WorldWideScience

Sample records for shear rate estimation

  1. Thrombus Formation at High Shear Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casa, Lauren D C; Ku, David N

    2017-06-21

    The final common pathway in myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke is occlusion of blood flow from a thrombus forming under high shear rates in arteries. A high-shear thrombus forms rapidly and is distinct from the slow formation of coagulation that occurs in stagnant blood. Thrombosis at high shear rates depends primarily on the long protein von Willebrand factor (vWF) and platelets, with hemodynamics playing an important role in each stage of thrombus formation, including vWF binding, platelet adhesion, platelet activation, and rapid thrombus growth. The prediction of high-shear thrombosis is a major area of biofluid mechanics in which point-of-care testing and computational modeling are promising future directions for clinically relevant research. Further research in this area will enable identification of patients at high risk for arterial thrombosis, improve prevention and treatment based on shear-dependent biological mechanisms, and improve blood-contacting device design to reduce thrombosis risk.

  2. Localization in inelastic rate dependent shearing deformations

    KAUST Repository

    Katsaounis, Theodoros

    2016-09-18

    Metals deformed at high strain rates can exhibit failure through formation of shear bands, a phenomenon often attributed to Hadamard instability and localization of the strain into an emerging coherent structure. We verify formation of shear bands for a nonlinear model exhibiting strain softening and strain rate sensitivity. The effects of strain softening and strain rate sensitivity are first assessed by linearized analysis, indicating that the combined effect leads to Turing instability. For the nonlinear model a class of self-similar solutions is constructed, that depicts a coherent localizing structure and the formation of a shear band. This solution is associated to a heteroclinic orbit of a dynamical system. The orbit is constructed numerically and yields explicit shear localizing solutions. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd

  3. Localization in inelastic rate dependent shearing deformations

    KAUST Repository

    Katsaounis, Theodoros; Lee, Min-Gi; Tzavaras, Athanasios

    2016-01-01

    Metals deformed at high strain rates can exhibit failure through formation of shear bands, a phenomenon often attributed to Hadamard instability and localization of the strain into an emerging coherent structure. We verify formation of shear bands for a nonlinear model exhibiting strain softening and strain rate sensitivity. The effects of strain softening and strain rate sensitivity are first assessed by linearized analysis, indicating that the combined effect leads to Turing instability. For the nonlinear model a class of self-similar solutions is constructed, that depicts a coherent localizing structure and the formation of a shear band. This solution is associated to a heteroclinic orbit of a dynamical system. The orbit is constructed numerically and yields explicit shear localizing solutions. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd

  4. Hydrodynamic characterization and molecular weight estimation of ultrasonically sheared DNA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casal, J. I.; Garces, F.; Garcia-Sacristan, A.

    1981-01-01

    The sedimentation coefficients and intrinsic viscosities of ultrasonically sheared calf thymus DNA have been determined. The molecular weight estimation according to this parameters have been compared with the ones obtained from the electrophoretic migration rates based on the calibration proposed using the known molecular weight restriction fragments of X-ENA. (Author) 35 refs

  5. Gas leakage rate through reinforced concrete shear walls: Numerical study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ting; Hutchinson, Tara C.

    2005-01-01

    Unlined reinforced concrete shear walls are often used as 'tertiary boundaries' in the United States Department of Energy (DOE) to house dangerous gases. An unanticipated event, such as an earthquake, may cause gases stored inside the walls to disperse into the environment resulting in excess pollution. To address this concern, in this paper, a methodology to numerically predict the gas leakage rate through these shear walls under lateral loading conditions is proposed. This methodology involves finite element and flow rate analysis. Strain distributions are obtained from the finite element analysis, and then used to simulate the crack characteristics on the concrete specimen. The flow rate through the damaged concrete specimen is then estimated using flow rate formulas available from the literature. Results from an experimental specimen are used to evaluate the methodology, and particularly its robustness in the flow rate estimation

  6. Relative viscosity of emulsions in simple shear flow: Temperature, shear rate, and interfacial tension dependence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Se Bin; Lee, Joon Sang [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Yonsei Unversity, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-08-15

    We simulate an emulsion system under simple shear rates to analyze its rheological characteristics using the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). We calculate the relative viscosity of an emulsion under a simple shear flow along with changes in temperature, shear rate, and surfactant concentration. The relative viscosity of emulsions decreased with an increase in temperature. We observed the shear-thinning phenomena, which is responsible for the inverse proportion between the shear rate and viscosity. An increase in the interfacial tension caused a decrease in the relative viscosity of the decane-in-water emulsion because the increased deformation caused by the decreased interfacial tension significantly influenced the wall shear stress.

  7. Rating precast prestressed concrete bridges for shear

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-12-01

    Shear capacity of real-world prestressed concrete girders designed in the 1960s and 1970s is a concern because : AASHTO Standard Specifications (AASHTO-STD) employed the quarter-point rule for shear design, which is less : conservative for shea...

  8. Experimental study of shear rate dependence in perpetually sheared granular matter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sophie Yang; Guillard, François; Marks, Benjy; Rognon, Pierre; Einav, Itai

    2017-06-01

    We study the shear behaviour of various granular materials by conducting novel perpetual simple shear experiments over four orders of magnitude of relatively low shear rates. The newly developed experimental apparatus employed is called "3D Stadium Shear Device" which is an extended version of the 2D Stadium Shear Device [1]. This device is able to provide a non-radial dependent perpetual shear flow and a nearly linear velocity profile between two oppositely moving shear walls. Using this device, we are able to test a large variety of granular materials. Here, we demonstrate the applicability of the device on glass beads (diameter 1 mm, 3 mm, and 14 mm) and rice. We particularly focus on studying these materials at very low inertial number I ranging from 10-6 to 10-2. We find that, within this range of I, the friction coefficient μ of glass beads has no shear rate dependence. A particularly appealing observation comes from testing rice, where the attainment of critical state develops under much longer duration than in other materials. Initially during shear we find a value of μ similar to that found for glass beads, but with time this value decreases gradually towards the asymptotic critical state value. The reason, we believe, lies in the fact that rice grains are strongly elongated; hence the time to achieve the stable μ is primarily controlled by the time for particles to align themselves with respect to the shear walls. Furthermore, the initial packing conditions of samples also plays a role in the evolution of μ when the shear strain is small, but that impact will eventually be erased after sufficient shear strain.

  9. Experimental study of shear rate dependence in perpetually sheared granular matter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Sophie Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the shear behaviour of various granular materials by conducting novel perpetual simple shear experiments over four orders of magnitude of relatively low shear rates. The newly developed experimental apparatus employed is called “3D Stadium Shear Device” which is an extended version of the 2D Stadium Shear Device [1]. This device is able to provide a non-radial dependent perpetual shear flow and a nearly linear velocity profile between two oppositely moving shear walls. Using this device, we are able to test a large variety of granular materials. Here, we demonstrate the applicability of the device on glass beads (diameter 1 mm, 3 mm, and 14 mm and rice. We particularly focus on studying these materials at very low inertial number I ranging from 10−6 to 10−2. We find that, within this range of I, the friction coefficient μ of glass beads has no shear rate dependence. A particularly appealing observation comes from testing rice, where the attainment of critical state develops under much longer duration than in other materials. Initially during shear we find a value of μ similar to that found for glass beads, but with time this value decreases gradually towards the asymptotic critical state value. The reason, we believe, lies in the fact that rice grains are strongly elongated; hence the time to achieve the stable μ is primarily controlled by the time for particles to align themselves with respect to the shear walls. Furthermore, the initial packing conditions of samples also plays a role in the evolution of μ when the shear strain is small, but that impact will eventually be erased after sufficient shear strain.

  10. E x B shearing rate in quasi-symmetric plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hahm, T.S.

    1997-01-01

    The suppression of turbulence by the E x B shear is studied in systems with quasi-symmetry using the nonlinear analysis of eddy decorrelation previously utilized in finite aspect ratio tokamak plasmas. The analytically derived E x B shearing rate which contains the relevant geometric dependence can be used for quantitative assessment of the fluctuation suppression in stellarators with quasi-symmetry

  11. Microfluidic thrombosis under multiple shear rates and antiplatelet therapy doses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa Li

    Full Text Available The mainstay of treatment for thrombosis, the formation of occlusive platelet aggregates that often lead to heart attack and stroke, is antiplatelet therapy. Antiplatelet therapy dosing and resistance are poorly understood, leading to potential incorrect and ineffective dosing. Shear rate is also suspected to play a major role in thrombosis, but instrumentation to measure its influence has been limited by flow conditions, agonist use, and non-systematic and/or non-quantitative studies. In this work we measured occlusion times and thrombus detachment for a range of initial shear rates (500, 1500, 4000, and 10000 s(-1 and therapy concentrations (0-2.4 µM for eptifibatide, 0-2 mM for acetyl-salicylic acid (ASA, 3.5-40 Units/L for heparin using a microfluidic device. We also measured complete blood counts (CBC and platelet activity using whole blood impedance aggregometry. Effects of shear rate and dose were analyzed using general linear models, logistic regressions, and Cox proportional hazards models. Shear rates have significant effects on thrombosis/dose-response curves for all tested therapies. ASA has little effect on high shear occlusion times, even at very high doses (up to 20 times the recommended dose. Under ASA therapy, thrombi formed at high shear rates were 4 times more prone to detachment compared to those formed under control conditions. Eptifibatide reduced occlusion when controlling for shear rate and its efficacy increased with dose concentration. In contrast, the hazard of occlusion from ASA was several orders of magnitude higher than that of eptifibatide. Our results show similar dose efficacy to our low shear measurements using whole blood aggregometry. This quantitative and statistically validated study of the effects of a wide range of shear rate and antiplatelet therapy doses on occlusive thrombosis contributes to more accurate understanding of thrombosis and to models for optimizing patient treatment.

  12. Estimating NHL Scoring Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Buttrey, Samuel E.; Washburn, Alan R.; Price, Wilson L.; Operations Research

    2011-01-01

    The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1334 We propose a model to estimate the rates at which NHL teams score and yield goals. In the model, goals occur as if from a Poisson process whose rate depends on the two teams playing, the home-ice advantage, and the manpower (power-play, short-handed) situation. Data on all the games from the 2008-2009 season was downloaded and processed into a form suitable for the analysis. The model...

  13. Study of magnetorheological fluids at high shear rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xiaojie; Gordaninejad, Faramarz [University of Nevada, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Reno, NV (United States)

    2006-08-15

    The tunable rheological properties of magnetorheological (MR) materials at high shear rates are studied using a piston-driven flow-mode-type rheometer. The proposed method provides measurement of the apparent viscosity and yield stress of MR fluids for a shear rate range of 50 to 40,000 s{sup -1}. The rheological properties of a commercial MR fluid, as well as a newly developed MR polymeric gel, and a ferrofluid-based MR fluid are investigated. The results for apparent viscosity and dynamic and static shear stresses under different applied magnetic fields are reported. (orig.)

  14. High strength semi-active energy absorbers using shear- and mixedmode operation at high shear rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becnel, Andrew C.

    This body of research expands the design space of semi-active energy absorbers for shock isolation and crash safety by investigating and characterizing magnetorheological fluids (MRFs) at high shear rates ( > 25,000 1/s) under shear and mixed-mode operation. Magnetorheological energy absorbers (MREAs) work well as adaptive isolators due to their ability to quickly and controllably adjust to changes in system mass or impact speed while providing fail-safe operation. However, typical linear stroking MREAs using pressure-driven flows have been shown to exhibit reduced controllability as impact speed (shear rate) increases. The objective of this work is to develop MREAs that improve controllability at high shear rates by using pure shear and mixed shear-squeeze modes of operation, and to present the fundamental theory and models of MR fluids under these conditions. A proof of concept instrument verified that the MR effect persists in shear mode devices at shear rates corresponding to low speed impacts. This instrument, a concentric cylinder Searle cell magnetorheometer, was then used to characterize three commercially available MRFs across a wide range of shear rates, applied magnetic fields, and temperatures. Characterization results are presented both as flow curves according to established practice, and as an alternate nondimensionalized analysis based on Mason number. The Mason number plots show that, with appropriate correction coefficients for operating temperature, the varied flow curve data can be collapsed to a single master curve. This work represents the first shear mode characterization of MRFs at shear rates over 10 times greater than available with commercial rheometers, as well as the first validation of Mason number analysis to high shear rate flows in MRFs. Using the results from the magnetorheometer, a full scale rotary vane MREA was developed as part of the Lightweight Magnetorheological Energy Absorber System (LMEAS) for an SH-60 Seahawk helicopter

  15. Measurement of viscosity of slush at high shear rates

    OpenAIRE

    小林, 俊一; 川村, 公之; 津川, 圭一; 和泉, 薫; Kobayashi, Shun'ichi; Kawamura, Kimiyuki; Tugawa, Keiichi; Izumi, Kaoru

    1988-01-01

    Measurements of viscosity of slush were carried out using a method of flow along an inclined smooth surface in a 0℃cold room. The method was used to get the values of viscosity under high shear rates (25 and 75s^). From our experiments two important results were obtained: 1) the viscosity of slush decreases with increasing shear rates; 2) The fluid behavior is pseudoplastic that the values of non-Newtonian index of viscosity were less than unity.

  16. Estimating Discount Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence Booth

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Discount rates are essential to applied finance, especially in setting prices for regulated utilities and valuing the liabilities of insurance companies and defined benefit pension plans. This paper reviews the basic building blocks for estimating discount rates. It also examines market risk premiums, as well as what constitutes a benchmark fair or required rate of return, in the aftermath of the financial crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program. Some of the results are disconcerting. In Canada, utilities and pension regulators responded to the crash in different ways. Utilities regulators haven’t passed on the full impact of low interest rates, so that consumers face higher prices than they should whereas pension regulators have done the opposite, and forced some contributors to pay more. In both cases this is opposite to the desired effect of monetary policy which is to stimulate aggregate demand. A comprehensive survey of global finance professionals carried out last year provides some clues as to where adjustments are needed. In the U.S., the average equity market required return was estimated at 8.0 per cent; Canada’s is 7.40 per cent, due to the lower market risk premium and the lower risk-free rate. This paper adds a wealth of historic and survey data to conclude that the ideal base long-term interest rate used in risk premium models should be 4.0 per cent, producing an overall expected market return of 9-10.0 per cent. The same data indicate that allowed returns to utilities are currently too high, while the use of current bond yields in solvency valuations of pension plans and life insurers is unhelpful unless there is a realistic expectation that the plans will soon be terminated.

  17. To determine the slow shearing rate for consolidation drained shear box tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamalludin, Damanhuri; Ahmad, Azura; Nordin, Mohd Mustaqim Mohd; Hashim, Mohamad Zain; Ibrahim, Anas; Ahmad, Fauziah

    2017-08-01

    Slope failures always occur in Malaysia especially during the rainy seasons. They cause damage to properties and fatalities. In this study, a total of 24 one dimensional consolidation tests were carried out on soil samples taken from 16 slope failures in Penang Island and in Baling, Kedah. The slope failures in Penang Island are within the granitic residual soil while in Baling, Kedah they are situated within the sedimentary residual soil. Most of the disturbed soil samples were taken at 100mm depth from the existing soil surface while some soil samples were also taken at 400, 700 and 1000mm depths from the existing soil surface. They were immediately placed in 2 layers of plastic bag to prevent moisture loss. Field bulk density tests were also carried out at all the locations where soil samples were taken. The field bulk density results were later used to re-compact the soil samples for the consolidation tests. The objective of the research is to determine the slow shearing rate to be used in consolidated drained shear box for residual soils taken from slope failures so that the effective shear strength parameters can be determined. One dimensional consolidation tests were used to determine the slow shearing rate. The slow shearing rate found in this study to be used in the consolidated drained shear box tests especially for Northern Malaysian residual soils was 0.286mm/minute.

  18. Fourier band-power E/B-mode estimators for cosmic shear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becker, Matthew R.; Rozo, Eduardo

    2016-01-20

    We introduce new Fourier band-power estimators for cosmic shear data analysis and E/B-mode separation. We consider both the case where one performs E/B-mode separation and the case where one does not. The resulting estimators have several nice properties which make them ideal for cosmic shear data analysis. First, they can be written as linear combinations of the binned cosmic shear correlation functions. Secondly, they account for the survey window function in real-space. Thirdly, they are unbiased by shape noise since they do not use correlation function data at zero separation. Fourthly, the band-power window functions in Fourier space are compact and largely non-oscillatory. Fifthly, they can be used to construct band-power estimators with very efficient data compression properties. In particular, we find that all of the information on the parameters Ωm, σ8 and ns in the shear correlation functions in the range of ~10–400 arcmin for single tomographic bin can be compressed into only three band-power estimates. Finally, we can achieve these rates of data compression while excluding small-scale information where the modelling of the shear correlation functions and power spectra is very difficult. Given these desirable properties, these estimators will be very useful for cosmic shear data analysis.

  19. Steady shear rate rheology of suspensions, as described by the gaint floc model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, H.N.; Laven, J.

    2001-01-01

    The break-down of a particle network by shear is described as the development of shear planes: a region able to withstand low shear stresses may break down under a larger stress; thus with increasing shear stress and shear rate, the mutual distance (A) between successive shear planes decreases

  20. estimation of shear strength parameters of lateritic soils using

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    ... a tool to estimate the. Nigerian Journal of Technology (NIJOTECH). Vol. ... modeling tools for the prediction of shear strength parameters for lateritic ... 2.2 Geotechnical Analysis of the Soils ... The back propagation learning algorithm is the most popular and ..... [10] Alsaleh, M. I., Numerical modeling for strain localization in ...

  1. Measuring Local Strain Rates In Ductile Shear Zones: A New Approach From Deformed Syntectonic Dykes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sassier, C.; Leloup, P.; Rubatto, D.; Galland, O.; Yue, Y.; Ding, L.

    2006-12-01

    At the Earth surface, deformation is mostly localized in fault zones in between tectonic plates. In the upper crust, the deformation is brittle and the faults are narrow and produce earthquakes. In contrast, deformation in the lower ductile crust results in larger shear zones. While it is relatively easy to measure in situ deformation rates at the surface using for example GPS data, it is more difficult to determinate in situ values of strain rate in the ductile crust. Such strain rates can only be estimated in paleo-shear zones. Various methods have been used to assess paleo-strain rates in paleo-shear zones. For instance, cooling and/or decompression rates associated with assumptions on geothermic gradients and shear zone geometry can lead to such estimates. Another way to estimate strain rates is the integration of paleo-stress measurements in a power flow law. But these methods are indirect and imply strong assumptions. Dating of helicitic garnets or syntectonic fibres are more direct estimates. However these last techniques have been only applied in zones of low deformation and not in major shear zones. We propose a new direct method to measure local strain rates in major ductile shear zones from syntectonic dykes by coupling quantification of deformation and geochronology. We test our method in a major shear zone in a well constrained tectonic setting: the Ailao-Shan - Red River Shear Zone (ASRRsz) located in SE Asia. For this 10 km wide shear zone, large-scale fault rates, determined in three independent ways, imply strain rates between 1.17×10^{-13 s-1 and 1.52×10^{-13 s-1 between 35 and 16 Ma. Our study focused on one outcrop where different generations of syntectonic dykes are observed. First, we quantified the minimum shear strain γ for each dyke using several methods: (1) by measuring the stretching of dykes with a surface restoration method (2) by measuring the final angle of the dykes with respect to the shear direction and (3) by combining the two

  2. Building unbiased estimators from non-Gaussian likelihoods with application to shear estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madhavacheril, Mathew S.; Sehgal, Neelima; McDonald, Patrick; Slosar, Anže

    2015-01-01

    We develop a general framework for generating estimators of a given quantity which are unbiased to a given order in the difference between the true value of the underlying quantity and the fiducial position in theory space around which we expand the likelihood. We apply this formalism to rederive the optimal quadratic estimator and show how the replacement of the second derivative matrix with the Fisher matrix is a generic way of creating an unbiased estimator (assuming choice of the fiducial model is independent of data). Next we apply the approach to estimation of shear lensing, closely following the work of Bernstein and Armstrong (2014). Our first order estimator reduces to their estimator in the limit of zero shear, but it also naturally allows for the case of non-constant shear and the easy calculation of correlation functions or power spectra using standard methods. Both our first-order estimator and Bernstein and Armstrong's estimator exhibit a bias which is quadratic in true shear. Our third-order estimator is, at least in the realm of the toy problem of Bernstein and Armstrong, unbiased to 0.1% in relative shear errors Δg/g for shears up to |g|=0.2

  3. CFD simulation of estimating critical shear stress for cleaning flat ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sumit Kawale

    2017-11-22

    Nov 22, 2017 ... Jet impingement; wall shear stress; cleaning of flat plate; turbulence model; critical shear stress; ... On comparing the theoretical predictions with wall shear ... distance and Reynolds number on peak value of local shear stress ...

  4. Dynamical analysis of electrochemical wall shear rate measurements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenhoven, van A.A.; Beucken, van den F.J.H.M.

    1991-01-01

    The performance of a circular electrochemical wall shear rate probe under unsteady flow conditions is analysed through a combined ezxperimental, numerical and analytical approach. The experiments are performed with a ferri- and ferrocyanide redox couple and compared to finite element analysis of the

  5. Estimation of shear wave speed in the human uterine cervix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, L C; Feltovich, H; Palmeri, M L; Dahl, J J; Munoz del Rio, A; Hall, T J

    2014-04-01

    To explore spatial variability within the cervix and the sensitivity of shear wave speed (SWS) to assess softness/stiffness differences in ripened (softened) vs unripened tissue. We obtained SWS estimates from hysterectomy specimens (n = 22), a subset of which were ripened (n = 13). Multiple measurements were made longitudinally along the cervical canal on both the anterior and posterior sides of the cervix. Statistical tests of differences in the proximal vs distal, anterior vs posterior and ripened vs unripened cervix were performed with individual two-sample t-tests and a linear mixed model. Estimates of SWS increase monotonically from distal to proximal longitudinally along the cervix, they vary in the anterior compared to the posterior cervix and they are significantly different in ripened vs unripened cervical tissue. Specifically, the mid position SWS estimates for the unripened group were 3.45 ± 0.95 m/s (anterior; mean ± SD) and 3.56 ± 0.92 m/s (posterior), and 2.11 ± 0.45 m/s (anterior) and 2.68 ± 0.57 m/s (posterior) for the ripened group (P < 0.001). We propose that SWS estimation may be a valuable research and, ultimately, diagnostic tool for objective quantification of cervical stiffness/softness. Copyright © 2013 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Shear Strains, Strain Rates and Temperature Changes in Adiabatic Shear Bands

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-05-01

    X14A. It has been found that when bainitic and martensitic steels are sheared adiabatically, a layer of material within ths shear zone is altezed and...Sooiety for Metals, Metals Park, Ohio, 1978, pp. 148-0. 21 TABLE II SOLID-STATE TRANSFORMATIONS IN BAINITIC STEEL TRANSFORMATION TRANSFORMATION...shear, thermoplastic, plasticity, plastic deformation, armor, steel IL AnSRACT ( -=nba asoa.tm a naeoesM iN faity by bleak n bet/2972 Experiments

  7. Modeling of the reactant conversion rate in a turbulent shear flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, S. H.; Madnia, C. K.; Givi, P.

    1992-01-01

    Results are presented of direct numerical simulations (DNS) of spatially developing shear flows under the influence of infinitely fast chemical reactions of the type A + B yields Products. The simulation results are used to construct the compositional structure of the scalar field in a statistical manner. The results of this statistical analysis indicate that the use of a Beta density for the probability density function (PDF) of an appropriate Shvab-Zeldovich mixture fraction provides a very good estimate of the limiting bounds of the reactant conversion rate within the shear layer. This provides a strong justification for the implementation of this density in practical modeling of non-homogeneous turbulent reacting flows. However, the validity of the model cannot be generalized for predictions of higher order statistical quantities. A closed form analytical expression is presented for predicting the maximum rate of reactant conversion in non-homogeneous reacting turbulence.

  8. Shear-Rate-Dependent Behavior of Clayey Bimaterial Interfaces at Landslide Stress Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scaringi, Gianvito; Hu, Wei; Xu, Qiang; Huang, Runqiu

    2018-01-01

    The behavior of reactivated and first-failure landslides after large displacements is controlled by the available shear resistance in a shear zone and/or along slip surfaces, such as a soil-bedrock interface. Among the factors influencing the resistance parameter, the dependence on the shear rate can trigger catastrophic evolution (rate-weakening) or exert a slow-down feedback (rate-strengthening) upon stress perturbation. We present ring-shear test results, performed under various normal stresses and shear rates, on clayey soils from a landslide shear zone, on its parent lithology and other lithologies, and on clay-rock interface samples. We find that depending on the materials in contact, the normal stress, and the stress history, the shear-rate-dependent behaviors differ. We discuss possible models and underlying mechanisms for the time-dependent behavior of landslides in clay soils.

  9. Temperature and shear rate characteristics of electrorheological gel applied to a clutch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koyanagi, K; Takata, Y; Motoyoshi, T; Oshima, T; Kakinuma, Y; Anzai, H; Sakurai, K

    2013-01-01

    This investigation reports the physical characteristics of electrorheological (ER) gels, which are a type of functional material having controlled surface friction. We previously developed slip clutches using ER gels sandwiched between electrodes, and verified their responses and controllability. We newly report the temperature and shear rate characteristics of ER gel in this study because the input and output electrodes of the clutch continuously slip past each other. While the temperature of ER gels increased when energized, the shear stress hardly changed. Instead, wearing and adaptation to the electrode affect the property. The shear rate hardly affected the shear stress in the high-shear-rate region. Conversely, the shear stress depended on the shear rate in the lower region.

  10. Estimated strength of shear keys in concrete dams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis, D.D. [Hatch Energy, Niagara Falls, ON (Canada); Lum, K.K.Y. [BC Hydro, Burnaby, BC (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    BC Hydro requested that Hatch Energy review the seismic stability of Ruskin Dam which was constructed in 1930 at Hayward Lake in British Columbia. The concrete gravity dam is founded nearly entirely on rock in a narrow valley. The vertical joints between blocks are keyed and grouted. The strength of the shear keys was assessed when a non-linear finite element model found that significant forces were being transferred laterally to the abutments during an earthquake. The lateral transfer of loads to the abutment relies on the strength of the shear keys. The dynamic finite element analysis was used to determine the stability of the dam. A review of the shear strength measurements reported in literature showed that the measurements compared well to those obtained by BC Hydro from cores taken from Ruskin Dam. The cohesive strength obtained using the Griffith failure criteria was also in good agreement with both sets of measurements. A simple ultimate shear strength equation was developed using the Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria to determine combined cohesive and frictional strength of shear keys. Safety factors of 2.0 for static loads and 1.5 for seismic loads were proposed to reduce the ultimate strength to allowable values. It was concluded that given the relatively high shear strength established for the shear keys, the abutment rock or dam/abutment contact will control the amount of load which can arch to the abutments. 8 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs.

  11. Endothelial shear stress estimation in the human carotid artery based on Womersley versus Poiseuille flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schwarz, Janina C. V.; Duivenvoorden, Raphaël; Nederveen, Aart J.; Stroes, Erik S. G.; VanBavel, Ed

    2015-01-01

    Endothelial shear stress (ESS) dynamics are a major determinant of atherosclerosis development. The frequently used Poiseuille method to estimate ESS dynamics has important limitations. Therefore, we investigated whether Womersley flow may provide a better alternative for estimation of ESS while

  12. Flow behavior at different shear rates for dry powders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Singh, A.; Singh, A.; Luding, Stefan; Nürnberg Messe GmbH,

    2010-01-01

    Using Discrete Element Simulations (DEM), an effort is made to study the so called “Split bottom ring shear cell” where a slow, quasi-static deformation leads to wide shear bands. Density, velocity and deformation gradients as well as structure and stress tensors, can be computed by a single

  13. Estimating diversification rates for higher taxa: BAMM can give problematic estimates of rates and rate shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Andreas L S; Wiens, John J

    2018-01-01

    Estimates of diversification rates are invaluable for many macroevolutionary studies. Recently, an approach called BAMM (Bayesian Analysis of Macro-evolutionary Mixtures) has become widely used for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. At the same time, several articles have concluded that estimates of net diversification rates from the method-of-moments (MS) estimators are inaccurate. Yet, no studies have compared the ability of these two methods to accurately estimate clade diversification rates. Here, we use simulations to compare their performance. We found that BAMM yielded relatively weak relationships between true and estimated diversification rates. This occurred because BAMM underestimated the number of rates shifts across each tree, and assigned high rates to small clades with low rates. Errors in both speciation and extinction rates contributed to these errors, showing that using BAMM to estimate only speciation rates is also problematic. In contrast, the MS estimators (particularly using stem group ages), yielded stronger relationships between true and estimated diversification rates, by roughly twofold. Furthermore, the MS approach remained relatively accurate when diversification rates were heterogeneous within clades, despite the widespread assumption that it requires constant rates within clades. Overall, we caution that BAMM may be problematic for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  14. Estimation of shear viscosity based on transverse momentum correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Monika

    2009-01-01

    Event anisotropy measurements at RHIC suggest the strongly interacting matter created in heavy ion collisions flows with very little shear viscosity. Precise determination of 'shear viscosity-to-entropy' ratio is currently a subject of extensive study [S. Gavin and M. Abdel-Aziz, Phys. Rev. Lett. 97 (2006) 162302]. We present preliminary results of measurements of the evolution of transverse momentum correlation function with collision centrality of Au+Au interactions at √(s NN )=200 GeV. We compare two differential correlation functions, namely inclusive [J. Adams et al. (STAR Collaboration), Phys. Rev. C 72 (2005) 044902] and a differential version of the correlation measure C introduced by Gavin et al. [S. Gavin and M. Abdel-Aziz, Phys. Rev. Lett. 97 (2006) 162302; M. Sharma and C. A. Pruneau, Phys. Rev. C 79 (2009) 024905.]. These observables can be used for the experimental study of the shear viscosity per unit entropy.

  15. Estimation of shear viscosity based on transverse momentum correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    STAR Collaboration; Sharma, Monika; STAR Collaboration

    2009-11-01

    Event anisotropy measurements at RHIC suggest the strongly interacting matter created in heavy ion collisions flows with very little shear viscosity. Precise determination of “shear viscosity-to-entropy” ratio is currently a subject of extensive study [S. Gavin and M. Abdel-Aziz, Phys. Rev. Lett. 97 (2006) 162302]. We present preliminary results of measurements of the evolution of transverse momentum correlation function with collision centrality of Au+Au interactions at s=200 GeV. We compare two differential correlation functions, namely inclusive [J. Adams et al. (STAR Collaboration), Phys. Rev. C 72 (2005) 044902] and a differential version of the correlation measure C˜ introduced by Gavin et al. [S. Gavin and M. Abdel-Aziz, Phys. Rev. Lett. 97 (2006) 162302; M. Sharma and C. A. Pruneau, Phys. Rev. C 79 (2009) 024905.]. These observables can be used for the experimental study of the shear viscosity per unit entropy.

  16. Blood viscosity during coagulation at different shear rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranucci, Marco; Laddomada, Tommaso; Ranucci, Matteo; Baryshnikova, Ekaterina

    2014-01-01

    Abstract During the coagulation process, blood changes from a liquid to a solid gel phase. These changes are reflected by changes in blood viscosity; however, blood viscosity at different shear rates (SR) has not been previously explored during the coagulation process. In this study, we investigated the viscosity changes of whole blood in 10 subjects with a normal coagulation profile, using a cone‐on‐plate viscosimeter. For each subject, three consecutive measurements were performed, at a SR of 20, 40, 80 sec−1. On the basis of the time‐dependent changes in blood viscosity, we identified the gel point (GP), the time‐to‐gel point (TGP), the maximum clot viscosity (MCV), and the clot lysis half‐time (CLH). The TGP significantly (P = 0.0023) shortened for increasing SR, and was significantly associated with the activated partial thromboplastin time at a SR of 20 sec−1 (P = 0.038) and 80 sec−1 (P = 0.019). The MCV was significantly lower at a SR of 80 sec−1 versus 40 sec−1 (P = 0.027) and the CLH significantly (P = 0.048) increased for increasing SR. These results demonstrate that measurement of blood viscosity during the coagulation process offers a number of potentially useful parameters. In particular, the association between the TGP and the activated partial thromboplastin time is an expression of the clotting time (intrinsic and common pathway), and its shortening for increasing SR may be interpreted the well‐known activating effects of SR on platelet activation and thrombin generation. Further studies focused on the TGP under conditions of hypo‐ or hypercoagulability are required to confirm its role in the clinical practice. PMID:24994896

  17. Estimating the shear strength of concrete with coarse aggregate replacement

    OpenAIRE

    Folagbade Olusoga Peter ORIOLA; George MOSES; Jacob Oyeniyi AFOLAYAN; John Engbonye SANI

    2017-01-01

    For economic, environmental and practical reasons, it is desirable to replace the constituents of concrete with wastes and cheaper alternative materials. However, it is best when such replacements are done at optimum replacement levels. In view of this, a laboratory investigative test was carried out to evaluate the shear strength of concrete with coarse aggregate replacement by Coconut Shell and by Waste Rubber Tyre. The coarse aggregate replacement was done at recommended optimum proportion...

  18. Estimation of viscoelastic parameters in Prony series from shear wave propagation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Jae-Wook; Hong, Jung-Wuk, E-mail: j.hong@kaist.ac.kr, E-mail: jwhong@alum.mit.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, KAIST, 291 Deahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Hyoung-Ki; Choi, Kiwan [Health and Medical Equipment, Samsung Electronics, 1003 Daechi-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul 135-280 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-06-21

    When acquiring accurate ultrasonic images, we must precisely estimate the mechanical properties of the soft tissue. This study investigates and estimates the viscoelastic properties of the tissue by analyzing shear waves generated through an acoustic radiation force. The shear waves are sourced from a localized pushing force acting for a certain duration, and the generated waves travel horizontally. The wave velocities depend on the mechanical properties of the tissue such as the shear modulus and viscoelastic properties; therefore, we can inversely calculate the properties of the tissue through parametric studies.

  19. Implementation of a Refined Shear Rating Methodology for Prestressed Concrete Girder Bridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-01

    Lower than desirable shear ratings at the ends of prestressed concrete beams have been the topic of ongoing research between MnDOT and the University of Minnesota. A recent study by the University of Minnesota entitled Investigation of Shear Distribu...

  20. The Influence of Forming Directions and Strain Rate on Dynamic Shear Properties of Aerial Aluminum Alloy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Meng

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic shear properties under high strain rate are an important basis for studying the dynamic mechanical properties and microscopic mechanisms of materials. Dynamic impact shear tests of aerial aluminum alloy 7050-T7451 in rolling direction (RD, transverse direction (TD and normal direction (ND were performed at a range of strain rates from 2.5 × 104 s−1 to 4.5 × 104 s−1 by High Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB. The influence of different forming directions and strain rates on the dynamic shear properties of material and the microstructure evolution under dynamic shear were emphatically analyzed. The results showed that aluminum alloy 7050-T7451 had a certain strain rate sensitivity and positive strain rate strengthening effect, and also the material had no obvious strain strengthening effect. Different forming directions had a great influence on dynamic shear properties. The shear stress in ND was the largest, followed by that in RD, and the lowest was that in TD. The microstructure observation showed that the size and orientation of the grain structure were different in three directions, which led to the preferred orientation of the material. All of those were the main reasons for the difference of dynamic shear properties of the material.

  1. Frictional processes in smectite-rich gouges sheared at slow to high slip rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aretusini, Stefano; Mittempergher, Silvia; Gualtieri, Alessandro; Di Toro, Giulio

    2015-04-01

    The slipping zones of shallow sections of megathrusts and of large landslides are often smectite-rich (e.g., montmorillonite type). Consequently, similar "frictional" processes operating at high slip rates (> 1 m/s) might be responsible of the large slips estimated in megathrust (50 m for the 2011 Tohoku Mw 9.1 earthquake) and measured in large landslides (500 m for the 1963 Vajont slide, Italy). At present, only rotary shear apparatuses can reproduce simultaneously the large slips and slip rates of these events. Noteworthy, the frictional processes proposed so far (thermal and thermochemical pressurization, etc.) remain rather obscure. Here we present preliminary results obtained with the ROtary Shear Apparatus (ROSA) installed at Padua University. Thirty-one experiments were performed at ambient conditions on pure end-members of (1) smectite-rich standard powders (STx-1b: ~68 wt% Ca-montmorillonite, ~30 wt% opal-CT and ~2 wt% quartz), (2) quartz powders (qtz) and (3) on 80:20 = Stx-1b:qtz mixtures. The gouges were sandwiched between two (1) hollow (25/15 mm external/internal diameter) or (2) solid (25 mm in diameter) stainless-steel made cylinders and confined by inner and outer Teflon rings (only outer for solid cylinders). Gouges were sheared at a normal stress of 5 MPa, slip rates V from 300 μm/s to 1.5 m/s and total slip of 3 m. The deformed gouges were investigated with quantitative (Rietveld method with internal standard) X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). In the smectite-rich standard endmember, (1) for 300 μm/s ≤ V ≤ 0.1 m/s, initial friction coefficient (μi) was 0.6±0.05 whereas the steady-state friction coefficient (μss) was velocity and slip strengthening (μss 0.85±0.05), (2) for 0.1 m/s 0.8 m/s, velocity and slip weakening (μi = 0.7±0.1 and μss = 0.25±0.05). In the 80:20 Stx-1b:qtz mixtures, (1) for 300 μm/s ≤ V ≤ 0.1 m/s, μi ranged was 0.7±0.05 and increased with slip to μss = 0.77±0

  2. Shear Elasticity and Shear Viscosity Imaging in Soft Tissue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yiqun

    In this thesis, a new approach is introduced that provides estimates of shear elasticity and shear viscosity using time-domain measurements of shear waves in viscoelastic media. Simulations of shear wave particle displacements induced by an acoustic radiation force are accelerated significantly by a GPU. The acoustic radiation force is first calculated using the fast near field method (FNM) and the angular spectrum approach (ASA). The shear waves induced by the acoustic radiation force are then simulated in elastic and viscoelastic media using Green's functions. A parallel algorithm is developed to perform these calculations on a GPU, where the shear wave particle displacements at different observation points are calculated in parallel. The resulting speed increase enables rapid evaluation of shear waves at discrete points, in 2D planes, and for push beams with different spatial samplings and for different values of the f-number (f/#). The results of these simulations show that push beams with smaller f/# require a higher spatial sampling rate. The significant amount of acceleration achieved by this approach suggests that shear wave simulations with the Green's function approach are ideally suited for high-performance GPUs. Shear wave elasticity imaging determines the mechanical parameters of soft tissue by analyzing measured shear waves induced by an acoustic radiation force. To estimate the shear elasticity value, the widely used time-of-flight method calculates the correlation between shear wave particle velocities at adjacent lateral observation points. Although this method provides accurate estimates of the shear elasticity in purely elastic media, our experience suggests that the time-of-flight (TOF) method consistently overestimates the shear elasticity values in viscoelastic media because the combined effects of diffraction, attenuation, and dispersion are not considered. To address this problem, we have developed an approach that directly accounts for all

  3. Microstructural evolution in adiabatic shear bands of copper at high strain rates: Electron backscatter diffraction characterization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Lin; Chen Zhiyong; Zhan Congkun; Yang Xuyue; Liu Chuming; Cai Hongnian

    2012-01-01

    The microstructural evolution of adiabatic shear bands in annealed copper with different large strains at high strain rates has been investigated by electron backscatter diffraction. The results show that mechanical twinning can occur with minimal contribution to shear localization under dynamic loading. Elongated ultrafine grains with widths of 100–300 nm are observed during the evolution of the adiabatic shear bands. A rotational dynamic recrystallization mechanism is proposed to explain the formation of the elongated ultrafine grains. - Highlights: ► The microstructural evolution of ASB is studied by electron backscatter diffraction. ► Twinning can occur in ASB while the contribution to shear localization is slight. ► Elongated ultrafine grains are observed during the evolution process of ASB. ► A possible mechanism is proposed to explain the microstructure evolution of ASB.

  4. Estimates of Shear Stress and Measurements of Water Levels in the Lower Fox River near Green Bay, Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westenbroek, Stephen M.

    2006-01-01

    Turbulent shear stress in the boundary layer of a natural river system largely controls the deposition and resuspension of sediment, as well as the longevity and effectiveness of granular-material caps used to cover and isolate contaminated sediments. This report documents measurements and calculations made in order to estimate shear stress and shear velocity on the Lower Fox River, Wisconsin. Velocity profiles were generated using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) mounted on a moored vessel. This method of data collection yielded 158 velocity profiles on the Lower Fox River between June 2003 and November 2004. Of these profiles, 109 were classified as valid and were used to estimate the bottom shear stress and velocity using log-profile and turbulent kinetic energy methods. Estimated shear stress ranged from 0.09 to 10.8 dynes per centimeter squared. Estimated coefficients of friction ranged from 0.001 to 0.025. This report describes both the field and data-analysis methods used to estimate shear-stress parameters for the Lower Fox River. Summaries of the estimated values for bottom shear stress, shear velocity, and coefficient of friction are presented. Confidence intervals about the shear-stress estimates are provided.

  5. A dilatometer to measure the influence of cooling rate and melt shearing on specific volume

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Beek, M.H.E.; Peters, G.W.M.; Meijer, H.E.H.

    2005-01-01

    We developed a dilatometer to investigate the specific volume of polymers as a function of pressure (to 100 MPa), temperature (to 260 oC), cooling rate (to 80 C/s), and shear rate (to 77 1/s). The dilatometeris based on the principle of con¯ned compression and comprises of a pressure cell used in

  6. Shear rate analysis of water dynamic in the continuous stirred tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulus; Mardiningsih; Sawaluddin; Sitompul, O. S.; Ihsan, A. K. A. M.

    2018-02-01

    Analysis of mixture in a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) is an important part in some process of biogas production. This paper is a preliminary study of fluid dynamic phenomenon in a continuous stirred tank numerically. The tank is designed in the form of cylindrical tank equipped with a stirrer. In this study, it is considered that the tank is filled with water. Stirring is done with a stirring speed of 10rpm, 15rpm, 20rpm, and 25rpm. Mathematical modeling of stirred tank is derived. The model is calculated by using the finite element method that are calculated using CFD software. The result shows that the shear rate is high on the front end portion of the stirrer. The maximum shear rate tend to a stable behaviour after the stirring time of 2 second. The relation between the speed and the maximum shear rate is in the form of linear equation.

  7. Adiabatic shear bands as predictors of strain rate in high speed machining of ramax-2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeb, M.A.; Irfan, M.A.; Velduis, A.C.

    2008-01-01

    Shear band formation was studied in the chips obtained by turning of stainless steel- Ramax-2 (AISI 420F). The machining was performed on a CNC lathe using a PVD (Physical Vapor Deposition) cutting tool insert. The cutting speeds ranged from 50 m/ min to 250 m/min. Dry cutting conditions were employed. At cutting speeds higher than 30 m/mill, the chip did not remain intact with the workpiece using quick stop device. It was difficult to get the chip root SEM (Scanning Electron Microscope) micrographs at further higher speeds. Therefore, the width of the shear bands was used as the predictor of the strain rates involved at various cutting speeds. The results showed that the strain rates are quite in agreement with the amount of strain rate found during machining of such types of stainless steels. It was also observed that shear band density increased with increasing cutting speed. (author)

  8. Flow rate dependency of critical wall shear stress in a radial-flow cell

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Detry, J.G.; Jensen, Bo Boye Busk; Sindic, M.

    2009-01-01

    In the present work, a radial-flow cell was used to study the removal of starch particle aggregates from several solid substrates (glass, stainless steel, polystyrene and PTFE) in order to determine the critical wall shear stress value for each case. The particle aggregates were formed by aspersion...... of a water or ethanol suspension of starch granules on the surfaces. Depending on the substrate and on the suspending liquid, the aggregates differed in size and shape. Aggregate removal was studied at two flow rates. At the lower flow rate (Re-inlet = 955), the values of critical wall shear stress...... for the different surfaces suggested that capillary forces were, for all of them, playing an important role in aggregate adhesion since aqueous based aggregates were always more difficult to remove. At the higher flow rate (Re-inlet = 2016) the critical wall shear stress increased as a result of the change...

  9. Evaluation of total energy-rate feedback for glidescope tracking in wind shear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belcastro, C. M.; Ostroff, A. J.

    1986-01-01

    Low-altitude wind shear is recognized as an infrequent but significant hazard to all aircraft during take-off and landing. A total energy-rate sensor, which is potentially applicable to this problem, has been developed for measuring specific total energy-rate of an airplane with respect to the air mass. This paper presents control system designs, with and without energy-rate feedback, for the approach to landing of a transport airplane through severe wind shear and gusts to evaluate application of this sensor. A system model is developed which incorporates wind shear dynamics equations with the airplance equations of motion, thus allowing the control systems to be analyzed under various wind shears. The control systems are designed using optimal output feedback and are analyzed using frequency domain control theory techniques. Control system performance is evaluated using a complete nonlinear simulation of the airplane and a severe wind shear and gust data package. The analysis and simulation results indicate very similar stability and performance characteristics for the two designs. An implementation technique for distributing the velocity gains between airspeed and ground speed in the simulation is also presented, and this technique is shown to improve the performance characteristics of both designs.

  10. Loss tangent and complex modulus estimated by acoustic radiation force creep and shear wave dispersion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amador, Carolina; Urban, Matthew W; Chen, Shigao; Greenleaf, James F

    2012-03-07

    Elasticity imaging methods have been used to study tissue mechanical properties and have demonstrated that tissue elasticity changes with disease state. In current shear wave elasticity imaging methods typically only shear wave speed is measured and rheological models, e.g. Kelvin-Voigt, Maxwell and Standard Linear Solid, are used to solve for tissue mechanical properties such as the shear viscoelastic complex modulus. This paper presents a method to quantify viscoelastic material properties in a model-independent way by estimating the complex shear elastic modulus over a wide frequency range using time-dependent creep response induced by acoustic radiation force. This radiation force induced creep method uses a conversion formula that is the analytic solution of a constitutive equation. The proposed method in combination with shearwave dispersion ultrasound vibrometry is used to measure the complex modulus so that knowledge of the applied radiation force magnitude is not necessary. The conversion formula is shown to be sensitive to sampling frequency and the first reliable measure in time according to numerical simulations using the Kelvin-Voigt model creep strain and compliance. Representative model-free shear complex moduli from homogeneous tissue mimicking phantoms and one excised swine kidney were obtained. This work proposes a novel model-free ultrasound-based elasticity method that does not require a rheological model with associated fitting requirements.

  11. Influence of static pressure and shear rate on hemolysis of red blood cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasuda, T; Funakubo, A; Miyawaki, F; Kawamura, T; Higami, T; Fukui, Y

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of multiple mechanical forces in hemolysis. Specific attention is focused on the effects of shear and pressure. An experimental apparatus consisting of a rotational viscometer, compression chamber, and heat exchanger was prepared to apply multiple mechanical forces to a blood sample. The rotational viscometer, in which bovine blood was subjected to shear rates of 0, 500, 1,000, and 1,500 s(-1), was set in the compression chamber and pressurized with an air compressor at 0, 200, 400, and 600 mm Hg. The blood temperature was maintained at 21 degrees C and 28 degrees C. Free hemoglobin at 600 mm Hg was observed to be approximately four times higher than at 0 mm Hg for a shear rate of 1,500 s(-1) (p dynamics analysis, flow visualization, and computational fluid dynamics.

  12. Effects of different aging statuses and strain rate on the adiabatic shear susceptibility of 2195 aluminum–lithium alloy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Y.; Tan, G.Y.; Chen, P.X.; Zhang, Q.M.

    2012-01-01

    The adiabatic shear susceptibility of 2195 aluminum–lithium alloy was investigated by means of split Hopkinson pressure bar. The stress collapse in true stress–true strain curves and true stress–time curves was observed. The adiabatic shear susceptibility of different aging statuses and strain rate were discussed by means of metallography observation. The critical strain, stress collapse time and formation energy of adiabatic shear bands were compared. The results show that different aging statuses and strain rate have significant influences on adiabatic shear behaviors of 2195 aluminum–lithium alloy. The peak-aged specimen has the highest adiabatic shearing susceptibility, while the under-aged specimen has the least adiabatic shear susceptibility. The susceptibility of adiabatic shearing increases with the increases of strain rate.

  13. Effects of different aging statuses and strain rate on the adiabatic shear susceptibility of 2195 aluminum-lithium alloy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Y. [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, Hunan (China); State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology, Beijing 100081 (China); Tan, G.Y., E-mail: yangyanggroup@163.com [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, Hunan (China); Chen, P.X. [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, Hunan (China); Zhang, Q.M. [State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology, Beijing 100081 (China)

    2012-06-01

    The adiabatic shear susceptibility of 2195 aluminum-lithium alloy was investigated by means of split Hopkinson pressure bar. The stress collapse in true stress-true strain curves and true stress-time curves was observed. The adiabatic shear susceptibility of different aging statuses and strain rate were discussed by means of metallography observation. The critical strain, stress collapse time and formation energy of adiabatic shear bands were compared. The results show that different aging statuses and strain rate have significant influences on adiabatic shear behaviors of 2195 aluminum-lithium alloy. The peak-aged specimen has the highest adiabatic shearing susceptibility, while the under-aged specimen has the least adiabatic shear susceptibility. The susceptibility of adiabatic shearing increases with the increases of strain rate.

  14. Estimation of shear stress in counter-current gas-liquid annular two-phase flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Yutaka; Akimoto, Hajime; Murao, Yoshio

    1991-01-01

    The accuracy of the correlations of the friction factor is important for the counter-current flow (CCF) analysis with two-fluid model. However, existing two fluid model codes use the correlations of friction factors for co-current flow or correlation developed based on the assumption of no wall shear stress. The assessment calculation for two fluid model code with those existing correlations of friction factors shows the falling water flow rate is overestimated. Analytical model is developed to calculate the shear stress distribution in water film at CCF in order to get the information on the shear stress at the interface and the wall. The analytical results with the analysis model and Bharathan's CCF data shows that the wall shear stress acting on the falling water film is almost same order as the interfacial shear stress and the correlations for co-current flow cannot be applied to the counter-current flow. Tentative correlations of the interfacial and the wall friction factors are developed based on the results of the present study. (author)

  15. The Neutral Interest Rate: Estimates for Chile

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigo Fuentes S; Fabián Gredig U.

    2008-01-01

    To estimate the neutral real interest rate for Chile, we use a variety of methods that can be classified into three categories: those derived from economic theory, the neutral rate implicit in financial assets, and statistical procedures using macroeconomic data. We conclude that the neutral rate is not constant over time, but it is closely related with—though not equivalent to—the potential GDP growth rate. The application of the different methods yields fairly similar results. The neutral r...

  16. Cladoceran birth and death rates estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriel, Wilfried; Taylor, B. E.; Kirsch-Prokosch, Susanne

    1987-01-01

    I. Birth and death rates of natural cladoceran populations cannot be measured directly. Estimates of these population parameters must be calculated using methods that make assumptions about the form of population growth. These methods generally assume that the population has a stable age distribution. 2. To assess the effect of variable age distributions, we tested six egg ratio methods for estimating birth and death rates with data from thirty-seven laboratory populations of Daphnia puli...

  17. Rheokinetics and effect of shear rate on the kinetics of linear polyurethane formation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Navarchian, AH; Picchioni, F; Janssen, LPBM

    In this article, the rheokinetics of polyurethane formation and the influence of shear rate on its kinetics have been studied. Two different linear polyurethane systems with 0% and 100% hard segments are examined in a cone and plate rheometer. The isothermal increase of viscosity during polyurethane

  18. Hydrodynamic characterization and molecular weight estimation of ultrasonically sheared DNA; Caracterizacion hidrodinamica y estimacion de pesos moleculares de DNA degradado por ultrasonidos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casal, J I; Garces, F; Garcia-Sacristan, A

    1981-07-01

    The sedimentation coefficients and intrinsic viscosities of ultrasonically sheared calf thymus DNA have been determined. The molecular weight estimation according to this parameters have been compared with the ones obtained from the electrophoretic migration rates based on the calibration proposed using the known molecular weight restriction fragments of X-ENA. (Author) 35 refs.

  19. High-Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating Shear Banding and Fracture

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-22

    High Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating Shear Banding and Fracture The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 12. DISTRIBUTION AVAILIBILITY STATEMENT 6. AUTHORS...Report as of 05-Dec-2017 Agreement Number: W911NF-13-1-0238 Organization: Columbia University Title: High Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating

  20. Relationship between the shear viscosity and heating rate in metallic glasses below the glass transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khonik, Vitaly A.; Kobelev, N. P.

    2008-01-01

    It has been shown that first-order irreversible structural relaxation with distributed activation energies must lead to a linear decrease of the logarithm of Newtonian shear viscosity with the logarithm of heating rate upon linear heating of glass. Such a behavior is indeed observed in the experiments on metallic glasses. Structural relaxation-induced viscous flow leads to infra-low-frequency Maxwell viscoelastic internal friction, which is predicted to increase with the heating rate

  1. GREAT3 results - I. Systematic errors in shear estimation and the impact of real galaxy morphology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mandelbaum, R.; Rowe, B.; Armstrong, R.; Bard, D.; Bertin, E.; Bosch, J.; Boutigny, D.; Courbin, F.; Dawson, W. A.; Donnarumma, A.; Fenech Conti, I.; Gavazzi, R.; Gentile, M.; Gill, M. S. S.; Hogg, D. W.; Huff, E. M.; Jee, M. J.; Kacprzak, T.; Kilbinger, M.; Kuntzer, T.; Lang, D.; Luo, W.; March, M. C.; Marshall, P. J.; Meyers, J. E.; Miller, L.; Miyatake, H.; Nakajima, R.; Ngole Mboula, F. M.; Nurbaeva, G.; Okura, Y.; Paulin-Henriksson, S.; Rhodes, J.; Schneider, M. D.; Shan, H.; Sheldon, E. S.; Simet, M.; Starck, J. -L.; Sureau, F.; Tewes, M.; Zarb Adami, K.; Zhang, J.; Zuntz, J.

    2015-05-01

    We present first results from the third GRavitational lEnsing Accuracy Testing (GREAT3) challenge, the third in a sequence of challenges for testing methods of inferring weak gravitational lensing shear distortions from simulated galaxy images. GREAT3 was divided into experiments to test three specific questions, and included simulated space- and ground-based data with constant or cosmologically varying shear fields. The simplest (control) experiment included parametric galaxies with a realistic distribution of signal-to-noise, size, and ellipticity, and a complex point spread function (PSF). The other experiments tested the additional impact of realistic galaxy morphology, multiple exposure imaging, and the uncertainty about a spatially varying PSF; the last two questions will be explored in Paper II. The 24 participating teams competed to estimate lensing shears to within systematic error tolerances for upcoming Stage-IV dark energy surveys, making 1525 submissions overall. GREAT3 saw considerable variety and innovation in the types of methods applied. Several teams now meet or exceed the targets in many of the tests conducted (to within the statistical errors). We conclude that the presence of realistic galaxy morphology in simulations changes shear calibration biases by ~1 per cent for a wide range of methods. Other effects such as truncation biases due to finite galaxy postage stamps, and the impact of galaxy type as measured by the Sérsic index, are quantified for the first time. Our results generalize previous studies regarding sensitivities to galaxy size and signal-to-noise, and to PSF properties such as seeing and defocus. Almost all methods’ results support the simple model in which additive shear biases depend linearly on PSF ellipticity.

  2. Sense of shear and displacement estimates in the Abeibara-Rarhous late Pan-African shear zone, Adrar des Iforas, Mali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boullier, Anne-Marie

    The late Pan-African Abeibara-Rarhous shear zone in the Adrar des Iforas (Mali) is described and studied with the aim of defining the direction, sense of movement and amount of displacement along the zone. It is a strike-slip shear zone, the dextral sense of which is demonstrated at the scale of the map by the rotation of the related mylonitic foliation and at the scale of the thin section with characteristic microstructures. Preferred orientation of quartz c-axes is tentatively used; three quartz-rich samples of 35% or more quartz indicate dextral strike-slip movement, but other samples do not show preferred orientation of quartz c-axes. Strain measurements have been performed on one half of the shear zone using established techniques and a new technique using the thickness of mylonitic layering. The results vary along the length of the shear zone when using the same method and for the same cross-section when using the three methods together. A mean value of 4 km is obtained for total displacement which is low when considering the apparent width of the shear zone. This result is discussed in view of the assumptions involved in the strain estimation. The tectonic history of the Abeibara-Rarhous shear zone and its significance in the Trans-Saharan Pan-African collisional belt are discussed.

  3. Estimation of in-situ stresses in concrete members using polarized ultrasonic shear waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Andrew; Schumacher, Thomas

    2014-02-01

    Ultrasonic testing is commonly used to detect flaws, estimate geometries, and characterize properties of materials and structures. Acoustoelasticity refers to the dependency of stress wave velocity with applied stresses and is a phenomenon that has been known by geophysicists since the 1960s. A way to capitalize on this effect for concrete applications is by using ultrasonic shear waves which are particularly sensitive to applied stresses when polarized in the direction of the applied stress. The authors conducted an experiment on a 150 mm (6 in.) diameter concrete cylinder specimen with a length of 305 mm (12 in.) that was loaded in discrete load steps to failure. At each load step two ultrasonic shear waves were transmitted through the specimen, one with the polarization perpendicular and the other transverse to the applied stress. The velocity difference between the two sets of polarized shear waves was found to correlate with the applied stress in the specimen. Two potential applications for this methodology include estimation of stresses in pre-stressed concrete bridge girders and investigation of load redistribution in structural support elements after extreme events. This paper introduces the background of the methodology, presents an analysis of the collected data, and discusses the relationship between the recorded signals and the applied stress.

  4. Bayesian estimation of dose rate effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnish, J.J.; Groer, P.G.

    2000-01-01

    A Bayesian statistical method was used to quantify the effectiveness of high dose rate 137 Cs gamma radiation at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice. The Bayesian approach considers both the temporal and dose dependence of radiation carcinogenesis and total mortality. This paper provides the first direct estimation of dose rate effectiveness using Bayesian statistics. This statistical approach provides a quantitative description of the uncertainty of the factor characterising the dose rate in terms of a probability density function. The results show that a fixed dose from 137 Cs gamma radiation delivered at a high dose rate is more effective at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice than the same dose delivered at a low dose rate. (author)

  5. Epistemic uncertainties when estimating component failure rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan Cizelj, R.; Mavko, B.; Kljenak, I.

    2000-01-01

    A method for specific estimation of a component failure rate, based on specific quantitative and qualitative data other than component failures, was developed and is described in the proposed paper. The basis of the method is the Bayesian updating procedure. A prior distribution is selected from a generic database, whereas likelihood is built using fuzzy logic theory. With the proposed method, the component failure rate estimation is based on a much larger quantity of information compared to the presently used classical methods. Consequently, epistemic uncertainties, which are caused by lack of knowledge about a component or phenomenon are reduced. (author)

  6. FRACTURE MECHANICS APPROACH TO ESTIMATE FATIGUE LIVES OF WELDED LAP-SHEAR SPECIMENS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lam, P.; Michigan, J.

    2014-04-25

    A full range of stress intensity factor solutions for a kinked crack is developed as a function of weld width and the sheet thickness. When used with the associated main crack solutions (global stress intensity factors) in terms of the applied load and specimen geometry, the fatigue lives can be estimated for the laser-welded lap-shear specimens. The estimations are in good agreement with the experimental data. A classical solution for an infinitesimal kink is also employed in the approach. However, the life predictions tend to overestimate the actual fatigue lives. The traditional life estimations with the structural stress along with the experimental stress-fatigue life data (S-N curve) are also provided. In this case, the estimations only agree with the experimental data under higher load conditions.

