Severe Weather Field Experience: An Undergraduate Field Course on Career Enhancement and Severe Convective Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Godfrey, Christopher M.; Barrett, Bradford S.; Godfrey, Elaine S.

2011-01-01

Undergraduate students acquire a deeper understanding of scientific principles through first-hand experience. To enhance the learning environment for atmospheric science majors, the University of North Carolina at Asheville has developed the severe weather field experience. Participants travel to Tornado Alley in the Great Plains to forecast and…

Evaluation of Lightning Jumps as a Predictor of Severe Weather in the Northeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Eck, Pamela

Severe weather events in the northeastern United States can be challenging to forecast, given how the evolution of deep convection can be influenced by complex terrain and the lack of quality observations in complex terrain. To supplement existing observations, this study explores using lightning to forecast severe convection in areas of complex terrain in the northeastern United States. A sudden increase in lightning flash rate by two standard deviations (2sigma), also known as a lightning jump, may be indicative of a strengthening updraft and an increased probability of severe weather. This study assesses the value of using lightning jumps to forecast severe weather during July 2015 in the northeastern United States. Total lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) is used to calculate lightning jumps using a 2sigma lightning jump algorithm with a minimum threshold of 5 flashes min-1. Lightning jumps are used to predict the occurrence of severe weather, as given by whether a Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather report occurred 45 min after a lightning jump in the same cell. Results indicate a high probability of detection (POD; 85%) and a high false alarm rate (FAR; 89%), suggesting that lightning jumps occur in sub-severe storms. The interaction between convection and complex terrain results in a locally enhanced updraft and an increased probability of severe weather. Thus, it is hypothesized that conditioning on an upslope variable may reduce the FAR. A random forest is introduced to objectively combine upslope flow, calculated using data from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), flash rate (FR), and flash rate changes with time (DFRDT). The random forest, a machine-learning algorithm, uses pattern recognition to predict a severe or non-severe classification based on the predictors. In addition to upslope flow, FR, and DFRDT, Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) Level III radar data was also included as a predictor to compare its

A Sounding-based Severe Weather Tool to Support Daily Operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Science.gov (United States)

Bauman, William H.; Roeder, William P.

2014-01-01

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Development and Application of Syndromic Surveillance for Severe Weather Events Following Hurricane Sandy.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Stella; Hamby, Teresa; Chu, Alvin; Gleason, Jessie A; Goodrow, Gabrielle M; Gu, Hui; Lifshitz, Edward; Fagliano, Jerald A

2016-06-01

Following Hurricane Superstorm Sandy, the New Jersey Department of Health (NJDOH) developed indicators to enhance syndromic surveillance for extreme weather events in EpiCenter, an online system that collects and analyzes real-time chief complaint emergency department (ED) data and classifies each visit by indicator or syndrome. These severe weather indicators were finalized by using 2 steps: (1) key word inclusion by review of chief complaints from cases where diagnostic codes met selection criteria and (2) key word exclusion by evaluating cases with key words of interest that lacked selected diagnostic codes. Graphs compared 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year periods of 8 Hurricane Sandy-related severe weather event indicators against the same period in the following year. Spikes in overall ED visits were observed immediately after the hurricane for carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning, the 3 disrupted outpatient medical care indicators, asthma, and methadone-related substance use. Zip code level scan statistics indicated clusters of CO poisoning and increased medicine refill needs during the 2 weeks after Hurricane Sandy. CO poisoning clusters were identified in areas with power outages of 4 days or longer. This endeavor gave the NJDOH a clearer picture of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and yielded valuable state preparation information to monitor the effects of future severe weather events. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:463-471).

Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

2017-03-01

The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

A Synoptic Climatology of Combined Severe/Weather/Flash Flood Events

Science.gov (United States)

Pallozzi, Kyle J.

Classical forms of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging convective wind gusts, and large hail, as well as flash flooding events, all have potentially large societal impacts. This impact is further magnified when these hazards occur simultaneously in time and space. A major challenge for operational forecasters is how to accurately predict the occurrence of combined storm hazards, and how to communicate the associated multiple threat hazards to the public. A seven-year climatology (2009-2015) of combined severe weather/flash flooding (SVR/FF) events across the contiguous United States was developed in attempt to study the combined SVR/FF event hazards further. A total of 211 total cases were identified and sub-divided into seven subcategories based on their convective morphology and meteorological characteristics. Heatmaps of event report frequency were created to extract spatial, seasonal and interannual patterns in SVR/FF event activity. Diurnal trends were examined from time series plots of tornado, hail, wind and flash flood/flood reports. Event-centered composites of environmental variables were created for each subcategory from 13 km RUC/RAP analyses. Representative cases studies were conducted for each subcategory. A "ring of fire" with the highest levels of SVR/FF event activity was noted across the central United States. SVR/FF events were least common in the Southeast, High Plains, and Northern Plains. Enhanced SVR/FF activity reflected contributions from synoptic events during the cool and shoulder seasons over the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee Valleys, and MCS activity during the warm season over the lower Great Plains, and the Upper Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. Results from the composite analyses indicated that relatively high values of CAPE, surface-500 hPa shear and precipitable water were observed for all subcategories. Case studies show that many high-end SVR/FF events featured slow-moving, or quasi

Tourists and severe weather : An exploration of the role of 'Locus of Responsibility' in protective behaviour decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jeuring, Jelmer; Becken, Susanne

Severe weather events can impact negatively on tourism and put tourists at risk. To reduce vulnerability, tourists should be aware of and be prepared for possible severe weather. Seeking risk information, a type of protective action behaviour, is an important way to reduce vulnerability. This paper

Creating a comprehensive quality-controlled dataset of severe weather occurrence in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Groenemeijer, P.; Kühne, T.; Liang, Z.; Holzer, A.; Feuerstein, B.; Dotzek, N.

2010-09-01

Ground-truth quality-controlled data on severe weather occurrence is required for meaningful research on severe weather hazards. Such data are collected by observation networks of several authorities in Europe, most prominently the National Hydrometeorological Institutes (NHMS). However, some events challenge the capabilities of such conventional networks by their isolated and short-lived nature. These rare and very localized but extreme events include thunderstorm wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes and are poorly resolved by synoptic observations. Moreover, their detection by remote-sensing techniques such as radar and satellites is in development and has proven to be difficult. Using the fact that all across across Europe there are many people with a special personal or professional interest in such events, who are typically organized in associations, allows pursuing a different strategy. Data delivered to the European Severe Weather Database is recorded and quality controlled by ESSL and a large number of partners including the Hydrometeorological Institutes of Germany, Finland, Austria, Italy and Bulgaria. Additionally, nine associations of storm spotters and centres of expertise in these and other countries are involved. The two categories of organizations (NHMSes/other) each have different privileges in the quality control procedure, which involves assigning a quality level of QC0+ (plausibility checked), QC1 (confirmed by reliable sources) or QC2 (verified) to each of the reports. Within the EWENT project funded by the EU 7th framework programme, the RegioExakt project funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research, and with support from the German Weather Service (DWD), several enhancements of the ESWD have been and will be carried out. Completed enhancements include the creation of an interface that allows partner organizations to upload data automatically, in the case of our German partner "Skywarn Germany" in near-real time. Moreover, the

National Space Weather Program Advances on Several Fronts

Science.gov (United States)

Gunzelman, Mark; Babcock, Michael

2008-10-01

The National Space Weather Program (NSWP; http://www.nswp.gov) is a U.S. federal government interagency initiative through the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology that was created to speed the improvement of space weather services for the nation. The Committee for Space Weather (CSW) under the NSWP has continued to advance the program on a number of fronts over the past 12 months.

Hierarchical feature selection for erythema severity estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Li; Shi, Chenbo; Shu, Chang

2014-10-01

At present PASI system of scoring is used for evaluating erythema severity, which can help doctors to diagnose psoriasis [1-3]. The system relies on the subjective judge of doctors, where the accuracy and stability cannot be guaranteed [4]. This paper proposes a stable and precise algorithm for erythema severity estimation. Our contributions are twofold. On one hand, in order to extract the multi-scale redness of erythema, we design the hierarchical feature. Different from traditional methods, we not only utilize the color statistical features, but also divide the detect window into small window and extract hierarchical features. Further, a feature re-ranking step is introduced, which can guarantee that extracted features are irrelevant to each other. On the other hand, an adaptive boosting classifier is applied for further feature selection. During the step of training, the classifier will seek out the most valuable feature for evaluating erythema severity, due to its strong learning ability. Experimental results demonstrate the high precision and robustness of our algorithm. The accuracy is 80.1% on the dataset which comprise 116 patients' images with various kinds of erythema. Now our system has been applied for erythema medical efficacy evaluation in Union Hosp, China.

Predicting motorcycle crash injury severity using weather data and alternative Bayesian multivariate crash frequency models.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Wen; Gill, Gurdiljot Singh; Sakrani, Taha; Dasu, Mohan; Zhou, Jiao

2017-11-01

Motorcycle crashes constitute a very high proportion of the overall motor vehicle fatalities in the United States, and many studies have examined the influential factors under various conditions. However, research on the impact of weather conditions on the motorcycle crash severity is not well documented. In this study, we examined the impact of weather conditions on motorcycle crash injuries at four different severity levels using San Francisco motorcycle crash injury data. Five models were developed using Full Bayesian formulation accounting for different correlations commonly seen in crash data and then compared for fitness and performance. Results indicate that the models with serial and severity variations of parameters had superior fit, and the capability of accurate crash prediction. The inferences from the parameter estimates from the five models were: an increase in the air temperature reduced the possibility of a fatal crash but had a reverse impact on crashes of other severity levels; humidity in air was not observed to have a predictable or strong impact on crashes; the occurrence of rainfall decreased the possibility of crashes for all severity levels. Transportation agencies might benefit from the research results to improve road safety by providing motorcyclists with information regarding the risk of certain crash severity levels for special weather conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applications of Earth Remote Sensing for Identifying Tornado and Severe Weather Damage

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Lori; Molthan, Andrew; Burks, Jason E.; Bell, Jordan; McGrath, Kevin; Cole, Tony

2016-01-01

NASA SPoRT (Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center) provided MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) imagery to WFOs (Weather Forecast Offices) in Alabama to support April 27th, 2011 damage assessments across the state. SPoRT was awarded a NASA Applied Science: Disasters Feasibility award to investigate the applicability of including remote sensing imagery and derived products into the NOAA/NWS (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather System) Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT). Proposal team was awarded the 3-year proposal to implement a web mapping service and associate data feeds from the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) to provide satellite imagery and derived products directly to the NWS thru the DAT. In the United States, NOAA/NWS is charged with performing damage assessments when storm or tornado damage is suspected after a severe weather event. This has led to the development of the Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT), an application for smartphones, tablets and web browsers that allows for the collection, geo-location, and aggregation of various damage indicators collected during storm surveys.

Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Theofilatos, Athanasios

2017-06-01

The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

The Airway Microbiome in Severe Asthma: Associations with Disease Features and Severity

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yvonne J.; Nariya, Snehal; Harris, Jeffrey M.; Lynch, Susan V.; Choy, David F.; Arron, Joseph R.; Boushey, Homer

2015-01-01

Background Asthma is heterogeneous, and airway dysbiosis is associated with clinical features in mild-moderate asthma. Whether similar relationships exist among patients with severe asthma is unknown. Objective To evaluate relationships between the bronchial microbiome and features of severe asthma. Methods Bronchial brushings from 40 participants in the BOBCAT study (Bronchoscopic Exploratory Research Study of Biomarkers in Corticosteroid-refractory Asthma) were evaluated using 16S rRNA-based methods. Relationships to clinical and inflammatory features were analyzed among microbiome-profiled subjects. Secondarily, bacterial compositional profiles were compared between severe asthmatics, and previously studied healthy controls (n=7), and mild-moderate asthma subjects (n=41). Results In severe asthma, bronchial bacterial composition was associated with several disease-related features, including body-mass index (BMI; Bray-Curtis distance PERMANOVA, p < 0.05), changes in Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) scores (p < 0.01), sputum total leukocytes (p = 0.06) and bronchial biopsy eosinophils (per mm2; p = 0.07). Bacterial communities associated with worsening ACQ and sputum total leukocytes (predominantly Proteobacteria) differed markedly from those associated with BMI (Bacteroidetes/Firmicutes). In contrast, improving/stable ACQ and bronchial epithelial gene expression of FKBP5, an indicator of steroid responsiveness, correlated with Actinobacteria. Mostly negative correlations were observed between biopsy eosinophils and Proteobacteria. No taxa were associated with a T-helper type 2-related epithelial gene expression signature, but expression of Th17-related genes was associated with Proteobacteria. Severe asthma subjects, compared to healthy controls or mild-moderate asthmatics, were significantly enriched in Actinobacteria, although the largest differences observed involved a Klebsiella genus member (7.8 fold-increase in severe asthma, padj < 0.001) Conclusions

Mapping fire probability and severity in a Mediterranean area using different weather and fuel moisture scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Arca, B.; Salis, M.; Bacciu, V.; Duce, P.; Pellizzaro, G.; Ventura, A.; Spano, D.

2009-04-01

Although in many countries lightning is the main cause of ignition, in the Mediterranean Basin the forest fires are predominantly ignited by arson, or by human negligence. The fire season peaks coincide with extreme weather conditions (mainly strong winds, hot temperatures, low atmospheric water vapour content) and high tourist presence. Many works reported that in the Mediterranean Basin the projected impacts of climate change will cause greater weather variability and extreme weather conditions, with drier and hotter summers and heat waves. At long-term scale, climate changes could affect the fuel load and the dead/live fuel ratio, and therefore could change the vegetation flammability. At short-time scale, the increase of extreme weather events could directly affect fuel water status, and it could increase large fire occurrence. In this context, detecting the areas characterized by both high probability of large fire occurrence and high fire severity could represent an important component of the fire management planning. In this work we compared several fire probability and severity maps (fire occurrence, rate of spread, fireline intensity, flame length) obtained for a study area located in North Sardinia, Italy, using FlamMap simulator (USDA Forest Service, Missoula). FlamMap computes the potential fire behaviour characteristics over a defined landscape for given weather, wind and fuel moisture data. Different weather and fuel moisture scenarios were tested to predict the potential impact of climate changes on fire parameters. The study area, characterized by a mosaic of urban areas, protected areas, and other areas subject to anthropogenic disturbances, is mainly composed by fire-prone Mediterranean maquis. The input themes needed to run FlamMap were input as grid of 10 meters; the wind data, obtained using a computational fluid-dynamic model, were inserted as gridded file, with a resolution of 50 m. The analysis revealed high fire probability and severity in

Bioremediation of severely weathered hydrocarbons: is it possible?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallego, J. R.; Villa, R.; Sierra, C.; Sotres, A.; Pelaez, A. I.; Sanchez, J.

2009-01-01

Weathering processes of spilled hydrocarbons promote a reduced biodegradability of petroleum compounds mixtures, and consequently bioremediation techniques are often ruled out within the selection of suitable remediation approaches. This is truly relevant wherever old spills at abandoned industrial sites have to be remediated. However it is well known most of the remaining fractions and individual compounds of weathered oil are still biodegradable, although at slow rates than alkanes or no and two-ring aromatics. (Author)

Forecasting challenges during the severe weather outbreak in Central Europe on 25 June 2008

Science.gov (United States)

Púčik, Tomáš; Francová, Martina; Rýva, David; Kolář, Miroslav; Ronge, Lukáš

2011-06-01

On 25 June 2008, severe thunderstorms caused widespread damage and two fatalities in the Czech Republic. Significant features of the storms included numerous downbursts on a squall line that exhibited a bow echo reflectivity pattern, with sustained wind gusts over 32 m/s at several reporting stations. Moreover, a tornado and several downbursts of F2 intensity occurred within the convective system, collocated with the development of mesovortices within the larger scale bow echo. The extent of the event was sufficient to call it a derecho, as the windstorm had affected Eastern Germany, Southern Poland, Slovakia, Austria and Northern Hungary as well. Ahead of the squall line, several well-organized isolated cells occurred, exhibiting supercellular characteristics, both from a radar and visual perspective. These storms produced large hail and also isolated severe wind gusts. This paper deals mostly with the forecasting challenges that were experienced by the meteorologist on duty during the evolution of this convective scenario. The main challenge of the day was to identify the region that would be most affected by severe convection, especially as the numerical weather prediction failed to anticipate the extent and the progress of the derecho-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Convective storms developed in an environment conducive to severe thunderstorms, with strong wind shear confined mostly to the lower half of the troposphere. These developments also were strongly influenced by mesoscale factors, especially a mesolow centered over Austria and its trough stretching to Eastern Bohemia. The paper demonstrates how careful mesoscale analysis could prove useful in dealing with such convective situations. Remote-sensing methods are also shown to be useful in such situations, especially when they can offer sufficient lead time to issue a warning, which is not always the case.

Preliminary Development and Evaluation of Lightning Jump Algorithms for the Real-Time Detection of Severe Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Petersen, Walter A.; Carey, Lawrence D.

2009-01-01

Previous studies have demonstrated that rapid increases in total lightning activity (intracloud + cloud-to-ground) are often observed tens of minutes in advance of the occurrence of severe weather at the ground. These rapid increases in lightning activity have been termed "lightning jumps." Herein, we document a positive correlation between lightning jumps and the manifestation of severe weather in thunderstorms occurring across the Tennessee Valley and Washington D.C. A total of 107 thunderstorms were examined in this study, with 69 of the 107 thunderstorms falling into the category of non-severe, and 38 into the category of severe. From the dataset of 69 isolated non-severe thunderstorms, an average peak 1 minute flash rate of 10 flashes/min was determined. A variety of severe thunderstorm types were examined for this study including an MCS, MCV, tornadic outer rainbands of tropical remnants, supercells, and pulse severe thunderstorms. Of the 107 thunderstorms, 85 thunderstorms (47 non-severe, 38 severe) from the Tennessee Valley and Washington D.C tested 6 lightning jump algorithm configurations (Gatlin, Gatlin 45, 2(sigma), 3(sigma), Threshold 10, and Threshold 8). Performance metrics for each algorithm were then calculated, yielding encouraging results from the limited sample of 85 thunderstorms. The 2(sigma) lightning jump algorithm had a high probability of detection (POD; 87%), a modest false alarm rate (FAR; 33%), and a solid Heidke Skill Score (HSS; 0.75). A second and more simplistic lightning jump algorithm named the Threshold 8 lightning jump algorithm also shows promise, with a POD of 81% and a FAR of 41%. Average lead times to severe weather occurrence for these two algorithms were 23 minutes and 20 minutes, respectively. The overall goal of this study is to advance the development of an operationally-applicable jump algorithm that can be used with either total lightning observations made from the ground, or in the near future from space using the

Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event.

Science.gov (United States)

Lydersen, Jamie M; Collins, Brandon M; Brooks, Matthew L; Matchett, John R; Shive, Kristen L; Povak, Nicholas A; Kane, Van R; Smith, Douglas F

2017-10-01

Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western United States. Given this increase, there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels treatments (including wildfire), fire weather, vegetation, and water balance on fire-severity in the Rim Fire of 2013. We did this at three different spatial scales to investigate whether the influences on fire severity changed across scales. Both fuels treatments and previous low to moderate-severity wildfire reduced the prevalence of high-severity fire. In general, areas without recent fuels treatments and areas that previously burned at high severity tended to have a greater proportion of high-severity fire in the Rim Fire. Areas treated with prescribed fire, especially when combined with thinning, had the lowest proportions of high severity. The proportion of the landscape burned at high severity was most strongly influenced by fire weather and proportional area previously treated for fuels or burned by low to moderate severity wildfire. The proportion treated needed to effectively reduce the amount of high severity fire varied by spatial scale of analysis, with smaller spatial scales requiring a greater proportion treated to see an effect on fire severity. When moderate and high-severity fire encountered a previously treated area, fire severity was significantly reduced in the treated area relative to the adjacent untreated area. Our results show that fuels treatments and low to moderate-severity wildfire can reduce fire severity in a subsequent wildfire, even when burning under fire growth conditions. These results serve as further evidence that both fuels treatments and lower severity wildfire can increase forest resilience. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

The airway microbiome in patients with severe asthma: Associations with disease features and severity.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yvonne J; Nariya, Snehal; Harris, Jeffrey M; Lynch, Susan V; Choy, David F; Arron, Joseph R; Boushey, Homer

2015-10-01

Asthma is heterogeneous, and airway dysbiosis is associated with clinical features in patients with mild-to-moderate asthma. Whether similar relationships exist among patients with severe asthma is unknown. We sought to evaluate relationships between the bronchial microbiome and features of severe asthma. Bronchial brushings from 40 participants in the Bronchoscopic Exploratory Research Study of Biomarkers in Corticosteroid-refractory Asthma (BOBCAT) study were evaluated by using 16S ribosomal RNA-based methods. Relationships to clinical and inflammatory features were analyzed among microbiome-profiled subjects. Secondarily, bacterial compositional profiles were compared between patients with severe asthma and previously studied healthy control subjects (n = 7) and patients with mild-to-moderate asthma (n = 41). In patients with severe asthma, bronchial bacterial composition was associated with several disease-related features, including body mass index (P PERMANOVA), changes in Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) scores (P < .01), sputum total leukocyte values (P = .06), and bronchial biopsy eosinophil values (per square millimeter, P = .07). Bacterial communities associated with worsening ACQ scores and sputum total leukocyte values (predominantly Proteobacteria) differed markedly from those associated with body mass index (Bacteroidetes/Firmicutes). In contrast, improving/stable ACQ scores and bronchial epithelial gene expression of FK506 binding protein (FKBP5), an indicator of steroid responsiveness, correlated with Actinobacteria. Mostly negative correlations were observed between biopsy eosinophil values and Proteobacteria. No taxa were associated with a TH2-related epithelial gene expression signature, but expression of TH17-related genes was associated with Proteobacteria. Patients with severe asthma compared with healthy control subjects or patients with mild-to-moderate asthma were significantly enriched in Actinobacteria, although the largest differences

Numerical Modeling of the Severe Cold Weather Event over Central Europe (January 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Hari Prasad

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Cold waves commonly occur in higher latitudes under prevailing high pressure systems especially during winter season which cause serious economical loss and cold related death. Accurate prediction of such severe weather events is important for decision making by administrators and for mitigation planning. An Advanced high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe cold wave event occurred during January 2006 over Europe. The model is integrated for 31 days starting from 00UTC of 1 January 2006 with 30 km horizontal resolution. Comparison of the model derived area averaged daily mean temperatures at 2m height from different zones over the central Europe with observations indicates that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the cold wave with the observed time lag of 1 to 3days but with lesser intensity. The temperature, winds, surface pressure and the geopential heights at 500 hPa reveal that the cold wave development associates with the southward progression of a high pressure system and cold air advection. The results have good agreement with the analysis fields indicates that the model has the ability to reproduce the time evolution of the cold wave event.

Modeling crash injury severity by road feature to improve safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Penmetsa, Praveena; Pulugurtha, Srinivas S

2018-01-02

The objective of this research is 2-fold: to (a) model and identify critical road features (or locations) based on crash injury severity and compare it with crash frequency and (b) model and identify drivers who are more likely to contribute to crashes by road feature. Crash data from 2011 to 2013 were obtained from the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) for the state of North Carolina. Twenty-three different road features were considered, analyzed, and compared with each other as well as no road feature. A multinomial logit (MNL) model was developed and odds ratios were estimated to investigate the effect of road features on crash injury severity. Among the many road features, underpass, end or beginning of a divided highway, and on-ramp terminal on crossroad are the top 3 critical road features. Intersection crashes are frequent but are not highly likely to result in severe injuries compared to critical road features. Roundabouts are least likely to result in both severe and moderate injuries. Female drivers are more likely to be involved in crashes at intersections (4-way and T) compared to male drivers. Adult drivers are more likely to be involved in crashes at underpasses. Older drivers are 1.6 times more likely to be involved in a crash at the end or beginning of a divided highway. The findings from this research help to identify critical road features that need to be given priority. As an example, additional advanced warning signs and providing enlarged or highly retroreflective signs that grab the attention of older drivers may help in making locations such as end or beginning of a divided highway much safer. Educating drivers about the necessary skill sets required at critical road features in addition to engineering solutions may further help them adopt safe driving behaviors on the road.

Active Discriminative Dictionary Learning for Weather Recognition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caixia Zheng

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Weather recognition based on outdoor images is a brand-new and challenging subject, which is widely required in many fields. This paper presents a novel framework for recognizing different weather conditions. Compared with other algorithms, the proposed method possesses the following advantages. Firstly, our method extracts both visual appearance features of the sky region and physical characteristics features of the nonsky region in images. Thus, the extracted features are more comprehensive than some of the existing methods in which only the features of sky region are considered. Secondly, unlike other methods which used the traditional classifiers (e.g., SVM and K-NN, we use discriminative dictionary learning as the classification model for weather, which could address the limitations of previous works. Moreover, the active learning procedure is introduced into dictionary learning to avoid requiring a large number of labeled samples to train the classification model for achieving good performance of weather recognition. Experiments and comparisons are performed on two datasets to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Lightning Sensors for Observing, Tracking and Nowcasting Severe Weather

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colin Price

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Severe and extreme weather is a major natural hazard all over the world, oftenresulting in major natural disasters such as hail storms, tornados, wind storms, flash floods,forest fires and lightning damages. While precipitation, wind, hail, tornados, turbulence,etc. can only be observed at close distances, lightning activity in these damaging stormscan be monitored at all spatial scales, from local (using very high frequency [VHF]sensors, to regional (using very low frequency [VLF] sensors, and even global scales(using extremely low frequency [ELF] sensors. Using sensors that detect the radio wavesemitted by each lightning discharge, it is now possible to observe and track continuouslydistant thunderstorms using ground networks of sensors. In addition to the number oflightning discharges, these sensors can also provide information on lightningcharacteristics such as the ratio between intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning, thepolarity of the lightning discharge, peak currents, charge removal, etc. It has been shownthat changes in some of these lightning characteristics during thunderstorms are oftenrelated to changes in the severity of the storms. In this paper different lightning observingsystems are described, and a few examples are provided showing how lightning may beused to monitor storm hazards around the globe, while also providing the possibility ofsupplying short term forecasts, called nowcasting.

Wacky Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

2013-01-01

What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

Тhe features of severe community acquired pneumonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Avramenko I.V.

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Based on data from a prospective analysis for the year of observation, the article presents information about the features of severe community acquired pneumonia in patients who were hospitalized at the department of pulmonology (or therapy, as well as department of the intensive care from three teaching hospitals in Dnepropetrovsk, namely "Dnipropetrovsk City Hospital №6», "Dnipropetrovsk City Hospital №2», "Dnipropetrovsk City Hospital №16», which are the clinical ones of "Dnepropetrovsk Medical Academy of the Ministry of Health Ukraine". Dependence of the severity of the condition shown on duration of illness before admission, features of season character of disease. The effect of breathing exercises on the course of the disease. The results can be the basis for a more personal approach to the development of diagnostic and therapeutic programs for patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia.

Winter Weather Emergencies

Science.gov (United States)

Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

Solar weather monitoring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.-F. Hochedez

2005-11-01

Full Text Available Space Weather nowcasting and forecasting require solar observations because geoeffective disturbances can arise from three types of solar phenomena: coronal mass ejections (CMEs, flares and coronal holes. For each, we discuss their definition and review their precursors in terms of remote sensing and in-situ observations. The objectives of Space Weather require some specific instrumental features, which we list using the experience gained from the daily operations of the Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Nowcasting requires real-time monitoring to assess quickly and reliably the severity of any potentially geoeffective solar event. Both research and forecasting could incorporate more observations in order to feed case studies and data assimilation respectively. Numerical models will result in better predictions of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP events. We review the data types available to monitor solar activity and interplanetary conditions. They come from space missions and ground observatories and range from sequences of dopplergrams, magnetograms, white-light, chromospheric, coronal, coronagraphic and radio images, to irradiance and in-situ time-series. Their role is summarized together with indications about current and future solar monitoring instruments.

Mining key elements for severe convection prediction based on CNN

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Ming; Pan, Ning; Zhang, Changan; Sha, Hongzhou; Zhang, Bolei; Liu, Liang; Zhang, Meng

2017-04-01

Severe convective weather is a kind of weather disasters accompanied by heavy rainfall, gust wind, hail, etc. Along with recent developments on remote sensing and numerical modeling, there are high-volume and long-term observational and modeling data accumulated to capture massive severe convective events over particular areas and time periods. With those high-volume and high-variety weather data, most of the existing studies and methods carry out the dynamical laws, cause analysis, potential rule study, and prediction enhancement by utilizing the governing equations from fluid dynamics and thermodynamics. In this study, a key-element mining method is proposed for severe convection prediction based on convolution neural network (CNN). It aims to identify the key areas and key elements from huge amounts of historical weather data including conventional measurements, weather radar, satellite, so as numerical modeling and/or reanalysis data. Under this manner, the machine-learning based method could help the human forecasters on their decision-making on operational weather forecasts on severe convective weathers by extracting key information from the real-time and historical weather big data. In this paper, it first utilizes computer vision technology to complete the data preprocessing work of the meteorological variables. Then, it utilizes the information such as radar map and expert knowledge to annotate all images automatically. And finally, by using CNN model, it cloud analyze and evaluate each weather elements (e.g., particular variables, patterns, features, etc.), and identify key areas of those critical weather elements, then help forecasters quickly screen out the key elements from huge amounts of observation data by current weather conditions. Based on the rich weather measurement and model data (up to 10 years) over Fujian province in China, where the severe convective weathers are very active during the summer months, experimental tests are conducted with

Observations of ionospheric electric fields above atmospheric weather systems

Science.gov (United States)

Farrell, W. M.; Aggson, T. L.; Rodgers, E. B.; Hanson, W. B.

1994-01-01

We report on the observations of a number of quasi-dc electric field events associated with large-scale atmospheric weather formations. The observations were made by the electric field experiment onboard the San Marco D satellite, operational in an equatorial orbit from May to December 1988. Several theoretical studies suggest that electric fields generated by thunderstorms are present at high altitudes in the ionosphere. In spite of such favorable predictions, weather-related events are not often observed since they are relatively weak. We shall report here on a set of likely E field candidates for atmospheric-ionospheric causality, these being observed over the Indonesian Basin, northern South America, and the west coast of Africa; all known sites of atmospheric activity. As we shall demonstrate, individual events often be traced to specific active weather features. For example, a number of events were associated with spacecraft passages near Hurricane Joan in mid-October 1988. As a statistical set, the events appear to coincide with the most active regions of atmospheric weather.

Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

2016-01-01

The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

How severe space weather can disrupt global supply chains

Science.gov (United States)

Schulte in den Bäumen, H.; Moran, D.; Lenzen, M.; Cairns, I.; Steenge, A.

2014-10-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are frequent events that could soon have substantial impacts on electrical grids. Modern society's heavy reliance on these domestic and international networks increases our susceptibility to such a severe space-weather event. Using a new high-resolution model of the global economy, we simulate the economic impact of strong CMEs for three different planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts within the countries directly affected, as well as the post-disaster economic shock in partner economies linked by international trade. For a 1989 Quebec-like event, the global economic impacts would range from USD 2.4 to 3.4 trillion over a year. Of this total economic shock, about 50% would be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading to a loss in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.9 to 5.6%. The global economic damage is of the same order as wars, extreme financial crisis and estimated for future climate change.

Socio-Economic Impacts of Space Weather and User Needs for Space Weather Information

Science.gov (United States)

Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.

2017-12-01

The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) details the activities, outcomes, and timelines to build a "Space Weather Ready Nation." NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and Abt Associates are working together on two SWAP initiatives: (1) identifying, describing, and quantifying the socio-economic impacts of moderate and severe space weather; and (2) outreach to engineers and operators to better understand user requirements for space weather products and services. Both studies cover four technological sectors (electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and GNSS users) and rely heavily on industry input. Findings from both studies are essential for decreasing vulnerabilities and enhancing preparedness.

Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

2017-12-01

A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

Ionospheric effects during severe space weather events seen in ionospheric service data products

Science.gov (United States)

Jakowski, Norbert; Danielides, Michael; Mayer, Christoph; Borries, Claudia

Space weather effects are closely related to complex perturbation processes in the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere systems, initiated by enhanced solar energy input. To understand and model complex space weather processes, different views on the same subject are helpful. One of the ionosphere key parameters is the Total Electron Content (TEC) which provides a first or-der approximation of the ionospheric range error in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) applications. Additionally, horizontal gradients and time rate of change of TEC are important for estimating the perturbation degree of the ionosphere. TEC maps can effectively be gener-ated using ground based GNSS measurements from global receiver networks. Whereas ground based GNSS measurements provide good horizontal resolution, space based radio occultation measurements can complete the view by providing information on the vertical plasma density distribution. The combination of ground based TEC and vertical sounding measurements pro-vide essential information on the shape of the vertical electron density profile by computing the equivalent slab thickness at the ionosonde station site. Since radio beacon measurements at 150/400 MHz are well suited to trace the horizontal structure of Travelling Ionospheric Dis-turbances (TIDs), these data products essentially complete GNSS based TEC mapping results. Radio scintillation data products, characterising small scale irregularities in the ionosphere, are useful to estimate the continuity and availability of transionospheric radio signals. The different data products are addressed while discussing severe space weather events in the ionosphere e.g. events in October/November 2003. The complementary view of different near real time service data products is helpful to better understand the complex dynamics of ionospheric perturbation processes and to forecast the development of parameters customers are interested in.

NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

Science.gov (United States)

Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard;

EPR design features to mitigate severe accident challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazurkiewicz, S.M.; Fischer, M.; Bittermann, D.

2005-01-01

The EPR, an evolutionary pressurized water reactor (PWR), is a 4300-4500 MWth that incorporates proven technology within an optimized configuration to enhance safety. EPR was originally developed through a joint effort between Framatome ANP and Siemens by incorporating the best technological features from the French and German nuclear reactor fleets into a cost-competitive product. Commercial EPR units are currently being built in Finland at the Olkiluoto site, and planned for France at the Flamanville site. In recent months, Framatome ANP announced their intention to market the EPR units to China in response to a request for vendor bids as well as their intent to pursue design certification in the United States under 10CFR52. The EPR safety philosophy is based on a deterministic consideration of defense-in-depth complemented by probabilistic analyses. Not only is the EPR designed to prevent and mitigate design basis accidents (DBAs), it employs an extra level of safety associated with severe accident response. Therefore, as a design objective, features are included to ensure that radiological consequences are limited such that the need for stringent counter measures, such as evacuation and relocation of the nearby population, can be reasonably excluded. This paper discusses some of the innovative features of the EPR to address severe accident challenges. (author)

NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

... Weather Awareness Floods, Wind Chill, Tornadoes, Heat... Education Weather Terms, Teachers, Statistics government web resources and services. Natural Hazard Statistics Statistics U.S. Summaries 78-Year List of Severe Weather Fatalities Preliminary Hazardous Weather Statistics for 2017 Now

Impacts of Severe Weather, Climate Zone, and Energy Factors on Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC)

Science.gov (United States)

2015-03-26

Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Engineering Management Christopher L. Teke, Major, USAF Major...the science behind severe weather occurrences and climate zone. Chapter 3 further details the methodology used in the analysis and sets the stage... actuarial estimates and should be thought of as insurance premiums, and ought to remain a budgeted cost if a base stays open. In contrast, if a base is

Weather Information Processing

Science.gov (United States)

1991-01-01

Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

Spatial extreme value analysis to project extremes of large-scale indicators for severe weather.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilleland, Eric; Brown, Barbara G; Ammann, Caspar M

2013-09-01

Concurrently high values of the maximum potential wind speed of updrafts ( W max ) and 0-6 km wind shear (Shear) have been found to represent conducive environments for severe weather, which subsequently provides a way to study severe weather in future climates. Here, we employ a model for the product of these variables (WmSh) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research/United States National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis over North America conditioned on their having extreme energy in the spatial field in order to project the predominant spatial patterns of WmSh. The approach is based on the Heffernan and Tawn conditional extreme value model. Results suggest that this technique estimates the spatial behavior of WmSh well, which allows for exploring possible changes in the patterns over time. While the model enables a method for inferring the uncertainty in the patterns, such analysis is difficult with the currently available inference approach. A variation of the method is also explored to investigate how this type of model might be used to qualitatively understand how the spatial patterns of WmSh correspond to extreme river flow events. A case study for river flows from three rivers in northwestern Tennessee is studied, and it is found that advection of WmSh from the Gulf of Mexico prevails while elsewhere, WmSh is generally very low during such extreme events. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics published by JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd.

Impacts from urban water systems on receiving waters - How to account for severe wet-weather events in LCA?

Science.gov (United States)

Risch, Eva; Gasperi, Johnny; Gromaire, Marie-Christine; Chebbo, Ghassan; Azimi, Sam; Rocher, Vincent; Roux, Philippe; Rosenbaum, Ralph K; Sinfort, Carole

2018-01-01

Sewage systems are a vital part of the urban infrastructure in most cities. They provide drainage, which protects public health, prevents the flooding of property and protects the water environment around urban areas. On some occasions sewers will overflow into the water environment during heavy rain potentially causing unacceptable impacts from releases of untreated sewage into the environment. In typical Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies of urban wastewater systems (UWS), average dry-weather conditions are modelled while wet-weather flows from UWS, presenting a high temporal variability, are not currently accounted for. In this context, the loads from several storm events could be important contributors to the impact categories freshwater eutrophication and ecotoxicity. In this study we investigated the contributions of these wet-weather-induced discharges relative to average dry-weather conditions in the life cycle inventory for UWS. In collaboration with the Paris public sanitation service (SIAAP) and Observatory of Urban Pollutants (OPUR) program researchers, this work aimed at identifying and comparing contributing flows from the UWS in the Paris area by a selection of routine wastewater parameters and priority pollutants. This collected data is organized according to archetypal weather days during a reference year. Then, for each archetypal weather day and its associated flows to the receiving river waters (Seine), the parameters of pollutant loads (statistical distribution of concentrations and volumes) were determined. The resulting inventory flows (i.e. the potential loads from the UWS) were used as LCA input data to assess the associated impacts. This allowed investigating the relative importance of episodic wet-weather versus "continuous" dry-weather loads with a probabilistic approach to account for pollutant variability within the urban flows. The analysis at the scale of one year showed that storm events are significant contributors to the impacts

International Severe Weather and Flash Flood Hazard Early Warning Systems—Leveraging Coordination, Cooperation, and Partnerships through a Hydrometeorological Project in Southern Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Jubach

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Climate, weather and water hazards do not recognize national boundaries. Transboundary/regional programs and cooperation are essential to reduce the loss of lives and damage to livelihoods when facing these hazards. The development and implementation of systems to provide early warnings for severe weather events such as cyclones and flash floods requires data and information sharing in real time, and coordination among the government agencies at all levels. Within a country, this includes local, municipal, provincial-to-national levels as well as regional and international entities involved in hydrometeorological services and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR. Of key importance are the National Meteorological and Hydrologic Services (NMHSs. The NMHS is generally the authority solely responsible for issuing warnings for these hazards. However, in many regions of the world, the linkages and interfaces between the NMHS and other agencies are weak or non-existent. Therefore, there is a critical need to assess, strengthen, and formalize collaborations when addressing the concept of reducing risk and impacts from severe weather and floods. The U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance; the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO; the WMO Southern Africa Regional Specialized Meteorological Center, hosted by the South African Weather Service; the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service and the Hydrologic Research Center (a non-profit corporation are currently implementing a project working with Southern Africa NMHSs on addressing this gap. The project aims to strengthen coordination and collaboration mechanisms from national to local levels. The project partners are working with the NMHSs to apply and implement appropriate tools and infrastructure to enhance currently operational severe weather and flash flood early warning systems in each country in support of

A Preliminary Assessment of Daily Weather Conditions in Nuclear Site for Development of Effective Emergency Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Seok Jung; Ahn, Kwang Il

2012-01-01

A radiological emergency preparedness for nuclear sites is recognized as an important measure against anticipated severe accidents with environmental releases of radioactive materials. While there are many individual means in the emergency preparedness for nuclear accidents, one of most important means is to make a decision of evacuation or shelter of the public residents with the emergency plan zone (EPZ) of a nuclear site. In order to prepare an effective strategy for the evacuation as a basis of the emergency preparedness, it may need the understanding of atmospheric dispersion characteristics of radiation releases to the environment, mainly depending upon the weather conditions of a radiation releases location, i.e., a nuclear site. As a preliminary study for the development of an effective emergency plan, the basic features of the weather conditions of a specific site were investigated. A main interest of this study is to identify whether or not the site weather conditions have specific features helpful for a decision making of evacuation of the public residents

Several required OWL features for indigenous knowledge management systems

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Alberts, R

2012-05-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the features required of OWL (Web Ontology Language) to realise and enhance Indigenous Knowledge (IK) digital repositories. Several needs for Indigenous Knowledge management systems (IKMSs) are articulated, based on extensive...

Space weather and coronal mass ejections

CERN Document Server

Howard, Tim

2013-01-01

Space weather has attracted a lot of attention in recent times. Severe space weather can disrupt spacecraft, and on Earth can be the cause of power outages and power station failure. It also presents a radiation hazard for airline passengers and astronauts. These ""magnetic storms"" are most commonly caused by coronal mass ejections, or CMES, which are large eruptions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun that can reach speeds of several thousand km/s. In this SpringerBrief, Space Weather and Coronal Mass Ejections, author Timothy Howard briefly introduces the coronal mass ejection, its sc

Space Weather Services of Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

2016-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

The relevance and legibility of radio/TV weather reports to the Austrian public

Science.gov (United States)

Keul, A. G.; Holzer, A. M.

2013-03-01

The communicative quality of media weather reports, especially warnings, can be evaluated by user research. It is an interdisciplinary field, still uncoordinated after 35 years. The authors suggest to shift from a cognitive learning model to news processing, qualitative discourse and usability models as the media audience is in an edutainment situation where it acts highly selective. A series of field surveys 2008-2011 tested the relevance and legibility of Austrian radio and television weather reports on fair weather and in warning situations. 247 laypeople heard/saw original, mostly up-to-date radio/TV weather reports and recalled personally relevant data. Also, a questionnaire on weather knowledge was answered by 237 Austrians. Several research hypotheses were tested. The main results were (a) a relatively high level of meteorological knowledge of the general population, with interest and participation of German-speaking migrants, (b) a pluralistic media usage with TV, radio and internet as the leading media, (c) higher interest and attention (also for local weather) after warnings, but a risk of more false recalls after long warnings, (d) more recall problems with radio messages and a wish that the weather elements should always appear in the same order to faciliate processing for the audience. In their narrow time windows, radio/TV weather reports should concentrate on main features (synoptic situation, tomorrow's temperature and precipitation, possible warnings), keep a verbal “speed limit” and restrict show elements to serve the active, selective, multioptional, multicultural audience.

