WorldWideScience

Sample records for series estimating teacher

  1. Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population density grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's...

  2. Efficient multidimensional regularization for Volterra series estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birpoutsoukis, Georgios; Csurcsia, Péter Zoltán; Schoukens, Johan

    2018-05-01

    This paper presents an efficient nonparametric time domain nonlinear system identification method. It is shown how truncated Volterra series models can be efficiently estimated without the need of long, transient-free measurements. The method is a novel extension of the regularization methods that have been developed for impulse response estimates of linear time invariant systems. To avoid the excessive memory needs in case of long measurements or large number of estimated parameters, a practical gradient-based estimation method is also provided, leading to the same numerical results as the proposed Volterra estimation method. Moreover, the transient effects in the simulated output are removed by a special regularization method based on the novel ideas of transient removal for Linear Time-Varying (LTV) systems. Combining the proposed methodologies, the nonparametric Volterra models of the cascaded water tanks benchmark are presented in this paper. The results for different scenarios varying from a simple Finite Impulse Response (FIR) model to a 3rd degree Volterra series with and without transient removal are compared and studied. It is clear that the obtained models capture the system dynamics when tested on a validation dataset, and their performance is comparable with the white-box (physical) models.

  3. The Prediction of Teacher Turnover Employing Time Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Crist H.

    The purpose of this study was to combine knowledge of teacher demographic data with time-series forecasting methods to predict teacher turnover. Moving averages and exponential smoothing were used to forecast discrete time series. The study used data collected from the 22 largest school districts in Iowa, designated as FACT schools. Predictions…

  4. EIA completes corrections to drilling estimates series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trapmann, W.; Shambaugh, P.

    1998-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has published monthly and annual estimates of US oil and gas drilling activity since 1978. These data are key information for many industry analysts, serving as a leading indicator of trends in the industry and a barometer of general industry status. They are assessed directly for trends, as well as in combination with other measures to assess the productivity and profitability of upstream industry operations. They are major reference points for federal and state policymakers. EIA does not itself collect drilling activity data. Instead, it relies on an external source for data on oil, bas, and dry well completions. These data are provided to EIA monthly on an as reported basis. During a recent effort to enhance EIA's well completion data system, the detection of unusual patterns in the well completion data as received led to an expanded examination of these data. Substantial discrepancies between the data as received by EIA and correct record counts since 1987 were identified. For total wells by year, the errors ranged up to more than 2,300 wells, 11% of the 1995 total, and the impact of these errors extended backward in time to at least the early 1980s. When the magnitude and extent of the as reported well completion data problem were confirmed, EIA suspended its publication and distribution of updated drilling data. EIA staff proceeded to acquire replacement files with the as reported records and then revise the statistical portion of its drilling data system to reflect the new information. The replacement files unfortunately also included erroneous data based on the improper allocation of wells between exploration and development. EIA has now resolved the two data problems and generated revised time series estimates for well completions and footage drilled. The paper describes the problems in the data, differences between the series, and maintaining future data quality

  5. Brakes Specialist. Teacher Edition. Automotive Service Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oklahoma State Dept. of Vocational and Technical Education, Stillwater. Curriculum and Instructional Materials Center.

    This document contains teacher's materials for a course on becoming an automotive brakes specialist, based on the National Institute of Automotive Service Excellence task lists. The course consists of three instructional units: service brake hydraulic system and wheel bearings, service drum brakes, and service disc brakes. Depending on the…

  6. Lag space estimation in time series modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goutte, Cyril

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to investigate some techniques for finding the relevant lag-space, i.e. input information, for time series modelling. This is an important aspect of time series modelling, as it conditions the design of the model through the regressor vector a.k.a. the input layer...

  7. On a family of Bessel type functions: Estimations, series, overconvergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paneva-Konovska, Jordanka

    2017-12-01

    A family of the Bessel-Maitland functions are considered in this paper and some useful estimations are obtained for them. Series defined by means of these functions are considered and their behaviour on the boundaries of the convergence domains is discussed. Using the obtained estimations, necessary and sufficient conditions for the series overconvergence, as well as Hadamard type theorem are proposed.

  8. Covariance matrix estimation for stationary time series

    OpenAIRE

    Xiao, Han; Wu, Wei Biao

    2011-01-01

    We obtain a sharp convergence rate for banded covariance matrix estimates of stationary processes. A precise order of magnitude is derived for spectral radius of sample covariance matrices. We also consider a thresholded covariance matrix estimator that can better characterize sparsity if the true covariance matrix is sparse. As our main tool, we implement Toeplitz [Math. Ann. 70 (1911) 351–376] idea and relate eigenvalues of covariance matrices to the spectral densities or Fourier transforms...

  9. Estimating High-Dimensional Time Series Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medeiros, Marcelo C.; Mendes, Eduardo F.

    We study the asymptotic properties of the Adaptive LASSO (adaLASSO) in sparse, high-dimensional, linear time-series models. We assume both the number of covariates in the model and candidate variables can increase with the number of observations and the number of candidate variables is, possibly......, larger than the number of observations. We show the adaLASSO consistently chooses the relevant variables as the number of observations increases (model selection consistency), and has the oracle property, even when the errors are non-Gaussian and conditionally heteroskedastic. A simulation study shows...

  10. Computational Error Estimate for the Power Series Solution of Odes ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper compares the error estimation of power series solution with recursive Tau method for solving ordinary differential equations. From the computational viewpoint, the power series using zeros of Chebyshevpolunomial is effective, accurate and easy to use. Keywords: Lanczos Tau method, Chebyshev polynomial, ...

  11. Estimation of pure autoregressive vector models for revenue series ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper aims at applying multivariate approach to Box and Jenkins univariate time series modeling to three vector series. General Autoregressive Vector Models with time varying coefficients are estimated. The first vector is a response vector, while others are predictor vectors. By matrix expansion each vector, whether ...

  12. Similarity estimators for irregular and age uncertain time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2013-09-01

    Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many datasets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel based cross correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity

  13. Similarity estimators for irregular and age-uncertain time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2014-01-01

    Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many data sets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age-uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel-based cross-correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case, coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity

  14. Time Series Decomposition into Oscillation Components and Phase Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuda, Takeru; Komaki, Fumiyasu

    2017-02-01

    Many time series are naturally considered as a superposition of several oscillation components. For example, electroencephalogram (EEG) time series include oscillation components such as alpha, beta, and gamma. We propose a method for decomposing time series into such oscillation components using state-space models. Based on the concept of random frequency modulation, gaussian linear state-space models for oscillation components are developed. In this model, the frequency of an oscillator fluctuates by noise. Time series decomposition is accomplished by this model like the Bayesian seasonal adjustment method. Since the model parameters are estimated from data by the empirical Bayes' method, the amplitudes and the frequencies of oscillation components are determined in a data-driven manner. Also, the appropriate number of oscillation components is determined with the Akaike information criterion (AIC). In this way, the proposed method provides a natural decomposition of the given time series into oscillation components. In neuroscience, the phase of neural time series plays an important role in neural information processing. The proposed method can be used to estimate the phase of each oscillation component and has several advantages over a conventional method based on the Hilbert transform. Thus, the proposed method enables an investigation of the phase dynamics of time series. Numerical results show that the proposed method succeeds in extracting intermittent oscillations like ripples and detecting the phase reset phenomena. We apply the proposed method to real data from various fields such as astronomy, ecology, tidology, and neuroscience.

  15. Nonparametric autocovariance estimation from censored time series by Gaussian imputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jung Wook; Genton, Marc G; Ghosh, Sujit K

    2009-02-01

    One of the most frequently used methods to model the autocovariance function of a second-order stationary time series is to use the parametric framework of autoregressive and moving average models developed by Box and Jenkins. However, such parametric models, though very flexible, may not always be adequate to model autocovariance functions with sharp changes. Furthermore, if the data do not follow the parametric model and are censored at a certain value, the estimation results may not be reliable. We develop a Gaussian imputation method to estimate an autocovariance structure via nonparametric estimation of the autocovariance function in order to address both censoring and incorrect model specification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the technique in terms of bias and efficiency with simulations under various rates of censoring and underlying models. We describe its application to a time series of silicon concentrations in the Arctic.

  16. Series load induction heating inverter state estimator using Kalman filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szelitzky T.

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available LQR and H2 controllers require access to the states of the controlled system. The method based on description function with Fourier series results in a model with immeasurable states. For this reason, we proposed a Kalman filter based state estimator, which not only filters the input signals, but also computes the unobservable states of the system. The algorithm of the filter was implemented in LabVIEW v8.6 and tested on recorded data obtained from a 10-40 kHz series load frequency controlled induction heating inverter.

  17. Estimation of dynamic flux profiles from metabolic time series data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chou I-Chun

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Advances in modern high-throughput techniques of molecular biology have enabled top-down approaches for the estimation of parameter values in metabolic systems, based on time series data. Special among them is the recent method of dynamic flux estimation (DFE, which uses such data not only for parameter estimation but also for the identification of functional forms of the processes governing a metabolic system. DFE furthermore provides diagnostic tools for the evaluation of model validity and of the quality of a model fit beyond residual errors. Unfortunately, DFE works only when the data are more or less complete and the system contains as many independent fluxes as metabolites. These drawbacks may be ameliorated with other types of estimation and information. However, such supplementations incur their own limitations. In particular, assumptions must be made regarding the functional forms of some processes and detailed kinetic information must be available, in addition to the time series data. Results The authors propose here a systematic approach that supplements DFE and overcomes some of its shortcomings. Like DFE, the approach is model-free and requires only minimal assumptions. If sufficient time series data are available, the approach allows the determination of a subset of fluxes that enables the subsequent applicability of DFE to the rest of the flux system. The authors demonstrate the procedure with three artificial pathway systems exhibiting distinct characteristics and with actual data of the trehalose pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Conclusions The results demonstrate that the proposed method successfully complements DFE under various situations and without a priori assumptions regarding the model representation. The proposed method also permits an examination of whether at all, to what degree, or within what range the available time series data can be validly represented in a particular functional format of

  18. Statistical methods of parameter estimation for deterministically chaotic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisarenko, V. F.; Sornette, D.

    2004-03-01

    We discuss the possibility of applying some standard statistical methods (the least-square method, the maximum likelihood method, and the method of statistical moments for estimation of parameters) to deterministically chaotic low-dimensional dynamic system (the logistic map) containing an observational noise. A “segmentation fitting” maximum likelihood (ML) method is suggested to estimate the structural parameter of the logistic map along with the initial value x1 considered as an additional unknown parameter. The segmentation fitting method, called “piece-wise” ML, is similar in spirit but simpler and has smaller bias than the “multiple shooting” previously proposed. Comparisons with different previously proposed techniques on simulated numerical examples give favorable results (at least, for the investigated combinations of sample size N and noise level). Besides, unlike some suggested techniques, our method does not require the a priori knowledge of the noise variance. We also clarify the nature of the inherent difficulties in the statistical analysis of deterministically chaotic time series and the status of previously proposed Bayesian approaches. We note the trade off between the need of using a large number of data points in the ML analysis to decrease the bias (to guarantee consistency of the estimation) and the unstable nature of dynamical trajectories with exponentially fast loss of memory of the initial condition. The method of statistical moments for the estimation of the parameter of the logistic map is discussed. This method seems to be the unique method whose consistency for deterministically chaotic time series is proved so far theoretically (not only numerically).

  19. ACER Tests of Basic Skills: Aspects of Literacy, Aspects of Numercy. Teacher's Manual. Blue Series 6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lokan, Jan; And Others

    Developed for the Basic Skills Testing Program (BSTP) in New South Wales, Australia, this teacher's manual describes the ACER (Australian Council for Educational Research) Tests of Basic Skills. The two tests in this series, Aspects of Literacy and Aspects of Numeracy, were administered statewide by government school classroom teachers in August,…

  20. Estimation of vegetation cover resilience from satellite time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Simoniello

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Resilience is a fundamental concept for understanding vegetation as a dynamic component of the climate system. It expresses the ability of ecosystems to tolerate disturbances and to recover their initial state. Recovery times are basic parameters of the vegetation's response to forcing and, therefore, are essential for describing realistic vegetation within dynamical models. Healthy vegetation tends to rapidly recover from shock and to persist in growth and expansion. On the contrary, climatic and anthropic stress can reduce resilience thus favouring persistent decrease in vegetation activity.

    In order to characterize resilience, we analyzed the time series 1982–2003 of 8 km GIMMS AVHRR-NDVI maps of the Italian territory. Persistence probability of negative and positive trends was estimated according to the vegetation cover class, altitude, and climate. Generally, mean recovery times from negative trends were shorter than those estimated for positive trends, as expected for vegetation of healthy status. Some signatures of inefficient resilience were found in high-level mountainous areas and in the Mediterranean sub-tropical ones. This analysis was refined by aggregating pixels according to phenology. This multitemporal clustering synthesized information on vegetation cover, climate, and orography rather well. The consequent persistence estimations confirmed and detailed hints obtained from the previous analyses. Under the same climatic regime, different vegetation resilience levels were found. In particular, within the Mediterranean sub-tropical climate, clustering was able to identify features with different persistence levels in areas that are liable to different levels of anthropic pressure. Moreover, it was capable of enhancing reduced vegetation resilience also in the southern areas under Warm Temperate sub-continental climate. The general consistency of the obtained results showed that, with the help of suited analysis

  1. Minimum Distance Estimation on Time Series Analysis With Little Data

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tekin, Hakan

    2001-01-01

    .... Minimum distance estimation has been demonstrated better standard approaches, including maximum likelihood estimators and least squares, in estimating statistical distribution parameters with very small data sets...

  2. "In the Footsteps of Alexander the Great" PBS Series. Teacher's Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corporation for Public Broadcasting, Washington, DC.

    This teacher's guide correlates with the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) television series "In the Footsteps of Alexander the Great" hosted by historian Michael Wood. The four episodes of the series are entitled: "Son of God"; "Lord of Asia"; "Across the Hindu Kush"; and "To the Ends of the…

  3. ACER Tests of Basic Skills: Aspects of Literacy, Aspects of Numeracy. Teacher's Manual. Green Series 6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lokan, Jan; And Others

    Developed for the Basic Skills Testing Program (BSTP) in New South Wales, Australia, this teacher's manual describes the Green Series 6 of the ACER (Australian Council for Educational Research) Tests of Basic Skills. The two tests in this series, Aspects of Literacy and Aspects of Numeracy, were administered statewide by government school…

  4. ACER Tests of Basic Skills: Aspects of Literacy, Aspects of Numeracy. Teacher's Manual. Blue Series 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lokan, Jan; And Others

    Developed for the Basic Skills Testing Program (BSTP) in New South Wales, Australia, this teacher's manual describes the Blue Series 3 of the ACER (Australian Council for Educational Research) Tests of Basic Skills. The two tests in the series, Aspects of Literacy and Aspects of Numeracy, were administered statewide by government school classroom…

  5. ACER Tests of Basic Skills: Aspects of Literacy, Aspects of Numeracy. Teacher's Manual. Green Series 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lokan, Jan; And Others

    Developed for the Basic Skills Testing Program (BSTP) in New South Wales, Australia, this teacher's manual describes the Green Series 3 of the ACER (Australian Council for Educational Research) Tests of Basic Skills. The two tests in this series, Aspects of Literacy and Aspects of Numeracy, were administered statewide by government school…

  6. Preparing for the Market. Teacher Edition. Fashion Buying Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Cindy

    This teacher's guide presents material for a unit on preparing for the retail fashion market. Content focuses on merchandise plans, computing open-to-buy, computing turnover, the components of a model stock plan, and criteria used when selecting a supplier. The guide contains 5 objectives, 6 group learning activities keyed to the objectives, 21…

  7. Introduction to Fashion Buying. Teacher Edition. Fashion Buying Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Cindy

    This teacher's guide presents material for a unit on introduction to fashion buying. Content focuses on information sources, retail store types, the responsibilities of a buyer, and the qualifications of a buyer. The guide contains 4 objectives, 4 group learning activities keyed to the objectives, 17 transparency masters with dialogue for each,…

  8. Going to the Market. Teacher Edition. Fashion Buying Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Cindy

    This teacher's guide presents material for a unit on attending the retail fashion market. Content focuses on previewing merchandise for purchase, factors involved in a major market trip, common terms used when ordering merchandise, and pricing strategies. The guide contains 4 objectives, 6 group learning activities keyed to the objectives, 12…

  9. Introduction to Financial Services. Teacher Edition. Financial Services Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oklahoma State Dept. of Vocational and Technical Education, Stillwater. Curriculum and Instructional Materials Center.

    This document contains teacher's materials for a course designed for 11th- and 12th-grade students who are interested in pursuing a career in financial institutions. The course consists of six instructional units: orientation, personal money management, the wise use of credit, negotiable instruments, communications, and security. Depending on the…

  10. Bad Teacher! How Blaming Teachers Distorts the Bigger Picture. Teaching for Social Justice Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumashiro, Kevin K.

    2012-01-01

    In his latest book, leading educator and author Kevin Kumashiro takes aim at the current debate on educational reform, paying particular attention to the ways that scapegoating public school teachers, teacher unions, and teacher educators masks the real, systemic problems. He convincingly demonstrates how current trends, like market-based reforms…

  11. Brakes Specialist. Teacher Edition. Automotive Service Series. Second Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oklahoma State Dept. of Vocational and Technical Education, Stillwater. Curriculum and Instructional Materials Center.

    This curriculum guide for automatic brakes service is one in a series of automotive service speciality publications that is based on the National Institute of Automotive Service Excellence task lists. The curriculum is composed of four units. Each unit of instruction may contain some or all of the following components: objective sheet, suggested…

  12. Lasers. Technology Learning Activity. Teacher Edition. Technology Education Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oklahoma State Dept. of Vocational and Technical Education, Stillwater. Curriculum and Instructional Materials Center.

    This document contains the materials required for presenting an 8-day competency-based technology learning activity (TLA) designed to introduce students in grades 6-10 to advances and career opportunities in the field of laser technology. The guide uses a series of hands-on exploratory experiences into which activities to help students develop…

  13. Golden Mountain Reading Series. Teacher's Guide, Level 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Robert

    This reading series was developed as a means to educate Chinese-American elementary school students in Chinese reading, writing, and culture. The following topics are covered: Chinese literature, Chinese and American history, famous people, general knowledge, Chinese ideography, the four seasons, and the major Chinese and American festivals and…

  14. Critical points of multidimensional random Fourier series: variance estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Nicolaescu, Liviu I.

    2013-01-01

    To any positive number $\\varepsilon$ and any nonnegative even Schwartz function $w:\\mathbb{R}\\to\\mathbb{R}$ we associate the random function $u^\\varepsilon$ on the $m$-torus $T^m_\\varepsilon:=\\mathbb{R}^m/(\\varepsilon^{-1}\\mathbb{Z})^m$ defined as the real part of the random Fourier series $$ \\sum_{\

  15. Invasion Ecology. Teacher's Guide [and Student Edition]. Cornell Scientific Inquiry Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krasny, Marianne E.; Trautmann, Nancy; Carlsen, William; Cunningham, Christine

    This book contains the teacher's guide of the Environmental Inquiry curriculum series developed at Cornell University. It is designed to teach learning skills for investigating the behaviors of non-native and native species and demonstrate how to apply scientific knowledge to solve real-life problems. This book focuses on strange intruders…

  16. Estimating the level of dynamical noise in time series by using fractal dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sase, Takumi; Ramírez, Jonatán Peña; Kitajo, Keiichi; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Hirata, Yoshito

    2016-01-01

    We present a method for estimating the dynamical noise level of a ‘short’ time series even if the dynamical system is unknown. The proposed method estimates the level of dynamical noise by calculating the fractal dimensions of the time series. Additionally, the method is applied to EEG data to demonstrate its possible effectiveness as an indicator of temporal changes in the level of dynamical noise. - Highlights: • A dynamical noise level estimator for time series is proposed. • The estimator does not need any information about the dynamics generating the time series. • The estimator is based on a novel definition of time series dimension (TSD). • It is demonstrated that there exists a monotonic relationship between the • TSD and the level of dynamical noise. • We apply the proposed method to human electroencephalographic data.

  17. Estimating the level of dynamical noise in time series by using fractal dimensions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sase, Takumi, E-mail: sase@sat.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan); Ramírez, Jonatán Peña [CONACYT Research Fellow, Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education at Ensenada (CICESE), Carretera Ensenada-Tijuana No. 3918, Zona Playitas, C.P. 22860, Ensenada, Baja California (Mexico); Kitajo, Keiichi [BSI-Toyota Collaboration Center, RIKEN Brain Science Institute, Wako, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Aihara, Kazuyuki; Hirata, Yoshito [Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan); Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan)

    2016-03-11

    We present a method for estimating the dynamical noise level of a ‘short’ time series even if the dynamical system is unknown. The proposed method estimates the level of dynamical noise by calculating the fractal dimensions of the time series. Additionally, the method is applied to EEG data to demonstrate its possible effectiveness as an indicator of temporal changes in the level of dynamical noise. - Highlights: • A dynamical noise level estimator for time series is proposed. • The estimator does not need any information about the dynamics generating the time series. • The estimator is based on a novel definition of time series dimension (TSD). • It is demonstrated that there exists a monotonic relationship between the • TSD and the level of dynamical noise. • We apply the proposed method to human electroencephalographic data.

  18. Estimation of Hurst Exponent for the Financial Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, J.; Manchanda, P.

    2009-07-01

    Till recently statistical methods and Fourier analysis were employed to study fluctuations in stock markets in general and Indian stock market in particular. However current trend is to apply the concepts of wavelet methodology and Hurst exponent, see for example the work of Manchanda, J. Kumar and Siddiqi, Journal of the Frankline Institute 144 (2007), 613-636 and paper of Cajueiro and B. M. Tabak. Cajueiro and Tabak, Physica A, 2003, have checked the efficiency of emerging markets by computing Hurst component over a time window of 4 years of data. Our goal in the present paper is to understand the dynamics of the Indian stock market. We look for the persistency in the stock market through Hurst exponent and fractal dimension of time series data of BSE 100 and NIFTY 50.

  19. Overcoming equifinality: Leveraging long time series for stream metabolism estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appling, Alison; Hall, Robert O.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Arroita, Maite

    2018-01-01

    The foundational ecosystem processes of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) cannot be measured directly but can be modeled in aquatic ecosystems from subdaily patterns of oxygen (O2) concentrations. Because rivers and streams constantly exchange O2 with the atmosphere, models must either use empirical estimates of the gas exchange rate coefficient (K600) or solve for all three parameters (GPP, ER, and K600) simultaneously. Empirical measurements of K600 require substantial field work and can still be inaccurate. Three-parameter models have suffered from equifinality, where good fits to O2 data are achieved by many different parameter values, some unrealistic. We developed a new three-parameter, multiday model that ensures similar values for K600 among days with similar physical conditions (e.g., discharge). Our new model overcomes the equifinality problem by (1) flexibly relating K600 to discharge while permitting moderate daily deviations and (2) avoiding the oft-violated assumption that residuals in O2 predictions are uncorrelated. We implemented this hierarchical state-space model and several competitor models in an open-source R package, streamMetabolizer. We then tested the models against both simulated and field data. Our new model reduces error by as much as 70% in daily estimates of K600, GPP, and ER. Further, accuracy benefits of multiday data sets require as few as 3 days of data. This approach facilitates more accurate metabolism estimates for more streams and days, enabling researchers to better quantify carbon fluxes, compare streams by their metabolic regimes, and investigate controls on aquatic activity.

  20. Estimating retention potential of headwater catchment using Tritium time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, Harald; Cartwright, Ian; Morgenstern, Uwe

    2018-06-01

    Headwater catchments provide substantial streamflow to rivers even during long periods of drought. Documenting the mean transit times (MTT) of stream water in headwater catchments and therefore the retention capacities of these catchments is crucial for water management. This study uses time series of 3H activities in combination with major ion concentrations, stable isotope ratios and radon activities (222Rn) in the Lyrebird Creek catchment in Victoria, Australia to provide a unique insight into the mean transit time distributions and flow systems of this small temperate headwater catchment. At all streamflows, the stream has 3H activities (water in the stream is derived from stores with long transit times. If the water in the catchment can be represented by a single store with a continuum of ages, mean transit times of the stream water range from ∼6 up to 40 years, which indicates the large retention potential for this catchment. Alternatively, variations of 3H activities, stable isotopes and major ions can be explained by mixing between of young recent recharge and older water stored in the catchment. While surface runoff is negligible, the variation in stable isotope ratios, major ion concentrations and radon activities during most of the year is minimal (±12%) and only occurs during major storm events. This suggests that different subsurface water stores are activated during the storm events and that these cease to provide water to the stream within a few days or weeks after storm events. The stores comprise micro and macropore flow in the soils and saprolite as well as the boundary between the saprolite and the fractured bed rock. Hydrograph separations from three major storm events using Tritium, electrical conductivity and selected major ions as well a δ18O suggest a minimum of 50% baseflow at most flow conditions. We demonstrate that headwater catchments can have a significant storage capacity and that the relationship between long-water stores and

  1. A Sandwich-Type Standard Error Estimator of SEM Models with Multivariate Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guangjian; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ong, Anthony D.

    2011-01-01

    Structural equation models are increasingly used as a modeling tool for multivariate time series data in the social and behavioral sciences. Standard error estimators of SEM models, originally developed for independent data, require modifications to accommodate the fact that time series data are inherently dependent. In this article, we extend a…

  2. Water temperature forecasting and estimation using fourier series and communication theory techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, L.L.

    1976-01-01

    Fourier series and statistical communication theory techniques are utilized in the estimation of river water temperature increases caused by external thermal inputs. An example estimate assuming a constant thermal input is demonstrated. A regression fit of the Fourier series approximation of temperature is then used to forecast daily average water temperatures. Also, a 60-day prediction of daily average water temperature is made with the aid of the Fourier regression fit by using significant Fourier components

  3. Evaluating Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Series for Estimating Frequency of Small Magnitude Floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fazlul Karim

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the nature of frequent floods is important for characterising channel morphology, riparian and aquatic habitat, and informing river restoration efforts. This paper presents results from an analysis on frequency estimates of low magnitude floods using the annual maximum and partial series data compared to actual flood series. Five frequency distribution models were fitted to data from 24 gauging stations in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR lagoon catchments in north-eastern Australia. Based on the goodness of fit test, Generalised Extreme Value, Generalised Pareto and Log Pearson Type 3 models were used to estimate flood frequencies across the study region. Results suggest frequency estimates based on a partial series are better, compared to an annual series, for small to medium floods, while both methods produce similar results for large floods. Although both methods converge at a higher recurrence interval, the convergence recurrence interval varies between catchments. Results also suggest frequency estimates vary slightly between two or more partial series, depending on flood threshold, and the differences are large for the catchments that experience less frequent floods. While a partial series produces better frequency estimates, it can underestimate or overestimate the frequency if the flood threshold differs largely compared to bankfull discharge. These results have significant implications in calculating the dependency of floodplain ecosystems on the frequency of flooding and their subsequent management.

  4. Tightness of M-estimators for multiple linear regression in time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Bent

    We show tightness of a general M-estimator for multiple linear regression in time series. The positive criterion function for the M-estimator is assumed lower semi-continuous and sufficiently large for large argument: Particular cases are the Huber-skip and quantile regression. Tightness requires...

  5. Employ Simulation Techniques. Second Edition. Module C-5 of Category C--Instructional Execution. Professional Teacher Education Module Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohio State Univ., Columbus. National Center for Research in Vocational Education.

    One of a series of performance-based teacher education learning packages focusing upon specific professional competencies of vocational teachers, this learning module deals with employing simulation techniques. It consists of an introduction and four learning experiences. Covered in the first learning experience are various types of simulation…

  6. Preparation of Teachers of Students with Emotional/Behavioral Disorders. Retrospective Series on Critical Issues in Emotional/Behavioral Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bullock, Lyndal M., Ed.; Gable, Robert A., Ed.; Rutherford, Robert B., Jr., Ed.

    The third in a series, this collection of previously published monographs examines the challenges of preparing teachers to work with students who have emotional and behavioral disorders (EBD). Monographs include: (1) "Issues in Training Teachers for the Seriously Emotionally Disturbed" (Frank H. Wood), which discusses preparing regular and special…

  7. Assess Student Performance: Skills. Second Edition. Module D-4 of Category D--Instructional Evaluation. Professional Teacher Education Module Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohio State Univ., Columbus. National Center for Research in Vocational Education.

    This module, one of a series of 127 performance-based teacher education learning packages focusing upon specific professional competencies of vocational education teachers, deals with assessing student performance of psychomotor skills. Included in the module are learning experiences that address the following topics: important considerations…

  8. Estimating Cause: Teacher Turnover and School Effectiveness in Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keesler, Venessa; Schneider, Barbara

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is investigate issues related to within-school teacher supply and school-specific teacher turnover within the state of Michigan using state administrative data on Michigan's teaching force. This paper 1) investigates the key predictors of teacher turnover and mobility, 2) develops a profile of schools that are likely to…

  9. Estimation of Airborne Lidar-Derived Tropical Forest Canopy Height Using Landsat Time Series in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuji Ota

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we test and demonstrate the utility of disturbance and recovery information derived from annual Landsat time series to predict current forest vertical structure (as compared to the more common approaches, that consider a sample of airborne Lidar and single-date Landsat derived variables. Mean Canopy Height (MCH was estimated separately using single date, time series, and the combination of single date and time series variables in multiple regression and random forest (RF models. The combination of single date and time series variables, which integrate disturbance history over the entire time series, overall provided better MCH prediction than using either of the two sets of variables separately. In general, the RF models resulted in improved performance in all estimates over those using multiple regression. The lowest validation error was obtained using Landsat time series variables in a RF model (R2 = 0.75 and RMSE = 2.81 m. Combining single date and time series data was more effective when the RF model was used (opposed to multiple regression. The RMSE for RF mean canopy height prediction was reduced by 13.5% when combining the two sets of variables as compared to the 3.6% RMSE decline presented by multiple regression. This study demonstrates the value of airborne Lidar and long term Landsat observations to generate estimates of forest canopy height using the random forest algorithm.

  10. Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

    1995-05-01

    The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

  11. ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.-G. Zhou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

  12. Estimating the Persistence and the Autocorrelation Function of a Time Series that is Measured with Error

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger

    An economic time series can often be viewed as a noisy proxy for an underlying economic variable. Measurement errors will influence the dynamic properties of the observed process and may conceal the persistence of the underlying time series. In this paper we develop instrumental variable (IV...... application despite the large sample. Unit root tests based on the IV estimator have better finite sample properties in this context....

  13. On sharp estimates of the convergence of double Fourier-Bessel series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abilov, V. A.; Abilova, F. V.; Kerimov, M. K.

    2017-11-01

    The problem of approximation of a differentiable function of two variables by partial sums of a double Fourier-Bessel series is considered. Sharp estimates of the rate of convergence of the double Fourier-Bessel series on the class of differentiable functions of two variables characterized by a generalized modulus of continuity are obtained. The proofs of four theorems on this issue, which can be directly applied to solving particular problems of mathematical physics, approximation theory, etc., are presented.

  14. Sensitivity of Hurst parameter estimation to periodic signals in time series and filtering approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marković, D.; Koch, M.

    2005-09-01

    The influence of the periodic signals in time series on the Hurst parameter estimate is investigated with temporal, spectral and time-scale methods. The Hurst parameter estimates of the simulated periodic time series with a white noise background show a high sensitivity on the signal to noise ratio and for some methods, also on the data length used. The analysis is then carried on to the investigation of extreme monthly river flows of the Elbe River (Dresden) and of the Rhine River (Kaub). Effects of removing the periodic components employing different filtering approaches are discussed and it is shown that such procedures are a prerequisite for an unbiased estimation of H. In summary, our results imply that the first step in a time series long-correlation study should be the separation of the deterministic components from the stochastic ones. Otherwise wrong conclusions concerning possible memory effects may be drawn.

  15. Estimation of system parameters in discrete dynamical systems from time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palaniyandi, P.; Lakshmanan, M.

    2005-01-01

    We propose a simple method to estimate the parameters involved in discrete dynamical systems from time series. The method is based on the concept of controlling chaos by constant feedback. The major advantages of the method are that it needs a minimal number of time series data (either vector or scalar) and is applicable to dynamical systems of any dimension. The method also works extremely well even in the presence of noise in the time series. The method is specifically illustrated by means of logistic and Henon maps

  16. Generalized least squares and empirical Bayes estimation in regional partial duration series index-flood modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    parameters is inferred from regional data using generalized least squares (GLS) regression. Two different Bayesian T-year event estimators are introduced: a linear estimator that requires only some moments of the prior distributions to be specified and a parametric estimator that is based on specified......A regional estimation procedure that combines the index-flood concept with an empirical Bayes method for inferring regional information is introduced. The model is based on the partial duration series approach with generalized Pareto (GP) distributed exceedances. The prior information of the model...

  17. Spectral Estimation of UV-Vis Absorbance Time Series for Water Quality Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Plazas-Nossa

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Context: Signals recorded as multivariate time series by UV-Vis absorbance captors installed in urban sewer systems, can be non-stationary, yielding complications in the analysis of water quality monitoring. This work proposes to perform spectral estimation using the Box-Cox transformation and differentiation in order to obtain stationary multivariate time series in a wide sense. Additionally, Principal Component Analysis (PCA is applied to reduce their dimensionality. Method: Three different UV-Vis absorbance time series for different Colombian locations were studied: (i El-Salitre Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP in Bogotá; (ii Gibraltar Pumping Station (GPS in Bogotá; and (iii San-Fernando WWTP in Itagüí. Each UV-Vis absorbance time series had equal sample number (5705. The esti-mation of the spectral power density is obtained using the average of modified periodograms with rectangular window and an overlap of 50%, with the 20 most important harmonics from the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT and Inverse Fast Fourier Transform (IFFT. Results: Absorbance time series dimensionality reduction using PCA, resulted in 6, 8 and 7 principal components for each study site respectively, altogether explaining more than 97% of their variability. Values of differences below 30% for the UV range were obtained for the three study sites, while for the visible range the maximum differences obtained were: (i 35% for El-Salitre WWTP; (ii 61% for GPS; and (iii 75% for San-Fernando WWTP. Conclusions: The Box-Cox transformation and the differentiation process applied to the UV-Vis absorbance time series for the study sites (El-Salitre, GPS and San-Fernando, allowed to reduce variance and to eliminate ten-dency of the time series. A pre-processing of UV-Vis absorbance time series is recommended to detect and remove outliers and then apply the proposed process for spectral estimation. Language: Spanish.

  18. Effect of parameter calculation in direct estimation of the Lyapunov exponent in short time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. López Jiménez

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The literature about non-linear dynamics offers a few recommendations, which sometimes are divergent, about the criteria to be used in order to select the optimal calculus parameters in the estimation of Lyapunov exponents by direct methods. These few recommendations are circumscribed to the analysis of chaotic systems. We have found no recommendation for the estimation of λ starting from the time series of classic systems. The reason for this is the interest in distinguishing variability due to a chaotic behavior of determinist dynamic systems of variability caused by white noise or linear stochastic processes, and less in the identification of non-linear terms from the analysis of time series. In this study we have centered in the dependence of the Lyapunov exponent, obtained by means of direct estimation, of the initial distance and the time evolution. We have used generated series of chaotic systems and generated series of classic systems with varying complexity. To generate the series we have used the logistic map.

  19. Multifractals embedded in short time series: An unbiased estimation of probability moment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Lu; Yang, Tianguang; Yin, Yanhua; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

    2016-12-01

    An exact estimation of probability moments is the base for several essential concepts, such as the multifractals, the Tsallis entropy, and the transfer entropy. By means of approximation theory we propose a new method called factorial-moment-based estimation of probability moments. Theoretical prediction and computational results show that it can provide us an unbiased estimation of the probability moments of continuous order. Calculations on probability redistribution model verify that it can extract exactly multifractal behaviors from several hundred recordings. Its powerfulness in monitoring evolution of scaling behaviors is exemplified by two empirical cases, i.e., the gait time series for fast, normal, and slow trials of a healthy volunteer, and the closing price series for Shanghai stock market. By using short time series with several hundred lengths, a comparison with the well-established tools displays significant advantages of its performance over the other methods. The factorial-moment-based estimation can evaluate correctly the scaling behaviors in a scale range about three generations wider than the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis and the basic estimation. The estimation of partition function given by the wavelet transform modulus maxima has unacceptable fluctuations. Besides the scaling invariance focused in the present paper, the proposed factorial moment of continuous order can find its various uses, such as finding nonextensive behaviors of a complex system and reconstructing the causality relationship network between elements of a complex system.

  20. Estimating primary production from oxygen time series: A novel approach in the frequency domain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cox, T.J.S.; Maris, T.; Soetaert, K.; Kromkamp, J.C.; Meire, P.; Meysman, F.J.R.

    2015-01-01

    Based on an analysis in the frequency domain of the governing equation of oxygen dynamics in aquatic systems, we derive a new method for estimating gross primary production (GPP) from oxygen time series. The central result of this article is a relation between time averaged GPP and the amplitude of

  1. Strategies for Estimating Teacher Supply and Demand Using Student and Teacher Data. REL 2017-197

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, Jim; Wan, Yinmei; Berg-Jacobson, Alexander; Walston, Jill; Redford, Jeremy

    2016-01-01

    Every year the U.S. Department of Education reports for each state in the country the grade levels, subject areas, and geographic areas that have experienced teacher shortages (U.S. Department of Education, Office of Postsecondary Education, 2015). A teacher shortage occurs when the number of teachers available in a specific grade, subject matter…

  2. Motivation of Teachers. ACSA School Management Digest, Series 1, Number 18. ERIC/CEM Research Analysis Series, Number 46.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Sydney

    This publication discusses intrinsic teacher motivation by reviewing human resources literature and making use of educational literature and interviews with working educators. First it provides sketches of the work motivation theories of McGregor, Maslow, Herzberg, and Deci. Next, the paper examines the work and problems of teachers. Finally, it…

  3. Subtraction by Distraction: Publishing Value-Added Estimates of Teachers by Name Hinders Education Reform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Diana; Miller, Raegen T.

    2011-01-01

    In August 2010 the "Los Angeles Times" published a special report on their website featuring performance ratings for nearly 6,000 Los Angeles Unified School District teachers. The move was controversial because the ratings were based on so-called value-added estimates of teachers' contributions to student learning. As with most…

  4. The Implications of Summer Learning Loss for Value-Added Estimates of Teacher Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershenson, Seth; Hayes, Michael S.

    2018-01-01

    School districts across the United States increasingly use value-added models (VAMs) to evaluate teachers. In practice, VAMs typically rely on lagged test scores from the previous academic year, which necessarily conflate summer with school-year learning and potentially bias estimates of teacher effectiveness. We investigate the practical…

  5. An adaptive state of charge estimation approach for lithium-ion series-connected battery system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Simin; Zhu, Xuelai; Xing, Yinjiao; Shi, Hongbing; Cai, Xu; Pecht, Michael

    2018-07-01

    Due to the incorrect or unknown noise statistics of a battery system and its cell-to-cell variations, state of charge (SOC) estimation of a lithium-ion series-connected battery system is usually inaccurate or even divergent using model-based methods, such as extended Kalman filter (EKF) and unscented Kalman filter (UKF). To resolve this problem, an adaptive unscented Kalman filter (AUKF) based on a noise statistics estimator and a model parameter regulator is developed to accurately estimate the SOC of a series-connected battery system. An equivalent circuit model is first built based on the model parameter regulator that illustrates the influence of cell-to-cell variation on the battery system. A noise statistics estimator is then used to attain adaptively the estimated noise statistics for the AUKF when its prior noise statistics are not accurate or exactly Gaussian. The accuracy and effectiveness of the SOC estimation method is validated by comparing the developed AUKF and UKF when model and measurement statistics noises are inaccurate, respectively. Compared with the UKF and EKF, the developed method shows the highest SOC estimation accuracy.

  6. Estimation of unemployment rates using small area estimation model by combining time series and cross-sectional data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muchlisoh, Siti; Kurnia, Anang; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Mangku, I. Wayan

    2016-02-01

    Labor force surveys conducted over time by the rotating panel design have been carried out in many countries, including Indonesia. Labor force survey in Indonesia is regularly conducted by Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik-BPS) and has been known as the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas). The main purpose of Sakernas is to obtain information about unemployment rates and its changes over time. Sakernas is a quarterly survey. The quarterly survey is designed only for estimating the parameters at the provincial level. The quarterly unemployment rate published by BPS (official statistics) is calculated based on only cross-sectional methods, despite the fact that the data is collected under rotating panel design. The study purpose to estimate a quarterly unemployment rate at the district level used small area estimation (SAE) model by combining time series and cross-sectional data. The study focused on the application and comparison between the Rao-Yu model and dynamic model in context estimating the unemployment rate based on a rotating panel survey. The goodness of fit of both models was almost similar. Both models produced an almost similar estimation and better than direct estimation, but the dynamic model was more capable than the Rao-Yu model to capture a heterogeneity across area, although it was reduced over time.

  7. A Modularized Efficient Framework for Non-Markov Time Series Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schamberg, Gabriel; Ba, Demba; Coleman, Todd P.

    2018-06-01

    We present a compartmentalized approach to finding the maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimate of a latent time series that obeys a dynamic stochastic model and is observed through noisy measurements. We specifically consider modern signal processing problems with non-Markov signal dynamics (e.g. group sparsity) and/or non-Gaussian measurement models (e.g. point process observation models used in neuroscience). Through the use of auxiliary variables in the MAP estimation problem, we show that a consensus formulation of the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) enables iteratively computing separate estimates based on the likelihood and prior and subsequently "averaging" them in an appropriate sense using a Kalman smoother. As such, this can be applied to a broad class of problem settings and only requires modular adjustments when interchanging various aspects of the statistical model. Under broad log-concavity assumptions, we show that the separate estimation problems are convex optimization problems and that the iterative algorithm converges to the MAP estimate. As such, this framework can capture non-Markov latent time series models and non-Gaussian measurement models. We provide example applications involving (i) group-sparsity priors, within the context of electrophysiologic specrotemporal estimation, and (ii) non-Gaussian measurement models, within the context of dynamic analyses of learning with neural spiking and behavioral observations.

  8. Error estimation in multitemporal InSAR deformation time series, with application to Lanzarote, Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    GonzáLez, Pablo J.; FernáNdez, José

    2011-10-01

    Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a reliable technique for measuring crustal deformation. However, despite its long application in geophysical problems, its error estimation has been largely overlooked. Currently, the largest problem with InSAR is still the atmospheric propagation errors, which is why multitemporal interferometric techniques have been successfully developed using a series of interferograms. However, none of the standard multitemporal interferometric techniques, namely PS or SB (Persistent Scatterers and Small Baselines, respectively) provide an estimate of their precision. Here, we present a method to compute reliable estimates of the precision of the deformation time series. We implement it for the SB multitemporal interferometric technique (a favorable technique for natural terrains, the most usual target of geophysical applications). We describe the method that uses a properly weighted scheme that allows us to compute estimates for all interferogram pixels, enhanced by a Montecarlo resampling technique that properly propagates the interferogram errors (variance-covariances) into the unknown parameters (estimated errors for the displacements). We apply the multitemporal error estimation method to Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands), where no active magmatic activity has been reported in the last decades. We detect deformation around Timanfaya volcano (lengthening of line-of-sight ˜ subsidence), where the last eruption in 1730-1736 occurred. Deformation closely follows the surface temperature anomalies indicating that magma crystallization (cooling and contraction) of the 300-year shallow magmatic body under Timanfaya volcano is still ongoing.

  9. A propagation-separation approach to estimate the autocorrelation in a time-series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Divine

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an approach to estimate parameters of a local stationary AR(1 time series model by maximization of a local likelihood function. The method is based on a propagation-separation procedure that leads to data dependent weights defining the local model. Using free propagation of weights under homogeneity, the method is capable of separating the time series into intervals of approximate local stationarity. Parameters in different regions will be significantly different. Therefore the method also serves as a test for a stationary AR(1 model. The performance of the method is illustrated by applications to both synthetic data and real time-series of reconstructed NAO and ENSO indices and GRIP stable isotopes.

