The changing world of gas exploration present and future trends; Les evolutions dans le secteur de l'exploration du gaz tendances actuelles et futures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duval, B.C. [Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), 92 - Rueil-Malmaison (France); Maisonnier, G. [Gedigaz, France (France)

2000-07-01

The industry has, in the past decade, added much more gas than it has produced, resulting in a 36% increase in world reserves. Therefore the resource base is no longer considered a serious constraint in satisfying the industry's needs. Under such circumstances, one may ask the question: is exploration for gas still needed? One way in which we may deal with this major issue would be to analyse the changes that occur in the upstream world, in relation to technology, the general business context and industry's strategies and their potential impact on future trends. Dramatic advancements in exploration technologies have helped to improve success ratios and prediction of fluid, and to open new prospective areas, while also reducing costs. From a State point of view, exploration constitutes a long term objective to contend with natural gas consumption growth without depending too much on imports, or to develop resources for exports. From a company perception, exploration appears as a necessity not only for future growth but also for geographical or geopolitical opportunities. Gas reserve additions will come increasingly from a combination of exploration and production deals. The numerous new opportunities created by a more open business environment will facilitate such developments. (authors)

Evolution of Requirements and Assumptions for Future Exploration Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Molly; Sargusingh, Miriam; Perry, Jay

2017-01-01

NASA programs are maturing technologies, systems, and architectures to enabling future exploration missions. To increase fidelity as technologies mature, developers must make assumptions that represent the requirements of a future program. Multiple efforts have begun to define these requirements, including team internal assumptions, planning system integration for early demonstrations, and discussions between international partners planning future collaborations. For many detailed life support system requirements, existing NASA documents set limits of acceptable values, but a future vehicle may be constrained in other ways, and select a limited range of conditions. Other requirements are effectively set by interfaces or operations, and may be different for the same technology depending on whether the hard-ware is a demonstration system on the International Space Station, or a critical component of a future vehicle. This paper highlights key assumptions representing potential life support requirements and explanations of the driving scenarios, constraints, or other issues that drive them.

High Pressure Oxygen Generation for Future Exploration Missions, Phase II

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed innovation is the development of a cathode feed electrolysis cell stack capable of generating 3600 psi oxygen at a relevant scale for future exploration...

Exploration and production environment. Preserving the future our responsibility; Exploration et production environnement. Preserver l'avenir: notre responsabilite

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-07-01

This document presents the Total Group commitments to manage natural resources in a rational way, to preserve biodiversity for future generations and protect the environment. It contains the health, safety, environment and quality charter of Total, the 12 exploration and production health, safety and environment rules and the exploration and production environmental policy. (A.L.B.)

Future Forests Webinar Series, Webinar Proceedings and Summary: Ongoing Research and Management Responses to the Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak

Science.gov (United States)

M. Matonis; R. Hubbard; K. Gebert; B. Hahn; C. Regan

2014-01-01

The Future Forest Webinar Series facilitated dialogue between scientists and managers about the challenges and opportunities created by the mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemic. The series consisted of six webinar facilitated by the USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, the Northern and Rocky Mountain Regions, and the Colorado Forest Restoration Institute. The series...

ePatient Conference Explores Future of Personalized Medicine | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

Science.gov (United States)

... page please turn Javascript on. ePatient Conference Explores Future of Personalized Medicine Past Issues / Spring - Summer 2010 Table of Contents ... your healthcare provider communicate better in the digital future? What is personalized medicine? Some of the nation's top health researchers, computer ...

Exploration and production environment. Preserving the future our responsibility; Exploration et production environnement. Preserver l'avenir: notre responsabilite

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-07-01

This document presents the Total Group commitments to manage natural resources in a rational way, to preserve biodiversity for future generations and protect the environment. It contains the health, safety, environment and quality charter of Total, the 12 exploration and production health, safety and environment rules and the exploration and production environmental policy. (A.L.B.)

Marshall Space Flight Center - Launching the Future of Science and Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Shivers, Alisa; Shivers, Herbert

2010-01-01

Topics include: NASA Centers around the country, launching a legacy (Explorer I), Marshall's continuing role in space exploration, MSFC history, lifting from Earth, our next mission STS 133, Space Shuttle propulsion systems, Space Shuttle facts, Space Shuttle and the International Space Station, technologies/materials originally developed for the space program, astronauts come from all over, potential future missions and example technologies, significant accomplishments, living and working in space, understanding our world, understanding worlds beyond, from exploration to innovation, inspiring the next generation, space economy, from exploration to opportunity, new program assignments, NASA's role in education, and images from deep space including a composite of a galaxy with a black hole, Sagittarius A, Pillars of Creation, and an ultra deep field

International cooperation in planetary exploration - Past success and future prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Rosendhal, Jeffrey D.

1987-01-01

A review is given of the ways in which the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has participated in international efforts to explore the solar system. Past examples of successful international cooperative programs are described. Prospects for future cooperative efforts are discussed with emphasis placed on current events, issues, and trends which are likely to affect possibilities for cooperation over the next 5 to 10 years. Key factors which will play a major role in shaping future prospects for cooperation include the move towards balancing the budget in the United States and the impact of the Challenger accident on the NASA program.

Future Computing Technology (2/3)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2015-01-01

Computing of the future will be affected by a number of fundamental technologies in development today, many of which are already on the way to becoming commercialized. In this series of lectures, we will discuss hardware and software development that will become mainstream in the timeframe of a few years and how they will shape or change the computing landscape - commercial and personal alike. Topics range from processor and memory aspects, programming models and the limits of artificial intelligence, up to end-user interaction with wearables or e-textiles. We discuss the impact of these technologies on the art of programming, the data centres of the future and daily life. On the second day of the Future Computing Technology series, we will talk about ubiquitous computing. From smart watches through mobile devices to virtual reality, computing devices surround us, and innovative new technologies are introduces every day. We will briefly explore how this propagation might continue, how computers can take ove...

The Role of Cis-Lunar Space in Future Global Space Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Bobskill, Marianne R.; Lupisella, Mark L.

2012-01-01

Cis-lunar space offers affordable near-term opportunities to help pave the way for future global human exploration of deep space, acting as a bridge between present missions and future deep space missions. While missions in cis-lunar space have value unto themselves, they can also play an important role in enabling and reducing risk for future human missions to the Moon, Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs), Mars, and other deep space destinations. The Cis-Lunar Destination Team of NASA's Human Spaceflight Architecture Team (HAT) has been analyzing cis-lunar destination activities and developing notional missions (or "destination Design Reference Missions" [DRMs]) for cis-lunar locations to inform roadmap and architecture development, transportation and destination elements definition, operations, and strategic knowledge gaps. The cis-lunar domain is defined as that area of deep space under the gravitational influence of the earth-moon system. This includes a set of earth-centered orbital locations in low earth orbit (LEO), geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO), highly elliptical and high earth orbits (HEO), earth-moon libration or "Lagrange" points (E-ML1 through E-ML5, and in particular, E-ML1 and E-ML2), and low lunar orbit (LLO). To help explore this large possibility space, we developed a set of high level cis-lunar mission concepts in the form of a large mission tree, defined primarily by mission duration, pre-deployment, type of mission, and location. The mission tree has provided an overall analytical context and has helped in developing more detailed design reference missions that are then intended to inform capabilities, operations, and architectures. With the mission tree as context, we will describe two destination DRMs to LEO and GEO, based on present human space exploration architectural considerations, as well as our recent work on defining mission activities that could be conducted with an EML1 or EML2 facility, the latter of which will be an emphasis of this

An Advanced Neutron Spectrometer for Future Manned Exploration Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Christl, Mark; Apple, Jeffrey A.; Cox, Mark D.; Dietz, Kurtis L.; Dobson, Christopher C.; Gibson, Brian F.; Howard, David E.; Jackson, Amanda C.; Kayatin, Mathew J.; Kuznetsov, Evgeny N.;

Exploring Our World with Dr. Ryan: an adventure-science video series

Science.gov (United States)

vachon, R. W.; Kramer, N.

2011-12-01

Science is embedded in all that we do and experience. It brings perspective to the simplest and most complex systems: A rocket breaking free of the Earth's gravitational field to single stream recycling of waste. Everything! To many of us, these concepts are acknowledged as a part of our lives, but remain at arm's length because we don't understand the fundamental principles that make them all possible. However individuals, armed with information, make wise decisions about their lives and the world that we share. The adults of tomorrow are quickly growing up, which makes effective science outreach to youth all the more important, even urgent. In this presentation we shall describe the infrastructure behind the exciting Exploring Our World with Dr. Ryan series. These stirring, web-based videos (~4 min) are designed to educate audiences (with a target age of 8-12 years old) about various aspects of the world in which we live. Currently we are working on a Climate Change sub-series. The well-produced films are designed to be placed into the hands of educators but are appealing to youth outside of the classroom. The short vignettes are concise descriptions of fascinating and timely scientific topics, making them ideal multimodal teaching tools, introductions to topics of discussion and alternative perspectives to textbook-based curriculum. The series leverages enthusiastic hosting, otherwise inaccessible scientific expertise and authentic illustrations of experimentation. Additionally, each episode is strengthened by a carefully conceived work-flow that not only emphasizes the desired content but encourages critical thinking, models scientific methodology, humanizes scientists and celebrates collaborations that lead to clearer understandings of the Big Picture. Robust social networking is the capsicum to the series successful outreach. Example episode: http://vimeo.com/22397380

A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C. H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.

2018-01-01

Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions

Sandia National Laboratories Strategic Context Workshop Series 2017: National Security Futures for Strategic Thinking.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roll, Elizabeth [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Aamir, Munaf Syed [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bull, Diana L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Deland, Sharon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Haddal, Chad [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Foley, John T. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harwell, Amber Suzanne [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Otis, Monique [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Wendell [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bawden, Michael Greet Shander [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Craft, Richard L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kistin, David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Jeffrey B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); McNicol, Bradley Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vannoni, Michael G. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Trost, Lawrence C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tsao, Jeffrey Y. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Weaver, Karla [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2018-01-01

In August 2017, Sandia convened five workshops to explore the future of advanced technologies and global peace and security through the lenses of deterrence, information, innovation, nonproliferation, and population and Earth systems.

Planetary Science Training for NASA's Astronauts: Preparing for Future Human Planetary Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Bleacher, J. E.; Evans, C. A.; Graff, T. G.; Young, K. E.; Zeigler, R.

2017-02-01

Astronauts selected in 2017 and in future years will carry out in situ planetary science research during exploration of the solar system. Training to enable this goal is underway and is flexible to accommodate an evolving planetary science vision.

A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. P. Guillod

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM. Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i a historical baseline (1900–2006, (ii five near-future scenarios (2020–2049 and (iii five far-future scenarios (2070–2099. The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months and shorter-duration high precipitation (1–30 days, the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09 but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vyas, A. D. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Patel, D. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bertram, K. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2013-02-01

Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.

2013-03-01

Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Future Exploration of Titan and Enceladus

Science.gov (United States)

Matson, D. L.; Coustenis, A.; Lunine, J.; Lebreton, J.; Reh, K.; Beauchamp, P.

2009-05-01

The future exploration of Titan and Enceladus has become very important for the planetary community. The study conducted last year of the Titan Saturn System Mission (TSSM) led to an announcement in which ESA and NASA prioritized future OPF missions, stating that TSSM is planned after EJSM (for details see http://www.lpi.usra.edu/opag/). TSSM consists of a TSSM Orbiter that would carry two in situ elements: the Titan Montgolfiere hot air balloon and the Titan Lake Lander. The mission could launch in the 2023-2025 timeframe on a trajectory to arrive ~9 years later for a 4-year mission in the Saturn system. Soon after arrival at Saturn, the montgolfiere would be delivered to Titan to begin its mission of airborne, scientific observations of Titan from an altitude of about 10 km. The montgolfiere would have a Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) power system and would be designed to last at least 6-12 months in Titan's atmosphere. With the predicted winds and weather, that would be sufficient to circumnavigate the globe! On a subsequent fly-by, the TSSM orbiter would release the Lake Lander on a trajectory toward Titan for a targeted entry. It would descend through the atmosphere making scientific measurements, much like Huygens did, and then land and float on one of Titan's seas. This would be its oceanographic phase, making a physical and chemical assessment of the sea. The Lake Lander would operate 8-10 hours until its batteries become depleted. Following the delivery of the in situ elements, the TSSM orbiter would explore the Saturn system via a 2-year tour that includes in situ sampling of Enceladus' plumes as well as Titan flybys. After the Saturn system tour, the TSSM orbiter would enter orbit around Titan for a global survey phase. Synergistic and coordinated observations would be carried out between the TSSM orbiter and the in situ elements. The scientific requirements were developed by the international TSSM Joint Science Definition

Lecture series LHC: An exciting physics future for CERN

CERN Multimedia

2001-01-01

All of us at CERN are working towards the same goal, a better understanding of the structure of matter, the forces which control it and thus a clearer picture of the behaviour of the entire Universe. Therefore I believe it is very important that everyone has a clear picture of the fascinating programme of physics that we can look forward to with the LHC and I have asked Professor Egil Lillestøl to give a short series of talks on this theme. Professor Lillestøl has long experience in simplifying the most complex concepts in physics and I know his talks will be both instructive and entertaining. The lectures will be targetted at people who have a scientific, engineering or technical background but are not specialists in the field of particle physics. Anyone who is curious about CERN physics and its future will find something of interest. The first lecture will be given on 31st January at 16.00 in the Main Auditorium. I encourage you all to attend. See also the lecture abstract and sche...

Exploring Fourier Series and Gibbs Phenomenon Using Mathematica

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Jonaki B.

2011-01-01

This article describes a laboratory module on Fourier series and Gibbs phenomenon which was undertaken by 32 Year 12 students. It shows how the use of CAS played the role of an "amplifier" by making higher level mathematical concepts accessible to students of year 12. Using Mathematica students were able to visualise Fourier series of…

Developing futures for agriculture in the Netherlands: a systematic exploration of the strategic value of foresight

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Meulen, Barend; de Wilt, J.; Rutten, H.

2003-01-01

Science and Technology Foresight (SFT) is an interactive and systematic exploration of future dynamics of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying and supporting viable strategies and actions for stakeholders. In comparison to futures studies and forecasting, the

Developing futures for agriculture in the Netherlands: a systematic exploration of the strategic value of foresight

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Meulen, Barend; de Wilt, J.; Rutten, H.

2003-01-01

Science and Technology Foresight (STF) is an interactive and systematic exploration of future dynamics of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying and supporting viable strategies and actions for stakeholders. In comparison to futures studies and forecasting, the

SMART-1 Results and Lessons for Future Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Foing, B. H.

2009-04-01

We summarise SMART-1 lunar highlights relevant for future lunar exploration. SMART-1 has been useful in the preparation of Selene Kaguya, the Indian lunar mission Chandrayaan-1, Chinese Chang'E 1 , the US Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, LCROSS, and subsequent lunar landers (Google Lunar X-prize, International Lunar Network, Moon-NEXT, cargo and manned landers). SMART-1 is contributing to prepare the next steps for exploration: survey of resources, search for ice, monitoring polar illumination, and mapping of sites for potential landings, international robotic villages and for future human activities and lunar bases. Overview of SMART-1 mission and payload: SMART-1 is the first in the programme of ESA's Small Missions for Advanced Research and Technology [1,2,3]. Its first objective has been achieved to demonstrate Solar Electric Primary Propulsion (SEP) for future Cornerstones (such as Bepi-Colombo) and to test new technologies for spacecraft and instruments. The SMART-1 spacecraft has been launched on 27 Sept. 2003, as an Ariane-5 auxiliary passenger and injected in GTO Geostationary Transfer Orbit. The SMART-1 spacecraft reached on 15 March 2005 a lunar orbit 400-3000 km for a nominal science period of six months, with 1 year extension until impact on 3 September 2006. SMART-1 science payload, with a total mass of some 19 kg, featured many innovative instruments and advanced technologies [1], with a miniaturised high-resolution camera (AMIE) for lunar surface imaging, a near-infrared point-spectrometer (SIR) for lunar mineralogy investigation, and a very compact X-ray spectrometer (D-CIXS) [4-6] for fluorescence spectroscopy and imagery of the Moon's sur-face elemental composition. The payload also included two plasma experiments: SPEDE (Spacecraft Potential, Electron and Dust Experiment) and EPDP (Electric propulsion diagnostic Package), an experiment (KaTE) that demonstrated deep-space telemetry and telecommand communications in the X and Ka-bands, a radio

Exploring the Effects of Changes in Future Time Perspective and Perceived Instrumentality on Graded Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Eren, Altay

2009-01-01

Introduction: This study aimed to explore the possible changes in the Future Time Perspective (FTP) and Perceived Instrumentality (PI) over time as long as one academic semester, as well as to explore whether those changes in FTP and PI explained students' Graded Performance (GP) with regard to a specific course; educational psychology. Method: A…

Time series modeling in traffic safety research.

Science.gov (United States)

Lavrenz, Steven M; Vlahogianni, Eleni I; Gkritza, Konstantina; Ke, Yue

2018-08-01

The use of statistical models for analyzing traffic safety (crash) data has been well-established. However, time series techniques have traditionally been underrepresented in the corresponding literature, due to challenges in data collection, along with a limited knowledge of proper methodology. In recent years, new types of high-resolution traffic safety data, especially in measuring driver behavior, have made time series modeling techniques an increasingly salient topic of study. Yet there remains a dearth of information to guide analysts in their use. This paper provides an overview of the state of the art in using time series models in traffic safety research, and discusses some of the fundamental techniques and considerations in classic time series modeling. It also presents ongoing and future opportunities for expanding the use of time series models, and explores newer modeling techniques, including computational intelligence models, which hold promise in effectively handling ever-larger data sets. The information contained herein is meant to guide safety researchers in understanding this broad area of transportation data analysis, and provide a framework for understanding safety trends that can influence policy-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-12-01

This report is the first in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. More specifically, the EFS is designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in all major economic sectors as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of widespread electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe.

Commentary on ``Future directions: Building technologies and design tools``

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Quadrel, R.W.

1992-08-10

This paper presents a number of interesting and thought-provoking scenarios about the future use of advanced technology in the design and operation of commercial buildings. I will express my reactions in the following series of short paragraphs. These thoughts will, I hope, raise some new questions and offer fruitful directions for further exploration.

Science Enabling Exploration: Using LRO to Prepare for Future Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, S.; Jolliff, B. L.; Stopar, J.; Speyerer, E. J.; Petro, N. E.

2016-12-01

Discoveries from LRO have transformed our understanding of the Moon (e. g., [1],[2],[3]), but LRO's instruments were originally designed to collect the measurements required to enable future lunar surface exploration [3]. A high lunar exploration priority is the collection of new samples and their return to Earth for comprehensive analysis [4]. The importance of sample return from South Pole-Aitken is well-established [Jolliff et al., this conference], but there are numerous other locations where sample return will yield important advances in planetary science. Using new LRO data, we have defined an achievability envelope based on the physical characteristics of successful lunar landing sites [5]. Those results were then used to define 1km x 1km regions of interest where sample return could be executed, including: the basalt flows in Oceanus Procellarum (22.1N, 53.9W), the Gruithuisen Domes (36.1N, 39.7W), the Dewar cryptomare (2.2S, 166.8E), the Aristarchus pyroclastic deposit (24.8N, 48.5W), the Sulpicius Gallus formation (19.9N, 10.3E), the Sinus Aestuum pyroclastic deposit (5.2N, 9.2W), the Compton-Belkovich volcanic complex (61.5N, 99.9E), the Ina Irregular Mare Patch (18.7N, 5.3E), and the Marius Hills volcanic complex (13.4N, 55.9W). All of these locations represent safe landing sites where sample returns are needed to advance our understanding of the evolution of the lunar interior and the timescales of lunar volcanism ([6], [7]). If LRO is still active when any future mission reaches the surface, LRO's capability to rapidly place surface activities into broader geologic context will provide operational advantages. LRO remains a unique strategic asset that continues to address the needs of future missions. References: [1] M. S. Robinson et al., Icarus, 252, 229-235, 2015. [2] S. E. Braden et al. Nat. Geosci., 7, 11, 787-791, 2014. [3] J. W. Keller et al. Icarus, 273, 2-24, 2016. [4] LEAG, Lunar Exploration Roadmap, 2011. [5] S. J. Lawrence et al., LPI

Reports and recommendations from COSPAR Planetary Exploration Committee (PEX) & International Lunar Exploration Working Group (ILEWG)

Science.gov (United States)

Ehrenfreund, Pascale; Foing, Bernard

2014-05-01

In response to the growing importance of space exploration, the objectives of the COSPAR Panel on Exploration (PEX) are to provide high quality, independent science input to support the development of a global space exploration program while working to safeguard the scientific assets of solar system bodies. PEX engages with COSPAR Commissions and Panels, science foundations, IAA, IAF, UN bodies, and IISL to support in particular national and international space exploration working groups and the new era of planetary exploration. COSPAR's input, as gathered by PEX, is intended to express the consensus view of the international scientific community and should ultimately provide a series of guidelines to support future space exploration activities and cooperative efforts, leading to outstanding scientific discoveries, opportunities for innovation, strategic partnerships, technology progression, and inspiration for people of all ages and cultures worldwide. We shall focus on the lunar exploration aspects, where the COSPAR PEX is building on previous COSPAR, ILEWG and community conferences. An updated COSPAR PEX report is published and available online (Ehrenfreund P. et al, COSPAR planetary exploration panel report, http://www.gwu.edu/~spi/assets/COSPAR_PEX2012.pdf). We celebrate 20 years after the 1st International Conference on Exploration and Utilisation of the Moon at Beatenberg in June 1994. The International Lunar Exploration Working Group (ILEWG) was established the year after in April 1995 at an EGS meeting in Hamburg, Germany. As established in its charter, this working group reports to COSPAR and is charged with developing an international strategy for the exploration of the Moon (http://sci.esa.int/ilewg/ ). It discusses coordination between missions, and a road map for future international lunar exploration and utilisation. It fosters information exchange or potential and real future lunar robotic and human missions, as well as for new scientific and

Witnessing the Future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elgaard Jensen, Torben

2007-01-01

and the problematic work life elsewhere. Finally, it notes that the manager's strategy enacts a timeworld characterised by dramatic epochal changes, which is radically different from the more stable and knowable time-world that is enacted in ordinary scientific discourses. Key words: actor-network theory, witnessing......Abstract: The paper explores the phenomenon of witnessing the future through a case study of how a Scandinavian new economy firm managed to persuade a number of business journalists that it was "the future". It describes the procedures and rhetorical strategies that the manager deployed to turn...... the journalists into witnesses. It compares the manager's strategy to other cases of effective witnessing in courtrooms and in science. It concludes that the manager's persuasiveness is derived from his ability to articulate a series of pointed contrasts between the attractive working life within the firm...

Down-to-Earth Benefits of Space Exploration: Past, Present, Future

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, Benjamin

2005-01-01

A ventricular device that helps a weakened heart keep pumping while awaiting a transplant. A rescue tool for extracting victims from dangerous situations such as car wrecks. A video analysis tool used to investigate the bombing at the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta. A sound-differentiation tool for safer air traffic control. A refrigerator that run without electricity or batteries. These are just a few of the spin-offs of NASA technology that have benefited society in recent years. Now, as NASA sets its vision on space exploration, particularly of the moon and Mars, even more benefits to society are possible. This expansion of societal benefits is tied to a new emphasis on technology infusion or spin-in. NASA is seeking partners with industry, universities, and other government laboratories to help the Agency address its specific space exploration needs in five areas: (1) advanced studies, concepts, and tools; (2) advanced materials; (3) communications, computing, electronics, and imaging; (4) software, intelligent systems, and modeling; and (5) power, propulsion, and chemical systems. These spin-in partnerships will offer benefits to U.S. economic development as well as new products for the global market. As a complement to these spin-in benefits, NASA also is examining the possible future spin-outs of the innovations related to its new space exploration mission. A matrix that charts NASA's needs against various business sectors is being developed to fully understand the implications for society and industry of spin-in and spin-out. This matrix already has been used to help guide NASA s efforts to secure spin-in partnerships. This paper presents examples of NASA spin-offs, discusses NASA s present spin-in/spin-out projects for pursuing partnerships, and considers some of the future societal benefits to be reaped from these partnerships. This paper will complement the proposed paper by Frank Schowengerdt on the Innovative Partnerships Program structure and how to work

Addressing Human System Risks to Future Space Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Paloski, W. H.; Francisco, D. R.; Davis, J. R.

2015-01-01

NASA is contemplating future human exploration missions to destinations beyond low Earth orbit, including the Moon, deep-space asteroids, and Mars. While we have learned much about protecting crew health and performance during orbital space flight over the past half-century, the challenges of these future missions far exceed those within our current experience base. To ensure success in these missions, we have developed a Human System Risk Board (HSRB) to identify, quantify, and develop mitigation plans for the extraordinary risks associated with each potential mission scenario. The HSRB comprises research, technology, and operations experts in medicine, physiology, psychology, human factors, radiation, toxicology, microbiology, pharmacology, and food sciences. Methods: Owing to the wide range of potential mission characteristics, we first identified the hazards to human health and performance common to all exploration missions: altered gravity, isolation/confinement, increased radiation, distance from Earth, and hostile/closed environment. Each hazard leads to a set of risks to crew health and/or performance. For example the radiation hazard leads to risks of acute radiation syndrome, central nervous system dysfunction, soft tissue degeneration, and carcinogenesis. Some of these risks (e.g., acute radiation syndrome) could affect crew health or performance during the mission, while others (e.g., carcinogenesis) would more likely affect the crewmember well after the mission ends. We next defined a set of design reference missions (DRM) that would span the range of exploration missions currently under consideration. In addition to standard (6-month) and long-duration (1-year) missions in low Earth orbit (LEO), these DRM include deep space sortie missions of 1 month duration, lunar orbital and landing missions of 1 year duration, deep space journey and asteroid landing missions of 1 year duration, and Mars orbital and landing missions of 3 years duration. We then

Anaesthesia in austere environments: literature review and considerations for future space exploration missions.

Science.gov (United States)

Komorowski, Matthieu; Fleming, Sarah; Mawkin, Mala; Hinkelbein, Jochen

2018-01-01

Future space exploration missions will take humans far beyond low Earth orbit and require complete crew autonomy. The ability to provide anaesthesia will be important given the expected risk of severe medical events requiring surgery. Knowledge and experience of such procedures during space missions is currently extremely limited. Austere and isolated environments (such as polar bases or submarines) have been used extensively as test beds for spaceflight to probe hazards, train crews, develop clinical protocols and countermeasures for prospective space missions. We have conducted a literature review on anaesthesia in austere environments relevant to distant space missions. In each setting, we assessed how the problems related to the provision of anaesthesia (e.g., medical kit and skills) are dealt with or prepared for. We analysed how these factors could be applied to the unique environment of a space exploration mission. The delivery of anaesthesia will be complicated by many factors including space-induced physiological changes and limitations in skills and equipment. The basic principles of a safe anaesthesia in an austere environment (appropriate training, presence of minimal safety and monitoring equipment, etc.) can be extended to the context of a space exploration mission. Skills redundancy is an important safety factor, and basic competency in anaesthesia should be part of the skillset of several crewmembers. The literature suggests that safe and effective anaesthesia could be achieved by a physician during future space exploration missions. In a life-or-limb situation, non-physicians may be able to conduct anaesthetic procedures, including simplified general anaesthesia.

Class Explorations in Space: From the Blackboard and History to the Outdoors and Future

Science.gov (United States)

Cavicchi, Elizabeth

2011-11-01

Our everyday activities occur so seamlessly in the space around us as to leave us unawares of space, its properties, and our use of it. What might we notice, wonder about and learn through interacting with space exploratively? My seminar class took on that question as an opening for personal and group experiences during this semester. In the process, they observe space locally and in the sky, read historical works of science involving space, and invent and construct forms in space. All these actions arise responsively, as we respond to: physical materials and space; historical resources; our seminar participants, and future learners. Checks, revisions and further developments -- on our findings, geometrical constructions, shared or personal inferences---come about observationally and collaboratively. I teach this seminar as an expression of the research pedagogy of critical exploration, developed by Eleanor Duckworth from the work of Jean Piaget, B"arbel Inhelder and the Elementary Science Study. This practice applies the quest for understanding of a researcher to spontaneous interactions evolving within a classroom. The teacher supports students in satisfying and developing their curiosities, which often results in exploring the subject matter by routes that are novel to both teacher and student. As my students ``mess about'' with geometry, string and chalk at the blackboard, in their notebooks, and in response to propositions in Euclid's Elements, they continually imagine further novel venues for using geometry to explore space. Where might their explorations go in the future? I invite you to hear from them directly!

Exploring the Future Potential of Jute in Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanzidur Rahman

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The study assesses the future potential of the jute sector in Bangladesh by examining its growth performance, international competitiveness, profitability, and production efficiency using national time-series data of over the period 1973–2013 and farm survey data from 289 farmers from two major jute growing areas of Bangladesh. Results revealed that the jute sector has experienced substantial growth in area, production, productivity, prices, and exports. However, productivity has stagnated during the latter 10-year period (2004–2013, while it grew at a rate of 1.3% per annum (p.a. during the first 31-year period (1973–2003. Only traditional jute production is globally competitive, although financial profitability of white jute is relatively higher (benefit cost ratio = 1.24 and 1.17, respectively. Land, labor, and irrigation are the main productivity drivers for jute. The mean production efficiency of jute is estimated at 75% indicating substantial scope to improve yield by eliminating inefficiency. Marginal farmers are relatively inefficient. Policy implications include investments in research and development, irrigation, and tenurial reform and export protection for white jute in order to revive the sector and boost export earnings.

International trends in health science librarianship: Part 6 Central Europe series.

Science.gov (United States)

Viragos, Marta

2013-06-01

This is the 6th in a series of articles exploring international trends in health science librarianship with a focus on Central Europe in the first decade of the 21st century. The invited authors are from Hungry, Poland and Czech Republic. Future issues will track trends the Middle East and then the Far East. JM. © 2013 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2013 Health Libraries Group.

Robonaut 2 and Watson: Cognitive Dexterity for Future Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Badger, Julia M.; Strawser, Philip; Farrell, Logan; Goza, S. Michael; Claunch, Charles A.; Chancey, Raphael; Potapinski, Russell

2018-01-01

Future exploration missions will dictate a level of autonomy never before experienced in human spaceflight. Mission plans involving the uncrewed phases of complex human spacecraft in deep space will require a coordinated autonomous capability to be able to maintain the spacecraft when ground control is not available. One promising direction involves embedding intelligence into the system design both through the employment of state-of-the-art system engineering principles as well as through the creation of a cognitive network between a smart spacecraft or habitat and embodiments of cognitive agents. The work described here details efforts to integrate IBM's Watson and other cognitive computing services into NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC)'s Robonaut 2 (R2) anthropomorphic robot. This paper also discusses future directions this work will take. A cognitive spacecraft management system that is able to seamlessly collect data from subsystems, determine corrective actions, and provide commands to enable those actions is the end goal. These commands could be to embedded spacecraft systems or to a set of robotic assets that are tied into the cognitive system. An exciting collaboration with Woodside provides a promising Earth-bound testing analog, as controlling and maintaining not normally manned off-shore platforms have similar constraints to the space missions described.

Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

2007-01-01

Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

Commentary on Future directions: Building technologies and design tools''

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Quadrel, R.W.

1992-08-10

This paper presents a number of interesting and thought-provoking scenarios about the future use of advanced technology in the design and operation of commercial buildings. I will express my reactions in the following series of short paragraphs. These thoughts will, I hope, raise some new questions and offer fruitful directions for further exploration.

Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario Workshop Series Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leslie Park Ovard; Thomas H. Ulrich; David J. Muth Jr.; J. Richard Hess; Steven Thomas; Bryce Stokes

2009-12-01

To get a collective sense of the impact of research and development (R&D) on biomass resource availability, and to determine the feasibility that yields higher than baseline assumptions used for past assessments could be achieved to support U.S. energy independence, an alternate “High-Yield Scenario” (HYS) concept was presented to industry experts at a series of workshops held in December 2009. The workshops explored future production of corn/agricultural crop residues, herbaceous energy crops (HECs), and woody energy crops (WECs). This executive summary reports the findings of that workshop.

Demystifying Managed Futures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hurst,, Brian; Hua Ooi, Yao; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2013-01-01

We show that the returns of Managed Futures funds and CTAs can be explained by time series momentum strategies and we discuss the economic intuition behind these strategies. Time series momentum strategies produce large correlations and high R-squares with Managed Futures indices and individual m...... of implementation issues relevant to time series momentum strategies, including risk management, risk allocation across asset classes and trend horizons, portfolio rebalancing frequency, transaction costs, and fees....

Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Vervoort, Joost; Palazzo, Amanda; Islam, Shahnila; Lord, Steven; Helfgott, Ariella; Havlík, Petr; Peou, Rathana; Sassen, Marieke; Veeger, Marieke; van Soesbergen, Arnout; Arnell, Andrew P.; Stuch, Benjamin; Arslan, Aslihan; Lipper, Leslie

Abstract Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use

Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel

Science.gov (United States)

Leauthaud, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Grippa, M.; Kergoat, L.; Velluet, C.; Guichard, F.; Mougin, E.; Chelbi, S.; Sultan, B.

2015-06-01

Rainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and cultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of Central Sahel. In a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and predicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. Yet, it remains challenging to project future climatic conditions in West Africa since there is no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations coming from climate models. The Sahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years that can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water cycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. The objective of this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to highly variable climatic regimes in Central Sahel using historical climate records and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a vegetation model that, when combined, simulated the Sahelian water, energy and vegetation cycles. To do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term climate series in Niamey, Republic of Niger, in which three precipitation regimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for the driest period compared to the wettest period. Two temperature scenarios (+2 and +4 °C) consistent with future warming scenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual future 20-year climate time series. Simulations by the two coupled models forced by these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and its components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases in transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with highest precipitation. Such climatic changes also strongly impacted soil temperature and moisture. This study illustrates the potential of using the strong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand potential future climate variations.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melaina, M. W.; Heath, G.; Sandor, D.; Steward, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Warner, E.; Webster, K. W.

2013-04-01

Achieving the Department of Energy target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 depends on transportation-related strategies combining technology innovation, market adoption, and changes in consumer behavior. This study examines expanding low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure to achieve deep GHG emissions reductions, with an emphasis on fuel production facilities and retail components serving light-duty vehicles. Three distinct low-carbon fuel supply scenarios are examined: Portfolio: Successful deployment of a range of advanced vehicle and fuel technologies; Combustion: Market dominance by hybridized internal combustion engine vehicles fueled by advanced biofuels and natural gas; Electrification: Market dominance by electric drive vehicles in the LDV sector, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles, that are fueled by low-carbon electricity and hydrogen. A range of possible low-carbon fuel demand outcomes are explored in terms of the scale and scope of infrastructure expansion requirements and evaluated based on fuel costs, energy resource utilization, fuel production infrastructure expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion for LDVs. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored transportation-related strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence.

Science goals and mission concept for the future exploration of Titan and Enceladus

OpenAIRE

Tobie, G.; Teanby, N.A.; Coustenis, A.; Jaumann, R.; Raulin, F; Schmidt, J.; Carrasco, N.; Coates, A.J.; Cordier, D.; de Kok, Remco; Geppert, W.D.; Lebreton, J.-P.; Lefevre, A.; Livengood, T.A.; Mandt, K.E.

2014-01-01

Abstract Saturn?s moons, Titan and Enceladus, are two of the Solar System?s most enigmatic bodies and are prime targets for future space exploration. Titan provides an analogue for many processes relevant to the Earth, more generally to outer Solar System bodies, and a growing host of newly discovered icy exoplanets. Processes represented include atmospheric dynamics, complex organic chemistry, meteorological cycles (with methane as a working fluid), astrobiology, surface liquids and lakes, g...

The emotional labour of nursing 1: exploring the concept.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Benjamin

This is the first in a two-part series on emotional labour, a trained and individualised response to help manage the emotions of patients. It reviews relevant literature to define and explore this concept in nursing, and considers examples of emotional labour and makes recommendations for future policy and research. Part 2 of this research, to be published in next week's issue, examines routine aspects of emotional labour in nursing and the barriers to recognising this aspect of work.

Automation &robotics for future Mars exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Schulte, W.; von Richter, A.; Bertrand, R.

2003-04-01

Automation and Robotics (A&R) are currently considered as a key technology for Mars exploration. initiatives in this field aim at developing new A&R systems and technologies for planetary surface exploration. Kayser-Threde led the study AROMA (Automation &Robotics for Human Mars Exploration) under ESA contract in order to define a reference architecture of A&R elements in support of a human Mars exploration program. One of the goals was to define new developments and to maintain the competitiveness of European industry within this field. We present a summary of the A&R study in respect to a particular system: The Autonomous Research Island (ARI). In the Mars exploration scenario initially a robotic outpost system lands at pre-selected sites in order to search for life forms and water and to analyze the surface, geology and atmosphere. A&R systems, i.e. rovers and autonomous instrument packages, perform a number of missions with scientific and technology development objectives on the surface of Mars as part of preparations for a human exploration mission. In the Robotic Outpost Phase ARI is conceived as an automated lander which can perform in-situ analysis. It consists of a service module and a micro-rover system for local investigations. Such a system is already under investigation and development in other TRP activities. The micro-rover system provides local mobility for in-situ scientific investigations at a given landing or deployment site. In the long run ARI supports also human Mars missions. An astronaut crew would travel larger distances in a pressurized rover on Mars. Whenever interesting features on the surface are identified, the crew would interrupt the travel and perform local investigations. In order to save crew time ARI could be deployed by the astronauts to perform time-consuming investigations as for example in-situ geochemistry analysis of rocks/soil. Later, the crew could recover the research island for refurbishment and deployment at another

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Vehicle Technology Deployment Pathways: An Examination of Timing and Investment Constraints

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plotkin, S.; Stephens, T.; McManus, W.

2013-03-01

Scenarios of new vehicle technology deployment serve various purposes; some will seek to establish plausibility. This report proposes two reality checks for scenarios: (1) implications of manufacturing constraints on timing of vehicle deployment and (2) investment decisions required to bring new vehicle technologies to market. An estimated timeline of 12 to more than 22 years from initial market introduction to saturation is supported by historical examples and based on the product development process. Researchers also consider the series of investment decisions to develop and build the vehicles and their associated fueling infrastructure. A proposed decision tree analysis structure could be used to systematically examine investors' decisions and the potential outcomes, including consideration of cash flow and return on investment. This method requires data or assumptions about capital cost, variable cost, revenue, timing, and probability of success/failure, and would result in a detailed consideration of the value proposition of large investments and long lead times. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Vehicle Technology Deployment Pathways. An Examination of Timing and Investment Constraints

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plotkin, Steve [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Stephens, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); McManus, Walter [Oakland Univ., Rochester, MI (United States)

2013-03-01

Scenarios of new vehicle technology deployment serve various purposes; some will seek to establish plausibility. This report proposes two reality checks for scenarios: (1) implications of manufacturing constraints on timing of vehicle deployment and (2) investment decisions required to bring new vehicle technologies to market. An estimated timeline of 12 to more than 22 years from initial market introduction to saturation is supported by historical examples and based on the product development process. Researchers also consider the series of investment decisions to develop and build the vehicles and their associated fueling infrastructure. A proposed decision tree analysis structure could be used to systematically examine investors' decisions and the potential outcomes, including consideration of cash flow and return on investment. This method requires data or assumptions about capital cost, variable cost, revenue, timing, and probability of success/failure, and would result in a detailed consideration of the value proposition of large investments and long lead times. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Time Series Modelling of Syphilis Incidence in China from 2005 to 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xingyu; Zhang, Tao; Pei, Jiao; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiaosong; Medrano-Gracia, Pau

2016-01-01

The infection rate of syphilis in China has increased dramatically in recent decades, becoming a serious public health concern. Early prediction of syphilis is therefore of great importance for heath planning and management. In this paper, we analyzed surveillance time series data for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis in mainland China from 2005 to 2012. Seasonality and long-term trend were explored with decomposition methods. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to fit a univariate time series model of syphilis incidence. A separate multi-variable time series for each syphilis type was also tested using an autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX). The syphilis incidence rates have increased three-fold from 2005 to 2012. All syphilis time series showed strong seasonality and increasing long-term trend. Both ARIMA and ARIMAX models fitted and estimated syphilis incidence well. All univariate time series showed highest goodness-of-fit results with the ARIMA(0,0,1)×(0,1,1) model. Time series analysis was an effective tool for modelling the historical and future incidence of syphilis in China. The ARIMAX model showed superior performance than the ARIMA model for the modelling of syphilis incidence. Time series correlations existed between the models for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis.

The Future of STEM Curriculum and Instructional Design: A Research and Development Agenda for Learning Designers. Report of a Workshop Series

Science.gov (United States)

Center for the Study of Mathematics Curriculum, 2012

2012-01-01

In 2009-10 a series of Workshops was organized to focus on STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) learning design for young students and adolescents. The objective was to provide visionary leadership to the education community by: (a) identifying and analyzing the needs and opportunities for future STEM curriculum development and…

Explaining Infinite Series--An Exploration of Students' Images

Science.gov (United States)

Champney, Danielle Dawn

2013-01-01

This study uses self-generated representations (SGR)--images produced in the act of explaining--as a means of uncovering what university calculus students understand about infinite series convergence. It makes use of student teaching episodes, in which students were asked to explain to a peer what that student might have missed had they been…

Three-Dimensional Surface Geophysical Exploration of the 200-Series Tanks at the 241-C Tank Farm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crook, N. [HydroGEOPHYSICS, Inc., Tuscon, AZ (United States); McNeill, M. [HydroGEOPHYSICS, Inc., Tuscon, AZ (United States); Dunham, Ralph [Columbia Energy and Environmental Services, Inc., Richland, WA (United States); Glaser, Danney R. [Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC, Richland, WA (United States)

2014-02-26

A surface geophysical exploration (SGE) survey using direct current electrical resistivity was conducted within the C Tank Farm in the vicinity of the 200-Series tanks at the Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. This survey was the second successful SGE survey to utilize the Geotection^TM-180 Resistivity Monitoring System which facilitated a much larger survey size and faster data acquisition rate. The primary objective of the C Tank Farm SGE survey was to provide geophysical data and subsurface imaging results to support the Phase 2 RCRA Facility Investigation, as outlined in the Phase 2 RCRA Facility Investigation/Corrective Measures work plan RPP-PLAN-39114.

Three-Dimensional Surface Geophysical Exploration of the 200-Series Tanks at the 241-C Tank Farm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crook, N.; McNeill, M.; Dunham, Ralph; Glaser, Danney R.

2014-01-01

A surface geophysical exploration (SGE) survey using direct current electrical resistivity was conducted within the C Tank Farm in the vicinity of the 200-Series tanks at the Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. This survey was the second successful SGE survey to utilize the Geotection(TM)-180 Resistivity Monitoring System which facilitated a much larger survey size and faster data acquisition rate. The primary objective of the C Tank Farm SGE survey was to provide geophysical data and subsurface imaging results to support the Phase 2 RCRA Facility Investigation, as outlined in the Phase 2 RCRA Facility Investigation / Corrective Measures work plan RPP-PLAN-39114

All the wonder that would be exploring past notions of the future

CERN Document Server

Webb, Stephen

2017-01-01

It has been argued that science fiction (SF) gives a kind of weather forecast – not the telling of a fortune but rather the rough feeling of what the future might be like. The intention in this book is to consider some of these bygone forecasts made by SF and to use this as a prism through which to view current developments in science and technology. In each of the ten main chapters - dealing in turn with antigravity, space travel, aliens, time travel, the nature of reality, invisibility, robots, means of transportation, augmentation of the human body, and, last but not least, mad scientists - common assumptions once made by the SF community about how the future would turn out are compared with our modern understanding of various scientific phenomena and, in some cases, with the industrial scaling of computational and technological breakthroughs. A further intention is to explain how the predictions and expectations of SF were rooted in the scientific orthodoxy of their day, and use this to explore how our ...

Outreach for Cassini Huyghens mission and future Saturn and Titan exploration: From the Antikythera Mechanism to the TSSM mission

Science.gov (United States)

Moussas, Xenophon; Bampasidis, Georgios; Coustenis, Athena; Solomonidou, Anezina

2010-05-01

These days Outreach is an activity tightly related to success in science. The public with its great interest to space and astronomy in general, the solar system exploration and Saturn and Titan in particular, loves the scientific outcome of Cassini and Huygens. This love of the public gives a lot, as its known interest to space, persuades politicians and policy makers to support space and future Saturn and Titan explorations. We use the scientific results from Cassini and Huyghens together with a mosaic from ancient science concerning the history of solar system exploration, such as the oldest known complex astronomical device, the Antikyhtera Mechanism, in outreach activities to ensure future missions and continuous support to present ones. A future mission to the Saturnian System focusing on exotic Titan will broaden people's interest not only to Physics and Astronomy, but to Mechanics, Technology and even Philosophy as well, since, obviously, the roots of the vast contribution of Space Science and Astronomy to the contemporary society can be traced back to the first astronomers of Antiquity. As an example we use the Antikythera Mechanism, a favourite astronomical device for the public, which is the first geared astronomical device ever, constructed that combines the spirit of the ancient Astronomy and scientific accuracy. It is common belief that Astronomy and Astrophysics is a perfect tool to easily involve people in Science, as the public is always interested in space subjects, captivated by the beauty and the mystery of the Universe. Years after the successful entry, descent and landing of the Huygens probe on Titan's surface, the outstanding achievements of the Cassini-Huygens mission enhance the outreach potential of Space Science. Titan is an earth-like world, embedded in a dense nitrogen atmospheric envelop and a surface carved by rivers, mountains, dunes and lakes, its exploration will certainly empower the perspective of the society for space activities

New Moon water, exploration, and future habitation

CERN Document Server

Crotts, Arlin

2014-01-01

Explore Earth's closest neighbor, the Moon, in this fascinating and timely book and discover what we should expect from this seemingly familiar but strange, new frontier. What startling discoveries are being uncovered on the Moon? What will these tell us about our place in the Universe? How can exploring the Moon benefit development on Earth? Discover the role of the Moon in Earth's past and present; read about the lunar environment and how it could be made more habitable for humans; consider whether continued exploration of the Moon is justified; and view rare Apollo-era photos and film still

A Course in Time Series Analysis

CERN Document Server

Peña, Daniel; Tsay, Ruey S

2011-01-01

New statistical methods and future directions of research in time series A Course in Time Series Analysis demonstrates how to build time series models for univariate and multivariate time series data. It brings together material previously available only in the professional literature and presents a unified view of the most advanced procedures available for time series model building. The authors begin with basic concepts in univariate time series, providing an up-to-date presentation of ARIMA models, including the Kalman filter, outlier analysis, automatic methods for building ARIMA models, a

Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: Science Operations Lessons Learned, Planning, and Equipment Capabilities for Long Range, Long Duration Traverses

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffman, Stephen J.

