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Sample records for series capacitor model

  1. Modeling error and stability of endothelial cytoskeletal membrane parameters based on modeling transendothelial impedance as resistor and capacitor in series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodmer, James E; English, Anthony; Brady, Megan; Blackwell, Ken; Haxhinasto, Kari; Fotedar, Sunaina; Borgman, Kurt; Bai, Er-Wei; Moy, Alan B

    2005-09-01

    Transendothelial impedance across an endothelial monolayer grown on a microelectrode has previously been modeled as a repeating pattern of disks in which the electrical circuit consists of a resistor and capacitor in series. Although this numerical model breaks down barrier function into measurements of cell-cell adhesion, cell-matrix adhesion, and membrane capacitance, such solution parameters can be inaccurate without understanding model stability and error. In this study, we have evaluated modeling stability and error by using a chi(2) evaluation and Levenberg-Marquardt nonlinear least-squares (LM-NLS) method of the real and/or imaginary data in which the experimental measurement is compared with the calculated measurement derived by the model. Modeling stability and error were dependent on current frequency and the type of experimental data modeled. Solution parameters of cell-matrix adhesion were most susceptible to modeling instability. Furthermore, the LM-NLS method displayed frequency-dependent instability of the solution parameters, regardless of whether the real or imaginary data were analyzed. However, the LM-NLS method identified stable and reproducible solution parameters between all types of experimental data when a defined frequency spectrum of the entire data set was selected on the basis of a criterion of minimizing error. The frequency bandwidth that produced stable solution parameters varied greatly among different data types. Thus a numerical model based on characterizing transendothelial impedance as a resistor and capacitor in series and as a repeating pattern of disks is not sufficient to characterize the entire frequency spectrum of experimental transendothelial impedance.

  2. Transmission Line Resonator Segmented with Series Capacitors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhurbenko, Vitaliy; Boer, Vincent; Petersen, Esben Thade

    2016-01-01

    Transmission line resonators are often used as coils in high field MRI. Due to distributed nature of such resonators, coils based on them produce inhomogeneous field. This work investigates application of series capacitors to improve field homogeneity along the resonator. The equations for optimal...... values of evenly distributed capacitors are presented. The performances of the segmented resonator and a regular transmission line resonator are compared....

  3. Laboratory-scale thyristor controlled series capacitor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuki, J.; Ikeda, K.; Abe, M. [Kyoto University, Kyoto (Japan)

    1996-10-20

    This paper describes the results of an experimental study on the characteristics of a thyristor controlled series capacitor (TCSC). At present, there are two major thyristor controlled series compensation projects in the U.S.: the Kayenta ASC and the Slatt TCSC. However, there has been little operating experience and thus further understanding of the characteristics of TCSC is still to be sought. Therefore, a laboratory-scale TCSC was produced and installed in a laboratory power system. The impedance characteristics, waveshapes of voltages and currents in the TCSC circuit, and harmonics, for various thyristor firing angles, and insertion responses were measured and analyzed. In particular, effects of the size of the circuit components, i.e., parasitic resistance, additional damping resistance and series reactor, on the overall TCSC performances were investigated. The results were compared with EMTP simulations. 10 refs., 7 figs.

  4. Thyristor-controlled reactor improves series capacitor applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renz, K.W.; Thumm, G.; Weiss, S. [Siemens AG, Erlangen (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Environmental considerations make it more and more difficult to plan and erect new transmission lines. FACTS (Flexible AC Transmission Systems) technology can provide devices to improve the utility of AC transmission lines. The innovative combination of conventional fixed series capacitors and thyristor controlled reactors as a new FACTS device was introduced into a transmission system in 1992. This Advanced Series Compensation (ASC) system provides many advantages not available with conventional fixed series capacitor installations such as flexible direct and continuous control of the compensation level, direct and smooth power flow control and improved capacitor bank protection. This new technology offers enhanced system flexibility by control of transmission line overload conditions, reduction in fault currents, sub-synchronous resonance (SSR) mitigation and network power oscillation damping. The world-first three-phase installation at Kayenta Substation, USA, demonstrates that modern FACTS devices using SVC thyristor valve technology can be designed and operated successfully. 6 refs, 7 figs

  5. Current Control of Grid Converters Connected with Series AC Capacitor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Xiongfei; Blaabjerg, Frede; Loh, Poh Chiang

    2015-01-01

    The series ac capacitor has recently been used with the transformerless grid-connected converters in the distribution power grids. The capacitive characteristic of the resulting series LC filter restricts the use of conventional synchronous integral or stationary resonant current controllers. Thus...... this paper proposes a fourth-order resonant controller in the stationary frame, which guarantees a zero steady-state current tracking error for the grid converters with series LC filter. This method is then implemented in a three-phase experimental system for verification, where the current harmonics below...... the LC filter resonance frequency are effectively eliminated. Experimental results confirm the validity of the proposed current control scheme....

  6. Capacitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotter, Donald M., Jr.

    1988-01-01

    Presents a historical backdrop for a discussion of capacitor design and function. Discusses the production, importance, and function of two types of miniature capacitors; electrolytic and multilayer ceramic capacitors. Describes the function of these miniature capacitors in comparison to the Leyden jar, a basic demonstration of capacitance. (CW)

  7. Optimal Value of Series Capacitors for Uniform Field Distribution in Transmission Line MRI Coils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhurbenko, Vitaliy

    2016-01-01

    Transmission lines are often used as coils in high field magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Due to the distributed nature of transmission lines, coils based on them produce inhomogeneous field. This work investigates application of series capacitors to improve field homogeneity along the coil....... The equations for optimal values of evenly distributed capacitors are derived and expressed in terms of the implemented transmission line parameters.The achieved magnetic field homogeneity is estimated under quasistatic approximation and compared to the regular transmission line resonator. Finally, a more...... practical case of a microstrip line coil with two series capacitors is considered....

  8. Super capacitor modeling with artificial neural network (ANN)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marie-Francoise, J.N.; Gualous, H.; Berthon, A. [Universite de Franche-Comte, Lab. en Electronique, Electrotechnique et Systemes (L2ES), UTBM, INRETS (LRE T31) 90 - Belfort (France)

    2004-07-01

    This paper presents super-capacitors modeling using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The principle consists on a black box nonlinear multiple inputs single output (MISO) model. The system inputs are temperature and current, the output is the super-capacitor voltage. The learning and the validation of the ANN model from experimental charge and discharge of super-capacitor establish the relationship between inputs and output. The learning and the validation of the ANN model use experimental results of 2700 F, 3700 F and a super-capacitor pack. Once the network is trained, the ANN model can predict the super-capacitor behaviour with temperature variations. The update parameters of the ANN model are performed thanks to Levenberg-Marquardt method in order to minimize the error between the output of the system and the predicted output. The obtained results with the ANN model of super-capacitor and experimental ones are in good agreement. (authors)

  9. Impedance Characteristics Modeling of a Two-Terminal Active Capacitor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Haoran; Wang, Huai; Lu, Minghui

    2017-01-01

    to overcome the above issues. In this paper, the modeling of the active capacitor is investigated and a voltage feed-forward compensation scheme is proposed for overshoot reduction. Therefore, the impedance, equivalent capacitance, ESR, and ESL, of the active capacitor can be specified. A case study based...

  10. Physics based Degradation Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors under Electrical Overstress Conditions

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper proposes a physics based degradation modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors are critical components in...

  11. Prognostics Health Management and Physics based failure Models for Electrolytic Capacitors

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major...

  12. Physics Based Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan; Ceyla, Jose R.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors have become critical components in electronics systems in aeronautics and other domains. Degradations and faults in DC-DC converter unit propagates to the GPS and navigation subsystems and affects the overall solution. Capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major components, which cause degradations and failures in DC-DC converters. This type of capacitors are known for its low reliability and frequent breakdown on critical systems like power supplies of avionics equipment and electrical drivers of electromechanical actuators of control surfaces. Some of the more prevalent fault effects, such as a ripple voltage surge at the power supply output can cause glitches in the GPS position and velocity output, and this, in turn, if not corrected will propagate and distort the navigation solution. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

  13. Nonlinear Control Synthesis for Electrical Power Systems Using Controllable Series Capacitors

    CERN Document Server

    Manjarekar, N S

    2012-01-01

    In this work we derive asymptotically stabilizing control laws for electrical power systems using two nonlinear control synthesis techniques. For this transient stabilization problem the actuator considered is a power electronic device, a controllable series capacitor (CSC). The power system is described using two different nonlinear models - the second order swing equation and the third order flux-decay model. To start with, the CSC is modeled by the injection model which is based on the assumption that the CSC dynamics is very fast as compared to the dynamics of the power system and hence can be approximated by an algebraic equation. Here, by neglecting the CSC dynamics, the input vector $g(x)$ in the open loop system takes a complex form - the injection model. Using this model, interconnection and damping assignment passivity-based control (IDA-PBC) methodology is demonstrated on two power systems: a single machine infinite bus (SMIB) system and a two machine system. Further, IDA-PBC is used to derive stab...

  14. Improved Field Homogeneity for Transmission Line MRI Coils Using Series Capacitors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhurbenko, Vitaliy; Dong, Yunfeng

    2015-01-01

    High field magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) systems often use short sections of transmission lines for generating and sensing alternating magnetic fields. Due to distributed nature of transmission lines, the generated field is inhomogeneous. This work investigates the application of series capaci...... capacitors to improve the field homogeneity. The resulting magnetic field distribution is estimated analytically and evaluated numerically. The results are compared to a case of a conventional transmission line coil realization....

  15. Impact of Thyristors Controlled Series Capacitor Devices and Optimal Power Flow on Power Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatiha LAKDJA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an algorithm, for solving the Optimal Power Flow problem with flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS. The type of FACTS devices is used: thyristor-controlled series capacitor (TCSC. A method to determine the optimal location of thyristor controlled series compensators has been suggested. The proposed approaches have been implemented on an adapted IEEE 26 bus system. The simulation results are discussed to show the performance of the proposed algorithm and our “FACTS programmer “simulator technique, which are compared with TCSC and without TCSC.

  16. Nonlinear control synthesis for electrical power systems using controllable series capacitors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manjarekar, N.S.; Banavar, Ravi N. [Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai (India). Systems and Control Engineering

    2012-07-01

    In this work we derive asymptotically stabilizing control laws for electrical power systems using two nonlinear control synthesis techniques. For this transient stabilization problem the actuator considered is a power electronic device, a controllable series capacitor (CSC). The power system is described using two different nonlinear models - the second order swing equation and the third order flux-decay model. To start with, the CSC is modeled by the injection model which is based on the assumption that the CSC dynamics is very fast as compared to the dynamics of the power system and hence can be approximated by an algebraic equation. Here, by neglecting the CSC dynamics, the input vector g(x) in the open loop system takes a complex form - the injection model. Using this model, interconnection and damping assignment passivity-based control (IDA-PBC) methodology is demonstrated on two power systems: a single machine infinite bus (SMIB) system and a two machine system. Further, IDA-PBC is used to derive stabilizing controllers for power systems, where the CSC dynamics are included as a first order system. Next, we consider a different control methodology, immersion and invariance (I and I), to synthesize an asymptotically stabilizing control law for the SMIB system with a CSC. The CSC is described by a first order system. As a generalization of I and I, we incorporate the power balance algebraic constraints in the load bus to the SMIB swing equation, and extend the design philosophy to a class of differential algebraic systems. The proposed result is then demonstrated on another example: a two-machine system with two load buses and a CSC. The controller performances are validated through simulations for all cases.

  17. Experimental program for physics-of-failure modeling of electrolytic capacitors towards prognostics and health management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rana, Y.S.; Banerjee, Shantanab; Singh, Tej; Varde, P.V.

    2017-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is a method used for predicting reliability of a component or system by assessing its current health and future operating conditions. A physics-of-failure (PoF)-based program on PHM for reliability prediction has been initiated at our institute. As part of the program, we aim at developing PoF-based models for degradation of electronic components and their experimental validation. In this direction, a database on existing PoF models for different electronic components has been prepared. We plan to experimentally determine the model constants and propose suitable methodology for PHM. Electrolytic capacitors are one of the most common passive components which find their applications in devices such as power supplies in aircrafts and printed circuit boards (PCBs) for regulation and protection of a nuclear reactor. Experimental studies have established that electrolytic capacitors degrade under electrical and thermal stress and tend to fail before their anticipated useful life at normal operating conditions. Equivalent series resistance (ESR) and capacitance (C) are the two main parameters used for monitoring health of such capacitors. In this paper, we present an experimental program for thermal and electrical overstress studies towards degradation models for electrolytic capacitors. (author)

  18. Reliability Modeling Development and Its Applications for Ceramic Capacitors with Base-Metal Electrodes (BMEs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Donhang

    2014-01-01

    This presentation includes a summary of NEPP-funded deliverables for the Base-Metal Electrodes (BMEs) capacitor task, development of a general reliability model for BME capacitors, and a summary and future work.

  19. The Two-Capacitor Problem Revisited: A Mechanical Harmonic Oscillator Model Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Keeyung

    2009-01-01

    The well-known two-capacitor problem, in which exactly half the stored energy disappears when a charged capacitor is connected to an identical capacitor, is discussed based on the mechanical harmonic oscillator model approach. In the mechanical harmonic oscillator model, it is shown first that "exactly half" the work done by a constant applied…

  20. Electrical modeling of semiconductor bridge (SCB) BNCP detonators with electrochemical capacitor firing sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marx, K.D. [Sandia National Labs., Livermore, CA (United States); Ingersoll, D.; Bickes, R.W. Jr. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1998-11-01

    In this paper the authors describe computer models that simulate the electrical characteristics and hence, the firing characteristics and performance of a semiconductor bridge (SCB) detonator for the initiation of BNCP [tetraammine-cis-bis (5-nitro-2H-tetrazolato-N{sup 2}) cobalt(III) perchlorate]. The electrical data and resultant models provide new insights into the fundamental behavior of SCB detonators, particularly with respect to the initiation mechanism and the interaction of the explosive powder with the SCB. One model developed, the Thermal Feedback Model, considers the total energy budget for the system, including the time evolution of the energy delivered to the powder by the electrical circuit, as well as that released by the ignition and subsequent chemical reaction of the powder. The authors also present data obtained using a new low-voltage firing set which employed an advanced electrochemical capacitor having a nominal capacitance of 350,000 {micro}F at 9 V, the maximum voltage rating for this particular device. A model for this firing set and detonator was developed by making measurements of the intrinsic capacitance and equivalent series resistance (ESR < 10 m{Omega}) of a single device. This model was then used to predict the behavior of BNCP SCB detonators fired alone, as well as in a multishot, parallel-string configuration using a firing set composed of either a single 9 V electrochemical capacitor or two of the capacitors wired in series and charged to 18 V.

  1. New series half-bridge converters with the balance input split capacitor voltages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Bor-Ren; Chiang, Huann-Keng; Wang, Shang-Lun

    2016-03-01

    This article presents a new dc/dc converter to perform the main functions of zero voltage switching (ZWS), low converter size, high switching frequency and low-voltage stress. Metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) with high switching frequency are used to reduce the converter size and increase circuit efficiency. To overcome low-voltage stress and high turn-on resistance of MOSFETs, the series half-bridge topology is adopted in the proposed converter. Hence, the low-voltage stress MOSFETs can be used for medium-input voltage applications. The asymmetric pulse-width modulation is used to generate the gating signals and achieve the ZWS. On the secondary side, the parallel connection of two diode rectifiers is adopted to reduce the current rating of passive components. On the primary side, the series connection of two transformers is used to balance two output inductor currents. Two flying capacitors are used to automatically balance the input split capacitor voltages. Finally, experiments with 1000 W rated power are performed to verify the theoretical analysis and the effectiveness of proposed converter.

  2. A review of molecular modelling of electric double layer capacitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, Ryan; Birkett, Greg; Zhao, X S

    2014-04-14

    Electric double-layer capacitors are a family of electrochemical energy storage devices that offer a number of advantages, such as high power density and long cyclability. In recent years, research and development of electric double-layer capacitor technology has been growing rapidly, in response to the increasing demand for energy storage devices from emerging industries, such as hybrid and electric vehicles, renewable energy, and smart grid management. The past few years have witnessed a number of significant research breakthroughs in terms of novel electrodes, new electrolytes, and fabrication of devices, thanks to the discovery of innovative materials (e.g. graphene, carbide-derived carbon, and templated carbon) and the availability of advanced experimental and computational tools. However, some experimental observations could not be clearly understood and interpreted due to limitations of traditional theories, some of which were developed more than one hundred years ago. This has led to significant research efforts in computational simulation and modelling, aimed at developing new theories, or improving the existing ones to help interpret experimental results. This review article provides a summary of research progress in molecular modelling of the physical phenomena taking place in electric double-layer capacitors. An introduction to electric double-layer capacitors and their applications, alongside a brief description of electric double layer theories, is presented first. Second, molecular modelling of ion behaviours of various electrolytes interacting with electrodes under different conditions is reviewed. Finally, key conclusions and outlooks are given. Simulations on comparing electric double-layer structure at planar and porous electrode surfaces under equilibrium conditions have revealed significant structural differences between the two electrode types, and porous electrodes have been shown to store charge more efficiently. Accurate electrolyte and

  3. A Modularized Discharge-Type Balancing Topology for Series-Connected Super Capacitor String

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaogui Fan

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposed a modularized discharge-type topology for the voltage balance of series-connected super capacitor (SC string. The proposed topology consists of cascaded converter modules and a boost converter. The cascaded converter modules discharge the higher voltage SCs directly with the ideal output current to realize a fast balancing speed and the boost converter feedbacks the extra energy from the higher voltage SCs to the super capacitor energy storage system (SCESS. The modular design of the cascaded converter modules makes the balancing system suitable for different voltage levels of SCESS. Unlike the charge-type topologies which discharge the higher voltage SCs indirectly, the proposed topology discharges the higher voltage SCs directly with a big current, and the over voltage phenomenon of SCs is then avoided, which means the reliability of the SCESS can be improved. The voltage stress of the switches inside the cascaded converter modules is low, which is different from the existing modularized discharge-type balancing topology. What is more, the control of cascaded converter modules and the boost converter can be implemented by analog devices which will simplify the control of the whole system. The control degree of freedom is high and the voltage of each cell can be controlled. An in-depth comparison analysis with the charge-type balancing topology is performed from the perspective of balancing speed and round-trip energy efficiency. The proposed topology and the balancing performance are confirmed by experimental results.

  4. Three-dimensional vertical Si nanowire MOS capacitor model structure for the study of electrical versus geometrical Si nanowire characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hourdakis, E.; Casanova, A.; Larrieu, G.; Nassiopoulou, A. G.

    2018-05-01

    Three-dimensional (3D) Si surface nanostructuring is interesting towards increasing the capacitance density of a metal-oxidesemiconductor (MOS) capacitor, while keeping reduced footprint for miniaturization. Si nanowires (SiNWs) can be used in this respect. With the aim of understanding the electrical versus geometrical characteristics of such capacitors, we fabricated and studied a MOS capacitor with highly ordered arrays of vertical Si nanowires of different lengths and thermal silicon oxide dielectric, in comparison to similar flat MOS capacitors. The high homogeneity and ordering of the SiNWs allowed the determination of the single SiNW capacitance and intrinsic series resistance, as well as other electrical characteristics (density of interface states, flat-band voltage and leakage current) in relation to the geometrical characteristics of the SiNWs. The SiNW capacitors demonstrated increased capacitance density compared to the flat case, while maintaining a cutoff frequency above 1 MHz, much higher than in other reports in the literature. Finally, our model system has been shown to constitute an excellent platform for the study of SiNW capacitors with either grown or deposited dielectrics, as for example high-k dielectrics for further increasing the capacitance density. This will be the subject of future work.

  5. Capacitor Discharge - A Capacitor Tutorial [video

    OpenAIRE

    Naval Postgraduate School Physics

    2014-01-01

    NPS Physics Physics Demonstrations Here's a capacitor discharge demonstrated by physicist Dr. Dernardo. Dr. D gives a nice capacitor lesson along with some fireworks. Charging and Discharging a Capacitor is dangerous. Do not try this at home. Dr. Bruce Denardo uses eleven 9V batteries, connected in series for a total of 99 creating a pretty large spark.

  6. Physics of failure based analysis of aluminium electrolytic capacitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahoo, Satya Ranjan; Behera, S.K.; Kumar, Sachin; Varde, P.V.; Ravi Kumar, G.

    2016-01-01

    Electrolytic capacitors are one of the important devices in various power electronic systems, such as motor drives, uninterruptible power supply, electric vehicles and dc power supply. Electrolytic capacitors are also the integral part of many other electronic devices. One of the primary function of electrolytic capacitors is the smoothing of voltage ripple and storing electrical energy. However, the electrolytic capacitor has the shortest lifespan of components in power electronics. Past experiences show that electrolytic capacitor tends to degrade and fail faster under high electrical or thermal stress conditions during operations. The primary failure mechanism of an electrolytic capacitor is the evaporation of the electrolyte due to electrical or thermal overstress. This leads to the drift in the values of two important parameters-capacitance and equivalent series resistance (ESR) of the electrolytic capacitor. An attempt has been made to age the electrolytic capacitor and validate the results. The overall goal is to derive the accurate degradation model of the electrolytic capacitor. (author)

  7. Degradation failure model of self-healing metallized film pulse capacitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Quan; Zhong Zheng; Zhou Jinglun; Zhao Jianyin; Wei Xiaofeng; Guo Liangfu; Zhou Pizhang; Li Yizheng; Chen Dehuai

    2004-01-01

    The high energy density self-healing metallized film pulse capacitor has been applied to all kinds of laser facilities for their power conditioning systems, whose reliability and expense are straightforwardly affected by the reliability level of the capacitors. Based on the related research in literature, this paper analyses the degradation mechanism of the capacitor, and presents a new degradation failure model--the Gauss-Poisson model. The Gauss-Poisson model divides degradation of capacitor into naturalness degradation and outburst one. Compared with traditional Weibull failure model, the new model is more precise in evaluating the lifetime of the capacitor, and the life tests for this model are simple in design, and lower in the cost of time or expense. The Gauss-Poisson model will be a fine and widely used degradation disable model. (author)

  8. Design and modeling of inductors, capacitors and coplanar waveguides at tens of GHz frequencies

    CERN Document Server

    Aryan, Naser Pour

    2015-01-01

    This book describes the basic principles of designing and modelling inductors, MIM capacitors and coplanar waveguides at frequencies of several tens of GHz. The author explains the design and modelling of key, passive elements, such as capacitors, inductors and transmission lines that enable high frequency MEMS operating at frequencies in the orders of tens of GHz.

  9. Instantaneous thermal modeling of the DC-link capacitor in PhotoVoltaic systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Yongheng; Ma, Ke; Wang, Huai

    2015-01-01

    , instantaneous thermal modeling approaches considering mission profiles for the DC-link capacitor in single-phase PV systems are explored in this paper. These thermal modelling approaches are based on: a) fast Fourier transform, b) look-up tables, and c) ripple current reconstruction. Moreover, the thermal...... grid-connected PV system have been adopted to demonstrate a look-up table based modelling approach, where real-field daily ambient conditions are considered....... modelling approaches for the DC-link capacitors take into account the instantaneous thermal characteristics, which are more challenging to the capacitor reliability during operation. Such instantaneous thermal modeling approaches enable a translation of instantaneous capacitor power losses to capacitor...

  10. Modeling and fabrication of an RF MEMS variable capacitor with a fractal geometry

    KAUST Repository

    Elshurafa, Amro M.; Ho, P.H.; Salama, Khaled N.

    2013-01-01

    capacitor is increasing the tuning range of the variable capacitor beyond the typical ratio of 1.5. The modeling was carried out using the commercially available finite element software COMSOL to predict both the tuning range and pull-in voltage. Measurement

  11. Physics of Failure Models for Capacitor Degradation in DC-DC Converters

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper proposes a combined energy-based model with an empirical physics of failure model for degradation analysis and prognosis of electrolytic capacitors in...

  12. Modelling of storage of the photovoltaic energy by super-capacitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camara, Mohamed Ansoumane

    2011-01-01

    The storage by ultra-capacitors of photovoltaic energy is modeled in order to have an accurate and accessible model to integrate ultra-capacitors into solar energy conversion systems. Ultra-capacitors are modeled by a multi-branch circuit representation composed of resistors and capacitors with variable voltage whose values are determined by an accurate characterization experiment. Moreover, all the elements of a typical photovoltaic energy conversion system are modeled by using the Matlab/Simulink software (solar radiation, photovoltaic arrays, regulator, batteries and charges). The energy storage model by ultra-capacitors is then validated by the good agreement of measured values taken in real conditions with the results provided by simulations. Finally, two examples are proposed and discussed: the determination of the storage duration of ultra-capacitors versus solar irradiance and ambient temperature, and the integration of ultra-capacitors in the electrical feeding system of a DC motor to reduce the electrical current peak of the battery at the start of the motor. (author) [fr

  13. Ultra-capacitors in power conversion systems analysis, modeling and design in theory and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Grbovic, Petar J

    2014-01-01

    Divided into five parts, this book is focused on ultra-capacitors and their applications in power conversion systems. It discusses ultra-capacitor analysis, modelling and module design from a macroscopic (application) perspective. It also describes power conversion applications, interface dc-dc converter design and entire conversion system design. Part One covers the background of energy storage technologies, with particular attention on state-of-the-art ultra-capacitor energy storage technologies. In Chapter four of this part, power conversion systems with integrated energy storage is discus

  14. A Thermal Runaway Failure Model for Low-Voltage BME Ceramic Capacitors with Defects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teverovsky, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    Reliability of base metal electrode (BME) multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) that until recently were used mostly in commercial applications, have been improved substantially by using new materials and processes. Currently, the inception of intrinsic wear-out failures in high quality capacitors became much greater than the mission duration in most high-reliability applications. However, in capacitors with defects degradation processes might accelerate substantially and cause infant mortality failures. In this work, a physical model that relates the presence of defects to reduction of breakdown voltages and decreasing times to failure has been suggested. The effect of the defect size has been analyzed using a thermal runaway model of failures. Adequacy of highly accelerated life testing (HALT) to predict reliability at normal operating conditions and limitations of voltage acceleration are considered. The applicability of the model to BME capacitors with cracks is discussed and validated experimentally.

  15. A General Reliability Model for Ni-BaTiO3-Based Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Donhang

    2014-01-01

    The evaluation of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) with Ni electrode and BaTiO3 dielectric material for potential space project applications requires an in-depth understanding of their reliability. A general reliability model for Ni-BaTiO3 MLCC is developed and discussed. The model consists of three parts: a statistical distribution; an acceleration function that describes how a capacitor's reliability life responds to the external stresses, and an empirical function that defines contribution of the structural and constructional characteristics of a multilayer capacitor device, such as the number of dielectric layers N, dielectric thickness d, average grain size, and capacitor chip size A. Application examples are also discussed based on the proposed reliability model for Ni-BaTiO3 MLCCs.

  16. Physics Based Electrolytic Capacitor Degradation Models for Prognostic Studies under Thermal Overstress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose R.; Goebel, Kai; Biswas, Gautam

    2012-01-01

    Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on safety critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. This makes them good candidates for prognostics and health management research. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of components or systems based on their current state of health and their anticipated future use and operational conditions. Past experiences show that capacitors tend to degrade and fail faster under high electrical and thermal stress conditions that they are often subjected to during operations. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

  17. Modeling and fabrication of an RF MEMS variable capacitor with a fractal geometry

    KAUST Repository

    Elshurafa, Amro M.

    2013-08-16

    In this paper, we model, fabricate, and measure an electrostatically actuated MEMS variable capacitor that utilizes a fractal geometry and serpentine-like suspension arms. Explicitly, a variable capacitor that possesses a top suspended plate with a specific fractal geometry and also possesses a bottom fixed plate complementary in shape to the top plate has been fabricated in the PolyMUMPS process. An important benefit that was achieved from using the fractal geometry in designing the MEMS variable capacitor is increasing the tuning range of the variable capacitor beyond the typical ratio of 1.5. The modeling was carried out using the commercially available finite element software COMSOL to predict both the tuning range and pull-in voltage. Measurement results show that the tuning range is 2.5 at a maximum actuation voltage of 10V.

  18. Series-, Parallel-, and Inter-Connection of Solid-State Arbitrary Fractional-Order Capacitors: Theoretical Study and Experimental Verification

    KAUST Repository

    Kartci, Aslihan

    2018-02-26

    In the paper, general analytical formulas are introduced for the determination of equivalent impedance, magnitude, and phase, i.e. order, for n arbitrary fractional-order capacitors (FoCs) connected in series, parallel, and their interconnection. The approach presented helps to evaluate these relevant quantities in the fractional domain since the order of each element has a significant effect on the impedance of each FoC and their equivalent capacitance cannot be considered. Three types of solid-state fractional-order passive capacitors of different orders, using ferroelectric polymer and reduced Graphene Oxide-percolated P(VDF-TrFE-CFE) composite structures, are fabricated and characterized. Using an impedance analyzer, the behavior of the devices was found to be stable in the frequency range 0.2MHz–20MHz, with a phase angle deviation of ±4 degrees. Multiple numerical and experimental case studies are given, in particular for two and three connected FoCs. The fundamental issues of the measurement units of the FoCs connected in series and parallel are derived. A MATLAB open access source code is given in Appendix sec:append for easy calculation of the equivalent FoC magnitude and phase. The experimental results are in good agreement with the theoretical assumptions.

  19. The two-capacitor problem revisited: a mechanical harmonic oscillator model approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Keeyung

    2009-01-01

    The well-known two-capacitor problem, in which exactly half the stored energy disappears when a charged capacitor is connected to an identical capacitor, is discussed based on the mechanical harmonic oscillator model approach. In the mechanical harmonic oscillator model, it is shown first that exactly half the work done by a constant applied force is dissipated irrespective of the form of dissipation mechanism when the system comes to a new equilibrium after a constant force is abruptly applied. This model is then applied to the energy loss mechanism in the capacitor charging problem or the two-capacitor problem. This approach allows a simple explanation of the energy dissipation mechanism in these problems and shows that the dissipated energy should always be exactly half the supplied energy whether that is caused by the Joule heat or by the radiation. This paper, which provides a simple treatment of the energy dissipation mechanism in the two-capacitor problem, is suitable for all undergraduate levels

  20. Capacitor performance limitations in high power converter applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    El-Khatib, Walid Ziad; Holbøll, Joachim; Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg

    2013-01-01

    High voltage low inductance capacitors are used in converters as HVDC-links, snubber circuits and sub model (MMC) capacitances. They facilitate the possibility of large peak currents under high frequent or transient voltage applications. On the other hand, using capacitors with larger equivalent...... series inductances include the risk of transient overvoltages, with a negative effect on life time and reliability of the capacitors. These allowable limits of such current and voltage peaks are decided by the ability of the converter components, including the capacitors, to withstand them over...... the expected life time. In this paper results are described from investigations on the electrical environment of these capacitors, including all the conditions they would be exposed to, thereby trying to find the tradeoffs needed to find a suitable capacitor. Different types of capacitors with the same voltage...

  1. Modeling of capacitor charging dynamics in an energy harvesting system considering accurate electromechanical coupling effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagheri, Shahriar; Wu, Nan; Filizadeh, Shaahin

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents an iterative numerical method that accurately models an energy harvesting system charging a capacitor with piezoelectric patches. The constitutive relations of piezoelectric materials connected with an external charging circuit with a diode bridge and capacitors lead to the electromechanical coupling effect and the difficulty of deriving accurate transient mechanical response, as well as the charging progress. The proposed model is built upon the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory and takes into account the electromechanical coupling effects as well as the dynamic process of charging an external storage capacitor. The model is validated through experimental tests on a cantilever beam coated with piezoelectric patches. Several parametric studies are performed and the functionality of the model is verified. The efficiency of power harvesting system can be predicted and tuned considering variations in different design parameters. Such a model can be utilized to design robust and optimal energy harvesting system.

  2. Introduction to Time Series Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Kitagawa, Genshiro

    2010-01-01

    In time series modeling, the behavior of a certain phenomenon is expressed in relation to the past values of itself and other covariates. Since many important phenomena in statistical analysis are actually time series and the identification of conditional distribution of the phenomenon is an essential part of the statistical modeling, it is very important and useful to learn fundamental methods of time series modeling. Illustrating how to build models for time series using basic methods, "Introduction to Time Series Modeling" covers numerous time series models and the various tools f

  3. Impedance measurement and modelling of super-capacitors for railway applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammar, A.; Chabas, J. [Societe Nationale des Chemins de fer Francais (SNCF), Dir. de la Recherche, 75 - Paris (France); Coquery, G.; Lallemand, R. [Institut National de Recherche sur les Transports et leur Securite (INRETS), Lab. des Technologies Nouvelles, 94 - Arcueil (France); Rojat, G.; Venet, P. [Lyon-1 Univ. Claude Bernard, CEGELY, 69 - Villeurbanne (France)

    2004-07-01

    Railways and electrical traction systems require high power rates to achieve their operating performances. Systems of power supply based on super-capacitors should offer high power density along with good energy efficiency and expected operating safety. We investigate general behaviours of super-capacitors with two powerful methods of analysis. The first is constant charge/discharge current at high level value (500 A), the second is impedance spectroscopy which leads to the acquisition of a set of parameters that are considered sufficient to describe general properties of super-capacitor, in particular the state of health and the available energy in any operating conditions. An electrical circuit model is defined for super-capacitors based on activated carbon and organic electrolyte. It takes into account the dependence of super-capacitor to voltage and current. The mixture of data of the two methods permits to obtain a representative model for power applications. Matlab/Simulink simulations are shown to verify the validity of the model. (authors)

  4. Modelling bursty time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vajna, Szabolcs; Kertész, János; Tóth, Bálint

    2013-01-01

    Many human-related activities show power-law decaying interevent time distribution with exponents usually varying between 1 and 2. We study a simple task-queuing model, which produces bursty time series due to the non-trivial dynamics of the task list. The model is characterized by a priority distribution as an input parameter, which describes the choice procedure from the list. We give exact results on the asymptotic behaviour of the model and we show that the interevent time distribution is power-law decaying for any kind of input distributions that remain normalizable in the infinite list limit, with exponents tunable between 1 and 2. The model satisfies a scaling law between the exponents of interevent time distribution (β) and autocorrelation function (α): α + β = 2. This law is general for renewal processes with power-law decaying interevent time distribution. We conclude that slowly decaying autocorrelation function indicates long-range dependence only if the scaling law is violated. (paper)

  5. A Reliability Model for Ni-BaTiO3-Based (BME) Ceramic Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Donhang

    2014-01-01

    The evaluation of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) with base-metal electrodes (BMEs) for potential NASA space project applications requires an in-depth understanding of their reliability. The reliability of an MLCC is defined as the ability of the dielectric material to retain its insulating properties under stated environmental and operational conditions for a specified period of time t. In this presentation, a general mathematic expression of a reliability model for a BME MLCC is developed and discussed. The reliability model consists of three parts: (1) a statistical distribution that describes the individual variation of properties in a test group of samples (Weibull, log normal, normal, etc.), (2) an acceleration function that describes how a capacitors reliability responds to external stresses such as applied voltage and temperature (All units in the test group should follow the same acceleration function if they share the same failure mode, independent of individual units), and (3) the effect and contribution of the structural and constructional characteristics of a multilayer capacitor device, such as the number of dielectric layers N, dielectric thickness d, average grain size r, and capacitor chip size S. In general, a two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution model is used in the description of a BME capacitors reliability as a function of time. The acceleration function that relates a capacitors reliability to external stresses is dependent on the failure mode. Two failure modes have been identified in BME MLCCs: catastrophic and slow degradation. A catastrophic failure is characterized by a time-accelerating increase in leakage current that is mainly due to existing processing defects (voids, cracks, delamination, etc.), or the extrinsic defects. A slow degradation failure is characterized by a near-linear increase in leakage current against the stress time; this is caused by the electromigration of oxygen vacancies (intrinsic defects). The

  6. Physical Modeling of the Polyfrequency Filter-Compensating Device Based on the Capacitor-Coil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butyrin, P. A.; Gusev, G. G.; Mikheev, D. V.; Shakirzianov, F. N.

    2017-12-01

    The paper presents the results of physical modeling and experimental study of the frequency characteristics of the polyfrequency filter-compensating device (PFCD) based on a capacitor-coil. The amplitude- frequency and phase-frequency characteristics of the physical PFCD model were constructed and its equivalent parameters were identified. The feasibility of a PFCD in the form of a single technical device with high technical and economic characteristics was experimentally proven. In the paper, recommendations for practical applications of the capacitor-coil-based PFCD are made and the advantages of the device over known standard passive filter-compensating devices are evaluated.

  7. Modelling of Leakage Current Through Double Dielectric Gate Stack in Metal Oxide Semiconductor Capacitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fatimah A Noor; Mikrajuddin Abdullah; Sukirno; Khairurrijal

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we have derived analytical expression of leakage current through double barriers in Metal Oxide Semiconductor (MOS) capacitor. Initially, electron transmittance through the MOS capacitor was derived by including the coupling between the transverse and longitudinal energies. The transmittance was then employed to obtain leakage current through the double barrier. In this model, we observed the effect of electron velocity due to the coupling effect and the oxide thickness to the leakage current. The calculated results showed that the leakage current decreases as the electron velocity increases. (author)

  8. Split-phase motor running as capacitor starts motor and as capacitor run motor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yahaya Asizehi ENESI

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the input parameters of a single phase split-phase induction motor is taken to investigate and to study the output performance characteristics of capacitor start and capacitor run induction motor. The value of these input parameters are used in the design characteristics of capacitor run and capacitor start motor with each motor connected to rated or standard capacitor in series with auxiliary winding or starting winding respectively for the normal operational condition. The magnitude of capacitor that will develop maximum torque in capacitor start motor and capacitor run motor are investigated and determined by simulation. Each of these capacitors is connected to the auxiliary winding of split-phase motor thereby transforming it into capacitor start or capacitor run motor. The starting current and starting torque of the split-phase motor (SPM, capacitor run motor (CRM and capacitor star motor (CSM are compared for their suitability in their operational performance and applications.

  9. Models for dependent time series

    CERN Document Server

    Tunnicliffe Wilson, Granville; Haywood, John

    2015-01-01

    Models for Dependent Time Series addresses the issues that arise and the methodology that can be applied when the dependence between time series is described and modeled. Whether you work in the economic, physical, or life sciences, the book shows you how to draw meaningful, applicable, and statistically valid conclusions from multivariate (or vector) time series data.The first four chapters discuss the two main pillars of the subject that have been developed over the last 60 years: vector autoregressive modeling and multivariate spectral analysis. These chapters provide the foundational mater

  10. Towards A Model-Based Prognostics Methodology For Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based On Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a model-driven methodology for predict- ing the remaining useful life of electrolytic capacitors. This methodology adopts a Kalman filter...

  11. Comparative analysis of the planar capacitor and IDT piezoelectric thin-film micro-actuator models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Myers, Oliver J; Anjanappa, M; Freidhoff, Carl B

    2011-01-01

    A comparison of the analysis of similarly developed microactuators is presented. Accurate modeling and simulation techniques are vital for piezoelectrically actuated microactuators. Coupling analytical and numerical modeling techniques with variational design parameters, accurate performance predictions can be realized. Axi-symmetric two-dimensional and three-dimensional static deflection and harmonic models of a planar capacitor actuator are presented. Planar capacitor samples were modeled as unimorph diaphragms with sandwiched piezoelectric material. The harmonic frequencies were calculated numerically and compared well to predicted values and deformations. The finite element modeling reflects the impact of the d 31 piezoelectric constant. Two-dimensional axi-symmetric models of circularly interdigitated piezoelectrically membranes are also presented. The models include the piezoelectric material and properties, the membrane materials and properties, and incorporates various design considerations of the model. These models also include the electro-mechanical coupling for piezoelectric actuation and highlight a novel approach to take advantage of the higher d 33 piezoelectric coupling coefficient. Performance is evaluated for varying parameters such as electrode pitch, electrode width, and piezoelectric material thickness. The models also showed that several of the design parameters were naturally coupled. The static numerical models correlate well with the maximum static deflection of the experimental devices. Finally, this paper deals with the development of numerical harmonic models of piezoelectrically actuated planar capacitor and interdigitated diaphragms. The models were able to closely predict the first two harmonics, conservatively predict the third through sixth harmonics and predict the estimated values of center deflection using plate theory. Harmonic frequency and deflection simulations need further correlation by conducting extensive iterative

  12. Stochastic models for time series

    CERN Document Server

    Doukhan, Paul

    2018-01-01

    This book presents essential tools for modelling non-linear time series. The first part of the book describes the main standard tools of probability and statistics that directly apply to the time series context to obtain a wide range of modelling possibilities. Functional estimation and bootstrap are discussed, and stationarity is reviewed. The second part describes a number of tools from Gaussian chaos and proposes a tour of linear time series models. It goes on to address nonlinearity from polynomial or chaotic models for which explicit expansions are available, then turns to Markov and non-Markov linear models and discusses Bernoulli shifts time series models. Finally, the volume focuses on the limit theory, starting with the ergodic theorem, which is seen as the first step for statistics of time series. It defines the distributional range to obtain generic tools for limit theory under long or short-range dependences (LRD/SRD) and explains examples of LRD behaviours. More general techniques (central limit ...

  13. Study and optimization of the partial discharges in capacitor model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Page 1 ... experiments methodology for the study of such processes, in view of their modeling and optimization. The obtained result is a mathematical model capable to identify the parameters and the interactions between .... 5mn; the next landing is situated in 200 V over the voltage of partial discharges appearance and.

  14. Towards A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gautam Biswas

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model-driven methodology for predict- ing the remaining useful life of electrolytic capacitors. This methodology adopts a Kalman filter approach in conjunction with an empirical state-based degradation model to predict the degradation of capacitor parameters through the life of the capacitor. Electrolytic capacitors are important components of systems that range from power supplies on critical avion- ics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their critical role in the system, they are good candidates for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remain- ing useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. This paper proposes and empirical degradation model and discusses experimental results for an accelerated aging test performed on a set of identical capacitors subjected to electrical stress. The data forms the basis for developing the Kalman-filter based remaining life prediction algorithm.

  15. Verification test for an electric vehicle using capacitor-battery series connection for battery load levelling; Denchi no fuka heijunka no tame no kyapashita to denchi no chokuretsu setsuzoku hoshiki wo saiyoshita denki jidosha no jissho shiken

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miyaoka, K.; Takehara, J.; Kato, S. [Chugoku Electric Power Co. Inc., Hiroshima (Japan)

    1998-03-25

    For the prolongation of the distance that an electric vehicle (EV) can cover on a single charge and of the service life of the EV battery unit, a system is developed, in which the battery unit and the capacitor unit are connected in series for the levelling-off of battery peak loads, and the system is tested aboard a running real vehicle. Installed on the real vehicle is a battery unit that is a series connection of 20 12V-38Ah seal-type lead-acid batteries, each battery consisting of two cells connected in parallel. Driving the vehicle is a DC brushless motor capable of a maximum operation of 9000rpm. Also installed is a capacitor unit that is a parallel connection of 40 2.3V-1800F capacitors, each capacitor consisting of two capacitors connected in parallel. Findings are described below. In a 0-400m acceleration test, 22.5 seconds is recorded with the capacitor unit in operation, meaning an improvement of 0.7 seconds. The maximum speed remains unchanged at 110km/h, which agrees with the pre-calculated value. Although the battery peak load reduction rate in a 15-mode drive pattern marks 23%, the distances covered on a single charge in this drive pattern turn out to be almost the same whether the capacitor unit is in operation or not. 3 refs., 15 figs., 3 tabs.

  16. FOURIER SERIES MODELS THROUGH TRANSFORMATION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DEPT

    monthly temperature data (1996 – 2005) collected from the National Root ... KEY WORDS: Fourier series, square transformation, multiplicative model, ... fluctuations or movements are often periodic(Ekpeyong,2005). .... significant trend or not, if the trend is not significant, the grand mean may be used as an estimate of trend.

  17. Split-phase motor running as capacitor starts motor and as capacitor run motor

    OpenAIRE

    Yahaya Asizehi ENESI; Jacob TSADO; Mark NWOHU; Usman Abraham USMAN; Odu Ayo IMORU

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, the input parameters of a single phase split-phase induction motor is taken to investigate and to study the output performance characteristics of capacitor start and capacitor run induction motor. The value of these input parameters are used in the design characteristics of capacitor run and capacitor start motor with each motor connected to rated or standard capacitor in series with auxiliary winding or starting winding respectively for the normal operational condition. The ma...

  18. Vented Capacitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brubaker, Michael Allen; Hosking, Terry Alan

    2006-04-11

    A technique of increasing the corona inception voltage (CIV), and thereby increasing the operating voltage, of film/foil capacitors is described. Intentional venting of the capacitor encapsulation improves the corona inception voltage by allowing internal voids to equilibrate with the ambient environment.