  10. Asymptotics for the conditional-sum-of-squares estimator in multivariate fractional time series models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørregård Nielsen, Morten

    This paper proves consistency and asymptotic normality for the conditional-sum-of-squares estimator, which is equivalent to the conditional maximum likelihood estimator, in multivariate fractional time series models. The model is parametric and quite general, and, in particular, encompasses...... the multivariate non-cointegrated fractional ARIMA model. The novelty of the consistency result, in particular, is that it applies to a multivariate model and to an arbitrarily large set of admissible parameter values, for which the objective function does not converge uniformly in probablity, thus making...

  11. Two-pass imputation algorithm for missing value estimation in gene expression time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsiporkova, Elena; Boeva, Veselka

    2007-10-01

    Gene expression microarray experiments frequently generate datasets with multiple values missing. However, most of the analysis, mining, and classification methods for gene expression data require a complete matrix of gene array values. Therefore, the accurate estimation of missing values in such datasets has been recognized as an important issue, and several imputation algorithms have already been proposed to the biological community. Most of these approaches, however, are not particularly suitable for time series expression profiles. In view of this, we propose a novel imputation algorithm, which is specially suited for the estimation of missing values in gene expression time series data. The algorithm utilizes Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance in order to measure the similarity between time expression profiles, and subsequently selects for each gene expression profile with missing values a dedicated set of candidate profiles for estimation. Three different DTW-based imputation (DTWimpute) algorithms have been considered: position-wise, neighborhood-wise, and two-pass imputation. These have initially been prototyped in Perl, and their accuracy has been evaluated on yeast expression time series data using several different parameter settings. The experiments have shown that the two-pass algorithm consistently outperforms, in particular for datasets with a higher level of missing entries, the neighborhood-wise and the position-wise algorithms. The performance of the two-pass DTWimpute algorithm has further been benchmarked against the weighted K-Nearest Neighbors algorithm, which is widely used in the biological community; the former algorithm has appeared superior to the latter one. Motivated by these findings, indicating clearly the added value of the DTW techniques for missing value estimation in time series data, we have built an optimized C++ implementation of the two-pass DTWimpute algorithm. The software also provides for a choice between three different

  12. Characterizing and estimating noise in InSAR and InSAR time series with MODIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnhart, William D.; Lohman, Rowena B.

    2013-01-01

    InSAR time series analysis is increasingly used to image subcentimeter displacement rates of the ground surface. The precision of InSAR observations is often affected by several noise sources, including spatially correlated noise from the turbulent atmosphere. Under ideal scenarios, InSAR time series techniques can substantially mitigate these effects; however, in practice the temporal distribution of InSAR acquisitions over much of the world exhibit seasonal biases, long temporal gaps, and insufficient acquisitions to confidently obtain the precisions desired for tectonic research. Here, we introduce a technique for constraining the magnitude of errors expected from atmospheric phase delays on the ground displacement rates inferred from an InSAR time series using independent observations of precipitable water vapor from MODIS. We implement a Monte Carlo error estimation technique based on multiple (100+) MODIS-based time series that sample date ranges close to the acquisitions times of the available SAR imagery. This stochastic approach allows evaluation of the significance of signals present in the final time series product, in particular their correlation with topography and seasonality. We find that topographically correlated noise in individual interferograms is not spatially stationary, even over short-spatial scales (<10 km). Overall, MODIS-inferred displacements and velocities exhibit errors of similar magnitude to the variability within an InSAR time series. We examine the MODIS-based confidence bounds in regions with a range of inferred displacement rates, and find we are capable of resolving velocities as low as 1.5 mm/yr with uncertainties increasing to ∼6 mm/yr in regions with higher topographic relief.

  13. Autoregressive-model-based missing value estimation for DNA microarray time series data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choong, Miew Keen; Charbit, Maurice; Yan, Hong

    2009-01-01

    Missing value estimation is important in DNA microarray data analysis. A number of algorithms have been developed to solve this problem, but they have several limitations. Most existing algorithms are not able to deal with the situation where a particular time point (column) of the data is missing entirely. In this paper, we present an autoregressive-model-based missing value estimation method (ARLSimpute) that takes into account the dynamic property of microarray temporal data and the local similarity structures in the data. ARLSimpute is especially effective for the situation where a particular time point contains many missing values or where the entire time point is missing. Experiment results suggest that our proposed algorithm is an accurate missing value estimator in comparison with other imputation methods on simulated as well as real microarray time series datasets.

  14. [Winter wheat area estimation with MODIS-NDVI time series based on parcel].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Le; Zhang, Jin-shui; Zhu, Wen-quan; Hu, Tan-gao; Hou, Dong

    2011-05-01

    Several attributes of MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectrometer) data, especially the short temporal intervals and the global coverage, provide an extremely efficient way to map cropland and monitor its seasonal change. However, the reliability of their measurement results is challenged because of the limited spatial resolution. The parcel data has clear geo-location and obvious boundary information of cropland. Also, the spectral differences and the complexity of mixed pixels are weak in parcels. All of these make that area estimation based on parcels presents more advantage than on pixels. In the present study, winter wheat area estimation based on MODIS-NDVI time series has been performed with the support of cultivated land parcel in Tongzhou, Beijing. In order to extract the regional winter wheat acreage, multiple regression methods were used to simulate the stable regression relationship between MODIS-NDVI time series data and TM samples in parcels. Through this way, the consistency of the extraction results from MODIS and TM can stably reach up to 96% when the amount of samples accounts for 15% of the whole area. The results shows that the use of parcel data can effectively improve the error in recognition results in MODIS-NDVI based multi-series data caused by the low spatial resolution. Therefore, with combination of moderate and low resolution data, the winter wheat area estimation became available in large-scale region which lacks completed medium resolution images or has images covered with clouds. Meanwhile, it carried out the preliminary experiments for other crop area estimation.

  15. Uncertainty estimation with bias-correction for flow series based on rating curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Quanxi; Lerat, Julien; Podger, Geoff; Dutta, Dushmanta

    2014-03-01

    Streamflow discharge constitutes one of the fundamental data required to perform water balance studies and develop hydrological models. A rating curve, designed based on a series of concurrent stage and discharge measurements at a gauging location, provides a way to generate complete discharge time series with a reasonable quality if sufficient measurement points are available. However, the associated uncertainty is frequently not available even though it has a significant impact on hydrological modelling. In this paper, we identify the discrepancy of the hydrographers' rating curves used to derive the historical discharge data series and proposed a modification by bias correction which is also in the form of power function as the traditional rating curve. In order to obtain the uncertainty estimation, we propose a further both-side Box-Cox transformation to stabilize the regression residuals as close to the normal distribution as possible, so that a proper uncertainty can be attached for the whole discharge series in the ensemble generation. We demonstrate the proposed method by applying it to the gauging stations in the Flinders and Gilbert rivers in north-west Queensland, Australia.

  16. A Hierarchical Approach to Persistent Scatterer Network Construction and Deformation Time Series Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Zhang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a hierarchical approach to network construction and time series estimation in persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI for deformation analysis using the time series of high-resolution satellite SAR images. To balance between computational efficiency and solution accuracy, a dividing and conquering algorithm (i.e., two levels of PS networking and solution is proposed for extracting deformation rates of a study area. The algorithm has been tested using 40 high-resolution TerraSAR-X images collected between 2009 and 2010 over Tianjin in China for subsidence analysis, and validated by using the ground-based leveling measurements. The experimental results indicate that the hierarchical approach can remarkably reduce computing time and memory requirements, and the subsidence measurements derived from the hierarchical solution are in good agreement with the leveling data.

  17. Estimation of coefficients of multivariable power series approximating magnetic nonlinearity of AC machines*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sobczyk Tadeusz J.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Energy based approach was used in the study to formulate a set of functions approximating the magnetic flux linkages versus independent currents. The simplest power series that approximates field co-energy and linked fluxes for a two winding core of an induction machine are described by a set of common unknown coefficients. The authors tested three algorithms for the coefficient estimation using Weighted Least-Squared Method for two different positions of the coils. The comparison of the approximation accuracy was accomplished in the specified area of the currents. All proposed algorithms of the coefficient estimation have been found to be effective. The algorithm based solely on the magnetic field co-energy values is significantly simpler than the method based on the magnetic flux linkages estimation concept. The algorithm based on the field co-energy and linked fluxes seems to be the most suitable for determining simultaneously the coefficients of power series approximating linked fluxes and field co-energy.

  18. Teacher Satisfaction in Georgia and the Nation: Status and Trends. Teacher Burnout: Causes and Possible Cures. Issues for Education Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgia Professional Standards Commission, Atlanta.

    Researchers have attributed teacher turnover at both the state and national levels to the high incidence of teacher stress or burnout, a syndrome resulting from a variety of individual, organizational, and societal factors. Burnout involves physical, emotional, and attitudinal exhaustion generated by excessive demands upon the individual's energy,…

  19. Transfer Entropy Estimation and Directional Coupling Change Detection in Biomedical Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Joon

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The detection of change in magnitude of directional coupling between two non-linear time series is a common subject of interest in the biomedical domain, including studies involving the respiratory chemoreflex system. Although transfer entropy is a useful tool in this avenue, no study to date has investigated how different transfer entropy estimation methods perform in typical biomedical applications featuring small sample size and presence of outliers. Methods With respect to detection of increased coupling strength, we compared three transfer entropy estimation techniques using both simulated time series and respiratory recordings from lambs. The following estimation methods were analyzed: fixed-binning with ranking, kernel density estimation (KDE, and the Darbellay-Vajda (D-V adaptive partitioning algorithm extended to three dimensions. In the simulated experiment, sample size was varied from 50 to 200, while coupling strength was increased. In order to introduce outliers, the heavy-tailed Laplace distribution was utilized. In the lamb experiment, the objective was to detect increased respiratory-related chemosensitivity to O2 and CO2 induced by a drug, domperidone. Specifically, the separate influence of end-tidal PO2 and PCO2 on minute ventilation (V˙E before and after administration of domperidone was analyzed. Results In the simulation, KDE detected increased coupling strength at the lowest SNR among the three methods. In the lamb experiment, D-V partitioning resulted in the statistically strongest increase in transfer entropy post-domperidone for PO2→V˙E. In addition, D-V partitioning was the only method that could detect an increase in transfer entropy for PCO2→V˙E, in agreement with experimental findings. Conclusions Transfer entropy is capable of detecting directional coupling changes in non-linear biomedical time series analysis featuring a small number of observations and presence of outliers. The results

  20. HMGCR-associated myositis: a New Zealand case series and estimate of incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, N; Keating, P; O'Donnell, J

    2016-05-01

    Statins are one of the most commonly prescribed drugs in New Zealand, with 525 772 or 16.5% of the adult New Zealand population prescribed a statin between June 2013 and July 2014. While generally well-tolerated, statins are known to cause a range of muscle-related side effects, ranging from myalgia to life-threatening rhabdomyolysis. Recently, it has been recognised that in rare instances, statins can induce an immune-mediated necrotising myositis with antibodies against 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR), the enzymatic target of statins. In 2014, anti-HMGCR antibody testing was introduced to Canterbury Health Laboratories (CHL), with this being the only laboratory in New Zealand performing this test during the period of this case series. This article describes an index case and characterises the clinical features of a subsequent 12-month series. From this series, we estimated the yearly incidence of HMGCR-associated myositis at 1.7/million/year or ~1/90 000 New Zealand statin users. © 2016 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

  1. Estimation of the order of an autoregressive time series: a Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robb, L.J.

    1980-01-01

    Finite-order autoregressive models for time series are often used for prediction and other inferences. Given the order of the model, the parameters of the models can be estimated by least-squares, maximum-likelihood, or Yule-Walker method. The basic problem is estimating the order of the model. The problem of autoregressive order estimation is placed in a Bayesian framework. This approach illustrates how the Bayesian method brings the numerous aspects of the problem together into a coherent structure. A joint prior probability density is proposed for the order, the partial autocorrelation coefficients, and the variance; and the marginal posterior probability distribution for the order, given the data, is obtained. It is noted that the value with maximum posterior probability is the Bayes estimate of the order with respect to a particular loss function. The asymptotic posterior distribution of the order is also given. In conclusion, Wolfer's sunspot data as well as simulated data corresponding to several autoregressive models are analyzed according to Akaike's method and the Bayesian method. Both methods are observed to perform quite well, although the Bayesian method was clearly superior, in most cases

  2. Improved vertical streambed flux estimation using multiple diurnal temperature methods in series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, Dylan J.; Briggs, Martin A.; Cartwright, Ian; Scruggs, Courtney; Lautz, Laura K.

    2017-01-01

    Analytical solutions that use diurnal temperature signals to estimate vertical fluxes between groundwater and surface water based on either amplitude ratios (Ar) or phase shifts (Δϕ) produce results that rarely agree. Analytical solutions that simultaneously utilize Ar and Δϕ within a single solution have more recently been derived, decreasing uncertainty in flux estimates in some applications. Benefits of combined (ArΔϕ) methods also include that thermal diffusivity and sensor spacing can be calculated. However, poor identification of either Ar or Δϕ from raw temperature signals can lead to erratic parameter estimates from ArΔϕ methods. An add-on program for VFLUX 2 is presented to address this issue. Using thermal diffusivity selected from an ArΔϕ method during a reliable time period, fluxes are recalculated using an Ar method. This approach maximizes the benefits of the Ar and ArΔϕ methods. Additionally, sensor spacing calculations can be used to identify periods with unreliable flux estimates, or to assess streambed scour. Using synthetic and field examples, the use of these solutions in series was particularly useful for gaining conditions where fluxes exceeded 1 m/d.

  3. Examining teacher self-efficacy about best practices in science during a professional development series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menez, Jessica L.

    Using extant data that were collected as part of a larger project, the current study examined teacher self-efficacy and the teachers' intentions to implement workshop content throughout the course of a six-week professional development workshop focused on enhancing science motivation for students through the adoption of specific instructional strategies. There were a total of 20 middle and high school teacher participants. Results indicated teacher self-efficacy changed significantly from pre to post. Teachers showed higher teacher self-efficacy after the professional development, in particular for influencing student engagement. In addition, we found a moderate correlation between the level of confidence after the implementation of a strategy and teachers intention of trying the strategy again. Finally, new direction for future research topics made possible by this study are presented.

  4. Parameter estimation methods for gene circuit modeling from time-series mRNA data: a comparative study

    KAUST Repository

    Fan, M.; Kuwahara, Hiroyuki; Wang, X.; Wang, S.; Gao, Xin

    2015-01-01

    Parameter estimation is a challenging computational problemin the reverse engineering of biological systems. Because advances in biotechnology have facilitated wide availability of time-series gene expression data, systematic parameter esti- mation

  5. A regressive methodology for estimating missing data in rainfall daily time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barca, E.; Passarella, G.

    2009-04-01

    The "presence" of gaps in environmental data time series represents a very common, but extremely critical problem, since it can produce biased results (Rubin, 1976). Missing data plagues almost all surveys. The problem is how to deal with missing data once it has been deemed impossible to recover the actual missing values. Apart from the amount of missing data, another issue which plays an important role in the choice of any recovery approach is the evaluation of "missingness" mechanisms. When data missing is conditioned by some other variable observed in the data set (Schafer, 1997) the mechanism is called MAR (Missing at Random). Otherwise, when the missingness mechanism depends on the actual value of the missing data, it is called NCAR (Not Missing at Random). This last is the most difficult condition to model. In the last decade interest arose in the estimation of missing data by using regression (single imputation). More recently multiple imputation has become also available, which returns a distribution of estimated values (Scheffer, 2002). In this paper an automatic methodology for estimating missing data is presented. In practice, given a gauging station affected by missing data (target station), the methodology checks the randomness of the missing data and classifies the "similarity" between the target station and the other gauging stations spread over the study area. Among different methods useful for defining the similarity degree, whose effectiveness strongly depends on the data distribution, the Spearman correlation coefficient was chosen. Once defined the similarity matrix, a suitable, nonparametric, univariate, and regressive method was applied in order to estimate missing data in the target station: the Theil method (Theil, 1950). Even though the methodology revealed to be rather reliable an improvement of the missing data estimation can be achieved by a generalization. A first possible improvement consists in extending the univariate technique to

  6. A time series deformation estimation in the NW Himalayas using SBAS InSAR technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, V.; Venkataraman, G.

    2012-12-01

    A time series land deformation studies in north western Himalayan region has been presented in this study. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry (InSAR) is an important tool for measuring the land displacement caused by different geological processes [1]. Frequent spatial and temporal decorrelation in the Himalayan region is a strong impediment in precise deformation estimation using conventional interferometric SAR approach. In such cases, advanced DInSAR approaches PSInSAR as well as Small base line subset (SBAS) can be used to estimate earth surface deformation. The SBAS technique [2] is a DInSAR approach which uses a twelve or more number of repeat SAR acquisitions in different combinations of a properly chosen data (subsets) for generation of DInSAR interferograms using two pass interferometric approach. Finally it leads to the generation of mean deformation velocity maps and displacement time series. Herein, SBAS algorithm has been used for time series deformation estimation in the NW Himalayan region. ENVISAT ASAR IS2 swath data from 2003 to 2008 have been used for quantifying slow deformation. Himalayan region is a very active tectonic belt and active orogeny play a significant role in land deformation process [3]. Geomorphology in the region is unique and reacts to the climate change adversely bringing with land slides and subsidence. Settlements on the hill slopes are prone to land slides, landslips, rockslides and soil creep. These hazardous features have hampered the over all progress of the region as they obstruct the roads and flow of traffic, break communication, block flowing water in stream and create temporary reservoirs and also bring down lot of soil cover and thus add enormous silt and gravel to the streams. It has been observed that average deformation varies from -30.0 mm/year to 10 mm/year in the NW Himalayan region . References [1] Massonnet, D., Feigl, K.L.,Rossi, M. and Adragna, F. (1994) Radar interferometry mapping of

  7. Estimating and Analyzing Savannah Phenology with a Lagged Time Series Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boke-Olen, Niklas; Lehsten, Veiko; Ardo, Jonas

    2016-01-01

    cycle due to their areal coverage and can have an effect on the food security in regions that depend on subsistence farming. In this study we investigate how soil moisture, mean annual precipitation, and day length control savannah phenology by developing a lagged time series model. The model uses...... climate data for 15 flux tower sites across four continents, and normalized difference vegetation index from satellite to optimize a statistical phenological model. We show that all three variables can be used to estimate savannah phenology on a global scale. However, it was not possible to create...... a simplified savannah model that works equally well for all sites on the global scale without inclusion of more site specific parameters. The simplified model showed no bias towards tree cover or between continents and resulted in a cross-validated r2 of 0.6 and root mean squared error of 0.1. We therefore...

  8. Estimating the basic reproduction rate of HFMD using the time series SIR model in Guangdong, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhicheng Du

    Full Text Available Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD has caused a substantial burden of disease in China, especially in Guangdong Province. Based on notifiable cases, we use the time series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to estimate the basic reproduction rate (R0 and the herd immunity threshold, understanding the transmission and persistence of HFMD more completely for efficient intervention in this province. The standardized difference between the reported and fitted time series of HFMD was 0.009 (<0.2. The median basic reproduction rate of total, enterovirus 71, and coxsackievirus 16 cases in Guangdong were 4.621 (IQR: 3.907-5.823, 3.023 (IQR: 2.289-4.292 and 7.767 (IQR: 6.903-10.353, respectively. The heatmap of R0 showed semiannual peaks of activity, including a major peak in spring and early summer (about the 12th week followed by a smaller peak in autumn (about the 36th week. The county-level model showed that Longchuan (R0 = 33, Gaozhou (R0 = 24, Huazhou (R0 = 23 and Qingxin (R0 = 19 counties have higher basic reproduction rate than other counties in the province. The epidemic of HFMD in Guangdong Province is still grim, and strategies like the World Health Organization's expanded program on immunization need to be implemented. An elimination of HFMD in Guangdong might need a Herd Immunity Threshold of 78%.

  9. Assessing the Potential of Using Value-Added Estimates of Teacher Job Performance for Making Tenure Decisions. Working Paper 31

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldhaber, Dan; Hansen, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Reforming teacher tenure is an idea that appears to be gaining traction with the underlying assumption being that one can infer to a reasonable degree how well a teacher will perform over her career based on estimates of her early-career effectiveness. Here we explore the potential for using value-added models to estimate performance and inform…

  10. Environmental Kuznets revisited. Time-series versus panel estimation. The CO2-case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dijkgraaf, E.; Vollebergh, H.R.J.

    1998-01-01

    According to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis economic growth and improving environmental quality are compatible. An inverted U-shaped relationship would exist between economic performance and environmental quality suggesting that after some threshold a growing economy would cause smaller pollution. Usually the EKC hypothesis is tested for pooled panel data of some (sub)set of environmental indicators and GDP. The essential assumption behind pooling the observations of different countries in one panel is that the outcome of the economic process would be the same for all countries with respect to emissions. That is, the curvature of the Income-Emission Relation (IER) is the same for the pooled countries as far as they have the same GDP range. In our study we show this methodology to be misleading for at least the special case of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and the GDP level. Using OECD-wide data from 1960 to 1990, we find that the pooled estimation results show positive auto-correlation. Other studies correct for this problem. However, as we show, it seems more likely that the estimated regression model is not correct due to the pooling of the country observations. Testing the model per country reveals that the IER is very different for countries. While some countries show growing carbon dioxide emissions per capita with increasing income, others show a stabilizing pattern or even an EKC. This indicates that estimations based on pooling techniques can bias the conclusion about the true IER leading to unjustified inferences on the existence of the EKC. Extending the basic model may result in the justification of pooling. However, our estimations including country specific variables, like population density, openness of the economy and the availability of own fuel sources (endowment effects), do not make us optimistic. The autocorrelation problem remains. If a more general model can not be found the only remaining conclusion is that testing the EKC

  11. Stochastic models in the DORIS position time series: estimates for IDS contribution to ITRF2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, Anna; Bogusz, Janusz; Moreaux, Guilhem

    2017-11-01

    This paper focuses on the investigation of the deterministic and stochastic parts of the Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) weekly time series aligned to the newest release of ITRF2014. A set of 90 stations was divided into three groups depending on when the data were collected at an individual station. To reliably describe the DORIS time series, we employed a mathematical model that included the long-term nonlinear signal, linear trend, seasonal oscillations and a stochastic part, all being estimated with maximum likelihood estimation. We proved that the values of the parameters delivered for DORIS data are strictly correlated with the time span of the observations. The quality of the most recent data has significantly improved. Not only did the seasonal amplitudes decrease over the years, but also, and most importantly, the noise level and its type changed significantly. Among several tested models, the power-law process may be chosen as the preferred one for most of the DORIS data. Moreover, the preferred noise model has changed through the years from an autoregressive process to pure power-law noise with few stations characterised by a positive spectral index. For the latest observations, the medians of the velocity errors were equal to 0.3, 0.3 and 0.4 mm/year, respectively, for the North, East and Up components. In the best cases, a velocity uncertainty of DORIS sites of 0.1 mm/year is achievable when the appropriate coloured noise model is taken into consideration.

  12. Teacher Leaders: Transforming Schools from the inside. Occasional Paper Series 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmerler, Gil, Ed.; Mhatre, Nayantara; Stacy, Jill; Patrizio, Kami; Winkler, Jessica Endlich; Groves, Jennifer; Rockwood, Kathleen Dickinson; Lin, Clara E.; Hernandez, Lillian; Solorza, Cristian; Hummel, Robin E.

    2009-01-01

    Teacher leadership is "hard." Many of the reasons are obvious: Teaching is a highly labor-intensive profession to begin with, leaving little downtime for work with other adults. School schedules are notoriously stingy with space for adult collaboration. Teachers are rarely paid to exercise leadership; when they are, they are never paid…

  13. MITRA Virtual laboratory for operative application of satellite time series for land degradation risk estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nole, Gabriele; Scorza, Francesco; Lanorte, Antonio; Manzi, Teresa; Lasaponara, Rosa

    2015-04-01

    This paper aims to present the development of a tool to integrate time series from active and passive satellite sensors (such as of MODIS, Vegetation, Landsat, ASTER, COSMO, Sentinel) into a virtual laboratory to support studies on landscape and archaeological landscape, investigation on environmental changes, estimation and monitoring of natural and anthropogenic risks. The virtual laboratory is composed by both data and open source tools specifically developed for the above mentioned applications. Results obtained for investigations carried out using the implemented tools for monitoring land degradation issues and subtle changes ongoing on forestry and natural areas are herein presented. In detail MODIS, SPOT Vegetation and Landsat time series were analyzed comparing results of different statistical analyses and the results integrated with ancillary data and evaluated with field survey. The comparison of the outputs we obtained for the Basilicata Region from satellite data analyses and independent data sets clearly pointed out the reliability for the diverse change analyses we performed, at the pixel level, using MODIS, SPOT Vegetation and Landsat TM data. Next steps are going to be implemented to further advance the current Virtual Laboratory tools, by extending current facilities adding new computational algorithms and applying to other geographic regions. Acknowledgement This research was performed within the framework of the project PO FESR Basilicata 2007/2013 - Progetto di cooperazione internazionale MITRA "Remote Sensing tecnologies for Natural and Cultural heritage Degradation Monitoring for Preservation and valorization" funded by Basilicata Region Reference 1. A. Lanorte, R Lasaponara, M Lovallo, L Telesca 2014 Fisher-Shannon information plane analysis of SPOT/VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series to characterize vegetation recovery after fire disturbance International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and

  14. Integrating field plots, lidar, and landsat time series to provide temporally consistent annual estimates of biomass from 1990 to present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren B. Cohen; Hans-Erik Andersen; Sean P. Healey; Gretchen G. Moisen; Todd A. Schroeder; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Zhiqiang Yang; Robert E. Kennedy; Stephen V. Stehman; Curtis Woodcock; Jim Vogelmann; Zhe Zhu; Chengquan. Huang

    2015-01-01

    We are developing a system that provides temporally consistent biomass estimates for national greenhouse gas inventory reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Our model-assisted estimation framework relies on remote sensing to scale from plot measurements to lidar strip samples, to Landsat time series-based maps. As a demonstration, new...

  15. Estimating the parameters of globular cluster M 30 (NGC 7099) from time-series photometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kains, N.; Bramich, D.M.; Figuera Jaimes, R.

    2013-01-01

    Aims. We present the analysis of 26 nights of V and I time-series observations from 2011 and 2012 of the globular cluster M 30 (NGC 7099). We used our data to search for variable stars in this cluster and refine the periods of known variables; we then used our variable star light curves to derive...... values for the cluster's parameters. Methods. We used difference image analysis to reduce our data to obtain high-precision light curves of variable stars. We then estimated the cluster parameters by performing a Fourier decomposition of the light curves of RR Lyrae stars for which a good period estimate...... stars to derive cluster parameters using empirical relations. We find a cluster metallicity [Fe/H]ZW =-2.01 ± 0.04, or [Fe/H]UVES =-2.11 ± 0.06, and a distance of 8.32 ± 0.20 kpc (using RR0 variables), 8.10 kpc (using one RR1 variable), and 8.35 ± 0.42 kpc (using our SX Phoenicis star detection in M 30...

  16. Teacher Morale, Motivation and Professional Identity: Insight for Educational Policymakers from State Teachers of the Year. Teacher Researcher Policy Paper Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosso, David

    2017-01-01

    Informed by a qualitative study involving 24 individuals, each of whom has been recognized as a State Teacher of the Year, this report presents an exploration of the phenomena of teacher morale, motivation and perceptions of job satisfaction as related to professional identity and professional growth in the context of educational change. The…

  17. Developing first time-series of land surface temperature from AATSR with uncertainty estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, Darren; Remedios, John

    2013-04-01

    Land surface temperature (LST) is the radiative skin temperature of the land, and is one of the key parameters in the physics of land-surface processes on regional and global scales. Earth Observation satellites provide the opportunity to obtain global coverage of LST approximately every 3 days or less. One such source of satellite retrieved LST has been the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR); with LST retrieval being implemented in the AATSR Instrument Processing Facility in March 2004. Here we present first regional and global time-series of LST data from AATSR with estimates of uncertainty. Mean changes in temperature over the last decade will be discussed along with regional patterns. Although time-series across all three ATSR missions have previously been constructed (Kogler et al., 2012), the use of low resolution auxiliary data in the retrieval algorithm and non-optimal cloud masking resulted in time-series artefacts. As such, considerable ESA supported development has been carried out on the AATSR data to address these concerns. This includes the integration of high resolution auxiliary data into the retrieval algorithm and subsequent generation of coefficients and tuning parameters, plus the development of an improved cloud mask based on the simulation of clear sky conditions from radiance transfer modelling (Ghent et al., in prep.). Any inference on this LST record is though of limited value without the accompaniment of an uncertainty estimate; wherein the Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology quote an uncertainty as "a parameter associated with the result of a measurement that characterizes the dispersion of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand that is the value of the particular quantity to be measured". Furthermore, pixel level uncertainty fields are a mandatory requirement in the on-going preparation of the LST product for the upcoming Sea and Land Surface Temperature (SLSTR) instrument on-board Sentinel-3

  18. Estimating urban vegetation fraction across 25 cities in pan-Pacific using Landsat time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yuhao; Coops, Nicholas C.; Hermosilla, Txomin

    2017-04-01

    Urbanization globally is consistently reshaping the natural landscape to accommodate the growing human population. Urban vegetation plays a key role in moderating environmental impacts caused by urbanization and is critically important for local economic, social and cultural development. The differing patterns of human population growth, varying urban structures and development stages, results in highly varied spatial and temporal vegetation patterns particularly in the pan-Pacific region which has some of the fastest urbanization rates globally. Yet spatially-explicit temporal information on the amount and change of urban vegetation is rarely documented particularly in less developed nations. Remote sensing offers an exceptional data source and a unique perspective to map urban vegetation and change due to its consistency and ubiquitous nature. In this research, we assess the vegetation fractions of 25 cities across 12 pan-Pacific countries using annual gap-free Landsat surface reflectance products acquired from 1984 to 2012, using sub-pixel, spectral unmixing approaches. Vegetation change trends were then analyzed using Mann-Kendall statistics and Theil-Sen slope estimators. Unmixing results successfully mapped urban vegetation for pixels located in urban parks, forested mountainous regions, as well as agricultural land (correlation coefficient ranging from 0.66 to 0.77). The greatest vegetation loss from 1984 to 2012 was found in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Dalian in China. In contrast, cities including Vancouver (Canada) and Seattle (USA) showed stable vegetation trends through time. Using temporal trend analysis, our results suggest that it is possible to reduce noise and outliers caused by phenological changes particularly in cropland using dense new Landsat time series approaches. We conclude that simple yet effective approaches of unmixing Landsat time series data for assessing spatial and temporal changes of urban vegetation at regional scales can provide

  19. Informing Estimates of Program Effects for Studies of Mathematics Professional Development Using Teacher Content Knowledge Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, Geoffrey; Kelcey, Benjamin; Jones, Nathan; Liu, Shuangshuang

    2016-10-03

    Mathematics professional development is widely offered, typically with the goal of improving teachers' content knowledge, the quality of teaching, and ultimately students' achievement. Recently, new assessments focused on mathematical knowledge for teaching (MKT) have been developed to assist in the evaluation and improvement of mathematics professional development. This study presents empirical estimates of average program change in MKT and its variation with the goal of supporting the design of experimental trials that are adequately powered to detect a specified program effect. The study drew on a large database representing five different assessments of MKT and collectively 326 professional development programs and 9,365 teachers. Results from cross-classified hierarchical growth models found that standardized average change estimates across the five assessments ranged from a low of 0.16 standard deviations (SDs) to a high of 0.26 SDs. Power analyses using the estimated pre- and posttest change estimates indicated that hundreds of teachers are needed to detect changes in knowledge at the lower end of the distribution. Even studies powered to detect effects at the higher end of the distribution will require substantial resources to conduct rigorous experimental trials. Empirical benchmarks that describe average program change and its variation provide a useful preliminary resource for interpreting the relative magnitude of effect sizes associated with professional development programs and for designing adequately powered trials. © The Author(s) 2016.

  20. Improving artificial forest biomass estimates using afforestation age information from time series Landsat stacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Liangyun; Peng, Dailiang; Wang, Zhihui; Hu, Yong

    2014-11-01

    China maintains the largest artificial forest area in the world. Studying the dynamic variation of forest biomass and carbon stock is important to the sustainable use of forest resources and understanding of the artificial forest carbon budget in China. In this study, we investigated the potential of Landsat time series stacks for aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation in Yulin District, a key region of the Three-North Shelter region of China. Firstly, the afforestation age was successfully retrieved from the Landsat time series stacks in the last 40 years (from 1974 to 2013) and shown to be consistent with the surveyed tree ages, with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) value of 4.32 years and a determination coefficient (R (2)) of 0.824. Then, the AGB regression models were successfully developed by integrating vegetation indices and tree age. The simple ratio vegetation index (SR) is the best candidate of the commonly used vegetation indices for estimating forest AGB, and the forest AGB model was significantly improved using the combination of SR and tree age, with R (2) values from 0.50 to 0.727. Finally, the forest AGB images were mapped at eight epochs from 1985 to 2013 using SR and afforestation age. The total forest AGB in seven counties of Yulin District increased by 20.8 G kg, from 5.8 G kg in 1986 to 26.6 G kg in 2013, a total increase of 360 %. For the persistent forest area since 1974, the forest AGB density increased from 15.72 t/ha in 1986 to 44.53 t/ha in 2013, with an annual rate of about 0.98 t/ha. For the artificial forest planted after 1974, the AGB density increased about 1.03 t/ha a year from 1974 to 2013. The results present a noticeable carbon increment for the planted artificial forest in Yulin District over the last four decades.

  1. Estimation of time-delayed mutual information and bias for irregularly and sparsely sampled time-series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albers, D.J.; Hripcsak, George

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Time-delayed mutual information for irregularly sampled time-series. ► Estimation bias for the time-delayed mutual information calculation. ► Fast, simple, PDF estimator independent, time-delayed mutual information bias estimate. ► Quantification of data-set-size limits of the time-delayed mutual calculation. - Abstract: A method to estimate the time-dependent correlation via an empirical bias estimate of the time-delayed mutual information for a time-series is proposed. In particular, the bias of the time-delayed mutual information is shown to often be equivalent to the mutual information between two distributions of points from the same system separated by infinite time. Thus intuitively, estimation of the bias is reduced to estimation of the mutual information between distributions of data points separated by large time intervals. The proposed bias estimation techniques are shown to work for Lorenz equations data and glucose time series data of three patients from the Columbia University Medical Center database.

  2. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: Applications to active polygenetic volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Rosas, Ana Teresa; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando

    2008-09-01

    The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.

  3. Quirky patterns in time-series of estimates of recruitment could be artefacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dickey-Collas, M.; Hinzen, N.T.; Nash, R.D.M.

    2015-01-01

    of recruitment time-series in databases is therefore not consistent across or within species and stocks. Caution is therefore required as perhaps the characteristics of the time-series of stock dynamics may be determined by the model used to generate them, rather than underlying ecological phenomena......The accessibility of databases of global or regional stock assessment outputs is leading to an increase in meta-analysis of the dynamics of fish stocks. In most of these analyses, each of the time-series is generally assumed to be directly comparable. However, the approach to stock assessment...... employed, and the associated modelling assumptions, can have an important influence on the characteristics of each time-series. We explore this idea by investigating recruitment time-series with three different recruitment parameterizations: a stock–recruitment model, a random-walk time-series model...

  4. Anxiety as Related to Thinking and Forgetting. What Research Says to the Teacher Series, Number 30.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lighthall, Frederick F.

    The purpose of this pamphlet is to increase teachers' comprehension of anxiety and its relation to children's thinking and forgetting, to their problem solving ability and their sense of competence. The pamphlet describes four parts of the anxiety experience: 1) the anxiety cue, the particular thought, memory, or sensation which precipitates the…

  5. A Humanistic Approach to Performance-Based Teacher Education. PBTE Series No. 10.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, Paul

    Questions are reaised in making performance-based teacher education (PBTE) a more humanistic enterprise. A definition of the term "humanistic" could include such qualities as freedom, uniqueness, creativity, productivity, wholeness, responsibility, and social humanization. As to freedom, a humanistic approach to PBTE would encourage people to act…

  6. The Best of Works4Me: Winning Tips from Classroom Teachers. NEA Checklist Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Education Association, Washington, DC.

    This book presents a collection of tips focused around six themes. In "Teaching Techniques," teachers share ways in which they have increased their effectiveness and enhanced their interaction with students. "Content" provides methods of delivering art, science, reading, and other subjects in ways that will inspire and motivate…

  7. A Thousand Lights [and] A Thousand Lights: Teacher and Parent Guide. Brothers Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benton, Hope

    This book for children (ages 8 to 14) and the accompanying teacher/parent guide present the story of two brothers, one of whom has a severe hearing impairment, who climb up Mt. Fuji in Japan. Information on the disability is presented subtly and incidentally to encourage the reader to relate more personally and foster a deeper level of acceptance…

  8. Iranian Language Teachers' and Students' Perspectives on Top Notch Series (2nd Edition) at Intermediate Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azadsarv, Mehdi; Tahriri, Abdorreza

    2014-01-01

    As the means of transferring knowledge between teachers and students, coursebooks play a significant role in educational practices all over the world. Evaluation of coursebooks is also of great significance as it manages to a better understanding of the nature of a specific teaching/learning situation. The present study is an attempt to evaluate…

  9. Estimating return periods of extreme values from relatively short time series of winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonasson, Kristjan; Agustsson, Halfdan; Rognvaldsson, Olafur; Arfeuille, Gilles

    2013-04-01

    An important factor for determining the prospect of individual wind farm sites is the frequency of extreme winds at hub height. Here, extreme winds are defined as the value of the highest 10 minutes averaged wind speed with a 50 year return period, i.e. annual exceeding probability of 2% (Rodrigo, 2010). A frequently applied method to estimate winds in the lowest few hundred meters above ground is to extrapolate observed 10-meter winds logarithmically to higher altitudes. Recent study by Drechsel et al. (2012) showed however that this methodology is not as accurate as interpolating simulated results from the global ECMWF numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to the desired height. Observations of persistent low level jets near Colima in SW-Mexico also show that the logarithmic approach can give highly inaccurate results for some regions (Arfeuille et al., 2012). To address these shortcomings of limited, and/or poorly representative, observations and extrapolations of winds one can use NWP models to dynamically scale down relatively coarse resolution atmospheric analysis. In the case of limited computing resources one has typically to make a compromise between spatial resolution and the duration of the simulated period, both of which can limit the quality of the wind farm siting. A common method to estimate maximum winds is to fit an extreme value distribution (e.g. Gumbel, gev or Pareto) to the maximum values of each year of available data, or the tail of these values. If data are only available for a short period, e.g. 10 or 15 years, then this will give a rather inaccurate estimate. It is possible to deal with this problem by utilizing monthly or weekly maxima, but this introduces new problems: seasonal variation, autocorrelation of neighboring values, and increased discrepancy between data and fitted distribution. We introduce a new method to estimate return periods of extreme values of winds at hub height from relatively short time series of winds, simulated

  10. Time series GHG emission estimates for residential, commercial, agriculture and fisheries sectors in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, Riya Rachel

    2018-04-01

    Green House Gas (GHG) emissions are the major cause of global warming and climate change. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main GHG emitted through human activities, at the household level, by burning fuels for cooking and lighting. As per the 2006 methodology of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the energy sector is divided into various sectors like electricity generation, transport, fugitive, 'other' sectors, etc. The 'other' sectors under energy include residential, commercial, agriculture and fisheries. Time series GHG emission estimates were prepared for the residential, commercial, agriculture and fisheries sectors in India, for the time period 2005 to 2014, to understand the historical emission changes in 'other' sector. Sectoral activity data, with respect to fuel consumption, were collected from various ministry reports like Indian Petroleum and Natural Gas Statistics, Energy Statistics, etc. The default emission factor(s) from IPCC 2006 were used to calculate the emissions for each activity and sector-wise CO2, CH4, N2O and CO2e emissions were compiled. It was observed that the residential sector generates the highest GHG emissions, followed by the agriculture/fisheries and commercial sector. In the residential sector, LPG, kerosene, and fuelwood are the major contributors of emissions, whereas diesel is the main contributor to the commercial, agriculture and fisheries sectors. CO2e emissions have been observed to rise at a cumulative annual growth rate of 0.6%, 9.11%, 7.94% and 5.26% for the residential, commercial, agriculture and fisheries sectors, respectively. In addition to the above, a comparative study of the sectoral inventories from the national inventories, published by Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, for 2007 and 2010 was also performed.

  11. Estimating the Persistence and the Autocorrelation Function of a Time Series that is Measured with Error

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger

    2014-01-01

    An economic time series can often be viewed as a noisy proxy for an underlying economic variable. Measurement errors will influence the dynamic properties of the observed process and may conceal the persistence of the underlying time series. In this paper we develop instrumental variable (IV...

  12. Initial and final estimates of the Bilinear seasonal time series model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In getting the estimates of the parameters of this model special attention was paid to the problem of having good initial estimates as it is proposed that with good initial values of the parameters the estimates obtaining by the Newton-Raphson iterative technique usually not only converge but also are good estimates.

  13. Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Bootstrap Inference in Fractional Time Series Models with Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Taylor, Robert

    We consider the problem of conducting estimation and inference on the parameters of univariate heteroskedastic fractionally integrated time series models. We first extend existing results in the literature, developed for conditional sum-of squares estimators in the context of parametric fractional...... time series models driven by conditionally homoskedastic shocks, to allow for conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity both of a quite general and unknown form. Global consistency and asymptotic normality are shown to still obtain; however, the covariance matrix of the limiting distribution...... of the estimator now depends on nuisance parameters derived both from the weak dependence and heteroskedasticity present in the shocks. We then investigate classical methods of inference based on the Wald, likelihood ratio and Lagrange multiplier tests for linear hypotheses on either or both of the long and short...

  14. A method for the estimation of the significance of cross-correlations in unevenly sampled red-noise time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Max-Moerbeck, W.; Richards, J. L.; Hovatta, T.; Pavlidou, V.; Pearson, T. J.; Readhead, A. C. S.

    2014-11-01

    We present a practical implementation of a Monte Carlo method to estimate the significance of cross-correlations in unevenly sampled time series of data, whose statistical properties are modelled with a simple power-law power spectral density. This implementation builds on published methods; we introduce a number of improvements in the normalization of the cross-correlation function estimate and a bootstrap method for estimating the significance of the cross-correlations. A closely related matter is the estimation of a model for the light curves, which is critical for the significance estimates. We present a graphical and quantitative demonstration that uses simulations to show how common it is to get high cross-correlations for unrelated light curves with steep power spectral densities. This demonstration highlights the dangers of interpreting them as signs of a physical connection. We show that by using interpolation and the Hanning sampling window function we are able to reduce the effects of red-noise leakage and to recover steep simple power-law power spectral densities. We also introduce the use of a Neyman construction for the estimation of the errors in the power-law index of the power spectral density. This method provides a consistent way to estimate the significance of cross-correlations in unevenly sampled time series of data.

  15. Most probable dimension value and most flat interval methods for automatic estimation of dimension from time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corana, A.; Bortolan, G.; Casaleggio, A.

