Human Reliability in Probabilistic Safety Assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nunez Mendez, J.

1989-01-01

Nowadays a growing interest in environmental aspects is detected in our country. It implies an assessment of the risk involved in the industrial processes and installations in order to determine if those are into the acceptable limits. In these safety assessments, among which PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessments), can be pointed out the role played by the human being in the system is one of the more relevant subjects (This relevance has been demonstrated in the accidents happened) . However, in Spain there aren't manuals specifically dedicated to asses the human contribution to risk in the frame of PSAs. This report aims to improve this situation providing: a) a theoretical background to help the reader in the understanding of the nature of the human error, b) a quid to carry out a Human Reliability Analysis and c) a selected overview of the techniques and methodologies currently applied in this area. (Author) 20 refs

Practical applications of probabilistic structural reliability analyses to primary pressure systems of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Witt, F.J.

1980-01-01

Primary pressure systems of nuclear power plants are built to exacting codes and standards with provisions for inservice inspection and repair if necessary. Analyses and experiments have demonstrated by deterministic means that very large margins exist on safety impacting failures under normal operating and upset conditions. Probabilistic structural reliability analyses provide additional support that failures of significance are very, very remote. They may range in degree of sophistication from very simple calculations to very complex computer analyses involving highly developed mathematical techniques. The end result however should be consistent with the desired usage. In this paper a probabilistic structural reliability analysis is performed as a supplement to in-depth deterministic evaluations with the primary objective to demonstrate an acceptably low probability of failure for the conditions considered. (author)

Operator reliability study for Probabilistic Safety Analysis of an operating research reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohamed, F.; Hassan, A.; Yahaya, R.; Rahman, I.; Maskin, M.; Praktom, P.; Charlie, F.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) for Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) is performed on research nuclear reactor. • Implemented qualitative HRA framework is addressed. • Human Failure Events of significant impact to the reactor safety are derived. - Abstract: A Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) for the TRIGA Mark II research reactor of Malaysian Nuclear Agency has been developed to evaluate the potential risk in its operation. In conjunction to this PSA development, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is performed in order to determine human contribution to the risk. The aim of this study is to qualitatively analyze human actions (HAs) involved in the operation of this reactor according to the qualitative part of the HRA framework for PSA which is namely the identification, qualitative screening and modeling of HAs. By performing this framework, Human Failure Events (HFEs) of significant impact to the reactor safety are systematically analyzed and incorporated into the PSA structure. A part of the findings in this study will become the input for the subsequent quantitative part of the HRA framework, i.e. the Human Error Probability (HEP) quantification

Global optimization of maintenance and surveillance testing based on reliability and probabilistic safety assessment. Research project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martorell, S.; Serradell, V.; Munoz, A.; Sanchez, A.

1997-01-01

Background, objective, scope, detailed working plan and follow-up and final product of the project ''Global optimization of maintenance and surveillance testing based on reliability and probabilistic safety assessment'' are described

Component reliability data for use in probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-10-01

Generic component reliability data is indispensable in any probabilistic safety analysis. It is not realistic to assume that all possible component failures and failure modes modeled in a PSA would be available from the operating experience of a specific plant in a statistically meaningful way. The degree that generic data is used in PSAs varies from case to case. Some studies are totally based on generic data while others use generic data as prior information to be specialized by plant specific data. Most studies, however, finally use a combination where data for certain components come from generic data sources and others from Bayesian updating. The IAEA effort to compile a generic component reliability data base aimed at facilitating the use of data available in the literature and at highlighting pitfalls which deserve special consideration. It was also intended to complement the fault tree and event tree package (PSAPACK) and to facilitate its use. Moreover, it should be noted, that the IAEA has recently initiated a Coordinated Research Program in Reliability Data Collection, Retrieval and Analysis. In this framework the issues identified as most affecting the quality of existing data bases would be addressed. This report presents the results of a compilation made from the specialized literature and includes reliability data for components usually considered in PSA

Determining the theoretical reliability function of thermal power system using simple and complex Weibull distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kalaba Dragan V.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The main subject of this paper is the representation of the probabilistic technique for thermal power system reliability assessment. Exploitation research of the reliability of the fossil fuel power plant system has defined the function, or the probabilistic law, according to which the random variable behaves (occurrence of complete unplanned standstill. Based on these data, and by applying the reliability theory to this particular system, using simple and complex Weibull distribution, a hypothesis has been confirmed that the distribution of the observed random variable fully describes the behaviour of such a system in terms of reliability. Establishing a comprehensive insight in the field of probabilistic power system reliability assessment technique could serve as an input for further research and development in the area of power system planning and operation.

Development of reliability and probabilistic safety assessment program RiskA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Yican

2015-01-01

Highlights: • There are four parts in the structure of RiskA. User input part lets users input the PSA model and some necessary data by GUI or model transformation tool. In calculation engine part, fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, importance analysis and failure mode and effects analysis are supplied. User output part outputs the analysis results, user customized reports and some other data. The last part includes reliability database, some other common tools and help documents. • RiskA has several advanced features. Extensible framework makes it easy to add any new functions, making RiskA to be a large platform of reliability and probabilistic safety assessment. It is very fast to analysis fault tree in RiskA because many advanced algorithm improvement were made. Many model formats can be imported and exported, which made the PSA model in the commercial software can be easily transformed to adapt RiskA platform. Web-based co-modeling let several users in different places work together whenever they are online. • The comparison between RiskA and other mature PSA codes (e.g. CAFTA, RiskSpectrum, XFTA) has demonstrated that the calculation and analysis of RiskA is correct and efficient. Based on the development of this code package, many applications of safety and reliability analysis of some research reactors and nuclear power plants were performed. The development of RiskA appears to be of realistic and potential value for academic research and practical operation safety management of nuclear power plants in China and abroad. - Abstract: PSA (probabilistic safety assessment) software, the indispensable tool in nuclear safety assessment, has been widely used. An integrated reliability and PSA program named RiskA has been developed by FDS Team. RiskA supplies several standard PSA modules including fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, uncertainty analysis, failure mode and effect analysis and reliability

Probabilistic safety analysis and human reliability analysis. Proceedings. Working material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

An international meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) was jointly organized by Electricite de France - Research and Development (EDF DER) and SRI International in co-ordination with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The meeting was held in Paris 21-23 November 1994. A group of international and French specialists in PSA and HRA participated at the meeting and discussed the state of the art and current trends in the following six topics: PSA Methodology; PSA Applications; From PSA to Dependability; Incident Analysis; Safety Indicators; Human Reliability. For each topic a background paper was prepared by EDF/DER and reviewed by the international group of specialists who attended the meeting. The results of this meeting provide a comprehensive overview of the most important questions related to the readiness of PSA for specific uses and areas where further research and development is required. Refs, figs, tabs

Probabilistic safety analysis and human reliability analysis. Proceedings. Working material

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-12-31

An international meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) was jointly organized by Electricite de France - Research and Development (EDF DER) and SRI International in co-ordination with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The meeting was held in Paris 21-23 November 1994. A group of international and French specialists in PSA and HRA participated at the meeting and discussed the state of the art and current trends in the following six topics: PSA Methodology; PSA Applications; From PSA to Dependability; Incident Analysis; Safety Indicators; Human Reliability. For each topic a background paper was prepared by EDF/DER and reviewed by the international group of specialists who attended the meeting. The results of this meeting provide a comprehensive overview of the most important questions related to the readiness of PSA for specific uses and areas where further research and development is required. Refs, figs, tabs.

Probabilistic safety assessment of Tehran Research Reactor using systems analysis programs for hands-on integrated reliability evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosseini, M.H.; Nematollahi, M.R.; Sepanloo, K.

2004-01-01

Probabilistic safety assessment application is found to be a practical tool for research reactor safety due to intense involvement of human interactions in an experimental facility. In this document the application of the probabilistic safety assessment to the Tehran Research Reactor is presented. The level 1 practicabilities safety assessment application involved: Familiarization with the plant, selection of accident initiators, mitigating functions and system definitions, event tree constructions and quantifications, fault tree constructions and quantification, human reliability, component failure data base development and dependent failure analysis. Each of the steps of the analysis given above is discussed with highlights from the selected results. Quantification of the constructed models is done using systems analysis programs for hands-on integrated reliability evaluations software

On the applicability of probabilistic analyses to assess the structural reliability of materials and components for solid-oxide fuel cells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lara-Curzio, Edgar [ORNL; Radovic, Miladin [Texas A& M University; Luttrell, Claire R [ORNL

2016-01-01

The applicability of probabilistic analyses to assess the structural reliability of materials and components for solid-oxide fuel cells (SOFC) is investigated by measuring the failure rate of Ni-YSZ when subjected to a temperature gradient and comparing it with that predicted using the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) code. The use of a temperature gradient to induce stresses was chosen because temperature gradients resulting from gas flow patterns generate stresses during SOFC operation that are the likely to control the structural reliability of cell components The magnitude of the predicted failure rate was found to be comparable to that determined experimentally, which suggests that such probabilistic analyses are appropriate for predicting the structural reliability of materials and components for SOFCs. Considerations for performing more comprehensive studies are discussed.

Photovoltaic and Wind Turbine Integration Applying Cuckoo Search for Probabilistic Reliable Optimal Placement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. A. Swief

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an efficient Cuckoo Search Optimization technique to improve the reliability of electrical power systems. Various reliability objective indices such as Energy Not Supplied, System Average Interruption Frequency Index, System Average Interruption, and Duration Index are the main indices indicating reliability. The Cuckoo Search Optimization (CSO technique is applied to optimally place the protection devices, install the distributed generators, and to determine the size of distributed generators in radial feeders for reliability improvement. Distributed generator affects reliability and system power losses and voltage profile. The volatility behaviour for both photovoltaic cells and the wind turbine farms affect the values and the selection of protection devices and distributed generators allocation. To improve reliability, the reconfiguration will take place before installing both protection devices and distributed generators. Assessment of consumer power system reliability is a vital part of distribution system behaviour and development. Distribution system reliability calculation will be relayed on probabilistic reliability indices, which can expect the disruption profile of a distribution system based on the volatility behaviour of added generators and load behaviour. The validity of the anticipated algorithm has been tested using a standard IEEE 69 bus system.

Comparative analysis of deterministic and probabilistic fracture mechanical assessment tools

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heckmann, Klaus [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) gGmbH, Koeln (Germany); Saifi, Qais [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

2016-11-15

Uncertainties in material properties, manufacturing processes, loading conditions and damage mechanisms complicate the quantification of structural reliability. Probabilistic structure mechanical computing codes serve as tools for assessing leak- and break probabilities of nuclear piping components. Probabilistic fracture mechanical tools were compared in different benchmark activities, usually revealing minor, but systematic discrepancies between results of different codes. In this joint paper, probabilistic fracture mechanical codes are compared. Crack initiation, crack growth and the influence of in-service inspections are analyzed. Example cases for stress corrosion cracking and fatigue in LWR conditions are analyzed. The evolution of annual failure probabilities during simulated operation time is investigated, in order to identify the reasons for differences in the results of different codes. The comparison of the tools is used for further improvements of the codes applied by the partners.

Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 5. System reliability and analysis techniques Session D - quantification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lofgren, E.V.

1985-08-01

This course in System Reliability and Analysis Techniques focuses on the probabilistic quantification of accident sequences and the link between accident sequences and consequences. Other sessions in this series focus on the quantification of system reliability and the development of event trees and fault trees. This course takes the viewpoint that event tree sequences or combinations of system failures and success are available and that Boolean equations for system fault trees have been developed and are available. 93 figs., 11 tabs

Summary of component reliability data for probabilistic safety analysis of Korean standard nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, S. Y.; Han, S. H.

2004-01-01

The reliability data of Korean NPP that reflects the plant specific characteristics is necessary for PSA of Korean nuclear power plants. We have performed a study to develop the component reliability DB and S/W for component reliability analysis. Based on the system, we had have collected the component operation data and failure/repair data during plant operation data to 1998/2000 for YGN 3,4/UCN 3,4 respectively. Recently, we have upgraded the database by collecting additional data by 2002 for Korean standard nuclear power plants and performed component reliability analysis and Bayesian analysis again. In this paper, we supply the summary of component reliability data for probabilistic safety analysis of Korean standard nuclear power plant and describe the plant specific characteristics compared to the generic data

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

Science.gov (United States)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Stutts, Richard G.; Zhaofeng, Huang

2015-01-01

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will

A shortened version of the THERP/Handbook approach to human reliability analysis for probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swain, A.D.

1986-01-01

The approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) known as THERP/Handbook has been applied to several probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear power plants (NPPs) and other complex systems. The approach is based on a thorough task analysis of the man-machine interfaces, including the interactions among the people, involved in the operations being assessed. The idea is to assess fully the underlying performance shaping factors (PSFs) and dependence effects which result either in reliable or unreliable human performance

A fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic events of fault tree analysis for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purba, Julwan Hendry

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We propose a fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic event reliabilities. • It implements the concepts of failure possibilities and fuzzy sets. • Experts evaluate basic event failure possibilities using qualitative words. • Triangular fuzzy numbers mathematically represent qualitative failure possibilities. • It is a very good alternative for conventional reliability approach. - Abstract: Fault tree analysis has been widely utilized as a tool for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment. This analysis can be completed only if all basic events of the system fault tree have their quantitative failure rates or failure probabilities. However, it is difficult to obtain those failure data due to insufficient data, environment changing or new components. This study proposes a fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic events of system fault trees whose failure precise probability distributions of their lifetime to failures are not available. It applies the concept of failure possibilities to qualitatively evaluate basic events and the concept of fuzzy sets to quantitatively represent the corresponding failure possibilities. To demonstrate the feasibility and the effectiveness of the proposed approach, the actual basic event failure probabilities collected from the operational experiences of the David–Besse design of the Babcock and Wilcox reactor protection system fault tree are used to benchmark the failure probabilities generated by the proposed approach. The results confirm that the proposed fuzzy-based reliability approach arises as a suitable alternative for the conventional probabilistic reliability approach when basic events do not have the corresponding quantitative historical failure data for determining their reliability characteristics. Hence, it overcomes the limitation of the conventional fault tree analysis for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment

Overview of Future of Probabilistic Methods and RMSL Technology and the Probabilistic Methods Education Initiative for the US Army at the SAE G-11 Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

Singhal, Surendra N.

2003-01-01

The SAE G-11 RMSL Division and Probabilistic Methods Committee meeting sponsored by the Picatinny Arsenal during March 1-3, 2004 at Westin Morristown, will report progress on projects for probabilistic assessment of Army system and launch an initiative for probabilistic education. The meeting features several Army and industry Senior executives and Ivy League Professor to provide an industry/government/academia forum to review RMSL technology; reliability and probabilistic technology; reliability-based design methods; software reliability; and maintainability standards. With over 100 members including members with national/international standing, the mission of the G-11s Probabilistic Methods Committee is to enable/facilitate rapid deployment of probabilistic technology to enhance the competitiveness of our industries by better, faster, greener, smarter, affordable and reliable product development.

Setting reinspection intervals for seam welded piping by use of probabilistic fracture mechanics and target reliability values

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harris, D.O.; Dedhia, D.

1995-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure for the selection of a reinspection interval for defects found during an inspection. The procedure is based on probabilistic fracture mechanics calculations of the reliability of the component into the future and selection of an inspection time based on maintaining the target value reliability. The selection of a target value based on the risk of everyday activities is discussed. The procedure is applied to high temperature seam welded piping as an example, because the probabilistic fracture mechanics tools are relatively readily available and this is a problem of great current interest. The results obtained in the example problem indicate reinspection intervals much shorter than field experience would suggest. This indicates a conservatism in the fracture mechanics procedures and/or lack of accurate characterization of scatter in material properties due to lack of data. The general procedure should prove useful in the disposition of detected cracks in a wide variety of situations

Probabilistic design of fibre concrete structures

Science.gov (United States)

Pukl, R.; Novák, D.; Sajdlová, T.; Lehký, D.; Červenka, J.; Červenka, V.

2017-09-01

Advanced computer simulation is recently well-established methodology for evaluation of resistance of concrete engineering structures. The nonlinear finite element analysis enables to realistically predict structural damage, peak load, failure, post-peak response, development of cracks in concrete, yielding of reinforcement, concrete crushing or shear failure. The nonlinear material models can cover various types of concrete and reinforced concrete: ordinary concrete, plain or reinforced, without or with prestressing, fibre concrete, (ultra) high performance concrete, lightweight concrete, etc. Advanced material models taking into account fibre concrete properties such as shape of tensile softening branch, high toughness and ductility are described in the paper. Since the variability of the fibre concrete material properties is rather high, the probabilistic analysis seems to be the most appropriate format for structural design and evaluation of structural performance, reliability and safety. The presented combination of the nonlinear analysis with advanced probabilistic methods allows evaluation of structural safety characterized by failure probability or by reliability index respectively. Authors offer a methodology and computer tools for realistic safety assessment of concrete structures; the utilized approach is based on randomization of the nonlinear finite element analysis of the structural model. Uncertainty of the material properties or their randomness obtained from material tests are accounted in the random distribution. Furthermore, degradation of the reinforced concrete materials such as carbonation of concrete, corrosion of reinforcement, etc. can be accounted in order to analyze life-cycle structural performance and to enable prediction of the structural reliability and safety in time development. The results can serve as a rational basis for design of fibre concrete engineering structures based on advanced nonlinear computer analysis. The presented

A probabilistic approach to safety/reliability of space nuclear power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medford, G.; Williams, K.; Kolaczkowski, A.

1989-01-01

An ongoing effort is investigating the feasibility of using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) modeling techniques to construct a living model of a space nuclear power system. This is being done in conjunction with a traditional reliability and survivability analysis of the SP-100 space nuclear power system. The initial phase of the project consists of three major parts with the overall goal of developing a top-level system model and defining initiating events of interest for the SP-100 system. The three major tasks were performing a traditional survivability analysis, performing a simple system reliability analysis, and constructing a top-level system fault-tree model. Each of these tasks and their interim results are discussed in this paper. Initial results from the study support the conclusion that PRA modeling techniques can provide a valuable design and decision-making tool for space reactors. The ability of the model to rank and calculate relative contributions from various failure modes allows design optimization for maximum safety and reliability. Future efforts in the SP-100 program will see data development and quantification of the model to allow parametric evaluations of the SP-100 system. Current efforts have shown the need for formal data development and test programs within such a modeling framework

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program

Science.gov (United States)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Chamis, Christos C.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Stefko, George L.; Riha, David S.; Thacker, Ben H.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Mital, Subodh K.

2010-01-01

NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements.

Probabilistic Design of Offshore Structural Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1988-01-01

Probabilistic design of structural systems is considered in this paper. The reliability is estimated using first-order reliability methods (FORM). The design problem is formulated as the optimization problem to minimize a given cost function such that the reliability of the single elements...... satisfies given requirements or such that the systems reliability satisfies a given requirement. Based on a sensitivity analysis optimization procedures to solve the optimization problems are presented. Two of these procedures solve the system reliability-based optimization problem sequentially using quasi......-analytical derivatives. Finally an example of probabilistic design of an offshore structure is considered....

Probabilistic Design of Offshore Structural Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

Probabilistic design of structural systems is considered in this paper. The reliability is estimated using first-order reliability methods (FORM). The design problem is formulated as the optimization problem to minimize a given cost function such that the reliability of the single elements...... satisfies given requirements or such that the systems reliability satisfies a given requirement. Based on a sensitivity analysis optimization procedures to solve the optimization problems are presented. Two of these procedures solve the system reliability-based optimization problem sequentially using quasi......-analytical derivatives. Finally an example of probabilistic design of an offshore structure is considered....

Problems and chances for probabilistic fracture mechanics in the analysis of steel pressure boundary reliability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Staat, M [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Sicherheitsforschung und Reaktortechnik

1996-12-01

It is shown that the difficulty for probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) is the general problem of the high reliability of a small population. There is no way around the problem as yet. Therefore what PFM can contribute to the reliability of steel pressure boundaries is demonstrated with the example of a typical reactor pressure vessel and critically discussed. Although no method is distinguishable that could give exact failure probabilities, PFM has several additional chances. Upper limits for failure probability may be obtained together with trends for design and operating conditions. Further, PFM can identify the most sensitive parameters, improved control of which would increase reliability. Thus PFM should play a vital role in the analysis of steel pressure boundaries despite all shortcomings. (author). 19 refs, 7 figs, 1 tab.

Problems and chances for probabilistic fracture mechanics in the analysis of steel pressure boundary reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Staat, M.

1996-01-01

It is shown that the difficulty for probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) is the general problem of the high reliability of a small population. There is no way around the problem as yet. Therefore what PFM can contribute to the reliability of steel pressure boundaries is demonstrated with the example of a typical reactor pressure vessel and critically discussed. Although no method is distinguishable that could give exact failure probabilities, PFM has several additional chances. Upper limits for failure probability may be obtained together with trends for design and operating conditions. Further, PFM can identify the most sensitive parameters, improved control of which would increase reliability. Thus PFM should play a vital role in the analysis of steel pressure boundaries despite all shortcomings. (author). 19 refs, 7 figs, 1 tab

Probabilistic modeling of timber structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Köhler, Jochen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro

2007-01-01

The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) [Joint Committee of Structural Safety. Probabilistic Model Code, Internet...... Publication: www.jcss.ethz.ch; 2001] and of the COST action E24 ‘Reliability of Timber Structures' [COST Action E 24, Reliability of timber structures. Several meetings and Publications, Internet Publication: http://www.km.fgg.uni-lj.si/coste24/coste24.htm; 2005]. The present proposal is based on discussions...... and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for timber components. The recommended probabilistic model for these basic properties...

Current activities and future trends in reliability analysis and probabilistic safety assessment in Hungary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollo, E.; Toth, J.

1986-01-01

In Hungary reliability analysis (RA) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants was initiated 3 years ago. First, computer codes for automatic fault tree analysis (CAT, PREP) and numerical evaluation (REMO, KITT1,2) were adapted. Two main case studies - detailed availability/reliability calculation of diesel sets and analysis of safety systems influencing event sequences induced by large LOCA - were performed. Input failure data were taken from publications, a need for failure and reliability data bank was revealed. Current and future activities involves: setup of national data bank for WWER-440 units; full-scope level-I PSA of PAKS NPP in Hungary; operational safety assessment of particular problems at PAKS NPP. In the present article the state of RA and PSA activities in Hungary, as well as the main objectives of ongoing work are described. A need for international cooperation (for unified data collection of WWER-440 units) and for IAEA support (within Interregional Program INT/9/063) is emphasized. (author)

Stochastic network interdiction optimization via capacitated network reliability modeling and probabilistic solution discovery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel; Rocco S, Claudio M.

2009-01-01

This paper introduces an evolutionary optimization approach that can be readily applied to solve stochastic network interdiction problems (SNIP). The network interdiction problem solved considers the minimization of the cost associated with an interdiction strategy such that the maximum flow that can be transmitted between a source node and a sink node for a fixed network design is greater than or equal to a given reliability requirement. Furthermore, the model assumes that the nominal capacity of each network link and the cost associated with their interdiction can change from link to link and that such interdiction has a probability of being successful. This version of the SNIP is for the first time modeled as a capacitated network reliability problem allowing for the implementation of computation and solution techniques previously unavailable. The solution process is based on an evolutionary algorithm that implements: (1) Monte-Carlo simulation, to generate potential network interdiction strategies, (2) capacitated network reliability techniques to analyze strategies' source-sink flow reliability and, (3) an evolutionary optimization technique to define, in probabilistic terms, how likely a link is to appear in the final interdiction strategy. Examples for different sizes of networks are used throughout the paper to illustrate the approach

An evaluation of the reliability and usefulness of external-initiator PRA (probabilistic risk analysis) methodologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Budnitz, R.J.; Lambert, H.E. (Future Resources Associates, Inc., Berkeley, CA (USA))

1990-01-01

The discipline of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has become so mature in recent years that it is now being used routinely to assist decision-making throughout the nuclear industry. This includes decision-making that affects design, construction, operation, maintenance, and regulation. Unfortunately, not all sub-areas within the larger discipline of PRA are equally mature,'' and therefore the many different types of engineering insights from PRA are not all equally reliable. 93 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

An evaluation of the reliability and usefulness of external-initiator PRA [probabilistic risk analysis] methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budnitz, R.J.; Lambert, H.E.

1990-01-01

The discipline of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has become so mature in recent years that it is now being used routinely to assist decision-making throughout the nuclear industry. This includes decision-making that affects design, construction, operation, maintenance, and regulation. Unfortunately, not all sub-areas within the larger discipline of PRA are equally ''mature,'' and therefore the many different types of engineering insights from PRA are not all equally reliable. 93 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

A probabilistic capacity spectrum strategy for the reliability analysis of bridge pile shafts considering soil structure interaction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dookie Kim

Full Text Available This paper presents a probabilistic capacity spectrum strategy for the reliability analysis of a bridge pile shaft, accounting for uncertainties in design factors in the analysis and the soil-structure interaction (SSI. Monte Carlo simulation method (MCS is adopted to determine the probabilities of failure by comparing the responses with defined limit states. The analysis considers the soil structure interaction together with the probabilistic application of the capacity spectrum method for different types of limit states. A cast-in-drilledhole (CIDH extended reinforced concrete pile shaft of a bridge is analysed using the proposed strategy. The results of the analysis show that the SSI can lead to increase or decrease of the structure's probability of failure depending on the definition of the limit states.

Structural reliability assessment capability in NESSUS

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.

1992-07-01

The principal capabilities of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), an advanced computer code developed for probabilistic structural response analysis, are reviewed, and its structural reliability assessed. The code combines flexible structural modeling tools with advanced probabilistic algorithms in order to compute probabilistic structural response and resistance, component reliability and risk, and system reliability and risk. An illustrative numerical example is presented.

Deliverable D74.2. Probabilistic analysis methods for support structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gintautas, Tomas

2018-01-01

Relevant Description: Report describing the probabilistic analysis for offshore substructures and results attained. This includes comparison with experimental data and with conventional design. Specific targets: 1) Estimate current reliability level of support structures 2) Development of basis...... for probabilistic calculations and evaluation of reliability for offshore support structures (substructures) 3) Development of a probabilistic model for stiffness and strength of soil parameters and for modeling geotechnical load bearing capacity 4) Comparison between probabilistic analysis and deterministic...

Reliability calculation of cracked components using probabilistic fracture mechanics and a Markovian approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidt, T.

1988-01-01

The numerical reliability calculation of cracked construction components under cyclical fatigue stress can be done with the help of models of probabilistic fracture mechanics. An alternative to the Monte Carlo simulation method is examined; the alternative method is based on the description of failure processes with the help of a Markov process. The Markov method is traced back directly to the stochastic parameters of a two-dimensional fracture mechanics model, the effects of inspections and repairs also being considered. The probability of failure and expected failure frequency can be determined as time functions with the transition and conditional probabilities of the original or derived Markov process. For concrete calculation, an approximative Markov chain is designed which, under certain conditions, is capable of giving a sufficient approximation of the original Markov process and the reliability characteristics determined by it. The application of the MARKOV program code developed into an algorithm reveals sufficient conformity with the Monte Carlo reference results. The starting point of the investigation was the 'Deutsche Risikostudie B (DWR)' ('German Risk Study B (DWR)'), specifically, the reliability of the main coolant line. (orig./HP) [de

A comparative study of the probabilistic fracture mechanics and the stochastic Markovian process approaches for structural reliability assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stavrakakis, G.; Lucia, A.C.; Solomos, G. (Commission of the European Communities, Ispra (Italy). Joint Research Centre)

1990-01-01

The two computer codes COVASTOL and RELIEF, developed for the modeling of cumulative damage processes in the framework of probabilistic structural reliability, are compared. They are based respectively on the randomisation of a differential crack growth law and on the theory of discrete Markov processes. The codes are applied for fatigue crack growth predictions using two sets of data of crack propagation curves from specimens. The results are critically analyzed and an extensive discussion follows on the merits and limitations of each code. Their transferability for the reliability assessment of real structures is investigated. (author).

Recent developments of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Torng, T.; Thacker, B.; Riha, D.; Leung, C. P.

1992-01-01

The NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general purpose structural analysis methods to compute the probabilistic response and the reliability of engineering structures. Uncertainty in loading, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include nonlinear finite element and boundary element methods. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. The scope of the code has recently been expanded to include probabilistic life and fatigue prediction of structures in terms of component and system reliability and risk analysis of structures considering cost of failure. The code is currently being extended to structural reliability considering progressive crack propagation. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the new capabilities.

Probabilistic Role Models and the Guarded Fragment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2004-01-01

We propose a uniform semantic framework for interpreting probabilistic concept subsumption and probabilistic role quantification through statistical sampling distributions. This general semantic principle serves as the foundation for the development of a probabilistic version of the guarded fragm...... fragment of first-order logic. A characterization of equivalence in that logic in terms of bisimulations is given....

Probabilistic role models and the guarded fragment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2006-01-01

We propose a uniform semantic framework for interpreting probabilistic concept subsumption and probabilistic role quantification through statistical sampling distributions. This general semantic principle serves as the foundation for the development of a probabilistic version of the guarded fragm...... fragment of first-order logic. A characterization of equivalence in that logic in terms of bisimulations is given....

Probabilistic Analysis of Passive Safety System Reliability in Advanced Small Modular Reactors: Methodologies and Lessons Learned

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grabaskas, David; Bucknor, Matthew; Brunett, Acacia; Grelle, Austin

2015-06-28

Many advanced small modular reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended due to deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize with a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper describes the most promising options: mechanistic techniques, which share qualities with conventional probabilistic methods, and simulation-based techniques, which explicitly account for time-dependent processes. The primary intention of this paper is to describe the strengths and weaknesses of each methodology and highlight the lessons learned while applying the two techniques while providing high-level results. This includes the global benefits and deficiencies of the methods and practical problems encountered during the implementation of each technique.

Probabilistic finite elements for fracture mechanics

Science.gov (United States)

Besterfield, Glen

1988-01-01

The probabilistic finite element method (PFEM) is developed for probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM). A finite element which has the near crack-tip singular strain embedded in the element is used. Probabilistic distributions, such as expectation, covariance and correlation stress intensity factors, are calculated for random load, random material and random crack length. The method is computationally quite efficient and can be expected to determine the probability of fracture or reliability.

Development of Probabilistic Reliability Models of Photovoltaic System Topologies for System Adequacy Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad Alferidi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The contribution of solar power in electric power systems has been increasing rapidly due to its environmentally friendly nature. Photovoltaic (PV systems contain solar cell panels, power electronic converters, high power switching and often transformers. These components collectively play an important role in shaping the reliability of PV systems. Moreover, the power output of PV systems is variable, so it cannot be controlled as easily as conventional generation due to the unpredictable nature of weather conditions. Therefore, solar power has a different influence on generating system reliability compared to conventional power sources. Recently, different PV system designs have been constructed to maximize the output power of PV systems. These different designs are commonly adopted based on the scale of a PV system. Large-scale grid-connected PV systems are generally connected in a centralized or a string structure. Central and string PV schemes are different in terms of connecting the inverter to PV arrays. Micro-inverter systems are recognized as a third PV system topology. It is therefore important to evaluate the reliability contribution of PV systems under these topologies. This work utilizes a probabilistic technique to develop a power output model for a PV generation system. A reliability model is then developed for a PV integrated power system in order to assess the reliability and energy contribution of the solar system to meet overall system demand. The developed model is applied to a small isolated power unit to evaluate system adequacy and capacity level of a PV system considering the three topologies.

Standardization of domestic human reliability analysis and experience of human reliability analysis in probabilistic safety assessment for NPPs under design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, D. I.; Jung, W. D.

2002-01-01

This paper introduces the background and development activities of domestic standardization of procedure and method for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) to avoid the intervention of subjectivity by HRA analyst in Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as possible, and the review of the HRA results for domestic nuclear power plants under design studied by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. We identify the HRA methods used for PSA for domestic NPPs and discuss the subjectivity of HRA analyst shown in performing a HRA. Also, we introduce the PSA guidelines published in USA and review the HRA results based on them. We propose the system of a standard procedure and method for HRA to be developed

Assessing reliability of fatigue indicator parameters for small crack growth via a probabilistic framework

Science.gov (United States)

Rovinelli, Andrea; Guilhem, Yoann; Proudhon, Henry; Lebensohn, Ricardo A.; Ludwig, Wolfgang; Sangid, Michael D.

2017-06-01

Microstructurally small cracks exhibit large variability in their fatigue crack growth rate. It is accepted that the inherent variability in microstructural features is related to the uncertainty in the growth rate. However, due to (i) the lack of cycle-by-cycle experimental data, (ii) the complexity of the short crack growth phenomenon, and (iii) the incomplete physics of constitutive relationships, only empirical damage metrics have been postulated to describe the short crack driving force metric (SCDFM) at the mesoscale level. The identification of the SCDFM of polycrystalline engineering alloys is a critical need, in order to achieve more reliable fatigue life prediction and improve material design. In this work, the first steps in the development of a general probabilistic framework are presented, which uses experimental result as an input, retrieves missing experimental data through crystal plasticity (CP) simulations, and extracts correlations utilizing machine learning and Bayesian networks (BNs). More precisely, experimental results representing cycle-by-cycle data of a short crack growing through a beta-metastable titanium alloy, VST-55531, have been acquired via phase and diffraction contrast tomography. These results serve as an input for FFT-based CP simulations, which provide the micromechanical fields influenced by the presence of the crack, complementing the information available from the experiment. In order to assess the correlation between postulated SCDFM and experimental observations, the data is mined and analyzed utilizing BNs. Results show the ability of the framework to autonomously capture relevant correlations and the equivalence in the prediction capability of different postulated SCDFMs for the high cycle fatigue regime.

Probabilistically-Cued Patterns Trump Perfect Cues in Statistical Language Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Lany, Jill; Gómez, Rebecca L

2013-01-01

Probabilistically-cued co-occurrence relationships between word categories are common in natural languages but difficult to acquire. For example, in English, determiner-noun and auxiliary-verb dependencies both involve co-occurrence relationships, but determiner-noun relationships are more reliably marked by correlated distributional and phonological cues, and appear to be learned more readily. We tested whether experience with co-occurrence relationships that are more reliable promotes learning those that are less reliable using an artificial language paradigm. Prior experience with deterministically-cued contingencies did not promote learning of less reliably-cued structure, nor did prior experience with relationships instantiated in the same vocabulary. In contrast, prior experience with probabilistically-cued co-occurrence relationships instantiated in different vocabulary did enhance learning. Thus, experience with co-occurrence relationships sharing underlying structure but not vocabulary may be an important factor in learning grammatical patterns. Furthermore, experience with probabilistically-cued co-occurrence relationships, despite their difficultly for naïve learners, lays an important foundation for learning novel probabilistic structure.

Quantification of human reliability in probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirschberg, S.; Dankg, Vinh N.

1996-01-01

Human performance may substantially influence the reliability and safety of complex technical systems. For this reason, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) constitutes an important part of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSAs) or Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs). The results of these studies as well as analyses of past accidents and incidents clearly demonstrate the importance of human interactions. The contribution of human errors to the core damage frequency (CDF), as estimated in the Swedish nuclear PSAs, are between 15 and 88%. A survey of the FRAs in the Swiss PSAs shows that also for the Swiss nuclear power plants the estimated HE contributions are substantial (49% of the CDF due to internal events in the case of Beznau and 70% in the case of Muehleberg; for the total CDF, including external events, 25% respectively 20%). Similar results can be extracted from the PSAs carried out for French, German, and US plants. In PSAs or QRAs, the adequate treatment of the human interactions with the system is a key to the understanding of accident sequences and their relative importance to overall risk. The main objectives of HRA are: first, to ensure that the key human interactions are systematically identified and incorporated into the safety analysis in a traceable manner, and second, to quantify the probabilities of their success and failure. Adopting a structured and systematic approach to the assessment of human performance makes it possible to provide greater confidence that the safety and availability of human-machine systems is not unduly jeopardized by human performance problems. Section 2 discusses the different types of human interactions analysed in PSAs. More generally, the section presents how HRA fits in the overall safety analysis, that is, how the human interactions to be quantified are identified. Section 3 addresses the methods for quantification. Section 4 concludes the paper by presenting some recommendations and pointing out the limitations of the

Human reliability analysis for probabilistic safety assessments - review of methods and issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Srinivas, G.; Guptan, Rajee; Malhotra, P.K.; Ghadge, S.G.; Chandra, Umesh

2011-01-01

It is well known that the two major events in World Nuclear Power Plant Operating history, namely the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, were Human failure events. Subsequent to these two events, several significant changes have been incorporated in Plant Design, Control Room Design and Operator Training to reduce the possibility of Human errors during plant transients. Still, human error contribution to Risk in Nuclear Power Plant operations has been a topic of continued attention for research, development and analysis. Probabilistic Safety Assessments attempt to capture all potential human errors with a scientifically computed failure probability, through Human Reliability Analysis. Several methods are followed by different countries to quantify the Human error probability. This paper reviews the various popular methods being followed, critically examines them with reference to their criticisms and brings out issues for future research. (author)

Limited probabilistic risk assessment applications in plant backfitting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desaedeleer, G.

1987-01-01

Plant backfitting programs are defined on the basis of deterministic (e.g. Systematic Evaluation Program) or probabilistic (e.g. Probabilistic Risk Assessment) approaches. Each approach provides valuable assets in defining the program and has its own advantages and disadvantages. Ideally one should combine the strong points of each approach. This chapter summarizes actual experience gained from combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches to define and implement PWR backfitting programs. Such combinations relate to limited applications of probabilistic techniques and are illustrated for upgrading fluid systems. These evaluations allow sound and rational optimization systems upgrade. However, the boundaries of the reliability analysis need to be clearly defined and system reliability may have to go beyond classical boundaries (e.g. identification of weak links in support systems). Also the implementation of upgrade on a system per system basis is not necessarily cost-effective. (author)

An integrated approach to human reliability analysis -- decision analytic dynamic reliability model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.; Hukki, K.; Norros, L.; Pulkkinen, U.; Pyy, P.

1999-01-01

The reliability of human operators in process control is sensitive to the context. In many contemporary human reliability analysis (HRA) methods, this is not sufficiently taken into account. The aim of this article is that integration between probabilistic and psychological approaches in human reliability should be attempted. This is achieved first, by adopting such methods that adequately reflect the essential features of the process control activity, and secondly, by carrying out an interactive HRA process. Description of the activity context, probabilistic modeling, and psychological analysis form an iterative interdisciplinary sequence of analysis in which the results of one sub-task maybe input to another. The analysis of the context is carried out first with the help of a common set of conceptual tools. The resulting descriptions of the context promote the probabilistic modeling, through which new results regarding the probabilistic dynamics can be achieved. These can be incorporated in the context descriptions used as reference in the psychological analysis of actual performance. The results also provide new knowledge of the constraints of activity, by providing information of the premises of the operator's actions. Finally, the stochastic marked point process model gives a tool, by which psychological methodology may be interpreted and utilized for reliability analysis

Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Toft, H.S.

2010-01-01

Probabilistic design of wind turbines requires definition of the structural elements to be included in the probabilistic basis: e.g., blades, tower, foundation; identification of important failure modes; careful stochastic modeling of the uncertain parameters; recommendations for target reliability....... It is described how uncertainties in wind turbine design related to computational models, statistical data from test specimens, results from a few full-scale tests and from prototype wind turbines can be accounted for using the Maximum Likelihood Method and a Bayesian approach. Assessment of the optimal...... reliability level by cost-benefit optimization is illustrated by an offshore wind turbine example. Uncertainty modeling is illustrated by an example where physical, statistical and model uncertainties are estimated....

Development of advanced methods and related software for human reliability evaluation within probabilistic safety analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kosmowski, K.T.; Mertens, J.; Degen, G.; Reer, B.

1994-06-01

Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is an important part of Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA). The first part of this report consists of an overview of types of human behaviour and human error including the effect of significant performance shaping factors on human reliability. Particularly with regard to safety assessments for nuclear power plants a lot of HRA methods have been developed. The most important of these methods are presented and discussed in the report, together with techniques for incorporating HRA into PSA and with models of operator cognitive behaviour. Based on existing HRA methods the concept of a software system is described. For the development of this system the utilization of modern programming tools is proposed; the essential goal is the effective application of HRA methods. A possible integration of computeraided HRA within PSA is discussed. The features of Expert System Technology and examples of applications (PSA, HRA) are presented in four appendices. (orig.) [de

Probabilistic Design of Wave Energy Devices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Ferreira, C.B.

2011-01-01

Wave energy has a large potential for contributing significantly to production of renewable energy. However, the wave energy sector is still not able to deliver cost competitive and reliable solutions. But the sector has already demonstrated several proofs of concepts. The design of wave energy...... devices is a new and expanding technical area where there is no tradition for probabilistic design—in fact very little full scale devices has been build to date, so it can be said that no design tradition really exists in this area. For this reason it is considered to be of great importance to develop...... and advocate for a probabilistic design approach, as it is assumed (in other areas this has been demonstrated) that this leads to more economical designs compared to designs based on deterministic methods. In the present paper a general framework for probabilistic design and reliability analysis of wave energy...

Structural Reliability Methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Madsen, H. O.

The structural reliability methods quantitatively treat the uncertainty of predicting the behaviour and properties of a structure given the uncertain properties of its geometry, materials, and the actions it is supposed to withstand. This book addresses the probabilistic methods for evaluation...... of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis for these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature...... of the uncertainties and their interplay is the developed, step-by-step. The concepts presented are illustrated by numerous examples throughout the text....

Probabilistic Design of Coastal Flood Defences in Vietnam

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mai Van, C.

2010-01-01

This study further develops the method of probabilistic design and to address a knowledge gap in its application regarding safety and reliability, risk assessment and risk evaluation to the fields of flood defences. The thesis discusses: - a generic probabilistic design framework for assessing flood

A note on the application of probabilistic structural reliability methodology to nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maurer, H.A.

1978-01-01

The interest shown in the general prospects of primary energy in European countries prompted description of the actual European situation. Explanation of the needs for installation of nuclear power plants in most contries of the European Communities are given. Activities of the Commission of the European Communities to initiate a progressive harmonization of already existing European criteria, codes and complementary requirements in order to improve the structural reliability of components and systems of nuclear power plants are summarized. Finally, the applicability of a probabilistic safety analysis to facilitate decision-making as to safety by defining acceptable target and limit values, coupled with a subjective estimate as it is applied in the safety analyses performed in most European countries, is demonstrated. (Auth.)