2012-01-01

The purpose for this workshop can be summed up by the question: Are there relevant analogs to planetary (meaning the Moon and Mars) to be found in polar exploration on Earth? The answer in my opinion is yes or else there would be no reason for this workshop. However, I think some background information would be useful to provide a context for my opinion on this matter. As all of you are probably aware, NASA has been set on a path that, in its current form, will eventually lead to putting human crews on the surface of the Moon and Mars for extended (months to years) in duration. For the past 50 V 60 years, starting not long after the end of World War II, exploration of the Antarctic has accumulated a significant body of experience that is highly analogous to our anticipated activities on the Moon and Mars. This relevant experience base includes: h Long duration (1 year and 2 year) continuous deployments by single crews, h Established a substantial outpost with a single deployment event to support these crews, h Carried out long distance (100 to 1000 kilometer) traverses, with and without intermediate support h Equipment and processes evolved based on lessons learned h International cooperative missions This is not a new or original thought; many people within NASA, including the most recent two NASA Administrators, have commented on the recognizable parallels between exploration in the Antarctic and on the Moon or Mars. But given that level of recognition, relatively little has been done, that I am aware of, to encourage these two exploration communities to collaborate in a significant way. [Slide 4] I will return to NASA s plans and the parallels with Antarctic traverses in a moment, but I want to spend a moment to explain the objective of this workshop and the anticipated products. We have two full days set aside for this workshop. This first day will be taken up with a series of presentations prepared by individuals with experience that extends back as far as the

Time Series Modelling of Syphilis Incidence in China from 2005 to 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xingyu; Zhang, Tao; Pei, Jiao; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiaosong; Medrano-Gracia, Pau

2016-01-01

Background The infection rate of syphilis in China has increased dramatically in recent decades, becoming a serious public health concern. Early prediction of syphilis is therefore of great importance for heath planning and management. Methods In this paper, we analyzed surveillance time series data for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis in mainland China from 2005 to 2012. Seasonality and long-term trend were explored with decomposition methods. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to fit a univariate time series model of syphilis incidence. A separate multi-variable time series for each syphilis type was also tested using an autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX). Results The syphilis incidence rates have increased three-fold from 2005 to 2012. All syphilis time series showed strong seasonality and increasing long-term trend. Both ARIMA and ARIMAX models fitted and estimated syphilis incidence well. All univariate time series showed highest goodness-of-fit results with the ARIMA(0,0,1)×(0,1,1) model. Conclusion Time series analysis was an effective tool for modelling the historical and future incidence of syphilis in China. The ARIMAX model showed superior performance than the ARIMA model for the modelling of syphilis incidence. Time series correlations existed between the models for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis. PMID:26901682

Planetary Protection Issues in the Human Exploration of Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Criswell, Marvin E.; Race, M. S.; Rummel, J. D.; Baker, A.

2005-01-01

This workshop report, long delayed, is the first 21st century contribution to what will likely be a series of reports examining the effects of human exploration on the overall scientific study of Mars. The considerations of human-associated microbial contamination were last studied in a 1990 workshop ("Planetary Protection Issues and Future Mars Missions," NASA CP-10086, 1991), but the timing of that workshop allowed neither a careful examination of the full range of issues, nor an appreciation for the Mars that has been revealed by the Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Pathfinder missions. Future workshops will also have the advantage of Mars Odyssey, the Mars Exploration Rover missions, and ESA's Mars Express, but the Pingree Park workshop reported here had both the NCR's (1992) concern that "Missions carrying humans to Mars will contaminate the planet" and over a decade of careful study of human exploration objectives to guide them and to reconcile. A daunting challenge, and one that is not going to be simple (as the working title of this meeting, "When Ecologies Collide?" might suggest), it is clear that the planetary protection issues will have to be addressed to enable human explorers to safely and competently extend out knowledge about Mars, and its potential as a home for life whether martian or human.

Self-defining future projections: exploring the identity function of thinking about the future.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Lardi, Claudia; Van der Linden, Martial

2012-01-01

The act of projecting oneself into meaningful future events may significantly contribute to a person's sense of self and identity. Yet if the role of memories, in particular self-defining memories (SDMs), in grounding the self is now well established, the identity function of anticipated future events has received comparatively little attention. This article introduces the construct of self-defining future projection (SDFP) to address this issue. Two studies show that people can readily identify significant future events that they frequently think about and that convey core information about who they are as individuals. Furthermore, a person's particular style of constructing SDMs is similarly manifested in SDFPs, suggesting that both types of events can be used to ground the self. Notably, people who display a stronger tendency to extract meaning from their past experiences also reflect more about the potential implications of imagined future events. The results further demonstrate that SDMs and SDFPs both give rise to a strong sense of personal continuity over time and are meaningfully related to self-esteem. Together these findings lend support to the idea that a person's sense of self and identity is in part nourished by the anticipation of significant future events.

Case series of ante-grade biliary stenting: An option during bile duct exploration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qaiser Jalal

Full Text Available Background: Managing choledochotomy after bile duct clearance is an ongoing debate. T-tube insertion is not without complication and morbidity, requires significant post-operative care. Primary closure alone can result in a high pressure biliary system and bile leak. The placement of an ante-grade stent through the choledochotomy prior to primary closure is an option for ensuring biliary drainage after bile duct exploration. We reviewed our series of open bile duct explorations, where an ante-grade stent was placed when managing choledochotomy. Methods: Patients who had ante-grade stent placement, all performed by same senior hepatobiliary surgeon, were identified retrospectively. Case note review was used to gather demographic, complication, length of stay, post-operative clinic visits and readmission data. Results: 22 (M:F, 7:15 patients with a median age of 64 years (22–82. The indication for surgical stone clearance was failed ERCP in 20.2 patients were not suitable for ERCP. The median post-operative stay was 8 days (379 with the abdominal drain remaining for a median of 4 days (137. 16 (73% patients had no complications. 4 (18% had bile leaks, 5 (22% wound infections, 1 (5% cholangitis and 1 (5% pancreatitis. All complications were Clavien-Dindo grade 3 or less. Conclusion: In situations where primary CBD closure is not safe due to concern over high pressure in the biliary tree the placement of ante-grade stent may be preferred to T-tube placement. Keywords: Choledocholithiasis, Ante-grade stenting, Choledochotomy

Exploring Accessibility Scenarios for 2020 in Relation with Future ICT Trends on Assistive Technology and Accessibility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adamantios Koumpis

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we are going to present a set of 5 future scenarios that were developed within the eAccessibility2020 study. The study aims to explore and analyse the referred relationships between the emerging ICT landscape, in the societal and economic context and the development and provision of assistive technologies (AT and e-Accessibility, within a perspective of 10 years. The scenarios were developed after an initial trend analysis that the study team conducted based on data gathering. The scenarios were developed based on a methodology which defined a set of guides for scenario development and a set of visions for the future of eAccessibility.

In-Space Propulsion Technology Products for NASA's Future Science and Exploration Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, David J.; Pencil, Eric; Peterson, Todd; Dankanich, John; Munk, Michelle M.

2011-01-01

Since 2001, the In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) project has been developing and delivering in-space propulsion technologies that will enable or enhance NASA robotic science missions. These in-space propulsion technologies are applicable, and potentially enabling, for future NASA flagship and sample return missions currently being considered, as well as having broad applicability to future competed mission solicitations. The high-temperature Advanced Material Bipropellant Rocket (AMBR) engine providing higher performance for lower cost was completed in 2009. Two other ISPT technologies are nearing completion of their technology development phase: 1) NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) ion propulsion system, a 0.6-7 kW throttle-able gridded ion system; and 2) Aerocapture technology development with investments in a family of thermal protection system (TPS) materials and structures; guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) models of blunt-body rigid aeroshells; aerothermal effect models: and atmospheric models for Earth, Titan, Mars and Venus. This paper provides status of the technology development, applicability, and availability of in-space propulsion technologies that have recently completed their technology development and will be ready for infusion into NASA s Discovery, New Frontiers, Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Flagship, and Exploration technology demonstration missions

Historical Perspectives and Future Needs in the Development of the Soil Series Concept

Science.gov (United States)

Beaudette, Dylan E.; Brevik, Eric C.; Indorante, Samuel J.

2016-04-01

The soil series concept is an ever-evolving understanding of soil profile observations, their connection to the landscape, and functional limits on the range in characteristics that affect management. Historically, the soil series has played a pivotal role in the development of soil-landscape theory, modern soil survey methods, and concise delivery of soils information to the end-user-- in other words, soil series is the palette from which soil survey reports are crafted. Over the last 20 years the soil series has received considerable criticism as a means of soil information organization (soil survey development) and delivery (end-user application of soil survey data), with increasing pressure (internal and external) to retire the soil series. We propose that a modern re-examination of soil series information could help address several of the long-standing critiques of soil survey: consistency across survey vintage and political divisions and more robust estimates of soil properties and associated uncertainty. A new library of soil series data would include classic narratives describing morphology and management, quantitative descriptions of soil properties and their ranges, graphical depiction of the relationships between associated soil series, block diagrams illustrating soil-landscape models, maps of series distribution, and a probabilistic representation of a "typical" soil profile. These data would be derived from re-correlation of existing morphologic and characterization data informed by modern statistical methods and regional expertise.

Exploration-Related Research on the International Space Station: Connecting Science Results to the Design of Future Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.; Robinson, Julie A.; Sawin, Charles F.; Ahlf, Peter R.

2005-01-01

In January, 2004, the US President announced a vision for space exploration, and charged NASA with utilizing the International Space Station (ISS) for research and technology targeted at supporting the US space exploration goals. This paper describes: 1) what we have learned from the first four years of research on ISS relative to the exploration mission, 2) the on-going research being conducted in this regard, 3) our current understanding of the major exploration mission risks that the ISS can be used to address, and 4) current progress in realigning NASA s research portfolio for ISS to support exploration missions. Specifically, we discuss the focus of research on solving the perplexing problems of maintaining human health on long-duration missions, and the development of countermeasures to protect humans from the space environment, enabling long duration exploration missions. The interchange between mission design and research needs is dynamic, where design decisions influence the type of research needed, and results of research influence design decisions. The fundamental challenge to science on ISS is completing experiments that answer key questions in time to shape design decisions for future exploration. In this context, exploration-relevant research must do more than be conceptually connected to design decisions-it must become a part of the mission design process.

Time Series Momentum

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moskowitz, Tobias J.; Ooi, Yao Hua; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2012-01-01

We document significant “time series momentum” in equity index, currency, commodity, and bond futures for each of the 58 liquid instruments we consider. We find persistence in returns for one to 12 months that partially reverses over longer horizons, consistent with sentiment theories of initial...... under-reaction and delayed over-reaction. A diversified portfolio of time series momentum strategies across all asset classes delivers substantial abnormal returns with little exposure to standard asset pricing factors and performs best during extreme markets. Examining the trading activities...

Exploring the Future of Home Economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Henderson, Carter

1980-01-01

The direction home economists are taking toward the future is examined from the standpoints of the role of homemaker, the consumer culture, the part that media plays, advertising, economics, lifestyles, medical care, skill development, and community life. (CT)

Shamanic Healing for Veterans with PTSD: A Case Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Wahbeh, Helané; Shainsky, Lauri; Weaver, Angela; Engels-Smith, Jan

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a serious health concern. Current evidence-based treatments for PTSD are efficacious; however, they are not appropriate or tolerated by everyone who needs them. Alternative treatment approaches are needed. Shamanic healing is one such therapy that may potentially be beneficial but no systematic research has been conducted on it for PTSD. The objectives of the case series are to (1) develop a structured replicable shamanic treatment plan for veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD); (2) collect preliminary data on PTSD-related outcomes, and (3) explore the feasibility and potential for adverse events of the plan. Case series. Clinical. Veterans with PTSD. Shamanic healing. PTSD symptoms, quality of life, and piritual wellness. A semi-structured shamanic healing protocol was created with the following components: rapport building, power animal retrieval, extraction, compassionate spirit release, curse unraveling, soul retrieval, forgiveness/cord-cutting, aspect maturing/soul rematrixing, and divination. Six veterans enrolled in the study (mean age = 49.3 ± 13.1). Qualitative descriptions of the participants, their histories, and effects from the intervention are reported. Preliminary data was collected on PTSD-related outcomes. The protocol was found feasible and acceptable and recommendations for its future use are suggested. Future research is warranted and needed to evaluate the efficacy of shamanic healing as a potential therapy for veterans with PTSD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Ultimate Destination: Choice of Interplanetary Exploration Path can define Future of Interstellar Spaceflight

Science.gov (United States)

Silin, D. V.

Manned interstellar spaceflight is facing multiple challenges of great magnitude; among them are extremely large distances and the lack of known habitable planets other than Earth. Many of these challenges are applicable to manned space exploration within the Solar System to the same or lesser degree. If these issues are resolved on an interplanetary scale, better position to pursue interstellar exploration can be reached. However, very little progress (if any) was achieved in manned space exploration since the end of Space Race. There is no lack of proposed missions, but all of them require considerable technological and financial efforts to implement while yielding no tangible benefits that would justify their costs. To overcome this obstacle highest priority in future space exploration plans should be assigned to the creation of added value in outer space. This goal can be reached if reductions in space transportation, construction and maintenance of space-based structures costs are achieved. In order to achieve these requirements several key technologies have to be mastered, such as near-Earth object mining, space- based manufacturing, agriculture and structure assembly. To keep cost and difficulty under control next exploration steps can be limited to nearby destinations such as geostationary orbit, low lunar orbit, Moon surface and Sun-Earth L1 vicinity. Completion of such a program will create a solid foundation for further exploration and colonization of the Solar System, solve common challenges of interplanetary and interstellar spaceflight and create useful results for the majority of human population. Another important result is that perception of suitable destinations for interstellar missions will change significantly. If it becomes possible to create habitable and self-sufficient artificial environments in the nearby interplanetary space, Earth-like habitable planets will be no longer required to expand beyond our Solar System. Large fraction of the

Job Outlook Information: Careers for the Future. InfoSeries.

Science.gov (United States)

Indiana Career and Postsecondary Advancement Center, Bloomington.

Job outlook information forecasts the growth and decline of jobs in the near future--usually for a 10-year period. The purpose of this information is to help individuals understand where future employment opportunities may occur, but the individual must also consider his/her skills and interests and the level of education needed to accomplish…

Exploring future scenarios for the global supply chain of tuna

Science.gov (United States)

Mullon, C.; Guillotreau, P.; Galbraith, E. D.; Fortilus, J.; Chaboud, C.; Bopp, L.; Aumont, O.; Kaplan, D.

2017-06-01

The abundance of tuna, an important top predator that ranges throughout tropical and subtropical oceans, is now largely determined by fishing activity. Fishing activity, in turn, is determined by the interaction of fish availability, fishing capacity, fishing costs and global markets for tuna products. In the face of overfishing, the continued sustainable supply of tuna is likely to require improved global governance, that would benefit from modeling frameworks capable of integrating market forces with the availability of fish in order to consider alternative future projections. Here we describe such a modeling framework, in which we develop several simple, contrasting scenarios for the development of the tuna supply chain in order to illustrate the utility of the approach for global evaluation of management strategies for tuna and other complex, stock-structured fisheries. The model includes multiple national and multi-national fishing fleets, canneries and fresh/frozen markets, and connects these to global consumers using a network of flows. The model is calibrated using recent data on fish catch, cannery and fresh/frozen production, and consumption. Scenarios explore the control on future outcomes in the global tuna fishery by representing, in a simple way, the effects of (1) climate change, (2) changes in the global demand for tuna, and (3) changes in the access to fishing grounds (marine reserves). The results emphasize the potential importance of increasing demand in provoking a global collapse, and suggest that controlling tuna production by limiting technical efficiency is a potential countermeasure. Finally we discuss the outcomes in terms of potential extensions of the scenario approach allowed by this global network model of the tuna supply chain.

Radiation Environments for Future Human Exploration Throughout the Solar System.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwadron, N.; Gorby, M.; Linker, J.; Riley, P.; Torok, T.; Downs, C.; Spence, H. E.; Desai, M. I.; Mikic, Z.; Joyce, C. J.; Kozarev, K. A.; Townsend, L. W.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.

2016-12-01

Acute space radiation hazards pose one of the most serious risks to future human and robotic exploration. The ability to predict when and where large events will occur is necessary in order to mitigate their hazards. The largest events are usually associated with complex sunspot groups (also known as active regions) that harbor strong, stressed magnetic fields. Highly energetic protons accelerated very low in the corona by the passage of coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven compressions or shocks and from flares travel near the speed of light, arriving at Earth minutes after the eruptive event. Whether these particles actually reach Earth, the Moon, Mars (or any other point) depends on their transport in the interplanetary magnetic field and their magnetic connection to the shock. Recent contemporaneous observations during the largest events in almost a decade show the unique longitudinal distributions of this ionizing radiation broadly distributed from sources near the Sun and yet highly isolated during the passage of CME shocks. Over the last decade, we have observed space weather events as the solar wind exhibits extremely low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing states that have never been observed during the space age. The highly abnormal solar activity during cycles 23 and 24 has caused the longest solar minimum in over 80 years and continues into the unusually small solar maximum of cycle 24. As a result of the remarkably weak solar activity, we have also observed the highest fluxes of galactic cosmic rays in the space age and relatively small particle radiation events. We have used observations from LRO/CRaTER to examine the implications of these highly unusual solar conditions for human space exploration throughout the inner solar system. While these conditions are not a show-stopper for long-duration missions (e.g., to the Moon, an asteroid, or Mars), galactic cosmic ray radiation remains a significant and worsening factor that limits

Buildings of the Future Scoping Study: A Framework for Vision Development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Na [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Goins, John D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-02-01

The Buildings of the Future Scoping Study, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Office, seeks to develop a vision for what U.S. mainstream commercial and residential buildings could become in 100 years. This effort is not intended to predict the future or develop a specific building design solution. Rather, it will explore future building attributes and offer possible pathways of future development. Whether we achieve a more sustainable built environment depends not just on technologies themselves, but on how effectively we envision the future and integrate these technologies in a balanced way that generates economic, social, and environmental value. A clear, compelling vision of future buildings will attract the right strategies, inspire innovation, and motivate action. This project will create a cross-disciplinary forum of thought leaders to share their views. The collective views will be integrated into a future building vision and published in September 2015. This report presents a research framework for the vision development effort based on a literature survey and gap analysis. This document has four objectives. First, it defines the project scope. Next, it identifies gaps in the existing visions and goals for buildings and discusses the possible reasons why some visions did not work out as hoped. Third, it proposes a framework to address those gaps in the vision development. Finally, it presents a plan for a series of panel discussions and interviews to explore a vision that mitigates problems with past building paradigms while addressing key areas that will affect buildings going forward.

Predicting critical transitions in dynamical systems from time series using nonstationary probability density modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwasniok, Frank

2013-11-01

A time series analysis method for predicting the probability density of a dynamical system is proposed. A nonstationary parametric model of the probability density is estimated from data within a maximum likelihood framework and then extrapolated to forecast the future probability density and explore the system for critical transitions or tipping points. A full systematic account of parameter uncertainty is taken. The technique is generic, independent of the underlying dynamics of the system. The method is verified on simulated data and then applied to prediction of Arctic sea-ice extent.

The impacts of wind technology advancement on future global energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Xiaochun; Ma, Chun; Song, Xia; Zhou, Yuyu; Chen, Weiping

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Integrated assessment model perform a series of scenarios of technology advances. • Explore the potential roles of wind energy technology advance in global energy. • Technology advance impacts on energy consumption and global low carbon market. • Technology advance influences on global energy security and stability. - Abstract: To avoid additional global warming and environmental damage, energy systems need to rely on the use of low carbon technologies like wind energy. However, supply uncertainties, production costs, and energy security are the main factors considered by the global economies when reshaping their energy systems. Here, we explore the potential roles of wind energy technology advancement in future global electricity generations, costs, and energy security. We use an integrated assessment model performing a series of technology advancement scenarios. The results show that double of the capital cost reduction causes 40% of generation increase and 10% of cost ​decrease on average in the long-term global wind electricity market. Today’s technology advancement could bring us the benefit of increasing electricity production in the future 40–50 years, and decreasing electricity cost in the future 90–100 years. The technology advancement of wind energy can help to keep global energy security and stability. An aggressive development and deployment of wind energy could in the long-term avoid 1/3 of gas and 1/28 of coal burned, and keep 1/2 biomass and 1/20 nuclear fuel saved from the global electricity system. The key is that wind resources are free and carbon-free. The results of this study are useful in broad coverage ranges from innovative technologies and systems of renewable energy to the economic industrial and domestic use of energy with no or minor impact on the environment.

Renewable Electricity Futures: Exploration of a U.S. Grid with 80% Renewable Electricity

Science.gov (United States)

Mai, Trieu

2013-04-01

Renewable Electricity Futures is an initial investigation of the extent to which renewable energy supply can meet the electricity demands of the contiguous United States over the next several decades. This study explores the implications and challenges of very high renewable electricity generation levels: from 30% up to 90% (focusing on 80%) of all U.S. electricity generation from renewable technologies in 2050. At such high levels of renewable electricity penetration, the unique characteristics of some renewable resources, specifically geographical distribution and variability and un-certainty in output, pose challenges to the operability of the nation's electric system. The study focuses on key technical implications of this environment from a national perspective, exploring whether the U.S. power system can supply electricity to meet customer demand on an hourly basis with high levels of renewable electricity, including variable wind and solar generation. The study also identifies some of the potential economic, environmental, and social implications of deploying and integrating high levels of renewable electricity in the U.S. The full report and associated supporting information is available at: http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/refutures/.

CE-4 Mission and Future Journey to Lunar

Science.gov (United States)

Zou, Yongliao; Wang, Qin; Liu, Xiaoqun

2016-07-01

Chang'E-4 mission, being undertaken by phase two of China Lunar Exploration Program, represents China's first attempt to explore farside of lunar surface. Its probe includes a lander, a rover and a telecommunication relay which is scheduled to launch in around 2018. The scientific objectives of CE-4 mission will be implemented to investigate the lunar regional geological characteristics of landing and roving area, and also will make the first radio-astronomy measurements from the most radio-quiet region of near-earth space. The rover will opreate for at least 3 months, the lander for half a year, and the relay for no less than 3 years. Its scinetific instruments includes Cameras, infrared imaging spectrometer, Penetrating Radar onboard the rover in which is the same as the paylads on board the CE-3 rover, and a Dust-analyzer, a Temperature-instrument and a Wide Band Low Frequency Digital Radio Astronomical Station will be installed on board the lander. Our scientific goals of the future lunar exploration will aim at the lunar geology, resources and surface environments. A series of exploraion missions such as robotic exploration and non-manned lunar scientific station is proposed in this paper.

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Adolescents in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2013. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 81

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2014-01-01

This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup trends for U.S. secondary school students in a series of figures and tables. It supplements two of four annual monographs from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, namely the "Overview of Key Findings" and "Volume I: Secondary School Students." MTF is funded by the…

NASA Ames Sustainability Initiatives: Aeronautics, Space Exploration, and Sustainable Futures

Science.gov (United States)

Grymes, Rosalind A.

2015-01-01

In support of the mission-specific challenges of aeronautics and space exploration, NASA Ames produces a wealth of research and technology advancements with significant relevance to larger issues of planetary sustainability. NASA research on NexGen airspace solutions and its development of autonomous and intelligent technologies will revolutionize both the nation's air transporation systems and have applicability to the low altitude flight economy and to both air and ground transporation, more generally. NASA's understanding of the Earth as a complex of integrated systems contributes to humanity's perception of the sustainability of our home planet. Research at NASA Ames on closed environment life support systems produces directly applicable lessons on energy, water, and resource management in ground-based infrastructure. Moreover, every NASA campus is a 'city'; including an urbanscape and a workplace including scientists, human relations specialists, plumbers, engineers, facility managers, construction trades, transportation managers, software developers, leaders, financial planners, technologists, electricians, students, accountants, and even lawyers. NASA is applying the lessons of our mission-related activities to our urbanscapes and infrastructure, and also anticipates a leadership role in developing future environments for living and working in space.

Predicting chaotic time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farmer, J.D.; Sidorowich, J.J.

1987-01-01

We present a forecasting technique for chaotic data. After embedding a time series in a state space using delay coordinates, we ''learn'' the induced nonlinear mapping using local approximation. This allows us to make short-term predictions of the future behavior of a time series, using information based only on past values. We present an error estimate for this technique, and demonstrate its effectiveness by applying it to several examples, including data from the Mackey-Glass delay differential equation, Rayleigh-Benard convection, and Taylor-Couette flow

Exploration Space Suit Architecture: Destination Environmental-Based Technology Development

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Terry R.

2010-01-01

This paper picks up where EVA Space Suit Architecture: Low Earth Orbit Vs. Moon Vs. Mars (Hill, Johnson, IEEEAC paper #1209) left off in the development of a space suit architecture that is modular in design and interfaces and could be reconfigured to meet the mission or during any given mission depending on the tasks or destination. This paper will walk though the continued development of a space suit system architecture, and how it should evolve to meeting the future exploration EVA needs of the United States space program. In looking forward to future US space exploration and determining how the work performed to date in the CxP and how this would map to a future space suit architecture with maximum re-use of technology and functionality, a series of thought exercises and analysis have provided a strong indication that the CxP space suit architecture is well postured to provide a viable solution for future exploration missions. Through the destination environmental analysis that is presented in this paper, the modular architecture approach provides the lowest mass, lowest mission cost for the protection of the crew given any human mission outside of low Earth orbit. Some of the studies presented here provide a look and validation of the non-environmental design drivers that will become every-increasingly important the further away from Earth humans venture and the longer they are away. Additionally, the analysis demonstrates a logical clustering of design environments that allows a very focused approach to technology prioritization, development and design that will maximize the return on investment independent of any particular program and provide architecture and design solutions for space suit systems in time or ahead of being required for any particular manned flight program in the future. The new approach to space suit design and interface definition the discussion will show how the architecture is very adaptable to programmatic and funding changes with

Strategic planning for future learning environments: an exploration of interpersonal, interprofessional and political factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Cathrine

2013-09-01

This article, written from the stance of a public planner and a policy maker, explores the challenges and potential in creating future learning environments through the concept of a new learning landscape. It is based on the belief that physical planning can support the strategic goals of universities. In Denmark, a political focus on education as a mean to improve national capacity for innovation and growth are redefining the universities role in society. This is in turn changing the circumstances for the physical planning. Drawing on examples of physical initiatives in three different scales--city, building and room scale, the paper highlights how space and place matters on an interpersonal, an interprofessional and a political level. The article suggests that a wider understanding of how new learning landscapes are created--both as a material reality and a political discourse--can help frame an emerging community of practice. This involves university leaders, faculty and students, architects, designers and urban planners, citizens and policy makers with the common goal of creating future learning environments today.

Command and Control Planning and Teamwork: Exploring the Future

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Sterling, Bruce S; Lickteig, Carl W

2000-01-01

.... This paper examines how participant ratings of command and control planning and observer assessments of teamwork were related in a series of futuristic missions conducted by the Mounted Maneuver...

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Adolescents in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2016. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 88

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Miech, Richard A.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2017-01-01

This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup data for the 1975-2016 Monitoring the Future (MTF) national survey results on 8th , 10th, and 12th graders' use of drugs, alcohol, and tobacco. MTF is funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse at the National Institutes of Health under a series of investigator-initiated, competitive…

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Adolescents in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2015. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 86

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Miech, Richard A.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2016-01-01

This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup data for the 1975-2015 Monitoring the Future (MTF) national survey results on 8th, 10th, and 12th graders' use of drugs, alcohol, and tobacco. MTF is funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse at the National Institutes of Health under a series of investigator-initiated, competitive…

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Adolescents in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2014. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 83

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Miech, Richard A.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2015-01-01

This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup data for the 1975-2014 Monitoring the Future (MTF) national survey results on 8th, 10th, and 12th graders' use of drugs, alcohol, and tobacco. MTF is funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse at the National Institutes of Health under a series of investigator-initiated, competitive…

Development of flood regressions and climate change scenarios to explore estimates of future peak flows

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Douglas A.; Smith, Martyn J.; Freehafer, Douglas A.

2015-12-31

A new Web-based application, titled “Application of Flood Regressions and Climate Change Scenarios To Explore Estimates of Future Peak Flows”, has been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Transportation, that allows a user to apply a set of regression equations to estimate the magnitude of future floods for any stream or river in New York State (exclusive of Long Island) and the Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont. The regression equations that are the basis of the current application were developed in previous investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and are described at the USGS StreamStats Web sites for New York (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/new_york.html) and Vermont (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/Vermont.html). These regression equations include several fixed landscape metrics that quantify aspects of watershed geomorphology, basin size, and land cover as well as a climate variable—either annual precipitation or annual runoff.

Environmental Scanning, Futures Research, Strategic Foresight and Organizational Future Orientation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rohrbeck, René; Bade, Manuel

to adjacent research disciplines. Through such integration and linkage research should produce better recommendations for managers on how to build an organizational future orientation, drive organizational adaptation, and make their firms robust towards external discontinuous change.......In this paper we explore the current understanding on how firms explore future changes and trends as well as plan their managerial responses. We review literature in four research streams: (1) environmental scanning, (2) futures research, (3) peripheral vision, and (4) corporate/strategic foresight....... Through the analysis of more than 250 articles we (a) trace the evolution over time, (b) highlight the linkages between the different research streams, and (c) give recommendations for future research. Overall we call for more cross-fertilization of the different research streams and a stronger linkage...

Future accelerators (?)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John Womersley

2003-08-21

I describe the future accelerator facilities that are currently foreseen for electroweak scale physics, neutrino physics, and nuclear structure. I will explore the physics justification for these machines, and suggest how the case for future accelerators can be made.

Essential elements of a framework for future space exploration and use: the role of science

Science.gov (United States)

Rummel, John; Ehrenfreund, Pascale

The objective of the COSPAR Panel on Exploration (PEX) is to provide independent scientific advice to support the development of exploration programs and to safeguard the potential scientific assets of solar system objects. The Outer Space Treaty (OST) of 1967 provides (Article I) for “exploration and use of outer space” as well as an obligation for States to authorize and supervise space activities (Article VI) so “that national activities are carried out in conformity with the provisions set forth in the. . Treaty,” while the provisions of Article IX of the Treaty include pursuing “studies of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, and conduct[ing] exploration of them so as to avoid their harmful contamination." In short, the Treaty provides for many activities to take place in outer space, but it also leaves to the future the definitions of “harmful contamination,” “adverse changes,” and even “use.” In order to provide for both protection and use in outer space, and therefore to provide for both scientific and economic exploration, an extension of the OST (or its replacement) will be required. Whatever policy choices are made in constructing such a framework, it is clear that scientific understanding of the solar system, and each of its individual planetary bodies, will be required to determine the balance—and it may be a dynamic balance—between protection and use of outer space environments. This paper will consider the role of scientific advice and continuing research and education within such a framework, and as an essential complement to the necessary regulation distinguishing between protection and use of different locations in outer space.

Costationarity of Locally Stationary Time Series Using costat

OpenAIRE

Cardinali, Alessandro; Nason, Guy P.

2013-01-01

This article describes the R package costat. This package enables a user to (i) perform a test for time series stationarity; (ii) compute and plot time-localized autocovariances, and (iii) to determine and explore any costationary relationship between two locally stationary time series. Two locally stationary time series are said to be costationary if there exists two time-varying combination functions such that the linear combination of the two series with the functions produces another time...

Exploration of the Future – a Key to Sustainable Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vatroslav Zovko

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Throughout the history people were fascinated and curious about the future. The future was, and still is seen as a key for prosperous development in all aspects of the society. As such, new discipline is developed – future studies.This paper discusses the discipline of future studies and its role in the society and science. Future studies are analyzed in the context of sustainable development. It is argued that future studies and sustainable development are complementary in nature. Based on analysis of most developed countries in the world, that spend the greatest portion of their budget on research, development and science in comparison to the rest of the world, there is a conclusive link between investments in research, development and science, and the recognition of the importance of thinking about the future. Those countries started to formalize their future orientation in many respected research centres and universities through their educational programs and research. That situation poses the need for other, less well off countries, to follow up.

In Situ Biological Contamination Studies of the Moon: Implications for Future Planetary Protection and Life Detection Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Glavin, Daniel P.; Dworkin, Jason P.; Lupisella, Mark; Kminek, Gerhard; Rummel, John D.

2010-01-01

NASA and ESA have outlined visions for solar system exploration that will include a series of lunar robotic precursor missions to prepare for, and support a human return to the Moon, and future human exploration of Mars and other destinations. One of the guiding principles for exploration is to pursue compelling scientific questions about the origin and evolution of life. The search for life on objects such as Mars will require that all spacecraft and instrumentation be sufficiently cleaned and sterilized prior to launch to ensure that the scientific integrity of extraterrestrial samples is not jeopardized by terrestrial organic contamination. Under the Committee on Space Research's (COSPAR's) current planetary protection policy for the Moon, no sterilization procedures are required for outbound lunar spacecraft, nor is there yet a planetary protection category for human missions. Future in situ investigations of a variety of locations on the Moon by highly sensitive instruments designed to search for biologically derived organic compounds would help assess the contamination of the Moon by lunar spacecraft. These studies could also provide valuable "ground truth" data for Mars sample return missions and help define planetary protection requirements for future Mars bound spacecraft carrying life detection experiments. In addition, studies of the impact of terrestrial contamination of the lunar surface by the Apollo astronauts could provide valuable data to help refine future Mars surface exploration plans for a human mission to Mars.

An exploration of pregnant teenagers' views of the future and their decisions to continue or terminate their pregnancy: implications for nursing care.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Emily R; Glover, Lesley; Alexander, Tim

2014-09-01

To explore teenagers' views of the future in relation to their choices to continue or terminate pregnancy. Despite recent decreases in the numbers of teenage pregnancies, across the world, the teenage pregnancy rate remains high. Consideration of views of the future (future orientation) appears to play an important part in teenage girls' decisions to continue with pregnancy. To date, no study has explored this in teenage pregnant girls at the time they make their decision to continue with or terminate their pregnancy. Cross-sectional mixed methods design. Three groups were included: termination of pregnancy (n = 19), antenatal (n = 9) and never pregnant (n = 23). Participants were 13-18 years old. The termination of pregnancy and antenatal groups were interviewed, and the never pregnant group completed postal questionnaires. Groups differed in individual aspects of future orientation, that is, education, career and family, and reasons for pregnancy resolution choice. The termination group had more clearly developed and longer-term plans for the future with a focus on career. The never pregnant group shared aspects of their future orientation with both the antenatal and termination of pregnancy groups. The impact of negative discourses about teenage pregnancy from others was identified as a significant issue. How pregnant teenage girls view the future has a relationship with their decision to terminate or continue with their pregnancy. The findings suggest that working with teenage girls to clarify their views of the future may be useful both in preventing future unwanted pregnancy and in supporting teenagers in making pregnancy decisions. Supporting pregnant teenagers in distancing themselves from negative stereotypes of teenage mothers may also be beneficial. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Future In-Space Operations (FISO): A Working Group and Community Engagement

Science.gov (United States)

Thronson, Harley; Lester, Dan

2013-01-01

Long-duration human capabilities beyond low Earth orbit (LEO), either in support of or as an alternative to lunar surface operations, have been assessed at least since the late 1960s. Over the next few months, we will present short histories of concepts for long-duration, free-space human habitation beyond LEO from the end of the Apollo program to the Decadal Planning Team (DPT)/NASA Exploration Team (NExT), which was active in 1999 2000 (see Forging a vision: NASA s Decadal Planning Team and the origins of the Vision for Space Exploration , The Space Review, December 19, 2005). Here we summarize the brief existence of the Future In-Space Operations (FISO) working group in 2005 2006 and its successor, a telecon-based colloquium series, which we co-moderate.

A Review of Subsequence Time Series Clustering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyedjamal Zolhavarieh

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Clustering of subsequence time series remains an open issue in time series clustering. Subsequence time series clustering is used in different fields, such as e-commerce, outlier detection, speech recognition, biological systems, DNA recognition, and text mining. One of the useful fields in the domain of subsequence time series clustering is pattern recognition. To improve this field, a sequence of time series data is used. This paper reviews some definitions and backgrounds related to subsequence time series clustering. The categorization of the literature reviews is divided into three groups: preproof, interproof, and postproof period. Moreover, various state-of-the-art approaches in performing subsequence time series clustering are discussed under each of the following categories. The strengths and weaknesses of the employed methods are evaluated as potential issues for future studies.

A review of subsequence time series clustering.

Science.gov (United States)

Zolhavarieh, Seyedjamal; Aghabozorgi, Saeed; Teh, Ying Wah

2014-01-01

Clustering of subsequence time series remains an open issue in time series clustering. Subsequence time series clustering is used in different fields, such as e-commerce, outlier detection, speech recognition, biological systems, DNA recognition, and text mining. One of the useful fields in the domain of subsequence time series clustering is pattern recognition. To improve this field, a sequence of time series data is used. This paper reviews some definitions and backgrounds related to subsequence time series clustering. The categorization of the literature reviews is divided into three groups: preproof, interproof, and postproof period. Moreover, various state-of-the-art approaches in performing subsequence time series clustering are discussed under each of the following categories. The strengths and weaknesses of the employed methods are evaluated as potential issues for future studies.

A Review of Subsequence Time Series Clustering

Science.gov (United States)

Teh, Ying Wah

2014-01-01

Clustering of subsequence time series remains an open issue in time series clustering. Subsequence time series clustering is used in different fields, such as e-commerce, outlier detection, speech recognition, biological systems, DNA recognition, and text mining. One of the useful fields in the domain of subsequence time series clustering is pattern recognition. To improve this field, a sequence of time series data is used. This paper reviews some definitions and backgrounds related to subsequence time series clustering. The categorization of the literature reviews is divided into three groups: preproof, interproof, and postproof period. Moreover, various state-of-the-art approaches in performing subsequence time series clustering are discussed under each of the following categories. The strengths and weaknesses of the employed methods are evaluated as potential issues for future studies. PMID:25140332

Supercomputing - Use Cases, Advances, The Future (2/2)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2017-01-01

Supercomputing has become a staple of science and the poster child for aggressive developments in silicon technology, energy efficiency and programming. In this series we examine the key components of supercomputing setups and the various advances – recent and past – that made headlines and delivered bigger and bigger machines. We also take a closer look at the future prospects of supercomputing, and the extent of its overlap with high throughput computing, in the context of main use cases ranging from oil exploration to market simulation. On the second day, we will focus on software and software paradigms driving supercomputers, workloads that need supercomputing treatment, advances in technology and possible future developments. Lecturer's short bio: Andrzej Nowak has 10 years of experience in computing technologies, primarily from CERN openlab and Intel. At CERN, he managed a research lab collaborating with Intel and was part of the openlab Chief Technology Office. Andrzej also worked closely and i...

Model-based Integration of Past & Future in TimeTravel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khalefa, Mohamed E.; Fischer, Ulrike; Pedersen, Torben Bach

2012-01-01

We demonstrate TimeTravel, an efficient DBMS system for seamless integrated querying of past and (forecasted) future values of time series, allowing the user to view past and future values as one joint time series. This functionality is important for advanced application domain like energy....... The main idea is to compactly represent time series as models. By using models, the TimeTravel system answers queries approximately on past and future data with error guarantees (absolute error and confidence) one order of magnitude faster than when accessing the time series directly. In addition...... it to answer approximate and exact queries. TimeTravel is implemented into PostgreSQL, thus achieving complete user transparency at the query level. In the demo, we show the easy building of a hierarchical model index for a real-world time series and the effect of varying the error guarantees on the speed up...

A Review of the Experimental and Modeling Development of a Water Phase Change Heat Exchanger for Future Exploration Support Vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Cognata, Thomas; Leimkuehler, Thomas; Ramaswamy, Balasubramaniam; Nayagam, Vedha; Hasan, Mohammad; Stephan, Ryan

2011-01-01

Water affords manifold benefits for human space exploration. Its properties make it useful for the storage of thermal energy as a Phase Change Material (PCM) in thermal control systems, in radiation shielding against Solar Particle Events (SPE) for the protection of crew members, and it is indisputably necessary for human life support. This paper envisions a single application for water which addresses these benefits for future exploration support vehicles and it describes recent experimental and modeling work that has been performed in order to arrive at a description of the thermal behavior of such a system. Experimental units have been developed and tested which permit the evaluation of the many parameters of design for such a system with emphasis on the latent energy content, temperature rise, mass, and interstitial material geometry. The experimental results are used to develop a robust and well correlated model which is intended to guide future design efforts toward the multi-purposed water PCM heat exchanger envisioned.

Towards Narrative Futuring in Psychology: Becoming Resilient by Imagining the Future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sools, Anna Maria; Mooren, J.H.M.

2012-01-01

In this article we develop a narrative psychological approach to futuring (imagining the future). We explore how this approach addresses the question of how people can become resilient in order to anticipate (social) crisis and change. Firstly, we bring to the fore how futuring takes shape in

The Future of TV Drama

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Redvall, Eva Novrup

2015-01-01

The future of television – and particularly of TV drama – was widely on the Danish industry agenda in June with the Copenhagen Future TV Conference and an international seminar on producing, selling, programming and remaking TV series. Eva Novrup Redvall reports....

Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control

CERN Document Server

Box, George E P; Reinsel, Gregory C

2011-01-01

A modernized new edition of one of the most trusted books on time series analysis. Since publication of the first edition in 1970, Time Series Analysis has served as one of the most influential and prominent works on the subject. This new edition maintains its balanced presentation of the tools for modeling and analyzing time series and also introduces the latest developments that have occurred n the field over the past decade through applications from areas such as business, finance, and engineering. The Fourth Edition provides a clearly written exploration of the key methods for building, cl

Exploring the three flavor effects with future superbeams using liquid argon detectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agarwalla, Sanjib Kumar; Prakash, Suprabh; Sankar, S. Uma

2014-01-01

Recent measurement of a moderately large value of θ 13 signifies an important breakthrough in establishing the standard three flavor oscillation picture of neutrinos. It has provided an opportunity to explore the sub-dominant three flavor effects in present and future long-baseline experiments. In this paper, we perform a comparative study of the physics reach of two future superbeam facilities, LBNE and LBNO in their first phases of run, to resolve the issues of neutrino mass hierarchy, octant of θ 23 , and leptonic CP violation. We also find that the sensitivity of these future facilities can be improved significantly by adding the projected data from T2K and NOνA. Stand-alone LBNO setup with a 10 kt detector has a mass hierarchy discovery reach of more than 7σ, for the lowest allowed value of sin 2  θ 23 (true) = 0.34. This result is valid for any choice of true δ CP and hierarchy. LBNE10, in combination with T2K and NOνA, can achieve 3σ hierarchy discrimination for any choice of δ CP , sin 2  θ 23 , and hierarchy. The same combination can provide a 3σ octant resolution for sin 2  θ 23 (true) ≤ 0.44 or for sin 2  θ 23 (true) ≥ 0.58 for all values of δ CP (true). LBNO can give similar results with 10 kt detector mass. In their first phases, both LBNE10 and LBNO with 20 kt detector can establish leptonic CP violation for around 50% values of true δ CP at 2σ confidence level. In case of LBNE10, CP coverage at 3σ can be enhanced from 3% to 43% by combining T2K and NOνA data, assuming sin 2  θ 23 (true) = 0.5. For LBNO setup, CP violation discovery at 3σ is possible for 46% values of true δ CP if we add the data from T2K and NOνA

A paleo-aerodynamic exploration of the evolution of nature's flyers, man's aircraft, and the needs and options for future technology innovations

Science.gov (United States)

Kulfan, Brenda M.

2009-03-01

Insights and observations of fascinating aspects of birds, bugs and flying seeds, of inspired aerodynamic concepts, and visions of past, present and future aircraft developments are presented. The evolution of nature's flyers, will be compared with the corresponding evolution of commercial aircraft. We will explore similarities between nature's creations and man's inventions. Many critical areas requiring future significant technology based solutions remain. With the advent of UAVs and MAVs, the gap between "possible" and "actual" is again very large. Allometric scaling procedures will be used to explore size implications on limitations and performance capabilities of nature's creations. Biologically related technology development concepts including: bionics, biomimicry, neo-bionic, pseudo-mimicry, cybernetic and non-bionic approaches will be discussed and illustrated with numerous examples. Technology development strategies will be discussed along with the pros and cons for each. Future technology developments should include a synergistic coupling of "discovery driven", "product led" and "technology acceleration" strategies. The objective of this presentation is to inspire the creative nature existing within all of us. This is a summary all text version of the complete report with the same title that report includes approximately 80 figures, photos and charts and much more information.

Uranium exploration in Egypt past, current and future activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farag, N.

2014-01-01

The Egyptian Nuclear Materials Authority (NMA), is the government body responsible for exploration of the nuclear raw materials in the country. The early NMA U-exploration activities has included training of exploration teams, conduction of airborne, ground follow up and preliminary geological mapping as well as execution of limited exploration drilling. A number of TC projects and expert missions were mainly executed in collaboration with the IAEA for this purpose. These efforts have resulted in the discovery of seven U-potential prospects. NMA has also exercised limited heap leaching on experimental scale and obtained small amounts of U-concentrates, utilized for R & D purposes. However, the exploration activities remained in the preliminary phases and did not succeed to reach either reliable evaluation of the discovered uranium resources or running productive U-exploitation. By the end of the last decade, Egypt has declared the intention to adopt a peaceful program for electric power generation; this implied NMA to implement a twofold plan as described hereafter. Regarding the conventional U-resources, occurring in the Eastern Desert, NMA focus the exploration activities on the younger granites of Pan African type, and the associated inter-mountain basins. The activities will be restricted to the evaluation of U-reserves in at least three of the most promising uranium prospects that still require extensive exploration drilling programs. NMA is now implementing an international bid announcement seeking for partnership of an experienced international firm, to assess the uranium resources in these sites, in addition to receiving relevant IAEA/TC programs. Regarding non-conventional resources, the black sand project is mainly a resource of a titanium and zirconium minerals; however, NMA is now trying to process monazite to obtain mainly Th and minor U by-products. NMA has successfully completed an exploration study and. the Government of Egypt has recently

Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Korup Andersen, Aske; Larsen, Anders Badsberg

2017-01-01

Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme...... includes climate changes projected to a specific future period. This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions...... for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads...