    2004-01-01

    We present and compare two automatic methods for dimension estimation from time series. Both methods, based on conceptually different approaches, work on the derivative of the bi-logarithmic plot of the correlation integral versus the correlation length (log-log plot). The first method searches for the most probable dimension values (MPDV) and associates to each of them a possible scaling region. The second one searches for the most flat intervals (MFI) in the derivative of the log-log plot. The automatic procedures include the evaluation of the candidate scaling regions using two reliability indices. The data set used to test the methods consists of time series from known model attractors with and without the addition of noise, structured time series, and electrocardiographic signals from the MIT-BIH ECG database. Statistical analysis of results was carried out by means of paired t-test, and no statistically significant differences were found in the large majority of the trials. Consistent results are also obtained dealing with 'difficult' time series. In general for a more robust and reliable estimate, the use of both methods may represent a good solution when time series from complex systems are analyzed. Although we present results for the correlation dimension only, the procedures can also be used for the automatic estimation of generalized q-order dimensions and pointwise dimension. We think that the proposed methods, eliminating the need of operator intervention, allow a faster and more objective analysis, thus improving the usefulness of dimension analysis for the characterization of time series obtained from complex dynamical systems

  16. Improving Teachers' Knowledge of Functional Assessment-Based Interventions: Outcomes of a Professional Development Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Kathleen Lynne; Oakes, Wendy Peia; Powers, Lisa; Diebold, Tricia; Germer, Kathryn; Common, Eric A.; Brunsting, Nelson

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides outcomes of a study examining the effectiveness of a year-long professional development training series designed to support in-service educators in learning a systematic approach to functional assessment-based interventions developed by Umbreit and colleagues (2007) that has met with demonstrated success when implemented with…

  17. Nonparametric trend estimation in the presence of fractal noise: application to fMRI time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshinpour, Babak; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

    2008-06-30

    Unknown low frequency fluctuations called "trend" are observed in noisy time-series measured for different applications. In some disciplines, they carry primary information while in other fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) they carry nuisance effects. In all cases, however, it is necessary to estimate them accurately. In this paper, a method for estimating trend in the presence of fractal noise is proposed and applied to fMRI time-series. To this end, a partly linear model (PLM) is fitted to each time-series. The parametric and nonparametric parts of PLM are considered as contributions of hemodynamic response and trend, respectively. Using the whitening property of wavelet transform, the unknown components of the model are estimated in the wavelet domain. The results of the proposed method are compared to those of other parametric trend-removal approaches such as spline and polynomial models. It is shown that the proposed method improves activation detection and decreases variance of the estimated parameters relative to the other methods.

  18. Online Reliable Peak Charge/Discharge Power Estimation of Series-Connected Lithium-Ion Battery Packs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Jiang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The accurate peak power estimation of a battery pack is essential to the power-train control of electric vehicles (EVs. It helps to evaluate the maximum charge and discharge capability of the battery system, and thus to optimally control the power-train system to meet the requirement of acceleration, gradient climbing and regenerative braking while achieving a high energy efficiency. A novel online peak power estimation method for series-connected lithium-ion battery packs is proposed, which considers the influence of cell difference on the peak power of the battery packs. A new parameter identification algorithm based on adaptive ratio vectors is designed to online identify the parameters of each individual cell in a series-connected battery pack. The ratio vectors reflecting cell difference are deduced strictly based on the analysis of battery characteristics. Based on the online parameter identification, the peak power estimation considering cell difference is further developed. Some validation experiments in different battery aging conditions and with different current profiles have been implemented to verify the proposed method. The results indicate that the ratio vector-based identification algorithm can achieve the same accuracy as the repetitive RLS (recursive least squares based identification while evidently reducing the computation cost, and the proposed peak power estimation method is more effective and reliable for series-connected battery packs due to the consideration of cell difference.

  19. Preparacion e Iniciacion de la Lectura en Espanol para Maestros de Programas Bilingues. Serie Tierra de Encanto (Preparation and Initiation of Reading in Spanish for Teachers of Bilingual Programs. Land of Enchantment Series).

    Science.gov (United States)

    New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque.

    Part of the "Land of Enchantment" series of instructional materials, this very detailed teaching manual is designed to help teachers in bilingual programs prepare students to read Spanish. It contains suggestions for developing reading readiness skills and ways to teach a basic 30-word reading vocabulary. The reading program follows five steps:…

  20. Finite mixture model: A maximum likelihood estimation approach on time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Phoong Seuk; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Hamzah, Firdaus Mohamad

    2014-09-01

    Recently, statistician emphasized on the fitting of finite mixture model by using maximum likelihood estimation as it provides asymptotic properties. In addition, it shows consistency properties as the sample sizes increases to infinity. This illustrated that maximum likelihood estimation is an unbiased estimator. Moreover, the estimate parameters obtained from the application of maximum likelihood estimation have smallest variance as compared to others statistical method as the sample sizes increases. Thus, maximum likelihood estimation is adopted in this paper to fit the two-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and exchange rate for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and exchange rate for all selected countries.

  1. Photovoltaic module diagnostics by series resistance monitoring and temperature and rated power estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sera, Dezso; Teodorescu, Remus; Rodriguez, Pedro

    2008-01-01

    One of the most important parameters, which characterize a photovoltaic panel health state, is its series resistance. An increase of this normally indicates bad contacts between cells or panels. Another important property, which characterizes the aging of the panel is the reduction of its MPP power...

  2. Bayes estimates of Markov trends in possibly cointegrated series: an application to US consumption and income

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractStylized facts show that average growth rates of US per capita consumption and income differ in recession and expansion periods. Since a linear combination of such series does not have to be a constant mean process, standard cointegration analysis between the variables to examine the

  3. A Unified Framework for Estimating Minimum Detectable Effects for Comparative Short Interrupted Time Series Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Cristofer; Unlu, Fatih

    2014-01-01

    The Comparative Short Interrupted Time Series (C-SITS) design is a frequently employed quasi-experimental method, in which the pre- and post-intervention changes observed in the outcome levels of a treatment group is compared with those of a comparison group where the difference between the former and the latter is attributed to the treatment. The…

  4. Time-Series Adaptive Estimation of Vaccination Uptake Using Web Search Queries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalum Hansen, Niels; Mølbak, Kåre; Cox, Ingemar J.

    2017-01-01

    Estimating vaccination uptake is an integral part of ensuring public health. It was recently shown that vaccination uptake can be estimated automatically from web data, instead of slowly collected clinical records or population surveys [2]. All prior work in this area assumes that features of vac...

  5. Estimating the Entropy of Binary Time Series: Methodology, Some Theory and a Simulation Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elie Bienenstock

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Partly motivated by entropy-estimation problems in neuroscience, we present a detailed and extensive comparison between some of the most popular and effective entropy estimation methods used in practice: The plug-in method, four different estimators based on the Lempel-Ziv (LZ family of data compression algorithms, an estimator based on the Context-Tree Weighting (CTW method, and the renewal entropy estimator. METHODOLOGY: Three new entropy estimators are introduced; two new LZ-based estimators, and the “renewal entropy estimator,” which is tailored to data generated by a binary renewal process. For two of the four LZ-based estimators, a bootstrap procedure is described for evaluating their standard error, and a practical rule of thumb is heuristically derived for selecting the values of their parameters in practice. THEORY: We prove that, unlike their earlier versions, the two new LZ-based estimators are universally consistent, that is, they converge to the entropy rate for every finite-valued, stationary and ergodic process. An effective method is derived for the accurate approximation of the entropy rate of a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM with known distribution. Heuristic calculations are presented and approximate formulas are derived for evaluating the bias and the standard error of each estimator. SIMULATION: All estimators are applied to a wide range of data generated by numerous different processes with varying degrees of dependence and memory. The main conclusions drawn from these experiments include: (i For all estimators considered, the main source of error is the bias. (ii The CTW method is repeatedly and consistently seen to provide the most accurate results. (iii The performance of the LZ-based estimators is often comparable to that of the plug-in method. (iv The main drawback of the plug-in method is its computational inefficiency; with small word-lengths it fails to detect longer-range structure in

  6. Phase correction and error estimation in InSAR time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Fattahi, H.; Amelung, F.

    2017-12-01

    During the last decade several InSAR time series approaches have been developed in response to the non-idea acquisition strategy of SAR satellites, such as large spatial and temporal baseline with non-regular acquisitions. The small baseline tubes and regular acquisitions of new SAR satellites such as Sentinel-1 allows us to form fully connected networks of interferograms and simplifies the time series analysis into a weighted least square inversion of an over-determined system. Such robust inversion allows us to focus more on the understanding of different components in InSAR time-series and its uncertainties. We present an open-source python-based package for InSAR time series analysis, called PySAR (https://yunjunz.github.io/PySAR/), with unique functionalities for obtaining unbiased ground displacement time-series, geometrical and atmospheric correction of InSAR data and quantifying the InSAR uncertainty. Our implemented strategy contains several features including: 1) improved spatial coverage using coherence-based network of interferograms, 2) unwrapping error correction using phase closure or bridging, 3) tropospheric delay correction using weather models and empirical approaches, 4) DEM error correction, 5) optimal selection of reference date and automatic outlier detection, 6) InSAR uncertainty due to the residual tropospheric delay, decorrelation and residual DEM error, and 7) variance-covariance matrix of final products for geodetic inversion. We demonstrate the performance using SAR datasets acquired by Cosmo-Skymed and TerraSAR-X, Sentinel-1 and ALOS/ALOS-2, with application on the highly non-linear volcanic deformation in Japan and Ecuador (figure 1). Our result shows precursory deformation before the 2015 eruptions of Cotopaxi volcano, with a maximum uplift of 3.4 cm on the western flank (fig. 1b), with a standard deviation of 0.9 cm (fig. 1a), supporting the finding by Morales-Rivera et al. (2017, GRL); and a post-eruptive subsidence on the same

  7. Solutions for the diurnally forced advection-diffusion equation to estimate bulk fluid velocity and diffusivity in streambeds from temperature time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles H. Luce; Daniele Tonina; Frank Gariglio; Ralph Applebee

    2013-01-01

    Work over the last decade has documented methods for estimating fluxes between streams and streambeds from time series of temperature at two depths in the streambed. We present substantial extension to the existing theory and practice of using temperature time series to estimate streambed water fluxes and thermal properties, including (1) a new explicit analytical...

  8. Advanced methods for modeling water-levels and estimating drawdowns with SeriesSEE, an Excel add-in

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halford, Keith; Garcia, C. Amanda; Fenelon, Joe; Mirus, Benjamin B.

    2012-12-21

    Water-level modeling is used for multiple-well aquifer tests to reliably differentiate pumping responses from natural water-level changes in wells, or “environmental fluctuations.” Synthetic water levels are created during water-level modeling and represent the summation of multiple component fluctuations, including those caused by environmental forcing and pumping. Pumping signals are modeled by transforming step-wise pumping records into water-level changes by using superimposed Theis functions. Water-levels can be modeled robustly with this Theis-transform approach because environmental fluctuations and pumping signals are simulated simultaneously. Water-level modeling with Theis transforms has been implemented in the program SeriesSEE, which is a Microsoft® Excel add-in. Moving average, Theis, pneumatic-lag, and gamma functions transform time series of measured values into water-level model components in SeriesSEE. Earth tides and step transforms are additional computed water-level model components. Water-level models are calibrated by minimizing a sum-of-squares objective function where singular value decomposition and Tikhonov regularization stabilize results. Drawdown estimates from a water-level model are the summation of all Theis transforms minus residual differences between synthetic and measured water levels. The accuracy of drawdown estimates is limited primarily by noise in the data sets, not the Theis-transform approach. Drawdowns much smaller than environmental fluctuations have been detected across major fault structures, at distances of more than 1 mile from the pumping well, and with limited pre-pumping and recovery data at sites across the United States. In addition to water-level modeling, utilities exist in SeriesSEE for viewing, cleaning, manipulating, and analyzing time-series data.

  9. La ciencia en la vida actual. Volumen II. Edicion para el maestro (Science in Everyday Life. Volume II. Teacher Edition). Applied Basic Curriculum Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evaluation, Dissemination and Assessment Center, Dallas.

    This guide, the second in a series of three, provides the Spanish-speaking intermediate science student and teacher an opportunity to review selected science concepts and processes through activities which emphasize the applicability of scientific knowledge in the professional world. This guide is divided into three components. The first component…

  10. La ciencia en la vida actual. Volumen I. Edicion para el maestro (Science in Everyday Life. Volume I. Teacher Edition). Applied Basic Curriculum Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evaluation, Dissemination and Assessment Center, Dallas.

    This guide, the first in a series of three, provides the Spanish-speaking intermediate science student and teacher an opportunity to review selected science concepts and processes through activities which emphasize the applicability of scientific knowledge in the professional world. The three components in this guide deal with (1) ecology (what…

  11. La ciencia en la vida actual. Volumen III. Edicion para el maestro (Science in Everyday Life. Volume III. Teacher Edition). Applied Basic Curriculum Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evaluation, Dissemination and Assessment Center, Dallas.

    This guide, the third in a series of three, provides the Spanish-speaking intermediate science student and teacher an opportunity to review selected science concepts and processes through activities which emphasize the applicability of scientific knowledge in the professional world. The three components in this guide deal with (1) the scientific…

  12. Classification of Living Things. A Teacher's Manual for General Level Program Development. Grades 7 and 8. Science and Society Teaching Units. Informal Series/55.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Douglas A.; And Others

    This manual is one of a series designed to assist junior high school teachers in developing general level or non-academic science programs which focus on the relationship between science and society. Although designed primarily for grades 7 and 8, the content is also suitable for students in grade 6. The major portion of the manual consists of six…

  13. Teacher Resource Book for Population Pressure in Indonesia, Problems of Industrialization in Eurasia, Power Blocs in Eurasia. Man on the Earth Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Angus

    This teacher's resource book is a guide to three intermediate texts about Eurasia entitled Population Pressure in Indonesia, Problems of Industrialization in Eurasia, and Power Blocs in Eurasia. The texts are part of the series, Man on the Earth, which probes broad-based issues confronting mankind. The resource book distinguishes 18 major concepts…

  14. Estimating a Smooth Common Transfer Function with a Panel of Time Series - Inflow of Larvae Cod as an Example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Hansen

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} The annual response variable in an ecological monitoring study often relates linearly to the weighted cumulative effect of some daily covariate, after adjusting for other annual covariates. Here we consider the problem of non-parametrically estimating the weights involved in computing the aforementioned cumulative effect, with a panel of short and contemporaneously correlated time series whose responses share the common cumulative effect of a daily covariate. The sequence of (unknown daily weights constitutes the so-called transfer function. Specifically, we consider the problem of estimating a smooth common transfer function shared by a panel of short time series that are contemporaneously correlated. We propose an estimation scheme using a likelihood approach that penalizes the roughness of the common transfer function. We illustrate the proposed method with a simulation study and a biological example of indirectly estimating the spawning date distribution of North Sea cod.

  15. EGARCH: un modelo asimétrico para estimar la volatilidad de series financieras EGARCH: a model to estimate the asymmetric volatility of financial series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horacio Fernández Castaño

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available En la modelación de las volatilidades con cambios súbitos, es imperativo usar modelos que permitan describir y analizar el dinamismo de la volatilidad, ya que los inversionistas, entre otras cosas, pueden estar interesados en estimar la tasa de retorno y la volatilidad de un instrumento financiero u otros derivados, sólo durante el período de tenencia. En este artículo, que constituye la primera de dos entregas, se hace una evaluación del modelo asimétrico EGARCH que resulta ser muy útil para estudiar la dinámica del Índice General de la Bolsa de valores de Colombia (IGBC y de su volatilidad, pues inicia haciendo una breve revisión del modelo GARCH, resaltando su importancia en la modelación de series de tiempo financieras, e identificando sus debilidades en cuanto a su propiedad de simetría para las distribuciones de colas gruesas y que pueden generar errores de pronóstico. Luego se muestra la importancia del modelo EGARCH para la modelación de algunos hechos que no se logran capturar con los modelos GARCHIn the modeling of volatility with rapid changes, it is imperative to use models to describe and analyze the dynamics of volatility, as investors, among other things, may be interested in estimating the rate of return and volatility of an instrument financial or other derivatives, only during the holding period. This article contains an evaluation of asymmetric EGARCH model that proves to be very useful to study the dynamics of the General Index of the Stock Exchange of Colombia (IGBC and its volatility, since, as will be shown, the results suggest they could be more useful for capture the stylized facts of the Colombian market behavior. It is really significant to evidence the importance of asymmetric models to estimate the volatility of financial series is intended here as a model for identifying, in the best way to estimate the volatility of daily returns of the IGBC.

  16. Healthcare Coinsurance Elasticity Coefficient Estimation Using Monthly Cross-sectional, Time-series Claims Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scoggins, John F; Weinberg, Daniel A

    2017-06-01

    Published estimates of the healthcare coinsurance elasticity coefficient have typically relied on annual observations of individual healthcare expenditures even though health plan membership and expenditures are traditionally reported in monthly units and several studies have stressed the need for demand models to recognize the episodic nature of healthcare. Summing individual healthcare expenditures into annual observations complicates two common challenges of statistical inference, heteroscedasticity, and regressor endogeneity. This paper estimates the elasticity coefficient using a monthly panel data model that addresses the heteroscedasticity and endogeneity problems with relative ease. Healthcare claims data from employees of King County, Washington, during 2005 to 2011 were used to estimate the mean point elasticity coefficient: -0.314 (0.015 standard error) to -0.145 (0.015 standard error) depending on model specification. These estimates bracket the -0.2 point estimate (range: -0.22 to -0.17) derived from the famous Rand Health Insurance Experiment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Estimation of viscoelastic parameters in Prony series from shear wave propagation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Jae-Wook; Hong, Jung-Wuk, E-mail: j.hong@kaist.ac.kr, E-mail: jwhong@alum.mit.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, KAIST, 291 Deahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Hyoung-Ki; Choi, Kiwan [Health and Medical Equipment, Samsung Electronics, 1003 Daechi-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul 135-280 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-06-21

    When acquiring accurate ultrasonic images, we must precisely estimate the mechanical properties of the soft tissue. This study investigates and estimates the viscoelastic properties of the tissue by analyzing shear waves generated through an acoustic radiation force. The shear waves are sourced from a localized pushing force acting for a certain duration, and the generated waves travel horizontally. The wave velocities depend on the mechanical properties of the tissue such as the shear modulus and viscoelastic properties; therefore, we can inversely calculate the properties of the tissue through parametric studies.

  18. The Biasing Effects of Unmodeled ARMA Time Series Processes on Latent Growth Curve Model Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivo, Stephen; Fan, Xitao; Witta, Lea

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the robustness of estimated growth curve models when there is stationary autocorrelation among manifest variable errors. The results suggest that when, in practice, growth curve models are fitted to longitudinal data, alternative rival hypotheses to consider would include growth models that also specify…

  19. Estimating stock parameters from trawl cpue-at-age series using year-class curves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cotter, A.J.R.; Mesnil, B.; Piet, G.J.

    2007-01-01

    A year-class curve is a plot of log cpue (catch per unit effort) over age for a single year class of a species (in contrast to the better known catch curve, fitted to multiple year classes at one time). When linear, the intercept and slope estimate the log cpue at age 0 and the average rate of total

  20. Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Generalized Long-Memory Time Series Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mesters, G.; Koopman, S.J.; Ooms, M.

    2016-01-01

    An exact maximum likelihood method is developed for the estimation of parameters in a non-Gaussian nonlinear density function that depends on a latent Gaussian dynamic process with long-memory properties. Our method relies on the method of importance sampling and on a linear Gaussian approximating

  1. Design of Passive Power Filter for Hybrid Series Active Power Filter using Estimation, Detection and Classification Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, Sushree Diptimayee; Ray, Pravat Kumar; Mohanty, K. B.

    2016-06-01

    This research paper discover the design of a shunt Passive Power Filter (PPF) in Hybrid Series Active Power Filter (HSAPF) that employs a novel analytic methodology which is superior than FFT analysis. This novel approach consists of the estimation, detection and classification of the signals. The proposed method is applied to estimate, detect and classify the power quality (PQ) disturbance such as harmonics. This proposed work deals with three methods: the harmonic detection through wavelet transform method, the harmonic estimation by Kalman Filter algorithm and harmonic classification by decision tree method. From different type of mother wavelets in wavelet transform method, the db8 is selected as suitable mother wavelet because of its potency on transient response and crouched oscillation at frequency domain. In harmonic compensation process, the detected harmonic is compensated through Hybrid Series Active Power Filter (HSAPF) based on Instantaneous Reactive Power Theory (IRPT). The efficacy of the proposed method is verified in MATLAB/SIMULINK domain and as well as with an experimental set up. The obtained results confirm the superiority of the proposed methodology than FFT analysis. This newly proposed PPF is used to make the conventional HSAPF more robust and stable.

  2. Glacier Volume Change Estimation Using Time Series of Improved Aster Dems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girod, Luc; Nuth, Christopher; Kääb, Andreas

    2016-06-01

    Volume change data is critical to the understanding of glacier response to climate change. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) system embarked on the Terra (EOS AM-1) satellite has been a unique source of systematic stereoscopic images covering the whole globe at 15m resolution and at a consistent quality for over 15 years. While satellite stereo sensors with significantly improved radiometric and spatial resolution are available to date, the potential of ASTER data lies in its long consistent time series that is unrivaled, though not fully exploited for change analysis due to lack of data accuracy and precision. Here, we developed an improved method for ASTER DEM generation and implemented it in the open source photogrammetric library and software suite MicMac. The method relies on the computation of a rational polynomial coefficients (RPC) model and the detection and correction of cross-track sensor jitter in order to compute DEMs. ASTER data are strongly affected by attitude jitter, mainly of approximately 4 km and 30 km wavelength, and improving the generation of ASTER DEMs requires removal of this effect. Our sensor modeling does not require ground control points and allows thus potentially for the automatic processing of large data volumes. As a proof of concept, we chose a set of glaciers with reference DEMs available to assess the quality of our measurements. We use time series of ASTER scenes from which we extracted DEMs with a ground sampling distance of 15m. Our method directly measures and accounts for the cross-track component of jitter so that the resulting DEMs are not contaminated by this process. Since the along-track component of jitter has the same direction as the stereo parallaxes, the two cannot be separated and the elevations extracted are thus contaminated by along-track jitter. Initial tests reveal no clear relation between the cross-track and along-track components so that the latter seems not to be

  3. GLACIER VOLUME CHANGE ESTIMATION USING TIME SERIES OF IMPROVED ASTER DEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Girod

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Volume change data is critical to the understanding of glacier response to climate change. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER system embarked on the Terra (EOS AM-1 satellite has been a unique source of systematic stereoscopic images covering the whole globe at 15m resolution and at a consistent quality for over 15 years. While satellite stereo sensors with significantly improved radiometric and spatial resolution are available to date, the potential of ASTER data lies in its long consistent time series that is unrivaled, though not fully exploited for change analysis due to lack of data accuracy and precision. Here, we developed an improved method for ASTER DEM generation and implemented it in the open source photogrammetric library and software suite MicMac. The method relies on the computation of a rational polynomial coefficients (RPC model and the detection and correction of cross-track sensor jitter in order to compute DEMs. ASTER data are strongly affected by attitude jitter, mainly of approximately 4 km and 30 km wavelength, and improving the generation of ASTER DEMs requires removal of this effect. Our sensor modeling does not require ground control points and allows thus potentially for the automatic processing of large data volumes. As a proof of concept, we chose a set of glaciers with reference DEMs available to assess the quality of our measurements. We use time series of ASTER scenes from which we extracted DEMs with a ground sampling distance of 15m. Our method directly measures and accounts for the cross-track component of jitter so that the resulting DEMs are not contaminated by this process. Since the along-track component of jitter has the same direction as the stereo parallaxes, the two cannot be separated and the elevations extracted are thus contaminated by along-track jitter. Initial tests reveal no clear relation between the cross-track and along-track components so that the latter

  4. Estimating Unbiased Land Cover Change Areas In The Colombian Amazon Using Landsat Time Series And Statistical Inference Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arevalo, P. A.; Olofsson, P.; Woodcock, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    Unbiased estimation of the areas of conversion between land categories ("activity data") and their uncertainty is crucial for providing more robust calculations of carbon emissions to the atmosphere, as well as their removals. This is particularly important for the REDD+ mechanism of UNFCCC where an economic compensation is tied to the magnitude and direction of such fluxes. Dense time series of Landsat data and statistical protocols are becoming an integral part of forest monitoring efforts, but there are relatively few studies in the tropics focused on using these methods to advance operational MRV systems (Monitoring, Reporting and Verification). We present the results of a prototype methodology for continuous monitoring and unbiased estimation of activity data that is compliant with the IPCC Approach 3 for representation of land. We used a break detection algorithm (Continuous Change Detection and Classification, CCDC) to fit pixel-level temporal segments to time series of Landsat data in the Colombian Amazon. The segments were classified using a Random Forest classifier to obtain annual maps of land categories between 2001 and 2016. Using these maps, a biannual stratified sampling approach was implemented and unbiased stratified estimators constructed to calculate area estimates with confidence intervals for each of the stable and change classes. Our results provide evidence of a decrease in primary forest as a result of conversion to pastures, as well as increase in secondary forest as pastures are abandoned and the forest allowed to regenerate. Estimating areas of other land transitions proved challenging because of their very small mapped areas compared to stable classes like forest, which corresponds to almost 90% of the study area. Implications on remote sensing data processing, sample allocation and uncertainty reduction are also discussed.

  5. Parameter estimation methods for gene circuit modeling from time-series mRNA data: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Ming; Kuwahara, Hiroyuki; Wang, Xiaolei; Wang, Suojin; Gao, Xin

    2015-11-01

    Parameter estimation is a challenging computational problem in the reverse engineering of biological systems. Because advances in biotechnology have facilitated wide availability of time-series gene expression data, systematic parameter estimation of gene circuit models from such time-series mRNA data has become an important method for quantitatively dissecting the regulation of gene expression. By focusing on the modeling of gene circuits, we examine here the performance of three types of state-of-the-art parameter estimation methods: population-based methods, online methods and model-decomposition-based methods. Our results show that certain population-based methods are able to generate high-quality parameter solutions. The performance of these methods, however, is heavily dependent on the size of the parameter search space, and their computational requirements substantially increase as the size of the search space increases. In comparison, online methods and model decomposition-based methods are computationally faster alternatives and are less dependent on the size of the search space. Among other things, our results show that a hybrid approach that augments computationally fast methods with local search as a subsequent refinement procedure can substantially increase the quality of their parameter estimates to the level on par with the best solution obtained from the population-based methods while maintaining high computational speed. These suggest that such hybrid methods can be a promising alternative to the more commonly used population-based methods for parameter estimation of gene circuit models when limited prior knowledge about the underlying regulatory mechanisms makes the size of the parameter search space vastly large. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. MODIS-derived EVI, NDVI and WDRVI time series to estimate phenological metrics in French deciduous forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Testa, S.; Soudani, K.; Boschetti, L.; Borgogno Mondino, E.

    2018-02-01

    Monitoring forest phenology allows us to study the effects of climate change on vegetated land surfaces. Daily and composite time series (TS) of several vegetation indices (VIs) from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data have been widely used in scientific works for phenological studies since the beginning of the MODIS mission. The objective of this work was to use MODIS data to find the best VI/TS combination to estimate start-of-season (SOS) and end-of-season (EOS) dates across 50 temperate deciduous forests. Our research used as inputs 2001-2012 daily reflectance from MOD09GQ/MOD09GA products and 16-day composite VIs from the MOD13Q1 dataset. The 50 pixels centered on the 50 forest plots were extracted from the above-mentioned MODIS imagery; we then generated 5 different types of TS (1 daily from MOD09 and 4 composite from MOD13Q1) and used all of them to implement 6 VIs, obtaining 30 VI/TS combinations. SOS and EOS estimates were determined for each pixel/year and each VI/TS combination. SOS/EOS estimations were then validated against ground phenological observations. Results showed that, in our test areas, composite TS, if actual acquisition date is considered, performed mostly better than daily TS. EVI, WDRVI0.20 and NDVI were more suitable to SOS estimation, while WDRVI0.05 and EVI were more convenient in estimating early and advanced EOS, respectively.

  7. Estimating sediment and caesium-137 fluxes in the Ribble Estuary through time-series airborne remote sensing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakefield, R.; Tyler, A.N.; McDonald, P.; Atkin, P.A.; Gleizon, P.; Gilvear, D.

    2011-01-01

    High spatial and temporal resolution airborne imagery were acquired for the Ribble Estuary, North West England in 1997 and 2003, to assess the application of time-series airborne remote sensing to quantify total suspended sediment and radionuclide fluxes during a flood and ebb tide sequence. Concomitant measurements of suspended particulate matter (SPM) and water column turbidity were obtained during the time-series image acquisition for the flood and ebb tide sequence on the 17th July 2003 to verify the assumption of a vertically well mixed estuary and thus justifying the vertical extrapolation of spatially integrated estimate of surface SPM. The 137 Cs activity concentrations were calculated from a relatively stable relationship between SPM and 137 Cs for the Ribble Estuary. Total estuary wide budgets of sediment and 137 Cs were obtained by combining the image-derived estimates of surface SPM and 137 Cs with estimates of water volume from a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model (VERSE) developed for the Ribble Estuary. These indicate that around 10,000 tonnes of sediment and 2.72 GBq of 137 Cs were deposited over the tidal sequence monitored in July 2003. This compared favourably with bed height elevation change estimated from field work. An uncertainty analysis on the total sediment and 137 Cs flux yielded a total budget of the order of 40% on the final estimate. The results represent a novel approach to providing a spatially integrated estimate of the total net sediment and radionuclide flux in an intertidal environment over a flood and ebb tide sequence. - Research highlights: → This paper provides a rare insight into the next flux of sediment and associated radionuclide loading into an estuary over and ebb and flood tide sequence. → The paper uses high temporal resolution airborne imagery coupled with concomitant sampling to convert total suspended sediment flux to 137 Cs loading. → For the estuary and date studied, it is estimate that an 10,000 tonnes of

  8. Parameter estimation methods for gene circuit modeling from time-series mRNA data: a comparative study

    KAUST Repository

    Fan, M.

    2015-03-29

    Parameter estimation is a challenging computational problemin the reverse engineering of biological systems. Because advances in biotechnology have facilitated wide availability of time-series gene expression data, systematic parameter esti- mation of gene circuitmodels fromsuch time-series mRNA data has become an importantmethod for quantitatively dissecting the regulation of gene expression. By focusing on themodeling of gene circuits, we examine here the perform- ance of three types of state-of-the-art parameter estimation methods: population-basedmethods, onlinemethods and model-decomposition-basedmethods. Our results show that certain population-basedmethods are able to generate high- quality parameter solutions. The performance of thesemethods, however, is heavily dependent on the size of the param- eter search space, and their computational requirements substantially increase as the size of the search space increases. In comparison, onlinemethods andmodel decomposition-basedmethods are computationally faster alternatives and are less dependent on the size of the search space. Among other things, our results show that a hybrid approach that augments computationally fastmethods with local search as a subsequent refinement procedure can substantially increase the qual- ity of their parameter estimates to the level on par with the best solution obtained fromthe population-basedmethods whilemaintaining high computational speed. These suggest that such hybridmethods can be a promising alternative to themore commonly used population-basedmethods for parameter estimation of gene circuit models when limited prior knowledge about the underlying regulatorymechanismsmakes the size of the parameter search space vastly large. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

  9. A new time-series methodology for estimating relationships between elderly frailty, remaining life expectancy, and ambient air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Christian J; Lipfert, Frederick W

    2012-01-01

    Many publications estimate short-term air pollution-mortality risks, but few estimate the associated changes in life-expectancies. We present a new methodology for analyzing time series of health effects, in which prior frailty is assumed to precede short-term elderly nontraumatic mortality. The model is based on a subpopulation of frail individuals whose entries and exits (deaths) are functions of daily and lagged environmental conditions: ambient temperature/season, airborne particles, and ozone. This frail susceptible population is unknown; its fluctuations cannot be observed but are estimated using maximum-likelihood methods with the Kalman filter. We used an existing 14-y set of daily data to illustrate the model and then tested the assumption of prior frailty with a new generalized model that estimates the portion of the daily death count allocated to nonfrail individuals. In this demonstration dataset, new entries into the high-risk pool are associated with lower ambient temperatures and higher concentrations of particulate matter and ozone. Accounting for these effects on antecedent frailty reduces this at-risk population, yielding frail life expectancies of 5-7 days. Associations between environmental factors and entries to the at-risk pool are about twice as strong as for mortality. Nonfrail elderly deaths are seen to make only small contributions. This new model predicts a small short-lived frail population-at-risk that is stable over a wide range of environmental conditions. The predicted effects of pollution on new entries and deaths are robust and consistent with conventional morbidity/mortality times-series studies. We recommend model verification using other suitable datasets.

  10. Estimation of Dusty Days Using the Model of Time Series: A Case Study of Hormozgan Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Farahi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Dust storm is one of the climatic hazards in the arid and semi-arid regions. Southern Iran with its hot and dry climate is more likely affected by the adverse consequences of dust storms due to the proximity to the dusty deserts of Saudi Arabia and Iraq, on one hand, and the synoptic situation for the occurrence of the dust storms in the Persian Gulf, on the other hand. In this study, the frequency of dusty days in Hormozgan Province was investigated and predicted. To this end, data were collected from the three synoptic stations in Bandar Abbas, Bandar Lengeh and Bandar-e Jask from the Iran Meteorological Organization during the statistical period of 1968-2008. Then, using the non-seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q, were analyzed in 16Minitab and the frequency of the dusty days in the region were predicted. Results of the study show that the ARIMA (1, 1, 1noc was the most appropriate pattern for predicting the frequency of dusty days in Hormozgan Province. The results showed that the predictions for Bandar-e Jask, compared to those of Bandar Abbas and Bandar Lengeh are more accurate in terms of continuous increasing trend and the interval stability of the time series prediction and the smaller difference between the observed values with the predicted values.

  11. Stuttering, induced fluency, and natural fluency: a hierarchical series of activation likelihood estimation meta-analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budde, Kristin S; Barron, Daniel S; Fox, Peter T

    2014-12-01

    Developmental stuttering is a speech disorder most likely due to a heritable form of developmental dysmyelination impairing the function of the speech-motor system. Speech-induced brain-activation patterns in persons who stutter (PWS) are anomalous in various ways; the consistency of these aberrant patterns is a matter of ongoing debate. Here, we present a hierarchical series of coordinate-based meta-analyses addressing this issue. Two tiers of meta-analyses were performed on a 17-paper dataset (202 PWS; 167 fluent controls). Four large-scale (top-tier) meta-analyses were performed, two for each subject group (PWS and controls). These analyses robustly confirmed the regional effects previously postulated as "neural signatures of stuttering" (Brown, Ingham, Ingham, Laird, & Fox, 2005) and extended this designation to additional regions. Two smaller-scale (lower-tier) meta-analyses refined the interpretation of the large-scale analyses: (1) a between-group contrast targeting differences between PWS and controls (stuttering trait); and (2) a within-group contrast (PWS only) of stuttering with induced fluency (stuttering state). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Becoming a Reflective Mathematics Teacher: A Guide for Observations and Self-Assessment. Studies in Mathematical Thinking and Learning Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artzt, Alice F.; Armour-Thomas, Eleanor

    This activity-oriented book for preservice mathematics teachers who are taking methods courses or who have been student teaching offers a framework for teacher reflection and self- assessment. It supplies detailed observation instruments for observing other teachers, reflective activities, and guidelines and instruments for supervisors. There are…

  13. A probabilistic method for the estimation of ocean surface currents from short time series of HF radar data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guérin, Charles-Antoine; Grilli, Stéphan T.

    2018-01-01

    We present a new method for inverting ocean surface currents from beam-forming HF radar data. In contrast with the classical method, which inverts radial currents based on shifts of the main Bragg line in the radar Doppler spectrum, the method works in the temporal domain and inverts currents from the amplitude modulation of the I and Q radar time series. Based on this principle, we propose a Maximum Likelihood approach, which can be combined with a Bayesian inference method assuming a prior current distribution, to infer values of the radial surface currents. We assess the method performance by using synthetic radar signal as well as field data, and systematically comparing results with those of the Doppler method. The new method is found advantageous for its robustness to noise at long range, its ability to accommodate shorter time series, and the possibility to use a priori information to improve the estimates. Limitations are related to current sign errors at far-ranges and biased estimates for small current values and very short samples. We apply the new technique to a data set from a typical 13.5 MHz WERA radar, acquired off of Vancouver Island, BC, and show that it can potentially improve standard synoptic current mapping.

  14. Time series of low-degree geopotential coefficients from SLR data: estimation of Earth's figure axis and LOD variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luceri, V.; Sciarretta, C.; Bianco, G.

    2012-12-01

    The redistribution of the mass within the earth system induces changes in the Earth's gravity field. In particular, the second-degree geopotential coefficients reflect the behaviour of the Earth's inertia tensor of order 2, describing the main mass variations of our planet impacting the EOPs. Thanks to the long record of accurate and continuous laser ranging observations to Lageos and other geodetic satellites, SLR is the only current space technique capable to monitor the long time variability of the Earth's gravity field with adequate accuracy. Time series of low-degree geopotential coefficients are estimated with our analysis of SLR data (spanning more than 25 years) from several geodetic satellites in order to detect trends and periodic variations related to tidal effects and atmospheric/oceanic mass variations. This study is focused on the variations of the second-degree Stokes coefficients related to the Earth's principal figure axis and oblateness: C21, S21 and C20. On the other hand, surface mass load variations induce excitations in the EOPs that are proportional to the same second-degree coefficients. The time series of direct estimates of low degree geopotential and those derived from the EOP excitation functions are compared and presented together with their time and frequency analysis.

  15. Automated Land Cover Change Detection and Mapping from Hidden Parameter Estimates of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Time-Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, S.; Banerjee, A.; Gupta, S. K. S.; Christensen, P. R.; Papandreou-Suppappola, A.

    2017-12-01

    Multitemporal observations acquired frequently by satellites with short revisit periods such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), is an important source for modeling land cover. Due to the inherent seasonality of the land cover, harmonic modeling reveals hidden state parameters characteristic to it, which is used in classifying different land cover types and in detecting changes due to natural or anthropogenic factors. In this work, we use an eight day MODIS composite to create a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series of ten years. Improved hidden parameter estimates of the nonlinear harmonic NDVI model are obtained using the Particle Filter (PF), a sequential Monte Carlo estimator. The nonlinear estimation based on PF is shown to improve parameter estimation for different land cover types compared to existing techniques that use the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), due to linearization of the harmonic model. As these parameters are representative of a given land cover, its applicability in near real-time detection of land cover change is also studied by formulating a metric that captures parameter deviation due to change. The detection methodology is evaluated by considering change as a rare class problem. This approach is shown to detect change with minimum delay. Additionally, the degree of change within the change perimeter is non-uniform. By clustering the deviation in parameters due to change, this spatial variation in change severity is effectively mapped and validated with high spatial resolution change maps of the given regions.

  16. Academic Training: Evolutionary Heuristic Optimization: Genetic Algorithms and Estimation of Distribution Algorithms - Lecture series

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2004-01-01

    ACADEMIC TRAINING LECTURE REGULAR PROGRAMME 1, 2, 3 and 4 June From 11:00 hrs to 12:00 hrs - Main Auditorium bldg. 500 Evolutionary Heuristic Optimization: Genetic Algorithms and Estimation of Distribution Algorithms V. Robles Forcada and M. Perez Hernandez / Univ. de Madrid, Spain In the real world, there exist a huge number of problems that require getting an optimum or near-to-optimum solution. Optimization can be used to solve a lot of different problems such as network design, sets and partitions, storage and retrieval or scheduling. On the other hand, in nature, there exist many processes that seek a stable state. These processes can be seen as natural optimization processes. Over the last 30 years several attempts have been made to develop optimization algorithms, which simulate these natural optimization processes. These attempts have resulted in methods such as Simulated Annealing, based on natural annealing processes or Evolutionary Computation, based on biological evolution processes. Geneti...

  17. Academic Training: Evolutionary Heuristic Optimization: Genetic Algorithms and Estimation of Distribution Algorithms - Lecture serie

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2004-01-01

    ENSEIGNEMENT ACADEMIQUE ACADEMIC TRAINING Françoise Benz 73127 academic.training@cern.ch ACADEMIC TRAINING LECTURE REGULAR PROGRAMME 1, 2, 3 and 4 June From 11:00 hrs to 12:00 hrs - Main Auditorium bldg. 500 Evolutionary Heuristic Optimization: Genetic Algorithms and Estimation of Distribution Algorithms V. Robles Forcada and M. Perez Hernandez / Univ. de Madrid, Spain In the real world, there exist a huge number of problems that require getting an optimum or near-to-optimum solution. Optimization can be used to solve a lot of different problems such as network design, sets and partitions, storage and retrieval or scheduling. On the other hand, in nature, there exist many processes that seek a stable state. These processes can be seen as natural optimization processes. Over the last 30 years several attempts have been made to develop optimization algorithms, which simulate these natural optimization processes. These attempts have resulted in methods such as Simulated Annealing, based on nat...

  18. Estimation of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures in urban landscapes using MODIS time series satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Cheolhee; Im, Jungho; Park, Seonyoung; Quackenbush, Lindi J.

    2018-03-01

    Urban air temperature is considered a significant variable for a variety of urban issues, and analyzing the spatial patterns of air temperature is important for urban planning and management. However, insufficient weather stations limit accurate spatial representation of temperature within a heterogeneous city. This study used a random forest machine learning approach to estimate daily maximum and minimum air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) for two megacities with different climate characteristics: Los Angeles, USA, and Seoul, South Korea. This study used eight time-series land surface temperature (LST) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), with seven auxiliary variables: elevation, solar radiation, normalized difference vegetation index, latitude, longitude, aspect, and the percentage of impervious area. We found different relationships between the eight time-series LSTs with Tmax/Tmin for the two cities, and designed eight schemes with different input LST variables. The schemes were evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) from 10-fold cross-validation. The best schemes produced R2 of 0.850 and 0.777 and RMSE of 1.7 °C and 1.2 °C for Tmax and Tmin in Los Angeles, and R2 of 0.728 and 0.767 and RMSE of 1.1 °C and 1.2 °C for Tmax and Tmin in Seoul, respectively. LSTs obtained the day before were crucial for estimating daily urban air temperature. Estimated air temperature patterns showed that Tmax was highly dependent on the geographic factors (e.g., sea breeze, mountains) of the two cities, while Tmin showed marginally distinct temperature differences between built-up and vegetated areas in the two cities.

  19. Ideas, Creencias, Actitudes. Primer Modulo de una Serie para Maestros de Escuela Elemental (Ideas, Beliefs, Attitudes. First Module of a Series for Elementary Teachers).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Carmen Eneida, Ed.; And Others

    This guide for teachers, in English and Spanish, examines the role of stereotypes within the context of contemporary beliefs, ideas, and attitudes. A pre-test and post-test are included to measure the user's awareness of stereotypes. Object lessons cover the following topics: (1) definition of stereotypes; (2) racial and ethnic stereotypes; (3)…

  20. Los Rizos y el Beisbol. Septimo Modulo de una Serie para Maestros de Escuela Elemental. (Curls and Baseball. Seventh Module of a Series for Elementary School Teachers).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Carmen Eneida, Ed.; And Others

    This guide for teachers, in English and Spanish, examines how assigned sex roles affect grade school girls in competitive sports, simple games, pastimes, and other extracurricular activities. A pre-test and post-test are included to measure the user's awareness of sexual stereotypes. Five object lessons cover the following topics: (1) myths that…

  1. Viva La Diferencia! Segundo Modulo de una Serie para Maestros de Escuela Elemental (Long Live the Difference! Second Module of a Series for Elementary School Teachers).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Carmen Eneida, Ed.; And Others

    This guide, in English and Spanish, is designed to provide teachers with a scientific basis for identifying myths and distortions about men and women. A pre-test and post-test are included to measure the user's awareness of stereotypes. Object lessons address the following areas: (1) common sexual stereotypes; (2) sexual functions; (3) the…

  2. Estimating soil hydraulic properties from soil moisture time series by inversion of a dual-permeability model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalla Valle, Nicolas; Wutzler, Thomas; Meyer, Stefanie; Potthast, Karin; Michalzik, Beate

    2017-04-01

    Dual-permeability type models are widely used to simulate water fluxes and solute transport in structured soils. These models contain two spatially overlapping flow domains with different parameterizations or even entirely different conceptual descriptions of flow processes. They are usually able to capture preferential flow phenomena, but a large set of parameters is needed, which are very laborious to obtain or cannot be measured at all. Therefore, model inversions are often used to derive the necessary parameters. Although these require sufficient input data themselves, they can use measurements of state variables instead, which are often easier to obtain and can be monitored by automated measurement systems. In this work we show a method to estimate soil hydraulic parameters from high frequency soil moisture time series data gathered at two different measurement depths by inversion of a simple one dimensional dual-permeability model. The model uses an advection equation based on the kinematic wave theory to describe the flow in the fracture domain and a Richards equation for the flow in the matrix domain. The soil moisture time series data were measured in mesocosms during sprinkling experiments. The inversion consists of three consecutive steps: First, the parameters of the water retention function were assessed using vertical soil moisture profiles in hydraulic equilibrium. This was done using two different exponential retention functions and the Campbell function. Second, the soil sorptivity and diffusivity functions were estimated from Boltzmann-transformed soil moisture data, which allowed the calculation of the hydraulic conductivity function. Third, the parameters governing flow in the fracture domain were determined using the whole soil moisture time series. The resulting retention functions were within the range of values predicted by pedotransfer functions apart from very dry conditions, where all retention functions predicted lower matrix potentials

  3. Evaluation of fission-product gases in program GAPCON series and FREG-3 to estimate the gap heat transfer coefficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohki, Naohisa; Harayama, Yasuo; Takeda, Tsuneo; Izumi, Fumio.

