Biweekly list of papers on radiation chemistry and photochemistry. Annual cumulation with keyword and author indexes. Volume 16. 1983

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carmichael, I.C.; Helman, W.P.; Hug, G.L.; Ross, A.B.

1983-01-01

The Biweekly List of Papers on Radiation Chemistry and Photochemistry is a current-awareness service published by the Radiation Chemistry Data Center (RCDC), with special emphasis on the kinetics and other properties of transient ions, radicals, and excited species. Papers are included on the radiation chemistry and photochemistry of organic and inorganic systems, biological molecules and polymers, with references to ESR and luminescence studies. Complete coverage is attempted only for those studies which are initiated by light or ionizing radiation, and which provide quantitative physical chemical data such as quantum yields, specific rates, G values, etc. No attempt is made to cover topics such as mechanistic and preparative photochemistry, photosynthesis, photography, and irradiation of metals. The references listed herein are obtained from scanning about 60 current journals as well as Chemical Abstracts, INIS Atomindex and several other publications listing current references. The reference lists, which are issued biweekly, are cumulated annually with the addition of keyword and author indexes. Indexed cumulations were published semiannually for Vol. 4-6 (1971-73) and are published annually for Vol. 7+ (1974+); back copies are available from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

About the cumulants of periodic signals

Science.gov (United States)

Barrau, Axel; El Badaoui, Mohammed

2018-01-01

This note studies cumulants of time series. These functions originating from the probability theory being commonly used as features of deterministic signals, their classical properties are examined in this modified framework. We show additivity of cumulants, ensured in the case of independent random variables, requires here a different hypothesis. Practical applications are proposed, in particular an analysis of the failure of the JADE algorithm to separate some specific periodic signals.

The Composite Strain Index (COSI) and Cumulative Strain Index (CUSI): methodologies for quantifying biomechanical stressors for complex tasks and job rotation using the Revised Strain Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Garg, Arun; Moore, J Steven; Kapellusch, Jay M

2017-08-01

The Composite Strain Index (COSI) quantifies biomechanical stressors for complex tasks consisting of exertions at different force levels and/or with different exertion times. The Cumulative Strain Index (CUSI) further integrates biomechanical stressors from different tasks to quantify exposure for the entire work shift. The paper provides methodologies to compute COSI and CUSI along with examples. Complex task simulation produced 169,214 distinct tasks. Use of average, time-weighted average (TWA) and peak force and COSI classified 66.9, 28.2, 100 and 38.9% of tasks as hazardous, respectively. For job rotation the simulation produced 10,920 distinct jobs. TWA COSI, peak task COSI and CUSI classified 36.5, 78.1 and 66.6% jobs as hazardous, respectively. The results suggest that the TWA approach systematically underestimates the biomechanical stressors and peak approach overestimates biomechanical stressors, both at the task and job level. It is believed that the COSI and CUSI partially address these underestimations and overestimations of biomechanical stressors. Practitioner Summary: COSI quantifies exposure when applied hand force and/or duration of that force changes during a task cycle. CUSI integrates physical exposures from job rotation. These should be valuable tools for designing and analysing tasks and job rotation to determine risk of musculoskeletal injuries.

Gender disparities among the association between cumulative family-level stress & adolescent weight status.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernandez, Daphne C; Pressler, Emily

2015-04-01

To investigate precursors to gender-related obesity disparities by examining multiple family-level stress indices. Analyses was based on adolescents born between 1975 and 1991 to women from the 1979 National Longitudinal Study of Youth data set (N=4762). Three types of family-level stressors were captured from birth to age 15: family disruption and conflict, financial strain, and maternal risky health behaviors, along with a total cumulative risk index. Body mass index was constructed on reference criteria for children outlined by the Centers for Disease Control. Multivariate logistic regressions were conducted for the three types of family stressors and for the total cumulative index. The accumulation of family disruption and conflict and financial stress was positively related to female adolescents being overweight/obese. Childhood exposure to maternal risky health behaviors was positively associated with higher weight status for male adolescents. Total cumulative stress was related to overweight/obesity for females, but not males. Different family-level stress indices are associated with the weight status of female and male adolescents. Combining types of family-level stress into one cumulative index appears to mask these differences. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cumulative risk, cumulative outcome: a 20-year longitudinal study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leslie Atkinson

Full Text Available Cumulative risk (CR models provide some of the most robust findings in the developmental literature, predicting numerous and varied outcomes. Typically, however, these outcomes are predicted one at a time, across different samples, using concurrent designs, longitudinal designs of short duration, or retrospective designs. We predicted that a single CR index, applied within a single sample, would prospectively predict diverse outcomes, i.e., depression, intelligence, school dropout, arrest, smoking, and physical disease from childhood to adulthood. Further, we predicted that number of risk factors would predict number of adverse outcomes (cumulative outcome; CO. We also predicted that early CR (assessed at age 5/6 explains variance in CO above and beyond that explained by subsequent risk (assessed at ages 12/13 and 19/20. The sample consisted of 284 individuals, 48% of whom were diagnosed with a speech/language disorder. Cumulative risk, assessed at 5/6-, 12/13-, and 19/20-years-old, predicted aforementioned outcomes at age 25/26 in every instance. Furthermore, number of risk factors was positively associated with number of negative outcomes. Finally, early risk accounted for variance beyond that explained by later risk in the prediction of CO. We discuss these findings in terms of five criteria posed by these data, positing a "mediated net of adversity" model, suggesting that CR may increase some central integrative factor, simultaneously augmenting risk across cognitive, quality of life, psychiatric and physical health outcomes.

Validity of the Medication-based Disease Burden Index compared with the Charlson Comorbidity Index and the Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for geriatrics: a cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Beloosesky, Yichayaou; Weiss, Avraham; Mansur, Nariman

2011-12-01

Co-morbidity is common in older people. A co-morbidity index reduces coexisting illnesses and their severity to a single numerical score, allowing comparison with scores from other patients. Recently, the Medication-Based Disease Burden Index (MDBI) was developed. The aim of the study was to assess the MDBI's validity in hospitalized elderly patients. Clinical and demographic data and data on patients' medications on admission were obtained prospectively. Retrospectively, we applied the MDBI to the patients' medication regimens, determining their co-morbidity using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for Geriatrics (CIRS-G). The MDBI's criterion validity was assessed against the Charlson and CIRS-G indices. Convergent and discriminant validities were also assessed. The MDBI's predictive validity was assessed by its ability to predict 3-month post-discharge readmissions or mortality compared with the Charlson and CIRS-G indices. MDBI scores were correlated with the Charlson and CIRS-G indices' scores (r = 0.44 and r = 0.37, respectively [p indices had good predictive ability for mortality (OR 1.50 [95% CI 1.22, 1.84; p failed to differentiate between cognitive and functional patient groups. The MDBI should be investigated in larger studies to determine its validity in settings where medication data rather than diagnostic data are more readily available. In clinical practice with elderly patients, we recommend employing co-morbidity indices that are based on medical records, such as the Charlson Comorbidity Index and CIRS-G.

Cumulative risk assessment for plasticizer-contaminated food using the hazard index approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, J.W.; Yan, B.R.; Chang, M.H.; Tseng, S.H.; Kao, Y.M.; Chen, J.C.; Lee, C.C.

2014-01-01

Phthalates strongly and adversely affect reproduction, development and liver function. We did a cumulative risk assessment for simultaneous exposure to nine phthalates using the hazard index (HI) and the levels of nine phthalates in 1200 foodstuff samples. DEHP (di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate) present the highest level (mean: 0.443 mg/kg) in 1200 samples, and the highest average daily dose (ADD) was found in DEHP, ΣDBP (i + n) (the sum of dibutyl phthalate [DBP] isomers [DnBP + DiBP]) posed the highest risk potential of all the phthalates. In seven phthalates, the 95th percentiles of the ADDs for ΣDBP (i + n) in 0–6-yr-old children accounted for 91% (79–107%) of the tolerable daily intake, and the 95th percentiles of the HIs for the anti-androgenic effects of five phthalates in 0–3-yr-old children and 4–6-yr-old girls were >1. We conclude that the health of younger Taiwanese may be adversely affected by overexposure of phthalate-contaminated foods. - Graphical abstract: In seven phthalates, the 95th percentile of the average daily dose (ADD) for ΣDBP (i + n) (the sum of dibutyl phthalate [DBP] isomers [DnBP + DiBP]) in 0–3-yr-old male (0–3 M) and female (0–3 F) children accounted for 97% and 84% of TDIs, respectively. For 4–6-yr-old and 7–12-yr-old males and 7–12-yr-old females, ADDs for ΣDBP (i + n) accounted for 79%, 72%, and 65% of TDIs, respectively. - Highlights: • A cumulative risk assessment of PAEs was used in a severe plasticizer-contaminated food episode. • ΣDBP (i + n) posed the highest risk potential of all the dietary phthalates. • Females 4–6 yr old had the highest risk for anti-androgenic effects. • Beverages, milk and dairy products were the major contributors to average daily dose of phthalate esters. - The health of young Taiwanese may be adversely affected by overexposure of plasticizer-contaminated food

Cumulative organic anion transporter-mediated drug-drug interaction potential of multiple components in salvia miltiorrhiza (danshen) preparations.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Li; Venitz, Jürgen; Sweet, Douglas H

2014-12-01

To evaluate organic anion transporter-mediated drug-drug interaction (DDI) potential for individual active components of Danshen (Salvia miltiorrhiza) vs. combinations using in vitro and in silico approaches. Inhibition profiles for single Danshen components and combinations were generated in stably-expressing human (h)OAT1 and hOAT3 cells. Plasma concentration-time profiles for compounds were estimated from in vivo human data using an i.v. two-compartment model (with first-order elimination). The cumulative DDI index was proposed as an indicator of DDI potential for combination products. This index was used to evaluate the DDI potential for Danshen injectables from 16 different manufacturers and 14 different lots from a single manufacturer. The cumulative DDI index predicted in vivo inhibition potentials, 82% (hOAT1) and 74% (hOAT3), comparable with those observed in vitro, 72 ± 7% (hOAT1) and 81 ± 10% (hOAT3), for Danshen component combinations. Using simulated unbound Cmax values, a wide range in cumulative DDI index between manufacturers, and between lots, was predicted. Many products exhibited a cumulative DDI index > 1 (50% inhibition). Danshen injectables will likely exhibit strong potential to inhibit hOAT1 and hOAT3 function in vivo. The proposed cumulative DDI index might improve prediction of DDI potential of herbal medicines or pharmaceutical preparations containing multiple components.

Time series analysis of S&P 500 index: A horizontal visibility graph approach

Science.gov (United States)

Vamvakaris, Michail D.; Pantelous, Athanasios A.; Zuev, Konstantin M.

2018-05-01

The behavior of stock prices has been thoroughly studied throughout the last century, and contradictory results have been reported in the corresponding literature. In this paper, a network theoretical approach is provided to investigate how crises affected the behavior of US stock prices. We analyze high frequency data from S&P500 via the Horizontal Visibility Graph method, and find that all major crises that took place worldwide in the last twenty years, affected significantly the behavior of the price-index. Nevertheless, we observe that each of those crises impacted the index in a different way and magnitude. Interestingly, our results suggest that the predictability of the price-index series increases during the periods of crises.

Forecasting Jakarta composite index (IHSG) based on chen fuzzy time series and firefly clustering algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Ningrum, R. W.; Surarso, B.; Farikhin; Safarudin, Y. M.

2018-03-01

This paper proposes the combination of Firefly Algorithm (FA) and Chen Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting. Most of the existing fuzzy forecasting methods based on fuzzy time series use the static length of intervals. Therefore, we apply an artificial intelligence, i.e., Firefly Algorithm (FA) to set non-stationary length of intervals for each cluster on Chen Method. The method is evaluated by applying on the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) and compare with classical Chen Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting. Its performance verified through simulation using Matlab.

The partial duration series method in regional index-flood modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

1997-01-01

A regional index-flood method based on the partial duration series model is introduced. The model comprises the assumptions of a Poisson-distributed number of threshold exceedances and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes. The regional T-year event estimator is based on a regional...... estimator is superior to the at-site estimator even in extremely heterogenous regions, the performance of the regional estimator being relatively better in regions with a negative shape parameter. When the record length increases, the relative performance of the regional estimator decreases, but it is still...

Single-Index Additive Vector Autoregressive Time Series Models

KAUST Repository

LI, YEHUA

2009-09-01

We study a new class of nonlinear autoregressive models for vector time series, where the current vector depends on single-indexes defined on the past lags and the effects of different lags have an additive form. A sufficient condition is provided for stationarity of such models. We also study estimation of the proposed model using P-splines, hypothesis testing, asymptotics, selection of the order of the autoregression and of the smoothing parameters and nonlinear forecasting. We perform simulation experiments to evaluate our model in various settings. We illustrate our methodology on a climate data set and show that our model provides more accurate yearly forecasts of the El Niño phenomenon, the unusual warming of water in the Pacific Ocean. © 2009 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.

Childhood Cumulative Risk and Later Allostatic Load

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Doan, Stacey N; Dich, Nadya; Evans, Gary W

2014-01-01

State, followed for 8 years (between the ages 9 and 17). Poverty- related stress was computed using the cumulative risk approach, assessing stressors across 9 domains, including environmental, psychosocial, and demographic factors. Allostatic load captured a range of physiological responses, including......Objective: The present study investigated the long-term impact of exposure to poverty-related stressors during childhood on allostatic load, an index of physiological dysregulation, and the potential mediating role of substance use. Method: Participants (n = 162) were rural children from New York...... cardiovascular, hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis, sympathetic adrenal medullary system, and metabolic activity. Smoking and alcohol/drug use were tested as mediators of the hypothesized childhood risk-adolescent allostatic load relationship. Results: Cumulative risk exposure at age 9 predicted increases...

Cumulative Prospect Theory, Option Returns, and the Variance Premium

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baele, Lieven; Driessen, Joost; Ebert, Sebastian; Londono Yarce, J.M.; Spalt, Oliver

The variance premium and the pricing of out-of-the-money (OTM) equity index options are major challenges to standard asset pricing models. We develop a tractable equilibrium model with Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) preferences that can overcome both challenges. The key insight is that the

Semiparametric inference on the fractal index of Gaussian and conditionally Gaussian time series data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bennedsen, Mikkel

Using theory on (conditionally) Gaussian processes with stationary increments developed in Barndorff-Nielsen et al. (2009, 2011), this paper presents a general semiparametric approach to conducting inference on the fractal index, α, of a time series. Our setup encompasses a large class of Gaussian...

Nonlinear analysis of magnetospheric data Part I. Geometric characteristics of the AE index time series and comparison with nonlinear surrogate data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. P. Pavlos

1999-01-01

Full Text Available A long AE index time series is used as a crucial magnetospheric quantity in order to study the underlying dynainics. For this purpose we utilize methods of nonlinear and chaotic analysis of time series. Two basic components of this analysis are the reconstruction of the experimental tiine series state space trajectory of the underlying process and the statistical testing of an null hypothesis. The null hypothesis against which the experimental time series are tested is that the observed AE index signal is generated by a linear stochastic signal possibly perturbed by a static nonlinear distortion. As dis ' ' ating statistics we use geometrical characteristics of the reconstructed state space (Part I, which is the work of this paper and dynamical characteristics (Part II, which is the work a separate paper, and "nonlinear" surrogate data, generated by two different techniques which can mimic the original (AE index signal. lie null hypothesis is tested for geometrical characteristics which are the dimension of the reconstructed trajectory and some new geometrical parameters introduced in this work for the efficient discrimination between the nonlinear stochastic surrogate data and the AE index. Finally, the estimated geometric characteristics of the magnetospheric AE index present new evidence about the nonlinear and low dimensional character of the underlying magnetospheric dynamics for the AE index.

Cumulative Human Impacts on Coral Reefs: Assessing Risk and Management Implications for Brazilian Coral Reefs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael A. Magris

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Effective management of coral reefs requires strategies tailored to cope with cumulative disturbances from human activities. In Brazil, where coral reefs are a priority for conservation, intensifying threats from local and global stressors are of paramount concern to management agencies. Using a cumulative impact assessment approach, our goal was to inform management actions for coral reefs in Brazil by assessing their exposure to multiple stressors (fishing, land-based activities, coastal development, mining, aquaculture, shipping, and global warming. We calculated an index of the risk to cumulative impacts: (i assuming uniform sensitivity of coral reefs to stressors; and (ii using impact weights to reflect varying tolerance levels of coral reefs to each stressor. We also predicted the index in both the presence and absence of global warming. We found that 16% and 37% of coral reefs had high to very high risk of cumulative impacts, without and with information on sensitivity respectively, and 42% of reefs had low risk to cumulative impacts from both local and global stressors. Our outputs are the first comprehensive spatial dataset of cumulative impact on coral reefs in Brazil, and show that areas requiring attention mostly corresponded to those closer to population centres. We demonstrate how the relationships between risks from local and global stressors can be used to derive strategic management actions.

KWOC [Key-Word-Out-of-Context] Index of US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide Series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jennings, S.D.

1990-04-01

To meet the objectives of the program funded by the Department of Energy (DOE)-Nuclear Energy (NE) Technology Support Programs, the Performance Assurance Project Office (PAPO) administers a Performance Assurance Information Program that collects, compiles, and distributes program-related information, reports, and publications for the benefit of the DOE-NE program participants. THE ''KWOC Index of US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide Series'' is prepared as an aid in searching for specific topics in the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Regulatory Guide Series

Complex dynamic behaviors of oriented percolation-based financial time series and Hang Seng index

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We develop a financial time series model by two-dimensional oriented percolation system. • We investigate the statistical behaviors of returns for HSI and the financial model by chaos-exploring methods. • We forecast the phase point of reconstructed phase space by RBF neural network. -- Abstract: We develop a financial price model by the two-dimensional oriented (directed) percolation system. The oriented percolation model is a directed variant of ordinary (isotropic) percolation, and it is applied to describe the fluctuations of stock prices. In this work, we assume that the price fluctuations result from the participants’ investment attitudes toward the market, and we investigate the information spreading among the traders and the corresponding effect on the price fluctuations. We study the complex dynamic behaviors of return time series of the model by using the multiaspect chaos-exploring methods. And we also explore the corresponding behaviors of the actual market index (Hang Seng Index) for comparison. Further, we introduce the radial basic function (RBF) neural network to train and forecast the phase point of reconstructed phase space

Cumulative increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus with increasing triglyceride glucose index in normal-weight people: The Rural Chinese Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ming; Wang, Bingyuan; Liu, Yu; Sun, Xizhuo; Luo, Xinping; Wang, Chongjian; Li, Linlin; Zhang, Lu; Ren, Yongcheng; Zhao, Yang; Zhou, Junmei; Han, Chengyi; Zhao, Jingzhi; Hu, Dongsheng

2017-03-01

Risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increased in metabolically obese but normal-weight people. However, we have limited knowledge of how to prevent T2DM in normal-weight people. We aimed to evaluate the association between triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and incident T2DM among normal-weight people in rural China. We included data from 5706 people with normal body mass index (BMI) (18.5-23.9 kg/m 2 ) without baseline T2DM in a rural Chinese cohort followed for a median of 6.0 years. A Cox proportional-hazard model was used to assess the risk of incident T2DM by quartiles of TyG index and difference in TyG index between follow-up and baseline (TyG-D), estimating hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A generalized additive plot was used to show the nonparametric smoothed exposure-response association between risk of T2DM and TyG index as a continuous variable. TyG was calculated as ln [fasting triglyceride level (mg/dl) × fasting plasma glucose level (mg/dl)/2]. Risk of incident T2DM was increased with quartiles 2, 3 and 4 versus quartile 1 of TyG index (adjusted HR [aHR] 2.48 [95% CI 1.20-5.11], 3.77 [1.83-7.79], and 5.30 [2.21-12.71], P trend  index). Risk of incident T2DM was increased with quartile 4 versus quartile 1 of TyG-D (aHR 3.91 [2.22-6.87]). The results were consistent when analyses were restricted to participants without baseline metabolic syndrome and impaired fasting glucose level. The generalized additive plot showed cumulative increased risk of T2DM with increasing TyG index. Risk of incident T2DM is increased with increasing TyG index among rural Chinese people, so the index might be an important indicator for identifying people at high risk of T2DM.

An Integrated Cumulative Transformation and Feature Fusion Approach for Bearing Degradation Prognostics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lixiang Duan

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Aimed at degradation prognostics of a rolling bearing, this paper proposed a novel cumulative transformation algorithm for data processing and a feature fusion technique for bearing degradation assessment. First, a cumulative transformation is presented to map the original features extracted from a vibration signal to their respective cumulative forms. The technique not only makes the extracted features show a monotonic trend but also reduces the fluctuation; such properties are more propitious to reflect the bearing degradation trend. Then, a new degradation index system is constructed, which fuses multidimensional cumulative features by kernel principal component analysis (KPCA. Finally, an extreme learning machine model based on phase space reconstruction is proposed to predict the degradation trend. The model performance is experimentally validated with a whole-life experiment of a rolling bearing. The results prove that the proposed method reflects the bearing degradation process clearly and achieves a good balance between model accuracy and complexity.

Assessing environmental impacts on stream water quality: the use of cumulative flux and cumulative flux difference approaches to deforestation of the Hafren Forest, mid-Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Neal

2002-01-01

Full Text Available A method for examining the impacts of disturbance on stream water quality based on paired catchment “controlâ€? and “responseâ€? water quality time series is described in relation to diagrams of cumulative flux and cumulative flux difference. The paper describes the equations used and illustrates the patterns expected for idealised flux changes followed by an application to stream water quality data for a spruce forested catchment, the Hore, subjected to clear fell. The water quality determinands examined are sodium, chloride, nitrate, calcium and acid neutralisation capacity. The anticipated effects of felling are shown in relation to reduction in mist capture and nitrate release with felling as well as to the influence of weathering and cation exchange mechanisms, but in a much clearer way than observed previously using other approaches. Keywords: Plynlimon, stream, Hore, acid neutralisation capacity, calcium, chloride, nitrate, sodium, cumulative flux, flux

Validation of Vegetation Index Time Series from Suomi NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Using Tower Radiation Flux Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Miura, T.; Kato, A.; Wang, J.; Vargas, M.; Lindquist, M.

2015-12-01

Satellite vegetation index (VI) time series data serve as an important means to monitor and characterize seasonal changes of terrestrial vegetation and their interannual variability. It is, therefore, critical to ensure quality of such VI products and one method of validating VI product quality is cross-comparison with in situ flux tower measurements. In this study, we evaluated the quality of VI time series derived from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) spacecraft by cross-comparison with in situ radiation flux measurements at select flux tower sites over North America and Europe. VIIRS is a new polar-orbiting satellite sensor series, slated to replace National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer in the afternoon overpass and to continue the highly-calibrated data streams initiated with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer of National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Earth Observing System. The selected sites covered a wide range of biomes, including croplands, grasslands, evergreen needle forest, woody savanna, and open shrublands. The two VIIRS indices of the Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the atmospherically-corrected, Top-of-Canopy (TOC) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (daily, 375 m spatial resolution) were compared against the TOC NDVI and a two-band version of EVI (EVI2) calculated from tower radiation flux measurements, respectively. VIIRS and Tower VI time series showed comparable seasonal profiles across biomes with statistically significant correlations (> 0.60; p-value 0.95), with mean differences of 2.3 days and 5.0 days for the NDVI and the EVI, respectively. These results indicate that VIIRS VI time series can capture seasonal evolution of vegetated land surface as good as in situ radiometric measurements. Future studies that address biophysical or physiological interpretations

Detecting inter-annual variations in the phenology of evergreen conifers using long-term MODIS vegetation index time series.

OpenAIRE

Ulsig, Laura

2016-01-01

Long-term observations of vegetation phenology can be used to monitor the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides the most efficient means to observe phenological events through time series analysis of vegetation indices such as the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). This study investigates the potential of the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), which has been linked to vegetation light use efficiency, to improve the accuracy of ...

Detecting Inter-Annual Variations in the Phenology of Evergreen Conifers Using Long-Term MODIS Vegetation Index Time Series

OpenAIRE

Ulsig, Laura; Nichol, Caroline J.; Huemmrich, Karl F.; Landis, David R.; Middleton, Elizabeth M.; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Mammarella, Ivan; Levula, Janne; Porcar-Castell, Albert

2017-01-01

Long-term observations of vegetation phenology can be used to monitor the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides the most efficient means to observe phenological events through time series analysis of vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). This study investigates the potential of a Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), which has been linked to vegetation light use efficiency, to improve the accuracy of MO...

The role of group index engineering in series-connected photonic crystal microcavities for high density sensor microarrays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zou, Yi; Zhu, Liang; Chen, Ray T.; Chakravarty, Swapnajit

2014-01-01

We experimentally demonstrate an efficient and robust method for series connection of photonic crystal microcavities that are coupled to photonic crystal waveguides in the slow light transmission regime. We demonstrate that group index taper engineering provides excellent optical impedance matching between the input and output strip waveguides and the photonic crystal waveguide, a nearly flat transmission over the entire guided mode spectrum and clear multi-resonance peaks corresponding to individual microcavities that are connected in series. Series connected photonic crystal microcavities are further multiplexed in parallel using cascaded multimode interference power splitters to generate a high density silicon nanophotonic microarray comprising 64 photonic crystal microcavity sensors, all of which are interrogated simultaneously at the same instant of time

The role of group index engineering in series-connected photonic crystal microcavities for high density sensor microarrays

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zou, Yi, E-mail: yzou@utexas.edu; Zhu, Liang; Chen, Ray T., E-mail: raychen@uts.cc.utexas.edu [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Microelectronics Research Center, University of Texas at Austin, 10100 Burnet Rd., Austin, Texas 78758 (United States); Chakravarty, Swapnajit, E-mail: swapnajit.chakravarty@omegaoptics.com [Omega Optics, Inc., 8500 Shoal Creek Blvd., Austin, Texas 78757 (United States)

2014-04-07

We experimentally demonstrate an efficient and robust method for series connection of photonic crystal microcavities that are coupled to photonic crystal waveguides in the slow light transmission regime. We demonstrate that group index taper engineering provides excellent optical impedance matching between the input and output strip waveguides and the photonic crystal waveguide, a nearly flat transmission over the entire guided mode spectrum and clear multi-resonance peaks corresponding to individual microcavities that are connected in series. Series connected photonic crystal microcavities are further multiplexed in parallel using cascaded multimode interference power splitters to generate a high density silicon nanophotonic microarray comprising 64 photonic crystal microcavity sensors, all of which are interrogated simultaneously at the same instant of time.

The Cumulative Lifting Index (CULI) for the Revised NIOSH Lifting Equation: Quantifying Risk for Workers With Job Rotation.

Science.gov (United States)

Garg, Arun; Kapellusch, Jay M

2016-08-01

The objectives were to: (a) develop a continuous frequency multiplier (FM) for the Revised NIOSH Lifting Equation (RNLE) as a function of lifting frequency and duration of a lifting task, and (b) describe the Cumulative Lifting Index (CULI), a methodology for estimating physical exposure to workers with job rotation. The existing FM for the RNLE (FME) does not differentiate between task duration >2 hr and <8 hr, which makes quantifying physical exposure to workers with job rotation difficult and presents challenges to job designers. Using the existing FMs for 1, 2, and 8 hr of task durations, we developed a continuous FM (FMP) that extends to 12 hr per day. We simulated 157,500 jobs consisting of two tasks each and, using different combinations of Frequency Independent Lifting Index, lifting frequency and duration of lifting. Biomechanical stresses were estimated using the CULI, time-weighted average (TWA), and peak exposure. The median difference between FME and FMP was ±1% (range: 0%-15%). Compared to CULI, TWA underestimated risk of low-back pain (LBP) for 18% to 30% of jobs, and peak exposure for an assumed 8-hr work shift overestimated risk of LBP for 20% to 25% of jobs. Peak task exposure showed 90% agreement with CULI but ignored one of two tasks. The CULI partially addressed the underestimation of physical exposure using the TWA approach and overestimation of exposure using the peak-exposure approach. The proposed FM and CULI may provide more accurate physical exposure estimates, and therefore estimated risk of LBP, for workers with job rotation. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Stability of modularity and structural keystone species in temporal cumulative plant- flower-visitor networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dupont, Yoko; Olesen, Jens Mogens

2012-01-01

Modularity is a structural property of ecological networks, which has received much interest, but has been poorly explored. Modules are distinct subsets of species interacting strongly with each other, but sparsely with species outside the subset. Using a series of temporal cumulative networks, we...... all flowering plants and flower-visiting insect species throughout the flowering season at three dry heathland sites in Denmark. For each site, we constructed cumulative networks every 0.5 months, resulting in series of 10–12 networks per site. Numbers of interactions, and plant and insect species...... around one or two hubs. These hub species encompassed a small number of plant species, many of which acted as hubs at several study sites and throughout most of their flowering season. Thus, these plants become of key importance in maintaining the structure of their pollination network. We conclude...

Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program

Science.gov (United States)

Bowerman, Paul N.; Scheuer, Ernest M.; Nolty, Robert

1990-01-01

Overflow and underflow in sums prevented. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program, CUMPOIS, one of two computer programs that make calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines cumulative Poisson distribution, used to evaluate cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and cdf for X (sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Written in C.

An entropy based analysis of the relationship between the DOW JONES Index and the TRNA Sentiment series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); A.K. Singh (Abhay)

2016-01-01

textabstractThis paper features an analysis of the relationship between the DOW JONES Industrial Average Index (DJIA) and a sentiment news series using daily data obtained from the Thomson Reuters News Analytics (TRNA)1 provided by SIRCA (The Securities Industry Research Centre of the Asia Pacic).

Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

Science.gov (United States)

Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

2018-03-01

The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

Properties of power series of analytic in a bidisc functions of bounded $\\mathbf{L}$-index in joint variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. I. Bandura

2017-07-01

Full Text Available We generalized some criteria of boundedness of $\\mathbf{L}$-index in joint variables for analytic in a bidisc functions, where $\\mathbf{L}(z=(l_1(z_1,z_2,$ $l_{2}(z_1,z_2,$ $l_j:\\mathbb{D}^2\\to \\mathbb{R}_+$ is a continuous function, $j\\in\\{1,2\\},$ $\\mathbb{D}^2$ is a bidisc $\\{(z_1,z_2\\in\\mathbb{C}^2: |z_1|<1,|z_2|<1\\}.$ The propositions describe a behaviour of power series expansion on a skeleton of a bidisc. We estimated power series expansion by a dominating homogeneous polynomial with the degree that does not exceed some number depending only from radii of bidisc. Replacing universal quantifier by existential quantifier for radii of bidisc, we also proved sufficient conditions of boundedness of $\\mathbf{L}$-index in joint variables for analytic functions which are weaker than necessary conditions.

Family Resources and Effects on Child Behavior Problem Interventions: A Cumulative Risk Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Tømmerås, Truls; Kjøbli, John

2017-01-01

Family resources have been associated with health care inequality in general and with social gradients in treatment outcomes for children with behavior problems. However, there is limited evidence concerning cumulative risk-the accumulation of social and economic disadvantages in a family-and whether cumulative risk moderates the outcomes of evidence-based parent training interventions. We used data from two randomized controlled trials evaluating high-intensity ( n  = 137) and low-intensity ( n  = 216) versions of Parent Management Training-Oregon (PMTO) with a 50:50 allocation between participants receiving PMTO interventions or regular care. A nine-item family cumulative risk index tapping socioeconomic resources and parental health was constructed to assess the family's exposure to risk. Autoregressive structured equation models (SEM) were run to investigate whether cumulative risk moderated child behaviors at post-treatment and follow-up (6 months). Our results showed opposite social gradients for the treatment conditions: the children exposed to cumulative risk in a pooled sample of both PMTO groups displayed lower levels of behavior problems, whereas children with identical risk exposures who received regular care experienced more problems. Furthermore, our results indicated that the social gradients differed between PMTO interventions: children exposed to cumulative risk in the low-intensity (five sessions) Brief Parent Training fared equally well as their high-resource counterparts, whereas children exposed to cumulative risk in the high-intensity PMTO (12 sessions) experienced vastly better treatment effects. Providing evidence-based parent training seem to be an effective way to counteract health care inequality, and the more intensive PMTO treatment seemed to be a particularly effective way to help families with cumulative risk.

CUMULATE ROCKS ASSOCIATED WITH CARBONATE ASSIMILATION, HORTAVÆR COMPLEX, NORTH-CENTRAL NORWAY

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, C. G.; Prestvik, T.; Li, Y.

2009-12-01

The Hortavær igneous complex intruded high-grade metamorphic rocks of the Caledonian Helgeland Nappe Complex at ca. 466 Ma. The complex is an unusual mafic-silicic layered intrusion (MASLI) because the principal felsic rock type is syenite and because the syenite formed in situ rather than by deep-seated partial melting of crustal rocks. Magma differentiation in the complex was by assimilation, primarily of calc-silicate rocks and melts with contributions from marble and semi-pelites, plus fractional crystallization. The effect of assimilation of calcite-rich rocks was to enhance stability of fassaitic clinopyroxene at the expense of olivine, which resulted in alkali-rich residual melts and lowering of silica activity. This combination of MASLI-style emplacement and carbonate assimilation produced three types of cumulate rocks: (1) Syenitic cumulates formed by liquid-crystal separation. As sheets of mafic magma were loaded on crystal-rich syenitic magma, residual liquid was expelled, penetrating the overlying mafic sheets in flame structures, and leaving a cumulate syenite. (2) Reaction cumulates. Carbonate assimilation, illustrated by a simple assimilation reaction: olivine + calcite + melt = clinopyroxene + CO2 resulted in cpx-rich cumulates such as clinopyroxenite, gabbro, and mela-monzodiorite, many of which contain igneous calcite. (3) Magmatic skarns. Calc-silicate host rocks underwent partial melting during assimilation, yielding a Ca-rich melt as the principal assimilated material and permitting extensive reaction with surrounding magma to form Kspar + cpx + garnet-rich ‘cumulate’ rocks. Cumulate types (2) and (3) do not reflect traditional views of cumulate rocks but instead result from a series of melt-present discontinuous (peritectic) reactions and partial melting of calc-silicate xenoliths. In the Hortavær complex, such cumulates are evident because of the distinctive peritectic cumulate assemblages. It is unclear whether assimilation of �

Adaptive strategies for cumulative cultural learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Ehn, Micael; Laland, Kevin

2012-05-21

The demographic and ecological success of our species is frequently attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture. However, it is not yet known how humans combine social and asocial learning to generate effective strategies for learning in a cumulative cultural context. Here we explore how cumulative culture influences the relative merits of various pure and conditional learning strategies, including pure asocial and social learning, critical social learning, conditional social learning and individual refiner strategies. We replicate the Rogers' paradox in the cumulative setting. However, our analysis suggests that strategies that resolved Rogers' paradox in a non-cumulative setting may not necessarily evolve in a cumulative setting, thus different strategies will optimize cumulative and non-cumulative cultural learning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic prediction of cumulative incidence functions by direct binomial regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Grand, Mia K; de Witte, Theo J M; Putter, Hein

2018-03-25

In recent years there have been a series of advances in the field of dynamic prediction. Among those is the development of methods for dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function in a competing risk setting. These models enable the predictions to be updated as time progresses and more information becomes available, for example when a patient comes back for a follow-up visit after completing a year of treatment, the risk of death, and adverse events may have changed since treatment initiation. One approach to model the cumulative incidence function in competing risks is by direct binomial regression, where right censoring of the event times is handled by inverse probability of censoring weights. We extend the approach by combining it with landmarking to enable dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function. The proposed models are very flexible, as they allow the covariates to have complex time-varying effects, and we illustrate how to investigate possible time-varying structures using Wald tests. The models are fitted using generalized estimating equations. The method is applied to bone marrow transplant data and the performance is investigated in a simulation study. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Cumulative risk assessment of phthalate exposure of Danish children and adolescents using the hazard index approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søeborg, T; Frederiksen, H; Andersson, Anna-Maria

2012-01-01

Human risk assessment of chemicals is traditionally presented as the ratio between the actual level of exposure and an acceptable level of exposure, with the acceptable level of exposure most often being estimated by appropriate authorities. This approach is generally sound when assessing the risk...... of individual chemicals. However, several chemicals may concurrently target the same receptor, work through the same mechanism or in other ways induce the same effect(s) in the body. In these cases, cumulative risk assessment should be applied. The present study uses biomonitoring data from 129 Danish children...... and adolescents and resulting estimated daily intakes of four different phthalates. These daily intake estimates are used for a cumulative risk assessment with anti-androgenic effects as the endpoint using Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) values determined by the European Food Safety Authorities (EFSA) or Reference...

Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and the question of cumulative culture: an experimental approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall-Pescini, Sarah; Whiten, Andrew

2008-07-01

There is increasing evidence for cultural variations in behaviour among non-human species, but human societies additionally display elaborate cumulative cultural evolution, with successive generations building on earlier achievements. Evidence for cumulative culture in non-human species remains minimal and controversial. Relevant experiments are also lacking. Here we present a first experiment designed to examine chimpanzees' capacity for cumulative social learning. Eleven young chimpanzees were presented with a foraging device, which afforded both a relatively simple and a more complex tool-use technique for extracting honey. The more complex 'probing' technique incorporated the core actions of the simpler 'dipping' one and was also much more productive. In a baseline, exploration condition only two subjects discovered the dipping technique and a solitary instance of probing occurred. Demonstrations of dipping by a familiar human were followed by acquisition of this technique by the five subjects aged three years or above, whilst younger subjects showed a significant increase only in the elements of the dipping technique. By contrast, subsequent demonstrations of the probing task were not followed by acquisition of this more productive technique. Subjects stuck to their habitual dipping method despite an escalating series of demonstrations eventually exceeding 200. Supplementary tests showed this technique is within the capability of chimpanzees of this age. We therefore tentatively conclude that young chimpanzees exhibit a tendency to become 'stuck' on a technique they initially learn, inhibiting cumulative social learning and possibly constraining the species' capacity for cumulative cultural evolution.

A Framework to Assess the Cumulative Hydrological Impacts of Dams on flow Regime

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y.; Wang, D.

2016-12-01

In this study we proposed a framework to assess the cumulative impact of dams on hydrological regime, and the impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on flow regime in Yangtze River were investigated with the framework. We reconstructed the unregulated flow series to compare with the regulated flow series in the same period. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration parameters were used to examine the hydrological regime change. Among IHA parameters, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Principal Components Analysis identified the representative indicators of hydrological alterations. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit showed that the reservoir also changed the seasonal regime of the flows in autumn and winter. Annual extreme flows and October flows changes lead to negative ecological implications downstream from the Three Gorges Dam. Ecological operation for the Three Gorges Dam is necessary to mitigate the negative effects on the river ecosystem in the middle reach of Yangtze River. The framework proposed here could be a robust method to assess the cumulative impacts of reservoir operation.

Early cumulative risk predicts externalizing behavior at age 10: The mediating role of adverse parenting.

Science.gov (United States)

Gach, Emily J; Ip, Ka I; Sameroff, Arnold J; Olson, Sheryl L

2018-02-01

Multiple environmental risk factors in early childhood predict a broad range of adverse developmental outcomes. However, most prior longitudinal research has not illuminated explanatory mechanisms. Our main goals were to examine predictive associations between cumulative ecological risk factors in early childhood and children's later externalizing problems and to determine whether these associations were explained by variations in parenting quality. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) at risk for school-age conduct problems and their parents and teachers. Children were approximately 3 years old at Time 1 (T1) and 10 years old at Time 2 (T2). Reports of contextual risk at T1 were used to develop a cumulative risk index consisting of 6 singular risk variables from 3 ecological levels: social resources (low income; social isolation), family resources (marital aggression; poor total family functioning), and maternal resources (single parent status; poor maternal mental health). At T1, parenting variables were measured (corporal punishment, warm responsiveness, maternal efficacy, and negative perceptions of child behavior). At T2, mothers, fathers, and teachers reported child externalizing problems. Johnson's relative weight analysis revealed that the cumulative risk index was a more powerful predictor of age 10 years externalizing behavior than any of the singular contextual risk variables. Adverse parenting mediated the effects of cumulative risk on later child externalizing problems. Our findings have significant implications for understanding long-term effects of multiple contextual risk factors present in early childhood and for the implementation of positive parenting interventions early on. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Forecasting Long Memory Series Subject to Structural Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dias, Gustavo Fruet; Papailias, Fotis

A two-stage forecasting approach for long memory time series is introduced. In the first step we estimate the fractional exponent and, applying the fractional differencing operator, we obtain the underlying weakly dependent series. In the second step, we perform the multi-step ahead forecasts...... for the weakly dependent series and obtain their long memory counterparts by applying the fractional cumulation operator. The methodology applies to stationary and nonstationary cases. Simulations and an application to seven time series provide evidence that the new methodology is more robust to structural...... change and yields good forecasting results....

On the multi-index (3 m-parametric) Mittag-Leffler functions, fractional calculus relations and series convergence

Science.gov (United States)

Paneva-Konovska, Jordanka

2013-10-01

In this paper we consider a family of 3 m-indices generalizations of the classical Mittag-Leffler function, called multi-index (3 m-parametric) Mittag-Leffler functions. We survey the basic properties of these entire functions, find their order and type, and new representations by means of Mellin-Barnes type contour integrals, Wright p Ψ q -functions and Fox H-functions, asymptotic estimates. Formulas for integer and fractional order integration and differentiations are found, and these are extended also for the operators of the generalized fractional calculus (multiple Erdélyi-Kober operators). Some interesting particular cases of the multi-index Mittag-Leffler functions are discussed. The convergence of series of such type functions in the complex plane is considered, and analogues of the Cauchy-Hadamard, Abel, Tauber and Littlewood theorems are provided.

Beryllium-7 and 210Pb atmospheric deposition measured in moss and dependence on cumulative precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krmar, M.; Mihailović, D.T.; Arsenić, I.; Radnović, D.; Pap, I.

2016-01-01

This paper focuses on analysis of the time series of 7 Be and 210 Pb activity measured in moss, and the amount, as well as duration of precipitation, to gain a better understanding of the possible relationships between airborne radionuclide deposition and precipitation. Here we consider whether the amount of these airborne radionuclides in moss samples is a cumulative measure of radionuclide deposition and decay, and a new approach for analyses of the relationships between precipitation and moss activity concentrations is suggested. Through these analyses it was shown that comparison of cumulative activity measured at one location using moss, normalized by values of cumulative amount or duration of precipitation, showed different regimes of airborne radionuclide deposition. - Graphical abstract: Correlation between cumulative activity of 7 Be and 210 Pb measured in moss samples normalized by the cumulative precipitation. - Highlights: • Use of mosses in measurement of airborne radionuclides deposition was investigated • Prior work indicated 7 Be and 210 Pb activities were not correlated with precipitation • This is unusual since radionuclides moss tissues depends on depositional fluxes. • A new method for study of 7 Be and 210 Pb depositional dynamics was developed • Different seasonal regimes of 7 Be deposition are more noticeable in new technique

Cumulative effects of wind turbines. A guide to assessing the cumulative effects of wind energy development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-07-01

This guidance provides advice on how to assess the cumulative effects of wind energy developments in an area and is aimed at developers, planners, and stakeholders interested in the development of wind energy in the UK. The principles of cumulative assessment, wind energy development in the UK, cumulative assessment of wind energy development, and best practice conclusions are discussed. The identification and assessment of the cumulative effects is examined in terms of global environmental sustainability, local environmental quality and socio-economic activity. Supplementary guidance for assessing the principle cumulative effects on the landscape, on birds, and on the visual effect is provided. The consensus building approach behind the preparation of this guidance is outlined in the annexes of the report.

Generalized least squares and empirical Bayes estimation in regional partial duration series index-flood modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

1997-01-01

parameters is inferred from regional data using generalized least squares (GLS) regression. Two different Bayesian T-year event estimators are introduced: a linear estimator that requires only some moments of the prior distributions to be specified and a parametric estimator that is based on specified......A regional estimation procedure that combines the index-flood concept with an empirical Bayes method for inferring regional information is introduced. The model is based on the partial duration series approach with generalized Pareto (GP) distributed exceedances. The prior information of the model...

Safety and efficacy of aneurysm treatment with WEB in the cumulative population of three prospective, multicenter series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pierot, Laurent; Moret, Jacques; Barreau, Xavier

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: Flow disruption with the WEB is an innovative endovascular approach for treatment of wide-neck bifurcation aneurysms. Initial studies have shown a low complication rate with good efficacy. PURPOSE: To report clinical and anatomical results of the WEB treatment in the cumulative popula...

The challenge of cumulative impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Masden, Elisabeth

2011-07-01

Full text: As governments pledge to combat climate change, wind turbines are becoming a common feature of terrestrial and marine environments. Although wind power is a renewable energy source and a means of reducing carbon emissions, there is a need to ensure that the wind farms themselves do not damage the environment. There is particular concern over the impacts of wind farms on bird populations, and with increasing numbers of wind farm proposals, the concern focuses on cumulative impacts. Individually, a wind farm, or indeed any activity/action, may have minor effects on the environment, but collectively these may be significant, potentially greater than the sum of the individual parts acting alone. Cumulative impact assessment is a legislative requirement of environmental impact assessment but such assessments are rarely adequate restricting the acquisition of basic knowledge about the cumulative impacts of wind farms on bird populations. Reasons for this are numerous but a recurring theme is the lack of clear definitions and guidance on how to perform cumulative assessments. Here we present a conceptual framework and include illustrative examples to demonstrate how the framework can be used to improve the planning and execution of cumulative impact assessments. The core concept is that explicit definitions of impacts, actions and scales of assessment are required to reduce uncertainty in the process of assessment and improve communication between stake holders. Only when it is clear what has been included within a cumulative assessment, is it possible to make comparisons between developments. Our framework requires improved legislative guidance on the actions to include in assessments, and advice on the appropriate baselines against which to assess impacts. Cumulative impacts are currently considered on restricted scales (spatial and temporal) relating to individual development assessments. We propose that benefits would be gained from elevating cumulative

A global coupling index of multivariate neural series with application to the evaluation of mild cognitive impairment.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Dong; Xue, Qing; Lu, Chengbiao; Guan, Xinyong; Wang, Yuping; Li, Xiaoli

2014-08-01

Recently, the synchronization between neural signals has been widely used as a key indicator of brain function. To understand comprehensively the effect of synchronization on the brain function, accurate computation of the synchronization strength among multivariate neural series from the whole brain is necessary. In this study, we proposed a method named global coupling index (GCI) to estimate the synchronization strength of multiple neural signals. First of all, performance of the GCI method was evaluated by analyzing simulated EEG signals from a multi-channel neural mass model, including the effects of the frequency band, the coupling coefficient, and the signal noise ratio. Then, the GCI method was applied to analyze the EEG signals from 12 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects and 12 normal controls (NC). The results showed that GCI method had two major advantages over the global synchronization index (GSI) or S-estimator. Firstly, simulation data showed that the GCI method provided both a more robust result on the frequency band and a better performance on the coupling coefficients. Secondly, the actual EEG data demonstrated that GCI method was more sensitive in differentiating the MCI from control subjects, in terms of the global synchronization strength of neural series of specific alpha, beta1 and beta2 frequency bands. Hence, it is suggested that GCI is a better method over GSI and S-estimator to estimate the synchronization strength of multivariate neural series for predicting the MCI from the whole brain EEG recordings. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Study of cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts with nonlinear output frequency response functions based on NARMAX modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Honglan; Mao, Hanying; Mao, Hanling; Zheng, Weixue; Huang, Zhenfeng; Li, Xinxin; Wang, Xianghong

2017-12-01

Cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts plays a key role in the process of remanufacturing engineering and is related to the service safety of the remanufactured parts. In light of the nonlinear properties of used parts caused by cumulative fatigue damage, the based nonlinear output frequency response functions detection approach offers a breakthrough to solve this key problem. First, a modified PSO-adaptive lasso algorithm is introduced to improve the accuracy of the NARMAX model under impulse hammer excitation, and then, an effective new algorithm is derived to estimate the nonlinear output frequency response functions under rectangular pulse excitation, and a based nonlinear output frequency response functions index is introduced to detect the cumulative fatigue damage in used parts. Then, a novel damage detection approach that integrates the NARMAX model and the rectangular pulse is proposed for nonlinear output frequency response functions identification and cumulative fatigue damage detection of used parts. Finally, experimental studies of fatigued plate specimens and used connecting rod parts are conducted to verify the validity of the novel approach. The obtained results reveal that the new approach can detect cumulative fatigue damages of used parts effectively and efficiently and that the various values of the based nonlinear output frequency response functions index can be used to detect the different fatigue damages or working time. Since the proposed new approach can extract nonlinear properties of systems by only a single excitation of the inspected system, it shows great promise for use in remanufacturing engineering applications.