  7. Effects of the shear layer growth rate on the supersonic jet noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozawa, Yuta; Nonomura, Taku; Oyama, Akira; Mamori, Hiroya; Fukushima, Naoya; Yamamoto, Makoto

    2017-11-01

    Strong acoustic waves emitted from rocket plume might damage to rocket payloads because their payloads consist of fragile structure. Therefore, understanding and prediction of acoustic wave generation are of importance not only in science, but also in engineering. The present study makes experiments of a supersonic jet flow at the Mach number of 2.0 and investigates a relationship between growth rate of a shear layer and noise generation of the supersonic jet. We conducted particle image velocimetry (PIV) and acoustic measurements for three different shaped nozzles. These nozzles were employed to control the condition of a shear layer of the supersonic jet flow. We applied single-pixel ensemble correlation method (Westerweel et al., 2004) for the PIV images to obtain high-resolution averaged velocity profiles. This correlation method enabled us to obtain detailed data of the shear layer. For all cases, acoustic measurements clearly shows the noise source position at the end of a potential core of the jet. In the case where laminar to turbulent transition occurred in the shear layer, the sound pressure level increased by 4 dB at the maximum. This research is partially supported by Presto, JST (JPMJPR1678) and KAKENHI (25709009 and 17H03473).

  8. Biofouling of reverse-osmosis membranes under different shear rates during tertiary wastewater desalination: microbial community composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Ashhab, Ashraf; Gillor, Osnat; Herzberg, Moshe

    2014-12-15

    We investigated the influence of feed-water shear rate during reverse-osmosis (RO) desalination on biofouling with respect to microbial community composition developed on the membrane surface. The RO membrane biofilm's microbial community profile was elucidated during desalination of tertiary wastewater effluent in a flat-sheet lab-scale system operated under high (555.6 s(-1)), medium (370.4 s(-1)), or low (185.2 s(-1)) shear rates, corresponding to average velocities of 27.8, 18.5, and 9.3 cm s(-1), respectively. Bacterial diversity was highest when medium shear was applied (Shannon-Weaver diversity index H' = 4.30 ± 0.04) compared to RO-membrane biofilm developed under lower and higher shear rates (H' = 3.80 ± 0.26 and H' = 3.42 ± 0.38, respectively). At the medium shear rate, RO-membrane biofilms were dominated by Betaproteobacteria, whereas under lower and higher shear rates, the biofilms were dominated by Alpha- and Gamma- Proteobacteria, and the latter biofilms also contained Deltaproteobacteria. Bacterial abundance on the RO membrane was higher at low and medium shear rates compared to the high shear rate: 8.97 × 10(8) ± 1.03 × 10(3), 4.70 × 10(8) ± 1.70 × 10(3) and 5.72 × 10(6) ± 2.09 × 10(3) copy number per cm(2), respectively. Interestingly, at the high shear rate, the RO-membrane biofilm's bacterial community consisted mainly of populations known to excrete high amounts of extracellular polymeric substances. Our results suggest that the RO-membrane biofilm's community composition, structure and abundance differ in accordance with applied shear rate. These results shed new light on the biofouling phenomenon and are important for further development of antibiofouling strategies for RO membranes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Characterization of commercial magnetorheological fluids at high shear rate: influence of the gap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golinelli, Nicola; Spaggiari, Andrea

    2018-07-01

    This paper reports the experimental tests on the behaviour of a commercial MR fluid at high shear rates and the effect of the gap. Three gaps were considered at multiple magnetic fields and shear rates. From an extended set of almost two hundred experimental flow curves, a set of parameters for the apparent viscosity are retrieved by using the Ostwald de Waele model for non-Newtonian fluids. It is possible to simplify the parameter correlation by making the following considerations: the consistency of the model depends only on the magnetic field, the flow index depends on the fluid type and the gap shows an important effect only at null or very low magnetic fields. This lead to a simple and useful model, especially in the design phase of a MR based product. During the off state, with no applied field, it is possible to use a standard viscous model. During the active state, with high magnetic field, a strong non-Newtonian nature becomes prevalent over the viscous one even at very high shear rate; the magnetic field dominates the apparent viscosity change, while the gap does not play any relevant role on the system behaviour. This simple assumption allows the designer to dimension the gap only considering the non-active state, as in standard viscous systems, and taking into account only the magnetic effect in the active state, where the gap does not change the proposed fluid model.

  10. Estimation of gas wall shear stress in horizontal stratified gas-liquid pipe flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newton, C.H.; Behnia, M.

    1996-01-01

    Two-phase pipe flows occur in many industrial applications, such as condensers and evaporators, chemical processing equipment, nuclear reactors, and oil pipelines. A variety of basic mechanistic flow models for predicting the pressure gradient and liquid loading characteristics of these types of flows to assist in design calculations has emerged over the past two decades, especially for the stratified and slug flow regimes. These models generally rely on a number of basic assumptions and empirical closure equations. Possibly the most notable of these relates to the evaluation of interfacial shear stresses. However, one of the most important yet least discussed assumptions used in most of these models is that the phase wall shear stresses can be accurately estimated from correlations developed for single-phase pipe flows. The object of this article is to present measurements of gas wall shear up to locations in close proximity to the gas-liquid interface for a variety of interface conditions in developed flow, and to determine the effects of the interface on average gas wall friction factors. In this context the interface may be smooth, rippled or wavy

  11. A practical method for estimating maximum shear modulus of cemented sands using unconfined compressive strength

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choo, Hyunwook; Nam, Hongyeop; Lee, Woojin

    2017-12-01

    The composition of naturally cemented deposits is very complicated; thus, estimating the maximum shear modulus (Gmax, or shear modulus at very small strains) of cemented sands using the previous empirical formulas is very difficult. The purpose of this experimental investigation is to evaluate the effects of particle size and cement type on the Gmax and unconfined compressive strength (qucs) of cemented sands, with the ultimate goal of estimating Gmax of cemented sands using qucs. Two sands were artificially cemented using Portland cement or gypsum under varying cement contents (2%-9%) and relative densities (30%-80%). Unconfined compression tests and bender element tests were performed, and the results from previous studies of two cemented sands were incorporated in this study. The results of this study demonstrate that the effect of particle size on the qucs and Gmax of four cemented sands is insignificant, and the variation of qucs and Gmax can be captured by the ratio between volume of void and volume of cement. qucs and Gmax of sand cemented with Portland cement are greater than those of sand cemented with gypsum. However, the relationship between qucs and Gmax of the cemented sand is not affected by the void ratio, cement type and cement content, revealing that Gmax of the complex naturally cemented soils with unknown in-situ void ratio, cement type and cement content can be estimated using qucs.

  12. A Copula-Based Method for Estimating Shear Strength Parameters of Rock Mass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Huang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The shear strength parameters (i.e., the internal friction coefficient f and cohesion c are very important in rock engineering, especially for the stability analysis and reinforcement design of slopes and underground caverns. In this paper, a probabilistic method, Copula-based method, is proposed for estimating the shear strength parameters of rock mass. The optimal Copula functions between rock mass quality Q and f, Q and c for the marbles are established based on the correlation analyses of the results of 12 sets of in situ tests in the exploration adits of Jinping I-Stage Hydropower Station. Although the Copula functions are derived from the in situ tests for the marbles, they can be extended to be applied to other types of rock mass with similar geological and mechanical properties. For another 9 sets of in situ tests as an extensional application, by comparison with the results from Hoek-Brown criterion, the estimated values of f and c from the Copula-based method achieve better accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Copula-based method is an effective tool in estimating rock strength parameters.

  13. Retrograde shear rate in formerly preeclamptic and healthy women before and after exercise training: relationship with endothelial function.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholten, R.R.; Spaanderman, M.E.A.; Green, D.J.; Hopman, M.T.E.; Thijssen, D.H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Blood flow patterns in conduit arteries characterized by high levels of retrograde shear stress can be detrimental for vascular health. In this study we examined whether retrograde shear rate and endothelial function are related in healthy and formerly preeclamptic (PE) women and whether this

  14. Experiments in a flighted conveyor comparing shear rates in compressed versus free surface flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohlman, Nicholas; Higgins, Hannah; Krupiarz, Kamila; O'Connor, Ryan

    2017-11-01

    Uniformity of granular flow rate is critical in industry. Experiments in a flighted conveyor system aim to fill a gap in knowledge of achieving steady mass flow rate by correlating velocity profile data with mass flow rate measurements. High speed images were collected for uniformly-shaped particles in a bottom-driven flow conveyor belt system from which the velocity profiles can be generated. The correlation of mass flow rates from the velocity profiles to the time-dependent mass measurements will determine energy dissipation rates as a function of operating conditions. The velocity profiles as a function of the size of the particles, speed of the belt, and outlet size, will be compared to shear rate relationships found in past experiments that focused on gravity-driven systems. The dimension of the linear shear and type of decaying transition to the stationary bed may appear different due to the compression versus dilation space in open flows. The application of this research can serve to validate simulations in discrete element modeling and physically demonstrate a process that can be further developed and customized for industry applications, such as feeding a biomass conversion reactor. Sponsored by NIU's Office of Student Engagement and Experiential Learning.

  15. Estimation of dose from chromosome aberration rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Deping

    1990-01-01

    The methods and skills of evaluating dose from correctly scored shromsome aberration rate are presented, and supplemented with corresponding BASIC computer code. The possibility and preventive measures of excessive probability of missing score of the aberrations in some of the current routine score methods are discussed. The use of dose-effect relationship with exposure time correction factor G in evaluating doses and their confidence intervals, dose estimation in mixed n-γ exposure, and identification of high by nonuniform acute exposure to low LET radiation and its dose estimation are discussed in more detail. The difference of estimated dose due to whether the interaction between subleisoms produced by n and γ have been taken into account is examined. In fitting the standard dose-aberration rate curve, proper weighing of experiment points and comparison with commonly accepted values are emphasised, and the coefficient of variation σ y √y of the aberration rate y as a function of dose and exposure time is given. In appendix I and II, the dose-aberration rate formula is derived from dual action theory, and the time variation of subleisom is illustrated and in appendix III, the estimation of dose from scores of two different types of aberrations (of other related score) is illustrated. Two computer codes are given in appendix IV, one is a simple code, the other a complete code, including the fitting of standard curve. the skills of using compressed data storage, and the production of simulated 'data ' for testing the curve fitting procedure are also given

  16. Estimates of bottom roughness length and bottom shear stress in South San Francisco Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, R.T.; Ling, C.-H.; Gartner, J.W.; Wang, P.-F.

    1999-01-01

    A field investigation of the hydrodynamics and the resuspension and transport of participate matter in a bottom boundary layer was carried out in South San Francisco Bay (South Bay), California, during March-April 1995. Using broadband acoustic Doppler current profilers, detailed measurements of turbulent mean velocity distribution within 1.5 m above bed have been obtained. A global method of data analysis was used for estimating bottom roughness length zo and bottom shear stress (or friction velocities u*). Field data have been examined by dividing the time series of velocity profiles into 24-hour periods and independently analyzing the velocity profile time series by flooding and ebbing periods. The global method of solution gives consistent properties of bottom roughness length zo and bottom shear stress values (or friction velocities u*) in South Bay. Estimated mean values of zo and u* for flooding and ebbing cycles are different. The differences in mean zo and u* are shown to be caused by tidal current flood-ebb inequality, rather than the flooding or ebbing of tidal currents. The bed shear stress correlates well with a reference velocity; the slope of the correlation defines a drag coefficient. Forty-three days of field data in South Bay show two regimes of zo (and drag coefficient) as a function of a reference velocity. When the mean velocity is >25-30 cm s-1, the ln zo (and thus the drag coefficient) is inversely proportional to the reference velocity. The cause for the reduction of roughness length is hypothesized as sediment erosion due to intensifying tidal currents thereby reducing bed roughness. When the mean velocity is <25-30 cm s-1, the correlation between zo and the reference velocity is less clear. A plausible explanation of scattered values of zo under this condition may be sediment deposition. Measured sediment data were inadequate to support this hypothesis, but the proposed hypothesis warrants further field investigation.

  17. Migration in the shearing sheet and estimates for young open cluster migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quillen, Alice C.; Nolting, Eric; Minchev, Ivan; De Silva, Gayandhi; Chiappini, Cristina

    2018-04-01

    Using tracer particles embedded in self-gravitating shearing sheet N-body simulations, we investigate the distance in guiding centre radius that stars or star clusters can migrate in a few orbital periods. The standard deviations of guiding centre distributions and maximum migration distances depend on the Toomre or critical wavelength and the contrast in mass surface density caused by spiral structure. Comparison between our simulations and estimated guiding radii for a few young supersolar metallicity open clusters, including NGC 6583, suggests that the contrast in mass surface density in the solar neighbourhood has standard deviation (in the surface density distribution) divided by mean of about 1/4 and larger than measured using COBE data by Drimmel and Spergel. Our estimate is consistent with a standard deviation of ˜0.07 dex in the metallicities measured from high-quality spectroscopic data for 38 young open clusters (<1 Gyr) with mean galactocentric radius 7-9 kpc.

  18. Estimating Glomerular Filtration Rate in Older People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Garasto

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We aimed at reviewing age-related changes in kidney structure and function, methods for estimating kidney function, and impact of reduced kidney function on geriatric outcomes, as well as the reliability and applicability of equations for estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR in older patients. CKD is associated with different comorbidities and adverse outcomes such as disability and premature death in older populations. Creatinine clearance and other methods for estimating kidney function are not easy to apply in older subjects. Thus, an accurate and reliable method for calculating eGFR would be highly desirable for early detection and management of CKD in this vulnerable population. Equations based on serum creatinine, age, race, and gender have been widely used. However, these equations have their own limitations, and no equation seems better than the other ones in older people. New equations specifically developed for use in older populations, especially those based on serum cystatin C, hold promises. However, further studies are needed to definitely accept them as the reference method to estimate kidney function in older patients in the clinical setting.

  19. Shear-rate-dependent strength control on the dynamics of rainfall-triggered landslides, Tokushima Prefecture, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, G.; Suemine, A.; Schulz, W.H.

    2010-01-01

    A typhoon (Typhoon No. 10) attacked Shikoku Island and the Tyugoku area of Japan in 2004. This typhoon produced a new daily precipitation record of 1317 mm on Shikoku Island and triggered hundreds of landslides in Tokushima Prefecture. One catastrophic landslide was triggered in the Shiraishi area of Kisawa village, and destroyed more than 10 houses while also leaving an unstable block high on the slope. The unstable block kept moving after the event, showing accelerating and decelerating movement during and after rainfall and reaching a displacement of several meters before countermeasures were put into place. To examine the mechanism for this landsliding characteristic, samples (weathered serpentinite) were taken from the field, and their shear behaviours examined using ring shear tests. The test results revealed that the residual shear strength of the samples is positively dependent on the shear rate, which may provide an explanation for the continuous acceleratingdecelerating process of the landsliding. The roughness of the shear surface and the microstructure of the shear zone were measured and observed by laser microscope and SEM techniques in an attempt to clarify the mechanism of shear rate effect on the residual shear strength. Copyright ?? 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Finite element approximation of flow of fluids with shear-rate- and pressure-dependent viscosity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hirn, A.; Lanzendörfer, Martin; Stebel, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 32, č. 4 (2012), s. 1604-1634 ISSN 0272-4979 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/09/0917; GA AV ČR IAA100300802; GA MŠk LC06052 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504; CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : non-Newtonian fluid * shear-rate- and pressure-dependent viscosity * finite element method * error analysis Subject RIV: BK - Fluid Dynamics Impact factor: 1.326, year: 2012

  1. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

  2. Dependency of Shear Strength on Test Rate in SiC/BSAS Ceramic Matrix Composite at Elevated Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung R.; Bansal, Narottam P.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2003-01-01

    Both interlaminar and in-plane shear strengths of a unidirectional Hi-Nicalon(TM) fiber-reinforced barium strontium aluminosilicate (SiC/BSAS) composite were determined at 1100 C in air as a function of test rate using double notch shear test specimens. The composite exhibited a significant effect of test rate on shear strength, regardless of orientation which was either in interlaminar or in in-plane direction, resulting in an appreciable shear-strength degradation of about 50 percent as test rate decreased from 3.3 10(exp -1) mm/s to 3.3 10(exp -5) mm/s. The rate dependency of composite's shear strength was very similar to that of ultimate tensile strength at 1100 C observed in a similar composite (2-D SiC/BSAS) in which tensile strength decreased by about 60 percent when test rate varied from the highest (5 MPa/s) to the lowest (0.005 MPa/s). A phenomenological, power-law slow crack growth formulation was proposed and formulated to account for the rate dependency of shear strength of the composite.

  3. Shear and Turbulence Estimates for Calculation of Wind Turbine Loads and Responses Under Hurricane Strength Winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosovic, B.; Bryan, G. H.; Haupt, S. E.

    2012-12-01

    Schwartz et al. (2010) recently reported that the total gross energy-generating offshore wind resource in the United States in waters less than 30m deep is approximately 1000 GW. Estimated offshore generating capacity is thus equivalent to the current generating capacity in the United States. Offshore wind power can therefore play important role in electricity production in the United States. However, most of this resource is located along the East Coast of the United States and in the Gulf of Mexico, areas frequently affected by tropical cyclones including hurricanes. Hurricane strength winds, associated shear and turbulence can affect performance and structural integrity of wind turbines. In a recent study Rose et al. (2012) attempted to estimate the risk to offshore wind turbines from hurricane strength winds over a lifetime of a wind farm (i.e. 20 years). According to Rose et al. turbine tower buckling has been observed in typhoons. They concluded that there is "substantial risk that Category 3 and higher hurricanes can destroy half or more of the turbines at some locations." More robust designs including appropriate controls can mitigate the risk of wind turbine damage. To develop such designs good estimates of turbine loads under hurricane strength winds are essential. We use output from a large-eddy simulation of a hurricane to estimate shear and turbulence intensity over first couple of hundred meters above sea surface. We compute power spectra of three velocity components at several distances from the eye of the hurricane. Based on these spectra analytical spectral forms are developed and included in TurbSim, a stochastic inflow turbulence code developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL, http://wind.nrel.gov/designcodes/preprocessors/turbsim/). TurbSim provides a numerical simulation including bursts of coherent turbulence associated with organized turbulent structures. It can generate realistic flow conditions that an operating turbine

  4. SEDflume - High Shear Stress Flume

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers High Shear Stress flume (SEDflume) is designed for estimating erosion rates of fine-grained and mixed fine/coarse grained sediments...

  5. Brachial Artery Flow-mediated Dilation Following Exercise with Augmented Oscillatory and Retrograde Shear Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johnson Blair D

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Acute doses of elevated retrograde shear rate (SR appear to be detrimental to endothelial function in resting humans. However, retrograde shear increases during moderate intensity exercise which also enhances post-exercise endothelial function. Since SR patterns differ with the modality of exercise, it is important to determine if augmented retrograde SR during exercise influences post-exercise endothelial function. This study tested the hypothesis that (1 increased doses of retrograde SR in the brachial artery during lower body supine cycle ergometer exercise would attenuate post-exercise flow-mediated dilation (FMD in a dose-dependent manner, and (2 antioxidant vitamin C supplementation would prevent the attenuated post-exercise FMD response. Methods Twelve men participated in four randomized exercise sessions (90 W for 20 minutes on separate days. During three of the sessions, one arm was subjected to increased oscillatory and retrograde SR using three different forearm cuff pressures (20, 40, 60 mmHg (contralateral arm served as the control and subjects ingested placebo capsules prior to exercise. A fourth session with 60 mmHg cuff pressure was performed with 1 g of vitamin C ingested prior to the session. Results Post-exercise FMD following the placebo conditions were lower in the cuffed arm versus the control arm (arm main effect: P P > 0.05. Following vitamin C treatment, post-exercise FMD in the cuffed and control arm increased from baseline (P P > 0.05. Conclusions These results indicate that augmented oscillatory and retrograde SR in non-working limbs during lower body exercise attenuates post-exercise FMD without an evident dose–response in the range of cuff pressures evaluated. Vitamin C supplementation prevented the attenuation of FMD following exercise with augmented oscillatory and retrograde SR suggesting that oxidative stress contributes to the adverse effects of oscillatory and

  6. Slip rate of the Calico fault: Implications for geologic versus geodetic rate discrepancy in the Eastern California Shear Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oskin, Michael; Perg, Lesley; Blumentritt, Dylan; Mukhopadhyay, Sujoy; Iriondo, Alexander

    2007-03-01

    Long-term (105 years) fault slip rates test the scale of discrepancy between infrequent paleoseismicity and relatively rapid geodetic rates of dextral shear in the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ). The Calico fault is one of a family of dextral faults that traverse the Mojave Desert portion of the ECSZ. Its slip rate is determined from matching and dating incised Pleistocene alluvial fan deposits and surfaces displaced by fault slip. A high-resolution topographic base acquired via airborne laser swath mapping aids in identification and mapping of deformed geomorphic features. The oldest geomorphically preserved alluvial fan, unit B, is displaced 900 ± 200 m from its source at Sheep Springs Wash in the northern Rodman Mountains. This fan deposit contains the first preserved occurrence of basalt clasts derived from the Pipkin lava field and overlies Quaternary conglomerate deposits lacking these clasts. The 40Ar/39Ar dating of two flows from this field yields consistent ages of 770 ± 40 ka and 735 ± 9 ka. An age of 650 ± 100 ka is assigned to this fan deposit based on these ages and on the oldest cosmogenic 3He exposure date of 653 ± 20 ka on a basalt boulder from the surface of unit B. This assigned age and offset together yield a mid-Pleistocene to present average slip rate of 1.4 ± 0.4 mm/yr. A younger fan surface, unit K, records 100 ± 10 m of dextral displacement and preserves original depositional morphology of its surface. Granitic boulders and pavement samples from this surface yield an average age of 56.4 ± 7.7 ka after taking into account minimal cosmogenic inheritance of granitic clasts. The displaced and dated K fans yield a slip rate of 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr. Distributed deformation of the region surrounding the fault trace, if active, could increase the overall displacement rate to 2.1 ± 0.5 mm/yr. Acceleration of slip rate from an average of 1.4 mm/yr prior to ˜50 ka to 1.8 mm/yr since ˜50 ka is possible, though a single time-averaged slip

  7. Estimation of social discount rate for Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vilma Kazlauskiene

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The paper seeks to analyse the problematics of estimation of the social discount rate (SDR. The SDR is the critical parameter of cost-benefit analysis, which allows calculating the present value of cost and the benefit of public sector investment projects. Incorrect choice of the SDR can lead to the realisation of ineffective public project or conversely, cost-effective project will be rejected. The relevance of this problem analysis is determined by discussions and different viewpoints of scientists on the choice of the most appropriate approach to determine the SDR and absence of methodically based the SDR on the national level of Lithuania. Methodology/methods: The research is performed by the scientific and methodical literature analysis, systematization, time series and regression analysis. Scientific aim: The aim of the article is to calculate the SDR based on the statistical data of Lithuania. Findings: The analysis of methods of SDR determination, as well as the researches performed by foreign researchers, allows stating that the social rate of time preference (SRTP approach is the most appropriate. The SDR, calculated by the SRTP approach, reflects the main purpose of public investment projects, i.e. to enhance social benefit for society, the best. The analyses of SDR determination practice of the foreign countries shows that the SDR level should not be universal for all states. Each country should calculate the SDR based on its own data and apply it for the assessment of public projects. Conclusions: The calculated SDR for Lithuania using the SRTP approach varies between 3.5% and 4.3%. Although it is lower than 5% that is offered by European Commission, this rate is based on the statistical data of Lithuania and should be used for the assessment of the national public projects. Applicatio

  8. Nonlinear modeling and testing of magneto-rheological fluids in low shear rate squeezing flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farjoud, Alireza; Ahmadian, Mehdi; Craft, Michael; Mahmoodi, Nima; Zhang, Xinjie

    2011-01-01

    A novel analytical investigation of magneto-rheological (MR) fluids in squeezing flows is performed and the results are validated with experimental test data. The squeeze flow of MR fluids has recently been of great interest to researchers. This is due to the large force capacity of MR fluids in squeeze mode compared to other modes (valve and shear modes), which makes the squeeze mode appropriate for a wide variety of applications such as impact dampers and engine mounts. Tested MR fluids were capable of providing a large range of controllable force along a short stroke in squeeze mode. A mathematical model was developed using perturbation techniques to predict closed-form solutions for velocity field, shear rate distribution, pressure distribution and squeeze force. Therefore, the obtained solutions greatly help with the design process of intelligent devices that use MR fluids in squeeze mode. The mathematical model also reduces the need for complicated and computationally expensive numerical simulations. The analytical results are validated by performing experimental tests on a novel MR device called an 'MR pouch' in an MR squeeze mode rheometer, both designed and built at CVeSS

  9. Comminution of solids caused by kinetic energy of high shear strain rate, with implications for impact, shock, and shale fracturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazant, Zdenek P; Caner, Ferhun C

    2013-11-26

    Although there exists a vast literature on the dynamic comminution or fragmentation of rocks, concrete, metals, and ceramics, none of the known models suffices for macroscopic dynamic finite element analysis. This paper outlines the basic idea of the macroscopic model. Unlike static fracture, in which the driving force is the release of strain energy, here the essential idea is that the driving force of comminution under high-rate compression is the release of the local kinetic energy of shear strain rate. The density of this energy at strain rates >1,000/s is found to exceed the maximum possible strain energy density by orders of magnitude, making the strain energy irrelevant. It is shown that particle size is proportional to the -2/3 power of the shear strain rate and the 2/3 power of the interface fracture energy or interface shear stress, and that the comminution process is macroscopically equivalent to an apparent shear viscosity that is proportional (at constant interface stress) to the -1/3 power of this rate. A dimensionless indicator of the comminution intensity is formulated. The theory was inspired by noting that the local kinetic energy of shear strain rate plays a role analogous to the local kinetic energy of eddies in turbulent flow.

  10. Influence of the potential well on the breakage rate of colloidal aggregates in simple shear and uniaxial extensional flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhiqiang; Harshe, Yogesh M; Lattuada, Marco

    2015-06-02

    In this work we build on our previous paper (Harshe, Y. M.; Lattuada, M. Langmuir 2012, 28, 283-292) and compute the breakage rate of colloidal aggregates under the effect of shear forces by means of Stokesian dynamics simulations. A library of clusters made of identical spherical particles covering a broad range of masses and fractal dimension values (from 1.8 to 3.0) was generated by means of a combination of several Monte Carlo methods. DLVO theory has been used to describe the interparticle interactions, and contact forces have been introduced by means of the discrete element method. The aggregate breakage process was investigated by exposing them to well-defined shear forces, generated under both simple shear and uniaxial extensional flow conditions, and by recording the time required to reach the first breakage event. It has been found that the breakage rate of clusters was controlled by the potential well between particles as described by DLVO theory. A semiempirical Arrhenius-type exponential equation that relates the potential well to the breakage rate has been used to fit the simulation results. The dependence of the breakage process on the radius of gyration, on the external shear strength, and on the fractal dimension has been obtained, providing a very general relationship for the breakage rate of clusters. It was also found that the fragment mass distribution is insensitive to the presence of electrostatic repulsive interactions. We also clarify the physical reason for the large difference in the breakage rate of clusters between simple shear and the uniaxial extensional flow using a criterion based on the energy dissipation rate. Finally, in order to answer the question of the minimum cluster size that can break under simple shear conditions, a critical rotation number has been introduced, expressing the maximum number of rotations that a cluster exposed to simple shear could sustain before breakage.

  11. Microstructural characteristics of adiabatic shear localization in a metastable beta titanium alloy deformed at high strain rate and elevated temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhan, Hongyi, E-mail: h.zhan@uq.edu.au [Centre for Advanced Materials Processing and Manufacture, School of Mechanical and Mining Engineering, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072 (Australia); Zeng, Weidong [State Key Laboratory of Solidification Processing, School of Materials, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China); Wang, Gui [Centre for Advanced Materials Processing and Manufacture, School of Mechanical and Mining Engineering, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072 (Australia); Defence Material Technology Centre, Level 2, 24 Wakefield St, Hawthorn, VIC 3122 (Australia); Kent, Damon [School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, Queensland 4575 (Australia); Dargusch, Matthew [Centre for Advanced Materials Processing and Manufacture, School of Mechanical and Mining Engineering, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072 (Australia); Defence Material Technology Centre, Level 2, 24 Wakefield St, Hawthorn, VIC 3122 (Australia)

    2015-04-15

    The microstructural evolution and grain refinement within adiabatic shear bands in the Ti6554 alloy deformed at high strain rates and elevated temperatures have been characterized using transmission electron microscopy. No stress drops were observed in the corresponding stress–strain curve, indicating that the initiation of adiabatic shear bands does not lead to the loss of load capacity for the Ti6554 alloy. The outer region of the shear bands mainly consists of cell structures bounded by dislocation clusters. Equiaxed subgrains in the core area of the shear band can be evolved from the subdivision of cell structures or reconstruction and transverse segmentation of dislocation clusters. It is proposed that dislocation activity dominates the grain refinement process. The rotational recrystallization mechanism may operate as the kinetic requirements for it are fulfilled. The coexistence of different substructures across the shear bands implies that the microstructural evolution inside the shear bands is not homogeneous and different grain refinement mechanisms may operate simultaneously to refine the structure. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted - Highlights: • The microstructure within the adiabatic shear band was characterized by TEM. • No stress drops were observed in the corresponding stress–strain curve. • Dislocation activity dominated the grain refinement process. • The kinetic requirements for rotational recrystallization mechanism were fulfilled. • Different grain refinement mechanisms operated simultaneously to refine the structure.

  12. Shear strength estimation of the concrete beams reinforced with FRP; comparison of artificial neural network and equations of regulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmood Akbari

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, numerous experimental tests were done on the concrete beams reinforced with the fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP. In this way, some equations were proposed to estimate the shear strength of the beams reinforced with FRP. The aim of this study is to explore the feasibility of using a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN model to predict the ultimate shear strength of the beams strengthened with FRP composites. For this purpose, a database consists of 304 reinforced FRP concrete beams have been collected from the available articles on the analysis of shear behavior of these beams. The inputs to the ANN model consists of the 11 variables including the geometric dimensions of the section, steel reinforcement amount, FRP amount and the properties of the concrete, steel reinforcement and FRP materials while the output variable is the shear strength of the FRP beam. To assess the performance of the ANN model for estimating the shear strength of the reinforced beams, the outputs of the ANN are compared to those of equations of the Iranian code (Publication No. 345 and the American code (ACI 440. The comparisons between the outputs of Iran and American regulations with those of the proposed model indicates that the predictive power of this model is much better than the experimental codes. Specifically, for under study data, mean absolute relative error (MARE criteria is 13%, 34% and 39% for the ANN model, the American and the Iranian codes, respectively.

  13. Uncertainty Estimation of Shear-wave Velocity Structure from Bayesian Inversion of Microtremor Array Dispersion Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dosso, S. E.; Molnar, S.; Cassidy, J.

    2010-12-01

    Bayesian inversion of microtremor array dispersion data is applied, with evaluation of data errors and model parameterization, to produce the most-probable shear-wave velocity (VS) profile together with quantitative uncertainty estimates. Generally, the most important property characterizing earthquake site response is the subsurface VS structure. The microtremor array method determines phase velocity dispersion of Rayleigh surface waves from multi-instrument recordings of urban noise. Inversion of dispersion curves for VS structure is a non-unique and nonlinear problem such that meaningful evaluation of confidence intervals is required. Quantitative uncertainty estimation requires not only a nonlinear inversion approach that samples models proportional to their probability, but also rigorous estimation of the data error statistics and an appropriate model parameterization. A Bayesian formulation represents the solution of the inverse problem in terms of the posterior probability density (PPD) of the geophysical model parameters. Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods are used with an efficient implementation of Metropolis-Hastings sampling to provide an unbiased sample from the PPD to compute parameter uncertainties and inter-relationships. Nonparametric estimation of a data error covariance matrix from residual analysis is applied with rigorous a posteriori statistical tests to validate the covariance estimate and the assumption of a Gaussian error distribution. The most appropriate model parameterization is determined using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), which provides the simplest model consistent with the resolving power of the data. Parameter uncertainties are found to be under-estimated when data error correlations are neglected and when compressional-wave velocity and/or density (nuisance) parameters are fixed in the inversion. Bayesian inversion of microtremor array data is applied at two sites in British Columbia, the area of highest seismic risk in

  14. 19 CFR 159.38 - Rates for estimated duties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... TREASURY (CONTINUED) LIQUIDATION OF DUTIES Conversion of Foreign Currency § 159.38 Rates for estimated duties. For purposes of calculating estimated duties, the port director shall use the rate or rates... 19 Customs Duties 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Rates for estimated duties. 159.38 Section 159.38...

  15. In vivo 3-dimensional Magnetic Resonance Wall Shear Stress Estimation in Ascending Aortic Dilatation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bieging, Erik T.; Frydrychowicz, Alex; Wentland, Andrew; Landgraf, Benjamin R.; Johnson, Kevin M.; Wieben, Oliver; François, Christopher J.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose To estimate surface-based wall shear stress (WSS) and evaluate flow patterns in ascending aortic dilatation (AscAD) using a high-resolution, time-resolved, three-dimensional (3D), three-directional velocity encoded, radially undersampled phase contrast magnetic resonance sequence (4D PC-MRI). Materials and Methods 4D PC-MRI was performed in 11 patients with AscAD (46.3±22.0 years) and 10 healthy volunteers (32.9±13.4 years) after written informed consent and IRB-approval. Following manual vessel wall segmentation of the ascending aorta (MATLAB, The Mathworks, Natick, MA), a 3D surface was created using spline interpolation. Spatial WSS variation based on surface division in 12 segments and temporal variation were evaluated in AscAD and normal aortas. Visual analysis of flow patterns was performed based on streamlines and particle traces using EnSight (v9.0, CEI, Apex, NC). Results AscAD was associated with significantly increased diastolic WSS, decreased systolic to diastolic WSS ratio, and delayed onset of peak WSS (all P wall of the ascending aorta. Vortical flow with highest velocities along the anterior wall and increased helical flow during diastole were observed in AscAD compared to controls. Conclusion Changes in WSS in the ascending aorta of AscAD correspond to observed alterations in flow patterns compared to controls. PMID:21563242

  16. Estimation of Shear Wave Speed in the Rhesus Macaques Uterine Cervix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Bin; Drehfal, Lindsey C.; Rosado-Mendez, Ivan M.; Guerrero, Quinton W.; Palmeri, Mark L.; Simmons, Heather A.; Feltovich, Helen; Hall, Timothy J.

    2016-01-01

    Cervical softness is a critical parameter in pregnancy. Clinically, preterm birth is associated with premature cervical softening and post-dates birth is associated with delayed cervical softening. In practice, the assessment of softness is subjective, based on digital examination. Fortunately, objective, quantitative techniques to assess softness and other parameters associated with microstructural cervical change are emerging. One of these is shear wave speed (SWS) estimation. In principle, this allows objective characterization of stiffness because waves travel more slowly in softer tissue. We are studying SWS in humans and rhesus macaques, the latter in order to accelerate translation from bench to bedside. For the current study, we estimated SWS in ex vivo cervices of rhesus macaques, n=24 nulliparous (never given birth) and n=9 multiparous (delivered at least 1 baby). Misoprostol (a prostaglandin used to soften human cervices prior to gynecological procedures) was administered to 13 macaques prior to necropsy (nulliparous: 7, multiparous: 6). SWS measurements were made at predetermined locations from the distal to proximal end of the cervix on both the anterior and posterior cervix, with 5 repeat measures at each location. The intent was to explore macaque cervical microstructure, including biological and spatial variability, to elucidate the similarities and differences between the macaque and the human cervix in order to facilitate future in vivo studies. We found that SWS is dependent on location in the normal nonpregnant macaque cervix, as in the human cervix. Unlike the human cervix, we detected no difference between ripened and unripened rhesus macaque cervix samples, nor nulliparous versus multiparous samples, although we observed a trend toward stiffer tissue in nulliparous samples. We found rhesus macaque cervix to be much stiffer than human, which is important for technique refinement. These findings are useful for guiding study of cervical

  17. Impact of finite rate chemistry on the hydrodynamic stability of shear flows in turbulent lean premixed combustion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagan, Yuval; Ghoniem, Ahmed

    2017-11-01

    Recent experimental observations show that the dynamic response of a reactive flow is strongly impacted by the fuel chemistry. In order to gain insight into some of the underlying mechanisms we formulate a new linear stability model that incorporates the impact of finite rate chemistry on the hydrodynamic stability of shear flows. Contrary to previous studies which typically assume that the velocity field is independent of the kinetic rates, the velocity field in our study is coupled with the temperature field. Using this formulation, we reproduce previous results, e.g., most unstable global modes, obtained for non-reacting shear flow. Moreover, we show that these modes are significantly altered in frequency and gain by the presence of a reaction region within the shear layer. This qualitatively agrees with results of our recent experimental and numerical studies, which show that the flame surface location relative to the shear layer influences the stability characteristics in combustion tunnels. This study suggests a physical explanation for the observed impact of finite rate chemistry on shear flow stability.

  18. Shear-wave elastography contributes to accurate tumour size estimation when assessing small breast cancers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullen, R.; Thompson, J.M.; Moussa, O.; Vinnicombe, S.; Evans, A.

    2014-01-01

    Aim: To assess whether the size of peritumoural stiffness (PTS) on shear-wave elastography (SWE) for small primary breast cancers (≤15 mm) was associated with size discrepancies between grey-scale ultrasound (GSUS) and final histological size and whether the addition of PTS size to GSUS size might result in more accurate tumour size estimation when compared to final histological size. Materials and methods: A retrospective analysis of 86 consecutive patients between August 2011 and February 2013 who underwent breast-conserving surgery for tumours of size ≤15 mm at ultrasound was carried out. The size of PTS stiffness was compared to mean GSUS size, mean histological size, and the extent of size discrepancy between GSUS and histology. PTS size and GSUS were combined and compared to the final histological size. Results: PTS of >3 mm was associated with a larger mean final histological size (16 versus 11.3 mm, p < 0.001). PTS size of >3 mm was associated with a higher frequency of underestimation of final histological size by GSUS of >5 mm (63% versus 18%, p < 0.001). The combination of PTS and GSUS size led to accurate estimation of the final histological size (p = 0.03). The size of PTS was not associated with margin involvement (p = 0.27). Conclusion: PTS extending beyond 3 mm from the grey-scale abnormality is significantly associated with underestimation of tumour size of >5 mm for small invasive breast cancers. Taking into account the size of PTS also led to accurate estimation of the final histological size. Further studies are required to assess the relationship of the extent of SWE stiffness and margin status. - Highlights: • Peritumoural stiffness of greater than 3 mm was associated with larger tumour size. • Underestimation of tumour size by ultrasound was associated with peri-tumoural stiffness size. • Combining peri-tumoural stiffness size to ultrasound produced accurate tumour size estimation

  19. Examples of invasive and non-invasive methods for estimation of shear-wave velocity profile in Bucharest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldea, A.; Albota, E.; Yamanaka, H.; Fukumoto, S.; Poiata, N.

    2007-01-01

    The estimation of subsurface shear-wave velocity is of major importance for understanding and modelling site-response and surface ground motion. The shear-wave velocity profile strongly influence the shear-wave part of the seismic motion that proved to be the most damaging one. The improvement of input seismic ground motion for design is one of the long-term objectives within the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Project in Romania. Two approaches were used: installation of a digital seismic network and soil investigations (in situ and in laboratory). National Center for Seismic Risk Reduction (NCSRR, Romania), the implementing agency of JICA Project, performed these activities in cooperation with Japanese partner institutions, and an efficient know-how transfer was achieved. Between the soil investigation activities, a special importance was given to the estimation of shear-wave velocity profile. The present paper presents results from PS logging tests at NCSRR seismic station sites, and from single-station and array microtremor measurements. Other results from PS logging tests, surface-wave method and in situ and laboratory geotechnical investigations are presented in other papers in these proceedings. In future, a joint-collaborative effort of Romanian institutions may allow an improved characterisation of the soil profile beneath Bucharest. (authors)

  20. Estimation of basal shear stresses from now ice-free LIA glacier forefields in the Swiss Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Mauro; Haeberli, Wilfried; Huss, Matthias; Paul, Frank; Linsbauer, Andreas; Hoelzle, Martin

    2013-04-01

    accuracy of the ice thickness determination and thus on the accuracy of the LIA DEMs used. Good results are expected for LIA valley or mountain glaciers with ice thicknesses larger than 100 m at the position of their terminus in 1973. Calculated shear stresses are representative in terms of average values over 20 to 40% of the total glacier length in 1850. Shear stresses strongly vary with glacier size, topographic conditions and climate. This study confirmed that reasonable values for mean basal shear stress of mountain glaciers can be estimated from an empirical and non-linear relation using the vertical extent as a proxy for mass turnover. The now available database could be used to independently test the plausibility of approaches applying simple flow models.

  1. Sibling rivalry : Estimating cannibalization rates for innovations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Heerde, H.J.; Srinivasan, S.; Dekimpe, M.G.

    2012-01-01

    To evaluate the success of a new product, managers need to determine how much of its new demand is due to cannibalizing the company’s other products, rather than drawing from competition or generating primary demand. A new model allows managers to estimate cannibalization effects and to calculate

  2. Weak-lensing shear estimates with general adaptive moments, and studies of bias by pixellation, PSF distortions, and noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Patrick; Schneider, Peter

    2017-08-01

    In weak gravitational lensing, weighted quadrupole moments of the brightness profile in galaxy images are a common way to estimate gravitational shear. We have employed general adaptive moments (GLAM ) to study causes of shear bias on a fundamental level and for a practical definition of an image ellipticity. The GLAM ellipticity has useful properties for any chosen weight profile: the weighted ellipticity is identical to that of isophotes of elliptical images, and in absence of noise and pixellation it is always an unbiased estimator of reduced shear. We show that moment-based techniques, adaptive or unweighted, are similar to a model-based approach in the sense that they can be seen as imperfect fit of an elliptical profile to the image. Due to residuals in the fit, moment-based estimates of ellipticities are prone to underfitting bias when inferred from observed images. The estimation is fundamentally limited mainly by pixellation which destroys information on the original, pre-seeing image. We give an optimised estimator for the pre-seeing GLAM ellipticity and quantify its bias for noise-free images. To deal with images where pixel noise is prominent, we consider a Bayesian approach to infer GLAM ellipticity where, similar to the noise-free case, the ellipticity posterior can be inconsistent with the true ellipticity if we do not properly account for our ignorance about fit residuals. This underfitting bias, quantified in the paper, does not vary with the overall noise level but changes with the pre-seeing brightness profile and the correlation or heterogeneity of pixel noise over the image. Furthermore, when inferring a constant ellipticity or, more relevantly, constant shear from a source sample with a distribution of intrinsic properties (sizes, centroid positions, intrinsic shapes), an additional, now noise-dependent bias arises towards low signal-to-noise if incorrect prior densities for the intrinsic properties are used. We discuss the origin of this

  3. Effect of shear rate on aggregate size and structure in the process of aggregation and at steady state

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bubáková, Petra; Pivokonský, Martin; Filip, Petr

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 235, February (2013), s. 540-549 ISSN 0032-5910 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP105/11/0247 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : aggregation * aggregate size * fractal dimension * shear rate * steady state * time evolution Subject RIV: BK - Fluid Dynamics Impact factor: 2.269, year: 2013

  4. The effects of size and period of administration of gold nanoparticles on rheological parameters of blood plasma of rats over a wide range of shear rates: In vivo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelhalim Mohamed Anwar K

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Blood viscosity appears to be independent predictor of stroke, carotid intima-media thickening, atherosclerosis and most cardiovascular diseases. In an attempt to understand the toxicity and the potential threat of GNPs therapeutic and diagnostic use, an array of rheological parameters were performed to quantify the blood plasma response to different sizes and administration periods of GNPs over a wide range of shear rates. Methods Healthy, thirty male Wistar-Kyoto rats, 8-12 weeks old (approximately 250 g body weight were divided into control group (NG: n = 10, group 1 (G1A: intraperitoneal infusion of 10 nm GNPs for 3 days, n = 5 and G1B: intraperitoneal infusion of 10 nm GNPs for 7 days, n = 5, group 2 (G2A: intraperitoneal infusion of 50 nm GNPs for 3 days, n = 5 and G2B: intraperitoneal infusion of 50 nm GNPs for 7 days, n = 5. Dose of 100 μl of GNPs was administered to the animals via intraperitoneal injection. Blood samples of nearly 1 ml were obtained from each rat. Various rheological parameters such as torque, shear stress, shear rate, viscosity, plastic velocity, yield stress, consistency index (k and flow index (n were measured in the blood plasma of rats after the intraperitoneal administration of 10 and 50 nm GNP for 3 and 7 days using Brookfield LVDV-III Programmable rheometer. Results The relationship between shear stress and shear rate for control, G1A, G1B, G2A and G2B was linearly related. The plastic viscosity and the yield stress values for G1A, G1B, G2A and G2B significantly (p Conclusions At these particular shear rates, the estimated rheological parameters are not influenced by GNPs size and shape, number of NPs, surface area and administration period of GNPs. This study demonstrates that the highly decrease in blood plasma viscosity was accompanied with the smaller 10 nm GNPs compared with the 50 nm GNPs. The decrease in blood plasma viscosity induced with 10 and 50 nm GNPs may be attributed to

  5. Combined estimation of kappa and shear-wave velocity profile of the Japanese rock reference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poggi, Valerio; Edwards, Benjamin; Fäh, Donat

    2013-04-01

    The definition of a common soil or rock reference is a key issue in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), microzonation studies, local site-response analysis and, more generally, when predicted or observed ground motion is compared for sites of different characteristics. A scaling procedure, which accounts for a common reference, is then necessary to avoid bias induced by the differences in the local geology. Nowadays methods requiring the definition of a reference condition generally prescribe the characteristic of a rock reference, calibrated using indirect estimation methods based on geology or on surface proxies. In most cases, a unique average shear-wave velocity value is prescribed (e.g. Vs30 = 800m/s as for class A of the EUROCODE8). Some attempts at defining the whole shape of a reference rock velocity profile have been described, often without a clear physical justification of how such a selection was performed. Moreover, in spite of its relevance in affecting the high-frequency part of the spectrum, the definition of the associated reference attenuation is in most cases missing or, when present, still remains quite uncertain. In this study we propose an approach that is based on the comparison between empirical anelastic amplification functions from spectral modeling of earthquakes and average S-wave velocities computed using the quarter-wavelength approach. The method is an extension of the approach originally proposed by Poggi et al. (2011) for Switzerland, and is here applied to Japan. For the analysis we make use of a selection of 36 stiff-soil and rock sites from the Japanese KiK-net network, for which a measured velocity profile is available. With respect to the previous study, however, we now analyze separately the elastic and anelastic contributions of the estimated empirical amplification. In a first step - which is consistent with the original work - only the elastic part of the amplification spectrum is considered. This procedure allows

  6. Effects of the cooling rate on the shear behavior of continuous glass fiber/impact polypropylene composites (GF-IPP)

    KAUST Repository

    Wafai, Husam

    2016-09-20

    Fiber-reinforced composites with improved dissipation of energy during impact loading have recently been developed based on a polypropylene copolymer commonly called impact polypropylene (IPP). Composites made of IPP reinforced with glass fibers (GF) are particularly attractive to the automotive industry due to their low cost and good impact resistance. In such composites, the cooling rate varies depending on processing techniques and manufacturing choices. Here, we study the effects of the cooling rate of GF-IPP composites on shear behavior, which is critical in impact applications, using [±45]s monotonic and cyclic (load/unload) tensile specimens. The specimens were manufactured under a wide range of cooling rates (3 °C/min, 22 °C/min, 500–1000 °C/min). Mainly dominated by the properties of the matrix, the global shear behavior of GF-IPP composites differed considerably with respect to the cooling rate. However, the performance of the fiber-matrix interface (chemically modified) appeared to be unaffected by the range of cooling rates used in this study. We found that the cooling rate has a minor effect on the rate of damage accumulation, while it strongly modifies the shear-activated rate-dependant viscoelastic behavior. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd

  7. Strength Estimation for Hydrate-Bearing Sediments From Direct Shear Tests of Hydrate-Bearing Sand and Silt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhichao; Dai, Sheng; Ning, Fulong; Peng, Li; Wei, Houzhen; Wei, Changfu

    2018-01-01

    Safe and economic methane gas production, as well as the replacement of methane while sequestering carbon in natural hydrate deposits, requires enhanced geomechanical understanding of the strength and volume responses of hydrate-bearing sediments during shear. This study employs a custom-made apparatus to investigate the mechanical and volumetric behaviors of carbon dioxide hydrate-bearing sediments subjected to direct shear. The results show that both peak and residual strengths increase with increased hydrate saturation and vertical stress. Hydrate contributes mainly the cohesion and dilatancy constraint to the peak strength of hydrate-bearing sediments. The postpeak strength reduction is more evident and brittle in specimens with higher hydrate saturation and under lower stress. Significant strength reduction after shear failure is expected in silty sediments with high hydrate saturation Sh ≥ 0.65. Hydrate contribution to the residual strength is mainly by increasing cohesion at low hydrate saturation and friction at high hydrate saturation. Stress state and hydrate saturation are dominating both the stiffness and the strength of hydrate-bearing sediments; thus, a wave velocity-based peak strength prediction model is proposed and validated, which allows for precise estimation of the shear strength of hydrate-bearing sediments through acoustic logging data. This method is advantageous to geomechanical simulators, particularly when the experimental strength data of natural samples are not available.

  8. Modeling the shear rate and pressure drop in a hydrodynamic cavitation reactor with experimental validation based on KI decomposition studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badve, Mandar P; Alpar, Tibor; Pandit, Aniruddha B; Gogate, Parag R; Csoka, Levente

    2015-01-01

    A mathematical model describing the shear rate and pressure variation in a complex flow field created in a hydrodynamic cavitation reactor (stator and rotor assembly) has been depicted in the present study. The design of the reactor is such that the rotor is provided with surface indentations and cavitational events are expected to occur on the surface of the rotor as well as within the indentations. The flow characteristics of the fluid have been investigated on the basis of high accuracy compact difference schemes and Navier-Stokes method. The evolution of streamlining structures during rotation, pressure field and shear rate of a Newtonian fluid flow have been numerically established. The simulation results suggest that the characteristics of shear rate and pressure area are quite different based on the magnitude of the rotation velocity of the rotor. It was observed that area of the high shear zone at the indentation leading edge shrinks with an increase in the rotational speed of the rotor, although the magnitude of the shear rate increases linearly. It is therefore concluded that higher rotational speeds of the rotor, tends to stabilize the flow, which in turn results into less cavitational activity compared to that observed around 2200-2500RPM. Experiments were carried out with initial concentration of KI as 2000ppm. Maximum of 50ppm of iodine liberation was observed at 2200RPM. Experimental as well as simulation results indicate that the maximum cavitational activity can be seen when rotation speed is around 2200-2500RPM. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Estimation of restaurant solid waste generation rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heck, H.H.; Major, I.

    2002-01-01

    Most solid waste utilities try to create a billing schedule that is proportional to solid waste generation rates. This research was trying to determine if the current billing rate structure was appropriate or if a different rate structure should be implemented. A multiple regression model with forward stepwise addition was developed which accurately predicts weekly solid waste generation rates for restaurants. The model was based on a study of daily solid waste generation at twenty-one different businesses. The weight and volume of solid waste generated was measure daily for two weeks during the winter and two weeks during the summer. Researchers followed the collection truck and measured the volume and weight of the container contents. Data was collected on the following independent variables describing each establishment; weight of waste per collection, volume per collection, container utilization factor, building area, contract haulers bill, yearly property tax, yearly solid waste tax, average number of collections per week, type of restaurant, modal number of collections per week, storage container size, waste density, number of employees, number of hours open per week, and weekly collection capacity (collections per week times storage container size). Independent variables were added to the regression equation based on their partial correlation coefficient and confidence level. The regression equations developed had correlation coefficients of 0.87 to 1.00, which was much better than the correlation coefficient (0.84) of an existing model DeGeare and Ongerth (1971) and a correlation coefficient of 0.54 based on the current solid waste disposal tax. (author)

  10. Estimating the tumble rates of galaxy halos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonson, G.F.; Tohline, J.E.

    1983-01-01

    It has previously been demonstrated that cold gas in a static spheroidal galaxy will damp to a preferred plane, in which the angular momentum vector of the gas is aligned with the symmetry axis of the potential, through dissipative processes. We show now that, if the same galaxy rigidly tumbles about a nonsymmetry axis, the preferred orientation of the gas can become a permanently and smoothly warped sheet, in which rings of gas at large radii may be fully orthogonal to those near the galaxy's core. Detailed numerical orbit calculations closely match an analytic prediction made previously for the structure of the warp. This structure depends primarily on the eccentricity, density profile, and tumble rate of the spheroid. We show that the tumble rate can now be determined for a galaxy containing a significantly warped disk. Ordinary observations used in conjunction with graphs such as those we present, yield at least firm lower limits to the tumble periods of these objects. We have applied this method to the two peculiar systems NGC 5128 and NGC 2685 and found that, if they are prolate systems supporting permanently warped gaseous disks, they must tumble with periods near 5 x 10 9 yr and 2 x 10 9 yr respectively. In a preliminary investigation, we also find that the massive, unseen halos surrounding spiral galaxies must tumble with periods longer than or on the same order as those of the elliptical galaxies

  11. Localization and Instability in Sheared Granular Materials: Role of Pore Fluids and Non-monotonic Rate Dependent Rheology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, X.; Elbanna, A. E.; Kothari, K.

    2017-12-01

    Fault zone dynamics hold the key to resolving many outstanding geophysical problems including the heat flow paradox, discrepancy between fault static and dynamic strength, and energy partitioning. Most fault zones that generate tectonic events are gouge filled and fluid saturated posing the need for formulating gouge-specific constitutive models that capture spatially heterogeneous compaction and dilation, non-monotonic rate dependence, and transition between localized and distributed deformation. In this presentation, we focus primarily on elucidating microscopic underpinnings for shear banding and stick-slip instabilities in sheared saturated granular materials and explore their implications for earthquake dynamics. We use a non-equilibrium thermodynamics model, the Shear Transformation Zone theory, to investigate the dynamics of strain localization and its connection to stability of sliding in the presence and absence of pore fluids. We also consider the possible influence of self-induced mechanical vibrations as well as the role of external acoustic vibrations as analogue for triggering by a distant event. For the dry case, our results suggest that at low and intermediate strain rates, persistent shear bands develop only in the absence of vibrations. Vibrations tend to fluidize the granular network and de-localize slip at these rates. Stick-slip is only observed for rough grains and it is confined to the shear band. At high strain rates, stick-slip disappears and the different systems exhibit similar stress-slip response. Changing the vibration intensity, duration or time of application alters the system response and may cause long-lasting rheological changes. The presence of pore fluids modifies the stick slip pattern and may lead to both loss and development of slip instability depending on the value of the confining pressure, imposed strain rate and hydraulic parameters. We analyze these observations in terms of possible transitions between rate

  12. The effect of shear flow and the density gradient on the Weibel instability growth rate in the dense plasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amininasab, S.; Sadighi-Bonabi, R.; Khodadadi Azadboni, F.

    2018-02-01

    Shear stress effect has been often neglected in calculation of the Weibel instability growth rate in laser-plasma interactions. In the present work, the role of the shear stress in the Weibel instability growth rate in the dense plasma with density gradient is explored. By increasing the density gradient, the shear stress threshold is increasing and the range of the propagation angles of growing modes is limited. Therefore, by increasing steps of the density gradient plasma near the relativistic electron beam-emitting region, the Weibel instability occurs at a higher stress flow. Calculations show that the minimum value of the stress rate threshold for linear polarization is greater than that of circular polarization. The Wiebel instability growth rate for linear polarization is 18.3 times circular polarization. One sees that for increasing stress and density gradient effects, there are smaller maximal growth rates for the range of the propagation angles of growing modes /π 2 propagation angles of growing modes /π 2 < θ m i n < π and /3 π 2 < θ m i n < 2 π in circular polarized plasma.

  13. Estimating forest conversion rates with annual forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul C. Van Deusen; Francis A. Roesch

    2009-01-01

    The rate of land-use conversion from forest to nonforest or natural forest to forest plantation is of interest for forest certification purposes and also as part of the process of assessing forest sustainability. Conversion rates can be estimated from remeasured inventory plots in general, but the emphasis here is on annual inventory data. A new estimator is proposed...

  14. On Estimating Marginal Tax Rates for U.S. States

    OpenAIRE

    Reed, W. Robert; Rogers, Cynthia L; Skidmore, Mark

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a procedure for generating state-specific time-varying estimates of marginal tax rates (MTRs). Most estimates of MTRs follow a procedure developed by Koester and Kormendi (1989) (K&K). Unfortunately, the time-invariant nature of the K&K estimates precludes their use as explanatory variables in panel data studies with fixed effects. Furthermore, the associated MTR estimates are not explicitly linked to statutory tax parameters. Our approach addresses both shortcomings. Usin...

  15. Estimating market probabilities of future interest rate changes

    OpenAIRE

    Hlušek, Martin

    2002-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to estimate the market consensus forecast of future monetary policy development and to quantify the priced-in probability of interest rate changes for different future time horizons. The proposed model uses the current spot money market yield curve and available money market derivative instruments (forward rate agreements, FRAs) and estimates the market probability of interest rate changes up to a 12-month horizon.

  16. Use of Hedonic Prices to Estimate Capitalization Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Gaetano Lisi

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a model of income capitalization is developed where hedonic prices play a key role in estimating the going-in capitalization rate. Precisely, the hedonic functions for rental and selling prices are introduced into a basic model of income capitalization. From the modified model, it is possible to derive a direct relationship between hedonic prices and capitalization rate. An advantage of the proposed approach is that estimation of the capitalization rate can be made without cons...

  17. Estimates of wave decay rates in the presence of turbulent currents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thais, L. [Universite des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, URA-CNRS 1441, Villenauve d' Ascq (France). Lab. de Mecanique; Chapalain, G. [Universite des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, URA-CNRS 8577, Villenauve d' Ascq (France). Sedimentologie et Geodynamique; Klopman, G. [Albatros Flow Research, Vollenhove (Netherlands); Simons, R.R. [University College, London (United Kingdom). Civil and Environmental Engineering; Thomas, G.P. [University College, Cork (Ireland). Dept. of Mathematical Physics

    2001-06-01

    A full-depth numerical model solving the free surface flow induced by linear water waves propagating with collinear vertically sheared turbulent currents is presented. The model is used to estimate the wave amplitude decay rate in combined wave current flows. The decay rates are compared with data collected in wave flumes by Kemp and Simons [J Fluid Mech, 116 (1982) 227; 130 (1983) 73] and Mathisen and Madsen [J Geophys Res, 101 (C7) (1996) 16,533]. We confirm the main experimental finding of Kemp and Simons that waves propagating downstream are less damped, and waves propagating upstream significantly more damped than waves on fluid at rest. A satisfactory quantitative agreement is found for the decay rates of waves propagating upstream, whereas not more than a qualitative agreement has been observed for waves propagating downstream. Finally, some wave decay rates in the presence of favourable and adverse currents are provided in typical field conditions. (Author)

  18. Three-Axis Attitude Estimation Using Rate-Integrating Gyroscopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crassidis, John L.; Markley, F. Landis

    2016-01-01

    Traditionally, attitude estimation has been performed using a combination of external attitude sensors and internal three-axis gyroscopes. There are many studies of three-axis attitude estimation using gyros that read angular rates. Rate-integrating gyros measure integrated rates or angular displacements, but three-axis attitude estimation using these types of gyros has not been as fully investigated. This paper derives a Kalman filtering framework for attitude estimation using attitude sensors coupled with rate- integrating gyroscopes. In order to account for correlations introduced by using these gyros, the state vector must be augmented, compared with filters using traditional gyros that read angular rates. Two filters are derived in this paper. The first uses an augmented state-vector form that estimates attitude, gyro biases, and gyro angular displacements. The second ignores correlations, leading to a filter that estimates attitude and gyro biases only. Simulation comparisons are shown for both filters. The work presented in this paper focuses only on attitude estimation using rate-integrating gyros, but it can easily be extended to other applications such as inertial navigation, which estimates attitude and position.

  19. Effect of nitrogen concentration and temperature on the critical resolved shear stress and strain rate sensitivity of vanadium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehbein, D.K.