Exploring Astrobiology: Future and In-Service Teacher Research Experiences

Science.gov (United States)

Cola, J.; Williams, L. D.; Snell, T.; Gaucher, E.; Harris, B.; Usselman, M. C.; Millman, R. S.

2009-12-01

The Georgia Tech Center for Ribosome Adaptation and Evolution, a center funded by the NASA Astrobiology Institute, developed an educational Astrobiology program titled, “Life on the Edge: Astrobiology.” The purpose of the program was to provide educators with the materials, exposure, and skills necessary to prepare our future workforce and to foster student interest in scientific discovery on Earth and throughout the universe. A one-week, non-residential summer enrichment program for high school students was conducted and tested by two high school educators, an undergraduate student, and faculty in the Schools of Biology, and Chemistry and Biochemistry at Georgia Tech. In an effort to promote and encourage entry into teaching careers, Georgia Tech paired in-service teachers in the Georgia Intern-Fellowship for Teachers (GIFT) program with an undergraduate student interested in becoming a teacher through the Tech to Teaching program. The GIFT and Tech to Teaching fellows investigated extremophiles which have adapted to life under extreme environmental conditions. As a result, extremophiles became the focus of a week-long, “Life on the Edge: Astrobiology” curriculum aligned with the Georgia Performance Standards in Biology. Twenty-five high school students explored the adaptation and survival rates for various types of extremophiles exposed to UV radiation and desiccation; students were also introduced to hands-on activities and techniques such as genomic DNA purification, gel electrophoresis, and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). The impact on everyone invested and involved in the Astrobiology program including the GIFT and Tech to Teaching fellows, high school students, and faculty are discussed.

Future Computing Technology (3/3)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2015-01-01

Computing of the future will be affected by a number of fundamental technologies in development today, many of which are already on the way to becoming commercialized. In this series of lectures, we will discuss hardware and software development that will become mainstream in the timeframe of a few years and how they will shape or change the computing landscape - commercial and personal alike. Topics range from processor and memory aspects, programming models and the limits of artificial intelligence, up to end-user interaction with wearables or e-textiles. We discuss the impact of these technologies on the art of programming, the data centres of the future and daily life. On the third day of the Future Computing Technology series, we will touch on societal aspects of the future of computing. Our perception of computers may at time seem passive, but in reality we are a vital chain of the feedback loop. Human-computer interaction, innovative forms of computers, privacy, process automation, threats and medica...

EcoMobility. Changwon 2011 World Congress on Mobility for the Future of Sustainable Cities. A Series of Local Cases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-11-15

More than 390 participants from around the world gathered in Changwon, Republic of Korea to share ideas on sustainable mobility and discuss creative solutions for the future. On the occasion of this global multi-stakeholder forum ICLEI published a series of local case stories to showcase leading visionaries for EcoMobility. These local case stories provide a deeper insight into the practices of sustainable mobility and serve as a source of inspiration for innovative transport solutions. Included are 14 outstanding examples from: Ahmedabad, India; Bologna, Italy; Bremen, Germany; Curitiba, Brazil; Freiburg, Germany; Gaevle, Sweden; Hangzhou, China; La Rochelle, France; London, UK; Lund, Sweden; Portland, USA; Seoul, Republic of Korea; Stockholm, Sweden; and Vancouver, Canada.

Exploration Space Suit Architecture and Destination Environmental-Based Technology Development

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Terry R.; McFarland, Shane M.; Korona, F. Adam

2013-01-01

This paper continues forward where EVA Space Suit Architecture: Low Earth Orbit Vs. Moon Vs. Mars left off in the development of a space suit architecture that is modular in design and could be reconfigured prior to launch or during any given mission depending on the tasks or destination. This space suit system architecture and technologies required based on human exploration (EVA) destinations will be discussed, and how these systems should evolve to meet the future exploration EVA needs of the US human space flight program. A series of exercises and analyses provided a strong indication that the Constellation Program space suit architecture, with its maximum reuse of technology and functionality across a range of mission profiles and destinations, is postured to provide a viable solution for future space exploration missions. The destination environmental analysis demonstrates that the modular architecture approach could provide the lowest mass and mission cost for the protection of the crew, given any human mission outside of low-Earth orbit. Additionally, some of the high-level trades presented here provide a review of the environmental and nonenvironmental design drivers that will become increasingly important as humans venture farther from Earth. The presentation of destination environmental data demonstrates a logical clustering of destination design environments that allows a focused approach to technology prioritization, development, and design that will maximize the return on investment, largely independent of any particular design reference mission.

Exploring the implications of social change for human development: perspectives, issues and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xinyin

2015-02-01

Researchers have investigated the implications of social change for human development from different perspectives. The studies published in this special section were conducted within Greenfield's theoretical framework (2009). The findings concerning links between specific sociodemographic features (e.g., commercial activities, schooling) and individual cognition and social behaviour are particularly interesting because they tap the underlying forces that drive human development. To further understand the issues in these studies and in the field, a pluralist-constructive perspective is discussed, which emphasises the integration of diverse values and practices in both Western and non-Western societies and its effects on the development of sophisticated competencies in individual adaptation to the changing global community. In addition, several issues are highlighted and some suggestions are provided for future explorations in this field. © 2014 International Union of Psychological Science.

The art of creating futures. Practical theology and a strategic research sensitivity for the future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Berg, J.A.; Ganzevoort, R.R.

2014-01-01

This paper explores a futures perspective for practical theology. Although there are some examples of a future orientation, a systematic futures perspective has not been developed. Building on futures studies (including predictive studies on foresight and design and architecture studies), the

A home-based body weight supported treadmill training program for children with cerebral palsy: A case series.

Science.gov (United States)

Kenyon, Lisa K; Westman, Marci; Hefferan, Ashley; McCrary, Peter; Baker, Barbara J

2017-07-01

Contemporary approaches to the treatment of cerebral palsy (CP) advocate a task-specific approach that emphasizes repetition and practice of specific tasks. Recent studies suggest that body-weight-supported treadmill training (BWSTT) programs may be beneficial in clinical settings. The purposes of this case series were to explore the outcomes and feasibility of a home-based BWSTT program for three children with CP. Three children with CP at Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) Levels III or IV participated in this case series. Examination included the Functional Assessment Questionnaire (FAQ), the 10-meter walk test, the Gross Motor Function Measure (GMFM-66), and the Pediatric Evaluation of Disability Inventory-Computer Adaptive Test (PEDI-CAT). A harness system was used to conduct the BWSTT program over an 8-12 week period. All of the families reported enjoying the BWSTT program and found the harness easy to use. Participant 2 increased from a 2 to a 4 on the FAQ, while Participant 3 increased from a 6 to a 7. Two of the participants demonstrated post-intervention improvements in functional mobility. In addition to mobility outcomes, future research should explore the potential health benefits of a home-based BWSTT program.

Road safety forecasts in five European countries using structural time series models.

Science.gov (United States)

Antoniou, Constantinos; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George

2014-01-01

Modeling road safety development is a complex task and needs to consider both the quantifiable impact of specific parameters as well as the underlying trends that cannot always be measured or observed. The objective of this research is to apply structural time series models for obtaining reliable medium- to long-term forecasts of road traffic fatality risk using data from 5 countries with different characteristics from all over Europe (Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Norway, and Switzerland). Two structural time series models are considered: (1) the local linear trend model and the (2) latent risk time series model. Furthermore, a structured decision tree for the selection of the applicable model for each situation (developed within the Road Safety Data, Collection, Transfer and Analysis [DaCoTA] research project, cofunded by the European Commission) is outlined. First, the fatality and exposure data that are used for the development of the models are presented and explored. Then, the modeling process is presented, including the model selection process, introduction of intervention variables, and development of mobility scenarios. The forecasts using the developed models appear to be realistic and within acceptable confidence intervals. The proposed methodology is proved to be very efficient for handling different cases of data availability and quality, providing an appropriate alternative from the family of structural time series models in each country. A concluding section providing perspectives and directions for future research is presented.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation: Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; Dunphy, R. T.; Vimmerstedt, L.

2013-03-01

Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation. Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Porter, C. D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Brown, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Dunphy, R. T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States)

2013-03-15

Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

The LTDP ALTS Project: Contributing to the Continued Understanding and Exploitation of the ATSR Time Series

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, Hannah; Done, Fay; Casadio, Stefano; Mackin, Stephen; Dinelli, Bianca Maria; Castelli, Elisa

2016-08-01

The long time-series of observations made by the Along Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSR) missions represents a valuable resource for a wide range of research and EO applications.With the advent of ESA's Long-TermData Preservation (LTDP) programme, thought has turned to the preservation and improved understanding of such long time-series, to support their continued exploitation in both existing and new areas of research, bringing the possibility of improving the existing data set and to inform and contribute towards future missions. For this reason, the 'Long Term Stability of the ATSR Instrument Series: SWIR Calibration, Cloud Masking and SAA' project, commonly known as the ATSR Long Term Stability (or ALTS) project, is designed to explore the key characteristics of the data set and new and innovative ways of enhancing and exploiting it.Work has focussed on: A new approach to the assessment of Short Wave Infra-Red (SWIR) channel calibration.; Developmentof a new method for Total Column Water Vapour (TCWV) retrieval.; Study of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA).; Radiative Transfer (RT) modelling for ATSR.; Providing AATSR observations with their location in the original instrument grid.; Strategies for the retrieval and archiving of historical ATSR documentation.; Study of TCWV retrieval over land; Development of new methods for cloud masking This paper provides an overview of these activities and illustrates the importance of preserving and understanding 'old' data for continued use in the future.

State Responsibility in Peacekeeping
The effect of responsibility on future contributions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nina Mileva

2016-01-01

Full Text Available While the law on state responsibility is a well-developed field in international law, the potential for responsibility on the part of the state as a result of events taking place during peacekeeping missions is a fairly novel phenomenon. Internationally, claims in this field have been brought before the European Court of Human Rights and the International Court of Justice. National courts, on the other hand, have heard a total of six cases on the matter, in Belgium, the UK, and the Netherlands, all eventually apportioning responsibility to the state. This paper explores the effect that the potential for responsibility, as manifested in the outcomes of these recent cases, may have on state behaviour with respect to its future contributions to peacekeeping. The paper combines an exploration of the relevant adjudged cases with views collected from experts and academia in order to formulate three hypotheses on the effect of the potential for responsibility on future state behaviour. These hypotheses are then applied to the example of the Netherlands in the aftermath of a series of decisions finding it responsible for events taking place during its involvement in peacekeeping in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 1990s. Due to the recent timing of the cases, the paper concludes with preliminary findings on each of the hypotheses, thereby opening the door to future research on the topic.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grenzeback, L. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Brown, A. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Fischer, M. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Hutson, N. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Lamm, C. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Pei, Y. L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vyas, A. D. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Winebrake, J. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use. After describing federal policy actions that could influence freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action.

Concept Exploration for a Future Frigate/Destroyer Size Warship Platform

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Trappe, Ralp

2001-01-01

The purpose of this thesis is to make a clean sheet of paper approach to develop a platform for a future frigate/destroyer size warship based on the operational requirements in the context of future...

Online Time Series Analysis of Land Products over Asia Monsoon Region via Giovanni

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Gerasimov, Irina

2011-01-01

Time series analysis is critical to the study of land cover/land use changes and climate. Time series studies at local-to-regional scales require higher spatial resolution, such as 1km or less, data. MODIS land products of 250m to 1km resolution enable such studies. However, such MODIS land data files are distributed in 10ox10o tiles, due to large data volumes. Conducting a time series study requires downloading all tiles that include the study area for the time period of interest, and mosaicking the tiles spatially. This can be an extremely time-consuming process. In support of the Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS) program, NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center) has processed MODIS land products at 1 km resolution over the Asia monsoon region (0o-60oN, 60o-150oE) with a common data structure and format. The processed data have been integrated into the Giovanni system (Goddard Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure) that enables users to explore, analyze, and download data over an area and time period of interest easily. Currently, the following regional MODIS land products are available in Giovanni: 8-day 1km land surface temperature and active fire, monthly 1km vegetation index, and yearly 0.05o, 500m land cover types. More data will be added in the near future. By combining atmospheric and oceanic data products in the Giovanni system, it is possible to do further analyses of environmental and climate changes associated with the land, ocean, and atmosphere. This presentation demonstrates exploring land products in the Giovanni system with sample case scenarios.

Future mission studies: Forecasting solar flux directly from its chaotic time series

Science.gov (United States)

Ashrafi, S.

1991-01-01

The mathematical structure of the programs written to construct a nonlinear predictive model to forecast solar flux directly from its time series without reference to any underlying solar physics is presented. This method and the programs are written so that one could apply the same technique to forecast other chaotic time series, such as geomagnetic data, attitude and orbit data, and even financial indexes and stock market data. Perhaps the most important application of this technique to flight dynamics is to model Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) output of residues between observed position of spacecraft and calculated position with no drag (drag flag = off). This would result in a new model of drag working directly from observed data.

Exploration and Mining Roadmap

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

none,

2002-09-01

This Exploration and Mining Technology Roadmap represents the third roadmap for the Mining Industry of the Future. It is based upon the results of the Exploration and Mining Roadmap Workshop held May 10 ñ 11, 2001.

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karremann, Melanie K; Pinto, Joaquim G; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

2014-01-01

Possible future changes of clustering and return periods (RPs) of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of reanalysis. Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels (RLs)) are used to assess RPs of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Additionally, 800 winters of general circulation model simulations for present (1960–2000) and future (2060–2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries, and estimated RPs are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of RPs are estimated for fixed RLs and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter RPs are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter RPs are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the RPs for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of pre-industrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed RLs. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate. (letter)

Teen Addiction. Current Controversies Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Winters, Paul A., Ed.

The Current Controversies series explores social, political, and economic controversies that dominate the national and international scenes today from a variety of perspectives. Recent surveys have shown that, after years of decline, drug use among teenagers has increased during the 1990s, and that alcohol and tobacco use have remained…

The Hurst exponent in energy futures prices

Science.gov (United States)

Serletis, Apostolos; Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam

2007-07-01

This paper extends the work in Elder and Serletis [Long memory in energy futures prices, Rev. Financial Econ., forthcoming, 2007] and Serletis et al. [Detrended fluctuation analysis of the US stock market, Int. J. Bifurcation Chaos, forthcoming, 2007] by re-examining the empirical evidence for random walk type behavior in energy futures prices. In doing so, it uses daily data on energy futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, over the period from July 2, 1990 to November 1, 2006, and a statistical physics approach-the ‘detrending moving average’ technique-providing a reliable framework for testing the information efficiency in financial markets as shown by Alessio et al. [Second-order moving average and scaling of stochastic time series, Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 197-200] and Carbone et al. [Time-dependent hurst exponent in financial time series. Physica A 344 (2004) 267-271; Analysis of clusters formed by the moving average of a long-range correlated time series. Phys. Rev. E 69 (2004) 026105]. The results show that energy futures returns display long memory and that the particular form of long memory is anti-persistence.

The Statistical Analysis of Time Series

CERN Document Server

Anderson, T W

2011-01-01

The Wiley Classics Library consists of selected books that have become recognized classics in their respective fields. With these new unabridged and inexpensive editions, Wiley hopes to extend the life of these important works by making them available to future generations of mathematicians and scientists. Currently available in the Series: T. W. Anderson Statistical Analysis of Time Series T. S. Arthanari & Yadolah Dodge Mathematical Programming in Statistics Emil Artin Geometric Algebra Norman T. J. Bailey The Elements of Stochastic Processes with Applications to the Natural Sciences George

Characterization of time series via Rényi complexity-entropy curves

Science.gov (United States)

Jauregui, M.; Zunino, L.; Lenzi, E. K.; Mendes, R. S.; Ribeiro, H. V.

2018-05-01

One of the most useful tools for distinguishing between chaotic and stochastic time series is the so-called complexity-entropy causality plane. This diagram involves two complexity measures: the Shannon entropy and the statistical complexity. Recently, this idea has been generalized by considering the Tsallis monoparametric generalization of the Shannon entropy, yielding complexity-entropy curves. These curves have proven to enhance the discrimination among different time series related to stochastic and chaotic processes of numerical and experimental nature. Here we further explore these complexity-entropy curves in the context of the Rényi entropy, which is another monoparametric generalization of the Shannon entropy. By combining the Rényi entropy with the proper generalization of the statistical complexity, we associate a parametric curve (the Rényi complexity-entropy curve) with a given time series. We explore this approach in a series of numerical and experimental applications, demonstrating the usefulness of this new technique for time series analysis. We show that the Rényi complexity-entropy curves enable the differentiation among time series of chaotic, stochastic, and periodic nature. In particular, time series of stochastic nature are associated with curves displaying positive curvature in a neighborhood of their initial points, whereas curves related to chaotic phenomena have a negative curvature; finally, periodic time series are represented by vertical straight lines.

Modelling oil exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Padilla, V.R.

1992-01-01

The analysis of oil exploration models in this paper is developed in four parts. The way in which exploration has been dealt with in oil supply models is first described. Five recent models are then looked at, paying particular attention to the explanatory variables used when modelling exploration activities. This is followed by a discussion of the factors which have been shown by several empirical studies to determine exploration in less developed countries. Finally, the interdependence between institutional factors, oil prices and exploration effort is analysed with a view to drawing conclusions for modelling in the future. (UK)

Why Synthetic Fuels Are Necessary in Future Energy Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. A. Grant Wilson

2017-07-01

Full Text Available We propose a hypothesis that fuels will continue to be critical elements of future energy systems. The reasons behind this are explored, such as the immense benefits conferred by fuels from their low cost of storage, transport, and handling, and especially in the management of the seasonal swing in heating demand for a country with a summer and winter season such as the UK. Empirical time-series data from Great Britain are used to examine the seasonal nature of the demand for liquid fuels, natural gas, and electricity, with the aid of a daily Shared Axis Energy Diagram. The logic of the continued need of fuels is examined, and the advantages and disadvantages of synthetic fuels are considered in comparison to fossil fuels.

Why Synthetic Fuels Are Necessary in Future Energy Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilson, I. A. Grant, E-mail: grant.wilson@sheffield.ac.uk [UK Centre for Carbon Dioxide Utilisation, Chemical & Biological Engineering, Sir Robert Hadfield Building, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield (United Kingdom); UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), London (United Kingdom); Styring, Peter [UK Centre for Carbon Dioxide Utilisation, Chemical & Biological Engineering, Sir Robert Hadfield Building, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

2017-07-24

We propose a hypothesis that fuels will continue to be critical elements of future energy systems. The reasons behind this are explored, such as the immense benefits conferred by fuels from their low cost of storage, transport, and handling, and especially in the management of the seasonal swing in heating demand for a country with a summer and winter season such as the UK. Empirical time-series data from Great Britain are used to examine the seasonal nature of the demand for liquid fuels, natural gas, and electricity, with the aid of a daily Shared Axis Energy Diagram. The logic of the continued need of fuels is examined, and the advantages and disadvantages of synthetic fuels are considered in comparison to fossil fuels.

Uranium exploration in India: present status and future strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maithani, P.B.

2011-01-01

Exploration for Uranium in India dates back to 1949, where surveys to locate atomic minerals were initiated in the well established Copper Thrust Belt (CTB) of Singhbhum, in the present day Jharkhand state. Based on the limited understanding on uranium geology, the thrust zones of Singhbhum which were popularly known for hosting Copper mineralization were targeted presuming sympathetic relation between Copper and Uranium. Exploration for uranium over the past six decades has resulted in identifying eleven major uranium deposits distributed in varied geological environs all over the country. Apart from conventional uranium mineralization, non-conventional resources like phosphorite, black shale etc. have immense potential. Even though their uranium grades will be of lower order, their uranium content will be huge due to their extensive size. In addition to intensifying uranium exploration in potential geological domains, AMD also plans to tap the non-conventional resources which will add substantially to the resource base

Amnesia and future thinking: Exploring the role of memory in the quantity and quality of episodic future thoughts.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Scott N; Morrison, Catriona M; Barak, Ohr; Pauly-Takacs, Katalin; Conway, Martin A

2016-06-01

To examine the impact of memory accessibility on episodic future thinking. Single-case study of neurological patient HCM and an age-matched comparison group of neurologically Healthy Controls. We administered a full battery of tests assessing general intelligence, memory, and executive functioning. To assess autobiographical memory, the Autobiographical Memory Interview (Kopelman, Wilson, & Baddeley, 1990. The Autobiographical Memory Interview. Bury St. Edmunds, UK: Thames Valley Test Company) was administered. The Past Episodic and Future Episodic sections of Dalla Barba's Confabulation Battery (Dalla Barba, 1993, Cogn. Neuropsychol., 1, 1) and a specifically tailored Mental Time Travel Questionnaire were administered to assess future thinking in HCM and age-matched controls. HCM presented with a deficit in forming new memories (anterograde amnesia) and recalling events from before the onset of neurological impairment (retrograde amnesia). HCM's autobiographical memory impairments are characterized by a paucity of memories from Recent Life. In comparison with controls, two features of his future thoughts are apparent: Reduced episodic future thinking and outdated content of his episodic future thoughts. This article suggests neuropsychologists should look beyond popular conceptualizations of the past-future relation in amnesia via focussing on reduced future thinking. Investigating both the quantity and quality of future thoughts produced by amnesic patients may lead to developments in understanding the complex nature of future thinking disorders resulting from memory impairments. We highlight the clinical importance of examining the content of future thoughts in amnesic patients, rather than only its quantitative reduction. We propose an explanation of how quantitative and qualitative aspects of future thinking could be affected by amnesia. This could provide a useful approach to understand clinical cases of impaired prospection. Systematic group investigations

Exploring the Origin, Extent, and Future of Life

Science.gov (United States)

Bertka, Constance M.

2009-09-01

1. Astrobiology in societal context Constance Bertka; Part I. Origin of Life: 2. Emergence and the experimental pursuit of the origin of life Robert Hazen; 3. From Aristotle to Darwin, to Freeman Dyson: changing definitions of life viewed in historical context James Strick; 4. Philosophical aspects of the origin-of-life problem: the emergence of life and the nature of science Iris Fry; 5. The origin of terrestrial life: a Christian perspective Ernan McMullin; 6. The alpha and the omega: reflections on the origin and future of life from the perspective of Christian theology and ethics Celia Deane-Drummond; Part II. Extent of Life: 7. A biologist's guide to the Solar System Lynn Rothschild; 8. The quest for habitable worlds and life beyond the Solar System Carl Pilcher; 9. A historical perspective on the extent and search for life Steven J. Dick; 10. The search for extraterrestrial life: epistemology, ethics, and worldviews Mark Lupisella; 11. The implications of discovering extraterrestrial life: different searches, different issues Margaret S. Race; 12. God, evolution, and astrobiology Cynthia S. W. Crysdale; Part III. Future of Life: 13. Planetary ecosynthesis on Mars: restoration ecology and environmental ethics Christopher P. McKay; 14. The trouble with intrinsic value: an ethical primer for astrobiology Kelly C. Smith; 15. God's preferential option for life: a Christian perspective on astrobiology Richard O. Randolph; 16. Comparing stories about the origin, extent, and future of life: an Asian religious perspective Francisca Cho; Index.

The Renewable Energy Data Explorer: Mapping Our Renewable Energy Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2017-04-13

The Renewable Energy (RE) Data Explorer, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, is an innovative web-based platform that allows users to visualize and analyze renewable energy potential. The RE Data Explorer informs prospecting, integrated planning, and policymaking to enable low emission development.

The Future of Engineering Education--Revisited

Science.gov (United States)

Wankat, Phillip C.; Bullard, Lisa G.

2016-01-01

This paper revisits the landmark CEE series, "The Future of Engineering Education," published in 2000 (available free in the CEE archives on the internet) to examine the predictions made in the original paper as well as the tools and approaches documented. Most of the advice offered in the original series remains current. Despite new…

Future NASA solar system exploration activities: A framework for international cooperation

Science.gov (United States)

French, Bevan M.; Ramlose, Terri; Briggs, Geoffrey A.

1992-01-01

The goals and approaches for planetary exploration as defined for the NASA Solar System Exploration Program are discussed. The evolution of the program since the formation of the Solar System Exploration Committee (SSEC) in 1980 is reviewed and the primary missions comprising the program are described.

Non-linear forecasting in high-frequency financial time series

Science.gov (United States)

Strozzi, F.; Zaldívar, J. M.

2005-08-01

A new methodology based on state space reconstruction techniques has been developed for trading in financial markets. The methodology has been tested using 18 high-frequency foreign exchange time series. The results are in apparent contradiction with the efficient market hypothesis which states that no profitable information about future movements can be obtained by studying the past prices series. In our (off-line) analysis positive gain may be obtained in all those series. The trading methodology is quite general and may be adapted to other financial time series. Finally, the steps for its on-line application are discussed.

Harry Potter book series - trivial or not?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brigita Pavšič

2006-12-01

Full Text Available The article explores  the extcnt to which the features  of trivial literature appear in the Harry Potter series by J. K. Rowling.This is done in comparison with another popular children's series, The Famous Five by Enid Blyton, which was analysed  by Igor Saksida. The main focus of the analysis is on the schematic representation of plot, characters and the exotic nature of the setting and time of the stories.

Exploring Dance Careers. A Student Guidebook.

Science.gov (United States)

Cornell, Richard; Hansen, Mary Lewis

One of six student guidebooks in a series of 11 arts and humanities career exploration guides for grade 7-12 teachers, counselors, and students, this student book on exploration of dance careers presents information on specific occupations in both performance careers and dance education. An introductory section describes the four different dance…

Interracial America. Opposing Viewpoints Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Szumski, Bonnie, Ed.

Books in the Opposing Viewpoints Series present debates about current issues that can be used to teach critical reading and thinking skills. The varied opinions in each book examine different aspects of a single issue. The topics covered in this volume explore the racial and ethnic tensions that concern many Americans today. The racial divide…

New NASA Technologies for Space Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Calle, Carlos I.

2015-01-01

NASA is developing new technologies to enable planetary exploration. NASA's Space Launch System is an advance vehicle for exploration beyond LEO. Robotic explorers like the Mars Science Laboratory are exploring Mars, making discoveries that will make possible the future human exploration of the planet. In this presentation, we report on technologies being developed at NASA KSC for planetary exploration.

Exploring the content and quality of episodic future simulations in semantic dementia.

Science.gov (United States)

Irish, Muireann; Addis, Donna Rose; Hodges, John R; Piguet, Olivier

2012-12-01

Semantic dementia (SD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterised by the amodal loss of semantic knowledge in the context of relatively preserved recent episodic memory. Recent studies have demonstrated that despite relatively intact episodic memory the capacity for future simulation in SD is profoundly impaired, resulting in an asymmetric profile where past retrieval is significantly better than future simulation (referred to as a past>future effect). Here, we sought to identify the origins of this asymmetric profile by conducting a fine-grained analysis of the contextual details provided during past retrieval and future simulation in SD. Participants with SD (n=14), Alzheimer's disease (n=11), and healthy controls (n=14) had previously completed an experimental past-future interview in which they generated three past events from the previous year, and three future events in the next year, and provided subjective qualitative ratings of vividness, emotional valence, emotional intensity, task difficulty, and personal significance for each event described. Our results confirmed the striking impairment for future simulation in SD, despite a relative preservation of past episodic retrieval. Examination of the contextual details provided for past memories and future simulations revealed significant impairments irrespective of contextual detail type for future simulations in SD, and demonstrated that the future thinking deficit in this cohort was driven by a marked decline in the provision of internal (episodic) event details. In contrast with this past>future effect for internal event details, SD patients displayed a future>past effect for external (non-episodic) event details. Analyses of the qualitative ratings provided for past and future events indicated that SD patients' phenomenological experience did not differ between temporal conditions. Our findings underscore the fact that successful extraction of episodic elements from the past is not

Procrastination, consideration of future consequences, and episodic future thinking.

Science.gov (United States)

Rebetez, Marie My Lien; Barsics, Catherine; Rochat, Lucien; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial

2016-05-01

Despite the intrinsic temporal nature of procrastination, little research has examined the link between this form of self-regulatory failure and the consideration of future consequences, and no study has addressed the link between procrastination and episodic future thinking. The aim of the present study was to explore these relationships. Participants were asked to project themselves into possible future events and to rate the amount of sensory-perceptual details and autonoetic consciousness associated with their representations. They were also asked to complete questionnaires that assessed procrastination, the consideration of future consequences, and negative affect. Results showed that both the consideration of future consequences and episodic future thinking were associated with procrastination, and in particular with procrastination-related decision making abilities and procrastination-related motivational dispositions, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploratory joint and separate tracking of geographically related time series

Science.gov (United States)

Balasingam, Balakumar; Willett, Peter; Levchuk, Georgiy; Freeman, Jared

2012-05-01

Target tracking techniques have usually been applied to physical systems via radar, sonar or imaging modalities. But the same techniques - filtering, association, classification, track management - can be applied to nontraditional data such as one might find in other fields such as economics, business and national defense. In this paper we explore a particular data set. The measurements are time series collected at various sites; but other than that little is known about it. We shall refer to as the data as representing the Megawatt hour (MWH) output of various power plants located in Afghanistan. We pose such questions as: 1. Which power plants seem to have a common model? 2. Do any power plants change their models with time? 3. Can power plant behavior be predicted, and if so, how far to the future? 4. Are some of the power plants stochastically linked? That is, do we observed a lack of power demand at one power plant as implying a surfeit of demand elsewhere? The observations seem well modeled as hidden Markov. This HMM modeling is compared to other approaches; and tests are continued to other (albeit self-generated) data sets with similar characteristics. Keywords: Time-series analysis, hidden Markov models, statistical similarity, clustering weighted

Exploring the future role of Asia utilizing a Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-economic Pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Kate; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae; Kim, Sonny; Kopp, Robert; Kyle, Page; Luckow, Patrick; Moss, Richard; Patel, Pralit; Wise, Marshall

2012-01-01

We explore the implications that alternative pathways for human population and economic development have for the role of Asia in reference no-climate-policy scenarios and scenarios in which climate forcing is limited. We consider three different pathways of socioeconomic development, which we refer to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and four different levels of limitation on climate forcing, which we refer to as Shared Climate Policy Assumptions (SPAs). SSPs are differentiated by population and economic growth assumptions, while SPAs are differentiated on the level of radiative forcing in the year 2100. Regardless of the scenarios we examined Asia plays a central role in shaping the world's future with nearly half of the world's people and more than half of the world's economic activity and energy consumption. The future of Asia and the world are dramatically different across the various combinations of SSPs and SPAs. High population worlds place significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. In high population SSPs the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices and the more stringent the level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor populations experience, though the more stringent the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems that are preserved. - Highlights: ► We explore the implications of alternative population and economic pathways for the role of Asia. ► High population world places significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. ► In high population world, the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices. ► The greater level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor people experience. ► The greater the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems preserved.

Cross-Market Linkages of Taiwan Index Futures Contracts Listed on the Taiwan Futures Exchange and the Singapore Exchange

OpenAIRE

Hung-Gay Fung; Qingfeng "Wilson" Liu; Gyoungsin "Daniel" Park

2007-01-01

Cointegration tests and ex ante trading rules are applied to study cross-market linkages between the Taiwan Index futures contracts listed on the Singapore Exchange and the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization-weighted Stock Index futures contracts listed on the Taiwan Futures Exchange. The exchange rate-adjusted returns of the two futures series do not differ significantly in mean but in variances, and show significant mean-reverting tendencies between them. Our trading strategies are able t...

The FASB explores accounting for future cash flows.

Science.gov (United States)

Luecke, R W; Meeting, D T

2001-03-01

The FASB's Statement of Financial Accounting Concepts No. 7, Using Cash Flow Information and Present Value in Accounting Measurements (Statement No. 7), presents the board's views regarding how cash-flow information and present values should be used in accounting for future cash flows when information on fair values is not available. Statement No. 7 presents new concepts regarding how an asset's present value should be calculated and when the interest method of allocation should be used. The FASB proposes a present-value method that takes into account the degree of uncertainty associated with future cash flows among different assets and liabilities. The FASB also suggests that rather than use estimated cash flows (in which a single set of cash flows and a single interest rate is used to reflect the risk associated with an asset or liability), accountants should use expected cash flows (in which all expectations about possible cash flows are used) in calculating present values.

A novel time series link prediction method: Learning automata approach

Science.gov (United States)

Moradabadi, Behnaz; Meybodi, Mohammad Reza

2017-09-01

Link prediction is a main social network challenge that uses the network structure to predict future links. The common link prediction approaches to predict hidden links use a static graph representation where a snapshot of the network is analyzed to find hidden or future links. For example, similarity metric based link predictions are a common traditional approach that calculates the similarity metric for each non-connected link and sort the links based on their similarity metrics and label the links with higher similarity scores as the future links. Because people activities in social networks are dynamic and uncertainty, and the structure of the networks changes over time, using deterministic graphs for modeling and analysis of the social network may not be appropriate. In the time-series link prediction problem, the time series link occurrences are used to predict the future links In this paper, we propose a new time series link prediction based on learning automata. In the proposed algorithm for each link that must be predicted there is one learning automaton and each learning automaton tries to predict the existence or non-existence of the corresponding link. To predict the link occurrence in time T, there is a chain consists of stages 1 through T - 1 and the learning automaton passes from these stages to learn the existence or non-existence of the corresponding link. Our preliminary link prediction experiments with co-authorship and email networks have provided satisfactory results when time series link occurrences are considered.

ISRU in the Context of Future European Human Mars Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, A. M.; Tomatis, C.

2002-01-01

the latest requirements. In addition, the paper will explore the options for compressing, cooling and storing gaseous products, methods for extracting buffer gases (such as nitrogen), and chemistries for producing additional oxygen. The paper will be written from the viewpoint of what European industry might be able to offer to a future set of Martian ISRU requirements, but in the context of an international human Mars mission. For example, the development of a compact Sabatier reactor for ISS air revitalisation, and high temperature methane cracking reactors by Astrium GmbH are considered. Other, current research has highlighted low temperature catalytic decomposition of methane, under evaluation as means of producing carbon nanofibres; and the photocatalytic reduction of CO2 as relevant technologies. This paper will also consider some key issues in ISRU design which have not yet been widely addressed, including the suitability of an Ar/N2 buffer gas mixture for life support (and the difficulties of its separation from the Martian atmosphere), the transfer of hydrogen feedstock to Mars, the storage of products on the surface, and the thermal balance in an ISRU plant (e.g. the balance of energy required for liquefaction of oxygen, against the heat sink available from the liquid hydrogen feedstock). In addition, this paper will detail the selected reaction chemistries for each required subsystem, giving (where possible) mass, power and volume estimates. These will be drawn together, justified and presented as a system level design for an ISRU plant. Finally, a technology roadmap for ISRU development will be covered, suggesting near term (2002-2006), medium term (2006-2015) and long term (2015-2030) priorities which could enable a European ISRU capability to be qualified for initial human Mars exploration.

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruth, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Aden, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Simpkins, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Argo, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2013-03-01

The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruth, M.; Mai, T.; Newes, E.; Aden, A.; Warner, E.; Uriarte, C.; Inman, D.; Simpkins, T.; Argo, A.

2013-03-01

The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

The Relationships among Imagination, Future Imagination Tendency, and Future Time Perspective of Junior High School Students

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Min-Ying

2015-01-01

The main purpose of the study were to investigate the relationships among imagination, future imagination tendency, and future time perspective of junior high school students, then to explore the future time perspective which is predicted by background variables, imaginative qualities, and future imagination tendency. The subjects were 331 from…

Fossil-Fuel C02 Emissions Database and Exploration System

Science.gov (United States)

Krassovski, M.; Boden, T.

2012-04-01

Fossil-Fuel C02 Emissions Database and Exploration System Misha Krassovski and Tom Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Oak Ridge National Laboratory The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) quantifies the release of carbon from fossil-fuel use and cement production each year at global, regional, and national spatial scales. These estimates are vital to climate change research given the strong evidence suggesting fossil-fuel emissions are responsible for unprecedented levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. The CDIAC fossil-fuel emissions time series are based largely on annual energy statistics published for all nations by the United Nations (UN). Publications containing historical energy statistics make it possible to estimate fossil-fuel CO2 emissions back to 1751 before the Industrial Revolution. From these core fossil-fuel CO2 emission time series, CDIAC has developed a number of additional data products to satisfy modeling needs and to address other questions aimed at improving our understanding of the global carbon cycle budget. For example, CDIAC also produces a time series of gridded fossil-fuel CO2 emission estimates and isotopic (e.g., C13) emissions estimates. The gridded data are generated using the methodology described in Andres et al. (2011) and provide monthly and annual estimates for 1751-2008 at 1° latitude by 1° longitude resolution. These gridded emission estimates are being used in the latest IPCC Scientific Assessment (AR4). Isotopic estimates are possible thanks to detailed information for individual nations regarding the carbon content of select fuels (e.g., the carbon signature of natural gas from Russia). CDIAC has recently developed a relational database to house these baseline emissions estimates and associated derived products and a web-based interface to help users worldwide query these data holdings. Users can identify, explore and download desired CDIAC

Future projection of design storms using a GCM-informed weather generator

Science.gov (United States)

KIm, T. W.; Wi, S.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Valdés, J. B.

2017-12-01

The rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are one of the most common tools used to provide planners with a description of the frequency of extreme rainfall events of various intensities and durations. Therefore deriving appropriate IDF estimates is important to avoid malfunctions of water structures that cause huge damage. Evaluating IDF estimates in the context of climate change has become more important because projections from climate models suggest that the frequency of intense rainfall events will increase in the future due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the Bartlett-Lewis (BL) stochastic rainfall model is employed to generate annual maximum series of various sub-daily durations for test basins of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) project, and to derive the IDF curves in the context of climate changes projected by the North American Regional Climate Change (NARCCAP) models. From our results, it has been found that the observed annual rainfall maximum series is reasonably represented by the synthetic annual maximum series generated by the BL model. The observed data is perturbed by change factors to incorporate the NARCCAP climate change scenarios into the IDF estimates. The future IDF curves show a significant difference from the historical IDF curves calculated for the period 1968-2000. Overall, the projected IDF curves show an increasing trend over time. The impacts of changes in extreme rainfall on the hydrologic response of the MOPEX basins are also explored. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS-NH-2015-79] through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

Developing Science Operations Concepts for the Future of Planetary Surface Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Young, K. E.; Bleacher, J. E.; Rogers, A. D.; McAdam, A.; Evans, C. A.; Graff, T. G.; Garry, W. B.; Whelley,; Scheidt, S.; Carter, L.;

A time-series analysis of the crude oil spot and futures markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quan Jing.

1990-01-01

First, the existence of the relationship is tested. Second, after the relationship is established, it is tested to determine the direction of causality. Most of previous research on this issue ignored the first step, and the existence of the relationship was taken for granted. Unfortunately, however, this assumption is not justified since it does not necessarily hold. The first relationship investigated in this study is between the crude oil spot and futures prices. It is found that spot price leads futures prices instead of the futures price providing information on the spot price. Two additional relationships studied are those between the OPEC oil supply and the futures prices and that between the same supply and spot prices. In the case of OPEC supply and spot prices, a self-adaptive model with supply interruption dummy variables is introduced to study the price behavior. It is found that prices follow an adaptive process, that is, the previous price information offers powerful influence on the current price

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Non-Cost Barriers to Consumer Adoption of New Light-Duty Vehicle Technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stephens, T.

2013-03-01

Consumer preferences are key to the adoption of new vehicle technologies. Barriers to consumer adoption include price and other obstacles, such as limited driving range and charging infrastructure; unfamiliarity with the technology and uncertainty about direct benefits; limited makes and models with the technology; reputation or perception of the technology; standardization issues; and regulations. For each of these non-cost barriers, this report estimates an effective cost and summarizes underlying influences on consumer preferences, approximate magnitude and relative severity, and assesses potential actions, based on a comprehensive literature review. While the report concludes that non-cost barriers are significant, effective cost and potential market share are very uncertain. Policies and programs including opportunities for drivers to test drive advanced vehicles, general public outreach and information programs, incentives for providing charging and fueling infrastructure, and development of technology standards were examined for their ability to address barriers, but little quantitative data exists on the effectiveness of these measures. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Clinical and epidemiological rounds. Time series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

León-Álvarez, Alba Luz

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Analysis of time series is a technique that implicates the study of individuals or groups observed in successive moments in time. This type of analysis allows the study of potential causal relationships between different variables that change over time and relate to each other. It is the most important technique to make inferences about the future, predicting, on the basis or what has happened in the past and it is applied in different disciplines of knowledge. Here we discuss different components of time series, the analysis technique and specific examples in health research.

Kayenta advanced series compensation operational experience

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-01-01

The world's first three-phase, thyristor-controlled series compensation scheme with continuously variable impedance has been introduced into a transmission system. Energized and dedicated in September 1992, the installation was placed into commercial operation in January 1993 and has provided over one year of operating experience. This paper describes the 230 kV, 330 MVAr (60 Hz) advanced series compensation (ASC) project, located in north-eastern Arizona at Kayenta Substation on the 320 km Glen Canyon-Shiprock transmission line. The paper describes operating experiences, coordination with phase shifting transformer, phase shifter failure, platform power, system disturbances, and future plans.

US computer research networks: Current and future

Science.gov (United States)

Kratochvil, D.; Sood, D.; Verostko, A.

1989-01-01

During the last decade, NASA LeRC's Communication Program has conducted a series of telecommunications forecasting studies to project trends and requirements and to identify critical telecommunications technologies that must be developed to meet future requirements. The Government Networks Division of Contel Federal Systems has assisted NASA in these studies, and the current study builds upon these earlier efforts. The current major thrust of the NASA Communications Program is aimed at developing the high risk, advanced, communications satellite and terminal technologies required to significantly increase the capacity of future communications systems. Also, major new technological, economic, and social-political events and trends are now shaping the communications industry of the future. Therefore, a re-examination of future telecommunications needs and requirements is necessary to enable NASA to make management decisions in its Communications Program and to ensure the proper technologies and systems are addressed. This study, through a series of Task Orders, is helping NASA define the likely communication service needs and requirements of the future and thereby ensuring that the most appropriate technology developments are pursued.

The Blue Planet: Seas & Oceans. Young Discovery Library Series.

Science.gov (United States)

de Beauregard, Diane Costa

This book is written for children ages 5 through 10. Part of a series designed to develop their curiosity, facinate them and educate them, this volume explores the physical and environmental characteristics of the world's oceans. Topics are: (1) human exploration; (2) the food chain; (3) coral reefs; (4) currents and tides; (5) waves; (6)…

Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Condron, Alan [Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States); Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA (United States)

2017-09-30

The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS show the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.

Time series momentum and contrarian effects in the Chinese stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Huai-Long; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2017-10-01

This paper concentrates on the time series momentum or contrarian effects in the Chinese stock market. We evaluate the performance of the time series momentum strategy applied to major stock indices in mainland China and explore the relation between the performance of time series momentum strategies and some firm-specific characteristics. Our findings indicate that there is a time series momentum effect in the short run and a contrarian effect in the long run in the Chinese stock market. The performances of the time series momentum and contrarian strategies are highly dependent on the look-back and holding periods and firm-specific characteristics.

Trends in exploration and exploration equipment for uranium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raitz, C.H.

1976-01-01

Uranium exploration once again is in a ''boom'' cycle. The energy needs of the OPEC and non-OPEC countries alike have created a demand for uranium which appears certain to increase in future years. In turn, this demand has stimulated a dramatic rise in both the price of uranium and the exploration activity necessary to discover new reserves. One immediate reaction to the sudden increase in uranium exploration activity has been the evaluation of old exploration methods and equipment. This paper briefly reviews some of the traditional equipment and techniques which currently are being refined and updated. Undoubtedly this equipment, complemented with good exploration planning and judgment, will continue to be relied upon for many years and will lead to the discovery of many new deposits. The paper also covers in greater detail some of the newer, less conventional techniques and equipment now being introduced for uranium exploration. These new methods may be expected to keep this country in the forefront among the uranium producers of the world

Past, Current and Future of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) Series

Science.gov (United States)

Kachi, M.; Maeda, T.; Ono, N.; Tomii, N.; Kasahara, M.; Mokuno, M.; Sobue, S.

2017-12-01

Due to its penetrating capability, passive microwave remote sensing provides all-weather observation of the Earth's surface through clouds, and has bulk sensitivity to atmospheric column and some land surface layers such as snow. The first AMSR series instrument on orbit was the AMSR for EOS (AMSR-E) provided to NASA's Aqua satellite launched in May 2002. AMSR-E had 1.6-m diameter antenna and 14 channels with V and H polarizations including surface-sensitive C-band (6.9-GHz) channels those were not available in previous passive microwave imagers. Instant Field Of View (IFOV) of AMSR-E is largely improved due to antenna size. This IFOV improvement mainly contribute to C-band channel since its IFOV is larger (75x43-km) even though bigger antenna size. The latest AMSR series instrument on orbit, AMSR-2, was launched in May 2012 on board the Global Change Observation Mission - Water (GCOM-W) satellite. The GCOM-W satellite was injected to the A-train orbit to keep observation continuities to AMSR-E and seek synergies with the other A-train constellation satellites. Antenna size of AMSR-2 is 2.0-m diameter with 16 channels. Channel set is almost identical to that of AMSR-E, but new 7.3-GHz channels are added along with previous 6.9-GHz channels to mitigate influence of Radio Frequency Interferences (RFIs) in brightness temperature. IFOV of AMSR-2 is also improved from AMSR-E due to larger antenna size. AMSR-2 has completed its 5-year designed mission life in May 2017, and continues scientific observations without any serious problem. Besides the 10-month gaps between AMSR-E and AMSR2, the AMSR series provide long-term high-resolution and highly-frequent global observation of water-related parameters over 15-year. Upon the success of AMSR series, we have started discussion of possible follow-on mission with various user communities as well as expansion of application of AMSR-2 and follow-on data in new fields. Highest priority from users is gap-less, in terms of both

FutureCoast: "Listen to your futures"

Science.gov (United States)

Pfirman, S. L.; Eklund, K.; Thacher, S.; Orlove, B. S.; Diane Stovall-Soto, G.; Brunacini, J.; Hernandez, T.