NextGen Weather Plan, Version 1.1

Science.gov (United States)

2009-09-17

to-point transport of the weather products. Some data such as the Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) are also available via access to special web ...Aeronautics and Space Administration NCV National Ceiling & Visibility NDFD National Digital Forecast Database NEO Net Enabled Operations NEVS Network...World Area Forecast Center WAFS World Area Forecast System WBS Work Breakdown Structure WCS Web Coverage Service WFS Web Feature Service Wx Weather

Efficient Ways to Learn Weather Radar Polarimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Qing; Yeary, M. B.; Zhang, Guifu

2012-01-01

The U.S. weather radar network is currently being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Weather radar polarimetry is an interdisciplinary area of engineering and meteorology. This paper presents efficient ways to learn weather radar polarimetry through several basic and practical topics. These topics include: 1) hydrometeor scattering model…

The impact of weather variation on energy consumption in residential houses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fikru, Mahelet G.; Gautier, Luis

2015-01-01

Highlights: • There is evidence for significant intraday variation of energy use. • The sensitivity of energy use to weather variation falls via efficiency features. • The sensitivity of energy use to weather depends on the specific time of day/night. • High frequency data helps to accurately model the energy use-weather relationship. - Abstract: This paper studies the impact of weather variation on energy use by using 5-minutes interval weather–energy data obtained from two residential houses: house 1 is a conventional house with advanced efficiency features and house 2 is a net-zero solar house with relatively more advanced efficiency features. Our result suggests that energy consumption in house 2 is not as sensitive to changes in weather variables as the conventional house. On average, we find that a one unit increase in heating and cooling degree minutes increases energy use by about 9% and 5% respectively for house 1 and 5% and 4% respectively for house 2. In addition, our findings suggest that non-temperature variables such as solar radiation and humidity affect energy use where the sensitivity rates for house 2 are consistently lower than that of house 1. Furthermore our result suggests that the sensitivity of energy use to weather depends on the season and specific time of the day/night

Ultrastructural hepatocellular features associated with severe hepatic lipidosis in cats.

Science.gov (United States)

Center, S A; Guida, L; Zanelli, M J; Dougherty, E; Cummings, J; King, J

1993-05-01

In this study, we compared hepatic ultrastructure in healthy cats, in cats with severe hepatic lipidosis, and in cats with experimentally induced, chronic, extrahepatic bile duct occlusion. Ultrastructural features unique to the lipidosis syndrome included an apparent reduction in number of peroxisomes and alteration in their morphologic features. The quantity of endoplasmic reticulum, Golgi complexes, and lysosomes was subjectively reduced, and paucity of cytosolic glycogen was observed. Bile canaliculi appeared collapsed because of cytosolic distention with lipid. Mitochondria were reduced in number and were markedly pleomorphic. Cristae assumed a variety of shapes, lengths, and orientations. Ultrastructural features of bile duct occlusion were similar to those described in other species and differed from those in cats with hepatic lipidosis.

14 CFR 27.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 27.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each suction lift fuel system and other fuel systems with features conducive to... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 27.961...

Dynamic Weather Routes: A Weather Avoidance Concept for Trajectory-Based Operations

Science.gov (United States)

McNally, B. David; Love, John

2011-01-01

's integrated FMS/datalink. Auxiliary(lat/long) waypoints define a minimum delay reroute between current position and a downstream capture fix beyond the weather. These auxiliary waypoints can be uplinked to equipped aircraft and auto-loaded into the FMS. Alternatively, for unequipped aircraft, auxiliary waypoints can be replaced by nearby named fixes, but this could reduce potential savings. The presentation includes an overview of the automation approach and focuses on several cases in terms of potential savings, reroute complexity, best auxiliary waypoint solution vs. named fix solution, and other metrics.

Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Network Using Statistical Feature Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongshan Zhao

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Short-term solar irradiance forecasting (STSIF is of great significance for the optimal operation and power predication of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV plants. However, STSIF is very complex to handle due to the random and nonlinear characteristics of solar irradiance under changeable weather conditions. Artificial Neural Network (ANN is suitable for STSIF modeling and many research works on this topic are presented, but the conciseness and robustness of the existing models still need to be improved. After discussing the relation between weather variations and irradiance, the characteristics of the statistical feature parameters of irradiance under different weather conditions are figured out. A novel ANN model using statistical feature parameters (ANN-SFP for STSIF is proposed in this paper. The input vector is reconstructed with several statistical feature parameters of irradiance and ambient temperature. Thus sufficient information can be effectively extracted from relatively few inputs and the model complexity is reduced. The model structure is determined by cross-validation (CV, and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LMA is used for the network training. Simulations are carried out to validate and compare the proposed model with the conventional ANN model using historical data series (ANN-HDS, and the results indicated that the forecast accuracy is obviously improved under variable weather conditions.

Cockpit weather information needs

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, Charles H.

1992-01-01

The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along

Severe weather over the Highveld of South Africa during November ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2016-11-09

Nov 9, 2016 ... media was full of reports of water drives where ordinary people helped to collect water and distribute it to .... data such as radar, satellite images and synoptic maps. Photo evidence gathered from social ..... Natl Weather Dig. 28 13–24. DE CONING E (2014) Personal communication, 2 July 2014. Dr Estelle.

Phased Array Radar Network Experiment for Severe Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Ushio, T.; Kikuchi, H.; Mega, T.; Yoshikawa, E.; Mizutani, F.; Takahashi, N.

2017-12-01

Phased Array Weather Radar (PAWR) was firstly developed in 2012 by Osaka University and Toshiba under a grant of NICT using the Digital Beamforming Technique, and showed a impressive thunderstorm behavior with 30 second resolution. After that development, second PAWR was installed in Kobe city about 60 km away from the first PAWR site, and Tokyo Metropolitan University, Osaka Univeristy, Toshiba and the Osaka Local Government started a new project to develop the Osaka Urban Demonstration Network. The main sensor of the Osaka Network is a 2-node Phased Array Radar Network and lightning location system. Data products that are created both in local high performance computer and Toshiba Computer Cloud, include single and multi-radar data, vector wind, quantitative precipitation estimation, VIL, nowcasting, lightning location and analysis. Each radar node is calibarated by the baloon measurement and through the comparison with the GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement)/ DPR (Dual Frequency Space borne Radar) within 1 dB. The attenuated radar reflectivities obtained by the Phased Array Radar Network at X band are corrected based on the bayesian scheme proposed in Shimamura et al. [2016]. The obtained high resolution (every 30 seconds/ 100 elevation angles) 3D reflectivity and rain rate fields are used to nowcast the surface rain rate up to 30 minutes ahead. These new products are transferred to Osaka Local Government in operational mode and evaluated by several section in Osaka Prefecture. Furthermore, a new Phased Array Radar with polarimetric function has been developed in 2017, and will be operated in the fiscal year of 2017. In this presentation, Phased Array Radar, network architecuture, processing algorithm, evalution of the social experiment and first Multi-Prameter Phased Array Radar experiment are presented.

The employment of weather satellite imagery in an effort to identify and locate the forest-tundra ecotone in Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Aldrich, S. A.; Aldrich, F. T.; Rudd, R. D.

1969-01-01

Weather satellite imagery provides the only routinely available orbital imagery depicting the high latitudes. Although resolution is low on this imagery, it is believed that a major natural feature, notably linear in expression, should be mappable on it. The transition zone from forest to tundra, the ecotone, is such a feature. Locational correlation is herein established between a linear signature on the imagery and several ground truth positions of the ecotone in Canada.

Daily Weather Maps

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

Vulnerability and adaptation to severe weather events in the American southwest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riccardo Boero

2015-06-01

In conclusion, our findings suggest that determinants of economic growth support lower vulnerability to the weather and increase options for financing adaptation and recovery policies, but also that only some communities are likely to benefit from those processes.

Capability of LOFT vital batteries to supply emergency power demands during severe cold weather conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeates, J.A.

1978-01-01

This study evaluates the capability of the vital batteries (PPS) to provide electrical power via the vital DC-AC motor generator sets to the LOFT PPS loads during severe cold weather conditions. It is concluded that these batteries while at a temperature of 5 0 F will supply the necessary PPS electrical loads for a time in excess of the one hour permitted to start the diesel generators and are, therefore, adequate at this temperature. This Revision B of the LTR includes revised, more recent, and complete technical data relating to MG set efficiency, battery operating procedures and cold temperature derating. Revision B supersedes and replaces all previous issues

Weather patterns and hydro-climatological precursors of extreme floods in Switzerland since 1868

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stucki, Peter; Rickli, Ralph; Broennimann, Stefan; Martius, Olivia; Wanner, Heinz; Bern Univ.; Grebner, Dietmar; Luterbacher, Juerg

2012-01-01

The generation of 24 extreme floods in large catchments of the central Alps is analyzed from instrumental and documentary data, newly digitized observations of precipitation (DigiHom) and 20 th Century Reanalysis (20CR) data. Extreme floods are determined by the 95 th percentile of differences between an annual flood and a defined contemporary flood. For a selection of six events between 1868 and 1910, we describe preconditioning elements such as precipitation, temperature, and snow cover anomalies. Specific weather patterns are assessed through a subjective analysis of three-dimensional atmospheric circulation. A focus is placed on synoptic-scale features including mid-tropospheric ascent, low-level moisture transport, propagation of cyclones, and temperature anomalies. We propose a hydro-meteorological classification of all 24 investigated events according to flood-generating weather conditions. Key elements of the upper-level synoptic-scale flow are summarized by five types: (i) pivoting cut-off lows, (ii) elongated cut-off lows, (iii) elongated troughs, (iv) waves (with a kink), and (v) approximately zonal flow over the Alpine region. We found that the most extreme floods (as above, but ≥ 98 th percentile) in Switzerland since 1868 were caused by the interaction of severe hydro-climatologic conditions with a flood-inducing weather situation. The 20CR data provide plausible synoptic-scale meteorological patterns leading to heavy precipitation. The proposed catalogue of weather patterns and hydro-climatologic precursors can give direction when anticipating the possibility of severe floods in the Alpine region. (orig.)

A CNN-Based Fusion Method for Feature Extraction from Sentinel Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuseppe Scarpa

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Sensitivity to weather conditions, and specially to clouds, is a severe limiting factor to the use of optical remote sensing for Earth monitoring applications. A possible alternative is to benefit from weather-insensitive synthetic aperture radar (SAR images. In many real-world applications, critical decisions are made based on some informative optical or radar features related to items such as water, vegetation or soil. Under cloudy conditions, however, optical-based features are not available, and they are commonly reconstructed through linear interpolation between data available at temporally-close time instants. In this work, we propose to estimate missing optical features through data fusion and deep-learning. Several sources of information are taken into account—optical sequences, SAR sequences, digital elevation model—so as to exploit both temporal and cross-sensor dependencies. Based on these data and a tiny cloud-free fraction of the target image, a compact convolutional neural network (CNN is trained to perform the desired estimation. To validate the proposed approach, we focus on the estimation of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, using coupled Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 time-series acquired over an agricultural region of Burkina Faso from May–November 2016. Several fusion schemes are considered, causal and non-causal, single-sensor or joint-sensor, corresponding to different operating conditions. Experimental results are very promising, showing a significant gain over baseline methods according to all performance indicators.

Optimizing Placement of Weather Stations: Exploring Objective Functions of Meaningful Combinations of Multiple Weather Variables

Science.gov (United States)

Snyder, A.; Dietterich, T.; Selker, J. S.

2017-12-01

Many regions of the world lack ground-based weather data due to inadequate or unreliable weather station networks. For example, most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have unreliable, sparse networks of weather stations. The absence of these data can have consequences on weather forecasting, prediction of severe weather events, agricultural planning, and climate change monitoring. The Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO.org) project seeks to address these problems by deploying and operating a large network of weather stations throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. To design the TAHMO network, we must determine where to place weather stations within each country. We should consider how we can create accurate spatio-temporal maps of weather data and how to balance the desired accuracy of each weather variable of interest (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, etc.). We can express this problem as a joint optimization of multiple weather variables, given a fixed number of weather stations. We use reanalysis data as the best representation of the "true" weather patterns that occur in the region of interest. For each possible combination of sites, we interpolate the reanalysis data between selected locations and calculate the mean average error between the reanalysis ("true") data and the interpolated data. In order to formulate our multi-variate optimization problem, we explore different methods of weighting each weather variable in our objective function. These methods include systematic variation of weights to determine which weather variables have the strongest influence on the network design, as well as combinations targeted for specific purposes. For example, we can use computed evapotranspiration as a metric that combines many weather variables in a way that is meaningful for agricultural and hydrological applications. We compare the errors of the weather station networks produced by each optimization problem formulation. We also compare these

Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Shu-Chieh; Luna, Rocio; Johnson, Walter W.

2013-01-01

Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

AP1000{sup R} severe accident features and post-Fukushima considerations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scobel, J. H.; Schulz, T. L.; Williams, M. G. [Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC, 1000 Westinghouse Dr., Cranberry Township, PA 16066 (United States)

2012-07-01

The AP1000{sup R} passive nuclear power plant is uniquely equipped to withstand an extended station blackout scenario such as the events following the earthquake and tsunami at Fukushima without compromising core and containment integrity. The AP1000 plant shuts down the reactor, cools the core, containment and spent fuel pool for more than 3 days using passive systems that do not require AC or DC power or operator actions. Following this passive coping period, minimal operator actions are needed to extend the operation of the passive features to 7 days using installed equipment. To provide defense-in-depth for design extension conditions, the AP1000 plant has engineered features that mitigate the effects of core damage. Engineered features retain damaged core debris within the reactor vessel as a key feature. Other aspects of the design protect containment integrity during severe accidents, including unique features of the AP1000 design relative to passive containment cooling with water and air, and hydrogen management. (authors)

Hydrological modeling using a multi-site stochastic weather generator

Science.gov (United States)

Weather data is usually required at several locations over a large watershed, especially when using distributed models for hydrological simulations. In many applications, spatially correlated weather data can be provided by a multi-site stochastic weather generator which considers the spatial correl...

A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Douglas; Fowler, Hayley J; Kilsby, Christopher G; Neal, Robert

2018-02-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI-based drought months. The new weather-pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification-based analyses in the UK.

AWE: Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Weather is one of the major causes of aviation accidents. General aviation (GA) flights account for 92% of all the aviation accidents, In spite of all the official and unofficial sources of weather visualization tools available to pilots, there is an urgent need for visualizing several weather related data tailored for general aviation pilots. Our system, Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment AWE), presents graphical displays of meteorological observations, terminal area forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts onto a cartographic grid specific to the pilot's area of interest. Decisions regarding the graphical display and design are made based on careful consideration of user needs. Integral visual display of these elements of weather reports is designed for the use of GA pilots as a weather briefing and route selection tool. AWE provides linking of the weather information to the flight's path and schedule. The pilot can interact with the system to obtain aviation-specific weather for the entire area or for his specific route to explore what-if scenarios and make "go/no-go" decisions. The system, as evaluated by some pilots at NASA Ames Research Center, was found to be useful.

System 80+ design features for severe accident prevention and mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacob, M.C.; Schneider, R.E.; Finnicum, D.J.

1993-01-01

ABB-CE, in cooperation with the US Department of Energy, is working to develop and certify the System 80+ design, which is ABB-CE's standardized evolutionary Advanced Light Water Reactor (ALWR) design. It incorporates design enhancements based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) insights, guidance from the EPRI's Utility Requirements Document, and US NRC's Severe Accident Policy. Major severe accident prevention and mitigation design features of the system is discussed along with its conformance to EPRI URD guidance, as applicable. Computer simulation of a best estimate severe accident scenario is presented to illustrate the acceptable containment performance of the design. It is concluded that by considering severe accident prevention and mitigation early in the design process, the System 80+ design represents a robust plant design that has low core damage frequencies, low containment conditional failure probabilities, and acceptable deterministic containment performance under severe accident conditions

Using fire-weather forecasts and local weather observations in predicting burning index for individual fire-danger stations.

Science.gov (United States)

Owen P. Cramer

1958-01-01

Any agency engaged in forest-fire control needs accurate weather forecasts and systematic procedures for making the best use of predicted and reported weather information. This study explores the practicability of using several tabular and graphical aids for converting area forecasts and local observations of relative humidity and wind speed into predicted values for...

Convection Weather Detection by General Aviation Pilots with Convectional and Data-Linked Graphical Weather Information Sources

Science.gov (United States)

Chamberlain, James P.; Latorella, Kara A.

2001-01-01

This study compares how well general aviation (GA) pilots detect convective weather in flight with different weather information sources. A flight test was conducted in which GA pilot test subjects were given different in-flight weather information cues and flown toward convective weather of moderate or greater intensity. The test subjects were not actually flying the aircraft, but were given pilot tasks representative of the workload and position awareness requirements of the en route portion of a cross country GA flight. On each flight, one test subject received weather cues typical of a flight in visual meteorological conditions (VMC), another received cues typical of flight in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), and a third received cues typical of flight in IMC but augmented with a graphical weather information system (GWIS). The GWIS provided the subject with near real time data-linked weather products, including a weather radar mosaic superimposed on a moving map with a symbol depicting the aircraft's present position and direction of track. At several points during each flight, the test subjects completed short questionnaires which included items addressing their weather situation awareness and flight decisions. In particular, test subjects were asked to identify the location of the nearest convective cells. After the point of nearest approach to convective weather, the test subjects were asked to draw the location of convective weather on an aeronautical chart, along with the aircraft's present position. This paper reports preliminary results on how accurately test subjects provided with these different weather sources could identify the nearest cell of moderate or greater intensity along their route of flight. Additional flight tests are currently being conducted to complete the data set.

Weather derivatives: Business hedge instrument from weather risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đorđević Bojan S.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the late 1990s, a new financial market was developed - a market for weather derivatives, so that the risk managers could hedge their exposure to weather risk. After a rather slow start, the weather derivatives market had started to grow rapidly. Risk managers could no longer blame poor financial results on the weather. Weather risk could now be removed by hedging procedure. This paper will explain briefly what the weather derivatives are and will point out at some of the motives for use of derivatives. Thereafter we will look at the history of the weather risk market, how the weather derivatives market has developed in recent years and also who are the current and potential players in the weather derivatives market.

Prevalence of weather sensitivity in Germany and Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Mackensen, Sylvia; Hoeppe, Peter; Maarouf, Abdel; Tourigny, Pierre; Nowak, Dennis

2005-01-01

Several studies have shown that atmospheric conditions can affect well-being or disease, and that some individuals seem to be more sensitive to weather than others. Since epidemiological data on the prevalence of weather-related health effects are lacking, two representative weather sensitivity (WS) surveys were conducted independently in Germany and Canada. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to identify the prevalence of WS in Germany and Canada, (2) to describe weather-related symptoms and the corresponding weather conditions, and (3) to compare the findings in the two countries. In Germany 1,064 citizens (age >16 years) were interviewed in January 2001, and in Canada 1,506 persons (age >18 years) were interviewed in January 1994. The results showed that 19.2% of the German population thought that weather affected their health “to a strong degree,” 35.3% that weather had “some influence on their health” (sum of both = 54.5% weather sensitive), whereas the remaining 45.5% did not consider that weather had an effect on their health status. In Canada 61% of the respondents considered themselves to be sensitive to the weather. The highest prevalence of WS (high + some influence) in Germans was found in the age group older than 60 years (68%), which was almost identical in the Canadian population (69%). The highest frequencies of weather-related symptoms were reported in Germany for stormy weather (30%) and when it became colder (29%). In Canada mainly cold weather (46%), dampness (21%) and rain (20%) were considered to affect health more than other weather types. The most frequent symptoms reported in Germany were headache/migraine (61%), lethargy (47%), sleep disturbances (46%), fatigue (42%), joint pain (40%), irritation (31%), depression (27%), vertigo (26%), concentration problems (26%) and scar pain (23%). Canadian weather-sensitive persons reported colds (29%), psychological effects (28%) and painful joints, muscles or arthritis (10%). In Germany 32

Assessment of severe accident prevention and mitigation features: PWR, large dry containment design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perkins, K.R.; Hsu, C.J.; Lehner, J.R.; Luckas, W.J.; Cho, N.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Pratt, W.T.; Eltawila, F.; Maly, J.A.

1988-07-01

Plant features and operator actions which have been found to be important in either preventing or mitigating severe accidents in PWRs with large dry containments have been identified. These features and actions were developed from insights derived from reviews of risk assessments performed specifically for the Zion plant and from assessments of other relevant studies. Accident sequences that dominate the core-damage frequency and those accident sequences that are of potentially high consequence were identified. Vulnerabilities of the large dry containment to severe accident containment loads were also identified. In addition, those features of a PWR with a large dry containment, which are important for preventing core damage and are available for mitigating fission-product release to the environment were identified. The report is issued to provide focus to the analyst examining an individual plant. The report calls attention to plant features and operator actions and provides a list of deterministic tributes for assessing those features and actions found to be helpful in reducing the overall risk for Zion and other PWRs with large dry containments. Thus, the guidance is offered as a resource in examining the subject plant to determine if the same, or similar, plant features and operator actions will be of value in reducing overall plant risk. This report is intended to serve solely as guidance

Assessment of severe accident prevention and mitigation features: PWR, ice-condenser containment design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsu, C.J.; Perkins, K.R.; Luckas, W.J.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Cho, N.; Lehner, J.R.; Pratt, W.T.; Eltawila, F.; Maly, J.A.

1988-07-01

Plant features and operator actions which have been found to be important in either preventing and mitigating severe accidents in PWRs with ice-condenser containments have been identified. Thus features and actions were developed from insights derived from reviews of risk assessments performed specifically for the Sequoyah plant and from assessments of other relevant studies. Accident sequences that dominate the core-damage frequency and those accident sequences that are of potentially high consequence were identified. Vulnerabilities of the ice-condenser containment to sever accident containment loads were also identified. In addition, those features of a PWR with an ice-condenser containment, which are important for preventing core damage and are available for mitigating fission-product release to the environment were identified. This report is issued to provide focus to an analyst examining an individual plant. The report calls attention to plant features and operator actions and provides a list of deterministic attributes for assessing those features and actions found to be helpful in reducing the overall risk for Sequoyah and other PWRs with ice-condenser containments. Thus, the guidance is offered as a resource in examining the subject plant to determine if the same, or similar, plant features and operator actions will be of value in reducing overall plant risk. This report is intended to serve solely as guidance. 14 tabs

Assessment of severe accident prevention and mitigation features: BWR, Mark II containment design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehner, J.R.; Hsu, C.J.; Eltawila, F.; Perkins, K.R.; Luckas, W.J.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Pratt, W.T.

1988-07-01

Plant features and operator actions, which have been found to be important in either preventing or mitigating severe accidents in BWRs with Mark II containments (BWR Mark II's) have been identified. These features and actions were developed from insights derived from reviews of in-depth risk assessments performed specifically for the Limerick and Shoreham plants and from other relevant studies. Accident sequences that dominate the core-damage frequency and those accident sequences that are of potentially high consequence were identified. Vulnerabilities of the BWR Mark II to severe-accident containment loads were also noted. In addition, those features of a BWR Mark II, which are important for preventing core damage and are available for mitigating fission-product release to the environment were also identified. This report is issued to provide focus to an analyst examining an individual plant. This report calls attention to plant features and operator actions and provides a list of deterministic attributes for assessing those features and actions found to be helpful in reducing the overall risk for Mark II plants. Thus, the guidance is offered as a resource in examining the subject plant to determine if the same, or similar, plant features and operator actions will be of value in reducing overall plant risk. This report is intended to serve solely as guidance

Development of Lightning Observation Network in the Western Pacific Region for the Intensity Prediction of Severe Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, M.; Takahashi, Y.; Yamashita, K.; Kubota, H.; Hamada, J. I.; Momota, E.; Marciano, J. J.

2017-12-01

Lightning activity represents the thunderstorm activity, that is, the precipitation and/or updraft intensity and area. Thunderstorm activity is also an important parameter in terms of the energy inputs from the ocean to the atmosphere inside tropical cyclone, which is one of severe weather events. Recent studies suggest that it is possible to predict the maximum wind velocity and minimum pressure near the center of the tropical cyclone by one or two days before if we monitor the lightning activities in the tropical cyclone. Many countries in the western Pacific region suffer from the attack of tropical cyclone (typhoon) and have a strong demand to predict the intensity development of typhoons. Thus, we started developing a new lightning observation system and installing the observation system at Guam, Palau, and Manila in the Philippines from this summer. The lightning observation system consists of a VLF sensor detecting lightning-excited electromagnetic waves in the frequency range of 1-5 kHz, an automatic data-processing unit, solar panels, and batteries. Lightning-excited pulse signals detected by the VLF sensor are automatically analyzed by the data-processing unit, and only the extracted information of the trigger time and pulse amplitude is transmitted to a data server via the 3G data communications. In addition, we are now developing an upgraded lightning and weather observation system, which will be installed at 50 automated weather stations in Metro Manila and 10 radar sites in the Philippines under the 5-year project (SATREPS) scheme. At the presentation, we will show the initial results derived from the lightning observation system in detail and will show the detailed future plan of the SATREPS project.

The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events

KAUST Repository

Luong, Thang M.; Castro, Christopher L.; Chang, Hsin-I; Lahmers, Timothy; Adams, David K.; Ochoa-Moya, Carlos A.

2017-01-01

Long-term changes in North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation intensity in the southwestern United States are evaluated through the use of convective-permitting model simulations of objectively identified severe weather events during

The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events

KAUST Repository

Luong, Thang M.

2017-07-03

Long-term changes in North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation intensity in the southwestern United States are evaluated through the use of convective-permitting model simulations of objectively identified severe weather events during

A review of multimodel superensemble forecasting for weather, seasonal climate, and hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, V.; Simon, A.; Bhardwaj, A.; Ghosh, T.; Ross, R.

2016-06-01

This review provides a summary of work in the area of ensemble forecasts for weather, climate, oceans, and hurricanes. This includes a combination of multiple forecast model results that does not dwell on the ensemble mean but uses a unique collective bias reduction procedure. A theoretical framework for this procedure is provided, utilizing a suite of models that is constructed from the well-known Lorenz low-order nonlinear system. A tutorial that includes a walk-through table and illustrates the inner workings of the multimodel superensemble's principle is provided. Systematic errors in a single deterministic model arise from a host of features that range from the model's initial state (data assimilation), resolution, representation of physics, dynamics, and ocean processes, local aspects of orography, water bodies, and details of the land surface. Models, in their diversity of representation of such features, end up leaving unique signatures of systematic errors. The multimodel superensemble utilizes as many as 10 million weights to take into account the bias errors arising from these diverse features of multimodels. The design of a single deterministic forecast models that utilizes multiple features from the use of the large volume of weights is provided here. This has led to a better understanding of the error growths and the collective bias reductions for several of the physical parameterizations within diverse models, such as cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer physics, and radiative transfer. A number of examples for weather, seasonal climate, hurricanes and sub surface oceanic forecast skills of member models, the ensemble mean, and the superensemble are provided.

Severe Weather Events over Southeastern Brazil during the 2016 Dry Season

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanda Rehbein

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Southeastern Brazil is the most populated and economically developed region of this country. Its climate consists of two distinct seasons: the dry season, extending from April to September, the precipitation is significantly reduced in comparison to that of the wet season, which extends from October to March. However, during nine days of the 2016 dry season, successive convective systems were associated with atypical precipitation events, tornadoes and at least one microburst over the southern part of this region. These events led to flooding, damages to buildings, shortages of electricity and water in several places, many injuries, and two documented deaths. The present study investigates the synoptic and dynamical features related to these anomalous events. The convective systems were embedded in an unstable environment with intense low-level jet flow and strong wind shear and were supported by a sequence of extratropical cyclones occurring over the Southwest Atlantic Ocean. These features were intensified by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO in its phase 8 and by intense negative values of the Pacific South America (PSA 2 mode.

Impact of Tactical and Strategic Weather Avoidance on Separation Assurance

Science.gov (United States)

Refai, Mohamad S.; Windhorst, Robert

2011-01-01

The ability to keep flights away from weather hazards while maintaining aircraft-to-aircraft separation is critically important. The Advanced Airspace Concept is an automation concept that implements a ground-based strategic conflict resolution algorithm for management of aircraft separation. The impact of dynamic and uncertain weather avoidance on this concept is investigated. A strategic weather rerouting system is integrated with the Advanced Airspace Concept, which also provides a tactical weather avoidance algorithm, in a fast time simulation of the Air Transportation System. Strategic weather rerouting is used to plan routes around weather in the 20 minute to two-hour time horizon. To address forecast uncertainty, flight routes are revised at 15 minute intervals. Tactical weather avoidance is used for short term trajectory adjustments (30 minute planning horizon) that are updated every minute to address any weather conflicts (instances where aircraft are predicted to pass through weather cells) that are left unresolved by strategic weather rerouting. The fast time simulation is used to assess the impact of tactical weather avoidance on the performance of automated conflict resolution as well as the impact of strategic weather rerouting on both conflict resolution and tactical weather avoidance. The results demonstrate that both tactical weather avoidance and strategic weather rerouting increase the algorithm complexity required to find aircraft conflict resolutions. Results also demonstrate that tactical weather avoidance is prone to higher airborne delay than strategic weather rerouting. Adding strategic weather rerouting to tactical weather avoidance reduces total airborne delays for the reported scenario by 18% and reduces the number of remaining weather violations by 13%. Finally, two features are identified that have proven important for strategic weather rerouting to realize these benefits; namely, the ability to revise reroutes and the use of maneuvers

Graphical tools for TV weather presentation

Science.gov (United States)

Najman, M.

2010-09-01

Contemporary meteorology and its media presentation faces in my opinion following key tasks: - Delivering the meteorological information to the end user/spectator in understandable and modern fashion, which follows industry standard of video output (HD, 16:9) - Besides weather icons show also the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, climatological data, satellite and radar images, observed weather as actual as possible. - Does not compromise the accuracy of presented data. - Ability to prepare and adjust the weather show according to actual synoptic situtation. - Ability to refocus and completely adjust the weather show to actual extreme weather events. - Ground map resolution weather data presentation need to be at least 20 m/pixel to be able to follow the numerical weather prediction model resolution. - Ability to switch between different numerical weather prediction models each day, each show or even in the middle of one weather show. - The graphical weather software need to be flexible and fast. The graphical changes nee to be implementable and airable within minutes before the show or even live. These tasks are so demanding and the usual original approach of custom graphics could not deal with it. It was not able to change the show every day, the shows were static and identical day after day. To change the content of the weather show daily was costly and most of the time impossible with the usual approach. The development in this area is fast though and there are several different options for weather predicting organisations such as national meteorological offices and private meteorological companies to solve this problem. What are the ways to solve it? What are the limitations and advantages of contemporary graphical tools for meteorologists? All these questions will be answered.

Effect of severe weather events on the shedding of Shiga toxigenic Escherichia coli in slaughter cattle and phenotype of serogroup O157 isolates.

Science.gov (United States)

Stanford, Kim; Reuter, Tim; Bach, Susan J; Chui, Linda; Ma, Angela; Conrad, Cheyenne C; Tostes, Renata; McAllister, Tim A

2017-09-01

High-event periods (HEPs) occur sporadically when beef carcasses and meat have episodes of acute contamination with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC). In this study, severe weather events were investigated as catalysts for HEPs based on PCR and isolate prevalence of seven E. coli serogroups in slaughter cattle feces. Winter ambient temperatures with daily means 10.5oC warmer or 12.3°C colder than seasonal norms (-10.4°C) most altered STEC shedding. Fecal samples yielded increased proportions (P  10 min and one also had strong biofilm-forming potential. However, this isolate lacked eae and stx genes. Severe weather can influence STEC shedding, particularly of O157, and could possibly trigger HEPs. However, our data suggest that it is unlikely for isolates to carry virulence genes and possess phenotypes capable of evading post-harvest microbiological interventions. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Hydrologic applications of weather radar

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Dong-Jun; Habib, Emad; Andrieu, Hervé; Morin, Efrat

2015-12-01

By providing high-resolution quantitative precipitation information (QPI), weather radars have revolutionized hydrology in the last two decades. With the aid of GIS technology, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) have enabled routine high-resolution hydrologic modeling in many parts of the world. Given the ever-increasing need for higher-resolution hydrologic and water resources information for a wide range of applications, one may expect that the use of weather radar will only grow. Despite the tremendous progress, a number of significant scientific, technological and engineering challenges remain to realize its potential. New challenges are also emerging as new areas of applications are discovered, explored and pursued. The purpose of this special issue is to provide the readership with some of the latest advances, lessons learned, experiences gained, and science issues and challenges related to hydrologic applications of weather radar. The special issue features 20 contributions on various topics which reflect the increasing diversity as well as the areas of focus in radar hydrology today. The contributions may be grouped as follows:

Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

Science.gov (United States)

Niknejad, M.; Mazdiyasni, O.; Momtaz, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme climatic events have direct and indirect impacts on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe weather conditions' destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This paper proposes new software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that involves

Extreme Space Weather Events: From Cradle to Grave

Science.gov (United States)

Riley, Pete; Baker, Dan; Liu, Ying D.; Verronen, Pekka; Singer, Howard; Güdel, Manuel

2018-02-01

Extreme space weather events, while rare, can have a substantial impact on our technologically-dependent society. And, although such events have only occasionally been observed, through careful analysis of a wealth of space-based and ground-based observations, historical records, and extrapolations from more moderate events, we have developed a basic picture of the components required to produce them. Several key issues, however, remain unresolved. For example, what limits are imposed on the maximum size of such events? What are the likely societal consequences of a so-called "100-year" solar storm? In this review, we summarize our current scientific understanding about extreme space weather events as we follow several examples from the Sun, through the solar corona and inner heliosphere, across the magnetospheric boundary, into the ionosphere and atmosphere, into the Earth's lithosphere, and, finally, its impact on man-made structures and activities, such as spacecraft, GPS signals, radio communication, and the electric power grid. We describe preliminary attempts to provide probabilistic forecasts of extreme space weather phenomena, and we conclude by identifying several key areas that must be addressed if we are better able to understand, and, ultimately, predict extreme space weather events.

LOCAL WEATHER CLASSIFICATIONS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL APPLICATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katarzyna PIOTROWICZ

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Two approaches of local weather type definitions are presented and illustrated for selected stations of Poland and Hungary. The subjective classification, continuing long traditions, especially in Poland, relies on diurnal values of local weather elements. The main types are defined according to temperature with some sub-types considering relative sunshine duration, diurnal precipitation totals, relative humidity and wind speed. The classification does not make a difference between the seasons of the year, but the occurrence of the classes obviously reflects the annual cycle. Another important feature of this classification is that only a minor part of the theoretically possible combination of the various types and sub-types occurs in all stations of both countries. The objective version of the classification starts from ten possible weather element which are reduced to four according to factor analysis, based on strong correlation between the elements. This analysis yields 3 to 4 factors depending on the specific criteria of selection. The further cluster analysis uses four selected weather elements belonging to different rotated factors. They are the diurnal mean values of temperature, of relative humidity, of cloudiness and of wind speed. From the possible ways of hierarchical cluster analysis (i.e. no a priori assumption on the number of classes, the method of furthest neighbours is selected, indicating the arguments of this decision in the paper. These local weather types are important tools in understanding the role of weather in various environmental indicators, in climatic generalisation of short samples by stratified sampling and in interpretation of the climate change.

Bringing Space Weather Down to Earth

Science.gov (United States)

Reiff, P. H.; Sumners, C.

2005-05-01

Most of the public has no idea what Space Weather is, but a number of innovative programs, web sites, magazine articles, TV shows and planetarium shows have taken space weather from an unknown quantity to a much more visible field. This paper reviews new developments, including the new Space Weather journal, the very popular spaceweather.com website, new immersive planetarium shows that can go "on the road", and well-publicized Sun-Earth Day activities. Real-time data and reasonably accurate spaceweather forecasts are available from several websites, with many subscribers. Even the renaissance of amateur radio because of Homeland Security brings a new generation of learners to wonder what is going on in the Sun today. The NSF Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling has a dedicated team to reach both the public and a greater diversity of new scientists.

Trusted Spotter Network Austria - a new standard to utilize crowdsourced weather and impact observations

Science.gov (United States)

Krennert, Thomas; Kaltenberger, Rainer; Pistotnik, Georg; Holzer, Alois M.; Zeiler, Franz; Stampfl, Mathias

2018-05-01

Information from voluntary storm spotters has been an increasingly important part for the severe weather warning process at the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie and Geodynamik (ZAMG), Austria's National Weather Service, for almost 15 years. In 2010 a collaboration was formalized and an annual training was established to educate voluntary observers into Trusted Spotters. The return of this investment is a higher credibility of their observations after these spotters have undergone a basic meteorological training and have become aware of their responsibility. The European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) was included to this collaboration to adopt their successful quality control system of severe weather reports, which is employed in the European Severe Weather Database ESWD. That way, reports from Trusted Spotters automatically obtain a higher quality flag, which enables a faster processing by forecasters on duty for severe weather warnings, when time is a critical issue. The concept of combining training for voluntary storm spotters and a thorough quality management was recognized as a Best Practice Model by the European Meteorological Society. We propose to apply this concept also in other European countries and present its advancement into an even broader, pan-European approach. The European Weather Observer app EWOB, recently released by ESSL, provides a novel and easy-to-handle tool to submit weather and respective impact observations. We promote its use to provide better data and information for a further real-time improvement of severe weather warnings.

The weather-stains of care: interpreting the meaning of bad weather for front-line health care workers in rural long-term care.

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph, Gillian M; Skinner, Mark W; Yantzi, Nicole M

2013-08-01

This paper addresses the gap in health services and policy research about the implications of everyday weather for health care work. Building on previous research on the weather-related challenges of caregiving in homes and communities, it examines the experiences of 'seasonal bad weather' for health care workers in long-term care institutions. It features a hermeneutic phenomenology analysis of six transcripts from interviews with nurses and personal support workers from a qualitative study of institutional long-term care work in rural Canada. Focussing on van Manen's existential themes of lived experience (body, relations, space, time), the analysis reveals important contradictions between the lived experiences of health care workers coping with bad weather and long-term care policies and practices that mitigate weather-related risk and vulnerability. The findings contribute to the growing concern for rural health issues particularly the neglected experiences of rural health providers and, in doing so, offer insight into the recent call for greater attention to the geographies of health care work. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical and Endoscopic Features of Undifferentiated Gastric Cancer in Patients with Severe Atrophic Gastritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kishino, Maiko; Nakamura, Shinichi; Shiratori, Keiko

2016-01-01

Differentiated gastric cancer generally develops in the atrophic gastric mucosa, although undifferentiated cancer is sometimes encountered in patients with severe atrophic gastritis. We characterized the endoscopic features of undifferentiated gastric cancer in patients with severe atrophic gastritis. Stage IA early gastric cancer was diagnosed in 501 patients who were admitted to our hospital between April 2003 and March 2012. The endoscopic and pathological findings were compared among 29 patients with undifferentiated cancer and severe atrophic gastritis, 104 patients with undifferentiated cancer and mild/moderate atrophic gastritis and 223 patients with well-differentiated cancer and severe atrophic gastritis. Endoscopic atrophic gastritis was classified according to the Kimura-Takemoto classification as no gastritis, C-1 and C-2 (mild), C-3 and O-1 (moderate) or O-2 and O-3 (severe). The tumors were larger and showed deeper mural invasion in the patients with undifferentiated cancer and severe atrophic gastritis than in those with well-differentiated cancer and severe gastritis or undifferentiated cancer and mild/moderate gastritis. On endoscopy, undifferentiated cancer associated with severe gastritis was often red in color. It is often difficult to diagnose early undifferentiated gastric cancer, especially in patients with severe atrophic gastritis. The present study characterized the important endoscopic features of such tumors.

Weather Support for the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Science.gov (United States)

Horel, J.; Potter, T.; Dunn, L.; Steenburgh, W. J.; Eubank, M.; Splitt, M.; Onton, D. J.

2002-02-01

The 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games will be hosted by Salt Lake City, Utah, during February-March 2002. Adverse weather during this period may delay sporting events, while snow and ice-covered streets and highways may impede access by the athletes and spectators to the venues. While winter snowstorms and other large-scale weather systems typically have widespread impacts throughout northern Utah, hazardous winter weather is often related to local terrain features (the Wasatch Mountains and Great Salt Lake are the most prominent ones). Examples of such hazardous weather include lake-effect snowstorms, ice fog, gap winds, downslope windstorms, and low visibility over mountain passes.A weather support system has been developed to provide weather information to the athletes, games officials, spectators, and the interested public around the world. This system is managed by the Salt Lake Olympic Committee and relies upon meteorologists from the public, private, and academic sectors of the atmospheric science community. Weather forecasting duties will be led by National Weather Service forecasters and a team of private, weather forecasters organized by KSL, the Salt Lake City NBC television affiliate. Other government agencies, commercial firms, and the University of Utah are providing specialized forecasts and support services for the Olympics. The weather support system developed for the 2002 Winter Olympics is expected to provide long-term benefits to the public through improved understanding,monitoring, and prediction of winter weather in the Intermountain West.

WEATHER INDEX- THE BASIS OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Botos Horia Mircea

2011-07-01

Full Text Available This paper approaches the subject of Weather Derivatives, more exactly their basic element the weather index. The weather index has two forms, the Heating Degree Day (HDD and the Cooling Degree Day (CDD. We will try to explain their origin, use and the relationship between the two forms of the index. In our research we started from the analysis of the weather derivatives and what they are based on. After finding out about weather index, we were interested in understanding exactly how they work and how they influence the value of the contract. On the national level the research in the field is scares, but foreign materials available. The study for this paper was based firstly on reading about Weather Derivative, and then going in the meteorogical field and determining the way by which the indices were determined. After this, we went to the field with interest in the indices, such as the energy and gas industries, and figured out how they determined the weather index. For the examples we obtained data from the weather index database, and calculated the value for the period. The study is made on a period of five years, in 8 cities of the European Union. The result of this research is that we can now understand better the importance of the way the indices work and how they influence the value of the Weather Derivatives. This research has an implication on the field of insurance, because of the fact that weather derivative are at the convergence point of the stock markets and the insurance market. The originality of the paper comes from the personal touch given to the theoretical aspect and through the analysis of the HDD and CDD index in order to show their general behaviour and relationship.

Combating bad weather part I rain removal from video

CERN Document Server

Mukhopadhyay, Sudipta

2015-01-01

Current vision systems are designed to perform in normal weather condition. However, no one can escape from severe weather conditions. Bad weather reduces scene contrast and visibility, which results in degradation in the performance of various computer vision algorithms such as object tracking, segmentation and recognition. Thus, current vision systems must include some mechanisms that enable them to perform up to the mark in bad weather conditions such as rain and fog. Rain causes the spatial and temporal intensity variations in images or video frames. These intensity changes are due to the

The effect of inclement weather on trauma orthopaedic workload.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cashman, J P

2012-01-31

BACKGROUND: Climate change models predict increasing frequency of extreme weather. One of the challenges hospitals face is how to make sure they have adequate staffing at various times of the year. AIMS: The aim of this study was to examine the effect of this severe inclement weather on hospital admissions, operative workload and cost in the Irish setting. We hypothesised that there is a direct relationship between cold weather and workload in a regional orthopaedic trauma unit. METHODS: Trauma orthopaedic workload in a regional trauma unit was examined over 2 months between December 2009 and January 2010. This corresponded with a period of severe inclement weather. RESULTS: We identified a direct correlation between the drop in temperature and increase in workload, with a corresponding increase in demand on resources. CONCLUSIONS: Significant cost savings could be made if these injuries were prevented. While the information contained in this study is important in the context of resource planning and staffing of hospital trauma units, it also highlights the vulnerability of the Irish population to wintery weather.

Assessing Weather Curiosity in University Students

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, A. E.

