcs) or the traditional static condition (SCcs). The multilayered structure, stem cell bioactivity, and ultrastructure of DCcs and SCcs were assessed. The DCcs exhibited lower apoptosis, lower differentiation, and an improved paracrine effect after a 48 h culture in vitro compared to the SCcs. Four groups were set to evaluate the cell sheet effect in rat MI model: sham group, MI control group, DCcs group, and SCcs group. The DCcs group improved cardiac function and decreased the infarcted area compared to the MI control group, while no significant improvements were observed in the SCcs group. Improved cell survival, angiogenesis, and Sca-1 + cell and c-kit + cell amounts were observed in the DCcs group. In conclusion, the DCcs maintained higher stem cell bioactivity by using the 3D-dynamic system to provide sufficient nutrition, and transplanting DCcs significantly improved the cardiac function and angiogenesis. This study provides an efficient method to prepare vascular endothelial growth factor covalent decellularized pericardium scaffold with aspartic acid, and a multilayered bone marrow mesenchymal stem cell (BMSC) sheet is constructed on it using a 3D-dynamic system. The dynamic nutrition supply showed a significant benefit on BMSC bioactivity

  10. DREAM3: network inference using dynamic context likelihood of relatedness and the inferelator.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aviv Madar

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Many current works aiming to learn regulatory networks from systems biology data must balance model complexity with respect to data availability and quality. Methods that learn regulatory associations based on unit-less metrics, such as Mutual Information, are attractive in that they scale well and reduce the number of free parameters (model complexity per interaction to a minimum. In contrast, methods for learning regulatory networks based on explicit dynamical models are more complex and scale less gracefully, but are attractive as they may allow direct prediction of transcriptional dynamics and resolve the directionality of many regulatory interactions.We aim to investigate whether scalable information based methods (like the Context Likelihood of Relatedness method and more explicit dynamical models (like Inferelator 1.0 prove synergistic when combined. We test a pipeline where a novel modification of the Context Likelihood of Relatedness (mixed-CLR, modified to use time series data is first used to define likely regulatory interactions and then Inferelator 1.0 is used for final model selection and to build an explicit dynamical model.Our method ranked 2nd out of 22 in the DREAM3 100-gene in silico networks challenge. Mixed-CLR and Inferelator 1.0 are complementary, demonstrating a large performance gain relative to any single tested method, with precision being especially high at low recall values. Partitioning the provided data set into four groups (knock-down, knock-out, time-series, and combined revealed that using comprehensive knock-out data alone provides optimal performance. Inferelator 1.0 proved particularly powerful at resolving the directionality of regulatory interactions, i.e. "who regulates who" (approximately of identified true positives were correctly resolved. Performance drops for high in-degree genes, i.e. as the number of regulators per target gene increases, but not with out-degree, i.e. performance is not affected by

  11. Effect of initial strain and material nonlinearity on the nonlinear static and dynamic response of graphene sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Sandeep; Patel, B. P.

    2018-06-01

    Computationally efficient multiscale modelling based on Cauchy-Born rule in conjunction with finite element method is employed to study static and dynamic characteristics of graphene sheets, with/without considering initial strain, involving Green-Lagrange geometric and material nonlinearities. The strain energy density function at continuum level is established by coupling the deformation at continuum level to that at atomic level through Cauchy-Born rule. The atomic interactions between carbon atoms are modelled through Tersoff-Brenner potential. The governing equation of motion obtained using Hamilton's principle is solved through standard Newton-Raphson method for nonlinear static response and Newmark's time integration technique to obtain nonlinear transient response characteristics. Effect of initial strain on the linear free vibration frequencies, nonlinear static and dynamic response characteristics is investigated in detail. The present multiscale modelling based results are found to be in good agreement with those obtained through molecular mechanics simulation. Two different types of boundary constraints generally used in MM simulation are explored in detail and few interesting findings are brought out. The effect of initial strain is found to be greater in linear response when compared to that in nonlinear response.

  12. Inferring the physical connectivity of complex networks from their functional dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holm Liisa

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Biological networks, such as protein-protein interactions, metabolic, signalling, transcription-regulatory networks and neural synapses, are representations of large-scale dynamic systems. The relationship between the network structure and functions remains one of the central problems in current multidisciplinary research. Significant progress has been made toward understanding the implication of topological features for the network dynamics and functions, especially in biological networks. Given observations of a network system's behaviours or measurements of its functional dynamics, what can we conclude of the details of physical connectivity of the underlying structure? Results We modelled the network system by employing a scale-free network of coupled phase oscillators. Pairwise phase coherence (PPC was calculated for all the pairs of oscillators to present functional dynamics induced by the system. At the regime of global incoherence, we observed a Significant pairwise synchronization only between two nodes that are physically connected. Right after the onset of global synchronization, disconnected nodes begin to oscillate in a correlated fashion and the PPC of two nodes, either connected or disconnected, depends on their degrees. Based on the observation of PPCs, we built a weighted network of synchronization (WNS, an all-to-all functionally connected network where each link is weighted by the PPC of two oscillators at the ends of the link. In the regime of strong coupling, we observed a Significant similarity in the organization of WNSs induced by systems sharing the same substrate network but different configurations of initial phases and intrinsic frequencies of oscillators. We reconstruct physical network from the WNS by choosing the links whose weights are higher than a given threshold. We observed an optimal reconstruction just before the onset of global synchronization. Finally, we correlated the topology of the

  13. OKVAR-Boost: a novel boosting algorithm to infer nonlinear dynamics and interactions in gene regulatory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Néhémy; Senbabaoglu, Yasin; Michailidis, George; d'Alché-Buc, Florence

    2013-06-01

    Reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks remains a central challenge in computational systems biology, despite recent advances facilitated by benchmark in silico challenges that have aided in calibrating their performance. A number of approaches using either perturbation (knock-out) or wild-type time-series data have appeared in the literature addressing this problem, with the latter using linear temporal models. Nonlinear dynamical models are particularly appropriate for this inference task, given the generation mechanism of the time-series data. In this study, we introduce a novel nonlinear autoregressive model based on operator-valued kernels that simultaneously learns the model parameters, as well as the network structure. A flexible boosting algorithm (OKVAR-Boost) that shares features from L2-boosting and randomization-based algorithms is developed to perform the tasks of parameter learning and network inference for the proposed model. Specifically, at each boosting iteration, a regularized Operator-valued Kernel-based Vector AutoRegressive model (OKVAR) is trained on a random subnetwork. The final model consists of an ensemble of such models. The empirical estimation of the ensemble model's Jacobian matrix provides an estimation of the network structure. The performance of the proposed algorithm is first evaluated on a number of benchmark datasets from the DREAM3 challenge and then on real datasets related to the In vivo Reverse-Engineering and Modeling Assessment (IRMA) and T-cell networks. The high-quality results obtained strongly indicate that it outperforms existing approaches. The OKVAR-Boost Matlab code is available as the archive: http://amis-group.fr/sourcecode-okvar-boost/OKVARBoost-v1.0.zip. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  14. Inferring cetacean population densities from the absolute dynamic topography of the ocean in a hierarchical Bayesian framework.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario A Pardo

    Full Text Available We inferred the population densities of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus and short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis in the Northeast Pacific Ocean as functions of the water-column's physical structure by implementing hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. This approach allowed us to propagate the uncertainty of the field observations into the inference of species-habitat relationships and to generate spatially explicit population density predictions with reduced effects of sampling heterogeneity. Our hypothesis was that the large-scale spatial distributions of these two cetacean species respond primarily to ecological processes resulting from shoaling and outcropping of the pycnocline in regions of wind-forced upwelling and eddy-like circulation. Physically, these processes affect the thermodynamic balance of the water column, decreasing its volume and thus the height of the absolute dynamic topography (ADT. Biologically, they lead to elevated primary productivity and persistent aggregation of low-trophic-level prey. Unlike other remotely sensed variables, ADT provides information about the structure of the entire water column and it is also routinely measured at high spatial-temporal resolution by satellite altimeters with uniform global coverage. Our models provide spatially explicit population density predictions for both species, even in areas where the pycnocline shoals but does not outcrop (e.g. the Costa Rica Dome and the North Equatorial Countercurrent thermocline ridge. Interannual variations in distribution during El Niño anomalies suggest that the population density of both species decreases dramatically in the Equatorial Cold Tongue and the Costa Rica Dome, and that their distributions retract to particular areas that remain productive, such as the more oceanic waters in the central California Current System, the northern Gulf of California, the North Equatorial Countercurrent thermocline ridge, and the more

  15. Change in tectonic force inferred from basin subsidence: Implications for the dynamical aspects of back-arc rifting in the western Mediterranean

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yamasaki, T.; Stephenson, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    A method has been developed that allows temporal changes in tectonic force during rift basin formation to be inferred from observed tectonic subsidence curves and has been applied to the Gulf of Lions (the Provençal Basin) and the Valencia Trough in order to gain some understanding of the dynamical

  16. Nitrogen dynamics in subtropical fringe and basin mangrove forests inferred from stable isotopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, Carla Roberta Gonçalves; Nardoto, Gabriela Bielefeld; Rochelle, André Luis Casarin; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Oliveira, Rafael Silva

    2017-03-01

    Mangroves exhibit low species richness compared to other tropical forests, but great structural and functional diversity. Aiming to contribute to a better understanding of the functioning of mangrove forests, we investigated nitrogen (N) dynamics in two physiographic types of mangroves (fringe and basin forests) in southeastern Brazil. Because fringe forests are under great influence of tidal flushing we hypothesized that these forests would exhibit higher N cycling rates in sediment and higher N losses to the atmosphere compared to basin forests. We quantified net N mineralization and nitrification rates in sediment and natural abundance of N stable isotopes (δ 15 N) in the sediment-plant-litter system. The fringe forest exhibited higher net N mineralization rates and δ 15 N in the sediment-plant-litter system, but net nitrification rates were similar to those of the basin forest. The results of the present study suggest that fringe forests exhibit higher N availability and N cycling in sediment compared to basin forests.

  17. From birdsong to human speech recognition: bayesian inference on a hierarchy of nonlinear dynamical systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildiz, Izzet B; von Kriegstein, Katharina; Kiebel, Stefan J

    2013-01-01

    Our knowledge about the computational mechanisms underlying human learning and recognition of sound sequences, especially speech, is still very limited. One difficulty in deciphering the exact means by which humans recognize speech is that there are scarce experimental findings at a neuronal, microscopic level. Here, we show that our neuronal-computational understanding of speech learning and recognition may be vastly improved by looking at an animal model, i.e., the songbird, which faces the same challenge as humans: to learn and decode complex auditory input, in an online fashion. Motivated by striking similarities between the human and songbird neural recognition systems at the macroscopic level, we assumed that the human brain uses the same computational principles at a microscopic level and translated a birdsong model into a novel human sound learning and recognition model with an emphasis on speech. We show that the resulting Bayesian model with a hierarchy of nonlinear dynamical systems can learn speech samples such as words rapidly and recognize them robustly, even in adverse conditions. In addition, we show that recognition can be performed even when words are spoken by different speakers and with different accents-an everyday situation in which current state-of-the-art speech recognition models often fail. The model can also be used to qualitatively explain behavioral data on human speech learning and derive predictions for future experiments.

  18. From birdsong to human speech recognition: bayesian inference on a hierarchy of nonlinear dynamical systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izzet B Yildiz

    Full Text Available Our knowledge about the computational mechanisms underlying human learning and recognition of sound sequences, especially speech, is still very limited. One difficulty in deciphering the exact means by which humans recognize speech is that there are scarce experimental findings at a neuronal, microscopic level. Here, we show that our neuronal-computational understanding of speech learning and recognition may be vastly improved by looking at an animal model, i.e., the songbird, which faces the same challenge as humans: to learn and decode complex auditory input, in an online fashion. Motivated by striking similarities between the human and songbird neural recognition systems at the macroscopic level, we assumed that the human brain uses the same computational principles at a microscopic level and translated a birdsong model into a novel human sound learning and recognition model with an emphasis on speech. We show that the resulting Bayesian model with a hierarchy of nonlinear dynamical systems can learn speech samples such as words rapidly and recognize them robustly, even in adverse conditions. In addition, we show that recognition can be performed even when words are spoken by different speakers and with different accents-an everyday situation in which current state-of-the-art speech recognition models often fail. The model can also be used to qualitatively explain behavioral data on human speech learning and derive predictions for future experiments.

  19. A synthesis of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGregor, Joseph A; Fahnestock, Mark A; Catania, Ginny A; Aschwanden, Andy; Clow, Gary D; Colgan, William T; Gogineni, S Prasad; Morlighem, Mathieu; Nowicki, Sophie M J; Paden, John D; Price, Stephen F; Seroussi, Hélène

    2016-08-10

    The basal thermal state of an ice sheet (frozen or thawed) is an important control upon its evolution, dynamics and response to external forcings. However, this state can only be observed directly within sparse boreholes or inferred conclusively from the presence of subglacial lakes. Here we synthesize spatially extensive inferences of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet to better constrain this state. Existing inferences include outputs from the eight thermomechanical ice-flow models included in the SeaRISE effort. New remote-sensing inferences of the basal thermal state are derived from Holocene radiostratigraphy, modern surface velocity and MODIS imagery. Both thermomechanical modeling and remote inferences generally agree that the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream and large portions of the southwestern ice-drainage systems are thawed at the bed, whereas the bed beneath the central ice divides, particularly their west-facing slopes, is frozen. Elsewhere, there is poor agreement regarding the basal thermal state. Both models and remote inferences rarely represent the borehole-observed basal thermal state accurately near NorthGRIP and DYE-3. This synthesis identifies a large portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet (about one third by area) where additional observations would most improve knowledge of its overall basal thermal state.

  20. A synthesis of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGregor, Joseph A; Fahnestock, Mark A; Catania, Ginny A; Aschwanden, Andy; Clow, Gary D.; Colgan, William T.; Gogineni, Prasad S.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Nowicki, Sophie M .J.; Paden, John D; Price, Stephen F.; Seroussi, Helene

    2016-01-01

    The basal thermal state of an ice sheet (frozen or thawed) is an important control upon its evolution, dynamics and response to external forcings. However, this state can only be observed directly within sparse boreholes or inferred conclusively from the presence of subglacial lakes. Here we synthesize spatially extensive inferences of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet to better constrain this state. Existing inferences include outputs from the eight thermomechanical ice-flow models included in the SeaRISE effort. New remote-sensing inferences of the basal thermal state are derived from Holocene radiostratigraphy, modern surface velocity and MODIS imagery. Both thermomechanical modeling and remote inferences generally agree that the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream and large portions of the southwestern ice-drainage systems are thawed at the bed, whereas the bed beneath the central ice divides, particularly their west-facing slopes, is frozen. Elsewhere, there is poor agreement regarding the basal thermal state. Both models and remote inferences rarely represent the borehole-observed basal thermal state accurately near NorthGRIP and DYE-3. This synthesis identifies a large portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet (about one third by area) where additional observations would most improve knowledge of its overall basal thermal state.

  1. Magnetotelluric survey of Ischia resurgent caldera (Southern Italy): inference for volcano-tectonics and dynamic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlino, S.; Di Giuseppe, M. G.; Troiano, A.

    2017-12-01

    The island of Ischia (located in the Bay of Naples) represents a peculiar case of well-exposed caldera that has experienced a large (>800m) and rapid resurgence, until recent time. It gives us the possibility for a better understanding of caldera resurgence process, by integrating the available geological information with new geophysical data of the deeper structures associated to the resurgence. To this aim, a magnetotelluric survey of the island, has been performed along two main profiles of the central-western sector, obtaining the first electrical resistivity map down to a depth of 3km. The resurgence is tough to be associated to a shallow magma intrusion, which also produced a vigorous hot fluids circulation with high geothermal gradients (>150°Ckm-1) in the southern and western sector. The interpretation of resistivity variations allow us to recognize the main volcano-tectonic features of central-western part of the island, along the two profiles, such as the presence of a possible very shallow magmatic intrusion to a depth of about 1km, the tectonic structures bordering the resurgent area and the occurrence of large thermal anomaly of the western sector. All these data are fundamental for the assessment of volcano-dynamic of the island and associated hazard. Furthermore, this study show a not common example of a large resurgence that is likely generated by a laccolith intrusion. This process is generally associated to the arrival of fresh magma into the system that, in turn, may imply imminent eruption and high volcanic hazard.

  2. Soil carbon dynamics inferred from carbon isotope compositions of soil organic matter and soil respiration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koarashi, Jun; Asano, Tomohiro; Iida, Takao; Moriizumi, Jun

    2004-01-01

    To better understand 14 C cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, 14 C abundances were evaluated for fractionated soil organic matter (SOM) and soil respiration in an urban forest. In 2001 soil profile, Δ 14 C values of litter and bulk SOM increased rapidly from litter surface (62.7 per mille) to uppermost mineral soil layer (244.9 per mille), and then decreased sharply to 6 cm depth of mineral soil (125.0 per mille). Carbon enriched in 14 C by atmospheric nuclear weapons testing had penetrated to at least 16 cm depth of mineral soil. The average Δ 14 C in atmospheric CO 2 was 58.8 per mille in August 2001, suggesting recent carbon input to the topmost litter layer. Although a similar depth distribution was observed for Δ 14 C values of residual SOM after acid hydrolysis, the Δ 14 C values were slightly lower than those in bulk SOM. This indicates input of 'bomb' C into this organic fraction and higher 14 C abundance in acid-soluble SOM. The most of CO 2 may be derived from the microbial decomposition of the acid-soluble, or labile, SOM. Therefore, the labile SOM may become most influential pool for soil carbon cycling. In contrast, carbon in base-insoluble SOM remained considerably low in 14 C abundance at all depths, suggesting no or little incorporation of 'bomb' C to this fraction. Values of Δ 14 C in soil respiration ranged from 91.9 to 146.4 per mille in August 2001, showing a significant contribution from decomposition of SOM fixed over past 2-40 years. These results indicate that the use of bulk SOM as a representative of soil carbon pool would lead to severe misunderstand of the soil C dynamics on decadal and shorter time scales. (author)

  3. Inferring epidemiological dynamics of infectious diseases using Tajima's D statistic on nucleotide sequences of pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kiyeon; Omori, Ryosuke; Ito, Kimihito

    2017-12-01

    The estimation of the basic reproduction number is essential to understand epidemic dynamics, and time series data of infected individuals are usually used for the estimation. However, such data are not always available. Methods to estimate the basic reproduction number using genealogy constructed from nucleotide sequences of pathogens have been proposed so far. Here, we propose a new method to estimate epidemiological parameters of outbreaks using the time series change of Tajima's D statistic on the nucleotide sequences of pathogens. To relate the time evolution of Tajima's D to the number of infected individuals, we constructed a parsimonious mathematical model describing both the transmission process of pathogens among hosts and the evolutionary process of the pathogens. As a case study we applied this method to the field data of nucleotide sequences of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 viruses collected in Argentina. The Tajima's D-based method estimated basic reproduction number to be 1.55 with 95% highest posterior density (HPD) between 1.31 and 2.05, and the date of epidemic peak to be 10th July with 95% HPD between 22nd June and 9th August. The estimated basic reproduction number was consistent with estimation by birth-death skyline plot and estimation using the time series of the number of infected individuals. These results suggested that Tajima's D statistic on nucleotide sequences of pathogens could be useful to estimate epidemiological parameters of outbreaks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Absorption of calcium ions on oxidized graphene sheets and study its dynamic behavior by kinetic and isothermal models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Fathy

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Sorption of calcium ion from the hard underground water using novel oxidized graphene (GO sheets was studied in this paper. Physicochemical properties and microstructure of graphene sheets were investigated using Raman spectrometer, thermogravimetry analyzer, transmission electron microscope, scanning electron microscope. The kinetics adsorption of calcium on graphene oxide sheets was examined using Lagergren first and second orders. The results show that the Lagergren second-order was the best-fit model that suggests the conception process of calcium ion adsorption on the Go sheets. For isothermal studies, the Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm models were used at temperatures ranging between 283 and 313 K. Thermodynamic parameters resolved at 283, 298 and 313 K indicating that the GO adsorption was exothermic spontaneous process. Finally, the graphene sheets show high partiality toward calcium particles and it will be useful in softening and treatment of hard water.

  5. Decontamination sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirose, Emiko; Kanesaki, Ken.

    1995-01-01

    The decontamination sheet of the present invention is formed by applying an adhesive on one surface of a polymer sheet and releasably appending a plurality of curing sheets. In addition, perforated lines are formed on the sheet, and a decontaminating agent is incorporated in the adhesive. This can reduce the number of curing operation steps when a plurality steps of operations for radiation decontamination equipments are performed, and further, the amount of wastes of the cured sheets, and operator's exposure are reduced, as well as an efficiency of the curing operation can be improved, and propagation of contamination can be prevented. (T.M.)

  6. Inference of chromosomal inversion dynamics from Pool-Seq data in natural and laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapun, Martin; van Schalkwyk, Hester; McAllister, Bryant; Flatt, Thomas; Schlötterer, Christian

    2014-04-01

    Sequencing of pools of individuals (Pool-Seq) represents a reliable and cost-effective approach for estimating genome-wide SNP and transposable element insertion frequencies. However, Pool-Seq does not provide direct information on haplotypes so that, for example, obtaining inversion frequencies has not been possible until now. Here, we have developed a new set of diagnostic marker SNPs for seven cosmopolitan inversions in Drosophila melanogaster that can be used to infer inversion frequencies from Pool-Seq data. We applied our novel marker set to Pool-Seq data from an experimental evolution study and from North American and Australian latitudinal clines. In the experimental evolution data, we find evidence that positive selection has driven the frequencies of In(3R)C and In(3R)Mo to increase over time. In the clinal data, we confirm the existence of frequency clines for In(2L)t, In(3L)P and In(3R)Payne in both North America and Australia and detect a previously unknown latitudinal cline for In(3R)Mo in North America. The inversion markers developed here provide a versatile and robust tool for characterizing inversion frequencies and their dynamics in Pool-Seq data from diverse D. melanogaster populations. © 2013 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. dynGENIE3: dynamical GENIE3 for the inference of gene networks from time series expression data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huynh-Thu, Vân Anh; Geurts, Pierre

    2018-02-21

    The elucidation of gene regulatory networks is one of the major challenges of systems biology. Measurements about genes that are exploited by network inference methods are typically available either in the form of steady-state expression vectors or time series expression data. In our previous work, we proposed the GENIE3 method that exploits variable importance scores derived from Random forests to identify the regulators of each target gene. This method provided state-of-the-art performance on several benchmark datasets, but it could however not specifically be applied to time series expression data. We propose here an adaptation of the GENIE3 method, called dynamical GENIE3 (dynGENIE3), for handling both time series and steady-state expression data. The proposed method is evaluated extensively on the artificial DREAM4 benchmarks and on three real time series expression datasets. Although dynGENIE3 does not systematically yield the best performance on each and every network, it is competitive with diverse methods from the literature, while preserving the main advantages of GENIE3 in terms of scalability.

  8. OSCILLATION OF CURRENT SHEETS IN THE WAKE OF A FLUX ROPE ERUPTION OBSERVED BY THE SOLAR DYNAMICS OBSERVATORY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, L. P.; Zhang, J.; Su, J. T. [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100012 Beijing (China); Liu, Y. [Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, 100875 Beijing (China)

    2016-10-01

    An erupting flux rope (FR) draws its overlying coronal loops upward, causing a coronal mass ejection. The legs of the overlying loops with opposite polarities are driven together. Current sheets (CSs) form, and magnetic reconnection, producing underneath flare arcades, occurs in the CSs. Employing Solar Dynamic Observatory /Atmospheric Imaging Assembly images, we study a FR eruption on 2015 April 23, and for the first time report the oscillation of CSs underneath the erupting FR. The FR is observed in all AIA extreme-ultraviolet passbands, indicating that it has both hot and warm components. Several bright CSs, connecting the erupting FR and the underneath flare arcades, are observed only in hotter AIA channels, e.g., 131 and 94 Å. Using the differential emission measure (EM) analysis, we find that both the temperature and the EM of CSs temporally increase rapidly, reach the peaks, and then decrease slowly. A significant delay between the increases of the temperature and the EM is detected. The temperature, EM, and density spatially decrease along the CSs with increasing heights. For a well-developed CS, the temperature (EM) decreases from 9.6 MK (8 × 10{sup 28} cm{sup −5}) to 6.2 MK (5 × 10{sup 27} cm{sup −5}) in 52 Mm. Along the CSs, dark supra-arcade downflows (SADs) are observed, and one of them separates a CS into two. While flowing sunward, the speeds of the SADs decrease. The CSs oscillate with a period of 11 minutes, an amplitude of 1.5 Mm, and a phase speed of 200 ± 30 km s{sup −1}. One of the oscillations lasts for more than 2 hr. These oscillations represent fast-propagating magnetoacoustic kink waves.

  9. Reconstructing the post-LGM decay of the Eurasian Ice Sheets with Ice Sheet Models; data-model comparison and focus on the Storfjorden (Svalbard) ice stream dynamics history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrini, Michele; Kirchner, Nina; Colleoni, Florence; Camerlenghi, Angelo; Rebesco, Michele; Lucchi, Renata G.; Forte, Emanuele; Colucci, Renato R.

    2017-04-01

    The challenge of reconstructing palaeo-ice sheets past growth and decay represent a critical task to better understand mechanisms of present and future global climate change. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the subsequent deglaciation until Pre-Industrial time (PI) represent an excellent testing ground for numerical Ice Sheet Models (ISMs), due to the abundant data available that can be used in an ISM as boundary conditions, forcings or constraints to test the ISMs results. In our study, we simulate with ISMs the post-LGM decay of the Eurasian Ice Sheets, with a focus on the marine-based Svalbard-Barents Sea-Kara Sea Ice Sheet. In particular, we aim to reconstruct the Storfjorden ice stream dynamics history by comparing the model results with the marine geological data (MSGLs, GZWs, sediment cores analysis) available from the area, e.g., Pedrosa et al. 2011, Rebesco et al. 2011, 2013, Lucchi et al. 2013. Two hybrid SIA/SSA ISMs are employed, GRISLI, Ritz et al. 2001, and PSU, Pollard&DeConto 2012. These models differ mainly in the complexity with which grounding line migration is treated. Climate forcing is interpolated by means of climate indexes between LGM and PI climate. Regional climate indexes are constructed based on the non-accelerated deglaciation transient experiment carried out with CCSM3, Liu et al. 2009. Indexes representative of the climate evolution over Siberia, Svalbard and Scandinavia are employed. The impact of such refined representation as opposed to the common use of the NGRIP δ18O index for transient experiments is analysed. In this study, the ice-ocean interaction is crucial to reconstruct the Storfjorden ice stream dynamics history. To investigate the sensitivity of the ice shelf/stream retreat to ocean temperature, we allow for a space-time variation of basal melting under the ice shelves by testing two-equations implementations based on Martin et al. 2011 forced with simulated ocean temperature and salinity from the TraCE-21ka coupled

  10. Kinetic Analysis of Dynamic Positron Emission Tomography Data using Open-Source Image Processing and Statistical Inference Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawe, David; Hernández Fernández, Francisco R; O'Suilleabháin, Liam; Huang, Jian; Wolsztynski, Eric; O'Sullivan, Finbarr

    2012-05-01

    In dynamic mode, positron emission tomography (PET) can be used to track the evolution of injected radio-labelled molecules in living tissue. This is a powerful diagnostic imaging technique that provides a unique opportunity to probe the status of healthy and pathological tissue by examining how it processes substrates. The spatial aspect of PET is well established in the computational statistics literature. This article focuses on its temporal aspect. The interpretation of PET time-course data is complicated because the measured signal is a combination of vascular delivery and tissue retention effects. If the arterial time-course is known, the tissue time-course can typically be expressed in terms of a linear convolution between the arterial time-course and the tissue residue. In statistical terms, the residue function is essentially a survival function - a familiar life-time data construct. Kinetic analysis of PET data is concerned with estimation of the residue and associated functionals such as flow, flux, volume of distribution and transit time summaries. This review emphasises a nonparametric approach to the estimation of the residue based on a piecewise linear form. Rapid implementation of this by quadratic programming is described. The approach provides a reference for statistical assessment of widely used one- and two-compartmental model forms. We illustrate the method with data from two of the most well-established PET radiotracers, (15)O-H(2)O and (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose, used for assessment of blood perfusion and glucose metabolism respectively. The presentation illustrates the use of two open-source tools, AMIDE and R, for PET scan manipulation and model inference.

  11. Process Inference from High Frequency Temporal Variations in Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) Dynamics Across Nested Spatial Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunaley, C.; Tetzlaff, D.; Lessels, J. S.; Soulsby, C.

    2014-12-01

    In order to understand aquatic ecosystem functioning it is critical to understand the processes that control the spatial and temporal variations in DOC. DOC concentrations are highly dynamic, however, our understanding at short, high frequency timescales is still limited. Optical sensors which act as a proxy for DOC provide the opportunity to investigate near-continuous DOC variations in order to understand the hydrological and biogeochemical processes that control concentrations at short temporal scales. Here we present inferred 15 minute stream water DOC data for a 12 month period at three nested scales (1km2, 3km2 and 31km2) for the Bruntland Burn, a headwater catchment in NE Scotland. High frequency data were measured using FDOM and CDOM probes which work by measuring the fluorescent component and coloured component, respectively, of DOC when exposed to ultraviolet light. Both FDOM and CDOM were strongly correlated (r2 >0.8) with DOC allowing high frequency estimations. Results show the close coupling of DOC with discharge throughout the sampling period at all three spatial scales. However, analysis at the event scale highlights anticlockwise hysteresis relationships between DOC and discharge due to the delay in DOC being flushed from the increasingly large areas of peaty soils as saturation zones expand and increase hydrological connectivity. Lag times vary between events dependent on antecedent conditions. During a 10 year drought period in late summer 2013 it was apparent that very small changes in discharge on a 15 minute timescale result in high increases in DOC. This suggests transport limitation during this period where DOC builds up in the soil and is not flushed regularly, therefore any subsequent increase in discharge results in large DOC peaks. The high frequency sensors also reveal diurnal variability during summer months related to the photo-oxidation, evaporative and biological influences of DOC during the day. This relationship is less

  12. Inferring internal properties of Earth's core dynamics and their evolution from surface observations and a numerical geodynamo model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Aubert

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decades, direct three-dimensional numerical modelling has been successfully used to reproduce the main features of the geodynamo. Here we report on efforts to solve the associated inverse problem, aiming at inferring the underlying properties of the system from the sole knowledge of surface observations and the first principle dynamical equations describing the convective dynamo. To this end we rely on twin experiments. A reference model time sequence is first produced and used to generate synthetic data, restricted here to the large-scale component of the magnetic field and its rate of change at the outer boundary. Starting from a different initial condition, a second sequence is next run and attempts are made to recover the internal magnetic, velocity and buoyancy anomaly fields from the sparse surficial data. In order to reduce the vast underdetermination of this problem, we use stochastic inversion, a linear estimation method determining the most likely internal state compatible with the observations and some prior knowledge, and we also implement a sequential evolution algorithm in order to invert time-dependent surface observations. The prior is the multivariate statistics of the numerical model, which are directly computed from a large number of snapshots stored during a preliminary direct run. The statistics display strong correlation between different harmonic degrees of the surface observations and internal fields, provided they share the same harmonic order, a natural consequence of the linear coupling of the governing dynamical equations and of the leading influence of the Coriolis force. Synthetic experiments performed with a weakly nonlinear model yield an excellent quantitative retrieval of the internal structure. In contrast, the use of a strongly nonlinear (and more realistic model results in less accurate static estimations, which in turn fail to constrain the unobserved small scales in the time integration of the

  13. Global ice sheet modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L.

    1994-05-01

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed

  14. A late glacial record of ice-sheet dynamics and melt supply recovered in the sediments of IODP Expedition 347 in the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passchier, Sandra; Jensen, Jørn Bo; Kenzler, Michael; Johnson, Sean; Andrén, Thomas; Barker Jørgensen, Bo

    2015-04-01

    Modern observations of increased surface ablation, meltwater routing to the bed, and increases in glacial speeds point to feedbacks between ice-sheet dynamics, melt supply, and subglacial discharge. Paleorecords have the potential to explore the decadal to centennial variability of these systems, but until recently such records were short and discontinuous in ice-proximal settings and underutilized for this specific purpose. The Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 347 in the Baltic Sea recovered annually laminated sediments that document the dynamics of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet. Hydraulic piston cores recovered from Sites M0060, M0063, M0064, and M0065 allow us to reconstruct a nearly complete record of ca. 6000 years in ice retreat history at annual to decadal resolution between ca. 17 and 11ka. The late glacial successions of these four IODP drillsites comprise of a till or proglacial fluvioglacial sediment overlain by variable thicknesses of well-laminated deglacial successions within several high-recovery holes. As the Scandinavian Ice Sheet retreated from the western Baltic Sea, and to the North, the ice-sheet's grounding line migrated across the four sites and deposited overlapping sections of high-resolution ice-proximal to ice-distal successions. Laser particle size results from Sites M0060 and M0063, and inspection of line-scan images, show shifts in sedimentary facies and lithologies that were not recognized during initial visual core description. For example, at Site M0060 in the Kattegat, ice-rafting fluxes in silty clays decrease upward and are negligible in the overlying varved succession. These characteristics are interpreted as ice retreat within a calving bay environment from ca. 17ka onward, followed by distal glacial marine deposition from sediment plumes governed by meltwater discharge. Moreover, at Site M0063 in the Baltic Sea, laser particle size distributions record an abrupt shift from interlaminated clayey silt to laminated clay

  15. Juvenile magma recognition and eruptive dynamics inferred from the analysis of ash time series: The 2015 reawakening of Cotopaxi volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaunt, H. Elizabeth; Bernard, Benjamin; Hidalgo, Silvana; Proano, Antonio; Wright, Heather M.; Mothes, Patricia; Criollo, Evelyn; Kueppers, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future activity and performing hazard assessments during the reactivation of volcanoes remain great challenges for the volcanological community. On August 14, 2015 Cotopaxi volcano erupted for the first time in 73 years after approximately four months of precursory activity, which included an increase in seismicity, gas emissions, and minor ground deformation. Here we discuss the use of near real-time petrological monitoring of ash samples as a complementary aid to geophysical monitoring, in order to infer eruption dynamics and evaluate possible future eruptive activity at Cotopaxi. Twenty ash samples were collected between August 14 and November 23, 2015 from a monitoring site on the west flank of the volcano. These samples contain a range of grain types that we classified as: hydrothermal/altered, lithic, juvenile, and free crystals. The relative proportions of theses grains evolved as the eruption progressed, with increasing amounts of juvenile material and a decrease in hydrothermally altered material. In samples from the initial explosion, juvenile grains are glassy, microlite-poor and contain hydrothermal minerals (opal and alunite). The rising magma came in contact with the hydrothermal system under confinement, causing hydro-magmatic explosions that cleared the upper part of the plumbing system. Subsequently, the magmatic column produced a thermal aureole in the conduit and dried out the hydrothermal system, allowing for dry eruptions. Magma ascent rates were low enough to allow for efficient outgassing and microlite growth. Constant supply of magma from below caused quasi-continuous disruption of the uppermost magma volume through a combination of shear-deformation and gas expansion. The combination of increasing crystallinity of juvenile grains, and high measured SO2 flux indicate decreasing integrated magma ascent rates and clearing of the hydrothermal system along transport pathways in a system open to gas loss. The near real

  16. Estimates of water source contributions in a dynamic urban water supply system inferred via a Bayesian stable isotope mixing model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jameel, M. Y.; Brewer, S.; Fiorella, R.; Tipple, B. J.; Bowen, G. J.; Terry, S.

    2017-12-01

    Public water supply systems (PWSS) are complex distribution systems and critical infrastructure, making them vulnerable to physical disruption and contamination. Exploring the susceptibility of PWSS to such perturbations requires detailed knowledge of the supply system structure and operation. Although the physical structure of supply systems (i.e., pipeline connection) is usually well documented for developed cities, the actual flow patterns of water in these systems are typically unknown or estimated based on hydrodynamic models with limited observational validation. Here, we present a novel method for mapping the flow structure of water in a large, complex PWSS, building upon recent work highlighting the potential of stable isotopes of water (SIW) to document water management practices within complex PWSS. We sampled a major water distribution system of the Salt Lake Valley, Utah, measuring SIW of water sources, treatment facilities, and numerous sites within in the supply system. We then developed a hierarchical Bayesian (HB) isotope mixing model to quantify the proportion of water supplied by different sources at sites within the supply system. Known production volumes and spatial distance effects were used to define the prior probabilities for each source; however, we did not include other physical information about the supply system. Our results were in general agreement with those obtained by hydrodynamic models and provide quantitative estimates of contributions of different water sources to a given site along with robust estimates of uncertainty. Secondary properties of the supply system, such as regions of "static" and "dynamic" source (e.g., regions supplied dominantly by one source vs. those experiencing active mixing between multiple sources), can be inferred from the results. The isotope-based HB isotope mixing model offers a new investigative technique for analyzing PWSS and documenting aspects of supply system structure and operation that are

  17. Modelling the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and neighbouring ice caps : A dynamical and statistical downscaling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noël, B.P.Y.