2014-12-01

Two science-arts approaches are emerging as effective means to convey "futurethinking" to learners: systems gaming and experiential futures. FutureCoast exemplifies the latter: by engaging participants with voicemails supposedly leaking from the cloud of possible futures, the storymaking game frames the complexities of climate science in relatable contexts. Because participants make the voicemails themselves, FutureCoast opens up creative ways for people to think about possibly climate-changed futures and personal ways to talk about them. FutureCoast is a project of the PoLAR Partnership with a target audience of informal adult learners primarily reached via mobile devices and online platforms. Scientists increasingly use scenarios and storylines as ways to explore the implications of environmental change and societal choices. Stories help people make connections across experiences and disciplines and link large-scale events to personal consequences. By making the future seem real today, FutureCoast's framework helps people visualize and plan for future climate changes. The voicemails contributed to FutureCoast are spread through the game's intended timeframe (2020 through 2065). Based on initial content analysis of voicemail text, common themes include ecosystems and landscapes, weather, technology, societal issues, governance and policy. Other issues somewhat less frequently discussed include security, food, industry and business, health, energy, infrastructure, water, economy, and migration. Further voicemail analysis is examining: temporal dimensions (salient time frames, short vs. long term issues, intergenerational, etc.), content (adaptation vs. mitigation, challenges vs. opportunities, etc.), and emotion (hopeful, resigned, etc. and overall emotional context). FutureCoast also engaged audiences through facilitated in-person experiences, geocaching events, and social media (Tumblr, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube). Analysis of the project suggests story

Exploration for fossil and nuclear fuels from orbital altitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Short, N. M.

1977-01-01

The paper discusses the application of remotely sensed data from orbital satellites to the exploration for fossil and nuclear fuels. Geological applications of Landsat data are described including map editing, lithologic identification, structural geology, and mineral exploration. Specific results in fuel exploration are reviewed and a series of related Landsat images is included.

Futures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

2017-01-01

Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

Time series prediction: statistical and neural techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Zahirniak, Daniel R.; DeSimio, Martin P.

1996-03-01

In this paper we compare the performance of nonlinear neural network techniques to those of linear filtering techniques in the prediction of time series. Specifically, we compare the results of using the nonlinear systems, known as multilayer perceptron and radial basis function neural networks, with the results obtained using the conventional linear Wiener filter, Kalman filter and Widrow-Hoff adaptive filter in predicting future values of stationary and non- stationary time series. Our results indicate the performance of each type of system is heavily dependent upon the form of the time series being predicted and the size of the system used. In particular, the linear filters perform adequately for linear or near linear processes while the nonlinear systems perform better for nonlinear processes. Since the linear systems take much less time to be developed, they should be tried prior to using the nonlinear systems when the linearity properties of the time series process are unknown.

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Non-Cost Barriers to Consumer Adoption of New Light-Duty Vehicle Technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stephens, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2013-03-01

Consumer preferences are key to the adoption of new vehicle technologies. Barriers to consumer adoption include price and other obstacles, such as limited driving range and charging infrastructure; unfamiliarity with the technology and uncertainty about direct benefits; limited makes and models with the technology; reputation or perception of the technology; standardization issues; and regulations. For each of these non-cost barriers, this report estimates an effective cost and summarizes underlying influences on consumer preferences, approximate magnitude and relative severity, and assesses potential actions, based on a comprehensive literature review. While the report concludes that non-cost barriers are significant, effective cost and potential market share are very uncertain. Policies and programs including opportunities for drivers to test drive advanced vehicles, general public outreach and information programs, incentives for providing charging and fueling infrastructure, and development of technology standards were examined for their ability to address barriers, but little quantitative data exists on the effectiveness of these measures. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation. View all reports on the TEF Web page, http://www.eere.energy.gov/analysis/transportationenergyfutures/index.html.

Exploring the future change space for fire weather in southeast Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, Hamish; Evans, Jason P.

2018-05-01

High-resolution projections of climate change impacts on fire weather conditions in southeast Australia out to 2080 are presented. Fire weather is represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble. Changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from - 337 (- 21%) to + 657 (+ 24%) in coastal areas and - 237 (- 12%) to + 1143 (+ 26%) in inland areas. A similar spread is projected in extreme FFDI values. In coastal regions, the number of prescribed burning days is projected to change from - 11 to + 10 in autumn and - 10 to + 3 in spring. Across the ensemble, the most significant increases in fire weather and decreases in prescribed burn windows are projected to take place in spring. Partial bias correction of FFDI leads to similar projections but with a greater spread, particularly in extreme values. The partially bias-corrected FFDI performs similarly to uncorrected FFDI compared to the observed annual cumulative FFDI (ensemble root mean square error spans 540 to 1583 for uncorrected output and 695 to 1398 for corrected) but is generally worse for FFDI values above 50. This emphasizes the need to consider inter-variable relationships when bias-correcting for complex phenomena such as fire weather. There is considerable uncertainty in the future trajectory of fire weather in southeast Australia, including the potential for less prescribed burning days and substantially greater fire danger in spring. Selecting climate models on the basis of multiple criteria can lead to more informative projections and allow an explicit exploration of uncertainty.

Explorations in Statistics: Standard Deviations and Standard Errors

Science.gov (United States)

Curran-Everett, Douglas

2008-01-01

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This series in "Advances in Physiology Education" provides an opportunity to do just that: we will investigate basic concepts in statistics using the free software package R. Because this series uses R solely as a vehicle…

Egalitarian sexism: Kant’s defense of monogamy and its implications for the future evolution of marriage II

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Palmquist Stephen R.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This second part of a two-part series exploring implications of the natural differences between the sexes for the cultural evolution of marriage considers how the institution of marriage might evolve, if Kant’s reasons for defending monogamy are extended and applied to a future culture. After summarizing the philosophical framework for making cross-cultural ethical assessments that was introduced in Part I and then explaining Kant’s portrayal of marriage as an antidote to the objectifying tendencies of sex, I summarize Kant’s reasons for rejecting polygamy and for viewing monogamy as the only ethically acceptable form of marriage. Finally, I argue that if we apply Kantian principles to the real situation of marriage in many modern cultures, and if we wish to maintain a legitimate place for marriage in the future evolution of human culture, then the future evolution of marriage laws must recognize polyfidelity (i.e., plural marriages for both men and women as being just as legitimate as monogamy.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation: Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; DeFlorio, J.; McKenzie, E.; Tao, W.; Vimmerstedt, L.

2013-03-01

Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategies are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation. Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Porter, C. D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Brown, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); DeFlorio, J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); McKenzie, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Tao, W. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States)

2013-03-01

Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategies are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Petroleum Legislation and Administration: Past, Present, Future and Impact on Exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ofurhie, M. A.

2002-01-01

The need to exploit the vast petroleum resources of the country in an optimally efficient manner demands a versatile, responsive, workable legislation and its administration.Therefore, Government enacted the Mineral Oils Act of 1914, which regulates the right to search and develop mineral oil efficiently. Specifically, Section 6 (1) (a) provided that Shell Darcy, a British company, had the sole right to operate the Nigerian province as its concession thereby disqualifying other non-British companies from exploration opportunities.The 1914 Act was modified in 1958 to accommodate non-British companies to compete for acreage. Thus, exploration activities increased thereby generating more reserves. Furthermore, exploration activities improved in the frontier areas because government granted the operators incentives, which expensed one exploratory and two appraisal wells as an offset against PPT.The Government promulgated the Petroleum Act of 1969 to ensure good management of the abundant petroleum resources found in the Niger Delta basin. The Act vests the ownership and control of all petroleum resources in the state. The marginal fields legislation strives to encourage more participation by indigenous companies, while at the same time boosting national producible reserves through a farm-in arrangement with concessionaires. Legislations on deep-water exploration have encouraged exploration activities in that terrain though it poses a great challenge to technology. Government's desire to eradicate environmental pollution and improve revenue has led it to enact legislations that would properly position Nigerian gas to compete favourably in the world market. Joint studies by government and operators in viable options for utilizing uncommitted gas through projects such as Gas-to Liquid, NGL and IPP are on-going.Although many of the Legislations have not changed by a large margin, their dynamic administration accommodates their reviews to match increasingly difficult safety

The Future as Fiction.

Science.gov (United States)

Jennings, Lane

Because good future studies and good fiction have a great deal in common, futurists need to recognize and apply the skills of word artists from all genres, particularly novelists and short-story writers. One form of science fiction that futurists could use is the scenario, which is an exploration of an alternative future. A good scenario should be…

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health

Science.gov (United States)

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-01

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Asymmetrical floating point array processors, their application to exploration and exploitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Geriepy, B L

1983-01-01

An asymmetrical floating point array processor is a special-purpose scientific computer which operates under asymmetrical control of a host computer. Although an array processor can receive fixed point input and produce fixed point output, its primary mode of operation is floating point. The first generation of array processors was oriented towards time series information. The next generation of array processors has proved much more versatile and their applicability ranges from petroleum reservoir simulation to speech syntheses. Array processors are becoming commonplace in mining, the primary usage being construction of grids-by usual methods or by kriging. The Australian mining community is among the world's leaders in regard to computer-assisted exploration and exploitation systems. Part of this leadership role must be providing guidance to computer vendors in regard to current and future requirements.

Variable Selection in Time Series Forecasting Using Random Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hristos Tyralis

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Time series forecasting using machine learning algorithms has gained popularity recently. Random forest is a machine learning algorithm implemented in time series forecasting; however, most of its forecasting properties have remained unexplored. Here we focus on assessing the performance of random forests in one-step forecasting using two large datasets of short time series with the aim to suggest an optimal set of predictor variables. Furthermore, we compare its performance to benchmarking methods. The first dataset is composed by 16,000 simulated time series from a variety of Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA models. The second dataset consists of 135 mean annual temperature time series. The highest predictive performance of RF is observed when using a low number of recent lagged predictor variables. This outcome could be useful in relevant future applications, with the prospect to achieve higher predictive accuracy.

Technology Applications that Support Space Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Henderson, Edward M.; Holderman, Mark L.

2011-01-01

Several enabling technologies have been identified that would provide significant benefits for future space exploration. In-Space demonstrations should be chosen so that these technologies will have a timely opportunity to improve efficiencies and reduce risks for future spaceflight. An early window exists to conduct ground and flight demonstrations that make use of existing assets that were developed for the Space Shuttle and the Constellation programs. The work could be mostly performed using residual program civil servants, existing facilities and current commercial launch capabilities. Partnering these abilities with the emerging commercial sector, along with other government agencies, academia and with international partners would provide an affordable and timely approach to get the launch costs down for these payloads, while increasing the derived benefits to a larger community. There is a wide scope of varied technologies that are being considered to help future space exploration. However, the cost and schedule would be prohibitive to demonstrate all these in the near term. Determining which technologies would yield the best return in meeting our future space needs is critical to building an achievable Space Architecture that allows exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit. The best mix of technologies is clearly to be based on our future needs, but also must take into account the availability of existing assets and supporting partners. Selecting those technologies that have complimentary applications will provide the most knowledge, with reasonable cost, for future use The plan is to develop those applications that not only mature the technology but actually perform a useful task or mission. These might include such functions as satellite servicing, a propulsion stage, processing lunar regolith, generating and transmitting solar power, cryogenic fluid transfer and storage and artificial gravity. Applications have been selected for assessment for future

The Explorer program for astronomy and astrophysics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savage, B.D.; Becklin, E.E.; Cassinelli, J.P.; Dupree, A.K.; Elliot, J.L.; Hoffmann, W.F.; Hudson, H.S.; Jura, M.; Kurfess, J.; Murray, S.S.

1986-01-01

This report was prepared to provide NASA with a strategy for proceeding with Explorer-class programs for research in space astronomy and astrophysics. The role of Explorers in astronomy and astrophysics and their past accomplishments are discussed, as are current and future astronomy and astrophysics Explorers. Specific cost needs for an effective Explorer program are considered

True or spurious long memory in volatility: Further evidence on the energy futures markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charfeddine, Lanouar

2014-01-01

The main goal of this paper is to investigate whether the long memory behavior observed in many volatility energy futures markets series is a spurious behavior or not. For this purpose, we employ a wide variety of advanced volatility models that allow for long memory and/or structural changes: the GARCH(1,1), the FIGARCH(1,d,1), the Adaptative-GARCH(1,1,k), and the Adaptative-FIGARCH(1,d,1,k) models. To compare forecasting ability of these models, we use out-of-sample forecasting performance. Using the crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and propane volatility futures energy time series with 1-month and 3-month maturities, we found that five out of the eight time series are characterized by both long memory and structural breaks. For these series, dates of breaks coincide with some major economics and financial events. For the three other time series, we found strong evidence of long memory in volatility. - Highlights: • This paper investigates the long memory properties of the futures energy volatility. • We estimate a variety of GARCH-class of models. • The Adaptative-FIGARCH(1,d,1,k) model has been used to account for both long memory and breaks. • 5 out of the 8 futures energy series are characterized by both long memory and structural breaks. • The 3 other series are characterized by only long range dependence in volatility

Robots and humans: synergy in planetary exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Landis, Geoffrey A.

2004-01-01

How will humans and robots cooperate in future planetary exploration? Are humans and robots fundamentally separate modes of exploration, or can humans and robots work together to synergistically explore the solar system? It is proposed that humans and robots can work together in exploring the planets by use of telerobotic operation to expand the function and usefulness of human explorers, and to extend the range of human exploration to hostile environments. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Uranium exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Voto, R.H.

1984-01-01

This paper is a review of the methodology and technology that are currently being used in varying degrees in uranium exploration activities worldwide. Since uranium is ubiquitous and occurs in trace amounts (0.2 to 5 ppm) in virtually all rocks of the crust of the earth, exploration for uranium is essentially the search of geologic environments in which geologic processes have produced unusual concentrations of uranium. Since the level of concentration of uranium of economic interest is dependent on the present and future price of uranium, it is appropriate here to review briefly the economic realities of uranium-fueled power generation. (author)

Managing the exploration process: conference papers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-01-01

The conference includes eight articles on the theme of the meeting including: I - creating an environment that fosters exploration and development ideas; II - integrating a global perspective when setting objectives for exploration planning; III - practical issues is setting exploration objectives; IV - portfolio analysis of exploration prospect of ideas; V - the effective presentation of exploration prospects; V I - the future of information management; VII - assessing exploration assets; and V III - environmental and regulatory considerations when planning an exploratory well. Individual articles indexed/abstracted separately include: articles I, II, III, VII, and V III

Complexity testing techniques for time series data: A comprehensive literature review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Ling; Lv, Huiling; Yang, Fengmei; Yu, Lean

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A literature review of complexity testing techniques for time series data is provided. • Complexity measurements can generally fall into fractality, methods derived from nonlinear dynamics and entropy. • Different types investigate time series data from different perspectives. • Measures, applications and future studies for each type are presented. - Abstract: Complexity may be one of the most important measurements for analysing time series data; it covers or is at least closely related to different data characteristics within nonlinear system theory. This paper provides a comprehensive literature review examining the complexity testing techniques for time series data. According to different features, the complexity measurements for time series data can be divided into three primary groups, i.e., fractality (mono- or multi-fractality) for self-similarity (or system memorability or long-term persistence), methods derived from nonlinear dynamics (via attractor invariants or diagram descriptions) for attractor properties in phase-space, and entropy (structural or dynamical entropy) for the disorder state of a nonlinear system. These estimations analyse time series dynamics from different perspectives but are closely related to or even dependent on each other at the same time. In particular, a weaker self-similarity, a more complex structure of attractor, and a higher-level disorder state of a system consistently indicate that the observed time series data are at a higher level of complexity. Accordingly, this paper presents a historical tour of the important measures and works for each group, as well as ground-breaking and recent applications and future research directions.

Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kopnina, H.N.

2014-01-01

This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into

Continuing to Build a Community Consensus on the Future of Human Space Flight: Report of the Fourth Community Workshop on Achievability and Sustainability of Human Exploration of Mars (AM IV)

Science.gov (United States)

Thronson, Harley A.; Baker, John; Beaty, David; Carberry, Chris; Craig, Mark; Davis, Richard M.; Drake, Bret G.; Cassady, Joseph; Hays, Lindsay; Hoffman, Stephen J.;

Supercomputing - Use Cases, Advances, The Future (1/2)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2017-01-01

Supercomputing has become a staple of science and the poster child for aggressive developments in silicon technology, energy efficiency and programming. In this series we examine the key components of supercomputing setups and the various advances – recent and past – that made headlines and delivered bigger and bigger machines. We also take a closer look at the future prospects of supercomputing, and the extent of its overlap with high throughput computing, in the context of main use cases ranging from oil exploration to market simulation. On the first day, we will focus on the history and theory of supercomputing, the top500 list and the hardware that makes supercomputers tick. Lecturer's short bio: Andrzej Nowak has 10 years of experience in computing technologies, primarily from CERN openlab and Intel. At CERN, he managed a research lab collaborating with Intel and was part of the openlab Chief Technology Office. Andrzej also worked closely and initiated projects with the private sector (e.g. HP an...

Explore Your Future: Careers in the Natural Gas Industry.

Science.gov (United States)

American Gas Association, Arlington, VA. Educational Services.

This career awareness booklet provides information and activities to help youth prepare for career and explore jobs in the natural gas industry. Students are exposed to career planning ideas and activities; they learn about a wide variety of industry jobs, what workers say about their jobs, and how the industry operates. Five sections are…

A Leader's Guide to Exploring Parenting = Manual Del Orientador para Explorando el Arte de ser Padres.

Science.gov (United States)

Littlejohn (Roy) Associates, Inc., Washington, DC.

This document, provided here in separate English and Spanish versions, offers guidelines for leaders implementing the "Exploring Parenting" series of workshops with Head Start parents. The guide is divided into four sections. Section 1, "Introduction," outlines the philosophy undergirding the Exploring Parenting series and…

Exploring the Future of Academic Libraries: A Definitional Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Sennyey, Pongracz; Ross, Lyman; Mills, Caroline

2009-01-01

The central argument of the article is that while the building, the collection and the staff were inseparably linked, in a digital environment these facets of the library are diverging. This divergence clouds the process of envisioning a future for the library, but, if properly defined, it is a source of clarity, which sheds light on strategic…

A window-based time series feature extraction method.

Science.gov (United States)

Katircioglu-Öztürk, Deniz; Güvenir, H Altay; Ravens, Ursula; Baykal, Nazife

2017-10-01

This study proposes a robust similarity score-based time series feature extraction method that is termed as Window-based Time series Feature ExtraCtion (WTC). Specifically, WTC generates domain-interpretable results and involves significantly low computational complexity thereby rendering itself useful for densely sampled and populated time series datasets. In this study, WTC is applied to a proprietary action potential (AP) time series dataset on human cardiomyocytes and three precordial leads from a publicly available electrocardiogram (ECG) dataset. This is followed by comparing WTC in terms of predictive accuracy and computational complexity with shapelet transform and fast shapelet transform (which constitutes an accelerated variant of the shapelet transform). The results indicate that WTC achieves a slightly higher classification performance with significantly lower execution time when compared to its shapelet-based alternatives. With respect to its interpretable features, WTC has a potential to enable medical experts to explore definitive common trends in novel datasets. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space Studies of the Earth-Moon System, Planets, and Small Bodies of the Solar System (B) Past, Present and Future of Small Body Science and Exploration (B0.4)

Science.gov (United States)

Abell, Paul; Mazanek, Dan; Reeves, Dan; Chodas, Paul; Gates, Michele; Johnson, Lindley; Ticker, Ronald

2016-01-01

To achieve its long-term goal of sending humans to Mars, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) plans to proceed in a series of incrementally more complex human space flight missions. Today, human flight experience extends only to Low- Earth Orbit (LEO), and should problems arise during a mission, the crew can return to Earth in a matter of minutes to hours. The next logical step for human space flight is to gain flight experience in the vicinity of the Moon. These cis-lunar missions provide a "proving ground" for the testing of systems and operations while still accommodating an emergency return path to the Earth that would last only several days. Cis-lunar mission experience will be essential for more ambitious human missions beyond the Earth-Moon system, which will require weeks, months, or even years of transit time. In addition, NASA has been given a Grand Challenge to find all asteroid threats to human populations and know what to do about them. Obtaining knowledge of asteroid physical properties combined with performing technology demonstrations for planetary defense provide much needed information to address the issue of future asteroid impacts on Earth. Hence the combined objectives of human exploration and planetary defense give a rationale for the Asteroid Re-direct Mission (ARM).

Hilbert's Grand Hotel with a series twist

Science.gov (United States)

Wijeratne, Chanakya; Mamolo, Ami; Zazkis, Rina

2014-08-01

This paper presents a new twist on a familiar paradox, linking seemingly disparate ideas under one roof. Hilbert's Grand Hotel, a paradox which addresses infinite set comparisons is adapted and extended to incorporate ideas from calculus - namely infinite series. We present and resolve several variations, and invite the reader to explore his or her own variations.

TechEdSat Nano-Satellite Series Fact Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Murbach, Marcus; Martinez, Andres; Guarneros Luna, Ali

2014-01-01

TechEdSat-3p is the second generation in the TechEdSat-X series. The TechEdSat Series uses the CubeSat standards established by the California Polytechnic State University Cal Poly), San Luis Obispo. With typical blocks being constructed from 1-unit (1U 10x10x10 cm) increments, the TechEdSat-3p has a 3U volume with a 30 cm length. The project uniquely pairs advanced university students with NASA researchers in a rapid design-to-flight experience lasting 1-2 semesters.The TechEdSat Nano-Satellite Series provides a rapid platform for testing technologies for future NASA Earth and planetary missions, as well as providing students with an early exposure to flight hardware development and management.

Data for global solutions: How new technologies can help people to re-imagine the future of cities and more

Science.gov (United States)

Tewksbury, J.; Gaffney, O.; Young, D.

2016-12-01

People are more willing to accept and act on the science surrounding global environmental change when they can see themselves in that change - or when they can understand how global processes like climate change impact their lives in concrete and intimate ways. The digital revolution presents unique opportunities to make those sorts of connections. We will explore how new technologies can help to immerse users in the challenges of global sustainability and deepen their sense of personal involvement. We will draw on case studies from the Future Earth Media Lab, a communications and research initiative that was formed by Future Earth, the International Council for Science (ICSU) and Globaïa in 2015. The Media Lab was set up to bring together partners from science, technology, art and design to co-create products and experiences that can change the way we communicate the challenges of the world's most intractable problems, with the potential to shift mindsets and behaviours. We are at the very beginning of this 10-year project to explore how advances in virtual reality, augmented reality, data visualization and artificial intelligence will reshape how non-scientific audiences engage with science. The session will focus on results of the most recent projects launched in 2016: a hackathon series with the Iris.AI artificial intelligence project to test the limits of AI for searches based on framed research questions; a global hackathon series around using virtual reality to communicate global change challenges and an immersive space co-created with data visualization experts at the UN's biggest conference on sustainable urbanization at Quito, Ecuador.

Towards human exploration of space: the THESEUS review series on neurophysiology research priorities.

Science.gov (United States)

White, Olivier; Clément, Gilles; Fortrat, Jacques-Olivier; Pavy-LeTraon, Anne; Thonnard, Jean-Louis; Blanc, Stéphane; Wuyts, Floris L; Paloski, William H

2016-01-01

The THESEUS project (Towards Human Exploration of Space: a European Strategy), initiated within the seventh Framework Programme by the European Commission, aimed at providing a cross-cutting, life-science-based roadmap for Europe's strategy towards human exploration of long space missions, and its relevance to applications on Earth. This topic was investigated by experts in the field, in the framework of the THESEUS project whose aim was to develop an integrated life sciences research roadmap regarding human space exploration. In particular, decades of research have shown that altered gravity impairs neurological responses at large, such as perception, sleep, motor control, and cognitive factors. International experts established a list of key issues that should be addressed in that context and provided several recommendations such as a maximal exploitation of currently available resources on Earth and in space.

EnerFuture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

EnerFuture offers short term energy demand forecasts for oil, gas, electricity and coal, in the 52 major energy countries in the world. Also included are the historical data series since 1997, extracted from the international ENERDATA Information System. It contents electricity consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture; oil consumption per sector: industry, transport, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from oil; gas consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from gas; coal consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from coal. (A.L.B.)

EIA completes corrections to drilling estimates series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trapmann, W.; Shambaugh, P.

1998-01-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has published monthly and annual estimates of US oil and gas drilling activity since 1978. These data are key information for many industry analysts, serving as a leading indicator of trends in the industry and a barometer of general industry status. They are assessed directly for trends, as well as in combination with other measures to assess the productivity and profitability of upstream industry operations. They are major reference points for federal and state policymakers. EIA does not itself collect drilling activity data. Instead, it relies on an external source for data on oil, bas, and dry well completions. These data are provided to EIA monthly on an as reported basis. During a recent effort to enhance EIA's well completion data system, the detection of unusual patterns in the well completion data as received led to an expanded examination of these data. Substantial discrepancies between the data as received by EIA and correct record counts since 1987 were identified. For total wells by year, the errors ranged up to more than 2,300 wells, 11% of the 1995 total, and the impact of these errors extended backward in time to at least the early 1980s. When the magnitude and extent of the as reported well completion data problem were confirmed, EIA suspended its publication and distribution of updated drilling data. EIA staff proceeded to acquire replacement files with the as reported records and then revise the statistical portion of its drilling data system to reflect the new information. The replacement files unfortunately also included erroneous data based on the improper allocation of wells between exploration and development. EIA has now resolved the two data problems and generated revised time series estimates for well completions and footage drilled. The paper describes the problems in the data, differences between the series, and maintaining future data quality

Planetary exploration with nanosatellites: a space campus for future technology development

Science.gov (United States)

Drossart, P.; Mosser, B.; Segret, B.

2017-09-01

Planetary exploration is at the eve of a revolution through nanosatellites accompanying larger missions, or freely cruising in the solar system, providing a man-made cosmic web for in situ or remote sensing exploration of the Solar System. A first step is to build a specific place dedicated to nanosatellite development. The context of the CCERES PSL space campus presents an environment for nanosatellite testing and integration, a concurrent engineering facility room for project analysis and science environment dedicated to this task.

B physics, now and future

CERN Document Server

CERN. Geneva

1995-01-01

The b-quark surprised us already twice. Unexpectedly large B-meson lifetimes told us that third generation of the quark pair mixed very little with others. The later discovery of large Bo - BO mixing showed us that the top quark mass was much larger than expected. There could be a third surprise, may be in CP violation. In this lectuere series, we quickly review the past and present of B - physics. This is followed by a more detailed discussion on future,in particular CP violation studies with future accelerators.

The Early Identity Exploration Scale-a measure of initial exploration in breadth during early adolescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kłym, Maria; Cieciuch, Jan

2015-01-01

The existing models and measurement instruments concerning identity appear to primarily focus on adolescence and early adulthood, and studies extending identity research to younger stages of life are scarce. There has been a particular lack of instruments measuring the early stages of identity formation, especially the process of exploration, which has been portrayed as a central process during this particular period of life. Our aim is to help fill the gap in the literature and facilitate further studies of the exploration process by providing an appropriate instrument to measure exploration in breadth during early adolescence. As a coherent and mature sense of identity is closely associated with psychosocial well-being, an effective identity exploration scale will enable researchers to assess the predictors of young adolescents' well-being. We propose a model of identity exploration domains based on the literature and considering 12 exploration domains: physical appearance, free time, family, work, boyfriend-girlfriend relationships, own opinion formation, perception of own place in the life cycle, self-reflection, future, future family, outlook on life, and attitude toward rules. The study was conducted on a group of N = 454 adolescents (50% males, M age = 13.04, SD = 0.98). Both reliability and structural validity, as verified by confirmatory factor analysis were satisfactory. The instrument is invariant across gender groups at the scalar level of measurement invariance.

Asteroid exploration and utilization: The Hawking explorer

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Alan; Date, Medha; Duarte, Manny; Erian, Neil; Gafka, George; Kappler, Peter; Patano, Scott; Perez, Martin; Ponce, Edgar; Radovich, Brian

1991-01-01

The Earth is nearing depletion of its natural resources at a time when human beings are rapidly expanding the frontiers of space. The resources which may exist on asteroids could have enormous potential for aiding and enhancing human space exploration as well as life on Earth. With the possibly limitless opportunities that exist, it is clear that asteroids are the next step for human existence in space. This report comprises the efforts of NEW WORLDS, Inc. to develop a comprehensive design for an asteroid exploration/sample return mission. This mission is a precursor to proof-of-concept missions that will investigate the validity of mining and materials processing on an asteroid. Project STONER (Systematic Transfer of Near Earth Resources) is based on two utilization scenarios: (1) moving an asteroid to an advantageous location for use by Earth; and (2) mining an asteroids and transporting raw materials back to Earth. The asteroid explorer/sample return mission is designed in the context of both scenarios and is the first phase of a long range plane for humans to utilize asteroid resources. The report concentrates specifically on the selection of the most promising asteroids for exploration and the development of an exploration scenario. Future utilization as well as subsystem requirements of an asteroid sample return probe are also addressed.

Modeling climate change impacts on combined sewer overflow using synthetic precipitation time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Bendel, David; Beck, Ferdinand; Dittmer, Ulrich

2013-01-01

In the presented study climate change impacts on combined sewer overflows (CSOs) in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Southern Germany, were assessed based on continuous long-term rainfall-runoff simulations. As input data, synthetic rainfall time series were used. The applied precipitation generator NiedSim-Klima accounts for climate change effects on precipitation patterns. Time series for the past (1961-1990) and future (2041-2050) were generated for various locations. Comparing the simulated CSO activity of both periods we observe significantly higher overflow frequencies for the future. Changes in overflow volume and overflow duration depend on the type of overflow structure. Both values will increase at simple CSO structures that merely divide the flow, whereas they will decrease when the CSO structure is combined with a storage tank. However, there is a wide variation between the results of different precipitation time series (representative for different locations).

Governance of the future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Galløe, Lotte Rannveig

a different future for both parents and children. Thus, the approach to PMTO as a technology of the future indicates its expected prevalence in the future and its attempt to reach in to the future becoming of the child. The technology’s involvement of the relatives and its orientation towards shaping......In my presentation I will explore the concept, ‘technology of the future’, in public governance. Public governance within social services aims at changing the existing conditions for the marginalized citizens including children with special needs. I pose the question: what happens if public...... governance seek to chance the possible future conditions and targets the marginalized child’s relatives? Parent Management Training (PMTO) is studied as a technology of the future that expands and transforms governance. PMTO targets parents with aggressive and asocial children and aims to “create the parent...

News, volatility and jumps: the case of Natural Gas futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borovkova, S.A.; Mahakena, D.

2015-01-01

We investigate the impact of news sentiment on the price dynamics of natural gas futures. We propose a Local News Sentiment Level model, based on the Local Level model of Durbin and Koopman [Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods, 2001], to construct a running series of news sentiment from

Hispanic Vocational Exploration Project. Final Report.

Science.gov (United States)

Centro De La Comunidad, Inc., New London, CT.

During its second year, the Hispanic Vocational Exploration Project recruited eighth and ninth grade Hispanic youth for a four-week cycle, after-school, career exploratory program at Southeastern Regional Vocational Technical School, Groton, Connecticut. A series of career education workshops was the other major project activity. Supportive…

Uranium exploration of the Colorado Plateau: interim staff report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-10-01

This report is an issue of the original draft copy of the Interim Staff Report on Uranium Exploration on the Colorado Plateau, dated June 1951. The original draft copy was only recently located and is being published at this time because of the interest in the contained historical content. The table of contents of this report lists: history of uranium mining; geology; proposed program for the geologic investigations section; general activities of industry and government; and future exploration of sedimentary uranium deposits and anticipated results. Under the proposed program section are: future of the copper-uranium deposits as a source of uranium; uraniferous asphaltite deposits; and commission exploration and future possibilities. The section on general activities of industry and government includes: exploratory and development drilling; field investigations and mapping; early geologic investigations and investigations by the US geological survey; and geophysical exploration. Tables are also presented on: uranium production by districts; US Geological survey drilling statistics; Colorado Exploration Branch drilling statistics; summary of drilling projects; and comparative yearly core-drill statistics on the Colorado Plateau

The Future of Federal Education Policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Guthrie, James W.

1983-01-01

This article explores the evolution of federal government policy on education during the past 20 years, points out trends likely to influence future policy, and projects possible future responses to these trends. The roles of educational interest groups instrumental in passing the legislation are described. (PP)

Fractal analysis and nonlinear forecasting of indoor 222Rn time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pausch, G.; Bossew, P.; Hofmann, W.; Steger, F.

1998-01-01

Fractal analyses of indoor 222 Rn time series were performed using different chaos theory based measurements such as time delay method, Hurst's rescaled range analysis, capacity (fractal) dimension, and Lyapunov exponent. For all time series we calculated only positive Lyapunov exponents which is a hint to chaos, while the Hurst exponents were well below 0.5, indicating antipersistent behaviour (past trends tend to reverse in the future). These time series were also analyzed with a nonlinear prediction method which allowed an estimation of the embedding dimensions with some restrictions, limiting the prediction to about three relative time steps. (orig.)

Using Disks as Models for Proofs of Series

Science.gov (United States)

Somchaipeng, Tongta; Kruatong, Tussatrin; Panijpan, Bhinyo

2012-01-01

Exploring and deriving proofs of closed-form expressions for series can be fun for students. However, for some students, a physical representation of such problems is more meaningful. Various approaches have been designed to help students visualize squares of sums and sums of squares; these approaches may be arithmetic-algebraic or combinatorial…

Human mortality effects of future concentrations of tropospheric ozone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

West, J.; Szopa, S.; Hauglustaine, D.A.

2007-01-01

Here we explore the effects of projected future changes in global ozone concentrations on premature human mortality, under three scenarios for 2030. We use daily surface ozone concentrations from a global atmospheric transport and chemistry model, and ozone-mortality relationships from daily time-series studies. The population-weighted annual average 8-h daily maximum ozone is projected to increase, relative to the present, in each of ten world regions under the SRES A2 scenario and the current legislation (CLE) scenario, with the largest growth in tropical regions, while decreases are projected in each region in the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenario. Emission reductions in the CLE scenario, relative to A2, are estimated to reduce about 190,000 premature human mortalities globally in 2030, with the most avoided mortalities in Africa. The MFR scenario will avoid about 460,000 premature mortalities relative to A2 in 2030, and 270,000 relative to CLE, with the greatest reductions in South Asia. (authors)

Past and Future of the Kyoto Protocol. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wijen, F.; Zoeteman, K.

2004-01-01

The present report reflects findings from a study on the realization of and prospects for the Kyoto Protocol. The purpose of the study was (1) to obtain insights into the factors that enabled the realization of the Kyoto Protocol, in particular the interactions among major parties involved; (2) to assess the future opportunities and threats of the Kyoto Protocol, in particular against the backdrop of an increasingly globalised world. The study was conducted from February up to December 2003 by (a) reviewing the literature, especially publications on the negotiation history of the Kyoto process, the social interactions enabling the realization of the Protocol, analyses of strengths and weaknesses, and future climate regimes; (b) conducting a series of interviews with representatives from government, academia, non-governmental organisations, and business, who have been - directly or indirectly - involved in the Kyoto process; (c) internal discussions,brainstorming and analysing the Protocol's strengths and weaknesses, possible future scenarios (including policy options), and the management of a possible failure of the Kyoto Protocol. The present report reflects and integrates the different sources. The first section deals with the past and the present. It discusses how the Kyoto Protocol could be realized despite the divergent interests, reflects on its architecture, and analyses major strengths and weaknesses. In the second section, we present possible future scenarios. We explore how different combinations of domestic and international commitment provide possible realities that national government may face when crafting climate policy. The third section provides an in-depth analysis of the possible event that the Kyoto Protocol fails. We discuss its definition and policy implications. The final section is reserved for overall conclusions and policy recommendations

Advances in Antithetic Time Series Analysis : Separating Fact from Artifact

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dennis Ridley

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The problem of biased time series mathematical model parameter estimates is well known to be insurmountable. When used to predict future values by extrapolation, even a de minimis bias will eventually grow into a large bias, with misleading results. This paper elucidates how combining antithetic time series' solves this baffling problem of bias in the fitted and forecast values by dynamic bias cancellation. Instead of growing to infinity, the average error can converge to a constant. (original abstract

Not my future? Core values and the neural representation of future events.

Science.gov (United States)

Brosch, Tobias; Stussi, Yoann; Desrichard, Olivier; Sander, David

2018-06-01

Individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values have been shown to put greater weight on the long-term consequences of their actions when making decisions. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the neural mechanisms underlying the evaluation of events occurring several decades in the future as well as the role of core values in these processes. Thirty-six participants viewed a series of events, consisting of potential consequences of climate change, which could occur in the near future (around 2030), and thus would be experienced by the participants themselves, or in the far future (around 2080). We observed increased activation in anterior VMPFC (BA11), a region involved in encoding the personal significance of future events, when participants were envisioning far future events, demonstrating for the first time that the role of the VMPFC in future projection extends to the time scale of decades. Importantly, this activation increase was observed only in participants with pronounced self-transcendence values measured by self-report questionnaire, as shown by a statistically significant interaction of temporal distance and value structure. These findings suggest that future projection mechanisms are modulated by self-transcendence values to allow for a more extensive simulation of far future events. Consistent with this, these participants reported similar concern ratings for near and far future events, whereas participants with pronounced self-enhancement values were more concerned about near future events. Our findings provide a neural substrate for the tendency of individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values to consider the long-term consequences of their actions.

Exploring the undulating plateau: the future of global oil supply.

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Peter M; Smith, Leta K

2014-01-13

In this paper, we analyse the factors that will influence long-term oil supply and describe the future form of the global oil supply profile as an 'undulating plateau' rather than an irreversible, short-term peak or an ever upward trend of increasing production. The ultimate transition from a world of relatively plentiful and cheap oil to one of tight supply and high cost will be slow and challenging. An understanding of the signposts for the future path of supply and the drivers of that profile will be critical to managing the transition. The ultimate form of the global supply curve may well be dictated by demand evolution rather than a limited resource endowment in the longer term. Several factors will probably control future global oil supply. We believe that the scale of global oil resource will not constitute a physical supply limit for at least the next two or three decades. However, all categories of oil resources are already more expensive to develop than in the past, requiring high oil prices to stimulate supply growth. Lower rates of oil demand growth relative to economic growth, combined with more challenging supply growth, will probably lead to an undulating plateau sometime after 2040, with demand from non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development states continuing to dominate. Upstream investment requirements and oil price volatility will increase towards and beyond the undulating production plateau. In this new world, high oil prices will induce demand destruction, fuel substitution and ever increasing energy efficiency. As we discuss below, the fundamental differences between the IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' (IHS CERA) view of the future of oil supply and many peak oil supply models are the timing of the onset of a dramatic slowdown in the rate of growth of supply and the existence or otherwise of a production plateau. We do not dispute that supply will plateau and eventually fall; the question is when, how and at what price

Exploring cosmic origins with CORE: Inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Finelli, F.; Bucher, M.; Achúcarro, A.; Ballardini, M.; Bartolo, N.; Baumann, D.; Clesse, S.; Errard, J.; Handley, W.; Hindmarsh, M.; Kiiveri, K.; Kunz, M.; Lasenby, A.; Liguori, M.; Paoletti, D.; Ringeval, C.; Väliviita, J.; van Tent, B.; Vennin, V.; Ade, P.; Allison, R.; Arroja, F.; Ashdown, M.; Banday, A. J.; Banerji, R.; Bartlett, J. G.; Basak, S.; de Bernardis, P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bonaldi, A.; Borril, J.; Bouchet, F. R.; Boulanger, F.; Brinckmann, T.; Burigana, C.; Buzzelli, A.; Cai, Z.-Y.; Calvo, M.; Carvalho, C. S.; Castellano, G.; Challinor, A.; Chluba, J.; Colantoni, I.; Coppolecchia, A.; Crook, M.; D'Alessandro, G.; D'Amico, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Desjacques, V.; De Zotti, G.; Diego, J. M.; Di Valentino, E.; Feeney, S.; Fergusson, J. R.; Fernandez-Cobos, R.; Ferraro, S.; Forastieri, F.; Galli, S.; García-Bellido, J.; de Gasperis, G.; Génova-Santos, R. T.; Gerbino, M.; González-Nuevo, J.; Grandis, S.; Greenslade, J.; Hagstotz, S.; Hanany, S.; Hazra, D. K.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Hervias-Caimapo, C.; Hills, M.; Hivon, E.; Hu, B.; Kisner, T.; Kitching, T.; Kovetz, E. D.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lamagna, L.; Lattanzi, M.; Lesgourgues, J.; Lewis, A.; Lindholm, V.; Lizarraga, J.; López-Caniego, M.; Luzzi, G.; Maffei, B.; Mandolesi, N.; Martínez-González, E.; Martins, C. J. A. P.; Masi, S.; McCarthy, D.; Matarrese, S.; Melchiorri, A.; Melin, J.-B.; Molinari, D.; Monfardini, A.; Natoli, P.; Negrello, M.; Notari, A.; Oppizzi, F.; Paiella, A.; Pajer, E.; Patanchon, G.; Patil, S. P.; Piat, M.; Pisano, G.; Polastri, L.; Polenta, G.; Pollo, A.; Poulin, V.; Quartin, M.; Ravenni, A.; Remazeilles, M.; Renzi, A.; Roest, D.; Roman, M.; Rubiño-Martin, J. A.; Salvati, L.; Starobinsky, A. A.; Tartari, A.; Tasinato, G.; Tomasi, M.; Torrado, J.; Trappe, N.; Trombetti, T.; Tucci, M.; Tucker, C.; Urrestilla, J.; van de Weygaert, R.; Vielva, P.; Vittorio, N.; Young, K.; Zannoni, M.

2018-04-01

We forecast the scientific capabilities to improve our understanding of cosmic inflation of CORE, a proposed CMB space satellite submitted in response to the ESA fifth call for a medium-size mission opportunity. The CORE satellite will map the CMB anisotropies in temperature and polarization in 19 frequency channels spanning the range 60–600 GHz. CORE will have an aggregate noise sensitivity of 1.7 μKṡ arcmin and an angular resolution of 5' at 200 GHz. We explore the impact of telescope size and noise sensitivity on the inflation science return by making forecasts for several instrumental configurations. This study assumes that the lower and higher frequency channels suffice to remove foreground contaminations and complements other related studies of component separation and systematic effects, which will be reported in other papers of the series "Exploring Cosmic Origins with CORE." We forecast the capability to determine key inflationary parameters, to lower the detection limit for the tensor-to-scalar ratio down to the 10‑3 level, to chart the landscape of single field slow-roll inflationary models, to constrain the epoch of reheating, thus connecting inflation to the standard radiation-matter dominated Big Bang era, to reconstruct the primordial power spectrum, to constrain the contribution from isocurvature perturbations to the 10‑3 level, to improve constraints on the cosmic string tension to a level below the presumptive GUT scale, and to improve the current measurements of primordial non-Gaussianities down to the fNLlocal inflation. Its capabilities will be further enhanced by combining with complementary future cosmological observations.

Quirky patterns in time-series of estimates of recruitment could be artefacts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dickey-Collas, M.; Hinzen, N.T.; Nash, R.D.M.

2015-01-01

of recruitment time-series in databases is therefore not consistent across or within species and stocks. Caution is therefore required as perhaps the characteristics of the time-series of stock dynamics may be determined by the model used to generate them, rather than underlying ecological phenomena......The accessibility of databases of global or regional stock assessment outputs is leading to an increase in meta-analysis of the dynamics of fish stocks. In most of these analyses, each of the time-series is generally assumed to be directly comparable. However, the approach to stock assessment...... employed, and the associated modelling assumptions, can have an important influence on the characteristics of each time-series. We explore this idea by investigating recruitment time-series with three different recruitment parameterizations: a stock–recruitment model, a random-walk time-series model...

Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2014-07-01

The weak-form efficiency of energy futures markets has long been studied and empirical evidence suggests controversial conclusions. In this work, nonparametric methods are adopted to estimate the Hurst indexes of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) and a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping is put forward to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis. The results show that the crude oil futures market is efficient when the whole period is considered. When the whole series is divided into three sub-series separated by the outbreaks of the Gulf War and the Iraq War, it is found that the Gulf War reduced the efficiency of the market. If the sample is split into two sub-series based on the signing date of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the market is found to be inefficient in the sub-periods during which the Gulf War broke out. The same analysis on short-time series in moving windows shows that the market is inefficient only when some turbulent events occur, such as the oil price crash in 1985, the Gulf war, and the oil price crash in 2008.

Identifying Sociological Factors for the Success of Space Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Lundquist, C. A.; Tarter, D.; Coleman, A.

Astrosociology factors relevant to success of future space exploration may best be identified through studies of sociological circumstances of past successful explorations, such as the Apollo-Lunar Missions. These studies benefit from access to primary records of the past programs. The Archives and Special Collections Division of the Salmon Library at the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) houses large collections of material from the early periods of the space age. The Huntsville campus of the University of Alabama System had its birth in the mid-1950s at the time when the von Braun rocket team was relocated from Texas to Huntsville. The University, the City of Huntsville and the US Government rocket organizations developed in parallel over subsequent years. As a result, the University has a significant space heritage and focus. This is true not only for the engineering and science disciplines, but also for the social sciences. The life of the University spans the period when Huntsville government and industrial organizations were responsible for producing the rocket vehicles to first take mankind to the Moon. That endeavor was surely as significant sociologically as technologically. In the 1980s, Donald E. Tarter, conducted a series of video interviews with some leading members of the original von Braun team. Although the interviews ranged over many engineering subjects, they also recorded personal features of people involved in the Apollo lunar exploration program and the interactions between these people. Such knowledge was of course an objective. These interviews are now in the collections of the UAH Library Archives, along with extensive documentation from the same period. Under sponsorship of the Archives and the NASA-Marshall Retiree Association, the interview series was restarted in 2006 to obtain comparable oral-history interviews with more than fifty US born members of the rocket team from the 1960s. Again these video interviews are rich with

Geometry of the Borel - de Siebenthal discrete series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ørsted, Bent; Wolf, Joseph A

Let G0 be a connected, simply connected real simple Lie group. Suppose that G0 has a compact Cartan subgroup T0, so it has discrete series representations. Relative to T0 there is a distinguished positive root system + for which there is a unique noncompact simple root , the “Borel – de Siebenthal...... system”. There is a lot of fascinating geometry associated to the corresponding “Borel – de Siebenthal discrete series” representations of G0. In this paper we explore some of those geometric aspects and we work out the K0–spectra of the Borel – de Siebenthal discrete series representations. This has...