Evaluation of Probabilistic Reasoning Evidence from Seventh-Graders

Science.gov (United States)

Erdem, Emrullah; Gürbüz, Ramazan

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate probabilistic reasoning of seventh-grade students (N=167) studying at randomly selected three middle schools that served low and middle socioeconomic areas in a city of Turkey. "Probabilistic Reasoning Test (PRT)" was developed and used as a data collection tool. In analyzing the data,…

When catalysis is useful for probabilistic entanglement transformation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Yuan; Duan Runyao; Ying Mingsheng

2004-01-01

We determine all 2x2 quantum states that can serve as useful catalysts for a given probabilistic entanglement transformation, in the sense that they can increase the maximal transformation probability. When higher-dimensional catalysts are considered, a sufficient and necessary condition is derived under which a certain probabilistic transformation has useful catalysts

Space Shuttle Rudder Speed Brake Actuator-A Case Study Probabilistic Fatigue Life and Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Oswald, Fred B.; Savage, Michael; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Space Shuttle fleet was originally intended to have a life of 100 flights for each vehicle, lasting over a 10-year period, with minimal scheduled maintenance or inspection. The first space shuttle flight was that of the Space Shuttle Columbia (OV-102), launched April 12, 1981. The disaster that destroyed Columbia occurred on its 28th flight, February 1, 2003, nearly 22 years after its first launch. In order to minimize risk of losing another Space Shuttle, a probabilistic life and reliability analysis was conducted for the Space Shuttle rudder/speed brake actuators to determine the number of flights the actuators could sustain. A life and reliability assessment of the actuator gears was performed in two stages: a contact stress fatigue model and a gear tooth bending fatigue model. For the contact stress analysis, the Lundberg-Palmgren bearing life theory was expanded to include gear-surface pitting for the actuator as a system. The mission spectrum of the Space Shuttle rudder/speed brake actuator was combined into equivalent effective hinge moment loads including an actuator input preload for the contact stress fatigue and tooth bending fatigue models. Gear system reliabilities are reported for both models and their combination. Reliability of the actuator bearings was analyzed separately, based on data provided by the actuator manufacturer. As a result of the analysis, the reliability of one half of a single actuator was calculated to be 98.6 percent for 12 flights. Accordingly, each actuator was subsequently limited to 12 flights before removal from service in the Space Shuttle.

Advances in reliability and system engineering

CERN Document Server

Davim, J

2017-01-01

This book presents original studies describing the latest research and developments in the area of reliability and systems engineering. It helps the reader identifying gaps in the current knowledge and presents fruitful areas for further research in the field. Among others, this book covers reliability measures, reliability assessment of multi-state systems, optimization of multi-state systems, continuous multi-state systems, new computational techniques applied to multi-state systems and probabilistic and non-probabilistic safety assessment.

Fully probabilistic design: the way for optimizing of concrete structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Laníková

Full Text Available Some standards for the design of concrete structures (e.g. EC2 and the original ČSN 73 1201-86 allow a structure to be designed by several methods. This contribution documents the fact that even if a structure does not comply with the partial reliability factor method, according to EC2, it can satisfy the conditions during the application of the fully probabilistic approach when using the same standard. From an example of the reliability of a prestressed spun concrete pole designed by the partial factor method and fully probabilistic approach according to the Eurocode it is evident that an expert should apply a more precise (though unfortunately more complicated method in the limiting cases. The Monte Carlo method, modified by the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS method, has been used for the calculation of reliability. Ultimate and serviceability limit states were checked for the partial factor method and fully probabilistic design. As a result of fully probabilistic design it is possible to obtain a more efficient design for a structure.

Probabilistic evaluation of design S-N curve and reliability assessment of ASME code-based evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Yongxiang

1999-01-01

A probabilistic evaluating approach of design S-N curve and a reliability assessment approach of the ASME code-based evaluation are presented on the basis of Langer S-N model-based P-S-N curves. The P-S-N curves are estimated by a so-called general maximum likelihood method. This method can be applied to deal with the virtual stress amplitude-crack initial life data which have a characteristics of double random variables. Investigation of a set of the virtual stress amplitude-crack initial life (S-N) data of 1Cr18Ni9Ti austenitic stainless steel-welded joint reveals that the P-S-N curves can give a good prediction of scatter regularity of the S-N data. Probabilistic evaluation of the design S-N curve with 0.9999 survival probability has considered various uncertainties, besides of the scatter of the S-N data, to an appropriate extent. The ASME code-based evaluation with 20 reduction factor on the mean life is much more conservative than that with 2 reduction factor on the stress amplitude. Evaluation of the latter in 666.61 MPa virtual stress amplitude is equivalent to 0.999522 survival probability and in 2092.18 MPa virtual stress amplitude equivalent to 0.9999999995 survival probability. This means that the evaluation in the low loading level may be non-conservative and in contrast, too conservative in the high loading level. Cause is that the reduction factors are constants and the factors can not take into account the general observation that scatter of the N data increases with the loading level decreasing. This has indicated that it is necessary to apply the probabilistic approach to the evaluation of design S-N curve

Probabilistic methods used in NUSS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, J.; Giuliani, P.

1985-01-01

Probabilistic considerations are used implicitly or explicitly in all technical areas. In the NUSS codes and guides the two areas of design and siting are those where more use is made of these concepts. A brief review of the relevant documents in these two areas is made in this paper. It covers the documents where either probabilistic considerations are implied or where probabilistic approaches are recommended in the evaluation of situations and of events. In the siting guides the review mainly covers the area of seismic hydrological and external man-made events analysis, as well as some aspects of meteorological extreme events analysis. Probabilistic methods are recommended in the design guides but they are not made a requirement. There are several reasons for this, mainly lack of reliable data and the absence of quantitative safety limits or goals against which to judge the design analysis. As far as practical, engineering judgement should be backed up by quantitative probabilistic analysis. Examples are given and the concept of design basis as used in NUSS design guides is explained. (author)

Non-probabilistic defect assessment for structures with cracks based on interval model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dai, Qiao; Zhou, Changyu; Peng, Jian; Chen, Xiangwei; He, Xiaohua

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Non-probabilistic approach is introduced to defect assessment. • Definition and establishment of IFAC are put forward. • Determination of assessment rectangle is proposed. • Solution of non-probabilistic reliability index is presented. -- Abstract: Traditional defect assessment methods conservatively treat uncertainty of parameters as safety factors, while the probabilistic method is based on the clear understanding of detailed statistical information of parameters. In this paper, the non-probabilistic approach is introduced to the failure assessment diagram (FAD) to propose a non-probabilistic defect assessment method for structures with cracks. This novel defect assessment method contains three critical processes: establishment of the interval failure assessment curve (IFAC), determination of the assessment rectangle, and solution of the non-probabilistic reliability degree. Based on the interval theory, uncertain parameters such as crack sizes, material properties and loads are considered as interval variables. As a result, the failure assessment curve (FAC) will vary in a certain range, which is defined as IFAC. And the assessment point will vary within a rectangle zone which is defined as an assessment rectangle. Based on the interval model, the establishment of IFAC and the determination of the assessment rectangle are presented. Then according to the interval possibility degree method, the non-probabilistic reliability degree of IFAC can be determined. Meanwhile, in order to clearly introduce the non-probabilistic defect assessment method, a numerical example for the assessment of a pipe with crack is given. In addition, the assessment result of the proposed method is compared with that of the traditional probabilistic method, which confirms that this non-probabilistic defect assessment can reasonably resolve the practical problem with interval variables

Non-probabilistic defect assessment for structures with cracks based on interval model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dai, Qiao; Zhou, Changyu, E-mail: changyu_zhou@163.com; Peng, Jian; Chen, Xiangwei; He, Xiaohua

2013-09-15

Highlights: • Non-probabilistic approach is introduced to defect assessment. • Definition and establishment of IFAC are put forward. • Determination of assessment rectangle is proposed. • Solution of non-probabilistic reliability index is presented. -- Abstract: Traditional defect assessment methods conservatively treat uncertainty of parameters as safety factors, while the probabilistic method is based on the clear understanding of detailed statistical information of parameters. In this paper, the non-probabilistic approach is introduced to the failure assessment diagram (FAD) to propose a non-probabilistic defect assessment method for structures with cracks. This novel defect assessment method contains three critical processes: establishment of the interval failure assessment curve (IFAC), determination of the assessment rectangle, and solution of the non-probabilistic reliability degree. Based on the interval theory, uncertain parameters such as crack sizes, material properties and loads are considered as interval variables. As a result, the failure assessment curve (FAC) will vary in a certain range, which is defined as IFAC. And the assessment point will vary within a rectangle zone which is defined as an assessment rectangle. Based on the interval model, the establishment of IFAC and the determination of the assessment rectangle are presented. Then according to the interval possibility degree method, the non-probabilistic reliability degree of IFAC can be determined. Meanwhile, in order to clearly introduce the non-probabilistic defect assessment method, a numerical example for the assessment of a pipe with crack is given. In addition, the assessment result of the proposed method is compared with that of the traditional probabilistic method, which confirms that this non-probabilistic defect assessment can reasonably resolve the practical problem with interval variables.

Reliability Analysis of Fatigue Fracture of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berzonskis, Arvydas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2016-01-01

in the volume of the casted ductile iron main shaft, on the reliability of the component. The probabilistic reliability analysis conducted is based on fracture mechanics models. Additionally, the utilization of the probabilistic reliability for operation and maintenance planning and quality control is discussed....

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shinaishin, M.A.

1988-06-01

The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shinaishin, M A

1988-06-15

The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

Stochastic Simulation and Forecast of Hydrologic Time Series Based on Probabilistic Chaos Expansion

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Z.; Ghaith, M.

2017-12-01

Hydrological processes are characterized by many complex features, such as nonlinearity, dynamics and uncertainty. How to quantify and address such complexities and uncertainties has been a challenging task for water engineers and managers for decades. To support robust uncertainty analysis, an innovative approach for the stochastic simulation and forecast of hydrologic time series is developed is this study. Probabilistic Chaos Expansions (PCEs) are established through probabilistic collocation to tackle uncertainties associated with the parameters of traditional hydrological models. The uncertainties are quantified in model outputs as Hermite polynomials with regard to standard normal random variables. Sequentially, multivariate analysis techniques are used to analyze the complex nonlinear relationships between meteorological inputs (e.g., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, etc.) and the coefficients of the Hermite polynomials. With the established relationships between model inputs and PCE coefficients, forecasts of hydrologic time series can be generated and the uncertainties in the future time series can be further tackled. The proposed approach is demonstrated using a case study in China and is compared to a traditional stochastic simulation technique, the Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) method. Results show that the proposed approach can serve as a reliable proxy to complicated hydrological models. It can provide probabilistic forecasting in a more computationally efficient manner, compared to the traditional MCMC method. This work provides technical support for addressing uncertainties associated with hydrological modeling and for enhancing the reliability of hydrological modeling results. Applications of the developed approach can be extended to many other complicated geophysical and environmental modeling systems to support the associated uncertainty quantification and risk analysis.

Probabilistic Modeling of Timber Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Köhler, J.D.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro

2005-01-01

The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) and of the COST action E24 'Reliability of Timber Structures'. The present...... proposal is based on discussions and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for components and connections. The recommended...

Probabilistic risk benchmark of the Brazilian electrical system; Risco probabilistico de referencia do sistema eletrico brasileiro

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soares, Neyl Hamilton Martelotta

2002-05-01

The main goal of this dissertation is to proceed a first numerical evaluation of the probabilistic risks magnitudes associated with the Brazilian Electrical network, considering the subsystems North, Northeast, South, Southeast and Mid West. This result is relevant because it can be used as an initial comparative reference for future reliability studies of the Brazilian Basic Grid. As a by-product, the whole set of criteria and procedures used in the work are described in detail. They may also serve as a preliminary base for future similar evaluations. (author)

Influence of probabilistic safety analysis on design and operation of PWR plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastl, W.; Hoertner, H.; Kafka, P.

1978-01-01

This paper gives a comprehensive presentation of the connections and influences of probabilistic safety analysis on design and operation of PWR plants. In this context a short historical retrospective view concerning probabilistic reliability analysis is given. In the main part of this paper some examples are presented in detail, showing special outcomes of such probabilistic investigations. Additional paragraphs illustrate some activities and issues in the field of probabilistic safety analysis

Probabilistic composition of preferences, theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Parracho Sant'Anna, Annibal

2015-01-01

Putting forward a unified presentation of the features and possible applications of probabilistic preferences composition, and serving as a methodology for decisions employing multiple criteria, this book maximizes reader insights into the evaluation in probabilistic terms and the development of composition approaches that do not depend on assigning weights to the criteria. With key applications in important areas of management such as failure modes, effects analysis and productivity analysis – together with explanations about the application of the concepts involved –this book makes available numerical examples of probabilistic transformation development and probabilistic composition. Useful not only as a reference source for researchers, but also in teaching classes of graduate courses in Production Engineering and Management Science, the key themes of the book will be of especial interest to researchers in the field of Operational Research.

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential

Utilization of probabilistic methods for evaluating the safety of PWRs built in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Queniart, D.; Brisbois, J.; Lanore, J.M.

1985-01-01

Firstly, it is recalled that, in France, PWRs are designed on a deterministic basis by studying the consequences of a limited number of conventional incidents whose estimated frequency is specified in order-of-magnitude terms and for which it is shown that the consequences, for each category of frequency, predominate over those of the other situations in the same category. These situations are called dimensioning situations. The paper then describes the use made of probabilistic methods. External attacks and loss of redundant systems are examined in particular. A probabilistic approach is in fact well suited to the evaluation of risks due, among other things, to aircraft crashes and the industrial environment. Analysis of the reliability of redundant systems has shown that, in the light of the overall risk assessment objective, their loss should be examined with a view to instituting counteraction to reduce the risks associated with such loss (particularly the introduction of special control procedures). Probabilistic methods are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the counteraction proposed and such a study has been carried out for total loss of electric power supply. Finally, the probabilistic study of hazard initiated post factum by the French safety authorities for the standardized 900 MW(e) power units is described. The study, which is not yet complete, will serve as the basis for a permanent safety analysis tool taking into account control procedures and the total operating experience acquired using these power units. (author)

Probabilistic assessment of faults

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foden, R.W.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is the process by which the probability (or frequency of occurrence) of reactor fault conditions which could lead to unacceptable consequences is assessed. The basic objective of a PSA is to allow a judgement to be made as to whether or not the principal probabilistic requirement is satisfied. It also gives insights into the reliability of the plant which can be used to identify possible improvements. This is explained in the article. The scope of a PSA and the PSA performed by the National Nuclear Corporation (NNC) for the Heysham II and Torness AGRs and Sizewell-B PWR are discussed. The NNC methods for hazards, common cause failure and operator error are mentioned. (UK)

Reliability high cycle fatigue design of gas turbine blading system using probabilistic goodman diagram

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herman Shen, M.-H. [Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States). Dept. of Aerospace Engineering and Aviation; Nicholas, T. [MLLN, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH (United States). Air Force Research Lab.

2001-07-01

A framework for the probabilistic analysis of high cycle fatigue is developed. The framework will be useful to U.S. Air Force and aeroengine manufacturers in the design of high cycle fatigue in disk or compressor components fabricated from Ti-6Al-4V under a range of loading conditions that might be encountered during service. The main idea of the framework is to characterize vibratory stresses from random input variables due to uncertainties such as crack location, loading, material properties, and manufacturing variability. The characteristics of such vibratory stresses are portrayed graphically as histograms, or probability density function (PDF). The outcome of the probability measures associated with all the values of a random variable exceeding the material capability is achieved by a failure function g(X) defined by the difference between the vibratory stress and Goodman line or surface such that the probability of HCF failure is P{sub f} =P(g(X<0)). Design can then be based on a go-no go criterion based on an assumed risk. The framework can be used to facilitate the development of design tools for the prediction of inspection schedules and reliability in aeroengine components. Such tools could lead ultimately to improved life extension schemes in aging aircraft, and more reliable methods for the design and inspection of critical components. (orig.)

Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: Phase 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

1984-10-01

A research program was initiated to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three-phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

Human Reliability in Probabilistic Safety Assessments; Fiabilidad Humana en los Analisis Probabilisticos de Seguridad

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nunez Mendez, J

1989-07-01

Nowadays a growing interest in environmental aspects is detected in our country. It implies an assessment of the risk involved in the industrial processes and installations in order to determine if those are into the acceptable limits. In these safety assessments, among which PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessments), can be pointed out the role played by the human being in the system is one of the more relevant subjects (This relevance has been demonstrated in the accidents happened) . However, in Spain there aren't manuals specifically dedicated to asses the human contribution to risk in the frame of PSAs. This report aims to improve this situation providing: a) a theoretical background to help the reader in the understanding of the nature of the human error, b) a quid to carry out a Human Reliability Analysis and c) a selected overview of the techniques and methodologies currently applied in this area. (Author) 20 refs.

Human Reliability in Probabilistic Safety Assessments; Fiabilidad Humana en los Analisis Probabilisticos de Seguridad

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nunez Mendez, J.

1989-07-01

Nowadays a growing interest in environmental aspects is detected in our country. It implies an assessment of the risk involved in the industrial processes and installations in order to determine if those are into the acceptable limits. In these safety assessments, among which PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessments), can be pointed out the role played by the human being in the system is one of the more relevant subjects (This relevance has been demonstrated in the accidents happened) . However, in Spain there aren't manuals specifically dedicated to asses the human contribution to risk in the frame of PSAs. This report aims to improve this situation providing: a) a theoretical background to help the reader in the understanding of the nature of the human error, b) a quid to carry out a Human Reliability Analysis and c) a selected overview of the techniques and methodologies currently applied in this area. (Author) 20 refs.

Human reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dougherty, E.M.; Fragola, J.R.

1988-01-01

The authors present a treatment of human reliability analysis incorporating an introduction to probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power generating stations. They treat the subject according to the framework established for general systems theory. Draws upon reliability analysis, psychology, human factors engineering, and statistics, integrating elements of these fields within a systems framework. Provides a history of human reliability analysis, and includes examples of the application of the systems approach

NASA Applications and Lessons Learned in Reliability Engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Fuller, Raymond P.

2011-01-01

Since the Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, communities across NASA have been developing and extensively using quantitative reliability and risk assessment methods in their decision making process. This paper discusses several reliability engineering applications that NASA has used over the year to support the design, development, and operation of critical space flight hardware. Specifically, the paper discusses several reliability engineering applications used by NASA in areas such as risk management, inspection policies, components upgrades, reliability growth, integrated failure analysis, and physics based probabilistic engineering analysis. In each of these areas, the paper provides a brief discussion of a case study to demonstrate the value added and the criticality of reliability engineering in supporting NASA project and program decisions to fly safely. Examples of these case studies discussed are reliability based life limit extension of Shuttle Space Main Engine (SSME) hardware, Reliability based inspection policies for Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) turbine disc, probabilistic structural engineering analysis for reliability prediction of the SSME alternate turbo-pump development, impact of ET foam reliability on the Space Shuttle System risk, and reliability based Space Shuttle upgrade for safety. Special attention is given in this paper to the physics based probabilistic engineering analysis applications and their critical role in evaluating the reliability of NASA development hardware including their potential use in a research and technology development environment.

Maximizing Statistical Power When Verifying Probabilistic Forecasts of Hydrometeorological Events

Science.gov (United States)

DeChant, C. M.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Hydrometeorological events (i.e. floods, droughts, precipitation) are increasingly being forecasted probabilistically, owing to the uncertainties in the underlying causes of the phenomenon. In these forecasts, the probability of the event, over some lead time, is estimated based on some model simulations or predictive indicators. By issuing probabilistic forecasts, agencies may communicate the uncertainty in the event occurring. Assuming that the assigned probability of the event is correct, which is referred to as a reliable forecast, the end user may perform some risk management based on the potential damages resulting from the event. Alternatively, an unreliable forecast may give false impressions of the actual risk, leading to improper decision making when protecting resources from extreme events. Due to this requisite for reliable forecasts to perform effective risk management, this study takes a renewed look at reliability assessment in event forecasts. Illustrative experiments will be presented, showing deficiencies in the commonly available approaches (Brier Score, Reliability Diagram). Overall, it is shown that the conventional reliability assessment techniques do not maximize the ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. In this regard, a theoretical formulation of the probabilistic event forecast verification framework will be presented. From this analysis, hypothesis testing with the Poisson-Binomial distribution is the most exact model available for the verification framework, and therefore maximizes one's ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. Application of this verification system was also examined within a real forecasting case study, highlighting the additional statistical power provided with the use of the Poisson-Binomial distribution.

Distributed collaborative probabilistic design of multi-failure structure with fluid-structure interaction using fuzzy neural network of regression

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Lu-Kai; Wen, Jie; Fei, Cheng-Wei; Bai, Guang-Chen

2018-05-01

To improve the computing efficiency and precision of probabilistic design for multi-failure structure, a distributed collaborative probabilistic design method-based fuzzy neural network of regression (FR) (called as DCFRM) is proposed with the integration of distributed collaborative response surface method and fuzzy neural network regression model. The mathematical model of DCFRM is established and the probabilistic design idea with DCFRM is introduced. The probabilistic analysis of turbine blisk involving multi-failure modes (deformation failure, stress failure and strain failure) was investigated by considering fluid-structure interaction with the proposed method. The distribution characteristics, reliability degree, and sensitivity degree of each failure mode and overall failure mode on turbine blisk are obtained, which provides a useful reference for improving the performance and reliability of aeroengine. Through the comparison of methods shows that the DCFRM reshapes the probability of probabilistic analysis for multi-failure structure and improves the computing efficiency while keeping acceptable computational precision. Moreover, the proposed method offers a useful insight for reliability-based design optimization of multi-failure structure and thereby also enriches the theory and method of mechanical reliability design.

Distributed collaborative probabilistic design for turbine blade-tip radial running clearance using support vector machine of regression

Science.gov (United States)

Fei, Cheng-Wei; Bai, Guang-Chen

2014-12-01

To improve the computational precision and efficiency of probabilistic design for mechanical dynamic assembly like the blade-tip radial running clearance (BTRRC) of gas turbine, a distribution collaborative probabilistic design method-based support vector machine of regression (SR)(called as DCSRM) is proposed by integrating distribution collaborative response surface method and support vector machine regression model. The mathematical model of DCSRM is established and the probabilistic design idea of DCSRM is introduced. The dynamic assembly probabilistic design of aeroengine high-pressure turbine (HPT) BTRRC is accomplished to verify the proposed DCSRM. The analysis results reveal that the optimal static blade-tip clearance of HPT is gained for designing BTRRC, and improving the performance and reliability of aeroengine. The comparison of methods shows that the DCSRM has high computational accuracy and high computational efficiency in BTRRC probabilistic analysis. The present research offers an effective way for the reliability design of mechanical dynamic assembly and enriches mechanical reliability theory and method.

Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hiemer, S.

2014-07-01

The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hiemer, S.

2014-01-01

The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

Probabilistic Design and Analysis Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Strack, William C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.

2010-01-01

PRODAF is a software package designed to aid analysts and designers in conducting probabilistic analysis of components and systems. PRODAF can integrate multiple analysis programs to ease the tedious process of conducting a complex analysis process that requires the use of multiple software packages. The work uses a commercial finite element analysis (FEA) program with modules from NESSUS to conduct a probabilistic analysis of a hypothetical turbine blade, disk, and shaft model. PRODAF applies the response surface method, at the component level, and extrapolates the component-level responses to the system level. Hypothetical components of a gas turbine engine are first deterministically modeled using FEA. Variations in selected geometrical dimensions and loading conditions are analyzed to determine the effects of the stress state within each component. Geometric variations include the cord length and height for the blade, inner radius, outer radius, and thickness, which are varied for the disk. Probabilistic analysis is carried out using developing software packages like System Uncertainty Analysis (SUA) and PRODAF. PRODAF was used with a commercial deterministic FEA program in conjunction with modules from the probabilistic analysis program, NESTEM, to perturb loads and geometries to provide a reliability and sensitivity analysis. PRODAF simplified the handling of data among the various programs involved, and will work with many commercial and opensource deterministic programs, probabilistic programs, or modules.

Probabilistic Analysis of Crack Width

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Marková

2000-01-01

Full Text Available Probabilistic analysis of crack width of a reinforced concrete element is based on the formulas accepted in Eurocode 2 and European Model Code 90. Obtained values of reliability index b seem to be satisfactory for the reinforced concrete slab that fulfils requirements for the crack width specified in Eurocode 2. However, the reliability of the slab seems to be insufficient when the European Model Code 90 is considered; reliability index is less than recommended value 1.5 for serviceability limit states indicated in Eurocode 1. Analysis of sensitivity factors of basic variables enables to find out variables significantly affecting the total crack width.

Probabilistic logics and probabilistic networks

CERN Document Server

Haenni, Rolf; Wheeler, Gregory; Williamson, Jon; Andrews, Jill

2014-01-01

Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks presents a groundbreaking framework within which various approaches to probabilistic logic naturally fit. Additionally, the text shows how to develop computationally feasible methods to mesh with this framework.

Structural hybrid reliability index and its convergent solving method based on random–fuzzy–interval reliability model

OpenAIRE

Hai An; Ling Zhou; Hui Sun

2016-01-01

Aiming to resolve the problems of a variety of uncertainty variables that coexist in the engineering structure reliability analysis, a new hybrid reliability index to evaluate structural hybrid reliability, based on the random–fuzzy–interval model, is proposed in this article. The convergent solving method is also presented. First, the truncated probability reliability model, the fuzzy random reliability model, and the non-probabilistic interval reliability model are introduced. Then, the new...

Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. H. Ramos

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

Application of the probabilistic method at the E.D.F

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gachot, Bernard

1976-01-01

Having first evoked the problems arising from the definition of a so-called 'acceptable risk', the probabilistic study programme on safety carried out at the E.D.F. is described. The different aspects of the probabilistic estimation of a hazard are presented as well as the different steps i.e. collecting the information, carrying out a quantitative and qualitative analysis, which characterize the probabilistic study of safety problems. The problem of data determination is considered on reliability of the equipment, noting as a conclusion, that in spite of the lack of accuracy of the present data, the probabilistic methods already appear as a highly valuable tool favouring an homogenous and coherent approach of nuclear plant safety [fr

Safety-specific benefit of the probabilistic evaluation of older nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoertner, H.; Koeberlein, K.

1991-01-01

The report summarizes the experience of the GRS obtained within the framework of a probabilistic evaluation of older nuclear power plants and the German risk study. The applied methodology and the problems involved are explained first. After a brief summary of probabilistic analyses carried out for German nuclear power plants, reliability analyses for older systems are discussed in detail. The findings from the probabilistic safety analyses and the conclusions drawn are presented. (orig.) [de

Deterministic and probabilistic approach to safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heuser, F.W.

1980-01-01

The examples discussed in this paper show that reliability analysis methods fairly well can be applied in order to interpret deterministic safety criteria in quantitative terms. For further improved extension of applied reliability analysis it has turned out that the influence of operational and control systems and of component protection devices should be considered with the aid of reliability analysis methods in detail. Of course, an extension of probabilistic analysis must be accompanied by further development of the methods and a broadening of the data base. (orig.)

Advances in probabilistic databases for uncertain information management

CERN Document Server

Yan, Li

2013-01-01

This book covers a fast-growing topic in great depth and focuses on the technologies and applications of probabilistic data management. It aims to provide a single account of current studies in probabilistic data management. The objective of the book is to provide the state of the art information to researchers, practitioners, and graduate students of information technology of intelligent information processing, and at the same time serving the information technology professional faced with non-traditional applications that make the application of conventional approaches difficult or impossible.

Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: phase 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

1985-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated a research program in 1984 to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

Probabilistic approaches to life prediction of nuclear plant structural components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villain, B.; Pitner, P.; Procaccia, H.

1996-01-01

In the last decade there has been an increasing interest at EDF in developing and applying probabilistic methods for a variety of purposes. In the field of structural integrity and reliability they are used to evaluate the effect of deterioration due to aging mechanisms, mainly on major passive structural components such as steam generators, pressure vessels and piping in nuclear plants. Because there can be numerous uncertainties involved in a assessment of the performance of these structural components, probabilistic methods. The benefits of a probabilistic approach are the clear treatment of uncertainly and the possibility to perform sensitivity studies from which it is possible to identify and quantify the effect of key factors and mitigative actions. They thus provide information to support effective decisions to optimize In-Service Inspection planning and maintenance strategies and for realistic lifetime prediction or reassessment. The purpose of the paper is to discuss and illustrate the methods available at EDF for probabilistic component life prediction. This includes a presentation of software tools in classical, Bayesian and structural reliability, and an application on two case studies (steam generator tube bundle, reactor pressure vessel). (authors)

Probabilistic approaches to life prediction of nuclear plant structural components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villain, B.; Pitner, P.; Procaccia, H.

1996-01-01

In the last decade there has been an increasing interest at EDF in developing and applying probabilistic methods for a variety of purposes. In the field of structural integrity and reliability they are used to evaluate the effect of deterioration due to aging mechanisms, mainly on major passive structural components such as steam generators, pressure vessels and piping in nuclear plants. Because there can be numerous uncertainties involved in an assessment of the performance of these structural components, probabilistic methods provide an attractive alternative or supplement to more conventional deterministic methods. The benefits of a probabilistic approach are the clear treatment of uncertainty and the possibility to perform sensitivity studies from which it is possible to identify and quantify the effect of key factors and mitigative actions. They thus provide information to support effective decisions to optimize In-Service Inspection planning and maintenance strategies and for realistic lifetime prediction or reassessment. The purpose of the paper is to discuss and illustrate the methods available at EDF for probabilistic component life prediction. This includes a presentation of software tools in classical, Bayesian and structural reliability, and an application on two case studies (steam generator tube bundle, reactor pressure vessel)

Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) Version 5.0: Data loading manual. Volume 10

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

VanHorn, R.L.; Wolfram, L.M.; Fowler, R.D.; Beck, S.T.; Smith, C.L.

1995-04-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) suite of programs can be used to organize and standardize in an electronic format information from probabilistic risk assessments or individual plant examinations. The Models and Results Database (MAR-D) program of the SAPHIRE suite serves as the repository for probabilistic risk assessment and individual plant examination data and information. This report demonstrates by examples the common electronic and manual methods used to load these types of data. It is not a stand alone document but references documents that contribute information relative to the data loading process. This document provides a more detailed discussion and instructions for using SAPHIRE 5.0 only when enough information on a specific topic is not provided by another available source

Probabilistic approach to manipulator kinematics and dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rao, S.S.; Bhatti, P.K.

2001-01-01

A high performance, high speed robotic arm must be able to manipulate objects with a high degree of accuracy and repeatability. As with any other physical system, there are a number of factors causing uncertainties in the behavior of a robotic manipulator. These factors include manufacturing and assembling tolerances, and errors in the joint actuators and controllers. In order to study the effect of these uncertainties on the robotic end-effector and to obtain a better insight into the manipulator behavior, the manipulator kinematics and dynamics are modeled using a probabilistic approach. Based on the probabilistic model, kinematic and dynamic performance criteria are defined to provide measures of the behavior of the robotic end-effector. Techniques are presented to compute the kinematic and dynamic reliabilities of the manipulator. The effects of tolerances associated with the various manipulator parameters on the reliabilities are studied. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the procedures

Probabilistic Model for Fatigue Crack Growth in Welded Bridge Details

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Yalamas, Thierry

2013-01-01

In the present paper a probabilistic model for fatigue crack growth in welded steel details in road bridges is presented. The probabilistic model takes the influence of bending stresses in the joints into account. The bending stresses can either be introduced by e.g. misalignment or redistribution...... of stresses in the structure. The fatigue stress ranges are estimated from traffic measurements and a generic bridge model. Based on the probabilistic models for the resistance and load the reliability is estimated for a typical welded steel detail. The results show that large misalignments in the joints can...

Probabilistic Simulation of Multi-Scale Composite Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Chamis, Christos C.

2012-01-01

A methodology is developed to computationally assess the non-deterministic composite response at all composite scales (from micro to structural) due to the uncertainties in the constituent (fiber and matrix) properties, in the fabrication process and in structural variables (primitive variables). The methodology is computationally efficient for simulating the probability distributions of composite behavior, such as material properties, laminate and structural responses. Bi-products of the methodology are probabilistic sensitivities of the composite primitive variables. The methodology has been implemented into the computer codes PICAN (Probabilistic Integrated Composite ANalyzer) and IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). The accuracy and efficiency of this methodology are demonstrated by simulating the uncertainties in composite typical laminates and comparing the results with the Monte Carlo simulation method. Available experimental data of composite laminate behavior at all scales fall within the scatters predicted by PICAN. Multi-scaling is extended to simulate probabilistic thermo-mechanical fatigue and to simulate the probabilistic design of a composite redome in order to illustrate its versatility. Results show that probabilistic fatigue can be simulated for different temperature amplitudes and for different cyclic stress magnitudes. Results also show that laminate configurations can be selected to increase the redome reliability by several orders of magnitude without increasing the laminate thickness--a unique feature of structural composites. The old reference denotes that nothing fundamental has been done since that time.

Human reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Embrey, D.E.

1987-01-01

Concepts and techniques of human reliability have been developed and are used mostly in probabilistic risk assessment. For this, the major application of human reliability assessment has been to identify the human errors which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. Some of the major issues within human reliability studies are reviewed and it is shown how these are applied to the assessment of human failures in systems. This is done under the following headings; models of human performance used in human reliability assessment, the nature of human error, classification of errors in man-machine systems, practical aspects, human reliability modelling in complex situations, quantification and examination of human reliability, judgement based approaches, holistic techniques and decision analytic approaches. (UK)

Probabilistic Durability Analysis in Advanced Engineering Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Kudzys

2000-01-01

Full Text Available Expedience of probabilistic durability concepts and approaches in advanced engineering design of building materials, structural members and systems is considered. Target margin values of structural safety and serviceability indices are analyzed and their draft values are presented. Analytical methods of the cumulative coefficient of correlation and the limit transient action effect for calculation of reliability indices are given. Analysis can be used for probabilistic durability assessment of carrying and enclosure metal, reinforced concrete, wood, plastic, masonry both homogeneous and sandwich or composite structures and some kinds of equipments. Analysis models can be applied in other engineering fields.

Probabilistic approach to EMP assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bevensee, R.M.; Cabayan, H.S.; Deadrick, F.J.; Martin, L.C.; Mensing, R.W.

1980-09-01

The development of nuclear EMP hardness requirements must account for uncertainties in the environment, in interaction and coupling, and in the susceptibility of subsystems and components. Typical uncertainties of the last two kinds are briefly summarized, and an assessment methodology is outlined, based on a probabilistic approach that encompasses the basic concepts of reliability. It is suggested that statements of survivability be made compatible with system reliability. Validation of the approach taken for simple antenna/circuit systems is performed with experiments and calculations that involve a Transient Electromagnetic Range, numerical antenna modeling, separate device failure data, and a failure analysis computer program

Fault trees and the impact of human variability on probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

It has long been recognized that human reliability is an important factor in probabilistic risk analysis. In the field, this is true in a direct operational sense as well as in the areas of installation and maintenance. The interest in quantification arises from the desire to achieve optimum design in the human factors sense (operability-maintainability) and from the need to include human reliability considerations in probabilistic risk analysis to achieve complete and valid risk evaluation. In order to integrate human reliability into the system analysis, it is necessary to consider two questions. These relate to the way that human functions fit into the existing analytical models and methods as well as the nature of human failure mechanisms, modes and failure (error) rates

Use of probabilistic design methods for NASA applications. [to be used in design phase of Space Transportation Main Engine

Science.gov (United States)

Safie, Fayssal M.

1992-01-01

This paper presents a reliability evaluation process designed to improve the reliability of advanced launch systems. The work performed includes the development of a reliability prediction methodology to be used in the design phase of the Space Transportation Main Engine (STME). This includes prediction techniques which use historical data bases as well as deterministic and probabilistic engineering models for predicting design reliability. In summary, this paper describes a probabilistic design approach for the next-generation liquid rocket engine, the STME.

Probabilistic approaches for geotechnical site characterization and slope stability analysis

CERN Document Server

Cao, Zijun; Li, Dianqing

2017-01-01

This is the first book to revisit geotechnical site characterization from a probabilistic point of view and provide rational tools to probabilistically characterize geotechnical properties and underground stratigraphy using limited information obtained from a specific site. This book not only provides new probabilistic approaches for geotechnical site characterization and slope stability analysis, but also tackles the difficulties in practical implementation of these approaches. In addition, this book also develops efficient Monte Carlo simulation approaches for slope stability analysis and implements these approaches in a commonly available spreadsheet environment. These approaches and the software package are readily available to geotechnical practitioners and alleviate them from reliability computational algorithms. The readers will find useful information for a non-specialist to determine project-specific statistics of geotechnical properties and to perform probabilistic analysis of slope stability.

Probabilistic Modeling of the Fatigue Crack Growth Rate for Ni-base Alloy X-750

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, J.Y.; Nam, H.O.; Hwang, I.S.; Lee, T.H.

2012-01-01

Extending the operating life of existing nuclear power plants (NPP's) beyond 60 years. Many aging problems of passive components such as PWSCC, IASCC, FAC and Corrosion Fatigue; Safety analysis: Deterministic analysis + Probabilistic analysis; Many uncertainties of parameters or relationship in general probabilistic analysis such as probabilistic safety assessment (PSA); Bayesian inference: Decreasing uncertainties by updating unknown parameter; Ensuring the reliability of passive components (e.g. pipes) as well as active components (e.g. valve, pump) in NPP's; Developing probabilistic model for failures; Updating the fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR)

Reliability Calculations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Kurt Erling

1986-01-01

Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmalz, F.

1991-01-01

In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

A probabilistic bridge safety evaluation against floods.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Kuo-Wei; Muto, Yasunori; Chen, Wei-Lun; Wu, Bang-Ho

2016-01-01

To further capture the influences of uncertain factors on river bridge safety evaluation, a probabilistic approach is adopted. Because this is a systematic and nonlinear problem, MPP-based reliability analyses are not suitable. A sampling approach such as a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) or importance sampling is often adopted. To enhance the efficiency of the sampling approach, this study utilizes Bayesian least squares support vector machines to construct a response surface followed by an MCS, providing a more precise safety index. Although there are several factors impacting the flood-resistant reliability of a bridge, previous experiences and studies show that the reliability of the bridge itself plays a key role. Thus, the goal of this study is to analyze the system reliability of a selected bridge that includes five limit states. The random variables considered here include the water surface elevation, water velocity, local scour depth, soil property and wind load. Because the first three variables are deeply affected by river hydraulics, a probabilistic HEC-RAS-based simulation is performed to capture the uncertainties in those random variables. The accuracy and variation of our solutions are confirmed by a direct MCS to ensure the applicability of the proposed approach. The results of a numerical example indicate that the proposed approach can efficiently provide an accurate bridge safety evaluation and maintain satisfactory variation.

Probabilistic design of nuclear structures: a summary of state of the art and research needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravindra, M.K.; Walser, A.

1978-01-01

This paper provides an overview of ongoing research in probabilistic design of nuclear structures. The main areas of review are (1) loads, (2) load combinations, (3) missiles, (4) design criteria, (5) seismic safety, (6) system reliability, (7) hazard analysis, and (8) probabilistic response. A consistent framework of probabilistic design of nuclear structures is proposed. Areas of further research and data collection are suggested. (Auth.)

Modeling and Quantification of Team Performance in Human Reliability Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeffrey C. JOe; Ronald L. Boring

2014-06-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) are important technical contributors to the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) risk-informed and performance based approach to regulating U.S. commercial nuclear activities. Furthermore, all currently operating commercial NPPs in the U.S. are required by federal regulation to be staffed with crews of operators. Yet, aspects of team performance are underspecified in most HRA methods that are widely used in the nuclear industry. There are a variety of "emergent" team cognition and teamwork errors (e.g., communication errors) that are 1) distinct from individual human errors, and 2) important to understand from a PRA perspective. The lack of robust models or quantification of team performance is an issue that affects the accuracy and validity of HRA methods and models, leading to significant uncertainty in estimating HEPs. This paper describes research that has the objective to model and quantify team dynamics and teamwork within NPP control room crews for risk informed applications, thereby improving the technical basis of HRA, which improves the risk-informed approach the NRC uses to regulate the U.S. commercial nuclear industry.

Probabilistic Analysis of Failures Mechanisms of Large Dams

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shams Ghahfarokhi, G.

2014-01-01

Risk and reliability analysis is presently being performed in almost all fields of engineering depending upon the specific field and its particular area. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA), also called quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is a central feature of hydraulic engineering structural design.

Comparison of methods for dependency determination between human failure events within human reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepis, M.

2007-01-01

The Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a highly subjective evaluation of human performance, which is an input for probabilistic safety assessment, which deals with many parameters of high uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to show that subjectivism can have a large impact on human reliability results and consequently on probabilistic safety assessment results and applications. The objective is to identify the key features, which may decrease of subjectivity of human reliability analysis. Human reliability methods are compared with focus on dependency comparison between Institute Jozef Stefan - Human Reliability Analysis (IJS-HRA) and Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H). Results show large differences in the calculated human error probabilities for the same events within the same probabilistic safety assessment, which are the consequence of subjectivity. The subjectivity can be reduced by development of more detailed guidelines for human reliability analysis with many practical examples for all steps of the process of evaluation of human performance. (author)

Comparison of Methods for Dependency Determination between Human Failure Events within Human Reliability Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepin, M.

2008-01-01

The human reliability analysis (HRA) is a highly subjective evaluation of human performance, which is an input for probabilistic safety assessment, which deals with many parameters of high uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to show that subjectivism can have a large impact on human reliability results and consequently on probabilistic safety assessment results and applications. The objective is to identify the key features, which may decrease subjectivity of human reliability analysis. Human reliability methods are compared with focus on dependency comparison between Institute Jozef Stefan human reliability analysis (IJS-HRA) and standardized plant analysis risk human reliability analysis (SPAR-H). Results show large differences in the calculated human error probabilities for the same events within the same probabilistic safety assessment, which are the consequence of subjectivity. The subjectivity can be reduced by development of more detailed guidelines for human reliability analysis with many practical examples for all steps of the process of evaluation of human performance

Probabilistic analysis of crack containing structures with the PARIS code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brueckner-Foit, A.

1987-10-01

The basic features of the PARIS code which has been developed for the calculation of failure probabilities of crack containing structures are explained. An important issue in the reliability analysis of cracked components is the probabilistic leak-before-break behaviour. Formulae for the leak and break probabilities are derived and it is shown how a leak detection system influences the results. An example taken from nuclear applications illustrates the details of the probabilistic leak-before-break analysis. (orig.) [de

Nuclear plant reliability data system. 1979 annual reports of cumulative system and component reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1979-01-01

The primary purposes of the information in these reports are the following: to provide operating statistics of safety-related systems within a unit which may be used to compare and evaluate reliability performance and to provide failure mode and failure rate statistics on components which may be used in failure mode effects analysis, fault hazard analysis, probabilistic reliability analysis, and so forth

Durability reliability analysis for corroding concrete structures under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hao

2018-02-01

This paper presents a durability reliability analysis of reinforced concrete structures subject to the action of marine chloride. The focus is to provide insight into the role of epistemic uncertainties on durability reliability. The corrosion model involves a number of variables whose probabilistic characteristics cannot be fully determined due to the limited availability of supporting data. All sources of uncertainty, both aleatory and epistemic, should be included in the reliability analysis. Two methods are available to formulate the epistemic uncertainty: the imprecise probability-based method and the purely probabilistic method in which the epistemic uncertainties are modeled as random variables. The paper illustrates how the epistemic uncertainties are modeled and propagated in the two methods, and shows how epistemic uncertainties govern the durability reliability.