Detecting Inter-Annual Variations in the Phenology of Evergreen Conifers Using Long-Term MODIS Vegetation Index Time Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Ulsig

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Long-term observations of vegetation phenology can be used to monitor the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides the most efficient means to observe phenological events through time series analysis of vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI. This study investigates the potential of a Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI, which has been linked to vegetation light use efficiency, to improve the accuracy of MODIS-based estimates of phenology in an evergreen conifer forest. Timings of the start and end of the growing season (SGS and EGS were derived from a 13-year-long time series of PRI and NDVI based on a MAIAC (multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction processed MODIS dataset and standard MODIS NDVI product data. The derived dates were validated with phenology estimates from ground-based flux tower measurements of ecosystem productivity. Significant correlations were found between the MAIAC time series and ground-estimated SGS (R2 = 0.36–0.8, which is remarkable since previous studies have found it difficult to observe inter-annual phenological variations in evergreen vegetation from satellite data. The considerably noisier NDVI product could not accurately predict SGS, and EGS could not be derived successfully from any of the time series. While the strongest relationship overall was found between SGS derived from the ground data and PRI, MAIAC NDVI exhibited high correlations with SGS more consistently (R2 > 0.6 in all cases. The results suggest that PRI can serve as an effective indicator of spring seasonal transitions, however, additional work is necessary to confirm the relationships observed and to further explore the usefulness of MODIS PRI for detecting phenology.

32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16... § 651.16 Cumulative impacts. (a) NEPA analyses must assess cumulative effects, which are the impact on the environment resulting from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present...

Cumulative Impact Assessment: Approaching Environmental Capacity in Development Area Using Environmental Impact Assessment Information

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, N.; Lee, M. J.; Maeng, J. H.

2017-12-01

Environmental impact assessment estimates the impact of development as a business unit and establishes mitigation plan. If the development is done, its economic effects can spread to the nearby areas. So that various developments can be distributed at different time intervals. The impact of the new developments can be combined with existing environmental impacts and can have a larger impact. That is, Cumulative impact assessment is needed to consider the environmental capacity of the Nearby area. Cumulative impact assessments require policy tools such as environmental impact assessment information and cumulative impact estimation models. In Korea, environmental information (water quality, air quality, etc.) of the development site is measured for environmental impact assessment and monitored for a certain period (generally 5 years) after the project. In addition, by constructing the environmental information as a spatial database, it is possible to express the environmental impact on a regional basis spatially and to intuitively use it for development site selection. Utilizing a composite model of environmental impact assessment information and Remote Sensing data for cumulative impact estimation, That can be used as a policy decision support tool that provides quantitative information for development area management, such as time series effect and sprawl phenomenon.

Divergent Cumulative Cultural Evolution

OpenAIRE

Marriott, Chris; Chebib, Jobran

2016-01-01

Divergent cumulative cultural evolution occurs when the cultural evolutionary trajectory diverges from the biological evolutionary trajectory. We consider the conditions under which divergent cumulative cultural evolution can occur. We hypothesize that two conditions are necessary. First that genetic and cultural information are stored separately in the agent. Second cultural information must be transferred horizontally between agents of different generations. We implement a model with these ...

Human Development Inequality Index and Cancer Pattern: a Global Distributive Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rezaeian, Shahab; Khazaei, Salman; Khazaei, Somayeh; Mansori, Kamyar; Sanjari Moghaddam, Ali; Ayubi, Erfan

2016-01-01

This study aimed to quantify associations of the human development inequality (HDI) index with incidence, mortality, and mortality to incidence ratios for eight common cancers among different countries. In this ecological study, data about incidence and mortality rates of cancers was obtained from the Global Cancer Project for 169 countries. HDI indices for the same countries was obtained from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) database. The concentration index was defined as the covariance between cumulative percentage of cancer indicators (incidence, mortality and mortality to incidence ratio) and the cumulative percentage of economic indicators (country economic rank). Results indicated that incidences of cancers of liver, cervix and esophagus were mainly concentrated in countries with a low HDI index while cancers of lung, breast, colorectum, prostate and stomach were concentrated mainly in countries with a high HDI index. The same pattern was observed for mortality from cancer except for prostate cancer that was more concentrated in countries with a low HDI index. Higher MIRs for all cancers were more concentrated in countries with a low HDI index. It was concluded that patterns of cancer occurrence correlate with care disparities at the country level.

Severe occupational hand eczema, job stress and cumulative sickness absence.

Science.gov (United States)

Böhm, D; Stock Gissendanner, S; Finkeldey, F; John, S M; Werfel, T; Diepgen, T L; Breuer, K

2014-10-01

Stress is known to activate or exacerbate dermatoses, but the relationships between chronic stress, job-related stress and sickness absence among occupational hand eczema (OHE) patients are inadequately understood. To see whether chronic stress or burnout symptoms were associated with cumulative sickness absence in patients with OHE and to determine which factors predicted sickness absence in a model including measures of job-related and chronic stress. We investigated correlations of these factors in employed adult inpatients with a history of sickness absence due to OHE in a retrospective cross-sectional explorative study, which assessed chronic stress (Trier Inventory for the Assessment of Chronic Stress), burnout (Shirom Melamed Burnout Measure), clinical symptom severity (Osnabrück Hand Eczema Severity Index), perceived symptom severity, demographic characteristics and cumulative days of sickness absence. The study group consisted of 122 patients. OHE symptoms were not more severe among patients experiencing greater stress and burnout. Women reported higher levels of chronic stress on some measures. Cumulative days of sickness absence correlated with individual dimensions of job-related stress and, in multiple regression analysis, with an overall measure of chronic stress. Chronic stress is an additional factor predicting cumulative sickness absence among severely affected OHE patients. Other relevant factors for this study sample included the 'cognitive weariness' subscale of the Shirom Melamed Burnout Measure and the physical component summary score of the SF-36, a measure of health-related life quality. Prevention and rehabilitation should take job stress into consideration in multidisciplinary treatment strategies for severely affected OHE patients. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Development of an Integrated Moisture Index for predicting species composition

Science.gov (United States)

Louis R. Iverson; Charles T. Scott; Martin E. Dale; Anantha Prasad

1996-01-01

A geographic information system (GIS) approach was used to develop an Integrated Moisture Index (IMI), which was used to predict species composition for Ohio forests. Several landscape features (a slope-aspect shading index, cumulative flow of water downslope, curvature of the landscape, and the water-holding capacity of the soil) were derived from elevation and soils...

Beryllium-7 and {sup 210}Pb atmospheric deposition measured in moss and dependence on cumulative precipitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krmar, M., E-mail: krmar@df.uns.ac.rs [Faculty of Science, Physics Department, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 4, Novi Sad (Serbia); Mihailović, D.T.; Arsenić, I. [Faculty of Agriculture, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 8, Novi Sad (Serbia); Radnović, D. [Faculty of Science, Biology Department, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 4, Novi Sad (Serbia); Pap, I. [Faculty of Agriculture, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 8, Novi Sad (Serbia)

2016-01-15

This paper focuses on analysis of the time series of {sup 7}Be and {sup 210}Pb activity measured in moss, and the amount, as well as duration of precipitation, to gain a better understanding of the possible relationships between airborne radionuclide deposition and precipitation. Here we consider whether the amount of these airborne radionuclides in moss samples is a cumulative measure of radionuclide deposition and decay, and a new approach for analyses of the relationships between precipitation and moss activity concentrations is suggested. Through these analyses it was shown that comparison of cumulative activity measured at one location using moss, normalized by values of cumulative amount or duration of precipitation, showed different regimes of airborne radionuclide deposition. - Graphical abstract: Correlation between cumulative activity of {sup 7}Be and {sup 210}Pb measured in moss samples normalized by the cumulative precipitation. - Highlights: • Use of mosses in measurement of airborne radionuclides deposition was investigated • Prior work indicated {sup 7}Be and {sup 210}Pb activities were not correlated with precipitation • This is unusual since radionuclides moss tissues depends on depositional fluxes. • A new method for study of {sup 7}Be and {sup 210}Pb depositional dynamics was developed • Different seasonal regimes of {sup 7}Be deposition are more noticeable in new technique.

Secant cumulants and toric geometry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Michalek, M.; Oeding, L.; Zwiernik, P.W.

2012-01-01

We study the secant line variety of the Segre product of projective spaces using special cumulant coordinates adapted for secant varieties. We show that the secant variety is covered by open normal toric varieties. We prove that in cumulant coordinates its ideal is generated by binomial quadrics. We

Cumulative risk exposure moderates the association between parasympathetic reactivity and inhibitory control in preschool-age children.

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliano, Ryan J; Roos, Leslie E; Farrar, Jessica D; Skowron, Elizabeth A

2018-04-01

A child's cumulative risk for early exposure to stress has been linked to alterations of self-regulation outcomes, including neurobiological correlates of inhibitory control (IC). We examined whether children's ability to engage the parasympathetic nervous system impacts how risk affects IC. Children ages 3-5 years completed two laboratory measures of IC while respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) was measured, indexing parasympathetic activity. Children with greater risk demonstrated lower IC; risk also moderated associations between RSA reactivity and IC. For children with less risk, greater RSA withdrawal during IC tasks was associated with better IC. In contrast, greater risk was associated with poor IC, regardless of RSA withdrawal. Effects of risk were more pronounced for cumulative than individual measures. Results suggest that cumulative risk exposure disrupts connectivity between physiological and behavioral components of self-regulation in early childhood. Parasympathetic withdrawal to cognitive tasks may be less relevant for performance in developmental samples experiencing greater life stress. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cumulative Culture and Future Thinking: Is Mental Time Travel a Prerequisite to Cumulative Cultural Evolution?

Science.gov (United States)

Vale, G. L.; Flynn, E. G.; Kendal, R. L.

2012-01-01

Cumulative culture denotes the, arguably, human capacity to build on the cultural behaviors of one's predecessors, allowing increases in cultural complexity to occur such that many of our cultural artifacts, products and technologies have progressed beyond what a single individual could invent alone. This process of cumulative cultural evolution…

Prospects of renewable energy sources in India: Prioritization of alternative sources in terms of Energy Index

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jha, Shibani K.; Puppala, Harish

2017-01-01

The growing energy demand in progressing civilization governs the exploitation of various renewable sources over the conventional sources. Wind, Solar, Hydro, Biomass, and waste & Bagasse are the various available renewable sources in India. A reliable nonconventional geothermal source is also available in India but it is restricted to direct heat applications. This study archives the status of renewable alternatives in India. The techno economic factors and environmental aspects associated with each of these alternatives are discussed. This study focusses on prioritizing the renewable sources based on a parameter introduced as Energy Index. This index is evaluated using cumulative scores obtained for each of the alternatives. The cumulative score is obtained by evaluating each alternative over a range of eleven environmental and techno economic criteria following Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process. The eleven criteria's considered in the study are Carbon dioxide emissions (CO 2 ), Sulphur dioxide emissions (SO 2 ), Nitrogen oxide emissions (NO x ), Land requirement, Current energy cost, Potential future energy cost, Turnkey investment, Capacity factor, Energy efficiency, Design period and Water consumption. It is concluded from the study that the geothermal source is the most preferable alternative with highest Energy Index. Hydro, Wind, Biomass and Solar sources are subsequently preferred alternatives. - Highlights: • FAH process is used to obtain cumulative score for each renewable alternative. • Cumulative score is normalized by highest score of ideal source. • Energy Index shows how best a renewable alternative is. • Priority order is obtained for alternatives based on Energy Index. • Geothermal is most preferable source followed by Hydro, Wind, Biomass and Solar.

CUMEX: a cumulative hazard index for assessing limiting exposures to environmental pollutants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walsh, P.J.; Killough, G.G.; Parzyck, D.C.; Rohwer, P.S.; Rupp, e.M.; Whitfield, B.L.; Booth, R.S.; Raridon, R.J.

1977-04-01

A hazard index methodology called CUMEX has been developed for limiting human exposure to environmental pollutants. Hazard index is defined as Q/Q/sub L/ where Q is exposure or dose to total-body, organ or tissue from all environmental pathways and Q/sub L/ is a limit which should not be exceeded because of health risk to humans. Mathematical formulations for hazard indices are developed for each sampling medium corresponding to each effluent type. These hazard indices are accumulated into composite indices such that total human intake or dose would not exceed the health risk limit. Mathematical formulation for composite hazard indices or CUMEX indices for multiple pollutants are presented. An example CUMEX application to cadmium release from a smelter complex in East Helena, Montana demonstrates details of the methodology for a single pollutant where human intake occurs through inhalation and ingestion

Development and assessment of Transpirative Deficit Index (D-TDI) for agricultural drought monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Borghi, Anna; Rienzner, Michele; Gandolfi, Claudio; Facchi, Arianna

2017-04-01

Drought is a major cause of crop yield loss, both in rainfed and irrigated agroecosystems. In past decades, many approaches have been developed to assess agricultural drought, usually based on the monitoring or modelling of the soil water content condition. All these indices show weaknesses when applied for a real time drought monitoring and management at the local scale, since they do not consider explicitly crops and soil properties at an adequate spatial resolution. This work describes a newly developed agricultural drought index, called Transpirative Deficit Index (D-TDI), and assesses the results of its application over a study area of about 210 km2 within the Po River Plain (northern Italy). The index is based on transforming the interannual distribution of the transpirative deficit (potential crop transpiration minus actual transpiration), calculated daily by means of a spatially distributed conceptual hydrological model and cumulated over user-selected time-steps, to a standard normal distribution (following the approach proposed by the meteorological index SPI - Standard Precipitation Index). For the application to the study area a uniform maize crop cover (maize is the most widespread crop in the area) and 22-year (1993-2014) meteorological data series were considered. Simulation results consist in maps of the index cumulated over 10-day time steps over a mesh with cells of 250 m. A correlation analysis was carried out (1) to study the characteristics and the memory of D-TDI and to assess its intra- and inter-annual variability, (2) to assess the response of the agricultural drought (i.e., the information provided by D-TDI) to the meteorological drought computed through the SPI over different temporal steps. The D-TDI is positively auto-correlated with a persistence of 30 days, and positively cross-correlated to the SPI with a persistence of 40 days, demonstrating that D-TDI responds to meteorological forcing. Correlation analyses demonstrate that soils

Forest Disturbance Mapping Using Dense Synthetic Landsat/MODIS Time-Series and Permutation-Based Disturbance Index Detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Frantz

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Spatio-temporal information on process-based forest loss is essential for a wide range of applications. Despite remote sensing being the only feasible means of monitoring forest change at regional or greater scales, there is no retrospectively available remote sensor that meets the demand of monitoring forests with the required spatial detail and guaranteed high temporal frequency. As an alternative, we employed the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM to produce a dense synthetic time series by fusing Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS nadir Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF adjusted reflectance. Forest loss was detected by applying a multi-temporal disturbance detection approach implementing a Disturbance Index-based detection strategy. The detection thresholds were permutated with random numbers for the normal distribution in order to generate a multi-dimensional threshold confidence area. As a result, a more robust parameterization and a spatially more coherent detection could be achieved. (i The original Landsat time series; (ii synthetic time series; and a (iii combined hybrid approach were used to identify the timing and extent of disturbances. The identified clearings in the Landsat detection were verified using an annual woodland clearing dataset from Queensland’s Statewide Landcover and Trees Study. Disturbances caused by stand-replacing events were successfully identified. The increased temporal resolution of the synthetic time series indicated promising additional information on disturbance timing. The results of the hybrid detection unified the benefits of both approaches, i.e., the spatial quality and general accuracy of the Landsat detection and the increased temporal information of synthetic time series. Results indicated that a temporal improvement in the detection of the disturbance date could be achieved relative to the irregularly spaced Landsat

System-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

Science.gov (United States)

Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

1989-01-01

Cumulative-binomial computer program, NEWTONP, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Program finds probability required to yield given system reliability. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

Cumulative human impacts on marine predators.

Science.gov (United States)

Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J; Halpern, Benjamin S; Breed, Greg A; Nickel, Barry; Teutschel, Nicole M; Crowder, Larry B; Benson, Scott; Dutton, Peter H; Bailey, Helen; Kappes, Michelle A; Kuhn, Carey E; Weise, Michael J; Mate, Bruce; Shaffer, Scott A; Hassrick, Jason L; Henry, Robert W; Irvine, Ladd; McDonald, Birgitte I; Robinson, Patrick W; Block, Barbara A; Costa, Daniel P

2013-01-01

Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact (CUI) on marine predators by combining electronic tracking data of eight protected predator species (n=685 individuals) in the California Current Ecosystem with data on 24 anthropogenic stressors. We show significant variation in CUI with some of the highest impacts within US National Marine Sanctuaries. High variation in underlying species and cumulative impact distributions means that neither alone is sufficient for effective spatial management. Instead, comprehensive management approaches accounting for both cumulative human impacts and trade-offs among multiple stressors must be applied in planning the use of marine resources.

Predicting Jakarta composite index using hybrid of fuzzy time series and support vector regression models

Science.gov (United States)

Febrian Umbara, Rian; Tarwidi, Dede; Budi Setiawan, Erwin

2018-03-01

The paper discusses the prediction of Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The study is based on JCI historical data for 1286 days to predict the value of JCI one day ahead. This paper proposes predictions done in two stages., The first stage using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) to predict values of ten technical indicators, and the second stage using Support Vector Regression (SVR) to predict the value of JCI one day ahead, resulting in a hybrid prediction model FTS-SVR. The performance of this combined prediction model is compared with the performance of the single stage prediction model using SVR only. Ten technical indicators are used as input for each model.

Common-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

Science.gov (United States)

Scheuer, Ernest, M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

1989-01-01

Cumulative-binomial computer program, CROSSER, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), used independently of one another. Point of equality between reliability of system and common reliability of components found. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

Cumulative effects assessment: Does scale matter?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Therivel, Riki; Ross, Bill

2007-01-01

Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is (or should be) an integral part of environmental assessment at both the project and the more strategic level. CEA helps to link the different scales of environmental assessment in that it focuses on how a given receptor is affected by the totality of plans, projects and activities, rather than on the effects of a particular plan or project. This article reviews how CEAs consider, and could consider, scale issues: spatial extent, level of detail, and temporal issues. It is based on an analysis of Canadian project-level CEAs and UK strategic-level CEAs. Based on a review of literature and, especially, case studies with which the authors are familiar, it concludes that scale issues are poorly considered at both levels, with particular problems being unclear or non-existing cumulative effects scoping methodologies; poor consideration of past or likely future human activities beyond the plan or project in question; attempts to apportion 'blame' for cumulative effects; and, at the plan level, limited management of cumulative effects caused particularly by the absence of consent regimes. Scale issues are important in most of these problems. However both strategic-level and project-level CEA have much potential for managing cumulative effects through better siting and phasing of development, demand reduction and other behavioural changes, and particularly through setting development consent rules for projects. The lack of strategic resource-based thresholds constrains the robust management of strategic-level cumulative effects

Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children’s learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission—the cornerstone of human cultural diversity. PMID:28739945

Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Legare, Cristine H

2017-07-24

The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children's learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission-the cornerstone of human cultural diversity.

Childhood cumulative risk and obesity: the mediating role of self-regulatory ability.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Gary W; Fuller-Rowell, Thomas E; Doan, Stacey N

2012-01-01

We tested whether early childhood risk exposures are related to weight gain in adolescence and evaluate an underlying mechanism, self-regulatory behavior, for the risk-obesity link. Cumulative risk exposure to 9 sociodemographic (eg, poverty), physical (eg, substandard housing), and psychosocial (eg, family turmoil) stressors was assessed in 244 nine-year-old children. BMI was calculated at age 9 and then 4 years later. At age 9, children's ability to delay gratification as an index of self-regulatory behavior was assessed. Path analyses were then estimated to evaluate our mediational model (Cumulative risk → Self-regulation → BMI) over a 4-year period in a prospective, longitudinal design. Nine-year-old children exposed to a greater accumulation of multiple risk factors show larger gains in adiposity over the next four year period, net of their initial BMI. These gains in BMI during early adolescence are largely accounted for by deteriorated self-regulatory abilities among children facing more cumulative risks. Early childhood risk exposure leads to larger gains in BMI in adolescence. Given the importance of childhood adiposity to the development of obesity later in life, understanding the underlying mechanisms that link early experience to weight gain is an essential task. Deficiencies in self-regulation in response to chronic stress appears to be an important agent in the obesity epidemic.

Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

1989-01-01

Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

Cumulative human impacts on marine predators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J

2013-01-01

Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact...

Multivariate Local Polynomial Regression with Application to Shenzhen Component Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liyun Su

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This study attempts to characterize and predict stock index series in Shenzhen stock market using the concepts of multivariate local polynomial regression. Based on nonlinearity and chaos of the stock index time series, multivariate local polynomial prediction methods and univariate local polynomial prediction method, all of which use the concept of phase space reconstruction according to Takens' Theorem, are considered. To fit the stock index series, the single series changes into bivariate series. To evaluate the results, the multivariate predictor for bivariate time series based on multivariate local polynomial model is compared with univariate predictor with the same Shenzhen stock index data. The numerical results obtained by Shenzhen component index show that the prediction mean squared error of the multivariate predictor is much smaller than the univariate one and is much better than the existed three methods. Even if the last half of the training data are used in the multivariate predictor, the prediction mean squared error is smaller than the univariate predictor. Multivariate local polynomial prediction model for nonsingle time series is a useful tool for stock market price prediction.

An analysis of cumulative risks based on biomonitoring data for six phthalates using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

Science.gov (United States)

The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single chemical drives the cumulative risk of an individual exposed to multiple chemicals. Phthalates are a class of chemicals with ubiquitous exposures in the general population that have the potential to cause ...

Forecasting long memory series subject to structural change: A two-stage approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Papailias, Fotis; Dias, Gustavo Fruet

2015-01-01

A two-stage forecasting approach for long memory time series is introduced. In the first step, we estimate the fractional exponent and, by applying the fractional differencing operator, obtain the underlying weakly dependent series. In the second step, we produce multi-step-ahead forecasts...... for the weakly dependent series and obtain their long memory counterparts by applying the fractional cumulation operator. The methodology applies to both stationary and nonstationary cases. Simulations and an application to seven time series provide evidence that the new methodology is more robust to structural...

Chapter 19. Cumulative watershed effects and watershed analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie M. Reid

1998-01-01

Cumulative watershed effects are environmental changes that are affected by more than.one land-use activity and that are influenced by.processes involving the generation or transport.of water. Almost all environmental changes are.cumulative effects, and almost all land-use.activities contribute to cumulative effects

Time-series-analysis techniques applied to nuclear-material accounting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pike, D.H.; Morrison, G.W.; Downing, D.J.

1982-05-01

This document is designed to introduce the reader to the applications of Time Series Analysis techniques to Nuclear Material Accountability data. Time series analysis techniques are designed to extract information from a collection of random variables ordered by time by seeking to identify any trends, patterns, or other structure in the series. Since nuclear material accountability data is a time series, one can extract more information using time series analysis techniques than by using other statistical techniques. Specifically, the objective of this document is to examine the applicability of time series analysis techniques to enhance loss detection of special nuclear materials. An introductory section examines the current industry approach which utilizes inventory differences. The error structure of inventory differences is presented. Time series analysis techniques discussed include the Shewhart Control Chart, the Cumulative Summation of Inventory Differences Statistics (CUSUM) and the Kalman Filter and Linear Smoother

EXPERIMENTAL VALIDATION OF CUMULATIVE SURFACE LOCATION ERROR FOR TURNING PROCESSES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam K. Kiss

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to create a mechanical model which is suitable to investigate the surface quality in turning processes, based on the Cumulative Surface Location Error (CSLE, which describes the series of the consecutive Surface Location Errors (SLE in roughing operations. In the established model, the investigated CSLE depends on the currently and the previously resulted SLE by means of the variation of the width of cut. The phenomenon of the system can be described as an implicit discrete map. The stationary Surface Location Error and its bifurcations were analysed and flip-type bifurcation was observed for CSLE. Experimental verification of the theoretical results was carried out.

The paca that roared: Immediate cumulative semantic interference among newly acquired words.

Science.gov (United States)

Oppenheim, Gary M

2018-08-01

With 40,000 words in the average vocabulary, how can speakers find the specific words that they want so quickly and easily? Cumulative semantic interference in language production provides a clue: when naming a large series of pictures, with a few mammals sprinkled about, naming each subsequent mammal becomes slower and more error-prone. Such interference mirrors predictions from an incremental learning algorithm applied to meaning-driven retrieval from an established vocabulary, suggesting retrieval benefits from a constant, implicit, re-optimization process (Oppenheim et al., 2010). But how quickly would a new mammal (e.g. paca) engage in this re-optimization? In this experiment, 18 participants studied 3 novel and 3 familiar exemplars from each of six semantic categories, and immediately performed a timed picture-naming task. Consistent with the learning model's predictions, naming latencies revealed immediate cumulative semantic interference in all directions: from new words to new words, from new words to old words, from old words to new words, and from old words to old words. Repeating the procedure several days later produced similar-magnitude effects, demonstrating that newly acquired words can be immediately semantically integrated, at least to the extent necessary to produce typical cumulative semantic interference. These findings extend the Dark Side model's scope to include novel word production, and are considered in terms of mechanisms for lexical selection. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dysglycemia and Index60 as Prediagnostic End Points for Type 1 Diabetes Prevention Trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Nathan, Brandon M; Boulware, David; Geyer, Susan; Atkinson, Mark A; Colman, Peter; Goland, Robin; Russell, William; Wentworth, John M; Wilson, Darrell M; Evans-Molina, Carmella; Wherrett, Diane; Skyler, Jay S; Moran, Antoinette; Sosenko, Jay M

2017-11-01

We assessed dysglycemia and a T1D Diagnostic Index60 (Index60) ≥1.00 (on the basis of fasting C-peptide, 60-min glucose, and 60-min C-peptide levels) as prediagnostic end points for type 1 diabetes among Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study participants. Two cohorts were analyzed: 1 ) baseline normoglycemic oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) with an incident dysglycemic OGTT and 2 ) baseline Index60 <1.00 OGTTs with an incident Index60 ≥1.00 OGTT. Incident dysglycemic OGTTs were divided into those with (DYS/IND+) and without (DYS/IND-) concomitant Index60 ≥1.00. Incident Index60 ≥1.00 OGTTs were divided into those with (IND/DYS+) and without (IND/DYS-) concomitant dysglycemia. The cumulative incidence for type 1 diabetes was greater after IND/DYS- than after DYS/IND- ( P < 0.01). Within the normoglycemic cohort, the cumulative incidence of type 1 diabetes was higher after DYS/IND+ than after DYS/IND- ( P < 0.001), whereas within the Index60 <1.00 cohort, the cumulative incidence after IND/DYS+ and after IND/DYS- did not differ significantly. Among nonprogressors, type 1 diabetes risk at the last OGTT was greater for IND/DYS- than for DYS/IND- ( P < 0.001). Hazard ratios (HRs) of DYS/IND- with age and 30- to 0-min C-peptide were positive ( P < 0.001 for both), whereas HRs of type 1 diabetes with these variables were inverse ( P < 0.001 for both). In contrast, HRs of IND/DYS- and type 1 diabetes with age and 30- to 0-min C-peptide were consistent (all inverse [ P < 0.01 for all]). The findings suggest that incident dysglycemia without Index60 ≥1.00 is a suboptimal prediagnostic end point for type 1 diabetes. Measures that include both glucose and C-peptide levels, such as Index60 ≥1.00, appear better suited as prediagnostic end points. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

Managing cumulative impacts: A key to sustainability?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunsaker, C.T.

1994-12-31

This paper addresses how science can be more effectively used in creating policy to manage cumulative effects on ecosystems. The paper focuses on the scientific techniques that we have to identify and to assess cumulative impacts on ecosystems. The term ``sustainable development`` was brought into common use by the World Commission on Environment and Development (The Brundtland Commission) in 1987. The Brundtland Commission report highlighted the need to simultaneously address developmental and environmental imperatives simultaneously by calling for development that ``meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the needs of future generations.`` We cannot claim to be working toward sustainable development until we can quantitatively assess cumulative impacts on the environment: The two concepts are inextricibally linked in that the elusiveness of cumulative effects likely has the greatest potential of keeping us from achieving sustainability. In this paper, assessment and management frameworks relevant to cumulative impacts are discussed along with recent literature on how to improve such assessments. When possible, examples are given for marine ecosystems.

Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals. Cumulative Issue January - December 1972. Volume 23, Number 4

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Rucks, Frances

1972-01-01

The Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals is a subject index to significant articles, news items and editorials appearing in 65 English language military and aeronautical periodicals...

Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals. Cumulative Issue January-December 1980. Volume 31, Number 4

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Rucks, Frances

1980-01-01

The Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals is a subject index to significant articles, news items and editorials appearing in 73 English language military and aeronautical periodicals...

Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals. Cumulative Issue January - December 1979. Volume 30, Number 4

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

1979-01-01

The Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals is a subject index to significant articles, news items and editorials appearing in 68 English language military and aeronautical periodicals...

Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals. Cumulative Issue January - December 1985. Volume 36, Number 4

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Goodman, A

1985-01-01

The Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals is a subject index to significant articles, news items, and editorials appearing in 76 English language military and aeronautical periodicals...

Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals. Cumulative Issue January - December 1982. Volume 33, Number 4

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hatton, Jackie

1982-01-01

The Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals is a subject index to significant articles, news items, and editorials appearing in 76 English language military and aeronautical periodicals...

Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals. Cumulative Issue January - December 1975. Volume 26, Number 4

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Rucks, Frances

1975-01-01

The Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals is a subject index to significant articles, news items and editorials appearing in 67 English language military and aeronautical periodicals...

Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals. Cumulative Issue January-December 1981. Volume 32, Number 4

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

1981-01-01

The Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals is a subject index to significant articles, news items and editorials appearing in 72 English language military and aeronautical periodicals...

Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals. Cumulative Issue January - December 1974. Volume 25, Number 4

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Rucks, Frances

1974-01-01

The Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals is a subject index to significant articles, news items and editorials appearing in 65 English language military and aeronautical periodicals...

Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals. Cumulative Issue January-December 1978. Volume 29, Number 4

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Rucks, Frances

1978-01-01

The Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals is a subject index to significant articles, news items and editorials appearing in 68 English language military and aeronautical periodicals...

Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals. Cumulative Issue January - December 1988. Volume 39, Number 4

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Adams, Emily

1988-01-01

The Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals is a subject index to significant articles, news items, and editorials appearing in 77 English language military and aeronautical periodicals...

Multi-load Optimal Design of Burner-inner-liner Under Performance Index Constraint by Second-Order Polynomial Taylor Series Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tu Gaoqiao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Using maximum expansion pressure of n-decane, the aeroengine burner-inner-liner combustion pressure load is computed. Aerodynamic loads are obtained from internal gas pressure load and gas momentum. Multi-load second-order Taylor series equations are established using multi-variant polynomials and their sensitivities. Optimal designs are carried out using various performance index constraints. When 0.25 to 0.8 rectifications of different design variants are implemented, they converge under 5×10‒4 d-norm difference ratio.

Lower cumulative stress is associated with better health for physically active adults in the community

Science.gov (United States)

Stults-Kolehmainen, Matthew A.; Tuit, Keri; Sinha, Rajita

2015-01-01

Both cumulative adversity, an individual's lifetime exposure to stressors, and insufficient exercise are associated with poor health outcomes. The purpose of this study was to ascertain whether exercise buffers the association of cumulative adverse life events (CALE) with health in a community-wide sample of healthy adults (ages 18–50 years; women: n 219, 29.5 ± 9.2 years; men: n = 176, 29.4 ± 8.7 years, mean ± standard deviation). Participants underwent the Cumulative Adversity Interview, which divides life events into three subsets: major life events (MLE), recent life events (RLE) and traumatic experiences (TLE). These individuals also completed the Cornell Medical Index and a short assessment for moderate or greater intensity exercise behavior, modified from the Nurses’ Health Study. Results indicated that higher CALE was associated with greater total health problems (r = 0.431, pstress and exercise were not apparent for RLE and TLE. However, at low levels of MLE, greater exercise was related to fewer total, physical, cardiovascular and psychological health problems (p valuestress. Increased levels of exercise were related to better physical health in men, at all levels of CALE. Only women who reported both low levels of CALE and high levels of exercise had more favorable physical health outcomes. A similar pattern of results emerged for RLE. Together, these data suggest that increased exercise is related to better health, but these effects may vary by cumulative stress exposure and sex. PMID:24392966

Reliability testing across the Environmental Quality Index and national environmental indices.

Science.gov (United States)

One challenge in environmental epidemiology is the exploration of cumulative environmental exposure across multiple domains (e.g. air, water, land). The Environmental Quality Index (EQI), created by the U.S. EPA, uses principle component analyses combining environmental domains (...

Biweekly list of papers on radiation chemistry. Annual cumulation with keyword and author indexes. Volume 9

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1976-01-01

The reference lists and indexes are generated from a computer-searchable bibliographic data base; an indexing program collects and alphabetizes authors' names and keywords and correlates them with reference numbers

Proposal for Standard Index and Analysis of Financial Performance in 2014 of Brazilian Soccer Clubs of Serie A

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael da Costa Jahara

2017-02-01

Full Text Available This study aims to develop a standard index for analysis of the financial performance of the football clubs of Brazil who participated in the series in the year 2014. To prepare the standard index are used economic and financial indicators of liquidity, profitability and debt, as well solvency analysis of the clubs by using the Kanitz model. Based on studies on standard indices to compare the performance of companies were selected for the analysis of balance sheets and statements of income twenty clubs. This study is classified as a descriptive exploratory research, multicases and quantitative approach because the document analysis, on the information that was extracted from financial reports, published on the websites of the respective soccer clubs. As a result, you can see that the clubs generally have poor performance when individually analyzed in both the analysis of liquidity indicators, indebtedness, profitability and solvency. However, such a result can not explain the competitive performance of the teams in that league.

El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dugand Armando

1944-03-01

Full Text Available Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin duda alguna al A. Dugandii StandI. Por otra parte, Santiago Cortés (FI. Colomb. 206. 1898; ed, 2: 239. 1912 cita el Cumulá "de Anapoima y otros lugares del (rio Magdalena" diciendo que pertenece a las Leguminosas, pero la brevísima descripción que este autor hace de la madera "naranjada y notable por densidad, dureza y resistencia a la humedad", me induce a creer que se trata del mismo Cumula coleccionado recientemente en Tocaima, ya que esta población esta situada a pocos kilómetros de Anapoima. Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin

Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability by Direct Binomial Regression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard......Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard...

7 CFR 42.132 - Determining cumulative sum values.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Determining cumulative sum values. 42.132 Section 42... Determining cumulative sum values. (a) The parameters for the on-line cumulative sum sampling plans for AQL's... 3 1 2.5 3 1 2 1 (b) At the beginning of the basic inspection period, the CuSum value is set equal to...

The Algebra of the Cumulative Percent Operation.

Science.gov (United States)

Berry, Andrew J.

2002-01-01

Discusses how to help students avoid some pervasive reasoning errors in solving cumulative percent problems. Discusses the meaning of ."%+b%." the additive inverse of ."%." and other useful applications. Emphasizes the operational aspect of the cumulative percent concept. (KHR)

Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal): Annual compilation for 1994. Volume 19, Number 4

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-03-01

This compilation consists of bibliographic data and abstracts for the formal regulatory and technical reports issued by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Staff and its contractors. It is NRC`s intention to publish this compilation quarterly and to cumulate it annually. The main citations and abstracts in this compilation are listed in NUREG number order. These precede the following indexes: secondary report number index, personal author index, subject index, NRC originating organization index (staff reports), NRC originating organization index (international agreements), NRC contract sponsor index (contractor reports), contractor index, international organization index, and licensed facility index. A detailed explanation of the entries precedes each index.

1960-69 Cumulative Index of Articles Related to Oceanography and Limnology Education in The Science Teacher.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Maxwell

Indexed are articles relating to oceanography and limnology published in "The Science Teacher" between 1960 and 1969. Articles are indexed under title, author, and topic. Topics include background information, course descriptions, and laboratory equipment and techniques. (EB)

Probabilistic assessment of the cumulative dietary acute exposure of the population of Denmark to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Bodil Hamborg; Petersen, Annette; Christensen, Tue

2009-01-01

and methamidophos. RPF values derived from the literature were used in the calculations. We calculated the cumulative acute exposure to 1.8% and 0.8% of the acute reference dose (ARfD) of 100 mu g kg(-1) body weight (bw) day(-1) of chlorpyrifos as an index compound at the 99.9th percentile (P99.5) for children...

Language production in a shared task: Cumulative semantic interference from self- and other-produced context words

OpenAIRE

Hoedemaker, R.; Ernst, J.; Meyer, A.; Belke, E.

2017-01-01

This study assessed the effects of semantic context in the form of self-produced and other-produced words on subsequent language production. Pairs of participants performed a joint picture naming task, taking turns while naming a continuous series of pictures. In the single-speaker version of this paradigm, naming latencies have been found to increase for successive presentations of exemplars from the same category, a phenomenon known as Cumulative Semantic Interference (CSI). As expected, th...

The impact of socially responsible investment index constituent announcements on firm price: evidence from the JSE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chimwemwe Chipeta

2012-11-01

Full Text Available This paper examines whether Socially Responsible Investment (SRI Index constituent announcements have any impact on the returns of firms listing on the JSE SRI Index. The event study methodology is utilised to estimate abnormal returns for the firms included in the Index. The results indicate insignificant average abnormal returns (AARs for the years 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009, suggesting no significant shareholder gains over the entire event window. However, the year 2005 is associated with positive and significant abnormal returns. Post announcement cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs are positive for the years 2005 and 2007. However, the year 2008 exhibited extreme swings in CAARs with a general declining trend in the latter part of the event window. These swings are attributed to the global financial crisis of 2008. Furthermore, the cumulative returns for the total sample show no clear outperformance of the SRI over the JSE All Share Index.

EXAFS cumulants of CdSe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diop, D.

1997-04-01

EXAFS functions had been extracted from measurements on the K edge of Se at different temperatures between 20 and 300 K. The analysis of the EXAFS of the filtered first two shells has been done in the wavevector range laying between 2 and 15.5 A -1 in terms of the cumulants of the effective distribution of distances. The cumulants C 3 and C 4 obtained from the phase difference and the amplitude ratio methods have shown the anharmonicity in the vibrations of atoms around their equilibrium position. (author). 13 refs, 3 figs

The injury and cumulative effects on human skin by UV exposure from artificial fluorescence emission.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Yan; Liu, Wei; Niu, TianHui; Dai, CaiHong; Li, Xiaoxin; Cui, Caijuan; Zhao, Xinyan; E, Yaping; Lu, Hui

2014-01-01

The injury and cumulative effects of UV emission from fluorescence lamp were studied. UV intensity from fluorescence lamp was measured, and human skin samples (hips, 10 volunteers) were exposed to low-dose UV irradiation (three times per week for 13 consecutive weeks). Three groups were examined: control group without UV radiation; low-dose group with a cumulative dose of 50 J cm(-2) which was equivalent to irradiation of the face during indoor work for 1.5 years; and high-dose group with 1000 J cm(-2) cumulative dose equivalent to irradiation of the face during outdoor activities for 1 year. Specific indicators were measured before and after UVA irradiation. The findings showed that extending the low-dose UVA exposure decreased the skin moisture content and increased the transepidermal water loss as well as induced skin color changes (decreased L* value, increased M index). Furthermore, irradiated skin showed an increased thickness of cuticle and epidermis, skin edema, light color and unclear staining collagen fibers in the dermis, and elastic fiber fragmentation. In addition, MMP-1, p53 and SIRT1 expression was also increased. Long-term exposure of low-dose UVA radiation enhanced skin photoaging. The safety of the fluorescent lamp needs our attention. © 2014 The American Society of Photobiology.

Scalable Prediction of Energy Consumption using Incremental Time Series Clustering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simmhan, Yogesh; Noor, Muhammad Usman

2013-10-09

Time series datasets are a canonical form of high velocity Big Data, and often generated by pervasive sensors, such as found in smart infrastructure. Performing predictive analytics on time series data can be computationally complex, and requires approximation techniques. In this paper, we motivate this problem using a real application from the smart grid domain. We propose an incremental clustering technique, along with a novel affinity score for determining cluster similarity, which help reduce the prediction error for cumulative time series within a cluster. We evaluate this technique, along with optimizations, using real datasets from smart meters, totaling ~700,000 data points, and show the efficacy of our techniques in improving the prediction error of time series data within polynomial time.

Repeated exposure to high-frequency spanking and child externalizing behavior across the first decade: a moderating role for cumulative risk.

Science.gov (United States)

MacKenzie, Michael J; Nicklas, Eric; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne; Waldfogel, Jane

2014-12-01

This study used the Fragile Families and Child Well-Being Study to examine the effects of repeated exposure to harsh parenting on child externalizing behavior across the first decade of life, and a moderating role for cumulative ecological risk. Maternal report of harsh parenting, defined as high frequency spanking, was assessed at age 1, 3, 5, and 9, along with child externalizing at age 9 (N=2,768). Controlling for gender, race, maternal nativity, and city of residence, we found a cumulative risk index to significantly moderate the effects of repeated harsh parenting on child behavior, with the effects of repeated high-frequency spanking being amplified for those experiencing greater levels of cumulative risk. Harsh parenting, in the form of high frequency spanking, remains a too common experience for children, and results demonstrate that the effects of repeated exposure to harsh parenting across the first decade are amplified for those children already facing the most burden. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Cumulative Student Loan Debt in Minnesota, 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Williams-Wyche, Shaun

2016-01-01

To better understand student debt in Minnesota, the Minnesota Office of Higher Education (the Office) gathers information on cumulative student loan debt from Minnesota degree-granting institutions. These data detail the number of students with loans by institution, the cumulative student loan debt incurred at that institution, and the percentage…

The Gaussian copula model for the joint deficit index for droughts

Science.gov (United States)

Van de Vyver, H.; Van den Bergh, J.

2018-06-01

The characterization of droughts and their impacts is very dependent on the time scale that is involved. In order to obtain an overall drought assessment, the cumulative effects of water deficits over different times need to be examined together. For example, the recently developed joint deficit index (JDI) is based on multivariate probabilities of precipitation over various time scales from 1- to 12-months, and was constructed from empirical copulas. In this paper, we examine the Gaussian copula model for the JDI. We model the covariance across the temporal scales with a two-parameter function that is commonly used in the specific context of spatial statistics or geostatistics. The validity of the covariance models is demonstrated with long-term precipitation series. Bootstrap experiments indicate that the Gaussian copula model has advantages over the empirical copula method in the context of drought severity assessment: (i) it is able to quantify droughts outside the range of the empirical copula, (ii) provides adequate drought quantification, and (iii) provides a better understanding of the uncertainty in the estimation.

Consumption of fruits and vegetables and probabilistic assessment of the cumulative acute exposure to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides of schoolchildren in Slovenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Blaznik, Urška; Yngve, Agneta; Eržen, Ivan; Hlastan Ribič, Cirila

2016-02-01

Adequate consumption of fruits and vegetables is a part of recommendations for a healthy diet. The aim of the present study was to assess acute cumulative dietary exposure to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides via fruit and vegetable consumption by the population of schoolchildren aged 11-12 years and the level of risk for their health. Cumulative probabilistic risk assessment methodology with the index compound approach was applied. Slovenia, primary schools. Schoolchildren (n 1145) from thirty-one primary schools in Slovenia. Children were part of the PRO GREENS study 2009/10 which assessed 11-year-olds' consumption of fruit and vegetables in ten European countries. The cumulative acute exposure amounted to 8.3 (95% CI 7.7, 10.6) % of the acute reference dose (ARfD) for acephate as index compound (100 µg/kg body weight per d) at the 99.9th percentile for daily intake and to 4.5 (95% CI 3.5, 4.7) % of the ARfD at the 99.9th percentile for intakes during school time and at lunch. Apples, bananas, oranges and lettuce contributed most to the total acute pesticides intake. The estimations showed that acute dietary exposure to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides is not a health concern for schoolchildren with the assessed dietary patterns of fruit and vegetable consumption.

Extreme value theory applied to the standardized precipitation index - doi: 10.4025/actascitechnol.v36i1.17475

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel Constantino Blain

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI is a mathematical algorithm developed for detecting and characterizing precipitation departures with regard to an expected regional climate condition. Thus, this study aimed to verify the possibility of using the time-independent general extreme value distribution (GEV for modeling the probability of occurrence of both SPI annual maxima (the maximum monthly SPI value; SPImax and SPI annual minima (the minimum monthly SPI value; SPImim obtained from the weather station of Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1891-2011 and to evaluate the presence of trends, temporal persistence and periodical components in these two datasets. The goodness-of-fit tests used in this study quantify the agreement between the empirical cumulative distribution and the GEV cumulative function. Our results have indicated that such parametric function can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of SPImin and SPImax values. No significant serial correlation and no trend were detected in both series. For the SPImim, the wavelet analysis has detected a dominant mode in the 4-8 year band. Future studies should focus on the development of a GEV model capable of accounting for such feature. No dominant mode was found for the annual monthly SPI maximums.

High cumulants of conserved charges and their statistical uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Li-Zhu, Chen; Ye-Yin, Zhao; Xue, Pan; Zhi-Ming, Li; Yuan-Fang, Wu

2017-10-01

We study the influence of measured high cumulants of conserved charges on their associated statistical uncertainties in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. With a given number of events, the measured cumulants randomly fluctuate with an approximately normal distribution, while the estimated statistical uncertainties are found to be correlated with corresponding values of the obtained cumulants. Generally, with a given number of events, the larger the cumulants we measure, the larger the statistical uncertainties that are estimated. The error-weighted averaged cumulants are dependent on statistics. Despite this effect, however, it is found that the three sigma rule of thumb is still applicable when the statistics are above one million. Supported by NSFC (11405088, 11521064, 11647093), Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (2014CB845402) and Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST) (2016YFE0104800)

Cumulative stress and autonomic dysregulation in a community sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Lampert, Rachel; Tuit, Keri; Hong, Kwang-Ik; Donovan, Theresa; Lee, Forrester; Sinha, Rajita

2016-05-01

Whether cumulative stress, including both chronic stress and adverse life events, is associated with decreased heart rate variability (HRV), a non-invasive measure of autonomic status which predicts poor cardiovascular outcomes, is unknown. Healthy community dwelling volunteers (N = 157, mean age 29 years) participated in the Cumulative Stress/Adversity Interview (CAI), a 140-item event interview measuring cumulative adversity including major life events, life trauma, recent life events and chronic stressors, and underwent 24-h ambulatory ECG monitoring. HRV was analyzed in the frequency domain and standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN) calculated. Initial simple regression analyses revealed that total cumulative stress score, chronic stressors and cumulative adverse life events (CALE) were all inversely associated with ultra low-frequency (ULF), very low-frequency (VLF) and low-frequency (LF) power and SDNN (all p accounting for additional appreciable variance. For VLF and LF, both total cumulative stress and chronic stress significantly contributed to the variance alone but were not longer significant after adjusting for race and health behaviors. In summary, total cumulative stress, and its components of adverse life events and chronic stress were associated with decreased cardiac autonomic function as measured by HRV. Findings suggest one potential mechanism by which stress may exert adverse effects on mortality in healthy individuals. Primary preventive strategies including stress management may prove beneficial.

Cumulative processes and quark distribution in nuclei

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kondratyuk, L.; Shmatikov, M.

1984-01-01

Assuming existence of multiquark (mainly 12q) bags in nuclei the spectra of cumulative nucleons and mesons produced in high-energy particle-nucleus collisions are discussed. The exponential form of quark momentum distribution in 12q-bag (agreeing well with the experimental data on lepton-nucleus interactions at large q 2 ) is shown to result in quasi-exponential distribution of cumulative particles over the light-cone variable αsub(B). The dependence of f(αsub(B); psub(perpendicular)) (where psub(perpendicular) is the transverse momentum of the bag) upon psub(perpendicular) is considered. The yields of cumulative resonances as well as effects related to the u- and d-quark distributions in N > Z nuclei being different are dicscussed

Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability: Marginal and Cause-Specific Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

2005-01-01

cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling......cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling...

Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

2000-01-01

Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

77 FR 49839 - IndexIQ Advisors LLC and IndexIQ Active ETF Trust; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-17

... Advisors LLC and IndexIQ Active ETF Trust; Notice of Application August 13, 2012. AGENCY: Securities and... IndexIQ Active ETF Trust (the ``Trust''). SUMMARY OF APPLICATION: Applicants request an order that... series, IQ Global Equity Active ETF (``Global Equity ETF''), IQ Global Fixed Income Active ETF (``Global...