    2018-01-01

    The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is the world’s second largest ice mass, storing about one tenth of the Earth’s freshwater. If totally melted, global sea level would rise by 7.4 m, affecting low-lying regions worldwide. Since the mid-1990s, increased atmospheric and oceanic temperatures have

  18. Entropic Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caticha, Ariel

    2011-03-01

    In this tutorial we review the essential arguments behing entropic inference. We focus on the epistemological notion of information and its relation to the Bayesian beliefs of rational agents. The problem of updating from a prior to a posterior probability distribution is tackled through an eliminative induction process that singles out the logarithmic relative entropy as the unique tool for inference. The resulting method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME), includes as special cases both MaxEnt and Bayes' rule, and therefore unifies the two themes of these workshops—the Maximum Entropy and the Bayesian methods—into a single general inference scheme.

  19. Distributional Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroese, A.H.; van der Meulen, E.A.; Poortema, Klaas; Schaafsma, W.

    1995-01-01

    The making of statistical inferences in distributional form is conceptionally complicated because the epistemic 'probabilities' assigned are mixtures of fact and fiction. In this respect they are essentially different from 'physical' or 'frequency-theoretic' probabilities. The distributional form is

  20. Entropic Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Caticha, Ariel

    2010-01-01

    In this tutorial we review the essential arguments behing entropic inference. We focus on the epistemological notion of information and its relation to the Bayesian beliefs of rational agents. The problem of updating from a prior to a posterior probability distribution is tackled through an eliminative induction process that singles out the logarithmic relative entropy as the unique tool for inference. The resulting method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME), includes as special cases both MaxEn...

  1. Phased occupation and retreat of the last British-Irish Ice Sheet in the southern North Sea; geomorphic and seismostratigraphic evidence of a dynamic ice lobe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dove, Dayton; Evans, David J. A.; Lee, Jonathan R.; Roberts, David H.; Tappin, David R.; Mellett, Claire L.; Long, David; Callard, S. Louise

    2017-05-01

    Along the terrestrial margin of the southern North Sea, previous studies of the MIS 2 glaciation impacting eastern Britain have played a significant role in the development of principles relating to ice sheet dynamics (e.g. deformable beds), and the practice of reconstructing the style, timing, and spatial configuration of palaeo-ice sheets. These detailed terrestrially-based findings have however relied on observations made from only the outer edges of the former ice mass, as the North Sea Lobe (NSL) of the British-Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) occupied an area that is now almost entirely submarine (c.21-15 ka). Compounded by the fact that marine-acquired data have been primarily of insufficient quality and density, the configuration and behaviour of the last BIIS in the southern North Sea remains surprisingly poorly constrained. This paper presents analysis of a new, integrated set of extensive seabed geomorphological and seismo-stratigraphic observations that both advances the principles developed previously onshore (e.g. multiple advance and retreat cycles), and provides a more detailed and accurate reconstruction of the BIIS at its southern-most extent in the North Sea. A new bathymetry compilation of the region reveals a series of broad sedimentary wedges and associated moraines that represent several terminal positions of the NSL. These former still-stand ice margins (1-4) are also found to relate to newly-identified architectural patterns (shallow stacked sedimentary wedges) in the region's seismic stratigraphy (previously mapped singularly as the Bolders Bank Formation). With ground-truthing constraint provided by sediment cores, these wedges are interpreted as sub-marginal till wedges, formed by complex subglacial accretionary processes that resulted in till thickening towards the former ice-sheet margins. The newly sub-divided shallow seismic stratigraphy (at least five units) also provides an indication of the relative event chronology of the NSL. While there

  2. Perceptual inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggelopoulos, Nikolaos C

    2015-08-01

    Perceptual inference refers to the ability to infer sensory stimuli from predictions that result from internal neural representations built through prior experience. Methods of Bayesian statistical inference and decision theory model cognition adequately by using error sensing either in guiding action or in "generative" models that predict the sensory information. In this framework, perception can be seen as a process qualitatively distinct from sensation, a process of information evaluation using previously acquired and stored representations (memories) that is guided by sensory feedback. The stored representations can be utilised as internal models of sensory stimuli enabling long term associations, for example in operant conditioning. Evidence for perceptual inference is contributed by such phenomena as the cortical co-localisation of object perception with object memory, the response invariance in the responses of some neurons to variations in the stimulus, as well as from situations in which perception can be dissociated from sensation. In the context of perceptual inference, sensory areas of the cerebral cortex that have been facilitated by a priming signal may be regarded as comparators in a closed feedback loop, similar to the better known motor reflexes in the sensorimotor system. The adult cerebral cortex can be regarded as similar to a servomechanism, in using sensory feedback to correct internal models, producing predictions of the outside world on the basis of past experience. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Luminescence dating of paleolake deltas and glacial deposits in Garwood Valley, Antarctica: Implications for climate, Ross ice sheet dynamics, and paleolake duration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Joseph S.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Fountain, Andrew G.; O'Connor, Jim E.

    2017-01-01

    The formation of perched deltas and other lacustrine deposits in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is widely considered to be evidence of valley-filling lakes dammed by the grounded Ross Sea ice sheet during the local Last Glacial Maximum, with lake drainage interpreted as a record of grounding line retreat. We used luminescence dating to determine the age of paleolake deltas and glacial tills in Garwood Valley, a coastal dry valley that opens to the Ross Sea. Luminescence ages are stratigraphically consistent with radiocarbon results from algal mats within the same delta deposits but suggest radiocarbon dates from lacustrine carbonates may overestimate deposit ages by thousands of years. Results suggest that late Holocene delta deposition into paleolake Howard in Garwood Valley persisted until ca. 3.5 ka. This is significantly younger than the date when grounded ice is thought to have retreated from the Ross Sea. Our evidence suggests that the local, stranded ice-cored till topography in Garwood Valley, rather than regional ice-sheet dynamics, may have controlled lake levels for some McMurdo Dry Valleys paleolakes. Age control from the supraglacial Ross Sea drift suggests grounding and up-valley advance of the Ross Sea ice sheet into Garwood valley during marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 4 (71–78 ka) and the local Last Glacial Maximum (9–10 ka). This work demonstrates the power of combining luminescence dating with existing radiocarbon data sets to improve understanding of the relationships among paleolake formation, glacial position, and stream discharge in response to climate change.

  4. SMALL-SCALE MAGNETIC ISLANDS IN THE SOLAR WIND AND THEIR ROLE IN PARTICLE ACCELERATION. I. DYNAMICS OF MAGNETIC ISLANDS NEAR THE HELIOSPHERIC CURRENT SHEET

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khabarova, O. [Heliophysical Laboratory, Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radiowave Propagation RAS (IZMIRAN), Troitsk, Moscow 142190 (Russian Federation); Zank, G. P.; Li, G.; Roux, J. A. le; Webb, G. M.; Dosch, A. [Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research (CSPAR), University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35805 (United States); Malandraki, O. E. [IAASARS, National Observatory of Athens, GR-15236 Penteli (Greece)

    2015-08-01

    Increases of ion fluxes in the keV–MeV range are sometimes observed near the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during periods when other sources are absent. These resemble solar energetic particle events, but the events are weaker and apparently local. Conventional explanations based on either shock acceleration of charged particles or particle acceleration due to magnetic reconnection at interplanetary current sheets (CSs) are not persuasive. We suggest instead that recurrent magnetic reconnection occurs at the HCS and smaller CSs in the solar wind, a consequence of which is particle energization by the dynamically evolving secondary CSs and magnetic islands. The effectiveness of the trapping and acceleration process associated with magnetic islands depends in part on the topology of the HCS. We show that the HCS possesses ripples superimposed on the large-scale flat or wavy structure. We conjecture that the ripples can efficiently confine plasma and provide tokamak-like conditions that are favorable for the appearance of small-scale magnetic islands that merge and/or contract. Particles trapped in the vicinity of merging islands and experiencing multiple small-scale reconnection events are accelerated by the induced electric field and experience first-order Fermi acceleration in contracting magnetic islands according to the transport theory of Zank et al. We present multi-spacecraft observations of magnetic island merging and particle energization in the absence of other sources, providing support for theory and simulations that show particle energization by reconnection related processes of magnetic island merging and contraction.

  5. Irish Ice Sheet dynamics during deglaciation of the central Irish Midlands: Evidence of ice streaming and surging from airborne LiDAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaney, Catherine A.; McCarron, Stephen; Davis, Stephen

    2018-04-01

    High resolution digital terrain models (DTMs) generated from airborne LiDAR data and supplemented by field evidence are used to map glacial landform assemblages dating from the last glaciation (Midlandian glaciation; OI stages 2-3) in the central Irish Midlands. The DTMs reveal previously unrecognised low-amplitude landforms, including crevasse-squeeze ridges and mega-scale glacial lineations overprinted by conduit fills leading to ice-marginal subaqueous deposits. We interpret this landform assemblage as evidence for surging behaviour during ice recession. The data indicate that two separate phases of accelerated ice flow were followed by ice sheet stagnation during overall deglaciation. The second surge event was followed by a subglacial outburst flood, forming an intricate esker and crevasse-fill network. The data provide the first clear evidence that ice flow direction was eastward along the eastern watershed of the Shannon River basin, at odds with previous models, and raise the possibility that an ice stream existed in this area. Our work demonstrates the potential for airborne LiDAR surveys to produce detailed paleoglaciological reconstructions and to enhance our understanding of complex palaeo-ice sheet dynamics.

  6. Transfer and Dynamic Inversion of Coassembled Supramolecular Chirality through 2D-Sheet to Rolled-Up Tubular Structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Heekyoung; Cho, Kang Jin; Seo, Hyowon; Ahn, Junho; Liu, Jinying; Lee, Shim Sung; Kim, Hyungjun; Feng, Chuanliang; Jung, Jong Hwa

    2017-12-13

    Transfer and inversion of supramolecular chirality from chiral calix[4]arene analogs (3D and 3L) with an alanine moiety to an achiral bipyridine derivative (1) with glycine moieties in a coassembled hydrogel are demonstrated. Molecular chirality of 3D and 3L could transfer supramolecular chirality to an achiral bipyridine derivative 1. Moreover, addition of 0.6 equiv of 3D or 3L to 1 induced supramolecular chirality inversion of 1. More interestingly, the 2D-sheet structure of the coassembled hydrogels formed with 0.2 equiv of 3D or 3L changed to a rolled-up tubular structure in the presence of 0.6 equiv of 3D or 3L. The chirality inversion and morphology change are mainly mediated by intermolecular hydrogen-bonding interactions between the achiral and chiral molecules, which might be induced by reorientations of the assembled molecules, confirmed by density functional theory calculations.

  7. Coupled ice sheet - climate simulations of the last glacial inception and last glacial maximum with a model of intermediate complexity that includes a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiquet, Aurélien; Roche, Didier M.

    2017-04-01

    Comprehensive fully coupled ice sheet - climate models allowing for multi-millenia transient simulations are becoming available. They represent powerful tools to investigate ice sheet - climate interactions during the repeated retreats and advances of continental ice sheets of the Pleistocene. However, in such models, most of the time, the spatial resolution of the ice sheet model is one order of magnitude lower than the one of the atmospheric model. As such, orography-induced precipitation is only poorly represented. In this work, we briefly present the most recent improvements of the ice sheet - climate coupling within the model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM. On the one hand, from the native atmospheric resolution (T21), we have included a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture at the ice sheet model resolution (40 km x 40 km). This downscaling accounts for feedbacks of sub-grid precipitation on large scale energy and water budgets. From the sub-grid atmospheric variables, we compute an ice sheet surface mass balance required by the ice sheet model. On the other hand, we also explicitly use oceanic temperatures to compute sub-shelf melting at a given depth. Based on palaeo evidences for rate of change of eustatic sea level, we discuss the capability of our new model to correctly simulate the last glacial inception ( 116 kaBP) and the ice volume of the last glacial maximum ( 21 kaBP). We show that the model performs well in certain areas (e.g. Canadian archipelago) but some model biases are consistent over time periods (e.g. Kara-Barents sector). We explore various model sensitivities (e.g. initial state, vegetation, albedo) and we discuss the importance of the downscaling of precipitation for ice nucleation over elevated area and for the surface mass balance of larger ice sheets.

  8. Inferring Instantaneous, Multivariate and Nonlinear Sensitivities for the Analysis of Feedback Processes in a Dynamical System: Lorenz Model Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aires, Filipe; Rossow, William B.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A new approach is presented for the analysis of feedback processes in a nonlinear dynamical system by observing its variations. The new methodology consists of statistical estimates of the sensitivities between all pairs of variables in the system based on a neural network modeling of the dynamical system. The model can then be used to estimate the instantaneous, multivariate and nonlinear sensitivities, which are shown to be essential for the analysis of the feedbacks processes involved in the dynamical system. The method is described and tested on synthetic data from the low-order Lorenz circulation model where the correct sensitivities can be evaluated analytically.

  9. New constraints on the structure and dynamics of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet from the joint IPY/Ice Bridge ICECAP aerogeophysical project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankenship, D. D.; Young, D. A.; Siegert, M. J.; van Ommen, T. D.; Roberts, J. L.; Wright, A.; Warner, R. C.; Holt, J. W.; Young, N. W.; Le Meur, E.; Legresy, B.; Cavitte, M.; Icecap Team

    2010-12-01

    Ice within marine basins of East Antarctica, and their outlets, represent the ultimate limit on sea level change. The region of East Antarctica between the Ross Sea and Wilkes Land hosts a number of major basin, but has been poorly understood. Long range aerogeophysics from US, Australian and French stations, with significant British and IceBridge support, has, under the banner of the ICECAP project, greatly improved our knowledge of ice thickness, surface elevation, and crustal structure of the Wilkes and Aurora Subglacial Basins, as well as the Totten Glacier, Cook Ice Shelf, and Byrd Glacier. We will discuss the evolution of the Wilkes and Aurora Subglacial Basins, new constraints on the geometry of the major outlet glaciers, as well as our results from surface elevation change measurements over dynamic regions of the ice sheet. We will discuss the implications of our data for the presence of mid Pleistocene ice in central East Antarctica. Future directions for ICECAP will be discussed.

  10. Collisionless current sheet equilibria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neukirch, T.; Wilson, F.; Allanson, O.

    2018-01-01

    Current sheets are important for the structure and dynamics of many plasma systems. In space and astrophysical plasmas they play a crucial role in activity processes, for example by facilitating the release of magnetic energy via processes such as magnetic reconnection. In this contribution we will focus on collisionless plasma systems. A sensible first step in any investigation of physical processes involving current sheets is to find appropriate equilibrium solutions. The theory of collisionless plasma equilibria is well established, but over the past few years there has been a renewed interest in finding equilibrium distribution functions for collisionless current sheets with particular properties, for example for cases where the current density is parallel to the magnetic field (force-free current sheets). This interest is due to a combination of scientific curiosity and potential applications to space and astrophysical plasmas. In this paper we will give an overview of some of the recent developments, discuss their potential applications and address a number of open questions.

  11. Active inference, communication and hermeneutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl J; Frith, Christopher D

    2015-07-01

    Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others--during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions--both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then--in principle--they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Thermo-fluid-dynamics of turbulent boundary layer over a moving continuous flat sheet in a parallel free stream

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afzal, Bushra; Noor Afzal Team; Bushra Afzal Team

    2014-11-01

    The momentum and thermal turbulent boundary layers over a continuous moving sheet subjected to a free stream have been analyzed in two layers (inner wall and outer wake) theory at large Reynolds number. The present work is based on open Reynolds equations of momentum and heat transfer without any closure model say, like eddy viscosity or mixing length etc. The matching of inner and outer layers has been carried out by Izakson-Millikan-Kolmogorov hypothesis. The matching for velocity and temperature profiles yields the logarithmic laws and power laws in overlap region of inner and outer layers, along with friction factor and heat transfer laws. The uniformly valid solution for velocity, Reynolds shear stress, temperature and thermal Reynolds heat flux have been proposed by introducing the outer wake functions due to momentum and thermal boundary layers. The comparison with experimental data for velocity profile, temperature profile, skin friction and heat transfer are presented. In outer non-linear layers, the lowest order momentum and thermal boundary layer equations have also been analyses by using eddy viscosity closure model, and results are compared with experimental data. Retired Professor, Embassy Hotel, Rasal Ganj, Aligarh 202001 India.

  13. Dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet and Icelandic Glaciers in the 20th Century Using Geodetic Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Niels Jákup

    by bedrock geometry. It is revealed that dynamic ice loss recently seen in the southeast and northwest GrIS also occurred in the northwest between 1985 and 1993, highlighting the difficulty of capturing these events in mass balance models. Extending the record back to the LIA, the results show...... that for the past 110 years, the surface mass balance has been decreasing, while the dynamic term has been constant. The spatial pattern of thinning in the 20th century is identical to that of current change, suggesting this pattern will continue in the near future. The mass change of the GrIS in 20th century...

  14. Statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Rohatgi, Vijay K

    2003-01-01

    Unified treatment of probability and statistics examines and analyzes the relationship between the two fields, exploring inferential issues. Numerous problems, examples, and diagrams--some with solutions--plus clear-cut, highlighted summaries of results. Advanced undergraduate to graduate level. Contents: 1. Introduction. 2. Probability Model. 3. Probability Distributions. 4. Introduction to Statistical Inference. 5. More on Mathematical Expectation. 6. Some Discrete Models. 7. Some Continuous Models. 8. Functions of Random Variables and Random Vectors. 9. Large-Sample Theory. 10. General Meth

  15. Analytical solution for static and dynamic analysis of magnetically affected viscoelastic orthotropic double-layered graphene sheets resting on viscoelastic foundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalaei, M. H.; Arani, A. Ghorbanpour

    2018-02-01

    By considering the small scale effect based on the nonlocal Eringen's theory, the static and dynamic analysis of viscoelastic orthotropic double-layered graphene sheets subjected to longitudinal magnetic field and mechanical load is investigated analytically. For this objective, first order shear deformation theory (FSDT) is proposed. The surrounding medium is simulated by visco-Pasternak foundation model in which damping, normal and transverse shear loads are taken into account. The governing equations of motion are obtained via energy method and Hamilton's principle which are then solved analytically by means of Navier's approach and Laplace inversion technique in the space and time domains, respectively. Through various parametric studies, the influences of the nonlocal parameter, structural damping, van der Waals (vdW) interaction, stiffness and damping coefficient of the foundation, magnetic parameter, aspect ratio and length to thickness ratio on the static and dynamic response of the nanoplates are examined. The results depict that when the vdW interaction is considered to be zero, the upper layer deflection reaches a maximum point whereas the lower layer deflection becomes zero. In addition, it is observed that with growing the vdW interaction, the effect of magnetic field on the deflection of the lower layer increases while this effect reduces for the upper layer deflection.

  16. Dynamics of Earthquake Faulting in Subduction Zones: Inference from Pseudotachylytes and Ultracataclasites in an Ancient Accretionary Complex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ujiie

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The fault rocks in ancient accretionary complexes exhumed from seismogenic depths may provide an invaluable opportunity to examine the mechanisms and mechanics of seismic slip in subduction thrusts and splay faults. In order to understand the dynamics of earthquake faulting in subduction zones, we analyzed pseudotachylytes and ultracataclasites from the Shimanto accretionary complex in southwest Japan. doi:10.2204/iodp.sd.s01.21.2007

  17. Research on Formation Mechanism of Dynamic Response and Residual Stress of Sheet Metal Induced by Laser Shock Wave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Aixin; Cao, Yupeng; Wang, Heng; Zhang, Zhengang

    2018-01-01

    In order to reveal the quantitative control of the residual stress on the surface of metal materials, the relevant theoretical and experimental studies were carried out to investigate the dynamic response of metal thin plates and the formation mechanism of residual stress induced by laser shock wave. In this paper, the latest research trends on the surface residual stress of laser shock processing technology were elaborated. The main progress of laser shock wave propagation mechanism and dynamic response, laser shock, and surface residual stress were discussed. It is pointed out that the multi-scale characterization of laser and material, surface residual stress and microstructure change is a new hotspot in laser shock strengthening technology.

  18. Internal cycling, not external loading, decides the nutrient limitation in eutrophic lake: A dynamic model with temporal Bayesian hierarchical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhen; Liu, Yong; Liang, Zhongyao; Wu, Sifeng; Guo, Huaicheng

    2017-06-01

    Lake eutrophication is associated with excessive anthropogenic nutrients (mainly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)) and unobserved internal nutrient cycling. Despite the advances in understanding the role of external loadings, the contribution of internal nutrient cycling is still an open question. A dynamic mass-balance model was developed to simulate and measure the contributions of internal cycling and external loading. It was based on the temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Framework (BHM), where we explored the seasonal patterns in the dynamics of nutrient cycling processes and the limitation of N and P on phytoplankton growth in hyper-eutrophic Lake Dianchi, China. The dynamic patterns of the five state variables (Chla, TP, ammonia, nitrate and organic N) were simulated based on the model. Five parameters (algae growth rate, sediment exchange rate of N and P, nitrification rate and denitrification rate) were estimated based on BHM. The model provided a good fit to observations. Our model results highlighted the role of internal cycling of N and P in Lake Dianchi. The internal cycling processes contributed more than external loading to the N and P changes in the water column. Further insights into the nutrient limitation analysis indicated that the sediment exchange of P determined the P limitation. Allowing for the contribution of denitrification to N removal, N was the more limiting nutrient in most of the time, however, P was the more important nutrient for eutrophication management. For Lake Dianchi, it would not be possible to recover solely by reducing the external watershed nutrient load; the mechanisms of internal cycling should also be considered as an approach to inhibit the release of sediments and to enhance denitrification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Extending remote sensing estimates of Greenland ice sheet melting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heavner, M.; Loveland, R.

    2010-12-01

    The Melt Area Detection Index (MADI), a remote sensing algorithm to discriminate between dry and wet snow, has been previously developed and applied to the western portion of the Greenland ice sheet for the years 2000-2006, using Moderate Resolution Imaging Radiospectrometer (MODIS) data (Chylek et al, 2007). We extend that work both spatially and temporally by taking advantage of newly available data, and developing algorithms that facilitate the sensing of cloud cover and the automated inference of wet snow regions. The automated methods allow the development of a composite melt area data product with 0.25 km^2 spatial resolution and approximately two week temporal resolution. We discuss melt area dynamics that are inferred from this high resolution composite melt area. Chylek, P., M. McCabe, M. K. Dubey, and J. Dozier (2007), Remote sensing of Greenland ice sheet using multispectral near-infrared and visible radiances, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S20, doi:10.1029/2007JD008742.

  20. Holocene fire, vegetation, and climate dynamics inferred from charcoal and pollen record in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wenwei; Zhao, Yan; Qin, Feng

    2017-10-01

    Understanding fire history and its driving mechanisms can provide valuable insights into present fire regime (intensity, severity and frequency), the interplay between vegetation and fire, and trigger of fire activities. Here we reconstruct the Holocene fire history in the Zoige Basin on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, on the basis of sedimentary micro-charcoal record over the last 10.0 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP) and discuss the influences of vegetation and climate on fire dynamics. Our results show that regional fire was active at 10.0-3.3 ka and a significant decrease in fire activity characterized the period after 3.3 ka. The high regional fire frequency at 10.0-3.3 ka is consistent with the forested landscape suggested by high affinity scores of cool mixed forest biome (mainly consisted of spruce), implying that fire dynamics during this period was generally controlled by the variations of arboreal biomass and summer temperature. During 6.3-4.6 ka the prevailing Asian summer monsoon provided increased moisture to this region and thus suppressed fire activities to an extent, despite the availability of abundant biomass. Declined tree biomass after 3.3 ka probably accounted for the decreased fire activities. In addition, two successive fire events at ca. 3.5-3.3 ka were likely responsible for the subsequent abrupt decline of forest components in the landscape.

  1. Continuous Measurements of Canopy-level Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence for Inferring Diurnal and Seasonal Dynamics of Photosynthesis in Crop Fields in the Midwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, G.; Guan, K.; Yang, X.; Bernacchi, C.; DeLucia, E. H.; Cai, Y.; Masters, M. D.; Peng, B.

    2016-12-01

    Plants emitted photons of red and far-red light, called chlorophyll fluorescence, after sunlight absorption for photosynthesis. This solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) is generated simultaneously while plants actively photosynthesize. The link between photosynthesis and SIF resulting from the competition for the same excitation energy has long been investigated and applied for inferring the rate of photosynthesis. Recent development of continuous SIF observational technology is furthering the inferring potential as well as our understandings of fluctuations of SIF and photosynthesis with changes in environmental conditions. To better understand this photosynthesis-SIF link at multiple time scales and their relationships with environmental drivers, we deployed two newly developed tower-based SIF systems (FluoSpec) in a corn (Zea mays L., C4 plant) field and a soybean (Glycine max L., C3 plant) field at University of Illinois Energy Farm and conducted continuous near-surface SIF measurements at canopy scale from mid-growing season of 2016. Eddy covariance flux towers were installed in parallel at both sites for canopy-scale gas exchange measurements. Relationship between SIF and flux tower photosynthesis will be analyzed to derive the empirical models for photosynthesis retrieval from SIF signals. Preliminary results indicate that canopy SIF can reflect diurnal and seasonal dynamics of photosynthesis. Mechanistic analysis on SIF fluctuations and responses to environmental variations will be conducted as well for a closer look at mechanism of photosynthetic responses. Corn and soybean SIF and photosynthesis-SIF relationship will be compared to investigate the difference between C4 and C3 plants.

  2. A dynamic climate and ecosystem state during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: inferences from dinoflagellate cyst assemblages on the New Jersey Shelf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sluijs

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Late Paleocene and Early Eocene climates and ecosystems underwent significant change during several transient global warming phases, associated with rapidly increasing atmospheric carbon concentrations, of which the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~55.5 Ma is best studied. While biotic response to the PETM as a whole (~170 kyrs has been relatively well documented, variations during the PETM have been neglected. Here we present organic dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst distribution patterns across two stratigraphically expanded PETM sections from the New Jersey Shelf, Bass River and Wilson Lake. Many previously studied sites show a uniform abundance of the thermophilic and presumably heterotrophic taxon Apectodinium that spans the entire carbon isotope excursion (CIE of the PETM. In contrast, the New Jersey sections show large variations in abundances of many taxa during the PETM, including the new species Florentinia reichartii that we formally propose. We infer paleoecological preferences of taxa that show temporal abundance peaks, both qualitative and absolute quantitative, from empirical as well as statistical information, i.e., principle (PCA and canonical correspondence analyses (CCA. In the CCAs, we combine the dinocyst data with previously published environmental proxy data from these locations, such as TEX86 paleothermometry, magnetic susceptibility and sedimentary size fraction. The combined information supports previous inferences that sea level rose during the PETM, but also indicates a (regional increase in fresh-water runoff that started ~10 kyr after the onset of the CIE, and perhaps precession-paced cycles in sea surface productivity. The highly variable dinocyst assemblages of the PETM contrast with rather stable Upper Paleocene assemblages, which suggests that carbon input caused a dynamic climate state, at least regionally.

  3. Limitations on Inferring 3D Architecture and Dynamics From Surface Velocities in the India-Eurasia Collision Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flesch, L.; Bendick, R.; Bischoff, S.

    2018-02-01

    Surface velocities derived from Global Positioning System observations and Quaternary fault slip rates measured throughout an extended region of high topography in South Asia vary smoothly over thousands of kilometers and are broadly symmetrical, with components of both north-south shortening and east-west extension relative to stable Eurasia. The observed velocity field does not contain discontinuities or steep gradients attributable to along-strike differences in collision architecture, despite the well-documented presence of a lithospheric slab beneath the Pamir but not the Tibetan Plateau. We use a modified Akaike information criterion (AICc) to show that surface velocities do not efficiently constrain 3D rheology, geometry, or force balance. Therefore, although other geophysical and geological observations may indicate the presence of mechanical or dynamic heterogeneities within the Indian-Asian collision, the surface Global Positioning System velocities contain little or no usable information about them.

  4. DREISS: Using State-Space Models to Infer the Dynamics of Gene Expression Driven by External and Internal Regulatory Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerstein, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Gene expression is controlled by the combinatorial effects of regulatory factors from different biological subsystems such as general transcription factors (TFs), cellular growth factors and microRNAs. A subsystem’s gene expression may be controlled by its internal regulatory factors, exclusively, or by external subsystems, or by both. It is thus useful to distinguish the degree to which a subsystem is regulated internally or externally–e.g., how non-conserved, species-specific TFs affect the expression of conserved, cross-species genes during evolution. We developed a computational method (DREISS, dreiss.gerteinlab.org) for analyzing the Dynamics of gene expression driven by Regulatory networks, both External and Internal based on State Space models. Given a subsystem, the “state” and “control” in the model refer to its own (internal) and another subsystem’s (external) gene expression levels. The state at a given time is determined by the state and control at a previous time. Because typical time-series data do not have enough samples to fully estimate the model’s parameters, DREISS uses dimensionality reduction, and identifies canonical temporal expression trajectories (e.g., degradation, growth and oscillation) representing the regulatory effects emanating from various subsystems. To demonstrate capabilities of DREISS, we study the regulatory effects of evolutionarily conserved vs. divergent TFs across distant species. In particular, we applied DREISS to the time-series gene expression datasets of C. elegans and D. melanogaster during their embryonic development. We analyzed the expression dynamics of the conserved, orthologous genes (orthologs), seeing the degree to which these can be accounted for by orthologous (internal) versus species-specific (external) TFs. We found that between two species, the orthologs have matched, internally driven expression patterns but very different externally driven ones. This is particularly true for genes with

  5. DREISS: Using State-Space Models to Infer the Dynamics of Gene Expression Driven by External and Internal Regulatory Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daifeng Wang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Gene expression is controlled by the combinatorial effects of regulatory factors from different biological subsystems such as general transcription factors (TFs, cellular growth factors and microRNAs. A subsystem's gene expression may be controlled by its internal regulatory factors, exclusively, or by external subsystems, or by both. It is thus useful to distinguish the degree to which a subsystem is regulated internally or externally-e.g., how non-conserved, species-specific TFs affect the expression of conserved, cross-species genes during evolution. We developed a computational method (DREISS, dreiss.gerteinlab.org for analyzing the Dynamics of gene expression driven by Regulatory networks, both External and Internal based on State Space models. Given a subsystem, the "state" and "control" in the model refer to its own (internal and another subsystem's (external gene expression levels. The state at a given time is determined by the state and control at a previous time. Because typical time-series data do not have enough samples to fully estimate the model's parameters, DREISS uses dimensionality reduction, and identifies canonical temporal expression trajectories (e.g., degradation, growth and oscillation representing the regulatory effects emanating from various subsystems. To demonstrate capabilities of DREISS, we study the regulatory effects of evolutionarily conserved vs. divergent TFs across distant species. In particular, we applied DREISS to the time-series gene expression datasets of C. elegans and D. melanogaster during their embryonic development. We analyzed the expression dynamics of the conserved, orthologous genes (orthologs, seeing the degree to which these can be accounted for by orthologous (internal versus species-specific (external TFs. We found that between two species, the orthologs have matched, internally driven expression patterns but very different externally driven ones. This is particularly true for genes with

  6. Dynamics of avian haemosporidian assemblages through millennial time scales inferred from insular biotas of the West Indies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Leticia; Latta, Steven C; Ricklefs, Robert E

    2017-06-20

    Although introduced hemosporidian (malaria) parasites (Apicomplexa: Haemosporida) have hastened the extinction of endemic bird species in the Hawaiian Islands and perhaps elsewhere, little is known about the temporal dynamics of endemic malaria parasite populations. Haemosporidian parasites do not leave informative fossils, and records of population change are lacking beyond a few decades. Here, we take advantage of the isolation of West Indian land-bridge islands by rising postglacial sea levels to estimate rates of change in hemosporidian parasite assemblages over a millennial time frame. Several pairs of West Indian islands have been connected and separated by falling and rising sea levels associated with the advance and retreat of Pleistocene continental glaciers. We use island isolation following postglacial sea-level rise, ca. 2.5 ka, to characterize long-term change in insular assemblages of hemosporidian parasites. We find that assemblages on formerly connected islands are as differentiated as assemblages on islands that have never been connected, and both are more differentiated than local assemblages sampled up to two decades apart. Differentiation of parasite assemblages between formerly connected islands reflects variation in the prevalence of shared hemosporidian lineages, whereas differentiation between islands isolated by millions of years reflects replacement of hemosporidian lineages infecting similar assemblages of avian host species.

  7. Dynamic Modeling of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell System using Empirical Data and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2013-01-01

    In this work, a dynamic MATLAB Simulink model of a H3-350 Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell (RMFC) stand-alone battery charger produced by Serenergy is developed on the basis of theoretical and empirical methods. The advantage of RMFC systems is that they use liquid methanol as a fuel instead of gaseous...... of the reforming process are implemented. Models of the cooling flow of the blowers for the fuel cell and the burner which supplies process heat for the reformer are made. The two blowers have a common exhaust, which means that the two blowers influence each other’s output. The models take this into account using...... an empirical approach. Fin efficiency models for the cooling effect of the air are also developed using empirical methods. A fuel cell model is also implemented based on a standard model which is adapted to fit the measured performance of the H3-350 module. All the individual parts of the model are verified...

  8. Dynamic Modeling of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell System using Empirical Data and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2014-01-01

    In this work, a dynamic MATLAB Simulink model of a H3-350 Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell (RMFC) stand-alone battery charger produced by Serenergy is developed on the basis of theoretical and empirical methods. The advantage of RMFC systems is that they use liquid methanol as a fuel instead of gaseous...... of the reforming process are implemented. Models of the cooling flow of the blowers for the fuel cell and the burner which supplies process heat for the reformer are made. The two blowers have a common exhaust, which means that the two blowers influence each other’s output. The models take this into account using...... an empirical approach. Fin efficiency models for the cooling effect of the air are also developed using empirical methods. A fuel cell model is also implemented based on a standard model which is adapted to fit the measured performance of the H3-350 module. All the individual parts of the model are verified...

  9. Evolutionary dynamics of ecological niche in three Rhinogobio fishes from the upper Yangtze River inferred from morphological traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Meirong; Liu, Fei; Lin, Pengcheng; Yang, Shaorong; Liu, Huanzhang

    2015-01-01

    In the past decades, it has been debated whether ecological niche should be conserved among closely related species (phylogenetic niche conservatism, PNC) or largely divergent (traditional ecological niche theory and ecological speciation) and whether niche specialist and generalist might remain in equilibrium or niche generalist could not appear. In this study, we employed morphological traits to describe ecological niche and test whether different niche dimensions exhibit disparate evolutionary patterns. We conducted our analysis on three Rhinogobio fish species (R. typus,R. cylindricus, and R. ventralis) from the upper Yangtze River, China. Among the 32 measured morphological traits except body length, PCA extracted the first four principal components with their loading scores >1.000. To find the PNC among species, Mantel tests were conducted with the Euclidean distances calculated from the four principal components (representing different niche dimensions) against the pairwise distances calculated from mitochondrial cytochrome b sequence variations. The results showed that the second and the third niche dimension, both related to swimming ability and behavior, exhibited phylogenetic conservatism. Further comparison on niche breadth among these three species revealed that the fourth dimension of R. typus showed the greatest width, indicating that this dimension exhibited niche generalism. In conclusion, our results suggested that different niche dimensions could show different evolutionary dynamic patterns: they may exhibit PNC or not, and some dimensions may evolve generalism. PMID:25691981

  10. Dynamical Timescale of Pre-collapse Evolution Inferred from Chemical Distribution in the Taurus Molecular Cloud-1 (TMC-1) Filament

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Yunhee; Lee, Jeong-Eun [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, 1732, Deogyeong-daero, Giheung-gu, Yongin-si, Gyeonggi-do 17104 (Korea, Republic of); Bourke, Tyler L. [Square Kilometre Array Organisation, Jodrell Bank Observatory, Lower Withington, Cheshire SK11 9DL (United Kingdom); II, Neal J. Evans, E-mail: yunhee.choi@khu.ac.kr, E-mail: jeongeun.lee@khu.ac.kr [Department of Astronomy, University of Texas at Austin, 2515 Speedway, Stop C1400, Austin, TX 78712-1205 (United States)

    2017-04-01

    We present observations and analyses of the low-mass star-forming region, Taurus Molecular Cloud-1 (TMC-1). CS ( J = 2–1)/N{sub 2}H{sup +} ( J = 1–0) and C{sup 17}O ( J = 2–1)/C{sup 18}O ( J = 2–1) were observed with the Five College Radio Astronomy Observatory and the Seoul Radio Astronomy Observatory, respectively. In addition, Spitzer infrared data and 1.2 mm continuum data observed with Max-Planck Millimetre Bolometer are used. We also perform chemical modeling to investigate the relative molecular distributions of the TMC-1 filament. Based on Spitzer observations, there is no young stellar object along the TMC-1 filament, while five Class II and one Class I young stellar objects are identified outside the filament. The comparison between column densities calculated from dust continuum and C{sup 17}O 2–1 line emission shows that CO is depleted much more significantly in the ammonia peak than in the cyanopolyyne peak, while the column densities calculated from the dust continuum are similar at the two peaks. N{sub 2}H{sup +} is not depleted much in either peak. According to our chemical calculation, the differential chemical distribution in the two peaks can be explained by different timescales required to reach the same density, i.e., by different dynamical processes.

  11. Chlamydia - CDC Fact Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Archive STDs Home Page Bacterial Vaginosis (BV) Chlamydia Gonorrhea Genital Herpes Hepatitis HIV/AIDS & STDs Human Papillomavirus ( ... sheet Pelvic Inflammatory Disease (PID) – CDC fact sheet Gonorrhea – CDC fact sheet STDs Home Page Bacterial Vaginosis ( ...