2017-12-01

This research focuses upon measuring an individual's level of trait curiosity about the weather using the Weather Curiosity Scale (WCS). The measure consists of 15 self-report items that describe weather preferences and/or behaviors that people may perform more or less frequently. The author reports on two initial studies of the WCS that have used the responses of 710 undergraduate students from a large university in the southeastern United States. In the first study, factor analysis of the 15 items indicated that the measure was unidimensional - suggesting that its items singularly assessed weather curiosity. The WCS also was internally consistent as evidenced by an acceptable Cronbach's alpha, a = .81). The second study sought to identify other personality variables that may relate with the WCS scores and thus illuminate the nature of weather curiosity. Several clusters of personality variables appear to underlie the curiosity levels people exhibited, the first of which related to perceptual curiosity (r = .59). Being curious about sights, sounds, smells, and textures generally related somewhat to curiosity about weather. Two measures of trait sensitivity to environmental stimulation, the Highly Sensitive Person Scale (r = .47) and the Orientation Sensitivity Scale of the Adult Temperament Questionnaire (r = .43), also predicted weather curiosity levels. Finally, possessing extraverted personality traits (r = .34) and an intense style of experiencing one's emotions (r = .33) related to weather curiosity. How can this measure be used in K-12 or post-secondary settings to further climate literacy? First, the WCS can identify students with natural curiosities about weather and climate so these students may be given more challenging instruction that will leverage their natural interests. Second, high-WCS students may function as weather and climate ambassadors during inquiry-based learning activities and thus help other students who are not as oriented to the

Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Manobianco, John T.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dianic, Allan V.; Wheeler, Mark W.; Zack, John W.; Nutter, Paul A.

2003-01-01

Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes

The interaction between awareness of one's own speech disorder with linguistics variables: distinctive features and severity of phonological disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Dias, Roberta Freitas; Melo, Roberta Michelon; Mezzomo, Carolina Lisbôa; Mota, Helena Bolli

2013-01-01

To analyze the possible relationship among the awareness of one's own speech disorder and some aspects of the phonological system, as the number and the type of changed distinctive features, as well as the interaction among the severity of the disorder and the non-specification of distinctive features. The analyzed group has 23 children with diagnosis of speech disorder, aged 5:0 to 7:7. The speech data were analyzed through the Distinctive Features Analysis and classified by the Percentage of Correct Consonants. One also applied the Awareness of one's own speech disorder test. The children were separated in two groups: with awareness of their own speech disorder established (more than 50% of correct identification) and without awareness of their own speech disorder established (less than 50% of correct identification). Finally, the variables of this research were submitted to analysis using descriptive and inferential statistics. The type of changed distinctive features weren't different between the groups, as well as the total of changed features and the severity disorder. However, a correlation between the severity disorder and the non-specification of distinctive features was verified, because the more severe disorders have more changes in these linguistic variables. The awareness of one's own speech disorder doesn't seem to be directly influenced by the type and by the number of changed distinctive features, neither by the speech disorder severity. Moreover, one verifies that the greater phonological disorder severity, the greater the number of changed distinctive features.

Longing for Clouds - Does Beautiful Weather have to be Fine?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mădălina Diaconu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Any attempt to outline a meteorological aesthetics centered on so-called beautiful weather has to overcome several difficulties: In everyday life, the appreciation of the weather is mostly related to practical interests or reduced to the ideal of stereotypical fine weather that is conceived according to blue-sky thinking irrespective of climate diversity. Also, an aesthetics of fine weather seems, strictly speaking, to be impossible given that such weather conditions usually allow humans to focus on aspects other than weather, which contradicts the autotelic character of beauty. The unreflective equation of beautiful weather with moderately sunny weather and a cloudless sky also collides with the psychological need for variation: even living in a “paradisal” climate would be condemned to end in monotony. Finally, whereas fine weather is related in modern realistic literature to cosmic harmony and a universal natural order, contemporary literary examples show that in the age of the climate change, fine weather may be deceitful and its passive contemplation, irresponsible. This implies the necessity of a reflective aesthetic attitude on weather, as influenced by art, literature, and science, which discovers the poetics of bad weather and the wonder that underlies average weather conditions.

Adaptive Numerical Algorithms in Space Weather Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Toth, Gabor; vanderHolst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor V.; DeZeeuw, Darren; Gombosi, Tamas I.; Fang, Fang; Manchester, Ward B.; Meng, Xing; Nakib, Dalal; Powell, Kenneth G.;

Analysis of a severe weather event over Mecca, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, using observations and high-resolution modelling

KAUST Repository

Dasari, Hari Prasad; Attada, Raju; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2017-01-01

The dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of a severe weather event that caused heavy wind and rainfall over Mecca, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, on 11 September 2015 were investigated using available observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model configured at 1 km resolution. Analysis of surface, upper air observations and model outputs reveals that the event was initiated by synoptic scale conditions that intensified by interaction with the local topography, triggering strong winds and high convective rainfall. The model predicted the observed characteristics of both rainfall and winds well, accurately predicting the maximum wind speed of 20–25 m s−1 that was sustained for about 2 h. A time series analysis of various atmospheric variables suggests a sudden fall in pressure, temperature and outgoing long wave radiation before the development of the storm, followed by a significant increase in wind speed, latent and moisture fluxes and change in wind direction during the mature stage of the storm. The model outputs suggest that the heavy rainfall was induced by a low-level moisture supply from the Red Sea combined with orographic lifting. Latent heat release from microphysical processes increased the vertical velocities in the mid-troposphere, further increasing the low-level convergence that strengthened the event.

Analysis of a severe weather event over Mecca, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, using observations and high-resolution modelling

KAUST Repository

Dasari, Hari Prasad

2017-08-10

The dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of a severe weather event that caused heavy wind and rainfall over Mecca, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, on 11 September 2015 were investigated using available observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model configured at 1 km resolution. Analysis of surface, upper air observations and model outputs reveals that the event was initiated by synoptic scale conditions that intensified by interaction with the local topography, triggering strong winds and high convective rainfall. The model predicted the observed characteristics of both rainfall and winds well, accurately predicting the maximum wind speed of 20–25 m s−1 that was sustained for about 2 h. A time series analysis of various atmospheric variables suggests a sudden fall in pressure, temperature and outgoing long wave radiation before the development of the storm, followed by a significant increase in wind speed, latent and moisture fluxes and change in wind direction during the mature stage of the storm. The model outputs suggest that the heavy rainfall was induced by a low-level moisture supply from the Red Sea combined with orographic lifting. Latent heat release from microphysical processes increased the vertical velocities in the mid-troposphere, further increasing the low-level convergence that strengthened the event.

Acidic weathering of carbonate building stones: experimental assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryszard Kryza

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Three types of carbonate rocks, travertine, limestone and marble have been studied to determine their selected technical parameters (water absorption, resistance to salt crystallization damage and reaction to experimentally modelled acid rain weathering imitating the polluted urban atmospheric conditions. The acidic agents present in natural acid rain precipitation, H2SO4, HCl, HNO3, CH3COOH and mixture of all the acids, “Acid mix”, were tested. The initial stages of acid weathering involve, apart from chemical dissolution, particularly intense physical detachment of rock particles (granular disintegration significantly contributing to the total mass loss. Travertine was found to be most prone to salt crystallization damage and to acid weathering, and these features should be taken into account especially in external architectural usage of this stone in cold climate conditions and polluted urban atmosphere.

Oil spill cleanup in severe weather and open ocean conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kowalski, T.

1993-01-01

Most serious oil spills occur in open water under severe weather conditions. At first the oil stays on the surface, where it is spread by winds and water currents. The action of the waves then mixes the oil into the water column. With time the light elements of crude oil evaporate. The remaining residue is of very low commercial value, but of significant environmental impact. The oil spill can move either out to sea or inshore, where it ends up on the beaches. Normal procedures are to let outbound oil disperse by evaporation and mixing into the water column, and to let the inbound oil collect on the beaches, where the cleanup operations are concentrated. The reason for this is that there is no capability to clean the surface of the water in wave conditions-present-day oil skimmers are ineffective in waves approaching 4 ft in height. It would be simpler, more effective and environmentally more beneficial to skim the oil right at the spill location. This paper describes a method to do this. In the case of an oil spill in open water and high wave conditions, it is proposed to reduce the height of the ocean waves by the use of floating breakwaters to provide a relatively calm area. In such protected areas existing oil skimmers can be used to recover valuable oil and clean up the spill long before it hits the beaches. A floating breakwater developed at the University of Rhode Island by the author can be of great benefit in oil spill cleanup for open ocean conditions. This breakwater is constructed from scrap automobile tires. It is built in units of 20 tires each, which are easily transportable and can be connected together at the spill site to form any desired configuration

NATO Advanced Research Workshop on The Chemistry of Weathering

CERN Document Server

1985-01-01

Several important developments in our understanding of the chemistry of weathering have occurred in the last few years: 1. There has been a major breakthrough in our understanding of the mechanisms controlling the kinetics of sil icate dissolution, and there have been major advances in computer modeling of weathering processes. 2. There has been a growing recognition of the importance of organic solutes in the weathering process, and hence of the inter-relationships between mineral weathering and the terrestrial ecosystem. 3. The impact of acid deposition ("acid rain") has been widely recognized. The processes by which acid deposition is neutral ized are closely related to the processes of normal chemical weathering; an understanding of the chemistry of weathering is thus essential for predicting the effects of acid deposition. 4. More high-qual ity data have become available on the chemical dynamics of smal I watersheds and large river systems, which represent the integrated effects of chemical weathering.

Third Space Weather Summit Held for Industry and Government Agencies

Science.gov (United States)

Intriligator, Devrie S.

2009-12-01

The potential for space weather effects has been increasing significantly in recent years. For instance, in 2008 airlines flew about 8000 transpolar flights, which experience greater exposure to space weather than nontranspolar flights. This is up from 368 transpolar flights in 2000, and the number of such flights is expected to continue to grow. Transpolar flights are just one example of the diverse technologies susceptible to space weather effects identified by the National Research Council's Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (2008). To discuss issues related to the increasing need for reliable space weather information, experts from industry and government agencies met at the third summit of the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group (CSWIG) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), held 30 April 2009 during Space Weather Week (SWW), in Boulder, Colo.

Design features of ACR in severe accident mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shapiro, H.; Krishnan, V.S.; Santamaura, P.; Lekakh, B.; Blahnik, C.

2007-01-01

New reactor designs require the evaluation of design alternatives to reduce the radiological risk by preventing severe accidents or by limiting releases from the plant in the event of such accidents. The Advanced CANDU Reactor TM (ACR TM ) design has provisions to prevent and mitigate severe accidents. This paper describes key ACR design features for severe accident mitigation. It provides a high-level overview of the findings to date. Several design provisions have not yet been finalized or decided, but the designers are keenly aware of the SAM concepts and their requirements. The active heat sinks for 'vessels' (i.e., the fuel channels, the calandria vessel, the calandria end-shields and the calandria vault) are all amply capable of dissipating the severe accident heat loads. These heat sinks are designed to be operable under severe accident environmental conditions; however, their operability is yet to be confirmed by assessments. The active heat sinks for the various process vessels are 'backed up' by passive heat sinks (i.e., steaming plus water make-up from the RWS). The supply side of passive heat sinks is simple, rugged, and not vulnerable to failures of plant systems. The importance of the steam relief side is recognized, and the adequate relief capacity will be provided. The passive heat sinks will give the SAM more than 1 day (likely several days) to diagnose the accident and to establish the ultimate heat sinks. The spray system for containment pressure suppression is designed for high reliability and has ample capacity to ensure low containment leakage without external intervention, after which time alternative supply to the sprays can be brought on line manually. The sprays are backed up by the LACs which are assessed for operability following a severe accident. The strong ACR containment will provide a long time of completely passive protection for any severe accident at decay power. Its characteristics are not prone to catastrophic failures. The

... AND HERE COMES THE WEATHER - Austrian TV and radio weather news in the eye of the public

Science.gov (United States)

Keul, A.; Holzer, A. M.; Wostal, T.

2010-09-01

Media weather reports as the main avenue of meteorological and climatological information to the general public have always been in the focus of critical investigation. Former research found that although weather reports are high-interest topics, the amount of information recalled by non-experts is rather low, and criticized this. A pilot study (Keul et al., 2009) by the Salzburg University in cooperation with ORF, the Austrian Broadcasting Corporation, used historic radio files on a fair-weather and a storm situation. It identified the importance of intelligible wording of the weather forecast messages for lay people. Without quality control, weather information can stimulate rumours, false comfort or false alarms. More qualitative and experimental research, also on TV weather, seems justified. This need for further research was addressed by a second and larger field experiment in the spring of 2010. The survey took place in Salzburg City, Austria, with a quota sample of about 90 lay persons. This time TV and radio weather reports were used and a more realistic listening and viewing situation was created by presenting the latest weather forecasts of the given day to the test persons in the very next hours after originally broadcasting them. It asked lay people what they find important in the weather reports and what they remember for their actual next-day use. Reports of a fairweather prognosis were compared with a warning condition. The weather media mix of the users was explored. A second part of the study was a questionnaire which tested the understanding of typical figures of speech used in weather forecasts or even meteorological terms, which might also be important for fully understanding the severe weather warnings. This leads to quantitative and qualitative analysis from which the most important and unexpected results are presented. Short presentation times (1.5 to 2 minutes) make Austrian radio and TV weather reports a narrow compromise between general

Space Weather Forecasting and Supporting Research in the USA

Science.gov (United States)

Pevtsov, A. A.

2017-12-01

In the United State, scientific research in space weather is funded by several Government Agencies including the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA). For civilian and commercial purposes, space weather forecast is done by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Observational data for modeling come from the network of groundbased observatories funded via various sources, as well as from the instruments on spacecraft. Numerical models used in forecast are developed in framework of individual research projects. The article provides a brief review of current state of space weather-related research and forecasting in the USA.

Earth Remote Sensing for Weather Forecasting and Disaster Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Molthan, Andrew; Bell, Jordan; Case, Jonathan; Cole, Tony; Elmer, Nicholas; McGrath, Kevin; Schultz, Lori; Zavodsky, Brad

2016-01-01

NASA's constellation of current missions provide several opportunities to apply satellite remote sensing observations to weather forecasting and disaster response applications. Examples include: Using NASA's Terra and Aqua MODIS, and the NASA/NOAA Suomi-NPP VIIRS missions to prepare weather forecasters for capabilities of GOES-R; Incorporating other NASA remote sensing assets for improving aspects of numerical weather prediction; Using NASA, NOAA, and international partner resources (e.g. ESA/Sentinel Series); and commercial platforms (high-res, or UAV) to support disaster mapping.

Creating a Realistic Weather Environment for Motion-Based Piloted Flight Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, Taumi S.; Schaffner, Philip R.; Evans, Emory T.; Neece, Robert T.; Young, Steve D.

2012-01-01

A flight simulation environment is being enhanced to facilitate experiments that evaluate research prototypes of advanced onboard weather radar, hazard/integrity monitoring (HIM), and integrated alerting and notification (IAN) concepts in adverse weather conditions. The simulation environment uses weather data based on real weather events to support operational scenarios in a terminal area. A simulated atmospheric environment was realized by using numerical weather data sets. These were produced from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model hosted and run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). To align with the planned flight simulation experiment requirements, several HRRR data sets were acquired courtesy of NOAA. These data sets coincided with severe weather events at the Memphis International Airport (MEM) in Memphis, TN. In addition, representative flight tracks for approaches and departures at MEM were generated and used to develop and test simulations of (1) what onboard sensors such as the weather radar would observe; (2) what datalinks of weather information would provide; and (3) what atmospheric conditions the aircraft would experience (e.g. turbulence, winds, and icing). The simulation includes a weather radar display that provides weather and turbulence modes, derived from the modeled weather along the flight track. The radar capabilities and the pilots controls simulate current-generation commercial weather radar systems. Appropriate data-linked weather advisories (e.g., SIGMET) were derived from the HRRR weather models and provided to the pilot consistent with NextGen concepts of use for Aeronautical Information Service (AIS) and Meteorological (MET) data link products. The net result of this simulation development was the creation of an environment that supports investigations of new flight deck information systems, methods for incorporation of better weather information, and pilot interface and operational improvements

Integration of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Imagery and Derived Products into Severe Weather Disaster Response

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, L. A.; Molthan, A.; Nicoll, J. B.; Bell, J. R.; Gens, R.; Meyer, F. J.

2017-12-01

Disaster response efforts leveraging imagery from NASA, USGS, NOAA, and the European Space Agency (ESA) have continued to expand as satellite imagery and derived products offer an enhanced overview of the affected areas, especially in remote areas where terrain and the scale of the damage can inhibit response efforts. NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been supporting the NASA Earth Science Disaster Response Program by providing both optical and SAR imagery products to the NWS and FEMA to assist during domestic response efforts. Although optical imagery has dominated, the availability of ESA's Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data from the Sentinel 1-A/B satellites offers a unique perspective to the damage response community as SAR imagery can be collected regardless of the time of day or the presence of clouds, two major hindrances to the use of satellite optical imagery. Through a partnership with the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) and the collocated Alaska Satellite Facility (ASF), NASA's SAR Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC), SPoRT has been investigating the use of SAR imagery products to support storm damage surveys conducted by the National Weather Service after any severe weather event. Additionally, products are also being developed and tested for FEMA and the National Guard Bureau. This presentation will describe how SAR data from the Sentinel 1A/B satellites are processed and developed into products. Examples from multiple tornado and hail events will be presented highlighting both the strengths and weaknesses of SAR imagery and how it integrates and compliments more traditional optical imagery collected post-event. Specific case study information from a large hail event in South Dakota and a long track tornado near Clear Lake, Wisconsin will be discussed as well as an overview of the work being done to support FEMA and the National Guard.

Crowdsourcing of weather observations at national meteorological and hydrological services in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Krennert, Thomas; Pistotnik, Georg; Kaltenberger, Rainer; Csekits, Christian

2018-05-01

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) increase their efforts to deliver impact-based weather forecasts and warnings. At the same time, a desired increase in cost-efficiency prompts these services to automatize their weather station networks and to reduce the number of human observers, which leads to a lack of ground truth information about weather phenomena and their impact. A possible alternative is to encourage the general public to submit weather observations, which may include crucial information especially in high-impact situations. We wish to provide an overview of the state and properties of existing collaborations between NMHSs and voluntary weather observers or storm spotters across Europe. For that purpose, we performed a survey among 30 European NMHSs, from which 22 NMHSs returned our questionnaire. This study summarizes the most important findings and evaluates the use of crowdsourced information. 86 % of the surveyed NMHSs utilize information provided by the general public, 50 % have established official collaborations with spotter groups, and 18 % have formalized them. The observations are most commonly used for a real-time improvement of severe weather warnings, their verification, and an establishment of a climatology of severe weather events. The importance of these volunteered weather and impact observations has strongly risen over the past decade. We expect that this trend will continue and that storm spotters will become an essential part in severe weather warning, like they have been for decades in the United States of America. A rising number of incoming reports implies that quality management will become an increasing issue, and we finally discuss an idea how to handle this challenge.

High C-Reactive Protein Predicts Delirium Incidence, Duration, and Feature Severity After Major Noncardiac Surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Vasunilashorn, Sarinnapha M; Dillon, Simon T; Inouye, Sharon K; Ngo, Long H; Fong, Tamara G; Jones, Richard N; Travison, Thomas G; Schmitt, Eva M; Alsop, David C; Freedman, Steven D; Arnold, Steven E; Metzger, Eran D; Libermann, Towia A; Marcantonio, Edward R

2017-08-01

To examine associations between the inflammatory marker C-reactive protein (CRP) measured preoperatively and on postoperative day 2 (POD2) and delirium incidence, duration, and feature severity. Prospective cohort study. Two academic medical centers. Adults aged 70 and older undergoing major noncardiac surgery (N = 560). Plasma CRP was measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Delirium was assessed from Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) interviews and chart review. Delirium duration was measured according to number of hospital days with delirium. Delirium feature severity was defined as the sum of CAM-Severity (CAM-S) scores on all postoperative hospital days. Generalized linear models were used to examine independent associations between CRP (preoperatively and POD2 separately) and delirium incidence, duration, and feature severity; prolonged hospital length of stay (LOS, >5 days); and discharge disposition. Postoperative delirium occurred in 24% of participants, 12% had 2 or more delirium days, and the mean ± standard deviation sum CAM-S was 9.3 ± 11.4. After adjusting for age, sex, surgery type, anesthesia route, medical comorbidities, and postoperative infectious complications, participants with preoperative CRP of 3 mg/L or greater had a risk of delirium that was 1.5 times as great (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.1-2.1) as that of those with CRP less than 3 mg/L, 0.4 more delirium days (P delirium (3.6 CAM-S points higher, P delirium (95% CI = 1.0-2.4) as those in the lowest quartile (≤127.53 mg/L), had 0.2 more delirium days (P delirium (4.5 CAM-S points higher, P delirium incidence, duration, and feature severity. CRP may be useful to identify individuals who are at risk of developing delirium. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

Presenting Critical Space Weather Information to Customers and Stakeholders (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Viereck, R. A.; Singer, H. J.; Murtagh, W. J.; Rutledge, B.

2013-12-01

Space weather involves changes in the near-Earth space environment that impact technological systems such as electric power, radio communication, satellite navigation (GPS), and satellite opeartions. As with terrestrial weather, there are several different kinds of space weather and each presents unique challenges to the impacted technologies and industries. But unlike terrestrial weather, many customers are not fully aware of space weather or how it impacts their systems. This issue is further complicated by the fact that the largest space weather events occur very infrequently with years going by without severe storms. Recent reports have estimated very large potential costs to the economy and to society if a geomagnetic storm were to cause major damage to the electric power transmission system. This issue has come to the attention of emergency managers and federal agencies including the office of the president. However, when considering space weather impacts, it is essential to also consider uncertainties in the frequency of events and the predicted impacts. The unique nature of space weather storms, the specialized technologies that are impacted by them, and the disparate groups and agencies that respond to space weather forecasts and alerts create many challenges to the task of communicating space weather information to the public. Many customers that receive forecasts and alerts are highly technical and knowledgeable about the subtleties of the space environment. Others know very little and require ongoing education and explanation about how a space weather storm will affect their systems. In addition, the current knowledge and understanding of the space environment that goes into forecasting storms is quite immature. It has only been within the last five years that physics-based models of the space environment have played important roles in predictions. Thus, the uncertainties in the forecasts are quite large. There is much that we don't know about space

Colluvial deposits as a possible weathering reservoir in uplifting mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Carretier, Sébastien; Goddéris, Yves; Martinez, Javier; Reich, Martin; Martinod, Pierre

2018-03-01

The role of mountain uplift in the evolution of the global climate over geological times is controversial. At the heart of this debate is the capacity of rapid denudation to drive silicate weathering, which consumes CO2. Here we present the results of a 3-D model that couples erosion and weathering during mountain uplift, in which, for the first time, the weathered material is traced during its stochastic transport from the hillslopes to the mountain outlet. To explore the response of weathering fluxes to progressively cooler and drier climatic conditions, we run model simulations accounting for a decrease in temperature with or without modifications in the rainfall pattern based on a simple orographic model. At this stage, the model does not simulate the deep water circulation, the precipitation of secondary minerals, variations in the pH, below-ground pCO2, and the chemical affinity of the water in contact with minerals. Consequently, the predicted silicate weathering fluxes probably represent a maximum, although the predicted silicate weathering rates are within the range of silicate and total weathering rates estimated from field data. In all cases, the erosion rate increases during mountain uplift, which thins the regolith and produces a hump in the weathering rate evolution. This model thus predicts that the weathering outflux reaches a peak and then falls, consistent with predictions of previous 1-D models. By tracking the pathways of particles, the model can also consider how lateral river erosion drives mass wasting and the temporary storage of colluvial deposits on the valley sides. This reservoir is comprised of fresh material that has a residence time ranging from several years up to several thousand years. During this period, the weathering of colluvium appears to sustain the mountain weathering flux. The relative weathering contribution of colluvium depends on the area covered by regolith on the hillslopes. For mountains sparsely covered by regolith

National Weather Service

Science.gov (United States)

... GIS International Weather Cooperative Observers Storm Spotters Tsunami Facts and Figures National Water Center WEATHER SAFETY NOAA Weather Radio StormReady Heat Lightning Hurricanes Thunderstorms Tornadoes Rip Currents Floods Winter Weather ...

Space Weather Effects in the Earth's Radiation Belts

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, D. N.; Erickson, P. J.; Fennell, J. F.; Foster, J. C.; Jaynes, A. N.; Verronen, P. T.

2018-02-01

The first major scientific discovery of the Space Age was that the Earth is enshrouded in toroids, or belts, of very high-energy magnetically trapped charged particles. Early observations of the radiation environment clearly indicated that the Van Allen belts could be delineated into an inner zone dominated by high-energy protons and an outer zone dominated by high-energy electrons. The energy distribution, spatial extent and particle species makeup of the Van Allen belts has been subsequently explored by several space missions. Recent observations by the NASA dual-spacecraft Van Allen Probes mission have revealed many novel properties of the radiation belts, especially for electrons at highly relativistic and ultra-relativistic kinetic energies. In this review we summarize the space weather impacts of the radiation belts. We demonstrate that many remarkable features of energetic particle changes are driven by strong solar and solar wind forcings. Recent comprehensive data show broadly and in many ways how high energy particles are accelerated, transported, and lost in the magnetosphere due to interplanetary shock wave interactions, coronal mass ejection impacts, and high-speed solar wind streams. We also discuss how radiation belt particles are intimately tied to other parts of the geospace system through atmosphere, ionosphere, and plasmasphere coupling. The new data have in many ways rewritten the textbooks about the radiation belts as a key space weather threat to human technological systems.

Climatic and weather factors affecting fire occurrence and behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Randall P. Benson; John O. Roads; David R. Weise

2009-01-01

Weather and climate have a profound influence on wildland fire ignition potential, fire behavior, and fire severity. Local weather and climate are affected by large-scale patterns of winds over the hemispheres that predispose wildland fuels to fire. The characteristics of wildland fuels, especially the moisture content, ultimately determine fire behavior and the impact...

Broadcast media and the dissemination of weather information

Science.gov (United States)

Byrnes, J.

1973-01-01

Although television is the public's most preferred source of weather information, it fails to provide weather reports to those groups who seek the information early in the day and during the day. The result is that many people most often use radio as a source of information, yet preferring the medium of television. The public actively seeks weather information from both radio and TV stations, usually seeking information on current conditions and short range forecasts. forecasts. Nearly all broadcast stations surveyed were eager to air severe weather bulletins quickly and often. Interest in Nowcasting was high among radio and TV broadcasters, with a significant portion indicating a willingness to pay something for the service. However, interest among TV stations in increasing the number of daily reports was small.

Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Judah; Pfeiffer, Karl; Francis, Jennifer A

2018-03-13

Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather-including both cold spells and heavy snows-became more frequent in the eastern United States.

Assessing Individual Weather Risk-Taking and Its Role in Modeling Likelihood of Hurricane Evacuation

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, A. E.

2017-12-01

This research focuses upon measuring an individual's level of perceived risk of different severe and extreme weather conditions using a new self-report measure, the Weather Risk-Taking Scale (WRTS). For 32 severe and extreme situations in which people could perform an unsafe behavior (e. g., remaining outside with lightning striking close by, driving over roadways covered with water, not evacuating ahead of an approaching hurricane, etc.), people rated: 1.their likelihood of performing the behavior, 2. The perceived risk of performing the behavior, 3. the expected benefits of performing the behavior, and 4. whether the behavior has actually been performed in the past. Initial development research with the measure using 246 undergraduate students examined its psychometric properties and found that it was internally consistent (Cronbach's a ranged from .87 to .93 for the four scales) and that the scales possessed good temporal (test-retest) reliability (r's ranged from .84 to .91). A second regression study involving 86 undergraduate students found that taking weather risks was associated with having taken similar risks in one's past and with the personality trait of sensation-seeking. Being more attentive to the weather and perceiving its risks when it became extreme was associated with lower likelihoods of taking weather risks (overall regression model, R2adj = 0.60). A third study involving 334 people examined the contributions of weather risk perceptions and risk-taking in modeling the self-reported likelihood of complying with a recommended evacuation ahead of a hurricane. Here, higher perceptions of hurricane risks and lower perceived benefits of risk-taking along with fear of severe weather and hurricane personal self-efficacy ratings were all statistically significant contributors to the likelihood of evacuating ahead of a hurricane. Psychological rootedness and attachment to one's home also tend to predict lack of evacuation. This research highlights the

Quantifying statistical uncertainty in the attribution of human influence on severe weather

OpenAIRE

Paciorek, CJ; Stone, DA; Wehner, MF

2018-01-01

© 2018 The Authors Event attribution in the context of climate change seeks to understand the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events, either specific events or classes of events. A common approach to event attribution uses climate model output under factual (real-world) and counterfactual (world that might have been without anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions) scenarios to estimate the probabilities of the event of interest under the two scenarios. Event a...

Value of sonography in establishing severity of liver cirrhosis:correlation of sonographic features with Childclass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Byung Ihn; KIm, Ho Chul; Shin, Yong Moon; Kim, Chu Wan; Lee, Hyo suk; Kim, Chung Yong

1993-01-01

This prospective study was designed to investigate the utility of sonography in establishing severity of liver cirrhosis as compared with Child class in clinical creteria. Seventy-our consecutive patients with liver cirrhosis were examined with sonography. This study included 50 males and 24 females, aged 35 to 72 years (mean ; 51) The number of patients in child A,B, and C group was 30,29,15 respectively. Sonographic features evaluated were hepatic parenchymal echo pattern, presence of nodularity of hepatic surface, degree of hepatic sonic attenuation,degree of obliteration of wall echo of the intrahepatic portal vein, size of the main portal vein, thickness of the gallbladder wall, size of the spleen, and presence of ascites. Each sonographic features was graded from 0 to depending upon the degree of severity, and was correlated with Child class of liver cirrhosis. Hepatic parenchymal echo pattern, presence of nodularity of hepatic surface, thickness of gallbladder wall, and presence of ascites were correlated well with Child class (p 0.05). In conclusion, these results indicate that careful evaluation of sonographic features are helpful in predicting severity of liver cirrhosis

All-Weather Solar Cells: A Rising Photovoltaic Revolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Qunwei

2017-06-16

Solar cells have been considered as one of the foremost solutions to energy and environmental problems because of clean, high efficiency, cost-effective, and inexhaustible features. The historical development and state-of-the-art solar cells mainly focus on elevating photoelectric conversion efficiency upon direct sunlight illumination. It is still a challenging problem to realize persistent high-efficiency power generation in rainy, foggy, haze, and dark-light conditions (night). The physical proof-of-concept for all-weather solar cells opens a door for an upcoming photovoltaic revolution. Our group has been exploring constructive routes to build all-weather solar cells so that these advanced photovoltaic technologies can be an indication for global solar industry in bringing down the cost of energy harvesting. How the all-weather solar cells are built without reducing photo performances and why such architectures can realize electricity outputs with no visible-light are discussed. Potential pathways and opportunities to enrich all-weather solar cell families are envisaged. The aspects discussed here may enable researchers to develop undiscovered abilities and to explore wide applications of advanced photovoltaics. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Features that exacerbate fatigue severity in joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome - hypermobility type.

Science.gov (United States)

Krahe, Anne Maree; Adams, Roger David; Nicholson, Leslie Lorenda

2018-08-01

To assess the prevalence, severity and impact of fatigue on individuals with joint hypermobility syndrome (JHS)/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome - hypermobility type (EDS-HT) and establish potential determinants of fatigue severity in this population. Questionnaires on symptoms and signs related to fatigue, quality of life, mental health, physical activity participation and sleep quality were completed by people with JHS/EDS-HT recruited through two social media sites. Multiple regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of fatigue in this population. Significant fatigue was reported by 79.5% of the 117 participants. Multiple regression analysis identified five predictors of fatigue severity, four being potentially modifiable, accounting for 52.3% of the variance in reported fatigue scores. Predictors of fatigue severity were: the self-perceived extent of joint hypermobility, orthostatic dizziness related to heat and exercise, levels of participation in personal relationships and community, current levels of physical activity and dissatisfaction with the diagnostic process and management options provided for their condition. Fatigue is a significant symptom associated with JHS/EDS-HT. Assessment of individuals with this condition should include measures of fatigue severity to enable targeted management of potentially modifiable factors associated with fatigue severity. Implications for rehabilitation Fatigue is a significant symptom reported by individuals affected by joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome - hypermobility type. Potentially modifiable features that contribute to fatigue severity in this population have been identified. Targeted management of these features may decrease the severity and impact of fatigue in joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome - hypermobility type.

Space weather and power grids: findings and outlook

Science.gov (United States)

Krausmann, Elisabeth; Andersson, Emmelie; Murtagh, William; Mitchison, Neil

2014-05-01

in industry against moderate space weather, the vulnerability of the power grid with respect to Carrington-type events is less conclusive and needs to be assessed. • The assessment of space-weather impact on society needs to consider possible interdependencies between critical infrastructures. These interdependencies are not routinely assessed. • Effective risk communication is required to bridge the gap between science and policy and to convey the significance of scientific results to decision makers. • Emergency-response planning for a severe space-weather event needs to consider the full range of potential impacts on critical infrastructure. • For a severe geomagnetic storm inter-institutional and probably international emergency planning efforts are required as response capabilities of individual countries might be overloaded. • In the USA work is in progress to augment the existing regulatory requirements for power-grid operations by introducing new standards to better meet the challenges posed by space-weather risk.

Multiple Weather Factors Affect Apparent Survival of European Passerine Birds

Science.gov (United States)

Salewski, Volker; Hochachka, Wesley M.; Fiedler, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

Weather affects the demography of animals and thus climate change will cause local changes in demographic rates. In birds numerous studies have correlated demographic factors with weather but few of those examined variation in the impacts of weather in different seasons and, in the case of migrants, in different regions. Using capture-recapture models we correlated weather with apparent survival of seven passerine bird species with different migration strategies to assess the importance of selected facets of weather throughout the year on apparent survival. Contrary to our expectations weather experienced during the breeding season did not affect apparent survival of the target species. However, measures for winter severity were associated with apparent survival of a resident species, two short-distance/partial migrants and a long-distance migrant. Apparent survival of two short distance migrants as well as two long-distance migrants was further correlated with conditions experienced during the non-breeding season in Spain. Conditions in Africa had statistically significant but relatively minor effects on the apparent survival of the two long-distance migrants but also of a presumably short-distance migrant and a short-distance/partial migrant. In general several weather effects independently explained similar amounts of variation in apparent survival for the majority of species and single factors explained only relatively low amounts of temporal variation of apparent survival. Although the directions of the effects on apparent survival mostly met our expectations and there are clear predictions for effects of future climate we caution against simple extrapolations of present conditions to predict future population dynamics. Not only did weather explains limited amounts of variation in apparent survival, but future demographics will likely be affected by changing interspecific interactions, opposing effects of weather in different seasons, and the potential for

Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (SWSSWB) Records primarily created by the United States Army Signal Service from 1819 until the paid and voluntary...

Adverse Weather Evokes Nostalgia.

Science.gov (United States)

van Tilburg, Wijnand A P; Sedikides, Constantine; Wildschut, Tim

2018-03-01

Four studies examined the link between adverse weather and the palliative role of nostalgia. We proposed and tested that (a) adverse weather evokes nostalgia (Hypothesis 1); (b) adverse weather causes distress, which predicts elevated nostalgia (Hypothesis 2); (c) preventing nostalgia exacerbates weather-induced distress (Hypothesis 3); and (d) weather-evoked nostalgia confers psychological benefits (Hypothesis 4). In Study 1, participants listened to recordings of wind, thunder, rain, and neutral sounds. Adverse weather evoked nostalgia. In Study 2, participants kept a 10-day diary recording weather conditions, distress, and nostalgia. We also obtained meteorological data. Adverse weather perceptions were positively correlated with distress, which predicted higher nostalgia. Also, adverse natural weather was associated with corresponding weather perceptions, which predicted elevated nostalgia. (Results were mixed for rain.) In Study 3, preventing nostalgia (via cognitive load) increased weather-evoked distress. In Study 4, weather-evoked nostalgia was positively associated with psychological benefits. The findings pioneer the relevance of nostalgia as source of comfort in adverse weather.

Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project

Science.gov (United States)

Isaac, G. A.; Joe, P. I.; Mailhot, J.; Bailey, M.; Bélair, S.; Boudala, F. S.; Brugman, M.; Campos, E.; Carpenter, R. L.; Crawford, R. W.; Cober, S. G.; Denis, B.; Doyle, C.; Reeves, H. D.; Gultepe, I.; Haiden, T.; Heckman, I.; Huang, L. X.; Milbrandt, J. A.; Mo, R.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Smith, T.; Stewart, R. E.; Wang, D.; Wilson, L. J.

2014-01-01

A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0-6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.

Piloting and Evaluating a Workshop to Teach Georgia Teachers about Weather Science and Safety

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Alan E.; Knox, John A.; Schneider, Pat

2015-01-01

A survey of 691 Georgia teachers suggested that their students generally were not prepared for severe weather. Teachers also were somewhat dissatisfied with the quality of the teaching resources on weather and weather safety. Only 46 (7%) of the teachers were aware of the American Red Cross Masters of Disaster (MoD) weather science and safety…

Central American Flying Weather

Science.gov (United States)

1985-12-01

CEILING; VISIBILITY; WIND, PRECIPITATIDNc’--." HAZE, SMOKE, TEMPORALE ; MOUNTAIN WAVE; MILITARY METEOROLOGY. 4k- / ’A. bstract; Asummary of~ing weather...1 The " Temporale " ....................................1 Mountain Waves ......................I...............1 Severe Thunderstorms...charts. The for any part of Central America lies in having: Tactical Pilota.e Chart series , produced by the Df -.nse Mapping Agency, is * A good, basic

Colluvial deposits as a possible weathering reservoir in uplifting mountains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Carretier

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The role of mountain uplift in the evolution of the global climate over geological times is controversial. At the heart of this debate is the capacity of rapid denudation to drive silicate weathering, which consumes CO2. Here we present the results of a 3-D model that couples erosion and weathering during mountain uplift, in which, for the first time, the weathered material is traced during its stochastic transport from the hillslopes to the mountain outlet. To explore the response of weathering fluxes to progressively cooler and drier climatic conditions, we run model simulations accounting for a decrease in temperature with or without modifications in the rainfall pattern based on a simple orographic model. At this stage, the model does not simulate the deep water circulation, the precipitation of secondary minerals, variations in the pH, below-ground pCO2, and the chemical affinity of the water in contact with minerals. Consequently, the predicted silicate weathering fluxes probably represent a maximum, although the predicted silicate weathering rates are within the range of silicate and total weathering rates estimated from field data. In all cases, the erosion rate increases during mountain uplift, which thins the regolith and produces a hump in the weathering rate evolution. This model thus predicts that the weathering outflux reaches a peak and then falls, consistent with predictions of previous 1-D models. By tracking the pathways of particles, the model can also consider how lateral river erosion drives mass wasting and the temporary storage of colluvial deposits on the valley sides. This reservoir is comprised of fresh material that has a residence time ranging from several years up to several thousand years. During this period, the weathering of colluvium appears to sustain the mountain weathering flux. The relative weathering contribution of colluvium depends on the area covered by regolith on the hillslopes. For mountains

[Perceived pain and weather changes in rheumatic patients].

Science.gov (United States)

Miranda, L Cunha; Parente, M; Silva, C; Clemente-Coelho, P; Santos, H; Cortes, S; Medeiros, D; Ribeiro, J Saraiva; Barcelos, F; Sousa, M; Miguel, C; Figueiredo, R; Mediavilla, M; Simões, E; Silva, M; Patto, J Vaz; Madeira, H; Ferreira, J; Micaelo, M; Leitão, R; Las, V; Faustino, A; Teixeira, A

2007-01-01

Rheumatic patients with chronic pain describe in a vivid way the influence of climate on pain and disease activity. Several studies seem to confirm this association. To evaluate and compare in a population of rheumatic patients the perceived influence of weather changes on pain and disease activity This is a retrospective cross-sectional study. For three weeks an assisted self-reported questionnaire with nine dimensions and a VAS pain scale was performed on consecutive out-patients in our clinic. 955 patients 787 female 168 male mean age 57.9 years with several rheumatologic diagnosis were evaluated. Overall 70 of the patients believed that the weather influenced their disease and 40 believed that the influence was high. Morning stiffness was influenced in 54 high influenced in 34 . Autumn and Winter were the most influential periods as well as humidity 67 and low temperatures 59 . In our study as well as in literature we found that a high percentage of patients 70 perceived that weather conditions influenced their pain and disease. Fibromyalgia patients seemed to be strongly influenced by weather changes. Our study confirms that patients perception on the influence of climate on pain and therefore their disease is an important clinical factor and it should be considered when evaluating rheumatic patients.

Climate change and extreme events in weather

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.

reported that the climate based extreme weather event is increasing throughout the world. One of the major chal- lenges before the scientists is to determine whether the ob- served change in extreme weather events exceeds the vari- ability expected through... was recorded in July 1943 on the hills of Mewar and Merwara. Unprecedent flood in Ajmer and Merwara devasted 50 villages and took a toll of 5000 lives (De et al., 2005). Severe Floods occurred to Godavari and Tungabhadra rivers in the last week of August...

Weather swap as an instrument for weather risk management in wheat production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marković Todor

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A special type of weather derivatives are weather forwards and they exists mostly in the form of weather swaps. Hedging effectiveness in wheat production with and without weather swap was analyzed in this paper using stochastic dominance. The results show that the effect of risk reduction is significant using weather swap, but geographical- basis risk and production-related basis risk are important factor that reduce the utility of weather derivatives.

Identifying Patterns in the Weather of Europe for Source Term Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Klampanos, Iraklis; Pappas, Charalambos; Andronopoulos, Spyros; Davvetas, Athanasios; Ikonomopoulos, Andreas; Karkaletsis, Vangelis

2017-04-01

parameters, using the Java flavour of the Euratom-supported funded RODOS (Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support) system2 for off-site emergency management after nuclear accidents. Once dispersions have been pre-computed, and immediately after a detected release, the currently observed weather can be matched to the derived weather classes. Since each weather class corresponds to a different plume dispersion pattern, the closest classes to an unseen weather sample, say the current weather, are the most likely to lead us to the release origin. In addressing the above problem, we make use of multiple years of weather reanalysis data from NCAR's version3 of ECMWF's ERA-Interim4. To derive useful weather classes, we evaluate several algorithms, ranging from straightforward unsupervised clustering to more complex methods, including relevant neural-network algorithms, on multiple variables. Variables and feature sets, clustering algorithms and evaluation approaches are all dealt with and presented experimentally. The Big Data Europe platform allows for the implementation and execution of the above tasks in the cloud, in a scalable, robust and efficient way.

Weathering and landscape evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Turkington, Alice V.; Phillips, Jonathan D.; Campbell, Sean W.

2005-04-01

In recognition of the fundamental control exerted by weathering on landscape evolution and topographic development, the 35th Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium was convened under the theme of Weathering and Landscape Evolution. The papers and posters presented at the conference imparted the state-of-the-art in weathering geomorphology, tackled the issue of scale linkage in geomorphic studies and offered a vehicle for interdisciplinary communication on research into weathering and landscape evolution. The papers included in this special issue are encapsulated here under the general themes of weathering mantles, weathering and relative dating, weathering and denudation, weathering processes and controls and the 'big picture'.