    1977-12-01

    In safety evaluation of a fuel rod, estimation of the stored energy in the fuel rod is indispensable. For this estimation, the temperature distribution in the fuel rod is calculated. Most important in determination of the temperature distribution is the gap heat transfer coefficient (gap conductance) between pellet surface and cladding inner surface. Under fuel rod operating condition, the mixed gas in the gap is composed of He, Xe and Kr. He is initial seald gas. Xe and Kr are fission-product gases, of which the quantities depend on the fuel burn-up. In program GAPCON series (GAPCON and GAPCON-THERMAL-1 and -2) and FREG-3, these quantities are given as a function of the irradiation time, power rating and neutron flux in estimation of the thermal conductivity of the mixed gas. The methods of calculating the quantities of Xe and Kr in the programs have been examined. Input of the neutron flux which influences F.P. gas production rates is better than the determination from the fuel-rod power rating. (auth.)

  4. Stochastic Models in the DORIS Position Time Series: Estimates from the IDS Contribution to the ITRF2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, A.; Bogusz, J.; Moreaux, G.

    2017-12-01

    This research focuses on the investigation of the deterministic and stochastic parts of the DORIS (Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite) weekly coordinate time series from the IDS contribution to the ITRF2014A set of 90 stations was divided into three groups depending on when the data was collected at an individual station. To reliably describe the DORIS time series, we employed a mathematical model that included the long-term nonlinear signal, linear trend, seasonal oscillations (these three sum up to produce the Polynomial Trend Model) and a stochastic part, all being resolved with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). We proved that the values of the parameters delivered for DORIS data are strictly correlated with the time span of the observations, meaning that the most recent data are the most reliable ones. Not only did the seasonal amplitudes decrease over the years, but also, and most importantly, the noise level and its type changed significantly. We examined five different noise models to be applied to the stochastic part of the DORIS time series: a pure white noise (WN), a pure power-law noise (PL), a combination of white and power-law noise (WNPL), an autoregressive process of first order (AR(1)) and a Generalized Gauss Markov model (GGM). From our study it arises that the PL process may be chosen as the preferred one for most of the DORIS data. Moreover, the preferred noise model has changed through the years from AR(1) to pure PL with few stations characterized by a positive spectral index.

  5. Estimating inter-annual variability in winter wheat sowing dates from satellite time series in Camargue, France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manfron, Giacinto; Delmotte, Sylvestre; Busetto, Lorenzo; Hossard, Laure; Ranghetti, Luigi; Brivio, Pietro Alessandro; Boschetti, Mirco

    2017-05-01

    Crop simulation models are commonly used to forecast the performance of cropping systems under different hypotheses of change. Their use on a regional scale is generally constrained, however, by a lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of environment-related input variables (e.g., soil) and agricultural practices (e.g., sowing dates) that influence crop yields. Satellite remote sensing data can shed light on such variability by providing timely information on crop dynamics and conditions over large areas. This paper proposes a method for analyzing time series of MODIS satellite data in order to estimate the inter-annual variability of winter wheat sowing dates. A rule-based method was developed to automatically identify a reliable sample of winter wheat field time series, and to infer the corresponding sowing dates. The method was designed for a case study in the Camargue region (France), where winter wheat is characterized by vernalization, as in other temperate regions. The detection criteria were chosen on the grounds of agronomic expertise and by analyzing high-confidence time-series vegetation index profiles for winter wheat. This automatic method identified the target crop on more than 56% (four-year average) of the cultivated areas, with low commission errors (11%). It also captured the seasonal variability in sowing dates with errors of ±8 and ±16 days in 46% and 66% of cases, respectively. Extending the analysis to the years 2002-2012 showed that sowing in the Camargue was usually done on or around November 1st (±4 days). Comparing inter-annual sowing date variability with the main local agro-climatic drivers showed that the type of preceding crop and the weather conditions during the summer season before the wheat sowing had a prominent role in influencing winter wheat sowing dates.

  6. The inverse Numerical Computer Program FLUX-BOT for estimating Vertical Water Fluxes from Temperature Time-Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trauth, N.; Schmidt, C.; Munz, M.

    2016-12-01

    Heat as a natural tracer to quantify water fluxes between groundwater and surface water has evolved to a standard hydrological method. Typically, time series of temperatures in the surface water and in the sediment are observed and are subsequently evaluated by a vertical 1D representation of heat transport by advection and dispersion. Several analytical solutions as well as their implementation into user-friendly software exist in order to estimate water fluxes from the observed temperatures. Analytical solutions can be easily implemented but assumptions on the boundary conditions have to be made a priori, e.g. sinusoidal upper temperature boundary. Numerical models offer more flexibility and can handle temperature data which is characterized by irregular variations such as storm-event induced temperature changes and thus cannot readily be incorporated in analytical solutions. This also reduced the effort of data preprocessing such as the extraction of the diurnal temperature variation. We developed a software to estimate water FLUXes Based On Temperatures- FLUX-BOT. FLUX-BOT is a numerical code written in MATLAB which is intended to calculate vertical water fluxes in saturated sediments, based on the inversion of measured temperature time series observed at multiple depths. It applies a cell-centered Crank-Nicolson implicit finite difference scheme to solve the one-dimensional heat advection-conduction equation. Besides its core inverse numerical routines, FLUX-BOT includes functions visualizing the results and functions for performing uncertainty analysis. We provide applications of FLUX-BOT to generic as well as to measured temperature data to demonstrate its performance.

  7. Mathematics Teachers at Work: Connecting Curriculum Materials and Classroom Instruction. Studies in Mathematical Thinking and Learning Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remillard, Janine T., Ed.; Herbel-Eisenmann, Beth A., Ed.; Lloyd, Gwendolyn M., Ed.

    2011-01-01

    This book compiles and synthesizes existing research on teachers' use of mathematics curriculum materials and the impact of curriculum materials on teaching and teachers, with a particular emphasis on--but not restricted to--those materials developed in the 1990s in response to the NCTM's Principles and Standards for School Mathematics. Despite…

  8. Pathways into Teaching: Q&A with Dr. Pam Grossman. REL Mid-Atlantic Teacher Effectiveness Webinar Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic, 2013

    2013-01-01

    This webinar explored several elements of teacher preparation pathways, including the history, popularity, and quality of various routes to certification, as well as the impact of these various pathways on teacher quality and retention and student achievement. This Q&A addressed the questions participants had for Dr. Grossman following the…

  9. Decreasing pH trend estimated from 25-yr time series of carbonate parameters in the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Midorikawa, Takashi; Ishii, Masao; Sasano, Daisuke; Kosugi, Naohiro (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (Japan)), e-mail: midorika@mri-jma.go.jp; Saito, Shu (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka (Japan)); Motoi, Tatsuo (Oceanographic Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)); Kamiya, Hitomi; Nakadate, Akira; Nemoto, Kazuhiro (Global Environment and Marine Dept., Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo (Japan)); Inoue, Hisayuki Y. (Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan))

    2010-11-15

    We estimated long-term trends of ocean acidification in surface waters in latitudinal zones from 3 deg N to 33 deg N along the repeat hydrographic line at 137 deg E in the western North Pacific Ocean. Estimates were based on the observational records of oceanic CO{sub 2} partial pressure and related surface properties over the last two decades. The computed pH time series both for 25 yr in winter (late January to early February) and for 21 yr in summer (June-July) exhibited significant decreasing trends in the extensive subtropical to equatorial zones, with interannual variations that were larger in summer. The calculated rates of pH decrease ranged from 0.0015 to 0.0021 yr-1 (average, 0.0018 +- 0.0002 yr-1) in winter and from 0.0008 to 0.0019 yr-1 (average, 0.0013 +- 0.0005 yr-1 ) in summer. The thermodynamic effects of rising sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for up to 44% (average, 15%) of the trend of pH decrease in the subtropical region in winter, whereas a trend of decreasing SST slowed the pH decrease in the northern subtropical region (around 25 deg N) in summer. We used the results from recent trends to evaluate future possible thermodynamic changes in the upper ocean carbonate system

  10. Teacher Costs

    OpenAIRE

    DINIS MOTA DA COSTA PATRICIA; DE SOUSA LOBO BORGES DE ARAUJO LUISA

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this technical brief is to assess current methodologies for the collection and calculation of teacher costs in European Union (EU) Member States in view of improving data series and indicators related to teacher salaries and teacher costs. To this end, CRELL compares the Eurydice collection on teacher salaries with the similar Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data collection and calculates teacher costs based on the methodology established by Statis...

  11. An estimation model of population in China using time series DMSP night-time satellite imagery from 2002-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoyong; Zhang, Zhijie; Chang, Yuguang; Chen, Zhengchao

    2015-12-01

    Accurate data on the spatial distribution and potential growth estimation of human population are playing pivotal role in addressing and mitigating heavy lose caused by earthquake. Traditional demographic data is limited in its spatial resolution and is extremely hard to update. With the accessibility of massive DMSP/OLS night time imagery, it is possible to model population distribution at the county level across China. In order to compare and improve the continuity and consistency of time-series DMSP night-time satellite imagery obtained by different satellites in same year or different years by the same satellite from 2002-2010, normalized method was deployed for the inter-correction among imageries. And we referred to the reference F162007 Jixi city, whose social-economic has been relatively stable. Through binomial model, with average R2 0.90, then derived the correction factor of each year. The normalization obviously improved consistency comparing to previous data, which enhanced the correspondent accuracy of model. Then conducted the model of population density between average night-time light intensity in eight-economic districts. According to the two parameters variation law of consecutive years, established the prediction model of next following years with R2of slope and constant typically 0.85 to 0.95 in different regions. To validate the model, taking the year of 2005 as example, retrieved quantitatively population distribution in per square kilometer based on the model, then compared the results to the statistical data based on census, the difference of the result is acceptable. In summary, the estimation model facilitates the quick estimation and prediction in relieving the damage to people, which is significant in decision-making.

  12. Estimating extreme dry-spell risk in the Middle Ebro valley (Northeastern Spain). a comparative analysis of partial duration series with a General Pareto distribution and annual maxima series with a Gumbel distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vicente-Serrano, S.; Beguería, S.

    2003-01-01

    This paper analyses fifty-year time series of daily precipitation in a region of the middle Ebro valley (northern Spain) in order to predict extreme dry-spell risk. A comparison of observed and estimated maximum dry spells (50-year return period) showed that the Generalised Pareto (GP)

  13. ACER Mathematics Profile Series: Number Test. (Test Booklet, Answer and Record Sheet, Score Key, and Teachers Handbook).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornish, Greg; Wines, Robin

    The Number Test of the ACER Mathematics Profile Series, contains 30 items, for each of three suggested grade levels: 7-8, 8-9, and 9-10. Raw scores on all tests in the ACER Mathematics Profile Series (Number, Operations, Space and Measurement) are converted to a common scale called MAPS, a major feature of the Series. Based on the Rasch Model,…

  14. Novel approaches to estimating the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate from low- and moderate-resolution velocity fluctuation time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Wacławczyk

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose two approaches to estimating the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE dissipation rate, based on the zero-crossing method by Sreenivasan et al. (1983. The original formulation requires a fine resolution of the measured signal, down to the smallest dissipative scales. However, due to finite sampling frequency, as well as measurement errors, velocity time series obtained from airborne experiments are characterized by the presence of effective spectral cutoffs. In contrast to the original formulation the new approaches are suitable for use with signals originating from airborne experiments. The suitability of the new approaches is tested using measurement data obtained during the Physics of Stratocumulus Top (POST airborne research campaign as well as synthetic turbulence data. They appear useful and complementary to existing methods. We show the number-of-crossings-based approaches respond differently to errors due to finite sampling and finite averaging than the classical power spectral method. Hence, their application for the case of short signals and small sampling frequencies is particularly interesting, as it can increase the robustness of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate retrieval.

  15. Using Student Surveys to Monitor Teacher Effectiveness: Q&A with Dr. Ronald Ferguson. REL Mid-Atlantic Teacher Effectiveness Webinar Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic, 2013

    2013-01-01

    In this webinar, Dr. Ronald Ferguson, creator of the Tripod Project and Senior Lecturer at Harvard University Graduate School of Education, discussed the use of student surveys as an approach to measuring teacher effectiveness. This Q&A addressed the questions participants had for Dr. Ferguson following the webinar. The webinar recording and…

  16. Common Core State Standards and Teacher Effectiveness. Q&A with Ross Wiener, Ph.D. REL Mid-Atlantic Teacher Effectiveness Webinar Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic, 2013

    2013-01-01

    In this REL Mid-Atlantic webinar, Dr. Ross Wiener, Vice President and Executive Director of the Education and Society Program, Aspen Institute, discussed strategies for integrating the Common Core State Standards (CCSS) into teacher effectiveness systems, including ways in which the CCSS can support professional growth and inform teacher…

  17. Estimating continuous monthly baseflow time series and their possible applications in the context of the ecological reserve

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Smakhtin, VU

    2001-04-01

    Full Text Available (river and groundwater) are, therefore, dependent. In this example, the assumption is that IFRs (river reserve flows) determine the extent to which groundwater resources may be impacted in the absence of any surface water resource development (the impacts... (IFRs) are used instead of reference natural streamflow time series. The corresponding groundwater storage time series will then represent the groundwater reserve. These storages may provisionally be called ?IFR driven?. Two component reserve time series...

  18. Manual para los Profesores de Ciencias. (Science Teachers' Handbook). Appropriate Technologies for Development Series Reprint R-66.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, C. S., Ed.

    Science should not be presented as a collection of facts; it must be presented as an active dynamic subject. It should be used to stimulate young minds and encourage questioning. This is a publication designed to meet the needs of science teachers for a day-to-day reference in science. It was intended for the use of Peace Corps volunteers and…

  19. The International News Journal, Inc. Teacher Resource Manual [and] Student Activities. Second Edition. Exploring the Marketplace Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinke, Robert; McGuire, Margit; Reinke, Diane Wilcox

    This teacher resource manual and student activities economics education unit provides students with the opportunity to use economic content and related skills as they learn about the U.S. economic system and its relationship to the world economy. The lessons link to economic content and other subject areas traditionally taught in grades 5, 6, and…

  20. Unlocking Student Effort: How Five Irreplaceable Teachers Engage, Challenge and Inspire Students to Excellence. Fishman Prize Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fishman, Shira; Henderson, Whitney; Irish, Jamie; Lyons, Katie; Ross, Leslie

    2012-01-01

    Founded by TNTP, the Fishman Prize for Superlative Classroom Practice is an annual award for the nation's best teachers in high-poverty public schools. The goal is to shine a spotlight on great teaching and amplify the voices of some of the nation's best educators so that others can gain insight into their remarkable classrooms. No more than five…

  1. Queering Straight Teachers: Discourse and Identity in Education. Complicated Conversation: A Book Series of Curriculum Studies. Volume 22

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Nelson M., Ed.; Pinar, William F., Ed.

    2007-01-01

    Much of the focus of anti-homophobic/anti-heterosexist educational theory, curriculum, and pedagogy has examined the impact of homophobia and heterosexism on gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (GLBT) students and teachers. Such a focus has provided numerous theoretical and pedagogical insights, and has informed important changes in…

  2. Study on homogenization of synthetic GNSS-retrieved IWV time series and its impact on trend estimates with autoregressive noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, Anna; Pottiaux, Eric; Van Malderen, Roeland; Bock, Olivier; Bogusz, Janusz

    2017-04-01

    A synthetic benchmark dataset of Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) was created within the activity of "Data homogenisation" of sub-working group WG3 of COST ES1206 Action. The benchmark dataset was created basing on the analysis of IWV differences retrieved by Global Positioning System (GPS) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecats (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA-Interim). Having analysed a set of 120 series of IWV differences (ERAI-GPS) derived for IGS stations, we delivered parameters of a number of gaps and breaks for every certain station. Moreover, we estimated values of trends, significant seasonalities and character of residuals when deterministic model was removed. We tested five different noise models and found that a combination of white and autoregressive processes of first order describes the stochastic part with a good accuracy. Basing on this analysis, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of 25 years long data with two different types of noise: white as well as combination of white and autoregressive processes. We also added few strictly defined offsets, creating three variants of synthetic dataset: easy, less-complicated and fully-complicated. The 'Easy' dataset included seasonal signals (annual, semi-annual, 3 and 4 months if present for a particular station), offsets and white noise. The 'Less-complicated' dataset included above-mentioned, as well as the combination of white and first order autoregressive processes (AR(1)+WH). The 'Fully-complicated' dataset included, beyond above, a trend and gaps. In this research, we show the impact of manual homogenisation on the estimates of trend and its error. We also cross-compare the results for three above-mentioned datasets, as the synthetized noise type might have a significant influence on manual homogenisation. Therefore, it might mostly affect the values of trend and their uncertainties when inappropriately handled. In a future, the synthetic dataset

  3. Estimating the Effects of No Child Left Behind on Teachers' Work Environments and Job Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grissom, Jason A.; Nicholson-Crotty, Sean; Harrington, James R.

    2014-01-01

    Several recent studies have examined the impacts of No Child Left Behind (NCLB) on school operations and student achievement. We complement that work by investigating the law's impacts on teachers' perceptions of their work environments and related job attitudes, including satisfaction and commitment to remain in teaching. Using four waves of the…

  4. The Use of Piecewise Growth Models to Estimate Learning Trajectories and RtI Instructional Effects in a Comparative Interrupted Time-Series Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvoch, Keith

    2016-01-01

    Piecewise growth models (PGMs) were used to estimate and model changes in the preliteracy skill development of kindergartners in a moderately sized school district in the Pacific Northwest. PGMs were applied to interrupted time-series (ITS) data that arose within the context of a response-to-intervention (RtI) instructional framework. During the…

  5. A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundExposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of a...

  6. Estimations of the Global Distribution and Time Series of UV Noontime Irradiance (305, 310, 324, 380 nm, and Erythemal) from TOMS and SeaWiFS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, J.

    2004-01-01

    The amount of UV irradiance reaching the Earth's surface is estimated from the measured cloud reflectivity, ozone, aerosol amounts, and surface reflectivity time series from 1980 to 1992 and 1997 to 2000 to estimate changes that have occurred over a 21-year period. Recent analysis of the TOMS data shows that there has been an apparent increase in reflectivity (decrease in W) in the Southern Hemisphere that is related to a calibration error in EP-TOMS. Data from the well-calibrated SeaWiFS satellite instrument have been used to correct the EP-TOMS reflectivity and UV time series. After correction, some of the local trend features seen in the N7 time series (1980 to 1992) have been continued in the combined time series, but the overall zonal average and global trends have changed. In addition to correcting the EP-TOMS radiance calibration, the use of SeaWiFS cloud data permits estimation of UV irradiance at higher spatial resolution (1 to 4 km) than is available from TOMS (100 km) under the assumption that ozone is slowly varying over a scale of 100 km. The key results include a continuing decrease in cloud cover over Europe and North America with a corresponding increase in UV and a decrease in UV irradiance near Antarctica.

  7. Taylor-series and Monte-Carlo-method uncertainty estimation of the width of a probability distribution based on varying bias and random error

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, Brandon M; Smith, Barton L

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainties are typically assumed to be constant or a linear function of the measured value; however, this is generally not true. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) is one example of a measurement technique that has highly nonlinear, time varying local uncertainties. Traditional uncertainty methods are not adequate for the estimation of the uncertainty of measurement statistics (mean and variance) in the presence of nonlinear, time varying errors. Propagation of instantaneous uncertainty estimates into measured statistics is performed allowing accurate uncertainty quantification of time-mean and statistics of measurements such as PIV. It is shown that random errors will always elevate the measured variance, and thus turbulent statistics such as u'u'-bar. Within this paper, nonlinear, time varying errors are propagated from instantaneous measurements into the measured mean and variance using the Taylor-series method. With these results and knowledge of the systematic and random uncertainty of each measurement, the uncertainty of the time-mean, the variance and covariance can be found. Applicability of the Taylor-series uncertainty equations to time varying systematic and random errors and asymmetric error distributions are demonstrated with Monte-Carlo simulations. The Taylor-series uncertainty estimates are always accurate for uncertainties on the mean quantity. The Taylor-series variance uncertainty is similar to the Monte-Carlo results for cases in which asymmetric random errors exist or the magnitude of the instantaneous variations in the random and systematic errors is near the ‘true’ variance. However, the Taylor-series method overpredicts the uncertainty in the variance as the instantaneous variations of systematic errors are large or are on the same order of magnitude as the ‘true’ variance. (paper)

  8. Regional estimation of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves using generalized least squares regression of partial duration series statistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, H.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2002-01-01

    A general framework for regional analysis and modeling of extreme rainfall characteristics is presented. The model is based on the partial duration series (PDS) method that includes in the analysis all events above a threshold level. In the PDS model the average annual number of exceedances...

  9. Estimating serial correlation and self-similarity in financial time series-A diversification approach with applications to high frequency data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerlich, Nikolas; Rostek, Stefan

    2015-09-01

    We derive a heuristic method to estimate the degree of self-similarity and serial correlation in financial time series. Especially, we propagate the use of a tailor-made selection of different estimation techniques that are used in various fields of time series analysis but until now have not consequently found their way into the finance literature. Following the idea of portfolio diversification, we show that considerable improvements with respect to robustness and unbiasedness can be achieved by using a basket of estimation methods. With this methodological toolbox at hand, we investigate real market data to show that noticeable deviations from the assumptions of constant self-similarity and absence of serial correlation occur during certain periods. On the one hand, this may shed a new light on seemingly ambiguous scientific findings concerning serial correlation of financial time series. On the other hand, a proven time-changing degree of self-similarity may help to explain high-volatility clusters of stock price indices.

  10. Estimation of time-series properties of gourd observed solar irradiance data using cloud properties derived from satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, T.; Nohara, D.

    2017-12-01

    The shorter temporal scale variation in the downward solar irradiance at the ground level (DSI) is not understood well because researches in the shorter-scale variation in the DSI is based on the ground observation and ground observation stations are located coarsely. Use of dataset derived from satellite observation will overcome such defect. DSI data and MODIS cloud properties product are analyzed simultaneously. Three metrics: mean, standard deviation and sample entropy, are used to evaluate time-series properties of the DSI. Three metrics are computed from two-hours time-series centered at the observation time of MODIS over the ground observation stations. We apply the regression methods to design prediction models of each three metrics from cloud properties. The validation of the model accuracy show that mean and standard deviation are predicted with a higher degree of accuracy and that the accuracy of prediction of sample entropy, which represents the complexity of time-series, is not high. One of causes of lower prediction skill of sample entropy is the resolution of the MODIS cloud properties. Higher sample entropy is corresponding to the rapid fluctuation, which is caused by the small and unordered cloud. It seems that such clouds isn't retrieved well.

  11. A combined method to estimate parameters of the thalamocortical model from a heavily noise-corrupted time series of action potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Ruofan; Wang, Jiang; Deng, Bin; Liu, Chen; Wei, Xile; Tsang, K. M.; Chan, W. L.

    2014-01-01

    A combined method composing of the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and the synchronization-based method is proposed for estimating electrophysiological variables and parameters of a thalamocortical (TC) neuron model, which is commonly used for studying Parkinson's disease for its relay role of connecting the basal ganglia and the cortex. In this work, we take into account the condition when only the time series of action potential with heavy noise are available. Numerical results demonstrate that not only this method can estimate model parameters from the extracted time series of action potential successfully but also the effect of its estimation is much better than the only use of the UKF or synchronization-based method, with a higher accuracy and a better robustness against noise, especially under the severe noise conditions. Considering the rather important role of TC neuron in the normal and pathological brain functions, the exploration of the method to estimate the critical parameters could have important implications for the study of its nonlinear dynamics and further treatment of Parkinson's disease

  12. A combined method to estimate parameters of the thalamocortical model from a heavily noise-corrupted time series of action potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ruofan; Wang, Jiang; Deng, Bin; Liu, Chen; Wei, Xile; Tsang, K. M.; Chan, W. L.

    2014-03-01

    A combined method composing of the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and the synchronization-based method is proposed for estimating electrophysiological variables and parameters of a thalamocortical (TC) neuron model, which is commonly used for studying Parkinson's disease for its relay role of connecting the basal ganglia and the cortex. In this work, we take into account the condition when only the time series of action potential with heavy noise are available. Numerical results demonstrate that not only this method can estimate model parameters from the extracted time series of action potential successfully but also the effect of its estimation is much better than the only use of the UKF or synchronization-based method, with a higher accuracy and a better robustness against noise, especially under the severe noise conditions. Considering the rather important role of TC neuron in the normal and pathological brain functions, the exploration of the method to estimate the critical parameters could have important implications for the study of its nonlinear dynamics and further treatment of Parkinson's disease.

  13. A combined method to estimate parameters of the thalamocortical model from a heavily noise-corrupted time series of action potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Ruofan; Wang, Jiang; Deng, Bin, E-mail: dengbin@tju.edu.cn; Liu, Chen; Wei, Xile [Department of Electrical and Automation Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin (China); Tsang, K. M.; Chan, W. L. [Department of Electrical Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon (Hong Kong)

    2014-03-15

    A combined method composing of the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and the synchronization-based method is proposed for estimating electrophysiological variables and parameters of a thalamocortical (TC) neuron model, which is commonly used for studying Parkinson's disease for its relay role of connecting the basal ganglia and the cortex. In this work, we take into account the condition when only the time series of action potential with heavy noise are available. Numerical results demonstrate that not only this method can estimate model parameters from the extracted time series of action potential successfully but also the effect of its estimation is much better than the only use of the UKF or synchronization-based method, with a higher accuracy and a better robustness against noise, especially under the severe noise conditions. Considering the rather important role of TC neuron in the normal and pathological brain functions, the exploration of the method to estimate the critical parameters could have important implications for the study of its nonlinear dynamics and further treatment of Parkinson's disease.

  14. How Do Value-Added Indicators Compare to Other Measures of Teacher Effectiveness? What We Know Series: Value-Added Methods and Applications. Knowledge Brief 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Douglas N.

    2012-01-01

    In the recent drive to revamp teacher evaluation and accountability, measures of a teacher's value added have played the starring role. But the star of the show is not always the best actor, nor can the star succeed without a strong supporting cast. In assessing teacher performance, observations of classroom practice, portfolios of teachers' work,…

  15. A framework for consistent estimation of leaf area index, fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, and surface albedo from MODIS time-series data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xiao, Zhiqiang; Liang, Shunlin; Wang, Jindi

    2015-01-01

    -series MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data. If the reflectance data showed snow-free areas, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique was used to estimate leaf area index (LAI) for a two-layer canopy reflectance model (ACRM) by combining predictions from a phenology...... model and the MODIS surface reflectance data. The estimated LAI values were then input into the ACRM to calculate the surface albedo and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR). For snow-covered areas, the surface albedo was calculated as the underlying vegetation canopy...... albedo plus the weighted distance between the underlying vegetation canopy albedo and the albedo over deep snow. The LAI/FAPAR and surface albedo values estimated using this framework were compared with MODIS collection 5 eight-day 1-km LAI/FAPAR products (MOD15A2) and 500-m surface albedo product (MCD43...

  16. A comparative analysis of spectral exponent estimation techniques for 1/f(β) processes with applications to the analysis of stride interval time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Alexander; Brach, Jennifer S; Perera, Subashan; Sejdić, Ervin

    2014-01-30

    The time evolution and complex interactions of many nonlinear systems, such as in the human body, result in fractal types of parameter outcomes that exhibit self similarity over long time scales by a power law in the frequency spectrum S(f)=1/f(β). The scaling exponent β is thus often interpreted as a "biomarker" of relative health and decline. This paper presents a thorough comparative numerical analysis of fractal characterization techniques with specific consideration given to experimentally measured gait stride interval time series. The ideal fractal signals generated in the numerical analysis are constrained under varying lengths and biases indicative of a range of physiologically conceivable fractal signals. This analysis is to complement previous investigations of fractal characteristics in healthy and pathological gait stride interval time series, with which this study is compared. The results of our analysis showed that the averaged wavelet coefficient method consistently yielded the most accurate results. Class dependent methods proved to be unsuitable for physiological time series. Detrended fluctuation analysis as most prevailing method in the literature exhibited large estimation variances. The comparative numerical analysis and experimental applications provide a thorough basis for determining an appropriate and robust method for measuring and comparing a physiologically meaningful biomarker, the spectral index β. In consideration of the constraints of application, we note the significant drawbacks of detrended fluctuation analysis and conclude that the averaged wavelet coefficient method can provide reasonable consistency and accuracy for characterizing these fractal time series. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Global estimates of carbon stock changes in living forest biomass: EDGARv4.3 - time series from 1990 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrescu, A. M. R.; Abad-Viñas, R.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Blujdea, V. N. B.; Grassi, G.

    2012-08-01

    While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all countries of the world. Parties to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to provide periodic estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, following the latest approved methodological guidance by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The current study aims to consistently estimate the carbon (C) stock changes from living forest biomass for all countries of the world, in order to complete the LULUCF sector in EDGAR. In order to derive comparable estimates for developing and developed countries, it is crucial to use a single methodology with global applicability. Data for developing countries are generally poor, such that only the Tier 1 methods from either the IPCC Good Practice Guide for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (GPG-LULUCF) 2003 or the IPCC 2006 Guidelines can be applied to these countries. For this purpose, we applied the IPCC Tier 1 method at global level following both IPCC GPG-LULUCF 2003 and IPCC 2006, using spatially coarse activity data (i.e. area, obtained combining two different global forest maps: the Global Land Cover map and the eco-zones subdivision of the Global Ecological Zone (GEZ) map) in combination with the IPCC default C stocks and C stock change factors. Results for the C stock changes were calculated separately for gains, harvest, fires (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3, GFEDv.3) and net deforestation for the years 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010. At the global level, results obtained with the two sets of IPCC guidance differed by about 40 %, due to different assumptions and default factors. The IPCC Tier 1 method unavoidably introduced high uncertainties due to the "globalization" of parameters. When the

  18. Quick estimate of the heat transfer characteristics of annular fins of hyperbolic profile with the power series method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arauzo, Inmaculada; Campo, Antonio; Cortes, Cristobal

    2005-01-01

    This technical paper addresses an elementary analytic procedure for the approximate solution of the quasi-one-dimensional heat conduction equation (a generalized Bessel equation) that governs the temperature variation in annular fins of hyperbolic profile. This fin shape is of remarkable importance because its heat transfer performance is close to that of the annular fin of convex parabolic profile, the so-called optimal annular fin that is capable of delivering maximum heat transfer for a given volume of material [Zeitschrift des Vereines Deutscher Ingenieure 70 (1926) 885]. The salient feature of the analytic procedure developed here is that for realistic combinations of the two parameters: the enlarged Biot number and the normalized radii ratio, the truncated power series solutions embracing a moderate number of terms yields unprecedented results of excellent quality. The analytic results are conveniently presented in terms of the two primary quantities of interest in thermal design applications, namely the heat transfer rates and the tip temperature

  19. Learning of time series through neuron-to-neuron instruction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miyazaki, Y [Department of Physics, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8502, (Japan); Kinzel, W [Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Universitaet Wurzburg, 97074 Wurzburg (Germany); Shinomoto, S [Department of Physics, Kyoto University, Kyoto (Japan)

    2003-02-07

    A model neuron with delayline feedback connections can learn a time series generated by another model neuron. It has been known that some student neurons that have completed such learning under the instruction of a teacher's quasi-periodic sequence mimic the teacher's time series over a long interval, even after instruction has ceased. We found that in addition to such faithful students, there are unfaithful students whose time series eventually diverge exponentially from that of the teacher. In order to understand the circumstances that allow for such a variety of students, the orbit dimension was estimated numerically. The quasi-periodic orbits in question were found to be confined in spaces with dimensions significantly smaller than that of the full phase space.

  20. Learning of time series through neuron-to-neuron instruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyazaki, Y; Kinzel, W; Shinomoto, S

    2003-01-01

    A model neuron with delayline feedback connections can learn a time series generated by another model neuron. It has been known that some student neurons that have completed such learning under the instruction of a teacher's quasi-periodic sequence mimic the teacher's time series over a long interval, even after instruction has ceased. We found that in addition to such faithful students, there are unfaithful students whose time series eventually diverge exponentially from that of the teacher. In order to understand the circumstances that allow for such a variety of students, the orbit dimension was estimated numerically. The quasi-periodic orbits in question were found to be confined in spaces with dimensions significantly smaller than that of the full phase space

  1. Estimating spatially distributed soil texture using time series of thermal remote sensing - a case study in central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Benjamin; Bernhardt, Matthias; Jackisch, Conrad; Schulz, Karsten

    2016-09-01

    For understanding water and solute transport processes, knowledge about the respective hydraulic properties is necessary. Commonly, hydraulic parameters are estimated via pedo-transfer functions using soil texture data to avoid cost-intensive measurements of hydraulic parameters in the laboratory. Therefore, current soil texture information is only available at a coarse spatial resolution of 250 to 1000 m. Here, a method is presented to derive high-resolution (15 m) spatial topsoil texture patterns for the meso-scale Attert catchment (Luxembourg, 288 km2) from 28 images of ASTER (advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer) thermal remote sensing. A principle component analysis of the images reveals the most dominant thermal patterns (principle components, PCs) that are related to 212 fractional soil texture samples. Within a multiple linear regression framework, distributed soil texture information is estimated and related uncertainties are assessed. An overall root mean squared error (RMSE) of 12.7 percentage points (pp) lies well within and even below the range of recent studies on soil texture estimation, while requiring sparser sample setups and a less diverse set of basic spatial input. This approach will improve the generation of spatially distributed topsoil maps, particularly for hydrologic modeling purposes, and will expand the usage of thermal remote sensing products.

  2. Estimation of a noise level using coarse-grained entropy of experimental time series of internal pressure in a combustion engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Litak, Grzegorz; Taccani, Rodolfo; Radu, Robert; Urbanowicz, Krzysztof; HoIyst, Janusz A.; Wendeker, MirosIaw; Giadrossi, Alessandro

    2005-01-01

    We report our results on non-periodic experimental time series of pressure in a single cylinder spark ignition engine. The experiments were performed for different levels of loading. We estimate the noise level in internal pressure calculating the coarse-grained entropy from variations of maximal pressures in successive cycles. The results show that the dynamics of the combustion is a non-linear multidimensional process mediated by noise. Our results show that so defined level of noise in internal pressure is not monotonous function of loading

  3. SNOW DEPTH ESTIMATION USING TIME SERIES PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY VIA GENETICALLY SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION (CASE STUDY URMIA LAKE BASIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Zahir

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Lake Urmia is one of the most important ecosystems of the country which is on the verge of elimination. Many factors contribute to this crisis among them is the precipitation, paly important roll. Precipitation has many forms one of them is in the form of snow. The snow on Sahand Mountain is one of the main and important sources of the Lake Urmia’s water. Snow Depth (SD is vital parameters for estimating water balance for future year. In this regards, this study is focused on SD parameter using Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I instruments on board the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP F16. The usual statistical methods for retrieving SD include linear and non-linear ones. These methods used least square procedure to estimate SD model. Recently, kernel base methods widely used for modelling statistical problem. From these methods, the support vector regression (SVR is achieved the high performance for modelling the statistical problem. Examination of the obtained data shows the existence of outlier in them. For omitting these outliers, wavelet denoising method is applied. After the omission of the outliers it is needed to select the optimum bands and parameters for SVR. To overcome these issues, feature selection methods have shown a direct effect on improving the regression performance. We used genetic algorithm (GA for selecting suitable features of the SSMI bands in order to estimate SD model. The results for the training and testing data in Sahand mountain is [R²_TEST=0.9049 and RMSE= 6.9654] that show the high SVR performance.

  4. Climate Forcing Datasets for Agricultural Modeling: Merged Products for Gap-Filling and Historical Climate Series Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Chryssanthacopoulos, James

    2014-01-01

    The AgMERRA and AgCFSR climate forcing datasets provide daily, high-resolution, continuous, meteorological series over the 1980-2010 period designed for applications examining the agricultural impacts of climate variability and climate change. These datasets combine daily resolution data from retrospective analyses (the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR) with in situ and remotely-sensed observational datasets for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, leading to substantial reductions in bias in comparison to a network of 2324 agricultural-region stations from the Hadley Integrated Surface Dataset (HadISD). Results compare favorably against the original reanalyses as well as the leading climate forcing datasets (Princeton, WFD, WFD-EI, and GRASP), and AgMERRA distinguishes itself with substantially improved representation of daily precipitation distributions and extreme events owing to its use of the MERRA-Land dataset. These datasets also peg relative humidity to the maximum temperature time of day, allowing for more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle of near-surface moisture in agricultural models. AgMERRA and AgCFSR enable a number of ongoing investigations in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and related research networks, and may be used to fill gaps in historical observations as well as a basis for the generation of future climate scenarios.

  5. The recursive combination filter approach of pre-processing for the estimation of standard deviation of RR series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Alok; Swati, D

    2015-09-01

    Variation in the interval between the R-R peaks of the electrocardiogram represents the modulation of the cardiac oscillations by the autonomic nervous system. This variation is contaminated by anomalous signals called ectopic beats, artefacts or noise which mask the true behaviour of heart rate variability. In this paper, we have proposed a combination filter of recursive impulse rejection filter and recursive 20% filter, with recursive application and preference of replacement over removal of abnormal beats to improve the pre-processing of the inter-beat intervals. We have tested this novel recursive combinational method with median method replacement to estimate the standard deviation of normal to normal (SDNN) beat intervals of congestive heart failure (CHF) and normal sinus rhythm subjects. This work discusses the improvement in pre-processing over single use of impulse rejection filter and removal of abnormal beats for heart rate variability for the estimation of SDNN and Poncaré plot descriptors (SD1, SD2, and SD1/SD2) in detail. We have found the 22 ms value of SDNN and 36 ms value of SD2 descriptor of Poincaré plot as clinical indicators in discriminating the normal cases from CHF cases. The pre-processing is also useful in calculation of Lyapunov exponent which is a nonlinear index as Lyapunov exponents calculated after proposed pre-processing modified in a way that it start following the notion of less complex behaviour of diseased states.

  6. Bias correction of risk estimates in vaccine safety studies with rare adverse events using a self-controlled case series design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Chan; Newcomer, Sophia R; Glanz, Jason M; Shoup, Jo Ann; Daley, Matthew F; Hambidge, Simon J; Xu, Stanley

    2013-12-15

    The self-controlled case series (SCCS) method is often used to examine the temporal association between vaccination and adverse events using only data from patients who experienced such events. Conditional Poisson regression models are used to estimate incidence rate ratios, and these models perform well with large or medium-sized case samples. However, in some vaccine safety studies, the adverse events studied are rare and the maximum likelihood estimates may be biased. Several bias correction methods have been examined in case-control studies using conditional logistic regression, but none of these methods have been evaluated in studies using the SCCS design. In this study, we used simulations to evaluate 2 bias correction approaches-the Firth penalized maximum likelihood method and Cordeiro and McCullagh's bias reduction after maximum likelihood estimation-with small sample sizes in studies using the SCCS design. The simulations showed that the bias under the SCCS design with a small number of cases can be large and is also sensitive to a short risk period. The Firth correction method provides finite and less biased estimates than the maximum likelihood method and Cordeiro and McCullagh's method. However, limitations still exist when the risk period in the SCCS design is short relative to the entire observation period.

  7. Estimating the Impact of Urban Expansion on Land Subsidence Using Time Series of DMSP Night-Time Light Satellite Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, S.; Yu, J.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, L.; Zhou, Q.

    2018-04-01

    In recent decades, urbanization has resulted a massive increase in the amount of infrastructure especially large buildings in large cities worldwide. There has been a noticeable expansion of entire cities both horizontally and vertically. One of the common consequences of urban expansion is the increase of ground loads, which may trigger land subsidence and can be a potential threat of public safety. Monitoring trends of urban expansion and land subsidence using remote sensing technology is needed to ensure safety along with urban planning and development. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Line scan System (DMSP/OLS) Night-Time Light (NTL) images have been used to study urbanization at a regional scale, proving the capability of recognizing urban expansion patterns. In the current study, a normalized illuminated urban area dome volume (IUADV) based on inter-calibrated DMSP/OLS NTL images is shown as a practical approach for estimating urban expansion of Beijing at a single period in time and over subsequent years. To estimate the impact of urban expansion on land subsidence, IUADV was correlated with land subsidence rates obtained using the Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterers (StaMPS) approach within the Persistent Scatterers InSAR (PSInSAR) methodology. Moderate correlations are observed between the urban expansion based on the DMSP/OLS NTL images and land subsidence. The correlation coefficients between the urban expansion of each year and land subsidence tends to gradually decrease over time (Coefficient of determination R = 0.80 - 0.64 from year 2005 to year 2010), while the urban expansion of two sequential years exhibit an opposite trend (R = 0.29 - 0.57 from year 2005 to year 2010) except for the two sequential years between 2007 and 2008 (R = 0.14).

  8. A comparative analysis of spectral exponent estimation techniques for 1/fβ processes with applications to the analysis of stride interval time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Alexander; Brach, Jennifer S.; Perera, Subashan; Sejdić, Ervin

    2013-01-01

    Background The time evolution and complex interactions of many nonlinear systems, such as in the human body, result in fractal types of parameter outcomes that exhibit self similarity over long time scales by a power law in the frequency spectrum S(f) = 1/fβ. The scaling exponent β is thus often interpreted as a “biomarker” of relative health and decline. New Method This paper presents a thorough comparative numerical analysis of fractal characterization techniques with specific consideration given to experimentally measured gait stride interval time series. The ideal fractal signals generated in the numerical analysis are constrained under varying lengths and biases indicative of a range of physiologically conceivable fractal signals. This analysis is to complement previous investigations of fractal characteristics in healthy and pathological gait stride interval time series, with which this study is compared. Results The results of our analysis showed that the averaged wavelet coefficient method consistently yielded the most accurate results. Comparison with Existing Methods: Class dependent methods proved to be unsuitable for physiological time series. Detrended fluctuation analysis as most prevailing method in the literature exhibited large estimation variances. Conclusions The comparative numerical analysis and experimental applications provide a thorough basis for determining an appropriate and robust method for measuring and comparing a physiologically meaningful biomarker, the spectral index β. In consideration of the constraints of application, we note the significant drawbacks of detrended fluctuation analysis and conclude that the averaged wavelet coefficient method can provide reasonable consistency and accuracy for characterizing these fractal time series. PMID:24200509

  9. Estimating background denudation rates and delivery of landslide sediment from a time series of 10Be concentrations in landslide dominated basins in the southern Central Range of Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C. Y.; Willett, S.; West, A. J.; Dadson, S. J.; Hovius, N.; Christl, M.; Shyu, J. B. H.