Future Dietitian 2025: informing the development of a workforce strategy for dietetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Hickson, M; Child, J; Collinson, A

2018-02-01

Healthcare is changing and the professions that deliver it need to adapt and change too. The aim of this research was to inform the development of a workforce strategy for Dietetics for 2020-2030. This included an understanding of the drivers for change, the views of stakeholders and recommendations to prepare the profession for the future. The research included three phases: (i) establishing the context which included a literature and document review (environmental scan); (ii) discovering the profession and professional issues using crowd-sourcing technology; and (iii) articulating the vision for the future using appreciative inquiry. The environmental scan described the current status of the dietetic profession, the changing healthcare environment, the context in which dietitians work and what future opportunities exist for the profession. The online conversation facilitated by crowd-sourcing technology asked the question: 'How can dietitians strengthen their future role, influence and impact?' Dietitians and interested stakeholders (726 and 109, respectively) made 6130 contributions. Seven priorities were identified and fed into the appreciative inquiry event. The event bought together 54 dietitians and analysis of the discussions generated five themes: (i) professional identity; (ii) strong foundations-creating structure and direction for the profession; (iii) amplifying visibility and influence; (iv) embracing advances in science and technology; and (v) career advancement and emerging opportunities. A series of recommendations were made for the next steps in moving the workforce to a new future. The future for dietetics looks bright, embracing technology, as well as exploring different ways of working and new opportunities, as this dynamic profession continues to evolve. © 2017 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Time averaging, ageing and delay analysis of financial time series

Science.gov (United States)

Cherstvy, Andrey G.; Vinod, Deepak; Aghion, Erez; Chechkin, Aleksei V.; Metzler, Ralf

2017-06-01

We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black-Scholes-Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics.

Historic Cosmology Identity and Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Nebergall, K.

The role of the soul and spirit in the composition of human endeavour generally takes the form of motivational poster catch phrases or third-hand quotes. If the spirit equals the life of a creature, and one of the signs of life is locomotion, are humans not obliged by something even deeper than our humanity to explore the universe? This paper examines the roots and perspectives of our worldviews on identity, exploration, and the limitations and capacities of humanity. It will equip the reader to discuss the nature of exploration with audiences across a wide range of worldviews. Current cultures, regardless of religion or politics, are looped into a series of nihilistic patterns that must be broken by rediscovering our nature as living beings, and our obligations as human beings.

Space exploration

CERN Document Server

2009-01-01

Space Exploration, is one book in the Britannica Illustrated Science Library Series that is correlated to the science curriculum in grades 5-8. The Britannica Illustrated Science Library is a visually compelling set that covers earth science, life science, and physical science in 16 volumes.  Created for ages 10 and up, each volume provides an overview on a subject and thoroughly explains it through detailed and powerful graphics-more than 1,000 per volume-that turn complex subjects into information that students can grasp.  Each volume contains a glossary with full definitions for vocabulary help and an index.

Preliminary results of the search for possible Martian landing sites to be considered for future European exploration missions

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, P.

2007-08-01

The recently adopted European Space Policy aims at expanding and coordinating the role and activities of Europe's space actors with the purpose of increasing both scientific knowledge in selected space domains and the European presence in the Solar System, as well as optimising the relevant societal benefits. With our Moon and in particular Mars as primary targets of exploration goals for the Solar System, and following a number of very successful orbital missions performing detailed remote sensing and mapping of these planetary bodies, probe landings on the surface of the Moon and Mars represent the next stepping stone of the exploration of our close planetary environment. Along with developing the hardware capabilities required for Europe to reach such ambitious goals, it therefore becomes increasingly important to pinpoint with precision a number of landing sites well suited for the safety and scientific success of future robotic missions. Focusing on Mars, and although a number of candidate landing sites and associated catalogs with available scientific justification already exist, the results being obtained by orbiters such as Mars Express and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter are fundamentally transforming our knowledge of the planet's surface, which in turns highlights the need to review, update and revise the candidate sites for future landing missions on Mars. Detailed investigations of possible future Martian landing sites for European missions are ongoing, based on the wealth of scientific data and high-resolution mapping products available. In order to support the identification of suitable sites, various mapping products (geological, hyperspectral and compositional) can be consolidated, and various areas of Mars identified in the recent scientific literature as primary targets for landing can be taken into account for further, refined assessment of their suitability for landing. Seasonal and climatic effects potentially influencing landing shall also be

MOM-E: Moon-Orbiting Mothership Explorer

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Gloria A.

2010-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration proposed that a new class of robotic space missions and spacecrafts be introduced to "ensure that future missions are safe, sustainable and affordable". Indeed, the United States space program aims for a return to manned space missions beyond Earth orbit, and robotic explorers are intended to pave the way. This vision requires that all future missions become less costly, provide a sustainable business plan, and increase in safety. Over the course of several fast feasibility studies that considered the 3 drivers above, the small-scale, consumer-driven Moon-Orbiting Mothership Explorer (MOM-E) mission was born. MOM-E's goals are to enable space exploration by offering a scaled down platform which carries multiple small space explorers to the Moon. Each payload will be dropped at their desired destination, offering a competitive price to customers. MOM-E's current scope of operations is limited to the Moon and will be used as a proof of concept mission. However, MOM-E is specifically designed with the idea that the platform is scalable.

Theorizing Steampunk in Scott Westerfeld's YA Series Leviathan

Science.gov (United States)

Mielke, Tammy L.; LaHaie, Jeanne M.

2015-01-01

In this article, we offer an explanation of steampunk and theorize the genre and its functions within Scott Westerfeld's YA series Leviathan. In order to do so, we examine the "cogs" of the genre machine and its use of nostalgic longing for a revised past/future to rebel against present day cultural norms. Critics note that steampunk…

Advances in Airborne and Ground Geophysical Methods for Uranium Exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

One of the IAEA's statutory objectives is to 'seek to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world'. One way this objective is achieved is through the publication of a range of technical series. Two of these are the IAEA Nuclear Energy Series and the IAEA Safety Standards Series. According to Article III.A.6 of the IAEA Statute, the safety standards establish 'standards of safety for protection of health and minimization of danger to life and property.' The safety standards include the Safety Fundamentals, Safety Requirements and Safety Guides. These standards are written primarily in a regulatory style, and are binding on the IAEA for its own programmes. The principal users are the regulatory bodies in Member States and other national authorities. The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series comprises reports designed to encourage and assist R and D on, and application of, nuclear energy for peaceful uses. This includes practical examples to be used by owners and operators of utilities in Member States, implementing organizations, academia, and government officials, among others. This information is presented in guides, reports on technology status and advances, and best practices for peaceful uses of nuclear energy based on inputs from international experts. The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series complements the IAEA Safety Standards Series. According to current estimates, after 2050 available resources and cumulative uranium demand are expected to be balanced. Recent annual uranium production constitutes 65-75% of annual nuclear energy uranium requirements worldwide. With typical timeframes of between 15 and 40 years from the commencement of uranium exploration activities until uranium production, together with increasingly favourable uranium prices, many countries have seen a rise in uranium exploration activities since 2005. This experience and assessment of global energy needs support continued uranium exploration

The natural gas futures markets - is it still inefficient?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herbert, J.H.

1994-01-01

The natural gas futures market is fundamental to the current natural gas market both as means of price discovery and for price hedging. Thus, the informational efficiency of the futures market is an important issue. This article re-examines the informational efficiency of the natural gas futures market. In this re-examination several cash price series are considered. It is found that the natural gas futures market is informationally efficient for only one of the cash markets. The characteristics of the current natural gas market that might explain the estimated results are also discussed. (author)

Exploring Electrochromics: A Series of Eye-Catching Experiments to Introduce Students to Multidisciplinary Research

Science.gov (United States)

Small, Leo J.; Wolf, Steven; Spoerke, Erik D.

2014-01-01

Introducing students to a multidisciplinary research laboratory presents challenges in terms of learning specific technical skills and concepts but also with respect to integrating different technical elements to form a coherent picture of the research. Here we present a multidisciplinary series of experiments we have developed in the Electronic,…

Visibility graph analysis on quarterly macroeconomic series of China based on complex network theory

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Na; Li, Dong; Wang, Qiwen

2012-12-01

The visibility graph approach and complex network theory provide a new insight into time series analysis. The inheritance of the visibility graph from the original time series was further explored in the paper. We found that degree distributions of visibility graphs extracted from Pseudo Brownian Motion series obtained by the Frequency Domain algorithm exhibit exponential behaviors, in which the exponential exponent is a binomial function of the Hurst index inherited in the time series. Our simulations presented that the quantitative relations between the Hurst indexes and the exponents of degree distribution function are different for different series and the visibility graph inherits some important features of the original time series. Further, we convert some quarterly macroeconomic series including the growth rates of value-added of three industry series and the growth rates of Gross Domestic Product series of China to graphs by the visibility algorithm and explore the topological properties of graphs associated from the four macroeconomic series, namely, the degree distribution and correlations, the clustering coefficient, the average path length, and community structure. Based on complex network analysis we find degree distributions of associated networks from the growth rates of value-added of three industry series are almost exponential and the degree distributions of associated networks from the growth rates of GDP series are scale free. We also discussed the assortativity and disassortativity of the four associated networks as they are related to the evolutionary process of the original macroeconomic series. All the constructed networks have “small-world” features. The community structures of associated networks suggest dynamic changes of the original macroeconomic series. We also detected the relationship among government policy changes, community structures of associated networks and macroeconomic dynamics. We find great influences of government

Queering Aging Futures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linn J. Sandberg

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the potential for cultural gerontology to extend its ideas of diversity in aging experiences by opening space to rethink conceptions of successful aging futures. We propose a ‘queering’ of aging futures that disrupts the ways that expectations of a good later life and happy aging are seen to adhere to some bodies and subjectivities over others. Drawing on feminist, queer, and crip theories, we build on existing critiques of ‘successful aging’ to interrogate the assumptions of heteronormativity, able-bodiedness and able-mindedness that shape the dividing lines between success and failure in aging, and which inform attempts to ‘repair’ damaged futures. Conclusions suggest that recognizing diversity in successful aging futures is important in shaping responses to the challenges of aging societies, and presents an opportunity for critical cultural gerontology to join with its theoretical allies in imagining more inclusive alternatives.

Risk behavior in petroleum exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rose, P.R.

1992-01-01

In this paper, the author uses the term risk aversion, which weighs the magnitude of investment against four factors: size of available budget, potential gain, potential loss, and probabilities of each outcome. Modern petroleum exploration consists of a series of investment decisions on whether to acquire additional technical data (geological, geophysical, engineering, drilling, or economic) and/or additional mineral interests. Each decision should allow a progressively clearer perception of project risk versus reward and should support timely management action concerning the inferred accumulation. Companies searching for oil and natural gas make hundreds of such exploration decisions each year. So the problem in serial exploration decision making is twofold: to be consistent in the way we deal with risk and uncertainty and to perceive risk and uncertainty accurately and reduce them where possible. Risk aversion is not just a hypothetical nuisance. It causes explorationists to make inconsistent investment decisions, and it costs exploration companies millions of dollars annually in lost opportunities, bad choices, and wasted investment dollars

Time-series analysis of climatologic measurements: a method to distinguish future climatic changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duband, D.

1992-01-01

Time-series analysis of climatic parameters as air temperature, rivers flow rate, lakes or seas level is an indispensable basis to detect a possible significant climatic change. These observations, when they are carefully analyzed and criticized, constitute the necessary reference for testing and validation numerical climatic models which try to simulate the physical and dynamical process of the ocean-atmosphere couple, taking continents into account. 32 refs., 13 figs

Historicizing video game series through fan art discourses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Švelch

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this article, we argue that fannish histories should not be dismissed as mere nostalgia over past experiences of one's own media fandom. Instead they should be understood as complex narratives which combine various historical layers (personal, productional, fictional and influence the future reception of and anticipation for sequels. They also shed light on the personal histories of fans, which are often juxtaposed with extratextual and fictional histories of a video game series. The subjective nature of these historical discourses is not to be seen as a constraint but as a feature of everyday history which points to the prominence of historicizing in fan cultures of video game series. These topics are examined in the selected multimodal material from the site DeviantArt consisting of fan art pieces, authorial captions, and respective comments inspired by two single-player video game series: Tomb Raider and Mass Effect.

Unit root behavior in energy futures prices

OpenAIRE

Serletis, Apostolos

1992-01-01

This paper re-examines the empirical evidence for random walk type behavior in energy futures prices. In doing so, tests for unit roots in the univariate time-series representation of the daily crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline series are performed using recent state-of-the-art methodology. The results show that the unit root hypothesis can be rejected if allowance is made for the possibility of a one-time break in the intercept and the slope of the trend function at an unknown po...

Fourier series

CERN Document Server

Tolstov, Georgi P

1962-01-01

Richard A. Silverman's series of translations of outstanding Russian textbooks and monographs is well-known to people in the fields of mathematics, physics, and engineering. The present book is another excellent text from this series, a valuable addition to the English-language literature on Fourier series.This edition is organized into nine well-defined chapters: Trigonometric Fourier Series, Orthogonal Systems, Convergence of Trigonometric Fourier Series, Trigonometric Series with Decreasing Coefficients, Operations on Fourier Series, Summation of Trigonometric Fourier Series, Double Fourie

Aliza Shvarts’s Art of Aborting: Queer Conceptions and Resistance to Reproductive Futurism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Grahovac

2013-07-01

Full Text Available In April 2008, the Yale Daily News published an article introducing Yale University fine arts student Aliza Shvarts's senior undergraduate art project. In the article, Shvarts announced that as part of her project she had been privately artificially inseminating herself every month during a nine-month period, and performing self-induced miscarriages by ingesting abortifacient drugs each month. The announcement ignited a national controversy, sparking university protests and 'pro-life' outcries across internet communities. Ultimately, the Yale School of Art banned the project from being exhibited. No feminist made an immediate defence of Shvarts's work. Through an in-depth exploration of Shvarts's art project, this essay aims to critically interrogate the politics of reproduction and the rhetoric of futurity in relation to a woman's social and symbolic positioning in a culture that places heterosexual reproduction and the institution of family at the heart of future. I argue that Shvarts's project was an attempt to explore how art could be a means to empty the realm of femininity of its symbolic 'function' within a patriarchal order. By means of her radical refusal of reproduction, manifested in a series of repeated abortions, she staged a resistance to the patriarchal symbolic positioning of a woman – the positioning within which a woman's life is intelligible insofar as it follows the pre-determined reproductive narrative of 'natural' womanhood (birth, marriage, motherhood and death – so that a multitude of new narratives and possibilities could be birthed. I argue that Shvarts is the author of the possibility for imagining the future that is not mapped in advance for a woman – the future in which she is not an 'object' of reproduction but an 'author'. Drawing on Jack J. Halberstam's concept of 'shadow feminism' and Lee Edelman's 'reproductive futurism', I will also suggest that Shvarts's performance provides an invaluable reflection

Abyssal fauna of the UK-1 polymetallic nodule exploration area, Clarion-Clipperton Zone, central Pacific Ocean: Mollusca.

Science.gov (United States)

Wiklund, Helena; Taylor, John D; Dahlgren, Thomas G; Todt, Christiane; Ikebe, Chiho; Rabone, Muriel; Glover, Adrian G

2017-01-01

We present the first DNA taxonomy publication on abyssal Mollusca from the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ), central Pacific ocean, using material collected as part of the Abyssal Baseline (ABYSSLINE) environmental survey cruise 'AB01' to the UK Seabed Resources Ltd (UKSRL) polymetallic-nodule exploration area 'UK-1' in the eastern CCZ. This is the third paper in a series to provide regional taxonomic data for a region that is undergoing intense deep-sea mineral exploration for high-grade polymetallic nodules. Taxonomic data are presented for 21 species from 42 records identified by a combination of morphological and genetic data, including molecular phylogenetic analyses. These included 3 heterodont bivalves, 5 protobranch bivalves, 4 pteriomorph bivalves, 1 caudofoveate, 1 monoplacophoran, 1 polyplacophoran, 4 scaphopods and 2 solenogastres. Gastropoda were recovered but will be the subject of a future study. Seven taxa matched published morphological descriptions for species with deep Pacific type localities, and our sequences provide the first genetic data for these taxa. One taxon morphologically matched a known cosmopolitan species but with a type locality in a different ocean basin and was assigned the open nomenclature ' cf ' as a precautionary approach in taxon assignments to avoid over-estimating species ranges. One taxon is here described as a new species, Ledella knudseni sp. n. For the remaining 12 taxa, we have determined them to be potentially new species, for which we make the raw data, imagery and vouchers available for future taxonomic study. The Clarion-Clipperton Zone is a region undergoing intense exploration for potential deep-sea mineral extraction. We present these data to facilitate future taxonomic and environmental impact study by making both data and voucher materials available through curated and accessible biological collections.

Abyssal fauna of the UK-1 polymetallic nodule exploration area, Clarion-Clipperton Zone, central Pacific Ocean: Mollusca

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helena Wiklund

2017-10-01

Full Text Available We present the first DNA taxonomy publication on abyssal Mollusca from the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ, central Pacific ocean, using material collected as part of the Abyssal Baseline (ABYSSLINE environmental survey cruise ‘AB01’ to the UK Seabed Resources Ltd (UKSRL polymetallic-nodule exploration area ‘UK-1’ in the eastern CCZ. This is the third paper in a series to provide regional taxonomic data for a region that is undergoing intense deep-sea mineral exploration for high-grade polymetallic nodules. Taxonomic data are presented for 21 species from 42 records identified by a combination of morphological and genetic data, including molecular phylogenetic analyses. These included 3 heterodont bivalves, 5 protobranch bivalves, 4 pteriomorph bivalves, 1 caudofoveate, 1 monoplacophoran, 1 polyplacophoran, 4 scaphopods and 2 solenogastres. Gastropoda were recovered but will be the subject of a future study. Seven taxa matched published morphological descriptions for species with deep Pacific type localities, and our sequences provide the first genetic data for these taxa. One taxon morphologically matched a known cosmopolitan species but with a type locality in a different ocean basin and was assigned the open nomenclature ‘cf’ as a precautionary approach in taxon assignments to avoid over-estimating species ranges. One taxon is here described as a new species, Ledella knudseni sp. n. For the remaining 12 taxa, we have determined them to be potentially new species, for which we make the raw data, imagery and vouchers available for future taxonomic study. The Clarion-Clipperton Zone is a region undergoing intense exploration for potential deep-sea mineral extraction. We present these data to facilitate future taxonomic and environmental impact study by making both data and voucher materials available through curated and accessible biological collections.

The Colorful Future of Spin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ralston, John P.

2009-01-01

Activity and discoveries in spin physics of strong interactions has grown dramatically in recent years. What will we find in the future? I believe the future will be about the direct experimental exploration of confinement. While it is impossible to predict the 'future spin' of the whole community, my personal vision indicates we will teach ourselves how to use new coordinates for the gauge sector. New coordinates will be more appropriate for the new questions being asked. Contrary to long-held beliefs, there does exist alternatives to QCD. Not only will the future be about discovering the micro-structure of hadrons, but also new fundamental questions of principle will be confronted.

Hopes for the Future: Parents' and Children's Narratives of Children's Future Employment Orientations

OpenAIRE

Jeni Harden; Kathryn Backett-Milburn; Alice MacLean; Lynn Jamieson

2012-01-01

'What do you want to be when you grow up?' is a question often asked of children yet little is known about how children and their parents think about their future in terms of employment. This paper, based on qualitative longitudinal research with 14 families, explores children's and parents' narratives about children's employment futures, illuminating the values, social relations and structures through which such narratives are formed. The paper reflects on the extent to which children's pres...

"May the journey continue": Earth 2 fan fiction, or Filling in gaps to revive a canceled series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesca Musiani

2010-09-01

Full Text Available This essay explores writing practices in a fan community having to give life to a story deprived of an "official" version: the television series Earth 2. I argue that fan fiction writing for this prematurely canceled series exhibits peculiar features in comparison to fan writing for established series: for example, temporality, choice of protagonists, character pairings, and challenges to the original conception(s of the series. Writing fan fiction for a canceled series is not about creating alternatives to an existing story, but about filling in gaps; it brings to light the ways in which fan fiction deals with closure. I take as a case study Earth 2, a series aired by NBC in the United States in 1994–95, whose first and only season ended in a cliffhanger episode hinting that a mysterious ailment had struck the main and most popular character. Shortly afterward, a significant number of Earth 2 Web sites, online conventions, and especially fan stories started developing; they explored what could have happened next and bore nostalgic but combative mottoes and titles such as "May the Journey Continue." I explore the specific features of Earth 2 fan fiction production and sharing by analyzing the main Earth 2 fan fiction archives on the Web and the responses to my email interviews of fan writers. Exemplars of the Earth 2 case are compared to those of other science fiction TV series, both prematurely canceled (Firefly, Space: Above and Beyond and long-lived (Babylon 5, Star Trek: Deep Space 9.

Well-faring towards Uncertain Futures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frederiksen, Martin Demant; Pedersen, Susanne Højlund; Meinert, Lotte

2011-01-01

The article explores how societal contexts create different possibilities for faring well towards the future for young marginalized people. Based on a comparative project including ethnographies from Brazil, Uganda, Georgia and Denmark the authors discuss well-faring as a time-oriented process...... based on individual as well as societal conditions. The article argues that in order to understand well-faring it is important to analyse how visions and strategies for the future are shaped in relation to local circumstances. Whether it is possible to envision the future as hopeless or hopeful...

"A Nightmare Land, a Place of Death": An Exploration of the Moon as a Motif in Herge's "Destination Moon" (1953) and "Explorers on the Moon" (1954)

Science.gov (United States)

Beauvais, Clementine

2010-01-01

This article analyses the symbolic meaning of the Moon in two "bande dessinee" books from the Tintin series, Herge's "Destination Moon" ("Objectif Lune," 1953) and its sequel "Explorers on the Moon" ("On a Marche sur la Lune," 1954). It argues that these two volumes stand out in the series for their graphic, narrative and philosophical emphasis on…

Evaluating future detriment from radioactive discharges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleishman, A.B.; Clark, M.J.

1982-01-01

A quantitative framework for expressing judgements on the relative valuation of both future protection costs and radiation detriment from radioactive discharges is discussed. The framework can be applied to a series of notional effluent control options, illustrating the sensitivity of optimum protection levels to variations in discount rates. Using data on the radiological significance and management of radioactive discharges arising from the nuclear fuel cycle, it was shown that this quantitative optimization method of evaluating future detriment has important implications for the management of radioactive effluents, particularly those containing long-lived nuclides. (U.K.)

A scenario framework to explore the future migration and adaptation in deltas: A multi-scale and participatory approach

Science.gov (United States)

Kebede, Abiy S.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Inaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hill, Chris T.; Hutton, Craig W.; Kay, Susan; Lawn, Jon; Lazar, Attila N.; Whitehead, Paul W.

2017-04-01

Coastal deltas are home for over 500 million people globally, and they have been identified as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments during the 21st century. They are susceptible to multiple climatic (e.g., sea-level rise, storm surges, change in temperature and precipitation) and socio-economic (e.g., human-induced subsidence, population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth) drivers of change. These drivers also operate at multiple scales, ranging from local to global and short- to long-term. This highlights the complex challenges deltas face in terms of both their long-term sustainability as well as the well-being of their residents and the health of ecosystems that support the livelihood of large (often very poor) population under uncertain changing conditions. A holistic understanding of these challenges and the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes is central for devising robust adaptation policies. Scenario analysis has long been identified as a strategic management tool to explore future climate change and its impacts for supporting robust decision-making under uncertainty. This work presents the overall scenario framework, methodology, and processes adopted for the development of scenarios in the DECCMA* project. DECCMA is analysing the future of three deltas in South Asia and West Africa: (i) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Volta delta (Ghana). This includes comparisons between these three deltas. Hence, the scenario framework comprises a multi-scale hybrid approach, with six levels of scenario considerations: (i) global (climate change, e.g., sea-level rise, temperature change; and socio-economic assumptions, e.g., population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth); (ii) regional catchments (e.g., river flow modelling), (iii) regional seas (e.g., fisheries modelling), (iv) regional politics (e.g., transboundary disputes), (v) national (e.g., socio

Novel inhibitors of IMPDH: a highly potent and selective quinolone-based series.

Science.gov (United States)

Watterson, Scott H; Carlsen, Marianne; Dhar, T G Murali; Shen, Zhongqi; Pitts, William J; Guo, Junqing; Gu, Henry H; Norris, Derek; Chorba, John; Chen, Ping; Cheney, Daniel; Witmer, Mark; Fleener, Catherine A; Rouleau, Katherine; Townsend, Robert; Hollenbaugh, Diane L; Iwanowicz, Edwin J

2003-02-10

A series of novel quinolone-based small molecule inhibitors of inosine monophosphate dehydrogenase (IMPDH) was explored. The synthesis and the structure-activity relationships (SARs) derived from in vitro studies are described.

CECE: Expanding the Envelope of Deep Throttling Technology in Liquid Oxygen/Liquid Hydrogen Rocket Engines for NASA Exploration Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliano, Victor J.; Leonard, Timothy G.; Lyda, Randy T.; Kim, Tony S.

2010-01-01

As one of the first technology development programs awarded by NASA under the Vision for Space Exploration, the Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) Deep Throttling, Common Extensible Cryogenic Engine (CECE) program was selected by NASA in November 2004 to begin technology development and demonstration toward a deep throttling, cryogenic engine supporting ongoing trade studies for NASA s Lunar Lander descent stage. The CECE program leverages the maturity and previous investment of a flight-proven hydrogen/oxygen expander cycle engine, the PWR RL10, to develop and demonstrate an unprecedented combination of reliability, safety, durability, throttlability, and restart capabilities in high-energy, cryogenic, in-space propulsion. The testbed selected for the deep throttling demonstration phases of this program was a minimally modified RL10 engine, allowing for maximum current production engine commonality and extensibility with minimum program cost. Four series of demonstrator engine tests have been successfully completed between April 2006 and April 2010, accumulating 7,436 seconds of hot fire time over 47 separate tests. While the first two test series explored low power combustion (chug) and system instabilities, the third test series investigated and was ultimately successful in demonstrating several mitigating technologies for these instabilities and achieved a stable throttling ratio of 13:1. The fourth test series significantly expanded the engine s operability envelope by successfully demonstrating a closed-loop control system and extensive transient modeling to enable lower power engine starting, faster throttle ramp rates, and mission-specific ignition testing. The final hot fire test demonstrated a chug-free, minimum power level of 5.9%, corresponding to an overall 17.6:1 throttling ratio achieved. In total, these tests have provided an early technology demonstration of an enabling cryogenic propulsion concept with invaluable system-level technology data

IEC fusion: The future power and propulsion system for space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hammond, Walter E.; Coventry, Matt; Miley, George H.; Nadler, Jon; Hanson, John; Hrbud, Ivana

2000-01-01

Rapid access to any point in the solar system requires advanced propulsion concepts that will provide extremely high specific impulse, low specific power, and a high thrust-to-power ratio. Inertial Electrostatic Confinement (IEC) fusion is one of many exciting concepts emerging through propulsion and power research in laboratories across the nation which will determine the future direction of space exploration. This is part of a series of papers that discuss different applications of the Inertial Electrostatic Confinement (IEC) fusion concept for both in-space and terrestrial use. IEC will enable tremendous advances in faster travel times within the solar system. The technology is currently under investigation for proof of concept and transitioning into the first prototype units for commercial applications. In addition to use in propulsion for space applications, terrestrial applications include desalinization plants, high energy neutron sources for radioisotope generation, high flux sources for medical applications, proton sources for specialized medical applications, and tritium production

Time Series Outlier Detection Based on Sliding Window Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yufeng Yu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In order to detect outliers in hydrological time series data for improving data quality and decision-making quality related to design, operation, and management of water resources, this research develops a time series outlier detection method for hydrologic data that can be used to identify data that deviate from historical patterns. The method first built a forecasting model on the history data and then used it to predict future values. Anomalies are assumed to take place if the observed values fall outside a given prediction confidence interval (PCI, which can be calculated by the predicted value and confidence coefficient. The use of PCI as threshold is mainly on the fact that it considers the uncertainty in the data series parameters in the forecasting model to address the suitable threshold selection problem. The method performs fast, incremental evaluation of data as it becomes available, scales to large quantities of data, and requires no preclassification of anomalies. Experiments with different hydrologic real-world time series showed that the proposed methods are fast and correctly identify abnormal data and can be used for hydrologic time series analysis.

The Acoustic and Peceptual Effects of Series and Parallel Processing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melinda C. Anderson

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Temporal envelope (TE cues provide a great deal of speech information. This paper explores how spectral subtraction and dynamic-range compression gain modifications affect TE fluctuations for parallel and series configurations. In parallel processing, algorithms compute gains based on the same input signal, and the gains in dB are summed. In series processing, output from the first algorithm forms the input to the second algorithm. Acoustic measurements show that the parallel arrangement produces more gain fluctuations, introducing more changes to the TE than the series configurations. Intelligibility tests for normal-hearing (NH and hearing-impaired (HI listeners show (1 parallel processing gives significantly poorer speech understanding than an unprocessed (UNP signal and the series arrangement and (2 series processing and UNP yield similar results. Speech quality tests show that UNP is preferred to both parallel and series arrangements, although spectral subtraction is the most preferred. No significant differences exist in sound quality between the series and parallel arrangements, or between the NH group and the HI group. These results indicate that gain modifications affect intelligibility and sound quality differently. Listeners appear to have a higher tolerance for gain modifications with regard to intelligibility, while judgments for sound quality appear to be more affected by smaller amounts of gain modification.

Addressing the Future in Ancient and Modern Times.

Science.gov (United States)

Roshwald, Mordecai

1982-01-01

Explores the similarities between ancient prophecy and modern futures prediction. The article suggests that the perceived degree of certainty in predictions of the future affects the patterns of emotional and rational responses in those receiving them. (AM)

Flexible Pedagogies: New Pedagogical Ideas. Flexible Pedagogies: Preparing for the Future Series

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Alex; Tilbury, Daniella

2014-01-01

This publication is part of our five-strand research project "Flexible Pedagogies: preparing for the future". It identifies six "new pedagogical ideas" offering new pathways for learning. These include: (1) actively involving students in learning development and processes of "co-creation" thereby challenging existing…

Kriging Methodology and Its Development in Forecasting Econometric Time Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrej Gajdoš

2017-03-01

Full Text Available One of the approaches for forecasting future values of a time series or unknown spatial data is kriging. The main objective of the paper is to introduce a general scheme of kriging in forecasting econometric time series using a family of linear regression time series models (shortly named as FDSLRM which apply regression not only to a trend but also to a random component of the observed time series. Simultaneously performing a Monte Carlo simulation study with a real electricity consumption dataset in the R computational langure and environment, we investigate the well-known problem of “negative” estimates of variance components when kriging predictions fail. Our following theoretical analysis, including also the modern apparatus of advanced multivariate statistics, gives us the formulation and proof of a general theorem about the explicit form of moments (up to sixth order for a Gaussian time series observation. This result provides a basis for further theoretical and computational research in the kriging methodology development.

`Indoor` series vending machines; `Indoor` series jido hanbaiki

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gensui, T.; Kida, A. [Fuji Electric Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Okumura, H. [Fuji Denki Reiki Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

1996-07-10

This paper introduces three series of vending machines that were designed to match the interior of an office building. The three series are vending machines for cups, paper packs, cans, and tobacco. Among the three series, `Interior` series has a symmetric design that was coated in a grain pattern. The inside of the `Interior` series is coated by laser satin to ensure a sense of superior quality and a refined style. The push-button used for product selection is hot-stamped on the plastic surface to ensure the hair-line luster. `Interior Phase II` series has a bay window design with a sense of superior quality and lightness. The inside of the `Interior Phase II` series is coated by laser satin. `Interior 21` series is integrated with the wall except the sales operation panel. The upper and lower dress panels can be detached and attached. The door lock is a wire-type structure with high operativity. The operation block is coated by titanium color. The dimensions of three series are standardized. 6 figs., 1 tab.

Exploring Algorithms for Stellar Light Curves With TESS

Science.gov (United States)

Buzasi, Derek

2018-01-01

The Kepler and K2 missions have produced tens of thousands of stellar light curves, which have been used to measure rotation periods, characterize photometric activity levels, and explore phenomena such as differential rotation. The quasi-periodic nature of rotational light curves, combined with the potential presence of additional periodicities not due to rotation, complicates the analysis of these time series and makes characterization of uncertainties difficult. A variety of algorithms have been used for the extraction of rotational signals, including autocorrelation functions, discrete Fourier transforms, Lomb-Scargle periodograms, wavelet transforms, and the Hilbert-Huang transform. In addition, in the case of K2 a number of different pipelines have been used to produce initial detrended light curves from the raw image frames.In the near future, TESS photometry, particularly that deriving from the full-frame images, will dramatically further expand the number of such light curves, but details of the pipeline to be used to produce photometry from the FFIs remain under development. K2 data offers us an opportunity to explore the utility of different reduction and analysis tool combinations applied to these astrophysically important tasks. In this work, we apply a wide range of algorithms to light curves produced by a number of popular K2 pipeline products to better understand the advantages and limitations of each approach and provide guidance for the most reliable and most efficient analysis of TESS stellar data.

Self-supervised learning as an enabling technology for future space exploration robots: ISS experiments on monocular distance learning

Science.gov (United States)

van Hecke, Kevin; de Croon, Guido C. H. E.; Hennes, Daniel; Setterfield, Timothy P.; Saenz-Otero, Alvar; Izzo, Dario

2017-11-01

Although machine learning holds an enormous promise for autonomous space robots, it is currently not employed because of the inherent uncertain outcome of learning processes. In this article we investigate a learning mechanism, Self-Supervised Learning (SSL), which is very reliable and hence an important candidate for real-world deployment even on safety-critical systems such as space robots. To demonstrate this reliability, we introduce a novel SSL setup that allows a stereo vision equipped robot to cope with the failure of one of its cameras. The setup learns to estimate average depth using a monocular image, by using the stereo vision depths from the past as trusted ground truth. We present preliminary results from an experiment on the International Space Station (ISS) performed with the MIT/NASA SPHERES VERTIGO satellite. The presented experiments were performed on October 8th, 2015 on board the ISS. The main goals were (1) data gathering, and (2) navigation based on stereo vision. First the astronaut Kimiya Yui moved the satellite around the Japanese Experiment Module to gather stereo vision data for learning. Subsequently, the satellite freely explored the space in the module based on its (trusted) stereo vision system and a pre-programmed exploration behavior, while simultaneously performing the self-supervised learning of monocular depth estimation on board. The two main goals were successfully achieved, representing the first online learning robotic experiments in space. These results lay the groundwork for a follow-up experiment in which the satellite will use the learned single-camera depth estimation for autonomous exploration in the ISS, and are an advancement towards future space robots that continuously improve their navigation capabilities over time, even in harsh and completely unknown space environments.

Stochastic generation of hourly wind speed time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shamshad, A.; Wan Mohd Ali Wan Hussin; Bawadi, M.A.; Mohd Sanusi, S.A.

2006-01-01

In the present study hourly wind speed data of Kuala Terengganu in Peninsular Malaysia are simulated by using transition matrix approach of Markovian process. The wind speed time series is divided into various states based on certain criteria. The next wind speed states are selected based on the previous states. The cumulative probability transition matrix has been formed in which each row ends with 1. Using the uniform random numbers between 0 and 1, a series of future states is generated. These states have been converted to the corresponding wind speed values using another uniform random number generator. The accuracy of the model has been determined by comparing the statistical characteristics such as average, standard deviation, root mean square error, probability density function and autocorrelation function of the generated data to those of the original data. The generated wind speed time series data is capable to preserve the wind speed characteristics of the observed data

Design of vision concepts to explore the future : Nature, context and design techniques

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mejia Sarmiento, J.R.; Simonse, W.L.

2015-01-01

Industrial firms are facing a constant dilemma, to be ready for the future, have a vision, and at the same time act within the current situation, exploit current products efficiently. This research examines visions that embody future opportunities and ideas, “vision concepts” such as concept cars

Dental optical coherence domain reflectometry explorer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Everett, Matthew J. (Livermore, CA); Colston, Jr., Billy W. (Livermore, CA); Sathyam, Ujwal S. (Livermore, CA); Da Silva, Luiz B. (Pleasanton, CA)

2001-01-01

A hand-held, fiber optic based dental device with optical coherence domain reflectometry (OCDR) sensing capabilities provides a profile of optical scattering as a function of depth in the tissue at the point where the tip of the dental explorer touches the tissue. This system provides information on the internal structure of the dental tissue, which is then used to detect caries and periodontal disease. A series of profiles of optical scattering or tissue microstructure are generated by moving the explorer across the tooth or other tissue. The profiles are combined to form a cross-sectional, or optical coherence tomography (OCT), image.

Time series analysis of monthly pulpwood use in the Northeast

Science.gov (United States)

James T. Bones

1980-01-01

Time series analysis was used to develop a model that depicts pulpwood use in the Northeast. The model is useful in forecasting future pulpwood requirements (short term) or monitoring pulpwood-use activity in relation to past use patterns. The model predicted a downturn in use during 1980.

Social Foundations of Human Space Exploration

CERN Document Server

Dator, James A

2012-01-01

Social Foundations of Human Space Exploration presents a uniquely human perspective on the quest to explore space and to understand the universe through the lens of the arts, humanities, and social sciences. It considers early stories about the universe in various cultures; recent space fiction; the origins and cultural rationale for the space age; experiences of humans in space and their emerging interactions with robots and artificial intelligence; how humans should treat environments and alien life; and the alternative futures of space exploration and settlement.

Future pharmacological therapy in hypertension.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Merrill H; Lavie, Carl J; Ventura, Hector O

2018-04-26

Hypertension (HTN) is a widespread and growing disease, with medication intolerance and side-effect present among many. To address these obstacles novel pharmacotherapy is an active area of drug development. This review seeks to explore future drug therapy for HTN in the preclinical and clinical arenas. The future of pharmacological therapy in HTN consists of revisiting old pathways to find new targets and exploring wholly new approaches to provide additional avenues of treatment. In this review, we discuss the current status of the most recent drug therapy in HTN. New developments in well trod areas include novel mineralocorticoid antagonists, aldosterone synthase inhibitors, aminopeptidase-A inhibitors, natriuretic peptide receptor agonists, or the counter-regulatory angiotensin converting enzyme 2/angiotensin (Ang) (1-7)/Mas receptor axis. Neprilysin inhibitors popularized for heart failure may also still hold HTN potential. Finally, we examine unique systems in development never before used in HTN such as Na/H exchange inhibitors, vasoactive intestinal peptide agonists, and dopamine beta hydroxylase inhibitors. A concise review of future directions of HTN pharmacotherapy.

Time series regression model for infectious disease and weather.

Science.gov (United States)

Imai, Chisato; Armstrong, Ben; Chalabi, Zaid; Mangtani, Punam; Hashizume, Masahiro

2015-10-01

Time series regression has been developed and long used to evaluate the short-term associations of air pollution and weather with mortality or morbidity of non-infectious diseases. The application of the regression approaches from this tradition to infectious diseases, however, is less well explored and raises some new issues. We discuss and present potential solutions for five issues often arising in such analyses: changes in immune population, strong autocorrelations, a wide range of plausible lag structures and association patterns, seasonality adjustments, and large overdispersion. The potential approaches are illustrated with datasets of cholera cases and rainfall from Bangladesh and influenza and temperature in Tokyo. Though this article focuses on the application of the traditional time series regression to infectious diseases and weather factors, we also briefly introduce alternative approaches, including mathematical modeling, wavelet analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Modifications proposed to standard time series regression practice include using sums of past cases as proxies for the immune population, and using the logarithm of lagged disease counts to control autocorrelation due to true contagion, both of which are motivated from "susceptible-infectious-recovered" (SIR) models. The complexity of lag structures and association patterns can often be informed by biological mechanisms and explored by using distributed lag non-linear models. For overdispersed models, alternative distribution models such as quasi-Poisson and negative binomial should be considered. Time series regression can be used to investigate dependence of infectious diseases on weather, but may need modifying to allow for features specific to this context. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The detection of local irreversibility in time series based on segmentation

Science.gov (United States)

Teng, Yue; Shang, Pengjian

2018-06-01

We propose a strategy for the detection of local irreversibility in stationary time series based on multiple scale. The detection is beneficial to evaluate the displacement of irreversibility toward local skewness. By means of this method, we can availably discuss the local irreversible fluctuations of time series as the scale changes. The method was applied to simulated nonlinear signals generated by the ARFIMA process and logistic map to show how the irreversibility functions react to the increasing of the multiple scale. The method was applied also to series of financial markets i.e., American, Chinese and European markets. The local irreversibility for different markets demonstrate distinct characteristics. Simulations and real data support the need of exploring local irreversibility.

Back to the future of gaming

CERN Document Server

D Duke, Richard

2014-01-01

The book is based on Richard Duke's classic ""Gaming: The Future's Language"" and explores the past, present and especially the future of gaming in relation to the main ideas of Duke's book, first published in 1974. This new book serves both as a retrospective and as a thoughtful speculation about the future of gaming. The editors attempted to preserve some history, wisdom and the 'state of the art' of field while creating a source of inspiration for the present and future development of the gaming discipline.   Der Sammelband ist Retrospektive und reflektierte Mutmaßung über die Zukunft der P

The fractal feature and price trend in the gold future market at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE)

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Binghui; Duan, Tingting

2017-05-01

The price of gold future is affected by many factors, which include the fluctuation of gold price and the change of trading environment. Fractal analysis can help investors gain better understandings of the price fluctuation and make reasonable investment decisions in the gold future market. After analyzing gold future price from January 2th, 2014 to April 12th, 2016 at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) in China, the conclusion is drawn that the gold future market has sustainability in each trading day, with all Hurst indexes greater than 0.5. The changing features of Hurst index indicate the sustainability of gold future market is strengthened first and weakened then. As a complicatedly nonlinear system, the gold future market can be well reflected by Elman neural network, which is capable of memorizing previous prices and particularly suited for forecasting time series in comparison with other types of neural networks. After analyzing the price trend in the gold future market, the results show that the relative error between the actual value of gold future and the predictive value of Elman neural network is smaller. This model that has a better performance in data fitting and predication, can help investors analyze and foresee the price tendency in the gold future market.

Flexible Pedagogies: Technology-Enhanced Learning. Flexible Pedagogies: Preparing for the Future Series

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, Neil

2014-01-01

This publication is part of our five-strand research project "Flexible Pedagogies: preparing for the future". It focuses on a better understanding of technology-enhanced learning (TEL) and: (1) identifies key international drivers in the move towards technology-enhanced learning; (2) highlights some of the challenges and opportunities…

Mauna Kea, Hawaii as an Analogue Site for Future Planetary Resource Exploration: Results from the 2010 ILSO-ISRU Field-Testing Campaign

Science.gov (United States)

ten Kate, I. L.; Armstrong, R.; Bernhardt, B.; Blummers, M.; Boucher, D.; Caillibot, E.; Captain, J.; Deleuterio, G.; Farmer, J. D.; Glavin, D. P.;

Speculation on commodities futures markets and destabilization of global food prices: exploring the connections.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Jayati; Heintz, James; Pollin, Robert

2012-01-01

In December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index surpassed its previous peak of June 2008, and prices remained at this level through September 2011. This pattern is creating justified fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. This paper reviews arguments and evidence to inform debates on how to regulate commodity futures markets in the face of such price volatility and sustained high prices. We focus on the relationship between market liquidity and price patterns in asset markets in general and in commodities futures markets in particular, as well as the relationship between spot and futures market prices for food. We find strong evidence supporting the need to limit huge increases in trading volume on futures markets through regulations. We find that arguments opposing regulation are not supported. We find no support for the claim that liquidity in futures markets stabilizes prices at "fundamental" values or that spot market prices are free of any significant influence from futures markets. Given these results, the most appropriate position for regulators is precautionary: they should enact and enforce policies capable of effectively dampening excessive speculative trading on the commodities markets for food.

Medial Temporal Lobe Contributions to Episodic Future Thinking: Scene Construction or Future Projection?

Science.gov (United States)

Palombo, D J; Hayes, S M; Peterson, K M; Keane, M M; Verfaellie, M

2018-02-01

Previous research has shown that the medial temporal lobes (MTL) are more strongly engaged when individuals think about the future than about the present, leading to the suggestion that future projection drives MTL engagement. However, future thinking tasks often involve scene processing, leaving open the alternative possibility that scene-construction demands, rather than future projection, are responsible for the MTL differences observed in prior work. This study explores this alternative account. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we directly contrasted MTL activity in 1) high scene-construction and low scene-construction imagination conditions matched in future thinking demands and 2) future-oriented and present-oriented imagination conditions matched in scene-construction demands. Consistent with the alternative account, the MTL was more active for the high versus low scene-construction condition. By contrast, MTL differences were not observed when comparing the future versus present conditions. Moreover, the magnitude of MTL activation was associated with the extent to which participants imagined a scene but was not associated with the extent to which participants thought about the future. These findings help disambiguate which component processes of imagination specifically involve the MTL. Published by Oxford University Press 2016.

Future time orientation and temperament: exploration of their relationship to primary and secondary psychopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Bjørnebekk, Gunnar; Gjesme, Torgrim

2009-08-01

The present study combines Lykken's theory about the role of reward sensitivity and punishment insensitivity in the development of antisocial behavior with Gjesme's theory of future time orientation. 158 adolescents comprised a target group of 79 adolescents who had defined behavioral problems and a matched referential group of 79 adolescents who did not have notable behavioral problems. The results suggest that attributes related to primary psychopathy are associated with a relatively weak or hyporeactive behavioral inhibition system, behavioral approach reactivity, and low future time orientation. Moreover, attributes related to secondary psychopathy are related to an overly sensitive (hyper-reactive) behavioral approach system and low future time orientation. Robust positive associations for behavioral approach reactivity and low future time orientation with primary and secondary psychopathy suggest that high behavioral approach/low future time orientation may represent a core feature common to the two factors of psychopathy.