  12. Perforation of metal sheets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steenstrup, Jens Erik

    simulation is focused on the sheet deformation. However, the effect on the tool and press is included. The process model is based on the upper bound analysis in order to predict the force progress and hole characteristics etc. Parameter analyses are divided into two groups, simulation and experimental tests......The main purposes of this project are:1. Development of a dynamic model for the piercing and performation process2. Analyses of the main parameters3. Establishing demands for process improvements4. Expansion of the existing parameter limitsThe literature survey describes the process influence...

  13. Geometry of thin liquid sheet flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chubb, Donald L.; Calfo, Frederick D.; Mcconley, Marc W.; Mcmaster, Matthew S.; Afjeh, Abdollah A.

    1994-01-01

    Incompresible, thin sheet flows have been of research interest for many years. Those studies were mainly concerned with the stability of the flow in a surrounding gas. Squire was the first to carry out a linear, invicid stability analysis of sheet flow in air and compare the results with experiment. Dombrowski and Fraser did an experimental study of the disintegration of sheet flows using several viscous liquids. They also detected the formulation of holes in their sheet flows. Hagerty and Shea carried out an inviscid stability analysis and calculated growth rates with experimental values. They compared their calculated growth rates with experimental values. Taylor studied extensively the stability of thin liquid sheets both theoretically and experimentally. He showed that thin sheets in a vacuum are stable. Brown experimentally investigated thin liquid sheet flows as a method of application of thin films. Clark and Dumbrowski carried out second-order stability analysis for invicid sheet flows. Lin introduced viscosity into the linear stability analysis of thin sheet flows in a vacuum. Mansour and Chigier conducted an experimental study of the breakup of a sheet flow surrounded by high-speed air. Lin et al. did a linear stability analysis that included viscosity and a surrounding gas. Rangel and Sirignano carried out both a linear and nonlinear invisid stability analysis that applies for any density ratio between the sheet liquid and the surrounding gas. Now there is renewed interest in sheet flows because of their possible application as low mass radiating surfaces. The objective of this study is to investigate the fluid dynamics of sheet flows that are of interest for a space radiator system. Analytical expressions that govern the sheet geometry are compared with experimental results. Since a space radiator will operate in a vacuum, the analysis does not include any drag force on the sheet flow.

  14. A Synthesis of the Basal Thermal State of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macgregor, J. A.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Catania, G. A.; Aschwanden, A.; Clow, G. D.; Colgan, W. T.; Gogineni, S. P.; Morlighem, M.; Nowicki, S. M. J.; Paden, J. D.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Greenland's thick ice sheet insulates the bedrock below from the cold temperatures at the surface, so the bottom of the ice is often tens of degrees warmer than at the top, because the ice bottom is slowly warmed by heat coming from the Earth's depths. Knowing whether Greenland's ice lies on wet, slippery ground or is anchored to dry, frozen bedrock is essential for predicting how this ice will flow in the future. But scientists have very few direct observations of the thermal conditions beneath the ice sheet, obtained through fewer than two dozen boreholes that have reached the bottom. Our study synthesizes several independent methods to infer the Greenland Ice Sheet's basal thermal state -whether the bottom of the ice is melted or not-leading to the first map that identifies frozen and thawed areas across the whole ice sheet. This map will guide targets for future investigations of the Greenland Ice Sheet toward the most vulnerable and poorly understood regions, ultimately improving our understanding of its dynamics and contribution to future sea-level rise. It is of particular relevance to ongoing Operation IceBridge activities and future large-scale airborne missions over Greenland.

  15. Missoula flood dynamics and magnitudes inferred from sedimentology of slack-water deposits on the Columbia Plateau, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, G.A.

    1993-01-01

    Sedimentological study of late Wisconsin, Missoula-flood slack-water sediments deposited along the Columbia and Tucannon Rivers in southern Washington reveals important aspects of flood dynamics. Most flood facies were deposited by energetic flood surges (velocities>6 m/sec) entering protected areas along the flood tract, or flowing up and then directly out of tributary valleys. True still-water facies are less voluminous and restricted to elevations below 230 m. High flood stages attended the initial arrival of the flood wave and were not associated with subsequent hydraulic ponding upslope from channel constrictions. Among 186 flood beds studied in 12 sections, 57% have bioturbated tops, and about half of these bioturbated beds are separated from overlying flood beds by nonflood sediments. A single graded flood bed was deposited at most sites during most floods. Sequences in which 2-9 graded beds were deposited during a single flood are restricted to low elevations. These sequences imply complex, multi-peaked hydrographs in which the first flood surge was generally the largest, and subsequent surges were attenuated by water already present in slack-water areas. Slack-water - sediment stratigraphy suggests a wide range of flood discharges and volumes. Of >40 documented late Wisconsin floods that inundated the Pasco Basin, only about 20 crossed the Palouse-Snake divide. Floods younger than the set-S tephras from Mount St.Helens were generally smaller than earlier floods of late Wisconsin age, although most still crossed the Palouse-Snake divide. These late floods primarily traversed the Cheney-Palouse scabland because stratigraphy of slack-water sediment along the Columbia River implies that the largest flood volumes did not enter the Pasco Basin by way of the Columbia River. 47 refs., 17 figs., 2 tabs

  16. GASN sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-12-01

    This document gathers around 50 detailed sheets which describe and present various aspects, data and information related to the nuclear sector or, more generally to energy. The following items are addressed: natural and artificial radioactive environment, evolution of energy needs in the world, radioactive wastes, which energy for France tomorrow, the consequences in France of the Chernobyl accident, ammunitions containing depleted uranium, processing and recycling of used nuclear fuel, transport of radioactive materials, seismic risk for the basic nuclear installations, radon, the precautionary principle, the issue of low doses, the EPR, the greenhouse effect, the Oklo nuclear reactors, ITER on the way towards fusion reactors, simulation and nuclear deterrence, crisis management in the nuclear field, does nuclear research put a break on the development of renewable energies by monopolizing funding, nuclear safety and security, the plutonium, generation IV reactors, comparison of different modes of electricity production, medical exposure to ionizing radiations, the control of nuclear activities, food preservation by ionization, photovoltaic solar collectors, the Polonium 210, the dismantling of nuclear installations, wind energy, desalination and nuclear reactors, from non-communication to transparency about nuclear safety, the Jules Horowitz reactor, CO 2 capture and storage, hydrogen, solar energy, the radium, the subcontractors of maintenance of the nuclear fleet, biomass, internal radio-contamination, epidemiological studies, submarine nuclear propulsion, sea energy, the Three Mile Island accident, the Chernobyl accident, the Fukushima accident, the nuclear after Fukushima

  17. Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: A comparison to capture-recapture approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Scott, Sillett T.; Chandler, Richard; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive

  18. Eight challenges in phylodynamic inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D.W. Frost

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The field of phylodynamics, which attempts to enhance our understanding of infectious disease dynamics using pathogen phylogenies, has made great strides in the past decade. Basic epidemiological and evolutionary models are now well characterized with inferential frameworks in place. However, significant challenges remain in extending phylodynamic inference to more complex systems. These challenges include accounting for evolutionary complexities such as changing mutation rates, selection, reassortment, and recombination, as well as epidemiological complexities such as stochastic population dynamics, host population structure, and different patterns at the within-host and between-host scales. An additional challenge exists in making efficient inferences from an ever increasing corpus of sequence data.

  19. Stratigraphy, sedimentology and inferred flow dynamics from the July 2015 block-and-ash flow deposits at Volcán de Colima, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macorps, Elodie; Charbonnier, Sylvain J.; Varley, Nick R.; Capra, Lucia; Atlas, Zachary; Cabré, Josep

    2018-01-01

    The July 2015 block-and-ash flow (BAF) events represent the first documented series of large-volume and long-runout BAFs generated from sustained dome collapses at Volcán de Colima. This eruption is particularly exceptional at this volcano due to (1) the large volume of BAF material emplaced (0.0077 ± 0.001 km3), (2) the long runout reached by the associated BAFs (max. 10 km), and (3) the short period ( 18 h) over which two main long-sustained dome collapse events occurred (on 10 and 11 July, respectively). Stratigraphy and sedimentology of the 2015 BAF deposits exposed in the southern flank of the volcano based on lithofacies description, grain size measurements and clast componentry allowed the recognition of three main deposit facies (i.e., valley-confined, overbank and ash-cloud surge deposits). Correlations and lithofacies variations inside three main flow units from both the valley-confined and overbank deposits left from the emplacement of the second series of BAFs on 11 July provide detailed information about: (1) the distribution, volumes and sedimentological characteristics of the different units; (2) flow parameters (i.e., velocity and dynamic pressure) and mobility metrics as inferred from associated deposits; and (3) changes in the dynamics of the different flows and their material during emplacement. These data were coupled with geomorphic analyses to assess the role of the topography in controlling the behaviour and impacts of the successive BAF pulses on the volcano flanks. Finally, these findings are used to propose a conceptual model for transport and deposition mechanisms of the July 2015 BAFs at Volcán de Colima. In this model, deposition occurs by rapid stepwise aggradation of successive BAF pulses. Flow confinement in a narrow and sinuous channel enhance the mobility and runout of individual channelized BAF pulses. When these conditions occur, the progressive valley infilling from successive sustained dome-collapse events promote the

  20. Inference in models with adaptive learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chevillon, G.; Massmann, M.; Mavroeidis, S.

    2010-01-01

    Identification of structural parameters in models with adaptive learning can be weak, causing standard inference procedures to become unreliable. Learning also induces persistent dynamics, and this makes the distribution of estimators and test statistics non-standard. Valid inference can be

  1. Predicting Pulsar Scintillation from Refractive Plasma Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simard, Dana; Pen, Ue-Li

    2018-05-01

    The dynamic and secondary spectra of many pulsars show evidence for long-lived, aligned images of the pulsar that are stationary on a thin scattering sheet. One explanation for this phenomenon considers the effects of wave crests along sheets in the ionized interstellar medium, such as those due to Alfvén waves propagating along current sheets. If these sheets are closely aligned to our line-of-sight to the pulsar, high bending angles arise at the wave crests and a selection effect causes alignment of images produced at different crests, similar to grazing reflection off of a lake. Using geometric optics, we develop a simple parameterized model of these corrugated sheets that can be constrained with a single observation and that makes observable predictions for variations in the scintillation of the pulsar over time and frequency. This model reveals qualitative differences between lensing from overdense and underdense corrugated sheets: Only if the sheet is overdense compared to the surrounding interstellar medium can the lensed images be brighter than the line-of-sight image to the pulsar, and the faint lensed images are closer to the pulsar at higher frequencies if the sheet is underdense, but at lower frequencies if the sheet is overdense.

  2. Ice sheet hydrology - a review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansson, Peter; Naeslund, Jens-Ove [Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden); Rodhe, Lars [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2007-03-15

    This report summarizes the theoretical knowledge on water flow in and beneath glaciers and ice sheets and how these theories are applied in models to simulate the hydrology of ice sheets. The purpose is to present the state of knowledge and, perhaps more importantly, identify the gaps in our understanding of ice sheet hydrology. Many general concepts in hydrology and hydraulics are applicable to water flow in glaciers. However, the unique situation of having the liquid phase flowing in conduits of the solid phase of the same material, water, is not a commonly occurring phenomena. This situation means that the heat exchange between the phases and the resulting phase changes also have to be accounted for in the analysis. The fact that the solidus in the pressure-temperature dependent phase diagram of water has a negative slope provides further complications. Ice can thus melt or freeze from both temperature and pressure variations or variations in both. In order to provide details of the current understanding of water flow in conjunction with deforming ice and to provide understanding for the development of ideas and models, emphasis has been put on the mathematical treatments, which are reproduced in detail. Qualitative results corroborating theory or, perhaps more often, questioning the simplifications made in theory, are also given. The overarching problem with our knowledge of glacier hydrology is the gap between the local theories of processes and the general flow of water in glaciers and ice sheets. Water is often channelized in non-stationary conduits through the ice, features which due to their minute size relative to the size of glaciers and ice sheets are difficult to incorporate in spatially larger models. Since the dynamic response of ice sheets to global warming is becoming a key issue in, e.g. sea-level change studies, the problems of the coupling between the hydrology of an ice sheet and its dynamics is steadily gaining interest. New work is emerging

  3. Ice sheet hydrology - a review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansson, Peter; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Rodhe, Lars

    2007-03-01

    This report summarizes the theoretical knowledge on water flow in and beneath glaciers and ice sheets and how these theories are applied in models to simulate the hydrology of ice sheets. The purpose is to present the state of knowledge and, perhaps more importantly, identify the gaps in our understanding of ice sheet hydrology. Many general concepts in hydrology and hydraulics are applicable to water flow in glaciers. However, the unique situation of having the liquid phase flowing in conduits of the solid phase of the same material, water, is not a commonly occurring phenomena. This situation means that the heat exchange between the phases and the resulting phase changes also have to be accounted for in the analysis. The fact that the solidus in the pressure-temperature dependent phase diagram of water has a negative slope provides further complications. Ice can thus melt or freeze from both temperature and pressure variations or variations in both. In order to provide details of the current understanding of water flow in conjunction with deforming ice and to provide understanding for the development of ideas and models, emphasis has been put on the mathematical treatments, which are reproduced in detail. Qualitative results corroborating theory or, perhaps more often, questioning the simplifications made in theory, are also given. The overarching problem with our knowledge of glacier hydrology is the gap between the local theories of processes and the general flow of water in glaciers and ice sheets. Water is often channelized in non-stationary conduits through the ice, features which due to their minute size relative to the size of glaciers and ice sheets are difficult to incorporate in spatially larger models. Since the dynamic response of ice sheets to global warming is becoming a key issue in, e.g. sea-level change studies, the problems of the coupling between the hydrology of an ice sheet and its dynamics is steadily gaining interest. New work is emerging

  4. Evolution of a Greenland Ice sheet Including Shelves and Regional Sea Level Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Sarah; Reerink, Thomas; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Helsen, Michiel; Goelzer, Heiko

    2016-04-01

    Observational evidence, including offshore moraines and marine sediment cores infer that at the Last Glacial maximum (LGM) the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) grounded out across the Davis Strait into Baffin Bay, with fast flowing ice streams extending out to the continental shelf break along the NW margin. These observations lead to a number of questions as to weather the GIS and Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) coalesced during glacial maximums, and if so, did a significant ice shelf develop across Baffin Bay and how would such a configuration impact on the relative contribution of these ice sheets to eustatic sea level (ESL). Most previous paleo ice sheet modelling simulations of the GIS recreated an ice sheet that either did not extend out onto the continental shelf or utilised a simplified marine ice parameterisation to recreate an extended GIS, and therefore did not fully include ice shelf dynamics. In this study we simulate the evolution of the GIS from 220 kyr BP to present day using IMAU-ice; a 3D thermodynamical ice sheet model which fully accounts for grounded and floating ice, calculates grounding line migration and ice shelf dynamics. As there are few observational estimates of the long-term (yrs) sub marine basal melting rates (mbm) for the GIS, we developed a mbm parameterization within IMAU-ice controlled primarily by changes in paleo water depth. We also investigate the influence of the LIS on the GIS evolution by including relative sea level forcing's derived from a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model. We will present results of how changes in the mbm directly impacts on the ice sheet dynamics, timing and spatial extent of the GIS at the glacial maximums, but also on the rate of retreat and spatial extent at the Last interglacial (LIG) minimum. Results indicate that with the inclusion of ice shelf dynamics, a larger GIS is generated which is grounded out into Davis strait, up to a water depth of -750 m, but significantly reduces the GIS contribution to Last

  5. Antarctic Circumpolar Current Dynamics and Their Relation to Antarctic Ice Sheet and Perennial Sea-Ice Variability in the Central Drake Passage During the Last Climate Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, G.; Wu, S.; Hass, H. C.; Klages, J. P.; Zheng, X.; Arz, H. W.; Esper, O.; Hillenbrand, C. D.; Lange, C.; Lamy, F.; Lohmann, G.; Müller, J.; McCave, I. N. N.; Nürnberg, D.; Roberts, J.; Tiedemann, R.; Timmermann, A.; Titschack, J.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last climate cycle and the interrelation to global atmospheric and ocean circulation remains controversial and plays an important role for our understanding of ice sheet response to modern global warming. The timing and sequence of deglacial warming is relevant for understanding the variability and sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climatic changes, and the continuing rise of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is a pivotal component of the global water budget. Freshwater fluxes from the ice sheet may affect the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which is strongly impacted by the westerly wind belt in the Southern Hemisphere (SHWW) and constricted to its narrowest extent in the Drake Passage. The flow of ACC water masses through Drake Passage is, therefore, crucial for advancing our understanding of the Southern Ocean's role in global meridional overturning circulation and global climate change. In order to address orbital and millennial-scale variability of the Antarctic ice sheet and the ACC, we applied a multi-proxy approach on a sediment core from the central Drake Passage including grain size, iceberg-rafted debris, mineral dust, bulk chemical and mineralogical composition, and physical properties. In combination with already published and new sediment records from the Drake Passage and Scotia Sea, as well as high-resolution data from Antarctic ice cores (WDC, EDML), we now have evidence that during glacial times a more northerly extent of the perennial sea-ice zone decreased ACC current velocities in the central Drake Passage. During deglaciation the SHWW shifted southwards due to a decreasing temperature gradient between subtropical and polar latitudes caused by sea ice and ice sheet decline. This in turn caused Southern Hemisphere warming, a more vigorous ACC, stronger Southern Ocean ventilation, and warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) upwelling on Antarctic shelves

  6. Influence of Solar Wind on the Global Electric Circuit, and Inferred Effects on Cloud Microphysics, Temperature, and Dynamics in the Troposphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinsley, Brian A.

    2000-11-01

    clouds droplet freezing can occur by contact ice nucleation, as the evaporation nuclei are electroscavenged. Although quantitative models for the all the cloud microphysical processes that may be involved have not yet been produced, we show that for many clouds, especially those with broad droplet size distributions, relatively high droplet concentrations, and cloud top temperatures just below freezing, this process is likely to dominate over other primary ice nucleation processes. In these cases there are likely to be effects on cloud albedo and rates of sedimentation of ice, and these will depend on J_z. For an increase in ice production in thin clouds such as altocumulus or stratocumulus the main effect is a decrease in albedo to incoming solar radiation, and in opacity to outgoing longwave radiation. At low latitudes the surface and troposphere heat, and at high latitudes in winter they cool. The change in meridional temperature gradient affects the rate of cyclogenesis, and the amplitude of planetary waves. For storm clouds, as in winter cyclones, the effect of increased ice formation is mainly to increase the rate of glaciation of lower level clouds by the seeder-feeder process. The increase in precipitation efficiency increases the rate of transfer of latent heat between the air mass and the surface. In most cyclones this is likely to result in intensification, producing changes in the vorticity area index as observed. Cyclone intensification also increases the amplitude of planetary waves, and shifts storm tracks, as observed. In this paper we first describe the production of space charge and the way in which it may influence the rate of ice nucleation. Then we review theory and observations of the solar wind modulation of J_z, and the correlated changes in atmospheric temperature and dynamics in the troposphere. The correlations are present for each input, (A, B, and C), and the detailed patterns of responses provide support for the inferred electrical effects

  7. Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new-generation ice sheet model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Gagliardini

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice sheet flow models, in their current state, were unable to provide accurate forecast for the increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice flow models, and as a result a significant number of new ice sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger-scale problems, earning the status of an ice sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. Elmer/Ice solves the full-Stokes equations, for isotropic but also anisotropic ice rheology, resolves the grounding line dynamics as a contact problem, and contains various basal friction laws. Derived fields, like the age of the ice, the strain rate or stress, can also be computed. Elmer/Ice includes two recently proposed inverse methods to infer badly known parameters. Elmer is a highly parallelised code thanks to recent developments and the implementation of a block preconditioned solver for the Stokes system. In this paper, all these components are presented in detail, as well as the numerical performance of the Stokes solver and developments planned for the future.

  8. An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.; Kennedy, Joseph H.; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H.; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G.; Tuminaro, Raymond S.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.

    2017-01-01

    We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013, using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin-scale and whole-ice-sheet-scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate a predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes that have occurred on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CmCt as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.

  9. Physics of the magnetotail current sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, J.

    1993-01-01

    The Earth's magnetotail plays an important role in the solar-wind--magnetosphere coupling. At the midplane of the magnetotail is a current sheet where the dominant magnetic field component reverses sign. The charged particle motion in and near the current sheet is collisionless and nonintegrable, exhibiting chaotic scattering. The current understanding of the dynamical properties of the charged particle motion is discussed. In particular, the relationships between particle dynamics and global attributes of the system are elucidated. Geometrical properties of the phase space determine important physical observables on both micro- and macroscales

  10. Ice sheet in peril

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvidberg, Christine Schøtt

    2016-01-01

    Earth's large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are major contributors to sea level change. At present, the Greenland Ice Sheet (see the photo) is losing mass in response to climate warming in Greenland (1), but the present changes also include a long-term response to past climate transitions...

  11. Mobility Balance Sheet 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jorritsma, P.; Derriks, H.; Francke, J.; Gordijn, H.; Groot, W.; Harms, L.; Van der Loop, H.; Peer, S.; Savelberg, F.; Wouters, P.

    2009-06-01

    The Mobility Balance Sheet provides an overview of the state of the art of mobility in the Netherlands. In addition to describing the development of mobility this report also provides explanations for the growth of passenger and freight transport. Moreover, the Mobility Balance Sheet also focuses on a topical theme: the effects of economic crises on mobility. [nl

  12. SEMANTIC PATCH INFERENCE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    Collateral evolution the problem of updating several library-using programs in response to API changes in the used library. In this dissertation we address the issue of understanding collateral evolutions by automatically inferring a high-level specification of the changes evident in a given set ...... specifications inferred by spdiff in Linux are shown. We find that the inferred specifications concisely capture the actual collateral evolution performed in the examples....

  13. Firm Investment and Balance-Sheet Problems in Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Toshitaka Sekine

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether balance-sheet conditions of firms and their main banks matter for firm investment behavior using dynamic corporate panel data in Japan for the period 1985-95. It finds that smaller non-bond issuing firms were facing liquidity constraints; these firms’ balance-sheet conditions (the debt asset ratios) affected their investment from the midst of the bubble era by influencing main banks’ lending to them; and the deterioration of their main banks’ balance-sheet cond...

  14. Global transcription regulation of RK2 plasmids: a case study in the combined use of dynamical mathematical models and statistical inference for integration of experimental data and hypothesis exploration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Christopher M

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background IncP-1 plasmids are broad host range plasmids that have been found in clinical and environmental bacteria. They often carry genes for antibiotic resistance or catabolic pathways. The archetypal IncP-1 plasmid RK2 is a well-characterized biological system, with a fully sequenced and annotated genome and wide range of experimental measurements. Its central control operon, encoding two global regulators KorA and KorB, is a natural example of a negatively self-regulated operon. To increase our understanding of the regulation of this operon, we have constructed a dynamical mathematical model using Ordinary Differential Equations, and employed a Bayesian inference scheme, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, as a way of integrating experimental measurements and a priori knowledge. We also compared MCMC and Metabolic Control Analysis (MCA as approaches for determining the sensitivity of model parameters. Results We identified two distinct sets of parameter values, with different biological interpretations, that fit and explain the experimental data. This allowed us to highlight the proportion of repressor protein as dimers as a key experimental measurement defining the dynamics of the system. Analysis of joint posterior distributions led to the identification of correlations between parameters for protein synthesis and partial repression by KorA or KorB dimers, indicating the necessary use of joint posteriors for correct parameter estimation. Using MCA, we demonstrated that the system is highly sensitive to the growth rate but insensitive to repressor monomerization rates in their selected value regions; the latter outcome was also confirmed by MCMC. Finally, by examining a series of different model refinements for partial repression by KorA or KorB dimers alone, we showed that a model including partial repression by KorA and KorB was most compatible with existing experimental data. Conclusions We

  15. Exploring the influence of EGCG on the β-sheet-rich oligomers of human islet amyloid polypeptide (hIAPP1-37 and identifying its possible binding sites from molecular dynamics simulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qianqian Wang

    Full Text Available EGCG possesses the ability of disaggregating the existing amyloid fibrils which were associated with many age-related degenerative diseases. However, the molecular mechanism of EGCG to disaggregate these fibrils is poorly known. In this work, to study the influence of EGCG on the full-length human islet amyloid polypeptide 1-37 (hIAPP1-37 oligomers, molecular dynamics simulations of hIAPP1-37 pentamer and decamer with EGCG were performed, respectively. The obtained results indicate that EGCG indeed destabilized the hIAPP1-37 oligomers. The nematic order parameter and secondary structure calculations coupled with the free-energy landscape indicate that EGCG broke the initial ordered pattern of two polymers, greatly reduced their β-sheet content and enlarged their conformational space. On this basis, three possible target sites were identified with the binding capacity order of S1>S2>S3. After a deeper analysis of each site, we found that S1 was the most possible site on which residues B-Ile26/Ala25, A-Phe23, B/C-Leu27 and E-Tyr37 played an important role for their binding. The proposal of this molecular mechanism can not only provide a prospective interaction figure between EGCG and β-sheet-rich fibrils of hIAPP1-37, but also is useful for further discovering other potential inhibitors.

  16. Inference in `poor` languages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petrov, S.

    1996-10-01

    Languages with a solvable implication problem but without complete and consistent systems of inference rules (`poor` languages) are considered. The problem of existence of finite complete and consistent inference rule system for a ``poor`` language is stated independently of the language or rules syntax. Several properties of the problem arc proved. An application of results to the language of join dependencies is given.

  17. Bayesian statistical inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno De Finetti

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

  18. Geometric statistical inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Periwal, Vipul

    1999-01-01

    A reparametrization-covariant formulation of the inverse problem of probability is explicitly solved for finite sample sizes. The inferred distribution is explicitly continuous for finite sample size. A geometric solution of the statistical inference problem in higher dimensions is outlined

  19. Practical Bayesian Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailer-Jones, Coryn A. L.

    2017-04-01

    Preface; 1. Probability basics; 2. Estimation and uncertainty; 3. Statistical models and inference; 4. Linear models, least squares, and maximum likelihood; 5. Parameter estimation: single parameter; 6. Parameter estimation: multiple parameters; 7. Approximating distributions; 8. Monte Carlo methods for inference; 9. Parameter estimation: Markov chain Monte Carlo; 10. Frequentist hypothesis testing; 11. Model comparison; 12. Dealing with more complicated problems; References; Index.

  20. Is there a hierarchy of social inferences? The likelihood and speed of inferring intentionality, mind, and personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malle, Bertram F; Holbrook, Jess

    2012-04-01

    People interpret behavior by making inferences about agents' intentionality, mind, and personality. Past research studied such inferences 1 at a time; in real life, people make these inferences simultaneously. The present studies therefore examined whether 4 major inferences (intentionality, desire, belief, and personality), elicited simultaneously in response to an observed behavior, might be ordered in a hierarchy of likelihood and speed. To achieve generalizability, the studies included a wide range of stimulus behaviors, presented them verbally and as dynamic videos, and assessed inferences both in a retrieval paradigm (measuring the likelihood and speed of accessing inferences immediately after they were made) and in an online processing paradigm (measuring the speed of forming inferences during behavior observation). Five studies provide evidence for a hierarchy of social inferences-from intentionality and desire to belief to personality-that is stable across verbal and visual presentations and that parallels the order found in developmental and primate research. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  1. Carbon sheet pumping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohyabu, N.; Sagara, A.; Kawamura, T.; Motojima, O.; Ono, T.

    1993-07-01

    A new hydrogen pumping scheme has been proposed which controls recycling of the particles for significant improvement of the energy confinement in toroidal magnetic fusion devices. In this scheme, a part of the vacuum vessel surface near the divertor is covered with carbon sheets of a large surface area. Before discharge initiation, the sheets are baked up to 700 ∼ 1000degC to remove the previously trapped hydrogen atoms. After being cooled down to below ∼ 200degC, the unsaturated carbon sheets trap high energy charge exchange hydrogen atoms effectively during a discharge and overall pumping efficiency can be as high as ∼ 50 %. (author)

  2. Vortices on the string and superstring world sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrikosov, A.A.; Kogan, Ya.I.

    1989-01-01

    The world-sheet dynamics of the first quantized string propagating in non-simply connected space is considered. Presence of the vortices on the world sheet lead to Berezinsky-Kosterlitz-Thouless(BKT) phase transition. Bosonic and superstring cases are discussed. 20 refs.; 2 figs

  3. Anesthesia Fact Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Education About NIGMS NIGMS Home > Science Education > Anesthesia Anesthesia Tagline (Optional) Middle/Main Content Area En español ... Version (464 KB) Other Fact Sheets What is anesthesia? Anesthesia is a medical treatment that prevents patients ...

  4. Structural Biology Fact Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... NIGMS NIGMS Home > Science Education > Structural Biology Structural Biology Tagline (Optional) Middle/Main Content Area PDF Version (688 KB) Other Fact Sheets What is structural biology? Structural biology is the study of how biological ...

  5. Radiation protecting sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makiguchi, Hiroshi.

    1989-01-01

    As protection sheets used in radioactivity administration areas, a thermoplastic polyurethane composition sheet with a thickness of less 0.5 mm, solid content (ash) of less than 5% and a shore D hardness of less than 60 is used. A composite sheet with thickness of less than 0.5 mm laminated or coated with such a thermoplastic polyurethane composition as a surface layer and the thermoplastic polyurethane composition sheet applied with secondary fabrication are used. This can satisfy all of the required properties, such as draping property, abrasion resistance, high breaking strength, necking resistance, endurance strength, as well as chemical resistance and easy burnability in burning furnace. Further, by forming uneveness on the surface by means of embossing, etc. safety problems such as slippage during operation and walking can be overcome. (T.M.)

  6. Energy information sheets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-07-01

    The National Energy Information Center (NEIC), as part of its mission, provides energy information and referral assistance to Federal, State, and local governments, the academic community, business and industrial organizations, and the public. The Energy Information Sheets was developed to provide general information on various aspects of fuel production, prices, consumption, and capability. Additional information on related subject matter can be found in other Energy Information Administration (EIA) publications as referenced at the end of each sheet.

  7. Knowledge and inference

    CERN Document Server

    Nagao, Makoto

    1990-01-01

    Knowledge and Inference discusses an important problem for software systems: How do we treat knowledge and ideas on a computer and how do we use inference to solve problems on a computer? The book talks about the problems of knowledge and inference for the purpose of merging artificial intelligence and library science. The book begins by clarifying the concept of """"knowledge"""" from many points of view, followed by a chapter on the current state of library science and the place of artificial intelligence in library science. Subsequent chapters cover central topics in the artificial intellig

  8. Logical inference and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perey, F.G.

    1981-01-01

    Most methodologies of evaluation currently used are based upon the theory of statistical inference. It is generally perceived that this theory is not capable of dealing satisfactorily with what are called systematic errors. Theories of logical inference should be capable of treating all of the information available, including that not involving frequency data. A theory of logical inference is presented as an extension of deductive logic via the concept of plausibility and the application of group theory. Some conclusions, based upon the application of this theory to evaluation of data, are also given

  9. Energized Oxygen : Speiser Current Sheet Bifurcation

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, D. E.; Jahn, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    A single population of energized Oxygen (O+) is shown to produce a cross-tail bifurcated current sheet in 2.5D PIC simulations of the magnetotail without the influence of magnetic reconnection. Treatment of oxygen in simulations of space plasmas, specifically a magnetotail current sheet, has been limited to thermal energies despite observations of and mechanisms which explain energized ions. We performed simulations of a homogeneous oxygen background, that has been energized in a physically appropriate manner, to study the behavior of current sheets and magnetic reconnection, specifically their bifurcation. This work uses a 2.5D explicit Particle-In-a-Cell (PIC) code to investigate the dynamics of energized heavy ions as they stream Dawn-to-Dusk in the magnetotail current sheet. We present a simulation study dealing with the response of a current sheet system to energized oxygen ions. We establish a, well known and studied, 2-species GEM Challenge Harris current sheet as a starting point. This system is known to eventually evolve and produce magnetic reconnection upon thinning of the current sheet. We added a uniform distribution of thermal O+ to the background. This 3-species system is also known to eventually evolve and produce magnetic reconnection. We add one additional variable to the system by providing an initial duskward velocity to energize the O+. We also traced individual particle motion within the PIC simulation. Three main results are shown. First, energized dawn- dusk streaming ions are clearly seen to exhibit sustained Speiser motion. Second, a single population of heavy ions clearly produces a stable bifurcated current sheet. Third, magnetic reconnection is not required to produce the bifurcated current sheet. Finally a bifurcated current sheet is compatible with the Harris current sheet model. This work is the first step in a series of investigations aimed at studying the effects of energized heavy ions on magnetic reconnection. This work differs

  10. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  11. On quantum statistical inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, O.E.; Gill, R.D.; Jupp, P.E.

    2003-01-01

    Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, developments in the theory of quantum measurements have

  12. INFERENCE BUILDING BLOCKS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-02-15

    expressed a variety of inference techniques on discrete and continuous distributions: exact inference, importance sampling, Metropolis-Hastings (MH...without redoing any math or rewriting any code. And although our main goal is composable reuse, our performance is also good because we can use...control paths. • The Hakaru language can express mixtures of discrete and continuous distributions, but the current disintegration transformation

  13. Introductory statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Nitis

    2014-01-01

    This gracefully organized text reveals the rigorous theory of probability and statistical inference in the style of a tutorial, using worked examples, exercises, figures, tables, and computer simulations to develop and illustrate concepts. Drills and boxed summaries emphasize and reinforce important ideas and special techniques.Beginning with a review of the basic concepts and methods in probability theory, moments, and moment generating functions, the author moves to more intricate topics. Introductory Statistical Inference studies multivariate random variables, exponential families of dist

  14. How can a beta-sheet peptide be both a potent antimicrobial and harmfully toxic? Molecular dynamics simulations of protegrin-1 in micelles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langham, Allison A; Khandelia, Himanshu; Kaznessis, Yiannis N

    2006-01-01

    In this work, the naturally occurring beta-hairpin antimicrobial peptide protegrin-1 (PG-1) is studied by molecular dynamics simulation in all-atom sodium dodecylsulfate and dodecylphosphocholine micelles. These simulations provide a high-resolution picture of the interactions between the peptide...

  15. Sedimentary organic matter and carbonate variations in the Chukchi Borderland in association with ice sheet and ocean-atmosphere dynamics over the last 155 kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rella, S. F.; Uchida, M.

    2012-12-01

    Knowledge on past variability of sedimentary organic carbon in the Arctic Ocean is important to assess natural carbon cycling and transport processes related to global climate changes. However, the late Pleistocene oceanographic history of the Arctic is still poorly understood. In the present study we show sedimentary records of total organic carbon (TOC), CaCO3, benthic foraminiferal δ18O and the coarse grain size fraction from a piston core recovered from the northern Northwind Ridge in the far western Arctic Ocean. TOC shows orbital-scale increases and decreases during the past ~155 kyr that can be respectively correlated to the waxing and waning of large ice sheets dominating the Eurasian Arctic, suggesting advection of fine suspended matter derived from glacial erosion to the Northwind Ridge by eastward flowing intermediate water and/or surface water and sea ice during cold periods. At millennial scales, increases in TOC might correlate to a suite of Dansgaard-Oeschger Stadials between 120 and 45 ka BP indicating a possible response to abrupt northern hemispheric temperature changes. Between 70 and 45 ka BP, closures and openings of the Bering Strait could have additionally influenced TOC variability. CaCO3 contents tend to anti-correlate with TOC on both orbital and millennial time scales, which we interpret in terms of enhanced sediment advection from the carbonate-rich Canadian Arctic via an extended Beaufort Gyre during warm periods and increased organic carbon advection from the Siberian Arctic during cold periods when the Beaufort Gyre contracted. We propose that this pattern may be related to orbital- and millennial-scale variations of dominant atmospheric surface pressure systems expressed in mode shifts of the Arctic Oscillation.

  16. Global dynamics of shaft lines of turbo-machineries coupled to surrounding fluids: application to the case of fluid sheets; Dynamique globale des lignes d'arbres de turbomachines couplees aux fluides environnants: application au cas des lames fluides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lornage, D.

    2001-12-15

    Shaft lines of turbo-machineries have to stand increasing reliability, efficiency and safety requirements. A precise modeling of the rotating parts with all possible coupling has become necessary. In this context, this work aims to develop a global modeling of rotating wheel/shaft system inside a surrounding fluid in order to foresee its dynamical behaviour. The use and advantage of Eulerian, Lagrangian and mixed (arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian - ALE) formulations is recalled first. A bibliographic synthesis of the classical techniques used in structure mechanics and of coupling techniques for rotating machines is presented. The coupling technique retained is presented. It uses fluid and structure models independently developed and validated. The structure domain is discretized by the finite-element method. The fluid domain is discretized by the finite-difference method taking into consideration the hypotheses linked with thin films. A modal base projection combined with a mesh at the fluid-structure interface allows an efficient, adaptable and evolutive coupling. Finally, the method is applied to 3 test-cases. The first two ones comprise a shaft/disc system coupled to a fluid sheet between the disc and the casing and to an hydrodynamic bearing. Both cases allow a first validation of the coupling method. The third case aims to study a structure closer to a real system made of a shaft and a wheel coupled to a fluid sheet between a flange and a casing. These three applications allow to show the trends linked with the fluid effects and the coupling between the flexible sub-parts of the structure. (J.S.)