  19. Multiple Indicator Stationary Time Series Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivo, Stephen A.

    2001-01-01

    Discusses the propriety and practical advantages of specifying multivariate time series models in the context of structural equation modeling for time series and longitudinal panel data. For time series data, the multiple indicator model specification improves on classical time series analysis. For panel data, the multiple indicator model…

  20. Design and development of repetitive capacitor charging power supply based on series-parallel resonant converter topology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Ankur; Nagesh, K V; Kolge, Tanmay; Chakravarthy, D P

    2011-04-01

    LCL resonant converter based repetitive capacitor charging power supply (CCPS) is designed and developed in the division. The LCL converter acts as a constant current source when switching frequency is equal to the resonant frequency. When both resonant inductors' values of LCL converter are same, it results in inherent zero current switching (ZCS) in switches. In this paper, ac analysis with fundamental frequency approximation of LCL resonant tank circuit, frequency dependent of current gain converter followed by design, development, simulation, and practical result is described. Effect of change in switching frequency and resonant frequency and change in resonant inductors ratio on CCPS will be discussed. An efficient CCPS of average output power of 1.2 kJ/s, output voltage 3 kV, and 300 Hz repetition rate is developed in the division. The performance of this CCPS has been evaluated in the laboratory by charging several values of load capacitance at various repetition rates. These results indicate that this design is very feasible for use in capacitor-charging applications. © 2011 American Institute of Physics

  1. Evaluation of the density of the charge trapped in organic ferroelectric capacitors based on the Mott-Schottky model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Won-Ho [Samsung Display Co. Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kwon, Jin-Hyuk; Park, Gyeong-Tae; Kim, Jae-Hyun; Bae, Jin-Hyuk [Kyungpook National University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Zhang, Xue; Park, Jae-Hoon [Hallym University, Chuncheon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-09-15

    Organic ferroelectric capacitors were fabricated using pentacene and poly (vinylidene fluoride trifluoroethylene) (PVDF-TrFE) as an organic semiconductor and a ferroelectric material, respectively. A paraelectric poly(vinyl cinnamate) layer was adopted as an interlayer between the PVDFTrFE layer and the bottom electrode. The paraelectric interlayer induced a depolarization field opposite to the direction of the polarization formed in the ferroelectric PVDF-TrFE insulator, thereby suppressing spontaneous polarization. As a result, the Mott-Schottky model could be used to evaluate, from the extracted flat-band voltages, the density of the charge trapped in the organic ferroelectric capacitors.

  2. Materials for electrochemical capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Patrice; Gogotsi, Yury

    2008-11-01

    Electrochemical capacitors, also called supercapacitors, store energy using either ion adsorption (electrochemical double layer capacitors) or fast surface redox reactions (pseudo-capacitors). They can complement or replace batteries in electrical energy storage and harvesting applications, when high power delivery or uptake is needed. A notable improvement in performance has been achieved through recent advances in understanding charge storage mechanisms and the development of advanced nanostructured materials. The discovery that ion desolvation occurs in pores smaller than the solvated ions has led to higher capacitance for electrochemical double layer capacitors using carbon electrodes with subnanometre pores, and opened the door to designing high-energy density devices using a variety of electrolytes. Combination of pseudo-capacitive nanomaterials, including oxides, nitrides and polymers, with the latest generation of nanostructured lithium electrodes has brought the energy density of electrochemical capacitors closer to that of batteries. The use of carbon nanotubes has further advanced micro-electrochemical capacitors, enabling flexible and adaptable devices to be made. Mathematical modelling and simulation will be the key to success in designing tomorrow's high-energy and high-power devices.

  3. Reduction of magnetic emission by increasing secondary side capacitor for ferrite geometry based series-series topology for wireless power transfer to vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batra, Tushar; Schaltz, Erik; Ahn, Seungyoung

    2014-01-01

    Magnetic fields emitted by wireless power transfer to vehicles can potentially affect living organisms. As a result, minimizing the magnetic emissions without compromising with the power transferred is one of the most significant challenges in the success of this technology. Active and passive...... and secondary currents from the standard design. Therefore, a part of the secondary magnetic flux comes in phase opposition with the primary flux and the resultant field is reduced. Operation point is shifted with the new design from the maximum power transfer resonance point and hence the reflected resistance...... is reduced. In order to maintain the same power level, the primary current and voltage have to increased and decreased in the same proportion. Also, the primary capacitor needs to be increased for maintaining unity input power factor in the system. The above statements are provided first with help...

  4. A Model-Based Prognostics Methodology For Electrolytic Capacitors Based On Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical...

  5. A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A remaining useful life prediction methodology for elec- trolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical...

  6. Physics Based Electrolytic Capacitor Degradation Models for Prognostic Studies under Thermal Overstress

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications rang- ing from power supplies on safety critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical...

  7. Model calibration for a soft elastomeric capacitor sensor considering slippage under fatigue cracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xiangxiong; Li, Jian; Bennett, Caroline; Collins, William; Laflamme, Simon

    2016-04-01

    A newly-developed soft elastomeric capacitor (SEC) strain sensor has shown promise in fatigue crack monitoring. The SECs exhibit high levels of ductility and hence do not break under excessive strain when the substrate cracks due to slippage or de-bonding between the sensor and epoxy. The actual strain experienced by a SEC depends on the amount of slippage, which is difficult to simulate numerically, making it challenging to accurately predict the response of a SEC near a crack. In this paper, a two-step approach is proposed to simulate the capacitance response of a SEC. First, a finite element (FE) model of a steel compact tension specimen was analyzed under cyclic loading while the cracking process was simulated based on an element removal technique. Second, a rectangular boundary was defined near the crack region. The SEC outside the boundary was assumed to have perfect bond with the specimen, while that inside the boundary was assumed to deform freely due to slippage. A second FE model was then established to simulate the response of the SEC within the boundary subject to displacements at the boundary from the first FE model. The total simulated capacitance was computed from the model results by combining the computed capacitance inside and outside the boundary. The performance of the simulation incorporating slippage was evaluated by comparing the model results with the experimental data from the test performed on a compact tension specimen. The FE model considering slippage showed results that matched the experimental findings more closely than the FE model that did not consider slippage.

  8. Electrochemical capacitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Marc A.; Liu, Kuo -Chuan; Mohr, Charles M.

    1999-10-05

    An inexpensive porous metal oxide material having high surface area, good conductivity and high specific capacitance is advantageously used in an electrochemical capacitor. The materials are formed in a sol-gel process which affords control over the properties of the resultant metal oxide materials.

  9. Switchable capacitor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rottenberg, Xavier; Jansen, Henricus V.; Tilmans, H.A.C.; Tilmans, Hendrikus; De Raedt, Walter

    2011-01-01

    A micro electromechanical switchable capacitor is disclosed, comprising a substrate, a bottom elecrode, a dielaectric layer deposited on at least part of sai bottum electrode, a conductive floating electrode deposited on at least part of said dielectric layer, an armature positioned proximate to the

  10. Switchable capacitor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rottenberg, X.; Jansen, Henricus V.; Tilmans, H.A.C.; De Raedt, W.

    2003-01-01

    A micro electromechanical switchable capacitor is disclosed, comprising a substrate, a bottom elecrode, a dielaectric layer deposited on at least part of sai bottum electrode, a conductive floating electrode deposited on at least part of said dielectric layer, an armature positioned proximate to the

  11. Rotary capacitor

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN PhotoLab

    1971-01-01

    The rotating wheel of the rotary capacitor representing the most critical part of the new radio-frequency system of the synchro-cyclotron. The three rows of teeth on the circumference of the wheel pass between four rows of stator blades with a minimum clearance of 1 mm at a velocity of 1700 rev/min.

  12. Modelling and control of three-phase grid-connected power supply with small DC-link capacitor for electrolysers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Török, Lajos; Máthé, Lászlo; Nielsen, Carsten Karup

    2016-01-01

    These days electrolyzers are becoming more and more interesting due to the high demand for energy storage in form of hydrogen for renewable power generation using fuel cells. The design of a power supply for such a system is complex especially when the DC-link capacitance is reduced....... By substituting the complex switching model of the power supply with a simplified one, the system dynamics can be better observed. The resonances caused by the small DC link capacitor and grid side inductance can be easier analyzed. A feed forward compensation method is proposed based on the simplified model......-forward compensation signal is created, canceling in such a way the resonance introduced by the grid inductance and the DC-link capacitor from the feed-forward loop. The theoretical work has been validated through experiments on a 5 kW DC power supply used for electrolyser application....

  13. Series-, Parallel-, and Inter-Connection of Solid-State Arbitrary Fractional-Order Capacitors: Theoretical Study and Experimental Verification

    KAUST Repository

    Kartci, Aslihan; Agambayev, Agamyrat; Herencsar, Norbert; Salama, Khaled N.

    2018-01-01

    units of the FoCs connected in series and parallel are derived. A MATLAB open access source code is given in Appendix sec:append for easy calculation of the equivalent FoC magnitude and phase. The experimental results are in good agreement

  14. Lag space estimation in time series modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goutte, Cyril

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to investigate some techniques for finding the relevant lag-space, i.e. input information, for time series modelling. This is an important aspect of time series modelling, as it conditions the design of the model through the regressor vector a.k.a. the input layer...

  15. Capacitance-voltage characterization of fully silicided gated MOS capacitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Baomin; Ru Guoping; Jiang Yulong; Qu Xinping; Li Bingzong; Liu Ran

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the capacitance-voltage (C-V) measurement on fully silicided (FUSI) gated metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) capacitors and the applicability of MOS capacitor models. When the oxide leakage current of an MOS capacitor is large, two-element parallel or series model cannot be used to obtain its real C-V characteristic. A three-element model simultaneously consisting of parallel conductance and series resistance or a four-element model with further consideration of a series inductance should be used. We employed the three-element and the four-element models with the help of two-frequency technique to measure the Ni FUSI gated MOS capacitors. The results indicate that the capacitance of the MOS capacitors extracted by the three-element model still shows some frequency dispersion, while that extracted by the four-element model is close to the real capacitance, showing little frequency dispersion. The obtained capacitance can be used to calculate the dielectric thickness with quantum effect correction by NCSU C-V program. We also investigated the influence of MOS capacitor's area on the measurement accuracy. The results indicate that the decrease of capacitor area can reduce the dissipation factor and improve the measurement accuracy. As a result, the frequency dispersion of the measured capacitance is significantly reduced, and real C-V characteristic can be obtained directly by the series model. In addition, this paper investigates the quasi-static C-V measurement and the photonic high-frequency C-V measurement on Ni FUSI metal gated MOS capacitor with a thin leaky oxide. The results indicate that the large tunneling current through the gate oxide significantly perturbs the accurate measurement of the displacement current, which is essential for the quasi-static C-V measurement. On the other hand, the photonic high-frequency C-V measurement can bypass the leakage problem, and get reliable low-frequency C-V characteristic, which can be used to

  16. ADAPTIVE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF THERMAL PROCESSES IN A COSINE POWER CAPACITOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. I. Zalizny

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The existing protection and diagnostics systems are unable to detect the power capacitor abnormal heating caused by the development of its malfunctions. A diagnosis technique is presented that provides discovering such a heating at its early manifestation. The technique includes algorithms and an apparatus component in a form of a digital device, and it is based on continuous measuring of a capacitor body surface temperature, ambient temperature, voltages and currents from the power source. On the basis of measured values the active power losses in the capacitor and the temperature of the hottest point of its dielectric were calculated. Thereafter, the calculated average daily values of the temperature was analyzed, and, should the tendency of permanent increase of these values is detected, the diagnosis alarms of danger levels of abnormal heating are formed, viz. a low level, an average level, a high level and a very high level. The presented algorithms have been developed heuristically. Their final formation is possible only after years of operation of the proposed diagnosis system applied to the real objects. Because of application of the diagnosis system the probability of capacitor units’ failure will be lower and thus the dependability of the power supply may be higher. The implementation of the developed system will reduce the probability of sudden failure of capacitor units, and, correspondingly, will increase the reliability of the electricity supply system of an enterprise.

  17. Modeling of Structure Effect for Ferroelectric Capacitor Based on Poly(vinylidene fluoride-trifluoroethylene Ultrathin Films

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Li

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The characteristics of ferroelectric capacitors with poly(vinylidene fluoride-trifluoroethlene (P(VDF-TrFE films have been studied at different structures of cell electrodes. It is suggested that the effect of electrode structures could induce changes of performance. Remarkably, cells with line electrodes display a better polarization and fatigue resistance than those with flat electrodes. For P(VDF-TrFE ultrathin films with different electrode structures, the models of charge compensation mechanism for depolarization field and domain fatigue decomposition are used to explain the effect of electrode structure. Furthermore, the driving voltage based on normal speed-functionality is designed, and the testing results show that the line electrode structure could induce a robust switching, which is determined by the free charges concentration in active layer. These findings provide an effective route to design the optimum structure for a ferroelectric capacitor based on P(VDF-TrFE copolymer ultrathin film.

  18. Modeling Electric Double-Layer Capacitors Using Charge Variation Methodology in Gibbs Ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ganeshprasad Pavaskar

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Supercapacitors deliver higher power than batteries and find applications in grid integration and electric vehicles. Recent work by Chmiola et al. (2006 has revealed unexpected increase in the capacitance of porous carbon electrodes using ionic liquids as electrolytes. The work has generated curiosity among both experimentalists and theoreticians. Here, we have performed molecular simulations using a recently developed technique (Punnathanam, 2014 for simulating supercapacitor system. In this technique, the two electrodes (containing electrolyte in slit pore are simulated in two different boxes using the Gibbs ensemble methodology. This reduces the number of particles required and interfacial interactions, which helps in reducing computational load. The method simulates an electric double-layer capacitor (EDLC with macroscopic electrodes with much smaller system sizes. In addition, the charges on individual electrode atoms are allowed to vary in response to movement of electrolyte ions (i.e., electrode is polarizable while ensuring these atoms are at the same electric potential. We also present the application of our technique on EDLCs with the electrodes modeled as slit pores and as complex three-dimensional pore networks for different electrolyte geometries. The smallest pore geometry showed an increase in capacitance toward the potential of 0 charge. This is in agreement with the new understanding of the electrical double layer in regions of dense ionic packing, as noted by Kornyshev’s theoretical model (Kornyshev, 2007, which also showed a similar trend. This is not addressed by the classical Gouy–Chapman theory for the electric double layer. Furthermore, the electrode polarizability simulated in the model improved the accuracy of the calculated capacitance. However, its addition did not significantly alter the capacitance values in the voltage range considered.

  19. The Effects of Self-Discharge on the Performance of Symmetric Electric Double-Layer Capacitors and Active Electrolyte-Enhanced Supercapacitors: Insights from Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ike, Innocent S.; Sigalas, Iakovos; Iyuke, Sunny E.

    2017-02-01

    The effects of self-discharge on the performance of symmetric electric double-layer capacitors (EDLCs) and active electrolyte-enhanced supercapacitors were examined by incorporating self-discharge into electrochemical capacitor models during charging and discharging. The sources of self-discharge in capacitors were side reactions or redox reactions and several impurities and electric double-layer (EDL) instability. The effects of self-discharge during capacitor storage was negligible since it took a fully charged capacitor a minimum of 14.0 days to be entirely discharged by self-discharge in all conditions studied, hence self-discharge in storage condition can be ignored. The first and second charge-discharge cycle energy efficiencies η_{{{{E}}1}} and η_{{{{E}}2}} of a capacitor of electrode effective conductivity α1 = 0.05 S/cm with only EDL instability self-discharge with current density J_{{VR}} = 1.25 × 10-3 A/cm2 were 72.33% and 72.34%, respectively. Also, energy efficiencies η_{{{{E}}1}} and η_{{{{E}}2}} of a similar capacitor with both side reactions and redox reactions and EDL instability self-discharges with current densities J_{{VR}} = 0.00125 A/cm2 and J_{{{{VR}}1}} = 0.0032 A/cm2 were 38.13% and 38.14% respectively, compared with 84.24% and 84.25% in a similar capacitor without self-discharge. A capacitor with only EDL instability self-discharge and that with both side reactions and redox reactions and EDL instability self-discharge lost 9.73 Wh and 28.38 Wh of energy, respectively, through self-discharge during charging and discharging. Hence, EDLCs charging and discharging time is significantly dependent on the self-discharge rate which are too large to be ignored.

  20. Time series modeling, computation, and inference

    CERN Document Server

    Prado, Raquel

    2010-01-01

    The authors systematically develop a state-of-the-art analysis and modeling of time series. … this book is well organized and well written. The authors present various statistical models for engineers to solve problems in time series analysis. Readers no doubt will learn state-of-the-art techniques from this book.-Hsun-Hsien Chang, Computing Reviews, March 2012My favorite chapters were on dynamic linear models and vector AR and vector ARMA models.-William Seaver, Technometrics, August 2011… a very modern entry to the field of time-series modelling, with a rich reference list of the current lit

  1. A 800 kV compact peaking capacitor for nanosecond generator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Wei; Chen, Zhiqiang; Tang, Junping; Chen, Weiqing; Guo, Fan; Sun, Fengrong; Li, Junna; Qiu, Aici

    2014-09-01

    An extremely compact high voltage peaking capacitor is developed. The capacitor has a pancake structure with a diameter of 315 mm, a thickness of 59 mm, and a mass of 6.1 kg. The novel structural design endows the capacitor with a better mechanical stability and reliability under hundreds of kilovolts pulse voltage and an inner gas pressure of more than 1.5 MPa. The theoretical value of the capacitor self-inductance is near to 17 nH. Proved by series of electrical experiments, the capacitor can endure a high-voltage pulse with a rise time of about 20 ns, a half-width duration of around 25 ns, and an amplitude of up to 800 kV in a single shot model. When the capacitor was used in an electromagnetic pulse simulator as a peaking capacitor, the rise time of the voltage pulse can be reduced from 20 ns to less than 3 ns. The practical value of the capacitor's inductance deduced from the experimental date is no more than 25 nH.

  2. On the impedance modeling of switched capacitor converters with arbitrary output nodes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delos Ayllon, J.; Hendrix, M.A.M.; Lomonova, E.; Alarcon-Cot, E.; Lopez, T.

    2013-01-01

    Demand for high power density and miniaturization are pushing the application limits of Switched Capacitor Converters (SCCs) to new areas. Their benefit has up to now been used only in low power application ICs such as memories, or mobile phone backlighting where efficiency is not critical and

  3. A novel variational method for deriving Lagrangian and Hamiltonian models of inductor-capacitor circuits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moreau, L.; Aeyels, D.

    2004-01-01

    We study the dynamical equations of nonlinear inductor-capacitor circuits. We present a novel Lagrangian description of the dynamics and provide a variational interpretation, which is based on the maximum principle of optimal control theory. This gives rise to an alternative method for deriving the

  4. Modelling conditional heteroscedasticity in nonstationary series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cizek, P.; Cizek, P.; Härdle, W.K.; Weron, R.

    2011-01-01

    A vast amount of econometrical and statistical research deals with modeling financial time series and their volatility, which measures the dispersion of a series at a point in time (i.e., conditional variance). Although financial markets have been experiencing many shorter and longer periods of

  5. A Two-terminal Active Capacitor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Haoran; Wang, Huai

    2017-01-01

    This letter proposes a concept of two-terminal active capacitor implemented by power semiconductor switches and passive elements. The active capacitor has the same level of convenience as a passive one with two power terminals only. It is application independent and can be specified by rated...... voltage, ripple current, equivalent series resistance, and operational frequency range. The concept, control method, self-power scheme, and impedance characteristics of the active capacitor are presented. A case study of the proposed active capacitor for a capacitive DC-link application is discussed....... The results reveal a significantly lower overall energy storage of passive elements and a reduced cost to fulfill a specific reliability target, compared to a passive capacitor solution. Proof-of-concept experimental results are given to verify the functionality of the proposed capacitor....

  6. Multilayer capacitors, method for making multilayer capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Beihai; Balachandran, Uthamalingam

    2018-03-06

    The invention provides a stacked capacitor configuration comprising subunits each with a thickness of as low as 20 microns. Also provided is combination capacitor and printed wire board wherein the capacitor is encapsulated by the wire board. The invented capacitors are applicable in micro-electronic applications and high power applications, whether it is AC to DC or DC to AC, or DC to DC.

  7. Modeling seasonality in bimonthly time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractA recurring issue in modeling seasonal time series variables is the choice of the most adequate model for the seasonal movements. One selection method for quarterly data is proposed in Hylleberg et al. (1990). Market response models are often constructed for bimonthly variables, and

  8. ASYMMETRICAL CAPACITOR: EXPERIMENTS AND MODELING CONDENSADOR ASIMÉTRICO: EXPERIMENTOS Y MODELADO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josué Rincón

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This research article describes experiments using several Asymmetrical Capacitors prototypes (AsC with the objective to reproduce this unusual physical phenomenon, as well as to show its exceptional characteristics. Some results are published for the first time. The operating voltage was increased up to 31kV using a DC generator. The AsC levitated in every experiment, simultaneously generating a gas current from the lowest superficial area electrode. Although this phenomenon has been known for over one century, its scientific basis remains unknown and there isn't a model that properly explains its behavior under different conditions. It was proved that it works as a conventional electrostatic separator because it eliminated solid particles from a gas sample either confined in a container or flowing, with the advantage of low energy requirements. In the same way, at operating conditions, it produces ozone in a controlled way, as in the corona effect.El presente artículo de investigación describe experimentos realizados utilizando prototipos de condensadores asimétricos (CAs, con el fin de reproducir este inusual fenómeno físico y mostrar algunas de sus excepcionales características. Algunos resultados aparecen por primera vez en la literatura. Se utilizó un generador de 31kV CC y se observó que en todos los casos el CAs levitó, generándose simultáneamente una corriente de gases en el electrodo de menor área superficial. Aunque este fenómeno se conoce hace más de un siglo, su fundamento científico es aún desconocido y no hay un modelo que explique satisfactoriamente su comportamiento a diferentes condiciones experimentales. Se comprobó que opera en forma equivalente a un separador electrostático convencional eliminando partículas sólidas de un gas encerrado en un recipiente o en flujo, con la ventaja de un bajo consumo de energía eléctrica. Igualmente, a las condiciones de operación, produce ozono de forma controlada

  9. Frequency dispersion analysis of thin dielectric MOS capacitor in a five-element model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xizhen; Zhang, Sujuan; Zhu, Huichao; Pan, Xiuyu; Cheng, Chuanhui; Yu, Tao; Li, Xiangping; Cheng, Yi; Xing, Guichao; Zhang, Daming; Luo, Xixian; Chen, Baojiu

    2018-02-01

    An Al/ZrO2/IL/n-Si (IL: interface layer) MOS capacitor has been fabricated by metal organic decomposition of ZrO2 and thermal deposition Al. We have measured parallel capacitance (C m) and parallel resistance (R m) versus bias voltage curves (C m, R m-V) at different AC signal frequency (f), and C m, R m-f curves at different bias voltage. The curves of C m, R m-f measurements show obvious frequency dispersion in the range of 100 kHz-2 MHz. The energy band profile shows that a large voltage is applied on the ZrO2 layer and IL at accumulation, which suggests possible dielectric polarization processes by some traps in ZrO2 and IL. C m, R m-f data are used for frequency dispersion analysis. To exclude external frequency dispersion, we have extracted the parameters of C (real MOS capacitance), R p (parallel resistance), C IL (IL capacitance), R IL (IL resistance) and R s (Si resistance) in a five-element model by using a three-frequency method. We have analyzed intrinsic frequency dispersion of C, R p, C IL, R IL and R s by studying the dielectric characteristics and Si surface layer characteristics. At accumulation, the dispersion of C and R p is attributed to dielectric polarization such as dipolar orientation and oxide traps. The serious dispersion of C IL and R IL are relative to other dielectric polarization, such as border traps and fixed oxide traps. The dispersion of R s is mainly attributed to contact capacitance (C c) and contact resistance (R c). At depletion and inversion, the frequency dispersion of C, R p, C IL, R IL, and R s are mainly attributed to the depletion layer capacitance (C D). The interface trap capacitance (C it) and interface trap resistance (R it) are not dominant for the dispersion of C, R p, C IL, R IL, and R s.

  10. Equivalent distributed capacitance model of oxide traps on frequency dispersion of C-V curve for MOS capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Han-Han; Xu, Jing-Ping; Liu, Lu; Lai, Pui-To; Tang, Wing-Man

    2016-11-01

    An equivalent distributed capacitance model is established by considering only the gate oxide-trap capacitance to explain the frequency dispersion in the C-V curve of MOS capacitors measured for a frequency range from 1 kHz to 1 MHz. The proposed model is based on the Fermi-Dirac statistics and the charging/discharging effects of the oxide traps induced by a small ac signal. The validity of the proposed model is confirmed by the good agreement between the simulated results and experimental data. Simulations indicate that the capacitance dispersion of an MOS capacitor under accumulation and near flatband is mainly caused by traps adjacent to the oxide/semiconductor interface, with negligible effects from the traps far from the interface, and the relevant distance from the interface at which the traps can still contribute to the gate capacitance is also discussed. In addition, by excluding the negligible effect of oxide-trap conductance, the model avoids the use of imaginary numbers and complex calculations, and thus is simple and intuitive. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61176100 and 61274112), the University Development Fund of the University of Hong Kong, China (Grant No. 00600009), and the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, China (Grant No. 1-ZVB1).

  11. Equivalent distributed capacitance model of oxide traps on frequency dispersion of C – V curve for MOS capacitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Han-Han; Xu Jing-Ping; Liu Lu; Lai Pui-To; Tang Wing-Man

    2016-01-01

    An equivalent distributed capacitance model is established by considering only the gate oxide-trap capacitance to explain the frequency dispersion in the C – V curve of MOS capacitors measured for a frequency range from 1 kHz to 1 MHz. The proposed model is based on the Fermi–Dirac statistics and the charging/discharging effects of the oxide traps induced by a small ac signal. The validity of the proposed model is confirmed by the good agreement between the simulated results and experimental data. Simulations indicate that the capacitance dispersion of an MOS capacitor under accumulation and near flatband is mainly caused by traps adjacent to the oxide/semiconductor interface, with negligible effects from the traps far from the interface, and the relevant distance from the interface at which the traps can still contribute to the gate capacitance is also discussed. In addition, by excluding the negligible effect of oxide-trap conductance, the model avoids the use of imaginary numbers and complex calculations, and thus is simple and intuitive. (paper)

  12. Modeling of Volatility with Non-linear Time Series Model

    OpenAIRE

    Kim Song Yon; Kim Mun Chol

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH (Asymmetric Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) error term and its parameter estimation is studied.

  13. Bootstrapping a time series model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, M.S.

    1984-01-01

    The bootstrap is a methodology for estimating standard errors. The idea is to use a Monte Carlo simulation experiment based on a nonparametric estimate of the error distribution. The main objective of this dissertation was to demonstrate the use of the bootstrap to attach standard errors to coefficient estimates and multi-period forecasts in a second-order autoregressive model fitted by least squares and maximum likelihood estimation. A secondary objective of this article was to present the bootstrap in the context of two econometric equations describing the unemployment rate and individual income tax in the state of Oklahoma. As it turns out, the conventional asymptotic formulae (both the least squares and maximum likelihood estimates) for estimating standard errors appear to overestimate the true standard errors. But there are two problems: 1) the first two observations y 1 and y 2 have been fixed, and 2) the residuals have not been inflated. After these two factors are considered in the trial and bootstrap experiment, both the conventional maximum likelihood and bootstrap estimates of the standard errors appear to be performing quite well. At present, there does not seem to be a good rule of thumb for deciding when the conventional asymptotic formulae will give acceptable results

  14. Time series modeling in traffic safety research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavrenz, Steven M; Vlahogianni, Eleni I; Gkritza, Konstantina; Ke, Yue

    2018-08-01

    The use of statistical models for analyzing traffic safety (crash) data has been well-established. However, time series techniques have traditionally been underrepresented in the corresponding literature, due to challenges in data collection, along with a limited knowledge of proper methodology. In recent years, new types of high-resolution traffic safety data, especially in measuring driver behavior, have made time series modeling techniques an increasingly salient topic of study. Yet there remains a dearth of information to guide analysts in their use. This paper provides an overview of the state of the art in using time series models in traffic safety research, and discusses some of the fundamental techniques and considerations in classic time series modeling. It also presents ongoing and future opportunities for expanding the use of time series models, and explores newer modeling techniques, including computational intelligence models, which hold promise in effectively handling ever-larger data sets. The information contained herein is meant to guide safety researchers in understanding this broad area of transportation data analysis, and provide a framework for understanding safety trends that can influence policy-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Numerical simulations to model laser-driven coil-capacitor targets for generation of kilo-Tesla magnetic fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Schillaci

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A coil-capacitor target is modeled using FEM simulations and analytical calculations, which allow to explain the time evolution of such complex target during magnetic field production driven by the flow of an extremely high current generated through the interaction with a high power laser. The numerical model includes a detailed study of the magnetic field produced by the coil-capacitor target, both in the static and transient cases, as well as magnetic force and Joule heating. The model is validated by experimental data reported in literature and can be of interest for several applications. As an example, the combination of two synchronized nanosecond lasers with the purpose of producing a plasma responsible of the proton-boron (p+ + 11B → 8.5 MeV + 3α fusion reaction, and energizing two multi-turn coils with the main purpose of confining such a plasma could enhance the reaction rate. The preliminary conceptual design of a magnetic mirror configuration to be used for confining protons and boron ions up to a few MeV/u in a region of less than 1 mm2 is briefly reported.

  16. Numerical simulations to model laser-driven coil-capacitor targets for generation of kilo-Tesla magnetic fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schillaci, F.; De Marco, M.; Giuffrida, L.; Fujioka, S.; Zhang, Z.; Korn, G.; Margarone, D.

    2018-02-01

    A coil-capacitor target is modeled using FEM simulations and analytical calculations, which allow to explain the time evolution of such complex target during magnetic field production driven by the flow of an extremely high current generated through the interaction with a high power laser. The numerical model includes a detailed study of the magnetic field produced by the coil-capacitor target, both in the static and transient cases, as well as magnetic force and Joule heating. The model is validated by experimental data reported in literature and can be of interest for several applications. As an example, the combination of two synchronized nanosecond lasers with the purpose of producing a plasma responsible of the proton-boron (p+ + 11B → 8.5 MeV + 3α) fusion reaction, and energizing two multi-turn coils with the main purpose of confining such a plasma could enhance the reaction rate. The preliminary conceptual design of a magnetic mirror configuration to be used for confining protons and boron ions up to a few MeV/u in a region of less than 1 mm2 is briefly reported.

  17. Building Chaotic Model From Incomplete Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siek, Michael; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2010-05-01

    This paper presents a number of novel techniques for building a predictive chaotic model from incomplete time series. A predictive chaotic model is built by reconstructing the time-delayed phase space from observed time series and the prediction is made by a global model or adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space. In general, the building of any data-driven models depends on the completeness and quality of the data itself. However, the completeness of the data availability can not always be guaranteed since the measurement or data transmission is intermittently not working properly due to some reasons. We propose two main solutions dealing with incomplete time series: using imputing and non-imputing methods. For imputing methods, we utilized the interpolation methods (weighted sum of linear interpolations, Bayesian principle component analysis and cubic spline interpolation) and predictive models (neural network, kernel machine, chaotic model) for estimating the missing values. After imputing the missing values, the phase space reconstruction and chaotic model prediction are executed as a standard procedure. For non-imputing methods, we reconstructed the time-delayed phase space from observed time series with missing values. This reconstruction results in non-continuous trajectories. However, the local model prediction can still be made from the other dynamical neighbors reconstructed from non-missing values. We implemented and tested these methods to construct a chaotic model for predicting storm surges at Hoek van Holland as the entrance of Rotterdam Port. The hourly surge time series is available for duration of 1990-1996. For measuring the performance of the proposed methods, a synthetic time series with missing values generated by a particular random variable to the original (complete) time series is utilized. There exist two main performance measures used in this work: (1) error measures between the actual

  18. Forecasting with nonlinear time series models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper, nonlinear models are restricted to mean nonlinear parametric models. Several such models popular in time series econo- metrics are presented and some of their properties discussed. This in- cludes two models based on universal approximators: the Kolmogorov- Gabor polynomial model...... applied to economic fore- casting problems, is briefly highlighted. A number of large published studies comparing macroeconomic forecasts obtained using different time series models are discussed, and the paper also contains a small simulation study comparing recursive and direct forecasts in a partic...... and two versions of a simple artificial neural network model. Techniques for generating multi-period forecasts from nonlinear models recursively are considered, and the direct (non-recursive) method for this purpose is mentioned as well. Forecasting with com- plex dynamic systems, albeit less frequently...

  19. Evaluation of Polymer Hermetically Sealed Tantalum Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teverovsky, Alexander A.

    2014-01-01

    Polymer cathode tantalum capacitors have lower ESR (equivalent series resistance) compared to other types of tantalum capacitors and for this reason have gained popularity in the electronics design community. Their use allows improved performance of power supply systems along with substantial reduction of size and weight of the components used. However, these parts have poor thermal stability and can degrade in humid environments. Polymer hermetically sealed (PHS) capacitors avoid problems related to environmental degradation of molded case parts and can potentially replace current wet and solid hermetically sealed capacitors. In this work, PHS capacitors manufactured per DLA LAM DWG#13030 are evaluated for space applications. Several lots of capacitors manufactured over period from 2010 to 2014 were tested for the consistency of performance, electrical and thermal characteristics, highly accelerated life testing, and robustness under reverse bias and random vibration conditions. Special attention was given to analysis of leakage currents and the effect of long-term high temperature storage on capacitors in as is condition and after hermeticity loss. The results show that PHS capacitors might be especially effective for low-temperature applications or for system requiring a cold start-up. Additional screening and qualification testing have been recommended to assure the necessary quality of capacitors for space projects.

  20. Modeling vector nonlinear time series using POLYMARS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Ray, B.K.

    2003-01-01

    A modified multivariate adaptive regression splines method for modeling vector nonlinear time series is investigated. The method results in models that can capture certain types of vector self-exciting threshold autoregressive behavior, as well as provide good predictions for more general vector

  1. Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time series models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractThis paper is concerned with forecasting univariate seasonal time series data using periodic autoregressive models. We show how one should account for unit roots and deterministic terms when generating out-of-sample forecasts. We illustrate the models for various quarterly UK consumption

  2. Prediction of multiple resonance characteristics by an extended resistor-inductor-capacitor circuit model for plasmonic metamaterials absorbers in infrared.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaolun; Li, Yongqian; Wang, Binbin; Zhou, Zili

    2015-10-01

    The resonance characteristics of plasmonic metamaterials absorbers (PMAs) are strongly dependent on geometric parameters. A resistor-inductor-capacitor (RLC) circuit model has been extended to predict the resonance wavelengths and the bandwidths of multiple magnetic polaritons modes in PMAs. For a typical metallic-dielectric-metallic structure absorber working in the infrared region, the developed model describes the correlation between the resonance characteristics and the dimensional sizes. In particular, the RLC model is suitable for not only the fundamental resonance mode, but also for the second- and third-order resonance modes. The prediction of the resonance characteristics agrees fairly well with those calculated by the finite-difference time-domain simulation and the experimental results. The developed RLC model enables the facilitation of designing multi-band PMAs for infrared radiation detectors and thermal emitters.

  3. Magnetic Emissions Reduction by Varying Secondary Side Capacitor for Ferrite Geometry based Series-Parallel Topology Wireless Power Transfer to Vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batra, Tushar; Schaltz, Erik

    2014-01-01

    Magnetic fields in surroundings of wireless power transfer system depends upon the two coil currents, distance from the coils and space angle between the two coil fields in steady state conditions. Increase in value of the secondary capacitor leads to a phase shift between the two currents and as...

  4. Transient recovery voltage analysis for various current breaking mathematical models: shunt reactor and capacitor bank de-energization study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oramus Piotr

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Electric arc is a complex phenomenon occurring during the current interruption process in the power system. Therefore performing digital simulations is often necessary to analyse transient conditions in power system during switching operations. This paper deals with the electric arc modelling and its implementation in simulation software for transient analyses during switching conditions in power system. Cassie, Cassie-Mayr as well as Schwarz-Avdonin equations describing the behaviour of the electric arc during the current interruption process have been implemented in EMTP-ATP simulation software and presented in this paper. The models developed have been used for transient simulations to analyse impact of the particular model and its parameters on Transient Recovery Voltage in different switching scenarios: during shunt reactor switching-off as well as during capacitor bank current switching-off. The selected simulation cases represent typical practical scenarios for inductive and capacitive currents breaking, respectively.

  5. Switched-capacitor isolated LED driver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Seth R.; Kline, Mitchell

    2016-03-22

    A switched-capacitor voltage converter which is particularly well-suited for receiving a line voltage from which to drive current through a series of light emitting diodes (LEDs). Input voltage is rectified in a multi-level rectifier network having switched capacitors in an ascending-bank configuration for passing voltages in uniform steps between zero volts up to full received voltage V.sub.DC. A regulator section, operating on V.sub.DC, comprises switched-capacitor stages of H-bridge switching and flying capacitors. A current controlled oscillator drives the states of the switched-capacitor stages and changes its frequency to maintain a constant current to the load. Embodiments are described for isolating the load from the mains, utilizing an LC tank circuit or a multi-primary-winding transformer.

  6. On modeling panels of time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractThis paper reviews research issues in modeling panels of time series. Examples of this type of data are annually observed macroeconomic indicators for all countries in the world, daily returns on the individual stocks listed in the S&P500, and the sales records of all items in a

  7. Time Series Modelling using Proc Varmax

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milhøj, Anders

    2007-01-01

    In this paper it will be demonstrated how various time series problems could be met using Proc Varmax. The procedure is rather new and hence new features like cointegration, testing for Granger causality are included, but it also means that more traditional ARIMA modelling as outlined by Box...

  8. Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marczak, Martyna; Proietti, Tommaso

    investigate via Monte Carlo simulations how this approach performs for detecting additive outliers and level shifts in the analysis of nonstationary seasonal time series. The reference model is the basic structural model, featuring a local linear trend, possibly integrated of order two, stochastic seasonality......Structural change affects the estimation of economic signals, like the underlying growth rate or the seasonally adjusted series. An important issue, which has attracted a great deal of attention also in the seasonal adjustment literature, is its detection by an expert procedure. The general......–to–specific approach to the detection of structural change, currently implemented in Autometrics via indicator saturation, has proven to be both practical and effective in the context of stationary dynamic regression models and unit–root autoregressions. By focusing on impulse– and step–indicator saturation, we...

  9. A Cell-to-Cell Equalizer Based on Three-Resonant-State Switched-Capacitor Converters for Series-Connected Battery Strings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunlong Shang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Due to the low cost, small size, and ease of control, the switched-capacitor (SC battery equalizers are promising among active balancing methods. However, it is difficult to achieve the full cell equalization for the SC equalizers due to the inevitable voltage drops across Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor Field Effect Transistor (MOSFET switches. Moreover, when the voltage gap among cells is larger, the balancing efficiency is lower, while the balancing speed becomes slower as the voltage gap gets smaller. In order to soften these downsides, this paper proposes a cell-to-cell battery equalization topology with zero-current switching (ZCS and zero-voltage gap (ZVG among cells based on three-resonant-state SC converters. Based on the conventional inductor-capacitor (LC converter, an additional resonant path is built to release the charge of the capacitor into the inductor in each switching cycle, which lays the foundations for obtaining ZVG among cells, improves the balancing efficiency at a large voltage gap, and increases the balancing speed at a small voltage gap. A four-lithium-ion-cell prototype is applied to validate the theoretical analysis. Experiment results demonstrate that the proposed topology has good equalization performances with fast equalization, ZCS, and ZVG among cells.

  10. Modeling Non-Gaussian Time Series with Nonparametric Bayesian Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhiguang; MacEachern, Steven; Xu, Xinyi

    2015-02-01

    We present a class of Bayesian copula models whose major components are the marginal (limiting) distribution of a stationary time series and the internal dynamics of the series. We argue that these are the two features with which an analyst is typically most familiar, and hence that these are natural components with which to work. For the marginal distribution, we use a nonparametric Bayesian prior distribution along with a cdf-inverse cdf transformation to obtain large support. For the internal dynamics, we rely on the traditionally successful techniques of normal-theory time series. Coupling the two components gives us a family of (Gaussian) copula transformed autoregressive models. The models provide coherent adjustments of time scales and are compatible with many extensions, including changes in volatility of the series. We describe basic properties of the models, show their ability to recover non-Gaussian marginal distributions, and use a GARCH modification of the basic model to analyze stock index return series. The models are found to provide better fit and improved short-range and long-range predictions than Gaussian competitors. The models are extensible to a large variety of fields, including continuous time models, spatial models, models for multiple series, models driven by external covariate streams, and non-stationary models.

  11. Estimating High-Dimensional Time Series Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medeiros, Marcelo C.; Mendes, Eduardo F.

    We study the asymptotic properties of the Adaptive LASSO (adaLASSO) in sparse, high-dimensional, linear time-series models. We assume both the number of covariates in the model and candidate variables can increase with the number of observations and the number of candidate variables is, possibly......, larger than the number of observations. We show the adaLASSO consistently chooses the relevant variables as the number of observations increases (model selection consistency), and has the oracle property, even when the errors are non-Gaussian and conditionally heteroskedastic. A simulation study shows...

  12. Capacitor current feedback for output filter damping in switched-mode magnet power supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paven Kumar, M.R.; Kim, J.M.S.

    1994-01-01

    In magnet power supplies for a particle accelerator system, a second-order low-pass filter is used to reduce the output current ripple content within specifications. The output filter must be properly damped in order to avoid any large amplification at the resonant frequency and large transient responses of voltages and currents at the step change of the line voltage. Conventionally, a series combination of resistance and capacitance is added in parallel with the filter capacitor to provide the required damping. This approach, however, requires a large dc-blocking capacitor which has to be several times larger than the filter capacitor. In this paper, a filter damping technique using capacitor current feedback is presented. The basic concept of the capacitor current feedback is established using a linear model of the converter involved, and then a sampled-data model of the converter is used to analyze the filter damping technique. The filter damping effect of the capacitor current feedback is verified experimentally

  13. From Taylor series to Taylor models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berz, Martin

    1997-01-01

    An overview of the background of Taylor series methods and the utilization of the differential algebraic structure is given, and various associated techniques are reviewed. The conventional Taylor methods are extended to allow for a rigorous treatment of bounds for the remainder of the expansion in a similarly universal way. Utilizing differential algebraic and functional analytic arguments on the set of Taylor models, arbitrary order integrators with rigorous remainder treatment are developed. The integrators can meet pre-specified accuracy requirements in a mathematically strict way, and are a stepping stone towards fully rigorous estimates of stability of repetitive systems

  14. From Taylor series to Taylor models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berz, M.

    1997-01-01

    An overview of the background of Taylor series methods and the utilization of the differential algebraic structure is given, and various associated techniques are reviewed. The conventional Taylor methods are extended to allow for a rigorous treatment of bounds for the remainder of the expansion in a similarly universal way. Utilizing differential algebraic and functional analytic arguments on the set of Taylor models, arbitrary order integrators with rigorous remainder treatment are developed. The integrators can meet pre-specified accuracy requirements in a mathematically strict way, and are a stepping stone towards fully rigorous estimates of stability of repetitive systems. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

  15. Towards A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A remaining useful life prediction methodology for elec- trolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology adopts a Kalman filter approach in conjunction with an...

  16. Time series modeling for syndromic surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mandl Kenneth D

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Emergency department (ED based syndromic surveillance systems identify abnormally high visit rates that may be an early signal of a bioterrorist attack. For example, an anthrax outbreak might first be detectable as an unusual increase in the number of patients reporting to the ED with respiratory symptoms. Reliably identifying these abnormal visit patterns requires a good understanding of the normal patterns of healthcare usage. Unfortunately, systematic methods for determining the expected number of (ED visits on a particular day have not yet been well established. We present here a generalized methodology for developing models of expected ED visit rates. Methods Using time-series methods, we developed robust models of ED utilization for the purpose of defining expected visit rates. The models were based on nearly a decade of historical data at a major metropolitan academic, tertiary care pediatric emergency department. The historical data were fit using trimmed-mean seasonal models, and additional models were fit with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA residuals to account for recent trends in the data. The detection capabilities of the model were tested with simulated outbreaks. Results Models were built both for overall visits and for respiratory-related visits, classified according to the chief complaint recorded at the beginning of each visit. The mean absolute percentage error of the ARIMA models was 9.37% for overall visits and 27.54% for respiratory visits. A simple detection system based on the ARIMA model of overall visits was able to detect 7-day-long simulated outbreaks of 30 visits per day with 100% sensitivity and 97% specificity. Sensitivity decreased with outbreak size, dropping to 94% for outbreaks of 20 visits per day, and 57% for 10 visits per day, all while maintaining a 97% benchmark specificity. Conclusions Time series methods applied to historical ED utilization data are an important tool

  17. Nanohybrid capacitor: the next generation electrochemical capacitors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naoi, K. [Institute of Symbiotic Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, 2-24-16 Naka-cho, Koganei, Tokyo 184-8558 (Japan)

    2010-10-15

    Conventional electric double layer capacitors (EDLC) designed with two symmetrical activated carbon electrodes can deliver substantially more power than similar size Li-ion batteries. There is presently a major effort to increase the energy density of EDLC s up to a target value in the vicinity of 20-30 Wh kg{sup -1}.The present review article deals with the recent contributions to get this high energy density and new approaches that have been made to increase the withstanding voltage of the EDLCs. Important alternative approach to meet this goal that is under serious investigation is to develop an asymmetric (hybrid) capacitors. Hybrid capacitor systems are the promising approach to meet the goal to effectively increase the energy density. The investigation is to develop hybrid capacitors has been initiated by Li-ion capacitors. And, now Nanohybrid capacitor certainly achieves as high energy density as Li-ion capacitors with higher stability, higher safety and higher productivity. This is the new lithium-ion based hybrid capacitor using the lithium titanate (Li{sub 4}Ti{sub 5}O{sub 12}) negative intercalation electrode that can operate at unusually high current densities. The high-rate Li{sub 4}Ti{sub 5}O{sub 12} negative electrode has a unique nano-structure consisting of unusually small nano-crystalline Li{sub 4}Ti{sub 5}O{sub 12} nucleated and grafted onto carbon nano-fiber anchors (nc-Li{sub 4}Ti{sub 5}O{sub 12}/CNF). (Abstract Copyright [2010], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

  18. Development of a model for the aging of double-layer capacitors; Entwicklung eines Modells zur Alterung von Doppelschichtkondensatoren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melzer, Michael [TU Dresden (Germany). Professur Elektrische Bahnen

    2012-05-15

    In past years, energy stores based on double-layer capacitors have been increasingly tested and used on rolling stock. The reasons for using energy stores are the recuperation of the braking work, the reduction of emissions related therewith, and the possibility of doing without overhead line installations in sensitive areas. In order to be able to assess the efficiency of such a system, it is necessary to estimate its expected service life, which is the subject matter of this paper. Examined is the dynamic influence of temperature and cell voltage on the ageing process. (orig.)

