WorldWideScience

Sample records for series population trends

  1. Temporal trend of carpal tunnel release surgery: a population-based time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naif Fnais

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Carpal tunnel release (CTR is among the most common hand surgeries, although little is known about its pattern. In this study, we aimed to investigate temporal trends, age and gender variation and current practice patterns in CTR surgeries. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis among over 13 million residents of Ontario, who underwent operative management for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS from April 1, 1992 to March 31, 2010 using administrative claims data. RESULTS: The primary analysis revealed a fairly stable procedure rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population per year receiving CTRs without any significant, consistent temporal trend (p = 0.94. Secondary analyses revealed different trends in procedure rates according to age. The annual procedure rate among those age >75 years increased from 22 per 10,000 population at the beginning of the study period to over 26 patients per 10,000 population (p<0.01 by the end of the study period. CTR surgical procedures were approximately two-fold more common among females relative to males (64.9% vs. 35.1 respectively; p<0.01. Lastly, CTR procedures are increasingly being conducted in the outpatient setting while procedures in the inpatient setting have been declining steadily - the proportion of procedures performed in the outpatient setting increased from 13% to over 30% by 2010 (p<0.01. CONCLUSION: Overall, CTR surgical-procedures are conducted at a rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population annually with significant variation with respect to age and gender. CTR surgical procedures in ambulatory-care facilities may soon outpace procedure rates in the in-hospital setting.

  2. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  3. Iowa Population Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait, John L.; Johnson, Arthur H.

    The trends in population distribution and the composition of Iowa's population are reported in this document in order to provide the leaders and citizens of Iowa with information to assist them in making decisions relating to growth and development. Birth and death rates, rural and urban residence, population by race, and age structure are…

  4. [Population trends and poverty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmedo, C

    1998-04-01

    Implications of population growth in Ecuador for the quality of life of the poor population are analyzed. It is argued that if the gross national product (GNP) were to grow at a sustained annual rate of 5% or more, demographic trends would not present a significant obstacle to reducing poverty. National economic projections are for growth of only 2.5-3.5% annually. The continuing rapid growth of the poor population despite general slowing of demographic growth, the young age structure, the need for increased formal education to enable the poor to overcome their poverty, and the effect of unemployment on the dependency ratio will tend to hamper improvements in average productivity and per capita GNP. The need for spending on education, health, basic services, and housing will divert funds away from productive investment, generating a direct negative impact on economic growth. Over half of Ecuadorian children suffer from some degree of malnutrition, indicating that food production is inadequate to meet demand. The export-oriented agricultural policy and poor weather have led to a chronic shortage of basic foods. Progressive increase and diversification of agricultural production, along with maintenance of low prices and substantial increases in income levels and agricultural productivity, will be required if the entire population is to be fed adequately. Intense efforts will be needed from all sectors to bring demographic growth into balance with economic and development needs.

  5. Association between smoking and alcohol-related behaviours: a time-series analysis of population trends in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beard, Emma; West, Robert; Michie, Susan; Brown, Jamie

    2017-10-01

    This paper estimates how far monthly changes in prevalence of cigarette smoking, motivation to quit and attempts to stop smoking have been associated with changes in prevalence of high-risk drinking, and motivation and attempts to reduce alcohol consumption in England. Data were used from the Alcohol and Smoking Toolkit Studies between April 2014 and June 2016. These involve monthly household face-to-face surveys of representative samples of ~1700 adults in England. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous Input (ARIMAX) modelling was used to assess the association over time between monthly prevalence of (a) smoking and high-risk drinking; (b) high motivation to quit smoking and high motivation to reduce alcohol consumption; and (c) attempts to quit smoking and attempts to reduce alcohol consumption. Mean smoking prevalence over the study period was 18.6% and high-risk drinking prevalence was 13.0%. A decrease of 1% of the series mean smoking prevalence was associated with a reduction of 0.185% of the mean prevalence of high-risk drinking 2 months later [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.033 to 0.337, P = 0.017]. A statistically significant association was not found between prevalence of high motivation to quit smoking and high motivation to reduce alcohol consumption (β = 0.324, 95% CI = -0.371 to 1.019, P = 0.360) or prevalence of attempts to quit smoking and attempts to reduce alcohol consumption (β = -0.026, 95% CI = -1.348 to 1.296, P = 0.969). Between 2014 and 2016, monthly changes in prevalence of smoking in England were associated positively with prevalence of high-risk drinking. There was no significant association between motivation to stop and motivation to reduce alcohol consumption, or attempts to quit smoking and attempts to reduce alcohol consumption. © 2017 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction.

  6. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

  7. 30-Year Trends in Stroke Rates and Outcome in Auckland, New Zealand (1981-2012: A Multi-Ethnic Population-Based Series of Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valery L Feigin

    Full Text Available Insufficient data exist on population-based trends in morbidity and mortality to determine the success of prevention strategies and improvements in health care delivery in stroke. The aim of this study was to determine trends in incidence and outcome (1-year mortality, 28-day case-fatality in relation to management and risk factors for stroke in the multi-ethnic population of Auckland, New Zealand (NZ over 30-years.Four stroke incidence population-based register studies were undertaken in adult residents (aged ≥15 years of Auckland NZ in 1981-1982, 1991-1992, 2002-2003 and 2011-2012. All used standard World Health Organization (WHO diagnostic criteria and multiple overlapping sources of case-ascertainment for hospitalised and non-hospitalised, fatal and non-fatal, new stroke events. Ethnicity was consistently self-identified into four major groups. Crude and age-adjusted (WHO world population standard annual incidence and mortality with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated per 100,000 people, assuming a Poisson distribution.5400 new stroke patients were registered in four 12 month recruitment phases over the 30-year study period; 79% were NZ/European, 6% Māori, 8% Pacific people, and 7% were of Asian or other origin. Overall stroke incidence and 1-year mortality decreased by 23% (95% CI 5%-31% and 62% (95% CI 36%-86%, respectively, from 1981 to 2012. Whilst stroke incidence and mortality declined across all groups in NZ from 1991, Māori and Pacific groups had the slowest rate of decline and continue to experience stroke at a significantly younger age (mean ages 60 and 62 years, respectively compared with NZ/Europeans (mean age 75 years. There was also a decline in 28-day stroke case fatality (overall by 14%, 95% CI 11%-17% across all ethnic groups from 1981 to 2012. However, there were significant increases in the frequencies of pre-morbid hypertension, myocardial infarction, and diabetes mellitus, but a reduction in

  8. 30-Year Trends in Stroke Rates and Outcome in Auckland, New Zealand (1981-2012): A Multi-Ethnic Population-Based Series of Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feigin, Valery L; Krishnamurthi, Rita V; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; McPherson, Kathryn M; Barber, P Alan; Parag, Varsha; Arroll, Bruce; Bennett, Derrick A; Tobias, Martin; Jones, Amy; Witt, Emma; Brown, Paul; Abbott, Max; Bhattacharjee, Rohit; Rush, Elaine; Suh, Flora Minsun; Theadom, Alice; Rathnasabapathy, Yogini; Te Ao, Braden; Parmar, Priya G; Anderson, Craig; Bonita, Ruth

    2015-01-01

    Insufficient data exist on population-based trends in morbidity and mortality to determine the success of prevention strategies and improvements in health care delivery in stroke. The aim of this study was to determine trends in incidence and outcome (1-year mortality, 28-day case-fatality) in relation to management and risk factors for stroke in the multi-ethnic population of Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) over 30-years. Four stroke incidence population-based register studies were undertaken in adult residents (aged ≥15 years) of Auckland NZ in 1981-1982, 1991-1992, 2002-2003 and 2011-2012. All used standard World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria and multiple overlapping sources of case-ascertainment for hospitalised and non-hospitalised, fatal and non-fatal, new stroke events. Ethnicity was consistently self-identified into four major groups. Crude and age-adjusted (WHO world population standard) annual incidence and mortality with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated per 100,000 people, assuming a Poisson distribution. 5400 new stroke patients were registered in four 12 month recruitment phases over the 30-year study period; 79% were NZ/European, 6% Māori, 8% Pacific people, and 7% were of Asian or other origin. Overall stroke incidence and 1-year mortality decreased by 23% (95% CI 5%-31%) and 62% (95% CI 36%-86%), respectively, from 1981 to 2012. Whilst stroke incidence and mortality declined across all groups in NZ from 1991, Māori and Pacific groups had the slowest rate of decline and continue to experience stroke at a significantly younger age (mean ages 60 and 62 years, respectively) compared with NZ/Europeans (mean age 75 years). There was also a decline in 28-day stroke case fatality (overall by 14%, 95% CI 11%-17%) across all ethnic groups from 1981 to 2012. However, there were significant increases in the frequencies of pre-morbid hypertension, myocardial infarction, and diabetes mellitus, but a reduction in frequency

  9. 30-Year Trends in Stroke Rates and Outcome in Auckland, New Zealand (1981-2012): A Multi-Ethnic Population-Based Series of Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feigin, Valery L.; Krishnamurthi, Rita V.; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; McPherson, Kathryn M.; Barber, P. Alan; Parag, Varsha; Arroll, Bruce; Bennett, Derrick A.; Tobias, Martin; Jones, Amy; Witt, Emma; Brown, Paul; Abbott, Max; Bhattacharjee, Rohit; Rush, Elaine; Suh, Flora Minsun; Theadom, Alice; Rathnasabapathy, Yogini; Te Ao, Braden; Parmar, Priya G.; Anderson, Craig; Bonita, Ruth

    2015-01-01

    Background Insufficient data exist on population-based trends in morbidity and mortality to determine the success of prevention strategies and improvements in health care delivery in stroke. The aim of this study was to determine trends in incidence and outcome (1-year mortality, 28-day case-fatality) in relation to management and risk factors for stroke in the multi-ethnic population of Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) over 30-years. Methods Four stroke incidence population-based register studies were undertaken in adult residents (aged ≥15 years) of Auckland NZ in 1981–1982, 1991–1992, 2002–2003 and 2011–2012. All used standard World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria and multiple overlapping sources of case-ascertainment for hospitalised and non-hospitalised, fatal and non-fatal, new stroke events. Ethnicity was consistently self-identified into four major groups. Crude and age-adjusted (WHO world population standard) annual incidence and mortality with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated per 100,000 people, assuming a Poisson distribution. Results 5400 new stroke patients were registered in four 12 month recruitment phases over the 30-year study period; 79% were NZ/European, 6% Māori, 8% Pacific people, and 7% were of Asian or other origin. Overall stroke incidence and 1-year mortality decreased by 23% (95% CI 5%-31%) and 62% (95% CI 36%-86%), respectively, from 1981 to 2012. Whilst stroke incidence and mortality declined across all groups in NZ from 1991, Māori and Pacific groups had the slowest rate of decline and continue to experience stroke at a significantly younger age (mean ages 60 and 62 years, respectively) compared with NZ/Europeans (mean age 75 years). There was also a decline in 28-day stroke case fatality (overall by 14%, 95% CI 11%-17%) across all ethnic groups from 1981 to 2012. However, there were significant increases in the frequencies of pre-morbid hypertension, myocardial infarction, and diabetes

  10. Population. Headline Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Valerie K.

    Useful as background reading or secondary classroom material, this pamphlet reviews several dimensions of world population growth and control. The first of seven chapters, World Population Growth: Past, Present and Future, discusses some of the reasons for the greatly accelerated growth since 1950, and points out that even significantly rapid…

  11. Population exposure to ultraviolet radiation in Finland 1920-1995: Exposure trends and a time-series analysis of exposure and cutaneous melanoma incidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojo, Katja; Jansen, Christer T.; Nybom, Pia; Huurto, Laura; Laihia, Jarmo; Ilus, Taina; Auvinen, Anssi

    2006-01-01

    Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is the principal cause of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). However, the relation between CMM and UVR exposure is not clear. We present the trends of population exposure to UVR and conduct a time-series analysis of the relation between UVR exposure and incidence of CMM. Data on CMM incidence were obtained from the Finnish Cancer Registry. Clothing coverage of the body was scored from archival photographs and the proportion of uncovered skin was used as a measure of solar exposure. Information on the number of sunny resort holidays, duration of annual holidays, and sunscreen sales were obtained from various sources. Exposed skin area doubled from 1920 to 1985. The average duration of annual holidays increased 30-fold. The number of sunny resort holidays and the sales of sunscreens increased rapidly from 1980. CMM was most strongly associated with solar exposure of 5-19 years earlier. There is a considerable decrease in clothing coverage during the 20th century. UVR exposure preceding CMM occurrence 4 years or less does not appear relevant, whereas the period 5-19 years prior to CMM occurrence might be the most relevant period. However, findings of ecological studies may not be applicable at the individual level

  12. Global fertility and population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongaarts, John

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the world and most countries have undergone unprecedented demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the rise in human numbers, and there are also important trends in fertility, family structure, mortality, migration, urbanization, and population aging. This paper summarizes past trends and projections in fertility and population. After reaching 2.5 billion in 1950, the world population grew rapidly to 7.2 billion in 2013 and the projections expect this total to be 10.9 billion by 2100. World regions differ widely in their demographic trends, with rapid population growth and high fertility continuing in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, while population decline, population aging, and very low fertility are now a key concern in many developed countries. These trends have important implications for human welfare and are of interest to policy makers. The conclusion comments briefly on policy options to address these adverse trends. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  13. Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Magera

    Full Text Available Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1 publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2 abundance trends and recovery status, and (3 historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%, Significantly Decreasing (10%, Non-Significant Change (28% and Unknown (20%. Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47, larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular

  14. Modern population trends in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abul-basher, M M

    1985-01-01

    Population growth trends in Bangladesh in the 1871-1981 period were analyzed, with emphasis on fertility and mortality differentials, to provide a basis for population planning. Following proclamation of British Imperial Rule in 1857, mortality rates in Bangladesh began to decline as a result of preventive measures against natural disasters such as draught and famine, but the fertility rate remained unaltered. The demographic pattern was unstable over time, reflecting the impact of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, war, migration, and economic development. Population growth accelerated greatly during the 1961-74 period, when industrialization emerged and job opportunities were created in the urban centers. Economic hardship, food shortages, and the introduction of family planning curbed urban growth drastically and total growth to some extent in 1974-81. On the average, growth has been higher in the Dhaka and Chittagong Divisions of Bangladesh than in the Khulna and Rajshahi Divisions. Differences in population growth among the regions are attributable largely to internal and external migration. The regression polynomial model best fits past population trends in Bangladesh and can reproduce the observed population by 99.60%. This polynomial is most suitable for graduation and prediction of population trends.

  15. Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population density grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's...

  16. Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

    2008-05-01

    Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

  17. Recent and prospective population trends in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, G W; Tan, P C

    1985-09-01

    Recent population trends in Malaysia are reviewed, with the focus on Peninsular Malaysia. Separate consideration is given to population growth between 1970 and 1980; mortality trends; period and cohort fertility trends; factors affecting fertility, including changes in age structure, nuptiality, and other socioeconomic and demographic changes; and the recent development of a pro-natalist policy involving a goal of a population of 70 million by 2050.

  18. Population Trends and the Status of Population Policy in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogge, John R.

    1982-01-01

    The major trend towards worldwide easing of the birthrate does not include the current population patterns in Africa. The population policies of African nations range along a continuum from totally pronatal to strongly antinatal. However, even antinatal policies have had little effect on the overall spiralling upward population trend. (JA)

  19. Trends in College Pricing, 2011. Trends in Higher Education Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Sandy; Ma, Jennifer

    2011-01-01

    The published prices on which the analysis in "Trends in College Pricing" is based come from data reported by institutions on the College Board's Annual Survey of Colleges. This survey, which is distributed to nearly 4,000 postsecondary institutions across the country, collects a wealth of data on enrollment, admission, degrees and majors,…

  20. Trends in College Pricing, 2013. Trends in Higher Education Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Sandy; Ma, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    Concerns about rising tuition and how students can afford to finance their major investments in postsecondary education are widespread. Solid insights into these questions require accurate and up-to-date information about prices. "Trends in College Pricing, 2013" reports on the prices charged by colleges and universities in 2013-14, how…

  1. [Recent population trends in the Swiss Alps].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billet, J; Rougier, H

    1984-01-01

    Recent demographic trends in the Alpine areas of Switzerland are examined. Areas of population loss and gain are identified, and the importance of tourism for areas experiencing population growth is established. Efforts to support the demographic and economic viability of mountain areas are described.

  2. On the Use of Running Trends as Summary Statistics for Univariate Time Series and Time Series Association

    OpenAIRE

    Trottini, Mario; Vigo, Isabel; Belda, Santiago

    2015-01-01

    Given a time series, running trends analysis (RTA) involves evaluating least squares trends over overlapping time windows of L consecutive time points, with overlap by all but one observation. This produces a new series called the “running trends series,” which is used as summary statistics of the original series for further analysis. In recent years, RTA has been widely used in climate applied research as summary statistics for time series and time series association. There is no doubt that ...

  3. Inferring population trends of Araucaria angustifolia (Araucariaceae ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Matrix population models may generate important information to prevent undesirable outcomes for endangered species. This is the case for Araucaria angustifolia, a Critically Endangered conifer, with little knowledge regarding its life history and trends in development over time. This study sought to investigate life-history ...

  4. United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan. Huang

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

  5. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  6. Global population trends and policy options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezeh, Alex C; Bongaarts, John; Mberu, Blessing

    2012-07-14

    Rapid population growth is a threat to wellbeing in the poorest countries, whereas very low fertility increasingly threatens the future welfare of many developed countries. The mapping of global trends in population growth from 2005-10 shows four distinct patterns. Most of the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are characterised by rapid growth of more than 2% per year. Moderate annual growth of 1-2% is concentrated in large countries, such as India and Indonesia, and across north Africa and western Latin America. Whereas most advanced-economy countries and large middle-income countries, such as China and Brazil, are characterised by low or no growth (0-1% per year), most of eastern Europe, Japan, and a few western European countries are characterised by population decline. Countries with rapid growth face adverse social, economic, and environmental pressures, whereas those with low or negative growth face rapid population ageing, unsustainable burdens on public pensions and health-care systems, and slow economic growth. Countries with rapid growth should consider the implementation of voluntary family planning programmes as their main policy option to reduce the high unmet need for contraception, unwanted pregnancies, and probirth reproductive norms. In countries with low or negative growth, policies to address ageing and very low fertility are still evolving. Further research into the potential effect of demographic policies on other social systems, social groups, and fertility decisions and trends is therefore recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Population trends around nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenberg, M.; Krueckeberg, D.A.; Kaltman, M.

    1984-01-01

    Site selection criteria used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission emphasize the selection of low population areas in which little growth is anticipated. This research examines population growth after site selection for the period 1960 to 1980 for forty-three operating sites. Substantial increments of population increase were found, only partially explained by national, regional, and host county growth trends impacting local host areas. These local components of change became especially important in the decade of the 1970s, when most of the plants were in full operation. The decade of the 1970s also saw a marked shift from the geographic pattern of growth of the 60s, when few plants were in operation. These larger and different growth components of the 1970s, also unexplained by preliminary analysis of correlation with coastal locations and degree of urbanization, are classified into categories with high potential and interest for further research

  8. Population and trends in the global mean temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2017-01-01

    The Fisher ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population

  9. World population trends in 1960-70.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabah, L; Kono, S

    1974-01-01

    burdens are associated with child-rearing while welfare for the aged is the great concern in the more developed areas of the world. The great trend toward urbanization in all parts of the world means that the population problems commanding greatest attention are those associated with large and fast-growing cities.

  10. Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

    2015-12-01

    OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

  11. Analysis of three amphibian populations with quarter-century long time-series.

    OpenAIRE

    Meyer, A H; Schimidt, B R; Grossenbacher, K

    1998-01-01

    Amphibians are in decline in many parts of the world. Long tme-series of amphibian populations are necessary to distinguish declines from the often strong fluctuations observed in natural populations. Time-series may also help to understand the causes of these declines. We analysed 23-28-year long time-series of the frog Rana temporaria. Only one of the three studied populations showed a negative trend which was probably caused by the introduction of fish. Two populations appeared to be densi...

  12. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  13. Women, population and development trends since 1984.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, H

    1989-01-01

    This paper review progress over the past 5 years with respect to the 6 recommendations adopted at the International Conference on Population 1984, which specifically address the situation of women. They include: 1) integrating women into development, 2) women's economic participation, 3) education, training, and employment, 4) raising the age at marriage, 5) the active involvement of men in all areas of family responsibility, and 6) the ratification of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women. Several important areas potentially relevant to population issues which were omitted from the Conference recommendations are identified and discussed--namely, the situation of women (in particular, older women, women who are the sole supporters of families, and women and migration) and the situation of women in times of severe economic adversity. Finally, progress made with respect to data on women is highlighted, and caution is advised with respect to continued calls for new data. In contrast to the Nairobi Forward-Looking Strategies for the Advancement of Women, the recommendations are noted for implying an almost unresolvable conflict between women's biological and economic roles. However, it is pointed out that the goals of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women for full equality of men and women would require that the same choices be available to both sexes with respect to labor force participation. While it is too soon to have a clear perspective on the pace and direction of change during the past 5 years, the author finds it impossible to be optimistic about current trends because, in too many areas, progress regarding women has either stagnated or moved into reverse gear. The disappointing record is partially attributed to the tendency for policy makers to see the promotion of economic growth through sound economic policy and advancing the status of women as competing rather than

  14. United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

  15. Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

    2017-04-01

    This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Measurements of spatial population synchrony: influence of time series transformations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevalier, Mathieu; Laffaille, Pascal; Ferdy, Jean-Baptiste; Grenouillet, Gaël

    2015-09-01

    Two mechanisms have been proposed to explain spatial population synchrony: dispersal among populations, and the spatial correlation of density-independent factors (the "Moran effect"). To identify which of these two mechanisms is driving spatial population synchrony, time series transformations (TSTs) of abundance data have been used to remove the signature of one mechanism, and highlight the effect of the other. However, several issues with TSTs remain, and to date no consensus has emerged about how population time series should be handled in synchrony studies. Here, by using 3131 time series involving 34 fish species found in French rivers, we computed several metrics commonly used in synchrony studies to determine whether a large-scale climatic factor (temperature) influenced fish population dynamics at the regional scale, and to test the effect of three commonly used TSTs (detrending, prewhitening and a combination of both) on these metrics. We also tested whether the influence of TSTs on time series and population synchrony levels was related to the features of the time series using both empirical and simulated time series. For several species, and regardless of the TST used, we evidenced a Moran effect on freshwater fish populations. However, these results were globally biased downward by TSTs which reduced our ability to detect significant signals. Depending on the species and the features of the time series, we found that TSTs could lead to contradictory results, regardless of the metric considered. Finally, we suggest guidelines on how population time series should be processed in synchrony studies.

  17. Future Population Trends in China: 2005-2050

    OpenAIRE

    Chen Wei; Liu Jinju

    2009-01-01

    Using China's 2000 census data, this paper conducts population projection under different fertility scenarios to gauge the likely trends in China's future population change. The range of fertility assumptions captures the uncertainty of current fertility estimates as well as the likely trends under the family planning policy and economic development. Only one mortality scenario is applied and net international migration is assumed to be null in the population projection. Future life tables ar...

  18. Population trends in Malaysia: 1970-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Saharani Abdul; Ghani, Puzziawati Ab; Daud, Noorizam

    2014-12-01

    The size of population in Malaysia had reached 28.3 million in 2010 and is expected to increase to 38.6 million in the next 30 years. This demographic milestone that is causing renewed attention to the challenges caused by population growth. This paper looks at the last 40 years of changes in Malaysia population structure due to the changes in demographic phenomenon using data obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia. The principal finding of this research indicates that population structure in Malaysia had changed dramatically from the year 1970 to 2010. At the same time, Malaysia has completed its demographic transition in less than four decades. The fall in fertility and mortality rates have led to an improvement in the life expectancy of the population which has resulted an ageing population in Malaysia.

  19. Can trade opportunities and returns be generated in a trend persistent series? Evidence from global indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, S. K.; Bawa, Jaslene

    2017-03-01

    In this study, we explore the possibility of generating trade opportunities and returns when a financial stock index series is trend persistent. Through application of Hurst coefficient based on the modified range to standard deviation analysis (Weron, 2002) in a sample of 31 leading global indices during the period December 2000 to November 2015, we found periods of trend persistence. We developed and tested a set of trading strategies on these periods of trend persistent in the financial series and found that significant positive returns can be generated when a series displayed upward trend persistence.

  20. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    OpenAIRE

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-01-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods ...

  1. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This poses difficulties in conducting formal statistical tests of significance of ... The proposed algorithm captured known 'time-trends' in the simulated data with a high probability ... to draw valid inferences even when the sample size is small.

  2. Trend of the Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eberhardt, L.L.; Breiwick, J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Yellowstone's grizzlies (Ursus arctos) have been studied for more than 40 years. Radio telemetry has been used to obtain estimates of the rate of increase of the population, with results reported by Schwartz et al. (2006). Counts of females with cubs-of-the-year unduplicated also provide an index of abundance and are the primary subject of this report. An exponential model was fitted to n=24 such counts, using nonlinear least squares. Estimates of the rate of increase, r, were about 0.053. 95% confidence intervals, were obtained by several different methods, and all had lower limits substantially above zero, indicating that the population has been increasing steadily, in contrast to the results of Schwartz et al. (2006), which could not exclude a decreasing population. The grizzly data have been repeatedly mis-used in current literature for reasons explained here.

  3. Trend of the Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. L. Eberhardt

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Yellowstone's grizzlies (Ursus arctos have been studied for more than 40 years. Radiotelemetry has been used to obtain estimates of the rate of increase of the population, with results reported by Schwartz et al. (2006. Counts of females with cubs-of-the-year “unduplicated” also provide an index of abundance and are the primary subject of this report. An exponential model was fitted to n=24 such counts, using nonlinear leastsquares. Estimates of the rate of increase, r, were about 0.053. 95% confidence intervals, were obtained by several different methods, and all had lower limits substantially above zero, indicating that the population has been increasing steadily, in contrast to the results of Schwartz et al. (2006, which could not exclude a decreasing population. The grizzly data have been repeatedly mis-used in current literature for reasons explained here.

  4. Tuning the Voices of a Choir: Detecting Ecological Gradients in Time-Series Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allan Buras

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a new approach-the Principal Component Gradient Analysis (PCGA-to detect ecological gradients in time-series populations, i.e. several time-series originating from different individuals of a population. Detection of ecological gradients is of particular importance when dealing with time-series from heterogeneous populations which express differing trends. PCGA makes use of polar coordinates of loadings from the first two axes obtained by principal component analysis (PCA to define groups of similar trends. Based on the mean inter-series correlation (rbar the gain of increasing a common underlying signal by PCGA groups is quantified using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of validation PCGA is compared to three other existing approaches. Focusing on dendrochronological examples, PCGA is shown to correctly determine population gradients and in particular cases to be advantageous over other considered methods. Furthermore, PCGA groups in each example allowed for enhancing the strength of a common underlying signal and comparably well as hierarchical cluster analysis. Our results indicate that PCGA potentially allows for a better understanding of mechanisms causing time-series population gradients as well as objectively enhancing the performance of climate transfer functions in dendroclimatology. While our examples highlight the relevance of PCGA to the field of dendrochronology, we believe that also other disciplines working with data of comparable structure may benefit from PCGA.

  5. Tuning the Voices of a Choir: Detecting Ecological Gradients in Time-Series Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buras, Allan; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; van der Maaten, Ernst; Ahlgrimm, Svenja; Hermann, Philipp; Simard, Sonia; Heinrich, Ingo; Helle, Gerd; Unterseher, Martin; Schnittler, Martin; Eusemann, Pascal; Wilmking, Martin

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach-the Principal Component Gradient Analysis (PCGA)-to detect ecological gradients in time-series populations, i.e. several time-series originating from different individuals of a population. Detection of ecological gradients is of particular importance when dealing with time-series from heterogeneous populations which express differing trends. PCGA makes use of polar coordinates of loadings from the first two axes obtained by principal component analysis (PCA) to define groups of similar trends. Based on the mean inter-series correlation (rbar) the gain of increasing a common underlying signal by PCGA groups is quantified using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of validation PCGA is compared to three other existing approaches. Focusing on dendrochronological examples, PCGA is shown to correctly determine population gradients and in particular cases to be advantageous over other considered methods. Furthermore, PCGA groups in each example allowed for enhancing the strength of a common underlying signal and comparably well as hierarchical cluster analysis. Our results indicate that PCGA potentially allows for a better understanding of mechanisms causing time-series population gradients as well as objectively enhancing the performance of climate transfer functions in dendroclimatology. While our examples highlight the relevance of PCGA to the field of dendrochronology, we believe that also other disciplines working with data of comparable structure may benefit from PCGA.

  6. Greater sage-grouse population trends across Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Monroe, Adrian

    2018-01-01

    The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ∼24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for which groups of local experts are tasked with implementing Wyoming's statewide sage-grouse conservation plan at the local level], Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) by Working Groups, and Core Areas by Working Groups). Our goal was to determine the influence of fine-scale population trends (Core Areas) on larger-scale populations (Working Group Areas). We modeled the natural log of change in population size ( peak M lek counts) by time to calculate the finite rate of population growth (λ) for each population of interest from 1993 to 2015. We found that in general when Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) was investigated by Working Group Area, the 2 populations trended similarly and agreed with the overall trend of the Working Group Area. However, at the finer scale where Core Areas were analyzed separately, Core Areas within the same Working Group Area often trended differently and a few large Core Areas could influence the overall Working Group Area trend and mask trends occurring in smaller Core Areas. Relatively close fine-scale populations of sage-grouse can trend differently, indicating that large-scale trends may not accurately depict what is occurring across the landscape (e.g., local effects of gas and oil fields may be masked by increasing

  7. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ArchMiller, Althea A; Dorazio, Robert M; St Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models-or "sightability models"-fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  8. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    ArchMiller, Althea A.; Dorazio, Robert; St. Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R.

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models—or “sightability models”—fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  9. Time Series Analysis of Insar Data: Methods and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, Batuhan; Sunar, Filiz; Wdowinski, Shimon; Cano-Cabral, Enrique

    2015-01-01

    Time series analysis of InSAR data has emerged as an important tool for monitoring and measuring the displacement of the Earth's surface. Changes in the Earth's surface can result from a wide range of phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, variations in ground water levels, and changes in wetland water levels. Time series analysis is applied to interferometric phase measurements, which wrap around when the observed motion is larger than one-half of the radar wavelength. Thus, the spatio-temporal ''unwrapping" of phase observations is necessary to obtain physically meaningful results. Several different algorithms have been developed for time series analysis of InSAR data to solve for this ambiguity. These algorithms may employ different models for time series analysis, but they all generate a first-order deformation rate, which can be compared to each other. However, there is no single algorithm that can provide optimal results in all cases. Since time series analyses of InSAR data are used in a variety of applications with different characteristics, each algorithm possesses inherently unique strengths and weaknesses. In this review article, following a brief overview of InSAR technology, we discuss several algorithms developed for time series analysis of InSAR data using an example set of results for measuring subsidence rates in Mexico City.

  10. Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

  11. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

    2014-02-01

    The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

  12. Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2017-06-01

    Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann-Kendall (SQ-MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ-MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2-5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.

  13. Multi-granular trend detection for time-series analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Goethem, A.I.; Staals, F.; Löffler, M.; Dykes, J.; Speckmann, B.

    2017-01-01

    Time series (such as stock prices) and ensembles (such as model runs for weather forecasts) are two important types of one-dimensional time-varying data. Such data is readily available in large quantities but visual analysis of the raw data quickly becomes infeasible, even for moderately sized data

  14. Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

    1995-05-01

    The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

  15. Trends in Childspacing: June 1975. Current Population Reports: Population Characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Maurice J.; And Others

    This report, largely statistical tables, presents data from the June 1975 Current Population Survey, on the timing and spacing of childbearing and discusses how such data is related to annual measures of fertility. By categorizing women according to their year of birth (birth cohort) or period of first marriage (marriage cohort), in addition to…

  16. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-05-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

  17. Population structure and genetic trends for indigenous African beef ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study was to investigate population structure and genetic trends based on pedigree and performance records of five indigenous African beef cattle breeds (Afrikaner, Boran, Drakensberger, Nguni and Tuli) in South Africa. Pedigree completeness over six generations was higher than 88.5% in the first ...

  18. Recent population trends of mountain goats in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Beirne, Katherine F.; Hoffman, Roger A.; Griffin, Paul C.; Baccus, William T.; Fieberg, John

    2012-01-01

    Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) were introduced in Washington's Olympic Mountains during the 1920s. The population subsequently increased in numbers and expanded in range, leading to concerns by the 1970s over the potential effects of non-native mountain goats on high-elevation plant communities in Olympic National Park. The National Park Service (NPS) transplanted mountain goats from the Olympic Mountains to other ranges between 1981 and 1989 as a means to manage overabundant populations, and began monitoring population trends of mountain goats in 1983. We estimated population abundance of mountain goats during 18–25 July 2011, the sixth survey of the time series, to assess current population status and responses of the population to past management. We surveyed 39 sample units, comprising 39% of the 59,615-ha survey area. We estimated a population of 344 ± 72 (90% confidence interval [CI]) mountain goats in the survey area. Retrospective analysis of the 2004 survey, accounting for differences in survey area boundaries and methods of estimating aerial detection biases, indicated that the population increased at an average annual rate of 4.9% since the last survey. That is the first population growth observed since the cessation of population control measures in 1990. We postulate that differences in population trends observed in western, eastern, and southern sections of the survey zone reflected, in part, a variable influence of climate change across the precipitation gradient in the Olympic Mountains.

  19. Terrestrial bird population trends on Aguiguan (Goat Island), Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amidon, Fred; Camp, Richard J.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.; Williams, Laura; Radley, Paul; Cruz, Justine B.

    2014-01-01

    The island of Aguiguan is part of the Mariana archipelago and currently supports populations of four endemic species, including one endemic genus, Cleptornis. Bird population trends since 1982 were recently assessed on the neighbouring islands of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota indicating declines in some native species. Point-transect surveys were conducted in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to assess population densities and trends on Aguiguan. Densities for six of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Collared Kingfisher Todiramphus chloris, Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei, Bridled White-eye Zosterops conspicillatus and Micronesian Starling Aplonis opaca—and the non-native bird—Island Collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata—were significantly greater in 2008 than in 1982. No differences in densities were detected among the surveys for Mariana Fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, and Micronesian MyzomelaMyzomela rubratra. Three federally and locally listed endangered birds—Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinius, Mariana Swiftlet Collocalia bartschi, and Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperous)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts, the surveys were not appropriate for the species, or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities. The factors behind the increasing trends for some species are unknown but may be related to increased forest cover on the island since 1982. With declining trends for some native species on neighbouring islands, the increasing and stable trends on Aguiguan is good news for forest bird populations in the region, as Aguiguan populations can help support conservation efforts on other islands in the archipelago.

  20. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  1. Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

    2009-09-01

    For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

  2. International trends in health science librarianship: Part 6 Central Europe series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viragos, Marta

    2013-06-01

    This is the 6th in a series of articles exploring international trends in health science librarianship with a focus on Central Europe in the first decade of the 21st century. The invited authors are from Hungry, Poland and Czech Republic. Future issues will track trends the Middle East and then the Far East. JM. © 2013 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2013 Health Libraries Group.

  3. Population Profile of the United States: 1976. Current Population Reports, Population Characteristics, Series P-20, No. 307.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bureau of the Census (DOC), Suitland, MD. Population Div.

    This booklet summarizes population characteristics of the United States for 1976. A preliminary section of highlights reviews trends in five areas: population growth, social characteristics, population distribution, employment and income, and ethnic groups. The birth rate has declined, and the rate of childlessness has risen. This probably is due…

  4. Can neonatal TSH screening reflect trends in population iodine intake?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Burns, Robert

    2008-08-01

    The distribution of neonatal blood thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentrations has been used as an index reflecting population dietary iodine intake, with higher concentrations being indicative of lower iodine intake. We examined this distribution in neonates born in Ireland, where the pregnant population has shown a recent decline in urinary iodine (UI) excretion. Our objectives were to determine if any alteration was observed in the percentage of values > 5.0 mIU\\/L and whether a trend in neonatal blood TSH was apparent.

  5. Using exogenous variables in testing for monotonic trends in hydrologic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William M.

    1988-01-01

    One approach that has been used in performing a nonparametric test for monotonic trend in a hydrologic time series consists of a two-stage analysis. First, a regression equation is estimated for the variable being tested as a function of an exogenous variable. A nonparametric trend test such as the Kendall test is then performed on the residuals from the equation. By analogy to stagewise regression and through Monte Carlo experiments, it is demonstrated that this approach will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend and to result in some loss in power as a result of ignoring the interaction between the exogenous variable and time. An alternative approach, referred to as the adjusted variable Kendall test, is demonstrated to generally have increased statistical power and to provide more reliable estimates of the trend slope. In addition, the utility of including an exogenous variable in a trend test is examined under selected conditions.

  6. The dynamics of discrete populations and series of events

    CERN Document Server

    Hopcraft, Keith Iain; Ridley, Kevin D

    2014-01-01

    IntroductionReferencesStatistical PreliminariesIntroductionProbability DistributionsMoment-Generating FunctionsDiscrete ProcessesSeries of EventsSummaryFurther ReadingMarkovian Population ProcessesIntroductionBirths and DeathsImmigration and the Poisson ProcessThe Effect of MeasurementCorrelation of CountsSummaryFurther ReadingThe Birth-Death-Immigration ProcessIntroductionRate Equations for the ProcessEquation for the Generating FunctionGeneral Time-Dependent SolutionFluctuation Characteristics of a Birth-Death-Immigration PopulationSampling and Measurement ProcessesCorrelation of CountsSumma

  7. Trend analysis of time-series data: A novel method for untargeted metabolite discovery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, S.; Janssen, H.-G.; Vivó-Truyols, G.

    2010-01-01

    A new strategy for biomarker discovery is presented that uses time-series metabolomics data. Data sets from samples analysed at different time points after an intervention are searched for compounds that show a meaningful trend following the intervention. Obviously, this requires new data-analytical

  8. Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, de R.; Bruin, de S.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Schaepman, M.E.; Dent, D.L.

    2011-01-01

    Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect greening and browning trends; especially the global coverage of time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data which are available from 1981. Seasonality and serial auto-correlation in the data have previously been dealt

  9. Extreme Drought-induced Trend Changes in MODIS EVI Time Series in Yunnan, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang

    2014-01-01

    Extreme climatic events triggered by global climate change are expected to increase significantly hence research into vegetation response is crucial to evaluate environmental risk. Yunnan province, locating in southwest China, experienced an extreme drought event (from autumn of 2009 to spring of 2010), with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days in the past 50 years. This study aimed to explore the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of four land cover types in Yunnan province, including forest, grassland, shrub, and cropland during the period 2001-2011. We used remote sensing data, MODIS-derived EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) to study the vegetation responses to this extreme drought event. The EVI time series were decomposed into trend, seasonal and remainder components using BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) which accounts for seasonality and enables the detection of trend changes within the time series. The preliminary results showed that: (1) BFAST proved to be capable of detecting drought-induced trend changes in EVI time series. (2) Changes in the trend component over time consisted of both gradual and abrupt changes. (3) Different spatial patterns were found for abrupt and gradual changes. (4) Cropland exhibited an abrupt change, due to its sensitivity to severe drought, while the forest seemed least affected by the extreme drought

  10. Trend Analysis of Monthly and Annual Temperature Series of Quetta, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhat Iqbal

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The monthly average temperature series of Quetta – Pakistan from 1950 – 2000 is examined. A straight line is fitted to the data and seasonal variation and trend in temperature for each month of the year were obtained. An overall model is constructed as large variations in the monthly slopes were observed. In order to describe the seasonal pattern and trend in temperature, corresponding to the different months, both sine/cosine waves and sine/cosine waves multiplied by the time were included in the model as independent variables. The lag-1 autocorrelation was found in the residual of the model and hence another model was fitted to the pre-whiten series that shows a good fit ( and is free from correlated residuals. Both parametric and non-parametric tests applied to each month temperature show significant trend in all months except February and March.

  11. [Trends in smoking in an urban population over recent decades].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalbí, Joan R; Bartoll, Xavier; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Borrell, Carme

    2016-05-06

    The objective of this study is to describe the distribution of smoking in the population and to assess changes and trends over recent decades. Cross sectional study in a sample of the non-institutionalized resident population (n=3,509) in Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) using data from persons over 14 years of age from the health survey of 2011, and assessing trends for 1983-2011 using previous surveys. Dependent variables are having ever been a smoker, having quit, being a current smoker, and smoking daily. Independent variables include sex, age, and time. Prevalence and proportions are estimated, stratifying or adjusting for age. The prevalence of daily smokers is 18.8% in 2011: 22.2% for men and 15.9% for women. The age groups with higher smoking prevalence are 25-34 years for men and 15-24 for women. From 1983 to 2011 the reduction among men has been intense, and for women the prevalence has been decreasing since the survey of 2000. Among smokers, the proportion of both genders who do not smoke daily has increased. The smoking epidemic over the last years shows promising trends. The data do not lend support to the hardening hypothesis for current smokers. Smokers are a shrinking minority, although to improve public health it would be desirable to speed the process of change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. Did Medicare Part D Affect National Trends in Health Outcomes or Hospitalizations? A Time-Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briesacher, Becky A; Madden, Jeanne M; Zhang, Fang; Fouayzi, Hassan; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Gurwitz, Jerry H; Soumerai, Stephen B

    2015-06-16

    Medicare Part D increased economic access to medications, but its effect on population-level health outcomes and use of other medical services remains unclear. To examine changes in health outcomes and medical services in the Medicare population after implementation of Part D. Population-level longitudinal time-series analysis with generalized linear models. Community. Nationally representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries (n = 56,293 [unweighted and unique]) from 2000 to 2010. Changes in self-reported health status, limitations in activities of daily living (ADLs) (ADLs and instrumental ADLs), emergency department visits and hospital admissions (prevalence, counts, and spending), and mortality. Medicare claims data were used for confirmatory analyses. Five years after Part D implementation, no clinically or statistically significant reductions in the prevalence of fair or poor health status or limitations in ADLs or instrumental ADLs, relative to historical trends, were detected. Compared with trends before Part D, no changes in emergency department visits, hospital admissions or days, inpatient costs, or mortality after Part D were seen. Confirmatory analyses were consistent. Only total population-level outcomes were studied. Self-reported measures may lack sensitivity. Five years after implementation, and contrary to previous reports, no evidence was found of Part D's effect on a range of population-level health indicators among Medicare enrollees. Further, there was no clear evidence of gains in medical care efficiencies.

  13. Population pressure on coral atolls: trends and approaching limits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapaport, M

    1990-09-01

    Trends and approaching limits of population pressure on coral atolls is discussed by examining the atoll environment in terms of the physical geography, the production systems, and resource distribution. Atoll populations are grouped as dependent and independent, and demographic trends in population growth, migraiton, urbanization, and political dependency are reviewed. Examination of the carrying capacity includes a dynamic model, the influences of the West, and philopsophical considerations. The carrying capacity is the "maximal population supportable in a given area". Traditional models are criticized because of a lack in accounting for external linkages. The proposed model is dynamic and considers perceived needs and overseas linkages. It also explains regional disparities in population distribution, and provides a continuing model for population movement from outer islands to district centers and mainland areas. Because of increased expectations and perceived needs, there is a lower carrying capacity for outlying areas, and expanded capacity in district centers. This leads to urbanization, emigration, and carrying capacity overshot in regional and mainland areas. Policy intervention is necessary at the regional and island community level. Atolls, which are islands surrounding deep lagoons, exist in archipelagoes across the oceans, and are rich in aquatic life. The balance in this small land area with a vulnerable ecosystem may be easily disturbed by scarce water supplies, barren soils, rising sea levels in the future, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Traditionally, fisheries and horticulture (pit-taro, coconuts, and breadfruit) have sustained populations, but modern influences such as blasting, reef mining, new industrial technologies, population pressure, and urbanization threaten the balance. Population pressure, which has lead to pollution, epidemics, malnutrition, crime, social disintegration, and foreign dependence, is evidenced in the areas of Tuvalu, Kiribati

  14. Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

    2017-09-01

    Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

  15. Yfiler® Plus population samples and dilution series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikkel Meyer; Mogensen, Helle Smidt; Eriksen, Poul Svante

    2017-01-01

    DNA complicated the analysis by causing drop-ins of characteristic female DNA artefacts. Even though the customised analytical threshold in combination with the custom-made artefact filters gave more alleles, crime scene samples still needed special attention from the forensic geneticist....... dynamics and performance. We determined dye-dependent analytical thresholds by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and made a customised artefact filter that includes theoretical known artefacts by use of previously analysed population samples. Dilution series of known male DNA and a selection...

  16. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  17. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  18. Population trends, survival, and sampling methodologies for a population of Rana draytonii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A.W.; Halstead, Brian J.

    2017-01-01

    Estimating population trends provides valuable information for resource managers, but monitoring programs face trade-offs between the quality and quantity of information gained and the number of sites surveyed. We compared the effectiveness of monitoring techniques for estimating population trends of Rana draytonii (California Red-legged Frog) at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA, over a 13-yr period. Our primary goals were to: 1) estimate trends for a focal pond at Point Reyes National Seashore, and 2) evaluate whether egg mass counts could reliably estimate an index of abundance relative to more-intensive capture–mark–recapture methods. Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) surveys of males indicated a stable population from 2005 to 2009, despite low annual apparent survival (26.3%). Egg mass counts from 2000 to 2012 indicated that despite some large fluctuations, the breeding female population was generally stable or increasing, with annual abundance varying between 26 and 130 individuals. Minor modifications to egg mass counts, such as marking egg masses, can allow estimation of egg mass detection probabilities necessary to convert counts to abundance estimates, even when closure of egg mass abundance cannot be assumed within a breeding season. High egg mass detection probabilities (mean per-survey detection probability = 0.98 [0.89–0.99]) indicate that egg mass surveys can be an efficient and reliable method for monitoring population trends of federally threatened R. draytonii. Combining egg mass surveys to estimate trends at many sites with CMR methods to evaluate factors affecting adult survival at focal populations is likely a profitable path forward to enhance understanding and conservation of R. draytonii.

  19. Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, T.

    2011-03-01

    This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

  20. HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hundecha

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed due to climate change or other drivers of change is of high interest. The number of flood trend studies is rapidly rising. When changes are detected, many studies link the identified change to the underlying causes, i.e. they attribute the changes in flood behaviour to certain drivers of change. We propose a hypothesis testing framework for trend attribution which consists of essential ingredients for a sound attribution: evidence of consistency, evidence of inconsistency, and provision of confidence statement. Further, we evaluate the current state-of-the-art of flood trend attribution. We assess how selected recent studies approach the attribution problem, and to which extent their attribution statements seem defendable. In our opinion, the current state of flood trend attribution is poor. Attribution statements are mostly based on qualitative reasoning or even speculation. Typically, the focus of flood trend studies is the detection of change, i.e. the statistical analysis of time series, and attribution is regarded as an appendix: (1 flood time series are analysed by means of trend tests, (2 if a significant change is detected, a hypothesis on the cause of change is given, and (3 explanations or published studies are sought which support the hypothesis. We believe that we need a change in perspective and more scientific rigour: detection should be seen as an integral part of the more challenging attribution problem, and detection and attribution should be placed in a sound hypothesis testing framework.

  1. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  2. Trends and complications of ear piercing among selected Nigerian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olajide Toye Gabriel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The reported health and socioeconomic consequences of ear piercing, especially in modern day society, underscore the need to further research into this subject. In this study, we determine the trends and complications of ear piercing among selected Nigerian population. Aim and Objectives: The aim and objective of this study was to draw attention to the trends and complications of ear piercing with a view to prevent its associated complications. Methodology: It is a descriptive cross-sectional study carried out between February and May 2015 among selected Nigerian population from two of its six geo-political zones. A self-administered semi-structured questionnaire which had been pretested was used to collect data from 458 respondents who consented using multistage sampling technique. Results: Of 480 respondents enumerated, 458 completed the questionnaires and gave their biodata. The male:female ratio was 1:6.2. Their ages ranged from 18 to 75 years with a mean of 35.56 ± 10.16. About 35.4% of the respondents were within the age group of 31–40 years. Majority of the respondents, i.e.,79.3% practiced ear piercing on their children. Most of them (86.8% preferred single piercing. Ear piercing was performed within the 1st week of birth in 37.2% of the respondents. Large percentage (93.2% of the respondents will not encourage ear piercing in male children. Nearly 20.5% of the respondents observed complications. Conclusion: Ear piercing remained a common practice in Nigeria, with respondents preferring it on females. Majority of the piercings are done in childhood and by untrained personnel. Keloid formation was the notable complication observed by the respondents. There is a need to increase awareness about the hazards of ear piercings and to enact laws that regulate ear piercings particularly in children which is hereby stretched.

  3. Hair mercury levels in Amazonian populations: spatial distribution and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbieri Flavia L

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mercury is present in the Amazonian aquatic environments from both natural and anthropogenic sources. As a consequence, many riverside populations are exposed to methylmercury, a highly toxic organic form of mercury, because of their intense fish consumption. Many studies have analysed this exposure from different approaches since the early nineties. This review aims to systematize the information in spatial distribution, comparing hair mercury levels by studied population and Amazonian river basin, looking for exposure trends. Methods The reviewed papers were selected from scientific databases and online libraries. We included studies with a direct measure of hair mercury concentrations in a sample size larger than 10 people, without considering the objectives, approach of the study or mercury speciation. The results are presented in tables and maps by river basin, displaying hair mercury levels and specifying the studied population and health impact, if any. Results The majority of the studies have been carried out in communities from the central Amazonian regions, particularly on the Tapajós River basin. The results seem quite variable; hair mercury means range from 1.1 to 34.2 μg/g. Most studies did not show any significant difference in hair mercury levels by gender or age. Overall, authors emphasized fish consumption frequency as the main risk factor of exposure. The most studied adverse health effect is by far the neurological performance, especially motricity. However, it is not possible to conclude on the relation between hair mercury levels and health impact in the Amazonian situation because of the relatively small number of studies. Conclusions Hair mercury levels in the Amazonian regions seem to be very heterogenic, depending on several factors. There is no obvious spatial trend and there are many areas that have never been studied. Taking into account the low mercury levels currently handled as acceptable, the

  4. Assessment of land degradation using time series trend analysis of vegetation indictors in Otindag Sandy land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, H Y; Li, Z Y; Gao, Z H; Wu, J J; Sun, B; Li, C L

    2014-01-01

    Land condition assessment is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory, which might lead to desertification under climatic and human pressures. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of land degradation. In this paper, taking the Otindag Sandy Land as a case, the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI a ), net primary production (NPP) and vegetation rain use efficiency (RUE) dynamic trends during 2001–2010 were analysed. The Mann-Kendall test and the Correlation Analysis method were used and their sensitivities to land degradation were evaluated. The results showed that the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE) showed a downward trend with the two methods in the past 10 years and the land was degraded. For the analysis of the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE), it indicated a decreasing trend in 62.57%, 74.16% and 88.56% of the study area according to the Mann-Kendall test and in 57.85%, 68.38% and 85.29% according to the correlation analysis method. However, the change trends were not significant, the significant trends at the 95% confidence level only accounted for a small proportion. Analysis of NDVI a , NPP and RUE series showed a significant decreasing trend in 9.21%, 4.81% and 6.51% with the Mann-Kendall test. The NPP change trends showed obvious positive link with the precipitation in the study area. While the effect of the inter-annual variation of the precipitation for RUE was small, the vegetation RUE can provide valuable insights into the status of land condition and had best sensitivity to land degradation

  5. Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, Emily B; Morgan, Byron J T; Brereton, Tom M; Roy, David B; Fox, Richard

    2017-12-01

    Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published

  6. Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mudelsee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka. We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser–Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1 block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation of the δ18O residuals and (2 timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam. The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka, with warm–cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, the Little Ice Age (LIA and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP.

  7. Louisiana physician population trends: will increase in supply meet demand?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Julie A; Sessions, Blane A; Ali, Juzar; Rigby, Perry C

    2012-01-01

    Physician shortages in the United States are now recognized broadly and widespread by specialty and geography. While supply is increasing, demand inexorably rises. This situation will probably be further stressed post implementation of healthcare reform. The variations by region and by state are many and significant; this complexity is not fully understood nor yet characterized. Trends similar to the averages of the US have been identified in Louisiana, including the aging of physicians. Lack of physicians, both specialists and generalists, has been reported to compromise quality and effectiveness of healthcare. Thus, the importance of matching up supply and demand is evident. The supply of physicians is increasing in absolute number and in the physicians-to-population ratio. Variations in population, aging, geography, and specialties indicate, in some areas, that this may not be enough to deal with the increasing demand. This paper aims to assess historically how physician shortages may affect the balance of supply and demand in future healthcare delivery, particularly in Louisiana.

  8. Preliminary study on the relationship between trends of tree-ring δ 13C series and site conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Tuo; Qin Dahe; Liu Xiaohong; Ren Jiawen

    2001-01-01

    The long-term trends of tree-ring δ 13 C series, taken respectively from Qilian of Qinghai and Zhaosu and Aleitai of xinjiang were compared. The results showed that a similar trend existed between Qilian series and Zhaosu series, while there was a significant difference between them and Aleitai series. The authors' analysis indicated that the site difference of the trends of tree-ring δ 13 C series was mainly associated with 'canopy effects' of tree growth. It is suggested that tree samples should be selected from sparse forests or the sampled tree foliage high above the whole canopy when the history of δ 13 C of atmospheric CO 2 was reconstructed by tree-ring series

  9. Trends into rainfall time series of two andes basins of Valle del Cauca (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisury Cardona-Guerrero

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the goal of detecting changes or trends in registered data of daily rainfall in the basins of rivers Dagua and Cali, located in the south-west of Colombia, in the Valle del Cauca, nine climate extremes indices were calculated using the RClimDex software. For this, precipitation trends were analyzed in 18 rain gauges located in the study area with historical series ranging between 21 and 56 years. Homogeneity tests were made to data to ensure consistency in the information. The results show changes in rainfall, dominated by the increasing trends for almost all indices; however most of the trends do not show high statistical significance. Also, a significant increase in the average annual total rainfall of 15.2 mm (Dagua river basin and 9.1 mm (Cali river basin in the stations located below 1500 msnm was obtained. Moreover, in the stations located at higher elevations, decreases were observed. There is a homogeneous spatial distribution for the most of the indices and similar patterns were found located in defined areas of the study zone, which may affect the runoff production in watersheds in the coming years.

  10. Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Rui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business administration talents. With the gradually increasing demand for the business administration talents, various colleges and universities also set up the business administration major to train a large number of administration talents, thus leading to an upward trend for the academic focus on business administration.

  11. Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang Rui

    2016-01-01

    On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business adm...

  12. A study of regional trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and runoff series

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tveito, O.E.; Hisdal, H.

    1994-03-10

    In this study long and homogeneous time series of runoff and precipitation are studied to identify variations in time and space. The method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF-method) is applied. Both annual observations, smoothed (using Gauss filter) and seasonal values are analyzed. The analysis shows that the temporal variations in runoff and precipitation coincide. The deviations occurring in the seasonal values are caused by snow accumulation and snow melt. In the filtered series temporal trends are found. A comparison between the different normal periods has been carried out for precipitation. The 1900-30 and 1960-90 periods differ from the 1930-60 period. This may be caused by different weather types dominating the different periods. The different weather types are reflected in different empirical orthogonal functions. This is verified by regional studies. The coinciding patterns in runoff and precipitation are important aspects in climate studies and for extrapolation purposes. 11 refs., 20 figs., 1 tab.