  17. The Development of the Silurian Trilobite Aulacopleura koninckii Reconstructed by Applying Inferred Growth and Segmentation Dynamics: A Case Study in Paleo-Evo-Devo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel C. Hughes

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Fossilized growth series provide rare glimpses into the development of ancient organisms, illustrating descriptively how size and shape changed through ontogeny. Occasionally fossil preservation is such that it is feasible to test alternative possibilities about how ancient development was regulated. Here we apply inferred developmental parameters pertaining to size, shape, and segmentation in the abundant and well-preserved 429 Myr old trilobite Aulacopleura koninckii that we have investigated previously to reconstruct the post-embryonic ontogeny of this ancient arthropod. Our published morphometric analyses associated with model testing have shown that: specification of the adult number of trunk segments (polymorphic in this species was determined precociously in ontogeny; that growth regulation was targeted (i.e., compensatory, such that each developmental stage exhibited comparable variance in size and shape; and that growth gradients operating along the main body axis, both during juvenile and adult ontogeny, resulted from a form of growth control based on positional specification. While such developmental features are common among extant organisms, our results represent the oldest evidence for them within Metazoa. Herein, the novel reconstruction of the development of Aulacopleura koninckii permits visualization of patterns of relative and absolute growth and segmentation as never before possible for a fossilized arthropod ontogeny. By conducting morphometric analysis of appropriate data sets it is thus possible to move beyond descriptive ontogenetic studies and to address questions of high interest for evolutionary developmental biology using data from fossils, which can help elucidate both how developmental processes themselves evolve and how they affect the evolution of organismal body patterning. By extending similar analyses to other cases of exceptional preservation of fossilized ontogeny, we can anticipate beginning to realize the

  18. Dynamically heterogenous partitions and phylogenetic inference: an evaluation of analytical strategies with cytochrome b and ND6 gene sequences in cranes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krajewski, C; Fain, M G; Buckley, L; King, D G

    1999-11-01

    ki ctes over whether molecular sequence data should be partitioned for phylogenetic analysis often confound two types of heterogeneity among partitions. We distinguish historical heterogeneity (i.e., different partitions have different evolutionary relationships) from dynamic heterogeneity (i.e., different partitions show different patterns of sequence evolution) and explore the impact of the latter on phylogenetic accuracy and precision with a two-gene, mitochondrial data set for cranes. The well-established phylogeny of cranes allows us to contrast tree-based estimates of relevant parameter values with estimates based on pairwise comparisons and to ascertain the effects of incorporating different amounts of process information into phylogenetic estimates. We show that codon positions in the cytochrome b and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 6 genes are dynamically heterogenous under both Poisson and invariable-sites + gamma-rates versions of the F84 model and that heterogeneity includes variation in base composition and transition bias as well as substitution rate. Estimates of transition-bias and relative-rate parameters from pairwise sequence comparisons were comparable to those obtained as tree-based maximum likelihood estimates. Neither rate-category nor mixed-model partitioning strategies resulted in a loss of phylogenetic precision relative to unpartitioned analyses. We suggest that weighted-average distances provide a computationally feasible alternative to direct maximum likelihood estimates of phylogeny for mixed-model analyses of large, dynamically heterogenous data sets. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

  19. State-Space Inference and Learning with Gaussian Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Turner, R; Deisenroth, MP; Rasmussen, CE

    2010-01-01

    18.10.13 KB. Ok to add author version to spiral, authors hold copyright. State-space inference and learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is an unsolved problem. We propose a new, general methodology for inference and learning in nonlinear state-space models that are described probabilistically by non-parametric GP models. We apply the expectation maximization algorithm to iterate between inference in the latent state-space and learning the parameters of the underlying GP dynamics model. C...

  20. Sedimentary organic matter and carbonate variations in the Chukchi Borderland in association with ice sheet and ocean-atmosphere dynamics over the last 155 kyr

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. F. Rella

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on past variability of sedimentary organic carbon in the Arctic Ocean is important to assess natural carbon cycling and transport processes related to global climate changes. However, the late Pleistocene oceanographic history of the Arctic is still poorly understood. In the present study we show sedimentary records of total organic carbon (TOC, CaCO3, benthic foraminiferal δ18O and the coarse grain size fraction from a piston core recovered from the northern Northwind Ridge in the far western Arctic Ocean, a region potentially sensitively responding to past variability in surface current regimes and sedimentary processes such as coastal erosion. An age model based on oxygen stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating and lithological constraints suggests that the piston core records paleoenvironmental changes of the last 155 kyr. TOC shows orbital-scale increases and decreases that can be respectively correlated to the waxing and waning of large ice sheets dominating the Eurasian Arctic, suggesting advection of fine suspended matter derived from glacial erosion to the Northwind Ridge by eastward flowing intermediate water and/or surface water and sea ice during cold episodes of the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. At millennial scales, increases in TOC might correlate to a suite of Dansgaard-Oeschger Stadials between 120 and 45 ka before present (BP indicating a possible response to abrupt northern hemispheric temperature changes. Between 70 and 45 ka BP, closures and openings of the Bering Strait could have additionally influenced TOC variability. CaCO3 content tends to anti-correlate with TOC on both orbital and millennial time scales, which we interpret in terms of enhanced sediment advection from the carbonate-rich Canadian Arctic via an extended Beaufort Gyre during warm periods of the last two glacial-interglacial cycles and increased organic carbon advection from the Siberian Arctic during cold

  1. Disintegration of liquid sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansour, Adel; Chigier, Norman

    1990-01-01

    The development, stability, and disintegration of liquid sheets issuing from a two-dimensional air-assisted nozzle is studied. Detailed measurements of mean drop size and velocity are made using a phase Doppler particle analyzer. Without air flow the liquid sheet converges toward the axis as a result of surface tension forces. With airflow a quasi-two-dimensional expanding spray is formed. The air flow causes small variations in sheet thickness to develop into major disturbances with the result that disruption starts before the formation of the main break-up region. In the two-dimensional variable geometry air-blast atomizer, it is shown that the air flow is responsible for the formation of large, ordered, and small chaotic 'cell' structures.

  2. Safety advice sheets

    CERN Multimedia

    HSE Unit

    2013-01-01

    You never know when you might be faced with questions such as: when/how should I dispose of a gas canister? Where can I find an inspection report? How should I handle/store/dispose of a chemical substance…?   The SI section of the DGS/SEE Group is primarily responsible for safety inspections, evaluating the safety conditions of equipment items, premises and facilities. On top of this core task, it also regularly issues “Safety Advice Sheets” on various topics, designed to be of assistance to users but also to recall and reinforce safety rules and procedures. These clear and concise sheets, complete with illustrations, are easy to display in the appropriate areas. The following safety advice sheets have been issued so far: Other sheets will be published shortly. Suggestions are welcome and should be sent to the SI section of the DGS/SEE Group. Please send enquiries to general-safety-visits.service@cern.ch.

  3. Ice Sheets & Ice Cores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Troels Bøgeholm

    Since the discovery of the Ice Ages it has been evident that Earth’s climate is liable to undergo dramatic changes. The previous climatic period known as the Last Glacial saw large oscillations in the extent of ice sheets covering the Northern hemisphere. Understanding these oscillations known....... The first part concerns time series analysis of ice core data obtained from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We analyze parts of the time series where DO-events occur using the so-called transfer operator and compare the results with time series from a simple model capable of switching by either undergoing...

  4. Energy information sheets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-12-02

    The National Energy Information Center (NEIC), as part of its mission, provides energy information and referral assistance to Federal, State, and local governments, the academic community, business and industrial organizations, and the general public. Written for the general public, the EIA publication Energy Information Sheets was developed to provide information on various aspects of fuel production, prices, consumption and capability. The information contained herein pertains to energy data as of December 1991. Additional information on related subject matter can be found in other EIA publications as referenced at the end of each sheet.

  5. Shape Optimization of Swimming Sheets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkening, J.; Hosoi, A.E.

    2005-03-01

    The swimming behavior of a flexible sheet which moves by propagating deformation waves along its body was first studied by G. I. Taylor in 1951. In addition to being of theoretical interest, this problem serves as a useful model of the locomotion of gastropods and various micro-organisms. Although the mechanics of swimming via wave propagation has been studied extensively, relatively little work has been done to define or describe optimal swimming by this mechanism.We carry out this objective for a sheet that is separated from a rigid substrate by a thin film of viscous Newtonian fluid. Using a lubrication approximation to model the dynamics, we derive the relevant Euler-Lagrange equations to optimize swimming speed and efficiency. The optimization equations are solved numerically using two different schemes: a limited memory BFGS method that uses cubic splines to represent the wave profile, and a multi-shooting Runge-Kutta approach that uses the Levenberg-Marquardt method to vary the parameters of the equations until the constraints are satisfied. The former approach is less efficient but generalizes nicely to the non-lubrication setting. For each optimization problem we obtain a one parameter family of solutions that becomes singular in a self-similar fashion as the parameter approaches a critical value. We explore the validity of the lubrication approximation near this singular limit by monitoring higher order corrections to the zeroth order theory and by comparing the results with finite element solutions of the full Stokes equations.

  6. Diverse Eruptions at Approximately 2,200 Years B.P. on the Great Rift, Idaho: Inferences for Magma Dynamics Along Volcanic Rift Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, S. S.; Nawotniak, S. E. Kobs; Borg, C.; Mallonee, H. C.; Purcell, S.; Neish, C.; Garry, W. B.; Haberle, C. W.; Lim, D. S. S.; Heldmann, J. L.

    2016-01-01

    Compositionally and morphologically diverse lava flows erupted on the Great Rift of Idaho approximately 2.2 ka (kilo-annum, 1000 years ago) during a volcanic "flare-up" of activity following an approximately 2 ky (kiloyear, 1000 years) hiatus in eruptions. Volcanism at Craters of the Moon (COTM), Wapi and Kings Bowl lava fields around this time included primitive and evolved compositions, separated over 75 kilometers along the approximately 85 kilometers-long rift, with striking variability in lava flow emplacement mechanisms and surface morphologies. Although the temporal associations may be coincidental, the system provides a planetary analog to better understand magma dynamics along rift systems, including that associated with lunar floor-fractured craters. This study aims to help bridge the knowledge gap between ancient rift volcanism evident on the Moon and other terrestrial planets, and active rift volcanism, e.g., at Hawai'i and Iceland.

  7. Type Inference with Inequalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff

    1991-01-01

    of (monotonic) inequalities on the types of variables and expressions. A general result about systems of inequalities over semilattices yields a solvable form. We distinguish between deciding typability (the existence of solutions) and type inference (the computation of a minimal solution). In our case, both......Type inference can be phrased as constraint-solving over types. We consider an implicitly typed language equipped with recursive types, multiple inheritance, 1st order parametric polymorphism, and assignments. Type correctness is expressed as satisfiability of a possibly infinite collection...

  8. Cholera Fact Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... news-room/fact-sheets/detail/cholera","@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article"}; العربية 中文 français русский español ... that includes feedback at the local level and information-sharing at the global level. Cholera cases are ...

  9. Pseudomonas - Fact Sheet

    OpenAIRE

    Public Health Agency

    2012-01-01

    Fact sheet on Pseudomonas, including:What is Pseudomonas?What infections does it cause?Who is susceptible to pseudomonas infection?How will I know if I have pseudomonas infection?How can Pseudomonas be prevented from spreading?How can I protect myself from Pseudomonas?How is Pseudomonas infection treated?

  10. NTPR Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    History Documents US Underground Nuclear Test History Reports NTPR Radiation Exposure Reports Enewetak Atoll Cleanup Documents TRAC About Who We Are Our Values History Locations Our Leadership Director Support Center Contact Us FAQ Sheet Links Success Stories Contracts Business Opportunities Current

  11. Production (information sheets)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2007-01-01

    Documentation sheets: Geo energy 2 Integrated System Approach Petroleum Production (ISAPP) The value of smartness 4 Reservoir permeability estimation from production data 6 Coupled modeling for reservoir application 8 Toward an integrated near-wellbore model 10 TNO conceptual framework for "E&P

  12. Hibernia fact sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This fact sheet gives details of the Hibernia oil field including its location, discovery date, oil company's interests in the project, the recoverable reserves of the two reservoirs, the production system used, capital costs of the project, and overall targets for Canadian benefit. Significant dates for the Hibernia project are listed. (UK)

  13. Ethanol Basics (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-01-01

    Ethanol is a widely-used, domestically-produced renewable fuel made from corn and other plant materials. More than 96% of gasoline sold in the United States contains ethanol. Learn more about this alternative fuel in the Ethanol Basics Fact Sheet, produced by the U.S. Department of Energy's Clean Cities program.

  14. Probability based hydrologic catchments of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, B. D.

    2015-12-01

    Greenland Ice Sheet melt water impacts ice sheet flow dynamics, fjord and coastal circulation, and sediment and biogeochemical fluxes. Melt water exiting the ice sheet also is a key term in its mass balance. Because of this, knowledge of the area of the ice sheet that contributes melt water to a given outlet (its hydrologic catchment) is important to many ice sheet studies and is especially critical to methods using river runoff to assess ice sheet mass balance. Yet uncertainty in delineating ice sheet hydrologic catchments is a problem that is rarely acknowledged. Ice sheet catchments are delineated as a function of both basal and surface topography. While surface topography is well known, basal topography is less certain because it is dependent on radar surveys. Here, I a present a Monte Carlo based approach to delineating ice sheet catchments that quantifies the impact of uncertain basal topography. In this scheme, over many iterations I randomly vary the ice sheet bed elevation within published error bounds (using Morlighem et al., 2014 bed and bed error datasets). For each iteration of ice sheet bed elevation, I calculate the hydraulic potentiometric surface and route water over its path of 'steepest' descent to delineate the catchment. I then use all realizations of the catchment to arrive at a probability map of all major melt water outlets in Greenland. I often find that catchment size is uncertain, with small, random perturbations in basal topography leading to large variations in catchments size. While some catchments are well defined, others can double or halve in size within published basal topography error bars. While some uncertainty will likely always remain, this work points to locations where studies of ice sheet hydrology would be the most successful, allows reinterpretation of past results, and points to where future radar surveys would be most advantageous.

  15. Global ice sheet/RSL simulations using the higher-order Ice Sheet System Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larour, E. Y.; Ivins, E. R.; Adhikari, S.; Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Morlighem, M.

    2017-12-01

    Relative sea-level rise is driven by processes that are intimately linked to the evolution ofglacial areas and ice sheets in particular. So far, most Earth System models capable of projecting theevolution of RSL on decadal to centennial time scales have relied on offline interactions between RSL andice sheets. In particular, grounding line and calving front dynamics have not been modeled in a way that istightly coupled with Elasto-Static Adjustment (ESA) and/or Glacial-Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). Here, we presenta new simulation of the entire Earth System in which both Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are tightly coupledto an RSL model that includes both ESA and GIA at resolutions and time scales compatible with processes suchas grounding line dynamics for Antarctica ice shelves and calving front dynamics for Greenland marine-terminatingglaciers. The simulations rely on the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and show the impact of higher-orderice flow dynamics and coupling feedbacks between ice flow and RSL. We quantify the exact impact of ESA andGIA inclusion on grounding line evolution for large ice shelves such as the Ronne and Ross ice shelves, as well asthe Agasea Embayment ice streams, and demonstate how offline vs online RSL simulations diverge in the long run,and the consequences for predictions of sea-level rise.This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory undera contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere Science Program.

  16. Low post-glacial rebound rates in the Weddell Sea due to Late Holocene ice-sheet readvance.

    OpenAIRE

    Bradley, S.L.; Hindmarsh, R.C.A.; Whitehouse, P.L.; Bentley, M.J.; King, M.A.

    2015-01-01

    Many ice-sheet reconstructions assume monotonic Holocene retreat for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but an increasing number of glaciological observations infer that some portions of the ice sheet may be readvancing, following retreat behind the present-day margin. A readvance in the Weddell Sea region can reconcile two outstanding problems: (i) the present-day widespread occurrence of seemingly stable ice streams grounded on beds that deepen inland; and (ii) the inability of models of glacial...

  17. An Overview of Thermal Measurements (IR) at the Summit of Piton de la Fournaise Active Volcano and Inferences on the Structure and Dynamics of its Hydrothermal System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, F.; Peltier, A.; Kowalski, P.; Di Muro, A.; Villeneuve, N.; Ferrazzini, V.; Staudacher, T.

    2017-12-01

    Piton de la Fournaise, located on La Réunion Island in the South East Indian Ocean, is one of the most active basaltic volcanoes (hotspot) of the world with a mean eruption frequency 100×106 m3) on the island, led to the formation of a 400-m-deep, 1000-m-large, funnel-shaped summit caldera. Since then, the floor and inner flanks of this summit depression hosting hot grounds and active fumaroles, are monitored using an infra-red camera device permanently installed on the caldera rim.This thermal dataset constitutes the first opportunity to understand the structure and dynamics of the hydrothermal system and its ability to relay deep-seated heat and mass perturbations. We present in this communication an overview of this thermal datasets focusing on ground/fumaroles temperature evolution during volcanic crisis and rest periods and analyzing correlations with the other permanently acquired data such as the temporal evolution of gas geochemistry (CO2, SO2, H2S), ground deformation and micro-seismic activity. We finally propose a conceptual model of fluid flow architecture within the edifice which paves the way for future quantitative models of hydrothermal heat and mass transfers.

  18. Rubella - Fact Sheet for Parents

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and 4 through 6 years Fact Sheet for Parents Color [2 pages] Español: Rubéola The best way ... according to the recommended schedule. Fact Sheets for Parents Diseases and the Vaccines that Prevent Them Chickenpox ...

  19. Inference as Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane

    2007-01-01

    Inference, or decision making, is seen in curriculum documents as the final step in a statistical investigation. For a formal statistical enquiry this may be associated with sophisticated tests involving probability distributions. For young students without the mathematical background to perform such tests, it is still possible to draw informal…

  20. Hybrid Optical Inference Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-09-27

    with labels. Now, events. a set of facts cal be generated in the dyadic form "u, R 1,2" Eichmann and Caulfield (19] consider the same type of and can...these enceding-schemes. These architectures are-based pri- 19. G. Eichmann and H. J. Caulfield, "Optical Learning (Inference)marily on optical inner

  1. Dynamics of hydrogen induced blistering of a low carbon steel sheet by lamb waves analysis; Ramuha no teiryo kaiseki ni yoru hakubanteitansoko no suiso hare no dainamikkusu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sato, Teruyoshi.; Takemoto, Mikio. [Aoyama Gakuin University, Tokyo (Japan). Faculty of Science and Engineering

    1999-06-15

    With the aim of studying the fracture dynamics of environmentally assisted fractures in thin plates, we developed a new source simulation method of the zeroth-order symmetric (or S{sub 0}-) Lamb wave using the experimental overall-transfer function of the system. The transfer function was determined by the time-domain deconvolution of detected S{sub 0}-Lamb component by the artificial fracture source of a compression -type PZT element whose vibration kinetics was estimated by the iteration so that the S{sub o}-waveform detected. Hydrogen induced blistering was found to be caused by the succession of fast Mode-I fracture with source rise times from 0.6 to 1.0{mu}s. The crack volume estimated by the source simulation corresponded to that of fine blistering with an opening displacement of 5{mu}m. As the estimated fracture kinetics of hydrogen blistering coincide with those of delayed fracture of high tension low alloy steel under tensile loading, the kinetics of first and micro-fractures and blistering induced by hydrogen gas precipitation appears to be independent on the hydrogen solubility and strength of steels, the applied stresses and the orientation of cracks. (author)

  2. Self-inhibiting growth of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langen, Peter Lang; Solgaard, Anne Munck; Hvidberg, Christine Schøtt

    2012-01-01

    The build-up of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from ice-free conditions is studied in an ice sheet model (ISM) driven by fields from an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) to demonstrate the importance of coupling between the two components. Experiments where the two are coupled off-line...... are augmented by one where an intermediate ice sheet configuration is coupled back to the GCM. Forcing the ISM with GCM fields corresponding to the ice-free state leads to extensive regrowth which, however, is halted when the intermediate recoupling step is included. This inhibition of further growth is due...... to a Föhn effect of moist air parcels being lifted over the intermediate ice sheet and arriving in the low-lying Greenland interior with high temperatures. This demonstrates that two-way coupling between the atmosphere and the ice sheet is essential for understanding the dynamics and that large scale...

  3. Vegetation, climate and fire-dynamics in East Africa inferred from the Maundi crater pollen record from Mt Kilimanjaro during the last glacial-interglacial cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüler, Lisa; Hemp, Andreas; Zech, Wolfgang; Behling, Hermann

    2012-04-01

    The pollen, charcoal and sedimentological record from the Maundi crater, located at 2780 m elevation on the south-eastern slope of Mt Kilimanjaro, is one of the longest terrestrial records in equatorial East Africa, giving an interesting insight into the vegetation and climate dynamics back to the early last Glacial period. Our sediment record has a reliable chronology until 42 ka BP. An extrapolation of the age-depth model, as well as matching with other palaeo-records from tropical East Africa, suggest a total age of about 90 ka BP at the bottom of the record. During the last Glacial the distribution as well as the composition of the vegetation belts classified as colline savanna, submontane woodland, montane forest, ericaceous belt, and alpine vegetation changed. The early last Glacial is characterized by high amounts of Poaceae and Asteraceae pollen suggesting a climatically dry but stable phase. Based on the absence of pollen grains in samples deposited around 70 ka BP, we assume the occurrence of distinct drought periods. During the pre-LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) a higher taxa diversity of the ericaceous and montane zone is recorded and suggests a spread of forest and shrub vegetation, thus indicating a more humid period. The taxa diversity increases steadily during the recorded time span. The decent of vegetation zones indicate dry and cold conditions during the LGM and seem to have been detrimental for many taxa, especially those of the forest vegetation; however, the early last Glacial seems to have been markedly drier than the LGM. The reappearance of most of the taxa (most importantly Alchemilla, Araliaceae, Dodonea, Hagenia, Ilex, Myrsine, Moraceae, Piperaceae) during the deglacial and Holocene period suggest a shift into humid conditions. An increase in ferns and the decrease in grasses during the Holocene also indicate increasing humidity. Fire played an important role in controlling the development and elevation of the ericaceous zone and the tree

  4. Magnetosphere dynamics during the 14 November 2012 storm inferred from TWINS, AMPERE, Van Allen Probes, and BATS-R-US-CRCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzulukova, Natalia; Goldstein, Jerry; Fok, Mei-Ching; Glocer, Alex; Valek, Phil; McComas, David; Korth, Haje; Anderson, Brian

    2018-01-01

    During the 14 November 2012 geomagnetic storm, the Van Allen Probes spacecraft observed a number of sharp decreases (dropouts) in particle fluxes for ions and electrons of different energies. In this paper, we investigate the global magnetosphere dynamics and magnetosphere-ionosphere (M-I) coupling during the dropout events using multipoint measurements by Van Allen Probes, TWINS, and AMPERE together with the output of the two-way coupled global BATS-R-US-CRCM model. We find different behavior for two pairs of dropouts. For one pair, the same pattern was repeated: (1) weak nightside Region 1 and 2 Birkeland currents before and during the dropout; (2) intensification of Region 2 currents after the dropout; and (3) a particle injection detected by TWINS after the dropout. The model predicted similar behavior of Birkeland currents. TWINS low-altitude emissions demonstrated high variability during these intervals, indicating high geomagnetic activity in the near-Earth tail region. For the second pair of dropouts, the structure of both Birkeland currents and ENA emissions was relatively stable. The model also showed quasi-stationary behavior of Birkeland currents and simulated ENA emissions with gradual ring current buildup. We confirm that the first pair of dropouts was caused by large-scale motions of the OCB (open-closed boundary) during substorm activity. We show the new result that this OCB motion was associated with global changes in Birkeland (M-I coupling) currents and strong modulation of low-altitude ion precipitation. The second pair of dropouts is the result of smaller OCB disturbances not related to magnetospheric substorms. The local observations of the first pair of dropouts result from a global magnetospheric reconfiguration, which is manifested by ion injections and enhanced ion precipitation detected by TWINS and changes in the structure of Birkeland currents detected by AMPERE. This study demonstrates that multipoint measurements along with the global

  5. Long-term vegetation, climate and ocean dynamics inferred from a 73,500 years old marine sediment core (GeoB2107-3) off southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Fang; Zonneveld, Karin A. F.; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; Arz, Helge W.; Pätzold, Jürgen; Behling, Hermann

    2017-09-01

    Long-term changes in vegetation and climate of southern Brazil, as well as ocean dynamics of the adjacent South Atlantic, were studied by analyses of pollen, spores and organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts) in marine sediment core GeoB2107-3 collected offshore southern Brazil covering the last 73.5 cal kyr BP. The pollen record indicates that grasslands were much more frequent in the landscapes of southern Brazil during the last glacial period if compared to the late Holocene, reflecting relatively colder and/or less humid climatic conditions. Patches of forest occurred in the lowlands and probably also on the exposed continental shelf that was mainly covered by salt marshes. Interestingly, drought-susceptible Araucaria trees were frequent in the highlands (with a similar abundance as during the late Holocene) until 65 cal kyr BP, but were rare during the following glacial period. Atlantic rainforest was present in the northern lowlands of southern Brazil during the recorded last glacial period, but was strongly reduced from 38.5 until 13.0 cal kyr BP. The reduction was probably controlled by colder and/or less humid climatic conditions. Atlantic rainforest expanded to the south since the Lateglacial period, while Araucaria forests advanced in the highlands only during the late Holocene. Dinocysts data indicate that the Brazil Current (BC) with its warm, salty and nutrient-poor waters influenced the study area throughout the investigated period. However, variations in the proportion of dinocyst taxa indicating an eutrophic environment reflect the input of nutrients transported mainly by the Brazilian Coastal Current (BCC) and partly discharged by the Rio Itajaí (the major river closest to the core site). This was strongly related to changes in sea level. A stronger influence of the BCC with nutrient rich waters occurred during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 and in particular during the late MIS 3 and MIS 2 under low sea level. Evidence of Nothofagus pollen

  6. A formal model of interpersonal inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael eMoutoussis

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: We propose that active Bayesian inference – a general framework for decision-making – can equally be applied to interpersonal exchanges. Social cognition, however, entails special challenges. We address these challenges through a novel formulation of a formal model and demonstrate its psychological significance. Method: We review relevant literature, especially with regards to interpersonal representations, formulate a mathematical model and present a simulation study. The model accommodates normative models from utility theory and places them within the broader setting of Bayesian inference. Crucially, we endow people's prior beliefs, into which utilities are absorbed, with preferences of self and others. The simulation illustrates the model's dynamics and furnishes elementary predictions of the theory. Results: 1. Because beliefs about self and others inform both the desirability and plausibility of outcomes, in this framework interpersonal representations become beliefs that have to be actively inferred. This inference, akin to 'mentalising' in the psychological literature, is based upon the outcomes of interpersonal exchanges. 2. We show how some well-known social-psychological phenomena (e.g. self-serving biases can be explained in terms of active interpersonal inference. 3. Mentalising naturally entails Bayesian updating of how people value social outcomes. Crucially this includes inference about one’s own qualities and preferences. Conclusion: We inaugurate a Bayes optimal framework for modelling intersubject variability in mentalising during interpersonal exchanges. Here, interpersonal representations are endowed with explicit functional and affective properties. We suggest the active inference framework lends itself to the study of psychiatric conditions where mentalising is distorted.

  7. Inference rule and problem solving

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goto, S

    1982-04-01

    Intelligent information processing signifies an opportunity of having man's intellectual activity executed on the computer, in which inference, in place of ordinary calculation, is used as the basic operational mechanism for such an information processing. Many inference rules are derived from syllogisms in formal logic. The problem of programming this inference function is referred to as a problem solving. Although logically inference and problem-solving are in close relation, the calculation ability of current computers is on a low level for inferring. For clarifying the relation between inference and computers, nonmonotonic logic has been considered. The paper deals with the above topics. 16 references.

  8. Modelling hourly dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) using dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system (DENFIS)-based approach: case study of Klamath River at Miller Island Boat Ramp, OR, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heddam, Salim

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we present application of an artificial intelligence (AI) technique model called dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system (DENFIS) based on an evolving clustering method (ECM), for modelling dissolved oxygen concentration in a river. To demonstrate the forecasting capability of DENFIS, a one year period from 1 January 2009 to 30 December 2009, of hourly experimental water quality data collected by the United States Geological Survey (USGS Station No: 420853121505500) station at Klamath River at Miller Island Boat Ramp, OR, USA, were used for model development. Two DENFIS-based models are presented and compared. The two DENFIS systems are: (1) offline-based system named DENFIS-OF, and (2) online-based system, named DENFIS-ON. The input variables used for the two models are water pH, temperature, specific conductance, and sensor depth. The performances of the models are evaluated using root mean square errors (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Willmott index of agreement (d) and correlation coefficient (CC) statistics. The lowest root mean square error and highest correlation coefficient values were obtained with the DENFIS-ON method. The results obtained with DENFIS models are compared with linear (multiple linear regression, MLR) and nonlinear (multi-layer perceptron neural networks, MLPNN) methods. This study demonstrates that DENFIS-ON investigated herein outperforms all the proposed techniques for DO modelling.

  9. Film sheet cassette

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    A novel film sheet cassette is described for handling CAT photographic films under daylight conditions and facilitating their imaging. A detailed description of the design and operation of the cassette is given together with appropriate illustrations. The resulting cassette is a low-cost unit which is easily constructed and yet provides a sure light-tight seal for the interior contents of the cassette. The individual resilient fingers on the light-trap permit the ready removal of the slide plate for taking pictures. The stippled, non-electrostatic surface of the pressure plate ensures an air layer and free slidability of the film for removal and withdrawal of the film sheet. The advantage of the daylight system is that a darkroom need not be used for inserting and removing the film in and out of the cassette resulting in a considerable time saving. (U.K.)

  10. Clean Cities Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2004-01-01

    This fact sheet explains the Clean Cities Program and provides contact information for all coalitions and regional offices. It answers key questions such as: What is the Clean Cities Program? What are alternative fuels? How does the Clean Cities Program work? What sort of assistance does Clean Cities offer? What has Clean Cities accomplished? What is Clean Cities International? and Where can I find more information?

  11. Information sheets on energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    These sheets, presented by the Cea, bring some information, in the energy domain, on the following topics: the world energy demand and the energy policy in France and in Europe, the part of the nuclear power in the energy of the future, the greenhouse gases emissions and the fight against the greenhouse effect, the carbon dioxide storage cost and the hydrogen economy. (A.L.B.)

  12. Biomolecular Science (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-04-01

    A brief fact sheet about NREL Photobiology and Biomolecular Science. The research goal of NREL's Biomolecular Science is to enable cost-competitive advanced lignocellulosic biofuels production by understanding the science critical for overcoming biomass recalcitrance and developing new product and product intermediate pathways. NREL's Photobiology focuses on understanding the capture of solar energy in photosynthetic systems and its use in converting carbon dioxide and water directly into hydrogen and advanced biofuels.

  13. Bayesian Inversion for Large Scale Antarctic Ice Sheet Flow

    KAUST Repository

    Ghattas, Omar

    2015-01-07

    The flow of ice from the interior of polar ice sheets is the primary contributor to projected sea level rise. One of the main difficulties faced in modeling ice sheet flow is the uncertain spatially-varying Robin boundary condition that describes the resistance to sliding at the base of the ice. Satellite observations of the surface ice flow velocity, along with a model of ice as a creeping incompressible shear-thinning fluid, can be used to infer this uncertain basal boundary condition. We cast this ill-posed inverse problem in the framework of Bayesian inference, which allows us to infer not only the basal sliding parameters, but also the associated uncertainty. To overcome the prohibitive nature of Bayesian methods for large-scale inverse problems, we exploit the fact that, despite the large size of observational data, they typically provide only sparse information on model parameters. We show results for Bayesian inversion of the basal sliding parameter field for the full Antarctic continent, and demonstrate that the work required to solve the inverse problem, measured in number of forward (and adjoint) ice sheet model solves, is independent of the parameter and data dimensions

  14. Bayesian Inversion for Large Scale Antarctic Ice Sheet Flow

    KAUST Repository

    Ghattas, Omar

    2015-01-01

    The flow of ice from the interior of polar ice sheets is the primary contributor to projected sea level rise. One of the main difficulties faced in modeling ice sheet flow is the uncertain spatially-varying Robin boundary condition that describes the resistance to sliding at the base of the ice. Satellite observations of the surface ice flow velocity, along with a model of ice as a creeping incompressible shear-thinning fluid, can be used to infer this uncertain basal boundary condition. We cast this ill-posed inverse problem in the framework of Bayesian inference, which allows us to infer not only the basal sliding parameters, but also the associated uncertainty. To overcome the prohibitive nature of Bayesian methods for large-scale inverse problems, we exploit the fact that, despite the large size of observational data, they typically provide only sparse information on model parameters. We show results for Bayesian inversion of the basal sliding parameter field for the full Antarctic continent, and demonstrate that the work required to solve the inverse problem, measured in number of forward (and adjoint) ice sheet model solves, is independent of the parameter and data dimensions

  15. Sheet pinch devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, O.A.; Baker, W.R.; Ise, J. Jr.; Kunkel, W.B.; Pyle, R.V.; Stone, J.M.

    1958-01-01

    Three types of sheet-like discharges are being studied at Berkeley. The first of these, which has been given the name 'Triax', consists of a cylindrical plasma sleeve contained between two coaxial conducting cylinders A theoretical analysis of the stability of the cylindrical sheet plasma predicts the existence of a 'sausage-mode' instability which is, however, expected to grow more slowly than in the case of the unstabilized linear pinch (by the ratio of the radial dimensions). The second pinch device employs a disk shaped discharge with radial current guided between flat metal plates, this configuration being identical to that of the flat hydromagnetic capacitor without external magnetic field. A significant feature of these configurations is the absence of a plasma edge, i.e., there are no regions of sharply curved magnetic field lines anywhere in these discharges. The importance of this fact for stability is not yet fully investigated theoretically. As a third configuration a rectangular, flat pinch tube has been constructed, and the behaviour of a flat plasma sheet with edges is being studied experimentally

  16. Stochastic processes inference theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Malempati M

    2014-01-01

    This is the revised and enlarged 2nd edition of the authors’ original text, which was intended to be a modest complement to Grenander's fundamental memoir on stochastic processes and related inference theory. The present volume gives a substantial account of regression analysis, both for stochastic processes and measures, and includes recent material on Ridge regression with some unexpected applications, for example in econometrics. The first three chapters can be used for a quarter or semester graduate course on inference on stochastic processes. The remaining chapters provide more advanced material on stochastic analysis suitable for graduate seminars and discussions, leading to dissertation or research work. In general, the book will be of interest to researchers in probability theory, mathematical statistics and electrical and information theory.

  17. Making Type Inference Practical

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Oxhøj, Nicholas; Palsberg, Jens

    1992-01-01

    We present the implementation of a type inference algorithm for untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. The algorithm significantly improves our previous one, presented at OOPSLA'91, since it can handle collection classes, such as List, in a useful way. Abo......, the complexity has been dramatically improved, from exponential time to low polynomial time. The implementation uses the techniques of incremental graph construction and constraint template instantiation to avoid representing intermediate results, doing superfluous work, and recomputing type information....... Experiments indicate that the implementation type checks as much as 100 lines pr. second. This results in a mature product, on which a number of tools can be based, for example a safety tool, an image compression tool, a code optimization tool, and an annotation tool. This may make type inference for object...

  18. Russell and Humean Inferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Paulo Monteiro

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available Russell's The Problems of Philosophy tries to establish a new theory of induction, at the same time that Hume is there accused of an irrational/ scepticism about induction". But a careful analysis of the theory of knowledge explicitly acknowledged by Hume reveals that, contrary to the standard interpretation in the XXth century, possibly influenced by Russell, Hume deals exclusively with causal inference (which he never classifies as "causal induction", although now we are entitled to do so, never with inductive inference in general, mainly generalizations about sensible qualities of objects ( whether, e.g., "all crows are black" or not is not among Hume's concerns. Russell's theories are thus only false alternatives to Hume's, in (1912 or in his (1948.