  19. Fisher information framework for time series modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatesan, R. C.; Plastino, A.

    2017-08-01

    A robust prediction model invoking the Takens embedding theorem, whose working hypothesis is obtained via an inference procedure based on the minimum Fisher information principle, is presented. The coefficients of the ansatz, central to the working hypothesis satisfy a time independent Schrödinger-like equation in a vector setting. The inference of (i) the probability density function of the coefficients of the working hypothesis and (ii) the establishing of constraint driven pseudo-inverse condition for the modeling phase of the prediction scheme, is made, for the case of normal distributions, with the aid of the quantum mechanical virial theorem. The well-known reciprocity relations and the associated Legendre transform structure for the Fisher information measure (FIM, hereafter)-based model in a vector setting (with least square constraints) are self-consistently derived. These relations are demonstrated to yield an intriguing form of the FIM for the modeling phase, which defines the working hypothesis, solely in terms of the observed data. Cases for prediction employing time series' obtained from the: (i) the Mackey-Glass delay-differential equation, (ii) one ECG signal from the MIT-Beth Israel Deaconess Hospital (MIT-BIH) cardiac arrhythmia database, and (iii) one ECG signal from the Creighton University ventricular tachyarrhythmia database. The ECG samples were obtained from the Physionet online repository. These examples demonstrate the efficiency of the prediction model. Numerical examples for exemplary cases are provided.

  20. Vector bilinear autoregressive time series model and its superiority ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this research, a vector bilinear autoregressive time series model was proposed and used to model three revenue series (X1, X2, X3) . The “orders” of the three series were identified on the basis of the distribution of autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions and were used to construct the vector bilinear models.

  1. Two-Capacitor Problem: A More Realistic View.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, R. A.

    1979-01-01

    Discusses the two-capacitor problem by considering the self-inductance of the circuit used and by determining how well the usual series RC circuit approximates the two-capacitor problem when realistic values of L, C, and R are chosen. (GA)

  2. Foundations of Sequence-to-Sequence Modeling for Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Kuznetsov, Vitaly; Mariet, Zelda

    2018-01-01

    The availability of large amounts of time series data, paired with the performance of deep-learning algorithms on a broad class of problems, has recently led to significant interest in the use of sequence-to-sequence models for time series forecasting. We provide the first theoretical analysis of this time series forecasting framework. We include a comparison of sequence-to-sequence modeling to classical time series models, and as such our theory can serve as a quantitative guide for practiti...

  3. Neural Network Models for Time Series Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Tim Hill; Marcus O'Connor; William Remus

    1996-01-01

    Neural networks have been advocated as an alternative to traditional statistical forecasting methods. In the present experiment, time series forecasts produced by neural networks are compared with forecasts from six statistical time series methods generated in a major forecasting competition (Makridakis et al. [Makridakis, S., A. Anderson, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen, R. Winkler. 1982. The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a ...

  4. Microstrip Resonator for High Field MRI with Capacitor-Segmented Strip and Ground Plane

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhurbenko, Vitaliy; Boer, Vincent; Petersen, Esben Thade

    2017-01-01

    ) segmenting stripe and ground plane of the resonator with series capacitors. The design equations for capacitors providing symmetric current distribution are derived. The performance of two types of segmented resonators are investigated experimentally. To authors’ knowledge, a microstrip resonator, where both......, strip and ground plane are capacitor-segmented, is shown here for the first time....

  5. Faraday Rotator 5 kV Capacitor Bank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fetterman, C.C.

    1975-01-01

    A Faraday rotator 5 kV capacitor bank is a pulsed output power supply used to energize Faraday rotators for optical isolation in the ''LLL kJ Glass Laser System.'' Each supply contains either one, two or three parallel 240 μF storage capacitors depending on the size of the isolator used. Generally, the ''A*''(216 μH) isolator is energized with one capacitor, the ''A''(116 μH) isolator uses two capacitors and the ''B''(87 μH) isolator requires three capacitors. All models of isolators have been tested with four capacitors under maximum voltage and 25 feet of RG-217 cable with no hazardous effects. Except for the number of capacitors in each unit, the supplies are otherwise physically identical

  6. Modeling Time Series Data for Supervised Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baydogan, Mustafa Gokce

    2012-01-01

    Temporal data are increasingly prevalent and important in analytics. Time series (TS) data are chronological sequences of observations and an important class of temporal data. Fields such as medicine, finance, learning science and multimedia naturally generate TS data. Each series provide a high-dimensional data vector that challenges the learning…

  7. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS USING A UNIQUE MODEL OF TRANSFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available REFII1 model is an authorial mathematical model for time series data mining. The main purpose of that model is to automate time series analysis, through a unique transformation model of time series. An advantage of this approach of time series analysis is the linkage of different methods for time series analysis, linking traditional data mining tools in time series, and constructing new algorithms for analyzing time series. It is worth mentioning that REFII model is not a closed system, which means that we have a finite set of methods. At first, this is a model for transformation of values of time series, which prepares data used by different sets of methods based on the same model of transformation in a domain of problem space. REFII model gives a new approach in time series analysis based on a unique model of transformation, which is a base for all kind of time series analysis. The advantage of REFII model is its possible application in many different areas such as finance, medicine, voice recognition, face recognition and text mining.

  8. Capacitors and Resistance-Capacitance Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balabanian, Norman; Root, Augustin A.

    This programed textbook was developed under a contract with the United States Office of Education as Number 5 in a series of materials for use in an electrical engineering sequence. It is divided into three parts--(1) capacitors, (2) voltage-current relationships, and (3) simple resistance-capacitance networks. (DH)

  9. Capacitor discharge engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Früngel, Frank B A

    1976-01-01

    High Speed Pulse Technology, Volume III: Capacitor Discharge Engineering covers the production and practical application of capacitor dischargers for the generation and utilization of high speed pulsed of energy in different forms. This nine-chapter volume discusses the principles of electric current, voltage, X-rays, gamma rays, heat, beams of electrons, neutrons and ions, magnetic fields, sound, and shock waves in gases and liquids. Considerable chapters consider the applications of capacitor discharges, such as impulse hardening of steel, ultrapulse welding of precision parts, X-ray flash t

  10. Hidden Markov Models for Time Series An Introduction Using R

    CERN Document Server

    Zucchini, Walter

    2009-01-01

    Illustrates the flexibility of HMMs as general-purpose models for time series data. This work presents an overview of HMMs for analyzing time series data, from continuous-valued, circular, and multivariate series to binary data, bounded and unbounded counts and categorical observations.

  11. New modeling method for the dielectric relaxation of a DRAM cell capacitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sujin; Sun, Wookyung; Shin, Hyungsoon

    2018-02-01

    This study proposes a new method for automatically synthesizing the equivalent circuit of the dielectric relaxation (DR) characteristic in dynamic random access memory (DRAM) without frequency dependent capacitance measurement. Charge loss due to DR can be observed by a voltage drop at the storage node and this phenomenon can be analyzed by an equivalent circuit. The Havariliak-Negami model is used to accurately determine the electrical characteristic parameters of an equivalent circuit. The DRAM sensing operation is performed in HSPICE simulations to verify this new method. The simulation demonstrates that the storage node voltage drop resulting from DR and the reduction in the sensing voltage margin, which has a critical impact on DRAM read operation, can be accurately estimated using this new method.

  12. Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

  13. Fourier Series, the DFT and Shape Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skoglund, Karl

    2004-01-01

    This report provides an introduction to Fourier series, the discrete Fourier transform, complex geometry and Fourier descriptors for shape analysis. The content is aimed at undergraduate and graduate students who wish to learn about Fourier analysis in general, as well as its application to shape...

  14. Suspended graphene variable capacitor

    OpenAIRE

    AbdelGhany, M.; Mahvash, F.; Mukhopadhyay, M.; Favron, A.; Martel, R.; Siaj, M.; Szkopek, T.

    2016-01-01

    The tuning of electrical circuit resonance with a variable capacitor, or varactor, finds wide application with the most important being wireless telecommunication. We demonstrate an electromechanical graphene varactor, a variable capacitor wherein the capacitance is tuned by voltage controlled deflection of a dense array of suspended graphene membranes. The low flexural rigidity of graphene monolayers is exploited to achieve low actuation voltage in an ultra-thin structure. Large arrays compr...

  15. Experimental analysis of an MIM capacitor with a concave shield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Lintao; Yu Mingyan; Wang Jinxiang

    2009-01-01

    A novel shielding scheme is developed by inserting a concave shield between a metal-insulator-metal (MIM) capacitor and the silicon substrate. Chip measurements reveal that the concave shield improves the quality factor by 11% at 11.8 GHz and 14% at 18.8 GHz compared with an unshielded MIM capacitor. It also alleviates the effect on shunt capacitance between the bottom plate of the MIM capacitor and the shield layer. Moreover, because the concave shields simplify substrate modeling, a simple circuit model of the MIM capacitor with concave shield is presented for radio frequency applications.

  16. Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

    2008-05-01

    Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

  17. Multiple Time Series Ising Model for Financial Market Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility clustering that is often observed in the real financial markets. Furthermore we also find non-zero cross correlations between the volatilities from our model. Thus our model can simulate stock markets where volatilities of stocks are mutually correlated

  18. Frequency characteristics of the MIM thick film capacitors fabricated by laser micro-cladding electronic pastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Yu; Li Xiangyou; Zeng Xiaoyan

    2008-01-01

    With rapid development of the electronic industry, how to respond the market requests quickly, shorten R and D prototyping fabrication period, and reduce the cost of the electronic devices have become a challenge work, which need flexible manufacturing methods. In this work, two direct write processing methods, direct material deposition by microPen and Nd:YAG laser micro-cladding, are integrated with CAD/CAM technology for the hybrid fabrication of passive electronic components. Especially, the metal-insulator-metal (MIM) type thick film capacitors are fabricated on ceramic substrates by this method. A basic two-step procedure of laser micro-cladding electronic pastes (LMCEPs) process for the thick film pattern preparation is presented. For a better understanding of the MIM thick film capacitor characterization, equivalent circuit models at low-frequency and high-frequency domains are introduced, respectively. The frequency characteristics tests up to 1.8 GHz of capacitance stability, equivalent series resistance (ESR), equivalent series inductance (ESL) and impendence are performed, and the results show good DC voltage stability (<2.48%), good frequency stability (<2.6%) and low dissipation factor (<0.6%) of the MIM thick film capacitors, which may get application to megahertz regions. The further developments of the LMCEP process for fabricating MIM thick film capacitors are also investigated

  19. Frequency characteristics of the MIM thick film capacitors fabricated by laser micro-cladding electronic pastes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao Yu; Li Xiangyou [Wuhan National Laboratory for Optoelectronics, Huazhong University of Sci and Tech, 430074 Wuhan, Hubei (China); Zeng Xiaoyan [Wuhan National Laboratory for Optoelectronics, Huazhong University of Sci and Tech, 430074 Wuhan, Hubei (China)], E-mail: xyzeng@mail.hust.edu.cn

    2008-05-25

    With rapid development of the electronic industry, how to respond the market requests quickly, shorten R and D prototyping fabrication period, and reduce the cost of the electronic devices have become a challenge work, which need flexible manufacturing methods. In this work, two direct write processing methods, direct material deposition by microPen and Nd:YAG laser micro-cladding, are integrated with CAD/CAM technology for the hybrid fabrication of passive electronic components. Especially, the metal-insulator-metal (MIM) type thick film capacitors are fabricated on ceramic substrates by this method. A basic two-step procedure of laser micro-cladding electronic pastes (LMCEPs) process for the thick film pattern preparation is presented. For a better understanding of the MIM thick film capacitor characterization, equivalent circuit models at low-frequency and high-frequency domains are introduced, respectively. The frequency characteristics tests up to 1.8 GHz of capacitance stability, equivalent series resistance (ESR), equivalent series inductance (ESL) and impendence are performed, and the results show good DC voltage stability (<2.48%), good frequency stability (<2.6%) and low dissipation factor (<0.6%) of the MIM thick film capacitors, which may get application to megahertz regions. The further developments of the LMCEP process for fabricating MIM thick film capacitors are also investigated.

  20. forecasting with nonlinear time series model: a monte-carlo

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PUBLICATIONS1

    erated recursively up to any step greater than one. For nonlinear time series model, point forecast for step one can be done easily like in the linear case but forecast for a step greater than or equal to ..... London. Franses, P. H. (1998). Time series models for business and Economic forecasting, Cam- bridge University press.

  1. Small Sample Properties of Bayesian Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Larry R.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the small sample (N = 1, 3, 5, 10, 15) performance of a Bayesian multivariate vector autoregressive (BVAR-SEM) time series model relative to frequentist power and parameter estimation bias. A multivariate autoregressive model was developed based on correlated autoregressive time series vectors of varying…

  2. Estimation of pure autoregressive vector models for revenue series ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper aims at applying multivariate approach to Box and Jenkins univariate time series modeling to three vector series. General Autoregressive Vector Models with time varying coefficients are estimated. The first vector is a response vector, while others are predictor vectors. By matrix expansion each vector, whether ...

  3. Parameterizing unconditional skewness in models for financial time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Changli; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of time series models. It is often argued that the marginal distribution of financial time series such as returns is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate...

  4. Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modeling extreme hydrologic events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rasmussen, Peter F.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    Two different models for analyzing extreme hydrologic events, based on, respectively, partial duration series (PDS) and annual maximum series (AMS), are compared. The PDS model assumes a generalized Pareto distribution for modeling threshold exceedances corresponding to a generalized extreme value......). In the case of ML estimation, the PDS model provides the most efficient T-year event estimator. In the cases of MOM and PWM estimation, the PDS model is generally preferable for negative shape parameters, whereas the AMS model yields the most efficient estimator for positive shape parameters. A comparison...... of the considered methods reveals that in general, one should use the PDS model with MOM estimation for negative shape parameters, the PDS model with exponentially distributed exceedances if the shape parameter is close to zero, the AMS model with MOM estimation for moderately positive shape parameters, and the PDS...

  5. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ArchMiller, Althea A; Dorazio, Robert M; St Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models-or "sightability models"-fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  6. Time series modelling of overflow structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carstensen, J.; Harremoës, P.

    1997-01-01

    The dynamics of a storage pipe is examined using a grey-box model based on on-line measured data. The grey-box modelling approach uses a combination of physically-based and empirical terms in the model formulation. The model provides an on-line state estimate of the overflows, pumping capacities...... and available storage capacity in the pipe as well as predictions of future states. A linear overflow relation is found, differing significantly from the traditional modelling approach. This is due to complicated overflow structures in a hydraulic sense where the overflow is governed by inertia from the inflow...... to the overflow structures. The capacity of a pump draining the storage pipe has been estimated for two rain events, revealing that the pump was malfunctioning during the first rain event. The grey-box modelling approach is applicable for automated on-line surveillance and control. (C) 1997 IAWQ. Published...

  7. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    ArchMiller, Althea A.; Dorazio, Robert; St. Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R.

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models—or “sightability models”—fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  8. The use of synthetic input sequences in time series modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Dair Jose de; Letellier, Christophe; Gomes, Murilo E.D.; Aguirre, Luis A.

    2008-01-01

    In many situations time series models obtained from noise-like data settle to trivial solutions under iteration. This Letter proposes a way of producing a synthetic (dummy) input, that is included to prevent the model from settling down to a trivial solution, while maintaining features of the original signal. Simulated benchmark models and a real time series of RR intervals from an ECG are used to illustrate the procedure

  9. Fourier series models through transformation | Omekara | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    As a result, the square transformation which outperforms the others is adopted. Consequently, each of the multiplicative and additive FSA models fitted to the transformed data are then subjected to a test for white noise based on spectral analysis. The result of this test shows that only the multiplicative model is adequate.

  10. Time domain series system definition and gear set reliability modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie, Liyang; Wu, Ningxiang; Qian, Wenxue

    2016-01-01

    Time-dependent multi-configuration is a typical feature for mechanical systems such as gear trains and chain drives. As a series system, a gear train is distinct from a traditional series system, such as a chain, in load transmission path, system-component relationship, system functioning manner, as well as time-dependent system configuration. Firstly, the present paper defines time-domain series system to which the traditional series system reliability model is not adequate. Then, system specific reliability modeling technique is proposed for gear sets, including component (tooth) and subsystem (tooth-pair) load history description, material priori/posterior strength expression, time-dependent and system specific load-strength interference analysis, as well as statistically dependent failure events treatment. Consequently, several system reliability models are developed for gear sets with different tooth numbers in the scenario of tooth root material ultimate tensile strength failure. The application of the models is discussed in the last part, and the differences between the system specific reliability model and the traditional series system reliability model are illustrated by virtue of several numerical examples. - Highlights: • A new type of series system, i.e. time-domain multi-configuration series system is defined, that is of great significance to reliability modeling. • Multi-level statistical analysis based reliability modeling method is presented for gear transmission system. • Several system specific reliability models are established for gear set reliability estimation. • The differences between the traditional series system reliability model and the new model are illustrated.

  11. Long Memory Models to Generate Synthetic Hydrological Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Armando de Almeida Pereira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In Brazil, much of the energy production comes from hydroelectric plants whose planning is not trivial due to the strong dependence on rainfall regimes. This planning is accomplished through optimization models that use inputs such as synthetic hydrologic series generated from the statistical model PAR(p (periodic autoregressive. Recently, Brazil began the search for alternative models able to capture the effects that the traditional model PAR(p does not incorporate, such as long memory effects. Long memory in a time series can be defined as a significant dependence between lags separated by a long period of time. Thus, this research develops a study of the effects of long dependence in the series of streamflow natural energy in the South subsystem, in order to estimate a long memory model capable of generating synthetic hydrologic series.

  12. Tempered fractional time series model for turbulence in geophysical flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerschaert, Mark M.; Sabzikar, Farzad; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Zeleke, Aklilu

    2014-09-01

    We propose a new time series model for velocity data in turbulent flows. The new model employs tempered fractional calculus to extend the classical 5/3 spectral model of Kolmogorov. Application to wind speed and water velocity in a large lake are presented, to demonstrate the practical utility of the model.

  13. Tempered fractional time series model for turbulence in geophysical flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meerschaert, Mark M; Sabzikar, Farzad; Phanikumar, Mantha S; Zeleke, Aklilu

    2014-01-01

    We propose a new time series model for velocity data in turbulent flows. The new model employs tempered fractional calculus to extend the classical 5/3 spectral model of Kolmogorov. Application to wind speed and water velocity in a large lake are presented, to demonstrate the practical utility of the model. (paper)

  14. forecasting with nonlinear time series model: a monte-carlo

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PUBLICATIONS1

    Carlo method of forecasting using a special nonlinear time series model, called logistic smooth transition ... We illustrate this new method using some simulation ..... in MATLAB 7.5.0. ... process (DGP) using the logistic smooth transi-.

  15. Structural Equation Modeling of Multivariate Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    du Toit, Stephen H. C.; Browne, Michael W.

    2007-01-01

    The covariance structure of a vector autoregressive process with moving average residuals (VARMA) is derived. It differs from other available expressions for the covariance function of a stationary VARMA process and is compatible with current structural equation methodology. Structural equation modeling programs, such as LISREL, may therefore be…

  16. LPV system identification using series expansion models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toth, R.; Heuberger, P.S.C.; Hof, Van den P.M.J.; Santos, dos P.L.; Perdicoúlis, T.P.A.; Novara, C.; Ramos, J.A.; Rivera, D.E.

    2011-01-01

    This review volume reports the state-of-the-art in Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) system identification. Written by world renowned researchers, the book contains twelve chapters, focusing on the most recent LPV identification methods for both discrete-time and continuous-time models, using different

  17. Forecasting daily meteorological time series using ARIMA and regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murat, Małgorzata; Malinowska, Iwona; Gos, Magdalena; Krzyszczak, Jaromir

    2018-04-01

    The daily air temperature and precipitation time series recorded between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010 in four European sites (Jokioinen, Dikopshof, Lleida and Lublin) from different climatic zones were modeled and forecasted. In our forecasting we used the methods of the Box-Jenkins and Holt- Winters seasonal auto regressive integrated moving-average, the autoregressive integrated moving-average with external regressors in the form of Fourier terms and the time series regression, including trend and seasonality components methodology with R software. It was demonstrated that obtained models are able to capture the dynamics of the time series data and to produce sensible forecasts.

  18. Nanoporous carbon for electrochemical capacitors.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siegal, Michael P.; Bunker, Bruce Conrad; Limmer, Steven J.; Yelton, William Graham

    2010-05-01

    Nanoporous carbon (NPC) is a purely graphitic material with highly controlled densities ranging from less than 0.1 to 2.0 g/cm3, grown via pulsed-laser deposition. Decreasing the density of NPC increases the interplanar spacing between graphene-sheet fragments. This ability to tune the interplanar spacing makes NPC an ideal model system to study the behavior of carbon electrodes in electrochemical capacitors and batteries. We examine the capacitance of NPC films in alkaline and acidic electrolytes, and measure specific capacitances as high as 242 F/g.

  19. Nanoporous carbon for electrochemical capacitors.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Overmyer, Donald L.; Siegal, Michael P.; Bunker, Bruce Conrad; Limmer, Steven J.; Yelton, William Graham

    2010-04-01

    Nanoporous carbon (NPC) is a purely graphitic material with highly controlled densities ranging from less than 0.1 to 2.0 g/cm3, grown via pulsed-laser deposition. Decreasing the density of NPC increases the interplanar spacing between graphene-sheet fragments. This ability to tune the interplanar spacing makes NPC an ideal model system to study the behavior of carbon electrodes in electrochemical capacitors and batteries. We examine the capacitance of NPC films in alkaline and acidic electrolytes, and measure specific capacitances as high as 242 F/g.

  20. Capacitor ageing in electronic devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard B. N. Vital

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The moment when an electronic component doesn’t work like requirements, previously established is a task that need to be considered since began of a system design. However, the use of different technologies, operating under several environmental conditions, makes a component choice a complex step in system design. This paper analyzes the effects that ageing phenomenon of capacitors may introduce in electronic devices operation. For this reason, reliability concepts, processes and mechanism of degradation are presented. Additionally, some mathematical models are presented to assist maintenance activities or component replacement. The presented approach compares the operability of intact and aged components.

  1. Enhanced DC-Link Capacitor Voltage Balancing Control of DC–AC Multilevel Multileg Converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busquets-Monge, Sergio; Maheshwari, Ram Krishan; Nicolas-Apruzzese, Joan

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a capacitor voltage balancing control applicable to any multilevel dc–ac converter formed by a single set of series-connected capacitors implementing the dc link and semiconductor devices, such as the diode-clamped topology. The control is defined for any number of dc-link vol......This paper presents a capacitor voltage balancing control applicable to any multilevel dc–ac converter formed by a single set of series-connected capacitors implementing the dc link and semiconductor devices, such as the diode-clamped topology. The control is defined for any number of dc...

  2. Electrically tuned super-capacitors

    OpenAIRE

    Chowdhury, Tazima S.; Grebel, Haim

    2015-01-01

    Fast charging and discharging of large amounts of electrical energy make super-capacitors ideal for short-term energy storage [1-5]. In its simplest form, the super-capacitor is an electrolytic capacitor made of an anode and a cathode immersed in an electrolyte. As for an ordinary capacitor, minimizing the charge separation distance and increasing the electrode area increase capacitance. In super-capacitors, charge separation is of nano-meter scale at each of the electrode interface (the Helm...

  3. With string model to time series forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinčák, Richard; Bartoš, Erik

    2015-10-01

    Overwhelming majority of econometric models applied on a long term basis in the financial forex market do not work sufficiently well. The reason is that transaction costs and arbitrage opportunity are not included, as this does not simulate the real financial markets. Analyses are not conducted on the non equidistant date but rather on the aggregate date, which is also not a real financial case. In this paper, we would like to show a new way how to analyze and, moreover, forecast financial market. We utilize the projections of the real exchange rate dynamics onto the string-like topology in the OANDA market. The latter approach allows us to build the stable prediction models in trading in the financial forex market. The real application of the multi-string structures is provided to demonstrate our ideas for the solution of the problem of the robust portfolio selection. The comparison with the trend following strategies was performed, the stability of the algorithm on the transaction costs for long trade periods was confirmed.

  4. Evaluation of Commercial Automotive-Grade BME Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Donhang

    2014-01-01

    Three Ni-BaTiO3 ceramic capacitor lots with the same specification (chip size, capacitance, and rated voltage) and the same reliability level, made by three different manufacturers, were degraded using highly accelerated life stress testing (HALST) with the same temperature and applied voltage conditions. The reliability, as characterized by mean time to failure (MTTF), differed by more than one order of magnitude among the capacitor lots. A theoretical model based on the existence of depletion layers at grain boundaries and the entrapment of oxygen vacancies has been proposed to explain the MTTF difference among these BME capacitors. It is the conclusion of this model that reliability will not be improved simply by increasing the insulation resistance of a BME capacitor. Indeed, Ni-BaTiO3 ceramic capacitors with a smaller degradation rate constant K will always give rise to a longer reliability life.

  5. Mechanical states in wound capacitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, J.J.; Reuter, R.C. Jr.

    1989-01-01

    The winding process is encountered frequently in manufacturing, such as winding of polymer films and paper, laminated pressure vessel construction, and the manufacture of wound capacitors. The winding of capacitors will typically involve hundreds of plies of conductor and dielectric wound over a core. Due to the large number of layers, the calculation of the mechanical studies within a wound capacitor is a significant computational task. The focus of Part II of this paper is the formulation and application of optimization techniques for the design of wound capacitors. The design criteria to be achieved is a specified uniform wound tension in a capacitor. The paper will formulate an optimization statement of the wound capacitor design problem, develop a technique for reducing the numerical calculation required to repeatedly analyze the capacitor as required by the optimization algorithm, and apply the technique to an example. 4 refs., 13 figs., 4 tabs

  6. Koopman Operator Framework for Time Series Modeling and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surana, Amit

    2018-01-01

    We propose an interdisciplinary framework for time series classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection by combining concepts from Koopman operator theory, machine learning, and linear systems and control theory. At the core of this framework is nonlinear dynamic generative modeling of time series using the Koopman operator which is an infinite-dimensional but linear operator. Rather than working with the underlying nonlinear model, we propose two simpler linear representations or model forms based on Koopman spectral properties. We show that these model forms are invariants of the generative model and can be readily identified directly from data using techniques for computing Koopman spectral properties without requiring the explicit knowledge of the generative model. We also introduce different notions of distances on the space of such model forms which is essential for model comparison/clustering. We employ the space of Koopman model forms equipped with distance in conjunction with classical machine learning techniques to develop a framework for automatic feature generation for time series classification. The forecasting/anomaly detection framework is based on using Koopman model forms along with classical linear systems and control approaches. We demonstrate the proposed framework for human activity classification, and for time series forecasting/anomaly detection in power grid application.

  7. Stochastic modeling of hourly rainfall times series in Campania (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorgio, M.; Greco, R.

    2009-04-01

    Occurrence of flowslides and floods in small catchments is uneasy to predict, since it is affected by a number of variables, such as mechanical and hydraulic soil properties, slope morphology, vegetation coverage, rainfall spatial and temporal variability. Consequently, landslide risk assessment procedures and early warning systems still rely on simple empirical models based on correlation between recorded rainfall data and observed landslides and/or river discharges. Effectiveness of such systems could be improved by reliable quantitative rainfall prediction, which can allow gaining larger lead-times. Analysis of on-site recorded rainfall height time series represents the most effective approach for a reliable prediction of local temporal evolution of rainfall. Hydrological time series analysis is a widely studied field in hydrology, often carried out by means of autoregressive models, such as AR, ARMA, ARX, ARMAX (e.g. Salas [1992]). Such models gave the best results when applied to the analysis of autocorrelated hydrological time series, like river flow or level time series. Conversely, they are not able to model the behaviour of intermittent time series, like point rainfall height series usually are, especially when recorded with short sampling time intervals. More useful for this issue are the so-called DRIP (Disaggregated Rectangular Intensity Pulse) and NSRP (Neymann-Scott Rectangular Pulse) model [Heneker et al., 2001; Cowpertwait et al., 2002], usually adopted to generate synthetic point rainfall series. In this paper, the DRIP model approach is adopted, in which the sequence of rain storms and dry intervals constituting the structure of rainfall time series is modeled as an alternating renewal process. Final aim of the study is to provide a useful tool to implement an early warning system for hydrogeological risk management. Model calibration has been carried out with hourly rainfall hieght data provided by the rain gauges of Campania Region civil

  8. Linear variable voltage diode capacitor and adaptive matching networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Larson, L.E.; De Vreede, L.C.N.

    2006-01-01

    An integrated variable voltage diode capacitor topology applied to a circuit providing a variable voltage load for controlling variable capacitance. The topology includes a first pair of anti-series varactor diodes, wherein the diode power-law exponent n for the first pair of anti-series varactor

  9. Models for Pooled Time-Series Cross-Section Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence E Raffalovich

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Several models are available for the analysis of pooled time-series cross-section (TSCS data, defined as “repeated observations on fixed units” (Beck and Katz 1995. In this paper, we run the following models: (1 a completely pooled model, (2 fixed effects models, and (3 multi-level/hierarchical linear models. To illustrate these models, we use a Generalized Least Squares (GLS estimator with cross-section weights and panel-corrected standard errors (with EViews 8 on the cross-national homicide trends data of forty countries from 1950 to 2005, which we source from published research (Messner et al. 2011. We describe and discuss the similarities and differences between the models, and what information each can contribute to help answer substantive research questions. We conclude with a discussion of how the models we present may help to mitigate validity threats inherent in pooled time-series cross-section data analysis.

  10. Small-signal model for the series resonant converter

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, R. J.; Stuart, T. A.

    1985-01-01

    The results of a previous discrete-time model of the series resonant dc-dc converter are reviewed and from these a small signal dynamic model is derived. This model is valid for low frequencies and is based on the modulation of the diode conduction angle for control. The basic converter is modeled separately from its output filter to facilitate the use of these results for design purposes. Experimental results are presented.

  11. Direct Mismatch Characterization of femto-Farad Capacitors

    KAUST Repository

    Omran, Hesham

    2015-08-17

    Reducing the capacitance of programmable capacitor arrays, commonly used in analog integrated circuits, is necessary for low-energy applications. However, limited mismatch data is available for small capacitors. We report mismatch measurement for a 2fF poly-insulator-poly (PIP) capacitor, which is the smallest reported PIP capacitor to the best of the authors’ knowledge. Instead of using complicated custom onchip circuitry, direct mismatch measurement is demonstrated and verified using Monte Carlo Simulations and experimental measurements. Capacitive test structures composed of 9 bit programmable capacitor arrays (PCAs) are implemented in a low-cost 0:35m CMOS process. Measured data is compared to mismatch of large PIP capacitors, theoretical models, and recently published data. Measurement results indicate an estimated average relative standard deviation of 0.43% for the 2fF unit capacitor, which is better than the reported mismatch of metal-oxide-metal (MOM) fringing capacitors implemented in an advanced 32nm CMOS process.

  12. Direct Mismatch Characterization of femto-Farad Capacitors

    KAUST Repository

    Omran, Hesham; Elafandy, Rami T.; Arsalan, Muhammad; Salama, Khaled N.

    2015-01-01

    Reducing the capacitance of programmable capacitor arrays, commonly used in analog integrated circuits, is necessary for low-energy applications. However, limited mismatch data is available for small capacitors. We report mismatch measurement for a 2fF poly-insulator-poly (PIP) capacitor, which is the smallest reported PIP capacitor to the best of the authors’ knowledge. Instead of using complicated custom onchip circuitry, direct mismatch measurement is demonstrated and verified using Monte Carlo Simulations and experimental measurements. Capacitive test structures composed of 9 􀀀 bit programmable capacitor arrays (PCAs) are implemented in a low-cost 0:35m CMOS process. Measured data is compared to mismatch of large PIP capacitors, theoretical models, and recently published data. Measurement results indicate an estimated average relative standard deviation of 0.43% for the 2fF unit capacitor, which is better than the reported mismatch of metal-oxide-metal (MOM) fringing capacitors implemented in an advanced 32nm CMOS process.

  13. Absorption Voltages and Insulation Resistance in Ceramic Capacitors with Cracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teverovsky, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Time dependence of absorption voltages (Vabs) in different types of low-voltage X5R and X7R ceramic capacitors was monitored for a maximum duration of hundred hours after polarization. To evaluate the effect of mechanical defects on Vabs, cracks in the dielectric were introduced either mechanically or by thermal shock. The maximum absorption voltage, time to roll-off, and the rate of voltage decrease are shown to depend on the crack-related leakage currents and insulation resistance in the parts. A simple model that is based on the Dow equivalent circuit for capacitors with absorption has been developed to assess the insulation resistance of capacitors. Standard measurements of the insulation resistance, contrary to the measurements based on Vabs, are not sensitive to the presence of mechanical defects and fail to reveal capacitors with cracks. Index Terms: Ceramic capacitor, insulation resistance, dielectric absorption, cracking.

  14. Reliability of capacitors for DC-link applications - An overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2013-01-01

    DC-link capacitors are an important part in the majority of power electronic converters which contribute to cost, size and failure rate on a considerable scale. From capacitor users' viewpoint, this paper presents a review on the improvement of reliability of DC-link in power electronic converters...... from two aspects: 1) reliability-oriented DC-link design solutions; 2) conditioning monitoring of DC-link capacitors during operation. Failure mechanisms, failure modes and lifetime models of capacitors suitable for the applications are also discussed as a basis to understand the physics......-of-failure. This review serves to provide a clear picture of the state-of-the-art research in this area and to identify the corresponding challenges and future research directions for capacitors and their DC-link applications....

  15. Identification of human operator performance models utilizing time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holden, F. M.; Shinners, S. M.

    1973-01-01

    The results of an effort performed by Sperry Systems Management Division for AMRL in applying time series analysis as a tool for modeling the human operator are presented. This technique is utilized for determining the variation of the human transfer function under various levels of stress. The human operator's model is determined based on actual input and output data from a tracking experiment.

  16. RADON CONCENTRATION TIME SERIES MODELING AND APPLICATION DISCUSSION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stránský, V; Thinová, L

    2017-11-01

    In the year 2010 a continual radon measurement was established at Mladeč Caves in the Czech Republic using a continual radon monitor RADIM3A. In order to model radon time series in the years 2010-15, the Box-Jenkins Methodology, often used in econometrics, was applied. Because of the behavior of radon concentrations (RCs), a seasonal integrated, autoregressive moving averages model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) has been chosen to model the measured time series. This model uses the time series seasonality, previously acquired values and delayed atmospheric parameters, to forecast RC. The developed model for RC time series is called regARIMA(5,1,3). Model residuals could be retrospectively compared with seismic evidence of local or global earthquakes, which occurred during the RCs measurement. This technique enables us to asses if continuously measured RC could serve an earthquake precursor. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. High-temperature series expansions for random Potts models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Hellmund

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We discuss recently generated high-temperature series expansions for the free energy and the susceptibility of random-bond q-state Potts models on hypercubic lattices. Using the star-graph expansion technique, quenched disorder averages can be calculated exactly for arbitrary uncorrelated coupling distributions while keeping the disorder strength p as well as the dimension d as symbolic parameters. We present analyses of the new series for the susceptibility of the Ising (q=2 and 4-state Potts model in three dimensions up to the order 19 and 18, respectively, and compare our findings with results from field-theoretical renormalization group studies and Monte Carlo simulations.

  18. New series of 3 D lattice integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangazeev, V.V.; Sergeev, S.M.; Stroganov, Yu.G.

    1993-01-01

    In this paper we present a new series of 3-dimensional integrable lattice models with N colors. The weight functions of the models satisfy modified tetrahedron equations with N states and give a commuting family of two-layer transfer-matrices. The dependence on the spectral parameters corresponds to the static limit of the modified tetrahedron equations and weights are parameterized in terms of elliptic functions. The models contain two free parameters: elliptic modulus and additional parameter η. 12 refs

  19. Quality Quandaries- Time Series Model Selection and Parsimony

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisgaard, Søren; Kulahci, Murat

    2009-01-01

    Some of the issues involved in selecting adequate models for time series data are discussed using an example concerning the number of users of an Internet server. The process of selecting an appropriate model is subjective and requires experience and judgment. The authors believe an important...... consideration in model selection should be parameter parsimony. They favor the use of parsimonious mixed ARMA models, noting that research has shown that a model building strategy that considers only autoregressive representations will lead to non-parsimonious models and to loss of forecasting accuracy....

  20. Measurements of fuse and resistor characteristics for multi-megajoule capacitor bank application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, K.F.; Smith, T.; Golden, J.; Conley, B.

    1986-01-01

    Experimental tests have been conducted on commercially available fuses and resistors under fast high voltage pulsed (10 μsec) conditions to determine their ability to protect capacitor bank components during faults. NRL's Modified Betatron Accelerator uses two multi-megajoule capacitor banks to power the toroidal and betatron magnetic field coils. The expensive high energy density capacitors in these banks must be protected from excessive peak current, voltage reversal, or charging beyond their electrical ratings in the occurrence of a fault. Adequate protection can be obtained with fuses and resistors in series with each parallel connected capacitor. The fuses must open reliably and hold off high voltage D.C. (10 - 20 kV), and the resistors must conduct high current and di/dt without failing from energy deposition or magnetic forces. The performance of the commercial fuses is well documented at low AC frequencies and currents (60 Hz/100 A) but data was not previously available for the fast high current pulsed conditions that prevail under actual fault conditions. A 20 kV 200 kJ, low inductance capacitor bank and ignitron switch were used to conduct the experiments. Peak currents in the fuses were approximately 170 kA at t - 6.5 μs. The final fuse hold-off voltage exceeded 8 kV. Currents in the resistors ranged from - 20 - 40 kA per resistor. The experimental results have been compared to the manufacturers data from minimum melt and maximum let-through and to exploding bridge wire computer models

  1. Lifetime Estimation of Electrolytic Capacitors in Fuel Cell Power Converter at Various Confidence Levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Dao; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2016-01-01

    DC capacitors in power electronic converters are a major constraint on improvement of the power density and the reliability. In this paper, according to the degradation data of tested capacitors, the lifetime model of the component is analyzed at various confidence levels. Then, the mission profile...... based lifetime expectancy of the individual capacitor and the capacitor bank is estimated in a fuel cell backup power converter operating in both standby mode and operation mode. The lifetime prediction of the capacitor banks at different confidence levels is also obtained....

  2. Capacitor assembly and related method of forming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lili; Tan, Daniel Qi; Sullivan, Jeffrey S.

    2017-12-19

    A capacitor assembly is disclosed. The capacitor assembly includes a housing. The capacitor assembly further includes a plurality of capacitors disposed within the housing. Furthermore, the capacitor assembly includes a thermally conductive article disposed about at least a portion of a capacitor body of the capacitors, and in thermal contact with the capacitor body. Moreover, the capacitor assembly also includes a heat sink disposed within the housing and in thermal contact with at least a portion of the housing and the thermally conductive article such that the heat sink is configured to remove heat from the capacitor in a radial direction of the capacitor assembly. Further, a method of forming the capacitor assembly is also presented.

  3. Fractal Structures For Mems Variable Capacitors

    KAUST Repository

    Elshurafa, Amro M.; Radwan, Ahmed Gomaa Ahmed; Emira, Ahmed A.; Salama, Khaled N.

    2014-01-01

    In accordance with the present disclosure, one embodiment of a fractal variable capacitor comprises a capacitor body in a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) structure, wherein the capacitor body has an upper first metal plate with a fractal shape

  4. Single-Index Additive Vector Autoregressive Time Series Models

    KAUST Repository

    LI, YEHUA; GENTON, MARC G.

    2009-01-01

    We study a new class of nonlinear autoregressive models for vector time series, where the current vector depends on single-indexes defined on the past lags and the effects of different lags have an additive form. A sufficient condition is provided

  5. Book Review: "Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction using R. by Walter Zucchini and Iain L. MacDonald. Chapman & Hall (CRC Press), 2009. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/saaj.v10i1.61717 · AJOL African Journals Online.

  6. Modeling the full-bridge series-resonant power converter

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, R. J.; Stuart, T. A.

    1982-01-01

    A steady state model is derived for the full-bridge series-resonant power converter. Normalized parametric curves for various currents and voltages are then plotted versus the triggering angle of the switching devices. The calculations are compared with experimental measurements made on a 50 kHz converter and a discussion of certain operating problems is presented.

  7. Multivariate time series modeling of selected childhood diseases in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is focused on modeling the five most prevalent childhood diseases in Akwa Ibom State using a multivariate approach to time series. An aggregate of 78,839 reported cases of malaria, upper respiratory tract infection (URTI), Pneumonia, anaemia and tetanus were extracted from five randomly selected hospitals in ...

  8. Design of constant current charging power supply for J-TEXT ohmic field capacitor banks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lv Shudong; Zhang Ming; Rao Bo; Yu Kexun; Yang Cheng

    2014-01-01

    The charging characteristic of the capacitor charging power supply was analyzed with practical series resonant topology. The method that setting two current taps and regulating PWM switching frequency was putted forward with close loop controlling algorithm to charge the multi-group capacitor banks with constant current. A capacitor charging power supply with the max output current 6.5 A and the max output voltage 2000 V is designed. Experimental results show that, this power supply can charge the four capacitor banks to any four different voltages in 1 minute with charging accuracy less than 1%, and meet the requirements of J-TEXT ohmic field power system. (authors)

  9. Experimental and modeling study of the capacitance-voltage characteristics of metal-insulator-semiconductor capacitor based on pentacene/parylene

    KAUST Repository

    Wondmagegn, Wudyalew T.; Satyala, Nikhil T.; Mejia, Israel I.; Mao, Duo; Gowrisanker, Srinivas; Alshareef, Husam N.; Stiegler, Harvey J.; Quevedo-Ló pez, Manuel Angel Quevedo; Pieper, Ron J.; Gnade, Bruce E.

    2011-01-01

    The capacitance-voltage (C-V) characteristics of metal-insulator- semiconductor (MIS) capacitors consisting of pentacene as an organic semiconductor and parylene as the dielectric have been investigated by experimental, analytical, and numerical

  10. Recursive Bayesian recurrent neural networks for time-series modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirikitani, Derrick T; Nikolaev, Nikolay

    2010-02-01

    This paper develops a probabilistic approach to recursive second-order training of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for improved time-series modeling. A general recursive Bayesian Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is derived to sequentially update the weights and the covariance (Hessian) matrix. The main strengths of the approach are a principled handling of the regularization hyperparameters that leads to better generalization, and stable numerical performance. The framework involves the adaptation of a noise hyperparameter and local weight prior hyperparameters, which represent the noise in the data and the uncertainties in the model parameters. Experimental investigations using artificial and real-world data sets show that RNNs equipped with the proposed approach outperform standard real-time recurrent learning and extended Kalman training algorithms for recurrent networks, as well as other contemporary nonlinear neural models, on time-series modeling.

  11. Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayo, W. S.; Urrutia, J. D.; Temple, J. M. F.; Sandoval, J. R. D.; Sanglay, J. E. A.

    2015-06-01

    This study was conducted to develop a time series model of the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and its volatility using the finite mixture of ARIMA model with conditional variance equations such as ARCH, GARCH, EG ARCH, TARCH and PARCH models. Also, the study aimed to find out the reason behind the behaviorof PSEi, that is, which of the economic variables - Consumer Price Index, crude oil price, foreign exchange rate, gold price, interest rate, money supply, price-earnings ratio, Producers’ Price Index and terms of trade - can be used in projecting future values of PSEi and this was examined using Granger Causality Test. The findings showed that the best time series model for Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index is ARIMA(1,1,5) - ARCH(1). Also, Consumer Price Index, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate are factors concluded to Granger cause Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index.

  12. Prognostic Techniques for Capacitor Degradation and Health Monitoring

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper discusses our initial efforts in constructing physics of failure models for electrolytic capacitors subjected to electrical stressors in DC-DC power...

  13. Neutral-point current modeling and control for Neutral-Point Clamped three-level converter drive with small DC-link capacitors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maheshwari, Ram Krishan; Munk-Nielsen, Stig; Busquets-Monge, Sergio

    2011-01-01

    A Neutral-Point-Clamped (NPC) three-level inverter with small DC-link capacitors is presented in this paper. This inverter requires zero average neutral-point current for stable neutral-point potential. A simple carrier based modulation strategy is proposed for achieving zero average neutral...... drive with only 14 μF DC-link capacitors. A fast and stable performance of the neutral-point voltage controller is achieved and verified by experiments....

  14. A Robust DC-Split-Capacitor Power Decoupling Scheme for Single-Phase Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yao, Wenli; Loh, Poh Chiang; Tang, Yi

    2017-01-01

    Instead of bulky electrolytic capacitors, active power decoupling circuit can be introduced to a single-phase converter for diverting second harmonic ripple away from its dc source or load. One possible circuit consists of a half-bridge and two capacitors in series for forming a dc-split capacitor......, instead of the usual single dc-link capacitor bank. Methods for regulating this power decoupler have earlier been developed, but almost always with equal capacitances assumed for forming the dc-split capacitor, even though it is not realistic in practice. The assumption should, hence, be evaluated more...... thoroughly, especially when it is shown in the paper that even a slight mismatch can render the power decoupling scheme ineffective and the IEEE 1547 standard to be breached. A more robust compensation scheme is, thus, needed for the dc-split capacitor circuit, as proposed and tested experimentally...

  15. Neural network versus classical time series forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nor, Maria Elena; Safuan, Hamizah Mohd; Shab, Noorzehan Fazahiyah Md; Asrul, Mohd; Abdullah, Affendi; Mohamad, Nurul Asmaa Izzati; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

    2017-05-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) has advantage in time series forecasting as it has potential to solve complex forecasting problems. This is because ANN is data driven approach which able to be trained to map past values of a time series. In this study the forecast performance between neural network and classical time series forecasting method namely seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models was being compared by utilizing gold price data. Moreover, the effect of different data preprocessing on the forecast performance of neural network being examined. The forecast accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute deviation, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It was found that ANN produced the most accurate forecast when Box-Cox transformation was used as data preprocessing.

  16. Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

    2015-02-01

    Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.