An approach for assessing human decision reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pyy, P.

2000-01-01

This paper presents a method to study human reliability in decision situations related to nuclear power plant disturbances. Decisions often play a significant role in handling of emergency situations. The method may be applied to probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) in cases where decision making is an important dimension of an accident sequence. Such situations are frequent e.g. in accident management. In this paper, a modelling approach for decision reliability studies is first proposed. Then, a case study with two decision situations with relatively different characteristics is presented. Qualitative and quantitative findings of the study are discussed. In very simple decision cases with time pressure, time reliability correlation proved out to be a feasible reliability modelling method. In all other decision situations, more advanced probabilistic decision models have to be used. Finally, decision probability assessment by using simulator run results and expert judgement is presented

Probabilistic modelling of overflow, surcharge and flooding in urban drainage using the first-order reliability method and parameterization of local rain series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Willems, Patrick

2007-01-01

Failure of urban drainage systems may occur due to surcharge or flooding at specific manholes in the system, or due to overflows from combined sewer systems to receiving waters. To quantify the probability or return period of failure, standard approaches make use of the simulation of design storms...... or long historical rainfall series in a hydrodynamic model of the urban drainage system. In this paper, an alternative probabilistic method is investigated: the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). To apply this method, a long rainfall time series was divided in rain storms (rain events), and each rain...

Reliability Assessment and Reliability-Based Inspection and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ramírez, José G. Rangel; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2009-01-01

Probabilistic methodologies represent an important tool to identify the suitable strategy to inspect and deal with the deterioration in structures such as offshore wind turbines (OWT). Reliability based methods such as Risk Based Inspection (RBI) planning may represent a proper methodology to opt...

Sequential optimization and reliability assessment method for metal forming processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahai, Atul; Schramm, Uwe; Buranathiti, Thaweepat; Chen Wei; Cao Jian; Xia, Cedric Z.

2004-01-01

Uncertainty is inevitable in any design process. The uncertainty could be due to the variations in geometry of the part, material properties or due to the lack of knowledge about the phenomena being modeled itself. Deterministic design optimization does not take uncertainty into account and worst case scenario assumptions lead to vastly over conservative design. Probabilistic design, such as reliability-based design and robust design, offers tools for making robust and reliable decisions under the presence of uncertainty in the design process. Probabilistic design optimization often involves double-loop procedure for optimization and iterative probabilistic assessment. This results in high computational demand. The high computational demand can be reduced by replacing computationally intensive simulation models with less costly surrogate models and by employing Sequential Optimization and reliability assessment (SORA) method. The SORA method uses a single-loop strategy with a series of cycles of deterministic optimization and reliability assessment. The deterministic optimization and reliability assessment is decoupled in each cycle. This leads to quick improvement of design from one cycle to other and increase in computational efficiency. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of Sequential Optimization and Reliability Assessment (SORA) method when applied to designing a sheet metal flanging process. Surrogate models are used as less costly approximations to the computationally expensive Finite Element simulations

Failure probability assessment of wall-thinned nuclear pipes using probabilistic fracture mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang-Min; Chang, Yoon-Suk; Choi, Jae-Boong; Kim, Young-Jin

2006-01-01

The integrity of nuclear piping system has to be maintained during operation. In order to maintain the integrity, reliable assessment procedures including fracture mechanics analysis, etc., are required. Up to now, this has been performed using conventional deterministic approaches even though there are many uncertainties to hinder a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic approaches are considered as an appropriate method for piping system evaluation. The objectives of this paper are to estimate the failure probabilities of wall-thinned pipes in nuclear secondary systems and to propose limited operating conditions under different types of loadings. To do this, a probabilistic assessment program using reliability index and simulation techniques was developed and applied to evaluate failure probabilities of wall-thinned pipes subjected to internal pressure, bending moment and combined loading of them. The sensitivity analysis results as well as prototypal integrity assessment results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic assessment program, necessity of practical evaluation reflecting combined loading condition and operation considering limited condition

Reliability Evaluation and Probabilistic Design of Coastal Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Burcharth, H. F.

1993-01-01

Conventional design practice for coastal structures is deterministic in nature and is based on the concept of a design load, which should not exceed the resistance (carrying capacity) of the structure. The design load is usually defined on a probabilistic basis as a characteristic value of the load......, e.g. the expectation (mean) value of the lOO-year return period event, however, often without consideration of the involved uncertainties. The resistance is in most cases defined in terms of the load which causes a certain design impact or damage to the structure and is not given as an ultimate...... force or deformation. This is because most of the available design formulae only give the relationship between wave characteristics and structural response, e.g. in terms of run-up, overtopping, armour layer damage etc. An example is the Hudson formula for armour layer stability. Almost all such design...

Probabilistic analysis of modernization options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wunderlich, W.O.; Giles, J.E.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on benefit-cost analysis for hydropower operations, a standard procedure for reaching planning decisions. Cost overruns and benefit shortfalls are also common occurrences. One reason for the difficulty of predicting future benefits and costs is that they usually cannot be represented with sufficient reliability by accurate values, because of the many uncertainties that enter the analysis through assumptions on inputs and system parameters. Therefore, ranges of variables need to be analyzed instead of single values. As a consequence, the decision criteria, such as net benefit and benefit-cost ratio, also vary over some range. A probabilistic approach will be demonstrated as a tool for assessing the reliability of the results

Assuring the reliability of structural components - experimental data and non-destructive examination requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lucia, A.C.

1984-01-01

The probability of failure of a structural component can be estimated by either statistical methods or a probabilistic structural reliability approach (where the failure is seen as a level crossing of a damage stochastic process which develops in space and in time). The probabilistic approach has the advantage that it makes available not only an absolute value of the failure probability but also a lot of additional information. The disadvantage of the probabilistic approach is its complexity. It is discussed for the following situations: reliability of a structural component, material properties, data for fatigue crack growth evaluation, a bench mark exercise on reactor pressure vessel failure probability computation, and non-destructive examination for assuring a given level of structural reliability. (U.K.)

Key attributes of the SAPHIRE risk and reliability analysis software for risk-informed probabilistic applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Curtis; Knudsen, James; Kvarfordt, Kellie; Wood, Ted

2008-01-01

The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has led to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30-40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities, which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-05-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation

CERN Document Server

Reich, Sebastian

2015-01-01

In this book the authors describe the principles and methods behind probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation. Instead of focusing on particular application areas, the authors adopt a general dynamical systems approach, with a profusion of low-dimensional, discrete-time numerical examples designed to build intuition about the subject. Part I explains the mathematical framework of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty quantification. Part II is devoted to Bayesian filtering algorithms, from classical data assimilation algorithms such as the Kalman filter, variational techniques, and sequential Monte Carlo methods, through to more recent developments such as the ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble transform filters. The McKean approach to sequential filtering in combination with coupling of measures serves as a unifying mathematical framework throughout Part II. Assuming only some basic familiarity with probability, this book is an ideal introduction for graduate students in ap...

Reliability and Cost Impacts for Attritable Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2017-03-23

on reliability and cost: a probabilistic model. Electric Power Systems Research, 72(3), 213-224. Kalbfleisch, J.D. & Prentice, R.L. (1980). The...copyright protection in the United States. AFIT-ENV-MS-17-M-172 RELIABILITY AND COST IMPACTS FOR ATTRITABLE SYSTEMS THESIS Presented to... power of discrete time Markov chains, whether homogeneous or non-homogeneous, to model the reliability and dependability of repairable systems should

Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardung von Hardung, H.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

Japanese round robin analysis for probabilistic fracture mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yagawa, G.; Yoshimura, S.; Handa, N.

1991-01-01

Recently attention is focused on the probabilistic fracture mechanics, a branch of fracture mechanics with probability theory for a rational mean to assess the strength of components and structures. In particular, the probabilistic fracture mechanics is recognized as the powerful means for quantitative investigation of significance of factors and rational evaluation of life on problems involving a number of uncertainties, such as degradation of material strength, accuracy and frequency of inspection. Comparison with reference experiments are generally employed to assure the analytical accuracy. However, accuracy and reliability of analytical methods in the probabilistic fracture mechanics are hardly verified by experiments. Therefore, it is strongly needed to verify the probabilistic fracture mechanics through the round robin analysis. This paper describes results from the round robin analysis of flat plate with semi-elliptic cracks on the surface, conducted by the PFM Working Group of LE Subcommittee of the Japan Welding Society under the contract of the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute and participated by Tokyo University, Yokohama National University, the Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Corporation, Tokyo Electric Power Co. Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Toshiba Corporation, Kawasaki Heavy Industry Co. and Mitsubishi Heavy Industry Co. (author)

Damage tolerance reliability analysis of automotive spot-welded joints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Ni Kan

2003-01-01

This paper develops a damage tolerance reliability analysis methodology for automotive spot-welded joints under multi-axial and variable amplitude loading history. The total fatigue life of a spot weld is divided into two parts, crack initiation and crack propagation. The multi-axial loading history is obtained from transient response finite element analysis of a vehicle model. A three-dimensional finite element model of a simplified joint with four spot welds is developed for static stress/strain analysis. A probabilistic Miner's rule is combined with a randomized strain-life curve family and the stress/strain analysis result to develop a strain-based probabilistic fatigue crack initiation life prediction for spot welds. Afterwards, the fatigue crack inside the base material sheet is modeled as a surface crack. Then a probabilistic crack growth model is combined with the stress analysis result to develop a probabilistic fatigue crack growth life prediction for spot welds. Both methods are implemented with MSC/NASTRAN and MSC/FATIGUE software, and are useful for reliability assessment of automotive spot-welded joints against fatigue and fracture

Probabilistic Analysis of a Composite Crew Module

Science.gov (United States)

Mason, Brian H.; Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan

2011-01-01

An approach for conducting reliability-based analysis (RBA) of a Composite Crew Module (CCM) is presented. The goal is to identify and quantify the benefits of probabilistic design methods for the CCM and future space vehicles. The coarse finite element model from a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) project is used as the baseline deterministic analysis model to evaluate the performance of the CCM using a strength-based failure index. The first step in the probabilistic analysis process is the determination of the uncertainty distributions for key parameters in the model. Analytical data from water landing simulations are used to develop an uncertainty distribution, but such data were unavailable for other load cases. The uncertainty distributions for the other load scale factors and the strength allowables are generated based on assumed coefficients of variation. Probability of first-ply failure is estimated using three methods: the first order reliability method (FORM), Monte Carlo simulation, and conditional sampling. Results for the three methods were consistent. The reliability is shown to be driven by first ply failure in one region of the CCM at the high altitude abort load set. The final predicted probability of failure is on the order of 10-11 due to the conservative nature of the factors of safety on the deterministic loads.

Probabilistic Decision Graphs - Combining Verification and AI Techniques for Probabilistic Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2004-01-01

We adopt probabilistic decision graphs developed in the field of automated verification as a tool for probabilistic model representation and inference. We show that probabilistic inference has linear time complexity in the size of the probabilistic decision graph, that the smallest probabilistic ...

Reliability-Based Robustness Analysis for a Croatian Sports Hall

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Čizmar, Dean; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2011-01-01

This paper presents a probabilistic approach for structural robustness assessment for a timber structure built a few years ago. The robustness analysis is based on a structural reliability based framework for robustness and a simplified mechanical system modelling of a timber truss system....... A complex timber structure with a large number of failure modes is modelled with only a few dominant failure modes. First, a component based robustness analysis is performed based on the reliability indices of the remaining elements after the removal of selected critical elements. The robustness...... is expressed and evaluated by a robustness index. Next, the robustness is assessed using system reliability indices where the probabilistic failure model is modelled by a series system of parallel systems....

Learning Probabilistic Logic Models from Probabilistic Examples.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jianzhong; Muggleton, Stephen; Santos, José

2008-10-01

We revisit an application developed originally using abductive Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) for modeling inhibition in metabolic networks. The example data was derived from studies of the effects of toxins on rats using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) time-trace analysis of their biofluids together with background knowledge representing a subset of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG). We now apply two Probabilistic ILP (PILP) approaches - abductive Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) and PRogramming In Statistical modeling (PRISM) to the application. Both approaches support abductive learning and probability predictions. Abductive SLPs are a PILP framework that provides possible worlds semantics to SLPs through abduction. Instead of learning logic models from non-probabilistic examples as done in ILP, the PILP approach applied in this paper is based on a general technique for introducing probability labels within a standard scientific experimental setting involving control and treated data. Our results demonstrate that the PILP approach provides a way of learning probabilistic logic models from probabilistic examples, and the PILP models learned from probabilistic examples lead to a significant decrease in error accompanied by improved insight from the learned results compared with the PILP models learned from non-probabilistic examples.

Reliability and safety engineering

CERN Document Server

Verma, Ajit Kumar; Karanki, Durga Rao

2016-01-01

Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz.,electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Cas...

Multiple sequential failure model: A probabilistic approach to quantifying human error dependency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta

1985-01-01

This paper rpesents a probabilistic approach to quantifying human error dependency when multiple tasks are performed. Dependent human failures are dominant contributors to risks from nuclear power plants. An overview of the Multiple Sequential Failure (MSF) model developed and its use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) depending on the available data are discussed. A small-scale psychological experiment was conducted on the nature of human dependency and the interpretation of the experimental data by the MSF model show remarkable accommodation of the dependent failure data. The model, which provides an unique method for quantification of dependent failures in human reliability analysis, can be used in conjunction with any of the general methods currently used for performing the human reliability aspect in PRAs

Probabilistic fracture finite elements

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Lua, Y. J.

1991-05-01

The Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM) is a promising method for estimating the fatigue life and inspection cycles for mechanical and structural components. The Probability Finite Element Method (PFEM), which is based on second moment analysis, has proved to be a promising, practical approach to handle problems with uncertainties. As the PFEM provides a powerful computational tool to determine first and second moment of random parameters, the second moment reliability method can be easily combined with PFEM to obtain measures of the reliability of the structural system. The method is also being applied to fatigue crack growth. Uncertainties in the material properties of advanced materials such as polycrystalline alloys, ceramics, and composites are commonly observed from experimental tests. This is mainly attributed to intrinsic microcracks, which are randomly distributed as a result of the applied load and the residual stress.

Probabilistic finite elements for fracture and fatigue analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Lawrence, M.; Besterfield, G. H.

1989-01-01

The fusion of the probabilistic finite element method (PFEM) and reliability analysis for probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) is presented. A comprehensive method for determining the probability of fatigue failure for curved crack growth was developed. The criterion for failure or performance function is stated as: the fatigue life of a component must exceed the service life of the component; otherwise failure will occur. An enriched element that has the near-crack-tip singular strain field embedded in the element is used to formulate the equilibrium equation and solve for the stress intensity factors at the crack-tip. Performance and accuracy of the method is demonstrated on a classical mode 1 fatigue problem.

Reliability calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petersen, K.E.

1986-03-01

Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

A Probabilistic Approach for Robustness Evaluation of Timber Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

of Structures and a probabilistic modelling of the timber material proposed in the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS). Due to the framework in the Danish Code the timber structure has to be evaluated with respect to the following criteria where at least one shall...... to criteria a) and b) the timber frame structure has one column with a reliability index a bit lower than an assumed target level. By removal three columns one by one no significant extensive failure of the entire structure or significant parts of it are obatined. Therefore the structure can be considered......A probabilistic based robustness analysis has been performed for a glulam frame structure supporting the roof over the main court in a Norwegian sports centre. The robustness analysis is based on the framework for robustness analysis introduced in the Danish Code of Practice for the Safety...

Reliability Analysis and Optimal Design of Monolithic Vertical Wall Breakwaters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, Hans F.; Christiani, E.

1994-01-01

Reliability analysis and reliability-based design of monolithic vertical wall breakwaters are considered. Probabilistic models of the most important failure modes, sliding failure, failure of the foundation and overturning failure are described . Relevant design variables are identified...

A study on the dependency evaluation for multiple human actions in human reliability analysis of probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, D. I.; Yang, J. E.; Jung, W. D.; Sung, T. Y.; Park, J. H.; Lee, Y. H.; Hwang, M. J.; Kim, K. Y.; Jin, Y. H.; Kim, S. C.

1997-02-01

This report describes the study results on the method of the dependency evaluation and the modeling, and the limited value of human error probability (HEP) for multiple human actions in accident sequences of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). THERP and Parry's method, which have been generally used in dependency evaluation of human reliability analysis (HRA), are introduced and their limitations are discussed. New dependency evaluation method in HRA is established to make up for the weak points of THERP and Parry's methods. The limited value of HEP is also established based on the review of several HRA related documents. This report describes the definition, the type, the evaluation method, and the evaluation example of dependency to help the reader's understanding. It is expected that this study results will give a guidance to HRA analysts in dependency evaluation of multiple human actions and enable PSA analysts to understand HRA in detail. (author). 23 refs., 3 tabs., 2 figs

Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation: An Efficient Statistical Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wan, Can; Lin, Jin; Song, Yonghua

2017-01-01

This letter proposes a novel efficient probabilistic forecasting approach to accurately quantify the variability and uncertainty of the power production from photovoltaic (PV) systems. Distinguished from most existing models, a linear programming based prediction interval construction model for P...... power generation is proposed based on extreme learning machine and quantile regression, featuring high reliability and computational efficiency. The proposed approach is validated through the numerical studies on PV data from Denmark.......This letter proposes a novel efficient probabilistic forecasting approach to accurately quantify the variability and uncertainty of the power production from photovoltaic (PV) systems. Distinguished from most existing models, a linear programming based prediction interval construction model for PV...

Probabilistic safety analysis and interpretation thereof

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steininger, U.; Sacher, H.

1999-01-01

Increasing use of the instrumentation of PSA is being made in Germany for quantitative technical safety assessment, for example with regard to incidents which must be reported and forwarding of information, especially in the case of modification of nuclear plants. The Commission for Nuclear Reactor Safety recommends regular execution of PSA on a cycle period of ten years. According to the PSA guidance instructions, probabilistic analyses serve for assessing the degree of safety of the entire plant, expressed as the expectation value for the frequency of endangering conditions. The authors describe the method, action sequence and evaluation of the probabilistic safety analyses. The limits of probabilistic safety analyses arise in the practical implementation. Normally the guidance instructions for PSA are confined to the safety systems, so that in practice they are at best suitable for operational optimisation only to a limited extent. The present restriction of the analyses has a similar effect on power output operation of the plant. This seriously degrades the utilitarian value of these analyses for the plant operators. In order to further develop PSA as a supervisory and operational optimisation instrument, both authors consider it to be appropriate to bring together the specific know-how of analysts, manufacturers, plant operators and experts. (orig.) [de

Safety and reliability. V. 1. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, C.G.

1997-01-01

Proceedings of a 1997 conference on industrial safety and reliability are reported. The first volume looks at risk management, probabilistic safety assessment and management styles in various industrial settings, including nuclear power plants. The second volume addresses safety and reliability in the offshore and transport industries, focusing on the role of staff training and appropriate maintenance routines to effectively reduce accidents and outages. (UK)

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system structural components

Science.gov (United States)

Cruse, T. A.

1987-01-01

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods for select space propulsion system structural components (PSAM)

Science.gov (United States)

Cruse, T. A.; Burnside, O. H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Polch, E. Z.; Dias, J. B.

1988-01-01

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

Basic design of parallel computational program for probabilistic structural analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaji, Yoshiyuki; Arai, Taketoshi; Gu, Wenwei; Nakamura, Hitoshi

1999-06-01

In our laboratory, for 'development of damage evaluation method of structural brittle materials by microscopic fracture mechanics and probabilistic theory' (nuclear computational science cross-over research) we examine computational method related to super parallel computation system which is coupled with material strength theory based on microscopic fracture mechanics for latent cracks and continuum structural model to develop new structural reliability evaluation methods for ceramic structures. This technical report is the review results regarding probabilistic structural mechanics theory, basic terms of formula and program methods of parallel computation which are related to principal terms in basic design of computational mechanics program. (author)

Basic design of parallel computational program for probabilistic structural analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaji, Yoshiyuki; Arai, Taketoshi [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Gu, Wenwei; Nakamura, Hitoshi

1999-06-01

In our laboratory, for `development of damage evaluation method of structural brittle materials by microscopic fracture mechanics and probabilistic theory` (nuclear computational science cross-over research) we examine computational method related to super parallel computation system which is coupled with material strength theory based on microscopic fracture mechanics for latent cracks and continuum structural model to develop new structural reliability evaluation methods for ceramic structures. This technical report is the review results regarding probabilistic structural mechanics theory, basic terms of formula and program methods of parallel computation which are related to principal terms in basic design of computational mechanics program. (author)

An overview of the evolution of human reliability analysis in the context of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bley, Dennis C.; Lois, Erasmia; Kolaczkowski, Alan M.; Forester, John Alan; Wreathall, John; Cooper, Susan E.

2009-01-01

Since the Reactor Safety Study in the early 1970's, human reliability analysis (HRA) has been evolving towards a better ability to account for the factors and conditions that can lead humans to take unsafe actions and thereby provide better estimates of the likelihood of human error for probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of recent reviews of operational events and advances in the behavioral sciences that have impacted the evolution of HRA methods and contributed to improvements. The paper discusses the importance of human errors in complex human-technical systems, examines why humans contribute to accidents and unsafe conditions, and discusses how lessons learned over the years have changed the perspective and approach for modeling human behavior in PRAs of complicated domains such as nuclear power plants. It is argued that it has become increasingly more important to understand and model the more cognitive aspects of human performance and to address the broader range of factors that have been shown to influence human performance in complex domains. The paper concludes by addressing the current ability of HRA to adequately predict human failure events and their likelihood

An overview of the evolution of human reliability analysis in the context of probabilistic risk assessment.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bley, Dennis C. (Buttonwood Consulting Inc., Oakton, VA); Lois, Erasmia (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC); Kolaczkowski, Alan M. (Science Applications International Corporation, Eugene, OR); Forester, John Alan; Wreathall, John (John Wreathall and Co., Dublin, OH); Cooper, Susan E. (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC)

2009-01-01

Since the Reactor Safety Study in the early 1970's, human reliability analysis (HRA) has been evolving towards a better ability to account for the factors and conditions that can lead humans to take unsafe actions and thereby provide better estimates of the likelihood of human error for probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of recent reviews of operational events and advances in the behavioral sciences that have impacted the evolution of HRA methods and contributed to improvements. The paper discusses the importance of human errors in complex human-technical systems, examines why humans contribute to accidents and unsafe conditions, and discusses how lessons learned over the years have changed the perspective and approach for modeling human behavior in PRAs of complicated domains such as nuclear power plants. It is argued that it has become increasingly more important to understand and model the more cognitive aspects of human performance and to address the broader range of factors that have been shown to influence human performance in complex domains. The paper concludes by addressing the current ability of HRA to adequately predict human failure events and their likelihood.

Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 3. System reliability and analysis techniques, Session A - reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lofgren, E.V.

1985-08-01

This course in System Reliability and Analysis Techniques focuses on the quantitative estimation of reliability at the systems level. Various methods are reviewed, but the structure provided by the fault tree method is used as the basis for system reliability estimates. The principles of fault tree analysis are briefly reviewed. Contributors to system unreliability and unavailability are reviewed, models are given for quantitative evaluation, and the requirements for both generic and plant-specific data are discussed. Also covered are issues of quantifying component faults that relate to the systems context in which the components are embedded. All reliability terms are carefully defined. 44 figs., 22 tabs

Fully probabilistic control for stochastic nonlinear control systems with input dependent noise.

Science.gov (United States)

Herzallah, Randa

2015-03-01

Robust controllers for nonlinear stochastic systems with functional uncertainties can be consistently designed using probabilistic control methods. In this paper a generalised probabilistic controller design for the minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the actual joint probability density function (pdf) of the closed loop control system, and an ideal joint pdf is presented emphasising how the uncertainty can be systematically incorporated in the absence of reliable systems models. To achieve this objective all probabilistic models of the system are estimated from process data using mixture density networks (MDNs) where all the parameters of the estimated pdfs are taken to be state and control input dependent. Based on this dependency of the density parameters on the input values, explicit formulations to the construction of optimal generalised probabilistic controllers are obtained through the techniques of dynamic programming and adaptive critic methods. Using the proposed generalised probabilistic controller, the conditional joint pdfs can be made to follow the ideal ones. A simulation example is used to demonstrate the implementation of the algorithm and encouraging results are obtained. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic safety assessment for research reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-12-01

Increasing interest in using Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) methods for research reactor safety is being observed in many countries throughout the world. This is mainly because of the great ability of this approach in achieving safe and reliable operation of research reactors. There is also a need to assist developing countries to apply Probabilistic Safety Assessment to existing nuclear facilities which are simpler and therefore less complicated to analyse than a large Nuclear Power Plant. It may be important, therefore, to develop PSA for research reactors. This might also help to better understand the safety characteristics of the reactor and to base any backfitting on a cost-benefit analysis which would ensure that only necessary changes are made. This document touches on all the key aspects of PSA but placed greater emphasis on so-called systems analysis aspects rather than the in-plant or ex-plant consequences

Dynamic Fault Diagnosis for Nuclear Installation Using Probabilistic Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Djoko Hari Nugroho; Deswandri; Ahmad Abtokhi; Darlis

2003-01-01

Probabilistic based fault diagnosis which represent the relationship between cause and consequence of the events for trouble shooting is developed in this research based on Bayesian Networks. Contribution of on-line data comes from sensors and system/component reliability in node cause is expected increasing the belief level of Bayesian Networks. (author)

Probabilistic methods in nuclear power plant component ageing analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simola, K.

1992-03-01

The nuclear power plant ageing research is aimed to ensure that the plant safety and reliability are maintained at a desired level through the designed, and possibly extended lifetime. In ageing studies, the reliability of components, systems and structures is evaluated taking into account the possible time- dependent decrease in reliability. The results of analyses can be used in the evaluation of the remaining lifetime of components and in the development of preventive maintenance, testing and replacement programmes. The report discusses the use of probabilistic models in the evaluations of the ageing of nuclear power plant components. The principles of nuclear power plant ageing studies are described and examples of ageing management programmes in foreign countries are given. The use of time-dependent probabilistic models to evaluate the ageing of various components and structures is described and the application of models is demonstrated with two case studies. In the case study of motor- operated closing valves the analysis are based on failure data obtained from a power plant. In the second example, the environmentally assisted crack growth is modelled with a computer code developed in United States, and the applicability of the model is evaluated on the basis of operating experience

Reliability and Failure in NASA Missions: Blunders, Normal Accidents, High Reliability, Bad Luck

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Harry W.

2015-01-01

NASA emphasizes crew safety and system reliability but several unfortunate failures have occurred. The Apollo 1 fire was mistakenly unanticipated. After that tragedy, the Apollo program gave much more attention to safety. The Challenger accident revealed that NASA had neglected safety and that management underestimated the high risk of shuttle. Probabilistic Risk Assessment was adopted to provide more accurate failure probabilities for shuttle and other missions. NASA's "faster, better, cheaper" initiative and government procurement reform led to deliberately dismantling traditional reliability engineering. The Columbia tragedy and Mars mission failures followed. Failures can be attributed to blunders, normal accidents, or bad luck. Achieving high reliability is difficult but possible.

Probabilistic Simulation of Combined Thermo-Mechanical Cyclic Fatigue in Composites

Science.gov (United States)

Chamis, Christos C.

2011-01-01

A methodology to compute probabilistically-combined thermo-mechanical fatigue life of polymer matrix laminated composites has been developed and is demonstrated. Matrix degradation effects caused by long-term environmental exposure and mechanical/thermal cyclic loads are accounted for in the simulation process. A unified time-temperature-stress-dependent multifactor-interaction relationship developed at NASA Glenn Research Center has been used to model the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. The fast probability-integration method is used to compute probabilistic distribution of response. Sensitivities of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables (e.g., constituent properties, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness, etc.) computed and their significance in the reliability-based design for maximum life is discussed. The effect of variation in the thermal cyclic loads on the fatigue reliability for a (0/+/-45/90)s graphite/epoxy laminate with a ply thickness of 0.127 mm, with respect to impending failure modes has been studied. The results show that, at low mechanical-cyclic loads and low thermal-cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life for 0.999 reliability is most sensitive to matrix compressive strength, matrix modulus, thermal expansion coefficient, and ply thickness. Whereas at high mechanical-cyclic loads and high thermal-cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life at 0.999 reliability is more sensitive to the shear strength of matrix, longitudinal fiber modulus, matrix modulus, and ply thickness.

Probabilistic real-time contingency ranking method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mijuskovic, N.A.; Stojnic, D.

2000-01-01

This paper describes a real-time contingency method based on a probabilistic index-expected energy not supplied. This way it is possible to take into account the stochastic nature of the electric power system equipment outages. This approach enables more comprehensive ranking of contingencies and it is possible to form reliability cost values that can form the basis for hourly spot price calculations. The electric power system of Serbia is used as an example for the method proposed. (author)

Probabilistic fracture mechanics applied for lbb case study: international benchmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radu, V.

2015-01-01

An application of probabilistic fracture mechanics to evaluate the structural integrity for a case study chosen from experimental Mock-ups of FP7 STYLE project is described. The reliability model for probabilistic structural integrity, focused on the assessment of TWC in the pipe weld under complex loading (bending moment and residual stress) has been setup. The basic model is the model of fracture for through-wall cracked pipe under elastic-plastic conditions. The corresponding structural reliability approach is developed with the probabilities of failure associated with maximum load for crack initiation, net-section collapse but also the evaluation the instability loads. The probabilities of failure for a through-wall crack in a pipe subject to pure bending are evaluated by using crude Monte Carlo simulations. The results from the international benchmark are presented for the mentioned case in the context of ageing and lifetime management of pressure boundary/pressure circuit component. (authors)

Uncertainties and reliability theories for reactor safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veneziano, D.

1975-01-01

What makes the safety problem of nuclear reactors particularly challenging is the demand for high levels of reliability and the limitation of statistical information. The latter is an unfortunate circumstance, which forces deductive theories of reliability to use models and parameter values with weak factual support. The uncertainty about probabilistic models and parameters which are inferred from limited statistical evidence can be quantified and incorporated rationally into inductive theories of reliability. In such theories, the starting point is the information actually available, as opposed to an estimated probabilistic model. But, while the necessity of introducing inductive uncertainty into reliability theories has been recognized by many authors, no satisfactory inductive theory is presently available. The paper presents: a classification of uncertainties and of reliability models for reactor safety; a general methodology to include these uncertainties into reliability analysis; a discussion about the relative advantages and the limitations of various reliability theories (specifically, of inductive and deductive, parametric and nonparametric, second-moment and full-distribution theories). For example, it is shown that second-moment theories, which were originally suggested to cope with the scarcity of data, and which have been proposed recently for the safety analysis of secondary containment vessels, are the least capable of incorporating statistical uncertainty. The focus is on reliability models for external threats (seismic accelerations and tornadoes). As an application example, the effect of statistical uncertainty on seismic risk is studied using parametric full-distribution models

Probabilistic escalation modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Korneliussen, G.; Eknes, M.L.; Haugen, K.; Selmer-Olsen, S. [Det Norske Veritas, Oslo (Norway)

1997-12-31

This paper describes how structural reliability methods may successfully be applied within quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as an alternative to traditional event tree analysis. The emphasis is on fire escalation in hydrocarbon production and processing facilities. This choice was made due to potential improvements over current QRA practice associated with both the probabilistic approach and more detailed modelling of the dynamics of escalating events. The physical phenomena important for the events of interest are explicitly modelled as functions of time. Uncertainties are represented through probability distributions. The uncertainty modelling enables the analysis to be simple when possible and detailed when necessary. The methodology features several advantages compared with traditional risk calculations based on event trees. (Author)

A Probabilistic Approach to Predict Thermal Fatigue Life for Ball Grid Array Solder Joints

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Helin; Wang, Kuisheng

2011-11-01

Numerous studies of the reliability of solder joints have been performed. Most life prediction models are limited to a deterministic approach. However, manufacturing induces uncertainty in the geometry parameters of solder joints, and the environmental temperature varies widely due to end-user diversity, creating uncertainties in the reliability of solder joints. In this study, a methodology for accounting for variation in the lifetime prediction for lead-free solder joints of ball grid array packages (PBGA) is demonstrated. The key aspects of the solder joint parameters and the cyclic temperature range related to reliability are involved. Probabilistic solutions of the inelastic strain range and thermal fatigue life based on the Engelmaier model are developed to determine the probability of solder joint failure. The results indicate that the standard deviation increases significantly when more random variations are involved. Using the probabilistic method, the influence of each variable on the thermal fatigue life is quantified. This information can be used to optimize product design and process validation acceptance criteria. The probabilistic approach creates the opportunity to identify the root causes of failed samples from product fatigue tests and field returns. The method can be applied to better understand how variation affects parameters of interest in an electronic package design with area array interconnections.

Probabilistic studies for safety at optimum cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitner, P.

1999-01-01

By definition, the risk of failure of very reliable components is difficult to evaluate. How can the best strategies for in service inspection and maintenance be defined to limit this risk to an acceptable level at optimum cost? It is not sufficient to design structures with margins, it is also essential to understand how they age. The probabilistic approach has made it possible to develop well proven concepts. (author)

Probabilistic validation of protein NMR chemical shift assignments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dashti, Hesam; Tonelli, Marco; Lee, Woonghee; Westler, William M.; Cornilescu, Gabriel; Ulrich, Eldon L.; Markley, John L.

2016-01-01

Data validation plays an important role in ensuring the reliability and reproducibility of studies. NMR investigations of the functional properties, dynamics, chemical kinetics, and structures of proteins depend critically on the correctness of chemical shift assignments. We present a novel probabilistic method named ARECA for validating chemical shift assignments that relies on the nuclear Overhauser effect data. ARECA has been evaluated through its application to 26 case studies and has been shown to be complementary to, and usually more reliable than, approaches based on chemical shift databases. ARECA is available online at http://areca.nmrfam.wisc.edu/ http://areca.nmrfam.wisc.edu/

Probabilistic validation of protein NMR chemical shift assignments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dashti, Hesam [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Graduate Program in Biophysics, Biochemistry Department (United States); Tonelli, Marco; Lee, Woonghee; Westler, William M.; Cornilescu, Gabriel [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Biochemistry Department, National Magnetic Resonance Facility at Madison (United States); Ulrich, Eldon L. [University of Wisconsin-Madison, BioMagResBank, Biochemistry Department (United States); Markley, John L., E-mail: markley@nmrfam.wisc.edu, E-mail: jmarkley@wisc.edu [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Biochemistry Department, National Magnetic Resonance Facility at Madison (United States)

2016-01-15

Data validation plays an important role in ensuring the reliability and reproducibility of studies. NMR investigations of the functional properties, dynamics, chemical kinetics, and structures of proteins depend critically on the correctness of chemical shift assignments. We present a novel probabilistic method named ARECA for validating chemical shift assignments that relies on the nuclear Overhauser effect data. ARECA has been evaluated through its application to 26 case studies and has been shown to be complementary to, and usually more reliable than, approaches based on chemical shift databases. ARECA is available online at http://areca.nmrfam.wisc.edu/ http://areca.nmrfam.wisc.edu/.

Method of extracting significant trouble information of nuclear power plants using probabilistic analysis technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimada, Yoshio; Miyazaki, Takamasa

2005-01-01

In order to analyze and evaluate large amounts of trouble information of overseas nuclear power plants, it is necessary to select information that is significant in terms of both safety and reliability. In this research, a method of efficiently and simply classifying degrees of importance of components in terms of safety and reliability while paying attention to root-cause components appearing in the information was developed. Regarding safety, the reactor core damage frequency (CDF), which is used in the probabilistic analysis of a reactor, was used. Regarding reliability, the automatic plant trip probability (APTP), which is used in the probabilistic analysis of automatic reactor trips, was used. These two aspects were reflected in the development of criteria for classifying degrees of importance of components. By applying these criteria, a simple method of extracting significant trouble information of overseas nuclear power plants was developed. (author)

Probabilistic Modeling of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rafsanjani, Hesam Mirzaei

Wind energy is one of several energy sources in the world and a rapidly growing industry in the energy sector. When placed in offshore or onshore locations, wind turbines are exposed to wave excitations, highly dynamic wind loads and/or the wakes from other wind turbines. Therefore, most components...... in a wind turbine experience highly dynamic and time-varying loads. These components may fail due to wear or fatigue, and this can lead to unplanned shutdown repairs that are very costly. The design by deterministic methods using safety factors is generally unable to account for the many uncertainties. Thus......, a reliability assessment should be based on probabilistic methods where stochastic modeling of failures is performed. This thesis focuses on probabilistic models and the stochastic modeling of the fatigue life of the wind turbine drivetrain. Hence, two approaches are considered for stochastic modeling...

Accelerated uncertainty propagation in two-level probabilistic studies under monotony

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Limbourg, Philipp; Rocquigny, Etienne de; Andrianov, Guennadi

2010-01-01

Double-level probabilistic uncertainty models that separate aleatory and epistemic components enjoy significant interest in risk assessment. But the expensive computational costs associated with calculations of rare failure probabilities are still a large obstacle in practice. Computing accurately a risk lower than 10 -3 with 95% epistemic confidence usually requires 10 7 -10 8 runs in a brute-force double Monte Carlo. For single-level probabilistic studies, FORM (First Order Reliability Analysis) is a classical recipe allowing fast approximation of failure probabilities while MRM (Monotonous Reliability Method) recently proved an attractive robust alternative under monotony. This paper extends these methods to double-level probabilistic models through two novel algorithms designed to compute a set of failure probabilities or an aleatory risk level with an epistemic confidence quantile. The first, L2-FORM (level-2 FORM), allows a rapid approximation of the failure probabilities through a combination of FORM with new ideas to use similarity between computations. L2-MRM (level-2 MRM), a quadrature approach, provides 100%-guaranteed error bounds on the results. Experiments on three flood prediction problems showed that both algorithms approximate a set of 500 failure probabilities of 10 -3 -10 -2 or derived 95% epistemic quantiles with a total of only 500-1000 function evaluations, outperforming importance sampling, iterative FORM and regression splines metamodels.

An overview-probabilistic safety analysis for research reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Jinlin; Peng Changhong

2015-01-01

For long-term application, Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) has proved to be a valuable tool for improving the safety and reliability of power reactors. In China, 'Nuclear safety and radioactive pollution prevention 'Twelfth Five Year Plan' and the 2020 vision' raises clearly that: to develop probabilistic safety analysis and aging evaluation for research reactors. Comparing with the power reactors, it reveals some specific features in research reactors: lower operating power, lower coolant temperature and pressure, etc. However, the core configurations may be changed very often and human actions play an important safety role in research reactors due to its specific experimental requirement. As a result, there is a necessary to conduct the PSA analysis of research reactors. This paper discusses the special characteristics related to the structure and operation and the methods to develop the PSA of research reactors, including initiating event analysis, event tree analysis, fault tree analysis, dependent failure analysis, human reliability analysis and quantification as well as the experimental and external event evaluation through the investigation of various research reactors and their PSAs home and abroad, to provide the current situation and features of research reactors PSAs. (author)

Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton

2013-03-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was to establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.

RELEVANT OBJECTIVES OF ASSURANCE OF RELIABILITY OF FACADE SYSTEMS SERVING THERMAL INSULATION AND FINISHING PURPOSES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yavorskiy Andrey Andreevich

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The authors consider up-to-date methods of implementation of requirements stipulated by Federal Law no. 261-FZ that encompasses reduction of heat losses through installation of progressive heat-insulation systems, cement plaster system (CPS, and ventilated facades (VF. Unresolved problems of their efficient application caused by the absence of the all-Russian regulatory documents capable of controlling the processes of their installation and maintenance, as well as the projection of their behaviour, are also considered in the article. The authors argue that professional skills of designers and construction workers responsible for the design and installation of façade systems influence the quality and reliability of design and construction works. Unavailability of unified solutions or regulations serves as the objective reason for the unavailability of the respective database; therefore, there is an urgent need to perform a set of researches to have the unified database compiled. The authors use the example of thermal insulation cement plaster systems designated for facades as results of researches into the quantitative analysis of safety systems. Collected and systematized data that cover defects that have proven to be reasons for failures, as well as potential methods of their prevention are also studied. Data on pilot studies of major factors of influence onto reliability of glutinous adhesion of CPS to the base of a wall are provided.

Reliability tasks from prediction to field use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guyot, Christian.

1975-01-01

This tutorial paper is part of a series intended to sensitive on reliability prolems. Reliability probabilistic concept, is an important parameter of availability. Reliability prediction is an estimation process for evaluating design progress. It is only by the application of a reliability program that reliability objectives can be attained through the different stages of work: conception, fabrication, field use. The user is mainly interested in operational reliability. Indication are given on the support and the treatment of data in the case of electronic equipment at C.E.A. Reliability engineering requires a special state of mind which must be formed and developed in a company in the same way as it may be done for example for safety [fr

A Probabilistic Design Methodology for a Turboshaft Engine Overall Performance Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Min Chen

2014-05-01

Full Text Available In reality, the cumulative effect of the many uncertainties in engine component performance may stack up to affect the engine overall performance. This paper aims to quantify the impact of uncertainty in engine component performance on the overall performance of a turboshaft engine based on Monte-Carlo probabilistic design method. A novel probabilistic model of turboshaft engine, consisting of a Monte-Carlo simulation generator, a traditional nonlinear turboshaft engine model, and a probability statistical model, was implemented to predict this impact. One of the fundamental results shown herein is that uncertainty in component performance has a significant impact on the engine overall performance prediction. This paper also shows that, taking into consideration the uncertainties in component performance, the turbine entry temperature and overall pressure ratio based on the probabilistic design method should increase by 0.76% and 8.33%, respectively, compared with the ones of deterministic design method. The comparison shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more credible and reliable way to assign the design space for a target engine overall performance.