A coronagraph for operational space weather predication

Science.gov (United States)

Middleton, Kevin F.

2017-09-01

Accurate prediction of the arrival of solar wind phenomena, in particular coronal mass ejections (CMEs), at Earth, and possibly elsewhere in the heliosphere, is becoming increasingly important given our ever-increasing reliance on technology. The potentially severe impact on human technological systems of such phenomena is termed space weather. A coronagraph is arguably the instrument that provides the earliest definitive evidence of CME eruption; from a vantage point on or near the Sun-Earth line, a coronagraph can provide near-definitive identification of an Earth-bound CME. Currently, prediction of CME arrival is critically dependent on ageing science coronagraphs whose design and operation were not optimized for space weather services. We describe the early stages of the conceptual design of SCOPE (the Solar Coronagraph for OPErations), optimized to support operational space weather services.

Effects of Space Weathering on Reflectance Spectra of Ureilites: First Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Goodrich, C. A.; Gillis-Davis, J.; Cloutis, E.; Applin, D.; Takir, D.; Hibbitts, C.; Christoffersen, R.; Fries, M.; Klima, R.; Decker, S.

2018-01-01

Ureilites are differentiated meteorites (ultramafic rocks interpreted to be mantle residues) that contain as much carbon as the most carbon-rich carbonaceous chondrites (CCs). Reflectance spectra of ureilites are similar to those of some CCs. Hence, ureilitic asteroids may accidentally be categorized as primitive because their spectra could resemble those of C-complex asteroids, which are thought to be CC-like. We began spectral studies of progressively laser-weathered ureilites with the goals of predicting UV-VIS-IR spectra of ureilitic asteroids, and identifying features that could distinguish differentiated from primitive dark asteroids. Space weathering has not previously been studied for ureilites, and, based on space weathering studies of CCs and other C-rich materials, it could significantly alter their reflectance spectra.

Biomass converted carbon quantum dots for all-weather solar cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meng, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Yue; Sun, Weiyin; Wang, Min; He, Benlin; Chen, Haiyan; Tang, Qunwei

2017-01-01

Highlights: •CQDs are converted from soybean powders by a hydrothermal method. •The biomass converted CQDs are used for all-weather DSSCs. •The so-called all-weather DSSCs can generate electricity in the daytime and dark. •A dark efficiency as high as 7.97% is determined on the all-weather photovoltaics. •The launched solar cell extend our knowledge of advanced all-weather solar cells. -- Abstract: A great challenge for state-of-the-art photovoltaic devices is to realize electric power generation in all weathers. We constructively demonstrate here the conversion from biomass to carbon quantum dots for all-weather carbon quantum dot solar cells that can generate electricity in the daytime and in the dark. The combination of green-emitting long persistence phosphors with mesoscopic titanium dioxide realizes optical storage by composite photoanode under illumination and excitation to monochromatic green light in the dark. The optimized all-weather solar cell yields maximized dark power conversion efficiency as high as 7.97% along with persistent electricity output for several hours. This work begins a photovoltaic revolution to forward all-weather solar cells as future energy solutions.

Reconstruction of Historical Weather by Assimilating Old Weather Diary Data

Science.gov (United States)

Neluwala, P.; Yoshimura, K.; Toride, K.; Hirano, J.; Ichino, M.; Okazaki, A.

2017-12-01

Climate can control not only human life style but also other living beings. It is important to investigate historical climate to understand the current and future climates. Information about daily weather can give a better understanding of past life on earth. Long-term weather influences crop calendar as well as the development of civilizations. Unfortunately, existing reconstructed daily weather data are limited to 1850s due to the availability of instrumental data. The climate data prior to that are derived from proxy materials (e.g., tree-ring width, ice core isotopes, etc.) which are either in annual or decadal scale. However, there are many historical documents which contain information about weather such as personal diaries. In Japan, around 20 diaries in average during the 16th - 19th centuries have been collected and converted into a digitized form. As such, diary data exist in many other countries. This study aims to reconstruct historical daily weather during the 18th and 19th centuries using personal daily diaries which have analogue weather descriptions such as `cloudy' or `sunny'. A recent study has shown the possibility of assimilating coarse weather data using idealized experiments. We further extend this study by assimilating modern weather descriptions similar to diary data in recent periods. The Global Spectral model (GSM) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used to reconstruct weather with the Local Ensemble Kalman filter (LETKF). Descriptive data are first converted to model variables such as total cloud cover (TCC), solar radiation and precipitation using empirical relationships. Those variables are then assimilated on a daily basis after adding random errors to consider the uncertainty of actual diary data. The assimilation of downward short wave solar radiation using weather descriptions improves RMSE from 64.3 w/m2 to 33.0 w/m2 and correlation coefficient (R) from 0.5 to 0.8 compared with the case without any

The Social and Economic Impacts of Space Weather (US Project)

Science.gov (United States)

Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.; Basoli, D.; Griot, O.

2017-12-01

The National Space Weather Action Plan calls for new research into the social and economic impacts of space weather and for the development of quantitative estimates of potential costs. In response to this call, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and Abt Associates are working together to identify, describe, and quantify the impact of space weather to U.S. interests. This study covers impacts resulting from both moderate and severe space weather events across four technological sectors: Electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) users. It captures the full range of potential impacts, identified from an extensive literature review and from additional conversations with more than 50 sector stakeholders of diverse expertise from engineering to operations to end users. We organize and discuss our findings in terms of five broad but interrelated impact categories including Defensive Investments, Mitigating Actions, Asset Damages, Service Interruptions, and Health Effects. We also present simple, tractable estimates of the potential costs where we focused on quantifying a subset of all identified impacts that are apt to be largest and are also most plausible during moderate and more severe space weather scenarios. We hope that our systematic exploration of the social and economic impacts provides a foundation for the future work that is critical for designing technologies, developing procedures, and implementing policies that can effectively reduce our known and evolving vulnerabilities to this natural hazard.

Monthly Weather Review

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

Cold weather oil spill response training

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solsberg, L.B.; Owens, E.H.

2001-01-01

In April 2000, a three-day oil spill response training program was conducted on Alaska's North Slope. The unique hands-on program was specifically developed for Chevron Corporation's world-wide response team. It featured a combination of classroom and outdoor sessions that helped participants to learn and apply emergency measures in a series of field exercises performed in very cold weather conditions. Temperatures remained below minus 20 degrees C and sometimes reached minus 40 degrees C throughout the training. The classroom instructions introduced participants to the Emergency Prevention Preparedness and Response (EPPR) Working Group's Field Guide for Spill Response in Arctic Waters. This guide provides response strategies specific to the Arctic, including open water, ice and snow conditions. The sessions also reviewed the Alaska Clean Seas Tactics Manual which addresses spill containment and recovery, storage, tracking, burning and disposal. The issues that were emphasized throughout the training program were cold weather safety and survival. During the training sessions, participants were required to set up weather ports and drive snowmobiles and all terrain vehicles. Their mission was to detect oil with infra-red and hand-held devices. They were required to contain the oil by piling snow into snow banks, and by augering, trenching and slotting ice. Oil was removed by trimming operations on solid ice, snow melting, snow blowing, skimming and pumping. In-situ burning was also performed. Other sessions were also conducted develop skills in site characterization and treating oiled shorelines. The successfully conducted field sessions spanned all phases of a cleanup operation in cold weather. 5 refs., 7 figs

Short-Range prediction of a Mediterranean Severe weather event using EnKF: Configuration tests

Science.gov (United States)

Carrio Carrio, Diego Saul; Homar Santaner, Víctor

2014-05-01

The afternoon of 4th October 2007, severe damaging winds and torrential rainfall affected the Island of Mallorca. This storm produced F2-F3 tornadoes in the vicinity of Palma, with one person killed and estimated damages to property exceeding 10 M€. Several studies have analysed the meteorological context in which this episode unfolded, describing the formation of a train of multiple thunderstorms along a warm front and the evolution of a squall line organized from convective activity initiated offshore Murcia during that morning. Couhet et al. (2011) attributed the correct simulation of the convective system and particularly its organization as a squall line to the correct representation of a convergence line at low-levels over the Alboran Sea during the first hours of the day. The numerical prediction of mesoscale phenomena which initiates, organizes and evolves over the sea is an extremely demanding challenge of great importance for coastal regions. In this study, we investigate the skill of a mesoscale ensemble data assimilation system to predict the severe phenomena occurred on 4th October 2007. We use an Ensemble Kalman Filter which assimilates conventional (surface, radiosonde and AMDAR) data using the DART implementation from (NCAR). On the one hand, we analyse the potential of the assimilation cycle to advect critical observational data towards decisive data-void areas over the sea. Furthermore, we assess the sensitivity of the ensemble products to the ensemble size, grid resolution, assimilation period and physics diversity in the mesoscale model. In particular, we focus on the effect of these numerical configurations on the representation of the convective activity and the precipitation field, as valuable predictands of high impact weather. Results show that the 6-h EnKF assimilation period produces initial fields that successfully represent the environment in which initiation occurred and thus the derived numerical predictions render improved

Acne severity grading: determining essential clinical components and features using a Delphi consensus.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Jerry; Wolfe, Barat; Weiss, Jonathan; Stein-Gold, Linda; Bikowski, Joseph; Del Rosso, James; Webster, Guy F; Lucky, Anne; Thiboutot, Diane; Wilkin, Jonathan; Leyden, James; Chren, Mary-Margaret

2012-08-01

There are multiple global scales for acne severity grading but no singular standard. Our objective was to determine the essential clinical components (content items) and features (property-related items) for an acne global grading scale for use in research and clinical practice using an iterative method, the Delphi process. Ten acne experts were invited to participate in a Web-based Delphi survey comprising 3 iterative rounds of questions. In round 1, the experts identified the following clinical components (primary acne lesions, number of lesions, extent, regional involvement, secondary lesions, and patient experiences) and features (clinimetric properties, ease of use, categorization of severity based on photographs or text, and acceptance by all stakeholders). In round 2, consensus for inclusion in the scale was established for primary lesions, number, sites, and extent; as well as clinimetric properties and ease of use. In round 3, consensus for inclusion was further established for categorization and acceptance. Patient experiences were excluded and no consensus was achieved for secondary lesions. The Delphi panel consisted solely of the United States (U.S.)-based acne experts. Using an established method for achieving consensus, experts in acne vulgaris concluded that an ideal acne global grading scale would comprise the essential clinical components of primary acne lesions, their quantity, extent, and facial and extrafacial sites of involvement; with features of clinimetric properties, categorization, efficiency, and acceptance. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Producing Daily and Embedded Hourly Rainfall Data Using a Novel Weather Generator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Pin Tung

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The number of worldwide extreme drought and flood events has risen significantly in recent years. Many studies confer that climate change may cause more intensive and extreme events. Simulating the impact of climate change often requires weather data as inputs to assessment models. Stochastic weather generators have been developed to produce weather data with the same temporal resolution based on the outputs of GCMs. Reservoir simulation normally uses operational rules in daily and hourly time steps for water supply and flood reduction, respectively. Simulating consecutive drought and flood events simultaneously requires a weather generator to produce different temporal resolution data. This work develops a continuous weather generator to generate daily and hourly precipitation data for regular wet days and severe storms, respectively. Daily rainfall data is generated for regular wet days using Exponential distribution or Weibull distribution, while the total rainfall data for severe storms is generated using the Pearson type III or Log Pearson type III distribution. Moreover, hourly rainfall is determined based on generated hyetographs. Simulation results indicate that the proposed continuous weather generator can generate daily and hourly rainfall reasonably. The proposed weather generator is thus highly promising for use in evaluating how climate change impacts reservoir operations that are significantly influenced by more frequent and intensive consecutive drought and flood events.

Automatic recognition of severity level for diagnosis of diabetic retinopathy using deep visual features.

Science.gov (United States)

Abbas, Qaisar; Fondon, Irene; Sarmiento, Auxiliadora; Jiménez, Soledad; Alemany, Pedro

2017-11-01

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is leading cause of blindness among diabetic patients. Recognition of severity level is required by ophthalmologists to early detect and diagnose the DR. However, it is a challenging task for both medical experts and computer-aided diagnosis systems due to requiring extensive domain expert knowledge. In this article, a novel automatic recognition system for the five severity level of diabetic retinopathy (SLDR) is developed without performing any pre- and post-processing steps on retinal fundus images through learning of deep visual features (DVFs). These DVF features are extracted from each image by using color dense in scale-invariant and gradient location-orientation histogram techniques. To learn these DVF features, a semi-supervised multilayer deep-learning algorithm is utilized along with a new compressed layer and fine-tuning steps. This SLDR system was evaluated and compared with state-of-the-art techniques using the measures of sensitivity (SE), specificity (SP) and area under the receiving operating curves (AUC). On 750 fundus images (150 per category), the SE of 92.18%, SP of 94.50% and AUC of 0.924 values were obtained on average. These results demonstrate that the SLDR system is appropriate for early detection of DR and provide an effective treatment for prediction type of diabetes.

Design features which mitigate severe accident challenges in the GE ABWR and SBWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchholz, Carol E.

2004-01-01

A reduction of the requirements for the emergency planning zone (EPZ) is a goal of advanced light water reactors. The technical basis for reducing the EPZ requirements is based on a very low frequency of a severe accident and high confidence that the offsite dose would be low even if a severe accident was to occur. Design features have been included in both the ABWR and SBWR to ensure that both of these goals are achieved. Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) have been performed for both plants. The PRAs indicate a core damage frequency on the order of IE-7 for both plants. The PRAs also show that the containments will not fail even if a severe accident should occur. The potential offsite is extremely low. (author)

Interactive effects of prey and weather on golden eagle reproduction

Science.gov (United States)

Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; McDonald, T.L.

1997-01-01

1. The reproduction of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos was studied in southwestern Idaho for 23 years, and the relationship between eagle reproduction and jackrabbit Lepus californicus abundance, weather factors, and their interactions, was modelled using general linear models. Backward elimination procedures were used to arrive at parsimonious models.2. The number of golden eagle pairs occupying nesting territories each year showed a significant decline through time that was unrelated to either annual rabbit abundance or winter severity. However, eagle hatching dates were significantly related to both winter severity and jackrabbit abundance. Eagles hatched earlier when jackrabbits were abundant, and they hatched later after severe winters.3. Jackrabbit abundance influenced the proportion of pairs that laid eggs, the proportion of pairs that were successful, mean brood size at fledging, and the number of young fledged per pair. Weather interacted with prey to influence eagle reproductive rates.4. Both jackrabbit abundance and winter severity were important in predicting the percentage of eagle pairs that laid eggs. Percentage laying was related positively to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to winter severity.5. The variables most useful in predicting percentage of laying pairs successful were rabbit abundance and the number of extremely hot days during brood-rearing. The number of hot days and rabbit abundance were also significant in a model predicting eagle brood size at fledging. Both success and brood size were positively related to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to the frequency of hot days in spring.6. Eagle reproduction was limited by rabbit abundance during approximately twothirds of the years studied. Weather influenced how severely eagle reproduction declined in those years.7. This study demonstrates that prey and weather can interact to limit a large raptor population's productivity. Smaller raptors could be affected more

Revisiting the extended spring indices using gridded weather data and machine learning

Science.gov (United States)

Mehdipoor, Hamed; Izquierdo-Verdiguier, Emma; Zurita-Milla, Raul

2016-04-01

The extended spring indices or SI-x [1] have been successfully used to predict the timing of spring onset at continental scales. The SI-x models were created by combining lilac and honeysuckle volunteered phenological observations, temperature data (from weather stations) and latitudinal information. More precisely, these models use a linear regression to predict the day of year of first leaf and first bloom for these two indicator species. In this contribution we revisit both the data and the method used to calibrate the SI-x models to check whether the addition of new input data or the use of non-linear regression methods could lead to improments in the model outputs. In particular, we use a recently published dataset [2] of volunteered observations on cloned and common lilac over longer period of time (1980-2014) and we replace the weather station data by 54 features derived from Daymet [3], which provides 1 by 1 km gridded estimates of daily weather parameters (maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, water vapor pressure, solar radiation, day length, snow water equivalent) for North America. These features consist of both daily weather values and their long- and short-term accumulations and elevation. we also replace the original linear regression by a non-linear method. Specifically, we use random forests to both identify the most important features and to predict the day of year of the first leaf of cloned and common lilacs. Preliminary results confirm the importance of the SI-x features (maximum and minimum temperatures and day length). However, our results show that snow water equivalent and water vapor pressure are also necessary to properly model leaf onset. Regarding the predictions, our results indicate that Random Forests yield comparable results to those produced by the SI-x models (in terms of root mean square error -RMSE). For cloned and common lilac, the models predict the day of year of leafing with 16 and 15 days of accuracy respectively

Lanzerotti to Head New AGU Journal on Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Lifland, Jonathan

Louis J. Lanzerotti has been named editor of a new AGU online publication devoted to the emerging field of near-Earth space conditions and their effects on technical systems. Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications, will be the first journal dedicated solely to the subject, and will include peer-reviewed research, as well as news, features, and opinion articles. A quarterly magazine digest will also be published from the online edition and distributed free of charge to space weather professionals. Lanzerotti, a longtime AGU member who was elected an AGU Fellow in 1985, is currently a consulting physicist at Lucent Technologies Bell Laboratories, and a distinguished research professor at the New Jersey Institute of Technology. He also serves on the governing board of the American Institute of Physics. He is author or co-author of more than 500 publications, including many related to space weather and its effects on communications.

Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Auchmann

2012-02-01

Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

Research on weathering and biomarkers in heavy fuel oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Q.; Li, Z.; Yu, Z.

2008-01-01

The fate of oil spilled in the ocean depends on several physicochemical and biological factors such as evaporation, dissolution, microbial degradation and photo-oxidation. These weathering processes decrease the low molecules in spilled oils which reduces the harmful effects of spilled oil to the ocean and biota near the spill. In addition to changing the composition of the oil, some weathering processes are key to identifying the spilled oil. As such, the relationship between the weathering processes and the changes in oil composition must be well understood. This paper used gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GC/MS) to analyze changes of chemical components in heavy fuel oil by weathering in static seawater. The major alkanes of heavy fuel oil include C8 to C33, while the major aromatics include benzene, naphthalene, phenanthrene and dibenzothiophene. After 24 weeks of weathering in seawater, the alkanes from n-C8 to n-C15 evaporated in order of increasing carbon number. The susceptibility of n-alkanes was correlated with carbon numbers. The aromatics evaporated in order of increasing carbon and ring number as weathering time increased. 8 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs

Weather Support for the 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Sailing Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Ma

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The Beijing 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Sailing Competitions (referred to as OPSC hereafter were held at Qingdao during August 9–23 and September 7–13 2008, respectively. The Qingdao Meteorological Bureau was the official provider of weather support for the OPSC. Three-dimensional real-time information with high spatial-temporal resolution was obtained by the comprehensive observation system during the OPSC, which included weather radars, wind profile radars, buoys, automated weather stations, and other conventional observations. The refined forecasting system based on MM5, WRF, and statistical modules provided point-specific hourly wind forecasts for the five venues, and the severe weather monitoring and forecasting system was used in short-term forecasts and nowcasts for rainstorms, gales, and hailstones. Moreover, latest forecasting products, warnings, and weather information were communicated conveniently and timely through a synthetic, speedy, and digitalized network system to different customers. Daily weather information briefings, notice boards, websites, and community short messages were the main approaches for regatta organizers, athletes, and coaches to receive weather service products at 8:00 PM of each day and whenever new updates were available. During the period of OPSC, almost one hundred people were involved in the weather service with innovative service concept, and the weather support was found to be successful and helpful to the OPSC.

Pallid bands in feathers and associated stable isotope signatures reveal effects of severe weather stressors on fledgling sparrows.

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Jeremy D; Kelly, Jeffrey F; Bridge, Eli S; Engel, Michael H; Reinking, Dan L; Boyle, W Alice

2015-01-01

= - 2.03; p = 0.042) and, in as much, suggested widespread nest losses during the storm. Severe weather events may represent major stressors to ground-nesting birds, especially for recent fledglings. We call for others to exploit opportunities to study the effects of severe weather when these rare but devastating stressors impact established field research sites.

Pallid bands in feathers and associated stable isotope signatures reveal effects of severe weather stressors on fledgling sparrows

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeremy D. Ross

2015-03-01

within our sample relative to expectations from past cohorts (z = − 2.03; p = 0.042 and, in as much, suggested widespread nest losses during the storm. Severe weather events may represent major stressors to ground-nesting birds, especially for recent fledglings. We call for others to exploit opportunities to study the effects of severe weather when these rare but devastating stressors impact established field research sites.

Next generation of weather generators on web service framework

Science.gov (United States)

Chinnachodteeranun, R.; Hung, N. D.; Honda, K.; Ines, A. V. M.

2016-12-01

Weather generator is a statistical model that synthesizes possible realization of long-term historical weather in future. It generates several tens to hundreds of realizations stochastically based on statistical analysis. Realization is essential information as a crop modeling's input for simulating crop growth and yield. Moreover, they can be contributed to analyzing uncertainty of weather to crop development stage and to decision support system on e.g. water management and fertilizer management. Performing crop modeling requires multidisciplinary skills which limit the usage of weather generator only in a research group who developed it as well as a barrier for newcomers. To improve the procedures of performing weather generators as well as the methodology to acquire the realization in a standard way, we implemented a framework for providing weather generators as web services, which support service interoperability. Legacy weather generator programs were wrapped in the web service framework. The service interfaces were implemented based on an international standard that was Sensor Observation Service (SOS) defined by Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). Clients can request realizations generated by the model through SOS Web service. Hierarchical data preparation processes required for weather generator are also implemented as web services and seamlessly wired. Analysts and applications can invoke services over a network easily. The services facilitate the development of agricultural applications and also reduce the workload of analysts on iterative data preparation and handle legacy weather generator program. This architectural design and implementation can be a prototype for constructing further services on top of interoperable sensor network system. This framework opens an opportunity for other sectors such as application developers and scientists in other fields to utilize weather generators.

Cold-Weather Sports

Science.gov (United States)

... Videos for Educators Search English Español Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth / For Teens / Cold-Weather Sports What's in this article? What to Do? Classes ... weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports can help you burn calories, increase your cardiovascular ...

Clinical features and treatment of organ failure in severe acute pancreatitis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CUI Lijian

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Organ failure is an important factor causing death in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP. In recent years, thanks to the further study of pathophysiology of SAP and the continuous accumulation of experience and technology, substantial progress has been made in the diagnosis and treatment of SAP complicated by organ failure. The clinical features of SAP complicated by organ failure and the measures to be strengthened in the treatment of SAP are summarized. Currently, it is thought that organ failure tends to appear once SAP occurs, so timely, standardized treatment can shorten the course of disease and significantly reduce mortality.

Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Hosek

2011-02-01

Full Text Available The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event.

The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages.

Coastal Frontogenesis and Associated Severe Weather on 13 March 1986 (GALE IOP 13)

Science.gov (United States)

1989-01-01

facilities used in this research are described as follows: a) Sounding operations The GALE sounding operations were designed to provide three-dimensional...airplanes were developed for a variety of weather scenarios. These tracks were designed to provide, but were not limited to, in situ measurements of...NU PA NJ Figur 2.. TpgahMfIh otesen ntdSae D ikea .,18) 32 3. CASE STUDY 3.1 Synoptic Overview On 12 March 1986 a back-door cold front (Carr, 1951

SUVI Thematic Maps: A new tool for space weather forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, J. M.; Seaton, D. B.; Darnel, J.

2017-12-01

The new Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) instruments aboard NOAA's GOES-R series satellites collect continuous, high-quality imagery of the Sun in six wavelengths. SUVI imagers produce at least one image every 10 seconds, or 8,640 images per day, considerably more data than observers can digest in real time. Over the projected 20-year lifetime of the four GOES-R series spacecraft, SUVI will provide critical imagery for space weather forecasters and produce an extensive but unwieldy archive. In order to condense the database into a dynamic and searchable form we have developed solar thematic maps, maps of the Sun with key features, such as coronal holes, flares, bright regions, quiet corona, and filaments, identified. Thematic maps will be used in NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center to improve forecaster response time to solar events and generate several derivative products. Likewise, scientists use thematic maps to find observations of interest more easily. Using an expert-trained, naive Bayesian classifier to label each pixel, we create thematic maps in real-time. We created software to collect expert classifications of solar features based on SUVI images. Using this software, we compiled a database of expert classifications, from which we could characterize the distribution of pixels associated with each theme. Given new images, the classifier assigns each pixel the most appropriate label according to the trained distribution. Here we describe the software to collect expert training and the successes and limitations of the classifier. The algorithm excellently identifies coronal holes but fails to consistently detect filaments and prominences. We compare the Bayesian classifier to an artificial neural network, one of our attempts to overcome the aforementioned limitations. These results are very promising and encourage future research into an ensemble classification approach.

Space Weather Studies at Istanbul Technical University

Science.gov (United States)

Kaymaz, Zerefsan

2016-07-01

This presentation will introduce the Upper Atmosphere and Space Weather Laboratory of Istanbul Technical University (ITU). It has been established to support the educational needs of the Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 2011 to conduct scientific research in Space Weather, Space Environment, Space Environment-Spacecraft Interactions, Space instrumentation and Upper Atmospheric studies. Currently the laboratory has some essential infrastructure and the most instrumentation for ionospheric observations and ground induced currents from the magnetosphere. The laboratory has two subunits: SWIFT dealing with Space Weather Instrumentation and Forecasting unit and SWDPA dealing with Space Weather Data Processing and Analysis. The research area covers wide range of upper atmospheric and space science studies from ionosphere, ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling, magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms, distant magnetotail, magnetopause and bow shock studies, as well as solar and solar wind disturbances and their interaction with the Earth's space environment. We also study the spacecraft environment interaction and novel plasma instrument design. Several scientific projects have been carried out in the laboratory. Operational objectives of our laboratory will be carried out with the collaboration of NASA's Space Weather Laboratory and the facilities are in the process of integration to their prediction services. Educational and research objectives, as well as the examples from the research carried out in our laboratory will be demonstrated in this presentation.

Synoptic-scale fire weather conditions in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Hayasaka, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Bieniek, Peter A.

2016-09-01

Recent concurrent widespread fires in Alaska are evaluated to assess their associated synoptic-scale weather conditions. Several periods of high fire activity from 2003 to 2015 were identified using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) hotspot data by considering the number of daily hotspots and their continuity. Fire weather conditions during the top six periods of high fire activity in the fire years of 2004, 2005, 2009, and 2015 were analyzed using upper level (500 hPa) and near surface level (1000 hPa) atmospheric reanalysis data. The top four fire-periods occurred under similar unique high-pressure fire weather conditions related to Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Following the ignition of wildfires, fire weather conditions related to RWB events typically result in two hotspot peaks occurring before and after high-pressure systems move from south to north across Alaska. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska resulted in southwesterly wind during the first hotspot peak. After the high-pressure system moved north under RWB conditions, the Beaufort Sea High developed and resulted in relatively strong easterly wind in Interior Alaska and a second (largest) hotspot peak during each fire period. Low-pressure-related fire weather conditions occurring under cyclogenesis in the Arctic also resulted in high fire activity under southwesterly wind with a single large hot-spot peak.

The importance of non-carbonate mineral weathering as a soil formation mechanism within a karst weathering profile in the SPECTRA Critical Zone Observatory, Guizhou Province, China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Oliver W.Moore; Heather L.Buss; Sophie M.Green; Man Liu; Zhaoliang Song

2017-01-01

Soil degradation,including rocky desertification,of the karst regions in China is severe.Karst landscapes are especially sensitive to soil degradation as carbonate rocks are nutrient-poor and easily eroded.Understanding the balance between soil formation and soil erosion is critical for long-term soil sustainability,yet little is known about the initial soil forming processes on karst terrain.Herein we examine the initial weathering processes of several types of carbonate bedrock containing varying amounts of non-carbonate minerals in the SPECTRA Critical Zone Observatory,Guizhou Province,Southwest China.We compared the weathering mechanisms of the bedrock to the mass transfer of mineral nutrients in a soil profile developed on these rocks and found that soil formation and nutrient contents are strongly dependent upon the weathering of interbedded layers of more silicate-rich bedrock (marls).Atmospheric inputs from dust were also detected.

A two year (2008-2009) analysis of severe convective storms in the Mediterranean basin as observed by satellite imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Gozzini, B.; Melani, S.; Pasi, F.; Ortolani, A.

2010-09-01

weather reports. The spatial and seasonal variability of storm occurrence have been also analysed, as well as the most favourable synoptic conditions for their formation. The analysis shows the existence of preferential areas of genesis of these extreme events, mainly located in the central Mediterranean (i.e., Ionic and Tyrrhenian seas), where the storms develop and grow preferentially in fall. The synoptic features, identified as precursors of severe convective events genesis, show how the totality of the identified cases occur in mid-troposphere (500 hPa) troughs or cut-off circulation within southerly flow, with values of deep level shear of at least 15 m s-1 and high θe (850 hPa) values. Among all the detected cases of severe convection, two selected cases of enhanced-V features are presented in detail, either for the different synoptic environments in which they are embedded, and for being long-lived or severe in terms of heavy rainfall and damages they produced at the ground. In a long-term perspective, this preliminary study aims to make a climatological database of severe weather events occurring in the Mediterranean sea which may critically impact on the Italian peninsula and potentially affect population, in order to develop an objective procedure which can support regional meteorological services in forecasting extreme events, their development and impact, for taking proper early decisions.

Automatic Classification of Offshore Wind Regimes With Weather Radar Observations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trombe, Pierre-Julien; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

2014-01-01

Weather radar observations are called to play an important role in offshore wind energy. In particular, they can enable the monitoring of weather conditions in the vicinity of large-scale offshore wind farms and thereby notify the arrival of precipitation systems associated with severe wind...... and amplitude) using reflectivity observations from a single weather radar system. A categorical sequence of most likely wind regimes is estimated from a wind speed time series by combining a Markov-Switching model and a global decoding technique, the Viterbi algorithm. In parallel, attributes of precipitation...... systems are extracted from weather radar images. These attributes describe the global intensity, spatial continuity and motion of precipitation echoes on the images. Finally, a CART classification tree is used to find the broad relationships between precipitation attributes and wind regimes...

Atlas of the global distribution of atmospheric heating during the global weather experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Schaack, Todd K.; Johnson, Donald R.

1991-01-01

Global distributions of atmospheric heating for the annual cycle of the Global Weather Experiment are estimated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Level 3b data set. Distributions of monthly, seasonally, and annually averaged heating are presented for isentropic and isobaric layers within the troposphere and for the troposphere as a whole. The distributions depict a large-scale structure of atmospheric heating that appears spatially and temporally consistent with known features of the global circulation and the seasonal evolution.

NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

2012-01-01

The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

Weathering and weathering rates of natural stone

Science.gov (United States)

Winkler, Erhard M.

1987-06-01

Physical and chemical weathering were studied as separate processes in the past. Recent research, however, shows that most processes are physicochemical in nature. The rates at which calcite and silica weather by dissolution are dependent on the regional and local climatic environment. The weathering of silicate rocks leaves discolored margins and rinds, a function of the rocks' permeability and of the climatic parameters. Salt action, the greatest disruptive factor, is complex and not yet fully understood in all its phases, but some of the causes of disruption are crystallization pressure, hydration pressure, and hygroscopic attraction of excess moisture. The decay of marble is complex, an interaction between disolution, crack-corrosion, and expansion-contraction cycies triggered by the release of residual stresses. Thin spalls of granites commonly found near the street level of buildings are generally caused by a combination of stress relief and salt action. To study and determine weathering rates of a variety of commercial stones, the National Bureau of Standards erected a Stone Exposure Test Wall in 1948. Of the many types of stone represented, only a few fossiliferous limestones permit a valid measurement of surface reduction in a polluted urban environment.

Geochemical behavior under tropical weathering of the Barama-Mazaruni greenstone belt at Omai gold mine, Guiana Shield

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Voicu, G. [Universite du Quebec a Montreal (Canada). Dept. des Sciences de la Terre et de l' Atmosphere; Omai Gold Mines, Georgetown (Guyana); Bardoux, M. [Universite du Quebec a Montreal (Canada). Dept. des Sciences de la Terre et de l' Atmosphere

2002-07-01

Mineralogical, petrographical, and geochemical studies of the weathering profile have been carried out at Omai Au mine, Guyana. The area is underlain by felsic to mafic volcanic and sedimentary rocks of the Barama-Mazaruni Supergroup, part of the Paleoproterozoic greenstone belts of the Guiana Shield. Tropical rainy climate has favoured extensive lateritization processes and formation of a deeply weathered regolith. The top of the weathering profile consists of lateritic gravel or is masked by the Pleistocene continental-deltaic Berbice Formation. Mineralogical composition of regolith consists mainly of kaolinite, goethite and quark, and subordinately sericite, feldspar, hematite, pyrite, smectite, heavy minerals, and uncommon mineral phases (nacrite, ephesite, corrensite, guyanaite). A specific feature of the weathering profile at Omai is the preservation of fresh hydrothermal pyrite in the saprolith horizon. Chemical changes during the weathering processes depend on various physicochemical and structural parameters. Consequently, the depth should not be the principal criterion for comparison purposes of the geochemical behavior within the weathering profile, but rather an index that measures the degree of supergene alteration that has affected each analyzed sample, independently of the depth of sampling. Thus, the mineralogical index of alteration (MIA) can provide more accurate information about the behavior of major and trace elements in regolith as opposed to unweathered bedrock. It can also aid in establishing a quantitative relationship between intensity of weathering and mobility (leaching or accumulation) of each element in each analyzed sample. At Omai, some major and trace elements that are commonly considered as immobile (ex: TiO{sub 2}, Zr, etc.) during weathering could become mobile in several rock types and cannot be used to calculate the mass and volume balance. In addition, due to higher ''immobile element'' ratios, the

Geomorphology's role in the study of weathering of cultural stone

Science.gov (United States)

Pope, Gregory A.; Meierding, Thomas C.; Paradise, Thomas R.

2002-10-01

Great monumental places—Petra, Giza, Angkor, Stonehenge, Tikal, Macchu Picchu, Rapa Nui, to name a few—are links to our cultural past. They evoke a sense of wonderment for their aesthetic fascination if not for their seeming permanence over both cultural and physical landscapes. However, as with natural landforms, human constructs are subject to weathering and erosion. Indeed, many of our cultural resources suffer from serious deterioration, some natural, some enhanced by human impact. Groups from the United Nations to local civic and tourism assemblies are deeply interested in maintaining and preserving such cultural resources, from simple rock art to great temples. Geomorphologists trained in interacting systems, process and response to thresholds, rates of change over time, and spatial variation of weathering processes and effects are able to offer insight into how deterioration occurs and what can be done to ameliorate the impact. Review of recent literature and case studies presented here demonstrate methodological and theoretical advances that have resulted from the study of cultural stone weathering. Because the stone was carved at a known date to a "baseline" or zero-datum level, some of the simplest methods (e.g., assessing surface weathering features or measuring surface recession in the field) provide useful data on weathering rates and processes. Such data are difficult or impossible to obtain in "natural" settings. Cultural stone weathering studies demonstrate the importance of biotic and saline weathering agents and the significance of weathering factors such as exposure (microclimate) and human impact. More sophisticated methods confirm these observations, but also reveal discrepancies between field and laboratory studies. This brings up two important caveats for conservators and geomorphologists. For the conservator, are laboratory and natural setting studies really analogous and useful for assessing stone damage? For the geomorphologist, does

Weatherization Works: Weatherization Assistance Program Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The United States demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Severe hyperthyroidism: aetiology, clinical features and treatment outcome.

Science.gov (United States)

Iglesias, P; Dévora, O; García, J; Tajada, P; García-Arévalo, C; Díez, J J

2010-04-01

Severe hyperthyroidism (SH) is a serious medical disorder that can compromise life. There have not been systematic studies in which SH has been evaluated in detail. Here, our aims were: (1) to analyse both clinical and analytical features and outcome in patients with SH and (2) to compare these data with those found in more usual forms of hyperthyroidism. Patients and methods All patients diagnosed of SH (free thyroxine, FT4 > 100 pmol/l, NR: 11-23) seen in our endocrinology clinic in the last 15 years were studied and compared with a sample of patients with mild (mH; FT4, 23-50 pmol/l) and moderate (MH; FT4, 51-100 pmol/l) hyperthyroidism. Aetiology, clinical analytical and imaging data at diagnosis, therapeutic response and outcome were registered. Results A total of 107 patients with overt hyperthyroidism (81 females, mean age +/- SD 46.9 +/- 16.1 years) were evaluated. We studied a historic group with SH (n = 21; 14 females, 40.9 +/- 17.2 years) and, as a comparator group, we analyszed the data of 86 hyperthyroid patients (67 females, 48.4 +/- 15.5.6 years, NS) comparable in age and gender. The comparator group was classified in MH (n = 37, 26 females, 47.2 +/- 16.6 years) and mH (n = 49, 41 females, 49.4 +/- 14.8 years). In comparison with mH group, SH patients were significantly (P hyperthyroidism. FT4 was the only independent predictor of cure [OR 0.98 (CI 95%, 0.97-0.99), P hyperthyroidism is usually de novo and is accompanied by more clinical signs, symptoms, and analytical derangements, as well as higher titres of TRAb at diagnosis than milder forms of hyperthyroidism. The present data are not able to show differences in treatment modality, time to achieve cure, and remission rate among patients with mild, moderate and severe hyperthyroidism.

F-radiographic study of uranium distribution in iron hydroxides from crusts of weathering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhmodik, S.M.; Mironov, A.G.; Nemirovskaya, N.A.

1980-01-01

Presented are the results of study of uranium concentrations and peculiarities of its distribution in iron hydroxides from crusts of weathering of aluminium silicate and carbonate rocks. The age of one crusts of weathering is Quaternary, of others - Tertiary. The effect of climatic conditions, composition of source rocks, hydrochemical zoning of the crust of weathering on the uranium fixation by iron hydroxides has been studied. Gamma-spectroscopy, luminescence and autoradiography methods have been used. The mechanism of formation of increased uranium concentrations in iron hydroxides is considered. A conclusion is made that increased uranium concentrations in iron hydroxides may appear in the process of weathering both of aluminium-silicate and carbonate-containing rocks as a result of uranium sorption by fine dispersed iron hydrates. The use of iron hydroxides with increased (anomalous) uranium concentrations as a direct search feature without additional investigations can lead to wrong conclusions

Space Weather opportunities from the Swarm mission including near real time applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stolle, Claudia; Floberghagen, Rune; Luehr, Hermann

2013-01-01

Sophisticated space weather monitoring aims at nowcasting and predicting solar-terrestrial interactions because their effects on the ionosphere and upper atmosphere may seriously impact advanced technology. Operating alert infrastructures rely heavily on ground-based measurements and satellite...... these products in timely manner will add significant value in monitoring present space weather and helping to predict the evolution of several magnetic and ionospheric events. Swarm will be a demonstrator mission for the valuable application of LEO satellite observations for space weather monitoring tools....

Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

Severe myoclonic epilepsy of infancy (Dravet syndrome: Clinical and genetic features of nine Turkish patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meral Özmen

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Mutations of the a-1 subunit sodium channel gene (SCN1A cause severe myoclonic epilepsy of infancy (SMEI. To date, over 300 mutations related to SMEI have been described. In the present study, we report new SCN1A mutations and the clinical features of SMEI cases. Materials and Methods: We studied the clinical and genetic features of nine patients diagnosed with SMEI at the Pediatric Neurology Department of Istanbul Medical Faculty. Results: Five patients had nonsense mutations, two had missense mutations, one had a splice site mutation and one had a deletion mutation of the SCN1A gene. Mutations at c.3705+5G splice site, p.trip153X nonsense mutation and deletion at c.2416_2946 have not been previously described. The seizures started following whole cell pertussis vaccination in all patients. The seizures ceased in one patient and continued in the other eight patients. Developmental regression was severe in three patients, with frequent status epilepticus. The type of mutation was not predictive for the severity of the disease. Two of the three patients with severe regression had nonsense and missense mutations. Conclusions : Dravet syndrome can be result of several different types of mutation in SCN1A gene. Onset of the seizures after pertussis vaccination is an important clue for the diagnosis and neuro- developmental delay should be expected in all patients.

Games and Simulations for Climate, Weather and Earth Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, R. M.; Clark, S.

2015-12-01

We will demonstrate several interactive, computer-based simulations, games, and other interactive multimedia. These resources were developed for weather, climate, atmospheric science, and related Earth system science education. The materials were created by the UCAR Center for Science Education. These materials have been disseminated via our web site (SciEd.ucar.edu), webinars, online courses, teacher workshops, and large touchscreen displays in weather and Sun-Earth connections exhibits in NCAR's Mesa Lab facility in Boulder, Colorado. Our group has also assembled a web-based list of similar resources, especially simulations and games, from other sources that touch upon weather, climate, and atmospheric science topics. We'll briefly demonstrate this directory.

Recent Progress of Solar Weather Forecasting at Naoc

Science.gov (United States)

He, Han; Wang, Huaning; Du, Zhanle; Zhang, Liyun; Huang, Xin; Yan, Yan; Fan, Yuliang; Zhu, Xiaoshuai; Guo, Xiaobo; Dai, Xinghua

The history of solar weather forecasting services at National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC) can be traced back to 1960s. Nowadays, NAOC is the headquarters of the Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China), which is one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). NAOC is responsible for exchanging data, information and space weather forecasts of RWC-China with other RWCs. The solar weather forecasting services at NAOC cover short-term prediction (within two or three days), medium-term prediction (within several weeks), and long-term prediction (in time scale of solar cycle) of solar activities. Most efforts of the short-term prediction research are concentrated on the solar eruptive phenomena, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar proton events, which are the key driving sources of strong space weather disturbances. Based on the high quality observation data of the latest space-based and ground-based solar telescopes and with the help of artificial intelligence techniques, new numerical models with quantitative analyses and physical consideration are being developed for the predictions of solar eruptive events. The 3-D computer simulation technology is being introduced for the operational solar weather service platform to visualize the monitoring of solar activities, the running of the prediction models, as well as the presenting of the forecasting results. A new generation operational solar weather monitoring and forecasting system is expected to be constructed in the near future at NAOC.

The NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NASA STORM) Project

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Lang, Timothy J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Bailey, Jeffrey; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2016-01-01

The NASA Severe Storm Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling(NASA STORM) project enhanced NASA’s severe weather research capabilities, building upon existing Earth Science expertise at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During this project, MSFC extended NASA’s ground-based lightning detection capacity to include a readily deployable lightning mapping array (LMA). NASA STORM also enabled NASA’s Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) to add convection allowing ensemble modeling to its portfolio of regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities. As a part of NASA STORM, MSFC developed new open-source capabilities for analyzing and displaying weather radar observations integrated from both research and operational networks. These accomplishments enabled by NASA STORM are a step towards enhancing NASA’s capabilities for studying severe weather and positions them for any future NASA related severe storm field campaigns.