  17. Time Series Analysis, Modeling and Applications A Computational Intelligence Perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Shyi-Ming

    2013-01-01

    Temporal and spatiotemporal data form an inherent fabric of the society as we are faced with streams of data coming from numerous sensors, data feeds, recordings associated with numerous areas of application embracing physical and human-generated phenomena (environmental data, financial markets, Internet activities, etc.). A quest for a thorough analysis, interpretation, modeling and prediction of time series comes with an ongoing challenge for developing models that are both accurate and user-friendly (interpretable). The volume is aimed to exploit the conceptual and algorithmic framework of Computational Intelligence (CI) to form a cohesive and comprehensive environment for building models of time series. The contributions covered in the volume are fully reflective of the wealth of the CI technologies by bringing together ideas, algorithms, and numeric studies, which convincingly demonstrate their relevance, maturity and visible usefulness. It reflects upon the truly remarkable diversity of methodological a...

  18. A Simple, Successful Capacitor Lab

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ennis, William

    2011-01-01

    Capacitors are a fundamental component of modern electronics. They appear in myriad devices and in an enormous range of sizes. Although our students are taught the function and analysis of capacitors, few have the opportunity to use them in our labs.

  19. Protection of large capacitor banks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprott, J.C.; Lovell, T.W.

    1982-06-01

    Large capacitor banks, as used in many pulsed plasma experiments, are subject to catastrophic failure in the event of a short in the output or in an individual capacitor. Methods are described for protecting such banks to minimize the damage and down-time caused by such a failure

  20. Time series regression model for infectious disease and weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, Chisato; Armstrong, Ben; Chalabi, Zaid; Mangtani, Punam; Hashizume, Masahiro

    2015-10-01

    Time series regression has been developed and long used to evaluate the short-term associations of air pollution and weather with mortality or morbidity of non-infectious diseases. The application of the regression approaches from this tradition to infectious diseases, however, is less well explored and raises some new issues. We discuss and present potential solutions for five issues often arising in such analyses: changes in immune population, strong autocorrelations, a wide range of plausible lag structures and association patterns, seasonality adjustments, and large overdispersion. The potential approaches are illustrated with datasets of cholera cases and rainfall from Bangladesh and influenza and temperature in Tokyo. Though this article focuses on the application of the traditional time series regression to infectious diseases and weather factors, we also briefly introduce alternative approaches, including mathematical modeling, wavelet analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Modifications proposed to standard time series regression practice include using sums of past cases as proxies for the immune population, and using the logarithm of lagged disease counts to control autocorrelation due to true contagion, both of which are motivated from "susceptible-infectious-recovered" (SIR) models. The complexity of lag structures and association patterns can often be informed by biological mechanisms and explored by using distributed lag non-linear models. For overdispersed models, alternative distribution models such as quasi-Poisson and negative binomial should be considered. Time series regression can be used to investigate dependence of infectious diseases on weather, but may need modifying to allow for features specific to this context. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Identification of neutral biochemical network models from time series data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maia Marco

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The major difficulty in modeling biological systems from multivariate time series is the identification of parameter sets that endow a model with dynamical behaviors sufficiently similar to the experimental data. Directly related to this parameter estimation issue is the task of identifying the structure and regulation of ill-characterized systems. Both tasks are simplified if the mathematical model is canonical, i.e., if it is constructed according to strict guidelines. Results In this report, we propose a method for the identification of admissible parameter sets of canonical S-systems from biological time series. The method is based on a Monte Carlo process that is combined with an improved version of our previous parameter optimization algorithm. The method maps the parameter space into the network space, which characterizes the connectivity among components, by creating an ensemble of decoupled S-system models that imitate the dynamical behavior of the time series with sufficient accuracy. The concept of sloppiness is revisited in the context of these S-system models with an exploration not only of different parameter sets that produce similar dynamical behaviors but also different network topologies that yield dynamical similarity. Conclusion The proposed parameter estimation methodology was applied to actual time series data from the glycolytic pathway of the bacterium Lactococcus lactis and led to ensembles of models with different network topologies. In parallel, the parameter optimization algorithm was applied to the same dynamical data upon imposing a pre-specified network topology derived from prior biological knowledge, and the results from both strategies were compared. The results suggest that the proposed method may serve as a powerful exploration tool for testing hypotheses and the design of new experiments.

  2. Identification of neutral biochemical network models from time series data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela, Marco; Vinga, Susana; Maia, Marco A Grivet Mattoso; Voit, Eberhard O; Almeida, Jonas S

    2009-05-05

    The major difficulty in modeling biological systems from multivariate time series is the identification of parameter sets that endow a model with dynamical behaviors sufficiently similar to the experimental data. Directly related to this parameter estimation issue is the task of identifying the structure and regulation of ill-characterized systems. Both tasks are simplified if the mathematical model is canonical, i.e., if it is constructed according to strict guidelines. In this report, we propose a method for the identification of admissible parameter sets of canonical S-systems from biological time series. The method is based on a Monte Carlo process that is combined with an improved version of our previous parameter optimization algorithm. The method maps the parameter space into the network space, which characterizes the connectivity among components, by creating an ensemble of decoupled S-system models that imitate the dynamical behavior of the time series with sufficient accuracy. The concept of sloppiness is revisited in the context of these S-system models with an exploration not only of different parameter sets that produce similar dynamical behaviors but also different network topologies that yield dynamical similarity. The proposed parameter estimation methodology was applied to actual time series data from the glycolytic pathway of the bacterium Lactococcus lactis and led to ensembles of models with different network topologies. In parallel, the parameter optimization algorithm was applied to the same dynamical data upon imposing a pre-specified network topology derived from prior biological knowledge, and the results from both strategies were compared. The results suggest that the proposed method may serve as a powerful exploration tool for testing hypotheses and the design of new experiments.

  3. Degeneracy of time series models: The best model is not always the correct model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judd, Kevin; Nakamura, Tomomichi

    2006-01-01

    There are a number of good techniques for finding, in some sense, the best model of a deterministic system given a time series of observations. We examine a problem called model degeneracy, which has the consequence that even when a perfect model of a system exists, one does not find it using the best techniques currently available. The problem is illustrated using global polynomial models and the theory of Groebner bases

  4. Forecasting the Reference Evapotranspiration Using Time Series Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Zare Abyaneh

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Reference evapotranspiration is one of the most important factors in irrigation timing and field management. Moreover, reference evapotranspiration forecasting can play a vital role in future developments. Therefore in this study, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to forecast the reference evapotranspiration time series in the Esfahan, Semnan, Shiraz, Kerman, and Yazd synoptic stations. Materials and Methods: In the present study in all stations (characteristics of the synoptic stations are given in Table 1, the meteorological data, including mean, maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, dry-and wet-bulb temperature, dew-point temperature, wind speed, precipitation, air vapor pressure and sunshine hours were collected from the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO for the 41 years from 1965 to 2005. The FAO Penman-Monteith equation was used to calculate the monthly reference evapotranspiration in the five synoptic stations and the evapotranspiration time series were formed. The unit root test was used to identify whether the time series was stationary, then using the Box-Jenkins method, seasonal ARIMA models were applied to the sample data. Table 1. The geographical location and climate conditions of the synoptic stations Station\tGeographical location\tAltitude (m\tMean air temperature (°C\tMean precipitation (mm\tClimate, according to the De Martonne index classification Longitude (E\tLatitude (N Annual\tMin. and Max. Esfahan\t51° 40'\t32° 37'\t1550.4\t16.36\t9.4-23.3\t122\tArid Semnan\t53° 33'\t35° 35'\t1130.8\t18.0\t12.4-23.8\t140\tArid Shiraz\t52° 36'\t29° 32'\t1484\t18.0\t10.2-25.9\t324\tSemi-arid Kerman\t56° 58'\t30° 15'\t1753.8\t15.6\t6.7-24.6\t142\tArid Yazd\t54° 17'\t31° 54'\t1237.2\t19.2\t11.8-26.0\t61\tArid Results and Discussion: The monthly meteorological data were used as input for the Ref-ET software and monthly reference

  5. Univaried models in the series of temperature of the air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leon Aristizabal Gloria esperanza

    2000-01-01

    The theoretical framework for the study of the air's temperature time series is the theory of stochastic processes, particularly those known as ARIMA, that make it possible to carry out a univaried analysis. ARIMA models are built in order to explain the structure of the monthly temperatures corresponding to the mean, the absolute maximum, absolute minimum, maximum mean and minimum mean temperatures, for four stations in Colombia. By means of those models, the possible evolution of the latter variables is estimated with predictive aims in mind. The application and utility of the models is discussed

  6. Pin failure modeling of the A series CABRI tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Young, M.F.; Portugal, J.L.

    1978-01-01

    The EXPAND pin fialure model, a research tool designed to model pin failure under prompt burst conditions, has been used to predict failure conditions for several of the A series CABRI tests as part of the United States participation in the CABRI Joint Project. The Project is an international program involving France, Germany, England, Japan, and the United States and has the goal of obtaining experimental data relating to the safety of LMFBR's. The A series, designed to simulate high ramp rate TOP conditions, initially utilizes single, fresh UO 2 pins of the PHENIX type in a flowing sodium loop. The pins are preheated at constant power in the CABRI reactor to establish steady state conditions (480 w/cm at the axial peak) and then subjected to a power pulse of 14 ms to 24 ms duration

  7. A Parsimonious Bootstrap Method to Model Natural Inflow Energy Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Brazilian energy generation and transmission system is quite peculiar in its dimension and characteristics. As such, it can be considered unique in the world. It is a high dimension hydrothermal system with huge participation of hydro plants. Such strong dependency on hydrological regimes implies uncertainties related to the energetic planning, requiring adequate modeling of the hydrological time series. This is carried out via stochastic simulations of monthly inflow series using the family of Periodic Autoregressive models, PAR(p, one for each period (month of the year. In this paper it is shown the problems in fitting these models by the current system, particularly the identification of the autoregressive order “p” and the corresponding parameter estimation. It is followed by a proposal of a new approach to set both the model order and the parameters estimation of the PAR(p models, using a nonparametric computational technique, known as Bootstrap. This technique allows the estimation of reliable confidence intervals for the model parameters. The obtained results using the Parsimonious Bootstrap Method of Moments (PBMOM produced not only more parsimonious model orders but also adherent stochastic scenarios and, in the long range, lead to a better use of water resources in the energy operation planning.

  8. Modelling of series of types of automated trenchless works tunneling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gendarz, P.; Rzasinski, R.

    2016-08-01

    Microtunneling is the newest method for making underground installations. Show method is the result of experience and methods applied in other, previous methods of trenchless underground works. It is considered reasonable to elaborate a series of types of construction of tunneling machines, to develop this particular earthworks method. There are many design solutions of machines, but the current goal is to develop non - excavation robotized machine. Erosion machines with main dimensions of the tunnels which are: 1600, 2000, 2500, 3150 are design with use of the computer aided methods. Series of types of construction of tunneling machines creating process was preceded by analysis of current state. The verification of practical methodology of creating the systematic part series was based on the designed erosion machines series of types. There were developed: method of construction similarity of the erosion machines, algorithmic methods of quantitative construction attributes variant analyzes in the I-DEAS advanced graphical program, relational and program parameterization. There manufacturing process of the parts will be created, which allows to verify the technological process on the CNC machines. The models of designed will be modified and the construction will be consulted with erosion machine users and manufacturers like: Tauber Rohrbau GmbH & Co.KG from Minster, OHL ZS a.s. from Brna,. The companies’ acceptance will result in practical verification by JUMARPOL company.

  9. Leveling of battery load and extension of battery life by serial connection of electric double layer capacitors with batteries for electric vehicles. Experimental results on the small model; Denki jidoshayo denchi to denki nijuso capacitor no chokuretsu setsuzoku ni yoru denchi futan no heijunka oyobi denchijumyo no enshinka. (kogata model ni yoru jikken seika). Kogata model ni yoru jikken seika

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takehara, J.; Okubo, N.; Miyaoka, K. [Chugoku Electric Power Co. Inc., Hiroshima (Japan)

    1996-10-25

    The load leveling method of batteries for electric vehicles was studied for extension of a battery life and mileage every charging. Under large load fluctuation conditions such as deceleration and acceleration, use of electric power sources other than battery for peek load at acceleration can improve a battery life, output power capacity and mileage every charging. Combination of effective recovery of regenerative power at deceleration with its discharge at acceleration is one of the effective methods. The electric double layer capacitors are serially connected with the batteries, regenerative power is charged only into the capacitors, and both voltages of the battery and capacitor are applied to a power circuit. Battery load is reduced by load on the capacitor. Until the capacitor is re-charged by regenerative power after full discharge, power is supplied only by battery through a diode. Capacitor power is used as effectively as possible until approaching considerably low voltage. As peak load of the battery is reduced by 30%, the mileage increases by 5.7%, and the battery cycle life becomes 1.5 times longer. 7 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.

  10. Physics constrained nonlinear regression models for time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majda, Andrew J; Harlim, John

    2013-01-01

    A central issue in contemporary science is the development of data driven statistical nonlinear dynamical models for time series of partial observations of nature or a complex physical model. It has been established recently that ad hoc quadratic multi-level regression (MLR) models can have finite-time blow up of statistical solutions and/or pathological behaviour of their invariant measure. Here a new class of physics constrained multi-level quadratic regression models are introduced, analysed and applied to build reduced stochastic models from data of nonlinear systems. These models have the advantages of incorporating memory effects in time as well as the nonlinear noise from energy conserving nonlinear interactions. The mathematical guidelines for the performance and behaviour of these physics constrained MLR models as well as filtering algorithms for their implementation are developed here. Data driven applications of these new multi-level nonlinear regression models are developed for test models involving a nonlinear oscillator with memory effects and the difficult test case of the truncated Burgers–Hopf model. These new physics constrained quadratic MLR models are proposed here as process models for Bayesian estimation through Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms of low frequency behaviour in complex physical data. (paper)

  11. State-space prediction model for chaotic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alparslan, A. K.; Sayar, M.; Atilgan, A. R.

    1998-08-01

    A simple method for predicting the continuation of scalar chaotic time series ahead in time is proposed. The false nearest neighbors technique in connection with the time-delayed embedding is employed so as to reconstruct the state space. A local forecasting model based upon the time evolution of the topological neighboring in the reconstructed phase space is suggested. A moving root-mean-square error is utilized in order to monitor the error along the prediction horizon. The model is tested for the convection amplitude of the Lorenz model. The results indicate that for approximately 100 cycles of the training data, the prediction follows the actual continuation very closely about six cycles. The proposed model, like other state-space forecasting models, captures the long-term behavior of the system due to the use of spatial neighbors in the state space.

  12. Single-Index Additive Vector Autoregressive Time Series Models

    KAUST Repository

    LI, YEHUA

    2009-09-01

    We study a new class of nonlinear autoregressive models for vector time series, where the current vector depends on single-indexes defined on the past lags and the effects of different lags have an additive form. A sufficient condition is provided for stationarity of such models. We also study estimation of the proposed model using P-splines, hypothesis testing, asymptotics, selection of the order of the autoregression and of the smoothing parameters and nonlinear forecasting. We perform simulation experiments to evaluate our model in various settings. We illustrate our methodology on a climate data set and show that our model provides more accurate yearly forecasts of the El Niño phenomenon, the unusual warming of water in the Pacific Ocean. © 2009 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.

  13. Stochastic series expansion simulation of the t -V model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Liu, Ye-Hua; Troyer, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    We present an algorithm for the efficient simulation of the half-filled spinless t -V model on bipartite lattices, which combines the stochastic series expansion method with determinantal quantum Monte Carlo techniques widely used in fermionic simulations. The algorithm scales linearly in the inverse temperature, cubically with the system size, and is free from the time-discretization error. We use it to map out the finite-temperature phase diagram of the spinless t -V model on the honeycomb lattice and observe a suppression of the critical temperature of the charge-density-wave phase in the vicinity of a fermionic quantum critical point.

  14. Disease management with ARIMA model in time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Renato Cesar

    2013-01-01

    The evaluation of infectious and noninfectious disease management can be done through the use of a time series analysis. In this study, we expect to measure the results and prevent intervention effects on the disease. Clinical studies have benefited from the use of these techniques, particularly for the wide applicability of the ARIMA model. This study briefly presents the process of using the ARIMA model. This analytical tool offers a great contribution for researchers and healthcare managers in the evaluation of healthcare interventions in specific populations.

  15. Fractal Structures For Mems Variable Capacitors

    KAUST Repository

    Elshurafa, Amro M.

    2014-08-28

    In accordance with the present disclosure, one embodiment of a fractal variable capacitor comprises a capacitor body in a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) structure, wherein the capacitor body has an upper first metal plate with a fractal shape separated by a vertical distance from a lower first metal plate with a complementary fractal shape; and a substrate above which the capacitor body is suspended.

  16. Polyvinylidene fluoride film as a capacitor dielectric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dematos, H. V.

    1981-01-01

    Thin strips of polyvinylidene fluoride film (PVDF) with vacuum deposited electrodes were made into capacitors by conventional winding and fabrication techniques. These devices were used to identify and evaluate the performance characteristics offered by the PVDF in metallized film capacitors. Variations in capacitor parameters with temperature and frequence were evaluated and compared with other dielectric films. Their impact on capacitor applications is discussed.

  17. Ferroelectric Fractional-Order Capacitors

    KAUST Repository

    Agambayev, Agamyrat

    2017-07-25

    Poly(vinylidene fluoride)-based polymers and their blends are used to fabricate electrostatic fractional-order capacitors. This simple but effective method allows us to precisely tune the constant phase angle of the resulting fractional-order capacitor by changing the blend composition. Additionally, we have derived an empirical relation between the ratio of the blend constituents and the constant phase angle to facilitate the design of a fractional order capacitor with a desired constant phase angle. The structural composition of the fabricated blends is investigated using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction techniques.

  18. Ferroelectric Fractional-Order Capacitors

    KAUST Repository

    Agambayev, Agamyrat; Patole, Shashikant P.; Farhat, Mohamed; Elwakil, Ahmed; Bagci, Hakan; Salama, Khaled N.

    2017-01-01

    Poly(vinylidene fluoride)-based polymers and their blends are used to fabricate electrostatic fractional-order capacitors. This simple but effective method allows us to precisely tune the constant phase angle of the resulting fractional-order capacitor by changing the blend composition. Additionally, we have derived an empirical relation between the ratio of the blend constituents and the constant phase angle to facilitate the design of a fractional order capacitor with a desired constant phase angle. The structural composition of the fabricated blends is investigated using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction techniques.

  19. Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Peihua; Zhu, Anding; Fang, Qiwen; Wang, Xi

    Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public social communities

  20. Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peihua Fu

    Full Text Available Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data.We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution.We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation.To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public

  1. Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Qiwen; Wang, Xi

    2016-01-01

    Background Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. Methods We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. Results We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. Conclusion To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount

  2. Optimization of recurrent neural networks for time series modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Morten With

    1997-01-01

    The present thesis is about optimization of recurrent neural networks applied to time series modeling. In particular is considered fully recurrent networks working from only a single external input, one layer of nonlinear hidden units and a li near output unit applied to prediction of discrete time...... series. The overall objective s are to improve training by application of second-order methods and to improve generalization ability by architecture optimization accomplished by pruning. The major topics covered in the thesis are: 1. The problem of training recurrent networks is analyzed from a numerical...... of solution obtained as well as computation time required. 3. A theoretical definition of the generalization error for recurrent networks is provided. This definition justifies a commonly adopted approach for estimating generalization ability. 4. The viability of pruning recurrent networks by the Optimal...

  3. Effect of capacitor loss on discharging characteristics of xenon flash lamp

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Chu; Lin Dejiang; Xu Chunmei; Shen Hongbin; Chen Xiaohan

    2012-01-01

    The effect of storage capacitor's loss on the discharging characteristics of the xenon flash lamp was studied, and the xenon flash lamp discharging circuit was analyzed and improved. The capacitor can be equivalent to a series of an ideal capacitor and loss resistance. The improved formula of the xenon lamp discharging characteristics was given when actual capacitance loss is not zero, and the xenon lamp discharging current and discharging power are calculated and analyzed in detail with the increase of the capacitor loss. The results show that the increase of loss will lead to the decrease of xenon lamp discharging current and peak power and the xenon lamp flash time, and influence laser pumping efficiency. The loss will also lead to the capacitor inverse charging in LC discharging circuit; this will influence normal working of the capacitor and decrease the lift of the xenon lamp. The actual energy storage capacitor charging and discharging experiments show that the increase of capacitor loss will lead to the decrease of xenon lamp light-emitting waveform peak, shortening of the flash time and increase of the electrode sputter, thus verity, the reasonableness of theoretical analysis. In addition, the experiments show that environmental factors have very significant impact on the increase of the storage capacitor loss. (authors)

  4. A Power-Efficient Wireless Capacitor Charging System Through an Inductive Link.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyung-Min; Ghovanloo, Maysam

    2013-10-01

    A power-efficient wireless capacitor charging system for inductively powered applications has been presented. A bank of capacitors can be directly charged from an ac source by generating a current through a series charge injection capacitor and a capacitor charger circuit. The fixed charging current reduces energy loss in switches, while maximizing the charging efficiency. An adaptive capacitor tuner compensates for the resonant capacitance variations during charging to keep the amplitude of the ac input voltage at its peak. We have fabricated the capacitor charging system prototype in a 0.35- μ m 4-metal 2-poly standard CMOS process in 2.1 mm 2 of chip area. It can charge four pairs of capacitors sequentially. While receiving 2.7-V peak ac input through a 2-MHz inductive link, the capacitor charging system can charge each pair of 1 μ F capacitors up to ±2 V in 420 μ s, achieving a high measured charging efficiency of 82%.

  5. Hybrid perturbation methods based on statistical time series models

    Science.gov (United States)

    San-Juan, Juan Félix; San-Martín, Montserrat; Pérez, Iván; López, Rosario

    2016-04-01

    In this work we present a new methodology for orbit propagation, the hybrid perturbation theory, based on the combination of an integration method and a prediction technique. The former, which can be a numerical, analytical or semianalytical theory, generates an initial approximation that contains some inaccuracies derived from the fact that, in order to simplify the expressions and subsequent computations, not all the involved forces are taken into account and only low-order terms are considered, not to mention the fact that mathematical models of perturbations not always reproduce physical phenomena with absolute precision. The prediction technique, which can be based on either statistical time series models or computational intelligence methods, is aimed at modelling and reproducing missing dynamics in the previously integrated approximation. This combination results in the precision improvement of conventional numerical, analytical and semianalytical theories for determining the position and velocity of any artificial satellite or space debris object. In order to validate this methodology, we present a family of three hybrid orbit propagators formed by the combination of three different orders of approximation of an analytical theory and a statistical time series model, and analyse their capability to process the effect produced by the flattening of the Earth. The three considered analytical components are the integration of the Kepler problem, a first-order and a second-order analytical theories, whereas the prediction technique is the same in the three cases, namely an additive Holt-Winters method.

  6. On the maximum-entropy/autoregressive modeling of time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, B. F.

    1984-01-01

    The autoregressive (AR) model of a random process is interpreted in the light of the Prony's relation which relates a complex conjugate pair of poles of the AR process in the z-plane (or the z domain) on the one hand, to the complex frequency of one complex harmonic function in the time domain on the other. Thus the AR model of a time series is one that models the time series as a linear combination of complex harmonic functions, which include pure sinusoids and real exponentials as special cases. An AR model is completely determined by its z-domain pole configuration. The maximum-entropy/autogressive (ME/AR) spectrum, defined on the unit circle of the z-plane (or the frequency domain), is nothing but a convenient, but ambiguous visual representation. It is asserted that the position and shape of a spectral peak is determined by the corresponding complex frequency, and the height of the spectral peak contains little information about the complex amplitude of the complex harmonic functions.

  7. Fractal Structures For Fixed Mems Capacitors

    KAUST Repository

    Elshurafa, Amro M.

    2014-08-28

    An embodiment of a fractal fixed capacitor comprises a capacitor body in a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) structure. The capacitor body has a first plate with a fractal shape separated by a horizontal distance from a second plate with a fractal shape. The first plate and the second plate are within the same plane. Such a fractal fixed capacitor further comprises a substrate above which the capacitor body is positioned.

  8. Fractal Structures For Fixed Mems Capacitors

    KAUST Repository

    Elshurafa, Amro M.; Radwan, Ahmed Gomaa Ahmed; Emira, Ahmed A.; Salama, Khaled N.

    2014-01-01

    An embodiment of a fractal fixed capacitor comprises a capacitor body in a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) structure. The capacitor body has a first plate with a fractal shape separated by a horizontal distance from a second plate with a fractal shape. The first plate and the second plate are within the same plane. Such a fractal fixed capacitor further comprises a substrate above which the capacitor body is positioned.

  9. Subsynchronous resonance - identification of the resonance modes in systems with series compensation; Ressonancia subsincrona - identificacao dos modos ressonantes em sistemas dotados de compensacao-serie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rocha, J J [Brasilia Univ., DF (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Eletrica; Camargo, B C.C. [Santa Catarina Univ., Florianopolis, SC (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Eletrica

    1988-12-31

    This work shows the phenomenon and mechanism of the subsynchronous resonance, as well as it presents the modelling and simulation of a electromechanics system to verify the adequacy of the use of series capacitor in systems that has turbogenerators 4 refs., 7 figs., 3 tabs.

  10. Ferroelectric capacitor with reduced imprint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jr., Joseph T.; Warren, William L.; Tuttle, Bruce A.; Dimos, Duane B.; Pike, Gordon E.

    1997-01-01

    An improved ferroelectric capacitor exhibiting reduced imprint effects in comparison to prior art capacitors. A capacitor according to the present invention includes top and bottom electrodes and a ferroelectric layer sandwiched between the top and bottom electrodes, the ferroelectric layer comprising a perovskite structure of the chemical composition ABO.sub.3 wherein the B-site comprises first and second elements and a dopant element that has an oxidation state greater than +4. The concentration of the dopant is sufficient to reduce shifts in the coercive voltage of the capacitor with time. In the preferred embodiment of the present invention, the ferroelectric element comprises Pb in the A-site, and the first and second elements are Zr and Ti, respectively. The preferred dopant is chosen from the group consisting of Niobium, Tantalum, and Tungsten. In the preferred embodiment of the present invention, the dopant occupies between 1 and 8% of the B-sites.

  11. Mutual capacitor and its applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Li

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a new ac circuit element – the mutual capacitor, being a dual of the mutual inductor, which is also a new ac transformer. This element is characteristic of the mutual-capacitance coupling of a multi-capacitance system. A unity-coupled mutual capacitor works as an ideal current or voltage transformer, and incidentally acts as waveform separating when inductor employed or waveform converting from square-wave to quasi-sine or waveform filtering, between ports. As a transformer, the mutual capacitor is easy to design, easy for heat cooling, more accurate for current or voltage transformation, dissipating less energy as well as saving materials, suitable for high-power and high-voltage applications. Experiments to demonstrate performances of unity-coupled mutual capacitors are also given.

  12. Force on an Asymmetric Capacitor

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bahder, Thomas

    2003-01-01

    .... At present, the physical basis for the Biefeld-Brown effect is not understood. The order of magnitude of the net force on the asymmetric capacitor is estimated assuming two different mechanisms of charge conduction between its electrodes...

  13. High density energy storage capacitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whitham, K.; Howland, M.M.; Hutzler, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    The Nova laser system will use 130 MJ of capacitive energy storage and have a peak power capability of 250,000 MW. This capacitor bank is a significant portion of the laser cost and requires a large portion of the physical facilities. In order to reduce the cost and volume required by the bank, the Laser Fusion Program funded contracts with three energy storage capacitor producers: Aerovox, G.E., and Maxwell Laboratories, to develop higher energy density, lower cost energy storage capacitors. This paper describes the designs which resulted from the Aerovox development contract, and specifically addresses the design and initial life testing of a 12.5 kJ, 22 kV capacitor with a density of 4.2 J/in 3 and a projected cost in the range of 5 cents per joule

  14. Modeling financial time series with S-plus

    CERN Document Server

    Zivot, Eric

    2003-01-01

    The field of financial econometrics has exploded over the last decade This book represents an integration of theory, methods, and examples using the S-PLUS statistical modeling language and the S+FinMetrics module to facilitate the practice of financial econometrics This is the first book to show the power of S-PLUS for the analysis of time series data It is written for researchers and practitioners in the finance industry, academic researchers in economics and finance, and advanced MBA and graduate students in economics and finance Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of S-PLUS and a solid grounding in basic statistics and time series concepts Eric Zivot is an associate professor and Gary Waterman Distinguished Scholar in the Economics Department at the University of Washington, and is co-director of the nascent Professional Master's Program in Computational Finance He regularly teaches courses on econometric theory, financial econometrics and time series econometrics, and is the recipient of the He...

  15. Clustering Multivariate Time Series Using Hidden Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shima Ghassempour

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe an algorithm for clustering multivariate time series with variables taking both categorical and continuous values. Time series of this type are frequent in health care, where they represent the health trajectories of individuals. The problem is challenging because categorical variables make it difficult to define a meaningful distance between trajectories. We propose an approach based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs, where we first map each trajectory into an HMM, then define a suitable distance between HMMs and finally proceed to cluster the HMMs with a method based on a distance matrix. We test our approach on a simulated, but realistic, data set of 1,255 trajectories of individuals of age 45 and over, on a synthetic validation set with known clustering structure, and on a smaller set of 268 trajectories extracted from the longitudinal Health and Retirement Survey. The proposed method can be implemented quite simply using standard packages in R and Matlab and may be a good candidate for solving the difficult problem of clustering multivariate time series with categorical variables using tools that do not require advanced statistic knowledge, and therefore are accessible to a wide range of researchers.

  16. Assimilation of LAI time-series in crop production models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooistra, Lammert; Rijk, Bert; Nannes, Louis

    2014-05-01

    Agriculture is worldwide a large consumer of freshwater, nutrients and land. Spatial explicit agricultural management activities (e.g., fertilization, irrigation) could significantly improve efficiency in resource use. In previous studies and operational applications, remote sensing has shown to be a powerful method for spatio-temporal monitoring of actual crop status. As a next step, yield forecasting by assimilating remote sensing based plant variables in crop production models would improve agricultural decision support both at the farm and field level. In this study we investigated the potential of remote sensing based Leaf Area Index (LAI) time-series assimilated in the crop production model LINTUL to improve yield forecasting at field level. The effect of assimilation method and amount of assimilated observations was evaluated. The LINTUL-3 crop production model was calibrated and validated for a potato crop on two experimental fields in the south of the Netherlands. A range of data sources (e.g., in-situ soil moisture and weather sensors, destructive crop measurements) was used for calibration of the model for the experimental field in 2010. LAI from cropscan field radiometer measurements and actual LAI measured with the LAI-2000 instrument were used as input for the LAI time-series. The LAI time-series were assimilated in the LINTUL model and validated for a second experimental field on which potatoes were grown in 2011. Yield in 2011 was simulated with an R2 of 0.82 when compared with field measured yield. Furthermore, we analysed the potential of assimilation of LAI into the LINTUL-3 model through the 'updating' assimilation technique. The deviation between measured and simulated yield decreased from 9371 kg/ha to 8729 kg/ha when assimilating weekly LAI measurements in the LINTUL model over the season of 2011. LINTUL-3 furthermore shows the main growth reducing factors, which are useful for farm decision support. The combination of crop models and sensor

  17. Efficiency Improvement of Capacitor Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Kashcheev

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A system of modernized capacitor ball-cleaning that prevents formation of depositions on internal capacitor tube surface has been developed in the paper.The system has been introduced at the Minsk TPP-4 (Power Block No.5. The paper presupposes that the economic effect will be nearly 0.43 million US dollars per year at one poer block with turbine Т-250/300-240.

  18. PLZT capacitor on glass substrate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairchild, M. Ray; Taylor, Ralph S.; Berlin, Carl W.; Wong, Celine W. K.; Ma, Beihai; Balachandran, Uthamalingam

    2016-01-05

    A lead-lanthanum-zirconium-titanate (PLZT) capacitor on a substrate formed of glass. The first metallization layer is deposited on a top side of the substrate to form a first electrode. The dielectric layer of PLZT is deposited over the first metallization layer. The second metallization layer deposited over the dielectric layer to form a second electrode. The glass substrate is advantageous as glass is compatible with an annealing process used to form the capacitor.

  19. Radiation effects in polycarbonate capacitors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vujisić Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to examine the influence of neutron and gamma irradiation on the dissipation factor and capacitance of capacitors with polycarbonate dielectrics. The operation of capacitors subject to extreme conditions, such as the presence of ionizing radiation fields, is of special concern in military industry and space technology. Results obtained show that the exposure to a mixed neutron and gamma radiation field causes a decrease of capacitance, while the loss tangent remains unchanged.

  20. Empirical intrinsic geometry for nonlinear modeling and time series filtering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talmon, Ronen; Coifman, Ronald R

    2013-07-30

    In this paper, we present a method for time series analysis based on empirical intrinsic geometry (EIG). EIG enables one to reveal the low-dimensional parametric manifold as well as to infer the underlying dynamics of high-dimensional time series. By incorporating concepts of information geometry, this method extends existing geometric analysis tools to support stochastic settings and parametrizes the geometry of empirical distributions. However, the statistical models are not required as priors; hence, EIG may be applied to a wide range of real signals without existing definitive models. We show that the inferred model is noise-resilient and invariant under different observation and instrumental modalities. In addition, we show that it can be extended efficiently to newly acquired measurements in a sequential manner. These two advantages enable us to revisit the Bayesian approach and incorporate empirical dynamics and intrinsic geometry into a nonlinear filtering framework. We show applications to nonlinear and non-Gaussian tracking problems as well as to acoustic signal localization.

  1. Characterization system for research on energy storage capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noriega, J. R.; Iyore, O. D.; Budime, C.; Gnade, B.; Vasselli, J.

    2013-05-01

    In this work a characterization system for high energy-density capacitors is described and demonstrated. Capacitors are being designed using thin-film technology in an attempt to achieve higher energy-density levels by operating the devices at a high voltage. These devices are fabricated from layers of 100 nm aluminum and a layer of polyvinylidene fluoride-hexafluoropropylene on a polyethylene naphthalate plastic substrate. The devices have been designed to store electrical charge at up to 200 V. Characterizations of these devices focus on the measurement of capacitance vs bias voltage and temperature, equivalent series resistance, and charge/discharge cycles. For the purpose of the characterization of these capacitors, an electronic charge/discharge interface was designed and tested.

  2. Empirical investigation on modeling solar radiation series with ARMA–GARCH models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Yan, Dong; Zhao, Na; Zhou, Jianzhong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Apply 6 ARMA–GARCH(-M) models to model and forecast solar radiation. • The ARMA–GARCH(-M) models produce more accurate radiation forecasting than conventional methods. • Show that ARMA–GARCH-M models are more effective for forecasting solar radiation mean and volatility. • The ARMA–EGARCH-M is robust and the ARMA–sGARCH-M is very competitive. - Abstract: Simulation of radiation is one of the most important issues in solar utilization. Time series models are useful tools in the estimation and forecasting of solar radiation series and their changes. In this paper, the effectiveness of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models with various generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) processes, namely ARMA–GARCH models are evaluated for their effectiveness in radiation series. Six different GARCH approaches, which contain three different ARMA–GARCH models and corresponded GARCH in mean (ARMA–GARCH-M) models, are applied in radiation data sets from two representative climate stations in China. Multiple evaluation metrics of modeling sufficiency are used for evaluating the performances of models. The results show that the ARMA–GARCH(-M) models are effective in radiation series estimation. Both in fitting and prediction of radiation series, the ARMA–GARCH(-M) models show better modeling sufficiency than traditional models, while ARMA–EGARCH-M models are robustness in two sites and the ARMA–sGARCH-M models appear very competitive. Comparisons of statistical diagnostics and model performance clearly show that the ARMA–GARCH-M models make the mean radiation equations become more sufficient. It is recommended the ARMA–GARCH(-M) models to be the preferred method to use in the modeling of solar radiation series

  3. Incorporating Satellite Time-Series Data into Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson

    2008-01-01

    In situ time series observations have provided a multi-decadal view of long-term changes in ocean biology. These observations are sufficiently reliable to enable discernment of even relatively small changes, and provide continuous information on a host of variables. Their key drawback is their limited domain. Satellite observations from ocean color sensors do not suffer the drawback of domain, and simultaneously view the global oceans. This attribute lends credence to their use in global and regional model validation and data assimilation. We focus on these applications using the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model. The enhancement of the satellite data using data assimilation is featured and the limitation of tongterm satellite data sets is also discussed.

  4. Circuit modeling on polyaniline functionalized nanowire-templated micro-interdigital capacitors for pH sensing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antohe, V.A.; Radu, A.; Mátéfi-Tempfli, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    This study presents an improved alternative current (ac) circuit modeling of a highly sensitive capacitive pH-sensing element based on polyaniline (PANI) functionalized nanowire-templated micro-interdigited electrodes (NWs μIDEs). While electrical resonance measurements deal with a total equivale...

  5. Self-organising mixture autoregressive model for non-stationary time series modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, He; Yin, Hujun

    2008-12-01

    Modelling non-stationary time series has been a difficult task for both parametric and nonparametric methods. One promising solution is to combine the flexibility of nonparametric models with the simplicity of parametric models. In this paper, the self-organising mixture autoregressive (SOMAR) network is adopted as a such mixture model. It breaks time series into underlying segments and at the same time fits local linear regressive models to the clusters of segments. In such a way, a global non-stationary time series is represented by a dynamic set of local linear regressive models. Neural gas is used for a more flexible structure of the mixture model. Furthermore, a new similarity measure has been introduced in the self-organising network to better quantify the similarity of time series segments. The network can be used naturally in modelling and forecasting non-stationary time series. Experiments on artificial, benchmark time series (e.g. Mackey-Glass) and real-world data (e.g. numbers of sunspots and Forex rates) are presented and the results show that the proposed SOMAR network is effective and superior to other similar approaches.

  6. Leakage Currents in Low-Voltage PME and BME Ceramic Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teverovsky, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Introduction of BME capacitors to high-reliability electronics as a replacement for PME capacitors requires better understanding of changes in performance and reliability of MLCCs to set justified screening and qualification requirements. In this work, absorption and leakage currents in various lots of commercial and military grade X7R MLCCs rated to 100V and less have been measured to reveal difference in behavior of PME and BME capacitors in a wide range of voltages and temperatures. Degradation of leakage currents and failures in virgin capacitors and capacitors with introduced cracks has been studied at different voltages and temperatures during step stress highly accelerated life testing. Mechanisms of charge absorption, conduction and degradation have been discussed and a failure model in capacitors with defects suggested.

  7. A Humidity-Dependent Lifetime Derating Factor for DC Film Capacitors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Reigosa, Paula Diaz; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2015-01-01

    accelerated testing of film capacitors under different humidity conditions, enabling a more justified lifetime prediction of film capacitors for DC-link applications under specific climatic environments. The analysis of the testing results and the detailed discussion on the derating factor with different......Film capacitors are widely assumed to have superior reliability performance than Aluminum electrolytic capacitors in DC-link design of power electronic converters. However, the assumption needs to be critically judged especially for applications under high humidity environments. This paper proposes...... a humidity-dependent lifetime derating factor for a type of plastic-boxed metallized DC film capacitors. It overcomes the limitation that the humidity impact is not considered in the state-of-the-art DC film capacitor lifetime models. The lifetime derating factor is obtained based on a total of 8,700 hours...

  8. Electrically and thermally activated ageing mechanisms in metallised polymer film capacitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yuen Pen

    2001-01-01

    This dissertation describes a combined computational and experimental study to understand the fundamental electrostatic, thermal, electromagnetic, and discharge related processes during the ageing of metallised polymer film capacitors. In the event of internal breakdowns, these capacitors are capable of 'self-healing' through a controlled isolation of defects on the electrode surfaces by mosaic patterning the electrode. The objective of this project is to develop viable computer models to unravel electrothermally activated ageing processes in capacitors. To provide the necessary validation to any capacitor models developed, our work is supported by comprehensive experiments including industrial standard accelerated life tests and associated breakdown damage analyses of tested capacitors. These have enabled an empirical identification of main factors affecting the reliability and lifetime of capacitors. Relevant raw data and the qualitative picture enabled by these data are crucial to the development and refinement of viable computational models of capacitors. Given the complexity of ageing processes, it is both very difficult and unnecessary to develop a one-for-all model that describes indiscriminately all relevant processes. The approach adapted in this work has been to prioritise key ageing processes and modularise each process with its own computer model. The overall picture of capacitor ageing can then be unravelled by integrating all modules together. For instance, the fine geometrical features of the electrode mosaic pattern and the capacitor's laminated structure have been assessed through a concept of field intensification using a 2D electrostatic finite element computation. With fine geometrical features accounted for by the field intensification concept, fast electric events in capacitors can be simulated using a simple equivalent circuit model. Similar assessment of heat transfer has led to an equally efficient modelling of thermal events in capacitors

  9. Time series modelling and forecasting of emergency department overcrowding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadri, Farid; Harrou, Fouzi; Chaabane, Sondès; Tahon, Christian

    2014-09-01

    Efficient management of patient flow (demand) in emergency departments (EDs) has become an urgent issue for many hospital administrations. Today, more and more attention is being paid to hospital management systems to optimally manage patient flow and to improve management strategies, efficiency and safety in such establishments. To this end, EDs require significant human and material resources, but unfortunately these are limited. Within such a framework, the ability to accurately forecast demand in emergency departments has considerable implications for hospitals to improve resource allocation and strategic planning. The aim of this study was to develop models for forecasting daily attendances at the hospital emergency department in Lille, France. The study demonstrates how time-series analysis can be used to forecast, at least in the short term, demand for emergency services in a hospital emergency department. The forecasts were based on daily patient attendances at the paediatric emergency department in Lille regional hospital centre, France, from January 2012 to December 2012. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method was applied separately to each of the two GEMSA categories and total patient attendances. Time-series analysis was shown to provide a useful, readily available tool for forecasting emergency department demand.

  10. Capacitor voltage ripple reduction and arm energy balancing in MMC-HVDC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parikh, Harsh; Martin-Loeches, Ruben Sánches; Tsolaridis, Georgios

    2016-01-01

    Modular Multilevel Converters are emerging and widely used in HVDC applications. However, the submodule capacitors are still large and the energy balancing under unbalanced conditions is a challenge. In this paper, an analytical model focusing on the energy stored in the capacitors and voltage...... variations is utilized in order to achieve better performance. By injecting a second order harmonic component into the circulating current, the energy variation and consequently the capacitor voltage ripple is reduced allowing for a capacitor size reduction. At the same time, an arm energy balancing...

  11. Electromechanical capacitor for energy transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carroll, T.A.; Chowdhuri, P.; Marshall, J.

    1983-01-01

    Inductive energy transfer between two magnets can be achieved with almost 100% efficiency with a transfer capacitor. However, the bulk and cost will be high, and reliability low if conventional capacitors are used. A homopolar machine, used as a capacitor, will be compact and economical. A homopolar machine was designed with counter-rotating copper disks completely immersed in a liquid metal (NaK-78) to work as a pulse capacitor. Absence of solid-brush collectors minimized wear and frictional losses. Wetting of the copper disks throughout the periphery by the liquid metal minimized the resistive losses at the collector interface. A liquid-metal collector would, however, introduce hydrodynamic and magnetohydrodynamic losses. The selected liquid metal, e.g., NaK-78 will produce the lowest of such losses among the available liquid metals. An electromechanical capacitor of this design was tested at various dc magnetic fields. Its measured capacitance was about 100 farads at a dc magnetic field of 1.15 tesla

  12. Optimal model-free prediction from multivariate time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Jakob; Donner, Reik V.; Kurths, Jürgen

    2015-05-01

    Forecasting a time series from multivariate predictors constitutes a challenging problem, especially using model-free approaches. Most techniques, such as nearest-neighbor prediction, quickly suffer from the curse of dimensionality and overfitting for more than a few predictors which has limited their application mostly to the univariate case. Therefore, selection strategies are needed that harness the available information as efficiently as possible. Since often the right combination of predictors matters, ideally all subsets of possible predictors should be tested for their predictive power, but the exponentially growing number of combinations makes such an approach computationally prohibitive. Here a prediction scheme that overcomes this strong limitation is introduced utilizing a causal preselection step which drastically reduces the number of possible predictors to the most predictive set of causal drivers making a globally optimal search scheme tractable. The information-theoretic optimality is derived and practical selection criteria are discussed. As demonstrated for multivariate nonlinear stochastic delay processes, the optimal scheme can even be less computationally expensive than commonly used suboptimal schemes like forward selection. The method suggests a general framework to apply the optimal model-free approach to select variables and subsequently fit a model to further improve a prediction or learn statistical dependencies. The performance of this framework is illustrated on a climatological index of El Niño Southern Oscillation.

  13. Shapeable short circuit resistant capacitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Ralph S.; Myers, John D.; Baney, William J.

    2015-10-06

    A ceramic short circuit resistant capacitor that is bendable and/or shapeable to provide a multiple layer capacitor that is extremely compact and amenable to desirable geometries. The capacitor that exhibits a benign failure mode in which a multitude of discrete failure events result in a gradual loss of capacitance. Each event is a localized event in which localized heating causes an adjacent portion of one or both of the electrodes to vaporize, physically cleaning away electrode material from the failure site. A first metal electrode, a second metal electrode, and a ceramic dielectric layer between the electrodes are thin enough to be formed in a serpentine-arrangement with gaps between the first electrode and the second electrode that allow venting of vaporized electrode material in the event of a benign failure.

  14. Structural integrity of ceramic multilayer capacitor materials and ceramic multilayer capacitors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    With, de G.