    1980-08-01

    The critical resolved shear stress and strain rate sensitivity were measured over the temperature range from 77 to 400 0 K for vanadium-nitrogen alloys containing from 0.0004 to 0.184 atom percent nitrogen. These properties were found to be strongly dependent on both the nitrogen concentration and temperature. The following observations were seen in this investigation: the overall behavior of the alloys for the temperature and concentration range studied follows a form similar to that predicted; the concentration dependence of the critical resolved shear stress after subtracting the hardening due to the pure vanadium lattice obeys Labusch's c/sup 2/3/ relationship above 200 0 K and Fleischer's c/sup 1/2/ relationship below 200 0 K; the theoretical predictions of Fleischer's model for the temperature dependence of the critical resolved shear stress are in marked disagreement with the behavior found; and the strain rate sensitivity, par. delta tau/par. deltaln γ, exhibits a peak at approximately 100 0 K that decreases in height as the nitrogen concentration increases. A similar peak has been observed in niobium by other investigators but the effect of concentration on the peak height is quite different

  20. Prolonged decay of molecular rate estimates for metazoan mitochondrial DNA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martyna Molak

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary timescales can be estimated from genetic data using the molecular clock, often calibrated by fossil or geological evidence. However, estimates of molecular rates in mitochondrial DNA appear to scale negatively with the age of the clock calibration. Although such a pattern has been observed in a limited range of data sets, it has not been studied on a large scale in metazoans. In addition, there is uncertainty over the temporal extent of the time-dependent pattern in rate estimates. Here we present a meta-analysis of 239 rate estimates from metazoans, representing a range of timescales and taxonomic groups. We found evidence of time-dependent rates in both coding and non-coding mitochondrial markers, in every group of animals that we studied. The negative relationship between the estimated rate and time persisted across a much wider range of calibration times than previously suggested. This indicates that, over long time frames, purifying selection gives way to mutational saturation as the main driver of time-dependent biases in rate estimates. The results of our study stress the importance of accounting for time-dependent biases in estimating mitochondrial rates regardless of the timescale over which they are inferred.

  1. Estimating monotonic rates from biological data using local linear regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olito, Colin; White, Craig R; Marshall, Dustin J; Barneche, Diego R

    2017-03-01

    Accessing many fundamental questions in biology begins with empirical estimation of simple monotonic rates of underlying biological processes. Across a variety of disciplines, ranging from physiology to biogeochemistry, these rates are routinely estimated from non-linear and noisy time series data using linear regression and ad hoc manual truncation of non-linearities. Here, we introduce the R package LoLinR, a flexible toolkit to implement local linear regression techniques to objectively and reproducibly estimate monotonic biological rates from non-linear time series data, and demonstrate possible applications using metabolic rate data. LoLinR provides methods to easily and reliably estimate monotonic rates from time series data in a way that is statistically robust, facilitates reproducible research and is applicable to a wide variety of research disciplines in the biological sciences. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  2. Introduction to State Estimation of High-Rate System Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jonathan; Laflamme, Simon; Dodson, Jacob; Joyce, Bryan

    2018-01-13

    Engineering systems experiencing high-rate dynamic events, including airbags, debris detection, and active blast protection systems, could benefit from real-time observability for enhanced performance. However, the task of high-rate state estimation is challenging, in particular for real-time applications where the rate of the observer's convergence needs to be in the microsecond range. This paper identifies the challenges of state estimation of high-rate systems and discusses the fundamental characteristics of high-rate systems. A survey of applications and methods for estimators that have the potential to produce accurate estimations for a complex system experiencing highly dynamic events is presented. It is argued that adaptive observers are important to this research. In particular, adaptive data-driven observers are advantageous due to their adaptability and lack of dependence on the system model.

  3. Study on Rayleigh Wave Inversion for Estimating Shear-wave Velocity Profile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.A. Sanny

    2003-05-01

    Full Text Available Rayleigh wave or ground roll is a noise in seismic body waves. However, how to use this noise for soil characterization is very interesting since Rayleigh wave phase velocity is a function of compression-wave velocity, shear-wave velocity, density and layer thickness. In layered-medium Rayleigh wave velocity also depends on wavelength or frequency, and this phenomenon is called dispersion. Inversion procedure to get shear-wave velocity profile needs a priori information about the solution of the problem to limit the unknown parameters. The Lagrange multiplier method was used to solve the constrained optimization problems or well known as a smoothing parameter in inversion problems. The advantage of our inversion procedure is that it can guarantee the convergence of solution even though the field data is incomplete, insufficient, and inconsistent. The addition of smoothing parameter can reduce the time to converge. Beside numerical stability, the statistical stability is also involved in inversion procedure. In field experiment we extracted ground roll data from seismic refraction record. The dispersion curves had been constructed by applying f-k analysis and f-k dip filtering. The dispersion curves show the dependence of Rayleigh wave phase velocities in layered media to frequency. The synthetic models also demonstrate the stability and the speed of inversion procedure.

  4. Estimating the encounter rate variance in distance sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fewster, R.M.; Buckland, S.T.; Burnham, K.P.; Borchers, D.L.; Jupp, P.E.; Laake, J.L.; Thomas, L.

    2009-01-01

    The dominant source of variance in line transect sampling is usually the encounter rate variance. Systematic survey designs are often used to reduce the true variability among different realizations of the design, but estimating the variance is difficult and estimators typically approximate the variance by treating the design as a simple random sample of lines. We explore the properties of different encounter rate variance estimators under random and systematic designs. We show that a design-based variance estimator improves upon the model-based estimator of Buckland et al. (2001, Introduction to Distance Sampling. Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 79) when transects are positioned at random. However, if populations exhibit strong spatial trends, both estimators can have substantial positive bias under systematic designs. We show that poststratification is effective in reducing this bias. ?? 2008, The International Biometric Society.

  5. The Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Romania

    OpenAIRE

    Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu; Vasile Dedu

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Romania, respectively the real exchange rate consistent with the macroeconomic balance, which is achieved when the economy is operating at full employment and low inflation (internal balance) and has a current account that is sustainable (external balance). This equilibrium real exchange rate is very important for an economy because deviations of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium value can affect the competitiveness ...

  6. Estimating the exceedance probability of rain rate by logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Long S.; Kedem, Benjamin

    1990-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that the fraction of an area with rain intensity above a fixed threshold is highly correlated with the area-averaged rain rate. To estimate the fractional rainy area, a logistic regression model, which estimates the conditional probability that rain rate over an area exceeds a fixed threshold given the values of related covariates, is developed. The problem of dependency in the data in the estimation procedure is bypassed by the method of partial likelihood. Analyses of simulated scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and observed electrically scanning microwave radiometer data during the Global Atlantic Tropical Experiment period show that the use of logistic regression in pixel classification is superior to multiple regression in predicting whether rain rate at each pixel exceeds a given threshold, even in the presence of noisy data. The potential of the logistic regression technique in satellite rain rate estimation is discussed.

  7. Equations to Estimate Creatinine Excretion Rate : The CKD Epidemiology Collaboration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ix, Joachim H.; Wassel, Christina L.; Stevens, Lesley A.; Beck, Gerald J.; Froissart, Marc; Navis, Gerjan; Rodby, Roger; Torres, Vicente E.; Zhang, Yaping (Lucy); Greene, Tom; Levey, Andrew S.

    Background and objectives Creatinine excretion rate (CER) indicates timed urine collection accuracy. Although equations to estimate CER exist, their bias and precision are untested and none simultaneously include age, sex, race, and weight. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Participants

  8. On Improving Convergence Rates for Nonnegative Kernel Density Estimators

    OpenAIRE

    Terrell, George R.; Scott, David W.

    1980-01-01

    To improve the rate of decrease of integrated mean square error for nonparametric kernel density estimators beyond $0(n^{-\\frac{4}{5}}),$ we must relax the constraint that the density estimate be a bonafide density function, that is, be nonnegative and integrate to one. All current methods for kernel (and orthogonal series) estimators relax the nonnegativity constraint. In this paper we show how to achieve similar improvement by relaxing the integral constraint only. This is important in appl...

  9. Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-09-01

    Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

  10. Estimation of shear velocity contrast for dipping or anisotropic medium from transmitted Ps amplitude variation with ray-parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Prakash

    2015-12-01

    Amplitude versus offset analysis of P to P reflection is often used in exploration seismology for hydrocarbon exploration. In the present work, the feasibility to estimate crustal velocity structure from transmitted P to S wave amplitude variation with ray-parameter has been investigated separately for dipping layer and anisotropy medium. First, for horizontal and isotropic medium, the approximation of P-to-s conversion is used that is expressed as a linear form in terms of slowness. Next, the intercept of the linear regression has been used to estimate the shear wave velocity contrast (δβ) across an interface. The formulation holds good for isotropic and horizontal layer medium. Application of such formula to anisotropic medium or dipping layer data may lead to erroneous estimation of δβ. In order to overcome this problem, a method has been proposed to compensate the SV-amplitude using shifted version of SH-amplitude, and subsequently transforming SV amplitudes equivalent to that from isotropic or horizontal layer medium as the case may be. Once this transformation has been done, δβ can be estimated using isotropic horizontal layer formula. The shifts required in SH for the compensation are π/2 and π/4 for dipping layer and anisotropic medium, respectively. The effectiveness of the approach has been reported using various synthetic data sets. The methodology is also tested on real data from HI-CLIMB network in Himalaya, where the presence of dipping Moho has already been reported. The result reveals that the average shear wave velocity contrast across the Moho is larger towards the Indian side compared to the higher Himalayan and Tibetan regions.

  11. Wall Shear Stress Estimation of Thoracic Aortic Aneurysm Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Febina

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available An attempt has been made to evaluate the effects of wall shear stress (WSS on thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD. Aneurysm is an excessive localized swelling of the arterial wall due to many physiological factors and it may rupture causing shock or sudden death. The existing imaging modalities such as MRI and CT assist in the visualization of anomalies in internal organs. However, the expected dynamic behaviour of arterial bulge under stressed condition can only be effectively evaluated through mathematical modelling. In this work, a 3D aneurysm model is reconstructed from the CT scan slices and eventually the model is imported to Star CCM+ (Siemens, USA for intensive CFD analysis. The domain is discretized using polyhedral mesh with prism layers to capture the weakening boundary more accurately. When there is flow reversal in TAA as seen in the velocity vector plot, there is a chance of cell damage causing clots. This is because of the shear created in the system due to the flow pattern. It is observed from the proposed mathematical modelling that the deteriorating WSS is an indicator for possible rupture and its value oscillates over a cardiac cycle as well as over different stress conditions. In this model, the vortex formation pattern and flow reversals are also captured. The non-Newtonian model, including a pulsatile flow instead of a steady average flow, does not overpredict the WSS (15.29 Pa compared to 16 Pa for the Newtonian model. Although in a cycle the flow behaviour is laminar-turbulent-laminar (LTL, utilizing the non-Newtonian model along with LTL model also overpredicted the WSS with a value of 20.1 Pa. The numerical study presented here provides good insight of TAA using a systematic approach to numerical modelling and analysis.

  12. Monodimensional estimation of maximum Reynolds shear stress in the downstream flow field of bileaflet valves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigioni, Mauro; Daniele, Carla; D'Avenio, Giuseppe; Barbaro, Vincenzo

    2002-05-01

    Turbulent flow generated by prosthetic devices at the bloodstream level may cause mechanical stress on blood particles. Measurement of the Reynolds stress tensor and/or some of its components is a mandatory step to evaluate the mechanical load on blood components exerted by fluid stresses, as well as possible consequent blood damage (hemolysis or platelet activation). Because of the three-dimensional nature of turbulence, in general, a three-component anemometer should be used to measure all components of the Reynolds stress tensor, but this is difficult, especially in vivo. The present study aimed to derive the maximum Reynolds shear stress (RSS) in three commercially available prosthetic heart valves (PHVs) of wide diffusion, starting with monodimensional data provided in vivo by echo Doppler. Accurate measurement of PHV flow field was made using laser Doppler anemometry; this provided the principal turbulence quantities (mean velocity, root-mean-square value of velocity fluctuations, average value of cross-product of velocity fluctuations in orthogonal directions) needed to quantify the maximum turbulence-related shear stress. The recorded data enabled determination of the relationship, the Reynolds stresses ratio (RSR) between maximum RSS and Reynolds normal stress in the main flow direction. The RSR was found to be dependent upon the local structure of the flow field. The reported RSR profiles, which permit a simple calculation of maximum RSS, may prove valuable during the post-implantation phase, when an assessment of valve function is made echocardiographically. Hence, the risk of damage to blood constituents associated with bileaflet valve implantation may be accurately quantified in vivo.

  13. Multiresolution Motion Estimation for Low-Rate Video Frame Interpolation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hezerul Abdul Karim

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Interpolation of video frames with the purpose of increasing the frame rate requires the estimation of motion in the image so as to interpolate pixels along the path of the objects. In this paper, the specific challenges of low-rate video frame interpolation are illustrated by choosing one well-performing algorithm for high-frame-rate interpolation (Castango 1996 and applying it to low frame rates. The degradation of performance is illustrated by comparing the original algorithm, the algorithm adapted to low frame rate, and simple averaging. To overcome the particular challenges of low-frame-rate interpolation, two algorithms based on multiresolution motion estimation are developed and compared on objective and subjective basis and shown to provide an elegant solution to the specific challenges of low-frame-rate video interpolation.

  14. Effect of survey design and catch rate estimation on total catch estimates in Chinook salmon fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael C.; Schill, Daniel J.

    2012-01-01

    Roving–roving and roving–access creel surveys are the primary techniques used to obtain information on harvest of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in Idaho sport fisheries. Once interviews are conducted using roving–roving or roving–access survey designs, mean catch rate can be estimated with the ratio-of-means (ROM) estimator, the mean-of-ratios (MOR) estimator, or the MOR estimator with exclusion of short-duration (≤0.5 h) trips. Our objective was to examine the relative bias and precision of total catch estimates obtained from use of the two survey designs and three catch rate estimators for Idaho Chinook salmon fisheries. Information on angling populations was obtained by direct visual observation of portions of Chinook salmon fisheries in three Idaho river systems over an 18-d period. Based on data from the angling populations, Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate the properties of the catch rate estimators and survey designs. Among the three estimators, the ROM estimator provided the most accurate and precise estimates of mean catch rate and total catch for both roving–roving and roving–access surveys. On average, the root mean square error of simulated total catch estimates was 1.42 times greater and relative bias was 160.13 times greater for roving–roving surveys than for roving–access surveys. Length-of-stay bias and nonstationary catch rates in roving–roving surveys both appeared to affect catch rate and total catch estimates. Our results suggest that use of the ROM estimator in combination with an estimate of angler effort provided the least biased and most precise estimates of total catch for both survey designs. However, roving–access surveys were more accurate than roving–roving surveys for Chinook salmon fisheries in Idaho.

  15. A new approach for estimation of component failure rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan Cizelj, R.; Kljenak, I.

    1999-01-01

    In the paper, a formal method for component failure rate estimation is described, which is proposed to be used for components, for which no specific numerical data necessary for probabilistic estimation exist. The framework of the method is the Bayesian updating procedure. A prior distribution is selected from a generic database, whereas the likelihood distribution is assessed from specific data on component state using principles of fuzzy logic theory. With the proposed method the component failure rate estimation is based on a much larger quantity of information compared to presently used classical methods.(author)

  16. Estimating stutter rates for Y-STR alleles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikkel Meyer; Olofsson, Jill Katharina; Mogensen, Helle Smidt

    2011-01-01

    Stutter peaks are artefacts that arise during PCR amplification of short tandem repeats. Stutter peaks are especially important in forensic case work with DNA mixtures. The aim of the study was primarily to estimate the stutter rates of the AmpFlSTR Yfiler kit. We found that the stutter rates...

  17. Estimated Interest Rate Rules: Do they Determine Determinacy Properties?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    I demonstrate that econometric estimations of nominal interest rate rules may tell little, if anything, about an economy's determinacy properties. In particular, correct inference about the interest-rate response to inflation provides no information about determinacy. Instead, it could reveal...

  18. Improved air ventilation rate estimation based on a statistical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brabec, M.; Jilek, K.

    2004-01-01

    A new approach to air ventilation rate estimation from CO measurement data is presented. The approach is based on a state-space dynamic statistical model, allowing for quick and efficient estimation. Underlying computations are based on Kalman filtering, whose practical software implementation is rather easy. The key property is the flexibility of the model, allowing various artificial regimens of CO level manipulation to be treated. The model is semi-parametric in nature and can efficiently handle time-varying ventilation rate. This is a major advantage, compared to some of the methods which are currently in practical use. After a formal introduction of the statistical model, its performance is demonstrated on real data from routine measurements. It is shown how the approach can be utilized in a more complex situation of major practical relevance, when time-varying air ventilation rate and radon entry rate are to be estimated simultaneously from concurrent radon and CO measurements

  19. Amorphization and Frictional Processes in Smectite-Quartz Gouge Mixtures Sheared from Sub-seismic to Seismic Slip Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aretusini, S.; Mittempergher, S.; Spagnuolo, E.; Di Toro, G.; Gualtieri, A.; Plümper, O.

    2015-12-01

    Slipping zones in shallow sections of megathrusts and large landslides are often made of smectite and quartz gouge mixtures. Experiments aimed at investigating the frictional processes operating at high slip rates (>1 m/s) may unravel the mechanics of these natural phenomena. Here we present a new dataset obtained with two rotary shear apparatus (ROSA, Padua University; SHIVA, INGV-Rome). Experiments were performed at room humidity and temperature on four mixtures of smectite (Ca-Montmorillonite) and quartz with 68, 50, 25, 0 wt% of smectite. The gouges were slid for 3 m at normal stress of 5 MPa and slip rate V from 300 µm/s to 1.5 m/s. Temperature during the experiments was monitored with four thermocouples and modeled with COMSOL Multiphysics. In smectite-rich mixtures, the friction coefficient µ evolved with slip according to three slip rate regimes: in regime 1 (V0.3 m/s) µ had strong slip-weakening behavior. Instead, in quartz-rich mixtures the gouge had a monotonic slip-weakening behavior, independently of V. Temperature modelling showed that the fraction of work rate converted into heat decreased with increasing smectite content and slip rate. Quantitative X-ray powder diffraction (Rietveld method) indicates that the production of amorphous material from smectite breakdown increased with frictional work but was independent of work rate. Scanning Electron Microscopy investigation evidenced strain localization and presence of dehydrated clays for V≥0.3 m/s; instead, for V<0.3 m/s, strain was distributed and the gouge layer pervasively foliated. In conclusion, amorphization of the sheared gouges was not responsible of the measured frictional weakening. Instead, slip-weakening was concomitant to strain localization and possible vaporization of water adsorbed on smectite grain surfaces.

  20. Improving Accuracy of Influenza-Associated Hospitalization Rate Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Carrie; Kirley, Pam Daily; Aragon, Deborah; Meek, James; Farley, Monica M.; Ryan, Patricia; Collins, Jim; Lynfield, Ruth; Baumbach, Joan; Zansky, Shelley; Bennett, Nancy M.; Fowler, Brian; Thomas, Ann; Lindegren, Mary L.; Atkinson, Annette; Finelli, Lyn; Chaves, Sandra S.

    2015-01-01

    Diagnostic test sensitivity affects rate estimates for laboratory-confirmed influenza–associated hospitalizations. We used data from FluSurv-NET, a national population-based surveillance system for laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations, to capture diagnostic test type by patient age and influenza season. We calculated observed rates by age group and adjusted rates by test sensitivity. Test sensitivity was lowest in adults >65 years of age. For all ages, reverse transcription PCR was the most sensitive test, and use increased from 65 years. After 2009, hospitalization rates adjusted by test sensitivity were ≈15% higher for children 65 years of age. Test sensitivity adjustments improve the accuracy of hospitalization rate estimates. PMID:26292017

  1. State estimation for networked control systems using fixed data rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qing-Quan; Jin, Fang

    2017-07-01

    This paper investigates state estimation for linear time-invariant systems where sensors and controllers are geographically separated and connected via a bandwidth-limited and errorless communication channel with the fixed data rate. All plant states are quantised, coded and converted together into a codeword in our quantisation and coding scheme. We present necessary and sufficient conditions on the fixed data rate for observability of such systems, and further develop the data-rate theorem. It is shown in our results that there exists a quantisation and coding scheme to ensure observability of the system if the fixed data rate is larger than the lower bound given, which is less conservative than the one in the literature. Furthermore, we also examine the role that the disturbances have on the state estimation problem in the case with data-rate limitations. Illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  2. Estimating the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volumes

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Kai-Li; Barrett, Christopher B.

    2007-01-01

    This paper takes a new empirical look at the long-standing question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan's exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral-level, monthly data and an innovative multivariate GARCH-M estimator with corrections for leptokurtic errors. This estimator allows for the possibility that traders' forward-looking contracting behavior might condition the way in which exchange r...

  3. Structures, microfabrics, fractal analysis and temperature-pressure estimation of the Mesozoic Xingcheng-Taili ductile shear zone in the North China craton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Chenyue; Neubauer, Franz; Liu, Yongjiang; Jin, Wei; Zeng, Zuoxun; Bernroider, Manfred; Li, Weimin; Wen, Quanbo; Han, Guoqing; Zhao, Yingli

    2014-05-01

    orientation of quartz determined by electron back scatter diffraction (EBSD) suggest sinistral strike-slip displacement within a temperature at about 400 to 500° C. Quartz mainly shows low-temperature fabrics with dominant {0001}-slip system. As the deformed rocks show obvious deformation overprint, we have estimated flow stresses from dynamically recrystallized grain sizes of quartz separately. But coincident fractal analysis showed that the boundaries of recrystallized grains had statistically self similarities with the numbers of fractal dimension from 1.153 to 1.196 with the range of deformation temperatures from 500 to 600° C, which is corresponding to upper greenschist to lower amphibolite facies conditions. Together with published flow laws to estimated deformation rates between the region of 10-11 - 10-13 S-1depending on the temperature 500 ° C, and the paleo-stress was calculated with grain size of recrystallized quartz to be at 5.0 to 32.3 MPa. Even though the deformation history and kinematics are different, progressive microstructures and texture analysis indicate an overprint by the low-temperature deformation (D3). Typical regional-dynamic metamorphic conditions ere deduced by mineral pair hornblende-plagioclase and phengite barometry identified within the ductile shear zone. The hornblende-plagioclase pair of porphyritic granitic gneiss gives metamorphic conditions of T =450-500 ° C and p=0.39 GPa, which indicate a metamorphic grade of lower-amphibolite facies conditions and a depth of around 13 km estimated following a normal lithostatic pressure. All of the structural characteristics indicate that the Xingcheng-Taili ductile shear zone represents a mainly ENE-striking sinistral ductile strike-slip zone, which formed after intrusion of the Upper Jurassic biotite adamellite and transformed and superimposed previous deformation structures. This deformation event might have occurred in Early Cretaceous times and was related to the lithospheric thinning and

  4. Automating proliferation rate estimation from Ki-67 histology images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Lahham, Heba Z.; Alomari, Raja S.; Hiary, Hazem; Chaudhary, Vipin

    2012-03-01

    Breast cancer is the second cause of women death and the most diagnosed female cancer in the US. Proliferation rate estimation (PRE) is one of the prognostic indicators that guide the treatment protocols and it is clinically performed from Ki-67 histopathology images. Automating PRE substantially increases the efficiency of the pathologists. Moreover, presenting a deterministic and reproducible proliferation rate value is crucial to reduce inter-observer variability. To that end, we propose a fully automated CAD system for PRE from the Ki-67 histopathology images. This CAD system is based on a model of three steps: image pre-processing, image clustering, and nuclei segmentation and counting that are finally followed by PRE. The first step is based on customized color modification and color-space transformation. Then, image pixels are clustered by K-Means depending on the features extracted from the images derived from the first step. Finally, nuclei are segmented and counted using global thresholding, mathematical morphology and connected component analysis. Our experimental results on fifty Ki-67-stained histopathology images show a significant agreement between our CAD's automated PRE and the gold standard's one, where the latter is an average between two observers' estimates. The Paired T-Test, for the automated and manual estimates, shows ρ = 0.86, 0.45, 0.8 for the brown nuclei count, blue nuclei count, and proliferation rate, respectively. Thus, our proposed CAD system is as reliable as the pathologist estimating the proliferation rate. Yet, its estimate is reproducible.

  5. Updated Magmatic Flux Rate Estimates for the Hawaii Plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessel, P.

    2013-12-01

    Several studies have estimated the magmatic flux rate along the Hawaiian-Emperor Chain using a variety of methods and arriving at different results. These flux rate estimates have weaknesses because of incomplete data sets and different modeling assumptions, especially for the youngest portion of the chain (little or no quantification of error estimates for the inferred melt flux, making an assessment problematic. Here we re-evaluate the melt flux for the Hawaii plume with the latest gridded data sets (SRTM30+ and FAA 21.1) using several methods, including the optimal robust separator (ORS) and directional median filtering techniques (DiM). We also compute realistic confidence limits on the results. In particular, the DiM technique was specifically developed to aid in the estimation of surface loads that are superimposed on wider bathymetric swells and it provides error estimates on the optimal residuals. Confidence bounds are assigned separately for the estimated surface load (obtained from the ORS regional/residual separation techniques) and the inferred subsurface volume (from gravity-constrained isostasy and plate flexure optimizations). These new and robust estimates will allow us to assess which secondary features in the resulting melt flux curve are significant and should be incorporated when correlating melt flux variations with other geophysical and geochemical observations.

  6. Estimating average glandular dose by measuring glandular rate in mammograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goto, Sachiko; Azuma, Yoshiharu; Sumimoto, Tetsuhiro; Eiho, Shigeru

    2003-01-01

    The glandular rate of the breast was objectively measured in order to calculate individual patient exposure dose (average glandular dose) in mammography. By employing image processing techniques and breast-equivalent phantoms with various glandular rate values, a conversion curve for pixel value to glandular rate can be determined by a neural network. Accordingly, the pixel values in clinical mammograms can be converted to the glandular rate value for each pixel. The individual average glandular dose can therefore be calculated using the individual glandular rates on the basis of the dosimetry method employed for quality control in mammography. In the present study, a data set of 100 craniocaudal mammograms from 50 patients was used to evaluate our method. The average glandular rate and average glandular dose of the data set were 41.2% and 1.79 mGy, respectively. The error in calculating the individual glandular rate can be estimated to be less than ±3%. When the calculation error of the glandular rate is taken into consideration, the error in the individual average glandular dose can be estimated to be 13% or less. We feel that our method for determining the glandular rate from mammograms is useful for minimizing subjectivity in the evaluation of patient breast composition. (author)

  7. Distributions of component failure rates estimated from LER data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1985-01-01

    Past analyses of Licensee Event Report (LER) data have noted that component failure rates vary from plant to plant, and have estimated the distributions by two-parameter gamma distributions. In this study, a more complicated distributional form is considered, a mixture of gammas. This could arise if the plants' failure rates cluster into distinct groups. The method was applied to selected published LER data for diesel generators, pumps, valves, and instrumentation and control assemblies. The improved fits from using a mixture rather than a single gamma distribution were minimal, and not statistically significant. There seem to be two possibilities: either explanatory variables affect the failure rates only in a gradual way, not a qualitative way; or, for estimating individual component failure rates, the published LER data have been analyzed to the limit of resolution. 9 refs

  8. Distributions of component failure rates, estimated from LER data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1985-01-01

    Past analyses of Licensee Event Report (LER) data have noted that component failure rates vary from plant to plant, and have estimated the distributions by two-parameter γ distributions. In this study, a more complicated distributional form is considered, a mixture of γs. This could arise if the plants' failure rates cluster into distinct groups. The method was applied to selected published LER data for diesel generators, pumps, valves, and instrumentation and control assemblies. The improved fits from using a mixture rather than a single γ distribution were minimal, and not statistically significant. There seem to be two possibilities: either explanatory variables affect the failure rates only in a gradual way, not a qualitative way; or, for estimating individual component failure rates, the published LER data have been analyzed to the limit of resolution

  9. Influence of heat and shear induced protein aggregation on the in vitro digestion rate of whey proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Tanoj K; Øiseth, Sofia K; Lundin, Leif; Day, Li

    2014-11-01

    Protein intake is essential for growth and repair of body cells, the normal functioning of muscles, and health related immune functions. Most food proteins are consumed after undergoing various degrees of processing. Changes in protein structure and assembly as a result of processing impact the digestibility of proteins. Research in understanding to what extent the protein structure impacts the rate of proteolysis under human physiological conditions has gained considerable interest. In this work, four whey protein gels were prepared using heat processing at two different pH values, 6.8 and 4.6, with and without applied shear. The gels showed different protein network microstructures due to heat induced unfolding (at pH 6.8) or lack of unfolding, thus resulting in fine stranded protein networks. When shear was applied during heating, particulate protein networks were formed. The differences in the gel microstructures resulted in considerable differences in their rheological properties. An in vitro gastric and intestinal model was used to investigate the resulting effects of these different gel structures on whey protein digestion. In addition, the rate of digestion was monitored by taking samples at various time points throughout the in vitro digestion process. The peptides in the digesta were profiled using SDS-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis, reversed-phase-HPLC and LC-MS. Under simulated gastric conditions, whey proteins in structured gels were hydrolysed faster than native proteins in solution. The rate of peptides released during in vitro digestion differed depending on the structure of the gels and extent of protein aggregation. The outcomes of this work highlighted that changes in the network structure of the protein can influence the rate and pattern of its proteolysis under gastrointestinal conditions. Such knowledge could assist the food industry in designing novel food formulations to control the digestion kinetics and the release of biologically

  10. Understanding estimated worker absenteeism rates during an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanner, Meridith H; Links, Jonathan M; Meltzer, Martin I; Scheulen, James J; Kelen, Gabor D

    2011-01-01

    Published employee absenteeism estimates during an influenza pandemic range from 10 to 40 percent. The purpose of this study was to estimate daily employee absenteeism through the duration of an influenza pandemic and to determine the relative impact of key variables used to derive the estimates. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's FluWorkLoss program, the authors estimated the number of absent employees on any given day over the course of a simulated 8-week pandemic wave by using varying attack rates. Employee data from a university with a large academic health system were used. Sensitivity of the program outputs to variation in predictor (inputs) values was assessed. Finally, the authors examined and documented the algorithmic sequence of the program. Using a 35 percent attack rate, a total of 47,270 workdays (or 3.4 percent of all available workdays) would be lost over the course of an 8-week pandemic among a population of 35,026 employees. The highest (peak) daily absenteeism estimate was 5.8 percent (minimum 4.8 percent; maximum 7.4 percent). Sensitivity analysis revealed that varying days missed for nonhospitalized illness had the greatest potential effect on peak absence rate (3.1 to 17.2 percent). Peak absence with 15 and 25 percent attack rates were 2.5 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. The impact of an influenza pandemic on employee availability may be less than originally thought, even with a high attack rate. These data are generalizable and are not specific to institutions of higher education or medical centers. Thus, these findings provide realistic and useful estimates for influenza pandemic planning for most organizations.

  11. Estimation of flow rates through intergranular stress corrosion cracks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collier, R.P.; Norris, D.M.

    1984-01-01

    Experimental studies of critical two-phase water flow, through simulated and actual intergranular stress corrosion cracks, were performed to obtain data to evaluate a leak flow rate model and investigate acoustic transducer effectiveness in detecting and sizing leaks. The experimental program included a parametric study of the effects of crack geometry, fluid stagnation pressure and temperature, and crack surface roughness on leak flow rate. In addition, leak detection, location, and leak size estimation capabilities of several different acoustic transducers were evaluated as functions of leak rate and transducer position. This paper presents flow rate data for several different cracks and fluid conditions. It also presents the minimum flow rate detected with the acoustic sensors and a relationship between acoustic signal strength and leak flow rate

  12. Bayes estimation of the general hazard rate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarhan, A.

    1999-01-01

    In reliability theory and life testing models, the life time distributions are often specified by choosing a relevant hazard rate function. Here a general hazard rate function h(t)=a+bt c-1 , where c, a, b are constants greater than zero, is considered. The parameter c is assumed to be known. The Bayes estimators of (a,b) based on the data of type II/item-censored testing without replacement are obtained. A large simulation study using Monte Carlo Method is done to compare the performance of Bayes with regression estimators of (a,b). The criterion for comparison is made based on the Bayes risk associated with the respective estimator. Also, the influence of the number of failed items on the accuracy of the estimators (Bayes and regression) is investigated. Estimations for the parameters (a,b) of the linearly increasing hazard rate model h(t)=a+bt, where a, b are greater than zero, can be obtained as the special case, letting c=2

  13. Lidar method to estimate emission rates from extended sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currently, point measurements, often combined with models, are the primary means by which atmospheric emission rates are estimated from extended sources. However, these methods often fall short in their spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy. In recent years, lidar has emerged as a suitable to...

  14. Estimates of outcrossing rates in Moringa oleifera using Amplified ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mating system in plant populations is influenced by genetic and environmental factors. Proper estimates of the outcrosing rates are often required for planning breeding programmes, conservation and management of tropical trees. However, although Moringa oleifera is adapted to a mixed mating system, the proportion ...

  15. Cross sectional efficient estimation of stochastic volatility short rate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danilov, Dmitri; Mandal, Pranab K.

    2001-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimation of term structure of interest rates. Filtering theory approach is very natural here with the underlying setup being non-linear and non-Gaussian. Earlier works make use of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). However, as indicated by de Jong (2000), the EKF in this

  16. Cross sectional efficient estimation of stochastic volatility short rate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danilov, Dmitri; Mandal, Pranab K.

    2002-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimation of term structure of interest rates. Filtering theory approach is very natural here with the underlying setup being non-linear and non-Gaussian. Earlier works make use of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). However, the EKF in this situation leads to inconsistent

  17. Estimating Ads’ Click through Rate with Recurrent Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Qiao-Hong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of the Internet, online advertising spreads across every corner of the world, the ads' click through rate (CTR estimation is an important method to improve the online advertising revenue. Compared with the linear model, the nonlinear models can study much more complex relationships between a large number of nonlinear characteristics, so as to improve the accuracy of the estimation of the ads’ CTR. The recurrent neural network (RNN based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM is an improved model of the feedback neural network with ring structure. The model overcomes the problem of the gradient of the general RNN. Experiments show that the RNN based on LSTM exceeds the linear models, and it can effectively improve the estimation effect of the ads’ click through rate.

  18. Estimated erosion rate at the SRP burial ground

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horton, J.H.; Wilhite, E.L.

    1978-04-01

    The rate of soil erosion at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) burial ground can be calculated by means of the universal soil loss equation. Erosion rates estimated by the equation are more suitable for long-term prediction than those which could be measured with a reasonable effort in field studies. The predicted erosion rate at the SRP burial ground ranges from 0.0007 cm/year under stable forest cover to 0.38 cm/year if farmed with cultivated crops. These values correspond to 170,000 and 320 years, respectively, to expose waste buried 4 ft deep

  19. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole.

  20. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I.

    2013-01-01

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole

  1. A Pulse Rate Estimation Algorithm Using PPG and Smartphone Camera.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, Sarah Ali; Zhang, Yuan; Feng, Zhiquan; Kos, Anton

    2016-05-01

    The ubiquitous use and advancement in built-in smartphone sensors and the development in big data processing have been beneficial in several fields including healthcare. Among the basic vitals monitoring, pulse rate monitoring is the most important healthcare necessity. A multimedia video stream data acquired by built-in smartphone camera can be used to estimate it. In this paper, an algorithm that uses only smartphone camera as a sensor to estimate pulse rate using PhotoPlethysmograph (PPG) signals is proposed. The results obtained by the proposed algorithm are compared with the actual pulse rate and the maximum error found is 3 beats per minute. The standard deviation in percentage error and percentage accuracy is found to be 0.68 % whereas the average percentage error and percentage accuracy is found to be 1.98 % and 98.02 % respectively.

  2. A Fast Soft Bit Error Rate Estimation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ait-Idir Tarik

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We have suggested in a previous publication a method to estimate the Bit Error Rate (BER of a digital communications system instead of using the famous Monte Carlo (MC simulation. This method was based on the estimation of the probability density function (pdf of soft observed samples. The kernel method was used for the pdf estimation. In this paper, we suggest to use a Gaussian Mixture (GM model. The Expectation Maximisation algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of this mixture. The optimal number of Gaussians is computed by using Mutual Information Theory. The analytical expression of the BER is therefore simply given by using the different estimated parameters of the Gaussian Mixture. Simulation results are presented to compare the three mentioned methods: Monte Carlo, Kernel and Gaussian Mixture. We analyze the performance of the proposed BER estimator in the framework of a multiuser code division multiple access system and show that attractive performance is achieved compared with conventional MC or Kernel aided techniques. The results show that the GM method can drastically reduce the needed number of samples to estimate the BER in order to reduce the required simulation run-time, even at very low BER.

  3. Estimation of the rate of volcanism on Venus from reaction rate measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fegley, Bruce, Jr.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    1989-01-01

    Laboratory rate data for the reaction between SO2 and calcite to form anhydrite are presented. If this reaction rate represents the SO2 reaction rate on Venus, then all SO2 in the Venusian atmosphere will disappear in 1.9 Myr unless volcanism replenishes the lost SO2. The required volcanism rate, which depends on the sulfur content of the erupted material, is in the range 0.4-11 cu km of magma erupted per year. The Venus surface composition at the Venera 13, 14, and Vega 2 landing sites implies a volcanism rate of about 1 cu km/yr. This geochemically estimated rate can be used to determine if either (or neither) of two discordant geophysically estimated rates is correct. It also suggests that Venus may be less volcanically active than the earth.

  4. Estimating contaminant discharge rates from stabilized uranium tailings embankments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, M.F.

    1986-01-01

    Estimates of contaminant discharge rates from stabilized uranium tailings embankments are essential in evaluating long-term impacts of tailings disposal on groundwater resources. Contaminant discharge rates are a function of water flux through tailings covers, the mass and distribution of tailings, and the concentrations of contaminants in percolating pore fluids. Simple calculations, laboratory and field testing, and analytical and numerical modeling may be used to estimate water flux through variably-saturated tailings under steady-state conditions, which develop after consolidation and dewatering have essentially ceased. Contaminant concentrations in water discharging from the tailings depend on tailings composition, leachability and solubility of contaminants, geochemical conditions within the embankment, tailings-water interactions, and flux of water through the embankment. These concentrations may be estimated based on maximum reported concentrations, pore water concentrations, extrapolations of column leaching data, or geochemical equilibria and reaction pathway modeling. Attempts to estimate contaminant discharge rates should begin with simple, conservative calculations and progress to more-complicated approaches, as necessary

  5. Rating curve estimation of nutrient loads in Iowa rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenback, G.A.; Crumpton, W.G.; Schilling, K.E.; Helmers, M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Accurate estimation of nutrient loads in rivers and streams is critical for many applications including determination of sources of nutrient loads in watersheds, evaluating long-term trends in loads, and estimating loading to downstream waterbodies. Since in many cases nutrient concentrations are measured on a weekly or monthly frequency, there is a need to estimate concentration and loads during periods when no data is available. The objectives of this study were to: (i) document the performance of a multiple regression model to predict loads of nitrate and total phosphorus (TP) in Iowa rivers and streams; (ii) determine whether there is any systematic bias in the load prediction estimates for nitrate and TP; and (iii) evaluate streamflow and concentration factors that could affect the load prediction efficiency. A commonly cited rating curve regression is utilized to estimate riverine nitrate and TP loads for rivers in Iowa with watershed areas ranging from 17.4 to over 34,600km2. Forty-nine nitrate and 44 TP datasets each comprising 5-22years of approximately weekly to monthly concentrations were examined. Three nitrate data sets had sample collection frequencies averaging about three samples per week. The accuracy and precision of annual and long term riverine load prediction was assessed by direct comparison of rating curve load predictions with observed daily loads. Significant positive bias of annual and long term nitrate loads was detected. Long term rating curve nitrate load predictions exceeded observed loads by 25% or more at 33% of the 49 measurement sites. No bias was found for TP load prediction although 15% of the 44 cases either underestimated or overestimate observed long-term loads by more than 25%. The rating curve was found to poorly characterize nitrate and phosphorus variation in some rivers. ?? 2010 .

  6. Estimation of Stormwater Interception Rate for various LID Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S.; Lee, O.; Choi, J.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, the stormwater interception rate is proposed to apply in the design of LID facilities. For this purpose, EPA-SWMM is built with some areas of Noksan National Industrial Complex where long-term observed stormwater data were monitored and stormwater interception rates for various design capacities of various LID facilities are estimated. While the sensitivity of stormwater interception rate according to design specifications of bio-retention and infiltration trench facilities is not large, the sensitivity of stormwater interception rate according to local rainfall characteristics is relatively big. As a result of comparing the present rainfall interception rate estimation method which is officially operated in Korea with the one proposed in this study, it will be presented that the present method is highly likely to overestimate the performance of the bio-retention and infiltration trench facilities. Finally, a new stormwater interception rate formulas for the bio-retention and infiltration trench LID facilities will be proposed. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (2016000200002) from Public Welfare Technology Development Program funded by Ministry of Environment of Korean government.

  7. Application of a conversion factor to estimate the adenoma detection rate from the polyp detection rate.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Francis, Dawn L

    2011-03-01

    The adenoma detection rate (ADR) is a quality benchmark for colonoscopy. Many practices find it difficult to determine the ADR because it requires a combination of endoscopic and histologic findings. It may be possible to apply a conversion factor to estimate the ADR from the polyp detection rate (PDR).

  8. Pooling overdispersed binomial data to estimate event rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young-Xu, Yinong; Chan, K Arnold

    2008-08-19

    The beta-binomial model is one of the methods that can be used to validly combine event rates from overdispersed binomial data. Our objective is to provide a full description of this method and to update and broaden its applications in clinical and public health research. We describe the statistical theories behind the beta-binomial model and the associated estimation methods. We supply information about statistical software that can provide beta-binomial estimations. Using a published example, we illustrate the application of the beta-binomial model when pooling overdispersed binomial data. In an example regarding the safety of oral antifungal treatments, we had 41 treatment arms with event rates varying from 0% to 13.89%. Using the beta-binomial model, we obtained a summary event rate of 3.44% with a standard error of 0.59%. The parameters of the beta-binomial model took the values of 1.24 for alpha and 34.73 for beta. The beta-binomial model can provide a robust estimate for the summary event rate by pooling overdispersed binomial data from different studies. The explanation of the method and the demonstration of its applications should help researchers incorporate the beta-binomial method as they aggregate probabilities of events from heterogeneous studies.

  9. Pooling overdispersed binomial data to estimate event rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chan K Arnold

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The beta-binomial model is one of the methods that can be used to validly combine event rates from overdispersed binomial data. Our objective is to provide a full description of this method and to update and broaden its applications in clinical and public health research. Methods We describe the statistical theories behind the beta-binomial model and the associated estimation methods. We supply information about statistical software that can provide beta-binomial estimations. Using a published example, we illustrate the application of the beta-binomial model when pooling overdispersed binomial data. Results In an example regarding the safety of oral antifungal treatments, we had 41 treatment arms with event rates varying from 0% to 13.89%. Using the beta-binomial model, we obtained a summary event rate of 3.44% with a standard error of 0.59%. The parameters of the beta-binomial model took the values of 1.24 for alpha and 34.73 for beta. Conclusion The beta-binomial model can provide a robust estimate for the summary event rate by pooling overdispersed binomial data from different studies. The explanation of the method and the demonstration of its applications should help researchers incorporate the beta-binomial method as they aggregate probabilities of events from heterogeneous studies.

  10. Estimating error rates for firearm evidence identifications in forensic science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, John; Vorburger, Theodore V.; Chu, Wei; Yen, James; Soons, Johannes A.; Ott, Daniel B.; Zhang, Nien Fan

    2018-01-01

    Estimating error rates for firearm evidence identification is a fundamental challenge in forensic science. This paper describes the recently developed congruent matching cells (CMC) method for image comparisons, its application to firearm evidence identification, and its usage and initial tests for error rate estimation. The CMC method divides compared topography images into correlation cells. Four identification parameters are defined for quantifying both the topography similarity of the correlated cell pairs and the pattern congruency of the registered cell locations. A declared match requires a significant number of CMCs, i.e., cell pairs that meet all similarity and congruency requirements. Initial testing on breech face impressions of a set of 40 cartridge cases fired with consecutively manufactured pistol slides showed wide separation between the distributions of CMC numbers observed for known matching and known non-matching image pairs. Another test on 95 cartridge cases from a different set of slides manufactured by the same process also yielded widely separated distributions. The test results were used to develop two statistical models for the probability mass function of CMC correlation scores. The models were applied to develop a framework for estimating cumulative false positive and false negative error rates and individual error rates of declared matches and non-matches for this population of breech face impressions. The prospect for applying the models to large populations and realistic case work is also discussed. The CMC method can provide a statistical foundation for estimating error rates in firearm evidence identifications, thus emulating methods used for forensic identification of DNA evidence. PMID:29331680

  11. GARDEC, Estimation of dose-rates reduction by garden decontamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Togawa, Orihiko

    2006-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: GARDEC estimates the reduction of dose rates by garden decontamination. It provides the effect of different decontamination Methods, the depth of soil to be considered, dose-rate before and after decontamination and the reduction factor. 2 - Methods: This code takes into account three Methods of decontamination : (i)digging a garden in a special way, (ii) a removal of the upper layer of soil, and (iii) covering with a shielding layer of soil. The dose-rate conversion factor is defined as the external dose-rate, in the air, at a given height above the ground from a unit concentration of a specific radionuclide in each soil layer

  12. A nonparametric mixture model for cure rate estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Y; Dear, K B

    2000-03-01

    Nonparametric methods have attracted less attention than their parametric counterparts for cure rate analysis. In this paper, we study a general nonparametric mixture model. The proportional hazards assumption is employed in modeling the effect of covariates on the failure time of patients who are not cured. The EM algorithm, the marginal likelihood approach, and multiple imputations are employed to estimate parameters of interest in the model. This model extends models and improves estimation methods proposed by other researchers. It also extends Cox's proportional hazards regression model by allowing a proportion of event-free patients and investigating covariate effects on that proportion. The model and its estimation method are investigated by simulations. An application to breast cancer data, including comparisons with previous analyses using a parametric model and an existing nonparametric model by other researchers, confirms the conclusions from the parametric model but not those from the existing nonparametric model.

  13. Automatic estimation of pressure-dependent rate coefficients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Joshua W; Goldsmith, C Franklin; Green, William H

    2012-01-21

    A general framework is presented for accurately and efficiently estimating the phenomenological pressure-dependent rate coefficients for reaction networks of arbitrary size and complexity using only high-pressure-limit information. Two aspects of this framework are discussed in detail. First, two methods of estimating the density of states of the species in the network are presented, including a new method based on characteristic functional group frequencies. Second, three methods of simplifying the full master equation model of the network to a single set of phenomenological rates are discussed, including a new method based on the reservoir state and pseudo-steady state approximations. Both sets of methods are evaluated in the context of the chemically-activated reaction of acetyl with oxygen. All three simplifications of the master equation are usually accurate, but each fails in certain situations, which are discussed. The new methods usually provide good accuracy at a computational cost appropriate for automated reaction mechanism generation.

  14. Fast Rate Estimation for RDO Mode Decision in HEVC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxim P. Sharabayko

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The latter-day H.265/HEVC video compression standard is able to provide two-times higher compression efficiency compared to the current industrial standard, H.264/AVC. However, coding complexity also increased. The main bottleneck of the compression process is the rate-distortion optimization (RDO stage, as it involves numerous sequential syntax-based binary arithmetic coding (SBAC loops. In this paper, we present an entropy-based RDO estimation technique for H.265/HEVC compression, instead of the common approach based on the SBAC. Our RDO implementation reduces RDO complexity, providing an average bit rate overhead of 1.54%. At the same time, elimination of the SBAC from the RDO estimation reduces block interdependencies, thus providing an opportunity for the development of the compression system with parallel processing of multiple blocks of a video frame.

  15. Simple estimate of fission rate during JCO criticality accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oyamatsu, Kazuhiro [Faculty of Studies on Contemporary Society, Aichi Shukutoku Univ., Nagakute, Aichi (Japan)

    2000-03-01

    The fission rate during JCO criticality accident is estimated from fission-product (FP) radioactivities in a uranium solution sample taken from the preparation basin 20 days after the accident. The FP radioactivity data are taken from a report by JAERI released in the Accident Investigation Committee. The total fission number is found quite dependent on the FP radioactivities and estimated to be about 4x10{sup 16} per liter, or 2x10{sup 18} per 16 kgU (assuming uranium concentration 278.9 g/liter). On the contrary, the time dependence of the fission rate is rather insensitive to the FP radioactivities. Hence, it is difficult to determine the fission number in the initial burst from the radioactivity data. (author)

  16. Simple estimate of fission rate during JCO criticality accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyamatsu, Kazuhiro

    2000-01-01

    The fission rate during JCO criticality accident is estimated from fission-product (FP) radioactivities in a uranium solution sample taken from the preparation basin 20 days after the accident. The FP radioactivity data are taken from a report by JAERI released in the Accident Investigation Committee. The total fission number is found quite dependent on the FP radioactivities and estimated to be about 4x10 16 per liter, or 2x10 18 per 16 kgU (assuming uranium concentration 278.9 g/liter). On the contrary, the time dependence of the fission rate is rather insensitive to the FP radioactivities. Hence, it is difficult to determine the fission number in the initial burst from the radioactivity data. (author)

  17. Counting and confusion: Bayesian rate estimation with multiple populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farr, Will M.; Gair, Jonathan R.; Mandel, Ilya; Cutler, Curt

    2015-01-01

    We show how to obtain a Bayesian estimate of the rates or numbers of signal and background events from a set of events when the shapes of the signal and background distributions are known, can be estimated, or approximated; our method works well even if the foreground and background event distributions overlap significantly and the nature of any individual event cannot be determined with any certainty. We give examples of determining the rates of gravitational-wave events in the presence of background triggers from a template bank when noise parameters are known and/or can be fit from the trigger data. We also give an example of determining globular-cluster shape, location, and density from an observation of a stellar field that contains a nonuniform background density of stars superimposed on the cluster stars.

  18. Precise estimates of mutation rate and spectrum in yeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yuan O.; Siegal, Mark L.; Hall, David W.; Petrov, Dmitri A.

    2014-01-01

    Mutation is the ultimate source of genetic variation. The most direct and unbiased method of studying spontaneous mutations is via mutation accumulation (MA) lines. Until recently, MA experiments were limited by the cost of sequencing and thus provided us with small numbers of mutational events and therefore imprecise estimates of rates and patterns of mutation. We used whole-genome sequencing to identify nearly 1,000 spontaneous mutation events accumulated over ∼311,000 generations in 145 diploid MA lines of the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. MA experiments are usually assumed to have negligible levels of selection, but even mild selection will remove strongly deleterious events. We take advantage of such patterns of selection and show that mutation classes such as indels and aneuploidies (especially monosomies) are proportionately much more likely to contribute mutations of large effect. We also provide conservative estimates of indel, aneuploidy, environment-dependent dominant lethal, and recessive lethal mutation rates. To our knowledge, for the first time in yeast MA data, we identified a sufficiently large number of single-nucleotide mutations to measure context-dependent mutation rates and were able to (i) confirm strong AT bias of mutation in yeast driven by high rate of mutations from C/G to T/A and (ii) detect a higher rate of mutation at C/G nucleotides in two specific contexts consistent with cytosine methylation in S. cerevisiae. PMID:24847077

  19. Robust efficient estimation of heart rate pulse from video

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Shuchang; Sun, Lingyun; Rohde, Gustavo Kunde

    2014-01-01

    We describe a simple but robust algorithm for estimating the heart rate pulse from video sequences containing human skin in real time. Based on a model of light interaction with human skin, we define the change of blood concentration due to arterial pulsation as a pixel quotient in log space, and successfully use the derived signal for computing the pulse heart rate. Various experiments with different cameras, different illumination condition, and different skin locations were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed algorithm. Examples computed with normal illumination show the algorithm is comparable with pulse oximeter devices both in accuracy and sensitivity. PMID:24761294

  20. Estimating Effective Subsidy Rates of Student Aid Programs

    OpenAIRE

    Stacey H. CHEN

    2008-01-01

    Every year millions of high school students and their parents in the US are asked to fill out complicated financial aid application forms. However, few studies have estimated the responsiveness of government financial aid schemes to changes in financial needs of the students. This paper identifies the effective subsidy rate (ESR) of student aid, as defined by the coefficient of financial needs in the regression of financial aid. The ESR measures the proportion of subsidy of student aid under ...

  1. Cluster-collision frequency. II. Estimation of the collision rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amadon, A.S.; Marlow, W.H.

    1991-01-01

    Gas-phase cluster-collision rates, including effects of cluster morphology and long-range intermolecular forces, are calculated. Identical pairs of icosahedral or dodecahedral carbon tetrachloride clusters of 13, 33, and 55 molecules in two different relative orientations were discussed in the preceding paper [Phys. Rev. A 43, 5483 (1991)]: long-range interaction energies were derived based upon (i) exact calculations of the iterated, or many-body, induced-dipole interaction energies for the clusters in two fixed relative orientations; and (ii) bulk, or continuum descriptions (Lifshitz--van der Waals theory), of spheres of corresponding masses and diameters. In this paper, collision rates are calculated according to an exact description of the rates for small spheres interacting via realistic potentials. Utilizing the interaction energies of the preceding paper, several estimates of the collision rates are given by treating the discrete clusters in fixed relative orientations, by computing rotationally averaged potentials for the discrete clusters, and by approximating the clusters as continuum spheres. For the discrete, highly symmetric clusters treated here, the rates using the rotationally averaged potentials closely approximate the fixed-orientation rates and the values of the intercluster potentials for cluster surface separations under 2 A have negligible effect on the overall collision rates. While the 13-molecule cluster-collision rate differs by 50% from the rate calculated as if the cluster were bulk matter, the two larger cluster-collision rates differ by less than 15% from the macroscopic rates, thereby indicating the transition of microscopic to macroscopic behavior

  2. Simple method for the estimation of glomerular filtration rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groth, T [Group for Biomedical Informatics, Uppsala Univ. Data Center, Uppsala (Sweden); Tengstroem, B [District General Hospital, Skoevde (Sweden)

    1977-02-01

    A simple method is presented for indirect estimation of the glomerular filtration rate from two venous blood samples, drawn after a single injection of a small dose of (/sup 125/I)sodium iothalamate (10 ..mu..Ci). The method does not require exact dosage, as the first sample, taken after a few minutes (t=5 min) after injection, is used to normilize the value of the second sample, which should be taken in between 2 to 4 h after injection. The glomerular filtration rate, as measured by standard insulin clearance, may then be predicted from the logarithm of the normalized value and linear regression formulas with a standard error of estimate of the order of 1 to 2 ml/min/1.73 m/sup 2/. The slope-intercept method for direct estimation of glomerular filtration rate is also evaluated and found to significantly underestimate standard insulin clearance. The normalized 'single-point' method is concluded to be superior to the slope-intercept method and more sophisticated methods using curve fitting technique, with regard to predictive force and clinical applicability.

  3. Estimation of Sensory Pork Loin Tenderness Using Warner-Bratzler Shear Force and Texture Profile Analysis Measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choe, Jee-Hwan; Choi, Mi-Hee; Rhee, Min-Suk; Kim, Byoung-Chul

    2016-07-01

    This study investigated the degree to which instrumental measurements explain the variation in pork loin tenderness as assessed by the sensory evaluation of trained panelists. Warner-Bratzler shear force (WBS) had a significant relationship with the sensory tenderness variables, such as softness, initial tenderness, chewiness, and rate of breakdown. In a regression analysis, WBS could account variations in these sensory variables, though only to a limited proportion of variation. On the other hand, three parameters from texture profile analysis (TPA)-hardness, gumminess, and chewiness-were significantly correlated with all sensory evaluation variables. In particular, from the result of stepwise regression analysis, TPA hardness alone explained over 15% of variation in all sensory evaluation variables, with the exception of perceptible residue. Based on these results, TPA analysis was found to be better than WBS measurement, with the TPA parameter hardness likely to prove particularly useful, in terms of predicting pork loin tenderness as rated by trained panelists. However, sensory evaluation should be conducted to investigate practical pork tenderness perceived by consumer, because both instrumental measurements could explain only a small portion (less than 20%) of the variability in sensory evaluation.

  4. Phylogenetic estimates of diversification rate are affected by molecular rate variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duchêne, D A; Hua, X; Bromham, L

    2017-10-01

    Molecular phylogenies are increasingly being used to investigate the patterns and mechanisms of macroevolution. In particular, node heights in a phylogeny can be used to detect changes in rates of diversification over time. Such analyses rest on the assumption that node heights in a phylogeny represent the timing of diversification events, which in turn rests on the assumption that evolutionary time can be accurately predicted from DNA sequence divergence. But there are many influences on the rate of molecular evolution, which might also influence node heights in molecular phylogenies, and thus affect estimates of diversification rate. In particular, a growing number of studies have revealed an association between the net diversification rate estimated from phylogenies and the rate of molecular evolution. Such an association might, by influencing the relative position of node heights, systematically bias estimates of diversification time. We simulated the evolution of DNA sequences under several scenarios where rates of diversification and molecular evolution vary through time, including models where diversification and molecular evolutionary rates are linked. We show that commonly used methods, including metric-based, likelihood and Bayesian approaches, can have a low power to identify changes in diversification rate when molecular substitution rates vary. Furthermore, the association between the rates of speciation and molecular evolution rate can cause the signature of a slowdown or speedup in speciation rates to be lost or misidentified. These results suggest that the multiple sources of variation in molecular evolutionary rates need to be considered when inferring macroevolutionary processes from phylogenies. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  5. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER measurements. An algorithm for probabilistically estimating AER was developed based on the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory Infiltration model utilizing housing characteristics and meteorological data with adjustment for window opening behavior. The algorithm was evaluated by comparing modeled and measured AERs in four US cities (Los Angeles, CA; Detroit, MI; Elizabeth, NJ; and Houston, TX) inputting study-specific data. The impact on the modeled AER of using publically available housing data representative of the region for each city was also assessed. Finally, modeled AER based on region-specific inputs was compared with those estimated using literature-based distributions. While modeled AERs were similar in magnitude to the measured AER they were consistently lower for all cities except Houston. AERs estimated using region-specific inputs were lower than those using study-specific inputs due to differences in window opening probabilities. The algorithm produced more spatially and temporally variable AERs compared with literature-based distributions reflecting within- and between-city differences, helping reduce error in estimates of air pollutant exposure. Published in the Journal of

  6. Scale dependence of the alignment between strain rate and rotation in turbulent shear flow

    KAUST Repository

    Fiscaletti, D.; Elsinga, G. E.; Attili, Antonio; Bisetti, Fabrizio; Buxton, O. R. H.

    2016-01-01

    The scale dependence of the statistical alignment tendencies of the eigenvectors of the strain-rate tensor e(i), with the vorticity vector omega, is examined in the self-preserving region of a planar turbulent mixing layer. Data from a direct numerical simulation are filtered at various length scales and the probability density functions of the magnitude of the alignment cosines between the two unit vectors vertical bar e(i) . (omega) over cap vertical bar are examined. It is observed that the alignment tendencies are insensitive to the concurrent large-scale velocity fluctuations, but are quantitatively affected by the nature of the concurrent large-scale velocity-gradient fluctuations. It is confirmed that the small-scale (local) vorticity vector is preferentially aligned in parallel with the large-scale (background) extensive strain-rate eigenvector e(1), in contrast to the global tendency for omega to be aligned in parallelwith the intermediate strain-rate eigenvector [Hamlington et al., Phys. Fluids 20, 111703 (2008)]. When only data from regions of the flow that exhibit strong swirling are included, the so-called high-enstrophy worms, the alignment tendencies are exaggerated with respect to the global picture. These findings support the notion that the production of enstrophy, responsible for a net cascade of turbulent kinetic energy from large scales to small scales, is driven by vorticity stretching due to the preferential parallel alignment between omega and nonlocal e(1) and that the strongly swirling worms are kinematically significant to this process.

  7. Scale dependence of the alignment between strain rate and rotation in turbulent shear flow

    KAUST Repository

    Fiscaletti, D.