Weathering of oils at sea: model/field data comparisons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daling, Per S.; Stroem, Tove

1999-01-01

The SINTEF Oil Weathering Model (OWM) has been extensively tested with results from full-scale field trials with experimental oil slicks in the Norwegian NOFO Sea trials in 1994 and 1995 and the AEA 1997 trials in UK. The comparisons between oil weathering values predicted by the model and ground-truth obtained from the field trials are presented and discussed. Good laboratory weathering data of the specific oil as input to the model is essential for obtaining reliable weathering predictions. Predications provided by the SINTEF-OWM enable oil spill personnel to estimate the most appropriate 'window of opportunity' for use of chemical dispersants under various spill situations. Pre-spill scenario analysis with the SINTEF Oil Spill Contingency and Response (OSCAR) model system, in which the SINTEF-OWM is one of several components, has become an important part of contingency plans as well as contingency training of oil spill personnel at refineries, oil terminals and offshore installations in Norway. (Author)

An Examination of the Space Weathering Patina of Lunar Rock 76015

Science.gov (United States)

Noble, S.; Chrisoffersen, R.; Rahman, Z.

2011-01-01

Space weathering discussions have generally centered around soils but exposed rocks will also incur the effects of weathering. Rocks have much longer surface lifetimes than an individual soil grain and thus record a longer history of exposure. By studying the weathering products which have built up on a rock surface, we can gain a deeper perspective on the weathering process and better assess the relative importance of various weathering components. The weathered coating, or patina, of the lunar rock 76015 has been previously studied under SEM and also by TEM using ultramicrotome sample preparation methods. However, to really understand the products involved in creating these coatings, it is helpful to examine the patina in cross section, something which is now possible though the use of Focused Ion Beam (FIB) sample prep techniques, which allows us to preserve intact the delicate stratigraphy of the patina coating and provides a unique cross-sectional view of the space weathering process. Several samples have been prepared from the rock and the coatings are found to be quite variable in thickness and composition from one sample to the next.

Topographic imprint on chemical weathering in deeply weathered soil-mantled landscapes (southern Brazil)

Science.gov (United States)

Vanacker, Veerle; Schoonejans, Jerome; Ameijeiras-Marino, Yolanda; Opfergelt, Sophie; Minella, Jean

2017-04-01

The regolith mantle is defined as the thin layer of unconsolidated material overlaying bedrock that contributes to shape the Earth's surface. The development of the regolith mantle in a landscape is the result of in-situ weathering, atmospheric input and downhill transport of weathering products. Bedrock weathering - the physical and chemical transformations of rock to soil - contributes to the vertical development of the regolith layer through downward propagation of the weathering front. Lateral transport of soil particles, aggregates and solutes by diffusive and concentrated particle and solute fluxes result in lateral redistribution of weathering products over the hillslope. In this study, we aim to expand the empirical basis on long-term soil evolution at the landscape scale through a detailed study of soil weathering in subtropical soils. Spatial variability in chemical mass fluxes and weathering intensity were studied along two toposequences with similar climate, lithology and vegetation but different slope morphology. This allowed us to isolate the topographic imprint on chemical weathering and soil development. The toposequences have convexo-concave slope morphology, and eight regolith profiles were analysed involving the flat upslope, steep midslope and flat toeslope part. Our data show a clear topographic imprint on soil development. Along hillslope, the chemical weathering intensity of the regolith profiles increases with distance from the crest. In contrast to the upslope positions, the soils in the basal concavities develop on in-situ and transported regolith. While the chemical weathering extent on the slope convexities (the upslope profiles) is similar for the steep and gentle toposequence, there is a clear difference in the rate of increase of the chemical weathering extent with distance from the crest. The increase of chemical weathering extent along hillslope is highest for the steep toposequence, suggesting that topography enhances soil particle

Vodcasting Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Collins Petersen, Carolyn; Erickson, P. J.; Needles, M.

2009-01-01

The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of vodcasts (video podcasts) produced by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, MA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, MA). This paper discusses the production and distribution of the series via Webcast, Youtube, and other avenues. It also presents preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness and outreach of the project through feedback from both formal and information education venues. The vodcast series is linked to the NASA Living With a Star Targeted Research and Technology project award "Multi-Instrument Investigation of Inner-Magnetospheric/Ionosphere Disturbances.” It is being carried out by Principal Investigator Dr. John Foster, under the auspices of NASA Grant # NNX06AB86G. The research involves using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) observations to study the location, extent, and duration of perturbations within stormtime ionospheric electric fields at mid- to low latitudes. It combines ground-based global positioning system (GPS) TEC data, incoherent scatter radar measurements of the mid-latitude ionospheric state, and DMSP satellite observations to characterize conditions which lead to severe low-latitude ionospheric perturbations. Each vodcast episode covers a certain aspect of space weather and the research program.

Benefits Analysis of Multi-Center Dynamic Weather Routes

Science.gov (United States)

Sheth, Kapil; McNally, David; Morando, Alexander; Clymer, Alexis; Lock, Jennifer; Petersen, Julien

2014-01-01

Dynamic weather routes are flight plan corrections that can provide airborne flights more than user-specified minutes of flying-time savings, compared to their current flight plan. These routes are computed from the aircraft's current location to a flight plan fix downstream (within a predefined limit region), while avoiding forecasted convective weather regions. The Dynamic Weather Routes automation has been continuously running with live air traffic data for a field evaluation at the American Airlines Integrated Operations Center in Fort Worth, TX since July 31, 2012, where flights within the Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center are evaluated for time savings. This paper extends the methodology to all Centers in United States and presents benefits analysis of Dynamic Weather Routes automation, if it was implemented in multiple airspace Centers individually and concurrently. The current computation of dynamic weather routes requires a limit rectangle so that a downstream capture fix can be selected, preventing very large route changes spanning several Centers. In this paper, first, a method of computing a limit polygon (as opposed to a rectangle used for Fort Worth Center) is described for each of the 20 Centers in the National Airspace System. The Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool, a nationwide simulation and analysis tool, is used for this purpose. After a comparison of results with the Center-based Dynamic Weather Routes automation in Fort Worth Center, results are presented for 11 Centers in the contiguous United States. These Centers are generally most impacted by convective weather. A breakdown of individual Center and airline savings is presented and the results indicate an overall average savings of about 10 minutes of flying time are obtained per flight.

Realistic natural atmospheric phenomena and weather effects for interactive virtual environments

Science.gov (United States)

McLoughlin, Leigh

Clouds and the weather are important aspects of any natural outdoor scene, but existing dynamic techniques within computer graphics only offer the simplest of cloud representations. The problem that this work looks to address is how to provide a means of simulating clouds and weather features such as precipitation, that are suitable for virtual environments. Techniques for cloud simulation are available within the area of meteorology, but numerical weather prediction systems are computationally expensive, give more numerical accuracy than we require for graphics and are restricted to the laws of physics. Within computer graphics, we often need to direct and adjust physical features or to bend reality to meet artistic goals, which is a key difference between the subjects of computer graphics and physical science. Pure physically-based simulations, however, evolve their solutions according to pre-set rules and are notoriously difficult to control. The challenge then is for the solution to be computationally lightweight and able to be directed in some measure while at the same time producing believable results. This work presents a lightweight physically-based cloud simulation scheme that simulates the dynamic properties of cloud formation and weather effects. The system simulates water vapour, cloud water, cloud ice, rain, snow and hail. The water model incorporates control parameters and the cloud model uses an arbitrary vertical temperature profile, with a tool described to allow the user to define this. The result of this work is that clouds can now be simulated in near real-time complete with precipitation. The temperature profile and tool then provide a means of directing the resulting formation..

WIRE: Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies

Science.gov (United States)

Heimo, A.; Cattin, R.; Calpini, B.

2010-09-01

Renewable energies such as wind and solar energy will play an important, even decisive role in order to mitigate and adapt to the projected dramatic consequences to our society and environment due to climate change. Due to shrinking fossil resources, the transition to more and more renewable energy shares is unavoidable. But, as wind and solar energy are strongly dependent on highly variable weather processes, increased penetration rates will also lead to strong fluctuations in the electricity grid which need to be balanced. Proper and specific forecasting of ‘energy weather' is a key component for this. Therefore, it is today appropriate to scientifically address the requirements to provide the best possible specific weather information for forecasting the energy production of wind and solar power plants within the next minutes up to several days. Towards such aims, Weather Intelligence will first include developing dedicated post-processing algorithms coupled with weather prediction models and with past and/or online measurement data especially remote sensing observations. Second, it will contribute to investigate the difficult relationship between the highly intermittent weather dependent power production and concurrent capacities such as transport and distribution of this energy to the end users. Selecting, resp. developing surface-based and satellite remote sensing techniques well adapted to supply relevant information to the specific post-processing algorithms for solar and wind energy production short-term forecasts is a major task with big potential. It will lead to improved energy forecasts and help to increase the efficiency of the renewable energy productions while contributing to improve the management and presumably the design of the energy grids. The second goal will raise new challenges as this will require first from the energy producers and distributors definitions of the requested input data and new technologies dedicated to the management of

Weather and emotional state

Science.gov (United States)

Spasova, Z.

2010-09-01

Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

Casebook on application for weather

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-11-01

This book introduces the excellent cases on application using weather at the industry, research center and public office. It lists the names and application cases in 2008 and 2009, which includes research on decease in risk by weather in the industry by Sam sung institute of safety and environment, service on weather information for people by KT, application with weather information in the flight by Korean air, use on weather information for prevention of disasters by Masan city hall, upgrade for business with weather marketing, center for river forecast in NOAA and the case using weather management for high profit margins.

Weather Instruments.

Science.gov (United States)

Brantley, L. Reed, Sr.; Demanche, Edna L.; Klemm, E. Barbara; Kyselka, Will; Phillips, Edwin A.; Pottenger, Francis M.; Yamamoto, Karen N.; Young, Donald B.

This booklet presents some activities to measure various weather phenomena. Directions for constructing a weather station are included. Instruments including rain gauges, thermometers, wind vanes, wind speed devices, humidity devices, barometers, atmospheric observations, a dustfall jar, sticky-tape can, detection of gases in the air, and pH of…

Weathering profiles in granitoid rocks of the Sila Massif uplands, Calabria, southern Italy: New insights into their formation processes and rates

Science.gov (United States)

Scarciglia, Fabio; Critelli, Salvatore; Borrelli, Luigi; Coniglio, Sabrina; Muto, Francesco; Perri, Francesco

2016-05-01

In this paper we characterized several weathering profiles developed on granitoid rocks in the Sila Massif upland (Calabria, southern Italy), integrating detailed macro- and micromorphological observations with physico-mechanical field tests and petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical analyses. We focused our attention on the main weathering and pedogenetic processes, trying to understand apparent discrepancies between weathering grade classes based on field description and geomechanical properties, and two common weathering indices, such as the micropetrographic index (Ip) and the chemical index of alteration (CIA). Our results showed that sericite on plagioclase and biotite chloritization, that represent inherited features formed during late-stage hydrothermal alteration of granitoid rocks, may cause an overestimation of the real degree of weathering of primary mineral grains under meteoric conditions, especially in lower weathering grade classes. Moreover, the frequent identification of Fe-Mn oxides and clay coatings of illuvial origin (rather than or in addition to those formed in situ), both at the macro- and microscale, may also explain an overestimation of the weathering degree with respect to field-based classifications. Finally, some apparent inconsistencies between field geomechanical responses and chemical weathering were interpreted as related to physical weathering processes (cryoclastism and thermoclastism), that lead to rock breakdown even when chemical weathering is not well developed. Hence, our study showed that particular caution is needed for evaluating weathering grades, because traditional field and geochemical-petrographic tools may be biased by inherited hydrothermal alteration, physical weathering and illuvial processes. On the basis of chronological constraints to soil formation obtained from a 42 ka-old volcanic input (mixed to granite parent materials) detected in the soil cover of the Sila Massif upland, a first attempt to estimate

The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute's severe storm nowcasting system

Science.gov (United States)

Novak, Petr

2007-02-01

To satisfy requirements for operational severe weather monitoring and prediction, the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) has developed a severe storm nowcasting system which uses weather radar data as its primary data source. Previous CHMI studies identified two methods of radar echo prediction, which were then implemented during 2003 into the Czech weather radar network operational weather processor. The applications put into operations were the Continuity Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation (COTREC) algorithm, and an application that predicts future radar fields using the wind field derived from the geopotential at 700 hPa calculated from a local numerical weather prediction model (ALADIN). To ensure timely delivery of the prediction products to the users, the forecasts are implemented into a web-based viewer (JSMeteoView) that has been developed by the CHMI Radar Department. At present, this viewer is used by all CHMI forecast offices for versatile visualization of radar and other meteorological data (Meteosat, lightning detection, NWP LAM output, SYNOP data) in the Internet/Intranet environment, and the viewer has detailed geographical navigation capabilities.

The severity of Internet addiction risk and its relationship with the severity of borderline personality features, childhood traumas, dissociative experiences, depression and anxiety symptoms among Turkish university students.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalbudak, Ercan; Evren, Cuneyt; Aldemir, Secil; Evren, Bilge

2014-11-30

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship of Internet addiction (IA) risk with the severity of borderline personality features, childhood traumas, dissociative experiences, depression and anxiety symptoms among Turkish university students. A total of 271 Turkish university students participated in this study. The students were assessed through the Internet Addiction Scale (IAS), the Borderline Personality Inventory (BPI), the Dissociative Experiences Scale (DES), the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ-28), the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and the Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI). The rates of students were 19.9% (n=54) in the high IA risk group, 38.7% (n=105) in the mild IA risk group and 41.3% (n=112) in the group without IA risk. Correlation analyses revealed that the severity of IA risk was related with BPI, DES, emotional abuse, CTQ-28, depression and anxiety scores. Univariate covariance analysis (ANCOVA) indicated that the severity of borderline personality features, emotional abuse, depression and anxiety symptoms were the predictors of IAS score, while gender had no effect on IAS score. Among childhood trauma types, emotional abuse seems to be the main predictor of IA risk severity. Borderline personality features predicted the severity of IA risk together with emotional abuse, depression and anxiety symptoms among Turkish university students. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Milestone in Commercial Space Weather: USTAR Center for Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Thompson, D. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Gardner, L. C.

2009-12-01

As of 2009, Utah State University (USU) hosts a new organization to develop commercial space weather applications using funding that has been provided by the State of Utah’s Utah Science Technology and Research (USTAR) initiative. The USTAR Center for Space Weather (UCSW) is located on the USU campus in Logan, Utah and is developing innovative applications for mitigating adverse space weather effects in technological systems. Space weather’s effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the Sun’s photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects communication and navigation systems. The UCSW has developed products for users of systems that are affected by space weather-driven ionospheric changes. For example, on September 1, 2009 USCW released, in conjunction with Space Environment Technologies, the world’s first real-time space weather via an iPhone app. Space WX displays the real-time, current global ionosphere total electron content along with its space weather drivers; it is available through the Apple iTunes store and is used around the planet. The Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system is now being run operationally in real-time at UCSW with the continuous ingestion of hundreds of global data streams to dramatically improve the ionosphere’s characterization. We discuss not only funding and technical advances that have led to current products but also describe the direction for UCSW that includes partnering opportunities for moving commercial space weather into fully automated specification and forecasting over the next half decade.

The Origin of the "Seasons" in Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Dikpati, Mausumi; Cally, Paul S.; McIntosh, Scott W.; Heifetz, Eyal

2017-11-01

Powerful `space weather' events caused by solar activity pose serious risks to human health, safety, economic activity and national security. Spikes in deaths due to heart attacks, strokes and other diseases occurred during prolonged power outages. Currently it is hard to prepare for and mitigate the impact of space weather because it is impossible to forecast the solar eruptions that can cause these terrestrial events until they are seen on the Sun. However, as recently reported in Nature, eruptive events like coronal mass ejections and solar flares, are organized into quasi-periodic "seasons", which include enhanced bursts of eruptions for several months, followed by quiet periods. We explored the dynamics of sunspot-producing magnetic fields and discovered for the first time that bursty and quiet seasons, manifested in surface magnetic structures, can be caused by quasi-periodic energy-exchange among magnetic fields, Rossby waves and differential rotation of the solar interior shear-layer (called tachocline). Our results for the first time provide a quantitative physical mechanism for forecasting the strength and duration of bursty seasons several months in advance, which can greatly enhance our ability to warn humans about dangerous solar bursts and prevent damage to satellites and power stations from space weather events.

Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

Science.gov (United States)

Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

1964-01-01

Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

Weatherization: Wyoming's Hidden Resource; Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Wyoming demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weather derivatives or how an energy company can hedge its weather risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tahghighi, A.; Carpentier, Ph.

2000-01-01

This paper gives a detailed overview of weather derivatives and explains where this new class of financial products falls. The emergence of weather derivatives came about as a response to a need in the energy sector to hedge this sector's weather risks. This article focuses on the nature of these financial contracts, what they include and how they are priced. This article concludes by stating that energy companies in Europe can no longer afford to remain exposed to weather risks in an increasingly privatized and competitive market

Formation of halloysite from feldspar: Low temperature, artificial weathering versus natural weathering

Science.gov (United States)

Parham, Walter E.

1969-01-01

Weathering products formed on surfaces of both potassium and plagioclase feldspar (An70), which were continuously leached in a Soxhlet extraction apparatus for 140 days with 7.21 of distilled water per day at a temperature of approximately 78°C, are morphologically identical to natural products developed on potassium feldspars weathered under conditions of good drainage in the humid tropics. The new products, which first appear as tiny bumps on the feldspar surface, start to develop mainly at exposed edges but also at apparently random sites on flat cleavage surfaces. As weathering continues, the bumps grow outward from the feldspar surface to form tapered projections, which then develop into wide-based thin films or sheets. The thin sheets of many projections merge laterally to form one continuous flame-shaped sheet. The sheets formed on potassium feldspars may then roll to form tubes that are inclined at a high angle to the feldspar surface. Etch pits of triangular outline on the artificially weathered potassium feldspars serve as sites for development of continuous, non-rolled, hollow tubes. It is inferred from its morphology that this weathering product is halloysite or its primitive form. The product of naturally weathered potassium feldspars is halloysite . 4H2O.The flame-shaped films or sheets formed on artificially weathered plagioclase feldspar do not develop into hollow tubes, but instead give rise to a platy mineral that is most probably boehmite. These plates form within the flame-shaped films, and with continued weathering are released as the film deteriorates. There is no indication from this experiment that platy pseudohexagonal kaolinite forms from any of these minerals under the initial stage of weathering.

Waste glass weathering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bates, J.K.; Buck, E.C.

1994-01-01

The weathering of glass is reviewed by examining processes that affect the reaction of commercial, historical, natural, and nuclear waste glass under conditions of contact with humid air and slowly dripping water, which may lead to immersion in nearly static solution. Radionuclide release data from weathered glass under conditions that may exist in an unsaturated environment are presented and compared to release under standard leaching conditions. While the comparison between the release under weathering and leaching conditions is not exact, due to variability of reaction in humid air, evidence is presented of radionuclide release under a variety of conditions. These results suggest that both the amount and form of radionuclide release can be affected by the weathering of glass

Metaevaluation of National Weatherization Assistance Program Based on State Studies, 1993-2002

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berry, L

2003-04-02

The National Weatherization Assistance Program, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and implemented by state and local agencies throughout the United States, weatherizes homes for low-income residents in order to increase their energy efficiency and lower utility bills. Research staff members at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) have performed two previous metaevaluations of this program (Berry, 1997; Schweitzer and Berry, 1999). Both of these earlier metaevaluations involved synthesizing the results from individual studies of state weatherization efforts completed during a several year period. This report is the third in a series of metaevaluations of state-level studies. It is built on the foundation developed by the previous two metaevaluations. The purpose of this report, like that of the two earlier ORNL metaevaluations, is to provide a current estimate of the average national energy savings per home weatherized for the Weatherization Assistance Program based on the relevant state-level studies. All three of the metaevaluations, including this one, were designed to be updates to the findings of a national evaluation of the Weatherization Assistance Program, which examined a representative national sample of several thousand structures weatherized in 1989 (Brown, Berry, Balzer, and Faby 1993). Although the first and second metaevaluations used separate sets of state-level studies, completed during different time periods, there was little difference in their findings about the typical national energy savings per weatherized home for homes that heat with natural gas. Our initial analysis efforts for this report involved repeating the same procedures that had been used in the previous two reports. In particular, we collected and examined only the state-level evaluations that had become available between September of 1998 and August of 2002. Once again, we found little difference in the average energy savings estimates per weatherized home that were

Coral-rubble ridges as dynamic coastal features - short-term reworking and weathering processes

Science.gov (United States)

Spiske, Michaela

2016-02-01

A coral-rubble ridge built by storm waves at Anegada (British Virgin Islands) underwent remarkable changes in shape and weathering in a 23-month period. The ridge is located along the island's north shore, in the lee of a fringing reef and a reef flat. This coarse-clast ridge showed two major changes between March 2013, when first examined, and February 2015, when revisited. First, a trench dug in 2013, and intentionally left open for further examination, was found almost completely infilled in 2015, and the ridge morphology was modified by slumping of clasts down the slope and by reworking attributable to minor storm waves. In size, composition and overall condition, most of the clasts that filled the trench resemble reworked clasts from the ridge itself; only a small portion had been newly brought ashore. Second, a dark gray patina formed on the whitish exteriors of the carbonate clasts that had been excavated in 2013. These biologically weathered, darkened clasts had become indistinguishable from clasts that had been at the ridge surface for a much longer time. The findings have two broader implications. First, coastal coarse-clast ridges respond not solely to major storms, but also to tropical storms or minor hurricanes. The modification and reworking of the ridge on Anegada most probably resulted from hurricane Gonzalo which was at category 1-2 as it passed about 60 km north of the island in October 2014. Second, staining of calcareous clasts by cyanobacteria in the supralittoral zone occurs within a few months. In this setting, the degree of darkening quickly saturates as a measure of exposure age.

Operational space weather service for GNSS precise positioning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Jakowski

2005-11-01

Full Text Available The ionospheric plasma can significantly influence the propagation of radio waves and the ionospheric disturbances are capable of causing range errors, rapid phase and amplitude fluctuations (radio scintillations of satellite signals that may lead to degradation of the system performance, its accuracy and reliability. The cause of such disturbances should be sought in the processes originating in the Sun. Numerous studies on these phenomena have been already carried out at a broad international level, in order to measure/estimate these space weather induced effects, to forecast them, and to understand and mitigate their impact on present-day technological systems. SWIPPA (Space Weather Impact on Precise Positioning Applications is a pilot project jointly supported by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR and the European Space Agency (ESA. The project aims at establishing, operating, and evaluating a specific space-weather monitoring service that can possibly lead to improving current positioning applications based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS. This space weather service provides GNSS users with essential expert information delivered in the form of several products - maps of TEC values, TEC spatial and temporal gradients, alerts for ongoing/oncoming ionosphere disturbances, etc.

Operational space weather service for GNSS precise positioning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Jakowski

2005-11-01

Full Text Available The ionospheric plasma can significantly influence the propagation of radio waves and the ionospheric disturbances are capable of causing range errors, rapid phase and amplitude fluctuations (radio scintillations of satellite signals that may lead to degradation of the system performance, its accuracy and reliability. The cause of such disturbances should be sought in the processes originating in the Sun. Numerous studies on these phenomena have been already carried out at a broad international level, in order to measure/estimate these space weather induced effects, to forecast them, and to understand and mitigate their impact on present-day technological systems.

SWIPPA (Space Weather Impact on Precise Positioning Applications is a pilot project jointly supported by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR and the European Space Agency (ESA. The project aims at establishing, operating, and evaluating a specific space-weather monitoring service that can possibly lead to improving current positioning applications based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS. This space weather service provides GNSS users with essential expert information delivered in the form of several products - maps of TEC values, TEC spatial and temporal gradients, alerts for ongoing/oncoming ionosphere disturbances, etc.

Implementation of special engineering safety features for severe accident management. New SAMG approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grigorov, D.; Borisov, E.; Mancheva, K.

2012-01-01

Conclusions: As a result of the thermohydraulic analysis conducted the following main conclusions are formulated: The operator actions for accident management are effective and allow reaching conditions for application of the new engineering safety features for SAMG; The new engineering safety features application is effective and prevents severe core damage for Scenario 1. For the Scenario 2 they prevents degradation and relocation of the reactor core for a long period of time (in the analysis this period is 10 h, but the unit could be kept in safe condition for longer time which is not specifically analysed).The maximal fuel cladding temperature for Scenario 1 reaches 558 o C. This low fuel cladding temperature gradient is achieved by applying a complex of operator actions which prevent any core damage. If the additional discharge line with DN 100 mm from the PRZ is not opened then a severe core damage occurs; The maximal fuel cladding temperature for Scenario 2 reaches 1307 o C. One of the possibilities for keeping this temperature below 1200 o C is to mount second line (the first SFP line is between YT12S03.S04) from the SFP to the TQ22 pipeline which is connected to YT14B01 hydroaccumulator line, between the check valves YT14S03.S04

The effort to increase the space weather forecasting accuracy in KSWC

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, J. S.

2017-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition as the Regional Warning Center of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. Recently, KSWC are focusing on increasing the accuracy of space weather forecasting results and verifying the model generated results. The forecasting accuracy will be calculated based on the probability statistical estimation so that the results can be compared numerically. Regarding the cosmic radiation does, we are gathering the actual measured data of radiation does using the instrument by cooperation with the domestic airlines. Based on the measurement, we are going to verify the reliability of SAFE system which was developed by KSWC to provide the cosmic radiation does information with the airplane cabin crew and public users.

Clay formation and metal fixation during weathering of coal fly ash

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zevenbergen, C.; Bradley, J.P.; Reeuwijk, L.P. Van; Shyam, A.K.; Hjelmar, O.; Comans, R.N.J.

1999-01-01

The enormous and worldwide production of coal fly ash cannot be durably isolated from the weathering cycle, and the weathering characteristics of fly ash must be known to understand the long-term environmental impact. The authors studied the weathering of two coal fly ashes and compared them with published data from weathered volcanic ash, it's closest natural analogue. Both types of ash contain abundant aluminosilicate glass, which alters to noncrystalline clay. However, this study reveals that the kinetics of coal fly ash weathering are more rapid than those of volcanic ash because the higher pH of fresh coal fly ash promotes rapid dissolution of the glass. After about 10 years of weathering, the noncrystalline clay content of coal fly ash is higher than that of 250-year-old volcanic ash. The observed rapid clay formation together with heavy metal fixation imply that the long-term environmental impact of coal fly ash disposal may be less severe and the benefits more pronounced than predicted from previous studies on unweathered ash. Their findings suggest that isolating coal fly ash from the weathering cycle may be counterproductive because, in the long-term under conditions of free drainage, fly ash is converted into fertile soil capable of supporting agriculture

Severe visceral leishmaniasis in children: the relationship between cytokine patterns and clinical features

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monica Elinor Alves Gama

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction The relationship between severe clinical manifestations of visceral leishmaniasis (VL and immune response profiles has not yet been clarified, despite numerous studies on the subject. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between cytokine profiles and the presence of immunological markers associated with clinical manifestations and, particularly, signs of severity, as defined in a protocol drafted by the Ministry of Health (Brazil. Methods We conducted a prospective, descriptive study between May 2008 and December 2009. This study was based on an assessment of all pediatric patients with VL who were observed in a reference hospital in Maranhão. Results Among 27 children, 55.5% presented with more than one sign of severity or warning sign. Patients without signs of severity or warning signs and patients with only one warning sign had the highest interferon-gamma (IFN-γ levels, although their interleukin 10 (IL-10 levels were also elevated. In contrast, patients with the features of severe disease had the lowest IFN-γ levels. Three patients who presented with more than two signs of severe disease died; these patients had undetectable interleukin 2 (IL-2 and IFN-γ levels and low IL-10 levels, which varied between 0 and 36.8pg/mL. Conclusions Our results showed that disease severity was associated with low IFN-γ levels and elevated IL-10 levels. However, further studies with larger samples are needed to better characterize the relationship between disease severity and cytokine levels, with the aim of identifying immunological markers of active-disease severity.

Weather Radar Stations

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Homeland Security — These data represent Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) weather radar stations within the US. The NEXRAD radar stations are...

Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

Science.gov (United States)

Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc;

Analysis of winter weather conditions and their potential impact on wind farm operations

Science.gov (United States)

Novakovskaia, E.; Treinish, L. A.; Praino, A.

2009-12-01

Severe weather conditions have two primary impacts on wind farm operations. The first relates to understanding potential damage to the turbines themselves and what actions are required to mitigate the effects. The second is recognizing what conditions may lead to a full or partial shutdown of the wind farm with sufficient lead time to determine the likely inability to meet energy generation committments. Ideally, wind forecasting suitable for wind farm operations should be of sufficient fidelity to resolve features within the boundary layer that lead to either damaging conditions or useful power generation. Given the complexity of the site-specific factors that effect the boundary layer at the scale of typical land-based wind farm locations such as topography, vegetation, land use, soil conditions, etc., which may vary with turbine design and layout within the farm, enabling reliable forecasts of too little or too much wind is challenging. A potential solution should involve continuous updates of alert triggering criteria through analysis of local wind patterns and probabilistic risk assessment for each location. To evaluate this idea, we utilize our operational mesoscale prediction system, dubbed “Deep Thunder”, developed at the IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center. In particular, we analyze winter-time near-surface winds in upstate New York, where four similar winds farms are located. Each of these farms were built at roughly the same time and utilize similar turbines. Given the relative uncertainty associated with numerical weather prediction at this scale, and the difference in risk assessment due to the two primary impacts of severe weather, probabilistic forecasts are a prerequisite. Hence, we have employed ensembles of weather scenarios, which are based on the NCAR WRF-ARW modelling system. The set of ensemble members was composed with variations in the choices of physics and parameterization schemes, and source of background fields for initial

Internet Weather Source

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

Space weather monitoring by groundbased means

CERN Document Server

Troshichev, Oleg

2012-01-01

This book demonstrates that the method, based on the ground polar cap magnetic observations is a reliable diagnosis of the solar wind energy coming into the magnetosphere Method for the uninterruptive monitoring of the magnetosphere state (i.e. space weather). It shows that the solar wind energy pumping power, can be described by the PC growth rate, thus, the magnetospheric substorms features are predetermined by the PC dynamics. Furthermore, it goes on to show that the beginning and ending of magnetic storms is predictable. The magnetic storm start only if the solar energy input into the magn

Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jón Einar Jónsson

Full Text Available Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1 demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900-2007; and 2 impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2-3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918 and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995. In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers

Mariners Weather Log

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Mariners Weather Log (MWL) is a publication containing articles, news and information about marine weather events and phenomena, worldwide environmental impact...

Pilot Weather Reports

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviation weather reports relayed from pilots to FAA air traffic controllers or National Weather Service personnel. Elements include sky cover, turbulence, wind...

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

Science.gov (United States)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; Gotway, John H.; White, Kristopher; Medlin, Jeffrey; Wood, Lance; Radell, Dave

2014-01-01

Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use

Modeling the weather impact on aviation in a global air traffic model

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Himmelsbach, S.; Hauf, T.; Rokitansky, C. H.

2009-09-01

Weather has a strong impact on aviation safety and efficiency. For a better understanding of that impact, especially of thunderstorms and similar other severe hazards, we pursued a modeling approach. We used the detailed simulation software (NAVSIM) of worldwide air traffic, developed by Rokitansky [Eurocontrol, 2005] and implemented a specific weather module. NAVSIM models each aircraft with its specific performance characteristics separately along preplanned and prescribed routes. The specific weather module in its current version simulates a thunderstorm as an impenetrable 3D object, which forces an aircraft to circumvent the latter. We refer to that object in general terms as a weather object. The Cb-weather object, as a specific weather object, is a heuristic model of a real thunderstorm, with its characteristics based on actually observed satellite and precipitation radar data. It is comprised of an upper volume, mostly the anvil, and a bottom volume, the up- and downdrafts and the lower outflow area [Tafferner and Forster, 2009; Kober and Tafferner 2009; Zinner et al, 2008]. The Cb-weather object is already implemented in NAVSIM, other weather objects like icing and turbulence will follow. This combination of NAVSIM with a weather object allows a detailed investigation of situations where conflicts exist between planned flight routes and adverse weather. The first objective is to simulate the observed circum-navigation in NAVSIM. Real occurring routes will be compared with simulated ones. Once this has successfully completed, NAVSIM offers a platform to assess existing rules and develop more efficient strategies to cope with adverse weather. An overview will be given over the implementation status of weather objects within NAVSIM and first results will be presented. Cb-object data provision by A. Tafferner, C. Forster, T. Zinner, K. Kober, M. Hagen (DLR Oberpfaffenhofen) is greatly acknowledged. References: Eurocontrol, VDL Mode 2 Capacity Analysis through

Surface Weather Observations

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Surface Weather Observation Collection consists primarily of hourly, synoptic, daily, and monthly forms submitted to the archive by the National Weather Service...

Radar Weather Observation

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Radar Weather Observation is a set of archived historical manuscripts stored on microfiche. The primary source of these radar weather observations manuscript records...

Daily Weather Records

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

Differences in the importance of weather and weather-based decisions among campers in Ontario parks (Canada)

Science.gov (United States)

Hewer, Micah J.; Scott, Daniel J.; Gough, William A.

2017-10-01

Parks and protected areas represent an important resource for tourism in Canada, in which camping is a common recreational activity. The important relationship between weather and climate with recreation and tourism has been widely acknowledged within the academic literature. Howbeit, the need for activity-specific assessments has been identified as an on-going need for future research in the field of tourism climatology. Furthermore, very little is known about the interrelationships between personal characteristics and socio-demographics with weather preferences and behavioural thresholds. This study uses a stated climate preferences approach (survey responses) to explore differences in the importance of weather and related weather-based decisions among summer campers in Ontario parks. Statistically significant differences were found among campers for each of the four dependent variables tested in this study. Physically active campers placed greater importance on weather but were still more tolerant of adverse weather conditions. Older campers placed greater importance on weather. Campers travelling shorter distances placed greater importance on weather and were more likely to leave the park early due to adverse weather. Campers staying for longer periods of time were less likely to leave early due to weather and were willing to endure longer durations of adverse weather conditions. Beginner campers placed greater importance on weather, were more likely to leave early due to weather and recorded lower temporal weather thresholds. The results of this study contribute to the study of tourism climatology by furthering understanding of how personal characteristics such as gender, age, activity selection, trip duration, distance travelled, travel experience and life cycles affect weather preferences and decisions, focusing this time on recreational camping in a park tourism context.

Automatic assessment of mitral regurgitation severity based on extensive textural features on 2D echocardiography videos.

Science.gov (United States)

Moghaddasi, Hanie; Nourian, Saeed

2016-06-01

Heart disease is the major cause of death as well as a leading cause of disability in the developed countries. Mitral Regurgitation (MR) is a common heart disease which does not cause symptoms until its end stage. Therefore, early diagnosis of the disease is of crucial importance in the treatment process. Echocardiography is a common method of diagnosis in the severity of MR. Hence, a method which is based on echocardiography videos, image processing techniques and artificial intelligence could be helpful for clinicians, especially in borderline cases. In this paper, we introduce novel features to detect micro-patterns of echocardiography images in order to determine the severity of MR. Extensive Local Binary Pattern (ELBP) and Extensive Volume Local Binary Pattern (EVLBP) are presented as image descriptors which include details from different viewpoints of the heart in feature vectors. Support Vector Machine (SVM), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Template Matching techniques are used as classifiers to determine the severity of MR based on textural descriptors. The SVM classifier with Extensive Uniform Local Binary Pattern (ELBPU) and Extensive Volume Local Binary Pattern (EVLBP) have the best accuracy with 99.52%, 99.38%, 99.31% and 99.59%, respectively, for the detection of Normal, Mild MR, Moderate MR and Severe MR subjects among echocardiography videos. The proposed method achieves 99.38% sensitivity and 99.63% specificity for the detection of the severity of MR and normal subjects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extremely Severe Space Weather and Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Regions with Locally Heterogeneous Ground Resistivity

Science.gov (United States)

Fujita, Shigeru; Kataoka, Ryuho; Pulkkinen, Antti; Watari, Shinichi

2016-01-01

Large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) triggered by extreme space weather events are now regarded as one of the serious natural threats to the modern electrified society. The risk is described in detail in High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk, A Jointly-Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Department of Energy's November 2009 Workshop, June 2010. For example, the March 13-14,1989 storm caused a large-scale blackout affecting about 6 million people in Quebec, Canada, and resulting in substantial economic losses in Canada and the USA (Bolduc 2002). Therefore, European and North American nations have invested in GIC research such as the Solar Shield project in the USA (Pulkkinen et al. 2009, 2015a). In 2015, the Japanese government (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, METI) acknowledged the importance of GIC research in Japan. After reviewing the serious damages caused by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, METI recognized the potential risk to the electric power grid posed by extreme space weather. During extreme events, GICs can be concerning even in mid- and low-latitude countries and have become a global issue.

Future development of IR thermovision weather satellite equipment

Science.gov (United States)

Listratov, A. V.

1974-01-01

The self radiation of the surface being viewed is used for image synthesis in IR thermovision equipment. The installation of such equipment aboard weather satellites makes it possible to obtain cloud cover pictures of the earth's surface in a complete orbit, regardless of the illumination conditions, and also provides quantitative information on the underlying surface temperature and cloud top height. Such equipment is used successfully aboard the Soviet satellites of the Meteor system, and experimentally on the American satellites of the Nimbus series. With regard to surface resolution, the present-day IR weather satellite equipment is inferior to the television equipment. This is due primarily to the comparatively low detectivity of the IR detectors used. While IR equipment has several fundamental advantages in comparison with the conventional television equipment, the problem arises of determining the possibility for future development of weather satellite IR thermovision equipment. Criteria are examined for evaluating the quality of IR.

Simulation and Data Analytics for Mobile Road Weather Sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Chettri, S. R.; Evans, J. D.; Tislin, D.

2016-12-01

Numerous algorithmic and theoretical considerations arise in simulating a vehicle-based weather observation network known as the Mobile Platform Environmental Data (MoPED). MoPED integrates sensor data from a fleet of commercial vehicles (about 600 at last count, with thousands more to come) as they travel interstate, state and local routes and metropolitan areas throughout the conterminous United States. The MoPED simulator models a fleet of anywhere between 1000-10,000 vehicles that travel a highway network encoded in a geospatial database, starting and finishing at random times and moving at randomly-varying speeds. Virtual instruments aboard these vehicles interpolate surface weather parameters (such as temperature and pressure) from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data series, an hourly, coast-to-coast 3km grid of weather parameters modeled by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Whereas real MoPED sensors have noise characteristics that lead to drop-outs, drift, or physically unrealizable values, our simulation introduces a variety of noise distributions into the parameter values inferred from HRRR (Fig. 1). Finally, the simulator collects weather readings from the National Weather Service's Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS, comprised of over 800 airports around the country) for comparison, validation, and analytical experiments. The simulator's MoPED-like weather data stream enables studies like the following: Experimenting with data analysis and calibration methods - e.g., by comparing noisy vehicle data with ASOS "ground truth" in close spatial and temporal proximity (e.g., 10km, 10 min) (Fig. 2). Inter-calibrating different vehicles' sensors when they pass near each other. Detecting spatial structure in the surface weather - such as dry lines, sudden changes in humidity that accompany severe weather - and estimating how many vehicles are needed to reliably map these structures and their motion. Detecting bottlenecks in the

NASA Aviation Safety Program Weather Accident Prevention/weather Information Communications (WINCOMM)

Science.gov (United States)

Feinberg, Arthur; Tauss, James; Chomos, Gerald (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Weather is a contributing factor in approximately 25-30 percent of general aviation accidents. The lack of timely, accurate and usable weather information to the general aviation pilot in the cockpit to enhance pilot situational awareness and improve pilot judgment remains a major impediment to improving aviation safety. NASA Glenn Research Center commissioned this 120 day weather datalink market survey to assess the technologies, infrastructure, products, and services of commercial avionics systems being marketed to the general aviation community to address these longstanding safety concerns. A market survey of companies providing or proposing to provide graphical weather information to the general aviation cockpit was conducted. Fifteen commercial companies were surveyed. These systems are characterized and evaluated in this report by availability, end-user pricing/cost, system constraints/limits and technical specifications. An analysis of market survey results and an evaluation of product offerings were made. In addition, recommendations to NASA for additional research and technology development investment have been made as a result of this survey to accelerate deployment of cockpit weather information systems for enhancing aviation safety.

Geodetic Space Weather Monitoring by means of Ionosphere Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Michael

2017-04-01

The term space weather indicates physical processes and phenomena in space caused by radiation of energy mainly from the Sun. Manifestations of space weather are (1) variations of the Earth's magnetic field, (2) the polar lights in the northern and southern hemisphere, (3) variations within the ionosphere as part of the upper atmosphere characterized by the existence of free electrons and ions, (4) the solar wind, i.e. the permanent emission of electrons and photons, (5) the interplanetary magnetic field, and (6) electric currents, e.g. the van Allen radiation belt. It can be stated that ionosphere disturbances are often caused by so-called solar storms. A solar storm comprises solar events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which have different effects on the Earth. Solar flares may cause disturbances in positioning, navigation and communication. CMEs can effect severe disturbances and in extreme cases damages or even destructions of modern infrastructure. Examples are interruptions to satellite services including the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), communication systems, Earth observation and imaging systems or a potential failure of power networks. Currently the measurements of solar satellite missions such as STEREO and SOHO are used to forecast solar events. Besides these measurements the Earth's ionosphere plays another key role in monitoring the space weather, because it responses to solar storms with an increase of the electron density. Space-geodetic observation techniques, such as terrestrial GNSS, satellite altimetry, space-borne GPS (radio occultation), DORIS and VLBI provide valuable global information about the state of the ionosphere. Additionally geodesy has a long history and large experience in developing and using sophisticated analysis and combination techniques as well as empirical and physical modelling approaches. Consequently, geodesy is predestinated for strongly supporting space weather monitoring via

A newly recognized syndrome of severe growth deficiency, microcephaly, intellectual disability, and characteristic facial features.

Science.gov (United States)

Vinkler, Chana; Leshinsky-Silver, Esther; Michelson, Marina; Haas, Dorothea; Lerman-Sagie, Tally; Lev, Dorit

2014-01-01

Genetic syndromes with proportionate severe short stature are rare. We describe two sisters born to nonconsanguineous parents with severe linear growth retardation, poor weight gain, microcephaly, characteristic facial features, cutaneous syndactyly of the toes, high myopia, and severe intellectual disability. During infancy and early childhood, the girls had transient hepatosplenomegaly and low blood cholesterol levels that normalized later. A thorough evaluation including metabolic studies, radiological, and genetic investigations were all normal. Cholesterol metabolism and transport were studied and no definitive abnormality was found. No clinical deterioration was observed and no metabolic crises were reported. After due consideration of other known hereditary causes of post-natal severe linear growth retardation, microcephaly, and intellectual disability, we propose that this condition represents a newly recognized autosomal recessive multiple congenital anomaly-intellectual disability syndrome. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Weatherization Makes Headlines in Connecticut: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Connecticut demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization Makes Headlines in Connecticut: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D& R International

2001-10-10

Connecticut demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

New York Signals Weatherization Savings: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

New York demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

New York Signals Weatherization Savings: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D& R International

2001-10-10

New York demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

Fisher Information Based Meteorological Factors Introduction and Features Selection for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuping Cai

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Weather information is an important factor in short-term load forecasting (STLF. However, for a long time, more importance has always been attached to forecasting models instead of other processes such as the introduction of weather factors or feature selection for STLF. The main aim of this paper is to develop a novel methodology based on Fisher information for meteorological variables introduction and variable selection in STLF. Fisher information computation for one-dimensional and multidimensional weather variables is first described, and then the introduction of meteorological factors and variables selection for STLF models are discussed in detail. On this basis, different forecasting models with the proposed methodology are established. The proposed methodology is implemented on real data obtained from Electric Power Utility of Zhenjiang, Jiangsu Province, in southeast China. The results show the advantages of the proposed methodology in comparison with other traditional ones regarding prediction accuracy, and it has very good practical significance. Therefore, it can be used as a unified method for introducing weather variables into STLF models, and selecting their features.