    1993-01-01

    An review with 61 refs. is given of the fracture of and stress situation in ceramic capacitor materials and ceramic multilayer capacitors. A brief introduction to the relevant concepts is given first. Next the data for capacitor materials and the data for capacitors are discussed. The materials data

  15. Super miniaturization of film capacitor dielectrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavene, B.

    1981-01-01

    The alignment of the stable electrical characteristics of film capacitors in the physical dimensions of ceramic and tantalum capacitors are discussed. The reliability of polycarbonate and mylar capacitors are described with respect to their compatibility with military specifications. Graphic illustrations are presented which show electrical and physical comparisons of film, ceramic, and tantalum capacitors. The major focus is on volumetric efficiency, weight reduction, and electrical stability.

  16. An SVM model with hybrid kernels for hydrological time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, C.; Wang, H.; Zhao, X.; Xie, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Support Vector Machine (SVM) models have been widely applied to the forecast of climate/weather and its impact on other environmental variables such as hydrologic response to climate/weather. When using SVM, the choice of the kernel function plays the key role. Conventional SVM models mostly use one single type of kernel function, e.g., radial basis kernel function. Provided that there are several featured kernel functions available, each having its own advantages and drawbacks, a combination of these kernel functions may give more flexibility and robustness to SVM approach, making it suitable for a wide range of application scenarios. This paper presents such a linear combination of radial basis kernel and polynomial kernel for the forecast of monthly flowrate in two gaging stations using SVM approach. The results indicate significant improvement in the accuracy of predicted series compared to the approach with either individual kernel function, thus demonstrating the feasibility and advantages of such hybrid kernel approach for SVM applications.

  17. Integrated capacitor arrangement for ultrahigh capacitance values

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozeboom, F.; Klootwijk, J.H.; Kemmeren, A.L.A.M.; Reefman, D.; Verhoeven, J.F.C.M.

    2011-01-01

    An electronic device includes at least one trench capacitor that can also take the form of an inverse structure, a pillar capacitor. An alternating layer sequence of at least two dielectric layers and at least two electrically conductive layers is provided in the trench capacitor or on the pillar

  18. Electrical characterization of thin film ferroelectric capacitors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tiggelman, M.P.J.; Reimann, K.; Klee, M.; Beelen, D.; Keur, W.; Schmitz, Jurriaan; Hueting, Raymond Josephus Engelbart

    2006-01-01

    Tunable capacitors can be used to facilitate the reduction of components in wireless technologies. The tunability of the capacitors is caused by the sensitivity of the relative dielectric constant to a change in polarization with electric field. Thin film ferroelectric MIM capacitors on silicon

  19. Switched-capacitor multiply-by-two amplifier with reduced capacitor mismatches sensitivity and full swing sample signal common-mode voltage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Xinnan; Yao Suying; Xu Jiangtao; Nie Kaiming

    2012-01-01

    A switched-capacitor amplifier with an accurate gain of two that is insensitive to component mismatch is proposed. This structure is based on associating two sets of two capacitors in cross series during the amplification phase. This circuit permits the common-mode voltage of the sample signal to reach full swing. Using the charge-complement technique, the proposed amplifier can reduce the impact of parasitic capacitors on the gain accuracy effectively. Simulation results show that as sample signal common-mode voltage changes, the difference between the minimum and maximum gain error is less than 0.03%. When the capacitor mismatch is increased from 0 to 0.2%, the gain error is deteriorated by 0.00015%. In all simulations, the gain of amplifier is 69 dB. (semiconductor integrated circuits)

  20. Identifying dielectric and resistive electrode losses in high-density capacitors at radio frequencies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tiggelman, M.P.J.; Reimann, K.; Liu, J.; Klee, M.; Keur, W.; Mauczock, R.; Schmitz, Jurriaan; Hueting, Raymond Josephus Engelbart

    2008-01-01

    A regression-based technique is presented which distinguishes the dielectric loss from the resistive loss of high density planar capacitors in a very wide bandwidth of 0.1–8 GHz. Moreover, the procedure yields useful results if the capacitor deviates from a lumped element model and indicates when

  1. Thin film barium strontium titanate capacitors for tunable RF front-end applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tiggelman, M.P.J.

    2009-01-01

    In this thesis, the results of intensive electrical characterization, modeling and the design of hardware with thin film tunable capacitors, i.e., dielectric varactors, has been presented and discussed. Especially the quality factor Q and the tuning ratio of the tunable capacitors have been studied,

  2. Thin stillage fractionation using ultrafiltration: resistance in series model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Amit; Dien, Bruce S; Belyea, Ronald L; Wang, Ping; Singh, Vijay; Tumbleson, M E; Rausch, Kent D

    2009-02-01

    The corn based dry grind process is the most widely used method in the US for fuel ethanol production. Fermentation of corn to ethanol produces whole stillage after ethanol is removed by distillation. It is centrifuged to separate thin stillage from wet grains. Thin stillage contains 5-10% solids. To concentrate solids of thin stillage, it requires evaporation of large amounts of water and maintenance of evaporators. Evaporator maintenance requires excess evaporator capacity at the facility, increasing capital expenses, requiring plant slowdowns or shut downs and results in revenue losses. Membrane filtration is one method that could lead to improved value of thin stillage and may offer an alternative to evaporation. Fractionation of thin stillage using ultrafiltration was conducted to evaluate membranes as an alternative to evaporators in the ethanol industry. Two regenerated cellulose membranes with molecular weight cut offs of 10 and 100 kDa were evaluated. Total solids (suspended and soluble) contents recovered through membrane separation process were similar to those from commercial evaporators. Permeate flux decline of thin stillage using a resistance in series model was determined. Each of the four components of total resistance was evaluated experimentally. Effects of operating variables such as transmembrane pressure and temperature on permeate flux rate and resistances were determined and optimum conditions for maximum flux rates were evaluated. Model equations were developed to evaluate the resistance components that are responsible for fouling and to predict total flux decline with respect to time. Modeling results were in agreement with experimental results (R(2) > 0.98).

  3. Neural network modeling of nonlinear systems based on Volterra series extension of a linear model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soloway, Donald I.; Bialasiewicz, Jan T.

    1992-01-01

    A Volterra series approach was applied to the identification of nonlinear systems which are described by a neural network model. A procedure is outlined by which a mathematical model can be developed from experimental data obtained from the network structure. Applications of the results to the control of robotic systems are discussed.

  4. Improved Dielectric Films For Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Shiao-Ping S.; Lewis, Carol R.; Cygan, Peter J.; Jow, T. Richard

    1994-01-01

    Dielectric films made from blends of some commercially available high-dielectric-constant cyanoresins with each other and with cellulose triacetate (CTA) have both high dielectric constants and high breakdown strengths. Dielectric constants as high as 16.2. Films used to produce high-energy-density capacitors.

  5. Compositionally Graded Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hyun-Cheol; Zhou, Jie E; Maurya, Deepam; Yan, Yongke; Wang, Yu U; Priya, Shashank

    2017-09-27

    Multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) are widely used in consumer electronics. Here, we provide a transformative method for achieving high dielectric response and tunability over a wide temperature range through design of compositionally graded multilayer (CGML) architecture. Compositionally graded MLCCs were found to exhibit enhanced dielectric tunability (70%) along with small dielectric losses (filters and power converters.

  6. Nanostructured Electrode Materials for Electrochemical Capacitor Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hojin; Yoon, Hyeonseok

    2015-06-02

    The advent of novel organic and inorganic nanomaterials in recent years, particularly nanostructured carbons, conducting polymers, and metal oxides, has enabled the fabrication of various energy devices with enhanced performance. In this paper, we review in detail different nanomaterials used in the fabrication of electrochemical capacitor electrodes and also give a brief overview of electric double-layer capacitors, pseudocapacitors, and hybrid capacitors. From a materials point of view, the latest trends in electrochemical capacitor research are also discussed through extensive analysis of the literature and by highlighting notable research examples (published mostly since 2013). Finally, a perspective on next-generation capacitor technology is also given, including the challenges that lie ahead.

  7. Comparison of topologies suitable for Capacitor Charging Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Maestri, S; Uicich, G; Benedetti, M; Cravero, JM

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a comparison between topologies suitable for capacitor charging systems. The topologies under evaluation are a flyback converter, a half-bridge series resonant converter and a full-bridge phase-shifted converter. The main features of these topologies are highlighted, which allows the proper topology selection according to the application requirements. Moreover, the performed analysis permits to characterize the operational range of the main components thus allowing their appropriate sizing and selection. Simulation results are provided.

  8. Time series analysis as input for clinical predictive modeling: modeling cardiac arrest in a pediatric ICU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Curtis E; Turley, James P

    2011-10-24

    Thousands of children experience cardiac arrest events every year in pediatric intensive care units. Most of these children die. Cardiac arrest prediction tools are used as part of medical emergency team evaluations to identify patients in standard hospital beds that are at high risk for cardiac arrest. There are no models to predict cardiac arrest in pediatric intensive care units though, where the risk of an arrest is 10 times higher than for standard hospital beds. Current tools are based on a multivariable approach that does not characterize deterioration, which often precedes cardiac arrests. Characterizing deterioration requires a time series approach. The purpose of this study is to propose a method that will allow for time series data to be used in clinical prediction models. Successful implementation of these methods has the potential to bring arrest prediction to the pediatric intensive care environment, possibly allowing for interventions that can save lives and prevent disabilities. We reviewed prediction models from nonclinical domains that employ time series data, and identified the steps that are necessary for building predictive models using time series clinical data. We illustrate the method by applying it to the specific case of building a predictive model for cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Time course analysis studies from genomic analysis provided a modeling template that was compatible with the steps required to develop a model from clinical time series data. The steps include: 1) selecting candidate variables; 2) specifying measurement parameters; 3) defining data format; 4) defining time window duration and resolution; 5) calculating latent variables for candidate variables not directly measured; 6) calculating time series features as latent variables; 7) creating data subsets to measure model performance effects attributable to various classes of candidate variables; 8) reducing the number of candidate features; 9

  9. time series modeling of daily abandoned calls in a call centre

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DJFLEX

    Models for evaluating and predicting the short periodic time series in daily ... Ugwuowo (2006) proposed asymmetric angular- linear multivariate regression models, ..... Using the parameter estimates in Table 3, the fitted Fourier series model is ..... For the SARIMA model with the stochastic component also being white noise, ...

  10. Modeling Financial Time Series Based on a Market Microstructure Model with Leverage Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Yanhui Xi; Hui Peng; Yemei Qin

    2016-01-01

    The basic market microstructure model specifies that the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation are independent Gaussian white noise processes. However, the financial leverage effect has been found to be statistically significant in many financial time series. In this paper, a novel market microstructure model with leverage effects is proposed. The model specification assumed a negative correlation in the errors between the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation....

  11. vector bilinear autoregressive time series model and its superiority

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    KEYWORDS: Linear time series, Autoregressive process, Autocorrelation function, Partial autocorrelation function,. Vector time .... important result on matrix algebra with respect to the spectral ..... application to covariance analysis of super-.

  12. The Exponential Model for the Spectrum of a Time Series: Extensions and Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Proietti, Tommaso; Luati, Alessandra

    The exponential model for the spectrum of a time series and its fractional extensions are based on the Fourier series expansion of the logarithm of the spectral density. The coefficients of the expansion form the cepstrum of the time series. After deriving the cepstrum of important classes of time...

  13. Rotation in the Dynamic Factor Modeling of Multivariate Stationary Time Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C. M.; Nesselroade, John R.

    2001-01-01

    Proposes a special rotation procedure for the exploratory dynamic factor model for stationary multivariate time series. The rotation procedure applies separately to each univariate component series of a q-variate latent factor series and transforms such a component, initially represented as white noise, into a univariate moving-average.…

  14. Rotation in the dynamic factor modeling of multivariate stationary time series.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molenaar, P.C.M.; Nesselroade, J.R.

    2001-01-01

    A special rotation procedure is proposed for the exploratory dynamic factor model for stationary multivariate time series. The rotation procedure applies separately to each univariate component series of a q-variate latent factor series and transforms such a component, initially represented as white

  15. The application of structural nonlinearity in the development of linearly tunable MEMS capacitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shavezipur, M; Khajepour, A; Hashemi, S M

    2008-01-01

    Electrostatically actuated parallel-plate tunable capacitors are the most desired MEMS capacitors because of their smaller sizes and higher Q-factors. However, these capacitors suffer from low tunability and exhibit high sensitivity near the pull-in voltage which counters the concept of tunability. In this paper, a novel design for parallel-plate tunable capacitors with high tunability and linear capacitance–voltage (C–V) response is developed. The design uses nonlinear structural rigidities to relieve intrinsic electrostatic nonlinearity in MEMS capacitors. Based on the force–displacement characteristic of an ideally linear capacitor, a real beam-like nonlinear spring model is developed. The variable stiffness coefficients of such springs improve the linearity of the C–V curve. Moreover, because the structural stiffness increases with deformations, the pull-in is delayed and higher tunability is achieved. Finite element simulations reveal that capacitors with air gaps larger than 4 µm and supporting beams thinner than 1 µm can generate highly linear C–V responses and tunabilities over 120%. Experimental results for capacitors fabricated by PolyMUMPs verify the effect of weak nonlinear geometric stiffness on improving the tunability for designs with a small air gap and relatively thick structural layers

  16. Optimal Capacitor Bank Capacity and Placement in Distribution Systems with High Distributed Solar Power Penetration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mather, Barry A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cho, Gyu-Jung [Sungkyunkwan University, Korea; Oh, Yun-Sik [Sungkyunkwan University, Korea; Kim, Min-Sung [Sungkyunkwan University, Korea; Kim, Ji-Soo [Sungkyunkwan University, Korea; Kim, Chul-Hwan [Sungkyunkwan University, Korea

    2018-02-01

    Capacitor banks have been generally installed and utilized to support distribution voltage during period of higher load or on longer, higher impedance, feeders. Installations of distributed energy resources in distribution systems are rapidly increasing, and many of these generation resources have variable and uncertain power output. These generators can significantly change the voltage profile across a feeder, and therefore when a new capacitor bank is needed analysis of optimal capacity and location of the capacitor bank is required. In this paper, we model a particular distribution system including essential equipment. An optimization method is adopted to determine the best capacity and location sets of the newly installed capacitor banks, in the presence of distributed solar power generation. Finally we analyze the optimal capacitor banks configuration through the optimization and simulation results.

  17. Reliability of Capacitors for DC-Link Applications in Power Electronic Converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2014-01-01

    DC-link capacitors are an important part in the majority of power electronic converters which contribute to cost, size and failure rate on a considerable scale. From capacitor users' viewpoint, this paper presents a review on the improvement of reliability of dc link in power electronic converters...... from two aspects: 1) reliability-oriented dc-link design solutions; 2) conditioning monitoring of dc-link capacitors during operation. Failure mechanisms, failure modes and lifetime models of capacitors suitable for the applications are also discussed as a basis to understand the physics......-of-failure. This review serves to provide a clear picture of the state-of-the-art research in this area and to identify the corresponding challenges and future research directions for capacitors and their dc-link applications....

  18. New Models for Forecasting Enrollments: Fuzzy Time Series and Neural Network Approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Qiang; Chissom, Brad S.

    Since university enrollment forecasting is very important, many different methods and models have been proposed by researchers. Two new methods for enrollment forecasting are introduced: (1) the fuzzy time series model; and (2) the artificial neural networks model. Fuzzy time series has been proposed to deal with forecasting problems within a…

  19. A Sandwich-Type Standard Error Estimator of SEM Models with Multivariate Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guangjian; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ong, Anthony D.

    2011-01-01

    Structural equation models are increasingly used as a modeling tool for multivariate time series data in the social and behavioral sciences. Standard error estimators of SEM models, originally developed for independent data, require modifications to accommodate the fact that time series data are inherently dependent. In this article, we extend a…

  20. Optimal capacitor placement and sizing using combined fuzzy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Then the sizing of the capacitors is modeled as an optimization problem and the objective function (loss minimization) is solved using Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (HPSO) technique. A case study with an IEEE 34 bus distribution feeder is presented to illustrate the applicability of the algorithm. A comparison is made ...

  1. Ultrasonic series resonant converter with integrated L-C-T

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Smit, MC

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available primary plate separation, w G bifilar primary 2EOE,NpW(h + To - T;) d C= where d plate width. Fig. 8. SPICE model of discrete component converter ~ 21 B. Spice Simulation The objective of the simulation is to show that the integrated structure... reacts in the same way as a discrete series inductor capacitor and transformer would do, and in turn agrees with the experimental results. Fig. 8 shows the SPICE circuit model of the discrete component series resonant converter. Inductance L...

  2. Dispersive dielectric and conductive effects in 2D resistor-capacitor networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamou, R F; Macdonald, J R; Tuncer, E

    2009-01-14

    How to predict and better understand the effective properties of disordered material mixtures has been a long-standing problem in different research fields, especially in condensed matter physics. In order to address this subject and achieve a better understanding of the frequency-dependent properties of these systems, a large 2D L × L square structure of resistors and capacitors was used to calculate the immittance response of a network formed by random filling of binary conductor/insulator phases with 1000 Ω resistors and 10 nF capacitors. The effects of percolating clusters on the immittance response were studied statistically through the generation of 10 000 different random network samples at the percolation threshold. The scattering of the imaginary part of the immittance near the dc limit shows a clear separation between the responses of percolating and non-percolating samples, with the gap between their distributions dependent on both network size and applied frequency. These results could be used to monitor connectivity in composite materials. The effects of the content and structure of the percolating path on the nature of the observed dispersion were investigated, with special attention paid to the geometrical fractal concept of the backbone and its influence on the behavior of relaxation-time distributions. For three different resistor-capacitor proportions, the appropriateness of many fitting models was investigated for modeling and analyzing individual resistor-capacitor network dispersed frequency responses using complex-nonlinear-least-squares fitting. Several remarkable new features were identified, including a useful duality relationship and the need for composite fitting models rather than either a simple power law or a single Davidson-Cole one. Good fits of data for fully percolating random networks required two dispersive fitting models in parallel or series, with a cutoff at short times of the distribution of relaxation times of one of

  3. Time series modeling and forecasting using memetic algorithms for regime-switching models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergmeir, Christoph; Triguero, Isaac; Molina, Daniel; Aznarte, José Luis; Benitez, José Manuel

    2012-11-01

    In this brief, we present a novel model fitting procedure for the neuro-coefficient smooth transition autoregressive model (NCSTAR), as presented by Medeiros and Veiga. The model is endowed with a statistically founded iterative building procedure and can be interpreted in terms of fuzzy rule-based systems. The interpretability of the generated models and a mathematically sound building procedure are two very important properties of forecasting models. The model fitting procedure employed by the original NCSTAR is a combination of initial parameter estimation by a grid search procedure with a traditional local search algorithm. We propose a different fitting procedure, using a memetic algorithm, in order to obtain more accurate models. An empirical evaluation of the method is performed, applying it to various real-world time series originating from three forecasting competitions. The results indicate that we can significantly enhance the accuracy of the models, making them competitive to models commonly used in the field.

  4. Using Disks as Models for Proofs of Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somchaipeng, Tongta; Kruatong, Tussatrin; Panijpan, Bhinyo

    2012-01-01

    Exploring and deriving proofs of closed-form expressions for series can be fun for students. However, for some students, a physical representation of such problems is more meaningful. Various approaches have been designed to help students visualize squares of sums and sums of squares; these approaches may be arithmetic-algebraic or combinatorial…

  5. multivariate time series modeling of selected childhood diseases

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-06-17

    Jun 17, 2016 ... KEYWORDS: Multivariate Approach, Pre-whitening, Vector Time Series, .... Alternatively, the process may be written in mean adjusted form as .... The AIC criterion asymptotically over estimates the order with positive probability, whereas the BIC and HQC criteria ... has the same asymptotic distribution as Ǫ.

  6. A prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion for chaotic time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhongda, Tian; Shujiang, Li; Yanhong, Wang; Yi, Sha

    2017-01-01

    In order to improve the prediction accuracy of chaotic time series, a prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion is proposed. The chaotic time series is decomposed and reconstructed by wavelet transform, and approximate components and detail components are obtained. According to different characteristics of each component, least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is used as predictive model for approximation components. At the same time, an improved free search algorithm is utilized for predictive model parameters optimization. Auto regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) is used as predictive model for detail components. The multiple prediction model predictive values are fusion by Gauss–Markov algorithm, the error variance of predicted results after fusion is less than the single model, the prediction accuracy is improved. The simulation results are compared through two typical chaotic time series include Lorenz time series and Mackey–Glass time series. The simulation results show that the prediction method in this paper has a better prediction.

  7. Evolution of Black-Box Models Based on Volterra Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel D. Silveira

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a historical review of the many behavioral models actually used to model radio frequency power amplifiers and a new classification of these behavioral models. It also discusses the evolution of these models, from a single polynomial to multirate Volterra models, presenting equations and estimation methods. New trends in RF power amplifier behavioral modeling are suggested.

  8. Capacitor discharges, magnetohydrodynamics, X-rays, ultrasonics

    CERN Document Server

    Früngel, Frank B A

    1965-01-01

    High Speed Pulse Technology, Volume 1: Capacitor Discharges - Magnetohydrodynamics - X-Rays - Ultrasonics deals with the theoretical and engineering problems that arise in the capacitor discharge technique.This book discusses the characteristics of dielectric material, symmetrical switch tubes with mercury filling, and compensation conductor forms. The transformed discharge for highest current peaks, ignition transformer for internal combustion engines, and X-ray irradiation of subjects in mechanical motion are also elaborated. This text likewise covers the transformed capacitor discharge in w

  9. Predicting long-term catchment nutrient export: the use of nonlinear time series models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valent, Peter; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Szolgay, Jan; Komornikova, Magda

    2010-05-01

    After the Second World War the nitrate concentrations in European water bodies changed significantly as the result of increased nitrogen fertilizer use and changes in land use. However, in the last decades, as a consequence of the implementation of nitrate-reducing measures in Europe, the nitrate concentrations in water bodies slowly decrease. This causes that the mean and variance of the observed time series also changes with time (nonstationarity and heteroscedascity). In order to detect changes and properly describe the behaviour of such time series by time series analysis, linear models (such as autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA) and autoregressive moving average models (ARMA)), are no more suitable. Time series with sudden changes in statistical characteristics can cause various problems in the calibration of traditional water quality models and thus give biased predictions. Proper statistical analysis of these non-stationary and heteroscedastic time series with the aim of detecting and subsequently explaining the variations in their statistical characteristics requires the use of nonlinear time series models. This information can be then used to improve the model building and calibration of conceptual water quality model or to select right calibration periods in order to produce reliable predictions. The objective of this contribution is to analyze two long time series of nitrate concentrations of the rivers Ouse and Stour with advanced nonlinear statistical modelling techniques and compare their performance with traditional linear models of the ARMA class in order to identify changes in the time series characteristics. The time series were analysed with nonlinear models with multiple regimes represented by self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) and Markov-switching models (MSW). The analysis showed that, based on the value of residual sum of squares (RSS) in both datasets, SETAR and MSW models described the time-series better than models of the

  10. Evaluation of nonlinearity and validity of nonlinear modeling for complex time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Tomoya; Ikeguchi, Tohru; Suzuki, Masuo

    2007-10-01

    Even if an original time series exhibits nonlinearity, it is not always effective to approximate the time series by a nonlinear model because such nonlinear models have high complexity from the viewpoint of information criteria. Therefore, we propose two measures to evaluate both the nonlinearity of a time series and validity of nonlinear modeling applied to it by nonlinear predictability and information criteria. Through numerical simulations, we confirm that the proposed measures effectively detect the nonlinearity of an observed time series and evaluate the validity of the nonlinear model. The measures are also robust against observational noises. We also analyze some real time series: the difference of the number of chickenpox and measles patients, the number of sunspots, five Japanese vowels, and the chaotic laser. We can confirm that the nonlinear model is effective for the Japanese vowel /a/, the difference of the number of measles patients, and the chaotic laser.

  11. Design of Neutral-Point Voltage Controller of a Three-level NPC Inverter with Small DC-Link Capacitors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maheshwari, Ram Krishan; Munk-Nielsen, Stig; Busquets-Monge, S.

    2013-01-01

    A Neutral-Point-Clamped (NPC) three-level inverter with small dc-link capacitors is presented in this paper. The inverter requires zero average neutral-point current for stable neutral-point voltage. The small dc-link capacitors may not maintain capacitor voltage balance, even with zero neutral......-point voltage control on the basis of the continuous model. The design method for optimum performance is discussed. The implementation of the proposed modulation strategy and the controller is very simple. The controller is implemented in a 7.5 kW induction machine based drive with only 14 ìF dc-link capacitors...

  12. New Temperature-Insensitive Electronically-Tunable Grounded Capacitor Simulator

    OpenAIRE

    Abuelma'atti, Muhammad Taher; Khan, Muhammad Haroon

    1996-01-01

    A new circuit for simulating a grounded capacitor is presented. The circuit uses one operationalamplifier (OA), three operational-transconductance amplifiers (OTAs), and one capacitor. The realized capacitor is temperature-insensitive and electronically tunable. Experimental results are included.

  13. Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

    1995-05-01

    The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

  14. Fitting ARMA Time Series by Structural Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Buuren, Stef

    1997-01-01

    This paper outlines how the stationary ARMA (p,q) model (G. Box and G. Jenkins, 1976) can be specified as a structural equation model. Maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters in the ARMA model can be obtained by software for fitting structural equation models. The method is applied to three problem types. (SLD)

  15. Extracting the relevant delays in time series modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goutte, Cyril

    1997-01-01

    selection, and more precisely stepwise forward selection. The method is compared to other forward selection schemes, as well as to a nonparametric tests aimed at estimating the embedding dimension of time series. The final application extends these results to the efficient estimation of FIR filters on some......In this contribution, we suggest a convenient way to use generalisation error to extract the relevant delays from a time-varying process, i.e. the delays that lead to the best prediction performance. We design a generalisation-based algorithm that takes its inspiration from traditional variable...

  16. Time Series Modelling of Syphilis Incidence in China from 2005 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingyu; Zhang, Tao; Pei, Jiao; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiaosong; Medrano-Gracia, Pau

    2016-01-01

    The infection rate of syphilis in China has increased dramatically in recent decades, becoming a serious public health concern. Early prediction of syphilis is therefore of great importance for heath planning and management. In this paper, we analyzed surveillance time series data for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis in mainland China from 2005 to 2012. Seasonality and long-term trend were explored with decomposition methods. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to fit a univariate time series model of syphilis incidence. A separate multi-variable time series for each syphilis type was also tested using an autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX). The syphilis incidence rates have increased three-fold from 2005 to 2012. All syphilis time series showed strong seasonality and increasing long-term trend. Both ARIMA and ARIMAX models fitted and estimated syphilis incidence well. All univariate time series showed highest goodness-of-fit results with the ARIMA(0,0,1)×(0,1,1) model. Time series analysis was an effective tool for modelling the historical and future incidence of syphilis in China. The ARIMAX model showed superior performance than the ARIMA model for the modelling of syphilis incidence. Time series correlations existed between the models for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis.

  17. Time Series Modelling of Syphilis Incidence in China from 2005 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingyu; Zhang, Tao; Pei, Jiao; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiaosong; Medrano-Gracia, Pau

    2016-01-01

    Background The infection rate of syphilis in China has increased dramatically in recent decades, becoming a serious public health concern. Early prediction of syphilis is therefore of great importance for heath planning and management. Methods In this paper, we analyzed surveillance time series data for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis in mainland China from 2005 to 2012. Seasonality and long-term trend were explored with decomposition methods. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to fit a univariate time series model of syphilis incidence. A separate multi-variable time series for each syphilis type was also tested using an autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX). Results The syphilis incidence rates have increased three-fold from 2005 to 2012. All syphilis time series showed strong seasonality and increasing long-term trend. Both ARIMA and ARIMAX models fitted and estimated syphilis incidence well. All univariate time series showed highest goodness-of-fit results with the ARIMA(0,0,1)×(0,1,1) model. Conclusion Time series analysis was an effective tool for modelling the historical and future incidence of syphilis in China. The ARIMAX model showed superior performance than the ARIMA model for the modelling of syphilis incidence. Time series correlations existed between the models for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis. PMID:26901682

  18. Modeling time-series data from microbial communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridenhour, Benjamin J; Brooker, Sarah L; Williams, Janet E; Van Leuven, James T; Miller, Aaron W; Dearing, M Denise; Remien, Christopher H

    2017-11-01

    As sequencing technologies have advanced, the amount of information regarding the composition of bacterial communities from various environments (for example, skin or soil) has grown exponentially. To date, most work has focused on cataloging taxa present in samples and determining whether the distribution of taxa shifts with exogenous covariates. However, important questions regarding how taxa interact with each other and their environment remain open thus preventing in-depth ecological understanding of microbiomes. Time-series data from 16S rDNA amplicon sequencing are becoming more common within microbial ecology, but methods to infer ecological interactions from these longitudinal data are limited. We address this gap by presenting a method of analysis using Poisson regression fit with an elastic-net penalty that (1) takes advantage of the fact that the data are time series; (2) constrains estimates to allow for the possibility of many more interactions than data; and (3) is scalable enough to handle data consisting of thousands of taxa. We test the method on gut microbiome data from white-throated woodrats (Neotoma albigula) that were fed varying amounts of the plant secondary compound oxalate over a period of 22 days to estimate interactions between OTUs and their environment.

  19. Parametric, nonparametric and parametric modelling of a chaotic circuit time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmer, J.; Rust, H.; Horbelt, W.; Voss, H. U.

    2000-09-01

    The determination of a differential equation underlying a measured time series is a frequently arising task in nonlinear time series analysis. In the validation of a proposed model one often faces the dilemma that it is hard to decide whether possible discrepancies between the time series and model output are caused by an inappropriate model or by bad estimates of parameters in a correct type of model, or both. We propose a combination of parametric modelling based on Bock's multiple shooting algorithm and nonparametric modelling based on optimal transformations as a strategy to test proposed models and if rejected suggest and test new ones. We exemplify this strategy on an experimental time series from a chaotic circuit where we obtain an extremely accurate reconstruction of the observed attractor.

  20. Development of novel segmented-plate linearly tunable MEMS capacitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shavezipur, M; Khajepour, A; Hashemi, S M

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, novel MEMS capacitors with flexible moving electrodes and high linearity and tunability are presented. The moving plate is divided into small and rigid segments connected to one another by connecting beams at their end nodes. Under each node there is a rigid step which selectively limits the vertical displacement of the node. A lumped model is developed to analytically solve the governing equations of coupled structural-electrostatic physics with mechanical contact. Using the analytical solver, an optimization program finds the best set of step heights that provides the highest linearity. Analytical and finite element analyses of two capacitors with three-segmented- and six-segmented-plate confirm that the segmentation technique considerably improves the linearity while the tunability remains as high as that of a conventional parallel-plate capacitor. Moreover, since the new designs require customized fabrication processes, to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed technique for standard processes, a modified capacitor with flexible steps designed for PolyMUMPs is introduced. Dimensional optimization of the modified design results in a combination of high linearity and tunability. Constraining the displacement of the moving plate can be extended to more complex geometries to obtain smooth and highly linear responses

  1. Nanodomain Engineering in Ferroelectric Capacitors with Graphene Electrodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Haidong; Wang, Bo; Li, Tao; Lipatov, Alexey; Lee, Hyungwoo; Rajapitamahuni, Anil; Xu, Ruijuan; Hong, Xia; Farokhipoor, Saeedeh; Martin, Lane W; Eom, Chang-Beom; Chen, Long-Qing; Sinitskii, Alexander; Gruverman, Alexei

    2016-10-12

    Polarization switching in ferroelectric capacitors is typically realized by application of an electrical bias to the capacitor electrodes and occurs via a complex process of domain structure reorganization. As the domain evolution in real devices is governed by the distribution of the nucleation centers, obtaining a domain structure of a desired configuration by electrical pulsing is challenging, if not impossible. Recent discovery of polarization reversal via the flexoelectric effect has opened a possibility for deterministic control of polarization in ferroelectric capacitors. In this paper, we demonstrate mechanical writing of arbitrary-shaped nanoscale domains in thin-film ferroelectric capacitors with graphene electrodes facilitated by a strain gradient induced by a tip of an atomic force microscope (AFM). A phase-field modeling prediction of a strong effect of graphene thickness on the threshold load required to initiate mechanical switching has been confirmed experimentally. Deliberate voltage-free domain writing represents a viable approach for development of functional devices based on domain topology and electronic properties of the domains and domain walls.

  2. Assessment of lithium-ion capacitor for using in battery electric vehicle and hybrid electric vehicle applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omar, N.; Daowd, M.; Hegazy, O.; Al Sakka, M.; Coosemans, Th.; Van den Bossche, P.; Van Mierlo, J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper represents a novel lithium-ion capacitor model. The proposed model has significantly high accuracy (less 4%). The model is an extension of Zubieta model for EDLCs. The proposed model consists of three capacitors, representing the influence of temperature, current rate (ΔC 1 ) and SoC (ΔC 2 ) on the capacitance of LiCaps, respectively. Unlike to the electrical double-layer capacitors, the model contains two resistances, illustrating the charge and discharge processes. Then, a self-discharge resistance is added to demonstrate the long term effect on the LiCaps capabilities. This model is able to predict the lithium-ion behavior during constant charging and discharging as well as during short pulses duration. The parameters of the model have been derived based on the extended characterization tests that have been carried out. The investigated performance parameters are energy and power abilities, charge and discharge capabilities at different current rates. Furthermore, these parameters have been examined at different working temperatures (60 °C, 40 °C, 25 °C, 0 °C and −18 °C). The experimental results reveal that the type of lithium-ion capacitor used in this work has an energy density about 14 Wh/kg, which is two and half times higher than the used EDLC. These results also indicate similar properties as the electrical double-layer capacitors in the terms of internal resistance and state of charge determination. In contrast to EDLCs, the results show that lithium-ion capacitors suffer considerably at the low temperatures due to lower energy at high current rate. The same characteristics can be observed during discharge phase, due to the occurrence of the Peukert effect. Moreover, series of tests have been carried out at different state of charge values. Here we have found that the capacitance has a polynomial relationship against a linear equation for EDLC and it seems in function of applied current rates. From the point of view of the power

  3. Electric Double-Layer Capacitor Fabricated with Addition of Carbon Nanotube to Polarizable Electrode

    OpenAIRE

    Yoshiyuki Show

    2012-01-01

    Electrical double-layer capacitor (EDLC) was fabricated with addition of carbon nanotube (CNT) to polarization electrodes as a conducting material. The CNT addition reduced the series resistance of the EDLC by one-twentieth, while the capacitance was not increased by the CNT addition. The low series resistance leaded to the high electrical energy stored in the EDLC. In this paper, the dependence of the series resistance, the specific capacitance, the energy, and the energy efficiencies on the...

  4. A generalized exponential time series regression model for electricity prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haldrup, Niels; Knapik, Oskar; Proietti, Tomasso

    on the estimated model, the best linear predictor is constructed. Our modeling approach provides good fit within sample and outperforms competing benchmark predictors in terms of forecasting accuracy. We also find that building separate models for each hour of the day and averaging the forecasts is a better...

  5. Powering microbial electrolysis cells by capacitor circuits charged using microbial fuel cell

    KAUST Repository

    Hatzell, Marta C.

    2013-05-01

    A microbial electrolysis cell (MEC) was powered by a capacitor based energy storage circuit using energy from a microbial fuel cell (MFC) to increase MEC hydrogen production rates compared to that possible by the MFC alone. To prevent voltage reversal, MFCs charged the capacitors in a parallel configuration, and then the capacitors were discharged in series to boost the voltage that was used to power the MECs. The optimal capacitance for charging was found to be ∼0.01 F for each MFC. The use of the capacitor charging system increased energy recoveries from 9 to 13%, and hydrogen production rates increased from 0.31 to 0.72 m3 m-3-day-1, compared to coupled systems without capacitors. The circuit efficiency (the ratio of the energy that was discharged to the MEC to the energy provided to the capacitor from the MFCs) was ∼90%. These results provide an improved method for linking MFCs to MECs for renewable hydrogen gas production. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Modeling sports highlights using a time-series clustering framework and model interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, Regunathan; Otsuka, Isao; Xiong, Ziyou; Divakaran, Ajay

    2005-01-01

    In our past work on sports highlights extraction, we have shown the utility of detecting audience reaction using an audio classification framework. The audio classes in the framework were chosen based on intuition. In this paper, we present a systematic way of identifying the key audio classes for sports highlights extraction using a time series clustering framework. We treat the low-level audio features as a time series and model the highlight segments as "unusual" events in a background of an "usual" process. The set of audio classes to characterize the sports domain is then identified by analyzing the consistent patterns in each of the clusters output from the time series clustering framework. The distribution of features from the training data so obtained for each of the key audio classes, is parameterized by a Minimum Description Length Gaussian Mixture Model (MDL-GMM). We also interpret the meaning of each of the mixture components of the MDL-GMM for the key audio class (the "highlight" class) that is correlated with highlight moments. Our results show that the "highlight" class is a mixture of audience cheering and commentator's excited speech. Furthermore, we show that the precision-recall performance for highlights extraction based on this "highlight" class is better than that of our previous approach which uses only audience cheering as the key highlight class.

  7. Composite magnetorheological elastomers as dielectrics for plane capacitors: Effects of magnetic field intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Balasoiu

    Full Text Available The fabrication of composite magnetorheological elastomers (MRECs based on silicone rubber, carbonyl iron microparticles (10% vol. and polyurethane elastomer doped with 0%, 10% and 20% volume concentration TiO2 microparticles is presented. The obtained MRECs have the shape of thin foils and are used as dielectric materials for manufacturing plane capacitors. Using the plane capacitor method and expression of capacitance as a function of magnetic field intensity, combined with linear elasticity theory, the static magnetoelastic model of the composite is obtained and analyzed. Keywords: Magnetorheological elastomer, TiO2 microparticles, Silicone rubber, Carbonyl iron, Plane capacitor, Magnetoelasticity

  8. Simple Ways to Make Real Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Rhett

    2014-01-01

    Many of us have grabbed two pieces of aluminum foil and a paper towel, quickly sandwiched them together, and exclaimed in lecture, "Look! It's easy to make a capacitor!" Then we move on from there, calculating things such as capacitances with various dielectrics or plate sizes, the capacitance of capacitor networks, RC circuits,…

  9. Dielectric material options for integrated capacitors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruhl, G.; Lehnert, W.; Lukosius, M.; Wenger, C.; Baristiran Kaynak, C.; Blomberg, T.; Haukka, S.; Baumann, P.K.; Besling, W.F.A.; Roest, A.L.; Riou, B.; Lhostis, S.; Halimaou, A.; Roozeboom, F.; Langereis, E.; Kessels, W.M.M.; Zauner, A.; Rushworth, S.A.

    2014-01-01

    Future MIM capacitor generations will require significantly increased specific capacitances by utilization of high-k dielectric materials. In order to achieve high capacitance per chip area, these dielectrics have to be deposited in three-dimensional capacitor structures by ALD or AVD (atomic vapor

  10. Cellulose Triacetate Dielectric Films For Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Shiao-Ping S.; Jow, T. Richard

    1994-01-01

    Cellulose triacetate investigated for use as dielectric material in high-energy-density capacitors for pulsed-electrical-power systems. Films of cellulose triacetate metalized on one or both sides for use as substrates for electrodes and/or as dielectrics between electrodes in capacitors. Used without metalization as simple dielectric films. Advantages include high breakdown strength and self-healing capability.

  11. Microprocessor Controlled Capacitor Bank Switching System for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this work, analysis and development of a microprocessor controlled capacitor bank switching system for deployment in a smart distribution network was carried out. This system was implemented by the use of discreet components such as resistors, capacitors, transistor, diode, automatic voltage regulator, with the ...

  12. Comparison of converter topologies for charging capacitors used in pulsed load applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelms, R. M.; Schatz, J. E.; Pollard, Barry

    1991-01-01

    The authors present a qualitative comparison of different power converter topologies which may be utilized for charging capacitors in pulsed power applications requiring voltages greater than 1 kV. The operation of the converters in capacitor charging applications is described, and relevant advantages are presented. All of the converters except one may be classified in the high-frequency switching category. One of the benefits from high-frequency operation is a reduction in size and weight. The other converter discussed is a member of the command resonant changing category. The authors first describe a boost circuit which functions as a command resonant charging circuit and utilizes a single pulse of current to charge the capacitor. The discussion of high-frequency converters begins with the flyback and Ward converters. Then, the series, parallel, and series/parallel resonant converters are examined.

  13. Capacitor Bank 'CHANDI' for Plasma Target Production for Liner Plasma Interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, R.; Sharma, S.K.; Debnath, K.; Shyam, A.

    2006-01-01

    A capacitor bank is fabricated to drive (JXB) Plasma gun to generate hot plasma (target) for liner plasma investigation. The bank will also be used for driving other pintch experiments. The bank consists of 8 capacitors connected in parallel, each having capacitance of 178 μF giving a total of 1424uF. The bank is charged at 15 kV using a 28 kV power supply charging the capacitors in 65 seconds utilizing full wave charging technique. The total energy of the bank is 160kJ at 15kV. A modeling of power supply was done so that all the components involved are utilized to their operating limit safely. Moreover to give fault protection to the capacitor bank we have implemented the neutral control technique in the power supply. The capacitor bank is discharged to the inductive load through an ignitron switch of very high coulomb rating and capable of withstanding high voltages at its electrodes. The cables used for connecting capacitor bank with ignitron switch are used in parallel to give them collective capability of bearing capacitor discharge currents. These cables are capable of holding high DC voltages (40kV), which appear at the time of charging of the bank. The bank is tested and is operational

  14. Reliability of high-voltage pulse capacitors operating in large energy storages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuchinskij, G.S.; Fedorova, V.S.; Shilin, O.V.

    1982-01-01

    To improve the reliability of pulse capacitors operating in capacitive energy storages, processes, resulting in break-down of capacitor insulation were investigated. A statistic model of failures was constructed and reliability of real capacitors, functioning at operating electric intensity Usub(oper) equal 70 kV/mm and at elevated intensity 90 kV/mm was calculated. Results of testing the IK50-ZU4 capacitor are given. The form of the capacitor service life distribution function was specified. To provide and confirm the assigned capacitor reliability, it is necessary to speed up tests at a higher voltage (1.3-1.5) Usub(oper). To improve the capacitor reliability, it is advisable to conduct acceptance tests, which include hold at increased constant voltage (1.3-1.5) Usub(oper) during 1-3 min and the effect of pulses of increased voltage (1.2-1.3) Usub(oper) with the pulse shape corresponding to operating conditions

  15. Experimental and modeling study of the capacitance-voltage characteristics of metal-insulator-semiconductor capacitor based on pentacene/parylene

    KAUST Repository

    Wondmagegn, Wudyalew T.

    2011-04-01

    The capacitance-voltage (C-V) characteristics of metal-insulator- semiconductor (MIS) capacitors consisting of pentacene as an organic semiconductor and parylene as the dielectric have been investigated by experimental, analytical, and numerical analysis. The device simulation was performed using two-dimensional drift-diffusion methods taking into account the Poole-Frenkel field-dependent mobility. Pentacene bulk defect states and fixed charge density at the semiconductor/insulator interface were incorporated into the simulation. The analysis examined pentacene/parylene interface characteristics for various parylene thicknesses. For each thickness, the corresponding flat band voltage extracted from the C-V plot of the MIS structure was more negative than - 2.4 V. From the flat band voltage the existence of a significant mismatch between the work functions of the gate electrode and pentacene active material has been identified. Experimental and simulation results suggest the existence of interface charge density on the order of 3 × 1011 q/cm2 at the insulator/semiconductor interface. The frequency dispersion characteristics of the device are also presented and discussed. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  16. Nanostructured Electrode Materials for Electrochemical Capacitor Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Choi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The advent of novel organic and inorganic nanomaterials in recent years, particularly nanostructured carbons, conducting polymers, and metal oxides, has enabled the fabrication of various energy devices with enhanced performance. In this paper, we review in detail different nanomaterials used in the fabrication of electrochemical capacitor electrodes and also give a brief overview of electric double-layer capacitors, pseudocapacitors, and hybrid capacitors. From a materials point of view, the latest trends in electrochemical capacitor research are also discussed through extensive analysis of the literature and by highlighting notable research examples (published mostly since 2013. Finally, a perspective on next-generation capacitor technology is also given, including the challenges that lie ahead.

  17. Electric field mapping inside metallized film capacitors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Dennis Achton; Popok, Vladimir; Pedersen, Kjeld

    2015-01-01

    (s) they suffered from accelerated testing. We have prepared film capacitors for analysis by micro-sectioning and verified the quality of the preparation procedure using optical and atomic force microscopy. The potential distribution in the layer structure (alternating 7 µm thick dielectric and 50-100 nm thick...... and durability and serves as verification that failure- and degradation mechanisms remain the same at different stress levels during accelerated testing. In this work we have used Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) to analyze metallized film capacitors with the purpose of determining the degradation mechanism...... metal) of a new capacitor was used as reference. KPFM measurements on the degraded capacitors showed a change in contact potential difference from -0.61V on the reference capacitor to 3.2V on the degraded ones, indicating that corrosion of the metallization had happened. Studies also showed that some...

  18. Time Series ARIMA Models of Undergraduate Grade Point Average.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Bruce G.

    The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models, often referred to as Box-Jenkins models, are regression methods for analyzing sequential dependent observations with large amounts of data. The Box-Jenkins approach, a three-stage procedure consisting of identification, estimation and diagnosis, was used to select the most appropriate…

  19. SEM based CARMA time series modeling for arbitrary N

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oud, J.H.L.; Völkle, M.C.; Driver, C.C.

    2018-01-01

    This article explains in detail the state space specification and estimation of first and higher-order autoregressive moving-average models in continuous time (CARMA) in an extended structural equation modeling (SEM) context for N = 1 as well as N > 1. To illustrate the approach, simulations will be

  20. Modeling Large Time Series for Efficient Approximate Query Processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perera, Kasun S; Hahmann, Martin; Lehner, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    query statistics derived from experiments and when running the system. Our approach can also reduce communication load by exchanging models instead of data. To allow seamless integration of model-based querying into traditional data warehouses, we introduce a SQL compatible query terminology. Our...