  13. Population trends of Goričko agricultural landscape birds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denac Katarina

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to numerous bird surveys in the past 20 years, the avifauna of Goričko is relatively well known. For some species, the very first national ecological researches were conducted in this area. The article summarizes all bird surveys so far. It presents population trends of farmland species which is one of the most threatened bird groups in Europe. Most of the qualifying species of this habitat that are protected within the Natura 2000 network have suffered a decline at Goričko, specifically Quail Coturnix coturnix, Scops Owl Otus scops, Hoopoe Upupa epops, Woodlark Lullula arborea and White Stork Ciconia ciconia. The number of breeding pairs of the latter has not changed, but its fecundity has decreased. Furthermore, populations of other farmland bird species have decreased, for example Skylark Alauda arvensis, Stonechat Saxicola rubicola, Serin Serinus serinus and Common Linnet Linaria cannabina, as well as butterfly populations and tracts of grassland habitat types. National agricultural and nature conservation policies are evidently inefficient in protecting the biodiversity of Goričko. The most probable cause for bird population decline is agricultural intensification, which manifests itself at Goričko as disappearance and intensification of meadows, land consolidation, degradation of traditional orchards and use of pesticides. As a result of land consolidation hedges, uncultivated strips between fields, individual trees and bushes and minority habitat types are disappearing, whereas the surface of arable fields is increasing. Nature conservation measures performed by the Public Institute Goričko Nature Park with the support of DOPPS – BirdLife Slovenia volunteers seem to be efficient, but are spatially and temporally constrained. For this reason, they cannot serve as a substitute for insufficient systemic financing which could be improved by substantive and financial reform of the agri-environmental scheme. Currently, a negligible

  14. Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

    2017-02-01

    Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture-for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments-as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series-daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014-was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

  15. Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

    2010-01-01

    We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

  16. Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

    2012-04-01

    In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

  17. Time Series Analysis of Onchocerciasis Data from Mexico: A Trend towards Elimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, Miguel A.; Adeleke, Monsuru A.; Orozco-Algarra, María E.; Arrendondo-Jiménez, Juan I.; Guo, Xianwu

    2013-01-01

    Background In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R. Results A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico. Conclusion The endemic regions of Mexico evolved from high onchocerciasis-endemic states to the interruption of transmission due to the strategies followed by the MSH, based on treatment with ivermectin. The extremely low level of expected cases as predicted by ARIMA models for the next two years suggest that the onchocerciasis is being eliminated in Mexico. To our knowledge, it is the first study utilizing time series for predicting case dynamics of onchocerciasis, which could be used as a benchmark during monitoring and post-treatment surveillance. PMID:23459370

  18. Trends in childhood injury mortality in South African population ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Trends in major causes of injury mortality and the proportion of total deaths attributable to injuries trom 1968·to 1985 tor white, coloured and Asian children < 15 years in the RSA were examined. There were 937 injury deaths in 1968 and 853 in 1985 but no clear trends in overall mortality rates were observed. There were ...

  19. Great Lakes prey fish populations: A cross-basin overview of status and trends in 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, Owen T.; Bunnell, David B.

    2009-01-01

    Assessments of prey fishes in the Great Lakes have been conducted annually since the 1970s by the Great Lakes Science Center, sometimes assisted by partner agencies. Prey fish assessments differ among lakes in the proportion of a lake covered, seasonal timing, bottom trawl gear used, sampling design, and the manner in which the trawl is towed (across or along bottom contours). Because each assessment is unique in one or more important aspects, a direct comparison of prey fish catches among lakes is problematic. All of the assessments, however, produce indices of abundance or biomass that can be standardized to facilitate comparisons of trends among lakes and to illustrate present status of the populations. We present indices of abundance for important prey fishes in the Great Lakes standardized to the highest value for a time series within each lake: cisco (Coregonus artedi), bloater (C. hoyi), rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax), and alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus). We also provide indices for round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), an invasive fish presently spreading throughout the basin. Our intent is to provide a short, informal report emphasizing data presentation rather than synthesis; for this reason we intentionally avoid use of tables and cited references.For each lake, standardized relative indices for annual biomass and density estimates of important prey fishes were calculated as the fraction relative to the largest value observed in the times series. To determine whether basin-wide trends were apparent for each species, we first ranked standardized index values within each lake. When comparing ranked index values from three or more lakes, we calculated the Kendall coefficient of concordance (W), which can range from 0 (complete discordance or disagreement among trends) to 1 (complete concordance or agreement among trends). The P-value for W provides the probability of agreement across the lakes. When comparing ranked index values from two lakes, we calculated

  20. HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

    2014-05-01

    The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of

  1. Analysis of the Main Factors Influencing Food Production in China Based on Time Series Trend Chart

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shuangjin; WANG; Jianying; LI

    2014-01-01

    Based on the annual sample data on food production in China since the reform and opening up,we select 8 main factors influencing the total food production( growing area,application rate of chemical fertilizer,effective irrigation area,the affected area,total machinery power,food production cost index,food production price index,financial funds for supporting agriculture,farmers and countryside),and put them into categories of material input,resources and environment,and policy factors. Using the factor analysis,we carry out the multi-angle analysis of these typical influencing factors one by one through the time series trend chart. It is found that application rate of chemical fertilizer,the growing area of food crops and drought-affected area become the key factors affecting food production. On this basis,we set forth the corresponding recommendations for improving the comprehensive food production capacity.

  2. Mississippi's Farming & Nonfarming Population: A Comparison of Characteristics and Trends, 1950 to 1970.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryant, Ellen S.

    Trends and changes in Mississippi farms, farmers, and farm populations were investigated for the period between 1950 and 1970 and comparisons were made between the farm population and that of the urban and rural nonfarm segments in terms of growth trends and 1970 characteristics. Data were drawn from both the Censuses of Agriculture (taken at five…

  3. Trends in low birth weight infants and changes in Baltimore's childbearing population, 1972–77

    OpenAIRE

    Strobino, Donna M.

    1982-01-01

    Linked birth and death records provided the population for a study of trends in low birth weight (LBW) rates in Baltimore between 1972 and 1977 and of the effect of changes in the characteristics of the childbearing population on these trends. The impact of shifts in the birth weight distribution on neonatal mortality rates was also investigated. Trends were analyzed for unstandardized LBW rates as well as for rates standardized on the distributions of maternal age, education, gravidity, prio...

  4. Building global and diffuse solar radiation series and assessing decadal trends in Girona (NE Iberian Peninsula)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calbó, Josep; González, Josep-Abel; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo

    2017-08-01

    Measurement of solar radiation was initiated in Girona, northeast of the Iberian Peninsula, in the late 1980s. Initially, two pyranometers were installed, one of them equipped with a shadowband for measuring the diffuse component. Two other pyranometers currently exist, both ventilated and one of them shadowed, with a sphere, and a pyrheliometer for measuring direct radiation. Additional instruments for other shortwave and longwave components, clouds, and atmospheric aerosols have been installed in recent years. The station is subject to daily inspection, data are saved at high temporal resolution, and instruments are periodically calibrated, all in accordance with the directions of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. The present paper describes how the entire series of global solar radiation (1987-2014) and diffuse radiation (1994-2014) were built, including the quality control process. Appropriate corrections to the diffuse component were made when a shadowband was employed to make measurements. Analysis of the series reveals that annual mean global irradiance presents a statistically significant increase of 2.5 W m-2 (1.4 %) decade-1 (1988-2014 period), mainly due to what occurs in summer (5.6 W m-2 decade-1). These results constitute the first assessment of solar radiation trends for the northeastern region of the Iberian Peninsula and are consistent with trends observed in the regional surroundings and also by satellite platforms, in agreement with the global brightening phenomenon. Diffuse radiation has decreased at -1.3 W m-2 (-2 %) decade-1 (1994-2014 period), which is a further indication of the reduced cloudiness and/or aerosol load causing the changes.

  5. Application of the Trend Filtering Algorithm for Photometric Time Series Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, Giri; Plavchan, Peter; van Eyken, Julian; Ciardi, David; von Braun, Kaspar; Kane, Stephen R.

    2016-08-01

    Detecting transient light curves (e.g., transiting planets) requires high-precision data, and thus it is important to effectively filter systematic trends affecting ground-based wide-field surveys. We apply an implementation of the Trend Filtering Algorithm (TFA) to the 2MASS calibration catalog and select Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) photometric time series data. TFA is successful at reducing the overall dispersion of light curves, however, it may over-filter intrinsic variables and increase “instantaneous” dispersion when a template set is not judiciously chosen. In an attempt to rectify these issues we modify the original TFA from the literature by including measurement uncertainties in its computation, including ancillary data correlated with noise, and algorithmically selecting a template set using clustering algorithms as suggested by various authors. This approach may be particularly useful for appropriately accounting for variable photometric precision surveys and/or combined data sets. In summary, our contributions are to provide a MATLAB software implementation of TFA and a number of modifications tested on synthetics and real data, summarize the performance of TFA and various modifications on real ground-based data sets (2MASS and PTF), and assess the efficacy of TFA and modifications using synthetic light curve tests consisting of transiting and sinusoidal variables. While the transiting variables test indicates that these modifications confer no advantage to transit detection, the sinusoidal variables test indicates potential improvements in detection accuracy.

  6. The Recent Development of Croatia's Population – Regular and Irregular Population Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Lajić

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The recent development of Croatia’s population is burdened by many phenomena, due to which we can define it as irregular. Aggression against the newly-independent Croatian state, as well as the wars in its neighbourhood, brought about mechanical population movements that to a great degree enter into the category of forced migrations. The war death rate in the early 1990s and the strong refugee and expellee flows caused the strongest depopulation in recent times. Depopulation was present not only in war-effected areas – its further consequences were felt throughout Croatia. The mechanical, rather than the biological component determined this regressive development. The paper identifies the key modalities in migration flows in Croatia, which show that it is at the same time both an emigration and an immigration country. Wars in former Yugoslavia, which were to a high degree characterized by inter-ethnic conflicts, resulted in migration flows of people to their ethnic core areas. Thus, Croatia has received a strong immigration current made up of Croats from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, whereas emigration from Croatia to the latter countries mostly involved rural Serbs. Besides these migration trends, members of the ethnically Croatian (majority population and also other groups from Croatia, have migrated to Western Europe, which was a continuation of traditional migration trends. Among these migrants there is a large contingent which could be denoted as part of the “brain drain”. The census conducted in 2001 applied a different methodology than earlier censuses. The problem of different census methodologies is especially pertinent in a country which has a large number of refugees and economic migrants that cannot be classified into the category of emigrants. Thus the 2001 Census registered that Croatia has 4,437,460 inhabitants, or 7.25% less than in 1991.

  7. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

  8. Aging in France: Population Trends, Policy Issues, and Research Institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beland, Daniel; Durandal, Jean-Philippe Viriot

    2013-01-01

    Like in other advanced industrial countries, in France, demographic aging has become a widely debated research and policy topic. This article offers a brief overview of major aging-related trends in France. The article describes France's demographics of aging, explores key policy matters, maps the institutional field of French social gerontology…

  9. Modeling and Forecasting of Water Demand in Isfahan Using Underlying Trend Concept and Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeghi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Accurate water demand modeling for the city is very important for forecasting and policies adoption related to water resources management. Thus, for future requirements of water estimation, forecasting and modeling, it is important to utilize models with little errors. Water has a special place among the basic human needs, because it not hampers human life. The importance of the issue of water management in the extraction and consumption, it is necessary as a basic need. Municipal water applications is include a variety of water demand for domestic, public, industrial and commercial. Predicting the impact of urban water demand in better planning of water resources in arid and semiarid regions are faced with water restrictions. Materials and Methods: One of the most important factors affecting the changing technological advances in production and demand functions, we must pay special attention to the layout pattern. Technology development is concerned not only technically, but also other aspects such as personal, non-economic factors (population, geographical and social factors can be analyzed. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural components over time allows changed invisible accidentally. Explanatory variables technology (both crystalline and amorphous in a model according to which the material is said to be better, but because of the lack of measured variables over time can not be entered in the template. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural component invisible accidentally changed over time allows. In this study, structural time series (STSM and ARMA time series models have been used to model and estimate the water demand in Isfahan. Moreover, in order to find the efficient procedure, both models have been compared to each other. The desired data in this research include water consumption in Isfahan, water price and the monthly pay

  10. When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

    Science.gov (United States)

    David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

    2010-01-01

    The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

  11. Mapping Mountain Pine Beetle Mortality through Growth Trend Analysis of Time-Series Landsat Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Disturbances are key processes in the carbon cycle of forests and other ecosystems. In recent decades, mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae outbreaks have become more frequent and extensive in western North America. Remote sensing has the ability to fill the data gaps of long-term infestation monitoring, but the elimination of observational noise and attributing changes quantitatively are two main challenges in its effective application. Here, we present a forest growth trend analysis method that integrates Landsat temporal trajectories and decision tree techniques to derive annual forest disturbance maps over an 11-year period. The temporal trajectory component successfully captures the disturbance events as represented by spectral segments, whereas decision tree modeling efficiently recognizes and attributes events based upon the characteristics of the segments. Validated against a point set sampled across a gradient of MPB mortality, 86.74% to 94.00% overall accuracy was achieved with small variability in accuracy among years. In contrast, the overall accuracies of single-date classifications ranged from 37.20% to 75.20% and only become comparable with our approach when the training sample size was increased at least four-fold. This demonstrates that the advantages of this time series work flow exist in its small training sample size requirement. The easily understandable, interpretable and modifiable characteristics of our approach suggest that it could be applicable to other ecoregions.

  12. Genetic variances, trends and mode of inheritance for hip and elbow dysplasia in Finnish dog populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mäki, K.; Groen, A.F.; Liinamo, A.E.; Ojala, M.

    2002-01-01

    The aims of this study were to assess genetic variances, trends and mode of inheritance for hip and elbow dysplasia in Finnish dog populations. The influence of time-dependent fixed effects in the model when estimating the genetic trends was also studied. Official hip and elbow dysplasia screening

  13. Aging in Mexico: Population Trends and Emerging Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, William; López-Ortega, Mariana

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Although all nations in the America’s face a common demographic reality of longevity, declining fertility rates and changes in family roles a growing body of research points to a dramatic demographic transformation in Mexico. Although Mexico’s population is relatively young, with a median age of 27.9 in 2015, it will age rapidly in coming years, increasing to 42 years by 2050. The rapid median age in the nation also reflects the growing proportion of people 65 or older, and is expected to triple to 20.2% by 2050. This article examines how the age and gender structure of Mexico offers important insights about current and future political and social stability, as well as economic development. Mexico is the world’s eleventh largest country in terms of population size and the “demographic dividend” of a large youthful population is giving way to a growing older population that will inevitably place demands on health care and social security. The shift in age structure will result in increased dependency of retirees on the working-age population in the next 20 years. Mexico does not provide universal coverage of social security benefits and less than half of the labor force is covered by any pension or retirement plan. As a result, elderly Mexicans often continue working into old age. The high total poverty rate in the country, especially among the older population magnifies the problem of the potential dependency burden. The article ends with a discussion of key public policy issues related to aging in Mexico. PMID:27927730

  14. Trends in population dose and examples of occupational dose reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, K.B.; Hughes, J.S.; McDonough, L.; Gelder, R.

    1989-01-01

    The recent review by NRPB of the exposure of the UK population shows the average annual dose to the population from all sources of radiation to be 2.5 mSv(1). Natural radiation gives rise to 87% of this with radon daughters accounting for the largest single contribution of 1.2 mSv. Medical irradiation remains the most significant contributor to the dose from man-made sources: the current estimate for all diagnostic uses is 0.3 mSv per annum. (author)

  15. Demographic trends in Claremont California’s street tree population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natalie S. van Doorn; E. Gregory McPherson

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to quantify street tree population dynamics in the city of Claremont, CA. A repeated measures survey (2000 and 2014) based on a stratified random sampling approach across size classes and for the most abundant 21 species was analyzed to calculate removal, growth, and replacement planting rates. Demographic rates were estimated using a...

  16. World population, world health and security: 20th century trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashford, A

    2008-03-01

    The connection between infectious disease control and national security is now firmly entrenched. This article takes a historical look at another security issue once prominent in debate on foreign policy and international relations, but now more or less absent: overpopulation. It explores the nature of the debate on population as a security question, and its complicated historical relation to the development of world health.

  17. Population trends and management opportunities for neotropical migrants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler S. Robbins; John. R. Sauer; Bruce G. Peterjohn

    1993-01-01

    The Breeding Bird Survey shows that certain Neotropical migrant songbird populations have been declining over the past 26 years. Among them are forest birds that require extensive forest on the breeding grounds and also forested habitats on tropical wintering grounds. Other species have shown significant declines only since the early 1980's. Birds with broader...

  18. River dolphins can act as population trend indicators in degraded freshwater systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel T Turvey

    Full Text Available Conservation attention on charismatic large vertebrates such as dolphins is often supported by the suggestion that these species represent surrogates for wider biodiversity, or act as indicators of ecosystem health. However, their capacity to act as indicators of patterns or trends in regional biodiversity has rarely been tested. An extensive new dataset of >300 last-sighting records for the Yangtze River dolphin or baiji and two formerly economically important fishes, the Yangtze paddlefish and Reeves' shad, all of which are probably now extinct in the Yangtze, was collected during an interview survey of fishing communities across the middle-lower Yangtze drainage. Untransformed last-sighting date frequency distributions for these species show similar decline curves over time, and the linear gradients of transformed last-sighting date series are not significantly different from each other, demonstrating that these species experienced correlated population declines in both timing and rate of decline. Whereas species may be expected to respond differently at the population level even in highly degraded ecosystems, highly vulnerable (e.g. migratory species can therefore display very similar responses to extrinsic threats, even if they represent otherwise very different taxonomic, biological and ecological groupings. Monitoring the status of river dolphins or other megafauna therefore has the potential to provide wider information on the status of other threatened components of sympatric freshwater biotas, and so represents a potentially important monitoring tool for conservation management. We also show that interview surveys can provide robust quantitative data on relative population dynamics of different species.

  19. Nonparametric trend estimation in the presence of fractal noise: application to fMRI time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshinpour, Babak; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

    2008-06-30

    Unknown low frequency fluctuations called "trend" are observed in noisy time-series measured for different applications. In some disciplines, they carry primary information while in other fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) they carry nuisance effects. In all cases, however, it is necessary to estimate them accurately. In this paper, a method for estimating trend in the presence of fractal noise is proposed and applied to fMRI time-series. To this end, a partly linear model (PLM) is fitted to each time-series. The parametric and nonparametric parts of PLM are considered as contributions of hemodynamic response and trend, respectively. Using the whitening property of wavelet transform, the unknown components of the model are estimated in the wavelet domain. The results of the proposed method are compared to those of other parametric trend-removal approaches such as spline and polynomial models. It is shown that the proposed method improves activation detection and decreases variance of the estimated parameters relative to the other methods.

  20. THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subanar Subanar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

  1. American Exceptionalism: Population Trends and Flight Initiation Distances in Birds from Three Continents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Anders Pape; Samia, Diogo S. M.; Weston, Mike A.; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Blumstein, Daniel T.

    2014-01-01

    Background All organisms may be affected by humans' increasing impact on Earth, but there are many potential drivers of population trends and the relative importance of each remains largely unknown. The causes of spatial patterns in population trends and their relationship with animal responses to human proximity are even less known. Methodology/Principal Finding We investigated the relationship between population trends of 193 species of bird in North America, Australia and Europe and flight initiation distance (FID); the distance at which birds take flight when approached by a human. While there is an expected negative relationship between population trend and FID in Australia and Europe, we found the inverse relationship for North American birds; thus FID cannot be used as a universal predictor of vulnerability of birds. However, the analysis of the joint explanatory ability of multiple drivers (farmland breeding habitat, pole-most breeding latitude, migratory habit, FID) effects on population status replicated previously reported strong effects of farmland breeding habitat (an effect apparently driven mostly by European birds), as well as strong effects of FID, body size, migratory habit and continent. Farmland birds are generally declining. Conclusions/Significance Flight initiation distance is related to population trends in a way that differs among continents opening new research possibilities concerning the causes of geographic differences in patterns of anti-predator behavior. PMID:25226165

  2. Assessment of vegetation trends in drylands from time series of earth observation data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fensholt, R.; Horion, S.; Tagesson, T.; Ehammer, A.; Grogan, K.; Tian, F.; Huber, S.; Verbesselt, J.; Prince, S.D.; Tucker, C.J.; Rasmussen, K.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter summarizes approaches to the detection of dryland vegetation change and methods for observing spatio-temporal trends from space. An overview of suitable long-term Earth Observation (EO) based datasets for assessment of global dryland vegetation trends is provided and a status map of

  3. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a ...

  4. Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

    2018-04-01

    This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced

  5. Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

    2002-12-01

    Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

  6. Characterization of Land Transitions Patterns from Multivariate Time Series Using Seasonal Trend Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit Parmentier

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing biophysical changes in land change areas over large regions with short and noisy multivariate time series and multiple temporal parameters remains a challenging task. Most studies focus on detection rather than the characterization, i.e., the manner by which surface state variables are altered by the process of changes. In this study, a procedure is presented to extract and characterize simultaneous temporal changes in MODIS multivariate times series from three surface state variables the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, land surface temperature (LST and albedo (ALB. The analysis involves conducting a seasonal trend analysis (STA to extract three seasonal shape parameters (Amplitude 0, Amplitude 1 and Amplitude 2 and using principal component analysis (PCA to contrast trends in change and no-change areas. We illustrate the method by characterizing trends in burned and unburned pixels in Alaska over the 2001–2009 time period. Findings show consistent and meaningful extraction of temporal patterns related to fire disturbances. The first principal component (PC1 is characterized by a decrease in mean NDVI (Amplitude 0 with a concurrent increase in albedo (the mean and the annual amplitude and an increase in LST annual variability (Amplitude 1. These results provide systematic empirical evidence of surface changes associated with one type of land change, fire disturbances, and suggest that STA with PCA may be used to characterize many other types of land transitions over large landscape areas using multivariate Earth observation time series.

  7. Long-term temperature trends and variability on Spitsbergen: the extended Svalbard Airport temperature series, 1898–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Øyvind Nordli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the few long instrumental records available for the Arctic is the Svalbard Airport composite series that hitherto began in 1911, with observations made on Spitsbergen, the largest island in the Svalbard Archipelago. This record has now been extended to 1898 with the inclusion of observations made by hunting and scientific expeditions. Temperature has been observed almost continuously in Svalbard since 1898, although at different sites. It has therefore been possible to create one composite series for Svalbard Airport covering the period 1898–2012, and this valuable new record is presented here. The series reveals large temperature variability on Spitsbergen, with the early 20th century warming as one striking feature: an abrupt change from the cold 1910s to the local maxima of the 1930s and 1950s. With the inclusion of the new data it is possible to show that the 1910s were colder than the years at the start of the series. From the 1960s, temperatures have increased, so the present temperature level is significantly higher than at any earlier period in the instrumental history. For the entire period, and for all seasons, there are positive, statistically significant trends. Regarding the annual mean, the total trend is 2.6°C/century, whereas the largest trend is in spring, at 3.9°C/century. In Europe, it is the Svalbard Archipelago that has experienced the greatest temperature increase during the latest three decades. The composite series may be downloaded from the home page of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and should be used with reference to the present article.

  8. Modeling trends of health and health related indicators in Ethiopia (1995-2008: a time-series study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigatu Tilahun H

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia has been publishing Health and Health related indicators of the country annually since 1987 E.C. These indicators have been of high importance in indicating the status of health in the country in those years. However, the trends/patterns of these indicators and the factors related to the trends have not yet been investigated in a systematic manner. In addition, there were minimal efforts to develop a model for predicting future values of Health and Health related indicators based on the current trend. Objectives The overall aim of this study was to analyze trends of and develop model for prediction of Health and Health related indicators. More specifically, it described the trends of Health and Health related indicators, identified determinants of mortality and morbidity indicators and developed model for predicting future values of MDG indicators. Methods This study was conducted on Health and Health related indicators of Ethiopia from the year 1987 E.C to 2000 E.C. Key indicators of Mortality and Morbidity, Health service coverage, Health systems resources, Demographic and socio-economic, and Risk factor indicators were extracted and analyzed. The trends in these indicators were established using trend analysis techniques. The determinants of the established trends were identified using ARIMA models in STATA. The trend-line equations were then used to predict future values of the indicators. Results Among the mortality indicators considered in this study, it was only Maternal Mortality Ratio that showed statistically significant decrement within the study period. The trends of Total Fertility Rate, physician per 100,000 population, skilled birth attendance and postnatal care coverage were found to have significant association with Maternal Mortality Ratio trend. There was a reversal of malaria parasite prevalence in 1999 E.C from Plasmodium Falciparum to Plasmodium Vivax. Based on

  9. Using a time-series statistical framework to quantify trends and abrupt change in US corn, soybean, and wheat yields from 1970-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Ives, A. R.; Turner, M. G.; Kucharik, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have identified global agricultural regions where "stagnation" of long-term crop yield increases has occurred. These studies have used a variety of simple statistical methods that often ignore important aspects of time series regression modeling. These methods can lead to differing and contradictory results, which creates uncertainty regarding food security given rapid global population growth. Here, we present a new statistical framework incorporating time series-based algorithms into standard regression models to quantify spatiotemporal yield trends of US maize, soybean, and winter wheat from 1970-2016. Our primary goal was to quantify spatial differences in yield trends for these three crops using USDA county level data. This information was used to identify regions experiencing the largest changes in the rate of yield increases over time, and to determine whether abrupt shifts in the rate of yield increases have occurred. Although crop yields continue to increase in most maize-, soybean-, and winter wheat-growing areas, yield increases have stagnated in some key agricultural regions during the most recent 15 to 16 years: some maize-growing areas, except for the northern Great Plains, have shown a significant trend towards smaller annual yield increases for maize; soybean has maintained an consistent long-term yield gains in the Northern Great Plains, the Midwest, and southeast US, but has experienced a shift to smaller annual increases in other regions; winter wheat maintained a moderate annual increase in eastern South Dakota and eastern US locations, but showed a decline in the magnitude of annual increases across the central Great Plains and western US regions. Our results suggest that there were abrupt shifts in the rate of annual yield increases in a variety of US regions among the three crops. The framework presented here can be broadly applied to additional yield trend analyses for different crops and regions of the Earth.

  10. Decreasing pH trend estimated from 25-yr time series of carbonate parameters in the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Midorikawa, Takashi; Ishii, Masao; Sasano, Daisuke; Kosugi, Naohiro (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (Japan)), e-mail: midorika@mri-jma.go.jp; Saito, Shu (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka (Japan)); Motoi, Tatsuo (Oceanographic Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)); Kamiya, Hitomi; Nakadate, Akira; Nemoto, Kazuhiro (Global Environment and Marine Dept., Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo (Japan)); Inoue, Hisayuki Y. (Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan))

    2010-11-15

    We estimated long-term trends of ocean acidification in surface waters in latitudinal zones from 3 deg N to 33 deg N along the repeat hydrographic line at 137 deg E in the western North Pacific Ocean. Estimates were based on the observational records of oceanic CO{sub 2} partial pressure and related surface properties over the last two decades. The computed pH time series both for 25 yr in winter (late January to early February) and for 21 yr in summer (June-July) exhibited significant decreasing trends in the extensive subtropical to equatorial zones, with interannual variations that were larger in summer. The calculated rates of pH decrease ranged from 0.0015 to 0.0021 yr-1 (average, 0.0018 +- 0.0002 yr-1) in winter and from 0.0008 to 0.0019 yr-1 (average, 0.0013 +- 0.0005 yr-1 ) in summer. The thermodynamic effects of rising sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for up to 44% (average, 15%) of the trend of pH decrease in the subtropical region in winter, whereas a trend of decreasing SST slowed the pH decrease in the northern subtropical region (around 25 deg N) in summer. We used the results from recent trends to evaluate future possible thermodynamic changes in the upper ocean carbonate system

  11. Less overdiagnosis of kidney cancer? an age-period-cohort analysis of incidence trends in 16 populations worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Znaor, Ariana; Laversanne, Mathieu; Bray, Freddie

    2017-09-01

    The increasing rates of kidney cancer incidence, reported in many populations globally, have been attributed both to increasing exposures to environmental risk factors, as well as increasing levels of incidental diagnosis due to widespread use of imaging. To better understand these trends, we examine long-term cancer registry data worldwide, focusing on the roles of birth cohort and calendar period, proxies for changes in risk factor prevalence and detection practice respectively. We used an augmented version of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series to analyze kidney cancer incidence rates 1978-2007 in 16 geographically representative populations worldwide by sex for ages 30-74, using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. The full APC model provided the best fit to the data in most studied populations. While kidney cancer incidence rates have been increasing in successive generations born from the early twentieth century in most countries, equivalent period-specific rises were observed from the late-1970s, although these have subsequently stabilized in certain European countries (the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Finland, Spain) as well as Japan from the mid-1990s, and from the mid-2000s, in Colombia, Costa Rica and Australia. Our results indicate that the effects of both birth cohort and calendar period contribute to the international kidney cancer incidence trends. While cohort-specific increases may partly reflect the rising trends in obesity prevalence and the need for more effective primary prevention policies, the attenuations in period-specific increases (observed in 8 of the 16 populations) highlight a possible change in imaging practices that could lead to mitigation of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. © 2017 UICC.

  12. A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther Quintero

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background. Mexico has the world’s fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species’ risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats.Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions.Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

  13. A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, Esther; Thessen, Anne E; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

    2014-01-01

    Background. Mexico has the world's fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species' risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

  14. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Dunn

    Full Text Available We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae, chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum, chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum. The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a

  15. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  16. Trends and variability of midlatitude stratospheric water vapour deduced from the re-evaluated Boulder balloon series and HALOE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Scherer

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an updated trend analysis of water vapour in the lower midlatitude stratosphere from the Boulder balloon-borne NOAA frostpoint hygrometer measurements and from the Halogen Occulation Experiment (HALOE. Two corrections for instrumental bias are applied to homogenise the frostpoint data series, and a quality assessment of all soundings after 1991 is presented. Linear trend estimates based on the corrected data for the period 1980–2000 are up to 40% lower than previously reported. Vertically resolved trends and variability are calculated with a multi regression analysis including the quasi-biennal oscillation and equivalent latitude as explanatory variables. In the range of 380 to 640 K potential temperature (≈14 to 25 km, the frostpoint data from 1981 to 2006 show positive linear trends between 0.3±0.3 and 0.7±0.1%/yr. The same dataset shows trends between −0.2±0.3 and 1.0±0.3%/yr for the period 1992 to 2005. HALOE data over the same time period suggest negative trends ranging from −1.1±0.2 to −0.1±0.1%/yr. In the lower stratosphere, a rapid drop of water vapour is observed in 2000/2001 with little change since. At higher altitudes, the transition is more gradual, with slowly decreasing concentrations between 2001 and 2007. This pattern is consistent with a change induced by a drop of water concentrations at entry into the stratosphere. Previously noted differences in trends and variability between frostpoint and HALOE remain for the homogenised data. Due to uncertainties in reanalysis temperatures and stratospheric transport combined with uncertainties in observations, no quantitative inference about changes of water entering the stratosphere in the tropics could be made with the mid latitude measurements analysed here.

  17. Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedy, Bradley C.; O'Donnell, Michael; Bowen, Zachary H.

    2015-01-01

    Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  18. Manual on Cost-Effectiveness of Training Modalities in Population Education. Population Education Programme Service Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Bangkok (Thailand). Principal Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific.

    This manual is the result of a regional training workshop on the cost-effectiveness of different training strategies in population education by Unesco in Kathmandu, Nepal, June 1-8, 1987. The purpose of the manual is to enable project staff to initiate studies to determine cost-effective training strategies in population growth control education.…

  19. Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

    2016-01-01

    Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count

  20. Abundance, distribution and population trends of Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus) in Gonarezhou National Park, Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zisadza-Gandiwa, P.; Gandiwa, E.; Jakarasi, J.; Westhuizen, van der H.; Muvengwi, J.

    2013-01-01

    The Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus) is an iconic or keystone species in many aquatic ecosystems. In order to understand the abundance, distribution, and population trends of Nile crocodiles in Gonarezhou National Park (GNP), southeastern Zimbabwe, we carried out 4 annual aerial surveys, using

  1. From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Matytsin, Mikhail; Moorty, Lalita; Richter, Kaspar

    2015-01-01

    Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in...

  2. Trends of forest area and population and the impact of population on forest area per hectare in Serbia without APS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranković Nenad

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Socio-economic changes throughout history have shaped the attitude towards the forest and most significant ones are changes in terms of population. Over the centuries population and population density have had a significant impact on deforestation and the reduction of forest areas. Therefore, it is important to check what kind of trends are concerned and how population growth affects forest areas, forest cover and forest area per capita. These elements are important for assessing the direction, intensity of activity and the degree of success in the implementation of all forest policy measures in Serbia. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 43007: Istraživanja klimatskih promena i njihovog uticaja na životnu sredinu - praćenje uticaja, adaptacija i ublažavanje, podprojekat, br. 43007/16-III: Socio-ekonomski razvoj, ublažavanje i adaptacija na klimatske promene

  3. Trends in high-risk sexual behaviors among general population groups in China: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W N; de Vlas, Sake J

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population.

  4. Bayes estimates of Markov trends in possibly cointegrated series: an application to US consumption and income

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractStylized facts show that average growth rates of US per capita consumption and income differ in recession and expansion periods. Since a linear combination of such series does not have to be a constant mean process, standard cointegration analysis between the variables to examine the

  5. A case series of pediatric seymour fractures related to hoverboards: Increasing trend with changing lifestyle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.E. Kattan

    2017-01-01

    Conclusion: We report a case series of a fracture pattern resulting from the improper/unsafe use of a hoverboard. This type of fracture occurs with a tremendous load of energy. Although improper use was a factor, design fault also plays a role in causing the injury. Parent awareness and supervision are important to prevent such injuries.

  6. Investigations of the trend followed in heat capacity of Re_6UO_1_2 (s) along lanthanide series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahu, Manjulata; Saxena, M.K.; Rawat, Deepak; Dash, Smruti

    2017-01-01

    The compound RE_6UO_1_2 (s) (RE = Ho, Er, Tm, Yb and Lu) was synthesized by complex polymerisation method and characterised using X-ray diffraction (XRD). Heat capacity measurements of RE_6UO_1_2 (s) were performed with heat flux-type differential scanning calorimeter in the temperature range of 300-870 K. The trend in heat capacity along the rare earth series was proposed for RE_6UO_1_2 (s) and thermodynamic functions were generated. (author)

  7. Mapping and Evaluation of NDVI Trends from Synthetic Time Series Obtained by Blending Landsat and MODIS Data around a Coalfield on the Loess Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Wang

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The increasingly intensive and extensive coal mining activities on the Loess Plateau pose a threat to the fragile local ecosystems. Quantifying the effects of coal mining activities on environmental conditions is of great interest for restoring and managing the local ecosystems and resources. This paper generates dense NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series between 2000 and 2011 at a spatial resolution of 30 m by blending Landsat and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data using the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM and further evaluates its capability for mapping vegetation trends around a typical coalfield on the Loss Plateau. Synthetic NDVI images were generated using (1 STARFM-generated NIR (near infrared and red band reflectance data (scheme 1 and (2 Landsat and MODIS NDVI images directly as inputs for STARFM (scheme 2. By comparing the synthetic NDVI images with the corresponding Landsat NDVI, we found that scheme 2 consistently generated better results (0.70 < R2 < 0.76 than scheme 1 (0.56 < R2 < 0.70 in this study area. Trend analysis was then performed with the synthetic dense NDVI time series and the annual maximum NDVI (NDVImax time series. The accuracy of these trends was evaluated by comparing to those from the corresponding MODIS time series, and it was concluded that both the trends from synthetic/MODIS NDVI dense time series and synthetic/MODIS NDVImax time series (2000–2011 were highly consistent. Compared to trends from MODIS time series, trends from synthetic time series are better able to capture fine scale vegetation changes. STARFM-generated synthetic NDVI time series could be used to quantify the effects of mining activities on vegetation, but the test areas should be selected with caution, as the trends derived from synthetic and MODIS time series may be significantly different in some areas.

  8. Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, J.R.; Dolton, D.D.; Droege, S.

    1994-01-01

    The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) Callcount Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ (P lt 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

  9. Understanding the H 2 Sorption Trends in the M-MOF-74 Series (M = Mg, Ni, Co, Zn)

    KAUST Repository

    Pham, Tony; Forrest, Katherine A.; Banerjee, Rahul; Orcajo, Gisela; Eckert, Juergen; Space, Brian

    2015-01-01

    © 2014 American Chemical Society. Electronic structure calculations and simulations of H2 sorption were performed in four members of the M-MOF-74 series: Mg-MOF-74, Ni-MOF-74, Co-MOF-74, and Zn-MOF-74. Notable differences were observed in the partial charge and polarizability of the metal ions derived from the electronic structure calculations. The modeling parameters obtained from the electronic structure calculations were found to influence certain features in the experimentally observed H2 sorption trends in the M-MOF-74 series. The simulations were performed with the inclusion of explicit many-body polarization, which was required to reproduce the experimental H2 sorption observables (i.e., sorption isotherms and isosteric heats of adsorption (Qst)) and the H2-metal interaction in all four MOFs using classical molecular simulation. Consistent with experimental measurements, the simulations captured the following trend for the H2-metal interaction strength: Ni-MOF-74 > Co-MOF-74 > Mg-MOF-74 > Zn-MOF-74. The calculations revealed that stronger H2-metal interactions within the M-MOF-74 series corresponded to shorter H2-metal distances and higher induced dipoles on the metal-sorbed H2 molecules. In addition, it was observed that there was a strong correlation between the H2-metal interaction and the polarization contribution. Although Mg-MOF-74 has the highest calculated partial charge for the metal ion within the series, the Mg2+ ion has a very low polarizability compared to the other M2+ ions; this explains why the H2-metal interaction in this MOF is weaker compared to those for Ni-MOF-74 and Co-MOF-74. The sterics interactions, reflected in the crystal structure for all four MOFs, also played a role for the observed H2 sorption trends. Zn-MOF-74 has the lowest H2 uptakes and Qst within the series due to an unfavorable geometric environment for the Zn2+ ions within the ZnO5 clusters. Lastly, the two-dimensional quantum rotational levels were calculated for the H

  10. Understanding the H 2 Sorption Trends in the M-MOF-74 Series (M = Mg, Ni, Co, Zn)

    KAUST Repository

    Pham, Tony

    2015-01-15

    © 2014 American Chemical Society. Electronic structure calculations and simulations of H2 sorption were performed in four members of the M-MOF-74 series: Mg-MOF-74, Ni-MOF-74, Co-MOF-74, and Zn-MOF-74. Notable differences were observed in the partial charge and polarizability of the metal ions derived from the electronic structure calculations. The modeling parameters obtained from the electronic structure calculations were found to influence certain features in the experimentally observed H2 sorption trends in the M-MOF-74 series. The simulations were performed with the inclusion of explicit many-body polarization, which was required to reproduce the experimental H2 sorption observables (i.e., sorption isotherms and isosteric heats of adsorption (Qst)) and the H2-metal interaction in all four MOFs using classical molecular simulation. Consistent with experimental measurements, the simulations captured the following trend for the H2-metal interaction strength: Ni-MOF-74 > Co-MOF-74 > Mg-MOF-74 > Zn-MOF-74. The calculations revealed that stronger H2-metal interactions within the M-MOF-74 series corresponded to shorter H2-metal distances and higher induced dipoles on the metal-sorbed H2 molecules. In addition, it was observed that there was a strong correlation between the H2-metal interaction and the polarization contribution. Although Mg-MOF-74 has the highest calculated partial charge for the metal ion within the series, the Mg2+ ion has a very low polarizability compared to the other M2+ ions; this explains why the H2-metal interaction in this MOF is weaker compared to those for Ni-MOF-74 and Co-MOF-74. The sterics interactions, reflected in the crystal structure for all four MOFs, also played a role for the observed H2 sorption trends. Zn-MOF-74 has the lowest H2 uptakes and Qst within the series due to an unfavorable geometric environment for the Zn2+ ions within the ZnO5 clusters. Lastly, the two-dimensional quantum rotational levels were calculated for the H

  11. Consuming the world's energy: Update series. Energy efficiency trends in oil countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This issue of Energy Detente addresses energy efficiency in selected oil producing countries over time and compare the varying effects of important crude oil price changes. As economies around the world heighten their benefits from conservation and efficient use of energy, oil producers will be crucial examples not only for their own sakes, but for consuming countries dependent upon their exports. In this sense, their potential for leadership and vision seems greater than ever. Specifically, 6 oil-exporting countries are featured: Australia, Kuwait, Indonesia, Nigeria, the United Kingdom, and Venezuela. This issue also presents the following: (1) the ED Refining Netback Data Series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore as of February 21, 1992; and (2) the ED Fuel Price/Tax Series for countries of the Eastern Hemisphere, February, 1992 edition

  12. Statistical tools for analysis and modeling of cosmic populations and astronomical time series: CUDAHM and TSE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Scargle, Jeffrey D.

    2018-01-01

    This presentation provides an overview of open-source software packages addressing two challenging classes of astrostatistics problems. (1) CUDAHM is a C++ framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of cosmic populations, leveraging graphics processing units (GPUs) to enable applying this computationally challenging paradigm to large datasets. CUDAHM is motivated by measurement error problems in astronomy, where density estimation and linear and nonlinear regression must be addressed for populations of thousands to millions of objects whose features are measured with possibly complex uncertainties, potentially including selection effects. An example calculation demonstrates accurate GPU-accelerated luminosity function estimation for simulated populations of $10^6$ objects in about two hours using a single NVIDIA Tesla K40c GPU. (2) Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a collection of software in Python and MATLAB for exploratory analysis and statistical modeling of astronomical time series. It comprises a library of stand-alone functions and classes, as well as an application environment for interactive exploration of times series data. The presentation will summarize key capabilities of this emerging project, including new algorithms for analysis of irregularly-sampled time series.

  13. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  14. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Paprocki

    Full Text Available Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1 and 7.74 km yr(-1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally

  15. Seasonal trend analysis and ARIMA modeling of relative humidity and wind speed time series around Yamula Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eymen, Abdurrahman; Köylü, Ümran

    2018-02-01

    Local climate change is determined by analysis of long-term recorded meteorological data. In the statistical analysis of the meteorological data, the Mann-Kendall rank test, which is one of the non-parametrical tests, has been used; on the other hand, for determining the power of the trend, Theil-Sen method has been used on the data obtained from 16 meteorological stations. The stations cover the provinces of Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat, and Nevşehir in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. Changes in land-use affect local climate. Dams are structures that cause major changes on the land. Yamula Dam is located 25 km northwest of Kayseri. The dam has huge water body which is approximately 85 km2. The mentioned tests have been used for detecting the presence of any positive or negative trend in meteorological data. The meteorological data in relation to the seasonal average, maximum, and minimum values of the relative humidity and seasonal average wind speed have been organized as time series and the tests have been conducted accordingly. As a result of these tests, the following have been identified: increase was observed in minimum relative humidity values in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. As for the seasonal average wind speed, decrease was detected for nine stations in all seasons, whereas increase was observed in four stations. After the trend analysis, pre-dam mean relative humidity time series were modeled with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model which is statistical modeling tool. Post-dam relative humidity values were predicted by ARIMA models.

  16. Golden eagle population trends in the western United States: 1968-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millsap, Brian A.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Sauer, John R.; Nielson, Ryan M.; Otto, Mark; Bjerre, Emily; Murphy, Robert K.

    2013-01-01

    In 2009, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service promulgated permit regulations for the unintentional lethal take (anthropogenic mortality) and disturbance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Accurate population trend and size information for golden eagles are needed so agency biologists can make informed decisions when eagle take permits are requested. To address this need with available data, we used a log-linear hierarchical model to average data from a late-summer aerial-line-transect distance-sampling survey (WGES) of golden eagles in the United States portions of Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 9 (Great Basin), BCR 10 (Northern Rockies), BCR 16 (Southern Rockies/Colorado Plateau), and BCR 17 (Badlands and Prairies) from 2006 to 2010 with late-spring, early summer Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data for the same BCRs and years to estimate summer golden eagle population size and trends in these BCRs. We used the ratio of the density estimates from the WGES to the BBS index to calculate a BCR-specific adjustment factor that scaled the BBS index (i.e., birds per route) to a density estimate. Our results indicated golden eagle populations were generally stable from 2006 to 2010 in the 4 BCRs, with an estimated average rate of population change of −0.41% (95% credible interval [CI]: −4.17% to 3.40%) per year. For the 4 BCRs and years, we estimated annual golden eagle population size to range from 28,220 (95% CI: 23,250–35,110) in 2007 to 26,490 (95% CI: 21,760–32,680) in 2008. We found a general correspondence in trends between WGES and BBS data for these 4 BCRs, which suggested BBS data were providing useful trend information. We used the overall adjustment factor calculated from the 4 BCRs and years to scale BBS golden eagle counts from 1968 to 2005 for the 4 BCRs and for 1968 to 2010 for the 8 other BCRs (without WGES data) to estimate golden eagle population size and trends across the western United States for the period 1968 to 2010. In general, we

  17. Time Trends in Breast Cancer Among Indian Women Population: An Analysis of Population Based Cancer Registry Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaturvedi, Meesha; Vaitheeswaran, K; Satishkumar, K; Das, Priyanka; Stephen, S; Nandakumar, A

    2015-12-01

    The trends observed in cancer breast among Indian women are an indication of effect of changing lifestyle in population. To draw an appropriate inference regarding the trends of a particular type of cancer in a country, it is imperative to glance at the reliable data collected by Population Based Cancer Registries over a period of time. To give an insight of changing trends of breast cancer which have taken place over a period of time among women in Cancer Registries of India. Breast Cancer trends for invasive breast cancer in women in Indian Registries have varied during the selected period. Occurrence of breast cancers has also shown geographical variation in India. This data was collected by means of a 'Standard Core Proforma' designed by NCRP conforming to the data fields as suggested by International norms. The Proforma was filled by trained Registry workers based on interview/ hospital medical records/ supplementing data by inputs from treating surgeons/radiation oncologists/involved physicians/pathologists. The contents of the Proforma are entered into specifically created software and transmitted electronically to the coordinating center at Bangalore. The registries contributing to more number of years of data are called as older registries, while other recently established registries are called newer registries. While there has been an increase recorded in breast cancer in most of the registries, some of them have recorded an insignificant increase. Comparison of Age Adjusted Rates (AARs) among Indian Registries has been carried out after which trends observed in populations covered by Indian Registries are depicted. A variation in broad age groups of females and the proneness of females developing breast cancer over the period 1982 to 2010 has been shown. Comparisons of Indian registries with International counterparts have also been carried out. There are marked changes in incidence rates of cancer breast which have occurred in respective registries in a

  18. Monitoring Population Evolution in China Using Time-Series DMSP/OLS Nightlight Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sisi Yu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate and detailed monitoring of population distribution and evolution is of great significance in formulating a population planning strategy in China. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS nighttime lights time-series (NLT image products offer a good opportunity for detecting the population distribution owing to its high correlation to human activities. However, their detection capability is greatly limited owing to a lack of in-flight calibration. At present, the synergistic use of systematically-corrected NLT products and population spatialization is rarely applied. This work proposed a methodology to improve the application precision and versatility of NLT products, explored a feasible approach to quantitatively spatialize the population to grid units of 1 km × 1 km , and revealed the spatio-temporal characteristics of population distribution from 2000 to 2010. Results indicated that, (1 after inter-calibration, geometric, incompatibility and discontinuity corrections, and adjustment based on vegetation information, the incompatibility and discontinuity of NTL products were successfully solved. Accordingly, detailed actual residential areas and luminance differences between the urban core and the peripheral regions could be obtained. (2 The population spatialization method could effectively acquire population information at per km 2 with high accuracy and exhibit more details in the evolution of population distribution. (3 Obvious differences in spatio-temporal characteristics existed in four economic regions, from the aspects of population distribution and dynamics, as well as population-weighted centroids. The eastern region was the most populous with the largest increased magnitude, followed by the central, northeastern, and western regions. The population-weighted centroids of the eastern, western, and northeastern regions moved along the southwest direction, while the population

  19. Trends in Health Information-Seeking Behaviour in the U.S. Foreign-Born Population Based on the Health Information National Trends Survey, 2005-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, JungWon; Huang, Hong; Soojung Kim

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: This study investigated trends in the health information-seeking behaviour of the U.S. foreign-born population over a ten-year period and examined whether health information disparities between this population and native-born citizens have decreased. Method: Data were collected from six iterations of the Health Information National…

  20. Trends in mortality and biological stress in a medieval polish urban population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betsinger, Tracy K; DeWitte, Sharon

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization in pre-modern populations may have had a variety of consequences related to population crowding. However, research on the effects of urbanization have provided inconsistent results regarding the biological impact of this transition on human populations. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that urbanization caused an increase in overall biological stress in a medieval (10th-13th centuries AD) Polish population. A human skeletal sample (n=164) was examined for the presence of porotic hyperostosis, cribra orbitalia, linear enamel hypoplasia, periosteal reaction, and specific infectious diseases. Prevalence rates were compared among three temporal samples: initial urbanization, early urbanization, and later urbanization. Results indicate no significant trends for any of the pathological conditions. Cox proportional hazards analyses, however, revealed a significant increase in the risk of death over time, which supports the hypothesis. These results reflect the necessity of using multiple analyses to address bioarchaeological questions. The lack of significant results from skeletal indicators may be due to an earlier urbanization trend in the population. This study illustrates that the association of urbanization with elevated biological stress is complicated and dependent on various factors, including culture and time period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. [Population trends and behavioral observations of wintering common cranes (Grus grus) in Yancheng Nature Reserve].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhong-Qiu; Wang, Zhi; Ge, Chen

    2013-10-01

    To understand the population status and behavioural features of wintering common cranes in the Yancheng Nature Reserve, two transects were established and population trends were monitored every month over five recent winters from 2008 to 2013. Wintering behaviours were also observed in order to explore the possible effects of family size and age on time budgets. Results indicated that the populations were stable with a range of 303 to 707 individuals. Negative effects of coastal developments were not found on the wintering population of common cranes, which might be related to their diets and preference for artificial wetland habitats. We found a significant effect of age on time budgets, with juveniles spending more time feeding and less time alerting, which might be related to the needs of body development and skill learning. Family size did not affect the time budgets of the cranes, which indicated that adults did not increase vigilance investment even when raising a larger family.

  2. Spatial analysis of cattle and shoat population in Ethiopia: growth trend, distribution and market access.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leta, Samson; Mesele, Frehiwot

    2014-01-01

    The livestock subsector has an enormous contribution to Ethiopia's national economy and livelihoods of many Ethiopians. The subsector contributes about 16.5% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.6% of the agricultural GDP. It also contributes 15% of export earnings and 30% of agricultural employment. The livestock subsector currently support and sustain livelihoods for 80% of all rural population. The GDP of livestock related activities valued at 59 billion birr. Ethiopian livestock population trends, distribution and marketing vary considerably across space and time due to a variety of reasons. This study was aimed to assess cattle and shoat population growth trend, distribution and their access to market. Regression analysis was used to assess the cattle and shoat population growth trend and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were used to determine the spatial distribution of cattle and shoats, and their relative access to market. The data sets used are agricultural census (2001/02) and annual CSA agricultural sample survey (1995/96 to 2012/13). In the past eighteen years, the livestock population namely cattle, sheep and goat grew from 54.5 million to over 103.5 million with average annual increment of 3.4 million. The current average national cattle, sheep and goat population per km(2) are estimated to be 71, 33 and 29 respectively (excluding Addis Ababa, Afar and Somali regions). From the total livestock population the country owns about 46% cattle, 43% sheep and 40% goats are reared within 10 km radius from major livestock market centres and all-weather roads. On the other hand, three fourth of the country's land mass which comprises 15% of the cattle, 20% of the sheep and 21% of goat population is not accessible to market (greater than 30 km from major livestock market centres). It is found that the central highland regions account for the largest share of livestock population and also more accessible to market. Defining the

  3. Gender parity trends for invited speakers at four prominent virology conference series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalejta, Robert F; Palmenberg, Ann C

    2017-06-07

    Scientific conferences are most beneficial to participants when they showcase significant new experimental developments, accurately summarize the current state of the field, and provide strong opportunities for collaborative networking. A top-notch slate of invited speakers, assembled by conference organizers or committees, is key to achieving these goals. The perceived underrepresentation of female speakers at prominent scientific meetings is currently a popular topic for discussion, but one that often lacks supportive data. We compiled the full rosters of invited speakers over the last 35 years for four prominent international virology conferences, the American Society for Virology Annual Meeting (ASV), the International Herpesvirus Workshop (IHW), the Positive-Strand RNA Virus Symposium (PSR), and the Gordon Research Conference on Viruses & Cells (GRC). The rosters were cross-indexed by unique names, gender, year, and repeat invitations. When plotted as gender-dependent trends over time, all four conferences showed a clear proclivity for male-dominated invited speaker lists. Encouragingly, shifts toward parity are emerging within all units, but at different rates. Not surprisingly, both selection of a larger percentage of first time participants and the presence of a woman on the speaker selection committee correlated with improved parity. Session chair information was also collected for the IHW and GRC. These visible positions also displayed a strong male dominance over time that is eroding slowly. We offer our personal interpretation of these data to aid future organizers achieve improved equity among the limited number of available positions for session moderators and invited speakers. IMPORTANCE Politicians and media members have a tendency to cite anecdotes as conclusions without any supporting data. This happens so frequently now, that a name for it has emerged: fake news. Good science proceeds otherwise. The under representation of women as invited

  4. Genome-wide Selective Sweeps in Natural Bacterial Populations Revealed by Time-series Metagenomics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chan, Leong-Keat; Bendall, Matthew L.; Malfatti, Stephanie; Schwientek, Patrick; Tremblay, Julien; Schackwitz, Wendy; Martin, Joel; Pati, Amrita; Bushnell, Brian; Foster, Brian; Kang, Dongwan; Tringe, Susannah G.; Bertilsson, Stefan; Moran, Mary Ann; Shade, Ashley; Newton, Ryan J.; Stevens, Sarah; McMcahon, Katherine D.; Mamlstrom, Rex R.

    2014-05-12

    Multiple evolutionary models have been proposed to explain the formation of genetically and ecologically distinct bacterial groups. Time-series metagenomics enables direct observation of evolutionary processes in natural populations, and if applied over a sufficiently long time frame, this approach could capture events such as gene-specific or genome-wide selective sweeps. Direct observations of either process could help resolve how distinct groups form in natural microbial assemblages. Here, from a three-year metagenomic study of a freshwater lake, we explore changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies and patterns of gene gain and loss in populations of Chlorobiaceae and Methylophilaceae. SNP analyses revealed substantial genetic heterogeneity within these populations, although the degree of heterogeneity varied considerably among closely related, co-occurring Methylophilaceae populations. SNP allele frequencies, as well as the relative abundance of certain genes, changed dramatically over time in each population. Interestingly, SNP diversity was purged at nearly every genome position in one of the Chlorobiaceae populations over the course of three years, while at the same time multiple genes either swept through or were swept from this population. These patterns were consistent with a genome-wide selective sweep, a process predicted by the ecotype model? of diversification, but not previously observed in natural populations.

  5. Genome-wide Selective Sweeps in Natural Bacterial Populations Revealed by Time-series Metagenomics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chan, Leong-Keat; Bendall, Matthew L.; Malfatti, Stephanie; Schwientek, Patrick; Tremblay, Julien; Schackwitz, Wendy; Martin, Joel; Pati, Amrita; Bushnell, Brian; Foster, Brian; Kang, Dongwan; Tringe, Susannah G.; Bertilsson, Stefan; Moran, Mary Ann; Shade, Ashley; Newton, Ryan J.; Stevens, Sarah; McMahon, Katherine D.; Malmstrom, Rex R.