Collection and classification of human reliability data for use in probabilistic safety assessments. Final report of a co-ordinated research programme 1995-1998

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-10-01

One of the most important lessons from abnormal events in NPPs is that they often result from incorrect human action. The awareness of the importance of human factors and human reliability has increased significantly over 10-15 years primarily owing to the fact that some major incidents (nuclear or non-nuclear) have had significant human error contributions. Each of these incidents have revealed different types of human errors, some of which were not generally recognized prior to the incident. The analysis of these events led to wide recognition of the fact that more information about human actions and errors is needed to improve the safety and operation of nuclear power plants. At the same time, the need or proper human reliability data was recognised in view of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). No PSA study can be regarded as complete and accurate without adequate incorporation of human reliability analysis (HRA). In order to support incorporation of human reliability data into PSA the IAEA established a coordinated research programme with the objective to develop a common data base structure for human errors that might have important contributions to risk in different types of reactors. This report is a product of four years of coordinated research and describes the data collection and classification schemes currently in use in Member States as well as an outlook into future, discussing what types of data might be needed to support the new improved HRA methods which are currently under development

Towards a multilevel cognitive probabilistic representation of space

Science.gov (United States)

Tapus, Adriana; Vasudevan, Shrihari; Siegwart, Roland

2005-03-01

This paper addresses the problem of perception and representation of space for a mobile agent. A probabilistic hierarchical framework is suggested as a solution to this problem. The method proposed is a combination of probabilistic belief with "Object Graph Models" (OGM). The world is viewed from a topological optic, in terms of objects and relationships between them. The hierarchical representation that we propose permits an efficient and reliable modeling of the information that the mobile agent would perceive from its environment. The integration of both navigational and interactional capabilities through efficient representation is also addressed. Experiments on a set of images taken from the real world that validate the approach are reported. This framework draws on the general understanding of human cognition and perception and contributes towards the overall efforts to build cognitive robot companions.

An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alessandrini, S.; Delle Monache, L.; Sperati, S.; Cervone, G.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A novel method for solar power probabilistic forecasting is proposed. • The forecast accuracy does not depend on the nominal power. • The impact of climatology on forecast accuracy is evaluated. - Abstract: The energy produced by photovoltaic farms has a variable nature depending on astronomical and meteorological factors. The former are the solar elevation and the solar azimuth, which are easily predictable without any uncertainty. The amount of liquid water met by the solar radiation within the troposphere is the main meteorological factor influencing the solar power production, as a fraction of short wave solar radiation is reflected by the water particles and cannot reach the earth surface. The total cloud cover is a meteorological variable often used to indicate the presence of liquid water in the troposphere and has a limited predictability, which is also reflected on the global horizontal irradiance and, as a consequence, on solar photovoltaic power prediction. This lack of predictability makes the solar energy integration into the grid challenging. A cost-effective utilization of solar energy over a grid strongly depends on the accuracy and reliability of the power forecasts available to the Transmission System Operators (TSOs). Furthermore, several countries have in place legislation requiring solar power producers to pay penalties proportional to the errors of day-ahead energy forecasts, which makes the accuracy of such predictions a determining factor for producers to reduce their economic losses. Probabilistic predictions can provide accurate deterministic forecasts along with a quantification of their uncertainty, as well as a reliable estimate of the probability to overcome a certain production threshold. In this paper we propose the application of an analog ensemble (AnEn) method to generate probabilistic solar power forecasts (SPF). The AnEn is based on an historical set of deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP) model

ZERO: Probabilistic Routing for Deploy and Forget Wireless Sensor Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose Carlos Pacho

2010-09-01

Full Text Available As Wireless Sensor Networks are being adopted by industry and agriculture for large-scale and unattended deployments, the need for reliable and energy-conservative protocols become critical. Physical and Link layer efforts for energy conservation are not mostly considered by routing protocols that put their efforts on maintaining reliability and throughput. Gradient-based routing protocols route data through most reliable links aiming to ensure 99% packet delivery. However, they suffer from the so-called ”hot spot” problem. Most reliable routes waste their energy fast, thus partitioning the network and reducing the area monitored. To cope with this ”hot spot” problem we propose ZERO a combined approach at Network and Link layers to increase network lifespan while conserving reliability levels by means of probabilistic load balancing techniques.

Short-term Probabilistic Load Forecasting with the Consideration of Human Body Amenity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ning Lu

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Load forecasting is the basis of power system planning and design. It is important for the economic operation and reliability assurance of power system. However, the results of load forecasting given by most existing methods are deterministic. This study aims at probabilistic load forecasting. First, the support vector machine regression is used to acquire the deterministic results of load forecasting with the consideration of human body amenity. Then the probabilistic load forecasting at a certain confidence level is given after the analysis of error distribution law corresponding to certain heat index interval. The final simulation shows that this probabilistic forecasting method is easy to implement and can provide more information than the deterministic forecasting results, and thus is helpful for decision-makers to make reasonable decisions.

Probabilistic modeling of fatigue crack growth in Ti-6Al-4V

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soboyejo, W.O.; Shen, W.; Soboyejo, A.B.O.

2001-01-01

This paper presents the results of a combined experimental and analytical study of the probabilistic nature of fatigue crack growth in Ti-6Al-4V. A simple experimental fracture mechanics framework is presented for the determination of statistical fatigue crack growth parameters from two fatigue tests. The experimental studies show that the variabilities in long fatigue crack growth rate data and the Paris coefficient are well described by the log-normal distributions. The variabilities in the Paris exponent are also shown to be well characterized by a normal distribution. The measured statistical distributions are incorporated into a probabilistic fracture mechanics framework for the estimation of material reliability. The implications of the results are discussed for the probabilistic analysis of fatigue crack growth in engineering components and structures. (orig.)

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

Science.gov (United States)

Oswald, Fred B.; Jett, Timothy R.; Predmore, Roamer E.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2008-01-01

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for the four actuators on one shuttle, each with a 2-bearing shaft assembly, established a reliability level of 96.9 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Estimation of the Reliability of Plastic Slabs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pirzada, G. B. : Ph.D.

In this thesis, work related to fundamental conditions has been extended to non-fundamental or the general case of probabilistic analysis. Finally, using the ss-unzipping technique a door has been opened to system reliability analysis of plastic slabs. An attempt has been made in this thesis...... to give a probabilistic treatment of plastic slabs which is parallel to the deterministic and systematic treatment of plastic slabs by Nielsen (3). The fundamental reason is that in Nielsen (3) the treatment is based on a deterministic modelling of the basic material properties for the reinforced...

A taxonomy for human reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beattie, J.D.; Iwasa-Madge, K.M.

1984-01-01

A human interaction taxonomy (classification scheme) was developed to facilitate human reliability analysis in a probabilistic safety evaluation of a nuclear power plant, being performed at Ontario Hydro. A human interaction occurs, by definition, when operators or maintainers manipulate, or respond to indication from, a plant component or system. The taxonomy aids the fault tree analyst by acting as a heuristic device. It helps define the range and type of human errors to be identified in the construction of fault trees, while keeping the identification by different analysts consistent. It decreases the workload associated with preliminary quantification of the large number of identified interactions by including a category called 'simple interactions'. Fault tree analysts quantify these according to a procedure developed by a team of human reliability specialists. The interactions which do not fit into this category are called 'complex' and are quantified by the human reliability team. The taxonomy is currently being used in fault tree construction in a probabilistic safety evaluation. As far as can be determined at this early stage, the potential benefits of consistency and completeness in identifying human interactions and streamlining the initial quantification are being realized

Probabilistic insurance

OpenAIRE

Wakker, P.P.; Thaler, R.H.; Tversky, A.

1997-01-01

textabstractProbabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in the premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. While these preferences are intuitively appealing they are difficult to reconcile with expected utility theory. Under highly plausible assumptions about the utility function, willingness to pay for probabilistic i...

A Probabilistic Damage Tolerance Concept for Welded Joints

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lassen, T.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2002-01-01

The first part of this paper presented the required statistics and stochastic models for reliability analysis of the fatigue fracture of welded plate joints. This present Part 2 suggests a probabilistic damage tolerance supplement to the design S–N curves for welded joints. The goal is to provide......) will have the same reliability level for the same FDF. This is true at the end of TSL and at earlier stages, i.e. fractions of TSL. The absolute value of TSL is immaterial for a given FDF. In the case of in-service inspection, the inspection interval is also given without dimensions as a fraction of TSL...

Proceeding of 35th domestic symposium on applications of structural reliability and risk assessment methods to nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-06-01

As the 35th domestic symposium of Atomic Energy Research Committee, the Japan Welding Engineering Society, the symposium was held titled as Applications of structural reliability/risk assessment methods to nuclear energy'. Six speakers gave lectures titled as 'Structural reliability and risk assessment methods', 'Risk-informed regulation of US nuclear energy and role of probabilistic risk assessment', 'Reliability and risk assessment methods in chemical plants', 'Practical structural design methods based on reliability in architectural and civil areas', 'Maintenance activities based on reliability in thermal power plants' and 'LWR maintenance strategies based on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics'. (T. Tanaka)

Proceedings of the workshop on reliability data collection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-01-01

The main purpose of the Workshop was to provide a forum for exchanging information and experience on Reliability Data Collection and analysis to support Living Probabilistic Safety Assessments (LPSA). The Workshop is divided into four sessions which titles are: Session 1: Reliability Data - Database Systems (3 papers), Session 2: Reliability Data Collection for PSA (5 papers), Session 3: NPP Data Collection (3 papers), Session 4: Reliability Data Assessment (Part 1: General - 2 papers; Part 2: CCF - 2 papers; Part 3: Reactor Protection Systems / External Event Data - 2 papers; Part 4: Human Errors - 2 papers)

Reliability-based performance simulation for optimized pavement maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chou, Jui-Sheng; Le, Thanh-Son

2011-01-01

Roadway pavement maintenance is essential for driver safety and highway infrastructure efficiency. However, regular preventive maintenance and rehabilitation (M and R) activities are extremely costly. Unfortunately, the funds available for the M and R of highway pavement are often given lower priority compared to other national development policies, therefore, available funds must be allocated wisely. Maintenance strategies are typically implemented by optimizing only the cost whilst the reliability of facility performance is neglected. This study proposes a novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) technique to evaluate the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy based on non-dominant solutions. Moreover, a probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. A numerical example of a highway pavement project is illustrated to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed MOPSO algorithms. The analytical results show that the proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans. - Highlights: →A novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization technique. → Evaluation of the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy. → A probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. → The proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans.

Reliability-based performance simulation for optimized pavement maintenance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chou, Jui-Sheng, E-mail: jschou@mail.ntust.edu.tw [Department of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (Taiwan Tech), 43 Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Le, Thanh-Son [Department of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (Taiwan Tech), 43 Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan (China)

2011-10-15

Roadway pavement maintenance is essential for driver safety and highway infrastructure efficiency. However, regular preventive maintenance and rehabilitation (M and R) activities are extremely costly. Unfortunately, the funds available for the M and R of highway pavement are often given lower priority compared to other national development policies, therefore, available funds must be allocated wisely. Maintenance strategies are typically implemented by optimizing only the cost whilst the reliability of facility performance is neglected. This study proposes a novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) technique to evaluate the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy based on non-dominant solutions. Moreover, a probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. A numerical example of a highway pavement project is illustrated to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed MOPSO algorithms. The analytical results show that the proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans. - Highlights: > A novel algorithm using multi-objective particle swarm optimization technique. > Evaluation of the cost-reliability tradeoff in a flexible maintenance strategy. > A probabilistic model for regression parameters is employed to assess reliability-based performance. > The proposed approach can help decision makers to optimize roadway maintenance plans.

Human Reliability Analysis in Support of Risk Assessment for Positive Train Control

Science.gov (United States)

2003-06-01

This report describes an approach to evaluating the reliability of human actions that are modeled in a probabilistic risk assessment : (PRA) of train control operations. This approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) has been applied in the case o...

Design of robust reliable control for T-S fuzzy Markovian jumping delayed neutral type neural networks with probabilistic actuator faults and leakage delays: An event-triggered communication scheme.

Science.gov (United States)

Syed Ali, M; Vadivel, R; Saravanakumar, R

2018-06-01

This study examines the problem of robust reliable control for Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy Markovian jumping delayed neural networks with probabilistic actuator faults and leakage terms. An event-triggered communication scheme. First, the randomly occurring actuator faults and their failures rates are governed by two sets of unrelated random variables satisfying certain probabilistic failures of every actuator, new type of distribution based event triggered fault model is proposed, which utilize the effect of transmission delay. Second, Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model is adopted for the neural networks and the randomness of actuators failures is modeled in a Markov jump model framework. Third, to guarantee the considered closed-loop system is exponential mean square stable with a prescribed reliable control performance, a Markov jump event-triggered scheme is designed in this paper, which is the main purpose of our study. Fourth, by constructing appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, employing Newton-Leibniz formulation and integral inequalities, several delay-dependent criteria for the solvability of the addressed problem are derived. The obtained stability criteria are stated in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be checked numerically using the effective LMI toolbox in MATLAB. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness and reduced conservatism of the proposed results over the existing ones, among them one example was supported by real-life application of the benchmark problem. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interaction of CREDO [Centralized Reliability Data Organization] with the EBR-II [Experimental Breeder Reactor II] PRA [probabilistic risk assessment] development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, M.S.; Ragland, W.A.

1989-01-01

The National Academy of Sciences review of US Department of Energy (DOE) class 1 reactors recommended that the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II), operated by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), develop a level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and make provisions for level 2 and level 3 PRAs based on the results of the level 1 PRA. The PRA analysis group at ANL will utilize the Centralized Reliability Data Organization (CREDO) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to support the PRA data needs. CREDO contains many years of empirical liquid-metal reactor component data from EBR-II. CREDO is a mutual data- and cost-sharing system sponsored by DOE and the Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuels Development Corporation of Japan. CREDO is a component based data system; data are collected on components that are liquid-metal specific, associated with a liquid-metal environment, contained in systems that interface with liquid-metal environments, or are safety related for use in reliability/availability/maintainability (RAM) analyses of advanced reactors. The links between the EBR-II PRA development effort and the CREDO data collection at EBR-II extend beyond the sharing of data. The PRA provides a measure of the relative contribution to risk of the various components. This information can be used to prioritize future CREDO data collection activities at EBR-II and other sites

An application of the ESD framework to the probabilistic risk assessment of dynamic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swaminathan, S.; Smidts, Carol

2000-01-01

Dynamic reliability is the probabilistic study of man-machine-software systems affected by an underlying physical process. The theory of probabilistic dynamics established that dynamic reliability methodologies are essentially semi-Markovian frameworks and can be expressed by an extension of the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation. The mathematical complexity associated with the assessment of dynamic systems' behaviour can be rather overwhelming for real life size systems. This is due to the fact that dynamic methodologies emphasize a component based representation rather than the sequence based representation used in the traditional Event Tree/Fault Tree framework or in the original Event Sequence Diagram (ESD) Framework. An extension of the ESD framework was proposed that facilitates capture of dynamic situations. The modeling framework is composed of events, gates, conditions, competitions and constraints which express many of the dynamic situations encountered in the evolution of accidents. The following paper illustrates an application of this extended ESD framework on a complex dynamic application. The problem at hand is an extension of a problem extensively studied in the validation of dynamic reliability algorithms, a simplified model of the fast reactor Europa. A discussion on how ESDs can help in guiding dynamic reliability simulations as well as aggregating and binning the numerous scenarios generated by dynamic reliability algorithms is provided.(author)

Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

2018-05-01

Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.

A probabilistic approach to delineating functional brain regions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kalbitzer, Jan; Svarer, Claus; Frokjaer, Vibe G

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a reliable observer-independent approach to delineating volumes of interest (VOIs) for functional brain regions that are not identifiable on structural MR images. The case is made for the raphe nuclei, a collection of nuclei situated in the brain stem known...... to be densely packed with serotonin transporters (5-hydroxytryptaminic [5-HTT] system). METHODS: A template set for the raphe nuclei, based on their high content of 5-HTT as visualized in parametric (11)C-labeled 3-amino-4-(2-dimethylaminomethyl-phenylsulfanyl)-benzonitrile PET images, was created for 10...... healthy subjects. The templates were subsequently included in the region sets used in a previously published automatic MRI-based approach to create an observer- and activity-independent probabilistic VOI map. The probabilistic map approach was tested in a different group of 10 subjects and compared...

Human reliability analysis in probabilistic safety assessment for nuclear power plants. A Safety Practice. A publication within the NUSS programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is playing an increasingly important role in the safe operation of nuclear power plants throughout the world. In order to establish a consistent framework for conducting PSA studies, for promoting technology transfer of the state of the art, and for encouraging uniformity in the way PSA is carried out, the IAEA is preparing a set of publications which gives guidance on various aspects of PSA. This document presents a practical approach for incorporating human reliability analysis (HRA) into PSA. It describes the steps needed and the documentation that should be provided both to support the PSA itself and to ensure effective communication of important information arising from the studies. It also describes a framework for analysing those human actions which could affect safety and for relating such human influences to specific parts of a PSA. This Safety Practice also addresses the limitations of PSA in taking account of human factors in relation to safety and risk. Refs, figs and tabs

Probabilistic model for sterilization of food

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chepurko, V.V.; Malinovskij, O.V.

1986-01-01

The probabilistic model for radiation sterilization is proposed based on the followng suppositions: (1) initial contamination of a volume unit of the sterilized product m is described by the distribution of the probabilities q(m), (2) inactivation of the population from m of microorganisms is approximated by Bernoulli test scheme, and (3) contamination of unit of the sterilized product is independent. The possibility of approximation q(m) by Poisson distribution is demonstrated. The diagrams are presented permitting to evaluate the dose which provides the defined reliability of sterilization of food for chicken-gnotobionts

A Novel TRM Calculation Method by Probabilistic Concept

Science.gov (United States)

Audomvongseree, Kulyos; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Verma, Suresh Chand; Nakachi, Yoshiki

In a new competitive environment, it becomes possible for the third party to access a transmission facility. From this structure, to efficiently manage the utilization of the transmission network, a new definition about Available Transfer Capability (ATC) has been proposed. According to the North American ElectricReliability Council (NERC)’s definition, ATC depends on several parameters, i. e. Total Transfer Capability (TTC), Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM), and Capacity Benefit Margin (CBM). This paper is focused on the calculation of TRM which is one of the security margin reserved for any uncertainty of system conditions. The TRM calculation by probabilistic method is proposed in this paper. Based on the modeling of load forecast error and error in transmission line limitation, various cases of transmission transfer capability and its related probabilistic nature can be calculated. By consideration of the proposed concept of risk analysis, the appropriate required amount of TRM can be obtained. The objective of this research is to provide realistic information on the actual ability of the network which may be an alternative choice for system operators to make an appropriate decision in the competitive market. The advantages of the proposed method are illustrated by application to the IEEJ-WEST10 model system.

Root cause analysis in support of reliability enhancement of engineering components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, Sachin; Mishra, Vivek; Joshi, N.S.; Varde, P.V.

2014-01-01

Reliability based methods have been widely used for the safety assessment of plant system, structures and components. These methods provide a quantitative estimation of system reliability but do not give insight into the failure mechanism. Understanding the failure mechanism is a must to avoid the recurrence of the events and enhancement of the system reliability. Root cause analysis provides a tool for gaining detailed insights into the causes of failure of component with particular attention to the identification of fault in component design, operation, surveillance, maintenance, training, procedures and policies which must be improved to prevent repetition of incidents. Root cause analysis also helps in developing Probabilistic Safety Analysis models. A probabilistic precursor study provides a complement to the root cause analysis approach in event analysis by focusing on how an event might have developed adversely. This paper discusses the root cause analysis methodologies and their application in the specific case studies for enhancement of system reliability. (author)

Foundations for a time reliability correlation system to quantify human reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dougherty, E.M. Jr.; Fragola, J.R.

1988-01-01

Time reliability correlations (TRCs) have been used in human reliability analysis (HRA) in conjunction with probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to quantify post-initiator human failure events. The first TRCs were judgmental but recent data taken from simulators have provided evidence for development of a system of TRCs. This system has the equational form: t = tau R X tau U , where the first factor is the lognormally distributed random variable of successful response time, derived from the simulator data, and the second factor is a unitary lognormal random variable to account for uncertainty in the model. The first random variable is further factored into a median response time and a factor to account for the dominant type of behavior assumed to be involved in the response and a second factor to account for other influences on the reliability of the response

Reliability of the Discounting Inventory: An extension into substance-use population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malesza Marta

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Recent research introduced the Discounting Inventory that allows the measurement of individual differences in the delay, probabilistic, effort, and social discounting rates. The goal of this investigation was to determine several aspects of the reliability of the Discounting Inventory using the responses of 385 participants (200 non-smokers and 185 current-smokers. Two types of reliability are of interest. Internal consistency and test-retest stability. A secondary aim was to extend such reliability measures beyond the non-clinical participant. The current study aimed to measure the reliability of the DI in a nicotine-dependent individuals and non-nicotine-dependent individuals. It is concluded that the internal consistency of the DI is excellent, and that the test-retest reliability results suggest that items intended to measure three types of discounting were likely testing trait, rather than state, factors, regardless of whether “non-smokers” were included in, or excluded from, the analyses (probabilistic discounting scale scores being the exception. With these cautions in mind, however, the psychometric properties of the DI appear to be very good.

Application of Reliability Analysis for Optimal Design of Monolithic Vertical Wall Breakwaters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Burcharth, H. F.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Christiani, E.

1995-01-01

Reliability analysis and reliability-based design of monolithic vertical wall breakwaters are considered. Probabilistic models of some of the most important failure modes are described. The failures are sliding and slip surface failure of a rubble mound and a clay foundation. Relevant design...

IAEA's experience in compiling a generic component reliability data base

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomic, B.; Lederman, L.

1991-01-01

Reliability data are essential in probabilistic safety assessment, with component reliability parameters being particularly important. Component failure data which is plant specific would be most appropriate but this is rather limited. However, similar components are used in different designs. Generic data, that is all data that is not plant specific to the plant being analyzed but which relates to components more generally, is important. The International Atomic Energy Agency has compiled the Generic Component Reliability Data Base from data available in the open literature. It is part of the IAEA computer code package for fault/event tree analysis. The Data Base contains 1010 different records including most of the components used in probabilistic safety analyses of nuclear power plants. The data base input was quality controlled and data sources noted. The data compilation procedure and problems associated with using generic data are explained. (UK)

A probabilistic maintenance model for diesel engines

Science.gov (United States)

Pathirana, Shan; Abeygunawardane, Saranga Kumudu

2018-02-01

In this paper, a probabilistic maintenance model is developed for inspection based preventive maintenance of diesel engines based on the practical model concepts discussed in the literature. Developed model is solved using real data obtained from inspection and maintenance histories of diesel engines and experts' views. Reliability indices and costs were calculated for the present maintenance policy of diesel engines. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to observe the effect of inspection based preventive maintenance on the life cycle cost of diesel engines.

Calculation of the reliability of large complex systems by the relevant path method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richter, G.

1975-03-01

In this paper, analytical methods are presented and tested with which the probabilistic reliability data of technical systems can be determined for given fault trees and block diagrams and known reliability data of the components. (orig./AK) [de

Developing Probabilistic Safety Performance Margins for Unknown and Underappreciated Risks

Science.gov (United States)

Benjamin, Allan; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Everett, Chris

2015-01-01

Probabilistic safety requirements currently formulated or proposed for space systems, nuclear reactor systems, nuclear weapon systems, and other types of systems that have a low-probability potential for high-consequence accidents depend on showing that the probability of such accidents is below a specified safety threshold or goal. Verification of compliance depends heavily upon synthetic modeling techniques such as PRA. To determine whether or not a system meets its probabilistic requirements, it is necessary to consider whether there are significant risks that are not fully considered in the PRA either because they are not known at the time or because their importance is not fully understood. The ultimate objective is to establish a reasonable margin to account for the difference between known risks and actual risks in attempting to validate compliance with a probabilistic safety threshold or goal. In this paper, we examine data accumulated over the past 60 years from the space program, from nuclear reactor experience, from aircraft systems, and from human reliability experience to formulate guidelines for estimating probabilistic margins to account for risks that are initially unknown or underappreciated. The formulation includes a review of the safety literature to identify the principal causes of such risks.

Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting Models by Aggregation of Competitive Predictors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudio Monteiro

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This article presents original probabilistic price forecasting meta-models (PPFMCP models, by aggregation of competitive predictors, for day-ahead hourly probabilistic price forecasting. The best twenty predictors of the EEM2016 EPF competition are used to create ensembles of hourly spot price forecasts. For each hour, the parameter values of the probability density function (PDF of a Beta distribution for the output variable (hourly price can be directly obtained from the expected and variance values associated to the ensemble for such hour, using three aggregation strategies of predictor forecasts corresponding to three PPFMCP models. A Reliability Indicator (RI and a Loss function Indicator (LI are also introduced to give a measure of uncertainty of probabilistic price forecasts. The three PPFMCP models were satisfactorily applied to the real-world case study of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL. Results from PPFMCP models showed that PPFMCP model 2, which uses aggregation by weight values according to daily ranks of predictors, was the best probabilistic meta-model from a point of view of mean absolute errors, as well as of RI and LI. PPFMCP model 1, which uses the averaging of predictor forecasts, was the second best meta-model. PPFMCP models allow evaluations of risk decisions based on the price to be made.

Efficient probabilistic inference in generic neural networks trained with non-probabilistic feedback.

Science.gov (United States)

Orhan, A Emin; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-07-26

Animals perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in a wide range of psychophysical tasks. Probabilistic inference requires trial-to-trial representation of the uncertainties associated with task variables and subsequent use of this representation. Previous work has implemented such computations using neural networks with hand-crafted and task-dependent operations. We show that generic neural networks trained with a simple error-based learning rule perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in nine common psychophysical tasks. In a probabilistic categorization task, error-based learning in a generic network simultaneously explains a monkey's learning curve and the evolution of qualitative aspects of its choice behavior. In all tasks, the number of neurons required for a given level of performance grows sublinearly with the input population size, a substantial improvement on previous implementations of probabilistic inference. The trained networks develop a novel sparsity-based probabilistic population code. Our results suggest that probabilistic inference emerges naturally in generic neural networks trained with error-based learning rules.Behavioural tasks often require probability distributions to be inferred about task specific variables. Here, the authors demonstrate that generic neural networks can be trained using a simple error-based learning rule to perform such probabilistic computations efficiently without any need for task specific operations.

Reliability data collection and use in risk and availability assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colombari, V.

1989-01-01

For EuReDatA it is a prevailing objective to initiate and support contact between experts, companies and institutions active in reliability engineering and research. Main topics of this 6th EuReDatA Conference are: Reliability data banks; incidents data banks; common cause data; source and propagation of uncertainties; computer aided risk analysis; reliability and incidents data acquisition and processing; human reliability; probabilistic safety and availability assessment; feedback of reliability into system design; data fusion; reliability modeling and techniques; structural and mechanical reliability; consequence modeling; software and electronic reliability; reliability tests. Some conference papers are separately indexed in the database. (HP)

Probabilistic Structural Analysis of SSME Turbopump Blades: Probabilistic Geometry Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Nagpal, V. K.

1985-01-01

A probabilistic study was initiated to evaluate the precisions of the geometric and material properties tolerances on the structural response of turbopump blades. To complete this study, a number of important probabilistic variables were identified which are conceived to affect the structural response of the blade. In addition, a methodology was developed to statistically quantify the influence of these probabilistic variables in an optimized way. The identified variables include random geometric and material properties perturbations, different loadings and a probabilistic combination of these loadings. Influences of these probabilistic variables are planned to be quantified by evaluating the blade structural response. Studies of the geometric perturbations were conducted for a flat plate geometry as well as for a space shuttle main engine blade geometry using a special purpose code which uses the finite element approach. Analyses indicate that the variances of the perturbations about given mean values have significant influence on the response.

Structural hybrid reliability index and its convergent solving method based on random–fuzzy–interval reliability model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hai An

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Aiming to resolve the problems of a variety of uncertainty variables that coexist in the engineering structure reliability analysis, a new hybrid reliability index to evaluate structural hybrid reliability, based on the random–fuzzy–interval model, is proposed in this article. The convergent solving method is also presented. First, the truncated probability reliability model, the fuzzy random reliability model, and the non-probabilistic interval reliability model are introduced. Then, the new hybrid reliability index definition is presented based on the random–fuzzy–interval model. Furthermore, the calculation flowchart of the hybrid reliability index is presented and it is solved using the modified limit-step length iterative algorithm, which ensures convergence. And the validity of convergent algorithm for the hybrid reliability model is verified through the calculation examples in literature. In the end, a numerical example is demonstrated to show that the hybrid reliability index is applicable for the wear reliability assessment of mechanisms, where truncated random variables, fuzzy random variables, and interval variables coexist. The demonstration also shows the good convergence of the iterative algorithm proposed in this article.

Probabilistic analysis of deformed mode of engineering constructions’ soil-cement grounds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vynnykov Yuriy

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The results of the analysis of probabilistic methods that are used to assess the deformed state of the foundations of engineering structures are presented. A finite element analysis of the stress-strain state of the “man made soil ground – foundation – structure” system was carried out. A method for probabilistic calculation using the finite element method is proposed. On a real example, the level of reliability of a design decision based on a deterministic calculation is estimated by probabilistic calculation. On the basis of the statistic data obtained by imitational modeling, the probability of failure and no-failure operation of the structure regarding the absolute value of settlement and regarding the value of tilt against the reinforcement ratio of soft soil grounds settlements was determined. The probability of failure regarding the value of tilt against the reinforcement ratio was taken (15 to 25%, which is 0.03 – 0.05.

Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

Method for assessing reliability of a network considering probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepin, M.

2005-01-01

A method for assessment of reliability of the network is developed, which uses the features of the fault tree analysis. The method is developed in a way that the increase of the network under consideration does not require significant increase of the model. The method is applied to small examples of network consisting of a small number of nodes and a small number of their connections. The results give the network reliability. They identify equipment, which is to be carefully maintained in order that the network reliability is not reduced, and equipment, which is a candidate for redundancy, as this would improve network reliability significantly. (author)

An advanced probabilistic structural analysis method for implicit performance functions

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, H. R.; Cruse, T. A.

1989-01-01

In probabilistic structural analysis, the performance or response functions usually are implicitly defined and must be solved by numerical analysis methods such as finite element methods. In such cases, the most commonly used probabilistic analysis tool is the mean-based, second-moment method which provides only the first two statistical moments. This paper presents a generalized advanced mean value (AMV) method which is capable of establishing the distributions to provide additional information for reliability design. The method requires slightly more computations than the second-moment method but is highly efficient relative to the other alternative methods. In particular, the examples show that the AMV method can be used to solve problems involving non-monotonic functions that result in truncated distributions.

Use of Probabilistic Engineering Methods in the Detailed Design and Development Phases of the NASA Ares Launch Vehicle

Science.gov (United States)

Fayssal, Safie; Weldon, Danny

2008-01-01

The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is in the midst of a space exploration program called Constellation to send crew and cargo to the international Space Station, to the moon, and beyond. As part of the Constellation program, a new launch vehicle, Ares I, is being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Designing a launch vehicle with high reliability and increased safety requires a significant effort in understanding design variability and design uncertainty at the various levels of the design (system, element, subsystem, component, etc.) and throughout the various design phases (conceptual, preliminary design, etc.). In a previous paper [1] we discussed a probabilistic functional failure analysis approach intended mainly to support system requirements definition, system design, and element design during the early design phases. This paper provides an overview of the application of probabilistic engineering methods to support the detailed subsystem/component design and development as part of the "Design for Reliability and Safety" approach for the new Ares I Launch Vehicle. Specifically, the paper discusses probabilistic engineering design analysis cases that had major impact on the design and manufacturing of the Space Shuttle hardware. The cases represent important lessons learned from the Space Shuttle Program and clearly demonstrate the significance of probabilistic engineering analysis in better understanding design deficiencies and identifying potential design improvement for Ares I. The paper also discusses the probabilistic functional failure analysis approach applied during the early design phases of Ares I and the forward plans for probabilistic design analysis in the detailed design and development phases.

Fast probabilistic file fingerprinting for big data.

Science.gov (United States)

Tretyakov, Konstantin; Laur, Sven; Smant, Geert; Vilo, Jaak; Prins, Pjotr

2013-01-01

Biological data acquisition is raising new challenges, both in data analysis and handling. Not only is it proving hard to analyze the data at the rate it is generated today, but simply reading and transferring data files can be prohibitively slow due to their size. This primarily concerns logistics within and between data centers, but is also important for workstation users in the analysis phase. Common usage patterns, such as comparing and transferring files, are proving computationally expensive and are tying down shared resources. We present an efficient method for calculating file uniqueness for large scientific data files, that takes less computational effort than existing techniques. This method, called Probabilistic Fast File Fingerprinting (PFFF), exploits the variation present in biological data and computes file fingerprints by sampling randomly from the file instead of reading it in full. Consequently, it has a flat performance characteristic, correlated with data variation rather than file size. We demonstrate that probabilistic fingerprinting can be as reliable as existing hashing techniques, with provably negligible risk of collisions. We measure the performance of the algorithm on a number of data storage and access technologies, identifying its strengths as well as limitations. Probabilistic fingerprinting may significantly reduce the use of computational resources when comparing very large files. Utilisation of probabilistic fingerprinting techniques can increase the speed of common file-related workflows, both in the data center and for workbench analysis. The implementation of the algorithm is available as an open-source tool named pfff, as a command-line tool as well as a C library. The tool can be downloaded from http://biit.cs.ut.ee/pfff.

Guidance for the definition and application of probabilistic safety criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.-E.; Knochenhauer, M.

2011-05-01

The project 'The Validity of Safety Goals' has been financed jointly by NKS (Nordic Nuclear Safety Research), SSM (Swedish Radiation Safety Authority) and the Swedish and Finnish nuclear utilities. The national financing went through NPSAG, the Nordic PSA Group (Swedish contributions) and SAFIR2010, the Finnish research programme on NPP safety (Finnish contributions). The project has been performed in four phases during 2006-2010. This guidance document aims at describing, on the basis of the work performed throughout the project, issues to consider when defining, applying and interpreting probabilistic safety criteria. Thus, the basic aim of the document is to serve as a checklist and toolbox for the definition and application of probabilistic safety criteria. The document describes the terminology and concepts involved, the levels of criteria and relations between these, how to define a probabilistic safety criterion, how to apply a probabilistic safety criterion, on what to apply the probabilistic safety criterion, and how to interpret the result of the application. The document specifically deals with what makes up a probabilistic safety criterion, i.e., the risk metric, the frequency criterion, the PSA used for assessing compliance and the application procedure for the criterion. It also discusses the concept of subsidiary criteria, i.e., different levels of safety goals. The results from the project can be used as a platform for discussions at the utilities on how to define and use quantitative safety goals. The results can also be used by safety authorities as a reference for risk-informed regulation. The outcome can have an impact on the requirements on PSA, e.g., regarding quality, scope, level of detail, and documentation. Finally, the results can be expected to support on-going activities concerning risk-informed applications. (Author)

Guidance for the definition and application of probabilistic safety criteria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holmberg, J.-E. (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland)); Knochenhauer, M. (Scandpower AB (Sweden))

2011-05-15

The project 'The Validity of Safety Goals' has been financed jointly by NKS (Nordic Nuclear Safety Research), SSM (Swedish Radiation Safety Authority) and the Swedish and Finnish nuclear utilities. The national financing went through NPSAG, the Nordic PSA Group (Swedish contributions) and SAFIR2010, the Finnish research programme on NPP safety (Finnish contributions). The project has been performed in four phases during 2006-2010. This guidance document aims at describing, on the basis of the work performed throughout the project, issues to consider when defining, applying and interpreting probabilistic safety criteria. Thus, the basic aim of the document is to serve as a checklist and toolbox for the definition and application of probabilistic safety criteria. The document describes the terminology and concepts involved, the levels of criteria and relations between these, how to define a probabilistic safety criterion, how to apply a probabilistic safety criterion, on what to apply the probabilistic safety criterion, and how to interpret the result of the application. The document specifically deals with what makes up a probabilistic safety criterion, i.e., the risk metric, the frequency criterion, the PSA used for assessing compliance and the application procedure for the criterion. It also discusses the concept of subsidiary criteria, i.e., different levels of safety goals. The results from the project can be used as a platform for discussions at the utilities on how to define and use quantitative safety goals. The results can also be used by safety authorities as a reference for risk-informed regulation. The outcome can have an impact on the requirements on PSA, e.g., regarding quality, scope, level of detail, and documentation. Finally, the results can be expected to support on-going activities concerning risk-informed applications. (Author)

On Probabilistic Alpha-Fuzzy Fixed Points and Related Convergence Results in Probabilistic Metric and Menger Spaces under Some Pompeiu-Hausdorff-Like Probabilistic Contractive Conditions

OpenAIRE

De la Sen, M.

2015-01-01

In the framework of complete probabilistic metric spaces and, in particular, in probabilistic Menger spaces, this paper investigates some relevant properties of convergence of sequences to probabilistic α-fuzzy fixed points under some types of probabilistic contractive conditions.

Application of deterministic and probabilistic methods in replacement of nuclear systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vianna Filho, Alfredo Marques

2007-01-01

The economic equipment replacement problem is one of the oldest questions in Production Engineering. On the one hand, new equipment are more attractive given their best performance, better reliability, lower maintenance cost, etc. New equipment, however, require a higher initial investment and thus a higher opportunity cost, and impose special training of the labor force. On the other hand, old equipment represent the other way around, with lower performance, lower reliability and specially higher maintenance costs but in contrast having lower financial, insurance, and opportunity costs. The weighting of all these costs can be made with the various methods presented. The aim of this paper is to discuss deterministic and probabilistic methods applied to the study of equipment replacement. Two types of distinct problems will be examined, substitution imposed by the wearing and substitution imposed by the failures. In order to solve the problem of nuclear system substitution imposed by wearing, deterministic methods are discussed. In order to solve the problem of nuclear system substitution imposed by failures, probabilistic methods are discussed. (author)

A probabilistic EAC management of Ni-base Alloy in PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Tae Hyun; Hwang, Il Soon

2009-01-01

Material aging is a principle cause for the aging of engineering systems that can lead to reduction in reliability and continued safety and increase in the cost of operation and maintenance. As the nuclear power plants get older, aging becomes an issue, because aging degradation can affect the structural integrity of systems and components in the same manner. To ensure the safe operation of nuclear power plants, it is essential to assess the effects of age-related degradation of plant structures, systems, and components. In this study, we propose a framework for probabilistic assessment of primary pressure-boundary components, with particular attention to Environmentally Assisted Cracking (EAC) of pipings and nozzles on Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). The framework on EAC management is targeted for the degradation prediction using mechanism and probabilistic treatment and probabilistic assessment of defect detection and sizing. Also, the EAC-induced failure process has examined the effect of uncertainties in key parameters in models for EAC growth model, final fracture and inspection, based on a sensitivity study and updating using Bayesian inference approach. (author)

Uncertainty estimation in nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guarro, S.B.; Cummings, G.E.

1989-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) was introduced in the nuclear industry and the nuclear regulatory process in 1975 with the publication of the Reactor Safety Study by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Almost fifteen years later, the state-of-the-art in this field has been expanded and sharpened in many areas, and about thirty-five plant-specific PRAs (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) have been performed by the nuclear utility companies or by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory commission. Among the areas where the most evident progress has been made in PRA and PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment, as these studies are more commonly referred to in the international community outside the U.S.) is the development of a consistent framework for the identification of sources of uncertainty and the estimation of their magnitude as it impacts various risk measures. Techniques to propagate uncertainty in reliability data through the risk models and display its effect on the top level risk estimates were developed in the early PRAs. The Seismic Safety Margin Research Program (SSMRP) study was the first major risk study to develop an approach to deal explicitly with uncertainty in risk estimates introduced not only by uncertainty in component reliability data, but by the incomplete state of knowledge of the assessor(s) with regard to basic phenomena that may trigger and drive a severe accident. More recently NUREG-1150, another major study of reactor risk sponsored by the NRC, has expanded risk uncertainty estimation and analysis into the realm of model uncertainty related to the relatively poorly known post-core-melt phenomena which determine the behavior of the molten core and of the rector containment structures

Probabilistic Insurance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wakker, P.P.; Thaler, R.H.; Tversky, A.

1997-01-01

Probabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. These observations cannot be

Probabilistic Insurance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.P. Wakker (Peter); R.H. Thaler (Richard); A. Tversky (Amos)

1997-01-01

textabstractProbabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in the premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. While these

Multilevel probabilistic approach to evaluate manufacturing defect in composite aircraft structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caracciolo, Paola

2014-01-01

In this work it is developed a reliable approach and its feasibility to the design and analysis of a composite structures. The metric is compared the robustness and reliability designs versus the traditional design, to demonstrate the gain that can be achieved with a probabilistic approach. The use of the stochastic approach of the uncertain parameteters in combination with the multi-scale levels analysis is the main objective of this paper. The work is dedicated to analyze the uncertainties in the design, tests, manufacturing process, and key gates such as materials characteristic

Multilevel probabilistic approach to evaluate manufacturing defect in composite aircraft structures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caracciolo, Paola, E-mail: paola.caracciolo@airbus.com [AIRBUS INDUSTRIES Germany, Department of Airframe Architecture and Integration-Research and Technology-Kreetslag, 10, D-21129, Hamburg (Germany)

2014-05-15

In this work it is developed a reliable approach and its feasibility to the design and analysis of a composite structures. The metric is compared the robustness and reliability designs versus the traditional design, to demonstrate the gain that can be achieved with a probabilistic approach. The use of the stochastic approach of the uncertain parameteters in combination with the multi-scale levels analysis is the main objective of this paper. The work is dedicated to analyze the uncertainties in the design, tests, manufacturing process, and key gates such as materials characteristic.

Power system reliability analysis using fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volkanovski, A.; Cepin, M.; Mavko, B.

2006-01-01

The power system reliability analysis method is developed from the aspect of reliable delivery of electrical energy to customers. The method is developed based on the fault tree analysis, which is widely applied in the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The method is adapted for the power system reliability analysis. The method is developed in a way that only the basic reliability parameters of the analysed power system are necessary as an input for the calculation of reliability indices of the system. The modeling and analysis was performed on an example power system consisting of eight substations. The results include the level of reliability of current power system configuration, the combinations of component failures resulting in a failed power delivery to loads, and the importance factors for components and subsystems. (author)

Human reliability data, human error and accident models--illustration through the Three Mile Island accident analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le Bot, Pierre

2004-01-01

Our first objective is to provide a panorama of Human Reliability data used in EDF's Safety Probabilistic Studies, and then, since these concepts are at the heart of Human Reliability and its methods, to go over the notion of human error and the understanding of accidents. We are not sure today that it is actually possible to provide in this field a foolproof and productive theoretical framework. Consequently, the aim of this article is to suggest potential paths of action and to provide information on EDF's progress along those paths which enables us to produce the most potentially useful Human Reliability analyses while taking into account current knowledge in Human Sciences. The second part of this article illustrates our point of view as EDF researchers through the analysis of the most famous civil nuclear accident, the Three Mile Island unit accident in 1979. Analysis of this accident allowed us to validate our positions regarding the need to move, in the case of an accident, from the concept of human error to that of systemic failure in the operation of systems such as a nuclear power plant. These concepts rely heavily on the notion of distributed cognition and we will explain how we applied it. These concepts were implemented in the MERMOS Human Reliability Probabilistic Assessment methods used in the latest EDF Probabilistic Human Reliability Assessment. Besides the fact that it is not very productive to focus exclusively on individual psychological error, the design of the MERMOS method and its implementation have confirmed two things: the significance of qualitative data collection for Human Reliability, and the central role held by Human Reliability experts in building knowledge about emergency operation, which in effect consists of Human Reliability data collection. The latest conclusion derived from the implementation of MERMOS is that, considering the difficulty in building 'generic' Human Reliability data in the field we are involved in, the best

Reliability analysis of common hazardous waste treatment processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waters, R.D.