    2016-10-24

    The scale dependence of the statistical alignment tendencies of the eigenvectors of the strain-rate tensor e(i), with the vorticity vector omega, is examined in the self-preserving region of a planar turbulent mixing layer. Data from a direct numerical simulation are filtered at various length scales and the probability density functions of the magnitude of the alignment cosines between the two unit vectors vertical bar e(i) . (omega) over cap vertical bar are examined. It is observed that the alignment tendencies are insensitive to the concurrent large-scale velocity fluctuations, but are quantitatively affected by the nature of the concurrent large-scale velocity-gradient fluctuations. It is confirmed that the small-scale (local) vorticity vector is preferentially aligned in parallel with the large-scale (background) extensive strain-rate eigenvector e(1), in contrast to the global tendency for omega to be aligned in parallelwith the intermediate strain-rate eigenvector [Hamlington et al., Phys. Fluids 20, 111703 (2008)]. When only data from regions of the flow that exhibit strong swirling are included, the so-called high-enstrophy worms, the alignment tendencies are exaggerated with respect to the global picture. These findings support the notion that the production of enstrophy, responsible for a net cascade of turbulent kinetic energy from large scales to small scales, is driven by vorticity stretching due to the preferential parallel alignment between omega and nonlocal e(1) and that the strongly swirling worms are kinematically significant to this process.

  8. Resetting of Quartz OSL (optically stimulated luminescence) Signals by Frictional Heating in Experimentally Sheared Gouges at Seismic Slip Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. H.; Choi, J. H.; Chauhan, N.; Lee, S.; Hirose, T.; Ree, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Recent studies on natural and experimental seismic faults have revealed that frictional heating plays an important role in earthquake dynamics as well as in producing mineralogical and microstructural signatures of seismic faulting. Here, we report changes in OSL signals in quartz by frictional heating in experimental fault gouges. The gouges (80% of quartz and 20% of bentonite by weight) with a thickness of 1 mm were sheared between sandstone cylinders (diameter: 25 mm) at a normal stress of 1 MPa and slip rate of 1.31 m/s. The quartz grains from a sand dune on the western coast of South Korea were sieved to select size fractions between 90 and 250 μm. The equivalent dose (De) of the undeformed quartz grains was 8.0 ± 0.3 Gy. Upon displacement, the friction abruptly increases to the 1st peak (with friction coefficient μ ≈ 0.75) followed by slip weakening. Then the fault zones show two more peak frictions (μ ≈ 0.53~0.75) and finally reach a steady-state friction (μ ≈ 0.2~0.35). The fault can be divided into three zones based grain size (thus slip rate); slip localization (SLZ), intermediate slip-rate (ISZ) and low slip-rate (LSZ) zones. SLZ develops adjacent to the moving side of the sandstone cylinder with P-foliation and shear band. The size of quartz (Dq) in ISZ and LSZ is 5-30 μm and 50-250 μm, respectively. SEM and TEM analyses indicate that the fault gouge of SLZ consists of subangular quartz clasts (Dq ≈ 3 μm) and matrix of nano-scale quartz, unidentified silicate minerals and amorphous material. The fault zones were sectioned into six layers (~160 µm thick for each layer) parallel to the fault zone boundary for OSL analyses. Quartz grains from all the layers except the one immediately adjacent to the stationary side of the sandstone cylinder show De of 'effectively' 0 Gy indicating a full resetting of OSL signals. The partial resetting of OSL signal in the layer adjacent to the stationary side of the cylinder indicates the temperature (T

  9. Lumley's energy cascade dissipation rate model for boundary-free turbulent shear flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, B. S.

    1992-01-01

    True dissipation occurs mainly at the highest wavenumbers where the eddy sizes are comparatively small. These high wavenumbers receive their energy through the spectral cascade of energy starting with the largest eddies spilling energy into the smaller eddies, passing through each wavenumber until it is dissipated at the microscopic scale. However, a small percentage of the energy does not spill continuously through the cascade but is instantly passed to the higher wavenumbers. Consequently, the smallest eddies receive a certain amount of energy almost immediately. As the spectral energy cascade continues, the highest wavenumber needs a certain time to receive all the energy which has been transferred from the largest eddies. As such, there is a time delay, of the order of tau, between the generation of energy by the largest eddies and the eventual dissipation of this energy. For equilibrium turbulence at high Reynolds numbers, there is a wide range where energy is neither produced by the large eddies nor dissipated by viscosity, but is conserved and passed from wavenumber to higher wavenumbers. The rate at which energy cascades from one wavenumber to another is proportional to the energy contained within that wavenumber. This rate is constant and has been used in the past as a dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy. However, this is true only in steady, equilibrium turbulence. Most dissipation models contend that the production of dissipation is proportional to the production of energy and that the destruction of dissipation is proportional to the destruction of energy. In essence, these models state that the change in the dissipation rate is proportional to the change in the kinetic energy. This assumption is obviously incorrect for the case where there is no production of turbulent energy, yet energy continues to cascade from large to small eddies. If the time lag between the onset on the energy cascade to the destruction of energy at the microscale can be

  10. Estimating marginal CO2 emissions rates for national electricity systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawkes, A.D.

    2010-01-01

    The carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reduction afforded by a demand-side intervention in the electricity system is typically assessed by means of an assumed grid emissions rate, which measures the CO 2 intensity of electricity not used as a result of the intervention. This emissions rate is called the 'marginal emissions factor' (MEF). Accurate estimation of MEFs is crucial for performance assessment because their application leads to decisions regarding the relative merits of CO 2 reduction strategies. This article contributes to formulating the principles by which MEFs are estimated, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses in existing approaches, and presenting an alternative based on the observed behaviour of power stations. The case of Great Britain is considered, demonstrating an MEF of 0.69 kgCO 2 /kW h for 2002-2009, with error bars at +/-10%. This value could reduce to 0.6 kgCO 2 /kW h over the next decade under planned changes to the underlying generation mix, and could further reduce to approximately 0.51 kgCO 2 /kW h before 2025 if all power stations commissioned pre-1970 are replaced by their modern counterparts. Given that these rates are higher than commonly applied system-average or assumed 'long term marginal' emissions rates, it is concluded that maintenance of an improved understanding of MEFs is valuable to better inform policy decisions.

  11. Can we estimate bacterial growth rates from ribosomal RNA content?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kemp, P.F.

    1995-12-31

    Several studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between the quantity of RNA in bacterial cells and their growth rate under laboratory conditions. It may be possible to use this relationship to provide information on the activity of natural bacterial communities, and in particular on growth rate. However, if this approach is to provide reliably interpretable information, the relationship between RNA content and growth rate must be well-understood. In particular, a requisite of such applications is that the relationship must be universal among bacteria, or alternately that the relationship can be determined and measured for specific bacterial taxa. The RNA-growth rate relationship has not been used to evaluate bacterial growth in field studies, although RNA content has been measured in single cells and in bulk extracts of field samples taken from coastal environments. These measurements have been treated as probable indicators of bacterial activity, but have not yet been interpreted as estimators of growth rate. The primary obstacle to such interpretations is a lack of information on biological and environmental factors that affect the RNA-growth rate relationship. In this paper, the available data on the RNA-growth rate relationship in bacteria will be reviewed, including hypotheses regarding the regulation of RNA synthesis and degradation as a function of growth rate and environmental factors; i.e. the basic mechanisms for maintaining RNA content in proportion to growth rate. An assessment of the published laboratory and field data, the current status of this research area, and some of the remaining questions will be presented.

  12. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Li, X.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Zhou, T.; Bahn, M.; Black, A.; Desai, A.R.; Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.; Jacobs, C.; Chen, J.; Aurela, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Gielen, B.; Bohrer, G.; Cook, D.R.; Dragoni, D.; Dunn, A.L.; Gianelle, D.; Grnwald, T.; Ibrom, A.; Leclerc, M.Y.; Lindroth, A.; Liu, H.; Marchesini, L.B.; Montagnani, L.; Pita, G.; Rodeghiero, M.; Rodrigues, A.; Starr, G.; Stoy, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ∼3°S to ∼70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual temperature can be considered as BR in empirical models. A strong correlation was found between the mean annual ER and mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Consequently, GPP, which is typically more accurately modeled, can be used to estimate BR. A light use efficiency GPP model (i.e., EC-LUE) was applied to estimate global GPP, BR and ER with input data from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global ER was 103 Pg C yr −1, with the highest respiration rate over tropical forests and the lowest value in dry and high-latitude areas.

  13. Aniseikonia quantification: error rate of rule of thumb estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubkin, V; Shippman, S; Bennett, G; Meininger, D; Kramer, P; Poppinga, P

    1999-01-01

    To find the error rate in quantifying aniseikonia by using "Rule of Thumb" estimation in comparison with proven space eikonometry. Study 1: 24 adult pseudophakic individuals were measured for anisometropia, and astigmatic interocular difference. Rule of Thumb quantification for prescription was calculated and compared with aniseikonia measurement by the classical Essilor Projection Space Eikonometer. Study 2: parallel analysis was performed on 62 consecutive phakic patients from our strabismus clinic group. Frequency of error: For Group 1 (24 cases): 5 ( or 21 %) were equal (i.e., 1% or less difference); 16 (or 67% ) were greater (more than 1% different); and 3 (13%) were less by Rule of Thumb calculation in comparison to aniseikonia determined on the Essilor eikonometer. For Group 2 (62 cases): 45 (or 73%) were equal (1% or less); 10 (or 16%) were greater; and 7 (or 11%) were lower in the Rule of Thumb calculations in comparison to Essilor eikonometry. Magnitude of error: In Group 1, in 10/24 (29%) aniseikonia by Rule of Thumb estimation was 100% or more greater than by space eikonometry, and in 6 of those ten by 200% or more. In Group 2, in 4/62 (6%) aniseikonia by Rule of Thumb estimation was 200% or more greater than by space eikonometry. The frequency and magnitude of apparent clinical errors of Rule of Thumb estimation is disturbingly large. This problem is greatly magnified by the time and effort and cost of prescribing and executing an aniseikonic correction for a patient. The higher the refractive error, the greater the anisometropia, and the worse the errors in Rule of Thumb estimation of aniseikonia. Accurate eikonometric methods and devices should be employed in all cases where such measurements can be made. Rule of thumb estimations should be limited to cases where such subjective testing and measurement cannot be performed, as in infants after unilateral cataract surgery.

  14. Estimation of evapotranspiration rate in irrigated lands using stable isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umirzakov, Gulomjon; Windhorst, David; Forkutsa, Irina; Brauer, Lutz; Frede, Hans-Georg

    2013-04-01

    Agriculture in the Aral Sea basin is the main consumer of water resources and due to the current agricultural management practices inefficient water usage causes huge losses of freshwater resources. There is huge potential to save water resources in order to reach a more efficient water use in irrigated areas. Therefore, research is required to reveal the mechanisms of hydrological fluxes in irrigated areas. This paper focuses on estimation of evapotranspiration which is one of the crucial components in the water balance of irrigated lands. Our main objective is to estimate the rate of evapotranspiration on irrigated lands and partitioning of evaporation into transpiration using stable isotopes measurements. Experiments has done in 2 different soil types (sandy and sandy loam) irrigated areas in Ferghana Valley (Uzbekistan). Soil samples were collected during the vegetation period. The soil water from these samples was extracted via a cryogenic extraction method and analyzed for the isotopic ratio of the water isotopes (2H and 18O) based on a laser spectroscopy method (DLT 100, Los Gatos USA). Evapotranspiration rates were estimated with Isotope Mass Balance method. The results of evapotranspiration obtained using isotope mass balance method is compared with the results of Catchment Modeling Framework -1D model results which has done in the same area and the same time.

  15. Shear machines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Astill, M.; Sunderland, A.; Waine, M.G.

    1980-01-01

    A shear machine for irradiated nuclear fuel elements has a replaceable shear assembly comprising a fuel element support block, a shear blade support and a clamp assembly which hold the fuel element to be sheared in contact with the support block. A first clamp member contacts the fuel element remote from the shear blade and a second clamp member contacts the fuel element adjacent the shear blade and is advanced towards the support block during shearing to compensate for any compression of the fuel element caused by the shear blade (U.K.)

  16. Effects of systematic sampling on satellite estimates of deforestation rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steininger, M K; Godoy, F; Harper, G

    2009-01-01

    Options for satellite monitoring of deforestation rates over large areas include the use of sampling. Sampling may reduce the cost of monitoring but is also a source of error in estimates of areas and rates. A common sampling approach is systematic sampling, in which sample units of a constant size are distributed in some regular manner, such as a grid. The proposed approach for the 2010 Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is a systematic sample of 10 km wide squares at every 1 deg. intersection of latitude and longitude. We assessed the outcome of this and other systematic samples for estimating deforestation at national, sub-national and continental levels. The study is based on digital data on deforestation patterns for the five Amazonian countries outside Brazil plus the Brazilian Amazon. We tested these schemes by varying sample-unit size and frequency. We calculated two estimates of sampling error. First we calculated the standard errors, based on the size, variance and covariance of the samples, and from this calculated the 95% confidence intervals (CI). Second, we calculated the actual errors, based on the difference between the sample-based estimates and the estimates from the full-coverage maps. At the continental level, the 1 deg., 10 km scheme had a CI of 21% and an actual error of 8%. At the national level, this scheme had CIs of 126% for Ecuador and up to 67% for other countries. At this level, increasing sampling density to every 0.25 deg. produced a CI of 32% for Ecuador and CIs of up to 25% for other countries, with only Brazil having a CI of less than 10%. Actual errors were within the limits of the CIs in all but two of the 56 cases. Actual errors were half or less of the CIs in all but eight of these cases. These results indicate that the FRA 2010 should have CIs of smaller than or close to 10% at the continental level. However, systematic sampling at the national level yields large CIs unless the

  17. Empirical estimation of astrophysical photodisintegration rates of 106Cd

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belyshev, S. S.; Kuznetsov, A. A.; Stopani, K. A.

    2017-09-01

    It has been noted in previous experiments that the ratio between the photoneutron and photoproton disintegration channels of 106Cd might be considerably different from predictions of statistical models. The thresholds of these reactions differ by several MeV and the total astrophysical rate of photodisintegration of 106Cd, which is mostly produced in photonuclear reactions during the p-process nucleosynthesis, might be noticeably different from the calculated value. In this work the bremsstrahlung beam of a 55.6 MeV microtron and the photon activation technique is used to measure yields of photonuclear reaction products on isotopically-enriched cadmium targets. The obtained results are compared with predictions of statistical models. The experimental yields are used to estimate photodisintegration reaction rates on 106Cd, which are then used in nuclear network calculations to examine the effects of uncertainties on the produced abundences of p-nuclei.

  18. Development of dose rate estimation system for FBR maintenance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iizawa, Katsuyuki [Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Inst., Tsuruga Head Office, International Cooperation and Technology Development Center, Tsuruga, Fukui (Japan); Takeuchi, Jun; Yoshikawa, Satoru [Hitachi Engineering Company, Ltd., Hitachi, Ibaraki (Japan); Urushihara, Hiroshi [Ibaraki Hitachi Information Service Co., Ltd., Omika, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2001-09-01

    During maintenance activities on the primary sodium cooling system by an FBR Personnel radiation exposure arises mainly from the presence of radioactive corrosion products (CP). A CP behavior analysis code, PSYCHE, and a radiation shielding calculation code, QAD-CG, have been developed and applied to investigate the possible reduction of radiation exposure of workers. In order to make these evaluation methods more accessible to plant engineers, the user interface of the codes has been improved and an integrated system, including visualization of the calculated gamma-ray radiation dose-rate map, has been developed. The system has been verified by evaluating the distribution of the radiation dose-rate within the Monju primary heat transport system cells from the estimated saturated CP deposition and distribution which would be present following about 20 cycles of full power operation. (author)

  19. Development of dose rate estimation system for FBR maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iizawa, Katsuyuki; Takeuchi, Jun; Yoshikawa, Satoru; Urushihara, Hiroshi

    2001-01-01

    During maintenance activities on the primary sodium cooling system by an FBR Personnel radiation exposure arises mainly from the presence of radioactive corrosion products (CP). A CP behavior analysis code, PSYCHE, and a radiation shielding calculation code, QAD-CG, have been developed and applied to investigate the possible reduction of radiation exposure of workers. In order to make these evaluation methods more accessible to plant engineers, the user interface of the codes has been improved and an integrated system, including visualization of the calculated gamma-ray radiation dose-rate map, has been developed. The system has been verified by evaluating the distribution of the radiation dose-rate within the Monju primary heat transport system cells from the estimated saturated CP deposition and distribution which would be present following about 20 cycles of full power operation. (author)

  20. A quasi-independence model to estimate failure rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, A.G.

    1988-01-01

    The use of a quasi-independence model to estimate failure rates is investigated. Gate valves of nuclear plants are considered, and two qualitative covariates are taken into account: plant location and reactor system. Independence between the two covariates and an exponential failure model are assumed. The failure rate of the components of a given system and plant is assumed to be a constant, but it may vary from one system to another and from one plant to another. This leads to the analysis of a contingency table. A particular feature of the model is the different operating time of the components in the various cells which can also be equal to zero. The concept of independence of the covariates is then replaced by that of quasi-independence. The latter definition, however, is used in a broader sense than usual. Suitable statistical tests are discussed and a numerical example illustrates the use of the method. (author)

  1. Shear modulus estimation on vastus intermedius of elderly and young females over the entire range of isometric contraction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cong-Zhi Wang

    Full Text Available Elderly people often suffer from sarcopenia in their lower extremities, which gives rise to the increased susceptibility of fall. Comparing the mechanical properties of the knee extensor/flexors on elderly and young subjects is helpful in understanding the underlying mechanisms of the muscle aging process. However, although the stiffness of skeletal muscle has been proved to be positively correlated to its non-fatiguing contraction intensity by some existing methods, this conclusion has not been verified above 50% maximum voluntary contraction (MVC due to the limitation of their measurement range. In this study, a vibro-ultrasound system was set up to achieve a considerably larger measurement range on muscle stiffness estimation. Its feasibility was verified on self-made silicone phantoms by comparing with the mechanical indentation method. The system was then used to assess the stiffness of vastus intermedius (VI, one of the knee extensors, on 10 healthy elderly female subjects (56.7 ± 4.9 yr and 10 healthy young female subjects (27.6 ± 5.0 yr. The VI stiffness in its action direction was confirmed to be positively correlated to the % MVC level (R2 = 0.999 over the entire range of isometric contraction, i.e. from 0% MVC (relaxed state to 100% MVC. Furthermore, it was shown that there was no significant difference between the mean VI shear modulus of the elderly and young subjects in a relaxed state (p > 0.1. However, when performing step isometric contraction, the VI stiffness of young female subjects was found to be larger than that of elderly participants (p < 0.001, especially at the relatively higher contraction levels. The results expanded our knowledge on the mechanical property of the elderly's skeletal muscle and its relationship with intensity of active contraction. Furthermore, the vibro-ultrasound system has a potential to become a powerful tool for investigating the elderly's muscle diseases.

  2. Optimized support vector regression for drilling rate of penetration estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodaghi, Asadollah; Ansari, Hamid Reza; Gholami, Mahsa

    2015-12-01

    In the petroleum industry, drilling optimization involves the selection of operating conditions for achieving the desired depth with the minimum expenditure while requirements of personal safety, environment protection, adequate information of penetrated formations and productivity are fulfilled. Since drilling optimization is highly dependent on the rate of penetration (ROP), estimation of this parameter is of great importance during well planning. In this research, a novel approach called `optimized support vector regression' is employed for making a formulation between input variables and ROP. Algorithms used for optimizing the support vector regression are the genetic algorithm (GA) and the cuckoo search algorithm (CS). Optimization implementation improved the support vector regression performance by virtue of selecting proper values for its parameters. In order to evaluate the ability of optimization algorithms in enhancing SVR performance, their results were compared to the hybrid of pattern search and grid search (HPG) which is conventionally employed for optimizing SVR. The results demonstrated that the CS algorithm achieved further improvement on prediction accuracy of SVR compared to the GA and HPG as well. Moreover, the predictive model derived from back propagation neural network (BPNN), which is the traditional approach for estimating ROP, is selected for comparisons with CSSVR. The comparative results revealed the superiority of CSSVR. This study inferred that CSSVR is a viable option for precise estimation of ROP.

  3. Estimation of human core temperature from sequential heart rate observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buller, Mark J; Tharion, William J; Cheuvront, Samuel N; Montain, Scott J; Kenefick, Robert W; Castellani, John; Latzka, William A; Hoyt, Reed W; Roberts, Warren S; Richter, Mark; Jenkins, Odest Chadwicke

    2013-01-01

    Core temperature (CT) in combination with heart rate (HR) can be a good indicator of impending heat exhaustion for occupations involving exposure to heat, heavy workloads, and wearing protective clothing. However, continuously measuring CT in an ambulatory environment is difficult. To address this problem we developed a model to estimate the time course of CT using a series of HR measurements as a leading indicator using a Kalman filter. The model was trained using data from 17 volunteers engaged in a 24 h military field exercise (air temperatures 24–36 °C, and 42%–97% relative humidity and CTs ranging from 36.0–40.0 °C). Validation data from laboratory and field studies (N = 83) encompassing various combinations of temperature, hydration, clothing, and acclimation state were examined using the Bland–Altman limits of agreement (LoA) method. We found our model had an overall bias of −0.03 ± 0.32 °C and that 95% of all CT estimates fall within ±0.63 °C (>52 000 total observations). While the model for estimating CT is not a replacement for direct measurement of CT (literature comparisons of esophageal and rectal methods average LoAs of ±0.58 °C) our results suggest it is accurate enough to provide practical indication of thermal work strain for use in the work place. (paper)

  4. Estimation of human core temperature from sequential heart rate observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buller, Mark J; Tharion, William J; Cheuvront, Samuel N; Montain, Scott J; Kenefick, Robert W; Castellani, John; Latzka, William A; Roberts, Warren S; Richter, Mark; Jenkins, Odest Chadwicke; Hoyt, Reed W

    2013-07-01

    Core temperature (CT) in combination with heart rate (HR) can be a good indicator of impending heat exhaustion for occupations involving exposure to heat, heavy workloads, and wearing protective clothing. However, continuously measuring CT in an ambulatory environment is difficult. To address this problem we developed a model to estimate the time course of CT using a series of HR measurements as a leading indicator using a Kalman filter. The model was trained using data from 17 volunteers engaged in a 24 h military field exercise (air temperatures 24-36 °C, and 42%-97% relative humidity and CTs ranging from 36.0-40.0 °C). Validation data from laboratory and field studies (N = 83) encompassing various combinations of temperature, hydration, clothing, and acclimation state were examined using the Bland-Altman limits of agreement (LoA) method. We found our model had an overall bias of -0.03 ± 0.32 °C and that 95% of all CT estimates fall within ±0.63 °C (>52 000 total observations). While the model for estimating CT is not a replacement for direct measurement of CT (literature comparisons of esophageal and rectal methods average LoAs of ±0.58 °C) our results suggest it is accurate enough to provide practical indication of thermal work strain for use in the work place.

  5. Increasing fMRI sampling rate improves Granger causality estimates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fa-Hsuan Lin

    Full Text Available Estimation of causal interactions between brain areas is necessary for elucidating large-scale functional brain networks underlying behavior and cognition. Granger causality analysis of time series data can quantitatively estimate directional information flow between brain regions. Here, we show that such estimates are significantly improved when the temporal sampling rate of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI is increased 20-fold. Specifically, healthy volunteers performed a simple visuomotor task during blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD contrast based whole-head inverse imaging (InI. Granger causality analysis based on raw InI BOLD data sampled at 100-ms resolution detected the expected causal relations, whereas when the data were downsampled to the temporal resolution of 2 s typically used in echo-planar fMRI, the causality could not be detected. An additional control analysis, in which we SINC interpolated additional data points to the downsampled time series at 0.1-s intervals, confirmed that the improvements achieved with the real InI data were not explainable by the increased time-series length alone. We therefore conclude that the high-temporal resolution of InI improves the Granger causality connectivity analysis of the human brain.

  6. Commercial Discount Rate Estimation for Efficiency Standards Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujita, K. Sydny [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-04-13

    Underlying each of the Department of Energy's (DOE's) federal appliance and equipment standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). A proposed standard is considered economically justified when its benefits exceed its burdens, as represented by the projected net present value of costs and benefits. DOE performs multiple analyses to evaluate the balance of costs and benefits of commercial appliance and equipment e efficiency standards, at the national and individual building or business level, each framed to capture different nuances of the complex impact of standards on the commercial end user population. The Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels.1 Thus, the choice of commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the Life-Cycle Cost model implicitly plays a key role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels.2 This report is intended to provide a more in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process than can be readily included in standard rulemaking Technical Support Documents (TSDs).

  7. Automatic estimation of pressure-dependent rate coefficients

    KAUST Repository

    Allen, Joshua W.; Goldsmith, C. Franklin; Green, William H.

    2012-01-01

    A general framework is presented for accurately and efficiently estimating the phenomenological pressure-dependent rate coefficients for reaction networks of arbitrary size and complexity using only high-pressure-limit information. Two aspects of this framework are discussed in detail. First, two methods of estimating the density of states of the species in the network are presented, including a new method based on characteristic functional group frequencies. Second, three methods of simplifying the full master equation model of the network to a single set of phenomenological rates are discussed, including a new method based on the reservoir state and pseudo-steady state approximations. Both sets of methods are evaluated in the context of the chemically-activated reaction of acetyl with oxygen. All three simplifications of the master equation are usually accurate, but each fails in certain situations, which are discussed. The new methods usually provide good accuracy at a computational cost appropriate for automated reaction mechanism generation. This journal is © the Owner Societies.

  8. The effect of shear rate on aggregate size distribution and structure at steady state: a comparison between a Taylor–Couette reactor to a mixing tank

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bubáková, Petra; Pivokonský, Martin; Pivokonský, Radek; Filip, Petr

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 62, č. 5 (2013), s. 288-295 ISSN 0003-7214 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP105/11/0247 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : aggregate size distribution * aggregation * flocculation * fractal dimension * shear rate Subject RIV: BK - Fluid Dynamics Impact factor: 0.521, year: 2013

  9. Influence of temperature, concentration and shear rate on the rheological behavior of malay apple (Syzygium malaccense juice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Henrique Santos

    Full Text Available Summary The aim of this study was to evaluate the rheological behavior of malay apple, a traditional Amazonian fruit with high bioactive properties, at different temperatures and soluble solids concentrations. The experiments were carried out in a Brookfield R/S Plus rheometer with concentric cylinders geometry. Power Law, Herschel-Bulkley, Mizrahi-Berk, and Sisko rheological models were fitted to the experimental data. The malay apple juice (pulp and skin showed a pseudoplastic behavior for all temperatures and concentrations with flow behavior indexes lower than 1. The temperature effect on the samples’ apparent viscosity was analyzed by the Arrhenius equation. The activation energy increased with a decrease in the soluble solids concentration, showing that the lower the concentration, the greater the temperature influence on the apparent viscosity. The soluble solids effect was described by the exponential equation. The exponential factor increased with the temperature increasing, showing that the higher the temperature, the greater the effect of the soluble solids concentration on samples’ apparent viscosity. Finally, a triparametric mathematical model combining temperature, concentration, and shear rate was proposed aiming to evaluate its effects on the samples’ apparent viscosity and has accurately adjusted to the data with high correlation index R2.

  10. Estimation of adjusted rate differences using additive negative binomial regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donoghoe, Mark W; Marschner, Ian C

    2016-08-15

    Rate differences are an important effect measure in biostatistics and provide an alternative perspective to rate ratios. When the data are event counts observed during an exposure period, adjusted rate differences may be estimated using an identity-link Poisson generalised linear model, also known as additive Poisson regression. A problem with this approach is that the assumption of equality of mean and variance rarely holds in real data, which often show overdispersion. An additive negative binomial model is the natural alternative to account for this; however, standard model-fitting methods are often unable to cope with the constrained parameter space arising from the non-negativity restrictions of the additive model. In this paper, we propose a novel solution to this problem using a variant of the expectation-conditional maximisation-either algorithm. Our method provides a reliable way to fit an additive negative binomial regression model and also permits flexible generalisations using semi-parametric regression functions. We illustrate the method using a placebo-controlled clinical trial of fenofibrate treatment in patients with type II diabetes, where the outcome is the number of laser therapy courses administered to treat diabetic retinopathy. An R package is available that implements the proposed method. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Estimating implied rates of discount in healthcare decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, R R; McNabb, R; Thompson, A G H; Sheldon, T A; Grimley Evans, J

    2003-01-01

    To consider whether implied rates of discounting from the perspectives of individual and society differ, and whether implied rates of discounting in health differ from those implied in choices involving finance or "goods". The study comprised first a review of economics, health economics and social science literature and then an empirical estimate of implied rates of discounting in four fields: personal financial, personal health, public financial and public health, in representative samples of the public and of healthcare professionals. Samples were drawn in the former county and health authority district of South Glamorgan, Wales. The public sample was a representative random sample of men and women, aged over 18 years and drawn from electoral registers. The health professional sample was drawn at random with the cooperation of professional leads to include doctors, nurses, professions allied to medicine, public health, planners and administrators. The literature review revealed few empirical studies in representative samples of the population, few direct comparisons of public with private decision-making and few direct comparisons of health with financial discounting. Implied rates of discounting varied widely and studies suggested that discount rates are higher the smaller the value of the outcome and the shorter the period considered. The relationship between implied discount rates and personal attributes was mixed, possibly reflecting the limited nature of the samples. Although there were few direct comparisons, some studies found that individuals apply different rates of discount to social compared with private comparisons and health compared with financial. The present study also found a wide range of implied discount rates, with little systematic effect of age, gender, educational level or long-term illness. There was evidence, in both samples, that people chose a lower rate of discount in comparisons made on behalf of society than in comparisons made for

  12. Estimating glomerular filtration rate in a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anoop Shankar

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Anoop Shankar1, Kristine E Lee2, Barbara EK Klein2, Paul Muntner3, Peter C Brazy4, Karen J Cruickshanks2,5, F Javier Nieto5, Lorraine G Danforth2, Carla R Schubert2,5, Michael Y Tsai6, Ronald Klein21Department of Community Medicine, West Virginia University School of Medicine, Morgantown, WV, USA; 2Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, 4Department of Medicine, 5Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin, School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI, USA; 3Department of Community Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, NY, USA; 6Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USABackground: Glomerular filtration rate (GFR-estimating equations are used to determine the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD in population-based studies. However, it has been suggested that since the commonly used GFR equations were originally developed from samples of patients with CKD, they underestimate GFR in healthy populations. Few studies have made side-by-side comparisons of the effect of various estimating equations on the prevalence estimates of CKD in a general population sample.Patients and methods: We examined a population-based sample comprising adults from Wisconsin (age, 43–86 years; 56% women. We compared the prevalence of CKD, defined as a GFR of <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 estimated from serum creatinine, by applying various commonly used equations including the modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD equation, Cockcroft–Gault (CG equation, and the Mayo equation. We compared the performance of these equations against the CKD definition of cystatin C >1.23 mg/L.Results: We found that the prevalence of CKD varied widely among different GFR equations. Although the prevalence of CKD was 17.2% with the MDRD equation and 16.5% with the CG equation, it was only 4.8% with the Mayo equation. Only 24% of those identified to have GFR in the range of 50–59 mL/min per 1

  13. SEE rate estimation based on diffusion approximation of charge collection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sogoyan, Armen V.; Chumakov, Alexander I.; Smolin, Anatoly A.

    2018-03-01

    The integral rectangular parallelepiped (IRPP) method remains the main approach to single event rate (SER) prediction for aerospace systems, despite the growing number of issues impairing method's validity when applied to scaled technology nodes. One of such issues is uncertainty in parameters extraction in the IRPP method, which can lead to a spread of several orders of magnitude in the subsequently calculated SER. The paper presents an alternative approach to SER estimation based on diffusion approximation of the charge collection by an IC element and geometrical interpretation of SEE cross-section. In contrast to the IRPP method, the proposed model includes only two parameters which are uniquely determined from the experimental data for normal incidence irradiation at an ion accelerator. This approach eliminates the necessity of arbitrary decisions during parameter extraction and, thus, greatly simplifies calculation procedure and increases the robustness of the forecast.

  14. Estimation of mortality rates in stage-structured population

    CERN Document Server

    Wood, Simon N

    1991-01-01

    The stated aims of the Lecture Notes in Biomathematics allow for work that is "unfinished or tentative". This volume is offered in that spirit. The problem addressed is one of the classics of statistical ecology, the estimation of mortality rates from stage-frequency data, but in tackling it we found ourselves making use of ideas and techniques very different from those we expected to use, and in which we had no previous experience. Specifically we drifted towards consideration of some rather specific curve and surface fitting and smoothing techniques. We think we have made some progress (otherwise why publish?), but are acutely aware of the conceptual and statistical clumsiness of parts of the work. Readers with sufficient expertise to be offended should regard the monograph as a challenge to do better. The central theme in this book is a somewhat complex algorithm for mortality estimation (detailed at the end of Chapter 4). Because of its complexity, the job of implementing the method is intimidating. Any r...

  15. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

  16. Estimation of respiratory rate from thermal videos of preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Carina Barbosa; Heimann, Konrad; Venema, Boudewijn; Blazek, Vladimir; Czaplik, Michael; Leonhardt, Steffen

    2017-07-01

    Studies have demonstrated that respiratory rate (RR) is a good predictor of the patient condition as well as an early marker of patient deterioration and physiological distress. However, it is also referred as "the neglected vital parameter". This is mainly due to shortcoming of current monitoring techniques. Moreover, in preterm infants, the removal of adhesive electrodes cause epidermal stripping, skin disruption, and with it pain. This paper proposes a new algorithm for estimation of RR in thermal videos of moderate preterm infants. It uses the temperature modulation around the nostrils over the respiratory cycle to extract this vital parameter. To compensate movement artifacts the approach incorporates a tracking algorithm. In addition, a new reliable and accurate algorithm for robust estimation of local (breath-to-breath) intervals was included. To evaluate the performance of this approach, thermal recordings of four moderate preterm infants were acquired. Results were compared with RR derived from body surface electrocardiography. The results showed an excellent agreement between thermal imaging and gold standard. On average, the relative error between both monitoring techniques was 3.42%. In summary, infrared thermography may be a clinically relevant alternative to conventional sensors, due to its high thermal resolution and outstanding characteristics.

  17. Bioavailability of contaminants estimated from uptake rates into soil invertebrates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Straalen, N.M. van; Donker, M.H.; Vijver, M.G.; Gestel, C.A.M. van

    2005-01-01

    It is often argued that the concentration of a pollutant inside an organism is a good indicator of its bioavailability, however, we show that the rate of uptake, not the concentration itself, is the superior predictor. In a study on zinc accumulation and toxicity to isopods (Porcellio scaber) the dietary EC 50 for the effect on body growth was rather constant and reproducible, while the internal EC 50 varied depending on the accumulation history of the animals. From the data a critical value for zinc accumulation in P. scaber was estimated as 53 μg/g/wk. We review toxicokinetic models applicable to time-series measurements of concentrations in invertebrates. The initial slope of the uptake curve is proposed as an indicator of bioavailability. To apply the dynamic concept of bioavailability in risk assessment, a set of representative organisms should be chosen and standardized protocols developed for exposure assays by which suspect soils can be evaluated. - Sublethal toxicity of zinc to isopods suggests that bioavailability of soil contaminants is best measured by uptake rates, not by body burdens

  18. Estimating progression rates for human papillomavirus infection from epidemiological data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Gay, Nigel; Soldan, Kate; Hong Choi, Yoon; Edmunds, William John

    2010-01-01

    A Markov model was constructed in order to estimate type-specific rates of cervical lesion progression and regression in women with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV). The model was fitted to age- and type-specific data regarding the HPV DNA and cytological status of women undergoing cervical screening in a recent screening trial, as well as cervical cancer incidence. It incorporates different assumptions about the way lesions regress, the accuracy of cytological screening, the specificity of HPV DNA testing, and the age-specific prevalence of HPV infection. Combinations of assumptions generate 162 scenarios for squamous cell carcinomas and 54 scenarios for adenocarcinomas. Simulating an unscreened cohort of women infected with high-risk HPV indicates that the probability of an infection continuing to persist and to develop into invasive cancer depends on the length of time it has already persisted. The scenarios and parameter sets that produce the best fit to available epidemiological data provide a basis for modeling the natural history of HPV infection and disease.

  19. Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate; Laboratory Implementation and Current Global Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, W Greg; Jones, Graham R D

    2018-01-01

    In 2002, the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative guidelines for identifying and treating CKD recommended that clinical laboratories report estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with every creatinine result to assist clinical practitioners to identify people with early-stage CKD. At that time, the original Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation based on serum creatinine measurements was recommended for calculating eGFR. Because the MDRD Study equation was developed using a nonstandardized creatinine method, a Laboratory Working Group of the National Kidney Disease Education program was formed and implemented standardized calibration traceability for all creatinine methods from global manufacturers by approximately 2010. A modified MDRD Study equation for use with standardized creatinine was developed. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration developed a new equation in 2009 that was more accurate than the MDRD Study equation at values above 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . As of 2017, reporting eGFR with creatinine is almost universal in many countries. A reference system for cystatin C became available in 2010, and manufacturers are in the process to standardize cystatin C assays. Equations for eGFR based on standardized cystatin C alone and with creatinine are now available from the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration and other groups. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. 3D finite element analysis of stress distributions and strain energy release rates for adhesive bonded flat composite lap shear joints having pre-existing delaminations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parida, S. K.; Pradhan, A. K. [Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar (India)

    2014-02-15

    The rate of propagation of embedded delamination in the strap adherend of lap shear joint (LSJ) made of carbon/epoxy composites has been evaluated employing three-dimensional non-linear finite elements. The delamination has been presumed to pre-exist in the thin resin layer between the first and second plies of the strap adherend. The inter-laminar peel and shear stress distributions have been studied in details and are seen to be predominantly three-dimensional in nature. The components of strain energy release rate (SERR) corresponding to the opening, sliding and cross sliding modes of delamination are significantly different at the two fronts of the embedded delamination. The sequential release of multi-point constraint (MPC) finite elements in the vicinity of the delamination fronts enables to simulate the growth of the delamination at either ends. This simulation procedure can be utilized effectively for evaluation of the status of the structural integrity of the bonded joints.

  1. Estimating the effects of Exchange and Interest Rates on Stock ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The monthly closing returns of All-share index, exchange rates and interest rates ... The interest rate also showed a negative relationship but insignificant at the ... is a prerequisite for attracting investments especially foreign direct investment.

  2. Structure in sheared supercooled liquids: Dynamical rearrangements of an effective system of icosahedra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinney, Rhiannon; Liverpool, Tanniemola B; Royall, C Patrick

    2016-12-21

    We consider a binary Lennard-Jones glassformer whose super-Arrhenius dynamics are correlated with the formation of particles organized into icosahedra under simple steady state shear. We recast this glassformer as an effective system of icosahedra [Pinney et al., J. Chem. Phys. 143, 244507 (2015)]. From the observed population of icosahedra in each steady state, we obtain an effective temperature which is linearly dependent on the shear rate in the range considered. Upon shear banding, the system separates into a region of high shear rate and a region of low shear rate. The effective temperatures obtained in each case show that the low shear regions correspond to a significantly lower temperature than the high shear regions. Taking a weighted average of the effective temperature of these regions (weight determined by region size) yields an estimate of the effective temperature which compares well with an effective temperature based on the global mesocluster population of the whole system.

  3. Standardizing estimates of the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith David L

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR is a commonly reported index of malaria transmission intensity. PfPR rises after birth to a plateau before declining in older children and adults. Studies of populations with different age ranges generally report average PfPR, so age is an important source of heterogeneity in reported PfPR data. This confounds simple comparisons of PfPR surveys conducted at different times or places. Methods Several algorithms for standardizing PfPR were developed using 21 studies that stratify in detail PfPR by age. An additional 121 studies were found that recorded PfPR from the same population over at least two different age ranges; these paired estimates were used to evaluate these algorithms. The best algorithm was judged to be the one that described most of the variance when converting the PfPR pairs from one age-range to another. Results The analysis suggests that the relationship between PfPR and age is predictable across the observed range of malaria endemicity. PfPR reaches a peak after about two years and remains fairly constant in older children until age ten before declining throughout adolescence and adulthood. The PfPR pairs were poorly correlated; using one to predict the other would explain only 5% of the total variance. By contrast, the PfPR predicted by the best algorithm explained 72% of the variance. Conclusion The PfPR in older children is useful for standardization because it has good biological, epidemiological and statistical properties. It is also historically consistent with the classical categories of hypoendemic, mesoendemic and hyperendemic malaria. This algorithm provides a reliable method for standardizing PfPR for the purposes of comparing studies and mapping malaria endemicity. The scripts for doing so are freely available to all.

  4. Validation of estimated glomerular filtration rate equations for Japanese children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gotoh, Yoshimitsu; Uemura, Osamu; Ishikura, Kenji; Sakai, Tomoyuki; Hamasaki, Yuko; Araki, Yoshinori; Hamda, Riku; Honda, Masataka

    2018-01-25

    The gold standard for evaluation of kidney function is renal inulin clearance (Cin). However, the methodology for Cin is complicated and difficult, especially for younger children and/or patients with bladder dysfunction. Therefore, we developed a simple and easier method for obtaining the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using equations and values for several biomarkers, i.e., serum creatinine (Cr), serum cystatin C (cystC), serum beta-2 microglobulin (β 2 MG), and creatinine clearance (Ccr). The purpose of the present study was to validate these equations with a new data set. To validate each equation, we used data of 140 patients with CKD with clinical need for Cin, using the measured GFR (mGFR). We compared the results for each eGFR equation with the mGFR using mean error (ME), root mean square error (RMSE), P 30 , and Bland-Altman analysis. The ME of Cr, cystC, β 2 MG, and Ccr based on eGFR was 15.8 ± 13.0, 17.2 ± 16.5, 15.4 ± 14.3, and 10.6 ± 13.0 ml/min/1.73 m 2 , respectively. The RMSE was 29.5, 23.8, 20.9, and 16.7, respectively. The P 30 was 79.4, 71.1, 69.5, and 92.9%, respectively. The Bland-Altman bias analysis showed values of 4.0 ± 18.6, 5.3 ± 16.8, 12.7 ± 17.0, and 2.5 ± 17.2 ml/min/1.73 m 2 , respectively, for these parameters. The bias of each eGFR equation was not large. Therefore, each eGFR equation could be used.

  5. A New Estimate for Total Offset on the Southern San Andreas Fault: Implications for Cumulative Plate Boundary Shear in the Northern Gulf of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darin, M. H.; Dorsey, R. J.

    2012-12-01

    Development of a consistent and balanced tectonic reconstruction for the late Cenozoic San Andreas fault (SAF) in southern California has been hindered for decades by incompatible estimates of total dextral offset based on different geologic cross-fault markers. The older estimate of 240-270 km is based on offset fluvial conglomerates of the middle Miocene Mint Canyon and Caliente Formations west of the SAF from their presumed source area in the northern Chocolate Mountains NE of the SAF (Ehlig et al., 1975; Ehlert, 2003). The second widely cited offset marker is a distinctive Triassic megaporphyritic monzogranite that has been offset 160 ± 10 km between Liebre Mountain west of the SAF and the San Bernadino Mountains (Matti and Morton, 1993). In this analysis we use existing paleocurrent data and late Miocene clockwise rotation in the eastern Transverse Ranges (ETR) to re-assess the orientation of the piercing line used in the 240 km-correlation, and present a palinspastic reconstruction that satisfies all existing geologic constraints. Our reconstruction of the Mint Canyon piercing line reduces the original estimate of 240-270 km to 195 ± 15 km of cumulative right-lateral slip on the southern SAF (sensu stricto), which is consistent with other published estimates of 185 ± 20 km based on correlative basement terranes in the Salton Trough region. Our estimate of ~195 km is consistent with the lower estimate of ~160 km on the Mojave segment because transform-parallel extension along the southwestern boundary of the ETR during transrotation produces ~25-40 km of displacement that does not affect offset markers of the Liebre/San Bernadino correlation located northwest of the ETR rotating domain. Reconciliation of these disparate estimates places an important new constraint on the total plate boundary shear that is likely accommodated in the adjacent northern Gulf of California. Global plate circuit models require ~650 km of cumulative Pacific-North America (PAC

  6. Tissue strain rate estimator using ultrafast IQ complex data

    OpenAIRE

    TERNIFI , Redouane; Elkateb Hachemi , Melouka; Remenieras , Jean-Pierre

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Pulsatile motion of brain parenchyma results from cardiac and breathing cycles. In this study, transient motion of brain tissue was estimated using an Aixplorer® imaging system allowing an ultrafast 2D acquisition mode. The strain was computed directly from the ultrafast IQ complex data using the extended autocorrelation strain estimator (EASE), which provides great SNRs regardless of depth. The EASE first evaluates the autocorrelation function at each depth over a set...

  7. System and method to estimate compressional to shear velocity (VP/VS) ratio in a region remote from a borehole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, Cung; Nihei, Kurt T; Schmitt, Denis P; Skelt, Christopher; Johnson, Paul A; Guyer, Robert; TenCate, James A; Le Bas, Pierre-Yves

    2012-10-16

    In some aspects of the disclosure, a method for creating three-dimensional images of non-linear properties and the compressional to shear velocity ratio in a region remote from a borehole using a conveyed logging tool is disclosed. In some aspects, the method includes arranging a first source in the borehole and generating a steered beam of elastic energy at a first frequency; arranging a second source in the borehole and generating a steerable beam of elastic energy at a second frequency, such that the steerable beam at the first frequency and the steerable beam at the second frequency intercept at a location away from the borehole; receiving at the borehole by a sensor a third elastic wave, created by a three wave mixing process, with a frequency equal to a difference between the first and second frequencies and a direction of propagation towards the borehole; determining a location of a three wave mixing region based on the arrangement of the first and second sources and on properties of the third wave signal; and creating three-dimensional images of the non-linear properties using data recorded by repeating the generating, receiving and determining at a plurality of azimuths, inclinations and longitudinal locations within the borehole. The method is additionally used to generate three dimensional images of the ratio of compressional to shear acoustic velocity of the same volume surrounding the borehole.

  8. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuan, Wenping; Luo, Yiqi; Li, Xianglan

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models sti...

  9. Simplification of an MCNP model designed for dose rate estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laptev, Alexander; Perry, Robert

    2017-09-01

    A study was made to investigate the methods of building a simplified MCNP model for radiological dose estimation. The research was done using an example of a complicated glovebox with extra shielding. The paper presents several different calculations for neutron and photon dose evaluations where glovebox elements were consecutively excluded from the MCNP model. The analysis indicated that to obtain a fast and reasonable estimation of dose, the model should be realistic in details that are close to the tally. Other details may be omitted.

  10. Simplification of an MCNP model designed for dose rate estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laptev Alexander

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A study was made to investigate the methods of building a simplified MCNP model for radiological dose estimation. The research was done using an example of a complicated glovebox with extra shielding. The paper presents several different calculations for neutron and photon dose evaluations where glovebox elements were consecutively excluded from the MCNP model. The analysis indicated that to obtain a fast and reasonable estimation of dose, the model should be realistic in details that are close to the tally. Other details may be omitted.

  11. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Wenping [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Luo, Yiqi [Department of Botany and Microbiology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Li, Xianglan [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Liu, Shuguang; Yu, Guirui [Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Synthesis Research Center of Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Zhou, Tao [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Bahn, Michael [Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; Black, Andy [Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B. C., Canada; Desai, Ankur R. [Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Department, Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Cescatti, Alessandro [Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; Marcolla, Barbara [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Jacobs, Cor [Alterra, Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Chen, Jiquan [Department of Earth, Ecological, and Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio, USA; Aurela, Mika [Climate and Global Change Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Bernhofer, Christian [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Gielen, Bert [Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; Bohrer, Gil [Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA; Cook, David R. [Climate Research Section, Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, USA; Dragoni, Danilo [Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Dunn, Allison L. [Department of Physical and Earth Sciences, Worcester State College, Worcester, Massachusetts, USA; Gianelle, Damiano [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Grünwald, Thomas [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Ibrom, Andreas [Risø DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Biosystems Division, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark; Leclerc, Monique Y. [Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Griffin, Georgia, USA; Lindroth, Anders [Geobiosphere Science Centre, Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Liu, Heping [Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA; Marchesini, Luca Belelli [Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems, University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy; Montagnani, Leonardo; Pita, Gabriel [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal; Rodeghiero, Mirco [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Rodrigues, Abel [Unidade de Silvicultura e Produtos Florestais, Instituto Nacional dos Recursos Biológicos, Oeiras, Portugal; Starr, Gregory [Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Stoy, Paul C. [Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA

    2011-10-13

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ~3°S to ~70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual

  12. Estimation of Cessation Rates among Danish Users of Benzodiazepines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Støvring, Henrik; Gasse, Christiane

    Background: Widespread and longterm use of benzodiazepines constitute a public health problem. Health care authorities hence advice that use should not exceed three months, in particular for the elderly and patients with a past diagnosis of drug addiction. Objectives: Estimate the shape...

  13. Bayesian nonparametric estimation of hazard rate in monotone Aalen model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Timková, Jana

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 6 (2014), s. 849-868 ISSN 0023-5954 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Aalen model * Bayesian estimation * MCMC Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.541, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/SI/timkova-0438210.pdf

  14. Using genetic data to estimate diffusion rates in heterogeneous landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roques, L; Walker, E; Franck, P; Soubeyrand, S; Klein, E K

    2016-08-01

    Having a precise knowledge of the dispersal ability of a population in a heterogeneous environment is of critical importance in agroecology and conservation biology as it can provide management tools to limit the effects of pests or to increase the survival of endangered species. In this paper, we propose a mechanistic-statistical method to estimate space-dependent diffusion parameters of spatially-explicit models based on stochastic differential equations, using genetic data. Dividing the total population into subpopulations corresponding to different habitat patches with known allele frequencies, the expected proportions of individuals from each subpopulation at each position is computed by solving a system of reaction-diffusion equations. Modelling the capture and genotyping of the individuals with a statistical approach, we derive a numerically tractable formula for the likelihood function associated with the diffusion parameters. In a simulated environment made of three types of regions, each associated with a different diffusion coefficient, we successfully estimate the diffusion parameters with a maximum-likelihood approach. Although higher genetic differentiation among subpopulations leads to more accurate estimations, once a certain level of differentiation has been reached, the finite size of the genotyped population becomes the limiting factor for accurate estimation.

  15. Combining heart rate and accelerometer data to estimate physical fitness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tönis, Thijs; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam Marie Rosé; Hermens, Hermanus J.

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring changes in physical fitness is relevant in many conditions and groups of patients, but its estimation demands substantial effort from the person, personnel and equipment. Besides that, present (sub) maximal exercise tests give a momentary fitness score, which depends on many (external)

  16. Fatigue life assessment of thin-walled welded joints under non-proportional load-time histories by the shear stress rate integral approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bolchoun

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Fatigue life tests under constant and variable amplitude loadings were performed on the tube-tube thin-walled welded specimens made of magnesium (AZ31 and AZ61 alloys. The tests included pure axial, pure torsional and combined in-phase and out-of-phase loadings with the load ratio  RR " ", " " 1  . For the tests with variable amplitude loads a Gaußdistributed loading spectrum with S L 4 5 10  cycles was used. Since magnesium welds show a fatigue life reduction under out-of-phase loads, a stress-based method, which takes this behavior into account, is proposed. The out-of-phase loading results in rotating shear stress vectors in the section planes, which are not orthogonal to the surface. This fact is used in order to provide an out-of-phase measure of the load. This measure is computed as an area covered by the shear stress vectors in all planes over a certain time interval, its computation involves the shear stress and the shear stress rate vectors in the individual planes. Fatigue life evaluation for the variable amplitudes loadings is performed using the Palmgren-Miner linear damage accumulation, whereas the total damage of every cycle is split up into two components: the amplitude component and the out-of-phase component. In order to compute the two components a modification of the rainflow counting method, which keeps track of the time intervals, where the cycles occur, must be used. The proposed method also takes into account different slopes of the pure axial and the pure torsional Wöhler-line by means of a Wöhler-line interpolation for combined loadings

  17. Incorporating a Time Horizon in Rate-of-Return Estimations: Discounted Cash Flow Model in Electric Transmission Rate Cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatterjee, Bishu; Sharp, Peter A.

    2006-01-01

    Electric transmission and other rate cases use a form of the discounted cash flow model with a single long-term growth rate to estimate rates of return on equity. It cannot incorporate information about the appropriate time horizon for which analysts' estimates of earnings growth have predictive powers. Only a non-constant growth model can explicitly recognize the importance of the time horizon in an ROE calculation. (author)

  18. Interfacial shear stress in stratified flow in a horizontal rectangular duct

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorencez, C.; Kawaji, M.; Murao, Y.

    1995-01-01

    Interfacial shear stress has been experimentally examined for both cocurrent and countercurrent stratified wavy flows in a horizontal interfacial shear stress from the measurements were examined and the results have been compared with existing correlations. Some differences were found in the estimated interfacial shear stress from the measurements were examined and the results have been compared with existing correlations. Some differences were found in the estimated interfacial shear stress values at high gas flow rates which could be attributed to the assumptions and procedures involved in each method. The interfacial waves and secondary motions were also found to have significant effects on the accuracy of Reynolds stress and turbulence kinetic energy extrapolation methods

  19. Interfacial shear stress in stratified flow in a horizontal rectangular duct

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorencez, C.; Kawaji, M. [Univ. of Toronto (Canada); Murao, Y. [Tokushima Univ. (Japan)] [and others

    1995-09-01

    Interfacial shear stress has been experimentally examined for both cocurrent and countercurrent stratified wavy flows in a horizontal interfacial shear stress from the measurements were examined and the results have been compared with existing correlations. Some differences were found in the estimated interfacial shear stress from the measurements were examined and the results have been compared with existing correlations. Some differences were found in the estimated interfacial shear stress values at high gas flow rates which could be attributed to the assumptions and procedures involved in each method. The interfacial waves and secondary motions were also found to have significant effects on the accuracy of Reynolds stress and turbulence kinetic energy extrapolation methods.

  20. Estimation of Corporate Credit Rating Quality in Emerging Markets

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    information that is not already readily available to investors. In order to ... is institutionalisation: that is, the increased use of credit ratings in financial ..... three financial ratios are included in the model to account for within-firm default risks.

  1. Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela

    OpenAIRE

    Hilde Bjørnland

    2004-01-01

    To determine whether the real exchange rate is misaligned with respect to its long-run equilibrium is an important issue for policy makers. This paper clarifies and calculates the concept of the equilibrium real exchange rate, using a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model. By imposing long-run restrictions on a VAR model for Venezuela, four structural shocks are identified: Nominal demand, real demand, supply and oil price shocks. The identified shocks and their impulse responses are c...

  2. Estimating the market premium in short term interest rates

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Hans Fredrik

    2006-01-01

    Looking at the term structure in the interest rate market one can’t help notice the evident market premium above the central banks target rate. What factors might decide this premium? By using different variations of simple regression models we see that the model is constantly lagging the real time series. Acknowledging the fact that market clearings often are subject to several equations; we’re better able to develop a sensible model using a simultaneous equilibrium model. The multiple equat...

  3. Insights into the growth rate of spatially evolving plane turbulent free-shear layers from 2D vortex-gas simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryanarayanan, Saikishan; Narasimha, Roddam

    2017-02-01

    Although the free-shear or mixing layer has been a subject of extensive research over nearly a century, there are certain fundamental issues that remain controversial. These include the influence of initial and downstream conditions on the flow, the effect of velocity ratio across the layer, and the nature of any possible coupling between small scale dynamics and the large scale evolution of layer thickness. In the spirit of the temporal vortex-gas simulations of Suryanarayanan et al. ["Free turbulent shear layer in a point vortex gas as a problem in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics," Phys. Rev. E 89, 013009 (2014)], we revisit the simple 2D inviscid vortex-gas model with extensive computations and detailed analysis, in order to gain insights into some of the above issues. Simulations of the spatially evolving vortex-gas shear layer are carried out at different velocity ratios using a computational model based on the work of Basu et al. ["Vortex sheet simulation of a plane canonical mixing layer," Comput. Fluids 21, 1-30 (1992) and "Modelling plane mixing layers using vortex points and sheets," Appl. Math. Modell. 19, 66-75 (1995)], but with a crucial improvement that ensures conservation of global circulation. The simulations show that the conditions imposed at the origin of the free shear layer and at the exit to the computational domain can affect flow evolution in their respective downstream and upstream neighbourhoods, the latter being particularly strong in the single stream limit. In between these neighbourhoods at the ends is a regime of universal self-preserving growth rate given by a universal function of velocity ratio. The computed growth rates are generally located within the scatter of experimental data on plane mixing layers and closely agree with recent high Reynolds number experiments and 3D large eddy simulation studies. These findings support the view that observed free-shear layer growth can be largely explained by the 2D vortex dynamics of

  4. Capture-recapture analysis for estimating manatee reproductive rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, W.L.; Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Runge, M.C.

    2004-01-01

    Modeling the life history of the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an important step toward understanding its population dynamics and predicting its response to management actions. We developed a multi-state mark-resighting model for data collected under Pollock's robust design. This model estimates breeding probability conditional on a female's breeding state in the previous year; assumes sighting probability depends on breeding state; and corrects for misclassification of a cow with first-year calf, by estimating conditional sighting probability for the calf. The model is also appropriate for estimating survival and unconditional breeding probabilities when the study area is closed to temporary emigration across years. We applied this model to photo-identification data for the Northwest and Atlantic Coast populations of manatees, for years 1982?2000. With rare exceptions, manatees do not reproduce in two consecutive years. For those without a first-year calf in the previous year, the best-fitting model included constant probabilities of producing a calf for the Northwest (0.43, SE = 0.057) and Atlantic (0.38, SE = 0.045) populations. The approach we present to adjust for misclassification of breeding state could be applicable to a large number of marine mammal populations.

  5. Shear Resistance Variations in Experimentally Sheared Mudstone Granules: A Possible Shear-Thinning and Thixotropic Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Wei; Xu, Qiang; Wang, Gonghui; Scaringi, Gianvito; Mcsaveney, Mauri; Hicher, Pierre-Yves

    2017-11-01

    We present results of ring shear frictional resistance for mudstone granules of different size obtained from a landslide shear zone. Little rate dependency of shear resistance was observed in sand-sized granules in any wet or dry test, while saturated gravel-sized granules exhibited significant and abrupt reversible rate-weakening (from μ = 0.6 to 0.05) at about 2 mm/s. Repeating resistance variations occurred also under constant shear displacement rate. Mudstone granules generate mud as they are crushed and softened. Shear-thinning and thixotropic behavior of the mud can explain the observed behavior: with the viscosity decreasing, the mud can flow through the coarser soil pores and migrate out from the shear zone. This brings new granules into contact which produces new mud. Thus, the process can start over. Similarities between experimental shear zones and those of some landslides in mudstone suggest that the observed behavior may play a role in some landslide kinematics.

  6. Estimating spontaneous mutation rates at enzyme loci in Drosophila melanogaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukai, Terumi; Yamazaki, Tsuneyuki; Harada, Ko; Kusakabe, Shin-ichi

    1990-04-01

    Spontaneous mutations were accumulated for 1,620,826 allele-generations on chromosomes that originated from six stem second chromosomes of Drosophila melanogaster. Only null-electromorph mutations were detected. Band-electromorph mutations were not found. The average rate of null-electromorph mutations was 2.71 x 10 -5 per locus per generation. The 95% confidence interval (μ n ) was 1.97 x 10 -5 n -5 per locus per generation. The upper 95% confidence limit of the band-electromorph mutation rate (μ B ) was 2.28 x 10 -6 per locus per generation. It appeared that null mutations were induced by movable genetic elements and that the mutation rates were different from chromosome to chromosome. (author)

  7. Curve fitting of the corporate recovery rates: the comparison of Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Rongda; Wang, Ze

    2013-01-01

    Recovery rate is essential to the estimation of the portfolio's loss and economic capital. Neglecting the randomness of the distribution of recovery rate may underestimate the risk. The study introduces two kinds of models of distribution, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density distribution estimation, to simulate the distribution of recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds. As is known, models based on Beta distribution are common in daily usage, such as CreditMetrics by J.P. Morgan, Portfolio Manager by KMV and Losscalc by Moody's. However, it has a fatal defect that it can't fit the bimodal or multimodal distributions such as recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds as Moody's new data show. In order to overcome this flaw, the kernel density estimation is introduced and we compare the simulation results by histogram, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation to reach the conclusion that the Gaussian kernel density distribution really better imitates the distribution of the bimodal or multimodal data samples of corporate loans and bonds. Finally, a Chi-square test of the Gaussian kernel density estimation proves that it can fit the curve of recovery rates of loans and bonds. So using the kernel density distribution to precisely delineate the bimodal recovery rates of bonds is optimal in credit risk management.