    2014-06-18

    Multiple evolutionary models have been proposed to explain the formation of genetically and ecologically distinct bacterial groups. Time-series metagenomics enables direct observation of evolutionary processes in natural populations, and if applied over a sufficiently long time frame, this approach could capture events such as gene-specific or genome-wide selective sweeps. Direct observations of either process could help resolve how distinct groups form in natural microbial assemblages. Here, from a three-year metagenomic study of a freshwater lake, we explore changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies and patterns of gene gain and loss in populations of Chlorobiaceae and Methylophilaceae. SNP analyses revealed substantial genetic heterogeneity within these populations, although the degree of heterogeneity varied considerably among closely related, co-occurring Methylophilaceae populations. SNP allele frequencies, as well as the relative abundance of certain genes, changed dramatically over time in each population. Interestingly, SNP diversity was purged at nearly every genome position in one of the Chlorobiaceae populations over the course of three years, while at the same time multiple genes either swept through or were swept from this population. These patterns were consistent with a genome-wide selective sweep, a process predicted by the ‘ecotype model’ of diversification, but not previously observed in natural populations.

  6. Grizzly bear population vital rates and trend in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem, Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mace, R.D.; Carney, D.W.; Chilton-Radandt, T.; Courville, S.A.; Haroldson, M.A.; Harris, R.B.; Jonkel, J.; McLellan, B.; Madel, M.; Manley, T.L.; Schwartz, C.C.; Servheen, C.; Stenhouse, G.; Waller, J.S.; Wenum, E.

    2012-01-01

    We estimated grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population vital rates and trend for the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), Montana, between 2004 and 2009 by following radio-collared females and observing their fate and reproductive performance. Our estimates of dependent cub and yearling survival were 0.612 (95% CI = 0.300–0.818) and 0.682 (95% CI = 0.258–0.898). Our estimates of subadult and adult female survival were 0.852 (95% CI = 0.628–0.951) and 0.952 (95% CI = 0.892–0.980). From visual observations, we estimated a mean litter size of 2.00 cubs/litter. Accounting for cub mortality prior to the first observations of litters in spring, our adjusted mean litter size was 2.27 cubs/litter. We estimated the probabilities of females transitioning from one reproductive state to another between years. Using the stable state probability of 0.322 (95% CI = 0.262–0.382) for females with cub litters, our adjusted fecundity estimate (mx) was 0.367 (95% CI = 0.273–0.461). Using our derived rates, we estimated that the population grew at a mean annual rate of approximately 3% (λ = 1.0306, 95% CI = 0.928–1.102), and 71.5% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations produced estimates of λ > 1.0. Our results indicate an increasing population trend of grizzly bears in the NCDE. Coupled with concurrent studies of population size, we estimate that over 1,000 grizzly bears reside in and adjacent to this recovery area. We suggest that monitoring of population trend and other vital rates using radioed females be continued.

  7. Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

    2018-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

  8. Trends in the growth of population and labour force in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashmi, S S

    1990-01-01

    Trends in the growth of the population and labor force in Pakistan are examined and future prospects for growth of population and labor, particularly agriculture, are estimated. The definition of labor force as employed or seeking work after a short period of employment has led to a great disparity in results for women in the labor force. Past trends in population growth reflected a growth rate of 1.6% for the 1950's, and 2.4% in 1960. The population rose to 84.3 million in 1981 from 42.6 million in 1961, which intercensally was an increase of 3.6% per annum for 1961-72 and 3.1% per annum for 1972-81. The estimated rate for 1981-86 was 2.9%/year. The rural population doubled and the urban tripled. There was a net migration of 2.123 million to urban areas reported in the 1981 census. There is also evidence of a high sex ratio. Balochistan (7.1%) and Sindh (3.6%) provinces have the highest growth rates. Although the largest population is in the Punjab, the growth is the lowest at 2.7%. The population is primarily young -- 44.5% 15 years in 1981, which is the highest in the world. Under high, medium, and low levels of fertility, prospective trends are estimated for 2006 and 2031, and by sex every 5 years from 1981. Population under high fertility is expected to reach 270 million by 2031, which is 3.39 persons/hectare. The population/hectare of land under cultivation was 4.25 in 1981 and is expected to rise to 13.49 persons/hectare in 2031. 11 million acres could be brought under cultivation to reduce the ratio. However, there are ecological considerations as well as an employment problem. The dependency ratio under the high variant will decline from 76.8 persons 0-14 and 65 years/100 persons 15-64 years in 1986 to 70.3 in 2006 which is still considerably higher than other developing countries. It is suggested that replacement level fertility be attained as soon as possible. Under low fertility, replacement level can be reached by 2011 with strong political commitment

  9. Determining population trends and conservation status of the common quail (Coturnix coturnix in Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puigcerver, M.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we review the conservation status and population trends of the common quail (Coturnix coturnix from 1900 to the present. Data are sometimes contradictory with regard to the status of this species as it has some features that make it difficult to produce reliable population estimates. Recent data clearly suggest, either at a local scale or at a trans–national scale, that the Atlantic common quail populations have remained stable in the last two decades, and that restocking practices with farm–reared quails (hybrids with the Japanese quail, Coturnix japonica do not affect our estimates. The complex movement patterns showed by this species require special attention. Analysis of ring recoveries can give important information, especially about the nomadic movement of quails in search of suitable habitats after the destruction of winter cereal crops due to harvesting. Thus, when developing a breeding distribution model for this species, continuously updated information on seasonal habitat and weather must be included for optimal prediction. Including fortnightly data of vegetation indices in distribution models, for example, has shown good results. Obtaining reliable predictions about changes in species distribution and movements during the breeding period could provide useful knowledge about the conservation status and population trends and would help in the design of future management measures.

  10. Road Traffic Injury Trends in the City of Valledupar, Colombia. A Time Series Study from 2008 to 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Martín Rodríguez

    Full Text Available To analyze the behavior temporal of road-traffic injuries (RTI in Valledupar, Colombia from January 2008 to December 2012.An observational study was conducted based on records from the Colombian National Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences Institute regional office in Valledupar. Different variables were analyzed, such as the injured person's sex, age, education level, and type of road user; the timeframe, place and circumstances of crashes and the vehicles associated with the occurrence. Furthermore, a time series analysis was conducted using an auto-regressive integrated moving average.There were 105 events per month on an average, 64.9% of RTI involved men; 82.3% of the persons injured were from 18 to 59 years of age; the average age was 35.4 years of age; the road users most involved in RTI were motorcyclists (69%, followed by pedestrians (12%. 70% had up to upper-secondary education. Sunday was the day with the most RTI occurrences; 93% of the RTI occurred in the urban area. The time series showed a seasonal pattern and a significant trend effect. The modeling process verified the existence of both memory and extrinsic variables related.An RTI occurrence pattern was identified, which showed an upward trend during the period analyzed. Motorcyclists were the main road users involved in RTI, which suggests the need to design and implement specific measures for that type of road user, from regulations for graduated licensing for young drivers to monitoring road user behavior for the promotion of road safety.

  11. Technical specifications for monitoring Community trends in zoonotic agents in foodstuffs and animal populations on request from EFSA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borck Høg, Birgitte; Chriél, Mariann; Korsgaard, Helle

    of criteria for the selection of the zoonotic agent/animal or food category combinations where trend analyses would be justified. Based on data available from 2004 to 2007, the following combinations are suggested for trend analyses: Salmonella in fresh broiler and pig meat, flocks of laying hens and broilers......Technical specifications are proposed for the monitoring of temporal trends in zoonotic agents in animal and food populations at Community or Member State group level in the framework of Directive 2003/99/EC. Two types of trend monitoring are identified: trend watching, which covers general...

  12. Agricultural Set-aside Programs and Grassland Birds: Insights from Broad-scale Population Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Riffell

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP is a voluntary set-aside program in the United States designed to amelioratesoil erosion, control crop overproduction, enhance water quality, and provide wildlife habitat by replacing crops with other forms of land cover. Because CRP includes primarily grass habitats, it has great potential to benefitdeclining North American grassland bird populations. We looked at the change in national and state population trends of grassland birds and related changes to cover-specific CRP variables (previous research grouped all CRP practices. Changes in national trends after the initiation of the CRP were inconclusive, but we observed signficant bird-CRP relations at the state level. Most bird-CRP relations were positive, except for some species associated with habitats that CRP replaced. Practice- and configuration-specific CRP variables were related to grassland bird trends, rather than a generic measure of all CRP types combined. Considering all CRP land as a single, distinct habitat type may obscure actual relations between birds and set-aside characteristics. Understanding and predictingthe effects of set-aside programs (like CRP or agri-environment schemes on grassland birds is complex and difficult. Because available broad-scale datasets are less than adequate, studies should be conducted at a variety of spatial and temporal scales.

  13. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

    2012-01-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients.

  14. Current land bird distribution and trends in population abundance between 1982 and 2012 on Rota, Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Amidon, Fred A.; Radley, Paul M.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Banko, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    The western Pacific island of Rota is the fourth largest human-inhabited island in the Mariana archipelago and designated an Endemic Bird Area. Between 1982 and 2012, 12 point-transect distance-sampling surveys were conducted to assess bird population status. Surveys did not consistently sample the entire island; thus, we used a ratio estimator to estimate bird abundances in strata not sampled during every survey. Trends in population size were reliably estimated for 11 of 13 bird species, and 7 species declined over the 30-y time series, including the island collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata, white-throated ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Mariana fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, collared kingfisher Todiramphus chloris orii, Micronesian myzomela Myzomela rubratra, black drongo Dicrurus macrocercus, and Mariana crow Corvus kubaryi. The endangered Mariana crow (x̄  =  81 birds, 95% CI 30–202) declined sharply to fewer than 200 individuals in 2012, down from 1,491 birds in 1982 (95% CI  =  815–3,115). Trends increased for white tern Gygis alba, rufous fantail Rhipidura rufifrons mariae, and Micronesian starling Aplonis opaca. Numbers of the endangered Rota white-eye Zosterops rotensis declined from 1982 to the late 1990s but returned to 1980s levels by 2012, resulting in an overall stable trend. Trends for the yellow bittern Ixobrychus sinensis were inconclusive. Eurasian tree sparrow Passer montanus trends were not assessed; however, their numbers in 1982 and 2012 were similar. Occupancy models of the 2012 survey data revealed general patterns of land cover use and detectability among 12 species that could be reliably modeled. Occupancy was not assessed for the Eurasian tree sparrow because of insufficient detections. Based on the 2012 survey, bird distribution and abundance across Rota revealed three general patterns: 1) range restriction, including Mariana crow, Rota white-eye, and Eurasian tree sparrow; 2) widespread distribution, low

  15. Study on homogenization of synthetic GNSS-retrieved IWV time series and its impact on trend estimates with autoregressive noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, Anna; Pottiaux, Eric; Van Malderen, Roeland; Bock, Olivier; Bogusz, Janusz

    2017-04-01

    A synthetic benchmark dataset of Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) was created within the activity of "Data homogenisation" of sub-working group WG3 of COST ES1206 Action. The benchmark dataset was created basing on the analysis of IWV differences retrieved by Global Positioning System (GPS) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecats (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA-Interim). Having analysed a set of 120 series of IWV differences (ERAI-GPS) derived for IGS stations, we delivered parameters of a number of gaps and breaks for every certain station. Moreover, we estimated values of trends, significant seasonalities and character of residuals when deterministic model was removed. We tested five different noise models and found that a combination of white and autoregressive processes of first order describes the stochastic part with a good accuracy. Basing on this analysis, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of 25 years long data with two different types of noise: white as well as combination of white and autoregressive processes. We also added few strictly defined offsets, creating three variants of synthetic dataset: easy, less-complicated and fully-complicated. The 'Easy' dataset included seasonal signals (annual, semi-annual, 3 and 4 months if present for a particular station), offsets and white noise. The 'Less-complicated' dataset included above-mentioned, as well as the combination of white and first order autoregressive processes (AR(1)+WH). The 'Fully-complicated' dataset included, beyond above, a trend and gaps. In this research, we show the impact of manual homogenisation on the estimates of trend and its error. We also cross-compare the results for three above-mentioned datasets, as the synthetized noise type might have a significant influence on manual homogenisation. Therefore, it might mostly affect the values of trend and their uncertainties when inappropriately handled. In a future, the synthetic dataset

  16. Pathways, levels and trends of population exposure after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balonov, M.; Jacob, P.; Likhtarev, D.; Minenko, V.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper main regularities of the long-term exposure of the population of former USSR after the Chernobyl accident are described. Influence of some natural, human and social factors on the forming of external and internal dose in the rural and urban population was studied in the most contaminated regions of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine during 1986-1994. Radioecological processes of I, Cs and Sr nuclides migration in biosphere influencing the processes of population dose formation are considered. The model of their intake in human body was developed and validated by large-scaled measurements of the human body content. The model of external exposure of different population groups was developed and confirmed by the series of individual external dose measurements with thermoluminescent dosemeters. General dosimetric characteristics of the population exposure are given along with some samples of accumulated external and internal effective doses in inhabitants of contaminated areas in 1986-1995. Forecast of the external and internal population effective dose is given for the period of 70 years after the accident

  17. Urbanization is Associated with Increased Trends in Cardiovascular Mortality Among Indigenous Populations: the PAI Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson da Costa Armstrong

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: The cardiovascular risk burden among diverse indigenous populations is not totally known and may be influenced by lifestyle changes related to the urbanization process. Objectives: To investigate the cardiovascular (CV mortality profile of indigenous populations during a rapid urbanization process largely influenced by governmental infrastructure interventions in Northeast Brazil. Methods: We assessed the mortality of indigenous populations (≥ 30 y/o from 2007 to 2011 in Northeast Brazil (Bahia and Pernambuco states. Cardiovascular mortality was considered if the cause of death was in the ICD-10 CV disease group or if registered as sudden death. The indigenous populations were then divided into two groups according to the degree of urbanization based on anthropological criteria:9,10 Group 1 - less urbanized tribes (Funi-ô, Pankararu, Kiriri, and Pankararé; and Group 2 - more urbanized tribes (Tuxá, Truká, and Tumbalalá. Mortality rates of highly urbanized cities (Petrolina and Juazeiro in the proximity of indigenous areas were also evaluated. The analysis explored trends in the percentage of CV mortality for each studied population. Statistical significance was established for p value < 0.05. Results: There were 1,333 indigenous deaths in tribes of Bahia and Pernambuco (2007-2011: 281 in Group 1 (1.8% of the 2012 group population and 73 in Group 2 (3.7% of the 2012 group population, CV mortality of 24% and 37%, respectively (p = 0.02. In 2007-2009, there were 133 deaths in Group 1 and 44 in Group 2, CV mortality of 23% and 34%, respectively. In 2009-2010, there were 148 deaths in Group 1 and 29 in Group 2, CV mortality of 25% and 41%, respectively. Conclusions: Urbanization appears to influence increases in CV mortality of indigenous peoples living in traditional tribes. Lifestyle and environmental changes due to urbanization added to suboptimal health care may increase CV risk in this population.

  18. An evaluation of marine bird population trends following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, Prince William Sound, Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lance, Brian K.; Irons, David B.; Kendall, Steven J.; McDonald, Lyman L.

    2001-01-01

    We examined post-spill trends (1989-1998) of marine bird populations in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) to evaluate recovery of injured taxa. Two criteria were employed. First, we examined population trends of injured taxa only in the oiled area of PWS using regression models. Second, we examined population trends of injured taxa in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area using homogeneity of the slopes tests. We considered a population recovering if there was a positive trend using either criteria. We considered a population not recovering if there was no trend using either criteria or a negative trend in the oiled area. A significant negative trend in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area was considered a continuing and increasing effect. Most taxa for which injury was previously demonstrated were not recovering and some taxa showed evidence of increasing effects nine years after the oil spill. Four taxa (loons Gavia spp, Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus, Bufflehead Bucephala spp, and North-western Crow Corvus caurinus) showed weak to very weak evidence of recovery. None of these taxa showed positive trends in both winter and summer. Nine taxa (grebes Podiceps spp, cormorants Phalacrocorax spp, Black Oystercatcher Haematopus bachmani, Mew Gull Larus canus, Glaucous-winged Gull Larus glaucescens, terns Sterna spp, murres Uria spp, Pigeon Guillemot Cepphus columba, and murrelets Brachyramphus spp) showed no evidence of recovery during summer or winter. Four taxa (scoters Melanitta spp, mergansers Mergus spp, goldeneyes Bucephala spp, and Black-legged Kittiwake Rissa tridactyla) showed evidence of continuing, increasing effects. We showed evidence of slow recovery, lack of recovery, and divergent population trends in many taxa which utilise shoreline and nearshore habitats where oil is likely to persist. Potential lingering spill effects and natural variability appear to be acting in concert in delaying

  19. Recent Trends in Veteran Unemployment as Measured in the Current Population Survey and the American Community Survey

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Savych, Bogdan; Klerman, Jacob A; Loughran, David S

    2008-01-01

    This technical report explores recent trends in the unemployment of recent veterans as estimated from two nationally representative surveys, the Current Population Survey "CPS" and the American Community Survey "ACS...

  20. Trends in adherence to recommended cancer screening: The US population and working cancer survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tainya C. Clarke

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Over the past decade the United States has seen a decrease in advanced cancer diagnoses. There has also been an increase in the number of cancer survivors returning to work. Cancer screening behaviors among survivors may play an important role in their return-to-work process. Adherence to a post-treatment cancer screening protocol increases early detection of secondary tumors and reduces potentially limiting side-effects. We compared screening trends among all cancer survivors, working survivors, and the general population over the last decade.Methods: Trends in adherence to recommended screening were analyzed by site-specific cancer. We used the Healthy People goals as a measure of desired adherence. We selected participants 18+ years from 1997 to 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS for years where detailed cancer screening information was available. Using the recommendations of the American Cancer Society as a guide, we assessed adherence to cancer screening across the decade. There were 174,393 participants. Analyses included 7,528 working cancer survivors representing 3.8 million US workers, and 119,374 adults representing more than 100 million working Americans with no cancer history.Results: The US population met the Healthy People 2010 goal for colorectal screening, but declined in all other recommended cancer screening. Cancer survivors met and maintained the HP2010 goal for all, except cervical cancer screening. Survivors had higher screening rates than the general population. Among survivors, white-collar and service occupations had higher screening rates than blue-collar survivors.Conclusions: Cancer survivors report higher screening rates than the general population. Nevertheless, national screening rates are lower than desired, and disparities exist by cancer history and occupation. Understanding existing disparities, and the impact of cancer screening on survivors is crucial as the number of working survivors

  1. Trends in the breeding population and driving factors of Adélie penguin in the Ross Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, H.; Li, X.; Cheng, X.

    2017-12-01

    Ross Sea regions have been characterized by high penguin-chick-rearing habitat suitability in the recent past. Many studies have been done to study the Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea. However, the data they used both had advantages and drawbacks. Besides, little quantitative analysis were carried out to study the impact factors on the penguin population change. In this study, penguin population data from MAPPPD (Mapping application for penguin populations and projected dynamics) and IBA (Important bird areas in Antarctica) were integrated and analyzed to study the distribution and trends in the breeding population of Adélie penguin over time in the Ross Sea. In addition, linear fitting method for spatial data in time series were used to study the driving factors such as 2m-temperature, sea ice cover and chlorophyll-a concentration which can quantify phytoplankton blooms. Results indicated that there were 45 Adélie penguin colonies in the Ross Sea. Cape Adare and Cape Crozier were two biggest colonies on which current Adélie penguin abundance were 428516 and 280787 breeding pairs, respectively. Among these colonies, penguin population on 28 colonies increased, on 5 colonies decreased and on 5 colonies remained no change over time, and there were also 5 new colonies and one colony which were extinct. It was found that Adélie penguin population in most of colonies in the Ross Sea increased, which meant that Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea were "climate change winners". The main reasons for the increase in Adélie penguin population in the Ross Sea might be the rise in 2m-temperature and the increase in sea ice cover and phytoplankton. Higher temperatures have resulted in glacial retreat and snow melting, which leads to an increase in available habitat for penguins. The increased sea ice and phytoplankton might positively affect the abundance of Antarctic krill that was the major prey item for Adélie penguins in Antarctic.

  2. Breeding Status and Population Trends of Golden Eagles in Northeastern Québec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Morneau

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In North America, it is hypothesized that the Golden Eagle's (Aquila chrysaetos eastern population declined during the period 1946-1973 because of organochlorine pesticides and other anthropogenic causes of mortality. Since 1970, upward trends for the species have been observed at most eastern hawkwatches. To determine whether such positive trends can be observed on breeding grounds, Golden Eagle counts were performed to monitor nesting territory occupancy between 1994 and 2007 in the Moisie and Sainte-Marguerite River valleys, northeastern Québec. Aerial surveys were conducted during seven of the 14 years. During this period, the number of known nesting territories in the study area increased from 10 to 20, while the number of pairs rose from six to 14. The increase is attributed mostly to investigators' improved experience in finding nests and to their greater familiarity with the study area, and possibly to the growth of the regional population. Occupancy of nesting territories by pairs was very stable over the years. Annual mean % of laying pairs (or laying rate was 48.0 (SD = 19.9, and productivity (mean number of fledglings per pair was 0.49 (SD = 0.35.

  3. Time trends in physical activity in leisure time in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Helge, Jørn Wulff

    2010-01-01

    AIMS: To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005. METHODS: Analyses were based on four national representative population surveys of 4752 respondents in 1987, 4667 in 1994, 16,688 in 2000, and 14,566 in 2005. Associations between leisure......-time physical activity (dichotomised into high versus low) and temporal changes according to year of birth, age, and calendar-year were estimated in an age-period-cohort logistic regression model. Time trends in socioeconomic differences in physical activity were analysed by testing interaction terms. RESULTS......: The odds ratio (OR) of being highly physically active in leisure time in 2005 compared to 1987 was 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9) among men and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2) among women. The age- and calendar-year-adjusted probability of being highly physically active increased with year of birth. The OR of being highly...

  4. The farming population in Ireland: mortality trends during the 'Celtic Tiger' years.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Smyth, Breda

    2012-03-21

    Background Although the Irish farming population is a significant occupational group, analysis of their mortality patterns is limited. This study compared mortality trends with other occupational groups and assessed the impact of socio-economic factors. Methods Population and mortality data (2000-06) were obtained to calculate standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) by cause of death and matched with socio-economic data. The extent to which variation in mortality was explained by variations in the socio-economic data was determined using multiple regression. Results Farmers and agricultural workers experienced the highest levels of mortality for all causes of death (2000-06). Farmers are 5.14 times more likely and agricultural workers are 7.35 times more likely to die from any cause of death than the lowest risk group. Circulatory disease is a significant cause of mortality among farmers [SMR = 215.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 201.83-229.98]. Other significant causes include cancers (SMR = 156.60, CI = 146.73-166.48) and injuries and poisonings (SMR = 149.69, CI = 135.44-163.93). Agricultural workers have similar mortality trends: circulatory disease (SMR = 226.27; CI = 192.45-260.08), cancers (SMR = 221.44; CI = 193.88-249.00), and injuries and poisonings (SMR = 353.90; CI = 302.48-405.32). From 2000 to 2006, SMRs increased incrementally. Multiple regression identified farm size and income poverty risk as predictors of mortality. Conclusion Irish farmers and agricultural workers have experienced a reversal of mortality trends compared to the 1980s and 1990s. Policies should target them as a high-risk group.

  5. Incidence of infective endocarditis in England, 2000-13: a secular trend, interrupted time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

    2015-03-28

    Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], pinfective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, pinfective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions

  6. A Population Study of Golden Eagles in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area: Population Trend Analysis, 1994-1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Predatory Bird Research Group Long Marine Laboratory

    1999-01-01

    The wind industry has annually reported 28-43 turbine blade strike casualties of golden eagles in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, and many more carcasses have doubtless gone unnoticed. Because this species is especially sensitive to adult survival rate changes, we focused upon estimating the demographic trend of the population. In aerial surveys, we monitored survival within a sample of 179 radio-tagged eagles over a four-year period. We also obtained data on territory occupancy and reproduction of about 65 eagle pairs residing in the area. Of 61 recorded deaths of radio-tagged eagles during the four-year investigation, 23 (38%) were caused by wind turbine blade strikes. Additional fatalities were unrecorded because blade strikes sometimes destroy radio transmitters. Annual survival was estimated at 0.7867 (SE=0.0263) for non-territorial eagles and 0.8964 (SE=0.0371) for territorial ones. Annual reproduction was 0.64 (SE=0.08) young per territorial pair (0.25 per female). These parameters were used to estimate population growth rates under different modeling frameworks. At present, there are indications that a reserve of non-breeding adults still exists, i.e., there is an annual territorial re-occupancy rate of 100% and a low incidence (3%) of sub-adults as members of breeding pairs

  7. A Population Study of Golden Eagles in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area: Population Trend Analysis, 1994-1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, W. G.; Jackman, R. E.; Hunt, T. L.; Driscoll, D. E.; Culp, L.

    1999-07-20

    The wind industry has annually reported 28-43 turbine blade strike casualties of golden eagles in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, and many more carcasses have doubtless gone unnoticed. Because this species is especially sensitive to adult survival rate changes, we focused upon estimating the demographic trend of the population. In aerial surveys, we monitored survival within a sample of 179 radio-tagged eagles over a four-year period. We also obtained data on territory occupancy and reproduction of about 65 eagle pairs residing in the area. Of 61 recorded deaths of radio-tagged eagles during the four-year investigation, 23 (38%) were caused by wind turbine blade strikes. Additional fatalities were unrecorded because blade strikes sometimes destroy radio transmitters. Annual survival was estimated at 0.7867 (SE=0.0263) for non-territorial eagles and 0.8964 (SE=0.0371) for territorial ones. Annual reproduction was 0.64 (SE=0.08) young per territorial pair (0.25 per female). These parameters were used to estimate population growth rates under different modeling frameworks. At present, there are indications that a reserve of non-breeding adults still exists, i.e., there is an annual territorial reoccupancy rate of 100% and a low incidence (3%) of subadults as members of breeding pairs.

  8. FLT3 mutation incidence and timing of origin in a population case series of pediatric leukemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Jeffrey

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mutations in FLT3 result in activated tyrosine kinase activity, cell growth stimulation, and a poor prognosis among various subtypes of leukemia. The causes and timing of the mutations are not currently known. We evaluated the prevalence and timing of origin of FLT3 mutations in a population series of childhood leukemia patients from Northern California. Methods We screened and sequenced FLT3 mutations (point mutations and internal tandem duplications, ITDs among 517 childhood leukemia patients, and assessed whether these mutations occurred before or after birth using sensitive "backtracking" methods. Results We determined a mutation prevalence of 9 of 73 acute myeloid leukemias (AMLs, 12% and 9 of 441 acute lymphocytic leukemias (ALLs, 2%. Among AMLs, FLT3 mutations were more common in older patients, and among ALLs, FLT3 mutations were more common in patients with high hyperdiploidy (3.7% than those without this cytogenetic feature (1.4%. Five FLT3 ITDs, one deletion mutation, and 3 point mutations were assessed for their presence in neonatal Guthrie spots using sensitive real-time PCR techniques, and no patients were found to harbor FLT3 mutations at birth. Conclusions FLT3 mutations were not common in our population-based patient series in California, and patients who harbor FLT3 mutations most likely acquire them after they are born.

  9. Low frequency of defective mismatch repair in a population-based series of upper urothelial carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ericson, Kajsa M; Isinger, Anna P; Isfoss, Björn L; Nilbert, Mef C

    2005-01-01

    Upper urothelial cancer (UUC), i.e. transitional cell carcinomas of the renal pelvis and the ureter, occur at an increased frequency in patients with hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC). Defective mismatch repair (MMR) specifically characterizes HNPCC-associated tumors, but also occurs in subsets of some sporadic tumors, e.g. in gastrointestinal cancer and endometrial cancer. We assessed the contribution of defective MMR to the development of UUC in a population-based series from the southern Swedish Cancer Registry, through microsatellite instability (MSI) analysis and immunohistochemical evaluation of expression of the MMR proteins MLH1, PMS2, MSH2, and MSH6. A MSI-high phenotype was identified in 9/216 (4%) successfully analyzed patients and a MSI-low phenotype in 5/216 (2%). Loss of MMR protein immunostaining was found in 11/216 (5%) tumors, and affected most commonly MSH2 and MSH6. This population-based series indicates that somatic MMR inactivation is a minor pathway in the development of UUC, but tumors that display defective MMR are, based on the immunohistochemical expression pattern, likely to be associated with HNPCC

  10. Low frequency of defective mismatch repair in a population-based series of upper urothelial carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isfoss Björn L

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Upper urothelial cancer (UUC, i.e. transitional cell carcinomas of the renal pelvis and the ureter, occur at an increased frequency in patients with hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC. Defective mismatch repair (MMR specifically characterizes HNPCC-associated tumors, but also occurs in subsets of some sporadic tumors, e.g. in gastrointestinal cancer and endometrial cancer. Methods We assessed the contribution of defective MMR to the development of UUC in a population-based series from the southern Swedish Cancer Registry, through microsatellite instability (MSI analysis and immunohistochemical evaluation of expression of the MMR proteins MLH1, PMS2, MSH2, and MSH6. Results A MSI-high phenotype was identified in 9/216 (4% successfully analyzed patients and a MSI-low phenotype in 5/216 (2%. Loss of MMR protein immunostaining was found in 11/216 (5% tumors, and affected most commonly MSH2 and MSH6. Conclusion This population-based series indicates that somatic MMR inactivation is a minor pathway in the development of UUC, but tumors that display defective MMR are, based on the immunohistochemical expression pattern, likely to be associated with HNPCC.

  11. Low frequency of defective mismatch repair in a population-based series of upper urothelial carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ericson, Kajsa M; Isinger, Anna P [Departments of Oncology, University Hospital, Lund (Sweden); Isfoss, Björn L [Departments of Pathology, University Hospital, Lund (Sweden); Nilbert, Mef C [Departments of Oncology, University Hospital, Lund (Sweden)

    2005-01-01

    Upper urothelial cancer (UUC), i.e. transitional cell carcinomas of the renal pelvis and the ureter, occur at an increased frequency in patients with hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC). Defective mismatch repair (MMR) specifically characterizes HNPCC-associated tumors, but also occurs in subsets of some sporadic tumors, e.g. in gastrointestinal cancer and endometrial cancer. We assessed the contribution of defective MMR to the development of UUC in a population-based series from the southern Swedish Cancer Registry, through microsatellite instability (MSI) analysis and immunohistochemical evaluation of expression of the MMR proteins MLH1, PMS2, MSH2, and MSH6. A MSI-high phenotype was identified in 9/216 (4%) successfully analyzed patients and a MSI-low phenotype in 5/216 (2%). Loss of MMR protein immunostaining was found in 11/216 (5%) tumors, and affected most commonly MSH2 and MSH6. This population-based series indicates that somatic MMR inactivation is a minor pathway in the development of UUC, but tumors that display defective MMR are, based on the immunohistochemical expression pattern, likely to be associated with HNPCC.

  12. Mountain goat abundance and population trends in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Kurt; Happe, Patricia; Griffin, Paul C.; Beirne, Katherine; Hoffman, Roger; Baccus, William

    2011-01-01

    We conducted an aerial helicopter survey between July 18 and July 25, 2011, to estimate abundance and trends of introduced mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in the Olympic Mountains. The survey was the first since we developed a sightability correction model in 2008, which provided the means to estimate the number of mountain goats present in the surveyed areas and not seen during the aerial surveys, and to adjust for undercounting biases. Additionally, the count was the first since recent telemetry studies revealed that the previously defined survey zone, which was delineated at lower elevations by the 1,520-meter elevation contour, did not encompass all lands used by mountain goats during summer. We redefined the lower elevation boundary of survey units before conducting the 2011 surveys in an effort to more accurately estimate the entire mountain goat population. We surveyed 39 survey units, comprising 39 percent of the 59,615-hectare survey area. We estimated a mountain goat population of 344±44 (standard error, SE) in the expanded survey area. Based on this level of estimation uncertainty, the 95-percent confidence interval ranged from 258 to 430 mountain goats at the time of the survey. To permit comparisons of mountain goat populations between the 2004 and 2011 surveys, we recomputed population estimates derived from the 2004 survey using the newly developed bias correction methods, and we computed the 2004 and 2011 surveys based on comparable survey zone definitions (for example, using the boundaries of the 2004 survey). The recomputed estimates of mountain goat populations were 217±19 (SE) in 2004 and 303±41(SE) in 2011. The difference between the current 2011 population estimate (344±44[SE]) and the recomputed 2011 estimate (303±41[SE]) reflects the number of mountain goats counted in the expanded lower elevation portions of the survey zone added in 2011. We conclude that the population of mountain goats has increased in the Olympic Mountains at

  13. Recent fertility and mortality trends among aboriginal and nonaboriginal populations of central Siberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, W R; Keenleyside, A; Ivakine, E

    1997-06-01

    We examine mortality and fertility patterns of aboriginal (primarily Evenki and Keto) and Russian (i.e., nonaboriginal) populations from the Baykit District of Central Siberia for the period 1982-1994. Mortality rates in the aboriginal population of Baykit are substantially greater than those observed in the Russians and are comparable to levels recently reported for other indigenous Siberian groups. Infant mortality rates average 48 per 1000 live births among Baykit aboriginals, three times greater than the Russians of the district (15 per 1000 births) and more than double the rates for Inuit and Indian populations of Canada. Similarly, crude death rates of the Baykit aboriginals are twice as high as those observed in either the Baykit Russians or the Canadian aboriginal populations (13 vs 6-7 deaths per 1000 individuals). Birth rates of the indigenous population of Baykit are higher than those of the Russians (33 vs. 15 births per 1000 individuals) but are comparable to those of Canadian aboriginal groups. Violence and accidents are the leading causes of adult male mortality in both ethnic groups, whereas circulatory diseases have emerged as the prime cause of death in women. The greater male mortality resulting from violence and accidents is a widely observed cross-cultural phenomenon. The emergence of circulatory diseases as a major mortality risk for women, however, appears to be linked to specific lifestyle changes associated with Soviet reorganization of indigenous Siberian societies. Marked declines in mortality and increases in fertility were observed in the Baykit aboriginal population during the mid to late 1980s with the government's implementation of anti-alcohol policies. The decline in mortality, however, was largely erased during the early 1990s, as the region became increasingly isolated and marginalized following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Demographic trends in the Baykit District suggest that because the indigenous groups have become more

  14. Proceedings of the 2015 international summit on fibropapillomatosis: Global status, trends, and population impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargrove, Stacy A.; Work, Thierry M.; Brunson, Shandell; Foley, Allen M.; Balazs, George H.

    2016-01-01

    The 2015 International Summit on Fibropapillomatosis (FP) was convened in Honolulu, Hawaii June 11-14, 2015. Scientists from around the world were invited to present results from sea turtle monitoring and research programs as they relate to the global status, trends, and population impacts of FP on green turtles. The participants engaged in discussions that resulted in the following conclusions: 1.Globally, FP has long been present in wild sea turtle populations the earliest mention was in the late 1800s in the Florida Keys. 2.FP primarily affects medium-sized immature turtles in coastal foraging pastures. 3.Expression of FP differs across ocean basins and to some degree within basins. Turtles in the Southeast US, Caribbean, Brazil, and Australia rarely have oral tumors (inside the mouth cavity), whereas they are common and often severe in Hawaii. Internal tumors (on vital organs) occur in the Atlantic and Hawaii, but only rarely in Australia. Liver tumors are common in Florida but not in Hawaii. 4.Recovery from FP through natural processes, when the affliction is not severe, has been documented in wild populations globally. 5.FP causes reduced survivorship, but documented mortality rates in Australia and Hawaii are low. The mortality impact of FP is not currently exceeding population growth rates in some intensively monitored populations (e.g., Florida, Hawaii) as evidenced by increasing nesting trends despite the incidence of FP in immature foraging populations. 6.Pathogens, hosts, and potential disease and environmental cofactors have the capacity to change; while we are having success now, there needs to be continued monitoring to detect changes in the distribution, occurrence, and severity of the disease. 7.While we do not have clear evidence to provide the direct link, globally, the preponderance of sites with a high frequency of FP tumors are areas with some degree of degradation resulting from altered watersheds. Watershed management and responsible coastal

  15. Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

    1993-07-01

    Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

  16. Demographic Subgroup Trends among Adolescents in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2013. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 81

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

    2014-01-01

    This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup trends for U.S. secondary school students in a series of figures and tables. It supplements two of four annual monographs from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, namely the "Overview of Key Findings" and "Volume I: Secondary School Students." MTF is funded by the…

  17. Demographic Trends of Adults in New York City Opioid Treatment Programs--An Aging Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Benjamin; Polydorou, Soteri; Ferris, Rosie; Blaum, Caroline S; Ross, Stephen; McNeely, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    The population of adults accessing opioid treatment is growing older, but exact estimates vary widely, and little is known about the characteristics of the aging treatment population. Further, there has been little research regarding the epidemiology, healt h status, and functional impairments in this population. To determine the utilization of opioid treatment services by older adults in New York City. This study used administrative data from New York State licensed drug treatment programs to examine overall age trends and characteristics of older adults in opioid treatment programs in New York City from 1996 to 2012. We found significant increases in utilization of opioid treatment programs by older adults in New York City. By 2012, those aged 50-59 made up the largest age group in opioid treatment programs. Among older adults there were notable shifts in demographic background including gender and ethnicity, and an increase in self-reported impairments. More research is needed to fully understand the specific characteristics and needs of older adults with opioid dependence.

  18. How abnormal is binge eating? 18-Year time trends in population prevalence and burden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchison, D; Touyz, S; González-Chica, D A; Stocks, N; Hay, P

    2017-08-01

    Although findings suggest that binge eating is becoming increasingly normative, the 'clinical significance' of this behaviour at a population level remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the time trends in binge-eating prevalence and burden over 18 years. Six cross-sectional face-to-face surveys of the Australian adult population were conducted in 1998, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2014, and 2015 (N total = 15 126). Data were collected on demographics, 3-month prevalence of objective binge eating (OBE), health-related quality of life, days out of role, and distress related to OBE. The prevalence of OBE increased six-fold from 1998 (2.7%) to 2015 (13.0%). Health-related quality of life associated with OBE improved from 1998 to 2015, where it more closely approximated population norms. Days out of role remained higher among participants who reported OBE, although decreased over time. Half of participants who reported weekly (56.6%) and twice-weekly (47.1%) OBE reported that they were not distressed by this behaviour. However, the presence of distress related to OBE in 2015 was associated with greater health-related quality-of-life impairment. As the prevalence of binge eating increases over time, associated disability has been decreasing. Implications for the diagnosis of disorders associated with binge eating are discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Time trends in social differences in nutrition habits of a Lithuanian population: 1994-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriaucioniene Vilma

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the post-communist transition period, political, economic, and social changes affected the lifestyles of the Lithuanian population, including their nutritional habits. However, people of lower socio-economic position were more vulnerable to these changes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the trends in selected food habits of the Lithuanian adult population by their level of education and place of residence from 1994 to 2010. Methods The data were obtained from nine biannual cross-sectional postal surveys of Lithuanian health behaviours, beginning in 1994. Each survey used a randomly selected nationally representative sample of 3000 inhabitants aged 20-64 drawn from the population register. In total, 7358 men and 9796 women participated in these surveys. Questions about food consumption were included within all health behaviour questionnaires. Results During the transition period, use of vegetable oil in cooking and the frequency of consumption of fresh vegetables increased, use of butter on bread decreased, and the proportion of women drinking high-fat milk declined. Lithuanians with higher education reported more frequent use of vegetable oil in cooking as well as daily consumption of fresh vegetables than those with a lower level of education. Consumption of high-fat milk was inversely associated with educational background. In addition, the proportion of persons spreading butter on bread increased with higher education level. The greatest urban-rural difference was observed in high-fat milk consumption. The increase in the use of vegetable oil in cooking, and the reduction of spreading butter on bread was more evident among less educated and rural inhabitants. Meanwhile, a greater proportion of the rural population, compared to urban, reduced their use of butter on bread. Daily consumption of fresh vegetables increased most among highly educated Lithuanians. Conclusions The data from our study indicate

  20. Changing trends of hepatitis b seromarkers amongst pakistani population: a laboratory-based review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zafar, A.; Khan, E.; Khan, M.S.; Moiz, B.; Jafri, W.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To study the changing trends of hepatitis B markers tested at Aga Khan University Hospital clinical laboratory according to the internationally recognised classification of hepatitis B profile. Methods: The retrospective study involved analysis of laboratory records of hepatitis B profiles of all patients collected from January 2001 to December 2008 at the Aga Khan University Hospital's clinical laboratory. Patients with complete profile tested were categorised according to the Centre for Diseases Control classification of hepatitis B profile. SPSS 16 was used for statistical analysis. Results: A total of 185,825 patients had serological markers for hepatitis B tested. Mean-age of reactive hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) patients was 30+-12.5 years. HBsAg reactivity was significantly higher in males than females (34% vs 12%; p <0.0001). HBsAg showed a slight decline in the percentage reactivity during the 8-year study period, while a gradual increase in hepatitis B surface antibody (HBsAb) reactivity was observed. Of the total, 23% patients belonged to the 'susceptible to infection' category; 39% patients were classified as 'chronically-ill'; 12% patients were categorised as 'immune due to hepatitis B vaccination'. 3% patients were classed as 'acutely infected'. Overall, samples received from Peshawar, Quetta and Larkana showed very high reactivity rates. Conclusion: The study substantiated the general perception that levels of HBsAg is showing a decreasing trend, while levels of HBsAb are increasing perhaps due to better vaccination of population. (author)

  1. Prevalence, co-occurrence and decennial trends of family violence toward children in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clément, Marie-Ève; Chamberland, Claire; Bouchard, Camil

    2016-03-14

    In Quebec, three population-based surveys have documented the prevalence of psychological aggression, and minor and severe physical violence toward children. This paper aims to present 1) the results of the 2012 survey with regard to the frequency and annual prevalence of violence, and 2) the trends in all three forms of violence between 1999 and 2012 according to children's age. The three independent surveys were all conducted through telephone interviews in 1999, 2004 and 2012 by the Institut de la Statistique du Québec and reached a total sample of 9,646 children living with a mother figure. Psychological aggression, and minor and severe physical violence were measured using the Parent Child Conflict Tactics Scales. The results show that repeated psychological aggression, after having increased between 1999 (48%) and 2004 (53%), slightly decreased in 2012 (49%). Minor physical violence decreased steadily between 1999 and 2012, from 48% to 35%, and severe physical violence remained stable (6%). These three forms of violence varied by the age category of the children. Finally, the results show that the co-occurrence of the use of physical and psychological violence remained high in all three surveys. The results are consistent with trends in North America and are discussed in terms of services to support families.

  2. Trends in cannabis use disorders among racial/ethnic population groups in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Li-Tzy; Zhu, He; Swartz, Marvin S

    2016-08-01

    Minority groups generally experience more disparities than whites in behavioral healthcare use. The population of racial/ethnic groups is growing faster than whites. Given increased concerns of cannabis use (CU) and its associations with health conditions, we examined national trends in cannabis use disorder (CUD) among adults aged ≥18 by race/ethnicity. Data were from the 2005-2013 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (N=340,456). We compared CU patterns and the conditional prevalence of CUD among cannabis users by race/ethnicity to understand racial/ethnic variations in CUD. Approximately 1.5% of adults met criteria for a CUD in the past year. Regardless of survey year, cannabis dependence was more common than cannabis abuse, representing 66% of adults with a CUD. Across racial/ethnic groups, the prevalence of cannabis abuse and dependence remained stable during 2005-2013. In the total adult sample, the odds of weekly CU, monthly CU, and cannabis dependence were greater among blacks, native-Americans, and mixed-race adults than whites. Among cannabis users, the odds of cannabis abuse and dependence were greater among blacks, native-Americans, and Hispanics than whites. Logistic regression controlling for age, sex, education, and survey year indicated an increased trend in monthly CU and weekly CU in the total sample and among past-year cannabis users. Younger age, male sex, and low education were associated with increased odds of cannabis dependence. The large sample provides robust information that indicates a need for research to monitor CUD and identify culturally appropriate interventions especially for targeting minority populations. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Velocity landscape correlation resolves multiple flowing protein populations from fluorescence image time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandžić, Elvis; Abu-Arish, Asmahan; Whan, Renee M; Hanrahan, John W; Wiseman, Paul W

    2018-02-16

    Molecular, vesicular and organellar flows are of fundamental importance for the delivery of nutrients and essential components used in cellular functions such as motility and division. With recent advances in fluorescence/super-resolution microscopy modalities we can resolve the movements of these objects at higher spatio-temporal resolutions and with better sensitivity. Previously, spatio-temporal image correlation spectroscopy has been applied to map molecular flows by correlation analysis of fluorescence fluctuations in image series. However, an underlying assumption of this approach is that the sampled time windows contain one dominant flowing component. Although this was true for most of the cases analyzed earlier, in some situations two or more different flowing populations can be present in the same spatio-temporal window. We introduce an approach, termed velocity landscape correlation (VLC), which detects and extracts multiple flow components present in a sampled image region via an extension of the correlation analysis of fluorescence intensity fluctuations. First we demonstrate theoretically how this approach works, test the performance of the method with a range of computer simulated image series with varying flow dynamics. Finally we apply VLC to study variable fluxing of STIM1 proteins on microtubules connected to the plasma membrane of Cystic Fibrosis Bronchial Epithelial (CFBE) cells. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Trend analysis of GIMMS and MODIS NDVI time series for establishing a land degradation neutrality national baseline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gichenje, Helene; Godinho, Sergio

    2017-04-01

    Land degradation is a key global environment and development problem that is recognized as a priority by the international development community. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted by the global community in 2015, and include a goal related to land degradation and the accompanying target to achieve a land degradation-neutral (LDN) world by 2030. The LDN concept encompasses two joint actions of reducing the rate of degradation and increasing the rate of restoration. Using Kenya as the study area, this study aims to develop and test a spatially explicit methodology for assessing and monitoring the operationalization of a land degradation neutrality scheme at the national level. Time series analysis is applied to Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) satellite data records, based on the hypothesis that the resulting NDVI residual trend would enable successful detection of changes in vegetation photosynthetic capacity and thus serve as a proxy for land degradation and regeneration processes. Two NDVI data sets are used to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of degraded and regenerated areas: the long term coarse resolution (8km, 1982-2015) third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI3g data record; and the shorter-term finer resolution (250m, 2001-2015) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived NDVI data record. Climate data (rainfall, temperature and soil moisture) are used to separate areas of human-induced vegetation productivity decline from those driven by climate dynamics. Further, weekly vegetation health (VH) indexes (4km, 1982-2015) developed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are assessed as indicators for early detection and monitoring of land degradation by estimating vegetation stress (moisture, thermal and combined conditions).

  5. Oral cancer in Cali, Colombia: a population-based analysis of incidence and mortality trends.

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    Dora Ordóñez

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To describe the time trends of the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer (OC in Cali, Colombia between 1962-2007. Materials and methods. Age-standardized (Segi’s world population incidence (ASIR and mortality (ASMR rates for oral cancer were estimated using data from the Population-based Cancer Registry of Cali, Colombia and from the database of the Municipal Secretary of Public Health (MSPH respectively. Annual percentage change (APC was used to measure the changes in rates over time. Results. 1 637 new cases of oral cancer were registered in the CPCR and the mean age upon diagnosis was 60 years. The ASIR decreased from 1962-2007 in men APC= 1.3 (IC95%:-2.0; -0.6 and women APC= -1.0 (IC95%: -1.7; -0.4.The ASMR decreased from 1984-2001 only in men, APC=2.8 (IC95%: -4.1; -1.5. Conclusions. There was a significant decrease in the incidence and mortality rates for OC in Cali, Colombia. The type of tumor associated to these changes was the squamous cell carcinoma

  6. [Oral cancer in Cali, Colombia: a population-based analysis of incidence and mortality trends].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordóñez, Dora; Aragón, Natalia; García, Luz Stella; Collazos, Paola; Bravo, Luis Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    To describe the time trends of the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer (OC) in Cali, Colombia between 1962-2007. Age-standardized (Segi's world population) incidence (ASIR) and mortality (ASMR) rates for oral cancer were estimated using data from the Population-based Cancer Registry of Cali, Colombia and from the database of the Municipal Secretary of Public Health (MSPH) respectively. Annual percentage change (APC) was used to measure the changes in rates over time. 1637 new cases of oral cancer were registered in the CPCR and the mean age upon diagnosis was 60 years. The ASIR decreased from 1962-2007 in men APC= 1.3 (IC95%:-2.0; -0.6) and women APC= -1.0 (IC95%: -1.7; -0.4).The ASMR decreased from 1984-2001 only in men, APC=2.8 (IC95%: -4.1; -1.5). There was a significant decrease in the incidence and mortality rates for OC in Cali, Colombia. The type of tumor associated to these changes was the squamous cell carcinoma.

  7. Temporal trends in management and outcomes of testicular cancer: A population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leveridge, Michael J; Siemens, D Robert; Brennan, Kelly; Izard, Jason P; Karim, Safiya; An, Howard; Mackillop, William J; Booth, Christopher M

    2018-04-16

    Treatment guidelines for early-stage testicular cancer have increasingly recommended de-escalation of therapy with surveillance strategies. This study was designed to describe temporal trends in routine clinical practice and to determine whether de-escalation of therapy is associated with inferior survival in the general population. The Ontario Cancer Registry was linked to electronic records of treatment to identify all patients diagnosed with testicular cancer treated with orchiectomy in Ontario during 2000-2010. Treatment after orchiectomy was classified as radiotherapy (RT), retroperitoneal lymph node dissection (RPLND), chemotherapy, or none. Surveillance was defined as no identified treatment within 90 days of orchiectomy. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were measured from the date of orchiectomy. The study population included 1564 and 1086 cases of seminomas and nonseminoma germ cell tumors (NSGCTs), respectively. Among patients with seminomas, there was a significant increase in the proportion of patients with no treatment within 90 days of orchiectomy (from 56% to 84%; P testicular cancer in routine practice since 2000. Long-term survival in routine practice is excellent and has not decreased with the uptake of surveillance strategies. Cancer 2018. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

  8. Trends in the breeding population of Adelie penguins in the Ross Sea, 1981-2012: a coincidence of climate and resource extraction effects.

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    Phil O'B Lyver

    Full Text Available Measurements of the size of Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae colonies of the southern Ross Sea are among the longest biologic time series in the Antarctic. We present an assessment of recent annual variation and trends in abundance and growth rates of these colonies, adding to the published record not updated for more than two decades. High angle oblique aerial photographic surveys of colonies were acquired and penguins counted for the breeding seasons 1981-2012. In the last four years the numbers of Adélie penguins in the Ross and Beaufort Island colonies (southern Ross Sea metapopulation reached their highest levels since aerial counts began in 1981. Results indicated that 855,625 pairs of Adélie penguins established breeding territories in the western Ross Sea, with just over a quarter (28% of those in the southern portion, constituting a semi-isolated metapopulation (three colonies on Ross Island, one on nearby Beaufort Island. The southern population had a negative per capita growth rate of -0.019 during 1981-2000, followed by a positive per capita growth rate of 0.067 for 2001-2012. Colony growth rates for this metapopulation showed striking synchrony through time, indicating that large-scale factors influenced their annual growth. In contrast to the increased colony sizes in the southern population, the patterns of change among colonies of the northern Ross Sea were difficult to characterize. Trends were similar to southern colonies until the mid-1990s, after which the signal was lost owing to significantly reduced frequency of surveys. Both climate factors and recovery of whale populations likely played roles in the trends among southern colonies until 2000, after which depletion of another trophic competitor, the Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni, may explain the sharp increasing trend evident since then.

  9. Trends in the Breeding Population of Adélie Penguins in the Ross Sea, 1981–2012: A Coincidence of Climate and Resource Extraction Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyver, Phil O’B.; Barron, Mandy; Barton, Kerry J.; Ainley, David G.; Pollard, Annie; Gordon, Shulamit; McNeill, Stephen; Ballard, Grant; Wilson, Peter R.

    2014-01-01

    Measurements of the size of Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colonies of the southern Ross Sea are among the longest biologic time series in the Antarctic. We present an assessment of recent annual variation and trends in abundance and growth rates of these colonies, adding to the published record not updated for more than two decades. High angle oblique aerial photographic surveys of colonies were acquired and penguins counted for the breeding seasons 1981–2012. In the last four years the numbers of Adélie penguins in the Ross and Beaufort Island colonies (southern Ross Sea metapopulation) reached their highest levels since aerial counts began in 1981. Results indicated that 855,625 pairs of Adélie penguins established breeding territories in the western Ross Sea, with just over a quarter (28%) of those in the southern portion, constituting a semi-isolated metapopulation (three colonies on Ross Island, one on nearby Beaufort Island). The southern population had a negative per capita growth rate of −0.019 during 1981–2000, followed by a positive per capita growth rate of 0.067 for 2001–2012. Colony growth rates for this metapopulation showed striking synchrony through time, indicating that large-scale factors influenced their annual growth. In contrast to the increased colony sizes in the southern population, the patterns of change among colonies of the northern Ross Sea were difficult to characterize. Trends were similar to southern colonies until the mid-1990s, after which the signal was lost owing to significantly reduced frequency of surveys. Both climate factors and recovery of whale populations likely played roles in the trends among southern colonies until 2000, after which depletion of another trophic competitor, the Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni), may explain the sharp increasing trend evident since then. PMID:24621601

  10. The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected

  11. Statistical significance approximation in local trend analysis of high-throughput time-series data using the theory of Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Li C; Ai, Dongmei; Cram, Jacob A; Liang, Xiaoyi; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

    2015-09-21

    Local trend (i.e. shape) analysis of time series data reveals co-changing patterns in dynamics of biological systems. However, slow permutation procedures to evaluate the statistical significance of local trend scores have limited its applications to high-throughput time series data analysis, e.g., data from the next generation sequencing technology based studies. By extending the theories for the tail probability of the range of sum of Markovian random variables, we propose formulae for approximating the statistical significance of local trend scores. Using simulations and real data, we show that the approximate p-value is close to that obtained using a large number of permutations (starting at time points >20 with no delay and >30 with delay of at most three time steps) in that the non-zero decimals of the p-values obtained by the approximation and the permutations are mostly the same when the approximate p-value is less than 0.05. In addition, the approximate p-value is slightly larger than that based on permutations making hypothesis testing based on the approximate p-value conservative. The approximation enables efficient calculation of p-values for pairwise local trend analysis, making large scale all-versus-all comparisons possible. We also propose a hybrid approach by integrating the approximation and permutations to obtain accurate p-values for significantly associated pairs. We further demonstrate its use with the analysis of the Polymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) microbial community time series from high-throughput sequencing data and found interesting organism co-occurrence dynamic patterns. The software tool is integrated into the eLSA software package that now provides accelerated local trend and similarity analysis pipelines for time series data. The package is freely available from the eLSA website: http://bitbucket.org/charade/elsa.

  12. A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES DOES COMPLEX MODEL ALWAYS YIELD BETTER FORECAST THAN SIMPLE MODELS

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    Suhartono Suhartono

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Many business and economic time series are non-stationary time series that contain trend and seasonal variations. Seasonality is a periodic and recurrent pattern caused by factors such as weather, holidays, or repeating promotions. A stochastic trend is often accompanied with the seasonal variations and can have a significant impact on various forecasting methods. In this paper, we will investigate and compare some forecasting methods for modeling time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. These methods are Winter's, Decomposition, Time Series Regression, ARIMA and Neural Networks models. In this empirical research, we study on the effectiveness of the forecasting performance, particularly to answer whether a complex method always give a better forecast than a simpler method. We use a real data, that is airline passenger data. The result shows that the more complex model does not always yield a better result than a simpler one. Additionally, we also find the possibility to do further research especially the use of hybrid model by combining some forecasting method to get better forecast, for example combination between decomposition (as data preprocessing and neural network model.