    2017-12-01

    The southern Central Range of Taiwan is located at a tectonic transition zone between an oceanic subduction zone and the arc-continent collision forming the Taiwan orogen. The rapidly evolving tectonic setting, tropical climate and frequent typhoons result in a complex uplift pattern, transient landscapes and extensive landslides. For this study, we obtained a series of 10Be concentrations over the last decade for 13 major drainage basins in the southern Central Range, bracketing the occurrence of a major typhoon, Morakot, which hit Taiwan in 2009 and triggered thousands of landslides. This time series allows us to simultaneously estimate the background erosion rate and assess the impact of Morakot-triggered landslides on 10Be concentrations. The time series of 10Be concentrations shows temporally lower concentrations of 10Be indicating dilution following the Morakot event in most basins. The diluted 10Be concentrations imply erosion rates up to three times higher than the lowest measured rates in the same basins. We constructed a simple sediment-mixing model parameterized by a sudden input of sediment supplied from landslides superimposed on a background denudation rate. This model was calibrated to measured landslide inventories and the series of 10Be data. We obtain a range of permissible background erosion rate and fraction of landslide sediments over time for each basin. The inferred background erosion rate reveals a northward increasing trend, reflecting the initial stage of the mountain building and indicating tectonic forcing is the main driver of the landscape evolution in the southern Central Range. The temporal changes in fraction of landslide sediments show that the available landslide material generated by the Morakot event is decreasing over time with a timescale of several years.

  10. Understanding Aggregation and Estimating Seasonal Abundance of Chrysaora quinquecirrha Medusae from a Fixed-station Time Series in the Choptank River, Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tay, J.; Hood, R. R.

    2016-02-01

    Although jellyfish exert strong control over marine plankton dynamics (Richardson et al. 2009, Robison et al. 2014) and negatively impact human commercial and recreational activities (Purcell et al. 2007, Purcell 2012), jellyfish biomass is not well quantified due primarily to sampling difficulties with plankton nets or fisheries trawls (Haddock 2004). As a result, some of the longest records of jellyfish are visual shore-based surveys, such as the fixed-station time series of Chrysaora quinquecirrha that began in 1960 in the Patuxent River in Chesapeake Bay, USA (Cargo and King 1990). Time series counts from fixed-station surveys capture two signals: 1) demographic change at timescales on the order of reproductive processes and 2) spatial patchiness at shorter timescales as different parcels of water move in and out of the survey area by tidal and estuarine advection and turbulent mixing (Lee and McAlice 1979). In this study, our goal was to separate these two signals using a 4-year time series of C. quinquecirrha medusa counts from a fixed-station in the Choptank River, Chesapeake Bay. Idealized modeling of tidal and estuarine advection was used to conceptualize the sampling scheme. Change point and time series analysis was used to detect demographic changes. Indices of aggregation (Negative Binomial coefficient, Taylor's Power Law coefficient, and Morisita's Index) were calculated to describe the spatial patchiness of the medusae. Abundance estimates revealed a bloom cycle that differed in duration and magnitude for each of the study years. Indices of aggregation indicated that medusae were aggregated and that patches grew in the number of individuals, and likely in size, as abundance increased. Further inference from the conceptual modeling suggested that medusae patch structure was generally homogenous over the tidal extent. This study highlights the benefits of using fixed-station shore-based surveys for understanding the biology and ecology of jellyfish.

  11. A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dionisio, Kathie L; Chang, Howard H; Baxter, Lisa K

    2016-11-25

    Exposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of air pollution and health. ZIP-code level estimates of exposure for six pollutants (CO, NO x , EC, PM 2.5 , SO 4 , O 3 ) from 1999 to 2002 in the Atlanta metropolitan area were used to calculate spatial, population (i.e. ambient versus personal), and total exposure measurement error. Empirically determined covariance of pollutant concentration pairs and the associated measurement errors were used to simulate true exposure (exposure without error) from observed exposure. Daily emergency department visits for respiratory diseases were simulated using a Poisson time-series model with a main pollutant RR = 1.05 per interquartile range, and a null association for the copollutant (RR = 1). Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate the impacts of correlated exposure errors of different copollutant pairs. Substantial attenuation of RRs due to exposure error was evident in nearly all copollutant pairs studied, ranging from 10 to 40% attenuation for spatial error, 3-85% for population error, and 31-85% for total error. When CO, NO x or EC is the main pollutant, we demonstrated the possibility of false positives, specifically identifying significant, positive associations for copollutants based on the estimated type I error rate. The impact of exposure error must be considered when interpreting results of copollutant epidemiologic models, due to the possibility of attenuation of main pollutant RRs and the increased probability of false positives when measurement error is present.

  12. OPTICAL FLOW APPLIED TO TIME-LAPSE IMAGE SERIES TO ESTIMATE GLACIER MOTION IN THE SOUTHERN PATAGONIA ICE FIELD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Lannutti

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we assessed the feasibility of using optical flow to obtain the motion estimation of a glacier. In general, former investigations used to detect glacier changes involve solutions that require repeated observations which are many times based on extensive field work. Taking into account glaciers are usually located in geographically complex and hard to access areas, deploying time-lapse imaging sensors, optical flow may provide an efficient solution at good spatial and temporal resolution to describe mass motion. Several studies in computer vision and image processing community have used this method to detect large displacements. Therefore, we carried out a test of the proposed Large Displacement Optical Flow method at the Viedma Glacier, located at South Patagonia Icefield, Argentina. We collected monoscopic terrestrial time-lapse imagery, acquired by a calibrated camera at every 24 hour from April 2014 until April 2015. A filter based on temporal correlation and RGB color discretization between the images was applied to minimize errors related to changes in lighting, shadows, clouds and snow. This selection allowed discarding images that do not follow a sequence of similarity. Our results show a flow field in the direction of the glacier movement with acceleration in the terminus. We analyzed the errors between image pairs, and the matching generally appears to be adequate, although some areas show random gross errors related to the presence of changes in lighting. The proposed technique allowed the determination of glacier motion during one year, providing accurate and reliable motion data for subsequent analysis.

  13. Functional Time Series Models to Estimate Future Age-Specific Breast Cancer Incidence Rates for Women in Karachi, Pakistan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Farah Yasmeen[1; Sidra Zaheer[2

    2014-01-01

    Background: Breast cancer is the most common female cancer in Pakistan. The incidence of breast cancer in Pakistan is about 2.5 times higher than that in the neighboring countries India and Iran. In Karachi, the most populated city of Pakistan, the age-standardized rate of breast cancer was 69.1 per 100,000 women during 1998-2002, which is the highest recorded rate in Asia. The carcinoma of breast in Pakistan is an enormous public health concern. In this study, we examined the recent trends of breast cancer incidence rates among the women in Karachi. Methods: We obtained the secondary data of breast cancer incidence from various hospitals. They included Jinnah Hospital, KIRAN (Karachi Institute of Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine), and Civil hospital, where the data were available for the years 2004-2011. A total of 5331 new cases of female breast cancer were registered during this period. We analyzed the data in 5-year age groups 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75+. Nonparametric smoothing were used to obtained age-specific incidence curves, and then the curves are decomposed using principal components analysis to fit FTS (functional time series) model. We then used exponential smoothing statspace models to estimate the forecasts of incidence curve and construct prediction intervals. Results: The breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi increased with age for all available years. The rates increased monotonically and are relatively sharp with the age from 15 years to 50 years and then they show variability after the age of 50 years. 10-year forecasts for the female breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi show that the future rates are expected to remain stable for the age-groups 15-50 years, but they will increase for the females of 50-years and over. Hence in future, the newly diagnosed breast cancer cases in the older women in Karachi are expected to increase. Conclusion: Prediction of age

  14. SU-E-T-366: Estimation of Whole Body Dose From Cranial Irradiation From C and Perfexion Series Gamma Knife Units

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Srivastava, S [Indiana University Health Methodist Hospital, Indianapolis, IN (United States); Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, University Hospitals Case Medical Center, Cleaveland, OH (United States); Andersen, A; Lulu, B; Das, I [Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, University Hospitals Case Medical Center, Cleaveland, OH (United States); Cheng, C

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: The Leksell Gamma Knife (GK) B & C series contains 201 Cobalt-60 sources with a helmet. The new model, Perfexion uses 192 Cobalt-60 sources without a helmet; using IRIS system for collimation and stereotactic guidance to deliver SRS to brain tumors. Relative dose to extracranial organs at risk (OARs) is measured in phantom in this study for Perfexion and C-series GK. Materials & Methods: Measurements were performed in a Rando anthropomorphic phantom on both systems using a large ion chamber (Keithley-175) for each collimator. The Keithley-175 cc ion chamber was sandwiched between phantom slices at various locations in the phantom to correspond to different extracranial OARs (thyroid, heart, kidney, ovary and testis, etc.) The dose measurement was repeated with OSL detectors for each position and collimator. Results: A large variation is observed in the normalized dose between these two systems. The dose beyond the housing falls off exponentially for Perfexion. Dose beyond the C-series GK housing falls off exponentially from 0–20cm then remains relatively constant from 20–40cm and again falls off with distance but less rapidly. The variation of extracranial dose with distance for each collimator is found to be parallel to each other for both systems. Conclusion: Whole body dose is found to vary significantly between these systems. It is important to measure the extracranial dose, especially for young patients. It is estimated that dose falls off exponentially from the GK housing and is about 1% for large collimators at 75 cm. The dose is two-orders of magnitude smaller for the 4mm collimator. However, this small dose for patient may be significant radiologically.

  15. A comparison of monthly precipitation point estimates at 6 locations in Iran using integration of soft computing methods and GARCH time series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehdizadeh, Saeid; Behmanesh, Javad; Khalili, Keivan

    2017-11-01

    Precipitation plays an important role in determining the climate of a region. Precise estimation of precipitation is required to manage and plan water resources, as well as other related applications such as hydrology, climatology, meteorology and agriculture. Time series of hydrologic variables such as precipitation are composed of deterministic and stochastic parts. Despite this fact, the stochastic part of the precipitation data is not usually considered in modeling of precipitation process. As an innovation, the present study introduces three new hybrid models by integrating soft computing methods including multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), Bayesian networks (BN) and gene expression programming (GEP) with a time series model, namely generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) for modeling of the monthly precipitation. For this purpose, the deterministic (obtained by soft computing methods) and stochastic (obtained by GARCH time series model) parts are combined with each other. To carry out this research, monthly precipitation data of Babolsar, Bandar Anzali, Gorgan, Ramsar, Tehran and Urmia stations with different climates in Iran were used during the period of 1965-2014. Root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and determination coefficient (R2) were employed to evaluate the performance of conventional/single MARS, BN and GEP, as well as the proposed MARS-GARCH, BN-GARCH and GEP-GARCH hybrid models. It was found that the proposed novel models are more precise than single MARS, BN and GEP models. Overall, MARS-GARCH and BN-GARCH models yielded better accuracy than GEP-GARCH. The results of the present study confirmed the suitability of proposed methodology for precise modeling of precipitation.

  16. An estimation of tropospheric corrections using GPS and synoptic data: Improving Urmia Lake water level time series from Jason-2 and SARAL/AltiKa satellite altimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arabsahebi, Reza; Voosoghi, Behzad; Tourian, Mohammad J.

    2018-05-01

    Tropospheric correction is one of the most important corrections in satellite altimetry measurements. Tropospheric wet and dry path delays have strong dependence on temperature, pressure and humidity. Tropospheric layer has particularly high variability over coastal regions due to humidity, wind and temperature gradients. Depending on the extent of water body and wind conditions over an inland water, Wet Tropospheric Correction (WTC) is within the ranges from a few centimeters to tens of centimeters. Therefore, an extra care is needed to estimate tropospheric corrections on the altimetric measurements over inland waters. This study assesses the role of tropospheric correction on the altimetric measurements over the Urmia Lake in Iran. For this purpose, four types of tropospheric corrections have been used: (i) microwave radiometer (MWR) observations, (ii) tropospheric corrections computed from meteorological models, (iii) GPS observations and (iv) synoptic station data. They have been applied to Jason-2 track no. 133 and SARAL/AltiKa track no. 741 and 356 corresponding to 117-153 and the 23-34 cycles, respectively. In addition, the corresponding measurements of PISTACH and PEACHI, include new retracking method and an innovative wet tropospheric correction, have also been used. Our results show that GPS observation leads to the most accurate tropospheric correction. The results obtained from the PISTACH and PEACHI projects confirm those obtained with the standard SGDR, i.e., the role of GPS in improving the tropospheric corrections. It is inferred that the MWR data from Jason-2 mission is appropriate for the tropospheric corrections, however the SARAL/AltiKa one is not proper because Jason-2 possesses an enhanced WTC near the coast. Furthermore, virtual stations are defined for assessment of the results in terms of time series of Water Level Height (WLH). The results show that GPS tropospheric corrections lead to the most accurate WLH estimation for the selected

  17. Cross-Country Evidence on Teacher Performance Pay. Program on Education Policy and Governance Working Papers Series. PEPG 10-11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woessmann, Ludger

    2010-01-01

    The general-equilibrium effects of performance-related teacher pay include long-term incentive and teacher-sorting mechanisms that usually elude experimental studies but are captured in cross-country comparisons. Combining country-level performance-pay measures with rich PISA-2003 international achievement microdata, this paper estimates…

  18. Effective School Leaders. Q&A with Eric A. Hanushek, Ph.D. REL Mid-Atlantic Teacher Effectiveness Webinar Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic, 2014

    2014-01-01

    This webinar on effective school leaders discussed the important relationship between a school's socio-economic status, school leadership, and teacher turnover rate. Participants explored the major role of school leaders in fostering teacher effectiveness and discussed strategies they can use at the local level to increase school leader…

  19. Radiation Resistance and Life Time Estimates at Cryogenic Temperatures of Series Produced By-Pass Diodes for the LHC Magnet Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denz, R.; Gharib, A.; Hagedorn, D.

    2004-06-01

    For the protection of the LHC superconducting magnets about 2100 specially developed by-pass diodes have been manufactured in industry and more than one thousand of these diodes have been mounted into stacks and tested in liquid helium. By-pass diode samples, taken from the series production, have been submitted to irradiation tests at cryogenic temperatures together with some prototype diodes up to an accumulated dose of about 2 kGy and neutron fluences up to about 3.0 1013 n cm-2 with and without intermediate warm up to 300 K. The device characteristics of the diodes under forward bias and reverse bias have been measured at 77 K and ambient versus dose and the results are presented. Using a thermo-electrical model and new estimates for the expected dose in the LHC, the expected lifetime of the by-pass diodes has been estimated for various positions in the LHC arcs. It turns out that for all of the by-pass diodes across the arc elements the radiation resistance is largely sufficient. In the dispersion suppresser regions of the LHC, on a few diodes annual annealing during the shut down of the LHC must be applied or those diodes may need to be replaced after some time.

  20. Estimating daily time series of streamflow using hydrological model calibrated based on satellite observations of river water surface width: Toward real world applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenchao; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Bastola, Satish; Yu, Jingshan

    2015-05-01

    Lacking observation data for calibration constrains applications of hydrological models to estimate daily time series of streamflow. Recent improvements in remote sensing enable detection of river water-surface width from satellite observations, making possible the tracking of streamflow from space. In this study, a method calibrating hydrological models using river width derived from remote sensing is demonstrated through application to the ungauged Irrawaddy Basin in Myanmar. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is selected as a tool for automatic calibration and uncertainty analysis. Of 50,000 randomly generated parameter sets, 997 are identified as behavioral, based on comparing model simulation with satellite observations. The uncertainty band of streamflow simulation can span most of 10-year average monthly observed streamflow for moderate and high flow conditions. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 95.7% for the simulated streamflow at the 50% quantile. These results indicate that application to the target basin is generally successful. Beyond evaluating the method in a basin lacking streamflow data, difficulties and possible solutions for applications in the real world are addressed to promote future use of the proposed method in more ungauged basins. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Por Que Rosa No Es Valiente? Cuarto Modulo de una Serie para Maestros de Escuela Elemental (Why Isn't Rosie Brave? Fourth Module of a Series for Elementary School Teachers).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Carmen Eneida, Ed.; And Others

    This guide in English and Spanish provides teachers with methods for identifying textbook bias and stereotyping. A pre-test and post-test designed to measure awareness of textbook stereotypes are included. Four object lessons discuss the function of repetition, cumulative effect, omission, and distortion in reinforcing stereotypes, especially…

  2. Por Que Mami No Puede Cambiar una Goma? Tercer Modulo de una Serie para Maestros de Escuela Elemental. (Why Can't Mommy Change a Flat Tire? Third Module of a Series for Elementary School Teachers).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Carmen Eneida, Ed.; And Others

    This guide for teachers, in English and Spanish, examines the role parents play in the socialization of sex roles. A pre-test and post test are included to measure the user's awareness of sexual stereotyping. Five object lessons cover the following topics: (1) stereotypes which exist prior to a baby's birth; (2) behavioral standards on which…

  3. Una Escoba para Ana, Cien Oficios para Juan. Quinto Modulo de una Serie para Maestros de Escuela Elemental. (A Broom for Anna, A Hundred Jobs for John. Fifth Module of a Series for Elementary School Teachers).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Carmen Eneida, Ed.; And Others

    This guide for teachers, in English and Spanish, examines the stereotyped work roles assigned to men and women. The guide examines educational materials that perpetuate these roles and presents teaching alternatives which reinforce students' self esteem and confidence. A pre-test and post-test are included to measure the user's awareness of…

  4. "Feeling" Series and Parallel Resistances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Robert A.

    1993-01-01

    Equipped with drinking straws and stirring straws, a teacher can help students understand how resistances in electric circuits combine in series and in parallel. Follow-up suggestions are provided. (ZWH)

  5. Estimation and Validation of RapidEye-Based Time-Series of Leaf Area Index for Winter Wheat in the Rur Catchment (Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ali

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Leaf Area Index (LAI is an important variable for numerous processes in various disciplines of bio- and geosciences. In situ measurements are the most accurate source of LAI among the LAI measuring methods, but the in situ measurements have the limitation of being labor intensive and site specific. For spatial-explicit applications (from regional to continental scales, satellite remote sensing is a promising source for obtaining LAI with different spatial resolutions. However, satellite-derived LAI measurements using empirical models require calibration and validation with the in situ measurements. In this study, we attempted to validate a direct LAI retrieval method from remotely sensed images (RapidEye with in situ LAI (LAIdestr. Remote sensing LAI (LAIrapideye were derived using different vegetation indices, namely SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. Additionally, applicability of the newly available red-edge band (RE was also analyzed through Normalized Difference Red-Edge index (NDRE and Soil Adjusted Red-Edge index (SARE. The LAIrapideye obtained from vegetation indices with red-edge band showed better correlation with LAIdestr (r = 0.88 and Root Mean Square Devation, RMSD = 1.01 & 0.92. This study also investigated the need to apply radiometric/atmospheric correction methods to the time-series of RapidEye Level 3A data prior to LAI estimation. Analysis of the the RapidEye Level 3A data set showed that application of the radiometric/atmospheric correction did not improve correlation of the estimated LAI with in situ LAI.

  6. A Big Data Approach for Situation-Aware estimation, correction and prediction of aerosol effects, based on MODIS Joint Atmosphere product (collection 6) time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, A. K.; Toshniwal, D.

    2017-12-01

    The MODIS Joint Atmosphere product, MODATML2 and MYDATML2 L2/3 provided by LAADS DAAC (Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive & Distribution System Distributed Active Archive Center) re-sampled from medium resolution MODIS Terra /Aqua Satellites data at 5km scale, contains Cloud Reflectance, Cloud Top Temperature, Water Vapor, Aerosol Optical Depth/Thickness, Humidity data. These re-sampled data, when used for deriving climatic effects of aerosols (particularly in case of cooling effect) still exposes limitations in presence of uncertainty measures in atmospheric artifacts such as aerosol, cloud, cirrus cloud etc. The effect of uncertainty measures in these artifacts imposes an important challenge for estimation of aerosol effects, adequately affecting precise regional weather modeling and predictions: Forecasting and recommendation applications developed largely depend on these short-term local conditions (e.g. City/Locality based recommendations to citizens/farmers based on local weather models). Our approach inculcates artificial intelligence technique for representing heterogeneous data(satellite data along with air quality data from local weather stations (i.e. in situ data)) to learn, correct and predict aerosol effects in the presence of cloud and other atmospheric artifacts, defusing Spatio-temporal correlations and regressions. The Big Data process pipeline consisting correlation and regression techniques developed on Apache Spark platform can easily scale for large data sets including many tiles (scenes) and over widened time-scale. Keywords: Climatic Effects of Aerosols, Situation-Aware, Big Data, Apache Spark, MODIS Terra /Aqua, Time Series

  7. Design of a New Concentration Series for the Orthogonal Sample Design Approach and Estimation of the Number of Reactions in Chemical Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Jiajia; Liu, Yuhai; Guo, Ran; Li, Xiaopei; He, Anqi; Gao, Yunlong; Wei, Yongju; Liu, Cuige; Zhao, Ying; Xu, Yizhuang; Noda, Isao; Wu, Jinguang

    2015-11-01

    A new concentration series is proposed for the construction of a two-dimensional (2D) synchronous spectrum for orthogonal sample design analysis to probe intermolecular interaction between solutes dissolved in the same solutions. The obtained 2D synchronous spectrum possesses the following two properties: (1) cross peaks in the 2D synchronous spectra can be used to reflect intermolecular interaction reliably, since interference portions that have nothing to do with intermolecular interaction are completely removed, and (2) the two-dimensional synchronous spectrum produced can effectively avoid accidental collinearity. Hence, the correct number of nonzero eigenvalues can be obtained so that the number of chemical reactions can be estimated. In a real chemical system, noise present in one-dimensional spectra may also produce nonzero eigenvalues. To get the correct number of chemical reactions, we classified nonzero eigenvalues into significant nonzero eigenvalues and insignificant nonzero eigenvalues. Significant nonzero eigenvalues can be identified by inspecting the pattern of the corresponding eigenvector with help of the Durbin-Watson statistic. As a result, the correct number of chemical reactions can be obtained from significant nonzero eigenvalues. This approach provides a solid basis to obtain insight into subtle spectral variations caused by intermolecular interaction.

  8. Incredible Years Parent, Teachers and Children's Series: Transportability to Portugal of Early Intervention Programs for Preventing Conduct Problems and Promoting Social and Emotional Competence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolyn Webster-Stratton

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Disruptive behavior disorders in children are on the increase. However, there is evidence that the younger a child is at the time of intervention, the more positive the behavioral effects on his/her adjustment at home and at school. Parental education might be an effective way of addressing early problems. The Incredible Years (IY programs were designed to prevent and treat behavior problems when they first appear (in infancy-toddlerhood through middle childhood and to intervene in multiple areas through parent, teacher, and child training. This paper summarizes the literature demonstrating the impact of the IY parent, teacher and child intervention programs, and describes in more detail the work done in Portugal so far to disseminate IY programs with fidelity, with particular emphasis on the IY Basic Preschool Parenting and Teacher Classroom Management programs.

  9. Estimating Time Series Soil Moisture by Applying Recurrent Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Networks to Passive Microwave Data over the Heihe River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Lu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A method using a nonlinear auto-regressive neural network with exogenous input (NARXnn to retrieve time series soil moisture (SM that is spatially and temporally continuous and high quality over the Heihe River Basin (HRB in China was investigated in this study. The input training data consisted of the X-band dual polarization brightness temperature (TB and the Ka-band V polarization TB from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer II (AMSR2, Global Land Satellite product (GLASS Leaf Area Index (LAI, precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM, and a global 30 arc-second elevation (GTOPO-30. The output training data were generated from fused SM products of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA and the Land Surface Parameter Model (LPRM. The reprocessed fused SM from two years (2013 and 2014 was inputted into the NARXnn for training; subsequently, SM during a third year (2015 was estimated. Direct and indirect validations were then performed during the period 2015 by comparing with in situ measurements, SM from JAXA, LPRM and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS, as well as precipitation data from TRMM and GPM. The results showed that the SM predictions from NARXnn performed best, as indicated by their higher correlation coefficients (R ≥ 0.85 for the whole year of 2015, lower Bias values (absolute value of Bias ≤ 0.02 and root mean square error values (RMSE ≤ 0.06, and their improved response to precipitation. This method is being used to produce the NARXnn SM product over the HRB in China.

  10. Matematicas en la vida actual. Volumen III, edicion para el maestro. (Mathematics: A Practical View. Volume III, Teacher Edition). Applied Basic Curriculum Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evaluation, Dissemination and Assessment Center, Dallas.

    This Spanish language teacher's edition of a practical mathematics text for the intermediate grades contains three components which can be structured in different combinations according to different student needs. Built around a review of selected objectives in the mathematics basic curriculum, the material is intended to stimulate interest in…

  11. Matematicas en la vida actual. Volumen I, edicion para el maestro. (Mathematics: A Practical View. Volume I, Teacher Edition). Applied Basic Curriculum Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evaluation, Dissemination and Assessment Center, Dallas.

    This Spanish language teacher's edition of a practical mathematics text for the intermediate grades contains three components which can be structured in different combinations according to different student needs. Built around a review of selected objectives in the mathematics basic curriculum, the material is intended to stimulate interest in…

  12. Matematicas en la vida actual. Volumen II, edicion para el maestro. (Mathematics: A Practical View. Volume II, Teacher Edition). Applied Basic Curriculum Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evaluation, Dissemination and Assessment Center, Dallas.

    This Spanish language teacher's edition of a practical mathematics text for the intermediate grades contains three components which can be structured in different combinations according to different student needs. Built around a review of selected objectives in the mathematics basic curriculum, the material is intended to stimulate interest in…

  13. Effective Differentiation: A Guide for Teachers and Leaders. Q&A for Carol A. Tomlinson, Ed.D. REL Mid-Atlantic Educator Effectiveness Webinar Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic, 2015

    2015-01-01

    In this webinar, Dr. Carol Tomlinson of the University of Virginia presented the research base supporting the practice of differentiation and described the characteristics of effective differentiation. She led a discussion of how quality preparation can build and strengthen teachers' knowledge and skills in implementing differentiated instruction…

  14. Role Model Effects of Female STEM Teachers and Doctors on Early 20th Century University Enrollment in California. Research & Occasional Paper Series: CSHE.10.16

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleemer, Zach

    2016-01-01

    What was the role of imperfect local information in the growth, gender gap, and STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) major selection of early 20th century American universities? In order to examine pre-1950 American higher education, this study constructs four rich panel datasets covering most students, high school teachers, and…

  15. Fundamentals of Learning. From the College and Career Ready Standards to Teaching and Learning in the Classroom: A Series of Resources for Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heritage, Margaret; Jones, Barbara; Tobiason, Glory; Chang, Sandy; Herman, Joan

    2015-01-01

    This publication provides a framework, the Fundamentals of Learning (FOL), to assist teachers in transitioning to the classroom practices called for in the College- and Career-Ready Standards (CCRS). The content of this resource is drawn from leading theory and research about learning and assessment and from an examination of the Common Core State…

  16. District Costs for Teacher Health Insurance: An Examination of the Data from the BLS and Wisconsin. The Productivity for Results Series No. 8

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costrell, Robert M.

    2015-01-01

    Rising health insurance costs have been a source of fiscal distress for school districts. In this paper, I closely examine data from the National Compensation Survey (NCS) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to address a few basic questions: (1) Are district costs for teachers' health insurance higher, on average, than employer costs for…

  17. Fourier series

    CERN Document Server

    Tolstov, Georgi P

    1962-01-01

    Richard A. Silverman's series of translations of outstanding Russian textbooks and monographs is well-known to people in the fields of mathematics, physics, and engineering. The present book is another excellent text from this series, a valuable addition to the English-language literature on Fourier series.This edition is organized into nine well-defined chapters: Trigonometric Fourier Series, Orthogonal Systems, Convergence of Trigonometric Fourier Series, Trigonometric Series with Decreasing Coefficients, Operations on Fourier Series, Summation of Trigonometric Fourier Series, Double Fourie

  18. Analysing Stable Time Series

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Adler, Robert

    1997-01-01

    We describe how to take a stable, ARMA, time series through the various stages of model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking, and accompany the discussion with a goodly number...

  19. Science Education and Teacher Effectiveness: Implications of the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS): Q&A with Chris Wilson, Ph.D., and Jody Bintz, M.S. REL Mid-Atlantic Teacher Effectiveness Webinar Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic, 2014

    2014-01-01

    This webinar explored how the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) provide an instructional framework to support professional growth and inform teacher evaluation systems for science instruction. This Q&A addressed the questions participants had for Dr. Wilson and Jody Bintz following the webinar. The webinar recording and PowerPoint…

  20. Invitations to Life's Diversity. Teacher-Friendly Science Activities with Reproducible Handouts in English and Spanish. Grades 3-5. Living Things Science Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Carole Ann, Ed.

    This booklet, one of six in the Living Things Science series, presents activities about diversity and classification of living things which address basic "Benchmarks" suggested by the American Association for the Advancement of Science for the Living Environment for grades 3-5. Contents include background information, vocabulary (in…

  1. Potential Biases in the Estimation of the Delay Time in Multivariate Time Series: An application to Climate Data and Functional Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, E.; Davidsen, J.; Complexity Science Group

    2011-12-01

    Measuring cross-correlations is of vital importance to science in general and is a key ingredient in functional networks, which are being widely applied to geophysical systems. A functional network is a collection of nodes (e.g. global positions), and two nodes are connected by a link if their joint behaviour satisfies some criteria. In most cases each node is associated with a time series, and a link is created between two nodes if their time series have a cross-correlation that is deemed significant. However, the spatial distance between nodes and the resolution of the time series, Δ t, can mean that it is unphysical for a signal to propagate from one node to another within a time Δ t. One way to account for this is to measure the cross-correlation at a number of different time lags and use the time delay for which it is a maximum. Here we show that this method is biased for a large class of time series that are common to geophysical systems, namely long-range correlated time series. These are time series which show persistence, for example, a warm day is more likely to be followed by another warm day than a cold one. If one randomly generates two series which each have long-range correlations, the naive assumption is that the maximum cross-correlation between them is equally likely to be found at every time lag. However, the cross-correlation between the series is more likely to be a maximum at the largest and smallest (in this work we allow time lags to be negative) time lags measured. This is a systematic effect which can, and should, be corrected for when judging if a correlation is significant. Whereas the traditional null model is that each time lag is equally likely to give the maximum cross-correlation, our work provides a more correct null model for this class of systems. We apply this to climate data, as well as go on to discuss other potential issues when measuring cross-correlations in this context.

  2. Historical estimates of external gamma exposure and collective external gamma exposure from testing at the Nevada Test Site. I. Test series through HARDTACK II, 1958

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anspaugh, L.R.; Church, B.W.

    1985-12-01

    In 1959, the Test Manager's Committee to Establish Fallout Doses calculated estimated external gamma exposure at populated locations based upon measurements of external gamma-exposure rate. Using these calculations and estimates of population, we have tabulated the collective estimated external gamma exposures for communities within established fallout patterns. The total collective estimated external gamma exposure is 85,000 person-R. The greatest collective exposures occurred in three general areas: Saint George, Utah; Ely, Nevada; and Las Vegas, Nevada. Three events, HARRY (May 19, 1953), BEE (March 22, 1955), and SMOKY (August 31, 1957), accounted for over half of the total collective estimated external gamma exposure. The bases of the calculational models for external gamma exposure of ''infinite exposure,'' ''estimated exposure,'' and ''one year effective biological exposure'' are explained. 4 figs., 7 tabs.

  3. Historical estimates of external gamma exposure and collective external gamma exposure from testing at the Nevada Test Site. I. Test series through HARDTACK II, 1958

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anspaugh, L.R.; Church, B.W.

    1986-01-01

    In 1959, the Test Manager's Committee to Establish Fallout Doses calculated estimated external gamma exposure at populated locations based upon measurements of external gamma-exposure rate. Using these calculations and estimates of population, we have tabulated the collective estimated external gamma exposures for communities within established fallout patterns. The total collective estimated external gamma exposure is 85,000 person-R. The greatest collective exposures occurred in three general areas: Saint George, UT; Ely, NV; and Las Vegas, NV. Three events, HARRY (19 May 1953), BEE (22 March 1955), and SMOKY (31 August 1957), accounted for more than half the total collective estimated external gamma exposure. The bases of the calculational models for external gamma exposure of infinite exposure, estimated exposure, and 1-yr effective biological exposure are explained

  4. Historical estimates of external gamma exposure and collective external gamma exposure from testing at the Nevada Test Site. I. Test series through HARDTACK II, 1958

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anspaugh, L.R.; Church, B.W.

    1985-12-01

    In 1959, the Test Manager's Committee to Establish Fallout Doses calculated estimated external gamma exposure at populated locations based upon measurements of external gamma-exposure rate. Using these calculations and estimates of population, we have tabulated the collective estimated external gamma exposures for communities within established fallout patterns. The total collective estimated external gamma exposure is 85,000 person-R. The greatest collective exposures occurred in three general areas: Saint George, Utah; Ely, Nevada; and Las Vegas, Nevada. Three events, HARRY (May 19, 1953), BEE (March 22, 1955), and SMOKY (August 31, 1957), accounted for over half of the total collective estimated external gamma exposure. The bases of the calculational models for external gamma exposure of ''infinite exposure,'' ''estimated exposure,'' and ''one year effective biological exposure'' are explained. 4 figs., 7 tabs

  5. Use of a C-SITS Approach to Estimating the Impact of the Receipt of a Teacher Recruitment Incentive Grant on an IHE's Production of Certified STEM Teachers--Problems and Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobronnikov, Ellen; Price, Cris

    2013-01-01

    Improving the quality of teacher preparation is an important national issue, because the quality of teaching plays such a large role in students' learning. One key indicator of students' academic success is the competence and capability of their teachers. However, the availability of well-prepared and effective teachers varies widely across the…

  6. Infinite series

    CERN Document Server

    Hirschman, Isidore Isaac

    2014-01-01

    This text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students presents a rigorous approach that also emphasizes applications. Encompassing more than the usual amount of material on the problems of computation with series, the treatment offers many applications, including those related to the theory of special functions. Numerous problems appear throughout the book.The first chapter introduces the elementary theory of infinite series, followed by a relatively complete exposition of the basic properties of Taylor series and Fourier series. Additional subjects include series of functions and the app

  7. Motivation in school physical education: practice reports to teachers to students of 3rd secondary education series of state network paulista

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo César Cedran

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In the current design of School Physical Education the figure of the teacher should represent the mediation between knoledge and the teaching-learning process. So, thinking about the importance of the role that Professional in motivating students to participate in physical education classes, this paper aims reporting these experiences in building a concepto f physical education to arouse student’s interest in knowing it and the habito f practicing it. In this sense, our goal is to investigate and compare with schools in Pitangueiras/SP and Jaboticabal/SP cities, the motivational level of students in 3rd grade of High School in Physical Education classes, from the official curriculum implemented by the Department of Education of the State of São Paulo (ESS/SP in 2008.

  8. Comparison of the Gen Expression Programming, Nonlinear Time Series and Artificial Neural Network in Estimating the River Daily Flow (Case Study: The Karun River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Zamani

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Today, the daily flow forecasting of rivers is an important issue in hydrology and water resources and thus can be used the results of daily river flow modeling in water resources management, droughts and floods monitoring. In this study, due to the importance of this issue, using nonlinear time series models and artificial intelligence (Artificial Neural Network and Gen Expression Programming, the daily flow modeling has been at the time interval (1981-2012 in the Armand hydrometric station on the Karun River. Armand station upstream basin is one of the most basins in the North Karun basin and includes four sub basins (Vanak, Middle Karun, Beheshtabad and Kohrang.The results of this study shown that artificial intelligence models have superior than nonlinear time series in flow daily simulation in the Karun River. As well as, modeling and comparison of artificial intelligence models showed that the Gen Expression Programming have evaluation criteria better than artificial neural network.

  9. Los padres como consejeros o coparticipes en la toma de decisiones. Serie E: [E1] logro de la participacion de los padres. cuaderno 3. Edicion para el maestro. Cuadernos para el entrenamiento de maestros de educacion bilingue. (Parents as Advisors or Participants in Decision Making. Series E: Parent Participation, Book 3. Teacher Edition. Bilingual Education Teacher Training Packet).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Rodolfo, Comp.

    This guide on training bilingual education teachers focuses on parents as advisors in the decision making process at bilingual schools. The two units, "An Introduction to Parent Participation" and "Parent Participation in Educational Decision Making," include objectives, definitions of terms, lists of materials and equipment, and learning…

  10. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 31; Global Surface Ocean Carbon Estimates in a Model Forced by MERRA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2013-01-01

    MERRA products were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate surface carbon inventories and fluxes in the global oceans. The results were compared to public archives of in situ carbon data and estimates. The model exhibited skill for ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), partial pressure of ocean CO2 (pCO2) and air-sea fluxes (FCO2). The MERRA-forced model produced global mean differences of 0.02% (approximately 0.3 microns) for DIC, -0.3% (about -1.2 (micro) atm; model lower) for pCO2, and -2.3% (-0.003 mol C/sq m/y) for FCO2 compared to in situ estimates. Basin-scale distributions were significantly correlated with observations for all three variables (r=0.97, 0.76, and 0.73, P<0.05, respectively for DIC, pCO2, and FCO2). All major oceanographic basins were represented as sources to the atmosphere or sinks in agreement with in situ estimates. However, there were substantial basin-scale and local departures.

  11. [PDF] from biogeosciences.net Global estimates of carbon stock changes in living forest biomass: EDGARv4. 3–time series from 1990 to 2010

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petrescu, A.M.R.; Abad-Vinas, Raul; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Blujdea, Viorel; Grassi, Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all countries of the

  12. Chart Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) offers several different Chart Series with data on beneficiary health status, spending, operations, and quality...

  13. Time series analysis for the estimation of tidal fluctuation effect on different aquifers in a small coastal area of Saijo plain, Ehime prefecture, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Pankaj; Tsujimura, Maki; Nakano, Takanori; Minoru, Tokumasu

    2013-04-01

    Considering the current poor understanding of the seawater-freshwater (SW-FW) interaction pattern at dynamic hydro-geological boundary of coastal aquifers, this work strives to study tidal effect on groundwater quality using chemical tracers combined with environmental isotopes. In situ measurement data of electrical conductivity and groundwater level along with laboratory measurement data of hydro-chemical species were compared with tidal level data measured by Hydrographic and Oceanographic Department, Saijo City, Japan for time series analysis. Result shows that diurnal tides have significant effect on groundwater level as well as its chemical characteristics; however, the magnitude of effect is different in case of different aquifers. Various scatter diagrams were plotted in order to infer mechanisms responsible for water quality change with tidal phase, and results show that cations exchange, selective movement and local SW-FW mixing were likely to be the main processes responsible for water quality changes. It was also found that geological structure of the aquifers is the most important factor affecting the intensity of tidal effect on water quality.

  14. An Estimation of the Likelihood of Significant Eruptions During 2000-2009 Using Poisson Statistics on Two-Point Moving Averages of the Volcanic Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2001-01-01

    Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (volcanic explosivity index (VEI)>=4) per decade spans 2-11, with 96 percent located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere. A two-point moving average of the volcanic time series has higher values since the 1860's than before, being 8.00 in the 1910's (the highest value) and 6.50 in the 1980's, the highest since the 1910's peak. Because of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that its value for the 1990's will measure approximately 6.50 +/- 1, implying that approximately 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially those having VEI>=5) nearly always have been associated with short-term episodes of global cooling, the occurrence of even one might confuse our ability to assess the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more events with a VEI>=4 within the next ten years is >99 percent. It is approximately 49 percent for an event with a VEI>=5, and 18 percent for an event with a VEI>=6. Hence, the likelihood that a climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next ten years appears reasonably high.

  15. Case Series

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    calciphylaxis is prevention through rigorous control of phosphate and calcium balance. We here present two ... The authors declared no conflict of interest. Introduction. Calciphylaxis is a rare but serious disorder .... were reported to resolve the calciphylaxis lesions in a chronic renal failure patient [20]. In a series of five.

  16. Fourier Series

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    polynomials are dense in the class of continuous functions! The body of literature dealing with Fourier series has reached epic proportions over the last two centuries. We have only given the readers an outline of the topic in this article. For the full length episode we refer the reader to the monumental treatise of. A Zygmund.

  17. Case series

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abp

    13 oct. 2017 ... This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution ... Bifocal leg fractures pose many challenges for the surgeon due to .... Dans notre serie, le taux d'infection est reste dans un.

  18. Fourier Series

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The theory of Fourier series deals with periodic functions. By a periodic ..... including Dirichlet, Riemann and Cantor occupied themselves with the problem of ... to converge only on a set which is negligible in a certain sense (Le. of measure ...

  19. case series

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    Key words: Case report, case series, concept analysis, research design. African Health Sciences 2012; (4): 557 - 562 http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ahs.v12i4.25. PO Box 17666 .... According to the latest version of the Dictionary of. Epidemiology ...

  20. Mapping Congo Basin vegetation types from 300 m and 1 km multi-sensor time series for carbon stocks and forest areas estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Verhegghen

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to contribute to the understanding of the Congo Basin forests by delivering a detailed map of vegetation types with an improved spatial discrimination and coherence for the whole Congo Basin region. A total of 20 land cover classes were described with the standardized Land Cover Classification System (LCCS developed by the FAO. Based on a semi-automatic processing chain, the Congo Basin vegetation types map was produced by combining 19 months of observations from the Envisat MERIS full resolution products (300 m and 8 yr of daily SPOT VEGETATION (VGT reflectances (1 km. Four zones (north, south and two central were delineated and processed separately according to their seasonal and cloud cover specificities. The discrimination between different vegetation types (e.g. forest and savannas was significantly improved thanks to the MERIS sharp spatial resolution. A better discrimination was achieved in cloudy areas by taking advantage of the temporal consistency of the SPOT VGT observations. This resulted in a precise delineation of the spatial extent of the rural complex in the countries situated along the Atlantic coast. Based on this new map, more accurate estimates of the surface areas of forest types were produced for each country of the Congo Basin. Carbon stocks of the Basin were evaluated to a total of 49 360 million metric tons. The regional scale of the map was an opportunity to investigate what could be an appropriate tree cover threshold for a forest class definition in the Congo Basin countries. A 30% tree cover threshold was suggested. Furthermore, the phenology of the different vegetation types was illustrated systematically with EVI temporal profiles. This Congo Basin forest types map reached a satisfactory overall accuracy of 71.5% and even 78.9% when some classes are aggregated. The values of the Cohen's kappa coefficient, respectively 0.64 and 0.76 indicates a result significantly better than random.

  1. Predicting chaotic time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, J.D.; Sidorowich, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    We present a forecasting technique for chaotic data. After embedding a time series in a state space using delay coordinates, we ''learn'' the induced nonlinear mapping using local approximation. This allows us to make short-term predictions of the future behavior of a time series, using information based only on past values. We present an error estimate for this technique, and demonstrate its effectiveness by applying it to several examples, including data from the Mackey-Glass delay differential equation, Rayleigh-Benard convection, and Taylor-Couette flow

  2. Time Series with Long Memory

    OpenAIRE

    西埜, 晴久

    2004-01-01

    The paper investigates an application of long-memory processes to economic time series. We show properties of long-memory processes, which are motivated to model a long-memory phenomenon in economic time series. An FARIMA model is described as an example of long-memory model in statistical terms. The paper explains basic limit theorems and estimation methods for long-memory processes in order to apply long-memory models to economic time series.

  3. Use of time series of optical and SAR images in the estimation of snow cover for the optimization of water use in the Andes of Argentina and Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas de Salmuni, Graciela; Cabezas Cartes, Ricardo; Menicocci, Felix

    2014-05-01

    This paper describes the progress in the bilateral cooperation project between academic and water resources management institutions from the Andes region of Argentina and Chile. The study zone is located in fragile ecosystems and mountain areas of the Andes (limit zone between the Province of San Juan, Argentina, and the IV Region of Coquimbo, Chile), with arid climate, where snow precipitates in the headwaters of watershed feed the rivers of the region by melting, which are the only source of water for human use, productive and energetic activities, as well as the native flora and fauna. CONAE, the Argentine Space Agency, participates in the Project through the provision of satellite data to the users and by this it contributes to ensuring the continuity of the results of the project. Also, it provides training in digital image processing. The project also includes the participation of water resource management institutions like Secretaria de Recursos Hidricos of Argentina and the Centro de Información de Recursos Naturales de Chile (CIREN), and of academic institution like the University of San Juan (Argentina) and University of La Serena (Chile). These institutions benefit from the incorporation of new methodologies advanced digital image processing and training of staff (researcher, lecturers, PhD Students and technical). Objectives: 1-Improve water distribution incorporating space technology for application in the prediction models of the stream flow. 2- Conduct an inventory of glaciers as well as studies in selected watersheds in the Andean region, aiming to know the water resource, its availability and potential risks to communities in the region. 3. Contribute to vulnerability studies in biodiversity Andean watersheds. Results: For estimation Snow cover Area, the MODIS images are appropriate due their high temporal resolution and allows for monitoring large areas (greater than 10 km) The proposed methodology (Use of snow index, NSDI) is appropriate for

  4. Exposures series

    OpenAIRE

    Stimson, Blake

    2011-01-01

    Reaktion Books’ Exposures series, edited by Peter Hamilton and Mark Haworth-Booth, is comprised of 13 volumes and counting, each less than 200 pages with 80 high-quality illustrations in color and black and white. Currently available titles include Photography and Australia, Photography and Spirit, Photography and Cinema, Photography and Literature, Photography and Flight, Photography and Egypt, Photography and Science, Photography and Africa, Photography and Italy, Photography and the USA, P...