1993-05-01

Five hazardous waste treatment processes are analyzed probabilistically using Monte Carlo simulation to elucidate the relationships between process safety factors and reliability levels. The treatment processes evaluated are packed tower aeration, reverse osmosis, activated sludge, upflow anaerobic sludge blanket, and activated carbon adsorption

Reliability analysis of common hazardous waste treatment processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waters, Robert D. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

1993-05-01

Five hazardous waste treatment processes are analyzed probabilistically using Monte Carlo simulation to elucidate the relationships between process safety factors and reliability levels. The treatment processes evaluated are packed tower aeration, reverse osmosis, activated sludge, upflow anaerobic sludge blanket, and activated carbon adsorption.

Probabilistic aspects of risk analyses for hazardous facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morici, A.; Valeri, A.; Zaffiro, C.

1989-01-01

The work described in the paper discusses the aspects of the risk analysis concerned with the use of the probabilistic methodology, in order to see how this approach may affect the risk management of industrial hazardous facilities. To this purpose reference is done to the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants. The paper points out that even though the public aversion towards nuclear risks is still far from being removed, the probabilistic approach may provide a sound support to the decision making and authorization process for any industrial activity implying risk for the environment and the public health. It is opinion of the authors that the probabilistic techniques have been developed to a great level of sophistication in the nuclear industry and provided much more experience in this field than in others. For some particular areas of the nuclear applications, such as the plant reliability and the plant response to the accidents, these techniques have reached a sufficient level of maturity and so some results have been usefully taken as a measure of the safety level of the plant itself. The use of some limited safety goals is regarded as a relevant item of the nuclear licensing process. The paper claims that it is time now that these methods would be applied with equal success to other hazardous facilities, and makes some comparative consideration on the differences of these plants with nuclear power plants in order to understand the effect of these differences on the PRA results and on the use one intends to make with them. (author)

A Time-Varied Probabilistic ON/OFF Switching Algorithm for Cellular Networks

KAUST Repository

Rached, Nadhir B.; Ghazzai, Hakim; Kadri, Abdullah; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2018-01-01

In this letter, we develop a time-varied probabilistic on/off switching planning method for cellular networks to reduce their energy consumption. It consists in a risk-aware optimization approach that takes into consideration the randomness of the user profile associated with each base station (BS). The proposed approach jointly determines (i) the instants of time at which the current active BS configuration must be updated due to an increase or decrease of the network traffic load, and (ii) the set of minimum BSs to be activated to serve the networks’ subscribers. Probabilistic metrics modeling the traffic profile variation are developed to trigger this dynamic on/off switching operation. Selected simulation results are then performed to validate the proposed algorithm for different system parameters.

A Time-Varied Probabilistic ON/OFF Switching Algorithm for Cellular Networks

KAUST Repository

Rached, Nadhir B.

2018-01-11

In this letter, we develop a time-varied probabilistic on/off switching planning method for cellular networks to reduce their energy consumption. It consists in a risk-aware optimization approach that takes into consideration the randomness of the user profile associated with each base station (BS). The proposed approach jointly determines (i) the instants of time at which the current active BS configuration must be updated due to an increase or decrease of the network traffic load, and (ii) the set of minimum BSs to be activated to serve the networks’ subscribers. Probabilistic metrics modeling the traffic profile variation are developed to trigger this dynamic on/off switching operation. Selected simulation results are then performed to validate the proposed algorithm for different system parameters.

Integration of Advanced Probabilistic Analysis Techniques with Multi-Physics Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cetiner, Mustafa Sacit; none,; Flanagan, George F. [ORNL; Poore III, Willis P. [ORNL; Muhlheim, Michael David [ORNL

2014-07-30

An integrated simulation platform that couples probabilistic analysis-based tools with model-based simulation tools can provide valuable insights for reactive and proactive responses to plant operating conditions. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the benefits of a partial implementation of the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Framework Specification through the coupling of advanced PRA capabilities and accurate multi-physics plant models. Coupling a probabilistic model with a multi-physics model will aid in design, operations, and safety by providing a more accurate understanding of plant behavior. This represents the first attempt at actually integrating these two types of analyses for a control system used for operations, on a faster than real-time basis. This report documents the development of the basic communication capability to exchange data with the probabilistic model using Reliability Workbench (RWB) and the multi-physics model using Dymola. The communication pathways from injecting a fault (i.e., failing a component) to the probabilistic and multi-physics models were successfully completed. This first version was tested with prototypic models represented in both RWB and Modelica. First, a simple event tree/fault tree (ET/FT) model was created to develop the software code to implement the communication capabilities between the dynamic-link library (dll) and RWB. A program, written in C#, successfully communicates faults to the probabilistic model through the dll. A systems model of the Advanced Liquid-Metal Reactor–Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module (ALMR-PRISM) design developed under another DOE project was upgraded using Dymola to include proper interfaces to allow data exchange with the control application (ConApp). A program, written in C+, successfully communicates faults to the multi-physics model. The results of the example simulation were successfully plotted.

Development of Probabilistic Flood Inundation Mapping For Flooding Induced by Dam Failure

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, C.; Yeh, J. J. J.

2017-12-01

A primary function of flood inundation mapping is to forecast flood hazards and assess potential losses. However, uncertainties limit the reliability of inundation hazard assessments. Major sources of uncertainty should be taken into consideration by an optimal flood management strategy. This study focuses on the 20km reach downstream of the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. A dam failure induced flood herein provides the upstream boundary conditions of flood routing. The two major sources of uncertainty that are considered in the hydraulic model and the flood inundation mapping herein are uncertainties in the dam break model and uncertainty of the roughness coefficient. The perturbance moment method is applied to a dam break model and the hydro system model to develop probabilistic flood inundation mapping. Various numbers of uncertain variables can be considered in these models and the variability of outputs can be quantified. The probabilistic flood inundation mapping for dam break induced floods can be developed with consideration of the variability of output using a commonly used HEC-RAS model. Different probabilistic flood inundation mappings are discussed and compared. Probabilistic flood inundation mappings are hoped to provide new physical insights in support of the evaluation of concerning reservoir flooded areas.

Development of reliability-based load and resistance factor design methods for piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayyub, Bilal M.; Hill, Ralph S. III; Balkey, Kenneth R.

2003-01-01

Current American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) nuclear codes and standards rely primarily on deterministic and mechanistic approaches to design. The American Institute of Steel Construction and the American Concrete Institute, among other organizations, have incorporated probabilistic methodologies into their design codes. ASME nuclear codes and standards could benefit from developing a probabilistic, reliability-based, design methodology. This paper provides a plan to develop the technical basis for reliability-based, load and resistance factor design of ASME Section III, Class 2/3 piping for primary loading, i.e., pressure, deadweight and seismic. The plan provides a proof of concept in that LRFD can be used in the design of piping, and could achieve consistent reliability levels. Also, the results from future projects in this area could form the basis for code cases, and additional research for piping secondary loads. (author)

Integration of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment and Probabilistic Hazard Characterization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voet, van der H.; Slob, W.

2007-01-01

A method is proposed for integrated probabilistic risk assessment where exposure assessment and hazard characterization are both included in a probabilistic way. The aim is to specify the probability that a random individual from a defined (sub)population will have an exposure high enough to cause a

Probabilistic Capacity Assessment of Lattice Transmission Towers under Strong Wind

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei eZhang

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Serving as one key component of the most important lifeline infrastructure system, transmission towers are vulnerable to multiple nature hazards including strong wind and could pose severe threats to the power system security with possible blackouts under extreme weather conditions, such as hurricanes, derechoes, or winter storms. For the security and resiliency of the power system, it is important to ensure the structural safety with enough capacity for all possible failure modes, such as structural stability. The study is to develop a probabilistic capacity assessment approach for transmission towers under strong wind loads. Due to the complicated structural details of lattice transmission towers, wind tunnel experiments are carried out to understand the complex interactions of wind and the lattice sections of transmission tower and drag coefficients and the dynamic amplification factor for different panels of the transmission tower are obtained. The wind profile is generated and the wind time histories are simulated as a summation of time-varying mean and fluctuating components. The capacity curve for the transmission towers is obtained from the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA method. To consider the stochastic nature of wind field, probabilistic capacity curves are generated by implementing IDA analysis for different wind yaw angles and different randomly generated wind speed time histories. After building the limit state functions based on the maximum allowable drift to height ratio, the probabilities of failure are obtained based on the meteorological data at a given site. As the transmission tower serves as the key nodes for the power network, the probabilistic capacity curves can be incorporated into the performance based design of the power transmission network.

Structural Reliability of Wind Turbine Blades

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov

turbine blades. The main purpose is to draw a clear picture of how reliability-based design of wind turbines can be done in practice. The objectives of the thesis are to create methodologies for efficient reliability assessment of composite materials and composite wind turbine blades, and to map...... the uncertainties in the processes, materials and external conditions that have an effect on the health of a composite structure. The study considers all stages in a reliability analysis, from defining models of structural components to obtaining the reliability index and calibration of partial safety factors...... by developing new models and standards or carrying out tests The following aspects are covered in detail: ⋅ The probabilistic aspects of ultimate strength of composite laminates are addressed. Laminated plates are considered as a general structural reliability system where each layer in a laminate is a separate...

Probabilistic Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Finn Verner; Lauritzen, Steffen Lilholt

2001-01-01

This article describes the basic ideas and algorithms behind specification and inference in probabilistic networks based on directed acyclic graphs, undirected graphs, and chain graphs.......This article describes the basic ideas and algorithms behind specification and inference in probabilistic networks based on directed acyclic graphs, undirected graphs, and chain graphs....

Very Short-term Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation - with Application to Solar Energy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Golestaneh, Faranak; Pinson, Pierre; Gooi, Hoay Beng

2016-01-01

Due to the inherent uncertainty involved in renewable energy forecasting, uncertainty quantification is a key input to maintain acceptable levels of reliability and profitability in power system operation. A proposal is formulated and evaluated here for the case of solar power generation, when only...... approach to generate very short-term predictive densities, i.e., for lead times between a few minutes to one hour ahead, with fast frequency updates. We rely on an Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) as a fast regression model, trained in varied ways to obtain both point and quantile forecasts of solar power...... generation. Four probabilistic methods are implemented as benchmarks. Rival approaches are evaluated based on a number of test cases for two solar power generation sites in different climatic regions, allowing us to show that our approach results in generation of skilful and reliable probabilistic forecasts...

Probabilistic pipe fracture evaluations for applications to leak-rate detection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rahman, S; Wilkowski, G; Ghadiali, N [Battelle Columbus Labs., OH (United States)

1993-12-31

Stochastic pipe fracture evaluations are conducted for applications to leak-rate detection. A state-of-the-art review was first conducted to evaluate the adequacy of current deterministic models for thermo-hydraulic and elastic-plastic fracture analyses. Then a new probabilistic model was developed with the above deterministic models for structural reliability analysis of cracked piping systems and statistical characterization of crack morphology parameters, material properties of pipe, and crack location. The proposed models are then applied for computing conditional probability of failure for various nuclear piping systems in BWR and PWR plants. The PRAISE code was not used, and the probabilistic model is based on modern methods of stochastic mechanics, computationally far superior to Monte Carlo and Stratified Sampling methods used in PRAISE. 10 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

Probabilistic pipe fracture evaluations for applications to leak-rate detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahman, S.; Wilkowski, G.; Ghadiali, N.

1992-01-01

Stochastic pipe fracture evaluations are conducted for applications to leak-rate detection. A state-of-the-art review was first conducted to evaluate the adequacy of current deterministic models for thermo-hydraulic and elastic-plastic fracture analyses. Then a new probabilistic model was developed with the above deterministic models for structural reliability analysis of cracked piping systems and statistical characterization of crack morphology parameters, material properties of pipe, and crack location. The proposed models are then applied for computing conditional probability of failure for various nuclear piping systems in BWR and PWR plants. The PRAISE code was not used, and the probabilistic model is based on modern methods of stochastic mechanics, computationally far superior to Monte Carlo and Stratified Sampling methods used in PRAISE. 10 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab

Waste package reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pescatore, C.; Sastre, C.

1983-01-01

Proof of future performance of a complex system such as a high-level nuclear waste package over a period of hundreds to thousands of years cannot be had in the ordinary sense of the word. The general method of probabilistic reliability analysis could provide an acceptable framework to identify, organize, and convey the information necessary to satisfy the criterion of reasonable assurance of waste package performance according to the regulatory requirements set forth in 10 CFR 60. General principles which may be used to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative reliability of a waste package design are indicated and illustrated with a sample calculation of a repository concept in basalt. 8 references, 1 table

The importance of probabilistic evaluations in connection with risk analyses according to technical safety laws

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathiak, E.

1984-01-01

The nuclear energy sector exemplifies the essential importance to be attached to the practical application of probabilistic evaluations (e.g. probabilistic reliability analyses) in connection with the legal risk assessment of technical systems and installations. The study is making use of a triad risk analysis and tries to reconcile the natural science and legal points of view. Without changing the definitions of 'risk' and 'hazard' in the legal sense of their meaning the publication discusses their reconcilation with the laws of natural science, their interpretation and application in view of the latter. (HSCH) [de

Application of Reliability in Breakwater Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiani, Erik

methods to design certain types of breakwaters. Reliability analyses of the main armour and toe berm interaction is exemplified to show the effect of a multiple set of failure mechanisms. First the limit state equations of the main armour and toe interaction are derived from laboratory tests performed...... response, but in one area information has been lacking; bearing capacity has not been treated in depth in a probabilistic manner for breakwaters. Reliability analysis of conventional rubble mound breakwaters and conventional vertical breakwaters is exemplified for the purpose of establishing new ways...... by Bologna University. Thereafter a multiple system of failure for the interaction is established. Relevant stochastic parameters are characterized prior to the reliability evaluation. Application of reliability in crown wall design is illustrated by deriving relevant single foundation failure modes...

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

Science.gov (United States)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Stutts, Richard; Huang, Zhaofeng

2015-01-01

The objective of this presentation is to discuss the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline, their differences and similarities, and how they are used as complimentary analyses to support design and flight decisions.

Probabilistic Logical Characterization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hermanns, Holger; Parma, Augusto; Segala, Roberto

2011-01-01

Probabilistic automata exhibit both probabilistic and non-deterministic choice. They are therefore a powerful semantic foundation for modeling concurrent systems with random phenomena arising in many applications ranging from artificial intelligence, security, systems biology to performance...... modeling. Several variations of bisimulation and simulation relations have proved to be useful as means to abstract and compare different automata. This paper develops a taxonomy of logical characterizations of these relations on image-finite and image-infinite probabilistic automata....

Probabilistic metric spaces

CERN Document Server

Schweizer, B

2005-01-01

Topics include special classes of probabilistic metric spaces, topologies, and several related structures, such as probabilistic normed and inner-product spaces. 1983 edition, updated with 3 new appendixes. Includes 17 illustrations.

Simplified probabilistic approach to determine safety factors in deterministic flaw acceptance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barthelet, B.; Ardillon, E.

1997-01-01

The flaw acceptance rules in nuclear components rely on deterministic criteria supposed to ensure the safe operating of plants. The interest of having a reliable method of evaluating the safety margins and the integrity of components led Electricite de France to launch a study to link safety factors with requested reliability. A simplified analytical probabilistic approach is developed to analyse the failure risk in Fracture Mechanics. Assuming lognormal distributions of the main random variables, it is possible considering a simple Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics model, to determine the failure probability as a function of mean values and logarithmic standard deviations. The 'design' failure point can be analytically calculated. Partial safety factors on the main variables (stress, crack size, material toughness) are obtained in relation with reliability target values. The approach is generalized to elastic plastic Fracture Mechanics (piping) by fitting J as a power law function of stress, crack size and yield strength. The simplified approach is validated by detailed probabilistic computations with PROBAN computer program. Assuming reasonable coefficients of variations (logarithmic standard deviations), the method helps to calibrate safety factors for different components taking into account reliability target values in normal, emergency and faulted conditions. Statistical data for the mechanical properties of the main basic materials complement the study. The work involves laboratory results and manufacture data. The results of this study are discussed within a working group of the French in service inspection code RSE-M. (authors)

Kuhn-Tucker optimization based reliability analysis for probabilistic finite elements

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, W. K.; Besterfield, G.; Lawrence, M.; Belytschko, T.

1988-01-01

The fusion of probability finite element method (PFEM) and reliability analysis for fracture mechanics is considered. Reliability analysis with specific application to fracture mechanics is presented, and computational procedures are discussed. Explicit expressions for the optimization procedure with regard to fracture mechanics are given. The results show the PFEM is a very powerful tool in determining the second-moment statistics. The method can determine the probability of failure or fracture subject to randomness in load, material properties and crack length, orientation, and location.

Probabilistic record linkage.

Science.gov (United States)

Sayers, Adrian; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Blom, Ashley W; Steele, Fiona

2016-06-01

Studies involving the use of probabilistic record linkage are becoming increasingly common. However, the methods underpinning probabilistic record linkage are not widely taught or understood, and therefore these studies can appear to be a 'black box' research tool. In this article, we aim to describe the process of probabilistic record linkage through a simple exemplar. We first introduce the concept of deterministic linkage and contrast this with probabilistic linkage. We illustrate each step of the process using a simple exemplar and describe the data structure required to perform a probabilistic linkage. We describe the process of calculating and interpreting matched weights and how to convert matched weights into posterior probabilities of a match using Bayes theorem. We conclude this article with a brief discussion of some of the computational demands of record linkage, how you might assess the quality of your linkage algorithm, and how epidemiologists can maximize the value of their record-linked research using robust record linkage methods. © The Author 2015; Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Time-dependent reliability analysis of nuclear reactor operators using probabilistic network models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oka, Y.; Miyata, K.; Kodaira, H.; Murakami, S.; Kondo, S.; Togo, Y.

1987-01-01

Human factors are very important for the reliability of a nuclear power plant. Human behavior has essentially a time-dependent nature. The details of thinking and decision making processes are important for detailed analysis of human reliability. They have, however, not been well considered by the conventional methods of human reliability analysis. The present paper describes the models for the time-dependent and detailed human reliability analysis. Recovery by an operator is taken into account and two-operators models are also presented

Deterministic and Probabilistic Analysis of NPP Communication Bridge Resistance Due to Extreme Loads

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Králik Juraj

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the experiences from the deterministic and probability analysis of the reliability of communication bridge structure resistance due to extreme loads - wind and earthquake. On the example of the steel bridge between two NPP buildings is considered the efficiency of the bracing systems. The advantages and disadvantages of the deterministic and probabilistic analysis of the structure resistance are discussed. The advantages of the utilization the LHS method to analyze the safety and reliability of the structures is presented

Analysis of NPP protection structure reliability under impact of a falling aircraft

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shul'man, G.S.

1996-01-01

Methodology for evaluation of NPP protection structure reliability by impact of aircraft fall down is considered. The methodology is base on the probabilistic analysis of all potential events. The problem is solved in three stages: determination of loads on structural units, calculation of local reliability of protection structures by assigned loads and estimation of the structure reliability. The methodology proposed may be applied at the NPP design stage and by determination of reliability of already available structures

Identification of Black Spots Based on Reliability Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmadreza Ghaffari

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Identifying crash “black-spots”, “hot-spots” or “high-risk” locations is one of the most important and prevalent concerns in traffic safety and various methods have been devised and presented for solving this issue until now. In this paper, a new method based on the reliability analysis is presented to identify black-spots. Reliability analysis has an ordered framework to consider the probabilistic nature of engineering problems, so crashes with their probabilistic na -ture can be applied. In this study, the application of this new method was compared with the commonly implemented Frequency and Empirical Bayesian methods using simulated data. The results indicated that the traditional methods can lead to an inconsistent prediction due to their inconsider -ation of the variance of the number of crashes in each site and their dependence on the mean of the data.

Probabilistic methods applied to the safety of nuclear power plant: annual report - 1980. Part. 1: theoretical fundaments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Hesles, J.B.S.; Milidiu, R.L.; Maciel, C.C.; Gibelli, S.M.O.; Oliveira, L.C.; Fleming, P.V.; Rivera, R.R.J.

1981-02-01

The probabilistic Safety Analysis Group from COPPE was founded in 1980. This first part of the report shows the theoretical fundaments used for reliability analysis of some safety systems for Angra-1 [pt

Future of structural reliability methodology in nuclear power plant technology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schueeller, G I [Technische Univ. Muenchen (Germany, F.R.); Kafka, P [Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit m.b.H. (GRS), Garching (Germany, F.R.)

1978-10-01

This paper presents the authors' personal view as to which areas of structural reliability in nuclear power plant design need most urgently to be advanced. Aspects of simulation modeling, design rules, codification and specification of reliability, system analysis, probabilistic structural dynamics, rare events and particularly the interaction of systems and structural reliability are discussed. As an example, some considerations of the interaction effects between the protective systems and the pressure vessel are stated. The paper concludes with recommendation for further research.

Probabilistic Analysis of Wear of Polymer Material used in Medical Implants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Goswami

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Probabilistic methods are applied to the study of fatigue wear of sliding surfaces. A variance of time to failure (to occurrence of maximum allowable wear depth is evaluated as a function of a mean wear rate of normal wear and a size of wear particles. A method of estimating probability of failure-free work during a certain time interval (reliability is presented. An effect of the bedding-in phase of wear on the reliability is taken into account. Experimental data for Ultra High Molecular Weight Polyethylene (UHMWPE cups of artificial hip implants is used to make numerical calculations.

Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Berk, Mario; Å pačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-12-01

The design storm approach with event-based rainfall-runoff models is a standard method for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments. The approach is conceptually simple and computationally inexpensive, but the underlying assumptions can lead to flawed design flood estimations. In particular, the implied average recurrence interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff neglects uncertainty in other important parameters, leading to an underestimation of design floods. The selection of a single representative critical rainfall duration in the analysis leads to an additional underestimation of design floods. One way to overcome these nonconservative approximations is the use of a continuous rainfall-runoff model, which is associated with significant computational cost and requires rainfall input data that are often not readily available. As an alternative, we propose a novel Probabilistic Design Storm method that combines event-based flood modeling with basic probabilistic models and concepts from reliability analysis, in particular the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the standard design storm approach, while utilizing the same input information and models without excessive computational effort. Additionally, the Probabilistic Design Storm method allows deriving so-called design charts, which summarize representative design storm events (combinations of rainfall intensity and other relevant parameters) for floods with different return periods. These can be used to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff return periods. We demonstrate, investigate, and validate the method by means of an example catchment located in the Bavarian Pre-Alps, in combination with a simple hydrological model commonly used in practice.

Neglect Of Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Can Significantly Overestimate Structural Reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rózsás Árpád

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Parameter estimation uncertainty is often neglected in reliability studies, i.e. point estimates of distribution parameters are used for representative fractiles, and in probabilistic models. A numerical example examines the effect of this uncertainty on structural reliability using Bayesian statistics. The study reveals that the neglect of parameter estimation uncertainty might lead to an order of magnitude underestimation of failure probability.

Structural Optimization with Reliability Constraints

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

1986-01-01

During the last 25 years considerable progress has been made in the fields of structural optimization and structural reliability theory. In classical deterministic structural optimization all variables are assumed to be deterministic. Due to the unpredictability of loads and strengths of actual......]. In this paper we consider only structures which can be modelled as systems of elasto-plastic elements, e.g. frame and truss structures. In section 2 a method to evaluate the reliability of such structural systems is presented. Based on a probabilistic point of view a modern structural optimization problem...... is formulated in section 3. The formulation is a natural extension of the commonly used formulations in determinstic structural optimization. The mathematical form of the optimization problem is briefly discussed. In section 4 two new optimization procedures especially designed for the reliability...

Reliability data of fire protection equipment and features in German nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roewekamp, M.; Riekert, T.; Sehrbrock, W.

1997-01-01

In order to perform probabilistic fire safety analyses, a comprehensive data base is needed including physical characteristics of fire compartments and their inventory, fire occurrence frequencies, technical reliability data for all fire-related equipment, human actions and human error probabilities, etc. In order to provide updated and realistic reliability data, the operational behaviour of different fire protection features in two German nuclear power plants was analysed in the framework of the study presented here. The analyses are based on the examination of reported results of the regular inspection and maintenance programs for nuclear power plants. Besides a plant specific assessment of the reliability data a generic assessment for an application as input data for fault tree analyses in the framework of probabilistic risk studies for other German plants was carried out. The analyses of failures and unavailabilities gave the impression that most of them are single failures without relevance for the plant safety. The data gained from NPPs were compared to reliability data of the German insurance companies for the same protection features installed in non-nuclear installations and to older nuclear specific reliability data. This comparison showed up a higher reliability. (orig.) [de

Structural Reliability Methods for Wind Power Converter System Component Reliability Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2012-01-01

Wind power converter systems are essential subsystems in both off-shore and on-shore wind turbines. It is the main interface between generator and grid connection. This system is affected by numerous stresses where the main contributors might be defined as vibration and temperature loadings....... The temperature variations induce time-varying stresses and thereby fatigue loads. A probabilistic model is used to model fatigue failure for an electrical component in the power converter system. This model is based on a linear damage accumulation and physics of failure approaches, where a failure criterion...... is defined by the threshold model. The attention is focused on crack propagation in solder joints of electrical components due to the temperature loadings. Structural Reliability approaches are used to incorporate model, physical and statistical uncertainties. Reliability estimation by means of structural...

Probabilistic forecasting for extreme NO2 pollution episodes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aznarte, José L.

2017-01-01

In this study, we investigate the convenience of quantile regression to predict extreme concentrations of NO 2 . Contrarily to the usual point-forecasting, where a single value is forecast for each horizon, probabilistic forecasting through quantile regression allows for the prediction of the full probability distribution, which in turn allows to build models specifically fit for the tails of this distribution. Using data from the city of Madrid, including NO 2 concentrations as well as meteorological measures, we build models that predict extreme NO 2 concentrations, outperforming point-forecasting alternatives, and we prove that the predictions are accurate, reliable and sharp. Besides, we study the relative importance of the independent variables involved, and show how the important variables for the median quantile are different than those important for the upper quantiles. Furthermore, we present a method to compute the probability of exceedance of thresholds, which is a simple and comprehensible manner to present probabilistic forecasts maximizing their usefulness. - Highlights: • A new probabilistic forecasting system is presented to predict NO 2 concentrations. • While predicting the full distribution, it also outperforms other point-forecasting models. • Forecasts show good properties and peak concentrations are properly predicted. • It forecasts the probability of exceedance of thresholds, key to decision makers. • Relative forecasting importance of the variables is obtained as a by-product.

Cognitive human reliability analysis for an assessment of the safety significance of complex transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amico, P.J.; Hsu, C.J.; Youngblood, R.W.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.

1989-01-01

This paper reports that as part of a probabilistic assessment of the safety significance of complex transients at certain PWR power plants, it was necessary to perform a cognitive human reliability analysis. To increase the confidence in the results, it was desirable to make use of actual observations of operator response which were available for the assessment. An approach was developed which incorporated these observations into the human cognitive reliability (HCR) modeling approach. The results obtained provided additional insights over what would have been found using other approaches. These insights were supported by the observations, and it is suggested that this approach be considered for use in future probabilistic safety assessments

Disjunctive Probabilistic Modal Logic is Enough for Bisimilarity on Reactive Probabilistic Systems

OpenAIRE

Bernardo, Marco; Miculan, Marino

2016-01-01

Larsen and Skou characterized probabilistic bisimilarity over reactive probabilistic systems with a logic including true, negation, conjunction, and a diamond modality decorated with a probabilistic lower bound. Later on, Desharnais, Edalat, and Panangaden showed that negation is not necessary to characterize the same equivalence. In this paper, we prove that the logical characterization holds also when conjunction is replaced by disjunction, with negation still being not necessary. To this e...

Reliability Worth Analysis of Distribution Systems Using Cascade Correlation Neural Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heidari, Alireza; Agelidis, Vassilios; Pou, Josep

2018-01-01

Reliability worth analysis is of great importance in the area of distribution network planning and operation. The reliability worth's precision can be affected greatly by the customer interruption cost model used. The choice of the cost models can change system and load point reliability indices....... In this study, a cascade correlation neural network is adopted to further develop two cost models comprising a probabilistic distribution model and an average or aggregate model. A contingency-based analytical technique is adopted to conduct the reliability worth analysis. Furthermore, the possible effects...

Procedure for Application of Software Reliability Growth Models to NPP PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Son, Han Seong; Kang, Hyun Gook; Chang, Seung Cheol

2009-01-01

As the use of software increases at nuclear power plants (NPPs), the necessity for including software reliability and/or safety into the NPP Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) rises. This work proposes an application procedure of software reliability growth models (RGMs), which are most widely used to quantify software reliability, to NPP PSA. Through the proposed procedure, it can be determined if a software reliability growth model can be applied to the NPP PSA before its real application. The procedure proposed in this work is expected to be very helpful for incorporating software into NPP PSA

Reliability Analysis of Adhesive Bonded Scarf Joints

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kimiaeifar, Amin; Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Lund, Erik

2012-01-01

element analysis (FEA). For the reliability analysis a design equation is considered which is related to a deterministic code-based design equation where reliability is secured by partial safety factors together with characteristic values for the material properties and loads. The failure criteria......A probabilistic model for the reliability analysis of adhesive bonded scarfed lap joints subjected to static loading is developed. It is representative for the main laminate in a wind turbine blade subjected to flapwise bending. The structural analysis is based on a three dimensional (3D) finite...... are formulated using a von Mises, a modified von Mises and a maximum stress failure criterion. The reliability level is estimated for the scarfed lap joint and this is compared with the target reliability level implicitly used in the wind turbine standard IEC 61400-1. A convergence study is performed to validate...

New Aspects of Probabilistic Forecast Verification Using Information Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Tödter, Julian; Ahrens, Bodo

2013-04-01

This work deals with information-theoretical methods in probabilistic forecast verification, particularly concerning ensemble forecasts. Recent findings concerning the "Ignorance Score" are shortly reviewed, then a consistent generalization to continuous forecasts is motivated. For ensemble-generated forecasts, the presented measures can be calculated exactly. The Brier Score (BS) and its generalizations to the multi-categorical Ranked Probability Score (RPS) and to the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) are prominent verification measures for probabilistic forecasts. Particularly, their decompositions into measures quantifying the reliability, resolution and uncertainty of the forecasts are attractive. Information theory sets up a natural framework for forecast verification. Recently, it has been shown that the BS is a second-order approximation of the information-based Ignorance Score (IGN), which also contains easily interpretable components and can also be generalized to a ranked version (RIGN). Here, the IGN, its generalizations and decompositions are systematically discussed in analogy to the variants of the BS. Additionally, a Continuous Ranked IGN (CRIGN) is introduced in analogy to the CRPS. The useful properties of the conceptually appealing CRIGN are illustrated, together with an algorithm to evaluate its components reliability, resolution, and uncertainty for ensemble-generated forecasts. This algorithm can also be used to calculate the decomposition of the more traditional CRPS exactly. The applicability of the "new" measures is demonstrated in a small evaluation study of ensemble-based precipitation forecasts.

Pipe fracture evaluations for leak-rate detection: Probabilistic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahman, S.; Wilkowski, G.; Ghadiali, N.

1993-01-01

This is the second in series of three papers generated from studies on nuclear pipe fracture evaluations for leak-rate detection. This paper focuses on the development of novel probabilistic models for stochastic performance evaluation of degraded nuclear piping systems. It was accomplished here in three distinct stages. First, a statistical analysis was conducted to characterize various input variables for thermo-hydraulic analysis and elastic-plastic fracture mechanics, such as material properties of pipe, crack morphology variables, and location of cracks found in nuclear piping. Second, a new stochastic model was developed to evaluate performance of degraded piping systems. It is based on accurate deterministic models for thermo-hydraulic and fracture mechanics analyses described in the first paper, statistical characterization of various input variables, and state-of-the-art methods of modem structural reliability theory. From this model. the conditional probability of failure as a function of leak-rate detection capability of the piping systems can be predicted. Third, a numerical example was presented to illustrate the proposed model for piping reliability analyses. Results clearly showed that the model provides satisfactory estimates of conditional failure probability with much less computational effort when compared with those obtained from Monte Carlo simulation. The probabilistic model developed in this paper will be applied to various piping in boiling water reactor and pressurized water reactor plants for leak-rate detection applications

Characteristics and application study of AP1000 NPPs equipment reliability classification method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guan Gao

2013-01-01

AP1000 nuclear power plant applies an integrated approach to establish equipment reliability classification, which includes probabilistic risk assessment technique, maintenance rule administrative, power production reliability classification and functional equipment group bounding method, and eventually classify equipment reliability into 4 levels. This classification process and result are very different from classical RCM and streamlined RCM. It studied the characteristic of AP1000 equipment reliability classification approach, considered that equipment reliability classification should effectively support maintenance strategy development and work process control, recommended to use a combined RCM method to establish the future equipment reliability program of AP1000 nuclear power plants. (authors)

Probabilistic Modelling of Information Propagation in Wireless Mobile Ad-Hoc Network

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schiøler, Henrik; Hansen, Martin Bøgsted; Schwefel, Hans-Peter

2005-01-01

In this paper the dynamics of broadcasting wireless ad-hoc networks is studied through probabilistic modelling. A randomized transmission discipline is assumed in accordance with existing MAC definitions such as WLAN with Decentralized Coordination or IEEE-802.15.4. Message reception is assumed...... to be governed by node power-down policies and is equivalently assumed to be randomized. Altogether randomization facilitates a probabilistic model in the shape of an integro-differential equation governing the propagation of information, where brownian node mobility may be accounted for by including an extra...... diffusion term. The established model is analyzed for transient behaviour and a travelling wave solution facilitates expressions for propagation speed as well as parametrized analysis of network reliability and node power consumption. Applications of the developed models for node localization and network...

Use of COMCAN III in system design and reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmuson, D.M.; Shepherd, J.C.; Marshall, N.H.; Fitch, L.R.

1982-03-01

This manual describes the COMCAN III computer program and its use. COMCAN III is a tool that can be used by the reliability analyst performing a probabilistic risk assessment or by the designer of a system desiring improved performance and efficiency. COMCAN III can be used to determine minimal cut sets of a fault tree, to calculate system reliability characteristics, and to perform qualitative common cause failure analysis

An accurate and efficient reliability-based design optimization using the second order reliability method and improved stability transformation method

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Zeng; Yang, Dixiong; Zhou, Huanlin; Yu, Bo

2018-05-01

The first order reliability method has been extensively adopted for reliability-based design optimization (RBDO), but it shows inaccuracy in calculating the failure probability with highly nonlinear performance functions. Thus, the second order reliability method is required to evaluate the reliability accurately. However, its application for RBDO is quite challenge owing to the expensive computational cost incurred by the repeated reliability evaluation and Hessian calculation of probabilistic constraints. In this article, a new improved stability transformation method is proposed to search the most probable point efficiently, and the Hessian matrix is calculated by the symmetric rank-one update. The computational capability of the proposed method is illustrated and compared to the existing RBDO approaches through three mathematical and two engineering examples. The comparison results indicate that the proposed method is very efficient and accurate, providing an alternative tool for RBDO of engineering structures.

Determining the reliability function of the thermal power system in power plant "Nikola Tesla, Block B1"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kalaba Dragan V.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Representation of probabilistic technique for evaluation of thermal power system reliability is the main subject of this paper. The system of thermal power plant under study consists of three subsystems and the reliability assessment is based on a sixteen-year failure database. By applying the mathematical theory of reliability to exploitation research data and using complex two-parameter Weibull distribution, the theoretical reliability functions of specified system have been determined. Obtained probabilistic laws of failure occurrence have confirmed a hypothesis that the distribution of the observed random variable fully describes behaviour of such a system in terms of reliability. Shown results make possible to acquire a better knowledge of current state of the system, as well as a more accurate estimation of its behavior during future exploitation. Final benefit is opportunity for potential improvement of complex system maintenance policies aimed at the reduction of unexpected failure occurrences.

Probabilistic forecasting of the solar irradiance with recursive ARMA and GARCH models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

David, M.; Ramahatana, F.; Trombe, Pierre-Julien

2016-01-01

Forecasting of the solar irradiance is a key feature in order to increase the penetration rate of solar energy into the energy grids. Indeed, the anticipation of the fluctuations of the solar renewables allows a better management of the production means of electricity and a better operation...... sky index show some similarities with that of financial time series. The aim of this paper is to assess the performances of a commonly used combination of two linear models (ARMA and GARCH) in econometrics in order to provide probabilistic forecasts of solar irradiance. In addition, a recursive...... regarding the statistical distribution of the error, the reliability of the probabilistic forecasts stands in the same order of magnitude as other works done in the field of solar forecasting....

Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, J.K.

1992-01-01

Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

Duplicate Detection in Probabilistic Data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Panse, Fabian; van Keulen, Maurice; de Keijzer, Ander; Ritter, Norbert

2009-01-01

Collected data often contains uncertainties. Probabilistic databases have been proposed to manage uncertain data. To combine data from multiple autonomous probabilistic databases, an integration of probabilistic data has to be performed. Until now, however, data integration approaches have focused

Reliability Based Ship Structural Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dogliani, M.; Østergaard, C.; Parmentier, G.

1996-01-01

This paper deals with the development of different methods that allow the reliability-based design of ship structures to be transferred from the area of research to the systematic application in current design. It summarises the achievements of a three-year collaborative research project dealing...... with developments of models of load effects and of structural collapse adopted in reliability formulations which aim at calibrating partial safety factors for ship structural design. New probabilistic models of still-water load effects are developed both for tankers and for containerships. New results are presented...... structure of several tankers and containerships. The results of the reliability analysis were the basis for the definition of a target safety level which was used to asses the partial safety factors suitable for in a new design rules format to be adopted in modern ship structural design. Finally...

Probabilistic safety assessment; actions and priorities in the EC-frame

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amendola, A.; Mancini, G.; Volta, G.

1987-01-01

An overview is given of PSA research activities at the JRC and through shared cost actions with national laboratories under the nuclear reactor safety and major hazards of industrial installations programmes. These activities are directed towards the development of methods for PSA, the validation methods and the setting up of appropriate data bases. PSA is also directly or indirectly an emerging theme for the coordination activities in the area of nuclear safety criteria and safety objectives. Finally probabilistic techniques being increasing by being used for safety and reliability in various industrial sectors the CEC supported the preparation and setting up of a European Safety and Reliability Association that carries different types of actions. (orig.)

Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, Rianne; van der Voet, Hilko; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5-200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.

Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobs, Rianne; Voet, Hilko van der; Braak, Cajo J. F. ter

2015-01-01

Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5–200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects

Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jacobs, Rianne, E-mail: rianne.jacobs@wur.nl; Voet, Hilko van der; Braak, Cajo J. F. ter [Wageningen University and Research Centre, Biometris (Netherlands)

2015-06-15

Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5–200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.

Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

Confluence reduction for probabilistic systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

In this presentation we introduce a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We proved that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To

Development Of Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment: The Accident Dynamic Simulator (ADS) Tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Y.H.; Mosleh, A.; Dang, V.N.

2003-01-01

The development of a dynamic methodology for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) addresses the complex interactions between the behaviour of technical systems and personnel response in the evolution of accident scenarios. This paper introduces the discrete dynamic event tree, a framework for dynamic PSA, and its implementation in the Accident Dynamic Simulator (ADS) tool. Dynamic event tree tools generate and quantify accident scenarios through coupled simulation models of the plant physical processes, its automatic systems, the equipment reliability, and the human response. The current research on the framework, the ADS tool, and on Human Reliability Analysis issues within dynamic PSA, is discussed. (author)

Development Of Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment: The Accident Dynamic Simulator (ADS) Tool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Y.H.; Mosleh, A.; Dang, V.N

2003-03-01

The development of a dynamic methodology for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) addresses the complex interactions between the behaviour of technical systems and personnel response in the evolution of accident scenarios. This paper introduces the discrete dynamic event tree, a framework for dynamic PSA, and its implementation in the Accident Dynamic Simulator (ADS) tool. Dynamic event tree tools generate and quantify accident scenarios through coupled simulation models of the plant physical processes, its automatic systems, the equipment reliability, and the human response. The current research on the framework, the ADS tool, and on Human Reliability Analysis issues within dynamic PSA, is discussed. (author)

Probabilistic calibration of safety coefficients for flawed components in nuclear engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ardillon, E.; Pitner, P.; Barthelet, B.; Remond, A.

1996-01-01

The rules that are currently under application to verify the acceptance of flaws in nuclear components rely on deterministic criteria supposed to ensure the safe operating of plants. The interest of having a precise and reliable method to evaluate the safety margins and the integrity of components led Electricite de France to launch an approach to link directly safety coefficients with safety levels. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology to calibrate safety coefficients in relation to reliability target values. The proposed calibration procedure applies to the case of a ferritic flawed pipe using the R6 procedure for assessing the integrity of the structure. (authors). 5 refs., 5 figs

Probabilistic calibration of safety coefficients for flawed components in nuclear engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ardillon, E.; Pitner, P.; Barthelet, B.; Remond, A.

1995-01-01

The current rules applied to verify the flaws acceptance in nuclear components rely on deterministic criteria supposed to ensure the plant safe operation. The interest in have a precise and reliable method to evaluate the safety margins and the integrity of components led Electricite de France to launch an approach to link directly safety coefficients with safety levels. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology to calibrate safety coefficients in relation do reliability target values. The proposed calibration procedure applies to the case of a ferritic flawed pipe using the R 6 procedure for assessing the structure integrity. (author). 5 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

Probabilistic systems coalgebraically: A survey

Science.gov (United States)

Sokolova, Ana

2011-01-01

We survey the work on both discrete and continuous-space probabilistic systems as coalgebras, starting with how probabilistic systems are modeled as coalgebras and followed by a discussion of their bisimilarity and behavioral equivalence, mentioning results that follow from the coalgebraic treatment of probabilistic systems. It is interesting to note that, for different reasons, for both discrete and continuous probabilistic systems it may be more convenient to work with behavioral equivalence than with bisimilarity. PMID:21998490

Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2014-03-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

Probabilistic Dynamics for Integrated Analysis of Accident Sequences considering Uncertain Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robertas Alzbutas

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The analytical/deterministic modelling and simulation/probabilistic methods are used separately as a rule in order to analyse the physical processes and random or uncertain events. However, in the currently used probabilistic safety assessment this is an issue. The lack of treatment of dynamic interactions between the physical processes on one hand and random events on the other hand causes the limited assessment. In general, there are a lot of mathematical modelling theories, which can be used separately or integrated in order to extend possibilities of modelling and analysis. The Theory of Probabilistic Dynamics (TPD and its augmented version based on the concept of stimulus and delay are introduced for the dynamic reliability modelling and the simulation of accidents in hybrid (continuous-discrete systems considering uncertain events. An approach of non-Markovian simulation and uncertainty analysis is discussed in order to adapt the Stimulus-Driven TPD for practical applications. The developed approach and related methods are used as a basis for a test case simulation in view of various methods applications for severe accident scenario simulation and uncertainty analysis. For this and for wider analysis of accident sequences the initial test case specification is then extended and discussed. Finally, it is concluded that enhancing the modelling of stimulated dynamics with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis allows the detailed simulation of complex system characteristics and representation of their uncertainty. The developed approach of accident modelling and analysis can be efficiently used to estimate the reliability of hybrid systems and at the same time to analyze and possibly decrease the uncertainty of this estimate.