  13. Incidence and time trends of Herpes zoster in rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veetil, Bharath Manu Akkara; Myasoedova, Elena; Matteson, Eric L.; Gabriel, Sherine E.; Green, Abigail B.; Crowson, Cynthia S.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine the incidence, time trends, risk factors and severity of herpes zoster (HZ) in a population-based incidence cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to a group of individuals without RA from the same population. Methods All residents of Olmsted County, MN who first fulfilled 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA between 1/1/1980 and 12/31/2007 and a cohort of similar residents without RA were assembled and followed by retrospective chart review until death, migration, or 12/31/2008. Results There was no difference in the presence of HZ prior to RA incidence/index date between the cohorts (p=0.85). During follow-up 84 patients with RA (rate: 12.1 per 1000 person-years) and 44 subjects without RA (rate: 5.4 per 1000 person-years) developed HZ. Patients with RA were more likely to develop HZ than those without RA (hazard ratio: 2.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.7, 3.5). Patients diagnosed with RA in 1995–2007 had a higher likelihood of developing HZ than those diagnosed in 1980–1994. Erosive disease, previous joint surgery, use of hydroxychloroquine and corticosteroids were significantly associated with the development of HZ in RA, while the use of methotrexate or biologic agents was not. Complications of HZ occurred at a similar rate in both cohorts. Conclusion The incidence of HZ is increased in RA and has risen in recent years. The increasing incidence of HZ in more recent years is also noted in the general population. RA disease severity is associated with development of HZ. PMID:23281295

  14. Time trends in burdens of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the population of northern Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wennberg, Maria; Lundh, Thomas; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Hallmans, Goeran; Jansson, Jan-Hakan; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Custodio, Hipolito M.; Skerfving, Staffan

    2006-01-01

    The time trends of exposure to heavy metals are not adequately known. This is a worldwide problem with regard to the basis for preventive actions and evaluation of their effects. This study addresses time trends for the three toxic elements cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). Concentrations in erythrocytes (Ery) were determined in a subsample of the population-based MONICA surveys from 1990, 1994, and 1999 in a total of 600 men and women aged 25-74 years. The study took place in the two northernmost counties in Sweden. To assess the effect of changes in the environment, adjustments were made for life-style factors that are determinants of exposure. Annual decreases of 5-6% were seen for Ery-Pb levels (adjusted for age and changes in alcohol intake) and Ery-Hg levels (adjusted for age and changes in fish intake). Ery-Cd levels (adjusted for age) showed a similar significant decrease in smoking men. It is concluded that for Pb and maybe also Hg the actions against pollution during recent decades have caused a rapid decrease of exposure; for Hg the decreased use of dental amalgam may also have had an influence. For Cd, the decline in Ery-Cd was seen only in smokers, indicating that Cd exposure from tobacco has decreased, while other environmental sources of Cd have not changed significantly. To further improve the health status in Sweden, it is important to decrease the pollution of Cd, and actions against smoking in the community are important

  15. Projecting range-wide sun bear population trends using tree cover and camera-trap bycatch data.

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    Lorraine Scotson

    Full Text Available Monitoring population trends of threatened species requires standardized techniques that can be applied over broad areas and repeated through time. Sun bears Helarctos malayanus are a forest dependent tropical bear found throughout most of Southeast Asia. Previous estimates of global population trends have relied on expert opinion and cannot be systematically replicated. We combined data from 1,463 camera traps within 31 field sites across sun bear range to model the relationship between photo catch rates of sun bears and tree cover. Sun bears were detected in all levels of tree cover above 20%, and the probability of presence was positively associated with the amount of tree cover within a 6-km2 buffer of the camera traps. We used the relationship between catch rates and tree cover across space to infer temporal trends in sun bear abundance in response to tree cover loss at country and global-scales. Our model-based projections based on this "space for time" substitution suggested that sun bear population declines associated with tree cover loss between 2000-2014 in mainland southeast Asia were ~9%, with declines highest in Cambodia and lowest in Myanmar. During the same period, sun bear populations in insular southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei were projected to have declined at a much higher rate (22%. Cast forward over 30-years, from the year 2000, by assuming a constant rate of change in tree cover, we projected population declines in the insular region that surpassed 50%, meeting the IUCN criteria for endangered if sun bears were listed on the population level. Although this approach requires several assumptions, most notably that trends in abundance across space can be used to infer temporal trends, population projections using remotely sensed tree cover data may serve as a useful alternative (or supplement to expert opinion. The advantages of this approach is that it is objective, data-driven, repeatable, and it requires that

  16. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

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    Jiří Flousek

    Full Text Available Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše, where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta. It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

  17. Long-term trends at the Boknis Eck time series station (Baltic Sea, 1957–2013: does climate change counteract the decline in eutrophication?

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    S. T. Lennartz

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The Boknis Eck (BE time series station, initiated in 1957, is one of the longest-operated time series stations worldwide. We present the first statistical evaluation of a data set of nine physical, chemical and biological parameters in the period of 1957–2013. In the past three to five decades, all of the measured parameters underwent significant long-term changes. Most striking is an ongoing decline in bottom water oxygen concentration, despite a significant decrease of nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations. Temperature-enhanced oxygen consumption in the bottom water and a prolongation of the stratification period are discussed as possible reasons for the ongoing oxygen decline despite declining eutrophication. Observations at the BE station were compared with model output of the Kiel Baltic Sea Ice Ocean Model (BSIOM. Reproduced trends were in good agreement with observed trends for temperature and oxygen, but generally the oxygen concentration at the bottom has been overestimated.

  18. Clinical profile and neuroimaging in pediatric optic neuritis in Indian population: A case series

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    Rutika Khadse

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the study: The purpose of this study was to report clinical features, neuroimaging, and visual outcome in pediatric optic neuritis (ON in Indian population. Materials and Methods: This is a retrospective study of children up to the age of 16 years, diagnosed with ON, that presented at pediatric and neuroophthalmology clinic of a tertiary eye care center, in South India, within the period of 2010–2015. Results: We identified 62 eyes of 40 children diagnosed as ON within the study period. The mean age was 11.15 ± 3.24 years (1–15 years with mean follow-up of 13 months. In this series, there was female preponderance (67%. Mean logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution visual acuity at presentation was 1.14 ± 0.93, which after treatment recovered to 0.10 ± 0.26 at final visit (P < 0.001. Involvement was bilateral in 22 children (55% and recurrent in 3 eyes of 3 children. Preceding febrile illness was reported in seven cases (18%. Four (10% cases were diagnosed as multiple sclerosis (MS, one with neuromyelitis optica , and one with acute disseminated encephalomyelitis. One case was associated with tuberculous meningitis, 1 with septicemia, and 1 with bilateral maxillary sinusitis. Neuroimaging studies of optic nerve in 14 children demonstrated isolated optic nerve enhancement. Magnetic resonance imaging brain revealed white matter T2 hyperintense lesions separate from optic nerve in ten cases, of which four cases were diagnosed as MS. Conclusions: Bilateral presentation was common, association with MS was low. Papillitis was more frequent than retrobulbar neuritis and prognosis was good in pediatric ON in Indian population.

  19. Contemporary Trends of Reported Sepsis Among Maternal Decedents in Texas: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Lavi

    2015-09-01

    Recent studies indicate that death certificate-based single-cause-of-death diagnoses can substantially underestimate the contribution of sepsis to mortality in the general population and among maternal decedents. There are no population-based data in the United States on the patterns of the contribution of sepsis to pregnancy-associated deaths. We studied the Texas Inpatient Public Use Data File to identify pregnancy-associated hospitalizations with reported hospital death during 2001-2010. We then examined the annual reporting of sepsis, and that of other reported most common causes of maternal death, including hemorrhage, embolism, preeclampsia/eclampsia, cardiovascular conditions, cardiomyopathy, cerebrovascular accidents, and anesthesia complications. The annual rate of sepsis among decedents, its trend over time, and changes of its annual rank among other examined potential causes of maternal death were assessed. There were 557 pregnancy-associated hospital deaths during study period. Sepsis was reported in 131 (23.5%) decedents. Sepsis has been increasingly reported among decedents, rising by 9.1%/year (P = 0.0025). The rank of sepsis, as compared to the other examined potential causes of maternal death rose from the 5th in 2001 to 1st since 2008. At the end of the last decade, sepsis has been reported in 28.1% of pregnancy-associated deaths. More than one potential cause of maternal death was reported in 39% of decedents. Sepsis has become the most commonly reported potential cause of death among maternal decedents in the present cohort, noted in over 1 in 4 fatal hospitalizations by the end of the last decade. Although causality cannot be inferred from administrative data, given its known contribution to maternal death, it is likely that sepsis plays an increasing role in fatal maternal hospital outcomes. The prevalent co-reporting of multiple potential causes of maternal death in the present cohort underscores the complexity of determining the sources of

  20. [Static Retinal Vessel Analysis in Population-based Study SHIP-Trend].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theophil, Constanze; Jürgens, Clemens; Großjohann, Rico; Kempin, Robert; Ittermann, Till; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry; Tost, Frank H W

    2017-08-24

    Background Interdisciplinary investigations of possible connections between general diseases and ophthalmological changes are difficult to perform in the clinical environment. But they are gaining in importance as a result of the age-related increase in chronic diseases. The collection of health-related parameters in the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) project allows to derive conclusions for the general population. Methods The population-based SHIP trend study was conducted between 2008 and 2012 in Greifswald. The baseline cohort included 4420 subjects (response 50.1%) at the age of 20 to 84 years. The pre-existence of arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus and smoking status were questioned in a standardized questionnaire, the blood pressure and the HbA 1c were determined by the laboratory. The vascular diameter of retinal arterioles and venules were determined by means of non-mydriatic fundus images and the retinal arterial (CRAE) and venous equivalent (CRVE) were calculated therefrom. The association of diabetes mellitus, HbA 1c , smoking status and blood pressure with the retinal vascular parameters was tested for age and sex with linear regression models. Results In 3218 subjects with evaluable standardized fundus photographs, significant associations of elevated HbA 1c (> 6.5%), smoking status and systolic and diastolic blood pressure were found with the retinal vessel widths CRAE and CRVE. Anamnestic diabetes mellitus, on the other hand, was not associated with any of the vascular parameters. Conclusion This research study reveals a relevant correlation between general diseases and the retinal blood flow in the eye. Therefore, general diseases can induce ophthalmological changes and eye examination can provide information for the assessment of general diseases. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  1. Study on the trend and disease burden of injury deaths in Chinese population, 2004-2010.

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    Lijuan Zhang

    Full Text Available Injuries are a growing public health concern in China, accounting for more than 30% of all Person Years of Life Lost (PYLL due to premature mortality. This study analyzes the trend and disease burden of injury deaths in Chinese population from 2004 to 2010, using data from the National Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs system, as injury deaths are classified based on the International Classification of Disease-10(th Revision (ICD-10. We observed that injury death accounted for nearly 10% of all deaths in China throughout the period 2004-2010, and the injury mortality rates were higher in males than those in females, and higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Traffic crashes (33.79-38.47% of all injury deaths and suicides (16.20-22.01% were the two leading causes of injury deaths. Alarmingly, suicide surpassed traffic crashes as the leading cause of injury mortality in rural females, yet adults aged 65 and older suffered the greatest number of fatal falls (20,701 deaths, 2004-2010. The burden of injury among men (72.11% was about three times more than that of women's (28.89%. This study provides indispensible evidence that China Authority needs to improve the surveillance and deterrence of three major types of injuries: Traffic-related injury deaths should be targeted for injury prevention activities in all population, people aged 65+ should be encouraged to take individual fall precautions, and prevention of suicidal behavior in rural females should be another key priority for the government of China.

  2. Trends in use of neonatal CPAP: a population-based study

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    Bowen Jennifer R

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP is used widely to provide respiratory support for neonates, and is often the first treatment choice in tertiary centres. Recent trials have demonstrated that CPAP reduces need for intubation and ventilation for infants born at 25-28 weeks gestation, and at > 32weeks, in non-tertiary hospitals, CPAP reduces need for transfer to NICU. The aim of this study was to examine recent population trends in the use of neonatal continuous positive airway pressure. Methods We undertook a population-based cohort study of all 696,816 liveborn neonates ≥24 weeks gestation in New South Wales (NSW Australia, 2001-2008. Data were obtained from linked birth and hospitalizations records, including neonatal transfers. The primary outcome was CPAP without mechanical ventilation (via endotracheal intubation between birth and discharge from the hospital system. Analyses were stratified by age ≤32 and > 32 weeks gestation. Results Neonates receiving any ventilatory support increased from 1,480 (17.9/1000 in 2001 to 2,486 (26.9/1000 in 2008, including 461 (5.6/1000 to 1,465 (15.8/1000 neonates who received CPAP alone. There was a concurrent decrease in mechanical ventilation use from 12.3 to 11.0/1000. The increase in CPAP use was greater among neonates > 32 weeks (from 3.2 to 11.8/1000 compared with neonates ≤32 weeks (from 18.1 to 32.7/1000. The proportion of CPAP > 32 weeks initiated in non-tertiary hospitals increased from 6% to 30%. Conclusions The use of neonatal CPAP is increasing, especially > 32 weeks gestation and among non-tertiary hospitals. Recommendations are required regarding which infants should be considered for CPAP, resources necessary for a unit to offer CPAP and monitoring of longer term outcomes.

  3. Trends in use of neonatal CPAP: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Christine L; Badgery-Parker, Tim; Algert, Charles S; Bowen, Jennifer R; Nassar, Natasha

    2011-10-17

    Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is used widely to provide respiratory support for neonates, and is often the first treatment choice in tertiary centres. Recent trials have demonstrated that CPAP reduces need for intubation and ventilation for infants born at 25-28 weeks gestation, and at > 32 weeks, in non-tertiary hospitals, CPAP reduces need for transfer to NICU. The aim of this study was to examine recent population trends in the use of neonatal continuous positive airway pressure. We undertook a population-based cohort study of all 696,816 liveborn neonates ≥24 weeks gestation in New South Wales (NSW) Australia, 2001-2008. Data were obtained from linked birth and hospitalizations records, including neonatal transfers. The primary outcome was CPAP without mechanical ventilation (via endotracheal intubation) between birth and discharge from the hospital system. Analyses were stratified by age ≤32 and > 32 weeks gestation. Neonates receiving any ventilatory support increased from 1,480 (17.9/1000) in 2001 to 2,486 (26.9/1000) in 2008, including 461 (5.6/1000) to 1,465 (15.8/1000) neonates who received CPAP alone. There was a concurrent decrease in mechanical ventilation use from 12.3 to 11.0/1000. The increase in CPAP use was greater among neonates > 32 weeks (from 3.2 to 11.8/1000) compared with neonates ≤32 weeks (from 18.1 to 32.7/1000). The proportion of CPAP > 32 weeks initiated in non-tertiary hospitals increased from 6% to 30%. The use of neonatal CPAP is increasing, especially > 32 weeks gestation and among non-tertiary hospitals. Recommendations are required regarding which infants should be considered for CPAP, resources necessary for a unit to offer CPAP and monitoring of longer term outcomes.

  4. [Trends in the consumption of anxiolytic and hypnotic drugs in a Colombian population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado-Alba, Jorge Enrique; Alzate-Carvajal, Verónica; Jimenez-Canizales, Carlos Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Latin America, psychotropic medications are the third most marketed drug group, especially antidepressants (35%) and anxiolytics (5%). The objective of this study was to determine the trends in the consumption and the costs of anxiolytic and hypnotic drugs in a population of patients enrolled in the Health System of Colombia. A descriptive, observational study was performed using the data recorded inprescriptions for any anxiolytic or hypnotic drug prescribed to outpatients in the period between January 2008 and December 2013 in a population of 3.5 million people. Sociodemographic, pharmacological variables, overall costs, and cost per thousand inhabitants per day (CHD), were also recorded. The number of patients who received the drugs studied varied from 11,097 to 19,231 between 2008 and 2013. The most used drugs were clonazepam (44.1% of formulations), alprazolam (31.2%), and lorazepam (13.2%). The invoiced value of anxiolytics increased from US$ 207,673.63 in 2008 to US$ 488,977 in 2013, an increase of 135.4%. The CHD was US$ 0.31 for benzodiazepines, and US$ 0.02 for zaleplon, zolpidem and zopiclone (Z drugs) for 2008, and US$ 0.36 and US$ 0.02 in 2013 respectively. The CHD declined after 2010 following the introduction of generic drugs. Patients receiving benzodiazepines in Colombia are mostly women, average age 55 years, with very low frequency in defined daily doses per thousand inhabitants when compared with other countries. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  5. Variation Trend Analysis of Runoff and Sediment Time Series Based on the R/S Analysis of Simulated Loess Tilled Slopes in the Loess Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to illustrate the temporal variation of runoff and sediment of loess tilled slopes under successive rainfall conditions. Loess tilled slopes with four microtopography types (straight cultivated slope, artificial backhoe, artificial digging, and contour tillage under five slope gradients (5°, 10°, 15°, 20°, 25° were simulated and a rainfall intensity of 60 mm/h was adopted. The temporal trends of runoff and sediment yield were predicted based on the Rescaled Range (R/S analysis method. The results indicate that the Hurst indices of runoff time series and sediment time series are higher than 0.5, and a long-term positive correlation exists between the future and the past. This means that runoff and sediment of loess tilled slopes in the future will have the same trends as in the past. The results obtained by the classical R/S analysis method were the same as those of the modified R/S analysis method. The rationality and reliability of the R/S analysis method were further identified and the method can be used for predicting the trend of runoff and sediment yield. The correlation between the microtopography and the Hurst indices of the runoff and sediment yield time series, as well as between the slopes and the Hurst indices, were tested, and the result was that there was no significant correlation between them. The microtopography and slopes cannot affect the correlation and continuity of runoff and sediment yield time series. This study provides an effective method for predicting variations in the trends of runoff and sediment yield on loess tilled slopes.

  6. Institutional point-of-care glucometer identifies population trends in blood glucose associated with war.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boaz, Mona; Matas, Zipora; Chaimy, Tova; Landau, Zohar; Bar Dayan, Yosefa; Berlovitz, Yitzhak; Wainstein, Julio

    2013-11-01

    Acute physiological stress has been shown to impair glucose homeostasis. War is a period of acute psychological stress, and its effect on glucose control is unknown. In this study random point-of-care (POC) glucose levels were measured using an automated, institutional glucometer in hospitalized adult patients prior to versus during the Israeli Pillar of Defense campaign (November 7-10, 2012). Random POC glucose values measured with the institutional blood glucose monitoring system were obtained 1 week prior to the Pillar of Defense campaign (November 7-10, 2012) and compared with values to those obtained during the first 4 days of the war (November 14-17, 2012). In total, 3,573 POC glucose measures were included: 1,865 during the pre-war period and 1,708 during the campaign. POC glucose measures were significantly higher during the war compared with the week preceding the war: 9.7±4.7 versus 9.3±4.2 mmol/L (P=0.02). In a general linear model, period (pre-war vs. during war) persisted as a significant predictor of POC glucose even after controlling for age, sex, and department type (internal medicine vs. surgical). Acute stress, such as a wartime situation, is associated with a significant increase in random blood glucose values in a population of hospitalized adults. Long-term follow-up of the individuals hospitalized during these two periods can reveal differences in morbidity and mortality trends.

  7. CENTRAL DARK MATTER TRENDS IN EARLY-TYPE GALAXIES FROM STRONG LENSING, DYNAMICS, AND STELLAR POPULATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tortora, C.; Jetzer, P.; Napolitano, N. R.; Romanowsky, A. J.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the correlations between central dark matter (DM) content of early-type galaxies and their sizes and ages, using a sample of intermediate-redshift (z ∼ 0.2) gravitational lenses from the SLACS survey, and by comparing them to a larger sample of z ∼ 0 galaxies. We decompose the deprojected galaxy masses into DM and stellar components using combinations of strong lensing, stellar dynamics, and stellar populations modeling. For a given stellar mass, we find that for galaxies with larger sizes, the DM fraction increases and the mean DM density decreases, consistently with the cuspy halos expected in cosmological formation scenarios. The DM fraction also decreases with stellar age, which can be partially explained by the inverse correlation between size and age. The residual trend may point to systematic dependencies on formation epoch of halo contraction or stellar initial mass functions. These results are in agreement with recent findings based on local galaxies by Napolitano et al. and suggest negligible evidence of galaxy evolution over the last ∼2.5 Gyr other than passive stellar aging.

  8. The SLUGGS survey: globular cluster stellar population trends from weak absorption lines in stacked spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usher, Christopher; Forbes, Duncan A.; Brodie, Jean P.; Romanowsky, Aaron J.; Strader, Jay; Conroy, Charlie; Foster, Caroline; Pastorello, Nicola; Pota, Vincenzo; Arnold, Jacob A.

    2015-01-01

    As part of the SAGES Legacy Unifying Globulars and GalaxieS (SLUGGS) survey, we stack 1137 Keck DEIMOS (Deep Imaging Multi-Object Spectrograph) spectra of globular clusters from 10 galaxies to study their stellar populations in detail. The stacked spectra have median signal-to-noise ratios of ˜90 Å-1. Besides the calcium triplet, we study weaker sodium, magnesium, titanium and iron lines as well as the Hα and higher order Paschen hydrogen lines. In general, the stacked spectra are consistent with old ages and a Milky Way-like initial mass function. However, we see different metal line index strengths at fixed colour and magnitude, and differences in the calcium triplet-colour relation from galaxy to galaxy. We interpret this as strong evidence for variations in the globular cluster colour-metallicity relation between galaxies. Two possible explanations for the colour-metallicity relation variations are that the average ages of globular clusters vary from galaxy to galaxy or that the average abundances of light elements (i.e. He, C, N and O) differ between galaxies. Stacking spectra by magnitude, we see that the colours become redder and metal line indices stronger with brighter magnitudes. These trends are consistent with the previously reported `blue tilts' being mass-metallicity relations.

  9. Trends in population-based studies of human genetics in infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowell, Jessica L; Dowling, Nicole F; Yu, Wei; Yesupriya, Ajay; Zhang, Lyna; Gwinn, Marta

    2012-01-01

    Pathogen genetics is already a mainstay of public health investigation and control efforts; now advances in technology make it possible to investigate the role of human genetic variation in the epidemiology of infectious diseases. To describe trends in this field, we analyzed articles that were published from 2001 through 2010 and indexed by the HuGE Navigator, a curated online database of PubMed abstracts in human genome epidemiology. We extracted the principal findings from all meta-analyses and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with an infectious disease-related outcome. Finally, we compared the representation of diseases in HuGE Navigator with their contributions to morbidity worldwide. We identified 3,730 articles on infectious diseases, including 27 meta-analyses and 23 GWAS. The number published each year increased from 148 in 2001 to 543 in 2010 but remained a small fraction (about 7%) of all studies in human genome epidemiology. Most articles were by authors from developed countries, but the percentage by authors from resource-limited countries increased from 9% to 25% during the period studied. The most commonly studied diseases were HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, hepatitis B infection, hepatitis C infection, sepsis, and malaria. As genomic research methods become more affordable and accessible, population-based research on infectious diseases will be able to examine the role of variation in human as well as pathogen genomes. This approach offers new opportunities for understanding infectious disease susceptibility, severity, treatment, control, and prevention.

  10. Rapid assessment of populations trends of invasive species: Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANA, ED

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA is a powerful analytical approach for biodi-versity management. Its main advan-tages are due to its intuitive processing and visualization, since mathematical workflow is conceptually similar to the widely accepted Principal Components Analysis. Detailed analyses of popula-tion trends with mathematical tools are often difficult to achieve for managers by a number of reasons (large numbers or areas monitored, large number of species, insufficient statistics skills, strong knowledge level in demographic analyses, etc.. SSA has been used since the 1970’s in signal processing to clarify signal vs. noisy information, but it has also been used in climate change analy-sis and other developmental areas. Be-sides, SSA is a rapid-learning method for technicians and managers with medium level of mathematical knowledge. Free software in Unix environment is avail-able. Unfortunately, no free and friendly software is available for Win-dows SO. Although R package may offer solutions for really advanced users, it does not fit real work situations for managers of biological invasions. Cater-pillar (Gistat Group, Ltd is by now, the best option found by the author in terms of price, facility for results inter-pretation and time consumed in learn-ing. The main disadvantage is the poor content of tutorial files

  11. A population based time series analysis of asthma hospitalisations in Ontario, Canada: 1988 to 2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Upshur Ross EG

    2001-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Asthma is a common yet incompletely understood health problem associated with a high morbidity burden. A wide variety of seasonally variable environmental stimuli such as viruses and air pollution are believed to influence asthma morbidity. This study set out to examine the seasonal patterns of asthma hospitalisations in relation to age and gender for the province of Ontario over a period of 12 years. Methods A retrospective, population-based study design was used to assess temporal patterns in hospitalisations for asthma from April 1, 1988 to March 31, 2000. Approximately 14 million residents of Ontario eligible for universal healthcare coverage during this time were included for analysis. Time series analyses were conducted on monthly aggregations of hospitalisations. Results There is strong evidence of an autumn peak and summer trough seasonal pattern occurring every year over the 12-year period (Fisher-Kappa (FK = 23.93, p > 0.01; Bartlett Kolmogorov Smirnov (BKS = 0.459, p Conclusions A clear and consistent seasonal pattern was observed in this study for asthma hospitalisations. These findings have important implications for the development of effective management and prevention strategies.

  12. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  13. Forecasting of time series with trend and seasonal cycle using the airline model and artificial neural networks Pronóstico de series de tiempo con tendencia y ciclo estacional usando el modelo airline y redes neuronales artificiales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J D Velásquez

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Many time series with trend and seasonal pattern are successfully modeled and forecasted by the airline model of Box and Jenkins; however, this model neglects the presence of nonlinearity on data. In this paper, we propose a new nonlinear version of the airline model; for this, we replace the moving average linear component by a multilayer perceptron neural network. The proposedmodel is used for forecasting two benchmark time series; we found that theproposed model is able to forecast the time series with more accuracy that other traditional approaches.Muchas series de tiempo con tendencia y ciclos estacionales son exitosamente modeladas y pronosticadas usando el modelo airline de Box y Jenkins; sin embargo, la presencia de no linealidades en los datos son despreciadas por este modelo. En este artículo, se propone una nueva versión no lineal del modelo airline; para esto, se reemplaza la componente lineal de promedios móviles por un perceptrón multicapa. El modelo propuesto es usado para pronosticar dos series de tiempo benchmark; se encontró que el modelo propuesto es capaz de pronosticar las series de tiempo con mayor precisión que otras aproximaciones tradicionales.

  14. Trends of the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa (Magnoliophyta in the Canary Islands: population changes in the last two decades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Fabbri

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Seagrass meadows perform essential ecosystem functions and services. Though the meadows are globally deteriorating, numerous regressions remain unreported as a result of data fragmentation. Cymodocea nodosa is the most important seagrass in shallow coastal waters of the Canary Islands. No study has so far investigated temporal population trends at the entire archipelago scale. Using data collected in the past 23 years by local companies, public authorities and research groups, the population trends of Cymodocea nodosa were analysed over the past two decades at the scales of islands, island sectors and meadows. During this period, a prevalence of negative trends was revealed for three seagrass demographic descriptors (seagrass shoot density, coverage and leaf length at the three scales, evidencing an overall deterioration in seagrass meadow integrity. These results suggest the need to develop correct management strategies to guarantee the conservation of this seagrass and the meadows it creates.

  15. Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

    2018-03-01

    Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

  16. Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baril, Donald T; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B

    2014-09-01

    Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Disentangling the relative importance of changes in climate and land-use intensity in driving recent bird population trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah M Eglington

    Full Text Available Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations.

  18. Local Vegetation Trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal Using Long Time Series FAPAR Satellite Products and Field Measurement (1982–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Brandt

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Local vegetation trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal from Geoland Version 1 (GEOV1 (5 km and the third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g (8 km Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR time series are studied over 29 years. For validation and interpretation of observed greenness trends, two methods are applied: (1 a qualitative approach using in-depth knowledge of the study areas and (2 a quantitative approach by time series of biomass observations and rainfall data. Significant greening trends from 1982 to 2010 are consistently observed in both GEOV1 and GIMMS3g FAPAR datasets. Annual rainfall increased significantly during the observed time period, explaining large parts of FAPAR variations at a regional scale. Locally, GEOV1 data reveals a heterogeneous pattern of vegetation change, which is confirmed by long-term ground data and site visits. The spatial variability in the observed vegetation trends in the Sahel area are mainly caused by varying tree- and land-cover, which are controlled by human impact, soil and drought resilience. A large proportion of the positive trends are caused by the increment in leaf biomass of woody species that has almost doubled since the 1980s due to a tree cover regeneration after a dry-period. This confirms the re-greening of the Sahel, however, degradation is also present and sometimes obscured by greening. GEOV1 as compared to GIMMS3g made it possible to better characterize the spatial pattern of trends and identify the degraded areas in the study region.

  19. Trends and determinant factors in hypertension control in a population study with 25 years of follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla O; Jensen, Gorm B

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The present study focused on trend in hypertension control and on determinant factors that may influence efficacy in antihypertensive therapy. Two measures of treatment efficacy were used: population blood pressure and the relative frequency of effectively treated patients (blood press...

  20. Socioeconomic status and trends in risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-1992

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osler, M; Gerdes, L U; Davidsen, M

    2000-01-01

    The decline in cardiovascular mortality in Denmark during the 1980s has been greatest in the highest socioeconomic groups of the population. This study examines whether the increased social inequality in cardiovascular mortality has been accompanied by a different trend in cardiovascular risk...

  1. Predicting Rehabilitation Success Rate Trends among Ethnic Minorities Served by State Vocational Rehabilitation Agencies: A National Time Series Forecast Model Demonstration Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Corey L.; Wang, Ningning; Washington, Janique Tynez

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This study assessed and demonstrated the efficacy of two select empirical forecast models (i.e., autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA] model vs. grey model [GM]) in accurately predicting state vocational rehabilitation agency (SVRA) rehabilitation success rate trends across six different racial and ethnic population cohorts…

  2. Rate and Time Trend of Perinatal, Infant, Maternal Mortality, Natality and Natural Population Growth in Kosovo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    Aim: The aim of work has been the presentation of the rate and time trends of some indicators of the heath condition of mothers and children in Kosovo: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. Methods: The data were taken from: register of the patients treated in the Pediatric Clinic of Prishtina, World Health Organization, Mother and Child Health Care, Reproductive Health Care, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kosovo, Statistical Department of Kosovo, the National Institute of Public Health and several academic texts in the field of pediatrics. Some indicators were analyzed in a period between year 1945-2010 and 1950-2010, whereas some others were analyzed in a time period between year 2000 and 2011. Results: The perinatal mortality rate in 2000 was 29.1‰, whereas in 2011 it was 18.7‰. The fetal mortality rate was 14.5‰ during the year 2000, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰, in 2000 the early neonatal mortality was 14.8‰, in 2011 it was 7.5‰. The infant mortality in Kosovo was 164‰ in 1950, whereas in 2010 it was 20.5‰. The most frequent causes of infant mortality have been: lower respiratory tract infections, acute infective diarrhea, perinatal causes, congenital malformations and unclassified conditions. Maternal death rate varied during this time period. Maternal death in 2000 was 23 whereas in 2010 only two cases were reported. Regarding the natality, in 1950 it reached 46.1 ‰, whereas in 2010 it reached 14‰, natural growth of population rate in Kosovo was 29.1‰ in 1950, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰. Conclusion: Perinatal mortality rate in Kosovo is still high in comparison with other European countries (Turkey and Kyrgyzstan have the highest perinatal mortality rate), even though it is in a

  3. Mapping Clearances in Tropical Dry Forests Using Breakpoints, Trend, and Seasonal Components from MODIS Time Series: Does Forest Type Matter?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grogan, Kenneth; Pflugmacher, Dirk; Hostert, Patrick; Verbesselt, Jan; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2016-01-01

    Tropical environments present a unique challenge for optical time series analysis, primarily owing to fragmented data availability, persistent cloud cover and atmospheric aerosols. Additionally, little is known of whether the performance of time series change detection is affected by diverse forest

  4. Trends in knee arthroscopy and subsequent arthroplasty in an Australian population: a retrospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Knee arthroscopy is a common procedure in orthopaedic surgery. In recent times the efficacy of this procedure has been questioned with a number of randomized controlled trials demonstrating a lack of effect in the treatment of osteoarthritis. Consequently, a number of trend studies have been conducted, exploring rates of knee arthroscopy and subsequent conversion to Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA) with varying results. Progression to TKA is seen as an indicator of lack of effect of primary knee arthroscopy. The aim of this paper is to measure overall rates of knee arthroscopy and the proportion of these patients that undergo subsequent total knee arthroplasty (TKA) within 24 months, and to measure trends over time in an Australian population. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all adults undergoing a knee arthroscopy and TKA in all hospitals in New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 2000 and 2008. Datasets obtained from the Centre for Health Record Linkage (CHeReL) were analysed using negative binomial regression. Admission rates for knee arthroscopy were determined by year, age, gender and hospital status (public versus private) and readmission for TKA within 24 months was calculated. Results There was no significant change in the overall rate of knee arthroscopy between 2000 and 2008 (-0.68%, 95% CI: -2.80 to 1.49). The rates declined in public hospitals (-1.25%, 95% CI: -2.39 to -0.10) and remained relatively steady in private hospitals (0.42%, 95% CI: -1.43 to 0.60). The proportion of patients 65 years or over undergoing TKA within 24 months of knee arthroscopy was 21.5%. After adjusting for age and gender, there was a significant decline in rates of TKA within 24 months of knee arthroscopy for all patients (-1.70%, 95% CI:-3.13 to -0.24), patients admitted to private hospitals (-2.65%, 95% CI: -4.06 to -1.23) and patients aged ≥65 years (-3.12%, 95% CI: -5.02 to -1.18). Conclusions Rates of knee arthroscopy are not increasing

  5. Temporal Trends in Enterobacter Species Bloodstream Infection: A Population-Based Study, 1998-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Hasan, Majdi N.; Lahr, Brian D.; Eckel-Passow, Jeanette E.; Baddour, Larry M.

    2010-01-01

    Enterobacter species are the fourth most common cause of gram-negative bloodstream infection (BSI). We examined temporal changes and seasonal variation in the incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI, estimated 28-day and 1-year mortality, and determined in vitro antimicrobial resistance rates of Enterobacter spp. bloodstream isolates in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from 1/1/1998 to 12/31/2007. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to examine temporal changes and seasonal variation in incidence rate and Kaplan-Meier method to estimate 28-day and 1-year mortality. The median age of patients with Enterobacter spp. BSI was 58 years and 53% were female. The overall age- and gender-adjusted incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI was 3.3/100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.3-4.4). There was a linear trend of increasing incidence rate from 0.8 (95% CI: 0-1.9) to 6.2 (95% CI: 3.0-9.3) per 100,000 person-years between 1998 and 2007 (p=0.002). There was no significant difference in the incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI during the warmest four months compared to the remainder of the year (incidence rate ratio 1.06 [95% CI: 0.47-2.01]). The overall 28-day and 1-year mortality rates of Enterobacter spp. BSI were 21% (95% CI: 8-34%) and 38% (95% CI: 22-53%), respectively. Up to 13% of Enterobacter spp. bloodstream isolates were resistant to third-generation cephalosporins. To our knowledge, this is the first population-based study to describe the epidemiology and outcome of Enterobacter spp. BSI. The increase in incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI over the past decade, coupled with its associated antimicrobial resistance, dictate more investigation of this syndrome. PMID:20518795

  6. Time trends in population prevalence of eating disorder behaviors and their relationship to quality of life.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Mitchison

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine temporal trends in the burden of eating disorder (ED features, as estimated by the composite of their prevalence and impact upon quality of life (QoL over a period of 10 years. METHODOLOGY: Representative samples of 3010 participants in 1998 and 3034 participants in 2008 from the South Australian adult population were assessed for endorsement of ED features (objective binge eating, extreme dieting, and purging were assessed in both years; subjective binge eating and extreme weight/shape concerns were also assessed in 2008 and QoL using the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form (SF-36. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From 1998 to 2008 significant increases in the prevalence of objective binge eating (2.7% to 4.9%, p0.05. Multiple linear regressions found that in 1998 only objective binge eating significantly predicted scores on the mental health summary scale of the SF-36; however, in 2008 extreme weight/shape concerns, extreme dieting, and subjective binge eating were also significant predictors. Objective binge eating and extreme dieting were significant predictors of scores on the physical health summary scale of the SF-36 in both 1998 and 2008. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: The prevalence of ED behaviors increased between 1998 and 2008, while their impact on QoL remained stable. This suggests an overall increase in the burden of disordered eating from 1998 to 2008. Given that binge eating and extreme dieting predict impairment in QoL, the necessity of interventions to prevent both under- and over-eating is reinforced.

  7. Trends in skin cancer knowledge, sun protection practices and behaviours in the Northern Ireland population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavin, Anna; Boyle, Rhonda; Donnelly, David; Donnelly, Conan; Gordon, Sandra; McElwee, Gerry; O'Hagan, Art

    2012-06-01

    Sun exposure increases risk of skin cancer, especially melanoma, incidence of which continues to rise. Reported skin cancer knowledge and trends in sun care behaviours are documented in a UK region where there has been 20 years of sun-related health promotion campaigns. In 2000, 2004 and 2008, a 'care in the sun' module was included in the Northern Ireland (NI) Omnibus survey. Randomly selected subjects were asked to complete a sun-related questionnaire and proportions of respondents analysed by demographic and socio-economic factors, with differences tested using z-tests and the chi-squared test. Around 3623 persons responded. Skin cancer knowledge was high (97%). Sun avoidance decreased with time and was lowest among younger age groups and males. Sunscreen use was high (70%), unchanged over 8 years, and more likely among younger age groups, females, those in paid employment, and those with tertiary level education. Use of sunscreen with minimum Sun Protection Factor (SPF) 15 (a campaign message) increased from 45% to 70% (P < 0.01). Skin self-examination was infrequent (8%), less common among those aged ≥65 years, males and those with only primary or secondary level education. Messages on sunscreen use have penetrated the population well, but lower use among the unemployed suggests cost as an issue. Lack of sun avoidance in young people, especially men, poses a risk for further skin cancer increases. Low levels of reported skin self-examination in older people, men and those with lower educational attainment identify areas for further action.

  8. Trends in the incidence of cancer in the black population of Harare, Zimbabwe 1991-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chokunonga, E; Borok, M Z; Chirenje, Z M; Nyakabau, A M; Parkin, D M

    2013-08-01

    Incidence rates of different cancers have been calculated for the black population of Harare, Zimbabwe for a 20-year period (1991-2010) coinciding with continuing social and lifestyle changes, and the peak, and subsequent wane, of the HIV-AIDS epidemic. The overall risk of cancer increased during the period in both sexes, with rates of cervix and prostate cancers showing particularly dramatic increases (3.3% and 6.4% annually, respectively). By 2004, prostate cancer had become the most common cancer of men. The incidence of cancer of the esophagus, formerly the most common cancer of men, has remained relatively constant, whereas rates of breast and cervix cancers, the most common malignancies of women, have shown significant increases (4.9% and 3.3% annually, respectively). The incidence of Kaposi sarcoma increased to a maximum around 1998-2000 and then declined in all age groups, and in both sexes The incidence of squamous cell cancers of the conjunctiva is relatively high, with temporal trends similar to those of Kaposi sarcoma. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma, the fifth most common cancer of men and fourth of women, showed a steady increase in incidence throughout the period (6.7-6.9% annually), although rates in young adults (15-39) have decreased since 2001. Cancer control in Zimbabwe, as elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, involves meeting the challenge of emerging cancers associated with westernization of lifestyles (large bowel, breast and prostate), while the incidence of cancers associated with poverty and infection (liver, cervix and esophagus) shows little decline, and the residual burden of the AIDS-associated cancers remains significant. Copyright © 2013 UICC.

  9. Socioeconomic status and trends in alcohol drinking in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-92

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osler, M; Jørgensen, Torben; Grønbaek, M

    2001-01-01

    AIMS: To examine trends in alcohol drinking in different educational groups. METHODS: Data from three cross-sectional WHO MONICA surveys conducted in 1982-84, 1987, and 1991-92 were analysed to estimate trends in abstention, moderate, heavy, and sporadic heavy alcohol use in relation to level of ...

  10. Trends in preterm birth in singleton deliveries in a Hong Kong population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hui, Annie S. Y.; Lao, Terence T.; Leung, Tak Yeung; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Sahota, Daljit S.

    2014-01-01

    To examine trends in preterm birth and its relationship with perinatal mortality in Hong Kong. In a retrospective cohort study, data were reviewed from singletons delivered between 1995 and 2011 at a university teaching hospital. Trends in preterm birth (between 24 and 36 weeks of pregnancy),

  11. Population trends in Pacific Oceanic sharks and the utility of regulations on shark finning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Shelley C; Harley, Shelton J; Hoyle, Simon D; Rice, Joel S

    2013-02-01

    Accurate assessment of shark population status is essential for conservation but is often constrained by limited and unreliable data. To provide a basis for improved management of shark resources, we analyzed a long-term record of species-specific catches, sizes, and sexes of sharks collected by onboard observers in the western and central Pacific Ocean from 1995 to 2010. Using generalized linear models, we estimated population-status indicators on the basis of catch rate and biological indicators of fishing pressure on the basis of median size to identify trends for blue (Prionace glauca), mako (Isurus spp.), oceanic whitetip (Carcharhinus longimanus), and silky (Carcharhinus falciformis) sharks. Standardized catch rates of longline fleets declined significantly for blue sharks in the North Pacific (by 5% per year [CI 2% to 8%]), for mako sharks in the North Pacific (by 7% per year [CI 3% to 11%]), and for oceanic whitetip sharks in tropical waters (by 17% per year [CI 14% to 20%]). Median lengths of silky and oceanic whitetip sharks decreased significantly in their core habitat, and almost all sampled silky sharks were immature. Our results are consistent with results of analyses of similar data sets. Combined, these results and evidence of targeted fishing for sharks in some regional fisheries heighten concerns for sustainable utilization, particularly for oceanic whitetip and North Pacific blue sharks. Regional regulations that prohibit shark finning (removal of fins and discarding of the carcass) were enacted in 2007 and are in many cases the only form of control on shark catches. However, there is little evidence of a reduction of finning in longline fisheries. In addition, silky and oceanic whitetip sharks are more frequently retained than finned, which suggests that even full implementation of and adherence to a finning prohibition may not substantially reduce mortality rates for these species. We argue that finning prohibitions divert attention from

  12. Trends and structural shifts in health tourism: evidence from seasonal time-series data on health-related travel spending by Canada during 1970-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loh, Chung-Ping A

    2015-05-01

    There has been a growing interest in better understanding the trends and determinants of health tourism activities. While much of the expanding literature on health tourism offers theoretical or qualitative discussion, empirical evidences has been lacking. This study employs Canada's outbound health tourism activities as an example to examine the trends in health tourism and its association with changing domestic health care market characteristics. A time-series model that accounts for potential structural changes in the trend is employed to analyze the quarterly health-related travel spending series reported in the Balance of Payments Statistics (BOPS) during 1970-2010 (n = 156). We identified a structural shift point which marks the start of an accelerated growth of health tourism and a flattened seasonality in such activities. We found that the health tourism activities of Canadian consumers increase when the private investment in medical facilities declines or when the private MPI increases during the years following the structural-change. We discussed the possible linkage of the structural shift to the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), which went into effect in January, 1995. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Trends in International Trade in Higher Education: Implications and Options for Developing Countries. Education Working Paper Series, Number 6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashir, Sajitha

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the trends, underlying factors and implications of the trade in higher education services. The term "trade in higher education" refers to the purchase of higher education services from a foreign country using domestic resources. The objectives of this paper are to provide policy makers in developing countries, World Bank staff,…

  14. Current Practice in Research Ethics: Global Trends and New Opportunities for African Universities. Research and Innovation Policy Series. Number 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Liam

    2007-01-01

    Research Ethics has emerged as one of the most well-developed policy areas within the sphere of Research and Innovation Management. As such, for African institutions looking to strengthen their policy frameworks, develop increased collaborations, and increase research outputs, a thorough understanding of global trends in Ethics will be vital.…

  15. Trends and projections of vehicle crash related fatalities and injuries in Northwest Gondar, Ethiopia: A time series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solomon Meseret Woldeyohannes

    2014-01-01

    Conclusion: The numbers of lives lost and disabilities due to vehicle crashes indicated an upward trend in the last decade showing future burden in terms of societal and economic costs threatening the lives of many individuals. Surveillance systems that could enable to monitor patterns of vehicle crashes with preventive strategies must be established.

  16. Periodicity and time trends in the prevalence of total births and conceptions with congenital malformations among Jews and Muslims in Israel, 1999-2006: a time series study of 823,966 births.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agay-Shay, Keren; Friger, Michael; Linn, Shai; Peled, Ammatzia; Amitai, Yona; Peretz, Chava

    2012-06-01

    BACKGROUND Congenital malformations (CMs) are a leading cause of infant disability. Geophysical patterns such as 2-year, yearly, half-year, 3-month, and lunar cycles regulate much of the temporal biology of all life on Earth and may affect birth and birth outcomes in humans. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate and compare trends and periodicity in total births and CM conceptions in two Israeli populations. METHODS Poisson nonlinear models (polynomial) were applied to study and compare trends and geophysical periodicity cycles of weekly births and weekly prevalence rate of CM (CMPR), in a time-series design of conception date within and between Jews and Muslims. The population included all live births and stillbirths (n = 823,966) and CM (three anatomic systems, eight CM groups [n = 2193]) in Israel during 2000 to 2006. Data were obtained from the Ministry of Health. RESULTS We describe the trend and periodicity cycles for total birth conceptions. Of eight groups of CM, periodicity cycles were statistically significant in four CM groups for either Jews or Muslims. Lunar month and biennial periodicity cycles not previously investigated in the literature were found to be statistically significant. Biennial cycle was significant in total births (Jews and Muslims) and syndactyly (Muslims), whereas lunar month cycle was significant in total births (Muslims) and atresia of small intestine (Jews). CONCLUSION We encourage others to use the method we describe as an important tool to investigate the effects of different geophysical cycles on human health and pregnancy outcomes, especially CM, and to compare between populations. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome (NAS) in Southwestern Border States: Examining Trends, Population Correlates, and Implications for Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussaini, Khaleel S; Garcia Saavedra, Luigi F

    2018-03-23

    Introduction Neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) is withdrawal syndrome in newborns following birth and is primarily caused by maternal drug use during pregnancy. This study examines trends, population correlates, and policy implications of NAS in two Southwest border states. Materials and Methods A cross-sectional analysis of Hospital Inpatient Discharge Data (HIDD) was utilized to examine the incidence of NAS in the Southwest border states of Arizona (AZ) and New Mexico (NM). All inpatient hospital births in AZ and NM from January 1, 2008 through December 31, 2013 with ICD9-CM codes for NAS (779.5), cocaine (760.72), or narcotics (760.75) were extracted. Results During 2008-2013 there were 1472 NAS cases in AZ and 888 in NM. The overall NAS rate during this period was 2.83 per 1000 births (95% CI 2.68-2.97) in AZ and 5.31 (95% CI 4.96-5.66) in NM. NAS rates increased 157% in AZ and 174% in NM. NAS newborns were more likely to have low birth weight, have respiratory distress, more likely to have feeding difficulties, and more likely to be on state Medicaid insurance. AZ border region (border with Mexico) had NAS rates significantly higher than the state rate (4.06 per 1000 births [95% CI 3.68-4.44] vs. 2.83 [95% CI 2.68-2.97], respectively). In NM, the border region rate (2.09 per 1000 births [95% CI 1.48-2.69]) was significantly lower than the state rate (5.31 [95% CI 4.96-5.66]). Conclusions Despite a dramatic increase in the incidence of NAS in the U.S. and, in particular, the Southwest border states of AZ and NM, there is still scant research on the overall incidence of NAS, its assessment in the southwest border, and associated long-term outcomes. The Healthy Border (HB) 2020 binational initiative of the U.S.-Mexico Border Health Commission is an initiative that addresses several public health priorities that not only include chronic and degenerative diseases, infectious diseases, injury prevention, maternal and child health but also mental health and

  18. Trends in adverse maternal outcomes during childbirth: a population-based study of severe maternal morbidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Christine L; Ford, Jane B; Algert, Charles S; Bell, Jane C; Simpson, Judy M; Morris, Jonathan M

    2009-02-25

    Maternal mortality is too rare in high income countries to be used as a marker of the quality of maternity care. Consequently severe maternal morbidity has been suggested as a better indicator. Using the maternal morbidity outcome indicator (MMOI) developed and validated for use in routinely collected population health data, we aimed to determine trends in severe adverse maternal outcomes during the birth admission and in particular to examine the contribution of postpartum haemorrhage (PPH). We applied the MMOI to the linked birth-hospital discharge records for all women who gave birth in New South Wales, Australia from 1999 to 2004 and determined rates of severe adverse maternal outcomes. We used frequency distributions and contingency table analyses to examine the association between adverse outcomes and maternal, pregnancy and birth characteristics, among all women and among only those with PPH. Using logistic regression, we modelled the effects of these characteristics on adverse maternal outcomes. The impact of adverse outcomes on duration of hospital admission was also examined. Of 500,603 women with linked birth and hospital records, 6242 (12.5 per 1,000) suffered an adverse outcome, including 22 who died. The rate of adverse maternal outcomes increased from 11.5 in 1999 to 13.8 per 1000 deliveries in 2004, an annual increase of 3.8% (95%CI 2.3-5.3%). This increase occurred almost entirely among women with a PPH. Changes in pregnancy and birth factors during the study period did not account for increases in adverse outcomes either overall, or among the subgroup of women with PPH. Among women with severe adverse outcomes there was a 12% decrease in hospital days over the study period, whereas women with no severe adverse outcome occupied 23% fewer hospital days in 2004 than in 1999. Severe adverse maternal outcomes associated with childbirth have increased in Australia and the increase was entirely among women who experienced a PPH. Reducing or stabilising

  19. Trends in adverse maternal outcomes during childbirth: a population-based study of severe maternal morbidity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Algert Charles S

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Maternal mortality is too rare in high income countries to be used as a marker of the quality of maternity care. Consequently severe maternal morbidity has been suggested as a better indicator. Using the maternal morbidity outcome indicator (MMOI developed and validated for use in routinely collected population health data, we aimed to determine trends in severe adverse maternal outcomes during the birth admission and in particular to examine the contribution of postpartum haemorrhage (PPH. Methods We applied the MMOI to the linked birth-hospital discharge records for all women who gave birth in New South Wales, Australia from 1999 to 2004 and determined rates of severe adverse maternal outcomes. We used frequency distributions and contingency table analyses to examine the association between adverse outcomes and maternal, pregnancy and birth characteristics, among all women and among only those with PPH. Using logistic regression, we modelled the effects of these characteristics on adverse maternal outcomes. The impact of adverse outcomes on duration of hospital admission was also examined. Results Of 500,603 women with linked birth and hospital records, 6242 (12.5 per 1,000 suffered an adverse outcome, including 22 who died. The rate of adverse maternal outcomes increased from 11.5 in 1999 to 13.8 per 1000 deliveries in 2004, an annual increase of 3.8% (95%CI 2.3–5.3%. This increase occurred almost entirely among women with a PPH. Changes in pregnancy and birth factors during the study period did not account for increases in adverse outcomes either overall, or among the subgroup of women with PPH. Among women with severe adverse outcomes there was a 12% decrease in hospital days over the study period, whereas women with no severe adverse outcome occupied 23% fewer hospital days in 2004 than in 1999. Conclusion Severe adverse maternal outcomes associated with childbirth have increased in Australia and the increase was

  20. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 32; Estimates of AOD Trends (2002 - 2012) Over the World's Major Cities Based on the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provencal, Simon; Kishcha, Pavel; Elhacham, Emily; daSilva, Arlindo M.; Alpert, Pinhas; Suarez, Max J.

    2014-01-01

    NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has extended the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) tool with five atmospheric aerosol species (sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt). This inclusion of aerosol reanalysis data is now known as MERRAero. This study analyses a ten-year period (July 2002 - June 2012) MERRAero aerosol reanalysis applied to the study of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its trends for the aforementioned aerosol species over the world's major cities (with a population of over 2 million inhabitants). We found that a proportion of various aerosol species in total AOD exhibited a geographical dependence. Cities in industrialized regions (North America, Europe, central and eastern Asia) are characterized by a strong proportion of sulfate aerosols. Organic carbon aerosols are dominant over cities which are located in regions where biomass burning frequently occurs (South America and southern Africa). Mineral dust dominates other aerosol species in cities located in proximity to the major deserts (northern Africa and western Asia). Sea salt aerosols are prominent in coastal cities but are dominant aerosol species in very few of them. AOD trends are declining over cities in North America, Europe and Japan, as a result of effective air quality regulation. By contrast, the economic boom in China and India has led to increasing AOD trends over most cities in these two highly-populated countries. Increasing AOD trends over cities in the Middle East are caused by increasing desert dust.

  1. Secular trends in child and adult sexual violence--one decreasing and the other increasing: a population survey in Ireland.

    OpenAIRE

    McGee, Hannah; Garavan, Rebecca; Byrne, Joanne; O'Higgins, Madeleine; Conroy, Ronán M

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Sexual violence is a worldwide problem affecting children and adults. Knowledge of trends in prevalence is essential to inform the design and evaluation of preventive and intervention programmes. We aimed to assess the prevalence of lifetime sexual violence for both sexes and to document the prevalence of adult and child abuse by birth year in the general population. METHODS: National cluster-randomized telephone interview study of 3120 adults in Ireland was done. RESULTS: C...

  2. Trend Analysis of Soil Salinity in Different Land Cover Types Using Landsat Time Series Data (case Study Bakhtegan Salt Lake)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghadosi, M. M.; Hasanlou, M.

    2017-09-01

    Soil salinity is one of the main causes of desertification and land degradation which has negative impacts on soil fertility and crop productivity. Monitoring salt affected areas and assessing land cover changes, which caused by salinization, can be an effective approach to rehabilitate saline soils and prevent further salinization of agricultural fields. Using potential of satellite imagery taken over time along with remote sensing techniques, makes it possible to determine salinity changes at regional scales. This study deals with monitoring salinity changes and trend of the expansion in different land cover types of Bakhtegan Salt Lake district during the last two decades using multi-temporal Landsat images. For this purpose, per-pixel trend analysis of soil salinity during years 2000 to 2016 was performed and slope index maps of the best salinity indicators were generated for each pixel in the scene. The results of this study revealed that vegetation indices (GDVI and EVI) and also salinity indices (SI-1 and SI-3) have great potential to assess soil salinity trends in vegetation and bare soil lands respectively due to more sensitivity to salt features over years of study. In addition, images of May had the best performance to highlight changes in pixels among different months of the year. A comparative analysis of different slope index maps shows that more than 76% of vegetated areas have experienced negative trends during 17 years, of which about 34% are moderately and highly saline. This percent is increased to 92% for bare soil lands and 29% of salt affected soils had severe salinization. It can be concluded that the areas, which are close to the lake, are more affected by salinity and salts from the lake were brought into the soil which will lead to loss of soil productivity ultimately.