  19. Causal inference in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

  20. MHD Ballooning Instability in the Plasma Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, C.Z.; Zaharia, S.

    2003-01-01

    Based on the ideal-MHD model the stability of ballooning modes is investigated by employing realistic 3D magnetospheric equilibria, in particular for the substorm growth phase. Previous MHD ballooning stability calculations making use of approximations on the plasma compressibility can give rise to erroneous conclusions. Our results show that without making approximations on the plasma compressibility the MHD ballooning modes are unstable for the entire plasma sheet where beta (sub)eq is greater than or equal to 1, and the most unstable modes are located in the strong cross-tail current sheet region in the near-Earth plasma sheet, which maps to the initial brightening location of the breakup arc in the ionosphere. However, the MHD beq threshold is too low in comparison with observations by AMPTE/CCE at X = -(8 - 9)R(sub)E, which show that a low-frequency instability is excited only when beq increases over 50. The difficulty is mitigated by considering the kinetic effects of ion gyrorad ii and trapped electron dynamics, which can greatly increase the stabilizing effects of field line tension and thus enhance the beta(sub)eq threshold [Cheng and Lui, 1998]. The consequence is to reduce the equatorial region of the unstable ballooning modes to the strong cross-tail current sheet region where the free energy associated with the plasma pressure gradient and magnetic field curvature is maximum

  1. Active inference and learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl; FitzGerald, Thomas; Rigoli, Francesco; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; O Doherty, John; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2016-09-01

    This paper offers an active inference account of choice behaviour and learning. It focuses on the distinction between goal-directed and habitual behaviour and how they contextualise each other. We show that habits emerge naturally (and autodidactically) from sequential policy optimisation when agents are equipped with state-action policies. In active inference, behaviour has explorative (epistemic) and exploitative (pragmatic) aspects that are sensitive to ambiguity and risk respectively, where epistemic (ambiguity-resolving) behaviour enables pragmatic (reward-seeking) behaviour and the subsequent emergence of habits. Although goal-directed and habitual policies are usually associated with model-based and model-free schemes, we find the more important distinction is between belief-free and belief-based schemes. The underlying (variational) belief updating provides a comprehensive (if metaphorical) process theory for several phenomena, including the transfer of dopamine responses, reversal learning, habit formation and devaluation. Finally, we show that active inference reduces to a classical (Bellman) scheme, in the absence of ambiguity. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Learning Convex Inference of Marginals

    OpenAIRE

    Domke, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Graphical models trained using maximum likelihood are a common tool for probabilistic inference of marginal distributions. However, this approach suffers difficulties when either the inference process or the model is approximate. In this paper, the inference process is first defined to be the minimization of a convex function, inspired by free energy approximations. Learning is then done directly in terms of the performance of the inference process at univariate marginal prediction. The main ...

  3. Probabilistic inductive inference: a survey

    OpenAIRE

    Ambainis, Andris

    2001-01-01

    Inductive inference is a recursion-theoretic theory of learning, first developed by E. M. Gold (1967). This paper surveys developments in probabilistic inductive inference. We mainly focus on finite inference of recursive functions, since this simple paradigm has produced the most interesting (and most complex) results.

  4. Multimodel inference and adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehme, S.E.; Powell, L.A.; Allen, Craig R.

    2011-01-01

    Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

  5. Dense sheet Z-pinches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tetsu, Miyamoto

    1999-01-01

    The steady state and quasi-steady processes of infinite- and finite-width sheet z-pinches are studied. The relations corresponding to the Bennett relation and Pease-Braginskii current of cylindrical fiber z-pinches depend on a geometrical factor in the sheet z-pinches. The finite-width sheet z-pinch is approximated by a segment of infinite-width sheet z-pinch, if it is wide enough, and corresponds to a number of (width/thickness) times fiber z-pinch plasmas of the diameter that equals the sheet thickness. If the sheet current equals this number times the fiber current, the plasma created in the sheet z-pinches is as dense as in the fiber z-pinches. The total energy of plasma and magnetic field per unit mass is approximately equal in both pinches. Quasi-static transient processes are different in several aspects from the fiber z-pinch. No radiation collapse occurs in the sheet z-pinch. The stability is improved in the sheet z-pinches. The fusion criterions and the experimental arrangements to produce the sheet z-pinches are also discussed. (author)

  6. Reinforcement learning or active inference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl J; Daunizeau, Jean; Kiebel, Stefan J

    2009-07-29

    This paper questions the need for reinforcement learning or control theory when optimising behaviour. We show that it is fairly simple to teach an agent complicated and adaptive behaviours using a free-energy formulation of perception. In this formulation, agents adjust their internal states and sampling of the environment to minimize their free-energy. Such agents learn causal structure in the environment and sample it in an adaptive and self-supervised fashion. This results in behavioural policies that reproduce those optimised by reinforcement learning and dynamic programming. Critically, we do not need to invoke the notion of reward, value or utility. We illustrate these points by solving a benchmark problem in dynamic programming; namely the mountain-car problem, using active perception or inference under the free-energy principle. The ensuing proof-of-concept may be important because the free-energy formulation furnishes a unified account of both action and perception and may speak to a reappraisal of the role of dopamine in the brain.

  7. Reinforcement learning or active inference?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl J Friston

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper questions the need for reinforcement learning or control theory when optimising behaviour. We show that it is fairly simple to teach an agent complicated and adaptive behaviours using a free-energy formulation of perception. In this formulation, agents adjust their internal states and sampling of the environment to minimize their free-energy. Such agents learn causal structure in the environment and sample it in an adaptive and self-supervised fashion. This results in behavioural policies that reproduce those optimised by reinforcement learning and dynamic programming. Critically, we do not need to invoke the notion of reward, value or utility. We illustrate these points by solving a benchmark problem in dynamic programming; namely the mountain-car problem, using active perception or inference under the free-energy principle. The ensuing proof-of-concept may be important because the free-energy formulation furnishes a unified account of both action and perception and may speak to a reappraisal of the role of dopamine in the brain.

  8. Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingham, D J; Shepherd, A; Muir, A; Marshall, G J

    2006-07-15

    The Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise has long been uncertain. While regional variability in ice dynamics has been revealed, a picture of mass changes throughout the continental ice sheet is lacking. Here, we use satellite radar altimetry to measure the elevation change of 72% of the grounded ice sheet during the period 1992-2003. Depending on the density of the snow giving rise to the observed elevation fluctuations, the ice sheet mass trend falls in the range -5-+85Gtyr-1. We find that data from climate model reanalyses are not able to characterise the contemporary snowfall fluctuation with useful accuracy and our best estimate of the overall mass trend-growth of 27+/-29Gtyr-1-is based on an assessment of the expected snowfall variability. Mass gains from accumulating snow, particularly on the Antarctic Peninsula and within East Antarctica, exceed the ice dynamic mass loss from West Antarctica. The result exacerbates the difficulty of explaining twentieth century sea-level rise.

  9. Nonparametric statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Gibbons, Jean Dickinson

    2010-01-01

    Overall, this remains a very fine book suitable for a graduate-level course in nonparametric statistics. I recommend it for all people interested in learning the basic ideas of nonparametric statistical inference.-Eugenia Stoimenova, Journal of Applied Statistics, June 2012… one of the best books available for a graduate (or advanced undergraduate) text for a theory course on nonparametric statistics. … a very well-written and organized book on nonparametric statistics, especially useful and recommended for teachers and graduate students.-Biometrics, 67, September 2011This excellently presente

  10. Emotional inferences by pragmatics

    OpenAIRE

    Iza-Miqueleiz, Mauricio

    2017-01-01

    It has for long been taken for granted that, along the course of reading a text, world knowledge is often required in order to establish coherent links between sentences (McKoon & Ratcliff 1992, Iza & Ezquerro 2000). The content grasped from a text turns out to be strongly dependent upon the reader’s additional knowledge that allows a coherent interpretation of the text as a whole. The world knowledge directing the inference may be of distinctive nature. Gygax et al. (2007) showed that m...

  11. Generic patch inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper; Lawall, Julia

    2010-01-01

    A key issue in maintaining Linux device drivers is the need to keep them up to date with respect to evolutions in Linux internal libraries. Currently, there is little tool support for performing and documenting such changes. In this paper we present a tool, spdiff, that identifies common changes...... developers can use it to extract an abstract representation of the set of changes that others have made. Our experiments on recent changes in Linux show that the inferred generic patches are more concise than the corresponding patches found in commits to the Linux source tree while being safe with respect...

  12. Experiments on sheet metal shearing

    OpenAIRE

    Gustafsson, Emil

    2013-01-01

    Within the sheet metal industry, different shear cutting technologies are commonly used in several processing steps, e.g. in cut to length lines, slitting lines, end cropping etc. Shearing has speed and cost advantages over competing cutting methods like laser and plasma cutting, but involves large forces on the equipment and large strains in the sheet material.Numerical models to predict forces and sheared edge geometry for different sheet metal grades and different shear parameter set-ups a...

  13. The state of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Sebastian Bjerregaard

    Firn is defined as snow that has survived a melt season and provides the link between the high-frequency variability of the atmosphere to the ”slower” reacting ice sheet.In this thesis, firn is described by a theoretical and statistical approach to accommodate the variability in observed firn...... compaction on ice sheet scales. The modeling objectives are multiple and aim at estimating the contribution from the firn to the observed volume change of the GrIS and to the diffusion of stable water isotopes. The firn modeling then provides crucial information on total mass balance of the Gr......IS and the paleo-temperature reconstructions retrieved from ice cores.The dynamical firn model developed in this thesis explains13 % of the observed volume change of the GrIS from 2003-2008, without contributing to the global sea-level rise. This emphasizes the need for well constraint firn-compaction models. Here...

  14. Impact processes, permafrost dynamics, and climate and environmental variability in the terrestrial Arctic as inferred from the unique 3.6 Myr record of Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russia - A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wennrich, Volker; Andreev, Andrei A.; Tarasov, Pavel E.; Fedorov, Grigory; Zhao, Wenwei; Gebhardt, Catalina A.; Meyer-Jacob, Carsten; Snyder, Jeffrey A.; Nowaczyk, Norbert R.; Schwamborn, Georg; Chapligin, Bernhard; Anderson, Patricia M.; Lozhkin, Anatoly V.; Minyuk, Pavel S.; Koeberl, Christian; Melles, Martin

    2016-09-01

    Lake El'gygytgyn in Far East Russia is a 3.6 Myr old impact crater lake. Located in an area that has never been affected by Cenozoic glaciations nor desiccation, the unique sediment record of the lake represents the longest continuous sediment archive of the terrestrial Arctic. The surrounding crater is the only impact structure on Earth developed in mostly acid volcanic rocks. Recent studies on the impactite, permafrost, and sediment sequences recovered within the framework of the ICDP "El'gygytgyn Drilling Project" and multiple pre-site surveys yielded new insight into the bedrock origin and cratering processes as well as permafrost dynamics and the climate and environmental history of the terrestrial Arctic back to the mid-Pliocene. Results from the impact rock section recovered during the deep drilling clearly confirm the impact genesis of the El'gygytgyn crater, but indicate an only very reduced fallback impactite sequence without larger coherent melt bodies. Isotope and element data of impact melt samples indicate a F-type asteroid of mixed composition or an ordinary chondrite as the likely impactor. The impact event caused a long-lasting hydrothermal activity in the crater that is assumed to have persisted for c. 300 kyr. Geochemical and microbial analyses of the permafrost core indicate a subaquatic formation of the lower part during lake-level highstand, but a subaerial genesis of the upper part after a lake-level drop after the Allerød. The isotope signal and ion compositions of ground ice is overprinted by several thaw-freeze cycles due to variations in the talik underneath the lake. Modeling results suggest a modern permafrost thickness in the crater of c. 340 m, and further confirm a pervasive character of the talik below Lake El'gygytgyn. The lake sediment sequences shed new leight into the Pliocene and Pleistocene climate and environmental evolution of the Arctic. During the mid-Pliocene, significantly warmer and wetter climatic conditions in

  15. Grounding line transient response in marine ice sheet models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Drouet

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Marine ice-sheet stability is mostly controlled by the dynamics of the grounding line, i.e. the junction between the grounded ice sheet and the floating ice shelf. Grounding line migration has been investigated within the framework of MISMIP (Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, which mainly aimed at investigating steady state solutions. Here we focus on transient behaviour, executing short-term simulations (200 yr of a steady ice sheet perturbed by the release of the buttressing restraint exerted by the ice shelf on the grounded ice upstream. The transient grounding line behaviour of four different flowline ice-sheet models has been compared. The models differ in the physics implemented (full Stokes and shallow shelf approximation, the numerical approach, as well as the grounding line treatment. Their overall response to the loss of buttressing is found to be broadly consistent in terms of grounding line position, rate of surface elevation change and surface velocity. However, still small differences appear for these latter variables, and they can lead to large discrepancies (> 100% observed in terms of ice sheet contribution to sea level when cumulated over time. Despite the recent important improvements of marine ice-sheet models in their ability to compute steady state configurations, our results question the capacity of these models to compute short-term reliable sea-level rise projections.

  16. Inverse Ising inference with correlated samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obermayer, Benedikt; Levine, Erel

    2014-01-01

    Correlations between two variables of a high-dimensional system can be indicative of an underlying interaction, but can also result from indirect effects. Inverse Ising inference is a method to distinguish one from the other. Essentially, the parameters of the least constrained statistical model are learned from the observed correlations such that direct interactions can be separated from indirect correlations. Among many other applications, this approach has been helpful for protein structure prediction, because residues which interact in the 3D structure often show correlated substitutions in a multiple sequence alignment. In this context, samples used for inference are not independent but share an evolutionary history on a phylogenetic tree. Here, we discuss the effects of correlations between samples on global inference. Such correlations could arise due to phylogeny but also via other slow dynamical processes. We present a simple analytical model to address the resulting inference biases, and develop an exact method accounting for background correlations in alignment data by combining phylogenetic modeling with an adaptive cluster expansion algorithm. We find that popular reweighting schemes are only marginally effective at removing phylogenetic bias, suggest a rescaling strategy that yields better results, and provide evidence that our conclusions carry over to the frequently used mean-field approach to the inverse Ising problem. (paper)

  17. The importance of learning when making inferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorg Rieskamp

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that people possess a repertoire of strategies to solve the inference problems they face has been made repeatedly. The experimental findings of two previous studies on strategy selection are reexamined from a learning perspective, which argues that people learn to select strategies for making probabilistic inferences. This learning process is modeled with the strategy selection learning (SSL theory, which assumes that people develop subjective expectancies for the strategies they have. They select strategies proportional to their expectancies, which are updated on the basis of experience. For the study by Newell, Weston, and Shanks (2003 it can be shown that people did not anticipate the success of a strategy from the beginning of the experiment. Instead, the behavior observed at the end of the experiment was the result of a learning process that can be described by the SSL theory. For the second study, by Br"oder and Schiffer (2006, the SSL theory is able to provide an explanation for why participants only slowly adapted to new environments in a dynamic inference situation. The reanalysis of the previous studies illustrates the importance of learning for probabilistic inferences.

  18. Radiation dominated relativistic current sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaroschek, C.H.

    2008-01-01

    Relativistic Current Sheets (RCS) feature plasma instabilities considered as potential key to magnetic energy dissipation and non-thermal particle generation in Poynting flux dominated plasma flows. We show in a series of kinetic plasma simulations that the physical nature of non-linear RCS evolution changes in the presence of incoherent radiation losses: In the ultra-relativistic regime (i.e. magnetization parameter sigma = 104 defined as the ratio of magnetic to plasma rest frame energy density) the combination of non-linear RCS dynamics and synchrotron emission introduces a temperature anisotropy triggering the growth of the Relativistic Tearing Mode (RTM). As direct consequence the RTM prevails over the Relativistic Drift Kink (RDK) Mode as competitive RCS instability. This is in contrast to the previously studied situation of weakly relativistic RCS (sigma ∼ 1) where the RDK is dominant and most of the plasma is thermalized. The simulations witness the typical life cycle of ultra-relativistic RCS evolving from a violent radiation induced collapse towards a radiation quiescent state in rather classical Sweet-Parker topology. Such a transition towards Sweet-Parker configuration in the late non-linear evolution has immediate consequences for the efficiency of magnetic energy dissipation and non-thermal particle generation. Ceasing dissipation rates directly affect our present understanding of non-linear RCS evolution in conventional striped wind scenarios. (author)

  19. Nonparaxial Bessel and Bessel-Gauss pincers light-sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitri, F. G.

    2017-01-01

    Nonparaxial optical Bessel and Bessel-Gauss pincers optical-sheets are introduced based upon the angular spectrum decomposition in plane waves. The angular spectrum function and the beam-shape coefficients are expressed by means of improper integrals computed numerically. The radiated component of the electric field is also evaluated, displaying unique features of the nonparaxial Bessel pincers light-sheets. This new type of auto-focusing light-sheets finds potential applications in the development of novel methods in optical light-sheet tweezers for particle manipulation in opto-fluidics, particle sizing and imaging. Numerical predictions for the scattering, radiation force and torque, and particle dynamics also benefit from the developed beam solution.

  20. Estimating the future ice sheet hydropower potential in Paakitsoq, Ilulissat, West Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Mottram, R.H.; Nielsen, C.

    2008-01-01

    sheet has emphasized the risk of sudden changes in catchment supply. In this study, we present a thorough investigation of hydropower feasibility at the Paakitsoq basin, near Ilulissat in West Greenland. The catchment is completely dominated by the Greenland ice sheet which provides large quantities...... of meltwater during the summer season. However, geometrical changes in the ice sheet, for example due to a retreat or an advance of the ice sheet margin, could change the hydrological catchment within the ice sheet. Such a change would have a devastating economical impact as a hydropower plant is a significant...... long-term investment for an Arctic community of modest population. Here we present a new bedrock and surface map of the Paakitsoq/Swiss Camp part of the Greenland ice sheet and a prediction of the future discharge up to 2080 AD using regional climate model output, dynamic ice sheet modelling...

  1. Soft Costs Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-05-01

    This fact sheet is an overview of the systems integration subprogram at the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative. Soft costs can vary significantly as a result of a fragmented energy marketplace. In the U.S., there are 18,000 jurisdictions and 3,000 utilities with different rules and regulations for how to go solar. The same solar equipment may vary widely in its final installation price due to process and market variations across jurisdictions, creating barriers to rapid industry growth. SunShot supports the development of innovative solutions that enable communities to build their local economies and establish clean energy initiatives that meet their needs, while at the same time creating sustainable solar market conditions.

  2. Photovoltaics Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-02-01

    This fact sheet is an overview of the Photovoltaics (PV) subprogram at the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Solar Energy Technologies Office works with industry, academia, national laboratories, and other government agencies to advance solar PV, which is the direct conversion of sunlight into electricity by a semiconductor, in support of the goals of the SunShot Initiative. SunShot supports research and development to aggressively advance PV technology by improving efficiency and reliability and lowering manufacturing costs. SunShot’s PV portfolio spans work from early-stage solar cell research through technology commercialization, including work on materials, processes, and device structure and characterization techniques.

  3. Systems Integration Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-06-01

    This fact sheet is an overview of the Systems Integration subprogram at the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative. The Systems Integration subprogram enables the widespread deployment of safe, reliable, and cost-effective solar energy technologies by addressing the associated technical and non-technical challenges. These include timely and cost-effective interconnection procedures, optimal system planning, accurate prediction of solar resources, monitoring and control of solar power, maintaining grid reliability and stability, and many more. To address the challenges associated with interconnecting and integrating hundreds of gigawatts of solar power onto the electricity grid, the Systems Integration program funds research, development, and demonstration projects in four broad, interrelated focus areas: grid performance and reliability, dispatchability, power electronics, and communications.

  4. Hyperspectral light sheet microscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahr, Wiebke; Schmid, Benjamin; Schmied, Christopher; Fahrbach, Florian O.; Huisken, Jan

    2015-09-01

    To study the development and interactions of cells and tissues, multiple fluorescent markers need to be imaged efficiently in a single living organism. Instead of acquiring individual colours sequentially with filters, we created a platform based on line-scanning light sheet microscopy to record the entire spectrum for each pixel in a three-dimensional volume. We evaluated data sets with varying spectral sampling and determined the optimal channel width to be around 5 nm. With the help of these data sets, we show that our setup outperforms filter-based approaches with regard to image quality and discrimination of fluorophores. By spectral unmixing we resolved overlapping fluorophores with up to nanometre resolution and removed autofluorescence in zebrafish and fruit fly embryos.

  5. An algebra-based method for inferring gene regulatory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vera-Licona, Paola; Jarrah, Abdul; Garcia-Puente, Luis David; McGee, John; Laubenbacher, Reinhard

    2014-03-26

    The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental observations is at the heart of systems biology. This includes the inference of both the network topology and its dynamics. While there are many algorithms available to infer the network topology from experimental data, less emphasis has been placed on methods that infer network dynamics. Furthermore, since the network inference problem is typically underdetermined, it is essential to have the option of incorporating into the inference process, prior knowledge about the network, along with an effective description of the search space of dynamic models. Finally, it is also important to have an understanding of how a given inference method is affected by experimental and other noise in the data used. This paper contains a novel inference algorithm using the algebraic framework of Boolean polynomial dynamical systems (BPDS), meeting all these requirements. The algorithm takes as input time series data, including those from network perturbations, such as knock-out mutant strains and RNAi experiments. It allows for the incorporation of prior biological knowledge while being robust to significant levels of noise in the data used for inference. It uses an evolutionary algorithm for local optimization with an encoding of the mathematical models as BPDS. The BPDS framework allows an effective representation of the search space for algebraic dynamic models that improves computational performance. The algorithm is validated with both simulated and experimental microarray expression profile data. Robustness to noise is tested using a published mathematical model of the segment polarity gene network in Drosophila melanogaster. Benchmarking of the algorithm is done by comparison with a spectrum of state-of-the-art network inference methods on data from the synthetic IRMA network to demonstrate that our method has good precision and recall for the network reconstruction task, while also predicting several of the

  6. Inference of a Nonlinear Stochastic Model of the Cardiorespiratory Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smelyanskiy, V. N.; Luchinsky, D. G.; Stefanovska, A.; McClintock, P. V.

    2005-03-01

    We reconstruct a nonlinear stochastic model of the cardiorespiratory interaction in terms of a set of polynomial basis functions representing the nonlinear force governing system oscillations. The strength and direction of coupling and noise intensity are simultaneously inferred from a univariate blood pressure signal. Our new inference technique does not require extensive global optimization, and it is applicable to a wide range of complex dynamical systems subject to noise.

  7. Settlement during vibratory sheet piling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijers, P.

    2007-01-01

    During vibratory sheet piling quite often the soil near the sheet pile wall will settle. In many cases this is not a problem. For situations with houses, pipelines, roads or railroads at relative short distance these settlements may not be acceptable. The purpose of the research described in this

  8. Theoretical Predictions of Freestanding Honeycomb Sheets of Cadmium Chalcogenides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Jia [ORNL; Huang, Jingsong [ORNL; Sumpter, Bobby G [ORNL; Kent, Paul R [ORNL; Xie, Yu [ORNL; Terrones Maldonado, Humberto [ORNL; Smith, Sean C [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Two-dimensional (2D) nanocrystals of CdX (X = S, Se, Te) typically grown by colloidal synthesis are coated with organic ligands. Recent experimental work on ZnSe showed that the organic ligands can be removed at elevated temperature, giving a freestanding 2D sheet of ZnSe. In this theoretical work, freestanding single- to few-layer sheets of CdX, each possessing a pseudo honeycomb lattice, are considered by cutting along all possible lattice planes of the bulk zinc blende (ZB) and wurtzite (WZ) phases. Using density functional theory, we have systematically studied their geometric structures, energetics, and electronic properties. A strong surface distortion is found to occur for all of the layered sheets, and yet all of the pseudo honeycomb lattices are preserved, giving unique types of surface corrugations and different electronic properties. The energetics, in combination with phonon mode calculations and molecular dynamics simulations, indicate that the syntheses of these freestanding 2D sheets could be selective, with the single- to few-layer WZ110, WZ100, and ZB110 sheets being favored. Through the GW approximation, it is found that all single-layer sheets have large band gaps falling into the ultraviolet range, while thicker sheets in general have reduced band gaps in the visible and ultraviolet range. On the basis of the present work and the experimental studies on freestanding double-layer sheets of ZnSe, we envision that the freestanding 2D layered sheets of CdX predicted herein are potential synthesis targets, which may offer tunable band gaps depending on their structural features including surface corrugations, stacking motifs, and number of layers.

  9. Nanostructure characterization of beta-sheet crystals in silk under various temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Yan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the nanostructure characterizations of β-sheet in silk fiber with different reaction temperatures. A molecular dynamic model is developed and simulated by Gromacs software packages. The results reveal the change rules of the number of hydrogen bonds in β-sheet under different temperatures. The best reaction temperature for the β-sheet crystals is also found. This work provides theoretical basis for the designing of materials based on silk.

  10. Dopamine, reward learning, and active inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eFitzgerald

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Temporal difference learning models propose phasic dopamine signalling encodes reward prediction errors that drive learning. This is supported by studies where optogenetic stimulation of dopamine neurons can stand in lieu of actual reward. Nevertheless, a large body of data also shows that dopamine is not necessary for learning, and that dopamine depletion primarily affects task performance. We offer a resolution to this paradox based on an hypothesis that dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about alternative actions, and thus controls the outcome-sensitivity of behaviour. We extend an active inference scheme for solving Markov decision processes to include learning, and show that simulated dopamine dynamics strongly resemble those actually observed during instrumental conditioning. Furthermore, simulated dopamine depletion impairs performance but spares learning, while simulated excitation of dopamine neurons drives reward learning, through aberrant inference about outcome states. Our formal approach provides a novel and parsimonious reconciliation of apparently divergent experimental findings.

  11. Dopamine, reward learning, and active inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    FitzGerald, Thomas H B; Dolan, Raymond J; Friston, Karl

    2015-01-01

    Temporal difference learning models propose phasic dopamine signaling encodes reward prediction errors that drive learning. This is supported by studies where optogenetic stimulation of dopamine neurons can stand in lieu of actual reward. Nevertheless, a large body of data also shows that dopamine is not necessary for learning, and that dopamine depletion primarily affects task performance. We offer a resolution to this paradox based on an hypothesis that dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about alternative actions, and thus controls the outcome-sensitivity of behavior. We extend an active inference scheme for solving Markov decision processes to include learning, and show that simulated dopamine dynamics strongly resemble those actually observed during instrumental conditioning. Furthermore, simulated dopamine depletion impairs performance but spares learning, while simulated excitation of dopamine neurons drives reward learning, through aberrant inference about outcome states. Our formal approach provides a novel and parsimonious reconciliation of apparently divergent experimental findings.

  12. The Rapid Ice Sheet Change Observatory (RISCO)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, P.; Howat, I. M.; Ahn, Y.; Porter, C.; McFadden, E. M.

    2010-12-01

    The recent expansion of observational capacity from space has revealed dramatic, rapid changes in the Earth’s ice cover. These discoveries have fundamentally altered how scientists view ice-sheet change. Instead of just slow changes in snow accumulation and melting over centuries or millennia, important changes can occur in sudden events lasting only months, weeks, or even a single day. Our understanding of these short time- and space-scale processes, which hold important implications for future global sea level rise, has been impeded by the low temporal and spatial resolution, delayed sensor tasking, incomplete coverage, inaccessibility and/or high cost of data available to investigators. New cross-agency partnerships and data access policies provide the opportunity to dramatically improve the resolution of ice sheet observations by an order of magnitude, from timescales of months and distances of 10’s of meters, to days and meters or less. Advances in image processing technology also enable application of currently under-utilized datasets. The infrastructure for systematically gathering, processing, analyzing and distributing these data does not currently exist. Here we present the development of a multi-institutional, multi-platform observatory for rapid ice change with the ultimate objective of helping to elucidate the relevant timescales and processes of ice sheet dynamics and response to climate change. The Rapid Ice Sheet Observatory (RISCO) gathers observations of short time- and space-scale Cryosphere events and makes them easily accessible to investigators, media and general public. As opposed to existing data centers, which are structured to archive and distribute diverse types of raw data to end users with the specialized software and skills to analyze them, RISCO focuses on three types of geo-referenced raster (image) data products in a format immediately viewable with commonly available software. These three products are (1) sequences of images

  13. Vitamin and Mineral Supplement Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... website Submit Search NIH Office of Dietary Supplements Vitamin and Mineral Supplement Fact Sheets Search the list ... Supplements: Background Information Botanical Dietary Supplements: Background Information Vitamin and Mineral Fact Sheets Botanical Supplement Fact Sheets ...

  14. Inferring time-varying network topologies from gene expression data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Arvind; Hero, Alfred O; States, David J; Engel, James Douglas

    2007-01-01

    Most current methods for gene regulatory network identification lead to the inference of steady-state networks, that is, networks prevalent over all times, a hypothesis which has been challenged. There has been a need to infer and represent networks in a dynamic, that is, time-varying fashion, in order to account for different cellular states affecting the interactions amongst genes. In this work, we present an approach, regime-SSM, to understand gene regulatory networks within such a dynamic setting. The approach uses a clustering method based on these underlying dynamics, followed by system identification using a state-space model for each learnt cluster--to infer a network adjacency matrix. We finally indicate our results on the mouse embryonic kidney dataset as well as the T-cell activation-based expression dataset and demonstrate conformity with reported experimental evidence.

  15. Current disruptions in the near-earth neutral sheet region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, A.T.Y.; Anderson, B.J.; Takahashi, K.; Zanetti, L.J.; McEntire, R.W.; Potemra, T.A.; Lopez, R.E.; Klumpar, D.M.; Greene, E.M.; Strangeway, R.

    1992-01-01

    Observations from the Charge Composition Explorer in 1985 and 1986 revealed fifteen current disruption events in which the magnetic field fluctuations were large and their onsets coincided well with ground onsets of substorm expansion or intensification. Over the disruption interval, the local magnetic field can change by as much as a factor of ∼7. In general, the stronger the current buildup and the closer the neutral sheet, the larger the resultant field change. There is also a tendency for a larger subsequent enhancement in the AE index with a stronger current buildup prior to current disruption. For events with good pitch angle coverage and extended observation in the neutral sheet region the authors find that the particle pressure increases toward the disruption onset and decreases afterward. Just prior to disruption, either the total particle pressure is isotropic, or the perpendicular component (P perpendicular ) dominates the parallel component (P parallel ), the plasma beta is seen to be as high as ∼70, and the observed plasma pressure gradient at the neutral sheet is large along the tail axis. The deduced local current density associated with pressure gradient is ∼27-80 n/Am 2 and is ∼85-105 mA/m when integrated over the sheet thickness. They infer from these results that just prior to the onset of current disruption, (1) an extremely thin current sheet requiring P parallel > P perpendicular for stress balance does not develop at these distances, (2) the thermal ion orbits are in the chaotic or Speiser regime while the thermal electrons are in the adiabatic regime and, in one case, exhibit peaked fluxes perpendicular to the magnetic field, thus implying no electron orbit chaotization to possibly initiate ion tearing instability, and (3) the neutral sheet is in the unstable regime specified by the cross-field current instability

  16. Formation and interpretation of eskers beneath retreating ice sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creyts, T. T.; Hewitt, I.

    2017-12-01

    The retreat of the ice sheets during the Pleistocene left large and spectacular subglacial features exposed. Understanding these features gives us insight into how the ice sheets retreated, how meltwater influenced retreat, and can help inform our understanding of potential future rates of ice sheet retreat. Among these features, eskers, long sinuous ridges primarily composed of clastic sediments, lack a detailed explanation of how surface melt rates and ice sheet retreat rates influence their growth and spatial distribution. Here, we develop a theory for esker formation based on the initial work of Rothlisberger modified for sediment transport and inclusion of surface meltwater forcing. The primary subglacial ingredients include water flow through subglacial tunnels with the addition of mass balances for sediment transport. We show how eskers when water flow slows below a critical stress for sediment motion. This implies that eskers are deposited in a localized region near the snout of the ice sheet. Our findings suggest that very long eskers form sequentially as the ice front retreats. The position of the esker follows the path of the channel mouth through time, which does not necessarily coincide with the instantaneous route of the feeding channel. However, in most cases, we expect those locations to be similar. The role of surface meltwater and the climatology associated with the forcing is crucial to the lateral spacing of the eskers. We predict that high surface melt rates lead to narrower catchments but that the greater extent of the ablation area means that channels are likely larger. At the same time, for a given channel size (and hence sediment flux), the size of a deposited esker depends on a margin retreat rate. Hence, the size of the eskers is related delicately to the balance between surface melt rates and margin retreat rates. We discuss how our theory can be combined with observed esker distributions to infer the relationship between these two rates

  17. Feature Inference Learning and Eyetracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehder, Bob; Colner, Robert M.; Hoffman, Aaron B.

    2009-01-01

    Besides traditional supervised classification learning, people can learn categories by inferring the missing features of category members. It has been proposed that feature inference learning promotes learning a category's internal structure (e.g., its typical features and interfeature correlations) whereas classification promotes the learning of…

  18. An Inference Language for Imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedemonte, Stefano; Catana, Ciprian; Van Leemput, Koen

    2014-01-01

    We introduce iLang, a language and software framework for probabilistic inference. The iLang framework enables the definition of directed and undirected probabilistic graphical models and the automated synthesis of high performance inference algorithms for imaging applications. The iLang framewor...

  19. Selectively reflective transparent sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waché, Rémi; Florescu, Marian; Sweeney, Stephen J.; Clowes, Steven K.

    2015-08-01

    We investigate the possibility to selectively reflect certain wavelengths while maintaining the optical properties on other spectral ranges. This is of particular interest for transparent materials, which for specific applications may require high reflectivity at pre-determined frequencies. Although there exist currently techniques such as coatings to produce selective reflection, this work focuses on new approaches for mass production of polyethylene sheets which incorporate either additives or surface patterning for selective reflection between 8 to 13 μ m. Typical additives used to produce a greenhouse effect in plastics include particles such as clays, silica or hydroxide materials. However, the absorption of thermal radiation is less efficient than the decrease of emissivity as it can be compared with the inclusion of Lambertian materials. Photonic band gap engineering by the periodic structuring of metamaterials is known in nature for producing the vivid bright colors in certain organisms via strong wavelength-selective reflection. Research to artificially engineer such structures has mainly focused on wavelengths in the visible and near infrared. However few studies to date have been carried out to investigate the properties of metastructures in the mid infrared range even though the patterning of microstructure is easier to achieve. We present preliminary results on the diffuse reflectivity using FDTD simulations and analyze the technical feasibility of these approaches.

  20. Gauging Variational Inference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chertkov, Michael [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ahn, Sungsoo [Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Jinwoo [Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-05-25

    Computing partition function is the most important statistical inference task arising in applications of Graphical Models (GM). Since it is computationally intractable, approximate methods have been used to resolve the issue in practice, where meanfield (MF) and belief propagation (BP) are arguably the most popular and successful approaches of a variational type. In this paper, we propose two new variational schemes, coined Gauged-MF (G-MF) and Gauged-BP (G-BP), improving MF and BP, respectively. Both provide lower bounds for the partition function by utilizing the so-called gauge transformation which modifies factors of GM while keeping the partition function invariant. Moreover, we prove that both G-MF and G-BP are exact for GMs with a single loop of a special structure, even though the bare MF and BP perform badly in this case. Our extensive experiments, on complete GMs of relatively small size and on large GM (up-to 300 variables) confirm that the newly proposed algorithms outperform and generalize MF and BP.

  1. Social Inference Through Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oulasvirta, Antti

    Awareness cues are computer-mediated, real-time indicators of people’s undertakings, whereabouts, and intentions. Already in the mid-1970 s, UNIX users could use commands such as “finger” and “talk” to find out who was online and to chat. The small icons in instant messaging (IM) applications that indicate coconversants’ presence in the discussion space are the successors of “finger” output. Similar indicators can be found in online communities, media-sharing services, Internet relay chat (IRC), and location-based messaging applications. But presence and availability indicators are only the tip of the iceberg. Technological progress has enabled richer, more accurate, and more intimate indicators. For example, there are mobile services that allow friends to query and follow each other’s locations. Remote monitoring systems developed for health care allow relatives and doctors to assess the wellbeing of homebound patients (see, e.g., Tang and Venables 2000). But users also utilize cues that have not been deliberately designed for this purpose. For example, online gamers pay attention to other characters’ behavior to infer what the other players are like “in real life.” There is a common denominator underlying these examples: shared activities rely on the technology’s representation of the remote person. The other human being is not physically present but present only through a narrow technological channel.

  2. Superfund fact sheet: The remedial program. Fact sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-09-01

    The fact sheet describes what various actions the EPA can take to clean up hazardous wastes sites. Explanations of how the criteria for environmental and public health risk assessment are determined and the role of state and local governments in site remediation are given. The fact sheet is one in a series providing reference information about Superfund issues and is intended for readers with no formal scientific training

  3. Geothermal Heat Flux Underneath Ice Sheets Estimated From Magnetic Satellite Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fox Maule, Cathrine; Purucker, M.E.; Olsen, Nils

    The geothermal heat flux is an important factor in the dynamics of ice sheets, and it is one of the important parameters in the thermal budgets of subglacial lakes. We have used satellite magnetic data to estimate the geothermal heat flux underneath the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland...

  4. Active current sheets near the earth's bow shock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, S.J.; Kessel, R.L.; Brown, C.C.; Woolliscroft, L.J.C.; Dunlop, M.W.; Farrugia, C.J.; Hall, D.S.