  8. Curve fitting of the corporate recovery rates: the comparison of Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongda Chen

    Full Text Available Recovery rate is essential to the estimation of the portfolio's loss and economic capital. Neglecting the randomness of the distribution of recovery rate may underestimate the risk. The study introduces two kinds of models of distribution, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density distribution estimation, to simulate the distribution of recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds. As is known, models based on Beta distribution are common in daily usage, such as CreditMetrics by J.P. Morgan, Portfolio Manager by KMV and Losscalc by Moody's. However, it has a fatal defect that it can't fit the bimodal or multimodal distributions such as recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds as Moody's new data show. In order to overcome this flaw, the kernel density estimation is introduced and we compare the simulation results by histogram, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation to reach the conclusion that the Gaussian kernel density distribution really better imitates the distribution of the bimodal or multimodal data samples of corporate loans and bonds. Finally, a Chi-square test of the Gaussian kernel density estimation proves that it can fit the curve of recovery rates of loans and bonds. So using the kernel density distribution to precisely delineate the bimodal recovery rates of bonds is optimal in credit risk management.

  9. Curve Fitting of the Corporate Recovery Rates: The Comparison of Beta Distribution Estimation and Kernel Density Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Rongda; Wang, Ze

    2013-01-01

    Recovery rate is essential to the estimation of the portfolio’s loss and economic capital. Neglecting the randomness of the distribution of recovery rate may underestimate the risk. The study introduces two kinds of models of distribution, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density distribution estimation, to simulate the distribution of recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds. As is known, models based on Beta distribution are common in daily usage, such as CreditMetrics by J.P. Morgan, Portfolio Manager by KMV and Losscalc by Moody’s. However, it has a fatal defect that it can’t fit the bimodal or multimodal distributions such as recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds as Moody’s new data show. In order to overcome this flaw, the kernel density estimation is introduced and we compare the simulation results by histogram, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation to reach the conclusion that the Gaussian kernel density distribution really better imitates the distribution of the bimodal or multimodal data samples of corporate loans and bonds. Finally, a Chi-square test of the Gaussian kernel density estimation proves that it can fit the curve of recovery rates of loans and bonds. So using the kernel density distribution to precisely delineate the bimodal recovery rates of bonds is optimal in credit risk management. PMID:23874558

  10. A viscoelastic model for the prediction of transcranial ultrasound propagation: application for the estimation of shear acoustic properties in the human skull

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pichardo, Samuel; Moreno-Hernández, Carlos; Drainville, Robert Andrew; Sin, Vivian; Curiel, Laura; Hynynen, Kullervo

    2017-09-01

    A better understanding of ultrasound transmission through the human skull is fundamental to develop optimal imaging and therapeutic applications. In this study, we present global attenuation values and functions that correlate apparent density calculated from computed tomography scans to shear speed of sound. For this purpose, we used a model for sound propagation based on the viscoelastic wave equation (VWE) assuming isotropic conditions. The model was validated using a series of measurements with plates of different plastic materials and angles of incidence of 0°, 15° and 50°. The optimal functions for transcranial ultrasound propagation were established using the VWE, scan measurements of transcranial propagation with an angle of incidence of 40° and a genetic optimization algorithm. Ten (10) locations over three (3) skulls were used for ultrasound frequencies of 270 kHz and 836 kHz. Results with plastic materials demonstrated that the viscoelastic modeling predicted both longitudinal and shear propagation with an average (±s.d.) error of 9(±7)% of the wavelength in the predicted delay and an error of 6.7(±5)% in the estimation of transmitted power. Using the new optimal functions of speed of sound and global attenuation for the human skull, the proposed model predicted the transcranial ultrasound transmission for a frequency of 270 kHz with an expected error in the predicted delay of 5(±2.7)% of the wavelength. The sound propagation model predicted accurately the sound propagation regardless of either shear or longitudinal sound transmission dominated. For 836 kHz, the model predicted accurately in average with an error in the predicted delay of 17(±16)% of the wavelength. Results indicated the importance of the specificity of the information at a voxel level to better understand ultrasound transmission through the skull. These results and new model will be very valuable tools for the future development of transcranial applications of

  11. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  12. Drivers and annual estimates of marine wildlife entanglement rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McIntosh, R.R.; Kirkwood, Roger; Sutherland, D.R.; Dann, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Methods of calculating wildlife entanglement rates are not standardised between studies and often ignore the influence of observer effort, confounding comparisons. From 1997-2013 we identified 359 entangled Australian fur seals at Seal Rocks, south-eastern Australia. Most entanglement materials

  13. Estimating Maternal Mortality Rate Using Sisterhood Methods in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... maternal and child morbidity and mortality, which could serve as a surveillance strategy to identify the magnitude of the problem and to mobilize resources to areas where the problems are most prominent for adequate control. KEY WORDS: Maternal Mortality Rate, Sisterhood Method. Highland Medical Research Journal ...

  14. Reconciling Estimates of Earnings Processes in Growth Rates and Levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daly, Moira; Hryshko, Dmytro; Manovskii, Iourii

    The stochastic process for earnings is the key element of incomplete markets models in modern quantitative macroeconomics. It determines both the equilibrium distributions of endogenous outcomes and the design of optimal policies. Yet, there is no consensus in the literature on the relative...... magnitudes of the permanent and transitory innovations in earnings. When estimation is based on the earnings moments in levels, the variance of transitory shocks is found to be relatively high. When the moments in differences are used, the variance of the permanent component is relatively high instead. We...

  15. Accuracy Rates of Ancestry Estimation by Forensic Anthropologists Using Identified Forensic Cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Richard M; Parks, Connie L; Richard, Adam H

    2017-07-01

    A common task in forensic anthropology involves the estimation of the ancestry of a decedent by comparing their skeletal morphology and measurements to skeletons of individuals from known geographic groups. However, the accuracy rates of ancestry estimation methods in actual forensic casework have rarely been studied. This article uses 99 forensic cases with identified skeletal remains to develop accuracy rates for ancestry estimations conducted by forensic anthropologists. The overall rate of correct ancestry estimation from these cases is 90.9%, which is comparable to most research-derived rates and those reported by individual practitioners. Statistical tests showed no significant difference in accuracy rates depending on examiner education level or on the estimated or identified ancestry. More recent cases showed a significantly higher accuracy rate. The incorporation of metric analyses into the ancestry estimate in these cases led to a higher accuracy rate. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  16. Effect of lemongrass tea consumption on estimated glomerular filtration rate and creatinine clearance rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekpenyong, Christopher E; Daniel, Nyebuk E; Antai, Atim B

    2015-01-01

    The existing research findings regarding the effects of lemongrass (Cymbopogon citratus) tea on renal function indices are conflicting and inconclusive. In the present study, we investigated the effects of infusions prepared from C citratus leaves on creatinine clearance rate (CCr) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in humans. One hundred five subjects (55 men and 50 women) aged 18 to 35 years were randomly assigned to groups set to orally receive infusions prepared from 2, 4, or 8 g of C citratus leaf powder once daily, for 30 days. Serum and urinary levels of urea, creatinine, pH, specific gravity, uric acid, electrolytes, diuretic indices, and eGFR were assessed at days 0, 10, and 30 after the initiation of treatment. Results obtained on days10 and 30 were compared with baseline values. CCr and eGFR decreased significantly at day 30 in both male and female subjects in all the groups and in females treated with infusion prepared from 8 g of C citratus leaf powder for 10 days. At day 10, CCr and eGFR were unchanged in those treated with infusions prepared from 2 or 4 g of the leaf powder, whereas diuretic indices (urine volume, urination frequency, diuretic action, and saliuretic indices) increased above the baseline levels. Serum and urinary creatinine levels significantly increased (P < .05) in both male and female subjects in all the groups. Serum urea significantly increased in the groups treated with infusions prepared from 4 or 8 g of the leaf powder (P < .05) for 30 days. Serum electrolytes remained unchanged, but their urinary levels increased. We observed dose- and time-dependent adverse effects of C citratus on CCr and eGFR. At a high dose or with prolonged treatment with a low dose, eGFR decrease may be followed by a decline in the other renal function indices. Copyright © 2015 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Improving SysSim's Planetary Occurrence Rate Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashby, Keir; Ragozzine, Darin; Hsu, Danley; Ford, Eric B.

    2017-10-01

    Kepler's catalog of thousands of transiting planet candidates enables statistical characterization of the underlying planet occurrence rates as a function of period and radius. Due to geometric factors and general noise in measurements, we know that many planets--especially those with a small-radius and/or long-period--were not observed by Kepler.To account for Kepler's detection criteria, Hsu et al. 2017 expanded on work in Lissuaer et al. 2011 to develop the Planetary System Simulator or "SysSim". SysSim uses a forward model to generate simulated catalogs of exoplanet systems, determine which of those simulated planets would have been seen by Kepler in the presence of uncertainties, and then compares those “observed planets” to those actually seen by Kepler. It then uses Approximate Bayesian Computation to infer the posterior probability distributions of the input parameters used to generate the forward model. In Hsu et al. 2017, we focused on matching the observed frequency of planets by solving for the underlying occurrence rate for each bin in a 2-dimensional grid of radius and period. After summarizing the results of Hsu et al. 2017, we show new results that investigate the effect on occurrence rates from including more accurate completeness products (from the Kepler DR25 analysis) into SysSim.

  18. ESTIMATING RETURN RATE OF HIGHER EDUCATION FUND IN RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Semenikhina V. A.

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the Russian government pays great attention to the field of higher and postgraduate education. But in the Russian scientific literature there are gaps related to the effectiveness of the overall evaluation of the higher education sector. The article dwells upon the problem of interregional income spread of the Russian population. Empirical estimator of difference influence accounting for human capital accumulated in Russian regions on wage levels and maximum increase of total wage levels and population income for 2001-2011 is carried out. Higher education, exceeding the influence of accumulated volume of the main funds, has a great influence on income spread in Russian regions. Besides, increase of higher education fund in Russian regions contributes to the population’s wage increase and growth in income, but at the same time it decreases legal wages. Results of the study extend knowledge of the economics of education of the Russian Federation.

  19. Rates of convergence and asymptotic normality of curve estimators for ergodic diffusion processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.H. van Zanten (Harry)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractFor ergodic diffusion processes, we study kernel-type estimators for the invariant density, its derivatives and the drift function. We determine rates of convergence and find the joint asymptotic distribution of the estimators at different points.

  20. Data on empirically estimated corporate survival rate in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzmin, Evgeny A

    2018-02-01

    The article presents data on the corporate survival rate in Russia in 1991-2014. The empirical survey was based on a random sample with the average number of non-repeated observations (number of companies) for the survey each year equal to 75,958 (24,236 minimum and 126,953 maximum). The actual limiting mean error ∆ p was 2.24% with 99% integrity. The survey methodology was based on a cross joining of various formal periods in the corporate life cycles (legal and business), which makes it possible to talk about a conventionally active time life of companies' existence with a number of assumptions. The empirical survey values were grouped by Russian regions and industries according to the classifier and consolidated into a single database for analysing the corporate life cycle and their survival rate and searching for deviation dependencies in calculated parameters. Preliminary and incomplete figures were available in the paper entitled "Survival Rate and Lifecycle in Terms of Uncertainty: Review of Companies from Russia and Eastern Europe" (Kuzmin and Guseva, 2016) [3]. The further survey led to filtered processed data with clerical errors excluded. These particular values are available in the article. The survey intended to fill a fact-based gap in various fundamental surveys that involved matters of the corporate life cycle in Russia within the insufficient statistical framework. The data are of interest for an analysis of Russian entrepreneurship, assessment of the market development and incorporation risks in the current business environment. A further heuristic potential is achievable through an ability of forecasted changes in business demography and model building based on the representative data set.

  1. A rapid method to estimate Westergren sedimentation rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexy, Tamas; Pais, Eszter; Meiselman, Herbert J

    2009-09-01

    The erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) is a nonspecific but simple and inexpensive test that was introduced into medical practice in 1897. Although it is commonly utilized in the diagnosis and follow-up of various clinical conditions, ESR has several limitations including the required 60 min settling time for the test. Herein we introduce a novel use for a commercially available computerized tube viscometer that allows the accurate prediction of human Westergren ESR rates in as little as 4 min. Owing to an initial pressure gradient, blood moves between two vertical tubes through a horizontal small-bore tube and the top of the red blood cell (RBC) column in each vertical tube is monitored continuously with an accuracy of 0.083 mm. Using data from the final minute of a blood viscosity measurement, a sedimentation index (SI) was calculated and correlated with results from the conventional Westergren ESR test. To date, samples from 119 human subjects have been studied and our results indicate a strong correlation between SI and ESR values (R(2)=0.92). In addition, we found a close association between SI and RBC aggregation indices as determined by an automated RBC aggregometer (R(2)=0.71). Determining SI on human blood is rapid, requires no special training and has minimal biohazard risk, thus allowing physicians to rapidly screen for individuals with elevated ESR and to monitor therapeutic responses.

  2. Estimating permissible /sup 129/I-emission rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huebschmann, W G

    1976-06-01

    A mathematical method of iodine release limitation is presented which, in assessing the radiological effectiveness of /sup 129/I, takes advantage of the fact that the chemical behaviour of /sup 129/I resembles that of /sup 131/I and relies on the already extensive knowledge of the chemical and biological behaviour of /sup 131/I. If this method is used for calculating permissible /sup 129/I emission rates it is stated that no unnecessary restrictions need be imposed on a fuel reprocessing plant and that the grazing season for the pasture-cow-milk pathway can be taken into account. The concept is currently in use at the Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Center and seems to be appropriate for licensing of nuclear fuel reprocessing plants.

  3. Decision Tree Rating Scales for Workload Estimation: Theme and Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wietwille, W. W.; Skipper, J. H.; Rieger, C. A.

    1984-01-01

    The modified Cooper-Harper (MCH) scale has been shown to be a sensitive indicator of workload in several different types of aircrew tasks. The MCH scale was examined to determine if certain variations of the scale might provide even greater sensitivity and to determine the reasons for the sensitivity of the scale. The MCH scale and five newly devised scales were studied in two different aircraft simulator experiments in which pilot loading was treated as an independent variable. Results indicate that while one of the new scales may be more sensitive in a given experiment, task dependency is a problem. The MCH scale exhibits consistent sensitivity and remains the scale recommended for general use. The results of the rating scale experiments are presented and the questionnaire results which were directed at obtaining a better understanding of the reasons for the relative sensitivity of the MCH scale and its variations are described.

  4. Radioisotopic composition of yellowcake: an estimation of stack release rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Momeni, M.H.; Kisieleski, W.E.; Rayno, D.R.; Sabau, C.S.

    1979-12-01

    Uranium concentrate (yellowcake) composites from four mills (Anaconda, Kerr-McGee, Highland, and Uravan) were analyzed for U-238, U-235, U-234, Th-230, Ra-226, and Pb-210. The ratio of specific activities of U-238 to U-234 in the composites suggested that secular radioactive equilibrium exists in the ore. The average activity ratios in the yellowcake were determined to be 2.7 x 10 -3 (Th-230/U-238), 5 x 10 -4 (Ra-226/U-238) and 2 x 10 -4 (Pb-210/U-238). Based on earlier EPA measurements of the release rates from the stacks, the amount of yellowcake released was determined to be 0.1% of the amount processed

  5. Low-sampling-rate ultra-wideband channel estimation using equivalent-time sampling

    KAUST Repository

    Ballal, Tarig

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, a low-sampling-rate scheme for ultra-wideband channel estimation is proposed. The scheme exploits multiple observations generated by transmitting multiple pulses. In the proposed scheme, P pulses are transmitted to produce channel impulse response estimates at a desired sampling rate, while the ADC samples at a rate that is P times slower. To avoid loss of fidelity, the number of sampling periods (based on the desired rate) in the inter-pulse interval is restricted to be co-prime with P. This condition is affected when clock drift is present and the transmitted pulse locations change. To handle this case, and to achieve an overall good channel estimation performance, without using prior information, we derive an improved estimator based on the bounded data uncertainty (BDU) model. It is shown that this estimator is related to the Bayesian linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) estimator. Channel estimation performance of the proposed sub-sampling scheme combined with the new estimator is assessed in simulation. The results show that high reduction in sampling rate can be achieved. The proposed estimator outperforms the least squares estimator in almost all cases, while in the high SNR regime it also outperforms the LMMSE estimator. In addition to channel estimation, a synchronization method is also proposed that utilizes the same pulse sequence used for channel estimation. © 2014 IEEE.

  6. Assessment of Estimation Methods ForStage-Discharge Rating Curve in Rippled Bed Rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Maleki

    2016-02-01

    in a flume located at the hydraulic laboratory ofShahrekordUniversity, Iran. Bass (1993 [reported in Joep (1999], determined an empirical relation between median grain size, D50, and equilibrium ripple length, l: L=75.4 (logD50+197 Eq.(1 Where l and D50 are both given in millimeters. Raudkivi (1997 [reported in Joep (1999], proposed another empirical relation to estimate the ripple length that D50 is given in millimeters: L=245(D500.35 Eq. (2 Flemming (1988 [reported in Joep (1999], derived an empirical relation between mean ripple length and ripple height based on a large dataset: hm= 0.0677l 0.8098 Eq.(3 Where hm is the mean ripple height (m and l is the mean ripple length (m. Ikeda S. and Asaeda (1983 investigated the characteristics of flow over ripples. They found that there are separation areas and vortices at lee of ripples and maximum turbulent diffusion occurs in these areas. Materials and Methods: In this research, the effects of two different type of ripples onthe hydraulic characteristics of flow were experimentally studied in a flume located at the hydraulic laboratory of ShahrekordUniversity, Iran. The flume has the dimensions of 0.4 m wide and depth and 12 m long. Generally 48 tests variety slopes of 0.0005 to 0.003 and discharges of 10 to 40 lit/s, were conducted. Velocity and the shear stress were measured by using an Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter (ADV. Two different types of ripples (parallel and flake ripples were used. The stage- discharge rating curve was then estimated in different ways, such as Einstein - Barbarvsa, shen and White et al. Results and Discussion: In order to investigateresult of the tests, were usedst atistical methods.White method as amaximum valueofα, RMSE, and average absolute error than other methods. Einstein method offitting the discharge under estimated. Evaluation of stage- discharge rating curve methods based on the obtained results from this research showed that Shen method had the highest accuracy for developing the

  7. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of airlift bioreactor: effect of draft tube configurations on hydrodynamics, cell suspension, and shear rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawar, Sanjay B

    2018-01-01

    The biomass productivity of microalgae cells mainly depends on the hydrodynamics of airlift bioreactor (ABR). Thus, the hydrodynamics of concentric tube ABR was initially studied using two-phase three-dimensional CFD simulations with the Eulerian-Lagrangian approach. The performance of ABR (17 L) was examined for different configurations of the draft tube using various drag models such as Grace, Ishii-Zuber, and Schiller-Naumann. The gas holdups in the riser and the downcomer were well predicted using E-L approach. This work was further extended to study the dispersion of microalgae cells in the ABR using three-phase CFD simulations. In this model (combined E-E and E-L), the solid phase (microalgae cells) was dispersed into the continuous liquid phase (water), while the gas phase (air bubbles) was modeled as a particle transport fluid. The effect of non-drag forces such as virtual mass and lift forces was also considered. Flow regimes were explained on the basis of the relative gas holdup distribution in the riser and the downcomer. The microalgae cells were found in suspension for the superficial gas velocities of 0.02-0.04 m s -1 experiencing an average shear of 23.52-44.56 s -1 which is far below the critical limit of cell damage.

  8. Estimation of unemployment rates using small area estimation model by combining time series and cross-sectional data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muchlisoh, Siti; Kurnia, Anang; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Mangku, I. Wayan

    2016-02-01

    Labor force surveys conducted over time by the rotating panel design have been carried out in many countries, including Indonesia. Labor force survey in Indonesia is regularly conducted by Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik-BPS) and has been known as the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas). The main purpose of Sakernas is to obtain information about unemployment rates and its changes over time. Sakernas is a quarterly survey. The quarterly survey is designed only for estimating the parameters at the provincial level. The quarterly unemployment rate published by BPS (official statistics) is calculated based on only cross-sectional methods, despite the fact that the data is collected under rotating panel design. The study purpose to estimate a quarterly unemployment rate at the district level used small area estimation (SAE) model by combining time series and cross-sectional data. The study focused on the application and comparison between the Rao-Yu model and dynamic model in context estimating the unemployment rate based on a rotating panel survey. The goodness of fit of both models was almost similar. Both models produced an almost similar estimation and better than direct estimation, but the dynamic model was more capable than the Rao-Yu model to capture a heterogeneity across area, although it was reduced over time.

  9. Investigation of the existing methodology of value estimation and methods of discount rate estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Plikus, Iryna

    2017-01-01

    The subject of research is the current practice of determining the fair value of assets and liabilities at the present (discounted) cost. One of the most problematic places is the determination of the discount rate, which belongs to the jurisdiction of a professional accountant judgment.The methods of formalization, hypothetical assumption, system approach and scientific abstraction in substantiating the formation of accounting policy with respect to the choice of the discount rate are used i...

  10. Seismic cycle feedbacks in a mid-crustal shear zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melosh, Benjamin L.; Rowe, Christie D.; Gerbi, Christopher; Smit, Louis; Macey, Paul

    2018-07-01

    Mid-crustal fault rheology is controlled by alternating brittle and plastic deformation mechanisms, which cause feedback cycles that influence earthquake behavior. Detailed mapping and microstructural observations in the Pofadder Shear Zone (Namibia and South Africa) reveal a lithologically heterogeneous shear zone core with quartz-rich mylonites and ultramylonites, plastically overprinted pseudotachylyte and active shear folds. We present evidence for a positive feedback cycle in which coseismic grain size reduction facilitates active shear folding by enhancing competency contrasts and promoting crystal plastic flow. Shear folding strengthens a portion of a shear zone by limb rotation, focusing deformation and promoting plastic flow or brittle slip in resulting areas of localized high stress. Using quartz paleopiezometry, we estimate strain and slip rates consistent with other studies of exhumed shear zones and modern plate boundary faults, helping establish the Pofadder Shear Zone as an ancient analogue to modern, continental-scale, strike-slip faults. This feedback cycle influences seismicity patterns at the scale of study (10s of meters) and possibly larger scales as well, and contributes to bulk strengthening of the brittle-plastic transition on modern plate boundary faults.

  11. Effects of the cooling rate on the shear behavior of continuous glass fiber/impact polypropylene composites (GF-IPP)

    KAUST Repository

    Wafai, Husam; Lubineau, Gilles; Yudhanto, Arief; Mulle, Matthieu; Schijve, W.; Verghese, N.

    2016-01-01

    ) are particularly attractive to the automotive industry due to their low cost and good impact resistance. In such composites, the cooling rate varies depending on processing techniques and manufacturing choices. Here, we study the effects of the cooling rate of GF

  12. Common cause failure rate estimates for diesel generators in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steverson, J.A.; Atwood, C.L.

    1982-01-01

    Common cause fault rates for diesel generators in nuclear power plants are estimated, using Licensee Event Reports for the years 1976 through 1978. The binomial failure rate method, used for obtaining the estimates, is briefly explained. Issues discussed include correct classification of common cause events, grouping of the events into homogeneous data subsets, and dealing with plant-to-plant variation

  13. Estimating reaction rate constants: comparison between traditional curve fitting and curve resolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlsma, S.; Boelens, H. F. M.; Hoefsloot, H. C. J.; Smilde, A. K.

    2000-01-01

    A traditional curve fitting (TCF) algorithm is compared with a classical curve resolution (CCR) approach for estimating reaction rate constants from spectral data obtained in time of a chemical reaction. In the TCF algorithm, reaction rate constants an estimated from the absorbance versus time data

  14. Genetic analysis of rare disorders: Bayesian estimation of twin concordance rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Hjelmborg, J.

    2012-01-01

    Twin concordance rates provide insight into the possibility of a genetic background for a disease. These concordance rates are usually estimated within a frequentistic framework. Here we take a Bayesian approach. For rare diseases, estimation methods based on asymptotic theory cannot be applied due

  15. Aerobic exercise acutely prevents the endothelial dysfunction induced by mental stress among subjects with metabolic syndrome: the role of shear rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sales, Allan R K; Fernandes, Igor A; Rocha, Natália G; Costa, Lucas S; Rocha, Helena N M; Mattos, João D M; Vianna, Lauro C; Silva, Bruno M; Nóbrega, Antonio C L

    2014-04-01

    Mental stress induces transient endothelial dysfunction, which is an important finding for subjects at cardiometabolic risk. Thus, we tested whether aerobic exercise prevents this dysfunction among subjects with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and whether an increase in shear rate during exercise plays a role in this phenomenon. Subjects with MetS participated in two protocols. In protocol 1 (n = 16), endothelial function was assessed using brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD). Subjects then underwent a mental stress test followed by either 40 min of leg cycling or rest across two randomized sessions. FMD was assessed again at 30 and 60 min after exercise or rest, with a second mental stress test in between. Mental stress reduced FMD at 30 and 60 min after the rest session (baseline: 7.7 ± 0.4%, 30 min: 5.4 ± 0.5%, and 60 min: 3.9 ± 0.5%, P exercise prevented this reduction (baseline: 7.5 ± 0.4%, 30 min: 7.2 ± 0.7%, and 60 min: 8.7 ± 0.8%, P > 0.05 vs. baseline). Protocol 2 (n = 5) was similar to protocol 1 except that the first period of mental stress was followed by either exercise in which the brachial artery shear rate was attenuated via forearm cuff inflation or exercise without a cuff. Noncuffed exercise prevented the reduction in FMD (baseline: 7.5 ± 0.7%, 30 min: 7.0 ± 0.7%, and 60 min: 8.7 ± 0.8%, P > 0.05 vs. baseline), whereas cuffed exercise failed to prevent this reduction (baseline: 7.5 ± 0.6%, 30 min: 5.4 ± 0.8%, and 60 min: 4.1 ± 0.9%, P exercise prevented mental stress-induced endothelial dysfunction among subjects with MetS, and an increase in shear rate during exercise mediated this effect.

  16. Estimating evolutionary rates using time-structured data: a general comparison of phylogenetic methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duchêne, Sebastián; Geoghegan, Jemma L; Holmes, Edward C; Ho, Simon Y W

    2016-11-15

    In rapidly evolving pathogens, including viruses and some bacteria, genetic change can accumulate over short time-frames. Accordingly, their sampling times can be used to calibrate molecular clocks, allowing estimation of evolutionary rates. Methods for estimating rates from time-structured data vary in how they treat phylogenetic uncertainty and rate variation among lineages. We compiled 81 virus data sets and estimated nucleotide substitution rates using root-to-tip regression, least-squares dating and Bayesian inference. Although estimates from these three methods were often congruent, this largely relied on the choice of clock model. In particular, relaxed-clock models tended to produce higher rate estimates than methods that assume constant rates. Discrepancies in rate estimates were also associated with high among-lineage rate variation, and phylogenetic and temporal clustering. These results provide insights into the factors that affect the reliability of rate estimates from time-structured sequence data, emphasizing the importance of clock-model testing. sduchene@unimelb.edu.au or garzonsebastian@hotmail.comSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Amount of gas hydrate estimated from compressional- and shear-wave velocities at the JAPEX/JNOC/GSC Mallik 2L-38 gas hydrate research well

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, M.W.

    1999-01-01

    The amount of in situ gas hydrate concentrated in the sediment pore space at the JAPEX/JNOC/GSC Mallik 2L-38 gas hydrate research well was estimated by using compressional-wave (P-wave) and shear-wave (S-wave) downhole log measurements. A weighted equation developed for relating the amount of gas hydrate concentrated in the pore space of unconsolidated sediments to the increase of seismic velocities was applied to the acoustic logs with porosities derived from the formation density log. A weight of 1.56 (W=1.56) and the exponent of 1 (n=1) provided consistent estimates of gas hydrate concentration from the S-wave and the P-wave logs. Gas hydrate concentration is as much as 80% in the pore spaces, and the average gas hydrate concentration within the gas-hydrate-bearing section from 897 m to 1110 m (excluding zones where there is no gas hydrate) was calculated at 39.0% when using P-wave data and 37.8% when using S-wave data.

  18. Estimation of the shear viscosity from 3FD simulations of Au + Au collisions at √(sNN) = 3.3-39 GeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, Yu.B.; Soldatov, A.A.

    2016-01-01

    An effective shear viscosity in central Au+Au collisions is estimated in the range of incident energies 3.3 GeV≤√(s NN )≤39 GeV. The simulations are performed within a three-fluid model employing three different equations of state with and without the deconfinement transition. In order to estimate this effective viscosity, we consider the entropy produced in the 3FD simulations as if it is generated within the conventional one-fluid viscous hydrodynamics. It is found that the effective viscosity within the different considered scenarios is very similar at the expansion stage of the collision: as a function of temperature (T) the viscosity-to-entropy ratio behaves as η/s∝1/T 4 ; as a function of the net-baryon density (n B ), η/s∝1/s, i.e. it is mainly determined by the density dependence of the entropy density. The above dependences take place along the dynamical trajectories of Au+Au collisions. At the final stages of the expansion the η/s values are ranged from ∝0.05 at the highest considered energies to ∝.5 at the lowest ones. (orig.)

  19. Estimation of rates-across-sites distributions in phylogenetic substitution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susko, Edward; Field, Chris; Blouin, Christian; Roger, Andrew J

    2003-10-01

    Previous work has shown that it is often essential to account for the variation in rates at different sites in phylogenetic models in order to avoid phylogenetic artifacts such as long branch attraction. In most current models, the gamma distribution is used for the rates-across-sites distributions and is implemented as an equal-probability discrete gamma. In this article, we introduce discrete distribution estimates with large numbers of equally spaced rate categories allowing us to investigate the appropriateness of the gamma model. With large numbers of rate categories, these discrete estimates are flexible enough to approximate the shape of almost any distribution. Likelihood ratio statistical tests and a nonparametric bootstrap confidence-bound estimation procedure based on the discrete estimates are presented that can be used to test the fit of a parametric family. We applied the methodology to several different protein data sets, and found that although the gamma model often provides a good parametric model for this type of data, rate estimates from an equal-probability discrete gamma model with a small number of categories will tend to underestimate the largest rates. In cases when the gamma model assumption is in doubt, rate estimates coming from the discrete rate distribution estimate with a large number of rate categories provide a robust alternative to gamma estimates. An alternative implementation of the gamma distribution is proposed that, for equal numbers of rate categories, is computationally more efficient during optimization than the standard gamma implementation and can provide more accurate estimates of site rates.

  20. Microcephaly Case Fatality Rate Associated with Zika Virus Infection in Brazil: Current Estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunha, Antonio José Ledo Alves da; de Magalhães-Barbosa, Maria Clara; Lima-Setta, Fernanda; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade; Prata-Barbosa, Arnaldo

    2017-05-01

    Considering the currently confirmed cases of microcephaly and related deaths associated with Zika virus in Brazil, the estimated case fatality rate is 8.3% (95% confidence interval: 7.2-9.6). However, a third of the reported cases remain under investigation. If the confirmation rates of cases and deaths are the same in the future, the estimated case fatality rate will be as high as 10.5% (95% confidence interval: 9.5-11.7).

  1. Child mortality estimation: consistency of under-five mortality rate estimates using full birth histories and summary birth histories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romesh Silva

    Full Text Available Given the lack of complete vital registration data in most developing countries, for many countries it is not possible to accurately estimate under-five mortality rates from vital registration systems. Heavy reliance is often placed on direct and indirect methods for analyzing data collected from birth histories to estimate under-five mortality rates. Yet few systematic comparisons of these methods have been undertaken. This paper investigates whether analysts should use both direct and indirect estimates from full birth histories, and under what circumstances indirect estimates derived from summary birth histories should be used.Usings Demographic and Health Surveys data from West Africa, East Africa, Latin America, and South/Southeast Asia, I quantify the differences between direct and indirect estimates of under-five mortality rates, analyze data quality issues, note the relative effects of these issues, and test whether these issues explain the observed differences. I find that indirect estimates are generally consistent with direct estimates, after adjustment for fertility change and birth transference, but don't add substantial additional insight beyond direct estimates. However, choice of direct or indirect method was found to be important in terms of both the adjustment for data errors and the assumptions made about fertility.Although adjusted indirect estimates are generally consistent with adjusted direct estimates, some notable inconsistencies were observed for countries that had experienced either a political or economic crisis or stalled health transition in their recent past. This result suggests that when a population has experienced a smooth mortality decline or only short periods of excess mortality, both adjusted methods perform equally well. However, the observed inconsistencies identified suggest that the indirect method is particularly prone to bias resulting from violations of its strong assumptions about recent mortality

  2. Low-sampling-rate ultra-wideband channel estimation using a bounded-data-uncertainty approach

    KAUST Repository

    Ballal, Tarig

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a low-sampling-rate scheme for ultra-wideband channel estimation. In the proposed scheme, P pulses are transmitted to produce P observations. These observations are exploited to produce channel impulse response estimates at a desired sampling rate, while the ADC operates at a rate that is P times less. To avoid loss of fidelity, the interpulse interval, given in units of sampling periods of the desired rate, is restricted to be co-prime with P. This condition is affected when clock drift is present and the transmitted pulse locations change. To handle this situation and to achieve good performance without using prior information, we derive an improved estimator based on the bounded data uncertainty (BDU) model. This estimator is shown to be related to the Bayesian linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) estimator. The performance of the proposed sub-sampling scheme was tested in conjunction with the new estimator. It is shown that high reduction in sampling rate can be achieved. The proposed estimator outperforms the least squares estimator in most cases; while in the high SNR regime, it also outperforms the LMMSE estimator. © 2014 IEEE.

  3. Convergence Rate Analysis of Distributed Gossip (Linear Parameter) Estimation: Fundamental Limits and Tradeoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kar, Soummya; Moura, José M. F.

    2011-08-01

    The paper considers gossip distributed estimation of a (static) distributed random field (a.k.a., large scale unknown parameter vector) observed by sparsely interconnected sensors, each of which only observes a small fraction of the field. We consider linear distributed estimators whose structure combines the information \\emph{flow} among sensors (the \\emph{consensus} term resulting from the local gossiping exchange among sensors when they are able to communicate) and the information \\emph{gathering} measured by the sensors (the \\emph{sensing} or \\emph{innovations} term.) This leads to mixed time scale algorithms--one time scale associated with the consensus and the other with the innovations. The paper establishes a distributed observability condition (global observability plus mean connectedness) under which the distributed estimates are consistent and asymptotically normal. We introduce the distributed notion equivalent to the (centralized) Fisher information rate, which is a bound on the mean square error reduction rate of any distributed estimator; we show that under the appropriate modeling and structural network communication conditions (gossip protocol) the distributed gossip estimator attains this distributed Fisher information rate, asymptotically achieving the performance of the optimal centralized estimator. Finally, we study the behavior of the distributed gossip estimator when the measurements fade (noise variance grows) with time; in particular, we consider the maximum rate at which the noise variance can grow and still the distributed estimator being consistent, by showing that, as long as the centralized estimator is consistent, the distributed estimator remains consistent.

  4. The reliability of grazing rate estimates from dilution experiments: Have we over-estimated rates of organic carbon consumption by microzooplankton?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Dolan,

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available According to a recent global analysis, microzooplankton grazing is surprisingly invariant, ranging only between 59 and 74% of phytoplankton primary production across systems differing in seasonality, trophic status, latitude, or salinity. Thus an important biological process in the world ocean, the daily consumption of recently fixed carbon, appears nearly constant. We believe this conclusion is an artefact because dilution experiments are 1 prone to providing over-estimates of grazing rates and 2 unlikely to furnish evidence of low grazing rates. In our view the overall average rate of microzooplankton grazing probably does not exceed 50% of primary production and may be even lower in oligotrophic systems.

  5. Estimating Infiltration Rates for a Loessal Silt Loam Using Soil Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Dean Knighton

    1978-01-01

    Soil properties were related to infiltration rates as measured by single-ringsteady-head infiltometers. The properties showing strong simple correlations were identified. Regression models were developed to estimate infiltration rate from several soil properties. The best model gave fair agreement to measured rates at another location.

  6. Estimation of the rate of energy production of rat mast cells in vitro

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Torben

    1983-01-01

    Rat mast cells were treated with glycolytic and respiratory inhibitors. The rate of adenosine triphosphate depletion of cells incubated with both types of inhibitors and the rate of lactate produced in presence of antimycin A and glucose were used to estimate the rate of oxidative and glycolytic...

  7. Clinical use of estimated glomerular filtration rate for evaluation of kidney function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Bo; Lindhardt, Morten; Rossing, Peter

    2013-01-01

    is a significant predictor for cardiovascular disease and may along with classical cardiovascular risk factors add useful information to risk estimation. Several cautions need to be taken into account, e.g. rapid changes in kidney function, dialysis, high age, obesity, underweight and diverging and unanticipated......Estimating glomerular filtration rate by the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease or Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formulas gives a reasonable estimate of kidney function for e.g. classification of chronic kidney disease. Additionally the estimated glomerular filtration rate...

  8. Inverse problem of estimating transient heat transfer rate on external wall of forced convection pipe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, W.-L.; Yang, Y.-C.; Chang, W.-J.; Lee, H.-L.

    2008-01-01

    In this study, a conjugate gradient method based inverse algorithm is applied to estimate the unknown space and time dependent heat transfer rate on the external wall of a pipe system using temperature measurements. It is assumed that no prior information is available on the functional form of the unknown heat transfer rate; hence, the procedure is classified as function estimation in the inverse calculation. The accuracy of the inverse analysis is examined by using simulated exact and inexact temperature measurements. Results show that an excellent estimation of the space and time dependent heat transfer rate can be obtained for the test case considered in this study

  9. Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

    2015-05-01

    The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

  10. Estimation of uncertainty in tracer gas measurement of air change rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizuka, Atsushi; Okuizumi, Yumiko; Yanagisawa, Yukio

    2010-12-01

    Simple and economical measurement of air change rates can be achieved with a passive-type tracer gas doser and sampler. However, this is made more complex by the fact many buildings are not a single fully mixed zone. This means many measurements are required to obtain information on ventilation conditions. In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty of tracer gas measurement of air change rate in n completely mixed zones. A single measurement with one tracer gas could be used to simply estimate the air change rate when n = 2. Accurate air change rates could not be obtained for n ≥ 2 due to a lack of information. However, the proposed method can be used to estimate an air change rate with an accuracy of air change rate can be avoided. The proposed estimation method will be useful in practical ventilation measurements.

  11. Friction Factors in Rough Rod Bundles Estimated from Experiments in Partially Rough Annuli - Effects of Dissimilarities in the Shear Stress and Turbulence Distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjellstroem, B

    1968-12-15

    Experiments with rough surface friction and heat transfer are often made in an annulus with rough inner surface and smooth outer surface. Utilization of data from such experiments for calculation of rough rod bundle fuel elements requires a transformation of the data. For this purpose the method of WB Hall is frequently used. The errors introduced by two of the assumptions on which this method is based, namely the assumptions of zero shear at the radius of maximum velocity and the assumption of no turbulence exchange between the subchannels, are discussed, and the magnitude of the errors is estimated on basis of experiments in a partially rough annulus. It is found that the necessary corrections does not amount to more than about + 10 % for the friction factor and + 15 % for the Reynolds number and the equivalent diameter. The correction for the turbulence exchange alone is of the order of 2-3 %. A comparison of friction factors measured in a rough 48-rod bundle and predicted from measurements in a partially rough annulus was also made. The prediction was 5 % high instead of about 10 % low which could have been expected from the considerations earlier in the report. Explanations for this can be found in the effect of the channel shape or inaccuracies in the rod bundle experiment. Annulus experiments which will allow comparisons with other rod bundle experiments will be run to clarify this.

  12. Estimation of glucose rate of appearance from cgs and subcutaneous insulin delivery in type 1 diabetes

    KAUST Repository

    Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem

    2017-08-31

    Method and System for providing estimates of Glucose Rate of Appearance from the intestine (GRA) using continuous glucose sensor measurements (CGS) taken from the subcutaneous of a diabetes patient and the amount of insulin administered to the patient.

  13. Estimates of Radiation Dose Rates Near Large Diameter Sludge Containers in T Plant

    CERN Document Server

    Himes, D A

    2002-01-01

    Dose rates in T Plant canyon during the handling and storage of large diameter storage containers of K Basin sludge were estimated. A number of different geometries were considered from which most operational situations of interest can be constructed.

  14. Estimation of evaporation rates over the Arabian Sea from Satellite data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, M.V.; RameshBabu, V.; Rao, L.V.G.; Sastry, J.S.

    Utilizing both the SAMIR brightness temperatures of Bhaskara 2 and GOSSTCOMP charts of NOAA satellite series, the evaporation rates over the Arabian Sea for June 1982 are estimated through the bulk aerodynamic method. The spatial distribution...

  15. Type I Error Rates and Power Estimates of Selected Parametric and Nonparametric Tests of Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olejnik, Stephen F.; Algina, James

    1987-01-01

    Estimated Type I Error rates and power are reported for the Brown-Forsythe, O'Brien, Klotz, and Siegal-Tukey procedures. The effect of aligning the data using deviations from group means or group medians is investigated. (RB)

  16. Estimation of glucose rate of appearance from cgs and subcutaneous insulin delivery in type 1 diabetes

    KAUST Repository

    Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem; Al-Matouq, Ali Ahmed

    2017-01-01

    Method and System for providing estimates of Glucose Rate of Appearance from the intestine (GRA) using continuous glucose sensor measurements (CGS) taken from the subcutaneous of a diabetes patient and the amount of insulin administered

  17. On the estimate of the rate constant in the homogeneous dissolution model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Čupera, Jakub; Lánský, Petr

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 39, č. 10 (2013), s. 1555-1561 ISSN 0363-9045 Institutional support: RVO:67985823 Keywords : dissolution * estimation * rate constant Subject RIV: FR - Pharmacology ; Medidal Chemistry Impact factor: 2.006, year: 2013

  18. An estimation of the domain of attraction and convergence rate for Hopfield continuous feedback neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Jinde

    2004-01-01

    In this Letter, the domain of attraction of memory patterns and exponential convergence rate of the network trajectories to memory patterns for Hopfield continuous associative memory are estimated by means of matrix measure and comparison principle. A new estimation is given for the domain of attraction of memory patterns and exponential convergence rate. These results can be used for the evaluation of fault-tolerance capability and the synthesis procedures for Hopfield continuous feedback associative memory neural networks

  19. On researching erosion-corrosion wear in pipelines: the rate and residual lifetime estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranenko, V.I.; Yanchenko, Yu.A.; Gulina, O.M.; Dokukin, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    To base the normative document on calculation of pipelines erosive-corrosive wear (ECW) rate and residual lifetime this research of ECW regularities for pearlitic steel NPP pipelines was performed. The estimates of control data treatment statistical procedures efficiency were presented. The influence of the scheme of piping control on the ECW rate and residual lifetime estimation results was demonstrated. The simplified scheme is valid only in case of complete information. It's usage under data uncertainties leads to essential residual lifetime overstating [ru

  20. Estimated rate of agricultural injury: the Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Chae, Hyeseon; Min, Kyungdoo; Youn, kanwoo; Park, Jinwoo; Kim, Kyungran; Kim, Hyocher; Lee, Kyungsuk

    2014-01-01

    Objectives This study estimated the rate of agricultural injury using a nationwide survey and identified factors associated with these injuries. Methods The first Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey (KFODIS) was conducted by the Rural Development Administration in 2009. Data from 9,630 adults were collected through a household survey about agricultural injuries suffered in 2008. We estimated the injury rates among those whose injury required an absence of more than 4 days. ...

  1. Compressibility effects in the shear layer over a rectangular cavity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beresh, Steven J.; Wagner, Justin; Casper, Katya Marie

    2016-10-26

    we studied the influence of compressibility on the shear layer over a rectangular cavity of variable width in a free stream Mach number range of 0.6–2.5 using particle image velocimetry data in the streamwise centre plane. As the Mach number increases, the vertical component of the turbulence intensity diminishes modestly in the widest cavity, but the two narrower cavities show a more substantial drop in all three components as well as the turbulent shear stress. Furthermore, this contrasts with canonical free shear layers, which show significant reductions in only the vertical component and the turbulent shear stress due to compressibility. The vorticity thickness of the cavity shear layer grows rapidly as it initially develops, then transitions to a slower growth rate once its instability saturates. When normalized by their estimated incompressible values, the growth rates prior to saturation display the classic compressibility effect of suppression as the convective Mach number rises, in excellent agreement with comparable free shear layer data. The specific trend of the reduction in growth rate due to compressibility is modified by the cavity width.

  2. Shear-limited test particle diffusion in 2-dimensional plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderegg, Francois; Driscoll, C. Fred; Dubin, Daniel H.E.

    2002-01-01

    Measurements of test-particle diffusion in pure ion plasmas show 2D enhancements over the 3D rates, limited by shear in the plasma rotation ω E (r). The diffusion is due to 'long-range' ion-ion collisions in the quiescent, steady-state Mg + plasma. For short plasma length L p and low shear S≡r∂ω E /∂r, thermal ions bounce axially many times before shear separates them in θ, so the ions move in (r,θ) as bounce averaged 'rods' of charge (i.e. 2D point vortices). Experimentally, we vary the number of bounces over the range 0.2≤N b ≤10,000. For long plasmas with N b ≤1, we observe diffusion in quantitative agreement with the 3D theory of long-range ExB drift collisions. For shorter plasmas or lower shear, with N b >1, we measure diffusion rates enhanced by up to 100x. For exceedingly small she0ar, i.e. N b ≥1000, we observe diffusion rates consistent with the Taylor-McNamara estimates for a shear-free thermal plasma. Overall, the data shows fair agreement with Dubin's new theory of 2D diffusion in shear, which predicts an enhancement of D 2D /D 3D ≅N b up to the Taylor-McNamara limit

  3. Accurate Angle Estimator for High-Frame-rate 2-D Vector Flow Imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villagómez Hoyos, Carlos Armando; Stuart, Matthias Bo; Lindskov Hansen, Kristoffer

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach for estimating 2-D flow angles using a high-frame-rate ultrasound method. The angle estimator features high accuracy and low standard deviation (SD) over the full 360° range. The method is validated on Field II simulations and phantom measurements using...

  4. Estimates of the rate and distribution of fitness effects of spontaneous mutation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeyl, C.; Visser, de J.A.G.M.

    2001-01-01

    The per-genome, per-generation rate of spontaneous mutation affecting fitness (U) and the mean fitness cost per mutation (s) are important parameters in evolutionary genetics, but have been estimated for few species. We estimated U and sh (the heterozygous effect of mutations) for two diploid yeast

  5. An estimator for the relative entropy rate of path measures for stochastic differential equations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Opper, Manfred, E-mail: manfred.opper@tu-berlin.de

    2017-02-01

    We address the problem of estimating the relative entropy rate (RER) for two stochastic processes described by stochastic differential equations. For the case where the drift of one process is known analytically, but one has only observations from the second process, we use a variational bound on the RER to construct an estimator.

  6. A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quigley, John; Wilson, Kevin J; Walls, Lesley; Bedford, Tim

    2013-12-01

    Typically, full Bayesian estimation of correlated event rates can be computationally challenging since estimators are intractable. When estimation of event rates represents one activity within a larger modeling process, there is an incentive to develop more efficient inference than provided by a full Bayesian model. We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process. To reduce the elicitation burden we introduce homogenization factors to the model and, as an alternative to a subjective prior, an empirical method using the method of moments is developed. Inference under the new method is compared against estimates obtained under a full Bayesian model, which takes a multivariate gamma prior, where the predictive and posterior distributions are derived in terms of well-known functions. The mathematical properties of both models are presented. A simulation study shows that the Bayes linear Bayes inference method and the full Bayesian model provide equally reliable estimates. An illustrative example, motivated by a problem of estimating correlated event rates across different users in a simple supply chain, shows how ignoring the correlation leads to biased estimation of event rates. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. On the use temperature parameterized rate coefficients in the estimation of non-equilibrium reaction rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shizgal, Bernie D.; Chikhaoui, Aziz

    2006-06-01

    The present paper considers a detailed analysis of the nonequilibrium effects for a model reactive system with the Chapman-Eskog (CE) solution of the Boltzmann equation as well as an explicit time dependent solution. The elastic cross sections employed are a hard sphere cross section and the Maxwell molecule cross section. Reactive cross sections which model reactions with and without activation energy are used. A detailed comparison is carried out with these solutions of the Boltzmann equation and the approximation introduced by Cukrowski and coworkers [J. Chem. Phys. 97 (1992) 9086; Chem. Phys. 89 (1992) 159; Physica A 188 (1992) 344; Chem. Phys. Lett. A 297 (1998) 402; Physica A 275 (2000) 134; Chem. Phys. Lett. 341 (2001) 585; Acta Phys. Polonica B 334 (2003) 3607.] based on the temperature of the reactive particles. We show that the Cukrowski approximation has limited applicability for the large class of reactive systems studied in this paper. The explicit time dependent solutions of the Boltzmann equation demonstrate that the CE approach is valid only for very slow reactions for which the corrections to the equilibrium rate coefficient are very small.

  8. National Beef Tenderness Survey-2010: Warner-Bratzler shear force values and sensory panel ratings for beef steaks from United States retail and food service establishments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guelker, M R; Haneklaus, A N; Brooks, J C; Carr, C C; Delmore, R J; Griffin, D B; Hale, D S; Harris, K B; Mafi, G G; Johnson, D D; Lorenzen, C L; Maddock, R J; Martin, J N; Miller, R K; Raines, C R; VanOverbeke, D L; Vedral, L L; Wasser, B E; Savell, J W

    2013-02-01

    The tenderness and palatability of retail and food service beef steaks from across the United States (12 cities for retail, 5 cities for food service) were evaluated using Warner-Bratzler shear (WBS) and consumer sensory panels. Subprimal postfabrication storage or aging times at retail establishments averaged 20.5 d with a range of 1 to 358 d, whereas postfabrication times at the food service level revealed an average time of 28.1 d with a range of 9 to 67 d. Approximately 64% of retail steaks were labeled with a packer/processor or store brand. For retail, top blade had among the lowest (P 0.05) in WBS values between moist-heat and dry-heat cookery methods for the top round and bottom round steaks or between enhanced (contained salt or phosphate solution) or nonenhanced steaks. Food service top loin and rib eye steaks had the lowest (P food service top loin steaks received among the greatest (P food service rib eye steaks received the greatest ratings (P food service steaks were greater (P Choice, and Low Choice groups. The WBS values and sensory ratings were comparable to the last survey, signifying that no recent or substantive changes in tenderness have occurred.

  9. Estimating the effect of treatment rate changes when treatment benefits are heterogeneous: antibiotics and otitis media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Tae-Ryong; Brooks, John M; Chrischilles, Elizabeth A; Bergus, George

    2008-01-01

    Contrast methods to assess the health effects of a treatment rate change when treatment benefits are heterogeneous across patients. Antibiotic prescribing for children with otitis media (OM) in Iowa Medicaid is the empirical example. Instrumental variable (IV) and linear probability model (LPM) are used to estimate the effect of antibiotic treatments on cure probabilities for children with OM in Iowa Medicaid. Local area physician supply per capita is the instrument in the IV models. Estimates are contrasted in terms of their ability to make inferences for patients whose treatment choices may be affected by a change in population treatment rates. The instrument was positively related to the probability of being prescribed an antibiotic. LPM estimates showed a positive effect of antibiotics on OM patient cure probability while IV estimates showed no relationship between antibiotics and patient cure probability. Linear probability model estimation yields the average effects of the treatment on patients that were treated. IV estimation yields the average effects for patients whose treatment choices were affected by the instrument. As antibiotic treatment effects are heterogeneous across OM patients, our estimates from these approaches are aligned with clinical evidence and theory. The average estimate for treated patients (higher severity) from the LPM model is greater than estimates for patients whose treatment choices are affected by the instrument (lower severity) from the IV models. Based on our IV estimates it appears that lowering antibiotic use in OM patients in Iowa Medicaid did not result in lost cures.

  10. Simple approximation for estimating centerline gamma absorbed dose rates due to a continuous Gaussian plume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Overcamp, T.J.; Fjeld, R.A.

    1987-01-01

    A simple approximation for estimating the centerline gamma absorbed dose rates due to a continuous Gaussian plume was developed. To simplify the integration of the dose integral, this approach makes use of the Gaussian cloud concentration distribution. The solution is expressed in terms of the I1 and I2 integrals which were developed for estimating long-term dose due to a sector-averaged Gaussian plume. Estimates of tissue absorbed dose rates for the new approach and for the uniform cloud model were compared to numerical integration of the dose integral over a Gaussian plume distribution

  11. Using field feedback to estimate failure rates of safety-related systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brissaud, Florent

    2017-01-01

    The IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 functional safety standards encourage the use of field feedback to estimate the failure rates of safety-related systems, which is preferred than generic data. In some cases (if “Route 2_H” is adopted for the 'hardware safety integrity constraints”), this is even a requirement. This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals, depending if the failures are detected on-line (called 'detected failures', e.g. by automatic diagnostic tests) or only revealed by proof tests (called 'undetected failures'). Examples show that for the same duration and number of failures observed, the estimated failure rates are basically higher for “undetected failures” because, in this case, the duration observed includes intervals of time where it is unknown that the elements have failed. This points out the need of using a proper approach for failure rates estimation, especially for failures that are not detected on-line. Then, this paper proposes an approach to use the estimated failure rates, with their uncertainties, for PFDavg and PFH assessment with upper confidence bounds, in accordance with IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 requirements. Examples finally show that the highest SIL that can be claimed for a safety function can be limited by the 90% upper confidence bound of PFDavg or PFH. The requirements of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 relating to the data collection and analysis should therefore be properly considered for the study of all safety-related systems. - Highlights: • This paper deals with requirements of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 for using field feedback to estimate failure rates of safety-related systems. • This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals for failures that are detected on-line. • This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals for failures that are only revealed by

  12. Shear rate normalization is not essential for removing the dependency of flow-mediated dilation on baseline artery diameter: past research revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, Greg

    2014-01-01

    A ratio index (FMD%) is used ubiquitously to scale (by simple division) brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (D diff ) in direct proportion to baseline diameter (D base ). It is now known that D diff is inversely proportional to D base rendering FMD% wholly inappropriate. Consequently, FMD% is still substantially dependent on D base . Although this problem is grounded in statistics, normalization of FMD% for the change in arterial shear rate (ΔSR) has been proposed to remove this D base -dependency. It was hypothesized that, if the flow-mediated response is scaled properly to D base in the first place, shear rate normalization would not be needed to remove D base -dependency. Dedicated software (Digitizelt) was employed to extract the data from a seminal study on FMD% normalization. The underlying allometric relationship between D base and peak diameter (D peak ) was described. The re-analyses revealed that the absolute change in arterial diameter was strongly inversely proportional to D base (r= − 0.7, P < 0.0005). The allometric exponent for the D base –D peak relationship was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.78–0.86) rather than the value of 1 needed for appropriate use of FMD%. The allometric approach completely eliminated the originally reported dependency on D base without any need for ΔSR normalization (r=0.0, P=0.96). The correlation between ΔSR and FMD% reduced from 0.69 to 0.37, when adjusted for D base . In conclusion, this new re-analysis of data from an influential study demonstrates that the FMD%–D base correlation is caused by the inappropriate size-scaling properties of FMD% itself. Removal of D base -dependency via FMD%/ΔSR normalization is not essential at all if allometric scaling is applied to isolate the flow-mediated response in the first place. Consequently, the influence of ΔSR on this properly scaled response can also be isolated and quantified accurately without the confounding influence of D base . (paper)

  13. Estimation in adults of the glomerular filtration rate in [99mTc] DTPA renography - the rate constant method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlsen, Ove

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to design an alternative and robust method for estimation of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in [ 99 mTc]-diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid ([ 99 mTc] -DTPA renography with a reliability not significantly lower than that of the conventional Gates' method. Methods: The method is based on renographies lasting 40 min in which regions of interest (ROIs) are manually created over selected parts of certain blood pools (e.g. heart, lungs, spleen, and liver). For each ROI the corresponding time-activity curve (TAC) was generated, decay corrected and exposed to a monoexponential fit in the time interval 10 to 40 min postinjection. The rate constant in min-1 of the monoexponential fit was denoted BETA. Following an iterative procedure comprising usually 5-10 manually created ROIs, the monoexponential fit with the maximum rate constant (BETA max ) was used for estimation of GFR. Results: In a patient material of 54 adult subjects in whom GFR was determined with multiple or one sample techniques with [ 51 Cr]-ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid ([ 51 Cr]-EDTA) the regression curve of standard GFR (GFR std ) (i.e. GFR adjusted to 1.73 m 2 body surface area) showed a close, non-linear relationship with BETA max with a correlation coefficient of 95%. The standard errors of estimate (SEE) were 6.6, 10.6 and 16.8 for GFR std equal to 30, 60, and 120 ml/(min .73 m 2 ), respectively. The corresponding SEE values for almost the same patient material using Gates' method were 8.4, 11.9, and 16.8 ml/(min 1.73 m 2 ). Conclusions: The alternative rate constant method yields estimates of GFR std with SEE values equal to or slightly smaller than in Gates' method. The two methods provide statistically uncorrelated estimates of GFR std . Therefore, pooled estimates of GFR std can be calculated with SEE values approximately 1.41 times smaller than those mentioned above. The reliabilities of the pooled estimate of GFR std separately and of the multiple samples method

  14. Estimating the spread rate of urea formaldehyde adhesive on birch (Betula pendula Roth) veneer using fluorescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Antikainen; Anti Rohumaa; Christopher G. Hunt; Mari Levirinne; Mark Hughes

    2015-01-01

    In plywood production, human operators find it difficult to precisely monitor the spread rate of adhesive in real-time. In this study, macroscopic fluorescence was used to estimate spread rate (SR) of urea formaldehyde adhesive on birch (Betula pendula Roth) veneer. This method could be an option when developing automated real-time SR measurement for...

  15. How to efficiently obtain accurate estimates of flower visitation rates by pollinators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fijen, Thijs P.M.; Kleijn, David

    2017-01-01

    Regional declines in insect pollinators have raised concerns about crop pollination. Many pollinator studies use visitation rate (pollinators/time) as a proxy for the quality of crop pollination. Visitation rate estimates are based on observation durations that vary significantly between studies.

  16. Estimating morbidity rates from electronic medical records in general practice: evaluation of a grouping system.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biermans, M.C.J.; Verheij, R.A.; Bakker, D.H. de; Zielhuis, G.A.; Vries Robbé, P.F. de

    2008-01-01

    Objectives: In this study, we evaluated the internal validity of EPICON, an application for grouping ICPCcoded diagnoses from electronic medical records into episodes of care. These episodes are used to estimate morbidity rates in general practice. Methods: Morbidity rates based on EPICON were

  17. Constrained least squares methods for estimating reaction rate constants from spectroscopic data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlsma, S.; Boelens, H.F.M.; Hoefsloot, H.C.J.; Smilde, A.K.

    2002-01-01

    Model errors, experimental errors and instrumental noise influence the accuracy of reaction rate constant estimates obtained from spectral data recorded in time during a chemical reaction. In order to improve the accuracy, which can be divided into the precision and bias of reaction rate constant

  18. Use of Pyranometers to Estimate PV Module Degradation Rates in the Field: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vignola, Frank; Peterson, Josh; Kessler, Rich; Mavromatakis, Fotis; Dooraghi, Mike; Sengupta, Manajit

    2016-08-01

    This paper describes a methodology that uses relative measurements to estimate the degradation rates of PV modules in the field. The importance of calibration and cleaning is illustrated. The number of years of field measurements needed to measure degradation rates with data from the field is cut in half using relative comparisons.

  19. Environmental isotope balance of Lake Kinneret as a tool in evaporation rate estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, S.