  3. Population trends and current status of the endangered Pyrenean sculpin Cottus hispaniolensis in the Spanish part of the Garonne drainage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rocaspana Rafel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The status of Pyrenean sculpin Cottus hispaniolensis was assessed in the Spanish part of the Garonne drainage on the basis of its distribution and abundance from 2001 to 2016. Population trends showed a progressive reduction in range extension and density, exacerbated by a severe spate occurred in 2013. However, C. hispaniolensis was resilient to this natural disturbance by compensating for mortality with increasing recruitment. Both occurrence and density of Pyrenean sculpin showed a positive correlation with coarse substrates. Riverine habitat deterioration, mainly channelization, presence of dams and flow regulation are the main factors threatening sculpin populations. Several management measures are proposed.

  4. Trends in Stroke Incidence and 28-Day Case Fatality in a Nationwide Stroke Registry of a Multiethnic Asian Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Chuen Seng; Müller-Riemenschneider, Falk; Ng, Sheryl Hui Xian; Tan, Pei Zheng; Chan, Bernard P L; Tang, Kok-Foo; Ahmad, Aftab; Kong, Keng He; Chang, Hui Meng; Chow, Khuan Yew; Koh, Gerald Choon-Huat; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy

    2015-10-01

    This study investigated trends in stroke incidence and case fatality overall and according to sex, age, ethnicity, and stroke subtype in a multiethnic Asian population. The Singapore Stroke Registry identifies all stroke cases in all public hospitals using medical claims, hospital discharge summaries, and death registry data. Age-standardized incidence rates and 28-day case-fatality rates were calculated for individuals aged ≥15 years between 2006 and 2012. To estimate the annual percentage change of the rates, a linear regression model was fitted to the log rates, and a Wald test was performed to test for trend. P values Chinese (-2.64; 95% CI, -3.15 to -2.13), Indians (-3.78; 95% CI, -5.93 to -1.58), and others (-12.73; 95% CI, -18.93 to -6.06) compared with Malays (2.58; 95% CI, 1.17 to 4.02); and in ischemic stroke subtype (ischemic: -2.43; 95% CI, -3.13 to -1.73; hemorrhagic: -1.02; 95% CI, -2.04 to 0.01). Subgroup-specific findings for case fatality were similar. This is the first countrywide hospital-based registry study in a multiethnic Asian population, and it revealed marked overall reductions in stroke incidence and case fatality. However, it also identified important population groups with less favorable trends, especially younger adults and those of Malay ethnicity. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  5. The international performance of healthcare systems in population health: capabilities of pooled cross-sectional time series methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reibling, Nadine

    2013-09-01

    This paper outlines the capabilities of pooled cross-sectional time series methodology for the international comparison of health system performance in population health. It shows how common model specifications can be improved so that they not only better address the specific nature of time series data on population health but are also more closely aligned with our theoretical expectations of the effect of healthcare systems. Three methodological innovations for this field of applied research are discussed: (1) how dynamic models help us understand the timing of effects, (2) how parameter heterogeneity can be used to compare performance across countries, and (3) how multiple imputation can be used to deal with incomplete data. We illustrate these methodological strategies with an analysis of infant mortality rates in 21 OECD countries between 1960 and 2008 using OECD Health Data. Copyright © 2013 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. Thomas-Reiche-Khun populations in X-CH 3 and X-C 2H 5 series of molecules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zitto, M. E.; Caputo, M. C.; Ferraro, M. B.; Lazzeretti, P.

    2000-09-01

    Calculations of nuclear electric shieldings, equivalent to dipole moment geometric derivatives, and related to atomic polar tensors, are presented for X-CH 3 and X-C 2H 5 molecules with X=NH 2, OH and F. The electric shielding tensors satisfy a constraint for the electrostatic equilibrium, i.e., the mixed length-acceleration Thomas-Reiche-Khun sum rule, which gives important indications on the reliability of theoretical predictions of IR intensities and leads to the definition of atomic populations. Numerical evidence was found for the additivity and transferability of atomic populations, within the X-substituted alkane series.

  7. Population Estimates and Projections: Projections of the Population of the United States, 1975 to 2050. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 601.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Campbell; Wetrogan, Signe

    This report presents population projections of the United States by age, sex, and the components of population changes, births, deaths, and net immigration. These projections are shown annually by race--white and black--from 1975 to 2000 and in less detail for the total population from 2000 to 2050. In 1974, the population of the United States,…

  8. Temporal trend of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis incidence in southern Europe: a population study in the health district of Ferrara, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govoni, Vittorio; Cesnik, Edward; Casetta, Ilaria; Tugnoli, Valeria; Tola, Maria Rosaria; Granieri, Enrico

    2012-08-01

    Data about the temporal trend of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) incidence in southern Europe are scarce. Incidence studies on ALS have been carried out in the health district of Ferrara, Italy, since 1960s. We expanded the previous studies from 1964 to 2009. The study was prospective with a subsequent retrospective intensive survey of multiple sources of case ascertainment. All patients with a definite and probable ALS according to the original El Escorial criteria were selected. There were 130 incident cases in the years 1964-2009 giving an average annual crude incidence of 1.82 per 100,000 population (95% CI 1.53-2.17). An incidence increase during the study period was estimated in women (χ(2) test for trend = 7.19, p < 0.01) and in the elderly (χ(2) test for trend = 7.803, p < 0.01). The age-adjusted incidence was stable over time in both women (1.19 per 100,000, 95% CI 0.90-1.52) and men (1.45 per 100,000, 95% CI 0.12-1.84). The annual number of new ALS cases in the study population followed the Poisson distribution in both sexes as well as in the elderly group of the population. The present findings suggest that ALS incidence is nearly stable over time. The crude incidence increase we estimated over time among women is mainly explained by population ageing. The increasing incidence in the elderly population was likely the consequence of an increasing precision in ALS diagnosis in the elderly since the increasing attention and care over time of neurologic elderly patients that likely concern elderly women more than previous time periods rather than better case ascertainment of diagnosed patients. The present findings do not support the role of specific environmental factors in ALS pathogenesis.

  9. Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: a Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J Rodhouse

    Full Text Available Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas] population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones" with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity--a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

  10. Great Lakes prey fish populations: a cross-basin overview of status and trends based on bottom trawl surveys, 1978-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, Owen T.; Weidel, Brian C.

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of Great Lakes prey fish stocks have been conducted annually with bottom trawls since the 1970s by the Great Lakes Science Center, sometimes assisted by partner agencies. These stock assessments provide data on the status and trends of prey fish that are consumed by important commercial and recreational fishes. Although all these annual surveys are conducted using bottom trawls, they differ among the lakes in the proportion of the lake covered, seasonal timing, trawl gear used, and the manner in which the trawl is towed (across or along bottom contours). Because each assessment is unique, population indices were standardized to the highest value for a time series within each lake for the following prey species: Cisco (Coregonus artedi), Bloater (C. hoyi), Rainbow Smelt (Osmerus mordax), Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), and Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus). In this report, standardized indices are presented in graphical form along with synopses to provide a short, informal cross-basin summary of the status and trends of principal prey fishes. There was basin-wide agreement in the trends of age-1 and older biomass for all prey species, with the highest concordance occurring for coregonids and Rainbow Smelt, and weaker concordance for Alewife. For coregonids, the highest biomass occurred from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s. Rainbow Smelt biomass declined slowly and erratically during the last quarter century. Alewife biomass was generally higher from the early 1980s through 1990s across the Great Lakes, but since the early 1990s, trends have been divergent across the lakes, though there has been a downward trend in all lakes since 2005. Recently, Lake Huron has shown resurgence in biomass of Bloater, achieving 75% of its maximum record in 2012 due to recruitment of a succession of strong and moderate year classes that appeared in 2005-2011. Also, strong recruitment of the 2010 year class of Alewife has led to a sharp increase in biomass of Alewife in

  11. Gender difference and economic gradients in the secular trend of population systolic blood pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla; Jensen, Gorm B

    2013-01-01

    are treated without income associated treatment differences. In conclusion: Women in higher income groups have lower SBP than women in low-income groups and the gap between SBP in high-income women and low-income women increased with time. There were no significant differences in SBP-trend associated...

  12. Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morken, N.H.; Vogel, I.; Kallen, K.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. METHODS: We studied all live births and stillbirths (>or= 28 weeks gestation) registered in the medical birth...

  13. Trends and Implications of Proposed Changes to the "DSM-5" for Vulnerable Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Raissa; Prosek, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    The revision process for the "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed., text rev.; American Psychiatric Association, 2000) has increased consciousness for the role of diagnosis in counseling. In this article, the authors discuss 3 trends of the proposed changes: the influence of the medical model, the attention to…

  14. Contact sensitization to cosmetic series of allergens in a general population in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jian; Li, Lin-Feng

    2014-03-01

    Cosmetic allergic contact dermatitis (CACD) due to common cosmetic allergens in standard series has been extensively studied; however, the prevalence of contact allergy to other cosmetic allergens other than those in standard series is largely unknown. In this study, the frequency of contact sensitization to a European cosmetic series of allergens (Chemotechnique Diagnostics, Vellinge, Sweden) in healthy university student volunteers were detected in Beijing. Of 201 students studied, fifty-eight exhibited positive results, and 9 of them reported had cosmetics related dermatitis previously. The total positivity rate was not correlated to gender. The leading allergens were thimerosal (19.4%), shellac (3.0%), cocamidopropyl betaine (2.0%), hexamethylenetetramine (1.5%), dodecyl gallate (1.5%), hexahydro-1,3,5-tris-(2-hydroxyethyl)triazine (1.0%) and methyldibromo glutaronitrile (1.0%). The positivity rate of thimerosal patch test in men (9.8%) was lower than that of women (23.6%, P cosmetic allergens in men and women (P > 0.05, Chi square test). These results suggested that some cosmetic-related contact allergies may be missed by just testing patients with the European standard series or T.R.U.E. test system only, we recommend shellac, cocamidopropyl betaine, hexamethylenetetramine and dodecyl gallate as the additionally candidates for patch testing in patients with suspected CACD. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Trends in Female Breast Cancer by Age Group in the Chiang Mai Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sripan, Patumrat; Sriplung, Hutcha; Pongnikorn, Donsuk; Virani, Shama; Bilheem, Surichai; Chaisaengkhaum, Udomlak; Maneesai, Puttachart; Waisri, Narate; Hanpragopsuk, Chirapong; Tansiri, Panrada; Khamsan, Varunee; Poungsombat, Malisa; Mawoot, Aumnart; Chitapanarux, Imjai

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: This study was conducted to determine incidence trends of female breast cancer according to age groups and to predict future change in Chiang Mai women through 2028. Method: Data were collected from all hospitals in Chiang Mai in northern Thailand, from 1989 through 2013, and used to investigate effects of age, year of diagnosis (period) and year of birth (cohort) on female breast cancer incidences using an age-period-cohort model. This model features geometric cut trends to predict change by young (<40 years), middle-aged (40-59) and elderly (≥60) age groups. Result: Of 5, 417 female breast cancer patients with a median age of 50 years (interquartile range: 43 to 59 years), 15%, 61% and 24% were young, middle-aged and elderly, respectively. Seventy nine percent of cancer cases in this study were detected at advanced stage. The trend in stage classification showed an increase in percentage of early stage and a decrease in metastatic cancers. Linear trends for cohort and period were not found in young females but were observed in middle-aged and elderly groups. Age-standardized rates (ASR) can be expected to remain stable around 6.8 per 100,000 women-years in young females. In the other age groups, the ASR trends were calculated to increase and reach peaks in 2024 of 120.2 and 138.2 per 100,000 women-years, respectively. Conclusion: Cohort effects or generation-specific effects, such as life style factors and the year of diagnosis (period) might have impacted on increased incidence in women aged over 40 years but not those under 40 years. A budget should be provided for treatment facilities and strategies to detect early stage cancers. The cost effectiveness of screening measures i.e. mammographic screening may need to be reconsidered for women age over 40 years. PMID:28612595

  16. Secular trends in child and adult sexual violence--one decreasing and the other increasing: a population survey in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Hannah; Garavan, Rebecca; Byrne, Joanne; O'Higgins, Madeleine; Conroy, Ronán M

    2011-02-01

    Sexual violence is a worldwide problem affecting children and adults. Knowledge of trends in prevalence is essential to inform the design and evaluation of preventive and intervention programmes. We aimed to assess the prevalence of lifetime sexual violence for both sexes and to document the prevalence of adult and child abuse by birth year in the general population. National cluster-randomized telephone interview study of 3120 adults in Ireland was done. Child sexual abuse involving physical contact was reported by 20% of women and 16% of men. In adulthood, figures were 20% and 10% for women and men, respectively. Prevalence of any form of sexual violence across the lifespan was 42% (women) and 38% (men). Analysis by year of birth indicated a curvilinear pattern for child sexual abuse with lower prevalence in the oldest and youngest participants. Sexual violence in young adulthood showed a linear pattern with higher prevalence in the youngest participants. The trend of lower rates of experience of child sexual abuse in younger adults in the sample is in keeping with findings from other countries. The trend of higher rates of adult sexual violence in younger adults is worrying, particularly since the same participants reported less experience of child sexual abuse than the preceding generations. There is a paucity of international data addressing the issue of cohort differences in exposure to sexual violence. Within-study analysis, and follow-up studies designed to maximize replicability, are needed to inform discussion about societal trends in different types of sexual violence.

  17. Monitoring Agricultural Expansion in Burkina Faso over 14 Years with 30 m Resolution Time Series: The Role of Population Growth and Implications for the Environment

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    Kim Knauer

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Burkina Faso ranges amongst the fastest growing countries in the world with an annual population growth rate of more than three percent. This trend has consequences for food security since agricultural productivity is still on a comparatively low level in Burkina Faso. In order to compensate for the low productivity, the agricultural areas are expanding quickly. The mapping and monitoring of this expansion is difficult, even on the basis of remote sensing imagery, since the extensive farming practices and frequent cloud coverage in the area make the delineation of cultivated land from other land cover and land use types a challenging task. However, as the rapidly increasing population could have considerable effects on the natural resources and on the regional development of the country, methods for improved mapping of LULCC (land use and land cover change are needed. For this study, we applied the newly developed ESTARFM (Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model framework to generate high temporal (8-day and high spatial (30 m resolution NDVI time series for all of Burkina Faso for the years 2001, 2007, and 2014. For this purpose, more than 500 Landsat scenes and 3000 MODIS scenes were processed with this automated framework. The generated ESTARFM NDVI time series enabled extraction of per-pixel phenological features that all together served as input for the delineation of agricultural areas via random forest classification at 30 m spatial resolution for entire Burkina Faso and the three years. For training and validation, a randomly sampled reference dataset was generated from Google Earth images and based on expert knowledge. The overall accuracies of 92% (2001, 91% (2007, and 91% (2014 indicate the well-functioning of the applied methodology. The results show an expansion of agricultural area of 91% between 2001 and 2014 to a total of 116,900 km². While rainfed agricultural areas account for the major part of this

  18. Four-year trends in adiposity and its association with hypertension in serial groups of young adult university students in urban Cameroon: a time-series study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choukem, Simeon-Pierre; Kengne, André-Pascal; Nguefack, Maxime-Leolein; Mboue-Djieka, Yannick; Nebongo, Daniel; Guimezap, Jackson T; Mbanya, Jean Claude

    2017-05-23

    Obesity is a major risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and is growing rapidly globally including in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We aimed to assess the trend in adiposity markers in Cameroonian university students, and investigated their associations with hypertension. From 2009 to 2012, we annually measured weight, height, blood pressure, waist (WC) and hip circumferences, and calculated the body mass index (BMI) and other indices of adiposity in consecutive students aged 18 years or above, during their registration. Time-trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity were estimated, and their associations with prevalent hypertension investigated. Among the 2726 participants, the overall prevalence of obesity, overweight and obesity combined, and hypertension was 3.5%, 21.0% and 6.3% respectively. From 2009 to 2012, the prevalence of overweight and obesity increased in men only, from 13.1% to 20.9% (p-trend = 0.002), whereas prevalent abdominal obesity increased in women only, from 6.5% to 11.7% (p-trend = 0.027). The BMI and the WC were independent predictors of hypertension; each kg/m 2 higher BMI was associated with 11% higher odds of hypertension, and each centimeter higher WC was associated with 9% higher odds of hypertension. Our results show that overweight and obesity are rapidly increasing in this population of young sub-Saharan African adults, and are contributing to an increasing burden of hypertension.

  19. Population trends and live birth rates associated with common ART treatment strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Georgina M; Wand, Handan; Macaldowie, Alan; Chapman, Michael G; Farquhar, Cynthia M; Bowman, Mark; Molloy, David; Ledger, William

    2016-11-01

    Have ART live birth rates improved in Australia over the last 12 years? There were striking improvements in per-cycle live birth rates observed for frozen/thaw embryo transfers, blastocyst transfer and single embryo transfer (SET), while live birth rates following ICSI were lower than IVF for non-male factor infertility in most years. ART and associated techniques have become the predominant treatment of infertility over the past 30 years in most developed countries. However, there are differences in ART laboratory and clinical practices, and success rates worldwide. Australia has one of the highest ART utilization rates and lowest multiple birth rates in the world, thus providing a unique setting to investigate the contribution of common ART strategies in an unrestricted population of patients to ART success rates. A retrospective cohort study of 585 065 ART treatment cycles performed in Australia between 2002 and 2013 using the Australian and New Zealand Assisted Reproduction Database (ANZARD). An unrestricted population of all women who underwent autologous ART treatment between 2002 and 2013. Visual descriptive analysis was used to assess the trends in ART procedures by the calendar years. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of a live birth for four common ART techniques were calculated after controlling for important confounders including female age, infertility diagnosis, stage of the embryo (blastocyst versus cleavage stage), type of embryo (fresh versus thawed), fertilization method (IVF versus ICSI) and number of embryos transferred (SET versus multiple embryos). The overall live birth rate per embryo transfer increased from 19.2% in 2002 to 23.3% in 2013 (21.9-24.3% for fresh embryo transfers and 14.6-23.3% for frozen/thaw embryo transfers). This occurred concurrently with an increase in SET from 29.7% to 78.9%, and an increase in the average age of women undergoing treatment from 35.0 to 35.9 years. Individuals who had a frozen/thaw embryo transfer cycle in 2002

  20. THE MODERN TRENDS IN REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AND REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR OF THE FEMALE POPULATION IN RUSSIA

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    Валентина Сергеевна Гладкая

    2017-02-01

    It puts forward the proposal to establish regional centers provide comprehensive preventive, rehabilitative, recreational, informational and educational work and social-legal counseling of the female population.

  1. Great lakes prey fish populations: a cross-basin overview of status and trends based on bottom trawl surveys, 1978-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, Owen T.

    2012-01-01

    The assessment of prey fish stocks in the Great Lakes have been conducted annually with bottom trawls since the 1970s by the Great Lakes Science Center, sometimes assisted by partner agencies. These stock assessments provide data on the status and trends of prey fish that are consumed by important commercial and recreational fishes. Although all these annual surveys are conducted using bottom trawls, they differ among the lakes in the proportion of the lake covered, seasonal timing, bottom trawl gear used, and the manner in which the trawl is towed (across or along bottom contours). Because each assessment is unique in one or more important aspects, direct comparison of prey fish catches among lakes is not straightforward. However, all of the assessments produce indices of abundance or biomass that can be standardized to facilitate comparisons of status and trends across all the Great Lakes. In this report, population indices were standardized to the highest value for a time series within each lake for the following principal prey species: cisco (Coregonus artedi), bloater (C. hoyi), rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax), and alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus). Indices were also provided for round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), an invasive fish that has proliferated throughout the basin over the past 18 years. These standardized indices represent the best available long-term indices of relative abundance for these fishes across all of the Great Lakes. In this report, standardized indices are presented in graphical form along with synopses to provide a short, informal cross-basin summary of the status and trends of principal prey fishes. In keeping with this intent, tables, references, and a detailed discussion were omitted.

  2. Impact of novel techniques on minimally invasive adrenal surgery: trends and outcomes from a contemporary international large series in urology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavan, Nicola; Autorino, Riccardo; Lee, Hak; Porpiglia, Francesco; Sun, Yinghao; Greco, Francesco; Jeff Chueh, S; Han, Deok Hyun; Cindolo, Luca; Ferro, Matteo; Chen, Xiang; Branco, Anibal; Fornara, Paolo; Liao, Chun-Hou; Miyajima, Akira; Kyriazis, Iason; Puglisi, Marco; Fiori, Cristian; Yang, Bo; Fei, Guo; Altieri, Vincenzo; Jeong, Byong Chang; Berardinelli, Francesco; Schips, Luigi; De Cobelli, Ottavio; Chen, Zhi; Haber, Georges-Pascal; He, Yao; Oya, Mototsugu; Liatsikos, Evangelos; Brandao, Luis; Challacombe, Benjamin; Kaouk, Jihad; Darweesh, Ithaar

    2016-10-01

    To evaluate contemporary international trends in the implementation of minimally invasive adrenalectomy and to assess contemporary outcomes of different minimally invasive techniques performed at urologic centers worldwide. A retrospective multinational multicenter study of patients who underwent minimally invasive adrenalectomy from 2008 to 2013 at 14 urology institutions worldwide was included in the analysis. Cases were categorized based on the minimally invasive adrenalectomy technique: conventional laparoscopy (CL), robot-assisted laparoscopy (RAL), laparoendoscopic single-site surgery (LESS), and mini-laparoscopy (ML). The rates of the four treatment modalities were determined according to the year of surgery, and a regression analysis was performed for trends in all surgical modalities. Overall, a total of 737 adrenalectomies were performed across participating institutions and included in this analysis: 337 CL (46 % of cases), 57 ML (8 %), 263 LESS (36 %), and 80 RA (11 %). Overall, 204 (28 %) operations were performed with a retroperitoneal approach. The overall number of adrenalectomies increased from 2008 to 2013 (p = 0.05). A transperitoneal approach was preferred in all but the ML group (p Asia and South America reported the highest rate in LESS procedures, and RAL was adopted to larger extent in the USA. LESS had the fastest increase in utilization at 6 %/year. The rate of RAL procedures increased at slower rates (2.2 %/year), similar to ML (1.7 %/year). Limitations of this study are the retrospective design and the lack of a cost analysis. Several minimally invasive surgical techniques for the management of adrenal masses are successfully implemented in urology institutions worldwide. CL and LESS seem to represent the most commonly adopted techniques, whereas ML and RAL are growing at a slower rate. All the MIS techniques can be safely and effectively performed for a variety of adrenal disease.

  3. An Increase in the Incidence of Infective Endocarditis in England since 2008: A secular trend interrupted time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M.; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

    2017-01-01

    Background Antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) administered prior to invasive procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis (IE) has historically been the focus of IE prevention. Recent changes in AP guidelines in the US and Europe have substantially reduced the numbers for whom AP is recommended. In the UK, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommended complete cessation of AP in March 2008. We report the impact of these guidelines on AP prescribing; in addition, IE incidence was examined following the introduction of the guidelines. Methods We analyzed English AP prescribing data from January 2004 to March 2013 and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of IE from January 2000 to March 2013. Findings AP prescribing rates fell dramatically after introduction of the NICE guidance (10,935 prescriptions/month vs. 2,236 prescriptions/month, p<0·0001). Commencing in March 2008, there was also a significant increase in the number of IE cases/month (0·11 cases/10million/month, CI 0·05–0·16, p<0·0001) above the projected historical trend. By March 2013, there were an additional 35 cases/month than would have been expected if the previous trend had continued. This increase in IE incidence was significant for both ‘high-risk’ and ‘lower-risk’ individuals. Interpretation Although our data do not establish a causal relationship, there has been a substantial reduction in AP prescribing and a significant increase in IE incidence in England since introduction of the NICE guidelines in 2008. Funding Different aspects of this study were supported by Heart Research UK and Simplyhealth [Grant Ref: RG2632/13/14] and NIDCR R03 grant [Ref: 1R03DE023092-01] from the National Institutes for Health. PMID:25467569

  4. New insights into survival trend analyses in cancer population-based studies: the SUDCAN methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhry, Zoé; Bossard, Nadine; Remontet, Laurent; Iwaz, Jean; Roche, Laurent

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of the SUDCAN study was to compare, for 15 cancer sites, the trends in net survival and excess mortality rates from cancer 5 years after diagnosis between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland). The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database. The study period ranged from 6 (Portugal, 2000-2005) to 18 years (Switzerland, 1989-2007). Trend analyses were carried out separately for each country and cancer site; the number of cases ranged from 1500 to 104 000 cases. We developed an original flexible excess rate modelling strategy that accounts for the continuous effects of age, year of diagnosis, time since diagnosis and their interactions. Nineteen models were constructed; they differed in the modelling of the effect of the year of diagnosis in terms of linearity, proportionality and interaction with age. The final model was chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. The fit was assessed graphically by comparing model estimates versus nonparametric (Pohar-Perme) net survival estimates. Out of the 90 analyses carried out, the effect of the year of diagnosis on the excess mortality rate depended on age in 61 and was nonproportional in 64; it was nonlinear in 27 out of the 75 analyses where this effect was considered. The model fit was overall satisfactory. We analysed successfully 15 cancer sites in six countries. The refined methodology proved necessary for detailed trend analyses. It is hoped that three-dimensional parametric modelling will be used more widely in net survival trend studies as it has major advantages over stratified analyses.

  5. Analysis of the overweight and obesity trend in the Peruvian population

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    Carolina Tarqui-Mamani

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Overweight and obesity constitute a public health problem worldwide and also in Peru, and its study is necessary. The aim was to analyze the tendency of overweight and obesity according to age, sex and poverty. Material and methods: A trend study that analyzed overweight and obesity in 175,984 Peruvians surveyed between 2007 and 2014. The samples were representative and probabilistic of Peruvian households. Results: The trend of overweight and obesity was increased in all age groups studied (p<0.001, except for the group under 5 years of age. In men, the tendency of overweight was to increase (p<0.001 except in children. In women, the tendency was to increase in all groups (p<0.001 except the under 5 years of age and the group between 20-29 years of age. In people living in extreme poverty, the tendency of overweight was to increase in the young, adult and elderly (p<0.001. In people living in poverty, the tendency of the overweight was to increase (p<0.01, except in children of 5-9 years of age. The trend of obesity in men and women was increased (p<0.001, except in children under 5 years of age. In women, the exception was also in older adults. Analyzing poverty it was observed that in people living in extreme poverty the tendency of obesity was to increase in young people and adults (p<0.01. In people living in poverty, the tendency of obesity was to increase in adolescents, youth and adults (p<0.01. Conclusions: The trend of overweight and obesity was increased, except in children under 5 years of age, with predominance in men and people living in poverty.

  6. Farm Population Trends and Farm Characteristics. Rural Development Research Report No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Vera J.

    While total farm population is declining, the number of people living on the farms which produce the bulk of the nation's food and fiber is increasing. The 1970-75 total farm population decline was 13 percent, but the number of people living on farms with annual sales greater than $40,000 increased 76 percent. Such farms account for about 80…

  7. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

  8. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

  9. Bordetella Bronchiseptica in the Immunosuppressed Population – A Case Series and Review.

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    Abraham Tareq Yacoub

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Organisms that are not known to cause serious infection in the immunocompetent population can in fact cause devastating illness in immunosupressed neutropenic populations especially those who are undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT, and solid organ transplantation or a history of malignancy.  One organism of interest isolated from immunosupressed patients at our institution was Bordetella bronchiseptica. B. bronchiseptica is a Gram-negative, rod shaped bacterium, primary respiratory tract organism known to cause respiratory tract disease in the animal population which include dogs, cats, and rabbits. This organism rarely causes serious infection in the immunocompetent population. However; in immunosupressed patients, it can cause serious pulmonary disease. We present three cases of B. bronchiseptica isolated from patients with a history of malignancy a serious pulmonary infection.

  10. Routes to effective evacuation planning primer series : evacuating populations with special needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    Evacuation operations are conducted under the authority of, and based on decisions by, local and state authorities. The purpose of this primer, Evacuating Populations with Special Needs, is to provide local and state emergency managers, government of...

  11. Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiber, Nadia

    2015-01-01

    This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50–90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT) that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age). This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50–64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health) stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process. PMID:26323093

  12. Projections of the Population of the Republic of Croatia to the Year 2031: Can Migration Alleviate Future Negative Trends?

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    Snježana Mrđen

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents middle duration projections of Croatia’s population, until the year 2031, determined via the cohort-component method. It outlines eight variants derived from supposed hypotheses in regard to changing birth, migration and death rates. Differences in the variants are exclusively differences in birth and migration rates, since the assumptions in regard to the death rates are the same in all the variants. The corrected estimate of the population on January 1st 2001, according to the most recent census, served as the base population. The results of the projections indicate that in the next thirty years the overall and the natural population reduction of Croatia will continue, and at the end of the period (2031 the population will be demographically older than at the start (2001. The variants differ only in relation to the intensity (i.e. swiftness of the aging process, yet the direction remains the same. Thus, in the variant that assumes a positive migration balance, the process of aging would be somewhat slower. The only variant that assumes a constant proportion of young people (on the 2001 level, gradual demographic growth and at the end of the period a larger population than in 2001, is the variant based on a high birth rate and positive migration. The impact of migration is very important for future demographic processes. Namely, in the short run, migration cannot change the direction of demographic processes, but it can lessen already existing negative trends.

  13. Incidence Trend for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma in the North Tunisian Population, 1998-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benhassine, Adel; Khadhra, Hajer Ben; Khiari, Houyem; Hsairi, Mohamed; Elgaaied, Amel Benammar

    2016-01-01

    In 2008, non-Hodgkin lymphoma ranked tenth among other malignancies worldwide with an incidence of around 5 cases per 100,000 in both genders. The latest available rates in Tunisia are from 2006. This study aimed to provide an update about NHL incidence for 2009 and its trend between 1998 and 2009 as well as a projection until 2024, using data from the Salah Azaiz Institute hospital registry and the Noth Tunisia cancer registry. In 2009, the NHL incidence in the north of Tunisia was 4.03 cases per 100,000, 4.97 for men and 3.10 for women. Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) accounted for 63.2% of all NHL subtypes. Between 1998 and 2009, the overall trend showed no significant change. When we compared the trend between two periods (1998-2005 and 2005-2009), joinpoint regression showed a significant decrease of NHL incidence in the first period with an annual percentage change (APC) of -6.7% (95% CI:[-11.2%;-2%]), then the incidence significantly increased from 2005 to 2009 with an APC of 30.5% (95% CI: [16.1%; 46.6%]. The analyses of the different subtype trends showed a significant decrease in DLBCL incidence between 1998 and 2000 (APC:-21.5; 95% CI: [-31.4%;-10.2%]) then the incidence significantly increased between 2004 and 2007 (APC: 18.5; 95% CI: [3,6%;35.5%]). Joint point analysis of the age-period-cohort model projection showed a significant increase between 2002 and 2024 with an APC of 4.5% (%95 CI: [1.5%; 7.5%]). The estimated ASR for 2024 was 4.55/100 000 (95% CI: [3.37; 6.15]). This study revealed an overall steady trend in the incidence of NHL in northern Tunisia between 1998 and 2009. Projection showed an increase in the incidence in NHL in both genders which draw the attention to the national and worldwide burden of this malignancy.

  14. In search of functional association from time-series microarray data based on the change trend and level of gene expression

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    Zeng An-Ping

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The increasing availability of time-series expression data opens up new possibilities to study functional linkages of genes. Present methods used to infer functional linkages between genes from expression data are mainly based on a point-to-point comparison. Change trends between consecutive time points in time-series data have been so far not well explored. Results In this work we present a new method based on extracting main features of the change trend and level of gene expression between consecutive time points. The method, termed as trend correlation (TC, includes two major steps: 1, calculating a maximal local alignment of change trend score by dynamic programming and a change trend correlation coefficient between the maximal matched change levels of each gene pair; 2, inferring relationships of gene pairs based on two statistical extraction procedures. The new method considers time shifts and inverted relationships in a similar way as the local clustering (LC method but the latter is merely based on a point-to-point comparison. The TC method is demonstrated with data from yeast cell cycle and compared with the LC method and the widely used Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC based clustering method. The biological significance of the gene pairs is examined with several large-scale yeast databases. Although the TC method predicts an overall lower number of gene pairs than the other two methods at a same p-value threshold, the additional number of gene pairs inferred by the TC method is considerable: e.g. 20.5% compared with the LC method and 49.6% with the PCC method for a p-value threshold of 2.7E-3. Moreover, the percentage of the inferred gene pairs consistent with databases by our method is generally higher than the LC method and similar to the PCC method. A significant number of the gene pairs only inferred by the TC method are process-identity or function-similarity pairs or have well-documented biological

  15. Mortality risk factors show similar trends in modern and historic populations exposed to plague.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubini, Mauro; Gualdi-Russo, Emanuela; Manzon, Vanessa S; Rinaldo, Natascia; Bianucci, Raffaella

    2016-05-31

    Plague has been responsible for two major historic pandemics (6th-8th century CE; 14th-19th century CE) and a modern one. The recent Malagasy plague outbreaks raised new concerns on the deadly potential of the plague-causing bacteria Yersinia pestis. Between September 2014 and April 2015, outbreaks of bubonic and pneumonic plague hit the Malagasy population. Two hundred and sixty-three cases, including 71 deaths, have been reported in 16 different districts with a case fatality rate of 27%. The scope of our study was to ascertain whether the risk factors for health in modern-day populations exposed to plague and in ancient populations that faced the two historic pandemics varied or remained substantially unaltered. The risk of mortality of the Malagasy population with those obtained from the reconstruction of three samples of European populations exposed to the historic pandemics was contrasted. The evidence shows that the risks of death are not uniform across age neither in modern nor in historic populations exposed to plague and shows precise concentrations in specific age groups (children between five and nine years of age and young adults). Although in the post-antibiotic era, the fatality rates have drastically reduced, both modern and historic populations were exposed to the same risk factors that are essentially represented by a low standard of environmental hygiene, poor nutrition, and weak health systems.

  16. [TRENDS IN HEALTH OF THE POPULATION IN THE AREA OF THE TENGIZ FIELD].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenessaryiev, U I; Yerzhanova, A E; Kenessary, D U; Amrin, M K; Dosmukhametov, A T; Baimukhamedov, A A

    2015-01-01

    At the present the Caspian oil and gas field became extremely important for the economy of Kazakhstan and it has entered a qualitatively new stage of its development. In connection with the intensive development of these fields the attention of both scientists and health practitioners is attracted by problems of populations' health. In the article there are presented data of a study of the quality of main objects of environment, health condition, demographic indices of and morbidity rate of the population of the Zhylyoi district of the Atyrau region. The population resides in the region of influence of the Tengiz oil and gas field. The level of mortality in Zhylyoi for the periodfrom 2006 to 2013 was establishe to decline, as birth rate rather increased. Indices of the population's structure retain the tendency to the progressive type, possibly in relation with urbanization and industrial migration of population, that increased in last years. The district mortality rates are below national, regional and urban values. Natural population growth in Zhylyoi has increased by 27.6%. The analysis of primary morbidity of the population of the Zhylyoi district in dynamics from 2006 to 2013 shows a some decrease. In the structure of the morbidity there was noted a decrease in the proportion of diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue, respiratory diseases, digestive organs. However, the proportion of blood diseases, diseases of the hematopoietic system and blood flow has increased. Alongside this in the region there is clearly discernible the scarcity of doctors, qualified nurses and beds.

  17. Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M; Yogendran, Marina S; Morin, Suzanne N; Metge, Colleen J; Majumdar, Sumit R

    2014-04-01

    Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (pobesity or osteoporosis treatment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  18. Estimating trends of population decline in long-lived marine species in the Mediterranean Sea based on fishers' perceptions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesc Maynou

    Full Text Available We conducted interviews of a representative sample of 106 retired fishers in Italy, Spain and Greece, asking specific questions about the trends they perceived in dolphin and shark abundances between 1940 and 1999 (in three 20 year periods compared to the present abundance. The large marine fauna studied were not target species of the commercial fleet segment interviewed (trawl fishery. The fishers were asked to rank the perceived abundance in each period into qualitative ordinal classes based on two indicators: frequency of sightings and frequency of catches (incidental or intentional of each taxonomic group. The statistical analysis of the survey results showed that both incidental catches and the sighting frequency of dolphins have decreased significantly over the 60+ years of the study period (except for in Greece due to the recent population increase. This shows that fishers' perceptions are in agreement with the declining population trends detected by scientists. Shark catches were also perceived to have diminished since the early 1940s for all species. Other long-lived Mediterranean marine fauna (monk seals, whales were at very low levels in the second half of the 20(th century and no quantitative data could be obtained. Our study supports the results obtained in the Mediterranean and other seas that show the rapid disappearance (over a few decades of marine fauna. We show that appropriately designed questionnaires help provide a picture of animal abundance in the past through the valuable perceptions of fishers. This information can be used to complement scientific sources or in some cases be taken as the only information source for establishing population trends in the abundance of sensitive species.

  19. Inferring the Clonal Structure of Viral Populations from Time Series Sequencing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donatien F Chedom

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available RNA virus populations will undergo processes of mutation and selection resulting in a mixed population of viral particles. High throughput sequencing of a viral population subsequently contains a mixed signal of the underlying clones. We would like to identify the underlying evolutionary structures. We utilize two sources of information to attempt this; within segment linkage information, and mutation prevalence. We demonstrate that clone haplotypes, their prevalence, and maximum parsimony reticulate evolutionary structures can be identified, although the solutions may not be unique, even for complete sets of information. This is applied to a chain of influenza infection, where we infer evolutionary structures, including reassortment, and demonstrate some of the difficulties of interpretation that arise from deep sequencing due to artifacts such as template switching during PCR amplification.

  20. Population trends and survival of nesting green sea turtles Chelonia mydas on Aves Island, Venezuela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Cruz, Marco A.; Lampo, Margarita; Peñaloza, Claudia L.; Kendall, William L.; Solé, Genaro; Rodriguez-Clark, Kathryn M.

    2015-01-01

    Long-term demographic data are valuable for assessing the effect of anthropogenic impacts on endangered species and evaluating recovery programs. Using a 2-state open robust design model, we analyzed mark-recapture data from green turtles Chelonia mydas sighted between 1979 and 2009 on Aves Island, Venezuela, a rookery heavily impacted by human activities before it was declared a wildlife refuge in 1972. Based on the encounter histories of 7689 nesting females, we estimated the abundance, annual survival, and remigration intervals for this population. Female survival varied from 0.14-0.91, with a mean of 0.79, which is low compared to survival of other populations from the Caribbean (mean = 0.84) and Australia (mean = 0.95), even though we partially corrected for tag loss, which is known to negatively bias survival estimates. This supports prior suggestions that Caribbean populations in general, and the Aves Island population in particular, may be more strongly impacted than populations elsewhere. It is likely that nesters from this rookery are extracted while foraging in remote feeding grounds where hunting still occurs. Despite its relatively low survival, the nesting population at Aves Island increased during the past 30 years from approx. 500 to >1000 nesting females in 2009. Thus, this population, like others in the Caribbean and the Atlantic, seems to be slowly recovering following protective management. Although these findings support the importance of long-term conservation programs aimed at protecting nesting grounds, they also highlight the need to extend management actions to foraging grounds where human activities may still impact green turtle populations.

  1. A global audit of the status and trends of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere goose populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmutz, Joel A.; Fox, Anthony D.; Leafloor, James O.

    2018-01-01

    This report attempts to review the abundance, status and distribution of natural wild goose populations in the northern hemisphere. The report comprises three parts that 1) summarise key findings from the study and the methodology and analysis applied; 2) contain the individual accounts for each of the 68 populations included in this report; and 3) provide the datasets compiled for this study which will be made accessible on the Arctic Biodiversity Data Service.

  2. Long Wavelength SAR Backscatter Modelling Trends as a Consequence of the Emergent Properties of Tree Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Brolly

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This study describes the novel use of a macroecological plant and forest structure model in conjunction with a Radiative Transfer (RT model to better understand interactions between microwaves and forest canopies. Trends predicted by the RT model, resulting from interactions with mixed age, mono and multi species forests, are analysed in comparison to those predicted using a simplistic structure based scattering model. This model relates backscatter to scatterer cross sectional or volume specifications, dependent on the size. The Spatially Explicit Reiterative Algorithm (SERA model is used to provide a widely varied tree size distribution while maintaining allometric consistency to produce a natural-like forest representation. The RT model is parameterised using structural information from SERA and microwave backscatter simulations are used to analyse the impact of changes to the forest stand. Results show that the slope of the saturation curve observed in the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR backscatter-biomass relationship is sensitive to thinning and therefore forest basal area. Due to similarities displayed between the results of the RT and simplistic model, it is determined that forest SAR backscatter behaviour at long microwave wavelengths may be described generally using equations related to total stem volume and basal area. The nature of these equations is such that they describe saturating behaviour of forests in the absence of attenuation in comparable fashion to the trends exhibited using the RT model. Both modelled backscatter trends predict a   relationship to forest basal area from an early age when forest volume is increasing. When this is not the case, it is assumed to be a result of attenuation of the dominant stem-ground interaction due to the presence of excessive numbers of stems. This work shows how forest growth models can be successfully incorporated into existing independent scattering models and reveals, through the RT

  3. Gorlin–Goltz syndrome: A case series of 5 patients in North Indian population with comparative analysis of literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lata, Jeevan; Verma, Nitin; Kaur, Amandeep

    2015-01-01

    Objective: In Indian scenario, Gorlin–Goltz syndrome (nevoid basal cell carcinoma syndrome [NBCCS]) has been rarely reported. The clinical, radiological, and histopathological findings and major and minor criteria in five cases of NBCCS in North Indian population have been presented along with a discussion of the role of gene mutation analysis in early diagnosis of syndrome. Materials and Methods: The diagnostic findings of Gorlin–Goltz syndrome in 5 patients were compared with other reports in Indian population and with reports of this syndrome in other parts of the world. Results: The most common features seen were keratocystic odontogenic tumors (100%), calcifications of falx cerebri (60%), palmar-plantar pits (80%), rib anomalies (80%), macroencephaly (60%), ocular hypertelorism (80%), and frontal bossing (60%) in our series. Retained deciduous teeth seen in 80% patients whose association has not been previously reported has been presented. None of our patients had basal cell carcinoma, syndactyly or polydactyly, pectus deformity, bridging of sella turcica, pigmented nevi, or family history of this syndrome in contrast to such findings in other Indian patients. Medulloblastoma has not been reported in any Indian patient so far compared to this finding in other studies conducted worldwide. Conclusions: Combining the features of 48 patients in 38 cases of NBCCS being published in Indian literature with five cases of our series and on comparison with other studies in the world, a wide disparity in different ethnic groups and a wide variation in presentation of syndrome within the same population is suggested. PMID:26604574

  4. Gorlin–Goltz syndrome: A case series of 5 patients in North Indian population with comparative analysis of literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeevan Lata

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: In Indian scenario, Gorlin–Goltz syndrome (nevoid basal cell carcinoma syndrome [NBCCS] has been rarely reported. The clinical, radiological, and histopathological findings and major and minor criteria in five cases of NBCCS in North Indian population have been presented along with a discussion of the role of gene mutation analysis in early diagnosis of syndrome. Materials and Methods: The diagnostic findings of Gorlin–Goltz syndrome in 5 patients were compared with other reports in Indian population and with reports of this syndrome in other parts of the world. Results: The most common features seen were keratocystic odontogenic tumors (100%, calcifications of falx cerebri (60%, palmar-plantar pits (80%, rib anomalies (80%, macroencephaly (60%, ocular hypertelorism (80%, and frontal bossing (60% in our series. Retained deciduous teeth seen in 80% patients whose association has not been previously reported has been presented. None of our patients had basal cell carcinoma, syndactyly or polydactyly, pectus deformity, bridging of sella turcica, pigmented nevi, or family history of this syndrome in contrast to such findings in other Indian patients. Medulloblastoma has not been reported in any Indian patient so far compared to this finding in other studies conducted worldwide. Conclusions: Combining the features of 48 patients in 38 cases of NBCCS being published in Indian literature with five cases of our series and on comparison with other studies in the world, a wide disparity in different ethnic groups and a wide variation in presentation of syndrome within the same population is suggested.

  5. Gorlin-Goltz syndrome: A case series of 5 patients in North Indian population with comparative analysis of literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lata, Jeevan; Verma, Nitin; Kaur, Amandeep

    2015-09-01

    In Indian scenario, Gorlin-Goltz syndrome (nevoid basal cell carcinoma syndrome [NBCCS]) has been rarely reported. The clinical, radiological, and histopathological findings and major and minor criteria in five cases of NBCCS in North Indian population have been presented along with a discussion of the role of gene mutation analysis in early diagnosis of syndrome. The diagnostic findings of Gorlin-Goltz syndrome in 5 patients were compared with other reports in Indian population and with reports of this syndrome in other parts of the world. The most common features seen were keratocystic odontogenic tumors (100%), calcifications of falx cerebri (60%), palmar-plantar pits (80%), rib anomalies (80%), macroencephaly (60%), ocular hypertelorism (80%), and frontal bossing (60%) in our series. Retained deciduous teeth seen in 80% patients whose association has not been previously reported has been presented. None of our patients had basal cell carcinoma, syndactyly or polydactyly, pectus deformity, bridging of sella turcica, pigmented nevi, or family history of this syndrome in contrast to such findings in other Indian patients. Medulloblastoma has not been reported in any Indian patient so far compared to this finding in other studies conducted worldwide. Combining the features of 48 patients in 38 cases of NBCCS being published in Indian literature with five cases of our series and on comparison with other studies in the world, a wide disparity in different ethnic groups and a wide variation in presentation of syndrome within the same population is suggested.

  6. Population and harvest trends of big game and small game species: a technical document supporting the USDA Forest Service Interim Update of the 2000 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis H. Flather; Michael S. Knowles; Stephen J. Brady

    2009-01-01

    This technical document supports the Forest Service's requirement to assess the status of renewable natural resources as mandated by the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA). It updates past reports on national and regional trends in population and harvest estimates for species classified as big game and small game. The trends...

  7. Trends in the utilization of dental outpatient services affected by the expansion of health care benefits in South Korea to include scaling: a 6-year interrupted time-series study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Hee-Jung; Lee, Jun Hyup; Park, Sujin; Kim, Tae-Il

    2018-02-01

    This study utilized a strong quasi-experimental design to test the hypothesis that the implementation of a policy to expand dental care services resulted in an increase in the usage of dental outpatient services. A total of 45,650,000 subjects with diagnoses of gingivitis or advanced periodontitis who received dental scaling were selected and examined, utilizing National Health Insurance claims data from July 2010 through November 2015. We performed a segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time-series to analyze the time-series trend in dental costs before and after the policy implementation, and assessed immediate changes in dental costs. After the policy change was implemented, a statistically significant 18% increase occurred in the observed total dental cost per patient, after adjustment for age, sex, and residence area. In addition, the dental costs of outpatient gingivitis treatment increased immediately by almost 47%, compared with a 15% increase in treatment costs for advanced periodontitis outpatients. This policy effect appears to be sustainable. The introduction of the new policy positively impacted the immediate and long-term outpatient utilization of dental scaling treatment in South Korea. While the policy was intended to entice patients to prevent periodontal disease, thus benefiting the insurance system, our results showed that the policy also increased treatment accessibility for potential periodontal disease patients and may improve long-term periodontal health in the South Korean population.

  8. Trends in the utilization of dental outpatient services affected by the expansion of health care benefits in South Korea to include scaling: a 6-year interrupted time-series study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Purpose This study utilized a strong quasi-experimental design to test the hypothesis that the implementation of a policy to expand dental care services resulted in an increase in the usage of dental outpatient services. Methods A total of 45,650,000 subjects with diagnoses of gingivitis or advanced periodontitis who received dental scaling were selected and examined, utilizing National Health Insurance claims data from July 2010 through November 2015. We performed a segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time-series to analyze the time-series trend in dental costs before and after the policy implementation, and assessed immediate changes in dental costs. Results After the policy change was implemented, a statistically significant 18% increase occurred in the observed total dental cost per patient, after adjustment for age, sex, and residence area. In addition, the dental costs of outpatient gingivitis treatment increased immediately by almost 47%, compared with a 15% increase in treatment costs for advanced periodontitis outpatients. This policy effect appears to be sustainable. Conclusions The introduction of the new policy positively impacted the immediate and long-term outpatient utilization of dental scaling treatment in South Korea. While the policy was intended to entice patients to prevent periodontal disease, thus benefiting the insurance system, our results showed that the policy also increased treatment accessibility for potential periodontal disease patients and may improve long-term periodontal health in the South Korean population. PMID:29535886

  9. Reef-scale trends in Florida Acropora spp. abundance and the effects of population enhancement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret W. Miller

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Since the listing of Acropora palmata and A. cervicornis under the US Endangered Species Act in 2006, increasing investments have been made in propagation of listed corals (primarily A. cervicornis, A. palmata to a much lesser extent in offshore coral nurseries and outplanting cultured fragments to reef habitats. This investment is superimposed over a spatiotemporal patchwork of ongoing disturbances (especially storms, thermal bleaching, and disease as well as the potential for natural population recovery. In 2014 and 2015, we repeated broad scale (>50 ha, low precision Acropora spp. censuses (i.e., direct observation by snorkelers documented via handheld GPS originally conducted in appropriate reef habitats during 2005–2007 to evaluate the trajectory of local populations and the effect of population enhancement. Over the decade-long study, A. palmata showed a cumulative proportional decline of 0.4 –0.7x in colony density across all sites, despite very low levels of outplanting at some sites. A. cervicornis showed similar proportional declines at sites without outplanting. In contrast, sites that received A. cervicornis outplants showed a dramatic increase in density (over 13x. Indeed, change in A. cervicornis colony density was significantly positively correlated with cumulative numbers of outplants across sites. This study documents a substantive reef-scale benefit of Acropora spp. population enhancement in the Florida Keys, when performed at adequate levels, against a backdrop of ongoing population decline.

  10. Reef-scale trends in Florida Acropora spp. abundance and the effects of population enhancement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Margaret W; Kerr, Katryna; Williams, Dana E

    2016-01-01

    Since the listing of Acropora palmata and A. cervicornis under the US Endangered Species Act in 2006, increasing investments have been made in propagation of listed corals (primarily A. cervicornis , A. palmata to a much lesser extent) in offshore coral nurseries and outplanting cultured fragments to reef habitats. This investment is superimposed over a spatiotemporal patchwork of ongoing disturbances (especially storms, thermal bleaching, and disease) as well as the potential for natural population recovery. In 2014 and 2015, we repeated broad scale (>50 ha), low precision Acropora spp. censuses (i.e., direct observation by snorkelers documented via handheld GPS) originally conducted in appropriate reef habitats during 2005-2007 to evaluate the trajectory of local populations and the effect of population enhancement. Over the decade-long study, A. palmata showed a cumulative proportional decline of 0.4 -0.7x in colony density across all sites, despite very low levels of outplanting at some sites. A. cervicornis showed similar proportional declines at sites without outplanting. In contrast, sites that received A. cervicornis outplants showed a dramatic increase in density (over 13x). Indeed, change in A. cervicornis colony density was significantly positively correlated with cumulative numbers of outplants across sites. This study documents a substantive reef-scale benefit of Acropora spp. population enhancement in the Florida Keys, when performed at adequate levels, against a backdrop of ongoing population decline.

  11. Long-Term Bird Assemblage Trends in Areas of High and Low Human Population Density

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrett, K.; Romagosa, C.M.; Williams, M.I.

    2008-01-01

    Urban areas are expanding globally, and the impact of high human population density (HHPD) on bird species richness remains unresolved. Studies primarily focus on species richness along an urban-to-rural gradient; however, some studies have analyzed larger-scale patterns and found results that contrast with those obtained at smaller scales. To move the discussion beyond static species richness patterns, we analyzed the effect of HHPD on bird assemblage dynamics (year-to-year extinction probability, turnover, changes in species richness) across the United States over a 25-year period. We found that bird assemblages in both high and low human population density areas changed significantly over the period of record. Specifically, bird assemblages increased in species richness on average. Assemblage change in areas of HHPD was not significantly different from assemblage change in areas with LHPD. These results suggest that human population density alone does not alter the persistence of avian assemblage patterns.

  12. Trends in lifestyle coronary risk factors in the Danish MONICA population 1982-1992

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerdes, Lars Ulrik; Brønnum-Hansen, H; Osler, M

    2002-01-01

    Myocardial infarction incidence rate declined 3-5% per year during 1982-1992 in the Danish study population of the WHO MONICA Project. We examined whether smoking habits, alcohol intake, dietary habits and physical activity levels changed in the population during the same period. Data from 6695 men...... in 30-, 40- and 50-y-old women, but increased 0.9% per year in 60-y-old women. The percentages of heavy cigarette smoking men and women nevertheless remained constant and close to 30%. Total alcohol intake declined among 30-y-olds, but appeared constant in other age groups. However, among 60-y-old men...

  13. Housefly population density correlates with shigellosis among children in Mirzapur, Bangladesh: a time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamer H Farag

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Shigella infections are a public health problem in developing and transitional countries because of high transmissibility, severity of clinical disease, widespread antibiotic resistance and lack of a licensed vaccine. Whereas Shigellae are known to be transmitted primarily by direct fecal-oral contact and less commonly by contaminated food and water, the role of the housefly Musca domestica as a mechanical vector of transmission is less appreciated. We sought to assess the contribution of houseflies to Shigella-associated moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD among children less than five years old in Mirzapur, Bangladesh, a site where shigellosis is hyperendemic, and to model the potential impact of a housefly control intervention. METHODS: Stool samples from 843 children presenting to Kumudini Hospital during 2009-2010 with new episodes of MSD (diarrhea accompanied by dehydration, dysentery or hospitalization were analyzed. Housefly density was measured twice weekly in six randomly selected sentinel households. Poisson time series regression was performed and autoregression-adjusted attributable fractions (AFs were calculated using the Bruzzi method, with standard errors via jackknife procedure. FINDINGS: Dramatic springtime peaks in housefly density in 2009 and 2010 were followed one to two months later by peaks of Shigella-associated MSD among toddlers and pre-school children. Poisson time series regression showed that housefly density was associated with Shigella cases at three lags (six weeks (Incidence Rate Ratio = 1.39 [95% CI: 1.23 to 1.58] for each log increase in fly count, an association that was not confounded by ambient air temperature. Autocorrelation-adjusted AF calculations showed that a housefly control intervention could have prevented approximately 37% of the Shigella cases over the study period. INTERPRETATION: Houseflies may play an important role in the seasonal transmission of Shigella in some developing

  14. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A Sawaya

    Full Text Available We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos and black bear (U. americanus populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008 and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008 in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17 and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20 using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  15. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawaya, Michael A; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Clevenger, Anthony P; Gibeau, Michael L; Kalinowski, Steven T

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  16. Ertapenem-associated neurotoxicity in the Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) population: a case series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Ursula C; Fowler, Mallory A

    2017-09-06

    Context Ertapenem, a broad spectrum carbapenem antibiotic, is used often in Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) patients due to increased risk factors for multi-drug resistant (MDR) infections in this population. Neurotoxicity, specifically seizures, due to ertapenem is a known adverse effect and has been described previously. Other manifestations such as delirium and visual hallucinations have rarely been reported, and no literature, to the best of our knowledge, specifically describes these effects solely in the SCI population. Findings Four cases of mental status changes and hallucinations in SCI patients attributed to ertapenem therapy are described. Onset of symptoms began between one and six days following initiation of ertapenem and resolved between two to 42 days following discontinuation. Based on the Naranjo probability scale, a probable relationship exists between the adverse events and ertapenem for three out of the four cases. Possible overestimation of renal function and hypoalbuminemia may be contributing factors to the noted adverse reactions. Conclusion/Clinical Relevance The cases described highlight the importance of recognizing ertapenem-associated hallucinations in SCI patients. The population is particularly vulnerable due to risk factors for MDR infections necessitating ertapenem use, possible overestimation of renal function, and a high prevalence of hypoalbuminemia.