Deterministic and Probabilistic Serviceability Assessment of Footbridge Vibrations due to a Single Walker Crossing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristoforo Demartino

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a numerical study on the deterministic and probabilistic serviceability assessment of footbridge vibrations due to a single walker crossing. The dynamic response of the footbridge is analyzed by means of modal analysis, considering only the first lateral and vertical modes. Single span footbridges with uniform mass distribution are considered, with different values of the span length, natural frequencies, mass, and structural damping and with different support conditions. The load induced by a single walker crossing the footbridge is modeled as a moving sinusoidal force either in the lateral or in the vertical direction. The variability of the characteristics of the load induced by walkers is modeled using probability distributions taken from the literature defining a Standard Population of walkers. Deterministic and probabilistic approaches were adopted to assess the peak response. Based on the results of the simulations, deterministic and probabilistic vibration serviceability assessment methods are proposed, not requiring numerical analyses. Finally, an example of the application of the proposed method to a truss steel footbridge is presented. The results highlight the advantages of the probabilistic procedure in terms of reliability quantification.

Probabilistic causality, selection bias, and the logic of the democratic peace

OpenAIRE

Slantchev, Branislav L; Alexandrova, A; Gartzke, E

2005-01-01

Rosato (2003) claims to have discredited democratic peace theories. However, the methodological approach adopted by the study cannot reliably generate the conclusions espoused by the author. Rosato seems to misunderstand the probabilistic nature of most arguments about democratic peace and ignores issues that an appropriate research design should account for. Further, the study's use of case studies and data sets without attention to selection-bias produces examples that actually support theo...

Probabilistic evaluation of fire protection features found in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Ruger, C.

1985-01-01

This paper describes a method which can be used to evaluate, on a relative basis, the NRC Fire Protection (FP) guidelines as found in Section 9.5.1 (Fire Protection) of the Standard Review Plan (SRP). The approach, a hybrid of existing physical models for fire propagation determinations and probabilistic models for fire-mitigation system reliability, can potentially be used as an adjunct to the present fire safety review process

Advanced Reactor Passive System Reliability Demonstration Analysis for an External Event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew Bucknor

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general for the postulated transient event.

Advanced reactor passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.; Grelle, Austin [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne (United States)

2017-03-15

Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event.

Advanced reactor passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.; Grelle, Austin

2017-01-01

Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event

Using DOProC method in reliability assessment of steel elements exposed to fatigue

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krejsa Martin

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Fatigue crack damage depends on a number of stress range cycles. This is a time factor in the course of reliability for the entire designed service life. Three sizes are important for the characteristics of the propagation of fatigue cracks - initial size, detectable size and acceptable size. The theoretical model of fatigue crack progression can be based on a linear fracture mechanic. Depending on location of an initial crack, the crack may propagate in structural element e.g. from the edge or from the surface. When determining the required degree of reliability, it is possible to specify the time of the first inspection of the construction which will focus on the fatigue damage. Using a conditional probability and Bayesian approach, times for subsequent inspections can be determined. For probabilistic modelling of fatigue crack progression was used the original and new probabilistic method - the Direct Optimized Probabilistic Calculation (“DOProC”, which uses a purely numerical approach without any simulation techniques or approximation approach based on optimized numerical integration.

Reliability in maintenance and design of elastomer sealed closures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lake, W.H.

1978-01-01

The methods of reliability are considered for maintenance and design of elastomer sealed containment closures. Component reliability is used to establish a replacement schedule for system maintenance. Reliability data on elastomer seals is used to evaluate the common practice of annual replacement, and to calculate component reliability values for several typical shipment time periods. System reliability methods are used to examine the relative merits of typical closure designs. These include single component and redundant seal closure, with and without closure verification testing. The paper presents a general method of quantifying the merits of closure designs through the use of reliability analysis, which is a probabilistic technique. The reference list offers a general source of information in the field of reliability, and should offer the opportunity to extend the procedures discussed in this paper to other design safety applications

Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang

2004-01-01

Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...

Reliability Based Optimal Design of Vertical Breakwaters Modelled as a Series System Failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiani, E.; Burcharth, H. F.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1996-01-01

Reliability based design of monolithic vertical breakwaters is considered. Probabilistic models of important failure modes such as sliding and rupture failure in the rubble mound and the subsoil are described. Characterisation of the relevant stochastic parameters are presented, and relevant design...... variables are identified and an optimal system reliability formulation is presented. An illustrative example is given....

Survey of probabilistic methods in safety and risk assessment for nuclear power plant licensing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-04-01

After an overview about the goals and general methods of probabilistic approaches in nuclear safety the main features of probabilistic safety or risk assessment (PRA) methods are discussed. Mostly in practical applications not a full-fledged PRA is applied but rather various levels of analysis leading from unavailability assessment of systems over the more complex analysis of the probable core damage stages up to the assessment of the overall health effects on the total population from a certain practice. The various types of application are discussed in relation to their limitation and benefits for different stages of design or operation of nuclear power plants. This gives guidance for licensing staff to judge the usefulness of the various methods for their licensing decisions. Examples of the application of probabilistic methods in several countries are given. Two appendices on reliability analysis and on containment and consequence analysis provide some more details on these subjects. (author)

Fuzzy sets as extension of probabilistic models for evaluating human reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Przybylski, F.

1996-11-01

On the base of a survey of established quantification methodologies for evaluating human reliability, a new computerized methodology was developed in which a differential consideration of user uncertainties is made. In this quantification method FURTHER (FUzzy Sets Related To Human Error Rate Prediction), user uncertainties are quantified separately from model and data uncertainties. As tools fuzzy sets are applied which, however, stay hidden to the method's user. The user in the quantification process only chooses an action pattern, performance shaping factors and natural language expressions. The acknowledged method HEART (Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique) serves as foundation of the fuzzy set approach FURTHER. By means of this method, the selection of a basic task in connection with its basic error probability, the decision how correct the basic task's selection is, the selection of a peformance shaping factor, and the decision how correct the selection and how important the performance shaping factor is, were identified as aspects of fuzzification. This fuzzification is made on the base of data collection and information from literature as well as of the estimation by competent persons. To verify the ammount of additional information to be received by the usage of fuzzy sets, a benchmark session was accomplished. In this benchmark twelve actions were assessed by five test-persons. In case of the same degree of detail in the action modelling process, the bandwidths of the interpersonal evaluations decrease in FURTHER in comparison with HEART. The uncertainties of the single results could not be reduced up to now. The benchmark sessions conducted so far showed plausible results. A further testing of the fuzzy set approach by using better confirmed fuzzy sets can only be achieved in future practical application. Adequate procedures, however, are provided. (orig.) [de

A review of the progress with statistical models of passive component reliability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lydell, Bengt O. Y. [Sigma-Phase Inc., Vail (United States)

2017-03-15

During the past 25 years, in the context of probabilistic safety assessment, efforts have been directed towards establishment of comprehensive pipe failure event databases as a foundation for exploratory research to better understand how to effectively organize a piping reliability analysis task. The focused pipe failure database development efforts have progressed well with the development of piping reliability analysis frameworks that utilize the full body of service experience data, fracture mechanics analysis insights, expert elicitation results that are rolled into an integrated and risk-informed approach to the estimation of piping reliability parameters with full recognition of the embedded uncertainties. The discussion in this paper builds on a major collection of operating experience data (more than 11,000 pipe failure records) and the associated lessons learned from data analysis and data applications spanning three decades. The piping reliability analysis lessons learned have been obtained from the derivation of pipe leak and rupture frequencies for corrosion resistant piping in a raw water environment, loss-of-coolant-accident frequencies given degradation mitigation, high-energy pipe break analysis, moderate-energy pipe break analysis, and numerous plant-specific applications of a statistical piping reliability model framework. Conclusions are presented regarding the feasibility of determining and incorporating aging effects into probabilistic safety assessment models.

A Review of the Progress with Statistical Models of Passive Component Reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bengt O.Y. Lydell

2017-03-01

Full Text Available During the past 25 years, in the context of probabilistic safety assessment, efforts have been directed towards establishment of comprehensive pipe failure event databases as a foundation for exploratory research to better understand how to effectively organize a piping reliability analysis task. The focused pipe failure database development efforts have progressed well with the development of piping reliability analysis frameworks that utilize the full body of service experience data, fracture mechanics analysis insights, expert elicitation results that are rolled into an integrated and risk-informed approach to the estimation of piping reliability parameters with full recognition of the embedded uncertainties. The discussion in this paper builds on a major collection of operating experience data (more than 11,000 pipe failure records and the associated lessons learned from data analysis and data applications spanning three decades. The piping reliability analysis lessons learned have been obtained from the derivation of pipe leak and rupture frequencies for corrosion resistant piping in a raw water environment, loss-of-coolant-accident frequencies given degradation mitigation, high-energy pipe break analysis, moderate-energy pipe break analysis, and numerous plant-specific applications of a statistical piping reliability model framework. Conclusions are presented regarding the feasibility of determining and incorporating aging effects into probabilistic safety assessment models.

A review of the progress with statistical models of passive component reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lydell, Bengt O. Y.

2017-01-01

During the past 25 years, in the context of probabilistic safety assessment, efforts have been directed towards establishment of comprehensive pipe failure event databases as a foundation for exploratory research to better understand how to effectively organize a piping reliability analysis task. The focused pipe failure database development efforts have progressed well with the development of piping reliability analysis frameworks that utilize the full body of service experience data, fracture mechanics analysis insights, expert elicitation results that are rolled into an integrated and risk-informed approach to the estimation of piping reliability parameters with full recognition of the embedded uncertainties. The discussion in this paper builds on a major collection of operating experience data (more than 11,000 pipe failure records) and the associated lessons learned from data analysis and data applications spanning three decades. The piping reliability analysis lessons learned have been obtained from the derivation of pipe leak and rupture frequencies for corrosion resistant piping in a raw water environment, loss-of-coolant-accident frequencies given degradation mitigation, high-energy pipe break analysis, moderate-energy pipe break analysis, and numerous plant-specific applications of a statistical piping reliability model framework. Conclusions are presented regarding the feasibility of determining and incorporating aging effects into probabilistic safety assessment models

Integrating software reliability concepts into risk and reliability modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems used in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arndt, S. A.

2006-01-01

As software-based digital systems are becoming more and more common in all aspects of industrial process control, including the nuclear power industry, it is vital that the current state of the art in quality, reliability, and safety analysis be advanced to support the quantitative review of these systems. Several research groups throughout the world are working on the development and assessment of software-based digital system reliability methods and their applications in the nuclear power, aerospace, transportation, and defense industries. However, these groups are hampered by the fact that software experts and probabilistic safety assessment experts view reliability engineering very differently. This paper discusses the characteristics of a common vocabulary and modeling framework. (authors)

Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.

2003-01-01

Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...

Conditional probabilistic population forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang

2003-01-01

Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...

Students’ difficulties in probabilistic problem-solving

Science.gov (United States)

Arum, D. P.; Kusmayadi, T. A.; Pramudya, I.

2018-03-01

There are many errors can be identified when students solving mathematics problems, particularly in solving the probabilistic problem. This present study aims to investigate students’ difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It focuses on analyzing and describing students errors during solving the problem. This research used the qualitative method with case study strategy. The subjects in this research involve ten students of 9th grade that were selected by purposive sampling. Data in this research involve students’ probabilistic problem-solving result and recorded interview regarding students’ difficulties in solving the problem. Those data were analyzed descriptively using Miles and Huberman steps. The results show that students have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem and can be divided into three categories. First difficulties relate to students’ difficulties in understanding the probabilistic problem. Second, students’ difficulties in choosing and using appropriate strategies for solving the problem. Third, students’ difficulties with the computational process in solving the problem. Based on the result seems that students still have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It means that students have not able to use their knowledge and ability for responding probabilistic problem yet. Therefore, it is important for mathematics teachers to plan probabilistic learning which could optimize students probabilistic thinking ability.

Reliability Assessment of Wind Farm Electrical System Based on a Probability Transfer Technique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hejun Yang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The electrical system of a wind farm has a significant influence on the wind farm reliability and electrical energy yield. The disconnect switch installed in an electrical system cannot only improve the operating flexibility, but also enhance the reliability for a wind farm. Therefore, this paper develops a probabilistic transfer technique for integrating the electrical topology structure, the isolation operation of disconnect switch, and stochastic failure of electrical equipment into the reliability assessment of wind farm electrical system. Firstly, as the traditional two-state reliability model of electrical equipment cannot consider the isolation operation, so the paper develops a three-state reliability model to replace the two-state model for incorporating the isolation operation. In addition, a proportion apportion technique is presented to evaluate the state probability. Secondly, this paper develops a probabilistic transfer technique based on the thoughts that through transfer the unreliability of electrical system to the energy transmission interruption of wind turbine generators (WTGs. Finally, some novel indices for describing the reliability of wind farm electrical system are designed, and the variance coefficient of the designed indices is used as a convergence criterion to determine the termination of the assessment process. The proposed technique is applied to the reliability assessment of a wind farm with the different topologies. The simulation results show that the proposed techniques are effective in practical applications.

The validity and reliability of the Dutch Effort-Reward Imbalance Questionnaire

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hanson, E. K.; Schaufeli, W.; Vrijkotte, T.; Plomp, N. H.; Godaert, G. L.

2000-01-01

The reliability and validity of the Effort-Reward Imbalance Questionnaire were tested in 775 blue- and white-collar workers in the Netherlands. Cronbach's alpha revealed sufficient internal consistency of all subscales except Need for Control. With exploratory probabilistic scaling (Mokken)

Solution-verified reliability analysis and design of bistable MEMS using error estimation and adaptivity.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eldred, Michael Scott; Subia, Samuel Ramirez; Neckels, David; Hopkins, Matthew Morgan; Notz, Patrick K.; Adams, Brian M.; Carnes, Brian; Wittwer, Jonathan W.; Bichon, Barron J.; Copps, Kevin D.

2006-10-01

This report documents the results for an FY06 ASC Algorithms Level 2 milestone combining error estimation and adaptivity, uncertainty quantification, and probabilistic design capabilities applied to the analysis and design of bistable MEMS. Through the use of error estimation and adaptive mesh refinement, solution verification can be performed in an automated and parameter-adaptive manner. The resulting uncertainty analysis and probabilistic design studies are shown to be more accurate, efficient, reliable, and convenient.

A General Framework for Probabilistic Characterizing Formulae

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sack, Joshua; Zhang, Lijun

2012-01-01

Recently, a general framework on characteristic formulae was proposed by Aceto et al. It offers a simple theory that allows one to easily obtain characteristic formulae of many non-probabilistic behavioral relations. Our paper studies their techniques in a probabilistic setting. We provide...... a general method for determining characteristic formulae of behavioral relations for probabilistic automata using fixed-point probability logics. We consider such behavioral relations as simulations and bisimulations, probabilistic bisimulations, probabilistic weak simulations, and probabilistic forward...

Development of a simple method for classifying the degree of importance of components in nuclear power plants using probabilistic analysis technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimada, Yoshio; Miyazaki, Takamasa

2006-01-01

In order to analyze large amounts of trouble information of overseas nuclear power plants, it is necessary to select information that is significant in terms of both safety and reliability. In this research, a method of efficiently and simply classifying degrees of importance of components in terms of safety and reliability while paying attention to root-cause components appearing in the information was developed. Regarding safety, the reactor core damage frequency (CDF), which is used in the probabilistic analysis of a reactor, was used. Regarding reliability, the automatic plant trip probability (APTP), which is used in the probabilistic analysis of automatic reactor trips, was used. These two aspects were reflected in the development of criteria for classifying degrees of importance of components. By applying these criteria, a method of quantitatively and simply judging the significance of trouble information of overseas nuclear power plants was developed. (author)

A probabilistic Hu-Washizu variational principle

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Besterfield, G. H.

1987-01-01

A Probabilistic Hu-Washizu Variational Principle (PHWVP) for the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM) is presented. This formulation is developed for both linear and nonlinear elasticity. The PHWVP allows incorporation of the probabilistic distributions for the constitutive law, compatibility condition, equilibrium, domain and boundary conditions into the PFEM. Thus, a complete probabilistic analysis can be performed where all aspects of the problem are treated as random variables and/or fields. The Hu-Washizu variational formulation is available in many conventional finite element codes thereby enabling the straightforward inclusion of the probabilistic features into present codes.

Probabilistic risk analysis of Angra-1 reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spivak, R.C.; Collussi, I.; Silva, M.C. da; Onusic Junior, J.

1986-01-01

The first phase of probabilistic study for safety analysis and operational analysis of Angra-1 reactor is presented. The study objectives and uses are: to support decisions about safety problems; to identify operational and/or project failures; to amplify operator qualification tests to include accidents in addition to project base; to provide informations to be used in development and/or review of operation procedures in emergency, test and maintenance procedures; to obtain experience for data collection about abnormal accurences; utilization of study results for training operators; and training of evaluation and reliability techniques for the personnel of CNEN and FURNAS. (M.C.K.) [pt

Memristive Probabilistic Computing

KAUST Repository

Alahmadi, Hamzah

2017-10-01

In the era of Internet of Things and Big Data, unconventional techniques are rising to accommodate the large size of data and the resource constraints. New computing structures are advancing based on non-volatile memory technologies and different processing paradigms. Additionally, the intrinsic resiliency of current applications leads to the development of creative techniques in computations. In those applications, approximate computing provides a perfect fit to optimize the energy efficiency while compromising on the accuracy. In this work, we build probabilistic adders based on stochastic memristor. Probabilistic adders are analyzed with respect of the stochastic behavior of the underlying memristors. Multiple adder implementations are investigated and compared. The memristive probabilistic adder provides a different approach from the typical approximate CMOS adders. Furthermore, it allows for a high area saving and design exibility between the performance and power saving. To reach a similar performance level as approximate CMOS adders, the memristive adder achieves 60% of power saving. An image-compression application is investigated using the memristive probabilistic adders with the performance and the energy trade-off.

Reliability centred maintenance of nuclear power plant facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kovacs, Zoltan; Novakova, Helena; Hlavac, Pavol; Janicek, Frantisek

2011-01-01

A method for the optimization of preventive maintenance nuclear power plant equipment, i.e. reliability centred maintenance, is described. The method enables procedures and procedure schedules to be defined such as allow the maintenance cost to be minimized without compromising operational safety or reliability. Also, combinations of facilities which remain available and ensure reliable operation of the reactor unit during the maintenance of other pieces of equipment are identified. The condition-based maintenance concept is used in this process, thereby preventing unnecessary operator interventions into the equipment, which are often associated with human errors. Where probabilistic safety assessment is available, the most important structures, systems and components with the highest maintenance priority can be identified. (orig.)

Probabilistic analyses of failure in reactor coolant piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holman, G.S.

1984-01-01

LLNL is performing probabilistic reliability analyses of PWR and BWR reactor coolant piping for the NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. Specifically, LLNL is estimating the probability of a double-ended guillotine break (DEGB) in the reactor coolant loop piping in PWR plants, and in the main stream, feedwater, and recirculation piping of BWR plants. In estimating the probability of DEGB, LLNL considers two causes of pipe break: pipe fracture due to the growth of cracks at welded joints (direct DEGB), and pipe rupture indirectly caused by the seismically-induced failure of critical supports or equipment (indirect DEGB)

Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haenni, R.; Romeijn, J.-W.; Wheeler, G.; Williamson, J.

2009-01-01

While in principle probabilistic logics might be applied to solve a range of problems, in practice they are rarely applied at present. This is perhaps because they seem disparate, complicated, and computationally intractable. However, we shall argue in this programmatic paper that several approaches

PROBABILISTIC FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS OF A HEAVY DUTY RADIATOR UNDER INTERNAL PRESSURE LOADING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ROBIN ROY P.

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Engine cooling is vital in keeping the engine at most efficient temperature for the different vehicle speed and operating road conditions. Radiator is one of the key components in the heavy duty engine cooling system. Heavy duty radiator is subjected to various kinds of loading such as pressure, thermal, vibration, internal erosion, external corrosion, creep. Pressure cycle durability is one of the most important characteristic in the design of heavy duty radiator. Current design methodologies involve design of heavy duty radiator using the nominal finite element approach which does not take into account of the variations occurring in the geometry, material and boundary condition, leading to over conservative and uneconomical designs of radiator system. A new approach is presented in the paper to integrate traditional linear finite element method and probabilistic approach to design a heavy duty radiator by including the uncertainty in the computational model. As a first step, nominal run is performed with input design variables and desired responses are extracted. A probabilistic finite elementanalysis is performed to identify the robust designs and validated for reliability. Probabilistic finite element includes the uncertainty of the material thickness, dimensional and geometrical variation. Gaussian distribution is employed to define the random variation and uncertainty. Monte Carlo method is used to generate the random design points.Output response distributions of the random design points are post-processed using different statistical and probability technique to find the robust design. The above approach of systematic virtual modelling and analysis of the data helps to find efficient and reliable robust design.

Reliability modeling of Clinch River breeder reactor electrical shutdown systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schatz, R.A.; Duetsch, K.L.

1974-01-01

The initial simulation of the probabilistic properties of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant (CRBRP) electrical shutdown systems is described. A model of the reliability (and availability) of the systems is presented utilizing Success State and continuous-time, discrete state Markov modeling techniques as significant elements of an overall reliability assessment process capable of demonstrating the achievement of program goals. This model is examined for its sensitivity to safe/unsafe failure rates, sybsystem redundant configurations, test and repair intervals, monitoring by reactor operators; and the control exercised over system reliability by design modifications and the selection of system operating characteristics. (U.S.)

Probabilistic finite elements for fatigue and fracture analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Belytschko, Ted; Liu, Wing Kam

1993-04-01

An overview of the probabilistic finite element method (PFEM) developed by the authors and their colleagues in recent years is presented. The primary focus is placed on the development of PFEM for both structural mechanics problems and fracture mechanics problems. The perturbation techniques are used as major tools for the analytical derivation. The following topics are covered: (1) representation and discretization of random fields; (2) development of PFEM for the general linear transient problem and nonlinear elasticity using Hu-Washizu variational principle; (3) computational aspects; (4) discussions of the application of PFEM to the reliability analysis of both brittle fracture and fatigue; and (5) a stochastic computational tool based on stochastic boundary element (SBEM). Results are obtained for the reliability index and corresponding probability of failure for: (1) fatigue crack growth; (2) defect geometry; (3) fatigue parameters; and (4) applied loads. These results show that initial defect is a critical parameter.

Advanced neutron source reactor probabilistic flow blockage assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramsey, C.T.

1995-08-01

The Phase I Level I Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the conceptual design of the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) Reactor identified core flow blockage as the most likely internal event leading to fuel damage. The flow blockage event frequency used in the original ANS PRA was based primarily on the flow blockage work done for the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) PRA. This report examines potential flow blockage scenarios and calculates an estimate of the likelihood of debris-induced fuel damage. The bulk of the report is based specifically on the conceptual design of ANS with a 93%-enriched, two-element core; insights to the impact of the proposed three-element core are examined in Sect. 5. In addition to providing a probability (uncertainty) distribution for the likelihood of core flow blockage, this ongoing effort will serve to indicate potential areas of concern to be focused on in the preliminary design for elimination or mitigation. It will also serve as a loose-parts management tool

Residual Heat Removal System qualitative probabilistic safety analysis before and after auto closure interlock removal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mikulicic, V.; Simic, Z.

1992-01-01

The analysis evaluates the consequences of the removal of the auto closure interlock (ACI) on the Residual Heat Removal System (RHRS) suction/isolation valves at the nuclear power plant. The deletion of the RHRS ACI is in part based on a probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) which justifies the removal based on a criterion of increased availability and reliability. Three different areas to be examined in PSA: the likelihood of an interfacing system LOCA; RHRS availability and reliability; and low temperature overpressurization control. The paper emphasizes particularly the RHRS unavailability and reliability evaluation utilizing the current control circuitry configuration and then with the proposed modification to the control circuitry. (author)

Procedure for conducting a human-reliability analysis for nuclear power plants. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, B.J.; Swain, A.D.

1983-05-01

This document describes in detail a procedure to be followed in conducting a human reliability analysis as part of a probabilistic risk assessment when such an analysis is performed according to the methods described in NUREG/CR-1278, Handbook for Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications. An overview of the procedure describing the major elements of a human reliability analysis is presented along with a detailed description of each element and an example of an actual analysis. An appendix consists of some sample human reliability analysis problems for further study

Seismic reliability assessment methodology for CANDU concrete containment structures-phase 11

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, H.P.

1996-07-01

This study was undertaken to verify a set of load factors for reliability-based seismic evaluation of CANDU containment structures in Eastern Canada. Here, the new, site-specific, results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (response spectral velocity) were applied. It was found that the previously recommended load factors are relatively insensitive to the new seismic hazard information, and are adequate for a reliability-based seismic evaluation process. (author). 4 refs., 5 tabs., 9 figs

Suggestions for an improved HRA method for use in Probabilistic Safety Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parry, Gareth W.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses why an improved Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) approach for use in Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) is needed, and proposes a set of requirements on the improved HRA method. The constraints imposed by the need to embed the approach into the PSA methodology are discussed. One approach to laying the foundation for an improved method, using models from the cognitive psychology and behavioral science disciplines, is outlined

Probabilistic programmable quantum processors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buzek, V.; Ziman, M.; Hillery, M.

2004-01-01

We analyze how to improve performance of probabilistic programmable quantum processors. We show how the probability of success of the probabilistic processor can be enhanced by using the processor in loops. In addition, we show that an arbitrary SU(2) transformations of qubits can be encoded in program state of a universal programmable probabilistic quantum processor. The probability of success of this processor can be enhanced by a systematic correction of errors via conditional loops. Finally, we show that all our results can be generalized also for qudits. (Abstract Copyright [2004], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Development of probabilistic fatigue curve for asphalt concrete based on viscoelastic continuum damage mechanics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Himanshu Sharma

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Due to its roots in fundamental thermodynamic framework, continuum damage approach is popular for modeling asphalt concrete behavior. Currently used continuum damage models use mixture averaged values for model parameters and assume deterministic damage process. On the other hand, significant scatter is found in fatigue data generated even under extremely controlled laboratory testing conditions. Thus, currently used continuum damage models fail to account the scatter observed in fatigue data. This paper illustrates a novel approach for probabilistic fatigue life prediction based on viscoelastic continuum damage approach. Several specimens were tested for their viscoelastic properties and damage properties under uniaxial mode of loading. The data thus generated were analyzed using viscoelastic continuum damage mechanics principles to predict fatigue life. Weibull (2 parameter, 3 parameter and lognormal distributions were fit to fatigue life predicted using viscoelastic continuum damage approach. It was observed that fatigue damage could be best-described using Weibull distribution when compared to lognormal distribution. Due to its flexibility, 3-parameter Weibull distribution was found to fit better than 2-parameter Weibull distribution. Further, significant differences were found between probabilistic fatigue curves developed in this research and traditional deterministic fatigue curve. The proposed methodology combines advantages of continuum damage mechanics as well as probabilistic approaches. These probabilistic fatigue curves can be conveniently used for reliability based pavement design. Keywords: Probabilistic fatigue curve, Continuum damage mechanics, Weibull distribution, Lognormal distribution

Nondestructive examination (NDE) Reliability for Inservice Inspection of Light Water Reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doctor, S.R.; Good, M.S.; Heasler, P.G.; Hockey, R.L.; Simonen, F.A.; Spanner, J.C.; Taylor, T.T.; Vo, T.V.

1992-07-01

The Evaluation and Improvement of NDE reliability for Inservice Inspection of Light Water Reactors (NDE Reliability) Program at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory was established by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to determine the reliability of current inservice inspection (ISI) techniques and to develop recommendations that will ensure a suitably high inspection reliability. The objectives of this program include determining the reliability of ISI performed on the primary systems of commercial light-water reactors (LWRs); using probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis to determine the impact of NDE unreliability on system safety; and evaluating reliability improvements that can be achieved with improved and advanced technology. A final objective is to formulate recommended revisions to the Regulatory and ASME Code requirements, based on material properties, service conditions, and NDE uncertainties

Aeroelastic/Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty and Reliability of Advanced Aerospace Vehicles in Flight and Ground Operations, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ASSURE - Aeroelastic / Aeroservoelastic (AE/ASE) Uncertainty and Reliability Engineering capability - is a set of probabilistic computer programs for isolating...

Reliability evaluation of a natural circulation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jafari, Jalil; D'Auria, Francesco; Kazeminejad, Hossein; Davilu, Hadi

2003-01-01

This paper discusses a reliability study performed with reference to a passive thermohydraulic natural circulation (NC) system, named TTL-1. A methodology based on probabilistic techniques has been applied with the main purpose to optimize the system design. The obtained results have been adopted to estimate the thermal-hydraulic reliability (TH-R) of the same system. A total of 29 relevant parameters (including nominal values and plausible ranges of variations) affecting the design and the NC performance of the TTL-1 loop are identified and a probability of occurrence is assigned for each value based on expert judgment. Following procedures established for the uncertainty evaluation of thermal-hydraulic system codes results, 137 system configurations have been selected and each configuration has been analyzed via the Relap5 best-estimate code. The reference system configuration and the failure criteria derived from the 'mission' of the passive system are adopted for the evaluation of the system TH-R. Four different definitions of a less-than-unity 'reliability-values' (where unity represents the maximum achievable reliability) are proposed for the performance of the selected passive system. This is normally considered fully reliable, i.e. reliability-value equal one, in typical Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) applications in nuclear reactor safety. The two 'point' TH-R values for the considered NC system were found equal to 0.70 and 0.85, i.e. values comparable with the reliability of a pump installed in an 'equivalent' forced circulation (active) system having the same 'mission'. The design optimization study was completed by a regression analysis addressing the output of the 137 calculations: heat losses, undetected leakage, loop length, riser diameter, and equivalent diameter of the test section have been found as the most important parameters bringing to the optimal system design and affecting the TH-R. As added values for this work, the comparison has

Agent autonomy approach to probabilistic physics-of-failure modeling of complex dynamic systems with interacting failure mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Gromek, Katherine Emily

A novel computational and inference framework of the physics-of-failure (PoF) reliability modeling for complex dynamic systems has been established in this research. The PoF-based reliability models are used to perform a real time simulation of system failure processes, so that the system level reliability modeling would constitute inferences from checking the status of component level reliability at any given time. The "agent autonomy" concept is applied as a solution method for the system-level probabilistic PoF-based (i.e. PPoF-based) modeling. This concept originated from artificial intelligence (AI) as a leading intelligent computational inference in modeling of multi agents systems (MAS). The concept of agent autonomy in the context of reliability modeling was first proposed by M. Azarkhail [1], where a fundamentally new idea of system representation by autonomous intelligent agents for the purpose of reliability modeling was introduced. Contribution of the current work lies in the further development of the agent anatomy concept, particularly the refined agent classification within the scope of the PoF-based system reliability modeling, new approaches to the learning and the autonomy properties of the intelligent agents, and modeling interacting failure mechanisms within the dynamic engineering system. The autonomous property of intelligent agents is defined as agent's ability to self-activate, deactivate or completely redefine their role in the analysis. This property of agents and the ability to model interacting failure mechanisms of the system elements makes the agent autonomy fundamentally different from all existing methods of probabilistic PoF-based reliability modeling. 1. Azarkhail, M., "Agent Autonomy Approach to Physics-Based Reliability Modeling of Structures and Mechanical Systems", PhD thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, 2007.

Photovoltaic and Wind Turbine Integration Applying Cuckoo Search for Probabilistic Reliable Optimal Placement

OpenAIRE

R. A. Swief; T. S. Abdel-Salam; Noha H. El-Amary

2018-01-01

This paper presents an efficient Cuckoo Search Optimization technique to improve the reliability of electrical power systems. Various reliability objective indices such as Energy Not Supplied, System Average Interruption Frequency Index, System Average Interruption, and Duration Index are the main indices indicating reliability. The Cuckoo Search Optimization (CSO) technique is applied to optimally place the protection devices, install the distributed generators, and to determine the size of ...

Probabilistic Modelling of Timber Material Properties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber; Köhler, Jochen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2001-01-01

The probabilistic modeling of timber material characteristics is considered with special emphasis to the modeling of the effect of different quality control and selection procedures used as means for grading of timber in the production line. It is shown how statistical models may be established...... on the basis of the same type of information which is normally collected as a part of the quality control procedures and furthermore, how the efficiency of different control procedures may be compared. The tail behavior of the probability distributions of timber material characteristics play an important role...... such that they may readily be applied in structural reliability analysis and the format appears to be appropriate for codification purposes of quality control and selection for grading procedures...

Multi-Disciplinary System Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song

1997-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code developed under the leadership of NASA Lewis Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multi-disciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

PROBABILISTIC RELATIONAL MODELS OF COMPLETE IL-SEMIRINGS

OpenAIRE

Tsumagari, Norihiro

2012-01-01

This paper studies basic properties of probabilistic multirelations which are generalized the semantic domain of probabilistic systems and then provides two probabilistic models of complete IL-semirings using probabilistic multirelations. Also it is shown that these models need not be models of complete idempotentsemirings.

Online probabilistic learning with an ensemble of forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Thorey, Jean; Mallet, Vivien; Chaussin, Christophe

2016-04-01

Our objective is to produce a calibrated weighted ensemble to forecast a univariate time series. In addition to a meteorological ensemble of forecasts, we rely on observations or analyses of the target variable. The celebrated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the probabilistic forecasts. However applying the CRPS on weighted empirical distribution functions (deriving from the weighted ensemble) may introduce a bias because of which minimizing the CRPS does not produce the optimal weights. Thus we propose an unbiased version of the CRPS which relies on clusters of members and is strictly proper. We adapt online learning methods for the minimization of the CRPS. These methods generate the weights associated to the members in the forecasted empirical distribution function. The weights are updated before each forecast step using only past observations and forecasts. Our learning algorithms provide the theoretical guarantee that, in the long run, the CRPS of the weighted forecasts is at least as good as the CRPS of any weighted ensemble with weights constant in time. In particular, the performance of our forecast is better than that of any subset ensemble with uniform weights. A noteworthy advantage of our algorithm is that it does not require any assumption on the distributions of the observations and forecasts, both for the application and for the theoretical guarantee to hold. As application example on meteorological forecasts for photovoltaic production integration, we show that our algorithm generates a calibrated probabilistic forecast, with significant performance improvements on probabilistic diagnostic tools (the CRPS, the reliability diagram and the rank histogram).

Probabilistic safety analysis vs probabilistic fracture mechanics -relation and necessary merging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nilsson, Fred

1997-01-01

A comparison is made between some general features of probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in its standard form. We conclude that: Result from PSA is a numerically expressed level of confidence in the system based on the state of current knowledge. It is thus not any objective measure of risk. It is important to carefully define the precise nature of the probabilistic statement and relate it to a well defined situation. Standardisation of PFM methods is necessary. PFM seems to be the only way to obtain estimates of the pipe break probability. Service statistics are of doubtful value because of scarcity of data and statistical inhomogeneity. Collection of service data should be directed towards the occurrence of growing cracks

Probabilistic safety assessment of French 900 and 1,300 MWe nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brisbois, J.; Lanore, J.M.

1991-08-01

Although reactor design is mainly governed by deterministic principles in France, the probabilistic approach has been considered an important aid to safety analysis since the early seventies. Various partial probabilistic studies have been performed by Electricite de France, by IPSN and by Framatome, for various types of reactor. In particular, these studies have made it possible to assess the reliability and availability of nuclear power plants safety systems as well as the probability of accident scenarios and have helped to define technical specifications (especially, allowed operating times in the event of a partial unavailability of safety systems). Simultaneously, evaluation methods and corresponding software have been widely developed. Besides. EDF has implemented the Systeme de Recueil de Donnees de Fiabilite - SRDF (Reliability Data Collection System) which allows follow-up of equipment behaviour on all the operating units, and has led to a particularly representative data base. In 1982 the decision was taken at IPSN to carry out a complete PSA for a standard reactor of the 900 MWe type, and in 1986 EDF launched an equivalent study on a 1,300 MWe reactor, taking Unit 3 Paluel as reference. These PSAs were terminated in the course of the first quarter of 1990

Probabilistic safety assessment of French 900 and 1,300 MWe nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brisbois, J.; Lanore, J.M.

1991-01-01

Although reactor design is mainly governed by deterministic principles in France, the probabilistic approach has been considered an important aid to safety analysis since the early seventies. Various partial probabilistic studies have been performed by Electricite de France, by IPSN and by Framatome, for various types of reactor. In particular, these studies have made it possible to assess the reliability and availability of nuclear power plants safety systems as well as the probability of accident scenarios and have helped to define technical specifications (especially, allowed operating times in the event of a partial unavailability of safety systems). Simultaneously, evaluation methods and corresponding software have been widely developed. Besides. EDF has implemented the Systeme de Recueil de Donnees de Fiabilite - SRDF (Reliability Data Collection System) which allows follow-up of equipment behaviour on all the operating units, and has led to a particularly representative data base. In 1982 the decision was taken at IPSN to carry out a complete PSA for a standard reactor of the 900 MWe type, and in 1986 EDF launched an equivalent study on a 1,300 MWe reactor, taking Unit 3 Paluel as reference. These PSAs were terminated in the course of the first quarter of 1990. (author)

Predicting risk and human reliability: a new approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, R.; Ha, T.-S.

2009-01-01

Learning from experience describes human reliability and skill acquisition, and the resulting theory has been validated by comparison against millions of outcome data from multiple industries and technologies worldwide. The resulting predictions were used to benchmark the classic first generation human reliability methods adopted in probabilistic risk assessments. The learning rate, probabilities and response times are also consistent with the existing psychological models for human learning and error correction. The new approach also implies a finite lower bound probability that is not predicted by empirical statistical distributions that ignore the known and fundamental learning effects. (author)

Concurrent Probabilistic Simulation of High Temperature Composite Structural Response

Science.gov (United States)

Abdi, Frank

1996-01-01

A computational structural/material analysis and design tool which would meet industry's future demand for expedience and reduced cost is presented. This unique software 'GENOA' is dedicated to parallel and high speed analysis to perform probabilistic evaluation of high temperature composite response of aerospace systems. The development is based on detailed integration and modification of diverse fields of specialized analysis techniques and mathematical models to combine their latest innovative capabilities into a commercially viable software package. The technique is specifically designed to exploit the availability of processors to perform computationally intense probabilistic analysis assessing uncertainties in structural reliability analysis and composite micromechanics. The primary objectives which were achieved in performing the development were: (1) Utilization of the power of parallel processing and static/dynamic load balancing optimization to make the complex simulation of structure, material and processing of high temperature composite affordable; (2) Computational integration and synchronization of probabilistic mathematics, structural/material mechanics and parallel computing; (3) Implementation of an innovative multi-level domain decomposition technique to identify the inherent parallelism, and increasing convergence rates through high- and low-level processor assignment; (4) Creating the framework for Portable Paralleled architecture for the machine independent Multi Instruction Multi Data, (MIMD), Single Instruction Multi Data (SIMD), hybrid and distributed workstation type of computers; and (5) Market evaluation. The results of Phase-2 effort provides a good basis for continuation and warrants Phase-3 government, and industry partnership.

Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons.

Science.gov (United States)

Sironi, Emanuele; Gallidabino, Matteo; Weyermann, Céline; Taroni, Franco

2016-03-01

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

The Diagnostic Challenge Competition: Probabilistic Techniques for Fault Diagnosis in Electrical Power Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Ricks, Brian W.; Mengshoel, Ole J.

2009-01-01

Reliable systems health management is an important research area of NASA. A health management system that can accurately and quickly diagnose faults in various on-board systems of a vehicle will play a key role in the success of current and future NASA missions. We introduce in this paper the ProDiagnose algorithm, a diagnostic algorithm that uses a probabilistic approach, accomplished with Bayesian Network models compiled to Arithmetic Circuits, to diagnose these systems. We describe the ProDiagnose algorithm, how it works, and the probabilistic models involved. We show by experimentation on two Electrical Power Systems based on the ADAPT testbed, used in the Diagnostic Challenge Competition (DX 09), that ProDiagnose can produce results with over 96% accuracy and less than 1 second mean diagnostic time.

Improved detection of chemical substances from colorimetric sensor data using probabilistic machine learning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mølgaard, Lasse Lohilahti; Buus, Ole Thomsen; Larsen, Jan

2017-01-01

We present a data-driven machine learning approach to detect drug- and explosives-precursors using colorimetric sensor technology for air-sampling. The sensing technology has been developed in the context of the CRIM-TRACK project. At present a fully- integrated portable prototype for air sampling...... of the highly multi-variate data produced from the colorimetric chip a number of machine learning techniques are employed to provide reliable classification of target analytes from confounders found in the air streams. We demonstrate that a data-driven machine learning method using dimensionality reduction...... in combination with a probabilistic classifier makes it possible to produce informative features and a high detection rate of analytes. Furthermore, the probabilistic machine learning approach provides a means of automatically identifying unreliable measurements that could produce false predictions...

On synchronous parallel computations with independent probabilistic choice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reif, J.H.

1984-01-01

This paper introduces probabilistic choice to synchronous parallel machine models; in particular parallel RAMs. The power of probabilistic choice in parallel computations is illustrate by parallelizing some known probabilistic sequential algorithms. The authors characterize the computational complexity of time, space, and processor bounded probabilistic parallel RAMs in terms of the computational complexity of probabilistic sequential RAMs. They show that parallelism uniformly speeds up time bounded probabilistic sequential RAM computations by nearly a quadratic factor. They also show that probabilistic choice can be eliminated from parallel computations by introducing nonuniformity

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Theory Development

Science.gov (United States)

Burnside, O. H.

1985-01-01

The objective of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project is to develop analysis techniques and computer programs for predicting the probabilistic response of critical structural components for current and future space propulsion systems. This technology will play a central role in establishing system performance and durability. The first year's technical activity is concentrating on probabilistic finite element formulation strategy and code development. Work is also in progress to survey critical materials and space shuttle mian engine components. The probabilistic finite element computer program NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) is being developed. The final probabilistic code will have, in the general case, the capability of performing nonlinear dynamic of stochastic structures. It is the goal of the approximate methods effort to increase problem solving efficiency relative to finite element methods by using energy methods to generate trial solutions which satisfy the structural boundary conditions. These approximate methods will be less computer intensive relative to the finite element approach.