    1979-01-01

    The balance of environmental isotopes in Lake Kinneret has been used to obtain an independent estimate of the mean monthly evaporation rate. Direct calculation was precluded by the inadequacy of the isotope data in uniquely representing the system behaviour throughout the annual cycle. The approach adopted uses an automatic algorithm to seek an objective best fit of the isotope balance model to measured oxygen-18 data by optimizing the evaporation rate as a parameter. To this end, evaporation is described as a periodic function with two parameters. The sensitivity of the evaporation rate estimates to parameter uncertainty and data errors is stressed. Error analysis puts confidence limits on the estimates obtained. Projected improvements in data collection and analysis show that a significant reduction in uncertainty can be realized. Relative to energy balance estimates, currently obtainable data result in about 30% uncertainty. The most optimistic scenario would yield about 15% relative uncertainty. (author)

  20. Fill rate estimation in periodic review policies with lost sales using simple methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cardós, M.; Guijarro Tarradellas, E.; Babiloni Griñón, E.

    2016-07-01

    Purpose: The exact estimation of the fill rate in the lost sales case is complex and time consuming. However, simple and suitable methods are needed for its estimation so that inventory managers could use them. Design/methodology/approach: Instead of trying to compute the fill rate in one step, this paper focuses first on estimating the probabilities of different on-hand stock levels so that the fill rate is computed later. Findings: As a result, the performance of a novel proposed method overcomes the other methods and is relatively simple to compute. Originality/value: Existing methods for estimating stock levels are examined, new procedures are proposed and their performance is assessed.

  1. On the estimation of failure rates for living PSAs in the presence of model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arsenis, S.P.

    1994-01-01

    The estimation of failure rates of heterogeneous Poisson components from data on times operated to failures is reviewed. Particular emphasis is given to the lack of knowledge on the form of the mixing distribution or population variability curve. A new nonparametric epirical Bayes estimation is proposed which generalizes the estimator of Robbins for different times of observations for the components. The behavior of the estimator is discussed by reference to two samples typically drawn from the CEDB, a component event database designed and operated by the Ispra JRC

  2. A matlab framework for estimation of NLME models using stochastic differential equations: applications for estimation of insulin secretion rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortensen, Stig B; Klim, Søren; Dammann, Bernd; Kristensen, Niels R; Madsen, Henrik; Overgaard, Rune V

    2007-10-01

    The non-linear mixed-effects model based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provides an attractive residual error model, that is able to handle serially correlated residuals typically arising from structural mis-specification of the true underlying model. The use of SDEs also opens up for new tools for model development and easily allows for tracking of unknown inputs and parameters over time. An algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the model has earlier been proposed, and the present paper presents the first general implementation of this algorithm. The implementation is done in Matlab and also demonstrates the use of parallel computing for improved estimation times. The use of the implementation is illustrated by two examples of application which focus on the ability of the model to estimate unknown inputs facilitated by the extension to SDEs. The first application is a deconvolution-type estimation of the insulin secretion rate based on a linear two-compartment model for C-peptide measurements. In the second application the model is extended to also give an estimate of the time varying liver extraction based on both C-peptide and insulin measurements.

  3. On Kolmogorov asymptotics of estimators of the misclassification error rate in linear discriminant analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Zollanvari, Amin

    2013-05-24

    We provide a fundamental theorem that can be used in conjunction with Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions to derive the first moments of well-known estimators of the actual error rate in linear discriminant analysis of a multivariate Gaussian model under the assumption of a common known covariance matrix. The estimators studied in this paper are plug-in and smoothed resubstitution error estimators, both of which have not been studied before under Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions. As a result of this work, we present an optimal smoothing parameter that makes the smoothed resubstitution an unbiased estimator of the true error. For the sake of completeness, we further show how to utilize the presented fundamental theorem to achieve several previously reported results, namely the first moment of the resubstitution estimator and the actual error rate. We provide numerical examples to show the accuracy of the succeeding finite sample approximations in situations where the number of dimensions is comparable or even larger than the sample size.

  4. On Kolmogorov asymptotics of estimators of the misclassification error rate in linear discriminant analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Zollanvari, Amin; Genton, Marc G.

    2013-01-01

    We provide a fundamental theorem that can be used in conjunction with Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions to derive the first moments of well-known estimators of the actual error rate in linear discriminant analysis of a multivariate Gaussian model under the assumption of a common known covariance matrix. The estimators studied in this paper are plug-in and smoothed resubstitution error estimators, both of which have not been studied before under Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions. As a result of this work, we present an optimal smoothing parameter that makes the smoothed resubstitution an unbiased estimator of the true error. For the sake of completeness, we further show how to utilize the presented fundamental theorem to achieve several previously reported results, namely the first moment of the resubstitution estimator and the actual error rate. We provide numerical examples to show the accuracy of the succeeding finite sample approximations in situations where the number of dimensions is comparable or even larger than the sample size.

  5. Estimates of particle- and thorium-cycling rates in the northwest Atlantic Ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murnane, R.J.; Sarmiento, J.L.; Cochran, J.K.

    1994-01-01

    The authors provide least squares estimates of particle-cycling rate constants and their errors at 13 depths in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean using a compilation of published results and conservation equations for thorium and particle cycling. The predicted rates of particle aggregation and disaggregation vary through the water column. The means and standard deviations, based on lognormal probability distributions, for the lowest and highest rates of aggregation (β 2 ) and disaggregation (β -2 ) in the water column are 8±27 y -1 2 -1 , and 580±2000 y -1 -2 3 ±10 4 y -1 . Median values for these rates are 2.1 y -1 2 -1 , and 149 y -1 -2 -1 . Predicted rate constants for thorium adsorption (k 1 = 5.0±1.0x10 4 m 3 kg -1 y -1 ) and desorption (k -1 = 3.1±1.5 y -1 ) are consistent with previous estimates. Least squares estimates of the sum of the time dependence and transport terms from the particle and thorium conservation equations are on the same order as other terms in the conservation equations. Forcing this sum to equal zero would change the predicted rates. Better estimates of the time dependence of thorium activities and particle concentrations and of the concentration and flux of particulate organic matter would help to constrain estimates of β 2 and β -2 . 46 refs., 8 figs., 5 tabs

  6. Estimating the effect of a rare time-dependent treatment on the recurrent event rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Abigail R; Zhu, Danting; Goodrich, Nathan P; Merion, Robert M; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2018-05-30

    In many observational studies, the objective is to estimate the effect of treatment or state-change on the recurrent event rate. If treatment is assigned after the start of follow-up, traditional methods (eg, adjustment for baseline-only covariates or fully conditional adjustment for time-dependent covariates) may give biased results. We propose a two-stage modeling approach using the method of sequential stratification to accurately estimate the effect of a time-dependent treatment on the recurrent event rate. At the first stage, we estimate the pretreatment recurrent event trajectory using a proportional rates model censored at the time of treatment. Prognostic scores are estimated from the linear predictor of this model and used to match treated patients to as yet untreated controls based on prognostic score at the time of treatment for the index patient. The final model is stratified on matched sets and compares the posttreatment recurrent event rate to the recurrent event rate of the matched controls. We demonstrate through simulation that bias due to dependent censoring is negligible, provided the treatment frequency is low, and we investigate a threshold at which correction for dependent censoring is needed. The method is applied to liver transplant (LT), where we estimate the effect of development of post-LT End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) on rate of days hospitalized. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Application of Statistical Methods of Rain Rate Estimation to Data From The TRMM Precipitation Radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneghini, R.; Jones, J. A.; Iguchi, T.; Okamoto, K.; Liao, L.; Busalacchi, Antonio J. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The TRMM Precipitation Radar is well suited to statistical methods in that the measurements over any given region are sparsely sampled in time. Moreover, the instantaneous rain rate estimates are often of limited accuracy at high rain rates because of attenuation effects and at light rain rates because of receiver sensitivity. For the estimation of the time-averaged rain characteristics over an area both errors are relevant. By enlarging the space-time region over which the data are collected, the sampling error can be reduced. However. the bias and distortion of the estimated rain distribution generally will remain if estimates at the high and low rain rates are not corrected. In this paper we use the TRMM PR data to investigate the behavior of 2 statistical methods the purpose of which is to estimate the rain rate over large space-time domains. Examination of large-scale rain characteristics provides a useful starting point. The high correlation between the mean and standard deviation of rain rate implies that the conditional distribution of this quantity can be approximated by a one-parameter distribution. This property is used to explore the behavior of the area-time-integral (ATI) methods where fractional area above a threshold is related to the mean rain rate. In the usual application of the ATI method a correlation is established between these quantities. However, if a particular form of the rain rate distribution is assumed and if the ratio of the mean to standard deviation is known, then not only the mean but the full distribution can be extracted from a measurement of fractional area above a threshold. The second method is an extension of this idea where the distribution is estimated from data over a range of rain rates chosen in an intermediate range where the effects of attenuation and poor sensitivity can be neglected. The advantage of estimating the distribution itself rather than the mean value is that it yields the fraction of rain contributed by

  8. Estimating rate of occurrence of rare events with empirical bayes: A railway application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quigley, John; Bedford, Tim; Walls, Lesley

    2007-01-01

    Classical approaches to estimating the rate of occurrence of events perform poorly when data are few. Maximum likelihood estimators result in overly optimistic point estimates of zero for situations where there have been no events. Alternative empirical-based approaches have been proposed based on median estimators or non-informative prior distributions. While these alternatives offer an improvement over point estimates of zero, they can be overly conservative. Empirical Bayes procedures offer an unbiased approach through pooling data across different hazards to support stronger statistical inference. This paper considers the application of Empirical Bayes to high consequence low-frequency events, where estimates are required for risk mitigation decision support such as as low as reasonably possible. A summary of empirical Bayes methods is given and the choices of estimation procedures to obtain interval estimates are discussed. The approaches illustrated within the case study are based on the estimation of the rate of occurrence of train derailments within the UK. The usefulness of empirical Bayes within this context is discussed

  9. Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? Some new evidence from structural estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Wei Dong

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate movements on the conduct of monetary policy in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. We develop and estimate a structural general equilibrium two-sector model with sticky prices and wages and limited exchange rate pass-through. Different specifications for the monetary policy rule and the real exchange rate process are examined. The results indicate that the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Engla...

  10. A CONSISTENT ESTIMATE FOR THE IMPACT OF SINGAPORE'S EXCHANGE RATE ON COMPETITIVENESS

    OpenAIRE

    JANG PING THIA

    2010-01-01

    Services form a larger part of the Singapore economy. However, it is difficult to analyze the exchange rate impact on services due to the lack of price data. Regression of output or export on exchange rate, while highly intuitive, is likely to suffer from the endogeneity problem since Singapore's exchange rate is used as a counter-cyclical policy tool. This results in inconsistent estimates. I propose a novel approach to overcome these limitations by using Hong Kong as a control for Singapore...

  11. Estimation of Leak Rate Through Cracks in Bimaterial Pipes in Nuclear Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jai Hak Park

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The accurate estimation of leak rate through cracks is crucial in applying the leak before break (LBB concept to pipeline design in nuclear power plants. Because of its importance, several programs were developed based on the several proposed flow models, and used in nuclear power industries. As the flow models were developed for a homogeneous pipe material, however, some difficulties were encountered in estimating leak rates for bimaterial pipes. In this paper, a flow model is proposed to estimate leak rate in bimaterial pipes based on the modified Henry–Fauske flow model. In the new flow model, different crack morphology parameters can be considered in two parts of a flow path. In addition, based on the proposed flow model, a program was developed to estimate leak rate for a crack with linearly varying cross-sectional area. Using the program, leak rates were calculated for through-thickness cracks with constant or linearly varying cross-sectional areas in a bimaterial pipe. The leak rate results were then compared and discussed in comparison with the results for a homogeneous pipe. The effects of the crack morphology parameters and the variation in cross-sectional area on the leak rate were examined and discussed.

  12. High mitochondrial mutation rates estimated from deep-rooting Costa Rican pedigrees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madrigal, Lorena; Melendez-Obando, Mauricio; Villegas-Palma, Ramon; Barrantes, Ramiro; Raventos, Henrieta; Pereira, Reynaldo; Luiselli, Donata; Pettener, Davide; Barbujani, Guido

    2012-01-01

    Estimates of mutation rates for the noncoding hypervariable Region I (HVR-I) of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) vary widely, depending on whether they are inferred from phylogenies (assuming that molecular evolution is clock-like) or directly from pedigrees. All pedigree-based studies so far were conducted on populations of European origin. In this paper we analyzed 19 deep-rooting pedigrees in a population of mixed origin in Costa Rica. We calculated two estimates of the HVR-I mutation rate, one considering all apparent mutations, and one disregarding changes at sites known to be mutational hot spots and eliminating genealogy branches which might be suspected to include errors, or unrecognized adoptions along the female lines. At the end of this procedure, we still observed a mutation rate equal to 1.24 × 10−6, per site per year, i.e., at least three-fold as high as estimates derived from phylogenies. Our results confirm that mutation rates observed in pedigrees are much higher than estimated assuming a neutral model of long-term HVRI evolution. We argue that, until the cause of these discrepancies will be fully understood, both lower estimates (i.e., those derived from phylogenetic comparisons) and higher, direct estimates such as those obtained in this study, should be considered when modeling evolutionary and demographic processes. PMID:22460349

  13. Estimation of Circadian Body Temperature Rhythm Based on Heart Rate in Healthy, Ambulatory Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sim, Soo Young; Joo, Kwang Min; Kim, Han Byul; Jang, Seungjin; Kim, Beomoh; Hong, Seungbum; Kim, Sungwan; Park, Kwang Suk

    2017-03-01

    Core body temperature is a reliable marker for circadian rhythm. As characteristics of the circadian body temperature rhythm change during diverse health problems, such as sleep disorder and depression, body temperature monitoring is often used in clinical diagnosis and treatment. However, the use of current thermometers in circadian rhythm monitoring is impractical in daily life. As heart rate is a physiological signal relevant to thermoregulation, we investigated the feasibility of heart rate monitoring in estimating circadian body temperature rhythm. Various heart rate parameters and core body temperature were simultaneously acquired in 21 healthy, ambulatory subjects during their routine life. The performance of regression analysis and the extended Kalman filter on daily body temperature and circadian indicator (mesor, amplitude, and acrophase) estimation were evaluated. For daily body temperature estimation, mean R-R interval (RRI), mean heart rate (MHR), or normalized MHR provided a mean root mean square error of approximately 0.40 °C in both techniques. The mesor estimation regression analysis showed better performance than the extended Kalman filter. However, the extended Kalman filter, combined with RRI or MHR, provided better accuracy in terms of amplitude and acrophase estimation. We suggest that this noninvasive and convenient method for estimating the circadian body temperature rhythm could reduce discomfort during body temperature monitoring in daily life. This, in turn, could facilitate more clinical studies based on circadian body temperature rhythm.

  14. Characterization of adiabatic shear bands in the zirconium alloy impacted by split Hopkinson pressure bar at a strain rate of 6000 s−1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zou, D.L.; Luan, B.F.; Liu, Q.; Chai, L.J.; Chen, J.W.

    2012-01-01

    The adiabatic shear bands formed in the zirconium alloy impacted by split Hopkinson pressure bar at a strain rate of about 6000 s −1 were characterized systemically by means of a high resolution field emission scanning electron microscope equipped with electron backscatter diffraction probe. The results show that the transformed bands were distinguished on the cross-section view of the impacted specimens, and the ultrafine and equiaxed grains formed in the transformed bands were confirmed. The gradient variation of the grains across the transformed bands from the boundary to the center of the bands was observed, and the grains at the center of the transformed bands were finer than other zones. Based on the characterization of the deformed microstructure adjacent to the transformed bands, the formation mechanism of the ultrafine and equiaxed grains in the transformed bands was revealed, and the rotational dynamic recrystallization mechanism should be responsible for the formation of the ultrafine and equiaxed grains in the transformed bands. According to the collection of the cumulative misorientation at different strain levels, the formation and evolution process of the ultrafine and equiaxed grains in the transformed bands were speculated. The microhardness measurements show that high microhardness value in the transformed bands was obtained because of the grain refining, and the large standard deviation of the microhardness at the center of the transformed bands was confirmed due to the gradient microstructural distribution in the bands.

  15. Respiratory rate estimation from the built-in cameras of smartphones and tablets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Yunyoung; Lee, Jinseok; Chon, Ki H

    2014-04-01

    This paper presents a method for respiratory rate estimation using the camera of a smartphone, an MP3 player or a tablet. The iPhone 4S, iPad 2, iPod 5, and Galaxy S3 were used to estimate respiratory rates from the pulse signal derived from a finger placed on the camera lens of these devices. Prior to estimation of respiratory rates, we systematically investigated the optimal signal quality of these 4 devices by dividing the video camera's resolution into 12 different pixel regions. We also investigated the optimal signal quality among the red, green and blue color bands for each of these 12 pixel regions for all four devices. It was found that the green color band provided the best signal quality for all 4 devices and that the left half VGA pixel region was found to be the best choice only for iPhone 4S. For the other three devices, smaller 50 × 50 pixel regions were found to provide better or equally good signal quality than the larger pixel regions. Using the green signal and the optimal pixel regions derived from the four devices, we then investigated the suitability of the smartphones, the iPod 5 and the tablet for respiratory rate estimation using three different computational methods: the autoregressive (AR) model, variable-frequency complex demodulation (VFCDM), and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) approaches. Specifically, these time-varying spectral techniques were used to identify the frequency and amplitude modulations as they contain respiratory rate information. To evaluate the performance of the three computational methods and the pixel regions for the optimal signal quality, data were collected from 10 healthy subjects. It was found that the VFCDM method provided good estimates of breathing rates that were in the normal range (12-24 breaths/min). Both CWT and VFCDM methods provided reasonably good estimates for breathing rates that were higher than 26 breaths/min but their accuracy degraded concomitantly with increased respiratory rates

  16. Study on the Leak Rate Estimation of SG Tubes and Residual Stress Estimation based on Plastic Deformation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young Jin; Chang, Yoon Suk; Lee, Dock Jin; Lee, Tae Rin; Choi, Shin Beom; Jeong, Jae Uk; Yeum, Seung Won [Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-02-15

    In this research project, a leak rate estimation model was developed for steam generator tubes with through wall cracks. The modelling was based on the leak data from 23 tube specimens. Also, the procedure of finite element analysis was developed for residual stress calculation of dissimilar metal weld in a bottom mounted instrumentation. The effect of geometric variables related with the residual stress in penetration weld part was investigated by using the developed analysis procedure. The key subjects dealt in this research are: 1. Development of leak rate estimation model for steam generator tubes with through wall cracks 2. Development of the program which can perform the structure and leakage integrity evaluation for steam generator tubes 3. Development of analysis procedure for bottom mounted instrumentation weld residual stress 4. Analysis on the effects of geometric variables on weld residual stress It is anticipated that the technologies developed in this study are applicable for integrity estimation of steam generator tubes and weld part in NPP.

  17. A Bayesian framework to estimate diversification rates and their variation through time and space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvestro Daniele

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patterns of species diversity are the result of speciation and extinction processes, and molecular phylogenetic data can provide valuable information to derive their variability through time and across clades. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods offer a promising framework to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty when estimating rates of diversification. Results We introduce a new approach to estimate diversification rates in a Bayesian framework over a distribution of trees under various constant and variable rate birth-death and pure-birth models, and test it on simulated phylogenies. Furthermore, speciation and extinction rates and their posterior credibility intervals can be estimated while accounting for non-random taxon sampling. The framework is particularly suitable for hypothesis testing using Bayes factors, as we demonstrate analyzing dated phylogenies of Chondrostoma (Cyprinidae and Lupinus (Fabaceae. In addition, we develop a model that extends the rate estimation to a meta-analysis framework in which different data sets are combined in a single analysis to detect general temporal and spatial trends in diversification. Conclusions Our approach provides a flexible framework for the estimation of diversification parameters and hypothesis testing while simultaneously accounting for uncertainties in the divergence times and incomplete taxon sampling.

  18. Individual differences in rate of encoding predict estimates of visual short-term memory capacity (K).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jannati, Ali; McDonald, John J; Di Lollo, Vincent

    2015-06-01

    The capacity of visual short-term memory (VSTM) is commonly estimated by K scores obtained with a change-detection task. Contrary to common belief, K may be influenced not only by capacity but also by the rate at which stimuli are encoded into VSTM. Experiment 1 showed that, contrary to earlier conclusions, estimates of VSTM capacity obtained with a change-detection task are constrained by temporal limitations. In Experiment 2, we used change-detection and backward-masking tasks to obtain separate within-subject estimates of K and of rate of encoding, respectively. A median split based on rate of encoding revealed significantly higher K estimates for fast encoders. Moreover, a significant correlation was found between K and the estimated rate of encoding. The present findings raise the prospect that the reported relationships between K and such cognitive concepts as fluid intelligence may be mediated not only by VSTM capacity but also by rate of encoding. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. Sequential multi-nuclide emission rate estimation method based on gamma dose rate measurement for nuclear emergency management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xiaole; Raskob, Wolfgang; Landman, Claudia; Trybushnyi, Dmytro; Li, Yu

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Sequentially reconstruct multi-nuclide emission using gamma dose rate measurements. • Incorporate a priori ratio of nuclides into the background error covariance matrix. • Sequentially augment and update the estimation and the background error covariance. • Suppress the generation of negative estimations for the sequential method. • Evaluate the new method with twin experiments based on the JRODOS system. - Abstract: In case of a nuclear accident, the source term is typically not known but extremely important for the assessment of the consequences to the affected population. Therefore the assessment of the potential source term is of uppermost importance for emergency response. A fully sequential method, derived from a regularized weighted least square problem, is proposed to reconstruct the emission and composition of a multiple-nuclide release using gamma dose rate measurement. The a priori nuclide ratios are incorporated into the background error covariance (BEC) matrix, which is dynamically augmented and sequentially updated. The negative estimations in the mathematical algorithm are suppressed by utilizing artificial zero-observations (with large uncertainties) to simultaneously update the state vector and BEC. The method is evaluated by twin experiments based on the JRodos system. The results indicate that the new method successfully reconstructs the emission and its uncertainties. Accurate a priori ratio accelerates the analysis process, which obtains satisfactory results with only limited number of measurements, otherwise it needs more measurements to generate reasonable estimations. The suppression of negative estimation effectively improves the performance, especially for the situation with poor a priori information, where it is more prone to the generation of negative values.

  20. Sequential multi-nuclide emission rate estimation method based on gamma dose rate measurement for nuclear emergency management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xiaole, E-mail: zhangxiaole10@outlook.com [Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, D-76021 (Germany); Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084 (China); Raskob, Wolfgang; Landman, Claudia; Trybushnyi, Dmytro; Li, Yu [Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, D-76021 (Germany)

    2017-03-05

    Highlights: • Sequentially reconstruct multi-nuclide emission using gamma dose rate measurements. • Incorporate a priori ratio of nuclides into the background error covariance matrix. • Sequentially augment and update the estimation and the background error covariance. • Suppress the generation of negative estimations for the sequential method. • Evaluate the new method with twin experiments based on the JRODOS system. - Abstract: In case of a nuclear accident, the source term is typically not known but extremely important for the assessment of the consequences to the affected population. Therefore the assessment of the potential source term is of uppermost importance for emergency response. A fully sequential method, derived from a regularized weighted least square problem, is proposed to reconstruct the emission and composition of a multiple-nuclide release using gamma dose rate measurement. The a priori nuclide ratios are incorporated into the background error covariance (BEC) matrix, which is dynamically augmented and sequentially updated. The negative estimations in the mathematical algorithm are suppressed by utilizing artificial zero-observations (with large uncertainties) to simultaneously update the state vector and BEC. The method is evaluated by twin experiments based on the JRodos system. The results indicate that the new method successfully reconstructs the emission and its uncertainties. Accurate a priori ratio accelerates the analysis process, which obtains satisfactory results with only limited number of measurements, otherwise it needs more measurements to generate reasonable estimations. The suppression of negative estimation effectively improves the performance, especially for the situation with poor a priori information, where it is more prone to the generation of negative values.

  1. Estimation of Uncertainty in Tracer Gas Measurement of Air Change Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atsushi Iizuka

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Simple and economical measurement of air change rates can be achieved with a passive-type tracer gas doser and sampler. However, this is made more complex by the fact many buildings are not a single fully mixed zone. This means many measurements are required to obtain information on ventilation conditions. In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty of tracer gas measurement of air change rate in n completely mixed zones. A single measurement with one tracer gas could be used to simply estimate the air change rate when n = 2. Accurate air change rates could not be obtained for n ≥ 2 due to a lack of information. However, the proposed method can be used to estimate an air change rate with an accuracy of

  2. Estimation of age-specific rates of reactivation and immune boosting of the varicella zoster virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabella Marinelli

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Studies into the impact of vaccination against the varicella zoster virus (VZV have increasingly focused on herpes zoster (HZ, which is believed to be increasing in vaccinated populations with decreasing infection pressure. This idea can be traced back to Hope-Simpson's hypothesis, in which a person's immune status determines the likelihood that he/she will develop HZ. Immunity decreases over time, and can be boosted by contact with a person experiencing varicella (exogenous boosting or by a reactivation attempt of the virus (endogenous boosting. Here we use transmission models to estimate age-specific rates of reactivation and immune boosting, exogenous as well as endogenous, using zoster incidence data from the Netherlands (2002–2011, n = 7026. The boosting and reactivation rates are estimated with splines, enabling these quantities to be optimally informed by the data. The analyses show that models with high levels of exogenous boosting and estimated or zero endogenous boosting, constant rate of loss of immunity, and reactivation rate increasing with age (to more than 5% per year in the elderly give the best fit to the data. Estimates of the rates of immune boosting and reactivation are strongly correlated. This has important implications as these parameters determine the fraction of the population with waned immunity. We conclude that independent evidence on rates of immune boosting and reactivation in persons with waned immunity are needed to robustly predict the impact of varicella vaccination on the incidence of HZ.

  3. Estimating the Backup Reaction Wheel Orientation Using Reaction Wheel Spin Rates Flight Telemetry from a Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizvi, Farheen

    2013-01-01

    A report describes a model that estimates the orientation of the backup reaction wheel using the reaction wheel spin rates telemetry from a spacecraft. Attitude control via the reaction wheel assembly (RWA) onboard a spacecraft uses three reaction wheels (one wheel per axis) and a backup to accommodate any wheel degradation throughout the course of the mission. The spacecraft dynamics prediction depends upon the correct knowledge of the reaction wheel orientations. Thus, it is vital to determine the actual orientation of the reaction wheels such that the correct spacecraft dynamics can be predicted. The conservation of angular momentum is used to estimate the orientation of the backup reaction wheel from the prime and backup reaction wheel spin rates data. The method is applied in estimating the orientation of the backup wheel onboard the Cassini spacecraft. The flight telemetry from the March 2011 prime and backup RWA swap activity on Cassini is used to obtain the best estimate for the backup reaction wheel orientation.

  4. ESR dating of elephant teeth and radiation dose rate estimation in soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taisoo Chong; Ohta, Hiroyuki; Nakashima, Yoshiyuki; Iida, Takao; Saisho, Hideo

    1989-01-01

    Chemical analysis of 238 U, 232 Th and 40 K in the dentine as well as enamel of elephant tooth fossil has been carried out in order to estimate the internal absorbed dose rate of the specimens, which was estimated to be (39±4) mrad/y on the assumption of early uptake model of radionuclides. The external radiation dose rate in the soil including the contribution from cosmic rays was also estimated to be (175±18) mrad/y with the help of γ-ray spectroscopic techniques of the soil samples in which the specimens were buried. The 60 Co γ-ray equivalent accumulated dose of (2±0.2) x 10 4 rad for the tooth enamel gave ''ESR age'' of (9±2) x 10 4 y, which falls in the geologically estimated range between 3 x 10 4 and 30 x 10 4 y before the present. (author)

  5. Minimax Rate-optimal Estimation of High-dimensional Covariance Matrices with Incomplete Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, T Tony; Zhang, Anru

    2016-09-01

    Missing data occur frequently in a wide range of applications. In this paper, we consider estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices in the presence of missing observations under a general missing completely at random model in the sense that the missingness is not dependent on the values of the data. Based on incomplete data, estimators for bandable and sparse covariance matrices are proposed and their theoretical and numerical properties are investigated. Minimax rates of convergence are established under the spectral norm loss and the proposed estimators are shown to be rate-optimal under mild regularity conditions. Simulation studies demonstrate that the estimators perform well numerically. The methods are also illustrated through an application to data from four ovarian cancer studies. The key technical tools developed in this paper are of independent interest and potentially useful for a range of related problems in high-dimensional statistical inference with missing data.

  6. Minimax Rate-optimal Estimation of High-dimensional Covariance Matrices with Incomplete Data*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, T. Tony; Zhang, Anru

    2016-01-01

    Missing data occur frequently in a wide range of applications. In this paper, we consider estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices in the presence of missing observations under a general missing completely at random model in the sense that the missingness is not dependent on the values of the data. Based on incomplete data, estimators for bandable and sparse covariance matrices are proposed and their theoretical and numerical properties are investigated. Minimax rates of convergence are established under the spectral norm loss and the proposed estimators are shown to be rate-optimal under mild regularity conditions. Simulation studies demonstrate that the estimators perform well numerically. The methods are also illustrated through an application to data from four ovarian cancer studies. The key technical tools developed in this paper are of independent interest and potentially useful for a range of related problems in high-dimensional statistical inference with missing data. PMID:27777471

  7. Estimating blue whale skin isotopic incorporation rates and baleen growth rates: Implications for assessing diet and movement patterns in mysticetes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busquets-Vass, Geraldine; Newsome, Seth D.; Calambokidis, John; Serra-Valente, Gabriela; Jacobsen, Jeff K.; Aguíñiga-García, Sergio; Gendron, Diane

    2017-01-01

    Stable isotope analysis in mysticete skin and baleen plates has been repeatedly used to assess diet and movement patterns. Accurate interpretation of isotope data depends on understanding isotopic incorporation rates for metabolically active tissues and growth rates for metabolically inert tissues. The aim of this research was to estimate isotopic incorporation rates in blue whale skin and baleen growth rates by using natural gradients in baseline isotope values between oceanic regions. Nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) isotope values of blue whale skin and potential prey were analyzed from three foraging zones (Gulf of California, California Current System, and Costa Rica Dome) in the northeast Pacific from 1996–2015. We also measured δ15N and δ13C values along the lengths of baleen plates collected from six blue whales stranded in the 1980s and 2000s. Skin was separated into three strata: basale, externum, and sloughed skin. A mean (±SD) skin isotopic incorporation rate of 163±91 days was estimated by fitting a generalized additive model of the seasonal trend in δ15N values of skin strata collected in the Gulf of California and the California Current System. A mean (±SD) baleen growth rate of 15.5±2.2 cm y-1 was estimated by using seasonal oscillations in δ15N values from three whales. These oscillations also showed that individual whales have a high fidelity to distinct foraging zones in the northeast Pacific across years. The absence of oscillations in δ15N values of baleen sub-samples from three male whales suggests these individuals remained within a specific zone for several years prior to death. δ13C values of both whale tissues (skin and baleen) and potential prey were not distinct among foraging zones. Our results highlight the importance of considering tissue isotopic incorporation and growth rates when studying migratory mysticetes and provide new insights into the individual movement strategies of blue whales. PMID:28562625

  8. Oxygen transfer rate estimation in oxidation ditches from clean water measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abusam, A; Keesman, K J; Meinema, K; Van Straten, G

    2001-06-01

    Standard methods for the determination of oxygen transfer rate are based on assumptions that are not valid for oxidation ditches. This paper presents a realistic and simple new method to be used in the estimation of oxygen transfer rate in oxidation ditches from clean water measurements. The new method uses a loop-of-CSTRs model, which can be easily incorporated within control algorithms, for modelling oxidation ditches. Further, this method assumes zero oxygen transfer rates (KLa) in the unaerated CSTRs. Application of a formal estimation procedure to real data revealed that the aeration constant (k = KLaVA, where VA is the volume of the aerated CSTR) can be determined significantly more accurately than KLa and VA. Therefore, the new method estimates k instead of KLa. From application to real data, this method proved to be more accurate than the commonly used Dutch standard method (STORA, 1980).

  9. Lichen forage ingestion rates of free-roaming caribou estimated with fallout cesium-137

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, W.C.; Whicker, F.W.; Lipscomb, J.F.

    1975-01-01

    Lichen forage ingestion rates of free-roaming caribou herds in northern Alaska during 1963 to 1970 were estimated by applying a two-compartment, eight parameter cesium-137 kinetics model to measured fallout 137 Cs concentrations in lichen and caribou. Estimates for winter equilibrium periods (January to April) for each year ranged from 3.7 to 6.9 kg dry weight lichens per day for adult female caribou. Further refinement of these estimations were obtained by calculating probabilistic distributions of intake rates by stochastic processes based upon the mean and standard error intervals of the eight parameters during 1965 and 1968. A computer program generated 1,000 randomly sampled values within each of the eight parameter distributions. Results substantiate the contention that lichen forage ingestion rates by free-roaming caribou are significantly greater than previously held

  10. Time delay estimation in a reverberant environment by low rate sampling of impulsive acoustic sources

    KAUST Repository

    Omer, Muhammad

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents a new method of time delay estimation (TDE) using low sample rates of an impulsive acoustic source in a room environment. The proposed method finds the time delay from the room impulse response (RIR) which makes it robust against room reverberations. The RIR is considered a sparse phenomenon and a recently proposed sparse signal reconstruction technique called orthogonal clustering (OC) is utilized for its estimation from the low rate sampled received signal. The arrival time of the direct path signal at a pair of microphones is identified from the estimated RIR and their difference yields the desired time delay. Low sampling rates reduce the hardware and computational complexity and decrease the communication between the microphones and the centralized location. The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by numerical simulations and experimental results. © 2012 IEEE.

  11. Estimation of water erosion rates using RUSLE3D in Alicante province (Spain)

    OpenAIRE

    Garcia Rodríguez, Jose Luis; Giménez Suárez, Martín Cruz; Arraiza Bermudez-Cañete, Maria Paz

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was the estimation of current and potential water erosion rates in Alicante Province using RUSLE3D (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation-3D) model with Geographical Information System (GIS) support by request from the Valencia Waste Energy Use. RUSLE3D uses a new methodology for topographic factor estimation (LS factor) based on the impact of flow convergence allowing better assessment of sediment distribution detached by water erosion. In RUSLE3D equation, the effec...

  12. Optimization of hierarchical 3DRS motion estimators for picture rate conversion

    OpenAIRE

    Heinrich, A.; Bartels, C.L.L.; Vleuten, van der, R.J.; Cordes, C.N.; Haan, de, G.

    2010-01-01

    There is a continuous pressure to lower the implementation complexity and improve the quality of motion-compensated picture rate conversion methods. Since the concept of hierarchy can be advantageously applied to many motion estimation methods, we have extended and improved the current state-of-the-art motion estimation method in this field, 3-Dimensional Recursive Search (3DRS), with this concept. We have explored the extensive parameter space and present an analysis of the importance and in...

  13. Demographic aspects of Chrysomya megacephala (Diptera, Calliphoridae) adults maintained under experimental conditions: reproductive rate estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Carvalho, Marcelo Henrique de; Von Zuben, Claudio José

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this work was to evaluate some aspects of the populational ecology of Chrysomya megacephala, analyzing demographic aspects of adults kept under experimental conditions. Cages of C. megacephala adults were prepared with four different larval densities (100, 200, 400 and 800). For each cage, two tables were made: one with demographic parameters for the life expectancy estimate at the initial age (e0), and another with the reproductive rate and average reproduction age estimates...

  14. A New Approach for Mobile Advertising Click-Through Rate Estimation Based on Deep Belief Nets

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Jie-Hao; Zhao, Zi-Qian; Shi, Ji-Yun; Zhao, Chong

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, with the rapid development of mobile Internet and its business applications, mobile advertising Click-Through Rate (CTR) estimation has become a hot research direction in the field of computational advertising, which is used to achieve accurate advertisement delivery for the best benefits in the three-side game between media, advertisers, and audiences. Current research on the estimation of CTR mainly uses the methods and models of machine learning, such as linear model or re...

  15. Estimating the Effective Lower Bound for the Czech National Bank's Policy Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Kolcunova, Dominika; Havranek, Tomas

    2018-01-01

    The paper focuses on the estimation of the effective lower bound for the Czech National Bank's policy rate. The effective lower bound is determined by the value below which holding and using cash would be more convenient than deposits with negative yields. This bound is approximated based on storage, the insurance and transportation costs of cash and the costs associated with the loss of the convenience of cashless payments and complemented with the estimate based on interest charges, which p...

  16. Simultaneous use of mark-recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate survival, movement, and capture rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, L.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Krementz, D.G.

    2000-01-01

    Biologists often estimate separate survival and movement rates from radio-telemetry and mark-recapture data from the same study population. We describe a method for combining these data types in a single model to obtain joint, potentially less biased estimates of survival and movement that use all available data. We furnish an example using wood thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) captured at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia in 1996. The model structure allows estimation of survival and capture probabilities, as well as estimation of movements away from and into the study area. In addition, the model structure provides many possibilities for hypothesis testing. Using the combined model structure, we estimated that wood thrush weekly survival was 0.989 ? 0.007 ( ?SE). Survival rates of banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [S_radioed, ~ S_banded]=log [S hat _radioed/ S hat _banded]=0.0239 ? 0.0435). Fidelity rates (weekly probability of remaining in a stratum) did not differ between geographic strata (psi hat=0.911 ? 0.020; alpha hat [psi11, psi22]=0.0161 ? 0.047), and recapture rates ( = 0.097 ? 0.016) banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [p_radioed, p_banded]=0.145 ? 0.655). Combining these data types in a common model resulted in more precise estimates of movement and recapture rates than separate estimation, but ability to detect stratum or mark-specific differences in parameters was week. We conducted simulation trials to investigate the effects of varying study designs on parameter accuracy and statistical power to detect important differences. Parameter accuracy was high (relative bias [RBIAS] inference from this model, study designs should seek a minimum of 25 animals of each marking type observed (marked or observed via telemetry) in each time period and geographic stratum.

  17. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian J Fiske

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5, and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high

  18. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

    2008-08-28

    Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

  19. Using 210Pb measurements to estimate sedimentation rates on river floodplains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, P.; Walling, D.E.

    2012-01-01

    Growing interest in the dynamics of floodplain evolution and the important role of overbank sedimentation on river floodplains as a sediment sink has focused attention on the need to document contemporary and recent rates of overbank sedimentation. The potential for using the fallout radionuclides 137 Cs and excess 210 Pb to estimate medium-term (10–10 2 years) sedimentation rates on river floodplains has attracted increasing attention. Most studies that have successfully used fallout radionuclides for this purpose have focused on the use of 137 Cs. However, the use of excess 210 Pb potentially offers a number of advantages over 137 Cs measurements. Most existing investigations that have used excess 210 Pb measurements to document sedimentation rates have, however, focused on lakes rather than floodplains and the transfer of the approach, and particularly the models used to estimate the sedimentation rate, to river floodplains involves a number of uncertainties, which require further attention. This contribution reports the results of an investigation of overbank sedimentation rates on the floodplains of several UK rivers. Sediment cores were collected from seven floodplain sites representative of different environmental conditions and located in different areas of England and Wales. Measurements of excess 210 Pb and 137 Cs were made on these cores. The 210 Pb measurements have been used to estimate sedimentation rates and the results obtained by using different models have been compared. The 137 Cs measurements have also been used to provide an essentially independent time marker for validation purposes. In using the 210 Pb measurements, particular attention was directed to the problem of obtaining reliable estimates of the supported and excess or unsupported components of the total 210 Pb activity of sediment samples. Although there was a reasonable degree of consistency between the estimates of sedimentation rate provided by the 137 Cs and excess 210 Pb

  20. Methods for estimating disease transmission rates: Evaluating the precision of Poisson regression and two novel methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Gussmann, Maya Katrin

    2017-01-01

    the transmission rate. We use data from the two simulation models and vary the sampling intervals and the size of the population sampled. We devise two new methods to determine transmission rate, and compare these to the frequently used Poisson regression method in both epidemic and endemic situations. For most...... tested scenarios these new methods perform similar or better than Poisson regression, especially in the case of long sampling intervals. We conclude that transmission rate estimates are easily biased, which is important to take into account when using these rates in simulation models....

  1. Modeling and estimating the jump risk of exchange rates: Applications to RMB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yiming; Tong, Hanfei

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we propose a new type of continuous-time stochastic volatility model, SVDJ, for the spot exchange rate of RMB, and other foreign currencies. In the model, we assume that the change of exchange rate can be decomposed into two components. One is the normally small-cope innovation driven by the diffusion motion; the other is a large drop or rise engendered by the Poisson counting process. Furthermore, we develop a MCMC method to estimate our model. Empirical results indicate the significant existence of jumps in the exchange rate. Jump components explain a large proportion of the exchange rate change.

  2. Fast maximum likelihood estimation of mutation rates using a birth-death process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaowei; Zhu, Hongxiao

    2015-02-07

    Since fluctuation analysis was first introduced by Luria and Delbrück in 1943, it has been widely used to make inference about spontaneous mutation rates in cultured cells. Under certain model assumptions, the probability distribution of the number of mutants that appear in a fluctuation experiment can be derived explicitly, which provides the basis of mutation rate estimation. It has been shown that, among various existing estimators, the maximum likelihood estimator usually demonstrates some desirable properties such as consistency and lower mean squared error. However, its application in real experimental data is often hindered by slow computation of likelihood due to the recursive form of the mutant-count distribution. We propose a fast maximum likelihood estimator of mutation rates, MLE-BD, based on a birth-death process model with non-differential growth assumption. Simulation studies demonstrate that, compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimator derived from the Luria-Delbrück distribution, MLE-BD achieves substantial improvement on computational speed and is applicable to arbitrarily large number of mutants. In addition, it still retains good accuracy on point estimation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. State estimation for Markov-type genetic regulatory networks with delays and uncertain mode transition rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Jinling; Lam, James; Wang Zidong

    2009-01-01

    This Letter is concerned with the robust state estimation problem for uncertain time-delay Markovian jumping genetic regulatory networks (GRNs) with SUM logic, where the uncertainties enter into both the network parameters and the mode transition rate. The nonlinear functions describing the feedback regulation are assumed to satisfy the sector-like conditions. The main purpose of the problem addressed is to design a linear estimator to approximate the true concentrations of the mRNA and protein through available measurement outputs. By resorting to the Lyapunov functional method and some stochastic analysis tools, it is shown that if a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) is feasible, the desired state estimator, that can ensure the estimation error dynamics to be globally robustly asymptotically stable in the mean square, exists. The obtained LMI conditions are dependent on both the lower and the upper bounds of the delays. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed estimation schemes.

  4. Comparison of direct shear and simple shear responses of municipal solid waste in USA

    KAUST Repository

    Fei, Xunchang; Zekkos, Dimitrios

    2017-01-01

    Although large-size simple shear (SS) testing of municipal solid waste (MSW) may arguably provide a more realistic estimate of the shear strength (τ ) of MSW than the most commonly used direct shear (DS) testing, a systematic comparison between

  5. Experimental design and estimation of growth rate distributions in size-structured shrimp populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, H T; Davis, Jimena L; Ernstberger, Stacey L; Hu, Shuhua; Artimovich, Elena; Dhar, Arun K

    2009-01-01

    We discuss inverse problem results for problems involving the estimation of probability distributions using aggregate data for growth in populations. We begin with a mathematical model describing variability in the early growth process of size-structured shrimp populations and discuss a computational methodology for the design of experiments to validate the model and estimate the growth-rate distributions in shrimp populations. Parameter-estimation findings using experimental data from experiments so designed for shrimp populations cultivated at Advanced BioNutrition Corporation are presented, illustrating the usefulness of mathematical and statistical modeling in understanding the uncertainty in the growth dynamics of such populations

  6. Estimation of exposure to 222Rn from the excretion rates of 21πPb

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holtzman, R.B.; Rundo, J.

    1981-01-01

    A model is proposed with which estimates of exposure to 227 Rn and its daughter products may be made from urinary excretion rates of 210 Pb. It is assumed that 20% of all the 210 Pb inhaled reaches the blood and that 50% of the endogenous excretion is through the urine. The estimates from the model are compared with the results of measurements on a subject residing in a house with high levels of radon. Whole body radioactivity and excretion data were consistent with the model, but the estimates of exposure (WL) were higher than those measured with an Environmental Working Level Monitor

  7. Two-component mixture cure rate model with spline estimated nonparametric components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lu; Du, Pang; Liang, Hua

    2012-09-01

    In some survival analysis of medical studies, there are often long-term survivors who can be considered as permanently cured. The goals in these studies are to estimate the noncured probability of the whole population and the hazard rate of the susceptible subpopulation. When covariates are present as often happens in practice, to understand covariate effects on the noncured probability and hazard rate is of equal importance. The existing methods are limited to parametric and semiparametric models. We propose a two-component mixture cure rate model with nonparametric forms for both the cure probability and the hazard rate function. Identifiability of the model is guaranteed by an additive assumption that allows no time-covariate interactions in the logarithm of hazard rate. Estimation is carried out by an expectation-maximization algorithm on maximizing a penalized likelihood. For inferential purpose, we apply the Louis formula to obtain point-wise confidence intervals for noncured probability and hazard rate. Asymptotic convergence rates of our function estimates are established. We then evaluate the proposed method by extensive simulations. We analyze the survival data from a melanoma study and find interesting patterns for this study. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  8. Evolution of allowable stresses in shear for lumber

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert L. Ethington; William L. Galligan; Henry M. Montrey; Alan D. Freas

    1979-01-01

    This paper surveys research leading to allowable shear stress parallel to grain for lumber. In early flexure tests of lumber, some pieces failed in shear. The estimated shear stress at time of failure was generally lower than shear strength measured on small, clear, straight-grained specimens. This and other engineering observations gave rise to adjustments that...

  9. Annual survival rate estimate of satellite transmitter–marked eastern population greater sandhill cranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fronczak, David L.; Andersen, David E.; Hanna, Everett E.; Cooper, Thomas R.

    2015-01-01

    Several surveys have documented the increasing population size and geographic distribution of Eastern Population greater sandhill cranes Grus canadensis tabida since the 1960s. Sport hunting of this population of sandhill cranes started in 2012 following the provisions of the Eastern Population Sandhill Crane Management Plan. However, there are currently no published estimates of Eastern Population sandhill crane survival rate that can be used to inform harvest management. As part of two studies of Eastern Population sandhill crane migration, we deployed solar-powered global positioning system platform transmitting terminals on Eastern Population sandhill cranes (n  =  42) at key concentration areas from 2009 to 2012. We estimated an annual survival rate for Eastern Population sandhill cranes from data resulting from monitoring these cranes by using the known-fates model in the MARK program. Estimated annual survival rate for adult Eastern Population sandhill cranes was 0.950 (95% confidence interval  =  0.885–0.979) during December 2009–August 2014. All fatalities (n  =  5) occurred after spring migration in late spring and early summer. We were unable to determine cause of death for crane fatalities in our study. Our survival rate estimate will be useful when combined with other population parameters such as the population index derived from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fall survey, harvest, and recruitment rates to assess the effects of harvest on population size and trend and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies.

  10. Analytical methods of leakage rate estimation from a containment under a LOCA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chun, M.H.

    1981-01-01

    Three most outstanding maximum flow rate formulas are identified from many existing models. Outlines of the three limiting mass flow rate models are given along with computational procedures to estimate approximate amount of fission products released from a containment to environment for a given characteristic hole size for containment-isolation failure and containment pressure and temperature under a loss of coolant accident. Sample calculations are performed using the critical ideal gas flow rate model and the Moody's graphs for the maximum two-phase flow rates, and the results are compared with the values obtained from then mass leakage rate formula of CONTEMPT-LT code for converging nozzle and sonic flow. It is shown that the critical ideal gas flow rate formula gives almost comparable results as one can obtain from the Moody's model. It is also found that a more conservative approach to estimate leakage rate from a containment under a LOCA is to use the maximum ideal gas flow rate equation rather than the mass leakage rate formula of CONTEMPT-LT. (author)

  11. Estimating Exchange Rate Exposure over Various Return Horizons: Focusing on Major Countries in East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeong Wook Lee

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we estimate the exchange rate exposure, indicating the effect of exchange rate movements on firm values, for a sample of 1,400 firms in seven East Asian countries. The exposure estimates based on various exchange rate variables, return horizons and a control variable are compared. A key result from our analysis is that the long term effect of exchange rate movements on firm values is greater than the short term effect. And we find very similar results from using other exchange rate variables such as the U.S. dollar exchange rate, etc. Second, we add exchange rate volatility as a control variable and find that the extent of exposure is not much changed. Third, we examine the changes in exposure to exchange rate volatility with an increase in return horizon. Consequently the ratio of firms with significant exposures increases with the return horizons. Interestingly, the increase of exposure with the return horizons is faster for exposure to volatility than for exposure to exchange rate itself. Taken as a whole, our findings suggest that the so-called "exposure puzzle" may be a matter of the methodology used to measure exposure.

  12. Using administrative data to estimate graduation rates: Challenges, Proposed solutions and their pitfalls.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joydeep Roy

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been a renewed interest in understanding the levels and trends in high school graduation in the U.S. A big and influential literature has argued that the “true” high school graduation rate remains at an unsatisfactory level, and that the graduation rates for minorities (Blacks and Hispanics are alarmingly low. In this paper we take a closer look at the different measures of high school graduation which have recently been proposed and which yield such low estimates of graduation rates. We argue that the nature of the variables in the Common Core of Data, the dataset maintained by the U.S. Department of Education that is the main source for all of the new measures, requires caution in calculating graduation rates, and the adjustments that have been proposed often impart significant downward bias to the estimates.

  13. Estimated sedimentation rate by radionuclide techniques at Lam Phra Phloeng dam, Northeastern of Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasimonton Moungsrijun; Kanitha Srisuksawad; Kosit Lorsirirat; Tuangrak Nantawisarakul

    2009-01-01

    The Lam Phra Phloeng dam is located in Nakhon Ratchasima province, northeastern of Thailand. Since it was constructed in 1963, the dam is under severe reduction of its water storage capacity caused by deforestation to agricultural land at the upper catchment. Sediment cores were collected using a gravity corer. Sedimentation rates were estimated from the vertical distribution of unsupported Pb-210 in sediment cores. Total Pb-210 was determined by measuring Po-210 activities. The Po-210 and Ra-226 activities were used to determine the rate of sediment by using alpha and gamma spectrometry. The sedimentation rate was estimated using the Constant Initial Concentration model (CIC), the sedimentation rate crest dam 0.265 gcm -2 y -1 and the upstream 0.213 gcm -2 y -1 (Author)

  14. Organic carbon sedimentation rates in Asian mangrove coastal ecosystems estimated by 210PB chronology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tateda, Y.; Wattayakorn, G.; Nhan, D.D.; Kasuya, Y.

    2004-01-01

    Organic carbon balance estimation of mangrove coastal ecosystem is important for understanding of Asian coastal carbon budget/flux calculation in global carbon cycle modelling which is powerful tool for the prediction of future greenhouse gas effect and evaluation of countermeasure preference. Especially, the organic carbon accumulation rate in mangrove ecosystem was reported to be important sink of carbon as well as that in boreal peat accumulation. For the estimation of 10 3 years scale organic carbon accumulation rates in mangrove coastal ecosystems, 14 C was used as long term chronological tracer, being useful in pristine mangrove forest reserve area. While in case of mangrove plantation of in coastal area, the 210 Pb is suitable for the estimation of decades scale estimation by its half-life. Though it has possibility of bio-/physical- turbation effect in applying 210 Pb chronology that is offset in case of 10 3 years scale estimation, especially in Asian mangrove ecosystem where the anthropogenic physical turbation by coastal fishery is vigorous.In this paper, we studied the organic carbon and 210 Pb accumulation rates in subtropical mangrove coastal ecosystems in Japan, Vietnam and Thailand with 7 Be analyses to make sure the negligible effect of above turbation effects on organic carbon accumulation. We finally concluded that 210 Pb was applicable to estimate organic carbon accumulation rates in these ecosystems even though the physical-/bio-turbation is expected. The measured organic carbon accumulation rates using 210 Pb in mangrove coastal ecosystems of Japan, Vietnam and Thailand were 0.067 4.0 t-C ha -1 y -1 . (author)

  15. ESTIMATION OF THE WANDA GLACIER (SOUTH SHETLANDS) SEDIMENT EROSION RATE USING NUMERICAL MODELLING

    OpenAIRE

    Kátia Kellem Rosa; Rosemary Vieira; Jefferson Cardia Simões

    2013-01-01

    Glacial sediment yield results from glacial erosion and is influenced by several factors including glacial retreat rate, ice flow velocity and thermal regime. This paper estimates the contemporary subglacial erosion rate and sediment yield of Wanda Glacier (King George Island, South Shetlands). This work also examines basal sediment evacuation mechanisms by runoff and glacial erosion processes during the subglacial transport. This is small temperate glacier that has seen retreating for the l...

  16. Estimating the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Josué Fernando Cortés Espada

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Mexico. Moreover, it analyzes if the pass-through dynamics have changed in recent years. In particular, it uses a methodology that generates results consistent with the hierarchy implicit in the cpi. The results suggest that the exchange rate pass-through to the general price level is low and not statistically significant. However, the pass-through is positive and significant for goods prices. Furthermo...

  17. An estimation of the exchange rate pass-through to prices in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Josué Fernando Cortés Espada

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Mexico. Moreover, it analyzes if the pass-through dynamics have changed in recent years. In particular, it uses a methodology that generates results consistent with the hierarchy implicit in the CPI. The results suggest that the exchange rate pass-through to the general price level is low and not statistically significant. However, the pass-through is positive and significant for goods prices. Furthermo...

  18. State-Space Dynamic Model for Estimation of Radon Entry Rate, based on Kalman Filtering

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brabec, Marek; Jílek, K.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 98, - (2007), s. 285-297 ISSN 0265-931X Grant - others:GA SÚJB JC_11/2006 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : air ventilation rate * radon entry rate * state-space modeling * extended Kalman filter * maximum likelihood estimation * prediction error decomposition Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.963, year: 2007

  19. A new approach to estimate ice dynamic rates using satellite observations in East Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Kallenberg

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Mass balance changes of the Antarctic ice sheet are of significant interest due to its sensitivity to climatic changes and its contribution to changes in global sea level. While regional climate models successfully estimate mass input due to snowfall, it remains difficult to estimate the amount of mass loss due to ice dynamic processes. It has often been assumed that changes in ice dynamic rates only need to be considered when assessing long-term ice sheet mass balance; however, 2 decades of satellite altimetry observations reveal that the Antarctic ice sheet changes unexpectedly and much more dynamically than previously expected. Despite available estimates on ice dynamic rates obtained from radar altimetry, information about ice sheet changes due to changes in the ice dynamics are still limited, especially in East Antarctica. Without understanding ice dynamic rates, it is not possible to properly assess changes in ice sheet mass balance and surface elevation or to develop ice sheet models. In this study we investigate the possibility of estimating ice sheet changes due to ice dynamic rates by removing modelled rates of surface mass balance, firn compaction, and bedrock uplift from satellite altimetry and gravity observations. With similar rates of ice discharge acquired from two different satellite missions we show that it is possible to obtain an approximation of the rate of change due to ice dynamics by combining altimetry and gravity observations. Thus, surface elevation changes due to surface mass balance, firn compaction, and ice dynamic rates can be modelled and correlated with observed elevation changes from satellite altimetry.

  20. Diversity Dynamics in Nymphalidae Butterflies: Effect of Phylogenetic Uncertainty on Diversification Rate Shift Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña, Carlos; Espeland, Marianne

    2015-01-01

    The species rich butterfly family Nymphalidae has been used to study evolutionary interactions between plants and insects. Theories of insect-hostplant dynamics predict accelerated diversification due to key innovations. In evolutionary biology, analysis of maximum credibility trees in the software MEDUSA (modelling evolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC) is a popular method for estimation of shifts in diversification rates. We investigated whether phylogenetic uncertainty can produce different results by extending the method across a random sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian run. Using the MultiMEDUSA approach, we found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatly affects diversification rate estimates. Different trees produced diversification rates ranging from high values to almost zero for the same clade, and both significant rate increase and decrease in some clades. Only four out of 18 significant shifts found on the maximum clade credibility tree were consistent across most of the sampled trees. Among these, we found accelerated diversification for Ithomiini butterflies. We used the binary speciation and extinction model (BiSSE) and found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae is correlated with increased net diversification rates in Ithomiini, congruent with the diffuse cospeciation hypothesis. Our results show that taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account when estimating net diversification rate shifts is of great importance, as very different results can be obtained when using the maximum clade credibility tree and other trees from the posterior distribution. PMID:25830910

  1. Diversity dynamics in Nymphalidae butterflies: effect of phylogenetic uncertainty on diversification rate shift estimates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Peña

    Full Text Available The species rich butterfly family Nymphalidae has been used to study evolutionary interactions between plants and insects. Theories of insect-hostplant dynamics predict accelerated diversification due to key innovations. In evolutionary biology, analysis of maximum credibility trees in the software MEDUSA (modelling evolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC is a popular method for estimation of shifts in diversification rates. We investigated whether phylogenetic uncertainty can produce different results by extending the method across a random sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian run. Using the MultiMEDUSA approach, we found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatly affects diversification rate estimates. Different trees produced diversification rates ranging from high values to almost zero for the same clade, and both significant rate increase and decrease in some clades. Only four out of 18 significant shifts found on the maximum clade credibility tree were consistent across most of the sampled trees. Among these, we found accelerated diversification for Ithomiini butterflies. We used the binary speciation and extinction model (BiSSE and found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae is correlated with increased net diversification rates in Ithomiini, congruent with the diffuse cospeciation hypothesis. Our results show that taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account when estimating net diversification rate shifts is of great importance, as very different results can be obtained when using the maximum clade credibility tree and other trees from the posterior distribution.

  2. A new balance formula to estimate new particle formation rate: reevaluating the effect of coagulation scavenging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Cai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A new balance formula to estimate new particle formation rate is proposed. It is derived from the aerosol general dynamic equation in the discrete form and then converted into an approximately continuous form for analyzing data from new particle formation (NPF field campaigns. The new formula corrects the underestimation of the coagulation scavenging effect that occurred in the previously used formulae. It also clarifies the criteria for determining the upper size bound in measured aerosol size distributions for estimating new particle formation rate. An NPF field campaign was carried out from 7 March to 7 April 2016 in urban Beijing, and a diethylene glycol scanning mobility particle spectrometer equipped with a miniature cylindrical differential mobility analyzer was used to measure aerosol size distributions down to ∼ 1 nm. Eleven typical NPF events were observed during this period. Measured aerosol size distributions from 1 nm to 10 µm were used to test the new formula and the formulae widely used in the literature. The previously used formulae that perform well in a relatively clean atmosphere in which nucleation intensity is not strong were found to underestimate the comparatively high new particle formation rate in urban Beijing because of their underestimation or neglect of the coagulation scavenging effect. The coagulation sink term is the governing component of the estimated formation rate in the observed NPF events in Beijing, and coagulation among newly formed particles contributes a large fraction to the coagulation sink term. Previously reported formation rates in Beijing and in other locations with intense NPF events might be underestimated because the coagulation scavenging effect was not fully considered; e.g., estimated formation rates of 1.5 nm particles in this campaign using the new formula are 1.3–4.3 times those estimated using the formula neglecting coagulation among particles in the nucleation mode.

  3. Estimation of leak rate through circumferential cracks in pipes in nuclear power plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jai Hak Park

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The leak before break (LBB concept is widely used in designing pipe lines in nuclear power plants. According to the concept, the amount of leaking liquid from a pipe should be more than the minimum detectable leak rate of a leak detection system before catastrophic failure occurs. Therefore, accurate estimation of the leak rate is important to evaluate the validity of the LBB concept in pipe line design. In this paper, a program was developed to estimate the leak rate through circumferential cracks in pipes in nuclear power plants using the Henry–Fauske flow model and modified Henry–Fauske flow model. By using the developed program, the leak rate was calculated for a circumferential crack in a sample pipe, and the effect of the flow model on the leak rate was examined. Treating the crack morphology parameters as random variables, the statistical behavior of the leak rate was also examined. As a result, it was found that the crack morphology parameters have a strong effect on the leak rate and the statistical behavior of the leak rate can be simulated using normally distributed crack morphology parameters.

  4. Estimating rates of local species extinction, colonization and turnover in animal communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, James D.; Boulinier, T.; Hines, J.E.; Pollock, K.H.; Sauer, J.R.