  17. The Vegetation Trends and Drivers in Beijing-Tianjing Region from 1982 TO 2013 Based on Time Series Gimms NDVI3g

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S.; Tian, H.; Wang, X.; Li, H.; He, Y.

    2018-04-01

    Vegetation plays a leading role in ecosystems. Plant communities are the main components of ecosystems. Green plants in ecosystems are the primary producers, and they provide the living organic matter for the survival of other organisms. The dynamics of most landscapes are driven by both natural processes and human activities. In this study, the growing season GIMMS NDVI3g and climatic data were used to analyse the vegetation trends and drivers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1982 to 2013. Result shows that, the vegetation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows overall restoration and partial degradation trend. The significant restoration region accounts for 61.5 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while the significant degradation region accounts for 2.1 %. The dominant climatic factor for time series NDVI were analyzed using the multi-linear regression model. Vegetation growth in 17.9 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is dominated by temperature, 35.5 % is dominated by precipitation, and 11.68 % is dominated by solar radiance. Human activities play important role for vegetation restoration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, where the large scale forest restoration programs are the main human activities, such as the three-north shelterbelt construction project, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sandstorm source control project and grain for green projects.

  18. THE VEGETATION TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN BEIJING-TIANJING-HEIBEI REGION FROM 1982 TO 2013 BASED ON TIME SERIES GIMMS NDVI3g

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Liu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Vegetation plays a leading role in ecosystems. Plant communities are the main components of ecosystems. Green plants in ecosystems are the primary producers, and they provide the living organic matter for the survival of other organisms. The dynamics of most landscapes are driven by both natural processes and human activities. In this study, the growing season GIMMS NDVI3g and climatic data were used to analyse the vegetation trends and drivers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1982 to 2013. Result shows that, the vegetation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows overall restoration and partial degradation trend. The significant restoration region accounts for 61.5 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while the significant degradation region accounts for 2.1 %. The dominant climatic factor for time series NDVI were analyzed using the multi-linear regression model. Vegetation growth in 17.9 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is dominated by temperature, 35.5 % is dominated by precipitation, and 11.68 % is dominated by solar radiance. Human activities play important role for vegetation restoration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, where the large scale forest restoration programs are the main human activities, such as the three-north shelterbelt construction project, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sandstorm source control project and grain for green projects.

  19. A Secular Indicator Of the Degree Of Economic Development and Synthetic Evaluation Of Population Well-Being Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Săvoiu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available he specifically multidisciplinary approach employed in the present paper is motivated by the validity of Engel’s sociological laws, the usefulness of the elasticity of the population’s food products demand according to income, the statistical association between the contraction of the share of expenditures for these goods and the expansion of economy development, and the consistent assessment of the trends in population well-being, in keeping with the research of family budgets, focusing on the case of Romania in the last century. The introduction is devoted to the statistical, economic and sociological tools for assessing economic development and the trends in well-being. The first section describes the weighting coefficients in the universe of interpret indexes, and the second presents the methodology relating to a secular instrument of assessing the degree of economic development and the synthetic evaluation of the trends of well-being in Romania, in parallel to a number of maximum and minimum (European and international trends. The results presented, and the discussion caused by the statistical confrontation of that statistical, economic and sociological information, embrace, with the conclusions, the attempt made by the whole of the paper, to round up, by means of this tool, a necessary set of secular or Schumpeterian indicators, harmonized and comparable, of the GDP/capita type, or such as cost of life index, consumer price index, public and external debt, etc.; such already constructed indicators contribute to delineating the historical and macro-behavioural specificity of such an economy in Eastern Europe as that of Romania.

  20. Trends in disability of instrumental activities of daily living among older Chinese adults, 1997-2006: population based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yajun; Welmer, Anna-Karin; Möller, Jette; Qiu, Chengxuan

    2017-08-28

    Data on trends for disability in instrumental activity of daily living (IADL) are sparse in older Chinese adults. To assess trends in prevalence and incidence of IADL disability among older Chinese adults and to explore contributing factors. Population based study. 15 provinces and municipalities in China. Participants (age ≥60) were from four waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, conducted in 1997 (n=1533), 2000 (n=1581), 2004 (n=2028) and 2006 (n=2256), and from two cohorts constructed within the national survey: cohort 1997-2004 (n=712) and cohort 2000-2006 (n=823). IADL disability was defined as inability to perform one or more of the following: shopping, cooking, using transportation, financing and telephoning. Data were analysed with logistic regression and generalised estimating equation models. The prevalence of IADL disability significantly decreased from 1997 to 2006 in the total sample and in all of the subgroups by age, sex, living region and IADL items (all p trend 0.10). The recovery rate from IADL disability significantly increased over time in those aged 60-69 years (p=0.03). Living in a rural area or access to local clinics for healthcare was less disabling over time (p trend <0.02). The prevalence of IADL disability decreased among older Chinese adults during 1997-2006, whereas the incidence remained stable. The declining prevalence of IADL disability might be partly due to the decreased duration of IADL disability, and to improvements in living conditions and healthcare facilities over time. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  1. Twenty-year trends in benzodiazepine dispensing in the Australian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M M; Conigrave, K M; Day, C A; Nguyen, Y; Haber, P S

    2014-01-01

    Considerable concern has been expressed about overprescribing of benzodiazepines and related harms. Past analyses have relied on World Health Organization-defined daily doses (DDD) which are sometimes out of keeping with clinical usage. This study examines 20-year (1992-2011) trends of benzodiazepine dispensing in Australia using both DDD and Ashton equivalent dose. Data from the Drug Utilisation Sub-Committee and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) website were analysed. Trends in number of prescriptions, DDD/1000 people/day and DDD/prescription were examined over time, and between states/territories. In the 20-year period, 174 080 904 scripts were recorded, with temazepam the most dispensed benzodiazepine (35% of scripts), followed by diazepam (23%). Overall recorded utilisation fell from 27.7 DDD/1000 people/day in 1992 to 20.8 in 2011 (24.9% decrease). There were striking changes in use of individual benzodiazepines over time, with reductions in oxazepam and flunitrazepam and dramatic increases in alprazolam. Since 1998, there has been a steady increase, albeit modest, in per script DDD. The DDD/1000 people/day for items dispensed through PBS/Repatriaton-PBS was highest in Tasmania and lowest in Northern Territory. Despite a modest overall decline in the amount of benzodiazepine dispensed, the level of use is still likely to reflect relative over-prescribing given the paucity of accepted indications for long-term use. Since 1998, there was a polynomial increase in quantity dispensed per script. The WHO-defined DDD for clonazepam seems inappropriate and could impede monitoring of its abuse. Other problems include lack of national data for medications not subsidised on PBS/Repatriation PBS. A broad policy approach is required, not one which targets only one particular benzodiazepine. © 2013 The Authors; Internal Medicine Journal © 2013 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

  2. Birds protected by national legislation show improved population trends in Eastern Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Koleček, Jaroslav; Schleuning, M.; Burfield, I. J.; Báldi, A.; Böhning-Gaese, K.; Devictor, V.; Fernández-García, J. M.; Hořák, D.; Van Turnhout, C. A. M.; Hnatyna, O.; Reif, J.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 172, April (2014), s. 109-116 ISSN 0006-3207 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : Conservation effectiveness * Ecological trait * Environmental legislation * Global change * Life history strategy * Population growth rate Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 3.762, year: 2014

  3. World Population Trends: Signs of Hope, Signs of Stress. Worldwatch Paper 8.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Lester R.

    The interrelationship of population growth, food production, and death rates is explored. Birth rates in China, Western Europe, and North America have significantly decreased in the five-year period from 1970-75. This is largely due to widening availability of family planning services and the growing desire to use them. Four European countries…

  4. [Current status and trends in the health of the Moscow population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tishuk, E A; Plavunov, N F; Soboleva, N P

    1997-01-01

    Based on vast comprehensive medical statistical database, the authors analyze the health status of the population and the efficacy of public health service in Moscow. The pre-crisis tendencies and the modern status of public health under modern socioeconomic conditions are noted.

  5. Trends in selected biological risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-1992

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerdes, L U; Brønnum-Hansen, H; Madsen, Mette

    2000-01-01

    Data from 6695 men and women of ages 30, 40, 50, and 60 years, examined in the Danish WHO MONICA surveys in 1982-84, in 1986-87, and in 1991-92, were analyzed to estimate secular trends in body height and weight, blood pressure, and serum total, HDL-, and LDL-cholesterol, and triglyceride. Body...... height increased 0.1% per year, and body mass index increased 0.4% per year in women. Diastolic blood pressure increased 0.4% per year in women and 0.6% per year in 60-year-old men. HDL cholesterol declined 0.4% per year. Body mass indices in men, diastolic blood pressures in men age......, systolic blood pressures, total- and LDL cholesterol and triglyceride did not change. The levels of biological risk factors in the Danish WHO MONICA study population did not show trends during the 1980s that help explain the declining incidence of myocardial infarction in the population....

  6. [A population-targeted approach to connect prevention, care and welfare: visualising the trend].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, L C; Drewes, H W; Lette, M; Baan, C A

    2017-01-01

    To map initiatives in the Netherlands using a population-targeted approach to link prevention, care and welfare. Descriptive investigation, based on conversations and structured interviews. We searched for initiatives in which providers in the areas of prevention, care and welfare together with health insurers and/or local authorities attempted to provide the 'triple aim': improving the health of the population and the quality of care, and managing costs. We found potential initiatives on the basis of interviews with key figures, project databases and congress programmes. We looked for additional information on websites and via contact persons to gather additional information to determine whether the initiative met the inclusion criteria. An initiative should link prevention, care and welfare with a minimum of three players actively pursuing a population-targeted goal through multiple interventions for a non-disease specific and district-transcending population. We described the goal, organisational structure, parties involved, activities and funding on the basis of interviews conducted in the period August-December 2015 with the managers of the initiatives included. We found 19 initiatives which met the criteria where there was experimentation with organisational forms, levels of participation, interventions and funding. It was noticeable that the interventions mostly concerned medical care. There was a lack of insight into the 'triple aim', mostly because data exchange between parties is generally difficult. There is an increasing number of initiatives that follow a population-targeted approach. Although the different parties strive to connect the three domains, they are still searching for an optimal collaboration, organisational form, data exchange and financing.

  7. A case series of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma among Indians, a low risk population, in Perak State, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anusha, B; Philip, R; Norain, K; Harvinder, S; Gurdeep, S M

    2012-12-01

    Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is rare among people of Indian ethnicity. A short retrospective case review of clinical records of Indian patients diagnosed with nasopharyngeal carcinoma in a period of 5 years was conducted. Their slides were further subjected to EBV encoded RNA (EBER) - In- situ Hybridization (ISH). The histologic subtype was nonkeratinizing carcinoma in all 4 patients. All were Epstein Barr Virus (EBV) positive. We believe that the crucial factor responsible for nasopharyngeal carcinoma is genetics; either a genetic susceptibility among high risk groups or genetic resistance/immunity in low risk groups. Further genetic studies are required to look for somatic or inherited chromosomal mutations among the various risk populations.

  8. A time series model of the occurrence of gastric dilatation-volvulus in a population of dogs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moore George E

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV is a life-threatening condition of mammals, with increased risk in large breed dogs. The study of its etiological factors is difficult due to the variety of possible living conditions. The association between meteorological events and the occurrence of GDV has been postulated but remains unclear. This study introduces the binary time series approach to the investigation of the possible meteorological risk factors for GDV. The data collected in a population of high-risk working dogs in Texas was used. Results Minimum and maximum daily atmospheric pressure on the day of GDV event and the maximum daily atmospheric pressure on the day before the GDV event were positively associated with the probability of GDV. All of the odds/multiplicative factors of a day being GDV day were interpreted conditionally on the past GDV occurrences. There was minimal difference between the binary and Poisson general linear models. Conclusion Time series modeling provided a novel method for evaluating the association between meteorological variables and GDV in a large population of dogs. Appropriate application of this method was enhanced by a common environment for the dogs and availability of meteorological data. The potential interaction between weather changes and patient risk factors for GDV deserves further investigation.

  9. A time series model of the occurrence of gastric dilatation-volvulus in a population of dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Michael; Moore, George E

    2009-04-15

    Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition of mammals, with increased risk in large breed dogs. The study of its etiological factors is difficult due to the variety of possible living conditions. The association between meteorological events and the occurrence of GDV has been postulated but remains unclear. This study introduces the binary time series approach to the investigation of the possible meteorological risk factors for GDV. The data collected in a population of high-risk working dogs in Texas was used. Minimum and maximum daily atmospheric pressure on the day of GDV event and the maximum daily atmospheric pressure on the day before the GDV event were positively associated with the probability of GDV. All of the odds/multiplicative factors of a day being GDV day were interpreted conditionally on the past GDV occurrences. There was minimal difference between the binary and Poisson general linear models. Time series modeling provided a novel method for evaluating the association between meteorological variables and GDV in a large population of dogs. Appropriate application of this method was enhanced by a common environment for the dogs and availability of meteorological data. The potential interaction between weather changes and patient risk factors for GDV deserves further investigation.

  10. Fifty-year trends in a box turtle population in Maryland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, R.J.; Henry, P.F.P.; Bunck, C.M.

    1999-01-01

    A survey conducted in 1995 investigated long term declines reported in a population of box turtles Terrapene Carolina monitored each decade since 1945 in bottomland hardwood forest at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Maryland. Methods duplicated past surveys in most respects, but were supplemented by radiotelemetry and a survey of dominant vegetation. Seventy different turtles were found on the 11.8 ha study area, a decline of >75% since peak populations were recorded in 1955. Searchers were less efficient in 1995 than in 1945-1975 for a variety of possible reasons. Among turtles recorded, approximately equal numbers persisted from each of the past five decades, with some individuals surviving >70 years. A sex ratio strongly favoring males was first recorded in 1975 and continued in 1995, but juveniles and subadults were found in greater proportion in 1995 than in any other survey. Six of nine radio-marked turtles left the bottomland study area and migrated to the adjoining bluffs to hibernate, suggesting more extensive movements and perhaps less stable home ranges than formerly thought. Age structure of trees indicated a gradual change to more shade-tolerant species. Examination of rates of change from survey data suggested that major losses probably resulted from changes in hydrology that exacerbated flooding in 1972, with recovery only beginning in 1995 and perhaps limited both by repeated flood events and successional changes in the forest. Slow recovery from losses may indicate that populations of the species would respond poorly to exploitation.

  11. Determinants of bird conservation-action implementation and associated population trends of threatened species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luther, David A; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hayward, Matt W; Kester, Marieke E; Lamoreux, John; Upgren, Amy

    2016-12-01

    Conservation actions, such as habitat protection, attempt to halt the loss of threatened species and help their populations recover. The efficiency and the effectiveness of actions have been examined individually. However, conservation actions generally occur simultaneously, so the full suite of implemented conservation actions should be assessed. We used the conservation actions underway for all threatened and near-threatened birds of the world (International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species) to assess which biological (related to taxonomy and ecology) and anthropogenic (related to geoeconomics) factors were associated with the implementation of different classes of conservation actions. We also assessed which conservation actions were associated with population increases in the species targeted. Extinction-risk category was the strongest single predictor of the type of conservation actions implemented, followed by landmass type (continent, oceanic island, etc.) and generation length. Species targeted by invasive nonnative species control or eradication programs, ex situ conservation, international legislation, reintroduction, or education, and awareness-raising activities were more likely to have increasing populations. These results illustrate the importance of developing a predictive science of conservation actions and the relative benefits of each class of implemented conservation action for threatened and near-threatened birds worldwide. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. CURRENT TRENDS OF THE PROVISION FOR RADIATION SAFETY OF THE POPULATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. G. Onishenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available P.V.Ramzaev”The article is devoted to the actual issues ofRussian Federationpopulation radiation safety providing at the present stage. The important role of radiation-hygienic passportization is underlined in the process of the obtaining of objective information of radiation situation in the country, of population exposure doses from the all sources: artificial and natural, from the use of ionizing irradiation sources in medicine. The leading role is shown of the natural ionizing irradiation sources in the level of the country population exposure. The main directions of activities are stated aimed on the decreasing of population exposure doses from the natural sources. The brief characteristics is given of the radiation situation on the territories radioactively contaminated after the accident on the Chernobyl NPP, in the Pacific Ocean basin after the accident on the “Fukushima-1”NPP, of the main measures for radiation protection providing and for counteraction to radiation terrorism during the period of international sports and mass actions which were carried out in Russia in the last years (XXVII World Summer Universiade in2013 inKazan, XXII Olympic and XI Winter Paralympics Games in2014 inSochi. The most important tasks are defined for the improvement ofRussian Federationpopulation radiation safety at the present stage.

  13. Interventional Pain Management for Sacroiliac Tumors in the Oncologic Population: A Case Series and Paradigm Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutson, Nathan; Hung, Joseph C; Puttanniah, Vinay; Lis, Eric; Laufer, Ilya; Gulati, Amitabh

    2017-05-01

    Tumors invading the sacrum and/or ilium often represent incurable metastatic disease, and treatment is targeted toward palliation of symptoms and control of pain. As systemic opioid therapy is frequently inadequate and limited by side effects, a variety of interventional techniques are available to better optimize analgesia. Using six patients as a paradigm for interventional approaches to pain relief, we present a therapeutic algorithm for treating sacroiliac tumor-related pain in the oncologic population. We describe the use of ultrasound-guided proximal sacroiliac joint corticosteroid injection, sacroiliac lateral branch radiofrequency ablation, percutaneous sacroplasty, and implantable neuraxial drug delivery devices to treat malignant sacroiliac pain in six patients. Pre- and postprocedure numerical rating scale (NRS) pain scores, duration of pain relief, and postprocedure pain medication requirements were studied for each patient. Each patient had marked improvement in their pain based on an average postprocedure NRS difference of six points. The average duration of pain relief was eight months. In all cases, opioid requirements decreased after the intervention. Depending on tumor location, burden of disease, and patient preference, patients suffering from metastatic disease to the sacrum may find benefit from use of ultrasound-guided proximal sacroiliac joint corticosteroid injection, sacroiliac lateral branch radiofrequency ablation, percutaneous sacroplasty, dorsal column stimulator leads, and/or implantable neuraxial drug delivery devices. We provide a paradigm for treatment in this patient population. © 2016 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  14. Hallux valgus interphalangeus deformity: A case series in the pediatric population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grawe, Brian; Parikh, Shital; Crawford, Alvin; Tamai, Junichi

    2012-03-01

    The objective of this report is to describe three cases (four feet) of hallux valgus interphalangeus deformity in the pediatric population. A retrospective review was completed to identify three patients (four feet) with a deformity consistent with hallux valgus interphalangeus. Patients were followed at regular intervals for a minimum of 6 months. Treatment modalities and clinical results were reviewed for all patients for this relatively rare entity in the skeletally immature population. All patients in this report had a deformity that was not consistent with a traumatic etiology. Case number 1 had a significantly symptomatic deformity that failed conservative treatment, and eventually necessitated full surgical correction of the deformity. Symptom free unrestricted activity was obtained post-operatively, however final follow-up radiographs have demonstrated early changes consistent with arthritis. Case numbers 2 & 3 were relatively asymptomatic throughout their course of treatment, and responded well to non-operative intervention. Based on these findings excision of the exostosis and soft-tissue realignment appears to be a reliable option for symptom relief for patients who present with a painful symptomatic hallux valgus interphalangeus deformity. However, the risk of degenerative changes following spur removal must be entertained prior to the procedure. On the contrary a pain free deformity that does not impact functionality of toe, or impair shoe ware may be treated successfully with conservative measures. Copyright © 2011 European Foot and Ankle Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Population trends in substances used in deliberate self-poisoning leading to intensive care unit admissions from 2000 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskaran, Joanna; Johnson, Eric; Bolton, James M; Randall, Jason R; Mota, Natalie; Katz, Cara; Rigatto, Claudio; Skakum, Kurt; Roberts, Dan; Sareen, Jitender

    2015-12-01

    To examine population trends in serious intentional overdoses leading to admission to intensive care units (ICUs) in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. Participants consisted of 1,011 individuals presenting to any of the 11 ICUs in Winnipeg, Canada, with deliberate self-poisonings from January 2000 to December 2010. Eight categories of substances were created: poisons, over-the-counter medications, prescription medications, tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs), sedatives and antidepressants, anticonvulsants, lithium, and cocaine. Using the population of Winnipeg as the denominator, we conducted generalized linear model regression analyses using the Poisson distribution with log link to determine significance of linear trends in overdoses by substance over time. Women accounted for more presentations than men (57.8%), and the largest percentage of overdoses occurred among individuals in the 35- to 54-year age range. A large proportion of admissions were due to multiple overdoses, which accounted for 65.7% of ICU admissions. At the population level, multiple overdoses increased slightly over time (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.02, P < .05), whereas use of poisons (IRR = 0.897, P < .01), over-the-counter medications (IRR = 0.910, P < .01), nonpsychotropic prescription medications (IRR = 0.913, P < .01), anticonvulsants (IRR = 0.880, P < .01), and TCAs (IRR = 0.920, P < .01) decreased over time. Overdoses did not change over time as a function of age or sex. However, severity of overdoses classified by length of stay increased over time (IRR = 1.08, P < .01). It is important for physicians to exercise vigilance while prescribing medication, including being aware of other medications their patients have access to. © Copyright 2015 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

  16. Increasing trend of Japanese encephalitis cases in West Bengal, India - a threat to paediatric population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debjani Taraphdar

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To detect the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV as the etiologic agent from the acute encephalitis syndrome (AES cases mainly amongst the children and young adults from vaccinated and non-vaccinated districts of West Bengal. Methods: For the detection of JEV, a total of 828 sera were referred from vaccinated and non vaccinated districts of West Bengal during 2005-2011. Japanese encephalitis (JE positive cases were confirmed by ELISA and RT-PCR method. Results: Out of 828 cases, 245 samples were positive by ELISA method and 46 samples were positive by RT-PCR method. Out of 291 total positive cases, 162 (55.6% were below 20 years of age. Initially in 2005, JE cases were highest amongst the children and young adults (0-20 years. After vaccination, although the JE cases declined gradually in the vaccinated districts, but again from 2010, JE cases from the said age group showed an increasing trend from those districts. JE cases were also reported from other endemic zones of this state, which were still non-vaccinated. Conclusions: In West Bengal, JE cases are still predominated among children and young adults till the year 2011. Mass scale vaccination programme and investigation on the circulating strains are essentially required to find out the reasons of increasing tendency of JE cases in this state.

  17. Mapping long-term changes in savannah crop productivity in Senegal through trend analysis of time-series of remote sensing data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tøttrup, Christian; Rasmussen, Michael Schultz

    2004-01-01

    Remote sensing, NDVI, trend analysis, environmental change, rainfall, land cover change, Senegal......Remote sensing, NDVI, trend analysis, environmental change, rainfall, land cover change, Senegal...

  18. Status and trends of prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Desorcie, Timothy J.; Kostich, Melissa Jean; Armenio, Patricia M.; Adams, Jean V.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey Great Lakes Science Center has conducted lake-wide surveys of the fish community in Lake Michigan each fall since 1973 using standard 12-m bottom trawls towed along contour at depths of 9 to 110 m at each of seven index transects. The resulting data on relative abundance, size and age structure, and condition of individual fishes are used to estimate various population parameters that are in turn used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. All seven established index transects of the survey were completed in 2013. The survey provides relative abundance and biomass estimates between the 5-m and 114-m depth contours of the lake (herein, lake-wide) for prey fish populations, as well as burbot, yellow perch, and the introduced dreissenid mussels. Lake-wide biomass of alewives in 2013 was estimated at 29 kilotonnes (kt, 1 kt = 1000 metric tonnes), which was more than three times the 2012 estimate. However, the unusually high standard error associated with the 2013 estimate indicated no significant increase in lake-wide biomass between 2012 and 2013. Moreover, the age distribution of alewives remained truncated with no alewife exceeding an age of 5. The population of age-1 and older alewives was dominated (i.e., 88%) by the 2010 and 2012 year-classes. Record low biomass was observed for deepwater sculpin (1.3 kt) and ninespine stickleback (0.004 kt) in 2013, while bloater (1.6 kt) and rainbow smelt (0.2 kt) biomasses remained at low levels. Slimy sculpin lake-wide biomass was 0.32 kt in 2013, marking the fourth consecutive year of a decline. The 2013 biomass of round goby was estimated at 10.9 kt, which represented the peak estimate to date. Burbot lake-wide biomass (0.4 kt in 2013) has remained below 3 kt since 2001. Numeric density of age-0 yellow perch (i.e., fish per ha, which is indicative of a relatively poor year-class. Lake-wide biomass estimate of dreissenid mussels in 2013 was 23.2 kt. Overall, the total

  19. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

    2010-07-01

    An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

  20. Trends in Snag Populations in Drought-Stressed Mixed-Conifer and Ponderosa Pine Forests (1997–2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph L. Ganey

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Snags provide important biological legacies, resources for numerous species of native wildlife, and contribute to decay dynamics and ecological processes in forested ecosystems. We monitored trends in snag populations from 1997 to 2007 in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws forests, northern Arizona. Median snag density increased by 75 and 90% in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests, respectively, over this time period. Increased snag density was driven primarily by a large pulse in drought-mediated tree mortality from 2002 to 2007, following a smaller pulse from 1997 to 2002. Decay-class composition and size-class composition of snag populations changed in both forest types, and species composition changed in mixed-conifer forest. Increases in snag abundance may benefit some species of native wildlife in the short-term by providing increased foraging and nesting resources, but these increases may be unsustainable in the long term. Observed changes in snag recruitment and fall rates during the study illustrate the difficulty involved in modeling dynamics of those populations in an era of climate change and changing land management practices.

  1. Recent population size, trends, and limiting factors for the double-crested Cormorant in Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkins, Jessica Y.; Roby, Daniel D.; Lyons, Donald E.; Courtot, Karen N.; Collis, Ken; Carter, Harry R.; Shuford, W. David; Capitolo, Phillip J.

    2014-01-01

    The status of the double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) in western North America was last evaluated during 1987–2003. In the interim, concern has grown over the potential impact of predation by double-crested cormorants on juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchusspp.), particularly in the Columbia Basin and along the Pacific coast where some salmonids are listed for protection under the United States Endangered Species Act. Recent re-evaluations of double-crested cormorant management at the local, flyway, and federal level warrant further examination of the current population size and trends in western North America. We collected colony size data for the western population (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and the portions of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico west of the Continental Divide) by conducting aircraft-, boat-, or ground-based surveys and by cooperating with government agencies, universities, and non-profit organizations. In 2009, we estimated approximately 31,200 breeding pairs in the western population. We estimated that cormorant numbers in the Pacific Region (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California) increased 72% from 1987–1992 to circa 2009. Based on the best available data for this period, the average annual growth rate (λ) of the number of breeding birds in the Pacific Region was 1.03, versus 1.07 for the population east of the Continental Divide during recent decades. Most of the increase in the Pacific Region can be attributed to an increase in the size of the nesting colony on East Sand Island in the Columbia River estuary, which accounts for about 39% of all breeding pairs in the western population and is the largest known breeding colony for the species (12,087 breeding pairs estimated in 2009). In contrast, numbers of breeding pairs estimated in coastal British Columbia and Washington have declined by approximately 66% during this same period. Disturbance at breeding

  2. Monitoring Diabrotica v. virgifera (Col.: Chrysomelidae) in southeastern Slovenia: increasing population trend and host spectrum expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrichs, C; Dinnesen, S; Nedelev, T; Hummel, H E; Modic, S; Urek, G

    2008-01-01

    Ever since the western corn rootworm (WCR) (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera), an alien invasive species from North America, has been introduced into Europe on at least 3 separate occasions, it spread within 15 years over the entire area of south-eastern and central Europe (except Denmark). Until quite recently, Zea mays L. was the only known host plant whereas in North America WCR also attacks members of the plant family Cucurbitaceae. In August of 2006, we were able to validate these findings also in the Old World by observing WCR visiting blossoms of oil pumpkin (Cucurbita pepo L.). Beside this first report of WCR on this regionally and economically important crop, a population increase in Gaberje near Lendava, Eastern Slovenia, was observed. Some future consequences of multiple hosts for integrated pest management (IPM) of WCR are being discussed.

  3. Immigrant workers in the United States: recent trends, vulnerable populations, and challenges for occupational health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCauley, Linda A

    2005-07-01

    Immigrant workers are a rapidly growing segment of the U.S. work force, and these increasing numbers have resulted in a different ethnic mix in the work force than in previous decades. Immigrant workers are not a homogenous group, but are over-represented in low-paying occupations. Their diversity and vulnerability present distinct challenges for occupational health nurses. High-risk occupations in which a large proportion of immigrant workers are hired include agriculture, sweatshops, day laborers, and construction. Initiatives needed to improve the working conditions of this vulnerable population include improved surveillance and research, culturally competent care providers, improved health care access, advocacy, and changes in immigration and health policy.

  4. Testicular cancer trends as 'whistle blowers' of testicular developmental problems in populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skakkebaek, N E; Rajpert-De Meyts, Ewa; Jørgensen, N

    2007-01-01

    Recently a worldwide rise in the incidence of testicular germ cell cancer (TGCC) has been repeatedly reported. The changing disease pattern may signal that other testicular problems may also be increasing. We have reviewed recent research progress, in particular evidence gathered in the Nordic...... countries, which shows strong associations between testicular cancer, undescended testis, hypospadias, poor testicular development and function, and male infertility. These studies have led us to suggest the existence of a testicular dysgenesis syndrome (TDS), of which TGCC, undescended testis, hypospadias...... in TGCC rates of a population may be 'whistle blowers' of other reproductive health problems. As cancer registries are often of excellent quality - in contrast to registries for congenital abnormalities - health authorities should consider an increase in TGCC as a warning that other reproductive health...

  5. Childhood obesity trends from primary care electronic health records in England between 1994 and 2013: population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Jaarsveld, Cornelia H M; Gulliford, Martin C

    2015-03-01

    This study aimed to use primary care electronic health records to evaluate the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 2-15-year-old children in England and compare trends over the last two decades. Cohort study of primary care electronic health records. 375 general practices in England that contribute to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Individual participants were sampled if they were aged between 2 and 15 years during the period 1994-2013 and had one or more records of body mass index (BMI). Prevalence of overweight (including obesity) was defined as a BMI equal to or greater than the 85th centile of the 1990 UK reference population. Data were analysed for 370 544 children with 507 483 BMI records. From 1994 to 2003, the odds of overweight and obesity increased by 8.1% per year (95% CI 7.2% to 8.9%) compared with 0.4% (-0.2% to 1.1%) from 2004 to 2013. Trends were similar for boys and girls, but differed by age groups, with prevalence stabilising in 2004 to 2013 in the younger (2-10 year) but not older (11-15 year) age group, where rates continued to increase. Primary care electronic health records in England may provide a valuable resource for monitoring obesity trends. More than a third of UK children are overweight or obese, but the prevalence of overweight and obesity may have stabilised between 2004 and 2013. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  6. Declining trend in the incidence of biopsy-verified coeliac disease in the adult population of Finland, 2005-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virta, L J; Saarinen, M M; Kolho, K-L

    2017-12-01

    The frequency of coeliac disease (CD) has been on the rise over the past decades, especially in Western Europe, but current trends are unclear. To research the recent temporal changes in the incidence of adult, biopsy-verified coeliac disease and dermatitis herpetiformis (DH) in Finland, a country with a high frequency of coeliac disease. All coeliac disease and DH cases diagnosed at age 20-79 years during 2005-2014 were retrieved from a nationwide database documenting all applicants for monthly compensation to cover the extra cost of maintaining a gluten-free diet. This benefit is granted on the basis of histology, not socioeconomic status. Temporal trends in the annual incidences were estimated using Poisson regression analyses. The total incidence of coeliac disease decreased from 33/100 000 during the years 2005-2006 to 29/100 000 during 2013-2014. The mean annual incidence of coeliac disease was nearly twice as high among women as among men, 42 vs 22 per 100 000, respectively. For middle- and old-aged women, the average rate of decrease in incidence was 4.8% (95% CI 3.9-5.7) per year and for men 3.0% (1.8-4.1) (P for linear trend adults, the rate of change remained low and nonsignificant throughout the period 2005-2014. Although the awareness of coeliac disease has increased during the past decades, the incidence of biopsy-verified diagnoses is not increasing, which suggests that exposure to yet unidentified triggering factors for coeliac disease has plateaued among the Finnish adult population. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Epidemiology and trends for Caesarean section births in New South Wales, Australia: A population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morris Jonathan M

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Caesarean section (CS rates around the world have been increasing and in Australia have reached 30% of all births. Robson's Ten-Group Classification System (10-group classification provides a clinically relevant classification of CS rates that provides a useful basis for international comparisons and trend analyses. This study aimed to investigate trends in CS rates in New South Wales (NSW, including trends in the components of the 10-group classification. Methods We undertook a cross-sectional study using data from the Midwives Data Collection, a state-wide surveillance system that monitors patterns of pregnancy care, services and pregnancy outcomes in New South Wales, Australia. The study population included all women giving birth between 1st January 1998 and 31st December 2008. Descriptive statistics are presented including age-standardised CS rates, annual percentage change as well as regression analyses. Results From 1998 to 2008 the CS rate in NSW increased from 19.1 to 29.5 per 100 births. There was a significant average annual increase in primary 4.3% (95%CI 3.0-5.7% and repeat 4.8% (95% CI 3.9-5.7% CS rates from 1998 to 2008. After adjusting for maternal and pregnancy factors, the increase in CS delivery over time was maintained. When examining CS rates classified according to the 10-group classification, the greatest contributors to the overall CS rate and the largest annual increases occurred among nulliparae at term having elective CS and multipara having elective repeat CS. Conclusions Given that the increased CS rate cannot be explained by known and collected maternal or pregnancy characteristics, the increase may be related to differences in clinical decision making or maternal request. Future efforts to reduce the overall CS rate should be focussed on reducing the primary CS rate.

  8. Estimation of genetic parameters and genetic trends for weight and body measurements at birth in sheep populations in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    China Supakorn

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters and genetic trends for birth weight (BW,heart girth (HG, and body length (BL at birth of sheep populations in Thailand. Data were collected during 1998 to 2011 fromfour livestock research and testing stations. Fixed effect testing showed that sex, herd, contemporary group and breed groupgreatly influenced on the investigated traits (P<0.05. The log likelihood ratio test showed that all traits significantly affectedby maternal additive genetic effect as well as covariance between animal effects. Estimated direct heritabilities from multivariate analysis of the model for BW, HG and BL were 0.32, 0.52 and 0.54, while estimated maternal heritabilities were 0.23,0.14 and 0.14, respectively. Positive correlations were found among direct additive genetic (0.29 to 0.97, maternal additivegenetic (0.23 to 0.95, and phenotype (0.18 to 0.96. Direct-maternal correlations within traits (-0.68 for BW, -0.92 for HG and-0.89 for BL and between traits (-0.89 to -0.08 were antagonistic effect. Direct additive genetic trends for BW, HG and BL inthe second period (2005 to 2011 were significantly increased (0.02 kg/year, 0.89 and 0.73 cm/year while maternal additivegenetic trends characteristically depicted significantly decreased (-0.01 kg/year, -0.92 and -0.72 cm/year.

  9. Tetralogy of fallot (cyanotic cardiac malformation), trends and variation in a population based study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arif, A.; Zehra, S.; Qamarunnisa, S.; Azhar, A.

    2012-01-01

    Congenital heart diseases (CHDs) are a major threat worldwide for children below the age of five. It has high mortality and morbidity ratio. CHDs can be classified as cyanotic and acyanotic. Cyanotic cardiac malformation accounts 25% of all congenital heart diseases and Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) is .the most common form of cyanotic CHD. Tetralogy of Fallot is a combination of four anatomical abnormalities. These include a large ventricular septal defect (VSD), right ventricular outflow tract and pulmonary valve obstruction, right ventricular hypertrophy, and over-riding of the aorta. The current investigation was conducted over the span of 2.5 years on the patients presented in OPD and hospitalized at various pediatric cardiology centers. A detailed family history was taken to elucidate the genetic and environmental factors. Diagnosis was confirmed by the cardiologist based on examination of cardiac murmur, chest X-ray, fetal echocardiography (ECG), complete blood count (CBC), echocardiograms and/or echocardiogram (ECHO) reports, cardiac catherization reports, operative notes and MRI of heart, if applicable. This study recruited a cohort of 268 patients and 140 controls, healthy unrelated individuals. The mean age for patients was 2.97+-1.21 and that for controls was 3.14+-2.44 years. Males were shown to have a higher rate of incidence than females (1.26:1) in our population. The genes that are mainly involved are NKX 2.5, GAT A 4, TBX5, JAGI, ZFPM2 and VEGF. The present study focuses on NKX 2.5 and its mutations in our population. (author)

  10. Trends of Mental Health Status in Iranian Population Aged 15 and above between 1999 and 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noorbala, Ahmad Ali; Bagheri Yazdi, Seyed Abbas; Faghihzadeh, Soghrat; Kamali, Koorosh; Faghihzadeh, Elham; Hajebi, Ahmad; Akhondzadeh, Shahin; Esalatmanesh, Sophia; Bagheri Yazdi, HanihalSadat; Abbasinejad, Maryam; Asadi, Ali

    2017-11-01

    The main objective of this study was to compare the results of mental health surveys on adult populations of all provinces in Iran, between 1999 and 2015. This study was an overview of two cross-sectional, descriptive studies that were performed in 1999 and 2015. The study population of these two studies consisted of urban and rural residents of all provinces in Iran. Samples were recruited by systematic random cluster sampling. In both studies, the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) was used to assess mental health status of respondents. Trained psychologists completed questionnaires, and data were analyzed using SPSS software-18. The results showed that in the survey of 1999, 21% of participants suffered from mental disorders (25.9% of females and 14.9% of males). In the survey of 2015, 23.4% of samples were suspected of having mental disorders (27.6% of females and 19.3% of males). The prevalence of mental disorders increased from 1999 to 2014 by about 1.12 fold (1.06 fold in females and 1.3 fold in males). In the survey of 1999, rural residents were more at risk of mental disorders, while in the survey of 2015, urban residents were more prone to mental disorders. In both studies, the risk of suspicion for mental disorders increased with increasing age, and was higher in people aged 65 and above, as well as widowed, divorced and illiterate individuals. The results of this study showed an increase in suspected cases of mental disorders in Iran from 1999 to 2015. Therefore, it is vital for policymakers and health officials to take action in order to improve and maintain mental health status of the people who are at risk in the country.

  11. ANFIS Based Time Series Prediction Method of Bank Cash Flow Optimized by Adaptive Population Activity PSO Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie-Sheng Wang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the accuracy and real-time of all kinds of information in the cash business, and solve the problem which accuracy and stability is not high of the data linkage between cash inventory forecasting and cash management information in the commercial bank, a hybrid learning algorithm is proposed based on adaptive population activity particle swarm optimization (APAPSO algorithm combined with the least squares method (LMS to optimize the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS model parameters. Through the introduction of metric function of population diversity to ensure the diversity of population and adaptive changes in inertia weight and learning factors, the optimization ability of the particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm is improved, which avoids the premature convergence problem of the PSO algorithm. The simulation comparison experiments are carried out with BP-LMS algorithm and standard PSO-LMS by adopting real commercial banks’ cash flow data to verify the effectiveness of the proposed time series prediction of bank cash flow based on improved PSO-ANFIS optimization method. Simulation results show that the optimization speed is faster and the prediction accuracy is higher.

  12. Trends of radiation dose to the Slovak population from diagnostic nuclear medicine examinations during the period from 1985 to 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ftacnikova, S.; Ragan, P.

    1998-01-01

    A mathematical formalism was used to evaluate the radiation dose to population from radiodiagnostic procedures. Data for the calculation were obtained from questionnaires sent to the 12 Slovak hospitals which involve nuclear medicine departments. The mean effective dose for a procedure was determined by multiplying the administered radioactivity by the effective dose per unit of applied radiopharmaceutical activity; the latter value was taken from the literature. The values of the collective effective dose, total number of examinations, mean effective dose per examination and per capita and the number of examinations in 1000 inhabitants are tabulated for the 1985-1995 period. A favorable decreasing trend in the mean effective dose per examination after 1991 was observed. This was mainly due to the replacement of 131 I labelled compounds by 99m Tc radiopharmaceuticals. An overview of nuclear medicine diagnostic practice for pediatric and adult patients is also presented. The number of diagnostic procedures per 1000 inhabitants is significantly lower than in the most developed countries, and this unfavorable trend is continuing so far. (P.A.)

  13. Seasonal patterns in plankton communities in a pluriannual time series at a coastal Mediterranean site (Gulf of Naples: an attempt to discern recurrences and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ribera d'Alcalà

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available The annual cycle of plankton was studied over 14 years from 1984 to 2000 at a coastal station in the Gulf of Naples, with the aim of assessing seasonal patterns and interannual trends. Phytoplankton biomass started increasing over the water column in February-early March, and generally achieved peak values in the upper layers in late spring. Another peak was often recorded in autumn. Diatoms and phytoflagellates dominated for the largest part of the year. Ciliates showed their main peaks in phase with phytoplankton and were mainly represented by small (< 30 mm naked choreotrichs. Mesozooplankton increased in March-April, reaching maximum concentrations in summer. Copepods were always the most abundant group, followed by cladocerans in summer. At the interannual scale, a high variability and a decreasing trend were recorded over the sampling period for autotrophic biomass. Mesozooplankton biomass showed a less marked interannual variability. From 1995 onwards, phytoplankton populations increased in cell number but decreased in cell size, with intense blooms of small diatoms and undetermined coccoid species frequently observed in recent years. In spite of those interannual variations, the different phases of the annual cycle and the occurrence of several plankton species were remarkably regular.

  14. Evaluation of the Trends, Concomitant Procedures, and Complications With Open and Arthroscopic Rotator Cuff Repairs in the Medicare Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Andrew R; Cha, Peter S; Devana, Sai K; Ishmael, Chad; Di Pauli von Treuheim, Theo; D'Oro, Anthony; Wang, Jeffrey C; McAllister, David R; Petrigliano, Frank A

    2017-10-01

    Medicare insures the largest population of patients at risk for rotator cuff tears in the United States. To evaluate the trends in incidence, concomitant procedures, and complications with open and arthroscopic rotator cuff repairs in Medicare patients. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. All Medicare patients who had undergone open or arthroscopic rotator cuff repair from 2005 through 2011 were identified with a claims database. Annual incidence, concomitant procedures, and postoperative complications were compared between these 2 groups. In total, 372,109 rotator cuff repairs were analyzed. The incidence of open repairs decreased (from 6.0 to 4.3 per 10,000 patients, P rotator cuff repairs have increased in incidence and now represent the majority of rotator cuff repair surgery. Among concomitant procedures, subacromial decompression was most commonly performed despite evidence suggesting a lack of efficacy. Infections and stiffness were rare complications that were slightly but significantly more frequent in open rotator cuff repairs.

  15. Inverse but independent trends in obesity and fitness levels among Greek children: a time-series analysis from 1997 to 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambalis, Konstantinos D; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B; Psarra, Glykeria; Sidossis, Labros S

    2011-01-01

    We examined secular trends in physical fitness and BMI status in 8- to 9-year-old Greek children during an 11-year period (1997-2007). Population data derived from a yearly health survey performed in over 85% of Greek schools. Anthropometric measurements and physical fitness tests from 651,582 children were analyzed. The gender- and age-specific BMI cut-off points by the International Obesity Task Force were used to define overweight/obesity. Aerobic performance decreased by 4.9% (p Greek children during an 11-year period (1997-2007), a fact that predisposes our children to serious health risks as they grow older. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  16. Impact of national cancer policies on cancer survival trends and socioeconomic inequalities in England, 1996-2013: population based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachet, Bernard; Belot, Aurélien; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Objective To assess the effectiveness of the NHS Cancer Plan (2000) and subsequent national cancer policy initiatives in improving cancer survival and reducing socioeconomic inequalities in survival in England. Design Population based cohort study. Setting England. Population More than 3.5 million registered patients aged 15-99 with a diagnosis of one of the 24 most common primary, malignant, invasive neoplasms between 1996 and 2013. Main outcome measures Age standardised net survival estimates by cancer, sex, year, and deprivation group. These estimates were modelled using regression model with splines to explore changes in the cancer survival trends and in the socioeconomic inequalities in survival. Results One year net survival improved steadily from 1996 for 26 of 41 sex-cancer combinations studied, and only from 2001 or 2006 for four cancers. Trends in survival accelerated after 2006 for five cancers. The deprivation gap observed for all 41 sex-cancer combinations among patients with a diagnosis in 1996 persisted until 2013. However, the gap slightly decreased for six cancers among men for which one year survival was more than 65% in 1996, and for cervical and uterine cancers, for which survival was more than 75% in 1996. The deprivation gap widened notably for brain tumours in men and for lung cancer in women. Conclusions Little evidence was found of a direct impact of national cancer strategies on one year survival, and no evidence for a reduction in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival. These findings emphasise that socioeconomic inequalities in survival remain a major public health problem for a healthcare system founded on equity. PMID:29540358

  17. Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993–2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. METHODS: In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. RESULTS: We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06–3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. INTERPRETATION: Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. PMID:28923795

  18. Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993-2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A

    2017-09-18

    We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06-3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. © 2017 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

  19. Sex differences in lung cancer survival: long-term trends using population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Fukuaki Lee; Ito, Yuri; Morishima, Toshitaka; Miyashiro, Isao; Nakayama, Tomio

    2017-09-01

    Several studies of sex differences in lung cancer survival have been reported. However, large-size population-based studies based on long-term observation are scarce. We investigated long-term trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival using population-based cancer registry data from Osaka, Japan. We analyzed 79 330 cases from the Osaka Cancer Registry (OCR) diagnosed between 1975 and 2007. We calculated 5-year relative survival in the six periods (1975-1980, 1981-1986, 1987-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007). To estimate the trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival throughout the study period, we applied a multivariate excess hazard model to control for confounders. The proportion of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and 5-year relative relative survival have increased for both sexes. Sex differences in lung cancer survival have widened over the period, especially in ADC and since the late 1990s. The excess hazard ratio of death within 5 years for males was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21), adjusting for period at diagnosis, histologic type, stage, age group and treatment. We reported that females have better prognosis in lung cancer than males and the sex differences in lung cancer survival have become wider in Osaka, Japan. This can be partly explained by the sex differences in the proportions of histologic type and stage. Further studies considering other factors that influence sex differences in lung cancer survival are needed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  20. Trends in the prevalence of periodontitis in Taiwan from 1997 to 2013: A nationwide population-based retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hui-Chieh; Su, Ni-Yu; Huang, Jing-Yang; Lee, Shiuan-Shinn; Chang, Yu-Chao

    2017-11-01

    Periodontitis is one of the most prevalent oral diseases. In this study, we probed the nationwide registered database to assess the time trends of prevalence of periodontitis in Taiwan.A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the registered database compiled by the National Health Insurance provided by the Department of Health, Taiwan, from 1997 to December 2013.We found that the prevalence of periodontitis significantly increased from 11.5% in 1997 to 19.59% in 2013 (P for trend periodontitis from 1997 to 2013 was 54.46 ± 14.47 and 45.51 ± 16.58 years old, respectively. The proportion of individuals with periodontitis in age group >65 years old decreased markedly. The proportion of individuals with periodontitis in age groups periodontitis (male: RR, 67.42, 95% confidence interval [CI], 17.04-266.76; female: RR, 65.85, 95% CI, 16.70-259.70). Both male and female groups showed the similar age-effect pattern in the cross-sectional age curve from age-period-cohort model. There was an upturn with advancing age up to 40 to 50 years old and then a downward trend in both genders. Population dwelling in suburban area (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94-0.97) and rural area (RR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99) had the lower risk of periodontitis than those who lived in urban area. The higher income group revealed the higher risk of periodontitis compared with lower income group (RR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.18-1.23).The prevalence of periodontitis significantly increased in Taiwan over past 17 years. The mean age with periodontitis was shown in a decreased pattern. The use of a nationwide population-based database could provide sufficient sample size, generalizability, and statistical power to assess the periodontal status in Taiwan.

  1. The Rising Prevalence and Incidence of Gout in British Columbia, Canada: Population-Based Trends from 2000-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Sharan K.; Aviña-Zubieta, J. Antonio; McCormick, Natalie; De Vera, Mary A.; Shojania, Kam; Sayre, Eric C.; Choi, Hyon K.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Gout is increasingly recognized as the most common form of inflammatory arthritis worldwide; however, no Canadian data on the disease burden of gout are available. We estimated the prevalence, incidence, prescription patterns, and comorbidity burden of gout in an entire Canadian province (British Columbia [BC]) over the last decade. Methods We utilized PopulationData BC, a province-wide database, to estimate temporal trends in the prevalence and incidence of gout from 2000-2012, as well as according to age category. Annual estimates were age-sex-standardized using 2012 as the reference. We also examined annual trends in prescription patterns of common gout medications and assessed the comorbidity burden among gout patients in 2012. Results The 2012 prevalence of gout was 3.8% among the overall population, and the incidence rate was 2.9 per 1,000 person-years. Both gout prevalence and incidence increased substantially over the study period. This burden additionally increased according to age category, affecting over 8% of those ages 60-69 years in 2012. Approximately 22% of gout patients received a prescription for urate-lowering therapy (ULT), which remained stable over the study period, while colchicine and oral glucocorticoid use both increased modestly. By 2012, 72%, 52%, and 18% of prevalent gout patients had been diagnosed with hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes, respectively. Conclusions The burden of gout in BC, Canada, is substantial, and both the prevalence and incidence have increased over the past decade, while prescription of ULT remains low. These data support the need to improve gout prevention and care. PMID:28040245

  2. Monitoring Trends in Insecticide Resistance of Field Populations of Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) in Guizhou Province, China, 2012–2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jian-Xue; Li, Wen-Hong; Cheng, Ying; Li, Feng-Liang; Ye, Zhao-Chun

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) is a migratory insect that is one of the most important pest species on rice in many Asian countries. Control of S. furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) primarily depends on the use of chemical insecticides, and with this extensive reliance on pesticides, determining the degree of resistance of S. furcifera populations to the chemicals used for its control is essential. In this study, the resistance level to six conventional insecticides in five populations of S. furcifera from Guizhou Province was monitored yearly using the rice-stem dipping method in 2012–2015 to precisely understand current resistance levels and to estimate trends in the development of insecticide resistance in S. furcifera in Guizhou. Overall, S. furcifera from five regions in Guizhou showed a trend toward decreased susceptibility to isoprocarb (resistance ratio [RR] 0.82–3.59), susceptibility to low resistance against thiamethoxam (RR 0.27–9.69), susceptibility to moderate resistance to imidacloprid (RR 0.71–26.06), and decreased susceptibility to moderate resistance to chlorpyrifos (RR 4.63–19.58). The resistance to pymetrozine (RR 10.48–84.65) was moderate to high, and that to buprofezin (RR 6.36–412.43) was low to very high. In conclusion, the use of buprofezin and pymetrozine to control S. furcifera should be reduced in Guizhou Province, whereas prudent use at a reasonable frequency of chlorpyrifos and imidacloprid can continue. Isoprocarb and thiamethoxam are the best choices for effective management of S. furcifera. Rotations using alternative insecticides with different modes of action are recommended for regions in which resistance is at a moderate level. PMID:28334150

  3. Monitoring Trends in Insecticide Resistance of Field Populations of Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) in Guizhou Province, China, 2012-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jian-Xue; Jin, Dao-Chao; Li, Wen-Hong; Cheng, Ying; Li, Feng-Liang; Ye, Zhao-Chun

    2017-04-01

    Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) is a migratory insect that is one of the most important pest species on rice in many Asian countries. Control of S. furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) primarily depends on the use of chemical insecticides, and with this extensive reliance on pesticides, determining the degree of resistance of S. furcifera populations to the chemicals used for its control is essential. In this study, the resistance level to six conventional insecticides in five populations of S. furcifera from Guizhou Province was monitored yearly using the rice-stem dipping method in 2012-2015 to precisely understand current resistance levels and to estimate trends in the development of insecticide resistance in S. furcifera in Guizhou. Overall, S. furcifera from five regions in Guizhou showed a trend toward decreased susceptibility to isoprocarb (resistance ratio [RR] 0.82-3.59), susceptibility to low resistance against thiamethoxam (RR 0.27-9.69), susceptibility to moderate resistance to imidacloprid (RR 0.71-26.06), and decreased susceptibility to moderate resistance to chlorpyrifos (RR 4.63-19.58). The resistance to pymetrozine (RR 10.48-84.65) was moderate to high, and that to buprofezin (RR 6.36-412.43) was low to very high. In conclusion, the use of buprofezin and pymetrozine to control S. furcifera should be reduced in Guizhou Province, whereas prudent use at a reasonable frequency of chlorpyrifos and imidacloprid can continue. Isoprocarb and thiamethoxam are the best choices for effective management of S. furcifera. Rotations using alternative insecticides with different modes of action are recommended for regions in which resistance is at a moderate level. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

  4. [Prevalence trends of high risk of mental disorders in the Spanish adult population: 2006-2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basterra, Virginia

    To evaluate the prevalence of high risk of psychiatric morbidity in the Spanish adult population and its changes between 2006 and 2012. Data from 47,905 participants obtained from the National Health Surveys in 2006 and 2012 were used. Mental health status was assessed with the General Health Questionnaire score. Adjusted logistic regression models were fitted. The prevalence of high risk of psychiatric morbidity was 20.5% in 2012 and 21.3% in 2006. Using 2006 as the reference, the odds ratio (OR) for these problems in 2012 was 0.84 (0.79-0.89) in women and 1.10 (1.02-1.18) in men. In women, it decreased for all ages. In men, these ORs were 1.15 (1.04-1.27) in the aged 16-44 group, 1.23 (1.08-1.40) in the aged 45-64 group and 0.81 (0.68-0.96) in the aged ≥ 65 group. The prevalence of high risk of psychiatric morbidity decreased except in males <65 years of age, who are more sensitive to the economic crisis. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  5. Population trends and public awareness of healthy and pathological ageing in India: A brief overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loganathan, Santosh; Iyengar, Vijeth; Chowdappa, Suresh Vedalaveni; Varghese, Mathew

    2017-10-01

    India is poised to experience dramatic shifts in the age and makeup of its population. Specifically, projections havehighlighted an increase in both the percentage of the elderly and those suffering from dementia-related disorders.Previous studies have examined the demographics of aging, its impact on the healthcare infrastructure and recommended policies to better cater to the elderly. This article focuses on a summary of these findings in relation to key stakeholders in the care of the elderly including mental health professionals, family caregivers, and public health officials. We broadly conclude that there exists a general shallow level of understanding of what constitutes pathological aging (i.e. dementia) across all stakeholders, and this creates a cascade of effects including delays in treatment seeking and barriers in conducting and having accurate demographic studies. Moreover, addressing this knowledge gap can help enhance communication between these three stakeholders in the hopes of the following: (a) increased education and awareness, (b) faster seeking of care, and (c) earlier diagnoses leading to better opportunities to collect accurate demographics of those suffering from dementia-related disorders. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Population dynamics of the species Plantago major L. and Poa annua L. in a replacement series experiment

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    Mijović A.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Population dynamics of the species Plantago major L. and Poa annua L., typical representatives of ruderal vegetation, was analyzed in a replacement series experiment. The analyzed species were sown in an area with meadow vegetation, where the vegetation present had been previously removed by a total herbicide and additionally by hoeing. The objective of the experiment was to monitor growth dynamics and the effect of intra- and inter-specific interaction of the species Plantago major and Poa annua in conditions of different sowing densities and proportions. The effects of intra- and inter-specific interference and the density-dependent responses were assessed on the basis of several parameters (natality, mortality, age structure, and measures of ontogenetic changes. Based on the study results, it can be concluded that the responses of the species in the experiment were different, which is explained by different adaptive mechanisms, i.e., strategies, in the specific environmental conditions. An effect of the density dependent response was present in both species in the replacement series experiment. The response was amplified by water deficit caused by intensive evapora­tion of the bare soil. No effect of inter-specific interference was observed at the given densities of the study species on the sample plots. An effect of intra-specific interference of the species Plantago major and Poa annua was observed in the guise of a density-negative response of the rate of ontogenetic changes and fecundity.