The Accelerator Reliability Forum

CERN Document Server

Lüdeke, Andreas; Giachino, R

2014-01-01

A high reliability is a very important goal for most particle accelerators. The biennial Accelerator Reliability Workshop covers topics related to the design and operation of particle accelerators with a high reliability. In order to optimize the over-all reliability of an accelerator one needs to gather information on the reliability of many different subsystems. While a biennial workshop can serve as a platform for the exchange of such information, the authors aimed to provide a further channel to allow for a more timely communication: the Particle Accelerator Reliability Forum [1]. This contribution will describe the forum and advertise it’s usage in the community.

14th International Probabilistic Workshop

CERN Document Server

Taerwe, Luc; Proske, Dirk

2017-01-01

This book presents the proceedings of the 14th International Probabilistic Workshop that was held in Ghent, Belgium in December 2016. Probabilistic methods are currently of crucial importance for research and developments in the field of engineering, which face challenges presented by new materials and technologies and rapidly changing societal needs and values. Contemporary needs related to, for example, performance-based design, service-life design, life-cycle analysis, product optimization, assessment of existing structures and structural robustness give rise to new developments as well as accurate and practically applicable probabilistic and statistical engineering methods to support these developments. These proceedings are a valuable resource for anyone interested in contemporary developments in the field of probabilistic engineering applications.

Probabilistic evaluations for CANTUP computer code analysis improvement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Florea, S.; Pavelescu, M.

2004-01-01

Structural analysis with finite element method is today an usual way to evaluate and predict the behavior of structural assemblies subject to hard conditions in order to ensure their safety and reliability during their operation. A CANDU 600 fuel channel is an example of an assembly working in hard conditions, in which, except the corrosive and thermal aggression, long time irradiation, with implicit consequences on material properties evolution, interferes. That leads inevitably to material time-dependent properties scattering, their dynamic evolution being subject to a great degree of uncertainness. These are the reasons for developing, in association with deterministic evaluations with computer codes, the probabilistic and statistical methods in order to predict the structural component response. This work initiates the possibility to extend the deterministic thermomechanical evaluation on fuel channel components to probabilistic structural mechanics approach starting with deterministic analysis performed with CANTUP computer code which is a code developed to predict the long term mechanical behavior of the pressure tube - calandria tube assembly. To this purpose the structure of deterministic calculus CANTUP computer code has been reviewed. The code has been adapted from LAHEY 77 platform to Microsoft Developer Studio - Fortran Power Station platform. In order to perform probabilistic evaluations, it was added a part to the deterministic code which, using a subroutine from IMSL library from Microsoft Developer Studio - Fortran Power Station platform, generates pseudo-random values of a specified value. It was simulated a normal distribution around the deterministic value and 5% standard deviation for Young modulus material property in order to verify the statistical calculus of the creep behavior. The tube deflection and effective stresses were the properties subject to probabilistic evaluation. All the values of these properties obtained for all the values for

Reliability-based assessment of polyethylene pipe creep lifetime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khelif, Rabia; Chateauneuf, Alaa; Chaoui, Kamel

2007-01-01

Lifetime management of underground pipelines is mandatory for safe hydrocarbon transmission and distribution systems. The use of high-density polyethylene tubes subjected to internal pressure, external loading and environmental variations requires a reliability study in order to define the service limits and the optimal operating conditions. In service, the time-dependent phenomena, especially creep, take place during the pipe lifetime, leading to significant strength reduction. In this work, the reliability-based assessment of pipe lifetime models is carried out, in order to propose a probabilistic methodology for lifetime model selection and to determine the pipe safety levels as well as the most important parameters for pipeline reliability. This study is enhanced by parametric analysis on pipe configuration, gas pressure and operating temperature

Reliability-based assessment of polyethylene pipe creep lifetime

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khelif, Rabia [LaMI-UBP and IFMA, Campus de Clermont-Fd, Les Cezeaux, BP 265, 63175 Aubiere Cedex (France); LR3MI, Departement de Genie Mecanique, Universite Badji Mokhtar, BP 12, Annaba 23000 (Algeria)], E-mail: rabia.khelif@ifma.fr; Chateauneuf, Alaa [LGC-University Blaise Pascal, Campus des Cezeaux, BP 206, 63174 Aubiere Cedex (France)], E-mail: alaa.chateauneuf@polytech.univ-bpclermont.fr; Chaoui, Kamel [LR3MI, Departement de Genie Mecanique, Universite Badji Mokhtar, BP 12, Annaba 23000 (Algeria)], E-mail: chaoui@univ-annaba.org

2007-12-15

Lifetime management of underground pipelines is mandatory for safe hydrocarbon transmission and distribution systems. The use of high-density polyethylene tubes subjected to internal pressure, external loading and environmental variations requires a reliability study in order to define the service limits and the optimal operating conditions. In service, the time-dependent phenomena, especially creep, take place during the pipe lifetime, leading to significant strength reduction. In this work, the reliability-based assessment of pipe lifetime models is carried out, in order to propose a probabilistic methodology for lifetime model selection and to determine the pipe safety levels as well as the most important parameters for pipeline reliability. This study is enhanced by parametric analysis on pipe configuration, gas pressure and operating temperature.

Probabilistic distributions of pin gaps within a wire-spaced fuel subassembly and sensitivities of the related uncertainties to pin gap

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sakai, K.; Hishida, H.

1978-01-01

Probabilistic fuel pin gap distributions within a wire-spaced fuel subassembly and sensitivities of the related uncertainties to fuel pin gaps are discussed. The analyses consist mainly of expressing a local fuel pin gap in terms of sensitivity functions of the related uncertainties and calculating the corresponding probabilistic distribution through taking all the possible combinations of the distribution of uncertainties. The results of illustrative calculations show that with the reliability level of 0.9987, the maximum deviation of the pin gap at the cladding hot spot of a center fuel subassembly is 8.05% from its nominal value and the corresponding probabilistic pin gap distribution is shifted to the narrower side due to the external confinement of a pin bundle with a wrapper tube. (Auth.)

Application of probabilistic fracture mechanics to reactor pressure vessel safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Venturini, V.; Pitner, P.

1995-06-01

Among all the components of a PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) nuclear power plant, the reactor vessel is of major importance for safety. The integrity of this structure must be guaranteed in all circumstances, even in the case of the most severe accidents, and its mechanical state can be decisive for the lifetime of the plant. The brittle rupture would be the most important of all potential hazards if the irradiation effects were not consistent with predictions. The interest of having a reliable and precise method of evaluating the available safety margins and the integrity of this component led Electricite de France (EDF) to carry out a probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis. The probabilistic model developed by integration of the uncertainties in the usual fracture mechanics equations is presented. A special focus is made on the problem of coupling thermo-mechanical finite element calculations and reliability analysis. The use of a finite element code can be associated with prohibitive computation times when it is invoked numerous times during simulations sequences or complex iterative procedures. The response surface method is used. It provides an approximation of the response from a reduced number of original data. The global approach is illustrated on an example corresponding to a specific accidental transient. A validation of the obtained results is also carried out through the comparison with an equivalent model without coupling. (author)

Use of probabilistic relational model (PRM) for dependability analysis of complex systems

OpenAIRE

Medina-Oliva , Gabriela; Weber , Philippe; Levrat , Eric; Iung , Benoît

2010-01-01

International audience; This paper proposes a methodology to develop a aided decision-making tool for assessing the dependability and performances (i.e. reliability) of an industrial system. This tool is built on a model based on a new formalism, called the probabilistic relational model (PRM) which is adapted to deal with large and complex systems. The model is formalized from functional, dysfunctional and informational studies of the technical industrial systems. An application of this meth...

Deterministic and probabilistic approach to determine seismic risk of nuclear power plants; a practical example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soriano Pena, A.; Lopez Arroyo, A.; Roesset, J.M.

1976-01-01

The probabilistic and deterministic approaches for calculating the seismic risk of nuclear power plants are both applied to a particular case in Southern Spain. The results obtained by both methods, when varying the input data, are presented and some conclusions drawn in relation to the applicability of the methods, their reliability and their sensitivity to change

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): A Practical and Cost Effective Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Lydia L.; Ingegneri, Antonino J.; Djam, Melody

2006-01-01

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is the first mission of the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP), a space exploration venture to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The LRO mission includes spacecraft developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and seven instruments built by GSFC, Russia, and contractors across the nation. LRO is defined as a measurement mission, not a science mission. It emphasizes the overall objectives of obtaining data to facilitate returning mankind safely to the Moon in preparation for an eventual manned mission to Mars. As the first mission in response to the President's commitment of the journey of exploring the solar system and beyond: returning to the Moon in the next decade, then venturing further into the solar system, ultimately sending humans to Mars and beyond, LRO has high-visibility to the public but limited resources and a tight schedule. This paper demonstrates how NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission project office incorporated reliability analyses in assessing risks and performing design tradeoffs to ensure mission success. Risk assessment is performed using NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8705.5 - Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects to formulate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). As required, a limited scope PRA is being performed for the LRO project. The PRA is used to optimize the mission design within mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. The technique that LRO project office uses to perform PRA relies on the application of a component failure database to quantify the potential mission success risks. To ensure mission success in an efficient manner, low cost and tight schedule, the traditional reliability analyses, such as reliability predictions, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), are used to perform PRA for the large system of LRO with more than 14,000 piece parts and over 120 purchased or contractor

Some probabilistic aspects of fracture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, J.M.

1982-01-01

Some probabilistic aspects of fracture in structural and mechanical components are examined. The principles of fracture mechanics, material quality and inspection uncertainty are formulated into a conceptual and analytical framework for prediction of failure probability. The role of probabilistic fracture mechanics in a more global context of risk and optimization of decisions is illustrated. An example, where Monte Carlo simulation was used to implement a probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis, is discussed. (orig.)

On the estimation of the steam generator maintenance efficiency by the means of probabilistic fracture mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cizelj, L.

1994-10-01

In this report, an original probabilistic model aimed to assess the efficiency of particular maintenance strategy in terms of tube failure probability is proposed. The model concentrates on axial through wall cracks in the residual stress dominated tube expansion transition zone. It is based on the recent developments in probabilistic fracture mechanics and accounts for scatter in material, geometry and crack propagation data. Special attention has been paid to model the uncertainties connected to non-destructive examination technique (e.g., measurement errors, non-detection probability). First and second order reliability methods (FORM and SORM) have been implemented to calculate the failure probabilities. This is the first time that those methods are applied to the reliability analysis of components containing stress-corrosion cracks. In order to predict the time development of the tube failure probabilities, an original linear elastic fracture mechanics based crack propagation model has been developed. It accounts for the residual and operating stresses together. Also, the model accounts for scatter in residual and operational stresses due to the random variations in tube geometry and material data. Due to the lack of reliable crack velocity vs load data, the non-destructive examination records of the crack propagation have been employed to estimate the velocities at the crack tips. (orig./GL) [de

Assessment of modern methods of human factor reliability analysis in PSA studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holy, J.

2001-12-01

The report is structured as follows: Classical terms and objects (Probabilistic safety assessment as a framework for human reliability assessment; Human failure within the PSA model; Basic types of operator failure modelled in a PSA study and analyzed by HRA methods; Qualitative analysis of human reliability; Quantitative analysis of human reliability used; Process of analysis of nuclear reactor operator reliability in a PSA study); New terms and objects (Analysis of dependences; Errors of omission; Errors of commission; Error forcing context); and Overview and brief assessment of human reliability analysis (Basic characteristics of the methods; Assets and drawbacks of the use of each of HRA method; History and prospects of the use of the methods). (P.A.)

Contribution of operating feedback to probabilistic safety studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guio, J.M. de; Lannoy, A.

1992-03-01

This paper presents the method used for PWR unit operation feedback analysis and its contribution to probabilistic safety studies. The targets were as follows: - use of failure data banks to assess reliability parameters, - use of event data banks to identify and quantify main system initiating events, - determination of a standard operating profile. These studies, performed in the context of nuclear power plant safety programs, prove useful not only to safety engineers but also to equipment experts, designers, operators and maintenance specialists. They constitute basic data for studies in all these areas or the departure point for new investigations. (authors). 3 figs., 3 tabs., 3 refs

DYNAMIC SOFTWARE TESTING MODELS WITH PROBABILISTIC PARAMETERS FOR FAULT DETECTION AND ERLANG DISTRIBUTION FOR FAULT RESOLUTION DURATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. D. Khomonenko

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Subject of Research.Software reliability and test planning models are studied taking into account the probabilistic nature of error detection and discovering. Modeling of software testing enables to plan the resources and final quality at early stages of project execution. Methods. Two dynamic models of processes (strategies are suggested for software testing, using error detection probability for each software module. The Erlang distribution is used for arbitrary distribution approximation of fault resolution duration. The exponential distribution is used for approximation of fault resolution discovering. For each strategy, modified labeled graphs are built, along with differential equation systems and their numerical solutions. The latter makes it possible to compute probabilistic characteristics of the test processes and states: probability states, distribution functions for fault detection and elimination, mathematical expectations of random variables, amount of detected or fixed errors. Evaluation of Results. Probabilistic characteristics for software development projects were calculated using suggested models. The strategies have been compared by their quality indexes. Required debugging time to achieve the specified quality goals was calculated. The calculation results are used for time and resources planning for new projects. Practical Relevance. The proposed models give the possibility to use the reliability estimates for each individual module. The Erlang approximation removes restrictions on the use of arbitrary time distribution for fault resolution duration. It improves the accuracy of software test process modeling and helps to take into account the viability (power of the tests. With the use of these models we can search for ways to improve software reliability by generating tests which detect errors with the highest probability.

Reliability evaluation of deregulated electric power systems for planning applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehsani, A.; Ranjbar, A.M.; Jafari, A.; Fotuhi-Firuzabad, M.

2008-01-01

In a deregulated electric power utility industry in which a competitive electricity market can influence system reliability, market risks cannot be ignored. This paper (1) proposes an analytical probabilistic model for reliability evaluation of competitive electricity markets and (2) develops a methodology for incorporating the market reliability problem into HLII reliability studies. A Markov state space diagram is employed to evaluate the market reliability. Since the market is a continuously operated system, the concept of absorbing states is applied to it in order to evaluate the reliability. The market states are identified by using market performance indices and the transition rates are calculated by using historical data. The key point in the proposed method is the concept that the reliability level of a restructured electric power system can be calculated using the availability of the composite power system (HLII) and the reliability of the electricity market. Two case studies are carried out over Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) to illustrate interesting features of the proposed methodology

Stormwater Tank Performance: Design and Management Criteria for Capture Tanks Using a Continuous Simulation and a Semi-Probabilistic Analytical Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flavio De Martino

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Stormwater tank performance significantly depends on management practices. This paper proposes a procedure to assess tank efficiency in terms of volume and pollutant concentration using four different capture tank management protocols. The comparison of the efficiency results reveals that, as expected, a combined bypass—stormwater tank system achieves better results than a tank alone. The management practices tested for the tank-only systems provide notably different efficiency results. The practice of immediately emptying after the end of the event exhibits significant levels of efficiency and operational advantages. All other configurations exhibit either significant operational problems or very low performances. The continuous simulation and semi-probabilistic approach for the best tank management practice are compared. The semi-probabilistic approach is based on a Weibull probabilistic model of the main characteristics of the rainfall process. Following this approach, efficiency indexes were established. The comparison with continuous simulations shows the reliability of the probabilistic approach even if this last is certainly very site sensitive.

Probabilistic vs linear blending approaches to shared control for wheelchair driving.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezeh, Chinemelu; Trautman, Pete; Devigne, Louise; Bureau, Valentin; Babel, Marie; Carlson, Tom

2017-07-01

Some people with severe mobility impairments are unable to operate powered wheelchairs reliably and effectively, using commercially available interfaces. This has sparked a body of research into "smart wheelchairs", which assist users to drive safely and create opportunities for them to use alternative interfaces. Various "shared control" techniques have been proposed to provide an appropriate level of assistance that is satisfactory and acceptable to the user. Most shared control techniques employ a traditional strategy called linear blending (LB), where the user's commands and wheelchair's autonomous commands are combined in some proportion. In this paper, however, we implement a more generalised form of shared control called probabilistic shared control (PSC). This probabilistic formulation improves the accuracy of modelling the interaction between the user and the wheelchair by taking into account uncertainty in the interaction. In this paper, we demonstrate the practical success of PSC over LB in terms of safety, particularly for novice users.

Development of probabilistic thinking-oriented learning tools for probability materials at junior high school students

Science.gov (United States)

Sari, Dwi Ivayana; Hermanto, Didik

2017-08-01

This research is a developmental research of probabilistic thinking-oriented learning tools for probability materials at ninth grade students. This study is aimed to produce a good probabilistic thinking-oriented learning tools. The subjects were IX-A students of MTs Model Bangkalan. The stages of this development research used 4-D development model which has been modified into define, design and develop. Teaching learning tools consist of lesson plan, students' worksheet, learning teaching media and students' achievement test. The research instrument used was a sheet of learning tools validation, a sheet of teachers' activities, a sheet of students' activities, students' response questionnaire and students' achievement test. The result of those instruments were analyzed descriptively to answer research objectives. The result was teaching learning tools in which oriented to probabilistic thinking of probability at ninth grade students which has been valid. Since teaching and learning tools have been revised based on validation, and after experiment in class produced that teachers' ability in managing class was effective, students' activities were good, students' responses to the learning tools were positive and the validity, sensitivity and reliability category toward achievement test. In summary, this teaching learning tools can be used by teacher to teach probability for develop students' probabilistic thinking.

Probabilistic and machine learning-based retrieval approaches for biomedical dataset retrieval

Science.gov (United States)

Karisani, Payam; Qin, Zhaohui S; Agichtein, Eugene

2018-01-01

Abstract The bioCADDIE dataset retrieval challenge brought together different approaches to retrieval of biomedical datasets relevant to a user’s query, expressed as a text description of a needed dataset. We describe experiments in applying a data-driven, machine learning-based approach to biomedical dataset retrieval as part of this challenge. We report on a series of experiments carried out to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic and machine learning-driven techniques from information retrieval, as applied to this challenge. Our experiments with probabilistic information retrieval methods, such as query term weight optimization, automatic query expansion and simulated user relevance feedback, demonstrate that automatically boosting the weights of important keywords in a verbose query is more effective than other methods. We also show that although there is a rich space of potential representations and features available in this domain, machine learning-based re-ranking models are not able to improve on probabilistic information retrieval techniques with the currently available training data. The models and algorithms presented in this paper can serve as a viable implementation of a search engine to provide access to biomedical datasets. The retrieval performance is expected to be further improved by using additional training data that is created by expert annotation, or gathered through usage logs, clicks and other processes during natural operation of the system. Database URL: https://github.com/emory-irlab/biocaddie

Shear-wave velocity-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction potential

Science.gov (United States)

Kayen, R.; Moss, R.E.S.; Thompson, E.M.; Seed, R.B.; Cetin, K.O.; Der Kiureghian, A.; Tanaka, Y.; Tokimatsu, K.

2013-01-01

Shear-wave velocity (Vs) offers a means to determine the seismic resistance of soil to liquefaction by a fundamental soil property. This paper presents the results of an 11-year international project to gather new Vs site data and develop probabilistic correlations for seismic soil liquefaction occurrence. Toward that objective, shear-wave velocity test sites were identified, and measurements made for 301 new liquefaction field case histories in China, Japan, Taiwan, Greece, and the United States over a decade. The majority of these new case histories reoccupy those previously investigated by penetration testing. These new data are combined with previously published case histories to build a global catalog of 422 case histories of Vs liquefaction performance. Bayesian regression and structural reliability methods facilitate a probabilistic treatment of the Vs catalog for performance-based engineering applications. Where possible, uncertainties of the variables comprising both the seismic demand and the soil capacity were estimated and included in the analysis, resulting in greatly reduced overall model uncertainty relative to previous studies. The presented data set and probabilistic analysis also help resolve the ancillary issues of adjustment for soil fines content and magnitude scaling factors.

Review of cause-based decision tree approach for the development of domestic standard human reliability analysis procedure in low power/shutdown operation probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, D. I.; Jung, W. D.

2003-01-01

We review the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT) approach to decide whether we incorporate it or not for the development of domestic standard Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) procedure in low power/shutdown operation Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). In this paper, we introduce the cause based decision tree approach, quantify human errors using it, and identify merits and demerits of it in comparision with previously used THERP. The review results show that it is difficult to incorporate the CBDT method for the development of domestic standard HRA procedure in low power/shutdown PSA because the CBDT method need for the subjective judgment of HRA analyst like as THERP. However, it is expected that the incorporation of the CBDT method into the development of domestic standard HRA procedure only for the comparision of quantitative HRA results will relieve the burden of development of detailed HRA procedure and will help maintain consistent quantitative HRA results

Preliminary investigation on reliability assessment of passive safety system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang Changfan; Kuang Bo

2012-01-01

The reliability evaluation of passive safety system plays an important part in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plant applying passive safety design, which depends quantitatively on reliabilities of passive safety system. According to the object of reliability assessment of passive safety system, relevant parameters are identified. Then passive system behavior during accident scenarios are studied. A practical example of this method is given for the case of reliability assessment of AP1000 passive heat removal system in loss of normal feedwater accident. Key and design parameters of PRHRS are identified and functional failure criteria are established. Parameter combinations acquired by Latin hyper~ cube sampling (LHS) in possible parametric ranges are input and calculations of uncertainty propagation through RELAP5/MOD3 code are carried out. Based on the calculations, sensitivity assessment on PRHRS functional criteria and reliability evaluation of the system are presented, which might provide further PSA with PRHR system reliability. (authors)

Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.

Probabilistic safety assessment in the chemical and nuclear industries

CERN Document Server

Fullwood, Ralph R

2000-01-01

Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) determines the probability and consequences of accidents, hence, the risk. This subject concerns policy makers, regulators, designers, educators and engineers working to achieve maximum safety with operational efficiency. Risk is analyzed using methods for achieving reliability in the space program. The first major application was to the nuclear power industry, followed by applications to the chemical industry. It has also been applied to space, aviation, defense, ground, and water transportation. This book is unique in its treatment of chemical and nuclear risk. Problems are included at the end of many chapters, and answers are in the back of the book. Computer files are provided (via the internet), containing reliability data, a calculator that determines failure rate and uncertainty based on field experience, pipe break calculator, event tree calculator, FTAP and associated programs for fault tree analysis, and a units conversion code. It contains 540 references and many...

Simplified application of probabilistic safety analysis in nuclear power plants by means of artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oehmgen, T.; Knorr, J.

2004-01-01

Probabilistic safety analyses (PSA) are conducted to assess the balanced nature of plant design in terms of technical safety and the administrative management of plant operation in nuclear power plants. In the evaluation shown in this article of the operating experience accumulated in two nuclear power plants, all failures are traced back consistently to the plant media and component levels, respectively, for the calculation of reliability coefficients. Moreover, the use of neural networks for probabilistic calculations is examined. The results are verified on the basis of test examples. Calculations with neural networks are very easy to carry out in a kind of 'black box'. There is a possibility, for instance, to use the system in plant maintenance. (orig.) [de

Reliability assessment of slender concrete columns at the stability failure

Science.gov (United States)

Valašík, Adrián; Benko, Vladimír; Strauss, Alfred; Täubling, Benjamin

2018-01-01

The European Standard for designing concrete columns within the use of non-linear methods shows deficiencies in terms of global reliability, in case that the concrete columns fail by the loss of stability. The buckling failure is a brittle failure which occurs without warning and the probability of its formation depends on the columns slenderness. Experiments with slender concrete columns were carried out in cooperation with STRABAG Bratislava LTD in Central Laboratory of Faculty of Civil Engineering SUT in Bratislava. The following article aims to compare the global reliability of slender concrete columns with slenderness of 90 and higher. The columns were designed according to methods offered by EN 1992-1-1 [1]. The mentioned experiments were used as basis for deterministic nonlinear modelling of the columns and subsequent the probabilistic evaluation of structural response variability. Final results may be utilized as thresholds for loading of produced structural elements and they aim to present probabilistic design as less conservative compared to classic partial safety factor based design and alternative ECOV method.

An empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Eden, Jonathan; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Hawkins, Ed; Suckling, Emma

2016-04-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Human reliability analysis in Loviisa probabilistic safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Illman, L.; Isaksson, J.; Makkonen, L.; Vaurio, J.K.; Vuorio, U.

1986-01-01

The human reliability analysis in the Loviisa PSA project is carried out for three major groups of errors in human actions: (A) errors made before an initiating event, (B) errors that initiate a transient and (C) errors made during transients. Recovery possibilities are also included in each group. The methods used or planned for each group are described. A simplified THERP approach is used for group A, with emphasis on test and maintenance error recovery aspects and dependencies between redundancies. For group B, task analyses and human factors assessments are made for startup, shutdown and operational transients, with emphasis on potential common cause initiators. For group C, both misdiagnosis and slow decision making are analyzed, as well as errors made in carrying out necessary or backup actions. New or advanced features of the methodology are described

Reliability and Robustness Evaluation of Timber Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cizmar, Dean; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

In the last few decades there have been intensely research concerning reliability of timber structures. This is primarily because there is an increased focus on society on sustainability and environmental aspects. Modern timber as a building material is also being competitive compared to concrete...... and steel. However, reliability models applied to timber were always related to individual components but not the systems. as any real structure is a complex system, system behaviour must be of a particular interest. In the chapter 1 of this document an overview of stochastic models for strength and loads...... (deterministic, probabilistic and risk based approaches) of the robustness are given. Chapter 3 deals more detailed with the robustness of timber structures....

Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

2017-10-01

The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

Integration of nondestructive examination reliability and fracture mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doctor, S.R.; Bates, D.J.; Charlot, L.A.

1985-01-01

The primary pressure boundaries (pressure vessels and piping) of nuclear power plants are in-service inspected (ISI) according to the rules of ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section XI. Ultrasonic techniques are normally used for these inspections, which are periodically performed on a sampling of welds. The Integration of Nondestructive Examination (NDE) Reliability and Fracture Mechanics (FM) Program at Pacific Northwest Laboratory was established to determine the reliability of current ISI techniques and to develop recommendations that will ensure a suitably high inspection reliability. The objectives of this NRC program are to: 1) determine the reliability of ultrasonic ISI performed on commercial light-water reactor primary systems; 2) using probabilistic FM analysis, determine the impact of NDE unreliability on system safety and determine the level of inspection reliability required to ensure a suitably low failure probability; 3) evaluate the degree of reliability improvement that could be achieved using improved and advanced NDE techniques; and 4) based on material properties, service conditions, and NDE uncertainties, formulate recommended revisions to ASME Code, Section XI, and Regulatory Requirements needed to ensure suitably low failure probabilities

Probabilistic safety analysis procedures guide, Sections 8-12. Volume 2, Rev. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCann, M.; Reed, J.; Ruger, C.; Shiu, K.; Teichmann, T.; Unione, A.; Youngblood, R.

1985-08-01

A procedures guide for the performance of probabilistic safety assessment has been prepared for interim use in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission programs. It will be revised as comments are received, and as experience is gained from its use. The probabilistic safety assessment studies performed are intended to produce probabilistic predictive models that can be used and extended by the utilities and by NRC to sharpen the focus of inquiries into a range of issues affecting reactor safety. The first volume of the guide describes the determination of the probability (per year) of core damage resulting from accident initiators internal to the plant (i.e., intrinsic to plant operation) and from loss of off-site electric power. The scope includes human reliability analysis, a determination of the importance of various core damage accident sequences, and an explicit treatment and display of uncertainties for key accident sequences. This second volume deals with the treatment of the so-called external events including seismic disturbances, fires, floods, etc. Ultimately, the guide will be augmented to include the plant-specific analysis of in-plant processes (i.e., containment performance). This guide provides the structure of a probabilistic safety study to be performed, and indicates what products of the study are valuable for regulatory decision making. For internal events, methodology is treated in the guide only to the extent necessary to indicate the range of methods which is acceptable; ample reference is given to alternative methodologies which may be utilized in the performance of the study. For external events, more explicit guidance is given

Probabilist methods applied to electric source problems in nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carnino, A.; Llory, M.

1979-01-01

Nuclear Safety has frequently been asked to quantify safety margins and evaluate the hazard. In order to do so, the probabilist methods have proved to be the most promising. Without completely replacing determinist safety, they are now commonly used at the reliability or availability stages of systems as well as for determining the likely accidental sequences. In this paper an application linked to the problem of electric sources is described, whilst at the same time indicating the methods used. This is the calculation of the probable loss of all the electric sources of a pressurized water nuclear power station, the evaluation of the reliability of diesels by event trees of failures and the determination of accidental sequences which could be brought about by the 'total electric source loss' initiator and affect the installation or the environment [fr

Proceedings of the SRESA national conference on reliability and safety engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varde, P.V.; Vaishnavi, P.; Sujatha, S.; Valarmathi, A.

2014-01-01

The objective of this conference was to provide a forum for technical discussions on recent developments in the area of risk based approach and Prognostic Health Management of critical systems in decision making. The reliability and safety engineering methods are concerned with the way which the product fails, and the effects of failure is to understand how a product works and assures acceptable levels of safety. The reliability engineering addresses all the anticipated and possibly unanticipated causes of failure to ensure the occurrence of failure is prevented or minimized. The topics discussed in the conference were: Reliability in Engineering Design, Safety Assessment and Management, Reliability analysis and Assessment , Stochastic Petri nets for reliability Modeling, Dynamic Reliability, Reliability Prediction, Hardware Reliability, Software Reliability in Safety Critical Issues, Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Risk Informed Approach, Dynamic Models for Reliability Analysis, Reliability based Design and Analysis, Prognostics and Health Management, Remaining Useful Life (RUL), Human Reliability Modeling, Risk Based Applications, Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP), Reliability in Network Security and Quality Assurance and Management etc. The papers relevant to INIS are indexed separately

Reliability technology and nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.; Kaplan, S.

1976-01-01

This paper reviews some of the history and status of nuclear reliability and the evolution of this subject from art towards science. It shows that that probability theory is the appropriate and essential mathematical language of this subject. The authors emphasize that it is more useful to view probability not as a $prime$frequency$prime$, i.e., not as the result of a statistical experiment, but rather as a measure of state of confidence or a state of knowledge. They also show that the probabilistic, quantitative approach has a considerable history of application in the electric power industry in the area of power system planning. Finally, the authors show that the decision theory notion of utility provides a point of view from which risks, benefits, safety, and reliability can be viewed in a unified way thus facilitating understanding, comparison, and communication. 29 refs

Probabilistic Modeling of Graded Timber Material Properties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faber, M. H.; Köhler, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2004-01-01

The probabilistic modeling of timber material characteristics is considered with special emphasis to the modeling of the effect of different quality control and selection procedures used as means for quality grading in the production line. It is shown how statistical models may be established...... on the basis of the same type of information which is normally collected as a part of the quality control procedures and furthermore, how the efficiency of different control procedures may be quantified and compared. The tail behavior of the probability distributions of timber material characteristics plays...... such that they may readily be applied in structural reliability analysis and their format appears to be appropriate for codification purposes of quality control and selection for grading procedures....

Probabilistic broadcasting of mixed states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Lvjun; Li Lvzhou; Wu Lihua; Zou Xiangfu; Qiu Daowen

2009-01-01

It is well known that the non-broadcasting theorem proved by Barnum et al is a fundamental principle of quantum communication. As we are aware, optimal broadcasting (OB) is the only method to broadcast noncommuting mixed states approximately. In this paper, motivated by the probabilistic cloning of quantum states proposed by Duan and Guo, we propose a new way for broadcasting noncommuting mixed states-probabilistic broadcasting (PB), and we present a sufficient condition for PB of mixed states. To a certain extent, we generalize the probabilistic cloning theorem from pure states to mixed states, and in particular, we generalize the non-broadcasting theorem, since the case that commuting mixed states can be exactly broadcast can be thought of as a special instance of PB where the success ratio is 1. Moreover, we discuss probabilistic local broadcasting (PLB) of separable bipartite states

Reliability Analysis for Adhesive Bonded Composite Stepped Lap Joints Loaded in Fatigue

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kimiaeifar, Amin; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Lund, Erik

2012-01-01

-1, where partial safety factors are introduced together with characteristic values. Asymptotic sampling is used to estimate the reliability with support points generated by randomized Sobol sequences. The predicted reliability level is compared with the implicitly required target reliability level defined......This paper describes a probabilistic approach to calculate the reliability of adhesive bonded composite stepped lap joints loaded in fatigue using three- dimensional finite element analysis (FEA). A method for progressive damage modelling is used to assess fatigue damage accumulation and residual...... by the wind turbine standard IEC 61400-1. Finally, an approach for the assessment of the reliability of adhesive bonded composite stepped lap joints loaded in fatigue is presented. The introduced methodology can be applied in the same way to calculate the reliability level of wind turbine blade components...

Possible use and limits of probabilistic models in connection with the reliability of large-scale plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmitt, W.; Baudendistel, E.; Ockewitz, A.

1987-03-01

The OCA-P program makes the deterministic and probabilistic safety analysis of reactor pressure vessels possible. The special routines in OCA-P for calculating the stress intensity factors are replaced by inherent developments. These methods permit the treatment of general fault and container geometries. The plot of the OCA-P was converted to the CALCOMP format. The checking was done by calculating examples with the original version and fictional examples of German plants (HDR). (DG) With 13 refs., 3 tabs., 46 figs [de

Reliability enhancement of portal frame structure by finite element synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakagiri, S.

1989-01-01

The stochastic finite element methods have been applied to the evaluation of structural response and reliability of uncertain structural systems. The structural reliability index of the advanced first-order second moment (AFOSM) method is a candidate of the measure of assessing structural safety and reliability. The reliability index can be evaluated when a baseline design of structures under interest is proposed and the covariance matrix of the probabilistic variables is acquired to represent uncertainties involved in the structure systems. The reliability index thus evaluated is not assured the largest one for the structure. There is left a possibility to enhance the structural reliability for the given covariance matrix by changing the baseline design. From such a viewpoint of structural optimization, some ideas have been proposed to maximize the reliability or to minimize the failure probability of uncertain structural systems. A method of changing the design is proposed to increase the reliability index from its baseline value to another desired value. The reliability index in this paper is calculated mainly by the method of Lagrange multiplier

Reliability Electrical Power System of Hospital as Cold Standby System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grabski Franciszek

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The probabilistic model of a hospital electrical power system consisting of mains, an emergency power system and the automatic transfer switch with the generator starter are discussed in this paper. The reliability model is semi-Markov process describing two different units renewable cold standby system and switch. The embedded Semi-Markov processes concept is applied for description of the system evolution. Time to failure of the system is represented by a random variable denoting the first passage time of the process from the given state to the subset of states. The appropriate theorems of the Semi-Markov processes theory allow us to evaluate the reliability function and some reliability characteristics.

Reliability analysis of digital I and C systems at KAERI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Man Cheol

2013-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the ongoing research activities on a reliability analysis of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems of nuclear power plants (NPPs) performed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The research activities include the development of a new safety-critical software reliability analysis method by integrating the advantages of existing software reliability analysis methods, a fault coverage estimation method based on fault injection experiments, and a new human reliability analysis method for computer-based main control rooms (MCRs) based on human performance data from the APR-1400 full-scope simulator. The research results are expected to be used to address various issues such as the licensing issues related to digital I and C probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for advanced digital-based NPPs. (author)

Confluence Reduction for Probabilistic Systems (extended version)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmer, Mark; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis

2010-01-01

This paper presents a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We prove that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To support the

Probabilistic modelling of security of supply in gas networks and evaluation of new infrastructure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Praks, Pavel; Kopustinskas, Vytis; Masera, Marcelo

2015-01-01

The paper presents a probabilistic model to study security of supply in a gas network. The model is based on Monte-Carlo simulations with graph theory, and is implemented in the software tool ProGasNet. The software allows studying gas networks in various aspects including identification of weakest links and nodes, vulnerability analysis, bottleneck analysis, evaluation of new infrastructure etc. In this paper ProGasNet is applied to a benchmark network based on a real EU gas transmission network of several countries with the purpose of evaluating the security of supply effects of new infrastructure, either under construction, recently completed or under planning. The probabilistic model enables quantitative evaluations by comparing the reliability of gas supply in each consuming node of the network. - Highlights: • A Monte-Carlo algorithm for stochastic flow networks is presented. • Network elements can fail according to a given probabilistic model. • Priority supply pattern of gas transmission networks is assumed. • A real-world EU gas transmission network is presented and analyzed. • A risk ratio is used for security of supply quantification of a new infrastructure.

Chiefly Symmetric: Results on the Scalability of Probabilistic Model Checking for Operating-System Code

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcus Völp

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Reliability in terms of functional properties from the safety-liveness spectrum is an indispensable requirement of low-level operating-system (OS code. However, with evermore complex and thus less predictable hardware, quantitative and probabilistic guarantees become more and more important. Probabilistic model checking is one technique to automatically obtain these guarantees. First experiences with the automated quantitative analysis of low-level operating-system code confirm the expectation that the naive probabilistic model checking approach rapidly reaches its limits when increasing the numbers of processes. This paper reports on our work-in-progress to tackle the state explosion problem for low-level OS-code caused by the exponential blow-up of the model size when the number of processes grows. We studied the symmetry reduction approach and carried out our experiments with a simple test-and-test-and-set lock case study as a representative example for a wide range of protocols with natural inter-process dependencies and long-run properties. We quickly see a state-space explosion for scenarios where inter-process dependencies are insignificant. However, once inter-process dependencies dominate the picture models with hundred and more processes can be constructed and analysed.

Research on probabilistic assessment method based on the corroded pipeline assessment criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Guangli; Luo, Jinheng; Zhao Xinwei; Zhang Hua; Zhang Liang; Zhang Yi

2012-01-01

Pipeline integrity assessments are performed using conventional deterministic approaches, even though there are many uncertainties about the parameters in the pipeline integrity assessment. In this paper, a probabilistic assessment method is provided for the gas pipeline with corrosion defects based on the current corroded pipe evaluation criteria, and the failure probability of corroded pipelines due to the uncertainties of loadings, material property and measurement accuracy is estimated using Monte-Carlo technique. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis approach is introduced to rank the influence of various random variables to the safety of pipeline. And the method to determine the critical defect size based on acceptable failure probability is proposed. Highlights: ► The folias factor in pipeline corrosion assessment methods was analyzed. ► The probabilistic method was applied in corrosion assessment methods. ► The influence of assessment variables to the reliability of pipeline was ranked. ► The acceptable failure probability was used to determine the critical defect size.

Probabilistic risk assessment and its role in plant modifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diederich, A.R.; McElroy, W.F.

1986-01-01

Electric Utilities today have a tool available to improve management's ability to evaluate nuclear power plant modifications (MODS). Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), is a tool of choice since it can be applied to a specific situation such as MOD request review, bringing the perspectives of reliability, financial risk and consequences to the public in addition to the more rigid requirements like those associated with Quality Assurance or licensing criteria. The techniques used in the PRA process revolve about the creation and manipulation of Fault Trees and Event Trees, which are used to quantify the event sequences and reliability of plant systems in a logical framework. It is through these methods that chains of sequences, or events, are understood. The degree to which plant systems are modelled in the PRA can vary depending on resources and purpose. Philadelphia Elecrtric Company's PRA modelled ten (10) major systems but this number may increase during the application and updating process

Improved probabilistic inference as a general learning mechanism with action video games.

Science.gov (United States)

Green, C Shawn; Pouget, Alexandre; Bavelier, Daphne

2010-09-14

Action video game play benefits performance in an array of sensory, perceptual, and attentional tasks that go well beyond the specifics of game play [1-9]. That a training regimen may induce improvements in so many different skills is notable because the majority of studies on training-induced learning report improvements on the trained task but limited transfer to other, even closely related, tasks ([10], but see also [11-13]). Here we ask whether improved probabilistic inference may explain such broad transfer. By using a visual perceptual decision making task [14, 15], the present study shows for the first time that action video game experience does indeed improve probabilistic inference. A neural model of this task [16] establishes how changing a single parameter, namely the strength of the connections between the neural layer providing the momentary evidence and the layer integrating the evidence over time, captures improvements in action-gamers behavior. These results were established in a visual, but also in a novel auditory, task, indicating generalization across modalities. Thus, improved probabilistic inference provides a general mechanism for why action video game playing enhances performance in a wide variety of tasks. In addition, this mechanism may serve as a signature of training regimens that are likely to produce transfer of learning. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic safety evaluation: Development of procedures with applications on components used in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dillstroem, P.

2000-12-01

A probabilistic procedure has been developed by SAQ Kontroll AB to calculate two different failure probabilities, P F : Probability of failure, defect size given by NDT/NDE. Probability of failure, defect not detected by NDT/NDE. Based on the procedure, SAQ Kontroll AB has developed a computer program PROPSE (PRObabilistic Program for Safety Evaluation). Within PROPSE, the following features are implemented: Two different algorithms to calculate the probability of failure are included: Simple Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), with an error estimate on P F . First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), with sensitivity factors using the most probable point of failure in a standard normal space. Using these factors, it is possible to rank the parameters within an analysis. Estimation of partial safety factors, given an input target failure probability and characteristic values for fracture toughness, yield strength, tensile strength and defect depth. Extensive validation has been carried out, using the probabilistic computer program STAR6 from Nuclear Electric and the deterministic program SACC from SAQ Kontroll AB. The validation showed that the results from PROPSE were correct, and that the algorithms used in STAR6 were not intended to work for a general problem, when the standard deviation is either 'small' or 'large'. Distributions, to be used in a probabilistic analysis, are discussed. Examples on data to be used are also given

Probabilistic safety evaluation: Development of procedures with applications on components used in nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dillstroem, P. [Det Norske Veritas AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

2000-12-01

A probabilistic procedure has been developed by SAQ Kontroll AB to calculate two different failure probabilities, P{sub F}: Probability of failure, defect size given by NDT/NDE. Probability of failure, defect not detected by NDT/NDE. Based on the procedure, SAQ Kontroll AB has developed a computer program PROPSE (PRObabilistic Program for Safety Evaluation). Within PROPSE, the following features are implemented: Two different algorithms to calculate the probability of failure are included: Simple Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), with an error estimate on P{sub F}. First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), with sensitivity factors using the most probable point of failure in a standard normal space. Using these factors, it is possible to rank the parameters within an analysis. Estimation of partial safety factors, given an input target failure probability and characteristic values for fracture toughness, yield strength, tensile strength and defect depth. Extensive validation has been carried out, using the probabilistic computer program STAR6 from Nuclear Electric and the deterministic program SACC from SAQ Kontroll AB. The validation showed that the results from PROPSE were correct, and that the algorithms used in STAR6 were not intended to work for a general problem, when the standard deviation is either 'small' or 'large'. Distributions, to be used in a probabilistic analysis, are discussed. Examples on data to be used are also given.