Time Series Momentum

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moskowitz, Tobias J.; Ooi, Yao Hua; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2012-01-01

We document significant “time series momentum” in equity index, currency, commodity, and bond futures for each of the 58 liquid instruments we consider. We find persistence in returns for one to 12 months that partially reverses over longer horizons, consistent with sentiment theories of initial...... under-reaction and delayed over-reaction. A diversified portfolio of time series momentum strategies across all asset classes delivers substantial abnormal returns with little exposure to standard asset pricing factors and performs best during extreme markets. Examining the trading activities...

Original and cumulative prospect theory: a discussion of empirical differences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wakker, P.P.; Fennema, H.

1997-01-01

This note discusses differences between prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory. It shows that cumulative prospect theory is not merely a formal correction of some theoretical problems in prospect theory, but it also gives different predictions. Experiments are described that favor cumulative

Cumulative radiation dose of multiple trauma patients during their hospitalization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Zhikang; Sun Jianzhong; Zhao Zudan

2012-01-01

Objective: To study the cumulative radiation dose of multiple trauma patients during their hospitalization and to analyze the dose influence factors. Methods: The DLP for CT and DR were retrospectively collected from the patients during June, 2009 and April, 2011 at a university affiliated hospital. The cumulative radiation doses were calculated by summing typical effective doses of the anatomic regions scanned. Results: The cumulative radiation doses of 113 patients were collected. The maximum,minimum and the mean values of cumulative effective doses were 153.3, 16.48 mSv and (52.3 ± 26.6) mSv. Conclusions: Multiple trauma patients have high cumulative radiation exposure. Therefore, the management of cumulative radiation doses should be enhanced. To establish the individualized radiation exposure archives will be helpful for the clinicians and technicians to make decision whether to image again and how to select the imaging parameters. (authors)

Perspectives on cumulative risks and impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Faust, John B

2010-01-01

Cumulative risks and impacts have taken on different meanings in different regulatory and programmatic contexts at federal and state government levels. Traditional risk assessment methodologies, with considerable limitations, can provide a framework for the evaluation of cumulative risks from chemicals. Under an environmental justice program in California, cumulative impacts are defined to include exposures, public health effects, or environmental effects in a geographic area from the emission or discharge of environmental pollution from all sources, through all media. Furthermore, the evaluation of these effects should take into account sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors where possible and to the extent data are available. Key aspects to this potential approach include the consideration of exposures (versus risk), socioeconomic factors, the geographic or community-level assessment scale, and the inclusion of not only health effects but also environmental effects as contributors to impact. Assessments of this type extend the boundaries of the types of information that toxicologists generally provide for risk management decisions.

Cumulative particle production in the quark recombination model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gavrilov, V.B.; Leksin, G.A.

1987-01-01

Production of cumulative particles in hadron-nuclear inteactions at high energies is considered within the framework of recombination quark model. Predictions for inclusive cross sections of production of cumulative particles and different resonances containing quarks in s state are made

Computer Courseware Evaluations. January, 1983 to May, 1985. A Series of Reports.

Science.gov (United States)

Alberta Dept. of Education, Edmonton. Curriculum Branch Clearinghouse.

Fourth in a series, this cumulative report reviews Apple computer courseware and some IBM courseware (Business and Math sections) authorized by Alberta Education from January 1983 through May 1985. It provides detailed evaluations of 168 authorized titles in business education (17), computer literacy (12), early childhood education (8), language…

Cumulative radiation exposure in children with cystic fibrosis.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

O'Reilly, R

2010-02-01

This retrospective study calculated the cumulative radiation dose for children with cystic fibrosis (CF) attending a tertiary CF centre. Information on 77 children with a mean age of 9.5 years, a follow up time of 658 person years and 1757 studies including 1485 chest radiographs, 215 abdominal radiographs and 57 computed tomography (CT) scans, of which 51 were thoracic CT scans, were analysed. The average cumulative radiation dose was 6.2 (0.04-25) mSv per CF patient. Cumulative radiation dose increased with increasing age and number of CT scans and was greater in children who presented with meconium ileus. No correlation was identified between cumulative radiation dose and either lung function or patient microbiology cultures. Radiation carries a risk of malignancy and children are particularly susceptible. Every effort must be made to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure in these patients whose life expectancy is increasing.

Measurement of four-particle cumulants and symmetric cumulants with subevent methods in small collision systems with the ATLAS detector

CERN Document Server

Derendarz, Dominik; The ATLAS collaboration

2018-01-01

Measurements of symmetric cumulants SC(n,m)=⟨v2nv2m⟩−⟨v2n⟩⟨v2m⟩ for (n,m)=(2,3) and (2,4) and asymmetric cumulant AC(n) are presented in pp, p+Pb and peripheral Pb+Pb collisions at various collision energies, aiming to probe the long-range collective nature of multi-particle production in small systems. Results are obtained using the standard cumulant method, as well as the two-subevent and three-subevent cumulant methods. Results from the standard method are found to be strongly biased by non-flow correlations as indicated by strong sensitivity to the chosen event class definition. A systematic reduction of non-flow effects is observed when using the two-subevent method and the results become independent of event class definition when the three-subevent method is used. The measured SC(n,m) shows an anti-correlation between v2 and v3, and a positive correlation between v2 and v4. The magnitude of SC(n,m) is constant with Nch in pp collisions, but increases with Nch in p+Pb and Pb+Pb collisions. ...

Online Scheduling in Manufacturing A Cumulative Delay Approach

CERN Document Server

Suwa, Haruhiko

2013-01-01

Online scheduling is recognized as the crucial decision-making process of production control at a phase of “being in production" according to the released shop floor schedule. Online scheduling can be also considered as one of key enablers to realize prompt capable-to-promise as well as available-to-promise to customers along with reducing production lead times under recent globalized competitive markets. Online Scheduling in Manufacturing introduces new approaches to online scheduling based on a concept of cumulative delay. The cumulative delay is regarded as consolidated information of uncertainties under a dynamic environment in manufacturing and can be collected constantly without much effort at any points in time during a schedule execution. In this approach, the cumulative delay of the schedule has the important role of a criterion for making a decision whether or not a schedule revision is carried out. The cumulative delay approach to trigger schedule revisions has the following capabilities for the ...

SERI Biomass Program. FY 1983 annual report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Corder, R.E.; Hill, A.M.; Lindsey, H.; Lowenstein, M.Z.; McIntosh, R.P.

1984-02-01

This report summarizes the progress and research accomplishments of the SERI Biomass Program during FY 1983. The SERI Biomass Program consists of three elements: Aquatic Species, Anaerobic Digestion, and Photo/Biological Hydrogen. Each element has been indexed separately. 2 references, 44 figures, 22 tables.

The cumulative effect of consecutive winters' snow depth on moose and deer populations: a defence

Science.gov (United States)

McRoberts, R.E.; Mech, L.D.; Peterson, R.O.

1995-01-01

1. L. D. Mech et al. presented evidence that moose Alces alces and deer Odocoileus virginianus population parameters re influenced by a cumulative effect of three winters' snow depth. They postulated that snow depth affects adult ungulates cumulatively from winter to winter and results in measurable offspring effects after the third winter. 2. F. Messier challenged those findings and claimed that the population parameters studied were instead affected by ungulate density and wolf indexes. 3. This paper refutes Messier's claims by demonstrating that his results were an artifact of two methodological errors. The first was that, in his main analyses, Messier used only the first previous winter's snow depth rather than the sum of the previous three winters' snow depth, which was the primary point of Mech et al. Secondly, Messier smoothed the ungulate population data, which removed 22-51% of the variability from the raw data. 4. When we repeated Messier's analyses on the raw data and using the sum of the previous three winter's snow depth, his findings did not hold up.

Estimation and Validation of RapidEye-Based Time-Series of Leaf Area Index for Winter Wheat in the Rur Catchment (Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Ali

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Leaf Area Index (LAI is an important variable for numerous processes in various disciplines of bio- and geosciences. In situ measurements are the most accurate source of LAI among the LAI measuring methods, but the in situ measurements have the limitation of being labor intensive and site specific. For spatial-explicit applications (from regional to continental scales, satellite remote sensing is a promising source for obtaining LAI with different spatial resolutions. However, satellite-derived LAI measurements using empirical models require calibration and validation with the in situ measurements. In this study, we attempted to validate a direct LAI retrieval method from remotely sensed images (RapidEye with in situ LAI (LAIdestr. Remote sensing LAI (LAIrapideye were derived using different vegetation indices, namely SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. Additionally, applicability of the newly available red-edge band (RE was also analyzed through Normalized Difference Red-Edge index (NDRE and Soil Adjusted Red-Edge index (SARE. The LAIrapideye obtained from vegetation indices with red-edge band showed better correlation with LAIdestr (r = 0.88 and Root Mean Square Devation, RMSD = 1.01 & 0.92. This study also investigated the need to apply radiometric/atmospheric correction methods to the time-series of RapidEye Level 3A data prior to LAI estimation. Analysis of the the RapidEye Level 3A data set showed that application of the radiometric/atmospheric correction did not improve correlation of the estimated LAI with in situ LAI.

Improving cumulative effects assessment in Alberta: Regional strategic assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, Dallas; Lalonde, Kim; McEachern, Menzie; Kenney, John; Mendoza, Gustavo; Buffin, Andrew; Rich, Kate

2011-01-01

The Government of Alberta, Canada is developing a regulatory framework to better manage cumulative environmental effects from development in the province. A key component of this effort is regional planning, which will lay the primary foundation for cumulative effects management into the future. Alberta Environment has considered the information needs of regional planning and has concluded that Regional Strategic Assessment may offer significant advantages if integrated into the planning process, including the overall improvement of cumulative environmental effects assessment in the province.

A bivariate optimal replacement policy with cumulative repair cost ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Min-Tsai Lai

Shock model; cumulative damage model; cumulative repair cost limit; preventive maintenance model. 1. Introduction ... with two types of shocks: one type is failure shock, and the other type is damage ...... Theory, methods and applications.

On the characterization of vegetation recovery after fire disturbance using Fisher-Shannon analysis and SPOT/VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series

Science.gov (United States)

Lasaponara, Rosa; Lanorte, Antonio; Lovallo, Michele; Telesca, Luciano

2015-04-01

Time series can fruitfully support fire monitoring and management from statistical analysis of fire occurrence (Tuia et al. 2008) to danger estimation (lasaponara 2005), damage evaluation (Lanorte et al 2014) and post fire recovery (Lanorte et al. 2014). In this paper, the time dynamics of SPOT-VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series are analyzed by using the statistical approach of the Fisher-Shannon (FS) information plane to assess and monitor vegetation recovery after fire disturbance. Fisher-Shannon information plane analysis allows us to gain insight into the complex structure of a time series to quantify its degree of organization and order. The analysis was carried out using 10-day Maximum Value Composites of NDVI (MVC-NDVI) with a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution. The investigation was performed on two test sites located in Galizia (North Spain) and Peloponnese (South Greece), selected for the vast fires which occurred during the summer of 2006 and 2007 and for their different vegetation covers made up mainly of low shrubland in Galizia test site and evergreen forest in Peloponnese. Time series of MVC-NDVI have been analyzed before and after the occurrence of the fire events. Results obtained for both the investigated areas clearly pointed out that the dynamics of the pixel time series before the occurrence of the fire is characterized by a larger degree of disorder and uncertainty; while the pixel time series after the occurrence of the fire are featured by a higher degree of organization and order. In particular, regarding the Peloponneso fire, such discrimination is more evident than in the Galizia fire. This suggests a clear possibility to discriminate the different post-fire behaviors and dynamics exhibited by the different vegetation covers. Reference Lanorte A, R Lasaponara, M Lovallo, L Telesca 2014 Fisher-Shannon information plane analysis of SPOT/VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series to

Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal): Compilation for third quarter 1996 July--September. Volume 21, Number 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-02-01

This compilation consists of bibliographic data and abstracts for the formal regulatory and technical reports issued by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Staff and its contractors. It is NRC`s intention to publish this compilation quarterly and to cumulate it annually. The main citations and abstracts in this compilation are listed in NUREG number order: NUREG-XXXX, NUREG/CP-XXXX, NUREG/CR-XXXX, and NUREG/IA-XXXX. These precede the following indexes: secondary report number index; personal author index; subject index; NRC originating organization index (staff reports); NRC originating organization index (international agreements); NRC contract sponsor index (contractor reports); contractor index; international organization index; and licensed facility index. A detailed explanation of the entries precedes each index.

Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal): Compilation for third quarter 1994, July--September. Volume 19, Number 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1994-12-01

This compilation consists of bibliographic data and abstracts for the formal regulatory and technical reports issues by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Staff and its contractors. It is NRC`s intention to publish this compilation quarterly and to cumulate it annually. The main citations and abstracts in this compilation are listed in NUREG number order: NUREG-XXXX, NUREG/CP-XXXX, NUREG/CR-XXXX, and NUREG/IA-XXXX. These precede the following indexes: Secondary Report Number Index, Personal Author Index, Subject Index, NRC Originating Organization Index (Staff Reports), NRC Originating Organization Index (International Agreements), NRC Contract Sponsor Index (Contractor Reports) Contractor Index, International Organization Index, Licensed Facility Index. A detailed explanation of the entries precedes each index.

Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal): Compilation for third quarter 1996 July--September. Volume 21, Number 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-02-01

This compilation consists of bibliographic data and abstracts for the formal regulatory and technical reports issued by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Staff and its contractors. It is NRC's intention to publish this compilation quarterly and to cumulate it annually. The main citations and abstracts in this compilation are listed in NUREG number order: NUREG-XXXX, NUREG/CP-XXXX, NUREG/CR-XXXX, and NUREG/IA-XXXX. These precede the following indexes: secondary report number index; personal author index; subject index; NRC originating organization index (staff reports); NRC originating organization index (international agreements); NRC contract sponsor index (contractor reports); contractor index; international organization index; and licensed facility index. A detailed explanation of the entries precedes each index

Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal): Compilation for third quarter 1994, July--September. Volume 19, Number 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-12-01

This compilation consists of bibliographic data and abstracts for the formal regulatory and technical reports issues by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Staff and its contractors. It is NRC's intention to publish this compilation quarterly and to cumulate it annually. The main citations and abstracts in this compilation are listed in NUREG number order: NUREG-XXXX, NUREG/CP-XXXX, NUREG/CR-XXXX, and NUREG/IA-XXXX. These precede the following indexes: Secondary Report Number Index, Personal Author Index, Subject Index, NRC Originating Organization Index (Staff Reports), NRC Originating Organization Index (International Agreements), NRC Contract Sponsor Index (Contractor Reports) Contractor Index, International Organization Index, Licensed Facility Index. A detailed explanation of the entries precedes each index

Using Page’s cumulative sum test on MODIS time series to detect land-cover changes

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Grobler, TL

2012-01-01

Full Text Available by natural vegetation using 500-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer time-series satellite data. The method is a sequential per-pixel change alarm algorithm that can take into account positive detection delay, probability of detection, and false...

Time-series prediction and applications a machine intelligence approach

CERN Document Server

Konar, Amit

2017-01-01

This book presents machine learning and type-2 fuzzy sets for the prediction of time-series with a particular focus on business forecasting applications. It also proposes new uncertainty management techniques in an economic time-series using type-2 fuzzy sets for prediction of the time-series at a given time point from its preceding value in fluctuating business environments. It employs machine learning to determine repetitively occurring similar structural patterns in the time-series and uses stochastic automaton to predict the most probabilistic structure at a given partition of the time-series. Such predictions help in determining probabilistic moves in a stock index time-series Primarily written for graduate students and researchers in computer science, the book is equally useful for researchers/professionals in business intelligence and stock index prediction. A background of undergraduate level mathematics is presumed, although not mandatory, for most of the sections. Exercises with tips are provided at...

Forest fire danger index based on modifying Nesterov Index, fuel, and anthropogenic activities using MODIS TERRA, AQUA and TRMM satellite datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Suresh Babu, K. V.; Roy, Arijit; Ramachandra Prasad, P.

2016-05-01

Forest fire has been regarded as one of the major causes of degradation of Himalayan forests in Uttarakhand. Forest fires occur annually in more than 50% of forests in Uttarakhand state, mostly due to anthropogenic activities and spreads due to moisture conditions and type of forest fuels. Empirical drought indices such as Keetch-Byram drought index, the Nesterov index, Modified Nesterov index, the Zhdanko index which belongs to the cumulative type and the Angstrom Index which belongs to the daily type have been used throughout the world to assess the potential fire danger. In this study, the forest fire danger index has been developed from slightly modified Nesterov index, fuel and anthropogenic activities. Datasets such as MODIS TERRA Land Surface Temperature and emissivity (MOD11A1), MODIS AQUA Atmospheric profile product (MYD07) have been used to determine the dew point temperature and land surface temperature. Precipitation coefficient has been computed from Tropical Rainfall measuring Mission (TRMM) product (3B42RT). Nesterov index has been slightly modified according to the Indian context and computed using land surface temperature, dew point temperature and precipitation coefficient. Fuel type danger index has been derived from forest type map of ISRO based on historical fire location information and disturbance danger index has been derived from disturbance map of ISRO. Finally, forest fire danger index has been developed from the above mentioned indices and MODIS Thermal anomaly product (MOD14) has been used for validating the forest fire danger index.

Wheat Yield Forecasting for Punjab Province from Vegetation Index Time Series and Historic Crop Statistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Dempewolf

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Policy makers, government planners and agricultural market participants in Pakistan require accurate and timely information about wheat yield and production. Punjab Province is by far the most important wheat producing region in the country. The manual collection of field data and data processing for crop forecasting by the provincial government requires significant amounts of time before official reports can be released. Several studies have shown that wheat yield can be effectively forecast using satellite remote sensing data. In this study, we developed a methodology for estimating wheat yield and area for Punjab Province from freely available Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery approximately six weeks before harvest. Wheat yield was derived by regressing reported yield values against time series of four different peak-season MODIS-derived vegetation indices. We also tested deriving wheat area from the same MODIS time series using a regression-tree approach. Among the four evaluated indices, WDRVI provided more consistent and accurate yield forecasts compared to NDVI, EVI2 and saturation-adjusted normalized difference vegetation index (SANDVI. The lowest RMSE values at the district level for forecast versus reported yield were found when using six or more years of training data. Forecast yield for the 2007/2008 to 2012/2013 growing seasons were within 0.2% and 11.5% of final reported values. Absolute deviations of wheat area and production forecasts from reported values were slightly greater compared to using the previous year's or the three- or six-year moving average values, implying that 250-m MODIS data does not provide sufficient spatial resolution for providing improved wheat area and production forecasts.

An evaluation paradigm for cumulative impact analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

1988-09-01

Cumulative impact analysis is examined from a conceptual decision-making perspective, focusing on its implicit and explicit purposes as suggested within the policy and procedures for environmental impact analysis of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and its implementing regulations. In this article it is also linked to different evaluation and decision-making conventions, contrasting a regulatory context with a comprehensive planning framework. The specific problems that make the application of cumulative impact analysis a virtually intractable evaluation requirement are discussed in connection with the federal regulation of wetlands uses. The relatively familiar US Army Corps of Engineers' (the Corps) permit program, in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) responsibilities in managing its share of the Section 404 regulatory program requirements, is used throughout as the realistic context for highlighting certain pragmatic evaluation aspects of cumulative impact assessment. To understand the purposes of cumulative impact analysis (CIA), a key distinction must be made between the implied comprehensive and multiobjective evaluation purposes of CIA, promoted through the principles and policies contained in NEPA, and the more commonly conducted and limited assessment of cumulative effects (ACE), which focuses largely on the ecological effects of human actions. Based on current evaluation practices within the Corps' and EPA's permit programs, it is shown that the commonly used screening approach to regulating wetlands uses is not compatible with the purposes of CIA, nor is the environmental impact statement (EIS) an appropriate vehicle for evaluating the variety of objectives and trade-offs needed as part of CIA. A heuristic model that incorporates the basic elements of CIA is developed, including the idea of trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental protection goals carried out within the context of environmental

Data mining in time series databases

CERN Document Server

Kandel, Abraham; Bunke, Horst

2004-01-01

Adding the time dimension to real-world databases produces Time SeriesDatabases (TSDB) and introduces new aspects and difficulties to datamining and knowledge discovery. This book covers the state-of-the-artmethodology for mining time series databases. The novel data miningmethods presented in the book include techniques for efficientsegmentation, indexing, and classification of noisy and dynamic timeseries. A graph-based method for anomaly detection in time series isdescribed and the book also studies the implications of a novel andpotentially useful representation of time series as strings. Theproblem of detecting changes in data mining models that are inducedfrom temporal databases is additionally discussed.

Maintenance hemodialysis patients have high cumulative radiation exposure.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Kinsella, Sinead M

2010-10-01

Hemodialysis is associated with an increased risk of neoplasms which may result, at least in part, from exposure to ionizing radiation associated with frequent radiographic procedures. In order to estimate the average radiation exposure of those on hemodialysis, we conducted a retrospective study of 100 patients in a university-based dialysis unit followed for a median of 3.4 years. The number and type of radiological procedures were obtained from a central radiology database, and the cumulative effective radiation dose was calculated using standardized, procedure-specific radiation levels. The median annual radiation dose was 6.9 millisieverts (mSv) per patient-year. However, 14 patients had an annual cumulative effective radiation dose over 20 mSv, the upper averaged annual limit for occupational exposure. The median total cumulative effective radiation dose per patient over the study period was 21.7 mSv, in which 13 patients had a total cumulative effective radiation dose over 75 mSv, a value reported to be associated with a 7% increased risk of cancer-related mortality. Two-thirds of the total cumulative effective radiation dose was due to CT scanning. The average radiation exposure was significantly associated with the cause of end-stage renal disease, history of ischemic heart disease, transplant waitlist status, number of in-patient hospital days over follow-up, and death during the study period. These results highlight the substantial exposure to ionizing radiation in hemodialysis patients.

CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

Science.gov (United States)

Bowerman, P. N.

1994-01-01

The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

Cumulative effect in multiple production processes on nuclei

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Golubyatnikova, E.S.; Shmonin, V.L.; Kalinkin, B.N.

1989-01-01

It is shown that the cumulative effect is a natural result of the process of hadron multiple production in nuclear reactions. Interpretation is made of the universality of slopes of inclusive spectra and other characteristics of cumulative hadrons. The character of information from such reactions is discussed, which could be helpful in studying the mechanism of multiparticle production. 27 refs.; 4 figs

Time Series Forecasting with Missing Values

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shin-Fu Wu

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Time series prediction has become more popular in various kinds of applications such as weather prediction, control engineering, financial analysis, industrial monitoring, etc. To deal with real-world problems, we are often faced with missing values in the data due to sensor malfunctions or human errors. Traditionally, the missing values are simply omitted or replaced by means of imputation methods. However, omitting those missing values may cause temporal discontinuity. Imputation methods, on the other hand, may alter the original time series. In this study, we propose a novel forecasting method based on least squares support vector machine (LSSVM. We employ the input patterns with the temporal information which is defined as local time index (LTI. Time series data as well as local time indexes are fed to LSSVM for doing forecasting without imputation. We compare the forecasting performance of our method with other imputation methods. Experimental results show that the proposed method is promising and is worth further investigations.

Cumulative burden of lifetime adversities: Trauma and mental health in low-SES African Americans and Latino/as.

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, Hector F; Wyatt, Gail E; Ullman, Jodie B; Loeb, Tamra B; Chin, Dorothy; Prause, Nicole; Zhang, Muyu; Williams, John K; Slavich, George M; Liu, Honghu

2015-05-01

This study examined the utility of a lifetime cumulative adversities and trauma model in predicting the severity of mental health symptoms of depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress disorder. We also tested whether ethnicity and gender moderate the effects of this stress exposure construct on mental health using multigroup structural equation modeling. A sample of 500 low-socioeconomic status African American and Latino men and women with histories of adversities and trauma were recruited and assessed with a standard battery of self-report measures of stress and mental health. Multiple-group structural equation models indicated good overall model fit. As hypothesized, experiences of discrimination, childhood family adversities, childhood sexual abuse, other childhood trauma, and chronic stresses all loaded on the latent cumulative burden of adversities and trauma construct (CBAT). The CBAT stress exposure index in turn predicted the mental health status latent variable. Although there were several significant univariate ethnic and gender differences, and ethnic and gender differences were observed on several paths, there were no significant ethnic differences in the final model fit of the data. These findings highlight the deleterious consequences of cumulative stress and trauma for mental health and underscore a need to assess these constructs in selecting appropriate clinical interventions for reducing mental health disparities and improving human health. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

On nonstationarity and antipersistency in global temperature series

Science.gov (United States)

KäRner, O.

2002-10-01

Statistical analysis is carried out for satellite-based global daily tropospheric and stratospheric temperature anomaly and solar irradiance data sets. Behavior of the series appears to be nonstationary with stationary daily increments. Estimating long-range dependence between the increments reveals a remarkable difference between the two temperature series. Global average tropospheric temperature anomaly behaves similarly to the solar irradiance anomaly. Their daily increments show antipersistency for scales longer than 2 months. The property points at a cumulative negative feedback in the Earth climate system governing the tropospheric variability during the last 22 years. The result emphasizes a dominating role of the solar irradiance variability in variations of the tropospheric temperature and gives no support to the theory of anthropogenic climate change. The global average stratospheric temperature anomaly proceeds like a 1-dim random walk at least up to 11 years, allowing good presentation by means of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for monthly series.

Stochastic generation of hourly wind speed time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shamshad, A.; Wan Mohd Ali Wan Hussin; Bawadi, M.A.; Mohd Sanusi, S.A.

2006-01-01

In the present study hourly wind speed data of Kuala Terengganu in Peninsular Malaysia are simulated by using transition matrix approach of Markovian process. The wind speed time series is divided into various states based on certain criteria. The next wind speed states are selected based on the previous states. The cumulative probability transition matrix has been formed in which each row ends with 1. Using the uniform random numbers between 0 and 1, a series of future states is generated. These states have been converted to the corresponding wind speed values using another uniform random number generator. The accuracy of the model has been determined by comparing the statistical characteristics such as average, standard deviation, root mean square error, probability density function and autocorrelation function of the generated data to those of the original data. The generated wind speed time series data is capable to preserve the wind speed characteristics of the observed data

Towards cheminformatics-based estimation of drug therapeutic index: Predicting the protective index of anticonvulsants using a new quantitative structure-index relationship approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shangying; Zhang, Peng; Liu, Xin; Qin, Chu; Tao, Lin; Zhang, Cheng; Yang, Sheng Yong; Chen, Yu Zong; Chui, Wai Keung

2016-06-01

The overall efficacy and safety profile of a new drug is partially evaluated by the therapeutic index in clinical studies and by the protective index (PI) in preclinical studies. In-silico predictive methods may facilitate the assessment of these indicators. Although QSAR and QSTR models can be used for predicting PI, their predictive capability has not been evaluated. To test this capability, we developed QSAR and QSTR models for predicting the activity and toxicity of anticonvulsants at accuracy levels above the literature-reported threshold (LT) of good QSAR models as tested by both the internal 5-fold cross validation and external validation method. These models showed significantly compromised PI predictive capability due to the cumulative errors of the QSAR and QSTR models. Therefore, in this investigation a new quantitative structure-index relationship (QSIR) model was devised and it showed improved PI predictive capability that superseded the LT of good QSAR models. The QSAR, QSTR and QSIR models were developed using support vector regression (SVR) method with the parameters optimized by using the greedy search method. The molecular descriptors relevant to the prediction of anticonvulsant activities, toxicities and PIs were analyzed by a recursive feature elimination method. The selected molecular descriptors are primarily associated with the drug-like, pharmacological and toxicological features and those used in the published anticonvulsant QSAR and QSTR models. This study suggested that QSIR is useful for estimating the therapeutic index of drug candidates. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

Synergistic effect of cumulative corticosteroid dose and immunosuppressants on avascular necrosis in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, H H; Bang, S Y; Won, S; Park, Y; Yi, J H; Joo, Y B; Lee, H S; Bae, S C

2018-01-01

Objectives Avascular necrosis (AVN) is one of the most common causes of organ damage in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and often causes serious physical disability. The aims of this study were to investigate clinical risk factors associated with symptomatic AVN and to analyze their synergistic effects in a large SLE cohort in Korea. Methods Patients with SLE were enrolled and followed from 1998 to 2014 in the Hanyang BAE Lupus cohort, and damage was measured annually according to the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index (SDI). AVN was confirmed by imaging study if patients had symptoms. To determine risk factors for AVN, clinical, laboratory and therapeutic variables were analyzed by logistic regression. Relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI), attributable proportion (AP), and synergy index (S) were calculated to measure interactions between significant variables. Results Among 1219 SLE patients, symptomatic AVN was the most common type of musculoskeletal damage (10.8%, n = 132). SLE patients with AVN showed an earlier onset age, demonstrated AVN more commonly in conjunction with certain other clinical manifestations such as renal and neuropsychiatric disorders, and received significantly higher total cumulative corticosteroid dose and immunosuppressive agents than did patients without AVN. However, in multivariable analysis, only two variables including use of a cumulative corticosteroid dose greater than 20 g (odds ratio (OR) 3.62, p = 0.015) and use of immunosuppressants including cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil (OR 4.51, p AVN. Patients with cumulative corticosteroid dose > 20 g and immunosuppressant use had a 15.44-fold increased risk for AVN, compared with patients without these risk factors ( p AVN in our Korean lupus cohort. Conclusions An individual risk assessment for AVN development should be made prior to and during treatment for SLE

Dimension Reduction of Multi-Spectral Satellite Image Time Series to Improve Deforestation Monitoring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng Lu

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In recent years, sequential tests for detecting structural changes in time series have been adapted for deforestation monitoring using satellite data. The input time series of such sequential tests is typically a vegetation index (e.g., NDVI, which uses two or three bands and ignores all other bands. Being limited to a vegetation index will not benefit from the richer spectral information provided by newly launched satellites and will bring two bottle-necks for deforestation monitoring. Firstly, it is hard to select a suitable vegetation index a priori. Secondly, a single vegetation index is typically affected by seasonal signals, noise and other natural dynamics, which decrease its power for deforestation detection. A novel multispectral time series change monitoring method that combines dimension reduction methods with a sequential hypothesis test is proposed to address these limitations. For each location, the proposed method automatically chooses a “suitable” index for deforestation monitoring. To demonstrate our approach, we implemented it in two study areas: a dry tropical forest in Bolivia (time series length: 444 with strong seasonality and a moist tropical forest in Brazil (time series length: 225 with almost no seasonality. Our method significantly improves accuracy in the presence of strong seasonality, in particular the temporal lag between disturbance and its detection.

A Framework for Treating Cumulative Trauma with Art Therapy

Science.gov (United States)

Naff, Kristina

2014-01-01

Cumulative trauma is relatively undocumented in art therapy practice, although there is growing evidence that art therapy provides distinct benefits for resolving various traumas. This qualitative study proposes an art therapy treatment framework for cumulative trauma derived from semi-structured interviews with three art therapists and artistic…

Cumulative Environmental Impacts: Science and Policy to Protect Communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Solomon, Gina M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Zeise, Lauren; Faust, John B

2016-01-01

Many communities are located near multiple sources of pollution, including current and former industrial sites, major roadways, and agricultural operations. Populations in such locations are predominantly low-income, with a large percentage of minorities and non-English speakers. These communities face challenges that can affect the health of their residents, including limited access to health care, a shortage of grocery stores, poor housing quality, and a lack of parks and open spaces. Environmental exposures may interact with social stressors, thereby worsening health outcomes. Age, genetic characteristics, and preexisting health conditions increase the risk of adverse health effects from exposure to pollutants. There are existing approaches for characterizing cumulative exposures, cumulative risks, and cumulative health impacts. Although such approaches have merit, they also have significant constraints. New developments in exposure monitoring, mapping, toxicology, and epidemiology, especially when informed by community participation, have the potential to advance the science on cumulative impacts and to improve decision making.

Baltic Sea biodiversity status vs. cumulative human pressures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jesper H.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Korpinen, Samuli

2015-01-01

Abstract Many studies have tried to explain spatial and temporal variations in biodiversity status of marine areas from a single-issue perspective, such as fishing pressure or coastal pollution, yet most continental seas experience a wide range of human pressures. Cumulative impact assessments have...... been developed to capture the consequences of multiple stressors for biodiversity, but the ability of these assessments to accurately predict biodiversity status has never been tested or ground-truthed. This relationship has similarly been assumed for the Baltic Sea, especially in areas with impaired...... status, but has also never been documented. Here we provide a first tentative indication that cumulative human impacts relate to ecosystem condition, i.e. biodiversity status, in the Baltic Sea. Thus, cumulative impact assessments offer a promising tool for informed marine spatial planning, designation...

Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

2011-12-01

In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

Single and Cumulative Relations of Social Risk Factors with Children's Dental Health and Care-Utilization Within Regions of the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Alyssa J; Gromoske, Andrea N; Olson, Melissa A; Chaffin, Jeffrey G

2016-03-01

The purpose is to examine the relation of social risk factors, and the cumulative burden of social risk factors, on parent-reported dental health and dental care-seeking behavior. National Survey of Children's Health data (2011-2012) were analyzed for US children by Title V Block Grant regions. Multivariate logistic regressions were estimated for ten social risk factors, as well as a cumulative risk index, to find any associations with poor condition of teeth, presence of dental caries, and no dental care visits. Almost all of the risk factors were significantly associated with poor condition of teeth and presence of dental caries for the US. Models associating no dental care visits suggested that low family income (OR 1.58), poor maternal mental health (OR 1.54), high school education or less (OR 1.34), and multi-racial/other race (OR 1.18) were significant factors for the US. Regional variation existed for those risk factors and their association with the outcomes, but income, education, and poor maternal mental health consistently played a significant role in adverse outcomes. The cumulative risk index was strongly related to poor oral health outcomes, with a weaker relationship to dental care utilization. US children experiencing certain social risk factors, such as low family income, high school education or less, and poor maternal mental health, are likely to be at greater risk for poor dental health and low levels of dental-care seeking behavior. Children experiencing multiple social risks are at greater risk for poor oral outcomes than children who experience fewer social risks. An approach that involves the social determinants of health is needed to address these issues.

Cumulative childhood risk is associated with a new measure of chronic inflammation in adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmussen, Line Jee Hartmann; Moffitt, Terrie E; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper; Belsky, Daniel W; Danese, Andrea; Harrington, HonaLee; Houts, Renate M; Poulton, Richie; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Caspi, Avshalom

2018-05-09

Childhood risk factors are associated with elevated inflammatory biomarkers in adulthood, but it is unknown whether these risk factors are associated with increased adult levels of the chronic inflammation marker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). We aimed to test the hypothesis that childhood exposure to risk factors for adult disease is associated with elevated suPAR in adulthood and to compare suPAR with the oft-reported inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP). Prospective study of a population-representative 1972-1973 birth cohort; the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed participants to age 38 years. Main childhood predictors were poor health, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), low IQ, and poor self-control. Main adult outcomes were adulthood inflammation measured as suPAR and high-sensitivity CRP (hsCRP). Participants with available plasma samples at age 38 were included (N = 837, 50.5% male). suPAR (mean 2.40 ng/ml; SD 0.91) was positively correlated with hsCRP (r 0.15, p childhood risks were aggregated into a Cumulative Childhood Risk index, and controlling for sex, BMI, and smoking, Cumulative Childhood Risk was associated with higher suPAR (b 0.10; SE 0.03; p = .002). Cumulative Childhood Risk predicted elevated suPAR, after controlling for hsCRP (b 0.18; SE 0.03; p childhood risk factors was associated with higher suPAR levels, independent of CRP. suPAR is a useful addition to studies connecting childhood risk to adult inflammatory burden. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

County-level cumulative environmental quality associated with cancer incidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Jagai, Jyotsna S; Messer, Lynne C; Rappazzo, Kristen M; Gray, Christine L; Grabich, Shannon C; Lobdell, Danelle T

2017-08-01

Individual environmental exposures are associated with cancer development; however, environmental exposures occur simultaneously. The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) is a county-level measure of cumulative environmental exposures that occur in 5 domains. The EQI was linked to county-level annual age-adjusted cancer incidence rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program state cancer profiles. All-site cancer and the top 3 site-specific cancers for male and female subjects were considered. Incident rate differences (IRDs; annual rate difference per 100,000 persons) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using fixed-slope, random intercept multilevel linear regression models. Associations were assessed with domain-specific indices and analyses were stratified by rural/urban status. Comparing the highest quintile/poorest environmental quality with the lowest quintile/best environmental quality for overall EQI, all-site county-level cancer incidence rate was positively associated with poor environmental quality overall (IRD, 38.55; 95% CI, 29.57-47.53) and for male (IRD, 32.60; 95% CI, 16.28-48.91) and female (IRD, 30.34; 95% CI, 20.47-40.21) subjects, indicating a potential increase in cancer incidence with decreasing environmental quality. Rural/urban stratified models demonstrated positive associations comparing the highest with the lowest quintiles for all strata, except the thinly populated/rural stratum and in the metropolitan/urbanized stratum. Prostate and breast cancer demonstrated the strongest positive associations with poor environmental quality. We observed strong positive associations between the EQI and all-site cancer incidence rates, and associations differed by rural/urban status and environmental domain. Research focusing on single environmental exposures in cancer development may not address the broader environmental context in which cancers develop, and future research should address cumulative environmental

A novel weight determination method for time series data aggregation

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Paiheng; Zhang, Rong; Deng, Yong

2017-09-01

Aggregation in time series is of great importance in time series smoothing, predicting and other time series analysis process, which makes it crucial to address the weights in times series correctly and reasonably. In this paper, a novel method to obtain the weights in time series is proposed, in which we adopt induced ordered weighted aggregation (IOWA) operator and visibility graph averaging (VGA) operator and linearly combine the weights separately generated by the two operator. The IOWA operator is introduced to the weight determination of time series, through which the time decay factor is taken into consideration. The VGA operator is able to generate weights with respect to the degree distribution in the visibility graph constructed from the corresponding time series, which reflects the relative importance of vertices in time series. The proposed method is applied to two practical datasets to illustrate its merits. The aggregation of Construction Cost Index (CCI) demonstrates the ability of proposed method to smooth time series, while the aggregation of The Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) illustrate how proposed method maintain the variation tendency of original data.

A cointegration analysis of wine stock indexes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabina Introvigne

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes price patterns and long-run relationships for both fine wine and non-fine wine, with the aim to highlight price dynamics and co-movements between series, and to exploit potential diversification benefits. Data are from Liv-Ex 100 Fine Wine for fine wine, the Mediobanca Global Wine Industry Share Price for normal wine, and the MSCI World Index as a proxy of the overall stock market. Engle-Granger and Johansen tests were used to detect whether and to what extent the series co-move in the long run and which one of the variables contributes proactively to such an equilibrium by reacting to disequilibria from the long-run path. The estimates highlight that i the two wine indexes have a higher Sharpe ratio compared to the general stock market index, revealing wine stocks as a profitable investment per se, and ii the absence of cointegration among the three series and the existence of possible diversification benefits. In fact, in the long-run price do not move together and, therefore, investors may be better off by including wine stocks into investment portfolios and take advantage of diversification

Cumulative query method for influenza surveillance using search engine data.

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Dong-Woo; Jo, Min-Woo; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Shin, Soo-Yong; Lee, JaeHo; Yu, Maengsoo; Kim, Won Young; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Lee, Sang-Il

2014-12-16

Internet search queries have become an important data source in syndromic surveillance system. However, there is currently no syndromic surveillance system using Internet search query data in South Korea. The objective of this study was to examine correlations between our cumulative query method and national influenza surveillance data. Our study was based on the local search engine, Daum (approximately 25% market share), and influenza-like illness (ILI) data from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A quota sampling survey was conducted with 200 participants to obtain popular queries. We divided the study period into two sets: Set 1 (the 2009/10 epidemiological year for development set 1 and 2010/11 for validation set 1) and Set 2 (2010/11 for development Set 2 and 2011/12 for validation Set 2). Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated between the Daum data and the ILI data for the development set. We selected the combined queries for which the correlation coefficients were .7 or higher and listed them in descending order. Then, we created a cumulative query method n representing the number of cumulative combined queries in descending order of the correlation coefficient. In validation set 1, 13 cumulative query methods were applied, and 8 had higher correlation coefficients (min=.916, max=.943) than that of the highest single combined query. Further, 11 of 13 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 4 of 13 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. In validation set 2, 8 of 15 cumulative query methods showed higher correlation coefficients (min=.975, max=.987) than that of the highest single combined query. All 15 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 6 of 15 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. Cumulative query method showed relatively higher correlation with national influenza surveillance data than combined queries in the development and validation set.

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Foley, Melissa M., E-mail: mfoley@usgs.gov [U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, 400 Natural Bridges, Dr., Santa Cruz, CA 95060 (United States); Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 99 Pacific St., Monterey, CA 93940 (United States); Mease, Lindley A., E-mail: lamease@stanford.edu [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Martone, Rebecca G., E-mail: rmartone@stanford.edu [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 99 Pacific St., Monterey, CA 93940 (United States); Prahler, Erin E. [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Morrison, Tiffany H., E-mail: tiffany.morrison@jcu.edu.au [ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811 (Australia); Murray, Cathryn Clarke, E-mail: cmurray@pices.int [WWF-Canada, 409 Granville Street, Suite 1588, Vancouver, BC V6C 1T2 (Canada); Wojcik, Deborah, E-mail: deb.wojcik@duke.edu [Nicholas School for the Environment, Duke University, 9 Circuit Dr., Durham, NC 27708 (United States)

2017-01-15

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Prahler, Erin E.; Morrison, Tiffany H.; Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Wojcik, Deborah

2017-01-01

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A; Martone, Rebecca G; Prahler, Erin E; Morrison, Tiffany H; Clarke Murray, Cathryn; Wojcik, Deborah

2016-01-01

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

Non-Chemical Stressors and Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Current Initiatives and Potential Air Pollutant Interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Ari S.; Sax, Sonja N.; Wason, Susan C.; Campleman, Sharan L.

2011-01-01

Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit

Nonlinear time series theory, methods and applications with R examples

CERN Document Server

Douc, Randal; Stoffer, David

2014-01-01

FOUNDATIONSLinear ModelsStochastic Processes The Covariance World Linear Processes The Multivariate Cases Numerical Examples ExercisesLinear Gaussian State Space Models Model Basics Filtering, Smoothing, and Forecasting Maximum Likelihood Estimation Smoothing Splines and the Kalman Smoother Asymptotic Distribution of the MLE Missing Data Modifications Structural Component Models State-Space Models with Correlated Errors Exercises Beyond Linear ModelsNonlinear Non-Gaussian Data Volterra Series Expansion Cumulants and Higher-Order Spectra Bilinear Models Conditionally Heteroscedastic Models Thre

Managing regional cumulative effects of oil sands development in Alberta, Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spaling, H.; Zwier, J.

2000-01-01

This paper demonstrates an approach to regional cumulative effects management using the case of oil sands development in Alberta, Canada. The 17 existing, approved, or planned projects, all concentrated in a relatively small region, pose significant challenges for conducting and reviewing cumulative effects assessment (CEA) on a project-by-project basis. In response, stakeholders have initiated a regional cumulative effects management system that is among the first such initiatives anywhere. Advantages of this system include (1) more efficient gathering and sharing of information, including a common regional database, (2) setting acceptable regional environmental thresholds for all projects, (3) collaborative assessment of similar cumulative effects from related projects, (4) co-ordinated regulatory review and approval process for overlapping CEAs, and (5) institutional empowerment from a Regional Sustainable Development Strategy administered by a public authority. This case provides a model for integrating project-based CEA with regional management of cumulative effects. (author)

Analysis of Heavy-Tailed Time Series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xie, Xiaolei

This thesis is about analysis of heavy-tailed time series. We discuss tail properties of real-world equity return series and investigate the possibility that a single tail index is shared by all return series of actively traded equities in a market. Conditions for this hypothesis to be true...... are identified. We study the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of sample covariance and sample auto-covariance matrices of multivariate heavy-tailed time series, and particularly for time series with very high dimensions. Asymptotic approximations of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of such matrices are found...... and expressed in terms of the parameters of the dependence structure, among others. Furthermore, we study an importance sampling method for estimating rare-event probabilities of multivariate heavy-tailed time series generated by matrix recursion. We show that the proposed algorithm is efficient in the sense...

Cumulative effects of planned industrial development and climate change on marine ecosystems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

2015-07-01

Full Text Available With increasing human population, large scale climate changes, and the interaction of multiple stressors, understanding cumulative effects on marine ecosystems is increasingly important. Two major drivers of change in coastal and marine ecosystems are industrial developments with acute impacts on local ecosystems, and global climate change stressors with widespread impacts. We conducted a cumulative effects mapping analysis of the marine waters of British Columbia, Canada, under different scenarios: climate change and planned developments. At the coast-wide scale, climate change drove the largest change in cumulative effects with both widespread impacts and high vulnerability scores. Where the impacts of planned developments occur, planned industrial and pipeline activities had high cumulative effects, but the footprint of these effects was comparatively localized. Nearshore habitats were at greatest risk from planned industrial and pipeline activities; in particular, the impacts of planned pipelines on rocky intertidal habitats were predicted to cause the highest change in cumulative effects. This method of incorporating planned industrial development in cumulative effects mapping allows explicit comparison of different scenarios with the potential to be used in environmental impact assessments at various scales. Its use allows resource managers to consider cumulative effect hotspots when making decisions regarding industrial developments and avoid unacceptable cumulative effects. Management needs to consider both global and local stressors in managing marine ecosystems for the protection of biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services.

The effects of cumulative practice on mathematics problem solving.

Science.gov (United States)

Mayfield, Kristin H; Chase, Philip N

2002-01-01

This study compared three different methods of teaching five basic algebra rules to college students. All methods used the same procedures to teach the rules and included four 50-question review sessions interspersed among the training of the individual rules. The differences among methods involved the kinds of practice provided during the four review sessions. Participants who received cumulative practice answered 50 questions covering a mix of the rules learned prior to each review session. Participants who received a simple review answered 50 questions on one previously trained rule. Participants who received extra practice answered 50 extra questions on the rule they had just learned. Tests administered after each review included new questions for applying each rule (application items) and problems that required novel combinations of the rules (problem-solving items). On the final test, the cumulative group outscored the other groups on application and problem-solving items. In addition, the cumulative group solved the problem-solving items significantly faster than the other groups. These results suggest that cumulative practice of component skills is an effective method of training problem solving.

Super-Resolution Algorithm in Cumulative Virtual Blanking

Science.gov (United States)

Montillet, J. P.; Meng, X.; Roberts, G. W.; Woolfson, M. S.

2008-11-01

The proliferation of mobile devices and the emergence of wireless location-based services have generated consumer demand for precise location. In this paper, the MUSIC super-resolution algorithm is applied to time delay estimation for positioning purposes in cellular networks. The goal is to position a Mobile Station with UMTS technology. The problem of Base-Stations herability is solved using Cumulative Virtual Blanking. A simple simulator is presented using DS-SS signal. The results show that MUSIC algorithm improves the time delay estimation in both the cases whether or not Cumulative Virtual Blanking was carried out.

Analysis of LDPE-ZnO-clay nanocomposites using novel cumulative rheological parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Kracalik, Milan

2017-05-01

Polymer nanocomposites exhibit complex rheological behaviour due to physical and also possibly chemical interactions between individual phases. Up to now, rheology of dispersive polymer systems has been usually described by evaluation of viscosity curve (shear thinning phenomenon), storage modulus curve (formation of secondary plateau) or plotting information about dumping behaviour (e.g. Van Gurp-Palmen-plot, comparison of loss factor tan δ). On the contrary to evaluation of damping behaviour, values of cot δ were calculated and called as "storage factor", analogically to loss factor. Then values of storage factor were integrated over specific frequency range and called as "cumulative storage factor". In this contribution, LDPE-ZnO-clay nanocomposites with different dispersion grades (physical networks) have been prepared and characterized by both conventional as well as novel analysis approach. Next to cumulative storage factor, further cumulative rheological parameters like cumulative complex viscosity, cumulative complex modulus or cumulative storage modulus have been introduced.

Understanding characteristics in multivariate traffic flow time series from complex network structure

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Ying; Zhang, Shen; Tang, Jinjun; Wang, Xiaofei

2017-07-01

Discovering dynamic characteristics in traffic flow is the significant step to design effective traffic managing and controlling strategy for relieving traffic congestion in urban cities. A new method based on complex network theory is proposed to study multivariate traffic flow time series. The data were collected from loop detectors on freeway during a year. In order to construct complex network from original traffic flow, a weighted Froenius norm is adopt to estimate similarity between multivariate time series, and Principal Component Analysis is implemented to determine the weights. We discuss how to select optimal critical threshold for networks at different hour in term of cumulative probability distribution of degree. Furthermore, two statistical properties of networks: normalized network structure entropy and cumulative probability of degree, are utilized to explore hourly variation in traffic flow. The results demonstrate these two statistical quantities express similar pattern to traffic flow parameters with morning and evening peak hours. Accordingly, we detect three traffic states: trough, peak and transitional hours, according to the correlation between two aforementioned properties. The classifying results of states can actually represent hourly fluctuation in traffic flow by analyzing annual average hourly values of traffic volume, occupancy and speed in corresponding hours.