  5. On the estimate of deviations of partial sums of a multiple Fourier-Walsh series of the form S2j,⋯,2jf (x ) of a function in the metric L1(Qk)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igenberlina, Alua; Matin, Dauren; Turgumbayev, Mendybay

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, deviations of the partial sums of a multiple Fourier-Walsh series of a function in the metric L1(Qk) on a dyadic group are investigated. This estimate plays an important role in the study of equivalent normalizations in this space by means of a difference, oscillation, and best approximation by polynomials in the Walsh system. The classical classical Besov space and its equivalent normalizations are set forth in the well-known monographs of Nikolsky S.M., Besov O.V., Ilyin V.P., Triebel H.; in the works of Kazakh scientists such as Amanov T.I., Mynbaev K.T., Otelbaev M.O., Smailov E.S.. The Besov spaces on the dyadic group and the Vilenkin groups in the one-dimensional case are considered in works by Ombe H., Bloom Walter R, Fournier J., Onneweer C.W., Weyi S., Jun Tateoka.

  6. Rules in School. Strategies for Teachers Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Kathryn; Forton, Mary Beth; Porter, Deborah; Wood, Chip

    This book offers an approach for helping K-8 students become invested in creating and living by classroom rules. It provides techniques for: helping students articulate their hopes and dreams for school; involving students in generating classroom rules that grow out of their hopes and dreams; modeling, practicing, and role playing the rules; using…

  7. Interior Design: Teacher's Instructional Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Tricia

    This teacher's instructional guide, which is part of a family and consumer sciences education series focusing on a broad range of employment opportunities, is intended to assist teachers responsible for teaching one- and two-year interior design programs for Texas high school students. The following are among the items included: (1) introductory…

  8. Multivariate Time Series Estimation using marima

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spliid, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    A computer program, called marima, written in the open source language, R, has been developed. Some of marima’s facilities and ideas are presented in the following.......A computer program, called marima, written in the open source language, R, has been developed. Some of marima’s facilities and ideas are presented in the following....

  9. Case Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetrayan, Jayachandran; Othman, Suhana; Victor Paulraj, Smily Jesu Priya

    2017-01-01

    To assess the effectiveness and feasibility of behavioral sleep intervention for medicated children with ADHD. Six medicated children (five boys, one girl; aged 6-12 years) with ADHD participated in a 4-week sleep intervention program. The main behavioral strategies used were Faded Bedtime With Response Cost (FBRC) and positive reinforcement. Within a case-series design, objective measure (Sleep Disturbance Scale for Children [SDSC]) and subjective measure (sleep diaries) were used to record changes in children's sleep. For all six children, significant decrease was found in the severity of children's sleep problems (based on SDSC data). Bedtime resistance and mean sleep onset latency were reduced following the 4-week intervention program according to sleep diaries data. Gains were generally maintained at the follow-up. Parents perceived the intervention as being helpful. Based on the initial data, this intervention shows promise as an effective and feasible treatment.

  10. Water Pollution, Teachers' Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavaroni, Charles W.; And Others

    One of three in a series about pollution, this teacher's guide for a unit on water pollution is designed for use in junior high school grades. It offers suggestions for extending the information and activities contained in the textual material for students. Chapter 1 discusses the problem of water pollution and involves students in processes of…

  11. Noise Pollution, Teachers' Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Patrick A.; Lavaroni, Charles W.

    One of three in a series about pollution, this teacher's guide for a unit on noise pollution is designed for use in junior high school grades. It offers suggestions for extending the information and activities contained in the textual material for students. Chapter 1 discusses the problem of noise pollution and involves students in processes of…

  12. Teachers' Views on the Impact of Teacher-Student Relationships on School Dropout: A Bourdieusian Analysis of Misrecognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nairz-Wirth, Erna; Feldmann, Klaus

    2017-01-01

    Drawing on Pierre Bourdieu's relational theory this paper shows that many teachers misrecognize the impact of teacher-student relationships on school dropout. The study is based on a series of 60 semi-structured interviews with teachers from Austrian secondary schools. The analysis of the empirical data reveals that many teachers attribute school…

  13. DCP Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Stearns

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Photo essay. A collection of Images produced by intentionally corrupting the circuitry of a Kodak DC280 2 MP digitalcamera. By rewiring the electronics of a digital camera, glitched images are produced in a manner that parallels chemically processing unexposed film or photographic paper to produce photographic images without exposure to light. The DCP Series of Digital Images are direct visualizations of data generated by a digital camera as it takes a picture. Electronic processes associated with the normal operations of the camera, which are usually taken for granted, are revealed through an act of intervention. The camera is turned inside­out through complexes of short­circuits, selected by the artist, transforming the camera from a picture taking device to a data capturing device that renders raw data (electronic signals as images. In essence, these images are snap­shots of electronic signals dancing through the camera's circuits, manually rerouted, written directly to the on­board memory device. Rather than seeing images of the world through a lens, we catch a glimpse of what the camera sees when it is forced to peer inside its own mind.

  14. The MetLife Survey of the American Teacher: Listening to Teachers in Rural Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    MetLife, Inc., 2013

    2013-01-01

    MetLife has sponsored and Harris Interactive has conducted the annual MetLife Survey of the American Teacher series since 1984 to share the voices of teachers with educators, policymakers and the public. The series examines significant changes and trends over time, highlights important current issues, and explores topics relevant to the future of…

  15. Teacher induction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beijaard, D.; Buitink, J.; Kessels, C.; Peterson, P.; Baker, E.; McGraw, B.

    2010-01-01

    Teacher induction programs are intended to support the professional development of beginning teachers and thereby contribute to the reduction of teacher attrition during the early teaching years. Teacher induction programs are often based upon a deficit model with a focus on the better organization

  16. Index to the Understanding the Atom Series

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1978-01-01

    The U. S. Atomic Energy Commission publishes the Understanding the Atom Series of educational booklets for high school science students and their teachers. This series explains many aspects of nuclear science including its history and applications. Because these 51 booklets cover such a variety of scientific fields, this index was prepared to help the reader find quickly those booklets that contain the information he needs.

  17. Teacher expertise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jens

    Teacher Expertise: How to improve the relationship between Theory and Practice in Teacher Education Jens Rasmussen, Department of Education, Aarhus University In several studies and reports it has been nailed over and over that teachers’ matter. So this is not the question in this study. The ques......Teacher Expertise: How to improve the relationship between Theory and Practice in Teacher Education Jens Rasmussen, Department of Education, Aarhus University In several studies and reports it has been nailed over and over that teachers’ matter. So this is not the question in this study....... The question is how teacher preparation leads to effective teachers. The study Expert in Teaching paid special attention to the intention of connecting coursework more directly to practice in pre-service teacher education. The overall objective of the study was to strengthen the relationship between theory...... that the three parties (college teachers, practice teachers and teacher students) found it difficult to perform and maintain their different roles....

  18. Teacher competencies

    OpenAIRE

    Svatošová, Kateřina

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis deals with adult teacher competencies. It describes current situation in adult education and it focuses on measuring quality level of teacher competencies. There is given the main overview of adult education specifics. These are the prerequisites for defining adult teacher competencies. There is given specific adult teacher competencies and related roles which are generally based on teacher's activities during educational courses. Next part describes present conception of ...

  19. Teacher Pay and Teacher Aptitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leigh, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Can changes in teacher pay encourage more able individuals to enter the teaching profession? So far, studies of the impact of pay on the aptitude distribution of teachers have provided mixed evidence on the extent to which altering teacher salaries represents a feasible solution to the teacher quality problem. One possible reason is that these…

  20. Child-to-Teacher Ratio and Day-Care Teacher Sickness Absenteeism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Elvira; Gørtz, Mette

    2013-01-01

    -to-teacher ratio, i.e. the number of children per teacher in an institution, affects teacher sickness absenteeism. We control for individual teacher characteristics, workplace characteristics, and family background characteristics of the children in the day-care institutions. Our estimation results indicate...... that the child-to-teacher ratio is positively related to sickness absence for 2005-2006, but not for 2002-2004....

  1. Classroom Management. TESOL Classroom Practice Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Thomas S. C., Ed.

    2008-01-01

    This series captures the dynamics of the contemporary ESOL classroom. It showcases state-of-the-art curricula, materials, tasks, and activities reflecting emerging trends in language education and seeks to build localized language teaching and learning theories based on teachers' and students' unique experiences in and beyond the classroom. Each…

  2. The Elusive Neutrino, Understanding the Atom Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernstein, Jeremy

    This booklet is one of the booklets in the "Understanding the Atom Series" published by the U. S. Atomic Energy Commission for high school science teachers and their students. The discovery of the neutrino and the research involving this important elementary particle of matter is discussed. The introductory section reviews topics basic…

  3. The Mythmaker of Seneca. Report Series 2.13.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quick, Doris M.

    This portrait of a high school literature classroom is one of a series of several such portraits which depict diverse classroom settings of high school literature, and which result from the second year of a teacher-research project in the greater Albany, New York area. This article portrays teacher Mr. McCabe and his eighth grade class in their…

  4. Teacher Inequality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J. Wayne

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available When discussing the teacher quality gap, policy makers have tended to focus on teacher certification, degrees, and experience. These indicators have become key benchmarks for progress toward equality of educational opportunity, in part for lack of additional teacher quality indicators. This article turns attention to teachers' academic skills. National data on teachers' entrance examination scores and college selectivity reveal substantial disparities by school poverty level. The findings commend attention to the gap in academic skills in the formulation of future policy and research on the teacher quality gap.

  5. Estimating Utility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Simler, Kenneth R.

    2010-01-01

    A fundamental premise of absolute poverty lines is that they represent the same level of utility through time and space. Disturbingly, a series of recent studies in middle- and low-income economies show that even carefully derived poverty lines rarely satisfy this premise. This article proposes a......, with the current approach tending to systematically overestimate (underestimate) poverty in urban (rural) zones.......A fundamental premise of absolute poverty lines is that they represent the same level of utility through time and space. Disturbingly, a series of recent studies in middle- and low-income economies show that even carefully derived poverty lines rarely satisfy this premise. This article proposes...... an information-theoretic approach to estimating cost-of-basic-needs (CBN) poverty lines that are utility consistent. Applications to date illustrate that utility-consistent poverty measurements derived from the proposed approach and those derived from current CBN best practices often differ substantially...

  6. FOURIER SERIES MODELS THROUGH TRANSFORMATION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DEPT

    monthly temperature data (1996 – 2005) collected from the National Root ... KEY WORDS: Fourier series, square transformation, multiplicative model, ... fluctuations or movements are often periodic(Ekpeyong,2005). .... significant trend or not, if the trend is not significant, the grand mean may be used as an estimate of trend.

  7. Integer-valued time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Akker, R.

    2007-01-01

    This thesis adresses statistical problems in econometrics. The first part contributes statistical methodology for nonnegative integer-valued time series. The second part of this thesis discusses semiparametric estimation in copula models and develops semiparametric lower bounds for a large class of

  8. Clustering of financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Urso, Pierpaolo; Cappelli, Carmela; Di Lallo, Dario; Massari, Riccardo

    2013-05-01

    This paper addresses the topic of classifying financial time series in a fuzzy framework proposing two fuzzy clustering models both based on GARCH models. In general clustering of financial time series, due to their peculiar features, needs the definition of suitable distance measures. At this aim, the first fuzzy clustering model exploits the autoregressive representation of GARCH models and employs, in the framework of a partitioning around medoids algorithm, the classical autoregressive metric. The second fuzzy clustering model, also based on partitioning around medoids algorithm, uses the Caiado distance, a Mahalanobis-like distance, based on estimated GARCH parameters and covariances that takes into account the information about the volatility structure of time series. In order to illustrate the merits of the proposed fuzzy approaches an application to the problem of classifying 29 time series of Euro exchange rates against international currencies is presented and discussed, also comparing the fuzzy models with their crisp version.

  9. Teacher's evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Šuranská, Ivana

    2014-01-01

    This bachelor theses focuses on the research of the teacher's attitudes towards several issues such as introducing professional standards, new carreer structure of teacher's and it's supporting systems. It has been created on the bases of theoretical resources and the research among teachers of kindergartens, elementary schools and high schools in Moravskoslezský and Středočeský region. The theoretical part provides a summary of the current state of teacher evaluation, proffesional standards,...

  10. Los padres como consejeros o coparticipes en la toma de decisiones. Serie E: El logro de la participacion de los padres, cuaderno III. Edicion para el estudiante. Cuadernos para el entrenamiento de maestros de educacion bilingue. (Parents as Advisors or Participants in Decision Making. Series E: Success with Parent Participation, Book III. Student Edition. Bilingual Education Teacher Training Packet).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Rodolfo, Comp.

    The student version of a learning module for teacher training in bilingual education is one of three focusing on promoting parent participation in the school system, and concentrates specifically on the role of parents as counselors and co-participants in decisionmaking. An introductory section discussing the overall objectives of the materials is…

  11. [Teacher Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmatier, Robert A., Ed.

    1977-01-01

    This issue collects three articles concerning reading-teacher training. "Language, Failure, and Panda Bears" by Patricia M. Cunningham calls attention to dialect difficulties in the classroom and provides ideas for teacher training programs and for public schools to solve this problem. William H. Rupley, in "Improving Teacher Effectiveness in…

  12. Teacher Cooperatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Beth

    2009-01-01

    Twenty years ago, when the late Albert Shanker, then president of the American Federation of Teachers, endorsed the notion of innovative schools operating outside conventional district bureaucracies, his aim was to put teachers at the helm. Fast-forward two decades from Shanker's then-radical proposition and there are nearly 80 teacher-governed…

  13. A Comparison of Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood and Asymptotically Distribution-Free Dynamic Factor Analysis Parameter Estimation in Fitting Covariance-Structure Models to Block-Toeplitz Representing Single-Subject Multivariate Time-Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molenaar, P.C.M.; Nesselroade, J.R.

    1998-01-01

    The study of intraindividual variability pervades empirical inquiry in virtually all subdisciplines of psychology. The statistical analysis of multivariate time-series data - a central product of intraindividual investigations - requires special modeling techniques. The dynamic factor model (DFM),

  14. Linking Teacher Quality, Student Attendance, and Student Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershenson, Seth

    2016-01-01

    Research on the effectiveness of educational inputs, particularly research on teacher effectiveness, typically overlooks teachers' potential impact on behavioral outcomes, such as student attendance. Using longitudinal data on teachers and students in North Carolina I estimate teacher effects on primary school student absences in a value-added…

  15. Bureaucracy and Teachers' Sense of Power

    OpenAIRE

    YuÌ cel, Cemil

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the utility of Hall's (1961) conceptualization of Max Weber's (1946) theory of bureaucracy as an analytical tool in Turkey. The population was 1946 teachers in 91 public schools that employ five or more teachers. The instruments were distributed to 725 teachers in 68 schools in Karabuk province. Useable returns were 486. A pilot sample (one third of the useable returns) was generated to test the instruments by utilizing a series of item analyses. Remai...

  16. How Technology Teachers Understand Technological Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norström, Per

    2014-01-01

    Swedish technology teachers' views of technological knowledge are examined through a written survey and a series of interviews. The study indicates that technology teachers' understandings of what constitutes technological knowledge and how it is justified vary considerably. The philosophical discussions on the topic are unknown to them. This lack…

  17. Melinda: De Facto Primary School Music Teacher

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Peter

    2013-01-01

    A series of reviews dating back to the 1960s and a body of research literature points to the inadequate delivery of music education by generalist primary school teachers in Australian schools. Despite recommendations for specialist music teachers to teach music in all Australian primary schools to counter this ongoing trend, such an approach has…

  18. Sampling and estimating recreational use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timothy G. Gregoire; Gregory J. Buhyoff

    1999-01-01

    Probability sampling methods applicable to estimate recreational use are presented. Both single- and multiple-access recreation sites are considered. One- and two-stage sampling methods are presented. Estimation of recreational use is presented in a series of examples.

  19. Planning Together: Positive Classroom Environments. Diversity in the Classroom Series, Number Four.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindle, Doug

    This document, the fourth in a series on diversity in the classroom, supports the belief that challenges faced by teachers working with diverse students can only be met through teacher practices that increase levels of positive teacher-student interaction and that create, in each student, effective social and problem solving skills. Section 1,…

  20. Arts in the Classroom: What One Elementary Teacher Can Do.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambler, Nancy Morison; Strong, Barbara R.

    This monograph, one in a series, describes ways in which elementary teachers have brought arts to the classroom. Descriptions of what teachers are doing are organized by themes. The first theme is the use of the arts in basic skill development. One teacher in Casper, Wyoming, produces rebus books for her students. These books offer a means of…

  1. Does Teacher Preparation Matter? Evidence about Teacher Certification, Teach for America, and Teacher Effectiveness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Darling-Hammond

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent debates about the utility of teacher education have raised questions about whether certified teachers are, in general, more effective than those who have not met the testing and training requirements for certification, and whether some candidates with strong liberal arts backgrounds might be at least as effective as teacher education graduates. This study examines these questions with a large student-level data set from Houston, Texas that links student characteristics and achievement with data about their teachers' certification status, experience, and degree levels from 1995-2002. The data set also allows an examination of whether Teach for America (TFA candidates-recruits from selective universities who receive a few weeks of training before they begin teaching-are as effective as similarly experienced certified teachers. In a series of regression analyses looking at 4th and 5th grade student achievement gains on six different reading and mathematics tests over a six-year period, we find that certified teachers consistently produce stronger student achievement gains than do uncertified teachers. These findings hold for TFA recruits as well as others. Controlling for teacher experience, degrees, and student characteristics, uncertified TFA recruits are less effective than certified teachers, and perform about as well as other uncertified teachers. TFA recruits who become certified after 2 or 3 years do about as well as other certified teachers in supporting student achievement gains; however, nearly all of them leave within three years. Teachers' effectiveness appears strongly related to the preparation they have received for teaching.

  2. Summation of series

    CERN Document Server

    Jolley, LB W

    2004-01-01

    Over 1,100 common series, all grouped for easy reference. Arranged by category, these series include arithmetical and geometrical progressions, powers and products of natural numbers, figurate and polygonal numbers, inverse natural numbers, exponential and logarithmic series, binomials, simple inverse products, factorials, trigonometrical and hyperbolic expansions, and additional series. 1961 edition.

  3. Teacher community in elementary charter schools.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marisa Cannata

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available The organizational context of charter schools may facilitate the formation of a strong teacher community. In particular, a focused school mission and increased control over teacher hiring may lead to stronger teacher professional communities. This paper uses the 1999-2000 Schools and Staffing Survey to compare the level of teacher community in charter public and traditional public schools. It also estimates the effect of various charter policy variables and domains of school autonomy on teacher community. Charter school teachers report higher levels of teacher community than traditional public school teachers do, although this effect is less than one-tenth of a standard deviation and is dwarfed by the effect of a supportive principal, teacher decision-making influence, and school size. Charter public schools authorized by universities showed lower levels of teacher community than those authorized by local school districts. Teachers in charter schools that have flexibility over tenure requirements and the school budget report higher levels of teacher community. This study reveals that charter schools do facilitate the formation of strong teacher communities, although the effect is small. The analysis also suggests that the institutional origin of the charter school and specific areas of policy flexibility may influence teacher community.

  4. Robot Teachers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgård, Rikke Toft; Ess, Charles Melvin; Bhroin, Niamh Ni

    The world's first robot teacher, Saya, was introduced to a classroom in Japan in 2009. Saya, had the appearance of a young female teacher. She could express six basic emotions, take the register and shout orders like 'be quiet' (The Guardian, 2009). Since 2009, humanoid robot technologies have...... developed. It is now suggested that robot teachers may become regular features in educational settings, and may even 'take over' from human teachers in ten to fifteen years (cf. Amundsen, 2017 online; Gohd, 2017 online). Designed to look and act like a particular kind of human; robot teachers mediate human...... existence and roles, while also aiming to support education through sophisticated, automated, human-like interaction. Our paper explores the design and existential implications of ARTIE, a robot teacher at Oxford Brookes University (2017, online). Drawing on an initial empirical exploration we propose...

  5. Estimation of the impacts of different homogenization approaches on the variability of temperature series in Catalonia (North Eastern-Spain), Andorra and South Eastern - France. An experiment under the umbrella of the HOME-COST action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, E.; Prohom, M.; Mestre, O.; Esteban, P.; Kuglitsch, F. G.; Gruber, C.; Herrero, M.

    2008-12-01

    The almost unanimously accepted fact of climate change has brought many scientists to investigate the seasonal and interannual variability and change in instrumental climatic records. Unfortunately, these records are nearly always affected by homogeneity problems caused by changes in the station or its environment. The European Cooperation in the Field of Scientific and Technical Research (COST) is sponsoring the action COST-ES0601: Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated approach (HOME), which aims amongst others to investigate the impacts of different homogenisation ap-proaches on the observed data series. In this work, we apply different detection/correction methods (SNHT, RhTest, Caussinus-Mestre, Vincent Interpolation Method, HOM Method) to annual, sea-sonal, monthly and daily data of a multi-country quality controlled dataset (17 stations in Catalonia (NE Spain); 3 stations in Andorra and 11 stations in SE France). The different outputs are analysed and the differences in the final se-ries studied. After this experiment, we can state that - although all the applied methods im-prove the homogeneity of the original series - the conclusions extracted from the analysis of the homogenised annual, seasonal, monthly data and extreme indices derived from daily data demonstrate important differences. As an exam-ple, some methods (SNHT) tend to detect fewer breakpoints than others (Caussinus-Mestre). Even if metadata or a pre-identified list of breakpoints is available, the correction factors calculated by the different approaches differ both in annual, seasonal, monthly and daily scales. In the latter case, some methods like HOM - based on the modelling of a candidate series against a reference series - present a richest solution than others based on the mere in-terpolation of monthly factors (Vincent Method), although the former are not al-ways applicable due to lack of good reference stations. In order to identify the best performing

  6. Stephen Hawking's Universe. Teacher's Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Malcolm H.; Rameau, Jonathan D.

    This program guide is meant to help teachers assist their students in viewing the six-part public television series, "Stephen Hawking's Universe." The guide features program summaries that give background information and brief synopses of the programs; previewing activities that familiarize students with the subject; vocabulary that…

  7. Teacher roles in Learning Games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magnussen, Rikke

    2007-01-01

    the roles as forensic experts who solve a series of murder cases. When teachers use this type of games, they have to adapt to new teaching situations and roles. This includes the fictional role in a game, but also the role as a supervisor for a group of students that play the role as professional experts. I...

  8. Teachers' Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuch, Klaus; Haufe, Eva; Seibt, Reingard

    2015-05-15

    Almost 800,000 teachers were working in Germany in the 2012-13 school year. A determination of the most common medical problems in this large occupational group serves as the basis for measures that help maintain teachers' health and their ability to work in their profession. We present our own research findings, a selective review of the literature, and data derived from the German statutory health insurance scheme concerning medical disability, long-term illness, and inability to work among teachers. Compared to the general population, teachers have a more healthful lifestyle and a lower frequency of cardiovascular risk factors (except hypertension). Like non-teachers, they commonly suffer from musculoskeletal and cardiovascular diseases. Mental and psychosomatic diseases are more common in teachers than in non-teachers, as are nonspecific complaints such as exhaustion, fatigue, headache, and tension. It is commonly said that 3-5% of teachers suffer from "burnout," but reliable data on this topic are lacking, among other reasons because the term has no standard definition. The percentage of teachers on sick leave is generally lower than the overall percentage among statutory insurees; it is higher in the former East Germany than in the former West Germany. The number of teachers taking early retirement because of illness has steadily declined from over 60% in 2001 and currently stands at 19%, with an average age of 58 years, among tenured teachers taking early retirement. The main reasons for early retirement are mental and psychosomatic illnesses, which together account for 32-50% of cases. Although German law mandates the medical care of persons in the teaching professions by occupational physicians, this requirement is implemented to varying extents in the different German federal states. Teachers need qualified, interdisciplinary occupational health care with the involvement of their treating physicians.

  9. Understanding Geometric Ideas: Pre-Service Primary Teachers' Knowledge as a Basis for Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seah, Rebecca

    2015-01-01

    This paper reports part of an ongoing investigation into aspects of pre-service teachers' geometric knowledge. One hundred and fifty-two Australian pre-service teachers responded to a series of questions that reflect the type of knowledge teachers are expected to know and teach. Analysis of their responses shows that teacher knowledge can be…

  10. Capturing Structure Implicitly from Time-Series having Limited Data

    OpenAIRE

    Emaasit, Daniel; Johnson, Matthew

    2018-01-01

    Scientific fields such as insider-threat detection and highway-safety planning often lack sufficient amounts of time-series data to estimate statistical models for the purpose of scientific discovery. Moreover, the available limited data are quite noisy. This presents a major challenge when estimating time-series models that are robust to overfitting and have well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Most of the current literature in these fields involve visualizing the time-series for noticeabl...

  11. Stochastic models for time series

    CERN Document Server

    Doukhan, Paul

    2018-01-01

    This book presents essential tools for modelling non-linear time series. The first part of the book describes the main standard tools of probability and statistics that directly apply to the time series context to obtain a wide range of modelling possibilities. Functional estimation and bootstrap are discussed, and stationarity is reviewed. The second part describes a number of tools from Gaussian chaos and proposes a tour of linear time series models. It goes on to address nonlinearity from polynomial or chaotic models for which explicit expansions are available, then turns to Markov and non-Markov linear models and discusses Bernoulli shifts time series models. Finally, the volume focuses on the limit theory, starting with the ergodic theorem, which is seen as the first step for statistics of time series. It defines the distributional range to obtain generic tools for limit theory under long or short-range dependences (LRD/SRD) and explains examples of LRD behaviours. More general techniques (central limit ...

  12. Supporting French Teachers for a Paradigm Shift in Grammar Education: A Teacher Trainer's Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibeault, Joël

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a series of pedagogical workshops that was offered over two years to a cohort of 50 teachers practising in Ontarian French schools. Focusing on grammar teaching, the workshops' objectives were to: (a) contribute to the teachers' development of linguistic knowledge consistent with the grammar under new provincial standards and…

  13. Human futures amongst robot teachers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgård, Rikke Toft; Bhroin, Niamh Ni; Ess, Charles Melvin

    2017-01-01

    In 2009 the world’s first robot teacher, Saya, was introduced into a classroom. Saya could express six basic emotions and shout orders like 'be quiet'. Since 2009, instructional robot technologies have emerged around the world and it is estimated that robot teachers may become a regular...... technological feature in the classroom and even 'take over' from human teachers within the next ten to fifteen years.   The paper set out to examine some of the possible ethical implications for human futures in relation to the immanent rise of robot teachers. This is done through combining perspectives...... on technology coming from design, science and technology, education, and philosophy (McCarthy & Wright, 2004; Jasanoff, 2016; Selwyn 2016; Verbeek, 2011). The framework calls attention to how particular robot teachers institute certain educational, experiential and existential terrains within which human...

  14. The Photoplethismographic Signal Processed with Nonlinear Time Series Analysis Tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez Caceres, Jose Luis; Hong, Rolando; Garcia Lanz, Abel; Garcia Dominguez, Luis; Cabannas, Karelia

    2001-01-01

    Finger photoplethismography (PPG) signals were submitted to nonlinear time series analysis. The applied analytical techniques were: (i) High degree polynomial fitting for baseline estimation; (ii) FFT analysis for estimating power spectra; (iii) fractal dimension estimation via the Higuchi's time-domain method, and (iv) kernel nonparametric estimation for reconstructing noise free-attractors and also for estimating signal's stochastic components

  15. Teacher Portfolios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe-Quintero, Kate; Brown, James Dean

    1998-01-01

    A portfolio of achievements, experiences, and reflections can help English-as-a-Second-Language teachers attain professional development goals and offer administrators greater insight for making informed hiring and job-performance decisions. This paper focuses on what teacher portfolios are, what their contents should be, and what their uses are…

  16. Teacher Burnout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    USA Today, 1985

    1985-01-01

    Teacher burnout is characterized by three factors: emotional exhaustion and fatigue; negative, cynical attitudes towards students; and the loss of feelings of accomplishment on the job. Important predictors of burnout include a lack of participation in decision-making, inappropriate job expectations, a lack of teacher autonomy, and role conflict.…

  17. Teacher agency:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robinson, Sarah; Priestley, Mark; Biesta, Gert

    2015-01-01

    The concept of teacher agency has emerged in recent literature as an alternative means of understanding how teachers might enact practice and engage with policy (e.g. Lasky, 2005; Leander & Osbourne, 2008; Ketelaar et al., 2012; Priestley, Biesta & Robinson, 2013). But what is agency? Agency rema...

  18. Teachers Performing Professionalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terri Bourke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Faced with the perceived need to redefine education for more economic utilitarian purposes, as well as to encourage compliance with government policies, Australia, like many other Anglophone nations, has engaged in numerous policy shifts resulting in performativity practices becoming commonplace in the educational landscape. A series of interviews with teachers from Queensland, Australia, in which they revealed their experiences of professionalism are examined archaeologically to reveal how they enact their roles in response to this performative agenda. Findings suggest that while there is some acceptance among teachers of the performative discourse, there is increasing resistance, which permits the construction of alternative or counter-discourses to the currently internationally pervasive performative climate.

  19. Geometric Series via Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesman, Barry

    2012-01-01

    Infinite series is a challenging topic in the undergraduate mathematics curriculum for many students. In fact, there is a vast literature in mathematics education research on convergence issues. One of the most important types of infinite series is the geometric series. Their beauty lies in the fact that they can be evaluated explicitly and that…

  20. On the series

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2016-08-26

    Aug 26, 2016 ... http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/pmsc/115/04/0371-0381. Keywords. Inverse binomial series; hypergeometric series; polylogarithms; integral representations. Abstract. In this paper we investigate the series ∑ k = 1 ∞ ( 3 k k ) − 1 k − n x k . Obtaining some integral representations of them, we evaluated the ...

  1. Analysis of Heavy-Tailed Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xie, Xiaolei

    This thesis is about analysis of heavy-tailed time series. We discuss tail properties of real-world equity return series and investigate the possibility that a single tail index is shared by all return series of actively traded equities in a market. Conditions for this hypothesis to be true...... are identified. We study the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of sample covariance and sample auto-covariance matrices of multivariate heavy-tailed time series, and particularly for time series with very high dimensions. Asymptotic approximations of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of such matrices are found...... and expressed in terms of the parameters of the dependence structure, among others. Furthermore, we study an importance sampling method for estimating rare-event probabilities of multivariate heavy-tailed time series generated by matrix recursion. We show that the proposed algorithm is efficient in the sense...

  2. Visibility graph approach to exchange rate series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yue; Wang, Jianbo; Yang, Huijie; Mang, Jingshi

    2009-10-01

    By means of a visibility graph, we investigate six important exchange rate series. It is found that the series convert into scale-free and hierarchically structured networks. The relationship between the scaling exponents of the degree distributions and the Hurst exponents obeys the analytical prediction for fractal Brownian motions. The visibility graph can be used to obtain reliable values of Hurst exponents of the series. The characteristics are explained by using the multifractal structures of the series. The exchange rate of EURO to Japanese Yen is widely used to evaluate risk and to estimate trends in speculative investments. Interestingly, the hierarchies of the visibility graphs for the exchange rate series of these two currencies are significantly weak compared with that of the other series.

  3. Automatic trend estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Vamos¸, C˘alin

    2013-01-01

    Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.

  4. Finnish Cooperating Physics Teachers' Conceptions of Physics Teachers' Teacher Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asikainen, Mervi A.; Hirvonen, Pekka E.

    2010-01-01

    This article examines Finnish cooperating physics teachers' conceptions of teacher knowledge in physics. Six experienced teachers were interviewed. The data was analyzed to form categories concerning the basis of teacher knowledge, and the tradition of German Didaktik and Shulman's theory of teacher knowledge were used in order to understand the…

  5. Computer Assisted Instruction in Teacher Education: A Full Length Course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, G. Phillip

    Pennsylvania State University has developed, evaluated, and implemented a series of modules and an entire three-credit teacher education course which is offered completely by microcomputer. The course is entitled "Educating Special Learners." The modules use the Apple II series and the IBM PC series. Evaluation of the course, based on…

  6. Restructuring Teachers' Work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Kirtman

    2002-05-01

    the classroom organized to support and sustain classroom changes. Two of the three schools introduced changes in staff organization (teacher teams and leadership (governance committees, but under-estimated the professional development and other supports that would in turn support changes in classroom practice. Altogether, it appears unlikely that the observed changes in professional roles were sufficiently well established and connected to affect core educational practice in the long run.

  7. The linguistically aware teacher and the teacher-aware linguist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCartney, Elspeth; Ellis, Sue

    2013-07-01

    This review evaluates issues of teacher linguistic knowledge relating to their work with children with speech, language and communication difficulties (SLCD). Information is from Ellis and McCartney [(2011a). Applied linguistics and primary school teaching. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press], a state-of-the-art text deriving from a British Association of Applied Linguistics/Cambridge University Press expert seminar series that details: linguistic research underpinning primary school curricula and pedagogy; the form of linguistic knowledge useful for teachers supporting children with SLCD in partnership with speech and language therapists; and how and when teachers acquire and learn to apply such knowledge. Critical analysis of the options presented for teacher learning indicate that policy enjoinders now include linguistic application as an expected part of teachers' professional knowledge, for all children including those with SLCD, but there is a large unmet learning need. It is concluded that there is a role for clinical linguists to disseminate useable knowledge to teachers in an accessible format. Ways of achieving this are considered.

  8. Modeling of Volatility with Non-linear Time Series Model

    OpenAIRE

    Kim Song Yon; Kim Mun Chol

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH (Asymmetric Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) error term and its parameter estimation is studied.

  9. Effective Teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beverly A. King Miller

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on the educational strategies that can be used to support female students of African descent in their persistence in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM education and careers. STEM careers have historically been White male and White female dominated, which has yielded an underrepresentation of those of African descent. Drawing from a grounded qualitative case study, the data used for this article share the responses of Afro-Caribbean females in STEM who have immigrated to the United States from the country of Panama. As Latinas, they are representative of the changing face in the American educational system—bilingual, multicultural, and of African descent. The strategies offered reflect their own teaching practices, their former teachers, or experiences with their children’s teachers. What emerged were descriptions of four strategies and behaviors of effective teachers that align with Ladson-Billings’s culturally relevant pedagogy and Gay’s culturally responsive teaching. Included in the findings are the high standards and expectations embodied by effective teachers that serve to positively inspire their students. Culturally responsive teachers create an atmosphere of learning that supports academic success, conveying their belief in their students’ ability based upon their own reflectivity. As the U.S. educational system continues to become multilingual and multicultural, there is need for strategies for the successful inclusion and progression of students in STEM educational pathways and careers. This will occur as teachers challenge themselves to be the agents of change in the lives of their students.

  10. Aplicación de la metodología de series de tiempo en la estimación de los niveles de exportaciones de café de Colombia periodo 1958-2011 - Application of time series methodology the estimation of the levels of exports of Colombia’s coffee period 1958 - 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josefa Ramoni Perazzi

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental element for the coffee Colombian sector, is to know to short, medium and long term, the behavior of the exports of soft coffee of Colombia, to know his relation in the processes of sales and production. In conformity with the previous thing, the present work was elaborated realizing an evaluation of the levels of exports of coffee, in monthly form from beginnings of 1958 until ends of 2008. With the aim to develop a model who allows to characterize and to obtain forecasts on the behavior of the exports of coffee realized in the country, the methodology used Box Jenkins, following the phases for the models ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated of Mobile Average.The information was taken of the web page of the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia. In the series under study a seasonal behavior was observed, where the first quarters present the minor levels of the year, particularly in February,month that registers the lowest levels of exports of the year, these levels quarterly go increasing of gradual form up to reaching the major level of exports in the quarter IV, specifically between November and December. Finally the forecasts were obtained between the year 2009 and 2011, following a stable behavior with regard to the period of validation of the sample of the series. The information was analyzed using the language R.

  11. Series Transmission Line Transformer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckles, Robert A.; Booth, Rex; Yen, Boris T.

    2004-06-29

    A series transmission line transformer is set forth which includes two or more of impedance matched sets of at least two transmissions lines such as shielded cables, connected in parallel at one end ans series at the other in a cascading fashion. The cables are wound about a magnetic core. The series transmission line transformer (STLT) which can provide for higher impedance ratios and bandwidths, which is scalable, and which is of simpler design and construction.

  12. Series expansions without diagrams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhanot, G.; Creutz, M.; Horvath, I.; Lacki, J.; Weckel, J.

    1994-01-01

    We discuss the use of recursive enumeration schemes to obtain low- and high-temperature series expansions for discrete statistical systems. Using linear combinations of generalized helical lattices, the method is competitive with diagrammatic approaches and is easily generalizable. We illustrate the approach using Ising and Potts models. We present low-temperature series results in up to five dimensions and high-temperature series in three dimensions. The method is general and can be applied to any discrete model

  13. How Teacher Turnover Harms Student Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronfeldt, Matthew; Loeb, Susanna; Wyckoff, James

    2013-01-01

    Researchers and policymakers often assume that teacher turnover harms student achievement, though recent studies suggest this may not be the case. Using a unique identification strategy that employs school-by-grade level turnover and two classes of fixed-effects models, this study estimates the effects of teacher turnover on over 850,000 New York…

  14. Performance assessment of fire-sat monitoring system based on satellite time series for fire danger estimation : the experience of the pre-operative application in the Basilicata Region (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanorte, Antonio; Desantis, Fortunato; Aromando, Angelo; Lasaponara, Rosa

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents the results we obtained in the context of the FIRE-SAT project during the 2012 operative application of the satellite based tools for fire monitoring. FIRE_SAT project has been funded by the Civil Protection of the Basilicata Region in order to set up a low cost methodology for fire danger monitoring and fire effect estimation based on satellite Earth Observation techniques. To this aim, NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), ASTER, Landsat TM data were used. Novel data processing techniques have been developed by researchers of the ARGON Laboratory of the CNR-IMAA for the operative monitoring of fire. In this paper we only focus on the danger estimation model which has been fruitfully used since 2008 to 2012 as an reliable operative tool to support and optimize fire fighting strategies from the alert to the management of resources including fire attacks. The daily updating of fire danger is carried out using satellite MODIS images selected for their spectral capability and availability free of charge from NASA web site. This makes these data sets very suitable for an effective systematic (daily) and sustainable low-cost monitoring of large areas. The preoperative use of the integrated model, pointed out that the system properly monitor spatial and temporal variations of fire susceptibility and provide useful information of both fire severity and post fire regeneration capability.

  15. Fourier Series Optimization Opportunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian

    2008-01-01

    This note discusses the introduction of Fourier series as an immediate application of optimization of a function of more than one variable. Specifically, it is shown how the study of Fourier series can be motivated to enrich a multivariable calculus class. This is done through discovery learning and use of technology wherein students build the…

  16. Visualizing the Geometric Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Albert B., Jr.

    1989-01-01

    Mathematical proofs often leave students unconvinced or without understanding of what has been proved, because they provide no visual-geometric representation. Presented are geometric models for the finite geometric series when r is a whole number, and the infinite geometric series when r is the reciprocal of a whole number. (MNS)

  17. Upper Gastrointestinal (GI) Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... standard barium upper GI series, which uses only barium a double-contrast upper GI series, which uses both air and ... evenly coat your upper GI tract with the barium. If you are having a double-contrast study, you will swallow gas-forming crystals that ...

  18. SERI Wind Energy Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noun, R. J.

    1983-06-01

    The SERI Wind Energy Program manages the areas or innovative research, wind systems analysis, and environmental compatibility for the U.S. Department of Energy. Since 1978, SERI wind program staff have conducted in-house aerodynamic and engineering analyses of novel concepts for wind energy conversion and have managed over 20 subcontracts to determine technical feasibility; the most promising of these concepts is the passive blade cyclic pitch control project. In the area of systems analysis, the SERI program has analyzed the impact of intermittent generation on the reliability of electric utility systems using standard utility planning models. SERI has also conducted methodology assessments. Environmental issues related to television interference and acoustic noise from large wind turbines have been addressed. SERI has identified the causes, effects, and potential control of acoustic noise emissions from large wind turbines.

  19. U-series vs 14C ages of deep-sea corals from the southern Labrador Sea: Sporadic development of corals and geochemical processes hampering estimation of ambient water ventilation ages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillaire-Marcel, Claude; Maccali, Jenny; Ménabréaz, Lucie; Ghaleb, Bassam; Blénet, Aurélien; Edinger, Evan

    2017-04-01

    Deep-sea scleractinian corals were collected with the remotely operated ROPOS vehicle off Newfounland. Fossil specimens of Desmophyllum dianthus were raised from coral graveyards at Orphan Knoll (˜1700m depth) and Flemish cap (˜2200 m depth), while live specimens were collected directly in overlying steep rock slopes. D. dianthus has an aragonitic skeleton and is thus particularly suited for U-Th dating. We obtained > 70 U-series ages along with > 20 14C measurements. Results display a discrete age distribution with two age clusters: a Bølling-Allerød and Holocene cluster with > 20 samples, and a Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5c cluster with ˜50 samples. Only two samples lay outside these clusters, at ˜ 64 ka and at ˜181 ka. Contrary to the New England seamounts where coral presence seems to have been continue through the last 70 ka, Orphan Knoll and Flemish Cap graveyards are marked by the absence of preserved specimens from MIS 2 to MIS 4 and throughout MIS 6. For filter-feeding deep-sea corals, access to food-rich waters is essential. Hence the Holocene and MIS 5 clusters observed in the Labrador basin might represent intervals linked to high food availability, either through production in the overlying water column, more effectively in relation to particulate and dissolved organic carbon transport via an active Western Boundary Undercurrent. Comparison of 230Th-ages vs 14C-ages in order to document changes in ventilation ages of the ambient water masses is equivocal due to the presence of some diagenetic and/or initial 230Th-excess. In addition, discrete diagenetic U-fluxes can be documented from 234U/238U vs 230Th/238U data. They point to a recent winnowing of sediment overlying the fossil corals that we link to the Holocene intensification of the Western Boundary Undercurrent, which resulted in driving Fe-Mn coatings.

  20. TEACHER NEEDED

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    Part-time teacher of primary English needed from 1st December 2002 to teach English National Curriculum (KS2) and NLS to mother tongue or good second language English-speakers aged 7-10. 4 hours contact time per week, team planning, marking and meetings. Candidates should be English mother tongue qualified teachers, confident, flexible classroom practitioners and team players. For further details and how to apply: engnat@hotmail.com or 04 50 40 82 66. Apply as soon as possible, and in any case before November 20th. English National Programme - Lycée International, Ferney-Voltaire

  1. Adult teachers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Lea Lund

    2011-01-01

    In this paper I examine the research into the process of adult teachers’ practice-based learning as a part of an on-going project titled “Competence development through practice-based learning – a study of adult teacher’s learning processes”. The project relies on the notion of the adult teacher...... as a 'reflective practitioner’, who develops 'the language of practice’, through experience and learns when she is exposed to 'disjuncture’. Research done on continuing professional development and the inquiries done in the field of teacher thinking and within this the research on novices becoming expert...

  2. Mongolian Teachers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Ulla Ambrosius

    2002-01-01

    The article comprises the result of a research project conducted among Mongolian teachers in a period of transition. The study is based on quantitative as well as on qualitative data. The study is carried out as part of research activities in an educational development programme.......The article comprises the result of a research project conducted among Mongolian teachers in a period of transition. The study is based on quantitative as well as on qualitative data. The study is carried out as part of research activities in an educational development programme....