    1988-01-01

    The authors present here an investigation of active current sheets observed by the AMPTE UK spacecraft near the Earth's bow shock, concentrating on their macroscopic features and geometry. Events selected primarily by flow directions which deviate substantially from the Sun-Earth line show similar characteristics, including their association with an underlying macroscopic current sheet and a hot central region whose flow direction is organized, at least in part, by location relative to the inferred initial intersection point between the current sheet and the bow shock. This region is flanked by edges which, according to a Rankine-Hugoniot analysis, are often fast shocks whose orientation is consistent with that expected if a bulge on the bow shock convected past the spacecraft. They have found the magnetosheath manifestations of these events which they study in detail. They suggest that these events are the direct result of the disruption and reformation of the bow shock by the passage of an interplanetary current sheet, most probably a tangential discontinuity

  5. Nonparaxial Bessel and Bessel–Gauss pincers light-sheets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitri, F.G., E-mail: F.G.Mitri@ieee.org

    2017-01-23

    Highlights: • Bessel and Bessel–Gauss autofocusing light sheets (i.e. beams in 2D) are developed. • The light-sheets are synthesized based on the angular spectrum decomposition method. • Computations of the scattering, radiation force and torque benefit from the solutions. - Abstract: Nonparaxial optical Bessel and Bessel–Gauss pincers optical-sheets are introduced based upon the angular spectrum decomposition in plane waves. The angular spectrum function and the beam-shape coefficients are expressed by means of improper integrals computed numerically. The radiated component of the electric field is also evaluated, displaying unique features of the nonparaxial Bessel pincers light-sheets. This new type of auto-focusing light-sheets finds potential applications in the development of novel methods in optical light-sheet tweezers for particle manipulation in opto-fluidics, particle sizing and imaging. Numerical predictions for the scattering, radiation force and torque, and particle dynamics also benefit from the developed beam solution.

  6. Nonparaxial Bessel and Bessel–Gauss pincers light-sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitri, F.G.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Bessel and Bessel–Gauss autofocusing light sheets (i.e. beams in 2D) are developed. • The light-sheets are synthesized based on the angular spectrum decomposition method. • Computations of the scattering, radiation force and torque benefit from the solutions. - Abstract: Nonparaxial optical Bessel and Bessel–Gauss pincers optical-sheets are introduced based upon the angular spectrum decomposition in plane waves. The angular spectrum function and the beam-shape coefficients are expressed by means of improper integrals computed numerically. The radiated component of the electric field is also evaluated, displaying unique features of the nonparaxial Bessel pincers light-sheets. This new type of auto-focusing light-sheets finds potential applications in the development of novel methods in optical light-sheet tweezers for particle manipulation in opto-fluidics, particle sizing and imaging. Numerical predictions for the scattering, radiation force and torque, and particle dynamics also benefit from the developed beam solution.

  7. Deglaciation of the Eurasian ice sheet complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patton, Henry; Hubbard, Alun; Andreassen, Karin; Auriac, Amandine; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Shackleton, Calvin; Winsborrow, Monica; Heyman, Jakob; Hall, Adrian M.

    2017-08-01

    The Eurasian ice sheet complex (EISC) was the third largest ice mass during the Last Glacial Maximum with a span of over 4500 km and responsible for around 20 m of eustatic sea-level lowering. Whilst recent terrestrial and marine empirical insights have improved understanding of the chronology, pattern and rates of retreat of this vast ice sheet, a concerted attempt to model the deglaciation of the EISC honouring these new constraints is conspicuously lacking. Here, we apply a first-order, thermomechanical ice sheet model, validated against a diverse suite of empirical data, to investigate the retreat of the EISC after 23 ka BP, directly extending the work of Patton et al. (2016) who modelled the build-up to its maximum extent. Retreat of the ice sheet complex was highly asynchronous, reflecting contrasting regional sensitivities to climate forcing, oceanic influence, and internal dynamics. Most rapid retreat was experienced across the Barents Sea sector after 17.8 ka BP when this marine-based ice sheet disintegrated at a rate of ∼670 gigatonnes per year (Gt a-1) through enhanced calving and interior dynamic thinning, driven by oceanic/atmospheric warming and exacerbated by eustatic sea-level rise. From 14.9 to 12.9 ka BP the EISC lost on average 750 Gt a-1, peaking at rates >3000 Gt a-1, roughly equally partitioned between surface melt and dynamic losses, and potentially contributing up to 2.5 m to global sea-level rise during Meltwater Pulse 1A. Independent glacio-isostatic modelling constrained by an extensive inventory of relative sea-level change corroborates our ice sheet loading history of the Barents Sea sector. Subglacial conditions were predominately temperate during deglaciation, with over 6000 subglacial lakes predicted along with an extensive subglacial drainage network. Moreover, the maximum EISC and its isostatic footprint had a profound impact on the proglacial hydrological network, forming the Fleuve Manche mega-catchment which had an area of

  8. Emplacement of Antarctic ice sheet mass affects circumpolar ocean flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rugenstein, Maria; Stocchi, Paolo; von der Heydt, Anna; Dijkstra, Hendrik; Brinkhuis, Henk

    2014-01-01

    During the Cenozoic the Antarctic continent experienced large fluctuations in ice-sheet volume. We investigate the effects of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) on Southern Ocean circulation for the first continental scale glaciation of Antarctica (~34 Myr) by combining solid Earth and ocean dynamic

  9. Phonon dispersions in graphene sheet and single-walled carbon ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. In the present research paper, phonons in graphene sheet have been calculated by con- structing a dynamical matrix using the force constants derived from the second-generation reactive empirical bond order potential by Brenner and co-workers. Our results are comparable to inelastic. X-ray scattering as well as ...

  10. 2012 Swimming Season Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    To help beachgoers make informed decisions about swimming at U.S. beaches, EPA annually publishes state-by-state data about beach closings and advisories for the previous year's swimming season. These fact sheets summarize that information by state.

  11. State Fact Sheets on COPD

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Submit Search The CDC Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Note: Javascript is disabled or is not supported ... message, please visit this page: About CDC.gov . COPD Homepage Data and Statistics Fact Sheets Publications Publications ...

  12. Inferring Microbial Fitness Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-25

    what specific mutations , avian influenza viruses will adapt to novel human hosts; or how readily infectious bacteria will escape antibiotics or the...microbes as they adapt? For example, what determines how quickly, and by what specific mutations , avian influenza viruses will adapt to novel human...Ribosome-Footprint and mRNA Measurements Provide Insights into Dynamics and Regulation of Yeast Translation, Cell Reports, (02 2016): 1787. doi

  13. Australian Government Balance Sheet Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wilson Au-Yeung; Jason McDonald; Amanda Sayegh

    2006-01-01

    Since almost eliminating net debt, the Australian Government%u2019s attention has turned to the financing of broader balance sheet liabilities, such as public sector superannuation. Australia will be developing a significant financial asset portfolio in the %u2018Future Fund%u2019 to smooth the financing of expenses through time. This raises the significant policy question of how best to manage the government balance sheet to reduce risk. This paper provides a framework for optimal balance sh...

  14. Energy information sheets, July 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    The National Energy Information Center (NEIC), as part of its mission, provides energy information and referral assistance to Federal, State, and local governments, the academic community, business and industrial organizations, and the public. The Energy Information Sheets was developed to provide general information on various aspects of fuel production, prices, consumption, and capability. Additional information on related subject matter can be found in other Energy Information Administration (EIA) publications as referenced at the end of each sheet.

  15. Energy information sheets, September 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-09-01

    The National Energy Information Center (NEIC), as part of its mission, provides energy information and referral assistance to Federal, State, and local governments, the academic community, business and industrial organizations, and the public. The Energy Information Sheets was developed to provide general information on various aspects of fuel production, prices, consumption, and capability. Additional information on related subject matter can be found in other Energy Information Administration (EIA) publications as referenced at the end of each sheet.

  16. Phylogenetic Inference of HIV Transmission Clusters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Better understanding the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks is essential for designing the most efficient interventions to prevent new HIV transmissions, and ultimately for gaining control of the HIV epidemic. The inference of phylogenetic relationships and the interpretation of results rely on the definition of the HIV transmission cluster. The definition of the HIV cluster is complex and dependent on multiple factors, including the design of sampling, accuracy of sequencing, precision of sequence alignment, evolutionary models, the phylogenetic method of inference, and specified thresholds for cluster support. While the majority of studies focus on clusters, non-clustered cases could also be highly informative. A new dimension in the analysis of the global and local HIV epidemics is the concept of phylogenetically distinct HIV sub-epidemics. The identification of active HIV sub-epidemics reveals spreading viral lineages and may help in the design of targeted interventions.HIVclustering can also be affected by sampling density. Obtaining a proper sampling density may increase statistical power and reduce sampling bias, so sampling density should be taken into account in study design and in interpretation of phylogenetic results. Finally, recent advances in long-range genotyping may enable more accurate inference of HIV transmission networks. If performed in real time, it could both inform public-health strategies and be clinically relevant (e.g., drug-resistance testing.

  17. Functional neuroanatomy of intuitive physical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Jason; Mikhael, John G; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Kanwisher, Nancy

    2016-08-23

    To engage with the world-to understand the scene in front of us, plan actions, and predict what will happen next-we must have an intuitive grasp of the world's physical structure and dynamics. How do the objects in front of us rest on and support each other, how much force would be required to move them, and how will they behave when they fall, roll, or collide? Despite the centrality of physical inferences in daily life, little is known about the brain mechanisms recruited to interpret the physical structure of a scene and predict how physical events will unfold. Here, in a series of fMRI experiments, we identified a set of cortical regions that are selectively engaged when people watch and predict the unfolding of physical events-a "physics engine" in the brain. These brain regions are selective to physical inferences relative to nonphysical but otherwise highly similar scenes and tasks. However, these regions are not exclusively engaged in physical inferences per se or, indeed, even in scene understanding; they overlap with the domain-general "multiple demand" system, especially the parts of that system involved in action planning and tool use, pointing to a close relationship between the cognitive and neural mechanisms involved in parsing the physical content of a scene and preparing an appropriate action.

  18. Optimization methods for logical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Chandru, Vijay

    2011-01-01

    Merging logic and mathematics in deductive inference-an innovative, cutting-edge approach. Optimization methods for logical inference? Absolutely, say Vijay Chandru and John Hooker, two major contributors to this rapidly expanding field. And even though ""solving logical inference problems with optimization methods may seem a bit like eating sauerkraut with chopsticks. . . it is the mathematical structure of a problem that determines whether an optimization model can help solve it, not the context in which the problem occurs."" Presenting powerful, proven optimization techniques for logic in

  19. Modeling the Alzheimer Abeta17-42 fibril architecture: tight intermolecular sheet-sheet association and intramolecular hydrated cavities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jie; Jang, Hyunbum; Ma, Buyong; Tsai, Chung-Jun; Nussinov, Ruth

    2007-11-01

    We investigate Abeta(17-42) protofibril structures in solution using molecular dynamics simulations. Recently, NMR and computations modeled the Abeta protofibril as a longitudinal stack of U-shaped molecules, creating an in-parallel beta-sheet and loop spine. Here we study the molecular architecture of the fibril formed by spine-spine association. We model in-register intermolecular beta-sheet-beta-sheet associations and study the consequences of Alzheimer's mutations (E22G, E22Q, E22K, and M35A) on the organization. We assess the structural stability and association force of Abeta oligomers with different sheet-sheet interfaces. Double-layered oligomers associating through the C-terminal-C-terminal interface are energetically more favorable than those with the N-terminal-N-terminal interface, although both interfaces exhibit high structural stability. The C-terminal-C-terminal interface is essentially stabilized by hydrophobic and van der Waals (shape complementarity via M35-M35 contacts) intermolecular interactions, whereas the N-terminal-N-terminal interface is stabilized by hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions. Hence, shape complementarity, or the "steric zipper" motif plays an important role in amyloid formation. On the other hand, the intramolecular Abeta beta-strand-loop-beta-strand U-shaped motif creates a hydrophobic cavity with a diameter of 6-7 A, allowing water molecules and ions to conduct through. The hydrated hydrophobic cavities may allow optimization of the sheet association and constitute a typical feature of fibrils, in addition to the tight sheet-sheet association. Thus, we propose that Abeta fiber architecture consists of alternating layers of tight packing and hydrated cavities running along the fibrillar axis, which might be possibly detected by high-resolution imaging.

  20. Temperature sheets and aspect sensitive radar echoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Luce

    of the ST radar echoes with a particular emphasis on recent works. Their possible coupling with stable sheets is then presented and their known characteristics are described with some hypotheses concerning their generation mechanisms. Finally, measurement campaigns that took recently place or will be carried out in the near future for improving our knowledge of these small-scale structures are presented briefly.

    Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (turbulence; instruments and techniques – Radio Science (remote sensing

  1. Temperature sheets and aspect sensitive radar echoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Luce

    2001-08-01

    of the ST radar echoes with a particular emphasis on recent works. Their possible coupling with stable sheets is then presented and their known characteristics are described with some hypotheses concerning their generation mechanisms. Finally, measurement campaigns that took recently place or will be carried out in the near future for improving our knowledge of these small-scale structures are presented briefly.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (turbulence; instruments and techniques – Radio Science (remote sensing

  2. Protein unfolding versus β-sheet separation in spider silk nanocrystals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alam, Parvez

    2014-01-01

    In this communication a mechanism for spider silk strain hardening is proposed. Shear failure of β-sheet nanocrystals is the first failure mode that gives rise to the creation of smaller nanocrystals, which are of higher strength and stiffness. β-sheet unfolding requires more energy than nanocrystal separation in a shear mode of failure. As a result, unfolding occurs after the nanocrystals separate in shear. β-sheet unfolding yields a secondary strain hardening effect once the β-sheet conformation is geometrically stable and acts like a unidirectional fibre in a fibre reinforced composite. The mechanism suggested herein is based on molecular dynamics calculations of residual inter-β-sheet separation strengths against residual intra-β-sheet unfolding strengths. (paper)

  3. FDTD modeling of thin impedance sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luebbers, Raymond J.; Kunz, Karl S.

    1991-01-01

    Thin sheets of resistive or dielectric material are commonly encountered in radar cross section calculations. Analysis of such sheets is simplified by using sheet impedances. In this paper it is shown that sheet impedances can be modeled easily and accurately using Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) methods.

  4. Delta Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendixen, Mette

    . The warming air temperature affects the soil temperature and permafrost thaws and destabilizes the material in the coastal zone. In Greenland, the warming temperature lowers the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet and more material is transported to the coastal zone. The sea ice extent is thinning...... of a fjord and the second type is a wider fan-shaped open delta. Most deltas are directly coupled to the Greenland Ice Sheet or local icecaps and are highly influenced by the dynamics in the catchments. It is demonstrated how a modern changing climate directly affects delta dynamics, and that Greenlandic...... deltas are prograding, contrary to the global trend showing eroding Arctic coasts. Moreover, it is revealed that the increasing proglacial freshwater runoff, caused by a lowering of the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet is the main determining agent in delta progradation. The final part...

  5. Greenland Ice sheet mass balance from satellite and airborne altimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Bevis, M. G.; Wahr, J. M.

    Ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is dominated by loss in the marginal areas. Dynamic induced ice loss and its associated ice surface lowering is often largest close to the glacier calving front and may vary from rates of tens of meters per years to a few meters per year over relatively...... short distances. Hence, high spatial resolution data are required to accurately estimate volume changes. Here, we estimate ice volume change rate of the Greenland ice sheet using data from Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter during 2003-2009 and CryoSat-2 data during 2010...

  6. On principles of inductive inference

    OpenAIRE

    Kostecki, Ryszard Paweł

    2011-01-01

    We propose an intersubjective epistemic approach to foundations of probability theory and statistical inference, based on relative entropy and category theory, and aimed to bypass the mathematical and conceptual problems of existing foundational approaches.

  7. Statistical inference via fiducial methods

    OpenAIRE

    Salomé, Diemer

    1998-01-01

    In this thesis the attention is restricted to inductive reasoning using a mathematical probability model. A statistical procedure prescribes, for every theoretically possible set of data, the inference about the unknown of interest. ... Zie: Summary

  8. Statistical inference for stochastic processes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Basawa, Ishwar V; Prakasa Rao, B. L. S

    1980-01-01

    The aim of this monograph is to attempt to reduce the gap between theory and applications in the area of stochastic modelling, by directing the interest of future researchers to the inference aspects...

  9. On Jovian plasma sheet structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khurana, K.K.; Kivelson, M.G.

    1989-01-01

    The authors evaluate several models of Jovian plasma sheet structure by determining how well they organize several aspects of the observed Voyager 2 magnetic field characteristics as a function of Jovicentric radial distance. It is shown that in the local time sector of the Voyager 2 outbound pass (near 0300 LT) the published hinged-magnetodisc models with wave (i.e., models corrected for finite wave velocity effects) are more successful than the published magnetic anomaly model in predicting locations of current sheet crossings. They also consider the boundary between the plasma sheet and the magnetotail lobe which is expected to vary slowly with radial distance. They use this boundary location as a further test of the models of the magnetotail. They show that the compressional MHD waves have much smaller amplitude in the lobes than in the plasma sheet and use this criterion to refine the identification of the plasma-sheet-lobe boundary. When the locations of crossings into and out of the lobes are examined, it becomes evident that the magnetic-anomaly model yields a flaring plasma sheet with a halfwidth of ∼ 3 R J at a radial distance of 20 R J and ∼ 12 R J at a radial distance of 100 R J . The hinged-magnetodisc models with wave, on the other hand, predict a halfwidth of ∼ 3.5 R J independent of distance beyond 20 R J . New optimized versions of the two models locate both the current sheet crossings and lobe encounters equally successfully. The optimized hinged-magnetodisc model suggests that the wave velocity decreases with increasing radial distance. The optimized magnetic anomaly model yields lower velocity contrast than the model of Vasyliunas and Dessler (1981)

  10. Automobile sheet metal part production with incremental sheet forming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İsmail DURGUN

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, effect of global warming is increasing drastically so it leads to increased interest on energy efficiency and sustainable production methods. As a result of adverse conditions, national and international project platforms, OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers, SMEs (Small and Mid-size Manufacturers perform many studies or improve existing methodologies in scope of advanced manufacturing techniques. In this study, advanced manufacturing and sustainable production method "Incremental Sheet Metal Forming (ISF" was used for sheet metal forming process. A vehicle fender was manufactured with or without die by using different toolpath strategies and die sets. At the end of the study, Results have been investigated under the influence of method and parameters used.Keywords: Template incremental sheet metal, Metal forming

  11. Simulation of the European ice sheet through the last glacial cycle and prediction of future glaciation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulton, G.S.; Payne, A.

    1992-12-01

    Global climates of the recent past appear to correlate with patterns of variation in the earths orbit round the sun. As such orbital changes can be predicted into the future, it is argued that the pattern of natural long-term future change can also be estimated. From this, future trends of glaciation can be inferred. The physical and mathematical basis of a time-dependent, thermo mechanically coupled, three dimensional ice sheet model is described. The model is driven by changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) on its surface. This causes flexure of the underlying lithosphere. The model is tuned to the maximum extension of the last (Weichselian) ice sheet and driven by an ELA fluctuation which reflects the NE Atlantic sea surface temperature fluctuation pattern during the last glacial cycle in such a way that the model reproduces the ice sheet margin at the glacial maximum. The distribution of internal ice sheet velocity, temperature, basal melting rate and sub glacial permafrost penetration are all computed. The model is then tested against its predictions of the areal pattern of ice sheet expansion and decay, the pattern of crustal flexure and relative sea level change, and the distribution of till produced by the last European ice sheet. The tested model is then driven by predictions of future climate change to produce simulations of future ice sheet glaciation in northern Europe

  12. AER Benchmark Specification Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aszodi, A.; Toth, S.

    2009-01-01

    In the WWER-440/213 type reactors, the core outlet temperature field is monitored with in-core thermocouples, which are installed above 210 fuel assemblies. These measured temperatures are used in determination of the fuel assembly powers and they have important role in the reactor power limitation. For these reasons, correct interpretation of the thermocouple signals is an important question. In order to interpret the signals in correct way, knowledge of the coolant mixing in the assembly heads is necessary. Computational fluid dynamics codes and experiments can help to understand better these mixing processes and they can provide information which can support the more adequate interpretation of the thermocouple signals. This benchmark deals with the 3D computational fluid dynamics modeling of the coolant mixing in the heads of the profiled fuel assemblies with 12.2 mm rod pitch. Two assemblies of the twenty third cycle of the Paks NPPs Unit 3 are investigated. One of them has symmetrical pin power profile and another possesses inclined profile. (Authors)

  13. Uranium mining sites - Thematic sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    A first sheet proposes comments, data and key numbers about uranium extraction in France: general overview of uranium mining sites, status of waste rock and tailings after exploitation, site rehabilitation. The second sheet addresses the sources of exposure to ionizing radiations due to ancient uranium mining sites: discussion on the identification of these sources associated with these sites, properly due to mining activities or to tailings, or due to the transfer of radioactive substances towards water and to the contamination of sediments, description of the practice and assessment of radiological control of mining sites. A third sheet addresses the radiological exposure of public to waste rocks, and the dose assessment according to exposure scenarios: main exposure ways to be considered, studied exposure scenarios (passage on backfilled path and grounds, stay in buildings built on waste rocks, keeping mineralogical samples at home). The fourth sheet addresses research programmes of the IRSN on uranium and radon: epidemiological studies (performed on mine workers; on French and on European cohorts, French and European studies on the risk of lung cancer associated with radon in housing), study of the biological effects of chronic exposures. The last sheet addresses studies and expertises performed by the IRSN on ancient uranium mining sites in France: studies commissioned by public authorities, radioactivity control studies performed by the IRSN about mining sites, participation of the IRSN to actions to promote openness to civil society

  14. Optimal inference with suboptimal models: Addiction and active Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H.B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Wurst, Friedrich; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

    2015-01-01

    When casting behaviour as active (Bayesian) inference, optimal inference is defined with respect to an agent’s beliefs – based on its generative model of the world. This contrasts with normative accounts of choice behaviour, in which optimal actions are considered in relation to the true structure of the environment – as opposed to the agent’s beliefs about worldly states (or the task). This distinction shifts an understanding of suboptimal or pathological behaviour away from aberrant inference as such, to understanding the prior beliefs of a subject that cause them to behave less ‘optimally’ than our prior beliefs suggest they should behave. Put simply, suboptimal or pathological behaviour does not speak against understanding behaviour in terms of (Bayes optimal) inference, but rather calls for a more refined understanding of the subject’s generative model upon which their (optimal) Bayesian inference is based. Here, we discuss this fundamental distinction and its implications for understanding optimality, bounded rationality and pathological (choice) behaviour. We illustrate our argument using addictive choice behaviour in a recently described ‘limited offer’ task. Our simulations of pathological choices and addictive behaviour also generate some clear hypotheses, which we hope to pursue in ongoing empirical work. PMID:25561321

  15. Joint Model and Parameter Dimension Reduction for Bayesian Inversion Applied to an Ice Sheet Flow Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghattas, O.; Petra, N.; Cui, T.; Marzouk, Y.; Benjamin, P.; Willcox, K.

    2016-12-01

    Model-based projections of the dynamics of the polar ice sheets play a central role in anticipating future sea level rise. However, a number of mathematical and computational challenges place significant barriers on improving predictability of these models. One such challenge is caused by the unknown model parameters (e.g., in the basal boundary conditions) that must be inferred from heterogeneous observational data, leading to an ill-posed inverse problem and the need to quantify uncertainties in its solution. In this talk we discuss the problem of estimating the uncertainty in the solution of (large-scale) ice sheet inverse problems within the framework of Bayesian inference. Computing the general solution of the inverse problem--i.e., the posterior probability density--is intractable with current methods on today's computers, due to the expense of solving the forward model (3D full Stokes flow with nonlinear rheology) and the high dimensionality of the uncertain parameters (which are discretizations of the basal sliding coefficient field). To overcome these twin computational challenges, it is essential to exploit problem structure (e.g., sensitivity of the data to parameters, the smoothing property of the forward model, and correlations in the prior). To this end, we present a data-informed approach that identifies low-dimensional structure in both parameter space and the forward model state space. This approach exploits the fact that the observations inform only a low-dimensional parameter space and allows us to construct a parameter-reduced posterior. Sampling this parameter-reduced posterior still requires multiple evaluations of the forward problem, therefore we also aim to identify a low dimensional state space to reduce the computational cost. To this end, we apply a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) approach to approximate the state using a low-dimensional manifold constructed using ``snapshots'' from the parameter reduced posterior, and the discrete

  16. ICESat's First Year of Measurements Over the Polar Ice Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuman, C. A.

    2004-05-01

    NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission was developed to measure changes in elevation of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Its primary mission goal is to significantly refine estimates of polar ice sheet mass balance. Obtaining precise, spatially dense, ice sheet elevations through time is the first step towards this goal. ICESat data will then enable study of associations between observed ice changes and dynamic or climatic forcing factors, and thus enable improved estimation of the present and future contributions of the ice sheets to global sea level rise. ICESat was launched on January 12, 2003 and acquired science data from February 20th to March 29th with the first of the three lasers of the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS). Data acquisition with the second laser began on September 25th and continued until November 18th, 2003. For one-year change detection, the second laser is scheduled for operation from approximately February 17th to March 20th, 2004. Additional operational periods will be selected to 1) enable periodic measurements through the year, and 2) to support of other NASA Earth Science Enterprise missions and activities. To obtain these precise ice sheet elevations, GLAS has a 1064 nm wavelength laser operating at 40 Hz with a designed range precision of about 10 cm. The laser footprints are about 70 m in diameter on the Earth's surface and are spaced every 172 m along-track. The on-board GPS receiver enables radial orbit determinations to an accuracy better than 5 cm. The star-tracking attitude-determination system will enable laser footprints to be located to 6 m horizontally when attitude calibration is completed. The orbital altitude averages 600 km at an inclination of 94 degrees with coverage extending from 86 degrees N and S latitude. The spacecraft attitude can be controlled to point the laser beam to within 50 m of surface reference tracks over the ice sheets and to point off-nadir up to 5 degrees to

  17. Ocean Tide Influences on the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padman, Laurie; Siegfried, Matthew R.; Fricker, Helen A.

    2018-03-01

    Ocean tides are the main source of high-frequency variability in the vertical and horizontal motion of ice sheets near their marine margins. Floating ice shelves, which occupy about three quarters of the perimeter of Antarctica and the termini of four outlet glaciers in northern Greenland, rise and fall in synchrony with the ocean tide. Lateral motion of floating and grounded portions of ice sheets near their marine margins can also include a tidal component. These tide-induced signals provide insight into the processes by which the oceans can affect ice sheet mass balance and dynamics. In this review, we summarize in situ and satellite-based measurements of the tidal response of ice shelves and grounded ice, and spatial variability of ocean tide heights and currents around the ice sheets. We review sensitivity of tide heights and currents as ocean geometry responds to variations in sea level, ice shelf thickness, and ice sheet mass and extent. We then describe coupled ice-ocean models and analytical glacier models that quantify the effect of ocean tides on lower-frequency ice sheet mass loss and motion. We suggest new observations and model developments to improve the representation of tides in coupled models that are used to predict future ice sheet mass loss and the associated contribution to sea level change. The most critical need is for new data to improve maps of bathymetry, ice shelf draft, spatial variability of the drag coefficient at the ice-ocean interface, and higher-resolution models with improved representation of tidal energy sinks.

  18. Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brendan Chambers

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches. Mapping the routing of spikes through local circuitry is crucial for understanding neocortical computation. Under appropriate experimental conditions, these maps can be used to infer likely patterns of synaptic recruitment, linking activity to underlying anatomical connections. Such inferences help to reveal the synaptic implementation of population dynamics and computation. We compare a number of standard functional measures to infer underlying connectivity. We find that regularization impacts measures

  19. Root-growth-inhibiting sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, F.G.; Cataldo, D.A.; Cline, J.F.; Skiens, W.E.; Van Voris, P.

    1993-01-26

    In accordance with this invention, a porous sheet material is provided at intervals with bodies of a polymer which contain a 2,6-dinitroaniline. The sheet material is made porous to permit free passage of water. It may be either a perforated sheet or a woven or non-woven textile material. A particularly desirable embodiment is a non-woven fabric of non-biodegradable material. This type of material is known as a geotextile'' and is used for weed control, prevention of erosion on slopes, and other landscaping purposes. In order to obtain a root repelling property, a dinitroaniline is blended with a polymer which is attached to the geotextile or other porous material.

  20. Optimal swimming of a sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montenegro-Johnson, Thomas D; Lauga, Eric

    2014-06-01

    Propulsion at microscopic scales is often achieved through propagating traveling waves along hairlike organelles called flagella. Taylor's two-dimensional swimming sheet model is frequently used to provide insight into problems of flagellar propulsion. We derive numerically the large-amplitude wave form of the two-dimensional swimming sheet that yields optimum hydrodynamic efficiency: the ratio of the squared swimming speed to the rate-of-working of the sheet against the fluid. Using the boundary element method, we show that the optimal wave form is a front-back symmetric regularized cusp that is 25% more efficient than the optimal sine wave. This optimal two-dimensional shape is smooth, qualitatively different from the kinked form of Lighthill's optimal three-dimensional flagellum, not predicted by small-amplitude theory, and different from the smooth circular-arc-like shape of active elastic filaments.

  1. Root-growth-inhibiting sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Frederick G.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Cline, John F.; Skiens, W. Eugene; Van Voris, Peter

    1993-01-01

    In accordance with this invention, a porous sheet material is provided at intervals with bodies of a polymer which contain a 2,6-dinitroaniline. The sheet material is made porous to permit free passage of water. It may be either a perforated sheet or a woven or non-woven textile material. A particularly desirable embodiment is a non-woven fabric of non-biodegradable material. This type of material is known as a "geotextile" and is used for weed control, prevention of erosion on slopes, and other landscaping purposes. In order to obtain a root repelling property, a dinitroaniline is blended with a polymer which is attached to the geotextile or other porous material.

  2. Rupture of nanoscaled water sheets in the presence of an applied electric field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gopan, Nandu, E-mail: nandug@jncasr.ac.in [Engineering Mechanics Unit, Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Jakkur, Bangalore-560 064 (India)

    2016-12-15

    Understanding the behaviour of water sheets is relevant in numerous areas, such as thin film coating and atomisation. The rupture of planar liquid sheets are interesting due to the fact that they are objects of co-dimension 1. Previous work seems to suggest that a generic route to liquid structure fragmentation is via liquid sheets. The interplay between inertia, surface tension and viscosity is crucial in determining the dynamics of liquid sheets at a macro scale. At the nanoscale, where thermal fluctuations are expected to play a dominant role, the dynamics become more interesting. The stability and rupture dynamics of nanoscaled water sheets, at constant temperature, are studied using constrained molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The SPC/E potential with long range electrostatics is used to simulate water molecules. The effect of an applied electric field on the stability of the nanoscaled water sheet forms the focus of this study. The effect of the initial configuration is studied by changing the random seed values used for velocity initialisation. The effect of sheet thickness on the rupture dynamics is also explored. It is seen that when large electric fields (5 V/nm) act across very thin sheets (1 layer), then breakup into multiple ellipsoidal structures is a possibility, and the response of the fluid structure to the applied electric field is non-linear. Furthermore, it is seen that Taylor's predictions for the critical electric field intensity, based on classical electro-hydrodynamics for the onset of instability in macroscopic drops, scales surprisingly well for the case of nanoscaled sheets. (paper)

  3. Ni-Flash-Coated Galvannealed Steel Sheet with Improved Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, D.; Dutta, M.; Venugopalan, T.

    2016-11-01

    In the last several years, automobile industries have increasingly focused on galvannealed (GA) steel sheet due to their superior properties such as weldability, paintability and corrosion protection. To improve the properties further, different coatings on GA have been reported. In this context, an electroplating process (flash coating) of bright and adherent Ni plating was developed on GA steel sheet for covering the GA defects and enhancing the performances such as weldability, frictional behavior, corrosion resistance and phosphatability. For better illustration, a comparative study with bare GA steel sheet has also been carried out. The maximum electroplating current density of 700 A/m2 yielded higher cathode current efficiency of 95-98%. The performances showed that Ni-coated (coating time 5-7 s) GA steel sheet has better spot weldability, lower dynamic coefficient of friction (0.07 in lubrication) and three times more corrosion resistance compared to bare GA steel sheet. Plate-like crystal of phosphate coating with size of 10-25 µm was obtained on the Ni-coated GA. The main phase in the phosphate compound was identified as hopeite (63.4 wt.%) along with other phases such as spencerite (28.3 wt.%) and phosphophyllite (8.3 wt.%).

  4. Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sun

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ∼ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.

  5. Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Sainan; Cornford, Stephen L.; Moore, John C.; Gladstone, Rupert; Zhao, Liyun

    2017-11-01

    Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM) to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ˜ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor) fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.

  6. Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

    2016-08-01

    Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.

  7. Modelling the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke; Holm, A.

    2015-01-01

    to sea level high stands during past interglacial periods. A number of AIS models have been developed and applied to try to understand the workings of the AIS and to form a robust basis for future projections of the AIS contribution to sea level change. The recent DCESS (Danish Center for Earth System......The Antarctic ice sheet is a major player in the Earth’s climate system and is by far the largest depository of fresh water on the planet. Ice stored in the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) contains enough water to raise sea level by about 58 m, and ice loss from Antarctica contributed significantly...

  8. Sheet Beam Klystron Instability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bane, K.

    2009-01-01

    Using the principle of energy balance we develop a 2D theory for calculating growth rates of instability in a two-cavity model of a sheet beam klystron. An important ingredient is a TE-like mode in the gap that also gives a longitudinal kick to the beam. When compared with a self-consistent particle-in-cell calculation, with sheet beam klystron-type parameters, agreement is quite good up to half the design current, 65 A; at full current, however, other, current-dependent effects come in and the results deviate significantly

  9. The social balance sheet 2004

    OpenAIRE

    Ph. Delhez; P. Heuse

    2005-01-01

    Each year, in the 4th quarter’s Economic Review, the National Bank examines the provisional results of the social balance sheets. As all the social balance sheets are not yet available for 2004, the study is based on a limited population of enterprises, compiled according to the principle of a constant sample. This population is made up of 38,530 enterprises employing around 1,331,000 workers in 2004. The main results of the analysis, in terms of employment, working hours, labour cost and tra...

  10. AER benchmark specification sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aszodi, A.; Toth, S.

    2009-01-01

    In the VVER-440/213 type reactors, the core outlet temperature field is monitored with in-core thermocouples, which are installed above 210 fuel assemblies. These measured temperatures are used in determination of the fuel assembly powers and they have important role in the reactor power limitation. For these reasons, correct interpretation of the thermocouple signals is an important question. In order to interpret the signals in correct way, knowledge of the coolant mixing in the assembly heads is necessary. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes and experiments can help to understand better these mixing processes and they can provide information which can support the more adequate interpretation of the thermocouple signals. This benchmark deals with the 3D CFD modeling of the coolant mixing in the heads of the profiled fuel assemblies with 12.2 mm rod pitch. Two assemblies of the 23rd cycle of the Paks NPP's Unit 3 are investigated. One of them has symmetrical pin power profile and another possesses inclined profile. (authors)

  11. Damage Prediction in Sheet Metal Forming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saanouni, Khemais; Badreddine, Houssem

    2007-01-01

    Ductile (or plastic) damage often occurs during sheet metal forming processes due to the large plastic flow localization. Accordingly, it is crucial for numerical tools, used in the simulation of that processes, to use fully coupled constitutive equations accounting for both hardening and damage. This can be used in both cases, namely to overcome the damage initiation during some sheet metal forming processes as deep drawing, ... or to enhance the damage initiation and growth as in sheet metal cutting. In this paper, a fully coupled constitutive equations accounting for combined isotropic and kinematic hardening as well as the ductile damage is implemented into the general purpose Finite Element code for metal forming simulation. First, the fully coupled anisotropic constitutive equations in the framework of Continuum Damage Mechanics are presented. Attention is paid to the strong coupling between the main mechanical fields as elasto-viscoplasticity, mixed hardening, ductile isotropic damage and contact with friction. The anisotropy of the plastic flow is taken into account using various kinds of quadratic or non quadratic yield criteria in the framework of non associative finite plasticity theory with two types of normality rules. The associated numerical aspects concerning both the local integration of the coupled constitutive equations as well as the (global) equilibrium integration schemes are presented. The local integration is outlined thanks to the Newton iterative scheme applied to a reduced system of 2 equations. For the global resolution of the initial and boundary value problem, the classical dynamic explicit (DE) scheme with an adaptive time step control is used. The numerical implementation of the damage is made in such a manner that calculations can be executed with or without damage effect, i.e. fully coupled or uncoupled calculations. For the 2D processes an advanced adaptive meshing procedure is used in order to enhance the numerical solution and

  12. Evolution of the Eurasian Ice Sheets during the Last Deglaciation (25-10 kyr)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, A. L. C.; Gyllencreutz, R.; Mangerud, J.; Svendsen, J. I.; Lohne, Ø. S.

    2014-12-01

    Both the timing of maximum extent and subsequent pace of retreat of the interconnected Eurasian (British-Irish, Scandinavian, Svalbard-Barents-Kara Sea) Ice Sheets were spatially variable likely reflecting contrasts in response to forcing mechanisms, geographical settings and glacial dynamics both between individual ice sheets and ice-sheet sectors. For example the maximum limit along the western continental shelf edge was reached up to 3,000 years earlier than the maximum, mainly terrestrial, limits in the east. We present new time-slice reconstructions of the ice-sheet evolution through the last deglaciation based on a compiled chronology of over 5,000 dates and published ice-margin positions. Ice-sheet margins are depicted every 1,000 years (25-10 kyr) and include uncertainty estimates (represented by maximum, minimum and most-credible lines). The new ice-sheet scale reconstructions summarise and provide the means for direct comparison of the empirical geological record against simulations of the deglacial ice-sheet evolution from numerical and isostatic ice-sheet modelling and the timing of abrupt events observed in deglacial climate and ocean records. The reconstruction process has identified both instances of conflicting evidence and gaps in the geological record that should be a focus for future studies. This work is part of an on-going project to reconstruct the changing limits of the Eurasian Ice Sheets through the last glacial cycle (www.uib.no/project/dated).