Expansion formulae for characteristics of cumulative cost in finite horizon production models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ayhan, H.; Schlegel, S.

2001-01-01

We consider the expected value and the tail probability of cumulative shortage and holding cost (i.e. the probability that cumulative cost is more than a certain value) in finite horizon production models. An exact expression is provided for the expected value of the cumulative cost for general

The Risk Return Relationship: Evidence from Index Return and Realised Variance Series

OpenAIRE

Minxian Yang

2014-01-01

The risk return relationship is analysed in bivariate models for return and realised variance(RV) series. Based on daily time series from 21 international market indices for more than 13 years (January 2000 to February 2013), the empirical findings support the arguments of risk return tradeoff, volatility feedback and statistical balance. It is reasoned that the empirical risk return relationship is primarily shaped by two important data features: the negative contemporaneous correlation betw...

Cumulative Trauma Among Mayas Living in Southeast Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

Millender, Eugenia I; Lowe, John

2017-06-01

Mayas, having experienced genocide, exile, and severe poverty, are at high risk for the consequences of cumulative trauma that continually resurfaces through current fear of an uncertain future. Little is known about the mental health and alcohol use status of this population. This correlational study explored t/he relationship of cumulative trauma as it relates to social determinants of health (years in the United States, education, health insurance status, marital status, and employment), psychological health (depression symptoms), and health behaviors (alcohol use) of 102 Guatemalan Mayas living in Southeast Florida. The results of this study indicated that, as specific social determinants of health and cumulative trauma increased, depression symptoms (particularly among women) and the risk for harmful alcohol use (particularly among men) increased. Identifying risk factors at an early stage before serious disease or problems are manifest provides room for early screening leading to early identification, early treatment, and better outcomes.

Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Seshadri, Ashwin K.

2017-11-01

Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

Using non-time-series to determine supply elasticity: how far do prices change the Hubbert curve?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynolds, D.B.

2002-01-01

An important concern of OPEC's work is to be able to understand how much supply of oil exists in different countries, in order to help better conserve oil. This paper extends M. King Hubbert's oil production and discovery forecasting model (Hubbert, 1962), using a non-time-series cumulative discovery and production quadratic Hubbert curve and structural shift variables to model technology and regulation changes. The model can be used to determine better world oil supplies. Price is tested, to see how powerful it is for increasing or decreasing oil supply. Using a trend of cumulative production, instead of time, will help to better fix the supply elasticity with respect to price, which is shown to be very inelastic. An interesting question is whether cumulative discovery or production constitutes an I(2) variable. This paper explains that they are not I(2) variables. (Author)

Fuzzy time-series based on Fibonacci sequence for stock price forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Tai-Liang; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Jong Teoh, Hia

2007-07-01

Time-series models have been utilized to make reasonably accurate predictions in the areas of stock price movements, academic enrollments, weather, etc. For promoting the forecasting performance of fuzzy time-series models, this paper proposes a new model, which incorporates the concept of the Fibonacci sequence, the framework of Song and Chissom's model and the weighted method of Yu's model. This paper employs a 5-year period TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) stock price data and a 13-year period of TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) stock index data as experimental datasets. By comparing our forecasting performances with Chen's (Forecasting enrollments based on fuzzy time-series. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 81 (1996) 311-319), Yu's (Weighted fuzzy time-series models for TAIEX forecasting. Physica A 349 (2004) 609-624) and Huarng's (The application of neural networks to forecast fuzzy time series. Physica A 336 (2006) 481-491) models, we conclude that the proposed model surpasses in accuracy these conventional fuzzy time-series models.

Cumulative effects of wind turbines. Volume 3: Report on results of consultations on cumulative effects of wind turbines on birds

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-07-01

This report gives details of the consultations held in developing the consensus approach taken in assessing the cumulative effects of wind turbines. Contributions on bird issues, and views of stakeholders, the Countryside Council for Wales, electric utilities, Scottish Natural Heritage, and the National Wind Power Association are reported. The scoping of key species groups, where cumulative effects might be expected, consideration of other developments, the significance of any adverse effects, mitigation, regional capacity assessments, and predictive models are discussed. Topics considered at two stakeholder workshops are outlined in the appendices.

Higher order cumulants in colorless partonic plasma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cherif, S. [Sciences and Technologies Department, University of Ghardaia, Ghardaia, Algiers (Algeria); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M. A. A. [Department of Physics, College of Science, Taibah University Al-Madinah Al-Mounawwarah KSA (Saudi Arabia); Department of Physics, Taiz University in Turba, Taiz (Yemen); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria); Ladrem, M., E-mail: mladrem@yahoo.fr [Department of Physics, College of Science, Taibah University Al-Madinah Al-Mounawwarah KSA (Saudi Arabia); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria)

2016-06-10

Any physical system considered to study the QCD deconfinement phase transition certainly has a finite volume, so the finite size effects are inevitably present. This renders the location of the phase transition and the determination of its order as an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the colorless QCD deconfinement transition point in finite volume T{sub 0}(V), a new approach based on the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the ℒ{sub m,n}-Method is used. We have shown that both cumulants of higher order and their ratios, associated to the thermodynamical fluctuations of the order parameter, in QCD deconfinement phase transition behave in a particular enough way revealing pronounced oscillations in the transition region. The sign structure and the oscillatory behavior of these in the vicinity of the deconfinement phase transition point might be a sensitive probe and may allow one to elucidate their relation to the QCD phase transition point. In the context of our model, we have shown that the finite volume transition point is always associated to the appearance of a particular point in whole higher order cumulants under consideration.

Cumulative effects of forest management activities: how might they occur?

Science.gov (United States)

R. M. Rice; R. B. Thomas

1985-01-01

Concerns are often voiced about possible environmental damage as the result of the cumulative sedimentation effects of logging and forest road construction. In response to these concerns, National Forests are developing procedures to reduce the possibility that their activities may lead to unacceptable cumulative effects

Application of Higher-Order Cumulant in Fault Diagnosis of Rolling Bearing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen, Yongjun; Yang, Shaopu; Wang, Junfeng

2013-01-01

In this paper a new method of pattern recognition based on higher-order cumulant and envelope analysis is presented. The core of this new method is to construct analytical signals from the given signals and obtain the envelope signals firstly, then compute and compare the higher-order cumulants of the envelope signals. The higher-order cumulants could be used as a characteristic quantity to distinguish these given signals. As an example, this method is applied in fault diagnosis for 197726 rolling bearing of freight locomotive. The comparisons of the second-order, third-order and fourth-order cumulants of the envelope signals from different vibration signals of rolling bearing show this new method could discriminate the normal and two fault signals distinctly

Elaboration of a concept for the cumulative environmental exposure assessment of biocides

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gross, Rita; Bunke, Dirk; Moch, Katja [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie e.V., Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Gartiser, Stefan [Hydrotox GmbH, Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

2011-12-15

Article 10(1) of the EU Biocidal Products Directive 98/8/EC (BPD) requires that for the inclusion of an active substance in Annex I, Annex IA or IB, cumulation effects from the use of biocidal products containing the same active substance shall be taken into account, where relevant. The study proves the feasibility of a technical realisation of Article 10(1) of the BPD and elaborates a first concept for the cumulative environmental exposure assessment of biocides. Existing requirements concerning cumulative assessments in other regulatory frameworks have been evaluated and their applicability for biocides has been examined. Technical terms and definitions used in this context were documented with the aim to harmonise terminology with other frameworks and to set up a precise definition within the BPD. Furthermore, application conditions of biocidal products have been analysed to find out for which cumulative exposure assessments may be relevant. Different parameters were identified which might serve as indicators for the relevance of cumulative exposure assessments. These indicators were then integrated in a flow chart by means of which the relevance of cumulative exposure assessments can be checked. Finally, proposals for the technical performance of cumulative exposure assessments within the Review Programme have been elaborated with the aim to bring the results of the project into the upcoming development and harmonization processes on EU level. (orig.)

Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

2012-01-01

The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO2 relative to other major climate forcing agents. PMID:22869803

Cumulative keyboard strokes: a possible risk factor for carpal tunnel syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eleftheriou Andreas

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Contradictory reports have been published regarding the association of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome (CTS and the use of computer keyboard. Previous studies did not take into account the cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes among computer workers. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between cumulative keyboard use (keyboard strokes and CTS. Methods Employees (461 from a Governmental data entry & processing unit agreed to participate (response rate: 84.1 % in a cross-sectional study. Α questionnaire was distributed to the participants to obtain information on socio-demographics and risk factors for CTS. The participants were examined for signs and symptoms related to CTS and were asked if they had previous history or surgery for CTS. The cumulative amount of the keyboard strokes per worker per year was calculated by the use of payroll’s registry. Two case definitions for CTS were used. The first included subjects with personal history/surgery for CTS while the second included subjects that belonged to the first case definition plus those participants were identified through clinical examination. Results Multivariate analysis used for both case definitions, indicated that those employees with high cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes were at increased risk of CTS (case definition A: OR = 2.23;95 % CI = 1.09-4.52 and case definition B: OR = 2.41; 95%CI = 1.36-4.25. A dose response pattern between cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes and CTS has been revealed (p  Conclusions The present study indicated a possible association between cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes and development of CTS. Cumulative exposure to key-board strokes would be taken into account as an exposure indicator regarding exposure assessment of computer workers. Further research is needed in order to test the results of the current study and assess causality between cumulative keyboard strokes and

Crane Safety Assessment Method Based on Entropy and Cumulative Prospect Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aihua Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Assessing the safety status of cranes is an important problem. To overcome the inaccuracies and misjudgments in such assessments, this work describes a safety assessment method for cranes that combines entropy and cumulative prospect theory. Firstly, the proposed method transforms the set of evaluation indices into an evaluation vector. Secondly, a decision matrix is then constructed from the evaluation vectors and evaluation standards, and an entropy-based technique is applied to calculate the index weights. Thirdly, positive and negative prospect value matrices are established from reference points based on the positive and negative ideal solutions. Thus, this enables the crane safety grade to be determined according to the ranked comprehensive prospect values. Finally, the safety status of four general overhead traveling crane samples is evaluated to verify the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method. The results demonstrate that the method described in this paper can precisely and reasonably reflect the safety status of a crane.

Proceedings (Mathematical Sciences) SUBJECT INDEX

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

SUBJECT INDEX. Abel's summation formula. Analogues of Euler and Poisson summa- tion formulae. 213 ... theorems of Wiener and Lévy on absolutely convergent Fourier series. 179. Brownian motion. Probabilistic representations of solutions to the heat equation. 321. Cesáro matrix. Necessary and sufficient conditions for.

Evaluation of environmental impact produced by different economic activities with the global pollution index.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaharia, Carmen

2012-07-01

The paper analyses the environment pollution state in different case studies of economic activities (i.e. co-generation electric and thermal power production, iron profile manufacturing, cement processing, waste landfilling, and wood furniture manufacturing), evaluating mainly the environmental cumulative impacts (e.g. cumulative impact against the health of the environment and different life forms). The status of the environment (air, water resources, soil, and noise) is analysed with respect to discharges such as gaseous discharges in the air, final effluents discharged in natural receiving basins or sewerage system, and discharges onto the soil together with the principal pollutants expressed by different environmental indicators corresponding to each specific productive activity. The alternative methodology of global pollution index (I (GP)*) for quantification of environmental impacts is applied. Environmental data analysis permits the identification of potential impact, prediction of significant impact, and evaluation of cumulative impact on a commensurate scale by evaluation scores (ES(i)) for discharge quality, and global effect to the environment pollution state by calculation of the global pollution index (I (GP)*). The I (GP)* values for each productive unit (i.e. 1.664-2.414) correspond to an 'environment modified by industrial/economic activity within admissible limits, having potential of generating discomfort effects'. The evaluation results are significant in view of future development of each productive unit and sustain the economic production in terms of environment protection with respect to a preventive environment protection scheme and continuous measures of pollution control.

An inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score system in patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma in rituximab era.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Feifei; Zhu, Jia; Lu, Suying; Zhen, Zijun; Wang, Juan; Huang, Junting; Ding, Zonghui; Zeng, Musheng; Sun, Xiaofei

2018-01-02

Systemic inflammatory parameters are associated with poor outcomes in malignant patients. Several inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score systems were established for various solid tumors. However, there is few inflammation based cumulative prognostic score system for patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We retrospectively reviewed 564 adult DLBCL patients who had received rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisolone (R-CHOP) therapy between Nov 1 2006 and Dec 30 2013 and assessed the prognostic significance of six systemic inflammatory parameters evaluated in previous studies by univariate and multivariate analysis:C-reactive protein(CRP), albumin levels, the lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR), the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR), the platelet-lymphocyte ratio(PLR)and fibrinogen levels. Multivariate analysis identified CRP, albumin levels and the LMR are three independent prognostic parameters for overall survival (OS). Based on these three factors, we constructed a novel inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score (ICPS) system. Four risk groups were formed: group ICPS = 0, ICPS = 1, ICPS = 2 and ICPS = 3. Advanced multivariate analysis indicated that the ICPS model is a prognostic score system independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) for both progression-free survival (PFS) (p systemic inflammatory status was associated with clinical outcomes of patients with DLBCL in rituximab era. The ICPS model was shown to classify risk groups more accurately than any single inflammatory prognostic parameters. These findings may be useful for identifying candidates for further inflammation-related mechanism research or novel anti-inflammation target therapies.

Cumulative effective dose associated with radiography and CT of adolescents with spinal injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemburg, Stefan P; Peters, Soeren A; Roggenland, Daniela; Nicolas, Volkmar; Heyer, Christoph M

2010-12-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze the quantity and distribution of cumulative effective doses in diagnostic imaging of adolescents with spinal injuries. At a level 1 trauma center from July 2003 through June 2009, imaging procedures during initial evaluation and hospitalization and after discharge of all patients 10-20 years old with spinal fractures were retrospectively analyzed. The cumulative effective doses for all imaging studies were calculated, and the doses to patients with spinal injuries who had multiple traumatic injuries were compared with the doses to patients with spinal injuries but without multiple injuries. The significance level was set at 5%. Imaging studies of 72 patients (32 with multiple injuries; average age, 17.5 years) entailed a median cumulative effective dose of 18.89 mSv. Patients with multiple injuries had a significantly higher total cumulative effective dose (29.70 versus 10.86 mSv, p cumulative effective dose to multiple injury patients during the initial evaluation (18.39 versus 2.83 mSv, p cumulative effective dose. Adolescents with spinal injuries receive a cumulative effective dose equal to that of adult trauma patients and nearly three times that of pediatric trauma patients. Areas of focus in lowering cumulative effective dose should be appropriate initial estimation of trauma severity and careful selection of CT scan parameters.

Dynamic Modeling of CDS Index Tranche Spreads

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dorn, Jochen

This paper provides a Market Model which implies a dynamics for standardized CDS index tranche spreads, i.e. tranches which securitise CDS index series and dispose of predefined subordination. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling...... options on structured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the effects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke...... tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options with standard characteristics....

Evolution of costly explicit memory and cumulative culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakamaru, Mayuko

2016-06-21

Humans can acquire new information and modify it (cumulative culture) based on their learning and memory abilities, especially explicit memory, through the processes of encoding, consolidation, storage, and retrieval. Explicit memory is categorized into semantic and episodic memories. Animals have semantic memory, while episodic memory is unique to humans and essential for innovation and the evolution of culture. As both episodic and semantic memory are needed for innovation, the evolution of explicit memory influences the evolution of culture. However, previous theoretical studies have shown that environmental fluctuations influence the evolution of imitation (social learning) and innovation (individual learning) and assume that memory is not an evolutionary trait. If individuals can store and retrieve acquired information properly, they can modify it and innovate new information. Therefore, being able to store and retrieve information is essential from the perspective of cultural evolution. However, if both storage and retrieval were too costly, forgetting and relearning would have an advantage over storing and retrieving acquired information. In this study, using mathematical analysis and individual-based simulations, we investigate whether cumulative culture can promote the coevolution of costly memory and social and individual learning, assuming that cumulative culture improves the fitness of each individual. The conclusions are: (1) without cumulative culture, a social learning cost is essential for the evolution of storage-retrieval. Costly storage-retrieval can evolve with individual learning but costly social learning does not evolve. When low-cost social learning evolves, the repetition of forgetting and learning is favored more than the evolution of costly storage-retrieval, even though a cultural trait improves the fitness. (2) When cumulative culture exists and improves fitness, storage-retrieval can evolve with social and/or individual learning, which

EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

Science.gov (United States)

Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

Hyperscaling breakdown and Ising spin glasses: The Binder cumulant

Science.gov (United States)

Lundow, P. H.; Campbell, I. A.

2018-02-01

Among the Renormalization Group Theory scaling rules relating critical exponents, there are hyperscaling rules involving the dimension of the system. It is well known that in Ising models hyperscaling breaks down above the upper critical dimension. It was shown by Schwartz (1991) that the standard Josephson hyperscaling rule can also break down in Ising systems with quenched random interactions. A related Renormalization Group Theory hyperscaling rule links the critical exponents for the normalized Binder cumulant and the correlation length in the thermodynamic limit. An appropriate scaling approach for analyzing measurements from criticality to infinite temperature is first outlined. Numerical data on the scaling of the normalized correlation length and the normalized Binder cumulant are shown for the canonical Ising ferromagnet model in dimension three where hyperscaling holds, for the Ising ferromagnet in dimension five (so above the upper critical dimension) where hyperscaling breaks down, and then for Ising spin glass models in dimension three where the quenched interactions are random. For the Ising spin glasses there is a breakdown of the normalized Binder cumulant hyperscaling relation in the thermodynamic limit regime, with a return to size independent Binder cumulant values in the finite-size scaling regime around the critical region.

Summary report of a workshop on establishing cumulative effects thresholds : a suggested approach for establishing cumulative effects thresholds in a Yukon context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

Increasingly, thresholds are being used as a land and cumulative effects assessment and management tool. To assist in the management of wildlife species such as woodland caribou, the Department of Indian and Northern Affairs (DIAND) Environment Directorate, Yukon sponsored a workshop to develop and use cumulative thresholds in the Yukon. The approximately 30 participants reviewed recent initiatives in the Yukon and other jurisdictions. The workshop is expected to help formulate a strategic vision for implementing cumulative effects thresholds in the Yukon. The key to success resides in building relationships with Umbrella Final Agreement (UFA) Boards, the Development Assessment Process (DAP), and the Yukon Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Act (YESAA). Broad support is required within an integrated resource management framework. The workshop featured discussions on current science and theory of cumulative effects thresholds. Potential data and implementation issues were also discussed. It was concluded that thresholds are useful and scientifically defensible. The threshold research results obtained in Alberta, British Columbia and the Northwest Territories are applicable to the Yukon. One of the best tools for establishing and tracking thresholds is habitat effectiveness. Effects must be monitored and tracked. Biologists must share their information with decision makers. Interagency coordination and assistance should be facilitated through the establishment of working groups. Regional land use plans should include thresholds. 7 refs.

Mismatch or cumulative stress : Toward an integrated hypothesis of programming effects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nederhof, Esther; Schmidt, Mathias V.

2012-01-01

This paper integrates the cumulative stress hypothesis with the mismatch hypothesis, taking into account individual differences in sensitivity to programming. According to the cumulative stress hypothesis, individuals are more likely to suffer from disease as adversity accumulates. According to the

Finite-volume cumulant expansion in QCD-colorless plasma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ladrem, M. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Physics Department, Algiers (Algeria); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M.A.A. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Taiz University in Turba, Physics Department, Taiz (Yemen); Alfull, Z.Z. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Cherif, S. [ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ghardaia University, Sciences and Technologies Department, Ghardaia (Algeria)

2015-09-15

Due to the finite-size effects, the localization of the phase transition in finite systems and the determination of its order, become an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the finite-volume transition point T{sub 0}(V) of the QCD deconfinement phase transition to a colorless QGP, we have developed a new approach using the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the L{sub mn}-method. The first six cumulants C{sub 1,2,3,4,5,6} with the corresponding under-normalized ratios (skewness Σ, kurtosis κ, pentosis Π{sub ±}, and hexosis H{sub 1,2,3}) and three unnormalized combinations of them, (O = σ{sup 2}κΣ{sup -1},U = σ{sup -2}Σ{sup -1},N = σ{sup 2}κ) are calculated and studied as functions of (T, V). A new approach, unifying in a clear and consistent way the definitions of cumulant ratios, is proposed.Anumerical FSS analysis of the obtained results has allowed us to locate accurately the finite-volume transition point. The extracted transition temperature value T{sub 0}(V) agrees with that expected T{sub 0}{sup N}(V) from the order parameter and the thermal susceptibility χ{sub T} (T, V), according to the standard procedure of localization to within about 2%. In addition to this, a very good correlation factor is obtained proving the validity of our cumulants method. The agreement of our results with those obtained by means of other models is remarkable. (orig.)

Research on the Topological Properties of Air Quality Index Based on a Complex Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongli Zhang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available To analyze the dynamic characteristics of air quality for enforcing effective measures to prevent and evade air pollution harm, air quality index (AQI time series data was selected and transformed into a symbol sequence consisting of characters (H, M, L through the coarse graining process; then each 6-symbols series was treated as one vertex by time sequence to construct the AQI directed-weighted network; finally the centrality, clusterability, and ranking of the AQI network were analyzed. The results indicated that vertex strength and cumulative strength distribution, vertex strength and strength rank presented power law distributions, and the AQI network is a scale-free network. Only 17 vertices possessed a higher weighted clustering coefficient; meanwhile weighted clustering coefficient and vertex strength didn’t show a strong correlation. The AQI network did not have an obvious central tendency towards intermediaries in general, but 20.55% of vertices accounted for nearly 1/2 of the intermediaries, and the varieties still existed. The mean distance of 68.4932% of vertices was 6.120–9.973, the AQI network did not have obvious small-world phenomena, the conversion of AQI patterns presented the characteristics of periodicity and regularity, and 20.2055% of vertices had high proximity prestige. The vertices fell into six islands, the AQI pattern indicating heavy or serious air pollution lasting six days always lingered for a long time. The number of triads 2-012 was the largest, and the AQI network followed the transitivity model. The study has instructional significance in understanding time change regulation of air quality in Beijing, opening a new way for time series prediction research. Additionally, the factors causing the change of topological properties should be analyzed in the future research.

Cumulative emission budgets and their implications: the case for SAFE carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Myles; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David; Mason, Charles

2010-05-01

The risk of dangerous long-term climate change due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions is predominantly determined by cumulative emissions over all time, not the rate of emission in any given year or commitment period. This has profound implications for climate mitigation policy: emission targets for specific years such as 2020 or 2050 provide no guarantee of meeting any overall cumulative emission budget. By focusing attention on short-term measures to reduce the flow of emissions, they may even exacerbate the overall long-term stock. Here we consider how climate policies might be designed explicitly to limit cumulative emissions to, for example, one trillion tonnes of carbon, a figure that has been estimated to give a most likely warming of two degrees above pre-industrial, with a likely range of 1.6-2.6 degrees. Three approaches are considered: tradable emission permits with the possibility of indefinite emission banking, carbon taxes explicitly linked to cumulative emissions and mandatory carbon sequestration. Framing mitigation policy around cumulative targets alleviates the apparent tension between climate protection and short-term consumption that bedevils any attempt to forge global agreement. We argue that the simplest and hence potentially the most effective approach might be a mandatory requirement on the fossil fuel industry to ensure that a steadily increasing fraction of fossil carbon extracted from the ground is artificially removed from the active carbon cycle through some form of sequestration. We define Sequestered Adequate Fraction of Extracted (SAFE) carbon as a source in which this sequestered fraction is anchored to cumulative emissions, increasing smoothly to reach 100% before we release the trillionth tonne. While adopting the use of SAFE carbon would increase the cost of fossil energy much as a system of emission permits or carbon taxes would, it could do so with much less explicit government intervention. We contrast this proposal

Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Querbes, Adrien; Vaesen, Krist; Houkes, Wybo

2014-01-01

Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe

2014-01-01

Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO 2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions. (authors)

Mapping cumulative environmental risks: examples from the EU NoMiracle project

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pistocchi, A.; Groenwold, J.; Lahr, J.; Loos, M.; Mujica, M.; Ragas, A.M.J.; Rallo, R.; Sala, S.; Schlink, U.; Strebel, K.; Vighi, M.; Vizcaino, P.

2011-01-01

We present examples of cumulative chemical risk mapping methods developed within the NoMiracle project. The different examples illustrate the application of the concentration addition (CA) approach to pesticides at different scale, the integration in space of cumulative risks to individual organisms

Mapping Cumulative Impacts of Human Activities on Marine Ecosystems

OpenAIRE

, Seaplan

2018-01-01

Given the diversity of human uses and natural resources that converge in coastal waters, the potential independent and cumulative impacts of those uses on marine ecosystems are important to consider during ocean planning. This study was designed to support the development and implementation of the 2009 Massachusetts Ocean Management Plan. Its goal was to estimate and visualize the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal and marine ecosystems in the state and federal waters off of Ma...

Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and Mental Health of Employees in ... CAs were measured in three forms (family adversities (CAFam), personal adversities ... Age of employees ranged between 18-65 years.

Cumulation of light nuclei

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldin, A.M.; Bondarev, V.K.; Golovanov, L.B.

1977-01-01

Limit fragmentation of light nuclei (deuterium, helium) bombarded with 8,6 GeV/c protons was investigated. Fragments (pions, protons and deuterons) were detected within the emission angle 50-150 deg with regard to primary protons and within the pulse range 150-180 MeV/c. By the kinematics of collision of a primary proton with a target at rest the fragments observed correspond to a target mass upto 3 GeV. Thus, the data obtained correspond to teh cumulation upto the third order

Session: What do we know about cumulative or population impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kerlinger, Paul; Manville, Al; Kendall, Bill

2004-09-01

This session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of a panel discussion followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The panelists were Paul Kerlinger, Curry and Kerlinger, LLC, Al Manville, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Bill Kendall, US Geological Service. The panel addressed the potential cumulative impacts of wind turbines on bird and bat populations over time. Panel members gave brief presentations that touched on what is currently known, what laws apply, and the usefulness of population modeling. Topics addressed included which sources of modeling should be included in cumulative impacts, comparison of impacts from different modes of energy generation, as well as what research is still needed regarding cumulative impacts of wind energy development on bird and bat populations.

Evolutionary neural network modeling for software cumulative failure time prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tian Liang; Noore, Afzel

2005-01-01

An evolutionary neural network modeling approach for software cumulative failure time prediction based on multiple-delayed-input single-output architecture is proposed. Genetic algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the delayed input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network architecture. Modification of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to improve the ability to predict software cumulative failure time. The performance of our proposed approach has been compared using real-time control and flight dynamic application data sets. Numerical results show that both the goodness-of-fit and the next-step-predictability of our proposed approach have greater accuracy in predicting software cumulative failure time compared to existing approaches

Trends in one-year cumulative incidence of death between 2005 and 2013 among patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in Uganda.

Science.gov (United States)

Bebell, Lisa M; Siedner, Mark J; Musinguzi, Nicholas; Boum, Yap; Bwana, Bosco M; Muyindike, Winnie; Hunt, Peter W; Martin, Jeffrey N; Bangsberg, David R

2017-07-01

Recent ecological data demonstrate improving outcomes for HIV-infected people in sub-Saharan Africa. Recently, Uganda has experienced a resurgence in HIV incidence and prevalence, but trends in HIV-related deaths have not been well described. Data were collected through the Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes (UARTO) Study, an observational longitudinal cohort of Ugandan adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2005 and 2013. We calculated cumulative incidence of death within one year of ART initiation, and fit Poisson models with robust variance estimators to estimate the effect enrollment period on one-year risk of death and loss to follow-up. Of 760 persons in UARTO who started ART, 30 deaths occurred within one year of ART initiation (cumulative incidence 3.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.7-5.6%). Risk of death was highest for those starting ART in 2005 (13.0%, 95% CI 6.0-24.0%), decreased in 2006-2007 to 4% (95% CI 2.0-6.0%), and did not change thereafter ( P = 0.61). These results were robust to adjustment for age, sex, CD4 cell count, viral load, asset wealth, baseline depression, and body mass index. Here, we demonstrate that one-year cumulative incidence of death was high just after free ART rollout, decreased the following year, and remained low thereafter. Once established, ART programs in President's Emergency Fund for AIDS Relief-supported countries can maintain high quality care.

Cumulative irritation potential of topical retinoid formulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Leyden, James J; Grossman, Rachel; Nighland, Marge

2008-08-01

Localized irritation can limit treatment success with topical retinoids such as tretinoin and adapalene. The factors that influence irritant reactions have been shown to include individual skin sensitivity, the particular retinoid and concentration used, and the vehicle formulation. To compare the cutaneous tolerability of tretinoin 0.04% microsphere gel (TMG) with that of adapalene 0.3% gel and a standard tretinoin 0.025% cream. The results of 2 randomized, investigator-blinded studies of 2 to 3 weeks' duration, which utilized a split-face method to compare cumulative irritation scores induced by topical retinoids in subjects with healthy skin, were combined. Study 1 compared TMG 0.04% with adapalene 0.3% gel over 2 weeks, while study 2 compared TMG 0.04% with tretinoin 0.025% cream over 3 weeks. In study 1, TMG 0.04% was associated with significantly lower cumulative scores for erythema, dryness, and burning/stinging than adapalene 0.3% gel. However, in study 2, there were no significant differences in cumulative irritation scores between TMG 0.04% and tretinoin 0.025% cream. Measurements of erythema by a chromameter showed no significant differences between the test formulations in either study. Cutaneous tolerance of TMG 0.04% on the face was superior to that of adapalene 0.3% gel and similar to that of a standard tretinoin cream containing a lower concentration of the drug (0.025%).

Index to AEC Information Booklets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1978-01-01

The U. S. Atomic Energy Commission publishes a series of information booklets for the general public. These booklets explain many aspects of nuclear science. Because these booklets cover such a variety of scientific fields, this index was prepared to help the reader find quickly those booklets that contain the information he needs.

Tests of Cumulative Prospect Theory with graphical displays of probability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael H. Birnbaum

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Recent research reported evidence that contradicts cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic. The same body of research also violates two editing principles of original prospect theory: cancellation (the principle that people delete any attribute that is the same in both alternatives before deciding between them and combination (the principle that people combine branches leading to the same consequence by adding their probabilities. This study was designed to replicate previous results and to test whether the violations of cumulative prospect theory might be eliminated or reduced by using formats for presentation of risky gambles in which cancellation and combination could be facilitated visually. Contrary to the idea that decision behavior contradicting cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic would be altered by use of these formats, however, data with two new graphical formats as well as fresh replication data continued to show the patterns of evidence that violate cumulative prospect theory, the priority heuristic, and the editing principles of combination and cancellation. Systematic violations of restricted branch independence also contradicted predictions of ``stripped'' prospect theory (subjectively weighted additive utility without the editing rules.

CROSSER - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

Science.gov (United States)

Bowerman, P. N.

1994-01-01

The cumulative binomial program, CROSSER, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), can be used independently of one another. CROSSER can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CROSSER calculates the point at which the reliability of a k-out-of-n system equals the common reliability of the n components. It is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The CROSSER program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CROSSER was developed in 1988.

Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrien Querbes

Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

Index to place of publication of ASME Papers, 1978--1988

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Youngen, G.K.

1990-06-01

This index is a list of American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Papers that are reprinted in the ASME Transactions series of journals. ASME Papers are often cited only by their paper number, making it difficult to determine if the article has ever appeared in print in the journal literature. This index will be useful for tracking down those papers published as journal articles by the ASME. It will also serve as a guide for retention for subscribers to the ASME Papers and Transaction Series. Paper numbers that appear in the journals may be weeded from the collection of ASME Papers

Analysis of historical series of industrial demand of energy; Analisi delle serie storiche dei consumi energetici dell`industria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moauro, F. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dip. Energia

1995-03-01

This paper reports a short term analysis of the Italian demand for energy fonts and a check of a statistic model supposing the industrial demand for energy fonts as a function of prices and production, according to neoclassic neoclassic micro economic theory. To this pourpose monthly time series of industrial consumption of main energy fonts in 6 sectors, industrial production indexes in the same sectors and indexes of energy prices (coal, natural gas, oil products, electricity) have been used. The statistic methodology refers to modern analysis of time series and specifically to transfer function models. These ones permit rigorous identification and representation of the most important dynamic relations between dependent variables (production and prices), as relation of an input-output system. The results have shown an important positive correlation between energy consumption with prices. Furthermore, it has been shown the reliability of forecasts and their use as monthly energy indicators.

Characteristics of the transmission of autoregressive sub-patterns in financial time series

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong

2014-09-01

There are many types of autoregressive patterns in financial time series, and they form a transmission process. Here, we define autoregressive patterns quantitatively through an econometrical regression model. We present a computational algorithm that sets the autoregressive patterns as nodes and transmissions between patterns as edges, and then converts the transmission process of autoregressive patterns in a time series into a network. We utilised daily Shanghai (securities) composite index time series to study the transmission characteristics of autoregressive patterns. We found statistically significant evidence that the financial market is not random and that there are similar characteristics between parts and whole time series. A few types of autoregressive sub-patterns and transmission patterns drive the oscillations of the financial market. A clustering effect on fluctuations appears in the transmission process, and certain non-major autoregressive sub-patterns have high media capabilities in the financial time series. Different stock indexes exhibit similar characteristics in the transmission of fluctuation information. This work not only proposes a distinctive perspective for analysing financial time series but also provides important information for investors.

Master index for the carbon dioxide research state-of-the-art report series

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farrell, M P [ed.

1987-03-01

Four State of the Art (SOA) reports, ''Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle,'' ''Direct Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation,'' ''Detecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,'' and ''Projecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,'' and two companion reports, ''Characterization of Information Requirements for Studies of CO/sub 2/ Effects: Water Resources, Agriculture, Fisheries, Forests and Human Health'' and ''Glaciers, Ice Sheets, and Sea Level: Effect of a CO/sub 2/-Induced Climatic Change,'' were published by the US Department of Energy's Carbon Dioxide Research Division. Considerable information on atmospheric carbon dioxide and its possible effects on world climate is summarized in these six volumes. Each volume has its own index, but to make the information that is distributed throughout the six volumes more accessible and usable, comprehensive citation and subject indexes have been compiled. The subject indexes of the individual volumes have been edited to provide a uniformity from volume to volume and also to draw distinctions not needed in the separate volumes' indexes. Also, the comprehensive subject index has been formatted in a matrix arrangement to graphically show the distribution of subject treatment from volume to volume. Other aids include cross references between the scientific and common names of the animals and plants referred to, a glossary of special terms used, tables of data and conversion factors related to the data, and explanations of the acronyms and initialisms used in the texts of the six volumes. The executive summaries of the six volumes are collected and reproduced to allow the readers interested in the contents of one volume to rapidly gain information on the contents of the other volumes.

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Towards Stock Index Case Study : Jakarta Islamic Index 2006-2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lak lak Nashat el Hasanah

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Fluctuation in economy situation is an important indicator for investor decision making. The investor actions are base on the minimum risk while having maximum profit. One of it is observing the condition of macro variables within monetary policy. This research aims to analyze the impact of inflation, money supply, exchange rate, and birate towards stock of jakarta islamic Index. The type data used is times series periode 2006-2014. Multiple linier regression with chow test and dummy variable approach to compare and to know the behavior of each independent variables. The result shows partially that birate and exchange rate negatively impact Jakarta Islamic Index before global monetary crisis in 2008, while inflation and money supply not that significantly impact. After global monetary crisis in 2008, partially, birate variable and money supply significantly giving positive influence to Jakarta Islamic Index, while at same time exchange rate and inflation are not significantly influencial. Simultaneously, inflation, money supply, exchange rate, and birate influence Jakarta islamic Index.

Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

2018-06-01

Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Satellite Image Time Series Decomposition Based on EEMD

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Yun-long Kong

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Satellite Image Time Series (SITS have recently been of great interest due to the emerging remote sensing capabilities for Earth observation. Trend and seasonal components are two crucial elements of SITS. In this paper, a novel framework of SITS decomposition based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD is proposed. EEMD is achieved by sifting an ensemble of adaptive orthogonal components called Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs. EEMD is noise-assisted and overcomes the drawback of mode mixing in conventional Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD. Inspired by these advantages, the aim of this work is to employ EEMD to decompose SITS into IMFs and to choose relevant IMFs for the separation of seasonal and trend components. In a series of simulations, IMFs extracted by EEMD achieved a clear representation with physical meaning. The experimental results of 16-day compositions of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, and Global Environment Monitoring Index (GEMI time series with disturbance illustrated the effectiveness and stability of the proposed approach to monitoring tasks, such as applications for the detection of abrupt changes.

Transmission fidelity is the key to the build-up of cumulative culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Hannah M; Laland, Kevin N

2012-08-05

Many animals have socially transmitted behavioural traditions, but human culture appears unique in that it is cumulative, i.e. human cultural traits increase in diversity and complexity over time. It is often suggested that high-fidelity cultural transmission is necessary for cumulative culture to occur through refinement, a process known as 'ratcheting', but this hypothesis has never been formally evaluated. We discuss processes of information transmission and loss of traits from a cognitive viewpoint alongside other cultural processes of novel invention (generation of entirely new traits), modification (refinement of existing traits) and combination (bringing together two established traits to generate a new trait). We develop a simple cultural transmission model that does not assume major evolutionary changes (e.g. in brain architecture) and show that small changes in the fidelity with which information is passed between individuals can lead to cumulative culture. In comparison, modification and combination have a lesser influence on, and novel invention appears unimportant to, the ratcheting process. Our findings support the idea that high-fidelity transmission is the key driver of human cumulative culture, and that progress in cumulative culture depends more on trait combination than novel invention or trait modification.

A paradox of cumulative culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Yutaka; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

2015-08-21

Culture can grow cumulatively if socially learnt behaviors are improved by individual learning before being passed on to the next generation. Previous authors showed that this kind of learning strategy is unlikely to be evolutionarily stable in the presence of a trade-off between learning and reproduction. This is because culture is a public good that is freely exploited by any member of the population in their model (cultural social dilemma). In this paper, we investigate the effect of vertical transmission (transmission from parents to offspring), which decreases the publicness of culture, on the evolution of cumulative culture in both infinite and finite population models. In the infinite population model, we confirm that culture accumulates largely as long as transmission is purely vertical. It turns out, however, that introduction of even slight oblique transmission drastically reduces the equilibrium level of culture. Even more surprisingly, if the population size is finite, culture hardly accumulates even under purely vertical transmission. This occurs because stochastic extinction due to random genetic drift prevents a learning strategy from accumulating enough culture. Overall, our theoretical results suggest that introducing vertical transmission alone does not really help solve the cultural social dilemma problem. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Child Maltreatment, Impulsivity, and Antisocial Behavior in African-American Children: Moderation Effects from a Cumulative Dopaminergic Gene Index

Science.gov (United States)

Thibodeau, Eric L.; Cicchetti, Dante; Rogosch, Fred A.

2015-01-01

A model examining the effects of an increasing number of maltreatment subtypes experienced on antisocial behavior, as mediated by impulsivity and moderated by a polygenic index of dopaminergic genotypes, was investigated. An African American sample of children (N = 1012, M age = 10.07) with and without maltreatment histories participated. Indicators of aggression, delinquency, and disruptive peer behavior were obtained from peer and counselor rated measures to form a latent variable of antisocial behavior; impulsivity was assessed by counselor report. Five genotypes in four dopaminergic genes (DRD4, DRD2, DAT1, and COMT) conferring heightened environmental sensitivity were combined into one polygenic index. Using SEM, a first-stage, moderated-mediation model was evaluated. Age and sex were entered as covariates, both as main effects and in interaction with maltreatment and the gene index. The model had excellent fit: χ2(32, N =1012) = 86..51, pmaltreatment subtypes on antisocial behavior was partially mediated by impulsivity (β= 0.173, pmaltreatment and impulsivity was stronger as children evinced more differentiating genotypes, thereby strengthening the mediational effect of impulsivity on antisocial behavior. These findings elucidate the manner by which maltreated children develop early signs of antisocial behavior, and the genetic mechanisms involved in greater vulnerability for maladaptation in impulse-control within context of child maltreatment. PMID:26535948

Early community context, genes, and youth body mass index trajectories: an investigation of gene-community interplay over early life course.

Science.gov (United States)

Wickrama, Kandauda K A S; O'Neal, Catherine Walker; Lee, Tae Kyoung

2013-09-01

To investigate additive and interactive influences of community adversity and cumulative genetic sensitivity on youth body mass index (BMI) trajectories over adolescence and young adulthood. We used latent growth curve modeling to examine BMI trajectories over three waves (1995, 2001, and 2008) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (n = 14,563). We measured genetic sensitivity by a cumulative index of genes associated with serotonin and dopamine functions. Community adversity was positively associated with the initial level and rate of change in BMI trajectories over time. Adolescents experiencing community adversity had a higher BMI at Wave 1 and gained weight more quickly than those who did not live in adverse communities. Community adversity interacted with cumulative genetic sensitivity to explain variation in the rate of change in BMI trajectories. The influence of community adversity was greater for those with more sensitivity alleles than those with fewer sensitivity alleles. Gender, race/ethnicity, and family contexts were also associated with youth BMI trajectories. Community adversity in early adolescence, and its interaction with genes, has far-reaching consequences, including the rate of change in BMI trajectories extending into adulthood. This work has practical implications for future intervention/prevention programs. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Structure functions and particle production in the cumulative region: two different exponentials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braun, M.; Vechernin, V.

1997-01-01

In the framework of the recently proposed (QCD-based parton model for the cumulative phenomena in the interactions with nuclei two mechanisms for particle production, direct and spectator ones, are analyzed. It is shown that due to final-state interactions the leading terms of the direct mechanism contribution are cancelled and the spectator mechanism is the dominant one. It leads to a smaller slope of the cumulative particle production rates compared to the slope of the nuclear structure function in the cumulative region x ≥ 1, in agreement with the recent experimental data

Standardized precipitation index based on pearson type III distribution Índice padronizado de precipitação baseado na distribuição pearson tipo III

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel Constantino Blain

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The initial step in calculating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI is to determine a probability density function (pdf that describes the precipitation series under analysis. Once this pdf is determined, the cumulative probability of an observed precipitation amount is computed. The inverse normal function is then applied to the cumulative probability. The result is the SPI. This article assessed the changes in SPI final values, when computed based on Gamma 2-parameters (Gam and Pearson Type III (PE3 distributions (SPIGam and SPIPE3, respectively. Monthly rainfall series, available from five weather stations of the State of São Paulo, were chosen for this study. Considering quantitative and qualitative assessments of goodness-of-fit (evaluated at 1-, 3-, and 6-months precipitation totals, the PE3 distribution seems to be a better choice than the Gam distribution, in describing the long-term rainfall series of the State of São Paulo. In addition, it was observed that the number of SPI time series that could be seen as normally distributed was higher when this drought index was computed from the PE3 distribution. Thus, the use of the Pearson type III distribution within the calculation algorithm of the SPI is recommended in the State of São Paulo.O cálculo do Índice Padronizado de Precipitação (IPP inicia-se com a adoção de uma distribuição paramétrica (dp utilizada para a estimativa das probabilidades de ocorrência associadas a uma série de precipitação pluvial. Após essa escolha, a probabilidade acumulada de ocorrência de um determinado valor de precipitação é calculada. O IPP é obtido após a aplicação da função normal inversa a essa probabilidade acumulada. O artigo avaliou as alterações nos valores finais do IPP, quando calculado com base nas distribuições Gama com dois parâmetros (Gam e Pearson tipo III (PE3; IPPGam e IPPPE3, respectivamente. Utilizaram-se dados de precipitação pluvial de cinco

Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Querbes, A.; Vaesen, K.; Houkes, W.N.

2014-01-01

Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological

Fragmentation of tensor polarized deuterons into cumulative pions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afanas'ev, S.; Arkhipov, V.; Bondarev, V.

1998-01-01

The tensor analyzing power T 20 of the reaction d polarized + A → π - (0 0 ) + X has been measured in the fragmentation of 9 GeV tensor polarized deuterons into pions with momenta from 3.5 to 5.3 GeV/c on hydrogen, beryllium and carbon targets. This kinematic range corresponds to the region of cumulative hadron production with the cumulative variable x c from 1.08 to 1.76. The values of T 20 have been found to be small and consistent with positive values. This contradicts the predictions based on a direct mechanism assuming NN collision between a high momentum nucleon in the deuteron and a target nucleon (NN → NNπ)

Cumulants of heat transfer across nonlinear quantum systems

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Huanan; Agarwalla, Bijay Kumar; Li, Baowen; Wang, Jian-Sheng

2013-12-01

We consider thermal conduction across a general nonlinear phononic junction. Based on two-time observation protocol and the nonequilibrium Green's function method, heat transfer in steady-state regimes is studied, and practical formulas for the calculation of the cumulant generating function are obtained. As an application, the general formalism is used to study anharmonic effects on fluctuation of steady-state heat transfer across a single-site junction with a quartic nonlinear on-site pinning potential. An explicit nonlinear modification to the cumulant generating function exact up to the first order is given, in which the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation symmetry is found still valid. Numerically a self-consistent procedure is introduced, which works well for strong nonlinearity.

Estimating a Smooth Common Transfer Function with a Panel of Time Series - Inflow of Larvae Cod as an Example

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elizabeth Hansen

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} The annual response variable in an ecological monitoring study often relates linearly to the weighted cumulative effect of some daily covariate, after adjusting for other annual covariates. Here we consider the problem of non-parametrically estimating the weights involved in computing the aforementioned cumulative effect, with a panel of short and contemporaneously correlated time series whose responses share the common cumulative effect of a daily covariate. The sequence of (unknown daily weights constitutes the so-called transfer function. Specifically, we consider the problem of estimating a smooth common transfer function shared by a panel of short time series that are contemporaneously correlated. We propose an estimation scheme using a likelihood approach that penalizes the roughness of the common transfer function. We illustrate the proposed method with a simulation study and a biological example of indirectly estimating the spawning date distribution of North Sea cod.

Life Sciences and Allied Fields: Indexes and Abstracts, Book Review Indexes, Serials Bibliographies, Translations. Bibliographic Series No. 32.

Science.gov (United States)

Colpitts, D. Corinne

The information sources for the life sciences and allied fields listed were selected from the holdings of the Arkansas University library. Citations include indexes and abstracts dealing with national and international literature in medicine, the biological sciences, environmental science, veterinary medicine, agriculture, botany, and zoology, as…

Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

2008-05-01

Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

Cumulative watershed effects: a research perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie M. Reid; Robert R. Ziemer

1989-01-01

A cumulative watershed effect (CWE) is any response to multiple land-use activities that is caused by, or results in, altered watershed function. The CWE issue is politically defined, as is the significance of particular impacts. But the processes generating CWEs are the traditional focus of geomorphology and ecology, and have thus been studied for decades. The CWE...

Do Holocaust survivors show increased vulnerability or resilience to post-Holocaust cumulative adversity?

Science.gov (United States)

Shrira, Amit; Palgi, Yuval; Ben-Ezra, Menachem; Shmotkin, Dov

2010-06-01

Prior trauma can hinder coping with additional adversity or inoculate against the effect of recurrent adversity. The present study further addressed this issue by examining whether a subsample of Holocaust survivors and comparison groups, drawn from the Israeli component of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe, were differentially affected by post-Holocaust cumulative adversity. Post-Holocaust cumulative adversity had a stronger effect on the lifetime depression of Holocaust survivors than on that of comparisons. However, comparisons were more negatively affected by post-Holocaust cumulative adversity when examining markers of physical and cognitive functioning. Our findings suggest that previous trauma can both sensitize and immunize, as Holocaust survivors show general resilience intertwined with specific vulnerability when confronted with additional cumulative adversity.

Wealth index and risk of childhood overweight and obesity: evidence from four prospective cohorts in Peru and Vietnam.