Clinical features and risk factors of acute hepatitis E with severe jaundice.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Bin; Yu, Hai-Bin; Hui, Wei; He, Jia-Li; Wei, Lin-Lin; Wang, Zheng; Guo, Xin-Hui

2012-12-28

To compares the clinical features of patients infected with hepatitis E virus (HEV) with or without severe jaundice. In addition, the risk factors for HEV infection with severe jaundice were investigated. We enrolled 235 patients with HEV into a cross-sectional study using multi-stage sampling to select the study group. Patients with possible acute hepatitis E showing elevated liver enzyme levels were screened for HEV infection using serologic and molecular tools.HEV infection was documented by HEV antibodies and by the detection of HEV-RNA in serum. We used χ(2) analysis, Fisher's exact test, and Student's t test where appropriate in this study. Significant predictors in the univariate analysis were then included in a forward, stepwise multiple logistic regression model. No significant differences in symptoms, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, or hepatitis B virus surface antigen between the two groups were observed. HEV infected patients with severe jaundice had significantly lower peak serum levels of γ-glutamyl-transpeptidase (GGT) (median: 170.31 U/L vs 237.96 U/L, P = 0.007), significantly lower ALB levels (33.84 g/L vs 36.89 g/L, P = 0.000), significantly lower acetylcholine esterase (CHE) levels (4500.93 U/L vs 5815.28 U/L, P = 0.000) and significantly higher total bile acid (TBA) levels (275.56 μmol/L vs 147.03 μmol/L, P = 0.000) than those without severe jaundice. The median of the lowest point time tended to be lower in patients with severe jaundice (81.64% vs 96.12%, P = 0.000). HEV infected patients with severe jaundice had a significantly higher viral load (median: 134 vs 112, P = 0.025) than those without severe jaundice. HEV infected patients with severe jaundice showed a trend toward longer median hospital stay (38.17 d vs 18.36 d, P = 0.073). Multivariate logistic regression indicated that there were significant differences in age, sex, viral load, GGT, albumin, TBA, CHE, prothrombin index, alcohol

Weather Effects on Crop Diseases in Eastern Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Conradt, Tobias

2017-04-01

Since the 1970s there are several long-term monitoring programmes for plant diseases and pests in Germany. Within the framework of a national research project, some otherwise confidential databases comprising 77 111 samples from numerous sites accross Eastern Germany could be accessed and analysed. The pest data covered leaf rust (Puccinia triticina) and powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis) in winter wheat, aphids (Aphididae, four genera) on wheat and other cereal crops, late blight (Phytophthora infestans) in potatoes, and pollen beetles (Brassicogethes aeneus) on rape. These data were complemented by daily weather observations from the German Weather Service (DWD). In a first step, Pearson correlations between weather variables and pest frequencies were calculated for seasonal time periods of different start months and durations and ordered into so-called correlograms. This revealed principal weather effects on disease spread - e. g. that wind is favourable for mildew throughout the year or that rape pollen beetles like it warm, but not during wintertime. Secondly, the pest frequency samples were found to resemble gamma distributions, and a generalised linear model was fitted to describe their parameter shift depending on end-of-winter temperatures for aphids on cereals. The method clearly shows potential for systematic pest risk assessments regarding climate change.

Distributed Sensor Network for meteorological observations and numerical weather Prediction Calculations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Á. Vas

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The prediction of weather generally means the solution of differential equations on the base of the measured initial conditions where the data of close and distant neighboring points are used for the calculations. It requires the maintenance of expensive weather stations and supercomputers. However, if weather stations are not only capable of measuring but can also communicate with each other, then these smart sensors can also be applied to run forecasting calculations. This applies the highest possible level of parallelization without the collection of measured data into one place. Furthermore, if more nodes are involved, the result becomes more accurate, but the computing power required from one node does not increase. Our Distributed Sensor Network for meteorological sensing and numerical weather Prediction Calculations (DSN-PC can be applied in several different areas where sensing and numerical calculations, even the solution of differential equations, are needed.

Extreme weather-year sequences have nonadditive effects on environmental nitrogen losses.

Science.gov (United States)

Iqbal, Javed; Necpalova, Magdalena; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Anex, Robert P; Bourguignon, Marie; Herzmann, Daryl; Mitchell, David C; Sawyer, John E; Zhu, Qing; Castellano, Michael J

2018-01-01

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather years, characterized by abnormal precipitation and temperature, are increasing. In isolation, these years have disproportionately large effects on environmental N losses. However, the sequence of extreme weather years (e.g., wet-dry vs. dry-wet) may affect cumulative N losses. We calibrated and validated the DAYCENT ecosystem process model with a comprehensive set of biogeophysical measurements from a corn-soybean rotation managed at three N fertilizer inputs with and without a winter cover crop in Iowa, USA. Our objectives were to determine: (i) how 2-year sequences of extreme weather affect 2-year cumulative N losses across the crop rotation, and (ii) if N fertilizer management and the inclusion of a winter cover crop between corn and soybean mitigate the effect of extreme weather on N losses. Using historical weather (1951-2013), we created nine 2-year scenarios with all possible combinations of the driest ("dry"), wettest ("wet"), and average ("normal") weather years. We analyzed the effects of these scenarios following several consecutive years of relatively normal weather. Compared with the normal-normal 2-year weather scenario, 2-year extreme weather scenarios affected 2-year cumulative NO 3 - leaching (range: -93 to +290%) more than N 2 O emissions (range: -49 to +18%). The 2-year weather scenarios had nonadditive effects on N losses: compared with the normal-normal scenario, the dry-wet sequence decreased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions while the wet-dry sequence increased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions. Although dry weather decreased NO 3 - leaching and N 2 O emissions in isolation, 2-year cumulative N losses from the wet-dry scenario were greater than the dry-wet scenario. Cover crops reduced the effects of extreme weather on NO 3 - leaching but had a lesser effect on N 2 O emissions. As the frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase, these data suggest that the sequence of interannual weather

Fair weather atmospheric electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, R G

2011-01-01

Not long after Franklin's iconic studies, an atmospheric electric field was discovered in 'fair weather' regions, well away from thunderstorms. The origin of the fair weather field was sought by Lord Kelvin, through development of electrostatic instrumentation and early data logging techniques, but was ultimately explained through the global circuit model of C.T.R. Wilson. In Wilson's model, charge exchanged by disturbed weather electrifies the ionosphere, and returns via a small vertical current density in fair weather regions. New insights into the relevance of fair weather atmospheric electricity to terrestrial and planetary atmospheres are now emerging. For example, there is a possible role of the global circuit current density in atmospheric processes, such as cloud formation. Beyond natural atmospheric processes, a novel practical application is the use of early atmospheric electrostatic investigations to provide quantitative information on past urban air pollution.

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. Each has benefited from 3-dimensional analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive and complete understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Recent efforts have been undertaken to update the LDIS through the formal tasking process of NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit. The goals include upgrading LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporating new sources of observational data, and making adjustments to shell scripts written to govern the system. A series of scripts run a complete modeling system consisting of the preprocessing step, the main model integration, and the post-processing step. The preprocessing step prepares the terrain, surface characteristics data sets, and the objective analysis for model initialization. Data ingested through ADAS include (but are not limited to) Level II Weather Surveillance Radar- 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from six Florida radars, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) visible and infrared satellite imagery, surface and upper air observations throughout Florida from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division

Weather forecasting based on hybrid neural model

Science.gov (United States)

Saba, Tanzila; Rehman, Amjad; AlGhamdi, Jarallah S.

2017-11-01

Making deductions and expectations about climate has been a challenge all through mankind's history. Challenges with exact meteorological directions assist to foresee and handle problems well in time. Different strategies have been investigated using various machine learning techniques in reported forecasting systems. Current research investigates climate as a major challenge for machine information mining and deduction. Accordingly, this paper presents a hybrid neural model (MLP and RBF) to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasting. Proposed hybrid model ensure precise forecasting due to the specialty of climate anticipating frameworks. The study concentrates on the data representing Saudi Arabia weather forecasting. The main input features employed to train individual and hybrid neural networks that include average dew point, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, average relative moistness, precipitation, normal wind speed, high wind speed and average cloudiness. The output layer composed of two neurons to represent rainy and dry weathers. Moreover, trial and error approach is adopted to select an appropriate number of inputs to the hybrid neural network. Correlation coefficient, RMSE and scatter index are the standard yard sticks adopted for forecast accuracy measurement. On individual standing MLP forecasting results are better than RBF, however, the proposed simplified hybrid neural model comes out with better forecasting accuracy as compared to both individual networks. Additionally, results are better than reported in the state of art, using a simple neural structure that reduces training time and complexity.

Aviation & Space Weather Policy Research: Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, G.; Jones, B.

2006-12-01

The American Meteorological Society and SolarMetrics Limited are conducting a policy research project leading to recommendations that will increase the safety, reliability, and efficiency of the nation's airline operations through more effective use of space weather forecasts and information. This study, which is funded by a 3-year National Science Foundation grant, also has the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) who is planning the Next Generation Air Transportation System. A major component involves interviewing and bringing together key people in the aviation industry who deal with space weather information. This research also examines public and industrial strategies and plans to respond to space weather information. The focus is to examine policy issues in implementing effective application of space weather services to the management of the nation's aviation system. The results from this project will provide government and industry leaders with additional tools and information to make effective decisions with respect to investments in space weather research and services. While space weather can impact the entire aviation industry, and this project will address national and international issues, the primary focus will be on developing a U.S. perspective for the airlines.

Forecasting Space Weather-Induced GPS Performance Degradation Using Random Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Filjar, R.; Filic, M.; Milinkovic, F.

2017-12-01

Space weather and ionospheric dynamics have a profound effect on positioning performance of the Global Satellite Navigation System (GNSS). However, the quantification of that effect is still the subject of scientific activities around the world. In the latest contribution to the understanding of the space weather and ionospheric effects on satellite-based positioning performance, we conducted a study of several candidates for forecasting method for space weather-induced GPS positioning performance deterioration. First, a 5-days set of experimentally collected data was established, encompassing the space weather and ionospheric activity indices (including: the readings of the Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (SID) monitors, components of geomagnetic field strength, global Kp index, Dst index, GPS-derived Total Electron Content (TEC) samples, standard deviation of TEC samples, and sunspot number) and observations of GPS positioning error components (northing, easting, and height positioning error) derived from the Adriatic Sea IGS reference stations' RINEX raw pseudorange files in quiet space weather periods. This data set was split into the training and test sub-sets. Then, a selected set of supervised machine learning methods based on Random Forest was applied to the experimentally collected data set in order to establish the appropriate regional (the Adriatic Sea) forecasting models for space weather-induced GPS positioning performance deterioration. The forecasting models were developed in the R/rattle statistical programming environment. The forecasting quality of the regional forecasting models developed was assessed, and the conclusions drawn on the advantages and shortcomings of the regional forecasting models for space weather-caused GNSS positioning performance deterioration.

Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability

Science.gov (United States)

Frieler, Katja; Schauberger, Bernhard; Arneth, Almut; Balkovič, Juraj; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Müller, Christoph; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schewe, Jacob; Schmid, Erwin; Warszawski, Lila; Levermann, Anders

2017-06-01

Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.

Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) Project: Dissemination of Weather Information for the Reduction of Aviation Weather-Related Accident Causal Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Jarrell, Michael; Tanger, Thomas

2004-01-01

Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) is part of the Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Project, which is part of the NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program. The goals of WINCOMM are to facilitate the exchange of tactical and strategic weather information between air and ground. This viewgraph presentation provides information on data link decision factors, architectures, validation goals. WINCOMM is capable of providing en-route communication air-to-ground, ground-to-air, and air-to-air, even on international or intercontinental flights. The presentation also includes information on the capacity, cost, and development of data links.

SPAGETTA: a Multi-Purpose Gridded Stochastic Weather Generator

Science.gov (United States)

Dubrovsky, M.; Huth, R.; Rotach, M. W.; Dabhi, H.

2017-12-01

SPAGETTA is a new multisite/gridded multivariate parametric stochastic weather generator (WG). Site-specific precipitation occurrence and amount are modelled by Markov chain and Gamma distribution, the non-precipitation variables are modelled by an autoregressive (AR) model conditioned on precipitation occurrence, and the spatial coherence of all variables is modelled following the Wilks' (2009) approach. SPAGETTA may be run in two modes. Mode 1: it is run as a classical WG, which is calibrated using weather series from multiple sites, and only then it may produce arbitrarily long synthetic series mimicking the spatial and temporal structure of the calibration data. To generate the weather series representing the future climate, the WG parameters are modified according to the climate change scenario, typically derived from GCM or RCM simulations. Mode 2: the user provides only basic information (not necessarily to be realistic) on the temporal and spatial auto-correlation structure of the weather variables and their mean annual cycle; the generator itself derives the parameters of the underlying AR model, which produces the multi-site weather series. Optionally, the user may add the spatially varying trend, which is superimposed to the synthetic series. The contribution consists of following parts: (a) Model of the WG. (b) Validation of WG in terms of the spatial temperature and precipitation characteristics, including characteristics of spatial hot/cold/dry/wet spells. (c) Results of the climate change impact experiment, in which the WG parameters representing the spatial and temporal variability are modified using the climate change scenarios and the effect on the above spatial validation indices is analysed. In this experiment, the WG is calibrated using the E-OBS gridded daily weather data for several European regions, and the climate change scenarios are derived from the selected RCM simulations (CORDEX database). (d) The second mode of operation will be

Weather Regime-Dependent Predictability: Sequentially Linked High-Impact Weather Events over the United States during March 2016

Science.gov (United States)

Bosart, L. F.; Winters, A. C.; Keyser, D.

2016-12-01

High-impact weather events (HWEs), defined by episodes of excessive precipitation or periods of well above or well below normal temperatures, can pose important predictability challenges on medium-range (8-16 day) time scales. Furthermore, HWEs can contribute disproportionately to temperature and precipitation anomaly statistics for a particular season. This disproportionate contribution suggests that HWEs need to be considered in describing and understanding the dynamical and thermodynamic processes that operate at the weather-climate intersection. HWEs typically develop in conjunction with highly amplified flow patterns that permit an extensive latitudinal exchange of polar and tropical air masses. Highly amplified flow patterns over North America often occur in response to a reconfiguration of the large-scale upstream flow pattern over the North Pacific Ocean. The large-scale flow pattern over the North Pacific, North America, and western North Atlantic during the latter half of March 2016 was characterized by frequent cyclonic wave breaking (CWB). This large-scale flow pattern enabled three sequentially linked HWEs to develop over the continental United States. The first HWE was a challenging-to-predict cyclogenesis event on 23-24 March in the central Plains that resulted in both a major snowstorm along the Colorado Front Range and a severe weather outbreak over the central and southern Plains. The second HWE was a severe weather outbreak that occurred over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys on 27-28 March. The third HWE was the development of well below normal temperatures over the eastern United States that followed the formation of a high-latitude omega block over northwestern North America during 28 March-1 April. This study will examine (1) the role that CWB over the North Pacific and North America played in the evolution of the flow pattern during late-March 2016 and the development of the three HWEs and (2) the skill of GFS operational and ensemble

Annual distributions and variations of dust weather occurrence over the Tarim Basin, China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yong; Zhou, Yang; Wang, Minzhong; Huo, Wen; Huang, Anning; Yang, Xinhua; Yang, Fan

2018-04-01

The annual distribution and variations in dust weather occurrence (DWO) have been analyzed using monthly DWO data from 26 stations over the Tarim Basin during the period of 1961 to 2010. The results show that the DWO presents a significant decreasing trend for different parts of the Tarim Basin in recent decades. The monthly DWO has two peaks in the east and west. In the first half of the year, the peak is in April, but in the second half of the year, the peak is in September. According to the concentration period and concentration degree (CD) of DWO, we can find that the maximum DWO occurs in April in the eastern, western, and northern parts of the basin, but it occurs in May in the southern part. The dust weather season is shorter for the northern and eastern parts of the basin than those of the remaining parts. On average, the dust weather season initiates in April in the northeast and in May for the rest of the region. As an indicator for the length of dust weather season, the CD is significantly related to DWO, with a correlation coefficient of -0.51, revealing an interesting feature of regional climate change with declining DWO and declining dust weather season over the Tarim Basin. The correlation analysis exhibits that all the Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation have a negative relation with the DWO but a positive relation with the length of dust weather season.

Semi-supervised tracking of extreme weather events in global spatio-temporal climate datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, S. K.; Prabhat, M.; Williams, D. N.

2017-12-01

Deep neural networks have been successfully applied to solve problem to detect extreme weather events in large scale climate datasets and attend superior performance that overshadows all previous hand-crafted methods. Recent work has shown that multichannel spatiotemporal encoder-decoder CNN architecture is able to localize events in semi-supervised bounding box. Motivated by this work, we propose new learning metric based on Variational Auto-Encoders (VAE) and Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) to track extreme weather events in spatio-temporal dataset. We consider spatio-temporal object tracking problems as learning probabilistic distribution of continuous latent features of auto-encoder using stochastic variational inference. For this, we assume that our datasets are i.i.d and latent features is able to be modeled by Gaussian distribution. In proposed metric, we first train VAE to generate approximate posterior given multichannel climate input with an extreme climate event at fixed time. Then, we predict bounding box, location and class of extreme climate events using convolutional layers given input concatenating three features including embedding, sampled mean and standard deviation. Lastly, we train LSTM with concatenated input to learn timely information of dataset by recurrently feeding output back to next time-step's input of VAE. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we show the first semi-supervised end-to-end architecture based on VAE to track extreme weather events which can apply to massive scaled unlabeled climate datasets. Second, the information of timely movement of events is considered for bounding box prediction using LSTM which can improve accuracy of localization. To our knowledge, this technique has not been explored neither in climate community or in Machine Learning community.

Development of a regional ensemble prediction method for probabilistic weather prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nohara, Daisuke; Tamura, Hidetoshi; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

2015-01-01

A regional ensemble prediction method has been developed to provide probabilistic weather prediction using a numerical weather prediction model. To obtain consistent perturbations with the synoptic weather pattern, both of initial and lateral boundary perturbations were given by differences between control and ensemble member of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)'s operational one-week ensemble forecast. The method provides a multiple ensemble member with a horizontal resolution of 15 km for 48-hour based on a downscaling of the JMA's operational global forecast accompanied with the perturbations. The ensemble prediction was examined in the case of heavy snow fall event in Kanto area on January 14, 2013. The results showed that the predictions represent different features of high-resolution spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation affected by intensity and location of extra-tropical cyclone in each ensemble member. Although the ensemble prediction has model bias of mean values and variances in some variables such as wind speed and solar radiation, the ensemble prediction has a potential to append a probabilistic information to a deterministic prediction. (author)

Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Program First Steps Toward Tribal Weatherization – Human Capacity Development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiita, Joanne

2013-07-30

The Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Project expanded weatherization services for tribal members’ homes in southeast Alaska while providing weatherization training and on the job training (OJT) for tribal citizens that lead to jobs and most probably careers in weatherization-related occupations. The program resulted in; (a) 80 Alaska Native citizens provided with skills training in five weatherization training units that were delivered in cooperation with University of Alaska Southeast, in accordance with the U.S. Department of Energy Core Competencies for Weatherization Training that prepared participants for employment in three weatherizationrelated occupations: Installer, Crew Chief, and Auditor; (b) 25 paid OJT training opportunities for trainees who successfully completed the training course; and (c) employed trained personnel that have begun to rehab on over 1,000 housing units for weatherization.

Recent Activities on the Embrace Space Weather Regional Warning Center: the New Space Weather Data Center

Science.gov (United States)

Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dal Lago, Alisson; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Takahashi, Hisao; Costa, D. Joaquim; Banik Padua, Marcelo; Campos Velho, Haroldo

2016-07-01

the ionospheric profiles in two equatorial sites and in two low latitude sites; (b) several solar radio telescopes to monitor solar activity (under development); (c) the matrix of the GNSS TEC map over South America; (d) the Embrace Airglow All-sky Imagers Network (Embrace GlowNet); and (d) the Embrace Magnetometer Network (Embrace Magnet), all of them in South America. Also, the system allows subscription to space weather alerts and reports. Contacting Author: C. M. Denardini (clezio.denardin@inpe.br)

Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

Science.gov (United States)

Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

2011-01-01

This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. (Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States)); Witherspoon, M.J. (National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States)); Brown, M.A. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States))

1992-05-01

This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy's national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. [Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States); Witherspoon, M.J. [National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States); Brown, M.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

1992-05-01

This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy`s national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

Space Weather- Physics and Effects

CERN Document Server

Bothmer, Volker

2007-01-01

This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

Energy, variability and weather finance engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Roussis, Dimitrios; Parara, Iliana; Gournari, Panagiota; Moustakis, Yiannis; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Karakatsanis, Georgios

2017-04-01

Most types of renewable energies are characterized by intense intermittency, causing significant instabilities to the grid; further requiring additional infrastructure (e.g. pumped-storage) for buffering hydrometeorological uncertainties, as well as complex operational rules for load balancing. In addition, most intermittent renewable units are subsidized, creating significant market inefficiencies. Weather derivatives comprise mature financial tools for integrating successfully the intermittent-load and base-load components into a unified hybrid energy system and establish their operation within a generalized uncertainty management market. With a growing global market share and 46% utilization of this financial tool by the energy industry and 12% by agriculture (that partially concerns biofuel resources), weather derivatives are projected to constitute a critical subsystem of many grids for buffering frequent hydrometeorological risks of low and medium impacts -which are not covered by standard insurance contracts that aim exclusively at extreme events and high financial damages. In this context, we study the attributes of hydrometeorological time series in a remote and small island in Greece, powered by an autonomous hybrid energy system. Upon the results we choose the optimal underlying index and we further compose and engineer a weather derivative with features of a typical option contract -which we consider most flexible and appropriate for the case- to test our assumptions on its beneficiary effects for both the budget of private energy producers and the island's public administration. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

Fabulous Weather Day

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Candice; Mogil, H. Michael

2007-01-01

Each year, first graders at Kensington Parkwood Elementary School in Kensington, Maryland, look forward to Fabulous Weather Day. Students learn how meteorologists collect data about the weather, how they study wind, temperature, precipitation, basic types/characteristics of clouds, and how they forecast. The project helps the students grow in…

Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

Science.gov (United States)

Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

2016-01-01

Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

A study on the weather sampling method for probabilistic consequence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Hae Cheol

1996-02-01

The main task of probabilistic accident consequence analysis model is to predict the radiological situation and to provide a reliable quantitative data base for making decisions on countermeasures. The magnitude of accident consequence is depended on the characteristic of the accident and the weather coincident. In probabilistic accident consequence analysis, it is necessary to repeat the atmospheric dispersion calculation with several hundreds of weather sequences to predict the full distribution of consequences which may occur following a postulated accident release. It is desirable to select a representative sample of weather sequences from a meteorological record which is typical of the area over which the released radionuclides will disperse and which spans a sufficiently long period. The selection process is done by means of sampling techniques from a full year of hourly weather data characteristic of the plant site. In this study, the proposed Weighted importance sampling method selects proportional to the each bin size to closely approximate the true frequency distribution of weather condition at the site. The Weighted importance sampling method results in substantially less sampling uncertainty than the previous technique. The proposed technique can result in improve confidence in risk estimates

The effect of weather on morphometric traits of juvenile cliff swallows

Science.gov (United States)

Roche, Erin A.; Brown, Mary Bomberger; Brown, Charles R.

2015-01-01

Episodes of food deprivation may change how nestling birds allocate energy to the growth of skeletal and feather morphological traits during development. Cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) are colonial, insectivorous birds that regularly experience brief periods of severe weather-induced food deprivation during the nesting season which may affect offspring development. We investigated how annual variation in timing of rearing and weather were associated with length of wing and tail, skeletal traits, and body mass in juvenile cliff swallows reared in southwestern Nebraska during 2001–2006. As predicted under conditions of food deprivation, nestling skeletal and feather measurements were generally smaller in cooler years. However, variability explained by weather was small, suggesting that morphometric traits of juvenile cliff swallows were not highly sensitive to weather conditions experienced during this study. Measurements of juvenile morphological traits were positively correlated with measurements taken as adults, meaning that any variation among juveniles in response to rearing conditions showed evidence of persisting into a bird’s first breeding season. Our results show that body size in this species is phenotypically plastic and influenced, in part, by weather variables.

Weatherization is a Hit in Michigan: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Michigan demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization Builds on Delaware's Innovative Past: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Delaware demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Scaling in nature: From DNA through heartbeats to weather

Science.gov (United States)

Havlin, S.; Buldyrev, S. V.; Bunde, A.; Goldberger, A. L.; Ivanov, P. Ch.; Peng, C.-K.; Stanley, H. E.

1999-12-01

The purpose of this talk is to describe some recent progress in applying scaling concepts to various systems in nature. We review several systems characterized by scaling laws such as DNA sequences, heartbeat rates and weather variations. We discuss the finding that the exponent α quantifying the scaling in DNA in smaller for coding than for noncoding sequences. We also discuss the application of fractal scaling analysis to the dynamics of heartbeat regulation, and report the recent finding that the scaling exponent α is smaller during sleep periods compared to wake periods. We also discuss the recent findings that suggest a universal scaling exponent characterizing the weather fluctuations.

Training Early Career Space Weather Researchers and other Space Weather Professionals at the CISM Space Weather Summer School

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, N. A.; Hughes, W.

2011-12-01

This talk will outline the organization of a summer school designed to introduce young professions to a sub-discipline of geophysics. Through out the 10 year life time of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) the CISM Team has offered a two week summer school that introduces new graduate students and other interested professional to the fundamentals of space weather. The curriculum covers basic concepts in space physics, the hazards of space weather, and the utility of computer models of the space environment. Graduate students attend from both inside and outside CISM, from all the sub-disciplines involved in space weather (solar, heliosphere, geomagnetic, and aeronomy), and from across the nation and around the world. In addition, between 1/4 and 1/3 of the participants each year are professionals involved in space weather in some way, such as: forecasters from NOAA and the Air Force, Air Force satellite program directors, NASA specialists involved in astronaut radiation safety, and representatives from industries affected by space weather. The summer school has adopted modern pedagogy that has been used successfully at the undergraduate level. A typical daily schedule involves three morning lectures followed by an afternoon lab session. During the morning lectures, student interaction is encouraged using "Timeout to Think" questions and peer instruction, along with question cards for students to ask follow up questions. During the afternoon labs students, working in groups of four, answer thought provoking questions using results from simulations and observation data from a variety of source. Through the interactions with each other and the instructors, as well as social interactions during the two weeks, students network and form bonds that will last them through out their careers. We believe that this summer school can be used as a model for summer schools in a wide variety of disciplines.

Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management; Powernext Weather, des indices de reference pour gerer le risque meteo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

Connecting the Pioneers, Current Leaders and the Nature and History of Space Weather with K-12 Classrooms and the General Public

Science.gov (United States)

Ng, C.; Thompson, B. J.; Cline, T.; Lewis, E.; Barbier, B.; Odenwald, S.; Spadaccini, J.; James, N.; Stephenson, B.; Davis, H. B.; Major, E. R.; Space Weather Living History

2011-12-01

The Space Weather Living History program will explore and share the breakthrough new science and captivating stories of space environments and space weather by interviewing space physics pioneers and leaders active from the International Geophysical Year (IGY) to the present. Our multi-mission project will capture, document and preserve the living history of space weather utilizing original historical materials (primary sources). The resulting products will allow us to tell the stories of those involved in interactive new media to address important STEM needs, inspire the next generation of explorers, and feature women as role models. The project is divided into several stages, and the first stage, which began in mid-2011, focuses on resource gathering. The goal is to capture not just anecdotes, but the careful analogies and insights of researchers and historians associated with the programs and events. The Space Weather Living History Program has a Scientific Advisory Board, and with the Board's input our team will determine the chronology, key researchers, events, missions and discoveries for interviews. Education activities will be designed to utilize autobiographies, newspapers, interviews, research reports, journal articles, conference proceedings, dissertations, websites, diaries, letters, and artworks. With the help of a multimedia firm, we will use some of these materials to develop an interactive timeline on the web, and as a downloadable application in a kiosk and on tablet computers. In summary, our project augments the existing historical records with education technologies, connect the pioneers, current leaders and the nature and history of space weather with K-12 classrooms and the general public, covering all areas of studies in Heliophysics. The project is supported by NASA award NNX11AJ61G.

Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov (United States)

Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

New weather depiction technology for night vision goggle (NVG) training: 3D virtual/augmented reality scene-weather-atmosphere-target simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Folaron, Michelle; Deacutis, Martin; Hegarty, Jennifer; Vollmerhausen, Richard; Schroeder, John; Colby, Frank P.

2007-04-01

US Navy and Marine Corps pilots receive Night Vision Goggle (NVG) training as part of their overall training to maintain the superiority of our forces. This training must incorporate realistic targets; backgrounds; and representative atmospheric and weather effects they may encounter under operational conditions. An approach for pilot NVG training is to use the Night Imaging and Threat Evaluation Laboratory (NITE Lab) concept. The NITE Labs utilize a 10' by 10' static terrain model equipped with both natural and cultural lighting that are used to demonstrate various illumination conditions, and visual phenomena which might be experienced when utilizing night vision goggles. With this technology, the military can safely, systematically, and reliably expose pilots to the large number of potentially dangerous environmental conditions that will be experienced in their NVG training flights. A previous SPIE presentation described our work for NAVAIR to add realistic atmospheric and weather effects to the NVG NITE Lab training facility using the NVG - WDT(Weather Depiction Technology) system (Colby, et al.). NVG -WDT consist of a high end multiprocessor server with weather simulation software, and several fixed and goggle mounted Heads Up Displays (HUDs). Atmospheric and weather effects are simulated using state-of-the-art computer codes such as the WRF (Weather Research μ Forecasting) model; and the US Air Force Research Laboratory MODTRAN radiative transport model. Imagery for a variety of natural and man-made obscurations (e.g. rain, clouds, snow, dust, smoke, chemical releases) are being calculated and injected into the scene observed through the NVG via the fixed and goggle mounted HUDs. This paper expands on the work described in the previous presentation and will describe the 3D Virtual/Augmented Reality Scene - Weather - Atmosphere - Target Simulation part of the NVG - WDT. The 3D virtual reality software is a complete simulation system to generate realistic

Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

Road weather information for travelers : improving road weather messages and dissemination methods.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Road Weather Management Program (RWMP) recently completed a study titled Human Factors Analysis of Road Weather Advisory and Control Information (Publication No. FHWAJPO- 10-053). The goal of the study was to...

National Convective Weather Diagnostic

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

Natural Weathering Exposure Station

Data.gov (United States)

Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Corps of Engineers' Treat Island Natural Weathering Exposure Station is a long-term natural weathering facility used to study concrete durability. Located on the...

Pilot's Automated Weather Support System (PAWSS) concepts demonstration project. Phase 1: Pilot's weather information requirements and implications for weather data systems design

Science.gov (United States)

Crabill, Norman L.; Dash, Ernie R.

1991-01-01

The weather information requirements for pilots and the deficiencies of the current aviation weather support system in meeting these requirements are defined. As the amount of data available to pilots increases significantly in the near future, expert system technology will be needed to assist pilots in assimilating that information. Some other desirable characteristics of an automation-assisted system for weather data acquisition, dissemination, and assimilation are also described.

The Research-to-Operations-to-Research Cycle at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center

Science.gov (United States)

Singer, H. J.

2017-12-01

The provision of actionable space weather products and services by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center relies on observations, models and scientific understanding of our dynamic space environment. It also depends on a deep understanding of the systems and capabilities that are vulnerable to space weather, as well as national and international partnerships that bring together resources, skills and applications to support space weather forecasters and customers. While these activities have been evolving over many years, in October 2015, with the release of the National Space Weather Strategy and National Space Weather Action Plan (NSWAP) by National Science and Technology Council in the Executive Office of the President, there is a new coordinated focus on ensuring the Nation is prepared to respond to and recover from severe space weather storms. One activity highlighted in the NSWAP is the Operations to Research (O2R) and Research to Operations (R2O) process. In this presentation we will focus on current R2O and O2R activities that advance our ability to serve those affected by space weather and give a vision for future programs. We will also provide examples of recent research results that lead to improved operational capabilities, lessons learned in the transition of research to operations, and challenges for both the science and operations communities.

Complex weathering in drylands: Implications of ‘stress’ history for rock debris breakdown and sediment release

Science.gov (United States)

Warke, P. A.

2007-03-01

Weathering studies have often sought to explain features in terms of a prevailing set of environmental conditions. However, it is clear that in most present-day hot desert regions, the surface rock debris has been exposed to a range of weathering environments and processes. These different weathering conditions can arise in two ways, either from the effects of long-term climate change acting on debris that remains relatively static within the landscape or through the spatial relocation of debris from high to low altitude. Consequently, each fragment of rock may contain a unique weathering-related legacy of damage and alteration — a legacy that may greatly influence its response to present-day weathering activity. Experiments are described in which blocks of limestone, sandstone, granite and basalt are given 'stress histories' by subjecting them to varying numbers of heating and freezing cycles as a form of pre-treatment. These imposed stress histories act as proxies for a weathering history. Some blocks were used in a laboratory salt weathering simulation study while others underwent a 2 year field exposure trial at high, mid and low altitude sites in Death Valley, California. Weight loss and ultrasonic pulse velocity measurements suggest that blocks with stress histories deteriorate more rapidly than unstressed samples of the same rock type exposed to the same environmental conditions. Laboratory data also indicate that the result of imposing a known 'weathering history' on samples by pre-stressing them is an increase in the amount of fine sediment released during salt weathering over a given period of time in comparison to unstressed samples.

Geochemical and mineralogical study of selected weathered samples from Olkiluoto site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindberg, A.

2009-02-01

Optical microscopy, chemical analyses and X-ray diffraction method were used to study the influence of weathering from 11 drill core samples from shallow depths (< 25 m). The samples, 4 to 22 cm in length were drilled from Olkiluoto study site, Eurajoki, and they represent the common rock types of local bedrock: mica gneiss, tonalitic and granodioritic gneiss. Two of the samples were macroscopically unweathered and 9 of them were remarkably altered. The alteration was shown as porosity, the abundance of chlorite instead of biotite and pink, unclear feldspars. Many samples also contained red-brown hematite and fractures, some of them coated with secondary minerals, even clay. Microscopically the most visible feature of weathering was the total alteration of plagioclase and cordierite to sericite. In many samples also biotite was richly altered to chlorite and opaque minerals. Microfractures were common and they were filled by hematite, kaolinite and fine-grained muscovite (sericite). Hematite was, in some cases, also largely replacing the weathered minerals, feldspars and cordierite. Chemical alteration was not clear, because the alteration of main minerals have produced secondary minerals with almost the same chemical composition without any reasonable depleting or enrichment of certain elements. X-ray diffraction determination of samples proved, that often plagioclase was replaced by mica and biotite by chlorite. In some cases the samples contained products of chemical weathering, kaolinite and smectite. (orig.)

Weather forecast

CERN Document Server

Courtier, P

1994-02-07

Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

Surface Weather Observations Hourly

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

Land Surface Weather Observations

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

Dynamic Routing of Aircraft in the Presence of Adverse Weather Using a POMDP Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Balaban, Edward; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Spirkovska, Lilly; Sankararaman, Shankar; Kulkarni, Chetan; Arnon, Tomer

2017-01-01

Each year weather-related airline delays result in hundreds of millions of dollars in additional fuel burn, maintenance, and lost revenue, not to mention passenger inconvenience. The current approaches for aircraft route planning in the presence of adverse weather still mainly rely on deterministic methods. In contrast, this work aims to deal with the problem using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) framework, which allows for reasoning over uncertainty (including uncertainty in weather evolution over time) and results in solutions that are more robust to disruptions. The POMDP-based decision support system is demonstrated on several scenarios involving convective weather cells and is benchmarked against a deterministic planning system with functionality similar to those currently in use or under development.

A Real-Time Offshore Weather Risk Advisory System

Science.gov (United States)

Jolivet, Samuel; Zemskyy, Pavlo; Mynampati, Kalyan; Babovic, Vladan

2015-04-01

Offshore oil and gas operations in South East Asia periodically face extended downtime due to unpredictable weather conditions, including squalls that are accompanied by strong winds, thunder, and heavy rains. This downtime results in financial losses. Hence, a real time weather risk advisory system is developed to provide the offshore Oil and Gas (O&G) industry specific weather warnings in support of safety and environment security. This system provides safe operating windows based on sensitivity of offshore operations to sea state. Information products for safety and security include area of squall occurrence for the next 24 hours, time before squall strike, and heavy sea state warning for the next 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. These are predicted using radar now-cast, high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Data Assimilation (DA). Radar based now-casting leverages the radar data to produce short term (up to 3 hours) predictions of severe weather events including squalls/thunderstorms. A sea state approximation is provided through developing a translational model based on these predictions to risk rank the sensitivity of operations. A high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF, an open source NWP model) is developed for offshore Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. This high resolution model is optimized and validated against the adaptation of temperate to tropical met-ocean parameterization. This locally specific parameters are calibrated against federated data to achieve a 24 hour forecast of high resolution Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). CAPE is being used as a proxy for the risk of squall occurrence. Spectral decomposition is used to blend the outputs of the now-cast and the forecast in order to assimilate near real time weather observations as an implementation of the integration of data sources. This system uses the now-cast for the first 3 hours and then the forecast prediction horizons of 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. The output is

Hillslope chemical weathering across Paraná, Brazil: A data mining-GIS hybrid approach

Science.gov (United States)

Iwashita, Fabio; Friedel, Michael J.; Filho, Carlos Roberto de Souza; Fraser, Stephen J.

2011-09-01

Self-organizing map (SOM) and geographic information system (GIS) models were used to investigate the nonlinear relationships associated with geochemical weathering processes at local (~100 km 2) and regional (~50,000 km 2) scales. The data set consisted of 1) 22 B-horizon soil variables: P, C, pH, Al, total acidity, Ca, Mg, K, total cation exchange capacity, sum of exchangeable bases, base saturation, Cu, Zn, Fe, B, S, Mn, gammaspectrometry (total count, potassium, thorium, and uranium) and magnetic susceptibility measures; and 2) six topographic variables: elevation, slope, aspect, hydrological accumulated flux, horizontal curvature and vertical curvature. It is characterized at 304 locations from a quasi-regular grid spaced about 24 km across the state of Paraná. This data base was split into two subsets: one for analysis and modeling (274 samples) and the other for validation (30 samples) purposes. The self-organizing map and clustering methods were used to identify and classify the relations among solid-phase chemical element concentrations and GIS derived topographic models. The correlation between elevation and k-means clusters related the relative position inside hydrologic macro basins, which was interpreted as an expression of the weathering process reaching a steady-state condition at the regional scale. Locally, the chemical element concentrations were related to the vertical curvature representing concave-convex hillslope features, where concave hillslopes with convergent flux tends to be a reducing environment and convex hillslopes with divergent flux, oxidizing environments. Stochastic cross validation demonstrated that the SOM produced unbiased classifications and quantified the relative amount of uncertainty in predictions. This work strengthens the hypothesis that, at B-horizon steady-state conditions, the terrain morphometry were linked with the soil geochemical weathering in a two-way dependent process: the topographic relief was a factor on

Hillslope chemical weathering across Paraná, Brazil: a data mining-GIS hybrid approach

Science.gov (United States)

Iwashita, Fabio; Friedel, Michael J.; Filho, Carlos Roberto de Souza; Fraser, Stephen J.

2011-01-01

Self-organizing map (SOM) and geographic information system (GIS) models were used to investigate the nonlinear relationships associated with geochemical weathering processes at local (~100 km2) and regional (~50,000 km2) scales. The data set consisted of 1) 22 B-horizon soil variables: P, C, pH, Al, total acidity, Ca, Mg, K, total cation exchange capacity, sum of exchangeable bases, base saturation, Cu, Zn, Fe, B, S, Mn, gammaspectrometry (total count, potassium, thorium, and uranium) and magnetic susceptibility measures; and 2) six topographic variables: elevation, slope, aspect, hydrological accumulated flux, horizontal curvature and vertical curvature. It is characterized at 304 locations from a quasi-regular grid spaced about 24 km across the state of Paraná. This data base was split into two subsets: one for analysis and modeling (274 samples) and the other for validation (30 samples) purposes. The self-organizing map and clustering methods were used to identify and classify the relations among solid-phase chemical element concentrations and GIS derived topographic models. The correlation between elevation and k-means clusters related the relative position inside hydrologic macro basins, which was interpreted as an expression of the weathering process reaching a steady-state condition at the regional scale. Locally, the chemical element concentrations were related to the vertical curvature representing concave–convex hillslope features, where concave hillslopes with convergent flux tends to be a reducing environment and convex hillslopes with divergent flux, oxidizing environments. Stochastic cross validation demonstrated that the SOM produced unbiased classifications and quantified the relative amount of uncertainty in predictions. This work strengthens the hypothesis that, at B-horizon steady-state conditions, the terrain morphometry were linked with the soil geochemical weathering in a two-way dependent process: the topographic relief was a factor on

Sun, weather, and climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herman, J.R.; Goldberg, R.A.

1985-01-01

The general field of sun-weather/climate relationships that is, apparent weather and climate responses to solar activity is introduced and theoretical and experimental suggestions for further research to identify and investigate the unknown casual mechanisms are provided. Topics of discussion include: (1) solar-related correlation factors and energy sources; (2) long-term climate trends; (3) short-term meteorological correlations; (4) miscellaneous obscuring influences; (5) physical processes and mechanisms; (6) recapitulation of sun-weather relationships; and (7) guidelines for experiments. 300 references

Epidemiological and Clinical Features of Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome in Japan, 2013-2014.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hirofumi Kato

Full Text Available Although severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS was first reported from Japan in 2013, the precise clinical features and the risk factors for SFTS have not been fully investigated in Japan. Ninety-six cases of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS were notified through the national surveillance system between April 2013 and September 2014 in Japan. All cases were from western Japan, and 82 cases (85% had an onset between April and August. A retrospective observational study of the notified SFTS cases was conducted to identify the clinical features and laboratory findings during the same period. Of 96 notified cases, 49 (51% were included in this study. Most case-patients were of advanced age (median age 78 years and were retired or unemployed, or farmers. These case-patients had a history of outdoor activity within 2 weeks before the onset of illness. The median serum C-reactive protein concentration was slightly elevated at admission. Fungal infections such as invasive aspergilosis were found in 10% of these case-patients. Hemophagocytosis was observed in 15 of the 18 case-patients (83% whose bone marrow samples were available. Fifteen cases were fatal, giving a case-fatality proportion of 31%. The proportion of neurological abnormalities and serum concentrations of lactate dehydrogenase and aspartate aminotransferase were significantly higher in the fatal cases than in the nonfatal cases during hospitalization. Appearance of neurological abnormality may be useful for predicting the prognosis in SFTS patients.