Report from ILEWG to the COSPAR Panel on Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Foing, Bernard H.

The International Lunar Exploration Working Group (ILEWG) was established in April 1995 at a meeting in Hamburg, Germany. As established in its charter, this working group reports to COSPAR and is charged with developing an international strategy for the exploration of the Moon. It discusses coordination between missions, and a road map for future international lunar exploration and utilisation. It fosters information exchange or potential and real future lunar robotic and human missions, as well as for new scientific and exploration information about the Moon. ILEWG was used to feed forward results from lunar missions such as SMART1 to the next ones, and we look now to integrate lessons from all recent orbiters and landers, for the upcoming landers, sample return missions, and human activities. We give a report on ILEWG community activities, refer to COSPAR and ILEWG ICEUM and lunar conferences and declarations [1-18], and discuss the follow-up of GLUC/ICEUM11 declaration relevant to COSPAR PEX*. References: [1] 1st International Lunar Workshop, Balsiger H. et al., Editors, European Space Agency, 1994. ESA-SP-1170. [2] 2nd International Lunar Workshop, Kyoto, H. Mizutani, editor, Japan Space Forum Publisher, 1997. [3] 3rd International Lunar Workshop, Moscow 1998, E. Galimov, editor. [4] ICEUM4, ESTEC, 2000, ESA SP-462, B.H. Foing & M. Perry, editors. [5] ICEUM5, Hawaii Nov 2003, Durst S.M. et al, Editors, Vol 108, 1-576 pp, Science and Technology Series, American Astronautical Society, 2004. [6] ICEUM6, Udaipur 2004, Bhandari N., Editor, Journal Earth Sys-tem Science, India, 114, No6, Dec 2005, pp. 573-841. [7] ICEUM7, Toronto Sept 2005, sci.esa.int/ilewg. [8] ICEUM8, Beijing July 2006, Journal of Chinese Society of Astronautics, Vol. 28 Sup., 2007, Ji W., Editor. [9] ICEUM9, Sorrento, Italy, Foing B., Espinasse S., Kosters G., Editors. http://sci.esa.int/iceum9, Dec. 2007), [11] Ehrenfreund, P., Foing, B.H., Cellino, A. Editors, The Moon and Near Earth Objects

Appropriate use of the increment entropy for electrophysiological time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiaofeng; Wang, Xue; Zhou, Xu; Jiang, Aimin

2018-04-01

The increment entropy (IncrEn) is a new measure for quantifying the complexity of a time series. There are three critical parameters in the IncrEn calculation: N (length of the time series), m (dimensionality), and q (quantifying precision). However, the question of how to choose the most appropriate combination of IncrEn parameters for short datasets has not been extensively explored. The purpose of this research was to provide guidance on choosing suitable IncrEn parameters for short datasets by exploring the effects of varying the parameter values. We used simulated data, epileptic EEG data and cardiac interbeat (RR) data to investigate the effects of the parameters on the calculated IncrEn values. The results reveal that IncrEn is sensitive to changes in m, q and N for short datasets (N≤500). However, IncrEn reaches stability at a data length of N=1000 with m=2 and q=2, and for short datasets (N=100), it shows better relative consistency with 2≤m≤6 and 2≤q≤8 We suggest that the value of N should be no less than 100. To enable a clear distinction between different classes based on IncrEn, we recommend that m and q should take values between 2 and 4. With appropriate parameters, IncrEn enables the effective detection of complexity variations in physiological time series, suggesting that IncrEn should be useful for the analysis of physiological time series in clinical applications. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FUTURE LEPTON COLLIDERS AND LASER ACCELERATION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

PARSA, Z.

2000-01-01

Future high energy colliders along with their physics potential, and relationship to new laser technology are discussed. Experimental approaches and requirements for New Physics exploration are also described

Site remediation and the future of radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsen, R.L.

1999-01-01

An ongoing project on The Future of Radiation Protection is exploring the most important radiation-related challenges that may emerge between now and 2025. Project participants have already identified the restoration of sites contaminated by radioactive residues as one of the central challenges of the generation ahead. Scenarios developed in the project explore a wide range of plausible radiation protection futures, from highly desirable futures to futures dominated by problems and crises. The most negative scenario involves many developments that produce radioactive residues, from accidents that release radionuclides and scandals over the improper handling and disposal of radioactive wastes to accelerating proliferation of nuclear weapons and incidents of radiological terrorism. A majority of expert participants in focus groups conducted as part of the project view this negative scenario as the most probable future. Other scenarios explore a 'greater use' future (e.g., a second generation of nuclear power) and a future where advancing technology leads away from the use of radioactive materials. These two scenarios elicit strong enthusiasm from different sets of participants, but neither of them is viewed as likely. A final 'Whole System Protection' scenario is viewed favorably by the widest range of participants and is viewed as reasonably likely. This scenario is being developed further in the current stage of the project. It is being developed to highlight common ground between participants in terms of agreement on 'principles for guiding action.' Principles such as total accounting, pollution prevention, risk harmonization, public right to know, stewardship, and sustainability may form a framework for guiding action that can transcend traditional debates and revitalize the field of radiation protection. (author)

Agricultural futures as becoming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Dan Kristian; Kjeldsen, Chris

This paper explores how the unfolding of an alternative future for agriculture consists of struggles to assemble a heterogeneous network of natural relations and social relations and technological relations. The site of this exploration is a profiled project, where a zero emission and landless...... agricultural facility is envisioned to consist of a pig production facility with a greenhouse for growing tomatoes on top. The novelty of this projects and its claim for sustainability lies in combining these two productions and utilizing synergies between them as well as employing an innovative technological...

China's roadmap for planetary exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Yong; Yao, Zhonghua; Wan, Weixing

2018-05-01

China has approved or planned a string of several space exploration missions to be launched over the next decade. A new generation of planetary scientists in China is playing an important role in determining the scientific goals of future missions.

Composites for Exploration Upper Stage

Science.gov (United States)

Fikes, J. C.; Jackson, J. R.; Richardson, S. W.; Thomas, A. D.; Mann, T. O.; Miller, S. G.

2016-01-01

The Composites for Exploration Upper Stage (CEUS) was a 3-year, level III project within the Technology Demonstration Missions program of the NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate. Studies have shown that composites provide important programmatic enhancements, including reduced weight to increase capability and accelerated expansion of exploration and science mission objectives. The CEUS project was focused on technologies that best advanced innovation, infusion, and broad applications for the inclusion of composites on future large human-rated launch vehicles and spacecraft. The benefits included near- and far-term opportunities for infusion (NASA, industry/commercial, Department of Defense), demonstrated critical technologies and technically implementable evolvable innovations, and sustained Agency experience. The initial scope of the project was to advance technologies for large composite structures applicable to the Space Launch System (SLS) Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) by focusing on the affordability and technical performance of the EUS forward and aft skirts. The project was tasked to develop and demonstrate critical composite technologies with a focus on full-scale materials, design, manufacturing, and test using NASA in-house capabilities. This would have demonstrated a major advancement in confidence and matured the large-scale composite technology to a Technology Readiness Level 6. This project would, therefore, have bridged the gap for providing composite application to SLS upgrades, enabling future exploration missions.

Test performance of the QSE series of 5 cm aperture quadrupole model magnets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Archer, B.; Bein, D.; Cunningham, G.; DiMarco, J.; Gathright, T.; Jayakumar, J.; LaBarge, A.; Li, W.; Lambert, D.; Scott, M.

1994-01-01

A 5 cm aperture quadrupole design, the QSE series of magnets were the first to be tested in the Short Magnet and Cable Test Laboratory (SMCTL) at the SSCL. Test performance of the first two magnets of the series are presented, including quench performance, quench localization, strain gage readings, and magnetic measurements. Both magnets behaved reasonably well with no quenches below the collider operating current, four training quenches to plateau, and good training memory between thermal cycles. Future magnets in the QSE series will be used to reduce the initial training and to tune out unwanted magnetic harmonics

Test performance of the QSE series of 5 cm aperture quadrupole model magnets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Archer, B.; Bein, D.; Cunningham, G.; DiMarco, J.; Gathright, T.; Jayakumar, J.; Labarge, A.; Li, W.; Lambert, D.; Scott, M.; Snitchler, G.; Zeigler, R.

1993-04-01

A 5 cm aperture quadrupole design, the QSE series of magnets were the first to be tested in the Short Magnet and Cable Test Laboratory (SMCTL) at the SSCL. Test performance of the first two magnets of the series are presented, including quench performance, quench localization, strain gage readings, and magnetic measurements.Both magnets behaved reasonably well with no quenches below the collider operating current, four training quenches to plateau, and good training memory between thermal cycles. Future magnets in the QSE series will be used to reduce the initial training and to tune out unwanted magnetic harmonics

Abyssal fauna of the UK-1 polymetallic nodule exploration area, Clarion-Clipperton Zone, central Pacific Ocean: Cnidaria.

Science.gov (United States)

Dahlgren, Thomas G; Wiklund, Helena; Rabone, Muriel; Amon, Diva J; Ikebe, Chiho; Watling, Les; Smith, Craig R; Glover, Adrian G

2016-01-01

We present data from a DNA taxonomy register of the abyssal Cnidaria collected as part of the Abyssal Baseline (ABYSSLINE) environmental survey cruise 'AB01' to the UK Seabed Resources Ltd (UKSRL) polymetallic-nodule exploration area 'UK-1' in the eastern Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ), central Pacific Ocean abyssal plain. This is the second paper in a series to provide regional taxonomic data for a region that is undergoing intense deep-sea mineral exploration for high-grade polymetallic nodules. Data were collected from the UK-1 exploration area following the methods described in Glover et al. (2015b). Morphological and genetic data are presented for 10 species and 18 records identified by a combination of morphological and genetic data, including molecular phylogenetic analyses. These included 2 primnoid octocorals, 2 isidid octocorals, 1 anemone, 4 hydroids (including 2 pelagic siphonophores accidentally caught) and a scyphozoan jellyfish (in the benthic stage of the life cycle). Two taxa matched previously published genetic sequences (pelagic siphonophores), two taxa matched published morphological descriptions (abyssal primnoids described from the same locality in 2015) and the remaining 6 taxa are potentially new species, for which we make the raw data, imagery and vouchers available for future taxonomic study. We have used a precautionary approach in taxon assignments to avoid over-estimating species ranges. The Clarion-Clipperton Zone is a region undergoing intense exploration for potential deep-sea mineral extraction. We present these data to facilitate future taxonomic and environmental impact study by making both data and voucher materials available through curated and accessible biological collections. For some of the specimens we also provide image data collected at the seabed by ROV, wich may facilitate more accurate taxon designation in coming ROV or AUV surveys.

The past, present, and future of the U.S. electric power sector: Examining regulatory changes using multivariate time series approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Binder, Kyle Edwin

The U.S. energy sector has undergone continuous change in the regulatory, technological, and market environments. These developments show no signs of slowing. Accordingly, it is imperative that energy market regulators and participants develop a strong comprehension of market dynamics and the potential implications of their actions. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of the past, present, and future of U.S. energy market dynamics and interactions with policy. Advancements in multivariate time series analysis are employed in three related studies of the electric power sector. Overall, results suggest that regulatory changes have had and will continue to have important implications for the electric power sector. The sector, however, has exhibited adaptability to past regulatory changes and is projected to remain resilient in the future. Tests for constancy of the long run parameters in a vector error correction model are applied to determine whether relationships among coal inventories in the electric power sector, input prices, output prices, and opportunity costs have remained constant over the past 38 years. Two periods of instability are found, the first following railroad deregulation in the U.S. and the second corresponding to a number of major regulatory changes in the electric power and natural gas sectors. Relationships among Renewable Energy Credit prices, electricity prices, and natural gas prices are estimated using a vector error correction model. Results suggest that Renewable Energy Credit prices do not completely behave as previously theorized in the literature. Potential reasons for the divergence between theory and empirical evidence are the relative immaturity of current markets and continuous institutional intervention. Potential impacts of future CO2 emissions reductions under the Clean Power Plan on economic and energy sector activity are estimated. Conditional forecasts based on an outlined path for CO2 emissions are

A multivariate geostatistical methodology to delineate areas of potential interest for future sedimentary gold exploration.

Science.gov (United States)

Goovaerts, P; Albuquerque, Teresa; Antunes, Margarida

2016-11-01

This paper describes a multivariate geostatistical methodology to delineate areas of potential interest for future sedimentary gold exploration, with an application to an abandoned sedimentary gold mining region in Portugal. The main challenge was the existence of only a dozen gold measurements confined to the grounds of the old gold mines, which precluded the application of traditional interpolation techniques, such as cokriging. The analysis could, however, capitalize on 376 stream sediment samples that were analyzed for twenty two elements. Gold (Au) was first predicted at all 376 locations using linear regression (R 2 =0.798) and four metals (Fe, As, Sn and W), which are known to be mostly associated with the local gold's paragenesis. One hundred realizations of the spatial distribution of gold content were generated using sequential indicator simulation and a soft indicator coding of regression estimates, to supplement the hard indicator coding of gold measurements. Each simulated map then underwent a local cluster analysis to identify significant aggregates of low or high values. The one hundred classified maps were processed to derive the most likely classification of each simulated node and the associated probability of occurrence. Examining the distribution of the hot-spots and cold-spots reveals a clear enrichment in Au along the Erges River downstream from the old sedimentary mineralization.

NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute: Merging Science and Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Pendleton, Y. J.; Schmidt, G. K.; Bailey, B. E.; Minafra, J. A.

2016-01-01

NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) represents a close collaboration between science, technology and exploration, and was created to enable a deeper understanding of the Moon and other airless bodies. SSERVI is supported jointly by NASA's Science Mission Directorate and Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The institute currently focuses on the scientific aspects of exploration as they pertain to the Moon, Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and the moons of Mars, but the institute goals may expand, depending on NASA's needs, in the future. The 9 initial teams, selected in late 2013 and funded from 2014-2019, have expertise across the broad spectrum of lunar, NEA, and Martian moon sciences. Their research includes various aspects of the surface, interior, exosphere, near-space environments, and dynamics of these bodies. NASA anticipates a small number of additional teams to be selected within the next two years, with a Cooperative Agreement Notice (CAN) likely to be released in 2016. Calls for proposals are issued every 2-3 years to allow overlap between generations of institute teams, but the intent for each team is to provide a stable base of funding for a five year period. SSERVI's mission includes acting as a bridge between several groups, joining together researchers from: 1) scientific and exploration communities, 2) multiple disciplines across a wide range of planetary sciences, and 3) domestic and international communities and partnerships. The SSERVI central office is located at NASA Ames Research Center in Mountain View, CA. The administrative staff at the central office forms the organizational hub for the domestic and international teams and enables the virtual collaborative environment. Interactions with geographically dispersed teams across the U.S., and global partners, occur easily and frequently in a collaborative virtual environment. This poster will provide an overview of the 9 current US teams and

Predicting the Volatility of Cryptocurrency Time–Series

OpenAIRE

Catania, Leopoldo; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco

2018-01-01

Cryptocurrencies have recently gained a lot of interest from investors, central banks and governments worldwide. The lack of any form of political regu- lation and their market far from being “efficient”, require new forms of regulation in the near future. From an econometric viewpoint, the process underlying the evo- lution of the cryptocurrencies’ volatility has been found to exhibit at the same time differences and similarities with other financial time–series, e.g. foreign exchanges retur...

Franchising the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Colomb, Gregory G.

2010-01-01

Central to the future of rhetoric and composition (or writing studies or whatever label we use) is the service mission of composition: to teach students to write. But that term "service" has not and will not serve us well. This essay examines the limitations and dangers of a service mission and explores a different model, that of a franchise, a…

The art of creating futures – Practical theology and a strategic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper explores a futures perspective for practical theology. Although there are some examples of a future orientation, a systematic futures perspective has not been developed. Building on futures studies (including predictive studies on foresight and design and architecture studies), the authors propose a ...

Applied Nanotechnology for Human Space Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Yowell, Leonard L.

2007-01-01

A viewgraph presentation describing nanotechnology for human space exploration is shown. The topics include: 1) NASA's Strategic Vision; 2) Exploration Architecture; 3) Future Exploration Mission Requirements Cannot be met with Conventional Materials; 4) Nanomaterials: Single Wall Carbon Nanotubes; 5) Applied Nanotechnology at JSC: Fundamentals to Applications; 6) Technology Readiness Levels (TRL); 7) Growth, Modeling, Diagnostics and Production; 8) Characterization: Purity, Dispersion and Consistency; 9) Processing; 10) Nanoelectronics: Enabling Technologies; 11) Applications for Human Space Exploration; 12) Exploration Life Support: Atmosphere Revitalization System; 13) Advanced and Exploration Life Support: Regenerable CO2 Removal; 14) Exploration Life Support: Water Recovery; 15) Advanced Life Support: Water Disinfection/Recovery; 16) Power and Energy: Supercapacitors and Fuel Cells; 17) Nanomaterials for EMI Shielding; 18) Active Radiation Dosimeter; 19) Advanced Thermal Protection System (TPS) Repair; 20) Thermal Radiation and Impact Protection (TRIPS); 21) Nanotechnology: Astronaut Health Management; 22) JSC Nanomaterials Group Collaborations.

The Future of Learning Technology: Some Tentative Predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Rushby, Nick

2013-01-01

This paper is a snapshot of an evolving vision of what the future may hold for learning technology. It offers three personal visions of the future and raises many questions that need to be explored if learning technology is to realise its full potential.

Physics at Future Colliders

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John R.

1999-01-01

After a brief review of the Big Issues in particle physics, we discuss the contributions to resolving that could be made by various planned and proposed future colliders. These include future runs of LEP and the Fermilab Tevatron collider, B factories, RHIC, the LHC, a linear electron-positron collider, an electron-proton collider in the LEP/LHC tunnel, a muon collider and a future larger hadron collider (FLHC). The Higgs boson and supersymmetry are used as benchmarks for assessing their capabilities. The LHC has great capacities for precision measurements as well as exploration, but also shortcomings where the complementary strengths of a linear electron-positron collider would be invaluable. It is not too soon to study seriously possible subsequent colliders.

An Exploration Perspective of Beamed Energy Propulsion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cole, John

2008-01-01

The Vision for Exploration is currently focused on flying the Space Shuttle safely to complete our Space Station obligations, retiring the Shuttle in 2010, then returning humans to the Moon and learning how to proceed to Mars and beyond. The NASA budget still includes funds for science and aeronautics but the primary focus is on human exploration. Fiscal constraints have led to pursuing exploration vehicles that use heritage hardware, particularly existing boosters and engines, with the minimum modifications necessary to satisfy mission requirements. So, pursuit of immature technologies is not currently affordable by NASA. Beamed energy is one example of an immature technology, from a human exploration perspective, that may eventually provide significant benefits for human exploration of space, but likely not in the near future. Looking to the more distant future, this paper will examine some of the criteria that must be achieved by beamed energy propulsion to eventually contribute to human exploration of the solar system. The analysis focuses on some of the implications of increasing the payload fraction of a launch vehicle, with a quick look at trans-lunar injection. As one would expect, there is potential for benefit, and there are concerns. The analysis concludes with an assessment of the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) for some beamed energy propulsion components, indicating that TRL 2 is close to being completed

NASA Laboratory Analysis for Manned Exploration Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Krihak, Michael K.; Shaw, Tianna E.

2014-01-01

The Exploration Laboratory Analysis (ELA) project supports the Exploration Medical Capability Element under the NASA Human Research Program. ELA instrumentation is identified as an essential capability for future exploration missions to diagnose and treat evidence-based medical conditions. However, mission architecture limits the medical equipment, consumables, and procedures that will be available to treat medical conditions during human exploration missions. Allocated resources such as mass, power, volume, and crew time must be used efficiently to optimize the delivery of in-flight medical care. Although commercial instruments can provide the blood and urine based measurements required for exploration missions, these commercial-off-the-shelf devices are prohibitive for deployment in the space environment. The objective of the ELA project is to close the technology gap of current minimally invasive laboratory capabilities and analytical measurements in a manner that the mission architecture constraints impose on exploration missions. Besides micro gravity and radiation tolerances, other principal issues that generally fail to meet NASA requirements include excessive mass, volume, power and consumables, and nominal reagent shelf-life. Though manned exploration missions will not occur for nearly a decade, NASA has already taken strides towards meeting the development of ELA medical diagnostics by developing mission requirements and concepts of operations that are coupled with strategic investments and partnerships towards meeting these challenges. This paper focuses on the remote environment, its challenges, biomedical diagnostics requirements and candidate technologies that may lead to successful blood-urine chemistry and biomolecular measurements in future space exploration missions.

Autobiographical memory and episodic future thinking after moderate to severe traumatic brain injury

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Katrine Willemoes; Berntsen, Dorthe

2014-01-01

Converging evidence suggests that autobiographical memory and episodic future thinking share a common neurocognitive basis. Although previous research has shown that traumatic brain injury (TBI) can impair the ability to remember the personal past, episodic future thinking has not previously been...... asked to report a series of events that had happened to them in the past and a series of events that might happen to them in the future. Transcriptions were scored according to a reliable system for categorizing internal (episodic) and external (semantic) information. For each event described......, participants also completed two modified Autobiographical Memory Questionnaire items to assess self-reported phenomenal qualities associated with remembering and imagining. In addition, TBI patients underwent neuropsychological assessment. Results revealed that TBI patients recalled/imagined proportionally...

Spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and theory of mind in children with autism spectrum disorder: evidence for impairments in mental simulation?

Science.gov (United States)

Lind, Sophie E; Bowler, Dermot M; Raber, Jacob

2014-01-01

This study explored spatial navigation alongside several other cognitive abilities that are thought to share common underlying neurocognitive mechanisms (e.g., the capacity for self-projection, scene construction, or mental simulation), and which we hypothesized may be impaired in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Twenty intellectually high-functioning children with ASD (with a mean age of ~8 years) were compared to 20 sex, age, IQ, and language ability matched typically developing children on a series of tasks to assess spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking (also known as episodic foresight or prospection), theory of mind (ToM), relational memory, and central coherence. This is the first study to explore these abilities concurrently within the same sample. Spatial navigation was assessed using the "memory island" task, which involves finding objects within a realistic, computer simulated, three-dimensional environment. Episodic memory and episodic future thinking were assessed using a past and future event description task. ToM was assessed using the "animations" task, in which children were asked to describe the interactions between two animated triangles. Relational memory was assessed using a recognition task involving memory for items (line drawings), patterned backgrounds, or combinations of items and backgrounds. Central coherence was assessed by exploring differences in performance across segmented and unsegmented versions of block design. Children with ASD were found to show impairments in spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and central coherence, but not ToM or relational memory. Among children with ASD, spatial navigation was found to be significantly negatively related to the number of repetitive behaviors. In other words, children who showed more repetitive behaviors showed poorer spatial navigation. The theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.

Spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and theory of mind in children with autism spectrum disorder: Evidence for impairments in mental simulation?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sophie Elizabeth Lind

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This study explored spatial navigation alongside several other cognitive abilities that are thought to share common underlying neurocognitive mechanisms (e.g., the capacity for self-projection, scene construction, or mental simulation, and which we hypothesised may be impaired in autism spectrum disorder (ASD. Twenty intellectually high-functioning children with ASD (with a mean age of ~8 years were compared to 20 sex, age, IQ, and language ability matched typically developing children on a series of tasks to assess spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking (also known as episodic foresight or prospection, theory of mind, relational memory, and central coherence. This is the first study to explore these abilities concurrently within the same sample. Spatial navigation was assessed using the memory island task, which involves finding objects within a realistic, computer simulated, three-dimensional environment. Episodic memory and episodic future thinking were assessed using a past and future event description task. Theory of mind was assessed using the animations task, in which children were asked to describe the interactions between two animated triangles. Relational memory was assessed using a recognition task involving memory for items (line drawings, patterned backgrounds, or combinations of items and backgrounds. Central coherence was assessed by exploring differences in performance across segmented and unsegmented versions of block design. Children with ASD were found to show impairments in spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and central coherence, but not theory of mind or relational memory. Among children with ASD, spatial navigation was found to be significantly negatively related to number of repetitive behaviours. In other words, children who showed more repetitive behaviours showed poorer spatial navigation. The theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.

Spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and theory of mind in children with autism spectrum disorder: evidence for impairments in mental simulation?

Science.gov (United States)

Lind, Sophie E.; Bowler, Dermot M.; Raber, Jacob

2014-01-01

This study explored spatial navigation alongside several other cognitive abilities that are thought to share common underlying neurocognitive mechanisms (e.g., the capacity for self-projection, scene construction, or mental simulation), and which we hypothesized may be impaired in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Twenty intellectually high-functioning children with ASD (with a mean age of ~8 years) were compared to 20 sex, age, IQ, and language ability matched typically developing children on a series of tasks to assess spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking (also known as episodic foresight or prospection), theory of mind (ToM), relational memory, and central coherence. This is the first study to explore these abilities concurrently within the same sample. Spatial navigation was assessed using the “memory island” task, which involves finding objects within a realistic, computer simulated, three-dimensional environment. Episodic memory and episodic future thinking were assessed using a past and future event description task. ToM was assessed using the “animations” task, in which children were asked to describe the interactions between two animated triangles. Relational memory was assessed using a recognition task involving memory for items (line drawings), patterned backgrounds, or combinations of items and backgrounds. Central coherence was assessed by exploring differences in performance across segmented and unsegmented versions of block design. Children with ASD were found to show impairments in spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and central coherence, but not ToM or relational memory. Among children with ASD, spatial navigation was found to be significantly negatively related to the number of repetitive behaviors. In other words, children who showed more repetitive behaviors showed poorer spatial navigation. The theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed. PMID:25538661

Apodized Pupil Lyot Coronagraphs designs for future segmented space telescopes

Science.gov (United States)

St. Laurent, Kathryn; Fogarty, Kevin; Zimmerman, Neil; N’Diaye, Mamadou; Stark, Chris; Sivaramakrishnan, Anand; Pueyo, Laurent; Vanderbei, Robert; Soummer, Remi

2018-01-01

A coronagraphic starlight suppression system situated on a future flagship space observatory offers a promising avenue to image Earth-like exoplanets and search for biomarkers in their atmospheric spectra. One NASA mission concept that could serve as the platform to realize this scientific breakthrough is the Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor (LUVOIR). Such a mission would also address a broad range of topics in astrophysics with a multi-wavelength suite of instruments.In support of the community’s assessment of the scientific capability of a LUVOIR mission, the Exoplanet Exploration Program (ExEP) has launched a multi-team technical study: Segmented Coronagraph Design and Analysis (SCDA). The goal of this study is to develop viable coronagraph instrument concepts for a LUVOIR-type mission. Results of the SCDA effort will directly inform the mission concept evaluation being carried out by the LUVOIR Science and Technology Definition Team. The apodized pupil Lyot coronagraph (APLC) is one of several coronagraph design families that the SCDA study is assessing. The APLC is a Lyot-style coronagraph that suppresses starlight through a series of amplitude operations on the on-axis field. Given a suite of seven plausible segmented telescope apertures, we have developed an object-oriented software toolkit to automate the exploration of thousands of APLC design parameter combinations. In the course of exploring this parameter space we have established relationships between APLC throughput and telescope aperture geometry, Lyot stop, inner working angle, bandwidth, and contrast level. In parallel with the parameter space exploration, we have investigated several strategies to improve the robustness of APLC designs to fabrication and alignment errors and integrated a Design Reference Mission framework to evaluate designs with scientific yield metrics.

Homogenization of Portuguese long-term temperature data series: Lisbon, Coimbra and Porto

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. L. Morozova

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Three long-term temperature data series measured in Portugal were studied to detect and correct non-climatic homogeneity breaks and are now available for future studies of climate variability.

Series of monthly minimum (T_min and maximum (T_max temperatures measured in the three Portuguese meteorological stations of Lisbon (from 1856 to 2008, Coimbra (from 1865 to 2005 and Porto (from 1888 to 2001 were studied to detect and correct non-climatic breaks. These series, together with monthly series of average temperature (T_aver and temperature range (DTR derived from them, were tested in order to detect breaks, using firstly metadata, secondly a visual analysis, and thirdly four widely used homogeneity tests: von Neumann ratio test, Buishand test, standard normal homogeneity test, and Pettitt test. The homogeneity tests were used in absolute (using temperature series themselves and relative (using sea-surface temperature anomalies series obtained from HadISST2.0.0.0 close to the Portuguese coast or already corrected temperature series as reference series modes. We considered the T_min, T_max and DTR series as most informative for the detection of breaks due to the fact that T_min and T_max could respond differently to changes in position of a thermometer or other changes in the instrument's environment; T_aver series have been used mainly as control.

The homogeneity tests showed strong inhomogeneity of the original data series, which could have both internal climatic and non-climatic origins. Breaks that were identified by the last three mentioned homogeneity tests were compared with available metadata containing data such as instrument changes, changes in station location and environment, observation procedures, etc. Significant breaks (significance 95% or more that coincided with known dates of

Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities

Science.gov (United States)

David N., comp. Bengston

2012-01-01

These papers, presented in a special session at the International Symposium on Society and Resource Management in June 2011, explore the transdisciplinary field of futures research and its application to long-range environmental analysis, planning, and policy. Futures research began in the post-World War II era and has emerged as a mature research field. Although the...

Facial firework injury: a case series.

Science.gov (United States)

Tadisina, Kashyap K; Abcarian, Ariane; Omi, Ellen

2014-07-01

Fireworks are used to celebrate a variety of religious, patriotic, and cultural holidays and events around the world. Fireworks are common in the United States, with the most popular holiday for their use being national Independence Day, also known as July Fourth. The use of fireworks within the context of celebrations and holidays presents the ideal environment for accidents that lead to severe and dangerous injuries. Injuries to the face from explosions present a challenging problem in terms of restoring ideal ocular, oral, and facial function. Despite the well documented prevalence of firework use and injury, there is a relatively large deficit in the literature in terms of firework injury that involves the face. We present a unique case series that includes 4 adult male patients all with severe firework injuries to the face that presented at an urban level 1 trauma center. These four patients had an average age of 26.7 years old and presented within 5 hours of each other starting on July Fourth. Two patients died from their injuries and two patients underwent reconstructive surgical management, one of which had two follow up surgeries. We explore in detail their presentation, management, and subsequent outcomes as an attempt to add to the very limited data in the field of facial firework blast injury. In addition, the coincidence of their presentation within the same 5 hours brings into question the availability of the fireworks involved, and the possibility of similar injuries related to this type of firework in the future.

Facial Firework Injury: A Case Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kashyap Tadisina

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Fireworks are used to celebrate a variety of religious, patriotic, and cultural holidays and events around the world. Fireworks are common in the United States, with the most popular holiday for their use being national Independence Day, also known as July Fourth. The use of fireworks within the context of celebrations and holidays presents the ideal environment for accidents that lead to severe and dangerous injuries. Injuries to the face from explosions present a challenging problem in terms of restoring ideal ocular, oral, and facial function. Despite the well documented prevalence of firework use and injury, there is a relatively large deficit in the literature in terms of firework injury that involves the face. We present a unique case series that includes 4 adult male patients all with severe firework injuries to the face that presented at an urban level 1 trauma center. These four patients had an average age of 26.7 years old and presented within 5 hours of each other starting on July Fourth. Two patients died from their injuries and two patients underwent reconstructive surgical management, one of which had two follow up surgeries. We explore in detail their presentation, management, and subsequent outcomes as an attempt to add to the very limited data in the field of facial firework blast injury. In addition, the coincidence of their presentation within the same 5 hours brings into question the availability of the fireworks involved, and the possibility of similar injuries related to this type of firework in the future.

In situ Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy as a tool to discriminate volcanic rocks and magmatic series, Iceland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roux, C.P.M., E-mail: clement.roux@u-bourgogne.fr [Laboratoire interdisciplinaire Carnot de Bourgogne, UMR 6303 CNRS-Université de Bourgogne, BP 47 870, F-21078 Dijon Cedex (France); Rakovský, J.; Musset, O. [Laboratoire interdisciplinaire Carnot de Bourgogne, UMR 6303 CNRS-Université de Bourgogne, BP 47 870, F-21078 Dijon Cedex (France); Monna, F. [Laboratoire ARTéHIS, UMR 6298 CNRS-Université de Bourgogne, 6 Boulevard Gabriel, F-21000 Dijon (France); Buoncristiani, J.-F.; Pellenard, P.; Thomazo, C. [Laboratoire Biogéosciences, UMR 6282 CNRS-Université de Bourgogne, 6 Boulevard Gabriel, F-21000 Dijon (France)

2015-01-01

This study evaluates the potentialities of a lab-made pLIBS (portable Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy) to sort volcanic rocks belonging to various magmatic series. An in-situ chemical analysis of 19 atomic lines, including Al, Ba, Ca, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn, Na, Si, Sr and Ti, from 21 sampled rocks was performed during a field exploration in Iceland. Iceland was chosen both for the various typologies of volcanic rocks and the rugged conditions in the field in order to test the sturdiness of the pLIPS. Elemental compositions were also measured using laboratory ICP-AES measurements on the same samples. Based on these latter results, which can be used to identify three different groups of volcanic rocks, a classification model was built in order to sort pLIBS data and to categorize unknown samples. Using a reliable statistical scheme applied to LIBS compositional data, the classification capability of the pLIBS system is clearly demonstrated (90–100% success rate). Although this prototype does not provide quantitative measurements, its use should be of particular interest for future geological field investigations. - Highlights: • Portable LIBS applied to field geology • Fast semi-quantitative geochemical analysis of volcanic rocks and magmatic series • Discriminant analysis and statistical treatments for LIBS compositional data.

On Sums of Numerical Series and Fourier Series

Science.gov (United States)

Pavao, H. Germano; de Oliveira, E. Capelas

2008-01-01

We discuss a class of trigonometric functions whose corresponding Fourier series, on a conveniently chosen interval, can be used to calculate several numerical series. Particular cases are presented and two recent results involving numerical series are recovered. (Contains 1 note.)

Statistical tools for analysis and modeling of cosmic populations and astronomical time series: CUDAHM and TSE

Science.gov (United States)

Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Scargle, Jeffrey D.

2018-01-01

This presentation provides an overview of open-source software packages addressing two challenging classes of astrostatistics problems. (1) CUDAHM is a C++ framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of cosmic populations, leveraging graphics processing units (GPUs) to enable applying this computationally challenging paradigm to large datasets. CUDAHM is motivated by measurement error problems in astronomy, where density estimation and linear and nonlinear regression must be addressed for populations of thousands to millions of objects whose features are measured with possibly complex uncertainties, potentially including selection effects. An example calculation demonstrates accurate GPU-accelerated luminosity function estimation for simulated populations of $10^6$ objects in about two hours using a single NVIDIA Tesla K40c GPU. (2) Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a collection of software in Python and MATLAB for exploratory analysis and statistical modeling of astronomical time series. It comprises a library of stand-alone functions and classes, as well as an application environment for interactive exploration of times series data. The presentation will summarize key capabilities of this emerging project, including new algorithms for analysis of irregularly-sampled time series.

Identification of neutral biochemical network models from time series data.

Science.gov (United States)

Vilela, Marco; Vinga, Susana; Maia, Marco A Grivet Mattoso; Voit, Eberhard O; Almeida, Jonas S

2009-05-05

The major difficulty in modeling biological systems from multivariate time series is the identification of parameter sets that endow a model with dynamical behaviors sufficiently similar to the experimental data. Directly related to this parameter estimation issue is the task of identifying the structure and regulation of ill-characterized systems. Both tasks are simplified if the mathematical model is canonical, i.e., if it is constructed according to strict guidelines. In this report, we propose a method for the identification of admissible parameter sets of canonical S-systems from biological time series. The method is based on a Monte Carlo process that is combined with an improved version of our previous parameter optimization algorithm. The method maps the parameter space into the network space, which characterizes the connectivity among components, by creating an ensemble of decoupled S-system models that imitate the dynamical behavior of the time series with sufficient accuracy. The concept of sloppiness is revisited in the context of these S-system models with an exploration not only of different parameter sets that produce similar dynamical behaviors but also different network topologies that yield dynamical similarity. The proposed parameter estimation methodology was applied to actual time series data from the glycolytic pathway of the bacterium Lactococcus lactis and led to ensembles of models with different network topologies. In parallel, the parameter optimization algorithm was applied to the same dynamical data upon imposing a pre-specified network topology derived from prior biological knowledge, and the results from both strategies were compared. The results suggest that the proposed method may serve as a powerful exploration tool for testing hypotheses and the design of new experiments.

Infinite series

CERN Document Server

Hirschman, Isidore Isaac

2014-01-01

This text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students presents a rigorous approach that also emphasizes applications. Encompassing more than the usual amount of material on the problems of computation with series, the treatment offers many applications, including those related to the theory of special functions. Numerous problems appear throughout the book.The first chapter introduces the elementary theory of infinite series, followed by a relatively complete exposition of the basic properties of Taylor series and Fourier series. Additional subjects include series of functions and the app

Self-affinity in the dengue fever time series

Science.gov (United States)

Azevedo, S. M.; Saba, H.; Miranda, J. G. V.; Filho, A. S. Nascimento; Moret, M. A.

2016-06-01

Dengue is a complex public health problem that is common in tropical and subtropical regions. This disease has risen substantially in the last three decades, and the physical symptoms depict the self-affine behavior of the occurrences of reported dengue cases in Bahia, Brazil. This study uses detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to verify the scale behavior in a time series of dengue cases and to evaluate the long-range correlations that are characterized by the power law α exponent for different cities in Bahia, Brazil. The scaling exponent (α) presents different long-range correlations, i.e. uncorrelated, anti-persistent, persistent and diffusive behaviors. The long-range correlations highlight the complex behavior of the time series of this disease. The findings show that there are two distinct types of scale behavior. In the first behavior, the time series presents a persistent α exponent for a one-month period. For large periods, the time series signal approaches subdiffusive behavior. The hypothesis of the long-range correlations in the time series of the occurrences of reported dengue cases was validated. The observed self-affinity is useful as a forecasting tool for future periods through extrapolation of the α exponent behavior. This complex system has a higher predictability in a relatively short time (approximately one month), and it suggests a new tool in epidemiological control strategies. However, predictions for large periods using DFA are hidden by the subdiffusive behavior.

Social Media Technology and Public Health in Ontario: Findings from a Planning Meeting Exploring Current Practices and Future Research Directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, Richard; McMurray, Josephine; Regan, Sandra; Kothari, Anita; Donelle, Lorie; McBride, Susan; Sobel, Annette; Hall, Jodi; Fraser, Robert; Foisey, Lyndsay

2017-01-01

In the province of Ontario, many of the public health units (PHUs) now possess and use social media as part of their daily health promotion and communication operations. To explore this topic, a planning meeting was held to generate deeper insights toward the use of these forms of technology for preventative services delivery. The planning meeting was held with 50 participants, comprising representatives from 20 of the 36 PHUs in Ontario, interested academics, students and government representatives. A nominal group technique (NGT) was used to build consensus related to future research needs, as related to public health and social media. Participants generated a range of insights around the use of social media, including the need for: leadership buy-in and resource allocation; social media policy and governance structure; performance measurement and evaluation; practices related to engagement with program recipients and addressing the lack of resources faced by many health units. Future research priorities were also generated, related to evaluating the cost-benefit of social media activities and understanding behaviour change implications. Further research is needed to evaluate the functionality, leadership and competency requirements and impact(s) of these new forms of health communication technology within public health service delivery. Copyright © 2017 Longwoods Publishing.

The Open Gateway: Lunar Exploration in 2050

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, S.; Neal, C.

2017-01-01

The Moon, with its fundamental science questions and abundant, potentially useful re-sources, is the most viable destination for near-term future human and robotic exploration. Given what we have learned since Apollo, the lunar frontier now presents an entirely new paradigm for planetary exploration. The Lunar Exploration Roadmap [1], which was jointly developed by engineers, planetary scientists, commercial entities, and policymakers, is the cohesive strategic plan for using the Moon and its resources to enable the exploration of all other destinations within the Solar system by leveraging incremental, affordable investments in cislunar infrastructure. Here, we summarize the Lunar Exploration Roadmap, and describe the immense benefits that will arise from its successful implementation.

Integration or transformation? Looking in the future of Information and Communication Technology in education in Vietnam.

Science.gov (United States)

Peeraer, Jef; Van Petegem, Peter

2015-02-01

Over the last two decades, crucial factors for Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in education have improved significantly in Vietnam. Nevertheless, it is clear that, as in other countries, no educational revolution is taking place. We argue that there is a need for a broad dialogue on the future of ICT in education in Vietnam as discussion of ideas about future possibilities can be instrumental in rationalizing and generating educational change. We explore how a group of key players representing the public and private sector as well as development partners in the field look at the future of ICT in education in the country. Following the Delphi method, these key players assessed in different survey rounds the current situation of ICT in education, identified a series of targets and were asked to assess these targets in respect of their importance. The key players reached a consensus that the purpose of technology integration is to achieve learning goals and enhance learning. However, there is more controversy on targets that could potentially transform education practice in Vietnam. We discuss the value of the Delphi technique and argue for increased participation of all involved stakeholders in policy development on ICT in education. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future buildings Forum-2025: Toward a methodology for future buildings research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Briggs, R.S.

1990-10-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore methods that could be used in studying buildings of the future. The methodology that the forum will develop will have a number of likely applications, among them: the development of research agendas for new building energy technologies; the development of information and analytical capabilities usable by other IEA annexes to address their technology assessment needs; and the generation of information that can serve as input to global energy models designed to inform energy policy decisions. This paper is divided into two major sections. The first is an overview of existing methods of futures research. Terms and concepts are explained, providing the basis for the second section. The second section proposes a framework and general methodology for studying future buildings. This preliminary, or strawman, methodology is intended to provoke early thinking and discussions on how the research should be approached. 24 refs., 8 figs.

EnerFuture: Long Term Energy Scenarios 'Understanding our energy future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

Enerdata analyses 4 future energy scenarios accounting for 2 economic growth assumptions combined with 2 alternative carbon emission mitigation policies. In this study, a series of analyses supported by graphs assess the energy consumption and intensity forecasts in emerging and developed markets. In particular, one analysis is dedicated to energies competition, including gas, coal and renewable energies. (authors)

Univariate time series modeling and an application to future claims amount in SOCSO's invalidity pension scheme

Science.gov (United States)

Chek, Mohd Zaki Awang; Ahmad, Abu Bakar; Ridzwan, Ahmad Nur Azam Ahmad; Jelas, Imran Md.; Jamal, Nur Faezah; Ismail, Isma Liana; Zulkifli, Faiz; Noor, Syamsul Ikram Mohd

2012-09-01

The main objective of this study is to forecast the future claims amount of Invalidity Pension Scheme (IPS). All data were derived from SOCSO annual reports from year 1972 - 2010. These claims consist of all claims amount from 7 benefits offered by SOCSO such as Invalidity Pension, Invalidity Grant, Survivors Pension, Constant Attendance Allowance, Rehabilitation, Funeral and Education. Prediction of future claims of Invalidity Pension Scheme will be made using Univariate Forecasting Models to predict the future claims among workforce in Malaysia.

Analog series-based scaffolds: computational design and exploration of a new type of molecular scaffolds for medicinal chemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Dimova, Dilyana; Stumpfe, Dagmar; Hu, Ye; Bajorath, Jürgen

2016-01-01

Aim: Computational design of and systematic search for a new type of molecular scaffolds termed analog series-based scaffolds. Materials & methods: From currently available bioactive compounds, analog series were systematically extracted, key compounds identified and new scaffolds isolated from them. Results: Using our computational approach, more than 12,000 scaffolds were extracted from bioactive compounds. Conclusion: A new scaffold definition is introduced and a computational methodology developed to systematically identify such scaffolds, yielding a large freely available scaffold knowledge base. PMID:28116132

Drivers of sustainable future mobility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sigurdardottir, Sigrun Birna

This PhD thesis presents three complementary studies that aimed to enhance knowledge of young people’s longitudinal mobility trends and the factors influencing adolescents’ future mobility intentions. First study was an analysis of Danish national travel survey data (TU) from 1995 to 2012....... The sample consisted of young people divided into four age groups: 15-19 year old, 20-24 year old, 25-29 year old and 30-34 year old. The analysis explores the development of gender gaps for rural and urban living location. The mobility indicators analysed were; driving licence status, travel mode, distance...... is still an important subject in transportation research and future development for young people should be monitored closely. The second study was an internet based survey with the aim to explore a range of mediating factors influencing 15 year old adolescents’ intentions to commute by means of car...

Towards human exploration of space: The THESEUS review series on immunology research priorities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jean-Pol, Frippiat; Crucian, Brian E; de Quervain, Dominique

2016-01-01

to maintain immune homeostasis under such challenges. In the framework of the THESEUS project whose aim was to develop an integrated life sciences research roadmap regarding human space exploration, experts working in the field of space immunology, and related disciplines, established a questionnaire sent...

Engineering America's Future in Space: Systems Engineering Innovations for Sustainable Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Dumbacher, Daniel L.; Caruso, Pamela W.; Jones, Carl P.

2008-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews systems engineering innovations for Ares I and Ares V launch vehicles. The contents include: 1) NASA's Exploratoin Roadmap; 2) Launch Vehicle Comparisons; 3) Designing the Ares I and Ares V in House; 4) Exploring the Moon; and 5) Systems Engineering Adds Value Throughout the Project Lifecycle.

Travel Series as TV Entertainment: Genre characteristics and touristic views on foreign countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne Marit Waade

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Why is it not the deprived developing country, but rather the tempting destination the host arrives in when guiding the audience in a travel series? And how can we explore the specific combination of entertainment and education that travel series represent? Basically the travel series genre is a hybrid of journalistic documentary, entertaining lifestyle series and TV ads and the different series put different emphasis on the different genre elements. Travel series represent a certain kind of mediated consumption and they reflect lifestyle identity in relation to touristic consumer cultures. Like other lifestyle series dealing with consumption products and lifestyle markers encompassing fashion, food, garden, design and interior that balance somewhere between journalism and advertising, travel series typically deal with destinations, travel modes, cultural experiences and food as commodities. To understand the cultural and democratic value of travel series as a popular TV genre in the context of public service broadcasting, it is not the fact that the series contain educative and enlightening information about foreign cultures told in an entertaining and popular way that are of my interest. Rather it is tourism and media consumer culture as such, one has to expound as valuable democratic and cultural practice. The article presents different matrices of the respectively cultural and consumer knowledge that the different types of travel series include.