Science.gov (United States)

Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M; Miranda, J Jaime; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio

2016-05-01

To estimate the incidence and risk of childhood overweight and obesity according to socioeconomic status in Peruvian and Vietnamese school-aged children. Longitudinal data from the Young Lives study were analyzed. Exposure was wealth index in tertiles. Outcome was overweight and obesity. Cumulative incidence per 100 children-years, relative risks (RR), and 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI) were calculated. A hierarchical approach, including child- and family-related variables, was followed to construct multivariable models. The cumulative incidence of overweight and obesity was 4.8 (95 % CI 4.1-5.5) and 1.7 (95 % CI 1.3-2.2) in the younger and older Peruvian cohort, respectively; and in Vietnam 1.5 (95 % CI 1.2-1.8) and 0.3 (95 % CI 0.2-0.5), respectively. The incidence of overweight and obesity was higher at the top wealth index tertile in all samples. In the older cohorts, comparing highest versus bottom wealth index tertile, RR of overweight and obesity was four to nine times higher: 4.25 in Peru (95 % CI 2.21-8.18) and 9.11 in Vietnam (95 % CI 1.07-77.42). The results provide important information for childhood obesity prevention in countries moving ahead with economic, epidemiological and nutritional transitions.

Cumulative second-harmonic generation of Lamb waves propagating in a two-layered solid plate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiang Yanxun; Deng Mingxi

2008-01-01

The physical process of cumulative second-harmonic generation of Lamb waves propagating in a two-layered solid plate is presented by using the second-order perturbation and the technique of nonlinear reflection of acoustic waves at an interface. In general, the cumulative second-harmonic generation of a dispersive guided wave propagation does not occur. However, the present paper shows that the second-harmonic of Lamb wave propagation arising from the nonlinear interaction of the partial bulk acoustic waves and the restriction of the three boundaries of the solid plates does have a cumulative growth effect if some conditions are satisfied. Through boundary condition and initial condition of excitation, the analytical expression of cumulative second-harmonic of Lamb waves propagation is determined. Numerical results show the cumulative effect of Lamb waves on second-harmonic field patterns. (classical areas of phenomenology)

Steps and pips in the history of the cumulative recorder.

OpenAIRE

Lattal, Kennon A

2004-01-01

From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This review traces the evolution of the cumulative recorder from Skinner's early modified kymographs through various models developed by Skinner and his co...

Volatility Behaviors of Financial Time Series by Percolation System on Sierpinski Carpet Lattice

Science.gov (United States)

Pei, Anqi; Wang, Jun

2015-01-01

The financial time series is simulated and investigated by the percolation system on the Sierpinski carpet lattice, where percolation is usually employed to describe the behavior of connected clusters in a random graph, and the Sierpinski carpet lattice is a graph which corresponds the fractal — Sierpinski carpet. To study the fluctuation behavior of returns for the financial model and the Shanghai Composite Index, we establish a daily volatility measure — multifractal volatility (MFV) measure to obtain MFV series, which have long-range cross-correlations with squared daily return series. The autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model is used to analyze the MFV series, which performs better when compared to other volatility series. By a comparative study of the multifractality and volatility analysis of the data, the simulation data of the proposed model exhibits very similar behaviors to those of the real stock index, which indicates somewhat rationality of the model to the market application.

Large daily stock variation is associated with cardiovascular mortality in two cities of Guangdong, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Hualiang; Zhang, Yonghui; Xu, Yanjun; Liu, Tao; Xiao, Jianpeng; Luo, Yuan; Xu, Xiaojun; He, Yanhui; Ma, Wenjun

2013-01-01

The current study aimed to examine the effects of daily change of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index on cardiovascular mortality in Guangzhou and Taishan, China. Daily mortality and stock performance data during 2006-2010 were collected to construct the time series for the two cities. A distributed lag non-linear model was utilized to examine the effect of daily stock index changes on cardiovascular mortality after controlling for potential confounding factors. We observed a delayed non-linear effect of the stock index change on cardiovascular mortality: both rising and declining of the stock index were associated with increased cardiovascular deaths. In Guangzhou, the 15-25 lag days cumulative relative risk of an 800 index drop was 2.08 (95% CI: 1.38-3.14), and 2.38 (95% CI: 1.31-4.31) for an 800 stock index increase on the cardiovascular mortality, respectively. In Taishan, the cumulative relative risk over 15-25 days lag was 1.65 (95% CI: 1.13-2.42) for an 800 index drop and 2.08 (95% CI: 1.26-3.42) for an 800 index rising, respectively. Large ups and downs in daily stock index might be important predictor of cardiovascular mortality.

Entropy correlation distance method. The Euro introduction effect on the Consumer Price Index

Science.gov (United States)

Miśkiewicz, Janusz

2010-04-01

The idea of entropy was introduced in thermodynamics, but it can be used in time series analysis. There are various ways to define and measure the entropy of a system. Here the so called Theil index, which is often used in economy and finance, is applied as it were an entropy measure. In this study the time series are remapped through the Theil index. Then the linear correlation coefficient between the remapped time series is evaluated as a function of time and time window size and the corresponding statistical distance is defined. The results are compared with the the usual correlation distance measure for the time series themselves. As an example this entropy correlation distance method (ECDM) is applied to several series, as those of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in order to test some so called globalisation processes. Distance matrices are calculated in order to construct two network structures which are next analysed. The role of two different time scales introduced by the Theil index and a correlation coefficient is also discussed. The evolution of the mean distance between the most developed countries is presented and the globalisation periods of the prices discussed. It is finally shown that the evolution of mean distance between the most developed countries on several networks follows the process of introducing the European currency - the Euro. It is contrasted to the GDP based analysis. It is stressed that the entropy correlation distance measure is more suitable in detecting significant changes, like a globalisation process than the usual statistical (correlation based) measure.

LAW DISTRIBUTION APPROXIMATION ON EIGENSTATE ERRORS OF ADS-B BASED ON CUMULANT ANALYSIS OF ADS-B-RAD SYSTEM DATA DISPARITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article deals with a new approximation method for enhanced accuracy measurement system errors distribu- tion. The method is based upon the mistie analysis of this system and a more robust design data. The method is considered on the example of comparison of Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B with ground radar warning sys- tem used at present. The peculiarity of the considered problem is that the target parameter (aircraft swerve value may dras- tically change in the scale of both measurement systems errors during observation. That is why it is impossible to determine the position of the aircraft by repeatedly observing it with ground radar warning system. It is only possible to compare the systems’ one-shot measurements, which are called errors here. The article considers that the distribution of robust meas- urement system errors probability density (the system that has been continuously in operation is known, the histogram of errors is given and it is needed to obtain an asymptotic estimate of errors occurrence distribution for a new improved meas- urement system.This approach is based on cumulant analysis of measurement systems error distribution functions. The approach allows us to carry out the reduction of corresponding infinite series properly. The author shows that due to measurement systems independency, their errors distribution cumulants are connected by a simple ratio, which allow to calculate the val- ues easily. To reconstruct distribution initial form one should use Edgeworth’s asymptotic series, where a normal distribu- tion derivative is used as a basis function. The latter is proportional to Hermitian polynomial, thus the series can be consid- ered as an orthogonal decomposition.The author reveals the results of coordinate error component distribution calculation; the error is measured when the normal line lies towards aircraft path, using error statistics experimental information obtained in ”RI of

A System for Acquisition, Processing and Visualization of Image Time Series from Multiple Camera Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cemal Melih Tanis

2018-06-01

Full Text Available A system for multiple camera networks is proposed for continuous monitoring of ecosystems by processing image time series. The system is built around the Finnish Meteorological Image PROcessing Toolbox (FMIPROT, which includes data acquisition, processing and visualization from multiple camera networks. The toolbox has a user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI for which only minimal computer knowledge and skills are required to use it. Images from camera networks are acquired and handled automatically according to the common communication protocols, e.g., File Transfer Protocol (FTP. Processing features include GUI based selection of the region of interest (ROI, automatic analysis chain, extraction of ROI based indices such as the green fraction index (GF, red fraction index (RF, blue fraction index (BF, green-red vegetation index (GRVI, and green excess (GEI index, as well as a custom index defined by a user-provided mathematical formula. Analysis results are visualized on interactive plots both on the GUI and hypertext markup language (HTML reports. The users can implement their own developed algorithms to extract information from digital image series for any purpose. The toolbox can also be run in non-GUI mode, which allows running series of analyses in servers unattended and scheduled. The system is demonstrated using an environmental camera network in Finland.

A cointegration analysis of wine stock indexes

OpenAIRE

Sabina Introvigne; Emanuele Bacchiocchi; Daniela Vandone

2017-01-01

This paper analyzes price patterns and long-run relationships for both fine wine and non-fine wine, with the aim to highlight price dynamics and co-movements between series, and to exploit potential diversification benefits. Data are from Liv-Ex 100 Fine Wine for fine wine, the Mediobanca Global Wine Industry Share Price for normal wine, and the MSCI World Index as a proxy of the overall stock market. Engle-Granger and Johansen tests were used to detect whether and to what extent the series c...

Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frölicher, Thomas L; Paynter, David J

2015-01-01

The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and nearly independent of the emissions scenario. Here, we use simulations of the Earth System Model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to show that global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.5 °C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2 °C global warming, implying an increase in the coefficient relating global warming to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-centennial timescales. The simulations also suggest a 20% lower quota on cumulative carbon emissions allowed to achieve a policy-driven limit on global warming. ESM estimates from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5–ESMs) qualitatively agree on this result, whereas Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) simulations, used in the IPCC 5th assessment report to assess the robustness of TCRE on multi-centennial timescales, suggest a post-emissions decrease in temperature. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the smaller simulated realized warming fraction in CMIP5–ESMs, including GFDL ESM2M, than in EMICs when carbon emissions increase. The temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different phases and the linear TCRE framework is only valid during the first phase when carbon emissions increase. For longer timescales, when emissions tape off, two new metrics are introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions: the equilibrium climate response to cumulative carbon emissions and the multi-millennial climate response to cumulative carbon emissions. (letter)

Use of cumulative mortality data in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice: observational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrance, R A; Dorsch, M F; Sapsford, R J; Mackintosh, A F; Greenwood, D C; Jackson, B M; Morrell, C; Robinson, M B; Hall, A S

2001-08-11

Use of cumulative mortality adjusted for case mix in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice. Observational study. 20 hospitals across the former Yorkshire region. All 2153 consecutive patients with confirmed acute myocardial infarction identified during three months. Variable life-adjusted displays showing cumulative differences between observed and expected mortality of patients; expected mortality calculated from risk model based on admission characteristics of age, heart rate, and systolic blood pressure. The performance of two individual hospitals over three months was examined as an example. One, the smallest district hospital in the region, had a series of 30 consecutive patients but had five more deaths than predicted. The variable life-adjusted display showed minimal variation from that predicted for the first 15 patients followed by a run of unexpectedly high mortality. The second example was the main tertiary referral centre for the region, which admitted 188 consecutive patients. The display showed a period of apparently poor performance followed by substantial improvement, where the plot rose steadily from a cumulative net lives saved of -4 to 7. These variations in patient outcome are unlikely to have been revealed during conventional audit practice. Variable life-adjusted display has been integrated into surgical care as a graphical display of risk-adjusted survival for individual surgeons or centres. In combination with a simple risk model, it may have a role in monitoring performance and outcome in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

The Scarring Effects of Bankruptcy: Cumulative Disadvantage across Credit and Labor Markets

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Maroto, Michelle

2012-01-01

As the recent economic crisis has demonstrated, inequality often spans credit and labor markets, supporting a system of cumulative disadvantage. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this research draws on stigma, cumulative disadvantage and status characteristics theories to examine whether credit and labor markets intersect…

Quantification of tillage, plant cover, and cumulative rainfall effects on soil surface microrelief by statistical, geostatistical and fractal indices

Science.gov (United States)

Paz-Ferreiro, J.; Bertol, I.; Vidal Vázquez, E.

2008-07-01

Changes in soil surface microrelief with cumulative rainfall under different tillage systems and crop cover conditions were investigated in southern Brazil. Surface cover was none (fallow) or the crop succession maize followed by oats. Tillage treatments were: 1) conventional tillage on bare soil (BS), 2) conventional tillage (CT), 3) minimum tillage (MT) and 4) no tillage (NT) under maize and oats. Measurements were taken with a manual relief meter on small rectangular grids of 0.234 and 0.156 m2, throughout growing season of maize and oats, respectively. Each data set consisted of 200 point height readings, the size of the smallest cells being 3×5 cm during maize and 2×5 cm during oats growth periods. Random Roughness (RR), Limiting Difference (LD), Limiting Slope (LS) and two fractal parameters, fractal dimension (D) and crossover length (l) were estimated from the measured microtopographic data sets. Indices describing the vertical component of soil roughness such as RR, LD and l generally decreased with cumulative rain in the BS treatment, left fallow, and in the CT and MT treatments under maize and oats canopy. However, these indices were not substantially affected by cumulative rain in the NT treatment, whose surface was protected with previous crop residues. Roughness decay from initial values was larger in the BS treatment than in CT and MT treatments. Moreover, roughness decay generally tended to be faster under maize than under oats. The RR and LD indices decreased quadratically, while the l index decreased exponentially in the tilled, BS, CT and MT treatments. Crossover length was sensitive to differences in soil roughness conditions allowing a description of microrelief decay due to rainfall in the tilled treatments, although better correlations between cumulative rainfall and the most commonly used indices RR and LD were obtained. At the studied scale, parameters l and D have been found to be useful in interpreting the configuration properties of

Glycemic index, glycemic load and mammographic breast density: the EPIC Florence longitudinal study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanna Masala

Full Text Available A few studies have evaluated the association between diet and mammographic breast density (MBD and results are inconsistent. MBD, a well-recognized risk factor for breast cancer, has been proposed as a marker of cumulative exposure to hormones and growth factors. Diets with a high glycemic index (GI or glycemic load (GL may increase breast cancer risk, via an effect on the insulin-like growth factor axis. We have investigated the association between carbohydrate intake, GI, GL and MBD in a prospective study. We identified a large series of women, in the frame of the EPIC-Florence cohort, with a mammogram taken five years after enrolment, when detailed information on dietary and lifestyle habits and anthropometric measurements had been collected. Mammograms have been retrieved (1,668, 83% and MBD assessed according to Wolfe's classification. We compared women with high MBD (P2+DY Wolfe's categories with those with low MBD (N1+P1 through logistic models adjusted for age, education, body mass index, menopause, number of children, breast feeding, physical activity, non-alcohol energy, fibers, saturated fat and alcohol. A direct association between GL and high MBD emerged in the highest quintile of intake in comparison with the lowest quintile (OR = 1.73, 95%CI 1.13-2.67, p for trend = 0.048 while no association with glycemic index was evident. These results were confirmed after exclusion of women reporting to be on a diet or affected with diabetes, and when Hormone Replacement Therapy at the date of mammographic examination used to assess MBD was considered. The effect was particularly evident among leaner women, although no interaction was found. A positive association was suggested for increasing simple sugar and total carbohydrates intakes limited to the highest quintiles. In this Italian population we observed an association between glycemic load, total and rapidly absorbed carbohydrates and high MBD. These novel results warrant further

Problems of describing the cumulative effect in relativistic nuclear physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldin, A.M.

1979-01-01

The problem of describing the cumulative effect i.e., the particle production on nuclei in the range kinematically forbidden for one-nucleon collisions, is studied. Discrimination of events containing cumulative particles fixes configurations in the wave function of a nucleus, when several nucleons are closely spaced and their quark-parton components are collectivized. For the cumulative processes under consideration large distances between quarks are very important. The fundamental facts and theoretical interpretation of the quantum field theory and of the condensed media theory in the relativistic nuclear physics are presented in brief. The collisions of the relativistic nuclei with low momentum transfers is considered in a fast moving coordinate system. The basic parameter determining this type of collisions is the energy of nucleon binding in nuclei. It has been shown that the short-range correlation model provides a good presentation of many characteristics of the multiple particle production and it may be regarded as an approximate universal property of hadron interactions

Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index predicts prognosis of laryngopharyngeal cancer treated with radiation therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Takemura, Kazuya; Takenaka, Yukinori; Ashida, Naoki; Shimizu, Kotaro; Oya, Ryohei; Kitamura, Takahiro; Yamamoto, Yoshifumi; Uno, Atsuhiko

2017-12-01

To examine the ability of comorbidity indices to predict the prognosis of laryngopharyngeal cancer and their association with treatment modalities. This retrospective study included 198 patients with laryngeal, hypopharyngeal, and oropharyngeal cancers. The effect of comorbidity indices on overall survival between surgery and (chemo)-radiation therapy ((C)RT) groups was analyzed. The cumulative incidence rates for cancer mortality and other mortalities according to the age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (ACCI) and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were compared. Univariate survival analyses showed a significant association between the ACCI and overall survival in the (C)RT group, but not in the surgery group. The association between the CCI and overall survival was not significant in either group. In multivariate analyses, a high ACCI score was an independent prognostic factor in the (C)RT group (HR 2.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28-6.49), but not in the surgery group (HR 1.39, 95%CI 0.27-5.43). The higher ACCI group had increased mortality from other causes compared with the lower ACCI group (5-year cumulative incidence, 8.5% and 17.8%, respectively, p = .003). The ACCI was a better prognostic factor than the CCI. Surgery may be more beneficial than radiation for patients with a high ACCI.

Indexation and causation of financial markets

CERN Document Server

Tanokura, Yoko

2015-01-01

This book presents a new statistical method of constructing a price index of a financial asset where the price distributions are skewed and heavy-tailed and investigates the effectiveness of the method. In order to fully reflect the movements of prices or returns on a financial asset, the index should reflect their distributions. However, they are often heavy-tailed and possibly skewed, and identifying them directly is not easy. This book first develops an index construction method depending on the price distributions, by using nonstationary time series analysis. Firstly, the long-term trend of the distributions of the optimal Box–Cox transformed prices is estimated by fitting a trend model with time-varying observation noises. By applying state space modeling, the estimation is performed and missing observations are automatically interpolated. Finally, the index is defined by taking the inverse Box–Cox transformation of the optimal long-term trend. This book applies the method to various financial data. ...

Energy Current Cumulants in One-Dimensional Systems in Equilibrium

Science.gov (United States)

Dhar, Abhishek; Saito, Keiji; Roy, Anjan

2018-06-01

A recent theory based on fluctuating hydrodynamics predicts that one-dimensional interacting systems with particle, momentum, and energy conservation exhibit anomalous transport that falls into two main universality classes. The classification is based on behavior of equilibrium dynamical correlations of the conserved quantities. One class is characterized by sound modes with Kardar-Parisi-Zhang scaling, while the second class has diffusive sound modes. The heat mode follows Lévy statistics, with different exponents for the two classes. Here we consider heat current fluctuations in two specific systems, which are expected to be in the above two universality classes, namely, a hard particle gas with Hamiltonian dynamics and a harmonic chain with momentum conserving stochastic dynamics. Numerical simulations show completely different system-size dependence of current cumulants in these two systems. We explain this numerical observation using a phenomenological model of Lévy walkers with inputs from fluctuating hydrodynamics. This consistently explains the system-size dependence of heat current fluctuations. For the latter system, we derive the cumulant-generating function from a more microscopic theory, which also gives the same system-size dependence of cumulants.

Preference, resistance to change, and the cumulative decision model.

Science.gov (United States)

Grace, Randolph C

2018-01-01

According to behavioral momentum theory (Nevin & Grace, 2000a), preference in concurrent chains and resistance to change in multiple schedules are independent measures of a common construct representing reinforcement history. Here I review the original studies on preference and resistance to change in which reinforcement variables were manipulated parametrically, conducted by Nevin, Grace and colleagues between 1997 and 2002, as well as more recent research. The cumulative decision model proposed by Grace and colleagues for concurrent chains is shown to provide a good account of both preference and resistance to change, and is able to predict the increased sensitivity to reinforcer rate and magnitude observed with constant-duration components. Residuals from fits of the cumulative decision model to preference and resistance to change data were positively correlated, supporting the prediction of behavioral momentum theory. Although some questions remain, the learning process assumed by the cumulative decision model, in which outcomes are compared against a criterion that represents the average outcome value in the current context, may provide a plausible model for the acquisition of differential resistance to change. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

A time series model: First-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1))

Science.gov (United States)

Simarmata, D. M.; Novkaniza, F.; Widyaningsih, Y.

2017-07-01

Nonnegative integer-valued time series arises in many applications. A time series model: first-order Integer-valued AutoRegressive (INAR(1)) is constructed by binomial thinning operator to model nonnegative integer-valued time series. INAR (1) depends on one period from the process before. The parameter of the model can be estimated by Conditional Least Squares (CLS). Specification of INAR(1) is following the specification of (AR(1)). Forecasting in INAR(1) uses median or Bayesian forecasting methodology. Median forecasting methodology obtains integer s, which is cumulative density function (CDF) until s, is more than or equal to 0.5. Bayesian forecasting methodology forecasts h-step-ahead of generating the parameter of the model and parameter of innovation term using Adaptive Rejection Metropolis Sampling within Gibbs sampling (ARMS), then finding the least integer s, where CDF until s is more than or equal to u . u is a value taken from the Uniform(0,1) distribution. INAR(1) is applied on pneumonia case in Penjaringan, Jakarta Utara, January 2008 until April 2016 monthly.

The role of factorial cumulants in reactor neutron noise theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colombino, A.; Pacilio, N.; Sena, G.

1979-01-01

The physical meaning and the combinatorial implications of the factorial cumulant of a state variable such as the number of neutrons or the number of neutron counts are specified. Features of the presentation are: (1) the fission process is treated in its entirety without the customary binary emission restriction, (b) the introduction of the factorial cumulants helps in reducing the complexity of the mathematical problems, (c) all the solutions can be obtained analytically. Only the ergodic hypothesis for the neutron population evolution is dealt with. (author)

Acute and Cumulative Effects of Unmodified 50-nm Nano-ZnO on Mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Tao; Zhang, Shu-Hui; Zhang, Ji-Liang; Hao, Xue-Qin; Yang, Fan; Zhang, Cai; Yang, Zi-Jun; Zhang, Meng-Yu; Wang, Jie

2018-01-02

Nanometer zinc oxide (nano-ZnO) is widely used in diverse industrial and agricultural fields. Due to the extensive contact humans have with these particles, it is crucial to understand the potential effects that nano-ZnO have on human health. Currently, information related to the toxicity and mechanisms of nano-ZnO is limited. The aim of the present study was to investigate acute and cumulative toxic effects of 50-nm unmodified ZnO in mice. This investigation will seek to establish median lethal dose (LD50), a cumulative coefficient, and target organs. The acute and cumulative toxicity was investigated by Karber's method and via a dose-increasing method, respectively. During the experiment, clinical signs, mortality, body weights, hematology, serum biochemistry, gross pathology, organ weight, and histopathology were examined. The LD50 was 5177-mg/kg·bw; the 95% confidence limits for the LD50 were 5116-5238-mg/kg·bw. It could be concluded that the liver, kidney, lung, and gastrointestinal tract were target organs for the 50-nm nano-ZnO acute oral treatment. The cumulative coefficient (K) was 1.9 which indicated that the cumulative toxicity was apparent. The results also indicated that the liver, kidney, lung, and pancrea were target organs for 50-nm nano-ZnO cumulative oral exposure and might be target organs for subchronic and chronic toxicity of oral administered 50-nm ZnO.

Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen) advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California. PMID:29659481

Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raoul S. Liévanos

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California.

Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California.

Science.gov (United States)

Liévanos, Raoul S

2018-04-16

The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen) advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California.

Research on the Characteristics and Mechanism of the Cumulative Release of Antimony from an Antimony Smelting Slag Stacking Area under Rainfall Leaching

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yingying; Deng, Renjian

2017-01-01

We aimed to study the characteristics and the mechanism of the cumulative release of antimony at an antimony smelting slag stacking area in southern China. A series of dynamic and static leaching experiments to simulate the effects of rainfall were carried out. The results showed that the release of antimony from smelting slag increased with a decrease in the solid-liquid ratio, and the maximum accumulated release was found to be 42.13 mg Sb/kg waste and 34.26 mg Sb/kg waste with a solid/liquid ratio of 1 : 20; the maximum amount of antimony was released within 149–420 μm size fraction with 7.09 mg/L of the cumulative leaching. Also, the antimony release was the greatest and most rapid at pH 7.0 with the minimum release found at pH 4.0. With an increase in rainfall duration, the antimony release increased. The influence of variation in rainfall intensity on the release of antimony from smelting slag was small. PMID:28804669

Turning stumbling blocks into stepping stones in the analysis of cumulative impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie M. Reid

2004-01-01

Federal and state legislation, such as the National Environmental Policy Act and the California Environmental Quality Act, require that responsible agency staff consider the cumulative impacts of proposed activities before permits are issued for certain kinds of public or private projects. The Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ 1997) defined a cumulative impact as...

Experience of cumulative effects assessment in the UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piper Jake

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Cumulative effects assessment (CEA is a development of environmental impact assessment which attempts to take into account the wider picture of what impacts may affect the environment as a result of either multiple or linear projects, or development plans. CEA is seen as a further valuable tool in promoting sustainable development. The broader canvas upon which the assessment is made leads to a suite of issues such as complexity in methods and assessment of significance, the desirability of co-operation between developers and other parties, new ways of addressing mitigation and monitoring. After outlining the legislative position and the process of CEA, this paper looks at three cases studies in the UK where cumulative assessment has been carried out - the cases concern wind farms, major infrastructure and off-shore developments.

A Review of Non-Chemical Stressors and Their Importance in Cumulative Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Cumulative exposure/risk assessments need to include non-chemical stressors as well as human activities and chemical data. Multiple stressor research can offer information on the interactions between chemical and non-chemical stressors needed for cumulative risk assessment resea...

The Application of Box–Cox Transformation to Determine the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI, the Standardised Discharge Index (SDI and to Identify Drought Events: Case Study in Eastern Kujawy (Central Poland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bartczak Arkadiusz

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The article presents the results of research into the transformation of series of hydro-meteorological data for determining dry periods with the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI and the Standardised Discharge Index (SDI. Time series from eight precipitation stations and five series of river discharge data in Eastern Kujawy (central Poland were analysed for 1951–2010. The frequency distribution of the series for their convergence with the normal distribution was tested with the Shapiro–Wilk test and homogeneity with the Bartlett's test. The transformation of the series was done with the Box–Cox technique, which made it possible to homogenise the series in terms of variance. In Poland, the technique has never been used to determine the SPI. After the transformation the distributions of virtually all series complied with the normal distribution and were homogeneous. Moreover, a statistically significant correlation between the δ transformation parameter and the skewness of the series of monthly precipitation was observed. It was similar for the series of mean monthly discharges in the winter half-year and the hydrological year. The analysis indicates an alternate occurrence of dry and wet periods both in case of precipitation and run-offs. Drought periods coincided with low flow periods. Thus, the fluctuations tend to affect the development of agriculture more than long-term ones.

VALUATION OR ORAL HYGIENE CAPACITY ON WORKERS SUFFERING OF CUMULATIVE TRAUMA DISORDERS

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Márcia Bianchi

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Through interviews with patients with cumulative trauma disorders, pathological conditions known as work related upper limb disorder (WRULD users of Sao Paulo’s workers health reference centers, the most frequently daily difficulty were related. Wue observed that most of them (76.3% can not perform their toothbrushing satisfactorily, mainly due to complaints of pain and physical limitations caused by his illness. This finding could be strengthened by raising the conditions of oral hygiene based on the index of "O'Leary", which were detected high levels of plaque (mean = 76.96%. In view of this, special attention should be paid to these workers so that they can perform their oral hygiene properly without Avaliação da capacidade de higiene bucal em portadores de TMC burden on their upper limbs affected, preventing thus possible oral problems. Dentist's role will therefore beyond teaching the techniques of brushing, but to develop sensitivity to detect limitations and difficulties of their patients, to offer alternatives to minimize discomfort and optimize techniques for patients with brushing WRULD.

The EPA's human exposure research program for assessing cumulative risk in communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D

2010-06-01

Communities are faced with challenges in identifying and prioritizing environmental issues, taking actions to reduce their exposures, and determining their effectiveness for reducing human health risks. Additional challenges include determining what scientific tools are available and most relevant, and understanding how to use those tools; given these barriers, community groups tend to rely more on risk perception than science. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and collaborators are developing and applying tools (models, data, methods) for enhancing cumulative risk assessments. The NERL's "Cumulative Communities Research Program" focuses on key science questions: (1) How to systematically identify and prioritize key chemical stressors within a given community?; (2) How to develop estimates of exposure to multiple stressors for individuals in epidemiologic studies?; and (3) What tools can be used to assess community-level distributions of exposures for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of risk reduction strategies? This paper provides community partners and scientific researchers with an understanding of the NERL research program and other efforts to address cumulative community risks; and key research needs and opportunities. Some initial findings include the following: (1) Many useful tools exist for components of risk assessment, but need to be developed collaboratively with end users and made more comprehensive and user-friendly for practical application; (2) Tools for quantifying cumulative risks and impact of community risk reduction activities are also needed; (3) More data are needed to assess community- and individual-level exposures, and to link exposure-related information with health effects; and (4) Additional research is needed to incorporate risk-modifying factors ("non-chemical stressors") into cumulative risk assessments. The products of this

THE DETERMINANTS OF STOCK MARKET INDEX: VAR APPROACH TO TURKISH STOCK MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eşref Savaş Başçı

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we examined the relationship between ISE 100 Index and a set of four macroeconomic variables using Vector Autoregressive (VAR model. Variables we used in our model are Exchange, Gold, Import, Export and ISE 100 Index. ISE 100 Index is a dependent variable and the others are independent variables. In this study we used 190 observations for the sample period from January, 1996 to October, 2011. All variables have seasonal movements. After seasonal adjustments, all series have had stationary in their first difference. After determining optimal lag order, it was given one standard deviation shock for each series and their response. And in variance decomposition carried out subsequently, it has been determined that especially as of the second default of exchange, it was explained 31% by share indices.

The Role of Cumulative Trauma, Betrayal, and Appraisals in Understanding Trauma Symptomatology.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Christina Gamache; Cromer, Lisa Demarni; Deprince, Anne P; Freyd, Jennifer J

2013-03-01

Poor psychological outcomes are common among trauma survivors, yet not all survivors experience adverse sequelae. The current study examined links between cumulative trauma exposure as a function of the level of betrayal (measured by the relational closeness of the survivor and the perpetrator), trauma appraisals, gender, and trauma symptoms. Participants were 273 college students who reported experiencing at least one traumatic event on a trauma checklist. Three cumulative indices were constructed to assess the number of different types of traumas experienced that were low (LBTs), moderate (MBTs), or high in betrayal (HBTs). Greater trauma exposure was related to more symptoms of depression, dissociation, and PTSD, with exposure to HBTs contributing the most. Women were more likely to experience HBTs than men, but there were no gender differences in trauma-related symptoms. Appraisals of trauma were predictive of trauma-related symptoms over and above the effects explained by cumulative trauma at each level of betrayal. The survivor's relationship with the perpetrator, the effect of cumulative trauma, and their combined impact on trauma symptomatology are discussed.

Applying Markov Chains for NDVI Time Series Forecasting of Latvian Regions

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Stepchenko Arthur

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Time series of earth observation based estimates of vegetation inform about variations in vegetation at the scale of Latvia. A vegetation index is an indicator that describes the amount of chlorophyll (the green mass and shows the relative density and health of vegetation. NDVI index is an important variable for vegetation forecasting and management of various problems, such as climate change monitoring, energy usage monitoring, managing the consumption of natural resources, agricultural productivity monitoring, drought monitoring and forest fire detection. In this paper, we make a one-step-ahead prediction of 7-daily time series of NDVI index using Markov chains. The choice of a Markov chain is due to the fact that a Markov chain is a sequence of random variables where each variable is located in some state. And a Markov chain contains probabilities of moving from one state to other.

Case series and descriptive cohort studies in neurosurgery: the confusion and solution.

Science.gov (United States)

Esene, Ignatius N; Ngu, Julius; El Zoghby, Mohamed; Solaroglu, Ihsan; Sikod, Anna M; Kotb, Ali; Dechambenoit, Gilbert; El Husseiny, Hossam

2014-08-01

Case series (CS) are well-known designs in contemporary use in neurosurgery but are sometimes used in contexts that are incompatible with their true meaning as defined by epidemiologists. This inconsistent, inappropriate and incorrect use, and mislabeling impairs the appropriate indexing and sorting of evidence. Using PubMed, we systematically identified published articles that had "case series" in the "title" in 15 top-ranked neurosurgical journals from January 2008 to December 2012. The abstracts and/or full articles were scanned to identify those with descriptions of the principal method as being "case series" and then classified as "true case series" or "non-case series" by two independent investigators with 100 % inter-rater agreement. Sixty-four articles had the label "case series" in their "titles." Based on the definition of "case series" and our appraisal of the articles using Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) guidelines, 18 articles (28.13 %) were true case series, while 46 (71.87 %) were mislabeled. Thirty-five articles (54.69 %) mistook retrospective (descriptive) cohorts for CS. CS are descriptive with an outcome-based sampling, while "descriptive cohorts" have an exposure-based sampling of patients, followed over time to assess outcome(s). A comparison group is not a defining feature of a cohort study and distinguishes descriptive from analytic cohorts. A distinction between a case report, case series, and descriptive cohorts is absolutely necessary to enable the appropriate indexing, sorting, and application of evidence. Researchers need better training in methods and terminology, and editors and reviewers should scrutinize more carefully manuscripts claiming to be "case series" studies.

Weak convergence of the function-indexed integrated periodogram for infinite variance processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Can, Umut; Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Samorodnitsky, Gennady

2010-01-01

constitute α-stable processes which have representations as infinite Fourier series with i.i.d. α-stable coefficients. The cases α ∈ (0, 1) and α ∈ [1, 2) are dealt with by rather different methods and under different assumptions on the classes of functions. For example, in contrast to the case α ∈ (0, 1......In this paper, we study the weak convergence of the integrated periodogram indexed by classes of functions for linear processes with symmetric α-stable innovations. Under suitable summability conditions on the series of the Fourier coefficients of the index functions, we show that the weak limits...

Ovarian response and cumulative live birth rate of women undergoing in-vitro fertilisation who had discordant anti-Mullerian hormone and antral follicle count measurements: a retrospective study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hang Wun Raymond Li

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To evaluate ovarian response and cumulative live birth rate of women undergoing in-vitro fertilization (IVF treatment who had discordant baseline serum anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH level and antral follicle count (AFC. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study on 1,046 women undergoing the first IVF cycle in Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong. Subjects receiving standard IVF treatment with the GnRH agonist long protocol were classified according to their quartiles of baseline AMH and AFC measurements after GnRH agonist down-regulation and before commencing ovarian stimulation. The number of retrieved oocytes, ovarian sensitivity index (OSI and cumulative live-birth rate for each classification category were compared. RESULTS: Among our studied subjects, 32.2% were discordant in their AMH and AFC quartiles. Among them, those having higher AMH within the same AFC quartile had higher number of retrieved oocytes and cumulative live-birth rate. Subjects discordant in AMH and AFC had intermediate OSI which differed significantly compared to those concordant in AMH and AFC on either end. OSI of those discordant in AMH and AFC did not differ significantly whether either AMH or AFC quartile was higher than the other. CONCLUSIONS: When AMH and AFC are discordant, the ovarian responsiveness is intermediate between that when both are concordant on either end. Women having higher AMH within the same AFC quartile had higher number of retrieved oocytes and cumulative live-birth rate.

14 CFR Section 18 - Objective Classification-Cumulative Effect of Changes in Accounting Principles

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... of Changes in Accounting Principles Section 18 Section 18 Aeronautics and Space OFFICE OF THE... Objective Classification—Cumulative Effect of Changes in Accounting Principles 98Cumulative Effect of Changes in Accounting Principles. Record here the difference between the amount of retained earnings at...

Some Characteristics Of the Financial Data Series

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Gheorghe Săvoiu

2013-05-01

Full Text Available This paper attempts to delineate from a theoretical of view the financial data series relative to other statistical data, starting from the financial econometrics’ models and from the resulting features of the specific descriptive statistics’ analysis of these characteristic series. From the analysis of these financial data during either very short and short or medium periods of time or from the information provided by the website of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB, the trend of great values of kurtosis or eccentricity and skewness or asymmetry of series appears as a characteristic tendency. During a long period of time, between 1920 and 2008, this tendency seems to be more relevant, being confirmed by an excerpt from the author’s earlier paper written in 2009, concerning the statistical Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA Index. The skewness, kurtosis and normality of data distribution analysis, using Jarque Bera test, along with the identification of residual autocorrelation or serial correlation in the presence of significant residual values and heteroskedasticity are the major evaluated aspects. Finally, the author investigates the optimal way to ensure statistical comparability inflationary and deflationary method for financial series of data, and offers a solution to the selection of the appropriate indicator from the categories of the absolute values, absolute variation of the absolute values and the relative variation of the absolute values, expressed by percentages, with the finding of the latter alternative as the best alternative in the world of financial modelling of the economic and financial processes and phenomena.

Pesticide Cumulative Risk Assessment: Framework for Screening Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

This document provides guidance on how to screen groups of pesticides for cumulative evaluation using a two-step approach: begin with evaluation of available toxicological information and, if necessary, follow up with a risk-based screening approach.

Fatigue during maximal sprint cycling: unique role of cumulative contraction cycles.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomas, Aleksandar; Ross, Emma Z; Martin, James C

2010-07-01

Maximal cycling power has been reported to decrease more rapidly when performed with increased pedaling rates. Increasing pedaling rate imposes two constraints on the neuromuscular system: 1) decreased time for muscle excitation and relaxation and 2) increased muscle shortening velocity. Using two crank lengths allows the effects of time and shortening velocity to be evaluated separately. We conducted this investigation to determine whether the time available for excitation and relaxation or the muscle shortening velocity was mainly responsible for the increased rate of fatigue previously observed with increased pedaling rates and to evaluate the influence of other possible fatiguing constraints. Seven trained cyclists performed 30-s maximal isokinetic cycling trials using two crank lengths: 120 and 220 mm. Pedaling rate was optimized for maximum power for each crank length: 135 rpm for the 120-mm cranks (1.7 m x s(-1) pedal speed) and 109 rpm for the 220-mm cranks (2.5 m x s(-1) pedal speed). Power was recorded with an SRM power meter. Crank length did not affect peak power: 999 +/- 276 W for the 120-mm crank versus 1001 +/- 289 W for the 220-mm crank. Fatigue index was greater (58.6% +/- 3.7% vs 52.4% +/- 4.8%, P < 0.01), and total work was less (20.0 +/- 1.8 vs 21.4 +/- 2.0 kJ, P < 0.01) with the higher pedaling rate-shorter crank condition. Regression analyses indicated that the power for the two conditions was most highly related to cumulative work (r2 = 0.94) and to cumulative cycles (r2 = 0.99). These results support previous findings and confirm that pedaling rate, rather than pedal speed, was the main factor influencing fatigue. Our novel result was that power decreased by a similar increment with each crank revolution for the two conditions, indicating that each maximal muscular contraction induced a similar amount of fatigue.

Cumulative release to the accessible environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanehiro, B.

1985-01-01

The Containment and Isolation Working Group considered issues related to the postclosure behavior of repositories in crystalline rock. This working group was further divided into subgroups to consider the progress since the 1978 GAIN Symposium and identify research needs in the individual areas of regional ground-water flow, ground-water travel time, fractional release, and cumulative release. The analysis and findings of the Fractional Release Subgroup are presented

Mid-term periodicities and heliospheric modulation of coronal index and solar flare index during solar cycles 22-23

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Prithvi Raj; Saxena, A. K.; Tiwari, C. M.

2018-04-01

We applied fast Fourier transform techniques and Morlet wavelet transform on the time series data of coronal index, solar flare index, and galactic cosmic ray, for the period 1986-2008, in order to investigate the long- and mid-term periodicities including the Rieger ({˜ }130 to {˜ }190 days), quasi-period ({˜ }200 to {˜ }374 days), and quasi-biennial periodicities ({˜ }1.20 to {˜ }3.27 years) during the combined solar cycles 22-23. We emphasize the fact that a lesser number of periodicities are found in the range of low frequencies, while the higher frequencies show a greater number of periodicities. The rotation rates at the base of convection zone have periods for coronal index of {˜ }1.43 years and for solar flare index of {˜ }1.41 year, and galactic cosmic ray, {˜ }1.35 year, during combined solar cycles 22-23. In relation to these two solar parameters (coronal index and solar flare index), for the solar cycles 22-23, we found that galactic cosmic ray modulation at mid cut-off rigidity (Rc = 2.43GV) is anti-correlated with time-lag of few months.

Anti-irritants II: Efficacy against cumulative irritation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Flemming; Hedegaard, Kathryn; Petersen, Thomas Kongstad

2006-01-01

window of opportunity in which to demonstrate efficacy. Therefore, the effect of AI was studied in a cumulative irritation model by inducing irritant dermatitis with 10 min daily exposures for 5+4 days (no irritation on weekend) to 1% sodium lauryl sulfate on the right and 20% nonanoic acid on the left...

Genetic algorithm-based improved DOA estimation using fourth-order cumulants

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, Ammar; Tufail, Muhammad

2017-05-01

Genetic algorithm (GA)-based direction of arrival (DOA) estimation is proposed using fourth-order cumulants (FOC) and ESPRIT principle which results in Multiple Invariance Cumulant ESPRIT algorithm. In the existing FOC ESPRIT formulations, only one invariance is utilised to estimate DOAs. The unused multiple invariances (MIs) must be exploited simultaneously in order to improve the estimation accuracy. In this paper, a fitness function based on a carefully designed cumulant matrix is developed which incorporates MIs present in the sensor array. Better DOA estimation can be achieved by minimising this fitness function. Moreover, the effectiveness of Newton's method as well as GA for this optimisation problem has been illustrated. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm provides improved estimation accuracy compared to existing algorithms, especially in the case of low SNR, less number of snapshots, closely spaced sources and high signal and noise correlation. Moreover, it is observed that the optimisation using Newton's method is more likely to converge to false local optima resulting in erroneous results. However, GA-based optimisation has been found attractive due to its global optimisation capability.

Solar Energy Potential Estimation in Perak Using Clearness Index and Artificial Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Assadi Morteza Khalaji

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper solar energy potential has been estimated by two methods which are clearness index and artificial network (ANN methods. The selected region is Seri Iskandar, Perak (4°24´latitude, 100°58´E longitude, 24 m altitude. Experimental data (monthly average daily radiation on horizontal surface was obtained from UTP solar research site in UTP campus. The data include the period of 2010 to 2012 and were used for testing the artificial neural network model and also for determination of clearness index. Also the experimental data of the three meteorological, Ipoh, Bayan Lepas & KLIA were used in calculating the clearness index and for training the neural network. Result shows that clearness index for Seri Iskandar is 0.52, the highest radiation is on February (20.45 MJ/m2/day, annual average is 18.25 MJ/m2/day and clearness index is more accurate than ANN when there is limited data supply. In general, Perak states show strong potential for solar energy application.

Cumulative effects assessment in Canada: an agenda for action and research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peterson, E.B.; Chan, Y.-H.; Peterson, N.M.; Constable, G.A.; Caton, R.B.; Davis, C.S.; Wallace, R.R.; Yarranton, G.A.

1987-01-01

This review of cumulative environmental effects assessment in Canada identified 13 sets of issues that are considered to be of particular significance to Canadians over the next decade or two. They are: long-range transport of air pollutants; urban air quality and airshed saturation, mobilization of persistent or bioaccumulated substances, climatic modification, land occupation by man-made features, habitat alienation and fragmentation, soil losses, effects of agricultural chemicals, groundwater supply reduction and contamination, increased sediment, chemical and thermal loading of freshwater and marine habitats, accelerating rates of renewable resource harvesting, and long-term containment and disposal of toxic wastes. There is a diverse set of examples in which cumulative effects have been recognized and brought under control and management, and the scientific and institutional factors that promoted a successful approach are summarized. It was confirmed that there are well-defined limitations in the degree to which project referrals and project-specific environmental impact assessments can be adapted to manage cumulative effects successfully. In general, this review confirmed the hypothesis that current approaches for both scientific analyses and institutional arrangements to manage cumulative effects remain inadequately developed in Canada. To address this weakness, action is required on improving links between ecosystems, research, and management. Recommendations are made and a research agenda is presented. 171 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.

RECONSTRUCTION OF PRECIPITATION SERIES AND ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PAST 500 YEARS IN NORTHERN CHINA

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

RONG Yan-shu; TU Qi-pu

2005-01-01

It is important and necessary to get a much longer precipitation series in order to research features of drought/flood and climate change.Based on dryness and wetness grades series of 18 stations in Northern China of 533 years from 1470 to 2002, the Moving Cumulative Frequency Method (MCFM) was developed, moving average precipitation series from 1499 to 2002 were reconstructed by testing three kinds of average precipitation, and the features of climate change and dry and wet periods were researched by using reconstructed precipitation series in the present paper.The results showed that there were good relationship between the reconstructed precipitation series and the observation precipitation series since 1954 and their relative root-mean-square error were below 1.89%, that the relation between reconstructed series and the dryness and wetness grades series were nonlinear and this nonlinear relation implied that reconstructed series were reliable and could became foundation data for researching evolution of the drought and flood.Analysis of climate change upon reconstructed precipitation series revealed that although drought intensity of recent dry period from middle 1970s of 20th century until early 21st century was not the strongest in historical climate of Northern China, intensity and duration of wet period was a great deal decreasing and shortening respectively, climate evolve to aridification situation in Northern China.

Comparing the Palmer Drought Index and the Standardized Precipitation Index for Zagreb-Gric Observatory

Science.gov (United States)

Pandzic, Kreso

2016-04-01

Conventional Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) and recent Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are compared for Zagreb-Gric weather station. Historical time series of PDSI and SPI are compared. For that purpose monthly precipitation, air temperature and air humidity data for Zagreb-Gric Observatory and period 1862-2012 are used. The results indicate that SPI is simpler for interpretation than PDSI. On the other side, lack of temperature within SPI, make impossible use of it on climate change applications. A comparison of PDSI and SPI for the periods from 1 to 24 months indicate the best agreement between PDSI and SPI for the periods from 6 to 12 months. In addition, correlation coefficients of determination between annual corn crop per hectare and SPI 9- months time scale and PDSI from May to October are shown as significant.

Cumulative Beam Breakup with Time-Dependent Parameters

CERN Document Server

Delayen, J R

2004-01-01

A general analytical formalism developed recently for cumulative beam breakup (BBU) in linear accelerators with arbitrary beam current profile and misalignments [1] is extended to include time-dependent parameters such as energy chirp or rf focusing in order to reduce BBU-induced instabilities and emittance growth. Analytical results are presented and applied to practical accelerator configurations.

Error Analysis on the Estimation of Cumulative Infiltration in Soil Using Green and AMPT Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhamad Askari

2006-08-01

Full Text Available Green and Ampt infiltration model is still useful for the infiltration process because of a clear physical basis of the model and of the existence of the model parameter values for a wide range of soil. The objective of thise study was to analyze error on the esimation of cumulative infiltration in sooil using Green and Ampt model and to design laboratory experiment in measuring cumulative infiltration. Parameter of the model was determined based on soil physical properties from laboratory experiment. Newton –Raphson method was esed to estimate wetting front during calculation using visual Basic for Application (VBA in MS Word. The result showed that  contributed the highest error in estimation of cumulative infiltration and was followed by K, H0, H1, and t respectively. It also showed that the calculated cumulative infiltration is always lower than both measured cumulative infiltration and volumetric soil water content.

Incorporating cumulative effects into environmental assessments of mariculture: Limitations and failures of current siting methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, Sarah C.; Pushchak, Ronald

2008-01-01

Assessing and evaluating the cumulative impacts of multiple marine aquaculture facilities has proved difficult in environmental assessment. A retrospective review of 23 existing mariculture farms in southwestern New Brunswick was conducted to determine whether cumulative interactions would have justified site approvals. Based on current scientific evidence of cumulative effects, six new criteria were added to a set of far-field impacts and other existing criteria were expanded to include regional and cumulative environmental impacts in Hargrave's [Hargrave BT. A traffic light decision system for marine finfish aquaculture siting. Ocean Coast Manag 2002; 45:215-35.] Traffic Light Decision Support System (DSS) presently used in Canadian aquaculture environmental assessments. Before mitigation, 19 of the 23 sites failed the amended set of criteria and after considering mitigation, 8 sites failed. Site and ecosystem indices yielded varying site acceptability scores; however, many sites would not have been approved if siting decisions had been made within a regional management framework and cumulative impact criteria were considered in the site evaluation process

The Implementation of Cumulative Learning Theory in Calculating Triangular Prism and Tube Volumes

Science.gov (United States)

Muklis, M.; Abidin, C.; Pamungkas, M. D.; Masriyah

2018-01-01

This study aims at describing the application of cumulative learning theory in calculating the volume of a triangular prism and a tube as well as revealing the students’ responses toward the learning. The research method used was descriptive qualitative with elementary school students as the subjects of the research. Data obtained through observation, field notes, questionnaire, tests, and interviews. The results from the application of cumulative learning theory obtained positive students’ responses in following the learning and students’ learning outcomes was dominantly above the average. This showed that cumulative learning could be used as a reference to be implemented in learning, so as to improve the students’ achievement.