  1. Modelling Changes in the Unconditional Variance of Long Stock Return Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we develop a testing and modelling procedure for describing the long-term volatility movements over very long return series. For the purpose, we assume that volatility is multiplicatively decomposed into a conditional and an unconditional component as in Amado and Teräsvirta (2011...... show that the long-memory property in volatility may be explained by ignored changes in the unconditional variance of the long series. Finally, based on a formal statistical test we find evidence of the superiority of volatility forecast accuracy of the new model over the GJR-GARCH model at all...... horizons for a subset of the long return series....

  2. Modelling changes in the unconditional variance of long stock return series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we develop a testing and modelling procedure for describing the long-term volatility movements over very long daily return series. For this purpose we assume that volatility is multiplicatively decomposed into a conditional and an unconditional component as in Amado and Teräsvirta...... that the apparent long memory property in volatility may be interpreted as changes in the unconditional variance of the long series. Finally, based on a formal statistical test we find evidence of the superiority of volatility forecasting accuracy of the new model over the GJR-GARCH model at all horizons for eight...... subsets of the long return series....

  3. Mixed Portmanteau Test for Diagnostic Checking of Time Series Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sohail Chand

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Model criticism is an important stage of model building and thus goodness of fit tests provides a set of tools for diagnostic checking of the fitted model. Several tests are suggested in literature for diagnostic checking. These tests use autocorrelation or partial autocorrelation in the residuals to criticize the adequacy of fitted model. The main idea underlying these portmanteau tests is to identify if there is any dependence structure which is yet unexplained by the fitted model. In this paper, we suggest mixed portmanteau tests based on autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions of the residuals. We derived the asymptotic distribution of the mixture test and studied its size and power using Monte Carlo simulations.

  4. A Feature Fusion Based Forecasting Model for Financial Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhiqiang; Wang, Huaiqing; Liu, Quan; Yang, Jie

    2014-01-01

    Predicting the stock market has become an increasingly interesting research area for both researchers and investors, and many prediction models have been proposed. In these models, feature selection techniques are used to pre-process the raw data and remove noise. In this paper, a prediction model is constructed to forecast stock market behavior with the aid of independent component analysis, canonical correlation analysis, and a support vector machine. First, two types of features are extracted from the historical closing prices and 39 technical variables obtained by independent component analysis. Second, a canonical correlation analysis method is utilized to combine the two types of features and extract intrinsic features to improve the performance of the prediction model. Finally, a support vector machine is applied to forecast the next day's closing price. The proposed model is applied to the Shanghai stock market index and the Dow Jones index, and experimental results show that the proposed model performs better in the area of prediction than other two similar models. PMID:24971455

  5. SEM Based CARMA Time Series Modeling for Arbitrary N.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Johan H L; Voelkle, Manuel C; Driver, Charles C

    2018-01-01

    This article explains in detail the state space specification and estimation of first and higher-order autoregressive moving-average models in continuous time (CARMA) in an extended structural equation modeling (SEM) context for N = 1 as well as N > 1. To illustrate the approach, simulations will be presented in which a single panel model (T = 41 time points) is estimated for a sample of N = 1,000 individuals as well as for samples of N = 100 and N = 50 individuals, followed by estimating 100 separate models for each of the one-hundred N = 1 cases in the N = 100 sample. Furthermore, we will demonstrate how to test the difference between the full panel model and each N = 1 model by means of a subject-group-reproducibility test. Finally, the proposed analyses will be applied in an empirical example, in which the relationships between mood at work and mood at home are studied in a sample of N = 55 women. All analyses are carried out by ctsem, an R-package for continuous time modeling, interfacing to OpenMx.

  6. Time series modelling of the Kobe-Osaka earthquake recordings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Singh

    2002-01-01

    generated by an earthquake. With a view of comparing these two types of waveforms, Singh (1992 developed a technique for identifying a model in time domain. Fortunately this technique has been found useful in modelling the recordings of the killer earthquake occurred in the Kobe-Osaka region of Japan at 5.46 am on 17 January, 1995. The aim of the present study is to show how well the method for identifying a model (developed by Singh (1992 can be used for describing the vibrations of the above mentioned earthquake recorded at Charters Towers in Queensland, Australia.

  7. Reliability assessment for metallized film pulse capacitors with accelerated degradation test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Jianyin; Liu Fang; Xi Wenjun; He Shaobo; Wei Xiaofeng

    2011-01-01

    The high energy density self-healing metallized film pulse capacitor has been applied to all kinds of laser facilities for their power conditioning systems, whose reliability is straightforward affected by the reliability level of capacitors. Reliability analysis of highly reliable devices, such as metallized film capacitors, is a challenge due to cost and time restriction. Accelerated degradation test provides a way to predict its life cost and time effectively. A model and analyses for accelerated degradation data of metallized film capacitors are described. Also described is a method for estimating the distribution of failure time. The estimation values of the unknown parameters in this model are 9.066 9 x 10 -8 and 0.022 1. Both the failure probability density function (PDF) and the cumulative distribution function (CDF) can be presented by this degradation failure model. Based on these estimation values and the PDF/CDF, the reliability model of the metallized film capacitors is obtained. According to the reliability model, the probability of the capacitors surviving to 20 000 shot is 0.972 4. (authors)

  8. Applying Time Series Analysis Model to Temperature Data in Greenhouses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelhafid Hasni

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the research is to find an appropriate Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA Model for fitting the inside air temperature (Tin of a naturally ventilated greenhouse under Mediterranean conditions by considering the minimum of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC. The results of fitting were as follows: the best SARIMA Model for fitting air temperature of greenhouse is SARIMA (1,0,0 (1,0,224.

  9. Modelling fourier regression for time series data- a case study: modelling inflation in foods sector in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prahutama, Alan; Suparti; Wahyu Utami, Tiani

    2018-03-01

    Regression analysis is an analysis to model the relationship between response variables and predictor variables. The parametric approach to the regression model is very strict with the assumption, but nonparametric regression model isn’t need assumption of model. Time series data is the data of a variable that is observed based on a certain time, so if the time series data wanted to be modeled by regression, then we should determined the response and predictor variables first. Determination of the response variable in time series is variable in t-th (yt), while the predictor variable is a significant lag. In nonparametric regression modeling, one developing approach is to use the Fourier series approach. One of the advantages of nonparametric regression approach using Fourier series is able to overcome data having trigonometric distribution. In modeling using Fourier series needs parameter of K. To determine the number of K can be used Generalized Cross Validation method. In inflation modeling for the transportation sector, communication and financial services using Fourier series yields an optimal K of 120 parameters with R-square 99%. Whereas if it was modeled by multiple linear regression yield R-square 90%.

  10. A Personalized Predictive Framework for Multivariate Clinical Time Series via Adaptive Model Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

    2017-11-01

    Building of an accurate predictive model of clinical time series for a patient is critical for understanding of the patient condition, its dynamics, and optimal patient management. Unfortunately, this process is not straightforward. First, patient-specific variations are typically large and population-based models derived or learned from many different patients are often unable to support accurate predictions for each individual patient. Moreover, time series observed for one patient at any point in time may be too short and insufficient to learn a high-quality patient-specific model just from the patient's own data. To address these problems we propose, develop and experiment with a new adaptive forecasting framework for building multivariate clinical time series models for a patient and for supporting patient-specific predictions. The framework relies on the adaptive model switching approach that at any point in time selects the most promising time series model out of the pool of many possible models, and consequently, combines advantages of the population, patient-specific and short-term individualized predictive models. We demonstrate that the adaptive model switching framework is very promising approach to support personalized time series prediction, and that it is able to outperform predictions based on pure population and patient-specific models, as well as, other patient-specific model adaptation strategies.

  11. A neuro-fuzzy computing technique for modeling hydrological time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, P. C.; Sudheer, K. P.; Rangan, D. M.; Ramasastri, K. S.

    2004-05-01

    Intelligent computing tools such as artificial neural network (ANN) and fuzzy logic approaches are proven to be efficient when applied individually to a variety of problems. Recently there has been a growing interest in combining both these approaches, and as a result, neuro-fuzzy computing techniques have evolved. This approach has been tested and evaluated in the field of signal processing and related areas, but researchers have only begun evaluating the potential of this neuro-fuzzy hybrid approach in hydrologic modeling studies. This paper presents the application of an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to hydrologic time series modeling, and is illustrated by an application to model the river flow of Baitarani River in Orissa state, India. An introduction to the ANFIS modeling approach is also presented. The advantage of the method is that it does not require the model structure to be known a priori, in contrast to most of the time series modeling techniques. The results showed that the ANFIS forecasted flow series preserves the statistical properties of the original flow series. The model showed good performance in terms of various statistical indices. The results are highly promising, and a comparative analysis suggests that the proposed modeling approach outperforms ANNs and other traditional time series models in terms of computational speed, forecast errors, efficiency, peak flow estimation etc. It was observed that the ANFIS model preserves the potential of the ANN approach fully, and eases the model building process.

  12. Modeling activity patterns of wildlife using time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jindong; Hull, Vanessa; Ouyang, Zhiyun; He, Liang; Connor, Thomas; Yang, Hongbo; Huang, Jinyan; Zhou, Shiqiang; Zhang, Zejun; Zhou, Caiquan; Zhang, Hemin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-04-01

    The study of wildlife activity patterns is an effective approach to understanding fundamental ecological and evolutionary processes. However, traditional statistical approaches used to conduct quantitative analysis have thus far had limited success in revealing underlying mechanisms driving activity patterns. Here, we combine wavelet analysis, a type of frequency-based time-series analysis, with high-resolution activity data from accelerometers embedded in GPS collars to explore the effects of internal states (e.g., pregnancy) and external factors (e.g., seasonal dynamics of resources and weather) on activity patterns of the endangered giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Giant pandas exhibited higher frequency cycles during the winter when resources (e.g., water and forage) were relatively poor, as well as during spring, which includes the giant panda's mating season. During the summer and autumn when resources were abundant, pandas exhibited a regular activity pattern with activity peaks every 24 hr. A pregnant individual showed distinct differences in her activity pattern from other giant pandas for several months following parturition. These results indicate that animals adjust activity cycles to adapt to seasonal variation of the resources and unique physiological periods. Wavelet coherency analysis also verified the synchronization of giant panda activity level with air temperature and solar radiation at the 24-hr band. Our study also shows that wavelet analysis is an effective tool for analyzing high-resolution activity pattern data and its relationship to internal and external states, an approach that has the potential to inform wildlife conservation and management across species.

  13. Model of a synthetic wind speed time series generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Negra, N.B.; Holmstrøm, O.; Bak-Jensen, B.

    2008-01-01

    is described and some statistical issues (seasonal characteristics, autocorrelation functions, average values and distribution functions) are used for verification. The output of the model has been designed as input for sequential Monte Carlo simulation; however, it is expected that it can be used for other...... of the main elements to consider for this purpose is the model of the wind speed that is usually required as input. Wind speed measurements may represent a solution for this problem, but, for techniques such as sequential Monte Carlo simulation, they have to be long enough in order to describe a wide range...

  14. TIME SERIES MODELS OF THREE SETS OF RXTE OBSERVATIONS OF 4U 1543–47

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koen, C.

    2013-01-01

    The X-ray nova 4U 1543–47 was in a different physical state (low/hard, high/soft, and very high) during the acquisition of each of the three time series analyzed in this paper. Standard time series models of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) family are fitted to these series. The low/hard data can be adequately modeled by a simple low-order model with fixed coefficients, once the slowly varying mean count rate has been accounted for. The high/soft series requires a higher order model, or an ARMA model with variable coefficients. The very high state is characterized by a succession of 'dips', with roughly equal depths. These seem to appear independently of one another. The underlying stochastic series can again be modeled by an ARMA form, or roughly as the sum of an ARMA series and white noise. The structuring of each model in terms of short-lived aperiodic and 'quasi-periodic' components is discussed.

  15. Multiband Prediction Model for Financial Time Series with Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Rabiul Islam

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a subband approach to financial time series prediction. Multivariate empirical mode decomposition (MEMD is employed here for multiband representation of multichannel financial time series together. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA model is used in prediction of individual subband of any time series data. Then all the predicted subband signals are summed up to obtain the overall prediction. The ARMA model works better for stationary signal. With multiband representation, each subband becomes a band-limited (narrow band signal and hence better prediction is achieved. The performance of the proposed MEMD-ARMA model is compared with classical EMD, discrete wavelet transform (DWT, and with full band ARMA model in terms of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR and mean square error (MSE between the original and predicted time series. The simulation results show that the MEMD-ARMA-based method performs better than the other methods.

  16. Mathematical model of thyristor inverter including a series-parallel resonant circuit

    OpenAIRE

    Luft, M.; Szychta, E.

    2008-01-01

    The article presents a mathematical model of thyristor inverter including a series-parallel resonant circuit with the aid of state variable method. Maple procedures are used to compute current and voltage waveforms in the inverter.

  17. Mathematical Model of Thyristor Inverter Including a Series-parallel Resonant Circuit

    OpenAIRE

    Miroslaw Luft; Elzbieta Szychta

    2008-01-01

    The article presents a mathematical model of thyristor inverter including a series-parallel resonant circuit with theaid of state variable method. Maple procedures are used to compute current and voltage waveforms in the inverter.

  18. Mathematical Model of Thyristor Inverter Including a Series-parallel Resonant Circuit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslaw Luft

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a mathematical model of thyristor inverter including a series-parallel resonant circuit with theaid of state variable method. Maple procedures are used to compute current and voltage waveforms in the inverter.

  19. Linear models for multivariate, time series, and spatial data

    CERN Document Server

    Christensen, Ronald

    1991-01-01

    This is a companion volume to Plane Answers to Complex Questions: The Theory 0/ Linear Models. It consists of six additional chapters written in the same spirit as the last six chapters of the earlier book. Brief introductions are given to topics related to linear model theory. No attempt is made to give a comprehensive treatment of the topics. Such an effort would be futile. Each chapter is on a topic so broad that an in depth discussion would require a book-Iength treatment. People need to impose structure on the world in order to understand it. There is a limit to the number of unrelated facts that anyone can remem­ ber. If ideas can be put within a broad, sophisticatedly simple structure, not only are they easier to remember but often new insights become avail­ able. In fact, sophisticatedly simple models of the world may be the only ones that work. I have often heard Arnold Zellner say that, to the best of his knowledge, this is true in econometrics. The process of modeling is fundamental to understand...

  20. Monitoring Poisson time series using multi-process models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engebjerg, Malene Dahl Skov; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Kjær, Birgitte B.

    aspects of health resource management may also be addressed. In this paper we center on the detection of outbreaks of infectious diseases. This is achieved by a multi-process Poisson state space model taking autocorrelation and overdispersion into account, which has been applied to a data set concerning...

  1. SSM: Inference for time series analysis with State Space Models

    OpenAIRE

    Dureau, Joseph; Ballesteros, Sébastien; Bogich, Tiffany

    2013-01-01

    The main motivation behind the open source library SSM is to reduce the technical friction that prevents modellers from sharing their work, quickly iterating in crisis situations, and making their work directly usable by public authorities to serve decision-making.

  2. Modeling Financial Time Series Based on a Market Microstructure Model with Leverage Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhui Xi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The basic market microstructure model specifies that the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation are independent Gaussian white noise processes. However, the financial leverage effect has been found to be statistically significant in many financial time series. In this paper, a novel market microstructure model with leverage effects is proposed. The model specification assumed a negative correlation in the errors between the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation. With the new representations, a theoretical explanation of leverage effect is provided. Simulated data and daily stock market indices (Shanghai composite index, Shenzhen component index, and Standard and Poor’s 500 Composite index via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method are used to estimate the leverage market microstructure model. The results verify the effectiveness of the model and its estimation approach proposed in the paper and also indicate that the stock markets have strong leverage effects. Compared with the classical leverage stochastic volatility (SV model in terms of DIC (Deviance Information Criterion, the leverage market microstructure model fits the data better.

  3. Spatially adaptive mixture modeling for analysis of FMRI time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Thomas; Risser, Laurent; Ciuciu, Philippe

    2010-04-01

    Within-subject analysis in fMRI essentially addresses two problems, the detection of brain regions eliciting evoked activity and the estimation of the underlying dynamics. In Makni et aL, 2005 and Makni et aL, 2008, a detection-estimation framework has been proposed to tackle these problems jointly, since they are connected to one another. In the Bayesian formalism, detection is achieved by modeling activating and nonactivating voxels through independent mixture models (IMM) within each region while hemodynamic response estimation is performed at a regional scale in a nonparametric way. Instead of IMMs, in this paper we take advantage of spatial mixture models (SMM) for their nonlinear spatial regularizing properties. The proposed method is unsupervised and spatially adaptive in the sense that the amount of spatial correlation is automatically tuned from the data and this setting automatically varies across brain regions. In addition, the level of regularization is specific to each experimental condition since both the signal-to-noise ratio and the activation pattern may vary across stimulus types in a given brain region. These aspects require the precise estimation of multiple partition functions of underlying Ising fields. This is addressed efficiently using first path sampling for a small subset of fields and then using a recently developed fast extrapolation technique for the large remaining set. Simulation results emphasize that detection relying on supervised SMM outperforms its IMM counterpart and that unsupervised spatial mixture models achieve similar results without any hand-tuning of the correlation parameter. On real datasets, the gain is illustrated in a localizer fMRI experiment: brain activations appear more spatially resolved using SMM in comparison with classical general linear model (GLM)-based approaches, while estimating a specific parcel-based HRF shape. Our approach therefore validates the treatment of unsmoothed fMRI data without fixed GLM

  4. Bayesian Modelling of fMRI Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højen-Sørensen, Pedro; Hansen, Lars Kai; Rasmussen, Carl Edward

    2000-01-01

    We present a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for inferring the hidden psychological state (or neural activity) during single trial fMRI activation experiments with blocked task paradigms. Inference is based on Bayesian methodology, using a combination of analytical and a variety of Markov Chain Monte...... Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques. The advantage of this method is that detection of short time learning effects between repeated trials is possible since inference is based only on single trial experiments....

  5. 2014 NEPP Tasks Update for Ceramic and Tantalum Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teverovsky, Alexander A.

    2014-01-01

    Presentation describes recent development in research on MnO2, wet, and polymer tantalum capacitors. Low-voltage failures in multilayer ceramic capacitors and techniques to reveal precious metal electrode (PME) and base metal electrode (BME) capacitors with cracks are discussed. A voltage breakdown technique is suggested to select high quality low-voltage BME ceramic capacitors.

  6. Charge Fluctuations in Nanoscale Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limmer, David T.; Merlet, Céline; Salanne, Mathieu; Chandler, David; Madden, Paul A.; van Roij, René; Rotenberg, Benjamin

    2013-09-01

    The fluctuations of the charge on an electrode contain information on the microscopic correlations within the adjacent fluid and their effect on the electronic properties of the interface. We investigate these fluctuations using molecular dynamics simulations in a constant-potential ensemble with histogram reweighting techniques. This approach offers, in particular, an efficient, accurate, and physically insightful route to the differential capacitance that is broadly applicable. We demonstrate these methods with three different capacitors: pure water between platinum electrodes and a pure as well as a solvent-based organic electrolyte each between graphite electrodes. The total charge distributions with the pure solvent and solvent-based electrolytes are remarkably Gaussian, while in the pure ionic liquid the total charge distribution displays distinct non-Gaussian features, suggesting significant potential-driven changes in the organization of the interfacial fluid.

  7. Charge fluctuations in nanoscale capacitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limmer, David T; Merlet, Céline; Salanne, Mathieu; Chandler, David; Madden, Paul A; van Roij, René; Rotenberg, Benjamin

    2013-09-06

    The fluctuations of the charge on an electrode contain information on the microscopic correlations within the adjacent fluid and their effect on the electronic properties of the interface. We investigate these fluctuations using molecular dynamics simulations in a constant-potential ensemble with histogram reweighting techniques. This approach offers, in particular, an efficient, accurate, and physically insightful route to the differential capacitance that is broadly applicable. We demonstrate these methods with three different capacitors: pure water between platinum electrodes and a pure as well as a solvent-based organic electrolyte each between graphite electrodes. The total charge distributions with the pure solvent and solvent-based electrolytes are remarkably Gaussian, while in the pure ionic liquid the total charge distribution displays distinct non-Gaussian features, suggesting significant potential-driven changes in the organization of the interfacial fluid.

  8. MODELLING BIOPHYSICAL PARAMETERS OF MAIZE USING LANDSAT 8 TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Dahms

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Open and free access to multi-frequent high-resolution data (e.g. Sentinel – 2 will fortify agricultural applications based on satellite data. The temporal and spatial resolution of these remote sensing datasets directly affects the applicability of remote sensing methods, for instance a robust retrieving of biophysical parameters over the entire growing season with very high geometric resolution. In this study we use machine learning methods to predict biophysical parameters, namely the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic radiation (FPAR, the leaf area index (LAI and the chlorophyll content, from high resolution remote sensing. 30 Landsat 8 OLI scenes were available in our study region in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany. In-situ data were weekly to bi-weekly collected on 18 maize plots throughout the summer season 2015. The study aims at an optimized prediction of biophysical parameters and the identification of the best explaining spectral bands and vegetation indices. For this purpose, we used the entire in-situ dataset from 24.03.2015 to 15.10.2015. Random forest and conditional inference forests were used because of their explicit strong exploratory and predictive character. Variable importance measures allowed for analysing the relation between the biophysical parameters with respect to the spectral response, and the performance of the two approaches over the plant stock evolvement. Classical random forest regression outreached the performance of conditional inference forests, in particular when modelling the biophysical parameters over the entire growing period. For example, modelling biophysical parameters of maize for the entire vegetation period using random forests yielded: FPAR: R² = 0.85; RMSE = 0.11; LAI: R² = 0.64; RMSE = 0.9 and chlorophyll content (SPAD: R² = 0.80; RMSE=4.9. Our results demonstrate the great potential in using machine-learning methods for the interpretation of long-term multi-frequent remote sensing

  9. Modelling Biophysical Parameters of Maize Using Landsat 8 Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahms, Thorsten; Seissiger, Sylvia; Conrad, Christopher; Borg, Erik

    2016-06-01

    Open and free access to multi-frequent high-resolution data (e.g. Sentinel - 2) will fortify agricultural applications based on satellite data. The temporal and spatial resolution of these remote sensing datasets directly affects the applicability of remote sensing methods, for instance a robust retrieving of biophysical parameters over the entire growing season with very high geometric resolution. In this study we use machine learning methods to predict biophysical parameters, namely the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic radiation (FPAR), the leaf area index (LAI) and the chlorophyll content, from high resolution remote sensing. 30 Landsat 8 OLI scenes were available in our study region in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany. In-situ data were weekly to bi-weekly collected on 18 maize plots throughout the summer season 2015. The study aims at an optimized prediction of biophysical parameters and the identification of the best explaining spectral bands and vegetation indices. For this purpose, we used the entire in-situ dataset from 24.03.2015 to 15.10.2015. Random forest and conditional inference forests were used because of their explicit strong exploratory and predictive character. Variable importance measures allowed for analysing the relation between the biophysical parameters with respect to the spectral response, and the performance of the two approaches over the plant stock evolvement. Classical random forest regression outreached the performance of conditional inference forests, in particular when modelling the biophysical parameters over the entire growing period. For example, modelling biophysical parameters of maize for the entire vegetation period using random forests yielded: FPAR: R² = 0.85; RMSE = 0.11; LAI: R² = 0.64; RMSE = 0.9 and chlorophyll content (SPAD): R² = 0.80; RMSE=4.9. Our results demonstrate the great potential in using machine-learning methods for the interpretation of long-term multi-frequent remote sensing datasets to model

  10. Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

  11. An Illustration of Generalised Arma (garma) Time Series Modeling of Forest Area in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, Thulasyammal Ramiah; Shitan, Mahendran

    Forestry is the art and science of managing forests, tree plantations, and related natural resources. The main goal of forestry is to create and implement systems that allow forests to continue a sustainable provision of environmental supplies and services. Forest area is land under natural or planted stands of trees, whether productive or not. Forest area of Malaysia has been observed over the years and it can be modeled using time series models. A new class of GARMA models have been introduced in the time series literature to reveal some hidden features in time series data. For these models to be used widely in practice, we illustrate the fitting of GARMA (1, 1; 1, δ) model to the Annual Forest Area data of Malaysia which has been observed from 1987 to 2008. The estimation of the model was done using Hannan-Rissanen Algorithm, Whittle's Estimation and Maximum Likelihood Estimation.

  12. Nonlinearity, Breaks, and Long-Range Dependence in Time-Series Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hillebrand, Eric Tobias; Medeiros, Marcelo C.

    We study the simultaneous occurrence of long memory and nonlinear effects, such as parameter changes and threshold effects, in ARMA time series models and apply our modeling framework to daily realized volatility. Asymptotic theory for parameter estimation is developed and two model building...

  13. Assessing and improving the quality of modeling : a series of empirical studies about the UML

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lange, C.F.J.

    2007-01-01

    Assessing and Improving the Quality of Modeling A Series of Empirical Studies about the UML This thesis addresses the assessment and improvement of the quality of modeling in software engineering. In particular, we focus on the Unified Modeling Language (UML), which is the de facto standard in

  14. Contribution to dimensioning a pack of super-capacitors for 12/42 V application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rafik, F.; Karmous, M. [Ecole d' Ingenieurs de l' Arc Jurassien, CH (Switzerland); Gualous, H.; Berthon, A. [Universite de Franche-Comte, Lab. en Electronique, Electrotechnique et Systemes (L2ES), UTBM, 90 - Belfort (France); Gallay, R. [Maxwell Technologies, CH (Switzerland)

    2004-07-01

    Increase power demands on automotive are making current 12/14 V electrical systems inadequate. The total power demand will triple in some cars from 800 W today to an average of 2500 W and into kW range for peak demand in the future. Super-capacitor can be used for energy storage and for peak power requirement in order to increase the efficiency and the life cycle of the system. However, the sizing of energy storage with super-capacitors is very important for embedded applications, because of the weight and the volume of the system. This paper presents a sizing method of a pack of super-capacitors. The proposed method is based on the power and energy demand. In order to validate this method, a model of the Maxwell cell BCAP0010 of super-capacitors is presented and implemented in the SIMPLORER software. (authors)

  15. A Four-Stage Hybrid Model for Hydrological Time Series Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di, Chongli; Yang, Xiaohua; Wang, Xiaochao

    2014-01-01

    Hydrological time series forecasting remains a difficult task due to its complicated nonlinear, non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics. To solve this difficulty and improve the prediction accuracy, a novel four-stage hybrid model is proposed for hydrological time series forecasting based on the principle of ‘denoising, decomposition and ensemble’. The proposed model has four stages, i.e., denoising, decomposition, components prediction and ensemble. In the denoising stage, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is utilized to reduce the noises in the hydrological time series. Then, an improved method of EMD, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), is applied to decompose the denoised series into a number of intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residual component. Next, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is adopted to predict the trend of all of the components obtained in the decomposition stage. In the final ensemble prediction stage, the forecasting results of all of the IMF and residual components obtained in the third stage are combined to generate the final prediction results, using a linear neural network (LNN) model. For illustration and verification, six hydrological cases with different characteristics are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed hybrid model performs better than conventional single models, the hybrid models without denoising or decomposition and the hybrid models based on other methods, such as the wavelet analysis (WA)-based hybrid models. In addition, the denoising and decomposition strategies decrease the complexity of the series and reduce the difficulties of the forecasting. With its effective denoising and accurate decomposition ability, high prediction precision and wide applicability, the new model is very promising for complex time series forecasting. This new forecast model is an extension of nonlinear prediction models. PMID:25111782

  16. A four-stage hybrid model for hydrological time series forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di, Chongli; Yang, Xiaohua; Wang, Xiaochao

    2014-01-01

    Hydrological time series forecasting remains a difficult task due to its complicated nonlinear, non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics. To solve this difficulty and improve the prediction accuracy, a novel four-stage hybrid model is proposed for hydrological time series forecasting based on the principle of 'denoising, decomposition and ensemble'. The proposed model has four stages, i.e., denoising, decomposition, components prediction and ensemble. In the denoising stage, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is utilized to reduce the noises in the hydrological time series. Then, an improved method of EMD, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), is applied to decompose the denoised series into a number of intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residual component. Next, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is adopted to predict the trend of all of the components obtained in the decomposition stage. In the final ensemble prediction stage, the forecasting results of all of the IMF and residual components obtained in the third stage are combined to generate the final prediction results, using a linear neural network (LNN) model. For illustration and verification, six hydrological cases with different characteristics are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed hybrid model performs better than conventional single models, the hybrid models without denoising or decomposition and the hybrid models based on other methods, such as the wavelet analysis (WA)-based hybrid models. In addition, the denoising and decomposition strategies decrease the complexity of the series and reduce the difficulties of the forecasting. With its effective denoising and accurate decomposition ability, high prediction precision and wide applicability, the new model is very promising for complex time series forecasting. This new forecast model is an extension of nonlinear prediction models.

  17. Stochastic model stationarization by eliminating the periodic term and its effect on time series prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeeni, Hamid; Bonakdari, Hossein; Fatemi, Seyed Ehsan

    2017-04-01

    Because time series stationarization has a key role in stochastic modeling results, three methods are analyzed in this study. The methods are seasonal differencing, seasonal standardization and spectral analysis to eliminate the periodic effect on time series stationarity. First, six time series including 4 streamflow series and 2 water temperature series are stationarized. The stochastic term for these series obtained with ARIMA is subsequently modeled. For the analysis, 9228 models are introduced. It is observed that seasonal standardization and spectral analysis eliminate the periodic term completely, while seasonal differencing maintains seasonal correlation structures. The obtained results indicate that all three methods present acceptable performance overall. However, model accuracy in monthly streamflow prediction is higher with seasonal differencing than with the other two methods. Another advantage of seasonal differencing over the other methods is that the monthly streamflow is never estimated as negative. Standardization is the best method for predicting monthly water temperature although it is quite similar to seasonal differencing, while spectral analysis performed the weakest in all cases. It is concluded that for each monthly seasonal series, seasonal differencing is the best stationarization method in terms of periodic effect elimination. Moreover, the monthly water temperature is predicted with more accuracy than monthly streamflow. The criteria of the average stochastic term divided by the amplitude of the periodic term obtained for monthly streamflow and monthly water temperature were 0.19 and 0.30, 0.21 and 0.13, and 0.07 and 0.04 respectively. As a result, the periodic term is more dominant than the stochastic term for water temperature in the monthly water temperature series compared to streamflow series.

  18. Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques of Unobserved Component Time Series Models Using Ox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nonejad, Nima

    This paper details Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for analysis of unobserved component time series models using several economic data sets. PMCMC combines the particle filter with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Overall PMCMC provides a very compelling, computationally fast...... and efficient framework for estimation. These advantages are used to for instance estimate stochastic volatility models with leverage effect or with Student-t distributed errors. We also model changing time series characteristics of the US inflation rate by considering a heteroskedastic ARFIMA model where...

  19. Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

    2017-09-01

    Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

  20. Road safety forecasts in five European countries using structural time series models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George

    2014-01-01

    Modeling road safety development is a complex task and needs to consider both the quantifiable impact of specific parameters as well as the underlying trends that cannot always be measured or observed. The objective of this research is to apply structural time series models for obtaining reliable medium- to long-term forecasts of road traffic fatality risk using data from 5 countries with different characteristics from all over Europe (Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Norway, and Switzerland). Two structural time series models are considered: (1) the local linear trend model and the (2) latent risk time series model. Furthermore, a structured decision tree for the selection of the applicable model for each situation (developed within the Road Safety Data, Collection, Transfer and Analysis [DaCoTA] research project, cofunded by the European Commission) is outlined. First, the fatality and exposure data that are used for the development of the models are presented and explored. Then, the modeling process is presented, including the model selection process, introduction of intervention variables, and development of mobility scenarios. The forecasts using the developed models appear to be realistic and within acceptable confidence intervals. The proposed methodology is proved to be very efficient for handling different cases of data availability and quality, providing an appropriate alternative from the family of structural time series models in each country. A concluding section providing perspectives and directions for future research is presented.

  1. Physical and Electrical Characterization of Polymer Aluminum Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, David; Sampson, Michael J.

    2010-01-01

    Polymer aluminum capacitors from several manufacturers with various combinations of capacitance, rated voltage, and ESR values were physically examined and electrically characterized. The physical construction analysis of the capacitors revealed three different capacitor structures, i.e., traditional wound, stacked, and laminated. Electrical characterization results of polymer aluminum capacitors are reported for frequency-domain dielectric response at various temperatures, surge breakdown voltage, and other dielectric properties. The structure-property relations in polymer aluminum capacitors are discussed.

  2. Physical and Electrical Characterization of Aluminum Polymer Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, David; Sampson, Michael J.

    2010-01-01

    Polymer aluminum capacitors from several manufacturers with various combinations of capacitance, rated voltage, and ESR values were physically examined and electrically characterized. The physical construction analysis of the capacitors revealed three different capacitor structures, i.e., traditional wound, stacked, and laminated. Electrical characterization results of polymer aluminum capacitors are reported for frequency-domain dielectric response at various temperatures, surge breakdown voltage, and other dielectric properties. The structure-property relations in polymer aluminum capacitors are discussed.

  3. Capacitor Voltages Measurement and Balancing in Flying Capacitor Multilevel Converters Utilizing a Single Voltage Sensor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farivar, Glen; Ghias, Amer M. Y. M.; Hredzak, Branislav

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new method for measuring capacitor voltages in multilevel flying capacitor (FC) converters that requires only one voltage sensor per phase leg. Multiple dc voltage sensors traditionally used to measure the capacitor voltages are replaced with a single voltage sensor at the ac...... side of the phase leg. The proposed method is subsequently used to balance the capacitor voltages using only the measured ac voltage. The operation of the proposed measurement and balancing method is independent of the number of the converter levels. Experimental results presented for a five-level FC...

  4. High Energy Density Capacitors, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Capacitor size and reliability are often limiting factors in pulse power, high speed switching, and power management and distribution (PMAD) systems. T/J...

  5. High Energy Density Polymer Film Capacitors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Boufelfel, Ali

    2006-01-01

    High-energy-density capacitors that are compact and light-weight are extremely valuable in a number of critical DoD systems that include portable field equipment, pulsed lasers, detection equipment...

  6. The Impact of Grid Unbalances on the Reliability of DC-link Capacitors in a Motor Drive

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Davari, Pooya; Kumar, Dinesh

    2017-01-01

    DC-link capacitor is one of the reliability-critical components in motor drive applications, which contributes to a considerable cost, size and failure. Its reliability performance depends on both inherent physical strength and external loading. The grid unbalances could alter the electro......-thermal stresses of key components in a motor drive. Therefore, this digest investigates the impact of grid voltage amplitude and phase unbalances on the lifetime of DC-link capacitors used in a standard three-phase motor drive. The theoretical stress models and experimental measurements of the capacitor voltages...... and ripple currents are presented. The relationship between the DC-link capacitor lifetime and the level of unbalances and loads are discussed based on a 7.5 kW motor drive system. The results serve as a guideline to size the DC-link capacitors to be robust enough at the presence of grid unbalance conditions....

  7. Travel Cost Inference from Sparse, Spatio-Temporally Correlated Time Series Using Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Bin; Guo, Chenjuan; Jensen, Christian S.

    2013-01-01

    of such time series offers insight into the underlying system and enables prediction of system behavior. While the techniques presented in the paper apply more generally, we consider the case of transportation systems and aim to predict travel cost from GPS tracking data from probe vehicles. Specifically, each...... road segment has an associated travel-cost time series, which is derived from GPS data. We use spatio-temporal hidden Markov models (STHMM) to model correlations among different traffic time series. We provide algorithms that are able to learn the parameters of an STHMM while contending...... with the sparsity, spatio-temporal correlation, and heterogeneity of the time series. Using the resulting STHMM, near future travel costs in the transportation network, e.g., travel time or greenhouse gas emissions, can be inferred, enabling a variety of routing services, e.g., eco-routing. Empirical studies...

  8. Adaptive time-variant models for fuzzy-time-series forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Wai-Keung; Bai, Enjian; Chu, Alice Wai-Ching

    2010-12-01

    A fuzzy time series has been applied to the prediction of enrollment, temperature, stock indices, and other domains. Related studies mainly focus on three factors, namely, the partition of discourse, the content of forecasting rules, and the methods of defuzzification, all of which greatly influence the prediction accuracy of forecasting models. These studies use fixed analysis window sizes for forecasting. In this paper, an adaptive time-variant fuzzy-time-series forecasting model (ATVF) is proposed to improve forecasting accuracy. The proposed model automatically adapts the analysis window size of fuzzy time series based on the prediction accuracy in the training phase and uses heuristic rules to generate forecasting values in the testing phase. The performance of the ATVF model is tested using both simulated and actual time series including the enrollments at the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, and the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX). The experiment results show that the proposed ATVF model achieves a significant improvement in forecasting accuracy as compared to other fuzzy-time-series forecasting models.

  9. Single ICCII Sinusoidal Oscillators Employing Grounded Capacitors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. W. Horng

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Two inverting second-generation current conveyors (ICCII based sinusoidal oscillators are presented. The first sinusoidal oscillator is composed of one ICCII, two grounded capacitors and two resistors. The oscillation condition and oscillation frequency can be orthogonally controllable. The second sinusoidal oscillator is composed of one ICCII, two grounded capacitors and three resistors. The oscillation condition and oscillation frequency can be independently controllable through different resistors.

  10. Cellulose triacetate, thin film dielectric capacitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Shiao-Ping S. (Inventor); Jow, T. Richard (Inventor)

    1995-01-01

    Very thin films of cellulose triacetate are cast from a solution containing a small amount of high boiling temperature, non-solvent which evaporates last and lifts the film from the casting surface. Stretched, oriented, crystallized films have high electrical breakdown properties. Metallized films less than about 2 microns in thickness form self-healing electrodes for high energy density, pulsed power capacitors. Thicker films can be utilized as a dielectric for a capacitor.

  11. A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method

    OpenAIRE

    Jun-He Yang; Ching-Hsue Cheng; Chia-Pan Chan

    2017-01-01

    Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir's water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting m...

  12. Applying ARIMA model for annual volume time series of the Magdalena River

    OpenAIRE

    Gloria Amaris; Humberto Ávila; Thomas Guerrero

    2017-01-01

    Context: Climate change effects, human interventions, and river characteristics are factors that increase the risk on the population and the water resources. However, negative impacts such as flooding, and river droughts may be previously identified using appropriate numerical tools. Objectives: The annual volume (Millions of m3/year) time series of the Magdalena River was analyzed by an ARIMA model, using the historical time series of the Calamar station (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteoro...

  13. Characteristics of the LeRC/Hughes J-series 30-cm engineering model thruster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collett, C. R.; Poeschel, R. L.; Kami, S.

    1981-01-01

    As a consequence of endurance and structural tests performed on 900-series engineering model thrusters (EMT), several modifications in design were found to be necessary for achieving performance goals. The modified thruster is known as the J-series EMT. The most important of the design modifications affect the accelerator grid, gimbal mount, cathode polepiece, and wiring harness. The paper discusses the design modifications incorporated, the condition(s) they corrected, and the characteristics of the modified thruster.

  14. Evaluation of Ferrite Chip Beads as Surge Current Limiters in Circuits with Tantalum Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teverovsky, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    Limiting resistors are currently required to be connected in series with tantalum capacitors to reduce the risk of surge current failures. However, application of limiting resistors decreases substantially the efficiency of the power supply systems. An ideal surge current limiting device should have a negligible resistance for DC currents and high resistance at frequencies corresponding to transients in tantalum capacitors. This work evaluates the possibility of using chip ferrite beads (FB) as such devices. Twelve types of small size FBs from three manufacturers were used to evaluate their robustness under soldering stresses and at high surge current spikes associated with transients in tantalum capacitors. Results show that FBs are capable to withstand current pulses that are substantially greater than the specified current limits. However, due to a sharp decrease of impedance with current, FBs do not reduce surge currents to the required level that can be achieved with regular resistors.

  15. High voltage AC/AC electrochemical capacitor operating at low temperature in salt aqueous electrolyte

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, Qamar; Béguin, François

    2016-06-01

    We demonstrate that an activated carbon (AC)-based electrochemical capacitor implementing aqueous lithium sulfate electrolyte in 7:3 vol:vol water/methanol mixture can operate down to -40 °C with good electrochemical performance. Three-electrode cell investigations show that the faradaic contributions related with hydrogen chemisorption in the negative AC electrode are thermodynamically unfavored at -40 °C, enabling the system to work as a typical electrical double-layer (EDL) capacitor. After prolonged floating of the AC/AC capacitor at 1.6 V and -40°C, the capacitance, equivalent series resistance and efficiency remain constant, demonstrating the absence of ageing related with side redox reactions at this temperature. Interestingly, when temperature is increased back to 24 °C, the redox behavior due to hydrogen storage reappears and the system behaves as a freshly prepared one.

  16. Effects of Processing Temperatures of Nickel Plating on Capacitance Density of Alumina Film Capacitor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Myung-Sun; Ju, Byeong-Kwon; Lee, Jeon-Kook

    2015-06-01

    We observed the effects of nickel plating temperatures for controlling the surface morphologies of the deposited nickel layers on the alumina nano-pores. The alumina nano-channels were filled with nickel at various processing temperatures of 60-90 degrees C. The electrical properties of the alumina film capacitors were changed with processing temperatures. The electroless nickel plating (ENP) at 60 degrees C improved the nickel penetration into the alumina nano-channels due to the reduced reaction rate. Nickel layers are uniformly formed on the high aspect ratio alumina pores. Due to the uniform nickel electrode, the capacitance density of the alumina film capacitors is improved by the low leakage current, dissipation factor and equivalent series resistance. Alumina film capacitors made by ENP at 60 degrees C had a high capacitance density of 160 nF/cm2.

  17. Capacitor blocks for linear transformer driver stages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchuk, B M; Kharlov, A V; Kumpyak, E V; Smorudov, G V; Zherlitsyn, A A

    2014-01-01

    In the Linear Transformer Driver (LTD) technology, the low inductance energy storage components and switches are directly incorporated into the individual cavities (named stages) to generate a fast output voltage pulse, which is added along a vacuum coaxial line like in an inductive voltage adder. LTD stages with air insulation were recently developed, where air is used both as insulation in a primary side of the stages and as working gas in the LTD spark gap switches. A custom designed unit, referred to as a capacitor block, was developed for use as a main structural element of the transformer stages. The capacitor block incorporates two capacitors GA 35426 (40 nF, 100 kV) and multichannel multigap gas switch. Several modifications of the capacitor blocks were developed and tested on the life time and self breakdown probability. Blocks were tested both as separate units and in an assembly of capacitive module, consisting of five capacitor blocks. This paper presents detailed design of capacitor blocks, description of operation regimes, numerical simulation of electric field in the switches, and test results.

  18. Protection of MOS capacitors during anodic bonding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schjølberg-Henriksen, K.; Plaza, J. A.; Rafí, J. M.; Esteve, J.; Campabadal, F.; Santander, J.; Jensen, G. U.; Hanneborg, A.

    2002-07-01

    We have investigated the electrical damage by anodic bonding on CMOS-quality gate oxide and methods to prevent this damage. n-type and p-type MOS capacitors were characterized by quasi-static and high-frequency CV-curves before and after anodic bonding. Capacitors that were bonded to a Pyrex wafer with 10 μm deep cavities enclosing the capacitors exhibited increased leakage current and interface trap density after bonding. Two different methods were successful in protecting the capacitors from such damage. Our first approach was to increase the cavity depth from 10 μm to 50 μm, thus reducing the electric field across the gate oxide during bonding from approximately 2 × 105 V cm-1 to 4 × 104 V cm-1. The second protection method was to coat the inside of a 10 μm deep Pyrex glass cavity with aluminium, forming a Faraday cage that removed the electric field across the cavity during anodic bonding. Both methods resulted in capacitors with decreased interface trap density and unchanged leakage current after bonding. No change in effective oxide charge or mobile ion contamination was observed on any of the capacitors in the study.

  19. Development of Simulink-Based SiC MOSFET Modeling Platform for Series Connected Devices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsolaridis, Georgios; Ilves, Kalle; Reigosa, Paula Diaz

    2016-01-01

    A new MATLAB/Simulink-based modeling platform has been developed for SiC MOSFET power modules. The modeling platform describes the electrical behavior f a single 1.2 kV/ 350 A SiC MOSFET power module, as well as the series connection of two of them. A fast parameter initialization is followed...... by an optimization process to facilitate the extraction of the model’s parameters in a more automated way relying on a small number of experimental waveforms. Through extensive experimental work, it is shown that the model accurately predicts both static and dynamic performances. The series connection of two Si......C power modules has been investigated through the validation of the static and dynamic conditions. Thanks to the developed model, a better understanding of the challenges introduced by uneven voltage balance sharing among series connected devices is possible....

  20. The application of time series models to cloud field morphology analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Roland T.; Jau, Jack Y. C.; Weinman, James A.

    1987-01-01

    A modeling method for the quantitative description of remotely sensed cloud field images is presented. A two-dimensional texture modeling scheme based on one-dimensional time series procedures is adopted for this purpose. The time series procedure used is the seasonal autoregressive, moving average (ARMA) process in Box and Jenkins. Cloud field properties such as directionality, clustering and cloud coverage can be retrieved by this method. It has been demonstrated that a cloud field image can be quantitatively defined by a small set of parameters and synthesized surrogates can be reconstructed from these model parameters. This method enables cloud climatology to be studied quantitatively.

  1. Image reconstruction method for electrical capacitance tomography based on the combined series and parallel normalization model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, Xiangyuan; Guo, Shuqing

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a novel image reconstruction method for electrical capacitance tomography (ECT) based on the combined series and parallel model is presented. A regularization technique is used to obtain a stabilized solution of the inverse problem. Also, the adaptive coefficient of the combined model is deduced by numerical optimization. Simulation results indicate that it can produce higher quality images when compared to the algorithm based on the parallel or series models for the cases tested in this paper. It provides a new algorithm for ECT application

  2. Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models for Multivariate Integer-Valued Time-Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Catania, Leopoldo; Di Mari, Roberto

    2018-01-01

    We propose a new flexible dynamic model for multivariate nonnegative integer-valued time-series. Observations are assumed to depend on the realization of two additional unobserved integer-valued stochastic variables which control for the time-and cross-dependence of the data. An Expectation......-Maximization algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the model's parameters is derived. We provide conditional and unconditional (cross)-moments implied by the model, as well as the limiting distribution of the series. A Monte Carlo experiment investigates the finite sample properties of our estimation...