Geospace exploration project: Arase (ERG)

Science.gov (United States)

Miyoshi, Y.; Kasaba, Y.; Shinohara, I.; Takashima, T.; Asamura, K.; Matsumoto, H.; Higashio, N.; Mitani, T.; Kasahara, S.; Yokota, S.; Wang, S.; Kazama, Y.; Kasahara, Y.; Yagitani, S.; Matsuoka, A.; Kojima, H.; Katoh, Y.; Shiokawa, K.; Seki, K.; Fujimoto, M.; Ono, T.; ERG project Group

2017-06-01

The ERG (Exploration of energization and Radiation in Geospace) is Japanese geospace exploration project. The project focuses on relativistic electron acceleration mechanism of the outer belt and dynamics of space storms in the context of the cross-energy coupling via wave-particle interactions. The project consists of the satellite observation team, the ground-based network observation team, and integrated-data analysis/simulation team. The satellite was launched on December 20 2016 and has been nicknamed, “Arase”. This paper describes overview of the project and future plan for observations.

Towards human exploration of space: The THESEUS review series on immunology research priorities.

Science.gov (United States)

Frippiat, Jean-Pol; Crucian, Brian E; de Quervain, Dominique J-F; Grimm, Daniela; Montano, Nicola; Praun, Siegfried; Roozendaal, Benno; Schelling, Gustav; Thiel, Manfred; Ullrich, Oliver; Choukèr, Alexander

2016-01-01

Dysregulation of the immune system occurs during spaceflight and may represent a crew health risk during exploration missions because astronauts are challenged by many stressors. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the biology of immune modulation under spaceflight conditions in order to be able to maintain immune homeostasis under such challenges. In the framework of the THESEUS project whose aim was to develop an integrated life sciences research roadmap regarding human space exploration, experts working in the field of space immunology, and related disciplines, established a questionnaire sent to scientists around the world. From the review of collected answers, they deduced a list of key issues and provided several recommendations such as a maximal exploitation of currently available resources on Earth and in space, and to increase increments duration for some ISS crew members to 12 months or longer. These recommendations should contribute to improve our knowledge about spaceflight effects on the immune system and the development of countermeasures that, beyond astronauts, could have a societal impact.

Interactions among Future Study Abroad Students: Exploring Potential Intercultural Learning Sequences

Science.gov (United States)

Borghetti, C.; Beaven, A.; Pugliese, R.

2015-01-01

The study presented in this article aims to explore if and how intercultural learning may take place in students' class interaction. It is grounded in the assumption that interculturality is not a clear-cut feature inherent to interactions occurring when individuals with presumed different linguistic and cultural/national backgrounds talk to each…

Graphical Visualization of Human Exploration Capabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Erica M.; Williams-Byrd, Julie; Arney, Dale C.; Simon, Matthew A.; Williams, Phillip A.; Barsoum, Christopher; Cowan, Tyler; Larman, Kevin T.; Hay, Jason; Burg, Alex

2016-01-01

NASA's pioneering space strategy will require advanced capabilities to expand the boundaries of human exploration on the Journey to Mars (J2M). The Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC) architecture serves as a framework to identify critical capabilities that need to be developed and tested in order to enable a range of human exploration destinations and missions. Agency-wide System Maturation Teams (SMT) are responsible for the maturation of these critical exploration capabilities and help formulate, guide and resolve performance gaps associated with the EMC-identified capabilities. Systems Capability Organization Reporting Engine boards (SCOREboards) were developed to integrate the SMT data sets into cohesive human exploration capability stories that can be used to promote dialog and communicate NASA's exploration investments. Each SCOREboard provides a graphical visualization of SMT capability development needs that enable exploration missions, and presents a comprehensive overview of data that outlines a roadmap of system maturation needs critical for the J2M. SCOREboards are generated by a computer program that extracts data from a main repository, sorts the data based on a tiered data reduction structure, and then plots the data according to specified user inputs. The ability to sort and plot varying data categories provides the flexibility to present specific SCOREboard capability roadmaps based on customer requests. This paper presents the development of the SCOREboard computer program and shows multiple complementary, yet different datasets through a unified format designed to facilitate comparison between datasets. Example SCOREboard capability roadmaps are presented followed by a discussion of how the roadmaps are used to: 1) communicate capability developments and readiness of systems for future missions, and 2) influence the definition of NASA's human exploration investment portfolio through capability-driven processes. The paper concludes with a description

EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL DIVERSITY OF EARLY TYPE IA SUPERNOVA LIGHT CURVES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piro, Anthony L. [Carnegie Observatories, 813 Santa Barbara Street, Pasadena, CA 91101 (United States); Morozova, Viktoriya S., E-mail: piro@obs.carnegiescience.edu [Theoretical Astrophysics, California Institute of Technology, 1200 E California Boulevard, M/C 350-17, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)

2016-07-20

During the first several days after explosion, Type Ia supernova light curves probe the outer layers of the exploding star, and therefore provide important clues for identifying their progenitors. We investigate how both the shallow {sup 56}Ni distribution and the presence of circumstellar material shape these early light curves. This is performed using a series of numerical experiments with parameterized properties for systematic exploration. Although not all of the considered models may be realized in nature (and indeed there are arguments why some of them should not occur), the spirit of this work is to provide a broader exploration of the diversity of possibilities. We find that shallower {sup 56}Ni leads to steeper, bluer light curves. Differences in the shape of the rise can introduce errors in estimating the explosion time, and thus impact efforts to infer upper limits on the progenitor or companion radius from a lack of observed shock cooling emission. Circumstellar material can lead to significant luminosity during the first few days, but its presence can be difficult to identify depending on the degree of nickel mixing. In some cases, the hot emission of circumstellar material may even lead to a signature similar to an interaction with a companion, and thus in the future additional diagnostics should be gathered for properly assessing early light curves.

Robotic In-Situ Surface Exploration System (RISES)

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — NASA's Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) is a pivotal and daring approach that will mature multiple technologies for future deep space exploration. ARM seeks to...

Emerging properties of financial time series in the ``Game of Life''

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández-Montoya, A. R.; Coronel-Brizio, H. F.; Stevens-Ramírez, G. A.; Rodríguez-Achach, M.; Politi, M.; Scalas, E.

2011-12-01

We explore the spatial complexity of Conway’s “Game of Life,” a prototypical cellular automaton by means of a geometrical procedure generating a two-dimensional random walk from a bidimensional lattice with periodical boundaries. The one-dimensional projection of this process is analyzed and it turns out that some of its statistical properties resemble the so-called stylized facts observed in financial time series. The scope and meaning of this result are discussed from the viewpoint of complex systems. In particular, we stress how the supposed peculiarities of financial time series are, often, overrated in their importance.

Communication System Architecture for Planetary Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Braham, Stephen P.; Alena, Richard; Gilbaugh, Bruce; Glass, Brian; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Future human missions to Mars will require effective communications supporting exploration activities and scientific field data collection. Constraints on cost, size, weight and power consumption for all communications equipment make optimization of these systems very important. These information and communication systems connect people and systems together into coherent teams performing the difficult and hazardous tasks inherent in planetary exploration. The communication network supporting vehicle telemetry data, mission operations, and scientific collaboration must have excellent reliability, and flexibility.

Science and Reconnaissance from the Europa Clipper Mission Concept: Exploring Europa's Habitability

Science.gov (United States)

Pappalardo, Robert; Senske, David; Prockter, Louise; Paczkowski, Brian; Vance, Steve; Goldstein, Barry; Magner, Thomas; Cooke, Brian

2015-04-01

Europa is recognized by the Planetary Science De-cadal Survey as a prime candidate to search for a pre-sent-day habitable environment in our solar system. As such, NASA has pursued a series of studies, facilitated by a Europa Science Definition Team (SDT), to define a strategy to best advance our scientific understanding of this icy world with the science goal: Explore Europa to investigate its habitability. (In June of 2014, the SDT completed its task of identifying the overarching science objectives and investigations.) Working in concert with a technical team, a set of mission archi-tectures were evaluated to determine the best way to achieve the SDT defined science objectives. The fa-vored architecture would consist of a spacecraft in Ju-piter orbit making many close flybys of Europa, con-centrating on remote sensing to explore the moon. In-novative mission design would use gravitational per-turbations of the spacecraft trajectory to permit flybys at a wide variety of latitudes and longitudes, enabling globally distributed regional coverage of Europa's sur-face, with nominally 45 close flybys, typically at alti-tudes from 25 to 100 km. This concept has become known as the Europa Clipper. The Europa SDT recommended three science ob-jectives for the Europa Clipper: Ice Shell and Ocean: Characterize the ice shell and any subsurface water, including their heterogeneity, ocean properties, and the nature of surface-ice-ocean exchange; Composition: Understand the habitability of Europa's ocean through composition and chemistry; and Geology: Understand the formation of surface features, including sites of recent or current activity, and characterize high science interest localities. The Europa SDT also considered implications of the Hubble Space Telescope detection of possible plumes at Europa. To feed forward to potential subsequent future ex-ploration that could be enabled by a lander, it was deemed that the Europa Clipper mission concept should provide the

Robotic exploration of the solar system

CERN Document Server

Ulivi, Paolo

In Robotic Exploration of the Solar System, Paolo Ulivi and David Harland provide a comprehensive account of the design and managment of deep-space missions, the spacecraft involved - some flown, others not - their instruments, and their scientific results. This third volume in the series covers launches in the period 1997 to 2003 and features: - a chapter entirely devoted to the Cassini-Huygens mission to Saturn; - coverage of planetary missions of the period, including the Deep Space 1 mission and the Stardust and Hayabusa sample returns from comets and asteroids; - extensive coverage of Mars exploration, the failed 1999 missions, Mars Odyssey, Mars Express, and the twin rovers Spirit and Opportunity. The story will continue in Part 4.

“ALGORITHMIC SUSTAINABLE DESIGN: THE FUTURE OF ARCHITECTURAL THEORY”, A SERIES OF 12 LECTURES BY NIKOS A. SALINGAROS.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicola Giacomo A.G. Linza IV

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Professor Nikos A. Salingaros, a practicing Urbanist and Architectural Theorist, presents a powerful series of compelling hour-long lectures that apply cutting-edge mathematical techniques to architectural design. This breakthrough lecture series seeks to explain the foundations of architectural form using scientific concepts from hierarchical scaling to memes. Dr. Salingaros has applied the most exciting scientific developments of the past decade, such as fractals, complexity theory, evolutionary biology, and artificial intelligence to produce a series of lectures explaining in great detail the mathematical and scientific basis behind structure, and how structures affect the way in which human beings interact with the built environment. The twelve lectures were integrated to relate topics such as algorithmic processes, cellular automata, Sierpinski carpets, harmony-seeking computations, generative codes, and New Urbanist codes. The lectures were transmitted live via streaming video to participating institutions throughout the world, and have now been made freely available.

Lasers and future high energy colliders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parsa, Z.

1998-02-01

Future high energy colliders, directions for particle physics and relationship to new technology such as lasers are discussed. Experimental approaches to explore New Physics with emphasis on the utility of high energy colliders are also discussed

Future Shop: A Model Career Placement & Transition Laboratory.

Science.gov (United States)

Floyd, Deborah L.; And Others

During 1988-89, the Collin County Community College District (CCCCD) conducted a project to develop, implement, and evaluate a model career laboratory called a "Future Shop." The laboratory was designed to let users explore diverse career options, job placement opportunities, and transfer resources. The Future Shop lab had three major components:…

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Executive Summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mai, T.; Sandor, D.; Wiser, R.; Schneider, T.

2012-12-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

An Exploration of Effects of Bullying Victimization From a Complete Mental Health Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aileen Fullchange

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study explored the effects of being bullied from a dual-factor lens, specifically examining the relation between victimization and constructs that contribute to social-emotional well-being. Prior to carrying out the main analyses, the factor structure of self-report items related to experiencing bullying and harassment from the California Healthy Kids Survey, which was administered to more than 14,000 high school students, was examined to establish that these items represent an overall factor: students’ experience of victimization. This factor was then used as an independent variable in a series of planned comparisons with a dependent variable represented by constructs addressed by the Social Emotional Health Survey–Secondary: belief-in-self, emotional competence, belief-in-others, and engaged living. With increased frequency of victimization, suicidality increased and belief-in-others decreased. For other constructs, belief-in-self, engaged living, and depression, there were significant differences found between individuals who had experienced frequencies of bullying as low as less than once a month and those who did not experience bullying at all but no further detrimental impacts were seen with even higher frequencies of victimization, indicating that being victimized at all is significantly worse than not being victimized for these variables. Implications and future directions for research are explored.

Hotel chains: survival strategies for a dynamic future

OpenAIRE

Brendan Richard

2017-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to better understand the future of hotel chains by exploring the evolving expectations of guests, potential innovations, emerging opportunities, and likely future scenarios. Design/methodology/approach – A literature review consisting of current events, industry reports, and recent trends is utilized to summarize and categorize the challenges and opportunities facing hotel chains. Findings – The future of hotel chains will be driven by the convergence of...

Relationship between crimes and economic conditions in Pakistan: a time series approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Raja, Mohsin Gulzar; Ullah, Kafait

2013-01-01

Using the time series data from 1990-2011, this paper is an attempt to explore the relationship between economic conditions and criminal activities in Pakistan. Three variables are being used for economic conditions like increasing female employment in labor market, CPI which denotes inflation and

Introduction of JAXA Lunar and Planetary Exploration Data Analysis Group: Landing Site Analysis for Future Lunar Polar Exploration Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Otake, H.; Ohtake, M.; Ishihara, Y.; Masuda, K.; Sato, H.; Inoue, H.; Yamamoto, M.; Hoshino, T.; Wakabayashi, S.; Hashimoto, T.

2018-04-01

JAXA established JAXA Lunar and Planetary Exploration Data Analysis Group (JLPEDA) at 2016. Our group has been analyzing lunar and planetary data for various missions. Here, we introduce one of our activities.

Overseas uranium exploration by PNC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagashima, Reiji; Iida, Yoshimasa; Shigeta, Naotaka; Takahashi, Osamu; Yamagishi, Akiko; Miyada, Hatsuho; Kobayashi, Takao

1998-01-01

Japan entirely depends on overseas countries for uranium resources for its nuclear electric power generation due to the lack of domestic resources. In order to secure a steady supply of natural uranium, Japanese government has implemented a long-term procurement policy through purchase contracts by private sectors, subsidizing private sectors' exploration and initial stage exploration outside the reach of private sectors' activity by PNC (Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation). The subsequent long slump in the price of uranium, however, led most of Japanese private sectors to discontinue their exploration activity. Upon this situation, PNC has pursued a little more advanced stage exploration in addition to basic research and initial stage exploration and has improved its exploration techniques to enable the discovery of deep-seated uranium ore deposits. As the result, PNC has acquired significant uranium exploration tenements and interests similar to those owned by major uranium companies such as Cameco and Cogema. PNC has also contributed to discovery of new uranium deposits. In this report, the history of PNC's activities and its role in the long-term uranium procurement policy are reviewed and it is also described about the outcome thorough its activities and future exploration trend and the tasks. (author)

Developing DIVE, a design-led futures technique for SMEs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mejia Sarmiento, J.R.; Pasman, G.J.; Hultink, H.J.; Stappers, P.J.; Vogel, C.; Muratovski, G.

2017-01-01

Futures techniques have long been used in large enterprises as designerly means to explore the future and guide innovation. In the automotive industry, for instance, the development of concept cars is a technique which has repeatedly proven its value. However, while big companies have broadly

Finding Futures: A Spatio-Visual Experiment In Participatory Engagement

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davies, Sarah Rachael; Selin, Cynthia; Gano, Gretchen

2013-01-01

The Finding Futures Project explores innovative ways of deliberating the future of cities through an emphasis on embodied spatio-visual engagement with urban landscapes. The first instantiation of the project - which took place in Lisbon in 2011 - is reported through a discussion of the project's...

Backwardation in energy futures markets: Metalgesellschaft revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charupat, N.; Deaves, R.

2003-01-01

Energy supply contracts negotiated by the US Subsidiary of Metalgesellschaft Refining and Marketing (MGRM), which were the subject of much subsequent debate, are re-examined. The contracts were hedged by the US Subsidiary barrel-for-barrel using short-dated energy derivatives. When the hedge program experienced difficulties, the derivatives positions were promptly liquidated by the parent company. Revisiting the MGRM contracts also provides the opportunity to explore the latest evidence on backwardation in energy markets. Accordingly, the paper discusses first the theoretical reasons for backwardation, followed by an empirical examination using the MGRM data available at the time of the hedge program in 1992 and a second set of data that became available in 2000. By using a more up-to-date data set covering a longer time period and by controlling the time series properties of the data, the authors expect to provide more reliable empirical evidence on the behaviour of energy futures prices. Results based on the 1992 data suggest that the strategy employed by MGRM could be expected to be profitable while the risks are relatively low. However, analysis based on the 2000 data shows lower, although still significant profits, but higher risks. The final conclusion was that the likelihood of problems similar to those faced by MGRM in 1992 are twice as high with the updated 2000 data, suggesting that the risk-return pattern of the stack-and-roll hedging strategy using short-dated energy future contracts to hedge long-tem contracts is less appealing now than when MGRM implemented its hedging program in 1992. 24 refs., 3 tabs., 6 figs

Formulating and testing a method for perturbing precipitation time series to reflect anticipated climatic changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Georgiadis, Stylianos; Gregersen, Ida Bülow

2017-01-01

Urban water infrastructure has very long planning horizons, and planning is thus very dependent on reliable estimates of the impacts of climate change. Many urban water systems are designed using time series with a high temporal resolution. To assess the impact of climate change on these systems......, similarly high-resolution precipitation time series for future climate are necessary. Climate models cannot at their current resolutions provide these time series at the relevant scales. Known methods for stochastic downscaling of climate change to urban hydrological scales have known shortcomings...... in constructing realistic climate-changed precipitation time series at the sub-hourly scale. In the present study we present a deterministic methodology to perturb historical precipitation time series at the minute scale to reflect non-linear expectations to climate change. The methodology shows good skill...

The future of practical skills in undergraduate medical education - an explorative Delphi-Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Dannenberg, Katja Anne; Stroben, Fabian; Schröder, Therese; Thomas, Anke; Hautz, Wolf E

2016-01-01

64% of young medical professionals in Germany do not feel adequately prepared for the practical requirements of the medical profession. The goal of "outcome-orientated training" is to structure medical curricula based on the skills needed when entering the workforce after completing undergraduate medical education, and thus to bridge the gap between the skills graduates have attained and those necessary for a career in the medical profession. Outcome frameworks (OFs) are used for this purpose. In preparation for developing the National Competence-Based Catalogue of Learning Objectives for Medicine (NKLM) - the German OF - the "Consensus Statement of Practical Skills in Undergraduate Medical Education" (which structures the teaching and acquisition of practical skills in Germany and which strongly influenced the "Clinical-Practical Skills" chapter of the NKLM) was published in 2011. It is not uncommon for at least a decade to elapse between the definition and implementation of an OF and the students' graduation, which can further increase the gap between necessary and acquired skills. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to posit theses for future development in healthcare and to apply these theses to a current OF. Partially structured interviews with experts were used to generate theses pertaining to general, future development in healthcare. These theses were assessed by physician experts based on the likelihood of implementation by the year 2025. The 288 learning goals of the consensus statement were assessed for their relevance for medical education in the interim. 11 theses were generated for the development of medicine, and these theses were assessed and discussed by 738 experts. These theses include the increase in diseases associated with old age, the increasing significance of interprofessional cooperation, and the growing prevalence of telemedicine applications. Of the 288 learning goals of the consensus statement, 231 of the goals were assessed as relevant

Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

2009-12-03

Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

Human Exploration System Test-Bed for Integration and Advancement (HESTIA) Support of Future NASA Deep-Space Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Marmolejo, Jose; Ewert, Michael

2016-01-01

The Engineering Directorate at the NASA - Johnson Space Center is outfitting a 20-Foot diameter hypobaric chamber in Building 7 to support future deep-space Environmental Control & Life Support System (ECLSS) research as part of the Human Exploration System Test-bed for Integration and Advancement (HESTIA) Project. This human-rated chamber is the only NASA facility that has the unique experience, chamber geometry, infrastructure, and support systems capable of conducting this research. The chamber was used to support Gemini, Apollo, and SkyLab Missions. More recently, it was used to conduct 30-, 60-, and 90-day human ECLSS closed-loop testing in the 1990s to support the International Space Station and life support technology development. NASA studies show that both planetary surface and deep-space transit crew habitats will be 3-4 story cylindrical structures driven by human occupancy volumetric needs and launch vehicle constraints. The HESTIA facility offers a 3-story, 20-foot diameter habitat consistent with the studies' recommendations. HESTIA operations follow stringent processes by a certified test team that including human testing. Project management, analysis, design, acquisition, fabrication, assembly and certification of facility build-ups are available to support this research. HESTIA offers close proximity to key stakeholders including astronauts, Human Research Program (who direct space human research for the agency), Mission Operations, Safety & Mission Assurance, and Engineering Directorate. The HESTIA chamber can operate at reduced pressure and elevated oxygen environments including those proposed for deep-space exploration. Data acquisition, power, fluids and other facility resources are available to support a wide range of research. Recently completed HESTIA research consisted of unmanned testing of ECLSS technologies. Eventually, the HESTIA research will include humans for extended durations at reduced pressure and elevated oxygen to demonstrate

Transformative Learning for a Sustainable Future: An Exploration of Pedagogies for Change at an Alternative College

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joanna Blake

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Educators and policy makers have long recognised the central role that education can play in creating a more sustainable and equitable world. Yet some question whether current processes across mainstream higher education prepare learners sufficiently to graduate with the capabilities or motivation to shape and create a future that is life-sustaining. This paper presents findings from a qualitative research project carried out by Plymouth University in association with Schumacher College, Devon, UK. Schumacher College is an alternative, civil society college, owned by the Dartington Hall Trust that claims to provide transformative learning opportunities within a broad context of sustainability. The study explored the nature and application of transformative learning as a pedagogical approach to advance change towards sustainability. If learners claimed transformational learning experiences, the research asked whether, and to what extent, this transformation could be attributed to the pedagogies employed at the College. The paper begins by setting out the broad background to the relationship between marginal and mainstream educational settings, and definitions and theoretical underpinnings of transformative learning, and then leads into the research design and findings. The potential for transformative pedagogies to be applied to and employed within the wider higher education (HE sector is then discussed, and the overall findings and conclusions are presented.

Biomicrofluidics: Recent trends and future challenges

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Logo of the Indian Academy of Sciences ... Biomicrofluidics is an active area of research at present, exploring the synergy of microfluidics with cellular and molecular biology, ... Future directions of research on these topics are also discussed.

Identification of neutral biochemical network models from time series data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maia Marco

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The major difficulty in modeling biological systems from multivariate time series is the identification of parameter sets that endow a model with dynamical behaviors sufficiently similar to the experimental data. Directly related to this parameter estimation issue is the task of identifying the structure and regulation of ill-characterized systems. Both tasks are simplified if the mathematical model is canonical, i.e., if it is constructed according to strict guidelines. Results In this report, we propose a method for the identification of admissible parameter sets of canonical S-systems from biological time series. The method is based on a Monte Carlo process that is combined with an improved version of our previous parameter optimization algorithm. The method maps the parameter space into the network space, which characterizes the connectivity among components, by creating an ensemble of decoupled S-system models that imitate the dynamical behavior of the time series with sufficient accuracy. The concept of sloppiness is revisited in the context of these S-system models with an exploration not only of different parameter sets that produce similar dynamical behaviors but also different network topologies that yield dynamical similarity. Conclusion The proposed parameter estimation methodology was applied to actual time series data from the glycolytic pathway of the bacterium Lactococcus lactis and led to ensembles of models with different network topologies. In parallel, the parameter optimization algorithm was applied to the same dynamical data upon imposing a pre-specified network topology derived from prior biological knowledge, and the results from both strategies were compared. The results suggest that the proposed method may serve as a powerful exploration tool for testing hypotheses and the design of new experiments.

Travel Cost Inference from Sparse, Spatio-Temporally Correlated Time Series Using Markov Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Bin; Guo, Chenjuan; Jensen, Christian S.

2013-01-01

of such time series offers insight into the underlying system and enables prediction of system behavior. While the techniques presented in the paper apply more generally, we consider the case of transportation systems and aim to predict travel cost from GPS tracking data from probe vehicles. Specifically, each...... road segment has an associated travel-cost time series, which is derived from GPS data. We use spatio-temporal hidden Markov models (STHMM) to model correlations among different traffic time series. We provide algorithms that are able to learn the parameters of an STHMM while contending...... with the sparsity, spatio-temporal correlation, and heterogeneity of the time series. Using the resulting STHMM, near future travel costs in the transportation network, e.g., travel time or greenhouse gas emissions, can be inferred, enabling a variety of routing services, e.g., eco-routing. Empirical studies...

Clinical time series prediction: Toward a hierarchical dynamical system framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2015-09-01

Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patients in the training set, and then using it to predict future time series values for the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical time series prediction: towards a hierarchical dynamical system framework

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2014-01-01

Objective Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Materials and methods Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. Results We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patient in the training set, and then applying the model in order to predict future time series values on the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. Conclusion A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive

Leading the 21st-century academic library successful strategies for envisioning and realizing preferred futures

CERN Document Server

Eden, Bradford Lee

2015-01-01

Leading the 21st Century Academic Library: Successful Strategies for Envisioning and Realizing Preferred Futures will explore the new roles and directions academic libraries are taking in the 21st century as a consequence of visionary leadership in exploring diverse futures.

Development of NASA's Small Fission Power System for Science and Human Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Gibson, Marc A.; Mason, Lee S.; Bowman, Cheryl L.; Poston, David I.; McClure, Patrick R.; Creasy, John; Robinson, Chris

2015-01-01

Exploration of our solar system has brought many exciting challenges to our nations scientific and engineering community over the past several decades. As we expand our visions to explore new, more challenging destinations, we must also expand our technology base to support these new missions. NASAs Space Technology Mission Directorate is tasked with developing these technologies for future mission infusion and continues to seek answers to many existing technology gaps. One such technology gap is related to compact power systems (1 kWe) that provide abundant power for several years where solar energy is unavailable or inadequate. Below 1 kWe, Radioisotope Power Systems have been the workhorse for NASA and will continue to be used for lower power applications similar to the successful missions of Voyager, Ulysses, New Horizons, Cassini, and Curiosity. Above 1 kWe, fission power systems become an attractive technology offering a scalable modular design of the reactor, shield, power conversion, and heat transport subsystems. Near term emphasis has been placed in the 1-10kWe range that lies outside realistic radioisotope power levels and fills a promising technology gap capable of enabling both science and human exploration missions. History has shown that development of space reactors is technically, politically, and financially challenging and requires a new approach to their design and development. A small team of NASA and DOE experts are providing a solution to these enabling FPS technologies starting with the lowest power and most cost effective reactor series named Kilopower that is scalable from approximately 1-10 kWe.

Robotic Tool Changer for Planetary Exploration, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Future planetary exploration missions will require compact, lightweight robotic manipulators for handling a variety of tools & instruments without increasing the...

Experiment of exploration using the active-faults exploration system; Katsudanso tansa system wo mochiita chika tansa jikken

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mikada, H; Sato, H; Iwasaki, T; Hirata, N [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan). Earthquake Research Institute; Ikeda, Y [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan). Faculty of Science; Ikawa, T; Kawabe, Y; Aoki, Y [JAPEX Geoscience Institute, Tokyo (Japan)

1996-10-01

A system for exploration of active-faults by seismic reflection profiling method was introduced at Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo. A test-run was conducted to check the performance of this system at Ranzan, Saitama Prefecture. This paper describes the confirmed performance of mini-VIB as a wide band frequency seismic source, the quality of data obtained using a digital data acquisition system, and problems for data processing of fault exploration in the future. For the test-run at Ranzan, two-dimensional exploration was conducted by the quasi-three-dimensional data acquisition method using three geophones of 8 Hz, 28 Hz, and 40 Hz, simply arranged in parallel on the measurement line. Using an active seismic vibrator, mini-VIB, data acquisition of faults in the wide band frequency was achieved, which would result in the highly accurate imaging. Operation of data acquisition and processing systems is easy, and the system can be also used as a kind of black box. The existing methods are to be used sufficiently as a tool for imaging of faults. Further research for accumulating experience may become necessary toward the extension of the system expected in the future. 5 refs., 6 figs.

Exploring vocabulary language in action

CERN Document Server

Gardner, Dee

2013-01-01

Routledge Introductions to Applied Linguistics is a series of introductory level textbooks covering the core topics in Applied Linguistics, primarily designed for those beginning postgraduate studies, or taking an introductory MA course as well as advanced undergraduates. Titles in the series are also ideal for language professionals returning to academic study. The books take an innovative 'practice to theory' approach, with a 'back-to-front' structure. This leads the reader from real-world problems and issues, through a discussion of intervention and how to engage with these concerns, before finally relating these practical issues to theoretical foundations. Additional features include tasks with commentaries, a glossary of key terms, and an annotated further reading section. Vocabulary is the foundation of language and language learning and as such, knowledge of how to facilitate learners’ vocabulary growth is an indispensable teaching skill and curricular component. Exploring Vocabulary is designed t...

Magnetic Field Emission Comparison for Series-Parallel and Series-Series Wireless Power Transfer to Vehicles – PART 2/2

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Batra, Tushar; Schaltz, Erik

2014-01-01

Series-series and series-parallel topologies are the most favored topologies for design of wireless power transfer system for vehicle applications. The series-series topology has the advantage of reflecting only the resistive part on the primary side. On the other hand, the current source output...... characteristics of the series-parallel topology are more suited for the battery of the vehicle. This paper compares the two topologies in terms of magnetic emissions to the surroundings for the same input power, primary current, quality factor and inductors. Theoretical and simulation results show that the series...

Can trade opportunities and returns be generated in a trend persistent series? Evidence from global indices

Science.gov (United States)

Mitra, S. K.; Bawa, Jaslene

2017-03-01

In this study, we explore the possibility of generating trade opportunities and returns when a financial stock index series is trend persistent. Through application of Hurst coefficient based on the modified range to standard deviation analysis (Weron, 2002) in a sample of 31 leading global indices during the period December 2000 to November 2015, we found periods of trend persistence. We developed and tested a set of trading strategies on these periods of trend persistent in the financial series and found that significant positive returns can be generated when a series displayed upward trend persistence.

Complex dynamic behaviors of oriented percolation-based financial time series and Hang Seng index

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We develop a financial time series model by two-dimensional oriented percolation system. • We investigate the statistical behaviors of returns for HSI and the financial model by chaos-exploring methods. • We forecast the phase point of reconstructed phase space by RBF neural network. -- Abstract: We develop a financial price model by the two-dimensional oriented (directed) percolation system. The oriented percolation model is a directed variant of ordinary (isotropic) percolation, and it is applied to describe the fluctuations of stock prices. In this work, we assume that the price fluctuations result from the participants’ investment attitudes toward the market, and we investigate the information spreading among the traders and the corresponding effect on the price fluctuations. We study the complex dynamic behaviors of return time series of the model by using the multiaspect chaos-exploring methods. And we also explore the corresponding behaviors of the actual market index (Hang Seng Index) for comparison. Further, we introduce the radial basic function (RBF) neural network to train and forecast the phase point of reconstructed phase space

Existing and new techniques in uranium exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowie, S.H.U.; Cameron, J.

1976-01-01

The demands on uranium exploration over the next 25 years will be very great indeed and will call for every possible means of improvement in exploration capability. The first essential is to increase geological knowledge of the mode of occurrence of uranium ore deposits. The second is to improve existing exploration techniques and instrumentation while, at the same time, promoting research and development on new methods to discover uranium ore bodies on the earth's surface and at depth. The present symposium is an effort to increase co-operation and the exchange of information in the critical field of uranium exploration techniques and instrumentation. As an introduction to the symposium a brief review is presented, firstly of what can be considered as existing techniques and, secondly, of techniques which have not yet been used on an appreciable scale. Some fourteen techniques used over the last 30 years are identified and their appropriate application, advantages and limitations are briefly summarized and the possibilities of their further development considered. The aim of future research on new techniques, in addition to finding new ways and means of identifying surface deposits, should be mainly directed to devising methods and instrumentation capable of detecting buried ore bodies that do not give a gamma signal at the surface. To achieve this aim, two contributory factors are essential: adequate financial support for research and development and increased specialized training in uranium exploration and instrumentation design. The papers in this symposium describe developments in the existing techniques, proposals for future research and development and case histories of exploration programmes

Anticipating data artifacts for future archeologists

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Markham, Annette

toward research as an intervention of future making? A ‘reflexive anticipation’ epistemology fosters experimental research design that intervenes as it explores possible trajectories. This framework is based in ongoing experiments training youth to be critical auto-phenomenologists of social media...

Molecular series-tunneling junctions.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Kung-Ching; Hsu, Liang-Yan; Bowers, Carleen M; Rabitz, Herschel; Whitesides, George M

2015-05-13

Charge transport through junctions consisting of insulating molecular units is a quantum phenomenon that cannot be described adequately by classical circuit laws. This paper explores tunneling current densities in self-assembled monolayer (SAM)-based junctions with the structure Ag(TS)/O2C-R1-R2-H//Ga2O3/EGaIn, where Ag(TS) is template-stripped silver and EGaIn is the eutectic alloy of gallium and indium; R1 and R2 refer to two classes of insulating molecular units-(CH2)n and (C6H4)m-that are connected in series and have different tunneling decay constants in the Simmons equation. These junctions can be analyzed as a form of series-tunneling junctions based on the observation that permuting the order of R1 and R2 in the junction does not alter the overall rate of charge transport. By using the Ag/O2C interface, this system decouples the highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO, which is localized on the carboxylate group) from strong interactions with the R1 and R2 units. The differences in rates of tunneling are thus determined by the electronic structure of the groups R1 and R2; these differences are not influenced by the order of R1 and R2 in the SAM. In an electrical potential model that rationalizes this observation, R1 and R2 contribute independently to the height of the barrier. This model explicitly assumes that contributions to rates of tunneling from the Ag(TS)/O2C and H//Ga2O3 interfaces are constant across the series examined. The current density of these series-tunneling junctions can be described by J(V) = J0(V) exp(-β1d1 - β2d2), where J(V) is the current density (A/cm(2)) at applied voltage V and βi and di are the parameters describing the attenuation of the tunneling current through a rectangular tunneling barrier, with width d and a height related to the attenuation factor β.

The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures prices of natural gas

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yahui; Liu, Li

2018-01-01

The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures markets are of great interest for academics. Previous studies neglect the possibility of nonlinear behaviors which may be caused by asymmetry or persistence. To fill this gap, this paper uses the MF-DCCA method and the linear and nonlinear causality tests to explore the causal relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices in the New York Mercantile Exchange. We find that spot and futures prices are positive cross-correlated, the natural gas futures can linearly Granger cause spot price, and there are bidirectional nonlinear causality relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices. Further, we explore the sources of nonlinear causality relationships, and find that the volatility spillover can partly explain the nonlinear causality and affect their cross-correlations.

Time-series modeling: applications to long-term finfish monitoring data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bireley, L.E.

1985-01-01

The growing concern and awareness that developed during the 1970's over the effects that industry had on the environment caused the electric utility industry in particular to develop monitoring programs. These programs generate long-term series of data that are not very amenable to classical normal-theory statistical analysis. The monitoring data collected from three finfish programs (impingement, trawl and seine) at the Millstone Nuclear Power Station were typical of such series and thus were used to develop methodology that used the full extent of the information in the series. The basis of the methodology was classic Box-Jenkins time-series modeling; however, the models also included deterministic components that involved flow, season and time as predictor variables. Time entered into the models as harmonic regression terms. Of the 32 models fitted to finfish catch data, 19 were found to account for more than 70% of the historical variation. The models were than used to forecast finfish catches a year in advance and comparisons were made to actual data. Usually the confidence intervals associated with the forecasts encompassed most of the observed data. The technique can provide the basis for intervention analysis in future impact assessments

Long-run industry performance in exploration outside North America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bee, A.C.

1991-01-01

Exploration success in the oil and gas business over the long term has not followed a sufficiently consistent pattern to predict the future with any degree of comfort. The study of past industry performance, however, has an important bearing on the future exploration activity. Nationalization of a large part of the major companies' producing assets in the 1970s and 1980s proved to be a turning point for many industry trends, including global finding rates. Supported by a buoyant oil price, the industry moved to explore in the more remote, hostile, and costly environments. This technologically improving exploration is rapidly eating into the accessible acreage. Larger fields are becoming scarcer, and competition to access the most prospective areas is fierce. To meet the anticipated demand for oil and gas, the industry must be increasingly successful in finding large volumes to replace declining reserves from existing giant fields. The successful explorer will not only be measured by annual finding volumes and costs, but also by long-term value creation, which has taken as long as 30-40 years to achieve in any one basin

Exploration Technology Program plans and directions

Science.gov (United States)

Aldrich, A.; Rosen, R.; Craig, M.; Mankins, J. C.

During the first part of the next century, the United States will return to the Moon to create a permanent lunar base, and, before the year 2019, we will send a human mission to Mars. In addition to these human operations, the Space Exploration Initiative will integrally incorporate robotic lunar and Mars missions. In achieving these efforts to expand human presence and activity in space and also exerted and frontiers of human knowledge, the SEI will require an array of new technologies. Mission architecture definition is still underway, but previous studies indicate that the SEI will require developments in areas such as advanced engines for space transportation, in-space assembly and construction to support permanent basing of exploration systems in space, and advanced surface operations capabilities including adequate levels of power and surface roving vehicles, and technologies to support safely long-duration human operations in space. Plans are now being put into place to implement an Exploration Technology Program (ETP) which will develop the major technologies needed for SEI. In close coordination with other ongoing U.S. government research and development efforts, the ETP will provide in the near term clear demonstrations of potential exploration technologies, research results to support SEI architecture decisions, and a foundation of mature technology that is ready to be applied in the first round of SEI missions. In addition to the technology needed for the first round of SEI missions, the ETP will also put in place a foundation of research for longer-term technology needs—ultimately leading the human missions to Mars. The Space Exploration Initiative and the Exploration Technology Program will challenge the best and the brightest minds across government, industry and academia, inspiring students of all ages and making possible future terrestial applications of SEI technologies that may create whole new industries for the future.

New Age for Lunar Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, G. J.; Martel, L. M. V.

2018-04-01

Lunar-focused research and plans to return to the lunar surface for science and exploration have reemerged since the Space Policy Directive-1 of December 11, 2017 amended the National Space Policy to include the following, "Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations." In response to this revision, NASA proposes a Lunar Exploration and Discovery Program in the U.S. fiscal year 2019 Budget Request. It supports NASA's interests in commercial and international partnerships in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO), long-term exploration in Cislunar space beyond LEO, and research and exploration conducted on the Moon to inform future crewed missions, even to destinations beyond the Moon. (Cislunar refers to the volume of space between LEO and the Moon's orbital distance.) The lunar campaign strengthens the integration of human and robotic activities on the lunar surface with NASA's science, technology, and exploration goals.

Quartet cards as the media of career exploration for lower-grade primary school students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yulia Ayriza

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A career developed through the optimization of one’s potentials will irrevocably play a role in the development of self-identity as well as the psychological well-being of the individual. When children are introduced and allowed to explore as many career options as possible during their developmental stage, they are more likely to have a fruitful career development in the future. The preceding study showed that the career interests and knowledge of lower-grade primary students fit the Holland Career Categories: realistic, investigative, artistic, social, enterprising, and conventional (RIASEC. It was also found that the students’ career interest and knowledge levels varied, with most in the low level. This second-year study aims to expand the results of the previous study by developing the use of Quartet cards as the media of career exploration for lower-grade primary students. By using the research and development method, this study develops Quartet Career Cards into three difficulty levels: low, medium, and high. The Quartet cards media have undergone feasibility tests conducted by experts in theory and media, as well as a series of field testing consisting of preliminary, main, and operational stages among a total of 266 primary students of grades 1, 2, and 3. A revision was made on several components including the images, information, colors, font sizes, illustration styles, and card sizes. The findings show that Quartet Career Cards meet the feasibility standards for the media of career exploration

Cutting-edge research in developing the library of the future new paths for building future services

CERN Document Server

Eden, Bradford Lee

2015-01-01

Cutting-Edge Research in the 21st-Century Academic Library: New Paths for Building Future Services explores examples of exciting new library services and workflows and provides opportunities for the rest of the library profession to model and adapt for their own communities and patrons.

Exploring the implication of climate process uncertainties within the Earth System Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, B.; Lambert, F. H.; McNeal, D.; Harris, G.; Sexton, D.; Boulton, C.; Murphy, J.

2011-12-01

Uncertainties in the magnitude of future climate change have been a focus of a great deal of research. Much of the work with General Circulation Models has focused on the atmospheric response to changes in atmospheric composition, while other processes remain outside these frameworks. Here we introduce an ensemble of new simulations, based on an Earth System configuration of HadCM3C, designed to explored uncertainties in both physical (atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol physics) and carbon cycle processes, using perturbed parameter approaches previously used to explore atmospheric uncertainty. Framed in the context of the climate response to future changes in emissions, the resultant future projections represent significantly broader uncertainty than existing concentration driven GCM assessments. The systematic nature of the ensemble design enables interactions between components to be explored. For example, we show how metrics of physical processes (such as climate sensitivity) are also influenced carbon cycle parameters. The suggestion from this work is that carbon cycle processes represent a comparable contribution to uncertainty in future climate projections as contributions from atmospheric feedbacks more conventionally explored. The broad range of climate responses explored within these ensembles, rather than representing a reason for inaction, provide information on lower likelihood but high impact changes. For example while the majority of these simulations suggest that future Amazon forest extent is resilient to the projected climate changes, a small number simulate dramatic forest dieback. This ensemble represents a framework to examine these risks, breaking them down into physical processes (such as ocean temperature drivers of rainfall change) and vegetation processes (where uncertainties point towards requirements for new observational constraints).

Lithological and petrophysical properties and prospects of oil and gas presence of Kalinsky series in Absheron

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kheirov, M.B; Dilbazi, Z.H; Askerov, F.H; Imanov, A.D.

2002-01-01

Full text:The presentation is is dedicated to summarizing the results of studying lithological and petrographic peculiarities and petrophysical properties of relatively scarcely studied rocks of lower Pliocene Kalinsky Series in Absheron, particularly its lower horizons, as well as to determining the regularities of these properties change about the area, as well as along the geological section. These generalisation cover the areas of Gala, Turkany, Gala-Dubendy, Govsany, Garachukhur, Bina, Zykh, Peschany island, Chilov, Khali, Gryazevaya sopka, Pirallakhy, and they are necessary for determining the direction of exploration and increasing the efficiency of productive horizons development. Kalinsky series is represented mostly by the alternation of siltstones, sandstones and shale and subjected to lithofacial changes along the section and about the area. In the reservoir sections studied Kalinsky series is mostly of polymetallic composition and is represented by badly sorted rocks. The sorting coefficient is within the range 2.5-4.7. Sands and sandstones occur relatively seldom. Thus, Kalinsky series, and its lower horizons in particular are scarcely studied. In some areas these horizons in particular are scarcely studied. In some areas horizons are not exposed. That is why for the purpose of oil and gas presence degree clarification it is necessary to resume exploration in Absheron oil and gas bearing region Kalinsky series, and in particular in its lower horizons

Virtual reality and planetary exploration

Science.gov (United States)

McGreevy, Michael W.

Exploring planetary environments is central to NASA's missions and goals. A new computing technology called Virtual Reality has much to offer in support of planetary exploration. This technology augments and extends human presence within computer-generated and remote spatial environments. Historically, NASA has been a leader in many of the fundamental concepts and technologies that comprise Virtual Reality. Indeed, Ames Research Center has a central role in the development of this rapidly emerging approach to using computers. This ground breaking work has inspired researchers in academia, industry, and the military. Further, NASA's leadership in this technology has spun off new businesses, has caught the attention of the international business community, and has generated several years of positive international media coverage. In the future, Virtual Reality technology will enable greatly improved human-machine interactions for more productive planetary surface exploration. Perhaps more importantly, Virtual Reality technology will democratize the experience of planetary exploration and thereby broaden understanding of, and support for, this historic enterprise.

Virtual reality and planetary exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Mcgreevy, Michael W.

1992-01-01

Exploring planetary environments is central to NASA's missions and goals. A new computing technology called Virtual Reality has much to offer in support of planetary exploration. This technology augments and extends human presence within computer-generated and remote spatial environments. Historically, NASA has been a leader in many of the fundamental concepts and technologies that comprise Virtual Reality. Indeed, Ames Research Center has a central role in the development of this rapidly emerging approach to using computers. This ground breaking work has inspired researchers in academia, industry, and the military. Further, NASA's leadership in this technology has spun off new businesses, has caught the attention of the international business community, and has generated several years of positive international media coverage. In the future, Virtual Reality technology will enable greatly improved human-machine interactions for more productive planetary surface exploration. Perhaps more importantly, Virtual Reality technology will democratize the experience of planetary exploration and thereby broaden understanding of, and support for, this historic enterprise.

United States Human Access to Space, Exploration of the Moon and Preparation for Mars Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.