Cumulative trauma and partner conflict predict post-traumatic stress disorder in postpartum African-American women.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauff, Nancy J; Fry-McComish, Judith; Chiodo, Lisa M

2017-08-01

To describe relationships between cumulative trauma, partner conflict and post-traumatic stress in African-American postpartum women. Cumulative trauma exposure estimates for women in the USA range from 51-69%. During pregnancy, most trauma research has focused on physical injury to the mother. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with trauma and more prevalent in African-American women than women of other groups. Knowledge about both the rate and impact of cumulative trauma on pregnancy may contribute to our understanding of women seeking prenatal care, and disparities in infant morbidity and mortality. This retrospective, correlational, cross-sectional study took place on postpartum units of two Detroit hospitals. Participants were 150 African-American women aged between 18-45 who had given birth. Mothers completed the Cumulative Trauma Scale, Conflict Tactics Scale, Clinician Administered Post-traumatic Stress Scale, Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and a Demographic Data form. Descriptive statistics, correlations and multiple regressions were used for data analysis. All participants reported at least one traumatic event in their lifetime. Cumulative trauma and partner conflict predicted PTSD, with the trauma of a life-threatening event for a loved one reported by 60% of the sample. Nearly, one-fourth of the women screened were at risk for PTSD. Increased cumulative trauma, increased partner conflict and lower level of education were related to higher rates of PTSD symptoms. Both cumulative trauma and partner conflict in the past year predict PTSD. Reasoning was used most often for partner conflict resolution. The results of this study offer additional knowledge regarding relationships between cumulative trauma, partner conflict and PTSD in African-American women. Healthcare providers need to be sensitive to patient life-threatening events, personal failures, abuse and other types of trauma. Current evidence supports the need to assess for

Retrieval of Leaf Area Index (LAI and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR from VIIRS Time-Series Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiqiang Xiao

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Long-term high-quality global leaf area index (LAI and fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR products are urgently needed for the study of global change, climate modeling, and many other problems. As the successor of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS sensor, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS will continue to provide global environmental measurements. This paper aims to generate longer time series Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS LAI and FAPAR products after the era of the MODIS sensor. To ensure spatial and temporal consistencies between GLASS LAI/FAPAR values retrieved from different satellite observations, the GLASS LAI/FAPAR retrieval algorithms were adapted in this study to retrieve LAI and FAPAR values from VIIRS surface reflectance time-series data. After reprocessing of the VIIRS surface reflectance to remove remaining effects of cloud contamination and other factors, a database generated from the GLASS LAI product and the reprocessed VIIRS surface reflectance for all Benchmark Land Multisite Analysis and Intercomparison of Products (BELMANIP sites was used to train general regression neural networks (GRNNs. The reprocessed VIIRS surface reflectance data from an entire year were entered into the trained GRNNs to estimate the one-year LAI values, which were then used to calculate FAPAR values. A cross-comparison indicates that the LAI and FAPAR values retrieved from VIIRS surface reflectance were generally consistent with the GLASS, MODIS and Geoland2/BioPar version 1 (GEOV1 LAI/FAPAR values in their spatial patterns. The LAI/FAPAR values retrieved from VIIRS surface reflectance achieved good agreement with the GLASS LAI/FAPAR values (R2 = 0.8972 and RMSE = 0.3054; and R2 = 0.9067 and RMSE = 0.0529, respectively. However, validation of the LAI and FAPAR values derived from VIIRS reflectance data is now limited by the scarcity of LAI/FAPAR ground measurements.

A cumulant functional for static and dynamic correlation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollett, Joshua W.; Hosseini, Hessam; Menzies, Cameron

2016-01-01

A functional for the cumulant energy is introduced. The functional is composed of a pair-correction and static and dynamic correlation energy components. The pair-correction and static correlation energies are functionals of the natural orbitals and the occupancy transferred between near-degenerate orbital pairs, rather than the orbital occupancies themselves. The dynamic correlation energy is a functional of the statically correlated on-top two-electron density. The on-top density functional used in this study is the well-known Colle-Salvetti functional. Using the cc-pVTZ basis set, the functional effectively models the bond dissociation of H 2 , LiH, and N 2 with equilibrium bond lengths and dissociation energies comparable to those provided by multireference second-order perturbation theory. The performance of the cumulant functional is less impressive for HF and F 2 , mainly due to an underestimation of the dynamic correlation energy by the Colle-Salvetti functional.

Recurrence formulas for evaluating expansion series of depletion functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vukadin, Z.

1991-01-01

A high-accuracy analytical method for solving the depletion equations for chains of radioactive nuclides is based on the formulation of depletion functions. When all the arguments of the depletion function are too close to each other, series expansions of the depletion function have to be used. However, the high-accuracy series expressions for the depletion functions of high index become too complicated. Recursion relations are derived which enable an efficient high-accuracy evaluation of the depletion functions with high indices. (orig.) [de

Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

Cumulative trauma, gender discrimination and mental health in women: mediating role of self-esteem.

Science.gov (United States)

Kucharska, Justyna

2017-12-20

Evidence suggests that women show symptoms of trauma-related symptoms more often than men. Gender discrimination is also associated with the severity of symptoms in women. This study explored the relations among cumulative trauma, gender discrimination and mental health in women with a mediating role of self-esteem and emotion regulation. Two types of gender discrimination were taken into account: discrimination by parents and in the social context. Cumulative trauma over the lifetime was assessed, as well as three types of symptoms: internalising, externalising, psychoticism. A total of 277 females from Poland participated in the study. It was hypothesised that gender discrimination and cumulative trauma would be positively related to symptoms and that lowered self-esteem mediates these relations. Hypotheses received partial confirmation, as both gender discrimination and cumulative trauma have been shown to be related to three types of symptoms. Self-esteem was a partial mediator between gender discrimination in the social context and symptoms. It was also demonstrated that emotion suppression is a partial mediator between cumulative trauma and symptoms. It has been demonstrated that socio-cultural factors, such as gender discrimination, play an important role in psychiatric symptoms development.

Performance Evaluation of Machine Learning Methods for Leaf Area Index Retrieval from Time-Series MODIS Reflectance Data

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tongtong; Xiao, Zhiqiang; Liu, Zhigang

2017-01-01

Leaf area index (LAI) is an important biophysical parameter and the retrieval of LAI from remote sensing data is the only feasible method for generating LAI products at regional and global scales. However, most LAI retrieval methods use satellite observations at a specific time to retrieve LAI. Because of the impacts of clouds and aerosols, the LAI products generated by these methods are spatially incomplete and temporally discontinuous, and thus they cannot meet the needs of practical applications. To generate high-quality LAI products, four machine learning algorithms, including back-propagation neutral network (BPNN), radial basis function networks (RBFNs), general regression neutral networks (GRNNs), and multi-output support vector regression (MSVR) are proposed to retrieve LAI from time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reflectance data in this study and performance of these machine learning algorithms is evaluated. The results demonstrated that GRNNs, RBFNs, and MSVR exhibited low sensitivity to training sample size, whereas BPNN had high sensitivity. The four algorithms performed slightly better with red, near infrared (NIR), and short wave infrared (SWIR) bands than red and NIR bands, and the results were significantly better than those obtained using single band reflectance data (red or NIR). Regardless of band composition, GRNNs performed better than the other three methods. Among the four algorithms, BPNN required the least training time, whereas MSVR needed the most for any sample size. PMID:28045443

Cumulative (DisAdvantage and the Matthew Effect in Life-Course Analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miia Bask

Full Text Available To foster a deeper understanding of the mechanisms behind inequality in society, it is crucial to work with well-defined concepts associated with such mechanisms. The aim of this paper is to define cumulative (disadvantage and the Matthew effect. We argue that cumulative (disadvantage is an intra-individual micro-level phenomenon, that the Matthew effect is an inter-individual macro-level phenomenon and that an appropriate measure of the Matthew effect focuses on the mechanism or dynamic process that generates inequality. The Matthew mechanism is, therefore, a better name for the phenomenon, where we provide a novel measure of the mechanism, including a proof-of-principle analysis using disposable personal income data. Finally, because socio-economic theory should be able to explain cumulative (disadvantage and the Matthew mechanism when they are detected in data, we discuss the types of models that may explain the phenomena. We argue that interactions-based models in the literature traditions of analytical sociology and statistical mechanics serve this purpose.

Cumulative or delayed nephrotoxicity after cisplatin (DDP) treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Pinnarò, P; Ruggeri, E M; Carlini, P; Giovannelli, M; Cognetti, F

1986-04-30

The present retrospective study reports data regarding renal toxicity in 115 patients (63 males, 52 females; median age, 56 years) who received cumulative doses of cisplatin (DDP) greater than or equal to 200 mg/m2. DDP was administered alone or in combination at a dose of 50-70 mg/m2 in 91 patients, and at a dose of 100 mg/m2 in 22 patients. Two patients after progression of ovarian carcinoma treated with conventional doses of DDP received 4 and 2 courses, respectively, of high-dose DDP (40 mg/m2 for 5 days) in hypertonic saline. The median number of DDP courses was 6 (range 2-14), and the median cumulative dose was 350 mg/m2 (range, 200-1200). Serum creatinine and urea nitrogen were determined before initiating the treatment and again 13-16 days after each administration. The incidence of azotemia (creatinina levels that exceeded 1.5 mg/dl) was similar before (7.8%) and after (6.1%) DDP doses of 200 mg/m2. Azotemia appears to be related to the association of DDP with other potentially nephrotoxic antineoplastic drugs (methotrexate) more than to the dose per course of DDP. Of 59 patients followed for 2 months or more after discontinuing the DDP treatment, 3 (5.1%) presented creatinine values higher than 1.5 mg/dl. The data deny that the incidence of nephrotoxicity is higher in patients receiving higher cumulative doses of DDP and confirm that increases in serum creatinine levels may occur some time after discontinuation of the drug.

Electronic evaluation for video commercials by impression index.

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Wanzeng; Zhao, Xinxin; Hu, Sanqing; Vecchiato, Giovanni; Babiloni, Fabio

2013-12-01

How to evaluate the effect of commercials is significantly important in neuromarketing. In this paper, we proposed an electronic way to evaluate the influence of video commercials on consumers by impression index. The impression index combines both the memorization and attention index during consumers observing video commercials by tracking the EEG activity. It extracts features from scalp EEG to evaluate the effectiveness of video commercials in terms of time-frequency-space domain. And, the general global field power was used as an impression index for evaluation of video commercial scenes as time series. Results of experiment demonstrate that the proposed approach is able to track variations of the cerebral activity related to cognitive task such as observing video commercials, and help to judge whether the scene in video commercials is impressive or not by EEG signals.

30 CFR 250.921 - How do I analyze my platform for cumulative fatigue?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false How do I analyze my platform for cumulative fatigue? 250.921 Section 250.921 Mineral Resources MINERALS MANAGEMENT SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR... fatigue? (a) If you are required to analyze cumulative fatigue on your platform because of the results of...

A Case Series of the Probability Density and Cumulative Distribution of Laryngeal Disease in a Tertiary Care Voice Center.

Science.gov (United States)

de la Fuente, Jaime; Garrett, C Gaelyn; Ossoff, Robert; Vinson, Kim; Francis, David O; Gelbard, Alexander

2017-11-01

To examine the distribution of clinic and operative pathology in a tertiary care laryngology practice. Probability density and cumulative distribution analyses (Pareto analysis) was used to rank order laryngeal conditions seen in an outpatient tertiary care laryngology practice and those requiring surgical intervention during a 3-year period. Among 3783 new clinic consultations and 1380 operative procedures, voice disorders were the most common primary diagnostic category seen in clinic (n = 3223), followed by airway (n = 374) and swallowing (n = 186) disorders. Within the voice strata, the most common primary ICD-9 code used was dysphonia (41%), followed by unilateral vocal fold paralysis (UVFP) (9%) and cough (7%). Among new voice patients, 45% were found to have a structural abnormality. The most common surgical indications were laryngotracheal stenosis (37%), followed by recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (18%) and UVFP (17%). Nearly 55% of patients presenting to a tertiary referral laryngology practice did not have an identifiable structural abnormality in the larynx on direct or indirect examination. The distribution of ICD-9 codes requiring surgical intervention was disparate from that seen in clinic. Application of the Pareto principle may improve resource allocation in laryngology, but these initial results require confirmation across multiple institutions.

Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nilsson, H.; Rieskamp, J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

2011-01-01

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) has provided one of the most influential accounts of how people make decisions under risk. CPT is a formal model with parameters that quantify psychological processes such as loss aversion, subjective values of gains and losses, and

Freely Chosen Index Finger Tapping Frequency Is Increased in Repeated Bouts of Tapping.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Ernst Albin; Ebbesen, Brian Duborg; Dalsgaard, Ane; Mora-Jensen, Mark Holten; Rasmussen, Jakob

2015-01-01

Healthy individuals (n = 40) performed index finger tapping at freely chosen frequency during repeated bouts and before and after near-maximal muscle action consisting of 3 intense flexions of the index finger metacarpal phalangeal joint. One experiment showed, unexpectedly, that a bout of tapping increased the tapping frequency in the subsequent bout. Thus, a cumulating increase of 8.2 ± 5.4% (p tapping frequency was still increased in consecutive bouts when rest periods were extended to 20 min. Besides, near-maximal muscle activation, followed by 5 min rest, did not affect the tapping frequency. In conclusion, freely chosen tapping frequency was increased in repeated bouts of tapping, which were separated by 10-20 min rest periods. The observed phenomenon is suggested to be termed repeated bout rate enhancement.

Multi-index time series monitoring of drought and fire effects on desert grasslands

Science.gov (United States)

Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Buckley, Steven; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Coe, Michelle A.

2016-01-01

The Western United States is expected to undergo both extended periods of drought and longer wildfire seasons under forecasted global climate change and it is important to understand how these disturbances will interact and affect recovery and composition of plant communities in the future. In this research paper we describe the temporal response of grassland communities to drought and fire in southern Arizona, where land managers are using repeated, prescribed fire as a habitat restoration tool. Using a 25-year atlas of fire locations, we paired sites with multiple fires to unburned control areas and compare satellite and field-based estimates of vegetation cover over time. Two hundred and fifty Landsat TM images, dating from 1985–2011, were used to derive estimates of Total Vegetation Fractional Cover (TVFC) of live and senescent grass using the Soil-Adjusted Total Vegetation Index (SATVI) and post-fire vegetation greenness using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We also implemented a Greenness to Cover Index that is the difference of time-standardized SATVI-TVFC and NDVI values at a given time and location to identify post-fire shifts in native, non-native, and annual plant cover. The results highlight anomalous greening and browning during drought periods related to amounts of annual and non-native plant cover present. Results suggest that aggressive application of prescribed fire may encourage spread of non-native perennial grasses and annual plants, particularly during droughts.

The Role of Cumulative Trauma, Betrayal, and Appraisals in Understanding Trauma Symptomatology

OpenAIRE

Martin, Christina Gamache; Cromer, Lisa DeMarni; DePrince, Anne P.; Freyd, Jennifer J.

2011-01-01

Poor psychological outcomes are common among trauma survivors, yet not all survivors experience adverse sequelae. The current study examined links between cumulative trauma exposure as a function of the level of betrayal (measured by the relational closeness of the survivor and the perpetrator), trauma appraisals, gender, and trauma symptoms. Participants were 273 college students who reported experiencing at least one traumatic event on a trauma checklist. Three cumulative indices were const...

Option pricing from wavelet-filtered financial series

Science.gov (United States)

de Almeida, V. T. X.; Moriconi, L.

2012-10-01

We perform wavelet decomposition of high frequency financial time series into large and small time scale components. Taking the FTSE100 index as a case study, and working with the Haar basis, it turns out that the small scale component defined by most (≃99.6%) of the wavelet coefficients can be neglected for the purpose of option premium evaluation. The relevance of the hugely compressed information provided by low-pass wavelet-filtering is related to the fact that the non-gaussian statistical structure of the original financial time series is essentially preserved for expiration times which are larger than just one trading day.

Cumulative effective and individual organ dose levels in paediatric patients undergoing multiple catheterizations for congenital heart disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, T.P.; Brennan, P.C.; Ryan, E.

2017-01-01

This study examines the cumulative radiation dose levels received by a group of children who underwent multiple cardiac catheterisation procedures during the investigation and management of congenital heart disease (CHD). The purpose is to calculate cumulative doses, identify higher dose individuals, outline the inconsistencies with risk assessment and encourage the establishment of dose databases in order to facilitate the longitudinal research necessary to better understand health risks. A retrospective review of patient records for 117 paediatric patients who have undergone two or more cardiac catheterizations for the investigation of CHD was undertaken. This cohort consisted of patients who were catheterised over a period from September 2002 to August 2014. The age distribution was from newborn to 17 y. Archived kerma-area product (P KA ) and fluoroscopy time (T) readings were retrieved and analysed. Cumulative effective and individual organ doses were determined. The cumulative P KA levels ranged from 1.8 to 651.2 Gycm 2 , whilst cumulative effective dose levels varied from 2 to 259 mSv. The cumulative fluoroscopy time was shown to vary from 8.1 to 193.5 min. Median cumulative organ doses ranged from 3 to 94 mGy. Cumulative effective dose levels are highly variable but may exceed 250 mSv. Individual organ and effective dose measurements remain useful for comparison purposes between institutions although current methodologies used for determining lifetime risks are inadequate. (authors)

Multiparty correlation measure based on the cumulant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, D. L.; Zeng, B.; Xu, Z.; You, L.

2006-01-01

We propose a genuine multiparty correlation measure for a multiparty quantum system as the trace norm of the cumulant of the state. The legitimacy of our multiparty correlation measure is explicitly demonstrated by proving it satisfies the five basic conditions required for a correlation measure. As an application we construct an efficient algorithm for the calculation of our measures for all stabilizer states

78 FR 25440 - Request for Information and Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-01

... Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment AGENCY: Office of the Science Advisor, Environmental... influence exposures, dose-response or risk/hazard posed by environmental contaminant exposures, and methods... who wish to receive further information about submitting information on methods for cumulative risk...

Pricing of temperature index insurance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Che Mohd Imran Che Taib

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study pricing of weather insurance contracts based on temperature indices. Three different pricing methods are analysed: the classical burn approach, index modelling and temperature modelling. We take the data from Malaysia as our empirical case. Our results show that there is a significant difference between the burn and index pricing approaches on one hand, and the temperature modelling method on the other. The latter approach is pricing the insurance contract using a seasonal autoregressive time series model for daily temperature variations, and thus provides a precise probabilistic model for the fine structure of temperature evolution. We complement our pricing analysis by an investigation of the profit/loss distribution from the contract, in the perspective of both the insured and the insurer.

Regulatory and technical reports (Abstract Index Journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-11-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors, proceedings of conferences and workshops, grants, and international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility

Regulatory and technical reports (Abstract Index Journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-03-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, international organization, and licensed facility

Regulatory and technical reports (Abstract Index Journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-02-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors, proceedings of conferences and workshops, grants, and international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility

Regulatory and technical reports (Abstract Index Journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-12-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors, proceedings of conferences and workshops, grants, and international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility

Looking up, down, and sideways: Reconceiving cumulative effects assessment as a mindset

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sinclair, A. John, E-mail: jsincla@umanitoba.ca [Natural Resources Institute, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2 (Canada); Doelle, Meinhard, E-mail: mdoelle@dal.ca [Marine & Environmental Law Institute, Dalhousie University, Schulich School of Law, Dalhousie University, 6061 University Ave., Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2 (Canada); Duinker, Peter N., E-mail: peter.duinker@dal.ca [School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, 6100 University Ave., Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2 (Canada)

2017-01-15

Despite all the effort that has gone into defining, researching and establishing best practices for cumulative effects assessment (CEA), understanding remains weak and practice wanting. At one extreme of implementation, CEA can be described as merely an irritant to the completion of a project-specific environmental assessment (EA). At the other extreme, the conceptual view is that all effects in EA should be deemed cumulative unless demonstrated otherwise. Our purpose here is to consider how we might reconceive CEA as a mindset that is at the heart of absolutely every assessment of valued ecosystem component (VEC) to ensure that we understand the relative contributions of various stressors and can decide when cumulative effects may foreclose future activities due to impacts on VECs. Conceptually, we ground the CEA mindset in the context of three lenses that must all be functioning and working together for the mindset to be operative: a technical lens; a law and policy lens; and a participatory lens. Our arguments are based on a review of the CEA, strategic effects assessment (SEA) and regional effects assessment literatures, an examination and consideration of Canadian EA and SEA case practice, and our combined professional experiences. Through using the Bay of Fundy in Canada as a case example, we establish the concept of the CEA mindset and an approach for moving forward with implementation. - Highlights: • Conceptualization of cumulative effects assessment as a mindset. • Elaboration of technical, law and policy and participation lenses critical to CEA • Coordination and integration of cumulative effects for valued ecosystem components • Application in Bay of Fundy ecosystem and terrestrial watershed.

Cumulative impact assessments and bird/wind farm interactions: Developing a conceptual framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masden, Elizabeth A.; Fox, Anthony D.; Furness, Robert W.; Bullman, Rhys; Haydon, Daniel T.

2010-01-01

The wind power industry has grown rapidly in the UK to meet EU targets of sourcing 20% of energy from renewable sources by 2020. Although wind power is a renewable energy source, there are environmental concerns over increasing numbers of wind farm proposals and associated cumulative impacts. Individually, a wind farm, or indeed any action, may have minor effects on the environment, but collectively these may be significant, potentially greater than the sum of the individual parts acting alone. EU and UK legislation requires a cumulative impact assessment (CIA) as part of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA). However, in the absence of detailed guidance and definitions, such assessments within EIA are rarely adequate, restricting the acquisition of basic knowledge about the cumulative impacts of wind farms on bird populations. Here we propose a conceptual framework to promote transparency in CIA through the explicit definition of impacts, actions and scales within an assessment. Our framework requires improved legislative guidance on the actions to include in assessments, and advice on the appropriate baselines against which to assess impacts. Cumulative impacts are currently considered on restricted scales (spatial and temporal) relating to individual development EIAs. We propose that benefits would be gained from elevating CIA to a strategic level, as a component of spatially explicit planning.

Quantitative methods for analysing cumulative effects on fish migration success: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, J E; Patterson, D A; Martins, E G; Cooke, S J; Hinch, S G

2012-07-01

It is often recognized, but seldom addressed, that a quantitative assessment of the cumulative effects, both additive and non-additive, of multiple stressors on fish survival would provide a more realistic representation of the factors that influence fish migration. This review presents a compilation of analytical methods applied to a well-studied fish migration, a more general review of quantitative multivariable methods, and a synthesis on how to apply new analytical techniques in fish migration studies. A compilation of adult migration papers from Fraser River sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka revealed a limited number of multivariable methods being applied and the sub-optimal reliance on univariable methods for multivariable problems. The literature review of fisheries science, general biology and medicine identified a large number of alternative methods for dealing with cumulative effects, with a limited number of techniques being used in fish migration studies. An evaluation of the different methods revealed that certain classes of multivariable analyses will probably prove useful in future assessments of cumulative effects on fish migration. This overview and evaluation of quantitative methods gathered from the disparate fields should serve as a primer for anyone seeking to quantify cumulative effects on fish migration survival. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Cumulative environmental impacts and integrated coastal management: the case of Xiamen, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Xiongzhi; Hong, Huasheng; Charles, Anthony T

2004-07-01

This paper examines the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts and the implementation of integrated coastal management within the harbour of Xiamen, China, an urban region in which the coastal zone is under increasing pressure as a result of very rapid economic growth. The first stage of analysis incorporates components of a cumulative effects assessment, including (a) identification of sources of environmental impacts, notably industrial expansion, port development, shipping, waste disposal, aquaculture and coastal construction, (b) selection of a set of valued ecosystem components, focusing on circulation and siltation, water quality, sediment, the benthic community, and mangrove forests, and (c) use of a set of key indicators to examine cumulative impacts arising from the aggregate of human activities. In the second stage of analysis, the paper describes and assesses the development of an institutional framework for integrated coastal management in Xiamen, one that combines policy and planning (including legislative and enforcement mechanisms) with scientific and monitoring mechanisms (including an innovative 'marine functional zoning' system). The paper concludes that the integrated coastal management framework in Xiamen has met all relevant requirements for 'integration' as laid out in the literature, and has explicitly incorporated consideration of cumulative impacts within its management and monitoring processes.

Cumulative Head Impact Exposure Predicts Later-Life Depression, Apathy, Executive Dysfunction, and Cognitive Impairment in Former High School and College Football Players.

Science.gov (United States)

Montenigro, Philip H; Alosco, Michael L; Martin, Brett M; Daneshvar, Daniel H; Mez, Jesse; Chaisson, Christine E; Nowinski, Christopher J; Au, Rhoda; McKee, Ann C; Cantu, Robert C; McClean, Michael D; Stern, Robert A; Tripodis, Yorghos

2017-01-15

The term "repetitive head impacts" (RHI) refers to the cumulative exposure to concussive and subconcussive events. Although RHI are believed to increase risk for later-life neurological consequences (including chronic traumatic encephalopathy), quantitative analysis of this relationship has not yet been examined because of the lack of validated tools to quantify lifetime RHI exposure. The objectives of this study were: 1) to develop a metric to quantify cumulative RHI exposure from football, which we term the "cumulative head impact index" (CHII); 2) to use the CHII to examine the association between RHI exposure and long-term clinical outcomes; and 3) to evaluate its predictive properties relative to other exposure metrics (i.e., duration of play, age of first exposure, concussion history). Participants included 93 former high school and collegiate football players who completed objective cognitive and self-reported behavioral/mood tests as part of a larger ongoing longitudinal study. Using established cutoff scores, we transformed continuous outcomes into dichotomous variables (normal vs. impaired). The CHII was computed for each participant and derived from a combination of self-reported athletic history (i.e., number of seasons, position[s], levels played), and impact frequencies reported in helmet accelerometer studies. A bivariate probit, instrumental variable model revealed a threshold dose-response relationship between the CHII and risk for later-life cognitive impairment (p < 0.0001), self-reported executive dysfunction (p < 0.0001), depression (p < 0.0001), apathy (p = 0.0161), and behavioral dysregulation (p < 0.0001). Ultimately, the CHII demonstrated greater predictive validity than other individual exposure metrics.

Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary, 2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, Gary E.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Borde, Amy B.; Bryson, Amanda J.; Cameron, April; Coleman, Andre M.; Corbett, C.; Dawley, Earl M.; Ebberts, Blaine D.; Kauffman, Ronald; Roegner, G. Curtis; Russell, Micah T.; Silva, April; Skalski, John R.; Thom, Ronald M.; Vavrinec, John; Woodruff, Dana L.; Zimmerman, Shon A.

2010-10-26

This is the sixth annual report of a seven-year project (2004 through 2010) to evaluate the cumulative effects of habitat restoration actions in the lower Columbia River and estuary (LCRE). The project, called the Cumulative Effects Study, is being conducted for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (USACE) by the Marine Sciences Laboratory of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), the Pt. Adams Biological Field Station of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce (CREST), and the University of Washington. The goal of the Cumulative Effects Study is to develop a methodology to evaluate the cumulative effects of multiple habitat restoration projects intended to benefit ecosystems supporting juvenile salmonids in the 235-km-long LCRE. Literature review in 2004 revealed no existing methods for such an evaluation and suggested that cumulative effects could be additive or synergistic. From 2005 through 2009, annual field research involved intensive, comparative studies paired by habitat type (tidal swamp versus marsh), trajectory (restoration versus reference site), and restoration action (tidegate replacement vs. culvert replacement vs. dike breach).

NEWTONP - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

Science.gov (United States)

Bowerman, P. N.

1994-01-01

The cumulative binomial program, NEWTONP, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. NEWTONP can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. NEWTONP calculates the probably p required to yield a given system reliability V for a k-out-of-n system. It can also be used to determine the Clopper-Pearson confidence limits (either one-sided or two-sided) for the parameter p of a Bernoulli distribution. NEWTONP can determine Bayesian probability limits for a proportion (if the beta prior has positive integer parameters). It can determine the percentiles of incomplete beta distributions with positive integer parameters. It can also determine the percentiles of F distributions and the midian plotting positions in probability plotting. NEWTONP is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. NEWTONP is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The NEWTONP program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. NEWTONP was developed in 1988.

Detrended cross-correlation analysis on RMB exchange rate and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index

Science.gov (United States)

Ruan, Qingsong; Yang, Bingchan; Ma, Guofeng

2017-02-01

In this paper, we investigate the cross-correlations between the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and RMB exchange markets on the basis of a cross-correlation statistic test and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA). MF-DCCA has, at best, serious limitations for most of the signals describing complex natural processes and often indicates multifractal cross-correlations when there are none. In order to prevent these false multifractal cross-correlations, we apply MFCCA to verify the cross-correlations. Qualitatively, we find that the return series of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and RMB exchange markets were, overall, significantly cross-correlated based on the statistical analysis. Quantitatively, we find that the cross-correlations between the stock index and RMB exchange markets were strongly multifractal, and the multifractal degree of the onshore RMB exchange markets was somewhat larger than the offshore RMB exchange markets. Moreover, we use the absolute return series to investigate and confirm the fact of multifractality. The results from the rolling windows show that the short-term cross-correlations between volatility series remain high.

Novel Method of Weighting Cumulative Helmet Impacts Improves Correlation with Brain White Matter Changes After One Football Season of Sub-concussive Head Blows.

Science.gov (United States)

Merchant-Borna, Kian; Asselin, Patrick; Narayan, Darren; Abar, Beau; Jones, Courtney M C; Bazarian, Jeffrey J

2016-12-01

One football season of sub-concussive head blows has been shown to be associated with subclinical white matter (WM) changes on diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Prior research analyses of helmet-based impact metrics using mean and peak linear and rotational acceleration showed relatively weak correlations to these WM changes; however, these analyses failed to account for the emerging concept that neuronal vulnerability to successive hits is inversely related to the time between hits (TBH). To develop a novel method for quantifying the cumulative effects of sub-concussive head blows during a single season of collegiate football by weighting helmet-based impact measures for time between helmet impacts. We further aim to compare correlations to changes in DTI after one season of collegiate football using weighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures to correlations using non-weighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures and non-cumulative measures. We performed a secondary analysis of DTI and helmet impact data collected on ten Division III collegiate football players during the 2011 season. All subjects underwent diffusion MR imaging before the start of the football season and within 1 week of the end of the football season. Helmet impacts were recorded at each practice and game using helmet-mounted accelerometers, which computed five helmet-based impact measures for each hit: linear acceleration (LA), rotational acceleration (RA), Gadd Severity Index (GSI), Head Injury Criterion (HIC 15 ), and Head Impact Technology severity profile (HITsp). All helmet-based impact measures were analyzed using five methods of summary: peak and mean (non-cumulative measures), season sum-totals (cumulative unweighted measures), and season sum-totals weighted for time between hits (TBH), the interval of time from hit to post-season DTI assessment (TUA), and both TBH and TUA combined. Summarized helmet-based impact measures were correlated to statistically significant changes in

Novel indexes based on network structure to indicate financial market

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Tao; Peng, Qinke; Wang, Xiao; Zhang, Jing

2016-02-01

There have been various achievements to understand and to analyze the financial market by complex network model. However, current studies analyze the financial network model but seldom present quantified indexes to indicate or forecast the price action of market. In this paper, the stock market is modeled as a dynamic network, in which the vertices refer to listed companies and edges refer to their rank-based correlation based on price series. Characteristics of the network are analyzed and then novel indexes are introduced into market analysis, which are calculated from maximum and fully-connected subnets. The indexes are compared with existing ones and the results confirm that our indexes perform better to indicate the daily trend of market composite index in advance. Via investment simulation, the performance of our indexes is analyzed in detail. The results indicate that the dynamic complex network model could not only serve as a structural description of the financial market, but also work to predict the market and guide investment by indexes.

Assessing the cumulative environmental effects of marine renewable energy developments: Establishing common ground.

Science.gov (United States)

Willsteed, Edward; Gill, Andrew B; Birchenough, Silvana N R; Jude, Simon

2017-01-15

Assessing and managing the cumulative impacts of human activities on the environment remains a major challenge to sustainable development. This challenge is highlighted by the worldwide expansion of marine renewable energy developments (MREDs) in areas already subject to multiple activities and climate change. Cumulative effects assessments in theory provide decision makers with adequate information about how the environment will respond to the incremental effects of licensed activities and are a legal requirement in many nations. In practise, however, such assessments are beset by uncertainties resulting in substantial delays during the licensing process that reduce MRED investor confidence and limit progress towards meeting climate change targets. In light of these targets and ambitions to manage the marine environment sustainably, reducing the uncertainty surrounding MRED effects and cumulative effects assessment are timely and vital. This review investigates the origins and evolution of cumulative effects assessment to identify why the multitude of approaches and pertinent research have emerged, and discusses key considerations and challenges relevant to assessing the cumulative effects of MREDs and other activities on ecosystems. The review recommends a shift away from the current reliance on disparate environmental impact assessments and limited strategic environmental assessments, and a move towards establishing a common system of coordinated data and research relative to ecologically meaningful areas, focussed on the needs of decision makers tasked with protecting and conserving marine ecosystems and services. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean

OpenAIRE

Halpern, Benjamin S.; Frazier, Melanie; Potapenko, John; Casey, Kenneth S.; Koenig, Kellee; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia Stewart; Rockwood, R. Cotton; Selig, Elizabeth R.; Selkoe, Kimberly A.; Walbridge, Shaun

2015-01-01

Human pressures on the ocean are thought to be increasing globally, yet we know little about their patterns of cumulative change, which pressures are most responsible for change, and which places are experiencing the greatest increases. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here we calculate and map recent change over 5 years in cumulative impacts to marine ecosystems globally from fishing, climate ch...

Cumulative Environmental Management Association : Wood Buffalo Region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friesen, B.

2001-01-01

The recently announced oil sands development of the Wood Buffalo Region in Alberta was the focus of this power point presentation. Both mining and in situ development is expected to total $26 billion and 2.6 million barrels per day of bitumen production. This paper described the economic, social and environmental challenges facing the resource development of this region. In addition to the proposed oil sands projects, this region will accommodate the needs of conventional oil and gas production, forestry, building of pipelines and power lines, municipal development, recreation, tourism, mining exploration and open cast mining. The Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) was inaugurated as a non-profit association in April 2000, and includes 41 members from all sectors. Its major role is to ensure a sustainable ecosystem and to avoid any cumulative impacts on wildlife. Other work underway includes the study of soil and plant species diversity, and the effects of air emissions on human health, wildlife and vegetation. The bioaccumulation of heavy metals and their impacts on surface water and fish is also under consideration to ensure the quality and quantity of surface water and ground water. 3 figs

Science and societal partnerships to address cumulative impacts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carolyn J Lundquist

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Funding and priorities for ocean research are not separate from the underlying sociological, economic, and political landscapes that determine values attributed to ecological systems. Here we present a variation on science prioritisation exercises, focussing on inter-disciplinary research questions with the objective of shifting broad scale management practices to better address cumulative impacts and multiple users. Marine scientists in New Zealand from a broad range of scientific and social-scientific backgrounds ranked 48 statements of research priorities. At a follow up workshop, participants discussed five over-arching themes based on survey results. These themes were used to develop mechanisms to increase the relevance and efficiency of scientific research while acknowledging socio-economic and political drivers of research agendas in New Zealand’s ocean ecosystems. Overarching messages included the need to: 1 determine the conditions under which ‘surprises’ (sudden and substantive undesirable changes are likely to occur and the socio-ecological implications of such changes; 2 develop methodologies to reveal the complex and cumulative effects of change in marine systems, and their implications for resource use, stewardship, and restoration; 3 assess potential solutions to management issues that balance long-term and short-term benefits and encompass societal engagement in decision-making; 4 establish effective and appropriately resourced institutional networks to foster collaborative, solution-focused marine science; and 5 establish cross-disciplinary dialogues to translate diverse scientific and social-scientific knowledge into innovative regulatory, social and economic practice. In the face of multiple uses and cumulative stressors, ocean management frameworks must be adapted to build a collaborative framework across science, governance and society that can help stakeholders navigate uncertainties and socio-ecological surprises.

Triglyceride and glucose (TyG) index as a predictor of incident hypertension: a 9-year longitudinal population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Rongjiong; Mao, Yushan

2017-09-13

Hypertension and the triglyceride and glucose index both have been associated with insulin resistance; however, the longitudinal association remains unclear. This study was designed to investigate the longitudinal association between the triglyceride and glucose index and incident hypertension among the Chinese population. We studied 4686 subjects (3177 males and 1509 females) and followed up for 9 years. The subjects were divided into four groups based on the triglyceride and glucose index. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to analyse the risk factors of hypertension. After 9 years of follow-up, 2047 subjects developed hypertension. The overall 9-year cumulative incidence of hypertension was 43.7%, ranging from 28.5% in quartile 1 to 36.9% in quartile 2, 49.2% in quartile 3 and 59.8% in quartile 4 (p for trend triglyceride and glucose index was associated with an increased risk of subsequent incident hypertension. The triglyceride and glucose index can predict the incident hypertension among the Chinese population.

Power Reactor Docket Information. Annual cumulation (citations)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1977-12-01

An annual cumulation of the citations to the documentation associated with civilian nuclear power plants is presented. This material is that which is submitted to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of applications for construction and operating licenses. Citations are listed by Docket number in accession number sequence. The Table of Contents is arranged both by Docket number and by nuclear power plant name

Sikap Kerja Duduk Terhadap Cumulative Trauma Disorder

OpenAIRE

Rahmawati, Yulita; Sugiharto, -

2011-01-01

Permasalahan yang diteliti adalah adakah hubungan antara sikap kerja duduk dengan kejadian Cumulative Trauma Disorder (CTD) pada pekerja bagian pengamplasan di PT. Geromar Jepara. Tujuan yang ingin dicapai adalah untuk mengetahui hubungan antara sikap kerja duduk dengan kejadian CTD pada pekerja bagian pengamplasan. Metode penelitian ini bersifat explanatory dengan menggunakan pendekatan belah lintang. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah pekerja bagian pengamplasan sebanyak 30 orang. Teknik ...

Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary, Annual Report 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, Gary E.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Borde, Amy B.; Dawley, Earl M.; Ebberts, Blaine D.; Putman, Douglas A.; Roegner, G. C.; Russell, Micah; Skalski, John R.; Thom, Ronald M.; Vavrinec, John

2008-10-01

The goal of this multi-year study (2004-2010) is to develop a methodology to evaluate the cumulative effects of multiple habitat restoration projects intended to benefit ecosystems supporting juvenile salmonids in the lower Columbia River and estuary. Literature review in 2004 revealed no existing methods for such an evaluation and suggested that cumulative effects could be additive or synergistic. Field research in 2005, 2006, and 2007 involved intensive, comparative studies paired by habitat type (tidal swamp vs. marsh), trajectory (restoration vs. reference site), and restoration action (tide gate vs. culvert vs. dike breach). The field work established two kinds of monitoring indicators for eventual cumulative effects analysis: core and higher-order indicators. Management implications of limitations and applications of site-specific effectiveness monitoring and cumulative effects analysis were identified.

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

2017-07-01

Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

Latino children’s autonomic nervous system reactivity moderates the relations between cumulative socioeconomic adversity in the first five years and externalizing behavior problems at seven years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abbey Alkon

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Background: Thirty-seven percent of Hispanic and Latino children under 5 years of age are living in poverty in the United States. Children growing up under conditions of cumulative adversity are at much greater risk for compromised psychosocial adjustment with long-lasting ramifications for mental and physical health. This study assessed whether the relations between adversity early in life and later externalizing behaviors was moderated by children’s autonomic nervous system (ANS reactivity for immigrant, poor, MexicanAmerican children. Methods: A cumulative socioeconomic adversity index of children’s exposure to poverty, father’s absence, household crowding, mothers speaking Spanish, and poor housing condition at 6 months and 1, 3.5, and 5 years of age was calculated. At 5 years, ANS profiles during resting and social- and emotion-evoking challenges were calculated as combined parasympathetic and sympathetic difference scores. At 7 years, parents assessed children’s externalizing behavior problems. Results: Multiple regression models (n=220 showed that the relations between cumulative socioeconomic adversity and externalizing behaviors were moderated by children’s ANS profiles of coactivation during a social, not emotion-evoking, challenge, controlling for relevant covariates. Conclusions: Children living in adverse conditions early in life with specific psychobiologic responses to social challenges may be at risk for developing externalizing behavior problems later in life.

Comparison between intensity- duration thresholds and cumulative rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide

Science.gov (United States)

Lagomarsino, Daniela; Rosi, Ascanio; Rossi, Guglielmo; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo

2014-05-01

This work makes a quantitative comparison between the results of landslide forecasting obtained using two different rainfall threshold models, one using intensity-duration thresholds and the other based on cumulative rainfall thresholds in an area of northern Tuscany of 116 km2. The first methodology identifies rainfall intensity-duration thresholds by means a software called MaCumBA (Massive CUMulative Brisk Analyzer) that analyzes rain-gauge records, extracts the intensities (I) and durations (D) of the rainstorms associated with the initiation of landslides, plots these values on a diagram, and identifies thresholds that define the lower bounds of the I-D values. A back analysis using data from past events can be used to identify the threshold conditions associated with the least amount of false alarms. The second method (SIGMA) is based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering: the statistical distribution of the rainfall series is analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) are used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. The name of the model, SIGMA, reflects the central role of the standard deviations in the proposed methodology. The definition of intensity-duration rainfall thresholds requires the combined use of rainfall measurements and an inventory of dated landslides, whereas SIGMA model can be implemented using only rainfall data. These two methodologies were applied in an area of 116 km2 where a database of 1200 landslides was available for the period 2000-2012. The results obtained are compared and discussed. Although several examples of visual comparisons between different intensity-duration rainfall thresholds are reported in the international literature, a quantitative comparison between thresholds obtained in the same area using different techniques and approaches is a relatively undebated research topic.

Overturn of magma ocean ilmenite cumulate layer: Implications for lunar magmatic evolution and formation of a lunar core

Science.gov (United States)

Hess, P. C.; Parmentier, E. M.

1993-01-01

We explore a model for the chemical evolution of the lunar interior that explains the origin and evolution of lunar magmatism and possibly the existence of a lunar core. A magma ocean formed during accretion differentiates into the anorthositic crust and chemically stratified cumulate mantle. The cumulative mantle is gravitationally unstable with dense ilmenite cumulate layers overlying olivine-orthopyroxene cumulates with Fe/Mg that decreases with depth. The dense ilmenite layer sinks to the center of the moon forming the core. The remainder of the gravitationally unstable cumulate pile also overturns. Any remaining primitive lunar mantle rises to its level of neutral buoyancy in the cumulate pile. Perhaps melting of primitive lunar mantle due to this decompression results in early lunar Mg-rich magmatism. Because of its high concentration of incompatible heat producing elements, the ilmenite core heats the overlying orthopyroxene-bearing cumulates. As a conductively thickening thermal boundary layer becomes unstable, the resulting mantle plumes rise, decompress, and partially melt to generate the mare basalts. This model explains both the timing and chemical characteristics of lunar magmatism.

Conceptual and methodological challenges to integrating SEA and cumulative effects assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gunn, Jill; Noble, Bram F.

2011-01-01

The constraints to assessing and managing cumulative environmental effects in the context of project-based environmental assessment are well documented, and the potential benefits of a more strategic approach to cumulative effects assessment (CEA) are well argued; however, such benefits have yet to be clearly demonstrated in practice. While it is widely assumed that cumulative effects are best addressed in a strategic context, there has been little investigation as to whether CEA and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) are a 'good fit' - conceptually or methodologically. This paper identifies a number of conceptual and methodological challenges to the integration of CEA and SEA. Based on results of interviews with international experts and practitioners, this paper demonstrates that: definitions and conceptualizations of CEA are typically weak in practice; approaches to effects aggregation vary widely; a systems perspective lacks in both SEA and CEA; the multifarious nature of SEA complicates CEA; tiering arrangements between SEA and project-based assessment are limited to non-existing; and the relationship of SEA to regional planning remains unclear.

Use of significance thresholds to integrate cumulative effects into project-level socio-economic impact assessment in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joseph, Chris; Zeeg, Taylor; Angus, David; Usborne, Anna; Mutrie, Erin

2017-01-01

A longstanding critique of project-level environmental assessment is that it is weak at addressing cumulative effects, and because of this many argue that cumulative effects are best managed at a regional scale. However, in the absence of regional management it is important that project-level assessment supports cumulative effects management as best as possible. In this paper we present case study socio-economic impact assessments of liquefied natural gas development on Aboriginal groups on Canada's west coast. The case studies use an analytical structure modified from typical Canadian practice including unambiguous and non-arbitrary significance thresholds grounded in stakeholder values to focus baselines, impact assessment, and significance determination on cumulative effects. This approach is found to be more capable of informing decision-makers on cumulative effects as well as more rigorous and transparent than typical assessments. Much of this approach is not conceptually new, but at least in western Canada such an approach is not typically used or meaningfully implemented by practitioners. As such, the case studies serve to illustrate how practice can bolster project-level assessment. - Highlights: •Typical project assessment is weak with respect to cumulative effects. •Modified analysis structure and thresholds enable a focus on cumulative effects. •Clear, value-based thresholds make analysis rigorous, transparent, and democratic.

Use of Geographic Information Systems to examine cumulative impacts of development on Mobile Bay, AL and Galveston Bay, TX

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosigno, P.F.; McNiff, M.E.; Watzin, M.C.; Ji, W.

1993-01-01

Databases from Mobile Bay, Alabama and Galveston Bay, Texas were compiled using ARC/INFO Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to examine the cumulative impacts from urbanization and industrialization on these two Gulf of Mexico estuaries. The databases included information on wetland habitats, pollution sources, metal contamination, bird-nesting sites, and oyster reefs, among others. A series of maps were used to represent the impacts within and between each ecosystem. These two estuaries share many similarities in the types of developmental pressures that each experience. However, difference in the magnitude of industrial activity, pollution loading, and urban growth coupled with distinct hydrodynamic and geochemical differences in sediment mineralogy, freshwater inflows and salinity regimens results in differing responses. With growing human population and extensive oil and gas development, the demands on Galveston Bay are quite different than those placed on Mobile Bay which has lower growth and less extensive oil and gas infrastructure. Mobile Bay tends to retain whatever contamination enters into the system because of the high levels of clay and organic carbon found in its sediment. Some of these chemicals bioaccumulate, posing an extra risk to natural resources. Geographic Information Systems provide natural resource managers with the technology to manage complex databases. The analytical and mapping capabilities of GIS can be used to consider cumulative effects in a regional context and to develop plans to protect ecologically sensitive areas

Kindling fires: examining the potential for cumulative learning in a Journalism curriculum

KAUST Repository

Kilpert, Leigh

2013-01-01

This study investigated context-dependency of learning as an indicator for students\\' potential to continue learning after graduation. We used Maton\\'s theoretical concepts of \\'cumulative\\' and \\'segmented\\' learning, and \\'semantic gravity\\', to look for context-independent learning in students\\' assessments in a Journalism curriculum. We postulated whether the curriculum constrained or enabled cumulative learning. Students\\' responses to assessments were coded by their degree of context-dependency, or semantic gravity. We found that, firstly, students are overly successful in producing context-dependent answers but struggle to deliver context-independent responses. Secondly, students were not effective when they used higher level knowledge principles without the foundation of lower level ones. Lastly, the marking criteria were encouraging markers to reward context-dependent answers over context-independent ones. This study has implications for educators interested in curriculum design that enables cumulative learning in discipline specific contexts. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-06-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility

Regulatory and technical reports (Abstract index journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-12-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility

Regulatory and technical reports (Abstract Index Journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-03-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility

Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-08-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility

Regulatory and technical reports (Abstract Index Journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-11-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility

Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-05-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility

Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-06-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility

Regulatory and technical reports (Abstract Index Journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-05-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility

Regulatory and technical reports (Abstract index journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-08-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility

Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-11-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility

Regulatory and technical reports (Abstract Index Journal)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-07-01

This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility

Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Margaret M. MacDonell

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

Stakeholder attitudes towards cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides.