  3. A new model for reliability optimization of series-parallel systems with non-homogeneous components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feizabadi, Mohammad; Jahromi, Abdolhamid Eshraghniaye

    2017-01-01

    In discussions related to reliability optimization using redundancy allocation, one of the structures that has attracted the attention of many researchers, is series-parallel structure. In models previously presented for reliability optimization of series-parallel systems, there is a restricting assumption based on which all components of a subsystem must be homogeneous. This constraint limits system designers in selecting components and prevents achieving higher levels of reliability. In this paper, a new model is proposed for reliability optimization of series-parallel systems, which makes possible the use of non-homogeneous components in each subsystem. As a result of this flexibility, the process of supplying system components will be easier. To solve the proposed model, since the redundancy allocation problem (RAP) belongs to the NP-hard class of optimization problems, a genetic algorithm (GA) is developed. The computational results of the designed GA are indicative of high performance of the proposed model in increasing system reliability and decreasing costs. - Highlights: • In this paper, a new model is proposed for reliability optimization of series-parallel systems. • In the previous models, there is a restricting assumption based on which all components of a subsystem must be homogeneous. • The presented model provides a possibility for the subsystems’ components to be non- homogeneous in the required conditions. • The computational results demonstrate the high performance of the proposed model in improving reliability and reducing costs.

  4. Effect of calibration data series length on performance and optimal parameters of hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan-zhe Li

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to assess the effects of calibration data series length on the performance and optimal parameter values of a hydrological model in ungauged or data-limited catchments (data are non-continuous and fragmental in some catchments, we used non-continuous calibration periods for more independent streamflow data for SIMHYD (simple hydrology model calibration. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percentage water balance error were used as performance measures. The particle swarm optimization (PSO method was used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff models. Different lengths of data series ranging from one year to ten years, randomly sampled, were used to study the impact of calibration data series length. Fifty-five relatively unimpaired catchments located all over Australia with daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and streamflow data were tested to obtain more general conclusions. The results show that longer calibration data series do not necessarily result in better model performance. In general, eight years of data are sufficient to obtain steady estimates of model performance and parameters for the SIMHYD model. It is also shown that most humid catchments require fewer calibration data to obtain a good performance and stable parameter values. The model performs better in humid and semi-humid catchments than in arid catchments. Our results may have useful and interesting implications for the efficiency of using limited observation data for hydrological model calibration in different climates.

  5. Bayesian near-boundary analysis in basic macroeconomic time series models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.D. de Pooter (Michiel); F. Ravazzolo (Francesco); R. Segers (René); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractSeveral lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic

  6. Applying ARIMA model for annual volume time series of the Magdalena River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Amaris

    2017-04-01

    Conclusions: The simulated results obtained with the ARIMA model compared to the observed data showed a fairly good adjustment of the minimum and maximum magnitudes. This allows concluding that it is a good tool for estimating minimum and maximum volumes, even though this model is not capable of simulating the exact behaviour of an annual volume time series.

  7. Decoupling of modeling and measuring interval in groundwater time series analysis based on response characteristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berendrecht, W.L.; Heemink, A.W.; Geer, F.C. van; Gehrels, J.C.

    2003-01-01

    A state-space representation of the transfer function-noise (TFN) model allows the choice of a modeling (input) interval that is smaller than the measuring interval of the output variable. Since in geohydrological applications the interval of the available input series (precipitation excess) is

  8. 78 FR 65155 - Special Conditions: Learjet Model 45 Series Airplanes; Isolation or Security Protection of the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-31

    ... an association, business, labor union, etc.). DOT's complete Privacy Act Statement can be found in... supplemental type certificate (STC) change in the digital systems architecture in the Learjet Model 45 series... plus two crew members. The proposed Learjet Model 45 architecture is new and novel for commercial...

  9. Adaptive Anchoring Model: How Static and Dynamic Presentations of Time Series Influence Judgments and Predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusev, Petko; van Schaik, Paul; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Juliusson, Asgeir; Chater, Nick

    2018-01-01

    When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. One psychological characteristic of judgmental forecasting of time series, established by research, is that when people make forecasts from series, they tend to underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones, so-called trend-damping (modeled by anchoring on, and insufficient adjustment from, the average of recent time series values). Events in a time series can be experienced sequentially (dynamic mode), or they can also be retrospectively viewed simultaneously (static mode), not experienced individually in real time. In one experiment, we studied the influence of presentation mode (dynamic and static) on two sorts of judgment: (a) predictions of the next event (forecast) and (b) estimation of the average value of all the events in the presented series (average estimation). Participants' responses in dynamic mode were anchored on more recent events than in static mode for all types of judgment but with different consequences; hence, dynamic presentation improved prediction accuracy, but not estimation. These results are not anticipated by existing theoretical accounts; we develop and present an agent-based model-the adaptive anchoring model (ADAM)-to account for the difference between processing sequences of dynamically and statically presented stimuli (visually presented data). ADAM captures how variation in presentation mode produces variation in responses (and the accuracy of these responses) in both forecasting and judgment tasks. ADAM's model predictions for the forecasting and judgment tasks fit better with the response data than a linear-regression time series model. Moreover, ADAM outperformed autoregressive-integrated-moving-average (ARIMA) and exponential-smoothing models, while neither of these models accounts for people's responses on the average estimation task. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Cognitive Science published by Wiley

  10. New insights into soil temperature time series modeling: linear or nonlinear?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonakdari, Hossein; Moeeni, Hamid; Ebtehaj, Isa; Zeynoddin, Mohammad; Mahoammadian, Abdolmajid; Gharabaghi, Bahram

    2018-03-01

    Soil temperature (ST) is an important dynamic parameter, whose prediction is a major research topic in various fields including agriculture because ST has a critical role in hydrological processes at the soil surface. In this study, a new linear methodology is proposed based on stochastic methods for modeling daily soil temperature (DST). With this approach, the ST series components are determined to carry out modeling and spectral analysis. The results of this process are compared with two linear methods based on seasonal standardization and seasonal differencing in terms of four DST series. The series used in this study were measured at two stations, Champaign and Springfield, at depths of 10 and 20 cm. The results indicate that in all ST series reviewed, the periodic term is the most robust among all components. According to a comparison of the three methods applied to analyze the various series components, it appears that spectral analysis combined with stochastic methods outperformed the seasonal standardization and seasonal differencing methods. In addition to comparing the proposed methodology with linear methods, the ST modeling results were compared with the two nonlinear methods in two forms: considering hydrological variables (HV) as input variables and DST modeling as a time series. In a previous study at the mentioned sites, Kim and Singh Theor Appl Climatol 118:465-479, (2014) applied the popular Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) neural network and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) nonlinear methods and considered HV as input variables. The comparison results signify that the relative error projected in estimating DST by the proposed methodology was about 6%, while this value with MLP and ANFIS was over 15%. Moreover, MLP and ANFIS models were employed for DST time series modeling. Due to these models' relatively inferior performance to the proposed methodology, two hybrid models were implemented: the weights and membership function of MLP and

  11. A Seasonal Time-Series Model Based on Gene Expression Programming for Predicting Financial Distress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Hsue Cheng

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The issue of financial distress prediction plays an important and challenging research topic in the financial field. Currently, there have been many methods for predicting firm bankruptcy and financial crisis, including the artificial intelligence and the traditional statistical methods, and the past studies have shown that the prediction result of the artificial intelligence method is better than the traditional statistical method. Financial statements are quarterly reports; hence, the financial crisis of companies is seasonal time-series data, and the attribute data affecting the financial distress of companies is nonlinear and nonstationary time-series data with fluctuations. Therefore, this study employed the nonlinear attribute selection method to build a nonlinear financial distress prediction model: that is, this paper proposed a novel seasonal time-series gene expression programming model for predicting the financial distress of companies. The proposed model has several advantages including the following: (i the proposed model is different from the previous models lacking the concept of time series; (ii the proposed integrated attribute selection method can find the core attributes and reduce high dimensional data; and (iii the proposed model can generate the rules and mathematical formulas of financial distress for providing references to the investors and decision makers. The result shows that the proposed method is better than the listing classifiers under three criteria; hence, the proposed model has competitive advantages in predicting the financial distress of companies.

  12. A Seasonal Time-Series Model Based on Gene Expression Programming for Predicting Financial Distress

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The issue of financial distress prediction plays an important and challenging research topic in the financial field. Currently, there have been many methods for predicting firm bankruptcy and financial crisis, including the artificial intelligence and the traditional statistical methods, and the past studies have shown that the prediction result of the artificial intelligence method is better than the traditional statistical method. Financial statements are quarterly reports; hence, the financial crisis of companies is seasonal time-series data, and the attribute data affecting the financial distress of companies is nonlinear and nonstationary time-series data with fluctuations. Therefore, this study employed the nonlinear attribute selection method to build a nonlinear financial distress prediction model: that is, this paper proposed a novel seasonal time-series gene expression programming model for predicting the financial distress of companies. The proposed model has several advantages including the following: (i) the proposed model is different from the previous models lacking the concept of time series; (ii) the proposed integrated attribute selection method can find the core attributes and reduce high dimensional data; and (iii) the proposed model can generate the rules and mathematical formulas of financial distress for providing references to the investors and decision makers. The result shows that the proposed method is better than the listing classifiers under three criteria; hence, the proposed model has competitive advantages in predicting the financial distress of companies. PMID:29765399

  13. A Seasonal Time-Series Model Based on Gene Expression Programming for Predicting Financial Distress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Chan, Chia-Pang; Yang, Jun-He

    2018-01-01

    The issue of financial distress prediction plays an important and challenging research topic in the financial field. Currently, there have been many methods for predicting firm bankruptcy and financial crisis, including the artificial intelligence and the traditional statistical methods, and the past studies have shown that the prediction result of the artificial intelligence method is better than the traditional statistical method. Financial statements are quarterly reports; hence, the financial crisis of companies is seasonal time-series data, and the attribute data affecting the financial distress of companies is nonlinear and nonstationary time-series data with fluctuations. Therefore, this study employed the nonlinear attribute selection method to build a nonlinear financial distress prediction model: that is, this paper proposed a novel seasonal time-series gene expression programming model for predicting the financial distress of companies. The proposed model has several advantages including the following: (i) the proposed model is different from the previous models lacking the concept of time series; (ii) the proposed integrated attribute selection method can find the core attributes and reduce high dimensional data; and (iii) the proposed model can generate the rules and mathematical formulas of financial distress for providing references to the investors and decision makers. The result shows that the proposed method is better than the listing classifiers under three criteria; hence, the proposed model has competitive advantages in predicting the financial distress of companies.

  14. Nonlinear Prediction Model for Hydrologic Time Series Based on Wavelet Decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, H.; Khalil, A.; Brown, C.; Lall, U.; Ahn, H.; Moon, Y.

    2005-12-01

    Traditionally forecasting and characterizations of hydrologic systems is performed utilizing many techniques. Stochastic linear methods such as AR and ARIMA and nonlinear ones such as statistical learning theory based tools have been extensively used. The common difficulty to all methods is the determination of sufficient and necessary information and predictors for a successful prediction. Relationships between hydrologic variables are often highly nonlinear and interrelated across the temporal scale. A new hybrid approach is proposed for the simulation of hydrologic time series combining both the wavelet transform and the nonlinear model. The present model employs some merits of wavelet transform and nonlinear time series model. The Wavelet Transform is adopted to decompose a hydrologic nonlinear process into a set of mono-component signals, which are simulated by nonlinear model. The hybrid methodology is formulated in a manner to improve the accuracy of a long term forecasting. The proposed hybrid model yields much better results in terms of capturing and reproducing the time-frequency properties of the system at hand. Prediction results are promising when compared to traditional univariate time series models. An application of the plausibility of the proposed methodology is provided and the results conclude that wavelet based time series model can be utilized for simulating and forecasting of hydrologic variable reasonably well. This will ultimately serve the purpose of integrated water resources planning and management.

  15. Model-based Clustering of Categorical Time Series with Multinomial Logit Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Pamminger, Christoph; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf; Weber, Andrea

    2010-09-01

    A common problem in many areas of applied statistics is to identify groups of similar time series in a panel of time series. However, distance-based clustering methods cannot easily be extended to time series data, where an appropriate distance-measure is rather difficult to define, particularly for discrete-valued time series. Markov chain clustering, proposed by Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6], is an approach for clustering discrete-valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states. This model-based clustering method is based on finite mixtures of first-order time-homogeneous Markov chain models. In order to further explain group membership we present an extension to the approach of Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6] by formulating a probabilistic model for the latent group indicators within the Bayesian classification rule by using a multinomial logit model. The parameters are estimated for a fixed number of clusters within a Bayesian framework using an Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme representing a (full) Gibbs-type sampler which involves only draws from standard distributions. Finally, an application to a panel of Austrian wage mobility data is presented which leads to an interesting segmentation of the Austrian labour market.

  16. Method of manufacturing a capacitor on a nanowire and integrated circuit having such a capacitor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2009-01-01

    A method of manufacturing a capacitor on a wafer, and an IC comprising such a capacitor is disclosed. The method comprises forming a plurality of vertical structures (140) each having a sub-micron thickness on the wafer; and growing a metal-insulator-metal (MIM) stack (150) over the plurality of

  17. Improved time series prediction with a new method for selection of model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jade, A M; Jayaraman, V K; Kulkarni, B D

    2006-01-01

    A new method for model selection in prediction of time series is proposed. Apart from the conventional criterion of minimizing RMS error, the method also minimizes the error on the distribution of singularities, evaluated through the local Hoelder estimates and its probability density spectrum. Predictions of two simulated and one real time series have been done using kernel principal component regression (KPCR) and model parameters of KPCR have been selected employing the proposed as well as the conventional method. Results obtained demonstrate that the proposed method takes into account the sharp changes in a time series and improves the generalization capability of the KPCR model for better prediction of the unseen test data. (letter to the editor)

  18. Random Vibration Testing of Advanced Wet Tantalum Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teverovsky, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Advanced wet tantalum capacitors allow for improved performance of power supply systems along with substantial reduction of size and weight of the systems that is especially beneficial for space electronics. Due to launch-related stresses, acceptance testing of all space systems includes random vibration test (RVT). However, many types of advanced wet tantalum capacitors cannot pass consistently RVT at conditions specified in MIL-PRF-39006, which impedes their use in space projects. This requires a closer look at the existing requirements, modes and mechanisms of failures, specifics of test conditions, and acceptance criteria. In this work, different lots of advanced wet tantalum capacitors from four manufacturers have been tested at step stress random vibration conditions while their currents were monitored before, during, and after the testing. It has been shown that the robustness of the parts and their reliability are mostly due to effective self-healing processes and limited current spiking or minor scintillations caused by RVT do not increase the risk of failures during operation. A simple model for scintillations events has been used to simulate current spiking during RVT and optimize test conditions. The significance of scintillations and possible effects of gas generation have been discussed and test acceptance criteria for limited current spiking have been suggested.

  19. Nonlinear time series modeling and forecasting the seismic data of the Hindu Kush region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Muhammad Yousaf; Mittnik, Stefan

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we extended the application of linear and nonlinear time models in the field of earthquake seismology and examined the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of linear Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD), Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR), Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR), Additive Autoregressive (AAR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for seismic data of the Hindu Kush region. We also extended the previous studies by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) models and compared their forecasting accuracy with linear AR model. Unlike previous studies that typically consider the threshold model specifications by using internal threshold variable, we specified these models with external transition variables and compared their out-of-sample forecasting performance with the linear benchmark AR model. The modeling results show that time series models used in the present study are capable of capturing the dynamic structure present in the seismic data. The point forecast results indicate that the AR model generally outperforms the nonlinear models. However, in some cases, threshold models with external threshold variables specification produce more accurate forecasts, indicating that specification of threshold time series models is of crucial importance. For raw seismic data, the ACD model does not show an improved out-of-sample forecasting performance over the linear AR model. The results indicate that the AR model is the best forecasting device to model and forecast the raw seismic data of the Hindu Kush region.

  20. Cointegration and Error Correction Modelling in Time-Series Analysis: A Brief Introduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helmut Thome

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Criminological research is often based on time-series data showing some type of trend movement. Trending time-series may correlate strongly even in cases where no causal relationship exists (spurious causality. To avoid this problem researchers often apply some technique of detrending their data, such as by differencing the series. This approach, however, may bring up another problem: that of spurious non-causality. Both problems can, in principle, be avoided if the series under investigation are “difference-stationary” (if the trend movements are stochastic and “cointegrated” (if the stochastically changing trendmovements in different variables correspond to each other. The article gives a brief introduction to key instruments and interpretative tools applied in cointegration modelling.

  1. 2KJ/S 1KV, 25HZ PRR capacitor charging power supply with twin phase shifted primary windings to achieve high charge transfer rate and stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelkar, Y.; Singh, Y.P.; Thakurta, A.C.

    2013-01-01

    The capacitor charging power supply (CCPS) was developed to charge bank of 150uF energy storage capacitor (15uf , 10 nos in parallel) upto 1kV in 35 ms exhibiting a peak charging power of 2 kJ/s at a repetition rate of 25 pps. A CCPS observes a large change in load variations at the output. Initially the capacitor will act as a short circuit so the topology must be such that it should withstand short circuit condition repetitively. The High Voltage capacitor charging power supply consist of two identical full bridge resonant converters feeding to two primary windings of a transformer with rectified secondary connected to capacitor load. Topology selection is based on the fact that the series resonant converter with switching frequency f s , below 50% of the resonant frequency f r (f s ≤ 0.5 f r ) act as a current source. (author)

  2. Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Bello, Daniel Adyro; López-Quílez, Antonio; Torres-Prieto, Alexander

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model's short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients. We applied Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, and deviance information criterion statistic (DIC) for model selection. We assessed the short-term predictive performance of the selected final model, at several time points within the study period using the mean absolute percentage error. The results showed the best model including first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for calendar trend and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Besides the computational challenges, interpreting the results implies a complete analysis of the time series of dengue with respect to the parameter estimates of the meteorological effects. We found small values of the mean absolute percentage errors at one or two weeks out-of-sample predictions for most prediction points, associated with low volatility periods in the dengue counts. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the dynamic Poisson models for studying the association between time series of dengue disease and meteorological variables. The key conclusion of the study is that dynamic Poisson models account for the dynamic nature of the variables involved in the modeling of time series of dengue disease, producing useful

  3. Modeling and Forecasting of Water Demand in Isfahan Using Underlying Trend Concept and Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeghi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Accurate water demand modeling for the city is very important for forecasting and policies adoption related to water resources management. Thus, for future requirements of water estimation, forecasting and modeling, it is important to utilize models with little errors. Water has a special place among the basic human needs, because it not hampers human life. The importance of the issue of water management in the extraction and consumption, it is necessary as a basic need. Municipal water applications is include a variety of water demand for domestic, public, industrial and commercial. Predicting the impact of urban water demand in better planning of water resources in arid and semiarid regions are faced with water restrictions. Materials and Methods: One of the most important factors affecting the changing technological advances in production and demand functions, we must pay special attention to the layout pattern. Technology development is concerned not only technically, but also other aspects such as personal, non-economic factors (population, geographical and social factors can be analyzed. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural components over time allows changed invisible accidentally. Explanatory variables technology (both crystalline and amorphous in a model according to which the material is said to be better, but because of the lack of measured variables over time can not be entered in the template. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural component invisible accidentally changed over time allows. In this study, structural time series (STSM and ARMA time series models have been used to model and estimate the water demand in Isfahan. Moreover, in order to find the efficient procedure, both models have been compared to each other. The desired data in this research include water consumption in Isfahan, water price and the monthly pay

  4. A multivariate time series approach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Spencer S; Evans, R Scott; Allen, Todd L; Thomas, Alun; Haug, Peter J; Welch, Shari J; Snow, Gregory L

    2009-02-01

    The goals of this investigation were to study the temporal relationships between the demands for key resources in the emergency department (ED) and the inpatient hospital, and to develop multivariate forecasting models. Hourly data were collected from three diverse hospitals for the year 2006. Descriptive analysis and model fitting were carried out using graphical and multivariate time series methods. Multivariate models were compared to a univariate benchmark model in terms of their ability to provide out-of-sample forecasts of ED census and the demands for diagnostic resources. Descriptive analyses revealed little temporal interaction between the demand for inpatient resources and the demand for ED resources at the facilities considered. Multivariate models provided more accurate forecasts of ED census and of the demands for diagnostic resources. Our results suggest that multivariate time series models can be used to reliably forecast ED patient census; however, forecasts of the demands for diagnostic resources were not sufficiently reliable to be useful in the clinical setting.

  5. Time Series Modeling of Nano-Gold Immunochromatographic Assay via Expectation Maximization Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Nianyin; Wang, Zidong; Li, Yurong; Du, Min; Cao, Jie; Liu, Xiaohui

    2013-12-01

    In this paper, the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to the modeling of the nano-gold immunochromatographic assay (nano-GICA) via available time series of the measured signal intensities of the test and control lines. The model for the nano-GICA is developed as the stochastic dynamic model that consists of a first-order autoregressive stochastic dynamic process and a noisy measurement. By using the EM algorithm, the model parameters, the actual signal intensities of the test and control lines, as well as the noise intensity can be identified simultaneously. Three different time series data sets concerning the target concentrations are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the introduced algorithm. Several indices are also proposed to evaluate the inferred models. It is shown that the model fits the data very well.

  6. A time series modeling approach in risk appraisal of violent and sexual recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bani-Yaghoub, Majid; Fedoroff, J Paul; Curry, Susan; Amundsen, David E

    2010-10-01

    For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders.

  7. The influence of noise on nonlinear time series detection based on Volterra-Wiener-Korenberg model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lei Min [State Key Laboratory of Vibration, Shock and Noise, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030 (China)], E-mail: leimin@sjtu.edu.cn; Meng Guang [State Key Laboratory of Vibration, Shock and Noise, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030 (China)

    2008-04-15

    This paper studies the influence of noises on Volterra-Wiener-Korenberg (VWK) nonlinear test model. Our numerical results reveal that different types of noises lead to different behavior of VWK model detection. For dynamic noise, it is difficult to distinguish chaos from nonchaotic but nonlinear determinism. For time series, measure noise has no impact on chaos determinism detection. This paper also discusses various behavior of VWK model detection with surrogate data for different noises.

  8. Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Kossmeier, Stephan; Obersteiner, Michael

    2004-01-01

    This paper studies the forecasting abilities of a battery of univariate models on hourly electricity spot prices, using data from the Leipzig Power Exchange. The specifications studied include autoregressive models, autoregressive-moving average models and unobserved component models. The results show that specifications, where each hour of the day is modelled separately present uniformly better forecasting properties than specifications for the whole time-series, and that the inclusion of simple probabilistic processes for the arrival of extreme price events can lead to improvements in the forecasting abilities of univariate models for electricity spot prices. (Author)

  9. Application of the Laplace transform method for computational modelling of radioactive decay series

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Deise L.; Damasceno, Ralf M.; Barros, Ricardo C. [Univ. do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (IME/UERJ) (Brazil). Programa de Pos-graduacao em Ciencias Computacionais

    2012-03-15

    It is well known that when spent fuel is removed from the core, it is still composed of considerable amount of radioactive elements with significant half-lives. Most actinides, in particular plutonium, fall into this category, and have to be safely disposed of. One solution is to store the long-lived spent fuel as it is, by encasing and burying it deep underground in a stable geological formation. This implies estimating the transmutation of these radioactive elements with time. Therefore, we describe in this paper the application of the Laplace transform technique in matrix formulation to analytically solve initial value problems that mathematically model radioactive decay series. Given the initial amount of each type of radioactive isotopes in the decay series, the computer code generates the amount at a given time of interest, or may plot a graph of the evolution in time of the amount of each type of isotopes in the series. This computer code, that we refer to as the LTRad{sub L} code, where L is the number of types of isotopes belonging to the series, was developed using the Scilab free platform for numerical computation and can model one segment or the entire chain of any of the three radioactive series existing on Earth today. Numerical results are given to typical model problems to illustrate the computer code efficiency and accuracy. (orig.)

  10. Application of the Laplace transform method for computational modelling of radioactive decay series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Deise L.; Damasceno, Ralf M.; Barros, Ricardo C.

    2012-01-01

    It is well known that when spent fuel is removed from the core, it is still composed of considerable amount of radioactive elements with significant half-lives. Most actinides, in particular plutonium, fall into this category, and have to be safely disposed of. One solution is to store the long-lived spent fuel as it is, by encasing and burying it deep underground in a stable geological formation. This implies estimating the transmutation of these radioactive elements with time. Therefore, we describe in this paper the application of the Laplace transform technique in matrix formulation to analytically solve initial value problems that mathematically model radioactive decay series. Given the initial amount of each type of radioactive isotopes in the decay series, the computer code generates the amount at a given time of interest, or may plot a graph of the evolution in time of the amount of each type of isotopes in the series. This computer code, that we refer to as the LTRad L code, where L is the number of types of isotopes belonging to the series, was developed using the Scilab free platform for numerical computation and can model one segment or the entire chain of any of the three radioactive series existing on Earth today. Numerical results are given to typical model problems to illustrate the computer code efficiency and accuracy. (orig.)

  11. Modelos de gestión de conflictos en serie de ficción televisiva (Conflict management models in television fiction series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yolanda Navarro-Abal

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Television fiction series sometimes generate an unreal vision of life, especially among young people, becoming a mirror in which they can see themselves reflected. The series become models of values, attitudes, skills and behaviours that tend to be imitated by some viewers. The aim of this study was to analyze the conflict management behavioural styles presented by the main characters of television fiction series. Thus, we evaluated the association between these styles and the age and sex of the main characters, as well as the nationality and genre of the fiction series. 16 fiction series were assessed by selecting two characters of both sexes from each series. We adapted the Rahim Organizational Conflict Inventory-II for observing and recording the data. The results show that there is no direct association between the conflict management behavioural styles presented in the drama series and the sex of the main characters. However, associations were found between these styles and the age of the characters and the genre of the fiction series.

  12. Short-Term Bus Passenger Demand Prediction Based on Time Series Model and Interactive Multiple Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Xue

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Although bus passenger demand prediction has attracted increased attention during recent years, limited research has been conducted in the context of short-term passenger demand forecasting. This paper proposes an interactive multiple model (IMM filter algorithm-based model to predict short-term passenger demand. After aggregated in 15 min interval, passenger demand data collected from a busy bus route over four months were used to generate time series. Considering that passenger demand exhibits various characteristics in different time scales, three time series were developed, named weekly, daily, and 15 min time series. After the correlation, periodicity, and stationarity analyses, time series models were constructed. Particularly, the heteroscedasticity of time series was explored to achieve better prediction performance. Finally, IMM filter algorithm was applied to combine individual forecasting models with dynamically predicted passenger demand for next interval. Different error indices were adopted for the analyses of individual and hybrid models. The performance comparison indicates that hybrid model forecasts are superior to individual ones in accuracy. Findings of this study are of theoretical and practical significance in bus scheduling.

  13. Time-series modeling: applications to long-term finfish monitoring data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bireley, L.E.

    1985-01-01

    The growing concern and awareness that developed during the 1970's over the effects that industry had on the environment caused the electric utility industry in particular to develop monitoring programs. These programs generate long-term series of data that are not very amenable to classical normal-theory statistical analysis. The monitoring data collected from three finfish programs (impingement, trawl and seine) at the Millstone Nuclear Power Station were typical of such series and thus were used to develop methodology that used the full extent of the information in the series. The basis of the methodology was classic Box-Jenkins time-series modeling; however, the models also included deterministic components that involved flow, season and time as predictor variables. Time entered into the models as harmonic regression terms. Of the 32 models fitted to finfish catch data, 19 were found to account for more than 70% of the historical variation. The models were than used to forecast finfish catches a year in advance and comparisons were made to actual data. Usually the confidence intervals associated with the forecasts encompassed most of the observed data. The technique can provide the basis for intervention analysis in future impact assessments

  14. Time-series modeling of long-term weight self-monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helander, Elina; Pavel, Misha; Jimison, Holly; Korhonen, Ilkka

    2015-08-01

    Long-term self-monitoring of weight is beneficial for weight maintenance, especially after weight loss. Connected weight scales accumulate time series information over long term and hence enable time series analysis of the data. The analysis can reveal individual patterns, provide more sensitive detection of significant weight trends, and enable more accurate and timely prediction of weight outcomes. However, long term self-weighing data has several challenges which complicate the analysis. Especially, irregular sampling, missing data, and existence of periodic (e.g. diurnal and weekly) patterns are common. In this study, we apply time series modeling approach on daily weight time series from two individuals and describe information that can be extracted from this kind of data. We study the properties of weight time series data, missing data and its link to individuals behavior, periodic patterns and weight series segmentation. Being able to understand behavior through weight data and give relevant feedback is desired to lead to positive intervention on health behaviors.

  15. Markov Chain Modelling for Short-Term NDVI Time Series Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stepčenko Artūrs

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the NDVI time series forecasting model has been developed based on the use of discrete time, continuous state Markov chain of suitable order. The normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI is an indicator that describes the amount of chlorophyll (the green mass and shows the relative density and health of vegetation; therefore, it is an important variable for vegetation forecasting. A Markov chain is a stochastic process that consists of a state space. This stochastic process undergoes transitions from one state to another in the state space with some probabilities. A Markov chain forecast model is flexible in accommodating various forecast assumptions and structures. The present paper discusses the considerations and techniques in building a Markov chain forecast model at each step. Continuous state Markov chain model is analytically described. Finally, the application of the proposed Markov chain model is illustrated with reference to a set of NDVI time series data.

  16. Time-series models on somatic cell score improve detection of matistis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Norberg, E; Korsgaard, I R; Sloth, K H M N

    2008-01-01

    In-line detection of mastitis using frequent milk sampling was studied in 241 cows in a Danish research herd. Somatic cell scores obtained at a daily basis were analyzed using a mixture of four time-series models. Probabilities were assigned to each model for the observations to belong to a normal...... "steady-state" development, change in "level", change of "slope" or "outlier". Mastitis was indicated from the sum of probabilities for the "level" and "slope" models. Time-series models were based on the Kalman filter. Reference data was obtained from veterinary assessment of health status combined...... with bacteriological findings. At a sensitivity of 90% the corresponding specificity was 68%, which increased to 83% using a one-step back smoothing. It is concluded that mixture models based on Kalman filters are efficient in handling in-line sensor data for detection of mastitis and may be useful for similar...

  17. Fast risetime one megajoule capacitor bank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markins, D.; Baker, W.L.; Reinovsky, R.E.; Clark, J.G.

    1976-01-01

    A 100 kV, 1.1 MJ capacitor bank for plasma research experiments has been constructed for the Air Force Weapons Laboratory. The system consists of twenty, individual, low inductance capacitor modules, each utilizing a four element switch package approximately 2 meters wide. Each module contains twenty-four ''scyllac'' type 1.85 μF capacitors. A 100 kV output pulse is obtained by charging the top half of each module to +50 kV and the bottom half to -50 kV. A pressurized, low inductance multichannel switch package incorporating four separately triggered elements is designed to fit into the parallel plate transmission line system of the capacitor module. The bank is configured in a cross shape with twenty modules spaced uniformly around the perimeter of a parallel plate transmission line. The transmission line is constructed with 32 mil aluminum and insulated with 60 mils of mylar. The bank is designed to feed an easily replaceable central coaxial load. The entire system has been repeatedly fired at 100 kV with a dummy resistive load and has delivered 2.2 x 10 7 amperes of current with a risetime of 1.1 μsec. The total measured system inductance is 2.2 nH. This system represents a significant advance in the development of reliable, fast, high current capacitor banks

  18. Energy Efficient Graphene Based High Performance Capacitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Joonwon; Kwon, Oh Seok; Lee, Chang-Soo

    2017-07-10

    Graphene (GRP) is an interesting class of nano-structured electronic materials for various cutting-edge applications. To date, extensive research activities have been performed on the investigation of diverse properties of GRP. The incorporation of this elegant material can be very lucrative in terms of practical applications in energy storage/conversion systems. Among various those systems, high performance electrochemical capacitors (ECs) have become popular due to the recent need for energy efficient and portable devices. Therefore, in this article, the application of GRP for capacitors is described succinctly. In particular, a concise summary on the previous research activities regarding GRP based capacitors is also covered extensively. It was revealed that a lot of secondary materials such as polymers and metal oxides have been introduced to improve the performance. Also, diverse devices have been combined with capacitors for better use. More importantly, recent patents related to the preparation and application of GRP based capacitors are also introduced briefly. This article can provide essential information for future study. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  19. Reaching state-of-the art requirements for MIM capacitors with a single-layer anodic Al2O3 dielectric and imprinted electrodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hourdakis, Emmanouel; Nassiopoulou, Androula G.

    2017-07-01

    Metal-Insulator-Metal (MIM) capacitors with a high capacitance density and low non-linearity coefficient using a single-layer dielectric of barrier-type anodic alumina (Al2O3) and an imprinted bottom Al electrode are presented. Imprinting of the bottom electrode aimed at increasing the capacitor effective surface area by creating a three-dimensional MIM capacitor architecture. The bottom Al electrode was only partly nanopatterned so as to ensure low series resistance of the MIM capacitor. With a 3 nm thick anodic Al2O3 dielectric, the capacitor with the imprinted electrode showed a 280% increase in capacitance density compared to the flat electrode capacitor, reaching a value of 20.5 fF/μm2. On the other hand, with a 30 nm thick anodic Al2O3 layer, the capacitance density was 7.9 fF/μm2 and the non-linearity coefficient was as low as 196 ppm/V2. These values are very close to reaching all requirements of the last International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors for MIM capacitors [ITRS, http://www.itrs2.net/2013-itrs.html for ITRS Roadmap (2013)], and they are achieved by a single-layer dielectric instead of the complicated dielectric stacks of the literature. The obtained results constitute a real progress compared to previously reported results by our group for MIM capacitors using imprinted electrodes.

  20. Generation of Natural Runoff Monthly Series at Ungauged Sites Using a Regional Regressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Pumo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Many hydrologic applications require reliable estimates of runoff in river basins to face the widespread lack of data, both in time and in space. A regional method for the reconstruction of monthly runoff series is here developed and applied to Sicily (Italy. A simple modeling structure is adopted, consisting of a regression-based rainfall–runoff model with four model parameters, calibrated through a two-step procedure. Monthly runoff estimates are based on precipitation, temperature, and exploiting the autocorrelation with runoff at the previous month. Model parameters are assessed by specific regional equations as a function of easily measurable physical and climate basin descriptors. The first calibration step is aimed at the identification of a set of parameters optimizing model performances at the level of single basin. Such “optimal” sets are used at the second step, part of a regional regression analysis, to establish the regional equations for model parameters assessment as a function of basin attributes. All the gauged watersheds across the region have been analyzed, selecting 53 basins for model calibration and using the other six basins exclusively for validation. Performances, quantitatively evaluated by different statistical indexes, demonstrate relevant model ability in reproducing the observed hydrological time-series at both the monthly and coarser time resolutions. The methodology, which is easily transferable to other arid and semi-arid areas, provides a reliable tool for filling/reconstructing runoff time series at any gauged or ungauged basin of a region.

  1. Time series modeling by a regression approach based on a latent process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamroukhi, Faicel; Samé, Allou; Govaert, Gérard; Aknin, Patrice

    2009-01-01

    Time series are used in many domains including finance, engineering, economics and bioinformatics generally to represent the change of a measurement over time. Modeling techniques may then be used to give a synthetic representation of such data. A new approach for time series modeling is proposed in this paper. It consists of a regression model incorporating a discrete hidden logistic process allowing for activating smoothly or abruptly different polynomial regression models. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method performed by a dedicated Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The M step of the EM algorithm uses a multi-class Iterative Reweighted Least-Squares (IRLS) algorithm to estimate the hidden process parameters. To evaluate the proposed approach, an experimental study on simulated data and real world data was performed using two alternative approaches: a heteroskedastic piecewise regression model using a global optimization algorithm based on dynamic programming, and a Hidden Markov Regression Model whose parameters are estimated by the Baum-Welch algorithm. Finally, in the context of the remote monitoring of components of the French railway infrastructure, and more particularly the switch mechanism, the proposed approach has been applied to modeling and classifying time series representing the condition measurements acquired during switch operations.

  2. Transfer function modeling of the monthly accumulated rainfall series over the Iberian Peninsula

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mateos, Vidal L.; Garcia, Jose A.; Serrano, Antonio; De la Cruz Gallego, Maria [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad de Extremadura, Badajoz (Spain)

    2002-10-01

    In order to improve the results given by Autoregressive Moving-Average (ARMA) modeling for the monthly accumulated rainfall series taken at 19 observatories of the Iberian Peninsula, a Discrete Linear Transfer Function Noise (DLTFN) model was applied taking the local pressure series (LP), North Atlantic sea level pressure series (SLP) and North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) as input variables, and the rainfall series as the output series. In all cases, the performance of the DLTFN models, measured by the explained variance of the rainfall series, is better than the performance given by the ARMA modeling. The best performance is given by the models that take the local pressure as the input variable, followed by the sea level pressure models and the sea surface temperature models. Geographically speaking, the models fitted to those observatories located in the west of the Iberian Peninsula work better than those on the north and east of the Peninsula. Also, it was found that there is a region located between 0 N and 20 N, which shows the highest cross-correlation between SST and the peninsula rainfalls. This region moves to the west and northwest off the Peninsula when the SLP series are used. [Spanish] Con el objeto de mejorar los resultados porporcionados por los modelos Autorregresivo Media Movil (ARMA) ajustados a las precipitaciones mensuales acumuladas registradas en 19 observatorios de la Peninsula Iberica se han usado modelos de funcion de transferencia (DLTFN) en los que se han empleado como variable independiente la presion local (LP), la presion a nivel del mar (SLP) o la temperatura de agua del mar (SST) en el Atlantico Norte. En todos los casos analizados, los resultados obtenidos con los modelos DLTFN, medidos mediante la varianza explicada por el modelo, han sido mejores que los resultados proporcionados por los modelos ARMA. Los mejores resultados han sido dados por aquellos modelos que usan la presion local como variable de entrada, seguidos

  3. Power flow control for transmission networks with implicit modeling of static synchronous series compensator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamel, S.; Jurado, F.; Chen, Zhe

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents an implicit modeling of Static Synchronous Series Compensator (SSSC) in Newton–Raphson load flow method. The algorithm of load flow is based on the revised current injection formulation. The developed model of SSSC is depended on the current injection approach. In this model...... will be in the mismatches vector. Finally, this modeling solves the problem that happens when the SSSC is only connected between two areas. Numerical examples on the WSCC 9-bus, IEEE 30-bus system, and IEEE 118-bus system are used to illustrate the feasibility of the developed SSSC model and performance of the Newton–Raphson...

  4. Studies in astronomical time series analysis. I - Modeling random processes in the time domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scargle, J. D.

    1981-01-01

    Several random process models in the time domain are defined and discussed. Attention is given to the moving average model, the autoregressive model, and relationships between and combinations of these models. Consideration is then given to methods for investigating pulse structure, procedures of model construction, computational methods, and numerical experiments. A FORTRAN algorithm of time series analysis has been developed which is relatively stable numerically. Results of test cases are given to study the effect of adding noise and of different distributions for the pulse amplitudes. A preliminary analysis of the light curve of the quasar 3C 272 is considered as an example.

  5. Data on copula modeling of mixed discrete and continuous neural time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Meng; Li, Mingyao; Li, Wu; Liang, Hualou

    2016-06-01

    Copula is an important tool for modeling neural dependence. Recent work on copula has been expanded to jointly model mixed time series in neuroscience ("Hu et al., 2016, Joint Analysis of Spikes and Local Field Potentials using Copula" [1]). Here we present further data for joint analysis of spike and local field potential (LFP) with copula modeling. In particular, the details of different model orders and the influence of possible spike contamination in LFP data from the same and different electrode recordings are presented. To further facilitate the use of our copula model for the analysis of mixed data, we provide the Matlab codes, together with example data.

  6. Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on macroeconomic time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Bel (Koen); R. Paap (Richard)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractForecasts of key macroeconomic variables may lead to policy changes of governments, central banks and other economic agents. Policy changes in turn lead to structural changes in macroeconomic time series models. To describe this phenomenon we introduce a logistic smooth transition

  7. 76 FR 36390 - Airworthiness Directives; The Boeing Company Model 747SP Series Airplanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-22

    ... power control modules (PCM). This proposed AD was prompted by a report of a rudder hard-over event on a... rudder PCM manifold, which could result in a hard-over of the rudder surface leading to an increase in... of a Model 747-400 series airplane of a lower rudder hard-over event caused by a lower rudder PCM...

  8. Using the mean approach in pooling cross-section and time series data for regression modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuamah, N.N.N.N.

    1989-12-01

    The mean approach is one of the methods for pooling cross section and time series data for mathematical-statistical modelling. Though a simple approach, its results are sometimes paradoxical in nature. However, researchers still continue using it for its simplicity. Here, the paper investigates the nature and source of such unwanted phenomena. (author). 7 refs

  9. A robust interrupted time series model for analyzing complex health care intervention data

    KAUST Repository

    Cruz, Maricela

    2017-08-29

    Current health policy calls for greater use of evidence-based care delivery services to improve patient quality and safety outcomes. Care delivery is complex, with interacting and interdependent components that challenge traditional statistical analytic techniques, in particular, when modeling a time series of outcomes data that might be

  10. Dynamic factor analysis in the frequency domain: causal modeling of multivariate psychophysiological time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molenaar, P.C.M.

    1987-01-01

    Outlines a frequency domain analysis of the dynamic factor model and proposes a solution to the problem of constructing a causal filter of lagged factor loadings. The method is illustrated with applications to simulated and real multivariate time series. The latter applications involve topographic

  11. ShapeSelectForest: a new r package for modeling landsat time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary Meyer; Xiyue Liao; Gretchen Moisen; Elizabeth Freeman

    2015-01-01

    We present a new R package called ShapeSelectForest recently posted to the Comprehensive R Archival Network. The package was developed to fit nonparametric shape-restricted regression splines to time series of Landsat imagery for the purpose of modeling, mapping, and monitoring annual forest disturbance dynamics over nearly three decades. For each pixel and spectral...

  12. Harmonic regression of Landsat time series for modeling attributes from national forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry T. Wilson; Joseph F. Knight; Ronald E. McRoberts

    2018-01-01

    Imagery from the Landsat Program has been used frequently as a source of auxiliary data for modeling land cover, as well as a variety of attributes associated with tree cover. With ready access to all scenes in the archive since 2008 due to the USGS Landsat Data Policy, new approaches to deriving such auxiliary data from dense Landsat time series are required. Several...

  13. A Model for Mental Health Programming in Schools and Communities: Introduction to the Mini-Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nastasi, Bonnie K.

    1998-01-01

    Describes conceptual framework for mini-series on mental health programming. Model includes five components considered to be critical for comprehensive and effective programming. Components include: action research, ecological perspective of program development, collaborative/participatory approach, prevention to treatment via mental health…

  14. 76 FR 6584 - Airworthiness Directives; Bombardier, Inc. Model DHC-8-400 Series Airplanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-07

    .... Model DHC-8-400 Series Airplanes AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of... area on the rib at Yw-42.000 to ensure adequate electrical bonding, installing spiral wrap on certain cable assemblies where existing spiral wrap does not extend 4 inches past the tie mounts, applying a...

  15. A robust interrupted time series model for analyzing complex health care intervention data

    KAUST Repository

    Cruz, Maricela; Bender, Miriam; Ombao, Hernando

    2017-01-01

    Current health policy calls for greater use of evidence-based care delivery services to improve patient quality and safety outcomes. Care delivery is complex, with interacting and interdependent components that challenge traditional statistical analytic techniques, in particular, when modeling a time series of outcomes data that might be

  16. Evaluation of the autoregression time-series model for analysis of a noisy signal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, J.W.

    1977-01-01

    The autoregression (AR) time-series model of a continuous noisy signal was statistically evaluated to determine quantitatively the uncertainties of the model order, the model parameters, and the model's power spectral density (PSD). The result of such a statistical evaluation enables an experimenter to decide whether an AR model can adequately represent a continuous noisy signal and be consistent with the signal's frequency spectrum, and whether it can be used for on-line monitoring. Although evaluations of other types of signals have been reported in the literature, no direct reference has been found to AR model's uncertainties for continuous noisy signals; yet the evaluation is necessary to decide the usefulness of AR models of typical reactor signals (e.g., neutron detector output or thermocouple output) and the potential of AR models for on-line monitoring applications. AR and other time-series models for noisy data representation are being investigated by others since such models require fewer parameters than the traditional PSD model. For this study, the AR model was selected for its simplicity and conduciveness to uncertainty analysis, and controlled laboratory bench signals were used for continuous noisy data. (author)

  17. Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

    2017-02-01

    Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture-for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments-as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series-daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014-was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

  18. On determining the prediction limits of mathematical models for time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peluso, E.; Gelfusa, M.; Lungaroni, M.; Talebzadeh, S.; Gaudio, P.; Murari, A.; Contributors, JET

    2016-01-01

    Prediction is one of the main objectives of scientific analysis and it refers to both modelling and forecasting. The determination of the limits of predictability is an important issue of both theoretical and practical relevance. In the case of modelling time series, reached a certain level in performance in either modelling or prediction, it is often important to assess whether all the information available in the data has been exploited or whether there are still margins for improvement of the tools being developed. In this paper, an information theoretic approach is proposed to address this issue and quantify the quality of the models and/or predictions. The excellent properties of the proposed indicator have been proved with the help of a systematic series of numerical tests and a concrete example of extreme relevance for nuclear fusion.