  3. Divergent Perturbation Series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suslov, I.M.

    2005-01-01

    Various perturbation series are factorially divergent. The behavior of their high-order terms can be determined by Lipatov's method, which involves the use of instanton configurations of appropriate functional integrals. When the Lipatov asymptotic form is known and several lowest order terms of the perturbation series are found by direct calculation of diagrams, one can gain insight into the behavior of the remaining terms of the series, which can be resummed to solve various strong-coupling problems in a certain approximation. This approach is demonstrated by determining the Gell-Mann-Low functions in φ 4 theory, QED, and QCD with arbitrary coupling constants. An overview of the mathematical theory of divergent series is presented, and interpretation of perturbation series is discussed. Explicit derivations of the Lipatov asymptotic form are presented for some basic problems in theoretical physics. A solution is proposed to the problem of renormalon contributions, which hampered progress in this field in the late 1970s. Practical perturbation-series summation schemes are described both for a coupling constant of order unity and in the strong-coupling limit. An interpretation of the Borel integral is given for 'non-Borel-summable' series. Higher order corrections to the Lipatov asymptotic form are discussed

  4. Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modeling extreme hydrologic events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rasmussen, Peter F.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    Two different models for analyzing extreme hydrologic events, based on, respectively, partial duration series (PDS) and annual maximum series (AMS), are compared. The PDS model assumes a generalized Pareto distribution for modeling threshold exceedances corresponding to a generalized extreme value......). In the case of ML estimation, the PDS model provides the most efficient T-year event estimator. In the cases of MOM and PWM estimation, the PDS model is generally preferable for negative shape parameters, whereas the AMS model yields the most efficient estimator for positive shape parameters. A comparison...... of the considered methods reveals that in general, one should use the PDS model with MOM estimation for negative shape parameters, the PDS model with exponentially distributed exceedances if the shape parameter is close to zero, the AMS model with MOM estimation for moderately positive shape parameters, and the PDS...

  5. Intercultural Education Series. An Introduction to Selected Latin American Cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubert, Frank W. R.; And Others

    This is the first publication in a series developed by the Programa de Educacion Interamericana designed to enrich and strengthen the knowledge and understanding of Texas teachers and students in the field of intercultural education, with particular reference to Mexico and the republics of Central and South America. The project hopes to produce a…

  6. The Mystery of Matter, World of the Atom Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, William G.

    This booklet is one in the "World of the Atome Series" for junior high school students and their teachers. It describes the fascinating story of the search for the key to the structure of matter. These topics are reviewed: the chemical atom of the 19th century, the planetary atom, the wave atom, inside the elementary particles, and the mystery of…

  7. A Time Series Forecasting Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Zhao-Yu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel time series forecasting method based on a weighted self-constructing clustering technique. The weighted self-constructing clustering processes all the data patterns incrementally. If a data pattern is not similar enough to an existing cluster, it forms a new cluster of its own. However, if a data pattern is similar enough to an existing cluster, it is removed from the cluster it currently belongs to and added to the most similar cluster. During the clustering process, weights are learned for each cluster. Given a series of time-stamped data up to time t, we divide it into a set of training patterns. By using the weighted self-constructing clustering, the training patterns are grouped into a set of clusters. To estimate the value at time t + 1, we find the k nearest neighbors of the input pattern and use these k neighbors to decide the estimation. Experimental results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  8. Into Adolescence: Fitness, Health and Hygiene. A Curriculum for Grades 5-8. Contemporary Health Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzino, Mary S.

    The Contemporary Health Series is intended to help teachers address critical health issues in their classrooms. It is designed to provide educators with the curricular tools necessary to challenge students to take personal responsibility for their health. This learning module, directed at middle school teachers, focuses on several health and…

  9. Assessing teachers' positive psychological functioning at work: Development and validation of the Teacher Subjective Wellbeing Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renshaw, Tyler L; Long, Anna C J; Cook, Clayton R

    2015-06-01

    This study reports on the initial development and validation of the Teacher Subjective Wellbeing Questionnaire (TSWQ) with 2 samples of educators-a general sample of 185 elementary and middle school teachers, and a target sample of 21 elementary school teachers experiencing classroom management challenges. The TSWQ is an 8-item self-report instrument for assessing teachers' subjective wellbeing, which is operationalized via subscales measuring school connectedness and teaching efficacy. The conceptualization and development processes underlying the TSWQ are described, and results from a series of preliminary psychometric and exploratory analyses are reported to establish initial construct validity. Findings indicated that the TSWQ was characterized by 2 conceptually sound latent factors, that both subscales and the composite scale demonstrated strong internal consistency, and that all scales demonstrated convergent validity with self-reported school supports and divergent validity with self-reported stress and emotional burnout. Furthermore, results indicated that TSWQ scores did not differ according to teachers' school level (i.e., elementary vs. middle), but that they did differ according to unique school environment (e.g., 1 middle school vs. another middle school) and teacher stressors (i.e., general teachers vs. teachers experiencing classroom management challenges). Results also indicated that, for teachers experiencing classroom challenges, the TSWQ had strong short-term predictive validity for psychological distress, accounting for approximately half of the variance in teacher stress and emotional burnout. Implications for theory, research, and the practice of school psychology are discussed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Multivariate Time Series Search

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Multivariate Time-Series (MTS) are ubiquitous, and are generated in areas as disparate as sensor recordings in aerospace systems, music and video streams, medical...

  11. Historical Climatology Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Historical Climatology Series (HCS) is a set of climate-related publications published by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center beginning in 1978. HCS is...

  12. Ciencias 2. Manual do Professor (Science Teacher's Manual).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raposo, Lucilia

    This is the teacher's manual for Ciencias 2, the second in a series of elementary science textbooks for Portuguese-speaking students. The student textbook contains 10 chapters and 57 activities. The teacher's manual presents an explanation of the educational goals and the organization of the content, Topics included are environment, the human,…

  13. Ciencias 1. Manual do Professor (Science 1. Teacher's Manual).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raposo, Lucilia

    This is the teacher's guide for Ciencias 1, the first in a series of science books designed for Portuguese-speaking students in elementary schools. The guide contains materials corresponding to the student's book. Included are five sections comprised of 43 lessons. The teacher's guide also contains lesson objectives, suggestions for lesson…

  14. Technology Acceptance among Pre-Service Teachers: Does Gender Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teo, Timothy; Fan, Xitao; Du, Jianxia

    2015-01-01

    This study examined possible gender differences in pre-service teachers' perceived acceptance of technology in their professional work under the framework of the technology acceptance model (TAM). Based on a sample of pre-service teachers, a series of progressively more stringent measurement invariance tests (configural, metric, and scalar…

  15. Science Teachers' Pedagogical Discontentment: Its Sources and Potential for Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southerland, Sherry A.; Sowell, Scott; Enderle, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    This research explored science teachers' pedagogical discontentment and described its role in teachers' consideration of new teaching practices. Pedagogical discontentment is an expression of the degree to which one is discontented because one's teaching practices do not achieve one's teaching goals. Through a series of structured interviews…

  16. Review of "Assessing the Compensation of Public-School Teachers"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keefe, Jeffrey H.

    2012-01-01

    This report compares the pay, pension costs and retiree health benefits of teachers with those of similarly qualified private-sector workers. The study concludes that teachers receive total compensation 52% greater than fair market levels, which translates into a $120 billion annual "overcharge" to taxpayers. Built on a series of faulty analyses,…

  17. SEL/Project Language. Level II, Kindergarten, Teacher's Handbook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valladares, Ann E.; Lynch, Helen C.

    The Teacher's Handbook is part of the publication series of the Southeastern Education Laboratory/Project Language (SEL/PL), an 8-year language-centered program designed to alleviate the language deficiencies of disadvantaged children between the ages of four and eleven. For teachers utilizing SEL/PL, the Handbook provides a research summary and…

  18. Teacher's Guide to SERAPHIM Software V. Chemistry: The Central Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, Donna J.

    Designed to assist chemistry teachers in selecting appropriate software programs, this publication is the fifth in a series of six teacher's guides from Project SERAPHIM, a program sponsored by the National Science Foundation. This guide is keyed to the chapters of the text "Chemistry: The Central Science." Program suggestions are…

  19. Remediation of Math Anxiety in Preservice Elementary School Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunkle, Susan M.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to measure the level of math anxiety in preservice elementary teachers, and then to determine if remediation methods would lower the measured level of anxiety in these same preservice teachers. The 10-day study provided an intense remediation using a time-series design to measure change on the Revised Math Anxiety…

  20. What Successful Science Teachers Do: 75 Research-Based Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasgow, Neal A.; Cheyne, Michele; Yerrick, Randy K.

    2010-01-01

    The experience and science expertise of these award-winning authors makes this easy-to-use guide a teacher's treasure trove. This latest edition to the popular What Successful Teachers Do series describes 75 research-based strategies and outlines best practices for inquiry-oriented science. Each strategy includes a brief description of the…

  1. How pupils percieve the teacher's motivational techniques?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bodroža Bojana

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Current research in the field of education indicates that the behaviour of the teacher affects significantly the quality and level of the pupil's motivation. The aim of our research was to determine the structure of the motivational style of teachers seen from the pupils' perspective, and to find out whether the pupils' perceptions of the teacher's motivational style depend upon cultural-educational influences of the family, and some characteristics of the students (academic achievements, gender. The sample included 856 pupils from 40 elementary schools in Serbia. We used the questionnaire with Likert's scale to obtain the evaluation of the teachers' behaviours. By the factor analysis we extracted three components of the teacher' behaviour: stimulating pupils' interest and competences, de-motivational teachers' behaviours and stimulating freedom of thinking and expression. The results show that the pupils whose parents have lower levels of education think that the behaviour of the teachers is directed to stimulating interest and competencies, as well as freedom of thinking and speech than the pupils of the parents of higher educational status. The control of the influence of the education of parents showed that the pupils of lower academic achievement perceive the teacher's behaviour as de-motivational. Compared to girls boys estimate more highly that teachers stimulate their interests and competencies. A suggestion is offered how a teacher should develop a behavioural style which would positively influence the quality of the pupils' motivation.

  2. Long time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisdal, H.; Holmqvist, E.; Hyvärinen, V.

    Awareness that emission of greenhouse gases will raise the global temperature and change the climate has led to studies trying to identify such changes in long-term climate and hydrologic time series. This report, written by the......Awareness that emission of greenhouse gases will raise the global temperature and change the climate has led to studies trying to identify such changes in long-term climate and hydrologic time series. This report, written by the...

  3. Multivariate Time Series Decomposition into Oscillation Components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuda, Takeru; Komaki, Fumiyasu

    2017-08-01

    Many time series are considered to be a superposition of several oscillation components. We have proposed a method for decomposing univariate time series into oscillation components and estimating their phases (Matsuda & Komaki, 2017 ). In this study, we extend that method to multivariate time series. We assume that several oscillators underlie the given multivariate time series and that each variable corresponds to a superposition of the projections of the oscillators. Thus, the oscillators superpose on each variable with amplitude and phase modulation. Based on this idea, we develop gaussian linear state-space models and use them to decompose the given multivariate time series. The model parameters are estimated from data using the empirical Bayes method, and the number of oscillators is determined using the Akaike information criterion. Therefore, the proposed method extracts underlying oscillators in a data-driven manner and enables investigation of phase dynamics in a given multivariate time series. Numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed method. From monthly mean north-south sunspot number data, the proposed method reveals an interesting phase relationship.

  4. TEACHER PERCEPTIONS OF SUPERVISOR-TEACHER INTERACTION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    AMIDON, EDMUND; BLUMBERG, ARTHUR

    TEACHER PERCEPTIONS OF SUPERVISOR-TEACHER INTERACTION WERE ANALYZED TO SUPPORT THE HYPOTHESIS THAT FOUR GROUPS, REPRESENTING DIFFERENT PERCEPTIONS OF SUPERVISORY BEHAVIOR, WOULD DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO TEACHER EVALUATIONS OF CONFERENCE PRODUCTIVITY, CONFERENCE LEARNING, AND THE COMMUNICATIVE ATMOSPHERE. THE 166 GRADUATE INSERVICE TEACHERS AT TEMPLE…

  5. Child-to-Teacher Ratio and Day Care Teacher Sickeness Absenteeism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gørtz, Mette; Andersson, Elvira

    2014-01-01

    time periods, 2002–2003 and 2005–2006, by using generalized method of moments with lagged levels of the child-to-teacher ratio as instrument. Our estimation results are somewhat mixed. Generally, the results indicate that the child-to-teacher ratio is positively related to short-term sickness absence...

  6. Using Technology for Geography Teacher Education: Web-Based Professional Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Cheryl A.; Boehm, Richard G.

    2012-01-01

    This qualitative study explores the perceived value of a video-based online workshop in Geography, "Watershed Management," part of the Geography: Teaching with the Stars series, a 22 program professional development series for teachers of geography, social studies, and environmental science. Results indicated that teachers reported…

  7. Estimating the cost of referral and willingness to pay for referral to higher-level health facilities: a case series study from an integrated community case management programme in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanyonjo, Agnes; Bagorogoza, Benson; Kasteng, Frida; Ayebale, Godfrey; Makumbi, Fredrick; Tomson, Göran; Källander, Karin

    2015-08-28

    Integrated community case management (iCCM) relies on community health workers (CHWs) managing children with malaria, pneumonia, diarrhoea, and referring children when management is not possible. This study sought to establish the cost per sick child referred to seek care from a higher-level health facility by a CHW and to estimate caregivers' willingness to pay (WTP) for referral. Caregivers of 203 randomly selected children referred to higher-level health facilities by CHWs were interviewed in four Midwestern Uganda districts. Questionnaires and document reviews were used to capture direct, indirect and opportunity costs incurred by caregivers, CHWs and health facilities managing referred children. WTP for referral was assessed through the 'bidding game' approach followed by an open-ended question on maximum WTP. Descriptive analysis was conducted for factors associated with referral completion and WTP using logistic and linear regression methods, respectively. The cost per case referred to higher-level health facilities was computed from a societal perspective. Reasons for referral included having fever with a negative malaria test (46.8%), danger signs (29.6%) and drug shortage (37.4%). Among the referred, less than half completed referral (45.8%). Referral completion was 2.8 times higher among children with danger signs (p = 0.004) relative to those without danger signs, and 0.27 times lower among children who received pre-referral treatment (p average cost per case referred was US$ 4.89 and US$7.35 per case completing referral. For each unit cost per case referred, caregiver out of pocket expenditure contributed 33.7%, caregivers' and CHWs' opportunity costs contributed 29.2% and 5.1% respectively and health facility costs contributed 39.6%. The mean (SD) out of pocket expenditure was US$1.65 (3.25). The mean WTP for referral was US$8.25 (14.70) and was positively associated with having received pre-referral treatment, completing referral and increasing

  8. Difficulties and challenges for newly qualified ELE (Spanish as a Foreign Language teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligia Ochoa Sierra

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The research presented here shows the results obtained from a series of interviews conducted with teachers who work as teachers of Spanish as a foreign language about the most important difficulties and challenges which such teachers face at the beginning of their career

  9. Great to Influential: Teacher Leaders' Roles in Supporting Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacques, Catherine; Weber, Gretchen; Bosso, David; Olson, Derek; Bassett, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    This report is the second in a series from a collaboration of nine leading organizations working to advance teaching and elevate the profession. For years, education leaders have sought to pinpoint how teachers become effective in order to better leverage teachers' impact on student learning and improve student outcomes. Teacher leadership is…

  10. Designs for the Evaluation of Teacher Training Materials. Report No. 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okey, James R.; Ciesla, Jerome L.

    This paper describes methods to assess the impact on students of a teacher using skills learned in a training program. Three designs for assessing the effects of teacher training materials are presented: time series design, equivalent time-samples design, and posttest-only control group design. Data obtained by classroom teachers while using the…

  11. Inferring interdependencies from short time series

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Complex networks provide an invaluable framework for the study of interlinked dynamical systems. In many cases, such networks are constructed from observed time series by first estimating the ...... does not quantify causal relations (unlike IOTA, or .... Africa_map_regions.svg, which is under public domain.

  12. Robust Control Charts for Time Series Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Croux, C.; Gelper, S.; Mahieu, K.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a control chart for time series data, based on the one-step- ahead forecast errors of the Holt-Winters forecasting method. We use robust techniques to prevent that outliers affect the estimation of the control limits of the chart. Moreover, robustness is important to maintain

  13. On Sums of Numerical Series and Fourier Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavao, H. Germano; de Oliveira, E. Capelas

    2008-01-01

    We discuss a class of trigonometric functions whose corresponding Fourier series, on a conveniently chosen interval, can be used to calculate several numerical series. Particular cases are presented and two recent results involving numerical series are recovered. (Contains 1 note.)

  14. Examining Teachers' Hurdles to `Science for All'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southerland, Sherry; Gallard, Alejandro; Callihan, Laurie

    2011-11-01

    The goal of this research is to identify science teachers' beliefs and conceptions that play an important role in shaping their understandings of and attempts to enact inclusive science teaching practices. We examined the work products, both informal (online discussions, email exchanges) and formal (papers, unit plans, peer reviews), of 14 teachers enrolled in a master's degree course focused on diversity in science teaching and learning. These emerging understandings were member-checked via a series of interviews with a subset of these teachers. Our analysis was conducted in two stages: (1) describing the difficulties the teachers identified for themselves in their attempts to teach science to a wide range of students in their classes and (2) analyzing these self-identified barriers for underlying beliefs and conceptions that serve to prohibit or allow for the teachers' understanding and enactment of equitable science instruction. The teachers' self-identified barriers were grouped into three categories: students, broader social infrastructure, and self. The more fundamental barriers identified included teacher beliefs about the ethnocentrism of the mainstream, essentialism/individualism, and beliefs about the meritocracy of schooling. The implications of these hurdles for science teacher education are discussed.

  15. World Class Teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Rosalita

    1998-01-01

    School communities are challenged to find ways to identify good teachers and give other teachers a chance to learn from them. The New Mexico World Class Teacher Project is encouraging teachers to pursue certification by the National Board for Professional Teaching Standards. This process sharpens teachers' student assessment skills and encourages…

  16. Multimedia Teacher Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leaman, Heather; DiLucchio, Connie

    2015-01-01

    In this qualitative study, two teacher educators and course instructors in a Masters of Education (M.Ed.) program explored beginning teacher researchers' use of multimedia to support action research. Fifty-eight teachers (36 in spring 2010 and 22 in spring 2011) completed teacher research as the capstone in their M.Ed. program. Teachers utilized…

  17. Students' and teachers' cognitions about good teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beishuizen, J J; Hof, E; van Putten, C M; Bouwmeester, S; Asscher, J J

    2001-06-01

    Good teachers have been studied ever since Plato described how Socrates taught by asking questions of his audience. Recent findings shed light on two characteristics of good teachers: their personality and their ability. However, more attention has been paid to teachers' practices and opinions than to students' views. The study reported here attempted to deepen our understanding of what students think about good teachers. Students of four age groups (7, 10, 13, and 16 years of age) and teachers from primary and secondary schools were asked to write an essay on the good teacher. The correspondence between conceptual items in the essays was investigated by determining the extent to which they were used in the same essays to describe good teachers. Correspondence analysis revealed two dimensions. The first dimension reflected the preference of students and teachers for describing the good teacher in terms of either personality or ability characteristics. The second dimension was interpreted as an orientation in the essays towards either attachment to, detachment from or commitment to school and teachers. Students and teachers were compared to establish the amount of (dis)agreement about what makes a good teacher. Primary school students described good teachers primarily as competent instructors, focusing on transfer of knowledge and skills, whereas secondary school students emphasised relational aspects of good teachers. Teachers, however, considered good teachers in the first place a matter of establishing personal relationships with their students. Consequently, primary school students and teachers disagreed about the characteristics of good teachers. In secondary education, disagreements between teachers and students were relatively small. The research method of collecting free essays and utilising correspondence analysis to represent conceptual items and groups of participants seems promising as long as a theoretical framework is available to interpret the

  18. Visual time series analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Hilbert, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a platform which supplies an easy-to-handle, interactive, extendable, and fast analysis tool for time series analysis. In contrast to other software suits like Maple, Matlab, or R, which use a command-line-like interface and where the user has to memorize/look-up the appropriate...... commands, our application is select-and-click-driven. It allows to derive many different sequences of deviations for a given time series and to visualize them in different ways in order to judge their expressive power and to reuse the procedure found. For many transformations or model-ts, the user may...... choose between manual and automated parameter selection. The user can dene new transformations and add them to the system. The application contains efficient implementations of advanced and recent techniques for time series analysis including techniques related to extreme value analysis and filtering...

  19. TEACHERS NEEDED

    CERN Multimedia

    2001-01-01

    The English Language Programme of the Lycée International de Ferney-Voltaire has two teaching posts available for la rentrée 2001. 1. Part-time teacher of Primary-level English Candidates for the post need to be mother-tongue English speakers. They should have a relevant degree and teaching qualification. The post involves teaching the English curriculum to pupils who are within the French educational system. Classes take place on Tuesday afternoons at the Lycée. Team spirit necessary as teachers work as a team. Induction & training are offered. 2. Part-time teacher of Secondary-level history-geography Candididates for the post need to be mother-tongue English speakers. They should have a relevant degree in history or geography and also a strong interest in the other subject. They should have a relevant teaching qualification and be confident classroom practioners. For more information on either of these posts please contact the school office on 04.50.40.82...

  20. The Victorian Age: A Teacher's Guide. Heritage Education Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Buren, Maurie

    This teaching guide accompanies a videocassette for teaching about the Victorian Era in the United States through the study of homes from that period. The teaching unit can be adopted for students in grades 4 through 12 and can also be used in college classes and in adult education. Skills are identified to help students interpret their physical…

  1. Rheumatoid Arthritis Educational Video Series

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Patient Webcasts / Rheumatoid Arthritis Educational Video Series Rheumatoid Arthritis Educational Video Series This series of five videos ... member of our patient care team. Managing Your Arthritis Managing Your Arthritis Managing Chronic Pain and Depression ...

  2. Rheumatoid Arthritis Educational Video Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Corner / Patient Webcasts / Rheumatoid Arthritis Educational Video Series Rheumatoid Arthritis Educational Video Series This series of five videos ... Your Arthritis Managing Chronic Pain and Depression in Arthritis Nutrition & Rheumatoid Arthritis Arthritis and Health-related Quality of Life ...

  3. Time Series Momentum

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moskowitz, Tobias J.; Ooi, Yao Hua; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2012-01-01

    We document significant “time series momentum” in equity index, currency, commodity, and bond futures for each of the 58 liquid instruments we consider. We find persistence in returns for one to 12 months that partially reverses over longer horizons, consistent with sentiment theories of initial...... under-reaction and delayed over-reaction. A diversified portfolio of time series momentum strategies across all asset classes delivers substantial abnormal returns with little exposure to standard asset pricing factors and performs best during extreme markets. Examining the trading activities...

  4. Applied time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Woodward, Wayne A; Elliott, Alan C

    2011-01-01

    ""There is scarcely a standard technique that the reader will find left out … this book is highly recommended for those requiring a ready introduction to applicable methods in time series and serves as a useful resource for pedagogical purposes.""-International Statistical Review (2014), 82""Current time series theory for practice is well summarized in this book.""-Emmanuel Parzen, Texas A&M University""What an extraordinary range of topics covered, all very insightfully. I like [the authors'] innovations very much, such as the AR factor table.""-David Findley, U.S. Census Bureau (retired)""…

  5. Teachers' Perceptions of Bullying among Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Karen J. S.; Willis, W. Grant

    2016-01-01

    A series of 48 vignettes of bullying was constructed by crossing (a) four kinds of social contact (physical aggression, verbal aggression, relational aggression, and non-aggression) with (b) male and female bullies, (c) male and female and victims, and (d) reaction of the victim (aggressive, passive, and no reaction). Teachers rated vignettes for…

  6. Culinary Arts Teachers Manual. Project HIRE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, David C.; And Others

    Designed as supplemental material to on-going instruction in the vocational program, this teacher's manual to the Culinary Arts series is intended to accompany three dictionary booklets (available as CE 024 415-417) for use by handicapped students to help them master the core vocabulary taught in the trade. Information presented in the manual…

  7. Introduction to Hospitality and Tourism. Teacher Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Susan S.

    This teacher's guide is the core publication of a series of instructional materials developed for the hospitality and tourism industry. It includes the entry-level competencies students will need to enter any of the occupational areas identified in the four cluster areas of the hospitality and tourism industry: lodging, food service, travel and…

  8. Workplace Literacy Teacher Training: The Context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Lois G.; And Others

    These three learning guides comprise one of four packages in the Workplace Literacy Teacher Training series that provides information and skills necessary for the user to become a successful instructor in an effective workplace literacy program. The guides in this package look at the unique environment and culture involved in providing education…

  9. Workplace Literacy Teacher Training: Strategies for Instruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Lois G.; And Others

    These four learning guides comprise one of four packages in the Workplace Literacy Teacher Training series that provides information and skills necessary for the user to become a successful instructor in an effective workplace literacy program. The guides in this package focus on the skills at the heart of such programs--communication, reading,…

  10. Powerful Learning Experiences and Suzuki Music Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuning-Hummel, Carrie; Meyer, Allison; Rowland, Gordon

    2016-01-01

    Powerful Learning Experiences (PLEs) of Suzuki music teachers were examined in this fifth study in a series. The definition of a PLE is: "Experiences that stand out in memory because of their high quality, their impact on one's thoughts and actions over time, and their transfer to a wide range of contexts and circumstances." Ten…

  11. Teacher-to-Teacher Mentoring. For Tech Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gora, Kathleen; Hinson, Janice

    2004-01-01

    Many principals want to provide effective professional development to assist teachers with technology integration, but they don't know where to begin. Sometimes teachers participate in professional development opportunities offered by local school districts, but these one-size-fits-all experiences seldom address teachers' specific needs or skill…

  12. The Black Man on Film: Racial Stereotyping. Hayden Film Attitudes and Issues Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Richard A.

    Motion pictures have long been recognized as a mirror of society's values and attitudes, and for motivational and impression-making impact they are unsurpassed. The Hayden Film Attitudes and Issues Series is based on the teacher's source book, the Celluloid Curriculum: How to Use Movies in the Classroom. This series presents written sources…

  13. Teacher Challenges to Implement Engineering Design in Secondary Technology Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Todd R.; Wicklein, Robert C.

    2009-01-01

    This descriptive study examined the current status of technology education teacher practices with respect to engineering design. This article is the third article in a three-part series presenting the results of this study. The first article in the series titled "Examination of Engineering Design Curriculum Content" highlighted the research…

  14. Danish television drama series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Degn, Hans-Peter; Krogager, Stinne Gunder Strøm

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, Danish television drama series have become an internationally acclaimed export success. This article analyses the development on the domestic market lying behind this international recognition. A change in production dogmas has formed the characteristics of these successful Danish...... the characteristics of these productions and the development of their audience profiles across age, gender and educational level....

  15. Composition: Unity - Diversity series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergstrøm-Nielsen, Carl

    2015-01-01

    Unity-Diversity series are open compositions to be realised by improvising musicians. See more about my composition practise in the entry "Composition - General Introduction". This work is licensed under a Creative Commons "by-nc" License. You may for non-commercial purposes use and distribute it...

  16. Series, Prof. George William

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Fellowship. Fellow Profile. Elected: 1984 Honorary. Series, Prof. George William. Date of birth: 22 February 1920. Date of death: 2 January 1995. YouTube; Twitter; Facebook; Blog. Academy News. IAS Logo. 29th Mid-year meeting. Posted on 19 January 2018. The 29th Mid-year meeting of the Academy will be held ...

  17. On the series

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Proceedings – Mathematical Sciences; Volume 115; Issue 4. On the Series ∑ k = 1 ∞ ( 3 k k ) − 1 k − n x k. Necdet Batir. Volume 115 Issue 4 November 2005 pp 371- ... Author Affiliations. Necdet Batir1. Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Yüzüncü Yil University, 65080 Van, Turkey ...

  18. Simple Hofmeister series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lyklema, J.

    2009-01-01

    Hofmeister, or lyotropic, series date back to 1888, when the founder arranged a large number of electrolytes in sequences with respect to their effectiveness salting out egg white. Since then the name has been applied to various phenomena involving ion specificity. In order to isolate effects

  19. A Dip into the World of Particles for Swedish Teachers

    CERN Multimedia

    2001-01-01

    For three full days, forty-one Swedish secondary school physics teachers were introduced to the rudiments of the particle physics. This series of courses is celebrating its tenth anniversary. The Swedish teachers followed lectures, visited CERN experiments... ... and analysed the latest DELPHI data. 'I am sure that, as in previous years, many of these teachers will return to CERN with their students. It is an excellent way of encouraging young people to orient themselves towards physics.' Staffan Hörnberg, Vice President of the International Centre for Education and Development, is enthusiastic about the repercussions of the teaching programme for Swedish teachers that he organises with CERN physicist, Richard Jacobsson. For the tenth consecutive year, this series of introductory courses to particle physics was a success. Forty-one teachers came from schools all over Sweden to take part in lectures and visits on the theme of particle physics, its methods of investigation, and its applications. San...

  20. Can a student learn optimally from two different teachers?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neirotti, J P

    2010-01-01

    We explore the effects of over-specificity in learning algorithms by investigating the behavior of a student, suited to learn optimally from a teacher B, learning from a teacher B' ≠ B. We only considered the supervised, on-line learning scenario with teachers selected from a particular family. We found that, in the general case, the application of the optimal algorithm to the wrong teacher produces a residual generalization error, even if the right teacher is harder. By imposing mild conditions to the learning algorithm form, we obtained an approximation for the residual generalization error. Simulations carried out in finite networks validate the estimate found.

  1. Parameter Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Heitzig, Martina; Cameron, Ian

    2011-01-01

    of optimisation techniques coupled with dynamic solution of the underlying model. Linear and nonlinear approaches to parameter estimation are investigated. There is also the application of maximum likelihood principles in the estimation of parameters, as well as the use of orthogonal collocation to generate a set......In this chapter the importance of parameter estimation in model development is illustrated through various applications related to reaction systems. In particular, rate constants in a reaction system are obtained through parameter estimation methods. These approaches often require the application...... of algebraic equations as the basis for parameter estimation.These approaches are illustrated using estimations of kinetic constants from reaction system models....

  2. Tracking MODIS NDVI time series to estimate fuel accumulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellie A. Uyeda; Douglas A. Stow; Philip J. Riggan

    2015-01-01

    Patterns of post-fire recovery in southern California chaparral shrublands are important for understanding fuel available for future fires. Satellite remote sensing provides an opportunity to examine these patterns over large spatial extents and at high temporal resolution. The relatively limited temporal range of satellite remote sensing products has previously...

  3. Spectral Estimation of Non-Gaussian Time Series

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fabián, Zdeněk

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 4 (2010), s. 491-499 ISSN 1210-0552 R&D Projects: GA MŠk ME 949 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : scalar score * power spectra * processes with infinite variance * processes with skewed distribution s Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.511, year: 2010

  4. Asymptotic behaviour of a rescattering series for nonlinear reggeons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akkelin, S.V.; Martynov, E.S.

    1990-01-01

    A series of elastic re-scattering (both quasi-eikonal and U-matrix ones) for reggeons with nonlinear trajectories are estimated asymptotically. The calculations are performed for models of supercritical and dipole pomerons. A weak dependence of the series of re-scattering on reggeon trajectory nonlinearity is revealed. 13 refs.; 3 figs

  5. Small Sample Properties of Bayesian Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Larry R.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the small sample (N = 1, 3, 5, 10, 15) performance of a Bayesian multivariate vector autoregressive (BVAR-SEM) time series model relative to frequentist power and parameter estimation bias. A multivariate autoregressive model was developed based on correlated autoregressive time series vectors of varying…

  6. Robust Forecasting of Non-Stationary Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Croux, C.; Fried, R.; Gijbels, I.; Mahieu, K.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a robust forecasting method for non-stationary time series. The time series is modelled using non-parametric heteroscedastic regression, and fitted by a localized MM-estimator, combining high robustness and large efficiency. The proposed method is shown to produce reliable

  7. Teacher Research Programs = Increased Student Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubner, J.

    2011-12-01

    Columbia University's Summer Research Program for Science Teachers (SRP), founded in 1990, is one of the largest, best known university professional development programs for science teachers in the U.S. For eight weeks in each of two consecutive summers, teachers participate as a member of a research team, led by a member of Columbia University's research faculty. In addition to the laboratory experience, all teachers meet weekly during the summer for a series of pedagogical activities to assist them in transferring the experience to their classrooms. The primary goal of the program is to provide K-12 science teachers with opportunities to work at the cutting edge of science and engineering, and thus to revitalize their teaching and help them to appreciate the use of inquiry-based methods in their classroom instruction. The secondary goals of the program are to give the pre-college teacher the ability to guide their students toward careers in science and engineering, to develop new teaching strategies, and to foster long-term scholarly collaborations. The last is especially important as it leads to a model of the teacher as active in science yet committed to the pre-college classroom. Since its inception, SRP has focused on an objective assessment of the program's impact on attitudes and instructional practices of participating teachers, on the performance of these teachers in their mentors' laboratories, and most importantly, on the impact of their participation in the program has on student interest and performance in science. Our research resulted in a paper published in the journal Science. SRP also facilitates a multi-site survey-based evaluation of other teacher research programs around the country. The author will present the findings of both studies.

  8. Teacher in Residence: Bringing Science to Students

    CERN Multimedia

    Daisy Yuhas

    CERN welcomes its first Teacher in Residence, Terrence Baine of the University of Oslo. Baine, who originally hails from Canada, will be concurrently completing his PhD in Physics Education during his time at CERN. Like CERN’s High School Teacher Programme (HST), of which Baine is an alumnus, the Teacher in Residence position is designed to help educators spread the science of CERN in a form that is accessible to students and can encourage them to pursue physics throughout their education.   Terrence Baine, first 'teacher in residence' at CERN Baine explains, “It’s very important to have a teacher present who can be that middle person between the young peoplecoming here, whom we are trying to enlighten, and the physicists who work at CERN. The Teacher in Residence can act as an on-site educational consultant.” As Teacher in Residence, Baine’s primary project will be to develop teaching modules, or a series of lesson plans, that can help high schoo...

  9. Japanese EFL Teachers' Perceptions of Communicative, Audiolingual and Yakudoku Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Greta Gorsuch

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the learning of English as a Foreign Language in Japanese high schools has become the focus of new educational policies applied at the national level. One of these is The Course of Study issue by the Ministry of Education, in which teachers are, for the first time in a long series of curriculum guidelines, adjured to develop students' "positive attitudes towards communicating in English." Another is the JET program, which has put thousands of native English speaking assistant language teachers (ALTs into Japanese secondary classrooms for the purpose of team teaching with Japanese teachers. Data resulting from a survey project of 876 Japanese high school English teachers was used to provide empirical evidence of teachers' levels of approval of communicative, audiolingual and traditional (yakudoku activities. Teachers were also asked to rate the strengths of a variety of influences on their instruction, including university entrance exams, and pre- and in-service teacher education programs. Teachers' perceptions of both activities and instructional influences were examined in light of teachers' length of career, type of school (private versus public, academic versus vocational, and level of contact with an ALT. The data revealed the complexities of imposing broad, national educational policies on a diverse group of teachers, and in an educational culture which likely precludes teachers' use of communicative activities.

  10. State Teacher Evaluation and Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchant, Gregory J.; David, Kristine A.; Rodgers, Deborah; German, Rachel L.

    2015-01-01

    Current accountability trends suggest an increasing role in state mandates regarding teacher evaluation. With various evaluation models and components serving as the basis for quality teaching, teacher education programs need to recognize the role teacher evaluation plays and incorporate aspects where appropriate. This article makes that case and…

  11. Teacher Leadership: Teacher Self-Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    American Institutes for Research, 2017

    2017-01-01

    As interest in teacher leadership has grown, many leading organizations have developed tools and guidance to support schools, districts, and teacher leaders themselves. In collaboration and consultation with the Regional Educational Laboratory (REL) Midwest Educator Effectiveness Research Alliance, REL Midwest and the Center on Great Teachers and…

  12. State energy data report 1994: Consumption estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-10-01

    This document provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), operated by EIA. SEDS provides State energy consumption estimates to members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and provides the historical series needed for EIA`s energy models. Division is made for each energy type and end use sector. Nuclear electric power is included.

  13. State energy data report 1994: Consumption estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-10-01

    This document provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), operated by EIA. SEDS provides State energy consumption estimates to members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and provides the historical series needed for EIA's energy models. Division is made for each energy type and end use sector. Nuclear electric power is included

  14. Travelling educational workshops for clinical teachers: are they worthwhile?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Peter; Pullon, Sue

    2011-03-01

    The support of doctors who teach medical students in clinical settings is considered very important. In order to function as effectively as possible in their role as clinical teachers, these clinicians require educational support from faculty members. The most usual form that support takes is university staff offering face-to-face teaching on educational topics. It is estimated that in the course of 1 year, and across the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Otago, there could be up to 600 clinicians actively involved in the direct support of medical students. Many of these clinicians work in locations some considerable distance from the university campus. In 2009 the Medical Education Unit based at the Wellington Campus introduced a series of peripatetic face-to-face workshops for clinical teachers in several different geographical locations. Educational support of this nature is challenging to organise and potentially expensive, which begs the question: are travelling workshops worthwhile? Whereas the subject matter of the workshops was of interest to those who attended, of equal importance was the opportunity the workshops created to interact with colleagues in a relaxed atmosphere. In addition, the workshops were the catalyst for some clinicians to formally pursue their particular educational interests. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2011.

  15. A Tripartite Model of EFL Teacher Attributions, Burnout, and Self-Regulation: Toward the Prospects of Effective Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanizadeh, Afsaneh; Ghonsooly, Behzad

    2014-01-01

    The present study aims at delving into English as foreign language teachers' attributions by investigating the role of teacher attributions in teacher burnout and teacher self-regulation. This is accomplished by building a causal structural model through which the associations among these constructs are estimated. The results demonstrate that…

  16. A New Teacher's Plea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Brian K.

    2012-01-01

    New teachers are often too overwhelmed by their new responsibilities to be the effective teachers they wish to be. Brian K. Jones, a new teacher who loves his job but still thinks of quitting at least once a month, says that teachers need a more comprehensive system of supports before and after they enter the classroom. Such a system would include…

  17. Teacher Learning by Script

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeves, Jenelle

    2010-01-01

    Scripted instruction (SI) programs, which direct teachers to teach, even to talk, from a standardized written script, are roundly criticized for inhibiting teacher creativity and teacher learning. In fact, such programs utilize scripting for exactly that reason: to reduce teacher interference with (and presumed weakening of) the prescribed…

  18. Measuring Teacher Dispositions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Delar K.; Stoloff, David L.

    2007-01-01

    Teacher quality has become a top priority of our national agenda. There is empirical evidence that suggests that teacher inputs have impact on student outcomes. It is also believed that teacher dispositions are as crucial for student achievement as a teacher's pedagogical and content knowledge/skills. The National Council for Accreditation of…

  19. The Rutter Children Behaviour Questionnaire for teachers: from psychometrics to norms, estimating caseness Inventário do comportamento de Rutter para professores: da psicometria as normas, estimando casos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M. Klein

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available To establish the psychometric properties of the RCBQ for completion by teachers and to determine behavioural and emotional problems in young children, as they occur in the classroom, we asked 45 elementary school teachers of the north of Portugal to rate classroom behaviour of their pupils based on Rutter Children's Behaviour Questionnaire for teachers. A total of 970 Portuguese mid class children (530 girls and 440 boys aged between 8 to 11 years (M=8.47; SD=.771 were evaluated. A two factor structure was found to be suitable, exhibiting an acceptable reliability and test-retest values along a 3-month period. An average of 16.1% of the pupils exhibited some behavioural problems, where teachers described anxiety (3.1%, worry (5.1% and unconcentration (14.1% as the most prevalent symptoms. The findings suggest that the translated scale could serve as a rapid and useful screening instrument in clinical and in research settings.Com o objetivo de estabelecer as propriedades psicométricas do Inventário do Comportamento de Rutter na sua forma completa para professores e, determinar os problemas comportamentais e emocionais em crianças, tal como eles ocorrem na sala de aula, foi pedido a 45 professores do 1º CEB do Norte de Portugal para classificarem os comportamentos de 970 alunos (530 meninas e 440 meninos, com idades compreendidas entre os 8 e os 11 anos (M =8,47; DP=0,771. Foi encontrada uma estrutura fatorial de dois fatores, que exibiu uma fidelidade e valores de teste-reteste aceitáveis ao longo de um período de 3 meses. Verificou-se que 16,1% dos alunos apresentavam algum problema ao nível do comportamento, e foram descritos pelos professores como os sintomas mais prevalentes: ansiedade (3,1%, preocupação (5,1% e dificuldades de concentração (1,.1%. Os resultados mostram que o instrumento traduzido pode ser útil e simples tanto em contexto clínico como de investigação.

  20. Analysis of complex time series using refined composite multiscale entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Shuen-De; Wu, Chiu-Wen; Lin, Shiou-Gwo; Lee, Kung-Yen; Peng, Chung-Kang

    2014-01-01

    Multiscale entropy (MSE) is an effective algorithm for measuring the complexity of a time series that has been applied in many fields successfully. However, MSE may yield an inaccurate estimation of entropy or induce undefined entropy because the coarse-graining procedure reduces the length of a time series considerably at large scales. Composite multiscale entropy (CMSE) was recently proposed to improve the accuracy of MSE, but it does not resolve undefined entropy. Here we propose a refined composite multiscale entropy (RCMSE) to improve CMSE. For short time series analyses, we demonstrate that RCMSE increases the accuracy of entropy estimation and reduces the probability of inducing undefined entropy.

  1. A taylor series approach to survival analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brodsky, J.B.; Groer, P.G.

    1984-09-01

    A method of survival analysis using hazard functions is developed. The method uses the well known mathematical theory for Taylor Series. Hypothesis tests of the adequacy of many statistical models, including proportional hazards and linear and/or quadratic dose responses, are obtained. A partial analysis of leukemia mortality in the Life Span Study cohort is used as an example. Furthermore, a relatively robust estimation procedure for the proportional hazards model is proposed. (author)

  2. Breaking Ground: Analysis of the Assessment System and Impact of Mexico's Teacher Incentive Program "Carrera Magisterial." Technical Report. Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santibariz, Lucrecia; Martinez, Jose Felipe; Datar, Ashlesha; McEwan, Patrick J.; Setodji, Claude Messan; Basurto-Davilao, Ricardo

    2007-01-01

    Mexico's Carrera Magisterial was instituted in 1992 and designed jointly by the federal education authorities, state authorities, and the teachers' union as a horizontal promotion system that rewards teachers with salary bonuses on the basis of their performance. Teacher performance is evaluated through a series of assessments, including teacher…

  3. Teacher Interrupted

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosie Mulholland

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A sample of 399 secondary school teachers (156 males, 243 females, 18 schools responded to a survey questionnaire containing one measure of stress and two measures of strain. The Stressors in Teaching Scale (SITS, developed specifically to place work stress within the Scottish “teaching” context (Mulholland, 2005, gauged work stress. The General Health Questionnaire-30 (GHQ-30; Goldberg, 1972 and Glasgow Symptom Checklist (GSC; Mahmood, 1999 presented a unique opportunity to compare teachers’ perception of strain with a “general” and “clinical” population. Positive correlations were observed between work stress and strain. Perceptions of work stress and strain differed significantly according to teaching role. Quantitative job demands (e.g., “workload” was the main predictor of strain, and middle managers, who held leadership and classroom teaching responsibilities, reported this feature of work and “changing demands” specifically, as significantly more stressful than senior managers. Middle managers’ experiences of work were reflective of a “pile-up” of stressors, indicative of quantitative and qualitative overload. Crucially, 22% of middle managers recorded strain scores (GHQ-30 case indicative of psychiatric morbidity, and approximately 67% had experienced feelings of “personal ineffectiveness” and “depression” (GSC, normally associated with a “clinical” population. The unique interaction of “stressors” associated with teacher role, job demands, and job resources highlighted a range of risk factors (e.g., “workload,” “teaching-learning interface,” “professional ethos,” “change,” and “role” that have the potential to affect health in the long term.