Science.gov (United States)

Verbeke, Wim; Van Loo, Ellen J; Vanhonacker, Filiep; Delcour, Ilse; Spanoghe, Pieter; van Klaveren, Jacob D

2015-05-01

This study evaluates the attitudes and perspectives of different stakeholder groups (agricultural producers, pesticide manufacturers, trading companies, retailers, regulators, food safety authorities, scientists and NGOs) towards the concepts of cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides by means of qualitative in-depth interviews (n = 15) and a quantitative stakeholder survey (n = 65). The stakeholders involved generally agreed that the use of chemical pesticides is needed, primarily for meeting the need of feeding the growing world population, while clearly acknowledging the problematic nature of human exposure to pesticide residues. Current monitoring was generally perceived to be adequate, but the timeliness and consistency of monitoring practices across countries were questioned. The concept of cumulative exposure assessment was better understood by stakeholders than the concept of aggregate exposure assessment. Identified pitfalls were data availability, data limitations, sources and ways of dealing with uncertainties, as well as information and training needs. Regulators and food safety authorities were perceived as the stakeholder groups for whom cumulative and aggregate pesticide exposure assessment methods and tools would be most useful and acceptable. Insights obtained from this exploratory study have been integrated in the development of targeted and stakeholder-tailored dissemination and training programmes that were implemented within the EU-FP7 project ACROPOLIS. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new method to cluster genomes based on cumulative Fourier power spectrum.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Rui; Zhu, Ziyue; Yin, Changchuan; He, Rong L; Yau, Stephen S-T

2018-06-20

Analyzing phylogenetic relationships using mathematical methods has always been of importance in bioinformatics. Quantitative research may interpret the raw biological data in a precise way. Multiple Sequence Alignment (MSA) is used frequently to analyze biological evolutions, but is very time-consuming. When the scale of data is large, alignment methods cannot finish calculation in reasonable time. Therefore, we present a new method using moments of cumulative Fourier power spectrum in clustering the DNA sequences. Each sequence is translated into a vector in Euclidean space. Distances between the vectors can reflect the relationships between sequences. The mapping between the spectra and moment vector is one-to-one, which means that no information is lost in the power spectra during the calculation. We cluster and classify several datasets including Influenza A, primates, and human rhinovirus (HRV) datasets to build up the phylogenetic trees. Results show that the new proposed cumulative Fourier power spectrum is much faster and more accurately than MSA and another alignment-free method known as k-mer. The research provides us new insights in the study of phylogeny, evolution, and efficient DNA comparison algorithms for large genomes. The computer programs of the cumulative Fourier power spectrum are available at GitHub (https://github.com/YaulabTsinghua/cumulative-Fourier-power-spectrum). Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

Analysis of Memory Codes and Cumulative Rehearsal in Observational Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Bandura, Albert; And Others

1974-01-01

The present study examined the influence of memory codes varying in meaningfulness and retrievability and cumulative rehearsal on retention of observationally learned responses over increasing temporal intervals. (Editor)

Performance of a risk index for advanced proximal colorectal neoplasia among a racially/ethnically diverse patient population (risk index for advanced proximal neoplasia).

Science.gov (United States)

Levitzky, Benjamin E; Brown, Colin C; Heeren, Timothy C; Schroy, Paul C

2011-06-01

Tailoring the use of screening colonoscopy based on the risk of advanced proximal neoplasia (APN) has been advocated as a strategy for reducing demand and optimizing effectiveness. A 7-point index based on age, sex, and distal findings at sigmoidoscopy has been proposed that stratifies individuals into low, intermediate, and high-risk categories. The aim of this cross-sectional analysis was to determine the validity of this index, which was originally derived and validated among mostly whites, for black and Hispanic patients. Data, including age, sex, colonoscopic findings, and pathology, were collected retrospectively from 1,481 white, 1,329 black, and 689 Hispanic asymptomatic, average-risk patients undergoing screening colonoscopy between 2000 and 2005. Cumulative scores ranging from 0 to 7 were derived for each subject and categorized as low, intermediate, or high risk. Rates of APN were assessed for each risk category after stratification by race/ethnicity. Index performance was assessed using the C-statistic and compared across the three racial groups. Rates of APN among patients categorized as low, intermediate, or high risk increased from 1.0 to 2.8 to 3.7% for whites, 1.0 to 2.2 to 4.2% for blacks, and 0.6 to 1.9 to 3.7% for Hispanics. The index performed similarly for all three groups, but showed limited ability to discriminate low from intermediate-risk patients, with C-statistic values of 0.62 for whites, 0.63 for blacks, and 0.68 for Hispanics. A risk index based on age, sex, and distal endoscopic findings has limited ability to discriminate low from intermediate-risk white, black, and Hispanic patients for APN.

Proceedings of a workshop on the potential cumulative impacts of development in the region of Hudson and James Bays, 17-19 June 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunch, J.N.; Reeves, R.R.

1992-01-01

An interdepartmental scientific workshop was held to begin developing a response by the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans to concerns about cumulative environmental effects of development in the region of Hudson Bay and James Bay. Discussions at the workshop centered on the major hydroelectric projects that are proposed or under way in that region. The main product of the workshop was a series of working hypotheses referring to potential cumulative effects under four headings: physics; inorganic nutrients, organic carbon, and suspended matter fluxes; mercury and other contaminants; and biological resources. Several of the hypotheses, such as those concerning the direction of physical changes due to modification of the timing and location of freshwater discharge, problems of mercury mobilization and contamination, and decreased productivity of anadromous fish populations, were considered well-supported by available data. Other hypotheses, such as those related to primary and secondary productivity in estuarine and marine environments, effects on isolated populations of harbor seals and Atlantic salmon, and the likely responses of fish and marine mammals to altered conditions in estuaries, were judged as needing more focused research. 27 refs., 2 figs

Reducing Production Basis Risk through Rainfall Intensity Frequency (RIF) Indexes: Global Sensitivity Analysis' Implication on Policy Design

Science.gov (United States)

Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus; Huffaker, Ray; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael

2016-04-01

The weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions with swift compensation at affordable premium thanks to its minimal adverse selection and moral hazard. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing causes the presence of "production basis risk" that the selected weather indexes and their thresholds do not correspond to actual damages. To reduce basis risk without additional data collection cost, we propose the use of rain intensity and frequency as indexes as it could offer better protection at the lower premium by avoiding basis risk-strike trade-off inherent in the total rainfall index. We present empirical evidences and modeling results that even under the similar cumulative rainfall and temperature environment, yield can significantly differ especially for drought sensitive crops. We further show that deriving the trigger level and payoff function from regression between historical yield and total rainfall data may pose significant basis risk owing to their non-unique relationship in the insured range of rainfall. Lastly, we discuss the design of index insurance in terms of contract specifications based on the results from global sensitivity analysis.

Cumulative Risk of Bovine Mastitis Treatments in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden

OpenAIRE

Valde, JP; Lawson, LG; Lindberg, A; Agger, JF; Saloniemi, H; Østerås, O

2004-01-01

Data from the national dairy cow recording systems during 1997 were used to calculate lactation-specific cumulative risk of mastitis treatments and cumulative risk of removal from the herds in Denmark, Finland Norway and Sweden. Sweden had the lowest risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation and Norway had the highest risk. The incidence risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden was 0.177, 0.139, 0.215 and...

Peer tutors as learning and teaching partners: a cumulative ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... paper explores the kinds of development in tutors' thinking and action that are possible when training and development is theoretically informed, coherent, and oriented towards improving practice. Keywords: academic development, academic literacies, cumulative learning, higher education, peer tutoring, writing centres.

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karremann, Melanie K; Pinto, Joaquim G; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

2014-01-01

Possible future changes of clustering and return periods (RPs) of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of reanalysis. Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels (RLs)) are used to assess RPs of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Additionally, 800 winters of general circulation model simulations for present (1960–2000) and future (2060–2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries, and estimated RPs are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of RPs are estimated for fixed RLs and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter RPs are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter RPs are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the RPs for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of pre-industrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed RLs. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate. (letter)

Repeat Assessed Values Model for Housing Price Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carini Manuela

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study proposes an innovative methodology, named Repeat Appraised Price Model (RAV, useful for determining the price index numbers for real estate markets and the corresponding index numbers of hedonic prices of main real estate characteristics in the case of a lack of data. The methodological approach proposed in this paper aims to appraise the time series of price index numbers. It integrates the principles of the method of repeat sales with the peculiarities of the Hedonic Price Method, overcoming the problem of an almost total absence of repeat sales for the same property in a given time range; on the other hand, the technique aims to overcome the limitation of the repeat sales technique concerning the inability to take into account the characteristics of individual properties.

Changes in corneal endothelial cell density and the cumulative risk of corneal decompensation after Ahmed glaucoma valve implantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kyoung Nam; Lee, Sung Bok; Lee, Yeon Hee; Lee, Jong Joo; Lim, Hyung Bin; Kim, Chang-Sik

2016-07-01

To evaluate changes in the corneal endothelial cell density (ECD) and corneal decompensation following Ahmed glaucoma valve (AGV) implantation. This study was retrospective and observational case series. Patients with refractory glaucoma who underwent AGV implantation and were followed >5 years were consecutively enrolled. We reviewed the medical records, including the results of central corneal specular microscopy. Of the 127 enrolled patients, the annual change in ECD (%) was determined using linear regression for 72 eyes evaluated at least four times using serial specular microscopic examination and compared with 31 control eyes (fellow glaucomatous eyes under medical treatment). The main outcome measures were cumulative risk of corneal decompensation and differences in the ECD loss rates between subjects and controls. The mean follow-up after AGV implantation was 43.1 months. There were no cases of postoperative tube-corneal touch. The cumulative risk of corneal decompensation was 3.3%, 5 years after AGV implantation. There was a more rapid loss of ECD in the 72 subject eyes compared with the 31 controls (-7.0% and -0.1%/year, respectively; p<0.001). However, the rate of loss decreased over time and statistical significance compared with control eyes disappeared after 2 years postoperatively: -10.7% from baseline to 1 year (p<0.01), -7.0% from 1 year to 2 years (p=0.037), -4.2% from 2 years to 3 years (p=0.230) and -2.7% from 3 years to the final follow-up (p=0.111). In case of uncomplicated AGV implantation, the cumulative risk of corneal decompensation was 3.3%, 5 years after the operation. The ECD loss was statistically greater in eyes with AGV than in control eyes without AGV, but the difference was significant only up to 2 years post surgery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Unified framework for triaxial accelerometer-based fall event detection and classification using cumulants and hierarchical decision tree classifier.

Science.gov (United States)

Kambhampati, Satya Samyukta; Singh, Vishal; Manikandan, M Sabarimalai; Ramkumar, Barathram

2015-08-01

In this Letter, the authors present a unified framework for fall event detection and classification using the cumulants extracted from the acceleration (ACC) signals acquired using a single waist-mounted triaxial accelerometer. The main objective of this Letter is to find suitable representative cumulants and classifiers in effectively detecting and classifying different types of fall and non-fall events. It was discovered that the first level of the proposed hierarchical decision tree algorithm implements fall detection using fifth-order cumulants and support vector machine (SVM) classifier. In the second level, the fall event classification algorithm uses the fifth-order cumulants and SVM. Finally, human activity classification is performed using the second-order cumulants and SVM. The detection and classification results are compared with those of the decision tree, naive Bayes, multilayer perceptron and SVM classifiers with different types of time-domain features including the second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-order cumulants and the signal magnitude vector and signal magnitude area. The experimental results demonstrate that the second- and fifth-order cumulant features and SVM classifier can achieve optimal detection and classification rates of above 95%, as well as the lowest false alarm rate of 1.03%.

Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Coiera, Enrico; Wang, Ying; Magrabi, Farah; Concha, Oscar Perez; Gallego, Blanca; Runciman, William

2014-05-21

Current prognostic models factor in patient and disease specific variables but do not consider cumulative risks of hospitalization over time. We developed risk models of the likelihood of death associated with cumulative exposure to hospitalization, based on time-varying risks of hospitalization over any given day, as well as day of the week. Model performance was evaluated alone, and in combination with simple disease-specific models. Patients admitted between 2000 and 2006 from 501 public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia were used for training and 2007 data for evaluation. The impact of hospital care delivered over different days of the week and or times of the day was modeled by separating hospitalization risk into 21 separate time periods (morning, day, night across the days of the week). Three models were developed to predict death up to 7-days post-discharge: 1/a simple background risk model using age, gender; 2/a time-varying risk model for exposure to hospitalization (admission time, days in hospital); 3/disease specific models (Charlson co-morbidity index, DRG). Combining these three generated a full model. Models were evaluated by accuracy, AUC, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. There was a clear diurnal rhythm to hospital mortality in the data set, peaking in the evening, as well as the well-known 'weekend-effect' where mortality peaks with weekend admissions. Individual models had modest performance on the test data set (AUC 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79 respectively). The combined model which included time-varying risk however yielded an average AUC of 0.92. This model performed best for stays up to 7-days (93% of admissions), peaking at days 3 to 5 (AUC 0.94). Risks of hospitalization vary not just with the day of the week but also time of the day, and can be used to make predictions about the cumulative risk of death associated with an individual's hospitalization. Combining disease specific models with such time varying- estimates appears to

Preserved cumulative semantic interference despite amnesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gary Michael Oppenheim

2015-05-01

As predicted by Oppenheim et al’s (2010 implicit incremental learning account, WRP’s BCN RTs demonstrated strong (and significant repetition priming and semantic blocking effects (Figure 1. Similar to typical results from neurally intact undergraduates, WRP took longer to name pictures presented in semantically homogeneous blocks than in heterogeneous blocks, an effect that increased with each cycle. This result challenges accounts that ascribe cumulative semantic interference in this task to explicit memory mechanisms, instead suggesting that the effect has the sort of implicit learning bases that are typically spared in hippocampal amnesia.

A framework for consistent estimation of leaf area index, fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, and surface albedo from MODIS time-series data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xiao, Zhiqiang; Liang, Shunlin; Wang, Jindi

2015-01-01

-series MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data. If the reflectance data showed snow-free areas, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique was used to estimate leaf area index (LAI) for a two-layer canopy reflectance model (ACRM) by combining predictions from a phenology...... model and the MODIS surface reflectance data. The estimated LAI values were then input into the ACRM to calculate the surface albedo and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR). For snow-covered areas, the surface albedo was calculated as the underlying vegetation canopy...... albedo plus the weighted distance between the underlying vegetation canopy albedo and the albedo over deep snow. The LAI/FAPAR and surface albedo values estimated using this framework were compared with MODIS collection 5 eight-day 1-km LAI/FAPAR products (MOD15A2) and 500-m surface albedo product (MCD43...

Baseline for the cumulants of net-proton distributions at STAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Xiaofeng; Mohanty, Bedangadas; Xu, Nu

2014-01-01

We present a systematic comparison between the recently measured cumulants of the net-proton distributions by STAR for 0–5% central Au + Au collisions at √(s NN )=7.7–200 GeV and two kinds of possible baseline measure, the Poisson and Binomial baselines. These baseline measures are assuming that the proton and anti-proton distributions independently follow Poisson statistics or Binomial statistics. The higher order cumulant net-proton data are observed to deviate from all the baseline measures studied at 19.6 and 27 GeV. We also compare the net-proton with net-baryon fluctuations in UrQMD and AMPT model, and convert the net-proton fluctuations to net-baryon fluctuations in AMPT model by using a set of formula

Radiologic imaging in cystic fibrosis: cumulative effective dose and changing trends over 2 decades.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

O'Connell, Oisin J

2012-06-01

With the increasing life expectancy for patients with cystic fibrosis (CF), and a known predisposition to certain cancers, cumulative radiation exposure from radiologic imaging is of increasing significance. This study explores the estimated cumulative effective radiation dose over a 17-year period from radiologic procedures and changing trends of imaging modalities over this period.

Cumulative Beam Breakup due to Resistive-Wall Wake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, J.-M.

2004-01-01

The cumulative beam breakup problem excited by the resistive-wall wake is formulated. An approximate analytic method of finding the asymptotic behavior for the transverse bunch displacement is developed and solved. Comparison between the asymptotic analytical expression and the direct numerical solution is presented. Good agreement is found. The criterion of using the asymptotic analytical expression is discussed

Validity of the cumulant method for a pulse nonlinear Kerr oscillator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grygiel, K.; Leonski, W.; Szlachetka, P.

1998-01-01

We study the dynamics of an anharmonic oscillator driven by a train of pulses. The cumulant expansion and quantum evolution operator approaches are presented and compared. The modifications introduced by quantum mechanics into the dynamics of classical systems which manifest chaos are a problem of great importance. It is known that quantization modifies the dynamics of classical system is usually studied by means of the equation for the Wigner function derived from the quantum Liouville equation. In Wigner's formulation of quantum mechanics we treat a quantum system in a 'classical way' including all their quantum features. And what is more, we can contrast the quantum and classical dynamics within the framework of one formalism. The problem is, that the equations for the Wigner functions are mathematically cumbersome and their analytic solutions for most nonlinear systems are unknown. However, instead of the equation for the Wigner function we can use the set of equations for statistical moments generated by our equation for the Wigner function. It is obvious that in this approach a quantum system is governed by an infinite set of equations. Therefore, for numerical reasons the set of equations for statistical moments has to be truncated at a finite number, which means approximating it. It is known that first cumulant approximation represents the classical dynamics. The second cumulant approximation adds the first quantum corrections to the classical dynamics. In this paper we compare some aspects of the cumulant method and the method used by Leonski and Tanas to study an anharmonic oscillator driven by a train of pulses. The Kerr oscillator model is the same ad that is discussed in an earlier paper albeit without the damping mechanism

Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

OpenAIRE

Olazarán, J.; Trincado, R.; Bermejo-Pareja, F.

2013-01-01

Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD), with control of vascular factors (VFs). Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES) study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (n...

TREND: a program using cumulative sum methods to detect long-term trends in data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cranston, R.J.; Dunbar, R.M.; Jarvis, R.G.

1976-01-01

TREND is a computer program, in FORTRAN, to investigate data for long-term trends that are masked by short-term statistical fluctuations. To do this, it calculates and plots the cumulative sum of deviations from a chosen mean. As a further aid to diagnosis, the procedure can be repeated with a summation of the cumulative sum itself. (author)

Cumulative risk hypothesis: Predicting and preventing child maltreatment recidivism.

Science.gov (United States)

Solomon, David; Åsberg, Kia; Peer, Samuel; Prince, Gwendolyn

2016-08-01

Although Child Protective Services (CPS) and other child welfare agencies aim to prevent further maltreatment in cases of child abuse and neglect, recidivism is common. Having a better understanding of recidivism predictors could aid in preventing additional instances of maltreatment. A previous study identified two CPS interventions that predicted recidivism: psychotherapy for the parent, which was related to a reduced risk of recidivism, and temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody, which was related to an increased recidivism risk. However, counter to expectations, this previous study did not identify any other specific risk factors related to maltreatment recidivism. For the current study, it was hypothesized that (a) cumulative risk (i.e., the total number of risk factors) would significantly predict maltreatment recidivism above and beyond intervention variables in a sample of CPS case files and that (b) therapy for the parent would be related to a reduced likelihood of recidivism. Because it was believed that the relation between temporary removal of a child from the parent's custody and maltreatment recidivism is explained by cumulative risk, the study also hypothesized that that the relation between temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody and recidivism would be mediated by cumulative risk. After performing a hierarchical logistic regression analysis, the first two hypotheses were supported, and an additional predictor, psychotherapy for the child, also was related to reduced chances of recidivism. However, Hypothesis 3 was not supported, as risk did not significantly mediate the relation between temporary removal and recidivism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Role of Cumulative Risk Assessment in Decisions about Environmental Justice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ken Sexton

2010-11-01

Full Text Available There is strong presumptive evidence that people living in poverty and certain racial and ethnic groups bear a disproportionate burden of environmental health risk. Many have argued that conducting formal assessments of the health risk experienced by affected communities is both unnecessary and counterproductive—that instead of analyzing the situation our efforts should be devoted to fixing obvious problems and rectifying observable wrongs. We contend that formal assessment of cumulative health risks from combined effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors is a valuable tool to aid decision makers in choosing risk management options that are effective, efficient, and equitable. If used properly, cumulative risk assessment need not impair decision makers’ discretion, nor should it be used as an excuse for doing nothing in the face of evident harm. Good policy decisions require more than good intentions; they necessitate analysis of risk-related information along with careful consideration of economic issues, ethical and moral principles, legal precedents, political realities, cultural beliefs, societal values, and bureaucratic impediments. Cumulative risk assessment can provide a systematic and impartial means for informing policy decisions about environmental justice.

Cumulative t-link threshold models for the genetic analysis of calving ease scores

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tempelman Robert J

2003-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract In this study, a hierarchical threshold mixed model based on a cumulative t-link specification for the analysis of ordinal data or more, specifically, calving ease scores, was developed. The validation of this model and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC algorithm was carried out on simulated data from normally and t4 (i.e. a t-distribution with four degrees of freedom distributed populations using the deviance information criterion (DIC and a pseudo Bayes factor (PBF measure to validate recently proposed model choice criteria. The simulation study indicated that although inference on the degrees of freedom parameter is possible, MCMC mixing was problematic. Nevertheless, the DIC and PBF were validated to be satisfactory measures of model fit to data. A sire and maternal grandsire cumulative t-link model was applied to a calving ease dataset from 8847 Italian Piemontese first parity dams. The cumulative t-link model was shown to lead to posterior means of direct and maternal heritabilities (0.40 ± 0.06, 0.11 ± 0.04 and a direct maternal genetic correlation (-0.58 ± 0.15 that were not different from the corresponding posterior means of the heritabilities (0.42 ± 0.07, 0.14 ± 0.04 and the genetic correlation (-0.55 ± 0.14 inferred under the conventional cumulative probit link threshold model. Furthermore, the correlation (> 0.99 between posterior means of sire progeny merit from the two models suggested no meaningful rerankings. Nevertheless, the cumulative t-link model was decisively chosen as the better fitting model for this calving ease data using DIC and PBF.

CTD Information Guide. Preventing Cumulative Trauma Disorders in the Workplace

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

1992-01-01

The purpose of this report is to provide Army occupational safety and health (OSH) professionals with a primer that explains the basic principles of ergonomic-hazard recognition for common cumulative trauma disorders...

Academic impact and rankings of American and Canadian neurosurgical departments as assessed using the h index.

Science.gov (United States)

Ponce, Francisco A; Lozano, Andres M

2010-09-01

The authors undertook a study to estimate the relative academic impact of neurosurgical departments in Canada and the US using the h index, a measure of the number of citations received by a collection of work. The study included 99 departments of neurosurgery with residency programs participating in the US National Residency Matching Program, and the 14 analogous Canadian programs. Three types of h indices were determined-one reflecting the cumulative work attributed to a neurosurgical department, h(c); one restricted to the cumulative work published over the past 10 years, h(10); and one limited to work published in 2 major North American neurosurgical journals, h(NS)(10). For an article to be included, attribution to a neurosurgical department had to appear in the address field in the database Thomson's ISI Web of Science. The three h indices were compared with each other, and their relation to other measures such as size of the department, degrees held by the faculty, and research funding was examined. Significant correlations were found between the citation indices and faculty size, number of publications and the types of degrees held by the faculty, and funding by the US NIH. Three types of authorship were identified: neurosurgeon, nonclinician researcher, and nonneurosurgeon clinical affiliate. The degree to which the latter 2 nonneurosurgeon categories contributed to the departmental h index varied among departments and can confound interdepartmental comparison. Limiting articles to those published in neurosurgical journals appeared to correct for the influence of nonneurosurgeons in departmental impact and reflect neurosurgeon-driven scholarship. The h index may be useful in evaluating output across neurosurgery departments.

Breakdown and assessment of cumulative exergy losses for a turbojet over a flight

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosen, M. [Univ. of Ontario Inst. of Technology, Oshawa, ON (Canada). Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science

2007-07-01

This paper presented an exergy analysis conducted to evaluate the contribution of exhaust emissions from the engine of a turbojet to the craft's total exergy losses. The aim of the study was to understand the most significant exergy losses in aerospace engines in order to increase energy efficiency. The analysis was also conducted to further break down components of the exhaust's emissions as well as to assess the sensitivity of the results in relation to their reference environment. The exergy analysis formed part of a series of analyses conducted on a turbojet over a complete flight. Results of the study demonstrated that the use of a constant reference environment resulted in errors as high as 52 per cent when compared with results obtained using a reference environment that changed at the same time as the operating environment. The error was dependent on the distance flow. When the constant reference environment was set at the cruising altitude, the error was reduced as the flight distance increased. It was concluded that any constant reference environment produced false trends when cumulative exergy losses were examined over a flight cycle. 19 refs., 5 figs.

A probabilistic analysis of cumulative carbon emissions and long-term planetary warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fyke, Jeremy; Matthews, H Damon

2015-01-01

Efforts to mitigate and adapt to long-term climate change could benefit greatly from probabilistic estimates of cumulative carbon emissions due to fossil fuel burning and resulting CO 2 -induced planetary warming. Here we demonstrate the use of a reduced-form model to project these variables. We performed simulations using a large-ensemble framework with parametric uncertainty sampled to produce distributions of future cumulative emissions and consequent planetary warming. A hind-cast ensemble of simulations captured 1980–2012 historical CO 2 emissions trends and an ensemble of future projection simulations generated a distribution of emission scenarios that qualitatively resembled the suite of Representative and Extended Concentration Pathways. The resulting cumulative carbon emission and temperature change distributions are characterized by 5–95th percentile ranges of 0.96–4.9 teratonnes C (Tt C) and 1.4 °C–8.5 °C, respectively, with 50th percentiles at 3.1 Tt C and 4.7 °C. Within the wide range of policy-related parameter combinations that produced these distributions, we found that low-emission simulations were characterized by both high carbon prices and low costs of non-fossil fuel energy sources, suggesting the importance of these two policy levers in particular for avoiding dangerous levels of climate warming. With this analysis we demonstrate a probabilistic approach to the challenge of identifying strategies for limiting cumulative carbon emissions and assessing likelihoods of surpassing dangerous temperature thresholds. (letter)

Cumulating the Supplements to the Seventh Edition of LC Subject Headings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roy B. Torkington

1973-12-01

Full Text Available A description is presented of the project of the University of California Library Automation Program to cumulate the 1966 through 1971 supplements to the Library of Congress Subject Headings. The University of California Institute of Library Research MARC processing software, BIBCON, was used, with specially written programs. The resulting cumulation was edited, printed in book form, and made available to libraries. The final task involved merging six MARC files into one file of over 125,000 records and then printing that file in a format similar to that of LC Subject Headings. The project was a cooperative effort with participation by people from several UC campuses.

Cumulative Risks of Foster Care Placement for Danish Children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

2014-01-01

children. Our results also show some variations by parental ethnicity and sex, but these differences are small. Indeed, they appear quite muted relative to racial/ethnic differences in these risks in the United States. Last, though cumulative risks are similar between Danish and American children...

Detecting changes in rainfall pattern and seasonality index vis-`a-vis ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

index vis-`a-vis increasing water scarcity in Maharashtra ... in the district scale are identified by trend analysis of rainfall time series. ... for better disaster management and water resource ..... productivity and irrigation water supply in the con-.

A method proposal for cumulative environmental impact assessment based on the landscape vulnerability evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pavlickova, Katarina; Vyskupova, Monika

2015-01-01

Cumulative environmental impact assessment deals with the occasional use in practical application of environmental impact assessment process. The main reasons are the difficulty of cumulative impact identification caused by lack of data, inability to measure the intensity and spatial effect of all types of impacts and the uncertainty of their future evolution. This work presents a method proposal to predict cumulative impacts on the basis of landscape vulnerability evaluation. For this purpose, qualitative assessment of landscape ecological stability is conducted and major vulnerability indicators of environmental and socio-economic receptors are specified and valuated. Potential cumulative impacts and the overall impact significance are predicted quantitatively in modified Argonne multiple matrixes while considering the vulnerability of affected landscape receptors and the significance of impacts identified individually. The method was employed in the concrete environmental impact assessment process conducted in Slovakia. The results obtained in this case study reflect that this methodology is simple to apply, valid for all types of impacts and projects, inexpensive and not time-consuming. The objectivity of the partial methods used in this procedure is improved by quantitative landscape ecological stability evaluation, assignment of weights to vulnerability indicators based on the detailed characteristics of affected factors, and grading impact significance. - Highlights: • This paper suggests a method proposal for cumulative impact prediction. • The method includes landscape vulnerability evaluation. • The vulnerability of affected receptors is determined by their sensitivity. • This method can increase the objectivity of impact prediction in the EIA process

Adaptive time-variant models for fuzzy-time-series forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Wai-Keung; Bai, Enjian; Chu, Alice Wai-Ching

2010-12-01

A fuzzy time series has been applied to the prediction of enrollment, temperature, stock indices, and other domains. Related studies mainly focus on three factors, namely, the partition of discourse, the content of forecasting rules, and the methods of defuzzification, all of which greatly influence the prediction accuracy of forecasting models. These studies use fixed analysis window sizes for forecasting. In this paper, an adaptive time-variant fuzzy-time-series forecasting model (ATVF) is proposed to improve forecasting accuracy. The proposed model automatically adapts the analysis window size of fuzzy time series based on the prediction accuracy in the training phase and uses heuristic rules to generate forecasting values in the testing phase. The performance of the ATVF model is tested using both simulated and actual time series including the enrollments at the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, and the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX). The experiment results show that the proposed ATVF model achieves a significant improvement in forecasting accuracy as compared to other fuzzy-time-series forecasting models.

A simplified model for cumulative damage with interaction effect for creep loading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomuc, R.; Bui-Quoc, T.; Biron, A.

1989-01-01

This paper explains that the basic creep-rupture behavior of a material at high temperature is obtained with constant stresses under isothermal conditions. Structural components operating at high temperature are, however, usually subjected to fluctuations of stresses and/or temperatures. Experimental conditions cannot cover all possible combinations of these parameters and, in addition, systematic investigations on cumulative creep damage are very limited due to long-term testing. The authors suggest that there is a need to establish a reliable procedure for evaluating the cumulative creep damage effect under non-steady stresses and temperatures

Minimum entropy density method for the time series analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jeong Won; Park, Joongwoo Brian; Jo, Hang-Hyun; Yang, Jae-Suk; Moon, Hie-Tae

2009-01-01

The entropy density is an intuitive and powerful concept to study the complicated nonlinear processes derived from physical systems. We develop the minimum entropy density method (MEDM) to detect the structure scale of a given time series, which is defined as the scale in which the uncertainty is minimized, hence the pattern is revealed most. The MEDM is applied to the financial time series of Standard and Poor’s 500 index from February 1983 to April 2006. Then the temporal behavior of structure scale is obtained and analyzed in relation to the information delivery time and efficient market hypothesis.

Nonlinear Fluctuation Behavior of Financial Time Series Model by Statistical Physics System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wuyang Cheng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We develop a random financial time series model of stock market by one of statistical physics systems, the stochastic contact interacting system. Contact process is a continuous time Markov process; one interpretation of this model is as a model for the spread of an infection, where the epidemic spreading mimics the interplay of local infections and recovery of individuals. From this financial model, we study the statistical behaviors of return time series, and the corresponding behaviors of returns for Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSECI and Hang Seng Index (HSI are also comparatively studied. Further, we investigate the Zipf distribution and multifractal phenomenon of returns and price changes. Zipf analysis and MF-DFA analysis are applied to investigate the natures of fluctuations for the stock market.

Analysis of sensory ratings data with cumulative link models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen; Brockhoff, Per B.

2013-01-01

Examples of categorical rating scales include discrete preference, liking and hedonic rating scales. Data obtained on these scales are often analyzed with normal linear regression methods or with omnibus Pearson chi2 tests. In this paper we propose to use cumulative link models that allow for reg...

Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets

Science.gov (United States)

Damon Matthews, H.; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Knutti, Reto; Allen, Myles R.

2018-01-01

The Environmental Research Letters focus issue on ‘Cumulative Emissions, Global Carbon Budgets and the Implications for Climate Mitigation Targets’ was launched in 2015 to highlight the emerging science of the climate response to cumulative emissions, and how this can inform efforts to decrease emissions fast enough to avoid dangerous climate impacts. The 22 research articles published represent a fantastic snapshot of the state-or-the-art in this field, covering both the science and policy aspects of cumulative emissions and carbon budget research. In this Review and Synthesis, we summarize the findings published in this focus issue, outline some suggestions for ongoing research needs, and present our assessment of the implications of this research for ongoing efforts to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

Quality Index Method (QIM) scheme developed for farmed Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar )

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sveinsdóttir, K.; Hyldig, Grethe; Martinsdóttir, E.

2003-01-01

The aim of the study was to develop 'Quality Index Method (QIM) scheme for raw, farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and to evaluate the scheme. in a shelf life study. QIM is based on the evaluation of key parameters in the deterioration of seafood's. Demerit points are assigned to selected...... parameters according to their importance and a Quality Index (QI) is established by cumulating the resulting scores. The maximum storage time in ice was determined with Quantitative Descriptive Analysis (QDA) of the salmon after cooking and found to be 20-21 days. This was used as a reference to enable...... prediction of the remaining storage time of raw salmon in ice with QIM. The calculated QI evolved linearly with storage time in ice (QI=0.82x (days in ice)+0.18, R-2=0.97). Individual salmon varied in QI within each storage day. However, the multivariate analysis (PLS1) demonstrated that storage time could...

Fuzzy set theory for cumulative trauma prediction

OpenAIRE

Fonseca, Daniel J.; Merritt, Thomas W.; Moynihan, Gary P.

2001-01-01

A widely used fuzzy reasoning algorithm was modified and implemented via an expert system to assess the potential risk of employee repetitive strain injury in the workplace. This fuzzy relational model, known as the Priority First Cover Algorithm (PFC), was adapted to describe the relationship between 12 cumulative trauma disorders (CTDs) of the upper extremity, and 29 identified risk factors. The algorithm, which finds a suboptimal subset from a group of variables based on the criterion of...

Analysis of cumulative energy consumption in an oxy-fuel combustion power plant integrated with a CO2 processing unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ziębik, Andrzej; Gładysz, Paweł

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Oxy-fuel combustion is promising CCS technology. • Sum of direct and indirect energy consumption ought to be consider. • This sum is expressed by cumulative energy consumption. • Input–output analysis is adequate method of CCS modeling. - Abstract: A balance of direct energy consumption is not a sufficient tool for an energy analysis of an oxy-fuel combustion power plant because of the indirect consumption of energy in preceding processes in the energy-technological set of interconnections. The sum of direct and indirect consumption expresses cumulative energy consumption. Based on the “input–output” model of direct energy consumption the mathematical model of cumulative energy consumption concerning an integrated oxy-fuel combustion power plant has been developed. Three groups of energy carriers or materials are to be distinguished, viz. main products, by-products and external supplies not supplementing the main production. The mathematical model of the balance of cumulative energy consumption based on the assumption that the indices of cumulative energy consumption of external supplies (mainly fuels and raw materials) are known a’priori. It results from weak connections between domestic economy and an integrated oxy-fuel combustion power plant. The paper presents both examples of the balances of direct and cumulative energy consumption. The results of calculations of indices of cumulative energy consumption concerning main products are presented. A comparison of direct and cumulative energy effects between three variants has been worked out. Calculations of the indices of cumulative energy consumption were also subjected to sensitive analysis. The influence of the indices of cumulative energy consumption of external supplies (input data), as well as the assumption concerning the utilization of solid by-products of the combustion process have been investigated

Thomson Reuters to release Book Citation Index later this year

Science.gov (United States)

Aldred, Maxine

2011-08-01

Thomson Reuters will launch its new Book Citation Index later this year. Projected to include 25,000 volumes from major publishers and university presses in science, social science, and the humanities, the Book Citation Index will cover scholarly books (both series and nonseries) that present original research or literature reviews. The current effort regarding the science section is focused on books published from 2005 to the present. AGU has sent copies of its catalog for inclusion in the Book Citation Index, but the final selection will be made by Thomson Reuters, using its internal selection criteria, which may be found at http://wokinfo.com/wok/media/pdf/BKCI-SelectionEssay_web.pdf.

Franchise Index/Profile: A Franchise Evaluation Process. Small Business Management Series No. 35.

Science.gov (United States)

Stigelman, C. R.

The book is presented as an aid to those who have decided to invest in, or who are seriously interested in investigating, a franchise opportunity. The material presented is an index of basic information a person should have about a particular franchise to enable him to make a valid determination as to whether or not a specific franchise is the…

Visibility graph analysis on quarterly macroeconomic series of China based on complex network theory

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Na; Li, Dong; Wang, Qiwen

2012-12-01

The visibility graph approach and complex network theory provide a new insight into time series analysis. The inheritance of the visibility graph from the original time series was further explored in the paper. We found that degree distributions of visibility graphs extracted from Pseudo Brownian Motion series obtained by the Frequency Domain algorithm exhibit exponential behaviors, in which the exponential exponent is a binomial function of the Hurst index inherited in the time series. Our simulations presented that the quantitative relations between the Hurst indexes and the exponents of degree distribution function are different for different series and the visibility graph inherits some important features of the original time series. Further, we convert some quarterly macroeconomic series including the growth rates of value-added of three industry series and the growth rates of Gross Domestic Product series of China to graphs by the visibility algorithm and explore the topological properties of graphs associated from the four macroeconomic series, namely, the degree distribution and correlations, the clustering coefficient, the average path length, and community structure. Based on complex network analysis we find degree distributions of associated networks from the growth rates of value-added of three industry series are almost exponential and the degree distributions of associated networks from the growth rates of GDP series are scale free. We also discussed the assortativity and disassortativity of the four associated networks as they are related to the evolutionary process of the original macroeconomic series. All the constructed networks have “small-world” features. The community structures of associated networks suggest dynamic changes of the original macroeconomic series. We also detected the relationship among government policy changes, community structures of associated networks and macroeconomic dynamics. We find great influences of government

Critical Dispersion-Theory Tests of Silicon's IR Refractive Index

Science.gov (United States)

Karstens, William; Smith, D. Y.

Silicon strongly absorbs both visible and UV light, but is highly transparent in the IR. Hence, it is a common choice for infrared windows and lenses. However, optical design is hindered by literature index values that disagree by up to 1%. In contrast optical-glass indices are known to 0.01% or better. The most widely available silicon IR indices are based on bulk measurements using either Snell's-Law refraction by a prism or channel-spectra interference of front- and backsurface reflections from a planar sample. To test the physical acceptability of these data, we have developed criteria based on a Taylor expansion of the Kramers-Kronig relation for the index at energies below strong inter-band transitions. These tests require that the coefficients of the series in powers of energy squared must be positive within the region of transparency. This is satisfied by essentially all prism measurements; their small scatter arises primarily from impurities and doping. In contrast, channel-spectra data fail in the second and third coefficients. A review of the experimental analysis indicates three problems besides purity: incorrect channel number arising from a channel-spectra model that neglects spectrum distortion by the weak lattice absorption; use of a series expansion of mixed parity in photon energy to describe the even-parity index; and use of an incorrect absorption energy in the Li-Sellmeier dispersion formula. Recommendations for IR index values for pure silicon will be discussed. Supported in part by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Nuclear Physics under contract DE-AC02-06CH11357.

R/S method for evaluation of pollutant time series in environmental quality assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bu Quanmin

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The significance of the fluctuation and randomness of the time series of each pollutant in environmental quality assessment is described for the first time in this paper. A comparative study was made of three different computing methods: the same starting point method, the striding averaging method, and the stagger phase averaging method. All of them can be used to calculate the Hurst index, which quantifies fluctuation and randomness. This study used real water quality data from Shazhu monitoring station on Taihu Lake in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province. The results show that, of the three methods, the stagger phase averaging method is best for calculating the Hurst index of a pollutant time series from the perspective of statistical regularity.

Gulf of Mexico IFR Aeronautical Chart Index - Aeronautical Information Services Digital Products

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Transportation — The IFR Enroute Aeronautical Chart series is designed to meet the needs of users who require a digital version chart. This is the visual index to the charts for the...

Evaluation of a post-analysis method for cumulative dose distribution in stereotactic body radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imae, Toshikazu; Takenaka, Shigeharu; Saotome, Naoya

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate a post-analysis method for cumulative dose distribution in stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) using volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). VMAT is capable of acquiring respiratory signals derived from projection images and machine parameters based on machine logs during VMAT delivery. Dose distributions were reconstructed from the respiratory signals and machine parameters in the condition where respiratory signals were without division, divided into 4 and 10 phases. The dose distribution of each respiratory phase was calculated on the planned four-dimensional CT (4DCT). Summation of the dose distributions was carried out using deformable image registration (DIR), and cumulative dose distributions were compared with those of the corresponding plans. Without division, dose differences between cumulative distribution and plan were not significant. In the condition Where respiratory signals were divided, dose differences were observed over dose in cranial region and under dose in caudal region of planning target volume (PTV). Differences between 4 and 10 phases were not significant. The present method Was feasible for evaluating cumulative dose distribution in VMAT-SBRT using 4DCT and DIR. (author)

Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Taniyama, Yukari; Katanoda, Kota; Charvat, Hadrien; Hori, Megumi; Ohno, Yuko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2017-11-01

To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category. Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method. The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively. Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Multi-scale approach to Euro-Atlantic climatic cycles based on phenological time series, air temperatures and circulation indexes.

Science.gov (United States)

Mariani, Luigi; Zavatti, Franco

2017-09-01

The spectral periods in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were analyzed and has been verified how they imprint a time series of European temperature anomalies (ETA), two European temperature time series and some phenological series (dates of cherry flowering and grapevine harvest). Such work had as reference scenario the linear causal chain MCTP (Macroscale Circulation→Temperature→Phenology of crops) that links oceanic and atmospheric circulation to surface air temperature which in its turn determines the earliness of appearance of phenological phases of plants. Results show that in the three segments of the MCTP causal chain are present cycles with the following central period in years (the % of the 12 analyzed time series interested by these cycles are in brackets): 65 (58%), 24 (58%), 20.5 (58%), 13.5 (50%), 11.5 (58%), 7.7 (75%), 5.5 (58%), 4.1 (58%), 3 (50%), 2.4 (67%). A comparison with short term spectral peaks of the four El Niño regions (nino1+2, nino3, nino3.4 and nino4) show that 10 of the 12 series are imprinted by periods around 2.3-2.4yr while 50-58% of the series are imprinted by El Niño periods of 4-4.2, 3.8-3.9, 3-3.1years. The analysis highlights the links among physical and biological variables of the climate system at scales that range from macro to microscale whose knowledge is crucial to reach a suitable understanding of the ecosystem behavior. The spectral analysis was also applied to a time series of spring - summer precipitation in order to evaluate the presence of peaks common with other 12 selected series with result substantially negative which brings us to rule out the existence of a linear causal chain MCPP (Macroscale Circulation→Precipitation→Phenology). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive time-series modeling using artificial neural networks for Linac beam symmetry: an empirical study.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qiongge; Chan, Maria F

2017-01-01

Over half of cancer patients receive radiotherapy (RT) as partial or full cancer treatment. Daily quality assurance (QA) of RT in cancer treatment closely monitors the performance of the medical linear accelerator (Linac) and is critical for continuous improvement of patient safety and quality of care. Cumulative longitudinal QA measurements are valuable for understanding the behavior of the Linac and allow physicists to identify trends in the output and take preventive actions. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time-series prediction modeling techniques were both applied to 5-year daily Linac QA data. Verification tests and other evaluations were then performed for all models. Preliminary results showed that ANN time-series predictive modeling has more advantages over ARMA techniques for accurate and effective applicability in the dosimetry and QA field. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Identification of the social and cognitive processes underlying human cumulative culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Dean, L G; Kendal, R L; Schapiro, S J; Thierry, B; Laland, K N

2012-03-02

The remarkable ecological and demographic success of humanity is largely attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture, with knowledge and technology accumulating over time, yet the social and cognitive capabilities that have enabled cumulative culture remain unclear. In a comparative study of sequential problem solving, we provided groups of capuchin monkeys, chimpanzees, and children with an experimental puzzlebox that could be solved in three stages to retrieve rewards of increasing desirability. The success of the children, but not of the chimpanzees or capuchins, in reaching higher-level solutions was strongly associated with a package of sociocognitive processes-including teaching through verbal instruction, imitation, and prosociality-that were observed only in the children and covaried with performance.

Cumulative hierarchies and computability over universes of sets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Domenico Cantone

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Various metamathematical investigations, beginning with Fraenkel’s historical proof of the independence of the axiom of choice, called for suitable definitions of hierarchical universes of sets. This led to the discovery of such important cumulative structures as the one singled out by von Neumann (generally taken as the universe of all sets and Godel’s universe of the so-called constructibles. Variants of those are exploited occasionally in studies concerning the foundations of analysis (according to Abraham Robinson’s approach, or concerning non-well-founded sets. We hence offer a systematic presentation of these many structures, partly motivated by their relevance and pervasiveness in mathematics. As we report, numerous properties of hierarchy-related notions such as rank, have been verified with the assistance of the ÆtnaNova proof-checker.Through SETL and Maple implementations of procedures which effectively handle the Ackermann’s hereditarily finite sets, we illustrate a particularly significant case among those in which the entities which form a universe of sets can be algorithmically constructed and manipulated; hereby, the fruitful bearing on pure mathematics of cumulative set hierarchies ramifies into the realms of theoretical computer science and algorithmics.

Cumulative childhood risk and adult functioning in abused and neglected children grown up.

Science.gov (United States)

Horan, Jacqueline M; Widom, Cathy Spatz

2015-08-01

This paper examines the relationship between childhood exposure to cumulative risk and three indicators of psychosocial adjustment in adulthood (educational attainment, mental health, and criminal behavior) and tests three different models (linear, quadratic, and interaction). Data were collected over several time points from individuals who were part of a prospective cohort design study that matched children with documented cases of abuse and/or neglect with children without such histories and followed them into adulthood. Hierarchical multiple regressions compared linear and quadratic models and then examined potential moderating effects of child abuse/neglect and gender. Exposure to a greater number of childhood risk factors was significantly related to fewer years of education, more anxiety and depression symptomatology, and more criminal arrests in adulthood. The relationship between cumulative risk and years of education demonstrated a curvilinear pattern, whereas the relationship between cumulative risk and both mental health and criminal arrests was linear. Child abuse/neglect did not moderate these relationships, although there were direct effects for both child abuse/neglect and gender on criminal arrests, with more arrests for abused/neglected individuals than controls and more for males than females. Gender interacted with cumulative risk to impact educational attainment and criminal behavior, suggesting that interventions may be more effective if tailored differently for males and females. Interventions may need to be multifaceted and designed to address these different domains of functioning.

The cumulative ash curve: a best tool to evaluate complete mill performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Sakhare, Suresh D; Inamdar, Aashitosh A

2014-04-01

Slick test is carried out by a flour miller to qualitatively segregate the flour from different streams in a roller flour mill. This test is done manually by pressing flour samples on tray using thin bladed paddle (the slick) and inspecting color or dress of the sample. However, the test is subjective and totally depends on human judgment. Cumulative ash curve relates to cumulative flour ash content and cumulative flour yield, which could help a flour miller to be more precise while selecting flour streams for different needs. In this study, cleaning and conditioning of wheat was carried out in the pilot plant of International School of Milling Technology (ISMT). Further, roller flour milling of wheat was done. Flour from different streams (four breaks, five reductions) was collected. Each flour stream was analyzed for ash content using standard AACC methods. The analytical values of ash content were used to plot the cumulative ash curve. It was found that ash content increased in the break passages from first to last break, with exception of first break (ash content 0.71%). An increase in percentage of ash was observed in the reduction passages (C1 to C5), however, C3 ash (0.76%) was slightly higher than that of C4 (0.65%). Higher yield of flour with minimum ash content was obtained from the front reduction passages C1 and C2; whereas, the break passages and the tail end reduction passages produce less flour with higher ash content.