    1998-01-01

    Species richness has been identified as a useful state variable for conservation and management purposes. Changes in richness over time provide a basis for predicting and evaluating community responses to management, to natural disturbance, and to changes in factors such as community composition (e.g., the removal of a keystone species). Probabilistic capture-recapture models have been used recently to estimate species richness from species count and presence-absence data. These models do not require the common assumption that all species are detected in sampling efforts. We extend this approach to the development of estimators useful for studying the vital rates responsible for changes in animal communities over time; rates of local species extinction, turnover, and colonization. Our approach to estimation is based on capture-recapture models for closed animal populations that permit heterogeneity in detection probabilities among the different species in the sampled community. We have developed a computer program, COMDYN, to compute many of these estimators and associated bootstrap variances. Analyses using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) suggested that the estimators performed reasonably well. We recommend estimators based on probabilistic modeling for future work on community responses to management efforts as well as on basic questions about community dynamics.

  5. Estimation of construction and demolition waste using waste generation rates in Chennai, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ram, V G; Kalidindi, Satyanarayana N

    2017-06-01

    A large amount of construction and demolition waste is being generated owing to rapid urbanisation in Indian cities. A reliable estimate of construction and demolition waste generation is essential to create awareness about this stream of solid waste among the government bodies in India. However, the required data to estimate construction and demolition waste generation in India are unavailable or not explicitly documented. This study proposed an approach to estimate construction and demolition waste generation using waste generation rates and demonstrated it by estimating construction and demolition waste generation in Chennai city. The demolition waste generation rates of primary materials were determined through regression analysis using waste generation data from 45 case studies. Materials, such as wood, electrical wires, doors, windows and reinforcement steel, were found to be salvaged and sold on the secondary market. Concrete and masonry debris were dumped in either landfills or unauthorised places. The total quantity of construction and demolition debris generated in Chennai city in 2013 was estimated to be 1.14 million tonnes. The proportion of masonry debris was found to be 76% of the total quantity of demolition debris. Construction and demolition debris forms about 36% of the total solid waste generated in Chennai city. A gross underestimation of construction and demolition waste generation in some earlier studies in India has also been shown. The methodology proposed could be utilised by government bodies, policymakers and researchers to generate reliable estimates of construction and demolition waste in other developing countries facing similar challenges of limited data availability.

  6. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER meas...

  7. A novel multitemporal insar model for joint estimation of deformation rates and orbital errors

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Lei; Ding, Xiaoli; Lu, Zhong; Jung, Hyungsup; Hu, Jun; Feng, Guangcai

    2014-01-01

    be corrected efficiently and reliably. We propose a novel model that is able to jointly estimate deformation rates and orbital errors based on the different spatialoral characteristics of the two types of signals. The proposed model is able to isolate a long

  8. Optimization of hierarchical 3DRS motion estimators for picture rate conversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heinrich, A.; Bartels, C.L.L.; Vleuten, van der R.J.; Cordes, C.N.; Haan, de G.

    2010-01-01

    There is a continuous pressure to lower the implementation complexity and improve the quality of motion-compensated picture rate conversion methods. Since the concept of hierarchy can be advantageously applied to many motion estimation methods, we have extended and improved the current

  9. An expert system for estimating production rates and costs for hardwood group-selection harvests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris B. LeDoux; B. Gopalakrishnan; R. S. Pabba

    2003-01-01

    As forest managers shift their focus from stands to entire ecosystems alternative harvesting methods such as group selection are being used increasingly. Results of several field time and motion studies and simulation runs were incorporated into an expert system for estimating production rates and costs associated with harvests of group-selection units of various size...

  10. estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of survival in acute stroke

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-03-03

    Mar 3, 2014 ... ESTIMATED GLOMERULAR FILTRATION RATE AND RISK OF SURVIVAL IN ACUTE STROKE. E. I. Okaka, MBBS, FWACP, F. A. Imarhiagbe, MBChB, FMCP, F. E. Odiase, MBBS, FMCP, O. C. A. Okoye, MBBS, FWACP,. Department of Medicine, University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Nigeria.

  11. Estimating fish swimming metrics and metabolic rates with accelerometers: the influence of sampling frequency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownscombe, J W; Lennox, R J; Danylchuk, A J; Cooke, S J

    2018-06-21

    Accelerometry is growing in popularity for remotely measuring fish swimming metrics, but appropriate sampling frequencies for accurately measuring these metrics are not well studied. This research examined the influence of sampling frequency (1-25 Hz) with tri-axial accelerometer biologgers on estimates of overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA), tail-beat frequency, swimming speed and metabolic rate of bonefish Albula vulpes in a swim-tunnel respirometer and free-swimming in a wetland mesocosm. In the swim tunnel, sampling frequencies of ≥ 5 Hz were sufficient to establish strong relationships between ODBA, swimming speed and metabolic rate. However, in free-swimming bonefish, estimates of metabolic rate were more variable below 10 Hz. Sampling frequencies should be at least twice the maximum tail-beat frequency to estimate this metric effectively, which is generally higher than those required to estimate ODBA, swimming speed and metabolic rate. While optimal sampling frequency probably varies among species due to tail-beat frequency and swimming style, this study provides a reference point with a medium body-sized sub-carangiform teleost fish, enabling researchers to measure these metrics effectively and maximize study duration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  12. Estimation of shutdown heat generation rates in GHARR-1 due to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fission products decay power and residual fission power generated after shutdown of Ghana Research Reactor-1 (GHARR-1) by reactivity insertion accident were estimated by solution of the decay and residual heat equations. A Matlab program code was developed to simulate the heat generation rates by fission product ...

  13. Estimates of Annual Soil Loss Rates in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grasiela de Oliveira Rodrigues Medeiros

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Soil is a natural resource that has been affected by human pressures beyond its renewal capacity. For this reason, large agricultural areas that were productive have been abandoned due to soil degradation, mainly caused by the erosion process. The objective of this study was to apply the Universal Soil Loss Equation to generate more recent estimates of soil loss rates for the state of São Paulo using a database with information from medium resolution (30 m. The results showed that many areas of the state have high (critical levels of soil degradation due to the predominance of consolidated human activities, especially in growing sugarcane and pasture use. The average estimated rate of soil loss is 30 Mg ha-1 yr-1 and 59 % of the area of the state (except for water bodies and urban areas had estimated rates above 12 Mg ha-1 yr-1, considered as the average tolerance limit in the literature. The average rates of soil loss in areas with annual agricultural crops, semi-perennial agricultural crops (sugarcane, and permanent agricultural crops were 118, 78, and 38 Mg ha-1 yr-1 respectively. The state of São Paulo requires attention to conservation of soil resources, since most soils led to estimates beyond the tolerance limit.

  14. ESTIMATING SPECIATION AND EXTINCTION RATES FROM DIVERSITY DATA AND THE FOSSIL RECORD

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etienne, Rampal S.; Apol, M. Emile F.

    Understanding the processes that underlie biodiversity requires insight into the evolutionary history of the taxa involved. Accurate estimation of speciation, extinction, and diversification rates is a prerequisite for gaining this insight. Here, we develop a stochastic birth-death model of

  15. Neural estimation of kinetic rate constants from dynamic PET-scans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fog, Torben L.; Nielsen, Lars Hupfeldt; Hansen, Lars Kai

    1994-01-01

    A feedforward neural net is trained to invert a simple three compartment model describing the tracer kinetics involved in the metabolism of [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose in the human brain. The network can estimate rate constants from positron emission tomography sequences and is about 50 times faster ...

  16. Estimation of Oil Production Rates in Reservoirs Exposed to Focused Vibrational Energy

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Chanseok; Kallivokas, Loukas F.; Huh, Chun; Lake, Larry W.

    2014-01-01

    the production rate of remaining oil from existing oil fields. To date, there are few theoretical studies on estimating how much bypassed oil within an oil reservoir could be mobilized by such vibrational stimulation. To fill this gap, this paper presents a

  17. Data-driven techniques to estimate parameters in a rate-dependent ferromagnetic hysteresis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Zhengzheng; Smith, Ralph C.; Ernstberger, Jon M.

    2012-01-01

    The quantification of rate-dependent ferromagnetic hysteresis is important in a range of applications including high speed milling using Terfenol-D actuators. There exist a variety of frameworks for characterizing rate-dependent hysteresis including the magnetic model in Ref. , the homogenized energy framework, Preisach formulations that accommodate after-effects, and Prandtl-Ishlinskii models. A critical issue when using any of these models to characterize physical devices concerns the efficient estimation of model parameters through least squares data fits. A crux of this issue is the determination of initial parameter estimates based on easily measured attributes of the data. In this paper, we present data-driven techniques to efficiently and robustly estimate parameters in the homogenized energy model. This framework was chosen due to its physical basis and its applicability to ferroelectric, ferromagnetic and ferroelastic materials.

  18. Estimation of maximum credible atmospheric radioactivity concentrations and dose rates from nuclear tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Telegadas, K.

    1979-01-01

    A simple technique is presented for estimating maximum credible gross beta air concentrations from nuclear detonations in the atmosphere, based on aircraft sampling of radioactivity following each Chinese nuclear test from 1964 to 1976. The calculated concentration is a function of the total yield and fission yield, initial vertical radioactivity distribution, time after detonation, and rate of horizontal spread of the debris with time. calculated maximum credible concentrations are compared with the highest concentrations measured during aircraft sampling. The technique provides a reasonable estimate of maximum air concentrations from 1 to 10 days after a detonation. An estimate of the whole-body external gamma dose rate corresponding to the maximum credible gross beta concentration is also given. (author)

  19. Estimating the annotation error rate of curated GO database sequence annotations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brown Alfred L

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Annotations that describe the function of sequences are enormously important to researchers during laboratory investigations and when making computational inferences. However, there has been little investigation into the data quality of sequence function annotations. Here we have developed a new method of estimating the error rate of curated sequence annotations, and applied this to the Gene Ontology (GO sequence database (GOSeqLite. This method involved artificially adding errors to sequence annotations at known rates, and used regression to model the impact on the precision of annotations based on BLAST matched sequences. Results We estimated the error rate of curated GO sequence annotations in the GOSeqLite database (March 2006 at between 28% and 30%. Annotations made without use of sequence similarity based methods (non-ISS had an estimated error rate of between 13% and 18%. Annotations made with the use of sequence similarity methodology (ISS had an estimated error rate of 49%. Conclusion While the overall error rate is reasonably low, it would be prudent to treat all ISS annotations with caution. Electronic annotators that use ISS annotations as the basis of predictions are likely to have higher false prediction rates, and for this reason designers of these systems should consider avoiding ISS annotations where possible. Electronic annotators that use ISS annotations to make predictions should be viewed sceptically. We recommend that curators thoroughly review ISS annotations before accepting them as valid. Overall, users of curated sequence annotations from the GO database should feel assured that they are using a comparatively high quality source of information.

  20. Comparing avian and bat fatality rate estimates among North American wind energy projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smallwood, Shawn

    2011-07-01

    Full text: Wind energy development has expanded rapidly, and so have concerns over bird and bat impacts caused by wind turbines. To assess and compare impacts due to collisions, investigators use a common metric, fatalities/MW/year, but estimates of fatality rates have come from various wind turbine models, tower heights, environments, fatality search methods, and analytical methods. To improve comparability and asses large-scale impacts, I applied a common set of assumptions and methods to data in fatality monitoring reports to estimate fatality rates of birds and bats at 71 wind projects across North America (52 outside the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, APWRA). The data were from wind turbines of 27 sizes (range 0.04-3.00 MW) and 28 tower heights (range 18.5-90 m), and searched at 40 periodic intervals (range 1-90 days) and out to 20 distances from turbines (range 30-126 m). Estimates spanned the years 1982 to 2010, and involved 1-1,345 turbines per unique combination of project, turbine size, tower height, and search methodology. I adjusted fatality rates for search detection rates averaged from 425 detection trials, and for scavenger removal rates based on 413 removal trials. I also adjusted fatality rates for turbine tower height and maximum search radius, based on logistic functions fit to cumulative counts of carcasses that were detected at 1-m distance intervals from the turbine. For each tower height, I estimated the distance at which cumulative carcass counts reached an asymptote, and for each project I calculated the proportion of fatalities likely not found due to the maximum search radius being short of the model-predicted distance asymptote. I used the same estimator in all cases. I estimated mean fatalities/MW/year among North American wind projects at 12.6 bats (80% CI: 8.1-17.1) and 11.1 birds (80% CI: 9.5-12.7), including 1.6 raptors (80% CI: 1.3-2.0), and excluding the Altamont Pass I estimated fatality rates at 17.2 bats (80% CI: 9

  1. An Empirical Comparison between Two Recursive Filters for Attitude and Rate Estimation of Spinning Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harman, Richard R.

    2006-01-01

    The advantages of inducing a constant spin rate on a spacecraft are well known. A variety of science missions have used this technique as a relatively low cost method for conducting science. Starting in the late 1970s, NASA focused on building spacecraft using 3-axis control as opposed to the single-axis control mentioned above. Considerable effort was expended toward sensor and control system development, as well as the development of ground systems to independently process the data. As a result, spinning spacecraft development and their resulting ground system development stagnated. In the 1990s, shrinking budgets made spinning spacecraft an attractive option for science. The attitude requirements for recent spinning spacecraft are more stringent and the ground systems must be enhanced in order to provide the necessary attitude estimation accuracy. Since spinning spacecraft (SC) typically have no gyroscopes for measuring attitude rate, any new estimator would need to rely on the spacecraft dynamics equations. One estimation technique that utilized the SC dynamics and has been used successfully in 3-axis gyro-less spacecraft ground systems is the pseudo-linear Kalman filter algorithm. Consequently, a pseudo-linear Kalman filter has been developed which directly estimates the spacecraft attitude quaternion and rate for a spinning SC. Recently, a filter using Markley variables was developed specifically for spinning spacecraft. The pseudo-linear Kalman filter has the advantage of being easier to implement but estimates the quaternion which, due to the relatively high spinning rate, changes rapidly for a spinning spacecraft. The Markley variable filter is more complicated to implement but, being based on the SC angular momentum, estimates parameters which vary slowly. This paper presents a comparison of the performance of these two filters. Monte-Carlo simulation runs will be presented which demonstrate the advantages and disadvantages of both filters.

  2. Direct estimates of unemployment rate and capacity utilization in macroeconometric models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klein, L R [Univ. of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia; Su, V

    1979-10-01

    The problem of measuring resource-capacity utilization as a factor in overall economic efficiency is examined, and a tentative solution is offered. A macro-econometric model is applied to the aggregate production function by linking unemployment rate and capacity utilization rate. Partial- and full-model simulations use Wharton indices as a filter and produce direct estimates of unemployment rates. The simulation paths of durable-goods industries, which are more capital-intensive, are found to be more sensitive to business cycles than the nondurable-goods industries. 11 references.

  3. Theoretical estimation of Photons flow rate Production in quark gluon interaction at high energies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Agealy, Hadi J. M.; Hamza Hussein, Hyder; Mustafa Hussein, Saba

    2018-05-01

    photons emitted from higher energetic collisions in quark-gluon system have been theoretical studied depending on color quantum theory. A simple model for photons emission at quark-gluon system have been investigated. In this model, we use a quantum consideration which enhances to describing the quark system. The photons current rate are estimation for two system at different fugacity coefficient. We discussion the behavior of photons rate and quark gluon system properties in different photons energies with Boltzmann model. The photons rate depending on anisotropic coefficient : strong constant, photons energy, color number, fugacity parameter, thermal energy and critical energy of system are also discussed.

  4. Review of flow rate estimates of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

    OpenAIRE

    McNutt, Marcia K.; Camilli, Rich; Crone, Timothy J.; Guthrie, George D.; Hsieh, Paul A.; Ryerson, Thomas B.; Savas, Omer; Shaffer, Frank

    2011-01-01

    The unprecedented nature of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill required the application of research methods to estimate the rate at which oil was escaping from the well in the deep sea, its disposition after it entered the ocean, and total reservoir depletion. Here, we review what advances were made in scientific understanding of quantification of flow rates during deep sea oil well blowouts. We assess the degree to which a consensus was reached on the flow rate of the well by comparing in situ ...

  5. Shear Viscosity of Hot QED at Finite Chemical Potential from Kubo Formula

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Hui; Hou Defu; Li Jiarong

    2008-01-01

    Within the framework of finite temperature feld theory this paper discusses the shear viscosity of hot QED plasma through Kubo formula at one-loop skeleton diagram level with a finite chemical potential. The effective widths (damping rates) are introduced to regulate the pinch singularities and then gives a reliable estimation of the shear viscous coefficient. The finite chemical potential contributes positively compared to the pure temperature case. The result agrees with that from the kinetics theory qualitatively

  6. Using ²¹⁰Pb measurements to estimate sedimentation rates on river floodplains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, P; Walling, D E

    2012-01-01

    Growing interest in the dynamics of floodplain evolution and the important role of overbank sedimentation on river floodplains as a sediment sink has focused attention on the need to document contemporary and recent rates of overbank sedimentation. The potential for using the fallout radionuclides ¹³⁷Cs and excess ²¹⁰Pb to estimate medium-term (10-10² years) sedimentation rates on river floodplains has attracted increasing attention. Most studies that have successfully used fallout radionuclides for this purpose have focused on the use of ¹³⁷Cs. However, the use of excess ²¹⁰Pb potentially offers a number of advantages over ¹³⁷Cs measurements. Most existing investigations that have used excess ²¹⁰Pb measurements to document sedimentation rates have, however, focused on lakes rather than floodplains and the transfer of the approach, and particularly the models used to estimate the sedimentation rate, to river floodplains involves a number of uncertainties, which require further attention. This contribution reports the results of an investigation of overbank sedimentation rates on the floodplains of several UK rivers. Sediment cores were collected from seven floodplain sites representative of different environmental conditions and located in different areas of England and Wales. Measurements of excess ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs were made on these cores. The ²¹⁰Pb measurements have been used to estimate sedimentation rates and the results obtained by using different models have been compared. The ¹³⁷Cs measurements have also been used to provide an essentially independent time marker for validation purposes. In using the ²¹⁰Pb measurements, particular attention was directed to the problem of obtaining reliable estimates of the supported and excess or unsupported components of the total ²¹⁰Pb activity of sediment samples. Although there was a reasonable degree of consistency between the estimates of sedimentation rate provided by

  7. Estimation of the prevalence and rate of acute transfusion reactions occurring in Windhoek, Namibia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meza, Benjamin P.L.; Lohrke, Britta; Wilkinson, Robert; Pitman, John P.; Shiraishi, Ray W.; Bock, Naomi; Lowrance, David W.; Kuehnert, Matthew J.; Mataranyika, Mary; Basavaraju, Sridhar V.

    2014-01-01

    Background Acute transfusion reactions are probably common in sub-Saharan Africa, but transfusion reaction surveillance systems have not been widely established. In 2008, the Blood Transfusion Service of Namibia implemented a national acute transfusion reaction surveillance system, but substantial under-reporting was suspected. We estimated the actual prevalence and rate of acute transfusion reactions occurring in Windhoek, Namibia. Methods The percentage of transfusion events resulting in a reported acute transfusion reaction was calculated. Actual percentage and rates of acute transfusion reactions per 1,000 transfused units were estimated by reviewing patients’ records from six hospitals, which transfuse >99% of all blood in Windhoek. Patients’ records for 1,162 transfusion events occurring between 1st January – 31st December 2011 were randomly selected. Clinical and demographic information were abstracted and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Healthcare Safety Network criteria were applied to categorize acute transfusion reactions1. Results From January 1 – December 31, 2011, there were 3,697 transfusion events (involving 10,338 blood units) in the selected hospitals. Eight (0.2%) acute transfusion reactions were reported to the surveillance system. Of the 1,162 transfusion events selected, medical records for 785 transfusion events were analysed, and 28 acute transfusion reactions were detected, of which only one had also been reported to the surveillance system. An estimated 3.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.3–4.4) of transfusion events in Windhoek resulted in an acute transfusion reaction, with an estimated rate of 11.5 (95% CI: 7.6–14.5) acute transfusion reactions per 1,000 transfused units. Conclusion The estimated actual rate of acute transfusion reactions is higher than the rate reported to the national haemovigilance system. Improved surveillance and interventions to reduce transfusion-related morbidity and mortality

  8. Estimation of time-varying growth, uptake and excretion rates from dynamic metabolomics data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinquemani, Eugenio; Laroute, Valérie; Cocaign-Bousquet, Muriel; de Jong, Hidde; Ropers, Delphine

    2017-07-15

    Technological advances in metabolomics have made it possible to monitor the concentration of extracellular metabolites over time. From these data, it is possible to compute the rates of uptake and excretion of the metabolites by a growing cell population, providing precious information on the functioning of intracellular metabolism. The computation of the rate of these exchange reactions, however, is difficult to achieve in practice for a number of reasons, notably noisy measurements, correlations between the concentration profiles of the different extracellular metabolites, and discontinuties in the profiles due to sudden changes in metabolic regime. We present a method for precisely estimating time-varying uptake and excretion rates from time-series measurements of extracellular metabolite concentrations, specifically addressing all of the above issues. The estimation problem is formulated in a regularized Bayesian framework and solved by a combination of extended Kalman filtering and smoothing. The method is shown to improve upon methods based on spline smoothing of the data. Moreover, when applied to two actual datasets, the method recovers known features of overflow metabolism in Escherichia coli and Lactococcus lactis , and provides evidence for acetate uptake by L. lactis after glucose exhaustion. The results raise interesting perspectives for further work on rate estimation from measurements of intracellular metabolites. The Matlab code for the estimation method is available for download at https://team.inria.fr/ibis/rate-estimation-software/ , together with the datasets. eugenio.cinquemani@inria.fr. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  9. Improved estimates of external gamma dose rates in the environs of Hinkley Point Power Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macdonald, H.F.; Thompson, I.M.G.

    1988-07-01

    The dominant source of external gamma dose rates at centres of population within a few kilometres of Hinkley Point Power Station is the routine discharge of 41-Ar from the 'A' station magnox reactors. Earlier estimates of the 41-Ar radiation dose rates were based upon measured discharge rates, combined with calculations using standard plume dispersion and cloud-gamma integration models. This report presents improved dose estimates derived from environmental gamma dose rate measurements made at distances up to about 1 km from the site, thus minimising the degree of extrapolation introduced in estimating dose rates at locations up to a few kilometres from the site. In addition, results from associated chemical tracer measurements and wind tunnel simulations covering distances up to about 4 km from the station are outlined. These provide information on the spatial distribution of the 41-Ar plume during the initial stages of its dispersion, including effects due to plume buoyancy and momentum and behaviour under light wind conditions. In addition to supporting the methodology used for the 41-Ar dose calculations, this information is also of generic interest in the treatment of a range of operational and accidental releases from nuclear power station sites and will assist in the development and validation of existing environmental models. (author)

  10. Estimation of component failure rates for PSA on nuclear power plants 1982-1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Matsuzaki, Akihiro; Sasaki, Atsushi

    2001-01-01

    Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) on nuclear power plants has been studied for many years by the Japanese industry. The PSA methodology has been improved so that PSAs for all commercial LWRs were performed and used to examine for accident management.On the other hand, most data of component failure rates in these PSAs were acquired from U.S. databases. Nuclear Information Center (NIC) of Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) serves utilities by providing safety- , and reliability-related information on operation and maintenance of the nuclear power plants, and by evaluating the plant performance and incident trends. So, NIC started a research study on estimating the major component failure rates at the request of the utilities in 1988. As a result, we estimated the hourly-failure rates of 47 component types and the demand-failure rates of 15 component types. The set of domestic component reliability data from 1982 to 1991 for 34 LWRs has been evaluated by a group of PSA experts in Japan at the Nuclear Safety Research Association (NSRA) in 1995 and 1996, and the evaluation report was issued in March 1997. This document describes the revised component failure rate calculated by our re-estimation on 49 Japanese LWRs from 1982 to 1997. (author)

  11. Comparing facility-level methane emission rate estimates at natural gas gathering and boosting stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy L. Vaughn

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Coordinated dual-tracer, aircraft-based, and direct component-level measurements were made at midstream natural gas gathering and boosting stations in the Fayetteville shale (Arkansas, USA. On-site component-level measurements were combined with engineering estimates to generate comprehensive facility-level methane emission rate estimates (“study on-site estimates (SOE” comparable to tracer and aircraft measurements. Combustion slip (unburned fuel entrained in compressor engine exhaust, which was calculated based on 111 recent measurements of representative compressor engines, accounts for an estimated 75% of cumulative SOEs at gathering stations included in comparisons. Measured methane emissions from regenerator vents on glycol dehydrator units were substantially larger than predicted by modelling software; the contribution of dehydrator regenerator vents to the cumulative SOE would increase from 1% to 10% if based on direct measurements. Concurrent measurements at 14 normally-operating facilities show relative agreement between tracer and SOE, but indicate that tracer measurements estimate lower emissions (regression of tracer to SOE = 0.91 (95% CI = 0.83–0.99, R2 = 0.89. Tracer and SOE 95% confidence intervals overlap at 11/14 facilities. Contemporaneous measurements at six facilities suggest that aircraft measurements estimate higher emissions than SOE. Aircraft and study on-site estimate 95% confidence intervals overlap at 3/6 facilities. The average facility level emission rate (FLER estimated by tracer measurements in this study is 17–73% higher than a prior national study by Marchese et al.

  12. ESTIMATION OF THE WANDA GLACIER (SOUTH SHETLANDS SEDIMENT EROSION RATE USING NUMERICAL MODELLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kátia Kellem Rosa

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Glacial sediment yield results from glacial erosion and is influenced by several factors including glacial retreat rate, ice flow velocity and thermal regime. This paper estimates the contemporary subglacial erosion rate and sediment yield of Wanda Glacier (King George Island, South Shetlands. This work also examines basal sediment evacuation mechanisms by runoff and glacial erosion processes during the subglacial transport. This is small temperate glacier that has seen retreating for the last decades. In this work, we examine basal sediment evacuation mechanisms by runoff and analyze glacial erosion processes occurring during subglacial transport. The glacial erosion rate at Wanda Glacier, estimated using a numerical model that consider sediment evacuated to outlet streams, ice flow velocity, ice thickness and glacier area, is 1.1 ton m yr-1.

  13. Something from nothing: Estimating consumption rates using propensity scores, with application to emissions reduction policies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Bardsley

    Full Text Available Consumption surveys often record zero purchases of a good because of a short observation window. Measures of distribution are then precluded and only mean consumption rates can be inferred. We show that Propensity Score Matching can be applied to recover the distribution of consumption rates. We demonstrate the method using the UK National Travel Survey, in which c.40% of motorist households purchase no fuel. Estimated consumption rates are plausible judging by households' annual mileages, and highly skewed. We apply the same approach to estimate CO2 emissions and outcomes of a carbon cap or tax. Reliance on means apparently distorts analysis of such policies because of skewness of the underlying distributions. The regressiveness of a simple tax or cap is overstated, and redistributive features of a revenue-neutral policy are understated.

  14. Soft error rate estimations of the Kintex-7 FPGA within the ATLAS Liquid Argon (LAr) Calorimeter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wirthlin, M J; Harding, A; Takai, H

    2014-01-01

    This paper summarizes the radiation testing performed on the Xilinx Kintex-7 FPGA in an effort to determine if the Kintex-7 can be used within the ATLAS Liquid Argon (LAr) Calorimeter. The Kintex-7 device was tested with wide-spectrum neutrons, protons, heavy-ions, and mixed high-energy hadron environments. The results of these tests were used to estimate the configuration ram and block ram upset rate within the ATLAS LAr. These estimations suggest that the configuration memory will upset at a rate of 1.1 × 10 −10 upsets/bit/s and the bram memory will upset at a rate of 9.06 × 10 −11 upsets/bit/s. For the Kintex 7K325 device, this translates to 6.85 × 10 −3 upsets/device/s for configuration memory and 1.49 × 10 −3 for block memory

  15. Parameter estimations in predictive microbiology: Statistically sound modelling of the microbial growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akkermans, Simen; Logist, Filip; Van Impe, Jan F

    2018-04-01

    When building models to describe the effect of environmental conditions on the microbial growth rate, parameter estimations can be performed either with a one-step method, i.e., directly on the cell density measurements, or in a two-step method, i.e., via the estimated growth rates. The two-step method is often preferred due to its simplicity. The current research demonstrates that the two-step method is, however, only valid if the correct data transformation is applied and a strict experimental protocol is followed for all experiments. Based on a simulation study and a mathematical derivation, it was demonstrated that the logarithm of the growth rate should be used as a variance stabilizing transformation. Moreover, the one-step method leads to a more accurate estimation of the model parameters and a better approximation of the confidence intervals on the estimated parameters. Therefore, the one-step method is preferred and the two-step method should be avoided. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Estimation of Anaerobic Debromination Rate Constants of PBDE Pathways Using an Anaerobic Dehalogenation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakas, Filiz; Imamoglu, Ipek

    2017-04-01

    This study aims to estimate anaerobic debromination rate constants (k m ) of PBDE pathways using previously reported laboratory soil data. k m values of pathways are estimated by modifying a previously developed model as Anaerobic Dehalogenation Model. Debromination activities published in the literature in terms of bromine substitutions as well as specific microorganisms and their combinations are used for identification of pathways. The range of estimated k m values is between 0.0003 and 0.0241 d -1 . The median and maximum of k m values are found to be comparable to the few available biologically confirmed rate constants published in the literature. The estimated k m values can be used as input to numerical fate and transport models for a better and more detailed investigation of the fate of individual PBDEs in contaminated sediments. Various remediation scenarios such as monitored natural attenuation or bioremediation with bioaugmentation can be handled in a more quantitative manner with the help of k m estimated in this study.

  17. A constrained polynomial regression procedure for estimating the local False Discovery Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Broët Philippe

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the context of genomic association studies, for which a large number of statistical tests are performed simultaneously, the local False Discovery Rate (lFDR, which quantifies the evidence of a specific gene association with a clinical or biological variable of interest, is a relevant criterion for taking into account the multiple testing problem. The lFDR not only allows an inference to be made for each gene through its specific value, but also an estimate of Benjamini-Hochberg's False Discovery Rate (FDR for subsets of genes. Results In the framework of estimating procedures without any distributional assumption under the alternative hypothesis, a new and efficient procedure for estimating the lFDR is described. The results of a simulation study indicated good performances for the proposed estimator in comparison to four published ones. The five different procedures were applied to real datasets. Conclusion A novel and efficient procedure for estimating lFDR was developed and evaluated.

  18. Fetal QRS detection and heart rate estimation: a wavelet-based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almeida, Rute; Rocha, Ana Paula; Gonçalves, Hernâni; Bernardes, João

    2014-01-01

    Fetal heart rate monitoring is used for pregnancy surveillance in obstetric units all over the world but in spite of recent advances in analysis methods, there are still inherent technical limitations that bound its contribution to the improvement of perinatal indicators. In this work, a previously published wavelet transform based QRS detector, validated over standard electrocardiogram (ECG) databases, is adapted to fetal QRS detection over abdominal fetal ECG. Maternal ECG waves were first located using the original detector and afterwards a version with parameters adapted for fetal physiology was applied to detect fetal QRS, excluding signal singularities associated with maternal heartbeats. Single lead (SL) based marks were combined in a single annotator with post processing rules (SLR) from which fetal RR and fetal heart rate (FHR) measures can be computed. Data from PhysioNet with reference fetal QRS locations was considered for validation, with SLR outperforming SL including ICA based detections. The error in estimated FHR using SLR was lower than 20 bpm for more than 80% of the processed files. The median error in 1 min based FHR estimation was 0.13 bpm, with a correlation between reference and estimated FHR of 0.48, which increased to 0.73 when considering only records for which estimated FHR > 110 bpm. This allows us to conclude that the proposed methodology is able to provide a clinically useful estimation of the FHR. (paper)

  19. Supporting information for the estimation of plutonium oxide leak rates through very small apertures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwendiman, L.C.

    1977-01-01

    Information is presented from which an estimate can be made of the release of plutonium oxide from shipping containers. The leak diameter is estimated from gas leak tests of the container and an estimate is made of gas leak rate as a function of pressure over the time of interest in the accident. These calculations are limited in accuracy because of assumptions regarding leak geometry and the basic formulations of hydrodynamic flow for the assumed conditions. Sonic flow is assumed to be the limiting gas flow rate. Particles leaking from the air space above the powder will be limited by the low availability of particles due to rapid settling, the very limited driving force (pressure buildup) during the first minute, and the deposition in the leak channel. Equations are given to estimate deposition losses. Leaks of particles occurring below the level of the bulk powder will be limited by mechanical interference when leaks are of dimension smaller than particle sizes present. Some limiting cases can be calculated. When the leak dimension is large compared to the particle sizes present, maximum particle releases can be estimated, but will be very conservative

  20. Distortion-Rate Bounds for Distributed Estimation Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nihar Jindal

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available We deal with centralized and distributed rate-constrained estimation of random signal vectors performed using a network of wireless sensors (encoders communicating with a fusion center (decoder. For this context, we determine lower and upper bounds on the corresponding distortion-rate (D-R function. The nonachievable lower bound is obtained by considering centralized estimation with a single-sensor which has all observation data available, and by determining the associated D-R function in closed-form. Interestingly, this D-R function can be achieved using an estimate first compress afterwards (EC approach, where the sensor (i forms the minimum mean-square error (MMSE estimate for the signal of interest; and (ii optimally (in the MSE sense compresses and transmits it to the FC that reconstructs it. We further derive a novel alternating scheme to numerically determine an achievable upper bound of the D-R function for general distributed estimation using multiple sensors. The proposed algorithm tackles an analytically intractable minimization problem, while it accounts for sensor data correlations. The obtained upper bound is tighter than the one determined by having each sensor performing MSE optimal encoding independently of the others. Numerical examples indicate that the algorithm performs well and yields D-R upper bounds which are relatively tight with respect to analytical alternatives obtained without taking into account the cross-correlations among sensor data.

  1. Sleep Quality Estimation based on Chaos Analysis for Heart Rate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuda, Toshio; Wakuda, Yuki; Hasegawa, Yasuhisa; Arai, Fumihito; Kawaguchi, Mitsuo; Noda, Akiko

    In this paper, we propose an algorithm to estimate sleep quality based on a heart rate variability using chaos analysis. Polysomnography(PSG) is a conventional and reliable system to diagnose sleep disorder and to evaluate its severity and therapeatic effect, by estimating sleep quality based on multiple channels. However, a recording process requires a lot of time and a controlled environment for measurement and then an analyzing process of PSG data is hard work because the huge sensed data should be manually evaluated. On the other hand, it is focused that some people make a mistake or cause an accident due to lost of regular sleep and of homeostasis these days. Therefore a simple home system for checking own sleep is required and then the estimation algorithm for the system should be developed. Therefore we propose an algorithm to estimate sleep quality based only on a heart rate variability which can be measured by a simple sensor such as a pressure sensor and an infrared sensor in an uncontrolled environment, by experimentally finding the relationship between chaos indices and sleep quality. The system including the estimation algorithm can inform patterns and quality of own daily sleep to a user, and then the user can previously arranges his life schedule, pays more attention based on sleep results and consult with a doctor.

  2. Estimating an exchange rate between the EQ-5D-3L and ASCOT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Katherine; Brazier, John; Rowen, Donna

    2018-06-01

    The aim was to estimate an exchange rate between EQ-5D-3L and the Adult Social Care Outcome Tool (ASCOT) using preference-based mapping via common time trade-off (TTO) valuations. EQ-5D and ASCOT are useful for examining cost-effectiveness within the health and social care sectors, respectively, but there is a policy need to understand overall benefits and compare across sectors to assess relative value for money. Standard statistical mapping is unsuitable since it relies on conceptual overlap of the measures but EQ-5D and ASCOT have different conceptualisations of quality of life. We use a preference-based mapping approach to estimate the exchange rate using common TTO valuations for both measures. A sample of health states from each measure was valued using TTO by 200 members of the UK adult general population. Regression analyses are used to generate separate equations between EQ-5D-3L and ASCOT values using their original value set and TTO values elicited here. These are solved as simultaneous equations to estimate the relationship between EQ-5D-3L and ASCOT. The relationship for moving from ASCOT to EQ-5D-3L is a linear transformation with an intercept of -0.0488 and gradient of 0.978. This enables QALY gains generated by ASCOT and EQ-5D to be compared across different interventions. This paper estimated an exchange rate between ASCOT and EQ-5D-3L using a preference-based mapping approach that does not compromise the descriptive systems of the two measures. This contributes to the development of preference-based mapping through the use of TTO as the common metric used to estimate the exchange rate between measures.

  3. A Bayesian hierarchical model with novel prior specifications for estimating HIV testing rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Qian; Kang, Jian; Song, Ruiguang; Hall, H Irene

    2016-04-30

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a severe infectious disease actively spreading globally, and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is an advanced stage of HIV infection. The HIV testing rate, that is, the probability that an AIDS-free HIV infected person seeks a test for HIV during a particular time interval, given no previous positive test has been obtained prior to the start of the time, is an important parameter for public health. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with two levels of hierarchy to estimate the HIV testing rate using annual AIDS and AIDS-free HIV diagnoses data. At level one, we model the latent number of HIV infections for each year using a Poisson distribution with the intensity parameter representing the HIV incidence rate. At level two, the annual numbers of AIDS and AIDS-free HIV diagnosed cases and all undiagnosed cases stratified by the HIV infections at different years are modeled using a multinomial distribution with parameters including the HIV testing rate. We propose a new class of priors for the HIV incidence rate and HIV testing rate taking into account the temporal dependence of these parameters to improve the estimation accuracy. We develop an efficient posterior computation algorithm based on the adaptive rejection metropolis sampling technique. We demonstrate our model using simulation studies and the analysis of the national HIV surveillance data in the USA. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Estimation of build up of dose rate on U3O8 product drum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pandey, J.P.N.; Shinde, A.M.; Deshpande, M.D.

    2008-01-01

    In fuel reprocessing plant, plutonium oxide and uranium oxide (U 3 O 8 ) are products. Approximately 180 kg U 3 O 8 is filled in SS drum and sealed firmly before storage. In PHWR natural uranium (UO 2 ) is used as fuel. In natural uranium, thorium-232 is present as an impurity at few tens of ppm level. During irradiation in power reactors, due to nuclear reaction formation of 232 U from 232 Th takes place. Natural decay of 232 U leads to the formation of 208 Tl. As time passes, there is buildup of 208 Tl and hence increase in dose rate on the drum containing U 3 O 8 . It is essential to estimate the buildup of dose rate considering the external radiological hazards involved during U 3 O 8 drum handling, transportation and fuel fabrication. This paper describes the calculation of dose rate on drum in future years using MCNP code. For dose rate calculation decay of fission product activity which remains as contamination in product and build up of '2 08 Tl from 232 U is considered. Some measured values of dose rate on U 3 O 8 drum are given for the comparisons with estimated dose rate based on MCNP code. (author)

  5. Rate of formation of neutron stars in the galaxy estimated from stellar statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Endal, A.S.

    1979-01-01

    Stellar statistics and stellar evolution models can be used to estimate the rate of formation of neutron stars in the Galaxy. A recent analysis by Hills suggests that the mean interval between neutron-star births is greater than 27 years. This is incompatible with estimates based on pulsar statistics. However, a closer examination of the stellar data shows that Hill's result is incorrect. A mean interval between neutron-star births as short as 4 years is consistent with (though certainly not required by) stellar evolution theory

  6. Glomerular Filtration Rate Estimation in Renal and Non-Renal Solid Organ Transplantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hornum, Mads; Feldt-Rasmussen, Bo

    2017-01-01

    Following transplantation (TX) of both renal and non-renal organs, a large proportion of patients have renal dysfunction. There are multiple causes for this. Chronic nephrotoxicity and high doses of calcineurin inhibitors are important factors. Preoperative and perioperative factors like...... or estimates of renal function in these patients, in order to accurately and safely dose immunosuppressive medication and perform and adjust the treatment and prophylaxis of renal dysfunction. This is a short overview and discussion of relevant studies and possible caveats of estimated glomerular filtration...... rate methods for use in renal and non-renal TX....

  7. Turbulence suppression by E x B shear in JET optimized shear pulses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beer, M.A.; Budny, R.V.; Challis, C.D.; Conway, G.

    2000-01-01

    The authors calculate microinstability growth rates in JET optimized shear plasmas with a comprehensive gyrofluid model, including sheared E x B flows, trapped electrons, and all dominant ion species in realistic magnetic geometry. They find good correlation between E x B shear suppression of microinstabilities and both the formation and collapse of the internal transport barrier

  8. Estimation of permafrost thawing rates in a sub-arctic catchment using recession flow analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. W. Lyon

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Permafrost thawing is likely to change the flow pathways taken by water as it moves through arctic and sub-arctic landscapes. The location and distribution of these pathways directly influence the carbon and other biogeochemical cycling in northern latitude catchments. While permafrost thawing due to climate change has been observed in the arctic and sub-arctic, direct observations of permafrost depth are difficult to perform at scales larger than a local scale. Using recession flow analysis, it may be possible to detect and estimate the rate of permafrost thawing based on a long-term streamflow record. We demonstrate the application of this approach to the sub-arctic Abiskojokken catchment in northern Sweden. Based on recession flow analysis, we estimate that permafrost in this catchment may be thawing at an average rate of about 0.9 cm/yr during the past 90 years. This estimated thawing rate is consistent with direct observations of permafrost thawing rates, ranging from 0.7 to 1.3 cm/yr over the past 30 years in the region.

  9. Measurement of the incorporation rates of four amino acids into proteins for estimating bacterial production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servais, P

    1995-03-01

    In aquatic ecosystems, [(3)H]thymidine incorporation into bacterial DNA and [(3)H]leucine incorporation into proteins are usually used to estimate bacterial production. The incorporation rates of four amino acids (leucine, tyrosine, lysine, alanine) into proteins of bacteria were measured in parallel on natural freshwater samples from the basin of the river Meuse (Belgium). Comparison of the incorporation into proteins and into the total macromolecular fraction showed that these different amino acids were incorporated at more than 90% into proteins. From incorporation measurements at four subsaturated concentrations (range, 2-77 nm), the maximum incorporation rates were determined. Strong correlations (r > 0.91 for all the calculated correlations) were found between the maximum incorporation rates of the different tested amino acids over a range of two orders of magnitude of bacterial activity. Bacterial production estimates were calculated using theoretical and experimental conversion factors. The productions calculated from the incorporation rates of the four amino acids were in good concordance, especially when the experimental conversion factors were used (slope range, 0.91-1.11, and r > 0.91). This study suggests that the incorporation of various amino acids into proteins can be used to estimate bacterial production.

  10. Localised photoplethysmography imaging for heart rate estimation of pre-term infants in the clinic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaichulee, Sitthichok; Villarroel, Mauricio; Jorge, João.; Arteta, Carlos; Green, Gabrielle; McCormick, Kenny; Zisserman, Andrew; Tarassenko, Lionel

    2018-02-01

    Non-contact vital-sign estimation allows the monitoring of physiological parameters (such as heart rate, respiratory rate, and peripheral oxygen saturation) without contact electrodes or sensors. Our recent work has demonstrated that a convolutional neural network (CNN) can be used to detect the presence of a patient and segment the patient's skin area for vital-sign estimation, thus enabling the automatic continuous monitoring of vital signs in a hospital environment. In a study approved by the local Research Ethical Committee, we made video recordings of pre-term infants nursed in a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) at the John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford, UK. We extended the CNN model to detect the head, torso and diaper of the infants. We extracted multiple photoplethysmographic imaging (PPGi) signals from each body part, analysed their signal quality, and compared them with the PPGi signal derived from the entire skin area. Our results demonstrated the benefits of estimating heart rate combined from multiple regions of interest using data fusion. In the test dataset, we achieved a mean absolute error of 2.4 beats per minute for 80% (31.1 hours) from a total recording time of 38.5 hours for which both reference heart rate and video data were valid.

  11. Study of shear thickening behavior in colloidal suspensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N Maleki Jirsaraee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We studied the shear thickening behavior of the nano silica suspension (silica nanoparticles 12 nm in size suspended in ethylene glycol under steady shear. The critical shear rate for transition into shear thickening phase was determined at different concentrations and temperatures. The effect of temperature and concentration was studied on the shear thickening behavior. In silica suspension, it was observed that all the samples had a transition into shear thickening phase and also by increasing the temperature, critical shear rate increased and viscosity decreased. Our observations showed that movement in silica suspension was Brownian and temperature could cause a delay in transition into shear thickening phase. Yet, we observed that increasing the concentration would decrease critical shear rate and increase viscosity. Increasing temperature increased Brownian forces and increasing concentration increased hydrodynamic forces, confirming the contrast between these two forces for transition into shear thickening phase for the suspensions containing nano particles

  12. A novel recursive Fourier transform for nonuniform sampled signals: application to heart rate variability spectrum estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Alexander; Aboy, Mateo

    2009-07-01

    We present a novel method to iteratively calculate discrete Fourier transforms for discrete time signals with sample time intervals that may be widely nonuniform. The proposed recursive Fourier transform (RFT) does not require interpolation of the samples to uniform time intervals, and each iterative transform update of N frequencies has computational order N. Because of the inherent non-uniformity in the time between successive heart beats, an application particularly well suited for this transform is power spectral density (PSD) estimation for heart rate variability. We compare RFT based spectrum estimation with Lomb-Scargle Transform (LST) based estimation. PSD estimation based on the LST also does not require uniform time samples, but the LST has a computational order greater than Nlog(N). We conducted an assessment study involving the analysis of quasi-stationary signals with various levels of randomly missing heart beats. Our results indicate that the RFT leads to comparable estimation performance to the LST with significantly less computational overhead and complexity for applications requiring iterative spectrum estimations.

  13. Evaluation of Estimating Missed Answers in Conners Adult ADHD Rating Scale (Screening Version)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghassemi, Farnaz; Moradi, Mohammad Hassan; Tehrani-Doost, Mehdi

    2010-01-01

    Objective Conners Adult ADHD Rating Scale (CAARS) is among the valid questionnaires for evaluating Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in adults. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the validity of the estimation of missed answers in scoring the screening version of the Conners questionnaire, and to extract its principal components. Method This study was performed on 400 participants. Answer estimation was calculated for each question (assuming the answer was missed), and then a Kruskal-Wallis test was performed to evaluate the difference between the original answer and its estimation. In the next step, principal components of the questionnaire were extracted by means of Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Finally the evaluation of differences in the whole groups was provided using the Multiple Comparison Procedure (MCP). Results Findings indicated that a significant difference existed between the original and estimated answers for some particular questions. However, the results of MCP showed that this estimation, when evaluated in the whole group, did not show a significant difference with the original value in neither of the questionnaire subscales. The results of PCA revealed that there are eight principal components in the CAARS questionnaire. Conclusion The obtained results can emphasize the fact that this questionnaire is mainly designed for screening purposes, and this estimation does not change the results of groups when a question is missed randomly. Notwithstanding this finding, more considerations should be paid when the missed question is a critical one. PMID:22952502

  14. Evaluation of Estimating Missed Answers in Conners Adult ADHD Rating Scale (Screening Version

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Abootalebi

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available "n Objective: Conners Adult ADHD Rating Scale (CAARS is among the valid questionnaires for evaluating Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in adults. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the validity of the estimation of missed answers in scoring the screening version of the Conners questionnaire, and to extract its principal components. "n Method: This study was performed on 400 participants. Answer estimation was calculated for each question (assuming the answer was missed, and then a Kruskal-Wallis test was performed to evaluate the difference between the original answer and its estimation. In the next step, principal components of the questionnaire were extracted by means of Principal Component Analysis (PCA. Finally the evaluation of differences in the whole groups was provided using the Multiple Comparison Procedure (MCP. Results: Findings indicated that a significant difference existed between the original and estimated answers for some particular questions. However, the results of MCP showed that this estimation, when evaluated in the whole group, did not show a significant difference with the original value in neither of the questionnaire subscales. The results of PCA revealed that there are eight principal components in the CAARS questionnaire. Conclusion: The obtained results can emphasize the fact that this questionnaire is mainly designed for screening purposes, and this estimation does not change the results of groups when a question is missed randomly. Notwithstanding this finding, more considerations should be paid when the missed question is a critical one.

  15. New methods for estimating follow-up rates in cohort studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaonan Xue

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The follow-up rate, a standard index of the completeness of follow-up, is important for assessing the validity of a cohort study. A common method for estimating the follow-up rate, the “Percentage Method”, defined as the fraction of all enrollees who developed the event of interest or had complete follow-up, can severely underestimate the degree of follow-up. Alternatively, the median follow-up time does not indicate the completeness of follow-up, and the reverse Kaplan-Meier based method and Clark’s Completeness Index (CCI also have limitations. Methods We propose a new definition for the follow-up rate, the Person-Time Follow-up Rate (PTFR, which is the observed person-time divided by total person-time assuming no dropouts. The PTFR cannot be calculated directly since the event times for dropouts are not observed. Therefore, two estimation methods are proposed: a formal person-time method (FPT in which the expected total follow-up time is calculated using the event rate estimated from the observed data, and a simplified person-time method (SPT that avoids estimation of the event rate by assigning full follow-up time to all events. Simulations were conducted to measure the accuracy of each method, and each method was applied to a prostate cancer recurrence study dataset. Results Simulation results showed that the FPT has the highest accuracy overall. In most situations, the computationally simpler SPT and CCI methods are only slightly biased. When applied to a retrospective cohort study of cancer recurrence, the FPT, CCI and SPT showed substantially greater 5-year follow-up than the Percentage Method (92%, 92% and 93% vs 68%. Conclusions The Person-time methods correct a systematic error in the standard Percentage Method for calculating follow-up rates. The easy to use SPT and CCI methods can be used in tandem to obtain an accurate and tight interval for PTFR. However, the FPT is recommended when event rates and

  16. Intercomparison of techniques for estimation of sedimentation rate in the Sabah and Sarawak coastal waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zal U'yun Wan Mahmood; Zaharudin Ahmad; Abdul Kadir Ishak; Che Abd Rahim Mohamed

    2011-01-01

    A total of eight sediment cores with 50 cm length were taken in the Sabah and Sarawak coastal waters using a gravity corer in 2004 to estimate sedimentation rates using four mathematical models of CIC, Shukla-CIC, CRS and ADE. The average of sedimentation rate ranged from 0.24 to 0.48 cm year -1 , which is calculated based on the vertical profile of 210 Pbex in sediment core. The finding also showed that the sedimentation rates derived from four models were generally shown in good agreement with similar or comparable value at some stations. However, based on statistical analysis of paired sample t-test indicated that CIC model was the most accurate, reliable and suitable technique to determine the sedimentation rate in the coastal area. (author)

  17. Estimating cumulative soil accumulation rates with in situ-produced cosmogenic nuclide depth profiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, William M.

    2000-01-01

    A numerical model relating spatially averaged rates of cumulative soil accumulation and hillslope erosion to cosmogenic nuclide distribution in depth profiles is presented. Model predictions are compared with cosmogenic 21 Ne and AMS radiocarbon data from soils of the Pajarito Plateau, New Mexico. Rates of soil accumulation and hillslope erosion estimated by cosmogenic 21 Ne are significantly lower than rates indicated by radiocarbon and regional soil-geomorphic studies. The low apparent cosmogenic erosion rates are artifacts of high nuclide inheritance in cumulative soil parent material produced from erosion of old soils on hillslopes. In addition, 21 Ne profiles produced under conditions of rapid accumulation (>0.1 cm/a) are difficult to distinguish from bioturbated soil profiles. Modeling indicates that while 10 Be profiles will share this problem, both bioturbation and anomalous inheritance can be identified with measurement of in situ-produced 14 C

  18. Can the cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen be estimated with near-infrared spectroscopy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boas, D A; Strangman, G; Culver, J P; Hoge, R D; Jasdzewski, G; Poldrack, R A; Rosen, B R; Mandeville, J B

    2003-01-01

    We have measured the changes in oxy-haemoglobin and deoxy-haemoglobin in the adult human brain during a brief finger tapping exercise using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). The cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO 2 ) can be estimated from these NIRS data provided certain model assumptions. The change in CMRO 2 is related to changes in the total haemoglobin concentration, deoxy-haemoglobin concentration and blood flow. As NIRS does not provide a measure of dynamic changes in blood flow during brain activation, we relied on a Windkessel model that relates dynamic blood volume and flow changes, which has been used previously for estimating CMRO 2 from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Because of the partial volume effect we are unable to quantify the absolute changes in the local brain haemoglobin concentrations with NIRS and thus are unable to obtain an estimate of the absolute CMRO 2 change. An absolute estimate is also confounded by uncertainty in the flow-volume relationship. However, the ratio of the flow change to the CMRO 2 change is relatively insensitive to these uncertainties. For the finger tapping task, we estimate a most probable flow-consumption ratio ranging from 1.5 to 3 in agreement with previous findings presented in the literature, although we cannot exclude the possibility that there is no CMRO 2 change. The large range in the ratio arises from the large number of model parameters that must be estimated from the data. A more precise estimate of the flow-consumption ratio will require better estimates of the model parameters or flow information, as can be provided by combining NIRS with fMRI

  19. Evidence-based estimate of appropriate radiotherapy utilization rate for prostate cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foroudi, Farshad; Tyldesley, Scott; Barbera, Lisa; Huang, Jenny; Mackillop, William J.

    2003-01-01

    Purpose: Current estimates of the proportion of cancer patients who will require radiotherapy (RT) are based almost entirely on expert opinion. The objective of this study was to use an evidence-based approach to estimate the proportion of incident cases of prostate cancer that should receive RT at any point in the evolution of the illness. Methods and Materials: A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to identify indications for RT for prostate cancer and to ascertain the level of evidence that supported each indication. An epidemiologic approach was then used to estimate the incidence of each indication for RT in a typical North American population of prostate cancer patients. The effect of sampling error on the estimated appropriate rate of RT was calculated mathematically, and the effect of systematic error using alternative sources of information was estimated by sensitivity analysis. Results: It was estimated that 61.2% ±5.6% of prostate cancer cases develop one or more indications for RT at some point in the course of the illness. The plausible range for this rate was 57.3%-69.8% on sensitivity analysis. Of all prostate cancer patients, 32.2%±3.8% should receive RT in their initial treatment and 29.0% ± 4.1% later for recurrence or progression. The proportion of cases that ever require RT is risk grouping dependent; 43.9%±2.2% in low-risk disease, 68.7%± .5% in intermediate-risk disease; and 79.0% ± 3.8% in high-risk locoregional disease. For metastatic disease, the predicted rate was 66.4%±0.3%. Conclusion: This method provides a rational starting point for the long-term planning of radiation services and for the audit of access to RT at the population level. By completing such evaluations in major cancer sites, it will be possible to estimate the appropriate RT rate for the cancer population as a whole

  20. [Estimating glomerular filtration rate in 2012: which adding value for the CKD-EPI equation?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delanaye, Pierre; Mariat, Christophe; Moranne, Olivier; Cavalier, Etienne; Flamant, Martin

    2012-07-01

    Measuring or estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is still considered as the best way to apprehend global renal function. In 2009, the new Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology (CKD-EPI) equation has been proposed as a better estimator of GFR than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equation. This new equation is supposed to underestimate GFR to a lesser degree in higher GFR levels. In this review, we will present and deeply discuss the performances of this equation. Based on articles published between 2009 and 2012, this review will underline advantages, notably the better knowledge of chronic kidney disease prevalence, but also limitations of this new equation, especially in some specific populations. We eventually insist on the fact that all these equations are estimations and nephrologists should remain cautious in their interpretation. Copyright © 2012 Association Société de néphrologie. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  1. Evaluation and comparison of estimation methods for failure rates and probabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaurio, Jussi K. [Fortum Power and Heat Oy, P.O. Box 23, 07901 Loviisa (Finland)]. E-mail: jussi.vaurio@fortum.com; Jaenkaelae, Kalle E. [Fortum Nuclear Services, P.O. Box 10, 00048 Fortum (Finland)

    2006-02-01

    An updated parametric robust empirical Bayes (PREB) estimation methodology is presented as an alternative to several two-stage Bayesian methods used to assimilate failure data from multiple units or plants. PREB is based on prior-moment matching and avoids multi-dimensional numerical integrations. The PREB method is presented for failure-truncated and time-truncated data. Erlangian and Poisson likelihoods with gamma prior are used for failure rate estimation, and Binomial data with beta prior are used for failure probability per demand estimation. Combined models and assessment uncertainties are accounted for. One objective is to compare several methods with numerical examples and show that PREB works as well if not better than the alternative more complex methods, especially in demanding problems of small samples, identical data and zero failures. False claims and misconceptions are straightened out, and practical applications in risk studies are presented.

  2. Joint sensor location/power rating optimization for temporally-correlated source estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Bushnaq, Osama M.

    2017-12-22

    The optimal sensor selection for scalar state parameter estimation in wireless sensor networks is studied in the paper. A subset of N candidate sensing locations is selected to measure a state parameter and send the observation to a fusion center via wireless AWGN channel. In addition to selecting the optimal sensing location, the sensor type to be placed in these locations is selected from a pool of T sensor types such that different sensor types have different power ratings and costs. The sensor transmission power is limited based on the amount of energy harvested at the sensing location and the type of the sensor. The Kalman filter is used to efficiently obtain the MMSE estimator at the fusion center. Sensors are selected such that the MMSE estimator error is minimized subject to a prescribed system budget. This goal is achieved using convex relaxation and greedy algorithm approaches.

  3. An estimation of finger-tapping rates and load capacities and the effects of various factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekşioğlu, Mahmut; İşeri, Ali

    2015-06-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the finger-tapping rates and finger load capacities of eight fingers (excluding thumbs) for a healthy adult population and investigate the effects of various factors on tapping rate. Finger-tapping rate, the total number of finger taps per unit of time, can be used as a design parameter of various products and also as a psychomotor test for evaluating patients with neurologic problems. A 1-min tapping task was performed by 148 participants with maximum volitional tempo for each of eight fingers. For each of the tapping tasks, the participant with the corresponding finger tapped the associated key in the standard position on the home row of a conventional keyboard for touch typing. The index and middle fingers were the fastest fingers for both hands, and little fingers the slowest. All dominant-hand fingers, except little finger, had higher tapping rates than the fastest finger of the nondominant hand. Tapping rate decreased with age and smokers tapped faster than nonsmokers. Tapping duration and exercise had also significant effect on tapping rate. Normative data of tapping rates and load capacities of eight fingers were estimated for the adult population. In designs of psychomotor tests that require the use of tapping rate or finger load capacity data, the effects of finger, age, smoking, and tapping duration need to be taken into account. The findings can be used for ergonomic designs requiring finger-tapping capacity and also as a reference in psychomotor tests. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  4. The importance of ingestion rates for estimating food quality and energy intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schülke, Oliver; Chalise, Mukesh K; Koenig, Andreas

    2006-10-01

    Testing ecological or socioecological models in primatology often requires estimates of individual energy intake. It is a well established fact that the nutrient content (and hence the energy content) of primate food items is highly variable. The second variable in determining primate energy intake, i.e., the ingestion rate, has often been ignored, and few studies have attempted to estimate the relative importance of the two predictors. In the present study individual ingestion rates were measured in two ecologically very different populations of Hanuman langurs (Semnopithecus entellus) at Jodhpur, India, and Ramnagar, Nepal. Protein and soluble sugar concentrations in 50 and 100 food items. respectively, were measured using standardized methods. Variation in ingestion rates (gram of dry matter per minute) was markedly greater among food items than among langur individuals in both populations, but did not differ systematically among food item categories defined according to plant part and age. General linear models (GLMs) with ingestion rate, protein, and soluble sugar content explained 40-80% of the variation in energy intake rates (kJ/min). The relative importance of ingestion rates was either similar (Ramnagar) or much greater (Jodhpur) than the role of sugar and/or protein content in determining the energy intake rates of different items. These results may impact socioecological studies of variation in individual energy budgets, investigations of food choice in relation to chemical composition or sensory characteristics, and research into habitat preferences that measures habitat quality in terms of abundance of important food sources. We suggest a definition of food quality that includes not only the amount of valuable food contents (energy, vitamins, and minerals) and the digestibility of different foods, but also the rate at which the food can be harvested and processed. Such an extended definition seems necessary because time may constrain primates when

  5. A comparative review of estimates of the proportion unchanged genes and the false discovery rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Broberg Per

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the analysis of microarray data one generally produces a vector of p-values that for each gene give the likelihood of obtaining equally strong evidence of change by pure chance. The distribution of these p-values is a mixture of two components corresponding to the changed genes and the unchanged ones. The focus of this article is how to estimate the proportion unchanged and the false discovery rate (FDR and how to make inferences based on these concepts. Six published methods for estimating the proportion unchanged genes are reviewed, two alternatives are presented, and all are tested on both simulated and real data. All estimates but one make do without any parametric assumptions concerning the distributions of the p-values. Furthermore, the estimation and use of the FDR and the closely related q-value is illustrated with examples. Five published estimates of the FDR and one new are presented and tested. Implementations in R code are available. Results A simulation model based on the distribution of real microarray data plus two real data sets were used to assess the methods. The proposed alternative methods for estimating the proportion unchanged fared very well, and gave evidence of low bias and very low variance. Different methods perform well depending upon whether there are few or many regulated genes. Furthermore, the methods for estimating FDR showed a varying performance, and were sometimes misleading. The new method had a very low error. Conclusion The concept of the q-value or false discovery rate is useful in practical research, despite some theoretical and practical shortcomings. However, it seems possible to challenge the performance of the published methods, and there is likely scope for further developing the estimates of the FDR. The new methods provide the scientist with more options to choose a suitable method for any particular experiment. The article advocates the use of the conjoint information

  6. Ultrasonic 3-D Vector Flow Method for Quantitative In Vivo Peak Velocity and Flow Rate Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holbek, Simon; Ewertsen, Caroline; Bouzari, Hamed

    2017-01-01

    Current clinical ultrasound (US) systems are limited to show blood flow movement in either 1-D or 2-D. In this paper, a method for estimating 3-D vector velocities in a plane using the transverse oscillation method, a 32×32 element matrix array, and the experimental US scanner SARUS is presented...... is validated in two phantom studies, where flow rates are measured in a flow-rig, providing a constant parabolic flow, and in a straight-vessel phantom ( ∅=8 mm) connected to a flow pump capable of generating time varying waveforms. Flow rates are estimated to be 82.1 ± 2.8 L/min in the flow-rig compared...