  7. Trends in Prevalence, Awareness, Treatment and Control of Hypertension during 2001-2010 in an Urban Elderly Population of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Lei; He, Yao; Jiang, Bin; Sun, Dongling; Wang, Jianhua; Liu, Miao; Yang, Shanshan; Wang, Yiyan

    2015-01-01

    As the most important risk factors of cardiovascular disease, pre-hypertension and hypertension are important public health challenges. Few studies have focused on the trends of pre-hypertension and hypertension specifically for the aging population in China. Given the anticipated growth of the elderly population in China, there is an urgent need to document the conditions of pre-hypertension and hypertension in this aging population. We conducted two cross-sectional surveys of Chinese adults aged ≥60 years in 2001 and 2010. A total of 2,272 (943 males, 1,329 females) and 2,074 (839 males, 1,235 females) participants were included in the two surveys, respectively. The age- and sex-standardized prevalence of hypertension significantly increased from 60.1% to 65.2% from the 2001 to the 2010 survey. Among the participants with hypertension, the awareness, treatment and control of hypertension all significantly increased from 69.8% to 74.5%, 50.3% to 63.7%, and 15.3% to 30.3%, respectively, from 2001 to 2010. A logistic regression showed that a higher education level, a higher BMI, a family history of hypertension and doctor-diagnosed cardiovascular disease were significantly associated with hypertension awareness and treatment. Hypertension prevalence increased rapidly between the years surveyed. Although the awareness, treatment and control of hypertension improved significantly, the values of these variables remained low. More attention should be given to the elderly because the population is aging worldwide, and urgent action, optimal treatment approaches and proper public health strategies must be taken to prevent and manage hypertension.

  8. Who is using snus? - Time trends, socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in the ageing Swedish population

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    Norberg Margareta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevalence of smoking in Sweden has decreased in recent decades, and is now among the lowest in the world. During the same period, the use of Swedish moist oral snuff, a smokeless tobacco called snus, has increased. Few studies have evaluated time trends of the socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in Sweden. This paper contributes to filling that gap. Methods This study utilized the Linnaeus Database, which links national registers with comprehensive individual data on socioeconomic status (SES to health data from a large ongoing health survey, the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP. The VIP targets the entire middle-aged population of Västerbotten county at ages 40, 50 and 60 years with yearly cross-sectional surveys including self-reported data on tobacco habits. Time trends of snus use among 92,563 VIP-participants across different areas of residence and smoking groups were investigated graphically. Logistic regression was performed to estimate the associations between SES and geographical variables and current use versus non-use of snus. Results Overall, in parallel to decreasing smoking, the increasing trend of snus use in this middle-aged population continues, particularly in 40-year-olds. In both genders, the highest prevalence of snus use was observed among previous smokers. The prevalence of snus use also increased over time among smokers, and was consistently higher compared to those who had never smoked. Among males - both those who had never smoked and previous smokers - low education (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.06-1.40 and OR 1.28, 95%CI 1.14-1.43, living alone (OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.07-1.27 and OR 1.13, 95%ci 1.04-1.23, low income and living in rural areas was associated with using snus, while this was not seen among male current smokers. Among women, living alone was associated with using snus irrespective of smoking habits. Among female smokers, the OR for snus use increased with higher

  9. An estimation model of population in China using time series DMSP night-time satellite imagery from 2002-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoyong; Zhang, Zhijie; Chang, Yuguang; Chen, Zhengchao

    2015-12-01

    Accurate data on the spatial distribution and potential growth estimation of human population are playing pivotal role in addressing and mitigating heavy lose caused by earthquake. Traditional demographic data is limited in its spatial resolution and is extremely hard to update. With the accessibility of massive DMSP/OLS night time imagery, it is possible to model population distribution at the county level across China. In order to compare and improve the continuity and consistency of time-series DMSP night-time satellite imagery obtained by different satellites in same year or different years by the same satellite from 2002-2010, normalized method was deployed for the inter-correction among imageries. And we referred to the reference F162007 Jixi city, whose social-economic has been relatively stable. Through binomial model, with average R2 0.90, then derived the correction factor of each year. The normalization obviously improved consistency comparing to previous data, which enhanced the correspondent accuracy of model. Then conducted the model of population density between average night-time light intensity in eight-economic districts. According to the two parameters variation law of consecutive years, established the prediction model of next following years with R2of slope and constant typically 0.85 to 0.95 in different regions. To validate the model, taking the year of 2005 as example, retrieved quantitatively population distribution in per square kilometer based on the model, then compared the results to the statistical data based on census, the difference of the result is acceptable. In summary, the estimation model facilitates the quick estimation and prediction in relieving the damage to people, which is significant in decision-making.

  10. Trends in diet quality among adolescents, adults and older adults: A population-based study

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    Samantha Caesar de Andrade, PhD

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to monitor diet quality and associated factors in adolescents, adults and older adults from the city of São Paulo, Brazil. We conducted a cross-sectional population-based study involving 2376 individuals surveyed in 2003, and 1662 individuals in 2008 (Health Survey of São Paulo, ISA-Capital. Participants were of both sexes and aged 12 to 19 years old (adolescents, 20 to 59 years old (adults and 60 years old or over (older adults. Food intake was assessed using the 24-h dietary recall method while diet quality was determined by the Brazilian Healthy Eating Index (BHEI-R. The prevalence of descriptive variables for 2003 and 2008 was compared adopting a confidence interval of 95%. The means of total BHEI-R score and its components for 2003 and 2008 were compared for each age group. Associations between the BHEI-R and independent variables were evaluated for each survey year using multiple linear regression analysis. Results showed that the mean BHEI-R increased (54.9 vs. 56.4 points over the five-year period. However, the age group evaluation showed a deterioration in diet quality of adolescents, influenced by a decrease in scores for dark-green and orange vegetables and legumes, total grains, oils and SoFAAS (solid fat, alcohol and added sugar components. In the 2008 survey, adults had a higher BHEI-R score, by 6.1 points on average, compared to adolescents. Compared to older adults, this difference was 10.7 points. The diet quality remains a concern, especially among adolescents, that had the worst results compared to the other age groups.

  11. Trends in traumatic brain injury mortality in China, 2006-2013: A population-based longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Peixia; Yin, Peng; Ning, Peishan; Wang, Lijun; Cheng, Xunjie; Liu, Yunning; Schwebel, David C; Liu, Jiangmei; Qi, Jinlei; Hu, Guoqing; Zhou, Maigeng

    2017-07-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a significant global public health problem, but has received minimal attention from researchers and policy-makers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Epidemiological evidence of TBI morbidity and mortality is absent at the national level for most LMICs, including China. Using data from China's Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) system, we conducted a population-based longitudinal analysis to examine TBI mortality, and mortality differences by sex, age group, location (urban/rural), and external cause of injury, from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2013 in China. Mortality data came from the national DSPs system of China, which has coded deaths using the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10) since 2004. Crude and age-standardized mortality with 95% CIs were estimated using the census population in 2010 as a reference population. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to examine the significance of trends in mortality from 2006 to 2013. Negative binomial models were used to examine the associations of TBI mortality with location, sex, and age group. Subgroup analysis was performed by external cause of TBI. We found the following: (1) Age-adjusted TBI mortality increased from 13.23 per 100,000 population in 2006 to 17.06 per 100,000 population in 2008 and then began to fall slightly. In 2013, age-adjusted TBI mortality was 12.99 per 100,000 population (SE = 0.13). (2) Compared to females and urban residents, males and rural residents had higher TBI mortality risk, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 2.57 and 1.71, respectively. TBI mortality increased substantially with older age. (3) Motor vehicle crashes and falls were the 2 leading causes of TBI mortality between 2006 and 2013. TBI deaths from motor vehicle crashes in children aged 0-14 years and adults aged 65 years and older were most often in pedestrians, and motorcyclists were the first or second leading category of road user for the other

  12. Trends in traumatic brain injury mortality in China, 2006-2013: A population-based longitudinal study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peixia Cheng

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Traumatic brain injury (TBI is a significant global public health problem, but has received minimal attention from researchers and policy-makers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs. Epidemiological evidence of TBI morbidity and mortality is absent at the national level for most LMICs, including China. Using data from China's Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs system, we conducted a population-based longitudinal analysis to examine TBI mortality, and mortality differences by sex, age group, location (urban/rural, and external cause of injury, from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2013 in China.Mortality data came from the national DSPs system of China, which has coded deaths using the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10 since 2004. Crude and age-standardized mortality with 95% CIs were estimated using the census population in 2010 as a reference population. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to examine the significance of trends in mortality from 2006 to 2013. Negative binomial models were used to examine the associations of TBI mortality with location, sex, and age group. Subgroup analysis was performed by external cause of TBI. We found the following: (1 Age-adjusted TBI mortality increased from 13.23 per 100,000 population in 2006 to 17.06 per 100,000 population in 2008 and then began to fall slightly. In 2013, age-adjusted TBI mortality was 12.99 per 100,000 population (SE = 0.13. (2 Compared to females and urban residents, males and rural residents had higher TBI mortality risk, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 2.57 and 1.71, respectively. TBI mortality increased substantially with older age. (3 Motor vehicle crashes and falls were the 2 leading causes of TBI mortality between 2006 and 2013. TBI deaths from motor vehicle crashes in children aged 0-14 years and adults aged 65 years and older were most often in pedestrians, and motorcyclists were the first or second leading category of road user for

  13. Quantifying temporal trends in fisheries abundance using Bayesian dynamic linear models: A case study of riverine Smallmouth Bass populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schall, Megan K.; Blazer, Vicki S.; Lorantas, Robert M.; Smith, Geoffrey; Mullican, John E.; Keplinger, Brandon J.; Wagner, Tyler

    2018-01-01

    Detecting temporal changes in fish abundance is an essential component of fisheries management. Because of the need to understand short‐term and nonlinear changes in fish abundance, traditional linear models may not provide adequate information for management decisions. This study highlights the utility of Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) as a tool for quantifying temporal dynamics in fish abundance. To achieve this goal, we quantified temporal trends of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu catch per effort (CPE) from rivers in the mid‐Atlantic states, and we calculated annual probabilities of decline from the posterior distributions of annual rates of change in CPE. We were interested in annual declines because of recent concerns about fish health in portions of the study area. In general, periods of decline were greatest within the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. The declines in CPE began in the late 1990s—prior to observations of fish health problems—and began to stabilize toward the end of the time series (2011). In contrast, many of the other rivers investigated did not have the same magnitude or duration of decline in CPE. Bayesian DLMs provide information about annual changes in abundance that can inform management and are easily communicated with managers and stakeholders.

  14. Trend analysis of hospital resource utilization for prolonged mechanical ventilation patients in Taiwan: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Tien-Chiung; Lai, Yung-Fa; Tseng, Ching-Wan; Hong, Yong-Han; Shi, Hon-Yi

    2013-04-01

    The aging Taiwan population is expected to require vast medical resources, including prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV). This study determined the trends in hospital resource utilization and associated factors in PMV patients in Taiwan. All patients who had received mechanical ventilation for > 21 days (International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes 518.81-518.89) during 2004-2007 were recruited to the study. Administrative claims data obtained from the Bureau of National Health Insurance of Taiwan were analyzed. The study analyzed 65,181 patients who had received PMV during 2004-2007. The number of PMVs per 100,000 persons was 94.30 in 2004, and it gradually decreased to 89.38 in 2007, which was a change rate of -5.22%. During the study period, stay significantly decreased, from 35.12 days to 31.61 days, whereas hospital treatment costs significantly increased, from $7,933.17 to $8,257.52 (P providers and patients should recognize that attributes of both the patient and the hospital may affect hospital resource utilization. Additionally, these analytical results should be applicable to similar populations in other countries.

  15. Evaluating the Relationship between the Population Trends, Prices, Heat Waves, and the Demands of Energy Consumption in Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine S. Fu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The demands of energy consumption have been projected as a key factor that affects an economy at the city, national, and international level. Contributions to total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2012 by various urban sectors include electricity (31%, transportation (28%, industry (20%, agriculture (10%, and commercial and residential (10%. Yet the heavy demands of energy consumption in the cities by residents, commercial businesses, industries, and transportation are important for maintaining and sustaining sufficient economic growth. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between population trends, historical energy consumptions, the changes of average electricity price, average annual temperature, and extreme weather events for three selected cities: New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. These cities are exemplary of, metropolitan areas in the East, Middle, and the Western regions of the U.S. We find that the total energy consumptions of New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles are influenced to various degrees by changes in population, temperature and the average price of electricity and that only one city, Los Angeles, does price significantly affect electricity use. This finding has implications for policy making, suggesting that each city’s climate, size and general economic priorities must be considered in developing climate change mitigation strategies and incentives.

  16. Assessing Genetic Literacy Awareness and Knowledge Gaps in the US Population: Results from the Health Information National Trends Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krakow, Melinda; Ratcliff, Chelsea L; Hesse, Bradford W; Greenberg-Worisek, Alexandra J

    2018-05-31

    Public understanding of the role of genetics in disease risk is key to appropriate disease prevention and detection. This study assessed the current extent of awareness and use of genetic testing in the US population. Additionally, the study identified characteristics of subgroups more likely to be at risk for low genetic literacy. The study used data from the National Cancer Institute's 2017 Health Information National Trends Survey, including measures of genetic testing awareness, genetic testing applications and genetic testing usage. Multivariable logistic regression models estimated associations between sociodemographics, genetic testing awareness, and genetic testing use. Fifty-seven percent of respondents were aware of genetic tests. Testing awareness differed by age, household income, and race/ethnicity. Most participants had heard of using tests to determine personal disease risk (82.58%) or inherited disease risk in children (81.41%), but less were familiar with determining treatment (38.29%) or drug efficacy (40.76%). Among those with genetic testing awareness, actual testing uptake was low. A large portion of the general public lacks genetic testing awareness and may benefit from educational campaigns. As precision medicine expands, increasing public awareness about genetic testing applications for disease prevention and treatment will be important to support population health. This is a work of the US Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. Foreign copyrights may apply. Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

  17. Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M Maniscalco

    Full Text Available Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

  18. Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniscalco, John M; Springer, Alan M; Adkison, Milo D; Parker, Pamela

    2015-01-01

    Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

  19. Prevalence and time trends in diabetes and physical inactivity among adult West African populations: the epidemic has arrived.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakari, A R; Lauder, W; Jones, M C; Kirk, A; Agyemang, C; Bhopal, R S

    2009-09-01

    To determine the prevalence and distribution of, and trends in, physical inactivity and diabetes in adult West African populations. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Literature searches were conducted using four electronic databases. Journal hand searches and examination of citations of relevant articles were also undertaken. To be included, studies had to be population based, use clearly defined criteria for measuring diabetes and physical inactivity, present data that allowed calculation of the prevalence of diabetes or physical inactivity, and sample adult participants. Studies retrieved were appraised critically. Meta-analysis was performed using the DerSimonian-Laird random effect model. Twenty-one reports were retrieved for diabetes and 15 reports were retrieved for physical in/activity. Most studies (10 for diabetes and six for physical activity) were conducted solely among urban populations. The prevalence of diabetes in West Africa was approximately 4.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-9.0] in urban adults and 2.6% (95%CI 1.5-4.4) in rural adults, and was similar in men and women [prevalence ratio (PR) 1.36, 95%CI 0.96-1.92]. Cumulative time trend analyses suggested an increase in the prevalence of diabetes among adults in urban West Africa, from approximately 3.0% (95%CI 1.0-7.0) to 4.0% (95%CI 2.0-9.0) in the past 10 years. The prevalence of inactivity in West Africa was 13% (95%CI 9.0-18.0). An association was found between physical inactivity and being older (> or = 50 years) (PR 1.82, 95%CI 1.36-2.44), female gender (PR 1.62, 95%CI 1.41-1.87) and urban residence (PR 2.04, 95%CI 1.58-2.63). Diabetes and physical inactivity are important public health issues in urban West Africa, with similar prevalences to wealthy industrialized countries. There is an urgent need for policy makers, politicians and health promotion experts to put measures in place to encourage active lifestyles and control diabetes in urban West Africa.

  20. Secular trends in age at menarche among Caboclo populations from Pará, Amazonia, Brazil: 1930-1980.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, H P; Padez, C

    2006-01-01

    The present study is part of a large research project on growth, development, nutrition, and health of Caboclo populations from the Brazilian Amazon. The aim of this paper is to analyze the age of menarche in adolescents (N=164) and adult women (219) in the studied populations. Caboclo are admixed rural, peasant groups that live along the Amazon river and its tributaries, and there are few previous studies about them. Probit analysis of the status quo data yielded a median age at menarche of 12.29+/-1.76 years. The retrospective method was applied to recall data of the 77 post-menarcheal adolescents, yielding an average of 13.06+/-1.27 years. Number of children in the family did not show any statistical influence on age at menarche in any age group. In adult women, age at menarche decreased from 14.50 in those born in 1930 to 12.88 for those born in 1980 (F=4.371, P=0.001). The downward trend found was, on average, 0.237 year per decade in the study period. The median age at menarche in the adolescents (12.29 years) is one of the lowest values found for Central and South American populations. In the ecological context, a low age at menarche could be an adaptive advantage because it provides a greater chance for reproduction at a young age in an environment where, until recently, life expectancy was low. As has been reported for other developing countries, the change found in age at menarche in the women born from the 1930s to the 1980s is likely to be related to changes in health and nutritional factors that occurred in Brazil because this country experienced significant improvement in living standards related to education, vaccination, and health conditions, which, although not equally, reached all regions after the 1960s. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 18:83-92, 2006. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  1. Trend analysis and outcome prediction in mechanically ventilated patients: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Jang Lee

    Full Text Available To investigate the relationship between changes in patient attributes and hospital attributes over time and to explore predictors of medical utilization and mortality rates in mechanical ventilation (MV patients in Taiwan.Providing effective medical care for MV patients is challenging and requires good planning and effective clinical decision making policies. Most studies of MV, however, have only analyzed a single regional ventilator weaning center or respiratory care unit, high-quality population-based studies of MV trends and outcomes are scarce.This population-based cohort study retrospectively analyzed 213,945 MV patients treated during 2004-2009.During the study period, the percentages of MV patients with the following characteristics significantly increased: age ≦ 65 years, treatment at a medical center, and treatment by a high-volume physician. In contrast, the percentages of MV patients treated at local hospitals and by low-volume physicians significantly decreased (P<0.001. Age, gender, Deyo-Charlson co-morbidity index, teaching hospital, hospital level, hospital volume, and physician volume were significantly associated with MV outcome (P<0.001. Over the 6-year period analyzed in this study, the estimated mean hospital treatment cost increased 48.8% whereas mean length of stay decreased 13.9%. The estimated mean overall survival time for MV patients was 16.4 months (SD 0.4 months, and the overall in-hospital 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 61.0%, 36.7%, 17.3%, and 9.6%, respectively.These population-based data revealed increases in the percentages of MV patients treated at medical centers and by high-volume physicians, especially in younger patients. Notably, although LOS for MV patients decreased, hospital treatment costs increased. Healthcare providers and patients should recognize that attributes of both the patient and the hospital may affect outcomes.

  2. Trends in leisure time and work-related physical activity in the Spanish working population, 1987-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Blanco, Cristina; Palacios-Ceña, Domingo; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Carrasco-Garrido, Pilar; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Fernández-de-Las-Peñas, César

    2012-01-01

    To analyze time trends in the prevalence of leisure time (LTPA) and work-related (WRPA) physical activity between 1987 and 2006 in the Spanish working population. We analyzed data taken from the Spanish National Health Surveys for 1987 (n = 29,647), 1993 (n = 20,707), 1995-1997 (n = 12,800), 2001 (n = 21,058), 2003 (n = 21,650), and 2006 (n = 29,478). The main variables were LTPA and WRPA in working adults aged 18-64 years old. We analyzed sociodemographic characteristics, self-perceived health status, lifestyle habits and associated comorbidities using multivariate logistic regression models. The prevalences of LTPA and WRPA were lower in women than in men (p women; OR = 1.15, 95%CI: 1.02-1.31 for men) and WRPA (OR = 1.73, 95%CI: 1.38-2.19 for women; OR = 1.55, 95%CI: 1.44-1.91 for men) significantly increased from 1987 to 2006. In both genders, the variables associated with a higher likelihood of practicing LTPA were greater age, higher educational level and being an ex- or non-smoker, while negative predictors included being married, worse self-perceived health, and obesity. Factors that increased the probability of reporting WRPA were being married, worse self-rated health status, and sleeping > 8h per day. The only factor that reduced the probability of reporting WRPA was being an ex- or non-smoker. We found an increase in LTPA and WRPA in the last 20 years in the Spanish working population. Several factors were associated with a higher or lower likelihood of practicing LTPA or WRPA in this population. Copyright © 2011 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  3. Trends in the use and cost of human and analogue insulins in a Colombian population, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, D R; Portilla, A; Machado-Duque, M E; Machado-Alba, J E

    2017-12-01

    Diabetes mellitus is a common disease among the general population and imposes considerable costs on health care systems. Insulin is used to treat type 1 diabetes mellitus and as an adjuvant to oral agents in advanced stages of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The objective was to describe the trends in use and cost of human and analogue insulins for Colombian patients. Descriptive retrospective analysis of prescriptions of human and analogue insulins on a monthly basis for the period from July 1, 2011 to February 2, 2015. Information was collected for the database population of two insurance companies. Frequencies and proportions were calculated; estimated economic impact was expressed as net cost and cost per thousand inhabitants per day. During the observation period, there was continuous growth in use of insulin, mainly in analogue forms (34.0% growth). At the start of the study, 10.4% of subjects were using an analogue insulin; this figure was 62.6% at the end of the study. In 2012, the average cost per 1000 inhabitants/day was US$1.7 for analogue and US$0.8 for human insulins. At the end of the observation period these costs had risen to US$9.2 for analogue (441.1% increase) and fallen to US$0.5 for human insulin (58.3% decrease). There has been an increase in the unit cost and frequency of use of insulin analogues for anti-diabetic therapy in Colombian patients. Moreover, there is controversy over whether insulin analogues are a more cost-effective treatment than human insulins for the general diabetic population. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Impact of national cancer policies on cancer survival trends and socioeconomic inequalities in England, 1996-2013: population based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exarchakou, Aimilia; Rachet, Bernard; Belot, Aurélien; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P

    2018-03-14

    To assess the effectiveness of the NHS Cancer Plan (2000) and subsequent national cancer policy initiatives in improving cancer survival and reducing socioeconomic inequalities in survival in England. Population based cohort study. England. More than 3.5 million registered patients aged 15-99 with a diagnosis of one of the 24 most common primary, malignant, invasive neoplasms between 1996 and 2013. Age standardised net survival estimates by cancer, sex, year, and deprivation group. These estimates were modelled using regression model with splines to explore changes in the cancer survival trends and in the socioeconomic inequalities in survival. One year net survival improved steadily from 1996 for 26 of 41 sex-cancer combinations studied, and only from 2001 or 2006 for four cancers. Trends in survival accelerated after 2006 for five cancers. The deprivation gap observed for all 41 sex-cancer combinations among patients with a diagnosis in 1996 persisted until 2013. However, the gap slightly decreased for six cancers among men for which one year survival was more than 65% in 1996, and for cervical and uterine cancers, for which survival was more than 75% in 1996. The deprivation gap widened notably for brain tumours in men and for lung cancer in women. Little evidence was found of a direct impact of national cancer strategies on one year survival, and no evidence for a reduction in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival. These findings emphasise that socioeconomic inequalities in survival remain a major public health problem for a healthcare system founded on equity. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  5. Trends in dietary patterns of Latin American populations Tendencias en el consumo de alimentos en poblaciones latinoamericanas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odilia I. Bermudez

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available It is important to characterize the level and magnitude of changes in food consumption patterns in Latin American populations as they undergo demographic and developmental transitions because of the effects of such changes on the development and progression of chronic diseases. This paper examines trends in food intake across regions in Latin America. Although trends in apparent food consumption differ in magnitude and timing, the overall patterns of change are remarkably consistent. Intakes of total fat, animal products, and sugar are increasing, even while there have been rapid declines in the intake of cereals, fruit, and some vegetables. The costs of the increased prevalence of chronic disease associated with these dietary changes are already affecting health systems still coping with malnutrition and infectious disease. Because this pattern of change is predictable, it is important to learn from the experiences gained in countries that are more advanced in the transition. Efforts to educate the population on the importance of a healthy diet and to issue policies to improve the availability of a healthy food supply can help to reduce the rapid escalation of obesity and chronic diseases.A la vez que las poblaciones latinoamericanas atraviesan por sus transiciones demográficas y de desarrollo, es importante caracterizar las dimensiones de los cambios que se producen simultáneamente en los patrones de consumo de alimentos de estas poblaciones. Este trabajo examina las tendencias en consumo de alimentos en América Latina, aunque estas tendencias se diferencian en tiempo de ocurrencia y magnitud, los patrones globales son muy consistentes. El consumo de grasas totales, productos animales y azúcares está en aumento y al mismo tiempo se está disminuyendo la ingesta de cereales, frutas y algunos vegetales. Los costos de la creciente prevalencia de enfermedades crónicas asociadas con estos cambios en el consumo están afectando a los sistemas

  6. Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

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    Carolyn B Meyer

    Full Text Available Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix, common buzzard (Buteo buteo, and red kite (Milvus milvus. We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4-16% of mortality, depending on species and poisons (4-46% of mortality reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe, stable for buzzard (in Germany, and increasing for red kite (in Wales. Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%. The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently

  7. Mortality Reduction, Fertility Decline, and Population Growth: Toward a More Relevant Assessment of the Relationships among Them. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 686 and Population and Development Series No. 11.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwatkin, Davidson

    One of a special series on population change and development, this paper focuses primarily on the programs and policies responsible for mortality or fertility change, rather than on the growth impact of a mortality or fertility change per se. The first portion of the document examines three models for assessing the population growth implications…

  8. Tobacco price increases and population interest in smoking cessation in Japan between 2004 and 2016: a Google Trends analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabuchi, Takahiro; Fukui, Keisuke; Gallus, Silvano

    2018-01-31

    Tobacco price increases can generate increased public interest in smoking cessation, but it is not clear how long this interest lasts. Our objective was to evaluate the duration of the impact of cigarette price increase in Japan using Google search data. Monthly or daily aggregated Google search volume for smoking cessation in Japan from 2004 to 2016 was collected in terms of relative search volume (RSV) ranging from 0-100. Using monthly RSV data, we evaluated possible relationships between the RSVs and tobacco control measures in Japan. Time periods within which the impact of search volume significantly increased were identified by cluster detection test, using daily RSV data. A spike in RSV preceding the enforcement of a cigarette price increase revealed an anticipation effect. Between 2004 and 2016 the three highest monthly RSV spikes were observed in July 2006 (RSV=66), when cigarette prices increased by 11%, and in September (RSV=90) and October 2010 (RSV=100), when cigarette prices increased by 37%. Regarding daily RSV, the detected cluster size around the price increase in 2010 (52 days) was longer than that in 2006 (17 days). In 2010, a cluster period of 25 days before the date of the price increase was observed, suggesting an anticipation effect. After the onset of the price increase, a cluster of 27 days was detected. When the cigarette price increased due to consumption tax in April 2014, almost no anticipation effect was observed. The population impact of tobacco price increases on smoking cessation may be assessed using Google Trends data. The cluster indicates that a higher cigarette price increase had a higher and longer-lasting effect on population interest in cessation, but the impact may continue for a relatively short time. To examine the duration of the impact of cigarette price increases on population interest in smoking cessation in Japan, Google search data for smoking cessation was analyzed. Between 2004 and 2016 the three highest spikes of

  9. The impact of OSHA recordkeeping regulation changes on occupational injury and illness trends in the US: a time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Lee S; Forst, Linda

    2007-07-01

    The Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses (SOII), based on Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) logs, indicates that the number of occupational injuries and illnesses in the US has steadily declined by 35.8% between 1992-2003. However, major changes to the OSHA recordkeeping standard occurred in 1995 and 2001. The authors assessed the relation between changes in OSHA recordkeeping regulations and the trend in occupational injuries and illnesses. SOII data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for years 1992-2003 were collected. The authors assessed time series data using join-point regression models. Before the first major recordkeeping change in 1995, injuries and illnesses declined annually by 0.5%. In the period 1995-2000 the slope declined by 3.1% annually (95% CI -3.7% to -2.5%), followed by another more precipitous decline occurring in 2001-2003 (-8.3%; 95% CI -10.0% to -6.6%). When stratifying the data, the authors continued to observe significant changes occurring in 1995 and 2001. The substantial declines in the number of injuries and illnesses correspond directly with changes in OSHA recordkeeping rules. Changes in employment, productivity, OSHA enforcement activity and sampling error do not explain the large decline. Based on the baseline slope (join-point regression analysis, 1992-4), the authors expected a decline of 407 964 injuries and illnesses during the period of follow-up if no intervention occurred; they actually observed a decline of 2.4 million injuries and illnesses of which 2 million or 83% of the decline can be attributed to the change in the OSHA recordkeeping rules.

  10. The impact of OSHA recordkeeping regulation changes on occupational injury and illness trends in the US: a time‐series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Lee S; Forst, Linda

    2007-01-01

    Objectives The Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses (SOII), based on Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) logs, indicates that the number of occupational injuries and illnesses in the US has steadily declined by 35.8% between 1992–2003. However, major changes to the OSHA recordkeeping standard occurred in 1995 and 2001. The authors assessed the relation between changes in OSHA recordkeeping regulations and the trend in occupational injuries and illnesses. Methods SOII data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for years 1992–2003 were collected. The authors assessed time series data using join‐point regression models. Results Before the first major recordkeeping change in 1995, injuries and illnesses declined annually by 0.5%. In the period 1995–2000 the slope declined by 3.1% annually (95% CI −3.7% to −2.5%), followed by another more precipitous decline occurring in 2001–2003 (−8.3%; 95% CI −10.0% to −6.6%). When stratifying the data, the authors continued to observe significant changes occurring in 1995 and 2001. Conclusions The substantial declines in the number of injuries and illnesses correspond directly with changes in OSHA recordkeeping rules. Changes in employment, productivity, OSHA enforcement activity and sampling error do not explain the large decline. Based on the baseline slope (join‐point regression analysis, 1992–4), the authors expected a decline of 407 964 injuries and illnesses during the period of follow‐up if no intervention occurred; they actually observed a decline of 2.4 million injuries and illnesses of which 2 million or 83% of the decline can be attributed to the change in the OSHA recordkeeping rules. PMID:17303676

  11. Application of the time-series approach to assess the temporal trend of racial disparity in chlamydia prevalence in the US National Job Training Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Lin H; Satterwhite, Catherine Lindsey; Braxton, Jim R; Groseclose, Samuel L

    2011-01-15

    The authors applied a time-series approach to assess the temporal trend of racial disparity in chlamydia prevalence between young, socioeconomically disadvantaged blacks and whites entering the US National Job Training Program. Racial disparity was defined as the arithmetic difference between age group-, specimen type-, and region of residence-standardized chlamydia prevalences in blacks and whites. A regression with autoregressive moving average errors model was employed to adjust for serial correlation. Data from 46,849 women (2006-2008) and 136,892 men (2004-2008) were analyzed. Racial disparity significantly decreased among women (by an average of 0.122% per 2-month interval; P < 0.05) but not among men (-0.010%, P = 0.57). Chlamydia prevalence significantly declined for black women (-0.139% per 2-month interval; P = 0.004), black men (-0.045%, P < 0.001), and white men (-0.035%, P = 0.002) but not for white women (-0.028%, P = 0.413). Despite the decreases among black women and black men, the black-white disparities remained high for both sexes; in 2008, the racial disparity was 8.1% (95% confidence interval: 6.8, 9.3) for women and 9.0% (95% confidence interval: 8.4, 9.6) for men. These findings suggest that current chlamydia control efforts may be reaching young black men and women but need to be scaled up or modified to address the excess risk among blacks.

  12. Effect Of Gender And Lifestyle Behaviors On BMI Trends In A Sample Of The First State's Undergraduate Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Souza, Malcolm J; Walls, Karri-Jo E; Rojas, Christine; Everett, Lynn M; Wentzien, Derald E

    2015-06-01

    The 2010 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report indicates that 63.4% of Delaware's adult population is overweight and 28% is obese. Here, the authors reveal analyses acquired from detailed investigations about the importance of gender, and other lifestyle factors and behaviors on the Body Mass Index (BMI) trends amongst an indiscriminate sample of the Wesley College (Wesley) undergraduate population. A 25-question paper-format survey was distributed to 307 randomly chosen Wesley undergraduates. The accrued qualitative (or categorical) data were transferred to an Excel spreadsheet to construct and observe frequency distributions. A Chi-square test of independence (χ 2 ) was performed between BMI status (normal, overweight, obese) and the following factors: gender, diet plan, adherence to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) MyPlate nutrition guide, use of the seasonal flu shot, weekly workout schedule, supplement usage, participation on athletic teams, questioning of label nutritional facts, and the use of added salt in food. A 2-sample proportion test was performed between students who were overweight or obese for the same factors. Also performed were t-tests for mean BMI for those who followed USDA MyPlate guidelines and for those who did not. An analysis of 278 completed surveys show that 29.5% of the Wesley respondents are overweight and 19.8% are obese. The mean BMI for males was statistically higher than the mean BMI for females. The mean BMI for students living on-campus was statistically higher than the mean BMI for students living off-campus. The results also demonstrate that adhering to the USDA dietary recommendations for fruit and dairy can be important factors in reducing the risk of obesity.

  13. Trends in obesity and diabetes across Africa from 1980 to 2014: an analysis of pooled population-based studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    The 2016 Dar Es Salaam Call to Action on Diabetes and Other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) advocates national multi-sectoral NCD strategies and action plans based on available data and information from countries of sub-Saharan Africa and beyond. We estimated trends from 1980 to 2014 in age-standardized mean body mass index (BMI) and diabetes prevalence in these countries, in order to assess the co-progression and assist policy formulation. We pooled data from African and worldwide population-based studies which measured height, weight and biomarkers to assess diabetes status in adults aged ≥ 18 years. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate trends by sex for 200 countries and territories including 53 countries across five African regions (central, eastern, northern, southern and western), in mean BMI and diabetes prevalence (defined as either fasting plasma glucose of ≥ 7.0 mmol/l, history of diabetes diagnosis, or use of insulin or oral glucose control agents). African data came from 245 population-based surveys (1.2 million participants) for BMI and 76 surveys (182 000 participants) for diabetes prevalence estimates. Countries with the highest number of data sources for BMI were South Africa (n = 17), Nigeria (n = 15) and Egypt (n = 13); and for diabetes estimates, Tanzania (n = 8), Tunisia (n = 7), and Cameroon, Egypt and South Africa (all n = 6). The age-standardized mean BMI increased from 21.0 kg/m2 (95% credible interval: 20.3-21.7) to 23.0 kg/m2 (22.7-23.3) in men, and from 21.9 kg/m2 (21.3-22.5) to 24.9 kg/m2 (24.6-25.1) in women. The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes increased from 3.4% (1.5-6.3) to 8.5% (6.5-10.8) in men, and from 4.1% (2.0-7.5) to 8.9% (6.9-11.2) in women. Estimates in northern and southern regions were mostly higher than the global average; those in central, eastern and western regions were lower than global averages. A positive association (correlation coefficient ≃ 0

  14. Population based trends in mortality, morbidity and treatment for very preterm- and very low birth weight infants over 12 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rüegger Christoph

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Over the last two decades, improvements in medical care have been associated with a significant increase and better outcome of very preterm (VP, Methods Our population-based observational cohort study used the Minimal Neonatal Data Set, a database maintained by the Swiss Society of Neonatology including information of all VP- and VLBW infants. Perinatal characteristics, mortality and morbidity rates and the survival free of major complications were analysed and their temporal trends evaluated. Results In 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008, a total number of 3090 infants were enrolled in the Network Database. At the same time the rate of VP- and VLBW neonates increased significantly from 0.87% in 1996 to 1.10% in 2008 (p Conclusions Over the 12-year observation period, the number of VP- and VLBW infants increased significantly. An unchanged overall mortality rate and an increase of survivors free of major complication resulted in a considerable net gain in infants with potentially good outcome.

  15. Evaluation of the Trends, Concomitant Procedures, and Complications With Open and Arthroscopic Rotator Cuff Repairs in the Medicare Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Andrew R.; Cha, Peter S.; Devana, Sai K.; Ishmael, Chad; Di Pauli von Treuheim, Theo; D’Oro, Anthony; Wang, Jeffrey C.; McAllister, David R.; Petrigliano, Frank A.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Medicare insures the largest population of patients at risk for rotator cuff tears in the United States. Purpose: To evaluate the trends in incidence, concomitant procedures, and complications with open and arthroscopic rotator cuff repairs in Medicare patients. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: All Medicare patients who had undergone open or arthroscopic rotator cuff repair from 2005 through 2011 were identified with a claims database. Annual incidence, concomitant procedures, and postoperative complications were compared between these 2 groups. Results: In total, 372,109 rotator cuff repairs were analyzed. The incidence of open repairs decreased (from 6.0 to 4.3 per 10,000 patients, P repairs increased (from 4.5 to 7.8 per 10,000 patients, P rotator cuff repairs have increased in incidence and now represent the majority of rotator cuff repair surgery. Among concomitant procedures, subacromial decompression was most commonly performed despite evidence suggesting a lack of efficacy. Infections and stiffness were rare complications that were slightly but significantly more frequent in open rotator cuff repairs. PMID:29051905

  16. Autism phenotype versus registered diagnosis in Swedish children: prevalence trends over 10 years in general population samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundström, Sebastian; Reichenberg, Abraham; Anckarsäter, Henrik; Lichtenstein, Paul; Gillberg, Christopher

    2015-04-28

    To compare the annual prevalence of the autism symptom phenotype and of registered diagnoses for autism spectrum disorder during a 10 year period in children. Population based study. Child and Adolescent Twin Study and national patient register, Sweden. 19, 993 twins (190 with autism spectrum disorder) and all children (n=1,078,975; 4620 with autism spectrum disorder) born in Sweden over a 10 year period from 1993 to 2002. Annual prevalence of the autism symptom phenotype (that is, symptoms on which the diagnostic criteria are based) assessed by a validated parental telephone interview (the Autism-Tics, ADHD and other Comorbidities inventory), and annual prevalence of reported diagnoses of autism spectrum disorder in the national patient register. The annual prevalence of the autism symptom phenotype was stable during the 10 year period (P=0.87 for linear time trend). In contrast, there was a monotonic significant increase in prevalence of registered diagnoses of autism spectrum disorder in the national patient register (Pautism symptom phenotype has remained stable in children in Sweden while the official prevalence for registered, clinically diagnosed, autism spectrum disorder has increased substantially. This suggests that administrative changes, affecting the registered prevalence, rather than secular factors affecting the pathogenesis, are important for the increase in reported prevalence of autism spectrum disorder. © Lundström et al 2015.

  17. Adult Brain Cancer in the U.S. Black Population: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Analysis of Incidence, Survival, and Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriel, Abigail; Batey, Jason; Capogreco, Joseph; Kimball, David; Walters, Andy; Tubbs, R. Shane; Loukas, Marios

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite much epidemiological research on brain cancer in the United States, the etiology for the various subtypes remains elusive. The black population in the United States currently experiences lower incidence but higher survival rates when compared to other races. Thus, the aim of this study is to analyze the trends in incidence and survival for the 6 most common primary brain tumors in the black population of the United States. Material/Methods The Surveillance, Epidemiology, an...

  18. Successional change in the Lake Superior fish community: population trends in ciscoes, rainbow smelt, and lake trout, 1958-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, Owen T.

    2012-01-01

    The Lake Superior fish community underwent massive changes in the second half of the 20th century. Those changes are largely reflected in changes in abundance of the adults of principal prey species, the ciscoes (Coregonus spp.), the invasive rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax), and the principal predator, lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush). To better understand changes in species abundances, a comprehensive series of gillnet and bottom trawl data collected from 1958 to 2008 were examined. In the late 1950s/early 1960s, smelt abundance was at its maximum, wild lake trout was at its minimum, and an abundance of hatchery lake trout was increasing rapidly. The bloater (Coregonus hoyi) was the prevalent cisco in the lake; abundance was more than 300% greater than the next most abundant cisco, shortjaw cisco (C. zenithicus), followed by kiyi (C. kiyi) and lake cisco (C. artedi). By the mid-1960s, abundance of hatchery lake trout was nearing maximum, smelt abundance was beginning to decline, and abundances of all ciscoes declined, but especially that of shortjaw cisco and kiyi. By the late 1970s, recovery of wild lake trout stocks was well underway and abundances of hatchery lake trout and smelt were declining and the ciscoes were reaching their nadir. During 1980–1990, the fish community underwent a dramatic shift in organization and structure. The rapid increase in abundance of wild lake trout, concurrent with a rapid decline in hatchery lake trout, signaled the impending recovery. Rainbow smelt abundance dropped precipitously and within four years, lake cisco and bloater populations rebounded on the heels of a series of strong recruitment events. Kiyi populations showed signs of recovery by 1989, and shortjaw by 2000, though well below historic maximum abundances. High abundance of adult smelt prior to 1980 appears to be the only factor linked to recruitment failure in the ciscoes. Life history traits of the cisco species were examined to better understand their different

  19. Clinical and radiological analysis of a series of periapical cysts and periapical granulomas diagnosed in a Brazilian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavares, Daniel-Petitet; Rodrigues, Janderson-Teixeira; Dos Santos, Teresa-Cristina-Ribeiro-Bartholomeu; Armada, Luciana; Pires, Fábio-Ramôa

    2017-01-01

    Periapical cysts (PC) and periapical granulomas (PG) are the two most common chronic inflammatory periapical diseases, but their clinicoradiological characteristics can vary depending on the methods employed in each study. The aim of the present work was to analyze the clinical and radiological profile of a series of PC and PG diagnosed in a Brazilian population. The files of two Oral Pathology laboratories were reviewed and all cases diagnosed as PG and PC were selected for the study. Clinical and radiological information were retrieved and data were tabulated and descriptively and comparatively analyzed. Final sample was composed by 647 inflammatory periapical lesions, including 244 PG (38%) and 403 PC (62%). The number of women affected by PG was significantly higher than the number of women affected by PC ( p =0.037). Anterior region of the maxilla was the most common affected area for both entities (39% of the cases), but the most common anatomical location of PG (anterior maxilla and posterior maxilla) was different from PC (anterior maxilla and posterior mandible) ( p Periapical granuloma, periapical cyst, radicular cyst, diagnosis, Oral Pathology.

  20. Secular Trends in Utilization of Critical Care Services Among Candidemia-Associated Hospitalizations: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Lavi

    2016-01-01

    half of the last decade. Substantial heterogeneity was noted in the rate of rise in the incidence of C-ICU across examined age groups. Further study in other populations is required to corroborate our findings and examine the sources of the observed trends.

  1. Analysing recent socioeconomic trends in coronary heart disease mortality in England, 2000-2007: a population modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhavi Bajekal

    , opposing trends in major risk factors meant that their net contribution amounted to just over a third of the CHD deaths averted; these also varied substantially by socioeconomic group. Powerful and equitable evidence-based population-wide policy interventions exist; these should now be urgently implemented to effectively tackle persistent inequalities.

  2. Trends in colorectal cancer incidence: a period and birth-cohort analysis in a well-defined French population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauvenet, Marion; Cottet, Vanessa; Lepage, Côme; Jooste, Valérie; Faivre, Jean; Bouvier, Anne-Marie

    2011-06-30

    France stands among high-risk areas for colorectal cancer. Different trends in CRC incidence are reported around the world. The aim of this study was to provide temporal trends in CRC incidence over a 30-year period in a French well-defined population. Between 1976 and 2005, 17,028 new cases were registered by the Burgundy digestive cancer registry. The mean variations in age-standardized incidence rates were estimated using a Poisson regression adjusted for age for each gender and location. The cumulative risk by birth cohort of developing a cancer over the age range 0-74 years was estimated using an age-cohort model. Incidence rates for right and left colon cancers increased more rapidly in males (respectively +11.7% and +10.3% on average by 5-year period) than in females (respectively +5.9% and +6.1%). It remained stable for sigmoid cancers in males (-0.1%) and decreased in females (-5.2%). It also decreased for rectal cancers both in males (-2.7%) and in females (-2.0%). The cumulative risk increased from 3.9% for males born around 1900 to 4.9% for those born around 1930 and then slightly decreased (4.5% among those born around 1950). It remained at the same level for females born around 1900 (2.7%) as for those born around 1930 (2.7%) and then slightly increased (2.9%) for those born around 1950. For right colon cancers, the cumulative risk increased strikingly in successive birth cohorts from 0.53% to 1.2% in males and 0.55% to 0.77% in females. The corresponding cumulative risks for the left colon were 0.24% and 0.42% in males and 0.14% and 0.29% in females. For sigmoid cancer, they decreased from 1.59% to 1.08% in males, and 0.88% to 0.80% in females. Temporal variations in incidence rates of colorectal cancers differed according to subsite, suggesting different aetiological factors and implications for diagnosis and screening strategies. Total colonoscopy must be the preferred strategy in high-risk groups or after a positive faecal occult blood test.

  3. Trends in colorectal cancer incidence: a period and birth-cohort analysis in a well-defined French population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faivre Jean

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background France stands among high-risk areas for colorectal cancer. Different trends in CRC incidence are reported around the world. The aim of this study was to provide temporal trends in CRC incidence over a 30-year period in a French well-defined population. Methods Between 1976 and 2005, 17,028 new cases were registered by the Burgundy digestive cancer registry. The mean variations in age-standardized incidence rates were estimated using a Poisson regression adjusted for age for each gender and location. The cumulative risk by birth cohort of developing a cancer over the age range 0-74 years was estimated using an age-cohort model. Results Incidence rates for right and left colon cancers increased more rapidly in males (respectively +11.7% and +10.3% on average by 5-year period than in females (respectively +5.9% and +6.1%. It remained stable for sigmoid cancers in males (-0.1% and decreased in females (-5.2%. It also decreased for rectal cancers both in males (-2.7% and in females (-2.0%. The cumulative risk increased from 3.9% for males born around 1900 to 4.9% for those born around 1930 and then slightly decreased (4.5% among those born around 1950. It remained at the same level for females born around 1900 (2.7% as for those born around 1930 (2.7% and then slightly increased (2.9% for those born around 1950. For right colon cancers, the cumulative risk increased strikingly in successive birth cohorts from 0.53% to 1.2% in males and 0.55% to 0.77% in females. The corresponding cumulative risks for the left colon were 0.24% and 0.42% in males and 0.14% and 0.29% in females. For sigmoid cancer, they decreased from 1.59% to 1.08% in males, and 0.88% to 0.80% in females. Conclusion Temporal variations in incidence rates of colorectal cancers differed according to subsite, suggesting different aetiological factors and implications for diagnosis and screening strategies. Total colonoscopy must be the preferred strategy in high

  4. Population trends of smallmouth bass in the upper Colorado River basin with an evaluation of removal effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breton, André R.; Winkelman, Dana L.; Hawkins, John A.; Bestgen, Kevin R.

    2014-01-01

    , environmental effects were also responsible for significant declines in smallmouth bass densities in some reaches. Abundant year classes of young smallmouth bass produced in low flow and warm years such as 2007 have potential to overwhelm removal efforts, and the year class persists for one or more years. Nonetheless, it appears that increased electrofishing removal efforts from 2007 to 2011 resulted in sustained reductions in density of smallmouth bass sub-adults and adults throughout the upper basin despite environmental conditions that favored smallmouth bass reproduction in some years (e.g. 2007 and 2009), subsequent recruitment into sub-adult and adult age classes, and movement of smallmouth bass which previously (prior to increases in electrofishing removal efforts) allowed densities to recover in some reaches.We recommend that removal efforts continue in most areas of the upper basin but that the Recovery Program consider allocating effort based on population trends and suspected areas of highest smallmouth bass reproduction. For instance, reproduction, recruitment, and movement of smallmouth bass allowed densities to recover in some reaches, particularly Little Yampa Canyon. Smallmouth bass population recovery implies that areas such as Little Yampa Canyon itself or adjacent reaches (especially upstream), may provide important habitat for age-0 production. We recommend continued assessment of smallmouth bass populations in reaches where reproduction or age-1 nurseries are suspected, such as Little Yampa Canyon and the adjacent upstream reach. It may also be necessary to expand monitoring to areas surrounding suspected sources of smallmouth bass reproduction and increase electrofishing removal effort in these reaches.

  5. Teacher Resource Book for Population Pressure in Indonesia, Problems of Industrialization in Eurasia, Power Blocs in Eurasia. Man on the Earth Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Angus

    This teacher's resource book is a guide to three intermediate texts about Eurasia entitled Population Pressure in Indonesia, Problems of Industrialization in Eurasia, and Power Blocs in Eurasia. The texts are part of the series, Man on the Earth, which probes broad-based issues confronting mankind. The resource book distinguishes 18 major concepts…

  6. Time trends in the association of ESRD incidence with area-level poverty in the US population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrity, Bridget H; Kramer, Holly; Vellanki, Kavitha; Leehey, David; Brown, Julia; Shoham, David A

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the temporal trends of the association between area-level poverty status and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence. We hypothesized that the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence has increased significantly over time. Patient data from the United States Renal Data System were linked with data from the 2000 and 2010 US census. Area-level poverty was defined as living in a zip code-defined area with ≥20% of households living below the federal poverty line. Negative binomial regression models were created to examine the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence by time period in the US adult population while simultaneously adjusting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code. Time was categorized as January 1, 1995 through December 31, 2004 (Period 1) and January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2010 (Period 2). The percentage of adults initiating dialysis with area-level poverty increased from 27.4% during Period 1 to 34.0% in Period 2. After accounting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code, area-level poverty status was associated with a 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22, 1.25)-fold higher ESRD incidence. However, this association differed by time period with 1.04-fold (95% CI 1.02, 1.05) higher ESRD incidence associated with poverty status for Period 2 compared with the association between ESRD and poverty status in Period 1. Area-level poverty and its association with ESRD incidence is not static over time. © 2015 International Society for Hemodialysis.

  7. Health Information Brokers in the General Population: An Analysis of the Health Information National Trends Survey 2013-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutrona, Sarah L; Mazor, Kathleen M; Agunwamba, Amenah A; Valluri, Sruthi; Wilson, Patrick M; Sadasivam, Rajani S; Finney Rutten, Lila J

    2016-06-03

    Health information exchanged between friends or family members can influence decision making, both for routine health questions and for serious health issues. A health information broker is a person to whom friends and family turn for advice or information on health-related topics. Characteristics and online behaviors of health information brokers have not previously been studied in a national population. The objective of this study was to examine sociodemographic characteristics, health information seeking behaviors, and other online behaviors among health information brokers. Data from the Health Information National Trends Survey (2013-2014; n=3142) were used to compare brokers with nonbrokers. Modified Poisson regression was used to examine the relationship between broker status and sociodemographics and online information seeking. Over half (54.8%) of the respondents were consulted by family or friends for advice or information on health topics (ie, they acted as health information brokers). Brokers represented 54.1% of respondents earning brokers (PR 1.34, 95% CI 1.23-1.47) as were those with education past high school (PR 1.42, CI 1.22-1.65). People aged ≥75 were less likely to be brokers as compared to respondents aged 35-49 (PR 0.81, CI 0.67-0.99). Brokers used the Internet more frequently for a variety of online behaviors such as seeking health information, creating and sharing online content, and downloading health information onto a mobile device; and also reported greater confidence in obtaining health information online. More than 50% of adults who responded to this national survey, including those with low income and those born abroad, were providing health information or advice to friends and family. These individuals may prove to be effective targets for initiatives supporting patient engagement and disease management, and may also be well-positioned within their respective social networks to propagate health messages.

  8. The hydrologic bench-mark program; a standard to evaluate time-series trends in selected water-quality constituents for streams in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buell, G.R.; Grams, S.C.

    1985-01-01

    Significant temporal trends in monthly pH, specific conductance, total alkalinity, hardness, total nitrite-plus-nitrite nitrogen, and total phosphorus measurements at five stream sites in Georgia were identified using a rank correlation technique, the seasonal Kendall test and slope estimator. These sites include a U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Bench-Mark site, Falling Creek near Juliette, and four periodic water-quality monitoring sites. Comparison of raw data trends with streamflow-residual trends and, where applicable, with chemical-discharge trends (instantaneous fluxes) shws that some of these trends are responses to factors other than changing streamflow. Percentages of forested, agricultural, and urban cover with each basin did not change much during the periods of water-quality record, and therefore these non-flow-related trends are not obviously related to changes in land cover or land use. Flow-residual water-quality trends at the Hydrologic Bench-Mark site and at the Chattooga River site probably indicate basin reponses to changes in the chemical quality of atmospheric deposition. These two basins are predominantly forested and have received little recent human use. Observed trends at the other three sites probably indicate basin responses to various land uses and water uses associated with agricultural and urban land or to changes in specific uses. (USGS)

  9. How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig S. Machtans

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years and spatial (stations within stands autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively and Canada (9 versus 20. Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24 and Canada (20. Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower and for Canada (1.15% per year lower relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak. However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.

  10. Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam C Smith

    Full Text Available North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species' breeding habitat. A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines.

  11. Morphological and anatomical relationships in Alpine-Dinaric populations of the genus Iris L., Pallidae series (A. Kern. Trinajstić (Iridaceae

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    Bożena Mitić

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The relationships within the Alpine-Dinaric and cultivated populations of the genus Iris, Pallidae series, have been analysed. Seven morphological characteristics (stem length, length of the largest leaf, greatest width of the largest leaf, length of the smallest leaf, greatest width of the smallest leaf, the number of leaves and the number of flowers and seven leaf anatomical (length and width of stomata, length and width of epidermal cells, number of stomata and epidermal cells per mm'- and length of styloids have been used for this purpose. Relationships between populations were analysed by methods of multivariate statistics (Cluster, PCA and MST analyses. The results of Cluster and PCA analyses showed that, owing to leaf anatomical features, five main groups of the populations could be distinguished within the Pallidae series. Four of them belong to the species L. pallida, L. cengialti, L. illyrica and I. pseudopallida. The MST analyses showed that the fifth group contained mixed populations of I. illyrica and I. pseudopallida. The results point at the lack of taxonomic usefulness of the leaf anatomical features analysed and indicate that they caused successive geographical differentiation of the populations of the Pallidae series.

  12. Temporal trends in age and size at maturation of four North Sea gadid populations: cod, haddock, whiting, and Norway pout

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marty, Lise; Rochet, Marie-Joëlle; Ernande, Bruno

    2014-01-01

    , phenotypic plasticity, and evolution to these trends were assessed. First, maturation trends were extricated from demographic effects and growth-dependent plasticity by estimating probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs). PMRN midpoints have significantly shifted downwards at most ages for cod......, haddock, and whiting, but not for Norway pout. Second, increased temperature and food abundance, loosened trophic competition, and relaxed social pressure may also trigger growth-independent plasticity in maturation. Principal component regression of PMRN midpoints on annual estimates of relevant...... environmental variables exhibiting a temporal trend suggest that, despite some evidence of environmental effects, PMRN trends were mostly independent of growth-independent plasticity in haddock, whiting, and male cod, but not in female cod. According to these findings, evolution of maturation, potentially...