TH-AB-207A-04: Assessment of Patients’ Cumulative Effective Dose From CT Examinations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bostani, M; Cagnon, C; Sepahdari, A; Beckett, K; Oshiro, T; McNitt-Gray, M [UCLA School of Medicine, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: The Joint Commission requires institutions to consider patient’s age and recent imaging exams when deciding on the most appropriate type of imaging exam. Additionally, knowing patient’s imaging history can help prevent duplicate scans. Radiation dose management software affords new opportunities to identify and utilize patients with high cumulative doses as one proxy for subsequent review of imaging history and opportunities in avoiding redundant exams. Methods: Using dose management software (Radimetrics, Bayer Healthcare) a total of 72073 CT examinations performed from Jan 2015 to Jan 2016 were examined to categorize patients with a cumulative effective dose of 100 mSv and above. This threshold was selected based on epidemiological studies on populations exposed to radiation, which demonstrate a statistical increase of cancer risk at doses above 100 mSv. Histories of patients with highest cumulative dose and highest number of exams were further investigated by a Radiologist for appropriateness of recurrent studies and potential opportunities for reduction. Results: Out of 34762 patients, 927 (2.7%) were identified with a cumulative dose of 100 mSv and above. The highest cumulative dose (842 mSv) belonged to an oncology patient who underwent 2 diagnostic exams and 9 interventional ablative CT guided procedures. The patient with highest number of exams (56 counts) and cumulative dose of 170 mSv was a 17 year old trauma patient. An imaging history review of these two patients did not suggest any superfluous scans. Conclusion: Our limited pilot study suggests that recurrent CT exams for patients with oncologic or severe trauma history may be warranted and appropriate. As a result, for future studies we will be focusing on high dose patient cohorts not associated with oncology or severe trauma. Additionally, the review process itself has suggested areas for potential improvement in patient care, including improved documentation and Radiologist involvement

TH-AB-207A-04: Assessment of Patients’ Cumulative Effective Dose From CT Examinations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bostani, M; Cagnon, C; Sepahdari, A; Beckett, K; Oshiro, T; McNitt-Gray, M

2016-01-01

Purpose: The Joint Commission requires institutions to consider patient’s age and recent imaging exams when deciding on the most appropriate type of imaging exam. Additionally, knowing patient’s imaging history can help prevent duplicate scans. Radiation dose management software affords new opportunities to identify and utilize patients with high cumulative doses as one proxy for subsequent review of imaging history and opportunities in avoiding redundant exams. Methods: Using dose management software (Radimetrics, Bayer Healthcare) a total of 72073 CT examinations performed from Jan 2015 to Jan 2016 were examined to categorize patients with a cumulative effective dose of 100 mSv and above. This threshold was selected based on epidemiological studies on populations exposed to radiation, which demonstrate a statistical increase of cancer risk at doses above 100 mSv. Histories of patients with highest cumulative dose and highest number of exams were further investigated by a Radiologist for appropriateness of recurrent studies and potential opportunities for reduction. Results: Out of 34762 patients, 927 (2.7%) were identified with a cumulative dose of 100 mSv and above. The highest cumulative dose (842 mSv) belonged to an oncology patient who underwent 2 diagnostic exams and 9 interventional ablative CT guided procedures. The patient with highest number of exams (56 counts) and cumulative dose of 170 mSv was a 17 year old trauma patient. An imaging history review of these two patients did not suggest any superfluous scans. Conclusion: Our limited pilot study suggests that recurrent CT exams for patients with oncologic or severe trauma history may be warranted and appropriate. As a result, for future studies we will be focusing on high dose patient cohorts not associated with oncology or severe trauma. Additionally, the review process itself has suggested areas for potential improvement in patient care, including improved documentation and Radiologist involvement

Before Cumulative Culture : The Evolutionary Origins of Overimitation and Shared Intentionality.

Science.gov (United States)

Shipton, Ceri; Nielsen, Mark

2015-09-01

In the 7 million years or so since humans shared a common ancestor with chimpanzees we have colonized more of the planet's terrestrial habitat than any other mammalian species and come to account for more biomass than all other terrestrial vertebrates combined. Chimpanzees, in contrast to and under pressure from ourselves, have veered toward extinction. There are multiple reasons for the stark evolutionary trajectories humans and chimpanzees have taken. Recent theoretical and empirical interest has focused on the emergence of cumulative culture whereby technological innovations are progressively incorporated into a population's stock of skills and knowledge, generating ever more sophisticated repertoires. Here we look at the role of high-fidelity imitation and intention-reading in the establishment of cumulative culture. By focusing on the lithic record, we aim to identify when in our evolutionary history these skills became part of our ancestors' behavioral repertoire. We argue that evidence of cooperative construction in stone tool manufacture, along with speculation regarding changes to the mirror neurone system, hint at the foundations of overimitation and shared intentionality around 2 million years ago. However, these are not the only ingredients of cumulative culture, which is why we do not see convincing evidence for it until slightly more than a million years later.

Refractive index as materials property. Der Brechungsindex als Stoffeigenschaft

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zilian, U. (Ciba-Geigy AG, Basel (Switzerland))

1991-10-01

The investigation of the relationship between refractive index (n) and molecular structure of a series of gases, liquids, and solids led to the conclusion that the refractive index of a substance is an independent molecular property. Light is refracted by two types of electron pairs. a) Bonding Electron Pairs (BEP) and b) Response Electron Pairs (REP). - Paraffins exhibit only BEPs which can easily be counted. REP is a new term we introduce to quantify the effects of several nonbonding electrons. The inert gases, for example, refract solely with REPs. They can be determined, and the most important ones are herein tabulated or delineated in the text. For compounds with known formular weight (M) and density (d), the refractive index can be simply calculated using the following formula. (orig.).

Not so Black and White: environmental justice and cumulative impact assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krieg, Eric J.; Faber, Daniel R.

2004-01-01

A growing number of scientific studies in recent years have investigated disparate exposure to ecological hazards in American society. Working from an environmental justice perspective, this body of research consistently reveals that poor communities of color are most likely to bear a disproportionate burden of negative externalities. These studies utilize a wide range of research methodologies, including various indicators of ecological hazards (e.g., proximity to waste sites, industrial emissions, ambient air quality), but few, if any, utilize composite measures to approximate cumulative environmental impact. Consequently, the environmental justice (EJ) literature is characterized by a failure to effectively measure overall impact from an extensive range of ecological hazards. Limitations on available data make this a serious problem for present and future studies. We argue that cumulative measures of environmental impact can play an important role in furthering our understanding of environmental injustices in the United States. In this study of Massachusetts, we develop and implement such a cumulative measure of negative environmental impacts. By controlling for the density and severity of ecological hazardous sites and facilities within every community in the state, we demonstrate that exposure patterns take a generally linear distribution when analyzed by race and class. So, while our results reaffirm previous findings that low-income communities and communities of color bear significantly greater ecological burdens than predominantly White and more affluent communities, our findings also suggest that environmental injustices exist on a remarkably consistent continuum for nearly all communities. In other words, as the minority population and lower-income composition of a community increases, correspondingly, so does cumulative exposure to environmental hazards. In this respect, communities which are more racially mixed and of moderate income status that are

Zlib: A numerical library for optimal design of truncated power series algebra and map parameterization routines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yan, Y.T.

1996-11-01

A brief review of the Zlib development is given. Emphasized is the Zlib nerve system which uses the One-Step Index Pointers (OSIPs) for efficient computation and flexible use of the Truncated Power Series Algebra (TPSA). Also emphasized is the treatment of parameterized maps with an object-oriented language (e.g. C++). A parameterized map can be a Vector Power Series (Vps) or a Lie generator represented by an exponent of a Truncated Power Series (Tps) of which each coefficient is an object of truncated power series

Acute Stress Symptoms in Seriously Injured Patients: Precipitating Versus Cumulative Trauma and the Contribution of Peritraumatic Distress.

Science.gov (United States)

Briere, John; Dias, Colin P; Semple, Randye J; Scott, Catherine; Bigras, Noémie; Godbout, Natacha

2017-08-01

The relationship between type of trauma exposure, cumulative trauma, peritraumatic distress, and subsequent acute stress disorder (ASD) symptoms was examined prospectively in 96 individuals presenting with acute medical injuries to a Level 1 emergency/trauma department. Common precipitating traumas included motor vehicle-related events, stabbings, shootings, and physical assaults. At 2 to 3 weeks follow-up, 22.9% of participants had developed ASD. Univariate analysis revealed no relationship between type of precipitating trauma and ASD symptoms, whereas robust path analysis indicated direct effects of gender, lifetime cumulative trauma exposure, and peritraumatic distress. Peritraumatic distress did not mediate the association between cumulative trauma and symptoms, but did mediate the association between gender and symptomatology. These results, which account for 23.1% of the variance in ASD symptoms, suggest that ASD may be more due to cumulative trauma exposure than the nature of the precipitating trauma, but that cumulative trauma does not exert its primary effect by increasing peritraumatic distress to the most recent trauma. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

Prediction of monthly average global solar radiation based on statistical distribution of clearness index

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayodele, T.R.; Ogunjuyigbe, A.S.O.

2015-01-01

In this paper, probability distribution of clearness index is proposed for the prediction of global solar radiation. First, the clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation, then, the parameters of the appropriate distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. The global solar radiation is thereafter predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation of the cumulative distribution function. To validate the proposed method, eight years global solar radiation data (2000–2007) of Ibadan, Nigeria are used to determine the parameters of appropriate probability distribution for clearness index. The calculated parameters are then used to predict the future monthly average global solar radiation for the following year (2008). The predicted values are compared with the measured values using four statistical tests: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and the coefficient of determination (R"2). The proposed method is also compared to the existing regression models. The results show that logistic distribution provides the best fit for clearness index of Ibadan and the proposed method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation with overall RMSE of 0.383 MJ/m"2/day, MAE of 0.295 MJ/m"2/day, MAPE of 2% and R"2 of 0.967. - Highlights: • Distribution of clearnes index is proposed for prediction of global solar radiation. • The clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation. • The parameters of distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. • Solar radiation is predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation. • The method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation.

Pulse frequency and soil-litter mixing alter the control of cumulative precipitation over litter decomposition.

Science.gov (United States)

Joly, François-Xavier; Kurupas, Kelsey L; Throop, Heather L

2017-09-01

Macroclimate has traditionally been considered the predominant driver of litter decomposition. However, in drylands, cumulative monthly or annual precipitation typically fails to predict decomposition. In these systems, the windows of opportunity for decomposer activity may rather depend on the precipitation frequency and local factors affecting litter desiccation, such as soil-litter mixing. We used a full-factorial microcosm experiment to disentangle the relative importance of cumulative precipitation, pulse frequency, and soil-litter mixing on litter decomposition. Decomposition, measured as litter carbon loss, saturated with increasing cumulative precipitation when pulses were large and infrequent, suggesting that litter moisture no longer increased and/or microbial activity was no longer limited by water availability above a certain pulse size. More frequent precipitation pulses led to increased decomposition at high levels of cumulative precipitation. Soil-litter mixing consistently increased decomposition, with greatest relative increase (+194%) under the driest conditions. Collectively, our results highlight the need to consider precipitation at finer temporal scale and incorporate soil-litter mixing as key driver of decomposition in drylands. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Innovation and social transmission in experimental micro-societies: exploring the scope of cumulative culture in young children.

Science.gov (United States)

McGuigan, Nicola; Burdett, Emily; Burgess, Vanessa; Dean, Lewis; Lucas, Amanda; Vale, Gillian; Whiten, Andrew

2017-12-05

The experimental study of cumulative culture and the innovations essential to it is a young science, with child studies so rare that the scope of cumulative cultural capacities in childhood remains largely unknown. Here we report a new experimental approach to the inherent complexity of these phenomena. Groups of 3-4-year-old children were presented with an elaborate array of challenges affording the potential cumulative development of a variety of techniques to gain increasingly attractive rewards. In contrast to a prior study, we found evidence for elementary forms of cumulative cultural progress, with inventions of solutions at lower levels spreading to become shared innovations, and some children then building on these to create more advanced but more rewarding innovations. This contrasted with markedly more constrained progress when children worked only by themselves, or if groups faced only the highest-level challenges from the start. Further experiments that introduced higher-level inventions via the inclusion of older children, or that created ecological change, with the easiest habitual solutions no longer possible, encouraged higher levels of cumulative innovation. Our results show children are not merely 'cultural sponges', but when acting in groups, display the beginnings of cycles of innovation and observational learning that sustain cumulative progress in problem solving.This article is part of the themed issue 'Process and pattern in innovations from cells to societies'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Interpolation techniques used for data quality control and calculation of technical series: an example of a Central European daily time series

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Štěpánek, P.; Zahradníček, P.; Huth, Radan

2011-01-01

Roč. 115, 1-2 (2011), s. 87-98 ISSN 0324-6329 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/08/1619 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : data quality control * filling missing values * interpolation techniques * climatological time series Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.364, year: 2011 http://www.met.hu/en/ismeret-tar/kiadvanyok/idojaras/index.php?id=34

ALBEDO PATTERN RECOGNITION AND TIME-SERIES ANALYSES IN MALAYSIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Salleh

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Pattern recognition and time-series analyses will enable one to evaluate and generate predictions of specific phenomena. The albedo pattern and time-series analyses are very much useful especially in relation to climate condition monitoring. This study is conducted to seek for Malaysia albedo pattern changes. The pattern recognition and changes will be useful for variety of environmental and climate monitoring researches such as carbon budgeting and aerosol mapping. The 10 years (2000–2009 MODIS satellite images were used for the analyses and interpretation. These images were being processed using ERDAS Imagine remote sensing software, ArcGIS 9.3, the 6S code for atmospherical calibration and several MODIS tools (MRT, HDF2GIS, Albedo tools. There are several methods for time-series analyses were explored, this paper demonstrates trends and seasonal time-series analyses using converted HDF format MODIS MCD43A3 albedo land product. The results revealed significance changes of albedo percentages over the past 10 years and the pattern with regards to Malaysia's nebulosity index (NI and aerosol optical depth (AOD. There is noticeable trend can be identified with regards to its maximum and minimum value of the albedo. The rise and fall of the line graph show a similar trend with regards to its daily observation. The different can be identified in term of the value or percentage of rises and falls of albedo. Thus, it can be concludes that the temporal behavior of land surface albedo in Malaysia have a uniform behaviours and effects with regards to the local monsoons. However, although the average albedo shows linear trend with nebulosity index, the pattern changes of albedo with respects to the nebulosity index indicates that there are external factors that implicates the albedo values, as the sky conditions and its diffusion plotted does not have uniform trend over the years, especially when the trend of 5 years interval is examined, 2000 shows high

Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Müller, Anne Kirstine; Nielsen, Elsa

2008-01-01

A cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz in combination has been carried out using an Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IPRA) model. In the model, variability in both exposure and sensitivity between individuals were combined...

Weak self-directed learning skills hamper performance in cumulative assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tio, Rene A.; Stegmann, Mariken E.; Koerts, Janke; van Os, Titus W. D. P.; Cohen-Schotanus, Janke

2016-01-01

Background: Self-regulated learning is an important determinant of academic performance. Previous research has shown that cumulative assessment encourages students to work harder and improve their results. However, not all students seem to respond as intended. We investigated the influence of

Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Müller, A.K.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; van der Voet, H.; Nielsen, E.; Ladefoged, O.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three

Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Muller, A.K.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; Voet, van der H.; Nielsen, E.; Ladefoged, O.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three

An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory for Decision under Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wakker, P.P.; Chateauneuf, A.

1999-01-01

Cumulative prospect theory was introduced by Tversky and Kahneman so as to combine the empirical realism of their original prospect theory with the theoretical advantages of Quiggin's rank-dependent utility. Preference axiomatizations were provided in several papers. All those axiomatizations,

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Yellow-headed blackbird

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeder, Richard L.

1982-01-01

Habitat preferences of the yellow-headed blackbird (Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus) are described in this publication. It is one of a series of Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models and was developed through an analysis of available infomration on the species-habitat requirements of the species. Habitat use information is presented in a review of the literature, followed by the development of an HSI model, designed for use in impact assessment and habitat management activities.

Modeling Non-Gaussian Time Series with Nonparametric Bayesian Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Zhiguang; MacEachern, Steven; Xu, Xinyi

2015-02-01

We present a class of Bayesian copula models whose major components are the marginal (limiting) distribution of a stationary time series and the internal dynamics of the series. We argue that these are the two features with which an analyst is typically most familiar, and hence that these are natural components with which to work. For the marginal distribution, we use a nonparametric Bayesian prior distribution along with a cdf-inverse cdf transformation to obtain large support. For the internal dynamics, we rely on the traditionally successful techniques of normal-theory time series. Coupling the two components gives us a family of (Gaussian) copula transformed autoregressive models. The models provide coherent adjustments of time scales and are compatible with many extensions, including changes in volatility of the series. We describe basic properties of the models, show their ability to recover non-Gaussian marginal distributions, and use a GARCH modification of the basic model to analyze stock index return series. The models are found to provide better fit and improved short-range and long-range predictions than Gaussian competitors. The models are extensible to a large variety of fields, including continuous time models, spatial models, models for multiple series, models driven by external covariate streams, and non-stationary models.

On interference of cumulative proton production mechanisms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braun, M.A.; Vechernin, V.V.

1993-01-01

The dynamical picture of the cumulative proton production in hA-collisions by means of diagram analysis with NN interaction described by a non-relativistic NN potential is considered. The contributions of the various mechanisms (spectator, direct and rescattering) for backward hemisphere proton production within the framework of this common approach is calculated. The emphasis is on the comparison of the relative contributions of these mechanisms for various angles, taking into account the interference of these contributions. Comparison with experimental data is also presented. (author)

Is cumulated pyrethroid exposure associated with prediabetes?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Martin Rune; Jørs, Erik; Lander, Flemming

2014-01-01

was to investigate an association between exposure to pyrethroids and abnormal glucose regulation (prediabetes or diabetes). A cross-sectional study was performed among 116 pesticide sprayers from public vector control programs in Bolivia and 92 nonexposed controls. Pesticide exposure (duration, intensity...... pyrethroids, a significant positive trend was observed between cumulative pesticide exposure (total number of hours sprayed) and adjusted OR of abnormal glucose regulation, with OR 14.7 [0.9-235] in the third exposure quintile. The study found a severely increased prevalence of prediabetes among Bolivian...

Relationship of the change in implied volatility with the underlying equity index return in Thailand

OpenAIRE

Thakolsri, Supachock; Sethapramote, Yuthana; Jiranyakul, Komain

2016-01-01

In this study, we examine the relationship between the change in implied volatility index and the underlying stock index return in the Thai stock market. The data used are daily data during November 2010 to December 2013. The regression analysis is performed on stationary series. The empirical results reveal that there is evidence of a significantly negative and asymmetric relationship between the underlying stock index return and the change in implied volatility. The finding in this study gi...

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Myles R.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.; Reisinger, Andy; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Forster, Piers M.

2016-08-01

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of `cumulative climate pollutants' such as carbon dioxide versus `short-lived climate pollutants' (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20-40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century, which may be necessary to limit warming to ``well below 2 °C'' (ref. ). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

Calculus of the Resources Cumulative Task Using Different Technics and Software

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ilie Margareta

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The present paper main objective is to reveals how one can use two software application tools: Microsoft Project 2013 and Oracle Primavera P6 Professional for the project planning management, especially for industrial projects and for the calculus and graphical representation of resources cumulative task. The present planning consider four small processes with a total of 38 activities and seven resources. The two software are used for leveling the project’s resources and for giving the necessary information about the evolutions of cumulative tasks and how its values influences the cost of project. In conclusions comparison between the values and graphical representation presented by the two software shows differences of exemplifications, most of them from the graphical point of view.

Analysis of cumulative exergy losses in the chains of technological processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szargut, J.

1989-01-01

This paper reports on cumulative exergy consumption (CExC) which characterizes the chain of technological processes leading from natural resources to the final product under consideration. The difference of CExC and exergy of material or energy carrier expresses the cumulative exergy loss (CExL) in the mentioned technological chain. Two apportionment methods of CExL have been proposed. Partial exergy losses appear in particular links of the technological chain and characterize the influence of irreversibility of these links. Constituent exergy losses express the influence of thermodynamic imperfection of constituent technological chains leading to the final link of the total technological chain. Analysis of the partial and constituent exergy losses informs about the possibilities of improvement of the technological chains

Urbanization and Income Inequality in Post-Reform China: A Causal Analysis Based on Time Series Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Guo; Glasmeier, Amy K; Zhang, Min; Shao, Yang

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the potential causal relationship(s) between China's urbanization and income inequality since the start of the economic reform. Based on the economic theory of urbanization and income distribution, we analyze the annual time series of China's urbanization rate and Gini index from 1978 to 2014. The results show that urbanization has an immediate alleviating effect on income inequality, as indicated by the negative relationship between the two time series at the same year (lag = 0). However, urbanization also seems to have a lagged aggravating effect on income inequality, as indicated by positive relationship between urbanization and the Gini index series at lag 1. Although the link between urbanization and income inequality is not surprising, the lagged aggravating effect of urbanization on the Gini index challenges the popular belief that urbanization in post-reform China generally helps reduce income inequality. At deeper levels, our results suggest an urgent need to focus on the social dimension of urbanization as China transitions to the next stage of modernization. Comprehensive social reforms must be prioritized to avoid a long-term economic dichotomy and permanent social segregation.

Urbanization and Income Inequality in Post-Reform China: A Causal Analysis Based on Time Series Data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guo Chen

Full Text Available This paper investigates the potential causal relationship(s between China's urbanization and income inequality since the start of the economic reform. Based on the economic theory of urbanization and income distribution, we analyze the annual time series of China's urbanization rate and Gini index from 1978 to 2014. The results show that urbanization has an immediate alleviating effect on income inequality, as indicated by the negative relationship between the two time series at the same year (lag = 0. However, urbanization also seems to have a lagged aggravating effect on income inequality, as indicated by positive relationship between urbanization and the Gini index series at lag 1. Although the link between urbanization and income inequality is not surprising, the lagged aggravating effect of urbanization on the Gini index challenges the popular belief that urbanization in post-reform China generally helps reduce income inequality. At deeper levels, our results suggest an urgent need to focus on the social dimension of urbanization as China transitions to the next stage of modernization. Comprehensive social reforms must be prioritized to avoid a long-term economic dichotomy and permanent social segregation.

Mapping Cropland and Crop-type Distribution Using Time Series MODIS Data

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, D.; Chen, Y.; Moran, E. F.; Batistella, M.; Luo, L.; Pokhrel, Y.; Deb, K.

2016-12-01

Mapping regional and global cropland distribution has attracted great attention in the past decade, but the separation of crop types is challenging due to the spectral confusion and cloud cover problems during the growing season in Brazil. The objective of this study is to develop a new approach to identify crop types (including soybean, cotton, maize) and planting patterns (soybean-maize, soybean-cotton, and single crop) in Mato Grosso, Goias and Tocantins States, Brazil. The time series moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (MOD13Q1) in 2015/2016 were used in this research and field survey data were collected in May 2016. The major steps include: (1) reconstruct time series NDVI data contaminated by noise and clouds using the temporal interpolation algorithm; (2) identify the best periods and develop temporal indices and phenology parameters to distinguish cropland from other land cover types based on time series NDVI data; (3) develop a crop temporal difference index (CTDI) to extract crop types and patterns using time series NDVI data. This research shows that (1) the cropland occupied approximately 16.85% of total land in these three states; (2) soybean-maize and soybean-cotton were two major crop patterns which occupied 54.80% and 19.30% of total cropland area. This research indicates that the proposed approach is promising for accurately and rapidly mapping cropland and crop-type distribution in these three states of Brazil.

Multiresolution analysis of Bursa Malaysia KLCI time series

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Dghais, Amel Abdoullah Ahmed

2017-05-01

In general, a time series is simply a sequence of numbers collected at regular intervals over a period. Financial time series data processing is concerned with the theory and practice of processing asset price over time, such as currency, commodity data, and stock market data. The primary aim of this study is to understand the fundamental characteristics of selected financial time series by using the time as well as the frequency domain analysis. After that prediction can be executed for the desired system for in sample forecasting. In this study, multiresolution analysis which the assist of discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) will be used to pinpoint special characteristics of Bursa Malaysia KLCI (Kuala Lumpur Composite Index) daily closing prices and return values. In addition, further case study discussions include the modeling of Bursa Malaysia KLCI using linear ARIMA with wavelets to address how multiresolution approach improves fitting and forecasting results.

Cumulative Index to Chemicals and to Common and Scientific Names of Species Listed in Contaminant Hazard Reviews 1 Through 34.

Science.gov (United States)

1999-03-01

Wildlife Research Center- synthesizes ecotoxicological data for selected environmental contaminants, with emphasis on hazards to native species of flora...series-—sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey Patuxent Wildlife Research Center—synthesizes ecotoxicological data for selected environmental...7 37. Macronectes giganteus: 32 16; 33 26; 34 27. Macrophytes , aquatic, Cabomba spp., Chara sp., Elodea, Lemna, Myriophyllum, Polygonum sp

Science and Societal Partnerships to Address Cumulative Impacts

OpenAIRE

Lundquist, Carolyn J.; Fisher, Karen T.; Le Heron, Richard; Lewis, Nick I.; Ellis, Joanne I.; Hewitt, Judi E.; Greenaway, Alison J.; Cartner, Katie J.; Burgess-Jones, Tracey C.; Schiel, David R.; Thrush, Simon F.

2016-01-01

Funding and priorities for ocean research are not separate from the underlying sociological, economic, and political landscapes that determine values attributed to ecological systems. Here we present a variation on science prioritization exercises, focussing on inter-disciplinary research questions with the objective of shifting broad scale management practices to better address cumulative impacts and multiple users. Marine scientists in New Zealand from a broad range of scientific and social...

The Contribution of Project Environmental Assessment to Assessing and Managing Cumulative Effects: Individually and Collectively Insignificant?

Science.gov (United States)

Noble, Bram; Liu, Jialang; Hackett, Paul

2017-04-01

This paper explores the opportunities and constraints to project-based environmental assessment as a means to support the assessment and management of cumulative environmental effects. A case study of the hydroelectric sector is used to determine whether sufficient information is available over time through project-by-project assessments to support an adequate understanding of cumulative change. Results show inconsistency from one project to the next in terms of the components and indicators assessed, limited transfer of baseline information between project assessments over time, and the same issues and concerns being raised by review panels-even though the projects reviewed are operating in the same watershed and operated by the same proponent. Project environmental assessments must be managed, and coordinated, as part of a larger system of impact assessment, if project-by-project assessments are to provide a meaningful forum for learning and understanding cumulative change. The paper concludes with recommendations for improved project-based assessment practice in support of cumulative effects assessment and management.

Comparison of cumulative dissipated energy between the Infiniti and Centurion phacoemulsification systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen M

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Ming Chen,1 Erik Anderson,2 Geoffrey Hill,3 John J Chen,4 Thomas Patrianakos2 1Department of Surgery, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, 2Department of Ophthalmology, John H Stroger, Jr Hospital of Cook County, Chicago, IL, 3Department of Ophthalmology, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, 4Biostatistics Core, John A Burns School of Medicine, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, USA Purpose: To compare cumulative dissipated energy between two phacoemulsification machines. Setting: An ambulatory surgical center, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA. Design: Retrospective chart review. Methods: A total of 2,077 consecutive cases of cataract extraction by phacoemulsification performed by five surgeons from November 2012 to November 2014 were included in the study; 1,021 consecutive cases were performed using the Infiniti Vision System, followed by 1,056 consecutive cases performed using the Centurion Vision System. Results: The Centurion phacoemulsification system required less energy to remove a cataractous lens with an adjusted average energy reduction of 38% (5.09 percent-seconds (P<0.001 across all surgeons in comparison to the Infiniti phacoemulsification system. The reduction in cumulative dissipated energy was statistically significant for each surgeon, with a range of 29%–45% (2.25–12.54 percent-seconds (P=0.005–<0.001. Cumulative dissipated energy for both the Infiniti and Centurion systems varied directly with patient age, increasing an average of 2.38 percent-seconds/10 years. Conclusion: The Centurion phacoemulsification system required less energy to remove a cataractous lens in comparison to the Infiniti phacoemulsification system. Keywords: phacoemulsification, cumulative dissipated energy, Centurion Vision System, Infiniti Vision System

Current and cumulative night shift work and subclinical atherosclerosis: results of the Gutenberg Health Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Jankowiak, S; Backé, E; Liebers, F; Schulz, A; Hegewald, J; Garthus-Niegel, S; Nübling, M; Blankenberg, S; Pfeiffer, N; Lackner, K J; Beutel, M; Blettner, M; Münzel, T; Wild, P S; Seidler, A; Letzel, S; Latza, U

2016-11-01

The study examines the association between exposure to current and cumulative night shift work and subclinical parameters of atherosclerosis. Participants of a population-based cohort study (the Gutenberg Health Study, N = 15,010) aged 35-64 years were examined at baseline (2007-2012). Investigations included measurements of arterial stiffness, vascular function [reactive hyperaemia (RH) index], and intima media thickness (IMT). Also, a complete job history (including up to 15 periods), occupational exposures, a variety of lifestyle, and dispositional variables were enquired. Night shift work was performed by 1071 out of 8065 currently employed individuals. The strongest association after adjustment for age, sex, job complexity level, being a manager, overtime work, and noise appeared for more than 660 night shifts within the last 10 years and a significantly increased arterial stiffness of 0.33 m/s. This reflects a 4 % flow velocity increase for individuals with more than 660 night shifts compared to non-night workers. Regarding the entire professional life, night shift workers showed a significantly decreased vascular function by -0.054 RH index points by using the same adjustment. IMT values did not differ statistically from non-night workers. Lifestyle and dispositional factors showed an influence on all used subclinical atherosclerosis parameters. The cross-sectional results demonstrate an association between night work and detrimental changes in the atherosclerotic process. The association is more pronounced with more years in night shift and is partly explained by lifestyle and dispositional factors. Longitudinal analyses are necessary to confirm the results.

Daily air quality index forecasting with hybrid models: A case in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Suling; Lian, Xiuyuan; Liu, Haixia; Hu, Jianming; Wang, Yuanyuan; Che, Jinxing

2017-01-01

Air quality is closely related to quality of life. Air pollution forecasting plays a vital role in air pollution warnings and controlling. However, it is difficult to attain accurate forecasts for air pollution indexes because the original data are non-stationary and chaotic. The existing forecasting methods, such as multiple linear models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector regression (SVR), cannot fully capture the information from series of pollution indexes. Therefore, new effective techniques need to be proposed to forecast air pollution indexes. The main purpose of this research is to develop effective forecasting models for regional air quality indexes (AQI) to address the problems above and enhance forecasting accuracy. Therefore, two hybrid models (EMD-SVR-Hybrid and EMD-IMFs-Hybrid) are proposed to forecast AQI data. The main steps of the EMD-SVR-Hybrid model are as follows: the data preprocessing technique EMD (empirical mode decomposition) is utilized to sift the original AQI data to obtain one group of smoother IMFs (intrinsic mode functions) and a noise series, where the IMFs contain the important information (level, fluctuations and others) from the original AQI series. LS-SVR is applied to forecast the sum of the IMFs, and then, S-ARIMA (seasonal ARIMA) is employed to forecast the residual sequence of LS-SVR. In addition, EMD-IMFs-Hybrid first separately forecasts the IMFs via statistical models and sums the forecasting results of the IMFs as EMD-IMFs. Then, S-ARIMA is employed to forecast the residuals of EMD-IMFs. To certify the proposed hybrid model, AQI data from June 2014 to August 2015 collected from Xingtai in China are utilized as a test case to investigate the empirical research. In terms of some of the forecasting assessment measures, the AQI forecasting results of Xingtai show that the two proposed hybrid models are superior to ARIMA, SVR, GRNN, EMD-GRNN, Wavelet-GRNN and Wavelet-SVR. Therefore, the

On the mechanism of hadron cumulative production on nucleus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Efremov, A.V.

1976-01-01

A mechanism of cumulative production of hadrons on nucleus is proposed which is similar to that of high perpendicular hadron production. The cross section obtained describes the main qualitative features of such prosesses, e.g., initial energy dependence atomic number behaviour, dependence on the rest mass of the produced particle and its production angle

Cumulative impacts: current research and current opinions at PSW

Science.gov (United States)

R. M. Rice

1987-01-01

Consideration of cumulative watershed effects (CWEs) has both political and physical aspects. Regardless of the practical usefulness of present methods of dealing with CWEs, the legal requirement to address them remains. Management of federal land is regulated by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and the Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972. The...

Cumulative assessment: does it improve students’ knowledge acquisition and retention?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cecilio Fernandes, Dario; Nagtegaal, Manouk; Noordzij, Gera; Tio, Rene

2017-01-01

Introduction Assessment for learning means changing students’ behaviour regarding their learning. Cumulative assessment has been shown to increase students’ self-study time and spread their study time throughout a course. However, there was no difference regarding students’ knowledge at the end of

Cumulant expansions for measuring water exchange using diffusion MRI

Science.gov (United States)

Ning, Lipeng; Nilsson, Markus; Lasič, Samo; Westin, Carl-Fredrik; Rathi, Yogesh

2018-02-01

The rate of water exchange across cell membranes is a parameter of biological interest and can be measured by diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI). In this work, we investigate a stochastic model for the diffusion-and-exchange of water molecules. This model provides a general solution for the temporal evolution of dMRI signal using any type of gradient waveform, thereby generalizing the signal expressions for the Kärger model. Moreover, we also derive a general nth order cumulant expansion of the dMRI signal accounting for water exchange, which has not been explored in earlier studies. Based on this analytical expression, we compute the cumulant expansion for dMRI signals for the special case of single diffusion encoding (SDE) and double diffusion encoding (DDE) sequences. Our results provide a theoretical guideline on optimizing experimental parameters for SDE and DDE sequences, respectively. Moreover, we show that DDE signals are more sensitive to water exchange at short-time scale but provide less attenuation at long-time scale than SDE signals. Our theoretical analysis is also validated using Monte Carlo simulations on synthetic structures.

Development of a brief parent-report risk index for children following parental divorce.

Science.gov (United States)

Tein, Jenn-Yun; Sandler, Irwin N; Braver, Sanford L; Wolchik, Sharlene A

2013-12-01

This article reports on the development of a brief 15-item parent-report risk index (Child Risk Index for Divorced or Separated Families; CRI-DS) to predict problem outcomes of children who have experienced parental divorce. A series of analyses using 3 data sets were conducted that identified and cross-validated a parsimonious set of items representing parent report of child behavior problems and family level risk and protective factors, each of which contributed to the predictive accuracy of the index. The index predicted child behavior outcomes and substance abuse problems up to 6 years later. The index has acceptable levels of sensitivity and specificity as a screening measure to predict problem outcomes up to 1 year later. The use of the index to identify the need for preventive services is discussed, along with limitations of the study.

19 CFR 351.518 - Exemption, remission, or deferral upon export of prior-stage cumulative indirect taxes.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... prior-stage cumulative indirect taxes. 351.518 Section 351.518 Customs Duties INTERNATIONAL TRADE... indirect taxes. (a) Benefit—(1) Exemption of prior-stage cumulative indirect taxes. In the case of a... production of an exported product, a benefit exists to the extent that the exemption extends to inputs that...

Design data and safety features of commercial nuclear power plants including cumulative index for Volumes I--VI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heddleson, F.A.

1977-01-01

Design data, safety features, and site characteristics are summarized for 12 nuclear power units in 6 power stations in the United States. Six pages of data are presented for each station, consisting of thermal-hydraulic and nuclear factors, containment features, emergency-core-cooling systems, site features, circulating water system data, and miscellaneous factors. In addition, an aerial perspective is presented for each plant. This volume covers plants with docket numbers 50-553 through 50-569 (Phipps Bend, Black Fox, Yellow Creek, and NEP) and two earlier plants not previously reported--Hope Creek (50-354, 50-355) and WPPSS 1 and 4 (50-460, 50-513). Indexes for this volume and the five earlier volumes are presented in three forms--by docket number, by plant name, and by participating utility

Detecting leaf pulvinar movements on NDVI time series of desert trees: a new approach for water stress detection.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberto O Chávez

Full Text Available Heliotropic leaf movement or leaf 'solar tracking' occurs for a wide variety of plants, including many desert species and some crops. This has an important effect on the canopy spectral reflectance as measured from satellites. For this reason, monitoring systems based on spectral vegetation indices, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, should account for heliotropic movements when evaluating the health condition of such species. In the hyper-arid Atacama Desert, Northern Chile, we studied seasonal and diurnal variations of MODIS and Landsat NDVI time series of plantation stands of the endemic species Prosopis tamarugo Phil., subject to different levels of groundwater depletion. As solar irradiation increased during the day and also during the summer, the paraheliotropic leaves of Tamarugo moved to an erectophile position (parallel to the sun rays making the NDVI signal to drop. This way, Tamarugo stands with no water stress showed a positive NDVI difference between morning and midday (ΔNDVI mo-mi and between winter and summer (ΔNDVI W-S. In this paper, we showed that the ΔNDVI mo-mi of Tamarugo stands can be detected using MODIS Terra and Aqua images, and the ΔNDVI W-S using Landsat or MODIS Terra images. Because pulvinar movement is triggered by changes in cell turgor, the effects of water stress caused by groundwater depletion can be assessed and monitored using ΔNDVI mo-mi and ΔNDVI W-S. For an 11-year time series without rainfall events, Landsat ΔNDVI W-S of Tamarugo stands showed a positive linear relationship with cumulative groundwater depletion. We conclude that both ΔNDVI mo-mi and ΔNDVI W-S have potential to detect early water stress of paraheliotropic vegetation.

Detecting leaf pulvinar movements on NDVI time series of desert trees: a new approach for water stress detection.

Science.gov (United States)

Chávez, Roberto O; Clevers, Jan G P W; Verbesselt, Jan; Naulin, Paulette I; Herold, Martin

2014-01-01

Heliotropic leaf movement or leaf 'solar tracking' occurs for a wide variety of plants, including many desert species and some crops. This has an important effect on the canopy spectral reflectance as measured from satellites. For this reason, monitoring systems based on spectral vegetation indices, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), should account for heliotropic movements when evaluating the health condition of such species. In the hyper-arid Atacama Desert, Northern Chile, we studied seasonal and diurnal variations of MODIS and Landsat NDVI time series of plantation stands of the endemic species Prosopis tamarugo Phil., subject to different levels of groundwater depletion. As solar irradiation increased during the day and also during the summer, the paraheliotropic leaves of Tamarugo moved to an erectophile position (parallel to the sun rays) making the NDVI signal to drop. This way, Tamarugo stands with no water stress showed a positive NDVI difference between morning and midday (ΔNDVI mo-mi) and between winter and summer (ΔNDVI W-S). In this paper, we showed that the ΔNDVI mo-mi of Tamarugo stands can be detected using MODIS Terra and Aqua images, and the ΔNDVI W-S using Landsat or MODIS Terra images. Because pulvinar movement is triggered by changes in cell turgor, the effects of water stress caused by groundwater depletion can be assessed and monitored using ΔNDVI mo-mi and ΔNDVI W-S. For an 11-year time series without rainfall events, Landsat ΔNDVI W-S of Tamarugo stands showed a positive linear relationship with cumulative groundwater depletion. We conclude that both ΔNDVI mo-mi and ΔNDVI W-S have potential to detect early water stress of paraheliotropic vegetation.

Experimental investigation of slamming impact acted on flat bottom bodies and cumulative damage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyunkyoung Shin

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Most offshore structures including offshore wind turbines, ships, etc. suffer from the impulsive pressure loads due to slamming phenomena in rough waves. The effects of elasticity & plasticity on such slamming loads are investigated through wet free drop test results of several steel unstiffened flat bottom bodies in the rectangular water tank. Also, their cumulative deformations by consecutively repetitive free drops from 1000 mm to 2000 mm in height are measured. Keywords: Slamming phenomena, Impulsive pressure load, Wet free drop test, Flat bottom body, Cumulative damage

Forecasting Inflation Using Interest-Rate and Time-Series Models: Some International Evidence.

OpenAIRE

Hafer, R W; Hein, Scott E

1990-01-01

It has been suggested that inflation forecasts derived from short-term interest rates are as accurate as time-series forecasts. Previous analyses of this notion have focused on U.S. data, providing mixed results. In this article, the authors extend previous work by testing the hypothesis using data taken from the United States and five other countries. Using monthly Eurocurrency rates and the consumer price index for the period 1967-86, their results indicate that time-series forecasts of inf...

Non-invasive assessment of peripheral arterial disease: Automated ankle brachial index measurement and pulse volume analysis compared to duplex scan.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Jane Ea; Williams, Paul; Davies, Jane H

2016-01-01

This cross-sectional study aimed to individually and cumulatively compare sensitivity and specificity of the (1) ankle brachial index and (2) pulse volume waveform analysis recorded by the same automated device, with the presence or absence of peripheral arterial disease being verified by ultrasound duplex scan. Patients (n=205) referred for lower limb arterial assessment underwent ankle brachial index measurement and pulse volume waveform recording using volume plethysmography, followed by ultrasound duplex scan. The presence of peripheral arterial disease was recorded if ankle brachial index 50% was evident with ultrasound duplex scan. Outcome measure was agreement between the measured ankle brachial index and interpretation of pulse volume waveform for peripheral arterial disease diagnosis, using ultrasound duplex scan as the reference standard. Sensitivity of ankle brachial index was 79%, specificity 91% and overall accuracy 88%. Pulse volume waveform sensitivity was 97%, specificity 81% and overall accuracy 85%. The combined sensitivity of ankle brachial index and pulse volume waveform was 100%, specificity 76% and overall accuracy 85%. Combining these two diagnostic modalities within one device provided a highly accurate method of ruling out peripheral arterial disease, which could be utilised in primary care to safely reduce unnecessary secondary care referrals.

Cumulative childhood trauma and psychological maladjustment of sexually abused children in Korea: mediating effects of emotion regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Ji Young; Oh, Kyung Ja

2014-02-01

The purpose of the present study was to identify the mediating effects of emotion regulation on the association between cumulative childhood trauma and behavior problems in sexually abused children in Korea, using structural equation modeling (SEM). Data were collected on 171 children (ages 6-13 years) referred to a public counseling center for sexual abuse in Seoul, Korea. Cumulative childhood traumas were defined on the basis of number of traumas (physical abuse, witnessing domestic violence, neglect, traumatic separation from parent, and sexual abuse) and the severity and duration of traumas. Children were evaluated by their parents on emotion regulation using the Emotion Regulation Checklist and internalizing and externalizing behavior problems using the Korean-Child Behavior Checklist. SEM analyses confirmed the complete mediation model, in which emotion dysregulation fully mediates the relationship between cumulative childhood traumas and internalizing/externalizing behavior problems. These findings indicate that emotion regulation is an important mechanism that can explain the negative effects of cumulative childhood traumas and that there is a need to focus on emotion regulation in sexually abused children exposed to cumulative trauma. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulative doses analysis in young trauma patients: a single-centre experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Salerno, Sergio; Marrale, Maurizio; Geraci, Claudia; Caruso, Giuseppe; Lo Re, Giuseppe; Lo Casto, Antonio; Midiri, Massimo

2016-02-01

Multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) represents the main source of radiation exposure in trauma patients. The radiation exposure of young patients is a matter of considerable medical concern due to possible long-term effects. Multiple MDCT studies have been observed in the young trauma population with an increase in radiation exposure. We have identified 249 young adult patients (178 men and 71 women; age range 14-40 years) who had received more than one MDCT study between June 2010 and June 2014. According to the International Commission on Radiological Protection publication, we have calculated the cumulative organ dose tissue-weighting factors by using CT-EXPO software(®). We have observed a mean cumulative dose of about 27 mSv (range from 3 to 297 mSv). The distribution analysis is characterised by low effective dose, below 20 mSv, in the majority of the patients. However, in 29 patients, the effective dose was found to be higher than 20 mSv. Dose distribution for the various organs analysed (breasts, ovaries, testicles, heart and eye lenses) shows an intense peak for lower doses, but in some cases high doses were recorded. Even though cumulative doses may have long-term effects, which are still under debate, high doses are observed in this specific group of young patients.

Cumulative effects in strategic environmental assessment: The influence of plan boundaries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bidstrup, Morten, E-mail: bidstrup@plan.aau.dk [Aalborg University (Denmark); Kørnøv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk [Aalborg University (Denmark); Partidário, Maria Rosário, E-mail: mariapartidario@tecnico.ulisboa.pt [CEG-IST, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa (Portugal)

2016-02-15

Cumulative effects (CE) assessment is lacking quality in impact assessment (IA) worldwide. It has been argued that the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) provides a suitable IA framework for addressing CE because it is applied to developments with broad boundaries, but few have tested this claim. Through a case study on the Danish mining sector, this article explores how plan boundaries influence the analytical boundaries applied for assessing CE in SEA. The case was studied through document analysis in combination with semi-structured group interviews of the responsible planners, who also serve as SEA practitioners. It was found that CE are to some extent assessed and managed implicitly throughout the planning process. However, this is through a focus on lowering the cumulative stress of mining rather than the cumulative stress on and capacity of the receiving environment. Plan boundaries do influence CE assessment, though all boundaries are not equally influential. The geographical and time boundaries of the Danish mining plans are broad or flexible enough to accommodate a meaningful assessment of CE, but the topical boundary is restrictive. The study indicates that collaboration among planning authorities and legally appointed CE leadership may facilitate better practice on CE assessment in sector-specific SEA contexts. However, most pressing is the need for relating assessment to the receiving environment as opposed to solely the stress of a proposed plan.

Cumulative effects in strategic environmental assessment: The influence of plan boundaries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bidstrup, Morten; Kørnøv, Lone; Partidário, Maria Rosário

2016-01-01

Cumulative effects (CE) assessment is lacking quality in impact assessment (IA) worldwide. It has been argued that the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) provides a suitable IA framework for addressing CE because it is applied to developments with broad boundaries, but few have tested this claim. Through a case study on the Danish mining sector, this article explores how plan boundaries influence the analytical boundaries applied for assessing CE in SEA. The case was studied through document analysis in combination with semi-structured group interviews of the responsible planners, who also serve as SEA practitioners. It was found that CE are to some extent assessed and managed implicitly throughout the planning process. However, this is through a focus on lowering the cumulative stress of mining rather than the cumulative stress on and capacity of the receiving environment. Plan boundaries do influence CE assessment, though all boundaries are not equally influential. The geographical and time boundaries of the Danish mining plans are broad or flexible enough to accommodate a meaningful assessment of CE, but the topical boundary is restrictive. The study indicates that collaboration among planning authorities and legally appointed CE leadership may facilitate better practice on CE assessment in sector-specific SEA contexts. However, most pressing is the need for relating assessment to the receiving environment as opposed to solely the stress of a proposed plan.

A Cumulant-based Analysis of Nonlinear Magnetospheric Dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, Jay R.; Wing, Simon

2004-01-01

Understanding magnetospheric dynamics and predicting future behavior of the magnetosphere is of great practical interest because it could potentially help to avert catastrophic loss of power and communications. In order to build good predictive models it is necessary to understand the most critical nonlinear dependencies among observed plasma and electromagnetic field variables in the coupled solar wind/magnetosphere system. In this work, we apply a cumulant-based information dynamical measure to characterize the nonlinear dynamics underlying the time evolution of the Dst and Kp geomagnetic indices, given solar wind magnetic field and plasma input. We examine the underlying dynamics of the system, the temporal statistical dependencies, the degree of nonlinearity, and the rate of information loss. We find a significant solar cycle dependence in the underlying dynamics of the system with greater nonlinearity for solar minimum. The cumulant-based approach also has the advantage that it is reliable even in the case of small data sets and therefore it is possible to avoid the assumption of stationarity, which allows for a measure of predictability even when the underlying system dynamics may change character. Evaluations of several leading Kp prediction models indicate that their performances are sub-optimal during active times. We discuss possible improvements of these models based on this nonparametric approach

INDEXING AND INDEX FUNDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

HAKAN SARITAŞ

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Proponents of the efficient market hypothesis believe that active portfolio management is largely wasted effort and unlikely to justify the expenses incurred. Therefore, they advocate a passive investment strategy that makes no attempt to outsmart the market. One common strategy for passive management is indexing where a fund is designed to replicate the performance of a broad-based index of stocks and bonds. Traditionally, indexing was used by institutional investors, but today, the use of index funds proliferated among individual investors. Over the years, both international and domestic index funds have disproportionately outperformed the market more than the actively managed funds have.

Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jong, de R.; Bruin, de S.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Schaepman, M.E.; Dent, D.L.

2011-01-01

Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect greening and browning trends; especially the global coverage of time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data which are available from 1981. Seasonality and serial auto-correlation in the data have previously been dealt

User's manual to the ICRP Code: a series of computer programs to perform dosimetric calculations for the ICRP Committee 2 report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watson, S.B.; Ford, M.R.

1980-02-01

A computer code has been developed that implements the recommendations of ICRP Committee 2 for computing limits for occupational exposure of radionuclides. The purpose of this report is to describe the various modules of the computer code and to present a description of the methods and criteria used to compute the tables published in the Committee 2 report. The computer code contains three modules of which: (1) one computes specific effective energy; (2) one calculates cumulated activity; and (3) one computes dose and the series of ICRP tables. The description of the first two modules emphasizes the new ICRP Committee 2 recommendations in computing specific effective energy and cumulated activity. For the third module, the complex criteria are discussed for calculating the tables of committed dose equivalent, weighted committed dose equivalents, annual limit of intake, and derived air concentration

Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Gerald G; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai M A

2017-09-01

Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits - fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity-addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for approaches