  19. Nonlinear Fluctuation Behavior of Financial Time Series Model by Statistical Physics System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wuyang Cheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop a random financial time series model of stock market by one of statistical physics systems, the stochastic contact interacting system. Contact process is a continuous time Markov process; one interpretation of this model is as a model for the spread of an infection, where the epidemic spreading mimics the interplay of local infections and recovery of individuals. From this financial model, we study the statistical behaviors of return time series, and the corresponding behaviors of returns for Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSECI and Hang Seng Index (HSI are also comparatively studied. Further, we investigate the Zipf distribution and multifractal phenomenon of returns and price changes. Zipf analysis and MF-DFA analysis are applied to investigate the natures of fluctuations for the stock market.

  20. Analysis of Data from a Series of Events by a Geometric Process Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yeh Lam; Li-xing Zhu; Jennifer S. K. Chan; Qun Liu

    2004-01-01

    Geometric process was first introduced by Lam[10,11]. A stochastic process {Xi, i = 1, 2,…} is called a geometric process (GP) if, for some a > 0, {ai-1Xi, i = 1, 2,…} forms a renewal process. In thispaper, the GP is used to analyze the data from a series of events. A nonparametric method is introduced forthe estimation of the three parameters in the GP. The limiting distributions of the three estimators are studied.Through the analysis of some real data sets, the GP model is compared with other three homogeneous andnonhomogeneous Poisson models. It seems that on average the GP model is the best model among these fourmodels in analyzing the data from a series of events.

  1. A regional and nonstationary model for partial duration series of extreme rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    as the explanatory variables in the regional and temporal domain, respectively. Further analysis of partial duration series with nonstationary and regional thresholds shows that the mean exceedances also exhibit a significant variation in space and time for some rainfall durations, while the shape parameter is found...... of extreme rainfall. The framework is built on a partial duration series approach with a nonstationary, regional threshold value. The model is based on generalized linear regression solved by generalized estimation equations. It allows a spatial correlation between the stations in the network and accounts...... furthermore for variable observation periods at each station and in each year. Marginal regional and temporal regression models solved by generalized least squares are used to validate and discuss the results of the full spatiotemporal model. The model is applied on data from a large Danish rain gauge network...

  2. Downhole transmission system comprising a coaxial capacitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, David R [Provo, UT; Pixton, David S [Lehi, UT; Johnson, Monte L [Orem, UT; Bartholomew, David B [Springville, UT; Hall, Jr., H. Tracy; Rawle, Michael [Springville, UT

    2011-05-24

    A transmission system in a downhole component comprises a plurality of data transmission elements. A coaxial cable having an inner conductor and an outer conductor is disposed within a passage in the downhole component such that at least one capacitor is disposed in the passage and having a first terminal coupled to the inner conductor and a second terminal coupled to the outer conductor. Preferably the transmission element comprises an electrically conducting coil. Preferably, within the passage a connector is adapted to electrically connect the inner conductor of the coaxial cable and the lead wire. The coaxial capacitor may be disposed between and in electrically communication with the connector and the passage. In another embodiment a connector is adapted to electrical connect a first and a second portion of the inner conductor of the coaxial cable and a coaxial capacitor is in electrical communication with the connector and the passage.

  3. Pseudo-capacitor device for aqueous electrolytes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash, Jai; Thackeray, Michael M.; Dees, Dennis W.; Vissers, Donald R.; Myles, Kevin M.

    1998-01-01

    A pseudo-capacitor having a high energy storage capacity develops a double layer capacitance as well as a Faradaic or battery-like redox reaction, also referred to as pseudo-capacitance. The Faradaic reaction gives rise to a capacitance much greater than that of the typical ruthenate oxide ultracapacitor which develops only charge separation-based double layer capacitance. The capacitor employs a lead and/or bismuth/ruthenate and/or iridium system having the formula A.sub.2 ›B.sub.2-x Pb.sub.x !O.sub.7-y, where A=Pb, Bi, and B=Ru, Ir, and Ocapacitor. The amount of expensive ruthenate and iridium can be substantially reduced in the pseudo-capacitor by increasing the lead content while improving energy storage capacity.

  4. Negative capacitance in a ferroelectric capacitor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Asif Islam; Chatterjee, Korok; Wang, Brian; Drapcho, Steven; You, Long; Serrao, Claudy; Bakaul, Saidur Rahman; Ramesh, Ramamoorthy; Salahuddin, Sayeef

    2015-02-01

    The Boltzmann distribution of electrons poses a fundamental barrier to lowering energy dissipation in conventional electronics, often termed as Boltzmann Tyranny. Negative capacitance in ferroelectric materials, which stems from the stored energy of a phase transition, could provide a solution, but a direct measurement of negative capacitance has so far been elusive. Here, we report the observation of negative capacitance in a thin, epitaxial ferroelectric film. When a voltage pulse is applied, the voltage across the ferroelectric capacitor is found to be decreasing with time--in exactly the opposite direction to which voltage for a regular capacitor should change. Analysis of this 'inductance'-like behaviour from a capacitor presents an unprecedented insight into the intrinsic energy profile of the ferroelectric material and could pave the way for completely new applications.

  5. Improving the mechanical stability of a standard capacitor

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Moodley, SS

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available temperature coefficients of capacitance, they were susceptible to mechanical shock. During 1999, a project was initiated to improve the mechanical stability of the capacitors after two capacitors were damaged during transit, while being transported as separate...

  6. Li-Ion, Ultra-capacitor Based Hybrid Energy Module

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Daboussi, Zaher; Paryani, Anil; Khalil, Gus; Catherino, Henry; Gargies, Sonya

    2007-01-01

    .... To determine the optimum utilization of ultra-capacitors in applications where high power density and high energy density are required, an optimized Li-Ion/Ultra-capacitor Hybrid Energy Module (HEM...

  7. Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldroyd Giles ED

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. Results In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Conclusions Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and

  8. Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granqvist, Emma; Oldroyd, Giles E D; Morris, Richard J

    2011-06-24

    A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time

  9. Vector Control Using Series Iron Loss Model of Induction, Motors and Power Loss Minimization

    OpenAIRE

    Kheldoun Aissa; Khodja Djalal Eddine

    2009-01-01

    The iron loss is a source of detuning in vector controlled induction motor drives if the classical rotor vector controller is used for decoupling. In fact, the field orientation will not be satisfied and the output torque will not truck the reference torque mostly used by Loss Model Controllers (LMCs). In addition, this component of loss, among others, may be excessive if the vector controlled induction motor is driving light loads. In this paper, the series iron loss model ...

  10. Hydrological time series modeling: A comparison between adaptive neuro-fuzzy, neural network and autoregressive techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohani, A. K.; Kumar, Rakesh; Singh, R. D.

    2012-06-01

    SummaryTime series modeling is necessary for the planning and management of reservoirs. More recently, the soft computing techniques have been used in hydrological modeling and forecasting. In this study, the potential of artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy system in monthly reservoir inflow forecasting are examined by developing and comparing monthly reservoir inflow prediction models, based on autoregressive (AR), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). To take care the effect of monthly periodicity in the flow data, cyclic terms are also included in the ANN and ANFIS models. Working with time series flow data of the Sutlej River at Bhakra Dam, India, several ANN and adaptive neuro-fuzzy models are trained with different input vectors. To evaluate the performance of the selected ANN and adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models, comparison is made with the autoregressive (AR) models. The ANFIS model trained with the input data vector including previous inflows and cyclic terms of monthly periodicity has shown a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy in comparison with the ANFIS models trained with the input vectors considering only previous inflows. In all cases ANFIS gives more accurate forecast than the AR and ANN models. The proposed ANFIS model coupled with the cyclic terms is shown to provide better representation of the monthly inflow forecasting for planning and operation of reservoir.

  11. Multi-Step Time Series Forecasting with an Ensemble of Varied Length Mixture Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Yicun; Yin, Hujun

    2018-05-01

    Many real-world problems require modeling and forecasting of time series, such as weather temperature, electricity demand, stock prices and foreign exchange (FX) rates. Often, the tasks involve predicting over a long-term period, e.g. several weeks or months. Most existing time series models are inheritably for one-step prediction, that is, predicting one time point ahead. Multi-step or long-term prediction is difficult and challenging due to the lack of information and uncertainty or error accumulation. The main existing approaches, iterative and independent, either use one-step model recursively or treat the multi-step task as an independent model. They generally perform poorly in practical applications. In this paper, as an extension of the self-organizing mixture autoregressive (AR) model, the varied length mixture (VLM) models are proposed to model and forecast time series over multi-steps. The key idea is to preserve the dependencies between the time points within the prediction horizon. Training data are segmented to various lengths corresponding to various forecasting horizons, and the VLM models are trained in a self-organizing fashion on these segments to capture these dependencies in its component AR models of various predicting horizons. The VLM models form a probabilistic mixture of these varied length models. A combination of short and long VLM models and an ensemble of them are proposed to further enhance the prediction performance. The effectiveness of the proposed methods and their marked improvements over the existing methods are demonstrated through a number of experiments on synthetic data, real-world FX rates and weather temperatures.

  12. PSO-MISMO modeling strategy for multistep-ahead time series prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Yukun; Xiong, Tao; Hu, Zhongyi

    2014-05-01

    Multistep-ahead time series prediction is one of the most challenging research topics in the field of time series modeling and prediction, and is continually under research. Recently, the multiple-input several multiple-outputs (MISMO) modeling strategy has been proposed as a promising alternative for multistep-ahead time series prediction, exhibiting advantages compared with the two currently dominating strategies, the iterated and the direct strategies. Built on the established MISMO strategy, this paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based MISMO modeling strategy, which is capable of determining the number of sub-models in a self-adaptive mode, with varying prediction horizons. Rather than deriving crisp divides with equal-size s prediction horizons from the established MISMO, the proposed PSO-MISMO strategy, implemented with neural networks, employs a heuristic to create flexible divides with varying sizes of prediction horizons and to generate corresponding sub-models, providing considerable flexibility in model construction, which has been validated with simulated and real datasets.

  13. Liquid Crystals of Lithium Dodecylbenzenesulfonate for Electric Double Layer Capacitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzmin, Andrey Vasil’evich; Yurtov, Evgeny V.

    2016-01-01

    Ionic lyotropic liquid crystals based on lithium dodecylbenzenesulfonate were used as electrolytes for electric double layer capacitors with carbon fibrous electrodes. The capacitors were tasted by cyclic voltammetry, galvanostatic charge and discharge, and impedance spectroscopy. The highest specific capacitance was achieved for electrical double layer capacitor equipped with ionic lyotropic liquid crystal of lithium dodecylbenzenesulfonate 35 wt% in water. The specific capacitance of capacitor was calculated from galvanostatic discharge curves – 15 F/g of carbon fibrous material

  14. Method of making dielectric capacitors with increased dielectric breakdown strength

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Beihai; Balachandran, Uthamalingam; Liu, Shanshan

    2017-05-09

    The invention is directed to a process for making a dielectric ceramic film capacitor and the ceramic dielectric laminated capacitor formed therefrom, the dielectric ceramic film capacitors having increased dielectric breakdown strength. The invention increases breakdown strength by embedding a conductive oxide layer between electrode layers within the dielectric layer of the capacitors. The conductive oxide layer redistributes and dissipates charge, thus mitigating charge concentration and micro fractures formed within the dielectric by electric fields.

  15. Design and Characterization of Vertical Mesh Capacitors in Standard CMOS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Kåre Tais

    2001-01-01

    This paper shows how good RF capacitors can be made in a standard digital CMOS process. The capacitors which are also well suited for binary weighted switched capacitor banks show very good RF performance: Q-values of 57 at 4.0 GHz, a density of 0.27 fF/μ2, 2.2 μm wide shielded unit capacitors, 6...

  16. Performance of ALVAND 1. capacitor bank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torabi-fard, A.; Farahani, M.; Ebrani, M.; Rostami, R.; Daghighian, F.

    1978-01-01

    This report describes the specifications of the capacitor bank for the ALVAND I, Linear theta pinch experiment and the results of some tests performed on it. A one-meter-wide module includes the basic components such as capacitors, Spark gaps, and crowbar triggers. Complementary parts such as ground system, pressurised dry air system and safety system were added. With a rise-time of about three micro-seconds and a total current of six million amperes it is possible to produce ion temperature in excess of one kev for a few microseconds. Different probes were used to measure the magnetic field and the total current

  17. Printed Barium Strontium Titanate capacitors on silicon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sette, Daniele [Univ. Grenoble Alpes, F-38000 Grenoble (France); CEA, LETI, MINATEC Campus, F-38054 Grenoble (France); Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology LIST, Materials Research and Technology Department, L-4422 Belvaux (Luxembourg); Kovacova, Veronika [Univ. Grenoble Alpes, F-38000 Grenoble (France); CEA, LETI, MINATEC Campus, F-38054 Grenoble (France); Defay, Emmanuel, E-mail: emmanuel.defay@list.lu [Univ. Grenoble Alpes, F-38000 Grenoble (France); CEA, LETI, MINATEC Campus, F-38054 Grenoble (France); Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology LIST, Materials Research and Technology Department, L-4422 Belvaux (Luxembourg)

    2015-08-31

    In this paper, we show that Barium Strontium Titanate (BST) films can be prepared by inkjet printing of sol–gel precursors on platinized silicon substrate. Moreover, a functional variable capacitor working in the GHz range has been made without any lithography or etching steps. Finally, this technology requires 40 times less precursors than the standard sol–gel spin-coating technique. - Highlights: • Inkjet printing of Barium Strontium Titanate films • Deposition on silicon substrate • Inkjet printed silver top electrode • First ever BST films thinner than 1 μm RF functional variable capacitor that has required no lithography.

  18. Graphene spin capacitor for magnetic field sensing

    OpenAIRE

    Semenov, Y. G.; Zavada, J. M.; Kim, K. W.

    2010-01-01

    An analysis of a novel magnetic field sensor based on a graphene spin capacitor is presented. The proposed device consists of graphene nanoribbons on top of an insulator material connected to a ferromagnetic source/drain. The time evolution of spin polarized electrons injected into the capacitor can be used for an accurate determination at room temperature of external magnetic fields. Assuming a spin relaxation time of 100 ns, magnetic fields on the order of $\\sim 10$ mOe may be detected at r...

  19. Antenna Miniaturization with MEMS Tunable Capacitors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barrio, Samantha Caporal Del; Morris, Art; Pedersen, Gert Frølund

    2014-01-01

    In today’s mobile device market, there is a strong need for efficient antenna miniaturization. Tunable antennas are a very promising way to reduce antenna volume while enlarging its operating bandwidth. MEMS tunable capacitors are state-ofthe- art in terms of insertion loss and their characterist......In today’s mobile device market, there is a strong need for efficient antenna miniaturization. Tunable antennas are a very promising way to reduce antenna volume while enlarging its operating bandwidth. MEMS tunable capacitors are state-ofthe- art in terms of insertion loss...

  20. Low-Voltage Switched-Capacitor Circuits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidari, E.; Keskin, M.; Maloberti, F.

    1999-01-01

    Switched-capacitor stages are described which can function with very low (typically 1 V) supply voltages, without using voltage boosting or switched op-amps. Simulations indicate that high performance may be achieved using these circuits in filter or data converter applications.......Switched-capacitor stages are described which can function with very low (typically 1 V) supply voltages, without using voltage boosting or switched op-amps. Simulations indicate that high performance may be achieved using these circuits in filter or data converter applications....

  1. Clocking Scheme for Switched-Capacitor Circuits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steensgaard-Madsen, Jesper

    1998-01-01

    A novel clocking scheme for switched-capacitor (SC) circuits is presented. It can enhance the understanding of SC circuits and the errors caused by MOSFET (MOS) switches. Charge errors, and techniques to make SC circuits less sensitive to them are discussed.......A novel clocking scheme for switched-capacitor (SC) circuits is presented. It can enhance the understanding of SC circuits and the errors caused by MOSFET (MOS) switches. Charge errors, and techniques to make SC circuits less sensitive to them are discussed....

  2. Asymptotics for the conditional-sum-of-squares estimator in multivariate fractional time series models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørregård Nielsen, Morten

    This paper proves consistency and asymptotic normality for the conditional-sum-of-squares estimator, which is equivalent to the conditional maximum likelihood estimator, in multivariate fractional time series models. The model is parametric and quite general, and, in particular, encompasses...... the multivariate non-cointegrated fractional ARIMA model. The novelty of the consistency result, in particular, is that it applies to a multivariate model and to an arbitrarily large set of admissible parameter values, for which the objective function does not converge uniformly in probablity, thus making...

  3. A woven 2D touchpad sensor and a 1D slide sensor using soft capacitor fibers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorgutsa, Stephan; Gu, Jian Feng; Skorobogatiy, Maksim

    2012-01-01

    Recently reported soft conductive-polymer-based capacitor fibers are used to build a fully woven 2D touchpad sensor and a 1D slide sensor. An individual capacitor fiber features a swiss-roll like structure having two dielectric and two conductive polymer films rolled together in a classic multilayer capacitor configuration. The soft fibers of sub-1 mm outer diameter are fabricated using a fiber drawing procedure from a macroscopic polymeric preform. An individual capacitor fiber is then demonstrated to act as a distributed sensor that allows the touch position to be determined by measuring the fiber’s AC response. In other words, a single fiber acts as a 1D slide sensor. Furthermore, we develop an electrical ladder network model to predict the distributed sensor properties of an individual fiber and show that this model describes the experimental measurements very well. Finally, a two-dimensional touchpad sensor is presented. The sensor is built by weaving a one-dimensional array of capacitor fibers in parallel to each other. The performance of the touchpad sensor is then characterized. (paper)

  4. Iodine encapsulation in CNTs and its application for electrochemical capacitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taniguchi, Y.; Ishii, Y.; Al-zubaidi, A.; Kawasaki, S.; Rashid, M.; Syakirin, A.

    2016-01-01

    We report the experimental results for new type electrochemical capacitor using iodine redox reaction in single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs). It was found that the energy density of the present redox capacitor using SWCNTs is almost three times larger than that of the normal electric double layer capacitor.

  5. Application of PFN capacitors in high power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parker, R.D.

    1979-01-01

    The application of lightweight reliable capacitors in a mobile energy store is discussed. The relationship of system design parameters to capacitor size and life is displayed. Electric fields and weights of a 21 J/lb and a 77 J/lb pulse discharge capacitor design are given. Estimates of future near-tern development are made

  6. Dynamics of a Liquid Dielectric Attracted by a Cylindrical Capacitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nardi, Rafael; Lemos, Nivaldo A.

    2007-01-01

    The dynamics of a liquid dielectric attracted by a vertical cylindrical capacitor are studied. Contrary to what might be expected from the standard calculation of the force exerted by the capacitor, the motion of the dielectric is different depending on whether the charge or the voltage of the capacitor is held constant. The problem turns out to…

  7. Iodine encapsulation in CNTs and its application for electrochemical capacitor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taniguchi, Y.; Ishii, Y.; Al-zubaidi, A.; Kawasaki, S., E-mail: kawasaki.shinji@nitech.ac.jp [Nagoya Institute of Technology, Gokiso, Showa, Nagoya, Aichi (Japan); Rashid, M.; Syakirin, A. [Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2016-07-06

    We report the experimental results for new type electrochemical capacitor using iodine redox reaction in single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs). It was found that the energy density of the present redox capacitor using SWCNTs is almost three times larger than that of the normal electric double layer capacitor.

  8. Time series models of environmental exposures: Good predictions or good understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Adrian G; Stephen, Dimity; Huang, Cunrui; Wolkewitz, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Time series data are popular in environmental epidemiology as they make use of the natural experiment of how changes in exposure over time might impact on disease. Many published time series papers have used parameter-heavy models that fully explained the second order patterns in disease to give residuals that have no short-term autocorrelation or seasonality. This is often achieved by including predictors of past disease counts (autoregression) or seasonal splines with many degrees of freedom. These approaches give great residuals, but add little to our understanding of cause and effect. We argue that modelling approaches should rely more on good epidemiology and less on statistical tests. This includes thinking about causal pathways, making potential confounders explicit, fitting a limited number of models, and not over-fitting at the cost of under-estimating the true association between exposure and disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Statistical models and time series forecasting of sulfur dioxide: a case study Tehran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, S; Hosseinibalam, F; Alizadeh, R

    2009-08-01

    This study performed a time-series analysis, frequency distribution and prediction of SO(2) levels for five stations (Pardisan, Vila, Azadi, Gholhak and Bahman) in Tehran for the period of 2000-2005. Most sites show a quite similar characteristic with highest pollution in autumn-winter time and least pollution in spring-summer. The frequency distributions show higher peaks at two residential sites. The potential for SO(2) problems is high because of high emissions and the close geographical proximity of the major industrial and urban centers. The ACF and PACF are nonzero for several lags, indicating a mixed (ARMA) model, then at Bahman station an ARMA model was used for forecasting SO(2). The partial autocorrelations become close to 0 after about 5 lags while the autocorrelations remain strong through all the lags shown. The results proved that ARMA (2,2) model can provides reliable, satisfactory predictions for time series.

  10. Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yuning

    2015-01-01

    Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

  11. Predictive time-series modeling using artificial neural networks for Linac beam symmetry: an empirical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qiongge; Chan, Maria F

    2017-01-01

    Over half of cancer patients receive radiotherapy (RT) as partial or full cancer treatment. Daily quality assurance (QA) of RT in cancer treatment closely monitors the performance of the medical linear accelerator (Linac) and is critical for continuous improvement of patient safety and quality of care. Cumulative longitudinal QA measurements are valuable for understanding the behavior of the Linac and allow physicists to identify trends in the output and take preventive actions. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time-series prediction modeling techniques were both applied to 5-year daily Linac QA data. Verification tests and other evaluations were then performed for all models. Preliminary results showed that ANN time-series predictive modeling has more advantages over ARMA techniques for accurate and effective applicability in the dosimetry and QA field. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

  12. Intuitionistic Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya’nan Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Fuzzy sets theory cannot describe the data comprehensively, which has greatly limited the objectivity of fuzzy time series in uncertain data forecasting. In this regard, an intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting model is built. In the new model, a fuzzy clustering algorithm is used to divide the universe of discourse into unequal intervals, and a more objective technique for ascertaining the membership function and nonmembership function of the intuitionistic fuzzy set is proposed. On these bases, forecast rules based on intuitionistic fuzzy approximate reasoning are established. At last, contrast experiments on the enrollments of the University of Alabama and the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index are carried out. The results show that the new model has a clear advantage of improving the forecast accuracy.

  13. The Gaussian Graphical Model in Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epskamp, Sacha; Waldorp, Lourens J; Mõttus, René; Borsboom, Denny

    2018-04-16

    We discuss the Gaussian graphical model (GGM; an undirected network of partial correlation coefficients) and detail its utility as an exploratory data analysis tool. The GGM shows which variables predict one-another, allows for sparse modeling of covariance structures, and may highlight potential causal relationships between observed variables. We describe the utility in three kinds of psychological data sets: data sets in which consecutive cases are assumed independent (e.g., cross-sectional data), temporally ordered data sets (e.g., n = 1 time series), and a mixture of the 2 (e.g., n > 1 time series). In time-series analysis, the GGM can be used to model the residual structure of a vector-autoregression analysis (VAR), also termed graphical VAR. Two network models can then be obtained: a temporal network and a contemporaneous network. When analyzing data from multiple subjects, a GGM can also be formed on the covariance structure of stationary means-the between-subjects network. We discuss the interpretation of these models and propose estimation methods to obtain these networks, which we implement in the R packages graphicalVAR and mlVAR. The methods are showcased in two empirical examples, and simulation studies on these methods are included in the supplementary materials.

  14. Electric Double-Layer Capacitor Fabricated with Addition of Carbon Nanotube to Polarizable Electrode

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshiyuki, S.

    2012-01-01

    Electrical double-layer capacitor (EDLC) was fabricated with addition of carbon nano tube (CNT) to polarization electrodes as a conducting material. The CNT addition reduced the series resistance of the EDLC by one-twentieth, while the capacitance was not increased by the CNT addition. The low series resistance leaded to the high electrical energy stored in the EDLC. In this paper, the dependence of the series resistance, the specific capacitance, the energy, and the energy efficiencies on the CNT addition is discussed

  15. Electric Double-Layer Capacitor Fabricated with Addition of Carbon Nanotube to Polarizable Electrode

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshiyuki Show

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Electrical double-layer capacitor (EDLC was fabricated with addition of carbon nanotube (CNT to polarization electrodes as a conducting material. The CNT addition reduced the series resistance of the EDLC by one-twentieth, while the capacitance was not increased by the CNT addition. The low series resistance leaded to the high electrical energy stored in the EDLC. In this paper, the dependence of the series resistance, the specific capacitance, the energy, and the energy efficiencies on the CNT addition is discussed.

  16. Extended causal modeling to assess Partial Directed Coherence in multiple time series with significant instantaneous interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faes, Luca; Nollo, Giandomenico

    2010-11-01

    The Partial Directed Coherence (PDC) and its generalized formulation (gPDC) are popular tools for investigating, in the frequency domain, the concept of Granger causality among multivariate (MV) time series. PDC and gPDC are formalized in terms of the coefficients of an MV autoregressive (MVAR) model which describes only the lagged effects among the time series and forsakes instantaneous effects. However, instantaneous effects are known to affect linear parametric modeling, and are likely to occur in experimental time series. In this study, we investigate the impact on the assessment of frequency domain causality of excluding instantaneous effects from the model underlying PDC evaluation. Moreover, we propose the utilization of an extended MVAR model including both instantaneous and lagged effects. This model is used to assess PDC either in accordance with the definition of Granger causality when considering only lagged effects (iPDC), or with an extended form of causality, when we consider both instantaneous and lagged effects (ePDC). The approach is first evaluated on three theoretical examples of MVAR processes, which show that the presence of instantaneous correlations may produce misleading profiles of PDC and gPDC, while ePDC and iPDC derived from the extended model provide here a correct interpretation of extended and lagged causality. It is then applied to representative examples of cardiorespiratory and EEG MV time series. They suggest that ePDC and iPDC are better interpretable than PDC and gPDC in terms of the known cardiovascular and neural physiologies.

  17. A Bayesian Approach for Summarizing and Modeling Time-Series Exposure Data with Left Censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houseman, E Andres; Virji, M Abbas

    2017-08-01

    Direct reading instruments are valuable tools for measuring exposure as they provide real-time measurements for rapid decision making. However, their use is limited to general survey applications in part due to issues related to their performance. Moreover, statistical analysis of real-time data is complicated by autocorrelation among successive measurements, non-stationary time series, and the presence of left-censoring due to limit-of-detection (LOD). A Bayesian framework is proposed that accounts for non-stationary autocorrelation and LOD issues in exposure time-series data in order to model workplace factors that affect exposure and estimate summary statistics for tasks or other covariates of interest. A spline-based approach is used to model non-stationary autocorrelation with relatively few assumptions about autocorrelation structure. Left-censoring is addressed by integrating over the left tail of the distribution. The model is fit using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo within a Bayesian paradigm. The method can flexibly account for hierarchical relationships, random effects and fixed effects of covariates. The method is implemented using the rjags package in R, and is illustrated by applying it to real-time exposure data. Estimates for task means and covariates from the Bayesian model are compared to those from conventional frequentist models including linear regression, mixed-effects, and time-series models with different autocorrelation structures. Simulations studies are also conducted to evaluate method performance. Simulation studies with percent of measurements below the LOD ranging from 0 to 50% showed lowest root mean squared errors for task means and the least biased standard deviations from the Bayesian model compared to the frequentist models across all levels of LOD. In the application, task means from the Bayesian model were similar to means from the frequentist models, while the standard deviations were different. Parameter estimates for covariates

  18. Regression and regression analysis time series prediction modeling on climate data of quetta, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafri, Y.Z.; Kamal, L.

    2007-01-01

    Various statistical techniques was used on five-year data from 1998-2002 of average humidity, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The relationships to regression analysis time series (RATS) were developed for determining the overall trend of these climate parameters on the basis of which forecast models can be corrected and modified. We computed the coefficient of determination as a measure of goodness of fit, to our polynomial regression analysis time series (PRATS). The correlation to multiple linear regression (MLR) and multiple linear regression analysis time series (MLRATS) were also developed for deciphering the interdependence of weather parameters. Spearman's rand correlation and Goldfeld-Quandt test were used to check the uniformity or non-uniformity of variances in our fit to polynomial regression (PR). The Breusch-Pagan test was applied to MLR and MLRATS, respectively which yielded homoscedasticity. We also employed Bartlett's test for homogeneity of variances on a five-year data of rainfall and humidity, respectively which showed that the variances in rainfall data were not homogenous while in case of humidity, were homogenous. Our results on regression and regression analysis time series show the best fit to prediction modeling on climatic data of Quetta, Pakistan. (author)

  19. Statistical tools for analysis and modeling of cosmic populations and astronomical time series: CUDAHM and TSE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Scargle, Jeffrey D.

    2018-01-01

    This presentation provides an overview of open-source software packages addressing two challenging classes of astrostatistics problems. (1) CUDAHM is a C++ framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of cosmic populations, leveraging graphics processing units (GPUs) to enable applying this computationally challenging paradigm to large datasets. CUDAHM is motivated by measurement error problems in astronomy, where density estimation and linear and nonlinear regression must be addressed for populations of thousands to millions of objects whose features are measured with possibly complex uncertainties, potentially including selection effects. An example calculation demonstrates accurate GPU-accelerated luminosity function estimation for simulated populations of $10^6$ objects in about two hours using a single NVIDIA Tesla K40c GPU. (2) Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a collection of software in Python and MATLAB for exploratory analysis and statistical modeling of astronomical time series. It comprises a library of stand-alone functions and classes, as well as an application environment for interactive exploration of times series data. The presentation will summarize key capabilities of this emerging project, including new algorithms for analysis of irregularly-sampled time series.

  20. The quantum to classical crossover for a weak link capacitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spiller, T.P.; Clark, T.D.; Prance, H.; Prance, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    We consider a model weak link, an ultra-small capacitor subject to tunnelling, to ohmic dissipation and fed with an external displacement current. The framework we employ is the new approach of quantum state diffusion, which treats individual open quantum systems as well as being able to generate the conventional ensemble averages. We show how evidence, for archetypal quantum behaviour (coherent oscillations) and archetypal classical behaviour (chaos) arises, for weak links whose parameters are related by a rather modest scaling. Interestingly, the quantum behaviour can arise for a weak link with intrinsic parameter values such that it could exhibit chaos, if it were a purely classical device

  1. High speed capacitor-inverter based carbon nanotube full adder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navi, K; Rashtian, M; Khatir, A; Keshavarzian, P; Hashemipour, O

    2010-03-18

    Carbon Nanotube filed-effect transistor (CNFET) is one of the promising alternatives to the MOS transistors. The geometry-dependent threshold voltage is one of the CNFET characteristics, which is used in the proposed Full Adder cell. In this paper, we present a high speed Full Adder cell using CNFETs based on majority-not (Minority) function. Presented design uses eight transistors and eight capacitors. Simulation results show significant improvement in terms of delay and power-delay product in comparison to contemporary CNFET Adder Cells. Simulations were carried out using HSPICE based on CNFET model with 0.6 V VDD.

  2. Comparing and Contrasting Traditional Membrane Bioreactor Models with Novel Ones Based on Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parneet Paul

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The computer modelling and simulation of wastewater treatment plant and their specific technologies, such as membrane bioreactors (MBRs, are becoming increasingly useful to consultant engineers when designing, upgrading, retrofitting, operating and controlling these plant. This research uses traditional phenomenological mechanistic models based on MBR filtration and biochemical processes to measure the effectiveness of alternative and novel time series models based upon input–output system identification methods. Both model types are calibrated and validated using similar plant layouts and data sets derived for this purpose. Results prove that although both approaches have their advantages, they also have specific disadvantages as well. In conclusion, the MBR plant designer and/or operator who wishes to use good quality, calibrated models to gain a better understanding of their process, should carefully consider which model type is selected based upon on what their initial modelling objectives are. Each situation usually proves unique.

  3. Time series modeling for analysis and control advanced autopilot and monitoring systems

    CERN Document Server

    Ohtsu, Kohei; Kitagawa, Genshiro

    2015-01-01

    This book presents multivariate time series methods for the analysis and optimal control of feedback systems. Although ships’ autopilot systems are considered through the entire book, the methods set forth in this book can be applied to many other complicated, large, or noisy feedback control systems for which it is difficult to derive a model of the entire system based on theory in that subject area. The basic models used in this method are the multivariate autoregressive model with exogenous variables (ARX) model and the radial bases function net-type coefficients ARX model. The noise contribution analysis can then be performed through the estimated autoregressive (AR) model and various types of autopilot systems can be designed through the state–space representation of the models. The marine autopilot systems addressed in this book include optimal controllers for course-keeping motion, rolling reduction controllers with rudder motion, engine governor controllers, noise adaptive autopilots, route-tracki...

  4. Statistical properties of fluctuations of time series representing appearances of words in nationwide blog data and their applications: An example of modeling fluctuation scalings of nonstationary time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Hayafumi; Sano, Yukie; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

    2016-11-01

    To elucidate the nontrivial empirical statistical properties of fluctuations of a typical nonsteady time series representing the appearance of words in blogs, we investigated approximately 3×10^{9} Japanese blog articles over a period of six years and analyze some corresponding mathematical models. First, we introduce a solvable nonsteady extension of the random diffusion model, which can be deduced by modeling the behavior of heterogeneous random bloggers. Next, we deduce theoretical expressions for both the temporal and ensemble fluctuation scalings of this model, and demonstrate that these expressions can reproduce all empirical scalings over eight orders of magnitude. Furthermore, we show that the model can reproduce other statistical properties of time series representing the appearance of words in blogs, such as functional forms of the probability density and correlations in the total number of blogs. As an application, we quantify the abnormality of special nationwide events by measuring the fluctuation scalings of 1771 basic adjectives.

  5. Evaluating an Automated Number Series Item Generator Using Linear Logistic Test Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bao Sheng Loe

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the item properties of a newly developed Automatic Number Series Item Generator (ANSIG. The foundation of the ANSIG is based on five hypothesised cognitive operators. Thirteen item models were developed using the numGen R package and eleven were evaluated in this study. The 16-item ICAR (International Cognitive Ability Resource1 short form ability test was used to evaluate construct validity. The Rasch Model and two Linear Logistic Test Model(s (LLTM were employed to estimate and predict the item parameters. Results indicate that a single factor determines the performance on tests composed of items generated by the ANSIG. Under the LLTM approach, all the cognitive operators were significant predictors of item difficulty. Moderate to high correlations were evident between the number series items and the ICAR test scores, with high correlation found for the ICAR Letter-Numeric-Series type items, suggesting adequate nomothetic span. Extended cognitive research is, nevertheless, essential for the automatic generation of an item pool with predictable psychometric properties.

  6. A time series model: First-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1))

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simarmata, D. M.; Novkaniza, F.; Widyaningsih, Y.

    2017-07-01

    Nonnegative integer-valued time series arises in many applications. A time series model: first-order Integer-valued AutoRegressive (INAR(1)) is constructed by binomial thinning operator to model nonnegative integer-valued time series. INAR (1) depends on one period from the process before. The parameter of the model can be estimated by Conditional Least Squares (CLS). Specification of INAR(1) is following the specification of (AR(1)). Forecasting in INAR(1) uses median or Bayesian forecasting methodology. Median forecasting methodology obtains integer s, which is cumulative density function (CDF) until s, is more than or equal to 0.5. Bayesian forecasting methodology forecasts h-step-ahead of generating the parameter of the model and parameter of innovation term using Adaptive Rejection Metropolis Sampling within Gibbs sampling (ARMS), then finding the least integer s, where CDF until s is more than or equal to u . u is a value taken from the Uniform(0,1) distribution. INAR(1) is applied on pneumonia case in Penjaringan, Jakarta Utara, January 2008 until April 2016 monthly.

  7. Model for the respiratory modulation of the heart beat-to-beat time interval series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capurro, Alberto; Diambra, Luis; Malta, C. P.

    2005-09-01

    In this study we present a model for the respiratory modulation of the heart beat-to-beat interval series. The model consists of a set of differential equations used to simulate the membrane potential of a single rabbit sinoatrial node cell, excited with a periodic input signal with added correlated noise. This signal, which simulates the input from the autonomous nervous system to the sinoatrial node, was included in the pacemaker equations as a modulation of the iNaK current pump and the potassium current iK. We focus at modeling the heart beat-to-beat time interval series from normal subjects during meditation of the Kundalini Yoga and Chi techniques. The analysis of the experimental data indicates that while the embedding of pre-meditation and control cases have a roughly circular shape, it acquires a polygonal shape during meditation, triangular for the Kundalini Yoga data and quadrangular in the case of Chi data. The model was used to assess the waveshape of the respiratory signals needed to reproduce the trajectory of the experimental data in the phase space. The embedding of the Chi data could be reproduced using a periodic signal obtained by smoothing a square wave. In the case of Kundalini Yoga data, the embedding was reproduced with a periodic signal obtained by smoothing a triangular wave having a rising branch of longer duration than the decreasing branch. Our study provides an estimation of the respiratory signal using only the heart beat-to-beat time interval series.

  8. Extracting Knowledge From Time Series An Introduction to Nonlinear Empirical Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Bezruchko, Boris P

    2010-01-01

    This book addresses the fundamental question of how to construct mathematical models for the evolution of dynamical systems from experimentally-obtained time series. It places emphasis on chaotic signals and nonlinear modeling and discusses different approaches to the forecast of future system evolution. In particular, it teaches readers how to construct difference and differential model equations depending on the amount of a priori information that is available on the system in addition to the experimental data sets. This book will benefit graduate students and researchers from all natural sciences who seek a self-contained and thorough introduction to this subject.

  9. The string prediction models as an invariants of time series in forex market

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Pincak; Marian Repasan

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we apply a new approach of the string theory to the real financial market. It is direct extension and application of the work [1] into prediction of prices. The models are constructed with an idea of prediction models based on the string invariants (PMBSI). The performance of PMBSI is compared to support vector machines (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) on an artificial and a financial time series. Brief overview of the results and analysis is given. The first model is ...

  10. Charge and Energy Stored in a Capacitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraftmakher, Yaakov

    2012-01-01

    Using a data-acquisition system, the charge and energy stored in a capacitor are measured and displayed during the charging/discharging process. The experiment is usable as a laboratory work and/or a lecture demonstration. (Contains 3 figures.)

  11. Charging a Capacitor with a Photovoltaic Module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Horacio Munguía; Maldonado, Rigoberto Franco; Navarro, Luis Barba

    2017-01-01

    Charging a capacitor with a photovoltaic module is an experiment which reveals a lot about the modules characteristics. It is customary to represent these characteristics with an equivalent circuit whose elements represent its physical parameters. The behavior of a photovoltaic module is very similar to that of a single cell but the electric…

  12. Effects of Radiation on Capacitor Dielectrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouquet, F. L.; Somoano, R. B.; Frickland, P. O.

    1987-01-01

    Data gathered on key design parameters. Report discusses study of electrical and mechanical properties of irradiated polymer dielectric materials. Data compiled for use by designers of high-energy-density capacitors that operate in presence of ionizing radiation. Study focused on polycarbonates, polyetheretherketones, polymethylpentenes, polyimides (including polyetherimide), polyolefins, polysulfones (including polyethersulfone and polyphenylsulfone), and polyvinylidene fluorides.

  13. Capacitor discharge process for welding braided cable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Rick D.

    1995-01-01

    A capacitor discharge process for welding a braided cable formed from a plurality of individual cable strands to a solid metallic electrically conductive member comprises the steps of: (a) preparing the electrically conductive member for welding by bevelling one of its end portions while leaving an ignition projection extending outwardly from the apex of the bevel; (b) clamping the electrically conductive member in a cathode fixture; (c) connecting the electrically conductive member clamped in the cathode fixture to a capacitor bank capable of being charged to a preselected voltage value; (d) preparing the braided cable for welding by wrapping one of its end portions with a metallic sheet to form a retaining ring operable to maintain the individual strands of the braided cable in fixed position within the retaining ring; (e) clamping the braided cable and the retaining ring as a unit in an anode fixture so that the wrapped end portion of the braided cable faces the ignition projection of the electrically conductive member; and (f) moving the cathode fixture towards the anode fixture until the ignition projection of the electrically conductive member contacts the end portion of the braided cable thereby allowing the capacitor bank to discharge through the electrically conductive member and through the braided cable and causing the electrically conductive member to be welded to the braided cable via capacitor discharge action.

  14. Capacitor Monitoring for Modular Multilevel Converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deng, Fujin; Liu, Dong; Wang, Yanbo

    2017-01-01

    ). The capacitor monitoring in each SM of the MMC is an important issue, which would affect the performance of the MMC. This paper proposed an effective monitoring method for the capacitance in each SM of the MMC. The proposed method reveals the relationship between the arm average capacitance and the capacitance...

  15. Modeling Dyadic Processes Using Hidden Markov Models: A Time Series Approach to Mother-Infant Interactions during Infant Immunization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stifter, Cynthia A.; Rovine, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The focus of the present longitudinal study, to examine mother-infant interaction during the administration of immunizations at 2 and 6?months of age, used hidden Markov modelling, a time series approach that produces latent states to describe how mothers and infants work together to bring the infant to a soothed state. Results revealed a…

  16. High energy, low inductance, high current fiberglass energy storage capacitor for the Atlas Machine Marx modules

    CERN Document Server

    Cooper, R A; Ennis, J B; Cochrane, J C; Reass, W A; Parsons, W M

    1999-01-01

    The Los Alamos National Laboratory's Atlas Marx design team envisioned a double ended plastic case 60 kV, 15 nH, 650 kA, energy storage capacitor. A design specification was established and submitted to various vendors. Maxwell Energy Products drew from its development of large fiberglass case, high voltage, low inductance "FASTCAP" capacitors manufactured for Maxwell Technologies' ACE II, ACE III and ACE IV machines. This paper discusses the LANL specification and Maxwell Energy Products' successful design, Model No. 39232, 34.1 mu F, 60 kV, 13*29*27", the only capacitor qualified by LANL for the 23 Mega Joule Atlas application. Maxwell's past experience in this type of capacitor is covered. The performance data is reviewed and the life test data compared to the original calculated design life. Challenges included Maxwell's "keep it simple " design goal which was maintained to minimize the effort required to create and manufacture a nearly 600 pound capacitor. (1 refs).

  17. Numerical investigation of phase change materials thermal capacitor for pipe flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurnia Jundika Candra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses the performance of phase change material as thermal capacitor. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD model is developed to take into account the conjugate heat transfer between water as the heat transfer fluid (HTF and PCM as thermal capacitor. A pulsating inlet temperature with constant inlet velocity is prescribed to represent temperature variation. The performance of thermal capacitor is evaluated by closely monitoring outlet temperature and comparing it with inlet temperature to examine the reduction in temperature fluctuation. To intensify heat transfer between HTF and PCM, extended surfaces (fins are installed on PCM side. The results indicate that PCM thermal capacitor can reduce temperature fluctuation by ∼ 1 °C. This reduction can be improved further when extended surface is installed with ∼ 1.5 °C reduction in temperature fluctuation is achieved. Moreover, it is found that the maximum temperature is delayed at the outlet due to slow conjugate heat transfer between HTF and PCM. Inlet velocity is found to have considerable influence of the temperature fluctuation reduction: Slower inlet velocity results in a better temperature fluctuation reduction. This study is expected to serve as a guideline in designing PCM-based thermal capacitor.

  18. Harmonic regression of Landsat time series for modeling attributes from national forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Barry T.; Knight, Joseph F.; McRoberts, Ronald E.

    2018-03-01

    Imagery from the Landsat Program has been used frequently as a source of auxiliary data for modeling land cover, as well as a variety of attributes associated with tree cover. With ready access to all scenes in the archive since 2008 due to the USGS Landsat Data Policy, new approaches to deriving such auxiliary data from dense Landsat time series are required. Several methods have previously been developed for use with finer temporal resolution imagery (e.g. AVHRR and MODIS), including image compositing and harmonic regression using Fourier series. The manuscript presents a study, using Minnesota, USA during the years 2009-2013 as the study area and timeframe. The study examined the relative predictive power of land cover models, in particular those related to tree cover, using predictor variables based solely on composite imagery versus those using estimated harmonic regression coefficients. The study used two common non-parametric modeling approaches (i.e. k-nearest neighbors and random forests) for fitting classification and regression models of multiple attributes measured on USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis plots using all available Landsat imagery for the study area and timeframe. The estimated Fourier coefficients developed by harmonic regression of tasseled cap transformation time series data were shown to be correlated with land cover, including tree cover. Regression models using estimated Fourier coefficients as predictor variables showed a two- to threefold increase in explained variance for a small set of continuous response variables, relative to comparable models using monthly image composites. Similarly, the overall accuracies of classification models using the estimated Fourier coefficients were approximately 10-20 percentage points higher than the models using the image composites, with corresponding individual class accuracies between six and 45 percentage points higher.

  19. Creation and evaluation of a database of renewable production time series and other data for energy system modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janker, Karl Albert

    2015-01-01

    This thesis describes a model which generates renewable power generation time series as input data for energy system models. The focus is on photovoltaic systems and wind turbines. The basis is a high resolution global raster data set of weather data for many years. This data is validated, corrected and preprocessed. The composition of the hourly generation data is done via simulation of the respective technology. The generated time series are aggregated for different regions and are validated against historical production time series.

  20. Modeling of plasma chemistry in a corona streamer pulse series in air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowakowska, H.; Stanco, J.; Dors, M.; Mizeraczyk, J.

    2002-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyse the chemistry in air treated by a series of corona discharge streamers. Attention is focused on the conversion of ozone and nitrogen oxides. In the model it is assumed that the streamer head of relatively small geometrical dimensions propagates from the anode to the cathode, leaving the streamer channel behind. Any elemental gas volume in the streamer path is subjected first to the conditions of the streamer head, and next to those of the streamer channel. The kinetics of plasma-chemical processes occurring in the gas is modeled numerically for a single streamer and a series of streamers. The temporal evolution of 25 chemical compounds initially present or produced in air is calculated. (author)