  13. Trends in hospital admissions and surgical procedures for degenerative lumbar spine disease in England: a 15-year time-series study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivasubramaniam, Vinothan; Patel, Hitesh C; Ozdemir, Baris A; Papadopoulos, Marios C

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Low back pain (LBP), from degenerative lumbar spine disease, represents a significant burden on healthcare resources. Studies worldwide report trends attributable to their country's specific demographics and healthcare system. Considering England's specific medico-socioeconomic conditions, we investigate recent trends in hospital admissions and procedures for LBP, and discuss the implications for the allocation of healthcare resources. Design Retrospective cohort study using Hospital Episode Statistics data relating to degenerative lumbar spine disease in England, between 1999 and 2013. Regression models were used to analyse trends. Outcome measures Trends in the number of admissions and procedures for LBP, mean patient age, gender and length of stay. Results Hospital admissions and procedures have increased significantly over the study period, from 127.09 to 216.16 and from 24.5 to 48.83 per 100 000, respectively, (pdisease, and highlight the need for services capable of dealing with the increased comorbidity burden associated with an ageing patient group. PMID:26671956

  14. An evaluation of prescribing trends and patterns of claims within the Preferred Drugs Initiative in Ireland (2011-2016): an interrupted time-series study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDowell, Ronald

    2018-04-20

    To examine the impact of the Preferred Drugs Initiative (PDI), an Irish health policy aimed at enhancing evidence-based cost-effective prescribing, on prescribing trends and the cost of prescription medicines across seven medication classes.

  15. Effect of a population-level performance dashboard intervention on maternal-newborn outcomes: an interrupted time series study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Deborah; Dunn, Sandra I; Sprague, Ann E; Fell, Deshayne B; Grimshaw, Jeremy M; Darling, Elizabeth; Graham, Ian D; Harrold, JoAnn; Smith, Graeme N; Peterson, Wendy E; Reszel, Jessica; Lanes, Andrea; Walker, Mark C; Taljaard, Monica

    2018-06-01

    To assess the effect of the Maternal Newborn Dashboard on six key clinical performance indicators in the province of Ontario, Canada. Interrupted time series using population-based data from the provincial birth registry covering a 3-year period before implementation of the Dashboard and 2.5 years after implementation (November 2009 through March 2015). All hospitals in the province of Ontario providing maternal-newborn care (n=94). A hospital-based online audit and feedback programme. Rates of the six performance indicators included in the Dashboard. 2.5 years after implementation, the audit and feedback programme was associated with statistically significant absolute decreases in the rates of episiotomy (decrease of 1.5 per 100 women, 95% CI 0.64 to 2.39), induction for postdates in women who were less than 41 weeks at delivery (decrease of 11.7 per 100 women, 95% CI 7.4 to 16.0), repeat caesarean delivery in low-risk women performed before 39 weeks (decrease of 10.4 per 100 women, 95% CI 9.3 to 11.5) and an absolute increase in the rate of appropriately timed group B streptococcus screening (increase of 2.8 per 100, 95% CI 2.2 to 3.5). The audit and feedback programme did not significantly affect the rates of unsatisfactory newborn screening blood samples or formula supplementation at discharge. No statistically significant effects were observed for the two internal control outcomes or the four external control indicators-in fact, two external control indicators (episiotomy and postdates induction) worsened relative to before implementation. An electronic audit and feedback programme implemented in maternal-newborn hospitals was associated with clinically relevant practice improvements at the provincial level in the majority of targeted indicators. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  16. Skiing trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles R. Goeldner; Stacy Standley

    1980-01-01

    A brief historical overview of skiing is presented, followed by a review of factors such as energy, population trends, income, sex, occupation and attitudes which affect the future of skiing. A. C. Neilson's Sports Participation Surveys show that skiing is the second fastest growing sport in the country. Skiing Magazine's study indicates there are...

  17. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  18. Temporal trends in the association between socioeconomic status and cancer survival in Ontario: a population-based retrospective study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dabbikeh, Andrew; Peng, Yingwei; Mackillop, William J.; Booth, Christopher M.; Zhang-Salomons, Jina

    2017-01-01

    Background: Cancer survival is known to be associated with socioeconomic status. The income gap between the richer and poorer segments of the population has widened over the last 20 years in Canada. The purpose of this study was to investigate temporal trends in disparities in cancer-specific survival related to socioeconomic status in Ontario. Methods: There were 920 334 cancer cases between 1993 and 2009 in the Ontario Cancer Registry. We linked median household income from the Canadian census to the registry. We calculated 5-year cancer-specific survival rates for all cancers combined and for specific cancer sites by socioeconomic status quintile and year of diagnosis, and modelled time to death using Cox regression. Results: Between 1993 and 2009, for all cancers combined, the hazard of death decreased by 3.1% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.969 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.967-0.971]) per year in the richest quintile and by 1.2% (HR 0.988 [95% CI 0.987-0.990]) per year in the poorest quintile. The corresponding values for breast cancer were 4.3% (HR 0.957 [95% CI 0.951-0.964]) and 2.0% (HR 0.980 [95% CI 0.975-0.986]); for lung cancer, 1.4% (HR 0.986 [95% CI 0.982-0.990]) and 0.3% (HR 0.997 [95% CI 0.995-1.000]); for colorectal cancer, 3.7% (HR 0.963 [95% CI 0.958-0.968]) and 1.8% (HR 0.982 [95% CI 0.978-0.985]); and for head and neck cancer, 3.1% (HR 0.969 [95% CI 0.958-0.979]) and 1.0% (HR 0.990 [95% CI 0.983-0.996]). Interpretation: Between 1993 and 2009, cancer-specific survival in Ontario improved more among patients from affluent communities than among those from poorer communities. This phenomenon cannot be explained by increased disparity in income. PMID:28877916

  19. Acute traumatic rupture of the patellar tendon in pediatric population: Case series and review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali Yousef, Mohamed Abdelhamid; Rosenfeld, Scott

    2017-11-01

    Intact knee extensor mechanism is required for the normal function of the lower extremity. Patellar tendon rupture is a relatively rare injury with peak age incidence around 40 years and usually occurs midsubstance. The occurrence of pure patellar tendon rupture without bony avulsion is an extremely rare injury in the pediatric population with few cases reported in the literature with limited information regarding frequency, complications, and outcomes in children. However, due to increased participation in sports and high-energy recreational activities during childhood, the frequency of such injuries has progressively increased. To evaluate the frequency of pediatric patellar tendon rupture injuries and describe the radiological findings, treatment modalities, and outcome of such injuries. Demographic and clinical data on a series of patients who sustained patellar tendon rupture were reviewed. These data included age at time of injury, sex, laterality, mechanism of injury, associated injuries, complications, presence or absence of Osgood-Schlatter disease, diagnostic imaging such as plain radiographs and magnetic resonance images (MRI), surgical technique, method of fixation, period of postoperative immobilization, total duration of physiotherapy, time to return to sports activities and follow-up duration. Insall-Salvati ratio was calculated on the preoperative lateral x-ray. The functional outcome was evaluated with regard to final knee active range of motion (AROM), manual quadriceps muscle testing, and presence or the absence of terminal extension lag. Clinical outcome rating using knee society score (KSS) was performed and functional outcome was further classified according to the calculated score. Five male patients with patellar tendon rupture (7%) were identified among 71 pediatric patients who sustained acute traumatic injury of the knee extensor mechanism. The mean age at the time of injury was 13.6 years (range: 12-15 years). The injury occurred in

  20. Analysis of population trends in the municipality of Nikšić in the period 1948 - 2011.: Correlation with the processes of industrialization and transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mićković Biljana B.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Since 1951 begins the foundation of large industrial facilities and the transformation of Niksić in the main industrial center of Montenegro. Therefore, thanks to the wave of rapid industrialization, NIKŠIĆ had after World War II a very rapid development, that occurred only at a small number of cities. All this has caused a large influx of population especially since 1960 till 1980s. In this paper the analysis of population trends in the municipality of Niksić in the period from 1948 to 2011 will be conducted and point out the correlation between the number of inhabitants with the processes of industrialization and transition.

  1. Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonya Crowe

    Full Text Available Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data.We analysed data from the control arms of cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh (27 553 births, eastern India (8 939, Dhanusha, Nepal (15 344 and Makwanpur, Nepal (6 765 over the period 2001-2011. For each trial, we calculated the observed proportion of attended births and the coverage of WHO essential newborn care practices by year, adjusted for clustering and stratification. To explore factors contributing to the observed trends, we then analysed expected trends due only to observed shifts in birth attendance, accounted for stratification, delivery type and statistically significant interaction terms, and examined disaggregated trends in care practice coverage by delivery type. Attended births increased over the study periods in all areas from very low rates, reaching a maximum of only 30% of deliveries. Newborn care practice trends showed marked heterogeneity within and between areas. Adjustment for stratification, birth attendance and interaction revealed that care practices could change in opposite directions over time and/or between delivery types - e.g. in Bangladesh hygienic cord-cutting and skin-to-skin contact fell in attended deliveries but not home deliveries, whereas in India birth attendant hand-washing rose for institutional deliveries but fell for home deliveries.Coverage of many essential newborn care practices is improving, albeit slowly and unevenly across sites and delivery type. Time trend analyses of birth patterns and essential newborn care practices can inform policy-makers about

  2. Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowe, Sonya; Prost, Audrey; Hossen, Munir; Azad, Kishwar; Kuddus, Abdul; Roy, Swati; Nair, Nirmala; Tripathy, Prasanta; Saville, Naomi; Sen, Aman; Sikorski, Catherine; Manandhar, Dharma; Costello, Anthony; Pagel, Christina

    2015-01-01

    Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data. We analysed data from the control arms of cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh (27 553 births), eastern India (8 939), Dhanusha, Nepal (15 344) and Makwanpur, Nepal (6 765) over the period 2001-2011. For each trial, we calculated the observed proportion of attended births and the coverage of WHO essential newborn care practices by year, adjusted for clustering and stratification. To explore factors contributing to the observed trends, we then analysed expected trends due only to observed shifts in birth attendance, accounted for stratification, delivery type and statistically significant interaction terms, and examined disaggregated trends in care practice coverage by delivery type. Attended births increased over the study periods in all areas from very low rates, reaching a maximum of only 30% of deliveries. Newborn care practice trends showed marked heterogeneity within and between areas. Adjustment for stratification, birth attendance and interaction revealed that care practices could change in opposite directions over time and/or between delivery types - e.g. in Bangladesh hygienic cord-cutting and skin-to-skin contact fell in attended deliveries but not home deliveries, whereas in India birth attendant hand-washing rose for institutional deliveries but fell for home deliveries. Coverage of many essential newborn care practices is improving, albeit slowly and unevenly across sites and delivery type. Time trend analyses of birth patterns and essential newborn care practices can inform policy-makers about effective

  3. Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowe, Sonya; Prost, Audrey; Hossen, Munir; Azad, Kishwar; Kuddus, Abdul; Roy, Swati; Nair, Nirmala; Tripathy, Prasanta; Saville, Naomi; Sen, Aman; Sikorski, Catherine; Manandhar, Dharma; Costello, Anthony; Pagel, Christina

    2015-01-01

    Background Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data. Methods and Findings We analysed data from the control arms of cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh (27 553 births), eastern India (8 939), Dhanusha, Nepal (15 344) and Makwanpur, Nepal (6 765) over the period 2001–2011. For each trial, we calculated the observed proportion of attended births and the coverage of WHO essential newborn care practices by year, adjusted for clustering and stratification. To explore factors contributing to the observed trends, we then analysed expected trends due only to observed shifts in birth attendance, accounted for stratification, delivery type and statistically significant interaction terms, and examined disaggregated trends in care practice coverage by delivery type. Attended births increased over the study periods in all areas from very low rates, reaching a maximum of only 30% of deliveries. Newborn care practice trends showed marked heterogeneity within and between areas. Adjustment for stratification, birth attendance and interaction revealed that care practices could change in opposite directions over time and/or between delivery types – e.g. in Bangladesh hygienic cord-cutting and skin-to-skin contact fell in attended deliveries but not home deliveries, whereas in India birth attendant hand-washing rose for institutional deliveries but fell for home deliveries. Conclusions Coverage of many essential newborn care practices is improving, albeit slowly and unevenly across sites and delivery type. Time trend analyses of birth patterns and essential newborn care practices

  4. Multi-annual fluctuations in reconstructed historical time-series of a European lobster (Homarus gammarus population disappear at increased exploitation levels.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Sundelöf

    Full Text Available Through the history of ecology, fluctuations of populations have been a dominating topic, and endogenous causes of fluctuations and oscillations have been recognized and studied for more than 80 years. Here we analyzed an historical dataset, covering more than 130 years, of European lobster (Homarus gammarus catches. The data shows periodic fluctuations, which are first dampened and then disappear over time. The disappearance of the periodicity coincided with a substantial increase in fishing effort and the oscillations have not reappeared in the time series. The shifting baseline syndrome has changed our perception of not only the status of the stock, but also the regulating pressures. We describe the transition of a naturally regulated lobster population into a heavily exploited fisheries controlled stock. This is shown by the incorporation of environmental and endogenous processes in generalized additive models, autocorrelation functions and periodicity analyses of time-series.

  5. Rapid Population Growth and Human Carrying Capacity: Two Perspectives. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 690 and Population and Development Series No. 15.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahar, Dennis J., Ed.; And Others

    Two perspectives on carrying capacity and population growth are examined. The first perspective, "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences" (Robert Muscat), explores the possible meanings of the idea of carrying capacity under developing country conditions, looks at historical and present-day cases of…

  6. Population and age-group trends in weekend sun protection and sunburn over two decades of the SunSmart programme in Melbourne, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makin, J K; Warne, C D; Dobbinson, S J; Wakefield, M A; Hill, D J

    2013-01-01

    In response to the high skin cancer burden in Australia, the multicomponent, community-wide SunSmart programme has worked since 1988 to reduce excessive sun exposure.  To examine trends in key sun-protection behaviours and sunburn for the Melbourne population from 1987 to 2007, and examine for the first time patterns of change among age groups.   Representative cross-sectional weekly telephone surveys of weekend sun protection and sunburn were conducted over 11 of the summers in the period 1987-88 to 2006-07. Trends were analysed for the population and for age groups, adjusting for ambient temperature and ultraviolet radiation, which are environmental determinants of sun-related behaviour and sunburn.   The general pattern of trends suggests two distinct periods, one with rapid improvement in behaviours (more sunscreen use, less unprotected body exposure and less sunburn) from 1987-88 to 1994-95, and the second from 1997-98 to 2006-07 with fewer changes in behaviours noted. The age-group analyses showed a similar pattern of change over time across groups, with a few notable exceptions.  The similarity of the pattern of trends among age groups suggests that external influences including the SunSmart programme's activity had a relatively similar impact across the population. Sun-related behaviours continue to be amenable to change. More recent relative stability with some declines in sun protection suggests further intensive campaigns and other strategies may be needed to maintain previous successes and to achieve more universal use of sun protection. © 2012 The Authors. BJD © 2012 British Association of Dermatologists.

  7. Childhood obesity trends from primary care electronic health records in England between 1994 and 2013: population-based cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaarsveld, C.H.M. van; Gulliford, M.C.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to use primary care electronic health records to evaluate the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 2-15-year-old children in England and compare trends over the last two decades. DESIGN: Cohort study of primary care electronic health records. SETTING: 375 general

  8. Epidemiology of Polymyalgia Rheumatica 2000-2014 and Examination of Incidence and Survival Trends Over 45 Years: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raheel, Shafay; Shbeeb, Izzat; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L

    2017-08-01

    To determine time trends in the incidence and survival of polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) over a 15-year period in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and to examine trends in incidence of PMR in the population by comparing this time period to a previous incidence cohort from the same population base. All cases of incident PMR among Olmsted County, Minnesota residents in 2000-2014 were identified to extend the previous 1970-1999 cohort. Detailed review of all individual medical records was performed. Incidence rates were age- and sex-adjusted to the US white 2010 population. Survival rates were compared with the expected rates in the population of Minnesota. There were 377 incident cases of PMR during the 15-year study period. Of these, 64% were female and the mean age at incidence was 74.1 years. The overall age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence of PMR was 63.9 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 57.4-70.4) per 100,000 population ages ≥50 years. Incidence rates increased with age in both sexes, but incidence fell after age 80 years. There was a slight increase in incidence of PMR in the recent time period compared to 1970-1999 (P = 0.063). Mortality among individuals with PMR was not significantly worse than that expected in the general population (standardized mortality ratio 0.70 [95% CI 0.57-0.85]). The incidence of PMR has increased slightly in the past 15 years compared to previous decades. Survivorship in patients with PMR is not worse than in the general population. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

  9. Trends in Achievement Gaps in First-Year College Courses for Racial/Ethnic, Income, and Gender Subgroups: A 12-Year Study. ACT Research Report Series 2013 (8)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorah, Julie; Ndum, Edwin

    2013-01-01

    Prior research has demonstrated gaps in the academic success of college student subgroups defined by race/ethnicity, income, and gender. We studied trends over time in the success of students in these subgroups in particular first-year college courses: English Composition I, College Algebra, social science courses, and Biology. The study is based…

  10. Inclusion of mobile telephone numbers into an ongoing population health survey in New South Wales, Australia, using an overlapping dual-frame design: impact on the time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Margo L; Ferguson, Raymond A; Steel, David G

    2014-08-12

    Since 1997, the NSW Population Health Survey (NSWPHS) had selected the sample using random digit dialing of landline telephone numbers. When the survey began coverage of the population by landline phone frames was high (96%). As landline coverage in Australia has declined and continues to do so, in 2012, a sample of mobile telephone numbers was added to the survey using an overlapping dual-frame design. Details of the methodology are published elsewhere. This paper discusses the impacts of the sampling frame change on the time series, and provides possible approaches to handling these impacts. Prevalence estimates were calculated for type of phone-use, and a range of health indicators. Prevalence ratios (PR) for each of the health indicators were also calculated using Poisson regression analysis with robust variance estimation by type of phone-use. Health estimates for 2012 were compared to 2011. The full time series was examined for selected health indicators. It was estimated from the 2012 NSWPHS that 20.0% of the NSW population were mobile-only phone users. Looking at the full time series for overweight or obese and current smoking if the NSWPHS had continued to be undertaken only using a landline frame, overweight or obese would have been shown to continue to increase and current smoking would have been shown to continue to decrease. However, with the introduction of the overlapping dual-frame design in 2012, overweight or obese increased until 2011 and then decreased in 2012, and current smoking decreased until 2011, and then increased in 2012. Our examination of these time series showed that the changes were a consequence of the sampling frame change and were not real changes. Both the backcasting method and the minimal coverage method could adequately adjust for the design change and allow for the continuation of the time series. The inclusion of the mobile telephone numbers, through an overlapping dual-frame design, did impact on the time series for some of

  11. Ten-Year Trends (2000-2010) of Overweight and Obesity Prevalence among the Young and Middle-Aged Adult Population of the Balearic Islands, a Mediterranean Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coll, Josep L; Bibiloni, Maria Del Mar; Salas, Rogelio; Tur, Josep A

    2015-01-01

    This article aimed at assessing the 10-year trends (2000-2010) in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among the Balearic Islands' adult population. Body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) for young (18-35 year-olds) and middle-aged (36-55 year-olds) adults living in the Balearics was calculated. Data represented 1,089 people during 1999-2000 and 1,081 people during 2009-2010. The BMI categories were as follows: normal weight (18.5 obese (≥30). Weighted frequency estimates and logistic regression analysis were used to calculate overweight and obesity trends. While the prevalence of overweight and obesity mostly remained stable over the 2000-2010 period, the prevalence of obesity increased from 5.1 to 8.3% in young adults (aged 18-35), a 1.66-fold increase in prevalence (95% CI 1.02-2.70) over the study period. Total overweight and obesity prevalence remained stable in the Balearic adult population; however, a rising prevalence of obesity has been observed in young adults, which suggests a need to develop and change current strategies in order to reverse the current trends in obesity among this age group. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  12. Notes on wild dog Lycaon pictus and lion Panthera leo population trends during a drought in the Kruger National Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.G.L. Mills

    1995-08-01

    Full Text Available Wild dog Lycaon pictus and lion Panthera leo populations in the Kruger National Park appeared to undergo an increase during a drought period in the early 1990s. Newly established packs, high adult survival and pup productivity contributed to an increase in the wild dog population and evidence for high predation success during the height of the drought is presented. An increase in the lion density between 1989 and 1993 on the northern basalt plains, as well as changes in the structure of the population, seem to be related to changes in prey populations, particularly to a decline in numbers and condition of buffalo Syncerus cafer.

  13. Trends in sea otter population abundance in western Prince William Sound, Alaska: Progress toward recovery following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Esslinger, George G.

    2011-01-01

    Sea otters in western Prince William Sound (WPWS) and elsewhere in the Gulf of Alaska suffered widespread mortality as a result of oiling following the 1989 T/V Exxon Valdez oil spill. Following the spill, extensive efforts have been directed toward identifying and understanding long-term consequences of the spill and the process of recovery. We conducted annual aerial surveys of sea otter abundance from 1993 to 2009 (except for 2001 and 2006) in WPWS. We observed an increasing trend in population abundance at the scale of WPWS through 2000 at an average annual rate of 4 percent: however, at northern Knight Island where oiling was heaviest and sea otter mortality highest, no increase in abundance was evident by 2000. We continued to see significant increase in abundance at the scale of WPWS between 2001 and 2009, with an average annual rate of increase from 1993 to 2009 of 2.6 percent. We estimated the 2009 population size of WPWS to be 3,958 animals (standard error=653), nearly 2,000 animals more than the first post-spill estimate in 1993. Surveys since 2003 also have identified a significant increasing trend at the heavily oiled site in northern Knight Island, averaging about 25 percent annually and resulting in a 2009 estimated population size of 116 animals (standard error=19). Although the 2009 estimate for northern Knight Island remains about 30 percent less than the pre-spill estimate of 165 animals, we interpret this trend as strong evidence of a trajectory toward recovery of spill-affected sea otter populations in WPWS.

  14. Divergent oestrogen receptor-specific breast cancer trends in Ireland (2004-2013): Amassing data from independent Western populations provide etiologic clues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullooly, Maeve; Murphy, Jeanne; Gierach, Gretchen L; Walsh, Paul M; Deady, Sandra; Barron, Thomas I; Sherman, Mark E; Rosenberg, Philip S; Anderson, William F

    2017-11-01

    The aetiology and clinical behaviour of breast cancers vary by oestrogen receptor (ER) expression, HER2 expression and over time. Data from the United States and Denmark show rising incidence rates for ER+ and falling incidence rates for ER- breast cancers. Given that Ireland is a somewhat similar Western population but with distinctive risk exposures (especially for lactation), we analysed breast cancer trends by ER status; and for the first time, by the joint expression of ER±/HER2±. We assessed invasive breast cancers (n = 24,845; 2004-2013) within the population-based National Cancer Registry of Ireland. The population at risk was obtained from the Irish Central Statistics Office (n = 10,401,986). After accounting for missing ER and HER2 data, we assessed receptor-specific secular trends in age-standardised incidence rates (ASRs) with the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Age-period-cohort models were also fitted to further characterise trends accounting for age, calendar-period and birth-cohort interactions. ASRs increased for ER+ (EAPC: 2.2% per year [95% CI: 0.97, 3.45%/year]) and decreased for ER- cancers (EAPC: -3.43% per year [95% CI: -5.05, -1.78%/year]), as well as for specific age groups at diagnosis (rates among independent Western populations likely reflects calendar-period and/or risk factor changes with differential effects for ER+ and ER- breast cancers. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. A population growth trend analysis for Neotricula aperta, the snail intermediate host of Schistosoma mekongi, after construction of the Pak-Mun dam.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen W Attwood

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The Pak-Mun dam is a controversial hydro-power project on the Mun River in Northeast Thailand. The dam is sited in a habitat of the freshwater snail Neotricula aperta, which is the intermediate host for the parasitic blood-fluke Schistosoma mekongi causing Mekong schistosomiasis in humans in Cambodia and Laos. Few data are available which can be used to assess the effects of water resource development on N. aperta. The aim of this study was to obtain data and to analyze the possible impact of the dam on N. aperta population growth.Estimated population densities were recorded for an N. aperta population in the Mun River 27 km upstream of Pak-Mun, from 1990 to 2011. The Pak-Mul dam began to operate in 1994. Population growth was modeled using a linear mixed model expression of a modified Gompertz stochastic state-space exponential growth model. The N. aperta population was found to be quite stable, with the estimated growth parameter not significantly different from zero. Nevertheless, some marked changes in snail population density were observed which were coincident with changes in dam operation policy.The study found that there has been no marked increase in N. aperta population growth following operation of the Pak-Mun dam. The analysis did indicate a large and statistically significant increase in population density immediately after the dam came into operation; however, this increase was not persistent. The study has provided the first vital baseline data on N. aperta population behavior near to the Pak-Mun dam and suggests that the operation policy of the dam may have an impact on snail population density. Nevertheless, additional studies are required for other N. aperta populations in the Mun River and for an extended time series, to confirm or refine the findings of this work.

  16. Body and organ dimensions of the 1945 Japanese population used in dosimetry system DS86 and data available for an expanded series of phantoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullings, H. M.; Kawamura, H.; Chen, J.

    2012-01-01

    The computational phantoms used in dosimetry system DS86 and re-used in DS02 were derived from models and methods developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratories (ORNL) in the US, but referred to Japanese anthropometric data for the Japanese population of 1945, from studies conducted at the Japanese National Inst. of Radiological Sciences and other sources. The phantoms developed for DS86 were limited to three hermaphroditic models: infant, child and adult. After comparing data from Japanese and Western populations, phantoms were adapted from the pre-existing ORNL series, adjusting some organs in the adult phantom to reflect differences between Japanese and Western data, but not in the infant and child phantoms. To develop a new and larger series of more age- and sex-specific models, it appears necessary to rely on the original Japanese data and values derived from them, which can directly provide population-average body dimensions for various ages. Those data were re-analysed in conjunction with other Asian data for an Asian Reference Man model, providing a rather complete table of organ weights that could be used to scale organs for growth during childhood and adolescence. Although the resulting organ volumes might have some inaccuracies in relation to true population-average values, this is a minor concern because in the DS02 context organ size per se is less important than the correct body size and correct placement of the organ in the body. (authors)

  17. Demographic Subgroup Trends among Adolescents in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2016. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 88

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Miech, Richard A.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

    2017-01-01

    This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup data for the 1975-2016 Monitoring the Future (MTF) national survey results on 8th , 10th, and 12th graders' use of drugs, alcohol, and tobacco. MTF is funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse at the National Institutes of Health under a series of investigator-initiated, competitive…

  18. Demographic Subgroup Trends among Adolescents in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2015. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 86

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Miech, Richard A.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

    2016-01-01

    This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup data for the 1975-2015 Monitoring the Future (MTF) national survey results on 8th, 10th, and 12th graders' use of drugs, alcohol, and tobacco. MTF is funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse at the National Institutes of Health under a series of investigator-initiated, competitive…

  19. Demographic Subgroup Trends among Adolescents in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2014. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 83

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Miech, Richard A.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

    2015-01-01

    This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup data for the 1975-2014 Monitoring the Future (MTF) national survey results on 8th, 10th, and 12th graders' use of drugs, alcohol, and tobacco. MTF is funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse at the National Institutes of Health under a series of investigator-initiated, competitive…

  20. Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Crowe, Sonya; Prost, Audrey; Hossen, Munir; Azad, Kishwar; Kuddus, Abdul; Roy, Swati; Nair, Nirmala; Tripathy, Prasanta; Saville, Naomi; Sen, Aman; Sikorski, Catherine; Manandhar, Dharma; Costello, Anthony; Pagel, Christina

    2015-01-01

    Background Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data. Methods and Findings We analysed data from the contro...

  1. Multidecadal trends in the nesting phenology of Pacific and Atlantic leatherback turtles are associated with population demography

    OpenAIRE

    Robinson, Nathan J.; Valentine, Sara E.; Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S.; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of the mechanisms influencing phenology can provide insights into the adaptability of species to climate change. Here, we investigated the factors influencing multidecadal trends in the nesting phenology of the leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea at Playa Grande, Costa Rica, in the eastern Pacific Ocean and at Sandy Point, US Virgin Islands, in the western Atlantic Ocean. Between 1993 and 2013, the median nesting date (MND) at Playa Grande occurred later, at a rate of ~0.3 d yr-...

  2. Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in breeding success in a declining population of migratory swans.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wood, K.A.; Newth, J.L.; Hilton, G.M.; Nolet, B.A.; Rees, E.C.

    2016-01-01

    Population declines among migratory Arctic-breeding birds are a growing concern for conservationists. To inform the conservation of these declining populations, we need to understand how demographic rates such as breeding success are influenced by combinations of extrinsic and intrinsic factors. In

  3. First Ground-Based Infrared Solar Absorption Measurements of Free Tropospheric Methanol (CH3OH): Multidecade Infrared Time Series from Kitt Peak (31.9 deg N 111.6 deg W): Trend, Seasonal Cycle, and Comparison with Previous Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinsland, Curtis P.; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Chiou, Linda; Herbin, Herve

    2009-01-01

    Atmospheric CH3OH (methanol) free tropospheric (2.09-14-km altitude) time series spanning 22 years has been analyzed on the basis of high-spectral resolution infrared solar absorption spectra of the strong vs band recorded from the U.S. National Solar Observatory on Kitt Peak (latitude 31.9degN, 111.6degW, 2.09-km altitude) with a 1-m Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS). The measurements span October 1981 to December 2003 and are the first long time series of CH3OH measurements obtained from the ground. The results were analyzed with SFIT2 version 3.93 and show a factor of three variations with season, a maximum at the beginning of July, a winter minimum, and no statistically significant long-term trend over the measurement time span.

  4. Adverse Events following 12 and 18 Month Vaccinations: a Population-Based, Self-Controlled Case Series Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Wilson, Kumanan; Hawken, Steven; Kwong, Jeffrey C.; Deeks, Shelley; Crowcroft, Natasha S.; Van Walraven, Carl; Potter, Beth K.; Chakraborty, Pranesh; Keelan, Jennifer; Pluscauskas, Michael; Manuel, Doug

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Live vaccines have distinct safety profiles, potentially causing systemic reactions one to 2 weeks after administration. In the province of Ontario, Canada, live MMR vaccine is currently recommended at age 12 months and 18 months. METHODS: Using the self-controlled case series design we examined 271,495 12 month vaccinations and 184,312 18 month vaccinations to examine the relative incidence of the composite endpoint of emergency room visits or hospital admissions in consecutive o...

  5. A Time Series Model of the Occurrence of Gastric Dilatation-Volvulus in a Population of Dogs

    OpenAIRE

    Levine, Michael; Moore, George E

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition of mammals, with increased risk in large breed dogs. The study of its etiological factors is difficult due to the variety of possible living conditions. The association between meteorological events and the occurrence of GDV has been postulated but remains unclear. This study introduces the binary time series approach to the investigation of the possible meteorological risk factors for GDV. The data collecte...

  6. NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry Sea Level Rise Products: Global and regional sea level time series and trend maps for the major ocean basins and marginal seas, based on measurements from satellite radar altimeters, from 1992-12-17 to 2017-08-11 (NCEI Accession 0125535)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This archival package contains global and regional mean sea level time series and trend maps calculated on a continual basis since December 1992 by Laboratory for...

  7. Effects of Helicobacter pylori infection and smoking on gastric cancer incidence in China: a population-level analysis of trends and projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldie, Sue J.; Kuntz, Karen M.; Ezzati, Majid

    2010-01-01

    Objective Although gastric cancer incidence is declining in China, trends may differ from historical patterns in developed countries. Our aim was to (1) retrospectively estimate the effects of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) and smoking on past gastric cancer incidence and (2) project how interventions on these two risk factors can reduce future incidence. Methods We used a population-based model of intestinal-type gastric cancer to estimate gastric cancer incidence between 1985 and 2050. Disease and risk factor data in the model were from community-based epidemiological studies and national prevalence surveys. Results Between 1985 and 2005, age-standardized gastric cancer incidence among Chinese men declined from 30.8 to 27.2 per 100,000 (12%); trends in H. pylori and smoking prevalences accounted for >30% of overall decline. If past risk factor trends continue, gastric cancer incidence will decline an additional 30% by 2050. Yet, annual cases will increase from 116,000 to 201,000 due to population growth and aging. Assuming that H. pylori prevention/treatment and tobacco control are implemented in 2010, the decline in gastric cancer incidence is projected to increase to 33% with universal H. pylori treatment for 20-year-olds, 42% for a hypothetical childhood H. pylori vaccine, and 34% for aggressive tobacco control. Conclusions The decline in gastric cancer incidence has been slower than in developed countries and will be offset by population growth and aging. Public health interventions should be implemented to reduce the total number of cases. PMID:19642005

  8. Population trends of Rhinolophus affinis during the breeding and non-breeding season roosting at the Kota Gelanggi limestone complex, Pahang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sia, Ting Jin; Zubaid, Akbar; Foo, Ng Yong

    2015-09-01

    Monitoring population trends of bats in caves is difficult but is very important for their conservation. Their vulnerability to decline cannot be taken lightly and must be monitored for future management purposes especially in places open to the public. No studies have been done on bats roosting in caves at Kota Gelanggi and there are very few published studies of cave-dwelling bats in Malaysia. To fill this gap, a study on monitoring the population trends of Rhinolophus affinis was carried out in two caves namely, Gua Kepala Gajah and Gua Tongkat. This study was conducted from October 2013 until December 2014. The population size was estimated by direct visual counts and photographic methods during the day. The bats were caught by using mists net and harp traps. The reproductive condition of both female and male individuals was examined. The mean estimated population size for R. affinis in Gua Kepala Gajah was 221 individuals and 464 in Gua Tongkat. The population size of R. affinis showed an obvious decline during the breeding season and increased gradually after that for both caves. Pregnant R. affinis were found in April 2014 and lactating in June 2014 in both caves. It is important to know the breeding and non-breeding season of bats in both caves and their roosting behaviour in order to protect the bats from human disturbance as these caves are open to the public. The findings will enable the TEKAM management to come out with a proper conservation and management plan for protecting the bat fauna in these caves.

  9. Trends in injury morbidity in China, 1993-2013: A longitudinal analysis of population-based survey data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Peishan; Cai, Min; Cheng, Peixia; Zhang, Yaoguang; Schwebel, David C; Yang, Yang; Zhang, Wei; Cheng, Xunjie; Gao, Yuyan; Ling, Xu; Hu, Guoqing

    2018-04-01

    Understanding long-term trends in injury morbidity is critical to prevention and intervention planning. The aim of this study was to assess long-term trends in injury morbidity rates in China from 1993 to 2013. Using data from the National Health Service Survey (NHSS), which is conducted every five years, crude and age-standardized prevalence during the previous two weeks and hospitalization rates in the last 12 months with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The Rao-Scott Chi-square test examined injury morbidity differences across the five survey years by location (urban/rural), sex, age group, and household income. Percent changes in morbidity rate were approximated using logistic regressions. Sampling weights were applied to all analyses. In 2013, crude two-week injury prevalence in China was 0.46% (95% CI: 0.40%, 0.52%) and 12-month crude hospitalization rate was 0.70% (95% CI: 0.63%, 0.77%). Age-standardized injury prevalence increased 31.4% (95% CI: 7.6%, 60.6%) between 1993 and 2013 (29.4%, 95% CI: 6.7%, 56.9% from 1993-2003; 1.6%, 95% CI: -14.8%, 21.0% from 2003-2013), and age-standardized hospitalization rates rose 107.2% (95% CI: 75.1%, 145.2%) from 1993 to 2013 (-9.5%, 95% CI: -24.6%, 8.6% from 1993-2003 and 129.0%, 95% CI: 93.9%, 170.4% from 2003-2013). Subgroup analyses showed similar trends over time. The leading cause of injury was dislocation, sprain or strain for prevalence, and fractures for hospitalization. In conclusion, injury morbidity increased substantially from 1993 to 2013 in China. Inconsistent changes in two-week prevalence and 12-month hospitalization rate merit attention from researchers and policy-makers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Trends in net survival from prostate cancer in six European Latin countries: results from the SUDCAN population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosclaude, Pascale; Roche, Laurent; Fuentes-Raspall, Rafael; Larrañaga, Nerea

    2017-01-01

    Cancer survival is a key measure of the effectiveness of a health-care system. European Latin countries have some differences in their health system; therefore, it is of interest to compare them in terms of survival from cancer. Prostate cancer data from six countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland) were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database (end of follow-up: 1 January 2009). First, the net survival (NS) was studied over the 2000-2004 period using the Pohar-Perme estimator. For trend analyses, the study period was specific to each country. Trends in NS over the 1989-2004 period and changes in the pattern of cancer excess mortality rate until 5 years after the diagnosis were examined using a multivariate excess mortality rate model. A striking increase in survival from prostate cancer occurred in European Latin countries at all ages studied. In the last period of the study, there was little difference in age-standardized NSs from prostate cancer between the six countries. The trends of the survival followed those of the incidence (except in Spain in the elderly); the increases in incidence were the highest at ages 60-70 years and, in the elderly (around 80 years), the incidence did not increase in Switzerland. The increases in NS can mainly be explained by lead-time and overdiagnosis effects. The epidemiological interpretability of the changes in prostate cancer survival in Latin countries is strongly compromised by the biases inherent to the extensive prostate-specific antigen testing.

  11. Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, Bin; Lu, Yuan; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Bentham, James; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Danaei, Goodarz; Bixby, Honor; Cowan, Melanie J; Ali, Mohammed K; Taddei, Cristina; Lo, Wei-Cheng; Reis-Santos, Barbara; Stevens, Gretchen A.; Riley, Leanne M.; Miranda, J. Jaime

    2016-01-01

    Source: doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00618-8 Background:One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the agestandardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes. Methods:We pooled data from popu...

  12. THE MAIN TRENDS OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ADMINISTRATION OF ROSPOTREBNADZOR IN THE LENINGRAD REGION AND THE GOVERNMENT OF LENINGRAD REGION IN THE FIELD OF POPULATION RADIATION PROTECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Gorbanev

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The article gives the main interaction trends of the Administration of Rospotrebnadzor in the Leningrad Region and the Government of Leningrad Region regarding issues of regional radiation protection. It reports on comprehensive measures devoted to the limitation of the population exposure from natural irradiation sources, monitoring of territories which suffered from Chernobyl NPP accident and monitoring of the environmental impact of unauthorized dumps and solid municipal waste sites in the Leningrad Region. It presents the basic issues of medical exposure limitation in the Leningrad Region and measures for their solving.

  13. Changes of population trends and mortality patterns in response to the reintroduction of large predators: The case study of African ungulates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grange, Sophie; Owen-Smith, Norman; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Druce, Dave J.; Moleón, Marcos; Mgobozi, Mandisa

    2012-07-01

    Large predators have been reintroduced to an increasing number of protected areas in South Africa. However, the conditions allowing both prey and predator populations to be sustained in enclosed areas are still unclear as there is a lack of understanding of the consequences of such reintroductions for ungulate population dynamics. Variation in lion numbers, two decades after their first release, offered a special opportunity to test the effects of predation pressure on the population dynamics of seven ungulate species in the 960 km2 Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP), South Africa. We used two different approaches to examine predator-prey relationships: the population response of ungulates to predation pressure after accounting for possible confounding factors, and the pattern of ungulate adult mortality observed from carcass records. Rainfall patterns affected observed mortalities of several ungulate species in HiP. Although lion predation accounted for most ungulate mortality, it still had no detectable influence on ungulate population trends and mortality patterns, with one possible exception. This evidence suggests that the lion population had not yet attained the maximum abundance potentially supported by their ungulate prey; but following recent increases in lion numbers it will probably occur soon. It remains uncertain whether a quasi-stable balance will be reached between prey and predator populations, or whether favoured prey species will be depressed towards levels potentially generating oscillatory dynamics in this complex large mammal assemblage. We specifically recommend a continuous monitoring of predator and prey populations in HiP since lions are likely to show more impacts on their prey species in the next years.

  14. Trends in teenage termination of pregnancy and its risk factors: a population-based study in Finland, 1987-2009.

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    Leppälahti, S; Gissler, M; Mentula, M; Heikinheimo, O

    2012-09-01

    What are the current trends in teenage termination of pregnancy (TOP) and its risk factors? The incidence of teenage TOP fluctuated substantially during the study period and the incidence of repeat TOP among adolescents increased markedly in the 2000s. Teenage pregnancy is associated with difficulties in psychological, sexual and overall health. The proportion of teenage pregnancies resulting in termination varies by country and time, but only few countries have reliable statistics on TOPs. This nationwide retrospective register study included all the TOPs (n= 52 968) and deliveries (n= 58 882) in Finland between 1987 and 2009 among girls pregnancy. The cohorts were divided into three subgroups; 13-15- (n= 6087), 16-17- (n= 18 826) and 18-19- (n= 28 055) year-olds. After an initial steady decline, the incidence of teenage TOP increased by 44% between 1993 (8.0/1000) and 2003 (11.5/1000), and thereafter declined by 16% until 2009 (9.7/1000). The incidence was higher in older adolescents, but the trends were alike in all age groups. Early TOPs (performed at teenage TOP seems to rapidly reflect changes in national sexual and reproductive health services and policy. The rising rate of repeat TOP is alarming and may represent a sign of marginalization among these girls. All efforts to maintain a low rate of teenage pregnancy are welcomed.

  15. Population Based Trends in the Incidence of Hospital Admission for the Diagnosis of Hepatorenal Syndrome: 1998–2011

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    Manish Suneja

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives. Hepatorenal syndrome carries a high risk of mortality. Understanding the incidence and mortality trends in hepatorenal syndrome will help inform future studies regarding the safety and efficacy of potential therapeutic interventions. Design and Methods. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. We identified hospitalizations from January 1998–June 2011 with a primary diagnosis of hepatorenal syndrome. To characterize the incidence trends in monthly hepatorenal syndrome hospitalizations, we fit a piecewise linear model with a change point at January 2008. We examined hospital and patient characteristics before and after the change point. Results. Hospital admissions with a diagnosis of hepatorenal syndrome increased markedly between September of 2007 and March of 2008. Comparing patients who were admitted with a diagnosis of hepatorenal syndrome prior to 2008 with those after 2008, we found that length of stay increased while the mortality of patients admitted for hepatorenal syndrome decreased. Conclusion. The revision of the diagnostic criteria for hepatorenal syndrome may have contributed to the increase in the incidence of admissions for hepatorenal syndrome. However, the changes in the principles of hepatorenal syndrome management may have also contributed to the increase in incidence and lower mortality.

  16. Ancestry and Language in the United States: November 1979. Current Population Reports, Special Studies. Series P-23. No. 116.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Michael J.; Sweet, Nancy S.

    Information on the ancestry, languages, and literacy of the U.S. population based on data collected by the Bureau of the Census in 1979 is reported. Items surveyed include ancestry, country of birth of the individual and parents, citizenship, year of immigration, native language, language spoken in the home, ability to speak English, and ability…

  17. Changes in ethnic structure of population in the light of recent trends of migration and natural reproduction

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    Novotný Ladislav

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to assess the impact of migration and natural reproduction of population to the changes in ethnic structure of population by the case study of three multi-ethnic functional urban regions in Slovakia. All three regions are located at the Slovak-Hungarian ethnic border and are characterized by larger proportion of Slovaks and lower proportion of Hungarians in the core than in the ring. The regions were chosen also with intent to provide a sample with various processes of spatial redistribution of population taking place, which are described in the paper. The ethnic structure at the levels of whole regions, their basic components - cores and rings - is introduced briefly. The analyses of changes in the ethnic structure and its relationships with the natural reproduction and migration of population provides interesting results. It was proved that the migration is a driving force in changes of ethnic structure in analysed regions, even though the patterns of natural reproduction behaviors between ethnic Slovaks and Hungarians are traditionally different. Since the most intensive process of spatial redistribution of population is the decentralization from the cores to the rings of the regions driven by migration, the ethnic structure of the rings tends to approximate to that in the cores.

  18. Injuries to Aboriginal populations living on- and off-reserve in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas in British Columbia, Canada: Incidence and trends, 1986-2010

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    Mariana Brussoni

    2016-05-01

    .2. Time trends indicated decreasing disparities, with Aboriginal non-metropolitan populations experiencing the largest declines in injury rates. Conclusions Metropolitan/non-metropolitan residence appears to be a more important predictor than on/off-reserve residence for all injuries and unintentional injuries, and the relationship was even more pronounced for intentional injuries. The persistent disparities highlight the need for culturally sensitive and geographically relevant injury prevention approaches.

  19. Cadmium-related mortality and long-term secular trends in the cadmium body burden of an environmentally exposed population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrot, Tim S; Van Hecke, Etienne; Thijs, Lutgarde; Richart, Tom; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Jin, Yu; Vangronsveld, Jaco; Roels, Harry A; Staessen, Jan A

    2008-12-01

    Few population studies have reported on the long-term changes in the internal cadmium dose and simultaneously occurring mortality. We monitored blood cadmium (BCd), 24-hr urinary cadmium (UCd), and mortality in an environmentally exposed population. Starting from 1985, we followed BCd (until 2003), UCd (until 1996), and mortality (until 2007) among 476 and 480 subjects, randomly recruited from low- exposure areas (LEA) and high-exposure areas (HEA). The last cadmium-producing plant in the HEA closed in 2002. From 1985-1989 to 1991-1996, BCd decreased by 40.3% and 18.9% in the LEA and HEA, respectively (p fashion without threshold.

  20. Arlequin suite ver 3.5: a new series of programs to perform population genetics analyses under Linux and Windows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Excoffier, Laurent; Lischer, Heidi E L

    2010-05-01

    We present here a new version of the Arlequin program available under three different forms: a Windows graphical version (Winarl35), a console version of Arlequin (arlecore), and a specific console version to compute summary statistics (arlsumstat). The command-line versions run under both Linux and Windows. The main innovations of the new version include enhanced outputs in XML format, the possibility to embed graphics displaying computation results directly into output files, and the implementation of a new method to detect loci under selection from genome scans. Command-line versions are designed to handle large series of files, and arlsumstat can be used to generate summary statistics from simulated data sets within an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. Recent demographic trends in the northern borderland between Italy and Slovenia: Stabilization or further redistribution of population?

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    Josipovič Damir

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The contribution presents findings from the research on a constitution of new ethnic identities in Alps-Adriatic region. The key question dealt here with was to which extent the recent demographical processes impact the peripheral, mountainous, and ethnically specific cross-border region between Slovenia and Italy. In lay and professional discourse there is still omnipresent mentality of extinguishing Slovene minority in Italy. Applying various demographical methods the article resolves the demographical processes and quantifies the extent of the local Slovene speakers. The author argues that the recent demographical processes of heavy depopulation tend to stabilize towards stagnation. Depopulation is stronger in the Slovenian part of the region, though the traditional Slovene-speaking areas in Italy aren’t as threatened as the adjacent Friulian areas. New migration trends along with the generally low fertility contribute to changes in traditional dualistic structure and bring refreshment to remote parts of the border region as well.

  2. Shinguards effective in preventing lower leg injuries in football: Population-based trend analyses over 25 years.

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    Vriend, Ingrid; Valkenberg, Huib; Schoots, Wim; Goudswaard, Gert Jan; van der Meulen, Wout J; Backx, Frank J G

    2015-09-01

    The majority of football injuries are caused by trauma to the lower extremities. Shinguards are considered an important measure in preventing lower leg impact abrasions, contusions and fractures. Given these benefits, Fédération Internationale de Football Association introduced the shinguard law in 1990, which made wearing shinguards during matches mandatory. This study evaluated the effect of the introduction of the shinguard law for amateur players in the Netherlands in the 1999/2000-football season on the incidence of lower leg injuries. Time trend analyses on injury data covering 25 years of continuous registration (1986-2010). Data were retrieved from a system that records all emergency department treatments in a random, representative sample of Dutch hospitals. All injuries sustained in football by patients aged 6-65 years were included, except for injuries of the Achilles tendon and Weber fractures. Time trends were analysed with multiple regression analyses; a model was fitted consisting of multiple straight lines, each representing a 5-year period. Patients were predominantly males (92%) and treated for fractures (48%) or abrasions/contusions (52%) to the lower leg. The incidence of lower leg football injuries decreased significantly following the introduction of the shinguard law (1996-2000: -20%; 2001-2005: -25%), whereas the incidence of all other football injuries did not. This effect was more prominent at weekends/match days. No gender differences were found. The results significantly show a preventive effect of the shinguard law underlining the relevance of rule changes as a preventive measure and wearing shinguards during both matches and training sessions. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Trends and predictors of cesarean birth in Singapore, 2005-2014: A population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Claudia; Pang, Deanette; Aris, Izzuddin M; Teo, Wei Ting; Li, Sarah Weiling; Biswas, Arijit; Yong, Eu Leong; Chong, Yap Seng; Tan, Kelvin; Kramer, Michael S

    2018-02-17

    Rates of cesarean birth have continued to rise in many high-income countries. We examined the temporal trends and predictors of cesarean birth in Singapore. Linked hospitalization and Birth Registry data were used to examine all live births to Singaporean citizens and permanent residents between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2014 (n = 342 932 births). We calculated cesarean rates and age-adjusted average annual percent change (AAPC) in those rates and used sequential multivariable regression modeling to assess the contribution of changes in predictors to the change in cesarean rates over time. The overall cesarean rate in Singapore rose from 32.2% in 2005 to 37.4% in 2014. Among singleton, cephalic, term pregnancies, the two major predictions of cesarean were nulliparity and previous cesarean, each accounting for just over one-third of all cesareans. Higher AAPC was observed in nulliparous women of Indian ethnicity (0.74% [95% confidence interval 0.68-0.80]) compared with Chinese (0.62% [0.60-0.65]) or Malay women (0.63% [0.59-0.68]), and in women who delivered in private hospitals (0.62% [0.60-0.64]) compared with those delivered under subsidized care in public hospitals (0.58% [0.52-0.63]). Parity and education had the largest influences on cesarean birth trend (attenuation of AAPC from 0.62% [0.59-0.66] to 0.39% [0.38-0.40] after adjustment). Cesarean birth has continued to rise at a steady rate in Singapore. Strategies to curb this temporal increase include avoidance of medically unnecessary primary cesarean and attempts at trial of labor and vaginal delivery among women with a history of prior cesarean. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Trends in glaucoma surgery incidence and reimbursement for physician services in the Medicare population from 1995 to 1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paikal, David; Yu, Fei; Coleman, Anne L

    2002-07-01

    To better understand the relationship between glaucoma management and economic incentives, we examined the volume and the reimbursement of argon laser trabeculoplasty (ALT) and trabeculectomy in a 5% random sample of the Medicare population from 1995 to 1998. Retrospective cohort study. Subjects in a 5% random sample of the Medicare population who had ALT and trabeculectomy from 1995 to 1998. Using the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) Physician/Supplier Part-B files for a 5% random sample of the Medicare population, we identified all subjects who had ALT and trabeculectomy from 1995 to 1998. Descriptive summaries (the number of surgeries and the mean and the standard deviation of reimbursement per surgery) were calculated for each year. Analysis of variance was used to test for differences in reimbursement per surgery across years. Chi-square tests were used to assess any associations between the changing numbers of ALTs and trabeculectomies over the study period and both age and race. We assessed the number of ALTs and trabeculectomies and the allowed charges for each surgery in the 5% random sample of the Medicare population from 1995 to 1998. The volume of both ALTs and trabeculectomies declined during the study period. Reimbursement per surgery for both ALT and trabeculectomy varied significantly across years (P management of glaucoma, among other factors.

  5. Trend Analysis of Substance Abuse Treatment Admissions in New Orleans From 2000-2012: A Population-Based Comparison Pre- and Post-Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuler, Monique N; Wallington, Sherrie F; Qualls-Hampton, Raquel Y; Podesta, Arwen E; Suzuki, Sumihiro

    2016-10-14

    Substance abuse treatment following a natural disaster is often met with challenges. If treatment is available, facilities may be unequipped to service an influx of patients or provide specialized care for unique populations. This paper seeks to evaluate trends in substance abuse treatment over time and assess changes pre- and post-Hurricane Katrina. Substance abuse treatment admission data (N = 42,678) from New Orleans, Louisiana, for years 2000 through 2012 were obtained from the Treatment Episode Data Set. Admissions were examined to evaluate demographic, socioeconomic, psychiatric, and criminality trends in substance abuse treatment and assess changes following Hurricane Katrina. Treatment admissions have decreased from 2000 to 2012. About one in five admissions had a psychiatric illness in addition to a substance abuse problem. A staggering 76% of admissions with a psychiatric illness were referred by the criminal justice system post-Katrina as compared to pre-Katrina. Rates of alcohol and marijuana admissions have remained stable from 2000 to 2012. Cocaine/crack admissions have declined and admissions who abused heroin have increased over time. Treatment admissions stabilized following Hurricane Katrina; however, since 2009, they have begun to decline. Targeted exploration of factors affecting admission to treatment in New Orleans with populations such as the homeless, those with a psychiatric illness in addition to a substance abuse problem, and those referred by the criminal justice system is essential. The results of this study assist in identifying variations in substance abuse treatment characteristics for those admitted to treatment in New Orleans.

  6. Trends and Determinants of Prescription Drug Use during Pregnancy and Postpartum in British Columbia, 2002-2011: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

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    Kate Smolina

    Full Text Available To describe trends, patterns, and determinants of prescription drug use during pregnancy and postpartum.This is a retrospective, population-based study of all women who gave birth between January 2002 and 31 December 2011 in British Columbia, Canada. Study population consisted of 225,973 women who had 322,219 pregnancies. We examined administrative datasets containing person-specific information on filled prescriptions, hospitalizations, and medical services. Main outcome measures were filled prescriptions during pregnancy and postpartum. We used logistic regressions to examine associations between prescription drug use and maternal characteristics.Approximately two thirds of women filled a prescription during pregnancy, increasing from 60% in 2002 to 66% in 2011. The proportion of pregnant women using medicines in all three trimesters of pregnancy increased from 20% in 2002 to 27% in 2011. Use of four or more different types of prescription drug during at least one trimester increased from 8.4% in 2002 to 11.7% in 2011. Higher BMI, smoking during pregnancy, age under 25, carrying multiples, and being diagnosed with a chronic condition all significantly increased the odds of prescription drug use during pregnancy.The observed increase in the number of prescriptions and number of different drugs being dispensed suggests a trend in prescribing practices with potentially important implications for mothers, their neonates, and caregivers. Monitoring of prescribing practices and further research into the safety of most commonly prescribed medications is crucial in better understanding risks and benefits to the fetus and the mother.

  7. Trends in HIV testing and associated factors among men in South Africa: evidence from 2005, 2008 and 2012 national population-based household surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makusha, T; Mabaso, M; Richter, L; Desmond, C; Jooste, S; Simbayi, L

    2017-02-01

    In Sub-Saharan African countries, including South Africa, uptake of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing among men remains a major challenge. Few studies have explored HIV testing uptake among men and factors that influence their testing behaviours. This article explores trends in HIV testing uptake and associated factors among men aged 15 years and older in South Africa using national HIV population-based household surveys conducted in 2005, 2008 and 2012. A multistage cross-sectional design was used in the three nationally representative household-based surveys. P-trend Chi-squared statistic was used to analyze changes in HIV testing in relation to demographic factors, and HIV-related risk behaviours across the three surveys. Univariate