  7. Estimation of groundwater flow rate using the decay of 222Rn in a well

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamada, Hiromasa

    1999-01-01

    A method of estimating groundwater flow rate using the decay of 222 Rn in a well was investigated. Field application revealed that infiltrated water (i.e., precipitation, pond water and irrigation water) accelerated groundwater flow. In addition, the depth at which groundwater was influenced by surface water was determined. The velocity of groundwater in a test well was estimated to be of the order of 10 -6 cm s -1 , based on the ratio of 222 Rn concentration in groundwater before and after it flowed into the well. This method is applicable for monitoring of groundwater flow rate where the velocity in a well is from 10 -5 to 10 -6 cm s -1

  8. Recursive Estimation for Dynamical Systems with Different Delay Rates Sensor Network and Autocorrelated Process Noises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianxin Feng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The recursive estimation problem is studied for a class of uncertain dynamical systems with different delay rates sensor network and autocorrelated process noises. The process noises are assumed to be autocorrelated across time and the autocorrelation property is described by the covariances between different time instants. The system model under consideration is subject to multiplicative noises or stochastic uncertainties. The sensor delay phenomenon occurs in a random way and each sensor in the sensor network has an individual delay rate which is characterized by a binary switching sequence obeying a conditional probability distribution. By using the orthogonal projection theorem and an innovation analysis approach, the desired recursive robust estimators including recursive robust filter, predictor, and smoother are obtained. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

  9. Entropy Rate Estimates for Natural Language—A New Extrapolation of Compressed Large-Scale Corpora

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryosuke Takahira

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the fundamental questions about human language is whether its entropy rate is positive. The entropy rate measures the average amount of information communicated per unit time. The question about the entropy of language dates back to experiments by Shannon in 1951, but in 1990 Hilberg raised doubt regarding a correct interpretation of these experiments. This article provides an in-depth empirical analysis, using 20 corpora of up to 7.8 gigabytes across six languages (English, French, Russian, Korean, Chinese, and Japanese, to conclude that the entropy rate is positive. To obtain the estimates for data length tending to infinity, we use an extrapolation function given by an ansatz. Whereas some ansatzes were proposed previously, here we use a new stretched exponential extrapolation function that has a smaller error of fit. Thus, we conclude that the entropy rates of human languages are positive but approximately 20% smaller than without extrapolation. Although the entropy rate estimates depend on the script kind, the exponent of the ansatz function turns out to be constant across different languages and governs the complexity of natural language in general. In other words, in spite of typological differences, all languages seem equally hard to learn, which partly confirms Hilberg’s hypothesis.

  10. Enhancement of leak rate estimation model for corroded cracked thin tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Y.S.; Jeong, J.U.; Kim, Y.J.; Hwang, S.S.; Kim, H.P.

    2010-01-01

    During the last couple of decades, lots of researches on structural integrity assessment and leak rate estimation have been carried out to prevent unanticipated catastrophic failures of pressure retaining nuclear components. However, from the standpoint of leakage integrity, there are still some arguments for predicting the leak rate of cracked components due primarily to uncertainties attached to various parameters in flow models. The purpose of present work is to suggest a leak rate estimation method for thin tubes with artificial cracks. In this context, 23 leak rate tests are carried out for laboratory generated stress corrosion cracked tube specimens subjected to internal pressure. Engineering equations to calculate crack opening displacements are developed from detailed three-dimensional elastic-plastic finite element analyses and then a simplified practical model is proposed based on the equations as well as test data. Verification of the proposed method is done through comparing leak rates and it will enable more reliable design and/or operation of thin tubes.

  11. Real-time data for estimating a forward-looking interest rate rule of the ECB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tilman Bletzinger

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the data presented in this article is to use it in ex post estimations of interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB, as it is done by Bletzinger and Wieland (2017 [1]. The data is of quarterly frequency from 1999 Q1 until 2013 Q2 and consists of the ECB's policy rate, inflation rate, real output growth and potential output growth in the euro area. To account for forward-looking decision making in the interest rate rule, the data consists of expectations about future inflation and output dynamics. While potential output is constructed based on data from the European Commission's annual macro-economic database, inflation and real output growth are taken from two different sources both provided by the ECB: the Survey of Professional Forecasters and projections made by ECB staff. Careful attention was given to the publication date of the collected data to ensure a real-time dataset only consisting of information which was available to the decision makers at the time of the decision. Keywords: Interest rate rule estimation, Real-time data, Forward-looking data

  12. Estimation of the production rate of bacteria in the rumen of buffalo calves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, U.B.; Verma, D.N.; Varma, A.; Ranjhan, S.K.

    1976-01-01

    The rate of bacterial cell growth in the rumen of buffalo calves has been measured applying the isotope dilution technique by injecting labelled mixed rumen bacteria into the rumen, and expressing the specific radioactivity either per mg dry bacterial cells or per μg DAPA in whole rumen samples. The animals were fed daily about 15-20 kg chopped green maize in 12 equal amounts at 2-h intervals. There was no significant difference in the rate of production of bacteria estimated by either method. (author)

  13. Propargyl Recombination: Estimation of the High Temperature, Low Pressure Rate Constant from Flame Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Christian Lund; Skjøth-Rasmussen, Martin Skov; Jensen, Anker

    2005-01-01

    The most important cyclization reaction in hydrocarbon flames is probably recombination of propargyl radicals. This reaction may, depending on reaction conditions, form benzene, phenyl or fulvene, as well as a range of linear products. A number of rate measurements have been reported for C3H3 + C3H......3 at temperatures below 1000 K, while data at high temperature and low pressure only can be obtained from flames. In the present work, an estimate of the rate constant for the reaction at 1400 +/- 50 K and 20 Torr is obtained from analysis of the fuel-rich acetylene flame of Westmoreland, Howard...

  14. Can accelerometry data improve estimates of heart rate variability from wrist pulse PPG sensors?*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kos, Maciej; Li, Xuan; Khaghani-Far, Iman; Gordon, Christine M.; Pavel, Misha; Jimison Member, Holly B.

    2018-01-01

    A key prerequisite for precision medicine is the ability to assess metrics of human behavior objectively, unobtrusively and continuously. This capability serves as a framework for the optimization of tailored, just-in-time precision health interventions. Mobile unobtrusive physiological sensors, an important prerequisite for realizing this vision, show promise in implementing this quality of physiological data collection. However, first we must trust the collected data. In this paper, we present a novel approach to improving heart rate estimates from wrist pulse photoplethysmography (PPG) sensors. We also discuss the impact of sensor movement on the veracity of collected heart rate data. PMID:29060185

  15. Can accelerometry data improve estimates of heart rate variability from wrist pulse PPG sensors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kos, Maciej; Xuan Li; Khaghani-Far, Iman; Gordon, Christine M; Pavel, Misha; Jimison, Holly B

    2017-07-01

    A key prerequisite for precision medicine is the ability to assess metrics of human behavior objectively, unobtrusively and continuously. This capability serves as a framework for the optimization of tailored, just-in-time precision health interventions. Mobile unobtrusive physiological sensors, an important prerequisite for realizing this vision, show promise in implementing this quality of physiological data collection. However, first we must trust the collected data. In this paper, we present a novel approach to improving heart rate estimates from wrist pulse photoplethysmography (PPG) sensors. We also discuss the impact of sensor movement on the veracity of collected heart rate data.

  16. Comparison of estimated and background subsidence rates in Texas-Louisiana geopressured geothermal areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, L.M.; Clayton, M.; Everingham, J.; Harding, R.C.; Massa, A.

    1982-06-01

    A comparison of background and potential geopressured geothermal development-related subsidence rates is given. Estimated potential geopressured-related rates at six prospects are presented. The effect of subsidence on the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast is examined including the various associated ground movements and the possible effects of these ground movements on surficial processes. The relationships between ecosystems and subsidence, including the capability of geologic and biologic systems to adapt to subsidence, are analyzed. The actual potential for environmental impact caused by potential geopressured-related subsidence at each of four prospects is addressed. (MHR)

  17. Estimation of Leak Rate from the Emergency Pump Well in L-Area Complex Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, A

    2005-01-01

    This report provides an estimate of the leak rate from the emergency pump well in L-basin that is to be expected during an off-normal event. This estimate is based on expected shrinkage of the engineered grout (i.e., controlled low strength material) used to fill the emergency pump well and the header pipes that provide the dominant leak path from the basin to the lower levels of the L-Area Complex. The estimate will be used to provide input into the operating safety basis to ensure that the water level in the basin will remain above a certain minimum level. The minimum basin water level is specified to ensure adequate shielding for personnel and maintain the ''as low as reasonably achievable'' concept of radiological exposure. The need for the leak rate estimation is the existence of a gap between the fill material and the header pipes, which penetrate the basin wall and would be the primary leak path in the event of a breach in those pipes. The gap between the pipe and fill material was estimated based on a full scale demonstration pour that was performed and examined. Leak tests were performed on full scale pipes as a part of this examination. Leak rates were measured to be on the order of 0.01 gallons/minute for completely filled pipe (vertically positioned) and 0.25 gallons/minute for partially filled pipe (horizontally positioned). This measurement was for water at 16 feet head pressure and with minimal corrosion or biofilm present. The effect of the grout fill on the inside surface biofilm of the pipes is the subject of a previous memorandum

  18. A variational technique to estimate snowfall rate from coincident radar, snowflake, and fall-speed observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Steven J.; Wood, Norman B.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.

    2017-07-01

    Estimates of snowfall rate as derived from radar reflectivities alone are non-unique. Different combinations of snowflake microphysical properties and particle fall speeds can conspire to produce nearly identical snowfall rates for given radar reflectivity signatures. Such ambiguities can result in retrieval uncertainties on the order of 100-200 % for individual events. Here, we use observations of particle size distribution (PSD), fall speed, and snowflake habit from the Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) to constrain estimates of snowfall derived from Ka-band ARM zenith radar (KAZR) measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope Alaska (NSA) Climate Research Facility site at Barrow. MASC measurements of microphysical properties with uncertainties are introduced into a modified form of the optimal-estimation CloudSat snowfall algorithm (2C-SNOW-PROFILE) via the a priori guess and variance terms. Use of the MASC fall speed, MASC PSD, and CloudSat snow particle model as base assumptions resulted in retrieved total accumulations with a -18 % difference relative to nearby National Weather Service (NWS) observations over five snow events. The average error was 36 % for the individual events. Use of different but reasonable combinations of retrieval assumptions resulted in estimated snowfall accumulations with differences ranging from -64 to +122 % for the same storm events. Retrieved snowfall rates were particularly sensitive to assumed fall speed and habit, suggesting that in situ measurements can help to constrain key snowfall retrieval uncertainties. More accurate knowledge of these properties dependent upon location and meteorological conditions should help refine and improve ground- and space-based radar estimates of snowfall.

  19. The rate test of speciation: estimating the likelihood of non-allopatric speciation from reproductive isolation rates in Drosophila.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yukilevich, Roman

    2014-04-01

    Among the most debated subjects in speciation is the question of its mode. Although allopatric (geographical) speciation is assumed the null model, the importance of parapatric and sympatric speciation is extremely difficult to assess and remains controversial. Here I develop a novel approach to distinguish these modes of speciation by studying the evolution of reproductive isolation (RI) among taxa. I focus on the Drosophila genus, for which measures of RI are known. First, I incorporate RI into age-range correlations. Plots show that almost all cases of weak RI are between allopatric taxa whereas sympatric taxa have strong RI. This either implies that most reproductive isolation (RI) was initiated in allopatry or that RI evolves too rapidly in sympatry to be captured at incipient stages. To distinguish between these explanations, I develop a new "rate test of speciation" that estimates the likelihood of non-allopatric speciation given the distribution of RI rates in allopatry versus sympatry. Most sympatric taxa were found to have likely initiated RI in allopatry. However, two putative candidate species pairs for non-allopatric speciation were identified (5% of known Drosophila). In total, this study shows how using RI measures can greatly inform us about the geographical mode of speciation in nature. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  20. Shear-tensile crack as a tool for reliable estimates of the non-double-couple mechanism: West Bohemia-Vogtland earthquake 1997 swarm

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šílený, Jan; Horálek, Josef

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 95, October (2016), s. 113-124 ISSN 1474-7065 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP210/12/2235; GA ČR(CZ) GA16-03950S Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : earthquake mechanism * moment tensor * shear-tensile crack * confidence regions Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.426, year: 2016

  1. Estimation of exponential convergence rate and exponential stability for neural networks with time-varying delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tu Fenghua; Liao Xiaofeng

    2005-01-01

    We study the problem of estimating the exponential convergence rate and exponential stability for neural networks with time-varying delay. Some criteria for exponential stability are derived by using the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. They are less conservative than the existing ones. Some analytical methods are employed to investigate the bounds on the interconnection matrix and activation functions so that the systems are exponentially stable

  2. Experimental estimation of mutation rates in a wheat population with a gene genealogy approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raquin, Anne-Laure; Depaulis, Frantz; Lambert, Amaury; Galic, Nathalie; Brabant, Philippe; Goldringer, Isabelle

    2008-08-01

    Microsatellite markers are extensively used to evaluate genetic diversity in natural or experimental evolving populations. Their high degree of polymorphism reflects their high mutation rates. Estimates of the mutation rates are therefore necessary when characterizing diversity in populations. As a complement to the classical experimental designs, we propose to use experimental populations, where the initial state is entirely known and some intermediate states have been thoroughly surveyed, thus providing a short timescale estimation together with a large number of cumulated meioses. In this article, we derived four original gene genealogy-based methods to assess mutation rates with limited bias due to relevant model assumptions incorporating the initial state, the number of new alleles, and the genetic effective population size. We studied the evolution of genetic diversity at 21 microsatellite markers, after 15 generations in an experimental wheat population. Compared to the parents, 23 new alleles were found in generation 15 at 9 of the 21 loci studied. We provide evidence that they arose by mutation. Corresponding estimates of the mutation rates ranged from 0 to 4.97 x 10(-3) per generation (i.e., year). Sequences of several alleles revealed that length polymorphism was only due to variation in the core of the microsatellite. Among different microsatellite characteristics, both the motif repeat number and an independent estimation of the Nei diversity were correlated with the novel diversity. Despite a reduced genetic effective size, global diversity at microsatellite markers increased in this population, suggesting that microsatellite diversity should be used with caution as an indicator in biodiversity conservation issues.

  3. Rate estimation in partially observed Markov jump processes with measurement errors

    OpenAIRE

    Amrein, Michael; Kuensch, Hans R.

    2010-01-01

    We present a simulation methodology for Bayesian estimation of rate parameters in Markov jump processes arising for example in stochastic kinetic models. To handle the problem of missing components and measurement errors in observed data, we embed the Markov jump process into the framework of a general state space model. We do not use diffusion approximations. Markov chain Monte Carlo and particle filter type algorithms are introduced, which allow sampling from the posterior distribution of t...

  4. Erratum Haldane and the first estimates of the human mutation rate

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Published on the Web: 1 December 2008. Erratum. Haldane and the first estimates of the human mutation rate. (A commentary on J.B.S. Haldane 1935 J. Genet. 31, 317–326; reprinted in volume 83, 235–244 as a J. Genet. classic). Michael W. Nachman. J. Genet. 83, 231–233. Page 1, right column, para 1, line 6 from ...

  5. Exponential convergence rate estimation for uncertain delayed neural networks of neutral type

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lien, C.-H.; Yu, K.-W.; Lin, Y.-F.; Chung, Y.-J.; Chung, L.-Y.

    2009-01-01

    The global exponential stability for a class of uncertain delayed neural networks (DNNs) of neutral type is investigated in this paper. Delay-dependent and delay-independent criteria are proposed to guarantee the robust stability of DNNs via LMI and Razumikhin-like approaches. For a given delay, the maximal allowable exponential convergence rate will be estimated. Some numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of our results. The simulation results reveal significant improvement over the recent results.

  6. Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleanor S Devenish Nelson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.

  7. Rating curve estimation using Envisat virtual stations on the main Orinoco river

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan León

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Rating curve estimation (height-stream relation made by hydrometric stations representing cross-sections of a river is one of hydrometrics’ fundamental tasks due to the fact that it leads to deducing a river’s average daily flow on that particular section. This information is fundamental in any attempt at hydrological modelling. However, the number of hydrological control stations monitoring large hydrological basins has been reduced worldwide. Space hydrology studies during the last five years have shown that satellite radar altimetry means that hydrological monitoring networks’ available information can be densified due to the introduction of so-called virtual stations and the joint use of such information along with in-situ measured flow records for estimating expenditure curves at these stations. This study presents the rating curves for 4 Envisat virtual stations located on the main stream of the Orinoco River. Virtual stations’ flows were estimated by using the Muskingum- Cunge 1D model. There was less than 1% error between measured and estimated flows. The methodology led to reducing average zero flow depth; in this case, it led to depths ranging from 11 to 20 meters being found along the 130 km of the Orinoco River represented by the virtual stations being considered.

  8. Variation in the standard deviation of the lure rating distribution: Implications for estimates of recollection probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dopkins, Stephen; Varner, Kaitlin; Hoyer, Darin

    2017-10-01

    In word recognition semantic priming of test words increased the false-alarm rate and the mean of confidence ratings to lures. Such priming also increased the standard deviation of confidence ratings to lures and the slope of the z-ROC function, suggesting that the priming increased the standard deviation of the lure evidence distribution. The Unequal Variance Signal Detection (UVSD) model interpreted the priming as increasing the standard deviation of the lure evidence distribution. Without additional parameters the Dual Process Signal Detection (DPSD) model could only accommodate the results by fitting the data for related and unrelated primes separately, interpreting the priming, implausibly, as decreasing the probability of target recollection (DPSD). With an additional parameter, for the probability of false (lure) recollection the model could fit the data for related and unrelated primes together, interpreting the priming as increasing the probability of false recollection. These results suggest that DPSD estimates of target recollection probability will decrease with increases in the lure confidence/evidence standard deviation unless a parameter is included for false recollection. Unfortunately the size of a given lure confidence/evidence standard deviation relative to other possible lure confidence/evidence standard deviations is often unspecified by context. Hence the model often has no way of estimating false recollection probability and thereby correcting its estimates of target recollection probability.

  9. Spacecraft Angular Rates Estimation with Gyrowheel Based on Extended High Gain Observer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaokun Liu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available A gyrowheel (GW is a kind of electronic electric-mechanical servo system, which can be applied to a spacecraft attitude control system (ACS as both an actuator and a sensor simultaneously. In order to solve the problem of two-dimensional spacecraft angular rate sensing as a GW outputting three-dimensional control torque, this paper proposed a method of an extended high gain observer (EHGO with the derived GW mathematical model to implement the spacecraft angular rate estimation when the GW rotor is working at large angles. For this purpose, the GW dynamic equation is firstly derived with the second kind Lagrange method, and the relationship between the measurable and unmeasurable variables is built. Then, the EHGO is designed to estimate and calculate spacecraft angular rates with the GW, and the stability of the designed EHGO is proven by the Lyapunov function. Moreover, considering the engineering application, the effect of measurement noise in the tilt angle sensors on the estimation accuracy of the EHGO is analyzed. Finally, the numerical simulation is performed to illustrate the validity of the method proposed in this paper.

  10. Divergence times in Caenorhabditis and Drosophila inferred from direct estimates of the neutral mutation rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutter, Asher D

    2008-04-01

    Accurate inference of the dates of common ancestry among species forms a central problem in understanding the evolutionary history of organisms. Molecular estimates of divergence time rely on the molecular evolutionary prediction that neutral mutations and substitutions occur at the same constant rate in genomes of related species. This underlies the notion of a molecular clock. Most implementations of this idea depend on paleontological calibration to infer dates of common ancestry, but taxa with poor fossil records must rely on external, potentially inappropriate, calibration with distantly related species. The classic biological models Caenorhabditis and Drosophila are examples of such problem taxa. Here, I illustrate internal calibration in these groups with direct estimates of the mutation rate from contemporary populations that are corrected for interfering effects of selection on the assumption of neutrality of substitutions. Divergence times are inferred among 6 species each of Caenorhabditis and Drosophila, based on thousands of orthologous groups of genes. I propose that the 2 closest known species of Caenorhabditis shared a common ancestor <24 MYA (Caenorhabditis briggsae and Caenorhabditis sp. 5) and that Caenorhabditis elegans diverged from its closest known relatives <30 MYA, assuming that these species pass through at least 6 generations per year; these estimates are much more recent than reported previously with molecular clock calibrations from non-nematode phyla. Dates inferred for the common ancestor of Drosophila melanogaster and Drosophila simulans are roughly concordant with previous studies. These revised dates have important implications for rates of genome evolution and the origin of self-fertilization in Caenorhabditis.

  11. Unsupervised heart-rate estimation in wearables with Liquid states and a probabilistic readout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Anup; Pradhapan, Paruthi; Groenendaal, Willemijn; Adiraju, Prathyusha; Rajan, Raj Thilak; Catthoor, Francky; Schaafsma, Siebren; Krichmar, Jeffrey L; Dutt, Nikil; Van Hoof, Chris

    2018-03-01

    Heart-rate estimation is a fundamental feature of modern wearable devices. In this paper we propose a machine learning technique to estimate heart-rate from electrocardiogram (ECG) data collected using wearable devices. The novelty of our approach lies in (1) encoding spatio-temporal properties of ECG signals directly into spike train and using this to excite recurrently connected spiking neurons in a Liquid State Machine computation model; (2) a novel learning algorithm; and (3) an intelligently designed unsupervised readout based on Fuzzy c-Means clustering of spike responses from a subset of neurons (Liquid states), selected using particle swarm optimization. Our approach differs from existing works by learning directly from ECG signals (allowing personalization), without requiring costly data annotations. Additionally, our approach can be easily implemented on state-of-the-art spiking-based neuromorphic systems, offering high accuracy, yet significantly low energy footprint, leading to an extended battery-life of wearable devices. We validated our approach with CARLsim, a GPU accelerated spiking neural network simulator modeling Izhikevich spiking neurons with Spike Timing Dependent Plasticity (STDP) and homeostatic scaling. A range of subjects is considered from in-house clinical trials and public ECG databases. Results show high accuracy and low energy footprint in heart-rate estimation across subjects with and without cardiac irregularities, signifying the strong potential of this approach to be integrated in future wearable devices. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Contraceptive failure rates: new estimates from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, H; Darroch, J E; Haas, T; Ranjit, N

    1999-01-01

    Unintended pregnancy remains a major public health concern in the United States. Information on pregnancy rates among contraceptive users is needed to guide medical professionals' recommendations and individuals' choices of contraceptive methods. Data were taken from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) and the 1994-1995 Abortion Patient Survey (APS). Hazards models were used to estimate method-specific contraceptive failure rates during the first six months and during the first year of contraceptive use for all U.S. women. In addition, rates were corrected to take into account the underreporting of induced abortion in the NSFG. Corrected 12-month failure rates were also estimated for subgroups of women by age, union status, poverty level, race or ethnicity, and religion. When contraceptive methods are ranked by effectiveness over the first 12 months of use (corrected for abortion underreporting), the implant and injectables have the lowest failure rates (2-3%), followed by the pill (8%), the diaphragm and the cervical cap (12%), the male condom (14%), periodic abstinence (21%), withdrawal (24%) and spermicides (26%). In general, failure rates are highest among cohabiting and other unmarried women, among those with an annual family income below 200% of the federal poverty level, among black and Hispanic women, among adolescents and among women in their 20s. For example, adolescent women who are not married but are cohabiting experience a failure rate of about 31% in the first year of contraceptive use, while the 12-month failure rate among married women aged 30 and older is only 7%. Black women have a contraceptive failure rate of about 19%, and this rate does not vary by family income; in contrast, overall 12-month rates are lower among Hispanic women (15%) and white women (10%), but vary by income, with poorer women having substantially greater failure rates than more affluent women. Levels of contraceptive failure vary widely by method, as well as by

  13. Three-Axis Attitude Estimation With a High-Bandwidth Angular Rate Sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayard, David S.; Green, Joseph J.

    2013-01-01

    A continuing challenge for modern instrument pointing control systems is to meet the increasingly stringent pointing performance requirements imposed by emerging advanced scientific, defense, and civilian payloads. Instruments such as adaptive optics telescopes, space interferometers, and optical communications make unprecedented demands on precision pointing capabilities. A cost-effective method was developed for increasing the pointing performance for this class of NASA applications. The solution was to develop an attitude estimator that fuses star tracker and gyro measurements with a high-bandwidth angular rotation sensor (ARS). An ARS is a rate sensor whose bandwidth extends well beyond that of the gyro, typically up to 1,000 Hz or higher. The most promising ARS sensor technology is based on a magnetohydrodynamic concept, and has recently become available commercially. The key idea is that the sensor fusion of the star tracker, gyro, and ARS provides a high-bandwidth attitude estimate suitable for supporting pointing control with a fast-steering mirror or other type of tip/tilt correction for increased performance. The ARS is relatively inexpensive and can be bolted directly next to the gyro and star tracker on the spacecraft bus. The high-bandwidth attitude estimator fuses an ARS sensor with a standard three-axis suite comprised of a gyro and star tracker. The estimation architecture is based on a dual-complementary filter (DCF) structure. The DCF takes a frequency- weighted combination of the sensors such that each sensor is most heavily weighted in a frequency region where it has the lowest noise. An important property of the DCF is that it avoids the need to model disturbance torques in the filter mechanization. This is important because the disturbance torques are generally not known in applications. This property represents an advantage over the prior art because it overcomes a weakness of the Kalman filter that arises when fusing more than one rate

  14. Estimation of microbial respiration rates in groundwater by geochemical modeling constrained with stable isotopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, E.M.

    1998-01-01

    Changes in geochemistry and stable isotopes along a well-established groundwater flow path were used to estimate in situ microbial respiration rates in the Middendorf aquifer in the southeastern United States. Respiration rates were determined for individual terminal electron acceptors including O 2 , MnO 2 , Fe 3+ , and SO 4 2- . The extent of biotic reactions were constrained by the fractionation of stable isotopes of carbon and sulfur. Sulfur isotopes and the presence of sulfur-oxidizing microorganisms indicated that sulfate is produced through the oxidation of reduced sulfur species in the aquifer and not by the dissolution of gypsum, as previously reported. The respiration rates varied along the flow path as the groundwater transitioned between primarily oxic to anoxic conditions. Iron-reducing microorganisms were the largest contributors to the oxidation of organic matter along the portion of the groundwater flow path investigated in this study. The transition zone between oxic and anoxic groundwater contained a wide range of terminal electron acceptors and showed the greatest diversity and numbers of culturable microorganisms and the highest respiration rates. A comparison of respiration rates measured from core samples and pumped groundwater suggests that variability in respiration rates may often reflect the measurement scales, both in the sample volume and the time-frame over which the respiration measurement is averaged. Chemical heterogeneity may create a wide range of respiration rates when the scale of the observation is below the scale of the heterogeneity

  15. Dose rate estimates from irradiated light-water-reactor fuel assemblies in air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lloyd, W.R.; Sheaffer, M.K.; Sutcliffe, W.G.

    1994-01-01

    It is generally considered that irradiated spent fuel is so radioactive (self-protecting) that it can only be moved and processed with specialized equipment and facilities. However, a small, possibly subnational, group acting in secret with no concern for the environment (other than the reduction of signatures) and willing to incur substantial but not lethal radiation doses, could obtain plutonium by stealing and processing irradiated spent fuel that has cooled for several years. In this paper, we estimate the dose rate at various distances and directions from typical pressurized-water reactor (PWR) and boiling-water reactor (BWR) spent-fuel assemblies as a function of cooling time. Our results show that the dose rate is reduced rapidly for the first ten years after exposure in the reactor, and that it is reduced by a factor of ∼10 (from the one year dose rate) after 15 years. Even for fuel that has cooled for 15 years, a lethal dose (LD50) of 450 rem would be received at 1 m from the center of the fuel assembly after several minutes. However, moving from 1 to 5 m reduces the dose rate by over a factor of 10, and moving from 1 to 10 m reduces the dose rate by about a factor of 50. The dose rates 1 m from the top or bottom of the assembly are considerably less (about 10 and 22%, respectively) than 1 m from the center of the assembly, which is the direction of the maximum dose rate

  16. State-space dynamic model for estimation of radon entry rate, based on Kalman filtering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brabec, Marek; Jilek, Karel

    2007-01-01

    To predict the radon concentration in a house environment and to understand the role of all factors affecting its behavior, it is necessary to recognize time variation in both air exchange rate and radon entry rate into a house. This paper describes a new approach to the separation of their effects, which effectively allows continuous estimation of both radon entry rate and air exchange rate from simultaneous tracer gas (carbon monoxide) and radon gas measurement data. It is based on a state-space statistical model which permits quick and efficient calculations. Underlying computations are based on (extended) Kalman filtering, whose practical software implementation is easy. Key property is the model's flexibility, so that it can be easily adjusted to handle various artificial regimens of both radon gas and CO gas level manipulation. After introducing the statistical model formally, its performance will be demonstrated on real data from measurements conducted in our experimental, naturally ventilated and unoccupied room. To verify our method, radon entry rate calculated via proposed statistical model was compared with its known reference value. The results from several days of measurement indicated fairly good agreement (up to 5% between reference value radon entry rate and its value calculated continuously via proposed method, in average). Measured radon concentration moved around the level approximately 600 Bq m -3 , whereas the range of air exchange rate was 0.3-0.8 (h -1 )

  17. Estimated rate of agricultural injury: the Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Objectives This study estimated the rate of agricultural injury using a nationwide survey and identified factors associated with these injuries. Methods The first Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey (KFODIS) was conducted by the Rural Development Administration in 2009. Data from 9,630 adults were collected through a household survey about agricultural injuries suffered in 2008. We estimated the injury rates among those whose injury required an absence of more than 4 days. Logistic regression was performed to identify the relationship between the prevalence of agricultural injuries and the general characteristics of the study population. Results We estimated that 3.2% (±0.00) of Korean farmers suffered agricultural injuries that required an absence of more than 4 days. The injury rates among orchard farmers (5.4 ± 0.00) were higher those of all non-orchard farmers. The odds ratio (OR) for agricultural injuries was significantly lower in females (OR: 0.45, 95% CI = 0.45–0.45) compared to males. However, the odds of injury among farmers aged 50–59 (OR: 1.53, 95% CI = 1.46–1.60), 60–69 (OR: 1.45, 95% CI = 1.39–1.51), and ≥70 (OR: 1.94, 95% CI = 1.86–2.02) were significantly higher compared to those younger than 50. In addition, the total number of years farmed, average number of months per year of farming, and average hours per day of farming were significantly associated with agricultural injuries. Conclusions Agricultural injury rates in this study were higher than rates reported by the existing compensation insurance data. Males and older farmers were at a greater risk of agriculture injuries; therefore, the prevention and management of agricultural injuries in this population is required. PMID:24808945

  18. Estimated rate of agricultural injury: the Korean Farmers' Occupational Disease and Injury Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chae, Hyeseon; Min, Kyungdoo; Youn, Kanwoo; Park, Jinwoo; Kim, Kyungran; Kim, Hyocher; Lee, Kyungsuk

    2014-01-01

    This study estimated the rate of agricultural injury using a nationwide survey and identified factors associated with these injuries. The first Korean Farmers' Occupational Disease and Injury Survey (KFODIS) was conducted by the Rural Development Administration in 2009. Data from 9,630 adults were collected through a household survey about agricultural injuries suffered in 2008. We estimated the injury rates among those whose injury required an absence of more than 4 days. Logistic regression was performed to identify the relationship between the prevalence of agricultural injuries and the general characteristics of the study population. We estimated that 3.2% (±0.00) of Korean farmers suffered agricultural injuries that required an absence of more than 4 days. The injury rates among orchard farmers (5.4 ± 0.00) were higher those of all non-orchard farmers. The odds ratio (OR) for agricultural injuries was significantly lower in females (OR: 0.45, 95% CI = 0.45-0.45) compared to males. However, the odds of injury among farmers aged 50-59 (OR: 1.53, 95% CI = 1.46-1.60), 60-69 (OR: 1.45, 95% CI = 1.39-1.51), and ≥70 (OR: 1.94, 95% CI = 1.86-2.02) were significantly higher compared to those younger than 50. In addition, the total number of years farmed, average number of months per year of farming, and average hours per day of farming were significantly associated with agricultural injuries. Agricultural injury rates in this study were higher than rates reported by the existing compensation insurance data. Males and older farmers were at a greater risk of agriculture injuries; therefore, the prevention and management of agricultural injuries in this population is required.

  19. Combined methodology for estimating dose rates and health effects from exposure to radioactive pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Yalcintas, M.G.

    1980-12-01

    The work described in the report is basically a synthesis of two previously existing computer codes: INREM II, developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and CAIRD, developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The INREM II code uses contemporary dosimetric methods to estimate doses to specified reference organs due to inhalation or ingestion of a radionuclide. The CAIRD code employs actuarial life tables to account for competing risks in estimating numbers of health effects resulting from exposure of a cohort to some incremental risk. The combined computer code, referred to as RADRISK, estimates numbers of health effects in a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 persons due to continuous lifetime inhalation or ingestion of a radionuclide. Also briefly discussed in this report is a method of estimating numbers of health effects in a hypothetical cohort due to continuous lifetime exposure to external radiation. This method employs the CAIRD methodology together with dose conversion factors generated by the computer code DOSFACTER, developed at ORNL; these dose conversion factors are used to estimate dose rates to persons due to radionuclides in the air or on the ground surface. The combination of the life table and dosimetric guidelines for the release of radioactive pollutants to the atmosphere, as required by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977.

  20. A simplified 137Cs transport model for estimating erosion rates in undisturbed soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xinbao; Long Yi; He Xiubin; Fu Jiexiong; Zhang Yunqi

    2008-01-01

    137 Cs is an artificial radionuclide with a half-life of 30.12 years which released into the environment as a result of atmospheric testing of thermo-nuclear weapons primarily during the period of 1950s-1970s with the maximum rate of 137 Cs fallout from atmosphere in 1963. 137 Cs fallout is strongly and rapidly adsorbed by fine particles in the surface horizons of the soil, when it falls down on the ground mostly with precipitation. Its subsequent redistribution is associated with movements of the soil or sediment particles. The 137 Cs nuclide tracing technique has been used for assessment of soil losses for both undisturbed and cultivated soils. For undisturbed soils, a simple profile-shape model was developed in 1990 to describe the 137 Cs depth distribution in profile, where the maximum 137 Cs occurs in the surface horizon and it exponentially decreases with depth. The model implied that the total 137 Cs fallout amount deposited on the earth surface in 1963 and the 137 Cs profile shape has not changed with time. The model has been widely used for assessment of soil losses on undisturbed land. However, temporal variations of 137 Cs depth distribution in undisturbed soils after its deposition on the ground due to downward transport processes are not considered in the previous simple profile-shape model. Thus, the soil losses are overestimated by the model. On the base of the erosion assessment model developed by Walling, D.E., He, Q. [1999. Improved models for estimating soil erosion rates from cesium-137 measurements. Journal of Environmental Quality 28, 611-622], we discuss the 137 Cs transport process in the eroded soil profile and make some simplification to the model, develop a method to estimate the soil erosion rate more expediently. To compare the soil erosion rates calculated by the simple profile-shape model and the simple transport model, the soil losses related to different 137 Cs loss proportions of the reference inventory at the Kaixian site of the

  1. Glomerular filtration rate estimated from the uptake phase of 99mTc-DTPA renography in chronic renal failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, L J; Petersen, J R; Talleruphuus, U

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to compare the estimation of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) from 99mTc-DTPA renography with that estimated from the renal clearance of 51Cr-EDTA, creatinine and urea.......The purpose of the study was to compare the estimation of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) from 99mTc-DTPA renography with that estimated from the renal clearance of 51Cr-EDTA, creatinine and urea....

  2. A comparison of small-area hospitalisation rates, estimated morbidity and hospital access.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulman, H; Birkin, M; Clarke, G P

    2015-11-01

    Published data on hospitalisation rates tend to reveal marked spatial variations within a city or region. Such variations may simply reflect corresponding variations in need at the small-area level. However, they might also be a consequence of poorer accessibility to medical facilities for certain communities within the region. To help answer this question it is important to compare these variable hospitalisation rates with small-area estimates of need. This paper first maps hospitalisation rates at the small-area level across the region of Yorkshire in the UK to show the spatial variations present. Then the Health Survey of England is used to explore the characteristics of persons with heart disease, using chi-square and logistic regression analysis. Using the most significant variables from this analysis the authors build a spatial microsimulation model of morbidity for heart disease for the Yorkshire region. We then compare these estimates of need with the patterns of hospitalisation rates seen across the region. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Environmental radioactivity in the UK: the airborne geophysical view of dose rate estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beamish, David

    2014-01-01

    This study considers UK airborne gamma-ray data obtained through a series of high spatial resolution, low altitude surveys over the past decade. The ground concentrations of the naturally occurring radionuclides Potassium, Thorium and Uranium are converted to air absorbed dose rates and these are used to assess terrestrial exposure levels from both natural and technologically enhanced sources. The high resolution airborne information is also assessed alongside existing knowledge from soil sampling and ground-based measurements of exposure levels. The surveys have sampled an extensive number of the UK lithological bedrock formations and the statistical information provides examples of low dose rate lithologies (the formations that characterise much of southern England) to the highest sustained values associated with granitic terrains. The maximum dose rates (e.g. >300 nGy h −1 ) encountered across the sampled granitic terrains are found to vary by a factor of 2. Excluding granitic terrains, the most spatially extensive dose rates (>50 nGy h −1 ) are found in association with the Mercia Mudstone Group (Triassic argillaceous mudstones) of eastern England. Geological associations between high dose rate and high radon values are also noted. Recent studies of the datasets have revealed the extent of source rock (i.e. bedrock) flux attenuation by soil moisture in conjunction with the density and porosity of the temperate latitude soils found in the UK. The presence or absence of soil cover (and associated presence or absence of attenuation) appears to account for a range of localised variations in the exposure levels encountered. The hypothesis is supported by a study of an extensive combined data set of dose rates obtained from soil sampling and by airborne geophysical survey. With no attenuation factors applied, except those intrinsic to the airborne estimates, a bias to high values of between 10 and 15 nGy h −1 is observed in the soil data. A wide range of

  4. Incorporation of radiometric tracers in peat and implications for estimating accumulation rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansson, Sophia V., E-mail: sophia.hansson@emg.umu.se [Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, SE-901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Kaste, James M. [Geology Department, The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23187 (United States); Olid, Carolina; Bindler, Richard [Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, SE-901 87 Umeå (Sweden)

    2014-09-15

    Accurate dating of peat accumulation is essential for quantitatively reconstructing past changes in atmospheric metal deposition and carbon burial. By analyzing fallout radionuclides {sup 210}Pb, {sup 137}Cs, {sup 241}Am, and {sup 7}Be, and total Pb and Hg in 5 cores from two Swedish peatlands we addressed the consequence of estimating accumulation rates due to downwashing of atmospherically supplied elements within peat. The detection of {sup 7}Be down to 18–20 cm for some cores, and the broad vertical distribution of {sup 241}Am without a well-defined peak, suggest some downward transport by percolating rainwater and smearing of atmospherically deposited elements in the uppermost peat layers. Application of the CRS age–depth model leads to unrealistic peat mass accumulation rates (400–600 g m{sup −2} yr{sup −1}), and inaccurate estimates of past Pb and Hg deposition rates and trends, based on comparisons to deposition monitoring data (forest moss biomonitoring and wet deposition). After applying a newly proposed IP-CRS model that assumes a potential downward transport of {sup 210}Pb through the uppermost peat layers, recent peat accumulation rates (200–300 g m{sup −2} yr{sup −1}) comparable to published values were obtained. Furthermore, the rates and temporal trends in Pb and Hg accumulation correspond more closely to monitoring data, although some off-set is still evident. We suggest that downwashing can be successfully traced using {sup 7}Be, and if this information is incorporated into age–depth models, better calibration of peat records with monitoring data and better quantitative estimates of peat accumulation and past deposition are possible, although more work is needed to characterize how downwashing may vary between seasons or years. - Highlights: • {sup 210}Pb, {sup 137}Cs, {sup 241}Am and {sup 7}Be, and tot-Pb and tot Hg were measured in 5 peat cores. • Two age–depth models were applied resulting in different accumulation rates

  5. Estimated glomerular filtration rate in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Caitano Fontela

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to estimate the glomerular filtration using the Cockcroft-Gault (CG, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD, and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI equations, and serum creatinine in the screening of reduced renal function in patients with type two diabetes (T2DM enrolled in the Family Health Strategy (ESF, Brazilian federal health-care program. Methods: a cross-sectional descriptive and analytical study was conducted. The protocol consisted of sociodemographics, physical examination and biochemical tests. Renal function was analyzed through serum creatinine and glomerular filtration rate (GFR estimated according to the CG, MDRD and CKD-EPI equations, available on the websites of the Brazilian Nephrology Society (SBN and the (NKF. Results: 146 patients aged 60.9±8.9 years were evaluated; 64.4% were women. The prevalence of serum creatinine >1.2 mg/dL was 18.5% and GFR <60 mL/min/1.73m2 totaled 25.3, 36.3 and 34.2% when evaluated by the equations CG, MDRD and CKD-EPI, respectively. Diabetic patients with reduced renal function were older, had long-term T2DM diagnosis, higher systolic blood pressure and higher levels of fasting glucose, compared to diabetics with normal renal function. Creatinine showed strong negative correlation with the glomerular filtration rate estimated using CG, MDRD and CKD-EPI (-0.64, -0.87, -0.89 equations, respectively. Conclusion: the prevalence of individuals with reduced renal function based on serum creatinine was lower, reinforcing the need to follow the recommendations of the SBN and the National Kidney Disease Education Program (NKDEP in estimating the value of the glomerular filtration rate as a complement to the results of serum creatinine to better assess the renal function of patients.

  6. Dose rate estimation of the Tohoku hynobiid salamander, Hynobius lichenatus, in Fukushima.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuma, Shoichi; Ihara, Sadao; Kawaguchi, Isao; Ishikawa, Takahiro; Watanabe, Yoshito; Kubota, Yoshihisa; Sato, Youji; Takahashi, Hiroyuki; Aono, Tatsuo; Ishii, Nobuyoshi; Soeda, Haruhi; Matsui, Kumi; Une, Yumi; Minamiya, Yukio; Yoshida, Satoshi

    2015-05-01

    The radiological risks to the Tohoku hynobiid salamanders (class Amphibia), Hynobius lichenatus due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident were assessed in Fukushima Prefecture, including evacuation areas. Aquatic egg clutches (n = 1 for each sampling date and site; n = 4 in total), overwintering larvae (n = 1-5 for each sampling date and site; n = 17 in total), and terrestrial juveniles or adults (n = 1 or 3 for each sampling date and site; n = 12 in total) of H. lichenatus were collected from the end of April 2011 to April 2013. Environmental media such as litter (n = 1-5 for each sampling date and site; n = 30 in total), soil (n = 1-8 for each sampling date and site; n = 31 in total), water (n = 1 for each sampling date and site; n = 17 in total), and sediment (n = 1 for each sampling date and site; n = 17 in total) were also collected. Activity concentrations of (134)Cs + (137)Cs were 1.9-2800, 0.13-320, and 0.51-220 kBq (dry kg) (-1) in the litter, soil, and sediment samples, respectively, and were 0.31-220 and <0.29-40 kBq (wet kg)(-1) in the adult and larval salamanders, respectively. External and internal absorbed dose rates to H. lichenatus were calculated from these activity concentration data, using the ERICA Assessment Tool methodology. External dose rates were also measured in situ with glass dosimeters. There was agreement within a factor of 2 between the calculated and measured external dose rates. In the most severely contaminated habitat of this salamander, a northern part of Abukuma Mountains, the highest total dose rates were estimated to be 50 and 15 μGy h(-1) for the adults and overwintering larvae, respectively. Growth and survival of H. lichenatus was not affected at a dose rate of up to 490 μGy h(-1) in the previous laboratory chronic gamma-irradiation experiment, and thus growth and survival of this salamander would not be affected, even in the most severely contaminated habitat in Fukushima Prefecture. However, further

  7. Air kerma rate estimation by means of in-situ gamma spectrometry: A Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabal, Gonzalo; Kluson, Jaroslav

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Bayesian inference is used to determine the Air Kerma Rate based on a set of in situ environmental gamma spectra measurements performed with a NaI(Tl) scintillation detector. A natural advantage of such approach is the possibility to quantify uncertainty not only in the Air Kerma Rate estimation but also for the gamma spectra which is unfolded within the procedure. The measurements were performed using a 3'' x 3'' NaI(Tl) scintillation detector. The response matrices of such detection system were calculated using a Monte Carlo code. For the calculations of the spectra as well as the Air Kerma Rate the WinBugs program was used. WinBugs is a dedicated software for Bayesian inference using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The results of such calculations are shown and compared with other non-Bayesian approachs such as the Scofield-Gold iterative method and the Maximum Entropy Method

  8. Estimation of fuel burning rate and heating value with highly variable properties for optimum combustion control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsi, C.-L.; Kuo, J.-T.

    2008-01-01

    Estimating solid residue gross burning rate and heating value burning in a power plant furnace is essential for adequate manipulation to achieve energy conversion optimization and plant performance. A model based on conservation equations of mass and thermal energy is established in this work to calculate the instantaneous gross burning rate and lower heating value of solid residue fired in a combustion chamber. Comparing the model with incineration plant control room data indicates that satisfactory predictions of fuel burning rates and heating values can be obtained by assuming the moisture-to-carbon atomic ratio (f/a) within the typical range from 1.2 to 1.8. Agreement between mass and thermal analysis and the bed-chemistry model is acceptable. The model would be useful for furnace fuel and air control strategy programming to achieve optimum performance in energy conversion and pollutant emission reduction

  9. Estimated glomerular filtration rate, chronic kidney disease and antiretroviral drug use in HIV-positive patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mocroft, Amanda; Kirk, Ole; Reiss, Peter

    2010-01-01

    with at least three serum creatinine measurements and corresponding body weight measurements from 2004 onwards. METHODS:: CKD was defined as either confirmed (two measurements >/=3 months apart) estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 60 ml/min per 1.73 m or below for persons with baseline eGFR of above...... cumulative exposure to tenofovir [incidence rate ratio (IRR) per year 1.16, 95% CI 1.06-1.25, P ... increased rate of CKD. Consistent results were observed in wide-ranging sensitivity analyses, although of marginal statistical significance for lopinavir/r. No other antiretroviral dugs were associated with increased incidence of CKD. CONCLUSION:: In this nonrandomized large cohort, increasing exposure...

  10. A method for estimating failure rates for low probability events arising in PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorne, M.C.; Williams, M.M.R.

    1995-01-01

    The authors develop a method for predicting failure rates and failure probabilities per event when, over a given test period or number of demands, no failures have occurred. A Bayesian approach is adopted to calculate a posterior probability distribution for the failure rate or failure probability per event subsequent to the test period. This posterior is then used to estimate effective failure rates or probabilities over a subsequent period of time or number of demands. In special circumstances, the authors results reduce to the well-known rules of thumb, viz: 1/N and 1/T, where N is the number of demands during the test period for no failures and T is the test period for no failures. However, the authors are able to give strict conditions on the validity of these rules of thumb and to improve on them when necessary

  11. Use of virtual reality to estimate radiation dose rates in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Augusto, Silas C.; Mol, Antonio C.A.; Jorge, Carlos A.F.; Couto, Pedro M.

    2007-01-01

    Operators in nuclear plants receive radiation doses during several different operation procedures. A training program capable of simulating these operation scenarios will be useful in several ways, helping the planning of operational procedures so as to reduce the doses received by workers, and to minimize operations' times. It can provide safe virtual operation training, visualization of radiation dose rates, and estimation of doses received by workers. Thus, a virtual reality application, a free game engine, has been adapted to achieve the goals of this project. Simulation results for Argonauta research reactor of Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear are shown in this paper. A database of dose rate measurements, previously performed by the radiological protection service, has been used to display the dose rate distribution in the region of interest. The application enables the user to walk in the virtual scenario, displaying at all times the dose accumulated by the avatar. (author)

  12. Plutonium Discharge Rates and Spent Nuclear Fuel Inventory Estimates for Nuclear Reactors Worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brian K. Castle; Shauna A. Hoiland; Richard A. Rankin; James W. Sterbentz

    2012-09-01

    This report presents a preliminary survey and analysis of the five primary types of commercial nuclear power reactors currently in use around the world. Plutonium mass discharge rates from the reactors’ spent fuel at reload are estimated based on a simple methodology that is able to use limited reactor burnup and operational characteristics collected from a variety of public domain sources. Selected commercial reactor operating and nuclear core characteristics are also given for each reactor type. In addition to the worldwide commercial reactors survey, a materials test reactor survey was conducted to identify reactors of this type with a significant core power rating. Over 100 material or research reactors with a core power rating >1 MW fall into this category. Fuel characteristics and spent fuel inventories for these material test reactors are also provided herein.

  13. Estimating the erosion and deposition rates in a small watershed by the 137Cs tracing method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Mian; Li Zhanbin; Yao Wenyi; Liu Puling

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the erosion and deposition rates in a small watershed is important for designing soil and water conservation measures. The objective of this study is to estimate the net soil loss and gain at points with various land use types and landform positions in a small watershed in the Sichuan Hilly Basin of China by the 137 Cs tracing technique. Among various land use types, the order of erosion rate was bare rock > sloping cultivated land > forest land. The paddy field and Caotu (a kind of cultivated land located at the foot of hills) were depositional areas. The erosion rate under different landform was in this order: hillside > saddle > hilltop. The footslope and the valley were depositional areas. The 137 Cs technique was shown to provide an effective means of documenting the spatial distribution of soil erosion and deposition within the small watershed

  14. THE LESSER ROLE OF SHEAR IN GALACTIC STAR FORMATION: INSIGHT FROM THE GALACTIC RING SURVEY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dib, Sami; Dariush, Ali [Astrophysics Group, Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Helou, George [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Moore, Toby J. T. [Astrophysics Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, Twelve Quays House, Egerton Wharf, Birkenhead CH41 1LD (United Kingdom); Urquhart, James S., E-mail: s.dib@imperial.ac.uk [Max-Planck Institut fuer Radioastronomie, Auf dem Huegel 69, 53121 Bonn (Germany)

    2012-10-20

    We analyze the role played by shear in regulating star formation in the Galaxy on the scale of individual molecular clouds. The clouds are selected from the {sup 13}CO J = 1-0 line of the Galactic Ring Survey. For each cloud, we estimate the shear parameter which describes the ability of density perturbations to grow within the cloud. We find that for almost all molecular clouds considered, there is no evidence that shear is playing a significant role in opposing the effects of self-gravity. We also find that the shear parameter of the clouds does not depend on their position in the Galaxy. Furthermore, we find no correlations between the shear parameter of the clouds with several indicators of their star formation activity. No significant correlation is found between the shear parameter and the star formation efficiency of the clouds which is measured using the ratio of the massive young stellar objects luminosities, measured in the Red MSX survey, to the cloud mass. There are also no significant correlations between the shear parameter and the fraction of their mass that is found in denser clumps which is a proxy for their clump formation efficiency, nor with their level of fragmentation expressed in the number of clumps per unit mass. Our results strongly suggest that shear is playing only a minor role in affecting the rates and efficiencies at which molecular clouds convert their gas into dense cores and thereafter into stars.

  15. THE LESSER ROLE OF SHEAR IN GALACTIC STAR FORMATION: INSIGHT FROM THE GALACTIC RING SURVEY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dib, Sami; Dariush, Ali; Helou, George; Moore, Toby J. T.; Urquhart, James S.

    2012-01-01

    We analyze the role played by shear in regulating star formation in the Galaxy on the scale of individual molecular clouds. The clouds are selected from the 13 CO J = 1-0 line of the Galactic Ring Survey. For each cloud, we estimate the shear parameter which describes the ability of density perturbations to grow within the cloud. We find that for almost all molecular clouds considered, there is no evidence that shear is playing a significant role in opposing the effects of self-gravity. We also find that the shear parameter of the clouds does not depend on their position in the Galaxy. Furthermore, we find no correlations between the shear parameter of the clouds with several indicators of their star formation activity. No significant correlation is found between the shear parameter and the star formation efficiency of the clouds which is measured using the ratio of the massive young stellar objects luminosities, measured in the Red MSX survey, to the cloud mass. There are also no significant correlations between the shear parameter and the fraction of their mass that is found in denser clumps which is a proxy for their clump formation efficiency, nor with their level of fragmentation expressed in the number of clumps per unit mass. Our results strongly suggest that shear is playing only a minor role in affecting the rates and efficiencies at which molecular clouds convert their gas into dense cores and thereafter into stars.

  16. Trends in pregnancies and pregnancy rates by outcome: estimates for the United States, 1976-96.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura, S J; Mosher, W D; Curtin, S C; Abma, J C; Henshaw, S

    2000-01-01

    This report presents national estimates of pregnancies and pregnancy rates according to women's age, race, and Hispanic origin, and by marital status, race, and Hispanic origin. Data are presented for 1976-96. Data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) are used to show information on sexual activity, contraceptive practices, and infertility, as well as women's reports of pregnancy intentions. Tables of pregnancy rates and the factors affecting pregnancy rates are presented and interpreted. Birth data are from the birth-registration system for all births registered in the United States and reported by State health departments to NCHS; abortion data are from The Alan Guttmacher Institute (AGI) and the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); and fetal loss data are from pregnancy history information collected in the NSFG. In 1996 an estimated 6.24 million pregnancies resulted in 3.89 million live births, 1.37 million induced abortions, and 0.98 million fetal losses. The pregnancy rate in 1996 was 104.7 pregnancies per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years, 9 percent lower than in 1990 (115.6), and the lowest recorded since 1976 (102.7). Since 1990 rates have dropped 8 percent for live births, 16 percent for induced abortions, and 4 percent for fetal losses. The teenage pregnancy rate has declined considerably in the 1990's, falling 15 percent from its 1991 high of 116.5 per 1,000 women aged 15-19 years to 98.7 in 1996. Among the factors accounting for this decline are decreased sexual activity, increases in condom use, and the adoption of the injectable and implant contraceptives.

  17. Genome-Wide Estimates of Transposable Element Insertion and Deletion Rates in Drosophila Melanogaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adrion, Jeffrey R.; Song, Michael J.; Schrider, Daniel R.; Hahn, Matthew W.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Knowing the rate at which transposable elements (TEs) insert and delete is critical for understanding their role in genome evolution. We estimated spontaneous rates of insertion and deletion for all known, active TE superfamilies present in a set of Drosophila melanogaster mutation-accumulation (MA) lines using whole genome sequence data. Our results demonstrate that TE insertions far outpace TE deletions in D. melanogaster. We found a significant effect of background genotype on TE activity, with higher rates of insertions in one MA line. We also found significant rate heterogeneity between the chromosomes, with both insertion and deletion rates elevated on the X relative to the autosomes. Further, we identified significant associations between TE activity and chromatin state, and tested for associations between TE activity and other features of the local genomic environment such as TE content, exon content, GC content, and recombination rate. Our results provide the most detailed assessment of TE mobility in any organism to date, and provide a useful benchmark for both addressing theoretical predictions of TE dynamics and for exploring large-scale patterns of TE movement in D. melanogaster and other species. PMID:28338986

  18. Explaining the variation in the shear force of lamb meat using sarcomere length, the rate of rigor onset and pH.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, D L; Toohey, E S; Lamb, T A; Kerr, M J; van de Ven, R; Refshauge, G

    2011-08-01

    The temperature when the pH=6.0 (temp@pH6) impacts on the tenderness and eating quality of sheep meat. Due to the expense, sarcomere length is not routinely measured as a variable to explain variation in shear force, but whether measures such as temp@pH6 are as useful a parameter needs to be established. Measures of rigor onset in 261 carcases, including the temp@pH6, were evaluated in this study for their ability to explain some of the variation in shear force. The results show that for 1 day aged product combinations of the temp@pH6, the pH at 18 °C and the pH at 24 h provided a larger reduction (almost double) in total shear force variation than sarcomere length alone, with pH at 24 h being the single best measure. For 5 day aged product, pH at 18 °C was the single best measure. Inclusion of sarcomere length did represent some improvement, but the marginal increase would not be cost effective. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Wavelet denoising method; application to the flow rate estimation for water level control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Gee Young; Park, Jin Ho; Lee, Jung Han; Kim, Bong Soo; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2003-01-01

    The wavelet transform decomposes a signal into time- and frequency-domain signals and it is well known that a noise-corrupted signal could be reconstructed or estimated when a proper denoising method is involved in the wavelet transform. Among the wavelet denoising methods proposed up to now, the wavelets by Mallat and Zhong can reconstruct best the pure transient signal from a highly corrupted signal. But there has been no systematic way of discriminating the original signal from the noise in a dyadic wavelet transform. In this paper, a systematic method is proposed for noise discrimination, which could be implemented easily into a digital system. For demonstrating the potential role of the wavelet denoising method in the nuclear field, this method is applied to the steam or feedwater flow rate estimation of the secondary loop. And the configuration of the S/G water level control system is proposed for incorporating the wavelet denoising method in estimating the flow rate value at low operating powers

  20. Estimation of rate constants of PCB dechlorination reactions using an anaerobic dehalogenation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakas, Filiz; Imamoglu, Ipek

    2017-02-15

    This study aims to estimate anaerobic dechlorination rate constants (k m ) of reactions of individual PCB congeners using data from four laboratory microcosms set up using sediment from Baltimore Harbor. Pathway k m values are estimated by modifying a previously developed model as Anaerobic Dehalogenation Model (ADM) which can be applied to any halogenated hydrophobic organic (HOC). Improvements such as handling multiple dechlorination activities (DAs) and co-elution of congeners, incorporating constraints, using new goodness of fit evaluation led to an increase in accuracy, speed and flexibility of ADM. DAs published in the literature in terms of chlorine substitutions as well as specific microorganisms and their combinations are used for identification of pathways. The best fit explaining the congener pattern changes was found for pathways of Phylotype DEH10, which has the ability to remove doubly flanked chlorines in meta and para positions, para flanked chlorines in meta position. The range of estimated k m values is between 0.0001-0.133d -1 , the median of which is found to be comparable to the few available published biologically confirmed rate constants. Compound specific modelling studies such as that performed by ADM can enable monitoring and prediction of concentration changes as well as toxicity during bioremediation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.