2009-01-01

In the past, men like Leonardo da Vinci and Jules Verne imagined the future and envisioned fantastic inventions such as winged flying machines, submarines, and parachutes, and posited human adventures like transoceanic flight and journeys to the Moon. Today, many of their ideas are reality and form the basis for our modern world. While individual visionaries like da Vinci and Verne are remembered for the accuracy of their predictions, today entire nations are involved in the process of envisioning and defining the future development of mankind, both on and beyond the Earth itself. Recently, Russian, European, and Chinese teams have all announced plans for developing their own next generation human space vehicles. The Chinese have announced their intention to conduct human lunar exploration, and have flown three crewed space missions since 2003, including a flight with three crew members to test their extravehicular (spacewalking) capabilities in September 2008. Very soon, the prestige, economic development, scientific discovery, and strategic security advantage historically associated with leadership in space exploration and exploitation may no longer be the undisputed province of the United States. Much like the sponsors of the seafaring explorers of da Vinci's age, we are motivated by the opportunity to obtain new knowledge and new resources for the growth and development of our own civilization. NASA's new Constellation Program, established in 2005, is tasked with maintaining the United States leadership in space, exploring the Moon, creating a sustained human lunar presence, and eventually extending human operations to Mars and beyond. Through 2008, the Constellation Program developed a full set of detailed program requirements and is now completing the preliminary design phase for the new Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle, and the associated infrastructure necessary for humans to explore the Moon. Component testing is well

Scenarios to explore the futures of the emerging technology of organic and large area electronics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Parandian, Alireza; Rip, Arie

2013-01-01

Emerging technologies pose challenges for futures research because of their uncertainties combined with promises. Actors are anticipating and acting strategically. Sociotechnical scenarios building on endogenous futures support and enlighten actors. Such scenarios contribute to “strategic

Future Time Perspective in Sociocultural Contexts: A Discussion Paper

Science.gov (United States)

Phan, Huy P.

2009-01-01

Future time perspective (FTP) serves as a strong motivational force for individuals to engage in activities that may be instrumental in future outcomes. There has been a voluminous body of research studies, to date, that explored the importance of FTP. This article discusses FTP from sociocultural perspectives. Based on previous empirical…

Popular Imagination and Identity Politics: Reading the Future in "Star Trek: The Next Generation."

Science.gov (United States)

Ott, Brian L.; Aoki, Eric

2001-01-01

Analyzes the television series "Star Trek: The Next Generation." Theorizes the relationship between collective visions of the future and the identity politics of the present. Argues that "The Next Generation" invites audiences to participate in a shared sense of the future that constrains human agency and (re)produces the…

Linking the Negative Binomial and Logarithmic Series Distributions via their Associated Series

OpenAIRE

SADINLE, MAURICIO

2008-01-01

The negative binomial distribution is associated to the series obtained by taking derivatives of the logarithmic series. Conversely, the logarithmic series distribution is associated to the series found by integrating the series associated to the negative binomial distribution. The parameter of the number of failures of the negative binomial distribution is the number of derivatives needed to obtain the negative binomial series from the logarithmic series. The reasoning in this article could ...

Reference Mission Version 3.0 Addendum to the Human Exploration of Mars: The Reference Mission of the NASA Mars Exploration Study Team. Addendum; 3.0

Science.gov (United States)

Drake, Bret G. (Editor)

1998-01-01

This Addendum to the Mars Reference Mission was developed as a companion document to the NASA Special Publication 6107, "Human Exploration of Mars: The Reference Mission of the NASA Mars Exploration Study Team." It summarizes changes and updates to the Mars Reference Missions that were developed by the Exploration Office since the final draft of SP 6107 was printed in early 1999. The Reference Mission is a tool used by the exploration community to compare and evaluate approaches to mission and system concepts that could be used for human missions to Mars. It is intended to identify and clarify system drivers, significant sources of cost, performance, risk, and schedule variation. Several alternative scenarios, employing different technical approaches to solving mission and technology challenges, are discussed in this Addendum. Comparing alternative approaches provides the basis for continual improvement to technology investment plan and a general understanding of future human missions to Mars. The Addendum represents a snapshot of work in progress in support of planning for future human exploration missions through May 1998.

Impact of a future H

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Popa, M.E.; Segers, A.J.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Krol, M.C.; Visschedijk, A.J.H.; Schaap, M.; Röckmann, T.

2015-01-01

Hydrogen (H2) is being explored as a fuel for passenger vehicles; it can be used in fuel cells to power electric motors or burned in internal combustion engines. In order to evaluate the potential influence of a future H2-based road transportation on the regional air quality in Europe, we

Comparisons between two wavelet functions in extracting coherent structures from solar wind time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bolzani, M.J.A.; Guarnieri, F.L.; Vieira, Paulo Cesar

2009-01-01

Nowadays, wavelet analysis of turbulent flows have become increasingly popular. However, the study of geometric characteristics from wavelet functions is still poorly explored. In this work we compare the performance of two wavelet functions in extracting the coherent structures from solar wind velocity time series. The data series are from years 1996 to 2002 (except 1998 and 1999). The wavelet algorithm decomposes the annual time-series in two components: the coherent part and non-coherent one, using the daubechies-4 and haar wavelet function. The threshold assumed is based on a percentage of maximum variance found in each dyadic scale. After the extracting procedure, we applied the power spectral density on the original time series and coherent time series to obtain spectral indices. The results from spectral indices show higher values for the coherent part obtained by daubechies-4 than those obtained by the haar wavelet function. Using the kurtosis statistical parameter, on coherent and non-coherent time series, it was possible to conjecture that the differences found between two wavelet functions may be associated with their geometric forms. (author)

Report on Future Education Symposium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janani Harish

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Higher education has continuously evolved in its purpose and methods. As the demands on education have become increasingly complex today, it becomes essential to determine the needs of the future, and evolve a system of education that equips youth to face the challenges that the 21st century will bring, and scale its yet unseen peaks. The following paper draws its inspiration from the recent WAAS-WUC course on ‘Future Education’ in Dubrovnik, Croatia that sought to explore key issues in teaching and learning, and the means for ushering in a new paradigm in education.

MoRM and Future Memories

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rehder, Mads Middelboe; Ostrowski, Kasper

2017-01-01

for the experimental workshop we lunged into a process of devising both an interactive exhibition and an installation which explored the ‘big data’ citizens regularly produce in their everyday lives and how this data might be archived, packaged, and recycled - or even forgotten, primarily within social media. We...... wanted to explore what our daily routines connected to social media and sorting our data meant for the way we shape our memories, and therefore the traces of future memories. In this chapter we follow the trajectory of the exhibition entitled ‘MoRM’ (Museum of Random Memories)....

Time Series Data Analysis of Wireless Sensor Network Measurements of Temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhandari, Siddhartha; Bergmann, Neil; Jurdak, Raja; Kusy, Branislav

2017-05-26

Wireless sensor networks have gained significant traction in environmental signal monitoring and analysis. The cost or lifetime of the system typically depends on the frequency at which environmental phenomena are monitored. If sampling rates are reduced, energy is saved. Using empirical datasets collected from environmental monitoring sensor networks, this work performs time series analyses of measured temperature time series. Unlike previous works which have concentrated on suppressing the transmission of some data samples by time-series analysis but still maintaining high sampling rates, this work investigates reducing the sampling rate (and sensor wake up rate) and looks at the effects on accuracy. Results show that the sampling period of the sensor can be increased up to one hour while still allowing intermediate and future states to be estimated with interpolation RMSE less than 0.2 °C and forecasting RMSE less than 1 °C.

Sensor Array Analyzer for Planetary Exploration, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Future planetary exploration missions such as those planned by NASA and other space agencies over the next few decades require advanced chemical and biological...

Ratio-based lengths of intervals to improve fuzzy time series forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Huarng, Kunhuang; Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang

2006-04-01

The objective of this study is to explore ways of determining the useful lengths of intervals in fuzzy time series. It is suggested that ratios, instead of equal lengths of intervals, can more properly represent the intervals among observations. Ratio-based lengths of intervals are, therefore, proposed to improve fuzzy time series forecasting. Algebraic growth data, such as enrollments and the stock index, and exponential growth data, such as inventory demand, are chosen as the forecasting targets, before forecasting based on the various lengths of intervals is performed. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses are also carried out for various percentiles. The ratio-based lengths of intervals are found to outperform the effective lengths of intervals, as well as the arbitrary ones in regard to the different statistical measures. The empirical analysis suggests that the ratio-based lengths of intervals can also be used to improve fuzzy time series forecasting.

Magnetic Field Emission Comparison for Series-Parallel and Series-Series Wireless Power Transfer to Vehicles – PART 1/2

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Batra, Tushar; Schaltz, Erik

2014-01-01

Resonant circuits of wireless power transfer system can be designed in four possible ways by placing the primary and secondary capacitor in a series or parallel order with respect to the corresponding inductor. The two topologies series-parallel and series-series under investigation have been...... already compared in terms of their output behavior (current or voltage source) and reflection of the secondary impedance on the primary side. In this paper it is shown that for the same power rating series-parallel topology emits lesser magnetic fields to the surroundings than its series...

The Future of Our Tropical Rainforests. Our Only Earth Series. A Curriculum for Global Problem Solving.

Science.gov (United States)

McKisson, Micki; MacRae-Campbell, Linda

Both humanity and nature have suffered greatly from human insensitivity. Not only are the natural resources of the earth being depleted and its air, land and water polluted, the financial resources of humanity are being wasted on destructive expenditures. The "Our Only Earth" series is an integrated science, language arts, and social…

Future directions for QCD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjorken, J.D.

1996-10-01

New directions for exploring QCD at future high-energy colliders are sketched. These include jets within jets. BFKL dynamics, soft and hard diffraction, searches for disoriented chiral condensate, and doing a better job on minimum bias physics. The new experimental opportunities include electron-ion collisions at HERA, a new collider detector at the C0 region of the TeVatron, and the FELIX initiative at the LHC

Stem cells and the future of regenerative medicine

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

National Research Council, Committee on the Biological and Biomedical Applications of Stem Cell Research; Commission on Life Sciences; National Research Council; Board on Life Sciences; Board on Neuroscience and Behavioral Health; Division on Earth and Life Studies; Institute of Medicine

2002-01-01

.... Stem Cells and the Future of Regenerative Medicine provides a deeper exploration of the biological, ethical, and funding questions prompted by the therapeutic potential of undifferentiated human cells...

Reducing Future International Chemical and Biological Dangers.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haddal, Chad [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bull, Diana L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hernandez, Patricia Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Foley, John T. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-12-01

The International Biological and Chemical Threat Reduction Program at Sandia National Laboratories is developing a 15 - year technology road map in support the United States Government efforts to reduce international chemical and biological dangers . In 2017, the program leadership chartered an analysis team to explore dangers in the future international chemical and biological landscape through engagements with national security experts within and beyond Sandia to gain a multidisciplinary perspective on the future . This report offers a hi gh level landscape of future chemical and biological dangers based upon analysis of those engagements and provides support for further technology road map development.

The futures of climate engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Low, Sean

2017-01-01

This piece examines the need to interrogate the role of the conceptions of the future, as embedded in academic papers, policy documents, climate models, and other artifacts that serve as currencies of the science-society interface, in shaping scientific and policy agendas in climate engineering. Growing bodies of work on framings, metaphors, and models in the past decade serve as valuable starting points, but can benefit from integration with science and technology studies work on the sociology of expectations, imaginaries, and visions. Potentially valuable branches of work to come might be the anticipatory use of the future: the design of experimental spaces for exploring the future of an engineered climate in service of responsible research and innovation, and the integration of this work within the unfolding context of the Paris Agreement.

The Exploration of Mars and the Improvement of Living Conditions in Western Asian Countries

Science.gov (United States)

De Morais Mendonca Teles, Antonio

2016-07-01

Space is the new frontier. The exploration of a new world, Mars, has been giving people on Earth valuable comparative information about climatic and geological processes occurring here on our home planet. With the Viking 1 and 2, Mars Global Surveyor, Mars Odyssey, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, Sojourner, Spirit, Opportunity, Curiosity, etc., spacecrafts, which explored the Red Planet we obtained a great deal information about the extremely arid soil and dry air of Mars in the present, and its watery condition in the distant past. Now there is a decade-long, program of robotic exploration of the martian atmosphere and soil - the 'Mars Surveyor Program', which is a series of small, cheap and fast spacecrafts, carrying very few scientific instruments, to be launched about every two years. Here in this paper, under the principles in the United Nations' Agenda 21, we comment on this new phase of Mars exploration under development, which began in 1996, and its benefits to living conditions in developing countries with desert regions. A peaceful regular research of the arid Mars, will help us to understand much better the dynamics of formation of dry regions here on Earth. We suggest that, if the developing countries participate in that program, they will achieve the scientific understanding to create a practical technology, with which they will acquire ways to future transform their arid areas into a more humid places, and to slow the process of desertification of other regions. This, using their own natural resources and own scientific personnel. That would strongly benefit the living conditions in Western Asian countries, which have many desert regions.

Summation of series

CERN Document Server

Jolley, LB W

2004-01-01

Over 1,100 common series, all grouped for easy reference. Arranged by category, these series include arithmetical and geometrical progressions, powers and products of natural numbers, figurate and polygonal numbers, inverse natural numbers, exponential and logarithmic series, binomials, simple inverse products, factorials, trigonometrical and hyperbolic expansions, and additional series. 1961 edition.

Impact of a future H

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Popa, M.E.; Segers, A.J.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Krol, M.C.; Visschedijk, A.J.H.; Schaap, M.; Röckmann, T.

2015-01-01

Hydrogen (H₂) is being explored as a fuel for passenger vehicles; it can be used in fuel cells to power electric motors or burned in internal combustion engines. In order to evaluate the potential influence of a future H₂-based road transportation on the regional air quality

Advanced Exploration Systems Water Architecture Study Interim Results

Science.gov (United States)

Sargusingh, Miriam J.

2013-01-01

The mission of the Advanced Exploration System (AES) Water Recovery Project (WRP) is to develop advanced water recovery systems that enable NASA human exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). The primary objective of the AES WRP is to develop water recovery technologies critical to near-term missions beyond LEO. The secondary objective is to continue to advance mid-readiness-level technologies to support future NASA missions. An effort is being undertaken to establish the architecture for the AES Water Recovery System (WRS) that meets both near- and long-term objectives. The resultant architecture will be used to guide future technical planning, establish a baseline development roadmap for technology infusion, and establish baseline assumptions for integrated ground and on-orbit Environmental Control and Life Support Systems definition. This study is being performed in three phases. Phase I established the scope of the study through definition of the mission requirements and constraints, as well as identifying all possible WRS configurations that meet the mission requirements. Phase II focused on the near-term space exploration objectives by establishing an International Space Station-derived reference schematic for long-duration (>180 day) in-space habitation. Phase III will focus on the long-term space exploration objectives, trading the viable WRS configurations identified in Phase I to identify the ideal exploration WRS. The results of Phases I and II are discussed in this paper.

Exploring intentions to discriminate against patients living with HIV/AIDS among future healthcare providers in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Earnshaw, Valerie A; Jin, Harry; Wickersham, Jeffrey; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; John, Jacob; Altice, Frederick L

2014-06-01

Stigma towards people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) is strong in Malaysia. Although stigma has been understudied, it may be a barrier to treating the approximately 81 000 Malaysian PLWHA. The current study explores correlates of intentions to discriminate against PLWHA among medical and dental students, the future healthcare providers of Malaysia. An online, cross-sectional survey of 1296 medical and dental students was conducted in 2012 at seven Malaysian universities; 1165 (89.9%) completed the survey and were analysed. Socio-demographic characteristics, stigma-related constructs and intentions to discriminate against PLWHA were measured. Linear mixed models were conducted, controlling for clustering by university. The final multivariate model demonstrated that students who intended to discriminate more against PLWHA were female, less advanced in their training, and studying dentistry. They further endorsed more negative attitudes towards PLWHA, internalised greater HIV-related shame, reported more HIV-related fear and disagreed more strongly that PLWHA deserve good care. The final model accounted for 38% of the variance in discrimination intent, with 10% accounted for by socio-demographic characteristics and 28% accounted for by stigma-related constructs. It is critical to reduce stigma among medical and dental students to eliminate intentions to discriminate and achieve equitable care for Malaysian PLWHA. Stigma-reduction interventions should be multipronged, addressing attitudes, internalised shame, fear and perceptions of deservingness of care. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Domestic uranium exploration activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chenoweth, W.L.

1980-01-01

Uranium exploration in the United States reached its alltime high in 1978 when the chief exploration indicator, surface drilling, totaled 47 million feet. In 1979, however, total drilling declined to 41 million feet, and during the first 8 months of 1980 the trend continued, as surface drilling was 27% less than for the same period in 1979. The total drilling for 1980 now is expected to be below 30 million feet, far less than the 39.4 million feet planned by industry at the beginning of the year. Falling uranium prices, the uncertainties of future uranium demand, rising costs, and the possibility of stiff foreign competition are the prime causes for the current reduction in domestic uranium exploration. Uranium exploration in the United States continues to be concentrated in the vicinity of major producing areas such as the San Juan Basin, Wyoming Basins, Texas Coastal Plain, Paradox Basin, and northeastern Washington, and in areas of recent discoveries including the Henry Mountains, Utah, the McDermitt caldera in Nevada and Oregon, and central Colorado. The distributions, by location, of total surface drilling for 1979 and the first half of 1980 are presented

Workshop on Future Generation Grids

CERN Document Server

Laforenza, Domenico; Reinefeld, Alexander

2006-01-01

The Internet and the Web continue to have a major impact on society. By allowing us to discover and access information on a global scale, they have created entirely new businesses and brought new meaning to the term surf. In addition, however, we want processing, and increasingly, we want collaborative processing within distributed teams. This need has led to the creation of the Grid - an infrastructure that enables us to share capabilities, and integrate services and resources within and across enterprises. "Future Generation Grids" is the second in the "CoreGRID" series. This edited volume brings together contributed articles by scientists and researchers in the Grid community in an attempt to draw a clearer picture of the future generation Grids. This book also identifies some of the most challenging problems on the way to achieving the invisible Grid ideas

Future Directions in Ultraviolet Spectroscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Sonneborn, George (Editor); Moos, Warren; VanSteenberg, Michael

2009-01-01

The 'Future Directions in Ultraviolet Spectroscopy' conference was inspired by the accomplishments of the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) Mission. The FUSE mission was launched in June 1999 and spent over eight years exploring the far-ultraviolet universe, gathering over 64 million seconds of high-resolution spectral data on nearly 3000 astronomical targets. The goal of this conference was not only to celebrate the accomplishments of FUSE, but to look toward the future and understand the major scientific drivers for the ultraviolet capabilities of the next generation fo space observatories. Invited speakers presented discussions based on measurements made by FUSE and other ultraviolet instruments, assessed their connection with measurements made with other techniques and, where appropriate, discussed the implications of low-z measurements for high-z phenomena. In addition to the oral presentations, many participants presented poster papers. The breadth of these presentation made it clear that much good science is still in progress with FUSE data and that these result will continue to have relevance in many scientific areas.

NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations: Science Operations Development for Human Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Mary S.

2014-01-01

The purpose of NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO) mission 16 in 2012 was to evaluate and compare the performance of a defined series of representative near-Earth asteroid (NEA) extravehicular activity (EVA) tasks under different conditions and combinations of work systems, constraints, and assumptions considered for future human NEA exploration missions. NEEMO 16 followed NASA's 2011 Desert Research and Technology Studies (D-RATS), the primary focus of which was understanding the implications of communication latency, crew size, and work system combinations with respect to scientific data quality, data management, crew workload, and crew/mission control interactions. The 1-g environment precluded meaningful evaluation of NEA EVA translation, worksite stabilization, sampling, or instrument deployment techniques. Thus, NEEMO missions were designed to provide an opportunity to perform a preliminary evaluation of these important factors for each of the conditions being considered. NEEMO 15 also took place in 2011 and provided a first look at many of the factors, but the mission was cut short due to a hurricane threat before all objectives were completed. ARES Directorate (KX) personnel consulted with JSC engineers to ensure that high-fidelity planetary science protocols were incorporated into NEEMO mission architectures. ARES has been collaborating with NEEMO mission planners since NEEMO 9 in 2006, successively building upon previous developments to refine science operations concepts within engineering constraints; it is expected to continue the collaboration as NASA's human exploration mission plans evolve.

Exploring the Market for Breakthrough Technologies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ortt, J. Roland; Langley, David J.; Pals, Nico

In this article, the gap between futures research (long term) and market research (short term) is closed in two ways. Firstly, by describing methods of market exploration that can be used earlier on in the process of development and diffusion of breakthrough technologies, so market research can be

Exploring the Market for Breakthrough Technologies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ortt, J. Roland; Langley, David J.; Pals, Nico

2007-01-01

In this article, the gap between futures research (long term) and market research (short term) is closed in two ways. Firstly, by describing methods of market exploration that can be used earlier on in the process of development and diffusion of breakthrough technologies, so market research can be

Strategies For Human Exploration Leading To Human Colonization of Space

Science.gov (United States)

Smitherman, David; Everett, Harmon

2009-01-01

Enabling the commercial development of space is key to the future colonization of space and key to a viable space exploration program. Without commercial development following in the footsteps of exploration it is difficult to justify and maintain public interest in the efforts. NASA's exploration program has suffered from the lack of a good commercial economic strategy for decades. Only small advances in commercial space have moved forward, and only up to Earth orbit with the commercial satellite industry. A way to move beyond this phase is to begin the establishment of human commercial activities in space in partnership with the human exploration program. In 2007 and 2008, the authors researched scenarios to make space exploration and commercial space development more feasible as part of their graduate work in the Space Architecture Program at the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture at the University of Houston, Houston, Texas. Through this research it became apparent that the problems facing future colonization are much larger than the technology being developed or the international missions that our space agencies are pursuing. These issues are addressed in this paper with recommendations for space exploration, commercial development, and space policy that are needed to form a strategic plan for human expansion into space. In conclusion, the authors found that the current direction in space as carried out by our space agencies around the world is definitely needed, but is inadequate and incapable of resolving all of the issues that inhibit commercial space development. A bolder vision with strategic planning designed to grow infrastructures and set up a legal framework for commercial markets will go a long way toward enabling the future colonization of space.

Uranium exploration expenditures in 1976 and plans for 1977--78

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1977-05-01

A survey of actual and planned uranium exploration activities was made by the Grand Junction Office of the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration as part of an overall program to evaluate future supplies of nuclear fuel. The survey covered: land acquired in 1976 for exploration and cost of acquisition; 1976 surface drilling footage and cost; all other exploration expenditures in 1976; estimates of 1977-78 exploration activities and costs; exploration for non-sandstone deposits; exploration in non-established areas; foreign uranium exploration expenditures by U.S. companies; foreign participation in exploration activities in the United States; aerial radiometric exploration activities in the United States, 1972-76; and solution-mining production drilling during 1976. Data from the replies of 108 companies are compiled

Astrobiology, space and the future age of discovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Blumberg, Baruch S

2011-02-13

Astrobiology is the study of the origins, evolution, distribution and future of life in the Universe, and specifically seeks to understand the origin of life and to test the hypothesis that life exists elsewhere than on Earth. There is a general mathematics, physics and chemistry; that is, scientific laws that obtain on Earth also do so elsewhere. Is there a general biology? Is the Universe life-rich or is Earth an isolated island of biology? Exploration in the Age of Enlightenment required the collection of data in unexplored regions and the use of induction and empiricism to derive models and natural laws. The current search for extra-terrestrial life has a similar goal, but with a much greater amount of data and with computers to help with management, correlations, pattern recognition and analysis. There are 60 active space missions, many of them aiding in the search for life. There is not a universally accepted definition of life, but there are a series of characteristics that can aid in the identification of life elsewhere. The study of locations on Earth with similarities to early Mars and other space objects could provide a model that can be used in the search for extra-terrestrial life.

EXPLORING THE FACTORS AFFECTING EMPLOYEES’ ADOPTION AND USE OF INNOVATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Majharul Talukder

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the factors affecting innovation adoption by individual employees within an organization in Australia. Following a qualitative research approach, this paper uses a series of in-depth interviews and focus group discussions involving academic and administrative employees at a tertiary educational institution in Australia. The qualitative approach is adopted to have a deeper insight into the complexities and dynamism associated with the factors influencing innovation adoption process in organizational settings. The findings of this research highlight the need for broadening an understanding of the key factors affecting employee’s decisions to uptake the adoption of innovation. The results provide important clues for comprehending the factors influencing and determining the employee’s adoption and continued use of innovation in the work environment. In the face of the current trend towards end-user applications of technological innovation, the results suggest some guidelines for management toward effective and efficient adoption and use of innovation in organizational settings. This paper has highlighted the above findings and their implications for management practices related to innovation management in an Australian organizational setting. This paper also identifies possible limitations and future research potential in the relevant field.

Competition for petroleum exploration capital in the Asia-Pacific region - implications for New Zealand and Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, A.

1995-01-01

This paper examines the future energy production and demand profiles for the Asia Pacific region and the global allocation of exploration capital made by major international petroleum companies. The implications of these factors for future government petroleum exploration policies within the region are considered, in particular the Australian and New Zealand situations, together with likely effects of such measures on the ability of exploration and production companies to raise capital. (Author)

Modular Power Standard for Space Explorations Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Oeftering, Richard C.; Gardner, Brent G.

2016-01-01

Future human space exploration will most likely be composed of assemblies of multiple modular spacecraft elements with interconnected electrical power systems. An electrical system composed of a standardized set modular building blocks provides significant development, integration, and operational cost advantages. The modular approach can also provide the flexibility to configure power systems to meet the mission needs. A primary goal of the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Modular Power System (AMPS) project is to establish a Modular Power Standard that is needed to realize these benefits. This paper is intended to give the space exploration community a "first look" at the evolving Modular Power Standard and invite their comments and technical contributions.

Exploring knowledge, perceptions and attitudes about generic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Exploring knowledge, perceptions and attitudes about generic medicines among final-year health science students. ... had knowledge deficits about the safety, quality and efficacy of generic medicines. The dissemination of information about generic medicines may strengthen future knowledge, attitudes and perceptions.

Innovation for creating a smart future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sang M. Lee

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Today, we live in a dynamic and turbulent global community. The wave of mega-trends, including rapid change in globalization and technological advances, is creating new market forces. For any organization to survive and prosper in such an environment, innovation is imperative. However, innovation is no longer just for creating value to benefit individuals, organizations, or societies. The ultimate purpose of innovation should be much more far reaching, helping create a smart future where people can enjoy the best quality of life possible. Thus, innovation must search for intelligent solutions to tackle major social ills, seek more proactive approaches to predict the uncertain future, and pursue strategies to remove barriers to the smart future. This study explores the detailed requirements of a smart future, including both hardware types and soft social/cultural components.

A Mechanism for Multidisciplinary Dialogue: The Memory & … Series

Science.gov (United States)

Multhaup, Kristi S.; Denham, Scott; Kelly, Hilton; Lom, Barbara

2011-01-01

Neuroscientists have long explored the mechanisms of memory from molecular, physiological, cognitive, and social perspectives. Scholars from other disciplines such as history, sociology, literature, and cultural studies, that do not traditionally cross-pollinate ideas with neuroscientists, also study memory from a variety of angles. In this article, we describe the founding of a multidisciplinary discussion series in which faculty and staff from the arts, humanities, social sciences, and natural sciences come together to explain how memory is integral to their scholarship and teaching. After panelists from different disciplines present opening comments, the floor is open for discussion with the audience that includes students, staff, and community members, as well as other faculty. Each year the series is anchored by a keynote address by an eminent scholar engaged in cross-disciplinary memory research. We outline the benefits of such thematic discussion series, highlighting the synchrony with the academy’s increasing focus on interdisciplinarity, and on the need to train scholars to speak clearly about their work beyond their own disciplinary boundaries. More specifically, we focus on the need to train scientists to communicate with non-scientists. We have experienced success with this series and believe that the format could be adapted to a wide range of issues that cross disciplines (e.g., development, language, music, environmental studies). PMID:23626499

The role of an exergy-based building stock model for exploration of future decarbonisation scenarios and policy making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García Kerdan, Iván; Raslan, Rokia; Ruyssevelt, Paul; Morillón Gálvez, David

2017-01-01

State-of-the-art research suggests that energy systems are best evaluated using exergy analysis, as exergy represents the real value of an energy source, demonstrating it to be the only rational basis for evaluation. After discovering the lack of thermodynamic integration into stock modelling, this paper presents the development of an exergy-based building stock model. The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to investigate the impact of large-scale future energy retrofit scenarios in the English and Welsh (E&W) non-domestic sector, and secondly, to determine the potential of exergy analysis in improving sectoral efficiency and its potential implications on exergy-oriented policy making. The research explores seven different large-scale future retrofit scenarios that encompass typical, low-carbon, and low-exergy approaches. Modelling results show that by 2050, current regulations have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 49.0±2.9% and increasing sector thermodynamic efficiency from 10.7% to 13.7%. On the other hand, a low-exergy oriented scenario based on renewable electricity and heat pumps is able to reduce carbon emissions by 88.2±2.4%, achieving a sectoral exergy efficiency of 19.8%. This modelling framework can provide energy policy makers with new insights on policy options based on exergy indicators and the assessment of their potential impact. - Highlights: • A bottom-up exergy-based model was developed to analyse the UK non-domestic sector. • Different low-carbon and low-exergy large-scale retrofit scenarios were assessed. • The UK non-domestic sector as a whole has an exergy efficiency of 10.7±4.06%. • Exergy-based retrofits could reduce sectoral carbon emissions by 88±2.4% for 2050. • Exergy oriented policies are required to obtain a sustainable building sector.

Investment in exploration-production and refining 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hureau, Geoffroy; Serbutoviez, Sylvain; Silva, Constancio; Maisonnier, Guy

2014-11-01

IFPEN analyses in this study the 2014 evolution of global investment in the field of exploration-production and refining: 1 - Changes in oil and gas prices: General background: weak economy and global disorder, Oil prices: fundamentals that could help to relax oil prices?, Gas prices: fall in Europe, stability in Japan, increase in the US; 2 - Exploration and production - Slowdown in growth: moderate rise in investment in 2014, exploration - Discoveries in 2014, Russia: sanctions will have limited short term impact, implications of the reforms to the Mexican energy sector; 3 - Drilling activity and market throughout the world: onshore and offshore drilling (Number of wells drilled throughout the world, Number of onshore wells, Number of offshore wells, Drilling, equipment and well services markets, Onshore drilling market, Offshore drilling market, Fracking market), Geophysical activity and the geophysical market, Offshore construction activity and the offshore construction market (Offshore construction activities, Rig construction activity, Floating Platform Systems (FPS), Sub-sea constructions, Offshore construction market); 4 - Refining - Significant increase in spending: increase in industrial costs, a slowdown in the increase in excess capacity in the future?, A bleak future for the european refining sector

Technology and the future of healthcare

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harold Thimbleby

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Healthcare changes dramatically because of technological developments, from anesthetics and antibiotics to magnetic resonance imaging scanners and radiotherapy. Future technological innovation is going to keep transforming healthcare, yet while technologies (new drugs and treatments, new devices, new social media support for healthcare, etc will drive innovation, human factors will remain one of the stable limitations of breakthroughs. No predictions can satisfy everybody; instead, this article explores fragments of the future to see how to think more clearly about how to get where we want to go.

Two Future Ready Librarians Explore Advocacy in and outside of the Library

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Shannon McClintock; Ray, Mark

2018-01-01

As part of the national Future Ready Librarians initiative at the Alliance for Excellent Education, Mark Ray and Shannon McClintock Miller serve as national advocates for school library programs and librarians. Mark and Shannon began their library advocacy careers in school libraries. For eight years, Shannon was the district librarian in Van…

Community Report and Recommendations from International Lunar Exploration Working Group (ILEWG)

Science.gov (United States)

Foing, Bernard H.

2016-07-01

The International Lunar Exploration Working Group (ILEWG) was established in April 1995 at a meeting in Hamburg, Germany. As established in its charter, this working group reports to COSPAR and is charged with developing an international strategy for the exploration of the Moon. It discusses coordination between missions, and a road map for future international lunar exploration and utilisation. It fosters information exchange or potential and real future lunar robotic and human missions, as well as for new scientific and exploration information about the Moon. We refer to COSPAR and ILEWG ICEUM and lunar conferences and declarations [1-18], present the GLUC/ICEUM11 declaration and give a report on ongoing relevant ILEWG community activities. ILEWG supported community forums, ILEWG EuroMoonMars field campaigns and technology validation activities, as well as Young Lunar Explorers events, and activities with broad stakeholders. We discuss how lunar missions SMART-1, Kaguya, Chang'E1&2, Chandrayaan-1, LCROSS, LRO, GRAIL, LADEE, Chang'E3 and upcoming missions contribute to lunar exploration objectives & roadmap towards the Moon Village. GLUC/ICEUM11 declaration: "467 International Lunar Explorers, registered delegates from 26 countries, assembled at GLUC Global Lunar Conference including the 11th ILEWG Conference on Exploration and Utilisation of the Moon (ICEUM11) in Beijing. The conference engaged scientists, engineers, enthusiast explorers, agencies and organisations in the discussion of recent results and activities and the review of plans for exploration. Space agencies representatives gave the latest reports on their current lunar activities and programmes. GLUC-ICEUM11 was a truly historical meeting that demonstrated the world-wide interest in lunar exploration, discovery, and science. More than 400 abstracts were accepted for oral and poster presentations in the technical sessions, organised in 32 sessions within 4 symposia: Science and Exploration; Technology

Projections on the future of the natural uranium industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishido, Akio

1995-01-01

This discussion looks at the future of the uranium industry and considers what type of procurement policy should be adopted. Viewing the future as an extension of the present, it is possible that supplies of natural uranium will begin to run short around 2015. However, natural uranium will have more resources available than petroleum. If rising uranium prices reinvigorate exploration and lead to the discovery of new uranium deposits, future shortages will be unlikely. Nonetheless, with structural changes expected in the world economy, the nature of natural uranium transactions will no doubt change, thereby increasing the present element of uncertainty that much more. At the same time, the oligopolistic situation created by today's major producers will intensify. Based on these projections, the author has reassessed Japan's past procurement policy of government exploration/development support combined with private-sector uranium purchasing and finds this shared risk approach to be the best. (author)

The future of privacy - Addressing singularities to identify bright-line rules that speak to us

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Hert, Paul

2016-01-01

To apprehend the future of privacy I have opted for a controlled exploration of the issue, mainly taking the form of delamination: an exploration or assessment of privacy in a broad sense is not the object of this reflection. The focus is on technology-related privacy. Is the future of (some aspects

Learning Outcomes in Sustainability Education among Future Elementary School Teachers

Science.gov (United States)

Foley, Rider W.; Archambault, Leanna M.; Hale, Annie E.; Dong, Hsiang-Kai

2017-01-01

Universities and colleges around the world are exploring ways of reorganizing curricula to educate future leaders in sustainability. Preservice teachers hold tremendous potential to introduce concepts of sustainability far earlier than post-secondary education. However, there is little research of such efforts to yield changes in future elementary…

Ping pong in Phuket: the intersections of tourism, porn and the future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michelle Stella Mars

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Purpose – Sex tourism is well documented in the literature, but what about porn tourism? Whether it is a Ping Pong show in Phuket or the Banana show in Amsterdam, porn and tourism have an encounter and gaze no different from the Mona Lisa in the Louvre or magnificent views of New Zealand’s Southern Alps. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – This paper explores the intersections of tourism, porn and the future as a conceptual framework. Findings – Four intersections are derived from the conceptual framework. Intersection 1, the Future of Tourism, portrays the evolution of tourism and explores its technological future. Interaction 2, Porn in Tourism, distinguishes between soft- and hard-core porn tourism. Intersection 3, Portraying Porn as a Future Dimension, delves into futurism, science fiction and fantasy. The fourth intersection, the Future Gaze, conveys the thrust of the paper by exploring how technological advancement blends with authenticity and reality. Thus the porn tourist seeks both the visual and the visceral pleasures of desire. The paper concludes with four future gazes of porn tourism, The Allure of Porn, The Porn Bubble, Porn as Liminal Experience and Hardcore. Originality/value – The originality of this paper is that this is the first paper to systematically examine porn tourism beyond sex tourism overlaying with a futures dimension. Porn tourists actively seek to experience both visual and visceral pleasures. Tourism and pornography both begin with the gaze. The gaze is an integral component of futures thinking. Technology is changing us, making us smarter, driving our thirst for liminal experiences. Like the transition from silent movies to talking pictures the porn tourism experience of the future is likely to involve more of the bodily senses.

Exploration Technology Development including Surface Acoustic Wave RFID chips

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project is focused on maturing future surface exploration technologies and instrumentation and working towards flight instrumentation and systems to support...

Future{at}Labs.Prosperity Game{trademark}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beck, D.F.; Boyack, K.W.; Berman, M. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Innovative Alliances Dept.

1996-10-01

Prosperity Games{trademark} are an outgrowth and adaptation of move/countermove and seminar War Games, Prosperity Games{trademark} are simulations that explore complex issues in a variety of areas including economics, politics, sociology, environment, education, and research. These issues can be examined from a variety of perspectives ranging from global, macroeconomic and geopolitical viewpoint down to the details of customer/supplier/market interactions specific industries. All Prosperity Games{trademark} are unique in that both the game format and the player contributions vary from game to game. This report documents the Future{at}Labs.Prosperity Game{trademark} conducted under the sponsorship of the Industry Advisory Boards of the national labs, the national labs, Lockheed Martin Corporation, and the University of California. Players were drawn from all stakeholders involved including government, industry, labs, and academia. The primary objectives of this game were to: (1) explore ways to optimize the role of the multidisciplinary labs in serving national missions and needs; (2) explore ways to increase collaboration and partnerships among government, laboratories, universities, and industry; and (3) create a network of partnership champions to promote findings and policy options. The deliberations and recommendations of these players provided valuable insights as to the views of this diverse group of decision makers concerning the future of the labs.

Novel series of 1,2,4-trioxane derivatives as antimalarial agents.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudrapal, Mithun; Chetia, Dipak; Singh, Vineeta

2017-12-01

Among three series of 1,2,4-trioxane derivatives, five compounds showed good in vitro antimalarial activity, three compounds of which exhibited better activity against P. falciparum resistant (RKL9) strain than the sensitive (3D7) one. Two best compounds were one from aryl series and the other from heteroaryl series with IC 50 values of 1.24 µM and 1.24 µM and 1.06 µM and 1.17 µM, against sensitive and resistant strains, respectively. Further, trioxane derivatives exhibited good binding affinity for the P. falciparum cysteine protease falcipain 2 receptor (PDB id: 3BPF) with well defined drug-like and pharmacokinetic properties based on Lipinski's rule of five with additional physicochemical and ADMET parameters. In view of having antimalarial potential, 1,2,4-trioxane derivative(s) reported herein may be useful as novel antimalarial lead(s) in the discovery and development of future antimalarial drug candidates as P. falciparum falcipain 2 inhibitors against resistant malaria.

Exploring the Drinking/Driving Behaviors and Attitudes of College Students.

Science.gov (United States)

Geller, E. Scott

While there is little research specifically dealing with college students and drunk driving, there is ample evidence of frequent, heavy drinking by students. A series of projects was undertaken to explore college students' drinking behavior and attitudes related to alcohol-impaired driving. These projects included: (1) analysis of behavioral…

Writing My Way to My Future | Poster

Science.gov (United States)

By Nathalie Walker, Guest Writer Editor’s note: This article is the second in a series describing one student’s perspective on her experiences as a Werner H. Kirsten student intern. “The future depends on what you do today.” Those wise words were spoken by Mahatma Gandhi. Before I started my Werner H. Kirsten (WHK) student internship, I did not know what I know now. I only

Exploring Partial School Autonomy: What Does It Mean for the Cypriot School of the Future?

Science.gov (United States)

Theodorou, Theodoros; Pashiardis, Petros

2016-01-01

This paper examines the school of the future, aiming to identify and aid the implementation of the most desired version of school autonomy in Cyprus. More specifically, the study initially forecasts the areas of financial decisions that the school of the future might autonomously manage, identifies the negative effects that may appear along the…

Time series analysis for psychological research: examining and forecasting change.

Science.gov (United States)

Jebb, Andrew T; Tay, Louis; Wang, Wei; Huang, Qiming

2015-01-01

Psychological research has increasingly recognized the importance of integrating temporal dynamics into its theories, and innovations in longitudinal designs and analyses have allowed such theories to be formalized and tested. However, psychological researchers may be relatively unequipped to analyze such data, given its many characteristics and the general complexities involved in longitudinal modeling. The current paper introduces time series analysis to psychological research, an analytic domain that has been essential for understanding and predicting the behavior of variables across many diverse fields. First, the characteristics of time series data are discussed. Second, different time series modeling techniques are surveyed that can address various topics of interest to psychological researchers, including describing the pattern of change in a variable, modeling seasonal effects, assessing the immediate and long-term impact of a salient event, and forecasting future values. To illustrate these methods, an illustrative example based on online job search behavior is used throughout the paper, and a software tutorial in R for these analyses is provided in the Supplementary Materials.

Time series analysis for psychological research: examining and forecasting change

Science.gov (United States)

Jebb, Andrew T.; Tay, Louis; Wang, Wei; Huang, Qiming

2015-01-01

Psychological research has increasingly recognized the importance of integrating temporal dynamics into its theories, and innovations in longitudinal designs and analyses have allowed such theories to be formalized and tested. However, psychological researchers may be relatively unequipped to analyze such data, given its many characteristics and the general complexities involved in longitudinal modeling. The current paper introduces time series analysis to psychological research, an analytic domain that has been essential for understanding and predicting the behavior of variables across many diverse fields. First, the characteristics of time series data are discussed. Second, different time series modeling techniques are surveyed that can address various topics of interest to psychological researchers, including describing the pattern of change in a variable, modeling seasonal effects, assessing the immediate and long-term impact of a salient event, and forecasting future values. To illustrate these methods, an illustrative example based on online job search behavior is used throughout the paper, and a software tutorial in R for these analyses is provided in the Supplementary Materials. PMID:26106341

Determining the significance of associations between two series of discrete events : bootstrap methods /

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Niehof, Jonathan T.; Morley, Steven K.

2012-01-01

We review and develop techniques to determine associations between series of discrete events. The bootstrap, a nonparametric statistical method, allows the determination of the significance of associations with minimal assumptions about the underlying processes. We find the key requirement for this method: one of the series must be widely spaced in time to guarantee the theoretical applicability of the bootstrap. If this condition is met, the calculated significance passes a reasonableness test. We conclude with some potential future extensions and caveats on the applicability of these methods. The techniques presented have been implemented in a Python-based software toolkit.

The future of practical skills in undergraduate medical education – an explorative Delphi-Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dannenberg, Katja Anne

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Background: 64% of young medical professionals in Germany do not feel adequately prepared for the practical requirements of the medical profession. The goal of “outcome-orientated training” is to structure medical curricula based on the skills needed when entering the workforce after completing undergraduate medical education, and thus to bridge the gap between the skills graduates have attained and those necessary for a career in the medical profession. Outcome frameworks (OFs are used for this purpose. In preparation for developing the National Competence-Based Catalogue of Learning Objectives for Medicine (NKLM – the German OF – the “Consensus Statement of Practical Skills in Undergraduate Medical Education” (which structures the teaching and acquisition of practical skills in Germany and which strongly influenced the “Clinical-Practical Skills” chapter of the NKLM was published in 2011.It is not uncommon for at least a decade to elapse between the definition and implementation of an OF and the students’ graduation, which can further increase the gap between necessary and acquired skills. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to posit theses for future development in healthcare and to apply these theses to a current OF. Methodology: Partially structured interviews with experts were used to generate theses pertaining to general, future development in healthcare. These theses were assessed by physician experts based on the likelihood of implementation by the year 2025. The 288 learning goals of the consensus statement were assessed for their relevance for medical education in the interim. Results: 11 theses were generated for the development of medicine, and these theses were assessed and discussed by 738 experts. These theses include the increase in diseases associated with old age, the increasing significance of interprofessional cooperation, and the growing prevalence of telemedicine applications. Of the 288 learning goals of

Particle fueling experiments with a series of pellets in LHD

Science.gov (United States)

Baldzuhn, J.; Damm, H.; Dinklage, A.; Sakamoto, R.; Motojima, G.; Yasuhara, R.; Ida, K.; Yamada, H.; LHD Experiment Group; Wendelstein 7-X Team

2018-03-01

Ice pellet injection is performed in the heliotron Large Helical Device (LHD). The pellets are injected in short series, with up to eight individual pellets. Parameter variations are performed for the pellet ice isotopes, the LHD magnetic configurations, the heating scenario, and some others. These experiments are performed in order to find out whether deeper fueling can be achieved with a series of pellets compared to single pellets. An increase of the fueling efficiency is expected since pre-cooling of the plasma by the first pellets within a series could aid deeper penetration of later pellets in the same series. In addition, these experiments show which boundary conditions must be fulfilled to optimize the technique. The high-field side injection of pellets, as proposed for deep fueling in a tokamak, will not be feasible with the same efficiency in a stellarator or heliotron because there the magnetic field gradient is smaller than in a tokamak of comparable size. Hence, too shallow pellet fueling, in particular in a large device or a fusion reactor, will be an issue that can be overcome only by extremely high pellet velocities, or other techniques that will have to be developed in the future. It turned out by our investigations that the fueling efficiency can be enhanced by the injection of a series of pellets to some extent. However, further investigations will be needed in order to optimize this approach for deep particle fueling.

Adaptive Anchoring Model: How Static and Dynamic Presentations of Time Series Influence Judgments and Predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Kusev, Petko; van Schaik, Paul; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Juliusson, Asgeir; Chater, Nick

2018-01-01

When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. One psychological characteristic of judgmental forecasting of time series, established by research, is that when people make forecasts from series, they tend to underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones, so-called trend-damping (modeled by anchoring on, and insufficient adjustment from, the average of recent time series values). Events in a time series can be experienced sequentially (dynamic mode), or they can also be retrospectively viewed simultaneously (static mode), not experienced individually in real time. In one experiment, we studied the influence of presentation mode (dynamic and static) on two sorts of judgment: (a) predictions of the next event (forecast) and (b) estimation of the average value of all the events in the presented series (average estimation). Participants' responses in dynamic mode were anchored on more recent events than in static mode for all types of judgment but with different consequences; hence, dynamic presentation improved prediction accuracy, but not estimation. These results are not anticipated by existing theoretical accounts; we develop and present an agent-based model-the adaptive anchoring model (ADAM)-to account for the difference between processing sequences of dynamically and statically presented stimuli (visually presented data). ADAM captures how variation in presentation mode produces variation in responses (and the accuracy of these responses) in both forecasting and judgment tasks. ADAM's model predictions for the forecasting and judgment tasks fit better with the response data than a linear-regression time series model. Moreover, ADAM outperformed autoregressive-integrated-moving-average (ARIMA) and exponential-smoothing models, while neither of these models accounts for people's responses on the average estimation task. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Cognitive Science published by Wiley

SMART-1 technology, scientific results and heritage for future space missions