Epidemiological and Clinical Features of Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome in Japan, 2013-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Hirofumi; Yamagishi, Takuya; Shimada, Tomoe; Matsui, Tamano; Shimojima, Masayuki; Saijo, Masayuki; Oishi, Kazunori

2016-01-01

Although severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) was first reported from Japan in 2013, the precise clinical features and the risk factors for SFTS have not been fully investigated in Japan. Ninety-six cases of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) were notified through the national surveillance system between April 2013 and September 2014 in Japan. All cases were from western Japan, and 82 cases (85%) had an onset between April and August. A retrospective observational study of the notified SFTS cases was conducted to identify the clinical features and laboratory findings during the same period. Of 96 notified cases, 49 (51%) were included in this study. Most case-patients were of advanced age (median age 78 years) and were retired or unemployed, or farmers. These case-patients had a history of outdoor activity within 2 weeks before the onset of illness. The median serum C-reactive protein concentration was slightly elevated at admission. Fungal infections such as invasive aspergilosis were found in 10% of these case-patients. Hemophagocytosis was observed in 15 of the 18 case-patients (83%) whose bone marrow samples were available. Fifteen cases were fatal, giving a case-fatality proportion of 31%. The proportion of neurological abnormalities and serum concentrations of lactate dehydrogenase and aspartate aminotransferase were significantly higher in the fatal cases than in the nonfatal cases during hospitalization. Appearance of neurological abnormality may be useful for predicting the prognosis in SFTS patients.

"Share weather" : Design and evaluation of a new concept for sharing weather information

OpenAIRE

Elevant, Katarina

2013-01-01

Already centuries ago, humans had observed the weather in their everyday lives, seeking ways to understand, comprehend, and predict it. Until the present day, weather has had tremendous impacts on our lives and with climate change human civilizations as well. With new media technologies weather constitutes a part of the information services used by many residents of modern cities, people and businesses worldwide. The rise of Web 2.0, a cyberspace where individuals may connect and interact und...

Space Weather in Operation

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The “Space Weather in Operations” effort will provide on-demand and near-real time space weather event information to the Data Access Toolkit (DAT), which is the...

Spectral Polarimetric Features Analysis of Wind Turbine Clutter in Weather Radar

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yin, J.; Krasnov, O.A.; Unal, C.M.H.; Medagli, S.; Russchenberg, H.W.J.

2017-01-01

Wind turbine clutter has gradually become a concern for the radar community for its increasing size and quantity worldwide. Based on the S-band polarimetric Doppler PARSAX radar measurements, this paper demonstrates the micro-Doppler features and spectral-polarimetric characteristic of wind turbine

Taking Weatherization to New Heights in Colorado: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Colorado demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization is a Natural Choice for Montana: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Montana demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization is a Natural Choice for Montana: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D& R International

2001-10-10

Montana demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

Weatherization Sails on Maryland's Legacy of Innovation: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Maryland demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization Plays a Starring Role in Mississippi: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D& R International

2001-10-10

Mississippi demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

Weatherization Savings Takes Root in New Mexico: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

New Mexico demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Correlation between weather and incidence of selected ophthalmological diagnoses: a database analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kern C

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Christoph Kern, Karsten Kortüm, Michael Müller, Florian Raabe, Wolfgang Johann Mayer, Siegfried Priglinger, Thomas Christian Kreutzer University Eye Hospital Munich, Faculty of Medicine, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany Purpose: Our aim was to correlate the overall patient volume and the incidence of several ophthalmological diseases in our emergency department with weather data. Patients and methods: For data analysis, we used our clinical data warehouse and weather data. We investigated the weekly overall patient volume and the average weekly incidence of all encoded diagnoses of “conjunctivitis”, “foreign body”, “acute iridocyclitis”, and “corneal abrasion”. A Spearman’s correlation was performed to link these data with the weekly average sunshine duration, temperature, and wind speed. Results: We noticed increased patient volume in correlation with increasing sunshine duration and higher temperature. Moreover, we found a positive correlation between the weekly incidences of conjunctivitis and of foreign body and weather data. Conclusion: The results of this data analysis reveal the possible influence of external conditions on the health of a population and can be used for weather-dependent resource allocation. Keywords: corneal injury, trauma, uveitis, conjunctivitis, weather

Who is protecting tourists in New Zealand from severe weather hazards?: an exploration of the role of locus of responsibility in protective behaviour decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jeuring, Jelmer; Becken, Susanne

2011-01-01

Much of New Zealand's tourism industry is focused on 'the outdoors', capitalising on its natural environment and attractions. However, this 'product' makes New Zealand tourism vulnerable to environmental variability and disturbances, including the weather. As a consequence, New Zealand weather has a

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2010-06-01

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

2015-12-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

Patterns of impact in the weatherization assistance program: A closer look

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berry, L.G.; Brown, M.A.

1994-06-01

In 1990, the US Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a nationwide evaluation of the Weatherization Program. The second phase of the Single-Family Study, which is the subject of this report, is part of this coordinated evaluation effort. In the first chapter the goals and overall design of the study are presented. Chapter 2 discussed methodology, the sample selection process, and data collection procedures. The following chapters (3, 4, and 5) compare the four sets of comparison groups. In Chapter 3, the results of extensive descriptions and measurements of dwelling characteristics, and of blower door, heating system efficiency, and carbon monoxide (CO) tests are compared for control, weatherized, and treated dwellings. In Chapter 4, characteristics of weatherized dwellings with especially high versus those with especially low energy savings are examined. Dwelling characteristic, the presence and amounts of specific weatherization measures, and occupant characteristics and behaviors are examined as factors that may explain variations in energy savings. Chapter 5 presents comparisons of pairs of higher- versus lower-savings agencies in each of several climate regions. These comparison examined differences in housing stocks, service delivery procedures, weatherization measures installed, and allocation of agency funds. The focus here is on the identification of more and less effective weatherization practices and of promising future directions for the Program. This report adds to the earlier one by comparing the practices of lower-savings agencies with those of the higher-saving ones. Chapter 6 compares occupant perceptions of comfort, health, safety, and energy affordability for the weatherized versus control group clients, for the high- versus low-saving dwellings, and the higher-versus lower-saving agencies. Chapter 7 summarizes this study`s findings and presents recommendations.

New Technologies for Weather Accident Prevention

Science.gov (United States)

Stough, H. Paul, III; Watson, James F., Jr.; Daniels, Taumi S.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.; Jarrell, Michael A.; Bogue, Rodney K.

2005-01-01

Weather is a causal factor in thirty percent of all aviation accidents. Many of these accidents are due to a lack of weather situation awareness by pilots in flight. Improving the strategic and tactical weather information available and its presentation to pilots in flight can enhance weather situation awareness and enable avoidance of adverse conditions. This paper presents technologies for airborne detection, dissemination and display of weather information developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), industry and the research community. These technologies, currently in the initial stages of implementation by industry, will provide more precise and timely knowledge of the weather and enable pilots in flight to make decisions that result in safer and more efficient operations.

Insurance against weather risk : use of heating degree-days from non-local stations for weather derivatives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.

2003-01-01

Weather derivatives enable policy-holders to safeguard themselves against extreme weather conditions. The effectiveness and the efficiency of the risk transfer is determined by the spatial risk basis, which is the stochastic dependency of the local weather outcome being insured and the outcome of

Space Weather Effects Produced by the Ring Current Particles

Science.gov (United States)

Ganushkina, Natalia; Jaynes, Allison; Liemohn, Michael

2017-11-01

One of the definitions of space weather describes it as the time-varying space environment that may be hazardous to technological systems in space and/or on the ground and/or endanger human health or life. The ring current has its contributions to space weather effects, both in terms of particles, ions and electrons, which constitute it, and magnetic and electric fields produced and modified by it at the ground and in space. We address the main aspects of the space weather effects from the ring current starting with brief review of ring current discovery and physical processes and the Dst-index and predictions of the ring current and storm occurrence based on it. Special attention is paid to the effects on satellites produced by the ring current electrons. The ring current is responsible for several processes in the other inner magnetosphere populations, such as the plasmasphere and radiation belts which is also described. Finally, we discuss the ring current influence on the ionosphere and the generation of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC).

The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Li-Wei

2017-09-01

The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma?

Science.gov (United States)

... English Español Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? KidsHealth / For Parents / Can the Weather Affect My ... Asthma? Print Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? Yes. Weather conditions can bring on asthma symptoms. ...

Different clinical features of anaphylaxis according to cause and risk factors for severe reactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sang-Yoon; Kim, Min-Hye; Cho, Young-Joo

2018-01-01

Anaphylaxis is a life-threatening allergic reaction. Several studies reported different anaphylactic reactions according to the causative substances. However, a comparison of anaphylaxis for each cause has not been done. This study was conducted to identify common causes of anaphylaxis, characteristics of anaphylactic reaction for each cause and to analyze the factors related to the severity of the reaction. Medical records of patients who visited the emergency room of Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital from March 2003 to April 2016 and diagnosed with anaphylactic shock were retrospectively reviewed. We compared the clinical features of anaphylaxis according to the cause. In addition, the severity of anaphylaxis was analyzed and contributing factors for severe anaphylaxis were reviewed. A total of 199 patients with anaphylaxis were analyzed. Food was the most common cause (49.7%), followed by drug reaction (36.2%), bee venom (10.1%), and unknown cause (4.0%). Cardiovascular symptoms of syncope and hypotension were more common in drug-induced anaphylaxis. The incidence of severe anaphylaxis was the highest in anaphylaxis due to drugs (54.2%). Urticaria and other skin symptoms were significantly more common in food-induced anaphylaxis. Risk factors for severe anaphylaxis included older age, male, and drug-induced one. Epinephrine treatment of anaphylaxis was done for 69.7% and 56.9% of patients with food-induced and drug-induced anaphylaxis, respectively. More severe anaphylaxis developed with drug treatment and in males. Low rate of epinephrine prescription was also observed. Male patients with drug induced anaphylaxis should be paid more attention. Copyright © 2017 Japanese Society of Allergology. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global comparison reveals biogenic weathering as driven by nutrient limitation at ecosystem scale

Science.gov (United States)

Boy, Jens; Godoy, Roberto; Dechene, Annika; Shibistova, Olga; Amir, Hamid; Iskandar, Issi; Fogliano, Bruno; Boy, Diana; McCulloch, Robert; Andrino, Alberto; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Marin, Cesar; Sauheitl, Leopold; Dultz, Stefan; Mikutta, Robert; Guggenberger, Georg

2017-04-01

A substantial contribution of biogenic weathering in ecosystem nutrition, especially by symbiotic microorganisms, has often been proposed, but large-scale in vivo studies are still missing. Here we compare a set of ecosystems spanning from the Antarctic to tropical forests for their potential biogenic weathering and its drivers. To address biogenic weathering rates, we installed mineral mesocosms only accessible for bacteria and fungi for up to 4 years, which contained freshly broken and defined nutrient-baring minerals in soil A horizons of ecosystems along a gradient of soil development differing in climate and plant species communities. Alterations of the buried minerals were analyzed by grid-intersection, confocal lascer scanning microscopy, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy on the surface and on thin sections. On selected sites, carbon fluxes were tracked by 13C labeling, and microbial community was identified by DNA sequencing. In young ecosystems (protosoils) biogenic weathering is almost absent and starts after first carbon accumulation by aeolian (later litter) inputs and is mainly performed by bacteria. With ongoing soil development and appearance of symbiotic (mycorrhized) plants, nutrient availability in soil increasingly drove biogenic weathering, and fungi became the far more important players than bacteria. We found a close relation between fungal biogenic weathering and available potassium across all 16 forested sites in the study, regardless of the dominant mycorrhiza type (AM or EM), climate, and plant-species composition. We conclude that nutrient limitations at ecosystem scale are generally counteracted by adapted fungal biogenic weathering. The close relation between fungal weathering and plant-available nutrients over a large range of severely contrasting ecosystems points towards a direct energetic support of these weathering processes by the photoautotrophic community, making biogenic weathering a

The Weather and Ménière's Disease: A Longitudinal Analysis in the UK.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Wiebke; Sarran, Christophe; Ronan, Natalie; Barrett, George; Whinney, David J; Fleming, Lora E; Osborne, Nicholas J; Tyrrell, Jessica

2017-02-01

Changes in the weather influence symptom severity in Ménière's disease (MD). MD is an unpredictable condition that significantly impacts on quality of life. It is suggested that fluctuations in the weather, especially atmospheric pressure may influence the symptoms of MD. However, to date, limited research has investigated the impact of the weather on MD. In a longitudinal study, a mobile phone application collected data from 397 individuals (277 females and 120 males with an average age of 50 yr) from the UK reporting consultant-diagnosed MD. Daily symptoms (vertigo, aural fullness, tinnitus, hearing loss, and attack prevalence) and GPS locations were collected; these data were linked with Met Office weather data (including atmospheric pressure, humidity, temperature, visibility, and wind speed). Symptom severity and attack prevalence were reduced on days when atmospheric pressure was higher. When atmospheric pressure was below 1,013 hectopascals, the risk of an attack was 1.30 (95% confidence interval: 1.10, 1.54); when the humidity was above 90%, the risk of an attack was 1.26 (95% confidence interval 1.06, 1.49). This study provides the strongest evidence to date that changes in atmospheric pressure and humidity are associated with symptom exacerbation in MD. Improving our understanding of the role of weather and other environmental triggers in Ménière's may reduce the uncertainty associated with living with this condition, significantly contributing to improved quality of life.

The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

2016-04-01

In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

Constraining storm-scale forecasts of deep convective initiation with surface weather observations

Science.gov (United States)

Madaus, Luke

Successfully forecasting when and where individual convective storms will form remains an elusive goal for short-term numerical weather prediction. In this dissertation, the convective initiation (CI) challenge is considered as a problem of insufficiently resolved initial conditions and dense surface weather observations are explored as a possible solution. To better quantify convective-scale surface variability in numerical simulations of discrete convective initiation, idealized ensemble simulations of a variety of environments where CI occurs in response to boundary-layer processes are examined. Coherent features 1-2 hours prior to CI are found in all surface fields examined. While some features were broadly expected, such as positive temperature anomalies and convergent winds, negative temperature anomalies due to cloud shadowing are the largest surface anomaly seen prior to CI. Based on these simulations, several hypotheses about the required characteristics of a surface observing network to constrain CI forecasts are developed. Principally, these suggest that observation spacings of less than 4---5 km would be required, based on correlation length scales. Furthermore, it is anticipated that 2-m temperature and 10-m wind observations would likely be more relevant for effectively constraining variability than surface pressure or 2-m moisture observations based on the magnitudes of observed anomalies relative to observation error. These hypotheses are tested with a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using a single CI-capable environment. The OSSE results largely confirm the hypotheses, and with 4-km and particularly 1-km surface observation spacing, skillful forecasts of CI are possible, but only within two hours of CI time. Several facets of convective-scale assimilation, including the need for properly-calibrated localization and problems from non-Gaussian ensemble estimates of the cloud field are discussed. Finally, the characteristics

Implementation of 5-layer thermal diffusion scheme in weather research and forecasting model with Intel Many Integrated Cores

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Melin; Huang, Bormin; Huang, Allen H.

2014-10-01

For weather forecasting and research, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been developed, consisting of several components such as dynamic solvers and physical simulation modules. WRF includes several Land- Surface Models (LSMs). The LSMs use atmospheric information, the radiative and precipitation forcing from the surface layer scheme, the radiation scheme, and the microphysics/convective scheme all together with the land's state variables and land-surface properties, to provide heat and moisture fluxes over land and sea-ice points. The WRF 5-layer thermal diffusion simulation is an LSM based on the MM5 5-layer soil temperature model with an energy budget that includes radiation, sensible, and latent heat flux. The WRF LSMs are very suitable for massively parallel computation as there are no interactions among horizontal grid points. The features, efficient parallelization and vectorization essentials, of Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC) architecture allow us to optimize this WRF 5-layer thermal diffusion scheme. In this work, we present the results of the computing performance on this scheme with Intel MIC architecture. Our results show that the MIC-based optimization improved the performance of the first version of multi-threaded code on Xeon Phi 5110P by a factor of 2.1x. Accordingly, the same CPU-based optimizations improved the performance on Intel Xeon E5- 2603 by a factor of 1.6x as compared to the first version of multi-threaded code.

Regional severe particle pollution and its association with synoptic weather patterns in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Science.gov (United States)

Shu, Lei; Xie, Min; Gao, Da; Wang, Tijian; Fang, Dexian; Liu, Qian; Huang, Anning; Peng, Liwen

2017-11-01

Regional air pollution is significantly associated with dominant weather systems. In this study, the relationship between the particle pollution over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region and weather patterns is investigated. First, the pollution characteristics of particles in the YRD are studied using in situ monitoring data (PM2.5 and PM10) in 16 cities and Terra/MODIS AOD (aerosol optical depth) products collected from December 2013 to November 2014. The results show that the regional mean value of AOD is high in the YRD, with an annual mean value of 0.71±0.57. The annual mean particle concentrations in the cities of Jiangsu Province all exceed the national air quality standard. The pollution level is higher in inland areas, and the highest concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 are 79 and 130 µg m-3, respectively, in Nanjing. The PM2.5 : PM10 ratios are typically high, thus indicating that PM2.5 is the overwhelmingly dominant particle pollutant in the YRD. The wintertime peak of particle concentrations is tightly linked to the increased emissions during the heating season as well as adverse meteorological conditions. Second, based on NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data, synoptic weather classification is conducted and five typical synoptic patterns are objectively identified. Finally, the synthetic analysis of meteorological fields and backward trajectories are applied to further clarify how these patterns impact particle concentrations. It is demonstrated that air pollution is more or less influenced by high-pressure systems. The relative position of the YRD to the anti-cyclonic circulation exerts significant effects on the air quality of the YRD. The YRD is largely influenced by polluted air masses from the northern and the southern inland areas when it is located at the rear of the East Asian major trough. The significant downward motion of air masses results in stable weather conditions, thereby hindering the diffusion of air

Engaging Earth- and Environmental-Science Undergraduates Through Weather Discussions and an eLearning Weather Forecasting Contest

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, David M.; Anderson, Stuart; Seo-Zindy, Ryo

2013-06-01

For students who major in meteorology, engaging in weather forecasting can motivate learning, develop critical-thinking skills, improve their written communication, and yield better forecasts. Whether such advances apply to students who are not meteorology majors has been less demonstrated. To test this idea, a weather discussion and an eLearning weather forecasting contest were devised for a meteorology course taken by third-year undergraduate earth- and environmental-science students. The discussion consisted of using the recent, present, and future weather to amplify the topics of the week's lectures. Then, students forecasted the next day's high temperature and the probability of precipitation for Woodford, the closest official observing site to Manchester, UK. The contest ran for 10 weeks, and the students received credit for participation. The top students at the end of the contest received bonus points on their final grade. A Web-based forecast contest application was developed to register the students, receive their forecasts, and calculate weekly standings. Students who were successful in the forecast contest were not necessarily those who achieved the highest scores on the tests, demonstrating that the contest was possibly testing different skills than traditional learning. Student evaluations indicate that the weather discussion and contest were reasonably successful in engaging students to learn about the weather outside of the classroom, synthesize their knowledge from the lectures, and improve their practical understanding of the weather. Therefore, students taking a meteorology class, but not majoring in meteorology, can derive academic benefits from weather discussions and forecast contests. Nevertheless, student evaluations also indicate that better integration of the lectures, weather discussions, and the forecasting contests is necessary.

Associations between speech features and phenotypic severity in Treacher Collins syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Asten, Pamela; Akre, Harriet; Persson, Christina

2014-04-28

Treacher Collins syndrome (TCS, OMIM 154500) is a rare congenital disorder of craniofacial development. Characteristic hypoplastic malformations of the ears, zygomatic arch, mandible and pharynx have been described in detail. However, reports on the impact of these malformations on speech are few. Exploring speech features and investigating if speech function is related to phenotypic severity are essential for optimizing follow-up and treatment. Articulation, nasal resonance, voice and intelligibility were examined in 19 individuals (5-74 years, median 34 years) divided into three groups comprising children 5-10 years (n = 4), adolescents 11-18 years (n = 4) and adults 29 years and older (n = 11). A speech composite score (0-6) was calculated to reflect the variability of speech deviations. TCS severity scores of phenotypic expression and total scores of Nordic Orofacial Test-Screening (NOT-S) measuring orofacial dysfunction were used in analyses of correlation with speech characteristics (speech composite scores). Children and adolescents presented with significantly higher speech composite scores (median 4, range 1-6) than adults (median 1, range 0-5). Nearly all children and adolescents (6/8) displayed speech deviations of articulation, nasal resonance and voice, while only three adults were identified with multiple speech aberrations. The variability of speech dysfunction in TCS was exhibited by individual combinations of speech deviations in 13/19 participants. The speech composite scores correlated with TCS severity scores and NOT-S total scores. Speech composite scores higher than 4 were associated with cleft palate. The percent of intelligible words in connected speech was significantly lower in children and adolescents (median 77%, range 31-99) than in adults (98%, range 93-100). Intelligibility of speech among the children was markedly inconsistent and clearly affecting the understandability. Multiple speech deviations were identified in

Post-fire vegetation and fuel development influences fire severity patterns in reburns.

Science.gov (United States)

Coppoletta, Michelle; Merriam, Kyle E; Collins, Brandon M

2016-04-01

In areas where fire regimes and forest structure have been dramatically altered, there is increasing concern that contemporary fires have the potential to set forests on a positive feedback trajectory with successive reburns, one in which extensive stand-replacing fire could promote more stand-replacing fire. Our study utilized an extensive set of field plots established following four fires that occurred between 2000 and 2010 in the northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA that were subsequently reburned in 2012. The information obtained from these field plots allowed for a unique set of analyses investigating the effect of vegetation, fuels, topography, fire weather, and forest management on reburn severity. We also examined the influence of initial fire severity and time since initial fire on influential predictors of reburn severity. Our results suggest that high- to moderate-severity fire in the initial fires led to an increase in standing snags and shrub vegetation, which in combination with severe fire weather promoted high-severity fire effects in the subsequent reburn. Although fire behavior is largely driven by weather, our study demonstrates that post-fire vegetation composition and structure are also important drivers of reburn severity. In the face of changing climatic regimes and increases in extreme fire weather, these results may provide managers with options to create more fire-resilient ecosystems. In areas where frequent high-severity fire is undesirable, management activities such as thinning, prescribed fire, or managed wildland fire can be used to moderate fire behavior not only prior to initial fires, but also before subsequent reburns.

Data mining and gap analysis for weather responsive traffic management studies.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-12-01

Weather causes a variety of impacts on the transportation system. An Oak Ridge National Laboratory study estimated the : delay experienced by American drivers due to snow, ice, and fog in 1999 at 46 million hours. While severe winter storms, : hurric...

Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

1980-08-01

In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

OpenAIRE

Piotr Binkowski

2008-01-01

The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europ...

Method for consequence calculations for severe accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nielsen, F.; Thykier-Nielsen, S.; Walmod-Larsen, O.

1986-08-01

This report was commissioned by the Swedish State Power Board, who wanted a method for calculation of radiation doses in the surroundings of nuclear power plants caused by severe accidents. The PLUCON4 code were used for the calculations. A TC-SV-accident at Ringhals 1 wer chosen as example. A transient without shutdown leads to core meltdown through the reactor vessel. The pressure peak at the moment of vessel failure opens a safety valve in the dry well. Meteorolgical data for two years from the Ringhals meteorological tower were analysed to find representative weather situations. As typical weather were chosen Pasquill D with wind speed 8 m/s, and as extreme weather were chosen Pasquill F with wind speed 4.8 m/s. (author)

The RMI Space Weather and Navigation Systems (SWANS) Project

Science.gov (United States)

Warnant, Rene; Lejeune, Sandrine; Wautelet, Gilles; Spits, Justine; Stegen, Koen; Stankov, Stan

The SWANS (Space Weather and Navigation Systems) research and development project (http://swans.meteo.be) is an initiative of the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) under the auspices of the Belgian Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE). The RMI SWANS objectives are: research on space weather and its effects on GNSS applications; permanent mon-itoring of the local/regional geomagnetic and ionospheric activity; and development/operation of relevant nowcast, forecast, and alert services to help professional GNSS/GALILEO users in mitigating space weather effects. Several SWANS developments have already been implemented and available for use. The K-LOGIC (Local Operational Geomagnetic Index K Calculation) system is a nowcast system based on a fully automated computer procedure for real-time digital magnetogram data acquisition, data screening, and calculating the local geomagnetic K index. Simultaneously, the planetary Kp index is estimated from solar wind measurements, thus adding to the service reliability and providing forecast capabilities as well. A novel hybrid empirical model, based on these ground-and space-based observations, has been implemented for nowcasting and forecasting the geomagnetic index, issuing also alerts whenever storm-level activity is indicated. A very important feature of the nowcast/forecast system is the strict control on the data input and processing, allowing for an immediate assessment of the output quality. The purpose of the LIEDR (Local Ionospheric Electron Density Reconstruction) system is to acquire and process data from simultaneous ground-based GNSS TEC and digital ionosonde measurements, and subsequently to deduce the vertical electron density distribution. A key module is the real-time estimation of the ionospheric slab thickness, offering additional infor-mation on the local ionospheric dynamics. The RTK (Real Time Kinematic) status mapping provides a quick look at the small-scale ionospheric effects on the RTK

Weatherization in Arkansas: A Gem of a Program: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Arkansas demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piotr Binkowski

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europe. Constructing weather derivatives relies on qu- antifying climate factors in the form of indexes, what is quite simple task, more difficultly can be gathering precise historical data of required climate factors. Taking into consideration so far development of derivatives especially the financial derivatives based on different types of indexes financial market has at disposal wide range of different types of proved derivatives (futures, forward, options, swaps, which can be successfully utilised on the weather-driven markets both for hedging weather risk and speculating.

Communicating and managing change during extreme weather events: promising practices for responding to urgent and emergent climate threats.

Science.gov (United States)

Tinker, Tim L

2013-01-01

Large-scale weather events in the USA such as hurricanes Sandy, Isaac and Katrina challenge traditional approaches to change communication and management (CCM) before during and after crises. A major challenge (as well as opportunity) is addressing change from the 'whole-community' perspective affecting a spectrum of people, policies, processes, behaviours and outcomes. When CCM is used effectively, one of its fundamental advantages is creating a sense of urgency. This paper looks at optimising communication during extreme weather events, engaging stakeholders, harnessing the power of social media and change, and correlating organisational and individual behaviours and actions. The strategic blend of change management and crisis communication strategies and tactics in CCM is a central feature in the response to the full range of extreme weather scenarios.

KSC Weather and Research

Science.gov (United States)

Maier, Launa; Huddleston, Lisa; Smith, Kristin

2016-01-01

This briefing outlines the history of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Weather organization, past research sponsored or performed, current organization, responsibilities, and activities, the evolution of weather support, future technologies, and an update on the status of the buoys located offshore of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and KSC.

Weather and road capacity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Thomas Christian

2014-01-01

The paper presents estimations of the effect of bad weather on the observed speed on a Danish highway section; Køge Bugt Motorvejen. The paper concludes that weather, primarily precipitation and snow, has a clear negative effect on speed when the road is not in hypercongestion mode. Furthermore...

Tales of future weather

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hazeleger, W.; Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Min, E.; Van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.

2015-01-01

Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The

Data Mining Methods to Generate Severe Wind Gust Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subana Shanmuganathan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Gaining knowledge on weather patterns, trends and the influence of their extremes on various crop production yields and quality continues to be a quest by scientists, agriculturists, and managers. Precise and timely information aids decision-making, which is widely accepted as intrinsically necessary for increased production and improved quality. Studies in this research domain, especially those related to data mining and interpretation are being carried out by the authors and their colleagues. Some of this work that relates to data definition, description, analysis, and modelling is described in this paper. This includes studies that have evaluated extreme dry/wet weather events against reported yield at different scales in general. They indicate the effects of weather extremes such as prolonged high temperatures, heavy rainfall, and severe wind gusts. Occurrences of these events are among the main weather extremes that impact on many crops worldwide. Wind gusts are difficult to anticipate due to their rapid manifestation and yet can have catastrophic effects on crops and buildings. This paper examines the use of data mining methods to reveal patterns in the weather conditions, such as time of the day, month of the year, wind direction, speed, and severity using a data set from a single location. Case study data is used to provide examples of how the methods used can elicit meaningful information and depict it in a fashion usable for management decision making. Historical weather data acquired between 2008 and 2012 has been used for this study from telemetry devices installed in a vineyard in the north of New Zealand. The results show that using data mining techniques and the local weather conditions, such as relative pressure, temperature, wind direction and speed recorded at irregular intervals, can produce new knowledge relating to wind gust patterns for vineyard management decision making.

49 CFR 195.224 - Welding: Weather.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Welding: Weather. 195.224 Section 195.224 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY... PIPELINE Construction § 195.224 Welding: Weather. Welding must be protected from weather conditions that...

The Spirit of North Dakota: Alive in Weatherization; Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

North Dakota demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

A Tribute to Weatherization Solutions in South Dakota: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

South Dakota demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Integrating Sphere-based Weathering Device

Data.gov (United States)

Federal Laboratory Consortium — Description:In the artificial ultraviolet (UV) weathering of materials, a need exists for weathering devices that can uniformly illuminate test specimens with a high...

Modeling extreme (Carrington-type) space weather events using three-dimensional MHD code simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Ngwira, C. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Glocer, A.

2013-12-01

There is growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure and systems. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made towards the modeling of space weather events. Three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, and have played a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for existing global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events that have a ground footprint comparable (or larger) to the Carrington superstorm. Results are presented for an initial simulation run with ``very extreme'' constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated ground induced geoelectric field to such extreme driving conditions. We also discuss the results and what they might mean for the accuracy of the simulations. The model is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in earth conductors such as power transmission grids.

Accelerated laboratory weathering of acrylic lens materials

Science.gov (United States)

Arndt, Thomas; Richter, Steffen; Kogler, René; Pasierb, Mike; Walby, Christopher

2015-09-01

Flat samples from various poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) formulations were subjected to outdoor weathering in Arizona and Florida, EMMAQUA® accelerated outdoor weathering, and two accelerated laboratory weathering procedures at 3 Sun irradiance which, imitate dry (Arizona) and wet (Florida) conditions. The main mode of degradation is yellowing and not the generation of haze for any weathering procedure within the investigated radiant exposure. Higher UV absorber concentrations lead to smaller changes in optical properties and in the resulting relative concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) module efficiencies. Comparison of sample properties after various weathering procedures reveals that the influence of weathering factors other than radiant exposure depends on the sample as well.

36 CFR 910.71 - Weather protection.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Weather protection. 910.71 Section 910.71 Parks, Forests, and Public Property PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION GENERAL... DEVELOPMENT AREA Glossary of Terms § 910.71 Weather protection. Weather protection means a seasonal or...

Validation and deployment of the first Lidar based weather observation network in New York State: The NYS MesoNet Project

Science.gov (United States)

Thobois, L.; Freedman, J.; Royer, P.; Brotzge, J.; Joseph, E.

2018-04-01

The number and quality of atmospheric observations used by meteorologists and operational forecasters are increasing year after year, and yet, consistent improvements in forecast skill remains a challenge. While contributing factors involving these challenges have been identified, including the difficulty in accurately establishing initial conditions, improving the observations at regional and local scales is necessary for accurate depiction of the atmospheric boundary layer (below 2km), particularly the wind profile, in high resolution numerical models. Above the uncertainty of weather forecasts, the goal is also to improve the detection of severe and extreme weather events (severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and other mesoscale phenomena) that can adversely affect life, property and commerce, primarily in densely populated urban centers. This paper will describe the New York State Mesonet that is being deployed in the state of New York, USA. It is composed of 126 stations including 17 profiler sites. These sites will acquire continuous upper air observations through the combination of WINDCUBE Lidars and microwave radiometers. These stations will provide temperature, relative humidity & "3D" wind profile measurements through and above the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and will retrieve derived atmospheric quantities such as the PBL height, cloud base, momentum fluxes, and aerosol & cloud optical properties. The different modes and configurations that will be used for the Lidars are discussed. The performances in terms of data availability and wind accuracy and precision are evaluated. Several profiles with specific wind and aerosol features are presented to illustrate the benefits of the use of Coherent Doppler Lidars to monitor accurately the PBL.

Risk of Fall-Related Injury due to Adverse Weather Events, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2006-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Gevitz, Kathryn; Madera, Robbie; Newbern, Claire; Lojo, José; Johnson, Caroline C

Following a surge in fall-related visits to local hospital emergency departments (EDs) after a severe ice storm, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health examined the association between inclement winter weather events and fall-related ED visits during a 5-year period. Using a standardized set of keywords, we identified fall-related injuries in ED chief complaint logs submitted as part of Philadelphia Department of Public Health's syndromic surveillance from December 2006 through March 2011. We compared days when falls exceeded the winter fall threshold (ie, "high-fall days") with control days within the same winter season. We then conducted matched case-control analysis to identify weather and patient characteristics related to increased fall-related ED visits. Fifteen high-fall days occurred during winter months in the 5-year period. In multivariable analysis, 18- to 64-year-olds were twice as likely to receive ED care for fall-related injuries on high-fall days than on control days. The crude odds of ED visits occurring from 7:00 am to 10:59 am were 70% higher on high-fall days vs control days. Snow was a predictor of a high-fall day: the adjusted odds of snow before a high-fall day as compared with snow before a control day was 13.4. The association between the number of fall-related ED visits and weather-related fall injuries, age, and timing suggests that many events occurred en route to work in the morning. Promoting work closures or delaying openings after severe winter weather would allow time for better snow or ice removal, and including "fall risk" in winter weather advisories might effectively warn morning commuters. Both strategies could help reduce the number of weather-related fall injuries.

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LDIS was developed by NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features

Epidemiological and Clinical Features of Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome in Japan, 2013–2014

Science.gov (United States)

Shimada, Tomoe; Matsui, Tamano; Shimojima, Masayuki; Saijo, Masayuki; Oishi, Kazunori

2016-01-01

Although severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) was first reported from Japan in 2013, the precise clinical features and the risk factors for SFTS have not been fully investigated in Japan. Ninety-six cases of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) were notified through the national surveillance system between April 2013 and September 2014 in Japan. All cases were from western Japan, and 82 cases (85%) had an onset between April and August. A retrospective observational study of the notified SFTS cases was conducted to identify the clinical features and laboratory findings during the same period. Of 96 notified cases, 49 (51%) were included in this study. Most case-patients were of advanced age (median age 78 years) and were retired or unemployed, or farmers. These case-patients had a history of outdoor activity within 2 weeks before the onset of illness. The median serum C-reactive protein concentration was slightly elevated at admission. Fungal infections such as invasive aspergilosis were found in 10% of these case-patients. Hemophagocytosis was observed in 15 of the 18 case-patients (83%) whose bone marrow samples were available. Fifteen cases were fatal, giving a case-fatality proportion of 31%. The proportion of neurological abnormalities and serum concentrations of lactate dehydrogenase and aspartate aminotransferase were significantly higher in the fatal cases than in the nonfatal cases during hospitalization. Appearance of neurological abnormality may be useful for predicting the prognosis in SFTS patients. PMID:27776187

North America Synoptic Weather Maps

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Maps contains a surface analysis comprised of plotted weather station observations, isobars indicating low and high-pressure...

Weather Risk Management in Agriculture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martina Bobriková

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The paper focuses on valuation of a weather derivative with payoffs depending on temperature. We use historical data from the weather station in the Slovak town Košice to obtain unique prices of option contracts in an incomplete market. Numerical examples of prices of some contracts are presented, using the Burn analysis. We provide an example of how a weather contract can be designed to hedge the financial risk of a suboptimal temperature condition. The comparative comparison of the selected option hedging strategies has shown the best results for the producers in agricultural industries who hedges against an unfavourable weather conditions. The results of analysis proved that by buying put option or call option, the farmer establishes the highest payoff in the case of temperature decrease or increase. The Long Straddle Strategy is the most expensive but is available to the farmer who hedges against a high volatility in temperature movement. We conclude with the findings that weather derivatives could be useful tools to diminish the financial losses for agricultural industries highly dependent for temperature.

Assessing and Adapting Scientific Results for Space Weather Research to Operations (R2O)

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, B. J.; Friedl, L.; Halford, A. J.; Mays, M. L.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Singer, H. J.; Stehr, J. W.

2017-12-01

Why doesn't a solid scientific paper necessarily result in a tangible improvement in space weather capability? A well-known challenge in space weather forecasting is investing effort to turn the results of basic scientific research into operational knowledge. This process is commonly known as "Research to Operations," abbreviated R2O. There are several aspects of this process: 1) How relevant is the scientific result to a particular space weather process? 2) If fully utilized, how much will that result improve the reliability of the forecast for the associated process? 3) How much effort will this transition require? Is it already in a relatively usable form, or will it require a great deal of adaptation? 4) How much burden will be placed on forecasters? Is it "plug-and-play" or will it require effort to operate? 5) How can robust space weather forecasting identify challenges for new research? This presentation will cover several approaches that have potential utility in assessing scientific results for use in space weather research. The demonstration of utility is the first step, relating to the establishment of metrics to ensure that there will be a clear benefit to the end user. The presentation will then move to means of determining cost vs. benefit, (where cost involves the full effort required to transition the science to forecasting, and benefit concerns the improvement of forecast reliability), and conclude with a discussion of the role of end users and forecasters in driving further innovation via "O2R."

Geography and Weather: Mountain Meterology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mogil, H. Michael; Collins, H. Thomas

1990-01-01

Provided are 26 ideas to help children explore the effects of mountains on the weather. Weather conditions in Nepal and Colorado are considered separately. Nine additional sources of information are listed. (CW)

Seasonality in trauma admissions - Are daylight and weather variables better predictors than general cyclic effects?

Science.gov (United States)

Røislien, Jo; Søvik, Signe; Eken, Torsten

2018-01-01

Trauma is a leading global cause of death, and predicting the burden of trauma admissions is vital for good planning of trauma care. Seasonality in trauma admissions has been found in several studies. Seasonal fluctuations in daylight hours, temperature and weather affect social and cultural practices but also individual neuroendocrine rhythms that may ultimately modify behaviour and potentially predispose to trauma. The aim of the present study was to explore to what extent the observed seasonality in daily trauma admissions could be explained by changes in daylight and weather variables throughout the year. Retrospective registry study on trauma admissions in the 10-year period 2001-2010 at Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Norway, where the amount of daylight varies from less than 6 hours to almost 19 hours per day throughout the year. Daily number of admissions was analysed by fitting non-linear Poisson time series regression models, simultaneously adjusting for several layers of temporal patterns, including a non-linear long-term trend and both seasonal and weekly cyclic effects. Five daylight and weather variables were explored, including hours of daylight and amount of precipitation. Models were compared using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). A regression model including daylight and weather variables significantly outperformed a traditional seasonality model in terms of AIC. A cyclic week effect was significant in all models. Daylight and weather variables are better predictors of seasonality in daily trauma admissions than mere information on day-of-year.

The Weather and Ménière’s Disease: A Longitudinal Analysis in the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Wiebke; Sarran, Christophe; Ronan, Natalie; Barrett, George; Whinney, David J.; Fleming, Lora E.; Osborne, Nicholas J.; Tyrrell, Jessica

2016-01-01

Hypothesis Changes in the weather influence symptom severity in Ménière’s disease (MD). Background MD is an unpredictable condition that significantly impacts on quality of life. It is suggested that fluctuations in the weather, especially atmospheric pressure may influence the symptoms of MD. However, to date, limited research has investigated the impact of the weather on MD. Methods In a longitudinal study, a mobile phone application collected data from 397 individuals (277 females and 120 males with an average age of 50 yr) from the UK reporting consultant-diagnosed MD. Daily symptoms (vertigo, aural fullness, tinnitus, hearing loss, and attack prevalence) and GPS locations were collected; these data were linked with Met Office weather data (including atmospheric pressure, humidity, temperature, visibility, and wind speed). Results Symptom severity and attack prevalence were reduced on days when atmospheric pressure was higher. When atmospheric pressure was below 1,013 hectopascals, the risk of an attack was 1.30 (95% confidence interval: 1.10, 1.54); when the humidity was above 90%, the risk of an attack was 1.26 (95% confidence interval 1.06, 1.49). Conclusion This study provides the strongest evidence to date that changes in atmospheric pressure and humidity are associated with symptom exacerbation in MD. Improving our understanding of the role of weather and other environmental triggers in Ménière’s may reduce the uncertainty associated with living with this condition, significantly contributing to improved quality of life. PMID:27861300

Using Artificial Intelligence to Inform Pilots of Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.

2006-01-01

An automated system to assist a General Aviation (GA) pilot in improving situational awareness of weather in flight is now undergoing development. This development is prompted by the observation that most fatal GA accidents are attributable to loss of weather awareness. Loss of weather awareness, in turn, has been attributed to the difficulty of interpreting traditional preflight weather briefings and the difficulty of both obtaining and interpreting traditional in-flight weather briefings. The developmental automated system not only improves weather awareness but also substantially reduces the time a pilot must spend in acquiring and maintaining weather awareness.

Using Satellite Remote Sensing to Assist the National Weather Service (NWS) in Storm Damage Surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Lori A.; Molthan, Andrew; McGrath, Kevin; Bell, Jordan; Cole, Tony; Burks, Jason

2016-01-01

In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) is charged with performing damage assessments when storm or tornado damage is suspected after a severe weather event. This has led to the development of the Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT), an application for smartphones, tablets and web browsers that allows for the collection, geolocation, and aggregation of various damage indicators collected during storm surveys.

Effects of Weather on Tourism and its Moderation

Science.gov (United States)

Park, J. H.; Kim, S.; Lee, D. K.

2016-12-01

Tourism is weather sensitive industry (Gómez Martín, 2005). As climate change has been intensifying, the concerns about negative effects of weather on tourism also have been increasing. This study attempted to find ways that mitigate the negative effects from weather on tourism, by analyzing a path of the effects of weather on intention to revisit and its moderation. The data of the study were collected by a self-recording online questionnaire survey of South Korean domestic tourists during August 2015, and 2,412 samples were gathered. A path model of effects of weather on intention to revisit that including moderating effects from physical attraction satisfaction and service satisfaction was ran. Season was controlled in the path model. The model fit was adequate (CMIN/DF=2.372(p=.000), CFI=.974, RMSEA=.024, SRMR=0.040), and the Model Comparison, which assumes that the base model to be correct with season constrained model, showed that there was a seasonal differences in the model ( DF=24, CMIN=32.430, P=.117). By the analysis, it was figured out that weather and weather expectation affected weather satisfaction, and the weather satisfaction affected intention to revisit (spring/fall: .167**, summer: .104**, and winter: .114**). Meanwhile physical attraction satisfaction (.200**), and service satisfaction (.210**) of tourism positively moderated weather satisfaction in summer, and weather satisfaction positively moderated physical attraction (.238**) satisfaction and service satisfaction (.339**). In other words, in summer, dissatisfaction from hot weather was moderated by satisfaction from physical attractions and services, and in spring/fall, comfort weather conditions promoted tourists to accept tourism experience and be satisfied from attractions and services positively. Based on the result, it was expected that if industries focus on offering the good attractions and services based on weather conditions, there would be positive effects to alleviate tourists

Weathering behavior of mine tailings and waste rock: A surface investigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Domvile, S.J.; Li, M.G.; Sollner, D.D.; Nesbitt, W.