  13. Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowicki, Sophie M.J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

    2018-01-01

    Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship to other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice sheet – climate models as well as standalone ice sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change. PMID:29697697

  14. Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper

    2018-01-01

    An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....

  15. On Maximum Entropy and Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Gresele

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Maximum entropy is a powerful concept that entails a sharp separation between relevant and irrelevant variables. It is typically invoked in inference, once an assumption is made on what the relevant variables are, in order to estimate a model from data, that affords predictions on all other (dependent variables. Conversely, maximum entropy can be invoked to retrieve the relevant variables (sufficient statistics directly from the data, once a model is identified by Bayesian model selection. We explore this approach in the case of spin models with interactions of arbitrary order, and we discuss how relevant interactions can be inferred. In this perspective, the dimensionality of the inference problem is not set by the number of parameters in the model, but by the frequency distribution of the data. We illustrate the method showing its ability to recover the correct model in a few prototype cases and discuss its application on a real dataset.

  16. Learning from Balance Sheet Visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanlamai, Uthai; Soongswang, Oranuj

    2011-01-01

    This exploratory study examines alternative visuals and their effect on the level of learning of balance sheet users. Executive and regular classes of graduate students majoring in information technology in business were asked to evaluate the extent of acceptance and enhanced capability of these alternative visuals toward their learning…

  17. Off-Balance Sheet Financing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Matthew C.

    1998-01-01

    Examines off-balance sheet financing, the facilities use of outsourcing for selected needs, as a means of saving operational costs and using facility assets efficiently. Examples of using outside sources for energy supply and food services, as well as partnering with business for facility expansion are provided. Concluding comments address tax…

  18. Problem solving and inference mechanisms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Furukawa, K; Nakajima, R; Yonezawa, A; Goto, S; Aoyama, A

    1982-01-01

    The heart of the fifth generation computer will be powerful mechanisms for problem solving and inference. A deduction-oriented language is to be designed, which will form the core of the whole computing system. The language is based on predicate logic with the extended features of structuring facilities, meta structures and relational data base interfaces. Parallel computation mechanisms and specialized hardware architectures are being investigated to make possible efficient realization of the language features. The project includes research into an intelligent programming system, a knowledge representation language and system, and a meta inference system to be built on the core. 30 references.

  19. Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Goodman, Lawrence E

    2001-01-01

    Beginning text presents complete theoretical treatment of mechanical model systems and deals with technological applications. Topics include introduction to calculus of vectors, particle motion, dynamics of particle systems and plane rigid bodies, technical applications in plane motions, theory of mechanical vibrations, and more. Exercises and answers appear in each chapter.

  20. Groundwater flow modelling under ice sheet conditions. Scoping calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaquet, O.; Namar, R. (In2Earth Modelling Ltd (Switzerland)); Jansson, P. (Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-10-15

    The potential impact of long-term climate changes has to be evaluated with respect to repository performance and safety. In particular, glacial periods of advancing and retreating ice sheet and prolonged permafrost conditions are likely to occur over the repository site. The growth and decay of ice sheets and the associated distribution of permafrost will affect the groundwater flow field and its composition. As large changes may take place, the understanding of groundwater flow patterns in connection to glaciations is an important issue for the geological disposal at long term. During a glacial period, the performance of the repository could be weakened by some of the following conditions and associated processes: - Maximum pressure at repository depth (canister failure). - Maximum permafrost depth (canister failure, buffer function). - Concentration of groundwater oxygen (canister corrosion). - Groundwater salinity (buffer stability). - Glacially induced earthquakes (canister failure). Therefore, the GAP project aims at understanding key hydrogeological issues as well as answering specific questions: - Regional groundwater flow system under ice sheet conditions. - Flow and infiltration conditions at the ice sheet bed. - Penetration depth of glacial meltwater into the bedrock. - Water chemical composition at repository depth in presence of glacial effects. - Role of the taliks, located in front of the ice sheet, likely to act as potential discharge zones of deep groundwater flow. - Influence of permafrost distribution on the groundwater flow system in relation to build-up and thawing periods. - Consequences of glacially induced earthquakes on the groundwater flow system. Some answers will be provided by the field data and investigations; the integration of the information and the dynamic characterisation of the key processes will be obtained using numerical modelling. Since most of the data are not yet available, some scoping calculations are performed using the

  1. Groundwater flow modelling under ice sheet conditions. Scoping calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaquet, O.; Namar, R.; Jansson, P.

    2010-10-01

    The potential impact of long-term climate changes has to be evaluated with respect to repository performance and safety. In particular, glacial periods of advancing and retreating ice sheet and prolonged permafrost conditions are likely to occur over the repository site. The growth and decay of ice sheets and the associated distribution of permafrost will affect the groundwater flow field and its composition. As large changes may take place, the understanding of groundwater flow patterns in connection to glaciations is an important issue for the geological disposal at long term. During a glacial period, the performance of the repository could be weakened by some of the following conditions and associated processes: - Maximum pressure at repository depth (canister failure). - Maximum permafrost depth (canister failure, buffer function). - Concentration of groundwater oxygen (canister corrosion). - Groundwater salinity (buffer stability). - Glacially induced earthquakes (canister failure). Therefore, the GAP project aims at understanding key hydrogeological issues as well as answering specific questions: - Regional groundwater flow system under ice sheet conditions. - Flow and infiltration conditions at the ice sheet bed. - Penetration depth of glacial meltwater into the bedrock. - Water chemical composition at repository depth in presence of glacial effects. - Role of the taliks, located in front of the ice sheet, likely to act as potential discharge zones of deep groundwater flow. - Influence of permafrost distribution on the groundwater flow system in relation to build-up and thawing periods. - Consequences of glacially induced earthquakes on the groundwater flow system. Some answers will be provided by the field data and investigations; the integration of the information and the dynamic characterisation of the key processes will be obtained using numerical modelling. Since most of the data are not yet available, some scoping calculations are performed using the

  2. Whooping Cough (Pertussis) - Fact Sheet for Parents

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... months 4 through 6 years Fact Sheet for Parents Color [2 pages] Español: Tosferina (pertussis) The best ... according to the recommended schedule. Fact Sheets for Parents Diseases and the Vaccines that Prevent Them Chickenpox ...

  3. The Probabilistic Convolution Tree: Efficient Exact Bayesian Inference for Faster LC-MS/MS Protein Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serang, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    Exact Bayesian inference can sometimes be performed efficiently for special cases where a function has commutative and associative symmetry of its inputs (called “causal independence”). For this reason, it is desirable to exploit such symmetry on big data sets. Here we present a method to exploit a general form of this symmetry on probabilistic adder nodes by transforming those probabilistic adder nodes into a probabilistic convolution tree with which dynamic programming computes exact probabilities. A substantial speedup is demonstrated using an illustration example that can arise when identifying splice forms with bottom-up mass spectrometry-based proteomics. On this example, even state-of-the-art exact inference algorithms require a runtime more than exponential in the number of splice forms considered. By using the probabilistic convolution tree, we reduce the runtime to and the space to where is the number of variables joined by an additive or cardinal operator. This approach, which can also be used with junction tree inference, is applicable to graphs with arbitrary dependency on counting variables or cardinalities and can be used on diverse problems and fields like forward error correcting codes, elemental decomposition, and spectral demixing. The approach also trivially generalizes to multiple dimensions. PMID:24626234

  4. Object-Oriented Type Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Palsberg, Jens

    1991-01-01

    We present a new approach to inferring types in untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. It guarantees that all messages are understood, annotates the program with type information, allows polymorphic methods, and can be used as the basis of an op...

  5. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

  6. Mixed normal inference on multicointegration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boswijk, H.P.

    2009-01-01

    Asymptotic likelihood analysis of cointegration in I(2) models, see Johansen (1997, 2006), Boswijk (2000) and Paruolo (2000), has shown that inference on most parameters is mixed normal, implying hypothesis test statistics with an asymptotic 2 null distribution. The asymptotic distribution of the

  7. Statistical inference and Aristotle's Rhetoric.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdonald, Ranald R

    2004-11-01

    Formal logic operates in a closed system where all the information relevant to any conclusion is present, whereas this is not the case when one reasons about events and states of the world. Pollard and Richardson drew attention to the fact that the reasoning behind statistical tests does not lead to logically justifiable conclusions. In this paper statistical inferences are defended not by logic but by the standards of everyday reasoning. Aristotle invented formal logic, but argued that people mostly get at the truth with the aid of enthymemes--incomplete syllogisms which include arguing from examples, analogies and signs. It is proposed that statistical tests work in the same way--in that they are based on examples, invoke the analogy of a model and use the size of the effect under test as a sign that the chance hypothesis is unlikely. Of existing theories of statistical inference only a weak version of Fisher's takes this into account. Aristotle anticipated Fisher by producing an argument of the form that there were too many cases in which an outcome went in a particular direction for that direction to be plausibly attributed to chance. We can therefore conclude that Aristotle would have approved of statistical inference and there is a good reason for calling this form of statistical inference classical.

  8. Young's modulus of defective graphene sheet from intrinsic thermal vibrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Siby; Mrudul, M S; Ajith, K M; Valsakumar, M C

    2016-01-01

    Classical molecular dynamics simulations have been performed to establish a relation between thermally excited ripples and Young's modulus of defective graphene sheet within a range of temperatures. The presence of the out-of-plane intrinsic ripples stabilizes the graphene membranes and the mechanical stability is analyzed by means of thermal mean square vibration amplitude in the long wavelength regime. We observed that the presence of vacancy and Stone-Wales (SW) defects reduces the Young's modulus of graphene sheets. Graphene sheet with vacancy defects possess superior Young's modulus to that of a sheet with Stone-Wales defects. The obtained room temperature Young's modulus of pristine and defective graphene sheet is ∼ 1 TPa, which is comparable to the results of earlier experimental and atomistic simulation studies. (paper)

  9. Particle pitch angle diffusion due to nonadiabatic effects in the plasma sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gray, P.C.; Lee, L.C.

    1982-01-01

    In order to understand certain aspects of the plasma sheet dynamics, a numerical study of the nonadiabatic behavior of particles in a model field geometry is performed. The particle's magnetic moment as a function of time is calculated for various initial parameters, corresponding to various particle energies and degrees of field curvature. It is shown that the magnetic moment changes as the particle passes through the plasma sheet and that the magnitude of the change is related to the curvature of the field at the middle of the plasma sheet. The relation of the magnitude of the change in magnetic moment to the particle's pitch and phase angles as it passes through the sheet is numerically resolved. The nature of the change may be considered as a mechanism for pitch angle diffusion, and the diffusion coefficient is calculated. This scattering mechanism is significant for plasma sheet ions (1--10 keV) as well as energetic electrons (>100 keV)

  10. Loading direction-dependent shear behavior at different temperatures of single-layer chiral graphene sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yang; Dong, Shuhong; Yu, Peishi; Zhao, Junhua

    2018-06-01

    The loading direction-dependent shear behavior of single-layer chiral graphene sheets at different temperatures is studied by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Our results show that the shear properties (such as shear stress-strain curves, buckling strains, and failure strains) of chiral graphene sheets strongly depend on the loading direction due to the structural asymmetry. The maximum values of both the critical buckling shear strain and the failure strain under positive shear deformation can be around 1.4 times higher than those under negative shear deformation. For a given chiral graphene sheet, both its failure strain and failure stress decrease with increasing temperature. In particular, the amplitude to wavelength ratio of wrinkles for different chiral graphene sheets under shear deformation using present MD simulations agrees well with that from the existing theory. These findings provide physical insights into the origins of the loading direction-dependent shear behavior of chiral graphene sheets and their potential applications in nanodevices.

  11. It's about time - a critique of macroecological inferences concerning plant competition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Christian Frølund; Weiner, Jacob

    2017-01-01

    Several macroecological studies have used static spatial data to evaluate plant competition in natural ecosystems and to investigate its role in plant community dynamics and species assembly. The assumptions on which the inferences are based have not been consistent with ecological knowledge....... Inferences about processes, such as competition, from static data are weak. Macroecology will benefit more from dynamic data, even if limited, than from increasingly sophisticated analyses of static spatial patterns....

  12. It's About Time: A Critique of Macroecological Inferences Concerning Plant Competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damgaard, Christian; Weiner, Jacob

    2017-02-01

    Several macroecological studies have used static spatial data to evaluate plant competition in natural ecosystems and to investigate its role in plant community dynamics and species assembly. The assumptions on which the inferences are based have not been consistent with ecological knowledge. Inferences about processes, such as competition, from static data are weak. Macroecology will benefit more from dynamic data, even if limited, than from increasingly sophisticated analyses of static spatial patterns. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. 21 CFR 880.5180 - Burn sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Burn sheet. 880.5180 Section 880.5180 Food and... Burn sheet. (a) Identification. A burn sheet is a device made of a porous material that is wrapped aroung a burn victim to retain body heat, to absorb wound exudate, and to serve as a barrier against...

  14. Manifold free multiple sheet superplastic forming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmer, John W.; Bridges, Robert L.

    2004-01-13

    Fluid-forming compositions in a container attached to enclosed adjacent sheets are heated to relatively high temperatures to generate fluids (gases) that effect inflation of the sheets. Fluid rates to the enclosed space between the sheets can be regulated by the canal from the container. Inflated articles can be produced by a continuous, rather than batch-type, process.

  15. On the possible eigenoscillations of neutral sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almeida, W.A.; Costa, J.M. da; Aruquipa, E.G.; Sudano, J.P.

    1974-12-01

    A neutral sheet model with hyperbolic tangent equilibrium magnetic field and hyperbolic square secant density profiles is considered. It is shown that the equation for small oscillations takes the form of an eigenvalue oscillation problem. Computed eigenfrequencies of the geomagnetic neutral sheet were found to be in the range of the resonant frequencies of the geomagnetic plasma sheet computed by other authors

  16. Tectonic imprints upon inferences of eustatic sea level history: the Pliocene warm period and the Orangeburg Scarp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandan, D.; Peltier, W. R.

    2013-12-01

    structure inferred from tomography. Following a transient shock associated with the assimilation process, the model makes rather stable predictions for the time dependence of dynamic topography at a number of important locations from which data have been selected for the purpose of inferring the mid-Pliocene eustatic sea level. At Orangeburg where the inferred rates of tectonic uplift have ranged from 0.005 to 0.02 mm/yr (Dowsett and Cronin (1990), Soller (1989)) our model predicts an uplift rate of 0.024 mm/yr. This is sufficiently high to leave little room for any significant increase in eustatic sea level beyond what is expected to have existed as a consequence of the fact that the Greenland ice sheet had yet to fully form. Dowsett and Cronin (1990), Geology, 18, 435-438 Miller et al (2012), Geology, 40, 407-410 Pari and Peltier (2000), J. Geophys. Res., 105, 5635-5662 Rowley et al (2013), Science, 340, 1560-1563 Shahnas and Peltier (2010), J. Geophys. Res., 115, B11 Shahnas and Peltier (2011), J. Geophys. Res., 116, B8 Soller (1989), USGS professional paper, 1466-A

  17. Inference of population history and patterns from molecular data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tataru, Paula

    , the existing mathematical models and computational methods need to be reformulated. I address this from an inference perspective in two areas of bioinformatics. Population genetics studies the influence exerted by various factors on the dynamics of a population's genetic variation. These factors cover...... evolutionary forces, such as mutation and selection, but also changes in population size. The aim in population genetics is to untangle the history of a population from observed genetic variation. This subject is dominated by two dual models, the Wright-Fisher and coalescent. I first introduce a new...... approximation to the Wright-Fisher model, which I show to accurately infer split times between populations. This approximation can potentially be applied for inference of mutation rates and selection coefficients. I then illustrate how the coalescent process is the natural framework for detecting traces...

  18. Currency Mismatch, Balance-sheet effect and Monetary Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Nakamura, Chikafumi

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyzes the impact of the currency mismatch between assets and liabilities on monetary policy. The currency mismatch causes macroeconomic instability through balance-sheet effects. To analyze the problem, we apply a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with international credit-market imperfections. As a result, despitethe currency mismatch and high trade openness, a targeting rule to address the terms of trade is not efficient. This result depends on...

  19. Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352 (United States); Li, Zhen [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); Karniadakis, George Em, E-mail: george_karniadakis@brown.edu [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States)

    2017-02-01

    We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are “sparse”. The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.

  20. Ice sheet hydrology from observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansson, Peter [Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ-, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2010-11-15

    The hydrological systems of ice sheets are complex. Our view of the system is split, largely due to the complexity of observing the systems. Our basic knowledge of processes have been obtained from smaller glaciers and although applicable in general to the larger scales of the ice sheets, ice sheets contain features not observable on smaller glaciers due to their size. The generation of water on the ice sheet surface is well understood and can be satisfactorily modeled. The routing of water from the surface down through the ice is not complicated in terms of procat has been problematic is the way in which the couplings between surface and bed has been accomplished through a kilometer of cold ice, but with the studies on crack propagation and lake drainage on Greenland we are beginning to understand also this process and we know water can be routed through thick cold ice. Water generation at the bed is also well understood but the main problem preventing realistic estimates of water generation is lack of detailed information about geothermal heat fluxes and their geographical distribution beneath the ice. Although some average value for geothermal heat flux may suffice, for many purposes it is important that such values are not applied to sub-regions of significantly higher fluxes. Water generated by geothermal heat constitutes a constant supply and will likely maintain a steady system beneath the ice sheet. Such a system may include subglacial lakes as steady features and reconfiguration of the system is tied to time scales on which the ice sheet geometry changes so as to change pressure gradients in the basal system itself. Large scale re-organization of subglacial drainage systems have been observed beneath ice streams. The stability of an entirely subglacially fed drainage system may hence be perturbed by rapid ice flow. In the case of Antarctic ice streams where such behavior has been observed, the ice streams are underlain by deformable sediments. It is

  1. Periodic folding of viscous sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribe, Neil M.

    2003-09-01

    The periodic folding of a sheet of viscous fluid falling upon a rigid surface is a common fluid mechanical instability that occurs in contexts ranging from food processing to geophysics. Asymptotic thin-layer equations for the combined stretching-bending deformation of a two-dimensional sheet are solved numerically to determine the folding frequency as a function of the sheet’s initial thickness, the pouring speed, the height of fall, and the fluid properties. As the buoyancy increases, the system bifurcates from “forced” folding driven kinematically by fluid extrusion to “free” folding in which viscous resistance to bending is balanced by buoyancy. The systematics of the numerically predicted folding frequency are in good agreement with laboratory experiments.

  2. Ice sheet hydrology from observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansson, Peter

    2010-11-01

    The hydrological systems of ice sheets are complex. Our view of the system is split, largely due to the complexity of observing the systems. Our basic knowledge of processes have been obtained from smaller glaciers and although applicable in general to the larger scales of the ice sheets, ice sheets contain features not observable on smaller glaciers due to their size. The generation of water on the ice sheet surface is well understood and can be satisfactorily modeled. The routing of water from the surface down through the ice is not complicated in terms of procat has been problematic is the way in which the couplings between surface and bed has been accomplished through a kilometer of cold ice, but with the studies on crack propagation and lake drainage on Greenland we are beginning to understand also this process and we know water can be routed through thick cold ice. Water generation at the bed is also well understood but the main problem preventing realistic estimates of water generation is lack of detailed information about geothermal heat fluxes and their geographical distribution beneath the ice. Although some average value for geothermal heat flux may suffice, for many purposes it is important that such values are not applied to sub-regions of significantly higher fluxes. Water generated by geothermal heat constitutes a constant supply and will likely maintain a steady system beneath the ice sheet. Such a system may include subglacial lakes as steady features and reconfiguration of the system is tied to time scales on which the ice sheet geometry changes so as to change pressure gradients in the basal system itself. Large scale re-organization of subglacial drainage systems have been observed beneath ice streams. The stability of an entirely subglacially fed drainage system may hence be perturbed by rapid ice flow. In the case of Antarctic ice streams where such behavior has been observed, the ice streams are underlain by deformable sediments. It is

  3. Load Test in Sheet Pile

    OpenAIRE

    Luis Orlando Ibanez

    2016-01-01

    In this work, are discussed experiences in the use of mathematical modeling and testing in hydraulic engineering structures. For this purpose the results of load tests in sheet pile, evaluating horizontal and vertical deformations that occur in the same exposed. Comparisons between theoretical methods for calculating deformations and mathematical models based on the Finite Element Method are established. Finally, the coincidence between the numerical model and the results of the load test ful...

  4. Ohm's law for a current sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, L. R.; Speiser, T. W.

    1985-01-01

    The paper derives an Ohm's law for single-particle motion in a current sheet, where the magnetic field reverses in direction across the sheet. The result is considerably different from the resistive Ohm's law often used in MHD studies of the geomagnetic tail. Single-particle analysis is extended to obtain a self-consistency relation for a current sheet which agrees with previous results. The results are applicable to the concept of reconnection in that the electric field parallel to the current is obtained for a one-dimensional current sheet with constant normal magnetic field. Dissipated energy goes directly into accelerating particles within the current sheet.

  5. Curvature-induced stiffness and the spatial variation of wavelength in wrinkled sheets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Joseph D; Hohlfeld, Evan; King, Hunter; Huang, Jiangshui; Qiu, Zhanlong; Russell, Thomas P; Menon, Narayanan; Vella, Dominic; Davidovitch, Benny

    2016-02-02

    Wrinkle patterns in compressed thin sheets are ubiquitous in nature and technology, from the furrows on our foreheads to crinkly plant leaves, from ripples on plastic-wrapped objects to the protein film on milk. The current understanding of an elementary descriptor of wrinkles--their wavelength--is restricted to deformations that are parallel, spatially uniform, and nearly planar. However, most naturally occurring wrinkles do not satisfy these stipulations. Here we present a scheme that quantitatively explains the wrinkle wavelength beyond such idealized situations. We propose a local law that incorporates both mechanical and geometrical effects on the spatial variation of wrinkle wavelength. Our experiments on thin polymer films provide strong evidence for its validity. Understanding how wavelength depends on the properties of the sheet and the underlying liquid or elastic subphase is crucial for applications where wrinkles are used to sculpt surface topography, to measure properties of the sheet, or to infer forces applied to a film.

  6. Understanding Greenland ice sheet hydrology using an integrated multi-scale approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rennermalm, A K; Moustafa, S E; Mioduszewski, J; Robinson, D A; Chu, V W; Smith, L C; Forster, R R; Hagedorn, B; Harper, J T; Mote, T L; Shuman, C A; Tedesco, M

    2013-01-01

    Improved understanding of Greenland ice sheet hydrology is critically important for assessing its impact on current and future ice sheet dynamics and global sea level rise. This has motivated the collection and integration of in situ observations, model development, and remote sensing efforts to quantify meltwater production, as well as its phase changes, transport, and export. Particularly urgent is a better understanding of albedo feedbacks leading to enhanced surface melt, potential positive feedbacks between ice sheet hydrology and dynamics, and meltwater retention in firn. These processes are not isolated, but must be understood as part of a continuum of processes within an integrated system. This letter describes a systems approach to the study of Greenland ice sheet hydrology, emphasizing component interconnections and feedbacks, and highlighting research and observational needs. (letter)

  7. Magnetic reconnection and current sheet formation in 3D magnetic configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, A.G.

    1999-01-01

    The problem of magnetic reconnection in three-dimensional (3D) magnetic configurations has been studied experimentally. The research has concentrated on the possibilities of formation of current sheets, which represent crucial objects for a realization of magnetic reconnection phenomena. Different types of 3D magnetic configurations were examined, including configurations with singular lines of the X-type, non-uniform fields containing isolated magnetic null-points and without null-points. It was revealed that formation of quasi-one-dimensional current sheets is the universal process for plasma dynamics in 3D magnetic fields both with null-points and without. At the same time the peculiarities of current sheets, plasma dynamics and magnetic reconnection processes depend essentially on characteristics of 3D magnetic configurations. The result of principal significance obtained was that magnetic reconnection phenomena can take place in a wide range of 3D magnetic configurations as a consequence of their ability to form current sheets. (author)

  8. Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) Contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship with other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice-sheetclimate models as well as standalone ice-sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice-sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change.

  9. Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2017-08-01

    The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

  10. Experimental formability analysis of bondal sandwich sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kami, Abdolvahed; Banabic, Dorel

    2018-05-01

    Metal/polymer/metal sandwich sheets have recently attracted the interests of industries like automotive industry. These sandwich sheets have superior properties over single-layer metallic sheets including good sound and vibration damping and light weight. However, the formability of these sandwich sheets should be enhanced which requires more research. In this paper, the formability of Bondal sheet (DC06/viscoelastic polymer/DC06 sandwich sheet) was studied through different types of experiments. The mechanical properties of Bondal were determined by uniaxial tensile tests. Hemispherical punch stretching and hydraulic bulge tests were carried out to determine the forming limit diagram (FLD) of Bondal. Furthermore, cylindrical and square cup drawing tests were performed in dry and oil lubricated conditions. These tests were conducted at different blank holding forces (BHFs). An interesting observation about Bondal sheet deep drawing was obtaining of higher drawing depths at dry condition in comparison with oil-lubricated condition.

  11. Buckling and stretching of thin viscous sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Kiely, Doireann; Breward, Chris; Griffiths, Ian; Howell, Peter; Lange, Ulrich

    2016-11-01

    Thin glass sheets are used in smartphone, battery and semiconductor technology, and may be manufactured by producing a relatively thick glass slab and subsequently redrawing it to a required thickness. The resulting sheets commonly possess undesired centerline ripples and thick edges. We present a mathematical model in which a viscous sheet undergoes redraw in the direction of gravity, and show that, in a sufficiently strong gravitational field, buckling is driven by compression in a region near the bottom of the sheet, and limited by viscous resistance to stretching of the sheet. We use asymptotic analysis in the thin-sheet, low-Reynolds-number limit to determine the centerline profile and growth rate of such a viscous sheet.

  12. The Distribution of Basal Water Beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet from Radio-Echo Sounding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, T.; Williams, C.; Schroeder, D. M.; Martos, Y. M.; Cooper, M.; Siegert, M. J.; Paden, J. D.; Huybrechts, P.; Bamber, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    There is widespread, but often indirect, evidence that a significant fraction of the Greenland Ice Sheet is thawed at the bed. This includes major outlet glaciers and around the NorthGRIP ice-core in the interior. However, the ice-sheet-wide distribution of basal water is poorly constrained by existing observations, and the spatial relationship between basal water and other ice-sheet and subglacial properties is therefore largely unexplored. In principle, airborne radio-echo sounding (RES) surveys provide the necessary information and spatial coverage to infer the presence of basal water at the ice-sheet scale. However, due to uncertainty and spatial variation in radar signal attenuation, the commonly used water diagnostic, bed-echo reflectivity, is highly ambiguous and prone to spatial bias. Here we introduce a new RES diagnostic for the presence of basal water which incorporates both sharp step-transitions and rapid fluctuations in bed-echo reflectivity. This has the advantage of being (near) independent of attenuation model, and enables a decade of recent Operation Ice Bride RES survey data to be combined in a single map for basal water. The ice-sheet-wide water predictions are compared with: bed topography and drainage network structure, existing knowledge of the thermal state and geothermal heat flux, and ice velocity. In addition to the fast flowing ice-sheet margins, we also demonstrate widespread water routing and storage in parts of the slow-flowing northern interior. Notably, this includes a quasi-linear `corridor' of basal water, extending from NorthGRIP to Petermann glacier, which spatially correlates with a region of locally high (magnetic-derived) geothermal heat flux. The predicted water distribution places a new constraint upon the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and could be used as an input for ice-sheet model simulations.

  13. Statistical learning and selective inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jonathan; Tibshirani, Robert J

    2015-06-23

    We describe the problem of "selective inference." This addresses the following challenge: Having mined a set of data to find potential associations, how do we properly assess the strength of these associations? The fact that we have "cherry-picked"--searched for the strongest associations--means that we must set a higher bar for declaring significant the associations that we see. This challenge becomes more important in the era of big data and complex statistical modeling. The cherry tree (dataset) can be very large and the tools for cherry picking (statistical learning methods) are now very sophisticated. We describe some recent new developments in selective inference and illustrate their use in forward stepwise regression, the lasso, and principal components analysis.

  14. Bayesian inference with ecological applications

    CERN Document Server

    Link, William A

    2009-01-01

    This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

  15. Statistical inference an integrated approach

    CERN Document Server

    Migon, Helio S; Louzada, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Information The concept of probability Assessing subjective probabilities An example Linear algebra and probability Notation Outline of the bookElements of Inference Common statistical modelsLikelihood-based functions Bayes theorem Exchangeability Sufficiency and exponential family Parameter elimination Prior Distribution Entirely subjective specification Specification through functional forms Conjugacy with the exponential family Non-informative priors Hierarchical priors Estimation Introduction to decision theoryBayesian point estimation Classical point estimation Empirical Bayes estimation Comparison of estimators Interval estimation Estimation in the Normal model Approximating Methods The general problem of inference Optimization techniquesAsymptotic theory Other analytical approximations Numerical integration methods Simulation methods Hypothesis Testing Introduction Classical hypothesis testingBayesian hypothesis testing Hypothesis testing and confidence intervalsAsymptotic tests Prediction...

  16. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

    Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  17. Causal inference based on counterfactuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Höfler M

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept.

  18. System Support for Forensic Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehani, Ashish; Kirchner, Florent; Shankar, Natarajan

    Digital evidence is playing an increasingly important role in prosecuting crimes. The reasons are manifold: financially lucrative targets are now connected online, systems are so complex that vulnerabilities abound and strong digital identities are being adopted, making audit trails more useful. If the discoveries of forensic analysts are to hold up to scrutiny in court, they must meet the standard for scientific evidence. Software systems are currently developed without consideration of this fact. This paper argues for the development of a formal framework for constructing “digital artifacts” that can serve as proxies for physical evidence; a system so imbued would facilitate sound digital forensic inference. A case study involving a filesystem augmentation that provides transparent support for forensic inference is described.

  19. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  20. Statistical inference on residual life

    CERN Document Server

    Jeong, Jong-Hyeon

    2014-01-01

    This is a monograph on the concept of residual life, which is an alternative summary measure of time-to-event data, or survival data. The mean residual life has been used for many years under the name of life expectancy, so it is a natural concept for summarizing survival or reliability data. It is also more interpretable than the popular hazard function, especially for communications between patients and physicians regarding the efficacy of a new drug in the medical field. This book reviews existing statistical methods to infer the residual life distribution. The review and comparison includes existing inference methods for mean and median, or quantile, residual life analysis through medical data examples. The concept of the residual life is also extended to competing risks analysis. The targeted audience includes biostatisticians, graduate students, and PhD (bio)statisticians. Knowledge in survival analysis at an introductory graduate level is advisable prior to reading this book.

  1. Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter

    2015-01-01

    As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...

  2. Statistical inference a short course

    CERN Document Server

    Panik, Michael J

    2012-01-01

    A concise, easily accessible introduction to descriptive and inferential techniques Statistical Inference: A Short Course offers a concise presentation of the essentials of basic statistics for readers seeking to acquire a working knowledge of statistical concepts, measures, and procedures. The author conducts tests on the assumption of randomness and normality, provides nonparametric methods when parametric approaches might not work. The book also explores how to determine a confidence interval for a population median while also providing coverage of ratio estimation, randomness, and causal

  3. On Quantum Statistical Inference, II

    OpenAIRE

    Barndorff-Nielsen, O. E.; Gill, R. D.; Jupp, P. E.

    2003-01-01

    Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, theoretical developments in the theory of quantum measurements have brought the basic mathematical framework for the probability calculations much closer to that of classical probability theory. The present paper reviews this field and proposes and inte...

  4. Nonparametric predictive inference in reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Schrijner, P.; Yan, K.J.

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a recently developed statistical approach, called nonparametric predictive inference (NPI), to reliability. Bounds for the survival function for a future observation are presented. We illustrate how NPI can deal with right-censored data, and discuss aspects of competing risks. We present possible applications of NPI for Bernoulli data, and we briefly outline applications of NPI for replacement decisions. The emphasis is on introduction and illustration of NPI in reliability contexts, detailed mathematical justifications are presented elsewhere

  5. Modeling the Fracture of Ice Sheets on Parallel Computers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waisman, Haim [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Tuminaro, Ray [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2013-10-10

    The objective of this project was to investigate the complex fracture of ice and understand its role within larger ice sheet simulations and global climate change. This objective was achieved by developing novel physics based models for ice, novel numerical tools to enable the modeling of the physics and by collaboration with the ice community experts. At the present time, ice fracture is not explicitly considered within ice sheet models due in part to large computational costs associated with the accurate modeling of this complex phenomena. However, fracture not only plays an extremely important role in regional behavior but also influences ice dynamics over much larger zones in ways that are currently not well understood. To this end, our research findings through this project offers significant advancement to the field and closes a large gap of knowledge in understanding and modeling the fracture of ice sheets in the polar regions. Thus, we believe that our objective has been achieved and our research accomplishments are significant. This is corroborated through a set of published papers, posters and presentations at technical conferences in the field. In particular significant progress has been made in the mechanics of ice, fracture of ice sheets and ice shelves in polar regions and sophisticated numerical methods that enable the solution of the physics in an efficient way.

  6. Variational inference & deep learning : A new synthesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, D.P.

    2017-01-01

    In this thesis, Variational Inference and Deep Learning: A New Synthesis, we propose novel solutions to the problems of variational (Bayesian) inference, generative modeling, representation learning, semi-supervised learning, and stochastic optimization.

  7. Variational inference & deep learning: A new synthesis

    OpenAIRE

    Kingma, D.P.

    2017-01-01

    In this thesis, Variational Inference and Deep Learning: A New Synthesis, we propose novel solutions to the problems of variational (Bayesian) inference, generative modeling, representation learning, semi-supervised learning, and stochastic optimization.

  8. Continuous Integrated Invariant Inference, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed project will develop a new technique for invariant inference and embed this and other current invariant inference and checking techniques in an...

  9. Airy acoustical-sheet spinner tweezers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitri, F. G.

    2016-09-01

    The Airy acoustical beam exhibits parabolic propagation and spatial acceleration, meaning that the propagation bending angle continuously increases before the beam trajectory reaches a critical angle where it decays after a propagation distance, without applying any external bending force. As such, it is of particular importance to investigate its properties from the standpoint of acoustical radiation force, spin torque, and particle dynamics theories, in the development of novel particle sorting techniques and acoustically mediated clearing systems. This work investigates these effects on a two-dimensional (2D) circular absorptive structure placed in the field of a nonparaxial Airy "acoustical-sheet" (i.e., finite beam in 2D), for potential applications in surface acoustic waves and acousto-fluidics. Based on the characteristics of the acoustic field, the beam is capable of manipulating the circular cylindrical fluid cross-section and guides it along a transverse or parabolic trajectory. This feature of Airy acoustical beams could lead to a unique characteristic in single-beam acoustical tweezers related to acoustical sieving, filtering, and removal of particles and cells from a section of a small channel. The analysis developed here is based on the description of the nonparaxial Airy beam using the angular spectrum decomposition of plane waves in close association with the partial-wave series expansion method in cylindrical coordinates. The numerical results demonstrate the ability of the nonparaxial Airy acoustical-sheet beam to pull, propel, or accelerate a particle along a parabolic trajectory, in addition to particle confinement in the transverse direction of wave propagation. Negative or positive radiation force and spin torque causing rotation in the clockwise or the anticlockwise direction can occur depending on the nondimensional parameter ka (where k is the wavenumber and a is the radius) and the location of the cylinder in the beam. Applications in

  10. Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-09

    inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

  11. Adaptive Inference on General Graphical Models

    OpenAIRE

    Acar, Umut A.; Ihler, Alexander T.; Mettu, Ramgopal; Sumer, Ozgur

    2012-01-01

    Many algorithms and applications involve repeatedly solving variations of the same inference problem; for example we may want to introduce new evidence to the model or perform updates to conditional dependencies. The goal of adaptive inference is to take advantage of what is preserved in the model and perform inference more rapidly than from scratch. In this paper, we describe techniques for adaptive inference on general graphs that support marginal computation and updates to the conditional ...

  12. VESL: The Virtual Earth Sheet Laboratory for Ice Sheet Modeling and Visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, D. L. C.; Larour, E. Y.; Quinn, J. D.; Halkides, D. J.

    2016-12-01

    We introduce the Virtual Earth System Laboratory (VESL), a scientific modeling and visualization tool delivered through an integrated web portal for dissemination of data, simulation of physical processes, and promotion of climate literacy. The current prototype leverages NASA's Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a state-of-the-art polar ice sheet dynamics model developed at the Jet Propulsion Lab and UC Irvine. We utilize the Emscripten source-to-source compiler to convert the C/C++ ISSM engine core to JavaScript, and bundled pre/post-processing JS scripts to be compatible with the existing ISSM Python/Matlab API. Researchers using VESL will be able to effectively present their work for public dissemination with little-to-no additional post-processing. This will allow for faster publication in peer-reviewed journals and adaption of results for educational applications. Through future application of this concept to multiple aspects of the Earth System, VESL has the potential to broaden data applications in the geosciences and beyond. At this stage, we seek feedback from the greater scientific and public outreach communities regarding the ease of use and feature set of VESL, as we plan its expansion, and aim to achieve more rapid communication and presentation of scientific results.