  4. Co-operation Between Science Teachers and Mathematics Teachers. Volumes 1-6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogerson, Alan, Ed.

    This document contains six separate works, titled: (1) Functions and Physics; (2) Links Between Geography and Mathematics; (3) Our Inheritance: Common Ground for the Mathematics and Biology Teacher; (4) Mathematics and Chemistry: The Classroom Interface; (5) Mathematical Modeling; and (6) Mathematical Modeling with Calculus. This series of…

  5. Historia de las series

    OpenAIRE

    Cascajosa Virino, Concepción

    2017-01-01

    Reseña: Historia de las series de Toni de la Torre: la gran impostura Durante mucho tiempo los profesores de cine en España se han quejado (amargamente y en privado) de la recurrencia en la bibliografía de los trabajos de sus estudiantes de los libros de un autor conocido por la escasa calidad de sus textos, cuyos vistosos títulos garantizan que acaben en las estanterías de las bibliotecas universitarias. Es muy propio de la cultura española hacer duras aseveraciones en foros irrelevantes y, ...

  6. Infinite sequences and series

    CERN Document Server

    Knopp, Konrad

    1956-01-01

    One of the finest expositors in the field of modern mathematics, Dr. Konrad Knopp here concentrates on a topic that is of particular interest to 20th-century mathematicians and students. He develops the theory of infinite sequences and series from its beginnings to a point where the reader will be in a position to investigate more advanced stages on his own. The foundations of the theory are therefore presented with special care, while the developmental aspects are limited by the scope and purpose of the book. All definitions are clearly stated; all theorems are proved with enough detail to ma

  7. Tattoo reaction: Case series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muneer Mohamed

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Tattoo is going to be a very common practice especially among young people and we are witnessing a gradual increase of numerous potential complications to tattoo placement which are often seen by physicians, but generally unknown to the public. The most common skin reactions to tattoo include a transient acute inflammatory reaction due to trauma of the skin with needles and medical complications such as superficial and deep local infections, systemic infections, allergic contact dermatitis, photodermatitis, granulomatous and lichenoid reactions, and skin diseases localized on tattooed area (eczema, psoriasis, lichen, and morphea. In this series we present three cases of tattoo reaction.

  8. Murderers: a personal series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, N

    1979-01-27

    One hundred people who were accused either of murder (70 persons) or of attempted murder (30 persons) in Queensland were personally examined by the writer. The methods, motives, and ways of prevention of homicide are discussed. A considerable preportion of murderers in this series were either mentally ill or severely emotionally disturbed at the time the crime was committed, and at least one in 10 of these murders could have been prevented. It is recommended that the treatment and assessment of potentially violent psychotic patients should be undertaken more carefully, and that the antipsychiatrist campaigns for the freedom of the individual should be tempered with a consideration for public safety.

  9. Square summable power series

    CERN Document Server

    de Branges, Louis

    2015-01-01

    This text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students introduces Hilbert space and analytic function theory, which is centered around the invariant subspace concept. The book's principal feature is the extensive use of formal power series methods to obtain and sometimes reformulate results of analytic function theory. The presentation is elementary in that it requires little previous knowledge of analysis, but it is designed to lead students to an advanced level of performance. This is achieved chiefly through the use of problems, many of which were proposed by former students. The book's

  10. Forecasting Long Memory Series Subject to Structural Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dias, Gustavo Fruet; Papailias, Fotis

    A two-stage forecasting approach for long memory time series is introduced. In the first step we estimate the fractional exponent and, applying the fractional differencing operator, we obtain the underlying weakly dependent series. In the second step, we perform the multi-step ahead forecasts...... for the weakly dependent series and obtain their long memory counterparts by applying the fractional cumulation operator. The methodology applies to stationary and nonstationary cases. Simulations and an application to seven time series provide evidence that the new methodology is more robust to structural...... change and yields good forecasting results....

  11. Introduction to Time Series Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Kitagawa, Genshiro

    2010-01-01

    In time series modeling, the behavior of a certain phenomenon is expressed in relation to the past values of itself and other covariates. Since many important phenomena in statistical analysis are actually time series and the identification of conditional distribution of the phenomenon is an essential part of the statistical modeling, it is very important and useful to learn fundamental methods of time series modeling. Illustrating how to build models for time series using basic methods, "Introduction to Time Series Modeling" covers numerous time series models and the various tools f

  12. Evaluating clinical teachers with the Maastricht clinical teaching questionnaire: how much 'teacher' is in student ratings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boerboom, Tobias B B; Mainhard, Tim; Dolmans, Diana H J M; Scherpbier, Albert J J A; Van Beukelen, Peter; Jaarsma, A D C

    2012-01-01

    Students are a popular source of data to evaluate the performance of clinical teachers. Instruments to obtain student evaluations must have proven validity. One aspect of validity that often remains underexposed is the possibility of effects of between-student differences and teacher and student characteristics not directly related to teaching performance. The authors examined the occurrence of such effects, using multilevel analysis to analyse data from the Maastricht clinical teaching questionnaire (MCTQ), a validated evaluation instrument, in a veterinary curriculum. The 15-item MCTQ covers five domains. The authors used multilevel analysis to divide the variance in the domain scores in components related to, respectively, teachers and students. They estimated subsequent models to explore how the MCTQ scores are dependent on teacher and student characteristics. Significant amounts of variance in student ratings were due to between-teacher differences, particularly for learning climate, modelling and coaching. The effects of teacher and student characteristics were mostly non-significant or small. Large portions of variance in MCTQ scores were due to differences between teachers, while the contribution of student and teacher characteristics was negligible. The results support the validity of student ratings obtained with the MCTQ for evaluating teacher performance.

  13. Reconstructing the science teaching in initial series through continuing education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana Margarete Kurzmann Fagundes

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the report of an investigation whose aim was to know the focus on Science teaching in initial series of elementary school and to understand the contributions of teacher’s participation in study groups for transformation of teaching practice in Sciences classes. It’s believed that the role of teachers is to give to their students opportunities for construction/reconstruction of knowledge. Thus, there is essential that teachers keep themselves in constant training The study was conducted with teachers of initial series (to 1st from 4th from a school from the Rio Grande do Sul (RS state in the 2006 / 2007 period. A qualitative analysis methodology was employed in this study, and data was obtained in the natural environment, namely,the school. Through Discoursive Textual Analysis (MORAES and GALIAZZI, 2007 about the data that was collected, it was concluded that the study groups can contribute to transformation and to development of pedagogical teacher’s practice, particularly in regard to Sciences classes, as well on student learning, ie the construction of their knowledge. It has been observed a growth of the group in the course of the meetings, not only by the concern of the teachers in changing their classes, but also to taking the necessary decisions to make it possible.

  14. State Energy Data Report, 1991: Consumption estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-05-01

    The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to the Government, policy makers, and the public; and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA's energy models

  15. State energy data report 1993: Consumption estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-07-01

    The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public; and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.

  16. Antiderivative Series for Differentiable Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Roy M.

    2004-01-01

    A series defining the antiderivative of an n th order differentiable function is defined. This series provides an explicit expression for the second part of the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus and can facilitate the establishment of new antiderivative functions.

  17. GPS Position Time Series @ JPL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Susan; Moore, Angelyn; Kedar, Sharon; Liu, Zhen; Webb, Frank; Heflin, Mike; Desai, Shailen

    2013-01-01

    Different flavors of GPS time series analysis at JPL - Use same GPS Precise Point Positioning Analysis raw time series - Variations in time series analysis/post-processing driven by different users. center dot JPL Global Time Series/Velocities - researchers studying reference frame, combining with VLBI/SLR/DORIS center dot JPL/SOPAC Combined Time Series/Velocities - crustal deformation for tectonic, volcanic, ground water studies center dot ARIA Time Series/Coseismic Data Products - Hazard monitoring and response focused center dot ARIA data system designed to integrate GPS and InSAR - GPS tropospheric delay used for correcting InSAR - Caltech's GIANT time series analysis uses GPS to correct orbital errors in InSAR - Zhen Liu's talking tomorrow on InSAR Time Series analysis

  18. Outlier detection algorithms for least squares time series regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Bent

    We review recent asymptotic results on some robust methods for multiple regression. The regressors include stationary and non-stationary time series as well as polynomial terms. The methods include the Huber-skip M-estimator, 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators, in particular the Impulse Indicator Sat...

  19. Conditional mode regression: Application to functional time series prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Laksaci, Ali

    2008-01-01

    We consider $\\alpha$-mixing observations and deal with the estimation of the conditional mode of a scalar response variable $Y$ given a random variable $X$ taking values in a semi-metric space. We provide a convergence rate in $L^p$ norm of the estimator. A useful and typical application to functional times series prediction is given.

  20. Building Chaotic Model From Incomplete Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siek, Michael; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2010-05-01

    This paper presents a number of novel techniques for building a predictive chaotic model from incomplete time series. A predictive chaotic model is built by reconstructing the time-delayed phase space from observed time series and the prediction is made by a global model or adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space. In general, the building of any data-driven models depends on the completeness and quality of the data itself. However, the completeness of the data availability can not always be guaranteed since the measurement or data transmission is intermittently not working properly due to some reasons. We propose two main solutions dealing with incomplete time series: using imputing and non-imputing methods. For imputing methods, we utilized the interpolation methods (weighted sum of linear interpolations, Bayesian principle component analysis and cubic spline interpolation) and predictive models (neural network, kernel machine, chaotic model) for estimating the missing values. After imputing the missing values, the phase space reconstruction and chaotic model prediction are executed as a standard procedure. For non-imputing methods, we reconstructed the time-delayed phase space from observed time series with missing values. This reconstruction results in non-continuous trajectories. However, the local model prediction can still be made from the other dynamical neighbors reconstructed from non-missing values. We implemented and tested these methods to construct a chaotic model for predicting storm surges at Hoek van Holland as the entrance of Rotterdam Port. The hourly surge time series is available for duration of 1990-1996. For measuring the performance of the proposed methods, a synthetic time series with missing values generated by a particular random variable to the original (complete) time series is utilized. There exist two main performance measures used in this work: (1) error measures between the actual

  1. An Evaluation of American English File Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behnam Ghasemi

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Textbooks play a pivotal role in language learning classrooms. The problem is that among a wide range of textbooks in market which is appropriate for a specific classroom and a group of learners. In order to evaluate ELT textbooks theorists and writers have offered different kinds of evaluative frameworks based on a number of principles and criteria. This study evaluates a series of ELT textbook, namely, American English File by the use of Littlejohn’s (1998 evaluative framework to see what explicit features of the book are, what pedagogic values it has, whether it is in line with its claimed objectives, and what its merits and demerits are. Littlejohn believes that we should evaluate a textbook based on its own pedagogic values and we should see what is in it not what teacher and evaluators think must exist in it. Consequently his framework is claimed to be devoid of any impressionistic ideas and it is in-depth and objective rather than being subjective. Nine ELT experts and ten ELT teachers helped the researcher rate the evaluative checklists. The results of the study show that although a number of shortcomings and drawbacks were found in American English File, it stood up reasonably well to a detailed and in-depth analysis and that its pedagogic values and positive attributes far out-weighed its shortcomings. The internal consistency between ratings was computed via the statistical tool of Cronbach’s alpha that indicated a desirable inter-rater reliability.

  2. Rheumatoid Arthritis Educational Video Series

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Corner / Patient Webcasts / Rheumatoid Arthritis Educational Video Series Rheumatoid Arthritis Educational Video Series This series of five videos ... Your Arthritis Managing Chronic Pain and Depression in Arthritis Nutrition & Rheumatoid Arthritis Arthritis and Health-related Quality of Life ...

  3. Harmonic Series Meets Fibonacci Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hongwei; Kennedy, Chris

    2012-01-01

    The terms of a conditionally convergent series may be rearranged to converge to any prescribed real value. What if the harmonic series is grouped into Fibonacci length blocks? Or the harmonic series is arranged in alternating Fibonacci length blocks? Or rearranged and alternated into separate blocks of even and odd terms of Fibonacci length?

  4. Globe: Lecture series

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    The LHC: an accelerator of science This series of lectures is all about understanding the scientific and technological challenges of the phenomenal LHC project and assessing its innovations through their everyday applications. Come and take a sneak preview of the LHC! Communicate: the Grid, a computer of global dimensions François Grey, head of communication in CERN’s Information Technology Department How will it be possible for the 15 million billion bytes of data generated by the LHC every year to be handled and stored by a computer that doesn’t have to be the size of a skyscraper? The computer scientists have the answer: the Grid, which will harness the power of tens of thousands of computers all over the world by creating a network of computers and making them operate as one. >>> Lectures are free and require no specialist knowledge. In french. 
 >>> By reservation only: tel. +41 (0)22 767 76 76

  5. Teacher Professional Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nareerat Rakwichitkul

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Teacher professional development are the teachers’ learning process throughout their career stages to ensure that teachers have knowledge, skills and needed competencies for teaching among rapid changes in social, economic and technology which have the impact on learning and teaching. This article deals with the topics of the framework for teaching, teacher career stages and teacher professional development. The research findings related to teacher professional development, teacher professional development activities, suggestions for planning the professional development. Those research findings can be applied and implemented by the school principals, educational supervisors and other professional developers.

  6. Listen-Identify-Brainstorm-Reality-Test-Encourage (LIBRE) Problem-Solving Model: Addressing Special Education Teacher Attrition through a Cognitive-Behavioral Approach to Teacher Induction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra, Norma S.; Hernandez, Art; Hector, Alison M.; Crosby, Shane

    2015-01-01

    Special education teacher attrition rates continue to challenge the profession. A cognitive-behavioral problem-solving approach was used to examine three alternative certification program special education teachers' professional development through a series of 41 interviews conducted over a 2-year period. Beginning when they were novice special…

  7. Entropy estimates of small data sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonachela, Juan A; Munoz, Miguel A [Departamento de Electromagnetismo y Fisica de la Materia and Instituto de Fisica Teorica y Computacional Carlos I, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada (Spain); Hinrichsen, Haye [Fakultaet fuer Physik und Astronomie, Universitaet Wuerzburg, Am Hubland, 97074 Wuerzburg (Germany)

    2008-05-23

    Estimating entropies from limited data series is known to be a non-trivial task. Naive estimations are plagued with both systematic (bias) and statistical errors. Here, we present a new 'balanced estimator' for entropy functionals (Shannon, Renyi and Tsallis) specially devised to provide a compromise between low bias and small statistical errors, for short data series. This new estimator outperforms other currently available ones when the data sets are small and the probabilities of the possible outputs of the random variable are not close to zero. Otherwise, other well-known estimators remain a better choice. The potential range of applicability of this estimator is quite broad specially for biological and digital data series. (fast track communication)

  8. Entropy estimates of small data sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonachela, Juan A; Munoz, Miguel A; Hinrichsen, Haye

    2008-01-01

    Estimating entropies from limited data series is known to be a non-trivial task. Naive estimations are plagued with both systematic (bias) and statistical errors. Here, we present a new 'balanced estimator' for entropy functionals (Shannon, Renyi and Tsallis) specially devised to provide a compromise between low bias and small statistical errors, for short data series. This new estimator outperforms other currently available ones when the data sets are small and the probabilities of the possible outputs of the random variable are not close to zero. Otherwise, other well-known estimators remain a better choice. The potential range of applicability of this estimator is quite broad specially for biological and digital data series. (fast track communication)

  9. Screen Twice, Cut Once: Assessing the Predictive Validity of Teacher Selection Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldhaber, Dan; Grout, Cyrus; Huntington-Klein, Nick

    2015-01-01

    It is well documented that teachers can have profound effects on student outcomes. Empirical estimates find that a one standard deviation increase in teacher quality raises student test achievement by 10 to 25 percent of a standard deviation. More recent evidence shows that the effectiveness of teachers can affect long-term student outcomes, such…

  10. Exploring Mechanisms of Effective Teacher Coaching: A Tale of Two Cohorts From a Randomized Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blazar, David; Kraft, Matthew A.

    2015-01-01

    Although previous research has shown that teacher coaching can improve teaching practices and student achievement, little is known about specific features of effective coaching programs. We estimate the impact of MATCH Teacher Coaching (MTC) on a range of teacher practices using a blocked randomized trial and explore how changes in the coaching…

  11. Resources to Meet the Educational Needs of Language Minorities: Teachers in Public Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waggoner, Dorothy

    Findings are presented from the Teachers Language Skills Survey, the first national survey undertaken to estimate how many teachers currently employed in public schools have the backgrounds, experience, education, and skills needed to teach students with limited-English proficiency. Information was gathered on teachers teaching in the 1976-77…

  12. Elementary and Middle School Teacher Perceptions of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Prevalence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabiano, Gregory A.; Pelham, William E., Jr.; Majumdar, Antara; Evans, Steven W.; Manos, Michael J.; Caserta, Donald; Girio-Herrera, Erin L.; Pisecco, Stewart; Hannah, Jane N.; Carter, Randy L.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Estimates of ADHD diagnosis and stimulant medication use vary across studies. Few studies ascertain the teacher perspective on these rates. Objective: To ascertain teachers' perceptions of ADHD prevalence and medication treatment within their classrooms. Method: The present school survey collected teacher report of identified children…

  13. Estimation of spectral kurtosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutawanir

    2017-03-01

    Rolling bearings are the most important elements in rotating machinery. Bearing frequently fall out of service for various reasons: heavy loads, unsuitable lubrications, ineffective sealing. Bearing faults may cause a decrease in performance. Analysis of bearing vibration signals has attracted attention in the field of monitoring and fault diagnosis. Bearing vibration signals give rich information for early detection of bearing failures. Spectral kurtosis, SK, is a parameter in frequency domain indicating how the impulsiveness of a signal varies with frequency. Faults in rolling bearings give rise to a series of short impulse responses as the rolling elements strike faults, SK potentially useful for determining frequency bands dominated by bearing fault signals. SK can provide a measure of the distance of the analyzed bearings from a healthy one. SK provides additional information given by the power spectral density (psd). This paper aims to explore the estimation of spectral kurtosis using short time Fourier transform known as spectrogram. The estimation of SK is similar to the estimation of psd. The estimation falls in model-free estimation and plug-in estimator. Some numerical studies using simulations are discussed to support the methodology. Spectral kurtosis of some stationary signals are analytically obtained and used in simulation study. Kurtosis of time domain has been a popular tool for detecting non-normality. Spectral kurtosis is an extension of kurtosis in frequency domain. The relationship between time domain and frequency domain analysis is establish through power spectrum-autocovariance Fourier transform. Fourier transform is the main tool for estimation in frequency domain. The power spectral density is estimated through periodogram. In this paper, the short time Fourier transform of the spectral kurtosis is reviewed, a bearing fault (inner ring and outer ring) is simulated. The bearing response, power spectrum, and spectral kurtosis are plotted to

  14. From Networks to Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimada, Yutaka; Ikeguchi, Tohru; Shigehara, Takaomi

    2012-10-01

    In this Letter, we propose a framework to transform a complex network to a time series. The transformation from complex networks to time series is realized by the classical multidimensional scaling. Applying the transformation method to a model proposed by Watts and Strogatz [Nature (London) 393, 440 (1998)], we show that ring lattices are transformed to periodic time series, small-world networks to noisy periodic time series, and random networks to random time series. We also show that these relationships are analytically held by using the circulant-matrix theory and the perturbation theory of linear operators. The results are generalized to several high-dimensional lattices.

  15. Problems of discipline in primary and secondary school: Teachers' opinions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savović Branka B.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Investigations carried out in late 2001 in primary and secondary schools of Belgrade, Novi Sad and Niš comprised students, teachers and associates. The aim of investigations was to get insight into the state-of-the-arts problems and needs of our primary and secondary schools. The paper is a part of investigations, related to the results obtained for students' opinions of their interrelations with teachers as well as opinions of teachers themselves. The sample comprised 727 students of 4th grade of secondary vocational and high schools, 562 students of 8th grade of primary schools 168 secondary school and 107 primary school teachers. We investigated their interrelationships and within this framework the level of potential or current aggressive behavior. The majority of teachers (51% estimated student-teacher relationships mediocre - neither good nor bad. The most frequent problem in students' behavior is, according to the teachers instruction disturbance. One-quarter of teachers find that students offend them, ridicule them, or mock at them in front of others, and 5 per cent complain of physical injury intimidation on the part of students. When a problem comes up, 18 per cent of teachers talk with a student, and nearly 10 per cent of teachers give lower grades in their subject, so as to punish a student for undisciplined behaviors. In teachers' opinion, society, school the least, is to be blamed for the situation.

  16. PRACTICUM EXPERIENCE IN TEACHER EDUCATION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    therefore, argued that the academic program of the teacher education should be coupled ... practicum which provides students with supervised experiences and help the student teachers to ... Lecturer, Department of Pedagogy, Eduction Faculty, Jimma University. ... teachers, different approaches to teacher .... Leadership.

  17. Views on Values Education: From Teacher Candidates to Experienced Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iscan, Canay Demirhan

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to identify the views of experienced class teachers and class teacher candidates on values education. It conducted standard open-ended interviews with experienced class teachers and teacher candidates. The study group comprised 9 experienced class teachers from different socio-economic levels and 9 teacher candidates with…

  18. Teacher Effectiveness of Secondary School Teachers with High Tacit Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumthas, N. S.; Blessytha, Anwar

    2009-01-01

    To be a great teacher, more than content knowledge, teacher also needs practical and technical knowledge that contribute to teacher effectiveness. A teacher with high tacit knowledge is usually considered an expert teacher. The purpose of this study is to find out whether teachers with high tacit knowledge give equal preference to the various…

  19. ICT AND TEACHERS' PERFORMANCE IN TERMS OF LESSON ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. BARTH EKWEME

    Delivery Questionnaire (ICTTPLIDO) Developed by the researcher. The reliability estimate of ... teachers' performance in lesson preparation and delivery through the use of Information and ... information to accomplish the task, and evaluating ...

  20. Democracy in schools: are educators ready for teacher leadership?

    OpenAIRE

    Elsabé de Villiers; SG (Fanie) Pretorius

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this research was to determine educators' perceptions of and readiness for teacher leadership. A total of 283 educators in the Eden and Central Karoo Education District in the Western Cape participated in the study. The participants included district officials, principals, and members of school management teams, as well as veteran, middle, and novice educators. A series of instruments was used to determine educators' perspectives, perceptions and readiness for teacher leadership, i...

  1. An evaluation of a professional learning network for computer science teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutts, Quintin; Robertson, Judy; Donaldson, Peter; O'Donnell, Laurie

    2017-01-01

    This paper describes and evaluates aspects of a professional development programme for existing CS teachers in secondary schools (PLAN C) which was designed to support teachers at a time of substantial curricular change. The paper's particular focus is on the formation of a teacher professional development network across several hundred teachers and a wide geographical area. Evidence from a series of observations and teacher surveys over a two-year period is analysed with respect to the project's programme theory in order to illustrate not only whether it worked as intended, by why. Results indicate that the PLAN C design has been successful in increasing teachers' professional confidence and appears to have catalysed powerful change in attitudes to learning. Presentation of challenging pedagogical content knowledge and conceptual frameworks, high-quality teacher-led professional dialogue, along with the space for reflection and classroom trials, triggered examination of the teachers' own current practices.

  2. 'Hidden poverty' of teachers: Status, consequences and overcoming strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogunović Blanka

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of reduced financial and other possibilities in the period of social transition are reflected on the quality of life and work of teachers, and thereby indirectly on education of pupils as well. Aims: (1 to determine teachers' estimation of their own financial status and subjective perception of teachers' poverty; (2 to examine in which way the personal perception of poverty of teachers is linked with the quality of their engagement in curricular and extracurricular activities; (3 to examine which economic and psychological strategies teachers use in overcoming stress because of the lower financial status; (4 to examine whether there are differences between teachers with regard to socio-demographic variables and the previously established goals. Sample consists of 141 teachers of music and general education schools in Belgrade and the interior of the country. Method: research is explorative and uses qualitative and psychometric methods of analysis. Results point out to the structure of 'hidden poverty' of teachers: average and poor financial status, financial and logistic support of the extended family, additional job, unfulfilled financial expectations regarding the educational status and ungratified higher needs. Teachers estimate that real poverty of educational system and 'hidden poverty' of teachers are reflected on the quality of certain aspects of educational process as a whole and in certain elements: teacher's personal life and work motivation, authority in school, quality of teacher's engagement in tuition and the possibility of professional specialization. Teachers use financial and psychological strategies for overcoming stress that can be determined as: moralist compensatory, evasive, inappropriate, emotional, relying on family and friendly supportive systems and activist. Conclusion: primarily subjective and spiritual impoverishment of the stratum of highly educated people, who are, in addition to this, the bearers

  3. The Surtsey Magma Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schipper, C Ian; Jakobsson, Sveinn P; White, James D L; Michael Palin, J; Bush-Marcinowski, Tim

    2015-06-26

    The volcanic island of Surtsey (Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland) is the product of a 3.5-year-long eruption that began in November 1963. Observations of magma-water interaction during pyroclastic episodes made Surtsey the type example of shallow-to-emergent phreatomagmatic eruptions. Here, in part to mark the 50(th) anniversary of this canonical eruption, we present previously unpublished major-element whole-rock compositions, and new major and trace-element compositions of sideromelane glasses in tephra collected by observers and retrieved from the 1979 drill core. Compositions became progressively more primitive as the eruption progressed, with abrupt changes corresponding to shifts between the eruption's four edifices. Trace-element ratios indicate that the chemical variation is best explained by mixing of different proportions of depleted ridge-like basalt, with ponded, enriched alkalic basalt similar to that of Iceland's Eastern Volcanic Zone; however, the systematic offset of Surtsey compositions to lower Nb/Zr than other Vestmannaeyjar lavas indicates that these mixing end members are as-yet poorly contained by compositions in the literature. As the southwestern-most volcano in the Vestmannaeyjar, the geochemistry of the Surtsey Magma Series exemplifies processes occurring within ephemeral magma bodies on the extreme leading edge of a propagating off-axis rift in the vicinity of the Iceland plume.

  4. Modelling bursty time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vajna, Szabolcs; Kertész, János; Tóth, Bálint

    2013-01-01

    Many human-related activities show power-law decaying interevent time distribution with exponents usually varying between 1 and 2. We study a simple task-queuing model, which produces bursty time series due to the non-trivial dynamics of the task list. The model is characterized by a priority distribution as an input parameter, which describes the choice procedure from the list. We give exact results on the asymptotic behaviour of the model and we show that the interevent time distribution is power-law decaying for any kind of input distributions that remain normalizable in the infinite list limit, with exponents tunable between 1 and 2. The model satisfies a scaling law between the exponents of interevent time distribution (β) and autocorrelation function (α): α + β = 2. This law is general for renewal processes with power-law decaying interevent time distribution. We conclude that slowly decaying autocorrelation function indicates long-range dependence only if the scaling law is violated. (paper)

  5. Fuzzy Inference System Approach for Locating Series, Shunt, and Simultaneous Series-Shunt Faults in Double Circuit Transmission Lines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swetapadma, Aleena; Yadav, Anamika

    2015-01-01

    Many schemes are reported for shunt fault location estimation, but fault location estimation of series or open conductor faults has not been dealt with so far. The existing numerical relays only detect the open conductor (series) fault and give the indication of the faulty phase(s), but they are unable to locate the series fault. The repair crew needs to patrol the complete line to find the location of series fault. In this paper fuzzy based fault detection/classification and location schemes in time domain are proposed for both series faults, shunt faults, and simultaneous series and shunt faults. The fault simulation studies and fault location algorithm have been developed using Matlab/Simulink. Synchronized phasors of voltage and current signals of both the ends of the line have been used as input to the proposed fuzzy based fault location scheme. Percentage of error in location of series fault is within 1% and shunt fault is 5% for all the tested fault cases. Validation of percentage of error in location estimation is done using Chi square test with both 1% and 5% level of significance.

  6. `Indoor` series vending machines; `Indoor` series jido hanbaiki

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gensui, T.; Kida, A. [Fuji Electric Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Okumura, H. [Fuji Denki Reiki Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    1996-07-10

    This paper introduces three series of vending machines that were designed to match the interior of an office building. The three series are vending machines for cups, paper packs, cans, and tobacco. Among the three series, `Interior` series has a symmetric design that was coated in a grain pattern. The inside of the `Interior` series is coated by laser satin to ensure a sense of superior quality and a refined style. The push-button used for product selection is hot-stamped on the plastic surface to ensure the hair-line luster. `Interior Phase II` series has a bay window design with a sense of superior quality and lightness. The inside of the `Interior Phase II` series is coated by laser satin. `Interior 21` series is integrated with the wall except the sales operation panel. The upper and lower dress panels can be detached and attached. The door lock is a wire-type structure with high operativity. The operation block is coated by titanium color. The dimensions of three series are standardized. 6 figs., 1 tab.

  7. From Fourier Series to Rapidly Convergent Series for Zeta(3)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheufens, Ernst E

    2011-01-01

    The article presents a mathematical study which investigates the exact values of the Riemann zeta (ζ) function. It states that exact values can be determined from Fourier series for periodic versions of even power functions. It notes that using power series for logarithmic functions on this such ......The article presents a mathematical study which investigates the exact values of the Riemann zeta (ζ) function. It states that exact values can be determined from Fourier series for periodic versions of even power functions. It notes that using power series for logarithmic functions...

  8. High school teacher enhancement in the sciences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohamed, A. [Jackson State Univ., MS (United States). School of Science and Technology; Shepard, R.L. [Science and Engineering Alliance, Inc., Washington, DC (United States)

    1997-03-01

    As part of an effort to improve the teaching of science in a four-State region (Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas), the Science and Engineering Alliance (SEA) initiated a series of teacher enhancement workshops in science. The workshops focus on teaching problem solving through experience gained in laboratory, field work, classroom discussions and interactions/debates, critical analysis of the literature, obtaining a greater appreciation of the application of mathematics in science, and interactions with experts in various fields of science.

  9. Effects of teacher training

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wahlgren, Bjarne; Larsen, Lea Lund

    2010-01-01

    The article gives a short overview over existing knowledge concerning the effect of teacher training in relation to adult learning. It presents a research design for measuring the effect of teacher traning.......The article gives a short overview over existing knowledge concerning the effect of teacher training in relation to adult learning. It presents a research design for measuring the effect of teacher traning....

  10. Teacher Research Experience Programs = Increase in Student Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubner, J.

    2010-12-01

    Columbia University's Summer Research Program for Science Teachers (SRP), founded in 1990, is one of the largest, best known university-based professional development programs for science teachers in the U.S. The program’s basic premise is simple: teachers cannot effectively teach science if they have not experienced it firsthand. For eight weeks in each of two consecutive summers, teachers participate as a member of a research team, led by a member of Columbia University’s research faculty. In addition to the laboratory experience, all teachers meet as a group one day each week during the summer for a series of pedagogical activities. A unique quality of the Summer Research Program is its focus on objective assessment of its impact on attitudes and instructional practices of participating teachers, on the performance of these teachers in their mentors’ laboratories, and most importantly, on the impact of their participation in the program on student interest and performance in science. SRP uses pass rate on the New York State Regents standardized science examinations as an objective measure of student achievement. SRP's data is the first scientific evidence of a connection between a research experience for teachers program and gains in student achievement. As a result of the research, findings were published in Science Magazine. The author will present an overview of Columbia's teacher research program and the results of the published program evaluation.

  11. Vertical Integration: Teachers' Knowledge and Teachers' Voice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrie, L.

    1995-01-01

    Traces the theoretical basis for vertical integration in early school years. Contrasts transmission-based pedagogy with a higher level of teacher control, and acquirer-based pedagogy with a higher level of student control. Suggests that early childhood pedagogy will be maintained when teachers are able to articulate their pedagogical knowledge and…

  12. FALSE DETERMINATIONS OF CHAOS IN SHORT NOISY TIME SERIES. (R828745)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A method (NEMG) proposed in 1992 for diagnosing chaos in noisy time series with 50 or fewer observations entails fitting the time series with an empirical function which predicts an observation in the series from previous observations, and then estimating the rate of divergenc...

  13. On Reconceptualizing Teacher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Robert; Muchisky, Dennis

    2003-01-01

    Raises questions about what has been referred to as a "reconceptualization of teacher education," which advocates that teacher education in TESOL focuses more on the act of teaching and learning to teach. Argues that this perspective threatens to deemphasize what language teachers need to know about language and language acquisition. (Author/VWL)

  14. Globalization and Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flinders, David J.

    2009-01-01

    Educational researchers and teacher educators are often concerned with immediate and practical questions. How can health teachers help youth avoid substance abuse? Should a high school biology teacher show Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth," or is that film too political for a science classroom? What sports should be included in a physical…

  15. Assessment of Teacher Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gokce, Feyyat

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study is to contribute to the achievement of educational goals by determining teachers' levels of motivation. With this aim in mind, the opinions of 386 teachers employed in primary schools in Tokat province were sought. According to the findings of the study, the teachers stated that their needs were not fulfilled according to…

  16. Contract Teachers in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyal, Sangeeta; Pandey, Priyanka

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we use non-experimental data from government schools in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, two of the largest Indian states, to present average school outcomes by contract status of teachers. We find that contract teachers are associated with higher effort than civil service teachers with permanent tenures, before as well as after…

  17. A program for teachers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez Miranda, A.

    1994-01-01

    The program developed by the Spanish Atomic Forum aimed at high school teachers' training to nuclear science information in schools and universities, is presented. The rationale of its development and its implementation is discussed: among various observations, it was found out that seminars where teachers from science and teachers from other disciplines were mixed, are of a better efficiency towards nuclear energy acceptance

  18. Why Teachers Fail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bass, Ronald E.

    1973-01-01

    Peer and subordinate criticism directed at the beginning industrial arts teacher ultimately leads to teacher failure. Skinner's theory of operant conditioning is used as an analogy to explain how the beginning teacher is conditioned to the norms of teaching, resulting in the loss of his enthusiam and idealism. (DS)

  19. Burnout Syndrome of Teachers

    OpenAIRE

    Semrádová, Michaela

    2013-01-01

    The bachelor's thesis covers burnout syndrome of teachers. Defines burnout syndrome, describes its causes and symptoms. Describes teaching as helping profession and focousing on stressful situations at school. In the last chapter described different prevention strategies burnout syndrome. Key words: burnout syndrome, teaching, teacher, helping professions, beginning teacher, stress

  20. Assessment Mathematics Teacher's Competencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alnoor, A. G.; Yuanxiang, Guo; Abudhuim, F. S.

    2007-01-01

    This paper aimed to identifying the professional efficiencies for the intermediate schools mathematics teachers and tries to know at what level the math teachers experience those competencies. The researcher used a descriptive research approach, the study data collected from specialist educators and teacher's experts and previous studies to…

  1. Teachers as designers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voogt, Joke; McKenney, Susan; Kali, Yael; Sagy, Ornit

    2014-01-01

    Design of (technology-enhanced) learning activities and materials is one fruitful process through which teachers learn and become professionals. To facilitate this process, research is needed to understand how teachers learn through design, how this process may be supported, and how teacher

  2. Teacher Educator Technology Competencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulger, Teresa S.; Graziano, Kevin J.; Schmidt-Crawford, Denise A.; Slykhuis, David A.

    2017-01-01

    The U.S. National Educational Technology Plan recommends the need to have a common set of technology competencies specifically for teacher educators who prepare teacher candidates to teach with technology (U.S. Department of Education, Office of Educational Technology, 2017). This study facilitated the co-creation of the Teacher Educator…

  3. Teachers and Educational Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Paris (France). International Inst. for Educational Planning.

    This study sets forth the results of an inquiry made at the request of UNESCO in the 30 countries in all parts of the world by four world teachers' organizations. Three organizations represent teachers in state systems and the fourth represents Catholic education. These teacher organizations chose 35 national organizations in countries spread over…

  4. Talks to Teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Esther B.; And Others

    In August, 1967, the Bedford program for School and Community Participation in Sex and Family Living Education received a Title III grant to create a Center for the Study of Sex and Family Living Education. The center organized an inservice teacher education program for Bedford teachers grade one through twelve. The inservice teacher education…

  5. Pupil Evaluation of Teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggs, John; Chopra, Pran

    1979-01-01

    This investigation is concerned with (a) constructing a pupil evaluation of teachers (PET) scale, for use in grades 7-11, incorporating certain areas of teaching behavior, and affective pupil responses to teachers; and (b) using the scale as a source of feedback to both regular and student teachers. (Author)

  6. The Teacher Talent Trove

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Terrence

    2003-01-01

    Teacher leadership represents a powerful approach to assert the true professionalism that educators have long been seeking. Opportunities abound for teachers to contribute to school reform by demonstrating their leadership skills. This article considers strategies to rebuild the portrait of teachers and thereby encourage strong professional…

  7. Supporting Music Teacher Mentors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaffini, Erin Dineen

    2015-01-01

    While much discussion and research is focused on the importance of music teacher mentors for preservice teachers and novice in-service music educators, little discussion has been devoted to the topic of how we, as members of the music education profession, can support the role of music teacher mentors. This article explores some of the benefits…

  8. Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marczak, Martyna; Proietti, Tommaso

    investigate via Monte Carlo simulations how this approach performs for detecting additive outliers and level shifts in the analysis of nonstationary seasonal time series. The reference model is the basic structural model, featuring a local linear trend, possibly integrated of order two, stochastic seasonality......Structural change affects the estimation of economic signals, like the underlying growth rate or the seasonally adjusted series. An important issue, which has attracted a great deal of attention also in the seasonal adjustment literature, is its detection by an expert procedure. The general......–to–specific approach to the detection of structural change, currently implemented in Autometrics via indicator saturation, has proven to be both practical and effective in the context of stationary dynamic regression models and unit–root autoregressions. By focusing on impulse– and step–indicator saturation, we...

  9. Who chooses to become a teacher and why?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reimer, David; Dorf, Hans

    -secondary pupils. The nature of the data collected enables us to characterize teacher education students in contrast to a baseline reference group eligible to apply for teacher education and to compare these differences across countries (difference-in-differences estimation). This analytical strategy allows us......We analyze in this article to what extent beginning teacher education students at the primary school level differ with respect to previous educational pathways, socio-demographic characteristics, academic self-concepts and occupational motivations. In order to overcome methodological problems...... of most previous empirical studies on teacher recruitment we draw on data from a recent comparative study on teacher recruitment based on two different samples: In both Denmark and Finland we surveyed a representative group of first year teacher education students as well as last year upper...

  10. 75 FR 15321 - Airworthiness Directives; Rolls-Royce plc RB211-Trent 800 Series Turbofan Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-29

    ... Directives; Rolls-Royce plc RB211-Trent 800 Series Turbofan Engines AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration... Based on the service information, we estimate that this AD will affect about 138 RB211 Trent 800 series... will cost about $2,000 per engine. Based on these figures, we estimate the cost of the AD on U.S...

  11. Advances in Antithetic Time Series Analysis : Separating Fact from Artifact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Ridley

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of biased time series mathematical model parameter estimates is well known to be insurmountable. When used to predict future values by extrapolation, even a de minimis bias will eventually grow into a large bias, with misleading results. This paper elucidates how combining antithetic time series' solves this baffling problem of bias in the fitted and forecast values by dynamic bias cancellation. Instead of growing to infinity, the average error can converge to a constant. (original abstract

  12. Robust Forecasting of Non-Stationary Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Croux, C.; Fried, R.; Gijbels, I.; Mahieu, K.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a robust forecasting method for non-stationary time series. The time series is modelled using non-parametric heteroscedastic regression, and fitted by a localized MM-estimator, combining high robustness and large efficiency. The proposed method is shown to produce reliable forecasts in the presence of outliers, non-linearity, and heteroscedasticity. In the absence of outliers, the forecasts are only slightly less precise than those based on a localized Least Squares estima...

  13. Scaling properties of Polish rain series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Licznar, P.

    2009-04-01

    Scaling properties as well as multifractal nature of precipitation time series have not been studied for local Polish conditions until recently due to lack of long series of high-resolution data. The first Polish study of precipitation time series scaling phenomena was made on the base of pluviograph data from the Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences meteorological station located at the south-western part of the country. The 38 annual rainfall records from years 1962-2004 were converted into digital format and transformed into a standard format of 5-minute time series. The scaling properties and multifractal character of this material were studied by means of several different techniques: power spectral density analysis, functional box-counting, probability distribution/multiple scaling and trace moment methods. The result proved the general scaling character of time series at the range of time scales ranging form 5 minutes up to at least 24 hours. At the same time some characteristic breaks at scaling behavior were recognized. It is believed that the breaks were artificial and arising from the pluviograph rain gauge measuring precision limitations. Especially strong limitations at the precision of low-intensity precipitations recording by pluviograph rain gauge were found to be the main reason for artificial break at energy spectra, as was reported by other authors before. The analysis of co-dimension and moments scaling functions showed the signs of the first-order multifractal phase transition. Such behavior is typical for dressed multifractal processes that are observed by spatial or temporal averaging on scales larger than the inner-scale of those processes. The fractal dimension of rainfall process support derived from codimension and moments scaling functions geometry analysis was found to be 0.45. The same fractal dimension estimated by means of the functional box-counting method was equal to 0.58. At the final part of the study

  14. Fundamentals of Welding. Teacher Edition [and] Student Edition [and] Student Workbook. Second Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortney, Clarence; Gregory, Mike; New, Larry

    Teacher and student editions and a student workbook for fundamentals of welding comprise the first of six in a series of competency-based instructional materials for welding programs. Introductory pages in the teacher edition are training and competency profile, instructional/task analysis, basic skills icons and classifications, basic skills…

  15. Towards an "International Forum for Teacher Educator Development": An Agenda for Research and Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelchtermans, Geert; Smith, Kari; Vanderlinde, Ruben

    2018-01-01

    The outcomes of an international collaborative project are presented, involving experienced teacher educators and researchers from eight different countries, who engaged in a series of structured discussions on the professional development of teacher educators. We start with an overview of the needs in practice and policy, as well as the research…

  16. Evaluation of the Program Effectiveness of Research Competence Development in Prospective Elementary School Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Natalya N.; Kolumbayeva, Sholpan Zh.; Karsybayeva, Raissa K.; Nabuova, Roza A.; Kurmanbekova, Manshuk B.; Syzdykbayeva, Aigul Dzh.

    2016-01-01

    To develop research competence in prospective teachers, a system of methods for diagnostics and formation of this competence in prospective elementary school teachers in the training process is designed. To diagnose the research competence, a series of techniques were used that allow subtle evaluation of each competence research component:…

  17. Effective Professional Development for Physical Education Teachers: The Role of Informal, Collaborative Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, Kathleen M.; Yelling, Martin

    2007-01-01

    This paper reports data from the third phase of a 2-year investigation into continuing professional development (CPD) for physical education teachers in England. The purpose of this phase was to examine the ways in which 10 case study teachers engaged in professional learning over the course of 1 academic year. Data were collected from a series of…

  18. Student and Teacher Success: The Impact of Computers in Primary Grades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drexler, Nancy Gadzuk; And Others

    This paper discusses the impact of computers on student learning as reported by teachers participating in a study of a computer-based language arts instructional program for the early elementary grades--the Apple Learning Series: Early Language (ALS-EL). Although they found the program difficult to evaluate, some teachers stated that the ALS-EL…

  19. Small Victories: Reflections on Teaching "Harry Potter" to Resistant Prospective Teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bercaw, Lynne A.

    2003-01-01

    Describes the author's interactions with prospective teachers' resistances to books in the "Harry Potter" series and how she dealt with these situations. Recognizes that her role as a teacher educator includes honoring her students' beliefs, upholding the integrity of the academic discipline of children's literature, and adhering to the…

  20. Teacher Perspectives on Technology Integration Professional Development: Formal, Informal, and Independent Learning Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Monty; Dexter, Sara

    2018-01-01

    This mixed-methods study examined the technology integration learning activities of four teachers throughout one year using weekly quantitative surveys and a series of three qualitative individual interviews. Through the teachers' own voices an illustration of their learning processes is presented, and the gap between what is supported by their…