Probabilistic Analysis of Structural Member from Recycled Aggregate Concrete

Science.gov (United States)

Broukalová, I.; Šeps, K.

2017-09-01

The paper aims at the topic of sustainable building concerning recycling of waste rubble concrete from demolition. Considering demands of maximising recycled aggregate use and minimising of cement consumption, composite from recycled concrete aggregate was proposed. The objective of the presented investigations was to verify feasibility of the recycled aggregate cement based fibre reinforced composite in a structural member. Reliability of wall from recycled aggregate fibre reinforced composite was assessed in a probabilistic analysis of a load-bearing capacity of the wall. The applicability of recycled aggregate fibre reinforced concrete in structural applications was demonstrated. The outcomes refer to issue of high scatter of material parameters of recycled aggregate concretes.

Probabilistic Mu-Calculus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Mardare, Radu Iulian; Xue, Bingtian

2016-01-01

We introduce a version of the probabilistic µ-calculus (PMC) built on top of a probabilistic modal logic that allows encoding n-ary inequational conditions on transition probabilities. PMC extends previously studied calculi and we prove that, despite its expressiveness, it enjoys a series of good...... metaproperties. Firstly, we prove the decidability of satisfiability checking by establishing the small model property. An algorithm for deciding the satisfiability problem is developed. As a second major result, we provide a complete axiomatization for the alternation-free fragment of PMC. The completeness proof...

Best estimate probabilistic safety assessment results for the Westinghouse Advanced Loop Tester (WALT)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Guoqiang; Xu, Yiban; Oelrich, Robert L. Jr.; Byers, William A.; Young, Michael Y.; Karoutas, Zeses E.

2011-01-01

The nuclear industry uses the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technique to improve safety decision making and operation. The methodology evaluates the system reliability, which is defined as the probability of system success, and the postulated accident/problematic scenarios of systems for the nuclear power plants or other facilities. The best estimate probabilistic safety assessment (BE-PSA) method of evaluating system reliability and postulated problematic scenarios will produce more detailed results of interest, such as best estimated reliability analysis and detailed thermal hydraulic calculations using a sub-channel or Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code. The methodology is typically applied to reactors, but can also be applied to any system such as a test facility. In this paper, a BE-PSA method is introduced and used for evaluating the Westinghouse Advanced Loop Tester (WALT). The WALT test loop at the George Westinghouse Science and Technology Center (STC), which was completed in October 2005, is designed to be utilized to model the top grid span of a hot rod in a fuel assembly under the Pressurizer Water Reactor (PWR) normal operating conditions. In order to safely and successfully operate the WALT test loop and correctly use the WALT experimental data, it is beneficial to perform a probabilistic safety assessment and analyze the thermal hydraulic results for the WALT loop in detail. Since October 2005, a number of test runs have been performed on the WALT test facility designed and fabricated by Westinghouse Electric Company LLC. This paper briefly describes the BE-PSA method and performs BE-PSA for the WALT loop. Event trees linked with fault trees embedding thermal hydraulic analysis models, such as sub-channel and/or CFD models, were utilized in the analyses. Consequently, some selected useful experimental data and analysis results are presented for future guidance on WALT and/or other similar test facilities. For example, finding and

Improvement of the reliability graph with general gates to analyze the reliability of dynamic systems that have various operation modes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shin, Seung Ki [Div. of Research Reactor System Design, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); No, Young Gyu; Seong, Poong Hyun [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-04-15

The safety of nuclear power plants is analyzed by a probabilistic risk assessment, and the fault tree analysis is the most widely used method for a risk assessment with the event tree analysis. One of the well-known disadvantages of the fault tree is that drawing a fault tree for a complex system is a very cumbersome task. Thus, several graphical modeling methods have been proposed for the convenient and intuitive modeling of complex systems. In this paper, the reliability graph with general gates (RGGG) method, one of the intuitive graphical modeling methods based on Bayesian networks, is improved for the reliability analyses of dynamic systems that have various operation modes with time. A reliability matrix is proposed and it is explained how to utilize the reliability matrix in the RGGG for various cases of operation mode changes. The proposed RGGG with a reliability matrix provides a convenient and intuitive modeling of various operation modes of complex systems, and can also be utilized with dynamic nodes that analyze the failure sequences of subcomponents. The combinatorial use of a reliability matrix with dynamic nodes is illustrated through an application to a shutdown cooling system in a nuclear power plant.

Improvement of the reliability graph with general gates to analyze the reliability of dynamic systems that have various operation modes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Seung Ki; No, Young Gyu; Seong, Poong Hyun

2016-01-01

The safety of nuclear power plants is analyzed by a probabilistic risk assessment, and the fault tree analysis is the most widely used method for a risk assessment with the event tree analysis. One of the well-known disadvantages of the fault tree is that drawing a fault tree for a complex system is a very cumbersome task. Thus, several graphical modeling methods have been proposed for the convenient and intuitive modeling of complex systems. In this paper, the reliability graph with general gates (RGGG) method, one of the intuitive graphical modeling methods based on Bayesian networks, is improved for the reliability analyses of dynamic systems that have various operation modes with time. A reliability matrix is proposed and it is explained how to utilize the reliability matrix in the RGGG for various cases of operation mode changes. The proposed RGGG with a reliability matrix provides a convenient and intuitive modeling of various operation modes of complex systems, and can also be utilized with dynamic nodes that analyze the failure sequences of subcomponents. The combinatorial use of a reliability matrix with dynamic nodes is illustrated through an application to a shutdown cooling system in a nuclear power plant

Structural reliability in context of statistical uncertainties and modelling discrepancies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pendola, Maurice

2000-01-01

Structural reliability methods have been largely improved during the last years and have showed their ability to deal with uncertainties during the design stage or to optimize the functioning and the maintenance of industrial installations. They are based on a mechanical modeling of the structural behavior according to the considered failure modes and on a probabilistic representation of input parameters of this modeling. In practice, only limited statistical information is available to build the probabilistic representation and different sophistication levels of the mechanical modeling may be introduced. Thus, besides the physical randomness, other uncertainties occur in such analyses. The aim of this work is triple: 1. at first, to propose a methodology able to characterize the statistical uncertainties due to the limited number of data in order to take them into account in the reliability analyses. The obtained reliability index measures the confidence in the structure considering the statistical information available. 2. Then, to show a methodology leading to reliability results evaluated from a particular mechanical modeling but by using a less sophisticated one. The objective is then to decrease the computational efforts required by the reference modeling. 3. Finally, to propose partial safety factors that are evolving as a function of the number of statistical data available and as a function of the sophistication level of the mechanical modeling that is used. The concepts are illustrated in the case of a welded pipe and in the case of a natural draught cooling tower. The results show the interest of the methodologies in an industrial context. [fr

Insights from the Probabilistic Safety Assessment Application to Subsurface Operations at the Preclosure Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hwang, Mee Jeong; Jung, Jong Tae

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present the insights obtained through the PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) application to subsurface operation at the preclosure facilities of the repository. At present, medium-low level waste repository has been constructed in Korea, and studies for disposal of high level wastes are under way. Also, safety analysis for repository operation has been performed. Thus, we performed a probabilistic safety analysis for surface operation at the preclosure facilities with PSA methodology for a nuclear power plant. Since we don't have a code to analyze the waste repository safety analysis, we used the codes, AIMS (Advanced Information Management System for PSA) and FTREX (Fault Tree Reliability Evaluation eXpert) which are developed for a nuclear power plant's PSA to develop ET (Event Tree) and FT (Fault Tree), and to quantify for an example analysis

Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Y.H.J.; Mosleh, A.

2007-01-01

This is the last in a series of five papers that discuss the Information Decision and Action in Crew (IDAC) context for human reliability analysis (HRA) and example application. The model is developed to probabilistically predict the responses of the control room operating crew in nuclear power plants during an accident, for use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, emotional, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper describes a dynamic PRA computer simulation program, accident dynamics simulator (ADS), developed in part to implement the IDAC model. This paper also provides a detailed example of implementing a simpler version of IDAC, compared with the IDAC model discussed in the first four papers of this series, to demonstrate the practicality of integrating a detailed cognitive HRA model within a dynamic PRA framework

Probabilistic Inference: Task Dependency and Individual Differences of Probability Weighting Revealed by Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Boos, Moritz; Seer, Caroline; Lange, Florian; Kopp, Bruno

2016-01-01

Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities) by two (likelihoods) design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behavior. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted) S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model's success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modeling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision.

Probabilistic inference: Task dependency and individual differences of probability weighting revealed by hierarchical Bayesian modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moritz eBoos

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modelling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities by two (likelihoods design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behaviour. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model’s success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modelling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modelling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision.

Formalizing Probabilistic Safety Claims

Science.gov (United States)

Herencia-Zapana, Heber; Hagen, George E.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.

2011-01-01

A safety claim for a system is a statement that the system, which is subject to hazardous conditions, satisfies a given set of properties. Following work by John Rushby and Bev Littlewood, this paper presents a mathematical framework that can be used to state and formally prove probabilistic safety claims. It also enables hazardous conditions, their uncertainties, and their interactions to be integrated into the safety claim. This framework provides a formal description of the probabilistic composition of an arbitrary number of hazardous conditions and their effects on system behavior. An example is given of a probabilistic safety claim for a conflict detection algorithm for aircraft in a 2D airspace. The motivation for developing this mathematical framework is that it can be used in an automated theorem prover to formally verify safety claims.

Identifiability of tree-child phylogenetic networks under a probabilistic recombination-mutation model of evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Francis, Andrew; Moulton, Vincent

2018-06-07

Phylogenetic networks are an extension of phylogenetic trees which are used to represent evolutionary histories in which reticulation events (such as recombination and hybridization) have occurred. A central question for such networks is that of identifiability, which essentially asks under what circumstances can we reliably identify the phylogenetic network that gave rise to the observed data? Recently, identifiability results have appeared for networks relative to a model of sequence evolution that generalizes the standard Markov models used for phylogenetic trees. However, these results are quite limited in terms of the complexity of the networks that are considered. In this paper, by introducing an alternative probabilistic model for evolution along a network that is based on some ground-breaking work by Thatte for pedigrees, we are able to obtain an identifiability result for a much larger class of phylogenetic networks (essentially the class of so-called tree-child networks). To prove our main theorem, we derive some new results for identifying tree-child networks combinatorially, and then adapt some techniques developed by Thatte for pedigrees to show that our combinatorial results imply identifiability in the probabilistic setting. We hope that the introduction of our new model for networks could lead to new approaches to reliably construct phylogenetic networks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic approach for representation of interval uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaman, Kais; Rangavajhala, Sirisha; McDonald, Mark P.; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2011-01-01

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic approach to represent interval data for input variables in reliability and uncertainty analysis problems, using flexible families of continuous Johnson distributions. Such a probabilistic representation of interval data facilitates a unified framework for handling aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. For fitting probability distributions, methods such as moment matching are commonly used in the literature. However, unlike point data where single estimates for the moments of data can be calculated, moments of interval data can only be computed in terms of upper and lower bounds. Finding bounds on the moments of interval data has been generally considered an NP-hard problem because it includes a search among the combinations of multiple values of the variables, including interval endpoints. In this paper, we present efficient algorithms based on continuous optimization to find the bounds on second and higher moments of interval data. With numerical examples, we show that the proposed bounding algorithms are scalable in polynomial time with respect to increasing number of intervals. Using the bounds on moments computed using the proposed approach, we fit a family of Johnson distributions to interval data. Furthermore, using an optimization approach based on percentiles, we find the bounding envelopes of the family of distributions, termed as a Johnson p-box. The idea of bounding envelopes for the family of Johnson distributions is analogous to the notion of empirical p-box in the literature. Several sets of interval data with different numbers of intervals and type of overlap are presented to demonstrate the proposed methods. As against the computationally expensive nested analysis that is typically required in the presence of interval variables, the proposed probabilistic representation enables inexpensive optimization-based strategies to estimate bounds on an output quantity of interest.

Probabilistic assessment methods as a tool for developing nations to make safety decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gumley, P.; Inamdar, S.V.

1985-01-01

This paper advocates the use of probabilistic safety assessment methods in making safety decisions. It discusses the question of adequate safety - what it means to a country buying a nuclear power plant, and how probabilistic safety assessment studies of the reference plant can be used for ensuring this adequate safety. It is proposed that adequate safety means ensuring that the plant would behave, in accident conditions, in a manner similar to the way it is expected to behave were it in the country of origin. For this one needs to know how the plant responds under somewhat altered conditions. These altered conditions can arise from such factors as varying reliability of electrical grids, different manufacturing technology, local systems design and operator capability. In the design of nuclear power plants, the traditional approach to safety has led to the belief that availability and effectiveness of safety systems alone are all that is required to ensure plant safety. This belief can result in design oversights leading to potential problems arising from the power production systems and the service systems. Participation by the buying country in the design of such systems, and understanding the safety implications thereof, can be facilitated by probabilistic safety assessment methods. This philosophy is illustrated in this paper by examples. (author)

The Bayes linear approach to inference and decision-making for a reliability programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldstein, Michael; Bedford, Tim

2007-01-01

In reliability modelling it is conventional to build sophisticated models of the probabilistic behaviour of the component lifetimes in a system in order to deduce information about the probabilistic behaviour of the system lifetime. Decision modelling of the reliability programme requires a priori, therefore, an even more sophisticated set of models in order to capture the evidence the decision maker believes may be obtained from different types of data acquisition. Bayes linear analysis is a methodology that uses expectation rather than probability as the fundamental expression of uncertainty. By working only with expected values, a simpler level of modelling is needed as compared to full probability models. In this paper we shall consider the Bayes linear approach to the estimation of a mean time to failure MTTF of a component. The model built will take account of the variance in our estimate of the MTTF, based on a variety of sources of information

Compression of Probabilistic XML documents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veldman, Irma

2009-01-01

Probabilistic XML (PXML) files resulting from data integration can become extremely large, which is undesired. For XML there are several techniques available to compress the document and since probabilistic XML is in fact (a special form of) XML, it might benefit from these methods even more. In

Composite system reliability evaluation by stochastic calculation of system operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haubrick, H -J; Hinz, H -J; Landeck, E [Dept. of Power Systems and Power Economics (Germany)

1994-12-31

This report describes a new developed probabilistic approach for steady-state composite system reliability evaluation and its exemplary application to a bulk power test system. The new computer program called PHOENIX takes into consideration transmission limitations, outages of lines and power stations and, as a central element, a highly sophisticated model to the dispatcher performing remedial actions after disturbances. The kernel of the new method is a procedure for optimal power flow calculation that has been specially adapted for the use in reliability evaluations under the above mentioned conditions. (author) 11 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

Dynamic reliability of digital-based transmitters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brissaud, Florent, E-mail: florent.brissaud.2007@utt.f [Institut National de l' Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France) and Universite de Technologie de Troyes - UTT, Institut Charles Delaunay - ICD and UMR CNRS 6279 STMR, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes Cedex (France); Smidts, Carol [Ohio State University (OSU), Nuclear Engineering Program, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Scott Laboratory, 201 W 19th Ave, Columbus OH 43210 (United States); Barros, Anne; Berenguer, Christophe [Universite de Technologie de Troyes (UTT), Institut Charles Delaunay (ICD) and UMR CNRS 6279 STMR, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes Cedex (France)

2011-07-15

Dynamic reliability explicitly handles the interactions between the stochastic behaviour of system components and the deterministic behaviour of process variables. While dynamic reliability provides a more efficient and realistic way to perform probabilistic risk assessment than 'static' approaches, its industrial level applications are still limited. Factors contributing to this situation are the inherent complexity of the theory and the lack of a generic platform. More recently the increased use of digital-based systems has also introduced additional modelling challenges related to specific interactions between system components. Typical examples are the 'intelligent transmitters' which are able to exchange information, and to perform internal data processing and advanced functionalities. To make a contribution to solving these challenges, the mathematical framework of dynamic reliability is extended to handle the data and information which are processed and exchanged between systems components. Stochastic deviations that may affect system properties are also introduced to enhance the modelling of failures. A formalized Petri net approach is then presented to perform the corresponding reliability analyses using numerical methods. Following this formalism, a versatile model for the dynamic reliability modelling of digital-based transmitters is proposed. Finally the framework's flexibility and effectiveness is demonstrated on a substantial case study involving a simplified model of a nuclear fast reactor.

Probabilistic Infinite Secret Sharing

OpenAIRE

Csirmaz, László

2013-01-01

The study of probabilistic secret sharing schemes using arbitrary probability spaces and possibly infinite number of participants lets us investigate abstract properties of such schemes. It highlights important properties, explains why certain definitions work better than others, connects this topic to other branches of mathematics, and might yield new design paradigms. A probabilistic secret sharing scheme is a joint probability distribution of the shares and the secret together with a colle...

River Flow Prediction Using the Nearest Neighbor Probabilistic Ensemble Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Sanikhani

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: In the recent years, researchers interested on probabilistic forecasting of hydrologic variables such river flow.A probabilistic approach aims at quantifying the prediction reliability through a probability distribution function or a prediction interval for the unknown future value. The evaluation of the uncertainty associated to the forecast is seen as a fundamental information, not only to correctly assess the prediction, but also to compare forecasts from different methods and to evaluate actions and decisions conditionally on the expected values. Several probabilistic approaches have been proposed in the literature, including (1 methods that use resampling techniques to assess parameter and model uncertainty, such as the Metropolis algorithm or the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE methodology for an application to runoff prediction, (2 methods based on processing the forecast errors of past data to produce the probability distributions of future values and (3 methods that evaluate how the uncertainty propagates from the rainfall forecast to the river discharge prediction, as the Bayesian forecasting system. Materials and Methods: In this study, two different probabilistic methods are used for river flow prediction.Then the uncertainty related to the forecast is quantified. One approach is based on linear predictors and in the other, nearest neighbor was used. The nonlinear probabilistic ensemble can be used for nonlinear time series analysis using locally linear predictors, while NNPE utilize a method adapted for one step ahead nearest neighbor methods. In this regard, daily river discharge (twelve years of Dizaj and Mashin Stations on Baranduz-Chay basin in west Azerbijan and Zard-River basin in Khouzestan provinces were used, respectively. The first six years of data was applied for fitting the model. The next three years was used to calibration and the remained three yeas utilized for testing the models

Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparative Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Nekrasova, Anastasia; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Panza, Giuliano F.

2016-04-01

Objective testing is the key issue towards any reliable seismic hazard assessment (SHA). Different earthquake hazard maps must demonstrate their capability in anticipating ground shaking from future strong earthquakes before an appropriate use for different purposes - such as engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. Quantitative assessment of maps performances is an essential step also in scientific process of their revision and possible improvement. Cross-checking of probabilistic models with available observations and independent physics based models is recognized as major validation procedure. The existing maps from the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well as those from the neo-deterministic analysis (NDSHA), which have been already developed for several regions worldwide (including Italy, India and North Africa), are considered to exemplify the possibilities of the cross-comparative analysis in spotting out limits and advantages of different methods. Where the data permit, a comparative analysis versus the documented seismic activity observed in reality is carried out, showing how available observations about past earthquakes can contribute to assess performances of the different methods. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for consideration of a wide range of possible earthquake sources as the starting point for scenarios constructed via full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of empirical attenuation models (i.e. Ground Motion Prediction Equations, GMPE) and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking (i.e. complete synthetic seismograms), readily applicable to complete engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. The standard NDSHA maps provide reliable envelope estimates of maximum seismic ground motion from a wide set of possible scenario earthquakes, including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake. In addition

Reliability Analysis of a Steel Frame

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Sýkora

2002-01-01

Full Text Available A steel frame with haunches is designed according to Eurocodes. The frame is exposed to self-weight, snow, and wind actions. Lateral-torsional buckling appears to represent the most critical criterion, which is considered as a basis for the limit state function. In the reliability analysis, the probabilistic models proposed by the Joint Committee for Structural Safety (JCSS are used for basic variables. The uncertainty model coefficients take into account the inaccuracy of the resistance model for the haunched girder and the inaccuracy of the action effect model. The time invariant reliability analysis is based on Turkstra's rule for combinations of snow and wind actions. The time variant analysis describes snow and wind actions by jump processes with intermittencies. Assuming a 50-year lifetime, the obtained values of the reliability index b vary within the range from 3.95 up to 5.56. The cross-profile IPE 330 designed according to Eurocodes seems to be adequate. It appears that the time invariant reliability analysis based on Turkstra's rule provides considerably lower values of b than those obtained by the time variant analysis.

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

2015-12-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

A method of predicting the reliability of CDM coil insulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kytasty, A.; Ogle, C.; Arrendale, H.

1992-01-01

This paper presents a method of predicting the reliability of the Collider Dipole Magnet (CDM) coil insulation design. The method proposes a probabilistic treatment of electrical test data, stress analysis, material properties variability and loading uncertainties to give the reliability estimate. The approach taken to predict reliability of design related failure modes of the CDM is to form analytical models of the various possible failure modes and their related mechanisms or causes, and then statistically assess the contributions of the various contributing variables. The probability of the failure mode occurring is interpreted as the number of times one would expect certain extreme situations to combine and randomly occur. One of the more complex failure modes of the CDM will be used to illustrate this methodology

Probabilistic brains: knowns and unknowns

Science.gov (United States)

Pouget, Alexandre; Beck, Jeffrey M; Ma, Wei Ji; Latham, Peter E

2015-01-01

There is strong behavioral and physiological evidence that the brain both represents probability distributions and performs probabilistic inference. Computational neuroscientists have started to shed light on how these probabilistic representations and computations might be implemented in neural circuits. One particularly appealing aspect of these theories is their generality: they can be used to model a wide range of tasks, from sensory processing to high-level cognition. To date, however, these theories have only been applied to very simple tasks. Here we discuss the challenges that will emerge as researchers start focusing their efforts on real-life computations, with a focus on probabilistic learning, structural learning and approximate inference. PMID:23955561

Probabilistic simple sticker systems

Science.gov (United States)

Selvarajoo, Mathuri; Heng, Fong Wan; Sarmin, Nor Haniza; Turaev, Sherzod

2017-04-01

A model for DNA computing using the recombination behavior of DNA molecules, known as a sticker system, was introduced by by L. Kari, G. Paun, G. Rozenberg, A. Salomaa, and S. Yu in the paper entitled DNA computing, sticker systems and universality from the journal of Acta Informatica vol. 35, pp. 401-420 in the year 1998. A sticker system uses the Watson-Crick complementary feature of DNA molecules: starting from the incomplete double stranded sequences, and iteratively using sticking operations until a complete double stranded sequence is obtained. It is known that sticker systems with finite sets of axioms and sticker rules generate only regular languages. Hence, different types of restrictions have been considered to increase the computational power of sticker systems. Recently, a variant of restricted sticker systems, called probabilistic sticker systems, has been introduced [4]. In this variant, the probabilities are initially associated with the axioms, and the probability of a generated string is computed by multiplying the probabilities of all occurrences of the initial strings in the computation of the string. Strings for the language are selected according to some probabilistic requirements. In this paper, we study fundamental properties of probabilistic simple sticker systems. We prove that the probabilistic enhancement increases the computational power of simple sticker systems.

Non-utility generation and demand management reliability of customer delivery systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamoud, G.A.; Wang, L.

1995-01-01

A probabilistic methodology for evaluating the impact of non-utility generation (NUG) and demand management programs (DMP) on supply reliability of customer delivery systems was presented. The proposed method was based on the criteria that the supply reliability to the customers on the delivery system should not be affected by the integration of either NUG or DMPs. The method considered station load profile, load forecast, and uncertainty in size and availability of the nuio. Impacts on system reliability were expressed in terms of possible delays of the in-service date for new facilities or in terms of an increase in the system load carrying capability. Examples to illustrate the proposed methodology were provided. 10 refs., 8 tabs., 2 figs

Probabilistic modelling and analysis of stand-alone hybrid power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lujano-Rojas, Juan M.; Dufo-López, Rodolfo; Bernal-Agustín, José L.

2013-01-01

As a part of the Hybrid Intelligent Algorithm, a model based on an ANN (artificial neural network) has been proposed in this paper to represent hybrid system behaviour considering the uncertainty related to wind speed and solar radiation, battery bank lifetime, and fuel prices. The Hybrid Intelligent Algorithm suggests a combination of probabilistic analysis based on a Monte Carlo simulation approach and artificial neural network training embedded in a genetic algorithm optimisation model. The installation of a typical hybrid system was analysed. Probabilistic analysis was used to generate an input–output dataset of 519 samples that was later used to train the ANNs to reduce the computational effort required. The generalisation ability of the ANNs was measured in terms of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), MBE (Mean Bias Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), and R-squared estimators using another data group of 200 samples. The results obtained from the estimation of the expected energy not supplied, the probability of a determined reliability level, and the estimation of expected value of net present cost show that the presented model is able to represent the main characteristics of a typical hybrid power system under uncertain operating conditions. - Highlights: • This paper presents a probabilistic model for stand-alone hybrid power system. • The model considers the main sources of uncertainty related to renewable resources. • The Hybrid Intelligent Algorithm has been applied to represent hybrid system behaviour. • The installation of a typical hybrid system was analysed. • The results obtained from the study case validate the presented model

Human actions in the pre-operational probabilistic safety analysis of Juragua Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferro, R.

1995-01-01

Human error is one of the main contributors to the biggest industrial disasters that the world has suffered in the last years. Safety probabilistic analysis techniques allow to consider, in the some study, the contribution of a facility's mechanical and human components safety, this guaranteeing a move integral assessment of these two factors although the PSA study of Juragua Nuclear Power Plant is carried out at a preoperational stage which causes important information limitations fos assessment of human reliability some considerations and suppositions in order to conduct treatment of human actions this stage were adopted. The present work describes the projected targets, approach applied and results obtained from the lakes of human reliability of this study

Probabilistic numerical discrimination in mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Berkay, Dilara; Çavdaroğlu, Bilgehan; Balcı, Fuat

2016-03-01

Previous studies showed that both human and non-human animals can discriminate between different quantities (i.e., time intervals, numerosities) with a limited level of precision due to their endogenous/representational uncertainty. In addition, other studies have shown that subjects can modulate their temporal categorization responses adaptively by incorporating information gathered regarding probabilistic contingencies into their time-based decisions. Despite the psychophysical similarities between the interval timing and nonverbal counting functions, the sensitivity of count-based decisions to probabilistic information remains an unanswered question. In the current study, we investigated whether exogenous probabilistic information can be integrated into numerosity-based judgments by mice. In the task employed in this study, reward was presented either after few (i.e., 10) or many (i.e., 20) lever presses, the last of which had to be emitted on the lever associated with the corresponding trial type. In order to investigate the effect of probabilistic information on performance in this task, we manipulated the relative frequency of different trial types across different experimental conditions. We evaluated the behavioral performance of the animals under models that differed in terms of their assumptions regarding the cost of responding (e.g., logarithmically increasing vs. no response cost). Our results showed for the first time that mice could adaptively modulate their count-based decisions based on the experienced probabilistic contingencies in directions predicted by optimality.

Nuclear reactor component populations, reliability data bases, and their relationship to failure rate estimation and uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F.; Beckman, R.J.

1981-12-01

Probabilistic risk analyses are used to assess the risks inherent in the operation of existing and proposed nuclear power reactors. In performing such risk analyses the failure rates of various components which are used in a variety of reactor systems must be estimated. These failure rate estimates serve as input to fault trees and event trees used in the analyses. Component failure rate estimation is often based on relevant field failure data from different reliability data sources such as LERs, NPRDS, and the In-Plant Data Program. Various statistical data analysis and estimation methods have been proposed over the years to provide the required estimates of the component failure rates. This report discusses the basis and extent to which statistical methods can be used to obtain component failure rate estimates. The report is expository in nature and focuses on the general philosophical basis for such statistical methods. Various terms and concepts are defined and illustrated by means of numerous simple examples

Probabilistic Programming (Invited Talk)

OpenAIRE

Yang, Hongseok

2017-01-01

Probabilistic programming refers to the idea of using standard programming constructs for specifying probabilistic models from machine learning and statistics, and employing generic inference algorithms for answering various queries on these models, such as posterior inference and estimation of model evidence. Although this idea itself is not new and was, in fact, explored by several programming-language and statistics researchers in the early 2000, it is only in the last few years that proba...

The Role of Probabilistic Design Analysis Methods in Safety and Affordability

Science.gov (United States)

Safie, Fayssal M.

2016-01-01

For the last several years, NASA and its contractors have been working together to build space launch systems to commercialize space. Developing commercial affordable and safe launch systems becomes very important and requires a paradigm shift. This paradigm shift enforces the need for an integrated systems engineering environment where cost, safety, reliability, and performance need to be considered to optimize the launch system design. In such an environment, rule based and deterministic engineering design practices alone may not be sufficient to optimize margins and fault tolerance to reduce cost. As a result, introduction of Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) methods to support the current deterministic engineering design practices becomes a necessity to reduce cost without compromising reliability and safety. This paper discusses the importance of PDA methods in NASA's new commercial environment, their applications, and the key role they can play in designing reliable, safe, and affordable launch systems. More specifically, this paper discusses: 1) The involvement of NASA in PDA 2) Why PDA is needed 3) A PDA model structure 4) A PDA example application 5) PDA link to safety and affordability.

Probabilistic Harmonic Modeling of Wind Power Plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guest, Emerson; Jensen, Kim H.; Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg

2017-01-01

A probabilistic sequence domain (SD) harmonic model of a grid-connected voltage-source converter is used to estimate harmonic emissions in a wind power plant (WPP) comprised of Type-IV wind turbines. The SD representation naturally partitioned converter generated voltage harmonics into those...... with deterministic phase and those with probabilistic phase. A case study performed on a string of ten 3MW, Type-IV wind turbines implemented in PSCAD was used to verify the probabilistic SD harmonic model. The probabilistic SD harmonic model can be employed in the planning phase of WPP projects to assess harmonic...

Topics in Probabilistic Judgment Aggregation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Guanchun

2011-01-01

This dissertation is a compilation of several studies that are united by their relevance to probabilistic judgment aggregation. In the face of complex and uncertain events, panels of judges are frequently consulted to provide probabilistic forecasts, and aggregation of such estimates in groups often yield better results than could have been made…

A logic for inductive probabilistic reasoning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2005-01-01

Inductive probabilistic reasoning is understood as the application of inference patterns that use statistical background information to assign (subjective) probabilities to single events. The simplest such inference pattern is direct inference: from '70% of As are Bs" and "a is an A" infer...... that a is a B with probability 0.7. Direct inference is generalized by Jeffrey's rule and the principle of cross-entropy minimization. To adequately formalize inductive probabilistic reasoning is an interesting topic for artificial intelligence, as an autonomous system acting in a complex environment may have...... to base its actions on a probabilistic model of its environment, and the probabilities needed to form this model can often be obtained by combining statistical background information with particular observations made, i.e., by inductive probabilistic reasoning. In this paper a formal framework...

A convergence theory for probabilistic metric spaces | Jäger ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We develop a theory of probabilistic convergence spaces based on Tardiff's neighbourhood systems for probabilistic metric spaces. We show that the resulting category is a topological universe and we characterize a subcategory that is isomorphic to the category of probabilistic metric spaces. Keywords: Probabilistic metric ...

System reliability time-dependent models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Debernardo, H.D.

1991-06-01

A probabilistic methodology for safety system technical specification evaluation was developed. The method for Surveillance Test Interval (S.T.I.) evaluation basically means an optimization of S.T.I. of most important system's periodically tested components. For Allowed Outage Time (A.O.T.) calculations, the method uses system reliability time-dependent models (A computer code called FRANTIC III). A new approximation, which was called Independent Minimal Cut Sets (A.C.I.), to compute system unavailability was also developed. This approximation is better than Rare Event Approximation (A.E.R.) and the extra computing cost is neglectible. A.C.I. was joined to FRANTIC III to replace A.E.R. on future applications. The case study evaluations verified that this methodology provides a useful probabilistic assessment of surveillance test intervals and allowed outage times for many plant components. The studied system is a typical configuration of nuclear power plant safety systems (two of three logic). Because of the good results, these procedures will be used by the Argentine nuclear regulatory authorities in evaluation of technical specification of Atucha I and Embalse nuclear power plant safety systems. (Author) [es

Probabilistic versus deterministic hazard assessment in liquefaction susceptible zones

Science.gov (United States)

Daminelli, Rosastella; Gerosa, Daniele; Marcellini, Alberto; Tento, Alberto

2015-04-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), usually adopted in the framework of seismic codes redaction, is based on Poissonian description of the temporal occurrence, negative exponential distribution of magnitude and attenuation relationship with log-normal distribution of PGA or response spectrum. The main positive aspect of this approach stems into the fact that is presently a standard for the majority of countries, but there are weak points in particular regarding the physical description of the earthquake phenomenon. Factors like site effects, source characteristics like duration of the strong motion and directivity that could significantly influence the expected motion at the site are not taken into account by PSHA. Deterministic models can better evaluate the ground motion at a site from a physical point of view, but its prediction reliability depends on the degree of knowledge of the source, wave propagation and soil parameters. We compare these two approaches in selected sites affected by the May 2012 Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia earthquake, that caused widespread liquefaction phenomena unusually for magnitude less than 6. We focus on sites liquefiable because of their soil mechanical parameters and water table level. Our analysis shows that the choice between deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis is strongly dependent on site conditions. The looser the soil and the higher the liquefaction potential, the more suitable is the deterministic approach. Source characteristics, in particular the duration of strong ground motion, have long since recognized as relevant to induce liquefaction; unfortunately a quantitative prediction of these parameters appears very unlikely, dramatically reducing the possibility of their adoption in hazard assessment. Last but not least, the economic factors are relevant in the choice of the approach. The case history of 2012 Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia earthquake, with an officially estimated cost of 6 billions

Structural Reliability Using Probability Density Estimation Methods Within NESSUS

Science.gov (United States)

Chamis, Chrisos C. (Technical Monitor); Godines, Cody Ric

2003-01-01

A reliability analysis studies a mathematical model of a physical system taking into account uncertainties of design variables and common results are estimations of a response density, which also implies estimations of its parameters. Some common density parameters include the mean value, the standard deviation, and specific percentile(s) of the response, which are measures of central tendency, variation, and probability regions, respectively. Reliability analyses are important since the results can lead to different designs by calculating the probability of observing safe responses in each of the proposed designs. All of this is done at the expense of added computational time as compared to a single deterministic analysis which will result in one value of the response out of many that make up the density of the response. Sampling methods, such as monte carlo (MC) and latin hypercube sampling (LHS), can be used to perform reliability analyses and can compute nonlinear response density parameters even if the response is dependent on many random variables. Hence, both methods are very robust; however, they are computationally expensive to use in the estimation of the response density parameters. Both methods are 2 of 13 stochastic methods that are contained within the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) program. NESSUS is a probabilistic finite element analysis (FEA) program that was developed through funding from NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). It has the additional capability of being linked to other analysis programs; therefore, probabilistic fluid dynamics, fracture mechanics, and heat transfer are only a few of what is possible with this software. The LHS method is the newest addition to the stochastic methods within NESSUS. Part of this work was to enhance NESSUS with the LHS method. The new LHS module is complete, has been successfully integrated with NESSUS, and been used to study four different test cases that have been

Nondestructive examination (NDE) reliability for inservice inspection of light water reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doctor, S.R.; Deffenbaugh, J.D.; Good, M.S.; Green, E.R.; Heasler, P.G.; Simonen, F.A.; Spanner, J.C.; Taylor, T.T.

1989-10-01

The Evaluation and Improvement of NDE Reliability for Inservice Inspection of Light Water Reactors (NDE Reliability) Program at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory was established by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to determine the reliability of current inservice inspection (ISI) techniques and to develop recommendations that will ensure a suitably high inspection reliability. The objectives of this program include determining the reliability of ISI performed on the primary systems of commercial light-water reactors (LWRs); using probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis to determine the impact of NDE unreliability on system safety; and evaluating reliability improvement that can be achieved with improved and advanced technology. A final objective is to formulate recommended revisions to ASME Code and Regulatory requirements based on material properties, service conditions, and NDE capabilities and uncertainties. The program scope is limited to ISI of the primary systems including the piping, vessel, and other inspected components. This is a progress report covering the programmatic work from October 1987 through March 1988. 21 refs., 28 figs., 2 tabs

Nondestructive examination (NDE) reliability for inservice inspection of light waters reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doctor, S.R.; Deffenbaugh, J.D.; Good, M.S.; Green, E.R.; Heasler, P.G.; Simonen, F.A.; Spanner, J.C.; Taylor, T.T.

1989-11-01

Evaluation and Improvement of NDE Reliability for Inservice Inspection of Light Water Reactors (NDE Reliability) Program at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory was established by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to determine the reliability of current inservice inspection (ISI) techniques and to develop recommendations that will ensure a suitably high inspection reliability. The objectives of this program include determining the reliability of ISI performed on the primary systems of commercial light-water reactors (LWRs); using probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis to determine the impact of NDE unreliability on system safety; and evaluating reliability improvements that can be achieved with improved and advanced technology. A final objective is to formulate recommended revisions to ASME Code and Regulatory requirements, based on material properties, service conditions, and NDE uncertainties. The program scope is limited to ISI of the primary systems including the piping, vessel, and other inspected components. This is a progress report covering the programmatic work from April 1988 through September 1988. 33 refs., 70 figs., 12 tabs

Nondestructive Examination (NDE) Reliability for Inservice Inspection of Light Water Reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doctor, S.R.; Diaz, A.A.; Friley, J.R.

1993-09-01

The Evaluation and Improvement of NDE Reliability for Inservice Inspection of Light Water Reactors (NDE Reliability) Program at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory was established by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to determine the reliability of current inservice inspection (ISI) techniques and to develop recommendations that will ensure a suitably high inspection reliability. The objectives of this program include determining the reliability of ISI performed on the primary systems of commercial light-water reactors (LWRs); using probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis to determine the impact of NDE unreliability on system safety; and evaluating reliability improvements that can be achieved with improved and advanced technology. A final objective is to formulate recommended revisions to ASME Code and Regulatory requirements, based on material properties, service conditions, and NDE uncertainties. The program scope is limited to ISI of the primary systems including the piping, vessel, and other components inspected in accordance with Section XI of the ASME Code. This is a progress report covering the programmatic work from October 1991 through March 1992

The effects of spatial variability of the aggressiveness of soil on system reliability of corroding underground pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahraoui, Yacine; Chateauneuf, Alaa

2016-01-01

In this paper, a probabilistic methodology is presented for assessing the time-variant reliability of corroded underground pipelines subjected to space-variant soil aggressiveness. The Karhunen-Loève expansion is used to model the spatial variability of soil as a correlated stochastic field. The pipeline is considered as a series system for which the component and system failure probabilities are computed by Monte Carlo simulations. The probabilistic model provides a realistic time and space modelling of stochastic variations, leading to appropriate estimation of the lifetime distribution. The numerical analyses allow us to investigate the impact of various parameters on the reliability of underground pipelines, such as the soil aggressiveness, the pipe design variables, the soil correlation length and the pipeline length. The results show that neglecting the effect of spatial variability leads to pessimistic estimation of the residual lifetime and can lead to condemn prematurely the structure. - Highlights: • The role of soil heterogeneity in pipeline reliability assessment has been shown. • The impact of pipe length and soil correlation length has been examined. • The effect of the uncertainties related to design variables has been observed. • Pipe thickness design for homogeneous reliability has been proposed.

Arbitrage and Hedging in a non probabilistic framework

OpenAIRE

Alvarez, Alexander; Ferrando, Sebastian; Olivares, Pablo

2011-01-01

The paper studies the concepts of hedging and arbitrage in a non probabilistic framework. It provides conditions for non probabilistic arbitrage based on the topological structure of the trajectory space and makes connections with the usual notion of arbitrage. Several examples illustrate the non probabilistic arbitrage as well perfect replication of options under continuous and discontinuous trajectories, the results can then be applied in probabilistic models path by path. The approach is r...

Serviceability design load factors and reliability assessments for reinforced concrete containment structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han Bong Koo

1998-01-01

A reinforced concrete nuclear power plant containment structure is subjected to various random static and stochastic loads during its lifetime. Since these loads involve inherent randomness and other uncertainties, an appropriate probabilistic model for each load must be established in order to perform reliability analysis. The current ASME code for reinforced concrete containment structures are not based on probability concepts. The stochastic nature of natural hazard or accidental loads and the variations of material properties require a probabilistic approach for a rational assessment of structural safety and performance. The paper develops probability-based load factors for the limit state design of reinforced concrete containment structures. The purpose of constructing reinforced concrete containment structure is to protect against radioactive release, and so the use of a serviceability limit state against crack failure that can cause the emission of radioactive materials is suggested as a critical limit state for reinforced concrete containment structures. Load factors for the design of reinforced concrete containment structures are proposed and carried out the reliability assessments. (orig.)

Probabilistic approach to the prediction of radioactive contamination of agricultural production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fesenko, S.F.; Chernyaeva, L.G.; Sanzharova, N.I.; Aleksakhin, R.M.

1993-01-01

The organization of agricultural production on the territory contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl reactor disaster involves prediction of the content of radionuclides in agro-industrial products. Traditional methods of prediting the contamination in the products does not give sufficient agreement with actual data and as a result it is difficult to make the necessary decisions about eliminating the consequences of the disaster in the agro-industrial complex. In many ways this is because the available methods are based on data on the radionuclide content in soils, plants, and plant and animal products. The parameters of the models used in the prediction are also evaluated on the basis of these results. Even if obtained from a single field or herd of livestock, however, such indicators have substantial variation coefficients due to various factors such as the spatial structure of the fallouts, the variability of the soil properties, the sampling error, the errors of processing and measuring the samples, and well as the data-averaging error. Consequently the parameters of the radionuclide transfer along the agricultural chains are very variable, thus considerably reducing the reliability of predicted values. The reliability of the prediction of radioactive contamination of agricultural products can be increased substantially by taking a probabilistic approach involving information about the random laws of contamination of farming land and the statistical features of the parameters of radionuclie migration along food chains. Considering the above, comparative analysis is made of the results obtained on the basis of the traditional treatment (deterministic in the simplest form) and its probabilistic analog

Spatial reliability analysis of a wind turbine blade cross section subjected to multi-axial extreme loading

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov; Bitsche, Robert; Blasques, José Pedro Albergaria Amaral

2017-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for structural reliability analysis of wind turbine blades. The study introduces several novel elements by taking into account loading direction using a multiaxial probabilistic load model, considering random material strength, spatial correlation between material...... properties, progressive material failure, and system reliability effects. An example analysis of reliability against material failure is demonstrated for a blade cross section. Based on the study we discuss the implications of using a system reliability approach, the effect of spatial correlation length......, type of material degradation algorithm, and reliability methods on the system failure probability, as well as the main factors that have an influence on the reliability. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....