  13. VESL: The Virtual Earth Sheet Laboratory for Ice Sheet Modeling and Visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, D. L. C.; Larour, E. Y.; Quinn, J. D.; Halkides, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    We present the Virtual Earth System Laboratory (VESL), a scientific modeling and visualization tool delivered through an integrated web portal. This allows for the dissemination of data, simulation of physical processes, and promotion of climate literacy. The current iteration leverages NASA's Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a state-of-the-art polar ice sheet dynamics model developed at the Jet Propulsion Lab and UC Irvine. We utilize the Emscripten source-to-source compiler to convert the C/C++ ISSM engine core to JavaScript, and bundled pre/post-processing JS scripts to be compatible with the existing ISSM Python/Matlab API. Researchers using VESL will be able to effectively present their work for public dissemination with little-to-no additional post-processing. Moreover, the portal allows for real time visualization and editing of models, cloud based computational simulation, and downloads of relevant data. This allows for faster publication in peer-reviewed journals and adaption of results for educational applications. Through application of this concept to multiple aspects of the Earth System, VESL is able to broaden data applications in the geosciences and beyond. At this stage, we still seek feedback from the greater scientific and public outreach communities regarding the ease of use and feature set of VESL. As we plan its expansion, we aim to achieve more rapid communication and presentation of scientific results.

  14. Tracing Internal Radar Layers in the Greenland Ice Sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panton, Christian

    Internal layers in radio-echograms from the sounding of ice sheets have long been a valuable resource in glaciology, but their usefulness have been limited by availability of traced (digitized) layers. To speed up this process, we have developed an algorithm for semi-automatic tracing the internal...... layers and a fully automated algorithm for mapping the layer slope. The layer slope is inferred by the intensity response to a slanted Gaussian filter, whereafter layers can be traced using an active contour model. With these techniques we show that it possible to trace internal layers over distances...... of hundreds kilometers with minimal operator intervention, and the methods have been successfully validated between two Greenland deep ice cores with internal match points. In order to remove any operator assistance, we show how the layer slope can be used to detect disturbances in the deep radiostratigraphy...

  15. The Svalbard-Barents Sea ice-sheet - Historical, current and future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingólfsson, Ólafur; Landvik, Jon Y.

    2013-03-01

    The history of research on the Late Quaternary Svalbard-Barents Sea ice sheet mirrors the developments of ideas and the shifts of paradigms in glacial theory over the past 150 years. Since the onset of scientific research there in the early 19th Century, Svalbard has been a natural laboratory where ideas and concepts have been tested, and played an important (but rarely acknowledged) role in the break-through of the Ice Age theory in the 1870's. The history of how the scientific perception of the Svalbard-Barents sea ice sheet developed in the mid-20th Century also tells a story of how a combination of fairly scattered and often contradictory observational data, and through both deductive and inductive reasoning, could outline a major ice sheet that had left but few tangible fingerprints. Since the 1980's, with increased terrestrial stratigraphical data, ever more marine geological evidence and better chronological control of glacial events, our perception of the Svalbard-Barents Sea ice sheet has changed. The first reconstructions depicted it as a static, concentric, single-domed ice sheet, with ice flowing from an ice divide over the central northern Barents Sea that expanded and declined in response to large-scale, Late Quaternary climate fluctuations, and which was more or less in tune with other major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. We now increasingly perceive it as a very dynamic, multidomed ice sheet, controlled by climate fluctuations, relative sea-level change, as well as subglacial topography, substrate properties and basal temperature. In this respect, the Svalbard-Barents Sea ice sheet will increasingly hold the key for understanding the dynamics and processes of how marine-based ice sheets build-up and decay.

  16. A statistical study on the correlations between plasma sheet and solar wind based on DSP explorations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Q. Yan

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available By using the data of two spacecraft, TC-1 and ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer, a statistical study on the correlations between plasma sheet and solar wind has been carried out. The results obtained show that the plasma sheet at geocentric distances of about 9~13.4 Re has an apparent driving relationship with the solar wind. It is found that (1 there is a positive correlation between the duskward component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF and the duskward component of the geomagnetic field in the plasma sheet, with a proportionality constant of about 1.09. It indicates that the duskward component of the IMF can effectively penetrate into the near-Earth plasma sheet, and can be amplified by sunward convection in the corresponding region at geocentric distances of about 9~13.4 Re; (2 the increase in the density or the dynamic pressure of the solar wind will generally lead to the increase in the density of the plasma sheet; (3 the ion thermal pressure in the near-Earth plasma sheet is significantly controlled by the dynamic pressure of solar wind; (4 under the northward IMF condition, the ion temperature and ion thermal pressure in the plasma sheet decrease as the solar wind speed increases. This feature indicates that plasmas in the near-Earth plasma sheet can come from the magnetosheath through the LLBL. Northward IMF is one important condition for the transport of the cold plasmas of the magnetosheath into the plasma sheet through the LLBL, and fast solar wind will enhance such a transport process.

  17. Strontium-90 fluoride data sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fullam, H.T.

    1981-06-01

    This report is a compilation of available data and appropriate literature references on the properties of strontium-90 fluoride and nonradioactive strontium fluoride. The objective of the document is to compile in a single source pertinent data to assist potential users in the development, licensing, and use of /sup 90/SrF/sub 2/-fueled radioisotope heat sources for terrestrial power conversion and thermal applications. The report is an update of the Strontium-90 Fluoride Data Sheet (BNWL-2284) originally issued in April 1977.

  18. Vietnamese Hurricane Response Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Các tờ dữ kiện được cung cấp nơi đây mô tả vai trò của EPA trong việc đáp ứng với bão và cách các chương trình cụ thể cung cấp sự hỗ trợ. The Vietnamese fact sheets provided here describe EPA's role in a hurricane response.

  19. More than one kind of inference: re-examining what's learned in feature inference and classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweller, Naomi; Hayes, Brett K

    2010-08-01

    Three studies examined how task demands that impact on attention to typical or atypical category features shape the category representations formed through classification learning and inference learning. During training categories were learned via exemplar classification or by inferring missing exemplar features. In the latter condition inferences were made about missing typical features alone (typical feature inference) or about both missing typical and atypical features (mixed feature inference). Classification and mixed feature inference led to the incorporation of typical and atypical features into category representations, with both kinds of features influencing inferences about familiar (Experiments 1 and 2) and novel (Experiment 3) test items. Those in the typical inference condition focused primarily on typical features. Together with formal modelling, these results challenge previous accounts that have characterized inference learning as producing a focus on typical category features. The results show that two different kinds of inference learning are possible and that these are subserved by different kinds of category representations.

  20. AI applications in sheet metal forming

    CERN Document Server

    Hussein, Hussein

    2017-01-01

    This book comprises chapters on research work done around the globe in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) applications in sheet metal forming. The first chapter offers an introduction to various AI techniques and sheet metal forming, while subsequent chapters describe traditional procedures/methods used in various sheet metal forming processes, and focus on the automation of those processes by means of AI techniques, such as KBS, ANN, GA, CBR, etc. Feature recognition and the manufacturability assessment of sheet metal parts, process planning, strip-layout design, selecting the type and size of die components, die modeling, and predicting die life are some of the most important aspects of sheet metal work. Traditionally, these activities are highly experience-based, tedious and time consuming. In response, researchers in several countries have applied various AI techniques to automate these activities, which are covered in this book. This book will be useful for engineers working in sheet metal industri...

  1. Generative inference for cultural evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandler, Anne; Powell, Adam

    2018-04-05

    One of the major challenges in cultural evolution is to understand why and how various forms of social learning are used in human populations, both now and in the past. To date, much of the theoretical work on social learning has been done in isolation of data, and consequently many insights focus on revealing the learning processes or the distributions of cultural variants that are expected to have evolved in human populations. In population genetics, recent methodological advances have allowed a greater understanding of the explicit demographic and/or selection mechanisms that underlie observed allele frequency distributions across the globe, and their change through time. In particular, generative frameworks-often using coalescent-based simulation coupled with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)-have provided robust inferences on the human past, with no reliance on a priori assumptions of equilibrium. Here, we demonstrate the applicability and utility of generative inference approaches to the field of cultural evolution. The framework advocated here uses observed population-level frequency data directly to establish the likely presence or absence of particular hypothesized learning strategies. In this context, we discuss the problem of equifinality and argue that, in the light of sparse cultural data and the multiplicity of possible social learning processes, the exclusion of those processes inconsistent with the observed data might be the most instructive outcome. Finally, we summarize the findings of generative inference approaches applied to a number of case studies.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  2. sick: The Spectroscopic Inference Crank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Andrew R.

    2016-03-01

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  3. Inferring network structure from cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghonge, Sushrut; Vural, Dervis Can

    2017-07-01

    Many physical, biological, and social phenomena can be described by cascades taking place on a network. Often, the activity can be empirically observed, but not the underlying network of interactions. In this paper we offer three topological methods to infer the structure of any directed network given a set of cascade arrival times. Our formulas hold for a very general class of models where the activation probability of a node is a generic function of its degree and the number of its active neighbors. We report high success rates for synthetic and real networks, for several different cascade models.

  4. SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casey, Andrew R., E-mail: arc@ast.cam.ac.uk [Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambdridge, CB3 0HA (United Kingdom)

    2016-03-15

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  5. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  6. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2013-01-01

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  7. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas D.; Rumi, Rafael; Salmeron, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability techniques (like fault trees and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (the so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability.

  8. SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casey, Andrew R.

    2016-01-01

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  9. Pulsar glitch dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morley, P. D.

    2018-01-01

    We discuss pulsar glitch dynamics from three different viewpoints: statistical description, neutron star equation of state description and finally an electromagnetic field description. For the latter, the pulsar glitch recovery times are the dissipation time constants of sheet surface currents created in response to the glitch-induced crustal magnetic field disruption. We mathematically derive these glitch time constants (Ohmic time constant and Hall sheet current time constant) from a perturbation analysis of the electromagnetic induction equation. Different crustal channels will carry the sheet surface current and their different electron densities determine the time constants.

  10. Time-dependent first-principles study of angle-resolved secondary electron emission from atomic sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueda, Yoshihiro; Suzuki, Yasumitsu; Watanabe, Kazuyuki

    2018-02-01

    Angle-resolved secondary electron emission (ARSEE) spectra were analyzed for two-dimensional atomic sheets using a time-dependent first-principles simulation of electron scattering. We demonstrate that the calculated ARSEE spectra capture the unoccupied band structure of the atomic sheets. The excitation dynamics that lead to SEE have also been revealed by the time-dependent Kohn-Sham decomposition scheme. In the present study, the mechanism for the experimentally observed ARSEE from atomic sheets is elucidated with respect to both energetics and the dynamical aspects of SEE.

  11. Magnetic properties of sheet silicates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballet, O.; Coey, J.M.D.

    1982-01-01

    Susceptibility, magnetisation and Moessbauer measurements are reported for a representative selection of 2:1 layer phyllosilicates. Eight samples from the mica, vermiculite and smectite groups include examples diluted in iron which are paramagnetic at all temperatures, as well as iron-rich silicates which order magnetically below 10 K. Anisotropic susceptibility of crystals of muscovite, biotite and vermiculite is quantitatively explained with a model where the Fe 2+ ions lie in sites of effective trigonal symmetry, the trigonal axis lying normal to the sheets. The ferrous ground state is an orbital singlet. Ferric iron gives an isotropic contribution to the susceptibility. Fe 2+ -Fe 2+ exchange interactions are ferromagnetic with Gapprox. equal to2 K, whereas Fe 3+ -Fe 3+ coupling is antiferromagnetic in the purely ferric minerals. A positive paramagnetic Curie temperature for glauconite may be attributable to Fe 2+ → Fe 3+ charge transfer. Magnetic order was found to set in inhomogeneously for glauconite at 1-7 K. One biotite sample showed an antiferromagnetic transition at Tsub(N) = 7 K marked by a well-defined susceptibility maximum. Its magnetic structure, consisting of ferromagnetic sheets with moments in their planes coupled antiferromagnetically by other, weak interactions, resembles that found earlier for the 1:1 mineral greenalite. (orig.)

  12. Ice sheet-ocean interactions and sea level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heimbach, Patrick

    2014-03-01

    Mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has increased rapidly since the mid-1990s. Their combined loss now accounts for about one-third of global sea level rise. In Greenland, a growing body of evidence points to the marine margins of these glaciers as the region from which this dynamic response originated. Similarly, ice streams in West Antarctica that feed vast floating ice shelves have exhibited large decadal changes. We review observational evidence and present physical mechanisms that might explain the observed changes, in particular in the context of ice sheet-ocean interactions. Processes involve cover 7 orders of magnitudes of scales, ranging from mm boundary-layer processes to basin-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean variability. We discuss observational needs to fill the gap in our mechanistic understanding.

  13. SST and ice sheet impacts on the MIS-13 climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muri, Helene; Berger, Andre; Yin, Qiuzhen; Sundaram, Suchithra [Universite catholique de Louvain, Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Louvain la Neuve (Belgium); Voldoire, Aurore; Melia, David Salas Y. [CNRM-GAME Meteo-France/CNRS, Toulouse Cedex (France)

    2012-10-15

    sheets and SST play a non-negligible role and should be taken into consideration in GCM studies. Preliminary fully coupled AOGCM results presented here further substantiate the finding of stronger MIS-13 monsoons and a reinforcement from ice sheets. This work increases our understanding of the signals found in the paleo-observations and the dynamics of the complex East Asian Summer Monsoon. (orig.)

  14. Weld Repair of Thin Aluminum Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beuyukian, C. S.; Mitchell, M. J.

    1986-01-01

    Weld repairing of thin aluminum sheets now possible, using niobium shield and copper heat sinks. Refractory niobium shield protects aluminum adjacent to hole, while copper heat sinks help conduct heat away from repair site. Technique limits tungsten/inert-gas (TIG) welding bombardment zone to melt area, leaving surrounding areas around weld unaffected. Used successfully to repair aluminum cold plates on Space Shuttle, Commercial applications, especially in sealing fractures, dents, and holes in thin aluminum face sheets or clad brazing sheet in cold plates, heat exchangers, coolers, and Solar panels. While particularly suited to thin aluminum sheet, this process also used in thicker aluminum material to prevent surface damage near weld area.

  15. Subjective randomness as statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Thomas L; Daniels, Dylan; Austerweil, Joseph L; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

    2018-06-01

    Some events seem more random than others. For example, when tossing a coin, a sequence of eight heads in a row does not seem very random. Where do these intuitions about randomness come from? We argue that subjective randomness can be understood as the result of a statistical inference assessing the evidence that an event provides for having been produced by a random generating process. We show how this account provides a link to previous work relating randomness to algorithmic complexity, in which random events are those that cannot be described by short computer programs. Algorithmic complexity is both incomputable and too general to capture the regularities that people can recognize, but viewing randomness as statistical inference provides two paths to addressing these problems: considering regularities generated by simpler computing machines, and restricting the set of probability distributions that characterize regularity. Building on previous work exploring these different routes to a more restricted notion of randomness, we define strong quantitative models of human randomness judgments that apply not just to binary sequences - which have been the focus of much of the previous work on subjective randomness - but also to binary matrices and spatial clustering. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Bayesian inference for hybrid discrete-continuous stochastic kinetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherlock, Chris; Golightly, Andrew; Gillespie, Colin S

    2014-01-01

    We consider the problem of efficiently performing simulation and inference for stochastic kinetic models. Whilst it is possible to work directly with the resulting Markov jump process (MJP), computational cost can be prohibitive for networks of realistic size and complexity. In this paper, we consider an inference scheme based on a novel hybrid simulator that classifies reactions as either ‘fast’ or ‘slow’ with fast reactions evolving as a continuous Markov process whilst the remaining slow reaction occurrences are modelled through a MJP with time-dependent hazards. A linear noise approximation (LNA) of fast reaction dynamics is employed and slow reaction events are captured by exploiting the ability to solve the stochastic differential equation driving the LNA. This simulation procedure is used as a proposal mechanism inside a particle MCMC scheme, thus allowing Bayesian inference for the model parameters. We apply the scheme to a simple application and compare the output with an existing hybrid approach and also a scheme for performing inference for the underlying discrete stochastic model. (paper)

  17. Sensorimotor Network Crucial for Inferring Amusement from Smiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paracampo, Riccardo; Tidoni, Emmanuele; Borgomaneri, Sara; di Pellegrino, Giuseppe; Avenanti, Alessio

    2017-11-01

    Understanding whether another's smile reflects authentic amusement is a key challenge in social life, yet, the neural bases of this ability have been largely unexplored. Here, we combined transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) with a novel empathic accuracy (EA) task to test whether sensorimotor and mentalizing networks are critical for understanding another's amusement. Participants were presented with dynamic displays of smiles and explicitly requested to infer whether the smiling individual was feeling authentic amusement or not. TMS over sensorimotor regions representing the face (i.e., in the inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) and ventral primary somatosensory cortex (SI)), disrupted the ability to infer amusement authenticity from observed smiles. The same stimulation did not affect performance on a nonsocial task requiring participants to track the smiling expression but not to infer amusement. Neither TMS over prefrontal and temporo-parietal areas supporting mentalizing, nor peripheral control stimulations, affected performance on either task. Thus, motor and somatosensory circuits for controlling and sensing facial movements are causally essential for inferring amusement from another's smile. These findings highlight the functional relevance of IFG and SI to amusement understanding and suggest that EA abilities may be grounded in sensorimotor networks for moving and feeling the body. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Localized fast flow disturbance observed in the plasma sheet and in the ionosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Nakamura

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available An isolated plasma sheet flow burst took place at 22:02 UT, 1 September 2002, when the Cluster footpoint was located within the area covered by the Magnetometers-Ionospheric Radars-All-sky Cameras Large Experiment (MIRACLE. The event was associated with a clear but weak ionospheric disturbance and took place during a steady southward IMF interval, about 1h preceding a major substorm onset. Multipoint observations, both in space and from the ground, allow us to discuss the temporal and spatial scale of the disturbance both in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Based on measurements from four Cluster spacecraft it is inferred that Cluster observed the dusk side part of a localized flow channel in the plasma sheet with a flow shear at the front, suggesting a field-aligned current out from the ionosphere. In the ionosphere the equivalent current pattern and possible field-aligned current location show a pattern similar to the auroral streamers previously obtained during an active period, except for its spatial scale and amplitude. It is inferred that the footpoint of Cluster was located in the region of an upward field-aligned current, consistent with the magnetospheric observations. The entire disturbance in the ionosphere lasted about 10min, consistent with the time scale of the current sheet disturbance in the magnetosphere. The plasma sheet bulk flow, on the other hand, had a time scale of about 2min, corresponding to the time scale of an equatorward excursion of the enhanced electrojet. These observations confirm that localized enhanced convection in the magnetosphere and associated changes in the current sheet structure produce a signature with consistent temporal and spatial scale at the conjugate ionosphere.

  19. Improving Climate Literacy Using The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM): A Prototype Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory For Use In K-12 Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halkides, D. J.; Larour, E. Y.; Perez, G.; Petrie, K.; Nguyen, L.

    2013-12-01

    Statistics indicate that most Americans learn what they will know about science within the confines of our public K-12 education system and the media. Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) aim to remedy science illiteracy and provide guidelines to exceed the Common Core State Standards that most U.S. state governments have adopted, by integrating disciplinary cores with crosscutting ideas and real life practices. In this vein, we present a prototype ';Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory' (I-Lab), geared to K-12 students, educators and interested members of the general public. I-Lab will allow users to perform experiments using a state-of-the-art dynamical ice sheet model and provide detailed downloadable lesson plans, which incorporate this model and are consistent with NGSS Physical Science criteria for different grade bands (K-2, 3-5, 6-8, and 9-12). The ultimate goal of this website is to improve public climate science literacy, especially in regards to the crucial role of the polar ice sheets in Earth's climate and sea level. The model used will be the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), an ice flow model developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and UC Irvine, that simulates the near-term evolution of polar ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and includes high spatial resolution capabilities and data assimilation to produce realistic simulations of ice sheet dynamics at the continental scale. Open sourced since 2011, ISSM is used in cutting edge cryosphere research around the globe. Thru I-Lab, students will be able to access ISSM using a simple, online graphical interface that can be launched from a web browser on a computer, tablet or smart phone. The interface will allow users to select different climate conditions and watch how the polar ice sheets evolve in time under those conditions. Lesson contents will include links to background material and activities that teach observation recording, concept articulation, hypothesis formulation and testing, and

  20. Ardnamurchan 3D cone-sheet architecture explained by a single elongate magma chamber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burchardt, Steffi; Troll, Valentin R; Mathieu, Lucie; Emeleus, Henry C; Donaldson, Colin H

    2013-10-08

    The Palaeogene Ardnamurchan central igneous complex, NW Scotland, was a defining place for the development of the classic concepts of cone-sheet and ring-dyke emplacement and has thus fundamentally influenced our thinking on subvolcanic structures. We have used the available structural information on Ardnamurchan to project the underlying three-dimensional (3D) cone-sheet structure. Here we show that a single elongate magma chamber likely acted as the source of the cone-sheet swarm(s) instead of the traditionally accepted model of three successive centres. This proposal is supported by the ridge-like morphology of the Ardnamurchan volcano and is consistent with the depth and elongation of the gravity anomaly underlying the peninsula. Our model challenges the traditional model of cone-sheet emplacement at Ardnamurchan that involves successive but independent centres in favour of a more dynamical one that involves a single, but elongate and progressively evolving magma chamber system.

  1. The peeling behaviour of a graphene sheet on a nano-scale corrugated surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Hao; Chen, Shaohua

    2013-01-01

    The peeling process and average peeling force of a graphene (GE) sheet on a corrugated surface are investigated using molecular dynamics simulation. It is found that the peeling behaviour varies with the substrate surface roughness and the peeling angle. Three kinds of typically peeling behaviours include (a) GE sheet directly passing the valley of the substrate roughness; (b) bouncing off from the substrate; and (c) continuously peeling off similarly to that on a flat substrate. As a result, the average peeling force is strongly dependent of the peeling behaviours. Furthermore, some interesting phenomena are caught, such as partial detaching and partial sliding of GE sheet in the valley of the substrate roughness, which are mainly due to the effects of pre-tension in GE sheet and the reduction of friction resistance. The results in this paper should be useful for the design of nano-film/substrate systems. (paper)

  2. Buckling of Aluminium Sheet Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegadekatte, Vishwanath; Shi, Yihai; Nardini, Dubravko

    Wrinkling is one of the major defects in sheet metal forming processes. It may become a serious obstacle to implementing the forming process and assembling the parts, and may also play a significant role in the wear of the tool. Wrinkling is essentially a local buckling phenomenon that results from compressive stresses (compressive instability) e.g., in the hoop direction for axi-symmetric systems such as beverage cans. Modern beverage can is a highly engineered product with a complex geometry. Therefore in order to understand wrinkling in such a complex system, we have started by studying wrinkling with the Yoshida buckling test. Further, we have studied the buckling of ideal and dented beverage cans under axial loading by laboratory testing. We have modelled the laboratory tests and also the imperfection sensitivity of the two systems using finite element method and the predictions are in qualitative agreement with experimental data.

  3. 46 CFR 232.4 - Balance sheet accounts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Balance sheet accounts. 232.4 Section 232.4 Shipping... ACTIVITIES UNIFORM FINANCIAL REPORTING REQUIREMENTS Balance Sheet § 232.4 Balance sheet accounts. (a.... (b) Purpose of balance sheet accounts. The balance sheet accounts are intended to disclose the...

  4. Fact Sheets on Pesticides in Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Coalition against the Misuse of Pesticides, Washington, DC.

    This document consists of a collection of fact sheets about the use of pesticides in schools and how to reduce it. The sheets are: (1) "Alternatives to Using Pesticides in Schools: What Is Integrated Pest Management?"; (2) "Health Effects of 48 Commonly Used Pesticides in Schools"; (3) "The Schooling of State Pesticide…

  5. Balance velocities of the Greenland ice sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joughin, I.; Fahnestock, M.; Ekholm, Simon

    1997-01-01

    We present a map of balance velocities for the Greenland ice sheet. The resolution of the underlying DEM, which was derived primarily from radar altimetery data, yields far greater detail than earlier balance velocity estimates for Greenland. The velocity contours reveal in striking detail......, the balance map is useful for ice-sheet modelling, mass balance studies, and field planning....

  6. Advanced friction modeling for sheet metal forming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hol, J.; Cid Alfaro, M.V.; de Rooij, Matthias B.; Meinders, Vincent T.

    2012-01-01

    The Coulomb friction model is frequently used for sheet metal forming simulations. This model incorporates a constant coefficient of friction and does not take the influence of important parameters such as contact pressure or deformation of the sheet material into account. This article presents a

  7. Advanced friction modeling in sheet metal forming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hol, J.; Cid Alfaro, M.V.; Meinders, Vincent T.; Huetink, Han

    2011-01-01

    The Coulomb friction model is frequently used for sheet metal forming simulations. This model incorporates a constant coefficient of friction and does not take the influence of important parameters such as contact pressure or deformation of the sheet material into account. This article presents a

  8. Antibubbles and fine cylindrical sheets of air

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beilharz, D.; Guyon, A.; Li, E.Q.; Thoraval, Marie-Jean; Thoroddsen, S.T.

    2015-01-01

    Drops impacting at low velocities onto a pool surface can stretch out thin hemispherical sheets of air between the drop and the pool. These air sheets can remain intact until they reach submicron thicknesses, at which point they rupture to form a myriad of microbubbles. By impacting a

  9. Molding cork sheets to complex shapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharpe, M. H.; Simpson, W. G.; Walker, H. M.

    1977-01-01

    Partially cured cork sheet is easily formed to complex shapes and then final-cured. Temperature and pressure levels required for process depend upon resin system used and final density and strength desired. Sheet can be bonded to surface during final cure, or can be first-formed in mold and bonded to surface in separate step.

  10. Lower complexity bounds for lifted inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred

    2015-01-01

    instances of the model. Numerous approaches for such “lifted inference” techniques have been proposed. While it has been demonstrated that these techniques will lead to significantly more efficient inference on some specific models, there are only very recent and still quite restricted results that show...... the feasibility of lifted inference on certain syntactically defined classes of models. Lower complexity bounds that imply some limitations for the feasibility of lifted inference on more expressive model classes were established earlier in Jaeger (2000; Jaeger, M. 2000. On the complexity of inference about...... that under the assumption that NETIME≠ETIME, there is no polynomial lifted inference algorithm for knowledge bases of weighted, quantifier-, and function-free formulas. Further strengthening earlier results, this is also shown to hold for approximate inference and for knowledge bases not containing...

  11. Statistical inference for financial engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Taniguchi, Masanobu; Ogata, Hiroaki; Taniai, Hiroyuki

    2014-01-01

    This monograph provides the fundamentals of statistical inference for financial engineering and covers some selected methods suitable for analyzing financial time series data. In order to describe the actual financial data, various stochastic processes, e.g. non-Gaussian linear processes, non-linear processes, long-memory processes, locally stationary processes etc. are introduced and their optimal estimation is considered as well. This book also includes several statistical approaches, e.g., discriminant analysis, the empirical likelihood method, control variate method, quantile regression, realized volatility etc., which have been recently developed and are considered to be powerful tools for analyzing the financial data, establishing a new bridge between time series and financial engineering. This book is well suited as a professional reference book on finance, statistics and statistical financial engineering. Readers are expected to have an undergraduate-level knowledge of statistics.

  12. Type inference for correspondence types

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hüttel, Hans; Gordon, Andy; Hansen, Rene Rydhof

    2009-01-01

    We present a correspondence type/effect system for authenticity in a π-calculus with polarized channels, dependent pair types and effect terms and show how one may, given a process P and an a priori type environment E, generate constraints that are formulae in the Alternating Least Fixed......-Point (ALFP) logic. We then show how a reasonable model of the generated constraints yields a type/effect assignment such that P becomes well-typed with respect to E if and only if this is possible. The formulae generated satisfy a finite model property; a system of constraints is satisfiable if and only...... if it has a finite model. As a consequence, we obtain the result that type/effect inference in our system is polynomial-time decidable....

  13. Causal inference in public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glass, Thomas A; Goodman, Steven N; Hernán, Miguel A; Samet, Jonathan M

    2013-01-01

    Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action's consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor's causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world.

  14. Nonlinear equilibrium structure of thin currents sheets: influence of electron pressure anisotropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. M. Zelenyi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Thin current sheets represent important and puzzling sites of magnetic energy storage and subsequent fast release. Such structures are observed in planetary magnetospheres, solar atmosphere and are expected to be widespread in nature. The thin current sheet structure resembles a collapsing MHD solution with a plane singularity. Being potential sites of effective energy accumulation, these structures have received a good deal of attention during the last decade, especially after the launch of the multiprobe CLUSTER mission which is capable of resolving their 3D features. Many theoretical models of thin current sheet dynamics, including the well-known current sheet bifurcation, have been developed recently. A self-consistent 1D analytical model of thin current sheets in which the tension of the magnetic field lines is balanced by the ion inertia rather than by the plasma pressure gradients was developed earlier. The influence of the anisotropic electron population and of the corresponding electrostatic field that acts to restore quasi-neutrality of the plasma is taken into account. It is assumed that the electron motion is fluid-like in the direction perpendicular to the magnetic field and fast enough to support quasi-equilibrium Boltzmann distribution along the field lines. Electrostatic effects lead to an interesting feature of the current density profile inside the current sheet, i.e. a narrow sharp peak of electron current in the very center of the sheet due to fast curvature drift of the particles in this region. The corresponding magnetic field profile becomes much steeper near the neutral plane although the total cross-tail current is in all cases dominated by the ion contribution. The dependence of electrostatic effects on the ion to electron temperature ratio, the curvature of the magnetic field lines, and the average electron magnetic moment is also analyzed. The implications of these effects on the fine structure of thin current sheets

  15. Inference problems in structural biology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsson, Simon

    The structure and dynamics of biological molecules are essential for their function. Consequently, a wealth of experimental techniques have been developed to study these features. However, while experiments yield detailed information about geometrical features of molecules, this information is of...

  16. Pressure balance between lobe and plasma sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baumjohann, W.; Paschmann, G.; Luehr, H.

    1990-01-01

    Using eight months of AMPTE/IRM plasma and magnetic field data, the authors have done a statistical survey on the balance of total (thermal and magnetic) pressure in the Earth's plasma sheet and tail lobe. About 300,000 measurements obtained in the plasma sheet and the lobe were compared for different levels of magnetic activity as well as different distances from the Earth. The data show that lobe and plasma sheet pressure balance very well. Even in the worst case they do not deviate by more than half of the variance in the data itself. Approximately constant total pressure was also seen during a quiet time pass when IRM traversed nearly the whole magnetotail in the vertical direction, from the southern hemisphere lobe through the neutral sheet and into the northern plasma sheet boundary layer

  17. NON-EQUILIBRIUM IONIZATION MODELING OF THE CURRENT SHEET IN A SIMULATED SOLAR ERUPTION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen Chengcai; Reeves, Katharine K.; Raymond, John C.; Murphy, Nicholas A.; Ko, Yuan-Kuen; Lin Jun; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.

    2013-01-01

    The current sheet that extends from the top of flare loops and connects to an associated flux rope is a common structure in models of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To understand the observational properties of CME current sheets, we generated predictions from a flare/CME model to be compared with observations. We use a simulation of a large-scale CME current sheet previously reported by Reeves et al. This simulation includes ohmic and coronal heating, thermal conduction, and radiative cooling in the energy equation. Using the results of this simulation, we perform time-dependent ionization calculations of the flow in a CME current sheet and construct two-dimensional spatial distributions of ionic charge states for multiple chemical elements. We use the filter responses from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the predicted intensities of emission lines to compute the count rates for each of the AIA bands. The results show differences in the emission line intensities between equilibrium and non-equilibrium ionization. The current sheet plasma is underionized at low heights and overionized at large heights. At low heights in the current sheet, the intensities of the AIA 94 Å and 131 Å channels are lower for non-equilibrium ionization than for equilibrium ionization. At large heights, these intensities are higher for non-equilibrium ionization than for equilibrium ionization inside the current sheet. The assumption of ionization equilibrium would lead to a significant underestimate of the temperature low in the current sheet and overestimate at larger heights. We also calculate the intensities of ultraviolet lines and predict emission features to be compared with events from the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, including a low-intensity region around the current sheet corresponding to this model

  18. Inferring epidemiologic dynamics from viral evolution: 2014–2015 Eurasian/North American highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses exceed transmission threshold, R0 = 1, in wild birds and poultry in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grear, Daniel R.; Hall, Jeffrey S.; Dusek, Robert; Ip, Hon S.

    2018-01-01

    Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is a multihost pathogen with lineages that pose health risks for domestic birds, wild birds, and humans. One mechanism of intercontinental HPAIV spread is through wild bird reservoirs, and wild birds were the likely sources of a Eurasian (EA) lineage HPAIV into North America in 2014. The introduction resulted in several reassortment events with North American (NA) lineage low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses and the reassortant EA/NA H5N2 went on to cause one of the largest HPAIV poultry outbreaks in North America. We evaluated three hypotheses about novel HPAIV introduced into wild and domestic bird hosts: (i) transmission of novel HPAIVs in wild birds was restricted by mechanisms associated with highly pathogenic phenotypes; (ii) the HPAIV poultry outbreak was not self-sustaining and required viral input from wild birds; and (iii) reassortment of the EA H5N8 generated reassortant EA/NA AIVs with a fitness advantage over fully Eurasian lineages in North American wild birds. We used a time-rooted phylodynamic model that explicitly incorporated viral population dynamics with evolutionary dynamics to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) and viral migration among host types in domestic and wild birds, as well as between the EA H5N8 and EA/NA H5N2 in wild birds. We did not find evidence to support hypothesis (i) or (ii) as our estimates of the transmission parameters suggested that the HPAIV outbreak met or exceeded the threshold for persistence in wild birds (R0 > 1) and poultry (R0 ≈ 1) with minimal estimated transmission among host types. There was also no evidence to support hypothesis (iii) because R0 values were similar among EA H5N8 and EA/NA H5N2 in wild birds. Our results suggest that this novel HPAIV and reassortments did not encounter any transmission barriers sufficient to prevent persistence when introduced to wild or domestic birds.

  19. Temporal variation of transit time of rainfall-runoff water and groundwater flow dynamics inferred by noble gasses concentration (SF6, CFCs) in a forested small catchment (Fukushima, Japan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakakibara, Koichi; Tsujimura, Maki; Onda, Yuichi; Iwagami, Sho; Konuma, Ryohei; Sato, Yutaro

    2016-04-01

    Time variant transit time of water in catchments can fundamentally describe catchment function, controlling rainfall-runoff generation, groundwater flow pathway and water storage. Though rainstorm event has been recognized as active phase on catchment hydrology, accurate and precise time variance of water transit time and related water dynamics during rainstorm have not been well clarified yet. Here, in order to reveal temporal variation of mean transit time of groundwater and related hydrological processes in a forested small catchment during rainstorm event, periodic and intensive field observations (15 - 17th July 2015, rainfall of 100.8 mm in total) were conducted in Yamakiya district (Fukushima, Japan) from September 2014 to December 2015. Discharge volume, groundwater table and precipitation amount were measured in 10 minutes interval. Water samples were taken from groundwater, discharge water, soil water and precipitation for determination of stable isotopic compositions (δ18O, δ2H), inorganic solutes concentration and dissolved noble gasses concentration (CFC11, CFC12, CFC113, SF6) in water. Storm hydrograph and groundwater table clearly responded to rainfall event especially with more than 30 mm per day throughout monitoring period. According to SF6 concentration in water, the mean transit time of discharge water (perennial spring) showed 3 - 6.5 years in the no-rainfall period (steady state), but fluctuated from zero to 12.5 years in the rainstorm event with totally 100.8 mm (unsteady state). The mean transit time of discharge water dramatically altered from zero to 12.5 years from before to after the tentative hydrograph peak in the rising limb, indicating new water components were dominant before tentative hydrograph peak, whereas deep groundwater component with longer residence time contributed much to discharge after the tentative hydrograph peak. On the other hand, mean residence time of groundwater (water in 5 m well) ranged from 0.5 to 11.5 years

  20. Glacial changes in warm pool climate dominated by shelf exposure and ice sheet albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Nezio, P. N.; Tierney, J. E.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Timmermann, A.; Bhattacharya, T.; Brady, E. C.; Rosenbloom, N. A.

    2017-12-01

    The mechanisms driving glacial-interglacial changes in the climate of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) are unclear. We addressed this issue combining model simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Two drivers - the exposure of tropical shelves due to lower sea level and a monsoonal response to ice sheet albedo - explain the proxy-inferred patterns of hydroclimate change. Shelf exposure influences IPWP climate by weakening the ascending branch of the Walker circulation. This response is amplified by coupled interactions akin to the Bjerknes feedback involving a stronger sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO). Ice sheet albedo enhances the import of cold, dry air into the tropics, weakening the Afro-Asian monsoon system. This "ventilation" mechanism alters temperature contrasts between the Arabian Sea and surrounding land leading to further monsoon weakening. Additional simulations show that the altered SST patterns associated with these responses are essential for explaining the proxy-inferred changes. Together our results show that ice sheets are a first order driver of tropical climate on glacial-interglacial timescales. While glacial climates are not a straightforward analogue for the future, our finding of an active Bjerknes feedback deserves further attention in the context of future climate projections.