1994-01-01

A study focusing on the ion movement in the near surface of sulfide minerals was conducted to better understand the weathering mechanisms of mine waste materials. Tailings and waste rock samples from Canadian mines were subjected to controlled weathering studies using various chemical leachants. Leachates were analyzed for various parameters, and petrographic analyses were conducted on the solid residues. Laboratory oxidation studies of pure pyrrhotite and arsenopyrite were carried out using the surface techniques X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and auger electron spectroscopy (AES). The data derived from the weathering study and the surface techniques were correlated to determine mechanisms of oxidation. Several results were observed during the project: ferric iron constitutes one third of the iron present in pyrrhotite, sulfide oxidation is initiated when rock is blasted, sulfide sulfur is oxidized to di- and poly-sulfides prior to forming sulfates, and significantly more sulfate is produced upon exposure to aqueous environments than to air alone

Designing a Weather Station

Science.gov (United States)

Roman, Harry T.

2012-01-01

The collection and analysis of weather data is crucial to the location of alternate energy systems like solar and wind. This article presents a design challenge that gives students a chance to design a weather station to collect data in advance of a large wind turbine installation. Data analysis is a crucial part of any science or engineering…

Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States); MacDonald, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

1997-12-31

The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

Spotter's Guide for Identifying and Reporting Severe Local Storms.

Science.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (DOC), Rockville, MD.

This guide is designed to assist personnel working in the National Weather Service's Severe Local Storm Spotter Networks in identifying and reporting severe local storms. Provided are pictures of cloud types for severe storms including tornadoes, hail, thunder, lightning, heavy rains, and waterspouts. Instructions for key indications to watch for…

ASSIMILATION OF DOPPLER RADAR DATA INTO NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chiswell, S.; Buckley, R.

2009-01-15

During the year 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) completed an eight fold increase in sampling capability for weather radars to 250 m resolution. This increase is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current NWS operational model domains utilize grid spacing an order of magnitude larger than the radar data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of radar reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution was investigated under a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) 'quick hit' grant to determine the impact of improved data resolution on model predictions with specific initial proof of concept application to daily Savannah River Site operations and emergency response. Development of software to process NWS radar reflectivity and radial velocity data was undertaken for assimilation of observations into numerical models. Data values within the radar data volume undergo automated quality control (QC) analysis routines developed in support of this project to eliminate empty/missing data points, decrease anomalous propagation values, and determine error thresholds by utilizing the calculated variances among data values. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) three dimensional variational data assimilation package (WRF-3DVAR) was used to incorporate the QC'ed radar data into input and boundary conditions. The lack of observational data in the vicinity of SRS available to NWS operational models signifies an important data void where radar observations can provide significant input. These observations greatly enhance the knowledge of storm structures and the environmental conditions which influence their development. As the increase in computational power and availability has

Modeling Silicate Weathering for Elevated CO2 and Temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Bolton, E. W.

2016-12-01

A reactive transport model (RTM) is used to assess CO2 drawdown by silicate weathering over a wide range of temperature, pCO2, and infiltration rates for basalts and granites. Although RTM's have been used extensively to model weathering of basalts and granites for present-day conditions, we extend such modeling to higher CO2 that could have existed during the Archean and Proterozoic. We also consider a wide range of surface temperatures and infiltration rates. We consider several model basalt and granite compositions. We normally impose CO2 in equilibrium with the various atmospheric ranges modeled and CO2 is delivered to the weathering zone by aqueous transport. We also consider models with fixed CO2 (aq) throughout the weathering zone as could occur in soils with partial water saturation or with plant respiration, which can strongly influence pH and mineral dissolution rates. For the modeling, we use Kinflow: a model developed at Yale that includes mineral dissolution and precipitation under kinetic control, aqueous speciation, surface erosion, dynamic porosity, permeability, and mineral surface areas via sub-grid-scale grain models, and exchange of volatiles at the surface. Most of the modeling is done in 1D, but some comparisons to 2D domains with heterogeneous permeability are made. We find that when CO2 is fixed only at the surface, the pH tends toward higher values for basalts than granites, in large part due to the presence of more divalent than monovalent cations in the primary minerals, tending to decrease rates of mineral dissolution. Weathering rates increase (as expected) with increasing CO2 and temperature. This modeling is done with the support of the Virtual Planetary Laboratory.

Laboratory weathering of combusted oil shale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Essington, M.E.

1991-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine the mineralogy and leachate chemistry of three combusted oil shales (two Green River Formation and one New Albany) in a laboratory weathering environment using the humidity cell technique. The mineralogy of the combusted western oil shales (Green River Formation) is process dependent. In general, processing resulted in the formation of anhydrite, lime, periclase, and hematite. During the initial stages of weathering, lime, periclase, and hematite. During the initial stages of weathering, lime, periclase, and anhydrite dissolve and ettringite precipitates. The initial leachates are highly alkaline, saline, and dominated by Na, hydroxide, and SO 4 . As weathering continues, ettringite precipitates. The initial leachates are highly alkaline, saline, and dominated by Na, hydroxide, and SO 4 . As weathering continues, ettringite dissolves, gypsum and calcite precipitate, and the leachates are dominated by Mg, SO 4 , and CO 3 . Leachate pH is rapidly reduced to between 8.5 and 9 with leaching. The combusted eastern oil shale (New Albany) is composed of quartz, illite, hematite, and orthoclase. Weathering results in the precipitation of gypsum. The combusted eastern oil shale did not display a potential to produce acid drainage. Leachate chemistry was dominated by Ca and SO 4 . Element concentrations continually decreased with weathering. IN a western disposal environment receiving minimal atmospheric precipitation, spent oil shale will remain in the initial stages of weathering, and highly alkaline and saline conditions will dominate leachate chemistry. In an eastern disposal environment, soluble salts will be rapidly removed from the spent oil shale to potentially affect the surrounding environment

Decision aids for multiple-decision disease management as affected by weather input errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfender, W F; Gent, D H; Mahaffee, W F; Coop, L B; Fox, A D

2011-06-01

Many disease management decision support systems (DSSs) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation, or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and management decision recommendations. The extent to which errors in weather inputs affect the quality of the final management outcome depends on a number of aspects of the disease management context, including whether management consists of a single dichotomous decision, or of a multi-decision process extending over the cropping season(s). Decision aids for multi-decision disease management typically are based on simple or complex algorithms of weather data which may be accumulated over several days or weeks. It is difficult to quantify accuracy of multi-decision DSSs due to temporally overlapping disease events, existence of more than one solution to optimizing the outcome, opportunities to take later recourse to modify earlier decisions, and the ongoing, complex decision process in which the DSS is only one component. One approach to assessing importance of weather input errors is to conduct an error analysis in which the DSS outcome from high-quality weather data is compared with that from weather data with various levels of bias and/or variance from the original data. We illustrate this analytical approach for two types of DSS, an infection risk index for hop powdery mildew and a simulation model for grass stem rust. Further exploration of analysis methods is needed to address problems associated with assessing uncertainty in multi-decision DSSs.

Portable Weather Applications for General Aviation Pilots.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahlstrom, Ulf; Ohneiser, Oliver; Caddigan, Eamon

2016-09-01

The objective of this study was to examine the potential benefits and impact on pilot behavior from the use of portable weather applications. Seventy general aviation (GA) pilots participated in the study. Each pilot was randomly assigned to an experimental or a control group and flew a simulated single-engine GA aircraft, initially under visual meteorological conditions (VMC). The experimental group was equipped with a portable weather application during flight. We recorded measures for weather situation awareness (WSA), decision making, cognitive engagement, and distance from the aircraft to hazardous weather. We found positive effects from the use of the portable weather application, with an increased WSA for the experimental group, which resulted in credibly larger route deviations and credibly greater distances to hazardous weather (≥30 dBZ cells) compared with the control group. Nevertheless, both groups flew less than 20 statute miles from hazardous weather cells, thus failing to follow current weather-avoidance guidelines. We also found a credibly higher cognitive engagement (prefrontal oxygenation levels) for the experimental group, possibly reflecting increased flight planning and decision making on the part of the pilots. Overall, the study outcome supports our hypothesis that portable weather displays can be used without degrading pilot performance on safety-related flight tasks, actions, and decisions as measured within the constraints of the present study. However, it also shows that an increased WSA does not automatically translate to enhanced flight behavior. The study outcome contributes to our knowledge of the effect of portable weather applications on pilot behavior and decision making. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Internet-accessible real-time weather information system

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Desai, R.G.P.; Joseph, A.; Desa, E.; Mehra, P.; Desa, E.; Gouveia, A.D.

An internet-accessible real-time weather information system has been developed. This system provides real-time accessibility to weather information from a multitude of spatially distributed weather stations. The Internet connectivity also offers...

Directable weathering of concave rock using curvature estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Michael D; Farley, McKay; Butler, Joseph; Beardall, Matthew

2010-01-01

We address the problem of directable weathering of exposed concave rock for use in computer-generated animation or games. Previous weathering models that admit concave surfaces are computationally inefficient and difficult to control. In nature, the spheroidal and cavernous weathering rates depend on the surface curvature. Spheroidal weathering is fastest in areas with large positive mean curvature and cavernous weathering is fastest in areas with large negative mean curvature. We simulate both processes using an approximation of mean curvature on a voxel grid. Both weathering rates are also influenced by rock durability. The user controls rock durability by editing a durability graph before and during weathering simulation. Simulations of rockfall and colluvium deposition further improve realism. The profile of the final weathered rock matches the shape of the durability graph up to the effects of weathering and colluvium deposition. We demonstrate the top-down directability and visual plausibility of the resulting model through a series of screenshots and rendered images. The results include the weathering of a cube into a sphere and of a sheltered inside corner into a cavern as predicted by the underlying geomorphological models.

Detection of Weather Radar Clutter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bøvith, Thomas

2008-01-01

classification and use a range of different techniques and input data. The first method uses external information from multispectral satellite images to detect clutter. The information in the visual, near-infrared, and infrared parts of the spectrum can be used to distinguish between cloud and cloud-free areas......Weather radars provide valuable information on precipitation in the atmosphere but due to the way radars work, not only precipitation is observed by the weather radar. Weather radar clutter, echoes from non-precipitating targets, occur frequently in the data, resulting in lowered data quality....... Especially in the application of weather radar data in quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting a high data quality is important. Clutter detection is one of the key components in achieving this goal. This thesis presents three methods for detection of clutter. The methods use supervised...

Probability for Weather and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, L. A.

2013-12-01

decision making versus advance science, are noted. It is argued that, just as no point forecast is complete without an estimate of its accuracy, no model-based probability forecast is complete without an estimate of its own irrelevance. The same nonlinearities that made the electronic computer so valuable links the selection and assimilation of observations, the formation of ensembles, the evolution of models, the casting of model simulations back into observables, and the presentation of this information to those who use it to take action or to advance science. Timescales of interest exceed the lifetime of a climate model and the career of a climate scientist, disarming the trichotomy that lead to swift advances in weather forecasting. Providing credible, informative climate services is a more difficult task. In this context, the value of comparing the forecasts of simulation models not only with each other but also with the performance of simple empirical models, whenever possible, is stressed. The credibility of meteorology is based on its ability to forecast and explain the weather. The credibility of climatology will always be based on flimsier stuff. Solid insights of climate science may be obscured if the severe limits on our ability to see the details of the future even probabilistically are not communicated clearly.

The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar

2002-01-01

The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

Impacts of Weather Shocks on Murder and Drug Cartel Violence in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Miguel, E.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.; Gonzalez, F.; Baysan, C.

2014-12-01

We estimate impacts of weather shocks on several dimensions of violence in Mexico during 1990-2010, using disaggregated data at the state-by-month level. Controlling for location and time fixed effects, we show that higher than normal temperatures lead to: (i) higher total murder rates, (ii) higher rates of drug cartel related murders, and (iii) higher suicide rates. The effects of high temperatures on inter-personal violence (murders) and on inter-group violence (drug cartel related murders) are large, statistically significant and similar to those found in other recent settings. The use of panel data econometric methods to examine the effect of weather on suicide incidence is novel. We assess the role of economic channels (i.e., agricultural production affected by weather) and conclude that they cannot account for most of the estimated impacts, suggesting that other mechanisms, including psychological explanations, are likely to be important in this setting.

Distribution of trichloroethylene and selected aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons between ''weathered'' and ''unweathered'' fuel mixtures and groundwater: Equilibrium and kinetic considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doucette, W.J.; Dupont, R.R.

1995-01-01

The distribution of trichloroethylene and several aliphatic and aromatic fuel components between 46 weathered and 11 unweathered fuel mixtures and groundwater was investigated using a slow stirring method. The weathered fuel mixtures were obtained from several contaminated field sites. Both unlabeled and 14C-labeled test compounds were used in the distribution experiments. Analyses of the test compound concentrations over time was performed by gas chromatograph or liquid scintillation counting. The time required to reach equilibrium varied from about 24 to 72 hours. Generally, the greater the hydrophobicity of the test compounds the longer time that was required to reach equilibrium. It was also observed that the fuel/water distribution coefficients were generally larger for the weathered fuels than those measured for the unweathered fuels, in some cases by a factor of 100. The weathered fuel mixtures obtained from the field site were depleted of the more water soluble compounds over time and became significantly more enriched in long chain aliphatic hydrocarbons. The ability of several models to describe the observed distribution behavior was examined

Mobility of rare earth element in hydrothermal process and weathering product: a review

Science.gov (United States)

Lintjewas, L.; Setiawan, I.

2018-02-01

The Rare Earth Element (REE), consists of La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Pm, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Lu, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, are important elements to be used as raw materials of advanced technology such as semiconductors, magnets, and lasers. The research of REE in Indonesia has not been done. Several researches were conducted on granitic rocks and weathering product such as Bangka, Sibolga, West Kalimantan, West Sulawesi and Papua. REE can be formed by hydrothermal processes such as Bayan Obo, South China. The REE study on active hydrothermal system (geothermal) in this case also has the potential to produce mineral deposits. The purpose of this review paper is to know the mobility of REE on hydrothermal process and weathering products. Mobility of REE in the hydrothermal process can change the distribution patterns and REE content such as Ce, Eu, La, Lu, Nd, Sm, and Y. Another process besides the hydrothermal is weathering process. REE mobility is influenced by weathering products, where the REE will experience residual and secondary enrichment processes in heavier minerals.

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

Carbon dioxide efficiency of terrestrial enhanced weathering.

Science.gov (United States)

Moosdorf, Nils; Renforth, Phil; Hartmann, Jens

2014-05-06

Terrestrial enhanced weathering, the spreading of ultramafic silicate rock flour to enhance natural weathering rates, has been suggested as part of a strategy to reduce global atmospheric CO2 levels. We budget potential CO2 sequestration against associated CO2 emissions to assess the net CO2 removal of terrestrial enhanced weathering. We combine global spatial data sets of potential source rocks, transport networks, and application areas with associated CO2 emissions in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The results show that the choice of source rocks and material comminution technique dominate the CO2 efficiency of enhanced weathering. CO2 emissions from transport amount to on average 0.5-3% of potentially sequestered CO2. The emissions of material mining and application are negligible. After accounting for all emissions, 0.5-1.0 t CO2 can be sequestered on average per tonne of rock, translating into a unit cost from 1.6 to 9.9 GJ per tonne CO2 sequestered by enhanced weathering. However, to control or reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations substantially with enhanced weathering would require very large amounts of rock. Before enhanced weathering could be applied on large scales, more research is needed to assess weathering rates, potential side effects, social acceptability, and mechanisms of governance.

Relation between childhood maltreatment and severe intrafamilial male-perpetrated physical violence in Chinese community: the mediating role of borderline and antisocial personality disorder features.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Na; Zhang, Yalin; Brady, Heward John; Cao, Yuping; He, Ying; Zhang, Yingli

2012-01-01

This study investigates the role of borderline personality disorder (BPD) and antisocial personality disorder (ASPD) features as mediators of the effects of childhood maltreatment on severe intrafamilial physical violence amongst Chinese male perpetrators. A cross-sectional survey and face-to-face interview were conducted to examine childhood maltreatment, personality disorder features, impulsivity, aggression, and severe intrafamilial physical violence in a community sample of 206 abusive men in China. The results suggest that ASPD or BPD features mediate between childhood maltreatment and intimate partner violence perpetration in Chinese abusive men. These findings may yield clinical and forensic implications for assessing the psychopathology of abusive men, and may steer the intervention of intimate partner violence. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cost-Loss Analysis of Ensemble Solar Wind Forecasting: Space Weather Use of Terrestrial Weather Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Henley, E. M.; Pope, E. C. D.

2017-12-01

This commentary concerns recent work on solar wind forecasting by Owens and Riley (2017). The approach taken makes effective use of tools commonly used in terrestrial weather—notably, via use of a simple model—generation of an "ensemble" forecast, and application of a "cost-loss" analysis to the resulting probabilistic information, to explore the benefit of this forecast to users with different risk appetites. This commentary aims to highlight these useful techniques to the wider space weather audience and to briefly discuss the general context of application of terrestrial weather approaches to space weather.

Automated Irrigation System using Weather Prediction for Efficient Usage of Water Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Susmitha, A.; Alakananda, T.; Apoorva, M. L.; Ramesh, T. K.

2017-08-01

In agriculture the major problem which farmers face is the water scarcity, so to improve the usage of water one of the irrigation system using drip irrigation which is implemented is “Automated irrigation system with partition facility for effective irrigation of small scale farms” (AISPF). But this method has some drawbacks which can be improved and here we are with a method called “Automated irrigation system using weather prediction for efficient usage of water resources’ (AISWP), it solves the shortcomings of AISPF process. AISWP method helps us to use the available water resources more efficiently by sensing the moisture present in the soil and apart from that it is actually predicting the weather by sensing two parameters temperature and humidity thereby processing the measured values through an algorithm and releasing the water accordingly which is an added feature of AISWP so that water can be efficiently used.

Federal Aviation Administration weather program to improve aviation safety

Science.gov (United States)

Wedan, R. W.

1983-01-01

The implementation of the National Airspace System (NAS) will improve safety services to aviation. These services include collision avoidance, improved landing systems and better weather data acquisition and dissemination. The program to improve the quality of weather information includes the following: Radar Remote Weather Display System; Flight Service Automation System; Automatic Weather Observation System; Center Weather Processor, and Next Generation Weather Radar Development.

Weatherization Works--Summary of Findings from the Retrospective Evaluation of the U.S. DOE's Weatherization Assistance Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, Bruce Edward [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Carroll, David [APPRISE, Inc., Princeton, NJ (United States); Pigg, Scott [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Blasnik, Michael [Blasnik & Associates, Roslindale, MA (United States); Dalhoff, Greg [Dalhoff & Associates, Verona, WI (United States); Berger, Jacqueline [APPRISE, Inc., Princeton, NJ (United States); Rose, Erin M [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hawkins, Beth A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Eisenberg, Joel Fred [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ucar, Ferit [APPRISE, Inc., Princeton, NJ (United States); Bensch, Ingo [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Cowan, Claire [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

2015-10-01

This report presents a summary of the studies and analyses that compose the retrospective evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy s low-income Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). WAP provides grants to Grantees (i.e., states) that then provide grants to Subgrantees (i.e., local weatherization agencies) to weatherize low-income homes. This evaluation focused on the WAP Program Year 2008. The retrospective evaluation produced twenty separate reports, including this summary. Four separate reports address the energy savings, energy cost savings, and cost effectiveness of WAP across four housing types: single family, mobile home, small multifamily, and large multifamily. Other reports address the environmental emissions, macroeconomic, and health and household-related benefits attributable to WAP, and characterize the program, its recipients, and those eligible for the program. Major field studies are also summarized, including a major indoor air quality study and a follow-up ventilation study, an in-depth in-field assessment of weatherization work and quality, and a study that assesses reasons for variations in energy savings across homes. Results of surveys of weatherization staff, occupants, occupants satisfaction with weatherization services provided, and weatherization trainees are summarized. Lastly, this report summarizes a set of fifteen case studies of high-performing and unique local weatherization agencies.

An Investigation of Non-Thesis Master's Program Geography Teacher Candidates' Attitudes towards Teaching Profession regarding Several Socio-Cultural Features

Science.gov (United States)

Sezer, Adem; Kara, Hasan; Pinar, Adnan

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the attitudes of non-thesis master's degree program: geography teacher candidates towards teaching profession regarding several socio-cultural features. The study was conducted in different universities with 218 geography teacher candidates enrolled in the geography education non-thesis master's degree…

Mechanisms for chemostatic behavior in catchments: implications for CO2 consumption by mineral weathering

Science.gov (United States)

Clow, David W.; Mast, M. Alisa

2010-01-01

Concentrations of weathering products in streams often show relatively little variation compared to changes in discharge, both at event and annual scales. In this study, several hypothesized mechanisms for this “chemostatic behavior” were evaluated, and the potential for those mechanisms to influence relations between climate, weathering fluxes, and CO2 consumption via mineral weathering was assessed. Data from Loch Vale, an alpine catchment in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, indicates that cation exchange and seasonal precipitation and dissolution of amorphous or poorly crystalline aluminosilicates are important processes that help regulate solute concentrations in the stream; however, those processes have no direct effect on CO2 consumption in catchments. Hydrograph separation analyses indicate that old water stored in the subsurface over the winter accounts for about one-quarter of annual streamflow, and almost one-half of annual fluxes of Na and SiO2 in the stream; thus, flushing of old water by new water (snowmelt) is an important component of chemostatic behavior. Hydrologic flushing of subsurface materials further induces chemostatic behavior by reducing mineral saturation indices and increasing reactive mineral surface area, which stimulate mineral weathering rates. CO2 consumption by carbonic acid mediated mineral weathering was quantified using mass-balance calculations; results indicated that silicate mineral weathering was responsible for approximately two-thirds of annual CO2 consumption, and carbonate weathering was responsible for the remaining one-third. CO2 consumption was strongly dependent on annual precipitation and temperature; these relations were captured in a simple statistical model that accounted for 71% of the annual variation in CO2 consumption via mineral weathering in Loch Vale.

Using Music to Communicate Weather and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, P.; Aplin, K. L.; Brown, S.

2017-12-01

Depictions of weather and other atmospheric phenomena are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This presentation will discuss the frequencies with which different weather types have been depicted in music over time, covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. Beginning with classical orchestral music, we find that composers were generally influenced by their own country's climate in the type of weather they chose to represent. Depictions of weather vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. Pieces depicting stormy weather tend to be in minor keys, whereas pieces depicting fair weather tend to be in major keys. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Moving onto modern popular music, we have identified and analyzed over 750 songs referring to different weather types. We find that lyrical references to bad weather peaked in songs written during the stormy 1950s and 60s, when there were many hurricanes, before declining in the relatively calm 1970s and 80s. This finding again suggests a causal link between song-writers' meteorological environments and compositional outputs. Composers and song-writers have a unique ability to emotionally connect their listeners to the environment. This ability could be exploited to communicate environmental science to a broader audience. Our work provides a catalogue of cultural responses to weather before (and during the early stages of) climate change. The effects of global warming may influence musical expression in future, in which case our work will provide a baseline for comparison.

Use of Imaging Spectroscopy for Mapping and Quantifying the Weathering Degree of Tropical Soils in Central Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baptista, G.M.M.; Meneses, P.R.; Correa, R.S.; Dos Santos, P.F.; Correa, R.S.; Jose, S.; Dos Santos, P.F.; Netto, M.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to test the feasibility of applying AVIRIS sensor (Airborne Visible/Infra Red Imaging Spectrometer) for mapping and quantifying mineralogical components of three Brazilian soils, a reddish Oxisol in Sao Joao D'Alianca area (SJA) and a dark reddish brown Oxisol and Ultisol in Niquelandia (NIQ) counties, Goias State. The study applied the spectral index RCGb [kaolinite/(kaolinite + gibbsite) ratio] and was based on spectral absorption features of these two minerals.The RCGb index was developed for the evaluation of weathering degrees of various Brazilian soils and was validated by the analysis of soil samples spectra imaged by AVIRIS and checked against laboratory mineralogical quantification (TGA:Thermal Gravimetric Analysis). Results showed to be possible mapping and quantifying the weathering degree of the studied soils and that the two selected areas presented different weathering degrees of their soils even for a same soil type.

Chromium isotope fractionation during oxidative weathering of a modern basaltic weathering profile

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

D'Arcy, Joan Mary; Døssing, Lasse Nørbye; Frei, Robert

Chromium can be used as a tracer of redox sensitive environmental processes. In soils Cr (III) is inert, immobile and resides predominantly in minerals, clays and oxides. Cr (VI) is toxic, soluble and mobile and is usually lost from the soil to local run off. Chromium isotopes have been shown...... to fractionate under both reducing and oxidizing conditions [1, 2]. Recent studies on d53Cr isotopes in laterite soils show that oxidative weathering of Cr-bearing rocks is accompanied by an isotopic fractionation, where by the lighter isotopes are retained in the residual soil and the heavier isotope...... is enriched in local runoff [1]. This study aims to quantify the stable Cr isotope composition of two modern basaltic weathering profiles, to help better understand the processes that oxidize inert Cr (III) to toxic Cr (VI). We sampled basaltic weathering profiles and associated river waters from areas of two...

Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

2016-12-01

Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

VIS/NIR Spectroscopy to determine the spatial variation of the weathering degree in Paleogene clay soil - London Clay Formation

Science.gov (United States)

Nasser, Mohammed; Gibson, Andy, ,, Dr; Koor, Nick, ,, Dr; Gale, Professor Andy; Huggett, Jenny, ,, Dr; Branch, Steve

2017-04-01

The London Clay Formation (LCF) which underlies much of South-East England is hugely important as a construction medium. However, its geotechnical performance (shear strength, compressive strength, shrink-swell behaviour, etc. ) is greatly affected by its degree of weathering. Despite this importance, little attention has been focussed on a robust method to define and measure its degree of weathering. This is perhaps a result of a well-known colour change from bluish-grey to brown that accompanies 'weathering' and considered to be the result of oxidisation (Chandler and Apted 1988). Through wide experience, this definition is normally effective, but it is perhaps subjective and reliant on the experience of the investigator and the ability to observe samples or exposures. More objective investigation, typically using SEM is not normally economically feasible or expedient for construction works. We propose a simple, robust method to characterise the degree of weathering in the LCF using reflective or Visible-Near-InfraRed-Spectroscopy (VNIRS). 24 samples were extracted from 2 boreholes drilled in the Hampstead area of London to depths of 12 m within the uppermost Claygate Member of the LCF. VNIRS spectra (350-2500 nm) were measured from all samples and compared with XRD, XRF, SEM and PSD results on the same samples. Results show increased magnitude of absorption features related to clay mineralogy around 1400, 1900 and 2200 nm to a depth of 5 m beneath ground level. Beneath this depth, the absorption features show little variation. SEM analyses show corresponding changes in the degradation of pyrite crystals and individual clay (illite/smectite). These preliminary results show that there is a good potential for VNIRS spectroscopy to determine the variation of weathering in the LCF.

Space Weather and Real-Time Monitoring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S Watari

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Recent advance of information and communications technology enables to collect a large amount of ground-based and space-based observation data in real-time. The real-time data realize nowcast of space weather. This paper reports a history of space weather by the International Space Environment Service (ISES in association with the International Geophysical Year (IGY and importance of real-time monitoring in space weather.

Seafloor weathering buffering climate: numerical experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Farahat, N. X.; Archer, D. E.; Abbot, D. S.

2013-12-01

Continental silicate weathering is widely held to consume atmospheric CO2 at a rate controlled in part by temperature, resulting in a climate-weathering feedback [Walker et al., 1981]. It has been suggested that weathering of oceanic crust of warm mid-ocean ridge flanks also has a CO2 uptake rate that is controlled by climate [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001; Brady and Gislason, 1997]. Although this effect might not be significant on present-day Earth [Caldeira, 1995], seafloor weathering may be more pronounced during snowball states [Le Hir et al., 2008], during the Archean when seafloor spreading rates were faster [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001], and on waterworld planets [Abbot et al., 2012]. Previous studies of seafloor weathering have made significant contributions using qualitative, generally one-box, models, and the logical next step is to extend this work using a spatially resolved model. For example, experiments demonstrate that seafloor weathering reactions are temperature dependent, but it is not clear whether the deep ocean temperature affects the temperature at which the reactions occur, or if instead this temperature is set only by geothermal processes. Our goal is to develop a 2-D numerical model that can simulate hydrothermal circulation and resulting alteration of oceanic basalts, and can therefore address such questions. A model of diffusive and convective heat transfer in fluid-saturated porous media simulates hydrothermal circulation through porous oceanic basalt. Unsteady natural convection is solved for using a Darcy model of porous media flow that has been extensively benchmarked. Background hydrothermal circulation is coupled to mineral reaction kinetics of basaltic alteration and hydrothermal mineral precipitation. In order to quantify seafloor weathering as a climate-weathering feedback process, this model focuses on hydrothermal reactions that influence carbon uptake as well as ocean alkalinity: silicate rock dissolution, calcium and magnesium leaching

Modeling extreme "Carrington-type" space weather events using three-dimensional global MHD simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Glocer, Alex

2014-06-01

There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al. (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst˜=-1600 nT.

57 Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy studies of chondritic meteorites from the Atacama Desert, Chile: Implications for weathering processes

Science.gov (United States)

Munayco, P.; Munayco, J.; Valenzuela, M.; Rochette, P.; Gattacceca, J.; Scorzelli, R. B.

2014-01-01

Some terrestrial areas have climatic and geomorphologic features that favor the preservation, and therefore, accumulation of meteorites. The Atacama Desert in Chile is among the most important of such areas, known as dense collection areas. This desert is the driest on Earth, one of the most arid, uninhabitable locals with semi-arid, arid and hyper-arid conditions. The meteorites studied here were collected from within the dense collection area of San Juan at the Central Depression and Coastal Range of Atacama Desert. 57Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy was used for quantitative analysis of the degree of weathering of the meteorites, through the determination of the proportions of the various Fe-bearing phases and in particular the amount of oxidized iron in the terrestrial alteration products. The abundance of ferric ions in weathered chondrites can be related to specific precursor compositions and to the level of terrestrial weathering. The aim of the study was the identification, quantification and differentiation of the weathering products in the ordinary chondrites found in the San Juan area of Atacama Desert.

A fresh look at weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings using 30-year actual weather data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Tianzhen; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Hung-Wen

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use. • Weather impact varies with building type, building efficiency level, and location. • Simulated results using TMY3 weather data can under or over estimate those of AMY. • It is crucial to assess performance of buildings using long-term actual weather data. • Findings enable building stakeholders to make better decisions on weather impact. - Abstract: Buildings consume more than one third of the world’s total primary energy. Weather plays a unique and significant role as it directly affects the thermal loads and thus energy performance of buildings. The traditional simulated energy performance using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data represents the building performance for a typical year, but not necessarily the average or typical long-term performance as buildings with different energy systems and designs respond differently to weather changes. Furthermore, the single-year TMY simulations do not provide a range of results that capture yearly variations due to changing weather, which is important for building energy management, and for performing risk assessments of energy efficiency investments. This paper employs large-scale building simulation (a total of 3162 runs) to study the weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use with the 30-year (1980–2009) Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels, across all 17 ASHRAE climate zones. The simulated results using the AMY data are compared to those from the TMY3 data to determine and analyze the differences. Besides further demonstration, as done by other studies, that actual weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings, the main findings from the current study include: (1) annual weather variation has a greater impact on the peak electricity demand than it does

44 CFR 15.3 - Access to Mt. Weather.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Access to Mt. Weather. 15.3... HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL CONDUCT AT THE MT. WEATHER EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE CENTER AND AT THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER § 15.3 Access to Mt. Weather. Mt. Weather contains classified material and areas...

The Challenge of Weather Prediction

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 3. The Challenge of Weather Prediction Old and Modern Ways of Weather Forecasting. B N Goswami. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 3 March 1997 pp 8-15. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

Weatherization Beyond the Numbers: Case Studies of Fifteen High-performing Weatherization Agencies - Conducted May 2011 through July 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, Bruce Edward [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rose, Erin M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hawkins, Beth A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2014-09-01

The report presents fifteen individual case studies of high-performing and unique local weatherization agencies. This research was one component of the retrospective evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy s Weatherization Assistance Program. The agencies were chosen to represent a range of contexts and approaches to weatherization. For example, the set of agencies includes a mix of urban and rural agencies, those that mainly use in-house crews to weatherize homes versus those that use contractor crews, and a mix of locations, from very cold climates to moderate to hot humid and dry climates. The case studies were mainly based on site visits to the agencies that encompassed interviews with program directors, weatherization crews, and recipients of weatherization. This information was supplemented by secondary materials. The cases document the diversity of contexts and challenges faced by the agencies and how they operate on a day-by-day basis. The cases also high common themes found throughout the agencies, such as their focus on mission and respect for their clients.

49 CFR 192.231 - Protection from weather.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Protection from weather. 192.231 Section 192.231 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY... weather. The welding operation must be protected from weather conditions that would impair the quality of...

Reducing prediction uncertainty of weather controlled systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Doeswijk, T.G.

2007-01-01

In closed agricultural systems the weather acts both as a disturbance and as a resource. By using weather forecasts in control strategies the effects of disturbances can be minimized whereas the resources can be utilized. In this situation weather forecast uncertainty and model based control are

Generating Multispectral VIIRS Imagery in Near Real-Time for Use by the National Weather Service in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Broderson, D.; Dierking, C.; Stevens, E.; Heinrichs, T. A.; Cherry, J. E.

2016-12-01

The Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) uses two direct broadcast antennas to receive data from a number of polar-orbiting weather satellites, including the Suomi National Polar Partnership (S-NPP) satellite. GINA uses data from S-NPP's Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to generate a variety of multispectral imagery products developed with the needs of the National Weather Service operational meteorologist in mind. Multispectral products have two primary advantages over single-channel products. First, they can more clearly highlight some terrain and meteorological features which are less evident in the component single channels. Second, multispectral present the information from several bands through just one image, thereby sparing the meteorologist unnecessary time interrogating the component single bands individually. With 22 channels available from the VIIRS instrument, the number of possible multispectral products is theoretically huge. A small number of products will be emphasized in this presentation, with the products chosen based on their proven utility in the forecasting environment. Multispectral products can be generated upstream of the end user or by the end user at their own workstation. The advantage and disadvantages of both approaches will be outlined. Lastly, the technique of improving the appearance of multispectral imagery by correcting for atmospheric reflectance at the shorter wavelengths will be described.

Estimation of Crash Severity on Mountainous Freeways in Chongqing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunwei Meng

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Mountainous freeways always suffer from accidents due to special terrain, weather conditions, driving environment, and so on. Based on the records of 898 accidents that occurred on mountainous freeways in Chongqing during the past 6 years, the partial proportional odds model is used to identify the factors affecting the accident severity. The time of the accident, season, involvement of trucks, accident characteristics, speeding, maximum driving experience of involved drivers, and weather and road conditions are found to be important for the levels of accident severity. Zero to 6 a.m. and 19 to 24 p.m. are the times prone to serious traffic accidents. The probability of serious traffic accidents in summer and autumn is greater than that in spring and winter. Once a truck is involved in an accident, the consequence is often more severe. Turnover and speeding will result in a grave accident. When there is an experienced driver, the probability of serious traffic accidents is low. The fog is extremely unfavorable weather conditions. The probability of serious accident happening in the downgrade, ramp, curve, bridge, and tunnel sections is greater than the others. The results aim to provide valuable reference for traffic safety on mountainous freeways.

Space Weather Influence on the Earth wheat markets: past, present, and future.

Science.gov (United States)

Pustil'Nik, Lev

We consider problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agriculture market through chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"-"agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"-"earth weather" relations discovered in the last time allow to revise wide field of expected solar-terrestrial connections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather. We show that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for condition of simultaneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works (I, II) included application of this approach to wheat market in Medieval England and to modern USA durum market showed that real connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state is observed with high confidence level. The aim of present work is answer on the question, why wheat markets in one region are sensitive to space weather factor, while another regional wheat markets demonstrate absolute indifferent reaction on this factor. For this aim we consider distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets in Europe to space weather as function of localization in different climatic zones. We analyze giant database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that observed sensitivity of wheat market to space weather effects controlled, first of all, by type of predominant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity with low

[Effect of weather on odontogenic abscesses].

Science.gov (United States)

Nissen, G; Schmidseder, R

1978-11-01

An increased frequency of odontogenous abcesses was observed on certain days in the course of routine clinical practice. We therefore investigated the possibility of a statistically significant weather-related odontogenous soft-tissue purulence originating from chronic apical periodontitis. Medical reports of patients treated between 1970 and 1977 were used. Our study indicated that the frequency of odontogenous abcesses was significantly higher with cyclonic weather conditions, i.e., weather with low barometric pressure.

WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

Science.gov (United States)

Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

2012-01-01

A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP): Technical Assistance Summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hollander, A.

2014-09-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIPO) launched the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) to accelerate innovations in whole-house weatherization and advance DOE's goal of increasing the energy efficiency and health and safety of low-income residences without the utilization of additional taxpayer funding. Sixteen WIPP grantees were awarded a total of $30 million in Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) funds in September 2010. These projects focused on: including nontraditional partners in weatherization service delivery; leveraging significant non-federal funding; and improving the effectiveness of low-income weatherization through the use of new materials, technologies, behavior-change models, and processes.

Space Weather Influence on the Earth Climate: Possible Manifestations in Wheat Markets Reaction

Science.gov (United States)

Pustilnik, Lev; Yom Din, Gregory; Zagnetko, Alexander

We consider problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agri-culture market through chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"-"agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"-"earth weather" relations discovered in the last time allow to revise wide field of expected solar-terrestrial con-nections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather. We show that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for condition of simul-taneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works included application of this approach to wheat market in Medieval England and to modern USA durum market showed that real connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state is observed with high confidence level. The aim of present work is answer on the ques-tion, why wheat markets in one region are sensitive to space weather factor, while another regional wheat markets demonstrate absolute indifferent reaction on this factor. For this aim we consider distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets in Europe to space weather as function of localization in different climatic zones. We analyze giant database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that observed sensitivity of wheat market to space weather effects controlled, first of all, by type of predomi-nant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity with low

Activities of NICT space weather project

Science.gov (United States)

Murata, Ken T.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Mamoru

NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

Detecting Weather Radar Clutter by Information Fusion With Satellite Images and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bøvith, Thomas; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hansen, Lars Kai

2006-01-01

A method for detecting clutter in weather radar images by information fusion is presented. Radar data, satellite images, and output from a numerical weather prediction model are combined and the radar echoes are classified using supervised classification. The presented method uses indirect...... information on precipitation in the atmosphere from Meteosat-8 multispectral images and near-surface temperature estimates from the DMI-HIRLAM-S05 numerical weather prediction model. Alternatively, an operational nowcasting product called 'Precipitating Clouds' based on Meteosat-8 input is used. A scale...

Integration of Weather Data into Airspace and Traffic Operations Simulation (ATOS) for Trajectory- Based Operations Research

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Mark; Boisvert, Ben; Escala, Diego

2009-01-01

Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users We have discussed key elements of an emerging aviation weather research area: the explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with NAS structure to improve the effectiveness and timeliness of weather impact mitigation plans. Our insights are based on operational experiences with Lincoln Laboratory-developed integrated weather sensing and processing systems, and derivative early prototypes of explicit ATM decision support tools such as the RAPT in New York City. The technical components of this effort involve improving meteorological forecast skill, tailoring the forecast outputs to the problem of estimating airspace impacts, developing models to quantify airspace impacts, and prototyping automated tools that assist in the development of objective broad-area ATM strategies, given probabilistic

Weathering During Glacial-Interglacial Cycles Based on Pb Isotopes at Orphan Knoll, NW Atlantic

Science.gov (United States)

Flynn, S. N.; Martin, E. E.

2017-12-01

Seawater Pb isotopes extracted from FeMn oxyhydroxide coatings on deep sea sediments preserve a record of regional variations in continental weathering intensity. Crocket et al. (2012) documented a distinct increase in seawater Pb isotopes across Termination I (TI) at IODP Sites U1302/03 on Orphan Knoll in the NW Atlantic which they attributed to an increase in weathering intensity associated with ice sheet retreat. Deglaciation during Termination II (TII) was more rapid than TI due to higher insolation forcing and elevated CO2 levels. This rapid warming followed Heinrich Stadial 11 (HS11) cooling and circulation changes, but was not interrupted by a Younger Dryas-type reversal in warming. In this study, Pb isotopic data from leachates of the Sites U1302/03 are used to test whether changes in weathering are a feature of terminations and whether differences in the character of the termination translate to differences in the weathering response. We analyzed the clay/silt fraction to minimize preformed FeMn oxyhydroxides associated with IRD. All three Pb isotopic systems display similar patterns. Seawater 206Pb/204Pb values are 19.5 during MIS 6, reach a minimum of 18.7 during HS11, increase in < 1 ky to 20.6 in MIS 5e, and then vary between 19.9 - 20.5 across MIS 5e-d. In comparison to the TI study (Crocket et al., 2009), the TII HS is defined by a minimum in Pb isotopes that suggests suppressed chemical weathering during cooling and ice sheet advance. The increase in 206Pb/204Pb during TII indicates a rapid increase in weathering at high latitudes following glacial retreat. This result is consistent with a negative shift in ɛNd values during TII observed farther south on Bermuda Rise and interpreted as increased weathering of old continental material (Deaney et al. 2017). Future research on TII at Orphan Knoll includes analyses of detrital Pb isotopes to isolate the impact of changes in source material versus weathering intensity on seawater Pb isotopes, and

Utilization of Live Localized Weather Information for Sustainable Agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, J.; Usher, J.

2010-09-01

Authors: Jim Anderson VP, Global Network and Business Development WeatherBug® Professional Jeremy Usher Managing Director, Europe WeatherBug® Professional Localized, real-time weather information is vital for day-to-day agronomic management of all crops. The challenge for agriculture is twofold in that local and timely weather data is not often available for producers and farmers, and it is not integrated into decision-support tools they require. Many of the traditional sources of weather information are not sufficient for agricultural applications because of the long distances between weather stations, meaning the data is not always applicable for on-farm decision making processes. The second constraint with traditional weather information is the timeliness of the data. Most delivery systems are designed on a one-hour time step, whereas many decisions in agriculture are based on minute-by-minute weather conditions. This is especially true for decisions surrounding chemical and fertilizer application and frost events. This presentation will outline how the creation of an agricultural mesonet (weather network) can enable producers and farmers with live, local weather information from weather stations installed in farm/field locations. The live weather information collected from each weather station is integrated into a web-enabled decision support tool, supporting numerous on-farm agronomic activities such as pest management, or dealing with heavy rainfall and frost events. Agronomic models can be used to assess the potential of disease pressure, enhance the farmer's abilities to time pesticide applications, or assess conditions contributing to yield and quality fluctuations. Farmers and industry stakeholders may also view quality-assured historical weather variables at any location. This serves as a record-management tool for viewing previously uncharted agronomic weather events in graph or table form. This set of weather tools is unique and provides a

46 CFR 44.01-13 - Heavy weather plan.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Heavy weather plan. 44.01-13 Section 44.01-13 Shipping... VOYAGES Administration § 44.01-13 Heavy weather plan. (a) Each heavy weather plan under § 44.01-12(b) must... Inspection. Approval of a heavy weather plan is limited to the current hurricane season. (b) The cognizant...